QB Drake Maye

During the regular season, Maye averaged 258.5 passing yards per game, 8.93 YPA and a 72% completion rate. He threw 31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. In his first playoff game, he completed 17 of 29 pass attempts for 268 passing yards and a touchdown. He also rushed 10 times for 66 yards. His 2nd playoff game was a much tougher matchup against the Texans, he completed 16 of 27 attempts for 179 yards and 3 touchdowns. He rushed just 4 times for 10 yards. Now he’ll face a Broncos defense that ranks 7th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th fewest passing yards per game in the regular season. The Broncos blitz at a top 5 rate (32.1%) and generate pressure at a top 2 rate (43.1%). Maye has been elite against the blitz, averaging 9.22 YPA, a 69.4% completion rate and a 129.1 QB rating. Against pressure, Maye averages 8.65 YPA, a 56.4% completion rate and a 95.7 QB rating. The Broncos run man coverage at a top 4 rate (36.1%). Maye has sizable positive splits against man coverage, averaging 9.98 YPA, a 66.9% completion rate and a 133.9 QB rating. From a rushing matchup perspective, the Broncos have allowed the most rushing yards per game to QB. They just allowed Josh Allen to rush 12 times for 66 yards. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Maye use his legs more here.

Suggested Pick:

Over 257.5 Pass + Rushing Yards (-115)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson/Treveyon Henderson

In the first playoff game against the Chargers, Stevenson had a 62% snap rate compared to Henderson’s 41%. Stevenson had 10 carries for 53 yards, while Henderson had 9 carries for 27 rushing yards. In the receiving game, Stevenson had a 57.5% route participation rate to Henderson’s 17.5%. In the 2nd playoff game, Rhamondre had a 62% snap rate to Henderson’s 38%. Stevenson was once again more effective, rushing 16 times for 70 yards, compared to Treveyon’s 12 attempts for just 25 yards. Rhamondre also caught 4 of 4 targets for 11 receiving yards. Expect the 60-40 split to continue moving forward and for Rhamondre to dominate receiving work. They’ll face a Broncos defense that ranks 7th best in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 2nd fewest rushing yards per game (91.1). The Broncos are especially good at defending zone concept runs. They force the 4th fewest YPC (3.72) and the 7th lowest success rate (45.9%). The Broncos allow the 14th fewest YPC (4.16) and the 16th lowest success rate (50%) against man/gap. Treveyon has been the more efficient RB in zone concept over the course of the season, averaging 5.37 YPC to Stevenson’s 4.19. Stevenson has been better in man/gap, averaging 4.94 YPC compared to Henderson’s 4.61. From a receiving matchup perspective, the Broncos have allowed the fewest receiving yards and fewest receptions to RBs. I’ll fade Henderson.

Suggested Pick:

Treveyon Henderson Under 44.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Stefon Diggs

During the regular season, Diggs averaged 59.6 receiving yards per game, 2.53 YPRR and was targeted on 25% of his routes. He led the team in 1st-read rate at 22.1%. In the Wild Card game against the Chargers, Diggs caught just 2 of 5 targets for 16 receiving yards. In the Divisional round against the Texans, Diggs caught 4 of 6 targets for 40 yards and a touchdown. Now he’ll face a Broncos defense that ranks 7th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th fewest receiving yards per game in the regular season. Diggs has lined up in the slot on 53.6% of his routes and out wide on 46.2%. The Broncos allow the 7th fewest YPRR to the slot (1.64) and the 2nd fewest to wide alignment (1.60). The Broncos blitz at a top 5 rate (32.1%) and generate pressure at a top 2 rate (43.1%). When Maye is pressured, Diggs averages 1.35 YPRR and has been targeted on 13% of his routes. When Maye is blitzed, Diggs averages 2.16 YPRR and 28% TPRR. The Broncos run man coverage at a top 4 rate (36.1%). Against man coverage, Diggs averages 2.38 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. 

Suggested Pick:

Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

WR Kayshon Boutte

During the regular season, Boutte averaged 39.4 receiving yards per game, 1.56 YPRR and was targeted on 13% of his routes. He has had 2 solid games in the playoffs, catching 4 of 4 targets for 66 yards against the Chargers and catching 3 of 5 targets for 75 yards and a touchdown against the Texans. Now he’ll face a Broncos defense that ranks 7th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th fewest receiving yards per game in the regular season. Boutte primarily lines up out wide, at an 89.8% rate. The Broncos allow the 2nd fewest YPRR to wide alignment (1.60). The Broncos blitz at a top 5 rate (32.1%) and generate pressure at a top 2 rate (43.1%). When Maye is pressured, Boutte averages just 0.53 YPRR and has been targeted on just 4% of his routes. When Maye is blitzed, Boutte averages 1.52 YPRR and 13% TPRR. The Broncos run man coverage at a top 4 rate (36.1%). Against man coverage, Boutte averages 1.39 YPRR and has been targeted on 11% of his routes. As the primary perimeter receiver, Boutte will likely line up against Surtain a decent amount, I don’t expect Boutte to continue his playoff success in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Under 38.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

TE Hunter Henry

During the regular season, Henry averaged 45.2 receiving yards per game, 1.73 YPRR, 19% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 18.5%. In the Wild Card round against the Chargers, Henry caught 3 of 5 targets for 64 yards and a touchdown. In the Divisional round against the Texans, Henry caught just 1 of 2 targets for 5 yards. Now he’ll face a Broncos defense that ranks 7th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th fewest receiving yards per game in the regular season. Henry has lined up from the slot on 47% of his routes and inline on 34.2%. The Broncos allow the 7th fewest YPRR to the slot (1.64) and the 5th fewest to inline (1.47). The Broncos blitz at a top 5 rate (32.1%) and generate pressure at a top 2 rate (43.1%). When Maye is pressured, Henry averages 1.21 YPRR and 13% TPRR. When Maye is blitzed, he averages 1.96 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. The Broncos run man coverage at a top 4 rate (36.1%). Against man coverage, Henry averages 1.09 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes.

Suggested Pick:
Anytime Touchdown (+201)

QB Jarrett Stidham

Oh boy. As a Broncos fan, I'm crushed for Bo Nix and nervous about Jarrett Stidham starting. However, the word around the organization has been positive in their belief in Stidham, so I guess I should, too. We don't have a lot of stats to go off of, considering Stidham hasn't thrown a ball this season. However, he tore it up in the preseason, completing 30/38 passes for a 78.9% completion percentage and a 143 QBR – not bad, but again, it's just preseason. He threw for 376 passing yards and had two passing TDs in each of his preseason appearances, and did not turn the ball over. So, I'm optimistic, but can't say I'm confident. The New England Patriots aren't an easy defence, either, allowing the 15th fewest completions (20.5), the 12th fewest pass attempts (30.9), the 9th fewest passing yards (206.4) and the 12th fewest rushing yards (16.2) per game to opposing QBs. Stidham will be tested against a man-heavy team, which runs Cover 1 at the 5th highest rate. As you could probably suspect, there aren't enough stats for us to encourage backing anything Stidham in this matchup – not until we see him do it.

Suggested pick:

Pass

RB RJ Havey

RJ Harvey draws a difficult matchup against a New England rush defence that allows the 4th fewest rush attempts (19.7) and 5th fewest rushing yards (77.1) per game. Schematically, New England leans heavily into zone concepts (49.6%), which they are notably stingy in, allowing just 3.81 yards per carry when in the coverage. Harvey doesn't see much of an advantage against either type of rush coverage, averaging 3.86 yards per carry against zone and 3.9 against man/gap. However, where the Patriots can be beaten by opposing backs is volume through the air, allowing the 6th most receptions (4.9) and is middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed (30.8) per game. And with Harvey already struggling on the ground, that's how the Broncos are going to need to get him involved to make him become a difference-maker – not to mention, he'll be a significant safety value for Stidham.

Suggested Pick:

RJ Harvey o3.5 Receptions (+110)

WR Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton faces a Patriots defence that has been great at limiting opposing WRs volume and usage all season, allowing the 7th fewest receptions (9.9) and 6th fewest receiving yards (118.5) per game. That said, Sutton’s strengths align well with New England’s man-heavy tendencies. Against man coverage, he has posted 16 receptions on 26 targets for 276 yards and leads his team with a 26.3% target share. He’s been even more central against Cover 1, catching 14 of 21 targets for 241 yards with a team-high 29.6% target share. Sutton is more efficient against man, with a higher catch rate (62.5%), yards per reception (17.1), and yards per route run (2.53). Sutton lines up outwide on 81.8% of his snaps. Against perimeter receivers, the Patriots are targeted at a middle-of-the-pack rate, the 7th-lowest catch rate (60%), and the 12th-highest yards per reception (13.37). The matchup lines up for a successful Sutton game, but do we trust it with Stidham and likely lining up against Christian Gonzalez for most of his snaps? I'm not sure that's the best target.

Suggested pick:

Pass

WR Pat Bryant

It's a shame that Bryant got hurt last game because he was cooking to start the game, registering three receptions for 32 receiving yards before exiting in the first quarter. But he's all cleared and primed for this game against the man-heavy Patriots. Against man coverage, Bryant has just four receptions on five targets for 39 yards with a minisucle 5.4% target share. Against Cover 1, he’s caught two of three targets for 28 yards and an even lower 4.5% share. However, the rookies usage has ramped up over the final few games of the season, which play into the small season numbers. Bryant has a higher catch rate (80%) against man coverage, but a lower yards per reception (9.8) and yards per route run (0.87) in his splits against zone. Primarily lining up as a slot receiver, the Patriots are targeted at the 10th lowest rate, allowing the 14th highest catch rate (71.6%), but the 5th lowest yards per reception (9.55). Alignment-wise, Bryant's coverage edge would favour him having more success with volume than yardage. And with Stidham starting, he could target the short-area slot receiver more often for quick reliability.

Suggested pick:

Pat Bryant o3.5 Receptions (+120)

TE Evan Engram

Finally we find a weakness in this Patriots defence. New England allow the 11th most receptions (5.7) and receiving yards (57.1) to opposing TEs. Against man coverage, Engram hasn't been a factor, catching just four of seven targets for 47 yards on a 7.1% target share. Against Cover 1, Engram has posted just three catches on six targets for 27 yards with an 8.5% target share. His efficiency dips against man in terms of catch rate (66.7%) and yards per route run (0.78), though his yards per reception are higher (11.8). Engram aligns inline on 42.6% of his routes, and he’ll face a Patriots defence that is targeted at the 12th lowest target rate to that alignment, but allow the 2nd highest catch rate (89.7%) while suppressing yardage with the 6th lowest yards per reception (8.31). I hate to continue suggesting receptions, but it's just another good matchup for Engram to clear his receptions line.

Suggested pick:

Evan Engram o2.5 Receptions (-110)

The Broncos will be playing their backup against a TOUGH Patriots team. This puts a lot of pressure on that Broncos defense because they know they have to show up. I think Patriots win but I like the under in this spot

Best Bet: Under 43.5 -120
Lean Patriots -2.5 -140
Score Prediction Patriots 20 Broncos 17

Anytime Touchdown: 

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +201

Has scored a touchdown in 7 of 19 games this season and leads the team in red zone targets with 21. The next closest to Henry is Diggs with 13. The Broncos allow the 11th most receiving touchdowns to TE but the 2nd fewest to WR. Like this spot for Henry to find the endzone.

Best Pick: (Broncos): Pat Bryant TD (+425)

We are encouraged by how the Broncos used Bryant in the last game, and that should only increase with the QB change and backups typically relying more on those short area of the field targets, as Bryant is a slot receiver. Bryant has scored in just one game this season, having to go all the way back to Week 8 against the Dallas Cowboys. The Patriots don't allow many TDs per game, but they average 1 TD per game against opposing WRs.

1st Touchdown:

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +900

Same analysis as anytime. He’s scored 4 of his touchdowns in the first half this season compared to 4 in the 2nd half.

Parlay #1 (Patriots) +592

Drake Maye Over 259.5 Pass + Rushing Yards
Stefon Diggs 50+ Receiving Yards
Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown

Parlay 1: (Broncos) +480 odds on bet365

RJ Harvey 3+ Receptions

RJ Harvey 30+ Receiving Yards

Pat Bryant 3+ Receptions

Pat Bryant 30+ Receiving Yards

QB Matthew Stafford

The Rams went with a surprise pass-heavy approach out of 11 personnel (89.6% snap rate) against the Bears in a surprise move last Sunday. It was their second-highest rate of 11 personnel this season, and the highest rate since back in Week 5. Head Coach Sean McVay tried a plethora of offensive looks, but the results weren't there, however the cold and blistery conditions had a lot to do with that. Still, the Rams ran just 7 plays out of the heavy 13 personnel, which has been their bread and butter all season. We are now left wondering how much of that we will see in the NFC Conference championship. The Rams used 13 personnel on 36% of their snaps in Week 11 and 61% in Week 16. In their first matchup, L.A. yielded 2.7 YPP on those 13 personnel snaps, however in the rematch they averaged 5.9 YPP. Seattle employed nickel defense at a rate of 67% and 79% vs this offensive scheme. Compared to what we saw in the regular season, both playoff games have looked different for Matthew Stafford. This is because we've seen him use little to no play-action. Despite a league-high play-action rate of 36.7%, Stafford posted his 2nd and 3rd lowest rates all year in the last two weeks at Carolina (16.7%) and Chicago (19.0%). In two regular season games against Seattle this season, he had play-action rates of 42.9% and 30.6%, and 4 of his 5 passing touchdowns vs the Seahawks came on play-action passes. This could all be smoke and mirrors from Sean McVay, but we are coming into this game a little off the radar based on what we've seen from L.A. in the playoffs. It was a tale of two games for Stafford against SEA this year. They held him to completion rates of 53.6% and 59.2%, but after holding him to a season-low 4.6 YPPA in Week 11, Stafford averaged 9.3 YPPA in the Week 16. Stafford went from a season-low 130 PY in the first matchup to a season-high 457 PY in the second. Furthermore, he had just two completions for 10 or more yards downfield in Week 11, but record 10 in Week 16. Regardless of how the Rams choose to approach Seattle's defense, they MUST find a way to get pressure on  Matthew Stafford!! In 79 dropbacks over two games, the Seahawks defense didn't record a single sack and hit him just 7 times. When he was pressured, Stafford was 3 of 11 (27.3%) for 19 yards in the first game and 9 of 21 (42.9%) for 137 yards in the second. Without any pressure, the veteran QB went 12 of 17 (70.6%) for 111 yards (2 TD) in Week 11, then was 20 of 28 (71.4%) for 320 yards (2 TD) in Week 16. Interestingly enough, Seattle used man coverage on 39.3% of its snaps in Week 11, but in Week 16 this bottomed out to just 17.6%. Stafford completed 10 of 20 passes (50%) for 54 yards in their first matchup, but he absolutely picked apart the Seahawks zone defense the second time around, going 24 of 38 (63.2%) for 435 yards. It should be noted that Nick Emmanwori, Coby Bryant and Riq Woolen all left that game early for Seattle, but on the other hand it wasn't like LAR wasn't having success prior to them leaving. I think the one thing we can bet safely on is that win or lose, Sean McVay is going to ultimately put this game on the arm of his star quarterback. In 9 career postseason games with the Los Angeles Rams, Matthew Stafford has posted 40 or more pass attempts 5 times, and in 7 of those games, he's thrown the ball at least 36 times. I like Stafford to hit the over 35.5 Pass Attempt mark again this Sunday for the Rams.

Suggested Bet:

Matthew Stafford o35.5 Pass Attempts (-117)

RB Kyren Williams

After performing to the level of a brick wall for the better part of the season, and coming off two back-to-back impressive performances against the 49ers, this is a great time to sell off on the Seattle rush defense. The Seahawks may lead the NFL in rush defense DVOA (-30.1%), but Los Angeles also leads the league in rush offense DVOA (+17.4%). When these two teams met in the regular season, Kyren Williams rushed for 70 and 91 yards respectively. Regardless of who the Rams RB has faced, he's only been held to under 54.5 rushing yards twice all year!! Moreover, when Kyren has gone up against top-10 rush defense DVOA units, he's averaged 75.8 rush YPG. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have had issues against other quality rushing units. Outside of its two games vs L.A., Seattle has faced only one opponent with a top-5 DVOA rushing attack. That was at home against Indianapolis, where the Seahawks allowed 87 yards to Jonathan Taylor. Their primary concern is going to be limiting QB Matthew Stafford, and Kyren will be able to clear this line in the NFC Championship.

Suggested Bet:

Kyren Williams o54.5 Rush Yards (-109)

WR Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua is the focal point of the Rams offense. He leads the team with a 29.3% targets share this season, while catching 144 balls on 194 targets this year. In addition, he's recorded 8 or more receptions in 9 games this season, and had 4 catches vs opponents on four separate occasions. He caught 7 passes in Week 11 vs Seattle, and recorded his best game of the season in Week 16 against the Seahawks, where he recorded 12 receptions for 225 yards and 2 TDs. Now, the absence of WR Davante Adams helped his cause here, but he still posted a 29.6% target share in their first matchup with Adams on the field. Davante came into the postseason off a hamstring injury, and has caught only 7 passes on 19 targets, while Puka has extended his target share in the playoffs to an absurd 34.1% rate. But here's where the plot thickens. Seattle plays primarily Cover 3 and Cover 6 defense, and against those coverages, Nacua leads the Rams with a 33.9% target share, while Davante Adams drops off significantly to just 15.2%. This also comes with him running 78% of the routes on these dropbacks, with Nacua running 77.4% of routes. Considering this is the third time the two teams will face each other, and the fact that it's for the right to go to the Super Bowl, I fully expect Stafford to lean on his most trusted WR. Look for Puka Nacua to see a boatload of targets this Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Puka Nacua o7.5 Receptions (-118)

WR Davante Adams

Davante Adams is still a strong red zone and end zone target threat, but since returning from a hamstring injury the veteran WR has not looked the same. At this point in his career, and within the L.A. offense, Adams isn't called upon to be a high-volume receiver. Don't get me wrong, Davante still has great hands and is an excellent route runner, but under Sean McVay he is a quality over quantity type of player. This is clearly proved by his 14 touchdown total on just 60 receptions this season, whereas Puka Nacua recorded 10 scores on 129 catches. Adams is a classic case of a high-floor, low-ceiling wide receiver. He's went under 4.5 receptions in 9 of 15 games this season, and against Cover 3 and Cover 6 defensive schemes, he has a target rate of just 15.2%. In his one matchup this year vs Seattle, Adams was targeted 8 times, where he caught just one ball, which was appropriately a 1-yard touchdown reception.

Suggested Bet:

Davante Adams u4.5 Receptions (-164)

TE Colby Parkinson

It's no secret that Seattle's Achilles' heel on defense has been the tight end position. During the regular season, the Seahawks allowed the 6th most receiving yards to opposing TEs. Oddly enough, two of Parkinson's least productive games came against SEA, where he had 2 catches for 14 yards in Week 11 and 2 catches for 21 yards in Week 16. Still, the LAR tight end has recorded 25+ receiving yards in 8 of his last 9 games, including 4 straight entering Sunday's NFC Championship game. During this stretch, Parkinson has averaged 5.4 targets, turning it into 3.7 receptions and 41.7 YPG.

Suggested Bet:

Colby Parkinson 25+ Rec Yards (-123)

QB Sam Darnold
Darnold didn’t have to do much last week and when he doesn’t need to push the envelope, he won’t. He only threw the ball 17 times with 12 completions for 124 yards, a passing touchdown and no interceptions. They routed the 49ers 41-6 and after a quick early lead they were able to go on cruise control offensively. This week, we should get a much more competitive game, as was the case in the first two meetings this season. In week 10, the Rams beat the Seahawks 21-19, but Seattle took game two in week 15 in an overtime thriller (38-37). Darnold really struggled in their first meeting, throwing four interceptions and no passing touchdowns. In the overtime win he was better, but still threw a pair of interceptions. Even going back the season prior, Darnold has had his struggles against Dan Shula’s defense. Over his last 4 against the Rams, Darnold has thrown 7 interceptions and taken 16 sacks. As good as the Seattle defense is, Darnold is still going to need to be at his best in this matchup. The injured oblique he played through this week didn’t seem to affect him too much, but it’s still worth monitoring in this game. The key to Darnold’s success this season is off of play action. His yards per attempt jumps from 7.4 to 11.3 when using play action. Even his touchdown rate jumps significantly (3.5% to 10.1%). This Rams defense has been leaky in the playoffs, but still does a good job at generating pressure (2nd highest rate in the league). If they can get to Darnold, it should really make his life difficult. Without one of their key running backs, Darnold’s ability to dig his own holes and a likely competitive game I think we look to overs here. It probably won’t look pretty, but a cash is a cash!

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 29.5 Passing Attempts (-120)
‘O’ 228.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Kenneth Walker III
Unfortunately for this rushing attack, Zach Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL last week. That’ll likely mean most of the workload will fall onto Walker’s shoulders. He made good on that after Charbonnet exited last week when Seattle could run the ball to a win. He finished the game with 19 carries for 116 yards and three touchdowns. He also added 3 catches for 29 yards. There are two things Walker does really well from a statistical standpoint. He is an explosive runner and he’s great at forcing missed tackles. This creates an interesting matchup for Walker. The L.A. Rams do a good job at limiting explosive rushes. One the season, they hold the 6th lowest explosive run rate (3.2%). However, they do fall victim to missed tackles. Walker ranks 2nd among running backs in forced missed tackles and the Rams rank 9th highest in missed tackle rate. Walker was productive in the overtime win against LAR in week 15 with 11 carries for 100 yards and a touchdown. He also added 3 catches for 64 yards. Even in the first meeting he ran 16 times for 67 yards and a touchdown with 3 catches for 44 yards. There is no doubt he’ll likely get 80% to 90% of the work here. The lines reflect that. Ultimately, I think that Shula is going to look to bottle up the run and force Darnold to beat him. I like Walker as a receiver in this game, but if I had to choose, I’d fade him as a rusher. 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-150)
‘U’ 85.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
We bet Jaxon Smith-Njigba last week and he let us down, which was likely thanks to a game that got out of hand quickly. Luckily, he cooked in both regular season matchups vs the Rams. In week 10, he reeled in 9 of 12 targets for 105 yards. In week 15, he registered 8 catches on 13 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown. There is easily a path to 10+ targets again here, in what should be a competitive game. JSN has done really well against zone this season and the Rams run plenty of it. JSN ranks 2nd in yards per route run against zone coverage this season and the Rams run a ton of zone (7th highest rate in the NFL). JSN’s numbers this season are absolutely bonkers. He led the league in target rate (32.6%) and receiving yards (1,793). He accounted for just under 50% of the team's total air yards and 44.1% of the team’s yardage. There is no reason that Seattle would work away from him here in what should be a really tight game. I’m sure both opposing defenses will look to slow down Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but very few teams have been able to do it.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (-110)
‘O’ 89.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Rashid Shaheed
You all got a chance to witness a classic Shaheed game last week as a member of the Seahawks. He kicked off the game with a 95-yard kick return touchdown. He even added a pair of carries for 27 yards. As a receiver? Absolutely nothing - zero catches on two targets. You just can’t trust him as a receiver to this point. He has now gone four consecutive games with fewer than 2 catches and no more than 2 targets. In two games this season against the Rams, Shaheed has accumulated 2 catches on 6 targets for 27 yards, while adding 2 carries for 33 yards. That even included an overtime game! At this point, his lines have cratered to reflect his lack of production. It’s heavy juice, but it’s hard not to like under 2.5 receptions. He hasn’t even cleared that in terms of target over his last 4 games. Now, Seattle has also played in a lot of uncompetitive games and this one should be more competitive. However, I still like laying the juice on receptions or as a parlay piece.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 2.5 Receptions (-185)

TE A.J. Barner
Barner was quiet in  the romping last week. He didn’t even receive a target! He’s been a reliable option for Darnold all season though, and with good pressure by the Rams, he should be a good outlet option. In week 15 he had 4 catches on 6 targets for 49 yards and a touchdown. In week 10, he had 10 catches on 11 targets for 70 yards. Barner plays primarily inline (82.9%), but interestingly enough, the Rams have been pretty good against inline receivers. They are allowing the 29th most targets per route run (0.23) to the alignment, 16th most receiving yards per game (28.5) and 26th highest yards per reception (8.49). However, they are allowing the 10th highest catch rate (81.4%). There are just too many other weapons to worry about for the Rams to get caught up focusing on Barner. With good pressure and Darnold’s struggles against this defense, I think he’ll look to Barner and Walker as outlet options to avoid turnovers.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (+145)

This Rams running defense has been REALLY bad and I feel much more confident by going with Seattle at Home. It will be one hell of a game

Best Bet: Seahawks ML -148
Lean Over 45.5 -112
Score Prediction Rams 20 Seahawks 27

Anytime Touchdown: 

Longshot (Seahawks): A.J. Barner +210
I’ve seen enough in the first two matchups to believe that Barner will be involved. He’s already scored against this team once this season and has total 14 catches for 119 yards in the two matchups. If we look back to the previous year, he scored once too. We have also seen him used as the tush push option. They even tried it against the Rams in the regular season! Without their goal line back, Charbonnet, they could look to get a little more creative up close.

1st Touchdown 

Best Bet (Seahawks): Kenneth Walker +500
This one is simple: no Charbonnet. Charbonnet has vulture work from Walker all season. With him out of the picture, Walker should consume all of the red zone work. Last week we saw him score three times and he’s scored in each matchup against the Rams this season. Let’s not overthink this one!

Parlay #1 (Rams) +1000 DK

Matthew Stafford 34+ Pass Attempts

Kyren Williams 50+ Rush Yards

Puka Nacua 8+ Receptions

Davante Adams u4.5 Receptions

Colby Parkinson 25+ Rec Yards

Parlay #2 (Seahawks) +660

Sam Darnold 250+ Passing Yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 7+ Receptions
A.J. Barner Touchdown