QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen is averaging 245.6 passing yards per game, 8.38 YPA and has a 69.6% completion rate. He’s thrown 18 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. Josh is averaging 6.5 rush attempts for 35.1 rushing yards per game and has 10 total TDs on the ground. He’ll face a Texans defense that ranks number 1 in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 3^rd fewest passing yards per game (171). The Texans play the 5^th highest frequency of zone coverage (77.8%). Against zone, Allen averages 8.62 YPA, has a 72.3% completion rate and has an average depth of target of 7.7 yards. That compares to 7.73 YPA, a 63.3% completion rate and a 9.7-yard average depth of target against man. Matthew Stafford is the only QB to throw for over 225 yards against the Texans this season. 6 of 10 were held under 200. From a running matchup, the Texans rank 18^th in rushing yards allowed to QB. The Bills are 6-point favorites, and the O/U is just 43.5, not expecting a huge game for Allen’s standards.

Suggested Pick:

Under 19.5 Completions (-112)

RB James Cook

James Cook averages 96.8 rushing yards per game on 5.32 YPC. He’s rushed for 7 touchdowns. He’ll face a Houston defense that ranks 10^th in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 3^rd fewest rushing yards per game. Houston allows the 2^nd fewest YPC (3.41) and the 5^th lowest success rate (43.2%) against zone concept runs. They allow the 3^rd fewest YPC (3.6) and the 4^th lowest success rate (42.6%) against man/gap concept. Cook has a 50-50 split between zone and man/gap concept but has been more efficient in zone. He’s averaging 5.75 YPC and a 62.9% success rate, compared to 4.89 YPC and a 52.2% success rate in man/gap. Cook has been more involved in the passing game as of late. He caught 5 of 5 targets for 24 yards two weeks ago and caught 3 of 3 targets for 66 yards last week. Houston is allowing the 12^th fewest receiving yards and 12^th fewest receptions to opposing RBs. The Bills are 6-point favorites, and this game has just a 43.5 O/U, likely another primetime defensive matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-117)

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir had an extremely quiet Sunday last week, catching 1 of 3 targets for -3 yards. On the season, he’s averaging 45.4 receiving yards per game, 1.81 YPRR and he’s been targeted on 24% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.1%. He’ll face a Houston defense that ranks number 1 in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 3^rd fewest receiving yards per game. Shakir has lined up out of the slot on 72.1% of his routes. The Texans are relatively weaker against the slot, allowing the 10^th most YPRR (1.84) and the 8^th highest target share (33.3%). The Texans starting safety, Jalen Pitre, has missed the previous 2 weeks and has been ruled out again for Thursday. The Texans are allowing the 3^rd most YPRR (2.51) and the 5^th most receiving yards per game (101.5) to the slot in the 2 games without him. The Texans play zone coverage at a top 5 rate (77.8%). Shakir averages 2.06 YPRR and has been targeted on 26% of his routes against zone. Shakir also just announced the birth of his first child, narrative play!

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (-117)

6+ Receptions (+170)

WR Josh Palmer

Keon Coleman was a healthy scratch last week, and that will be the case again this Thursday. Palmer was 2^nd amongst WRs in route rate behind Shakir last week. Kincaid also remains out, so Palmer likely comes into this game as the number 2 option. He’s averaging 35.9 receiving yards per game, 2.13 YPRR and he’s been targeted on 21% of his routes. He’ll face a Houston defense that ranks number 1 in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 3^rd fewest receiving yards per game. They are particularly tough against wide aligned receivers with their star CB Derek Stingley. They are allowing the 2^nd fewest YPRR (1.53) and the fewest receiving yards per game (75.2) to wide alignment. Palmer has lined up out wide on 77.1% of his routes on the season and on 86.7% last week with Keon Coleman inactive. The Texans play zone coverage at a top 5 rate (77.8%). Palmer averages 1.96 YPRR against zone, compared to 2.77 YPRR against man. I’m fading Palmer in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Under 2.5 Receptions (-130)

TE Dawson Knox

Kincaid has been ruled out, so Knox will get the start. In the 2 games that Kincaid has not played this season, Knox has a 73.5% and 71.9% route participation rate. Despite that, he has not had much success, catching 1 of 2 targets for 19 yards and a touchdown in week 6 and catching 1 of 3 targets for 23 yards last week without him. He’s touchdown or bust. He’ll face a Houston defense that ranks number 1 in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 3^rd fewest receiving yards per game. To tight ends, they have allowed the 6^th fewest receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. The Texans play zone coverage at a top 5 rate (77.8%). Knox is averaging 1.59 YPRR and 13% TPRR against zone coverage, compared to 0.16 YPRR and 12% TPRR against man.

Suggested Pick

Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

QB Davis Mills

Davis Mills will continue to start for the Texans as C.J. Stroud remains sidelined with concussion symptoms. Last week, Mills completed 26 of 41 passes for 274 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, adding 14 rushing yards on two carries, but was sacked four times. Through three starts, he has 726 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, with 6.05 yards per attempt. This matchup against the Buffalo Bills is much tougher than his previous two. Buffalo boasts the fifth-lowest completion rate allowed (61.8%), the fewest passing yards per game (185.9), and the 12th-lowest yards per attempt (6.83). Mills has struggled against two-high coverages, ranking 29th in passing grade, and the Bills run two-high at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. Furthermore, Mills' passing grade dramatically drops under pressure, and the Bills' defense generates pressure at the sixth-highest rate. The lines have adjusted for the tougher matchup and I’m not running to take the unders here. However, with a 4.2% turnover-worthy throw rate and a pass-heavy game script likely, this is a great spot for Mills to throw an interception.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (-115)

RB Woody Marks

Woody Marks is in a great spot for a potential breakout game against the Buffalo Bills' struggling run defense. Last week, Marks handled a season-high 83% of the backfield touches, playing 66% of snaps, with 18 carries for 44 yards and one catch for seven yards. For the season, he has 99 carries for 348 yards (3.5 yards per carry) and two rushing touchdowns, along with 16 receptions for 190 yards and two receiving touchdowns. The Bills were crushued by another backfield last week, allowing 202 yards and three touchdowns on 33 touches to Tampa Bay's running backs. Buffalo now allows the second-highest yards per carry to running backs (5.4) and a league-high 14 rushing touchdowns to the position. They also surrender a league-high 3.95 yards after contact per rush to running backs. Additionally, running backs account for 23.2% of receptions against the Bills, the sixth-highest share in the league, which bodes well for Marks' explosiveness in the passing game. I just wish he was used more in it. While Houston's overall rushing success rate is low (35.5%), Marks has handled all three backfield touches inside the five-yard line over the past two games. This presents a prime opportunity for Marks, provided the Texans commit to the run. Unders are not the way to go with Marks and given how explosive he can be in the passing game, I’ll take his rushing plus receiving prop.

Suggested Pick

‘O’ 76.5 Rushing + Receiving (-115)

RB Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb's role in the Texans' offense has significantly diminished, making him a difficult player to consider this week. Last week, he had only three touches (three carries for 17 yards, no catches), following just six touches in Week 10. For the season, Chubb has 99 carries for 419 yards (4.2 yards per carry) and two rushing touchdowns, along with 11 receptions for 59 yards. His advanced metrics show him as an unexplosive runner with a 3.0% explosive run rate (31st). With Woody Marks firmly entrenched as the primary back and the Texans likely to be trailing in this game, Chubb's opportunities could be even more limited. With it being a good rushing matchup, I don’t want to fade the yardage so I’ll look to fade the attempts here.

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 5.5 Rushing Attempts (+106)

WR Nico Collins

After a slow start Collins is re-establishing himself as an elite wide receiver once again, seeing double-digit targets in his last four games, including nine catches on 10 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown last week. For the season, Collins has 49 receptions for 642 yards and four touchdowns on 82 targets. He maintains a high target share (25.1%) and air yardage share (38.0%). This matchup against the Bills is favorable for Collins. Buffalo has allowed the third-highest receptions (6.0) and a league-high 86.9 yards per game to WR1 targets. They have also allowed several big games to top receivers despite their overall strong pass defense: Jaylen Waddle (5 catches for 84 yards and a TD), Rashee Rice (4 for 80), Tet McMillan (7 for 99), Drake London (10 for 158, TD), Stefon Diggs (10 for 146). Davis Mills has consistently targeted Collins, with a 28.2% target share over his three starts. Given the likelihood of a throwing-heavy game script if the Texans fall behind, Collins is in an excellent spot to continue to be productive. Despite the tougher matchup for Mills as a thrower, he should continue to pepper Collins in a game where they’ll need points to keep pace.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

‘O’ 5.5 Receptions (-125)

WR Jayden Higgins

Jayden Higgins appears to be emerging as the Texans' WR2, showing growth and more involvement the past few weeks. Last week, he had four catches for 55 yards on seven targets, narrowly missing a touchdown - pushed out at the one-yard line. He has received at least seven targets in each of the past two games and his route rate (57.4%) was his highest without an injury this season. For the season, Higgins has 23 receptions for 256 yards and three touchdowns on 36 targets (63.9% catch rate). He primarily plays out wide (81.4%). The Bills' defense allows the 11th highest yards per target to outside wide receivers (8.84), which aligns with where Higgins' plays. With Christian Kirk less involved, Higgins' role as the secondary outside receiver is becoming more defined (although they do play different roles). Given his increasing involvement and the favorable matchup against outside corners, Higgins is someone I’d back given the low lines.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Dalton Schultz

Dalton Schultz is expected to play after battling a shoulder injury that has hampered him for a couple of weeks. He's coming off a solid performance with six catches for 51 yards on nine targets, and has consistently seen at least 20% of the team's targets in three of the past three weeks and five of his past seven games. For the season, Schultz has 51 receptions for 489 yards and one touchdown on 68 targets (75.0% catch rate), and has cleared 50 receiving yards in five of his past six games. However, this matchup against the Buffalo Bills is extremely challenging for Schultz. The Bills' defense is elite against tight ends, allowing the fewest targets per game (3.80), fewest receptions (2.50), and fewest yards (27.0) to the position. They also allow a league-low 2.5 catches per game to tight ends and a very low 2.6% touchdown rate (3rd). While Schultz has been a reliable option, this is the ideal spot to fade him given the matchup.

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

This Texans defense is UNREAL as they rank #4 vs the QB position and over the last 2 years when Josh Allen faces a top 10 team in QB ranking they held a 10-3 record scoring 27.2 points per game and out of the 10 wins they won by an average margin of 16.0 points. The Texans offense is exactly the type of team this Bills defense needs to play to build some momentum. Give me the Bills in a dominant victory

Best Bet Bills -5.5 -125
Lean Bills TT 'O' 22.5 Pts -160
Score Prediction Texans 13 Bills 27

Anytime TD Scorer

Khalil Shakir (Bills) +300

Shakir has 4 touchdowns in 10 games but hasn’t found the endzone in 3 weeks. I think he’s due after his worst performance of the season last week. He’ll face a Texans defense that is elite, but they funnel targets to the slot, especially since their safety Jalen Pitre has been out the past 2 weeks. Shakir just welcomed his first child, narrative play!

Best Bet (Texans): Woody Marks +135

Marks has clearly taken over the lead role over the past two weeks and what better time than against this porous Bills defensive line. We just saw this Bills team allow three touchdowns allowed to Bucs running backs last week. We’ve also seen how explosive Marks can be in the passing game out of the backfield. Marks has handled all three backfield touches inside the five-yard line over the past two games and the Bills rank 31st in EPA as a run defensive unit. This BUF defense has allowed a rushing touchdown in 8 straight games! This looks like a great spot for Marks at a nice plus money price.

First TD Scorer

Khalil Shakir (Bills) +1400

Same analysis as anytime touchdown, love this narrative play after becoming a dad this past week. Tough overall matchup against the Texans, but they have been worse against the slot, I think Allen finds his top target.

Longshot: (Texans): Jayden Higgins +2800

Higgins was inches away from scoring a touchdown last week, which would have given him touchdowns in 3 of the last 4 games. He continues to get more routes each week, despite this WR group getting healthier and he profiles as a good touchdown target. He primarily plays out wide (81.4%) and the Bills' defense allows the 11th highest yards per target to outside wide receivers (8.84). Nico is the obvious choice through the air, but I think we are getting some nice value here on Higgins.

Parlay #1 (Bills) +875

Khalil Shakir 6+ Receptions
Josh Allen Under 19.5 Completions

Parlay #2 (Texans) +475

Woody Marks TD

Nico Collins 60+ Receiving Yards

Dalton Schultz under 39.5 Receiving Yards

QB Daniel Jones
Jones appears on the injury report with a calf issue but practiced in a limited fashion, so he is expected to play in what sets up as an interesting schematic matchup. Jones is quietly having a highly productive season, leading the league with 265.9 passing yards per game while completing 69.9% of his passes (3rd among qualifiers) with a 101.6 passer rating. The key to this game lies in play-action. Jones ranks second in the NFL in play-action usage (33.2% of dropbacks) and second in yardage derived from it (976), averaging a stellar 9.2 yards per attempt on such throws. Conversely, the Chiefs' defense collapses against play-action, allowing a league-high 81.9% completion rate and 10.8 yards per attempt (2nd highest), compared to just 5.9 yards per attempt on standard dropbacks. Additionally, Jones offers a high floor with his legs; he has 5 rushing touchdowns this season, and Kansas City allows the most rushing attempts per game (5.90) and the most rushing touchdowns (0.5 per game) to opposing quarterbacks. He’s probably in for a more pass-heavy game script, but with solid coverage by KC I think backing his legs is the way to go.

 Suggested Picks
‘O’ 15.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Jonathan Taylor
Taylor is in the midst of a dominant campaign, leading the league in rushing yards (1,139), rushing touchdowns (15), and yards per carry (6.0). He is coming off a monster 244-yard, 3-touchdown performance before the bye. His advanced metrics are elite, ranking 3rd in explosive run rate (7.9%) and 2nd in yards after contact per attempt (2.85). However, there is a distinct game-script risk here. Taylor has been a second-half juggernaut, accumulating a league-high 712 rushing yards in the second half of games, compared to ranking just RB6 in first-half production. If Kansas City takes an early lead, Taylor may not get the requisite closing volume to hit his ceiling. The Chiefs are a stout run defense, having allowed only one 100-yard rusher all season (James Cook) and ranking 7th in yards allowed before contact. While Taylor leads the league in 20+ yard runs, this matchup suggests a lean toward the under if you are daring enough to take it.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 19.5 Carries (-105)

WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman enters this game averaging 58.0 yards per game (28th best among WR’s) and is coming off a quiet 2-catch, 19-yard outing before the bye. Despite seeing 22.3% of the team targets, his production has been modest with a 10.74 yards per reception average. However, the matchup favors a bounce-back performance. Kansas City utilizes two-high coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league (56.1%). This is the specific coverage look where Pittman excels; he commands a team-high 22.4% target share and a 27.4% first-read target share against two-high looks. While Alec Pierce operates downfield, Pittman serves as the primary release valve against deep safety shells. Expect Jones to look Pittman's way frequently to move the chains. If you are backing him look towards receptions, but with the emergence of Pierce as the new WR1, I’ll fade his yardage.

Suggested Picks
‘U' 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Alec Pierce
The betting markets have adjusted aggressively to Pierce's breakout season, positioning his yardage line higher than Pittman's this week. Pierce is enjoying a career year, leading the NFL with 20.9 yards per catch and seeing a career-high 20.1% target rate per route. However, this price adjustment feels like a trap given the matchup. While Pierce excels deep, he struggles mightily against the two-high coverages that Kansas City runs frequently; his target rate drops to just 13% against those looks, and his yards per route run plummets to 1.38. Furthermore, while the Chiefs rank ninth in completions allowed on throws of 20+ yards, they have not allowed a single touchdown on those deep passes this season. Pierce is efficient with his targets (84.4 passer rating when targeted), but the schematic fit suggests reduced deep volume. In the wake of him still getting good volume in a more pass-heavy attack, I think grabbing his receptions is the move at a good plus money price.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (+135)

TE Tyler Warren
Warren has emerged as a legitimate weapon, boasting a 73.6% catch rate and 617 receiving yards this season. Before the bye, he shredded the defense for 99 yards on 8 catches. He is used all over the formation—40.5% inline, 43.1% slot, and 12.5% wide—making him a difficult cover. His advanced stats are impressive, featuring 7.6 yards after the catch per reception and a 122.5 passer rating when targeted. On paper, the matchup looks difficult, as Kansas City allows the third-fewest targets and 12th-fewest yards to tight ends. However, context matters - the Chiefs have faced a weak schedule of tight ends, inflating their defensive metrics. In a game where Indianapolis will likely be trailing and needing to throw, Warren’s 21.3% target share (TE2 overall) should translate to volume. Ignore the "tough matchup" narrative and back the over on receptions or yards as a volume-based play.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-125)

QB Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes enters this matchup looking to steady the offense after two straight games under 15 points and just one total touchdown in that span. Against Denver, he completed 29 of 45 passes for 276 yards (6.1 YPA) with 1 TD and 1 INT, but what stood out was the disappearance of his rushing production — a combined 2/8 rushing over his last two contests after opening the year with 46/280. Indianapolis offers a drastically different coverage profile than Denver and Buffalo. In Sauce Gardner’s first game, the Colts ran man coverage at a massive 41.9% rate, and Mahomes has historically struggled more against man in 2024: just 5.24 YPA, a -8.9% completion percentage over expected, and 9/87/2 rushing on 134 dropbacks. This is a pressure-tilted matchup, as Indy ranks near the middle in pure pass defense metrics but allows the seventh-most passing yards per game (255.3) and 1.6 passing touchdowns per contest. The Colts have held three straight quarterbacks — Penix, Rodgers, and Ward — under 14 fantasy points and to just one passing touchdown each, but all three lack Mahomes’ improvisational ceiling and ability to manipulate man coverage via extended plays. Given that the Chiefs still operate one of the league’s highest early-down pass rates, and with Kansas City’s season essentially hinging on this AFC showdown, Mahomes projects for significantly higher usage than his recent output.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+190)

RB Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco has a chance to return this week, and if active, he steps into one of the most ambiguous but important backfield spots in Week 12. His season has been capped by inefficiency, with zero performances above 12.8 points and six games below 8.6. What Pacheco has supplied is speed through second-level access — though Kansas City’s offensive line has generated inconsistent run lanes. In his absence, Kareem Hunt logged 82% of the snaps and produced 13/59/1 on the ground while catching one pass. Hunt has hit 12.5+ in three straight games and recorded at least 12 touches in the two games Pacheco has missed. The matchup is intriguing: the Colts allow the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (77.9) but also the 13th-most adjusted yards before contact (2.15), meaning their defensive line gives ground but the linebackers clean it up. They surrender just 27.7 receiving yards per game to running backs, one of the strongest marks in the league. If Pacheco is active, he likely operates in a split with Hunt but takes early-down preference against a defense that allowed the Falcons’ Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to combine for 141 rushing yards and two scores just two weeks ago.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ Rushing Yards 

WR Rashee Rice

Rashee Rice enters this matchup after his quietest game of the season — 6/38 on 9 targets (20%) — despite opening the year with three straight 18.6+ point performances after returning from injury. The efficiency dip is noteworthy: against Denver’s heavy two-high shells, Rice posted just 0.76 YPRR. Indianapolis’ coverage structure is different — Gardner’s debut pushed the Colts into man coverage at 41.9%, a look Rice has struggled against in limited samples, recording only 0.87 yards per route run and a .23 target per route run on 31 man-coverage routes. But the slot matchup is dramatically in his favor. Indy allows the third-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers (94.5) and the sixth-highest yards per route run (1.91). Drake London shredded this Colts secondary in Week 10 for 6/104/1, and Rice aligns in the slot on 47–55% of his snaps depending on game script. He also leads Kansas City in red-zone targets and first-read share. With Gardner likely to spend his shadow-type usage on Worthy outside, Rice has by far the most positive matchup on the field.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 74.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Xavier Worthy

Xavier Worthy continues to play a full-time role, but his usage and production have evaporated. He finished with just 3/25 on 5 targets (11%) last week and has not surpassed 53 scrimmage yards or 11.1 points in six straight games. The Colts ran man coverage on 41.9% of snaps in Gardner’s debut — a major problem for Worthy, who sits at 1.58 YPRR and just a 25% TPRR against man. His metrics against two-high structures are even lower (0.64 YPRR). The Colts allow only 98.8 receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers and the fifth-fewest yards per route run (1.67), one of the strongest outside-corner profiles in the league. Gardner shadowed Drake London on 72.4% of his routes last game, and if he resumes that usage, he likely checks Worthy on the boundary given Rice’s slot alignment. Worthy has just one red-zone target in his last four games and only five deep targets over the entire six-game drought — a clear signal that defenses have eliminated his vertical usage, and Mahomes has leaned elsewhere on money downs. This is a fade matchup based on usage and coverage structure.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 40.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce is coming off one of his most efficient games of the season — 9/91/1 on 13 targets (29%) — and the tape confirmed a renewed emphasis on isolating him in spacing concepts. Kelce has at least 47 receiving yards in nine of ten games and 4+ receptions in eight of ten. Against man coverage (which the Colts ran at 41.9% last week), Kelce has historically posted strong efficiency, and this year he remains productive at 1.18 YPRR and .17 TPRR across 105 man-coverage routes. The matchup is ideal: Indianapolis ranks second-worst in tight end receiving yards allowed per game (72.6), sixth-most receptions per game (6.3), and is routinely exploited on middle-of-field crossers and option routes. They allowed 55 yards to Trey McBride last game and gave up 8/95 to George Kittle earlier this year. Kansas City will likely scheme Kelce heavily on early downs to counter Indianapolis’ man coverage and reduce obvious passing downs where Gardner and pass rush packages become more dangerous.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 68.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

This is a MUST win game for the Chiefs and it's just hard to fade these guys at Arrow Head let alone coming off a loss. The Colts are a damn good football team and they deserve all the respect but Mahomes is Mahomes and they will find a way to win this game. Butker last second FG.

Best Bet: Chiefs -2.5 -115
Lean: Over 49.5 -110
Score Prediction Colts 24 Chiefs 27

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Chiefs) Travis Kelce +125

Travis Kelce enters this matchup operating as the unquestioned focal point of Kansas City’s intermediate passing game, and the data strongly supports his touchdown equity increasing against an Indianapolis defense that has struggled all season to contain tight ends. The Colts allow 72.6 receiving YPG to TEs (2nd-most), 6.3 receptions per game to TEs (6th-most), and have given up consistent red-zone success to the position, allowing multiple TE touchdowns in four separate games. They also run man coverage on 41.9% of snaps since Sauce Gardner arrived, a look against which Kelce averages 1.18 YPRR and holds a 17% target-per-route rate — both elevated figures given his massive route participation. The Colts’ coverage philosophy funnels targets away from the perimeter and into the hashmarks, which has resulted in tight ends accounting for 27% of all red-zone targets against them. Kelce owns a 29% team target share last week, has seen 3+ red-zone targets in four of his last six, and remains Mahomes’ primary option in scoring territory. With Kansas City projected to lean heavily on interior passing concepts to avoid Gardner on the perimeter, Kelce’s touchdown probability rises meaningfully in this matchup.

Longshot: (Colts) Michael Pittman +270
I know, I just gave y'all an under on Pittman in the game guide, but one thing he's good at is scoring TD's. There is no doubt that KC will be focused on Taylor in this matchup. Meanwhile Pittman has 6 TD's on the season and 8 redzone targets on the season. Despite thinking that Pierce may be the new #1 in town, the touchdown equity is still there for Pittman as a reliable redzone target.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Chiefs) Rashee Rice +740

Rashee Rice profiles as the most explosive early-script touchdown candidate for Kansas City, with both usage trends and matchup data pointing toward a strong first-drive scoring opportunity. The Colts play man coverage at a 41.9% rate, and Rice has been heavily utilized as the Chiefs’ primary man-beater out of the slot, where he averages .87 YPRR and a .23 TPRR against man — and more importantly, commands early-script looks: 31% first-read share on opening drives, the highest on the team. Indianapolis has also been one of the NFL’s worst defenses against slot receivers, allowing 94.5 receiving YPG (3rd-most) and a bottom-10 success rate defending short/intermediate in-breaking routes — Rice’s bread and butter. The Colts’ defensive structure forces the quarterback away from the boundary, and Mahomes has responded by targeting Rice on 28% of first-quarter pass attempts since his return to the lineup. With defenses bracketing Kelce in early red-zone snaps and Indianapolis ranking 31st in defensive TD rate allowed on opening possessions, Rice has the clearest path to the game’s first touchdown.

Longshot: (Colts) Daniel Jones +2000
I think Jones will start to use his legs more in tougher matchups and he gets the best QB rushing TD matchup in the league. This season, KC has allowed 5 rushing QB touchdowns this season. Jones has 5 of his own this season so don't be surprised to see him on the move in this one.

 Parlay #1 (Chiefs) +385

Travis Kelce ATD

Xavier Worthy 'U' 40.5 Receiving Yards

Patrick Mahomes 'O' 1.5 TD Passes

Parlay #2 (Colts) +276
Daniel Jones 15+ Rushing Yards
Michael Pittman under 49.5 Receiving Yards
Tyler Warren 4+ Receptions

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers left last week with a fracture in his left wrist. He is pushing to play this weekend. If he can’t go, Mason Rudolph will start. Rodgers is averaging 196.9 passing yards per game, 6.81 YPA and has completed 66.4% of his passes. He’s thrown 19 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. He’ll face a Chicago defense that has allowed the 10^th most passing yards per game (242.3) and the 4^th most YPA (7.84). The Bears have the 4^th lowest pressure rate (33.6%). When Rodgers is not pressured, he averages 7.00 YPA and a 73.1% completion rate. Amongst QBs with 100+ drop backs, Rodgers has the 2^nd lowest average depth of target (6.2 yards). He has just a 9.3% deep throw rate (11^th lowest). On throws 10+ yards down field, the Bears allow the most YPA (13.10) and the 3^rd highest completion rate (59.1%). On throws less than 10 yards, the Bears allow the 3^rd fewest YPA (5.37). This is not a great matchup for Rodgers’ dink and dunk approach.

Suggested Pick:

Under 220.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Jaylen Warren

Warren averages 59.6 rushing yards per game on 4.36 YPC. Warren left in the 3^rd quarter last game due to an ankle injury, but all signs point to him playing this week. Warren may see a reduced workload as he works through this injury. He’ll face a Bears defense that has allowed the 8^th most rushing yards per game (133.3) and the 4^th most YPC (5.19). They have allowed the 5^th highest explosive run rate (6.6%). Warren ranks towards the bottom of the league in this regard with a 3.3% explosive run rate, 8^th lowest amongst RBs with 100+ attempts (out of 31). Warren primarily runs out of a zone concept, accounting for 71.5% of his attempts. He’s averaging 4.44 YPC and a 54.5% success rate. The Bears allow the 4^th most YPC (4.74) but the 14^th lowest success rate (46.7%) against zone concept. In the receiving game, Warren averages 24.3 receiving yards per game on 2.8 receptions. Gainwell has been the primary pass catcher despite Warren being more efficient in that department. Gainwell has ran more routes than Warren in 7 of the 9 games both played in. The Bears are middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed to RB. The running matchup is bullish but I’m hesitant because I wouldn’t be surprised to see Warren have a reduced snap count, I’m passing.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

WR DK Metcalf

DK is averaging 55.1 receiving yards per game, 1.91 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 26.3%. He’s caught a team-high 5 touchdowns on the season. He has primarily lined up out wide, at a 79.2% rate. He’ll face a Chicago defense that has allowed the 10^th most receiving yards per game (242.3). To wide alignment in particular, the Bears allow the 9^th most YPRR (2.09). The Bears have the 4^th lowest pressure rate (33.6%). When Rodgers is not pressured, Metcalf averages 2.73 YPRR and has been targeted on 29% of his routes. On throws 10+ yards down field, the Bears allow the most YPA (13.10) and the 3^rd highest completion rate (59.1%). On throws less than 10 yards, the Bears allow the 3^rd fewest YPA (5.37). DK has 29 receptions for 323 yards on targets less than 10 yards down field. He has 8 receptions for 228 yards on targets 10+ yards down field. DK has the highest average depth of target amongst Steeler’s starters at 11 yards.

Suggested Pick:

Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

TE Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth has a 47.7% route participation rate, averages 27.9 receiving yards per game, 1.79 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. He’ll face a Chicago defense that has allowed the 10^th most receiving yards per game (242.3). To tight ends in particular, the Bears allow the 6^th most receptions and 12^th most receiving yards. The Bears have the 4^th lowest pressure rate (33.6%). When Rodgers is not pressured, Freiermuth averages 1.76 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. On throws 10+ yards down field, the Bears allow the most YPA (13.10) and the 3^rd highest completion rate (59.1%). On throws less than 10 yards, the Bears allow the 3^rd fewest YPA (5.37). Freiermuth has 19 receptions for 160 yards on targets less than 10 yards down field. He’s caught 4 receptions for 119 yards on targets more than 10 yards downfield. Freiermuth’s average depth of target is just 6.1 yards.

Suggested Pick:

Over 1.5 Receptions (-125)

QB Caleb Williams

Don't look now, but Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears have won seven of the last eight games and are first in the NFC North...as we all expected. This week, he gets a favourable matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have been shredded all season, allowing the most completions (25.9), pass attempts (39.7) and passing yards (281.5), per game to opposing QBs. A strength of this Steelers defence is that they allow the 6th fewest rushing yards to the position per game. However, that might just be because they're so easily beat through the air. The Steelers run man coverage at the 5th highest rate (36%) in the league and Cover 1 at the 2nd highest rate (27.8%). Unfortunately, Williams’ production against man isn’t ideal. Against man, he has posted a 54.4% completion rate, but makes up for it with a 7.22 yards per attempt and a solid 102 QBR. Against Cover 1, Williams again lands near the bottom in completion percentage at 55.6%, but carries a stable efficiency with a 7.19 yards-per-attempt mark and a 90.7 QBR. So what these numbers show is that Williams isn't connecting on most of his plays, but when he does, he pops for big plays. Against teams that run man coverage at a top-10 rate this season, Williams has thrown for 220+ passing yards in three of those four games.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams 220+ Passing Yards (-110)

RB D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift has quietly put together four fantastic weeks of his past five games. In those games, he's averaging 89.4 rushing yards – a massive uptick from his 46.8 rushing yard average through his first four games. Can he continue that against the Steelers? Pittsburgh give up the 12th most rush attempts (21.6) per game, averaging 92.9 rushing yards allowed per game. The Steelers run the most zone concept run defence at 55.7%, allowing 3.83 yards per carry against the coverage – 10th lowest rate in the league. Against zone concept, Swift is averaging 4.55 yards per carry. While that is stable, it's far from his best, where he averages 5.11 yards per carry against man/gap. Swift's work through the air has been inconsistent this season, but that shouldn't matter much, as the Steelers allow 4.4 receptions and the 12th fewest receiving yards (28.4) per game to the position (28.4). Call me crazy for fading a guy who's as hot on the ground as he is, but Swift is kind of due for a let down spot. And coming into this week nursing an injury, and against one of the worse pass defence in the league, could result in Swift going under on the ground this week.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift u60.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR DJ Moore

To be quite honest, we're getting to the territory where we're going to start covering Luther Burden over DJ Moore, because I think we're starting to see the pendulum swing in favour of the rookie. However, Moore saw the most snaps of any Bears position player last week, so unfortunately, we owe it to him to cover this matchup for Moore. The Steelers allow the most receptions per game to opposing wide receivers (15.2), along with the most receiving yards (186) per game. Moore’s usage against man coverage this season has been abysmal, catching 5 of his 11 targets for 66 yards across 65 routes, while earning a 15.9% target share. Against Cover 1 specifically, he has recorded 4 receptions on 8 targets for 40 yards on 53 routes, with a 14.5% target share. Moore has played 63% of his snaps out wide this season, but last week saw him play his second-highest slot rate (41.9%) on the season. Against slot receivers, the Steelers are targeted at the 10th-highest rate in the league, yet allow the 7th-lowest catch rate at 67.3% while giving up the 13th-highest yards per reception at 11.53. So, does the matchup lineup nicely for Moore? Sure. But given his poor numbers against man coverage and his usage lately, we still aren't too keen on him this week.

Suggested pick:

Pass

WR Rome Odunze

Was it the greatest game for Rome Odunze last week? No. But this matchup is amazing for the second-year WR. We've already covered how leaky this Steelers defence is to WRs. Against man coverage, Odunze has produced 13 receptions on 27 targets for 170 yards on 70 routes, but more importantly, he owns a 30.4% target share in those situations, the highest on the team. That same 30.4% target share carries over into Cover 1, where he has been significantly more productive, recording 11 receptions on 18 targets for 167 yards on 56 routes. As you can see, most of Odunze's success against man coverage has come against Cover 1. In man coverage, Odunze sees a 4.6% increase in target share, a higher catch rate (68.4%) and yards per route run (2.27) compared to zone coverage. Odunze has lined up out wide on 60.4% of his snaps this season and last week posted his highest outside rate of the year at 72.4%. The Steelers are targeted at the highest rate in the league by outside receivers with 163 total targets. Pittsburgh allows the fifth-highest catch rate (66.9%) but the 9th fewest yards per reception (12.54). But I wouldn't worry too much about that, as it is still a high number. We are really encouraged by what Ben Johnson and this pass offence are going to be able to cook up against this poor Steelers defence, and Odunze will be the centre of attention against the man-heavy team.

Suggested pick:

Rome Odunze 50+ Receiving Yards (-140)

Rome Odunze 70+ Receiving Yards (+170)

Rome Odunze 90+ Receiving Yards (+375)

TE Colston Loveland

Colston Loveland has officially arrived. And now, it's not just because he and a measly 40 receiving yards last week. No, he has now put up 76% of the snaps in a game where Cole Kmet also played and was healthy. The rookie is going to be more of a threat as the season goes along. The Steelers allow the 12th most receptions (5.8) and receiving yards (55.7) to opposing TEs per game. Against man coverage this season, Loveland has 3 receptions on 5 targets for 16 receiving yards on 42 routes. Coincidentally, every one of those receptions and targets has come against Cover 1, which the Packers run at a top-2 rate in the league. However, when you compare his man coverage splits to his zone coverage splits, it isn't as pretty. He sees his target share fall from 19.4% against zone to 7.5% against man, his catch rate dips to 50%, his yards per reception drop to 6.5, and he has a 0.31 yards per route run. But that's his full season split; he's been more involved lately, so be careful when reading fully into that. Loveland lines up inline on 45.4% of his routes. The Steelers are targeted at the ninth-highest rate in the league and allow the highest catch rate (90.9%). While they sit in the middle of the league in yards per reception allowed (9.4) in those situations, the high volume against them has resulted in successful weeks for opposing TEs. With that, and Loveland's increase in volume lately, it should be another big week for the TE.

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland o2.5 Receptions (-145)

The Steelers are a grind it out type of offense and the Bears are really good against short passes. I like this Bears offense in this spot and think they will have success here. Give me the Bears. 

Best Bet Bears ML -148
Lean: Under 46.5 -125
Score Prediction Steelers 17 Bears 27

Anytime TD Scorer

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +180

Best Pick: (Bears): Colston Loveland TD (+300)

We ran with him last week, and it didn't pay off. But we like the matchup for Loveland and his inline alignment to have a lot of receptions in this game, hopefully one finds the end zone. The Steelers are allowing 0.5 receiving TDs per game to opposing TEs.

First TD Scorer

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +1050

Best Pick: (Bears) Kyle Monangai First TD (+1000)

While it's been Swift who has stolen the show on the ground in Chicago, that hasn't kept Kyle Monangai out of the end zone. He has now scored in two straight weeks, and split the inside the five carries with Swift over that time. And if you look at each back's prototype, Monangai represents what a true power goalline back possesses. The Steelers are allowing 0.5 TDs per game to RBs, and, if you like patterns, they have allowed a TD to opposing RBs every second game, and they did not allow one to the Bengals last week.

Parlay #1 (Steelers) +660

Aaron Rodgers Under 220.5 Passing Yards
DK Metcalf Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
Pat Freiermuth Over 1.5 Receptions

Parlay 1: (Bears) +225 odds on bet365

Caleb Williams 200+ Passing Yards

Rome Odunze 50+ Receiving Yards

Colston Loveland 3+ Receptions

QB Drake Maye

Drake Maye is averaging 257.8 passing yards per game, 8.86 YPA and has a 71.9% completion rate. He’s thrown 20 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions. Amongst QBs with at least 8 starts, Maye ranks number 1 in QB rating (113.2). He’ll face a Bengals defense that has allowed the 3^rd most passing yards per game (265.1) and the 3^rd most passing yards per attempt (7.84). The Bengals have the 5^th lowest pressure rate in the league (33.6%). When not pressured, Maye averages 8.93 YPA, a 79.5% completion rate and a 121 QB rating. The Bengals top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (34.4%), Cover 1 (18.9%) and Cover 6 (18.7%). Against these 3 coverages, Maye averages 9.85 YPA, a 71.1% completion rate and a 112.5 QB rating. The Bengals allow the most yards after the catch in the NFL, accounting for 63.9% of total passing yards against. Maye is more of an air yards guy and only 39.7% of his total yards are from after the catch. The Patriots are a touchdown favorite, and this game has the highest O/U on the slate, Maye is setup for an excellent game.

Suggested Pick:

250+ Passing Yards (-120)

275+ Passing Yards (+160)

RB Treveyon Henderson

Treveyon has broken out over the past 3 weeks with Rhamondre Stevenson out with a foot injury. He’s averaging 88 rushing yards per game on 5.62 YPC and 4 rushing TDs. Stevenson is expected to return, it’s hard to predict the backfield split in his return. He’ll face a Bengals defense that allows the most rushing yards per game (160.9) and the 3^rd most YPC (5.22). Treveyon is especially good at running on the outside, averaging 6.02 YPC on the season. That compares to 3.78 YPC on inside runs. The Bengals allowed the 3^rd most YPC on outside runs (5.76) compared to the 9^th most YPC on inside runs (4.98). The Bengals are especially weak against zone concept runs, allowing the most YPC (5.4) and the 3^rd highest success rate (54.4%). Treveyon has been much more efficient in zone concept, averaging 5.67 YPC and a 56.7% success rate. That compares to 4.15 YPC and a 40% success rate in man/gap. In terms of the receiving game, Treveyon is averaging 22 YPG in the past 3 without Rhamondre, running a route on 69.9% of drop backs. The Bengals are allowing the 2^nd most receiving yards and 3^rd most receptions to RB. Extremely bullish matchup for Treveyon, but the biggest question mark will be to what extent does Treveyon keep his role with the return of Rhamondre?

Suggested Pick:

Lines not up (likely passing due to role uncertainty)

WR Stefon Diggs

Diggs is averaging 59.9 receiving yards per game, 2.47 YPC and 27% TPRR. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.6%. Diggs has run 52.4% of his routes out wide and 47.2% from the slot. He’ll face a Bengals defense that allows the 2^nd most YPR overall (1.70). They allow the 2^nd most YPRR (2.31) to the slot and the 18^th most to wide alignment (1.94). The Bengals have the 5^th lowest pressure rate in the league (33.6%). When Maye is not pressured, Diggs averages 3.59 YPRR and has been targeted on 38% of his routes. The Bengals top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (34.4%), Cover 1 (18.9%) and Cover 6 (18.7%). Against these 3 coverages, Diggs averages 2.62 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. The Bengals allow the most yards after the catch in the NFL, accounting for 63.9% of total passing yards against. They force the 2^nd lowest aDOT (7.0). Diggs ranks 2^nd amongst starters in yards after the catch per reception (3.63) and has the 2^nd lowest aDOT (9.1). The Patriots are a touchdown favorite, and this game has the highest O/U on the slate, this offense should feast.

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (-137)

Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

70+ Receiving Yards (+188)

WR Kayshon Boutte

Boutte is set to return after missing the previous 2 weeks with a hamstring injury. He’s averaging 47.9 receiving yards per game, 1.99 YPRR and has been targeted on 14% of his routes. He’s been used as the deep threat, with the highest aDOT amongst the starting skill players at 17.7 yards. He’s ran 87.6% of his routes from wide alignment. He’ll face a Bengals defense that allows the 2^nd most YPRR overall (1.70), but has been better against wide alignment, allowing the 18^th most YPRR there (1.94). The Bengals have the 5^th lowest pressure rate in the league (33.6%). When Maye is not pressured, Boutte averages 2.96 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. The Bengals top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (34.4%), Cover 1 (18.9%) and Cover 6 (18.7%). Against these 3 coverages, Boutte averages 2.16 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. The Bengals allow the most yards after the catch in the NFL, accounting for 63.9% of total passing yards against. They force the 2^nd lowest aDOT (7.0). Boutte averages just 1.13 yards after the catch per reception and his aDOT is the highest amongst starters at 17.7 yards. The Patriots are a touchdown favorite, and this game has the highest O/U on the slate, this offense should feast, but from a schematic perspective, I don’t love it particularly for Boutte.

Suggested Pick:

Under 2.5 Receptions (-130)

TE Hunter Henry

Henry is averaging 38.4 receiving yards per game, 1.46 YPRR, 17% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 17.7%. He mainly splits his time time in the slot (43.4%) and inline (34.1%). The Bengals allow the 2^nd most YPRR to the slot (2.31) and the 5^th most to inline (2.10). The Bengals have the 5^th lowest pressure rate in the league (33.6%). When Maye is not pressured, Henry averages 2.09 YPRR and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. The Bengals top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (34.4%), Cover 1 (18.9%) and Cover 6 (18.7%). Against these 3 coverages, Henry averages 1.58 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. The Bengals allow the most yards after the catch in the NFL, accounting for 63.9% of total passing yards against. They force the 2^nd lowest aDOT (7.0). Henry leads the starters in yards after the catch per reception (5.06) and has the lowest aDOT (8.5). The Patriots are a touchdown favorite, and this game has the highest O/U on the slate, this offense should feast.

Suggested Pick:

Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Over 3.5 Receptions (+110)

50+ Receiving Yards (+150)

5+ Receptions (+240)

Anytime Touchdown (+185)

QB Joe Burrow

Burrow has been taking 1^st team reps in practice this week as it looks likely he returns to play for the first time since his turf toe injury he suffered in week 2. Burrow threw for just 113 yards in his only full start this season against the Browns. Last season, Burrow averaged 289.3 passing yards per game, 7.54 YPA and a 70.6% completion rate. He threw 43 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. He’ll face a Patriots defense that has allowed the 11^th fewest passing yards per game (213.6) and the 5^th fewest YPA (6.35) since week 4, when their star CB Christian Gonzalez returned from injury. In this time, the Patriots’ main 3 coverages in terms of frequency were Cover 3 (27.5%), Cover 1 (25.2%) and Cover 2 (19.9%). Last season, against these 3 coverages, Burrow averaged 7.96 YPA and a 72% completion rate. Burrow will be without Ja’Marr Chase this week as he is suspended for a game due to his spitting incident. We don’t have any data to go off of with Chase off the field with Burrow, but Burrow averaged 6.5 YPA with Higgins off the field last season compared to 8.2 YPA with him on the field. Burrow could also struggle with some rust, especially as it has been a trend that Burrow takes some time to get going, signs of his early season struggles.

Suggested Pick:

No lines available (lean unders)

RB Chase Brown

In the first 6 weeks of the season, Chase Brown averaged 33.7 rushing yards per game on 2.73 YPC. In the past 4, he’s averaging 79.3 rushing yards per game on 6.10 YPC. Samaje Perine is doubtful, so Brown should once again be a bell cow after Perine started cutting into his workload prior to his injury. Brown has accounted for 78.4% of the rush attempts and has ran a route on 82.4% of drop backs with Perine out the past 2 weeks. He’s caught 14 of 22 targets for 103 receiving yards in 2 games as a result. He’ll face a Patriots defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (84.7) and the 7^th fewest YPC (3.92). The Patriots allow the fewest YPC against zone concept runs (3.35), compared to the 7^th fewest against man/gap concept (3.92). Brown has a 50-50 split between the 2 rush concepts, averaging 4.21 YPC in zone concept compared to 4.08 YPC against man/gap. I lean under on his rushing props. The Patriots do however allow the 2^nd most receptions and 8^th most receiving yards to RB. I lean over receptions, especially with Ja’Marr Chase suspended for this game.

Suggested Pick:

Under 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Over 4.5 Receptions (-135)

WR Tee Higgins

In the 5 games with Joe Flacco at QB, Tee Higgins is averaging 77.2 receiving yards per game, 2.05 YPRR and 19% TPRR. That compares to 31.6 receiving yards per game, 0.99 YPRR and 17% TPRR in the first 5 games. Joe Burrow is questionable and may make his return for the first time since he suffered a turf toe injury in week 2. The Bengals will also be without Ja’Marr Chase as he’ll be suspended for this game following his spitting incident. We do not have any data to go off of without Chase as he’s ran just 12 routes without him since the start of last season. Joe Burrow had sizable negative splits when Chase played without Higgins last season, averaging 6.5 YPA compared to 8.2 YPA when he had both star receivers. The Patriots also have 1 of the top corners in the league (Christian Gonzalez), who they could have shadow him. He ranks 2^nd amongst all CBs in catch rate (44%) behind only Quinyon Mitchell. Higgins has run 88.8% of his routes out wide. The Patriots are allowing the 13^th most YPRR to wide alignment (2.05). In the games Christian Gonzalez has been healthy this season, the Patriots’ main 3 coverages in terms of frequency were Cover 3 (27.5%), Cover 1 (25.2%) and Cover 2 (19.9%). Higgins averages 1.55 YPRR and 17% TPRR against these 3 coverages, compared to 1.60 YPRR and 19% TPRR against all other coverages. Expecting Higgins to be peppered with targets, I lean over on receiving yards.

Suggested Pick:

Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

TE Noah Fant/Mike Gesicki/Drew Sample

Gesicki has been activated from IR and is expected to return for the first time since week 6. In the 4 games that all 3 of them have been healthy, Gesicki has led the team with a 45.4% route rate. Fant and Sample have a 27.6% and 26.3% route participation rates respectively in those games. Fant has been solid during the time the Bengals have been hit with TE injuries, but he’s only gone above a 45% route rate once without them. With all 3 of them active, it’s tough to trust any of them as any given week one guy leads the team in route rate. From a matchup perspective, the Patriots allow the 8^th most receiving yards and 9^th most receptions to TE. None of these guys have lines up yet and I’m inclined to just pass all together.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

Burrow is back but I expect some rust. This Patriots team is special and will dominate through the air and on the ground. Patriots win this by 7+.

Best Bet: Patriots -6.5 -140
Lean Under 50.5 -125
Score Prediction Patriots 30 Bengals 17

Anytime TD Scorer

Tee Higgins (Bengals) +125

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +175

First TD Scorer

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +1100

Tee Higgins (Bengals) +1050

Parlay #1 (Patriots) +694

Drake Maye 275+ Passing Yards
Hunter Henry 50+ Receiving Yards
Kayshon Boutte Under 2.5 Receptions

Parlay #2 (Bengals)

Chase Brown Under 53.5 Rushing Yards
Chase Brown 5+ Receptions
Tee Higgins Over 69.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay #3 (Longshot)+994

Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards
Hunter Henry 50+ Receiving Yards
Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown
Chase Brown Under 53.5 Rushing Yards

QB Tyrod Taylor

Taylor will take over for Justin Fields as starting QB for the Jets. In Tyrod’s first start in week 3 against the Bucs, he completed 26 of 36 passes for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. He also attempted 8 rush attempts for 48 yards on the ground. He’ll face a Ravens defense that has allowed the 9^th most passing yards per game (244.1) but the 10^th fewest yards per attempt (6.74) on the season. They have been tougher as of late, allowing the 17^th fewest passing yards per game (227.3) and the 6^th fewest YPA (6.23). In terms of the running matchup, the Ravens are middle of the pack against QBs. McCarthy ran for 48 yards, Caleb Williams ran for 24 yards, CJ Stroud ran for 30 yards and Josh Allen ran for 30. QBs run on this defense, but it’s been hit or miss. This game has a 44.5 implied total and the Jets are 13.5-point underdogs. Ravens likely control time of possession. Taylor is a much more willing passer compared to Fields, the coaching staff wants to see what they have in some of their young weapons (Mason Taylor, Adonai Mitchell, etc).

Suggested Pick:

Over 185.5 Passing Yards (-115)

RB Breece Hall

Breece Hall averages 72.2 rushing yards per game, 4.75 YPC and leads the league in explosive rush rate amongst qualified RBs at 9.9%. The Jets are the most run heavy team in the NFL, leading the league in run rate over expected. However, in Tyrod’s only start in week 3, the Jets did have a positive pass rate over expected, so expecting them to be a bit more pass heavy, especially as 2 touchdown underdogs. He’ll face a Ravens defense that allows the 13^th most rushing yards per game (121.5) and the 11^th most YPC (4.58). The Ravens allow the 2^nd fewest YPC (3.47) against zone concept runs, compared to the 2^nd most YPC (5.66) against man/gap concept. This is bad news for Breece, as 73% of his attempts have been in zone concept, where he averages 4.88 YPC. That compares to 4.55 YPC in man/gap. Breece has not been as involved in the receiving game as of late, catching just 7 receptions in the last 5 games. However, the last game Taylor started, he saw a season high 6 targets, catching 4 of them for 31 yards. Last week, Breece ran more routes than Isaiah Davis for the first time since week 6. It’ll be interesting to see if that trend sticks. The Ravens are allowing the 11^th most receiving yards to RB.

Suggested Pick:

Under 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

WR Isaiah Williams, John Metchie, Adonai Mitchell

The Jets will once again be without Garrett Wilson. Isaiah Williams (72.7%), John Metchie (69.7%) and Adonai Mitchell (60.6%) led the WR group in route rate last week without him. Metchie led the team in receiving, catching 3 of 3 targets for 45 yards. Mitchell led the team in targets with 6 but caught just 1 of them for 10 yards. 3 of those were categorized as drops. He had 104 total air yards. Adonai has always been excellent route runner, but he continues to be plagued with drops. Williams was targeted just twice and caught 1 for 2 yards. Tyrod Taylor should open this passing game up more compared to Fields. They’ll face a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 18^th most YPRR (1.45) and the 9^th most receiving yards per game (244.1). The Jets are 2 touchdown underdogs, so they will more than likely be forced to pass. I prefer to bet on Adonai Mitchell’s talent and pray he’s able to catch a few of his wide open targets.

Suggested Pick:

AD Mitchell Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-116)

AD Mitchell 50+ Receiving Yards (+200)

AD Mitchell Anytime Touchdown (+425)

TE Mason Taylor

On the season, Mason Taylor is averaging 27.6 receiving yards per game, 1.07 YPRR, and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. Tyrod Taylor starting for the 2^nd time this season in place of Justin Fields should open up this passing game (on the margin). In the 3 games without Garrett Wilson, Taylor is averaging 31.7 receiving yards per game on 4 receptions. He’ll face a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 18^th most YPRR (1.45) and the 9^th most receiving yards per game (244.1). The Ravens are middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed to TE. Taylor has also seen his route rate decline in the past 2 weeks to 56.3% and 54.5%. He had a 75.9% route participation rate from weeks 1 to 8. The coaching staff wants to see what they have in their young skill players, we’ll see if Taylor’s playing time creeps back up in a clear trailing game script.

Suggested Pick:

Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

QB Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson enters this matchup fighting through his least efficient three-game stretch of the season, completing 14 of 25 passes for 193 yards (7.7 YPA) with two interceptions against Cleveland while adding just 10 rushing yards. Even with the dip, he’s still handling man coverage well, averaging 7.78 YPA with a +2.7% CPOE and 3 rushes for 27 yards on 77 dropbacks against man. The Jets run man on 32.1% of snaps and allow the 7th-most passing TDs per game (1.8), even though their raw passing yardage allowed is strong at 211.4 per game. Without Sauce Gardner, their perimeter coverage has cratered — Zay Flowers had 225 yards vs zone last week and both Diggs (9/105) and Jeudy (6/78/1) have gashed them recently. The Jets have generated an elite 4.51 yards allowed per coverage snap vs zone this year but are suddenly giving up explosive plays at a higher rate (33% first-down-or-TD allowed in zone). Baltimore’s offensive structure should naturally force more intermediate attempts, and with the Ravens entering as 13.5-point home favorites, Jackson may finally be able to play from a position of control rather than chaos for the first time since returning from injury.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 208.5 Passing Yards (-115)

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry finally delivered a classic performance against Cleveland, posting 18 carries for 103 yards and a touchdown while adding 19 receiving yards. Henry has now hit 18+ carries and 71+ rushing yards in five straight games, owning 60% of the carries and 53% of snaps last week. The Jets allow only 1.54 adjusted yards before contact per attempt (3rd-fewest), but they’ve simultaneously given up the 11th-most rushing yards per game (100.9) because opposing offenses run against them at a high volume — they’ve faced the 6th-most RB carries per game (24.4). TreVeyon Henderson exploited their lane discipline last week with 19/62/2 rushing plus 31 receiving. Henry posted just 23 yards in the first Ravens-Jets meeting, but New York’s run-fit discipline has fallen sharply since the Gardner trade, and the Jets’ front is now giving up the 9th-highest missed tackle rate. Against a Jets defense that has surrendered 100+ rushing yards to RBs in four straight games and a Ravens offense that should control possession, Henry is poised for another heavy-volume, high-value workload.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 86.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers posted 3/78 receiving on five targets last week, maintaining an elite 94% route share and continuing his season-long trend of generating explosive intermediate production. Flowers has now topped 63 receiving yards in 9 of 10 games and averages 2.49 yards per route run and a 26% target rate vs man coverage, which the Jets deploy on 32.1% of snaps. The Jets allow the 11th-most yards per route run (2.07) to perimeter receivers and are suddenly vulnerable after trading Sauce Gardner — DeAndre Hopkins posted 162 yards on 50 routes vs man last week, followed by Zay Flowers hitting 225 yards on 196 zone routes in his most recent charting sample. New York has begun allowing WR1 types to consistently hit chunk plays, especially on crossers and intermediate sideline breaks, where Flowers averages over 13 yards per target. As Baltimore is unlikely to stall in the red zone the way they did vs Cleveland, Flowers is in the exact explosive-play environment that fits his usage profile.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews continues to win through sheer scoring efficiency, adding another touchdown last week — his fourth in three games — along with 3/32 receiving on five targets. His 68% route share remains stable, and his man-coverage efficiency is strong at 2.17 YPRR with a .25 targets-per-route rate on 72 routes. The Jets allow only 45.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends and the 13th-fewest receptions per game (5.1), but they also give up the third-most touchdowns to the position because their safeties crash aggressively vs the run, leaving seams open behind them. Hunter Henry just posted 4/45 last week and repeatedly found leverage against the Jets' linebackers. Andrews has nine red zone targets — more than Flowers and Bateman combined — and Baltimore is averaging the third-most plays per game inside the opponent’s 30-yard line. The yardage ceiling is capped by New York’s zone-heavy structure, but the touchdown equity remains elite.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+130)

Ravens have to win games NOW and they can't afford to drop a game to the damn Jets. The Ravens made so many mistakes last week against a good defense but I expect them to clean it up here and win in a dominant victory

Best Bet Ravens -12.5 -135
Lean Ravens 30+ Pts -118
Score Prediction Jets 10 Ravens 37

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Ravens) Mark Andrews +130

Mark Andrews continues to win through sheer scoring efficiency, adding another touchdown last week — his fourth in three games — along with 3/32 receiving on five targets. His 68% route share remains stable, and his man-coverage efficiency is strong at 2.17 YPRR with a .25 targets-per-route rate on 72 routes. The Jets allow only 45.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends and the 13th-fewest receptions per game (5.1), but they also give up the third-most touchdowns to the position because their safeties crash aggressively vs the run, leaving seams open behind them. Hunter Henry just posted 4/45 last week and repeatedly found leverage against the Jets' linebackers. Andrews has nine red zone targets — more than Flowers and Bateman combined — and Baltimore is averaging the third-most plays per game inside the opponent’s 30-yard line. The yardage ceiling is capped by New York’s zone-heavy structure, but the touchdown equity remains elite.

Adonai Mitchell (Jets) +550

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Ravens) Derrick Henry +285

Derrick Henry enters this matchup against the Jets fresh off one of his most efficient games of the season, handling 18 carries for 103 yards (5.7 YPC) and a touchdown while taking 60% of Baltimore’s rushing share. His workload has stabilized between 18–20 carries in five straight games, and the Ravens enter this week as massive 13.5-point home favorites, which strongly tilts early scripted red-zone volume toward the run game. The Jets' run defense is a strange split: they allow just 1.54 adjusted yards before contact per attempt (3rd-fewest) but still give up 100.9 rushing yards per game (11th-most) because opponents run heavily against them — they’ve faced 24.4 RB carries per game, sixth-most in the league. Inside the 10-yard line, the Jets have been vulnerable, allowing four rushing TDs in the last two weeks, including TreVeyon Henderson punching in two 1-yard TDs last Sunday. Baltimore has also opened games run-heavy in positive-script situations, giving Henry three opening-drive touches last week. With Baltimore’s offense likely to avoid the early passing struggles they faced against Cleveland and Henry already owning 40% of the team’s carries inside the red zone since joining Lamar in the lineup, he profiles as the most likely early-game finisher for an offense that ranks top-five in first-quarter scoring.

Adonai Mitchell (Jets) +3000

 Parlay #1 (Ravens) +250

Derrick Henry ATD
Zay Flowers 'O' 63.5 Receiving Yards
Lamar Jackson 'O' 208.5 Pass Yards

Parlay #2 (Jets) +631

Tyrod Taylor 175+ Passing Yards
Adonai Mitchell 50+ Receiving Yards
Adonai Mitchel Anytime Touchdown

QB Sam Darnold
Darnold enters this contest with impressive season-long numbers, including 191 completions on 272 attempts for 2,541 yards, 17 touchdowns, and a stellar 105.0 passer rating. However, he is looking to bounce back from a chaotic last outing where he threw 4 interceptions despite completing 29 of 44 passes for 279 yards. The advanced metrics suggest a massive rebound is likely; among 35 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks, Darnold ranks 2nd in completion rate (70.2%) and average depth of target (9.6 aDOT), 3rd in adjusted completion percentage (80.2%), and 6th in passing yards per game (254.1). He faces a Tennessee defense that runs zone coverage at the 13th highest rate (75.2%), specifically utilizing 2-high looks at the 3rd highest rate in the league. This plays directly into Darnold’s hands, as he holds the 5th highest passing grade against 2-high coverages and ranks 1st in completions of 20+ yards. Furthermore, while Darnold has a 29.3% pressure rate on the season, he ranks 1st in grading from a clean pocket, and Tennessee’s defense ranks a lowly 28th in pressure rate. Although the receivers have a high drop rate (2.6%, 34th highest) and Darnold's 64.7% first-read rate ranks 22nd, the matchup is great as long as they have to throw. I’ll fade his overall passing yards since I don’t think he’ll have to do much here. I do think explosive plays will be there, so I’ll back his longest completion.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 243.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Longest Pass ‘O’ 36.5 Yards (-110)

RB Kenneth Walker III
The primary concern for Walker is his health, as he popped up on the injury report with a glute injury and logged only a light practice Friday, making him officially questionable. If he plays, he brings a season line of 136 carries for 606 yards (4.5 YPC) and 4 touchdowns, plus 14 catches on 15 targets for 127 yards. In his last game, he managed 67 yards on 16 carries with a score. Among 38 qualified running backs, Walker ranks 18th with 4.46 yards per carry but is an elite playmaker with the 5th highest explosive run rate (7.4%), despite ranking 27th in stuff rate (48.5%) and 30th in yards after contact per attempt (2.04). He faces a Titans defense that allows a respectable 4.71 yards per carry but has surrendered the 7th most rushing yards per game (134.7) due (likely) to game script. Tennessee has also allowed 14 touchdowns to running backs, the third-most in the league. With Coach Mike Macdonald stating Walker is "earning more opportunities," he is the clear back to support over Charbonnet. If active, we have to assume he’ll get a normal workload. The play is Walker for rushing volume in a positive game script and, possibly, a touchdown.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 14.5 Carries (-105)

RB Zach Charbonnet
Charbonnet’s efficiency has plummeted, confirmed by a season stat line of 105 carries for just 350 yards (3.3 YPC) and 6 touchdowns. His last game was particularly poor, turning 11 carries into just 37 yards. Among the 38 running backs with at least 80 attempts, Charbonnet ranks dead last (38th) with 3.33 yards per carry and 32nd with a minuscule 2.9% explosive run rate. He is also stuffed at the line frequently (49.5% rate, 29th) and ranks 16th in yards after contact per attempt (2.39). While he has added 9 catches for 67 yards on the season, the metrics show he has come back to earth after a brief Week 10 spike. Unless Walker is ruled out—which would make Charbonnet a volume-based play—he is a fade, as he simply shouldn't be getting the workload he currently receives.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 5.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - LEAN (moot if Walker sits)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
JSN is having a historic season, leading the league with 1,146 receiving yards on 72 catches (74.2% catch rate) and 5 touchdowns. He is the first player ever to record more than 75 receiving yards in the opening 10 games of a season. His usage is elite: he commands a 34.1% target share, 44.8% of the team’s receiving yards, and 48.3% of the air yardage share, with a massive 125.6 passer rating when targeted. Last week alone, he saw 12 targets, catching 9 for 105 yards. He lines up out wide 79.9% of the time and in the slot 19.0%, which is notable because Tennessee has struggled mightily against outside receivers since losing L'Jarius Sneed, allowing big games to Nico Collins (9-92-1), Michael Pittman (8-95-1), and Quentin Johnston (4-53-1). Tennessee allows the 3rd most yards per game to opposing WRs, and with JSN ranking 1st in yards per game and boasting a 45.5% first-read share, he should be in for another big game unless they stop throwing. With that concern, I’ll look for an explosive play from JSN and a likely TD.

Suggested Picks
Longest Reception ‘O’ 27.5 Yards (-110)
Anytime Touchdown (+105)

WR Rashid Shaheed
Shaheed is a volatile option, currently sitting on a season line of 47 catches for 529 yards and 2 touchdowns with a 65.2% catch rate between NO and SEA. His involvement is increasing—he ran a route on 73% of dropbacks last week, up from 62% in his debut—but he only saw 5 targets in his last game, catching 2 for 27 yards. His advanced stats show he commands a 19.1% target share and 22.2% of team yards, with a 27.7% air yardage share between his time with the Saints and Seahawks. He plays 71.7% of his snaps out wide and 28.3% in the slot, with a solid 11.26 yards per reception and 3.42 YAC/R. While Tennessee is prone to giving up explosive plays and Shaheed has the speed to capitalize, the presence of Cooper Kupp and the potential for a run-heavy game script makes him risky. He is a pass for me this week until he shows some clear separation between him and Kupp.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE A.J. Barner
Barner has been highly efficient, catching 31 of 37 targets (83.7%) for 306 yards and 4 touchdowns this season. In his last game, he was a focal point, hauling in 10 catches for 70 yards on 11 targets. His deployment is specific: he aligns inline 84.5% of the time, with only 10.7% in the slot and 2.8% out wide. This alignment data is the key to the betting angle. While Tennessee generally allows the 13th fewest targets and 11th fewest receiving yards to tight ends, they allow the 5th most receiving yards specifically to inline tight ends. Barner ranks 4th among all tight ends in receiving yards from inline alignments. Additionally, he leads the Seahawks with 10 red zone targets (the next highest is 6). With a 6.0 aDOT, 9.9 yards per reception, and 4.3 yards after the catch per reception, Barner is a prime candidate for an anytime touchdown given his matchup and involvement in the short-yardage game.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown (+280)

QB Cam Ward
Cam Ward's struggles continue, with his season stats showing a 58.4% completion rate (34th among qualified QBs) for 1,954 yards, six touchdowns, and six interceptions. Last week, he completed 24 of 37 passes for 194 yards and one touchdown, adding 33 rushing yards on three carries. This week presents another brutal matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. Ward ranks 33rd in PFF grading against zone coverage, and Seattle plays zone at the sixth-highest rate (77.6%), primarily Cover 3. Compounding this, Ward ranks 34th under pressure, and the Seahawks boast the third-highest pressure rate in the league. Seattle's pass defense is allowing just 6.3 yards per attempt (third-lowest) and 9.9 yards per completion (second-lowest). To make matters worse, Ward will be without his top two wideouts, Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor, limiting his passing options. Given the Titans' lowest implied total of the season, a high-volume passing day is unlikely to be productive. While his passing outlook doesn’t look great, Ward has shown a willingness to use his legs in recent weeks, with 33 rushing yards last week and 2+ carries in each of the last 3 weeks. If you're looking for an over, his rushing yards prop is the most appealing.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 7.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard faces a brutal matchup against the Seattle Seahawks' stout run defense. Last week, he struggled in a tough game, carrying the ball 10 times for just 22 yards and catching three passes for four yards. For the season, Pollard has 129 carries for 502 yards (4.0 YPC) and two touchdowns, along with 22 receptions for 147 yards. His advanced metrics show a concerning 3.89 YPC (28th) and a low 2.3% explosive run rate (34th). Seattle's run defense is excellent, allowing the second-lowest yards per carry (3.6) and the fourth-lowest rushing yards per game (70.2) to running backs. Pollard has consistently had more rushing attempts than Tyjae Spears, while Spears has primarily served as the passing-game back. Ultimately, its a split backfield - almost 50/50. Given the Seahawks' dominant run defense, Pollard looks like a clear fade, but his lines are so low. Based on value, I’ll lean over rushing yards, but it feels better as a pass for me.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 34.5 Rushing Yards (-110) - LEAN

RB Tyjae Spears
Tyjae Spears' role as the passing-game back for the Titans gives him some appeal in this difficult matchup against the Seahawks. Last week, he had four carries for three yards but caught five passes for 31 yards. For the season, Spears has 34 carries for 155 yards and one touchdown, along with 18 receptions for 127 yards. While he averages a solid 4.56 YPC, he has been stuffed on half of his runs, highlighting his struggles against strong defensive fronts. He is more effective running in zone concepts (56.2% success rate) compared to man/gap (23.5%). A key weakness of the Seahawks' defense is their susceptibility to opposing running backs in the passing game, allowing the highest target rate (20.4%) to the position. If we are looking to back a running back in this game I think it is Spears, but in the passing game.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Chimere Dike
Chimere Dike is expected to be the Titans' top wide receiver this week, with both Ridley and Ayomanor sidelined, despite dealing with a concussion/chest injury last week. For the season, Dike has 23 receptions for 208 yards and one touchdown on 33 targets (69.6% catch rate). He primarily operates from the slot (71.3%). However, he faces a brutal matchup against the Seahawks' defense, which allows the third-lowest catch rate (56.9%) and a league-low 6.2 yards per target to receivers. While he'll undoubtedly see an increased target share as the primary option, it’s hard to imagine a big game given the matchup and struggles within this offense. This is a difficult spot to back Dike for any receiving props.

Suggested Picks
PASS

WR Van Jefferson
Van Jefferson is likely to step into the WR2 role for the Titans with Ridley and Ayomanor out. Last week, he saw a season-high seven targets, catching three for 22 yards and a touchdown. For the season, Jefferson has 17 receptions for 189 yards and one touchdown on 33 targets (51.5% catch rate). He primarily plays out wide (88.2%). The Seahawks' defense is exceptionally tough against outside wide receivers, allowing the third-fewest receiving yards per game (79.4), the lowest yards per target (6.06), and the second-lowest yards after the catch per reception (2.93). Despite the terrible matchup, the potential for high target volume due to injuries cannot be ignored after last week. While this game could get ugly for the Titans' offense, I’d lean towards his over as the most veteran option on this offense. Rookie Xavier Restrepo will likely make his debut this week, but it’s hard to know what to expect.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)- LEAN

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
Chigoziem Okonkwo is the most appealing betting option in the Titans' offense this week, despite being questionable with a foot injury (practiced limited Thursday). Last week, he caught all three of his targets for 56 yards. For the season, Okonkwo has 32 receptions for 337 yards on 42 targets (74.3% catch rate) with no touchdowns. He averages 10.5 yards per reception and 5.7 yards after the catch per reception. This matchup against the Seahawks is highly favorable for tight ends. Seattle allows the third-most targets per game (8.80), the most receptions (6.70), and the fourth-most receiving yards per game (69.3) to opposing tight ends. They also allow the eighth-highest yards per target (7.9). Given this significant defensive weakness, Okonkwo is poised for a rebound in production. This is the strongest spot to back a Titans pass-catcher. Bettors should confidently target the over on Chigoziem Okonkwo's receptions (at a line of 2.5) and also look for any potential betting lines for Gunnar Helm's receiving yards, as he could see increased work if Okonkwo's injury limits him.

Suggested Picks
Chigoziem Okonkwo ‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-135)
Gunnar Helm ‘O’ Receiving Yards (when it opens)

Best Bet: 'U' 40.5 Total
Lean: SEA -13.5
Score Prediction: SEA 27 - TEN 13

How could we possibly back TEN in this spot? They have one win this season and have the lowest implied team total we've seen this season. Still, laying 13.5 on the road is not something I typically advise. This could certainly be a "look-ahead spot" for SEA, but I feel like they tske care of business here and their defense limits a weak TEN offense without their top 2 WR's. I like the under with SEA letting their foot off the gas as they've shown us in the past.

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: A.J. Barner +280
A.J. has 4 more redzone targets than the nedt pass catcher! He is also used in tush-push formation. This feels like a value in a game where they could find themselves with a nice lead early. I'll pivot here as we wait to see if Walker plays.

Longshot (Titans): Gunnar Helm +625
Tight ends are about the only good matchup against this stout SEA defense and with an implied total less than two touchdowns, it only makes sense to back longshots here. Helm has noted chemistry with Ward and three more redzone targets than the starter Okonkwo. Without the top two wideouts in this offense, both TE's should see the field.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba +500
WR1's have feasted against this offense since losing L'Jarius Sneed, allowing big games to Nico Collins (9-92-1), Michael Pittman (8-95-1), and Quentin Johnston (4-53-1). This sets up so well for JSN, the best WR in the league this season. We are not sure how long this will be competitive, but we know Darnold should focus on his top wideout early and often.

Longshot (Titans): Chimere Dike +2800
Back to Dike! He steps into the WR1 role in this offense with Riley out for the season and Ayomanor. He's not only involved in the passing game, but they love to use him in the redzone rushing game on reverses. He's also the primary kick and punt returner so there are many ways he can score. Let's take a shot!

 Parlay #1 (Seahawks) +637
SEA Seahawks -12.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba LR over 28.5
Sam Darnold under 241.5 Passing Yards

Parlay #2 (Titans) +379
Cam Ward 10+ Rushing Yards
Chig Okonkwo over 2.5 Receptions
TEN Team Total under 17.5

QB JJ McCarthy

JJ McCarthy is beginning to become a problem for the Minnesota Vikings and their entire offence. It just looks so bland with him under centre, and even Justin Jefferson is visibly getting frustrated with the 22-year-old QB. This week, he'll get the Green Bay Packers, who allow the 7th most completions (23) and 8th most pass attempts (34.9) per game, but tighten up yardage-wise, giving up the 8th fewest passing yards (208.9) and the 9th fewest passing touchdowns (1.3). The matchup becomes even more challenging when diving into the Packers' most used coverages. Green Bay runs the 8th most zone coverage in the NFL (29.7%) and leans heavily on Cover 2 (17.5%) and Cover 3 (33.5%). Those are the exact coverages that have given McCarthy consistent trouble all season. Against zone coverage, he has faced 99 dropbacks and produced the lowest completion percentage among qualifying QBs at 53.5%, averaging 93.8 yards per game, and a disappointing 7.98 yards per attempt. He also struggles against Cover 2, as he has the lowest completion percentage (55.6%) on his 21 dropbacks, and the 12th lowest yards per attempt (6.6). His QBR sits at a respectable 94.4, but that's more inflated due to his low turnovers against the coverage. Against Cover 3, McCarthy completes just 52.5% of his throws and has the 6th lowest yards per attempt (6.25), along with the 2nd lowest QBR (51). Sometimes when McCarthy can't find a pass option, he'll use his legs instead. However, the Packers have done a phenomenal job of completely erasing QB rushing production, allowing a league-low nine rushing yards per game. The frustration is clearly growing within this offence, and McCarthy has been playing lately, and this isn't a matchup that sets up well for them to turn that around.

Suggested pick:

JJ McCarthy u213.5 Passing & Rushing Yards (-115)

RB Aaron Jones

If you had any doubts about Aaron Jones' health coming into last week, he let you know he was back and ready for a full workload – which he got, logging a season-high 16 rush attempts, turning that into 70 yards on the ground. This week, he gets the Packers, who allow the 10th most rush attempts (22.3), but allow just the 12th fewest rushing yards (85.5) per game. Green Bay leans slightly more toward zone run concepts (44.7%), with man/gap looks close behind (42.7%). Against zone, the Packers surrender just 3.7 yards per carry, the 7th lowest mark in the league. Against man/gap, they are more forgiving but still difficult, allowing 4.04 yards per carry, 11th lowest in the league. Jones averages a respectable 4.0 yards per carry when facing zone, while he jumps to 5.09 yards per carry against man/gap. Jones is also used in the passing game, seeing 5 targets in back-to-back weeks. While the Packers do allow the 6th most receptions to RBs (5.1), they don't translate into big plays, allowing the 14th fewest receiving yards (29.2) per game to the position. What did we see last week? Kevin O'Connell leaned more into Jones and the run game to take the ball out of McCarthy's hands. That should continue this week, especially with Jones facing off against his former team.

Suggested Pick:

Aaron Jones o13.5 Rush Attempts (-105)

WR Justin Jefferson

As we've already mentioned, Justin Jefferson's frustration is starting to show with how McCarthy is delivering him the ball. Volume hasn't been the problem; he's seen 21 targets over the last two games. But it's the quality of targets that led him to a 43% catch rate and 98 receiving yards. To put it in perspective, only 11 of those 21 targets were deemed catchable, for a 52.4% catchable target rate. And that won't get much easier this week against the Packers pass defence, who allow the 12th fewest receiving yards (130.4), but the 14th most receptions per game (11.5). One thing that goes in favour of Jefferson is that the Packers reliance on zone coverage. Jefferson has been the Vikings most dominant zone-beater all season, earning a massive 29.4% target share, catching 40 of his 60 targets for 564 receiving yards on 220 routes. His efficiency jumps across the board in zone coverage, where he has a 69.1% catch rate, 13.9 yards per reception, 6.9 yards after the catch per reception, and 2.86 yards per route run — all higher than his numbers against man. More specifically, Jefferson has shredded the exact coverages Green Bay uses most (Cover 2 and Cover 3). Against Cover 2, Jefferson is tied for the team lead with a 23.1% target share (with Hockenson), logging 145 receiving yards on just 9 targets. Cover 3 is an even bigger advantage, where he earns a massive 33.7% target share and has turned 21 catches into 327 yards on 98 routes. Jefferson runs 73.2% of his snaps out wide. To outside receivers, the Packers are targeted at the 7th highest rate, allowing the 9th highest catch rate (65.3%), but allow the 7th lowest yards per reception. Which, quite honestly, plays right into how it's been for McCarthy and Jefferson these past two weeks: high volume, low production. I don't love it, but Jefferson has been getting the volume and dominating the Packers' most used coverages, and somebody has to catch the ball, right?

Suggested pick:

Justin Jefferson 5+ Receptions (-200)

WR Jordan Addison

You thought it was bad for Jefferson; it's much worse for Jordan Addison. He saw seven targets last week, catching just two of those balls for 20 receiving yards. And that was against a Bears defence, the Packers have a much better defensive structure. Against zone, Addison has caught 19 of 35 targets for 306 yards, but his catch rate (45.5%), yards per reception (13.6), and yards per route run (0.99) all dip compared to his work against man coverage. All of that while having a 21.1% target share against zone. Against Cover 2, Addison sees an even smaller target share (14.7%), catching just 2 of 5 targets for 30 yards on 33 routes. Cover 3 has produced similar usage at 14.9% target share, but has totalled 71 yards on 11 targets across 66 routes. Like Jefferson, Addison lines up on the outside on 75.9% of his routes. And if Addison isn't getting the volume like Jefferson is, and the Packers don't provide a favourable matchup for the deep ball, it doesn't project to be a good week for Addison. Oh yeah, remember the 52.4% catchable target rate for Jefferson over the last two weeks? Yeah. Addison has a 43.8% catchable target rate over that same span. It's getting ugly in Minnesota, fast.

Suggested pick:

Jordan Addison u3.5 Receptions (-145)

TE TJ Hockenson

What if I told you TJ Hockenson's three receptions for 39 receiving yards tied for his second best yardage game of the season? And honestly, most of that came in garbage time. Not the most ideal situation, but it might be enough to spark a bit of a late-season comeback, especially against a favourable Packers defence, who allow the 4th most receptions per game (6.7) to opposing TEs and the 10th most receiving yards (60.7). Against zone coverage, Hockenson earns an 18.1% target share, catching 26 of 37 targets for 233 yards on 172 routes. That target share is miniscule when comparing it to his man splits (7.8%), but at least it's an improvement. He sees his yards per reception (9.5) and yards per route run (1.51) increase, but his catch rate (75%) and yards after catch (3.3) dip slightly. Against Cover 2, he earns a 23.1% target share — tied with Justin Jefferson for the team lead — and has produced 53 yards on 9 targets over 36 routes. Cover 3 has been even more productive, generating 129 yards on 12 receptions across 70 routes. Hockenson lines up inline on 43.2% of his snaps. Against inline receivers, the Packers are targeted at the 5th highest rate, but allowing the 10th lowest catch rate (76.1%) and the 2nd lowest yards per reception (7.2). If we are anticipating the Packers winning for most of this game, Hockenson will likely be the more relied upon target in the middle of the field, as we saw last week.

Suggested pick:

TJ Hockenson o2.5 Receptions (-155)

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love enters this matchup coming off a steadier performance where he completed 13 of 24 attempts for 174 yards (7.3 YPA) and 2 touchdowns despite four drops from his receivers. His play has remained volatile week to week, but Love has consistently attacked two-high structures well — something he will see at a league-leading rate against Minnesota, who plays two-high on 68.5% of snaps. Against the shell, Love averages 7.51 yards per attempt with a strong 7.2% completion percentage over expected and has added 52 rushing yards on designed looks and scrambles. Minnesota’s secondary has held opponents to the eighth-fewest passing yards per game (208.1) and the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns (1.4), but the scheme inherently gives Love favorable intermediate windows and forces defenses into heavy blitz rates. Brian Flores blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL (43.9%), and Love has been efficient when pressured or blitzed, ranking top-10 in YPA and top-5 in adjusted completion rate versus the extra rusher. Last season he posted 389/4 and 185/1 through the air in two meetings, consistently creating explosives when Minnesota rotated late. The path remains difficult statistically, but structurally, this is a defense Love has beaten before and has the traits to exploit again.

Suggested Play:

O 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)

RB Emanuel Wilson

With Josh Jacobs leaving last week due to a knee issue, Emanuel Wilson stepped into a near-full workload, handling 11 carries for 40 yards and a touchdown along with a nine-yard catch while playing 79% of snaps. If Jacobs cannot go, Wilson becomes the clear lead back again. Minnesota’s run defense presents a mixed challenge: they allow the 11th-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.79), a sign of strong interior control, but they also surrender the ninth-most rushing yards per game (104.4), largely due to volume and their two-high structure encouraging opponents to run. Wilson hasn’t been explosive — ranking bottom-five among backs with only a 1.9% explosive run rate and just 2.02 yards after contact per attempt — but the role would be substantial. Minnesota has allowed double-digit carries to an RB in seven straight games and just gave up 33/113/1 to Swift and Monangai last week. If Wilson again sees 80–90% of snaps, his value becomes volume-driven, especially near the stripe where Green Bay often uses downhill concepts.

Suggested Play:

O 48.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Romeo Doubs

Romeo Doubs continues to operate as the target-share leader of this receiving corps, seeing eight targets (31%) last week and maintaining a strong 72% route share despite two costly drops. Against Minnesota’s extremely high rate of split-safety and two-high looks (68.5%), Doubs profiles as the primary chain-mover — he averages 2.03 yards per route run and a 24% target-per-route-run rate against these coverages, both team-best marks. The Vikings allow the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers (94.6), but they also give up the highest yards per route run in the league to outside wideouts (2.50), signaling that while volume is suppressed, efficiency spikes when opponents connect. Doubs has logged 4/39 and 7/58 in two meetings last season and has been targeted heavily when blitzed — something Minnesota does more than any defense in football. The combination of scheme, alignment fit, and recent usage makes Doubs the most stable projection among Packers receivers in this matchup.

Suggested Play:

O 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Christian Watson

Christian Watson continued his big-play resurgence with 4/46/2 on just five targets and a team-best 79% route share last week. While his volume remains low, Watson has leveraged his vertical role effectively, logging eight deep targets over his last four games and averaging 1.73 yards per route run specifically against two-high — second on the team despite ranking just fifth in target rate (13%). Minnesota’s defense is highly vulnerable to explosive perimeter throws, giving up the third-most yards per target (10.06) and the highest yards per reception (16.31) to outside receivers. Watson’s downfield usage fits perfectly into that defensive weakness. The Vikings also allow the third-most fantasy points per target and fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter WRs since Week 7, overwhelmingly struggling when offenses isolate boundary threats against their rotated safeties. If Love continues to take calculated deep shots, Watson profiles as Green Bay’s most dangerous player on vertical concepts in this matchup.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+170)

JJ McCarthy has been really bad but over the last 3 weeks the Packers pressure rate has been down.

Best Bet: Vikings +7.5 -125
Lean Over 41.5 -110
Score Prediction Vikings 20 Packers 23

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Packers) Christian Watson +170

Christian Watson continued his big-play resurgence with 4/46/2 on just five targets and a team-best 79% route share last week. While his volume remains low, Watson has leveraged his vertical role effectively, logging eight deep targets over his last four games and averaging 1.73 yards per route run specifically against two-high — second on the team despite ranking just fifth in target rate (13%). Minnesota’s defense is highly vulnerable to explosive perimeter throws, giving up the third-most yards per target (10.06) and the highest yards per reception (16.31) to outside receivers. Watson’s downfield usage fits perfectly into that defensive weakness. The Vikings also allow the third-most fantasy points per target and fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter WRs since Week 7, overwhelmingly struggling when offenses isolate boundary threats against their rotated safeties. If Love continues to take calculated deep shots, Watson profiles as Green Bay’s most dangerous player on vertical concepts in this matchup.

Best Pick: (Vikings): Aaron Jones (+145)

Aaron Jones could not find the end zone last week despite his heavy usage, but he found paydirt the week before. With our prediction that the Vikings want to take the ball out of McCarthy's hands as much as possible, that should lead to a repeat of last week, when Jones was fed the ball over and over again. The Packers allow 0.6 TDs to opposing RBs per game this season – including two to Devin Singletary last week.

Longshot:

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Packers) Emanuel Wilson +650

Emanuel Wilson steps into this matchup positioned for true bell-cow usage if Josh Jacobs is ruled out or limited, and that alone dramatically increases his first-touchdown equity. After Jacobs exited early last week, Wilson handled 94% of the snaps, 100% of the RB carries, and a 73% route share, immediately becoming the clear focal point of Green Bay’s red-zone ground game. Minnesota has quietly become one of the league’s most extreme two-high defenses (NFL-high 68.5% two-high rate), which naturally lightens the box and encourages runs inside the 5-yard line. The Vikings have also shown vulnerability near the goal line despite solid overall efficiency metrics — since Week 7 they’ve allowed the 11th-highest rushing success rate and 13th-most rushing yards per game, and their stuff rate (11th-lowest) suggests backs are reaching the second level with regularity. Green Bay has scored a first-quarter touchdown in five of their last seven games, and Matt LaFleur has historically leaned on his RBs inside the 5, giving Wilson a very real chance at the team’s opening score if he retains last week’s role. At longshot pricing, his projected role and matchup dynamics make him a sharp value for first TD.

Best Pick: (Vikings) Justin Jefferson First TD (+700)

Jefferson has not scored the first TD in any game this season; however, in both games in which he did score, it was the first for the Vikings. Jefferson leads the Vikings with a 42.6% first-read percentage over the past two weeks with McCarthy, while the Packers have allowed nearly a full TD per game to the WR position.

 Parlay #1 (Packers) +470

Jordan Love 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs

Romeo Doubs 'O' 49.5 Receiving Yards

Christian Watson ATD

Parlay 1: (Vikings) +275 odds on bet365

JJ McCarthy u186.5 Passing Yards

Aaron Jones 10+ Rush Attempts

Justin Jefferson 50+ Receiving Yards

QB Jaxson Dart

Jaxson Dart returns from a Week 10 concussion to face a Detroit defense that continues to rely heavily on man coverage (37.6%, third-highest in the NFL) and a pressure structure that forces quarterbacks into tight-window throws. Dart’s profile vs. man this season has been volatile, producing 6.79 YPA with a -5.1% CPOE across 74 dropbacks, but he has also been decisive as a runner with 7/63/1 on designed or scramble attempts against man looks. Detroit’s defense has held opponents to the 11th-fewest passing yards per game (212.1) with a league-average explosive-pass rate allowed, but they have quietly allowed the 14th-most QB rushing yards per game, an area Dart can exploit. The Lions also produced one of their lowest pressure rates of the season last week despite blitzing Jalen Hurts at a top-five clip, indicating potential vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks who punish man coverage with off-script runs. Detroit’s secondary performs best when forcing quick decisions, but Dart has posted a 7.2% positive CPOE and efficient ball placement against two-high shells—looks Detroit mixes in on early downs. The matchup ultimately leans on Dart’s legs more than his arm, with New York likely leaning on rollouts and half-field reads to neutralize Detroit’s pressure.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+195)

RB Tyrone Tracy

Tyrone Tracy’s usage profile has stabilized into a clear early-down and open-field role while Devin Singletary handles the high-leverage red-zone work. Tracy logged 19/88 rushing with 4/51 receiving last week on a 51% snap share, showing the explosive-play ability that the Giants have leaned on in neutral game script. Detroit’s run defense presents a challenging front, giving up the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game (76.3) and the ninth-lowest explosive-run rate since Week 7 while allowing the fewest receiving yards per game (20.4) to running backs. The Lions’ front is built on interior penetration and lateral speed, minimizing yards after contact—an area where Tracy ranks just 30th among 54 qualifying backs. The path to production for Tracy runs through perimeter runs and designed misdirection, where Detroit has allowed 2.20 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, opening occasional creases. Tracy’s involvement as a check-down option should persist with Dart returning, but Detroit’s man coverage typically reduces RB target volume. Ultimately, Tracy projects as a volume-driven runner with limited scoring equity given Singletary’s monopoly inside the 5.

Suggested Play:
'O' 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

Wan’Dale Robinson stepped in as Jameis Winston’s primary chain-mover last week, drawing a 31% target share with 9 targets and a 94% route share. His role becomes even more solidified with Darius Slayton unlikely to play. Robinson has been New York’s most consistent separator against man coverage, producing 1.67 YPRR and a .21 target per route rate against the Lions’ preferred coverage structure. Detroit allows the 14th-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers (73.9) and the eighth-highest YPRR (1.87), with opposing offenses frequently using the slot to beat Detroit’s leverage-heavy man coverage. The Lions’ corners are physical at the catch point but have allowed steady completion rates on short/intermediate in-breaking routes—the exact area Robinson thrives. Last week, Detroit held DeVonta Smith to 8 yards, but Smith’s usage was constrained by Philadelphia’s inability to protect the quarterback; Robinson’s shorter aDOT and high-volume role make him less sensitive to pressure disruptions. Expect New York to rely on Robinson for spacing concepts, option routes, and quick game timing throws to offset Detroit’s pass rush.

Suggested Play:
'O' 5.5 Receptions (-110)

TE Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson stepped into a near every-down role with Slayton out, logging 84% of routes and posting 3/36 receiving. He has generated strong underlying efficiency vs. man coverage with 1.74 YPRR and a .16 TPRR on 87 routes, making him a surprisingly effective component of New York’s intermediate passing offense. Detroit allows the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends (48.4) but ranks 20th in touchdown rate allowed to the position, giving up soft zones in the low red zone due to their aggressive underneath man coverage. Johnson’s physical profile and usage in condensed formations make him the primary end-zone threat among New York pass-catchers. Detroit’s linebackers have allowed a 78% catch rate in man assignments and have struggled to match athletic tight ends on seam and over-routes—exactly where Johnson produces his largest gains. With the Giants funneling more targets inside with Slayton out, his scoring potential increases.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+245)

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff enters this matchup coming off one of his least efficient outings of the season, completing just 14 of 37 attempts (38%) and finishing with 255 yards (6.9 YPA), 1 TD, and 1 INT against the Eagles — a game where Detroit’s protection collapsed and Goff was pressured on 38.5% of his dropbacks. When kept clean, however, Goff has remained one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league. Against man coverage, which the Giants deploy at the highest rate in the NFL (40.5%), Goff has been extremely effective: 8.20 YPA, a 123.2 passer rating, a positive 1.9% CPOE, and one of the highest on-target rates on intermediate throws against man looks. The Giants have yielded the 12th-most passing yards per game (238.4) and the 10th-most passing TDs per game (1.7), while their man-coverage EPA allowed per dropback ranks bottom-eight since Week 7. Detroit’s interior protection has a favorable matchup here: New York generates pressure, but much of it comes from delayed or simulated pressures, which Goff historically punishes when he can hit hot routes in rhythm. With Amon-Ra St. Brown facing far softer matchups than he did against Philadelphia, and Jahmyr Gibbs likely to command mismatches against New York linebackers, this sets up as a strong rebound environment for Goff to retake full control of the passing script.

Suggested Play:
O 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+155)

RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery’s workload profile tightened last week as Detroit leaned heavily on Jahmyr Gibbs in the passing game and in space, leaving Montgomery with just 6 carries for 27 yards and a single catch against the Eagles. His role remains early-down and short-yardage focused, which becomes significantly more valuable in this matchup because the Giants field one of the league’s worst run defenses by every underlying metric. New York ranks second-worst in adjusted yards before contact allowed per attempt (2.73), third-worst in rushing yards allowed per game (116.8), top-four in missed tackle rate, and top-four in yards after contact allowed per attempt — a combination that directly aligns with Montgomery’s skill set as a downhill, contact-breaker back. With Detroit favored and expected to sustain more scoring drives than they did against Philadelphia, Montgomery projects to have multiple short-yardage scoring chances, and this is the type of game where his 10–14 carries can translate into disproportionate TD equity. The Giants allowed Emanuel Wilson and Josh Jacobs to combine for 80 yards and a score last week on just 18 carries, despite trailing early and seeing negative scripts.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown  (-140)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs was the only Lions player to consistently beat Philadelphia last week, recording 12/39 rushing and a dynamic 5/107 receiving performance with multiple explosive gains. His usage profile remains elite for matchup exploitation: 73% snap share, 57% carry share, and 64% route share in Week 11. Against the Giants, Gibbs faces a defense that is bottom-three in adjusted YBC/ATT, rushing yards allowed, yards after contact allowed, and explosive run rate allowed. Even more importantly, New York concedes the 14th-most receiving yards to RBs (30.2 per game), but over the last four weeks they’ve quietly allowed the third-most RB receiving yards as teams isolate Giants linebackers and safeties in man coverage mismatches. Gibbs has thrived against man: elite target rate, efficient YPRR, and the ability to create angles that force “catch-tackle-fail” situations. With Detroit’s offense correcting after last week’s collapse, Gibbs profiles as the most difficult matchup problem for New York’s defense in this game.

Suggested Play:
O 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Amon-Ra St Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown had one of the most statistically anomalous games of his career last week, posting just 2 catches for 42 yards on 12 targets — a staggering -4.5 receptions over expected, the second-worst mark ever recorded by NGS. Philadelphia’s trio of corners individually blanketed him, but this matchup is fundamentally different. The Giants run the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL (40.5%), and St. Brown has historically been one of the best man-beaters in football. Against man this season, he averages 3.10 yards per route run, a massive .39 targets per route, and remains the most efficient slot-based intermediate separator in the NFC. New York allows the ninth-most receiving yards to slot WRs (80.2 per game) and the 13th-most YPRR allowed to slot alignments (1.82). With Detroit returning home, indoors, with Dan Campbell’s pass script tightening without LaPorta, St. Brown profiles for a high-volume bounceback with significantly more stable efficiency than last week’s statistical outlier.

Suggested Play:

'O' 6.5 Receptions (-135)

WR Jameson Williams

Jameson Williams’ deeper usage profile has expanded since Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties. Last week he managed 2/73 receiving with multiple intermediate targets that weren’t strictly vertical isolation throws — a meaningful sign that Detroit is broadening his deployment rather than relegating him to decoy speed-threat usage. Against the Giants’ man-heavy structure, Williams’ speed stresses their weakest defensive component: transition coverage and deep-third leverage handoffs. New York allows the 12th-most receiving yards to outside WRs (109.0) and the 11th-fewest YPRR, but that number is skewed by opponents avoiding the perimeter due to New York’s overaggressive blitz tendencies. When opponents do target deep against this defense, the Giants have allowed an explosive pass on 13.7% of outside attempts, the fourth-worst rate in the league. Williams’ route depth provides direct access to that vulnerability, and his matchup with the Giants’ CB2/CB3 rotation — which has allowed multiple completions of 20+ yards in six of their last eight games — is one of Detroit’s clearest schematic wins.

Suggested Play:
O 25.5 Yard Longest Reception (-110)

The Lions this time of year loves to throw and Ireally expect them to have a lot of success here @Home

Best Bet: Lions TT 'O' 29.5 -165
Lean: Lions -12.5 -120
Score Prediction Giants 17 Lions 33

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Giants) Theo Johnson +245

Theo Johnson stepped into a near every-down role with Slayton out, logging 84% of routes and posting 3/36 receiving. He has generated strong underlying efficiency vs. man coverage with 1.74 YPRR and a .16 TPRR on 87 routes, making him a surprisingly effective component of New York’s intermediate passing offense. Detroit allows the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends (48.4) but ranks 20th in touchdown rate allowed to the position, giving up soft zones in the low red zone due to their aggressive underneath man coverage. Johnson’s physical profile and usage in condensed formations make him the primary end-zone threat among New York pass-catchers. Detroit’s linebackers have allowed a 78% catch rate in man assignments and have struggled to match athletic tight ends on seam and over-routes—exactly where Johnson produces his largest gains. With the Giants funneling more targets inside with Slayton out, his scoring potential increases.

Best Bet: (Lions) Jameson Williams +125

Jameson Williams enters this matchup with the Giants positioned for one of the clearest matchup-based spike-week setups of the season. His downfield role aligns directly with the structural weaknesses of the Giants’ defense, which plays the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL (40.5%) and has been repeatedly beaten vertically. Against man, Williams has posted 2.53 YPRR and a .32 TPRR on 61 routes — both strong indicators that his separation skills and deep-route explosiveness translate efficiently against single-coverage. The Giants have allowed the 12th-most receiving YPG (109.0) to perimeter receivers and the 13th-highest yards per route run (1.88) from out wide, and their personnel is even more vulnerable with Deonte Banks allowing a 115+ passer rating in man this season. This is the exact coverage shell where Detroit has dialed up Williams’ vertical targets (team-high 16.4 aDOT), and the Lions have faced man on 35%+ of their dropbacks in four of their last five games. With Detroit likely to dictate tempo indoors and Goff historically shredding man (123.2 rating, 8.20 YPA), Williams is live for a schemed deep shot or a horizontal-stretch YAC explosive against an aggressive Wink Martindale front.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Giants) Jaxson Dart +1420

Jaxson Dart enters this matchup against Detroit in a uniquely volatile position, combining one of the league’s highest man-coverage exposure rates from a defense (37.6%) with his own contrasting production splits. Against man, Dart has generated 6.79 YPA, a -5.1% CPOE, and has relied heavily on his legs when structure breaks—posting 7/63/1 rushing on 74 dropbacks. Detroit’s defense is built to funnel early-down aggression toward the QB, ranking top-eight in man-coverage YPRR suppression while simultaneously ceding the 14th-most QB rushing yards per game (19.9). They just surrendered 10/31/1 on the ground to Jalen Hurts, and in both previous games vs mobile quarterbacks, the Lions have allowed the first offensive TD to be scored by the QB on designed red-zone keepers or broken-play scrambles. With the Giants’ red-zone run distribution skewed toward Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy in traditional sets, the highest-leverage, lowest-friction path to an early score actually comes through Dart’s legs. His RPO keeper rate jumps to 18.7% inside the 10-yard line, and Detroit has allowed a league-high 42% conversion rate on QB rush attempts inside the 5. Given the matchup structure, his historical tendencies, and the Lions’ inability to contain dual-threat quarterbacks early in games, Dart becomes one of the strongest QB first-TD candidates on the Week 12 slate.

Longshot: (Lions) David Montgomery +595

David Montgomery steps into this matchup with a game environment and defensive profile that align almost perfectly with his touchdown-driven usage. The Giants field one of the league’s softest run-funnel fronts, ranking #2 in adjusted yards before contact allowed (2.73), #3 in rushing yards allowed per game (116.8), and #4 in yards after contact per attempt allowed since Week 7. This type of defensive inefficiency directly elevates Montgomery’s role because Detroit retains him as the primary goal-line finisher — he owns 62% of RB carries inside the 5 on the season despite Gibbs’ expanding role. The Lions’ offensive identity remains heavily skewed toward red-zone rushing: they run the ball inside the 20 at the 5th-highest rate in the league and have 10 rushing TDs in their last six games indoors. Meanwhile, the Giants allowed Emanuel Wilson and Josh Jacobs to combine for 18/80/1 rushing last week, and opponents have scored the fourth-highest rate of first-possession TDs against them. With Detroit favored, operating at home, and possessing one of the most efficient opening-script offenses under Ben Johnson, Montgomery projects to handle the first high-leverage goal-line touch if the Lions march down early — a situation the matchup strongly supports.

 Parlay #1 (Giants) +675

Tyrone Tracy 'O' 45.5 Rushing Yards

Wan'Dale Robinson 'O' 5.5 Receptions

Tyrone Tracy Jr. ATD

Parlay #2 (Lions) +450

Jameson Williams 'O' 60.5 Receiving Yards

David Montgomery ATD

Jahmyr Gibbs ATD

QB Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence enters this matchup in shaky form, having thrown interceptions in three consecutive games and completing just 59.8% of his passes on the season (31st among qualifiers). However, context is key: his receivers have the highest drop rate in the league (10.1%), skewing his numbers. The angle here focuses on game flow rather than explosive plays. With deep threat Brian Thomas Jr. out and Arizona playing heavy zone coverage (76.1%) with two-high safeties to limit big plays, Lawrence will likely be forced to be methodical. Arizona is missing cornerback Will Johnson, which has caused their pass defense metrics to plummet (25th in completion rate allowed without him). Given that Lawrence's current receiving corps features possession-based options like Jakobi Meyers and slot-man Parker Washington, the best approach is to back Lawrence’s completions over. He will have to take what the defense gives him underneath. He’s also almost a lock to throw at least one pick.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 19.5 Completions (-120)

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
Etienne is a risky proposition this week. While he practiced in a limited fashion with a shoulder injury, his workload is under siege. In his last outing, he saw a season-low 45.2% of the backfield touches, and before Bhayshul Tuten exited with an injury, the split was essentially 50/50. Among 38 RB’s with at least 80 rushing attempts, Etienne amassed a 4.37 yards per carry (15th), 3.9% explosive run rate (23rd), 52.6% stuff rate (26th), 2.27 YACO/A (21st). The matchup is undeniably attractive — Arizona has allowed 5.1 yards per carry and 114.8 rushing yards per game over their last five contests — but the volume uncertainty makes Etienne an uncertainty. If anything, I’ll fade here as long as Tuten is active.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 12.5 Carries (-110) - Assuming Tuten is active

RB Bayshul Tuten
Tuten is also questionable with an ankle injury, but if he is active, he presents as an interesting play. He finally broke out last week, cutting into Etienne’s workload with 74 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries before getting hurt. If he is cleared to play, there is no reason to believe his role will diminish, especially given Etienne's own struggles and injury issues. If Tuten suits up, look for him to attack an Arizona run defense that has softened of late. Assuming health, I’ll look to back his rushing yards as JAc leans on the run in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Parker Washington
Despite playing 91.7% of the offensive snaps last week in the absence of Brian Thomas Jr., Washington was targeted on just 9.1% of his routes—his lowest rate since Week 4. He manages the slot role (44.6% alignment) but has been inefficient, averaging just 11.67 yards per reception with a low passer rating when targeted (61.5). Arizona allows the 14th most receiving yards per game, but Washington hasn't shown he can command the volume necessary to exploit it. Given his full-time role and ARI forcing underneath passing, the only over to back here is receptions in my opinion.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-160)

WR Jakobi Meyers
Meyers has quickly established himself as the focal point of this passing attack without Thomas Jr. After a limited debut, his route participation jumped to 83.3% last week, and he led the team with a 27% first-read target share. He is operating primarily on the outside (69.0%), which is different from what we are used to for Meyers. Arizona's tendency to play two-high shells invites throws underneath and to the intermediate areas where Meyers excels (4.63 YAC/R). With Lawrence likely forced into a "dink-and-dunk" strategy, Meyers should see a high volume of targets. Back the over on his receptions as the most reliable play in the Jaguars' offense.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-120)

TE Brenton Strange
Monitor the inactive list, as Strange is working his way back from IR (21-day window). If he plays, this is a good spot. Before his injury, Strange was effective, ranking as the TE8 in yards per route run (1.61). He faces an Arizona defense that bleeds production to the position, allowing the 9th most receiving yards to tight ends and seeing opponents target the position at the ninth-highest rate (25.5%) in the league. If Strange is active, he becomes a sneaky option in this passing attack that has lacked a productive tight end.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jacoby Brissett

While the results have not been there, Jacoby Brissett has at least stepped in to make Arizona tolerable. The Cardinals were simply unwatchable with Kyler Murray. who failed to throw for over 220 yards in any start this season. Since Brissett has taken over under center, he is averaging nearly 260 passing yards per game. He has a good matchup in week 12 at home against Jacksonville, who faces the 2nd highest number of pass attempts per game (37.0). Arizona's offense has gotten off to horrible starts in each of their last two games, but Brissett has cleaned up during garbage time. Another thing that is favorable here is the Cardinals have not been able to get anything going on the ground. In his 5 starts, Jacoby Brissett has dropped back 47, 46, 37, 53 and 57 times. With Marvin Harrison Jr still sidelined he's taking less shots downfield, but this has allowed him to raise his accuracy. Jacksonville is surrendering the 7th most pass YPG (236.9), while allowing opposing QBs the 8th highest success rate per dropback. This should be a great spot for Brissett to find some success in on Sunday.

Suggested Bet: 

Jacoby Brissett 240+ Pass Yards (-135)

RB Bam Knight

Emari Demercado is just the latest on a long list of injured Arizona running backs. The good news is Trey Benson returned to practice this week following a torn meniscus, but he's not expected back until roughly week 14 or 15. For now, that leaves the Cardinals left with Bam Knight and Michael Carter to hold down the backfield. To complicate matters even more, the Jaguars have been a brick wall against the run this season. They are allowing a league-low 68.6 rush YPG on just 3.8 YPC (5th best), while holding opposing RBs to 0.95 per rush before contact. You would be wise to stay away from Knight or any other Arizona running back.

Suggested Bet: 

Pass

WR Michael Wilson

Marvin Harrison Jr. has already been ruled out for week 12. Last Sunday, Wilson took full advantage of MHJ's absence by catching 15 of 18 targets for 185 yards. This is also the latest case of Jacoby Brissett elevating one of his receivers. Now, he has the luxury of facing a Jaguars pass defense that is giving up the 4th most receiving yards per game (128.8) to opposing WRs lined up on the outside. Everything I discussed with regard to Brissett in this week's game guide is what lifted Wilson's production last week. The Arizona QB had 57 dropbacks last week, and we are staring right into the mirror of a similar game script on Sunday. Michael Wilson accounted for 32% of the Cardinals targets, along with 64.7% of air yards. What he did last week will be hard to replicate, but based on how this matchup breaks down, I'm not seeing much regression here for Wilson in a game with a suggested total of 47.5 points.

Suggested Bet: 

Michael Wilson o4.5 Receptions (-148)

WR Greg Dortch

TE Trey McBride

There's only so much that can be said for how reliable Trey McBride has been this season, but what he has turned on a weekly basis with Jacoby Brissett under center has been nothing short of improbable. In 5 games alongside Brissett, McBride has hauled in 42 of 57 targets for 443 yards and 6 TD. To put it in perspective, this places him ahead of both Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the NFL's WR1. Since week 6, the Cardinals TE ranks 2nd in receptions (42), 5th in receiving yards (443) and 2nd in TDs (6). McBride will have yet another exceptional matchup in week 12 against a Jacksonville defense that allows the 6th most receiving YPG (69.4) and 7th most receptions per game (6.4) to opposing tight ends. As an added bonus, the Jaguars own the 6th highest TD rate to the TE position (7.8%). Another great intangible with McBride is that he's extremely consistent and reliable, regardless of how the game script is playing out. He should be in for another big game at home on Sunday.

Suggested Bet: 

Trey McBride o7.5 Receptions (-126)
Trey McBride 9+ ALT Receptions (+132)
Trey McBride 10+ ALT Receptions (+225)

Brissett is the better QB for Arizona but the defense is bad. Give me the Over here

Best Bet: Over 46.5 -125
Lean Cardinals +3.5 -130
Score Prediction Jags 24 Cardinals 27

Anytime TD

Best Play (Cardinals):  Trey McBride  -130

Since Jacoby Brissett has taken over the reins at QB for Arizona, Trey McBride has turned into a touchdown machine. The Cardinals tight end has found the end zone 7 times this season, and 6 of those have come with Brissett under center. McBride has posted at least 1+ TD in each of the last 5 weeks, and he's without a doubt, Brissett's top target in the red zone.

Best Play (Jaguars): Bayshul Tuten -113
There is no doubt that Tuten was the more effective running before leaving last week with an ankle injury. Assuming he plays, he should continue to get work in this rushing attack and JAC has already showed a propensity to use him near the goal line. ARI has been more suceptible against the rush, especially with Will Johnson sidelined. Tuten could easily get most of the redzone work in this one and maybe both back score.

First Touchdown

Best Play (Cardinals):  Trey McBride  +600
At +600 odds, you would be crazy not to target Trey McBride for the First Touchdown this Sunday. He found the end zone just once all season with Kyler Murray at QB, but he's scored a TD in every single one of Jacoby Brissett's starts over the last five weeks. For added incentive, McBride will face a Jaguars defense that has already surrendered 7 touchdowns (2nd most) to opposing TEs. 

Longshot (Jaguars): Trevor Lawrence +1400
One of the few things really working for Tevor is using his legs. He has five rushing touchdowns on the season and has mutiple rushing touchdowns in two games. Thre is no reason he won't use his legs in this matchup, especially the way he has struggled against zone this season.

Parlay #1 (Cardinals) +266  DK

Jacoby Brissett 240+ Pass Yards

Trey McBride 8+ Receptions

Michael Wilson 5+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Jaguars) +553
Bhayshul Tuten 40+ Rushing Yards
Trevor Lawrence TD
Jakobi Meyers 4+ Receptions

QB Shedeur Sanders

Shedeur Sanders steps into Week 12 facing a Raiders defense that has quietly shifted into a more assignment-sound unit under Antonio Pierce, but one that still concedes a workable passing environment—ranking 16th in passing yards allowed per game (231.5) and 13th in passing TDs allowed (1.6). Sanders’ first meaningful NFL action last week displayed both mechanical inconsistencies and late-trigger processing: a 25% completion rate, 2.94 yards per attempt, and a 43.8% catchable ball rate highlight how frequently he was late, off-platform, or throwing into leveraged coverage. Still, his arm talent remains intact, and the Browns’ offensive structure gives him defined first reads and layered half-field concepts, which should benefit a young quarterback making his first full-game start. Las Vegas deploys Cover 3 on 45.7% of snaps—the second-highest rate in the league—and Sanders’ college tape showed comfort attacking single-high structures with dig/over concepts, glance RPOs, and one-on-one boundary isolation. Since Week 7, the Raiders have allowed the tenth-highest passer rating, third-highest CPOE, and seventh-lowest pressure rate, meaning Sanders should see more clean pockets and more defined reads than he did against Baltimore’s simulated pressures. His improvement this week will hinge on eye discipline against the curl-flat defenders in Cover 3 and whether Cleveland can maintain early-down efficiency to keep him out of must-pass situations.

Suggested Play:

Pass

RB Quinshon Judkins

Quinshon Judkins continues to operate as Cleveland’s volume anchor, handling 59% of snaps, 68% of carries, and 30% of routes last week, but his efficiency has cratered behind Cleveland’s injury-shuffled offensive line—falling to 3.95 YPC, 1.59 yards before contact, and a 56.1% stuff rate. His rushing style is heavily gap-oriented (56.1% gap-run usage), and while Las Vegas ranks top-five in limiting yards before contact (1.64 YBC/ATT allowed), their defense has been vulnerable to consistent body blows: the fourth-highest rushing success rate allowed since Week 7 and the 11th-highest missed tackle rate over the same span. The Raiders have also faced 18+ carries from a single back in three straight weeks, a workload profile that aligns perfectly with Judkins’ role. With Shedeur Sanders under center, Cleveland is likely to lean into run-centric scripts early, using power/counter schemes to neutralize Maxx Crosby’s edge disruption and keep Sanders out of high-leverage dropbacks. Pure efficiency may again be middling, but Judkins’ path to production comes through volume, inside-the-five opportunities, and a Raiders defense allowing the fifth-most rushing TDs per game (.9).

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+115)

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy remained Cleveland’s most targeted perimeter option last week with a 27% target share, but the results have been consistently underwhelming—eight of his last nine games have fallen below 51 yards. The underlying metrics paint the picture: 1.02 YPRR, a 35.6 YPG baseline, and a 26.9% first-read share that rarely converts into explosive plays because of route depth and timing issues in this passing game. Still, this matchup is tailor-made for perimeter receivers. Las Vegas plays Cover 3 at the league’s second-highest rate (45.7%), and Jeudy’s 82-route sample vs. Cover 3 shows a 22.5% target rate from last season and a respectable 6-for-72 output against this same defensive structure. The Raiders allow the third-most yards per game to boundary receivers (132.2) and the fifth-highest YPRR allowed to perimeter targets (2.29). Since Week 7, their outside-corner trio has allowed explosive passes at the fourth-highest rate in the league, particularly on deep crossers and outbreaking routes—which are Jeudy’s best separators. Cleveland will scheme him horizontal stretch opportunities to simplify reads for Sanders and leverage Jeudy’s ability to win underneath and after the catch.

Suggested Play:
'O' 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Harold Fannin

Harold Fannin’s involvement dipped last week due to Cleveland operating a run-out script and Sanders’ struggles sustaining drives, but his matchup this week is far more favorable. Fannin has been one of Cleveland’s most efficient targets per route (2.35 YPRR vs. Cover 3, .28 TPRR), and the Raiders present precisely that coverage profile. Las Vegas allows the fifth-fewest TE yards overall (39.5 YPG), but that number is misleading—teams rarely target tight ends heavily against them because perimeter matchups are even softer. When targeted, Raiders linebackers have allowed the 12th-highest EPA per TE target and the eighth-highest success rate on intermediate in-breakers (8–14 yards), which aligns with Fannin’s seam and bender usage. If Njoku remains limited or out, Fannin’s route share should rebound toward the 65–70% range he saw earlier in the year, and Sanders’ tendency to target middle-of-field breakers late in the down should funnel additional looks his way. Expect Cleveland to lean on quick game, Y-stick, and seam-read concepts to settle Sanders’ rhythm—Fannin is naturally positioned for 4–6 high-leverage targets.

Suggested Play:
'O' 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith enters this matchup facing one of the most punitive pass defenses in football, and the data suggests it’s unlikely he finds relief against Cleveland’s structure. Smith’s 27/42, 238-yard outing against Dallas marked a slight improvement in efficiency, but his 5.7 YPA and continued turnover issues (13 INTs) paint a clear picture of instability when pressured or forced into tight-window throws. Cleveland runs man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league (38.6%), and against man Smith has generated just 7.30 YPA, a -6% CPOE, and only 5/46 rushing production across 94 dropbacks—metrics that point toward significant strain whenever his first read is erased. Cleveland allows the fewest passing YPG in the NFL (184.2), ranks bottom-five in explosive pass rate allowed, and enters the week with the second-best pressure rate since Week 7. The Browns’ coverage rotations force QBs into late throws, and Smith’s accuracy declines sharply outside rhythm timing concepts. With Cleveland also permitting the fourth-lowest success rate per dropback, this matchup projects as one where efficiency and sustained drives will be difficult to come by unless the Raiders can run the ball effectively enough to soften Cleveland’s fronts.

Suggested Play:

'U' 199.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

RB Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty’s utilization nosedived last week, logging only six carries in a game script that drifted away from early down balance, but his passing involvement (6/27 receiving) once again highlighted the Raiders’ reliance on him as a primary outlet when the structure of the play breaks down. Jeanty ranks ninth among RBs in missed-tackle rate, and his lateral acceleration continues to function as the team’s best countermeasure against front-side penetration. He will need every bit of that agility this week against a Browns defense that suppresses interior run efficiency with the 10th-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (0.175) allowed and elite execution from their down linemen in both gap and zone fits. However, since Week 7, Cleveland has been softer than their season-long numbers suggest—giving up the sixth-most rushing YPG, the fifth-highest explosive run rate, and the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt, largely due to second-level inconsistencies and over-aggression up front. If Las Vegas commits to stabilizing their offense with early down Jeanty volume—rather than placing Geno into longer down-and-distance—Jeanty can exploit run lanes created by defensive flow. Volume is his path here, not efficiency, but the matchup is workable if Las Vegas avoids abandoning the run.

Suggested Play:

O 78.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers reclaimed his central role last week with 12 targets, 7 receptions, and 72 yards, operating with a massive 94% route share and once again demonstrating that the Raiders’ pass game funnels directly through him in high-leverage situations. Against man coverage—Cleveland’s preferred shell—Bowers has posted an elite 2.86 YPRR and .32 TPRR across 56 man-coverage routes, showcasing his ability to win both horizontally and vertically against single coverage structures. The challenge, however, is Cleveland’s discipline defending tight ends: they allow the eighth-fewest TE receiving YPG (42.3), the sixth-fewest receptions per game, and just allowed only 32 yards to Mark Andrews despite Andrews’ matchup-specific usage. Cleveland typically brackets power slots and compresses middle-field windows, but Bowers’ separation skill against man makes him the most matchup-proof receiving option on the roster. If Las Vegas trails—and the matchup suggests they will—Bowers’ volume projects to remain extremely high, even in a low-efficiency environment.

Suggested Play:

'O' 5.5 Receptions (-135)

WR Tre Tucker

Tre Tucker broke a multi-week slump with a 4/47/1 performance on eight targets last week, supported by a 94% route share and a more stable role as the primary perimeter separator. The Browns’ secondary structure creates stress for receivers who struggle to win quickly off the line: Cleveland runs single-high at the second-highest rate (64.3%), leveraging boundary press and forcing WRs into precision routes. Against single-high (excluding Week 3), Tucker has produced a 15% TPRR and 1.25 YPRR, a usable profile but not one that consistently earns first-read priority. Cleveland allows the 10th-fewest receiving YPG (93.7) to perimeter WRs, but they have shown vulnerability to speed-based separators when the pass rush doesn't immediately land—Zay Flowers’ 3/78 line last week is a good example of how motion, leverage, and vertical stems can test their corners. Tucker’s role in the deep/intermediate portions of the field gives him volatility but also the highest non-Bowers explosive probability in the offense. The matchup is difficult, but the path is clear: manufacture space with motion and force Cleveland’s DBs into turn-and-run situations.

Suggested Play:

'U' 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Sanders looked awful last week and although I do expect him to be better I still dont think he gets the win on the road. Give me the Raiders ML

Best Bet Raiders ML -192
Lean Under 36.5 -118
Score Prediction Browns 10 Raiders 17

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Browns) Quinshon Judkins +105

Quinshon Judkins continues to operate as Cleveland’s volume anchor, handling 59% of snaps, 68% of carries, and 30% of routes last week, but his efficiency has cratered behind Cleveland’s injury-shuffled offensive line—falling to 3.95 YPC, 1.59 yards before contact, and a 56.1% stuff rate. His rushing style is heavily gap-oriented (56.1% gap-run usage), and while Las Vegas ranks top-five in limiting yards before contact (1.64 YBC/ATT allowed), their defense has been vulnerable to consistent body blows: the fourth-highest rushing success rate allowed since Week 7 and the 11th-highest missed tackle rate over the same span. The Raiders have also faced 18+ carries from a single back in three straight weeks, a workload profile that aligns perfectly with Judkins’ role. With Shedeur Sanders under center, Cleveland is likely to lean into run-centric scripts early, using power/counter schemes to neutralize Maxx Crosby’s edge disruption and keep Sanders out of high-leverage dropbacks. Pure efficiency may again be middling, but Judkins’ path to production comes through volume, inside-the-five opportunities, and a Raiders defense allowing the fifth-most rushing TDs per game (.9).

Best Pick: (Raiders) Ashton Jeanty -105

Ashton Jeanty enters this matchup against Cleveland in a spot where Las Vegas may have no choice but to lean on the run early, even against one of the league’s toughest fronts. Jeanty’s usage has remained stable despite last week’s bizarre six-carry outing, with five straight games of 18+ touches prior to the Dallas loss and a consistent, high-leverage receiving role that keeps him involved in all game scripts. Cleveland’s run defense is elite in efficiency metrics — allowing just 1.75 adjusted yards before contact per attempt and ranking top-10 in both rushing yards allowed and receiving yards allowed to RBs — but they’ve shown vulnerability at the goal line, giving up the fifth-most rushing touchdowns per game (.9) and struggling against explosive runs since Week 7. Jeanty ranks ninth in missed-tackle rate and continues to operate as Las Vegas’ most dynamic short-area option, and with Cleveland generating the second-best pressure rate over that same span, short fields and red-zone carries could tilt his way early. This matchup is difficult, but Jeanty’s combination of volume, tackle-breaking ability, and red-zone access puts him firmly in the conversation for Las Vegas’ first scoring opportunity.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Browns) Jerry Jeudy +1920

Jerry Jeudy enters this matchup having one of the strangest profiles in the league: strong underlying usage but minimal production. He leads Cleveland in first-read share (26.9%), deep targets (11), and red-zone targets (8), yet has cleared 51 yards only once in his last nine games. That combination—steady involvement but suppressed output—typically signals volatility rather than irrelevance, and this opponent amplifies that volatility upward. The Raiders play Cover 3 at the league’s second-highest rate (45.7%), and Jeudy draws a massive efficiency spike against that look, posting 82 routes with a .51 yards per route run and a .18 targets per route run—numbers that look pedestrian until contextualized by Las Vegas’ coverage issues. Since Week 7, the Raiders have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter WRs and the fourth-most yards per route run, and their deep-ball defense has cratered with a bottom-five CPOE allowed and the third-highest explosive-pass rate surrendered. With Shedeur Sanders likely starting again, expect Cleveland to lean on simplified perimeter concepts—slant/flat, flood, mirrored outs—and Jeudy is the primary beneficiary of those compressed progressions. Add in his team-leading high-leverage usage and the fact that Las Vegas has allowed an opening-drive touchdown in three of their last four games, and Jeudy stands as Cleveland’s likeliest first-score option.

Longshot: (Raiders) Tre Tucker +940

Tre Tucker’s role stabilized last week, logging a season-high 94% route share while re-emerging with eight targets and a score. His usage without Jakobi Meyers remains strong — a 20.5% first-read share, eight deep targets, and steady perimeter alignment — which becomes particularly relevant against a Browns secondary that plays man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league (38.6%) and single-high shells on 64.3% of snaps. Tucker averages 1.42 yards per route run against man and has been one of the Raiders’ few receivers capable of creating separation quickly, something that’s critical against a defense generating the fourth-highest success rate per dropback since Week 7. Cleveland excels at suppressing yardage but has shown cracks, ranking 17th in points per target to perimeter WRs over that span and recently allowing explosive plays to Zay Flowers and Jerry Jeudy in similar alignments. With his route volume, vertical usage, and red-zone involvement (five red-zone looks since Week 3), Tucker profiles as the most likely Raiders pass catcher to break open a scoring play despite the difficult matchup.

 Parlay #1 (Browns) +540

Jerry Jeudy 'O' 34.5 Receiving Yards

Harold Fannin 'O' 32.5 Receiving Yards

Quinshon Judkins ATD

Parlay #2 (Raiders) +395

Ashton Jeanty ATD

Tre Tucker 'U' 35.5 Receiving Yards

Geno Smith 'U' 199.5 Pass Yards

QB Kirk Cousins

Michael Penix is just 25 years old, but after 3 ACL tears one has to wonder if this franchise can afford to continue investing in a quarterback who is wildly inaccurate, has poor pocket presence and is quite possibly slower than Kirk Cousins. These are all questions Atlanta will have to answer in the offseason. In the meantime, the Falcons will hand the ball off to Kirk Cousins, who has issues of his own. The veteran QB has breached that critical late stage in his career where his arm strength is probably never coming back. Be that as it may, Cousins is who ATL is rolling with for the remainder of the season, and despite facing a 2-8 Saints team, this is not a great matchup for Kirk. Upon entering last week's game in the 3rd quarter, Cousins completed just 6 of 14 passes for 48 yards (3.0 YPA). Now, he will go up against a New Orleans defense who deploys the 3rd highest rate of Cover-3 in the NFL (40.2%). Cousins confronted Cover-3 on 151 dropbacks last season, and the results were not good. He averaged just 7.78 YPA with an 86.0 passer rating, to go with a 5.4% CPOE. Even though the Saints have spent the majority of their season playing from behind, they have still managed to give up the 6th fewest pass YPG in the league (207.6). Believe it or not, Cousins has actually been less aggressive downfield (7.7 aDOT) yards depth of throw than Penix (8.6 aDOT). Saddled with a dead arm and no Drake London for week 12, I don't see Cousins eclipsing the 200+ passing yard mark this Sunday against a New Orleans defense that limited Bryce Young to just 124 yards and is coming in off a bye.

Suggested Bet: 

Kirk Cousins u206.5 Pass Yards (-113)

RB Bijan Robinson

After seemingly disappearing, Raheem Morris finally got Bijan Robinson involved in the Atlanta running game. After back-to-back games in which the Falcons RB saw just 9 and 12 carries, Robinson has rebounded for games of 17-84-0 (vs IND) and 23-104-2 (vs CAR). With Drake London sidelined, and Bijan left as the only true playmaker in this Falcons offense, one has to assume he will be the focal point of the offense this Sunday. With Kirk Cousins on the field in '25, Robinson has carried the ball 16 times for just 40 yards (2.5 YPC). Still, this is a very small sample size, and there is reason to believe in Bijan in week 12. Last season with Cousins performing horribly before being benched, Robinson still managed to accumulate 135, 101 and 135 yards out of the backfield. He will face a New Orleans rush defense that is giving up 4.1 YPC (14th in NFL). Again, with no Drake London available, I expect Cousins to lean heavily on Bijan in both the running and pass-catching phases of the offenses.

Suggested Bet: 

Bijan Robinson 120+ Rush+Rec Yards (-157)

WR Darnell Mooney

Without Drake London, the wide receiver position in Atlanta is razor thin. We are basically left with Darnell Mooney, who is averaging 2.0 receptions and only 28.0 receiving YPG. The 6th year WR out of Tulane has a season-high receiving mark of just 44 yards this season, and he's yet to find the end zone in '25. Logic would tell you that Mooney's production should see an uptick with London out, but when faced with this exact scenario in week 8, he caught only 1 of 4 targets for 11 yards. In an evil twist of irony, this also happened to be the one game Kirk Cousins started in place of Michael Penix. Don't fall victim to this trap for the second time.

Suggested Bet: 

Darnell Mooney u4.5 Receptions (-163)

WR KhaDarel Hodge/David Sills

We don't even know if Kirk Cousins will be able to get Darnell Mooney going on Sunday, so laying money down on KhaDarel Hodge or David Sills would be taking a huge shot in the dark. In the one game Cousins started in place of Michael Penix in week 8, KhaDarel Hodge had double the number of targets than Darnell Mooney, but he still only hauled in 3 of those 8 balls for 31 yards. David Sills caught just 2 of 3 targets for 14. Casey Washington also finds himself in the receiver fold, so neither of these are worth the risk of taking a flyer on.

Suggested Bet: 

Pass

TE Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts is our best option outside of Bijan Robinson for this Sunday. He caught just 2 of 3 targets for 14 yards in week 11, but his usage with Kirk Cousins under center gives us cause for optimism. In Cousins' week 8 start, Kyle Pitts led the Falcons by catching all of his team-high 9 targets, finishing with 59 yards receiving. He's averaging 4.7 receptions for 43.4 receiving YPG, and has great matchup appeal this Sunday when he faces a New Orleans team, where 28.5% of its opposing receptions have gone to the TE position (7th highest). The Saints are also allowing 7.5 YPT (13th most) along with a 7.0% touchdown-rate (10th highest) to opposing tight ends. To be fair, it needs to be pointed out that Pitts has seen a career-low, 9.2 YPR this season, so his reception total is the best spot to attack.

Suggested Bet: 

Kyle Pitts o4.5 Receptions (-170)
Kyle Pitts 6+ ALT Receptions (+114)
Kyle Pitts 7+ ALT Receptions (+211)

QB Tyler Shough

For Tyler Shough, it took 2 starts for him to do what it took Spencer Rattler 12, and that is win a football game as a starting QB. In his second NFL career start, Shough completed 19 of 27 passes for 282 yards (10.4 YPA) and 2 TDs. He added 5 carries for -1 rushing yards, so he's not likely to give us anything on the ground. Granted, this came against an offensively inept Carolina Panthers team, but Shough still won this game on the road, a setting Spencer Rattler is 0-5 in for his career. Tyler Shough has made only 2 starts and played a total of 10 quarters in the NFL, but the numbers within a limited sample size already tell us a lot about the 2nd round pick out of Louisville. The key factor in Shough's success or lack thereof can be attributed to providing him with a clean, uninterrupted pocket. Without pressure, Shough has completed 45 of 62 passes (72.6%) for 481 yards (7.8 Y/A) with 2 TDs and INT. However, when under pressure, the rookie quarterback is just 6 of 21 (28.6%) for 105 yards (5.0 Y/A) to go with a TD, INT. The big reason for Shough's solid performance in Carolina two weeks ago is because the Panthers have the lowest pressure rate in the NFL (27.5%). He will now have to face an Atlanta defense that brings the 13th highest rate of pressure (38.0%), while ranking 2nd in blitz rate (40.8%). We have a line of -122 for Tyler Shough to throw an INT, and everybody should be jumping on this before it climbs. He's been picked off twice this season, and those INTs have come against Tampa Bay (41.0% PR) and the LA Rams (38.6% PR), who rank 3rd and 11th respectively in pressure rate. The Bucs and Rams defenses have both recorded 10 INTs (t4th), and the Falcons are right behind them with 8. ATL has forced opposing QBs to throw at least 1+ INT in 6 of 10 games this season, and they've recorded 2 interceptions vs Josh Allen and J.J. McCarthy, who happens to be the only rookie the Falcons have faced this season. Given the similar numbers  to TB and LAR with regard to pressure and blitz rate, coupled with Shough being a rookie QB, I look for him to give at least one away to ATL in this game.

Suggested Bet: 

Tyler Shough 1+ Interceptions (-122)
Tyler Shough 2+ ALT Interceptions (+392)

RB Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara is listed as questionable for week 12, so you will need to monitor his status leading up to Sunday's game vs Atlanta. That aside, Alvin Kamara finally produced a solid game as a result of New Orleans playing with a lead, which allowed him to post solid usage and volume numbers. While he didn't find the end zone, Kamara amassed 115 yards on a season-high 25 touches. To put in perspective just how little he's been used, Kamara had 29 touches for 91 yards in his three previous games combined. This Sunday's matchup against the Falcons is one that could yield additional usage for Kamara with the likelihood of this game being low-scoring and remaining close. Atlanta's rushing defense has also dropped off with each passing week. They did manage to hold down Rico Dowdle last Sunday, but since coming off a bye in week 5, Atlanta has allowed 4.8 YPC (8th highest) and 34.8 receiving YPG to opposing RBs. I still wouldn't go falling in love with the Saints running back after just one week, but Rashid Shaheed's departure has opened up opportunities for Kamara. We have a rookie QB facing a defense that likes to put pressure on its opponent, going up against a veteran QB with a dead arm on the road. In addition to the low total expected for this game, it just seems like a day where points are going to be at a premium. These two are also division rivals, so they know each other's tendencies. I expect this to be a low scoring game, and that's going to give Kamara plenty of work out of the backfield.

Suggested Bet: 

Alvin Kamara o14.5 Rush Attempts (-148)

WR Chris Olave

Prior to the Saints 11 bye, Chris Olave caught 5 of 8 targets for 104 yards and a TD in Carolina. With Tyler Shough under center, Olave hauled in a career-long, 62-yard touchdown reception. The trading away of Rashid Shaheed has further added value to Olave, as he's now seeing a team-leading 31.0% target share, along with 52.5% of air yards. I spoke earlier about the Falcons ability to bring pressure on Shough, so Olave's ceiling will not be as high this week, however it doesn't mean he's not going to produce in this spot. Atlanta's defense runs more Cover-3 than any other team in the NFL (50.5%), and Olave's target share rises to 34.2% with 2.9 YPRR against this coverage scheme. Recently, the Falcons have allowed opposing WRs to put up some hefty numbers. Jaylen Waddle (5-99-1), DeMario Douglas (4-100-1), Alec Pierce (4-84-1) and Tetairoa McMillan (8-130-2) have all torched ATL as of late. It's currently filled to the brim with juice, but Olave's most valued prop can be found in his reception total right now.

Suggested Bet: 

Chris Olave o4.5 Receptions (-188)
Chris Olave 6+ ALT Receptions (+104)
Chris Olave 7+ ALT Receptions (+191)

WR Devaughn Vele

Devaughn Vele has played just one game without Rashid Shaheed, and in that game he was on the field for 100% of the Saints dropbacks, while running a team-high 30 routes. This all looks great, but in the end it still yielded only 1 catch on 3 targets for 15 yards. The fact is, even without Shaheed, Devaughn Vele is still the 5th option behind Olave, Johnson, Kamara and Taysom Hill in the New Orleans offense. 

Suggested Bet: 

Pass

TE Juwan Johnson

The one thing Atlanta and New Orleans have in common this week is that both should see production from their respective tight end positions. Concerning the Saints, Juwan Johnson is coming off a game in week 10 where he hauled in all 4 of his targets for 92 yards to go with a TD. We're certainly not putting Shough/Johnson in the same company as Brissett/McBride, but Juwan has caught a TD in both of his starts with Tyler Shough under center. Furthermore, Johnson has been on the field for 82% of the Saints dropbacks, while garnering an 18.2% target rate. Despite it being week 12 we still don't truly know how well ATL defends the TE position. They have faced the 2nd fewest targets per game of any team in the league (4.8), yet the Falcons are allowing just under 8.0 YPT (8th most). The only truly strong tight end they have faced is Tyler Warren (IND), who went for 8-99-0. Next to him, they've faced several middle of the road guys. I still think Johnson has value this week as a big strong target who will provide Tyler Shough with a safety blanket.

Suggested Bet: 

Juwan Johnson o3.5 Receptions (-174)
Juwan Johnson 5+ ALT Receptions (+119)
Juwan Johnson 6+ ALT Receptions (+235)

Saints are a dumpsterfire. Upset pick of the week.

Best Bet Falcons +3.5 -135
Lean: Falcons 'O' 19.5 Pts -112
Score Prediction Falcons 23 Saints 14

Anytime TD

Best Play (Saints):  Taysom Hill +320

Taysom Hill hasn't found the end zone since week 6, but since returning to the field the Saints jack of all trades has more touches inside the 5-yard line than RB Alvin Kamara. He's also coming off his highest output of the season, where he saw 7 touches against Carolina in week 10. So long as his usage continues, Hill finds himself in a great spot to pick up his 2nd touchdown of the season against a Falcons team who has the 3rd worst defensive success rate in the entire league (55.3%).

First Touchdown

Best Play (Falcons):  Kyle Pitts +1000

Kyle Pitts is our best value for a First Touchdown this week. The Falcons TE has only found the end zone once this season, but this is mainly due to Michael Penix's inaccurate passing and lasering in on only Drake London. Last season, Kyle Pitts scored 4 touchdowns, and 3 of those came from the throwing arm of Kirk Cousins, who has historically targeted his tight ends in the red zone. 

Parlay #1 (Falcons) +380  DK

Bijan Robinson Anytime TD

Bijan Robinson 120+ Rush+Rec Yards

Kyle Pitts 6+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Saints) +282  DK

Tyler Shough 1+ Interceptions

Chris Olave 5+ Receptions

Juwan Johnson 4+ Receptions

QB Jalen Hurts

It is not pretty in Philadelphia through the air right now. Jalen Hurts has now gone three straight weeks without surpassing the 200 passing yard mark. Yikes. This week, however, he gets a favourable matchup against the Dallas Cowboys defence who allow the 6th most comepletions (23.4), the 11th most pass attempts (34), the 2nd most passing yards (238.4) and a league-high 2.3 passing TDs per game. In Week 1 against this same defence, Hurts went 19/23 for 152 passing yards. The Cowboys run the 2nd most zone coverage (79.9%). More specifically, they run Cover 2 at the 3rd highest rate (23.7%) and Cover 3 at the 5th highest (38%). Against zone coverage, Hurts has struggled with the 16th lowest completion percentage (69.4%), the 14th lowest yards per attempt (7.1), but a decent 95 QBR. Against Cover 2, is a more familiar look for Hurts, who's seen the 9th most dropbacks against the coverage, but has thrived, posting an elite 83% completion percentage, the 5th highest across the league. His 7.62 yards per attempt rank in the middle of the pack, but he has an impressive 112.6 QBR. Cover 3 has been Hurts' most difficult challenge from an efficiency standpoint. He has the 8th lowest completion percentage (63%) and yards per attempt (6.56). When in doubt, Hurts isn't afraid to use his legs, and that could be useful in this matchup, as the Cowboys allow the 7th most rushing yards (23.8) to opposing QBs this season. However, the Eagles seem hesitant to use Hurts on the ground, as he's logged just 86 rushing yards over the last six games. But I expect this game to be tight, with the Eagles needing to trust Hurts with both his arm and his legs.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts o237.5 Pass & Rush Yards (-115)

RB Saquon Barkley

I feel like I've been a little harsh on Saquon Barkley this season. Has it been disappointing? Absolutely. However, his schedule is about to start opening up for the former 2,000-yard rusher, and that begins this week against the Cowboys. Dallas is giving up the 16th most rushing attempts (21.1) per game and the 12th most rushing yards (100.6) per game to opposing RBs. In terms of defensive structure, the Cowboys front runs more man/gap (44.6%) than zone concept (35%). In man/gap, Dallas allows a far higher yards per carry (5.23, 6th highest), than they do in zone concept (4.14). This sets up nicely for Barkley, as he performs best against man/gap, averaging 4.46 yards per carry compared to just 3.27 against zone concept. Barkley usage in the passing game isn't utilizied much as when Hurts is under pressure, he tends to use his legs a lot more. But he's always dangerous enough to break a long reception off, especially in this matchup, considering the Cowboys allow the third most receiving yards (44.5) despite allowing the fifth fewest receptions (5.2) per game to RBs. For that reason, and for what we expect will be a close game, Hurts may have no choice but to give Barkley opportunities through the air. Barkley had four receptions for 24 receiving yards in Week 1 against the Cowboys.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley o15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR AJ Brown

Well, AJ Brown got the uptick in usage we were expecting, but the yardage didn't necessarily follow as he finished with 49 receiving yards despite catching seven of his 12 targets. But he gets a familiar matchup against the Cowboys, where he looks to redeem himself after a one-reception, eight-yard performance in Week 1. Since then, the Cowboys have allowed the 15th most receptions (11.4) and the 7th most receiving yards (163.4) per game to opposing WRs. However, where Brown may struggle is with how much zone coverage the Cowboys run. Against zone coverage, Brown has just 20 receptions on 35 targets for 197 receiving yards with a 20.2% target share – well below his dominant 34.8 target share against man coverage. And that translates to his numbers, as he sees a dip across the board with a lower catch rate (57.1%), yards per reception (10), and yards per route run (1.08). He's particularly quiet against Cover 2, where he has one catch for seven yards, but has found more success against Cover 3, with 13 receptions for 132 receiving yards and a team-high 25.3% target share. Brown runs 90.4% of his routes on the outside. Dallas allows the 11th highest catch rate (65.1%), the second most receiving yards (133.2) and yards per reception (15.86). Having studied this team all season, it seems pretty clear how this WR operates in the different coverages. Against man-heavy teams, it's usually an AJ Brown week. But against zone-heavy teams, which it will be this week, it's typically a Devonta Smith week. So, we're not expecting a big week for Brown.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown u60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Devonta Smith

And that leads us to Devonta Smith, who, by all accounts, should be the receiver that benefits the most against zone-heavy matchups. Although, that didn't really translate in Week 1, where Smith had just three receptions for 16 receiving yards. Against zone coverage, Smith leads the Eagles with 36 receptions on 47 targets for 507 receiving yards and earns the highest target share (25.7%) on the team. And all of his efficiency metrics shine in zone with an 80% catch rate, a 13.8 yards per reception and a 2.14 yards per route run – all of which are higher than his man splits. Against Cover 2, he has been near perfect, catching 15 of his 16 targets for 209 receiving yards, also leading the team with a 34% target share. Against Cover 3, he has 14 receptions on 20 targets for 197 receiving yards on his 24.7% target share. Smith runs 57.6% of his routes from the slot. Dallas is targeted at the 4th lowest rate, but allows the highest catch rate (77%) in the NFL. It should be a heavy volume week for Smith, especially against this zone-heavy Cowboys team.

Suggested pick:

Devonta Smith o4.5 Receptions (-110)

TE Dallas Goedert

As we've covered, both Brown and Smith struggled in Week 1 against the Cowboys, but it was Dallas Goedert who had the big week through the air. He caught all seven of his targets for 44 receiving yards. He will now get a Cowboys defence that is allowing the 10th fewest receptions (4.9) and the 16th fewest receiving yards (50.7) per game. Against zone coverage, Goedert has been effective, catching 27 receptions on 36 targets for 295 yards over 172 routes, earning a 21.1 percent target share. Against Cover 2, he has 7 receptions on 9 targets for 84 yards, a 20.5 percent target share, and against Cover 3, he has 12 catches for 126 yards. His efficiency is strongest in zone, with an 80.6% catch rate, 10.7 yards per reception, and 1.60 yards per route run, though his yards after catch are slightly lower than in man coverage. Goedert lines up all over the field, running 47.1% of his routes inline last week. Against inline receivers, the Cowboys are targeted at the 5th highest rate, allow the 11th highest catch rate (82.6%) but just 8.63 yards per reception. With Goedert's impressive zone coverage numbers, as well as him showing he can beat this Cowboys defence already this season, we like Goedert to get it done yardage-wise in this matchup.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert o30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Dak Prescott

Another week, another Dak Prescott 250+ passing yard game. But was there any doubt he'd get that done against the Las Vegas Raiders? This week will be a challenge, however, as the last time he faced the Eagles, he did not have the same success, passing for just 188 yards – tied for his lowest on the season. Philadelphia allows the 11th most pass attempts per game (34), yet gives up the 8th fewest completions (19.3), the 15th fewest passing yards (223.4), and the 2nd fewest passing touchdowns (0.9). Philadelphia plays man coverage at the 13th highest rate (26.9%), but uses Cover 6 more than any team in the NFL (20.5%). Prescott has handled man coverage at a high level this season, facing the 6th most dropbacks (109) while posting the 5th highest completion percentage (63.6%), the 5th most passing yards (74.2), the 10th highest yards per attempt (7.49), and the 12th highest QBR (108.2). Against Cover 6, Prescott has faced the 6th most dropbacks against the coverage (44), completing (70.7%) of his passes, the 4th lowest yards per attempt (4.56), and a modest QBR of 80. The Eagles haven't been great at containing mobile QBs, allowing the 9th most rushing yards (23.4) per game, but Prescott does most of his work with his arm, not his legs. What we've noticed after last week was that no matter how close they were to the goal line, the Cowboys continuously threw the ball in the red zone. If that's how they're going to approach their scoring offence, then we would be foolish not to follow.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott o1.5 Passing TDs

RB Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams continues to be an important factor in this Cowboys offensive attack. Last time Javonte and the Cowboys faced off against the Eagles, Javonte had himself a week, finding the end zone twice with 54 receiving yards on 15 carries. That same Eagles defence that allows the 16th most rush attempts per game (21.1) and the 12th most rushing yards (100.6). Philadelphia leans toward man/gap concepts at 43.8%, compared to 37.4% zone, and that split matters because Williams’ production has been far stronger against man/gap this season. He’s averaging an impressive 5.77 yards per carry on those concepts, easily outpacing his 4.29 yards per carry against zone. The Eagles themselves allow 4.11 yards per carry to man/gap runs and 3.92 yards per carry to zone – the numbers match up nicely for Javonte on the ground. But as we've touched on above, it hasn't been a lot of work through the air for Javonte. He has one catch in five of the last six weeks, amounting to just 19 receiving yards over that span. The Eagles are a pretty good matchup, yardage-wise, allowing the 4th most receiving yards (43.6) to RBs, but we're choosing to believe in the recent trends rather than the matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams u7.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb is looking for some personal revenge this week against the Eagles after dropping two crucial passes in Week 1, which ultimately cost his team the game. To be fair, Lamb still had a fantastic outing, catching seven of his 13 targets for 110 receiving yards, but you know that stings against their bitter rivals. You know that's something he wants to redeem himself for, especially in front of the home fans. Philadelphia allows the 16th most receptions (11.3) and the 13th most receiving yards (147.8) per game. Lamb has been at his most dangerous against man coverage this season, where he’s earned a dominant 28.9% target share and produced 15 receptions for 185 yards on just 62 routes. Philadelphia doesn’t run man at an extreme rate, but their most utilized zone coverage, Cover 6, Lamb is still peppered with meaningful volume. He leads the Cowboys in Cover 6 target share at 24.1%, converting that into 4 catches for 28 yards on 24 routes. Not great production, but the volume should be noted. Against man coverage, Lamb's numbers fall to a 66.7% catch rate, 13.7 yards per reception compared to zone, but his yards per route run increase to 3.32. Lamb plays 68.2% of his snaps out wide. Against outside WRs, the Eagles are targeted at the 8th highest rate, allowing the 4th highest yards per reception (15.06) but surrendering only the 2nd lowest catch rate (54.6%). However, the Cowboys oftentimes chose to lineup Lamb all over the field and get him away from those tougher matchups. I think we see Lamb get his personal revenge after what happened earlier in the season.

Suggested pick:

CeeDee Lamb o75.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

CeeDee Lamb 100+ Receiving Yards (+190)

WR George Pickens

George Pickens continues to prove that he can still command a pivotal role in this offence, even with Lamb back in action. However, in Week 1 against the Cowboys, Prescott and Pickens hadn't unlocked that connection yet, catching three of his four targets for 30 receiving yards. But things have changed now. Against man coverage, Pickens has recorded 18 receptions on 27 targets for 331 yards on 102 routes against man, with a strong 26.5% target share. He has a respectable 68% catch rate against the coverage, but averages 17.9 yards per reception, 7.6 yards after catch per reception and a 2.96 yards per route run – all numbers that are better than his zone splits. Against Cover 6, Pickens has caught just three balls on his six targets for 29 receiving yards, with a low 14.3% target share. Pickens lines up out wide, with CeeDee, on 88.8% of his routes this season. And what we want to exploit here is Pickens' ability to stretch the field with the deep ball. He has now caught a reception that went 24 yards or longer in six of the last eight weeks, and that lines up well with the 15.06 yards per reception the Eagles allow to outside WRs.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens o23.5 Longest Reception (-115)

TE Jake Ferguson

You would have imagined that with how much Lamb lines up on the outside this season, it would be Pickens that sees the biggest hit in the pass game, but it's actually been Ferguson. Over the past three weeks, Ferguson nine catches on 13 targets for just 66 receiving yards per game. Against the Eagles in Week 1, Ferguson saw high volume, catching five of his six targets, but turned that into just 23 receiving yards. The Eagles have struggled to contain that position all season, allowing the 4th most receptions (6.7) and receiving yards (68.7) per game to opposing TEs. Against man coverage, Ferguson has 15 receptions on 18 targets for 73 yards across 84 routes, accounting for a 17.6% target share. His efficiency dips in these situations, as he records lower marks in catch rate (75%), yards per reception (4.9), yards after the catch per reception (1.3), and yards per route run (0.73) when compared to his zone splits. Against Cover 6, Ferguson has been perfect, catching all six of his targets for 33 yards on 37 routes, earning a 14.3% target share. Ferguson lines up in the slot on 54.5% of his snaps. Against slot receivers, Philadelphia is targeted at the 14th highest rate but allows the second lowest catch rate at 60% and the fifth fewest yards per reception at just 8.77 from the alignment. With our prediction of Lamb being the focal point of the offence for this matchup, that is likely going to hurt Ferguson's efficiency for the fourth consecutive week.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson u4.5 Receptions (-115)

Let's go back to Week 1 this season. Both offences were buzzing in the first two quarters, nearly clearing the over in the first half. However, after a weather delay, both teams came out flat and the Eagles' three points were the lone score in the second half. Now in a dome, there shouldn't be anything holding them back from scoring in bunches. So we love the over this week, and if we love an over, let's take the points with the home Cowboys, who's season is very much on the line for this division matchup.

Best Bet: o47.5
Lean: Cowboys +3.5
Score Prediction: Eagles 27 - Cowboys 24

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Eagles): Devonta Smith TD (+175)

Smith has scored two TDs in his last four games, and has followed a trend of scoring, then not, then scoring, then not. If history is to repeat itself, then it should be another TD week for Smith, in a matchup that heavily favours his usage over Brown's. The Cowboys are allowing the most receiving TDs (1.7) per game to opposing TEs.

Best Pick: (Cowboys): Dak Prescott Anytime TD (+650)

This would be a smash spot for Javonte Williams, especially with his Week 1 performance. However, they really haven't turned to Williams inside the five last week. Maybe Prescott can rush one in for his team. Prescott has one rushing TD this season, coming in their biggest game of the season against the Green Bay Packers. This might now be the Cowboys' biggest game of the season, so maybe Dak trusts his legs and finds the end zone this week.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Eagles) Devonta Smith First TD (+1100)

We're all in on Smith scoring this week against a zone-heavy team. Why can't he be the first to find paydirt? Hurts has given Smith 55 first-reads this season (first on the team), and that only goes up to 34.2% first-read percentage against zone coverage. Smith caught the first and only TD against the Packers a few weeks back.

Best Pick: (Cowboys) CeeDee Lamb First TD (+900)

We're putting all of our eggs in Lamb's basket this week. After the Cowboys disciplined both him and Pickens by sitting them on the first drive last week, the Cowboys' game plan should involve a healthy dose of the two receivers early and often. Dallas scored on their opening drive in Week 1. Why can't it do it again?

Parlay 1: (Eagles) +310 odds on bet365

Devonta Smith TD

Devonta Smith 5+ Receptions

Parlay 2: (Cowboys) +250 odds on bet365

CeeDee Lamb 7+ Receptions

CeeDee Lamb 100+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 3: (Eagles/Cowboys Longshot) +1400 odds on bet365

Devonta Smith 6+ Receptions

Devonta Smith 70+ Receiving Yards

CeeDee Lamb 6+ Receptions

CeeDee Lamb 100+ Receiving Yards

The Rams will dominate this game from start to finish.

Best Bet Rams -6.5 -125
Lean Under 49.5 -115
Score Prediction Bucs 17 Rams 30

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