QB Jacoby Brissett

Jacoby Brissett will get the start tonight at quarterback for Arizona, however head coach Jonathan Gannon threw us a curveball when he announced that Kyler Murray (foot sprain) could have a role tonight. This gave me a very uneasy feeling at first, but the more I look into this game I think we have even more added value on Brissett's props. The Cardinals are coming into MNF as a 3.5 point road underdog and we have an expected over/under point total sitting at 53.5. With an Arizona backfield that is currently in shambles and a Cowboys Dallas pass defense that has been atrocious all season, this all points in the direction of a pass heavy approach. In 2 starts this season, Brissett has looked very comfortable and played extremely well in this Cardinals offense. I am specifically targeting his over 22.5 pass completions for this game. Brissett has cleared this spot in both of his starts this season. In week 6, he completed 27 of 44 passes at Indianapolis and 25 of 36 in week 7 vs Green Bay. Jonathan Gannon's offense has leaned on quick, high percentage throws all year in order to stay competitive in all of their close losses. Now, Brissett has the luxury of a great matchup tonight in Dallas, where the Cowboys defense has surrendered the 2nd most pass YPG (258.6) and 2nd most pass TD per game (2.2). Opposing QBs have are completing 69.0% of passes against DAL, and this is due to the Cowboys relying heavily on zone coverage for 85% of their defensive snaps. This inflates short completion rates, which is ideal for Jacoby Brissett's check down style that has been quiet efficient (7.4 YPA) for him in '25. When you take all of this and see that Dallas allows the 11th most pass completions (23.0) on the 14th most pass attempts (33.5) to opposing QBs it doesn't take a genius to figure out that Brissett is finding himself in a dream matchup against a bottom 10 Cowboys pass defense, which has the the 8th worst EPA/pass play allowed. In only 2 starts, Brissett has built wonderful rapport with the Cardinals pass catchers, and it's no wonder. Jacoby threw for 320 yards in his very first start this season, something Kyler Murray hasn't done in 66 games! Nobody has given up more plays of 20+ pass yards than Dallas, and Brissett two starts have produced 6 plays of 20+ yards, however 65% of his completions have come on underneath throws. He also has an extremely low INT rate, throwing just one pick in his last 126 atempts. He has a full compliment of receivers who are all fully healthy and this all shapes up for him to shatter this line with relative ease.

Suggested Bet:

Jacoby Brissett o22.5 Completions (-123)

Jacoby Brissett 2+ Pass TD (-152)
Jacoby Brissett 3+ Pass TD (-242)

RB Bam Knight

Bam Knight has a solid matchup on the ground tonight when faces the Cowboys, however Arizona just simply does not like to run the football. The Cardinals stil plan to use Knight on early downs with Emari Demercado resuming his role in the pass-catching game, which we're expecting to see a lot of tonight. Another major issue here is that Knight is averaging just 3.4 YPC, and while Dallas has not been good against the run, we've seen Arizona have similar matchups and it still hasn't yielded positive results in the running game. With regard to running plays of 5+ yards or more, the Cardinals rank 31st in the league. 

Suggested Bet:

Pass

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

This is an excellent opportunity for Marvin Harrison Jr. to showcase his best performance of the season under the bright lights of MNF in Big-D. Aside from a great matchup, MHJ will have Jacoby Brissett under center, where the Arizona WR has has seen his first read targets increase by more than 10%.One obviousArizona is giving the ball to Jacoby Brissett. In his initial game, Harrison Jr. managed only 32 yards, but he had to leave the with over 6:00 left in the 2nd quarter after sustaining a concussion. He returned the following week, where he recorded 58 yards on 6 targets against the Packers. Now, MHJ has arguably his most favorable matchup of the entire season when he meets Dallas, who is still without the services of CB Trevon Diggs. I absolutely love Harrison Jr. to clear his set line of 59.5 receiving yards in primetime tonight. This season, the Cowboys are giving up 3rd highest number of receiving yards to opposing WR, and a receiver has surpassed this line in 6 of the last 7 weeks against DAL. They have absolutely been lit up all season long in a laundry list that includes, Malik Nabors (167), Wan'Dale Robinson (142), Luther Burden (101), Troy Franklin (89), Garrett Wilson (71), Courtland Sutton (67), Rome Odunze (62), Darius Slayton (61) and Jaylin Lane (60). The Cowboys utilize zone coverage at the 6th highest frequency in the NFL (85.0%), where MHJ performs significantly better, boasting a 1.99 YPRR and .115 separation score. His 14.9% win rate vs zone coverage ranks 6th among all NFL wide receivers with over 100 routes run this season. It should also be pointed out that against outside receivers (where Harrison plays rougly 80% of his snaps), the Cowboys are allowing the 2nd most YPT (11.1) and 2nd highest TD rate (12.4%). Harrison's 3.5 total receptions line is highly juiced at -172, giving it a strong likelihood of hitting the over. In the 3 games this year in which MHJ has caught 4 balls or more, he has surpassed this line, posting receiving totals of 71, 66 and 98 yards. This is a very promising scenario for Harrison in a pass heavy script, where Arizona is coming in as a 3.5 point underdog with a set total of 53.5. Both teams also rank among the top 10 in the league in terms of pace, providing numerous chances for plays to develop. All year long, the Dallas defense has been a favorable target for passing offenses and I expect Marvin Harrison Jr. to capitalize on this with with the opportunity (much like Drake London yesterday) to deliver an outstanding performance.

Suggested Bet:

Marvin Harrison Jr. o3.5 Receptions (-172)

Marvin Harrison Jr. o59.5 Rec Yards (-110)

WR Zay Jones

Zay Jones is one of my favorite spots of the night for Arizona. He's coming off a bye week, which has helped him to recover from his recent injury and he had no limitations at all this week in practice. Zay's reception line of 1.5 is fairly juiced at -142, but I would go so far as to say this line is absolutely criminal. Jones has an incredible connection with starting QB Jacoby Brissett. In the two games Brissett has started, he's targeted Jones 10 times, where he posted 5-79 (@ IND) and 2-67 (vs GB). 5 of his 7 catches have been for 17+ yards, and Zay recorded long receptions of 24 and 43 yards in those two games. He's capable of taking short passes and breaking away for big chunks, while also beating defenders down field on long throws. This game has a very similar script to the one Arizona had at Indianapolis, and I like the chemistry he and Brissett have shown.

Suggested Bet:

Zay Jones o1.5 Receptions (-142)

Zay Jones o21.5 Rec Yards (-111)
Zay Jones 40+ ALT Rec Yards (+230)

Zay Jones o12.5 Longest Receptions (-115)

TE Trey McBride

The narrative remains the same for Trey McBride no matter who Arizona has playing quarterback. That said, nobody on the Cardinals roster benefited more than McBride when Brissett was placed under center. In 2 games played alongside Jacoby Brissett, the Arizona TE posted games of 8-72-1 (@ IND) and 10-74-2 (vs GB). McBride logged 11 and 13 targets, respectively in those two games. Most astonishingly, McBride has caught just 5 TDs in 39 games with Kyler Murray, and he's already found the end zone 3 times in 2 starts by Brissett in '25. But isn't there some reason behind this? The clear answer is yes, and it goes directly back to the play-action splits that I broke down in detail two weeks ago in my ARI @ GB game guide. Trey McBride ranks 2nd in the NFL, only to Jaxon Smith-Njigba (35.5%) in target share on play-action passes. Now, we may get a few snaps from Murray tonight, but overall we should still see excellent production out of McBride against a Cowboys defense who is giving up the 10th most receptions (6.0), along with a 79.5% catch rate (5th highest) to opposing TEs.

Suggested Bet:

Trey McBride o6.5 Receptions (-143)
Trey McBride 8+ ALT Receptions (+125)
Trey McBride 9+ ALT Receptions (+213)

QB Dak Prescott
Dak is coming off a very similar week to his Week 1 performance, the two outings being his only game this season with under 200 passing yards. You can forgive him because it was against the Philadelphia Eagles and Denver Broncos, two prolific defences. This week, he gets an Arizona defence that leans heavily on zone coverage, particularly Cover 4. The Cardinals allow the 6th most completions (24.1) and the 5th most pass attempts (38) per game to opposing QBs. Dak has been one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks against zone coverage this season. Against zone coverage, Dak ranks 4th in completion percentage (75.7%) and posting a solid 101.9 QBR. However, his average of 171.6 passing yards per game against zone sits in the middle of the pack. Prescott has also been sharp, specifically against Cover 4 — at which the Cardinals run at the highest rate (27.4%) in the league. He’s completing 77.8% of his throws for an average of 8.4 yards per attempt in those situations, which both rank in the top 10. We do like a bounce-back for Prescott, coming off the down week for this matchup against a Cardinals defence that allows a ton of volume through the air.
Suggested pick:
Dak Prescott o36.5 Pass Attempts (-105)

RB Javonte Williams
It was all lining up for a big revenge game for Javonte last week. However, he had his worst week as a Cowboy, turning his 13 rush attempts into just 41 rushing yards. This week, it might be another tough outing. The Cardinals allow the 14th fewest rush attempts (20.6) and the 15th fewest rushing yards (86.4) per game, generally holding opponents in check but not quite shutting down the ground game, either. From a schematic standpoint, Arizona heavily relies on zone concepts, using them at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL (50%). Against those looks, the Cardinals have been consistent, allowing nearly identical yards per carry whether in zone (4.15) or man/gap (4.13). That stability suggests the Cardinals don’t often give up long, gashing runs. Unfortunately for Williams, he has been far more efficient when facing man/gap situations this season, averaging 5.75 yards per carry compared to just 4.36 against zone concepts. Which, given Williams' bowling ball, power-based running style, would make sense. Where the Cardinals have been more vulnerable is through the air. Arizona gives up the 10th most receptions (4.7) and the 14th most receiving yards (31.6) per game to opposing RBs. But unfortunately for Williams, that's really not his game. He has eight catches on 13 targets for 19 receiving yards over the last month. There's really no clear edge in our eyes for Javonte in this matchup.
Suggested Pick:
Pass

WR CeeDee Lamb
By the skin of our teeth, Lamb goes under his line in what was a tough matchup against the Pat Surtain-led Broncos defence. He now draws a matchup with an Arizona defence that has been more vulnerable through the air. The Cardinals allow the 8th most receptions (12.7) and 16th most receiving yards (146) per game to opposing wideouts, putting them around the middle of the league in overall pass defence efficiency. Against zone coverage this season, Lamb's caught 15 of 22 targets for 245 yards on 91 routes. He has an 80% catch rate, 16.5 yards per reception, and a strong 6.6 yards after the catch against zone coverage. He does see his yards per route run (3.36) dip slightly compared to his numbers against man, but his ability to find soft spots of the defence and create after the catch makes him one of the league’s most reliable zone receivers. Against Cover 4 specifically, Lamb hasn't really been tested much. He has just one reception on three targets for 18 receiving routes on his 18 routes. Lamb’s lined up out wide on 70.1% of his snaps this season, which is a bit different from the heavy slot usage he played last season. The Cardinals have allowed the 15th highest catch rate (62.4%) and receiving yards per game (105.6) to outside receivers. Lamb has logged 7+ receptions in three of his four games that he's started and finished this season. He should be more free against a worse Cardinals defence.
Suggested pick:
CeeDee Lamb o6.5 Receptions (-130)

WR George Pickens
Just because Lamb came back, it really hasn't slowed Pickens down in the slightest. In the two weeks since Lamb's return, Pickens has caught 11 receptions on 15 targets for 160 receiving yards. This week, he'll get the Cardinals' zone-heavy defence. Pickens has been efficient and reliable against zone looks this season, catching 25 of 34 targets for 385 yards on 175 routes. That’s a 79.4% catch rate and a healthy 2.84 yards per route run. In contrast, his yards per reception (16.2) and yards after catch (4.4) are slightly lower than what he posts against man coverage. Against Cover 4 specifically, Pickens has been perfect this year, catching all six of his targets for 93 yards on 29 routes. Pickens also spends most of his time lined up on the outside, playing 87.7% of his snaps out wide this season. To which we've already covered that the Cardinals are about middle of the pack against outside WRs. One interesting note from last week was seeing Pickens aDoT fall to less than double-digits for the first time since he became a Cowboy. But before that, he had an aDoT of over 18 yards in two of the next three games. I'm expecting that under the bright lights of Monday Night Football, Dak targets Pickens deep down the field in this matchup.
Suggested pick:
George Pickens o24.5 Longest Reception (-115)

TE Jake Ferguson
What happened to Ferguson last week? He earned just one target in a game they were trailing from the opening quarter. However, there aren't many better teams to match up against to get back in the right direction. The Cardinals have struggled against TEs all year, allowing the 4th most receptions (6.7) and the 4th most receiving yards (68.7) per game to the position. As we've mentioned, the Cardinals are a very zone-heavy team, which is just perfect for Ferguson. He has been outstanding against zone coverage this season, catching 34 of 38 targets for 255 yards on 139 routes. His 90.9% catch rate, 7.7 yards per reception, 4.8 yards after the catch per reception and 1.94 yards per route run all represent significant jumps compared to his output against man coverage. Against Cover 4 specifically, Ferguson has been perfect, catching all three of his targets for 22 yards on 21 routes, continuing that trend of reliability against zone looks and speaks to his 27.7% target share against the coverage, which leads the team. After Lamb’s return two weeks ago, Ferguson initially shifted back to more inline usage. However, last week, he ran 70.6% of his routes from the slot. Arizona has struggled mightily to defend the slot, targeting that alignment at the 4th-highest rate (89) while allowing the 9th-highest catch rate (73%) and the 4th-most yards per game (88.4). That overlap between Ferguson’s deployment and Arizona’s weakest defensive area makes him a likely focal point for Dak this week.
Suggested pick:
Jake Ferguson o4.5 Receptions (-165)
Jake Ferguson 7+ Receptions (+235)

This will most likely be a shootout as both defenses are really bad as both have allowed at least 20+ points over the last 4 games. I trust Dallas though more in this spot simply because they are @Home and Arizona might be switching QB's throughout this game.

Best Bet: Dallas -2.5 -125
Lean: Over 52.5 -135
Score Prediction Cardinals 27 Cowboys 30

Anytime TD

Best Play (Cardinals):  Marvin Harrison Jr. +130

After a slow day at Indianapolis in week 6, Marvin Harrison Jr. regained his target share involvement in the Arizona offense vs Green Bay the following week. MHJ is running a route on 83.6% of QB dropbacks in the Cardinals offense, and he's been lined up out wide for 80.1% of those. Harrison is coming into MNF fresh off a bye, and he will face a Cowboys defense that concedes the 2nd highest TD rate to outside receivers (12.5%) in the NFL.

First TD Scorer:

Best Play (Cardinals):  Trey McBride +850

The biggest indictment on the quarterback play of Kyler Murray can be found right here. In 39 games with Murray under center, Trey McBride has found the end zone just 5 times. In only 2 career games played with Jacoby Brissett at QB, McBride has hauled in 3 TDs! In these past two games with Brissett, the Arizona TE has been targeted 24 times, where he's hauled in 18 catches for 146 yards and 3 scores. And yes, for those who do some of their own research I'm well aware Dallas has surrendered just 2 TD to opposing tight ends in '25, but prior to playing Indianapolis and Green Bay, they also had each allowed only 2 touchdowns to the TE position.

Longshot (Cardinals):  Greg Dortch +3500

In the 2 starts Jacob Brissett has made for Arizona, he has thrown 4 TDs, and every single one of them has gone to a Cardinals tight end. Both Trey McBride and Greg Dortch each caught a TD in week 6 at IND, and as I documented above, McBride caught both in week 7 at GB. There are exceptions, but the lion share of touchdowns caught from the TE position are a byproduct of play-action, and this is Brissett's bread and butter

Parlay #1 (Cardinals):  Best Play +440  DK

Jacoby Brissett 22+ Completions

Jacoby Brissett 2+ Pass TDs

Marvin Harrison Jr. 60+ Rec Yards

Trey McBride 7+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Cardinals):  Longshot +4730  DK

Marvin Harrison Jr. 70+ Rec Yards

Marvin Harrison Jr. 2+ TDs

Trey McBride 8+ Receptions

Trey McBride Anytime TD

QB Lamar Jackson 

Lamar Jackson returns to action against a Dolphins defense that ranks middle of the pack in man coverage rate but plays zone on two-thirds of their defensive snaps — a structure that often leaves large escape lanes underneath. Miami’s Cover 2/Cover 4 shell (52% combined usage) aims to keep eyes on the quarterback, but with their linebackers widening in pattern-matching responsibilities, they’ve quietly allowed the second-most schedule-adjusted rushing production to QBs (+1.6 over expected). In particular, the Dolphins’ interior gaps have been vulnerable on rollouts and broken play scrambles, allowing over 25 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks on non-designed runs. Before his hamstring injury, Jackson had been averaging 8.1 designed carries and 6.7 scrambles per game, producing 52+ rushing yards in three straight contests. Miami’s wide front (3-3-5 nickel look) and slower pursuit from the second level set up favorably for Jackson’s zone-read and RPO tendencies. Expect offensive coordinator Todd Monken to use heavier formations to pull linebackers forward, creating open-field opportunities on the edge. The Dolphins’ safeties can be baited with motion, and Jackson thrives attacking that vacated space.  Miami’s discipline in coverage is strong, but their spatial control breaks down once the pocket collapses. Jackson’s legs are likely to decide the game’s pace, and he’s in an ideal spot to surpass the 50-yard mark on scrambles and designed keepers.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 36.5 Rush Yards (-120)

RB Derrick Henry

Since joining Baltimore, Derrick Henry’s impact on the Ravens’ inside-zone and gap-scheme identity has been undeniable. In games with Jackson active, Henry has averaged 5.8 yards per carry, compared to just 3.8 without him — evidence of how the dual-threat stress improves his efficiency. The Dolphins’ front has been inconsistent defending power concepts: they allow 5.0 YPC overall and the third-most rushing yards per game (117.6), despite a respectable 12th ranking in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.81). The key weakness lies in the second level — Miami’s linebackers have missed 16.4% of tackle attempts in the run game since Week 4, the second-worst rate in the league.Baltimore’s offensive line, which leads the league in rush success rate over left guard (61%), will look to exploit that. Henry has handled 61% of the team’s carries inside the 10-yard line, while Miami’s defense has allowed touchdowns on 68% of red-zone rush attempts — the second-worst clip in the NFL. With Lamar freezing linebackers on zone reads and Miami’s safeties forced to respect play-action, Henry should find clean creases between the tackles. The combination of Lamar’s read-option gravity and Miami’s soft middle front sets Henry up for continued goal-line success. Expect Baltimore to lean on him heavily once inside the 20-yard line.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 1.5 Touchdowns (+180)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers continues to be the most dynamic weapon in Baltimore’s passing attack, consistently generating separation at an elite rate (2.8 yards per route vs man). Against Miami’s coverage mix, Flowers is poised to attack deep. The Dolphins play zone on nearly 67% of snaps, often rotating from two-high looks into Cover 3 buzz. That rotation leaves the deep middle vulnerable when the nickel defender overcommits to the flat, and Flowers has capitalized in these situations, averaging 16.2 yards per reception and 2.02 YPRR against Cover 3/Cover 4 concepts. Flowers’ burst off the line is uniquely suited to counter Miami’s corners — Xavien Howard and Kader Kohou — both of whom allow over 1.9 yards per route defended when facing vertical stems. His usage out of motion (on 35% of snaps) is designed to exploit those matchup disadvantages, particularly on post-cross routes and deep overs. With Lamar back, expect Monken to reintroduce layered RPO shot concepts that isolate Flowers on single coverage downfield. Miami’s back-end rotation can be exploited with tempo and motion. Flowers’ acceleration and route precision make him the clear candidate for a downfield strike against a defense giving up the fourth-most completions of 20+ yards this season.

Suggested Bet: 

‘O’ 25.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

TE Mark Andrews 

Mark Andrews remains Baltimore’s most reliable intermediate option and should see renewed volume with Lamar back under center. In the four games Jackson played, Andrews led the team with 27% of total targets and posted an impressive 1.35 yards per route run against two-high coverage. Miami’s defense, which leans on split-safety shells (Cover 2/Cover 4) over 50% of the time, has struggled against tight ends operating from inline releases — allowing 6.3 receptions and 63.6 yards per game to the position, both top-eight figures. The Dolphins’ safeties have been inconsistent in matching vertical seams — particularly Brandon Jones, who’s allowed a 123.8 passer rating when targeted. Baltimore will likely attack those voids through Andrews’ sit routes and stick concepts, using Henry play-action to freeze linebackers. Andrews’ chemistry with Jackson in high-traffic zones is unmatched; his option route accuracy against both man and zone coverage remains one of the best in the league.  Miami’s zone spacing naturally invites tight end targets underneath. Expect Andrews to reclaim his typical 7–8 target workload and serve as Jackson’s steady chain-mover, particularly on early downs and play-action looks.

Suggested Play: 

Over 3.5 Receptions (+125)

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua is averaging 189.8 passing yards per game, 6.57 YPA and has a 68.8% completion rate. He’s thrown 15 TDs and 10 interceptions. He threw 4 touchdown passes against a Falcons pass defense last week that ranked 5^th best in EPA/Pass. He’ll now face a Ravens defense on a short week that ranks 8^th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 5^th most passing yards per game. The Ravens have the 6^th lowest pressure rate (32.5%). Against pressure, Tua is averaging 4.45 YPA and a 50% completion rate. That compares to 7.25 YPA and a 74.9% completion rate in a clean pocket. From a schematic perspective, the Ravens have played single-high at the 4^th highest rate (61.4%) and man coverage at the 3^rd highest rate (39.4%). Against single-high, Tua averages 6.44 YPA and a 57.4% completion rate. Against man, Tua averages 5.90 YPA and a 65% completion rate. These are both negative splits from a schematic perspective. In Tua’s last 10 home games, he’s averaging 256.5 passing yards. That compares to 201.9 on the road. This game is at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Lamar is expected to return for Baltimore, and the Dolphins are 7.5-point underdogs as a result.  This should be a pass first attack for Tua and the Dolphins.

Suggested Pick:

Over 214.5 Passing Yards (-115)

RB De’Von Achane

Achane averages 67.4 rushing yards per game on 5.04 YPC. He is 6^th in the league amongst RBs with 50+ attempts in explosive run rate (7.5%). He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 4^th worst in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 10^th most rushing yards per game (128.9). The Ravens have sizable splits between man/gap and zone concept runs They are allowing the 3^rd most YPC (5.61) against man/gap, compared to the 4^th fewest YPC (3.37) against zone concept runs. Only 37.4% of Achane’s attempts have been in man/gap, but he has been more productive in these concepts. He’s averaging 5.63 YPC and a 47.5% success rate. That compares to 4.57 YPC and a 41% success rate against zone concept. In the receiving game, Achane is averaging 29.4 yards per game, but that is skewed by a 92-yard game week 2 against the Patriots. Outside of that game, he has not had over 30 receiving yards once. He’ll face a Ravens defense that is 11^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed to the backfield, allowing the 7^th most receiving yards per game to the position (36). From a schematic perspective, the Ravens have played single-high at the 4^th highest rate (61.4%) and man coverage at the 3^rd highest rate (39.4%). Against single-high, Achane averages 0.97 YPRR and 28% TPRR, compared to 1.57 YPRR and 27% TPRR against two-high. Against man, he’s averaging 1.27 YPRR and 23% TPRR, compared to 1.32 YPRR and 28% TPRR against zone.

Suggested Pick:

Over 89.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-135)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Prior to Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, Waddle averaged 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.75 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 25.6% 1^st-read rate. In the 4 games without Tyreek, Waddle is averaging 79.8 receiving yards per game, 3.16 YPRR, 27% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 28.7%. 1 of the 4 games included a nasty weather game against the Browns where he ended with 15 yards. Waddle has lined up out wide on 78.2% of his routes since the Tyreek injury. The Dolphins are 9^th worst in EPA/Pass and have allowed the 8^th most receiving yards per game (116) to wide alignment. From a schematic perspective, the Ravens have played single-high at the 4^th highest rate (61.4%) and man coverage at the 3^rd highest rate (39.4%). On the season, Waddle is averaging 3.08 YPRR and 30% TPRR against single-high. That compares to 1.92 YPRR and 18% TPRR against two-high. Against man, Waddle is averaging 1.89 YPRR and 29% TPRR, which are negative production splits, but his YPRR is higher than Tyreek Hill. That compares to 2.69 YPRR and 24% TPRR against zone. In a losing game-script, I like Waddle to go over his receiving line.

Suggested Pick:

Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Anytime Touchdown (+155)

WR Malik Washington

In the 4 games post Tyreek Hill’s season ending injury, Washington has run a route on 60.7% of dropbacks. He has seen 5+ targets in all 4 games but hasn’t been productive with this volume until the last 2. He caught 5 receptions for 30 yards against the Browns (bad weather) and 4 receptions for 36 yards and a touchdown last week against the Falcons. He’s seeing a lot of short targets, with an average depth of target of 4 yards. He’s lined up from the slot on 51.8% of his routes since the Tyreek injury. The Ravens are 6^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and are allowing the 10^th most receiving yards per game (76.3) to the slot. From a schematic perspective, the Ravens have played single-high at the 4^th highest rate (61.4%). Last season, in a larger sample size, Malik averaged 1.42 YPRR and 19% TPRR against single-high compared to 0.78 YPRR and 16% TPRR against two-high. As 7.5-point underdogs and consistent targets with a low aDOT, I like his receptions.

Suggested Pick:

Over 3.5 Receptions (-118)

TE Tanner Conner/Greg Dulcich

In week 7 with Darren Waller leaving early with an injury, Conner and Hill both ran 11 routes. Tanner caught 1 of 3 targets for 28 yards. Hill caught 1 of 2 targets for 1 yard. From weeks 1-3 prior to Waller making his debut, Conner ran a route on 53.7% of dropbacks, while Hill ran a route on just 20.4% of drop backs. In week 8, Julian Hill sat out with an injury, so Greg Dulcich received some playing time. Julian Hill looks unlikely to play this week as well. Conner had a 28.6% route participation rate, while Dulcich was at 25%. Conner caught 2 of 2 targets for 6 yards, while Dulcich did not receive a target. The Ravens have allowed the 13^th most fantasy points per game to TE and neither of these options are worth betting on.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

The Ravens enter this week with a 2-5 record and get Lamar back. This team will not be messing around because well simply they can't if they want any hope of making the Playoffs. Teams that were bottom 5 in YPC allowed last year the Ravens were 4-0 against them scoring 28,30,30,35 points. The Dolphins are coming off a big game as well and will be riding a little bit of confidence @Home. I hate playing Primetime overs but this feels like the spot to do so. Give me the Ravens to win and the over.

Best Bet: Ravens 'O' 29.5 Pts -129
Lean: Over 50.5 -135
Score Prediction Ravens 30 Dolphins 23

Anytime TD

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) +150

Since the Tyreek Hill season-ending injury, Waddle has been the clear number 1 option for Tua. He has 90+ receiving yards in 3 of 4 games, and the 1 under was in bad weather, a game with a combined 216 passing yards from both QBs. He reached the end zone last week against Atlanta and will face a Ravens defense that has allowed the 3^rd most receiving TDs to WRs (10). The Dolphin’s are 7.5-point underdogs so the Dolphins should be forced to throw the rock.

Best Bet (Ravens): Derrick Henry ‘O’ 1.5 Touchdowns +185

Since joining Baltimore, Derrick Henry’s impact on the Ravens’ inside-zone and gap-scheme identity has been undeniable. In games with Jackson active, Henry has averaged 5.8 yards per carry, compared to just 3.8 without him — evidence of how the dual-threat stress improves his efficiency. The Dolphins’ front has been inconsistent defending power concepts: they allow 5.0 YPC overall and the third-most rushing yards per game (117.6), despite a respectable 12th ranking in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.81). The key weakness lies in the second level — Miami’s linebackers have missed 16.4% of tackle attempts in the run game since Week 4, the second-worst rate in the league.Baltimore’s offensive line, which leads the league in rush success rate over left guard (61%), will look to exploit that. Henry has handled 61% of the team’s carries inside the 10-yard line, while Miami’s defense has allowed touchdowns on 68% of red-zone rush attempts — the second-worst clip in the NFL. With Lamar freezing linebackers on zone reads and Miami’s safeties forced to respect play-action, Henry should find clean creases between the tackles. The combination of Lamar’s read-option gravity and Miami’s soft middle front sets Henry up for continued goal-line success. Expect Baltimore to lean on him heavily once inside the 20-yard line.

First TD Scorer

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) +550

If the Dolphins score early, Achane is the most likely to be the guy to put them into the end zone. The Ravens rank 4^th worst in EPA/Rush and have allowed the 10^th most rushing yards per game. They also have negative splits against Achane’s more productive rush type (man/gap).  The one concern I have for Achane this game is a losing game-script, but early in the game it will be neutral so like the value of Achane scoring first.

Best Bet (Ravens): Zay Flowers First TD +675

Against zone-heavy teams like Miami, Baltimore typically scripts an early isolation concept designed for its best separator. Flowers ranks top 10 among all receivers in yards after the catch versus zone (6.2 YAC per reception) and has drawn at least one red-zone look in six straight games. Expect the Ravens to test the Dolphins’ underneath pursuit immediately — likely with a quick slant, whip route, or tunnel screen designed to let Flowers create after the catch. Baltimore’s early drive scripts prioritize their fastest route-runner in space, and Miami’s high zone rate leaves room for short-area explosiveness to turn into points. With Lamar’s mobility forcing linebackers to hesitate on play action, Flowers has the clearest early-game touchdown path among Baltimore skill players.

Parlay #1 (Dolphins): +327

Tua Tagovailoa 225+ Passing Yards

De’Von Achane 90+ Rush+Receiving Yards

Jaylen Waddle Over 63.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay #1 (Ravens): +315

Lamar Jackson ‘O’ 36.5 Rush Yards

Derrick Henry ATD

Mark Andrews ‘O’ 2.5 Receptions

QB Michael Penix Jr.

Kirk Cousins was absolutely atrocious starting in place of Michael Penix last Sunday. It tells you a lot about the state of the Falcons as a team when they are doing everything they can to rush Michael Penix back. That said, Penix has a tough matchup on the road at Foxboro in week 9 against the Patriots. We have addressed this before, but it’s necessary to point out how dramatically worse Penix’s numbers are on the road as opposed to inside Mercedes Benz Stadium. At home, the Atlanta QB has thrown 4 TD, while averaging 287 passing YPG and 8.6 passing YPA. However, on the road Penix has tossed just 1 TD, averaging 182.7 passing YPG and 5.8 passing YPA. Not only does Penix have limited experience in colder weather in the NFL, but some of his worst moments have come on the road. The only starting quarterback with a worse QB rating on the road than Michael Penix (66.45) is Cam Ward of the dreadful Titans. The New England defense allows just 1.5 TDs per game (13th fewest) and just in case you didn’t catch this earlier, Michael Penix has thrown just ONE touchdown on the road in the entire ’25 season. I also like his line to toss an INT on Sunday. One thing Penix has done is protect the ball, but 2 of his 3 picks have come on the road in outdoor stadiums, and the Pats have forced 3 of 4 opposing QBs to throw at least one INT when playing at home in Foxboro Stadium. On top of that, Penix enters this week 9 with a lame foot/ankle and will be far from 100%.

Suggested Bet:

Michael Penix Jr. u1.5 Pass TDs (-192)

Michael Penix Jr. o0.5 INTs (-108)

RB Bijan Robinson

I am still utterly dumbfounded at just how bad Atlanta’s game plan was last week vs Miami. Bijan Robinson had one of the best RB matchups you’ll see all year, yet Falcons head coach Raheem Morris made the conscious decision to allow Kirk Cousins to take 32 dropbacks compared to 9 runs for Robinson. In all, Bijan touched the ball just 12 times the entire game. Now, he will face a significantly worse matchup this Sunday in New England, where the Patriots are allowing the fewest rushing YPG (54.0) and 2nd fewest YPC (3.2) to opposing RB. On the contrary, the good news is Bijan has a great matchup in the pass-catching game, and I expect a hobbled Michael Penix to lean on him as a security blanket all day in week 9. New England gives up the 2nd most receptions per game (5.9) and 6th most receiving YPG (39.6) to opposing running backs. We’ve already seen Robinson light up some defenses in the pass-catching game this season. He recorded 6-100-1 (vs TB), 4-106-0 (vs WAS), 6-68-0 (vs BUF) and 8-52-1 (@ SF). Bijan has the 4th highest target share (18.5$) among RBs and leads the NFL in YPRR at 2.23.

Suggested Bet:

Bijan Robinson o36+ Rec Yards (-113)
Bijan Robinson 50+ ALT Rec Yards (+176)
Bijan Robinson 60+ ALT Rec Yards (+278)

WR Drake London

Drake London was an unexpected late scratch last Sunday vs Miami due to a hip injury. Prior to that he turned in back-to-back games of 10+ targets, 8+ receptions, 110+ receiving yards and a TD, before he completely flopped against the 49ers in week 7. Despite an overall difficult matchup for starting QB Michael Penix, there is reason for optimism with Drake London this Sunday. New England allows the 8th fewest receptions per game (10.3), and they rank squarely in the middle of the pack in receiving YPG (133.0) allowed to opposing WRs. So why should we be optimistic with London on Sunday? Well, the Patriots numbers go from average to poor when facing receivers in the wideout position. So far in ’25, NE is giving up 110.6 receiving YPG (3rd most) and 2.3 YPRR (5th most) to WR aligned out wide. While London’s biggest games of the year have come with Darnell Mooney off the field, this is still a great spot for him to give us solid production with big game possibilities. Michael Penix certainly factors into Drake’s ceiling in week 9, but he’s posted games of 3-49-0, 5-55-0 and 4-42-0 on the road this season and this is by far a better matchup. I also have to think Atlanta will be playing with some urgency this week. If they want any chance whatsoever of challenging Tampa Bay in the NFC South you have to figure this is pretty much a must win. They cannot afford to fall 3 games back of the Bucs. Lastly, the Pats are allowing 6.7 YPT to slot receivers (13th most) this season, and with London playing 33.2% of his snaps here, I think this will push him over the top to hit this line.

Suggested Bet:

Drake London o61.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

WR Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney gave us some hope when he returned to the field two weeks ago and hauled in 3 catches for 68 yards, but with Drake London sidelined in week 8 with a hip injury, Mooney had a golden opportunity to showcase himself and completely flopped at home against Miami of all teams. Obviously, Kirk Cousins shoulders at least half the responsibility here, but Darnell didn’t go out of his way to himself any favors here, catching just 1 of 4 targets for 11 yards. In 4 games played this season, Mooney has caught just 11 of 25 balls thrown his way (44.0% CR) for 158 yards and has still yet to reach the end zone, and we're already 8 weeks into the season. It’s been a horrific year for the 6th year WR out of Tulane, who has battled both shoulder and hamstring injuries. It doesn’t help that he has had zero continuity at the QB position either. On his best day, Mooney is still the 4th option behind Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. In B2B games, one without Drake London mind you, he has just a 13.0% target rate. Avoid him like the plague.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

WR Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts is quietly quietly on pace for 90+ receptions this season. This should serve as a reminder that eventually talent always wins out in the end. He's had 10+ targets over the L2 weeks and was the was the single bright spot for the Falcons last Sunday, where he caught all 9 of this targets for 59 yards. This also indicates that he is bound for some positive TD regression. One thing you should know, is that Pitts did land on the injury report on Thursday where he was iimited with an ankle injury. This Sunday, the Atlanta TE has a very forituitous matchup against a New England defense that has been vulnerable to the tight end position all season. As we near the halfway point, New England is giving up the 5th most receiving YPG (66.8) and the 9th most receptions per game (6.0) to opposing TEs. In week 8, the Cleveland Browns tight end duo of Harold Fannin (6/62/1) and David Njoku (4/37/1) combined for 10 receptions and 99 yards receiving to go with a pair of TD scores.

Suggested Bet:

Kyle Pitts o44.5 Rec Yards (-114)

Kyle Pitts o3.5 Receptions (-178)
Kyle Pitts 5+ ALT Receptions (+117)
Kyle Pitts 6+ ALT Receptions (+222)

QB Drake Maye

Drake May is 5^th in the league in passing yards, averaging 253 yards per game, 8.96 YPA and a 75.2% completion rate. He’s thrown 15 TDs and 3 interceptions. He’s also seen more production on the ground as of late, running for 50+ yards in 2 straight games. He’s now averaging 31.3 rushing yards per game on the season. He’ll face a Falcons defense that ranks 8^th best in EPA/Pass allowed and has only allowed 149.1 passing yards per game (least in the league). However, Tua completed 20 of 26 passes for 205 yards and 4 touchdowns last week in a blowout victory, not great. They blitz at the highest rate in the league (44.9%) and are 10^th in pressure rate (41.1%). When Maye is blitzed, he’s averaging 8.82 YPA and a 73.1% completion rate, ranking #1 in QB rating against the blitz. The Falcons are also running the highest rate of single-high safeties (72%). Maye averages 9.75 YPA and a 75% completion rate against single-high. The Falcons have the 3^rd lowest pass rate over expected allowed, meaning defenses tend to attack them via the ground. However, the Patriots are 7^th in pass rate over expected on offense and Rhamondre is dealing with a toe injury. In terms of the running game, the Falcons are allowing the 12^th most rushing yards to QB. Out of the QBs they have faced that use their feet, Josh Allen ran for 42 yards (O/U 34.5), Mariota ran for 20 (O/U 34.5), McCarthy ran for 25 (O/U 19.5) and Baker ran for 39 (O/U 15.5). This could be another spot for Maye to use his legs after having success in the past few weeks, averaging 8 attempts per game over the past 3.

Suggested Pick:

Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)

Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson/Treveyon Henderson/Terrell Jennings

Rhamondre averages 34.9 rushing yards per game on 3.36 YPC. He’s only rushed for over 40 yards in 2 of 8 games. Stevenson did not practice Wednesday with a toe injury, and they promoted Terrell Jennings to the 53-man roster, not a great sign for Stevenson’s playing availability. If Rhamondre is forced to sit out, Henderson and Jennings would be expected to split work. Henderson rushed 10 times for 75 yards last week, he finally had an explosive run of 27 yards. His 1 blemish was a fumble he lost. Whoever the RB is, they will face a Falcons defense that ranks 7^th worst in EPA/Rush and have allowed the 12^th most rushing yards per game (126.4). On a per carry basis, they allow 4.56 yards, 10^th most. Against man/gap concepts, the Falcons allow the 2^nd highest success rate (63%) and the 7^th most YPC (4.92). Against zone concept, they allow the 14^th lowest success rate (44.4%) and the 11^th fewest YPC (3.88). 60.4% of Treveyon’s attempts have been in man/gap, 56.6% for Rhamondre, and 6 of 7 for Terrell. The Falcons also have the 3^rd lowest pass rate over expected allowed, meaning offenses tend to attack them via the ground. Lines aren’t up yet, but I’d monitor injuries as the week goes on.

Suggested Pick:

Monitor Injury Status

Under 11.5 Yards Longest Rush (-130)

WR Stefon Diggs

Diggs averages 58.8 receiving yards per game, 2.60 YPRR and 27% TPRR. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.8%. Diggs has lined up out wide on 58% of his routes and 42% from the slot. The Falcons are 11^th best in EPA/Pass allowed to wide + slot targets and are allowing the 3^rd least receiving yards per game to these alignments. They blitz at the highest rate in the league (44.9%) and are 10^th in pressure rate (41.1%). When Maye is blitzed, Diggs averages 3.21 YPRR, 31% TPRR and a 23.5% 1^st-read rate. The Falcons are also running the highest rate of single-high safeties (72%). Diggs averages 3.21 YPRR, 26% TPRR and 21.8% 1^st-read rate against single-high. The Falcons force the 3^rd lowest pass rate over expected, meaning offenses tend to run the ball against them. However, the Patriots are 7^th in offensive pass rate over expected and their starting RB (Rhamondre Stevenson) is dealing with an injury. The Patriots are 5.5-point favorites and O/U is a modest 44.5.

Suggested Pick:

Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Anytime Touchdown (+170)

WR Kayshon Boutte

Boutte is averaging 53.9 receiving yards per game, 2.10 YPRR and 14% TPRR. He’s 3^rd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 15.2%. Boutte has primarily lined up out wide, at an 88.3% rate. The Falcons are 10^th best in EPA/Pass allowed to wide targets and allow the 4^th fewest receiving yards to that alignment. They blitz at the highest rate in the league (44.9%) and are 10^th in pressure rate (41.1%). Boutte averages 2.00 YPRR, 16% TPRR and a 13.7% 1^st-read rate against the blitz. The Falcons are also running the highest rate of single-high safeties (72%). Boutte averages 2.10 YPRR, 17% TPRR and a 16.8% 1^st-read rate against single-high. The Falcons force the 3^rd lowest pass rate over expected, meaning offenses tend to run the ball against them. However, the Patriots are 7^th in offensive pass rate over expected and their starting RB (Rhamondre Stevenson) is dealing with an injury. The Patriots are 5.5-point favorites and O/U is a modest 44.5.

Suggested Pick:

Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Hunter Henry

Henry is averaging 39.6 receiving yards per game, 1.55 YPRR and has been targeted on 17% of his routes. He’s 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 17.1%. Henry lines up all over, 44.6% from the slot, 33.3% from inline, and 20.1% from out wide. He’ll face a Falcons defense that ranks 8^th best in EPA/Pass allowed and they are allowing the fewest receiving yards and receptions to TEs. They blitz at the highest rate in the league (44.9%) and are 10^th in pressure rate (41.1%). Henry averages 2.20 YPRR, 23% TPRR and a 21.6% 1^st-read rate. The Falcons are also running the highest rate of single-high safeties (72%). Henry averages 1.66 YPRR, 17% TPRR and a 18.8% 1^st-read rate against single-high. The Falcons force the 3^rd lowest pass rate over expected, meaning offenses tend to run the ball against them. However, the Patriots are 7^th in offensive pass rate over expected and their starting RB (Rhamondre Stevenson) is dealing with an injury. The Patriots are 5.5-point favorites and O/U is a modest 44.5.

Suggested Pick:

Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Best Bet:
Lean: 
Score Prediction 

Anytime TD

Best Play (Patriots):  Stefon Diggs  +170

Diggs was not productive from a receiving yard perspective last week against the Browns, but he was targeted 3 times in the redzone and ended up with 1 TD. He’s now been targeted 8 times in the redzone the past 5 weeks, compared to 0 targets in the redzone the first 3 weeks. The Falcons haven’t been any easy matchup, but I like the splits for Diggs vs the Falcons scheme and for Maye to connect with his WR.

Best Play (Falcons):  Bijan Robinson  -130

It's hard to not love Bijan Robinson for an anytime TD in any week, but I especailly like him here in this spot. He Atanta RB has to be playing with a major chip on his shoulder this Sunday after being shortchanged with the amount of touches he was given last week. Bijan has found the end zone 4 times this season, and 3 of those have come in his L4 games. He did not score last week, and I expect to find pay dirt this Sunday.

First TD Scorer:

Longshot Play (Patriots):  Stefon Diggs  +900

Same analysis as anytime TD, the matchup isn’t great against the Falcons who are 11^th best in EPA/Pass allowed to wide + slot targets, but Tua threw for 4 TDs last week in this matchup. Lets find your WR1 early Maye!

Longshot (Falcons):  Kyle Pitts  +1300

Just like everyone else in the football word, I'm well aware that Kyle Pitts has only found the end zone one occasion this season, but he was averaging just 5.6 targets in his first 5 games of the season. In contrast, Pitts has been targeted 10 and 9 times over his past 2 games for an average of 9.5 TPG. I like his chances in this longshot spot for some positive TD regression.

Parlay #1 (Patriots) +600

Drake Maye Over 28.5 Rushing Yards

Stefon Diggs Over 49.5 Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown

Parlay #1  (Falcons):  +360  DK

Bijan Robinson o37.5 Rec Yards

Drake London 60+ Rec Yards

Kyle Pitts 4+ Receptions

Parlay #2  (Falcons):  +5000  DK

Bijan Robinson 60+ Rec Yards

Drake London 70+ Rec Yards

Kyle Pitts 5+ Receptions

Kyle Pitts Anytime TD

QB Justin Herbert 

Justin Herbert enters Week 9 in top form, displaying excellent decision-making against both man and zone. He’s averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and has posted 3+ passing TDs in back-to-back games, including efficient production from a clean pocket. Tennessee’s defense, though fundamentally sound, struggles to generate pressure without blitzing — ranking 25th in pressure rate (29.4%) despite sending four or more rushers on nearly every third down. Against two-high looks (a Titans specialty), Herbert has been surgical — 6.9 YPA with a 110.8 passer rating, and only one turnover-worthy play all year. His chemistry with Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen on option routes and deep outs should stretch Tennessee horizontally, forcing their safeties to commit early. The Titans have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of their last five games, and opposing quarterbacks have completed 73% of throws inside the red zone against them. Herbert’s current form and Tennessee’s bend-but-don’t-break secondary set the stage for another multi-score game, particularly through short-area precision and play-action shots.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 2.5 Pass TDs (+180)

RB Kimani Vidal

Kimani Vidal continues to assert himself as the Chargers’ feature back, combining patience and power between the tackles. The Titans’ defense has been shredded on the ground — allowing the second-most adjusted yards before contact (2.78) and 119.4 rushing yards per game, second-highest in the league. Their front is strong against downhill runs but vulnerable to zone cuts and misdirection — both of which fit Vidal’s style perfectly. Vidal has handled 74% of backfield snaps over the last three weeks and has run routes on nearly 40% of Herbert’s dropbacks, ensuring involvement even in neutral scripts. Tennessee’s linebackers have surrendered the fourth-most broken tackles on first contact this year, suggesting Vidal can turn modest runs into explosive gains. Given the Chargers’ red-zone efficiency and Vidal’s growing role in early-down and goal-line situations, he profiles as the most reliable touchdown bet of the group.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (-110)

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey’s chemistry with Justin Herbert has evolved into a central part of the Chargers’ offensive identity. The rookie’s spatial awareness against zone coverage is elite — he’s averaging 1.28 yards per route run and a 22% target rate against two-high shells, the exact coverage structure Tennessee lives in. With the Titans dropping their safeties deeper than almost any team in the league, McConkey’s precision on stick and pivot routes becomes critical to sustaining drives. The Titans have allowed the ninth-highest completion percentage (72.1%) to slot receivers this year, with opponents frequently exploiting their nickel rotation. Expect McConkey to see frequent targets on option routes, particularly on third down, where he leads the Chargers in conversions. Tennessee’s zone tendencies open up short and intermediate windows where McConkey thrives. He’s Herbert’s comfort read against soft zones and should clear this number comfortably in a high-volume outing.

Suggested Bet: 

‘O’ 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Keenan Allen

Even in reduced volume last week, Keenan Allen remains Herbert’s most trusted deep-intermediate target. Tennessee’s split-safety shells are designed to protect the deep middle, but their cornerbacks have allowed chunk plays outside the numbers. The Titans rank second-worst in yards per route allowed (2.58) to boundary receivers, and Allen’s crisp route breaks routinely exploit those defensive soft spots. Allen averages 2.12 yards per route run and draws a 27% target rate versus two-high coverages. Expect Herbert to test the Titans on sideline digs and fades, especially off play-action where Allen can attack linebackers biting on Vidal’s runs. The Chargers will likely design at least one shot play for him out of motion to isolate him on an island. Tennessee’s corners have allowed 11 completions of 25+ yards over their last four games. Allen’s timing and route discipline make him the most likely Charger to break one open early.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 18.5 Yard Longest Reception (-110)

TE Oronde Gadsden

Oronde Gadsden has quietly become a focal point of the Chargers’ offense, giving them a true seam-stretching tight end presence. He’s averaging 2.39 yards per route run against two-high coverage — elite efficiency for his position — and has caught 85% of his targets since Week 6. Tennessee’s linebackers and safeties have struggled defending the middle of the field, surrendering 43.4 receiving yards per game to tight ends despite limiting completions. With McConkey and Allen drawing coverage attention underneath, Gadsden benefits from favorable matchups against zone-turned safeties and deep hook defenders. His catch radius and ability to box out defenders on in-breaking routes make him a consistent mismatch in Tennessee’s defensive structure. Expect Herbert to target him on vertical seams and intermediate crossers, especially in play-action situations. Tennessee’s soft spots lie between the hashes. Gadsden’s recent route share and efficiency metrics suggest another productive outing working up the seam against a defense that leaks chunk plays to athletic tight ends.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 48.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

QB Cam Ward
Cam Ward continues to underwhelm this season, but there have been hints of progress. Ward has completed a league-low 57.7% of his passes (158 of 274), accumulating 1,615 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. His advanced metrics further highlight his struggles: 5.89 yards per attempt (30th among 31 qualified QBs), a 71.7 passer rating, and a troubling 10.7% sack rate. Among quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks, Ward ranks 31st in completion rate (57.7%), 24th in yards per game (201.9), 30th in Adjusted Completion % (71.6%), and 30th in 1st Read% (59.1%). While his 8.0 aDOT (13th) suggests he's attempting deeper throws, his inability to connect on them consistently is not going to translate into production. Last week, Ward threw for 259 yards with one touchdown and one interception last week (22 of 38). He has managed to surpass 250 passing yards in three of his last four games, but has yet to throw multiple passing touchdowns in any game this season, and has thrown an interception in six consecutive games. His touchdown rate stands at a league-low 1.8%. The Chargers play zone coverage at the 5th highest rate in the league (79.1%), primarily utilizing Cover 3 and Cover 4. This is a significant red flag for Ward, as he ranks 30th among qualified quarterbacks in grading against zone coverage this season. As a thrower this is not a spot I’m looking to back Ward, but we’ve seen him start to use his legs more when plays break down. We get a nice low line this week that I’ll be attacking.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Tony Pollard
Season-to-date, Pollard has recorded 109 carries for 424 yards (3.9 YPC) and 2 touchdowns, adding 18 receptions for 131 yards. While his overall season rushing efficiency, including a 3.89 YPC (28th among 37 qualified RBs) and a low 1.8% explosive run rate (33rd), might seem discouraging, I think this is a potential buy-low spot for him. Last week, Pollard had 11 carries for 44 yards and 0 touchdowns, along with 1 catch for 9 yards. Although Spears out-touched him last week (34-32), the expectation is for a near 50-50 split in touches moving forward. The matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers is decent. While the Chargers rank 16th in rushing yards allowed per game (112.4), they have given up the 6th highest yards per carry and the 5th highest explosive run rate. Furthermore, they have allowed the 9th highest rushing success rate (52.2%). Despite a likely negative game script favoring more passing, Tennessee has demonstrated a consistent dedication to the run game. At this point, the Titans are just trying to develop their young franchise QB so even in a negative game script they are committing to the run. I think this is a sneaky buy-low spot for Pollard in a matchup where he can do enough to get over his rushing line.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 36.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Tyjae Spears
For the season, Spears has recorded 23 carries for 126 yards and 1 touchdown, adding 10 catches for 60 yards. Last week was his best, with 9 carries for 59 yards and a touchdown, along with 3 catches for 23 yards. His advanced metrics showcase good efficiency, with a very solid 5.48 yards per carry and a 4.3% explosive run rate. Notably, in a limited sample size, Spears has a 63.6% success rate when running in zone concepts. Typically, I’d be looking at Spears through the air, but I don’t like this matchup for him. The Chargers have been particularly stingy to pass-catching running backs. I’ll likely avoid Spears’ lines this week, but would lean unders.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 2.5 Receptions (-105) - LEAN

WR Elic Ayomanor
Ayomanor has caught 23 of 47 targets (48.9%) for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns this season. Last week marked a season-high in targets for Ayomanor, where he secured 4 catches for 52 yards on 8 targets and nearly connected with Ward on a long 60+ yard touchdown play. His role is predominantly out wide (83.6%), with some slot usage (16.4%) Looking at advanced metrics, Ayomanor holds a 16.4% target share, accounts for 17.2% of the team's receiving yards, averages 12.04 yards per reception, and has a 28.9% air yardage share. Despite these figures, the passer rating when targeting him is a low 75.9, and his 1st Read% is 21.6% The matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers adds another layer of complexity. While the Chargers' defense generally performs well against receivers, they allow the 26th highest out wide receiving yards per game (89.3), 28th highest catch rate (57.8%), and 30th highest passer rating (69.6) to wide receivers. Across the position, the Chargers allow a 59.3% catch rate (24th), 7.1 yards per target (28th), and a 2.7% touchdown rate (27th). With Ridley out, Ayomanor and Dike will get more looks but I don’t love the matchup for Ayomanor, who relies on big play ability. Ward just hasn’t been able to connect on many big plays this season.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Chimere Dike
Dike has seen a significant increase in playing time (thanks Tyler Lockett), on the field for a season-high 92.9% of dropbacks last week, and has delivered two solid performances in a row. Season-to-date, he boasts an efficient 20 catches on 30 targets (66.6%) for 189 yards and 1 touchdown. Last week, he finished with 7 catches for 93 yards on 8 targets. Dike operates predominantly from the slot (73.7%) with some out-wide usage (25.1%) His advanced statistics show a 10.6% target share, 11.7% of team receiving yards, 9.45 yards per reception, and an impressive 4.60 yards after catch per reception. The passer rating when targeting Dike is a respectable 83.8, with a 13.6% 1st Read%. He also commands a 14.0% air yardage share. Furthermore, Dike remarkably leads the entire league in all-purpose yards with 1,294, highlighting his versatility across various parts of the game (receiving, rushing and returning). The Chargers allow the 23rd most receiving yards to the slot (58.5), the 24th highest catch rate (68.3%), and critically, the 10th highest 1st read rate (81.0%) to slot receivers. Not an overwhelmingly nice matchup for Dike and this offense. While the Titans struggle to reach the red zone (league's lowest rate), Dike's impressive 31.6% target share in the red zone (tied for seventh in the league) across both receiving and rushing plays is great to see. Although the matchup doesn’t jump off the page, the recent involvement cannot be ignored. We’ll take advantage of this lower line before it jumps or Ridley makes things more complicated.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
Okonkwo has been efficient with his targets, catching 27 of 37 passes (72.9%) for 271 yards, but he has yet to score a touchdown. Last week, he secured 4 catches for 53 yards on 5 targets. His formation usage is split between inline (39.8%), slot (46.1%), and out wide (12.9%). His advanced stats reveal an ability to gain yards after the catch, averaging 10 yards per reception and a solid 6.4 yards after the catch per reception, with a lower 4.8 aDOT. As we’ve mentioned before, he has been used more as a security blanket this season. The Chargers' defense is stingy against tight ends, allowing the 3rd fewest receptions per game (3.75), 4th fewest targets (5.50), and 5th fewest receiving yards per game (37.8) to the position. Adding to the challenge, Gunnar Helm scored a touchdown last week and continues to be involved. This isn’t the matchup to be backing Chig.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-145)

I think both teams could have success on offense here. Titans have scored less than 17 points in 3 straight weeks but the Chargers have allowed 27+ points in 3/L4 games. Give me the over here. There is no such thing as homefield advantage for Herbert holding a 10-10 Home record compared to 11-7 on the road since 2023. Its such a tough spread game to bet so I'll lean the Chargers team total instead

Best Bet: Over 43.5 -120
Lean: Chargers 'O'26.5 Pts -142
Score Prediction Titans 23 Chargers 27

Anytime TD

Best Bet (Chargers): Kimani Vidal -110

Kimani Vidal continues to assert himself as the Chargers’ feature back, combining patience and power between the tackles. The Titans’ defense has been shredded on the ground — allowing the second-most adjusted yards before contact (2.78) and 119.4 rushing yards per game, second-highest in the league. Their front is strong against downhill runs but vulnerable to zone cuts and misdirection — both of which fit Vidal’s style perfectly. Vidal has handled 74% of backfield snaps over the last three weeks and has run routes on nearly 40% of Herbert’s dropbacks, ensuring involvement even in neutral scripts. Tennessee’s linebackers have surrendered the fourth-most broken tackles on first contact this year, suggesting Vidal can turn modest runs into explosive gains. Given the Chargers’ red-zone efficiency and Vidal’s growing role in early-down and goal-line situations, he profiles as the most reliable touchdown bet of the group.

Longshot (Titans): Chimere Dike +380
His redzone usage is elite and without Ridley both Ayomanor and Dike elevate to the top options in this offense. Dike's impressive 31.6% target share in the red zone (tied for seventh in the league) is thanks to his unique usage in both the passing and rushing game. Add to that, he could also score as a returner!

First TD Scorer:

Longshot (Chargers): Oronde Gadsden First TD +1200

Herbert’s early-down tendencies align with Gadsden’s skill set. On scripted drives, Herbert throws to tight ends on 26% of first-quarter dropbacks, with over half of those routes being seams, fades, or crossers off play-action. Expect the Chargers to leverage that tendency again this week — using motion from Keenan Allen or McConkey to pull safeties outward, freeing up Gadsden on a back-shoulder or post up the hash. The Chargers open games with aggressive play-calling, ranking third in first-quarter scoring rate (47%), and Gadsden’s red-zone chemistry with Herbert is peaking. Against a Titans defense that has allowed four touchdowns to tight ends in their last five games, the matchup tilts strongly in his favor.

Longshot (Titans): Gunnar Helm +3000
We saw Helm score his first touchdown last week and we've seen more usage from the rookie over the past couple of weeks. Reports show that Ward and Helm spend a lot of time together and have good chemistry on the field. It seems like this team is turning over a new leaf and letting this rookie class shine.

Parlay #1 (Titans): +442
Tony Pollard over 40.5 Rush Yards
Cam Ward over 5.5 Rush Yards
Chig Okonkwo under 3.5 receptions

Parlay #2 (Titans): +966
Chimere Dike 60+ Receiving Yards
Chimere Dike TD
Tony Pollard 25+ Rush Yards

QB Caleb WIlliams
Williams and the Bears are coming off a disappointing game losing by 14 to a Lamar Jacksonless Ravens team. This week they will be facing the Bengals who allow the 6th most completions (23.0), 7th most pass attempts (33.75), and 4th most passing yards (263.3) per game, while also giving up the 2nd most passing touchdowns (2.37). Their defense has remained stingy against rushing QBs, allowing the 2nd fewest rushing yards (8.3) per game, so Williams’ legs might not be as impactful this week. Bengals defense over the last 4 weeks have ran Cover 3 a ridiculous 44.2% of the time and Single High 65%. There have been 23 QB’s with 70+ DB’s against Cover 3 and this is where WIlliams ranks by category against it. Completion % (57.0%) #22/23 QB Rating (88.5) #14/23 YPA (6.97) #15/23. Now while doing so he has the 2nd MOST DB’s against this coverage so teams are throwing it his way often and I expect this Bengals defense to do the same. When the Bengals have ran Cover 3 this year they have allowed a 89.8 QB Rating which is very good ranking #8/32 to go with a 69% CR% ranking #10/32. This is a spot where the Bengals could have success. Also this is what Caleb Williams ranks against Single High out of the 31 QB’s with 70+ DB’s against it. Completion % (59.7%) #23/31 QB Rating (93.4) #15/31 YPA (7.66) #15/31. This Bengals defense is not good at all but what they will throw at Williams is something he has trouble against at times. 

RB D’Andre Swift
Swift over his last 3 games has had 108,124,45 rushing yards and this week he will be facing the Bengals who have allowed a league high 143.6 rushing yards per game to RB’s allowing 226 Att (2nd Highest) and 5.08 YPC (3rd Worst). Swift has had 100 carries on the year and a whopping 77 of them have come when Williams is Under Center. The Bengals on Under center formation runs have allowed 5.16 YPC (3rd Highest) and 2.72 YBC (2nd Highest). 77% of Swifts rushing is where the Bengals have gotten crushed. I think Swift could be in for another great week. 

Suggested Pick 

Over Rushing Yards

WR DJ Moore 
Moore after the Bye Week did really well against a Ravens defense who have done well against wideout receivers having 4 receptions for 73 yards. Now this week he will be facing the Bengals who are a very similar matchup allowing 101.6 rec yds ranking #15/32 teams. Now best believe the Bengals will be running a ton of Cover 3 and Single High. Moore against Cover 3 over the last 4 weeks holds a 10.5% TGT% ranking 5th on the team averaging 1.88 YPRR catching 5 of his 6 targets. His aDOT is 11.2 and is averaging 18.80 YPR. Now against Single High he holds a 14.2% TGT% ranking 2nd on the team averaging 1.87 YPRR catching 8 of his 11 targets. His aDOT is 10.7. Moore over the L4 games has ran out of the wideout 60% and 38% out to the slot against Cover 3 & Single High averaging 2.73 YPRR out of the Wideout and 0.63 YPRR out of the slot. With how bad the Bengals are defensively they are decent against wideout receivers when running these coverages and Williams has a very low completion% against them. Moore has become more of a deep ball threat for this squad and on balls thrown 13+ down field the Bengals have allowed just a 44.3% CR ranking #10/32. I like under receptions here

Suggested Pick

Under Receptions 

WR Rome Odunze 
This guy has been extremely inconsistent having 4 games of 60+ Rec yds and 3 games of below 37 yards. Now last week he dominated this Ravens defense catching 7 of 10 targets for 114 Yds. Bengals will be running a ton of Cover 3 and Single High. This year against that Odunze holds a 21.3% TGT% #1 on the team. Odunze on the season has ran out of the wideout 64.5% of the time this year but when specifically going against Cover 3 or Single High that jumps to 41.6%. The Bengals when in these defensive schemes have allowed 1.83 YPRR to slot receivers but a very low and concerning 64.5% CR% which ranks #8/32 and he is a deep ball threat as well having a 13.6 aDOT. This is a spot where I don't trust Caleb WIliams on deep throws as he had a 52.2% off target throw% last year which ranked 39/41 QB’s. He has gotten much better this year on it but still not good. Staying away from high aDOT guys this week 

Suggested Pick 

TE Colston Loveland
Finally we're starting to see Loveland take some work from Kmet. Last week Kmet was out which led to Loveland getting a season high 80.6% snapshare but even before that bye week he had a 67.2% snap share and Kmet had a 40.3%. Kmet might not play this week but either way he is slowly becoming TE 1 for this Bears offense. As I've stated in all my other write ups Bengals will be running a ton of Cover 3 and Single High. Loveland over the last 2 weeks has mixed up his alignments running out of the wideout 31.8% Slot 36.5% and Inline 31.6% and holding a 19.2% TGT% with a 6.0 aDOT against those schemes. When going up against those coverages his most productive is when he is in the Slot and Inline having a 33.3% TGT% out of both alignments. The Bengals are EXTREMELY vulnerable to inline receivers allowing a ridiculous 2.82 YPRR and while allowing 14 receptions for an aDOT of just 3.3 they have allowed 14.93 YPR when in Cover 3 and Single High. Yeah they are giving up a league high 11.36 yards after the catch. I think Loveland could have a breakout week as this Bengals team really struggles with low aDOT stuff. As a whole on 1-4 aDOT against Slot & Inline receivers the Bengals have allowed a league high 11.15 YPR on 34 receptions while allowing 47.4 Rec Yds per game which is the 3rd HIGHEST.

Suggested Pick 

Over and Ladder it 

QB Joe Flacco

Through 3 games with the Bengals, Flacco is averaging 261.3 passing yards per game, 6.22 YPA and a 64.3% completion rate. He’s thrown 7 TDs and 0 interceptions. Joe Flacco is dealing with an AC joint injury that may impact his ability to throw, this will be something to monitor. During his time with the Bengals, he has the fastest time to throw (2.38), which has helped this struggling offensive line. He’ll face a Bears defense that ranks 18^th in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 13^th fewest passing yards per game. The Bears have the 4^th lowest pressure rate this season (32.3%). When not pressured, Flacco is averaging 7.08 YPA and a 71.6% completion rate with the Bengals. If Flacco is unable to go, Jake Browning would step back in, which would be a massive downgrade for this offense.

Suggested Pick:

Wait for clarity on the injury report; if he’s a full go with no limitations, take his overs

RB Chase Brown

In the first 6 weeks of the season, Chase Brown averaged 33.7 rushing yards per game on 2.73 YPC. In the past 2, he’s averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game on 7.87 YPC. However, Brown’s workload has shrunk. He handled 82.3% of the carries from weeks 1 to 5. In the past 3 weeks, he’s only handled 59.3% of the carries. He’ll face a Bears defense that ranks 15^th in EPA/Rush allowed on the season but are allowing the 6^th most rushing yards per game. They have been better as of late, allowing 4.16 YPC the last 3 weeks compared to 6.15 YPC in the first 5 weeks. They are allowing the 7^th highest success rate against man/gap concept (57.4%), compared to the 16^th highest success rate against zone (45.8%). 55.7% of Brown’s carries have been man/gap, where he’s averaging 3.78 YPC and a 48.1% success rate. In zone concept, he’s averaging 4.24 YPC and a 47.6% success rate. In terms of the receiving game, Brown is averaging 3.1 receptions and 15.8 yards per game. The Browns rank 4^th worst in EPA/Pass to the backfield but are only allowing 23.1 receiving yards per game to the position. His receiving yards line feels a bit low, especially as Flacco is dealing with a shoulder injury and may be limited to low aDOT throws or will be ruled out, Browning loves to target his RBs.

Suggested Pick:

Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

WR Ja’Marr Chase

In the 3 games since Joe Flacco has taken over at QB, Ja’Marr is averaging 115.3 receiving yards per game, 2.77 YPRR and 43% TPRR. His 1^st-read rate is 52.9%. That compares to 74.8 receiving yards per game, 2.25 YPRR and 26% TPRR in the first 5 games. Chase has lined up 64.6% of the time out wide and 34% from the slot. He’ll face a Bears defense that has allowed the 6^th lowest EPA/Pass allowed to wide + slot alignments, and the 13^th fewest receiving yards per game to those alignments. Joe Flacco is dealing with an AC joint injury that may impact his ability to throw, this will be something to monitor. If he fights through it, he may be limited to short aDOT throws, or he may be held out, going back to Jake Browning would hinder the entire offense. The Bears have the 4^th lowest pressure rate this season (32.3%). When the QB is not pressured, Chase averages 2.97 YPRR and 45% TPRR on the season. With Joe Flacco, these rates increase to 3.53 YPRR and 53% TPRR.

Suggested Pick:

Wait for clarity on Flacco (if in, hard to bet against him)

WR Tee Higgins

In the first 3 games with Joe Flacco at QB, Tee Higgins is averaging 67.3 receiving yards per game, 1.89 YPRR and 17% TPRR. That compares to 31.6 receiving yards per game, 0.99 YPRR and 17% TPRR in the first 5 games. Tee has lined up out wide on 86.5% of his routes. He’ll face a Bears defense that ranks number 1 in EPA/pass allowed to wide alignment, as they have allowed just 85.9 receiving yards per game to that alignment (3^rd fewest). Joe Flacco is dealing with an AC joint injury that may impact his ability to throw, this will be something to monitor. If he fights through it, he may be limited to short aDOT throws, or he may be held out, going back to Jake Browning would hinder the entire offense. The Bears have the 4^th lowest pressure rate this season (32.3%). When the QB is not pressured, Tee averages 2.06 YPRR and 22% TPRR on the season. With Joe Flacco, these rates increase to 2.48 YPRR and 18% TPRR.

Suggested Pick:

Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

TE Noah Fant

With Gesicki out for the first week in week 7, Noah Fant ran a route on 73.5% of dropbacks. That’s a huge jump from his season long 30.8% route participation rate prior to week 7. Fant caught 4 of 4 targets for 44 receiving yards. He averaged 1.22 YPRR and was targeted on 11% of his routes. He also hauled in a touchdown. However, last week we were back to a 3 TE rotation. Fant had a 34.5% route rate, Hudson at 24.1% and Sample at 17.2%. Joe Flacco is dealing with an AC joint injury that may impact his ability to throw, this will be something to monitor. If he fights through it, he may be limited to short aDOT throws, or he may be held out, going back to Jake Browning would hinder the entire offense. It’s hard to trust Fant with the uncertainty at QB at his low route rate.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

I think WIlliams could have trouble and with the unknown status of Flacco I like the under in this spot.

Best Bet: Under 52.5 -140
Lean: Bears 'U' 29.5 Pts -155
Score Prediction Bears 20 Bengals 23

Anytime TD

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) -120

In Flacco’s 3 games with the Bengals, Ja’Marr is averaging 2.77 YPRR, 43% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 52.9% (INSANE). He’s been targeted 7 times from Flacco in the redzone, resulting in 2 touchdowns. This game has a 50.5 O/U, Chase is bound to find the endzone with that type of insane volume!

First TD Scorer:

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) +675

Same analysis as anytime, Joe Flacco absolutely loves to pepper Chase early and often. The Bears allow the 5^th most receiving touchdowns per game to opposing WRs, lets go Chase!

Parlay #1 (Bengals) +332

Joe Flacco Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown

Chase Brown 15+ Receiving Yards

QB Daniel Jones
On the season, Jones has been incredibly efficient, completing 173 of 243 passes (71.2%) for 2,062 yards, 13 touchdowns, and only 3 interceptions, complemented by 30 carries for 86 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. Last week was another stellar performance, with 21 completions on 29 attempts for 272 yards and 3 passing touchdowns, without an interception. His advanced metrics are elite, including an 8.49 yards per attempt, a 109.5 passer rating, and a low 3.4% sack rate. He ranks 3rd in completion rate (71.2%), 6th in yards per game (257.8), and leads the NFL with a 77.4% first-read percentage among qualified quarterbacks. The Steelers run man coverage at the 5th highest rate (37.4%), and Jones ranks 5th in NFL passing grading against man coverage. The Steelers' defensive line generates pressure and they blitz at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL. However, Jones leads the NFL with a remarkable 111.1 passer rating when pressured, completing 61.6% of his passes (2nd) for 7.3 yards per attempt (5th) with 6 touchdowns and not a single interception. Jones has also thrown for 2 or more touchdowns in each of his last four games. With the expectation that Pittsburgh will keep this game competitive, potentially even pulling off an upset, Jones will likely be forced to rely on his arm more than in recent weeks, where game script might have leaned more run-heavy.

 Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-122)

RB Jonathan Taylor
Taylor continues his elite season, leading the league with 143 carries for 850 yards (5.9 YPC) and an impressive 12 rushing touchdowns. He's also been highly effective in the passing game, catching 25 of 27 targets for 206 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns. Last week was another monster performance, with 12 carries for 153 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns, plus 2 catches for 21 yards and a receiving touchdown. His advanced metrics remain stellar, ranking 2nd in YPC (5.94), 4th in explosive run rate (8.4%), and 4th in yards after contact per attempt (2.99) among qualified running backs. Taylor commands an elite 83.2% of his backfield touches, the highest rate in the league. This matchup could set up well for Taylor. Taylor ranks 1st among running backs in yards after contact per carry and the Steelers’ defense ranks 7th highest in yards after contact allowed per carry. However, the Steelers have been particularly stingy against rushing touchdowns, allowing just one to a running back over their past five games. While no one wants to fade JT in any matchup, it does look like there is value on his unders.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 95.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Michael Pittman Jr.
On the season, Pittman has been a model of consistency and efficiency, catching 43 of 55 passes (74.4%) for 446 yards and 6 touchdowns. Last week, he was great with 8 catches for 95 yards on 9 targets, including a touchdown. Pittman primarily aligns out wide (70.5%) but also sees significant action from the slot (27.5%). His advanced metrics are excellent, boasting a 22.2% target share and 22.2% air yardage share, solidifying his role as the clear top target in the Colts' passing attack. He averages 10.37 yards per reception and generates 3.98 yards after catch per reception, along with an impressive 129.2 passer rating when targeted. The Steelers have a history of allowing big games to top wide receivers, as evidenced by performances from Ja'Marr Chase (16 catches, 161 yards, 1 TD), Justin Jefferson (10-126-0), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (8-103-0), Garrett Wilson (7-95-1), Tee Higgins (6-96-1), Cooper Kupp (7-90-0), and Jordan Addison (4-114-0). Furthermore, the Steelers blitz at the third-highest rate in the league (35.5%), and Pittman is the clear leader in targets (23.2%) against the blitz for the Colts. Pittman has been such a nice surprise this season and there is no reason it won’t continue here in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 50.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Josh Downs
This year, Downs has been very efficient, catching 29 of 36 targets (80.6%) for 256 yards and 2 touchdowns. Last week, he secured 3 catches on 3 targets for 39 yards and a touchdown. Downs primarily operates from the slot (78.8%). His advanced metrics include a 16.8% target share and 14.4% of the team's receiving yards, along with an 8.83 YPR and a 114.8 passer rating when targeted. He has shown a high target rate against both blitz (30.2% of routes) and man coverage (28.6% of routes). Given that the Steelers blitz at a high rate and utilize man coverage frequently, these could be favorable for Downs. However, he does not participate in two-wide receiver sets, which limits how much he’s on the field. With a guy that is on the field less than 60% of the time, his reception prop at 4.5 just seems too high.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions (-150)

TE Tyler Warren
This season, Warren has been great as a rookie, catching 37 of 50 targets (74%) for 492 yards and 3 touchdowns. Last week, he finished with 4 catches for 53 yards on 5 targets. They like to move Warren all around the field (inline 43.1%, slot 39.2%, out wide 13.4%). His advanced metrics are excellent, boasting 13.3 yards per reception, an impressive 8.1 yards after the catch per reception, and a robust 124.8 passer rating when targeted. The matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers for tight ends is simply elite. The Steelers have allowed the 4th most targets (8.71 per game), the 6th most receptions (6.43 per game), and the most receiving yards to tight ends in the league (79.3 per game). Recent performances against the Steelers by tight ends further underscore this "smash spot." We just saw Tucker Kraft of the Packers destroy this defense with 7 catches for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns. Other tight ends like Hunter Henry (8-90-2), Harold Fannin (7-81-0), and Noah Fant (4-44-1) have also had strong outings against this secondary. As long as the game remains competitive and the Colts don't entirely run away with it in the second half, Warren is in line for a huge day. This looks like a smash spot for Warren and it definitely has ladder potential.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
70+ Receiving Yards (+155)
80+ Receiving Yards (+225)

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers averages 212.7 passing yards per game, 7.16 YPA and a 68.3% completion rate. He’s thrown 16 TDs, which is behind only Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford, who both have 17. He’ll face a Colts defense that ranks 19^th in EPA/Pass and they are allowing the 4^th most passing yards per game (252). The Colts blitz at the 11^th lowest rate (23.4%) and have the 8^th lowest pressure rate (33.1%). Rodgers averages 7.20 YPA and a 75.7% completion rate when not pressured. The Colts top 3 coverages are Cover 3 (26.3%), Cover 1 (20.9%) and Cover 2 (16.9%). Against these 3 coverages, Rodgers averages 7.33 YPA and a 63.9% completion rate. The Steelers are 3-point underdogs and this game has a 50.5 O/U. The Colts have forced the 10^th highest pass rate over expected. The Colts are allowing the 4^th most passing yards per game on targets 20+ yards downfield. Rodgers has completed 8 of 22 attempts for 36.7 passing yards per game on targets 20+ yards downfield. The Colts have been susceptible to passing TDs against above average QBs. Herbert threw 3, Brissett, Stafford 3 and Bo Nix 3. The QBs that went under were rookie Cam Ward (twice) and Geno Smith. I like Rodgers’ touchdown passes.

Suggested Pick:

Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-120)

RB Jaylen Warren

Warren averages 62.2 rushing yards per game on 4.49 YPC this season. Last week, Warren took 13 of the 18 team carries, and had a 51.3% route participation rate. In week 7, Warren accounted for 16 of 19 team carries and had a 37.1% route participation rate. Despite Gainwell playing well in Warren’s absence, Jaylen has regained his bell cow role. He’ll face a Colts defense that has allowed the 8^th fewest rushing yards per game (93.1) and the 15^th fewest YPC (4.26). 78.3% of Warren’s rush attempts have been zone concept. He’s averaging 4.80 YPC and a 55.4% success rate in zone. The Colts allow the 6^th highest success rate (50.6%) and the 15^th most YPC (4.16) against zone scheme. In the receiving game, Warren has a season-long 37.6% route rate, averages 32.5 yards per game, 2.57 YPRR and 29% TPRR. The Colts are 7^th best in EPA/Pass to backfield targets but allow the 12^th most receiving yards per game to the backfield (29.1). The Colts blitz at the 11^th lowest rate (23.4%) and have the 8^th lowest pressure rate (33.1%). Warren averages 2.40 YPRR and a 36% TPRR when Rodgers is not pressured.

Suggested Pick:

20+ Receiving Yards (-135)

WR DK Metcalf

DK is averaging 65.9 receiving yards per game, 2.34 YPRR and 22% TPRR. He leads the team with a 27.3% 1^st-read rate. He’s lined up out wide on 80.7% of his routes and in the slot on 18.8%. The Colts allow the 5^th fewest YPRR (1.72) to wide alignment but the 6^th most to the slot (1.91). The Colts blitz at the 11^th lowest rate (23.4%) and have the 8^th lowest pressure rate (33.1%). DK averages 3.49 YPRR, 30% TPRR and a 27.2% 1^st-read rate when Rodgers is not pressured. The Colts top 3 coverages are Cover 3 (26.3%), Cover 1 (20.9%) and Cover 2 (16.9%). DK averages 2.93 YPRR, 28% TPRR and a 33.3% 1^st-read rate against these 3 coverages. The Colts have also allowed the 3^rd most receiving yards per game to the 1^st-read, a bullish sign for the Steelers WR1. The Colts are allowing the 8^th most receiving touchdowns to WR. DK has scored a touchdown in 5 of last 6 games.

Suggested Pick:

Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Anytime TD (+150)

WR Calvin Austin

Calvin Austin is averaging 33.4 receiving yards per game, 1.36 YPRR and 18% TPRR. He’s 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 20%. He’s lined up in the slot on 51.2% of his routes and in the slot on 47.2%. The Colts allow the 6^th most YPRR to the slot (1.91) and the 5^th fewest YPRR to wide alignment (1.72). The Colts blitz at the 11^th lowest rate (23.4%) and have the 8^th lowest pressure rate (33.1%). Austin averages 1.39 YPRR, 22% TPRR and an 18.4% 1^st-read rate when Rodgers is not pressured. The Colts top 3 coverages are Cover 3 (26.3%), Cover 1 (20.9%) and Cover 2 (16.9%). Austin averages 1.10 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 21.9% 1^st-read rate against these 3 coverages.

Suggested Pick:

Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-114) *Lean

TE Jonnu Smith/Pat Freiermuth

Jonnu Smith has run a route on 59.9% of dropbacks, averaging 19.1 receiving yards per game, 0.99 YPRR and 21% TPRR. Freiermuth has run a route on 48% of dropbacks, averaging 28.6 receiving yards per game, 1.83 YPRR and 19% TPRR. Most of Pat’s success came in week 7 against the Bengals, with a 111 receiving yard performance, so these numbers feel a little skewed. Pittsburgh has also run Darnell Washington out there at times, so it’s tough to predict who will produce any given week. They’ll face a Colts defense that has allowed the 2^nd most receiving yards and receptions to TE. The Colts top 3 coverages are Cover 3 (26.3%), Cover 1 (20.9%) and Cover 2 (16.9%). Against these 3 coverages, Freiermuth has been the most productive, averaging 2.64 YPRR and 22% TPRR. That compares to 0.70 YPRR and 19% TPRR for Jonnu Smith. Despite the bullish matchup, it’s hard to trust any of these guys as changes week over week.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

This Steelers team by just looking at stats should be below .500 but ole Mike Tomlin is doing Mike Tomlin things and thats figuring ou tways to win football games. The Colts are 6-1 and have the best record in football. I could see eithier team winning this one so i'll put my pick on a shootout type of game and take the over

Best Bet: Over 49.5 -140
Lean: Steelers +3.5 -112
Score Prediction Colts 27 Steelers 24

Anytime TD

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +150

Dk has scored 5 of the last 6 weeks as he’s the clear number 1 option for Rodgers. The Colts are allowing the 8^th most receiving touchdowns to WR. The Colts have also allowed the 3^rd most receiving yards per game to the 1^st-read, a bullish sign for the Steelers WR1. He also has positive splits against the Colts primary coverages.

Michael Pittman (Colts) +165
Pittman already 6 touchdowns on the season, which ties a career-high! He's a clear go-to option in the redzone and this PIT will likely sell out ot try and stop Taylor. We have seen other top WR's torch this defense. We could be in for that again if PIT's offense can keep up.

First TD Scorer:

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +1200

Same analysis as anytime, this is crazy value in my opinion for a guy that’s scored in 5 of the last 6 weeks and has a redzone target in 6 straight. DK has yet to score in the 1^st quarter this season but that can happen any given week, bullish matchup against the Colts here!

Tyler Warren (Colts) +900
If you can't tell by now, I'm a huge Warren fan this week. Love his consistent involvement and the matchup. We are coming off a game where Kraft scored the first touchdown and Warren has scored in 4 of the last 5 weeks. Big game loading...

Parlay #1 (Steelers) +320

Aaron Rodgers 2+ Passing Touchdowns

DK Metcalf Over 58.5 Receiving Yards

DK Metcalf Anytime Touchdown

Parlay #2 (Colts) +395
Jonathan Taylor under 93.5 Rush Yards
Jonathan Taylor TD
Daniel Jones over 1.5 Pass TD's

Parlay #3 (Colts) +1229
Daniel Jones 225+ Pass Yards
Tyler Warren 70+ Receiving Yards
Tyler Warren TD
Michael Pittman TD

QB Mac Jones

Mac Jones faces a difficult matchup against one of the most blitz-heavy defenses in the NFL. The Giants rank second in man coverage rate (38.6%) and fourth in blitz rate (42.5%), relying on pressure and tight coverage to disrupt rhythm passers. Jones has struggled when forced off his first read, averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt and a -5.6% CPOE versus man coverage. The Giants’ pass rush creates contact in just 2.4 seconds on average, collapsing pockets before checkdowns develop. Their disguised blitzes bait quarterbacks into forced throws — and Jones has thrown an interception in four of his last six starts under similar conditions.

Suggested Play:
O 0.5 Interceptions (-120)

RB Christian McCaffery

Christian McCaffrey gets a prime bounce-back opportunity against a Giants defense that ranks near the bottom of every key run metric. New York allows 2.88 yards before contact per carry (worst in the NFL) and the fourth-most rushing yards per game (116.3). Their over-aggressive blitzing frequently vacates the second level, leaving cutback lanes wide open. Shanahan’s offense, built on motion and misdirection, is perfectly suited to exploit that. McCaffrey has handled over 80% of the red-zone snaps, and his patience on zone cuts makes him lethal once he reaches the second tier. Expect the Niners to re-establish their ground identity early and often.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Rushing TD (-120)

WR Kendrick Bourne

Kendrick Bourne’s physicality and release package make him a natural fit to attack the Giants’ man-heavy coverage. He’s averaging 4.82 yards per route run vs man — one of the top marks in the league — and has developed into Mac Jones’ (or Purdy's) primary perimeter option. The Giants give up the sixth-most receiving yards to outside receivers (122.9 YPG) and have allowed explosive plays (20+ yards) on 15% of passes thrown their way. Bourne’s role in motion and crossing concepts should counter New York’s press looks, and he’s been featured on over 25% of Jones’ first reads against man.

Suggested Play:
O 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings remains a trusted target in tight spaces, particularly in the red zone. He leads the team in end-zone routes (6) over the past three games and has drawn a 34% target rate vs man coverage, the highest among 49ers wideouts. Jennings’ strength lies in leveraging defenders on short-breaking routes, especially slants and pivots — key weapons against the Giants’ blitz packages. New York has allowed six TDs in man coverage this season, often on misdirection or rub concepts near the goal line. Shanahan frequently isolates Jennings inside bunch sets to exploit that very tendency.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+185)

TE George Kittle

George Kittle’s production may dip this week as San Francisco adjusts its protection plan. The Giants blitz at one of the league’s highest rates, and Kittle’s value as a pass protector will likely outweigh his route volume. Against man coverage, he’s managed only 0.89 yards per route run, and New York’s linebackers allow just 48.3 receiving yards per game to tight ends. Expect him to chip on the edge and release late into coverage rather than running full-field concepts. His opportunities will be limited to checkdowns or play-action drags.

Suggested Play:
U 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jaxson Dart

Jaxson Dart enters Week 9 with impressive early-career poise, showing a strong command of timing routes and pocket mobility against both man and zone looks. He’s averaged 8.0 yards per attempt, thrown at least one touchdown in every start, and rushed for a score in back-to-back games. San Francisco’s defense features heavy zone usage — Cover 3 (35.4%) and Cover 4 (17.7%), totaling 53% of all snaps — which plays into Dart’s strengths. He’s produced 7.8 YPA with a +9.3% CPOE and 6/53 rushing across 83 dropbacks against these shells. The 49ers allow the 10th-most passing yards per game (235.9) and have yielded multiple passing touchdowns in three straight contests. Dart’s intermediate accuracy and off-script mobility give him paths to production even under pressure.

Suggested Play:
O 1.5 Pass TDs (+105)

RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.

With Cam Skattebo out, Tyrone Tracy reclaims lead-back duties for New York. He handled a 63% snap share last week, combining 53 scrimmage yards on 12 touches, and should see 15–18 opportunities against San Francisco’s defense. The 49ers allow the 16th-most rushing yards per game (90.9) and a middling 2.03 yards before contact per attempt, suggesting a neutral efficiency matchup. Tracy’s agility and receiving chops (2.6 catches per game last season) add upside against a linebacking unit that’s surrendered the 13th-most receiving yards to RBs (34.5 YPG). Expect designed screens and check-downs as extensions of the run game to neutralize the 49ers’ pass rush.

Suggested Play:

O 75.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Darius Slayton

Darius Slayton’s vertical presence remains critical for stretching coverage and testing corner leverage. He’s averaged 1.85 yards per route run vs. Cover 3/4 and nearly connected on a 68-yard TD last week before an OPI flag erased it. San Francisco’s zone-heavy structure limits explosive plays (allowing the sixth-fewest YPRR, 1.75), but Slayton’s role as Dart’s downfield read gives him big-play potential if protection holds. Expect the Giants to scheme deep crossers and double moves off play-action to exploit mismatched safeties.

Suggested Play:
O 20.5 Longest Reception (-110)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

Wan’Dale Robinson’s precision underneath and yards-after-catch ability make him the engine of New York’s short passing game. Against zone coverage, he owns a 20.4% target rate and 1.54 YPRR, ranking among the league’s more efficient slot options. San Francisco’s Cover 3/4 combos funnel targets inside, and the Niners have allowed the third-most slot receiving yards (94.8 per game). Expect quick hitters, bubble screens, and motion-based touches to counter the rush. Robinson’s volume floor is safe, and he’s a candidate to break one after the catch.

Suggested Play:
O 5.5 Receptions (+105)

TE Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson’s red-zone usage continues to stand out — he’s scored four times in his last five games while averaging a 17% target share. San Francisco’s linebackers excel in zone drops, allowing only 45.5 yards per game to TEs, yet they’ve been beaten by play-action seam routes (three TDs allowed in four weeks). Dart has targeted Johnson on 22% of throws inside the 20, and his size advantage creates mismatch potential near the goal line. Expect New York to use heavy personnel in condensed formations to isolate him on linebackers.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+185)

The Giants will be without Skatt and last week without him on the field they got outscored by 14 points. The 49ers win this game by 3+ here

Best Bet: 49ers -2.5 -125
Lean: Under 47.5 -130
Score Prediction 49ers 24 Giants 21

Anytime TD

Best Bet (49ers) Jauan Jennings +185

Jauan Jennings remains a trusted target in tight spaces, particularly in the red zone. He leads the team in end-zone routes (6) over the past three games and has drawn a 34% target rate vs man coverage, the highest among 49ers wideouts. Jennings’ strength lies in leveraging defenders on short-breaking routes, especially slants and pivots — key weapons against the Giants’ blitz packages. New York has allowed six TDs in man coverage this season, often on misdirection or rub concepts near the goal line. Shanahan frequently isolates Jennings inside bunch sets to exploit that very tendency.

Best Bet: (Giants) Theo Johnson +185

Theo Johnson’s red-zone usage continues to stand out — he’s scored four times in his last five games while averaging a 17% target share. San Francisco’s linebackers excel in zone drops, allowing only 45.5 yards per game to TEs, yet they’ve been beaten by play-action seam routes (three TDs allowed in four weeks). Dart has targeted Johnson on 22% of throws inside the 20, and his size advantage creates mismatch potential near the goal line. Expect New York to use heavy personnel in condensed formations to isolate him on linebackers.

First TD Scorer:

Best Bet: (49ers) Christian McCaffery +350

McCaffrey leads all NFL running backs in first-drive usage rate (38%) and has handled 81% of San Francisco’s goal-line carries. Kyle Shanahan has scripted opening possessions around gap-motion misdirection, typically sending Bourne across formation to pull linebackers, freeing McCaffrey off tackle. The Giants’ over-pursuit tendencies and light safety rotation make them especially vulnerable to those early red-zone looks. Expect San Francisco to test New York’s run fits immediately. With McCaffrey’s combination of vision, balance, and contact efficiency (3.2 yards after contact per rush), he’s the clear favorite to find the end zone before anyone else on the field.

First TD

Best Bet: (Giants) Tyrone Tracy +600

Tyrone Tracy Jr. steps into a featured role for New York, and the matchup against San Francisco sets up quietly well for early-scripted usage. The 49ers’ defense — while elite overall — has shown vulnerability on opening drives, allowing points on 43% of opponent possessions in the first quarter (bottom eight in the NFL). Their zone-heavy alignment (Cover 3/4 on 53% of snaps) can be exploited through well-timed draws and inside zones, particularly with safeties playing deep and linebackers retreating into coverage drops. Tracy profiles as the kind of versatile back who thrives early when the Giants are still balanced offensively. In his first start last week, he handled 63% of snaps and 70% of red-zone touches, and his combination of burst and contact balance (3.1 yards after contact per rush) gives him immediate scoring potential. The Giants’ opening series often features misdirection and RPO looks, ideal for slipping a back into open space against San Francisco’s upfield rush. If New York drives inside the 10, Tracy’s role as both the primary ball-carrier and screen option puts him first in line to cash.

Parlay #1 (49ers) +580

George Kittle 'U' 53.5 Receiving Yds

Jauan Jennings ATD

Christian McCaffery ATD

Parlay #2 (Giants) +995

Theo Johnson ATD

Tyrone Tracy Jr ATD

WanDale Robinson 'O' 5.5 Receptions

QB Bo Nix 
Nix has had a below average season for Denver this year holding a 91.0 QB Rating which ranks #10/16 QB’s with 300+ Dropbacks on the season to go with a 62.8% completion % #12/16 and 6.33 YPA ranking #12/16 as well. Now over the last 2 weeks this offense has really clicked but it’s really been on the ground for this team averaging a ridiculous 6.17 YPC having 24 & 28 ATT. Nix in these 2 games held a 58.2% CMP% averaging just 6.66 YPA. The Broncos and Bo Nix face a VERY VERY tough challenge facing Texans who have allowed just 196.4 passing yards per game which is the 4th FEWEST and a crazy 70.7 QB rating which is by far the best. They are also allowing just a 58.1% CMP% which is the 2nd LOWEST and that does not bode well for Nix in this one. The Texans over the last 2 weeks have allowed 36/64 attempts to be complete. Nix gets a 222.5 passing yards line which only 1/7 QB’s have got against the Texans. While doing all of this what is most impressive to me is how they limit QB Scrambles as well allowing just 9 (2nd FEWEST). Now one area they are bad at is allowing big scramble runs which could burn ya if you back his rushing props so I’m staying away. Texans use a very heavy dose of zone coverage (79.8%) which is the 4th highest running Cover 3 30.2% Cover 4 27.3%. Nix against those 2 coverages holds a 84.9 QB rating which ranks #19/24 QB’s with 100+ DB’s against these coverages. I think Nix struggles in this spot 

Suggested Pick
Bo Nix ‘U’ 222.5 Pass Yds -125

RB JK Dobbins 
This guy right here has been the strength for the Broncos as 5/8  weeks he has finished the game with 5.4+ YPC. This week he will be facing a Texans run defense who have allowed just 3.52 YPC ranking #6/32 and 1.37 yards before contact ranking #5/32. Over there last 3 weeks they have been even better allowing 3.12 YPC and 1.03 yards before contact. I feel like this is a come back down to earth spot for Dobbins and this Denver broncos offense as a whole. 

Suggested Pick 
JK Dobbins ‘U’ 66.5 Rush Yds -135
JK Dobbins ‘U’ Long Rush 

WR Courtland Sutton 
Sutton has been VERY impressive over the last 2 weeks having 87 & 67 yards in 10 & 6 targets. My only concerns is those were against teams that were vulnerable against wideout receivers in the Giants who have allowed 122.9 per game and the Cowboys giving up 131.1 to wideouts. Sutton this season has ran out of the wideout 76.5% of the time and the Texans have just shut down wideouts allowing 91 rec yds per game #10/32 with just 1.72 YPRR ranking #4/32 and 47 receptions #4/32. 9 of Suttons 10 receptions over the last 2 weeks have came out of the the wideout. I think this is a bad spot facing CB Kamari Lassiter who has allowed 22 receptions on 267 coverages (8.2% TGT%) and last year he only allowed a 47.8% completion % allowing 33 receptions on 479 coverages. This 22 year old is a stud. Sutton has a great separation score when running out of wideout but it’s just a really tough spot here for me to back him. Also the Texans running Cover 3 30.2% Cover 4 27.3% as their top 2 coverages and Sutton holds a 17.5% TGT% while averaging 1.73 YPRR.

Suggested Pick
Courtland Sutton ‘U’ 62.5 Rec Yds -149

WR Troy Franklin 
Franklin is coming off a very impressive week racking up 6 receptions on 8 targets for 89 yards. In the season he has ran out of Slot 54.5% which is the HIGHEST on the team and last week when Mims went down Franklin ran out of the slot 75% of the time! He is questionable so if Mims is not able to go or if limited Franklin will be in that slot more often which is solid because that is the the Texans only flaw allowing 1.75 YPRR #17/32 70.7 Rec Yds #19/32 and 46 receptions #11/32. It’s such a tough spot here because the unknown status of Mims. Now the Texans running Cover 3 30.2% Cover 4 27.3% as their top 2 coverages that is good news as he has the HIGHEST TGT% on the team at 18.2% shine catching 17/26 targets (65.4%) while averaging 13.76 YPR which is the highest on the team as well. He also had a team high 6 design play! With Sutton being locked down on the outside it could open more opportunities for Franklin out of the slot 

Suggested Pick 
Pass if Mims out take over yards 

TE Evan Engram
Engram has not been producing yards in great matchups but his volume is there having 4+ targets and 4+ receptions in 5 straight games. Engram his last 3 games has ran out of the slot 37.1% of the time which is down 6.1% from his season 43.2%. Last game against the Cowboys he ran out of the slot a season low 31.3% and 62.5% out of the inline. That is brutal news for him because this Texans team is VERY good against inline receivers allowing 0.91 YPRR ranking #2/32 and allowing a crazy 10.4 receiving yards ranking #4/32 and allowing just 11 receptions ranking #5/32. Nix low completion% against this stout Texans defense makes me EXTREMELY concerned for this 4+ receptions streak to continue. Also the Broncos are trusting Pat Bryant more and more every week which is limiting chances out of the slot for Engram to produce. I see him running 30/35% out of the slot this week again. Engram against Cover 3 & 4 holds 17.4% TGT% which is 3rd on team while averaging 1.97 YPRR. Out of the slot he has been less productive having 4 receptions on 30 routes ran which is where he would have to exploit this defense. Engram is solid against these coverages when in the inline but the Texans allow the 6th LOWEST YPRR against inline receivers when specifically in Cover 3 & 4. Bad spot for him to excel 

Suggested Pick
‘U’

QB C.J. Stroud
Stroud has completed 155 of 232 passes (66.8%) for 1,623 yards (14th), throwing for 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions, while also adding 27 carries for 177 rushing yards. Last week he completed 30 of 39 passes for 318 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, along with 7 carries for 30 yards. His advanced season metrics include a solid 7.00 yards per attempt, a 93.7 passer rating, and a decent 5.7% sack rate. Among quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks, Stroud ranks 15th in completion rate (66.8%) and yards per game (231.9), and 6th in 1st Read% (70.3%). However, a 28th ranking in Adjusted Completion % (72.9%) and 30th in Drop% (2.6%) shows some accuracy issues and/or drops from his receivers. Stroud has shown a significant struggle when blitzed, ranking 30th in grading under pressure. This is an issue since Denver ranks 3rd in blitz rate. Denver also ranks 3rd in pressure rate (43.3%) and leads the league in sack rate (12.3%), which is bad news for Stroud, who has played well when given time (against TEN, SF, BAL – all lower pressure rate teams) but struggled against high-pressure teams like Seattle.The Broncos play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (42.7%), which could help with Surtain out, but Stroud is going to need time to throw. The Broncos have only allowed multiple passing touchdowns twice this season. I think Stroud is going to have to throw plenty in this game, but I’m not sure it’ll go well.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 32.5 Passing Attempts (-102)

RB Nick Chubb
Chubb has recorded 80 carries for 321 yards (29th in the league) at a 4.0 YPC average, with 2 touchdowns. He's also contributed 10 catches on 15 targets for 54 yards. Last week, he managed 17 carries for 56 yards with no touchdowns and added 2 catches for 13 yards on 2 targets. His advanced season metrics don’t look great - among 37 qualified running backs, he ranks 24th in YPC (4.01), 30th in explosive run rate (2.5%), and 26th in yards after contact per attempt (2.11). He’s just not the same runner we once knew before the knee injuries. The matchup against the Denver Broncos is brutal for any running back. Denver's defense has been exceptional against the run, allowing the 23rd fewest rushing yards per game (95.1), the 28th highest yards per carry (3.79), and the 28th highest explosive run rate (2.0%).  I think the best approach here is to fade his longest rush prop. Chubb has gone "under" his longest rush in 4 of his last 5 games, and against a Denver defense that rarely allows explosive runs, this trend is likely to continue.

Suggested Picks
Longest Rush ‘U’ 11.5 Yards (-120)

RB Woody Marks
While he enters the game questionable with a calf injury, a full practice on Friday suggests he's likely to play. Season-to-date, Marks has 57 carries for 214 yards (44th) at a 3.8 YPC average and 1 rushing touchdown. Where he truly stands out is in the passing game, with 13 catches on 18 targets for 165 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns. Last week, he had a strong showing with 11 carries for 62 yards and 0 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 49 yards on 4 targets. Despite a lower YPC than Nick Chubb, Marks has demonstrated more explosiveness as a runner, boasting a 5.3% explosive run rate. However, he has also been "stuffed" on a significant 56.1% of his carries, struggling at times behind an offensive line ranked 19th in run blocking. Even as a receiver the outlook isn’t great, as Denver has allowed the fewest receptions per game (3.75) and targets (3.75) to running backs. Given Denver's overall tough run defense (as noted with Chubb) and their specific shutdown capability against receiving backs, this is not a favorable spot to back Marks in either the rushing or receiving game. 

Suggested Pick
‘U’ 2.5 Receptions (-160)

WR Nico Collins
Collins is on track to return after a concussion two weeks ago, which is a big plus for the Texans' passing game that looked solid without him last week. Nico has caught 26 of 46 targets (56.5%) for 339 yards and 3 touchdowns. He predominantly operates out wide (80.9%) but also sees action in the slot (19.1%). His advanced metrics highlight his importance to the offense: a substantial 23.4% target share, 13.04 yards per reception, a 27.2% 1st read rate, and a solid 92.6 passer rating when targeted, alongside 2.02 yards per route run. Although the volume has been good, the efficiency isn’t quite there from previous seasons - 7.4 yards per target this season vs10.2 and 11.9 of the previous two. Denver's star cornerback, Pat Surtain II, who typically shadows the opposing team's top wide receiver will be out for this game. This is a massive boost for Collins, as he avoids one of the league's premier shutdown corners. However, the caveat remains C.J. Stroud's anticipated struggle with pressure, as Denver ranks 3rd in pressure rate and leads the league in sack rate. Stroud still needs to get the ball to Collins. Without Surtain, the volume should continue Collins’ way. I’ll back his receptions, if anything here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-125)

WR Xavier Hutchinson
Season-to-date, Hutchinson has been remarkably efficient, securing 18 receptions on 24 targets (a stellar 75% catch rate) for 192 yards and 1 touchdown, adding a carry for 5 yards. Last week, he finished with 5 catches on 6 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown. He also has a 10.2% Target rate, 11.7% of team yardage, 10.67 YPR, 3.11 YAC/R, and an impressive 137.5 passer rating when targeted. He primarily plays out wide (81.1%). Critically, with Collins on the field, Hutchinson leads all other Houston wide receivers with a 7.5% target share. Without Collins and Kirk, he’s the go to guy in this offense. While Collins's return will likely cap Hutchinson's overall target volume, his lines have plummeted. With the unknown of how much Kirk will be involved he’s not a guy I want to back despite low lines.

Suggested Picks
PASS

WR Christian Kirk
Kirk is set to return from a hamstring injury, which will likely see him reclaim his role as the primary slot wide receiver, relegating rookie Jaylin Noel to a reduced role. On the season, Kirk has recorded 10 receptions on 16 targets (62.5% catch rate) for 109 yards and no touchdowns. He primarily operates from the slot (72.5%) and has shown flashes of efficiency with 10.90 yards per reception and 4.50 yards after the catch per reception. However, his 60.1 passer rating when targeted is a concern, but the sample size is relatively small. The most significant red flags for Kirk this week are his recent hamstring injury and how involved he will actually be. Hamstring injuries are notoriously tricky and can easily be aggravated, which could lead to a limited snap count or a cautious game plan for Kirk in the first week. He’s a full avoid for me this week. Once we see it, we can plan how to attack his props next week.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE Dalton Schultz
On the season, Schultz has been highly efficient when targeted, catching 32 of 40 passes (80%) for 308 yards, though he has yet to find the endzone. Last week, he had a poor with 2 catches for 34 yards on 3 targets., especially without Collins in the game. He holds a solid 9.6 yards per reception and 4.6 yards after the catch per reception, indicating he makes the most of his opportunities. Schultz maintains a versatile alignment, primarily inline (59.5%) and in the slot (32.6%). The matchup against the Denver Broncos is tough for tight end production. The Broncos generally limit tight end volume, allowing the 22nd most targets per game (6.63) and the 3rd fewest receptions (3.75) to the position. They are a bit more generous in terms of yards allowed (17th most at 50.4 yards per game). This was evident last week when they completely shut down Jake Ferguson, the Cowboys' tight end, allowing him not a single reception. I thought we’d see a good week out of Schultz last week and he fell flat. This doesn’t look like a good bounce back spot.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-110)

If you like defense this is going to be the game to watch. This Texans D will have plenty of success in this one. Give me the Texans in a very low scoring game 

Best Bet: Broncos 'U' 20.5 Pts -135
Lean: Texans ML -122
Score Prediction Broncos 14 Texans 21

Anytime TD

Best Bet (Texans): Nico Collins +160
Collins returns after a concussion kept him out last week. The huge piece here is no Patrick Surtain. I can't tell you how important that is. Not only is he a top corner, but he also is one of the few that truly shadows the top WR. Without Surtain and a heavy-man scheme Collins could cook in this game.

First TD Scorer:

Longshot (Texans): C.J. Stroud +5000
No, Stroud does not have a rushing touchdown this season. However, he's been using his legs a lot. With a high pressure rate team like DEN playing heavy man, there may be opportunities to scramble. We just need one to be near the goal line!

Parlay #1 (Texans) +245
C.J. Stroud 225+ Passing Yards
Nico Collins 50+ Receiving Yards
Dalton Schultz under 3.5 Receptions

QB JJ McCarthy

It's the return for JJ McCarthy after his injury and Carson Wentz being ruled out for the season. This week, he gets the Lions, who allow the 16th-most completions per game (21.4) and the 15th-most passing yards per game (232.9), but allow the fifth-most passing touchdowns per game (2.0). Detroit’s scheme leans on man coverage, running the coverage at the third-highest rate in the league (38%), including the fifth most Cover 1 (29.7%) and second most Cover 2 man (6.2%). Against man coverage this season, the second-year QB leads all qualified QBs with a 72.2% completion rate and averages 90 yards per game with 10.0 yards per attempt. Among 37 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks against man coverage, he ranks 18th in QBR (101.4). McCarthy has been remarkably efficient against Cover 1 looks, where he’s completed 69.2% (fourth) of his passes for 61 (ninth) yards per game and 9.38 (sixth) yards per attempt of all QBs with at least 15 dropbacks against the coverage. Despite the small sample size, McCarthy has been flawless against Cover 2 man, going a perfect 4-for-4 for 29 passing yards and a league-best 158.3 QBR – the highest QBR can go. It's not the greatest sample size for McCarthy, but his numbers against man coverage are encouraging for the young QB in his return. However, the rookie has yet to throw for over 200 yards in his NFL career. The Lions' passing defence is much better than it was last season, and it appears they're getting reinforcements back in their secondary with Terrion Arnold, which will only make it tougher for McCarthy.

Suggested pick:

JJ McCarthy u209.5 Passing Yards (+100)

RB Aaron Jones / Jordan Mason

In the first two weeks, Mason outsnapped Jones. However, in Jones' return last week, it was Jones who saw the majority of the field, outsnapping Mason 53.2% to 34%. So we'll be operating under the impression Jones will be the lead back. This week, the duo faces the Lions, who allow the second fewest rush attempts per game (16.6) and third in fewest rushing yards allowed (65.9). Scheme-wise, the Lions employ an even blend of zone (40%) and man/gap (38.7%) concepts. However, their vulnerability has shown slightly more against man/gap looks, where they’ve allowed 4.38 yards per carry, compared to just 3.61 against zone runs. This season, Jones is averaging 4.33 yards per carry versus man/gap concepts — a notable improvement over his 3.09 yards per carry against zone looks. But where he might have an edge with Jones is through the air. Detroit has allowed the ninth most receptions (4.9) to running backs per game, but they’ve limited efficiency, giving up the ninth fewest receiving yards (24.6) and just 5.42 yards per catch, fifth lowest in the league. The Lions’ linebackers and safeties rally quickly to the ball, though their 81.6% catch rate allowed indicates that checkdowns and quick flares are there for the taking. Last week, Jones saw four targets, catching two of those balls for 15 receiving yards.

Suggested Pick:

Aaron Jones o2.5 Receptions (-110)

WR Justin Jefferson

It's not necessarily the greatest news for Jefferson that McCarthy is under centre this week. In the first two weeks of the season, Jefferson caught just seven of his 13 targets for 125 receiving yards – a feat he hit in an individual game twice with Wentz. This week’s matchup against Detroit should test Justin Jefferson, as he hasn't performed the best against man coverage this season. Detroit allows the 14th fewest receptions (11.3) and 9th in fewest receiving yards allowed (136.9) per game to opposing wideouts. Detroit plays man coverage on 38% of defensive snaps, the third-highest rate in the league. Against man this season, Jefferson earns a massive 34.2% target share — easily the highest among Vikings receivers — converting 12 receptions on 24 targets for 154 yards across 80 routes. The volume is there, but the efficiency hasn’t been as sharp as usual. His catch rate drops to 40.9% against man coverage, and while he’s still producing at a solid 13.4 yards per reception, his yards after the catch (2.1) and yards per route run (1.57) both decline compared to his zone splits. Looking at Detroit’s specific coverages, Jefferson has seen mixed results. Against Cover 1 — a scheme the Lions deploy nearly 30% of the time — he’s posted 8 receptions on 18 targets for 100 yards on 54 routes. He’s been more efficient against Cover 2 man, albeit a small sample size, going a perfect 3-for-3 for 44 yards on just 19 routes. Jefferson runs 77% of his snaps out wide. Against outside receivers, the Lions have been stingy, allowing the 8th lowest catch rate (59.2%) but the 9th highest yards per reception (14.1). The targets should be there for Jefferson, but they might not be enough to translate into a successful day for the star receiver.

Suggested pick:

Justin Jefferson u73.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Jordan Addison

Addison has yet to play with McCarthy under centre. So this will be a learning curve for the two youngsters to see what chemistry they develop. Addison lines up opposite of Jefferson on the outside on 73.5% of his routes. We've covered that the Lions are a tough matchup for outside WRs, allowing the 14th fewest receptions (11.3) and 9th fewest receiving yards (136.9) per game. Against man coverage this season, Addison has been quietly excellent despite limited volume — catching all five of his targets for 54 yards across 48 routes. His perfect 100% catch rate and team-leading 13.0 yards per reception against man coverage highlight how effective he can be when given one-on-one chances. Even more impressive, four of those receptions came against Cover 1, where he’s turned in 49 yards on just 29 routes. Compared to zone, he’s improved nearly every metric when seeing man coverage — higher catch rate (80%), yards per reception (12.3), and yards per route run (1.09). As we mentioned, there is no sample size between the two. However, we're optimistic that Addison will have a good game in this matchup due to his success against man coverage this season.

Suggested pick:

Jordan Addison o44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE TJ Hockenson

TJ Hockenson faces his former team this week in what projects to be a tough matchup. Detroit has been solid against tight ends, allowing the 15th fewest receptions (5.1) and just the 14th most receiving yards (54.4) per game. The Lions run man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league (38%), leaning heavily on Cover 1 (29.7%) and mixing in some Cover 2 man (6.2%). Historically, man coverage has muted Hockenson’s production. This season, he’s caught 6 of 8 targets for 35 yards across 68 routes when facing man coverage — just 5.8 yards per catch and 0.44 yards per route run. Even though his catch rate is strong (83.3%), he's been capped in terms of yards after the catch (3.8 per reception). His target share also drops sharply — from 21.9% against zone to just 9.4% against man coverage — meaning he may not be a focal point of the game plan this week. Against Cover 1 this season, Hockenson has managed 5 catches for 31 yards on 43 routes. Against Cover 2 man, he’s seen just two targets, catching one for four yards. Hockenson’s alignment also doesn’t help him much in this matchup. He’s lined up inline on 45.7% of his snaps this season. The Lions have been exceptional against tight ends aligned inline, allowing the lowest catch rate in the NFL (53.8%) and the lowest yards per reception (5.57). They’ve also been targeted at the 3rd lowest rate overall (13), suggesting they rarely give up free looks to tight ends working underneath. I love a good revenge narrative, but it doesn't look like it'll be a good day for Hockenson against the Lions. In his two games with McCarthy this season, Hockenson caught four of his seven targets for 27 receiving yards.

Suggested pick:

TJ Hockenson u3.5 Receptions (+110)

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff continues to thrive within Detroit’s efficient, play-action-heavy system. Despite attempting fewer than 30 passes in six straight games, he leads the NFL in passer rating (116.4) and ranks among the league leaders in touchdown rate (7.4%). Minnesota brings heat more than anyone — a league-high 43.8% blitz rate — but Goff’s numbers improve under pressure, posting a 10.96 YPA, 132.9 passer rating, and +12.5% CPOE when blitzed. The Vikings have surrendered multiple passing touchdowns in three straight games, and their two-high shell (69.4% of snaps) is vulnerable to layered route concepts that Detroit executes as well as any team in football. Expect the Lions to dial up early scripted plays to counter the blitz, using motion and tight formations to isolate Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta on leverage matchups.

Suggested Play:
O 2.5 Pass TDs (+170)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs’ explosiveness continues to redefine Detroit’s backfield. He’s topped 87+ scrimmage yards in five of his last six games, including a monster 218-yard, 2-TD performance against Tampa. Gibbs’ acceleration through tight zone lanes has made him deadly when defenses bring pressure — he’s averaging 5.8 yards per carry vs. loaded boxes. Minnesota allows the ninth-most rushing yards per game (108.3) and has given up 118+ scrimmage yards to a running back in three of its last four games. Gibbs’ ability to turn check-downs into chunk gains will test the Vikings’ linebackers, who’ve missed tackles on 13.5% of open-field plays. Expect designed screens and motion sweeps to get him in space early.

Suggested Play:
'O' 3.5 Receptions (+105)

RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery remains the thunder to Gibbs’ lightning — and the engine of Detroit’s red-zone offense. He’s handled 62% of the team’s carries inside the 10-yard line, maintaining one of the NFL’s highest short-yardage conversion rates (73%). Minnesota’s defensive front is aggressive but not gap-disciplined, giving up 1.81 yards before contact per carry. Look for Montgomery to benefit in the second half once Gibbs has softened the interior. The Lions’ offensive line ranks top five in run-block win rate, and their heavy personnel sets often isolate Monty behind pulling guards on inside zone.

Suggested Play:
First TD Scorer (+355)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s precision route running remains unmatched. He’s recorded 6+ receptions in six straight games and continues to dominate out of the slot, commanding a 33% target share on quick-hitting concepts. Against Minnesota’s two-high looks (69.4%), he’s averaged 3.23 YPRR and a robust 0.33 targets per route, shredding underneath zones with sharp option routes and whip patterns. The Vikings have allowed just 56.6 slot receiving yards per game, but no receiver in football is more consistent at finding voids behind blitzing linebackers. Expect early rhythm targets and red-zone motion looks to isolate him against safeties.

Suggested Play:

'O' 6.5 Receptions (-105)

TE Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta’s production has cooled in recent weeks, but the rookie tight end remains heavily involved in Detroit’s design. Minnesota plays zone at a top-five rate, which naturally funnels short-to-intermediate targets toward tight ends. Against two-high safety looks, LaPorta has produced 2.41 YPRR and a 27% target-per-route rate, among the best at his position. The Vikings allow 5.6 receptions per game to tight ends but are vulnerable near the seams when blitzing. Expect LaPorta to be a safety-valve early and a play-action weapon near the red zone — an ideal game script for a bounce-back performance.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+170)

This Vikings are banged up and the Lions will be locked in. Give me the Lions in a beatdown  

Best Bet: Lions -8.5 -130
Lean: Under 49.5 -150
Score Prediction Vikings 17 Lions 30

Anytime TD

Best Bet (Lions): Sam LaPorta +170

Sam LaPorta’s production has cooled in recent weeks, but the rookie tight end remains heavily involved in Detroit’s design. Minnesota plays zone at a top-five rate, which naturally funnels short-to-intermediate targets toward tight ends. Against two-high safety looks, LaPorta has produced 2.41 YPRR and a 27% target-per-route rate, among the best at his position. The Vikings allow 5.6 receptions per game to tight ends but are vulnerable near the seams when blitzing. Expect LaPorta to be a safety-valve early and a play-action weapon near the red zone — an ideal game script for a bounce-back performance.

Best Pick: (Vikings): Justin Jefferson (+140)

Is it just me, or is it not weird that Jefferson has not found the end zone since Week 1! For a top-two WR in the league, that's incredibly upsetting. That could change this week against the Lions, who're allowing the second most receiving TDs (1.6) to opposing WRs this season. Jefferson has had success against the Lions in the past, catching a TD in three of his last four games against his division foe.

First TD Scorer:

Best Bet (Lions) David Montgomery +505

David Montgomery remains the thunder to Gibbs’ lightning — and the engine of Detroit’s red-zone offense. He’s handled 62% of the team’s carries inside the 10-yard line, maintaining one of the NFL’s highest short-yardage conversion rates (73%). Minnesota’s defensive front is aggressive but not gap-disciplined, giving up 1.81 yards before contact per carry. Look for Montgomery to benefit in the second half once Gibbs has softened the interior. The Lions’ offensive line ranks top five in run-block win rate, and their heavy personnel sets often isolate Monty behind pulling guards on inside zone.

Best Pick: (Vikings) Aaron Jones First TD (+1400)

With Jones overtaking Mason in the backfield, Jones might be a decent look. We don't expect Jones to get any goal line work, but that's not where we're anticipating the Vikings being able to score. We saw McCarthy hit Jones on a wheel route earlier in the season, we could see him go back to it early in a matchup they might need to throw the ball to succeed, and Jones is that receiving back for the Vikings.

Parlay #1 (Lions) +430

Jahmyr Gibbs ATD

David Montgomery ATD

Jahmyr Gibbs 'O' 3.5 Receptions (+105)

Parlay 1: (Vikings) +1400 odds on bet365

JJ McCarthy u209.5 Passing Yards

Aaron Jones o2.5 Receptions

Jordan Addison 50+ Receiving Yards

QB Bryce Young

After missing week 8 with a high ankle sprain, Bryce Young returns to the lineup this Sunday, and awaiting him will be the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. My prognostication is that by the end of this football game Young may be wishing he would have taken one more week off. He will face a rejuvenated Packers defense with newly acquired edge rusher Micah Parsons, who has the 3rd highest pressure rate (22.3) among NFL defensive linemen. His impact on the GB defense has been immediate, increasing their 4-man pass rush from 7.7% to 12.5%. As a team, the Packers have risen to 13th overall in pressure rate 36.6%. Bryce Young will face a Green Bay defense that runs the 8th highest rate of zone coverage (78.0%) in the league. They primarily lean on Cover-3 (34.4%) and Cover-2 (20.3%) for 54.7% of their overall defensive snaps. The Panthers starting QB has completed just 61.6% (69 of 112) of his passes against these two coverage schemes, averaging 94.9 pass YPG and only 5.93 YPPA. Young has thrown for 2 TD and 3 INT vs Cover-3 and Cover-2, and overall facing zone defense he has 2 TD and 5 INT. These are not optimistic numbers for a player who is coming in hobbled and has a career record of 2-15 on the road as a starter, and it should be pointed out that one of Young’s wins came vs the Jets, who barely qualify as an NFL team. Now, the Packers have allowed multiple pass TDs in 4 straight games, and with Carolina coming in as a 13.5 point underdog there is reason to believe this will be a pass-heavy script in the 2nd half. However, given the fact that Bryce Young is entering this game pretty fragile, I have concerns about the possibility of him tweaking his ankle or Dave Canales pulling him early if the Packers build a large enough lead. There’s also no value in Bryce Young as it relates to the running game. The Pack allow the fewest rush YPG (6.3) and fewest rush attempts per game (2.1) to opposing QBs. His line is set at 5.5 rush yards, and despite the fact that Green Bay has slammed the door shut on running QBs this is simply too low of a number to take either side of the line on. There is one spot that I really do like this Sunday at Lambeau Field, and that is for Young to throw an INT. He already has a propensity of getting picked off when facing zone defense, and he’s thrown at least 1+ interception in 5 of L6 games on the road. We’re also getting a really nice price tag on this line at -136, and this can be attributed to the fact that Green Bay has only two team INTs on the season. That said, they are a different defense with Micah Parsons, and one edge rusher can completely wreck an entire game. The Panthers will try to keep it close for as long as they can by running the ball, but the Packers have one of the best rush defenses in the entire league.

Suggested Bet:

Bryce Young o0.5 Interceptions (-136)

RB Chubba Hubbard/Rico Dowdle

The more I look into this game, the more I like Green Bay covering the spread. They already have a leg up facing Bryce Young, whose numbers as a starting QB are quite poor. The one area the Panthers would like to challenge the Packers in is the running game, but this is a terrible spot for Carolina this Sunday. Through their first seven games of the season, GB has limited opposing RBs to only 70.3 rush YPG (4th lowest) on 3.8 YPC (6th fewest). Anybody with a remotely decent set of eyes can tell you that Rico Dowdle is by far the better running back between him and Chubba Hubbard. I don’t even think head coach Dave Canales and the front office are disputing that at this point. However, Hubbard is the guy they have invested their money in, and despite just a one-year age gap between the two, Chubba is the future for CAR. He had 12 touches in week 8, while handling 59.3% of the snaps. Meanwhile, Dowdle played only 33.9% of the snaps and touched the ball 8 times. That disparity still didn’t keep Rico from being the more productive Panther player out of the backfield. While it was nothing to shout from the rooftop, Dowdle outgained Hubbard in yards 54 to 34. It’s hard enough beating the books, but Carolina has made it nearly impossible by giving the lion share of the workload to the least productive RB, while the other guy is outgaining his backfield partner 1.8 YPC. To complicate matters even more, neither is particularly productive in the passing game. The running back position is one I particularly like to target, but there’s just not a good spot anywhere to grab a hold of.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

WR Tetairoa McMillan

Tetairoa McMillan has been one of the most reliable players to bet on this year, not only for Carolina, but among all NFL players. We’ve backed the Panthers WR on a number of occasions, while fading in him in a couple of spots, and nearly every time he’s come through. McMillan was targeted a season-high 10 times, catching 7 balls for 99 yards in week 8 vs Buffalo. He will face a Green Bay team this Sunday who plays zone coverage (78.0%) at the 8th highest rate in the league. Cover-3 (34.4%) and Cover-2 (20.3%) comprises 54.7% of their coverage schemes when playing zone, but they also splash in some Cover-6 (13.8%) and Cover-4 (9.5%) on occasion. To no fault of his own, McMillan has caught just 23 of his 40 targets (57.5% CR) for 296 yards and only 1 TD this season, while averaging 1.98 YPRR and .24 TPRR on 125 routes. On the contrary, the Carolina wide receiver excels far more in man coverage, where his catch-rate goes from 57.5% to 68.4%. In addition, McMillan is averaging 16.2 YPR vs man as opposed to 12.9 YPR when facing zone. Bryce Young is coming in with a gimpy ankle after missing a week and being limited in practice. It may not seem like much, but high ankle sprains are far more difficult for QBs to deal with because this compromises the ability to get your feet planted properly. So, we have a hampered quarterback, who already has major issues throwing the football accurately, while performing poorly against zone coverage all year. Now, he has to look for his best receiver, all the while having one eye on Micah Parsons the entire day so as not to further injure himself. This has low production written all over it. Fade McMillan in week 9 at Lambeau.

Suggested Bet:

Tetairoa McMillan u56.5 Rec Yards (-115)

WR Jalen Coker/Xavier Legette

This is a wash, rinse and repeat case of what we are dealing with at running back for the Panthers. The only difference is this takes place at the #2 wide receiver spot. Since returning to the field, Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette have split time, and neither can be counted on. Last Sunday, Coker caught 3 balls on 6 targets (36 yards), while Xavier Legette had 2 receptions on 3 targets (17 yards). With a pass heavy script forecasted for the second half, it’s likely one of these two has the potential to post a “decent” line but guessing which one it’s going to be is nothing short of play Russian roulette.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

TE JaTavion Sanders

Last week, I cautioned everyone to avoid the tight end situation in Carolina. That advice proved to be wise, as Ja’Tavion Sanders (3-19-0) and Tommy Tremble (1-4-0) combined to catch all 4 of their targets for a measly 23 yards. Now, I say this cautiously, but Ja’Tavion Sanders could have some value on his reception line at 2.5. Green Bay allows the 2nd most receptions per game to opposing TEs (7.9) and the last time Sanders faced a team that defends the tight end so poorly was week 2 in Arizona, where he posted 7-54-0 on 9 targets. Again, there is some risk here because I do expect the head coach Dave Canales to employ some two TE pass-blocking  schemes in order to give Bryce Young the maximum amount of protection from Micah Parsons.

Suggested Bet:

Ja’Tavion Sanders o2.5 Receptions (-102)

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love enters Week 9 on a hot streak after torching Pittsburgh for 360 yards and 3 TDs on 9.7 YPA — his most efficient outing since taking over as starter. He’s quietly risen into the top five among qualified QBs in yards per attempt (8.44), passer rating (112.8), and completion percentage over expected (+6.2%). The Panthers’ heavy zone tendencies — Cover 3 on 41.2% of snaps — align well with Love’s rhythm passing style. Against that coverage, he’s posted 8.5 YPA with a +7.5% CPOE, showing comfort attacking seams and intermediate windows. Carolina’s defense has been carved up lately, allowing 3+ passing TDs in four of its last five games. Expect Matt LaFleur to build early drives around layered crossers and motion routes that isolate linebackers in space.

Suggested Play:
'O' 234.5 Pass Yards (-115)

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs continues to be Green Bay’s workhorse, finding the end zone in 16 of his last 18 games while leading the league in goal-line carries over that span. Though he’s averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, Carolina’s run defense presents a prime opportunity to rebound. The Panthers allow 96.1 rushing yards per game, rank 25th in adjusted yards before contact (2.41), and have been gashed by power backs — including James Cook’s 216-yard, 2-TD explosion last week. With Derrick Brown’s availability in question, Green Bay should commit early to inside zone runs and gap concepts where Jacobs can exploit light boxes created by Carolina’s deep safeties. Expect steady volume and red-zone opportunities to follow.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (-160)

WR Romeo Doubs

Romeo Doubs remains Jordan Love’s most consistent perimeter option, leading the Packers in red-zone target share (25%) and maintaining a strong rapport on timing-based routes. Against Cover 3, Doubs averages 2.26 yards per route run and commands a 26% target-per-route rate, both elite marks versus zone looks. Carolina’s coverage structure forces offenses to string together long drives, but its corners have allowed the 13th-fewest yards per route run (1.90) and have shown vulnerability on boundary crossers and sideline digs — routes Doubs frequently attacks. With Christian Watson returning to stretch the field vertically, expect softer intermediate coverage and higher efficiency for Doubs underneath.

Suggested Play:
'O' 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft has emerged as a dynamic mismatch weapon, posting 15.6 yards per reception and leading all tight ends in yards after catch per reception (10.26). His usage has spiked — 9 targets and 7 catches last week — and his efficiency against zone coverage makes him the centerpiece of Green Bay’s intermediate attack. Against Cover 3, Kraft averages 2.30 YPRR and has become Jordan Love’s preferred target on boot-action and seam routes. The Panthers rank 27th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends (66.0 YPG) and have given up chunk plays to athletic TEs all year. Expect LaFleur to continue featuring Kraft on play-action designs that exploit linebacker depth drops.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+100)

this Packers team will have no issues here. Keeping this one short

Best Bet: Packers -12.5 -115
Lean: Under 44.5 -120
Score Prediction Panthers 13 Packers 30 

Anytime TD

Best Bet  (Packers):  Tucker Kraft  +100

Tucker Kraft has emerged as a dynamic mismatch weapon, posting 15.6 yards per reception and leading all tight ends in yards after catch per reception (10.26). His usage has spiked — 9 targets and 7 catches last week — and his efficiency against zone coverage makes him the centerpiece of Green Bay’s intermediate attack. Against Cover 3, Kraft averages 2.30 YPRR and has become Jordan Love’s preferred target on boot-action and seam routes. The Panthers rank 27th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends (66.0 YPG) and have given up chunk plays to athletic TEs all year. Expect LaFleur to continue featuring Kraft on play-action designs that exploit linebacker depth drops.

Best Play  (Panthers):  Rico Dowdle  +270

With the understanding that Green Bay has allowed opposing RBs to find the end zone only twice all season, Rico Dowdle is your most likely your best chance to score on Sunday. He’s recorded 3 TDs and has outperformed Chubba Hubbard in production all year long. Assuming the Panthers have to play behind, Dowdle is a dual threat out of the backfield, and this should earn him more opportunities if/when Carolina gets into the red zone.

First TD Scorer

Longshot (Panthers): Tetairoa McMillan +1500 

I’m not going to lie, trusting anyone on the Carolina Panthers to score the first TD on the road at Lambeau Field is certainly a longshot, but you have to like the +1500 odds we’re getting on a player of Tetaroia McMillan’s talent. He’s only found the end zone twice all season, but his red zone target rate continues to rise with each week.

Parlay 1 (Packers):  Best Play  +435

Josh Jacobs ATD

Tucker Kraft ATD

Jordan Love 'O' 234.5 Pass Yards

Parlay #1 (Panthers):  Best Play  +138  FD

Bryce Young o0.5 Interceptions

Tetairoa McMillan u56.5 Rec Yards

Ja’Tavion Sanders 2+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Panthers):  Longshot  +1274  FD

Bryce Young o0.5 Interceptions

Tetairoa McMillan u56.5 Rec Yards

Tetairoa McMillan Anytime TD

Ja’Tavion Sanders 3+ Receptions

QB Trevor Lawrence
On the season, Lawrence has completed 152 of 259 passes (58.7%) for 1,620 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, adding 30 carries for 113 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. In his last game before the BYE, he completed 23 of 48 passes for 296 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions, along with 2 carries for 18 yards. His advanced metrics show some concerns: a 6.25 YPA and a low 80.6 passer rating. He ranks 30th in completion rate (58.7%) among qualified quarterbacks, only ahead of Cam Ward (yikes). A major contributing factor to this low completion rate is a league-highest 10.8% drop rate by his pass-catchers, paired with his own 12.4% inaccurate target rate (28th lowest), indicating struggles from both ends. The Raiders run zone coverage at the highest rate in the league (83.8%), primarily Cover 3. This is problematic for Lawrence, as he has struggled much more against zone than man coverage this season. However, there is a silver lining: Lawrence has been under significant pressure in his last three games (54%, 52%, and 47% pressure rate, respectively), after enjoying a league-low 20% pressure rate early in the season. The good news is that Las Vegas ranks just 25th in pass rush grading, suggesting Lawrence might finally get some much-needed time in the pocket. Despite the low completion rate and struggles against zone, the potential for better protection and his 8.4 aDOT (9th highest) suggest he could still push the ball downfield if given time. The drop rate will likely positively regress at some point and if we are going to back Trevor, let’s do it in a matchup where he’ll likely have time to throw.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 228.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
This season, Etienne has rushed 97 times for 514 yards (5.3 YPC) and 2 touchdowns, adding 14 catches on 22 targets for 80 yards and another touchdown. However, his recent production has been alarming; his last game saw him with just 8 carries for 44 yards and 1 catch for 11 yards on 3 targets, marking his fourth game with fewer than 60 total yards over his past five. Equaling as concerning is his declining share of backfield touches. After consistently handling 73% to 78% of touches in the three weeks prior to the London game, his share dropped to a season-low 60% in that last outing. We won’t read too much into one week, but it’s noteworthy. He still ranks 4th in YPC (5.30), 15th in explosive run rate (5.2%), and 11th in stuff rate (42.3%) among qualified running backs. Despite opponents often playing with a positive game script against the Raiders, Las Vegas has been surprisingly solid against the run. They are allowing the 20th most rushing yards per game (103.4), the 23rd highest yards per carry (3.96), and the 25th highest explosive run rate (2.7%). Bating LV is typically done through the air and not on the ground. Adding that to an already struggling run game doesn’t bode well for Etienne in this one.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 14.5 Carries (-120)
‘U’ 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Bhayshul Tuten
This season, Tuten has rushed 32 times for 130 yards (4.1 YPC) and 1 touchdown, adding 6 catches on 8 targets for 59 yards and another touchdown. In his last game, he had 5 carries for 22 yards but zero receptions. Tuten remains the clear backup to Travis Etienne, and while Etienne's production has slowed in recent weeks, it hasn't translated into a significant increase in workload for Tuten. Tuten has yet to produce an explosive run this season, although he is efficient in avoiding negative plays, losing yardage on only 9.4% of his attempts. Given the tougher matchup, he’s a fade or pass for me. Even if he gets some work in garbage time, that’s never something I want to count on for an over to cash.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 6.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Brian Thomas Jr.
On the season, Thomas has caught 27 of 55 targets (49%) for 365 yards and 1 touchdown, adding 2 carries for 16 yards and a rushing touchdown. In his last game, he secured 3 catches for 31 yards on 7 targets, a disappointing effort. Thomas primarily lines up out wide (75.4%) and is a clear deep threat, evidenced by his 13.52 yards per reception and a substantial 31.1% air yardage share. He commands a healthy 20.8% target share overall, which is expected to continue, if not increase, with the absence of Hunter, who landed on IR this week. A key advanced metric is his 26.5% target share specifically against Cover 3, which is crucial given that the Raiders play Cover 3 at the highest rate in the league (83.8%). However, despite the target volume, Thomas's overall efficiency has been a concern, reflected in his low 49% catch rate and a 70.4 passer rating when targeted. He is currently dealing with a shoulder injury, but is expected to play this week. As much as Thomas has been frustrating, I can’t imagine taking an under given the matchup and absence of Hunter.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Parker Washington
With Travis Hunter landing on injured reserve, Washington is poised to see a much larger role in the Jaguars' passing game. On the season, Washington has caught 17 of 35 targets (48.5%) for 207 yards and 1 touchdown, adding 4 carries for 9 yards. In his last game, he showed flashes of potential with 4 catches for 52 yards on 10 targets, along with 3 rushes for 10 yards. Washington splits his alignment between out wide (62.9%) and the slot (37.1%). His advanced metrics include a 13.1% target share and 12.18 yards per reception. Importantly, Washington leads the team in target share per route run (23.5%), which suggests that when he is on the field, he is actively being targeted. The matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, who predominantly play zone coverage (Cover 3), offers a mixed bag. While the overall Jaguars' passing game has struggled against zone, Washington's potential for increased targets alongside Dyami Brown (who is questionable) could outweigh some of these concerns. Washington is a fun player to bet on this week and with a heavier passing attack expected and Brown banged up, Washington overs are my favorite to take of the WR group.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
60+ Receiving Yards (+225)

TE Hunter Long
While he's seen a slight uptick in usage due to Brenton Strange landing on IR, Long hasn’t done a whole lot with it. On the season, Long has been efficient when targeted, catching 11 of 14 passes (78.5%) for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns. Last week, he secured 2 catches for 16 yards on 3 targets. Long splits his alignment between inline (49.2%), slot (29.0%), and out wide (20.2%). His advanced metrics are modest, with 7.2 yards per reception and 3.00 yards after the catch per reception. While his catch rate is high, his overall yardage per reception indicates a short-area target (dump-off type). The matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders is tough for tight ends. The Raiders are stingy against the position, allowing the 5th fewest targets (5.71 per game), the 7th fewest receptions (4.14 per game), and the 17th fewest receiving yards (50.7 per game) to opposing tight ends. Given the Raiders' strong defense against tight ends, Long's relatively low overall yardage per reception, and the fact that he is still likely to be part of a committee approach even with Strange out, there is very little upside to betting on Hunter Long this week.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 2.5 Receptions (-130)

QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith’s season has been defined by volatility and turnovers, but this matchup offers a chance for stabilization. Jacksonville’s secondary sits near the bottom in explosive-play prevention, allowing 254.1 passing yards per game (7th-most) and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game (3rd-most). Against Cover 3 and Cover 6, Geno’s numbers remain quietly strong — 8.92 YPA, +9.3% CPOE, and a 95.5 passer rating on 60 attempts. The Jaguars rely on a four-man rush, but their pressure rate has dropped below 32% since Week 4, leaving windows open on intermediate crossers and deep digs. Las Vegas’ protection remains the variable. If the Raiders’ line can buy even two seconds of rhythm in the pocket, Geno’s deep play-action concepts — particularly seam routes and backside slants — can expose Jacksonville’s spacing flaws between the second and third levels. Expect a quick-strike approach early to counter pressure and re-establish confidence.

Suggested Play:
O 1.5 Pass TDs (+125)

RB Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty’s efficiency metrics still flash despite limited volume — 2.43 yards after contact per attempt (YACO/ATT) and a .22 missed-tackle-forced rate (MTF/ATT). He’ll face a disciplined Jaguars front allowing just 70.4 rushing yards per game (5th-fewest), but one that has been vulnerable to backs catching passes in space, conceding 40.3 receiving yards per game (5th-most). Expect Las Vegas to lean on Jeanty as both an outlet and screen option to mitigate pressure looks. Jacksonville’s linebackers have struggled in pursuit when stretched laterally; outside-zone tosses and delayed swing routes are likely to feature early. With red-zone snaps trending upward before Week 7’s collapse, Jeanty remains the most likely candidate to cash near the goal line should the Raiders sustain an early drive.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+105)

WR Jakobi Meyers

Jakobi Meyers returns to a tough matchup in the slot against a Jaguars defense that quietly allows the fewest receiving yards per game (45.0) and fewest yards per route run (1.17) to interior receivers. Jacksonville’s zone-heavy tendencies (Cover 3 and 6 on 54.6% of snaps) funnel throws outside, and Meyers’ 1.52 YPRR and .17 TPRR versus those looks indicate limited explosive upside. Still, his precision on option routes and short pivots gives him value as a chain-mover, particularly on third downs against soft coverage shells. If the Raiders’ offense finds rhythm, Meyers’ production will depend on red-zone spacing — expect him to be featured on mesh and quick out routes inside the 10.

Suggested Play:
'O' 4.5 Receptions (-115)

TE Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers’ return fundamentally reshapes Las Vegas’ passing game. Before his knee setback, he ranked among the most efficient tight ends in zone-beating metrics — 4.03 yards per route run and .31 targets per route run against Cover 3 and 6. Jacksonville has struggled to contain athletic tight ends who can separate vertically, surrendering 62.6 receiving yards per game (10th-most) and 5.6 catches per game (12th-most) to the position. Expect heavy use of play-action rollouts and flood concepts that isolate Bowers against linebackers in space. If he’s near full speed, his burst up the seam can be the key to unlocking Jacksonville’s middle-field vulnerabilities — especially in scripted red-zone plays designed to bait their safeties forward.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+155)

I think the Raiders are a SNEAKY upset pick here. Give me the points as I think they will win outright.

Best Bet: Raiders +3.5 -125
Lean: Under 44.5 -110
Score Prediction Jags 20 Raiders 23

Anytime TD

Best Bet (Jaguars): Brian Thomas Jr. +135
I know, he's frustrating to bet on... but now with Hunter on IR, this sets up for a massive volume day. The drops have been brutal, but I think we'll see positive regression on them. Las Vegas is more of a pass funnel defense that is surprisingly good against the run. Doesn't hurt that the Jags haven't ben able to run efficiently in several weeks too.

Best Bet (Raiders): Brock Bowers +155

Brock Bowers’ return fundamentally reshapes Las Vegas’ passing game. Before his knee setback, he ranked among the most efficient tight ends in zone-beating metrics — 4.03 yards per route run and .31 targets per route run against Cover 3 and 6. Jacksonville has struggled to contain athletic tight ends who can separate vertically, surrendering 62.6 receiving yards per game (10th-most) and 5.6 catches per game (12th-most) to the position. Expect heavy use of play-action rollouts and flood concepts that isolate Bowers against linebackers in space. If he’s near full speed, his burst up the seam can be the key to unlocking Jacksonville’s middle-field vulnerabilities — especially in scripted red-zone plays designed to bait their safeties forward.

First TD Scorer:

Longshot (Jaguars): Parker Washington +1600
This kid is fun and he already has a TD on the season - against KC none the less. With Hunter heading to IR and a good passing matchup, Parker should be more involved this week. Dyami Brown will also be involved but he's questionable and at best might be banged up.

Longshot (Raiders) Ashton Jeanty +505

Jacksonville’s defense has quietly allowed the fourth-most first-quarter rushing touchdowns this season, a byproduct of soft interior pursuit and poor edge containment when teams run outside zone. Jeanty’s compact build and contact balance make him ideal for this type of early script: downhill runs out of 11 personnel and quick swing passes designed to stress the linebackers horizontally. If Las Vegas reaches scoring range on its opening drive — likely off play-action or a short field after a turnover — Jeanty should be the finisher. Expect the Raiders to establish tempo with power concepts and let their most efficient ball-carrier punch it in.

Parlay #1 (Jaguars) +354
Trevor Lawrence over 228.5 Pass Yards
Parker Washington over 41.5 Rec Yards
Travis Etienne under 56.5 Rushing Yards

Parlay #2 (Jaguars) +540
Trevor Lawrence 250+ Pass Yards
Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 Pass TD's
Brian Thomas TD
Brian Thomas 80+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #3 (Raiders) +480

Ashton Jeanty ATD
Geno Smith 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs

Jakobi Meyers 'O' 47.5 Receiving Yards

QB Tyler Shough

Well, it only took one win in 14 starts, and finally the Saints have benched Spencer Rattler, but they've replaced with Tyler Shough. In his limited time on the field last week after Rattler was benched, he completed 17 of 30 pases for 128 yards and 1 INT. He has the unenviable taks of heading out to the west coast and facing the LA Rams, who rank 4th in the NFL in pressure rate (42.2%). While it's an EXTREMELY small sample size, Shough was just 1 of 7 for 6 yards with 2 sacks last week at home vs Tampa Bay when under duress. This is going to be a near impossible task for Shough to compete next week and to 100% transparent, it's going to be extremely dificult to find any spot to back with any degree of confidence considering this will be an entirely different environment on the road and he has zero experience with the New Orleans offense. One thing I couldn't possibly feel more confident about is that Tyler Shough is going to make some bad passes on Sunday in a hostile road environment. NO is a 14-point underdog, and quite honestly that is a very generous spread in my opinion. It wouldn't surprise me in the least bit to see the Sains get shutout in this game. With this realization, I would be willing to put a large some of money on the fact that we're going to see a bare minimum of 1 INT thrown by Shough at SoFI Stadium in week 9.

Suggested Bet:

Tyler Shough o0.5 Interceptions (-176)
Tyler Shough ALT 2+ Interceptions (+197)

RB Alvin Kamara

Even with the season ending injury to Kendre Miller, thereby giving Alvin Kamara full reign to work out of the Saints backfield, things somehow cointinue to go completely south for the New Orleans tailback. For starters, they continue to cast off a running back who has done nothing but produce his entire career with the Saints. This was evident with rookie Devin Neal picking up some work out of the backfield last week. Kamara touched the ball only 8 times last Sunday against Tampa Bay. The said thing is, very little of this falls on Kamara. Head coach Kellen Moore simply does not seem to value the RB position, and it's not going to take long for him to be handed a one-way ticket out of town if he doesn't make some progress very soon. Kamara still found a way to turn those 8 touches into 45 yards yards, giving him an average of 5.6 YPT. In his L6 games, Kamara is averaging just 55.5 YPG from scrimmage, not to mention only 3.2 YPC when running the football. I am absolutely dumbfounded that you have a guy in Kamara who has caught 600 of 759 career targets for an average of 8.2 YPP, and you have an inexperience QB who could take advantage of a player like this, yet Kellen Moore has chosen to shit all over him this year. He's been targeted only 31 times this year, catching 27 of the balls that have went his way. And it doesn't matter what the matchup is either. He had a great opportunity last week against a Tampa Bay team who is great against the run, but very vulnerable in the pass-catching game to opposing RBs, yet the Saints targeted their veteran RB just 2 times all game, and he turned those catches into 24 yards. I mean what they hell are you thinking? I simply cannot and will not back Kamara to hit any line until Moore comes to his senses, but I have no reason to believe that's going to happen when we're already in week 9. The problem with Kamara from a betting perspective is there is too much risk to play his unders, because the books are setting them so low.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

WR Chris Olave

Again, it's extremely hard to know what to expecet from any Saints skill player this week given what little expeirence Tyler Shough has as a starting QB. That said, Olave has had a premier role in the Saints offense all season long, despite horrendous play at the quarterback position. This was the case again last week when Olave managed to haul in 8 of 12 targets for 63 yards. The one constant for Olave is that he is averaging 10.5 targets per game. What we don't know is how will the move to Tyler Shough affect Olave's production on the field. In what little time the two spent together last week, the New Orleans WR caught 4 of 6 balls for 20 yards. The one positive going for Chris Olave this Sunday is the Rams do give up the 11th most receptions to opposing wide receivers (15.6). There is no way we can back his yardage on the road, but Olave has been consistent in catching balls all season and this is one spot that I'm confident in.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Olave o5.5 Receptions (-134)

WR Rashid Shaheed

The one plus from an individual player perspective last week was usage and volume for Rashid Shaheed. The Saints WR hadn't caught more than 4 passes since week one, but last Sunday his usage exploded, catching 9 balls for 75 yards, while being targeted a season-high 12 times! Now, we must understand this was only one game, but with Tyler Shough behind center, he looked Shaheed's way 27% of the time. It resulted in the Saints receiver catching 6 of 8 targets from the arm of Shough. Additionally, this is a game where New Orleans is going to be playing from behind, so that should aid in Rashid's volume this Sunday as the Saints will more than likely be throwing for the better part of the second half.

Suggested Bet:

Rashid Shaheed 40+ Rec Yards (-149)
Rashid Shaheed 50+ ALT Rec Yards (+114)
Rashid Shaheed 60+ ALT Rec Yards (+182)

TE Juwan Johnson

After coming out of the gate strong at TE position, Juwan Johnson was seemingly forgotten about for some unbeknownst reason, just another one of Kellen Moore's questionable decisions in '25. However, the New Orleans TE put together a pair of nice games over the past 2 weeks. He caught 5 balls for 79 yards (@ CHI) in week 7, before following it up with 5 catches for 53 yards (vs TB) in week 8. As we've discussed every week, Juwan Johnson continues to stay on the field consistently. This season, he has run a route over 83% of the time on Rattler/Shough's dropbacks and ranks 2nd among all NFL tight ends in RRPG with 33.9. With Shough running the offense, Johnson was targeted 6 times, where he caught 3 of those for 35 yards. With all of this said, it appears reality may be setting for Johnson this Sunday as the Rams have been one of the best teams in the NFL at putting the clamps down on opposing TE's, allowing only 5.6 YPT (3rd best). Johnson has still been targeted 7 and 8 times over his last 2 weeks and the Saints will be using a pass-heavy script in the back half of this game, so The Saints TE should hit his reception line here.

Suggested Bet:

Juwan Johnson o3.5 Receptions (-155)

Saints are a disaster right now. Give me the Rams 

Best Bet: Rams -13.5 -120
Lean: Under 43.5 -110
Score Prediction Saints 10 Rams 27

Anytime TD

First TD Scorer:

QB Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes remains in complete command, leading the league in total touchdowns and yards per play among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. He’s been notably efficient under pressure — the Bills’ greatest strength — posting 9.3 yards per attempt and a 5.8% completion percentage over expected when defenders close the pocket. Buffalo brings pressure on 45.6% of snaps, yet their blitz discipline often leaves open running lanes; Mahomes has already scrambled 34 times for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns on the year. Expect Andy Reid to lean on play-action and pre-snap motion to neutralize Buffalo’s front, while Mahomes manipulates zone coverage (Bills’ Cover 3 + Cover 2 blend at 51%) with layered reads.

Suggested Play:

'O' 28.5 Rush Yards (-125)

RB Isiah Pacheco/ RB Kareem Hunt

With Isiah Pacheco nursing a mild MCL sprain, Kareem Hunt projects to handle early-down and goal-line duties. Hunt’s decisive downhill style fits perfectly against Buffalo’s soft interior, which allows 114.3 rushing yards per game and ranks fifth in yards before contact per attempt (2.42). Expect Kansas City to attack light boxes via inside zone and counter, particularly near the red zone — an area where Hunt has scored five touchdowns over his last six games. If Pacheco is active, he’ll retain chunk-yard upside off-tackle, but Hunt’s physicality is built for short-yardage control.

Suggested Play:
Kareem Hunt Anytime TD (-105)

WR Rashee Rice

Rashee Rice has developed into Mahomes’ rhythm receiver, commanding 27% of team targets over the last two weeks. Against zone-heavy looks, Rice’s efficiency spikes to 3.52 yards per route run and 0.48 targets per route, elite production metrics. The Bills’ corners play soft cushions underneath, which opens the field for RPO slants, jet motions, and quick curls — exactly where Rice thrives. Expect him to continue serving as the chain-mover and red-zone focal point, particularly on designed tunnel screens that force Buffalo’s corners to tackle in space.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (-120)

WR Xavier Worthy

Xavier Worthy’s involvement continues to grow, running 83% of routes last week while producing several explosive plays. His speed can tilt Buffalo’s two-high shells, which rely on safeties closing late on crossers. Worthy’s splits show 1.83 YPRR and 0.25 TPRR versus Cover 2/3 — solid indicators for schemed shot plays. The Bills have allowed the sixth-highest completion rate on throws over 20 air yards (48%), and Worthy is the most likely candidate to stretch that secondary. Expect Kansas City to design at least one deep post or slot seam to capitalize on single-high disguises.

Suggested Play:
'O' 23.5 Yard Longest Reception (+100)

TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce reclaimed alpha status in Week 8, posting season-highs in targets (8), catches (6), and yards (99). Buffalo’s defensive structure — heavy zone rotations with linebackers bailing — is built to contain tight ends, but Kelce’s route manipulation remains unmatched. Against Cover 3 and Cover 2, he’s produced 2.20 YPRR and draws 0.20 targets per route on intermediate crossers. With Mahomes extending plays, Kelce’s improvisational chemistry often becomes the difference-maker in key third-down situations. Expect his volume to remain stable, even if Buffalo shadows him with safety help.

Suggested Play:
O 4.5 Receptions (-120)

QB Josh Allen

Through 7 games this season, last season’s MVP has averaged 222.9 passing yards per game, 7.92 YPA and a 68% completion rate. He’s thrown 12 TDs and 4 interceptions. He’ll face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs; who’s defense ranks 2^nd best in EPA/Pass and they are allowing the 3^rd fewest passing yards per game (177.8). The Chiefs have a 31.6% blitz rate (8^th highest) and are 4^th in pressure rate (43.9%). When Josh is pressured, he’s averaging 6.48 YPA and a 50% completion rate. The Chiefs play two-high at the 6^th highest rate in the NFL (57.2%). Against two-high, he’s averaging 7.50 YPA and a 71.1% completion rate. His average depth of target drops from 8.1 against single-high to 7.1 against two-high. In the running game, he’s averaging 7 attempts for 37.3 yards per game. He’s had 11+ attempts in 7 straight matchups against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are allowing the 2^nd most rushing yards to QB this season. Going against Patrick Mahomes typically brings the best out of you. The Bills are 2-point underdogs. When losing he has 24 attempts for 93 yards. When winning, he has rushed 16 times for 76 yards. This feels like the perfect primetime spot to target Josh in the running game.

Suggested Pick:

Over 7.5 Rush Attempts (-115)

Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-117)

10+ Rush Attempts (+205)

12+ Rush Attempts (+500)

50+ Rushing Yards (+175)

Anytime Touchdown (+110)

RB James Cook

James Cook leads the league in rushing yards pe game with 107.6 and YPC (5.98). He’s 4^th in the league in rushing TDs with 7. He has not been involved in the receiving game as of late, with a 29.4% and a 24% route participation rate last 2 weeks, with 0 receiving yards 3 straight games. His participation may increase in a primetime game against the Chiefs, as the coaching staff has said they have been trying to preserve him for later in the season. He’ll face a Chiefs defense that ranks 15^th in EPA/Rush and allow the 11^th fewest rushing yards per game. On a per carry basis, the Chiefs defense has been middle of the pack (4.37 YPC), but they are seeing a league-low 16 backfield rush attempts per game. The Chiefs have been much tougher against man/gap concept, allowing the 5^th lowest success rate (41%). That compares to the 7^th highest success rate against zone concept (50.5%).   53.2% of Cook’s attempts have been zone concept, where he’s averaging 6.54 YPC and a 68.7% success rate. That compares to 5.33 YPC and a 63.8% success rate in man/gap. I’m adding receiving to Cook’s rushing total as I think he has a lot of upside there and think the coaching staff uses him more there in a primetime game against the Chiefs. In a game with a 52.5 O/U, I’ll take Cook to score as well!

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (-125)

Over 88.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-114)

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir is averaging 50.9 receiving yards per game, 2.06 YPRR and 23% TPRR. He’s 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 20.9%. Shakir has lined up out of the slot on 69.4% of his routes. The Chiefs allow the 5^th fewest YPRR (1.43) and are 2^nd best in EPA/Pass allowed to the slot. The Chiefs have a 31.6% blitz rate (8^th highest) and are 4^th in pressure rate (43.9%). When Josh is blitzed, Shakir averages 2.88 YPRR, 20% TPRR and a 20.9% 1^st-read rate. The Chiefs play two-high at the 6^th highest rate in the NFL (57.2%). Shakir has negative splits against two-high, averaging 1.17 YPRR, 22% TPRR and a 20% 1^st-read rate. Shakir has 7, 8 and 6 targets for 44, 70 and 46 receiving yards respectively in his last 3 matchups against the Chiefs.

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (-135)

WR Keon Coleman

Coleman is averaging 38.1 receiving yards per game, 1.53 YPRR, 22% TPRR and is first on the team in 1^st-read rate at 25.6%. Keon has lined up out wide on 83.9% of his routes. The Chiefs allow the 12^th fewest YPRR (1.85) and are 15^th in EPA/pass allowed to wide alignment. The Chiefs have a 31.6% blitz rate (8^th highest) and are 4^th in pressure rate (43.9%). When Josh is blitzed, Coleman averages 1.64 YPRR, 25% TPRR and leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 30.2%. The Chiefs play two-high at the 6^th highest rate in the NFL (57.2%). Coleman averages 1.78 YPRR, 22% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 24% against two-high. Coleman was held to just 1 reception for 12 yards in his 1 matchup against the Chiefs.

Suggested Pick:

Under 41.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid averages 51.7 receiving yards per game, 2.84 YPRR and 25% TPRR. He’s third on the team in 1^st-read rate at 17.1%. The only issue for him is that he’s running a route on just 52.7% of dropbacks. Kincaid has lined up all over, 55% of the time from the slot, 22.9% from inline and 22% out wide. The Chiefs allow the 5^th fewest YPRR (1.43) and are 2^nd best in EPA/Pass allowed to the slot. The Chiefs allow the 12^th fewest YPRR (1.85) and are 15^th in EPA/pass allowed to wide alignment. The biggest vulnerability for the Chiefs is inline alignment, where they are allowing the 2^nd most YPRR (2.69) and rank 19^th in EPA/pass allowed to that alignment. The Chiefs have a 31.6% blitz rate (8^th highest) and are 4^th in pressure rate (43.9%). When Josh is blitzed, Kincaid averages 2.56 YPRR, 28% TPRR and a 20% 1^st-read rate. The Chiefs play two-high at the 6^th highest rate in the NFL (57.2%). Kincaid averages 2.11 YPRR, 24% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 17% against two-high. Kincaid did not seem right after coming back from an injury last season and he was held to just 13 yards in this matchup in the playoffs. In the game prior, he caught 5 receptions for 45 yards.

Suggested Pick

Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Mahomes is 1-4 against Josh Allen in the regular season. Now he is 4-0 against him in the Playoffs. The Chiefs don't throw everything they got against these guys during the regular season which gives the Bills the edge. I think the same happens here again and the Bills beat the Chiefs @Home

Best Bet: Bills +3.5 -165
Lean: Under 52.5 -125
Score Prediction Chiefs 21 Bills 24

Anytime TD

Josh Allen (Bills) +110

Josh Allen has rushed 11+ times in 7 straight matchups against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are allowing the 2^nd most rushing yards to QB this season. Josh has 4 touchdowns in his last 4 games against the Chiefs. Playing against the best QB in the NFL brings the best out of him and this is a huge game for the final standings.

Kareem Hunt (Chiefs) -105

With Isiah Pacheco nursing a mild MCL sprain, Kareem Hunt projects to handle early-down and goal-line duties. Hunt’s decisive downhill style fits perfectly against Buffalo’s soft interior, which allows 114.3 rushing yards per game and ranks fifth in yards before contact per attempt (2.42). Expect Kansas City to attack light boxes via inside zone and counter, particularly near the red zone — an area where Hunt has scored five touchdowns over his last six games. If Pacheco is active, he’ll retain chunk-yard upside off-tackle, but Hunt’s physicality is built for short-yardage control.

First TD Scorer:

James Cook (Bills) +550

James Cook has scored a touchdown in 5 of 7 games this season and in 75% in his last 20. The Chiefs have been middle of the pack against the run but have been excellent against the pass. Cook has scored twice in back-to-back matchups against the Chiefs. One of these was in the first quarter. I expect the Bills to want to keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hand and pound the rock early and often.

Rashee Rice (Chiefs) +640

Buffalo’s defense, while disciplined, struggles early in games against motion-heavy offenses. Opposing slot receivers have accounted for five first-quarter touchdowns in the last six contests, largely due to miscommunication in their rotating zone coverages. Rice’s quick burst on option slants and tunnel screens directly exploits those soft spots between nickel and linebacker leverage. Expect Andy Reid to use early RPOs and condensed formations to create isolation looks for Rice near the pylon — a design Kansas City has leaned on repeatedly this season. If the Chiefs’ first drive reaches the red zone, Rice is the most likely beneficiary of a quick-strike scoring call.

Parlay #1 (Bills) +1000

Josh Allen 10+ Rush Attempts

Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown

James Cook Anytime Touchdown

Parlay #2 (Chiefs) +415

Rashee Rice ATD

Travis Kelce 'O' 4.5 Receptions

Patrick Mahomes 'O' 28.5 Rush Yards

QB Sam Darnold
Darnold is quietly having a career year, completing 131 of 192 passes (68.2%) for 1,754 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just 4 interceptions. Last week, he completed 17 of 31 passes for 213 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. His advanced metrics are elite, particularly his league-leading 9.14 yards per attempt and 13.4 yards per completion. He boasts an impressive 109.2 passer rating, a low 4.4% sack rate, and an excellent 10.0 aDOT (1st in the league). He also ranks 6th in adjusted completion percentage (79.7%) and 9th in 1st read percentage (69.3%). The matchup against the Washington Commanders is favorable. Darnold ranks 1st in pass grading off of play action this season, and the Commanders are allowing the 3rd most yards per play off of play action. On his play-action dropbacks, Darnold is averaging a league-high 13.7 yards per attempt and a hilarious 20.9 yards per completion. Against play action, Washington is allowing 8.5 yards per attempt (9th) and an 8.3% touchdown rate (7th). Furthermore, Darnold grades as the 3rd highest quarterback against single-high coverage, and the Commanders run single-high at the 4th highest rate. Washington also plays man coverage at the 8th highest rate (30.0%), which Darnold can exploit. This matchup sets up really well for Darnold and I expect him and his top target to eat in this one.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-135)

RB Kenneth Walker III
On the season, Walker has rushed 95 times for 430 yards (4.5 YPC) and 3 touchdowns, adding 8 catches on 9 targets for 61 yards. Last week, he had a significant workload with 17 carries for 66 yards but zero receptions. His advanced metrics are a blend of strong and weak points: he ranks 16th in YPC (4.53) but a very impressive 3rd in explosive run rate (8.4%), indicating he can break off big plays. However, his 1.89 yards after contact per attempt (31st) and 47.4% stuff rate (23rd) show he struggles when not hitting those big runs. The matchup against the Washington Commanders for the run game is somewhat favorable. Washington has allowed the 10th most rushing yards per game (128.8) and a high explosive run rate of 5.6%, suggesting opportunities for Walker to hit those big runs he excels at. Their yards per carry allowed is more middling (14th). With a low stuff rate of 40.8% (25th) by this Commanders defensive front, Seattle should be committed to the run. The major caveat for Walker's overall production, and a reason to fade receiving props, is his limited role in the passing game and redzone. Sam Darnold has thrown to running backs on a league-low 8.9% of his attempts. I think there is two good ways to attack this and it’s with one over and one under!

Suggested Picks
Longest Rush ‘O’ 13.5 Yards (-110)
‘U’ 1.5 Receptions (-138)

RB Zach Charbonnet
To this point, Charbonnet has rushed 72 times for 205 yards (a low 2.8 YPC) and an impressive 5 touchdowns, adding 6 catches on 7 targets for 36 yards. Last week he tallied 12 carries for 49 yards and 2 crucial rushing touchdowns, along with 2 catches for 6 yards. His advanced rushing metrics are brutal, ranking 37th in YPC (2.85), 28th in explosive run rate (2.8%), and 31st in stuff rate (50.0%) among qualified running backs.  However, Charbonnet's role in the offense, particularly in short-yardage and in the red zone is clear. In games where both he and Kenneth Walker are available, Charbonnet has actually out-snapped Walker, playing 54.1% of offensive snaps compared to Walker's 41.4%.We saw a little life out of Charb last week, but he’s not an explosive back that can take advantage of a unique matchup like this.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown (+125)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
On the season, JSN has been dominant, leading the league with 50 catches on 70 targets (71.4%) for an incredible 819 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. Last week was another masterclass, as he hauled in 8 catches for 123 yards on 14 targets, including a touchdown. His advanced metrics are simply staggering: a massive 34.7% target share, an astonishing 46.3% of team receiving yards, and a near 50% air yardage share. He averages 16.38 yards per reception and has an elite 127.0 passer rating when targeted. JSN primarily lines up out wide (79.3%) this season after spending most of his time in the slot prior. The matchup against the Washington Commanders is a dream scenario for JSN, perfectly aligning with his strengths. The Commanders have struggled significantly against top wide receivers, allowing the 4th most receiving yards per game to the position. More specifically, JSN leads the NFL with 332 receiving yards on play-action passes, averaging an insane 6.64 yards per route run on those plays. Given that Sam Darnold ranks 1st in pass grading off play action and Washington allows the 3rd most yards per play off play action, this connection is poised for massive production. At this point, JSN's lines might be set high due to his incredible season and favorable matchup, meaning "value" might be harder to find in the traditional sense. However, this is not a spot to fade him.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (-135)

WR Cooper Kupp
Kupp is questionable for Sunday's game with both heel and hamstring injuries and did not practice on Friday. We’ll have to monitor if he suits up, but if he does this is an interesting spot for him. On the season, Kupp has been efficient when healthy, catching 24 of 33 targets (72.7%) for 293 yards and 1 touchdown. Last week, he had a very limited role, securing just 1 catch for 32 yards on 1 target. Kupp splits his alignment almost evenly between out wide (47.7%) and the slot (50.8%). He  owns a 15.8% target share, 12.21 yards per reception, and a strong 5.71 yards after catch per reception. He also has a solid 19.3% first-read percentage. The matchup against the Washington Commanders is favorable for Kupp if he plays. Kupp has had more success against single-high coverage compared to two-high, and Washington runs single-high at the 4th highest rate this season. Kupp plays a significant amount in the slot, where Washington has allowed a league-high 10.7 yards per target. If Kupp goes, I think this is a sneaky spot for some overs in a matchup that fits his strengths and usage.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE A.J. Barner
This year Barner has been solid, catching 18 of 22 targets (81.8%) for 212 yards and an impressive 4 touchdowns. Last week, he had a quiet outing with 1 catch for 7 yards on 3 targets, but his overall season efficiency, especially in the redzone, cannot be ignored. Barner primarily aligns inline (86.6%), making him a traditional tight end. His advanced metrics are solid, with 11.8 yards per reception, 4.70 yards after the catch per reception, and a 7.6 aDOT. Crucially, he leads the Seahawks with 6 redzone targets and commanding 22.7% of Seattle's redzone targets. The matchup against the Washington Commanders for tight ends is somewhat mixed. While Washington generally limits tight end volume, allowing the 8th fewest targets (6.5 per game) and 10th fewest receptions (5.0 per game), they are surprisingly vulnerable in terms of yardage, allowing the 11th most receiving yards (61.1 per game) to the position. A key point of strength for Barner is his performance from inline alignments; he ranks 3rd among tight ends in receiving yards from inline, and Washington ranks 4th in receiving yards allowed to inline tight ends this season. Given the matchup and Barner’s usage, his receiving prop over is tempting, along with his touchdown prop.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels is back and should massively boost the Commanders' efficiency. Daniels enters this week’s matchup with Seattle facing one of the most zone-heavy defences in the NFL. The Seahawks allow plenty of passing volume, ranking 1st in pass attempts allowed (39.4) and 3rd in completions allowed (25.7) per game, which has led opponents to pile up the 8th-most passing yards (253.7) per contest. However, that heavy workload has come without a huge touchdown payout, as Seattle has still limited teams to the 13th fewest passing TDs (1.6) per game. The Seahawks’ coverage identity is crystal clear — they play zone coverage on 80.1% of their defensive snaps, the third-highest rate in the league. They rotate between Cover 4 (19.3%) and Cover 6 (16.8%). So far this season, Daniels has completed 72.2% of his passes against zone coverage, ranking 11th among qualified quarterbacks, and posted a 96.6 QBR, good for 15th overall. He averages just 136.4 passing yards per game against zone-heavy looks, the ninth fewest in the league. Against Cover 4, Daniels has been elite. He’s completed an incredible 91.1% of his passes, posting the second-highest yards per attempt (12.0) and the 5th-best QBR (116.6) among quarterbacks with at least 15 dropbacks against that look. However, Cover 6 has been a different story. Against the coverage, Daniels has completed just 50% of his passes, with the second-lowest yards per attempt (4.38) among all starting quarterbacks. This is a strong matchup for Daniels to continue his strong passing efficiency.

Suggested pick:

Jayden Daniels o21.5 Pass Completions (-110)

Jayden Daniels 25+ Pass Completions (+260)

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt / Jeremy McNichols

Jacory Croskey-Merritt draws one of his toughest matchups of the season against a Seattle defence that has been lights-out against the run but vulnerable through the air. The Seahawks have held opposing backfields in check all year, allowing the 9th fewest rushing attempts (19.1) and the 2nd fewest rushing yards (57.2) per game. The Seahawks operate primarily out of zone-based run defence, using that concept on 48.8% of snaps compared to 35.4% man/gap. Against zone, they’ve been elite, allowing just 2.88 yards per carry, the lowest mark in the league. Even when teams attack with man/gap blocking, Seattle holds strong, giving up only 3.53 yards per carry, the fourth fewest in the NFL. However, Croskey-Merritt has been productive against both zone and gap looks, averaging 4.93 yards per carry versus zone concepts and 4.89 yards per carry versus man/gap. Where things open up for opposing backfields is in the passing game. Seattle is giving up the most receptions (6.7) and the 2nd most receiving yards (51.3) per game to the position. However, that's not really Croskey-Merritt's game, as he just seven receptions on nine targets all season. That's where McNichols comes in. He has been the receiving back in this offence, logging 10 receptions on his 13 targets for 117 receiving yards in just the last three weeks. It should be a strugglesome night for Croskey-Merritt on the ground, but a positive one for McNichols through the air.

Suggested Pick:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt u47.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Jeremy McNichols o16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Jeremy McNichols 30+ Receiving Yards (+250)

WR Deebo Samuel

Another week without Terry McLaurin presents Deebo with the opportunity to be the teams No. 1 receiving option, but now with Daniels under centre. The Seahawks have allowed the 12th-most receptions (12.3) per game but have managed to limit big plays, ranking 14th-fewest in receiving yards (139) allowed per game. That fits perfectly for Samuel's high-volume, short-area-of-the-field style of game. Against zone coverage, where Seattle operates on over 80% of its defensive snaps, Samuel has been at his most efficient. He’s caught 28 of 34 targets for 244 receiving yards on 130 routes this season, earning the highest target share (24.8%) on the Commanders. Samuel’s 82.8% catch rate and 6.3 yards after catch per reception against zone further illustrate his projected success in this matchup. Seattle’s heavy reliance on Cover 4 and Cover 6 could actually work in his favour. Against Cover 4, Samuel has caught 7 of 8 targets for 63 yards on just 21 routes this year. He’s also been perfect against Cover 6, going 2-for-2 for 18 yards on limited volume. While Deebo’s production tends to dip in terms of vertical efficiency — he averages 10.6 yards per reception and 1.7 yards per route run against zone — his usage in the slot keeps him heavily involved. He’s lined up inside on 63.2% of his snaps, and that could be where he does most of his damage. The Seahawks have been targeted at the 11th highest rate (78) by slot receivers, allowing a 70.5% catch rate and 10.6 yards per reception. Expect his regular usage against a team that struggles to limit players like Samuel.

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel o5.5 Receptions (-115)

WR Luke McCaffrey

Well, Terry lasted about a week. But at least we've now seen McCaffrey take over as the two in this offence when he's out. He’s been exceptional against zone this season, hauling in 9 of 10 targets for 200 receiving yards on 66 routes this season: his 90% catch rate and 2.2 yards per route run against zone also stand out. Against Cover 4, he’s caught 3 of 4 targets for 65 yards on only 11 routes, displaying his deep threat ability. McCaffrey’s 56.2% of snaps out wide could limit his overall efficiency this week, however, as Seattle has been effective against boundary receivers. The Seahawks are targeted at the 14th highest rate (98) by outside WRs, but they’ve allowed the 11th fewest yards per game (91.3) and the second lowest yards per reception (11.2). That's not an ideal situation for the deep threat McCaffrey, however, his receiving yards line is too low for a guy who ran over 50% of the snaps last week, more than both Chris Moore and Jaylin Lane – his two biggest competitors for snaps with McLaurin out.

Suggested pick:

Luke McCaffrey o25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz enters Week 7 in a strong position to capitalize against a Seahawks defence that has struggled to contain opposing TEs. The Seahawks have allowed the 4th most receptions (6.7) and 8th most receiving yards (63.4) per game to tight ends this season, and they continue to run zone at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Ertz has been highly efficient against zone looks in 2025, catching 20 of 24 targets for 201 yards on 129 routes. His 81.8% catch rate and 1.47 yards per route run in those situations are well above his man-coverage splits, and his 10.7 yards per reception suggest he’s not just catching short dump-offs. Against Cover 4, which Seattle runs often, he’s been especially effective, recording 6 catches on 7 targets for 50 yards on just 19 routes. Ertz lines up in the slot on 60.6% of his snaps this season, opposite of Deebo. With Daniels back under centre and the Seahawks struggling to contain slot receivers, it should be a bounce-back effort for Ertz after a poor 16-yard outing last week.

Suggested pick:

Zach Ertz o3.5 Receptions (-170)

I think this will be a shootout. 

Best Bet: Over 48.5 -120
Lean: Commanders +3.5 -125
Score Prediction Seahawks 24 Commanders 30

Anytime TD

Best Bet (Seahawks): Zach Charbonnet +125
Although Walker and Charb have found themselves in a near 50/50 split, one thing has become clear. Zach is the preferred option in short yardage situations and inside the redzone. He's coming off a two touchdown game against a good HOU defense and 5 total on the season.

Best Pick: (Commanders): Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+140)

Deebo is a Seahawks killer. Over his past seven games, Deebo is average a TD per game against his former division foe. Samuel leads the Commanders in inside the 20 targets (6) and end zone targets (5) this season.

First TD Scorer:

Longshot (Seahawks): A.J. Barner +1400
Barner has been a go-to guy in the redzone and I like this matchup for him as this WAS team has to worry about so many other pieces. Barner ranks 3rd among tight ends in receiving yards from inline and Washington ranks 4th in receiving yards allowed to inline tight ends this season. I think this could be useful in the redzone as well. Barner leads this team with 6 redzone targets.

Best Pick: (Commanders) Zach Ertz First TD (+850)

Ertz has scored in four games this season, three of which came with Daniels as his QB. With him back, and going up against a Seahawks defence who allow a lot of work to opposing TEs, he could find the end zone early for the Commanders, with Daniels relying on one of his favourite targets.

Parlay #1 (Seahawks) +293
Sam Darnold 225+ Passing Yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 80+ Receiving Yards
Zach Charbonnet TD

Parlay 1: (Commanders) +200 odds on bet365

Jeremy McNichols 20+ Receiving Yards

Deebo Samuel 5+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Seahawks) +1117
A.J. Barner TD
A.J. Barner 40+ Rec Yards
Kenneth Walker Most Rushing Yards

QB Jacoby Brissett

Jacoby Brissett will get the start tonight at quarterback for Arizona, however head coach Jonathan Gannon threw us a curveball when he announced that Kyler Murray (foot sprain) could have a role tonight. This gave me a very uneasy feeling at first, but the more I look into this game I think we have even more added value on Brissett's props. The Cardinals are coming into MNF as a 3.5 point road underdog and we have an expected over/under point total sitting at 53.5. With an Arizona backfield that is currently in shambles and a Cowboys Dallas pass defense that has been atrocious all season, this all points in the direction of a pass heavy approach. In 2 starts this season, Brissett has looked very comfortable and played extremely well in this Cardinals offense. I am specifically targeting his over 22.5 pass completions for this game. Brissett has cleared this spot in both of his starts this season. In week 6, he completed 27 of 44 passes at Indianapolis and 25 of 36 in week 7 vs Green Bay. Jonathan Gannon's offense has leaned on quick, high percentage throws all year in order to stay competitive in all of their close losses. Now, Brissett has the luxury of a great matchup tonight in Dallas, where the Cowboys defense has surrendered the 2nd most pass YPG (258.6) and 2nd most pass TD per game (2.2). Opposing QBs have are completing 69.0% of passes against DAL, and this is due to the Cowboys relying heavily on zone coverage for 85% of their defensive snaps. This inflates short completion rates, which is ideal for Jacoby Brissett's check down style that has been quiet efficient (7.4 YPA) for him in '25. When you take all of this and see that Dallas allows the 11th most pass completions (23.0) on the 14th most pass attempts (33.5) to opposing QBs it doesn't take a genius to figure out that Brissett is finding himself in a dream matchup against a bottom 10 Cowboys pass defense, which has the the 8th worst EPA/pass play allowed. In only 2 starts, Brissett has built wonderful rapport with the Cardinals pass catchers, and it's no wonder. Jacoby threw for 320 yards in his very first start this season, something Kyler Murray hasn't done in 66 games! Nobody has given up more plays of 20+ pass yards than Dallas, and Brissett two starts have produced 6 plays of 20+ yards, however 65% of his completions have come on underneath throws. He also has an extremely low INT rate, throwing just one pick in his last 126 atempts. He has a full compliment of receivers who are all fully healthy and this all shapes up for him to shatter this line with relative ease.

Suggested Bet:

Jacoby Brissett o22.5 Completions (-123)

Jacoby Brissett 2+ Pass TD (-152)
Jacoby Brissett 3+ Pass TD (-242)

RB Bam Knight

Bam Knight has a solid matchup on the ground tonight when faces the Cowboys, however Arizona just simply does not like to run the football. The Cardinals stil plan to use Knight on early downs with Emari Demercado resuming his role in the pass-catching game, which we're expecting to see a lot of tonight. Another major issue here is that Knight is averaging just 3.4 YPC, and while Dallas has not been good against the run, we've seen Arizona have similar matchups and it still hasn't yielded positive results in the running game. With regard to running plays of 5+ yards or more, the Cardinals rank 31st in the league. 

Suggested Bet:

Pass

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

This is an excellent opportunity for Marvin Harrison Jr. to showcase his best performance of the season under the bright lights of MNF in Big-D. Aside from a great matchup, MHJ will have Jacoby Brissett under center, where the Arizona WR has has seen his first read targets increase by more than 10%.One obviousArizona is giving the ball to Jacoby Brissett. In his initial game, Harrison Jr. managed only 32 yards, but he had to leave the with over 6:00 left in the 2nd quarter after sustaining a concussion. He returned the following week, where he recorded 58 yards on 6 targets against the Packers. Now, MHJ has arguably his most favorable matchup of the entire season when he meets Dallas, who is still without the services of CB Trevon Diggs. I absolutely love Harrison Jr. to clear his set line of 59.5 receiving yards in primetime tonight. This season, the Cowboys are giving up 3rd highest number of receiving yards to opposing WR, and a receiver has surpassed this line in 6 of the last 7 weeks against DAL. They have absolutely been lit up all season long in a laundry list that includes, Malik Nabors (167), Wan'Dale Robinson (142), Luther Burden (101), Troy Franklin (89), Garrett Wilson (71), Courtland Sutton (67), Rome Odunze (62), Darius Slayton (61) and Jaylin Lane (60). The Cowboys utilize zone coverage at the 6th highest frequency in the NFL (85.0%), where MHJ performs significantly better, boasting a 1.99 YPRR and .115 separation score. His 14.9% win rate vs zone coverage ranks 6th among all NFL wide receivers with over 100 routes run this season. It should also be pointed out that against outside receivers (where Harrison plays rougly 80% of his snaps), the Cowboys are allowing the 2nd most YPT (11.1) and 2nd highest TD rate (12.4%). Harrison's 3.5 total receptions line is highly juiced at -172, giving it a strong likelihood of hitting the over. In the 3 games this year in which MHJ has caught 4 balls or more, he has surpassed this line, posting receiving totals of 71, 66 and 98 yards. This is a very promising scenario for Harrison in a pass heavy script, where Arizona is coming in as a 3.5 point underdog with a set total of 53.5. Both teams also rank among the top 10 in the league in terms of pace, providing numerous chances for plays to develop. All year long, the Dallas defense has been a favorable target for passing offenses and I expect Marvin Harrison Jr. to capitalize on this with with the opportunity (much like Drake London yesterday) to deliver an outstanding performance.

Suggested Bet:

Marvin Harrison Jr. o3.5 Receptions (-172)

Marvin Harrison Jr. o59.5 Rec Yards (-110)

WR Zay Jones

Zay Jones is one of my favorite spots of the night for Arizona. He's coming off a bye week, which has helped him to recover from his recent injury and he had no limitations at all this week in practice. Zay's reception line of 1.5 is fairly juiced at -142, but I would go so far as to say this line is absolutely criminal. Jones has an incredible connection with starting QB Jacoby Brissett. In the two games Brissett has started, he's targeted Jones 10 times, where he posted 5-79 (@ IND) and 2-67 (vs GB). 5 of his 7 catches have been for 17+ yards, and Zay recorded long receptions of 24 and 43 yards in those two games. He's capable of taking short passes and breaking away for big chunks, while also beating defenders down field on long throws. This game has a very similar script to the one Arizona had at Indianapolis, and I like the chemistry he and Brissett have shown.

Suggested Bet:

Zay Jones o1.5 Receptions (-142)

Zay Jones o21.5 Rec Yards (-111)
Zay Jones 40+ ALT Rec Yards (+230)

Zay Jones o12.5 Longest Receptions (-115)

TE Trey McBride

The narrative remains the same for Trey McBride no matter who Arizona has playing quarterback. That said, nobody on the Cardinals roster benefited more than McBride when Brissett was placed under center. In 2 games played alongside Jacoby Brissett, the Arizona TE posted games of 8-72-1 (@ IND) and 10-74-2 (vs GB). McBride logged 11 and 13 targets, respectively in those two games. Most astonishingly, McBride has caught just 5 TDs in 39 games with Kyler Murray, and he's already found the end zone 3 times in 2 starts by Brissett in '25. But isn't there some reason behind this? The clear answer is yes, and it goes directly back to the play-action splits that I broke down in detail two weeks ago in my ARI @ GB game guide. Trey McBride ranks 2nd in the NFL, only to Jaxon Smith-Njigba (35.5%) in target share on play-action passes. Now, we may get a few snaps from Murray tonight, but overall we should still see excellent production out of McBride against a Cowboys defense who is giving up the 10th most receptions (6.0), along with a 79.5% catch rate (5th highest) to opposing TEs.

Suggested Bet:

Trey McBride o6.5 Receptions (-143)
Trey McBride 8+ ALT Receptions (+125)
Trey McBride 9+ ALT Receptions (+213)

Anytime TD

Best Play (Cardinals):  Marvin Harrison Jr. +130

After a slow day at Indianapolis in week 6, Marvin Harrison Jr. regained his target share involvement in the Arizona offense vs Green Bay the following week. MHJ is running a route on 83.6% of QB dropbacks in the Cardinals offense, and he's been lined up out wide for 80.1% of those. Harrison is coming into MNF fresh off a bye, and he will face a Cowboys defense that concedes the 2nd highest TD rate to outside receivers (12.5%) in the NFL.

First TD Scorer:

Best Play (Cardinals):  Trey McBride +850

The biggest indictment on the quarterback play of Kyler Murray can be found right here. In 39 games with Murray under center, Trey McBride has found the end zone just 5 times. In only 2 career games played with Jacoby Brissett at QB, McBride has hauled in 3 TDs! In these past two games with Brissett, the Arizona TE has been targeted 24 times, where he's hauled in 18 catches for 146 yards and 3 scores. And yes, for those who do some of their own research I'm well aware Dallas has surrendered just 2 TD to opposing tight ends in '25, but prior to playing Indianapolis and Green Bay, they also had each allowed only 2 touchdowns to the TE position.

Longshot (Cardinals):  Greg Dortch +3500

In the 2 starts Jacob Brissett has made for Arizona, he has thrown 4 TDs, and every single one of them has gone to a Cardinals tight end. Both Trey McBride and Greg Dortch each caught a TD in week 6 at IND, and as I documented above, McBride caught both in week 7 at GB. There are exceptions, but the lion share of touchdowns caught from the TE position are a byproduct of play-action, and this is Brissett's bread and butter.

Best Bet:
Lean: 
Score Prediction 

Parlay #1 (Cardinals):  Best Play +440  DK

Jacoby Brissett 22+ Completions

Jacoby Brissett 2+ Pass TDs

Marvin Harrison Jr. 60+ Rec Yards

Trey McBride 7+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Cardinals):  Longshot +4730  DK

Marvin Harrison Jr. 70+ Rec Yards

Marvin Harrison Jr. 2+ TDs

Trey McBride 8+ Receptions

Trey McBride Anytime TD

Parlay #3 (MNF TD):  Longshot +4378  FD

Javonte Williams (DAL) 2+ TDs

CeeDee Lamb (DAL) Anytime TD

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) Anytime TD

Trey McBride (ARI) Anytime TD