QB JJ McCarthy

McCarthy will make his NFL debut one season late, after tearing his meniscus in the preseason last year. The former first-round pick out of Michigan, McCarthy has incredible weapons around him to help him excel. With no stats to go off for McCarthy last season, we can dive into some Vikings team offence stats to try to determine an edge. Looking at the Vikings from last season, outside of McCarthy for Darnold, not much has changed. In fact, the offence improved as they revamped their interior offensive line by adding Ryan Kelly and first-round pick Donovan Jackson. The Bears had a very zone-heavy defence last year, running that coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL. However, that was under Matt Eberflus, who joined the Dallas Cowboys as the defensive coordinator. Now, the Bears have Dennis Allen as their defensive coordinator, who was previously the head coach of the New Orleans Saints. The Saints last year ran the 14th most man coverage, and the fourth-most Cover 2. Last season, the Vikings had the second-highest yards per attempt (8.92) against man coverage, and the third-highest yards per attempt (9.22) against Cover 2. So, if Dennis Allen brings over the same type of defensive philosophy, we can assume the Vikings offence should match up well against the Bears, resulting in a successful NFL debut for JJ McCarthy. However, in his first NFL game, under the bright lights on Monday Night Football, it's probably safest to watch how he does before placing a bet on him.

Suggested pick:

Pass

 

RB Aaron Jones

Surprisingly, Aaron Jones had his best season on the ground in his career at age 29, rushing for 1,138 yards on 255 rush attempts, with five TDs. He has always been a bit better as a receiving back, racking in 408 rushing yards on 51 receptions. Now with Jordan Mason in town, we might see a little bit of a decline for him on the ground. But, probably not this week, as the Bears allowed the second-most rushing yards (119.82) to opposing RBs last season. In Week 12 last season, Jones had 106 rushing yards on 22 rush attempts, and in Week 15, he had 86 rushing yards on 18 rush attempts, scoring one TD in each game. The Bears did not really struggle in zone/man-gap scheme, allowing 4.88 and 4.84 yards per carry, respectively. So, not really an edge there. However, through the air is where we can attack Jones. Last season, Jones averaged 23.3 receiving yards per game. With Mason now in town, Jones will lose rushing snaps, but will keep his passing-down work. But what is most impressive is that Jones has recorded 20+ receiving yards against the Bears in every game against them since 2021 (eight games). That includes last season when he had 23 and 20 receiving yards on only three and two receptions.

Suggested pick:

Aaron Jones o16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

RB Jordan Mason

We talked about Mason quite a bit in the Jones write-up, but I'm really expecting to see Mason utilized in goal-line and short-yardage situations. In his audition last season with the 49ers, Mason thrived, finishing with a career high in attempts (153) and rushing yards (789). Now he goes to the Vikings who have a revamped offensive line, against a Week 1 opponent who struggled against opposing RBs. The Bears allowed the most rushing TDs to opposing RBs last season (1.06) per game. And if they want to protect their rookie QB as much as possible, he should see more work than we think, especially on the goal-line.

Suggested Pick:

Jordan Mason TD (+165)

 

WR Justin Jefferson

What really is there to say about Justin Jefferson? He just remains a top-tier WR year over year. He finished last season with 1,533 receiving yards on 103 receptions and 10 TDs. However, Chicago was one of the few teams to actually keep him somewhat contained last year. Jefferson caught just two of his five targets for 27 receiving yards in Week 12, and seven of his 13 for 73 receiving yards in Week 15. That's an average of just 50 receiving yards against the Bears last season. By his standards, that's underwhelming. If we're correct on our prediction that the Bears will run a similar defence to the Saints from last season, then, we should look into how Jefferson did against Cover 2 last season. Well, you guessed it, Jefferson had the third most yards, but the highest yards per route run (2.83) against Cover 2 last season. Jefferson lines up on the outside 78% of the time and will often draw the Jaylon Johnson matchup. He is regarded as one of the best CBs in the league and showed that to end last year. Over the final seven games of the season, Johnson allowed just 148 receiving yards, which averages out to 21.1 per game. Those are two games against Jefferson and the Vikings. I never want to fade one of the best WRs in the league, but he might struggle in this matchup. What we could see happening though, is the Vikings making an effort to get this McCarthy/Jefferson chemistry going, but we can't imagine they're going to trust him to throw the ball deep just yet, especially against this Bears pass defence that allowed the ninth fewest receiving yards to opposing WRs last year. Jefferson's longest reception against the Bears last season went for 20 and 21 yards.

Suggested pick:

Justin Jefferson u26.5 longest reception (-110)

 

WR Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen is finally home, returning to Minnesota after spending the previous two seasons in Carolina. He performed well with the Panthers last season, earning the trust of young QB Bryce Young. Thielen caught 48 balls last season, good for 615 receiving yards and five TDs. Thielen lined up in the slot 74.6% of the time last season, which doesn't bode well for him in this matchup. The Bears allowed the ninth fewest yards per game (68.6) to opposing slot WRs last year, and Thielen will have to go up against Kyler Gordon. Gordon allowed 103 receiving yards over the final four games of the season, but 77 of those yards came after the catch. So if the 25-year-old CB can just keep up with the 35-year-old WR, Thielen's yardage could be down. We're a little worried about Thielen being a safety net for McCarthy, but it would be in the short area of the field, where hopefully Gordon could keep his YAC down. Not to mention, Thielen has only been there for a few weeks now, could take some time for the two to start gelling.

Suggested pick:

Adam Thielen u33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE TJ Hockenson

Now here is the guy *in a Cris Collinsworth voice* we think is going to have the early chemistry with McCarthy. Rookie QBs typically like to attack the short areas of the field, as they get acclimated to facing NFL defences, and those are the easier passes to complete. Which brings us to TJ Hockenson, who, unlike Thielen, has been in camp working with McCarthy all summer. Last season, Hockenson had 455 receiving yards on 41 receptions with five TDs in just 10 games. Going back to rookie QBs liking to make the shorter, easier passes early on lines up with Hockenson, as he had a 9.2 aDoT, which is the lowest of all the Vikings receivers. Hockenson lined up mostly inline 55.9% of his routes last season, which is the perfect matchup for the Bears, as they allowed the most receiving yards (42.1) per game to inline receivers, as well as the sixth most (59.5) receiving yards to TEs last season. All of this lines up to a big Hockenson game.

Suggested pick:

TJ Hockenson o42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams had flashes of brilliance in his rookie season, posting a respectable 3,541 passing yards, 20 TDs and 6 INTs, while completing 62.5% of his passes and adding 489 rushing yards on 81 attempts. The Vikings were a very zone-heavy team, running the coverage 73.7% of the time. They ran Cover 2 and Cover 4 at a top-10 rate last season under Brian Flores. While they were regarded as one of the top defences in the league last year, opposing teams had success throwing on them. Minnesota allowed the second most completions (24.35), the most pass attempts (37.35) and the fourth-most passing yards (261.53) per game last season. Against the Vikings last year, Williams had a very successful Week 12, going 32/47 for 340 passing yards and two TDs. However, he wasn't as fortunate in Week 15, going 18/31 for 191 passing yards and one TD. Looking into the most-run coverages by the Vikings, Williams had the most dropbacks of any QB against Cover 2, but had the third-fewest yards per attempt (6.18). So, by the numbers, that's not great. Even against Cover 4, Williams had the 11th fewest yards per attempt (6.94). So, it's difficult to gauge what to play in terms of passing for Williams, who has a juicy matchup, but does not do well against the most common coverages. However, let's look at what he can do with his legs. Last season, Williams finished with the seventh most rushing yards in the NFL, averaging 28.8 per game. But the Vikings were the best at stopping opposing QBs on the ground, averaging just 9.41 yards per game. So again, not great for Caleb. But if you dive into who they actually played, they faced just one running QB, Kyler Murray, who had 44 rushing yards. To name a few of the other QBs they faced: Jared Goff x2, Mac Jones, Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers – not necessarily all-star running QBs. In a Ben Johnson offence, against a Vikings team that pressured at a 38.8% of their dropbacks, could result in Williams needing to escape the pocket and get the yards with his feet, rather than through the air.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams o24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

RB D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift's first year in Chicago was about on par with his career, just kind of mid. He finished with 959 rushing yards on 253 attempts for a 3.8 yards per carry, adding 6 TDs. Through the air, Swift had 386 receiving yards on 42 receptions. Like, decent, but nothing jumps off the page as a guy who you can trust night in and night out. However, he is all the Bears have right now, as Roschon Johnson is likely out for this matchup and Kyle Monangai – a rookie – isn't projected to have a big role. So Swift should be a workhorse in this matchup. Against the Vikings last season, Swift went 13 for 30 in his first matchup and 19 for 79 in his second. But, to be fair, the Vikings had an outstanding rush defence, allowing the sixth fewest (79.2) rushing yards to opposing RBs per game. Most of their success on the ground was due to the heavy zone concept run defence they played, ranking second-highest in the league. Unfortunately for Swift, he was significantly worse against zone, having just a 3.39 yards per carry. So while he might not be great efficiency-wise, he's all they've got and will be heavily utilized in this matchup.

Suggested pick:

D'Andre Swift o13.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)

 

WR DJ Moore

DJ Moore might be the most underrated receiver in the league. Year after year, nobody gets too excited about him, but he continues to churn out successful seasons after successful ones. Last year, Moore finished with a somewhat disappointing season, bringing in 98 receptions but only 966 receiving yards. The volume is great, but the fact we saw his yards per reception dip below 10 for the first time in his seven-year NFL career. Against the Vikings last season, Moore was surprisingly efficient, corralling all 15 of his targets for 152 receiving yards and one TD. With the Vikings running the third most zone and Cover 2, Moore ran the fourth most routes against Cover 2, yet struggled with the 56th most yards per route run (1.36). Moore lined up all over the field, so he should see a lot of different looks from various CBs. However, Moore got a significant boost against zone coverage last year, catching 77.8% of his targets, to just 51.4% against man coverage. With that in mind, as well as Moore's perfect catch rate against the Vikings last season, and how he had at least six receptions in his last eight games, Moore should be a reliable option for Williams over the middle.

Suggested pick:

DJ Moore o5.5 Receptions (+110)

 

WR Rome Odunze

Entering his second year, Rome Odunze looks to have a massive breakout year in this new Ben Johnson offence. In fact, Johnson has spoken very highly of Odunze during this offseason, praising him for being a prototypical X receiver, saying he has really impressed in camp, especially in 1-on-1 matchups. X receivers line up on the outside, opposite of where the TE lines up, good for go-routes on the weak side of the formation. With that in mind, Odunze should lineup out wide even more than the 64.4% he did last season. Against zone coverage last season, Odunze had the fewest receptions on the Bears, yet led the team with 13.9 yards per reception. In fact, Odunze led the entire Bears offence in all receiving categories with a 13.6. So, we're going to go ahead and listen to the head coach when he says he's a prototypical X, and take his word over in receiving yards for a guy who led the team in yards per catch. Not to mention, the Vikings defence allowed the second most (183.2) yards per game to opposing WRs, and the second most to outside WRs.

Suggested pick:

Rome Odunze 50+ Receiving Yards (-125)

 

TE Colston Loveland

The Bears see something in Colston Loveland, as they drafted him at the 10th overall pick in this past draft. It typically takes rookie TEs a while to get acclimated in an NFL offence, and now he'll have to battle it out with another decent receiving TE option in Cole Kmet. Last season, Kmet earned just a 12.2% target share. So, Williams didn't really target the TE option. However, with Ben Johnson now stepping in, we should see the TE position being utilized in the Bears' offence, as Sam LaPorta earned a 20.6% target share in 2024. The Vikings allowed middle-of-the-pack in terms of TE targets per game (7) and allowed the 11th most targets (61) to inline receivers. Oftentimes in Week 1, it's best to just trust the sportsbook when looking into who might perform the best. And considering Loveland's receiving yard line is 28.5 to Kmet's 10.5, Vegas is projecting Loveland will get more work. So, we will listen to them!

 

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland o2.5 Receptions (-150)

This should be a fascinating game. The Vikings have a high-flying offence under O'Connell, while Johnson was one of the most sought-after head coaches this offseason. This game deserves to be a pick-em, but with the Bears being at home, along with the Vikings rocking with a rookie QB, it might just be too big a spot to expect McCarthy to walk away with the victory under the bright lights of Monday Night Football.

 

Score - Bears 24 - Vikings 20

Pick - Bears ML

Lean - Over 43.5

Anytime Touchdown Picks

 

Best Pick: (Vikings) Jordan Mason (+165)

We picked Mason for our TD above, but to reiterate, if Mason is going to be the goal-line back for the Vikings, against a Bears defence that allowed the most rushing TDs to opposing RBs, this seems like a fantastic line to take.

 

Best Pick: (Bears) Rome Odunze (+190)

If Johnson is going to use Odunze as an X, he should get multiple shots down the field to bring in a TD, against a Vikings defence that allowed over 1 TD to WRs per game last year.

 

1st Touchdown Picks

 

Longshot: (Vikings) TJ Hockenson First TD (+1000)

These are long shots, but I feel we're getting a steal here on Hockenson. If he's going to be the safety net over the middle for McCarthy, he could look to hit him on a stick route if they get into the red zone, but can't exactly punch it in on the goal line.

 

Longshot: (Bears) D'Andre Swift First TD (+700)

Again, this should be self-explanatory, as Swift will handle mostly all of the running back work, especially early, with Kyle Monangai as the only other back that would threaten to take work away from Swift.

Parlay 1: (Vikings) +250 odds on bet365

Aaron Jones 2+ Receptions

TJ Hockenson 5+ Receptions

TJ Hockenson 40+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 2: (Bears) +240 odds on bet365

D'Andre Swift 10+ Rushing Attempts

DJ Moore 5+ Receptions

Rome Odunze 50+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 3: (Longshot) +1600 odds on bet365

Jordan Mason TD

TJ Hockenson 60+ Receiving Yards

Rome Odunze 60+ Receiving Yards

QB Dak Prescott

Prescott enters this matchup with plenty to prove after suffering a season-ending injury in Week 8 last year. Unfortunately, we did not get to see Prescott face off against the Eagles last season, so we don't have tape on how he matches up against a Vic Fangio defence Fangio's defensive philosophy underemphasizes two-high safety shells and forcing quarterbacks to take the underneath throws. Prescott has historically thrived when able to diagnose coverages pre-snap, but Fangio-style defences can muddy those reads and force quarterbacks into hesitation Last season, Philadelphia ran man coverage on 25.8% of snaps — 17th-most in the league — and Prescott has been noticeably less efficient against man than zone last season. Against man in 2024, his completion rate dipped to 48.1% (compared to 73.7% vs. zone). However, his yards per attempt jumped from 6.74 yards against zone to 8.10 against man The Eagles allowed the second-fewest passing yards (192.1) per game last season. However, due to often leading, the Eagles were middle of the pack in terms of pass attempts (31.9) last season With that in mind, as well as the Cowboys rocking with Javonte Williams as their starting running back, Dak should be throwing often in an attempt to get the Cowboys out of their inevitable deficit.

Suggested Pick:
Dak Prescott o36.5 Pass Attempts (-115)

 

RB Javonte Williams

This might be one of the worst running back rooms in the entire league. However, the same sentiment was said last season, and this offence still produced a 1,000 rusher in Rico Dowdle. Could they find the same in Javonte Williams? Javonte tore his ACL in 2022, and to be honest, many expected him to have that big bounce back season in 2024, but that didn't happen. He finished with 513 rushing yards on 139 rush attempts with four TDs. That still earned him a contract to be the featured back for the Cowboys, but you would have liked to see more. However, this means he'll be on a short leash, especially with rookie Jaydon Blue now in the mix. But he should be given an early opportunity to earn the starting role this week against the Eagles. Last season, Philadelphia ran a zone concept run defence 47.7% of the time, which was the 12th highest in the NFL. Javonte didn't really stand out against either coverage, averaging a disappointing 3.74 yards per attempt. However, now he's going up against the Eagles' run defence, which allowed the seventh fewest rush attempts (19.6) and (79.8) rushing yards per game last season. In this game, we expect the Cowboys to be trailing more than they're leading, which wouldn't fully keep Javonte off the field, but would certainly limit his carries. Not to mention, seeing what they have early on in rookie Blue.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams u10.5 Rushing Attempts (-150)

 

WR CeeDee Lamb

Lamb remains the centrepiece of this passing attack, and for good reason. He was one of only four receivers to surpass 1,500 yards in 2024, demonstrating a lethal ability to separate against both man and zone coverage, despite playing most of the season without Dak Prescott. The challenge this week lies in the Eagles’ revamped secondary, with a pair of second-year corners, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. They also lined up in both man and zone at the 17th highest rate. However, the Eagles led the NFL in Cover 6 last season, running that 17.4% of the time and were third in Cover 4, running that 19.5% of their defensive plays. Lamb caught 12 of his 15 targets against Cover 6 last season, going for 107 receiving yards for 7.13 yards per target. Against Cover 4, Lamb caught 17 of his 26 targets, but only for 89 yards and 3.42 yards per target – not really a promising sign for the star receiver.Lamb lines up pretty well all over the field, but he’s especially dangerous in the slot, where Dallas moves him around to exploit mismatches. He projects to lineup against DeJean. DeJean really came along as the season rolled on. Over the final three games of the regular season, DeJean allowed just 18.3 receiving yards and 2.7 receptions per game. When CeeDee matched up against the Eagles in Week 10, the Eagles held Lamb to six receptions on 10 targets for just 21 receiving yards. With that in mind, we don't really want to advise taking an over on Lamb, but also, it's scary taking his unders. So I've got a wild one for you. Lamb to go over 0.5 rushing yards.It's a risky pick, but hear me out. Lamb struggled in a lot of the statistical categories in which the Eagles excel. He struggled with only 21 receiving yards in his lone appearance against the Eagles last year, so now, with his projected CB matchup one more year into his development, we might see similar production from last season. However, that doesn't mean they're going to completely cut out Lamb from the offence. If they want a chance to win, the Cowboys will need to get creative with how they use Lamb if he's going to get bottled up in the passing game, as he was last year. In Week 1 of last year, Lamb had three rush attempts for 25 yards. Against the Eagles last year, Lamb had one rush attempt for three yards. He also had nine games with a rush attempt/rushing yard in the 15 games he played. Let's not forget the questionable running back play heading into the season. If they struggle out of the gate, we could see Lamb get a rush attempt early on in this game if they can't get him open in the passing game.

Suggested pick:

CeeDee Lamb o0.5 Rushing Yard (+115)

 

WR George Pickens

In line with the CeeDee narrative, where they might put an emphasis on shutting him down, we have an opportunity for George Pickens. The Cowboys made one of the biggest splashes this offseason by adding George Pickens from Pittsburgh, pairing him with Lamb to give Dak Prescott a true vertical threat.  Pickens thrived last season against man coverages, averaging 16.4 yards per reception, but he was inconsistent versus zone coverages, where his contested-catch percentage drops to seven percent when switching coverages. However, they're going to want to get their new shiny toy acclimated in the offence. Pickens will likely draw a lot of the Mitchell matchup. Mitchell was a shutdown corner last year, mainly playing on the outside. However, when Lamb moves to the outside, Mitchell will likely cover him, leaving Pickens on Ringo. But even if Lamb is in the slot, Mitchell plays 96% on the right. Whereas Pickens played 44% on the left and 31% on the right. If they want to get Pickens away from the Mitchell matchup, they can just flip him to the opposite side of the field, which will, in turn, free him up more.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens 50+ Receiving Yards (-150)

 

TE Jake Ferguson

Ferguson's Week 1 matchup is among the toughest possible. Philadelphia was elite against tight ends in 2024, allowing just 34.8 receiving yards on four receptions to the position, the lowest in the league. Despite being a TE, Ferguson lines up mostly in the slot. Against slot/inline receivers, the Eagles allowed the fifth fewest yards per game (87.4). Last season against the Eagles, Ferguson struggled yardage-wise. In Week 10, he caught all four of his targets but for just 24 receiving yards. And in Week 17, Ferguson caught both of his targets for 18 receiving yards. So, it shouldn't be a great game for Ferguson, especially when you consider that Pickens now enters the picture and becomes the second option for Prescott.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson u33.5 receiving yards (-110)

QB Jalen Hurts

The reigning Super Bowl MVP, Jalen Hurts, steps back onto the field looking to defend his crown. Last season against the Cowboys, Hurts appeared in just one game, throwing for 202 yards, two passing touchdowns, and adding 56 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Hurts had so much success (going 14 for 20) against Dallas last season because of his ability to neutralize their heavy man coverage looks as a running QB. The Cowboys ran the 12th most man coverage (31.2%) last season, with Hurts averaging 12.2 yards per scramble against man coverage.  Through the air, Hurts was middle of the pack against man coverage, averaging 67.4 passing yards per game. However, he is much more efficient against the coverage, completing 67% of his passes, with the third-highest yards per attempt (9.36) in the league last season. After the Parsons trade, the Cowboys are going to have a much tougher time on defence containing Hurts in the pocket, likely having to send a spy to be able to contain him. However, even with Parsons last season, the Cowboys struggled to contain opposing QBs, as they allowed the most rushing yards to QBs per game, averaging 32.5 per game.

Suggested pick:
Jalen Hurts o36.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

RB Saquon Barkley

What is there even to say about Saquon after his first year in Philadelphia? The latest 2K rusher is back, looking to defend his rushing title. His first test at holding that title is against the Cowboys, a team he has traditionally done damage against. In 12 games against Dallas, Barkley has 814 rushing yards on 165 rush attempts, good for a 4.93 yards per carry. Last season against the Cowboys, Saquon struggled in the first game, rushing for just 66 yards on 14 attempts. In his second game, however, Saquon rushed 31 times for 167 rushing yards. Barkley was basically matchup proof last season, averaging 5.48 yards per carry against zone concept and 6.38 yards per carry against man/gap. And, well, the Cowboys were pretty much the same, as despite running much more zone than man, their averages were not far off (4.67 to 4.75). Dallas last season was by no means an intimidating rush defence. They finished middle of the pack, averaging 94.7 yards per game. However, one area where Saquon should have a massive advantage is with his breakaway speed. Last season, Barkley finished fourth in percentage of runs to go 15+ yards among players with over 100 rush attempts (7.2%). Whereas the Cowboys allowed the third-highest percentage of runs to go 15+ yards (6.4%). Now, these aren't high percentages by any means, but the numbers show Saquon can be that player and is going up against one of the teams that allowed the most last season. Pair that up and I think we've got a prop to bet on!

Suggested pick:

Saquon Barkley o21.5 Longest Rush Attmept (-120)

 

WR AJ Brown

AJ Brown has historically found success against the Dallas Cowboys, and that trend continued last season. In Week 10, Brown caught five of his seven targets for 109 receiving yards. However, he struggled in Week 17, but that was without Jalen Hurts, so we can forgive him for that. Brown was one of the best receivers in the league against man coverage last season, earning a 92.9 PFF grade, catching 31 of his 42 targets for 478 receiving yards and five touchdowns against the coverage. The Cowboys run the seventh-most press looks in the NFL, which Brown averaged 3.1 yards per route run against press coverage. The 6-foot-1 receiver lines up on both sides of the outside and is projected to draw the DaRon Bland matchup. Bland was injured to start the year, but came back and wasn't his normal self. He allowed 30 receptions on 45 targets for 311 receiving yards in only seven games, one of which included a six-reception for 47 yards and one TD game against the Washington Commanders. The new defensive coordinator, Matt Eberflus, brings a new defensive scheme for the Cowboys. Eberflus runs a heavy Cover 3 scheme. Brown played four teams last season that were top 10 in Cover 3, and he finished with over 90 yards in each of those games. With that being said, we think Brown should have a big opening day.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown 70+ Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR DeVonta Smith

Smith took on a different role last season where he became the primary slot receiver for the Eagles. He thrived in that role, scoring the most TDs in his career. Brown often takes a lot of the attention away from Smith, freeing him up for multiple receptions. Smith didn't have a great game against the Cowboys last season, tallying just two receptions and 14 yards; however, he redeemed himself in Week 17, catching all six of his targets for 120 receiving yards and two TDs. However, that was without Jalen Hurts. As mentioned, Smith lined up in the slot 56% of the time and projects to draw the Kaiir Elam assignment. Elam struggled down the stretch of last season, allowing a 72% catch rate and 12.8 yards per reception.  Now with Eberflus under the helm, the Cowboys project to run much more zone coverage, gives Smith a boost in his catch rate, going from 77.78% against man to 85.7% against zone.  With that catch rate, Smith would need just six targets to catch his line of five receptions. Smith saw six targets in 10 of 13 games last season, and will likely see that volume again as he enters the new year fully healthy.

Suggested pick:

DeVonta Smith o4.5 Receptions (+110)

 

TE Dallas Goedert

It's been relatively quiet around Goedert this offseason. Now at 30, we could start seeing a decline in his play, and that could start off in Week 1 here against the Cowboys. Last season, Dallas allowed the seventh fewest receiving yards (41.7) per game to TEs. However, they were dead last in receptions allowed to the position, averaging just 3.82 per game. Against the Cowboys last season, Goedert had just two receptions on three targets for 25 yards in Week 10, and did not play in their Week 17 bout. Goedert lined up inline 45.7% of the time. Against inline receivers last season, the Cowboys allowed just three targets and 23.5 receiving yards per game. That should be enough to force him to struggle in this matchup. In 2024, when Goedert played with Brown and Smith, he went under his receiving yards line in three of four games, averaging 29.3 yards per game.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert u36.5 receiving yards (-110)

After the Micah Parsons trade, everybody is quick to write the Cowboys off. I'm a little more bullish on Dallas coming into this season, as I believe their offence is going to be better than people think. However, they're going up against the defending Super Bowl Champions. This might be too tough a task for the Cowboys to shock the world on opening night.

Eagles 31 - Cowboys 21
Pick - Over 47.5
Lean - Eagles -6.5

Anytime TD

AJ Brown (+137)

Going back to Brown's big games against Cover 3, he scored at least one touchdown in each of those games, and added another one in Week 17 against the Cowboys last season.

George Pickens TD (+225)

With everything we said about Lamb potentially being locked down in this matchup, that will allow things to open up for their shiny new deep threat in George Pickens to get on the board early in his Cowboys career.

First TD Scorer:

 

Jalen Hurts First TD (+400)

I mean, this one seems pretty easy to predict, no? The tush push was not banned, and the Eagles will almost certainly continue to use it to their advantage. We also side with Hurts over Saquon because Barkley did not score against the Cowboys last season, while Hurts did.

Parlay 1: +240 odds on bet365
Dak Prescott 225+ Passing Yards
Javonte Williams u10.5 Rush Attempts
George Pickens 50+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: +300 odds on bet365
Philadelphia Eagles ML
Jalen Hurts TD
AJ Brown 70+ Receiving Yards

QB Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes enters the 2025 season opener against the Chargers with more questions than usual. He’s coming off career lows across several passing categories: 6.8 YPA, 3928 passing yards, and only 26 TD passes, his lowest mark since 2019 when he missed time with injury. His aDOT has remained at 6.7 yards or shorter for the third straight season, a clear sign of Kansas City leaning on a shorter passing attack rather than explosive vertical shots. Mahomes averaged just 1.63 TD passes per game last season, down from the 37+ TD totals he put up in four of his first five years as a starter. Over the last two seasons combined, he’s managed only 53 passing TDs, a significant dip from his prime production years. The supporting cast is also in transition. With Rashee Rice suspended, rookie Xavier Worthy is expected to operate as Mahomes’ top wide receiver option. Worthy’s speed provides a vertical threat, but Week 1 chemistry between a rookie WR and Mahomes will be tested against a disciplined secondary. Tight end Travis Kelce remains his most trusted option, but coverage attention will be heavy. Adding to the challenge, the Chargers’ defense under Defensive Coordinator Jesse Minter is one of the most adaptable in the league. Minter’s scheme focuses on disguise and post-snap rotation, constantly forcing QBs to hold the ball longer.  Safeties like Derwin James allow Minter the freedom to roll coverages late or send simulated pressures and blitzes designed to muddy Mahomes’ reads. The Chargers were in zone defense under Minter in 77.7% of their snaps a year ago, the 4th most in the NFL. Against zone defenses, Mahomes had only a 6.2 aDOT as a QB, the 5th lowest in the NFL among QBs with at least 100 pass attempts.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 35.5 Yard Longest Completion (-120)

 

RB Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco struggled to regain his explosiveness after returning from a mid-September fibula fracture. In 2023, he averaged 4.36 yards per carry (YPC) and 2.60 yards after contact per attempt (YACO/ATT), with an explosive run rate of 4.5% across 18 games (postseason included). Last year, those numbers dipped significantly to 3.61 YPC, 1.75 YACO/ATT, and a 1.0% explosive rate over 10 games. The bounce-back simply wasn’t there. Despite his decline, the Chiefs made minimal change to the backfield in the offseason. They added Elijah Mitchell and Kareem Hunt on modest guaranteed deals and drafted Brashard Smith only in the final round, which is signaling strong confidence in Pacheco to regain his top-down role in 2025. Now, the matchup against the Chargers presents a tough test. Los Angeles allowed just 4.7 yards per carry to opponents in 2024, one of the best marks in the league. They surrendered 1,997 rushing yards total (117.5 per game) last season. On top of that, they were stingy with allowing touchdowns, allowing just 0.41 rushing TDs per game, the second-fewest in the NFL. Perhapes the most importantly here is the fact that the Chargers allowed just 1.54 yards before contact per attempt last year, which was the 11th highest in the NFL. That means Pacheco figures to face a defense that limits efficiency on the ground. With that in mind, I do like the Chiefs to try and work him often to get his legs back under him.

Suggested Play:
‘O' 11.5 Rush Attempts (-140)

WR Xavier Worthy

Rookie Xavier Worthy steps into the WR1 role for Kansas City while Rashee Rice serves a six-game suspension. Worthy already flashed strong production in Rice’s absence late last year, leading the NFL in postseason receiving yards (287) and receiving TDs (3). He closed the season on a streak of 8 straight games with 5+ receptions and 10 straight with 41+ receiving yards, proving he could handle steady volume in the Chiefs’ passing game. The Chargers represent a unique Week 1 challenge. Under Jesse Minter, Los Angeles leaned heavily on zone concepts, as they played zone coverage on 79.4% of pass snaps in 2024, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Against zone looks, Worthy averaged 1.32 yards per route run (YPRR) and a 0.17 targets per route run (TPRR). In two matchups with the Chargers last season, he managed 3/73/1 and 5/41, showing he can contribute both as a vertical threat and a short-yardage option. His usage also highlights how Kansas City will feature him. Worthy lined up 62% of snaps out wide and 36% in the slot. Despite a modest 10.8 yards per catch, he was targeted deep often, tying for the 19th-most targets of 20+ yards league-wide. Efficiency was an issue, as he caught just 7 of 21 deep targets, one of the lowest conversion rates in that group. Much of his production instead came on short passes: 39 receptions in the 0–9 yard range and 28 behind the line of scrimmage. What kept him dangerous was his ability after the catch, as his 6.7 yards after catch per reception ranked 12th among 106 WRs with 40+ targets. Against a defense that floods the field with zone looks, Worthy should again see a steady diet of quick hitters and manufactured touches to get a playmaker in space. That raises his floor in receptions even if the efficiency downfield doesn’t pop right away.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (–120)

 

WR Hollywood Brown

Hollywood Brown’s debut year in Kansas City was derailed almost immediately by a shoulder injury, leaving him with just 14 receptions for 141 yards over five total appearances, including the postseason. Across six NFL seasons, he’s managed to clear 769 receiving yards only once, despite logging 100 or more targets in four different campaigns. Durability and efficiency have both been recurring concerns. Heading into 2025, he’ll be given another opportunity to carve out a role. With Rashee Rice suspended, Brown is expected to open the season as a starting wideout opposite rookie Xavier Worthy. Andy Reid recently emphasized Brown’s full participation in camp, saying he’s practiced without limitation and looks ready to go for Week 1. The Chargers’ secondary will make Brown’s return a difficult test. Last year, Los Angeles held opposing wide receivers to 147.4 receiving yards per game, which ranked right around league average, but their coverage approach was notable. They leaned on zone coverage nearly 80% of the time (79.4%, fourth-highest in the NFL), forcing offenses to string together short completions rather than relying on deep shots. That style doesn’t align perfectly with Brown’s profile, as his value historically comes from stretching the field vertically. We even saw last year that the Chiefs couldn't find Brown deep too often, as he had just a 8.1 aDOT.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 19.5 Longest Reception (-120)

TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce enters what could be his 13th and final season, looking to rebound after one of the least productive years of his career. In 2024, he totaled 823 receiving yards and just 3 touchdowns, both 11-year lows. His touchdown efficiency also collapsed after averaging a 6.2% TD rate during his first six seasons with Patrick Mahomes, that number slipped to just 2.3% last year. A big factor in the sluggish campaign was his lack of involvement early. In the first three weeks of the season, with wideout Rashee Rice healthy and commanding targets, Kelce averaged just four targets per game, a decline from the steady high-volume role he’s held for most of his career. Once his usage stabilized, his production improved, suggesting the downturn was more circumstantial than anything else. Kelce also showed last year that he can still produce against the Chargers specifically, finishing with stat lines of 7/89 and 5/45 in their two meetings. With his chemistry with Mahomes intact and the fact that the Chiefs will still be without Rice to start the year, Kelce projects as a reliable option to command steady volume in the season opener.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 5.5 Receptions (–120)

QB Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert enters Week 1 without his cornerstone left tackle, Rashawn Slater, who will miss the season after tearing his patellar tendon in August. Protection was already a concern, as Herbert faced pressure on 28.1% of his dropbacks last season, managing just a 0.7% completion percentage over expectation when pressured. Even so, he delivered one of his most efficient campaigns despite playing through multiple injuries, setting career bests in yards per attempt (7.7), interception rate (0.6%), and passer rating (101.7), though his production dipped to a career-low 227.6 passing yards per game. Against Kansas City, the numbers have been modest — he threw for 179 yards/1 TD and 213 yards/1 TD in two 2024 meetings, but there’s reason to think he can adjust. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense leaned on two-high safety looks at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and Herbert was efficient against those shells, averaging 7.35 YPA, nearly identical to his season-long average. Beyond structure, the Chargers’ passing environment has improved. The team brought back Keenan Allen, added rookie Tre Harris, and drafted Ladd McConkey, who has the tools to quickly become a featured option. Rookie RB Omarion Hampton also brings pass-catching ability, which should give Herbert more outlets on underneath routes, critical if Najee Harris is limited and if Herbert is forced to get the ball out quickly behind a weakened offensive line. Herbert himself has expressed a willingness to use his legs more after posting career highs in 69 carries and 306 rushing yards last season, which could help extend drives and keep volume steady. While international openers and Week 1 games can sometimes produce unpredictable outcomes, Herbert’s supporting cast and efficiency against two-high coverage suggest a game plan built on quick strikes and sustained completions.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 20.5 Pass Completions (–106)

 

RB Omarion Hampton

Rookie Omarion Hampton enters Week 1 with momentum after earning first-team reps in camp, giving him the early edge over Najee Harris in the Chargers’ backfield, as he was just named the starting RB. At North Carolina, Hampton averaged 150.4 scrimmage yards, 2.7 receptions, and 1.32 touchdowns per game across 25 contests over his final two seasons, showcasing a versatile three-down profile. He measured 6’0”, 221 pounds at the combine and tested as one of the most athletic RB prospects in years, running a 4.46 40-yard dash with a 10’10” broad jump and posting a 95th-percentile SPORQ score, a mark matched by only Saquon Barkley among recent first-round backs. While the matchup against Kansas City’s run defense is among the league’s toughest in allowing just 70.4 rushing yards per game last season, third-fewest in the NFL. The game flow and structure may lean toward Hampton being used as a receiving outlet. With the Chiefs relying heavily on two-high safety coverages that encourage checkdowns and given Herbert’s need to get the ball out quickly behind a banged-up offensive line, Hampton’s pass-catching ability could be featured right away.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (+100)

 

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey closed his rookie season on a tear, posting 52+ receiving yards in 11 straight games, with 94+ yards in six of those contests. He finished 10th in the league in receiving yards (1,155) despite ranking just 25th in targets (110) and 40th in routes run (450), turning efficiency into production. His 74.5% catch rate and 2.57 yards per route run (9th) highlight how effective he was when given opportunities. Metrics back up his ability to separate as wel, as he ranked 12th in Average Separation Score (.150 A.S.S.) and 10th in win rate (20%) among 180 receivers with 200+ routes. McConkey commanded a 22.9% target share, and that number could climb as he enters Year 2 more established in the offense. Against Kansas City specifically, he delivered 5/67/1 in his lone matchup last season. The Chiefs under Steve Spagnuolo leaned on two-high coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL (60.9%), and McConkey averaged 0.21 targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.62 yards per route run (YPRR) against those looks, showing he can thrive in the exact coverage shells he’ll see most often in this opener. With Rashawn Slater out and the line reworked, quick separation and reliability will be paramount, making McConkey the clear focal point of the Chargers’ passing game in Brazil.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 56.5 Receiving Yards (–115)

 

WR Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen returns to Los Angeles after a lost year in Chicago where he struggled to mesh with Caleb Williams and finished with his lowest production since 2016. He managed just 744 yards, averaging 49.6 per game, while also posting career lows in yards per target (6.1), receptions per game (4.7), and catch rate (57.9%). Drops were another concern, with 11 total (9.8%), compared to only six over the prior two seasons combined. While questions linger about whether those declines were age-related or a byproduct of Chicago’s dysfunction, his track record in Los Angeles suggests he can still thrive in a more stable offense. His role as a slot receiver is particularly important in this matchup, as the Chiefs deployed two-high coverage on 60.9% of snaps, and Allen produced 0.25 targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.66 yards per route run (YPRR) against that look last season. Kansas City also struggled against slot receivers overall, giving up the second-most receiving yards per game (100.2) to players aligned inside. With Allen back in his natural role and positioned to exploit a soft spot in Kansas City’s coverage, his efficiency should rebound even if camp time has been limited.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (–115)

TE Will Dissly

Will Dissly saw steady involvement last season with 540 snaps, primarily working in-line but also mixing into the slot and wide formations when needed. He finished with 58 catches for 491 yards and 3 TDs, showing he can be a reliable short-area option when called upon. While his overall role was modest, he flashed situational value, producing more in outdoor games away from SoFi Stadium, where two of his three touchdowns came. Dissly’s short-area skill set and blocking disguise make him a natural red-zone target, particularly in play-action looks, and with Kansas City’s defense ranking among the toughest in limiting rushing touchdowns, the Chargers may need to finish drives through the air. That sets Dissly up as a sneaky scoring option in Week 1.

Suggested Play:
Will Dissly Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+320)

Although overall on the season I am more high on the Chiefs than the Chargers in the AFC West, I think the timing and matchup are key here. The absence of Rashee Rice is going to hold back the Chiefs offense in a way that I don't think many people are accounting for, and I don't believe Xavier Worthy has the versatility necessary to replace that kind of production. On the Chargers side, their offensive line is the question. However this matchup against what Steve Spagnuolo likes to do defensively should provide Herbert some opportunities to work around that deficiency.

Best Bet: Chargers ML +145
Lean: Over 46.5 -110
Chargers 27 Chiefs 23

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Chiefs) Xavier Worthy (+130)

Kansas City manufactured opportunities for Worthy beyond the passing game a year ago, with 20 carries for 104 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, giving him multiple paths to score. He also established himself as a red-zone weapon, leading all Chiefs wide receivers with 18 targets inside the 20, converting 11 of them into catches. Only Travis Kelce saw more overall looks in that area of the field, while DeAndre Hopkins, who is now gone, was the next-closest WR with 11. Worthy’s role stretches beyond the red zone, though, as his speed creates downfield separation and he’s dangerous on jet sweeps and quick-hitting plays. With Patrick Mahomes showing trust in him early and Rashee Rice suspended, Worthy is positioned to remain one of Kansas City’s most consistent scoring threats.

Longshot (Chargers) Will Dissly +320

Will Dissly saw steady involvement last season with 540 snaps, primarily working in-line but also mixing into the slot and wide formations when needed. He finished with 58 catches for 491 yards and 3 TDs, showing he can be a reliable short-area option when called upon. While his overall role was modest, he flashed situational value, producing more in outdoor games away from SoFi Stadium, where two of his three touchdowns came. Dissly’s short-area skill set and blocking disguise make him a natural red-zone target, particularly in play-action looks, and with Kansas City’s defense ranking among the toughest in limiting rushing touchdowns, the Chargers may need to finish drives through the air. That sets Dissly up as a sneaky scoring option in Week 1.

 

 

 

1st TD Scorer Pick

Best Pick: (Chiefs) Travis Kelce +950

The 2024 season was statistically one of the quietest of Travis Kelce’s career, as he finished with his lowest totals in both yards and touchdowns. Even so, his involvement in the offense never wavered. Kelce drew 133 targets, good for a 23.3% share of Patrick Mahomes’ attempts, underscoring how central he remains to Kansas City’s passing game. With Rashee Rice sidelined for the first six weeks, the Chiefs open 2025 relying heavily on their veteran tight end as the most trusted option in scoring situations. Given his red-zone usage and Mahomes’ willingness to look his way early, Kelce offers strong value as the first touchdown scorer.

 

Parlay 1 +525
Chargers ML
'O' 46.5
Ladd McConkey 'O' 24.5 Longest Reception

Parlay 2 +6015
Travis Kelce First TD
Will Dissly ATD

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua’s biggest question mark has always been health. But he produced last season when on the field. He averaged 260.6 passing yards per game, 7.19 YPA and threw 19 TDs. He had a 101.4 passer rating on a 72.9% completion rate. The big issue for the passing offense last season was their offensive line. They ranked 5^th worst in pas block win rate. This led to Tua attempting a league-high 31.1% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. They were unable to use the speed of Tyreek and Waddle down the field, as they threw more than 20 yards downfield only 7% of attempts. There’s been a lot of offseason drama around Tyreek, who seems uninterested in playing with this Dolphins team. This is the first time he was not named a team captain. This could get ugly quick. Matchup wise, the Colts allowed the 8^th most passing yards per game last season (243.6). They added Cam Bynum and Charvarius Ward to try to boost up their secondary. Expect them to be middle of the pack against the pass this season.

Suggested Pick:

Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-105)

 

RB De’Von Achane

Achane has been one of the top RBs in his first 2 seasons, but he’s done it in 2 different ways. After averaging 7.77 YPC and having a 12.6% explosive run rate in limited volume in 2023, his efficiency dipped in 2024. He averaged 53.4 rushing yards per game on 4.47 YPC and had a 4.9% explosive run rate last season. This was likely due to the state of Miami’s offensive line. He was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 44.1% of his runs last season compared to only 33% in 2023. What separated him in 2024 was his involvement in the passing game. He led the league in receiving yards for a RB (592), averaging 1.64 YPRR and was targeted on 24% of his routes. He was behind only Kamara and McCaffrey in terms of yards on a per game basis. He ran a route on 54.8% of dropbacks compared to only 39.3% in his rookie season. The Colts allowed the 14^th most receiving yards to RB as well as the 2^nd highest backfield target rate allowed (18.9%). With one of Tua’s favorite short yardage targets gone (Jonnu Smith), I’d expect Achane to see even more volume in that department year 3.

Suggested Pick:

Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

40+ Receiving Yards (+158)

50+ Receiving Yards (+270)

60+ Receiving Yards (+475)

70+ Receiving Yards (+850)

 

RB Ollie Gordon II

Ollie Gordon was picked in the 6^th round of the 2025 draft. Ollie led the FBS in scrimmage yards (2,062) and was projected to be one of the top RBs off the board once eligible for the draft. However, his production dipped in 2024, but that was due to bad QB play, a subpar line and every defense keying in on him. He was the winner of the preseason. He rushed 26 times for 126 yards and a TD. He figures to see work early in the season as last year’s RB2, Jaylen Wright, has been ruled out. I expect Ollie to spell Achane in the short yardage situations and will likely vulture some TDs.  The Colts allowed 4.22 YPC last season, 8^th fewest in the NFL. They did allow 18 rushing TDs, tied for the 11^th most.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime TD (+235)

 

WR Tyreek Hill

Tyreek had a disappointing 2024 season, averaging 56.4 receiving yards per game, 1.99 YPRR and was targeted on 25% of his routes. This was after averages 3.21 and 3.85 YPRR in the first 2 seasons with the Dolphins. The Dolphins offense fell off in 2024, in large part due to the offensive line. They ranked 5^th worst in pass block win rate, and Tua led the league in passes behind the line of scrimmage to compensate. Hill only caught 13 passes for 20+ yards, compared to 25 and 29 in the previous 2 seasons. Hill is now 31 and the vibes have been negative during the offseason. He doesn’t seem interested in being with the Dolphins, and he lost his captain title this season as a result. He’s also been dealing with an oblique injury. The Colts allowed the 13^th most receiving yards to WR last season but bolstered their secondary this offseason with the additions of Cam Bynum and Charvarius Ward. Tyreek could go off at any time, but I’m more inclined to fade Tyreek in week 1.

Suggested Pick:

Under 72.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Under 5.5 Receptions (+118)

 

WR Jaylen Waddle

A theme for this Dolphins offense last season, Waddle also struggled. He averaged 49.6 receiving yards per game, 1.74 YPRR and was targeted on 19% of his routes. This was his first season below 1k receiving yards. The Dolphins offense lacked explosiveness. Tua’s concussions and the 5^th worst ranked pass block win rate offensive line had an effect. Only 9.6% of Waddle’s targets were 20+ yards downfield compared to 15.4% and 12.5% in his previous 2 seasons. Waddle also dealt with various injuries throughout the season. With the off field issues with Tyreek Hill as well as the departure of Jonnu Smith, I’m betting on a bounce back season for Jaylen Waddle. Before last season, Waddle was targeted on 24.2%, 22.4% and 27% of his routes. I expect the connection with Tua to rebound. A ton of upside for a talented WR. The Colts allowed the 13^th most receiving yards to WR last season but bolstered their secondary this offseason with the additions of Cam Bynum and Charvarius Ward.

Suggested Pick:

Over 21.5 Longest Reception (-122)

70+ Receiving Yards (+155)

80+ Receiving Yards (+225)

90+ Receiving Yards (+320)

 

TE Darren Waller/Tanner Conner/Julian Hill

After the departure of Jonnu Smith, the TE position is wide open for the Dolphins this season. Darren Waller, 33, is returning to football after not playing a complete season since 2020. The last time we saw him was in 2023 with the Giants. Waller was the favorite for the TE1 job, but it sounds like he will be inactive week 1. Tanner Conner saw the most routes with Tua during the preseason (81.3% route rate). He has never produced in the receiving department. I would avoid this group in its entirety until proven otherwise.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

QB Daniel Jones

Mannnn, Richardson couldn’t beat out Danny Dimes?! Luckily, that’s probably good for the rest of the offensive players on this Colts roster. Jones only played in 10 games last season and rated worse as a passer to counterparts Tommy Devito and Tyrod Taylor. He only had 8 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, but did still support a top WR (Nabers) over the last couple of seasons. That gives us some hope for this pass catching unit. MIA plays zone at a top 12 rate and Jones was not good against zone looks. He held a 1:3 TD to INT ratio and a passer rating of 82.1. MIA also allowed the 2nd fewest rushing yards per game to opposing QB’s. Now, we can’t read too much into that, but ultimately this matchup looks grim for the Colts starting QB. With that being said, MIA had the worst turnover-worthy throw rate forced last season (tied with NYJ).

Suggested Pick:
Daniel Jones ‘U’ 211.5 Passing Yards (-110)

 

RB Jonathan Taylor

Richardson not being named the starting QB could mean big things for JT, who I think is a great running back. In terms of explosive run rate, JT ranked 3rd among running backs with at least 300 rushing attempts. He’s a home run hitter at times. Why is that important in this matchup? Well, MIA ranked 5th last season in explosive run % allowed. JT should be a fully featured back in this game and despite questions at QB, the volume should give him a great shot at the endzone.

Suggested Pick:
Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown (-145)

 

WR Michael Pittman Jr.

There are so many Pittman doubters this season, but we’ve seen Daniel Jones support their team’s top WR. MIA was good against receivers last season, allowing the 24th fewest yards per game, but did allow the 219th most receptions. The game script will likely be dependent on which version of MIA we see this Sunday. If we see the better version, we could see a negative game script for IND early. Pittman is the clear WR1 on this offense so the volume could be there. It’s just hard to trust the yardage in a tougher matchup with a guy that is not known for his explosiveness.

Suggested Picks

Michael Pittman ‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-110)

WR Josh Downs

Downs’ numbers actually don’t look all that different from Pittman’s, except he did it out of the slot. MIA’s defense was middle of the pack against the slot last season (17th in receiving yards per game). However, they did allow the most yards after contact on receptions to slot WR’s (267 yards). Now, that could mean something to Downs, who averaged a solid 5.5 yards after contact per reception last year. If you are daring enough here with Jones under center, I think the look is yardage over the receptions. Surprisingly, Downs over 4.5 receptions has more juice than Pittman’s.

Suggested Picks

Josh Downs ‘O’ 45.5 Receiving Yards (-100)

 

TE Tyler Warren

Tyler Warren is a rookie TE that was drafted in the first round of this year’s rookie draft. Expectations early on are difficult to land on. His projectable long term value is immense, but it’s hard to project what he’ll do out of the gate in week 1. On one side, he could quickly become a top passing target on this offense and a rookie of the year candidate. However, the QB situation may be dire enough to hold back his potential early in the season. MIA was a decent matchup for opposing TE’s last season, allowing the 12th most receiving yards per game and 5 touchdowns. Given their propensity to run plenty of zone (12th highest rate in the league), Warren could find soft spots in the defense. It’s just hard to know his complete involvement.

Suggested Picks

Tyler Warren ‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-130)

The Dolphins had troubles attacking downfield last year having the 7th fewest PA 15+ yards downfield with a 47.6% completion rate ranking #14/32. The Colts only allowed 100 attempts for 15+ yards downfield last year which was the 6th FEWEST. At this point we don’t even know if Hill wants to even be here. Now let’s get to the Colts. This offense will be led my Daniel Jones now I think he has potential but this receiving group he’s got is not good. At least with the Giants he had a player like Malik Nabers. Now the Dolphins last season ran mostly Zone and Jones really struggled against zone coverage having 3 INT’s to 1 TD. Dolphins also allowed the 2nd FEWEST rushing yards as well. I think this is going to be a really low scoring game with both offenses having their flaws. It’s a tough ML pick but the fact the Colts have lost 10 straight Week 1 games including 1 tie. I’m going to take a stab with the Dolphins to get it done in a low scoring grind it out type of game.

Best Bet: Under 47.5 -120
Lean: Dolphins ML +100

Dolphins 24 Colts 20 

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Jonathan Taylor (Colts) -145

No Richardson can't be understated for Taylor's touchdown equity. It's a big deal. The volume should be there as IND relies on their ground game to make up for deficiencies in the passing game. Taylor ability to break a long one helps in this matchup too!

 

Ollie Gordon (Dolphins) +235

Ollie was one of the most talented RBs in college football in 2023, with 2,062 scrimmage yards and 22 touchdowns. Subpar QB play and offensive line cratered his draft stock in 2024. But the eye test looked promising in preseason. Jaylen Wright has been ruled out week 1, and I expect Gordon to handle a lot of the short yardage situations as a result. The Colts allowed 14 rushing TDs to RBs last season. I’m buying the hype!

 

First Touchdown Picks

Jonathan Taylor (Colts) +450

I know... boring to take him here too, but I like the value! It so difficult to make out how this MIA offense will look after last season, but I know I can count on IND to run the ball.

 

Ollie Gordon (Dolphins) +1400

Same analysis as anytime touchdown, just need the Dolphins offense to get inside the 5 yard line first. At +1400 odds, I’ll take the value!

Parlay #1 +172
Jonathan Taylor Touchdown
Michaal Pittman 3+ Receptions
Daniel Jones u1.5 Passing Touchdowns

 

Parlay #2 +798

Jaylen Waddle 70+ Receiving Yards

Tyreek Hill Under 68.5 Receiving Yards

Devon Achane 40+ Receiving Yards

QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith has quietly been one of the league’s most accurate passers over the last three seasons, ranking fourth in passing yards with 12,226, third in completion percentage at 68.5 percent, and eighth in touchdowns with 71. Last year he continued to thrive in efficiency metrics, finishing third in adjusted completion percentage at 79.9 percent, fourth in completion percentage over expectation at 5.3, and fifth in catchable throw rate at 78.2. Those numbers stand in stark contrast to what New England faced a year ago when opposing quarterbacks for Las Vegas combined to rank just 20th in adjusted completion rate, 27th in CPOE, and 27th in catchable throw rate. The Patriots, however, enter 2025 under Mike Vrabel and invested heavily in their defense this offseason. They were already a disciplined unit in 2024, allowing just 220.5 passing yards per game, seventh-fewest in the league, while holding quarterbacks to 16.7 points per game, the 11th-fewest. This matchup presents a strength-on-strength test, with Smith’s efficiency meeting a defense that rarely gives up easy yardage through the air.

Suggested Play:
'U' 1.5 Pass Touchdowns (–120)

 

RB Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty enters the league as Las Vegas’ clear lead back after pacing the FBS with 374 rushing attempts and 2,601 rushing yards last season. His only competition for touches comes from 33-year-old Raheem Mostert and depth option Zamir White, making his workload among the most secure at the position. The Raiders’ offensive line must improve after finishing 29th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt at 1.55 and 31st in rushing success rate at 40.8 percent, though Jeanty’s vision and contact balance should elevate the unit. Chip Kelly’s track record as a play-caller also points to volume, as each of his previous NFL offenses ranked inside the top 14 in rushing yards. Week 1 brings a favorable matchup with New England, which allowed the third-most rushing yards per game at 116.0 and the sixth-most points to running backs. While the Patriots held up reasonably well at the line, ranking 15th in adjusted YBC/ATT at 1.95, they were vulnerable in the open field, surrendering 2.39 yards after contact per attempt, the fifth most in the NFL. That weakness directly plays into Jeanty’s skill set as a runner who thrives on breaking tackles and creating explosive gains after contact.

Suggested Play:
'O' 70.5 Rushing Yards (–115)

 

WR Jakobi Meyers

Jakobi Meyers enters the final year of his deal after reportedly requesting a trade, though an in-season extension remains possible if he continues to produce at a high level. He’s coming off career highs across the board with 129 targets, 87 receptions, and 1,027 yards while commanding a 22.7 percent target share, 1.86 yards per route run, and 10 end-zone looks. Following the Davante Adams trade, Meyers became the clear focal point of Las Vegas’ passing game, earning 108 targets for a 24.5 percent share in 12 games and producing 875 yards at 1.97 YPRR, nearly identical to Brock Bowers’ output in the same stretch. He’s played primarily out of the slot this preseason after running 33.2 percent of his routes inside last year, which matches up with a Patriots defense that allowed 136 receptions to slot receivers, 15th-most in the NFL, despite limiting them to just 1.86 yards per route run. If top corner Christian Gonzalez is limited by a hamstring injury, New England’s secondary depth could be tested early, giving Meyers a path to steady volume in the short and intermediate passing game.

Suggested Play:
'O' 4.5 Receptions (–120)

 

TE Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers enters his second season after an historic rookie year, leading all tight ends in routes (565), targets (153), receptions (112), and yards (1,194). He ranked second in first-read share at 28 percent, second in target share overall, and fifth in yards per route run at 2.11, finishing just four receptions shy of Zach Ertz’s single-season record for a tight end. His role in the Las Vegas offense is secure as a volume centerpiece, and his efficiency numbers suggest he’s already one of the toughest covers at the position. The Patriots were a middle-of-the-pack defense against tight ends last year, allowing 50.2 receiving yards per game (16th-fewest) but also giving up 5.1 receptions per game (15th-most), showing that while they limited efficiency, opponents still found steady completions in the short and intermediate areas. Bowers’ ability to earn targets at an elite rate makes him a strong candidate to rack up catches even in a tough environment.

Suggested Play:
'O' 5.5 Receptions (–115)

QB Drake Maye

Rookie QB Drake Maye took over the starting job week 6 last season. In games he played 99%+ of the snaps, Maye averaged 234.9 passing yards (13^th most), 7.02 yards per attempt (28^th most) and threw for 14 TDs and 10 interceptions. He also averaged 36.8 yards on the ground. Despite pedestrian statistics on the surface, Maye showed flashes and passed the eye test. The Patriots had the 2^nd worst pass blocking win rate last season and the team invested heavily into protecting their franchise QB in the offseason. They drafted Will Campbell (tackle) with the 4^th overall pick and Jared Wilson (left guard) in the 3^rd round. They also signed two veterans, Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury. It won’t be a tall task to improve from their 31^st ranked pass blocking line. It’s also worth noting that the Patriots have a new coaching staff, head coach Mike Vrabel and OC Josh McDaniels should be viewed as an upgrade. They’ll face a Raiders defense with many question marks. They made a lot of changes in their secondary and PFF ranked them as the worst in the league during the offseason. Add in the fact the Patriots now have some offensive weapons in Stefon Diggs and electric rookie Treveyon Henderson, this could be a high-powered offense. But be careful, the new pieces may take time to build chemistry.

Suggested Pick:

Over 216.5 Passing Yards (-113)

225+ Passing Yards (+114)

250+ Passing Yards (+210)

 

RB Treveyon Henderson

Treveyon was picked in round 2 pick 6 this past draft, coming from Ohio State. No player has seen their stock rise more than Henderson in the preseason and for good reason, as his first touch he returned a kickoff for a TD and posted 50 all-purpose yards and a rushing TD. He looks like the same explosive talent from OSU. Last season, he led all backs in the class in yards per carry (7.6) and explosive run rate (14.6%). He ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at the combine and ranked #1 in athleticism score. Treveyon is an extremely high IQ player that had 0 fumbles throughout his collegiate career and is praised for his pass blocking, as well as his work in the passing game. He’ll likely split work with Rhamondre, much in the same way he did at Ohio State with Judkins. He works better this way as he’s an explosive play waiting to happen. Josh McDaniels loves to get his backfield involved in the passing game, as he has targeted them at a 22.3% rate as playcaller. Love his upside for receiving early in the season.

Suggested Pick:

Over 2.5 Receptions (-150)

4+ Receptions (+149)

Anytime TD (+135)

 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre saw a dip in production last year and had fumbling issues, coughing up the ball 6 times. He averaged 53.4 rushing yards per game on an inefficient 3.87 yards per carry. His explosive run rate was also only 3.4%. In comparison, during his 2022 season he averaged 4.95 YPC and had a 7.6% explosive run rate. He has also never been very effective in the passing game. Treveyon may be the perfect match to make up for Stevenson’s deficiencies. I’d expect Rhamondre to see a lot of early down work, especially early in the season. The Patriots offensive line ranked dead last in run block win rate last season, which did not do Rhamondre any favors. The Patriots invested a lot in fixing their offensive line issues. They drafted Will Campbell (tackle) with the 4^th overall pick and Jared Wilson (left guard) in the 3^rd round. They also signed two veterans, Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury. It may take time but expect improvement from this line year over year.

Suggested Pick:

Under 7.5 Longest Reception (-115)

 

WR Stefon Diggs

Diggs tore his ACL in the 8^th game of the season as a member of the Texans last year. The Patriots went ahead and signed the 31-year-old to a 3-year deal worth up to $69 million anyway. Reports out of camp were all positive and he’ll give it a go week 1. Diggs ran 52.8% of his routes from the slot, a career high. This was mainly due to playing with Nico Collins. In the 4 weeks Nico was hurt, his slot rate dropped to 40.9%. He likely returns to his more natural outside positioning as WR1 for the Patriots. This is bullish for Diggs as he averaged 2.50 YPRR, 29% TPRR and had a 40.3% 1^st-read rate when he lined up out wide compared to 1.45 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 28.8% 1^st-read rate from the slot. He’ll team up with 2^nd year QB Drake Maye, who has all the tools to break out, especially as the Patriots invested heavily in the offensive line and provided Maye with dynamic weapons. It’ll be interesting to watch Diggs snap count week 1 as his 1^st game back post ACL surgery, but I lean over on all of Diggs props regardless.

Suggested Pick:

Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

60+ Receiving Yards (+170)

70+ Receiving Yards (+265)

80+ Receiving Yards (+400)

 

WR DeMario Douglas

Douglas was 2^nd on the Patriots in receiving yards last season behind Hunter Henry with 621 yards. He averaged 1.46 YPRR, was targeted on 19% of his routes and commanded a 19.2% 1^st-read rate. He’ll likely take a step back with the addition of Stefon Diggs, but it may be bullish for him as he’s never had the archetype nor the talent to be a top option. He lined up out of the slot on 79.1% of his routes, which will likely continue to be the case in week 1 of 2025. He’s a low aDOT receiver, he had the lowest on the team last season at 5.6 yards. Not an exciting player but he should carve out a role for this Patriots team, at least early in the season before any of the Patriots young receivers have the chance to step up.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

TE Hunter Henry

Henry led the Patriots in receiving yards last season with 674. He averaged 42.1 receiving yards per game, 1.54 YPRR, 20% TPRR and commanded a 19.2% 1^st-read rate. He also received 25% of the team’s end zone targets, but underperformed his opportunity set. Last season, the Raiders allowed the 5^th most receptions, 5^th most receiving yards and the 2^nd most receiving TDs to the tight end position. Henry will have more target competition with the addition of Stefon Diggs as well as RB Treveyon Henderson, who profiles as an explosive threat out of the backfield. It’s hard to predict whether Henry will benefit from the defense focusing elsewhere, or if the deceased target share will just act as a negative.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime TD (+250)

The Patriots in the offseason really worked on getting that offensive line better as they drafted a Tackle & Left guard in the draft and picked up a few Vets. Last year blocking was this teams weakness so if that’s better that is a great sign facing a Raiders defense who PFF ranks them the worst…. OUCH. Patriots also got Stefon Diggs and electric rookie Treyeyon Henderson so this offense could be a sleeper. The Raiders will be facing the Patriots defense that Vrabel has been invested with heavily. I think the Patriots have the edge here.

Best Bet: Patriots ML -148
Lean - Patriots 'O' 21.5 Pts -120
Raiders 17 Patriots 27 

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: Jakobi Meyers (Raiders) +240

Jakobi Meyers is a strong anytime touchdown option in Week 1 against New England. He set career highs last season with 129 targets, 87 receptions, and 1,027 yards, while also drawing 10 end-zone targets. After the Davante Adams trade, Meyers became a focal point of the Raiders’ passing attack, earning a 24.5 percent target share across 12 games and producing nearly identical numbers to Brock Bowers down the stretch. New England was tough overall on receivers, but they did give up 136 catches to slot players, ranking middle of the league in that category, and Meyers is expected to see a larger share of his routes from the slot this year. With Christian Gonzalez questionable due to a hamstring injury, the Patriots’ secondary depth may be tested, giving Meyers an even clearer path to steady usage and red-zone involvement. That combination of volume and role makes him a solid play to find the end zone.

 

Stefon Diggs (+200)

Drake Maye did not have a true number 1 WR his rookie season, as Hunter Henry led the team in yards at 674. Insert Stefon Diggs, who’s 31 years old and coming off an ACL injury, but has looked the part in camp. Like the value here for Maye to connect with his newest weapon behind an offensive line that should be better.

 

First Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: Brock Bowers (Raiders) +1000

Brock Bowers is a strong candidate to open the scoring for Las Vegas after an outstanding rookie campaign where he paced all tight ends in targets, catches, and receiving yards. His impact was immediate and consistent, commanding a 25.8 percent target share that should remain steady even with the arrivals of Amari Cooper and Jack Bech. Given his volume, versatility, and red-zone presence, Bowers offers solid value as the Raiders’ first touchdown scorer.

 

Treveyon Henderson (+700)

Rookie RB Treveyon Henderson was the talk of the preseason after housing a kickoff in his first NFL action. He also ran for a TD during the preseason. Treveyon offers big play ability at any time and wouldn’t be surprised if we see some fireworks in his first real NFL action.

Parlay 1: (+435)

Ashton Jeanty 'O' 70.5 Rush Yards
Jakobi Meyers Anytime TD

 

Parlay 2: (+737)

Treveyon Henderson 4+ Receptions

Stefon Diggs 60+ Receiving Yards

Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards

QB Aaron Rodgers

At age 41, Rodgers best days are behind him. Last season with the Jets, Rodgers averaged 229.2 passing yards per game, 6.67 yards per attempt, and had a 90.5 passer rating. He threw 28 TDs and 11 interceptions. That was with Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams as weapons, arguably 2 WR1s. He’ll be in a worse situation this season, as the Steelers have DK Metcalf as WR1 and a sharp decline in weapons after that.  The Jets were 3^rd in pass rate last season; Arthur Smith has never run an offense that had a positive pass rate over expected. The Steelers ranked 4^th lowest last season (-4.3%). The Jets profile as a tough matchup. They fired Robert Saleh mid-season last year, which led to a collapse on that side of the ball. However, their roster has a ton of defensive talent on paper, and I expect Aaron Gleen and Steve Wilks to lead a strong defense. Glenn ranked 6^th in blitz rate last season with Detroit. Rodgers ranked 32^nd amongst qualifying QBs in YPA when blitzed last season (5.8). Without any preseason reps, this could be a slow start for Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense.

Suggested Pick:

Under 203.5 Pass Yards (-120)

Under 1.5 Pass TDs (-175)

 

RB Jaylen Warren

Warren projects to be the Steelers RB1 this season. He has produced in a limited role, we’ll see if he can maintain his efficiency with more work. He averaged 34.1 rushing yards per game last season on 4.26 yards per carry. He also had 1 rush TD. He averaged 2.69 yards after contact per attempt, which ranked 9^th amongst qualifying RBs last season. In the passing game, Warren averaged 20.7 receiving yards per game on 1.52 YPRR, which ranks 18^th amongst qualifying RBs. He was targeted on 22% of his routes and ran a route on 39.7% of drop backs. Rodgers has 20.2% target rate to RBs in the past 4 years, above the league average of 18.6%. I like Jaylen’s potential in the passing game season long but am hesitant in this matchup. The Lions allowed the lowest backfield target rate last season (10.2%), and I expect a lot of the defensive schemes to carry over from this new coaching staff.

Suggested Pick:

Under 54.5 Rush Yards (-114)

 

RB Kaleb Johnson

Kaleb Johnson was taken with the 19^th pick in the 3^rd round during the draft this offseason. Johnson is built like a bruiser, standing at 6 foot 1 225 pounds. However, he plays with finesse, preferring to win with tempo and decisiveness. NFL Analyst, Lance Zierlein, compares him to Tyler Allgeier. Kaleb ran the ball 24 times for 94 yards in the preseason, equating to 3.9 YPC. It’s hard to trust a rookie in week 1, but I’d expect Kaleb to see an increased role as the season progresses. Jaylen Warrren does not profile as a workhorse, and I expect this backfield to be split. Kaleb’s current line is set at 25.5 rushing yards, which feels a bit high. Kenneth Gainwell figures to mix in early in the season as well. The Jets allowed the 6^th fewest YPC (4.09) last season, but it’s hard to put much emphasis here as the Jets have a completely new coaching staff.

Suggested Pick:

Under 25.5 Rush Yards (-114)

 

WR DK Metcalf

In the first 7 games last season before Metcalf got hurt, he averaged 81.1 receiving yards per game, 2.16 YPRR and was targeted on 23% of his routes. After he came back from injury, he averaged only 53 receiving yards per game, 1.77 YPRR and was targeted on 20% of his routes. There were 2 aspects to this dynamic, one, DK’s injury may have led to a decline in production, and two, JSN became the alpha. DK now gets a fresh start with the Steelers as the undisputed number 1 option. He’ll have 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. The issue here is that DK is going from an offense that had the 6^th highest pass rate over expected, to an Arthur Smith led offense that had the 4^th lowest pass rate over expected. We’ll see if Aaron Rodgers will influence this, but Smith has never run a high pass volume offense. The matchup against the Jets may be bearish, as Sauce Gardner may shadow DK. DK feels like a boom or bust option in week 1.

Suggested Pick:

Over 22.5 Longest Reception (-110)

30+ Longest Reception (+155)

40+ Longest Reception (+400)

Anytime TD (+200)

 

WR Roman Wilson

Roman Wilson was taken by the Steelers with the 20^th pick in the third round during the 2024 NFL Draft. Roman has yet to see any meaningful playing time and dealt with a high ankle sprain injury last season. In his final season with Michigan, Roman led the team with 48 receptions, 789 receiving yards and 12 receiving TDs. Roman ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the combine, possessing explosive speed to stretch the field. During the preseason, Roman caught 4 catches for 96 yards. He only played with the starters (minus Aaron Rodgers) and they had seen enough. They are excited about what they have seen during training camp. Roman’s a sleeper that I have high hopes for this season.

Suggested Pick:

Worth laddering receiving yards if lines open

 

TE Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith

Freiermuth averaged 38.5 receiving yards per game, 1.56 YPRR and was targeted on 18% of his routes last season. He was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate behind Pickens at 18.3%. He also led the team in TDs with 7. The Steelers added Jonnu Smith in the offseason, who averaged 52 receiving yards per game, 2.23 YPRR and was targeted on 28% of his routes with the Dolphins. I’d imagine these 2 split work, but Arthur Smith is also known for liking to play 2 TE sets. No TE has played more than 75% of the team snaps in a Arthur Smith offense. With 2 TEs now competing for targets, both options feel like a TD boom or bust. The Jets were a middle of the pack defense defending the TE position last season, but again, I wouldn’t put much emphasis on this as Aaron Glenn and Steve Wilks take over.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

QB Justin Fields

Fields joins the Jets after starting the first 6 games for the Steelers last season, before they turned to Russell Wilson. He averaged 184.3 passing yards per game, 6.91 YPA, 93.9 QB rating and threw 5 TDs. He also averaged 38.5 rushing yards per game and found the end zone 5 more times from his feet. The Steelers did not have a great offensive situation, but the Jets situation isn’t much better. I’d imagine we see a lot of scrambling from Fields this season. In the preseason, he averaged only 3.9 air yards per attempt and completed 4 of 9 passes for 46 yards. 2 of the 9 passes were off target, not pretty. In week 1, he’ll face the team he just left, the Pittsburgh Steelers. They profile as one of the better defenses in the league and I’m sure the coaching staff will have a solid game plan against him. This game has the lowest over/under during week 1 at 37.5 at time of writing. It’s hard to get excited, I’d expect to see a lot of punts.

Suggested Pick:

Under 173.5 Pass Yards (-114)

Anytime TD (+230)

 

RB Breece Hall

Breece had a disappointing 2024 season as he averaged 54.8 rushing yards per game (25^th most) on an inefficient 4.19 yards per carry (35^th highest). He also ranked 19^th in explosive run rate (5.3%). His offensive line didn’t do him many favors, as the Jets had the 6^th lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.65). In 2023, Breece averaged 58.5 rushing yards per game on 4.46 YPC, as well as a 4.9% explosive run rate. Despite his inefficient rushing attack last season, which may be more on the offensive line situation than Breece himself, he has always been a receiving threat. Last season, he averaged 30.2 receiving yards per game on 1.46 YPRR and a 22% TPRR. That was down from his 34.8 receiving yards per game on 1.99 YPRR and a 30% TPRR in 2023. Now the most important offseason dynamic for the Jets was the change in the coaching staff. Aaron Glenn was hired as the head coach and Tanner Engstrand as the OC. Reports out of camp indicated that they want this to be a true backfield by committee, and the limited time the starters played in the preseason would further emphasize this coach speak. He lost a lot of short-yardage usage to Braelon Allen. With lower usage, we could see a decrease in production from Breece, especially if he’s losing goal line work to Braelon. I don’t expect fireworks from Breece, but his 44.5 rushing yards line for week 1 feels like a bit of an overreaction.

Suggested Pick:

Over 44.5 Rush Yards (-114)

 

RB Braelon Allen

Braelon showed flashes last season as the backup to Breece. Now with a new coaching staff in town, reports are that he will split the work with Breece. He has gotten a ton of training camp buzz. Braelon’s more of a true in between the tackles bruiser. Despite an encouraging eye test, his advanced statistics we’re straight up bad last year. He averaged 3.63 yards per carry, a 1.1% explosive rush rate, and averaged 2.32 yards after contact per attempt, all worse than Breece. Despite the positive coach speak, the only positive I can take away from Braelon is he’ll likely see goal line work. But with an offense projected to be as bad as the Jets, he may not even get that many opportunities.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime TD (+260)

 

WR Garrett Wilson

Last season, Wilson averaged 64.9 receiving yards per game, 1.81 YPRR, and a 25% TPRR with Aaron Rodgers. He had an elite 1^st-read rate at 31.7%. Prior to the Davante Adams acquisition, his 1^st-read rate was 35.7%, compared to 29.3% after. However, from a WR production perspective, Garrett Wilson will see a downgrade from Aaron Rodgers to Justin Fields. Fields averaged only 184.3 passing yards per game last season with the Steelers. The new coaching staff are also making it an emphasis they want to identify as a run first offense. Prior to the Davante acquisition, Garrett lined up from out wide 61.9% and in the slot on 36.7% of his routes. I would expect the new coaching staff to move him around and try to get him the ball in any way possible as they have a huge drop off in weapons elsewhere. Matchup wise, the Steelers allowed the 6^th most receptions to WR1s last season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Garrett get a decent number of targets, I just worry about the accuracy of the throws. Fields has a career 18.2% inaccurate throw rate, one of the worst among qualifying QBs during this time.

Suggested Pick:

Under 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds steps in as the clear-cut favorite to land the Jets number 2 receiver role. This is a big change from last season, where Rodgers played with 2 true WR1s in Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson. The new coaching staff, head coach Aaron Glenn and OC Tanner Engstrand, have made it an emphasis they want to be a run first team. With Justin Fields as the starting QB, opportunities may be far and few between for Josh Reynolds, even in a WR2 role. He does already have ties to this coaching staff, but their main praise for him is his willingness to block. Again, this team profiles as a low scoring running offense.

Suggested Pick:

Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

 

TE Mason Taylor

Taylor was drafted by the Jets no. 42 overall in the 2025 draft, out of LSU. He was the 3^rd TE selected in the draft. Mason had 129 receptions for 1,308 yards and 6 TDs in his collegiate career. He’s the son of Jason Taylor, an NFL Hall of Famer. He profiles as a plus catch talent and above average athleticism. He will need to improve on his route running and pass blocking, which comes with experience. NFL Analyst Lance Zierlein identifies Dallas Goedert as the closest comp. Tough to have high expectations for a rookie TE in his first game but would expect him to play a meaningful role as the year goes on. Target volume is open on this Jets squad.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

This game has the lowest O/U of the week at 37.5, lower than the next lowest total by 5 points. Both defenses have a ton of talent, headlined by TJ Watt and Sauce Gardner. The offenses don’t profile well either, as Fields has yet to show he’s a capable passer in the NFL and Rodgers is well beyond his prime. Aaron Glenn has emphasized all off season he wants them to be a run first offense, which means slower pace of play. The Steelers don’t have many weapons offensively, as outside of DK Metcalf, they are lacking a secondary option for Rodgers, who as immobile as they come in his 40s. I expect an extremely low scoring game with a ton of punts, and like the Steelers to win this game behind an established head coach in Mike Tomlin. He is 11-6-1 in season openers.

Best Bet (Under 37.5 -108)

Lean (Steelers -3)

Steelers 20 Jets 14

Anytime TD Picks

Braelon Allen (+260)

Coach Aaron Glenn has continuously beat the drum that he wants the Jets to run a committee at RB. Allen profiles as the thunder to Breece’s lightning in this offense, in a similar way that Montgomery and Gibbs operated during his time with the Lions. Obviously this run offense is projected to be much worse behind a below average offensive line, but I still like the concept. Allen is a bruiser and if this team is able to get inside the 5 yard line, I expect Allen to punch it home.

 

DK Metcalf (+200)

There is little target competition for DK in this Steelers offense, and Rodgers loves to hone in on one primary target, especially in the redzone. DK’s has the frame to put up massive TD numbers, he’s shown it in the past with 10 and 12 TDs in his second and third season with the Seahawks. A new environment may be all DK needs to take that next step to being an alpha receiver. Expect Rodgers to try to build that connection early in the 1^st game.

First Touchdown Picks

DK Metcalf (+850)

Same analysis as anytime TD. I project the Steelers to win this game, so I’d rather go with a Steeler player than a Jet. Wouldn’t be surprised if Rodgers tries to force feed his top receiving threat in the red zone.

 

None (+4500)

This game has the lowest total in week 1 for a reason and wouldn’t be surprised at all if we don’t see one TD. Worth the dart throw at these odds.

Parlay #1: +1060

DK Metcalf Anytime TD

Braelon Allen Anytime TD

DK Metcalf Over 22.5 Longest Reception

 

Parlay #2: +1281

DK Metcalf 30+ Longest Reception

DK Metcalf Anytime TD

Justin Fields Anytime TD

QB Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson begins the year as the Giants’ starter while 1st-round pick Jaxson Dart waits for his opportunity. Last season in Pittsburgh, Wilson completed 63.7% of his passes for 2,482 yards at 7.4 yards per attempt, with 16 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions across 11 starts. He added 155 yards and 2 scores on the ground, though his mobility has declined with age, staying under 300 rushing yards for the 3rd time in 4 years. His deep passing remains his best trait, earning a league-high 97.3 PFF grade on throws of 20+ yards, but he also struggled with pressure, ranking 38th in sack rate at 8.5%. On the positive side, he limited mistakes with the 5th-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate at 1.8% and had the 6th-highest checkdown rate at 11.6% among qualified QBs. Washington’s defense poses a difficult test, as it held opposing quarterbacks to 204.2 passing yards per game last season, the 3rd-fewest in the NFL. Wilson’s efficiency downfield will be critical against a unit that forces offenses to work underneath.

Suggested Play:
'U' 214.5 Passing Yards (–115)

 

RB Tyrone Tracy

Tyrone Tracy took control of New York’s backfield as a rookie after Week 5 and delivered steady production, averaging 62.3 rushing yards and 18.7 receiving yards per game with 6 total touchdowns over his final 13 contests. He showed upside in efficiency, ranking above average in yards before contact over attempt (1.88), missed tackles forced per attempt (0.17), and explosive run rate (5.2%), though ball security was an issue with 6 drops and 5 fumbles. Tracy has emphasized correcting those mistakes in his second season, and the matchup against Washington gives him a favorable runway. The Commanders allowed the most adjusted yards before contact per attempt in the league last year at 2.61 and the 4th-most rushing yards per game at 113.8, while giving up 4.8 yards per carry, the 3rd-highest mark in the NFL. They were tougher against backs as receivers, allowing just 2.8 catches per game, so Tracy’s work will need to come primarily on the ground. He managed 66 rushing yards in his lone start against Washington last year, and with volume on early downs, he’s positioned to exploit a defense vulnerable to consistent chunk gains.

Suggested Play:
'O' 61.5 Rushing Yards (–115)

 

WR Malik Nabers

Malik Nabers enters Year 2 as the centerpiece of New York’s passing attack after leading the league in target share at 32.2% and finishing 7th in receiving yards with 1,204 despite missing 2 games. He also ranked 2nd in both air yards share (46.1%) and team yards share (39.4%), showing just how much the offense flowed through him even with poor quarterback play. Now paired with Russell Wilson, the Giants are banking on their connection to set the tone early, and preseason reports suggest the chemistry is developing. Nabers proved he can beat Washington specifically, posting 10/127/1 and 9/59 in two meetings last year. The Commanders played man coverage at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL (36.1%), and Nabers excelled in those situations, averaging 2.70 yards per route run and drawing a target on 39% of his routes against man. His ability to dominate volume and create separation makes him the clear focal point in this matchup, with Wilson likely looking his way from the opening drive.

Suggested Play:
'O' 11.5 Yard First Reception (-115)

 

TE Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson emerged late in his rookie year before a foot injury cut his season short, logging an 84% snap share and a 69% route share while averaging 3.6 catches for 43.2 yards with 1 touchdown across his final 5 games. That stretch was a stark contrast to his slow start, where he averaged just 16.4 receiving yards with no scores over his first 7 contests. In that late-season run, he ranked 2nd among Giants receivers only to Malik Nabers in both target share (15.8%) and yards per route run (1.54), signaling a growing role in the passing game. Washington’s defense, which leaned on man coverage at the 6th-highest rate in the league (36.1%), was a matchup Johnson had already capitalized on, catching 3 passes for 51 yards and a touchdown in their second meeting last year. With defenses keyed on Nabers, Johnson has the opportunity to be a secondary red-zone threat in Week 1.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+320)

QB Jayden Daniels

The reigning offensive rookie of the year has some big shoes to fill entering his sophomore year. But he's given you no reason to believe he can't reach the same heights he hit last season. In this matchup, however, it might be trickier for him than it was last season. As division rivals, Daniels played the New York Giants twice last season. He had decent passing numbers, to be fair. Daniels went 23/29 for 226 passing yards with zero TDs & zero INTs in Week 2, and went 15/22 for 209 passing yards with two TDs and zero INTs, which comes in slightly lower than his per-game stats on the season. Considering how poorly the Giants are performing, they have a solid defence. Last season, they allowed the 11th fewest (227.6) passing yards and the 10th fewest completions (20.5) per game to opposing QBs. Last season, the Giants' defence split their coverages. They ran the 14th most man and the ninth least zone, which averages out to be in the middle. In terms of coverages, the Giants ran the ninth most Cover 1 and the seventh most Cover 3. Against those coverages, Daniels finished middle of the pack (17th) in yards per attempt (7.13) against Cover 1. However, Daniels was one of the best QBs last season against Cover 3, finishing with the fifth-highest yards per attempt at 9.2. You can expect a similar stat line for Daniels, as the Giants' defensive coordinator has not changed since last year. So, Daniels should do well enough to exploit the matchup. In doing so, we're going to focus on Daniels not throwing an interception, as he has performed well against this team and this scheme, and did not throw an INT against the NYG last season.

Suggested pick:

Jayden Daniels u0.5 Interception (-130)

 

RB Austin Ekeler

Many expected that, following the Brian Robinson Jr. trade, Jacory Croskey-Merritt would be the beneficiary. And that may be the case, but that doesn't look like that will happen in Week 1. JCM enters this week as the fourth running on the depth chart. Of course, that can all change very quickly, but Ekeler gets the nod as the starting RB this week. Last season, Ekeler spent most of the season as the backup/receiving back in the Commanders' offence (69% of all his snaps were on throwing plays), yet he saw his yards per carry increase to 4.8 on just 77 attempts – the highest since his second season. However, Ekeler's bread and butter is and always has been his receiving work, and he was back to his efficient self, catching 87.5% of his targets for 10.5 yards per catch. The way to attack the Giants is through the RB position. New York allowed the fifth most rushing yards (111.24) and the seventh most receiving yards (38.06) to opposing RBs. With two young running backs behind him in Chris Rodriguez and JCM, Ekeler will be the clear receiving back, but could lose work in the running game. For that reason, we will be targeting Ekeler's receiving lines. In two games against the Giants last season, Ekeler caught all three of his targets for 47 receiving yards in Week 2 and caught three of five targets for 41 receiving yards in Week 9.

Suggested Pick:

Austin Ekeler o22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

RB Chris Rodriguez / Jacory Croskey-Merritt

According to the depth chart, Rodriguez should get the start over Croskey-Merritt. However, their lines are fairly similar on the books. Rodriguez leads with a 27.5 line, Ekeler has a 25.5 line, while JCM's line is set at 22.5. This would indicate that Rodriguez has the upper hand. But all the hype seems to be surrounding JCM this offseason. However, in Week 1, before we know anything, it's probably best to just trust the depth chart. As we said above about Ekeler, he will likely lose some work on running downs to one of these guys. JCM will probably be the better player by the end of the season, but for Week 1, we lean toward Rodriguez. In the preseason, Rodriguez outproduced JCM in both games where both backs were played: VS. Patriots - Rodriguez (6 for 22, 3.7 YPC), JCM (7 for 24, 3.4 YPC). VS. Bengals - Rodriguez (6 for 62, 10.3 YPC), JCM (11 for 46, 4.2 YPC). The Commanders sat JCM for their final preseason game, but we still think they will give the rookie some time before fully thrusting him into this offence.

Suggested Pick:

Chris Rodriguez o27.5 Rushing Yards (-110) / Pass on Jacory Croskey-Merritt for this week.

 

WR Terry McLaurin

The holdout is over, and Terry got his payday, but it came at a cost for him, as he missed the entire preseason, which could get him off to a slow start to the season. McLaurin had a fantastic previous season, reaching 1,000 receiving yards for the fifth consecutive season and taking the leap to 13 receiving TDs. Many view him as an easy regression candidate this season, which could be true, especially in this matchup. The Giants were a middle-of-the-pack matchup in terms of receptions (11.9) and receiving yards (149.8) per game to opposing WRs. However, despite his fantastic year, McLaurin significantly struggled against the Giants. He caught six of his eight targets for only 22 receiving yards in Week 2 and two of his three targets for just 19 receiving yards in Week 9. New York runs about an even amount of zone and man coverage, but ranks in the top 10 in terms of Cover 1 and Cover 3. Despite running the seventh most routes against Cover 1, McLaurin finished 28th in total receiving yards and 62nd in yards per route run (1.64). However, in Cover 3, McLaurin finished with the fourth most receiving yards and ninth in yards per route run. Despite this, the Giants were able to contain McLaurin, and with him missing most of training camp, we see a path where he gets off to a slow start.

Suggested pick:

Terry McLaurin u60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Deebo Samuel

Washington was missing an identity at their WR2 spot last season, but certainly addressed that when they traded for Deebo Samuel. Adding a versatile weapon that can line up anywhere on the field as a gadget option is going to take this offence to new heights. Samuel thrives in yards after catch, averaging 8.2 YAC per reception last season — fourth among wide receivers. Last season, the Giants were great at limiting YAC, allowing the seventh fewest yards after the catch. However, when you dive into one of their most run coverages, they climb up to 10th in YAC/reception (6.41) in Cover 1. If they're going to want to keep McLaurin contained on the other side as he excels in Cover 3, that leaves Deebo available to exploit Cover 1, which he did at a top-12 rate last season from Weeks 1-10 – before his horrible late-season stretch. There's going to be one Commanders receiver who pops off in this game, and I'm going with the one who's been there all camp long.

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel o44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Zach Ertz

The ageless wonder just keeps on trucking along. This being his 13th season, Ertz still leads the Commanders' TE room. However, this might be a tough matchup for Ertz out of the gate as the Giants allowed the second fewest receptions (3.9) and the fourth fewest receiving yards (39.7) per game to opposing TEs. In two matchups against the Giants last season, Ertz had mixed results. In Week 2, Ertz caught all four of his targets for 62 receiving yards, but could only garner one catch on one target for five receiving yards in Week 9. With Deebo now in the mix, Ertz should see much less than his 56.2% slot percentage last season, resulting in him running more than his 31.9% inline routes he ran in 2024. Against inline receivers last season, the Giants allowed the sixth fewest yards per reception (4.94) to inline receivers in 2024.

Suggested pick:

Zach Ertz u31.5 Receiving Yards (-105)

One area the Commanders lacked last year was stopping the run allowing the 4th MOST rushing yards while giving up 4.8 YPC. Also the Commanders ran the 6th HIGHEST man coverage last year and I believe that Wilson/Nabers combo could be really good. Now the Commanders offense is expected to be very good this season as it’s led by 2nd year Jayden Daniel’s who looked like a vet at times last year so I’m very intrigued to see how he does with a year under his belt. In 2 years against the Giants last year they scored 21 & 27 points. I think both offenses can get things going and push this total over.

Best Bet Over 44.5 -135
Lean Commanders -6 -112
Giants 21 Commanders 30

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Giants) Theo Johnson +320
Theo Johnson emerged late in his rookie year before a foot injury cut his season short, logging an 84% snap share and a 69% route share while averaging 3.6 catches for 43.2 yards with 1 touchdown across his final 5 games. That stretch was a stark contrast to his slow start, where he averaged just 16.4 receiving yards with no scores over his first 7 contests. In that late-season run, he ranked 2nd among Giants receivers only to Malik Nabers in both target share (15.8%) and yards per route run (1.54), signaling a growing role in the passing game. Washington’s defense, which leaned on man coverage at the 6th-highest rate in the league (36.1%), was a matchup Johnson had already capitalized on, catching 3 passes for 51 yards and a touchdown in their second meeting last year. With defenses keyed on Nabers, Johnson has the opportunity to be a secondary red-zone threat in Week 1.

 

Best Pick: (Commanders) Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+155)

We are very high on Deebo for this matchup and are excited to see how they use their new gadget player. With McLaurin likely to start the season slowly, Deebo has every opportunity to show his new teammates that he was worth the trade and that the second half of last season was just a fluke, not a sign of things to come.

 

First TD Scorer

Longshot: (Giants) Tyrone Tracy Jr. +850
Tyrone Tracy Jr. wasted little time establishing himself as the Giants’ lead back after entering the league as a 5th-round pick in 2024. Originally buried behind Devin Singletary, Tracy’s versatility and reliability in scoring territory earned him a featured role, handling 56.6% of New York’s red-zone rushing attempts. The Giants did add Arizona State bruiser Cam Skattebo in the draft to push the competition, but Tracy has held onto the starting job and remains the most trusted option near the goal line. That usage makes him a strong candidate to deliver the first touchdown in Week 1.

 

Longshot: (Commanders) Chris Rodriguez (+1400)

A little bit of a risky one, given how murky the Commanders' RB room is, but if we're right about JCM slowly getting worked in, Rodriguez could fall into the endzone. There are reports that while JCM is the one to watch this season, Rodriguez may be getting the bulk of the early downs and goal-line work for the Commanders.

Parlay #1: Giants (+1505)

Tyrone Tracy 'O' 13.5 Rush Attempts
Russell Wilson 'U' 217.5 Pass Attempts
Theo Johnson ATD

 

Parlay #2: Commanders (+275)

Washington Commanders ML
Austin Ekeler 20+ Receiving Yards
Deebo Samuel 40+ Receiving Yards

Panthers Guide Not Available 

QB Trevor Lawrence

Trevor has been a disappointment since entering the league in 2021. He hasn’t been awful, nor will he be pushed out of the league any time soon, but he was supposed to be a generational prospect. Hopefully Liam Cohen can turn it around for a talented Jags team (I have faith they will this season). Trevor did get hurt last season, forcing Mac Jones as the starter for several weeks, but Lawrence was just ok when before he was out: 85.2 passer rating, 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. To his credit, this is certainly the most competent coaching staff he’s likely had in his career and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal. Brian Thomas Jr. broke out in a huge way last season and they drafted Hunter this year. A mixture of Etienne, Bigsby and Tuten should give them a capable backfield as well. According to PFF, the Jags O-line was middle of the pack in pass blocking last season and Mac Jones seemingly found a groove behind this O-line to finish 2024. I just have really high hopes for this Jags offense and I think Lawrence will take a step forward this season. Luckily for JAX, the Panthers had no pass rush last season, running dead last in pass rush ratings and pressure rate. They allowed the 13th most passing yards per game last season and if CAR’s offense can carry their momentum from last season ,this has some shootout potential.

Suggested Picks
Trevor Lawrence ‘O’ 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-112)
Trevor Lawrence ‘O’ 238.5 Passing Yards (-115)

 

RB Travis Etienne Jr.

Carolina was bad against the pass, so they must have been decent against the run right? Nope. They ranked dead last in run defensive grading and THE MOST rushing yards per game to opposing backs. In fact, it wasn’t even close as CAR allowed over 25 yards more per game than the next weakest team last season. Now, Etienne is technically first on the depth chart, but I think it’s clear that Bigsby is more likely to get the early down rushing work. Their rushing lines paint that picture too. I personally think Etienne may eventually be the odd man out if Tuten breaks through, but Etienne should remain involved on passing downs for now, as well as some rushing work.

Suggested Picks
Travis Etienne Jr. ‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (+106)

RB Tank Bigsby
He’s listed second on the depth chart, but this is the guy you want to target in this matchup. By season’s end last year, Bigsby out-rushed Etienne 168 to 150 and was more efficient than Etienne. He had 766 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns to Etienne’s 558 and 2. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry to Etienne’s 3.7 and produced 3.74 yards after contact per attempt compared to Etienne’s 2.48. Finally, Bigsby was also a more explosive runner with an explosive run rate of 4.8% compared to Etienne’s 4.0%. Now, a new coaching staff doesn’t guarantee us anything, but they look at these numbers too and it’s hard to imagine Bigsby doesn’t get run early on. Bigby doesn’t participate in much passing work, but you can’t ask for a better matchup as a rusher.

Suggested Picks
Tank Bigsby ‘O’ 43.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas was so good last season and we should expect more of the same this year. Hat’s crazy is that Thomas ranked 10th among all wideouts in receiving yards per game (75.4) last season, but 25th in target per game (7.6)! Have we even seen his ceiling yet? The answer might be, maybe not. Thomas’ YAC-ability is incredible and he averaged 6.57 YAC per reception which only trailed Puka and Godwin of the top 10 WR’s in receiving yards per game. That includes guys like Chase, A.J. Brown and Nico Collins. The matchup is good, as CAR allowed the 13th most receiving yards per game to pass catchers last season (4,043). The concern is how bad they are against the run, limiting their willingness to air it out. However, they did allow a league leading 35 pass catching TD’s last season. The yardage total is high for a guy that isn’t getting an elite target share, so I think pivoting to the TD market is the move here.

Suggested Picks
Brian Thomas Jr. Anytime Touchdown +130

WR Travis Hunter
We at least got some good news prior to the season for Hunter’s offense. He’s listed as a starting WR on the depth chart and back-up CB. What does that mean? Well, I think it means the early focus will be on his offensive involvement in the gameplan. That’s good for us. However, I still have my hesitations about betting on him. There has been work throughout summer camp that his route running isn't up to par and the adjustment of being a 2-way player is unknown in this sport. He might be undeniable out of the gate, but I’d rather sit back and wait to see how it all looks. It’ll be important to not only see how he’s deployed, but also how often. If they pull back on his snap share to keep him fresh on defense, that’ll matter quite a bit. The best move here is to wait and see, but we should have a bette idea this time next week.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE Brenton Strange

What if I told you CAR was also bad against TE’s, would that surprise you? Of course not. From a yardage and reception perspective, they are about middle of the pack in what they allow to opposing TE’s. However, they allowed the most touchdowns (11) to opposing TE’s last season. The Jags seem to really like Strange. First off, they let Engram walk this off-season. Secondly, Coen came out and described the strides Strange has made in camp and the connection he is developing with Lawrence. I’m buying the hype and he looks like a nice compliment to the deep threat of Thomas Jr. and Hunter. Lawrence checked down to outlet receivers plenty last season (7.4%). Typically those outlets are running backs and TE’s. Expect Strange to be apart of that and he can extend the play after the catch too.

Suggested Picks
Branton Strange ‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-145)
Branton Strange Anytime Touchdown (+400)

Jags win this game by a ton here in my opinion. 

Best Bet (Jaguars -2.5 -120)
Lean (Under 46.5 -110)
Panthers 17 Jags 30

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. +130
We are still waiting for the elite target sahre he deserves, but the touchdown equity is legit. The Panthers allowed the most receiving touchdowns to opposing pass catchers last season. Thomas should be good for one in week 1.

Longshot: Brenton Strange (Jaguars) +400
Panthers allowed the most TD's to opposing TE's last season (11) and Coen has raved about Strange in camp all summer. He's the perfect outlet option to field stretchers Thomas Jr. and Hunter.

 

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: Tank Bigsby +900

For what I beleive is the primary runner in this offense against the worst run defense in the league? Sign me up at +900! Some books have Etienne at the same price and I feel much better about Bigsby.

Parlay #1: (+230)
JAX Jaguars ML
Tank Bigsby Anytime Touchdown
Branton Strange 2+ Receptions

 

QB Joe Burrow

Burrow led the league in passing yards last season averaging 289.3 yards per game and 7.54 yards per attempt. He threw 43 TDs and 9 interceptions. His 108.5 passer rating ranked 3^rd behind Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson. The Bengals had the highest pass rate over expected last season, and their defense was atrocious, they threw it like no other. Burrow and the Bengals have been notorious for slow starts to the season, as they are 1-5 in week 1 under Zac Taylor. However, they decided to try a new approach to the preseason. Burrow took 25 dropbacks this preseason compared to just 8 over the previous 3 seasons. His connection with Ja’Marr, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown looked to be in midseason form. Matchup wise, Jim Schwartz and the Browns defense have given Burrow trouble over the years. He’s thrown 82, 181 and 252 yards in his last 3 matchups.  Cleveland led the league in pressure rate last season. Burrow averaged 7.61 YPA, had a 56.3% completion rate and a 4.83 ANY/A rate against pressure, elite numbers. The Browns also allowed the 3^rd most receiving yards on targets 20+ yards down field. With both Chase and Higgins active, we are likely to see explosive plays.

Suggested Pick:

Over 35.5 Longest Completion (-120)

40+ Longest Completion (+140)

50+ Longest Completion (+400)

 

RB Chase Brown

Chase Brown looks to be a Walmart version of Christian McCaffrey. He shared a backfield with Zach Moss in the first 8 weeks of last season. Moss suffered a season-ending neck injury, which led to the Chase Brown breakout. From weeks 9 forward, Brown averaged 78.9 rushing yards per game on 4.18 YPC. He also added 37.4 receiving yards per game on 1.27 YPRR. He was an absolute bell cow, with an 85.6% snap share during that time, only behind Chuba Hubbard and Kyren Williams. He handled 95.5% of the backfield touches in those games. His success rate and explosive run rate ranked 26^th and 32^nd respectively, he was not exactly efficient, but the role was elite. Zach Moss is gone and the Bengals drafted Tahj Brooks in the 6^th round, Browns elite role will continue. Matchup wise, Cleveland allowed the 13^th highest YPC (4.52) and tied for 4^th most rushing TDs allowed. They did however allow the 4^th fewest receiving yards to RB. In their matchup last season without Moss, Brown ran for 91 yards and caught 3 receptions for 18 receiving yards.

Suggested Pick:

Over 90.5 Rush+Receiving Yards (-115)

100+ Rush+Receiving Yards (+140)

125+ Rush+Receiving Yards (+350)

 

WR Ja’Marr Chase

Ja’Marr was the best WR in the NFL last season, averaging 100.5 receiving yards per game, 2.45 YPRR and was targeted on 25% of his routes. He commanded a 1^st-read rate of 34.5% and was moved around, lining up out wide on 64.2% of his routes and from the slot on 33.8%. Ja’Marr has had mixed success against the Denzel Ward and the Browns. His stat lines in 2 matchups last season were 5 receptions for 55 yards and a TD, as well as 6 receptions for 97 yards and a TD. The Browns allowed the 9^th most receiving yards and the 4^th most TDs to WR last season. Cleveland led the league in pressure rate last season and would expect that trend to continue this season. Chase led the Bengals with 1.80 YPRR and a 40.4% 1^st-read rate when Burrow was pressured last season. The Browns allowed the 3^rd most receiving yards on targets 20+ yards down field last season, and Chase can burn a defense for a house call at any moment.

Suggested Pick:

Over 25.5 Longest Reception (-120)

30+ Longest Reception (+140)

40+ Longest Reception (+375)

Over 84.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Anytime Touchdown (-135)

 

WR Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins was one of the top number 2 receivers in the NFL last season, averaging 75.9 receiving yards per game, 2.12 YPRR and was targeted on 24% of his routes. He commanded a 29.8% 1^st-read rate and primarily lined up out wide (79.1%). Despite being the WR2 behind Chase, Tee out targeted Chase in targets and had a team-high 37.4% air yards when the 2 shared the field. In 2 matchups against the Browns last season, Higgins had 4 receptions for 82 yards and a TD, followed by 8 receptions for 58 yards and a TD. Cleveland led the league in pressure rate last season and would expect that trend to continue this season. Higgins was 4^th in YPRR (1.19) but 2^nd in 1^st-read rate (36.1%) when Burrow was pressured last season.

Suggested Pick:

Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Anytime Touchdown (+120)

 

TE Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki averaged 39.1 receiving yards per game, 1.62 YPRR and was targeted on 20% of his routes. He was 3^rd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 13.8%. Despite being a TE, Gesicki primarily lined up from the slot and out wide, at 68.5% and 23.4% respectively. The Browns were in the middle of the pack in receiving yards and receiving TDs allowed to TEs last season. Cleveland led the league in pressure rate last season and would expect that trend to continue this season. Gesicki dropped to 1.09 YPRR and was only targeted on 9% of his routes when Burrow was pressured last season. It’s also important to note that when Higgins was active last season, Gesicki’s production dipped. He was targeted on only 15.8% of his routes and averaged 1.29 YPRR when Higgins was active compared to a 26.1% TPRR and 2.05 YPRR without Higgins.

Suggested Pick:

Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

Under 2.5 Receptions (-130)

QB Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco was confirmed as the Week 1 starter after edging out Kenny Pickett, who dealt with a hamstring injury before being traded to Las Vegas. While rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders may eventually push for playing time, Flacco enters the opener with the job secure. He has been a steady volume passer late in his career, throwing for 250 or more yards in 13 of 16 starts since 2022. The Bengals’ defense is a mixed bag for this matchup: they allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns per game last year at 1.8, but they also held opposing passers to an adjusted completion rate of just 74.7 percent, the 11th lowest in the NFL. That profile suggests efficiency may be a challenge, but touchdown opportunities should still be present against a defense that was prone to breakdowns in scoring situations.

Suggested Play:
'O' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120)

 

RBs Jerome Ford, Quinshon Judkins, Dylan Sampson

The Browns enter Week 1 with uncertainty in their backfield after second-round pick Quinshon Judkins went unsigned amid an ongoing investigation, leaving Jerome Ford and rookie Dylan Sampson to handle the workload. Ford has already proven he can step up, averaging 57 rushing yards and 21 receiving yards per game across six starts without Nick Chubb last season, and he torched Cincinnati in their late-season meeting with 92 rushing yards, a touchdown, and 49 more through the air. Sampson’s speed makes him a change-of-pace threat, but Ford should open as the lead option. The matchup is challenging against a Bengals defense that ranked 14th in rushing yards allowed per game at 89.9 and held opponents to 1.97 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, but they also struggled up front with the 10th-worst stuff rate in the league at 41.5 percent. That weakness leaves room for Ford to build momentum if he can consistently get past the line of scrimmage, and his track record against Cincinnati suggests he has paths to both volume and efficiency.

Suggested Play:
Ford 'O' 62.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (–115)

 

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy is coming off a season where he finally delivered on his potential, setting personal highs with 145 targets, 90 receptions, and 1,229 receiving yards. His year started slowly in Cleveland with Deshaun Watson under center, producing only 38 yards per game on six targets across their seven starts together. Everything changed once Jameis Winston took over in Week 8, as Jeudy immediately became the centerpiece of the passing game, averaging 112 yards on nearly 10 targets per contest. Even when Winston went down, Jeudy’s role didn’t diminish, as he still saw more than 11 targets per game and hovered around 60 yards with Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappe leading the offense in later games. Kevin Stefanski leaned into a system that mirrored Klint Kubiak’s approach from Denver in 2022, when Jeudy also closed strong, and the results showed: Jeudy’s first-read share ballooned from 18.5 percent in the first seven weeks to 30.8 percent in the final 10. He’ll need to prove he can carry that over against a Bengals defense that limited him to just three catches for 38 yards across two meetings last year, making this matchup a true test of whether his expanded role will hold.

Suggested Play:
'O' 5.5 Receptions (–115)

 

WR Cedric Tillman

Cedric Tillman looked like a different player once Amari Cooper was moved midseason and Jameis Winston stepped into the lineup. After a quiet first year and a half, he immediately produced 330 yards and three touchdowns on 26 catches across his first 18 quarters as a starter, nearly matching and surpassing what he had managed in his first 20 games combined. His progress was cut short by a concussion in Week 12, but the flashes suggested a possible long-term role on the outside in Cleveland’s offense. The challenge this week comes against a Bengals secondary that was one of the stingiest against perimeter receivers last year, holding them to just 93.8 yards per game and the fourth-lowest yards per route run at 1.72. Even so, Tillman did manage to find success in his lone meeting with Cincinnati, finishing with eight catches for 81 yards, which points to him being capable of producing even in a tougher matchup.

Suggested Bet:
Anytime TD Scorer +300

 

TE David Njoku

David Njoku enters 2025 off the most productive stretch of his career, setting highs in 2023 with 123 targets, 81 catches, 882 yards, and six touchdowns despite missing time last year with ankle, hamstring, and knee injuries. Over the last three seasons, he’s finished as a top-12 performer in 63 percent of his starts, a rate that trails only George Kittle at the position, and no tight end has drawn more end-zone looks in that span than Njoku’s 21. Even with added competition, his role should remain strong after ranking fifth in target share at 21 percent and seventh in route share at 71.9 percent, with Elijah Moore’s 102 vacated slot targets also opening up volume underneath. The matchup is highly favorable, as Cincinnati gave up the most production to tight ends in 2024, including 65.5 receiving yards per game and 13.4 points per game to the position. Njoku also carved up the Bengals head-to-head, posting 10 catches for 76 yards and a score in one meeting and eight catches for 66 yards in the other, reinforcing him as a tough cover for this defense.

Suggested Play:
'O' 4.5 Receptions (–120)

Joe Burrow took a lot of preseason snaps and Chase,Higgins, Burrow connection looked in mid season form. Browns generate a ton of pressure but last year when they did they allowed a 78.9 QB rating which is the 8th worst. That is concerning facing Burrow who is elite when pressured averaged 7.61 YPA and a 56.3% Completion%. The Browns  allowed the 3rd most rec yards on 20+ yards downfield. Chase or Higgins will catch a deep ball here! As for the Browns veteran Joe Flacco will be the QB and we can’t forget his bad this Bengals defense was last year. I like the over here and a win for the Bengals

Best Bet: (Over 47.5 -125)
Lean: (Bengals -5.5 -110)
Bengals 30 Browns 20

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Browns) Cedric Tillman +300

Cedric Tillman emerged after the Amari Cooper trade, scoring three times in a short span before a concussion cut his season short. He turned 26 catches into 330 yards and 3 TDs across just 18 quarters as a starter, showing a clear knack for finishing drives once Jameis Winston took over. The Bengals limited wideouts overall last season, but Tillman still managed 8 catches for 81 yards in his lone matchup, and his size and red-zone usage give him a path to pay dirt again in Week 1.

 

Tee Higgins (Bengals) +130

Higgins scored a TD in both matchups against the Browns last season and with Ward likely keyed in on Chase, I like Higgins chances to find the endzone. Higgins had 10 TDs last season and out targeted Chase when they were both on the field. I like the value over Chase in week 1.

 

First TD Scorer

Longshot: (Browns) David Njoku +1100

David Njoku is a strong candidate to strike first for Cleveland in Week 1. He’s been one of the Browns’ most reliable red-zone weapons, leading all tight ends with 21 end-zone targets over the last two seasons and converting seven of them into touchdowns. Njoku torched Cincinnati’s defense in both meetings last year, going for 10 catches, 76 yards, and a score in one game and 8 for 66 in the other. With Elijah Moore’s 102 slot targets vacated, Njoku’s role as a middle-field and scoring option should be even more pronounced. Given the Bengals’ struggles against tight ends — allowing the most production at the position in 2024 — Njoku profiles as Cleveland’s best bet to get into the end zone first.

 

Chase Brown (Bengals) +475

Chase Brown figures to be an absolute workhorse for the Bengals, as he had an 80%+ snap share in 8 straight to end last season. The Bengals drafted a 6^th round RB and cut Zach Moss. Especially in week 1, I don’t see a scenario where Brown goes off the field much. Brown had 5 1Q TDs last season, including 4 in the last 8 weeks.

Parlay #1: +851

Ja'Marr Chase 30+ Yard Reception

Chase Brown 100+ Rush+Receiving Yards

Tee Higgins Anytime TD

 

Parlay #2

Jerome Ford ATD

Jerry Jeudy 60+ Receiving Yards

David Njoku 'O' 4.5 Receptions

QB Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield had the single best season of his NFL career in 2024. He had career marks in pass completions (407), completion percentage (71.4%), pass yards (4,500) and touchdowns (41) while completing a league best 73.4% of his passes in the red zone where 37% were thrown for TD’s, 2nd only to Lamar Jackson. It’s only seems logical to expect some slight regression from the Bucs QB, but it doesn’t mean he still isn’t going to be one of the NFL’s top QB’s. But there is one significant change that must be addressed and that is the departure of Tampa Bay OC Liam Coen who took the HC job in Jacksonville. This will mark the 9th different coordinator Mayfield has worked with, and this year it will be Josh Grizzard. But make no mistake, Jason Licht is one of the best GM’s in all of football. He brought in Dave Canales, then Liam Coen and both quickly became NFL head coaches. One thing Grizzard has made clear from day one is that he wants to see Tampa make a point to throw the ball downfield more and once the Bucs get Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan back to go along with Mike Evans and rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka this offense, coupled with the running game of Bucky Irving should be nothing short of electric. That said, Mayfield will be without All Pro OL Tristan Wirfs in week 1 and the Bucs average 1.3 yds/play more when he is on the field. The good news for Baker on Sunday is he will face a Falcons defense that he’s torched throughout his career, and one that couldn’t have lower expectations coming into the season considering they hired Jeff Ulbrich of the NY Jets who ran a once-competent Jet defense into the ground. Projecting what we can expect from Mayfield in week 1 won’t be easy and that’s because of the disparity between what ATL did last year as opposed to what Ulbrich ran in New York. The Falcons ran zone coverage at the 7th highest rate (72.5%) in the NFL, but on the contrary Ulbrich’s Jets leaned on man coverage equally at the 7th highest rate (33.6%). That said, Baker threw 3 TD’s in each of his 2 games last season vs. ATL and no defensive scheme can make up for a Falcons defense that allowed 34 passing TD’s (2nd most) to opposing QB’s in ’25 and they will be starting 2 rookies in their secondary this Sunday.

Suggested Pick
Baker Mayfield o1.5 Pass Touchdowns (-139)

 

RB Bucky Irving

Bucky Irving’s rookie campaign exceeded even what the front office at One Buc Place had in mind for 2024. The Tampa Bay RB rushed for 1,112 yards on 5.4 YPC (4th best among RB’s) and caught 47 balls for 392 yards. By season’s end, Irving amassed 1,514 total yards out of the backfield solidifying him as one of best all-purpose backs in the league. With regard to last season’s numbers against the Falcons, Irving posted identical rushing lines of 44 yds on 9 carries in each of his 2 starts vs his NFC South rival. He caught 2 balls for 12 yards in his first matchup and 7 for 40 the next time around. However, you can throw these numbers out the window because these 2 games took place in weeks 5 and 8 where Tampa was easing the rookie in slowly. To show you the massive disparity, Bucky ran the ball 83 times in his first 9 games, averaging 9.2 carries per game. In his last 8 games he had 124 carries (15.5 per game) and that includes 4 carries in a meaningless game vs LVR. The Falcons were the definition of mediocre when it came to stopping the run last year, ranking 15th in the league. The one thing that has opened fans eyes up the most about Bucky Irving is his ability to pick up yards after contact, a statistic he led the league in last year as a rookie 4.03 per attempt. The Buccaneers want to get Irving going early, and with Godwin and McMillan both out he is going to be relied upon heavily. Still, Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuke are both going to be major threats in the passing game which will prevent Atlanta from focusing their efforts on Bucky.

Suggested Pick
Bucky Irving o94.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-114)

 

WR Mike Evans

Playing the most diva-filled position in the NFL, wide receiver Mike Evans is one of the few exceptions. He is one of the highest character guys is the league and it’s why he was the most feel-good story of the year when he made NFL history by tying Jerry Rice for the most consecutive 1,000 yard seasons at 11. What’s most amazing is Evans found a way to do this while playing just 13 games and still found the end zone 12 times in ’24. He faced the Falcons just once last year, catching 5 balls on 7 targets for 62 yards in and 2 TD’s. Everything points to Mike Evans having a big start this season and here’s why. Following his hamstring injury, he returned in week 12 and was targeted on 30.2% of his routes with 3.16 yards per route run. During that time span, Puka Nacua was the only WR who averaged more at 3.84. What is really only going to make Evans one of the most deluxe plays early on is the absence of Chris Godwin to start the season. Need proof? Of the 225 routes Evans played without Chris Godwin on the field, the veteran wideout received 36.0% of the team’s targets and furthermore, over 50% came in the form of air yards.as targeted on wideout received 36.0 % of the Bucs targets on. Considering their chemistry together, Evans will for sure be the anchor for Mayfield in the passing. Lastly, Evans is a force to be reckoned with inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. He was targeted on 28.1% of team’s plays in the red zone, but that his end zone targets were utterly staggering as Baker targeted him 48.3 % of the time in the end zone. What’s most amazing is that Evans missed 4 games last year and still finished 2nd in the NFL with 18 end zone targets. Only Jamar Chase (21) had more. Evans excels against any coverage that comes his way and the Falcons allowed the 3rd most points to per game to opposing WR1 targets, not to mention they ranked 31st in points allowed to outside wide receivers. Evans is set up for a big game vs ATL.

Suggested Pick
Mike Evans o71.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

 

WR Emeka Egbuka

It seemed a foregone conclusion that Tampa Bay would draft a DE with their first pick in the draft, but they shocked opposing front offices, NFL experts and their own fan base when they selected Emeka Egbuka with their first round pick. The Ohio State alum had 81 receptions for 1,011 yards and TD’s in his senior year and has major upside in the Buccaneers pass-heavy offense. He is an extremely smart route-runner with natural hands and great ball tracking skills and word is already out that he and Baker Mayfield are already clicking. The Buccaneer QB has told the local Tampa media that Egbuka is as NFL-ready as any rookie he’s ever seen, waxing eloquent about his character, work ethic and how clean and reliable he is. The aforementioned attributes will make Egbuka an immediate impact because of his ability to to be a chain-moving machine. The rookie will see plenty of designed touches against an opponent-friendly pass defense in Atlanta who routinely gives up hefty catch totals. Emeka will thrive on Sunday with screen pass targets to go along with plenty of crossing pattern and slant routes and he even has the size to extend himself to play the outside role where the Falcons struggle mightly to defend.

Suggested Pick
Emeka Egbuka o4.5 Receptions (-155)

 

TE Cade Otton

It looked as if Cade Otton could miss time to begin the season due to a leg injury, but he was back practicing early this week and isn’t even carrying an injury designation for Sunday. The Tampa TE proved extremely valuable during the stretch 3-week stretch when both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were sidelined. He was targeted on 25% of his routes and hauled in 25 catches for 241 yards and 3 TD’s. However, on 150 routes that Evans/Godwin were on the field he was targeted just over 16% of the time. Even with Godwin and McMillan out, Baker Mayfield is going to looks to get Evans, and especially rookie Emeka Egbuka involved on Sunday. And that’s not even factoring in Bucky Irving’s ability to catch balls out of the backfield. Because of the explosive nature of this offense, Otton could very well have a decent output but despite how bad Atlanta’s pass defense was in ’24 they did manage to limit production at the tight end position, allowing the 9th fewest receptions and 6th fewest touchdowns.

Suggested Pick
Cade Otton u3.5 Receptions (-132)

QB Michael Penix

To say the Falcons fans base was furious when they selected Michael Penix with the #8 pick in the draft 2 years ago after just signing Kirk Cousins would be an understatement, but it would turn out to pay dividends as Cousins played most of the season as if he were on life support. But the jury still has a long, long time to deliberate on Penix as Penn State alum started just the last 3 games of the season where he completed a lowly 57.3% of his passes w/ 3 TD and 3 INT. Albeit a small sample size, the rookie did have the highest rate of passes thrown downfield of any QB. The problem Penix is going to face on Sunday is the Todd Bowles aggressive rate in pressuring the quarterback. Tampa Bay blitzed on 37.3% of its opponent dropbacks (2nd most) in ’24 and among QB’s with a minimum of 100+ pass attempts, Penix ranked 2nd to last in completion percentage with 0 TD’s. To make matters worse, RT Kaleb McGary (knee) is already out for the season and if that’s not bad enough, Atlanta’s opposite LT Storm Norton will miss the first few weeks of the season. All in all, it’s just a pretty grim outlook for Penix this Sunday.

Suggested Pick
Michael Penix u1.5 Pass Touchdowns (-143)

 

RB Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson had a breakout 2nd season for Atlanta last year. He finished 3rd in the NFL in rushing with 1,456 yards, while logging 61 catches for 431 yards. By season’s end he had totaled 1,887 all-purpose yards out of the backfield (only Saquan Barkley and Derrick Henry had more). It’s no doubt Robinson has a bright future ahead of him. The problem on Sunday is he will face a vaunted Tampa Bay rush defense that allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs last season and that was without Kalijah Kancy who didn’t return until the back half of last season. Vita Vea is a monster and that’s what really makes running inside the tackles next to impossible for opposing RB’s. In two games vs the Bucs last season, Bijan ran for just 61 and 63 yards while combining for 59 yards receiving. With that said, it’s hard to ever take Robinson’s under rushing yards total because of his ability to break one off, however the value stands in TB’s mindboggling rush defense in the first 15 minutes. The Buccaneers allowed an average of just 14.2 yards rushing per game in the first quarter in ’24, ranking them first by a landslide. In 2 games vs TB last season, Bijan Robinson in the first quarter rushed for 12 yards and 1 yard.

Suggested Pick
Bijan Robinson u15.5 1Q Rush Yards (-111)

 

WR Drake London

Drake London was quite impressive last season as he racked up 100 catches for 1,271 yards and 9 TD’s, and he did his with a suspect Kirk Cousins at quarterback. He led all NFL wide receivers with 62% of the team’s end zone targets, nearly doubling his number from the previous season. The Falcons WR had just one game of 100+ yards with Kirk Cousins, but ironically that came against Tampa Bay where he caught 12 balls for 154 yards and a TD. London was limited to just 4 catches for 34 yads in his other game vs the Bucs. The Falcons WR did seem to flourish in 3 games under Penix where he posted games of 106 and 187 yards. The biggest question for Drake London on Sunday is how Penix will handle the blitzing pressure of Todd Bowles defense. While his numbers weren’t very impressive, he did target London 44.6% of time when under pressure. Darnell Mooney is still questionable and if he doesn’t go that’s going to create an uptick in London’s target share. It’s no secret the Buccaneers secondary has been vulnerable deep down the field, but they’re coming into this game healthy so that could make a difference in limiting London’s yardage, however I expect Penix to look his way early and often in this one.

Suggested Pick
Drake London o6.5 Receptions (+104)

 

WR Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney was able to finally return to practice after missing the summer due to a shoulder injury, but he is currently listed as a game time decision. Mooney finished the ’24 season with 64 receptions for 992 yards and 5 TD’s, doubling his production in the last 2 years he spent in Chicago. Drake London is far and away the primary number one receiver in Atlanta, so Mooney will most likely be up and down throughout the year. Interestingly enough, as it relates to Sunday’s matchup two of Mooney’s better games came against the Buccaneers last season. In week 5 he went for 9-105-2 TD and followed that performance up in week 8 by posting 4-86-1 TD. The problem here is two-fold. First, he is a game time decision and second, both of his games last year were with Kirk Cousins at QB. Since Mooney hurt his shoulder in week 18 we only have 2 games in which he played with Penix to look at. He caught 5 of 6 targets for 82 yards in week 16, but was rather pedestrian in week 17 catching only 2 of 5 balls thrown his way for 37 yards. There are currently no props available for Mooney as of right now, but taking into consideration the injury status and his uncertainty with Penix this is a clear pass.

Suggested Pick
Game Time Decision (No Props Available)

 

TE Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts was nothing short of disappointing last season, catching just 47 of the 75 ball thrown his way for 602 yards while only finding the end zone on 4 occasions. And his production was nearly extinct in the second half of the season where he struggled to get open and had a mere 184 receiving yards. Simply put, his season was the “Pitts.” Somehow, he has still managed to land number one on the TE depth chart for the Falcons. The only silver lining to Pitts in week 1 is Tampa Bay allowed the 2nd most receptions and 6th most yards to the tight end position. On the other hand, if Mooney doesn’t play it could open up some room for Pitts, but then there’s the loss of Kaleb McGary to consider because they are going to need extra blockers with all the pressure Todd Bowles is going to bring.

Suggested Pick
Kyle Pitts u38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Buccaneers have dominated the NFC South and they are looking to win the division for the 5th consecutive season. Many people are expecting this to be a shootout, and while I don't expect Tampa Bay to shut down the Falcons, I can't help but look at how Michael Pennix struggled when under pressure last season. And nobody brings more pressure than Todd Bowles. Even without Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin, the Bucs have Baker, Bucky, Evans and Ebuka who people are going to be talking after this game. The Falcons defense was atrocious last year and Atlanta fans didn't think it could get any worse until they hired Gary Ulbrich who turned a once decent Jets defense into a complete dumpster fire. Tood Bowles may not be a great leader of men but he makes great defensive halftime adjustments. Even if Penix exceeds expectatons on Sunday, the Buccaneers will still be able to outscore ATL.

Best Bet: Buccaneers -1.5 (-108)
Lean: Over 47.5 (-110)
Buccaneers 31 Falcons 20

Anytime TD: Mike Evans (+120)

The back lefthand corner of the endzone is equivalent to Boardwalk on a Monopoly board for Mike Evans. He has recorded at least 1 touchdown in week 1 the last 3 consecutive seaons and found the end zone 2 times in his one start vs Atlanta last season. Evans will be facing a Falcons defense who gave up 34 passing TD's (2nd most) in '24 and they will have a pair of rookies in their secondary.

 

First TD Longshot: Kyle Pitts (+1600)

Kyle Pitts is coming off a very disappointing season and I'm not sure it's going to get much better in '25. But here's an interesting sidebar to the much maligned Falcons tight end. TB allowed 27 passing TD's last year and only 5 came via the TE position, but Kyle Pitts caught 2 of those and he's found the endzone 3 times in his L4 games overall vs the Bucs. If Atlanta finds themselves near the goal line and Bijan is unable to penetrate a stingy Tampa front four, Michael Penix has the ability to buy enough time and with Drake London requiring much attention I could easily see Kyle Pitts finding himself all alone in the back of the endzone.

Parlay #1 (+360)
Bucky Irving 3+ Receptions
Bijan Robinson 4+ Receptions
Emeka Egbuke 5+ Receptions

 

Parlay #2 (+750)
Buccaneers ML
Mike Evans Anytime TD
Emeka Egbuke 6+ Receptions

Parlay #3 (+2300)
Buccaneers o26.5 Team Total Points
Mike Evans 2+ TD's
Emeka Egbuka 6+ Receptions

QB Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy’s efficiency dipped last season, as his touchdown rate fell from 7.2% across 2022–23 to 4.4% in 2024, and his yards per attempt slid from 9.2 to 8.5. Still, when San Francisco had multiple stars healthy, Purdy was highly effective, averaging 266.9 yards and 8.7 YPA in those games. His rushing also ticked up with 44 scrambles for 300 yards and a score, doubling the rate from his first 21 starts. Week 1 brings a matchup against a Seattle defense that limited opponents to 230.8 passing yards per game, the 12th-fewest in the NFL. While Purdy found success against the Seahawks last year, while throwing for 414 yards and 4 touchdowns in two meetings. The 49ers’ offensive identity remains balanced, built on efficiency and explosive plays rather than volume. With Christian McCaffrey healthy and San Francisco’s defense built to control pace, Purdy may not be asked to throw often in a game script that favors running the ball.

Suggested Play:
'U' 29.5 Pass Attempts (–115)

 

RB Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey played only 4 games last season due to calf, Achilles, and PCL injuries, but whenever he was active, San Francisco’s offense leaned on him. He logged an 82% snap share or higher in each of his 3 full contests, underscoring just how important he is to their game plan when healthy. The 49ers acquired Brian Robinson to provide depth, but McCaffrey remains the clear workhorse. His Week 1 matchup comes against a Seattle defense that was vulnerable on the ground last year, giving up 4.6 yards per carry, ranking 9th-worst in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.25), and allowing 36.7 receiving yards per game to running backs (11th-most). In his lone appearance against the Seahawks last season, McCaffrey turned 19 carries into 79 yards and added 4 receptions for 27 more, showing he can produce even against a defense familiar with him. With San Francisco expected to ride its star back in a divisional opener, McCaffrey’s dual-threat role puts him in a strong spot to deliver.

Suggested Play:
'O' 102.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (–115)

 

WR Ricky Pearsall

Ricky Pearsall’s rookie season was derailed by injuries and an off-field incident, but he showed why San Francisco spent a 1st-round pick on him when he closed the year with 14 catches, 210 yards, and 2 touchdowns on 18 targets across his final two games. A full offseason with Brock Purdy has helped solidify their chemistry, and Pearsall has worked as the 49ers’ top wideout in camp while Jauan Jennings has been sidelined. Seattle’s defense is no easy draw: the Seahawks held receivers to 7.40 yards per target last year, the 7th-lowest mark in the NFL, though they also gave up 12.2 receptions per game to the position (12th-most). That profile suggests volume can be found underneath, but explosive plays are harder to come by. With defenses keying on Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle, Pearsall is positioned to handle early targets and chain-moving routes, giving him a chance to carry his late-2024 momentum forward.

Suggested Play:
'O' 4.5 Receptions (–125)

 

WR Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings missed much of training camp with a calf issue and contract discussions but secured an incentive-laden deal just before Week 1. He’s coming off a breakout 2024 where his efficiency stood out, ranking 10th in yards per route run (2.47) and 7th in first downs per route (.119). Jennings commanded a 22.7% target share overall, with that number climbing to nearly 34% when Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk were sidelined. Against Seattle last year, he managed a modest 3/27 in one game but erupted for 10/91/1 in the other, showing he can stretch the field when opportunities open up. The Seahawks defense was tough overall, allowing just 7.40 yards per target to wideouts (7th-lowest), but they also surrendered 12.2 catches per game to the position, suggesting there’s room for volume-driven chunk plays. Jennings’ size and ability to win in intermediate windows make him a candidate for at least one big gain even if Brock Purdy isn’t asked to throw often.

Suggested Play:
'O' 18.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

 

TE George Kittle

George Kittle enters 2025 poised to take on an expanded role in San Francisco’s passing attack. With Deebo Samuel now in Washington and Brandon Aiyuk sidelined as he recovers from ACL and MCL injuries, Kittle’s 19.4% target share and .24 targets per route run from last year are both likely to climb. He was the most efficient tight end in the league in 2024, leading the position in yards per route run (2.88), yards per target (12.02), and yards per reception (14.18). Historically, when Samuel has been off the field, Kittle has averaged 79.4 receiving yards per game — elite production for any pass catcher. He also carries proven scoring upside against Seattle, posting 5/58/2 in their lone matchup last season. With Purdy’s attempts expected to stay modest, Kittle’s red-zone presence and ability to create chunk plays make him the most likely 49er to find the end zone.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)

QB Sam Darnold
Darnold takes over for Geno Smith to lead this offense in 2025 after a nice renaissance season with the Vikings last year. Darnold’s numbers were really solid last year, throwing for 4,319 yards, holding a 102.5 passer rating and having a 35:12 touchdown to interception ratio. In some regards, he’ll get a downgraded offense. As much as I like JSN, walking away from Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson is going to be tough. The pass blocking line also grades out worse in SEA than it was in MIN. Contrary to the Pete Carroll offenses of old, SEA was not a run-heavy offense in 2024. They ran just 34.8% of the time last season. Maybe that changes with a healthy Kenneth Walker, but Darnold will likely have to carry the load of the offense again this season. The 49ers defense lost some key guys to free agency this season, including Charvarius Ward, Dre Greenlaw and Javon Hargrave. The 49ers did have a good coverage unit last season and their best will return this season. Last season SF allowed the 3rd fewest passing yards per game (204.5), but were middle of the pack in most other defensive metrics. I’m expecting Darnold to still be building chemistry with his offense and I think this passing game could start slow in a tough divisional matchup.

 

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150)

 

RB Kenneth Walker III
Walker is healthy! A healthy Walker makes this whole offense better. The 49ers graded out really poorly in terms of run defense last season (28th) and losing DT’s Hargrave and Greenlaw won’t help matters. SF allowed the 15th most rushing yards per game last season (124.6) and the second most rushing touchdowns (24). One thing this run defense did a pretty good job at is limiting explosive runs. They ranked 20th in explosive run rate (4.2%). I still think a healthy Walker could shred in this game and it makes sense to lean on the run as Darnold continues to get comfortable. Walker had a TD rate of 4.6% last season, despite a 48.4% stuff rate. SEA was a bottom 10 unit in run blocking last season and really struggled to establish a good running game last season. Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald emphasized this offseason that they need to run the ball better this year and I think they will. They have a new offensive line coach and drafted an OL in the first round this past draft.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 59.5 Rushing Yards

RB Zach Charbonnet
Of course, Charbonnet’s ceiling will likely remain capped as long as Walker is healthy. However, he could see more work with Walker on the field this season as per the head coach. Why? Well, Charbonnet is a good runner and they’ll look to take some work away from Walker to try and keep him healthy. We don’t know exactly how improved the line will be this season, but we do get a good matchup for Charbonnet if he gets some run. With so much uncertainty in workloads, I’m not looking to back Charb as a runner, but his receiving lines interest me. Despite playing more snaps, Charb got about as much receiving work as Walker did.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 8.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
I am expecting so much from JSN this season. He truly broke out last year and I know there is even more he can show us this season. He finished 3024 with 1,130 receiving yards and averaged 7.8 targets per game. Now Metcalf and Lockett have both departed and his only competition is Cooper Kupp. JSN has played primarily out of the slot in his short career. Last season, he played out of the slot 83.6% of snaps. What’s interesting is that Cooper Kupp has also played primarily out of the slot in his career. The head coach came out this offseason and said that JSN has the ability to play a lot more outside, so I’m expecting more of that this season. This could be the evolution to make him an elite WR in the NFL. Luckily for him, despite having a new OC and Quarterback, Darnold has propped up a team’s WR1 in the past. SF’s defensive scheme included plenty of man coverage last season. JSN saw a big jump in yards per route run when lined up against man (2.36) vs being lined up against zone (1.41). All aboard the JSN hype train!

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Cooper Kupp
It’s hard to know what Kupp has left in the tank. His metrics have declined each of the last four season. Here is his ranking in terms of ability to get open over the last four seasons - 2021 (15), 2022 (71), 2023 (102) and 2024 (141). Yikes. When McVay walks away from a guy he’s loved in the past, it’s certainly a major red flag. His decline along with the tougher matchup makes me shy away from any overs, despite his reception total only being at 3.5. Without an ability to get open, I’m not sure that Darnold will lean on him in any capacity.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)(Lean)

 

TE A.J. Barner
Barner is a 23-year old that was drafted in the 4th round just a season ago. Noah Fant is gone, so Barner steps into the TE1 role. He has shown solid ability to both block and pass receive so he should be on the field plenty. Last season as the TE2, he finished with 30 catches for 245 yards and four touchdowns. He averaged 8.2 yards per reception. The matchup isn’t great, as SF only allowed 688 yards and 5 touchdowns to opposing TE’s in 2024. SEA did go out and draft a freakishly athletic TE this season, Elijah Arroyo, who may cut into his workload at some point. It typically takes time for TE’s to adjust to the NFL, so I’m expecting Barner to be an outlet option early in the season. Klint Kubiak has also shown a willingness to run a lot of 12 personnel packages, which means Barner and Arroyo could both see the field together. At this point in his career, Barner is a much better blocker than Arroyo is projected to me. Darnold has shown a willingness to target TE’s in the past and although he’s not an elite prospect, he’s a sneaky play here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

I think this is a tough spot for Sam Darnold in his first start against an experianced 49ers group. McCaffrey said he is healthy and ready to go. Yes we have heard that before but some tredns have to come to an end right.... Right? 

Best Bet: (49ers ML -122)
Lean: (Over 43.5 -120)
49ers 27 Seahawks 20 

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: (49ers) George Kittle +140

George Kittle enters 2025 poised to take on an expanded role in San Francisco’s passing attack. With Deebo Samuel now in Washington and Brandon Aiyuk sidelined as he recovers from ACL and MCL injuries, Kittle’s 19.4% target share and .24 targets per route run from last year are both likely to climb. He was the most efficient tight end in the league in 2024, leading the position in yards per route run (2.88), yards per target (12.02), and yards per reception (14.18). Historically, when Samuel has been off the field, Kittle has averaged 79.4 receiving yards per game — elite production for any pass catcher. He also carries proven scoring upside against Seattle, posting 5/58/2 in their lone matchup last season. With Purdy’s attempts expected to stay modest, Kittle’s red-zone presence and ability to create chunk plays make him the most likely 49er to find the end zone.

Best Pick: (Seahawks) Kenneth Walker III +125

We get a healthy Walker to start the season and he faces a 49er's defense that gave up the second most rushing touchdowns last season and lost their starting DT in free agency. Walker has rushed for at least one touchdown in each of his last 2 games vs San Fran.

1st Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (49ers) Ricky Pearsall +1000

With Deebo Samuel traded, Brandon Aiyuk sidelined on the PUP list, and Jauan Jennings just working back from a calf issue, Ricky Pearsall steps into Week 1 as San Francisco’s top wideout. He flashed his potential late last season with 210 yards and 2 touchdowns across the final two games, and now he has a clear path to immediate opportunities in the red zone and on scripted plays. Given his role as Brock Purdy’s primary receiving option to open the year, Pearsall has a strong chance to be the one who caps San Francisco’s first scoring drive.

Best Bet: (Seahawks) Jaxon Smith-Njigba +1000

JSN becomes the new number one WR after the departure of Metcalf and Lockett. They'll likely move him more around the field this season after signing Kupp and should get some nice man on man matchups. A nice value for the top receiver in an offense.

Longshot: (Seahawks) A.J. Barner +2000

Despite being the TE2 last season behind Noah Fant, Barner still found the endzone 4 times as a rookie. He steps into the TE1 role this season and Darnold has shown a willingness to throw to the TE in the redzone. His ability to block should keep him on the field plenty in this one.

Parlay #1 (+700)

Brock Purdy 'U' 30.5 Pass Attempts
Jauan Jennings 'O' 19.5 Longest Reception
George Kittle ATD

Parlay #2 (+176)

Darnold under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 40+ Receiving Yards
Kenneth Walker III 40+ Rushing Yards

Parlay #3 (+691)

Kenneth Walker III Touchdown
Zach Charbonnet 15+ Receiving Yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20+ Yard Reception

QB Cam Ward

We finally get to see the number one overall pick in action this Sunday! Ward will make his debut with a revamped offensive line in TEN and at least one go to weapon in Ridley. Coming out of college, he’s known for a quick release and a big arm. Unfortunately, he’s got one of the toughest matchups in week 1. In 2024, DEN’s defense allowed the 6th lowest passer rating to opposing QB’s (86.2), 6th fewest yards per attempt (6.8), 8th most interceptions forced (15) and the highest sack rate of all defenses (8.9%). They also allowed the 5th lowest aDOT last season (7.2). Rookie QB’s typically struggle in week 1 as they adjust to the NFL and getting an elite defense doesn’t make it easier. Of the last 4 rookie QB’s to debut, none have surpassed 185 passing yards: Caleb Williams (93), Bo Nix (138), Jayden Daniels (184), and Bryce Young (146). I think the only look is unders here.

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 193.5 Passing Yards (-110)
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (-145)

 

RB Tony Pollard

Pollard had a solid 2024 season in terms of yardage (1,079), but only finished with 5 touchdowns. Not surprising, as TEN was the worst team in 2024. He held a decent 4.2 yards per carry. Now, to give Pollard some credit, he was running behind the 31st ranked run blocking line in the league. The Titans did work hard this offseason to improve this line and it should be better this season. Unfortunately, the problem here is the matchup. DEN is great against the pass, but they are even better against the run. Last season they allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards (1639), second lowest yards per carry (3.87) and the 3rd lowest rushing TD rate (2.4%). That does not bode well for a team that may find themselves in a negative game script. With Spears on IR, the backfield should be mostly Tony’s. Still, this isn’t a good spot for Pollard.

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR Calvin Ridley

Ridley clearly showed good chemistry with Ward in the pre-season and in practice this off-season. Let’s be honest, he’s the only reliable receiver Ward has. I think the volume could be there for Ridley, but I’m not sure about the production. DEN’s defense has allowed the 4th lowest aDOT (7.3) to opposing WR’s, the 11th lowest catch rate (70.%) and the 10th lowest YAC/REC (5.19). He’ll likely get Surtain treatment, who tends to shadow top WR’s, and there is no reason he wouldn't here. I’m expecting the volume, but not the production here. As a rookie QB, expect Ward to continue to look Ridley’s way. I’m playing unders.

Suggested Picks

‘U’54.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Tyler Lockett

Lockett comes over as a free agent signing from Seattle. Unfortunately, Lockett took a step back as a receiver in the offense this past season. In 2024, he rated out as a 65.6 PFF rating, compared to the 77.6 and 77.7 the two seasons prior. I’m just not expecting much from the 10-year vet in a really tough matchup. Now, with that being said they are more susceptible to the slot. DEN has allowed the 8th most receiving yards to opposing slot WR’s (1,421). If you are going to take a shot, this is the one to take.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 21.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

TE Chig Okonkwo

Chig has been a top three pass catcher for TEN for each of the past 3 seasons. DEN has been solid against TE’s, allowing the 21st most yards to opposing TE’s in 2024. Chig is a pass catching TE and lined up in the slot the 2nd most of any pass catcher last season (41.6%). He held an 5.7, despite having some speed in the open field. He might continue to be a safety outlet for Ward early in the season. Especially in this matchup against DEN, Ward might be under pressure early and often. Chig can be both an outlet and a guy that can run after the catch. Last season he ran route on almost 90% of snaps. That shouldn't change much here.

 

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-108)

QB Bo Nix

Bo Nix delivered a breakout rookie season, throwing for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns while adding 430 rushing yards and 4 scores on the ground. His year started slowly with just 4.8 yards per attempt, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions across his first four games, but from Week 5 onward he found his rhythm, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt with 28 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in his final 13 contests. Beyond the passing numbers, Nix leaned heavily on his legs to extend plays, logging 50 scrambles in 2024, the most in the NFL. That mobility was critical behind Denver’s evolving offensive line and fits directly into this Week 1 matchup. Chicago’s defense allowed the fewest passing yards per game (189.0) last year but was far more vulnerable to quarterback mobility, giving up 25.6 rushing yards per game to the position. With added support in the passing game from offseason acquisitions like Evan Engram, Nix will have more options through the air, but his scrambling ability is likely to be just as important against a defense designed to limit big plays downfield.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 19.5 Rushing Yards (–115)

 

RB JK Dobbins / RB RJ Harvey

Broncos backs RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins form a new-look tandem that gives Sean Payton both explosiveness and experience in the run game. Harvey arrives from UCF with fresh legs and a reputation for hitting big plays, while Dobbins, when healthy, has shown burst and vision as a pro. The matchup in Week 1 is intriguing because Tennessee allowed 33.6% of their rushing yards on explosive runs last season, the third-highest rate in the league. That profile suggests a defense capable of limiting volume but vulnerable to chunk plays, making both Harvey and Dobbins candidates to pop a long run if Denver’s offensive line creates space. Payton has historically favored a committee approach, and the mix of Harvey’s quick-twitch ability with Dobbins’ downhill style could test a Titans front that was otherwise solid in traditional rushing metrics but leaky when backs reached the second level.

Suggested Play:
JK Dobbins 'O' 11.5 Yards Longest Rush (–110)

 

WR Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton is coming off his strongest season yet, posting his second career 1,000-yard campaign while setting career-highs in receptions (81) and targets (135) to go along with eight touchdowns. He ranked third in the league in air yards share at 44.9% and delivered 2.13 yards per route run, with his production taking off once Bo Nix found his rhythm midseason. From Week 8 through the playoffs, Sutton averaged 79.9 receiving yards per game, surpassing 70 yards in eight of 11 contests and clearing 97 yards five times. He has consistently stretched the field throughout his career, holding a 14.1 yards per reception average and never dipping below 13.0. The challenge in Week 1 is a Titans secondary that was one of the league’s most efficient in 2024, leaning on Cover 3 and Cover 4 on 55.1% of snaps, where Sutton managed 1.98 yards per route run and 0.27 targets per route run. Tennessee also added shutdown corner L’Jarius Sneed ahead of last season, and his presence raises the likelihood that Sutton sees shadow coverage in a matchup that already tilts toward the defense.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 58.5 Receiving Yards (–115)

 

WR Marvin Mims

Marvin Mims flashed big-play ability late in 2024 once his role began to expand. After averaging only 1.6 touches per game through his first 25 appearances, he closed the year with 5.5 touches per game over his final eight, topping 44 receiving yards in six of his last seven contests and recording at least three receptions in each of his final six. He ranked fifth among receivers in yards per route run at 2.78 and 14th in targets per route run at 0.28, while also ranking fourth in designed targets with 24 among players with 50 or more looks. Even on a limited 28.1 percent route share, he averaged 62 yards and scored six times over his final seven regular-season games. He was particularly efficient against zone, producing 2.38 yards per route run and 0.27 targets per route run across 79 routes against Cover 3 and Cover 4, coverages Tennessee used on 55.1 percent of snaps last year. Now expected to see a larger role in 2025 and reportedly healthy after a minor groin injury, Mims is well positioned to hit on at least one explosive play in this matchup.

Suggested Play:
'O' 18.5 Yard Longest Reception (-110)

 

TE Evan Engram

Evan Engram was among the most involved tight ends in the league last season, ranking third in target share at 23.5 percent and fifth in targets per route run. He dealt with shoulder and hamstring issues that limited him at times, but even so he maintained steady involvement and finished 20th in yards per route run. In his two previous healthy seasons, he ranked 13th and 14th in YPRR and was consistently inside the top 12 in target share, showing that when fully healthy he remains a reliable option. One area where Engram has quietly excelled is against man coverage, ranking fourth and eighth in yards per route run versus man in 2023 and 2024, respectively. That skill set makes him an effective chain-mover and matchup problem when aligned against linebackers or safeties. The concern is that his preseason usage dipped, running routes on just 64 percent of dropbacks in the team’s third preseason game. If that rate carries over, it would mark a clear reduction from his 2024 workload and cap his ceiling. The Week 1 matchup is also difficult: Tennessee leaned on Cover 3 and Cover 4 on 55.1 percent of defensive snaps and allowed only 37.4 receiving yards per game to tight ends, the second-fewest in the NFL. Engram’s talent and proven efficiency give him upside in Sean Payton’s system, but the combination of reduced preseason usage and a disciplined Titans defense makes this an uphill battle out of the gates.

Suggested Play:
'U' 38.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Poor Ward has one of the tough matchups right off the bat facing the Broncos who allowed the 6th LOWEST passer rating to opposing QB’s (86.2). I think Ward rookie jitters combined with this elites defense =‘s are low scoring game for the Titans. Not going to much in depth as I did on the guide above. Give me the Broncos and team total under for Titans

Best Bet: (Broncos -6.5 -150)
Lean: (Titans 'U' 16.5 Pts -120)
Titans 13 Broncos 24

 

Anytime Touchdow Picks

 

Longshot: Marvin Mims (Broncos) +250
Marvin Mims closed 2024 strong with six touchdowns over his final seven games and enters 2025 as Denver’s No. 2 receiver behind Courtland Sutton. He draws a favorable home matchup against a Titans secondary that struggled last year, with L’Jarius Sneed showing decline, and should see steady snaps in two-wide sets with Troy Franklin slotted as the WR3. After shaking off a minor groin injury in camp, Mims looks ready to contribute, and his speed makes him a threat to capitalize on a Tennessee defense that could wear down quickly in Denver’s altitude.

Longshot: Chig Okonkwo (Titans) +550
Chig may be the secret weapon for Ward this season as defenses focus on Ridley. Chig lines up in the slot where DEN is more suceptible and he can score in both short yardage and breakaway runs.

1st Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: Courtland Sutton (Broncos) +900
Sutton is coming off a career year with 135 targets, 81 receptions, and eight touchdowns, giving him 18 scores over the past two seasons. Sutton commanded 44.9 percent of the Broncos’ air yards in 2024 and averaged nearly 80 receiving yards per game once Bo Nix settled in as the starter, topping 70 yards in eight of his final 11 contests. His size and ability to win in contested situations make him the natural red-zone option for Nix, and that usage is unlikely to change even with more weapons around him. Tennessee’s defense leaned on Cover 3 and Cover 4 looks last year and now features L’Jarius Sneed in a shadow role, but Sutton’s volume and proven track record near the goal line make him the likeliest Bronco to find the end zone first.

Longshot: Tony Pollard (Titans) +850
A nice price on the clear lead back for TEN in this game. Spears heading to the IR clears the way for Pollard to get almost all of the work in the backfield.

Parlay #1 (+485)

Bo Nix 'O' 19.5 Rush Yards
Courtland Sutton 'U' 58.5 Receiving Yards
Evan Engram "U' 36.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (+114)

DEN Broncos -2.5
Cam Ward 1+ Interception
Chig Okonkwo 2+ Receptions

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff was highly efficient against Green Bay last season when working off play action, completing 24 of 27 passes with a 115.4 rating across two meetings. Play action fueled Detroit’s offense all year, as Goff led the league with 2,076 passing yards and ranked 2nd with 15 touchdowns on such plays. But there are reasons to be cautious in Week 1. Green Bay’s defense limited big passing plays in 2024, allowing a completion rate of just 9.4% on deep throws, the 8th-lowest in the NFL. Detroit also experienced significant turnover on its offensive line this offseason, losing Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow to retirement and veteran right guard Kevin Zeitler in free agency. The Lions replaced Ragnow with Graham Glasgow and will rely on Christian Mahogany and rookie Tate Ratledge to handle the interior, while tackles Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker remain the stabilizing forces on the edges. With uncertainty in protection and a defense that excels at eliminating deep completions, Goff’s chances of hitting a long connection appear limited in this matchup.

Suggested Play:
'U' 34.5 Yard Longest Completion (–115)

 

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs enters 2025 as Detroit’s most explosive playmaker out of the backfield, coming off a season with 250 touches and 16 total touchdowns. He showed his game-breaking ability by averaging 3.34 yards after contact per rush and scoring once every 12.8 carries. While David Montgomery remains the thumper between the tackles, Gibbs is the space player who can tilt games with his speed. Week 1 brings a difficult test on the ground, as Green Bay’s defense led the league in stuff rate at 50.8% last year, consistently shutting down runs before they got started. That matchup funnels production to Gibbs’ receiving role, where his quickness in the open field becomes the best counterpunch to a defensive front now strengthened by Micah Parsons. Expect Detroit to scheme touches for him as an outlet in the passing game to avoid early-down stalemates.

Suggested Play:
'O' 23.5 Receiving Yards (–115)

 

RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery has been one of the league’s most consistent scoring threats, finding the end zone in 75% of his games over the past two seasons. He averaged 83 rushing yards per game last year and totaled 12 touchdowns, despite missing the final three contests with a knee injury. Montgomery also added surprising efficiency as a receiver, leading all running backs with at least 50 routes in yards per route run at 2.24. He remains Detroit’s most trusted option near the goal line, but changes in offensive leadership and personnel add uncertainty. The Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and reshuffled their interior offensive line, leaving questions about how stable the run game will be in 2025. The Packers present a tough challenge up front, leading the NFL with a 50.8% stuff rate in 2024, and their addition of Micah Parsons makes this matchup even stiffer. Montgomery’s reliability around the goal line still gives him paths to value, but he’ll need to earn tough yards against one of the league’s most disruptive fronts.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125)

 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been Jared Goff’s most dependable option for moving the chains, and Week 1 at Lambeau should be no different. He’s established himself as a high-volume receiver who thrives on precision routes and reliability in traffic. The challenge here is that Green Bay’s defense was disciplined against yards after the catch in 2024, allowing just 5.15 YAC per reception, the 9th-lowest mark in the league. That ability to limit extra yardage puts pressure on St. Brown to win on timing and separation rather than breaking plays open once the ball is in his hands. With Detroit breaking in a new offensive coordinator and reshuffled interior line, Goff is likely to lean on his most trusted target to sustain drives, even if efficiency after the catch is capped.

Suggested Play:
'O' 6.5 Receptions (–120)

 

TE Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta spent much of last season fighting through an ankle injury, which kept his role muted in the first half of the year. From Weeks 1–10, he ran routes on 64.8% of dropbacks with just a 10.9% target share, averaging 40.1 yards per game and drawing first reads on 12.6% of his routes. Once his health improved, his role expanded dramatically. From Weeks 12–18, his route rate climbed to 77% and his target share jumped to 18.6%, boosting him to 51.4 yards per game with first reads on 18.5% of routes. That late-season surge included a 5-catch, 54-yard performance against Green Bay in Week 14. The Packers were vulnerable to the position last year, giving up the 8th-most yards and ranking 11th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. With defenses keyed on Amon-Ra St. Brown underneath, LaPorta’s ability to earn first reads and move the chains makes him a strong secondary weapon in this matchup.

Suggested Play:
'O' 46.5 Receiving Yards (–115)

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love enters 2025 looking to rebound after an injury-plagued season that ended with thumb surgery on his non-throwing hand, a procedure that’s now fully behind him. Green Bay gave him added help by drafting 1st-round receiver Matthew Golden, which could push the offense toward a higher pass rate. Love has been streaky but still flashes the arm talent to attack downfield when given time. This matchup against Detroit offers some opportunity, as the Lions’ defense allowed 7.22 yards per attempt last season — the 11th-highest rate in the NFL — despite their reputation as a tough unit. Still, Detroit’s pass rush is capable of dictating tempo, and if the Lions’ offense controls the game on the ground, Love’s overall attempts could be limited. Efficiency and selective deep shots will be the key for him to succeed.

Suggested Play:
'U' 33.5 Pass Attempts (–115)

 

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs made an immediate impact in his first season with Green Bay, rushing for 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns on 301 carries while also extending his streak of 30+ receptions to five straight years. At 220 pounds, Jacobs gives the Packers a physical tone-setter in the backfield, and he rarely comes off the field given the lack of proven depth behind him in Christopher Brooks and Emanuel Wilson. Green Bay’s offense under Matt LaFleur already ranked 5th in Expected Points Added per Play and 6th in Rush EPA/Play last season, and Jacobs is positioned to keep that efficiency steady. Detroit’s defense was solid overall in 2024 but did allow 7.22 yards per pass attempt (11th-highest), which may force them to devote extra resources to coverage and leave lanes lighter against the run. With Jacobs handling over 20 touches per game last year and his red-zone role unquestioned, he carries strong potential to power the Packers’ offense in their opener.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (–120)

 

WR Jayden Reed

Jayden Reed heads into his second season as one of Jordan Love’s most dynamic weapons, offering versatility from the slot and on schemed touches. He showed consistent separation skills as a rookie and was a frequent option in the red zone, where his quickness created mismatches against linebackers and safeties. The Week 1 matchup with Detroit will test his efficiency: the Lions allowed 7.22 yards per attempt last year (11th-highest in the NFL), but they were much more disciplined at limiting yards after the catch, holding opponents to just 5.15 per reception, 9th-lowest. Reed’s role underneath and across the middle sets him up for steady involvement, but breaking off explosive gains could be more difficult against this defense. His ability to turn quick passes into chunk plays will determine whether he outperforms expectations in the opener.

Suggested Play:
'O' 4.5 Receptions (–115)

 

WR Matthew Golden

Matthew Golden is set to join the Packers as one of Green Bay’s full-time receivers, likely filling the vertical role Christian Watson handled last year against single-high coverage. Detroit, now led by defensive coordinator Kelvin Shepard, has consistently leaned on single-high looks (54–57% over the past three years), a tendency that creates downfield opportunities. Golden’s speed is a distinct advantage over Lions corners Terrion Arnold (64.2% catch rate, 100.4 passer rating allowed in 2024) and D.J. Reed (58.3%, 91.7), both of whom run in the mid-4.5s compared to Golden’s 4.29. He may not see a high number of targets, but the chances he gets are likely to be deep shots with game-changing potential.

Suggested Play:

'O' 18.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

 

TE Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft emerged last season as Green Bay’s clear long-term option at tight end, showing strong efficiency with top-tier marks in yards per route run, yards after the catch, and forced missed tackles among his position group. The Packers often used him on designed looks (18.5% designed target rate), even if he wasn’t the first read on most plays, and his ability to create after the catch made him a valuable outlet in their scheme. His Week 1 test comes against a Detroit defense that was one of the league’s stingiest versus tight ends in 2024, allowing the third-fewest receiving yards and ranking 14th in yards per reception, holding Kraft to just 3.5 catches and 37.5 yards on average in two meetings last season.

Suggested Play:
'U' 38.5 Receiving Yards (–115)

The stakes feel unusually high for a Week 1 matchup, given how much division results matter in NFC playoff positioning. Openers are always unpredictable, though—teams shake off camp rust and roll out wrinkles opponents haven’t seen on tape. It’s tough to expect Micah Parsons to be a major factor right away after missing the entire preseason, so his snaps could be limited. Where Green Bay may hold an advantage is in stability: Detroit enters this season breaking in new coordinators and replacing six other assistants after a wave of departures. That’s a lot of turnover for a staff heading into its first live test, and it could tilt just enough in the Packers’ favor to escape Lambeau with a close win.

Best Bet: Packers -2.5
Lean: (Over 47.5)
Packers 28 Lions 21

 

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Lions) David Montgomery +125

David Montgomery has been one of the league’s most consistent scoring threats, finding the end zone in 75% of his games over the past two seasons. He averaged 83 rushing yards per game last year and totaled 12 touchdowns, despite missing the final three contests with a knee injury. Montgomery also added surprising efficiency as a receiver, leading all running backs with at least 50 routes in yards per route run at 2.24. He remains Detroit’s most trusted option near the goal line, but changes in offensive leadership and personnel add uncertainty. The Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and reshuffled their interior offensive line, leaving questions about how stable the run game will be in 2025. The Packers present a tough challenge up front, leading the NFL with a 50.8% stuff rate in 2024, and their addition of Micah Parsons makes this matchup even stiffer. Montgomery’s reliability around the goal line still gives him paths to value, but he’ll need to earn tough yards against one of the league’s most disruptive fronts.

 

Best Bet: (Packers) Josh Jacobs +120

Josh Jacobs made an immediate impact in his first season with Green Bay, rushing for 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns on 301 carries while also extending his streak of 30+ receptions to five straight years. At 220 pounds, Jacobs gives the Packers a physical tone-setter in the backfield, and he rarely comes off the field given the lack of proven depth behind him in Christopher Brooks and Emanuel Wilson. Green Bay’s offense under Matt LaFleur already ranked 5th in Expected Points Added per Play and 6th in Rush EPA/Play last season, and Jacobs is positioned to keep that efficiency steady. Detroit’s defense was solid overall in 2024 but did allow 7.22 yards per pass attempt (11th-highest), which may force them to devote extra resources to coverage and leave lanes lighter against the run. With Jacobs handling over 20 touches per game last year and his red-zone role unquestioned, he carries strong potential to power the Packers’ offense in their opener.

 

1st Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Lions) Amon-Ra St. Brown +750

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been Jared Goff’s most trusted target, and his track record against Green Bay highlights just how reliable he is. In two matchups last season, he hauled in 12 of 13 targets. Detroit’s offense had no trouble putting points on the board in those games, averaging 29 per contest, but St. Brown wasn’t the one finishing drives. With defenses likely to shade coverage toward Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta in the red zone, St. Brown’s ability to separate quickly makes him an ideal candidate to cash in early. His volume and precision route-running give him as strong a chance as anyone on the field to strike first.

Parlay #1 (+700)
Jared Goff 'U' 33.5 Longest Pass Completion
Jahmyr Gibbs 'O' 23.5 Receiving Yards
David Montgomery ATD

 

Parlay #2 (+234)

Josh Jacobs ATD

Matthew Golden 50+

Golden 'O' 3.5 Receptions

 

QB C.J. Stroud

Stroud is coming off a down year. After a stellar 4,557 yard, 26 touchdown and 5 interception season in his rookie year, he followed it up with a mediocre 4,254, 21 and 13 season. Now, it wasn’t completely his fault, as his line was bad and his top WR was injured for most of the season. Are we getting a bounce back from Stroud this season? I tend to think so. The coach has already said that they would give Stroud the ability to audible this season and Nico is healthy. They also spent draft capital on the WR position in both the 2nd and 3rd round. Luckily for Stroud, he gets a solid matchup in week 1. LAR ranked 10th in passing yards allowed per game last season. They also allowed the 8th highest yards per attempt and 20th highest passer rating (95.9). In terms of touchdowns, they allowed the 6th (tied) most passing touchdowns last season (29) and the 2nd highest hero percentage (5.0%), an efficiency-related statistic. This looks likes a nice bounce back spot for Stroud.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 232.5 Passing Yards (-110)

 

RB Nick Chubb

Man, did Nick Chubb look bad last season… In 8 games he finished in CLE with 332 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns and a brutal 3.3 yards per carry. Now he looks to head the HOU backfield with Mixon heading to IR to start 2025. He hasn’t looked particularly good in pre-season either, so he might just not be the same elite runner we are accustomed to. As for the matchup, it’s decent. LAR allowed the 11th rushing yards per game last season. They have, however, done a great job at limiting explosive plays, ranking 26th in explosive play rate (3.6%). They also have allowed a low TD rate (2.7%), ranking 26th this season. The Rams have not done well in stuff rate (37.0%), ranking just 30th. If the workload is there, then so could the yards. That makes me hesitant on a lower line. With the workload uncertainty, Chubb’s un-explosiveness and LAR’s ability to prevent explosive runs, the longest rush prop looks the easiest to fade.

Suggested Picks
LR ‘U’ 11.5 Rushing Yards

 

WR Nico Collins

STUD. That is what Nico is when healthy. In 2024, Nico had 1,209 yards and 8 touchdowns in 14 games. He missed some time with a hamstring injury, but if we get a full season out of him, there is no doubt he’ll be a top 3-5 WR in the NFL statistically. If we are expecting a bounce back from Stroud, that only can bode well for Nico too. The Rams weren’t great against the run in 2024, but also weren’t great against the pass either. They allowed the 10th most receiving yards per game to opposing WR’s (241.4), 8th most yards per route run (11.59) and 6th most yards after the catch per reception (6.02). LAR played the 4th most zone last season and Collins was great vs zone. He held a 10.9 aDOT, 22% Target Share and 32% team yardage share. There is no doubt Collins should be in for a nice game.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Anytime Touchdown (+145)

 

WR Jayden Higgins

Higgins was drafted in the 2nd round (34th overall) in this year’s NFL draft and will slot in behind Collins and Kirk to start the season. Now that Kirk is likely to be sidelined in week 1, Higgins gets immediately pushed into the spotlight as Stroud’s number two wide receiver. One thing we know about Higgins out of Iowa State is that he has good hands. He held just a 1.4% drop rate in college. He also ran a 4.47 at 6’4, 220 pounds. With good route running he could be a really nice receiver in the future. As for the short term, he’ll likely line up across from Collins, but it’s hard to project what we’ll get from him. Better just to wait and see what he and the other rookie, Jaylin Noel, will produce in Kirk’s absence.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE Dalton Schultz

Schultz has been reliable for HOU with 600+ receiving yards with 59+ receptions in each of the last 2 seasons. LAR was susceptible to TE success last season, allowing 1,101 receiving yards (4th most) and 7 receiving touchdowns (8th most). As with most TE’s that as more possession pass catchers, Schultz performs better against zone. Schultz holds a solid 14% team yardage, 9.31 yards per reception and 17% first read rate. However, he didn’t have one touchdown last season against zone coverage!

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-155)

Rams Team Overview Not Available

I think this is a bounceback season for the Texans and pull off a little upset in Week 1 

 

Best Bet: (Texans +3.5 -125 )
Lean: (Over 46.5 -110)
Texans 27 Rams 20

 

Anytime Touchdow Picks

Best Pick Isaac Guerendo -125
As we’ve discussed, workload is hard to pinpoint for the 3rd string starter, but he does find himself in a nice matchup against a Bears team that is bottom 12 in defensive success against rushing attacks this season. He found the endzone last week and no reason he shouldn't this week as well.

Best Pick: Nico Collins (Texans) +145
Really like this spot for Nico, as a guy that has performed really well agsint zone coverage. He really doesn't have a secondary WR to take away targets and the run game could easily struggle here.

Longshot Keenan Allen +250
Allen has struck for 3 TD’s in his last 2 games, including a 2-tuddy effort vs the Lions on Thanksgiving. He owns a very solid 23.7% red zone target share, only behind DJ Moore. With both Moore and Swift questionable, we might even get some nice CLV if one or both are ruled out.

 

1st Touchdown Picks

Best Bet George Kittle +900
Kittle has 8 touchdowns on the season and leads the team with a 27% redzone target share. The obvious choice is that SF runs one in, given CHI’s defense as a run funnel, but could easily be Kittle via the long pass or play action.

Best Bet: Nico Collins +800
Everything I said above applies here. Collins is in a great spot and HOU's defense is legitamate, giving HOU a solid chance to score first. Lean on your studs!

Parlay #1 (-110)
Nico Collins 60+ Receiving Yards
Dalton Schultz 2+ Receptions
C.J. Stroud 1+ Pass Touchdown

 

Parlay #2 (+477)
Geroge Kittle TD
Brock Purdy over 229.5 Pass Yards
Jauan Jennings 50+ Rec Yard

QB Lamar Jackson
What do I need to say? Lamar is a top 3 QB in the league on a top 3 offense in the league. He can beat teams with his arm and his legs and I’m not sure BUF has the personnel to stop him (or even slow him down). Lamar had another MVP-like campaign in 2024, throwing for over 4,000 yards, a career-high 41 touchdown passes with only 4 interceptions. Add to that he ran for almost 1,000 yards as well. Just insane numbers for a quarterback, even in the league today. This Bills secondary is a bit of a mess and now their top corner, Tre-Davious White, is doubtful for the game. I think BAL will have the ability to throw all over BUF if they want to, especially with such a large threat to run. Henry will surely get his, but this could be a sneaky good day for Lamar through the air in a game with shootout potential. I trust BUF’s linebacking core more than their secondary, so I’ll trust Lamar’s arm on Sunday Night Football.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 233.5 Passing Yards (-110)
‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions (-130)

 

RB Derrick Henry
Henry showed no signs of slowing down last season as he finished with 1,921 rushing yards on 325 attempts with 16 touchdowns. He averaged 113 yards per game on the season and chipped in about 200 receiving yards. Last season, he ran all over this Bills defense for 199 rushing yards  on 24 attempts and a touchdown. BUF allowed the 14th highest yards per carry to rushers (4.51), but held the third highest stuff rate (48%). An issue for this BUF defense is they do give up yards after contact, despite a good stuff rate. They allowed the 11th highest yards after contact per attempt (2.21) last season, which is not what you want to do against a guy like Henry. Of running backs with at least 250 carries, Henry ranked 10th in stuff rate and it still didn’t matter. Why? It’s because of his home run hitting ability. I think BUF sells out to stop the run in this game, but I’m not looking to fade Henry in this spot. I think BAL wins this game and it’ll likely be behind a strong run game.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 17.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)

WR Zay Flowers
Flowers has been a 1,000 yard receiver in each of his first two seasons as a Raven and is the clear WR1 in this offense. Last season he produced 14.3 yards per reception, a 66.1% catch rate, 4 touchdowns and led the team with 112 targets. They aren’t afraid to move Flowers around the field, as he lined up on the outside 61.8% of the time and out of the slot at a 38% clip. There are some concerns with Flowers from a production standpoint. As good as BAL is, they ran a lot, ~50% of the time last season. He also hasn’t been as good of a deep threat, catching only one ball last season over 30 air yards. Last season against BUF, Flowers only caught 1 of 2 targets for 10 yards. Both of Buffalo’s starting corners are currently hurt. It looks like Tre’Davious White won’t play and Christian Benford is questionable. They may be down to their 3rd and 4th corners in week 1, the 4th being rookie Dorian Strong. Not an ideal situation for BUF, but it’s certainly something Lamar and company can exploit. I like Flowers to have a nice game here to kick off the 2025 season.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Rashod Bateman
Batemon is such a talented player, but the production hasn’t always been there. Last season he had 45 catches on 72 targets (52.8% Catch Rate) with 9 touchdowns, making for a nice season. The key for him is health and it was nice to see him play in every game last year. The Ravens must like this guy too, since they handed him a 3-year 36.75 million dollar extension in June. Outside of Andrews, Bateman constitutes their best touchdown option through the air. He’s primarily an outside WR so he should see these weaker corners plenty. The last time he saw this BUF defense, he had 4 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. Last season Bateman had plenty of looks down the field. He held a 15.0 aDOT, 24.1% air yards share and 11.28 yards per target. It’s hard to know exactly how he’ll be deployed in this game, but I think he should be locked in for at least 5 targets.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-148)

WR DeAndre Hopkins
The elite days of DeAndre Hopkins are clearly behind us, but he could still be a useful role player in this BAL offense. However, being the third option in a run-heavy offense isn’t an ideal situation for Hopkins. His low lines for both receiving yards and receptions paint that picture. His numbers last season between TEN and KC were just poor. He held a 13.8% target share, 7.63 yards per target and 1.98 yards after contact per reception. At this point, he’s simply a possession receiver, similar to the JuJu Smith-Schuster’s of the world. However, he still has good hands and is a reliable endzone target. It’s hard not to jump on these low lines so I’ll bite for week 1, but don’t expect too much production out of him this season.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Receptions (-116)

TE Mark Andrews
What a bounce back from Andrews after a pair of underwhelming seasons. He started 2024 ice cold and it looked like he was washed. In weeks 1 through 4, he had just 6 catches on 9 targets for 65 yards and no touchdowns. Crazy considering he finished 2025 with a team leading 11 touchdowns! At this point Andrews is 30 years old and it’s difficult to know when Likely will start cutting into his workload. We won’t have to worry about that for week 1, as Likely was ruled out already. BUF’s defense was middle of the pack against TE’s last season and they return a solid linebacking core again. I’m expecting a slow start again for Andrews, who only averaged 4.1 targets per game last season and has not performed well vs BUF in the last.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions (-145)

QB Josh Allen

Josh is fresh off an MVP season, he threw for 3,731 yards and 28 passing TDs, as well as 531 yards on the ground and 12 rushing TDs. Allen and the Bills ultimately came up short of the Super Bowl last season losing to the Chiefs 32-29 in an AFC Championship thriller. He’ll look to finally break through in 2025 with the same coaching staff and a similar supporting cast. Josh averaged 219.5 passing yards per game (19^th most), 7.72 yards per attempt (9^th most), 0.72 fantasy points per drop back (3^rd most), and a 101.4 QB rating (8^th highest). He’ll face a Ravens defense that struggled early last season under new DC Zach Orr but were as good as anybody down the stretch. Baltimore added veterans Jaire Alexander and Chidobe Awuzie to a secondary that already includes Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins. On paper, their talent is as good as anybody. This will be a chess match against arguably the most talented QB in the league against a defense that has the talent to be top 5 this season.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime TD (-105)

 

RB James Cook

Cook tied Derrick Henry for the most rushing TDs last season with 16, but he’s a candidate for regression in 2025. He scored 7 more touchdowns than expected based on opportunity share; carries inside the 5-yard line and end zone targets.  Outside of TDs, Cook averaged 63.1 rushing yards per game (18^th most) on 4.87 YPC (7^th highest). He had a pedestrian 4.8% explosive run rate, which ranked 20^th amongst qualifying RBs. From weeks 1 to 10, Cook averaged a 54.8% snap share. That dropped to a 42.5% share from week 11 to 17 as Ty Johnson and Ray Davis became more involved. From a receiving perspective, Cook has been inconsistent, which is a bit disappointing as expectations were that he’d be a huge factor in the passing game coming out of college. He averaged 16.1 receiving yards per game last season running a route on 35.2% of drop backs in which he was on the field. He was less efficient than both Ty Johnson and Ray Davis, averaging 1.34 YPRR, compared to 1.58 and 1.99 YPRR respectively.

Suggested Pick:

Under 0.5 TD (-125)

 

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir stepped into the role as Allen’s number 1 target following the departure of Stefon Diggs. He averaged 54.7 receiving yards per game, 27% targets per route run, 2.27 yards per route run and led the team with a 24.9% 1^st-read rate. Shakir is primarily a slot receiver, lining up from this formation on 73.1% of his routes. He was an extremely dependable weapon for Allen, dropping just 1 pass over the entire season. The Ravens matchup looks to be on the tougher side. They allowed the most receiving yards per game in the first 9 weeks last season (302 YPG), but the 7^th least in the final 9 weeks (218.8) as well as the 2^nd fewest YPRR (1.27). It took this group some to figure it out with new DC Zach Orr. With more continuity going into 2025, along with the immense talent this squad has, I expect this to be a tough matchup for passing offenses all season long.  Shakir found success in 2 matchups vs the Ravens last season, going for 62 yards on 4 receptions early in the season, followed by 67 yards on 6 receptions in the divisional round. The only concern I have for week 1 Shakir is that he’s coming off a high ankle sprain. He returned to practice 8/29, but it may be worth monitoring practice reports leading up to Sunday night’s game.

Suggested Pick:

Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

60+ Receiving Yards (+165)

70+ Receiving Yards (+255)

 

WR Keon Coleman

Keon Coleman was selected with the 33^rd pick by the Bills in the 2024 draft. He averaged 42.8 receiving yards per game, was targeted on 19% of his routes, and averaged 1.87 yards per route run. His 19.7% 1^st-read rate ranked 3^rd amongst Bills receivers, behind Shakir and Kincaid. He was used as a deep threat in year one, with the highest average depth of target on the team (15.3 yards) and the most receiving yards on targets 20+ yards down field (152 yards). He almost exclusively ran his routes from the outside, at an 88.6% rate. It’ll be interesting to see if the coaching staff moves Keon around more and gives him a more diverse route tree in year 2. The Ravens matchup looks to be on the tougher side. They allowed the most receiving yards per game in the first 9 weeks last season (302 YPG), but the 7^th least in the final 9 weeks (218.8) as well as the 2^nd fewest YPRR (1.27). It took this group some to figure it out with new DC Zach Orr. With more continuity going into 2025, along with the immense talent this squad has, I expect this to be a tough matchup for passing offenses all season long.

Suggested Pick:

Under 37.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

 

WR Josh Palmer

Palmer looks to start the season as the WR3 for Josh Allen, the one major change from a skill-player perspective on this offense. The Bills acquired Amari Cooper during the season last year to provide Josh with another weapon, but he ended up being a disappointment. The Bills signed Josh Palmer, who has had a respectable career with the Chargers, to a three-year deal during the offseason. He averaged 38.9 receiving yards per game, 1.58 YPRR and was targeted on 17% of his routes in 2024. He averaged 58.1 receiving yards per game, 1.89 YPRR and a 19% TPRR in 2023. Palmer is known as a field stretcher who can beat man coverage. In my opinion, this is an underrated signing and wouldn’t be surprised if he built a meaningful connection with Josh. The Ravens matchup looks to be on the tougher side. They allowed the most receiving yards per game in the first 9 weeks last season (302 YPG), but the 7^th least in the final 9 weeks (218.8) as well as the 2^nd fewest YPRR (1.27). It took this group some to figure it out with new DC Zach Orr. With more continuity going into 2025, along with the immense talent this squad has, I expect this to be a tough matchup for passing offenses all season long.

Suggested Pick:

Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

40+ Receiving Yards (+167)

50+ Receiving Yards (+275)

 

TE Dalton Kincaid

The headlines for Kincaid will showcase a guy that fell off after a solid rookie season. However, a lot of the dip in production and snap share was due to his PCL sprain he suffered in week 10. From weeks 1-9 last season, Kincaid had a 67.2% snap share, compared to a 41.5% snap share in his 3 regular season games after returning. He averaged a 64.9% route share, 36.9 receiving yards per game, a 26% TPRR, 1.71 YPRR and a 21.3% 1^st-read rate. That compares to a 48.5% route share, 26.7 receiving yards per game, a 26% TPRR, 1.65 YPRR and a 14.6% 1^st-read rate post return (including playoffs). There have been off season reports that Kincaid has dealt with soreness in the same knee, so this will be something to monitor early in the season. He may offer some value if he can get back to his pre-injury usage and production. The Ravens matchup looks to be on the tougher side. They allowed the most receiving yards per game in the first 9 weeks last season (302 YPG), but the 7^th least in the final 9 weeks (218.8) as well as the 2^nd fewest YPRR (1.27). It took this group some to figure it out with new DC Zach Orr. With more continuity going into 2025, along with the immense talent this squad has, I expect this to be a tough matchup for passing offenses all season long.

Suggested Pick

Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Ravens go on the road and startt the season 1-0 on a game winning field goal

Best Bet: (Ravens -1.5 -120)
Lean: (Over 50.5)
Ravens 27 Bills 24

 

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Josh Allen (Bills) +100

Allen rushed for 15 TDs during his MVP season last year. He’ll play in primetime against the Ravens in week 1. He scored 2 TDs vs the Ravens in the playoffs last year. With James Cook vastly outperforming his expected TD total last season, expecting regression for him and I like Allen to pick up some of the scoring himself.

Derrick Henry (Ravens) -155

I don't think I have to do much explaining here. Henry had 16 touchdowns in 17 games last season and has scored a total of 3 touchdowns in his last two matchups against the Bills. Since becoming a full time starter, Henry has never finished a season with less than 10 touchdowns. That includes him only playing 8 games in 2021!

 

First Touchdown Picks

Josh Allen (Bills) +700

Same analysis as above, Josh had 5 rushing TDs in the first quarter last year. Allen’s number 1 option at WR is Shakir, who does not profile as a TD guy. The jump ball guy for the Bills is Keon Coleman, but I am not a big believer in him. If the Bills get to the 1, wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills go QB sneak to get into the endzone.

 

Lamar Jackson (Ravens) +1400

I like this price! Lamar has scored with his legs once in the last two matchups against BUF and it was the first touchdown of the game. Lamar is the type of player that likes to take matters into his own hands and this BAL team will look to start hot against a good Bills offense. They have a chip on their shoulder after BUF knocked them out of the playoffs last year.

Parlay #1 (+196)
Lamar Jackson 40+ Rushing Yards
BAL ML
Zay Flowers 3+ Receptions

 

Parlay #2 (+264)
Derrick Henry TD
Lamar Jackson 200+ Passing Yards
Lamar Jackson under 0.5 Interceptions

Parlay #3 (+704)
Josh Allen Anytime TD

Khalil Shakir 60+ Receiving Yards

Keon Coleman Under 36.5 Receiving Yards