QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua is averaging 189.8 passing yards per game, 6.57 YPA and has a 68.8% completion rate. He’s thrown 15 TDs and 10 interceptions. He threw 4 touchdown passes against a Falcons pass defense last week that ranked 5^th best in EPA/Pass. He’ll now face a Ravens defense on a short week that ranks 8^th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 5^th most passing yards per game. The Ravens have the 6^th lowest pressure rate (32.5%). Against pressure, Tua is averaging 4.45 YPA and a 50% completion rate. That compares to 7.25 YPA and a 74.9% completion rate in a clean pocket. From a schematic perspective, the Ravens have played single-high at the 4^th highest rate (61.4%) and man coverage at the 3^rd highest rate (39.4%). Against single-high, Tua averages 6.44 YPA and a 57.4% completion rate. Against man, Tua averages 5.90 YPA and a 65% completion rate. These are both negative splits from a schematic perspective. In Tua’s last 10 home games, he’s averaging 256.5 passing yards. That compares to 201.9 on the road. This game is at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Lamar is expected to return for Baltimore, and the Dolphins are 7.5-point underdogs as a result.  This should be a pass first attack for Tua and the Dolphins.

Suggested Pick:

Over 214.5 Passing Yards (-115)

RB De’Von Achane

Achane averages 67.4 rushing yards per game on 5.04 YPC. He is 6^th in the league amongst RBs with 50+ attempts in explosive run rate (7.5%). He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 4^th worst in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 10^th most rushing yards per game (128.9). The Ravens have sizable splits between man/gap and zone concept runs They are allowing the 3^rd most YPC (5.61) against man/gap, compared to the 4^th fewest YPC (3.37) against zone concept runs. Only 37.4% of Achane’s attempts have been in man/gap, but he has been more productive in these concepts. He’s averaging 5.63 YPC and a 47.5% success rate. That compares to 4.57 YPC and a 41% success rate against zone concept. In the receiving game, Achane is averaging 29.4 yards per game, but that is skewed by a 92-yard game week 2 against the Patriots. Outside of that game, he has not had over 30 receiving yards once. He’ll face a Ravens defense that is 11^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed to the backfield, allowing the 7^th most receiving yards per game to the position (36). From a schematic perspective, the Ravens have played single-high at the 4^th highest rate (61.4%) and man coverage at the 3^rd highest rate (39.4%). Against single-high, Achane averages 0.97 YPRR and 28% TPRR, compared to 1.57 YPRR and 27% TPRR against two-high. Against man, he’s averaging 1.27 YPRR and 23% TPRR, compared to 1.32 YPRR and 28% TPRR against zone.

Suggested Pick:

Over 89.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-135)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Prior to Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, Waddle averaged 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.75 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 25.6% 1^st-read rate. In the 4 games without Tyreek, Waddle is averaging 79.8 receiving yards per game, 3.16 YPRR, 27% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 28.7%. 1 of the 4 games included a nasty weather game against the Browns where he ended with 15 yards. Waddle has lined up out wide on 78.2% of his routes since the Tyreek injury. The Dolphins are 9^th worst in EPA/Pass and have allowed the 8^th most receiving yards per game (116) to wide alignment. From a schematic perspective, the Ravens have played single-high at the 4^th highest rate (61.4%) and man coverage at the 3^rd highest rate (39.4%). On the season, Waddle is averaging 3.08 YPRR and 30% TPRR against single-high. That compares to 1.92 YPRR and 18% TPRR against two-high. Against man, Waddle is averaging 1.89 YPRR and 29% TPRR, which are negative production splits, but his YPRR is higher than Tyreek Hill. That compares to 2.69 YPRR and 24% TPRR against zone. In a losing game-script, I like Waddle to go over his receiving line.

Suggested Pick:

Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Anytime Touchdown (+155)

WR Malik Washington

In the 4 games post Tyreek Hill’s season ending injury, Washington has run a route on 60.7% of dropbacks. He has seen 5+ targets in all 4 games but hasn’t been productive with this volume until the last 2. He caught 5 receptions for 30 yards against the Browns (bad weather) and 4 receptions for 36 yards and a touchdown last week against the Falcons. He’s seeing a lot of short targets, with an average depth of target of 4 yards. He’s lined up from the slot on 51.8% of his routes since the Tyreek injury. The Ravens are 6^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and are allowing the 10^th most receiving yards per game (76.3) to the slot. From a schematic perspective, the Ravens have played single-high at the 4^th highest rate (61.4%). Last season, in a larger sample size, Malik averaged 1.42 YPRR and 19% TPRR against single-high compared to 0.78 YPRR and 16% TPRR against two-high. As 7.5-point underdogs and consistent targets with a low aDOT, I like his receptions.

Suggested Pick:

Over 3.5 Receptions (-118)

TE Tanner Conner/Greg Dulcich

In week 7 with Darren Waller leaving early with an injury, Conner and Hill both ran 11 routes. Tanner caught 1 of 3 targets for 28 yards. Hill caught 1 of 2 targets for 1 yard. From weeks 1-3 prior to Waller making his debut, Conner ran a route on 53.7% of dropbacks, while Hill ran a route on just 20.4% of drop backs. In week 8, Julian Hill sat out with an injury, so Greg Dulcich received some playing time. Julian Hill looks unlikely to play this week as well. Conner had a 28.6% route participation rate, while Dulcich was at 25%. Conner caught 2 of 2 targets for 6 yards, while Dulcich did not receive a target. The Ravens have allowed the 13^th most fantasy points per game to TE and neither of these options are worth betting on.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

Best Bet:
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Score Prediction 

Anytime TD

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) +150

Since the Tyreek Hill season-ending injury, Waddle has been the clear number 1 option for Tua. He has 90+ receiving yards in 3 of 4 games, and the 1 under was in bad weather, a game with a combined 216 passing yards from both QBs. He reached the end zone last week against Atlanta and will face a Ravens defense that has allowed the 3^rd most receiving TDs to WRs (10). The Dolphin’s are 7.5-point underdogs so the Dolphins should be forced to throw the rock.

First TD Scorer

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) +550

If the Dolphins score early, Achane is the most likely to be the guy to put them into the end zone. The Ravens rank 4^th worst in EPA/Rush and have allowed the 10^th most rushing yards per game. They also have negative splits against Achane’s more productive rush type (man/gap).  The one concern I have for Achane this game is a losing game-script, but early in the game it will be neutral so like the value of Achane scoring first.

Parlay #1 (Dolphins): +327

Tua Tagovailoa 225+ Passing Yards

De’Von Achane 90+ Rush+Receiving Yards

Jaylen Waddle Over 63.5 Receiving Yards

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QB Bo Nix 
Nix has had a below average season for Denver this year holding a 91.0 QB Rating which ranks #10/16 QB’s with 300+ Dropbacks on the season to go with a 62.8% completion % #12/16 and 6.33 YPA ranking #12/16 as well. Now over the last 2 weeks this offense has really clicked but it’s really been on the ground for this team averaging a ridiculous 6.17 YPC having 24 & 28 ATT. Nix in these 2 games held a 58.2% CMP% averaging just 6.66 YPA. The Broncos and Bo Nix face a VERY VERY tough challenge facing Texans who have allowed just 196.4 passing yards per game which is the 4th FEWEST and a crazy 70.7 QB rating which is by far the best. They are also allowing just a 58.1% CMP% which is the 2nd LOWEST and that does not bode well for Nix in this one. The Texans over the last 2 weeks have allowed 36/64 attempts to be complete. Nix gets a 222.5 passing yards line which only 1/7 QB’s have got against the Texans. While doing all of this what is most impressive to me is how they limit QB Scrambles as well allowing just 9 (2nd FEWEST). Now one area they are bad at is allowing big scramble runs which could burn ya if you back his rushing props so I’m staying away. Texans use a very heavy dose of zone coverage (79.8%) which is the 4th highest running Cover 3 30.2% Cover 4 27.3%. Nix against those 2 coverages holds a 84.9 QB rating which ranks #19/24 QB’s with 100+ DB’s against these coverages. I think Nix struggles in this spot 

Suggested Pick
Bo Nix ‘U’ 222.5 Pass Yds -125

RB JK Dobbins 
This guy right here has been the strength for the Broncos as 5/8  weeks he has finished the game with 5.4+ YPC. This week he will be facing a Texans run defense who have allowed just 3.52 YPC ranking #6/32 and 1.37 yards before contact ranking #5/32. Over there last 3 weeks they have been even better allowing 3.12 YPC and 1.03 yards before contact. I feel like this is a come back down to earth spot for Dobbins and this Denver broncos offense as a whole. 

Suggested Pick 
JK Dobbins ‘U’ 66.5 Rush Yds -135
JK Dobbins ‘U’ Long Rush 

WR Courtland Sutton 
Sutton has been VERY impressive over the last 2 weeks having 87 & 67 yards in 10 & 6 targets. My only concerns is those were against teams that were vulnerable against wideout receivers in the Giants who have allowed 122.9 per game and the Cowboys giving up 131.1 to wideouts. Sutton this season has ran out of the wideout 76.5% of the time and the Texans have just shut down wideouts allowing 91 rec yds per game #10/32 with just 1.72 YPRR ranking #4/32 and 47 receptions #4/32. 9 of Suttons 10 receptions over the last 2 weeks have came out of the the wideout. I think this is a bad spot facing CB Kamari Lassiter who has allowed 22 receptions on 267 coverages (8.2% TGT%) and last year he only allowed a 47.8% completion % allowing 33 receptions on 479 coverages. This 22 year old is a stud. Sutton has a great separation score when running out of wideout but it’s just a really tough spot here for me to back him. Also the Texans running Cover 3 30.2% Cover 4 27.3% as their top 2 coverages and Sutton holds a 17.5% TGT% while averaging 1.73 YPRR.

Suggested Pick
Courtland Sutton ‘U’ 62.5 Rec Yds -149

WR Troy Franklin 
Franklin is coming off a very impressive week racking up 6 receptions on 8 targets for 89 yards. In the season he has ran out of Slot 54.5% which is the HIGHEST on the team and last week when Mims went down Franklin ran out of the slot 75% of the time! He is questionable so if Mims is not able to go or if limited Franklin will be in that slot more often which is solid because that is the the Texans only flaw allowing 1.75 YPRR #17/32 70.7 Rec Yds #19/32 and 46 receptions #11/32. It’s such a tough spot here because the unknown status of Mims. Now the Texans running Cover 3 30.2% Cover 4 27.3% as their top 2 coverages that is good news as he has the HIGHEST TGT% on the team at 18.2% shine catching 17/26 targets (65.4%) while averaging 13.76 YPR which is the highest on the team as well. He also had a team high 6 design play! With Sutton being locked down on the outside it could open more opportunities for Franklin out of the slot 

Suggested Pick 
Pass if Mims out take over yards 

TE Evan Engram
Engram has not been producing yards in great matchups but his volume is there having 4+ targets and 4+ receptions in 5 straight games. Engram his last 3 games has ran out of the slot 37.1% of the time which is down 6.1% from his season 43.2%. Last game against the Cowboys he ran out of the slot a season low 31.3% and 62.5% out of the inline. That is brutal news for him because this Texans team is VERY good against inline receivers allowing 0.91 YPRR ranking #2/32 and allowing a crazy 10.4 receiving yards ranking #4/32 and allowing just 11 receptions ranking #5/32. Nix low completion% against this stout Texans defense makes me EXTREMELY concerned for this 4+ receptions streak to continue. Also the Broncos are trusting Pat Bryant more and more every week which is limiting chances out of the slot for Engram to produce. I see him running 30/35% out of the slot this week again. Engram against Cover 3 & 4 holds 17.4% TGT% which is 3rd on team while averaging 1.97 YPRR. Out of the slot he has been less productive having 4 receptions on 30 routes ran which is where he would have to exploit this defense. Engram is solid against these coverages when in the inline but the Texans allow the 6th LOWEST YPRR against inline receivers when specifically in Cover 3 & 4. Bad spot for him to excel 

Suggested Pick
‘U’

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