QB Jalen Hurts

Hurts and the Eagles are coming off their bye week, where they've had two weeks now to prepare against a tough Green Bay Packers defence. The Packers allow the 4th most completions (24.5) and 7th most pass attempts (36.7) per game, but hold teams to the 10th fewest passing yards (213.1) and 13th fewest passing touchdowns (1.5). The Packers rely heavily on zone concepts (76.5%, 11th most in the NFL), including Cover 2 (19.5%) and Cover 3 (32.9%). Against zone coverage, Hurts has been efficient, ranking 11th in completion percentage (71.8%), with 7.32 yards per attempt and a 97.1 QBR, though his 129.9 passing yards per game ranks just 3rd-fewest among qualified starters. His best efficiency has come against Cover 2, where he’s completed an elite 84.1% of passes for 7.82 yards per attempt and a 114.4 QBR. So this all lines up for a good Hurts game through the air. This Packers team pressures 40.2% fo the time and this Eagles offense has allowed 44.2% pressure rate. This is a spot where the Ealges are going to have to use Hurts in more RPO type run plays because if they don't it could get ugly. Last year Hurts had 6 games where he was pressured 37.1%+ pressure rate and this is what he did on the ground 

13/67
7/22
14/33
8/25
13/85
8/59

If the Eagles keep doing what they have been doing and don't mix it up in this matchup it will be LONG dau

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts ALT Rush Att
'O' 8.5 Att -105
10+ Att +126
ALT Rush Yds
40+ Rush Yds +128
50+ Rush Yds +219

RB Saquon Barkley

IT HAPPENED! It finally happened. Saquon Barkley had his breakout game, where he stuck it to his old team, rushing for 150 yards and a score on just 14 carries. This week, he gets a much different rush defence in the Packers, who allow the 10th fewest rush attempts (19.9) and 12th fewest rushing yards (79.9) per game. From a scheme standpoint, Green Bay deploys nearly an even split between zone concepts (43.6%) and man/gap (43.1%). Against zone, the Packers have held runners to 3.96 yards per carry, while allowing 4.1 yards per carry against man/gap. For Barkley, there's a critical difference on how he's rushed the ball this season. Saquon has struggled against zone concept (3.55 YPC) but thrives against man/gap (5.10 YPC), ranking 9th among starting running backs in that category. So, he should be able to have success for about half the game. However, where Barkley might excel is in the pass volume. The Packers are allowing the 5th most receptions (5.1) per game to running backs, but allow the 5th lowest receiving yards (22.5) to the position. Taking this back to Hurts, when he's unable to use his legs, he'll often look for the dump-off to Saquon as an extension of the run game. And Barkley has had steady success through the air this season, catching 24 of his 27 targets.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley o2.5 Receptions (-125)

WR AJ Brown

AJ Brown returns to action for the first time since Week 7, where he put up his best performance, catching four of his six targets for 121 receiving yards and two TDs. This week, he'll get a Packers defence that allows the 11th most receptions (12.3) per game but just the 12th fewest receiving yards (138.9). Green Bay runs zone on over 76% of dropbacks, mixing in Cover 2 (19.5%) and Cover 3 (32.9%) at top 10 rates. He’s caught 13 of 26 targets for 143 yards on 154 routes against zone coverage, translating to less-than-spectacular numbers (0.99 yards per route run, 53.8% catch rate, 10.8 yards per reception, and only 2.4 YAC per catch). Against the specific coverages, Brown hasn't really been utilized this season. He has one reception on three targets for seven receiving yards on 49 routes against Cover 2, and eight receptions on 13 targets for 94 receiving yards on 61 routes against Cover 3. He dominates in man coverage, seeing a 36.8% target share, but sees that target share drop to 17.1% against zone. It's unfortunate that Brown isn't a focal point of the Eagles' offence against zone coverage, as his alignment matchup matches up nicely for this week. Brown runs 90.5% of his routes out wide, and Green Bay has struggled at times defending outside receivers, allowing the 7th highest target rate (118), the 5th most yards per game (120.8), but the 3rd lowest yards per reception (12.38) to the position. It's been an up-and-down season for Brown as a whole, so coming off an up game, in a tough matchup, it might be time for a down week.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown u4.5 Receptions (-120)

WR DeVonta Smith

In Brown's absence, Smith stepped up as this teams number one receiver, catching six of his nine targets for 84 receiving yards. This week, against the Packers, projects much better for him than it does for Brown. With the Packers running a zone-heavy scheme, Smith has been lights-out. Against zone, Smith has caught 32 of 38 targets for 438 yards on 169 routes, a staggering 87.5% catch rate and 2.21 yards per route run — the highest efficiency of any Eagles pass catcher in that coverage type. His production spikes even further against specific coverages (Cover 2 and Cover 3) that Green Bay favours: 14 catches on 14 targets for 201 yards vs. Cover 2 and 12 catches on 15 targets for 152 yards vs. Cover 3. The only thing that dips in his numbers compared to man is his target share, going from 24.6% to 18.9%. However, that 18.9% target share leads the big three Eagles pass catchers. Smith runs 59.7% of his snaps from the slot.

The Packers rank among the league’s stingiest units against slot receivers. They are targeted at the 3rd lowest rate (63) and allow the fewest yards per reception (7.34) per game. However, without Brown last week, Smith was used on the outside on 75.9% of his routes. I know Brown is returning, but they may continue to give him more snaps on the outside opposite of Brown, which would only help his case against a zone-heavy team, which he should excel against.

Suggested pick:

DeVonta Smith o53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

DeVonta Smith 70+ Receiving Yards (+180)

TE Dallas Goedert

Goedert wasn't as heavily utilized as he usually is when one of Brown or Smith is out. He had a 100% catch rate in Week 8, but the problem is that he saw just three targets. He turned that into 28 receiving yards and two TDs. This week, it should be the opposite for Goedert going up against the Packers defence, who allow the most receptions per game (7.0) to opposing TEs. However, they limit yardage after the catch, allowing the 16th fewest receiving yards (51.3). Goedert has been effective against zone looks this sseason, catching 21 of 26 targets for 228 yards on 134 routes, with an elite 87% catch rate, 11.2 yards per reception, and 1.69 yards per route run. Against the Packers’ two preferred coverages, he’s been pretty productive, registering 7 receptions for 84 yards vs. Cover 2 and 9 receptions for 97 yards vs. Cover 3. Goedert lines up 47.9% of the time in the slot and 35.2% inline, giving the Eagles multiple opportunities to throw Goedert at them in different looks. While Green Bay allows a high 82.5% catch rate to inline receivers, they hold opponents to the 3rd fewest yards per reception (6.73) — meaning Goedert may see plenty of short-to-intermediate looks rather than chunk plays. Which, if you've been watching Goedert closly this season, has been the story of his season.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert o4.5 Receptions (+120)

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love has been solid this year even though the box scores haven’t always looked wild. Last week he threw for 273 yards but didn’t get into the end zone. The main thing to know here is this matchup isn’t about deep shots — it’s about beating Philly’s softer middle-of-field zone looks. The Eagles play a lot of Cover 3 and Cover 1 (about 52% of snaps), and Love has actually been efficient vs those coverages this season — 8.5 yards per attempt with a positive completion percentage over expectation. Where Love can really add value is with his legs. Philadelphia gives up the 3rd-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, usually because their pass rush forces QBs to escape. So don’t expect a huge TD game, but chunk plays and scrambling could be there.

Suggested Play:
'O' 10.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

RB Josh Jacobs

Jacobs is the engine near the goal line — that’s been true for basically two years straight. He has scored in 17 of his last 19 games, which is insane consistency. Even though his yards per carry hasn’t been great, Green Bay still gives him the touchdown work. Philly’s run defense is interesting — they’re strong up front early in drives, but once teams get inside the 10, they’ve been much more beatable. They also allow a decent amount of RB receiving yards because they play two-high shells on early downs that leave space for checkdowns. Jacobs should get his touches again, and he’s still the guy when they’re on the 2-yard line.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Rush TD (-150)

WR Romeo Doubs

Romeo Doubs is the guy who is starting to show real #1 receiver usage. Last week, he saw 10 targets and played almost the entire game. Philly’s secondary has been beatable on the outside, especially against physical route-runners — which is basically exactly Doubs’ profile. Against zone looks, Doubs averages almost 2 yards per route run, which is a strong number. The key here: Philadelphia gives up a ton of yards to perimeter receivers, but they usually limit deep-ball efficiency. So the expectation is more like steady volume rather than bombs downfield.

Suggested Play:
'O' 52.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Luke Musgrave

With Tucker Kraft out, Musgrave steps into a full-time role again. He’s more of a straight-line seam runner than a short-area possession guy, so targets may not be high-volume — but one or two chunk plays are absolutely in the range. Philly is actually better vs tight ends than people think, not because they cover well — but because teams often attack their corners instead. However, in red-zone and play-action situations, Musgrave should be the first read on crossers and leak routes. So we aren’t going yardage here — we’re going efficient usage.

Suggested Play:
 Anytime TD (+350)

The Packers are coming off their worst loss of the season against the Panthers and now they have to face the defending champs who are coming off a bye week. Last year the Eagles were 2-2 heading in there bye and after that they put together 10 straight wins scoring 20+ points in all 10. Hurts beat this Packers team by 5 & 12 last season. Now Center Cam Jurgens will be out which will be a huge adjustment for Hurts. Also this Packers team comes in banged up. I think this is going to be a grind it out type of game and go under. 

Best Bet No Team to score 30+ Points -155
Lean Under 45.5 -115
Score Prediction Eagles 23 Packers 20

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Packers): Luke Musgrave +350

With Tucker Kraft out, Musgrave steps into a full-time role again. He’s more of a straight-line seam runner than a short-area possession guy, so targets may not be high-volume — but one or two chunk plays are absolutely in the range. Philly is actually better vs tight ends than people think, not because they cover well — but because teams often attack their corners instead. However, in red-zone and play-action situations, Musgrave should be the first read on crossers and leak routes. So we aren’t going yardage here — we’re going efficient usage.

Best Pick: (Eagles): DeVonta Smith TD (+225)

DeVonta Smith has only scored in two of his eight games this season, but those two games were against the Los Angeles Rams and the Minnesota Vikings. What do those teams have in common with the Green Bay Packers? They all run zone coverage at a top-10 rate in the league. More specifically, they all run Cover 2 at a top-11 rate this season – one of Smith's two TDs came against Cover 2 this season. Smith has the most end zone targets (4) of all Eagles pass catchers.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Packers) Josh Jacobs +380

Jacobs has scored in 17 of his last 19 games dating back to Vegas, which is basically unheard of consistency. Green Bay also likes to start drives with heavy personnel (2 TE looks) early in games to settle the offense, and Philly tends to play pass-first in the first quarter, which leaves running lanes lighter than they look on paper. The Eagles’ front is strong overall, but they do allow inside-zone push near the goal line because their DTs shoot gaps instead of stacking and reading. That’s exactly where Jacobs’ running style works — one cut, downhill, physical finish. The Eagles have also given up the first touchdown to RBs in 4 of their last 6 games, and in primetime environments, Green Bay tends to script first drives through Jacobs to keep Jordan Love clean and avoid early 3rd-and-longs. So the game environment supports it, the red-zone control supports it, and the historical scoring rate supports it.

Best Pick: (Eagles) Dallas Goedert First TD (+1400)

Goedert has been a scoring machine this season, finding the end zone in five of his seven games, totalling seven TDs. Oddly enough, Goedert has only scored the first TD in one of those games. With how many receptions the Packers allow to opposing TEs, as well as Goedert leading the team in inside-the-20 targets this season (7), Goedert could be used early and often if the Eagles have the first opportunity to score in this match.

 Parlay #1 (Packers) +440

Romeo Doubs 'O' 53.5 Receiving Yards
Jordan Love 'O' 10.5 Rush Yards
Josh Jacobs ATD

Parlay 2: (Eagles) +400 odds on bet365

Philadelphia Eagles ML

DeVonta Smith 50+ Receiving Yards

Dallas Goedert 4+ Receptions

QB Geno Smitth

Geno Smith’s performance out of the bye was a step forward — improved timing, better decisiveness, and functioning synergy with Brock Bowers back in the lineup. However, this matchup presents a dramatically different defensive look. Denver plays man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league (40.1%), and Smith’s efficiency historically declines against press-and-match schemes. His completion percentage over expected drops by nearly 10% and his passer rating falls by more than 50 points when pressured — a significant factor since the Broncos rank fourth in pressure rate (43.2%) while rarely needing to blitz to generate it. Where the path remains viable for Smith is intermediate-breaking concepts, where Denver’s corners can be manipulated with stacked releases and motion. If Smith gets rhythm throws early — slants, crossers, and TE seams — he can stabilize protection and prevent obvious passing downs, where his play tends to deteriorate. But the Raiders will need to win on early downs for Geno to replicate last week’s performance. This matchup forces conservative play-calling to avoid turnovers, and the Broncos’ man structure has consistently limited passing TD volume. The Broncos will be without Pat Surtain and that has hurt them on deep balls. They replaced Surtain with Riley Moss who this year ranks #55/107 CB's and last year #80/117. He has played 51+ snaps the last 2 weeks in wideout receivers and last year he played 9 games when playing 51+ snaps there he was thrown at 7.66x per game and allowed a 15+ long reception in 8/9 games a 19+ in 7/9 and a 21+ in 6/9. He gets beat on the deep ball so Geno could have a couple big plays in his arsenal. It's hard to really predict how Geno will attack this defense.

Suggested Play:
PASS

RB Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty continues to operate as Las Vegas’ three-phase bell cow, with elite contact balance and second-effort production. His 9 missed tackles forced last week reflect his ability to create yardage independent of blocking — a crucial trait here against a Denver run defense that ranks top-5 in limiting yards before contact. Where Jeanty gains tactical advantage is in the pass game: the Broncos allow the 15th-most receiving yards per game to RBs (31.1) and regularly concede leverage in choice routes vs linebackers. Expect Las Vegas to lean into screen, angle, and swing concepts to counter Denver’s aggressive front. Jeanty’s role in two-minute offense and red-zone snaps remains stable, but the ground efficiency may be suppressed given Denver’s discipline in gap fits. His production is likely to come through volume and reception usage rather than breakaway rushing lanes. The matchup pushes Jeanty into a high-usage checkdown role, particularly in pressure situations.

Suggested Play:

'O' 2.5 Receptions (-125)

WR Tre Tucker

Tre Tucker’s role should expand meaningfully with Jakobi Meyers traded, making him the Raiders’ primary movement and spacing receiver. Against man-heavy defenses like Denver, Tucker’s speed-based separation and stacked releases are weapons that translate — especially on digs, posts, and over-routes. His 1.64 yards per route vs man is efficient but situational — he succeeds when routes are layered to create free access, not when forced into contested sideline catches. Denver limits outside receiver production, allowing the third-fewest yards per route run (1.59) to perimeter alignments but they will be without CB Pat Surtain which is a huge diffrence maker. So Tucker’s success can be underlooked in the wideout alignment. Without Meyers we could see motioning him inside, using bunch sets, and manufacturing leverage instead of static X-isolation routes. If the Raiders deploy him correctly, he can become the chain-moving complement needed against Denver's match coverage. His route volume and role consolidation make this a usage-based efficiency line he can surpass with 2–3 well-designed intermediate targets.

Suggested Play:
'O' 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers’ return radically reshapes the offense. His route pacing, leverage manipulation, and catch-through-contact strength immediately reintroduced middle-of-field gravity that Las Vegas had been missing. Against Denver’s heavy man structure, Bowers becomes the offense’s most reliable man-beater — particularly against inside leverage defenders. He averages 2.38 yards per route vs man, which is elite territory for a tight end, and his ability to threaten vertically off seam stems forces safeties to widen, opening grass underneath. Denver typically plays safeties tight to stay compact against crossers, meaning Bowers’ slot alignments and pivot routes can break open repeatedly. Expect him to be the first read on third downs, red zone rollouts, and transitional play-action. The scheme aligns perfectly: man coverage near the goal line means Bowers gets true isolation reps, where he wins at one of the highest rates in the league.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+180)

QB Bo Nix

It wasn't the greatest game for Box Nix and the Denver Broncos, but that was to be expected against an outstanding Houston Texans defence. This week should be much different against the Las Vegas Raiders, who allow the 11th most completions (22.8) and the 13th most attempts (33.6) per game, indicating they allow heavy volume through the air. However, they’ve been effective at preventing big plays, ranking 14th in passing yards allowed (237.1) and 10th in fewest passing touchdowns (1.4) per game. The Raiders play zone coverage on 83.6% of snaps (2nd most in the NFL), relying heavily on Cover 3 (43.4%, also 2nd most). They structure a design to force underneath throws, limiting explosive plays — two areas where Nix has struggled to find rhythm. Through the first half of the season, Nix has faced more dropbacks against zone coverage (263) than any other quarterback. He’s completed just 61.3% of his passes — the 3rd lowest rate among qualified starters — while averaging only 5.84 yards per attempt, the 2nd lowest, while his 80.4 QBR ranks 9th lowest of the same qualified QBs. Against Cover 3 specifically, Nix’s efficiency remains limited: a 63.1% completion rate, 6.6 yards per attempt, and a 76.9 QBR, all in the bottom third of the league among QBs with 20 or more dropbacks versus the coverage. Nix has been one of the most aggressive QBs at pushing the ball downfield this season, having the 10th highest aDoT (8.5) on the season. His aDoT increases against zone coverage to 8.8, but that ranks as the 3rd highest in the league. However, this matchup against a Raiders defence that does a good job of defending the deep ball might limit Nix's abilities downfield, and a less-than-inspiring day through the air.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix u32.5 Pass Attempts (-105)

RB JK Dobbins

J.K. Dobbins enters Week 9 facing a Las Vegas defence that gives up steady volume to opposing backfields but doesn’t often allow much in the way of efficiency. However, Dobbins should have plenty of opportunities as the Broncos are 9-point favourites. The Raiders allow the 10th most rush attempts per game (21.8), but the 15th fewest rushing yards (86.5) per game. The Raiders are one of the more balanced run-defending teams in the league, splitting their front alignments nearly evenly between zone concept (40.4%) and man/gap (42.2%). They allow 4.27 yards per carry against zone, compared to just 3.85 versus man/gap. That should set up perfectly for Dobbins, who’s been notably more explosive against zone this season. He’s averaging a strong 6.26 yards per carry in those situations — more than two full yards higher than his 4.25 average against man/gap fronts. Dobbins' 6.26 average is the highest among his peers with more than 10 attempts against the coverage. As a receiver, Dobbins’ outlook is less promising, catching 10 of his bleak 13 targets this season. The Raiders allow the 9th most receptions (4.8) to opposing backs per game, but those catches haven’t gone for much, as they also allow the 10th fewest receiving yards (25.5). If this game were projected to be closer, we might target RJ Harvey in the receiving game, given his recent uptick in volume. However, that's not the case, so we'll still to Dobbins — the 5th leading rusher in the league — to carry the Broncos to victory.

Suggested Pick:

JK Dobbins 70+ Rushing Yards (-115)

WR Courtland Sutton

Ugly game from Sutton last week, but against Derek Stingley, that was to be expected. He caught just one of his six targets, but took it for a 30-yard TD. This week might be easier for Sutton against the Raiders, who allow the 3rd most receptions (14) and the 5th most receiving yards (165.1) per game to WRs. Against zone coverage this year, Sutton has seen a healthy workload: 41 targets across 212 routes, resulting in 25 receptions for 361 yards. However, Sutton produced much better against man coverage this season, seeing his catch rate (60.5%), yards per reception (14.4) and yards per route run (1.56) dip when in zone compared to man. Despite all of this, Sutton is still Nix's favourite target against the alignment, seeing a 21.6% target share — the highest on the team. That connection should be particularly relevant against the Raiders’ heavy Cover 3 scheme, which they run on 43.4% of defensive snaps (second-highest rate in the NFL). He has hauled in 14 receptions on 24 targets for 168 yards on 100 routes against the coverage. Sutton runs 79.6% of his routes out wide. Las Vegas allows the 5th-highest catch rate (69.2%), the 3rd-most receiving yards per game (134.5), and the 6th-highest yards per reception (14.54) to outside receivers. Before last week, Sutton caught just one ball in two games this season. He followed that up the following week with six catches and 118 receiving yards against the Chargers and 87 receiving yards against the Giants. The Chargers run the 3rd most zone coverage, while the Giants run the most man coverage in the league. This highlights that, no matter the coverage thrown at him, Sutton typically bounces back after a disappointing week, especially in a good matchup.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton o58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Courtland Sutton 80+ Receiving Yards (+215)

WR Troy Franklin

It was an encouraging sign to see Franklin receive nine targets last week. In fact, Franklin has earned the highest target share on the Broncos over the previous three weeks (23.3% to Sutton's 18.1%). And he might make that four straight weeks in this matchup. With the Raiders running the 2nd most zone coverage, Franklin has been quietly productive in that environment, carving out a 16.6% target share against zone looks, just behind Courtland Sutton’s 17%. Through nine games, Franklin has caught 24 of 40 targets for 299 yards on 197 routes against zone coverage. In fact, his efficiency metrics in zone have been superior to Sutton’s: Franklin owns a 72.2% catch rate, 12.4 yards per reception, 5.5 yards after catch per reception, and 1.79 yards per route run. He’s been particularly effective against Cover 3, where he’s reeled in 13 receptions on 20 targets for 210 yards on 93 routes — leading the Broncos in receiving yards against that specific coverage. Franklin’s deployment out of the slot (52.5% of his snaps) should also give him advantageous matchups. The Raiders’ coverage against slot receivers has been mixed. They’re targeted at an average rate (80 total), but have allowed the second-highest catch rate (77.5%) in the league, but they do a good job limiting explosive plays (just 7.92 yards per reception, second-lowest). While Sutton might get the rare chunk to get his receiving yards, it should be Franklin who sees the higher volume, especially against a zone-heavy team, who is allowing a ton of short-area, slot production to opposing WRs.

Suggested pick:

Troy Franklin o4.5 Receptions (+125)

TE Evan Engram

Evan Engram draws a tough matchup this week against a Raiders defence that’s quietly been one of the league’s stingiest against tight ends. Las Vegas allows the fourth fewest receptions (3.8) and the ninth fewest receiving yards (45.1) per game to the position. Against zone coverage this season, he’s caught 21 of 30 targets for 157 yards on 123 routes. He’s been particularly effective against Cover 3, posting nine receptions on 12 targets for 75 yards across 50 routes. Engram’s role expands notably when facing zone looks, earning a 22.8% target share compared to just 12.5% against man coverage. Efficiency-wise, Engram averages 1.37 yards per route run in zone coverage, but his catch rate (73.1%), yards per reception (8.2), and yards after catch per reception (4.8) all dip slightly relative to man coverage. He continues to split his alignments between the slot and inline, but he runs 42.2% of his routes inline. That could pose a challenge against Las Vegas, as they’re targeted at the fourth lowest rate (17) and allow just a 64.7% catch rate to inline tight ends. With that in mind, the Raiders do allow a respectable 11.55 yards per reception (4th highest). While he was held without a catch last week, Engram logged a 15+ reception in three of the four weeks prior.

Suggested pick:

Evan Engram o14.5 Longest Reception (-125)

The Broncos will be without Pat Surtain and that has hurt them on deep balls. They replaced Surtain with Riley Moss who this year ranks #55/107 CB's and last year #80/117. He has played 51+ snaps the last 2 weeks in wideout receivers and last year he played 9 games when playing 51+ snaps there he was thrown at 7.66x per game and allowed a 15+ long reception in 8/9 games a 19+ in 7/9 and a 21+ in 6/9. He gets beat on the deep ball so Geno could have a couple big plays today. The Broncos will yet again rely on JK Dobbins on early downs and use Nix to attack downfield. I think the Broncos win this game but it won't be pretty. Give me the Raiders to cover the disrespectful 9.5 line

Best Bet: Raiders +9.5 -135
Lean Over 42.5 -112
Score Prediction Raiders 21 Broncos 24

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Raiders): Brock Bowers +180

Brock Bowers’ return radically reshapes the offense. His route pacing, leverage manipulation, and catch-through-contact strength immediately reintroduced middle-of-field gravity that Las Vegas had been missing. Against Denver’s heavy man structure, Bowers becomes the offense’s most reliable man-beater — particularly against inside leverage defenders. He averages 2.38 yards per route vs man, which is elite territory for a tight end, and his ability to threaten vertically off seam stems forces safeties to widen, opening grass underneath. Denver typically plays safeties tight to stay compact against crossers, meaning Bowers’ slot alignments and pivot routes can break open repeatedly. Expect him to be the first read on third downs, red zone rollouts, and transitional play-action. The scheme aligns perfectly: man coverage near the goal line means Bowers gets true isolation reps, where he wins at one of the highest rates in the league.

Best Pick: (Broncos): JK Dobbins TD (-120)

Dobbins has gone quiet after a hot start to the season, scoring in four of his first five weeks. He's since gone four straight without finding the end zone. What better matchup than against the Raiders, who allow the third most rushing TDs (1.13) to opposing RBs per game this season. Despite the scoring troubles, Dobbins has dominated inside the five carries, earning 70% of those touches for Denver.

First TD Scorer

Longshot (Raiders): Ashton Jeanty +650

If the Raiders find the end zone first, Ashton Jeanty is the most logical candidate to finish the opening scoring drive. Since returning from the bye, Las Vegas has shifted into a run + TE seam identity early in games, using Jeanty as the centering piece to stabilize tempo and neutralize pass rush. Jeanty played 90% of offensive snaps last week, handled every goal-line carry, and operated as the primary option in scripted early-game sequencing, where coordinators lean heavily into their most reliable run concepts.

Best Pick: (Broncos) Troy Franklin First TD (+850)

So, standing at 6'4" and 216 lbs, one would expect Sutton to be the dominant red zone target for the Broncos. However, it's actually been Franklin who has dominated the red zone and end zone usage. Franklin leads the team with 12 inside the 20 targets (doubling Sutton's six) and seven end zone targets (more than doubling Sutton's three). Don't overlook Franklin's size and ability to go up and win a jump ball in the end zone, as he is at 6'3".

Parlay #1 (Raiders) +995

Ashton Jeanty ATD

Brock Bowers ATD

Geno Smith 'U' 212.5 Pass Yards

Parlay 2: (Broncos) +350 odds on bet365

JK Dobbins TD

Courtland Sutton 50+ Receiving Yards

Troy Franklin 4+ Receptions

QB Michael Penix Jr.

Falcons starting QB Michael Penix has been all over the place this season, and this was never more evident than last Sunday @ New England when he delivered a 221-yard, 3 TD pass performance in a 24-23 road loss to the Patriots. However, what these numbers do not show is that Penix completed only 59.5% of his passes for just 6.0 YPA. In reality, it was the playmaking ability of Drake London that was behind Penix’s success in week 9. The Falcons will now travel to Berlin, Germany for a 9:30 am EST start against Indianapolis, who is coming off a 27-20 loss in Pittsburgh. So far in ’25, the Colts are allowing the 5th most pass YPG (264.0) and 12th most pass TDs per game (1.7). IND runs a steady balance of Cover-3 (26.0%), Cover-1 Man (20.1%), Cover-2 (15.7%) and Cover-4 (14.1%) for 75.9% of their overall defensive snaps. Penix has completed 62.2% (117 of 188) of his passes, while averaging 199.1 YPG with a TD to INT ratio of 3:3 against these coverages. To be completely transparent, the success of Michael Penix will be dependent upon whether or not the Colts are able to rebound from Sunday’s loss and get out in front of Atlanta early. It’s going to take a spike in Penix’s volume for him to produce good numbers in Berlin. This is due largely in part to his inability to complete deep balls downfield. In fact, Michael Penix is just 7 of 29 on passes of 20+ yards or more (24.1% CMP). This puts him ahead of only Mac Jones and Dillon Gabriel, which is not exactly good company. Herein lies the volume game we are faced with. Indianapolis gives up just 6.8 YPPA (12th fewest), but on the flip side, quarterbacks are throwing the ball an average of 38.8 times per game (2nd most) against the Colts. This is a tough one, but Penix has yet to put together two consecutive weeks of good QB play, plus I expect Jonathan Taylor to get 25-30 carries in this game. Lastly, we have a lengthy flight, time change and early start time in Berlin, Germany. I’m fading Penix here.

Suggested Bet:

Michael Penix Jr. u228.5 Pass Yards (-113)

RB Bijan Robinson

We made out well on Bijan Robinson’s receiving  props last week in Foxboro. The Falcons RB collected 8 of 10 targets for 50 yards, and it’s becoming more and more evident that Atlanta has reserved themselves (at least for this year anyway) that they are benefiting more by using him in the pass-catching game as opposed to running the football. Bijan has carried the ball only 35 times for 111 yards in the past 3 games, averaging just 3.2 YPC. But what he lacks in production, Robinson makes up for in usage. He’s been an absolute workhorse, playing 96% of the snaps on offense, which has led to him amassing a season-high 91.0% of touches out of the Atlanta backfield. Indianapolis is allowing only 3.9 YPC (9th fewest) on the ground, and given his lack of usage as runner, I simply cannot back his rushing totals. The books have also severely inflated Bijan’s receiving yards in week 10. His line was set at 36.5 last Sunday, but for week 10 in Berlin it's sitting at 45.5. That’s an increase of 9 yards! It took 8 catches for Robinson to get 46+ receiving yards @ New England, and the Pats entered that game allowing only 39.6 YPG (7th most) to pass-catching backs. Now, he’ll face IND who is giving up just 30.3 YPG (16th most). It’s for this reason why I’m shifting away from his yardage and taking advantage of his reception total. While the Colts have limited tailbacks through the air, they have been generous in the reception department, giving up the 11th most catches per game to opposing RBs (4.3).

Suggested Bet:

Bijan Robinson o4.5 Receptions (-145)
Bijan Robinson 6+ ALT Receptions (+130)
Bijan Robinson 7+ ALT Receptions (+237)

WR Drake London

Last week I said, “this is a great spot for Drake London to give us solid production with big game possibility,” but nobody expected him to go completely off. Drake was targeted 15 times, where he hauled in 9 catches for 118 yards and 3 TDs at New England. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua have been targeted more on their routes than London (31.5%). Before we go off and get too excited, I think there's a reason for serious regression this Sunday in Germany. Jaylon Jones returned to the field for the first time since week 1 and proceeded to hold DK Metcalf to 2 catches for 6 yards. Most importantly, the Colts just traded for Sauce Gardner, and he can literally shut half of the field down. He is the quintessential definition of a shutdown corner. With the NY Jets, Gardner allowed a reception just once every 21 snaps, which is the lowest rating among all NFL CBs. Drake London is both an inside and outside receiver, but his production this Sunday will be dependent on what is able to do out of the slot. Indianapolis has allowed the 14th fewest receiving YPG (100.1) and 6th fewest YPRR (1.71) to outside WR, and this is all prior to the arrival of Sauce Gardner. Despite the success Drake London has had this season, he’s been boom or bust every time he steps onto the field. The Atlanta star WR has had receiving totals of 110 (vs WAS), 158 (vs BUF) and 118 (@ NE), but he’s failed to reach more than 55 yards in each of his 4 other contests. The Colts have made it clear they aren’t screwing around when they traded for Gardner. When add in Michael Penix’s inability to connect on deep passes downfield, this is all setting up for a lot of disappointed betters who are or have already locked in Drake London (to no fault of his own), and I feel quite confident that he’s going to get brought back down to earth this Sunday in Berlin.

Suggested Bet:

Drake London u70.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

WR Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney has been an absolute disaster this year, and on top of that he’s still not playing at 100%. When discussing the Falcons #2 WR last week, I pointed out that even on his best day, he is still the 4th best option on an already shaky Atlanta offense. That was reinforced even further last Sunday when Mooney was targeted just twice the entire game. After receiving a combined 15 targets in his first two games this season, Darnell Mooney has seen just 12 since, yielding him reception totals of 1, 1, 3 and 1 over the last 4 weeks. He offers little to no value.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

TE Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts fell just 2 yards shy of reaching his receiving yards line in week 9. The Falcons TE had a great matchup coming in, but QB Michael Penix was locked in on Drake London all day long. Despite taking a backseat last Sunday, I expect Kyle Pitts to rebound in Berlin. Not only does he provide the best receiving matchup for Atlanta when they face the Colts in week 10, but with Jaylen Warren returning and the trade for Sauce Gardner, this gives Pitts added value. The 5th year tight end out of Florida will face an Indianapolis defense that is allowing 74.9 receiving YPG (3rd most in NFL) and 6.7 receptions per game (4th most) to opposing TEs. Pitts has been on the field for 92% of Atlanta's dropbacks, and he’s seen at least 7 targets in three straight games now. The one knock on Kyle Pitts is that he still lacks the ability to create yardage on his own, but with IND surrendering 8.4 YPT (8th most) to tight ends, Pitts has a ton of upside this week. So far in ’24. Chig Okonkwo (5-66 and 4-53), Albert Okwuegbunam (5-36), Trey McBride (8-76) and Oronde Gadsden II (7-164) have all carved up the Colts defense, and I can’t stress enough how much attention Drake London is going to get on Sunday. Penix also has zero rapport or confidence in Darnell Mooney, so that leaves Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts as the big targets.

Suggested Bet:

Kyle Pitts o42.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Kyle Pitts o4.5 Receptions (-129)
Kyle Pitts 6+ ALT Receptions (+150)
Kyle Pitts 7+ ALT Receptions (+270)

QB Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones enters this matchup following his worst start of the season, marked by five sacks (three fumbles and two lost) and three interceptions. Despite this recent slump, his season-long stats paint a better picture, with a 69.6% completion rate, 2,404 yards, and 14 touchdowns through the air, along with an impressive five rushing touchdowns. His advanced metrics highlight his efficiency, ranking second in yards per game (267.1) and first in 1st Read% (76.5%) among qualified quarterbacks. The Falcons' defense, while allowing multiple passing touchdowns in four of their last five games, is solid against the pass, boasting the fewest passing yards allowed per game (174.8) and the sixth-lowest completion rate (62.3%). Atlanta predominantly runs a Cover 3 zone scheme (76.8%), which is a look Jones hasn't faced a lot this season. However, he has excelled against Cover 3 when he has seen it, ranking second in the NFL with 10.5 yards per attempt. I still think this is a tougher matchup for Jones and I think this game will be competitive. When games don’t get out of hand, Jones is willing to use his legs. With a low rushing line, that’s my favorite look here.

 Suggested Picks
‘O’ 11.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor is poised for a bounce-back performance against an Atlanta defense that has struggled against the run. Despite a quieter game last week with 45 rushing yards on 14 carries, Taylor's season statistics are dominant, leading the league with 157 carries for 895 yards (5.7 YPC) and 12 rushing touchdowns. He also added work in the passing game with 27 catches for 218 yards and two receiving touchdowns. His advanced metrics are elite - ranking first in YPC (5.70) and fourth in explosive run rate (7.6%). This matchup is particularly favorable for Taylor, as the Falcons rank 30th in success rate against running back runs (53.2%), 20th in yards allowed before contact (1.43), and rank 25th in overall run defensive grading. They also allow the 13th highest yards per carry at 4.38. With the Colts likely to lean on their running game, Taylor is a nice look despite higher lines.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown + 70 Rushing Yards (-150)

WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Michael Pittman Jr. has been great for the Colts, securing at least seven catches and a 25%+ target share in his last three games, including an impressive nine catches for 115 yards last week. For the season, he boasts 52 receptions for 561 yards and six touchdowns on a 76.4% catch rate. For advanced metrics, Pittman holds a 22.1% target rate, 23.2% team yardage share, 10.79 YPR, 3.81 YAC/R, 26.0% 1st Read Rate, 126.1 passer rating when targeted, 24.3% air yardage share. However, Pittman has shown some struggles against Cover 3 looks this season, recording 1.37 yards per route run compared to 2.07 against other coverages. Given that Atlanta runs Cover 3 at the ninth-highest rate (76.8%) and their tendency for ball-control offense, the overall game tempo might be slower, potentially limiting Pittman's volume. While his target share has been high, bettors might want to exercise caution on his receiving yardage prop against a heavy Cover 3 scheme.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Josh Downs
Josh Downs has emerged as a reliable target for the Colts, with a touchdown in each of his last three games, including six catches for 57 yards last week. For the season, he has 35 receptions for 313 yards and three touchdowns. Downs operates primarily from the slot (79.3% of his snaps) and has a strong target rate (24.5%). While his playing time is limited in one or two-receiver sets, the Falcons' defense presents an interesting matchup. Atlanta has allowed the ninth-most yards per target to slot receivers (8.1), which could bode well for Downs' production. However, it's worth noting that the Falcons have yet to allow a touchdown from the slot this season. Given his recent touchdown streak and the Falcons' vulnerability to slot receivers, Downs could be worth a look, especially in the endzone. They like to take advantage of his mismatches in the redzone. Alec Pierce had a nice week against PIT, but this presents as a tougher matchup against a heavy Cover 3 defense.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Tyler Warren
Tyler Warren had a disappointing outing last week with only 26 yards on five catches despite being in a favorable matchup, likely impacted by Jones' poor performance. This week, the outlook for Warren against the Falcons is even tougher. Atlanta's defense has been exceptionally stingy against tight ends, allowing the fewest targets (3.63), receptions (2.13), and yards (22.0) per game to the position. While Warren has solid season stats with 42 catches for 518 yards and three touchdowns, his 7.5 yards after the catch per reception and 12.3 yards per reception highlight his big-play ability, which may be hard to realize in this matchup. Given the Falcons' elite defense against tight ends and Warren's recent struggles, this is not a recommended spot to back him for an over. We will look to ride with Warren again in the future, but ideally in a better matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions (-120)

The Falcons have looked good about 30% of the time this year and with the Colts coming off a loss I expect them to bounce back in a big way! They picked up Sauce Gardner and will be looking to make a statement.

Best Bet: Colts-6.5 -120
Lean: Falcons TT 'U' 23.5 Pts -155
Score Prediction Falcons 17 Colts 27

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Falcons):  Drake London  +140

While I’m fading Drake London heavily in this matchup, he still provides great value in the red zone. The Falcons WR has the 5th most targets inside the opponents 20-yard line, and he’s caught 6 of 11 red zone targets, with 5 of them for TDs. No matter how tight the coverage, London can use his 6’4”, 215 pound athletic frame to go up and get any ball.

Longshot (Colts): Daniel Jones +325
Daniel Jones runs when he needs to. They also use him on the one-yard line as the goal line back. In a game where I think passing could be difficult thanks to the matchup, don't be surprised to see Danny dimes use his legs in this one. He already has five rushing touchdowns on the season and is coming off his worst game in an otherwise amazing season.

First TD Picks

Best Play (Falcons):  Kyle Pitts  +1800

This is great value because Kyle Pitts has just one TD all season, but he draws a great matchup this weekend against Colts as outlined in his game guide write up. The Indianapolis defense has been chewed up and spit out by opposing tight ends, but with the trading for Sauce Gardner they have communicated their focus is on the wide receiver position. They are willing to give up chunks of yardage to TEs at the expense of improving their defense vs WRs. The Colts have allowed the 3rd most TDs this season to the tight end position, and there is too much value here to pass up on.

Best Bet (Colts): Jonathan Taylor +300
Chalkkkkkkk. I know, I know. 3:1 is a good number though! He's -300 to score on some books and IND love to let Taylor do the heavy lifting. As we've talked about this is a good matchup for Taylor and this run game and we should see at least one, maybe two, touchdowns from Taylor to get him elite season back on track.

Parlay #1 (Falcons):   Best Play  +410 DK

Drake London u71.5 Receiving Yards

Bijan Robinson 5+ Receptions

Kyle Pitts 5+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Falcons):   Longshot  +3200 DK

Drake London u71.5 Receiving Yards

Bijan Robinson 6+ Receptions

Kyle Pitts 60+ Receptions

Kyle Pitts Anytime TD

Parlay #3 (Colts): +185 FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor 70+ Rush Yards
Jonathan Taylor TD
Tyler Warren under 43.5 Rec Yards

Parlay #4 (Colts): +615 FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor 2+ TD's
Jonathan Taylor over 91.5 Rush Yards
Daniel Jones over 12.5 Rush Yards

QB Dillon Gabriel

Dillon Gabriel enters Week 10 in a challenging evaluation environment, with his role and efficiency under scrutiny following three straight games below baseline passing production. The Browns are expected to emphasize early-down structure and quick-game sequencing to stabilize him, but the Jets’ defensive profile complicates that approach. New York plays Cover 4 (33.3%) and Cover 2 (27.3%) on over 60% of snaps, forcing quarterbacks to win by layering intermediate throws, rather than relying on simplified high-percentage zone holes or isolated matchups. Against these coverages across 51 dropbacks this season, Gabriel has averaged just 5.80 YPA with a -.2% CPOE and a 75.2 passer rating, indicating difficulty reading post-snap rotation and triggering on rhythm throws. Structurally, the matchup is not prohibitive — the Jets allow the 7th-fewest passing yards per game (208.3) but the 8th-most passing TDs per game (1.9) due to compressed red-zone leverage and short-field defensive exposures from their offense. If Gabriel is to produce, it likely comes via RPO slants, middle-field crossers, and rollout half-field reads, not sustained vertical progression.

Suggested Play:

'U' 186.5 Pass Yards (-115)

RB Quinshon Judkins

Assuming Judkins is cleared, he returns to a matchup that rewards contact balance and cut-efficiency over true speed. Before the Jets traded Quinnen Williams, they ranked 6th-best in adjusted yards before contact (1.62) allowed and 7th-best in explosive run rate, but that interior presence has now weakened. Even so, New York still plays with two-high shells that encourage patience and lateral track discipline from opposing backs. Judkins’ profile fits: he has been most effective in wide zone with delayed backside cut reads, where he maintains leverage against scraping linebackers. The Jets have also quietly struggled with second-level run fits, allowing 108.6 rushing YPG to RBs while surrendering major chunk gains to Chase Brown and Samaje Perine in Week 8. Cleveland may lean run-heavy early to protect Gabriel from coverage rotation stress, giving Judkins a path to 15–20 touches if game state remains neutral.

Suggested Play:

'O' 83.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jeudy is in volatility territory, both from usage and matchup. The Jets run Cover 4 and Cover 2 at a 60.6% rate, which demands receivers win through route timing and leverage manipulation, areas where Jeudy’s technical polish should theoretically translate — but his actual output has lagged significantly. Across 71 routes vs these shells, he is sitting at 0.39 YPRR and 0.11 TPRR, signaling reduced progression priority and limited first-read integration. However, New York is without Sauce Gardner, meaning Jeudy will face CB2/CB3 rotational matchups, significantly lowering the required separation threshold. If Cleveland increases condensed formation usage and motions Jeudy into stack alignments, he can be schemed into space against off-coverage defenders instead of static isolation.

Suggested Play:

'O' 3.5 Receptions (+120)

TE Harold Fannin

Harold Fannin has become the structural hinge of the Browns’ passing game — not as a volume funnel, but as a progression stabilizer in middle-field spacing. Against Cover 4 / Cover 2, he has produced 1.71 YPRR and a .29 TPRR, both strong efficiency indicators for a TE operating as a primary read on short/intermediate sit routes and seam benders. New York allows the 7th-fewest TE receiving yards per game (42.6), but that stat is misleading — the Jets defense filters throws toward tight ends due to perimeter disguise and deep-safety shell tilt. With Gabriel struggling to drive throws to the boundary, Fannin projects as the highest-percentage target on 3rd-and-medium and red zone high-low plays. He should again lead the team in catchable target rate.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+325)

QB Justin Fields

Fields is expected to start this week after the Jets picked up their first win of the season against the Bengals prior to the bye. He’s averaging 155.6 passing yards per game, 6.52 YPA and a 64.1% completion rate; throwing for 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He’s also averaging 7.6 attempts for 41.1 rushing yards per game. He’ll face a Browns defense that ranks 16^th in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 6^th fewest passing yards per game (182.6). The Browns play single-high at the 2^nd highest rate (64.8%) and man coverage at the 5^th highest rate (37.2%). Fields averages 7.07 YPA and a 63% completion rate against single-high. Against man, he averages 6.34 YPA and a 62.9% completion rate. Garrett Wilson has been limited in practice in back-to-back days, the team is hopeful he will return this week. That should be a major boost for Fields and this offense. In the run game, the Browns are allowing the 3^rd fewest rushing yards per game and the fewest rushing TDs to opposing QBs. The Jets are 2-point underdogs and this game has an extremely low 37.5 O/U. Despite Wilson expected back, I’ll target Fields under longest pass.

Suggested Pick:

Under 30.5 Yards Longest Completion (-120)

RB Breece Hall

Breece Hall continues to be matchup dependent, smashing in the bullish matchups and busting in the bearish matchups.  He also hinted at wanting to be traded, but the Jets decided to keep him. He’s averaging 72.6 rushing yards per game on 4.97 YPC. He leads qualified RBs in explosive run rate at 11.1%. He’ll face a Browns defense that ranks #1 in EPA/Rush and allows the 2^nd fewest YPC (3.56). Against top 10 rush defenses, he’s finished with 21 yards (vs TB) and 59 yards (vs DEN). He’s taken advantage of the defense that are bottom 5 in rush defense, running for 81 yards against the Dolphins, 113 vs the Cowboys and 133 vs the Bengals. 69.2% of Hall’s attempts have been zone concept, where he’s averaging 5.12 YPC and a 50.6% success rate. The Browns have allowed the 10^th fewest YPC (3.84) and the 9^th lowest success rate (42.5%) against zone concepts. From a receiving perspective, Hall has run a route on 35% of dropbacks. He’s averaging 22.3 receiving yards per game, 1.68 YPRR and 24% TPRR. The Browns are allowing the fewest receiving yards per game to opposing RBs. Overall, an awful matchup for Hall.

Suggested Pick:

Under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

WR Garrett Wilson

Wilson is expected to return after missing the previous 2 games prior to the bye with a knee injury. He’s practiced as a limited participant in back-to-back days. He’s averaging 65.8 receiving yards per game, 1.92 YPRR, 26% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 45.9%. He’ll face a Browns defense that ranks 16^th in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 6^th fewest receiving yards per game (182.6). Wilson has lined up out wide on 59.7% of his routes and in the slot on 40.3%. The Browns are allowing the 13^th most YPRR (1.92) to wide + slot alignment. The Browns play single-high at the 2^nd highest rate (64.8%) and man coverage at the 5^th highest rate (37.2%). Against single-high, Wilson averages 1.59 YPRR, 23% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 34.5%. Against man coverage, Wilson sees massive splits, averaging 2.90 YPRR, 33% TPRR and 48% 1^st-read rate. This game has just a 37.5 O/U, but it’s hard to fade Wilson, even if he’s a bit rusty coming back from injury. His lines reflect this risk and I think it’s worth taking his over.

Suggested Pick:

50+ Receiving Yards (-136)

TE Mason Taylor

Through 3 weeks, the Jets rookie tight end ran a route on 71.8% of dropbacks but averaged just 14.3 receiving yards per game. He was targeted on just 12% of his routes. From week 4 onward, Taylor is averaging 39.8 receiving yards per game, 1.26 YPRR and 20% TPRR. He’ll face a Browns defense allowing the 10^th fewest receiving yards per game to TE, but the 9^th most receiving TDs. Garrett Wilson is expected back this week, which could open up more opportunities for Taylor as the defensive game plan will be all about limiting Wilson. The Browns play single-high at the 2^nd highest rate (64.8%) and man coverage at the 5^th highest rate (37.2%). Against single-high, Taylor averages 1.34 YPRR and 20% TPRR since week 4. Against man coverage, Taylor has caught just receptions for 11 yards on 31 routes.  

Suggested Pick:

Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-129)

I want nothing to do with this Jets team. I think the Browns can control the time of possession and come away with a victory on the road.

Best Bet: Browns ML -130
Lean: Browns TT'O' 17.5 -142
Score Prediction Browns 20 Jets 10

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet: (Browns) Harold Fannin +325

Harold Fannin has become the structural hinge of the Browns’ passing game — not as a volume funnel, but as a progression stabilizer in middle-field spacing. Against Cover 4 / Cover 2, he has produced 1.71 YPRR and a .29 TPRR, both strong efficiency indicators for a TE operating as a primary read on short/intermediate sit routes and seam benders. New York allows the 7th-fewest TE receiving yards per game (42.6), but that stat is misleading — the Jets defense filters throws toward tight ends due to perimeter disguise and deep-safety shell tilt. With Gabriel struggling to drive throws to the boundary, Fannin projects as the highest-percentage target on 3rd-and-medium and red zone high-low plays. He should again lead the team in catchable target rate.

Garrett Wilson (Jets) +230

Wilson expected to return after missing the previous 2 games with a knee injury. He has an insane 45.9% 1^st-read rate this season. The Jets will face a Browns defense that is #1 in EPA/Rush, so I expect them to be forced to throw to have any success. Wilson is the clear number 1 and has a TD in 4 of 6 games this season.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Browns): Jerry Jeudy +1060 

Jerry Jeudy enters this matchup with a usage profile that suggests volatility in yardage but high-leverage scoring opportunity potential, particularly now that the Jets will be without Sauce Gardner on the perimeter. With Cleveland increasingly moving toward condensed formations and stack/bunch releases to manufacture clean releases for Jeudy, the opening-drive script is where he benefits most — Cleveland has shown a 36% first-quarter pass rate targeting perimeter/slot crossers, which aligns with Jeudy’s best separation routes (deep over, pivot, whip). The Jets’ defense operates out of Cover 4 and Cover 2 on 60.6% of snaps, which naturally concedes soft space between the apex defender and boundary safety — exactly the area Jeudy attacks when he’s used as the motion or orbit man in pre-snap alignment. Without Sauce commanding match assignments, Jeudy is likely to draw non-shadow rotational corners, lowering the coverage difficulty and increasing the probability Cleveland features him early as a scripted rhythm target to settle Dillon Gabriel into the game.

Garrett Wilson (Jets) +1000

Same analysis as anytime, I don’t expect the Jets to be able to have any success on the ground against this stout Browns rush defense. The Jets are coming off their first win of the season prior to the bye. Maybe the off week will make them look coherent on offense? Probably not, but I do think Wilson will be peppered early and often and is the best bet to score 1^st for the Jets.

 Parlay #1 (Browns) +315 Negative Correlation

Jerry Jeudy 'O' 3.5 Receptions

Dillon Gabriel 'U' 186.5 Pass Yards

Parlay #2 (Jets) +467

Breece Hall Under 60.5 Rushing Yards

Garrett Wilson Over 52.5 Receiving Yards

Mason Taylor Over 26.5 Receiving Yards

QB Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence enters this matchup with some mixed results, coming off a game where he threw for 220 yards and two rushing touchdowns, but no passing touchdowns and one interception. For the season, he has completed 59.7% of his passes for 1,840 yards, nine touchdowns, and six interceptions, while adding 137 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Lawrence has shown an ability for rushing touchdowns recently, with multiple in two of his last four games. However, he has struggled significantly against zone coverage this season, which is problematic given that Houston plays zone at the second-highest rate (81.1%), primarily Cover 3 and Cover 4. In their first meeting this season, Lawrence completed only 20 of 40 passes for 222 yards (5.5 yards per attempt) with no touchdowns and an interception against this Texans defense, which is allowing the second-lowest completion rate (56.9%), second-lowest yards per pass attempt (6.1), and sixth-lowest touchdown rate (3.2%). Additionally, Lawrence has the league's highest drop rate (8.2%) and ranks 27th in inaccurate throw rate (11.9%), which makes everything worse. Given the Texans' strong zone defense and Lawrence's struggles against it, I don’t want to play overs that involve efficiency, especially with his top wideout sidelined.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 32.5 Passing Attempts (-110)
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (-150)

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
Travis Etienne Jr. has been a workhorse for the Jaguars, reaching a season-high in touches last week with 22 carries for 84 yards and five catches for 31 yards. For the season, he has 119 carries for 598 yards (5.0 YPC) and two touchdowns, along with 19 receptions for 111 yards and a receiving touchdown. Despite his volume, Etienne hasn't scored a rushing touchdown since Week 4, which coincidentally was against this Texans defense, where he carried the ball 16 times for 56 yards without a reception. This presents a tough matchup for Etienne on the ground, as Houston's defense is stout against the run, allowing the sixth-fewest yards per carry to running backs (3.8) and the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game to backfields (74.6). Etienne also hasn't been consistently involved enough in the passing game to provide an angle to attack either. Considering the challenging run defense of the Texans and the potential for the Jaguars to be trailing, this looks like a spot to fade Etienne for rushing overs.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Bhayshul Tuten
Bhayshul Tuten remains the clear backup in the Jaguars' rushing offense, despite scoring a touchdown last week on nine carries for 29 yards. His season stats show 41 carries for 159 yards (3.9 YPC) and two rushing touchdowns, along with seven receptions for 56 yards and one receiving touchdown. While he did find the end zone last week, Travis Etienne still commanded five touches inside the five-yard line, indicating Tuten's usage can be scattered and situation-dependent, often preferred in short-yardage situations. Given the Texans' strong run defense, which is allowing only 3.8 yards per carry to running backs, and Tuten's inconsistent usage as the clear backup, it's difficult to confidently back any of his props this week. His role is too flexible and limited to rely on for consistent production.

Suggested Picks
PASS

WR Parker Washington
Parker Washington is a strong candidate for an increased target share this week, particularly with Brian Thomas Jr. ruled out (ankle). He showed us a bit of a breakout last week with eight catches for 90 yards on nine targets. For the season, Washington has 25 receptions for 297 yards and one touchdown on 44 targets (56.8% catch rate). He's been targeted on 23% of his routes with a team-high 1.55 yards per route run. Other metrics include a 20.9% target share, 21.5% team yardage share, 10.67 YPR, 4.79 YAC/R, 25.2% 1st read rate, 56.3 passer rating when targeted  and 23.1% air yardage share. In their first meeting against the Texans in Week 3, Washington saw 11 targets, converting them into four catches for 34 yards. Operating from both out wide (58.3%) and the slot (41.3%), Washington is poised to be the de facto number one wide receiver in this offense while Meyers gets up to speed. Given his recent strong performance, the absence of Thomas Jr., and solid usage against this Houston defense in game one, Washington is the guy I want to back in this WR core.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Jakobi Meyers
Jakobi Meyers joins the Jaguars after being acquired from the Raiders at the trade deadline. With Brian Thomas Jr. ruled out, Meyers could step into a significant role immediately. For the season, as a Raider, he has 33 receptions for 352 yards on 49 targets (67.3% catch rate), but no touchdowns. His last game as a Raider against his new team saw him catch four passes for only 23 yards on six targets. Meyers has struggled to surpass 40 receiving yards since Week 3, btu has likely been checked out as a member of the Raiders. He primarily operates from the slot (60.6%) for his former team, and the Texans defense allows the 17th most receiving yards per game to slot receivers (69.0), the 14th highest yards per reception (10.82), and the 26th highest yards after the catch per reception (3.94). This matchup offers us little upside given the unknowns around Meyers and his new team. I’ll wait a week and see!

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE Hunter Long

Hunter Long's status is questionable for this game due to a hip/knee injury, and he did not practice on Thursday. If Long is unable to play, there are no other tight ends on the Jaguars roster worth considering. For the season, Long has 12 receptions for 85 yards and two touchdowns on 17 targets (70.5% catch rate). Last week, he caught one pass for six yards on three targets. The matchup against the Texans is unfavorable for tight ends, as Houston's defense is allowing the sixth-fewest targets (6.13), seventh-fewest receptions (4.25), and fifth-fewest receiving yards (26.8) per game to the position. Given the uncertainty of the injury and his minimal usage since Strange went down, he’s unders or pass here when lines drop.

Suggested Picks
NO LINES AVAILABLE - Fade or pass

QB Davis Mills
With C.J. Stroud out due to a concussion, Davis Mills steps in as the starting quarterback for the Texans. Mills' relief appearance last week saw him complete 17 of 30 passes for 137 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions, adding 7 rushing yards on two carries, but also taking a pair of sacks. His career statistics, spanning 40 games, show a 62.3% completion rate for 6,327 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, along with a 68.3 passer rating. A significant concern in Mills' history is leading the league in interceptions (15) during his last starting season in 2022, especially against a Jaguars defense that ranks second in the league with 11 forced interceptions this year. Jacksonville's defense hasn;t been great - they just gave up four passing touchdowns to Geno Smith last week. The Jaguars play zone at the 13th highest rate (74.6%) and utilize Cover 6 more than any other team (20.7%). Given the Texans' struggles with offensive line play, we can expect Mills to use his legs, as evidenced by his carries last week. With Mill’s track record, it feels like a great spot for him to throw a pick. I’m also expecting him to use his legs like Stroud has done all season behind a brutal O-line.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (-150)
‘O’ 5.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb is currently questionable with a foot injury, but is expected to play after being limited in practice. His season has been less productive than his usual standards (he’s just not that guy anymore), with 91 carries for 355 yards (3.9 YPC) and two touchdowns, along with 10 catches for 54 yards. His advanced metrics place him at 29th in YPC (3.90) and 36th in explosive run rate (2.2%) among qualified running backs. Last week, Chubb had 11 carries for 34 yards, and his snap count was lower than Woody Marks (26 to 34). This matchup against the Jaguars is particularly challenging for Chubb and the Texans' run game. Jacksonville's defense has been excellent at containing opposing runners, allowing the third-fewest YPC to running backs (3.6) and the sixth-fewest yards before contact per rush (0.92). Given Chubb's current injury status, recent dip in production, and the Jaguars' stout run defense, we should consider his unders.

Suggested Picks
Longest Rush ‘U’ 10.5 Yards (-120)

RB Woody Marks
Woody Marks has been a more involved player in the Texans' backfield recently, out-snapping Nick Chubb last week. For the season, Marks has 67 carries for 241 yards (3.6 YPC) and one rushing touchdown, but his real value has been in the passing game, with 13 catches on 21 targets for 165 yards and two receiving touchdowns. His advanced run metrics show a 3.60 YPC (34th) and a concerning 58.2% stuff rate (last among qualified RBs), highlighting his struggles on the ground. However, the Jaguars have shown vulnerability to backs out of the backfield, allowing the ninth-most receptions to running backs per game (4.75) and the fifth-most receiving yards (42.9). If the Texans aim to exploit this weakness, Marks could see action in the passing game. Given his struggles in the run game and the tough matchup against the Jaguars' run defense, I’m looking to back Marks in the receiving game this week.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Nico Collins
Nico Collins appeared to remain the top option with quarterback Davis Mills, which is huge. Last week, after Stroud left the game with a concussion, Collins caught 6 of 8 targets from Mills for 66 yards, with Mills targeting him on a team-high 27.5% of his throws and Collins accounting for 41.8% of the air yards. This builds on Collins' strong season performance of 33 receptions for 414 yards and three touchdowns on a 57.8% catch rate. He also had a productive outing against the Jaguars in their first meeting this season, with eight catches on 11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars' defense has also allowed other "WR1" type players to have big games against them, including Brock Bowers (12 catches for 127 yards and 3 TDs), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (8-162-1), and Ja'Marr Chase (14-165-1). Considering Collins' existing chemistry with Mills and his past success against Jacksonville, overs could be the look here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Christian Kirk
Christian Kirk returned to action last week, running routes on 70% of the dropbacks and seeing eight targets, converting them into four catches for 26 yards. For the season, he has 14 receptions on 24 targets (58.3% catch rate) for 135 yards and no touchdowns. While his production has been limited, Kirk has been targeted on 22.6% of his routes when he's on the field, outplaying Hutchinson in his first game back. His role should only continue to grow in coming weeks as he ramps up with health. Playing primarily from the slot (69.3%), Kirk gets a "revenge game" against his former team here (again). Despite his slow start to the season, his target rate on routes and increasing role could lead to more opportunities. With unknown usage and a lack of production this far, I’ll lean towards his over, but remain cautious with Mills under center.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz is in a prime position to have a productive outing against a Jaguars defense that has been extremely vulnerable to opposing tight ends. Jacksonville allows the third-most targets per game (9.25), the second-most receptions (6.88), and the second-most yards (75.0) to tight ends. Schultz had a strong game last week with six catches for 77 yards on eight targets. Four catches and 6 targets came while Mills was under center. For the season, he boasts 38 receptions for 385 yards and no touchdowns on an impressive 79.1% catch rate. He also had five catches for 39 yards in their first matchup against the Jaguars. The Jaguars have allowed several big games to tight ends, including Brock Bowers (12 catches for 127 yards and 3 TDs), Colby Parkinson (3 for 47), A.J. Barner (3 for 71), Travis Kelce (7 for 61, TD), and Jake Tonges (3 for 58, TD). Notably, Schultz ranks seventh among tight ends in receiving yards from inline alignments, and the Jaguars rank third in most receiving yards allowed to players lined up inline. All signs point to good production for Schultz in this matchup and I’m all in! 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 32.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
50+ Receiving Yards (+180)
70+ Receiving Yards (+450)

At this moment, I have little trust in either of these teams. The Texans were hard to trust with Stroud and now we get the turnover king, Davis Mills, under center. However, Lawrence really hasn't been good this season, especially against tough defenses. Lawrence hodls the second lowest completion rate among qualified QB's this season and will be without his top two targets - Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. Not to mention without his starting tigh end, Brenton Strange, and potentially the backup, Hunter Long. It comes down to the defense and I think HOU has a better one. The Jags have been living off of a crazy turnover margin that's unlikely to be sustainable. JAX took game one and I think this is a spot for HOU to even it up.

Best Bet HOU ML -105
Lean 'U' 38.5
Score Prediction Texans 20 - Jaguars 17

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Jaguars): Parker Washington +240

He's sohuld step into the number one role with BTJ ruled out this week. Washington has been good and drew a pair of redzonetargets last week. He can score in the redzone or via the deep ball and with struggles in the run game, I like scores through the air more.

Best Bet (Texans): Dalton Schultz +300
Schultz has yet to record a touchdown this season despite 3 redzone tagets. JAX has allowed the 2nd most touchdowns to tight ends this season (6), third-most targets per game (9.25), the second-most receptions (6.88), and the second-most yards (75.0). This matchup is too good not to consider Schultz here despite the production in the endzone thus far.

First TD Scorer

Longshot (Jaguars): Tim Patrick +2800
If there is one thing we know about Patrick is he can score touchdowns. We saw that in both DEN and DET. His a bigger body and may be used more in the redzone without BTJ and Hunter, along with Meyers not being up to full speed. This would be a fun cash!

Best Bet (Texans): Nico Collins +700
He's the alpha in this offense and Mills showed us he's his top guy as well. Nico had a nice game against this Jags defense in the first game these two faced off and could have another solid one here. The Texans run game has really struggled and Mills will likely look for his top target in the redzone.

 Parlay #1 (Jaguars): +213
Trevor Lawrence uner 1.5 Pass TD
Parker Washington over 45.5 Rec Yards
Trevor Lawrence 175+ Passing Yards

Parlay #2 (Texans): +530
Davis Mills over 211.5 Pass Yards
Dalton Schultz 50+ Rec Yards
Travis Etienne under 55.5 Rush Yards

Parlay #3 (Both): +1079
Davis Mills 225+ Passing Yards
Dalton Schultz 70+ Rec Yards
Trevor Lawrence under 1.5 Pass TD

QB Josh Allen

Through 8 games, Josh Allen is averaging 229 passing yards per game, 8.22 YPA and a 70.4% completion rate. He’s thrown 13 TDs and 4 interceptions. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks 4^th worst in EPA/Pass, but the 10^th fewest passing yards per game (198). In 16 career games against the Dolphins, he’s averaging 269 passing yards and 2.7 passing TDs per game. Miami blitzes at the 5^th highest rate (33.7%) but are middle of the pack in pressure rate (37.5%). Allen averages 9.23 YPA and a 64.4% completion rate when blitzed. The Dolphins have run two-high at the 5^th highest rate (57.9%). When the 2 teams matched up earlier this season, the Dolphins ran two-high 53.1% of the time. Allen averages 7.91 YPA and a 73.6% completion rate against two-high. In terms of the running game, Josh Allen is averaging 34 yards and 0.9 rushing TDs per game. Miami is allowing the 14^th most rushing yards and the 3^rd most rushing TDs to QBs. The Bills are 9.5-point favorites, so they will likely get away from the passing game if the Bills get out to an early lead.

Suggested Pick:

Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-158)

RB James Cook

James Cook leads the league in rushing yards (108 YPG) and is 2^nd in YPC (5.67). He has 7 rushing TDs on the season, 4^th most amongst RBs. Cook has a 50-50 frequency split between zone and man/gap run concepts. He’s averaging 6.12 YPC and a 65.8% success rate in zone concept, compared to 5.21 YPC and a 59.2% success rate in man/gap concept. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks 9^th worst in EPA/Rush and allows the 3^rd most rushing yards per game (146). Despite allowing the 3^rd most rushing YPG, the Dolphins have surprisingly strong success rates. They have allowed the 5^th lowest success rate to zone concept (41.8%) and the 10^th lowest to man/gap (46.7%). Their issue has been allowing explosive runs, with the 2^nd highest explosive run rate in the league (8.8%) and the highest explosive yards percentage (44.4%). Cook has a respectable 5.9% explosive run rate, but it accounts for just 28% of his total rushing totals. As 9.5-point favorites, the Bills may lean on the run as this game progresses.

Suggested Pick:

Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

Anytime Touchdown (-145)

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir is averaging 49.9 receiving yards per game, 2.06 YPRR and 24% TPRR. His season-long 1^st-read rate ranks 2^nd on the team at 22.2%, but since week 5 ranks 1^st at 30.8%. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks 4^th worst in EPA/Pass, but the 10^th fewest receiving yards per game (198). Shakir has run out of the slot at a 70.1% rate. Miami forces the 5^th lowest slot target share (27%) and the 17^th most YPRR (1.70) against the alignment. Miami blitzes at the 5^th highest rate (33.7%) but are middle of the pack in pressure rate (37.5%). Shakir averages 2.71 YPRR and 21% TPRR against the blitz. The Dolphins have run two-high at the 5^th highest rate (57.9%). When the 2 teams matched up earlier this season, the Dolphins ran two-high 53.1% of the time. Shakir averages 1.38 YPRR, 23% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 21.1% against two-high. The Bills are 9.5-point favorites, so as this game progresses, Buffalo may pound the rock, taking away from the passing game.

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (-135)

WR Keon Coleman

Coleman is averaging 35.5 receiving yards per game, 1.49 YPRPR and 21% TPRR. Season-long, he’s number 1 on the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.6%. However, since week 5, he ranks 2^nd in 1^st-read rate at 21.5%. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks 4^th worst in EPA/Pass, but the 10^th fewest receiving yards per game (198). Coleman has lined up out wide on 83.8% of his routes. Miami forces the 5^th lowest wide target share (36.9%) and the 8^th fewest YPRR (1.74) against this alignment. Miami blitzes at the 5^th highest rate (33.7%) but are middle of the pack in pressure rate (37.5%). Coleman has positive splits against the blitz, averaging 1.58 YPRR and 24% TPRR. The Dolphins have run two-high at the 5^th highest rate (57.9%). When the 2 teams matched up earlier this season, the Dolphins ran two-high 53.1% of the time. Coleman averages 1.61 YPRR, 20% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 21.1% against two-high. The Bills are 9.5-point favorites, so as this game progresses, Buffalo may pound the rock, taking away from the passing game.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid averages 58.7 receiving yards per game, 3.34 YPRR and 27% TPRR. He’s been extremely productive despite running a route on just 51.9% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks 4^th worst in EPA/Pass, but the 10^th fewest receiving yards per game (198). Kincaid’s main alignment has been in the slot (54.5%), but he also lines up inline and out wide (23.6% and 22.0% rates respectively). Miami forces the 5^th lowest slot target share (27%) and the 17^th most YPRR (1.70) against the alignment.  They force the highest inline target share (19.1%) and the 3^rd most YPRR (2.46) to this alignment. Miami forces the 5^th lowest wide target share (36.9%) and the 8^th fewest YPRR (1.74) against this alignment. Miami blitzes at the 5^th highest rate (33.7%) but are middle of the pack in pressure rate (37.5%). Kincaid has positive splits against the blitz, averaging 3.53 YPRR and 29% TPRR. The Dolphins have run two-high at the 5^th highest rate (57.9%). When the 2 teams matched up earlier this season, the Dolphins ran two-high 53.1% of the time. Kincaid averages 3.02 YPRR and 28% TPRR against two-high. The Bills are 9.5-point favorites, so as this game progresses, Buffalo may pound the rock, taking away from the passing game.

Suggested Pick

Over 7.5 1Q Receiving Yards (-112)

15+ 1Q Receiving Yards (+188)

20+ 1Q Receiving Yards (+290)

25+ 1Q Receiving Yards (+430)

Anytime Touchdown (+250)

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua is averaging 198 passing yards per game, 6.56 YPA and a 67.9% completion rate. He’s thrown 15 TDs and 11 interceptions. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 4^th in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 2^nd fewest passing yards per game (169.9). The Bills have the 5^th highest pressure rate in the NFL this season (43.2%). When pressured, Tua averages just 4.32 YPA and a 49.2% completion rate. The Bills run two-high at the 7^th highest rate (56.4%). Tua averages 6.65 YPA, a 6-yard average depth of target and a 75.2% completion rate against two-high. That compares to 6.46 YPA, a 59% completion rate and 7.4-yard average depth of target against single-high. The Dolphins are 9.5-point underdogs and are likely to be forced to throw as the game progresses. He’s thrown 7 interceptions in the last 5 matchups against the Bills.

Suggested Pick:

Over 0.5 Interceptions (-140)

Over 1.5 Interceptions (+310)

RB De’Von Achane

Achane averages 67.3 rushing yards per game on 5.01 YPC. His 8.3% explosive run rate ranks 3^rd best amongst RBs with 50+ carries. 59.5% of Achane’s runs come in zone concept, where he averages 4.39 YPC and a 40.3% success rate. That compares to 5.93 YPC and a 48.8% success rate in man/gap. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 11^th worst in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 5^th most rushing yards per game. They allow the 2^nd most YPC (5.61) and the 12^th highest success rate (48.2%) against zone concept. That compares to the 13^th most YPC (4.48) and the 16^th highest success rate allowed (52.4%) against man/gap. They are also susceptible to explosive runs, as they have the 5^th highest explosive run rate allowed (7.6%) and the 4^th highest explosive yards percentage (38.4%). In the receiving game, Achane averages 30.4 receiving yards per game, 1.32 YPRR and 29% TPRR. His season long route participation rate is 65.4%. He’ll face a Bills defense that has allowed the 2^nd fewest receiving yards and 6^th fewest receptions to opposing RBs.

Suggested Pick:

Over 15.5 Yard Longest Rush (-120)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Prior to Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, Waddle averaged 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.75 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 25.6% 1^st-read rate. In the 5 games without Tyreek, Waddle is averaging 80.2 receiving yards per game, 2.99 YPRR, 27% TPRR and a 29.5% 1^st-read rate. Waddle has lined up out wide on 76.9% of his routes since Tyreek went down. The Bills are allowing the 18^th highest target share to wide alignment (40.2%) but the 6^th most YPRR (2.24). The Bills have the 5^th highest pressure rate in the NFL this season (43.2%). Without Tyreek, Waddle averages 1.36 YPRR and 13% TPRR when Tua is under pressure. The Bills run two-high at the 7^th highest rate (56.4%). Since Tyreek’s injury, Waddle averages 2.34 YPRR, 19% TPRR and a 17.3% 1^st-read rate against two-high.

Suggested Pick:

Under 65.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

WR Malik Washington

In the 4 games post Tyreek Hill’s season ending injury, Washington has run a route on 62.3% of dropbacks. He has steadily improved his performance as of late, with 30, 36 and 48 receiving yards over the last 3 weeks. He has primarily lined up in the slot (51.5% rate). The Bills are forcing the 2^nd highest target share (40.2%) but the 10^th fewest YPRR (1.59) to the slot. The Bills have the 5^th highest pressure rate in the NFL this season (43.2%). Without Tyreek, Malik averages 1.11 YPRR and 19% TPRR against pressure. That compares to 1.23 YPRR and 23% TPRR when Tua is not pressured. The Bills run two-high at the 7^th highest rate (56.4%). Since Tyreek’s injury, Malik averages 1.06 YPRR, 23% TPRR and a 17.3% 1^st-read rate against two-high. That 1^st-read rate is equivalent to Waddle’s during that time.

Suggested Pick:

Over 3.5 Receptions (-105)

5+ Receptions (+195)

TE Tanner Conner/Greg Dulcich

In week 7 with Darren Waller leaving early with an injury, Conner and Hill both ran 11 routes. Tanner caught 1 of 3 targets for 28 yards. Hill caught 1 of 2 targets for 1 yard. From weeks 1-3 prior to Waller making his debut, Conner ran a route on 53.7% of dropbacks, while Hill ran a route on just 20.4% of drop backs. In week 8, Julian Hill sat out with an injury, so Greg Dulcich received some playing time. Julian Hill looks unlikely to play this week as well. Conner had a 28.6% route participation rate, while Dulcich was at 25%. Conner caught 2 of 2 targets for 6 yards, while Dulcich did not receive a target. In week 9, Dulcich increased to a 44.2% route participation rate while Conner sat at 20.9%. Dulcich ended up having a solid outing with 5 receptions for 49 yards. Julian Hill was upgraded to a limited participant at the most recent practice, so there’s a chance he returns. If he does, there is no trust in who will produce out of these TEs. If he sits, Dulcich could be a sneaky option, but not worth a bet in my opinion, too much uncertainty.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

This Dolphins team is a disaster and expect the boos to continue here. Bills dominate on the road

Best Bet: Bills -9.5 -130
Lean: Dolphins 'U' 2.5 TD's -180
Score Prediction Bills 27 Dolphins 13

Anytime TD Scorer

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) +250

Kincaid has scored a touchdown in 4 of 7 games he’s played. He has been extremely productive averaging 3.34 YPRR and 27% TPRR. The Dolphins defense ranks 4^th worst in EPA/Pass. He scored a touchdown earlier in the season against the Dolphins and has 3 redzone targets in the past 2 H2H. Should be stat padding all around as I’m expecting a blowout, this feels like a really good price.

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) -130

Achane has scored a touchdown in 6 of 9 games this season and has 6 touchdowns in 5 matchups against the Bills. The Bills are 2^nd worst in YPC on zone concept runs, which accounts for 59.5% of Achane’s attempts. They are also 5^th worst in explosive run rate. Achane ranks 3^rd in that metric, he should be the most productive player in this matchup.

First TD Scorer

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) +1800

Same analysis as anytime touchdown, he’s also historically been most productive in the 1^st quarter. 3 of his 4 touchdowns this season have been in the 1^st quarter, 1 of those being against the Dolphins. I’m all over Kincaid early on in this game.

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) +550

If there’s a time to run the ball, it’s early in the game before the Bills run away with this. It will also keep the ball out of Allen’s hands. Achane has 2 1^st quarter TDs this season. He’s also had 2 1^st quarter TDs in 5 matchups against the Bills. Methodical 1^st drive to cash this for Achane.

Parlay #1 (Bills) +727

Dalton Kincaid 15+ 1Q Receiving Yards

Dalton Kincaid Anytime 1H TD

Parlay #2 (Dolphins) +446

Devon Achane Anytime TD

Jaylen Waddle Under 66.5 Receiving yards

Malik Washington 4+ Receptions

Parlay #3 +2932

Devon Achane Anytime TD

Jaylen Waddle Under 66.5 Receiving yards

Dalton Kincaid 15+ 1Q Receiving Yards

Dalton Kincaid Anytime 1H TD

QB Drake Maye

Drake Maye is averaging 253.9 passing yards per game, 8.96 YPA and a 74.1% completion rate. He’s thrown 17 TDs and 4 interceptions. He’ll face a Buccaneers defense that ranks 8^th worth in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 11^th most passing yards per game. They have been a pass funnel, forcing the 6^th highest pass rate over expected. The Bucs blitz at the 7^th highest rate. Maye averages 9.07 YPA and a 72% completion rate against the blitz this season. Tampa’s top 3 coverages in terms of frequency this season are Cover 3 (31.7%), Cover 4 (19.6%) and Cover 2 (16%). Maye averages 8.31 YPA and a 74.1% completion rate against these 3 coverages. Tampa Bay has allowed the 7^th most YPA (8.94) against play action. Maye has been excellent in play action, averaging 8.10 YPA, a 75.4% completion rate, and a 122.8 QB rating. In terms of the running game, Maye is averaging 6.6 attempts for 30 rushing yards per game. Tampa allows the 4^th most rushing yards to QB. We could see Maye scramble at a higher degree here as the Bucs have the 8^th highest pressure rate (42.6%)

Suggested Pick:

Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

RB Treveyon Henderson/Terrell Jennings

Last week with Rhamondre Stevenson ruled out, Henderson lead the way with 14 carries for 55 rushing yards, averaging 3.93 YPC. Jennings rushed 11 times for 35 yards, averaging 3.18 YPC. Jennings received the inside the 5 work and converted with a TD. Despite the 2 being close in carries, Henderson played 75% of the snaps. He had a 67.5% route participation rate, compared to Jennings’ 10%. Henderson caught 4 of 6 targets for 32 yards. Jennings caught his only target for 9 yards. Matchup wise, they’ll face a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the 8^th fewest rushing yards per game (92.6), the 7^th fewest YPC (3.88), and rank 6^th best in EPA/Rush. Offenses tend to attack the Bucs through the air, as they are forcing the 6^th highest pass rate over expected. From a receiving matchup, the Bucs are allowing the most receiving yards and 3^rd most receptions to RB. They blitz at the 7^th highest rate. Treveyon averages 1.73 YPRR and 27% TPRR against the blitz, compared to 1.11 YPRR and 20% TPRR when not blitzed. Love the opportunity for Treveyon to break out in the receiving game this week. Looking specifically at the 1^st quarter, The Bucs are allowing 26.5 receiving yards per game and 3.59 YPRR to opposing backfields, 15 more yards than any other team. Henderson saw 3 targets in the 1^st quarter in his first start with Rhamondre out last week.

Suggested Pick:

Henderson Over 1.5 1Q Receiving Yards (-118)

5+ 1Q Receiving Yards (+132)

10+ 1Q Receiving Yards (+270)

15+ 1Q Receiving Yards (+470)

20+ 1Q Receiving Yards (+750)

WR Stefon Diggs

Diggs has been held to 14 and 38 receiving yards the past 2 weeks against the Browns and Falcons respectively. On the season, he’s averaging 56.4 receiving yards per game, 2.44 YPRR and 25% TPRR. He has split time out wide and in the slot, 56.3% of his routes have been out wide and 43.8% from the slot. He’ll face a Bucs defense that has allowed the 9^th fewest YPRR (1.71) and the 15^th most receiving yards per game (177.8) to these 2 alignments. They have been a pass funnel, forcing the 6^th highest pass rate over expected. The Bucs blitz at the 7^th highest rate. Diggs is averaging 2.54 YPRR, 27% TPRR and a 21.3% 1^st-read rate against the blitz. Tampa’s top 3 coverages in terms of frequency this season are Cover 3 (31.7%), Cover 4 (19.6%) and Cover 2 (16%). Diggs has negative splits against these coverages, averaging 2.22 YPRR and 23% TPRR. Tampa Bay has allowed the 7^th most YPA (8.94) against play action. Diggs is 4^th on the team in receiving yards in play action but is averaging an efficient 2.68 YPRR and 36% TPRR. With Kayshon Boutte ruled out, Maye might look Diggs way more often as rookie Kyle Williams has unlikely earned his trust yet.

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (-145)

Anytime Touchdown (+170)

Hunter Henry

Henry is averaging 40.9 receiving yards per game, 1.59 YPRR, 18% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 17.5%. The Patriots #2 WR, Kayshon Boutte, has been ruled out, so Henry may receive a bit more attention from Maye. He was 2^nd on the team in targets once Boutte left the game last week. This is a middling matchup as the Buccaneers have allowed the 18^th most fantasy points to TE. They have been a pass funnel, forcing the 6^th highest pass rate over expected. The Bucs blitz at the 7^th highest rate. Against the blitz, Henry is averaging 2.45 YPRR, 24% TPRR and he leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 23%. Tampa’s top 3 coverages in terms of frequency this season are Cover 3 (31.7%), Cover 4 (19.6%) and Cover 2 (16%). Henry is averaging 1.88 YPRR, 19% TPRR and a 19.3% 1^st-read rate against these 3 coverages. Tampa Bay has allowed the 7^th most YPA (8.94) against play action. Henry is 2^nd on the Patriots in receiving yards in play action, averaging 2.49 YPRR, 22% TPRR and a 13.3% 1^st-read rate.

Suggested Pick:

Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Anytime Touchdown (+170)

QB Baker Mayfield

Tampa Bay is coming back fresh off a bye, while the Patriots are still four weeks away from getting a break and they are coming off a hard-fought win over the Falcons. From a QBR standpoint, time will tell how well Baker Mayfield performs this Sunday, but I expect him to get a ton of volume here. Baker is coming into this game well rested, and if the Patriots current defensive trends continue, he could put up some big numbers in week 10. Over the past 3 games, New England has deployed far less man coverage (13%, 13% and 25%) on their opponents pass plays. This is good news for Mayfield, who has crushed zone coverage all year. The Pats zone coverage consists primarily of Cover-3 (27.2%), Cover-2 (20.75) and Cover-4 (19.8%), where Mayfield has torn it up, completing 66.5% of his passes for 1250 yards with 6 TD to only 1 INT. Granted, the Bucs starting QB has taken a bit of a hit with the recent injuries to some elite players, but the Patriots have a dominant run defense and Mayfield should throw the ball a lot here, and I expect him to accumulate a good amount of yardage along the way.

Suggested Bet:

Baker Mayfield o34.5 Pass Attempts (-119)

Baker Mayfield o243.5 Pass Yards (-113)
Baker Mayfield 260+ ALT Pass Yards (+130)
Baker Mayfield 280+ ALT Pass Yards (+208)

RB Rachaad White

It’s looking like we are just one week away from the return of Bucky Irving, so this will most likely be the last time we see Rachaad White as the feature back for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers RB has a total rush line of 43.5 yards in this game, a number he has failed to hit in 3 of his 4 starts (41, 65, 38, 35). Now, he will have to go up against a Patriots run defense that has been a brick wall, allowing just 75.0 rush YPG (1st in NFL), and White is averaging a microscopic 3.7 YPC. Rachaad has proven to be allergic to solid running plays, and even coming off a bye, this is a very restrictive matchup for him. Only Jaylen Warren (49 yards), Chubba Hubbard (49) and James Cook (49) have eclipsed this line recently against the Patriots. On the positive side, White has been a solid option as a pass-catching back, and New England allows the most receptions per game in the league to opposing RBs (6.1) and 4th most receiving YPG (40.8). These are two really nice spots to attack here for Rachaad White, one positive and one negative. Take advantage of both of them on Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Rachaad White u10.5 Longest Rush (-120)

Rachaad White o20.5 Rec Yards (-114)

WR Emeka Egbuka

Emeka Egbuka should be fully over his midseason hamstring strain. The rookie WR earned a massive 38% of the Buccaneers' targets in his last game before the bye, setting a new season-high. Without Mike Evans on the field he has a 30% target rate and 93% route share. Now, he's facing a Patriots team that gives up the 14th most receiving YPG (112.3) and 5th most YPRR (2.24) to receivers aligned out wide. We just saw what Drake London did to New England, and we've already seen the big play ability of Egbuka on display this season. The Pats are also playing a much higher rate of zone coverage as of late, where Emeka has been impressive with a 2.45 YPR. I do think Baker will spread the ball around, but Egbuka is clearly his top receiving weapon.

Suggested Bet:

Emeka Egbuka o69.5 Rec Yards (-113)

WR Tez Johnson

While Sterling Shepard will get his fair share of work, Tez Johnson's big play ability has allowed him to step into the #2 WR role for the Bucs. in Week 8, he ran a route on 96% of Baker Mayfield's dropbacks compared to a 67% for Shepard. Johnson has recorded at least 43+ receiving yards in each of his last 4 games prior to the week 9 bye, and will now go up against a New England defense who struggles to bring pressure and that should free up Tez to have big play potential on Sunday with a fresh set of legs.

Suggested Bet:

Tez Johnson o21.5 Longest Reception (-115)

TE Cade Otton

Over his last 7 games without Mike Evans and/or Chris Godwin on the field, Cade Otton has piled up 46 catches, 449 yards and 2 receiving TDs. He's extremely durable and to the benefit of Baker Mayfield, Otton is one of the most reliable tight ends in the game, as he's been on the field for 89.7% of dropbacks this season (4th most among TEs). Otton has one of the better matchups this in week 10, as he goes up against a Patriots defense that allows 5.8 receptions per game (12th most), 63.6 receiving YPG (9th most) and 8.2 YPT (9th most) to opposing TEs. He's not a flashy player, but Otton is has great hand and is very steady on his feet.

Suggested Bet:

Cade Otton o4.5 Receptions (-108)

This is such a tough game to predict the winner but I love both offenses to have success. Give me the over 47.5 and I lean the points with the Patriots

Best Bet Over 47.5 -130
Lean Patriots +3.5 -125
Score Prediction Patriots 24 Bucs 27

Anytime TD Scorer

Stefon Diggs (Patriots) +170

Diggs has been held in check the past 2 weeks, but I’m expecting a bounce back this week. Boutte has been ruled out, so Diggs may see more looks from Maye. The Bucs are a pass funnel, forcing the 6^th highest pass rate over expected. I’m expecting receiving TDs in this matchup and I’ll go with Maye’s #1 option in a bounce back.

First TD Scorer

Stefon Diggs (Patriots) +1100

Same analysis as anytime, bounce back spot overall for Diggs, who has salvaged his production the past 2 weeks with a touchdown. Let’s make that 3 straight this week against the Chargers. He’s had a redzone target in 6 straight weeks.

Parlay #1 (Patriots) +907

Treveyon Henderson 10+ 1Q Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 Receptions

Drake Maye Over 28.5 Rushing Yards

QB Jaxson Dart

Jaxson Dart continues to profile as a dual-threat quarterback whose value is driven by designed movement, rolling pocket usage, and post-snap RPO manipulation. Against the 49ers, New York leaned into Dart’s strengths, increasing moving launch points on 37% of his dropbacks, which allowed him to avoid static pressure and sustain drives despite limited explosive weapons. The Bears present a very different challenge — they run Cover 3 (28.1%) and Cover 2 (24.1%) on over half of defensive snaps, giving Dart predictable middle-of-the-field triangle reads rather than heavy pattern-match complexity. Dart has shown clear efficiency against these shells, averaging 7.86 YPA, +5.6% CPOE, and meaningful QB run involvement at 7/70 rushing across his usage against them. Chicago is also allowing the most passing TDs per game (2.5), and their post-snap safety rotation has been particularly exploitable inside the high red zone (13–25 yard line), where Dart has been aggressive attacking seam/slot option spacing. With New York likely leaning on tempo to prevent Chicago from rotating coverages situationally, Dart should have consistent opportunities to exploit leverage throws and use his legs when second reaction windows break open.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Passing TDs (+140)

RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Tyrone Tracy remains the primary space/backfield hybrid (and even more so now with no Cam Skattebo) but New York’s shift toward a split rotation changes his projection here. Against San Francisco, Tracy led the backfield in route share (46%), confirming his role is still passing-down and motion-based alignment, especially in empty or 3x1 looks. However, Tracy’s efficiency has suffered — generating just 2.08 yards after contact per attempt and a 10% missed tackle rate, which are both bottom-third among backs with 50+ carries. The Bears’ run defense has quietly tightened, ranking first in lowest yards after contact allowed and eighth-lowest missed tackle rate since Week 5. What they do allow is receiving production to running backs when forced into zone drop depth. This directly aligns with Tracy’s route-tree: angle, flare arrow, and quick-read swing spacing. Expect Tracy to be used less as a primary rusher and more as the matchup-based checkdown and motion edge manipulator.

Suggested Play:

'O' 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

Wan’Dale Robinson has become the structural centerpiece of the passing offense, functioning as the reliable outlet on spacing, choice, and pivot concepts. He has seen 33% of team targets in recent games, and his alignment in the slot (82%+) makes him the primary conflict player against Chicago’s match-zone nickel defenders, who have allowed the third-most yards per route to slot receivers (2.13) since Week 5. Robinson does not need vertical separation to win — his advantage comes from understanding leverage and converting short throws into chain-moving gains. With Chicago frequently using spot-drop zone depth, Robinson becomes the natural answer for Dart when second reads are squeezed. Expect another high-volume usage day, especially on 3rd-and-medium and RPO glance tags.

Suggested Play:

'O' 5.5 Receptions (+100)

WR Darius Slayton

Darius Slayton is New York’s boundary vertical stressor, designed to stretch safeties and manipulate coverage structure more than accumulate raw reception volume. Against the Bears’ Cover 3 / Cover 2 blend, Slayton is positioned to see 1–2 deep isolation opportunities, especially on double-move or slot-bender variants off RPO action. Chicago has allowed the 10th-most YPRR (2.16) to perimeter receivers and recently surrendered multiple vertical chunk plays to Tee Higgins (7/121/2). Slayton’s recent usage spike — 21% target share and 34% air-yard share over last two games — suggests New York is intentionally re-incorporating him into the layered structure of the offense. If the Giants take a shot early, Slayton is the most likely target.

Suggested Play:

'O' 20.5 Yard Longest Reception (-115)

TE Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson continues to be New York’s primary red-zone leverage player, running 72%+ routes and owning clear priority on goal-line play-action crosser and leak designs. Chicago’s defense concedes the 7th-most receptions and 12th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends, largely due to their linebackers being forced into match-carry depth against layered route concepts. Johnson isn’t volume-driven — he is situation-driven. Dart looks to Johnson on high-leverage scoring plays because Johnson’s frame, catch radius, and shielding technique allow him to win body-position catches inside the 10. Chicago has allowed a TE touchdown in three of the last four games. This is the exact environment Johnson thrives in.

Suggested Play:

Theo Johnson Anytime TD (+280)

QB Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams is coming off his best PFF graded week of the season, but that's not that tough against this Cincinnati Bengals defence, is it? Regardless, he still went 20/34 for 280 passing yards and three TDs, and he even caught a pair of passes, one of which found the end zone. This week, he faces the Giants pass defence, which allows the 9th-most completions (23.1) on the 8th-most pass attempts (35.3) and the 10th-most passing yards allowed (246.9) per game. New York plays man coverage on a league-high 40.6% of defensive snaps, including the second-most Cover 1 looks (34.7%). Against man this season, Williams has held his own despite limited experience. He ranks 19th in completion percentage (60%) but excels in efficiency when attacking downfield, posting the 8th highest yards per attempt (8.4) and a strong 13th-ranked QBR (111.3) among qualified QBs. His performance against Cover 1 follows a similar trend: middle-of-the-pack dropback volume (47), but top-10 marks in both yards per attempt (8.6) and QBR (107.3). New York also struggles to contain mobile QBs, allowing the 7th most rushing yards (24) to the position per game. Personally, I like Caleb's chances of having another good week against this Giants defence. However, with potential snowy and windy weather projected to come to Chicago for game time, that makes us pivot to what Williams can do with his legs in this matchup. Last week against the Bengals, he ran for 55 rushing yards on five attempts.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams o18.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Caleb Williams 30+ Rushing Yards (+230)

RB D'Andre Swift / Kyle Monangai

What a mess this Bears backfield has become this week. Monangai had an outstanding week last week, and many were hoping he would get the opportunity to build off that in this matchup. However, Swift returned to practice on a limited basis on Wednesday, a full participant on Thursday, but then was back on the injury report on Friday after missing practice. So, who knows who gets the start, but we were under the impression it was Monangai, so that's who we dove into this week. The Giants are allowing the 15th fewest rushing attempts per game (20.6), but they’ve been highly inefficient against those carries, allowing the 2nd most rushing yards (121 per game). They run man/gap concepts on 46.6% of snaps and zone concepts on 32.8%, and they’ve struggled in both, giving up a league-worst 6.71 yards per carry against man/gap and the 5th-highest (4.62) against zone. That inefficiency matches directly with Monangai’s strengths: he averages 6.04 yards per carry vs. man/gap and 4.65 vs. zone. Even if Swift is to return this week, Bears Head Coach Ben Johnson said that they were going to ride the hot hand. And with how this matchup is projecting for Monangai, and him rushing for 176 yards last week, he should be the back with the hot hand.

Suggested Pick:

Kyle Monangai 50+ Rushing Yards (-150)

WR DJ Moore

Moore is starting to put together a string of nice games, catching four of six targets for over 70 receiving yards in back-to-back games. Can he keep it rolling against the Giants? New York allows the 6th most receptions allowed (13) and 4th in most receiving yards allowed (167.7) per game, which suggests volume opportunities for Moore. He sees a bit of an uptick in usage in man coverage, earning a 15.8% target share, and against man this season, he’s compiled 5 receptions on 9 targets for 66 yards across 55 routes. While his catch rate drops to 55.6% in these matchups, he makes up for it with higher yards per reception (13.6) and yards after catch (8.0), although his yards per route run (1.19) dips slightly compared to zone. His numbers against Cover 1 are underwhelming, catching 4 of 6 targets for 40 yards on 43 routes. Moore lines up out wide on 69.1% of his snaps. New York is targeted at the 3rd highest rate (124), allows the 4th highest catch rate (69.4%), but the ninth lowest yards per reception (12.55). This kind of plays well into Moore's season. His volume has been steady all year, but it's his yards that fluctuate. With his receptions line down at 3.5 for this week, against the Giants, who allow so many to opposing WRs, we like the consistency to continue. Moore has caught at least four balls in five of his eight weeks this season, with his three misses coming just one reception short.

Suggested pick:

DJ Moore o3.5 Receptions (-110)

WR Rome Odunze

Can anybody confirm that Rome Odunze was out there last week? Cause you wouldn't know it by looking at the stat sheet. Odunze had goose eggs across the board. But there's nothing like targeting a WR for a bounce-back game against the New York Giants. Odunze thrives against man coverage. This season, he’s recorded 11 receptions on 18 targets for 153 yards across 57 routes against man, showing a strong ability to win one-on-one battles. His target share jumps to 26.2% in man coverage, resulting in a higher catch rate (68.8%) and yards per route run (2.51), although his yards per reception (13.9) and yards after catch (3.3) are slightly lower than in zone. Against Cover 1, Odunze dominates the target share on his team at 37.4%, catching 10 of 16 targets for 152 yards on 44 routes, showing that he is a focal point in single-high defensive schemes.

Schematically, Odunze has lined up on the outside for most of the season, running 58.7% of his routes out wide. However, we saw that change last week, where Odunze ran 51.1% of his routes from the slot. Against slot receivers, the Giants allow a high yards per reception (11.73) but a modest catch rate (64.6%). Now, you can look at it in two ways. Odunze ran the most slot coverage, but that resulted in him not catching any of his three targets. However, that could just be one week of a new position. He should have it figured out and bounce back against an easy defence to do so against.

Suggested pick:

Rome Odunze 50+ Receiving Yards (-150)

Rome Odunze 80+ Receiving Yards (+250)

TE Colston Loveland

Did we call the Loveland break out last week or what? Loveland caught six of his seven targets for 118 receiving yards and two TDs – all of which were career-highs. It might be a bit more challenging for him this week, however. The Giants allow the 16th most receptions (5.4) and 13th most receiving yards (47.4) per game to tight ends, indicating that while there’s opportunity, the upside is limited in volume and efficiency. Loveland sees nearly half of his routes (45.9%) lined up inline. The Giants target inline receivers at a low rate (31), allowing the 9th lowest catch rate (74.2%) and the 4th lowest yards per reception (7.25). Loveland’s production against man coverage has been modest this season, with 3 receptions on 4 targets for 16 yards on 33 routes. His target share drops significantly in man coverage (9.3%) compared to zone (23.3%), resulting in lower efficiency across the board: catch rate (66.7%), yards per reception (6.5), yards after catch (2.0), and yards per route run (0.39). Against Cover 1, his output is similar, catching 3 of 4 targets for 16 yards on 26 routes, showing he’s reliable in volume but not a major yardage weapon. While we all want to back Loveland repeating his successful week, it might be difficult for him to do so this week in a tough matchup, along with Cole Kmet returning.

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland u28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Whoever wins this game I won't be shocked. It's such a tough game. I think both offenses will have success. Give me the over

Best Bet Over 46.5 -130
Lean: Bears TT 'O' 24.5 Pts -142
Score Prediction Giants 24 Bears 27

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet: (Giants) Theo Johnson +280

Theo Johnson continues to be New York’s primary red-zone leverage player, running 72%+ routes and owning clear priority on goal-line play-action crosser and leak designs. Chicago’s defense concedes the 7th-most receptions and 12th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends, largely due to their linebackers being forced into match-carry depth against layered route concepts. Johnson isn’t volume-driven — he is situation-driven. Dart looks to Johnson on high-leverage scoring plays because Johnson’s frame, catch radius, and shielding technique allow him to win body-position catches inside the 10. Chicago has allowed a TE touchdown in three of the last four games. This is the exact environment Johnson thrives in.

Best Pick: (Bears): Rome Odunze TD (+160)

Odunze was one of the hottest TD scorers through the first month of the season, scoring five TDs through four weeks. However, he's dried up since then, having not found the end zone since Week 4. But now we're getting him off a donut performance, as well as a Giants defence that's allowed nearly a TD to opposing WRs per game this season.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Giants): Darius Slayton First TD +1500

On tape, the Giants have been using Wan'Dale Robinson to pull nickel defenders inside, which isolates Slayton one-on-one on the outside. The Bears rank 10th-worst in Yards Per Route Allowed to boundary receivers (2.16) and have repeatedly been beaten early in games by vertical shots before their coverage shells tighten. New York also tends to take an aggressive red zone shot immediately after explosive plays, and Slayton is the designed target for those “strike” calls. If the Giants score early through the air, Slayton is the most probable candidate to be on the receiving end.

Best Pick: (Bears) Kyle Monangai First TD (+600)

I hate playing into the wind narrative. However, if that is to be a factor, and the Bears march the field early, then they might just trust their bigger back to rush it in at the goal line to get points on the board instead of testing the ball through the air. The Giants allow 1.22 TDs per game to opposing RBs this season.

Parlay #1 (Giants) +520

Jaxson Dart 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs

Tyrone Tracy Jr. 'O' 16.5 Receiving Yards

Darius Slayton 'O' 20.5 Longest Reception

Parlay 2: (Bears) +360 odds on bet365

Kyle Monangai 40+ Rushing Yards

DJ Moore 3+ Receptions

Rome Odunze 50+ Receiving Yards

QB Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson returned from injury and immediately re-established Baltimore’s offensive identity — explosive efficiency layered on top of structured QB movement. He posted 204 passing yards on only 23 attempts (8.9 YPA) with 4 TDs, reminding opponents that overplaying the run opens high-leverage shot plays behind rotating safeties. Minnesota, under Brian Flores, plays the highest rate of two-high shells in the league (69.7%) combined with the league’s highest blitz rate (44.4%), which forces QBs into rapid post-snap decisions. Jackson has excelled against this structure: 7.69 YPA, +10.4% CPOE, and 6/64 rushing against two-high looks. The Vikings also continue to surrender multi-TD passing performances in four straight games, including Herbert’s 227/3 passing + 62 rushing. Baltimore’s motion and bunch spacing specifically stress two-high safety rules, and Lamar’s willingness to attack the intermediate seams puts Minnesota’s linebackers into conflict all game.

Suggested Play:
'O' 2.5 Passing TDs (+180)

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry produced 119 rushing yards on 19 carries (6.3 YPC) in Week 9, generating 118 yards after contact, one of the highest single-game totals in the league this season. Baltimore leaned Henry into zone-counter/mid-zone looks, allowing him to build momentum before hitting interior defenders. Minnesota allows only 1.85 adjusted yards before contact, meaning opposing RBs frequently are contacted early — but they also allow 102.9 rushing YPG, meaning backs who break tackles can accumulate chunk runs. Henry ranks among the league leaders in forced missed tackles and post-contact yardage, and Minnesota’s safeties play deeper due to two-high structure, which removes a critical run-support defender near the line. Baltimore is also one of the league’s most game-script-stable rushing environments when leading, which increases Henry’s second-half volume.

Suggested Play:
'O' 78.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers continues to function as Lamar’s primary progression entry and spacing adjuster. Minnesota’s defense is the rare unit that both blitzes heavily and drops into two-high behind it, forcing offenses to win with hot routes, coverage beaters, and quick recognition reads. Flowers thrives in these environments — against blitz, he averages 3.29 Yards Per Route Run, one of the top marks in the league. Minnesota allows the most Yards Per Route Run to outside receivers (2.87) and has struggled to squeeze deep over routes, which are a core component of Baltimore’s passing design for Flowers. He has recorded 5+ receptions in 7 of 8 games, and his role is not dependent on game script — Baltimore manufactures touches for him through motion, pivots, and crossers.

Suggested Play:
'O' 5.5 Receptions (-115)

TE Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews played only 50% of snaps in Lamar’s return but remained the primary red-zone and compressed-field target, converting both TDs inside tight spacing. Minnesota’s two-high system forces offenses to work the middle of the field with benders, hooks, and choice-seam concepts, which are core Andrews specialties. The Vikings allow 55.9 receiving YPG to tight ends and just surrendered 6/97/1 to Sam LaPorta on nearly identical route concepts to what Baltimore deploys. When defenses blitz, Andrews is Lamar’s first read — accounting for .23 Targets Per Route against two-high-and-blitz combinations, one of his highest situational usage markers.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+155)

QB JJ McCarthy

JJ McCarthy impressed me last week. I didn't think he had it in him, but he walked into Ford Field and stole a Divisional win for his team. Now, it wasn't the greatest game through the air (14/25 for 143 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT), but the standings don't show the stat lines. This week, he gets the Baltimore Ravens, who're allowing plenty of volume through the air, ranking third in completions allowed (24.8) and sixth in both pass attempts (36.8) and passing yards (259.8) per game. Baltimore plays man on 37.5% of defensive snaps (4th most in the NFL), leaning heavily on Cover 1 (30.9%). That’ll test McCarthy’s processing and timing, especially since the Ravens also allow the sixth-fewest QB rushing yards (13.1 per game), eliminating the easy scramble outlets that have bailed him out so far. Against man coverage, McCarthy has the 10th-highest completion rate (63.3%), 4th-most passing yards per game (83.7), and 8th-best yards per attempt (8.37) but the 6th-lowest in QBR (83.5) in those situations. Against Cover 1, he has an 8.09 yards per attempt and 59.3 passing yards per game, completing just 59.1% of passes with the 9th-lowest QBR among QBs with 15+ dropbacks against the coverage. Although this Baltimore defence has allowed big games to opposing QBs, they're getting healthier, and McCarthy has never even sniffed his passing yards line. Until I see it, I can't recommend it.

Suggested pick:

JJ McCarthy u209.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Aaron Jones / Jordan Mason

I think last week taught us how we should view this backfield. Mason outsnapped Jones 59.3% to 42.4%; however, that was only because Jones had to leave the game with an AC joint sprain. And he was cooking before he left. He had 78 rushing yards on just nine attempts before the injury. He carries a questionable tag coming into this week, but the belief is that he will suit up, so we will move forward as if he is this team's starter. The Ravens allow the 11th most rush attempts (21.6) and 12th most rushing yards (100) per game. Baltimore’s front leans on zone concepts 42.3% of the time, one of the highest rates in the league, and that’s where its run defence thrives. The Ravens allow just 3.37 yards per carry vs. zone (3rd fewest in the NFL), compared to 5.71 yards per carry vs. man/gap (3rd most). That's music to Jones' ears, as he’s averaging 5.13 yards per carry vs. man/gap, significantly higher than his 3.88 vs. zone. Meanwhile, Mason shows a similar pattern, averaging 4.79 yards per carry vs. man/gap and 3.78 vs. zone. Another aspect in Jones' game where he can take advantage of the Ravens is through the air. Baltimore has surrendered the 7th most receptions (5) and 7th most receiving yards (38.3) per game to running backs. Before his injury, Jones caught both of his targets for 20 receiving yards. Jones is the clear back to target because of his dual-threat ability. Let's just hope he laces up the cleats this week.

Suggested Pick:

Aaron Jones o63.5 Rush & Receiving Yards (-110)

Aaron Jones o2.5 Receptions (-120)

WR Justin Jefferson

While the Vikings still got the win last week and that's really all that Justin Jefferson cares about, he takes a significant hit to his production. He saw a healthy number of targets last week (9), but only turned that into six receptions for 47 receiving yards. This week, he gets the Ravens, who allow the 3rd most receptions (13.9) and the 7th most receiving yards (160.4) per game. Jefferson’s production against man coverage has been a bit inconsistent this year. He’s earned the highest target share on the Vikings (31.7%) against man, but that heavy usage hasn’t always translated into elite efficiency — posting 14 receptions on 26 targets for 163 yards across 94 routes. Against Cover 1, Jefferson has recorded 10 catches on 20 targets for 109 yards on just 66 routes. Statistically, Jefferson’s efficiency dips notably against man coverage. He’s seen a lower catch rate (45.8%), yards per reception (11.8), yards after catch per reception (1.8), and yards per route run (1.4) compared to his production against zone. Still, volume can often outweigh efficiency, and few players command a higher share of their team than Jefferson. He lines up out wide on 73.9% of his routes. Baltimore’s corners on the perimeter are targeted at the 11th highest rate (112), allowing a 67% catch rate (10th highest) but keeping explosive plays limited with the 10th lowest yards per reception (12.63). As I mentioned, Jefferson is always going to be heavily targeted. And I think they're going to have to use him a lot more this week in a game that might be more difficult than the defensive numbers show for Baltimore.

Suggested pick:

Justin Jefferson o5.5 Receptions (-140)

WR Jordan Addison

If you thought McCarthy was bad for Jefferson, it might be even worse for Jordan Addison. He saw just four targets, catching two of those balls for 48 receiving yards. Maybe it will get better this week against a man-heavy Ravens defence? But maybe not. Against man coverage this season, Addison has earned a 14% target share, converting those looks into 6 receptions on 8 targets for 85 yards across 63 routes. While that may not be elite volume, the efficiency is impressive — he’s producing 16 yards per reception and a 1.29 yards per route run. Most notably, Addison has been effective against Cover 1. In that look, he’s caught 5 of 6 targets for 80 yards on just 42 routes. Addison’s efficiency splits tell a clear story: while he sees fewer targets than Jefferson, his higher catch rate (71.4%), yards per reception (16), and yards per route run (1.29) in man coverage make him one of the Vikings’ more dangerous perimeter threats against single coverage with his burning speed. Like Jefferson, Addison also spends more of his time lined up out wide (73.8%). As we've covered, Addison won't necessarily be heavily used. However, when he does get used, he can turn it into a big play, and I think they may need to use him in that regard for this matchup.

Suggested pick:

Jordan Addison o20.5 Longest Reception (-110)

TE TJ Hockenson

It was yet another down week for TJ Hockenson in what has been a disappointing season for the TE. He caught two of his three targets for just 11 receiving yards, but managed to find the end zone. This week, he gets the Ravens defence, which allows the 11th most receptions (5.9) and 10th most receiving yards (61.1) per game to opposing TEs. Against man coverage, Hockenson has earned just a 9.8% target share, converting that into 6 receptions on 8 targets for 35 yards across 82 routes. He’s been efficient when targeted, posting a strong 85.7% catch rate, but all of his other metrics are better against zone coverage. He has just a 5.2 yards per reception, 3.3 yards after catch per reception, and 0.40 yards per route run against man coverage. Against Cover 1, which Baltimore deploys on roughly 31% of snaps, Hockenson has caught 5 catches for 31 yards on 6 targets over 60 routes. He lines up inline on 44.9% of his snaps. The Ravens have allowed the 14th-highest catch rate (82.1%) and 10th-highest yards per reception (10.35) to inline receivers, despite ranking among the 10 lowest in target rate (28) to that alignment. With all that in mind, as well as that he's just not a go-to target for McCarthy at this point in his career, we should expect more of the same for Hockenson this week.

Suggested pick:

TJ Hockenson u3.5 Receptions (-155)

Ravens have to win games NOW. Give me the Ravens in a dominate statement road win

Best Bet: Ravens TT 'O' 24.5 Pts -148
Lean: Ravens -4.5 -110
Score Prediction Ravens 30 Vikings 17

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet: (Ravens) Mark Andrews +155

Mark Andrews played only 50% of snaps in Lamar’s return but remained the primary red-zone and compressed-field target, converting both TDs inside tight spacing. Minnesota’s two-high system forces offenses to work the middle of the field with benders, hooks, and choice-seam concepts, which are core Andrews specialties. The Vikings allow 55.9 receiving YPG to tight ends and just surrendered 6/97/1 to Sam LaPorta on nearly identical route concepts to what Baltimore deploys. When defenses blitz, Andrews is Lamar’s first read — accounting for .23 Targets Per Route against two-high-and-blitz combinations, one of his highest situational usage markers.

Best Pick: (Vikings): Aaron Jones (+170)

Jones didn't score in his return, but he very well could have had he played the full game. The Ravens are averaging a rushing TD per game to opposing RBs, and 0.25 through the air. He hasn't had an inside the five carry this season; those have all gone to Mason. However, that could have changed last week, especially with his impressive usage compared to Mason's.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet: (Ravens) Lamar Jackson +1420

Inside the goal line area, Baltimore frequently aligns heavy personnel and tight bunch, forcing defenses to compact into the box. This creates natural QB pull lanes when backside defenders over-commit to Derrick Henry. Minnesota’s run defense has allowed QB rushing TDs in multiple games this season, and they struggle particularly with man-match coverage near the goal line, where defenders are turned away from the quarterback. Lamar has historically capitalized on these situations — designed keepers, boot action, and scramble breakouts are all in play. If Baltimore sustains an opening drive or generates turnover-backed field position early, the play sequencing strongly favors a QB-centric scoring opportunity before Henry begins to take over the mid-game volume.

Best Pick: (Vikings) Jordan Addison First TD (+1200)

As we touched on, if Addison is to get some work, it's likely to be a deep ball on limited volume, like taking a deep shot to shock the Ravens defence early. Addison has scored a TD in every second game this season, and he missed last week. So if that's to follow, then Addison should find the end zone against this week. Here's to hoping it's the first one!

 Parlay #1 (Ravens) +535

Derrick Henry 'O' 78.5 Rush Yards

Derrick Henry ATD

Mark Andrews ATD

Parlay 2: (Vikings) +300 odds on bet365

Aaron Jones 50+ Rush & Receiving Yards

Aaron Jones 3+ Receptions

Justin Jefferson 6+ Receptions

QB Tyler Shough

Alongside CLE @ NYJ, these are without a doubt the two least attractive games on the week 10 NFL schedule. With a record of 1-8, the Saints have been a complete dumpster fire all season long. Kellen Moore has somehow managed to take the limited talent he has and run it into the ground even further. In the process, New Orleans has benched QB Spencer Rattler, poorly mismanaged the workload of RB Alvin Kamara, and now they’ve traded away Rashid Shaheed leaving the cupboard virtually bare. Meanwhile, the ball has been handed to Tyler Shough to push through the remainder of the season. In his first start as an NFL quarterback, Shough went 15 of 24 for 176 yards, TD, INT. We have a very small sample size of which to lean on here, but when you combine Shough coming off the bench last week and his start in week 9, he is a brutal 1 for 12 for 6 yards (INT) when facing pressure. The one silver lining here is that Carolina ranks dead last in pressure rate at 26.6% so that should lighten things up a little bit for Shough. With that said, he will be playing his second straight road game against a Carolina defense that has allowed just one passing touchdown in their last 3 games. The Panthers allow just 7.0 yards PPA (14th fewest) and a 3.8% TD rate to opposing QBs. To be fair, it should be pointed out that CAR has had an extremely weak schedule thus far, but considering who they’re facing at QB, that’s all pretty irrelevant. Tyler Shough will go up against a Panthers defense who runs the 4th highest rate of zone coverage in the league (80.6%), and he’s 26 of 43 for 241 yards, with 0 TD and 2 INT in this scenario. Again, this is a very small sample size, but the numbers are not good. This is just a very difficult sport for Shough to be in as a rookie, and when you take away the presence of Rashid Shaheed, his off-throw target rate is figured to be a preposterously high 25% for this Sunday. It’s for this reason that his line to throw an INT is sitting at -184 right now. I just don’t see Tyler Shough getting out of Carolina without getting picked off at least once.

Suggested Bet:

Tyler Shough o0.5 Interceptions (-185)
Tyler Shough 2+ ALT Interceptions (+186)

RB Alvin Kamara

What Alvin Kamara has been subjected to under the leadership of head coach Kellen Moore is nothing short of malpractice. The Saints veteran RB has done nothing but produce in his time with New Orleans, but since the arrival of Moore, we have seen Kamara’s production wilt away to nothing. He’s not being used on the ground or as a pass-catching back. Earlier in the season we could at least hang our hat on the fact that Kamara was going to be on the field, but even that has been compromised. Over the past 2 weeks, he has played just 51% and 58% of NO offensive snaps, being relegated to timeshare with Devin Neal. If that’s not bad enough, Kamara has been merely a decoy out of the backfield, getting just 15 touches during this stretch. Last week, he saw the ball only 7 times, totaling 17 yards. Certainly, Kamara’s best days are behind him, but when you’ve been one of the most used skill players in the league, finding rhythm with this little usage is going to be difficult. This has culminated in career lows for Kamara this season in rush YPG (41.9) and receiving YPG (16.7). The Panthers give up 13th most rush YPG to opposing RBs (96.9) and the 11th fewest receiving YPG (26.3), but sadly these numbers mean next to nothing. We have simply reached the point of no return for Alvin Kamara. He looks disengaged and seems to be on the brink of checking out altogether. He’s totaled 10+ carries just once in the last 5 weeks and now finds himself in a running back by committee situation with Devin Neal. The Saints have elevated yet another RB off the practice squad that could further eat into his usage. Combine that with a negative game script for New Orleans and it looks like more of the same for Alvin Kamara this Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Under 9.5 Rush Attempts (-119)

WR Chris Olave

Chris Olave is a diamond in the rough on a pitiful New Orleans Saints team, and as bad as Spencer Rattler was, he was still one of the most consistent betting plays on the board every week. We now have the issue of Tyler Shough to deal with, along with the recent trade of Rashid Shaheed. With Rattler under center, Olave recorded at least 5+ receptions in 7 of 8 games, but in his first start with Tyler Shough he caught 3 balls on just 4 targets for 57 yards. Again, his sample size with the rookie QB is small, but on 58 routes with Shough, Chris Olave has a 17% target share. On the contrary, he maintained a 28.3% target share with Rattler. One would have to assume that we will see a spike in Olave’s numbers for week 10, especially with Shaheed no longer on the team. That said, Olave will be facing a Carolina defense that gives up just 94.4 receiving YPG (11th fewest) and 1.85 YPRR (12th fewest) to receivers aligned out wide. Knowing this, I simply have a hard time putting my faith in Olave who will be facing a ton of zone coverage this week. I just see things getting worse before they get better for Olave.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Olave u6.5 Receptions (-154)

WR Brandin Cooks/Devaughn Vele

The recent trade of Rashid Shaheed opportunities could present themselves for Brandin Cooks and Devaughn Vale, but considering we have a rookie QB in Tyler Shough who has produced 3 and 10 points in 2 games with only one start, I want to see how the results shape out for these two, then we can go forward from there.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

TE Juwan Johnson

This is just about the only spot I have any confidence in with regard to clearing the positive side of the line this Sunday for New Orleans, and that’s solely due to the fact that Carolina has been so poor at defending the TE position in ’25. The trading away of Rashid Shaheed should also aid Juwan Johnson in seeing an uptick in his target share. In addition to the likelihood of the Saints playing from behind, Johnson will face a Panthers defense who is allowing 64.7 receiving YPG (7th most) and 9.2 YPT (3rd most) to opposing TEs. New Orleans will have to throw the ball here at some point and Johnson gives rookie Tyler Shough a big target to lean on. After a big start to the season, Johnson seemingly disappeared from the fold, but over the last 3 weeks he’s posted games of 5-79-0 (@CHI), 5-53-0 (vs TB) and 3-33-1 (@ LAR). The Panthers defense employs the 3rd highest rate of Cover-3 in the NFL (40.6%), where Johnson is averaging 1.77 YPRR and .22 TPRR on 90 routes. He has an 80.0% catch rate, hauling in 16 of 20 targets for 159 yards.

Suggested Bet:

Juwan Johnson o38.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Juwan Johnson 50+ Rec Yards (+138)
Juwan Johnson 60+ Rec Yards (+211)

QB Bryce Young

In case you haven’t heard the news, it’s an exciting week for Panthers nations as Carolina enters Sunday’s matchup with the Saints (1-8) as 5.5 point favorites. Week 10 of ’25 season marks the first time the Panthers have been favored in a regular season game since Dec. 22, 2022. That’s 46 games for anyone who is counting. Dave Canales is getting the absolute most out of his team this year, and despite all the deficiencies of Bryce Young, the CAR starting QB has been quite successful in home games. At Bank of America Stadium, he is 3-0 in ’25, has a 4-game winning streak and has won 5 of his L6 overall at home. With that said, I wouldn’t get all excited about Young this week, because I look for the Panthers to control this game by using a steady running attack. These are also the types of games where Canales has not asked a lot from Bryce Young. In addition to that, only 28% of his passes have been thrown downfield for 10+ yards or more (28th in NFL). As referenced earlier, this is the first time in 46 games that Carolina has been favored to win a regular season game. They are playing a pitiful Saints team, so even if Panthers are not at their best, they should be ahead most of this game, and when that’s the case Dave Canales takes the air out of the ball. Bryce Young ranks 30th in dropbacks when playing in neutral- close games (55%) and 30th when playing with a lead (42%). In Young’s last 4 starts against New Orleans, he’s thrown for 171, 161, 137 and 153 yards.

Suggested Bet:

Bryce Young u176.5 Pass Yards (-111)

RB Rico Dowdle

Anyone who wasn’t a believer in Rico Dowdle going into last Sunday’s game @ Green Bay should no longer be doubting. Despite playing on the road at Lambeau Field and facing a defense who was limiting opposing RBs to 70.3 rush YPG on just 3.8 YPC, Rico Dowdle put on a masterclass performance. The Panthers RB carried the ball 25 times for 130 and 2 TDs to lead Carolina to the biggest upset of the week. He has a golden matchup this Sunday at home, and head coach Dave Canales won’t hesitate to let Rico carry the load again. He’s had 20+ carries three times over the last 5 weeks, including games of 23, 30 and 25.  Dowdle will face a Saints defense that allows the most backfield APG (26.2) and 6th most rush YPG (109.9) to opposing RBs. This is going to be a run heavy script for Carolina on Sunday, and in 3 starts with more than 50% of the snaps this season, Dowdle has amassed 78 carries for 519 yards and 3 TD, to go with 9 receptions for 95 yards and a TD. Canales has clearly put all his chips on the table with Rico, and he’s going to ride him like a workhorse for the remainder of the season.

Suggested Bet:

Rico Dowdle o92.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Rico Dowdle 110+ ALT Rush Yards (+182)
Rico Dowdle 120+ ALT Rush Yards (+272)

Rico Dowdle Anytime TD (-155)

WR Tetairoa McMillan

We’ve noticed a clear theme with Canales at Carolina, and that is when the Panthers are leading, they simply do not throw the ball. On paper, this appears to be a solid matchup for Tetairoa McMillan as New Orleans is giving up just over 9.0 YPT (9th most) to opposing #1 WRs. They also have major issues defending the perimeter (9.5 YPT), where McMillan lines up for roughly 85% of his snaps. In my opinion, playing his yardage, whether that be over or under, is too big of a gamble. He could easily turn a catch or two into a big play, but in the Panthers last 3 wins, McMillan has seen only 5, 5 and 6 targets. This goes straight back to what I said earlier about Canales not relying on Bryce Young for much in this game. The biggest issue here is that Tetairoa McMillan was limited in practice on Friday and is listed as questionable. I have yet to see one sports book with receiving props listed for Tetairoa as of yet, but I would be targeting his under receptions total once they drop.

Suggested Bet:

Tetairoa McMillan (props not yet available)

WR Xavier Legette

Xavier Legette’s value will be solely dependent on how much Tetairoa McMillan will play on Sunday. What we do know is the Saints run the 4th highest rate of Cover-4 in the NFL (40.5%), and against this defensive scheme, Legette has caught just 4 of 9 targets for 28 yards. There is little reason to suspect that McMillan will not be on the sideline in week 10, so I’m jumping on this line right now. In two games vs New Orleans in ’24, Legette had receiving totals of 35 and 33 yards, but this was on 7 and 6 targets respectively. Outside of a fluke game against the Jets where he saw 11 targets, Xavier has had 3, 3, 2, 3 targets in 4 of his last 5 games.

Suggested Bet:

Xavier Legette u34.5 Rec Yards

TE JaTavion Sanders

I refuse to get trapped by a Panthers TE again, no matter how good the line or matchup may be. Carolina simply does not use the position, and throwing a dart at the rare chance when they do is not wise. Sanders had a really nice matchup last week in Green Bay, yet he was still targeted only once. Ja’Tavion has seen 3 targets or less in 5 of 6 games this season. In terms of his production, he caught 11 balls for 92 yards in his first 3 games, but since returning to the lineup, Sanders has recorded only 4 receptions on 6 targets for 24 total yards in the last 3 weeks. No thank you.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

Best Bet:  Panthers -5.5  (-108)
Lean:  Under 38.5  (-112)
Score Prediction:  Panthers 23,  Saints 13

There's reason to celebrate if you're a Panthers fan, as this week marks the first time since Dec. 22, 2022 that Carolina has been favored in a regular season contest. I know a lot of people feel like this could be a trap game for the Panthers, but despite having a roster with limited talent, Dave Canales has gotten the most out of his team. Since arriving in CAR, Canales has a 61.5% success rate at home ATS (3rd best among NFL head coaches). In the meantime, it’s been a disastrous season for New Orleans. It’s a very small sample size, but the Saints are just 2-7 ATS in ’25. This all starts at the top with Kellen Moore, who looks to be in way over his head. He has the worst success rate of any NFL head coach against the spread at 22.2%. This is light years away from Kevin Stefanski of Cleveland, who ranks 31st among head coaches with a success rate of 41.8%. The Panthers will not overlook a New Orleans team who looks disengaged and has mailed it in.

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play  (Panthers):  Rico Dowdle  -155

Sunday should be the Rico Dowdle show. When he scores, he scores in bunches and New Orleans has allowed 9 TDs this season out of the backfield, 7 of which have come in the rushing game (5th most in NFL). Dowdle should see anywhere from 20-25 touches, with an outside shot of even more if this game goes the way we expect.

Best Play  (Saints):  Juwan Johnson  +370

As I discussed previously, Juwan Johnson should be one of the main beneficiaries from the trading away of Rashid Shaheed. The Saints tight end has the 2nd highest target share on the team behind Chris Olave, and I expect him to be heavily involved in the New Orleans passing game this Sunday. Carolina has allowed just 9 passing TDs in nine games this season, but 4 of those have come to the TE position.

First TD Picks

Longshot  (Panthers):  Carolina D/ST  +2000

Tyler Shough is way in above his head right now, and in 6 quarters the Saints QB has already thrown 3 INTs. It’s not at all out of the question for Carolina to force a score against him or pick one up early in the special teams game.

Longshot  (Saints):  Chris Olave  +1300

The loss of Rashid Shaheed leaves New Orleans spread pretty thin at the WR position, but from an individual standpoint, this should serve Chris Olave quite well. Tyler Shough has played just one and a half games as an NFL starter, but the Saints #1 wide receiver has been on the field for 94% of the team’s offensive snaps and has 28.5% overall target rate. Most importantly as it relates to this prop, Olave leads NO in end zone targets with 8 this season.

Parlay #1 (Saints):  Best Play  +298 DK

Tyler Shough o0.5 Interceptions

Chris Olave u6.5 Receptions

Juwan Johnson 4+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Saints):  Longshot  +1600 DK

Saints Team Total u13.5 Points

Tyler Shough 2+ Interceptions

Juwan Johnson 50+ Receiving Yards 

Parlay #1 (Panthers):  Best Play +248 FD

Carolina Panthers ML

Rico Dowdle 100+ Rush Yards

Rico Dowdle Anytime TD

Parlay #2 (Panthers):  Longshot +1900 FD

Carolina Panthers ML 

Rico Dowdle 150+ Rush Yards

Rico Dowdle 2+ TDs

QB Jacoby Brissett

We never wish ill will on anyone, but when it comes to production and betting value, Jacoby Brissett has been a breath of fresh air to the Arizone offense. In his 3 starts this season for the Cardinals he has thrown for 320 (@ IND), 279 (vs GB) and 261 (@ DAL) yards respectively. Not only has Brissett breathed life into a once stale offense, he's doing by spreading the ball around. Four different receivers had at least 3 receptions and three posted 50+ yards. As we discussed last week, the ARI running game has been extremely limited, and while they ran for 119 yards last week, it's important that we realize this came against a Dallas run defense that has allowed the 5th most rushing yards in the NFL this season. On Sunday, the Cards will face Seattle on the road, and they boast the 2nd best run defense in the entire league, giving in up only 63.1 YPG. Now, the Seahawks have also been good against the pass, but they are not elite, and Arizona will have to rely on Brissett to deliver out of the air. He has a fully healthy Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, and with the SEA coming in as a 6.5 point favorite this points to a pass heavy script, especially in the second half. In 3 starts with the Cardinals, Brissett has completed 65% of his passes, thrown for 850+ yards and has tossed 6 TDs. The only other NFL QB to do that over his first 3 starts with a new team was Kurt Warner witht he Rams in 1999. That's pretty impressive stuff and Brissett will most likely be in a position where he is going to be slinging the ball around again on Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Jacoby Brissett o231.5 Pass Yards (-113)

RB Emari Demercado/Bam Knight

There's nothing worse than hearing the dreaded 4-word, "running back by committee" expression. Be that as it may, this is the hand we've been dealt in Arizona. Emari Demercado and Bam Knight are currently in a has clearly cemented himself as the feature running back in the Cardinals offense. Last week, Demeracado out-touched Bam Knighy 15-11, and turned 14 carries into 79 yards, but this was against a Cowboys run defense that allows just under 5.0 YPC to opposing RBs. The Seahwks have stonewalled RBs all season long, plus its very difficult to play on the road in Seattle. I don't pay a lot of attention to fantasy rankings, but when your two running backs are ranked 38th and 40th that is VERY bad sign. I wouldn't touch either one of these players in the running game. There is, however, some value for Bam Knight if/when his props get posted in the receiving game. Seattle allows the 2nd most receptions per game (6.0) and the 5th most receiving YPG (45.3) to opposing RBs, and it should be pointed out that they have played just 8 games this season, so these numbers are quite poor. Be sure to monitor Knight's receiving props as it gets closer to game time. He's caught 7 of his 8 targets over the last 3 weeks, and if he gets a sweet line of 2.5 receptions I would jump all over the under with that prop.

Suggested Bet:

Bam Knight o2.5 receptions (props not available)

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Marvin Harrison Jr. recorded had a career-high 7 receptions on 10 targets on MNF for 96 yards and a TD. He will face a far more difficult matchup on Sunday, however. Seattle allows just 83.4 YPG to opposing outside wide receivers (6th fewest). That said, there is reason to be optimistic about Harrison’s overall volume going forward. Jacoby Brissett is averaging 41 dropbacks per game over his 3 starts. On the contrary, Kyler Murray has averaged 34 dropbacks per game in the last 2 years. The two have already built a strong rapport on the field and with a come from behind script likely, Harrison's reception total is the best prop to target in week 10.

Suggested Bet:

Marvin Harrison Jr. o4.5 Receptions (-107)

TE Trey McBride

Trey McBride continues to be one of the most reliable players at the tight end position. He hauled in another 5 catches for 55 yards and a TD on MNF, while being targeted 9 times throughout the game by Jacoby Brissett. McBride leads the NFL with a 35.2% target share on play-action passes, and with Brissett behind center, that rate increases to to 37.8%. He has the best matchup of any receiver this Sunday against the Seahawks, who surrender the 6th most receptions per game (6.6) to opposing TEs. This is setting up to be a big game for McBride. He has gone up against a Mike Macdonald led defense 4 times in his career, recording games of 10-95-1 (14 targets), 12-133-0 (15 targets), 7-70-0 (14 targets), and 7-52-0 (11 targets).

Suggested Bet:

Trey McBride o6.5 Receptions (-151)

Trey McBride o59.5 Receiving Yards (-137)

QB Sam Darnold
Darnold is coming off an incredible performance last week, completing 21 of 24 attempts for 330 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception. On the season, his advanced metrics are elite. he leads the league with 9.65 yards per pass attempt (YPA), boasts a 116.0 passer rating, and ranks 1st with a 9.8 aDOT, showcasing how deadly this offense is with the deep ball. He's efficient, with a 70.4% completion rate (5th) and 80.6% Adjusted Completion % (3rd), and his receivers have a low 2.8% drop rate. He's also efficient under pressure, with only a 3.9% sack rate and 2.3% turnover-worthy throw (TWT) rate. However, the matchup against Arizona is tough for Darnold's strengths. Darnold was incredible on play-action (league-leading 21 YPC on such throws) and downfield passes (67% completion rate). Yet, the Cardinals defense excels against these exact situations: they've allowed a 54% completion rate (2nd lowest) and 6 yards per attempt (4th lowest) on play-action passes. Furthermore, Arizona has allowed a 42.6% completion rate (5th lowest) on downfield throws and a mere 1% touchdown rate (lowest in the league). The Cardinals play zone at the 12th highest rate (75.0%), primarily Cover 3 and Cover 4. Despite Darnold's exceptional play of late, I’m not looking to back his overs that tie to more explosive plays. I think this ARI offense forces a shorter passing game, which sets up well for his completion prop.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 20.5 Passing Completions (-105)

RB Kenneth Walker III
On the season, Walker has 106 carries for 472 yards (4.5 YPC) and 3 TDs, along with 10 catches on 11 targets for 80 yards. Last week, he had 11 carries for 42 yards and 2 catches for 19 yards. His advanced metrics show a strong 7.5% explosive run rate (6th best among 41 RBs with 60+ attempts), showing us he still has his explosiveness. However, his 1.89 yards after contact per attempt (YACO/A) ranks 34th, and his 48.1% stuff rate ranks 27th, suggesting struggles when not hitting those big runs. The Cardinals defense offers a somewhat favorable environment for explosive runs, allowing the 8th highest explosive run rate (6.3%) and a middling 4.34 YPC (15th highest). This could create opportunities for Walker's big-play ability. When these teams played in Week 4, Walker had a strong outing with 20 touches for 110 total yards. However, it's worth noting that only 3 running backs all season have cleared 100 rushing yards against Arizona. The biggest drawback for Walker's overall upside, besides the involvement of Charbonnet, remains his minimal involvement in the passing game, with Darnold throwing to RBs on a league-low 9.0% of attempts. If you are looking to back an over, it’s likely his longest rush, which he’s cleared in 3 of his last 5.

Suggested Picks
Longest Rush ‘O’ 13.5 Yards (-110)

RB Zach Charbonnet
On the season, Charbonnet has 80 carries for 230 yards (a league-worst 2.9 YPC among 41 RBs with 60+ attempts) and 5 touchdowns, along with 7 catches on 8 targets for 57 yards. Last week, he had 8 carries for 25 yards and 1 catch for 21 yards, but no touchdowns. His advanced rushing metrics are concerning: he ranks last (41st) in YPC (2.88), 33rd in explosive run rate (2.5%), and 31st in stuff rate (50.0%). He has only two runs of 10 or more yards on 80 rushes (2.5%), the lowest rate of any back with 50+ attempts this season. His redzone usage had been his most reliable asset up until last week. Up until last week, Charbonnet had been the preferred redzone back, but in their most recent game, Kenneth Walker received a pair of carries inside the 5-yard line. If we see more of a split workload in the redzone, there aren’t many appealing over to back for Charb this week and going forward.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seattle Seahawks faces a tough test this week, despite his incredible recent streak. He currently leads the league with 58 catches on 79 targets (73.4% catch rate) for an impressive 948 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. He's on the cusp of eclipsing 1,000 receiving yards just 10 weeks into the season and is the first Seahawk to ever record four consecutive 100-yard receiving games. His advanced stats are elite: a massive 35.0% target share, an astonishing 45.2% of team receiving yards, and a near 49.0% air yardage share. He also leads the league with 4.47 yards per route run. JSN primarily lines up out wide (78.6%). However, the Cardinals defense is specifically designed to limit deep plays and efficient receiving, which directly challenges JSN's strengths. Arizona has allowed the 5th lowest yards per reception (10.23) and 8th lowest yards per route run (1.33) to receivers. The only game this season where JSN did not reach 96+ receiving yards was against these very same Cardinals in Week 4, where he had 4 catches on 5 targets for 79 yards. It is never easy to fade JSN after continuously cashing overs, but this might be the matchup to do it. With how ARI limits the deep play, looking at his under longest reception makes a lot of sense.

Suggested Picks
Longest Reception ‘U’ 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Rashid Shaheed
Rashid Shaheed was traded to the Seahawks from the Saints, which should give him a nice bump in efficiency in this offense long term. With Horton now doubtful, Shaheed may immediately step into a WR2 role. Even if Kupp returns, Shaheed plays more as an outside WR role while Kupp plays more out of the slot. With the Saints, Shaheed caught 44 of 66 targets (66.7%) for 499 yards (11.3 YPR) and 2 touchdowns. His advanced stats included a 21.0% target share and 30.3% air yardage share. He primarily lined up out wide (61.5%), which may tick up with SEA.Tthe matchup against the Cardinals is not ideal for Shaheed's skillset. Arizona's defense plays a lot of 2-high safety looks, which is designed to prevent the deep ball—a key component of Shaheed's game. Without knowing his exact snap count, target share in the new offense, or comfort level with Sam Darnold, betting on Shaheed this week is something I’ll avoid. Let’s take the wait and see approach and look to back him next week.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE A.J. Barner

Barner is questionable with a calf but practiced in a limited fashion on Thursday, but he should play. On the season, he's been remarkably efficient, catching 21 of 26 targets (80.7% catch rate) for 236 yards (11.2 YPR) and an impressive 4 touchdowns. Last week, he had 3 catches for 24 yards on 4 targets. Barner primarily aligns inline (86.3%), and his advanced metrics are solid, with 4.6 yards after the catch per reception and a 7.0 aDOT. He leads the team with 8 redzone targets (double any other pass catcher) and commands 25% of Seattle's red zone targets. He was even used as a ball carrier in a tush-push touchdown last week. The matchup against the Arizona Cardinals for tight ends is exceptionally soft. Arizona allows the 2nd most targets (9.38 per game), 5th most receptions (6.63 per game), and 6th most receiving yards (68.1 per game) to the position. This is a prime spot for Barner if he can take advantage. The only look here is over or anytime touchdown in my opinion.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-115)
‘O’ 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Best Bet
Lean
Score Prediction 

Anytime TD Scorer

First TD Scorer

Best Play (Cardinals):  Trey McBride +1000

Among all NFL QBs over the L10 years, Jacoby Brissett has targeted tight ends at the league’s 7th highest rate (29.2%), and in 3 starts this season, Brissett has thrown 4 of his 5 TD passes to the TE position, with 3 going to Trey McBride. The Cardinals TE has a great matchup this Sunday against a Seattle defense who allows 6.6 yards per catch (6th most) on 8.5 targets per game (7th most) to opposing TEs

Parlay #1 (Cardinals) +320

Jacoby Brissett 220+ Pass Yards

Trey McBride 60+ Rec Yards

Trey McBride Anytime TD

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff enters Week 10 operating one of the league’s most efficiently structured passing offenses, with Detroit continuing to emphasize play-action, compressed formations, and early-down passing to dictate defensive structure. Despite his lower raw attempt volume this season (29 or fewer attempts in 6 of 8 games), Goff holds a 7.1% touchdown rate and a 115.2 passer rating, signaling a shift from high-volume distribution to high-leverage accuracy and efficiency. Against Cover 3 and Cover 1, which Washington plays at a combined 53.7% rate, Goff has been extremely comfortable — logging 7.79 YPA, 115.8 passer rating, and a 7.2% completion percentage over expected on 134 dropbacks vs these shells. Washington’s defense invites downfield access by frequently rotating late and miscommunicating landmarks, and they are currently allowing the 3rd-most passing yards (268.6 YPG) and 5th-most passing TDs (2.1 per game). Their issues resurfaced dramatically last week, where Sam Darnold completed 14 of his first 14 passes and posted 330 yards and four touchdowns. Detroit’s offensive line matches up favorably as well, especially with Washington ranking 15th in pressure rate since Week 5, significantly below the Vikings unit that disrupted Goff. This is a bounce-back environment where Detroit can play on script and control tempo.

Suggested Play:
'O' 2.5 Passing TDs  (+135)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs’ role has become stable even in split usage, functioning as the primary passing-down and perimeter-speed component of Detroit’s backfield. While the box score was limited last week, Gibbs still led in snap share (66%) and route participation (38%), signaling Detroit continues to trust his ability in space and misdirection concepts. Washington remains one of the league’s most structurally vulnerable defenses against RBs in space, allowing the 9th-most receiving yards per game to RBs (37.0), and Gibbs has already shown the ability to exploit this defense — 14/105 rushing and 6/70 receiving in their playoff matchup last January. Washington struggles most against outside-zone and swing-screen sequencing, where linebackers are forced to tackle in space instead of attacking downhill. Detroit’s run game tendency vs Washington: use motion to stress the second level, widen pursuit, and isolate Gibbs 1-on-1, where his MTF/ATT rate ranks among the league’s elite. This matchup specifically tilts toward explosive perimeter plays, even if goal-line work skews to Montgomery.

Suggested Play:
 'O' 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery continues to serve as Detroit’s interior tempo setter, handling 55% of the carries last week and operating as the preferred goal-line and grind-down back. Washington’s defensive front allows the 10th-highest explosive run rate and the 3rd-most yards after contact per attempt, meaning backs who can absorb first contact and finish forward — Montgomery’s core trait — gain tangible edges here. The Commanders have major structural tackling issues at the second level, and with Detroit’s offensive line emphasizing gap/power and duo looks, Montgomery’s success rate is likely to remain stable throughout the game. The matchup profile suggests Detroit can sustain drives and control possession, increasing Montgomery’s likelihood of high-value red-zone touches. The floor is stable, but the matchup notably increases touchdown expectation, given Washington has allowed a rushing TD in nine straight games.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (-110)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to be Detroit’s primary progression anchor and coverage-proof mover, operating from stack, motion, and mid-field distribution roles that allow him to dictate leverage before the snap. Against the coverage structures Washington plays most — Cover 3 (28%) and Cover 1 (25.7%) — St. Brown averages 2.39 YPRR and a .28 target rate per route, elite efficiency markers for slot-dominant receivers. More importantly, Washington is allowing the MOST receiving yards per game to slot receivers (107.4 YPG) and the MOST yards per route run allowed (2.45) to slot alignments. Last week, Jaxon Smith-Njigba recorded 8/129 against this exact alignment profile, and last January, ARSB posted 8/137 receiving against Washington, winning repeatedly on choice, pivot, and deep-over leverage beaters. Detroit’s scheme naturally places ARSB in conflict-space vs zone rotation, and Washington currently lacks the CB/S overlap communication to handle these route structures at volume.

Suggested Play:
'O' 7.5 Receptions (-105)

TE Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta enters this matchup as Detroit’s primary seam-stretcher and middle-of-field zone manipulator. Washington allows 60.2 receiving yards per game to tight ends (11th-most) and is 5th-worst in TDs allowed to TEs, especially against teams that run play-action glance, under-seam layering, and counter boot, all staples of Detroit’s passing structure. Against the Commanders’ frequent Cover 3 and Cover 1, LaPorta averages 1.52 YPRR and a .15 TPRR rate — stable efficiency with defined red-zone involvement. Washington’s linebackers struggle to maintain depth and match crossers, resulting in large void zones between linebacker depth and safety rotation landmarks — the exact spaces LaPorta specializes in accessing. He already scored 6/51/1 in this matchup last January, and Detroit is currently deploying him at an 83% route rate, near every-down passing utility.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+130)

QB Marcus Mariota

We'll start this out wishing Jayden Daniels all the best after that gross injury on Sunday Night Football. But with him out, it presents another opportunity for Marcus Mariota to lead the Commanders. However, that's going to be a tough task against this Lions defence, who allow the 15th fewest completions (20.5) and 14th fewest passing yards (221.6) per game, but the 6th most passing TDs (2.0) per game. Detroit runs man coverage at the third highest rate (39.1%) in the NFL, with heavy usage of Cover 1 (30.9%) and Cover 2 man (5.9%). Mariota has struggled against man this season, facing just 24 dropbacks and posting a 52.4% completion rate, 4.9 yards per attempt, and a QBR of 66.2, ranking near the bottom among starting QBs. Against Cover 1, he’s faced 17 dropbacks, completing 53.3% of passes for only 5.0 yards per attempt and a QBR of 67.4. Against Cover 2 man, he’s seen just two dropbacks, completing a single pass for negative yardage. Given Detroit’s heavy man scheme and Mariota’s low efficiency in those situations, this matchup projects as a tough passing environment. Expect short completions and limited deep success, resulting in a bad game from Mariota.

Suggested pick:

Marcus Mariota u202.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Is Croskey-Merritt the best bad RB in the league? Like, his efficiency on the season is great. But since he took over as the lead back, he really hasn't. Over the last month, he has rushed for 157 yards on 51 carries. That's good for just a 3.08 yards per carry. That's awful. And that shouldn't change this week against the Lions, who allow the fewest rush attempts in the league (16.9) and the 6th fewest in rushing yards allowed (71.9) per game. Detroit runs a near-even split between zone concept (40.8%) and man/gap (37.5%) run defence. Against zone schemes, they allow 3.65 yards per carry (6th lowest in the NFL), but in man/gap situations, they’re more vulnerable, giving up 4.41 yards per carry (14th highest). Croskey-Merritt has been efficient against both, averaging 4.61 yards per carry against zone and 4.71 against man/gap this season. But as we covered, his last month hasn't reflected that output. The Lions allow a moderate number of receptions out of the backfield (4.6 per game for 13th most), but that's not really his game. On top of all of this, we're seeing Chris Rodriguez creep into his usage. Last week Croskey-Merritt had a 46.8% snap share, to Rodriguez's 35.5%.

Suggested Pick:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt u9.5 Rush Attempts (-115)

WR Deebo Samuel

It's just upsetting that Deebo hasn't been able to find a rhythm with a QB with all the injuries this season. He's done fine with Mariota, catching 11 of his 15 targets for 94 receiving yards in his three starts, but it's not as impressive as his numbers with Daniels. This week, he gets the Lions defence, who allow the 15th fewest receptions (11.1 per game) but the 14th most receiving yards (148.5 per game), indicating that big plays can be had despite the limited volume. Against man this season, he’s earned the highest target share on the Commanders (25.9%), catching 10 of 15 targets for 91 yards on 59 routes, with a 10.5 yards per reception and 1.85 yards per route run. Against Cover 1, he’s caught 5 of 10 targets for 55 yards on 47 routes. Deebo runs 63% of his snaps in the slot. The Lions allow the 14th highest target rate (82), the 11th highest yards per reception (11.3), but the 8th lowest catch rate (67.1%). What we didn't mention above is that 72 of his 94 receiving yards with Mariota came in one game – against a zone-heavy Falcons team. Two of those games he finished with just 11 receiving yards. So, he should see plenty of targets, but his numbers drastically dip against man coverage. Everything is going against Deebo in this matchup.

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel u53.5 Receptions (-110)

WR Jaylin Lane

Everybody help me welcome Jaylin Lane to the Commanders Game Guide. It's his first appearance on this list due to the injuries to Terry McLaurin and Luke McCaffrey. Despite that, he's actually got some intriguing numbers heading into this week. Lane has excelled against man coverage this season, showcasing his ability to win one-on-one matchups. He leads the Commanders in receiving yards against the coverage, catching 5 of 10 targets for 113 yards on 46 routes, earning a 23.4% target share. His efficiency in man coverage is strong, with a 54.5% catch rate, 20.7 yards per reception, and 2.64 yards per route run, all significantly higher than his production against zone coverage, where he averages just 3.6 yards per reception and a 0.2 yards per route run. In fact, all of those man coverage stats actually come against Cover 1, which the Lions run at the third highest rate in the league. Lane lines up outside on 60.1% of his routes. The Lions targeted outside receivers at the 13th highest rate (111), allowing the 8th lowest catch rate (59.5%), but the 11th highest yards per game (115.6) and 14.02 yards per reception. Chris Moore continues to outsnap Lane on a week-by-week basis. However, in three Mariota starts this season, Lane has earned a 9% target share compared to Moore's 5.1% – who saw a 0% target share last week. We really don't like a lot for the Commanders offence this week, but Lane may be the lone bright spot.

Suggested pick:

Jaylin Lane o25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Zach Ertz

Ertz continues to be a steady middle of the field option for this Commanders offence, but has yet to be truly spectacular since his pair of TDs in the first two weeks of the season. The Lions defence has been stingy to opposing TEs, allowing the 10th fewest receptions (5.8) and 14th fewest receiving yards (49) per game to the position. Ertz has a 20% target share against man coverage, highlighting his role as a safety valve in short and intermediate areas. This season, he’s converted 6 of 14 targets for 39 yards on 69 routes against man, and 5 of 12 targets for 34 yards on 58 routes against Cover 1. However, his efficiency metrics — catch rate 58.8%, yards per reception 5.9, yards after catch 0.8, yards per route run 0.63 — dip in man coverage compared to zone. The Lions’ coverage schemes are designed to limit efficiency in the middle of the field, which is where Ertz operates most frequently, with him lining up in the slot on 60.3% of his snaps. We covered how restricting this Lions defence is to opposing slot receivers. However, Mariota is going to need to target somebody this week. He has caught nine of his 13 targets in Mariota starts this season.

Suggested pick:

Zach Ertz o3.5 Receptions (-170)

The Lions are one of the best bounce back teams in the NFL over the last couple years coming off a loss. Give me the Lions

Best Bets: Lions -6.5 -135
Lean Under 49.5 -130
Score Prediction Lions 27 Commanders 17

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Lions): Sam LaPorta +130

Sam LaPorta enters this matchup as Detroit’s primary seam-stretcher and middle-of-field zone manipulator. Washington allows 60.2 receiving yards per game to tight ends (11th-most) and is 5th-worst in TDs allowed to TEs, especially against teams that run play-action glance, under-seam layering, and counter boot, all staples of Detroit’s passing structure. Against the Commanders’ frequent Cover 3 and Cover 1, LaPorta averages 1.52 YPRR and a .15 TPRR rate — stable efficiency with defined red-zone involvement. Washington’s linebackers struggle to maintain depth and match crossers, resulting in large void zones between linebacker depth and safety rotation landmarks — the exact spaces LaPorta specializes in accessing. He already scored 6/51/1 in this matchup last January, and Detroit is currently deploying him at an 83% route rate, near every-down passing utility.

Best Pick: (Commanders): Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+165)

Deebo hasn't scored in three straight weeks, so one could argue that he's due. Mariota has thrown four passing TDs in his four games this season, Deebo was the beneficiary of one in Week 3. The Lions defence are allowing 2.0 passing TDs per game, so it just makes sense to target the guy who will see the most target for this Commanders offence. He has also seen the most inside the 20 targets and end zone targets this season.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Lions): David Montgomery First TD +415

This is a game script where Detroit is expected to control possession early, lean into scripted sequencing, and enter the red zone before Washington does. If their first scoring play comes on the ground, the probability significantly favors Montgomery over Gibbs, who is used more frequently in horizontal-space and secondary-read passing concepts rather than early-drive interior scoring situations. Detroit also increases Montgomery’s snap share on opening drives and in short-clock scoring opportunities, meaning his first 12–15 minutes usage rate spikes above his game-long average.

Best Pick: (Commanders) Marcus Mariota First TD (+1400)

With how beat up the Commanders offence is, the Lions defence can pretty much just worry about double teaming Deebo and pretty much lock up their only threatening receiver. In those scenarios, Mariota won't have any other option but to rush it in himself. He scored a rushing TD in his first start of the season, while the Lions are allowing a QB to score a TD at a top-10 rate in the NFL.

 Parlay #1 (Lions) +745

David Montgomery ATD

Sam LaPorta ATD

Jahmyr Gibbs 'O' 22.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: (Commanders) +210 odds on bet365

Detroit Lions ML

Jaylin Lane 20+ Receiving Yards

Ertz 4+ Receptions

QB Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford is dipping into the fountain of youth this year. In his last 5 games alone, the Rams starting QB has thrown 16 TD and 0 INT! Sean McVay has perfectly married the run and pass games into a lethal combination that keeps defenses guessing. This Sunday, Stafford has an ideal matchup here against a 49ers defense that struggles to rush the passer (30% forced pressure rate). The absences of Nick Bosa and Fred Warner have been absolutely devastating for SF, as they are 31st in pressure rate (26.4%) and 31st in sack rate (2.8) over the last 6 weeks. This has also resulted in the 'Niners allowing the 3rd most passing yards over the last 5 weeks. Stafford has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in 6 of his past 7 games, with 3 or more passing touchdowns in 4 of his past 5. I expect this trend to continue on the road this Sunday in San Fran.

Suggested Bet:

Matthew Stafford u0.5 Interception (+106)

Matthew Stafford 3+ ALT Pass TDs (+116)

RB Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams had a season-high 25 rush attempts, totaling 114 yards on the ground to go with a TD. Despite, sharing more work this season, McVay still leans on him as the workhorse out of the LAR backfield when they are involved in close games. This should be the case on Sunday. The Rams may be coming in as 5.5 point favorites, but playing a division rival, especially on the road is no easy task. Another key loss that's going to play a big role on Sunday is season-ending knee injury of Mykel Williams. With Williams on the field, opposing RBs were averaging just 3.8 YPC, but in 75 backfield runs without Williams on the field, this climbed up to 4.7 YPC.

Suggested Bet:

Kyren Williams o79.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-150)

WR Puka Nacua

It looks as if Puka Nacua will be good to go for Los Angeles on Sunday. The #1 WR has been nothing short of phenomenal this season for the Rams. Across his 6 full games in '25, Nacua’s output has been likened to that of the Triple Crown. He's turned his 70 targets into a stellar 59 receptions for 683 yards receiving and 3 TDs. Still, he is coming in a little banged up and his style of play leads to a lot of bumps and bruises on the field. When these teams played in Week 5, Nacua caught 10 of 12 targets for 85 yards and a touchdown. The 49ers give up the 6th most receptions and 8th most receiving yards in the NFL to opposing wide receivers. I expect he and Davante Adams to continue being the best one-two punch in the league on Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Puka Nacua o89.5 Receiving Yards (-128)

WR Davante Adams

When the Rams faced San Francisco in week 5, Davante Adams caught 5 of 11 targets for 88 yards. Injuries have left the 49ers defense depleted, and this has led to them giving up a ton of production to wide receivers. Over their past 5 games, San Francisco has allowed 14.6 receptions (30th) for 190.0 yards (31st) per game to WRs! It would also be criminal if I didn't point out what Adams has produced in the scoring department for LA. He leads the NFL with 16 end zone targets, and Adams has scored 8 times this season, including 5 in the last two games alone.

Suggested Bet:

Davante Adams o4.5 Receptions (-139)

Davante Adams Anytime TD (-140)

QB Mac Jones

Mac Jones steps into this matchup with one of the most favorable coverage overlays he can see given how the Rams structure their secondary. Los Angeles plays Cover 3 on 40% of snaps, the 5th-highest rate in the league, and Jones has been extremely efficient against this look, averaging 9.28 yards per attempt, a +6.6% completion percentage over expected, and a 107+ passer rating on 89 dropbacks versus this structure. His quick-trigger timing, intermediate rhythm concepts, and ability to layer throws between the hook and flat defenders all align well with how San Francisco’s passing game scripts early drives. The Rams, while disciplined, allow offenses to throw underneath with space and convert methodically — a profile that directly suits Jones’ strengths when operating on schedule. This matchup likely dictates a ball-control offensive approach from San Francisco, forcing Los Angeles to defend longer drives and intermediate windows. The Rams rank 14th-worst in preventing passing gains of 10–19 yards, which is exactly where Jones targets at his highest rate. Their pass rush also ranks in the bottom third in pressure generated per dropback, meaning Jones is less likely to be forced into the mistakes that have plagued him when hurried. In his previous meeting against the Rams earlier this year, Jones produced 342 yards and two touchdowns with consistent pocket control and rhythm. The same structural matchup remains present here.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110)

RB Christian McCaffery

Christian McCaffrey remains the central structural component of the 49ers offense, with San Francisco continuing to feature him in two-way alignment usage — zone-based run progression on early downs combined with angle, choice, and perimeter release receiving concepts. The Rams present one of the more difficult rushing efficiency matchups on paper, allowing the 6th-fewest rushing yards per game (73.5) and maintaining strong gap integrity at the first level. However, they simultaneously allow high EPA on running back receiving production, surrendering the 9th-most receiving yards per game to the position (25.5). McCaffrey accounted for 8 catches, 82 yards, and a receiving touchdown in their prior matchup, created largely from misalignment manipulation against linebackers who struggle to carry him in space. San Francisco is also the type of offense that forces the Rams out of their preferred light-box shell by using condensed formations and motion to remove safety depth flexibility. Once the Rams are forced into heavier front spacing, McCaffrey gains access to his cutback-and-acceleration lanes, where his yards-after-contact and tackle-avoidance rates remain among the highest in the league. Whether the Rams choose to play light or load the box, McCaffrey has a built-in matchup advantage either on the ground or through the air.

Suggested Play:

'O' 119.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-115)

WR Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings continues to operate as San Francisco’s primary perimeter possession and leverage target, particularly on intermediate outbreaking concepts and isolation slants. Against Cover 3 looks, which the Rams utilize heavily, Jennings has logged 1.40 yards per route run with a clear functional role as a chain-moving and spacing receiver. Over the last three weeks, Jennings has held a 23.2% target share and a 33% air-yard share, signaling that San Francisco is actively using him as their primary first-read option on early-down passing sequences when defenses rotate coverage toward McCaffrey. The Rams rank 9th-worst in receiving yards allowed to perimeter receivers (117.4 per game) and have struggled to limit intermediate-depth completions to receivers aligned outside the numbers. Jennings’ physicality at the catch point and ability to hold positioning on in-breakers matches directly against the Rams’ cornerback tendencies, who frequently give up leverage rather than break on the ball with aggression. This sets up a sustained reception profile with touchdown possibility dependent on red-zone sequencing.

Suggested Play:

'O' 4.5 Receptions (+105)

TE George Kittle

George Kittle enters this matchup with a defined role based on coverage leverage and formation structure rather than raw target volume. The Rams allow the 6th-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends (41.5) and are structurally built to defend the seam by keeping short zone defenders compressed. Against Cover 3, Kittle averages 1.04 yards per route run, suggesting that his production is typically modest unless the 49ers are able to eliminate safety depth through play-action. That said, Kittle remains one of the best play-design and opportunity-based scoring tight ends in the league: when San Francisco aligns him tight to the formation and uses run-action with motion, the backside safety can be manipulated, creating shot-window seam openings for Kittle in the high red zone. The Rams’ defense has shown vulnerability when forced into match-carry responsibilities, especially when offenses run condensed splits and force defenders to switch assignments mid-route. San Francisco has designed multiple touchdown sequences for Kittle this season off this exact look. If the 49ers get inside the 10 and the Rams over-commit to McCaffrey’s alignment, Kittle becomes the immediate primary target.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+125)

Best Bet
Lean
Score Prediction 

Parlay #1 (49ers) +235

Christian McCaffery 'O' 119.5 Rush + Rec Yards

Christian McCaffery ATD

Mac Jones 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs

Parlay #2 (Rams) +254

Matthew Stafford 2+ Pass TDs

Puka Nacua 80+ Rec Yards

Davante Adams 4+ Receptions

Davante Adams Anytime TD

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (49ers): George Kittle +125

George Kittle enters this matchup with a defined role based on coverage leverage and formation structure rather than raw target volume. The Rams allow the 6th-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends (41.5) and are structurally built to defend the seam by keeping short zone defenders compressed. Against Cover 3, Kittle averages 1.04 yards per route run, suggesting that his production is typically modest unless the 49ers are able to eliminate safety depth through play-action. That said, Kittle remains one of the best play-design and opportunity-based scoring tight ends in the league: when San Francisco aligns him tight to the formation and uses run-action with motion, the backside safety can be manipulated, creating shot-window seam openings for Kittle in the high red zone. The Rams’ defense has shown vulnerability when forced into match-carry responsibilities, especially when offenses run condensed splits and force defenders to switch assignments mid-route. San Francisco has designed multiple touchdown sequences for Kittle this season off this exact look. If the 49ers get inside the 10 and the Rams over-commit to McCaffrey’s alignment, Kittle becomes the immediate primary target.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (49ers): Christian McCaffery First TD +425

The Rams’ defensive profile increases the likelihood of a McCaffrey touchdown on the first scoring sequence. Los Angeles plays light-box fronts on 68% of early downs, the third-highest rate in the league, designed to prevent vertical explosive passing plays. Against San Francisco, however, this plays into their gap-and-shift zone rushing scheme, where the 49ers use motion and formation displacement to widen linebackers horizontally. Once linebackers widen, McCaffrey gains controlled cutback angles — and he leads all RBs in yards after contact on inside zone runs. Additionally, in goal-to-go sequences, the 49ers show run look with heavy personnel, then pivot into swing, angle, leak, and arrow concepts for McCaffrey in the receiving game. The Rams have allowed the second-most running back receiving touchdowns despite ranking top-10 in raw rushing defense efficiency. That means even if the Rams adequately fit the run early, McCaffrey is still live to score through the air, which increases his first-TD hit probability relative to traditional short-yardage backs.

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers averages 211.5 passing yards per game, 6.96 YPA and a 68.7% completion rate. He’s thrown 17 TDs and 5 interceptions. He’ll face a Chargers defense that ranks 11^th best in EPA/Pass and the 3^rd fewest passing yards per game (177.1). The Chargers run two-high at the 6^th highest rate (56.7%) and zone coverage at the 5^th highest rate (79.9%). Rodgers averages 7.65 YPA, 4.8-yard average depth of target, and a 73.9% completion rate against two-high. That compares to 6.12 YPA, a 62.4% completion rate and a 7.3-yard average depth of target against single-high. Against zone, Aaron averages 7.73 YPA and a 74.2% completion rate. The Chargers allow the 2^nd fewest YPA (8.74) and the 3^rd lowest completion rate (42.5%) on targets 10+ yards downfield. Only 23% of Rodgers’ throws have been 10+ yards down field (last in league) and he’s 26^th in completion rate on these throws (43%). Rodgers will likely dink and dunk.

Suggested Pick:

Over 21.5 Completions (-120)

RB Jaylen Warren

Warren averages 57.7 rushing yards per game on 4.08 YPC. In the past 3 weeks, he’s handled 79% of the backfield rush attempts and he’s ran a route on 37.2% of dropbacks (1 more route than Gainwell). He’s averaging 27.6 receiving yards per game, 2.27 YPRR and 28% TPRR. He’ll face a Chargers defense ranked 10^th worst in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 16^th most rushing yards per game. 74.7% of Warren’s rush attempts have been in zone concept, where he’s averaging 4.39 YPC and a 51.4% success rate. The Chargers are allowing the 8^th most YPC (4.36), but the 7^th lowest success rate (42.5%) against zone concept. They have been susceptible to explosive runs, with the 4^th highest explosive rush rate allowed (8%). Warren has just a 3% explosive run rate, accounting for just 19.3% of his total yards. In terms of the receiving matchup, the Chargers have allowed the 16^th most receiving yards to RB. The Chargers run two-high at the 6^th highest rate (56.7%) and zone coverage at the 5^th highest rate (79.9%). Warren has positive splits against two-high, averaging 3.33 YPRR and 39% TPRR. He also has positive splits against zone, averaging 2.57 YPRR and 29% TPRR. Despite going under the previous 2 weeks, I like this as a bounce back spot for Warren in the receiving game.

Suggested Pick:

Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR DK Metcalf

DK is averaging 58.4 receiving yards per game, 2.06 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 25.3%. He has lined up out wide on 79.7% of his routes. The Chargers have allowed the 3^rd fewest YPRR to wide alignment (1.59). The Chargers run two-high at the 6^th highest rate (56.7%) and zone coverage at the 5^th highest rate (79.9%). DK averages 1.97 YPRR, 15% TPRR and a 18.5% 1^st-read rate against two-high. Against zone coverage, Metcalf averages 2.84 YPRR, 24% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 28.2%. The Chargers allow the 2^nd fewest YPA (8.74) and the 3^rd lowest completion rate (42.5%) on targets 10+ yards downfield. Offenses tend to attack them via short yardage and try to rack up YAC. Metcalf is 1^st on the team in receiving yards on passes 10 or less yards down field, averaging 1.84 YPRR and 23% TPRR.

Suggested Pick:

Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Anytime TD (+165)

WR Calvin Austin

Austin is averaging 37.2 receiving yards per game, 1.53 YPRR and 19% TPRR. He’s 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 20.5%. He has split his time 50-50 between wide and slot alignment. The Chargers have allowed the 10^th most YPRR (1.81) to the slot, but the 3^rd fewest YPRR to wide alignment (1.59). The Chargers run two-high at the 6^th highest rate (56.7%) and zone coverage at the 5^th highest rate (79.9%). Austin averages 1.24 YPRR, 12% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 13.8% against two-high. Against zone coverage, Austin averages 1.21 YPRR, 16% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 15%. The Chargers allow the 2^nd fewest YPA (8.74) and the 3^rd lowest completion rate (42.5%) on targets 10+ yards downfield. Offenses tend to attack them via short yardage and try to rack up YAC. Austin averages 1.16 YPRR and 17% TPRR on passes 10 or less yards down field.

Suggested Pick:

Over 2.5 Receptions (-150) *Lean

TE Jonnu Smith/Pat Freiermuth

Jonnu Smith has run a route on 57.1% of dropbacks, averaging 19.9 receiving yards per game, 1.05 YPRR and 21% TPRR. Freiermuth has run a route on 47.4% of dropbacks, averaging 28.4 receiving yards per game, 1.80 YPRR and 19% TPRR. Most of Pat’s success came in week 7 against the Bengals, with a 111 receiving yard performance, so these numbers feel a little skewed. Pittsburgh has also run Darnell Washington out there at times, so it’s tough to predict who will produce any given week. The Chargers are allowing the 4^th fewest receiving yards and 3^rd fewest receptions to tight ends. The Chargers run two-high at the 6^th highest rate (56.7%) and zone coverage at the 5^th highest rate (79.9%). Freiermuth averages 2.13 YPRR and 18% TPRR against two-high. Jonnu averages 1.49 YPRR and 24% TPRR against two-high. Against zone, Freiermuth averages 2.19 YPRR and 21% TPRR. Jonnu averages 1.21 YPRR and 23% TPRR against zone.

Suggested Pick:

Jonnu Smith Over 2.5 Receptions (-163)

QB Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert enters this matchup operating as the tactical centerpiece of Los Angeles’ offense, particularly with the Chargers’ increased reliance on movement-based pocket relocation and tempo-controlled empty formations to mitigate their protection challenges. The loss of LT Joe Alt is a meaningful structural blow — Alt led all rookie tackles in true pass set efficiency and functioned as Herbert’s blindside stabilizer. Without him, Herbert’s depth of target has condensed slightly, with quicker half-field read sequencing and designed rollouts becoming more frequent. Pittsburgh, however, remains one of the league’s most exploitable pass defenses because of how aggressively they pattern-match vertical stems while conceding intermediate in-breakers and boundary comeback space. The Steelers deploy man coverage on 36% of opponent dropbacks, and Herbert’s averages in those matchups — 6.3 YPA and -3.2% CPOE — reflect more aggressive contest windows, but crucially, Herbert compensates by adding meaningful rushing value. He’s logged 24+ rushing yards in seven of nine games, largely via scramble conversion on broken pocket containment. The Steelers allow the most passing yards per game (299.5) and have surrendered 342+ passing yards in four of their last five — and they struggle to pass off crossers once their safeties rotate into late coverage. If the Chargers use tempo, stack releases, and isolate McConkey or Allen on delayed outbreakers, they will generate repeated intermediate gains. Herbert should find sustained drive success even with imperfect protection, and if Pittsburgh counteracts with blitz frequency, Herbert historically punishes single-high rotations with backside dig-and-pivot concepts.

Suggested Play:
'O' 255.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Kimani Vidal

Kimani Vidal’s usage remains clear — he’s the primary early-down sequencing back with majority-route participation in two-minute and neutral scripts. Vidal’s efficiency has fluctuated because Los Angeles’ run game currently lacks consistent entry points in their zone schemes; without Alt, backside cutoff blocks have been less effective, forcing Vidal into horizontal string-out paths where contact arrives early. That said, Vidal ranks top-10 in explosive run rate and is among the league’s leaders in yards earned after initial contact, which matters against Pittsburgh, a defense that ranks sixth-lowest in stuff rate but allows the tenth-most yards after contact per carry. Pittsburgh’s front, particularly post-Cam Heyward injury adjustments, has leaned more on stunt-and-twist interior pressure to manufacture disruption, which opens run creases when second-level linebackers over-pursue. If the Chargers maintain game neutrality early, Vidal should see sustained involvement in drive-start situations. However, the Steelers’ defensive success rate against standard run looks suggests yardage volume will be more grind-based than explosive.

Suggested Play:
'O' 68.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey profiles as Herbert’s rhythm-and-timing stabilizer, and this matchup plays directly into his strengths. Pittsburgh operates one of the league’s highest single-high safety structures (61.2%), where slot receivers frequently gain leverage off option routes, particularly when matched vs off-man. McConkey owns a 1.85 YPRR and .28 TPRR vs man — meaning Herbert targets him often and efficiently when defenses challenge early-break timing. When faced with middle-of-field closed alignments, the Chargers frequently deploy McConkey through short-motion stacks, allowing him to dictate release angles and separate via pivot and whip concepts. The Steelers’ slot coverage metrics are among the weakest in the league: they allow the sixth-most receiving yards per game to slot alignments and struggle to maintain coverage integrity on late-break drags. If the Chargers use planned spacing concepts, McConkey will control intermediate possession volume.

Suggested Play:
'O' 5.5 Receptions (-140)

WR Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen’s route participation has fluctuated due to rotational personnel decisions, but when on the field, he remains a high-precision option against single-high safety systems. Pittsburgh allows the most receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers, largely due to cornerback leverage discipline breaking down against layered isolation concepts. Allen’s ability to manipulate defenders with tempo-controlled stems and leverage-based cuts remains intact — he maintains a 29% target-per-route-run rate vs single-high and has been consistently used on boundary curl and glance-set repackages that Herbert favors when pressured. If Allen’s snap share trends back toward 70%+, he is the most matchup-leveraged player in this offense. Even if route volume is moderated, matchup geometry favors him.

Suggested Play:
'O' 42.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Oronde Gadsden

Gadsden has emerged as the coverage stressor in the Chargers’ pass structure, operating as a seam and dig-linebody presence that forces linebackers into difficult depth-and-width conflict decisions. The Steelers allow 72.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends — fourth-most — due to how frequently they drop edge defenders into hook zones, which can create miscommunication on seam carry assignments. Gadsden’s frame and ball-winning profile makes him particularly effective on high cross, pop seam, and settle-over-middle concepts, especially when Herbert climbs the pocket. Given Herbert’s recent increase in scramble-to-throw plays, Gadsden is positioned for secondary play extension opportunities, where his shielding leverage is a key advantage.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+150)

This game will be a back and forth game. Give me the over 

Best Bet Over 44.5 -120
Lean Chargers -2.5 -120
Score Prediction Steelers 21 Chargers 24

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Chargers): Oronde Gadsden (+150)

Gadsden has emerged as the coverage stressor in the Chargers’ pass structure, operating as a seam and dig-linebody presence that forces linebackers into difficult depth-and-width conflict decisions. The Steelers allow 72.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends — fourth-most — due to how frequently they drop edge defenders into hook zones, which can create miscommunication on seam carry assignments. Gadsden’s frame and ball-winning profile makes him particularly effective on high cross, pop seam, and settle-over-middle concepts, especially when Herbert climbs the pocket. Given Herbert’s recent increase in scramble-to-throw plays, Gadsden is positioned for secondary play extension opportunities, where his shielding leverage is a key advantage.

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +165

Dk has scored 5 of the last 7 weeks as he’s the clear number 1 option for Rodgers. The Chargers have been good against WRs overall but has struggled against some WR1s. Hollywood Brown went for 10 receptions and 99 yards week 1, Sutton had 118 yards and a TD, Deebo had 96 yards and a TD and Pittman had 58 yards and a TD. DK has atleast 1 redzone target in 7 straight games.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Chargers) Kimani Vidal First TD +630

Inside the red area, the Chargers trust Vidal to handle first-touch opportunities, as he has retained the majority of goal-line carry share since replacing Hampton. The Steelers’ safety alignments also influence this dynamic — when they roll into single-high in scoring range, they squeeze slant and glance windows, meaning Los Angeles will be more inclined to run on early downs rather than letting Herbert throw into compressed spacing. If the Chargers open the game with a sustained scripted drive (as they frequently do), Vidal should see at least one 1st-and-goal or inside-the-10 carry, making him the most natural candidate to finish the first scoring sequence.

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +1000

Same analysis as anytime, he has yet to score in the first quarter but his time is coming. Out of anyone scoring on the Steelers, I want to choose Rodgers’ WR1.

 Parlay #1 (Chargers) +530

Justin Herbert 'O' 255.5 Pass Yards

Kimani Vidal 'O' 10.5 Receiving Yards

Oronde Gadsden ATD

Parlay #2 (Steelers) +518

Jaylen Warren Over 17.5 Receiving Yards

DK Metcalf Over 49.5 Receiving Yards

DK Metcalf Anytime Touchdown