QB Jaxson Dart

Jaxson Dart returns after missing two games due to a concussion, and prior to the injury he had been remarkably consistent, accounting for multiple touchdowns in each of his first seven starts. His playstyle emphasizes controlled aggression — attacking intermediate windows while using mobility to extend plays when structure breaks. The Patriots’ defensive profile presents a nuanced challenge. They lean heavily on Cover 3 (26.8%) and Cover 1 (24%), meaning over half their snaps are single-high structures that test timing, anticipation, and accuracy outside the numbers. Against these coverages, Dart has been efficient, averaging 8.26 YPA with a +4.0% CPOE, and has added a healthy rushing element with 120 yards and a score on scrambles. New England has allowed the 14th-fewest passing yards per game (226.8) and the 12th-fewest QB rushing yards (15.8), but prior to last week they had surrendered multiple touchdowns to quarterbacks in four straight outings. Dart’s ability to challenge Cover 1 with layered throws and punish Cover 3 with scrambling gives him enough pathways to a productive performance, even if New England compresses explosive opportunities. Expect a balanced stat line driven by intermediate accuracy and controlled movement within the pocket.

Suggested Play:
'O' 206.5 Passing Yards (-120)

RB Tyrone Tracy

Tyrone Tracy has taken command of the Giants’ backfield, posting 20 carries for 62 yards and 3 receptions for 68 yards last week while controlling 71% of snaps and 64% of routes. His dual-threat usage gives New York a dynamic element against a Patriots defense that has been elite against the run but far more vulnerable through the air. New England allows the fewest rushing yards per game to RBs (63.0) and the ninth-fewest adjusted yards before contact (1.74) — a clear sign that their front consistently wins early in reps. However, they also allow 34.2 receiving yards per game to running backs, opening a strategic lane for Tracy’s passing-game involvement. Given his recent workload — 19+ carries and 3+ receptions in back-to-back games — he projects as the central offensive piece for New York. While raw rushing efficiency is likely capped due to New England’s strength in the trenches, Tracy can still produce a healthy all-purpose line through checkdowns, angle routes, and misdirection-based touches that leverage his lateral quickness.

Suggested Play:
'O' 70.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

Wan’Dale Robinson enters this matchup after a breakout performance with 9 catches for 156 yards and a score. He has been the Giants’ most reliable separator in the short and intermediate areas, and his skill set aligns well with how New England structures coverage. The Patriots run Cover 1 and Cover 3 on 50.8% of snaps, and Wan’Dale has been highly efficient against those looks, averaging 2.13 yards per route and earning targets on 24% of his routes across 216 snaps in that environment. His agility and quickness allow him to stress linebackers and slot defenders, and his usage spikes whenever New York needs to mitigate pressure or create quick-hitting spacing concepts. New England’s secondary has been inconsistent covering shifty receivers, and although they held Tee Higgins to just 31 yards last week, their overall metrics show vulnerability: they allow the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter WRs (107.8) and struggle with layered route combinations that isolate match defenders. Robinson’s volume should remain stable as the Giants’ primary move receiver.

Suggested Play:
'O' 5.5 Receptions (-120)

TE Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson continues to develop as a reliable chain-mover, producing 3 catches for 77 yards last week while running a strong 77% route share. He has recorded 3+ receptions in eight of his last nine games, a reflection of his expanding role in the middle of the field. This matchup is particularly favorable: the Patriots allow the sixth-most receptions (6.3) and ninth-most receiving yards (63.3) per game to tight ends, and their Cover 1/Cover 3 mix frequently leaves them vulnerable to seams, crossers, and sit routes against athletic TEs. Johnson averages 1.50 yards per route and earns targets at a 16% rate against these coverage families, and his ability to win vertically or box out defenders underneath gives Dart a high-percentage outlet when pressured. The Patriots allowed 9 catches and 82 yards to Cade Otton in this matchup earlier in the season, showing their susceptibility to tight ends who can work into soft pockets behind linebackers. Johnson has a realistic path to another efficient, steady performance.

Suggested Play:
'O' 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

QB Drake Maye

Drake Maye averages 260.8 passing yards per game, 8.82 YPA, has a 71% completion rate and a 110.7 QB rating. He’s thrown 21 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. He’ll face a Giants defense that ranks 12^th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 10^th most passing yards per game (227.8). The Giants fired their defensive coordinator, Shane Bowen, after last week’s game, so we’ll see if we see any changes to their scheme/tendencies. The Patriots lost their starting left tackle, Will Campbell, last game, as well as their left guard Jared Wilson. The Giants have the 12^th lowest pressure rate on the season (35.6%) and the 11^th lowest sack rate (5.5%). The line play will be key as the one blemish to Maye’s breakout season has been his 9.4% sack rate, ranking 28^th amongst QBs. With Shane Bowen, the Giants ran the 2^nd highest frequency of man coverage (39.8%) and the 5^th highest rate of single-high (59.8%). Against man coverage, Maye averages 9.91 YPA, a 64.9% completion rate and a 125 QB rating. Against single-high, Maye averages 9.73 YPA, a 70.6% completion rate, and a 109.4 QB rating. The Patriots are 7.5-point home favorites with a 46.5 implied total; they may turn to the run if this game becomes a blowout.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

RB Treveyon Henderson

In the first week back with Rhamondre and Jennings healthy, Henderson played 64.2% of the snaps. That compared to 90.3%, 83.1% and 75% in the previous 3 weeks. He carried the ball 18 times for 66 rushing yards and caught 3 receptions for 15 receiving yards against the Bengals. During the 3-week breakout as the bellcow, he averaged 88 rushing yards per game, 5.62 YPC and 4 rushing TDs. I’d expect him to be closer to 60% snap share moving forward. He’ll face a Giants defense allowing the 2^nd most rushing yards per game to RB and ranks dead last in EPA/Rush allowed. The also allow the highest explosive run rate (9.4%). The Patriots will be without their starting left tackle and left guard, which could cause issues for this running game. Treveyon has been more efficient in zone concept runs, but it only accounts for 33.1% of his attempts. He’s averaging 5.13 YPC and a 59% success rate on these concepts. That compares to 4.14 YPC and a 43.2% success rate in man concept. The Giants are dead last in YPC (7.3) and success rate allowed (60.3%) against man concept. That compares to 4^th worst in YPC (4.84) and 10^th worst in success rate allowed (50.4%) against zone. In terms of the receiving game, Treveyon led the Patriots RBs with a 51.3% route rate last week after ranging between 67.5% to 72.2% in the prior 3 weeks with the injuries. He caught 3 receptions for 15 receiving yards. The Giants allow the 13^th most receiving yards to RB.

Suggested Pick:

Over 13.5 Yard Longest Rush (-125)

Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

WR Stefon Diggs

Diggs is averaging 56.6 receiving yards per game, 2.37 YPC and 26% TPRR. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 22.7%. Diggs has run 50.2% of his routes out wide and 49.5% from the slot. He’ll face a Giants defense that ranks 12^th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 10^th most receiving yards per game (227.8). They specifically allow the 12^th most receiving yards to wide alignment and the 7^th most to the slot. The Giants fired their defensive coordinator, Shane Bowen, after last week’s game, so we’ll see if we see any changes to their scheme/tendencies. The Patriots lost their starting left tackle, Will Campbell, last game, as well as their left guard Jared Wilson. The Giants have the 12^th lowest pressure rate on the season (35.6%) and the 11^th lowest sack rate (5.5%). When Maye is pressured, Diggs averages 1.16 YPRR and 14% TPRR. When not pressured, Diggs averages 3.48 YPRR and 37% TPRR. With Shane Bowen, the Giants ran the 2^nd highest frequency of man coverage (39.8%) and the 5^th highest rate of single-high (59.8%). Against man, Diggs averages 2.68 YPRR and 29% TPRR. Against single-high, Diggs averages 2.62 YPRR and 24% TPRR. I like Diggs to have a big game!

Suggested Pick:

Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

WR Kayshon Boutte

This will be Boutte’s 2^nd week back after missing 2 weeks with a hamstring injury. Boutte is averaging 44.6 receiving yards per game, 1.81 YPRR and 13% TPRR. He’s used as a deep threat, with the highest average depth of target out of the starters at 17 yards. He lines up out wide at an 88.3% rate. He’ll face a Giants defense that ranks 12^th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 10^th most receiving yards per game (227.8). They specifically allow the 12^th most receiving yards to wide alignment. The Giants fired their defensive coordinator, Shane Bowen, after last week’s game, so we’ll see if we see any changes to their scheme/tendencies. The Patriots lost their starting left tackle, Will Campbell, last game, as well as their left guard Jared Wilson. The Giants have the 12^th lowest pressure rate on the season (35.6%) and the 11^th lowest sack rate (5.5%). When Maye is pressured, Boutte averages 0.82 YPRR and 5% TPRR. When not pressured, Boutte averages 2.71 YPRR and 20% TPRR. With Shane Bowen, the Giants ran the 2^nd highest frequency of man coverage (39.8%) and the 5^th highest rate of single-high (59.8%). Against man, Boutte averages 1.20 YPRR and 10% TPRR. Against single-high, Boutte averages 1.75 YPRR and 15% TPRR. I don’t prefer Boutte in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Under 2.5 Receptions (-166)

TE Hunter Henry

Henry is averaging 44.8 receiving yards per game, 1.68 YPRR, 19% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 19.3%. He mainly splits his time in the slot (42.3%) and inline (36.4%). He’ll face a Giants defense that ranks 12^th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 10^th most receiving yards per game (227.8). They specifically allow the 7^th most receiving yards to the slot and the 6^th fewest to inline. The Giants fired their defensive coordinator, Shane Bowen, after last week’s game, so we’ll see if we see any changes to their scheme/tendencies. The Patriots lost their starting left tackle, Will Campbell, last game, as well as their left guard Jared Wilson. The Giants have the 12^th lowest pressure rate on the season (35.6%) and the 11^th lowest sack rate (5.5%). When Maye is pressured, Henry averages 0.90 YPRR and 11% TPRR. When not pressured, Henry averages 2.32 YPRR and 25% TPRR. With Shane Bowen, the Giants ran the 2^nd highest frequency of man coverage (39.8%) and the 5^th highest rate of single-high (59.8%). Against man, Henry averages 1.52 YPRR and 20% TPRR. Against single-high, Henry averages 1.88 YPRR and 20% TPRR. As one of Maye’s top redzone targets, I like Henry to find the endzone.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (+207)

This Patriots teams is tough to beat and should have no problems with this Giants squad getting back Jaxson Dart. Give me the Pats -6.5

Best Bet Patriots -6.5 -130
Lean Under 47.5 -115
Score Prediction Giants 20 Patriots 27

Anytime TD Scorer

Tyrone Tracy (Giants) +205

Tracy’s expanding usage makes him a strong scoring candidate. His passing-game involvement creates red-zone flexibility, and the Giants increasingly trust him on early-down and goal-to-go plays. With the Patriots allowing the first 60+ yard rusher of their season just last week, their run defense may be softening slightly, opening additional touchdown paths.

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +225

First TD Scorer

Theo Johnson (Giants) +1635

Johnson’s consistency, red-zone size, and usage in seam/fade concepts give him notable first-touchdown potential. New York often scripts early drives through quick-game concepts and TE involvement to settle the quarterback. With the Patriots vulnerable to tight ends and hesitant in hook/curl exchanges, Johnson has a clean path to the Giants’ opening score.

Treveyon Henderson (Patriots) +575

Parlay #1 (Giants) +225

WanDale Robinson 'O' 5.5 Receptions 

Tyrone Tracy 'O' 47.5 Rush Yards

Tyrone Tracy ATD

Parlay #2 (Patriots) +831

Stefon Diggs Over 47.5 Receiving Yards

Treveyon Henderson 60+ Rushing Yards

Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown

QB Caleb Williams

It's been ugly lately for Caleb Williams in terms of efficiency, having not completed 60% of his passes in a game since Week 8, which was the only time since Week 3. But hey, you aren't going to complain when he scores three through the air. This week, Williams will get a tough Eagles defence, who allow the 11th fewest pass completions (34.2), despite seeing the 10th most pass attempts (34.2). That has translated to them allowing the 14th most passing yards (235.5) but the fourth fewest passing TDs (1.0) per game. The Eagles rely heavily upon man coverage, running that at the 14th highest rate (29.6%), and the most Cover 6 (21.8%) in the entire NFL. Against man, Williams has a 57.1% completion percentage – below 60%? Shocker – yet continues to make his completions count, producing the 12th highest yards per attempt (7.27) and the 11th highest QBR (110.3). Against Cover 6, Williams has completed 71.1% of his passes, averaging the 6th highest yards per attempt (9.84) and an 89.1 QBR. Williams isn't shy to use his legs either, averaging 26.6 rushing yards per game. He should be able to use them again in this match, as the Eagles allow the 9th most rushing yards (22.1) per game. Williams has rushed for 20+ rushing yards in five straight games.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams 20+ Rushing Yards (-130)

RB D'Andre Swift / Kyle Monangai

It wasn't necessarily a field day for Swift on the ground. He had just 15 rushing yards on eight attempts. The limited volume is a result of his fumble. After he fumbled, we saw Kyle Monangai take over the backfield, outsnapping Swift 55.7% to 42.6%. Could this be the changing of the guard? The Eagles defence allows the 15th fewest rushing yards (87.9) per game. Philadelphia runs a near split in terms of man/gap (41.6%) and zone concept (39.2%). And that's reflected in their efficiency, allowing a 4.13 yards per carry against man/gap and 4.03 against zone. Swift has been efficient regardless of scheme, averaging 4.8 yards per carry against man/gap and 4.46 yards per carry against zone. Monangai has been even better, averaging a 5.36 yards per carry against man/gap and 4.11 yards per carry against zone. With all of that said, we want to see how the backfield splits work this week before we can confidently back either rusher.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

WR DJ Moore

Well, after two straight down weeks where it looked like Luther Burden was taking over, DJ Moore bounced back with a five-reception, 64-yard performance, finding the end zone twice. So, he's saved himself for a week in this game guide. Moore gets an Eagles defence that allows the 15th most receptions (11.6) and the 10th most receiving yards (158.8) to opposing WRs. Against their most used shells, Moore has seven receptions on 13 targets for 80 receiving yards, earning a 16.7% target share. Against Cover 6, Moore has caught seven of his nine targets for 111 receiving yards and a team-leading 23.7% target share. This is a zone look, which is probably why you see the increased numbers for Moore. He lines up outwide on 63.8% of his routes. The Eagles are targeted at that alignment at the 5th highest rate, allowing the 4th highest yards per reception (15.3), but hold their opponents to the 2nd lowest catch rate (56.5%). How much am I buying into Moore's resurgence last week? Meh. There were a couple blown coverages that left Moore wide open. So, I want to see it again before I deem Moore is back. And to be fair, it's not like it's a fantastic matchup for Moore either.

Suggested pick:

Pass

WR Rome Odunze

It was a nice volume day for Odunze, seeing nine balls thrown his way, however, he wasn't able to turn that into much, catching just three of those balls for 53 yards. The yardage is nice, but would like to see that a bit higher with that much volume. Against the Eagles' preferred coverages, Odunze has 14 receptions on 24 targets for 184 receiving yards against zone, leading the team with a massive 30.8% target share against man coverage. He also sees his catch rate and yards per route run both take meaningful jumps when compared that to his zone splits. Against Cover 6, the preferred zone coverage for the Eagles, Odunze has just four receptions on six targets for 57 receiving yards, with a 15.8% target share. Odunze lines up on the outwide on 60% of his snaps, however, he lined up in the slot on 44% last week. Against slot receivers, the Eagles are targeted at a middle-of-the-pack rate, but allow the lowest catch rate (58.5%) and the 5th lowest yards per reception (9.5). However, we're getting a nice little discount on Odunze's receptions after coming up short last week with just three. Odunze has logged 4+ receptions in five of 11 games this season, but three of those five games came against teams that run man at a top-10 rate.

Suggested pick:

Rome Odunze o3.5 Receptions (-125)

TE Colston Loveland

The Loveland breakout is happeninggggg. After catching four of his five targets for 49 receiving yards last week, he has now logged 40+ receiving yards in four straight weeks, averaging 65.5 receiving yards per game. Can the ascention continue? The Eagles defence won't be an easy cookie to crack, as they allow the 5th fewest receptions (3.9) and the 2nd fewest receiving yards (32.4) per game to opposing TEs. Loveland's usage is low against man coverage, producing just five receptions on seven targets for 39 receiving yards with a modest 7.5% target share. His numbers do spike against Cover 6 though, catching all four of his targets for 92 receiving yards with an improved 12.5% target share. Loveland lines up inline on 44.2% of his routes. Against inline receivers, Philadelphia is targeted at the 5th highest rate in the league, allowing around a league average catch rate (79.3%), but the 11th lowest yards per reception (9.0). We love to see the rookie doing well, but it might hit a quick speed bump this week in a tough matchup against the Eagles.

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland u31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts walks into a matchup against the Chicago Bears coming off the second-best week of his season. He went 27/39 for 289 passing yards and a passing TD, adding 33 yards and two TDs with his legs. He will look to carry that over against a Bears defence that allows the 13th most passing yards (235.8), the 3rd most passing TDs, despite facing the 13th fewest pass attempts (30.9). Chicago is a very man-heavy team, running the coverage at the 10th highest rate (29.6%) in the league. Oddly enough, they also run the 4th most Cover 2 (23.7%). Against man coverage, Hurts has the 9th highest completion percentage (61.4%), the 3rd highest yards per attempt (8.06), with a 95 QBR. Against Cover 2, He has completed 77.6% of his passes and has a 6.86 yards per attempt. Not only can Hurts beat you with his arm, but he's deadly with his legs as well. That doesn't project well for this Bears defence that allows the 5th most rushing yards (23.9) to QBs per game. Hurts has been able to get it done against man-heavy teams this season and has seemed to unlock AJ Brown as of late. He should be able to succeed with his arm and on the ground in this matchup against the Bears.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts o243.5 Pass & Rush Yards (-115)

RB Saquon Barkley

Quinnen Williams proved to be a massive addition to that Cowboys run game, because Barkley had his worst week of the season, rushing for just 22 yards on his 10 carries. The Eagles have really struggled running the ball this season, and Lane Johnson being out again this week won't help that. However, the Bears have proven to be an easy matchup, as they allow the 7th most rushing yards (108.2) per game to opposing RBs. They play zone concepts on nearly half their snaps (49.5%) and man/gap on 36.5%. They allow 4.63 yards per carry against zone, and a 4.86 yards per carry against man/gap. That lines up nicely for Barkley's splits. He averages 3.23 yards per carry against zone, but that jumps up to 4.29 against man/gap. And although Barkley wasn't able to get it done on the ground last week, he caught seven of his eight targets and turned that into 52 receiving yards. But that doesn't really help Barkley in this matchup either, as the Bears allow the 14th fewest receptions (4.3) and receiving yards (29.8) to opposing backs. With all of that said, on paper, it's a good matchup for Barkley. And while he might have success on the ground, we don't know if that means the volume will follow.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley u18.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

WR AJ Brown

This is the AJ Brown we've been waiting to see all season. He has now put back-to-back double-digit target weeks, catching eight of his 12 targets for 110 receiving yards and a TD last week. He will face off against the man-heavy Bears, who allow the 14th most receiving yards (147.5), despite allowing the 10th-fewest receptions (10.4) per game, a sign that they allow big chunk plays, but are able to limit volume. Against man coverage, Brown has 17 receptions on 28 targets for 258 receiving yards, but earns a massive 35.9% target share, which has led to a 16.6 yards per reception and an elite 3.51 yards per route run – both significantly higher than his zone production. Against Cover 2 – a zone look that the Bears run often – Brown has just two catches for 20 receiving yards on four targets, good for a 7.3% target share. Brown lines up on the perimeter on 90.8% of his snaps. The Bears are targeted at the 7th lowest rate, a 62.3% target share and the 13th highest yards per reception (13.64). We have a rule with these Eagles WRs. When it's zone coverage, we target Smith. But when it's man coverage, we target Brown. And with his uptick in volume lately, this lines up to be another Brown week for this Eagles offence.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown o59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

AJ Brown 80+ Receiving Yards (+215)

WR Devonta Smith

Devonta Smith got it done for us last week, catching six of his 10 targets for 89 receiving yards. However, as our rule above, the man-heavy Bears might not be the best matchup for Smith. Against man coverage, Smith has turned 22 targets into 13 receptions for 156 receiving yards on 95 routes with a 25% target share. While that target share is still elite, that isn't reflected in production, as he sees a lower catch rate, yards per reception and yards per route run compared to his numbers against zone coverage. Against Cover 2 – a zone look – Smith has thrived, recording 15 receptions on 18 targets for 209 receiving yards on 64 routes, commanding a team-high 31% target share. Smith is used in the slot on 56.8% of his routes. Against slot receivers, the Bears are targeted at the 12th lowest rate, allow the 11th highest catch rate (72.5%) and the 3rd highest yards per reception (12.62). So, yes, it shouldn't be a Smith week with the Bears running the fifth-most man coverage. However, the fact that they run Cover 2 at a high rate, as well as leaking production to slot alignments, makes this a unique week where both could have some success. Smith has a 23+ yard reception in four of the last five weeks.

Suggested pick:

Devonta Smith o22.5 Longest Reception (-110)

TE Dallas Goedert

It was a bit of a down week for Dallas Goedert, but when both Brown and Smith have good weeks, somebody has to suffer, and that was Goedert. He still caught everything thrown his way, turning his two receptions into 20 receiving yards. It was just a low-volume day with just two targets. The Bears do a good job of limiting opposing TEs, allowing the 10th fewest receptions (4.9), and are middle of the pack in terms of yardage allowed (50.7) to the position. Against man coverage, Goedert has caught nine of 13 targets for 61 yards on 72 routes, earning a 16.7% target share. He becomes a more central piece of the passing attack against Cover 2, where he has nine receptions on only 11 targets for 104 yards across 53 routes, pushing his target share up to 20%. Goedert does his best work against zone coverage, where he sees his catch rate, yards per reception and yards per route run increase. Goedert lines up all over the field, but run 38.6% of his routes from inline. Against inline receivers, the Bears are targeted at the 13th highest rate, allowing the 4th highest catch rate (88.9%) but the 6th lowest yards per reception (8.05). So, it's not a great matchup for Goedert coverage-wise. His alignment might help him, but if we're projecting another decent week for the WRs, then somebody has to suffer because of it. Goedert has failed to log four receptions in four of the last five games.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert u3.5 Receptions (-105)

The Eagles are seven-point favourites coming into this matchup, which seems a bit high considering the Bears are on a four-game win streak, and have won eight of their last nine and are leading the NFC North – just as everybody thought they would be coming into the season. However, if you look further into those games, you'll find that they were all close matches, and the Bears narrowly walked away with the win, despite the poor level of competition: Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints, Washington Commanders, and Las Vegas Raiders. When they played good teams, like the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions, they have lost by a combined 45 points. The Eagles would be in the same upper echelon as the Lions and Ravens, so why should we expect a different result?

Best Bet: Eagles -6.5 -125
Lean: Over 33.5 -120
Score Prediction: Bears 14 Eagles 31

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Bears): Kyle Monangai TD (+240)

Regardless of how this backfield shakes out, Monangai should handle the bulk of the carries from inside the five. Since Swift returned in Week 10, the Bears RBs have combined for three rushing TDs: Swift 0, Monangai 3. What's even more puzzling about those numbers is that they've split the inside-the-five carries 50/50. The Bears should see this and notice that Monangai has more success and give him more of the touches.

Best Pick: (Eagles): AJ Brown TD (+115)

AJ Brown scored last week, but he hasn't been able to score in two straight games all season. No better time for that to happen than this Bears defence, who allow the 3rd most receiving TDs (1.3) to opposing WRs.

First TD

Best Pick: (Bears) Kyle Monangai First TD (+1400)

If we're taking him to score, why can't it be the first? Monangai has four TDs on the season, including one in three straight games. Two of those TDs were the first of the game. This Eagles defence doesn't allow too many TDs to any position; however, they do average over 1.0 TD to RBs per game. So there's an edge for Monangai to potentially find the first score of the game.

Best Pick: (Eagles) AJ Brown First TD (+600)

If we're pegging Brown to have yet another big week, he might get it done early for us. Brown has scored four TDs this season, in three games. Oddly enough, two of those three games, Brown's score was the first of the game.

Parlay 1: (Bears) +220 odds on bet365

Caleb Williams 20+ Rushing Yards

Rome Odunze 4+ Receptions

Parlay 2: (Eagles) +360 odds on bet365

AJ Brown TD

AJ Brown 80+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 3: (Bears/Eagles Longshot) +2300 odds on bet365

Caleb Williams 30+ Rushing Yards

Rome Odunze 5+ Receptions

AJ Brown 80+ Receiving Yards

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love enters Thanksgiving in a slump, failing to reach 176 passing yards in three straight games and posting zero touchdown passes in three of his last four, but the matchup against Detroit presents a very different environment than what he just faced against Minnesota. The Lions run the highest rate of man coverage in the league (41.7%), and Love has quietly been strong against man looks, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, a positive 4.6% completion percentage over expected, and adding functional scrambling production with 48 rushing yards on 102 dropbacks. Detroit’s defense is structurally aggressive and blitz-heavy, allowing the sixth-most passing touchdowns per game (1.8) and multiple touchdown performances to quarterbacks in eight of eleven contests. Even in a modest Week 1 performance, Love finished with 188 yards and 2 touchdowns on efficient 16-of-22 passing. With Detroit’s coverage routinely beaten on deep outbreakers and sideline verticals, and Christian Watson emerging as the team’s most effective man-beater, Love enters this game in position for a bounce-back through the air as the Packers attempt to match the Lions’ offensive pace in a short-week dome environment.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Pass TDs (-125)

RB Emanuel Wilson

Emanuel Wilson took over the backfield in Week 12 when Josh Jacobs was held out for precautionary reasons, handling a massive workload with 28 carries for 107 yards and two scores along with 18 receiving yards on two catches, demonstrating enough decisiveness and physicality to operate as a true every-down option if Jacobs remains limited. Detroit has been sturdy against the run from a yardage standpoint, giving up the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (79.3), but the Lions have shown consistent vulnerability in the red zone and on gap-scheme perimeter runs, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs and a top-10 rate in explosive runs. Wilson isn’t as dynamic as Jacobs but has shown dependable interior vision, and Green Bay leaned heavily into the ground game last week to protect Jordan Love in a conservative script. If Jacobs plays, Wilson becomes a rotational piece, but in short-week situations teams tend to lean on fresh legs, and Wilson’s work near the goal line last week positions him well to mix in again for scoring opportunities against a Lions defense that has conceded running back touchdowns in batches this season.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+220)

WR Romeo Doubs

Romeo Doubs continues to battle a wrist injury and has dipped below double-digit production in four of his last five games, but the role and route usage remain firmly intact as he played 67% of routes last week and continues to operate as Green Bay’s most frequently targeted intermediate possession receiver. Against Detroit’s heavy man-coverage approach—ranked No. 1 in the NFL—Doubs’ game has historically translated well, as he posted 2 catches for 68 yards in their Week 1 meeting and has averaged 1.23 yards per route run against man this season. The Lions are a highly volatile perimeter defense, allowing the fifth-most yards per reception (14.75) and the eleventh-most yards per route run to boundary receivers, often due to aggressive leverage that can be beaten on deep comebacks, back-shoulder timing throws, and slot fades. While Watson draws the explosive downfield role, Doubs remains Love’s most reliable chain-mover, and with Detroit’s secondary frequently giving up chunk gains to physical route runners, the matchup sets up well for Doubs to break at least one sizable gain even if overall volume remains modest.

Suggested Play:

'O' 19.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

WR Christian Watson

Christian Watson has now posted 45+ receiving yards in every one of his first five games this year and continues trending toward being the featured receiver in Jordan Love’s progression reads, coming off a game where he commanded a massive 32% target share and an 88% route rate in a blowout win over Minnesota. Detroit plays the highest rate of man coverage in football, and Watson has been Green Bay’s most dangerous weapon against man looks, averaging 2.79 yards per route run and routinely creating separation on overs, posts, and deep sideline routes where his long-stride speed becomes a matchup problem for corners playing press-man leverage. The Lions rank seventh-worst in receiving yards allowed to perimeter receivers and tenth-worst in yards per target allowed, showing regular breakdowns on vertical stems—an area where Watson’s skill set thrives. With Detroit’s defensive front likely forcing Love into quick vertical reads and Watson operating as both the primary deep-shot receiver and the top option against man, the setup strongly favors another red-zone or downfield scoring opportunity in a nationally televised divisional stage where Green Bay must score aggressively to keep pace.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+170)

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff heads into Thanksgiving operating one of the league’s most stable, timing-driven passing attacks, and he rebounded well in Week 12 after a rough outing vs. Philadelphia. His rhythm passing game returned against the Giants as he completed 28-of-42 throws for 279 yards and two touchdowns, showing once again how effective he is when kept clean and able to diagnose coverage pre-snap. Against Green Bay, he draws a defense leaning heavily on Cover 3 (32.4%) and Cover 2 (18.9%), structures Goff has historically excelled against; he’s posting 7.69 YPA, a +6.8% completion percentage over expected, and a 98.3 passer rating across 200 dropbacks vs. those shells. Joe Barry’s unit has been excellent at limiting explosive plays out of the slot but much more vulnerable outside the numbers, meaning Detroit’s quick-game, play-action, and RPO staples match up well with how Green Bay leverages their safeties. Goff completed 31-of-39 passes in the September meeting, rarely pushing the ball deep but consistently attacking the underneath zone voids. Expect Detroit to lean into tempo and spread formations again, forcing Green Bay’s linebackers into coverage conflicts.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs enters Thanksgiving as perhaps the NFL’s most explosive dual-threat back over the last month, coming off a historic performance where he became only the second player in league history (along with LaDainian Tomlinson) to record 200+ rushing yards and 10 receptions in the same game. His acceleration, perimeter speed, and receiving versatility create matchup nightmares for defenses that rely on off-zone structures — which is exactly what Green Bay does. Although the Packers sit middle-of-the-pack in most run-defense metrics (13th-fewest rushing yards allowed per game, ninth-fewest receiving yards allowed to RBs), their tackling efficiency and gap discipline have fluctuated, and Detroit’s offensive line had no issues displacing them in Week 1. Gibbs saw 19 total opportunities in that first matchup, but his role has dramatically expanded since then; he now leads the backfield in snap rate, routes, and explosive-play rate. Expect Ben Johnson to isolate Gibbs against linebackers in space using motion, angle routes, and perimeter toss looks, stressing a defense that can be slow to trigger downhill.

Suggested Play:

 Anytime Touchdown (-160)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the stabilizing engine of Detroit’s offense, stringing together yet another elite performance with 9 catches for 149 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets last week. His ability to separate vs. both zone and man makes him nearly scheme-proof, but this specific matchup is uniquely interesting: Green Bay allows the fewest slot receiving yards per game (37.5) and the fewest yards per route run (1.23) to slot receivers, a testament to their safety rotations and nickel cohesion. That said, St. Brown has repeatedly beaten elite coverage due to his route precision, choice-route freedom, and his nonstop involvement as the first read on key downs. Detroit also uses him creatively pre-snap — motion, stacks, return routes — which helps him avoid direct jams and allows him to find soft spots even against disciplined zone units. The Lions are unlikely to shy away from him simply because of metrics; historically, teams that try to limit St. Brown by shading help simply open up explosive plays for others. Expect heavy early volume, play-action crossers, and high-efficiency RPO slants to keep ARSB involved from the jump.

Suggested Play:

'O' 6.5 Receptions (-140)

WR Jameson Williams

Jameson Williams’ usage remained strong in Week 12 despite the zero-catch box score — he ran an 82% route share, was targeted deep, and even had a 36-yard gain wiped out by penalty. His volatility is tied to role rather than talent: Detroit deploys him as their primary field-stretcher, attacking the outer thirds and leveraging his speed to create coverage displacement for others. This matchup may actually favor him more than the box score from Week 1 suggests, because Green Bay’s defense has struggled to contain vertical perimeter routes, allowing the 12th-most receiving yards to outside receivers and ranking bottom-10 in deep-ball defensive EPA over the last month. With St. Brown commanding bracket attention and Gibbs demanding second-level help, Williams should find himself isolated in one-on-one situations — exactly where Goff has been more willing to give him chances in recent weeks. Expect a couple schemed shots, especially off max protection or post-motion looks that force the safeties to hesitate.

Suggested Play:

'O' 23.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

The Packers & Lions have had their fair share of shootouts as the L3 games the point totals have been 38,65,40. Now they play @DET in a dome rather than in the cold @GB. This Lions defense got shredded last week which is extremely concerning on a short week. Give me the over and the Lions to pull out a 7 point win.

Best Bet: Over 47.5 -110
Lean: Lions -2.5 -125 
Score Prediction: Packers 24 Lions 31

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet: (Packers) Christian Watson +170

Christian Watson has now posted 45+ receiving yards in every one of his first five games this year and continues trending toward being the featured receiver in Jordan Love’s progression reads, coming off a game where he commanded a massive 32% target share and an 88% route rate in a blowout win over Minnesota. Detroit plays the highest rate of man coverage in football, and Watson has been Green Bay’s most dangerous weapon against man looks, averaging 2.79 yards per route run and routinely creating separation on overs, posts, and deep sideline routes where his long-stride speed becomes a matchup problem for corners playing press-man leverage. The Lions rank seventh-worst in receiving yards allowed to perimeter receivers and tenth-worst in yards per target allowed, showing regular breakdowns on vertical stems—an area where Watson’s skill set thrives. With Detroit’s defensive front likely forcing Love into quick vertical reads and Watson operating as both the primary deep-shot receiver and the top option against man, the setup strongly favors another red-zone or downfield scoring opportunity in a nationally televised divisional stage where Green Bay must score aggressively to keep pace.

Best Bet: (Lions) Jahmyr Gibbs -160

Jahmyr Gibbs enters Thanksgiving as perhaps the NFL’s most explosive dual-threat back over the last month, coming off a historic performance where he became only the second player in league history (along with LaDainian Tomlinson) to record 200+ rushing yards and 10 receptions in the same game. His acceleration, perimeter speed, and receiving versatility create matchup nightmares for defenses that rely on off-zone structures — which is exactly what Green Bay does. Although the Packers sit middle-of-the-pack in most run-defense metrics (13th-fewest rushing yards allowed per game, ninth-fewest receiving yards allowed to RBs), their tackling efficiency and gap discipline have fluctuated, and Detroit’s offensive line had no issues displacing them in Week 1. Gibbs saw 19 total opportunities in that first matchup, but his role has dramatically expanded since then; he now leads the backfield in snap rate, routes, and explosive-play rate. Expect Ben Johnson to isolate Gibbs against linebackers in space using motion, angle routes, and perimeter toss looks, stressing a defense that can be slow to trigger downhill.

First TD

Longshot (Packers): Emanuel Wilson +1390

Emanuel Wilson profiles as Green Bay’s most logical early-touchdown candidate in this Thanksgiving matchup due to his usage tendencies, Green Bay’s scripting preferences, and Detroit’s defensive profile inside the red zone. When Josh Jacobs missed Week 12, Wilson absorbed a true bell-cow workload — 28 carries, 107 yards, and two rushing touchdowns — showing clearly that Matt LaFleur trusts him in short-yardage and goal-line scenarios. Detroit’s defense, while strong in run-stopping efficiency on early downs, ranks among the league’s most vulnerable units inside the 10-yard line, allowing a high conversion rate on red-zone carries and the sixth-most rushing touchdowns per game to opposing backfields. Green Bay has also leaned heavily on early-game ground attempts when facing aggressive man-coverage defenses like Detroit's (41.7% man, No. 1 in the NFL), using the run game to slow down Aidan Hutchinson and limit Love’s exposure to quick pressure. With Wilson's physical downhill style, decisive burst, and proven short-yardage finishing ability, combined with Detroit’s bottom-tier interior touchdown prevention, he stands out as the strongest probability to punch in the game’s first touchdown, especially if Jacobs remains limited or used sparingly.

Longshot (Lions): Jahmyr Gibbs +375

Jahmyr Gibbs is positioned as one of the strongest first-touchdown candidates on the Thanksgiving slate, and the data backs it up across usage, alignment, matchup, and Detroit’s scoring tendencies. Gibbs’ role has fully consolidated into a feature-back workload, but even more importantly for first-TD bets, he owns the high-leverage touches that decide opening drives. Over the last five weeks, Gibbs leads Detroit in red-zone touches, inside-the-10 touches, and first-read targets on scripted plays—an enormous indicator of how Ben Johnson scripts openers. The Lions have opened five of their last seven games with either Gibbs or Amon-Ra St. Brown as the primary touch-getter on the first series, and Green Bay’s defensive structure fuels Gibbs' style perfectly. The Packers sit bottom-10 in explosive run rate allowed and bottom-12 in yards before contact allowed when facing perimeter zone run concepts, which is exactly how Detroit manufactures chunk plays for Gibbs. Green Bay also ranks 29th in EPA allowed per rush on the first defensive drive of games—a massive tell that opposing offenses are able to dictate early tempo and win the LOS before adjustments. With Detroit’s OL healthy and Gibbs handling 75% of backfield touches last week, plus a consistent role in the passing game against a Packers LB group that struggles in man-match and Tampa-2 hook drops, Gibbs profiles as the most likely Lion to punch in the opening touchdown.

Parlay #1 (Packers) +985

Jordan Love 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs 

Romeo Doubs 'O' 19.5 Yard Longest Reception

Emanuel Wilson ATD

Parlay #2 (Lions) +290

Jared Goff 'O' 241.5 Pass Yards

Jahmyr Gibbs ATD

Amon-Ra St Brown 'O' 6.5 Receptions

QB Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes enters this matchup in one of the strangest stretches of his professional career—just a single total touchdown across his last three games despite still ranking near the top of the league in most efficiency metrics. His performance against Indianapolis was a perfect example of the dichotomy: 352 yards passing at 7.7 YPA, consistently generating explosive throws, but once again unable to convert those longer drives into touchdowns. The Dallas defense presents one of the most unusual profiles Mahomes has faced: they deploy Cover 3 on 37.3% of snaps—the sixth-highest rate—yet the structure has weaknesses that Mahomes has historically exploited. Against Cover 3 in his career he averages 9.18 YPA, an elite +8.2% CPOE, and adds mobility with 10/88 rushing on those dropbacks. Dallas’ issue isn’t yardage prevention—it’s touchdown prevention. They surrender 2.2 passing touchdowns per game, the highest figure in the league, and their back end has allowed explosive pass rates to spike when forced into single-high adjustments. Jalen Hurts showed this last week, producing 289 yards through the air while adding two rushing scores in their attempts to keep linebackers rotated toward the middle of the field. Mahomes is positioned to have one of his cleaner games if Kansas City’s offensive line prevents Dallas’ edge defenders from dictating protections.

Suggested Play:  

'O' 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+150)

RB Kareem Hunt

Kareem Hunt has operated as Kansas City’s most consistent offensive stabilizer during Isaiah Pacheco’s absence, stringing together four straight games with a touchdown and showcasing his trademark contact balance and patience. Against Indianapolis, Hunt logged 30 carries for 104 yards and added 3/26 receiving—an extremely rare workload in today’s league and a testament to how much trust Andy Reid currently has in him. Even with Pacheco set to return, Hunt’s recent production makes it unlikely that Kansas City simply relegates him to a secondary role. The Cowboys’ defensive front is structurally vulnerable in two key areas Hunt can exploit: they allow the 10th-most adjusted yards before contact (2.25) and rank bottom-three in receiving yardage allowed to running backs (45.2 YPG). That combination plays directly into Hunt’s profile as an early-down grinder with soft hands, and should allow Kansas City to maintain backfield versatility regardless of game flow. The Cowboys have held Saquon Barkley and Ashton Jeanty to just 29 combined rushing yards over the past two weeks, but both backs punished them in the pass game due to Dallas’ depth-deficient linebacker group. Hunt’s usage near the goal line—particularly in Reid’s compressed-formation red-zone packages—remains one of the safest touchdown paths of any RB on the slate.

Suggested Play: 

Anytime Touchdown (+122)

WR Rashee Rice

Rashee Rice remains the fulcrum of Kansas City’s passing game, owning the highest target share on the team and functioning as Mahomes’ primary progression read against both zone and middle-of-field open coverages. His 8/141 performance on 12 targets against Indianapolis highlighted exactly what separates him from the rest of the Chiefs’ receiving corps: elite efficiency versus zone, an ability to break first contact, and the capacity to consistently win underneath before converting into intermediate gains. This matchup against Dallas will feature heavy Cover 3, and Rice thrives against that structure, posting 2.84 YPRR, a 27% target-per-route rate, and strong separation metrics at the break point. Dallas allows the eighth-fewest yards to slot receivers, but that number can be misleading—teams rarely challenge them vertically from the slot, whereas Rice’s usage often includes flood concepts, deep crossers, and curl–flat manipulation that stretch the Cowboys’ landmark assignments. With outside receivers facing Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland, Rice is set up for yet another heavy-volume outing as Mahomes’ safest outlet when pressure arrives.

Suggested Play:

'O' 6.5 Receptions (-120)

TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce was quieter than expected against the Colts, finishing with 4/43 on six targets, but the usage profile remains elite: a 78% route share, significant middle-of-field involvement, and a team-leading red-zone matchup advantage most weeks. Dallas presents an interesting configuration for tight ends—Cover 3 creates seams between the hook-curl and deep-middle defenders, and Kelce has historically shredded those voids, averaging 2.84 yards per route run against that look. The Cowboys allow the 12th-most yards and eighth-most receptions to tight ends, often because their linebackers struggle to carry vertical stems or mid-crossers. Brock Bowers’ 7/72 line two weeks ago is a telling indicator of how Dallas handles athletic TEs capable of manipulating leverage. Kelce’s chemistry with Mahomes in scramble-drill situations is especially relevant here—Dallas’ pass rush generates chaos, but Mahomes’ mobility creates extended plays, and Kelce’s improvisation remains unmatched league-wide. With Kansas City frequently stalling in the red zone the past month, it’s reasonable to expect a correction in usage around the goal line, especially early in the game, and Kelce is the likeliest beneficiary.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+120)

QB Dak Prescott

What a come-from-behind win last week for Dak and the Cowboys over the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles. Prescott threw for 354 passing yards, which is the second highest total of the season against a tough Eagles defence. He'll see another tough defence in the Chiefs, who allow the 12th fewest completions per game (20.1) and the fifth fewest pass attempts (28.8), the seventh fewest passing yards (203.6) and the fourth lowest passing TDs (1.0) per game to opposing QBs. Kansas City sit near league averages in overall man (25.5%) and zone usage (69.6%), providing no edge either way. However, no team runs Cover 0 at a higher rate, dialling it up 8.2% of their plays. They also run Cover 2 at the ninth highest rate (18.5%) and the 10th most Cover 4 (16.3%). Against Cover 0, Prescott has struggled, completing just 46.7% of his throws on 15 dropbacks — the 11th most league-wide — producing the ninth lowest yards per attempt (2.53), but a decent 93.1 QBR. Against Cover 2, Prescott has faced the eighth most dropbacks (64), completing 73.8% of his passes, an 8.21 yards per attempt with a 96.4 QBR. Against Cover 4, Prescott has the 11th highest completion percentage (73.3%) with the sixth highest yards per attempt (8.07), but a low 69 (nice) QBR. Prescott doesn't use his legs much, but he might have success with it this week as the Chiefs allow the sixth most rushing yards (23.5) per game to opposing QBs. But that's not his game. He has just four games this season where he's had double-digit rushing yards. It all comes down to what Dak does with his arm. He might have a successful day, but I can't see it coming with much volume. Prescott has completed 25+ passes just once in his last five games.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott u24.5 Pass Completions (-120)

RB Javonte Williams

What more can you say about Javonte at this point? He just continues to get it done on the ground, posting 87 rushing yards on 20 attempts. This week, he'll get one of the most feared run defences in the league in the Chiefs. Kansas City allow the fewest rush attempts (17.4) and the fourth fewest rushing yards (73.3) per game to opposing RBs. They rely heavily upon zone concept run defence, running it at 50.4% compared to just 28.3% man/gap. And that's to the benefit of them, as they allow a 4.05 yards per carry against zone and 4.29 against man/gap. That doesn't suit up well for Williams, as he is much better against man/gap, averaging 5.66 yards per carry, compared to a 4.3 yards per carry against zone concept. Even through the air, the Chiefs have minimized opposing RBs, allowing the 13th fewest receptions (4.2) and the 16th fewest receiving yards (30.9) to the position. It's been a phenomenal year for Williams this season, but that doesn't mean he hasn't had his down weeks. And this matchup projects to be one of those rare down weeks for Williams.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams u78.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-111)

WR CeeDee Lamb

Is CeeDee Lamb dipping his gloves in melted butter before every series? Because he's had a drop issue these past two weeks, dropping three balls over that span. His volume is still encouraging though, with 11 targets last week, but he was only able to corral four of those balls. The Chiefs allow the 15th fewest receptions per game (10.9) but are even better at limiting yardage, allowing the second fewest receiving yards per game (117.4). Unfortunately, the Chiefs run around league average in both man coverage and zone coverage, so there's no edge there. However, we can look at their top three most-used coverages to see if Lamb has an edge in that regard. Against Cover 0, Lamb has seen limited but aggressive involvement, catching one pass on three targets for five yards on six routes, but earning his highest target share of the three coverages listed at 27.3%. Cover 2 has been much more successful for Lamb; he has eight receptions on nine targets for 178 yards on 43 routes, with a 17.3% target share. Against Cover 4, Lamb's numbers aren't as great, logging just five receptions on 12 targets for 56 yards across 35 routes. However, he is still the most looked at receiver against the look, garnering a 32.4% target share. Lamb sees most of his work from out wide (67.2%) this season. Against outside receivers, the Chiefs are targeted at the third-lowest rate (110), allowing the 14th-lowest yards per reception (12.87) but the third-highest catch rate (68.2%). With all that in mind, it seems like a bit of a meh matchup for Lamb. Cowboys HC Brian Schottenheimer said earlier this week that Lamb "has that look in his eye". However, it won't be as easy to do so, as the Chiefs have run 2-High at the 5th highest rate this year, and Lamb averages 2.28 YPRR against 2-HI, but he has only caught a concerning 21/39 targets for a 53.8% catch rate and averages a 13.4 aDoT on these targets. His targets of late are undeniable, but will he be able to bring them in what projects to be a tough matchup coverage-wise.

Suggested pick:

CeeDee Lamb u6.5 Receptions (-105)

WR George Pickens

Nobody will ever say it, but Pickens has been the Cowboys' best receiver even when Lamb returned. He was perfect last week, catching all nine of his targets for 146 receiving yards and a TD. But as we've covered, this might be his toughest test of late. Against Cover 0, Pickens has been heavily targeted but completely unproductive: zero receptions on five targets on 12 routes, despite earning a massive 29.4% target share. But those numbers improve against Cover 2, where Pickens has five receptions on seven targets for 82 receiving yards on 56 routes. It's not as good of a target share (14.3%), but more productive nonetheless. Cover 4 will be his best output: Pickens has caught all 12 of his targets for 174 yards across 48 routes, earning a 26.7% target share. Like Lamb, Pickens does most of his work on the outside, running 88.2% of his routes from that alignment. We've covered how the Chiefs have had success limiting the position; however, with the way Pickens is rolling right now, and Lamb consistently drawing the most difficult matchups, it typically opens up the field for Pickens, to which he's finding massive success lately. Pickens has logged 75+ receiving yards in six straight weeks, averaging 116.2 receiving yards per game. Until it slows down, you've just gotta ride the hot hand.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens o74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson had his best week since Lamb's return, catching five of six targets for 60 receiving yards. He'll look to roll that over this week against the Chiefs, who allow the eighth-fewest receptions (4.7) and the 14th-fewest receiving yards (49.6) per game to the position. Against Cover 0, Ferguson has been minimally involved with just one reception on one target for a single yard across seven routes, earning only a 5.9% target share. But teams typically don't see Cover 0 too often, and when they do, it's hard for tight ends to get the targets as they mostly run on the inside. Against Cover 2, Ferguson becomes one of the most reliable options in the Cowboys’ passing game. He leads the team in usage with 16 receptions on 20 targets for 126 yards on 52 routes, commanding a 32.3% target share. Against Cover 4, Ferguson has been perfect on his targets, catching all four of them for 30 yards, but his 8.9% target share indicate he really just isn't used against the coverage. With Lamb commanding more routes on the outside, Ferguson lines up in the slot on 53.5% of his routes. Against slot receivers, the Chiefs are targeted at the 14th-highest rate, allowing the 10th-highest catch rate (72.6%) but the second fewest yards per reception (7.82). However, Ferguson will be able to exploit the Cowboys in a specific coverage. Dallas run play action (31.25%) to which the Chiefs allow a league high 2.92 yards per route run when facing play action. When the Cowboys run play action, Ferguson leads the team by far in receptions (29) and a team-high 31.7% 1st Read Rate. The next closest is Lamb with 16. Ferguson switches up his alignment on playaction, running 75% of his routes inline. The Chiefs give up an insane 5.47 yards per route run and 17.87 yards per reception on 15 receptions to inline receivers. Ferguson should be in for a heavy volume day, especially when the Cowboys take advantage of the Chiefs in play action.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson o34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Jake Ferguson 50+ Receiving Yards (+225)

Best Bet
Lean 
Score Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet: (Chiefs) Kareem Hunt +122

Kareem Hunt has operated as Kansas City’s most consistent offensive stabilizer during Isaiah Pacheco’s absence, stringing together four straight games with a touchdown and showcasing his trademark contact balance and patience. Against Indianapolis, Hunt logged 30 carries for 104 yards and added 3/26 receiving—an extremely rare workload in today’s league and a testament to how much trust Andy Reid currently has in him. Even with Pacheco set to return, Hunt’s recent production makes it unlikely that Kansas City simply relegates him to a secondary role. The Cowboys’ defensive front is structurally vulnerable in two key areas Hunt can exploit: they allow the 10th-most adjusted yards before contact (2.25) and rank bottom-three in receiving yardage allowed to running backs (45.2 YPG). That combination plays directly into Hunt’s profile as an early-down grinder with soft hands, and should allow Kansas City to maintain backfield versatility regardless of game flow. The Cowboys have held Saquon Barkley and Ashton Jeanty to just 29 combined rushing yards over the past two weeks, but both backs punished them in the pass game due to Dallas’ depth-deficient linebacker group. Hunt’s usage near the goal line—particularly in Reid’s compressed-formation red-zone packages—remains one of the safest touchdown paths of any RB on the slate.

Best Pick: (Cowboys): Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+210)

It was tough to pick a TD scorer against this Chiefs defence as the Chiefs don't really allow too many to any specific position group. They average 0.54 TDs per game to RBs, 0.64 to WRs, and 0.27 to TEs. So, we're just taking the guy who has the best-looking matchup to find the end zone. Ferguson leads the Cowboys in receptions (4) and targets (6) in the red zone this season.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Chiefs): Travis Kelce +824

Travis Kelce enters this matchup against Dallas positioned for one of his highest-leverage scoring opportunities of the season. Even in a relatively quiet game against Indianapolis, he still drew 6 targets and ran a route on 78% of dropbacks, maintaining his central role in the structure of Kansas City’s early-script passing concepts. The Cowboys play Cover 3 on 37.3% of snaps, and Kelce has historically shredded that look, averaging 2.84 yards per route run and a .23 target-per-route rate across 83 routes. The most important indicator for a first-touchdown angle, however, is how defenses treat Kansas City inside the 20. Dallas has allowed the most passing touchdowns per game (2.2) to opposing quarterbacks and has shown consistent early-drive vulnerability, particularly up the seams and on crossers—areas where Kelce is the preferred option when Mahomes wants to settle the offense and calm early pressure. With Pacheco returning but likely on a managed workload, red-zone volume projects to remain pass-heavy, and Mahomes has historically leaned on Kelce to open scoring drives when facing aggressive pass rushes. Add in the Cowboys’ recent struggles against tight ends—7/72 to Bowers two weeks ago—and all signs point to Kansas City designing an early possession specifically to isolate Kelce against a rotated safety.

Best Pick: (Cowboys) CeeDee Lamb First TD (+900)

If Schottenheimer is right and CeeDee Lamb does have that look in his eyes, then Lamb could be the one to break it early and grab the first TD in this game.

Parlay #1 (Chiefs) +916

Kareem Hunt ATD

Patrick Mahomes 'O' 2.5 Pass TDs

Rashee Rice 'O' 6.5 Receptions

Parlay 2: (Cowboys) +300 odds on bet365

Jake Ferguson 5+ Receptions

Jake Ferguson 50+ Receiving Yards

QB Joe Burrow

Burrow will make his return on Thanksgiving for the first time since his turf toe injury he suffered in week 2. Burrow threw for just 113 yards in his only full start this season against the Browns. Last season, Burrow averaged 289.3 passing yards per game, 7.54 YPA and a 70.6% completion rate. He threw 43 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 19^th in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 9^th most passing yards per game (230). Baltimore has the 13^th lowest pressure rate on the season (36.2%) but they have improved as of late pressuring at a 39.9% rate since week 7. Burrow averaged 7.61 YPA and a 56.3% completion rate when pressured last season compared to 7.52 YPA and a 75.2% completion rate when not pressured. The Ravens have played single-high at the 4^th highest rate in the NFL (60.4%), however, the Bengals offense has seen the highest rate of two-high (62%) because of the deep threat of Chase and Higgins. Higgins will be out in this game, but Chase will be back from a 1-game suspension. In the 2 head-to-head matchups last season, the Ravens played two-high at a 55.3% rate against them. 6 of the last 8 QBs have gone over their respective passing yards line against the Ravens. The Bengals are 7-point underdogs, and this game has a massive 51.5 implied total. Joe may have some rust early but expect him to have a big overall game Thanksgiving night.

Suggested Pick:

Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-118)

RB Chase Brown

In the first 6 weeks of the season, Chase Brown averaged 33.7 rushing yards per game on 2.73 YPC. In the past 5, he’s averaging 84.8 rushing yards per game on 5.97 YPC. Samaje Perine, who has been practicing in full this week, is likely to return after being sidelined with a high-ankle sprain since week 9. Since week 9, Brown has had a bell cow role, accounting for 80% of team rush attempts and he’s run a 79.2% route participation rate. From weeks 1 to 8, Brown accounted for 63% of team rush attempts and had only a 44.2% route participation rate. Perine will likely be eased into action in his first game back, but on the margin, we should see Brown’s role diminish. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 13^th in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 13^th most rushing yards per game on the season. Since week 7, the Ravens rush defense has been better, allowing the 9^th fewest yards per game. The Ravens are allowing the 2^nd fewest YPC against zone concept (3.37), compared to the 3^rd most YPC against man/gap (5.45). Brown has a 50-50 split between the 2 rush concepts. He’s averaging 4.37 YPC and a 47.9% success rate in zone concept, compared to 4.31 YPC and a 52.8% success rate in man/gap. In terms of the receiving matchup, the Ravens have allowed the 8^th most receiving yards per game to RB. As mentioned earlier, Brown’s role will likely diminish with the return of Perine. I’ll pass due to the uncertainty around Perine’s role in his return. The Bengals are a touchdown underdog, and I expect them to be extremely pass heavy. I lean under on his rushing.

Suggested Pick:

Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

WR Ja’Marr Chase

Chase will return on Thanksgiving after missing last week after getting suspended due to his spitting incident. Chase is averaging 86.1 receiving yards per game, 2.27 YPRR and has been targeted on 30% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 40.7%. Joe Burrow will return for the first time since he suffered his turf toe injury in week 2. Tee Higgins is out with an injury. Last season with Higgins off the field, Chase averaged 2.22 YPRR, negative splits compared to his 2.54 YPRR with Higgins on the field. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 19^th in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 9^th most receiving yards per game (230). They are allowing the 11^th fewest YPRR (1.82) specifically to wide + slot alignment. The Ravens have played single-high at the 4^th highest rate in the NFL (60.4%); however, the Bengals offense has seen the highest rate of two-high (62%) because of the deep threat of Chase and Higgins. In the 2 head-to-head matchups last season, the Ravens played two-high at a 55.3% rate against them. Chase averages 2.02 YPRR and 38% TPRR against single-high, compared to 2.42 YPRR and 25% TPRR against two-high this season. Chase has had 193 and 264 receiving yards in his last 2 matchups against the Ravens, both last season. Higgins didn’t play in the most recent H2H, where Chase was targeted 17 times, leading to that 264 receiving yard game. The Bengals are 7-point underdogs with a 51.5 implied total, I like Chase to eat!

Suggested Pick:

Over 92.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

WR Andrei Iosivas

Last week in a game Higgins left early with an injury and Chase was suspended, Iosivas led the team in receiving. He ran a route on 84.6% of drop backs, catching 4 of 7 targets for 61 yards. Higgins is out but Chase will return, Iosivas will operate as Burrow’s number 2 WR. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 19^th in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 9^th most receiving yards per game (230). They are allowing the 11^th fewest YPRR (1.82) specifically to wide + slot alignment. The Ravens have played man coverage at a top 5 rate this season (35%). Iosivas averages 1.47 YPRR and 15% TPRR against man coverage. That compares to 0.70 YPRR and 12% TPRR against zone. I lean over at just a 32.5 receiving yard line and the Bengals a touchdown underdog with a 51.5 implied total.

Suggested Pick:

Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Mike Gesicki

Last week in the first game off IR, Mike Gesicki led the TE group running a route on 64.1% of drop backs. Noah Fant had just a 15.4% route rate and Tanner Hudson was at 28.2%. Gesicki caught 4 of 6 targets for 35 yards. The Bengals use Gesicki as a larger receiver with Higgins out. With Higgins off the field last season, Gesicki averaged 2.05 YPRR and was targeted on 26% of his routes. He’ll face a Ravens defense that is middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed to TE. In this same matchup last season without Higgins, Gesicki caught 4 of 9 targets for 30 yards. The Ravens have played man coverage at a top 5 rate this season (35%). Gesicki averages 0.20 YPRR against man coverage this season compared to 1.15 YPRR against zone. However, that’s a small sample size considering his lesser role with his health and Higgins playing more this season. Last season, he averaged 2.51 YPRR against man compared to 1.30 YPRR against zone. I like his receptions line as he’s been targeted at least 6 times in 4 straight when Higgins doesn’t play.

Suggested Pick:

Over 3.5 Receptions (-135)

QB Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson enters this matchup in an uncharacteristic slump, failing to account for a touchdown in back-to-back games and falling below 8 total points in both. His passing efficiency remains inconsistent, completing 13/23 passes for 153 yards (6.7 YPA) last week while adding just 11 rushing yards — a concerning trend given he’s averaging a career-low 29.6 rushing yards per game. The drop-off in explosive rushing has been tied to Baltimore’s shift toward more designed passing and increased interior pressure allowed by the offensive line. However, this matchup brings a notable schematic edge. Cincinnati plays Cover 3 at the eighth-highest rate (34.3%), and Jackson has historically shredded that structure, averaging 11.49 YPA with an elite 19.9% CPOE and efficient scrambling lanes when forced to pull the ball down. The Bengals have struggled mightily against quarterbacks all season, allowing the third-most passing yards per game (266.9) and the second-most passing TDs per game (2.1). While Baltimore’s recent offensive issues are real, Jackson posted 638 passing yards, 8 TDs, and 88 rushing yards across two matchups with Cincinnati last year, and the defensive metrics suggest another ceiling-type opportunity if he’s willing to push the ball vertically again.

Suggested Play:

'O' 2.5 Passing TDs (+105)

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry continues to be a foundational piece of Baltimore’s offense, logging 20+ touches in six straight games and scoring twice last week on 21/64 rushing while adding 24 yards through the air. His workload remains game-script dependent, and with Baltimore entering as 7-point home favorites, he’s positioned for another 18–22 carry performance — similar to his usage across previous Ravens victories. What elevates Henry’s outlook is Cincinnati’s current status as one of the softest run defenses in the league. They rank dead last in rushing yards allowed per game (131.1), second in RB receiving yards allowed (45.9), and seventh-worst in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.39). Their defensive front has been particularly vulnerable to power and gap-scheme runs, which aligns perfectly with how Baltimore deploys Henry on downhill concepts. He torched this defense for 160 yards and two touchdowns last season, and the Bengals’ run fits have only regressed since. This is a matchup where Baltimore can assert physical dominance, especially inside the red zone.

Suggested Play:

'O' 87.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers remains the most reliable wide receiver in Baltimore’s offense, delivering 58 yards last week while commanding a 26% target share and an elite 93% route participation. Flowers has cleared 64+ scrimmage yards in nine of eleven games, functioning as both Lamar Jackson’s first-read option and the primary schemed-touch player. Against the Bengals, he draws a coverage profile that he has historically excelled against — Cincinnati runs Cover 3 on 34.3% of snaps, and Flowers averages 3.07 yards per route run and a strong 27% target rate versus that structure. The Bengals have limited perimeter efficiency overall (12th-fewest receiving yards allowed to outside WRs), but their vulnerability lies in allowing explosive plays off intermediate crossing patterns and deep-over concepts, which are key staples of Flowers' usage. He posted 7/111 and 4/34 in two matchups last season and will again function as the primary separator against a secondary that has allowed the seventh-most completions of 20+ yards.

Suggested Play:

'O' 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews posted his quietest outing in over a month last week, managing a single 9-yard catch while battling heavy bracket coverage and a reduced route share. However, his matchup this week is arguably the best possible for a tight end. The Bengals are giving up the most receiving yards per game to tight ends (87.5), the most receptions per game (6.9), and were just shredded by Hunter Henry for 7/115/1. Cincinnati’s defensive structure repeatedly isolates their linebackers and safeties in space versus tight ends when playing Cover 3 — a coverage Andrews has excellent historical production against, averaging 1.23 YPRR and maintaining a 18% target rate despite consistent defensive focus. With Baltimore expected to face multiple red-zone trips due to Cincinnati’s defensive struggles, Andrews should return to his high-leverage role, especially in scoring areas where Jackson turns to him most often.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+102)

The Ravens run game will be successful and will open up a ton for Lamar in the passing game. Lamar is a beast and I expect them to dominate against a team who have a lot of question marks coming into this game

Best Bet Ravens -6.5 -150
Lean Under 50.5 -120
Score Prediction Bengals 17 Ravens 33

Anytime TD Scorer

Mike Gesicki (Bengals) +400

Gesicki was targeted 6 times in his return from IR last week and ran a healthy 68.4% of dropbacks. With Tee Higgins out, Gesicki will operate a lot out of the as the Bengals like to have a bigger receiving option. Gesicki had 2 TDs last season in a game without Higgins. I like this price!

Mark Andrews (Ravens) +102

Mark Andrews posted his quietest outing in over a month last week, managing a single 9-yard catch while battling heavy bracket coverage and a reduced route share. However, his matchup this week is arguably the best possible for a tight end. The Bengals are giving up the most receiving yards per game to tight ends (87.5), the most receptions per game (6.9), and were just shredded by Hunter Henry for 7/115/1. Cincinnati’s defensive structure repeatedly isolates their linebackers and safeties in space versus tight ends when playing Cover 3 — a coverage Andrews has excellent historical production against, averaging 1.23 YPRR and maintaining a 18% target rate despite consistent defensive focus. With Baltimore expected to face multiple red-zone trips due to Cincinnati’s defensive struggles, Andrews should return to his high-leverage role, especially in scoring areas where Jackson turns to him most often.

First TD Scorer

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) +800

Chase went off last matchup against the Ravens without Tee Higgins, with 264 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Joe Burrow is back and I expect him to pepper Ja’Marr. I like the Bengals to have a pass heavy approach and Chase is the top option to score first.

Derrick Henry (Ravens) +450

Derrick Henry enters this matchup as the centerpiece of Baltimore’s run-first identity, and the setup against Cincinnati gives him one of the strongest touchdown scripts of the entire Week 13 slate. Henry has handled 20+ touches in six straight games while averaging 18.3 carries in victories, and Baltimore enters this matchup as a 7-point home favorite — exactly the type of game environment that has historically produced early-drive scoring opportunities for him. The Bengals continue to profile as one of the NFL’s most vulnerable front sevens, giving up the seventh-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.39), the most rushing yards per game (131.1), and the second-most receiving yards per game to running backs (45.9). Their defensive line has struggled to hold interior gaps and has been particularly soft inside the 10-yard line, allowing short-area success rates nearly 10% higher than league average. Henry gashed this defense for 31/160/2 on the ground across two matchups last season, and Baltimore’s blocking scheme — heavily gap-influenced with downhill pullers — aligns perfectly with where Cincinnati has been most exploitable. With Baltimore likely leaning on the run early to steady the offense after back-to-back disappointing outings from Lamar Jackson, Henry projects as the likeliest Raven to touch the ball inside the 5-yard line, giving him clear first-score upside in a matchup that heavily favors his usage, efficiency, and touchdown probability.

Parlay #1 (Bengals) +323

Joe Burrow 250+ Passing Yards
Ja’Marr Chase 90+ Receiving Yards
Chase Brown Under 54.5 Rushing Yards

Parlay #2 (Ravens) +400

Lamar Jackson 'O' 2.5 Pass TDs

Zay Flowers 'O' 57.5 Receiving Yards
Derrick Henry ATD

QB Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy is coming off a volatile outing in which he completed 23/32 passes for 193 yards (6.0 YPA), 1 TD, and 3 INTs, marking one of his least efficient performances despite San Francisco still controlling the game. Purdy has been far more stable throwing against man coverage this season, averaging 9.05 YPA, a 138.9 passer rating, and a +15% CPOE on 21 dropbacks versus man. That matters here because Cleveland deploys man on the fourth-highest rate in the league (37.1%), leaning on sticky corners and aggressive match rules. However, their overall structure still limits explosives — the Browns allow the third-fewest passing yards per game (193.4) but the 15th-most passing TDs per game (1.5) to opposing QBs. Cleveland’s elite four-man rush generates pressure without blitzing, and Purdy's efficiency drops sharply when pressured; his turnover-worthy plays spike during muddy pockets, which is the scenario Cleveland forces consistently. This matchup becomes a clash between Purdy’s ability to win rhythm throws vs man and Cleveland’s elite ability to disrupt timing. With the 49ers likely aiming for a run-first, slow-paced, controlled script against a defense that shrinks yardage but occasionally allows red-zone conversions, Purdy projects for a restrained statistical output that leans more efficiency-dependent than volume-dependent.

Suggested Play:
'U' 202.5 Passing Yards (-120)

RB Christian McCaffery

Christian McCaffrey remains one of the most reliable first-touchdown scorers in the league because of San Francisco’s opening-script tendencies and the way Kyle Shanahan prioritizes establishing the run and using motion/RPO looks near the goal line. Even against a defense as elite as Cleveland, the 49ers typically design their initial drives around sequencing McCaffrey into both zone and gap runs to test alignment discipline and create horizontal stress. Cleveland’s defense is elite overall, but most of their early-drive damage comes from pressure and coverage—not from short-yardage red-zone denial. If San Francisco reaches the low red zone on their opening drive, Shanahan’s probability of dialing up multiple CMC touches increases sharply, especially with their heavy-motion goal-line sets that isolate linebackers and create cutback lanes. McCaffrey’s versatility—inside runs, perimeter tosses, leak routes, and angle concepts—gives him multiple pathways to the first score. His TD equity is highest early in the game before Cleveland’s front adjusts to formation tendencies and begins triggering downhill faster against the run. Given that San Francisco frequently scripts its most efficient drive of the game first, CMC maintains a strong statistical opening-drive scoring profile even in a difficult matchup.

Suggested Play:
First TD (+350)

WR Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings carries a specific touchdown profile that can still hold value even in a constricted matchup like this one. Jennings is one of the 49ers’ most trusted short-area, high-leverage red-zone options, particularly on isolation routes, slants, back-shoulder fades, and scramble-drill adjustments. While Cleveland’s defense compresses yardage and limits explosive plays, they do occasionally give up red-zone passing touchdowns because their tight man coverage forces offenses to throw into contested areas rather than allowing easy rushing scores. That dynamic actually favors a physical receiver like Jennings, who consistently wins through contact, maintains strong body control in condensed spaces, and is often Purdy’s go-to “trust receiver” on third downs and goal-to-go plays. Jennings isn’t a volume yardage player in this matchup, but he is one of the few San Francisco receivers who can convert a low-target day into a touchdown because of his role in short-field situations and Purdy’s willingness to let him play bully-ball near the stripe. In a game where Cleveland’s pass rush can force off-schedule plays, Jennings’ knack for sitting in soft spots or working back to the quarterback can help him find the end zone.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+250)

WR Ricky Pearsall

Ricky Pearsall faces one of the toughest matchups for a rookie wideout. Cleveland’s secondary is long, fast, physical, and coordinated, and their pressure front shortens the time available for downfield route development — the area where Pearsall typically wins. His separation ability is strong, but Cleveland forces WRs into constricted stems and demands near-perfect timing to beat man coverage. The Browns’ defense allows the fewest explosive pass plays in the league and routinely holds non-primary receiving options well below expectation. Pearsall may see some schemed touches — quick screens, crossers, slot fades — but the Browns’ defensive identity is designed exactly to erase these efficient supplemental touches by rallying downhill, playing tight match coverage, and disrupting YAC before it starts. With SF likely leaning on ball control and tight formation usage, Pearsall is set up for a low-margin-for-error receiving workload.

Suggested Play:
'U' 28.5 Receiving Yards

TE George Kittle

Cleveland’s defense allows the fewest yards per attempt to tight ends, and their safety/LB combination excels at matching vertical stems, eliminating seams, and closing windows quickly. The Browns also generate pressure without sacrificing coverage numbers, which often forces TEs to stay in protection or chip on passing downs — further reducing routes. Kittle thrives on explosiveness and efficiency, but Cleveland has shut down chunk plays to TEs all season due to disciplined zone landmarks and athletic man coverage that prevents late separation. Combined with the Browns’ elite ability to squeeze intermediate windows — where Kittle does the most damage — this sets up as a low-volume, low-margin receiving environment. San Francisco may attempt to use Kittle as a misdirection piece or blocker to neutralize Cleveland’s front, but statistically this matchup heavily caps his route-run value and yardage ceiling.

Suggested Play:
'U' 46.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

QB Shedeur Sanders

Shedeur Sanders delivered an efficient but low-volume debut, completing 11/20 passes for 209 yards (10.5 YPA), 1 TD, and 1 INT while showing poise under pressure and a willingness to test intermediate windows. Against San Francisco, he steps into a matchup defined by volatility: the 49ers give up the eighth-most passing yards per game (248.8) and the sixth-most passing TDs per game (1.8), but they also create frequent disruptive sequences through simulated pressures, fire-zone looks, and late safety rotations. Their defense is built to force quarterbacks into tight-window throws in the intermediate middle, an area Sanders is willing to attack but where timing has to be exact. SF deploys Cover 3 on 37.3% of snaps, a coverage that baits vertical perimeter throws but closes on outbreakers with speed; Sanders’ college profile suggests comfort versus zone, but the NFL speed he’ll see here is a different burden. The 49ers’ front can win quickly inside, and Sanders’ tendency to hold the ball for route development introduces risk of drive-killing pressure. Still, explosive windows do exist: SF has allowed chunk plays to disciplined, in-structure passers who stay patient and avoid panic movement. Sanders profiles as a high-variance passer in this spot—capable of isolated explosives but likely suppressed in completion volume due to SF’s scheme-tightened intermediate zones and disguised rotations. An efficiency-dependent stat line is the more probable outcome.

Suggested Play:
'U' 27.5 Pass Attempts (-125)

RB Quinshon Judkins

Quinshon Judkins enters this matchup after breaking a three-game scoreless streak, but the underlying efficiency issues remain. His recent stretch includes 3.86 YPC, just 1.47 yards before contact per rush, and a 56.1% stuff rate—an indicator that he is consistently met early in runs and forced into low-explosive scripts. San Francisco’s run defense compounds that issue: they allow the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game (84.1) and are structurally built to squeeze early-down lanes by compressing interior gaps and forcing backs to run horizontally. The 49ers’ defensive line wins with penetration rather than bulk, making north–south runs difficult and punishing indecision. Judkins’ route share also dipped last week, with Dylan Sampson surpassing him (29% vs. 24%) and siphoning receiving production. However, SF does allow the ninth-most receiving yards to RBs (36.0), and they have shown vulnerability to screens and angle routes when their linebackers trigger downhill too aggressively. Judkins’ best path to functional production likely comes through the passing game rather than raw rushing volume. On the ground, San Francisco’s leverage-setting and edge discipline are uniquely well suited to reduce a back with his current efficiency profile. The matchup pushes him into a yardage-suppressed expectation unless Cleveland leans heavily into misdirection and RB involvement in the flats.

Suggested Play:
'U' 68.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy continues to carry a strong route share (91% last week) but has struggled to convert it into meaningful production, failing to eclipse 51 yards in nine of his last ten games. His matchup becomes even more restrictive here. San Francisco runs Cover 3 on 37.3% of snaps, and Jeudy averages just 0.87 yards per route run and a 0.19 target rate per route against that coverage on 93 routes—numbers that signal his route archetype does not stress the weak points of this structure. The 49ers’ defense ranks top-10 in both fewest receiving yards allowed to perimeter receivers (92.6 YPG) and fewest yards per route allowed (1.70), largely because their corners stay disciplined in deep-thirds leverage and drive aggressively on timing routes. Jeudy’s separation skill is valuable, but SF’s zone-heavy shell forces receivers into compressed spaces and reduces the effectiveness of pure horizontal separators. Sanders’ limited NFL sample also suggests he is more comfortable targeting vertical breaks and seam windows than multi-break timing routes, which further limits Jeudy’s yardage ceiling. Jeudy may still hit one schemed explosive—his best-case path in this matchup—but the consistent per-route suppression from SF makes a sustained yardage output unlikely.

Suggested Play:
'U' 28.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Harold Fannin

Harold Fannin has become Sanders’ most stable underneath option, seeing 6 targets (30% share) and producing 4/40 in the rookie QB’s debut. His usage is consolidated, and the matchup—while challenging—actually offers some tactical advantages. The 49ers allow the 11th-most receiving yards to tight ends (53.1) and 14th-most receptions per game (5.6), stemming from the way their Cover 3 structure concedes soft spots between hook/curl defenders and the deep-middle safety. Fannin has been extremely efficient against Cover 3, producing 2.62 yards per route and a 0.32 target-per-route rate—elite marks for a TE in that coverage context. Cleveland used him as a spacing manipulator last week, aligning him in condensed splits to create leverage against linebackers, and that approach remains viable here. SF’s linebackers react aggressively to play action, leaving pockets behind them where Fannin excels as a sit-down option. He may not find explosive volume, but he is the Browns pass catcher best aligned with what SF typically concedes. With Njoku’s role reduced and Fannin running a growing percentage of the routes, his underlying usage supports a modest but over-leaning expectation in this matchup.

Suggested Play:
'O' 3.5 Receptions (-140)

I don't see Sanders and this Browns team winning B2B games. This 49ers team is HOT right now. The weather in this game is going to be brutal as it's 35 degrees with a chance of snow and 21 Mph winds. Purdy has played in 1 career game when it's less than 40 degrees with 10+ winds which was last season and he threw 18x going 11/18 having 94 yards with a 4.5 aDOT. They ran the ball 27x in a 25 point loss! I don't trust Sanders in this spot Either. 

Best Bet Under 36.5 -115
Lean 49ers -5.5 -108
Score Prediction 49ers 20 Browns 14

Anytime TD Scorer

Jauan Jennings (49ers) +250

Jauan Jennings carries a specific touchdown profile that can still hold value even in a constricted matchup like this one. Jennings is one of the 49ers’ most trusted short-area, high-leverage red-zone options, particularly on isolation routes, slants, back-shoulder fades, and scramble-drill adjustments. While Cleveland’s defense compresses yardage and limits explosive plays, they do occasionally give up red-zone passing touchdowns because their tight man coverage forces offenses to throw into contested areas rather than allowing easy rushing scores. That dynamic actually favors a physical receiver like Jennings, who consistently wins through contact, maintains strong body control in condensed spaces, and is often Purdy’s go-to “trust receiver” on third downs and goal-to-go plays. Jennings isn’t a volume yardage player in this matchup, but he is one of the few San Francisco receivers who can convert a low-target day into a touchdown because of his role in short-field situations and Purdy’s willingness to let him play bully-ball near the stripe. In a game where Cleveland’s pass rush can force off-schedule plays, Jennings’ knack for sitting in soft spots or working back to the quarterback can help him find the end zone.

Quinshon Judkins (Browns) -105

Quinshon Judkins’ touchdown outlook is stronger than his yardage projection, largely because of how Cleveland uses him inside the 5-yard line and in tight red-zone structures. Even with reduced efficiency and elevated stuff rates, Judkins remains the Browns’ preferred goal-line and short-yardage finisher, especially in downhill formations where Cleveland tries to neutralize defensive penetration through motion, misdirection, and condensed splits. Against the 49ers, punching in touchdowns requires sustaining drives into scoring territory rather than gaining consistent chunk runs, and Judkins is exactly the type of back who can capitalize on a small number of high-value touches. San Francisco’s defense stiffens between the 20s but has shown vulnerability around the stripe, allowing offenses to finish drives through inside-zone cutbacks and gap-scheme power where aggressiveness can be used against them. Judkins retains strong TD equity because of Cleveland’s willingness to hand him the ball near the goal line and because his physical style matches well with the type of condensed scoring situations the Browns are likely to encounter. Even if his rushing efficiency is limited, his short-area usage keeps him firmly in play for a touchdown.

First TD Scorer

Christian McCaffery (49ers) +350

Christian McCaffrey remains one of the most reliable first-touchdown scorers in the league because of San Francisco’s opening-script tendencies and the way Kyle Shanahan prioritizes establishing the run and using motion/RPO looks near the goal line. Even against a defense as elite as Cleveland, the 49ers typically design their initial drives around sequencing McCaffrey into both zone and gap runs to test alignment discipline and create horizontal stress. Cleveland’s defense is elite overall, but most of their early-drive damage comes from pressure and coverage—not from short-yardage red-zone denial. If San Francisco reaches the low red zone on their opening drive, Shanahan’s probability of dialing up multiple CMC touches increases sharply, especially with their heavy-motion goal-line sets that isolate linebackers and create cutback lanes. McCaffrey’s versatility—inside runs, perimeter tosses, leak routes, and angle concepts—gives him multiple pathways to the first score. His TD equity is highest early in the game before Cleveland’s front adjusts to formation tendencies and begins triggering downhill faster against the run. Given that San Francisco frequently scripts its most efficient drive of the game first, CMC maintains a strong statistical opening-drive scoring profile even in a difficult matchup.

Harold Fannin Jr. (Browns) +1685

Harold Fannin profiles as a legitimate first-touchdown candidate because of how cleanly his route usage aligns with Cleveland’s early-drive concepts and how San Francisco typically defends scripted openers. In Sanders’ first start, Fannin commanded a 30% target share and was used as the primary short/intermediate option on early downs—an area where Cleveland will likely lean again to keep Sanders in rhythm and mitigate SF’s pass rush. The 49ers’ Cover 3-heavy structure leaves seams and underneath pockets available before their linebackers fully settle into run-pass keys, creating windows in the first 10–12 scripted plays that Fannin is best positioned to exploit. Early drives also tend to feature heavier play-action usage, and Fannin’s ability to sell run-block before releasing into crossers or sit routes gives him a high-probability red-zone role when Cleveland reaches scoring range. With Njoku running fewer routes and Fannin operating as Sanders’ first read in several sequencing plays, his early-drive involvement creates a realistic pathway to the game’s opening touchdown—especially since TE targets are one of the more reliable ways to neutralize SF’s front in goal-to-go situations.

Parlay #1 (49ers) +305

Brock Purdy 'U' 201.5 Pass Yards

George Kittle 'U' 46.5 Receiving Yards

Christian McCaffery ATD

Parlay #2 (Browns) +310

Harold Fannin 'O' 3.5 Receptions

Quinshon Judkins ATD
Shedeur Sanders 'U' 27.5 Pass Attempts

QB Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence enters this matchup following a classic Trevor performance where he threw for 256 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, marking his fourth consecutive game with a pick. On the season, he has completed 220 of 368 passes (59.8%) for 2,407 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. His advanced stats shows a quarterback hindered by drops, boasting a 10.1% drop rate (highest in the league) by his pass catchers despite a 74.5% adjusted completion percentage. Tennessee allows the second-highest completion rate (69.9%) and third-highest yards per attempt (7.8), playing zone coverage at a 74.6% rate (mostly Cover 3). Lawrence has recorded 5+ rushing attempts in four straight games, with Jacksonville likely leaning on the run to close out what might be a competitive game. Combined with his 3.3% turnover-worthy throw rate, the play is to back the over on his rushing attempts while expecting another interception.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Carries (-105)

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
Etienne has reasserted himself as the clear lead back, out-touching Bhayshul Tuten 18-7 last week while posting 86 rushing yards. He has seen 18+ touches in four straight games. On the season, he has 169 carries for 815 yards (4.82 YPC) and 5 touchdowns, adding 24 catches for 160 yards. The matchup on the ground is favorable on paper. Tennessee allows 4.8 yards per carry (5th highest) and the 3rd most yards after contact per carry, which aligns perfectly with Etienne’s strength (10th in YACO/A). He also ranks 6th in carries inside the 10-yard line, facing a defense that allows the 3rd most touchdowns to running backs. However, with Jeffery Simmons back, the Titans' interior defense is stiffer than the season-long stats suggest. While his volume is secure, the lines may be inflated. The best play is to fade his receiving props, as the game plan likely focuses on grinding out yards on the ground.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

RB Bayshul Tuten
After briefly threatening a split backfield, Tuten was relegated to a change-of-pace role last week, managing just 7 carries for 17 yards. Despite the limited carries, his efficiency remains great; he leads all qualified running backs with a 61.2% success rate and averages 3.81 yards per carry on the season. While the Jaguars will likely lean on the run, Tuten’s volume could be there to clear his attempts line. Tuten will likely remain the change of pace, but there are plenty of ways he gets worked in enough here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 7.5 Carries (-120)

WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Thomas is expected to return from a multi-injury absence (wrist, shoulder, ankle). Before the injury, he posted 30 catches for 420 yards (14.0 YPR), playing out wide 76.3% of the time. He also boasts a 20.1% target share, 22.8% team yardage share, 4.60 yards after contact per reception, 23.9% 1st read rate, 72.7 passer rating when targeted. Tennessee’s defense struggles mightily against perimeter receivers, allowing the highest completion rate (72.8%) and catch rate (71.1%) to the position, along with a high 5.6% touchdown rate. Although there is risk regarding his health and rust, his lines are low enough to be worth taking the risk on. In a great matchup, this could be a get-right game for BTJ.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-125)

WR Jakobi Meyers
Meyers has proven to be a reliable target, catching 45 of 64 targets (70.3%) for 507 yards this season. Last week, he caught 4 passes for 50 yards and a score. With Brian Thomas Jr. returning, Parker Washington likely slides back to a limited slot role, solidifying Meyers as the WR2 in the offense. Meyers has played 72.5% of his snaps outside recently, which allows him to attack the same perimeter weakness in the Titans' defense that benefits Thomas. Tennessee’s Zone-heavy scheme fits Meyers' style (4.47 YAC/R), and he offers a safer floor than the hobbled Thomas. He is a strong hold for receptions and yardage in a consolidated passing attack.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-110)

TE Brenton Strange
Strange is coming off a breakout performance where he caught 5 passes for 93 yards, the second-highest single-game total for a Jaguar pass catcher this year. He has been hyper-efficient, catching 83.3% of his targets for 11.9 yards per reception. The matchup is tough for tight ends. Tennessee allows the 10th fewest targets and 16th fewest receptions to tight ends, having held elite options like Tyler Warren twice (4-53-0 and 3-38-0), Trey McBride (5-41-0), and Oronde Gadsden (5-68-0) in check. Given his recent volume and Lawrence’s reliance on him, there is value in taking the over on his receiving yards despite the tough defensive matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-120)

QB Cam Ward
Ward enters this game with a season line of 222 completions on 374 attempts (59.4%) for 2,210 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, alongside 27 rushes for 116 yards and a touchdown. His advanced metrics show a 5.91 yards per attempt (YPA), a 75.7 passer rating, and a troubling 10.3% sack rate amidst a 39.4% pressure rate. However, Ward has shown improvement since the coaching change, completing 64.5% of his passes (16th) for 6.4 yards per attempt (24th) since the exit Callahan. In his last game, he went 28 of 42 for 256 yards with a touchdown and no picks, while adding 6 carries for 37 yards and a score. The scrambling is a key - he has scrambled on 8.5% of dropbacks in the last two games compared to just 3.2% previously. He faces a Jacksonville pass funnel defense that sees 37.9 attempts per game (3rd most) and allows almost 19 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks. While Ward ranks 6th in attempts per game and his adjusted completion percentage is 72.7%, the Jaguars rank 2nd in interceptions forced (13). I think we continue to see Ward use his legs when he needs to. I also think it’s hard to see Ward not throwing a pick in this one.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 11.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (-110)

RB Tony Pollard
Pollard continues to struggle, posting 140 carries for 522 yards (3.7 YPC) and 2 touchdowns on the season, with 26 catches on 32 targets for 168 yards. His advanced rushing stats are underwhelming: 3.73 YPC, a 2.1% explosive run rate, a 41.4% success rate, and 2.28 yards after contact per attempt (YACO/A). Last week, he saw his snap share dip to 52.9%, resulting in just 11 carries for 20 yards and 4 catches for 21 yards. The matchup is rough. Jacksonville allows just 3.7 YPC (3rd lowest) and just 0.88 yards before contact per rush (4th lowest). Furthermore, the Jaguars face only 17.4 backfield runs per game (2nd fewest) - not surprising given the game script they continue to play in. Given the efficiency woes and the difficult defensive front, Pollard is a fade on rushing yards in what should be a more pass-heavy script.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 40.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Tyjae Spears
Spears serves as the 1B option in the backfield with 37 carries for 159 yards (4.3 YPC) and 1 touchdown, plus 22 catches on 24 targets for 148 yards. He played 41.2% of the snaps last week, recording 3 carries for 4 yards and 4 catches for 21 yards. While his rushing volume has been low (7 carries between each of the last two games), his advanced metrics show a 4.00 YPC average and a 2.7% explosive run rate. He is much more successful running against Zone coverage (50.0% success rate) than Man/Gap (22.2%). However, with the rushing volume floor so low, the best look is to back his receptions and fade his rushing attempts.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-120)
‘U’ 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)

WR Elic Ayomanor
With Calvin Ridley out for the season, Ayomanor is the “top” outside receiver, though he missed last week with a hamstring injury. On the season, he has caught 28 of 56 targets (50.0%) for 334 yards and 2 touchdowns, lining up out wide 82.5% of the time. His advanced profile includes a 16.9% target share, 17.1% of team yards, 11.93 yards per reception (YPR), 3.43 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/R), and a 22.2% first-read share. The matchup is good: Jacksonville allows the 2nd most receiving yards to outside receivers (130.6 per game), along with the 13th highest catch rate (64.6%) and 8th highest passer rating (103.4). However, his availability and inconsistency (73.1 passer rating when targeted) make him a guy I can’t back even in a good matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-120)

WR Chimere Dike
Dike operates primarily from the slot (66.9%) and has a season line of 28 catches on 43 targets (65.1%) for 252 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is coming off a strong performance with 5 catches for 44 yards and a touchdown (plus a punt return score). His advanced stats include an 11.0% target share, 11.4% of team yards, 9.00 YPR, and a solid 5.18 YAC/R, generating a 90.7 passer rating when targeted. Despite the momentum, the matchup is difficult - the defense allows a league-low 5.1 yards per target to slot receivers. While he may see volume due to injuries elsewhere, this is not the matchup I want to back him, making him a fade for yardage.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
Okonkwo is questionable with a foot injury but should be active. He has caught 35 of 46 targets (76.0%) for 377 yards this season. Last week, he caught 3 passes for 40 yards. He splits his time across the formation (40.4% inline, 44.9% slot, 13.8% wide) and averages 10.8 yards per reception with 5.7 yards after the catch per reception and a 5.4 aDOT. Jacksonville struggles against tight ends, allowing the 2nd most targets (9.18), 3rd most receptions (6.73), 4th most yards (70.8), and tied for the 2nd most touchdowns (7) per game. Even splitting routes with Helm, Okonkwo continues to have some low lines to take advantage of. I’ll back his overs in this one.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

I really liked what I saw out of this TEN offense last week and their defense has been underrated at full health. We have seen Cam Ward get more comfortable and now he's willing to use his legs. The Jags continue to skate by thanks to a unsustainble turover ratio. Trevor gets this team in too much trouble to lay almost a full TD on the road in a divisional game.

Best Bet TEN Titans +6.5 -115
Lean Over 41.5 -110
Score Prediction Jaguars 24 Titans 21

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Jaguars): Travis Etienne +100
TEN has allowed the 2nd most rushing touchdowns this season (16) and we are more likely to find the Jags in a positive game script than a negative one. He's had 18+ touches each of the last four weeks and Etienne's strengths matchup well here. Tennessee allows 4.8 yards per carry (5th highest) and the 3rd most yards after contact per carry, which aligns perfectly with Etienne’s strength (10th in YACO/A).

Longshot (Titans): Gunnar Helm +450
Helm doesn't see the field as much as I'd like, but it's apparent that Cam 0si looking for him when he's out there. Helm has 4 redzone targets, which is third best of the pass catchers on this roster. Jacksonville struggles against tight ends, allowing the 2nd most targets (9.18), 3rd most receptions (6.73), 4th most yards (70.8), and tied for the 2nd most touchdowns (7) per game. A nice spot for the rookie to rookie connection.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Jaguars): Brenton Strange +1600
Strange looked legit good last week in his breakout performance off of his IR stint. He moves like a wide receiver in a tight end's body. We saw him score next week and it wouldn't surprsie me if he becomes one of the top go-to options in this offense.

Longshot (Titans): Chig Okonkwo +2200
Chig doesn't have a touchdown on the season, but we've discussed the matchup in the Helm TD write-up. Obviously the Titans have limited options with no Ridley and Ayomanor banged up. What I like about this is they are starting to get Chig down the field more, which is where he can really make a difference. A long TD is not out of the question to kick this off.

Parlay #1 (Jaguars): +849

Travis Etienne 60+ Rush Yards

Brenton Strange 3+ Receptions

Trevor Lawrence 25+ Rushing Yards

Parlay #2 (Titans): +260

Cam Ward 15+ Rushing Yards

TEN Titans +7.5

Cam Ward 1+ Passing TD's

QB C.J. Stroud
Stroud just got cleared to play from the concussion protocol this Friday. On the season, Stroud has completed 161 of 242 passes (66.5%) for 1,702 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, adding 189 yards on 29 carries. The advanced metrics paint a clear picture of how he struggles under pressure. When kept in a clean pocket, Stroud ranks 14th with a 106.8 passer rating, completing 72.1% of his passes for 7.7 yards per attempt. Under pressure, his passer rating sank to 60.4 (24th) with a 52.9% completion rate. Fortunately for Houston, the Colts rank 22nd in pressure rate (33.7%), a number that drops even further without DeForest Buckner (31.4%). While Indianapolis plays man coverage at the 8th highest rate (30.4%), their inability to generate consistent pressure should allow Stroud to operate fairly comfortably. With the Texans likely needing to throw to stay competitive, Stroud is in a favorable spot to at least throw plenty in this one.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 33.5 Passing Attempts (-110)

RB Woody Marks
Marks has taken over the backfield, handling 72.7%, 82.6%, and 72.7% of the touches over the last three games. His season line sits at 115 carries for 422 yards (3.67 yards per carry) and 2 touchdowns, plus 17 catches for 185 yards. Despite the volume, efficiency is a concern; Marks holds a 33% success rate (30th) and is stuffed for no gain or loss on ~23% of runs (31st), averaging just 0.97 yards before contact behind a struggling line. Luckily, Chubb hasn’t looked any better. He faces a Colts defense allowing 3.9 yards per carry (12th lowest), though they have surrendered six rushing touchdowns in their last four games. The betting value here lies in the passing game. Although Marks has only four catches in his last four games, Stroud’s return should help, as he targets running backs more frequently than Mills. With Nick Chubb out of the way mostly (his rushing line is now under 20 yards), I like Marks to stay on the field in what could be a passing-heavy game script.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 11.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Nico Collins
Collins is the clear alpha with a 24.1% target share and 30.8% of the team's receiving yards, tallying 697 yards and 4 touchdowns on the season. However, this matchup presents a challenge. Since acquiring Sauce Gardner, the Colts have leaned heavily into man coverage (48% and 39% in recent weeks). Collins sees his efficiency drop from 2.07 yards per route run against zone to 1.81 against man. While Indianapolis allows the 3rd most receptions per game to wideouts, the presence of Gardner and Ward makes this a tougher spot. Collins still managed 2.29 yards per route last week despite a low volume day, but with the Colts likely using their elite corners to limit Houston's top weapon, it’s tough to back a productive day.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 5.5 Receptions (-145)

WR Jayden Higgins
Higgins has been a reliable contributor, posting at least 7 targets in three straight games and scoring a touchdown in three of his last five. He has 27 catches for 294 yards and 4 touchdowns this season. However, Higgins plays out wide 80.2% of the time, meaning he will see the highest frequency of Sauce Gardner and Ward on the perimeter. Unlike Collins, who moves into the slot 20.7% of the time, Higgins mostly plays outside. Despite a solid 99.7 passer rating when targeted and 10.89 yards per reception, this does not look like a spot to back Higgins.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Dalton Schultz
Schultz is coming off a disappointing 1-catch, 8-yard performance, but we could be in for a bounce-back this week. He has recorded 5 or more receptions in seven of his past nine games and ranks 9th among tight ends in target rate. On the season, he has caught 52 of 70 targets (74.3%) for 497 yards. The matchup is great - Indianapolis allows the 4th most targets (8.82), 5th most receptions (6.36), and 2nd most yards (72.2) per game to tight ends. The Colts have also allowed the 3rd most yards per coverage snap to the position. With the wide receivers dealing with elite corners on the outside, Stroud will likely funnel volume to the middle of the field. Schultz is a prime target for overs in this one.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

QB Daniel Jones
Jones enters this game not fully healthy, as he attempts to play through a fractured fibula. On paper, his season has been good: 242 completions on 350 attempts (69.1% completion rate) for 2,840 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, plus 43 carries for 159 yards and 5 scores. His advanced metrics remain strong, boasting an 8.34 yards per attempt (YPA), a 101.6 passer rating, and a 69.9% completion rate among qualifiers, alongside a 77.4% adjusted completion percentage and 77.1% first-read rate. However, he faces a tough matchup against the best defense in the league - possible on one leg. Houston ranks second in the NFL with a 41.8% pressure rate and just recorded 8 sacks against Josh Allen. Jones holds a 33.2% pressure rate and a 58% sack percentage this season; with a bad leg, escaping that pressure may be nearly impossible. Houston’s defense allows the third-lowest completion rate (59.1%), second-lowest yards per attempt (6.2), and a stifling 3% touchdown rate. Facing a Cover 3 heavy (76.8%) zone scheme that limits deep shots, and dealing with a significant injury, Jones is a clear fade. I do think he tries to throw a lot, so that is the one over I’ll back.

 Suggested Picks
‘O’ 30.5 Passing Attempts (-115)
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (-125)

RB Jonathan Taylor
Taylor is having a monster season, leading the league with 1,197 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on 205 carries, while adding 32 catches for 268 yards. His efficiency is elite, ranking 2nd with 5.84 yards per carry (YPC) and 5th with a 7.8% explosive run rate, supported by a 57.1% success rate and 2.77 yards after contact per attempt. However, he runs into a defensive wall this week. Houston allows just 3.8 YPC to running backs (7th lowest) and contacts runners early, allowing only 0.92 yards before contact (7th lowest). The Texans surrender just 73.5 rushing yards per game to backfields (5th lowest) and 4.4 yards per touch (9th lowest). James Cook is the only back to crack 100 yards against them this year. While Houston has allowed 9 rushing touchdowns (20th), the yardage floor is lower than usual. Despite his superstar status, this is a spot to fade his rushing yardage over.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 89.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman has been efficient but volume-dependent, catching 59 of 77 targets (76.6%) for 607 yards and 7 touchdowns. He enters this game having only reached 60 yards four times this season. His advanced profile includes a 21.4% target share, 21.3% of team yards, 10.29 yards per reception (YPR), and 3.64 yards after the catch per reception. He splits his time between being out wide (71.7%) and the slot (27.0%). The slot usage could be key here, as Houston’s outside coverage is elite - led by Stingley. The Texans allow 42.9% of wide receiver receptions to come from the slot (5th highest), but they limit the damage, allowing only a 1.4% touchdown rate to those receivers (3rd lowest). With Jones banged up and a tough matchup, I’m not looking to back him here.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Alec Pierce
Pierce is the team's deep threat, averaging a massive 21.07 yards per reception on 29 catches for 585 yards. He plays almost exclusively out wide (87.9%) and commands 25.8% of the team's air yards. However, this is arguably the worst matchup in the league for his skill set. Houston allows a league-low 53% catch rate to outside receivers, holding them to 7.0 yards per target (3rd lowest) and just 73.5 yards per game (3rd lowest). Furthermore, on throws of 20+ yards, Houston allows just a 26.8% catch rate (3rd lowest). Despite a decent target share (19.7%) and first-read rate (22.2%), Pierce is unlikely to find success against a secondary that erases perimeter deep threats. He is a fade this week, but we’ll look to back him in better matchups.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Tyler Warren
Warren has been a revelation as a rookie, catching 55 of 74 targets (73.6%) for 662 yards and 3 touchdowns. They move him all over, lining up inline (40.5%), in the slot (43.2%), and out wide (12.5%), with strong efficiency metrics including 12.0 yards per reception, 7.7 yards after the catch per reception, and a 119.6 passer rating when targeted. Unfortunately, he faces a Houston defense that is stingy against tight ends across the board. They allow the 6th fewest targets (5.91), 6th fewest receptions (4.27), and 6th fewest yards (40.3) to the position per game, along with a low 4.6% touchdown rate. With his quarterback compromised and the defense excelling at limiting his position, Warren is a fade, even if volume suggests a somewhat safe floor.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

We have seen the Colts offense regress when the run game isn't carrying this offense. I'm expecting another tough week for Taylor on the ground facing the best defense in the league. I think Stroud and this offense can do enough to hang around, especially given IND's inability to create pressure. I think the upset is well in play here.

Best Bet Texans +3.5 (-110)
Lean Texans ML (+160)
Score Prediction Houston 23 Colts 20

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Texans): Nico Collins +140
Despite a tough matchup, Nico dominates the target share. I think they'll move him around enough to make an impact, especially in the redzone. Collins has 14 redzone targets, with the next highest at half of that. AND Nico missed a game! He's the type that could score in close of take one to the house.

Longshot (Colts): Josh Downs +320
Where is HOU most suceptible? THE SLOT. Downs plays there the most and has been a TD target all season. He has 3 TD's in 3 of his last 5 games. He trails Pittman by only one redzone target! That's despite only playing on three wide receivers sets. A nice value here.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Colts): Jonathan Taylor +300
This is not a good matchup for Taylor in terms of yardage, but is for touchdowns.  Houston allows just 3.8 YPC to running backs (7th lowest) and contacts runners early, allowing only 0.92 yards before contact (7th lowest). However, Houston has allowed 9 rushing touchdowns. We will likely get an early and often dose of Taylor so even in a underwhelming day we could see an early score.

Longshot (Texans): Dalton Schultz +1500
The matchup is great - Indianapolis allows the 4th most targets (8.82), 5th most receptions (6.36), and 2nd most yards (72.2) per game to tight ends. The Colts have also allowed the 3rd most yards per coverage snap to the position. With Sauce and Ward holding down the outside options, we may see Stroud focus more in the middle of the field where Schultz works.

Parlay #1 (Texans): +349

HOU Texans ML

Dalton Schultz 40+ Receiving Yards

C.J. Stroud 200+ Pass Yards

Parlay #2 (Colts): +407

Michael Pittman under 42.5 Rec Yards

Tyler Warren under 50.5 Rec Yards

IND Colts under 24.5 Points

QB Tyler Shough

Tyler Shough led the Saints to a victory over the Panthers in Week 10, but he failed to keep the momentum going out of their bye. He completed 30-43 for 243 scoreless yards (5.7 YPA) and 1 INT in a Week 12, home loss to Atlanta. I raised concerns prior to last Sunday's game with Tyler Shough's issues, albeit within a small sample size, holding up under pressure. That proved to be the case once again vs the Falcons. You've heard me say this before and you'll hear me say it again, but I hold true to the montra that "Once is a fluke, twice is a trend and three times is a problem." Well, we've officially entered the problem stage for Shough when teams are forcing his hand. He has completed just 39.4% of his passes (13 of 33) for a lowly 5.0 YPA, to go along with 10 sacks when pressured. On the contrary, when operating with a clean pocket he has completed 74.7% of his passes for 7.3 YPA. Shough and the Saints will now head down south to face a Miami defense who owns the 10th highest pressure rate over its last 5 games (37.3%). When the Dolphins play at home this number increases to 38.9%, and since the trade of Jaelan Phillips it now sits at 39.2%. MIA leans on Cover-2 (28.4%) and Cover-3 (26.7%) for just over half of their defensive snaps. Once again, we are working under a small sample size here, but Shough is averaging only 6.3 YPA to go with a 72.3 passer rating in 54 dropbacks against these specific coverages. Furthermore, when working inside this window, the Dolphins are giving up the 12th fewest passing YPG (219.5) to opposing QBs. With this game being played on the road, I have continued concerns with Shough's inability to perform with any degree of regularity when the defense is bearing down on him. Since trading away Jaelan Phillips to Philadelphia, Miami's defense has forced an interception in back-to-back games against QB's Josh Allen and Marcus Mariota. We are likely to see more of Taysom Hill this Sunday, but it doesn't mean that Tyler Shough isn't going to make a few bad decisions when throwing the football. He's been picked off once in 3 of his 4 games this season, and we see this time and time out with new quarterbacks. It's not a knock on Tyler Shough at all, it's just a product of learnign to play the most difficult position not only in football, but in all of sports.

Suggested Bet:

Tyler Shough 1+ Interceptions (-123)

RB Devin Neal

With Alvin Kamara  (knee) likely out for a minimum of three weeks, Devin Neal provides solid value as a healthy RB who is set up to have an expansive workload against a very fortuitous schedule going forward. The numbers didn't back it up, but Neal was on the field for 90% of snaps after Kamara exited Sunday's games. Now, we know Taysom Hill is going to see some action out of the backfield, but for at least this week anyway, I think Hill's volume will be in addition to Neal's, rather than cutting into his workload. The biggest concern for Devin Neal will be his usage or lack thereof inside the 10-yard line. Hill gobbled up all 3 RB touches near the goal line, and didn't even leave Neal with so much as a single table scrap. For the purpose of betting, Devin Neal has great value this Sunday as a pass-catching RB. He's already developed rapport on the field with QB Tyler Shough, who has targeted Neal 10 times over the past two games. Last Sunday, Neal hauled in 5 of 7 targets for 43 yards, which included a 9.4% route share out of the slot. This spot provides particular matchup appeal, given that he will be going up against a Dolphins defense that has been suspect all season to opposing pass-catching RBs. Miami is allowing the 10th most receptions (4.9) and 8th most receiving YPG (38.1) to opposing RBs. This is one of the best props on the board in all of Week 13 as far as I'm concerned.

Suggested Bet:

Devin Neal o18.5 Rec Yards (-118)

Devin Neal 25+ ALT Rec Yards (+141)

Devin Neal 40+ ALT Rec Yards (+416)

WR Chris Olave

Chris Olave (back) returned to practice on Friday and is trending towards playing in Week 13 at Miami. He had 9 receptions for 70 yards last week vs ATL on a team-leading 13 targets. Olave has been the lone source of consistency for the Saints this season. He's grabbed 5+ balls in 9 of 11 games, while collecting at least 50 yards or more in all but one game in '25. Since New Orleans parted ways with Rashid Shaheed, the stock inside Olave's portfolio has been nothing short of bullish. He's posted a 31% target share with 53% and 50% of the air yards in his 2 games since the trade of Shaheed. While this appears to be a good matchup on the surface, there are some underlying concerns facing Olave in Sunday's matchup at Miami. First and foremost, it's only taken 4 games to expose Tyler Shough's inability to yield positive results when he's forced to operate outside of a clean pocket. I've outlined the issues surrounding this in my above write up of the Saints quarterback, but in short, when Shough is required to improvise the results have been abysmal. When you couple this with the fact that the Dolphins have the NFL's 10th highest pressure rate over the last 5 weeks (37.3%), it does not forecast a pretty picture of what's potentially ahead. Next, under the umbrella Miami's primary defensive coverages of Cover-2 (28.4%) and Cover-3 (26.7%), the Dolphins are allowing the 2nd fewest receiving YPG (77.5) and the 7th lowest YPRR (1.79) to receivers aligned out wide. Thirdly, MIA has been shredded by opposing tight ends, as well as pass-catching running backs, and both are strengths New Orleans brings into this game. They also just happen to be the two most common "safety net" targets for inexperienced QBs and/or QBs under pressure. Lastly, the Dolphins are a blitz-heavy team, who send extra defenders on exactly one-third of its defensive snaps (3rd most in NFL). In the past 2 games when Tyler Shough has been blitzed, Olave is averaging just 5.2 YPT. 

Suggested Bet:

Chris Olave u5.5 Receptions (+105)

TE Juwan Johnson

One of the key factors to my suggested bet for Chris Olave to go "under" on his receptions total is directly related to Miami's continued problems defending the opponents' TE position, so this provides the perfect segue to Juwan Johnson. The Saints tight end caught 6 of 7 targets for 46 yards in week 12. While his 16.5% target share in Tyler Shough's three starts is nothing to write home about, Johnson's matchup at Miami provides major upside. The TE position has been targeted at a 28% rate against the Dolphins (3rd highest), where they are allowing 8.8 YPT (3rd most) to go with an 8.2% TD rate (4th highest). This is a great spot for Johnson to reach a higher ceiling as a safety blanket for Shough against a Dolphins secondary that is riddled with injuries. As it is, they are already surrendering the 5th most receiving YPG to opposing TEs (69.1). 

Suggested Bet:

Juwan Johnson o44.5 Rec Yards (-111)

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua is averaging 193 passing yards per game, 6.80 YPA, a 68.3% completion rate and an average depth of target of 6.8 yards. He’s thrown 17 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. He’ll face a Saints defense that ranks 10^th worst in EPA/Pass but has allowed the 9^th fewest passing yards per game (192.5). The Saints blitz at the T-6^th highest rate (32.2%) but have the 8^th lowest pressure rate (34.2%). When blitzed, Tua averages 5.94 YPA, a 58.2% completion rate and an aDOT of 7.8 yards. When not pressured, Tua averages 750 YPA, a 73.6% completion rate and a 6.6 yard average depth of target. The Saints run single-high at the 7^th highest rate (57.8%). Tua averages 6.86 YPA, a 60% completion rate and an aDOT of 7.6 yards. The Dolphins are playing at home and are 5.5-point favorites with a low 41.5 implied total. Coming off the bye and the likely return of Waller, I think Tua could look better than expected in a plus matchup. However, the Dolphins offense has been conservative, with the 4^th lowest pass rate over expected. The Saints are about neutral when it comes to pass vs run tendencies as a defense.

Suggested Pick:

Over 209.5 Passing Yards (-111)

RB De’Von Achane

Achane averages 81.8 rushing yards per game on 5.49 YPC. He’s first amongst qualified RBs in explosive rush rate at 9.8%. Achane has dominated in last 2 weeks prior to the bye, running for 174 and 120 yards. He also had 51 and 45 receiving yards to add onto that. The Dolphins are 5.5-point home favorites and have the 4^th lowest pass rate over expected this season, favorable game script. He’ll face a Saints defense that surprisingly ranks 7^th best in EPA/Rush, but they do allow the 12^th most rushing yards per game (123.5). The Saints allow the 5^th fewest YPC against man/gap run concepts (3.74) but the 10^th most YPC to zone concept (4.38). Achane has been more effective in man/gap, averaging 7.21 YPC and a 51.6% success rate. However, it only accounts for 37.8% of his attempts. From a receiving matchup, the Saints are allowing the 6^th fewest receiving yards and the 4^th fewest receptions to RB. Achane’s full game lines feel efficient, but I’ll grab his 1Q lines, a prop he’s hit in 7 of L8 games.

Suggested Pick:

Over 20.5 1Q Rushing Yards (-112)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Prior to Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, Waddle averaged 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.75 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 25.6% 1^st-read rate. In the 7 games without Tyreek, Waddle is averaging 76.7 receiving yards per game, 3.16 YPRR, 29% TPRR and a 31.3% 1^st-read rate. Waddle has lined up out wide on 77.1% of his routes since Tyreek went down. He’ll face a Saints defense that ranks 10^th worst in EPA/Pass but has allowed the 9^th fewest receiving yards per game (192.5). The Saints allow the T-7^th most YPRR to wide alignment (2.18). The Saints blitz at the T-6^th highest rate (32.2%) but have the 8^th lowest pressure rate (34.2%). When blitzed, Waddle leads the team in receiving, averaging 2.30 YPRR, 22% TPRR and has a 1^st-read rate of 31.8%. When Tua is not pressured, Waddle averages 3.38 YPRR and 32% TPRR. The Saints run single-high at the 7^th highest rate (57.8%). Waddle averages 3.26 YPRR and 32% TPRR against single-high. That compares to 2.05 YPRR and 20% TPRR against two-high.

Suggested Pick:

Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Malik Washington

In the 7 games post Tyreek Hill’s season ending injury, Washington has run a route on 62.1% of dropbacks. He’s averaging 26.7 receiving yards per game, 1.33 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He has lined up in the slot on 48.9% of his routes and out wide on 44.7%. He’ll face a Saints defense that ranks 10^th worst in EPA/Pass but has allowed the 9^th fewest receiving yards per game (192.5). The Saints have allowed the 10^th fewest YPRR (1.65) and the 2^nd fewest receiving yards per game (43.3) to slot alignment. Waller may return here, which could push Malik down the target share pecking order. The Saints blitz at the T-6^th highest rate (32.2%) but have the 8^th lowest pressure rate (34.2%). When blitzed, Malik has just 29 receiving yards on the season and has a 1^st-read rate of 11.4%. When Tua is not pressured, Malik averages 1.10 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. The Saints run single-high at the 7^th highest rate (57.8%). Malik averages 1.29 YPRR and 21% TPRR against single-high. That compares to 0.81 YPRR and 19% TPRR against two-high.

Suggested Pick:

Under 3.5 Receptions (-155)

TE Darren Waller

Waller has been sidelined since week 7 with a pec injury, but coach Mike McDaniel’s said he was optimistic he’d return this week against the Saints. If he returns, he could be eased into action. In 3 healthy games, Waller has 117 total receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. He’s averaging 1.86 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. He’s ran a route on 61.2% of drop backs and has an average depth of target of 11.8 yards. He’ll face a Saints defense that ranks 10^th worst in EPA/Pass but has allowed the 9^th fewest receiving yards per game (192.5). The Saints are middle of the pack when it comes specifically to receiving against TEs. The Saints blitz at the T-6^th highest rate (32.2%) but have the 8^th lowest pressure rate (34.2%). Waller has just 8 receiving yards on the season against the blitz (small sample size) and has a 1^st-read rate of 11.8%. When Tua is not pressured, Waller averages 2.40 YRPR and 23% TPRR. The Saints run single-high at the 7^th highest rate (57.8%). Waller has just 6 receiving yards against single-high. Waller averages 2.85 YPRR and 26% TPRR against two-high, accounting for pretty much all his production in a small sample size.

Suggested Pick:

No Lines Up

These teams are playing for nothing. Well both coaches are trying to save their jobs. The Dolphins have had 2 really impressive wins as for the Saints there has not been much to talk about. On the road this year they are 1-4 losing by 31,12,12,24. I don't trust either offense so my best bet is the under 

Best Bet Under 41.5 -110
Lean Dolphins -5.5 -110
Score Prediction Saints 13 Dolphins 23

Anytime TD

Best Play (Saints):  Taysom Hill +170

Jaylen Waddle (+120)

5 touchdowns this season and he’s been the clear WR1 since the season ending Tyreek Hill injury. He’s averaging 3.16 YPRR and 29% TPRR. The Saints defense is susceptible and I like Waddle to find the end zone.

First Touchdown

Longshot (Saints):  Juwan Johnson  +1500

DeVon Achane (+400)

Achane has been incredible and has 174 and 120 rushing yards in the past 2 weeks. He’s also a threat in the passing game, with 51 and 45 receiving yards last 2. Achane has 2 1Q touchdowns this season and has scored in 64% overall. Pound the rock early!

Parlay #1 (Saints) +550

Devin Neal o18.5 Rec Yards
Chris Olave u5.5 Receptions
Juwan Johnson 40+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #1 (Dolphins) +404

DeVon Achane Over 20.5 1Q Rushing Yards
Malik Washington Under 3.5 Receptions
Tua Tagovailoa 200+ Passing Yards

QB Kirk Cousins

If the Jets get their first interception of the season, so be it.

Suggested Bet:

Kirk Cousins u0.5 Interceptions (-144)

RB Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson's production in the pass-catching game has encountered some regression with Kirk Cousins under center. Meanwhile, the NY Jets are allowing an average of just 3.3 receptions per game (3rd fewest in NFL) out of the backfield to opposing RBs. So why am I attacking Robinson's over 3.5 reception prop in Week 13. The answer is a complicated, but once I break it down I think you will draw the same conclusion as I have. Bijan has failed to reach this number in both of his games alongside Kirk Cousins, but last week Atlanta was up two scores at the half and Robinson and Allgeier ran the ball a combined 26 times, compared to only 23 pass attempts for Cousins. Sunday's game against the Jets shoud be a close one, hence the 2.5 point spread, and I actually like New York to pull off the upset, given that Tyrod Taylor has provided the Jets passing offense with something that at least resembles a heartbeat. On the contrary, the Falcons defense has looked awful during the month of November, and everything that's come out of the inner coaching circles at NY suggests that the Jets are planning to use this as an opportunity to take advantage of a struggling ATL defense, especially with Breece Hall on the ground. With the likelihood of this holding true, it will force the Falcons into a close game where they won't have the luxury of targeting Drake London deep downfield in order to bail out the offense. Now, back to the Jets defense, where opposing teams have recently been targeting their RBs in the pass-catching game. If you peel the layers back on the onion you will see that each of the starting running backs New York has faced have all cleared their given reception total over the L4 Sunday's. This trends all the way back to week 9, where Chase Brown (CIN) hauled in 3-32-1. From there, Quinshon Judkins (CLE) posted 2-10-0, TreVeyon Henderson (NE) had 5-31-1 and Derrick Henry (BAL) recorded 2-24-0. If the Jets pull off what would be labeled only as a minor upset, that would certainly be beneficial for this play as Bijan has eclipsed this line of 3.5 receptions in 5 of 7 games the Falcons have lost this season.

Suggested Bet

Bijan Robinson o3.5 Receptions (-144)

WR Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney recorded a season-high 74 receiving yards last Sunday, however this came on just 3 receptions, one of which was a 49-yard TD strike from QB Kirk Cousins. Any hope of Darnell Mooney raising his volume with Drake London sidelined was squashed as the Falcons WR saw only a 15% target share. In his other start with Cousins under center, Mooney was targeted on just 13.3% of his dropbacks. He's brought in more than 3 receptions just once in 9 games this year, and despite a similarly solid matchup on Sunday against the NYJ, we cant't rely on, nor chase Mooney for a TD bomb to bail us out, especially considering last week marked his first time finding the end zone in '25. And it's a shame too, because the trading away of Sauce Gardner has since yielded strong performances from Jamar Chase (12-91-0), Jerry Jeudy (6-78-1), Stefon Diggs (9-105-0) and Zay Flowers (5-58-0). But by now, you've probably already come to the same conclusion I have, and that is comparing Darnell Mooney to any of the aforementioned receivers is insulting. To be completely transparent, I want nothing more than to target Mooney in this spot, especially when I know ahead of time that he's going up against a Jets defense who plays man-coverage at a 30.2% clip (8th highest rate in NFL) and Mooney has been targeted on 24% of his routes vs man, as oppposed to 15% against zone. I just can't pull the trigger on a guy who has done nothing but come up empty week after week. At the same time, there's no margin for error on the other side of the line, so I have no other than to pass. However, at least I can put my head on the pillow knowing I left no stone unturned.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

TE Kyle Pitts

The Falcons TE pulled down 2 of 5 targets for a total of 25 yards in week 12. While these results are a far cry from what I had pictured in my mind for Pitts, he did pace all Atlanta receivers with a 25% target share, and was on the field for every single one of Kirk Cousins dropbacks. I'm not falling into the same trap as I did last week, especially considering the Jets are allowing significantly lower numbers than New Orleans in YPG and receptions allowed per game to opposing TEs. It's easy to get caught up looking into matchups, data, etc...within a given position, so let me provide you with a critical reminder that we are operating under Kirk Cousins at quarterback this Sunday. and the books have him hovering around 188.5 passing yards. He's completed passes to 7 different receivers in each of his L2 starts in place of the injured, Michael Penix. I just don't see Kyle Pitts accounting for the necessary 23.6% chunk of the Falcons required passing output with Bijan Robinson and yes, even Darnell Mooney also on the field. The Jets have yet to allow a single TE to reach 50+ yards, and they are allowing the 7th fewest receiving YPG to opposing tight ends (42.7) this season. The cherry on top here is that Kyle Pitts is averaging just 37.4 receiving YPG when paired with Kirk Cousins across 18 career games, where he's cleared this number just 7 times, and let's not forget Cousins is working with a nearly dead arm at this stage in his career. 

Suggested Bet:

Kyle Pitts u44.5 Rec Yards (-114)

QB Tyrod Taylor

In Taylor’s 2 starts this season, he’s averaging 209.5 passing yards per game, 6.55 YPA and a 67.2% completion rate. He’s thrown 3 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. He’s ran 13 times for a total of 67 rushing yards in those 2 starts. He’ll face a Falcons defense that ranks 10^th in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 8^th fewest passing yards per game (190.4). The Falcons blitz at the 2^nd highest rate in the league (40.6%). They generate pressure at the 6^th highest rate (41.5%). Taylor has scrambled on 16 of 66 dropbacks that he’s been pressured (24.2%) compared to 0 scrambles on 59 dropbacks where he hasn’t been pressured. The Falcons allow the 9^th most rushing yards per game to QB. When Tyrod has played 70%+ of snaps, he’s over his 23.5 rushing yards line in 8 of his last 10 games. The Falcons run the highest rate of single-high in the NFL (64.3%). Tyrod averages 6.40 YPA, a 63.6% completion rate and a 9.4-yard aDOT against single-high. That compares to 5.93 YPA, a 59.5% completion rate and a 8.9-yard aDOT against two-high.

Suggested Pick:

Over 199.5 Pass + Rushing Yards (-130)

Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

RB Breece Hall

Breece Hall averages 69.6 rushing yards per game, 4.56 YPC and is 2^nd in the league in explosive rush rate amongst qualified RBs at 8.9%. The Jets are the most run heavy team in the NFL, leading the league in run rate over expected. They remained run first last week with Tyrod at QB with a -6.6% pass rate over expected. He’ll face a Falcons defense that ranks 6^th worst in EPA/Rush and allows the 7^th most rushing yards per game (133.1). The Falcons allow the 7^th most YPC (4.97) and the 3^rd highest success rate (59.7%) to man/gap concept runs. That compares to the 7^th fewest YPC (3.75) but the 11^th highest success rate (50%) to zone concept. Breece is primarily a zone runner, accounting for 73.2% of his attempts, so a bearish schematic matchup. After Isaiah Davis started taking some work from Breece in the passing game, Breece has more routes than him by a wide margin in back-to-back weeks (48.5% and 52.9% route participation rates). Breece caught 4 of 4 targets for 75 yards last week with Tyrod at QB. In Tyrod’s previous start, Breece caught 4 of 6 targets for 31 yards against the Bucs. The Falcons allow the 10^th most receiving yards and the 11^th most receptions to RB. Breece’s rushing props feel correctly priced, but I like the receiving angle.

Suggested Pick:

Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR John Metchie, Adonai Mitchell

Last week with Tyrod at QB and Garrett Wilson out with an injury, Metchie led the team in receiving, catching 6 of 7 targets for 65 yards. Adonai Mitchell was 2^nd, catching 2 of 7 targets for 42 yards. Lazard, Williams and Smith split time as the WR3. Metchie ran 66.7% of his routes from outside, while AD Mitchell ran 84.6% out wide. They’ll face a Falcons defense allowing the 12^th fewest YPRR (1.88) to wide alignment and the 15^th fewest to the slot (1.77). Metchie operated more as the short yardage target, with an average depth of target of 4.4 yards. That compares to 25.6 yards for Adonai Mitchell. Only 3 of Mitchell’s 7 targets were catchable. The Falcons are allowing the 6^th fewest receiving yards per game on targets 20+ yards down field (34.2 YPG). They allow the 10^th fewest receiving yards per game on targets less than 10 yards down field (114.7). The Falcons run the highest rate of single-high in the NFL (64.3%). In small sample sizes, Mitchell averages 1.73 YPRR and 40% TPRR against single-high. Metchie averages 1.82 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes as a member of the Jets. Although the matchup isn’t that enticing, I still think there’s value on Adonai with the volume and talent he possesses. He just needs to start coming down with the ball.

Suggested Pick:

AD Mitchell Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Mason Taylor

On the season, Mason Taylor is averaging 27.0 receiving yards per game, 1.05 YPRR, and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. Taylor caught 3 of 5 targets for 21 yards with Tyrod Taylor at QB last week. He’ll face a Falcons defense allowing the 4^th fewest receiving yards and 2^nd fewest receptions to TE. In Tyrod Taylor’s first start in week 3 against the Bucs, he caught 4 of 6 targets for 18 yards. His season-long average depth of target is just 5.6 yards. The Falcons run the highest rate of single-high in the NFL (64.3%). Taylor averages 1.01 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes against single-high. Not much upside here and I think Tyrod looks Adonai and Metchie’s direction more than him as the Falcons have been brutal against opposing TEs.

Suggested Pick:

Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Jets are the Jets and it's hard to pick them to win anything. The Falcons have had a really disappointing season.. Bad offensive game is coming our way. Give me the under and a coin flip pick em game.

Best Bet Under 40.5 -155
Lean Jets +3.5 -110
Score Prediction Falcons 20 Jets 17

Anytime TD

Best Play (Falcons):  Tyler Algeier +210

Tyler Algeier has outscored Bijan Robinson 7 to 6 this season, and when you narrow this down to only the rushing game, Algeier has put an even bigger gap between he and Bijan, outscoring his running mate to the tune of 7 to 4 on the ground. Robinson enters Sunday's game with odds of -165 to score an Anytime TD, while Tyler Algeier comes in with drastically less odds of +210. This is simply a matter of comparing the production between both players, and taking advantage of the spot which provides us with the most value. 

First TD Scorer

Longshot (Falcons):  Kyle Pitts +950

Kyle Pitts has found the end zone just one time this season, but he's most likely not going to get a better matchup to post his second TD than the one he has in front of him in week 13. The Jets have allowed an 8.9% TD-rate (2nd) to go with 7 overall TDs (2nd most) to opposing tight ends in '25.

Parlay #1 (Falcons) +425  DK

Kirk Cousins u0.5 Interceptions

Bijan Robinson o3.5 Receptions

Kyle Pitts u44.5 Rec Yards

QB Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford is now the odds-on favorite to win the MVP after ripping the Buccaneers for 273 yards and 3 TD on 35 attempts (7.8 YPA). He’s thrown for multiple TDs in 9 of his last 10 games and 3+ TDs in 6 of his L8. He will face a Carolina defense in week 13 who deploys the 3rd highest rate of Cover 3 (39.8%) across the league, and he averages 8.64 YPA with a 9.2% CPOE that has yielded a 110.5 passer rating on 128 dropbacks against Cover-3. Perhaps most importantly for this matchup, Stafford has also excelled against man coverage and the Rams protect him quite well. They are allowing a league-low 29.9% pressure rate, which allows him clean pockets to operate from. Stafford should be able to do whatever he wants against a Panthers pass rush that ranks 30th in pressure rate and sacks.

Suggested Bet:

Matthew Stafford 250+ Pass Yards (-116)

RB Kyren Williams

Even though Matthew Stafford already has 30 TDs, there has still been enough TD juice for Kyren, who has already found the end zone 9 times this season. Once again, he’s tracking towards 13-15 touchdowns and 1,400 scrimmage yards, and this is all despite Blake Corum playing on 25-30% of the snaps. The Rams should be able to move the ball well against a Panthers run defense that has allowed 100 or more yards on the ground in 5 straight games, while allowing the 3rd most backfield runs per game during this time (27.6). They were torched at home for 238 rushing yards by the Buffalo Bills backfield in week 8, followed by games of 103 yards (@ GB), 105 yards (vs NO), 114 yards (@ ATL) and 129 yards on MNF vs San Francisco. In addition, Carolina has surrendered a league-high 7 rushing TDs during this 5-week span. This is an ideal spot for Kyren to pop against a pitiful Panthers run defense.

Suggested Bet:

Kyren Williams o64.5 Rush Yards (-111)

WR Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua is coming off a 7 catch, 97 yard effort on 10 targets (29%) with a 78% route share in a victory over Tampa Bay last Sunday. If you're looking at a safe combo play, the LA Rams WR1 has reached 5+ receptions and 60+ yards in 9 of his last 10 games. As we discussed earlier with Matthew Stafford, the Panthers run the 3rd highest rate of Cover-3 in the NFL (39.8%), where Puka has averaged 4.59 YPRR and .46 TPRR on 85 routes in '25. One point of emphasis to take away from the Rams game against the Buccaneers is they shifted more towards 11 personnel, which resulted in Nacua being on the field for 86.1% of the team's dropbacks, his highest rate since week 5. Also, Carolina will be without two of its best players in the secondary this Sunday. Puka Nacua has feasted on Cover-3 all season and the Panthers allowed Drake London to go for 7 receptions and 119 yards in a similar spot just two weeks ago.

Suggested Bet:

Puka Nacua o7.5 Receptions (-112)

WR Davante Adams 

Davante Adams continued his red-zone domination in Week 12, hauling 5 of 8 targets for 62 yards and 2 TDs. He's scored an NFL-best 12 times in 11 games. Adams may be earning significantly fewer targets, but his connection with QB Matthew Stafford has been excellent. He leads the league in both end-zone (22) and red-zone targets (26), and has found the end zone 9 times alone over his last 5 games. Against Cover-3, where the Panthers play at the league's 3rd highest rate (39.8%), Adams is averaging 2.04 YPRR and .25 TPRR on 91 routes. While this split may not be as strong as teammate Puka Nacua, it should be noted that Carolina is giving up the 7th most YPR (13.93) and 15th most TDs (7) to receivers aligned out wide. The Rams veteran receiver may be averaging his fewest receiving yards since 2018, but it hasn't mattered because inside the red zone Matthew Stafford only has eyes for Davante Adams. There's no reason to think this will change going forward.

Suggested Bet:

Davante Adams Anytime TD (-155)

Davante Adams 2+ ALT TDs (+390)

TE Colby Parkinson/Davis Allen

As I stated last week, the TE situation in Los Angeles is a revolving door without Tyler Higbee. Colby Parkinson (4-41-1) and Davis Allen (3-29-0) combined for 7 catches and 70 yards in week 12 vs Tampa Bay, however Parkinson outran Allen in pass routes 19-15. They each have recorded 3 TDs this season. The problem here is we've seen Parkinson post solid numbers one week, then disappear the next. Even though Carolina is giving up 66.6 YPG to opposing tight ends, we just don't know at any given point who that's going to be for the Rams.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

QB Bryce Young

After posting the best game of his career in week 11 at Atlanta, Bryce Young came back to earth and immediately reverted to the same QB we've seen all season on MNF against the 49ers. The Carolina QB completed 18 of 29 passes for 169 yards with a TD and 2 INTs. Young has now thrown for less than 200 yards in 7 of his 9 starts this season, and things won't get any easier in week 13 when he faces a Rams defense that ranks 10th in the league in o rate (39.0%). Los Angeles runs the 7th highest rate of Cover-3 (36.8%), and in 126 dropbacks this season Bryce Young is averaging just 6.7 YPA. He's also coming in this game off a short week so that's another factor that is playing against him. This is just not pointing to a good matchup for Bryce Young as he's facing one of the NFL's best coaches, along with a defense that is allowing just 11.7 passing PPG (6th best), allowing 6.3 yards PPA (5th best) and a 3.3% touchdown rate (5th best). The Rams have also forced 12 interceptions this season, which is the 3rd most in the NFL.

Suggested Bet:

Bryce Young 1+ Interceptions (-134)

RB Rico Dowdle/Chubba Hubbard 

It's looking more and more like Carolina is reverting back to a standard running back by committee approach now that Rico Dowdle has slowed down. With the Panthers chasing points on MNF, Dowdle turned only 10 touches into 74 yards. Dowdle recorded both his fewest snaps (65.2%) and fewest backfield touches (58.8%) since week 8. Re-enter Chubba Hubbard, who had just 7 touches of his own for a 34.8% snap share, but ironically this was the most he's seen since week 8. It's becoming more and more apparent that Dave Canales wants to keep the RB position fresh, and the best way to do that is going with a split backfield. And it's hard to make an argument against it right now, considering Rico has rushed 43 times for only 136 yards (3.2 YPC) over the past 3 weeks. A lot of this could be a direct result of the failures in Carolina's offensive line, and Sunday's game against LA is not a good bounceback spot. The Rams are allowing just 3.8 YPC and 4.3 yards per touch to opposing backfields. Rico's production has been bailed out due to his ability in the pass-catching game, but this is a difficult matchup here.

Suggested Bet:

Rico Dowdle u81.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-112)

WR Tetaroia McMillan 

Like it or not, as long as Bryce Young is the starting quarterback in Carolina, Tetairoa McMillan is going to be held back. Young has thrown for less than 200 yards in all but two games this season. This is exactly why we've seen McMillan take one step forward and two steps back all season. Given the ability of LA to get to the quarterback, this is not a good spot for Bryce Young to bounce back in week 13. Tet logged just 2 catches last week, and Young is going to be chasing his tail on Sunday. You would be wise to not chase McMillan's tail.

Suggested Bet:

Tetaroia McMillan u5.5 Receptions (-146)

WR Jalen Coker/Xavier Legette 

Jalen Coker (3-32-0) and Xavier Legette (3-22-0) combined for only 6 receptions and 54 yards on nine total targets. When both have been active, neither has been particularly productive. Despite that, we did hit our suggested bet on Jalen Coker last week, however I just do not like this matchup on Sunday for the Panthers. They are coming off a short week, and now they have to face a Rams defense that will get after Bryce Young on Sunday. 

Suggested Bet:

Pass

Not a big fan of Bryce Young at all and this is not a 6-6 football team. The Rams looked unreal just about everywhere last week and I expect them to carry that momentum into today 

Best Bet Rams -9.5 -120
Lean Rams 'O' 26.5 Pts -142
Score Prediction Rams 30 Panthers 13

Anytime TD

Best Play (Rams):  Davante Adams -155

The numbers speak for themselves with regard to Davante Adams. He leads all NFL receivers with 26 red-zone targets and 22 end-zone targets, which has allowed Adams to find paydirt 12 times this season. He's been on fire as of late, scoring 9 touchdowns in his last 5 games, and he will face a Panthers defense that has surrendered 7 scores to WR lined up out wide. 

Best Play (Panthers):  Rico Dowdle +125

Rico Dowdle hasn't been as explosive in recent games, but he's still the focal point of the Panthers ground attack. The offense should look better at home this Sunday, and they could be chasing points here as well. Look for Rico to get back to work and find the end zone

First Touchdown

Longshot (Rams):  Colby Parkinson  +1100

The tight end has scored in 3 straight games for Los Angeles, so we're getting a fairly generous price here. Parkinson has clearly established a rapport with Stafford, especially in the red zone, and the Panthers will have their hands full worrying about Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. A fourth consecutive touchdown feels very much on the table.

Parlay #1 (Rams) +286  DK

Matthew Stafford 250+ Pass Yards 

Matthew Stafford 2+ Pass TDs

Puka Nacua 7+ Receptions

Davante Adams Anytime TD 

Parlay #2 (Panthers) +462  DK

Bryce Young u191.5 Pass Yards

Bryce Young 1+ Interceptions

Tetairoa McMillan u5.5 Receptions

QB Jacoby Brissett

Since taking over as the starting QB, Jacoby Brissett has been a high-volume passer, averaging 314.5 passing YPG across six starts. Brissett has exceeded 300+ yards in 3 of those games, including each of his L2 outings. This Sunday, Brissett will face a Buccaneers defense that primarily employs zone coverage schemes. This sets up nicely for a Cardinals offense that has experienced success with Brissett under center by targeting its perimeter wide receivers, a position where Tampa Bay has allowed the 2nd most receiving YPG since week 8. For as good as the Bucs have been against the run, they've performed equally as bad against the pass. TB possesses one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, allowing an average of 243.5 passing YPG. Moreover, the Buccaneers have have surrendered 300+ yards to Sam Darnold (341), Mac Jones (347) and Josh Allen (317). I look for Brissett to clear his passing yards prop with ease, and I like that he has several avenues in which to navigate this. The first being that we could easily see a shootout between the two teams here in Tampa. Another route is if the Bucs get out in front of Arizona early. TB has not played particularly well since its bye week. After starting the season out 6-2, the Buccaneers have lost 3 straight to drop to 6-5, so they should return to Raymond James Stadium playing extremely hungry. If this occurs, it's likely to result in Jacoby Brissett racking up some yards late in the game via method of garbage time, which we've seen him do multiple times this season. Lastly, Tampa Bay blows a lot of coverages and this has led to several big plays in the passing.

Suggested Bet:

Jacoby Brissett 260+ Pass Yards (-127)

RB Bam Knight

Bam Knight was limited in all three of Arizona's practices this week, while managing a knee issue. He was deemed questionable on Friday's final injury report, but it sounds like he's going to give it a go against Tampa Bay this Sunday. A lot of this may be largely due to the fact that Trey Benson and Emari Demercado habe both been ruled for week 13. As a result, Knight along with Michael Carter should combine to see most of the offensive snaps. With that said, the Buccaneers defense has been staunch against the run all season. They have had allowed a few big runs this season, but that has been a product of the defense being forced to stay on the field, and this game does not indicate that Tampa Bay will be forced to play from behind, at least not for long periods at a time. The Bucs have been especially stong in the opening quarter and halves of each game in stopping the run. This is a game where Arizona will once again be leaning on its passing game. Knight will already be sharing touches with Michael Carter, and the Bucs do a great job of creating negative rushing plays.

Suggested Bet:

Bam Knight u17.5 1H Rush Yards (-119)

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is hoping to suit up against Tampa Bay on Sunday, but we are faced with a pair of obstacles as it relates to MHJ. The first being if he does suit up, will Harrison be limited in any capacity. The second, however is Jamel Dean's status for Sunday. The Bucs DB is the highest graded CB in the NFL, and he ranks 1st in the league in passer rating when targeted (18.7%) and completion percentage allowed when targeted (39.1%). Given Arizona's high rate of dropbacks we should still see a ton of passes going Harrison's way on Sunday, but Michael Wilson's production over the past few weeks will not be ignored. Needless to say, there still remains several questions surrounding how Arizona will use MHJ and Michael Wilson together on the field, not to mention how Jamel Dean's trending upward status will factor in here. For this reason, we're keeping it simple in week 13 with the Cardinals receivers and I still think we're getting gifted on Marvin Harrison Jr's reception total of 3.5.

Suggested Bet:

Marvin Harrison Jr. o3.5 Receptions (-150)

WR Michael Wilson

Anyone who thinks Michael Wilson is going to go back to his former role and disappear is out of their mind, and this was more or less confirmed today by Arizona OC Drew Petzing. He was specifically asked today about how Wilson would be affected by the return of MHJ, in which he responded, "When you produce in this league, we're gonna give you more opportunities to do that. I think that's our job as coaches. I think that's always gotta be the case." In the last 2 weeks, Wilson has put up 15 catches on 18 targets for 185 yards, and 10 catches on 15 targets for 118 yards. Despite the return of Marvin Harrison Jr., his reception and yardage lines are still too low. MHJ is coming back from appendicits, which may limit his usage/and or production. The connection between Brissett and Wilson is too good to simply shelve, and I would be shocked if the Cardinals move away from it. There is plenty of roomfor both Harrioson and Wilson to play well as WRs. As far as this Sunday is concerned, Wilson has a phenomenal matchup against the Bucs who have allowed the 6th most receiving yards to WRs and 5th most yards per reception. Tampa Bay also allows the 4th most targets to outside WRs, which is where Wilson has lined up for 78% of his routes. On the other hand, they have given up the 11th fewest yards to tight ends, and word out of One Buc Place is that Trey McBride should expect to see multiple double teams. In the past few weeks, outside WRs have absolutely destroyed Tampa Bay in this matchup. This is a list that includes Puka Nacua (97 yards), Davante Adams (62 yards), Tyrell Shavers (90 yards), Mack Hollins (106 yards), Kyle Williams (72 yards), Rashid Shaheed (75 yards), Chris Olave (63 yards) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (86 yards). Michael Wilson will be added to this list after Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Michael Wilson Jr. o56.5 Rec Yards (-113

WR Trey McBride

Over the past 24 hours, there have been several concerns swirling about Trey McBride potentially facing multiple double teams instituted by Todd Bowles and the Bucs on Sunday. For this reason, I'm going to target McBride as an Anytime TD scorer. The Arizona TE has been a scoring machine lately, posting 4 TDs in his L5 games. He's cashed in on almost every matchup where the Cardinals have found themselves inside the opponents 20-yard line. His connection with Jacoby Brissett has been nothing short of elite since he took over for Kyler Murray under center. McBride has clearly cemented himself as the clear#1 option in red-zone, in addition to recording 9+ catches in each of his L3 games. In six games with Brissett at QB, McBride is up to 51 catches for 522 yards and 6 TD. McBride may see some double teams up and down the field, but his scoring production in the end zone is second to none right now.

Suggested Bet:

Trey McBride Jr. Anytime TD (+130)

QB Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield dodged a major bullet last week when he injured his non-throwing left shoulder, but the MRI revealed there was no damage and it appears he will be able take the field in week 13 vs Arizona. I still believe this is a game that has some sneeaky shootout potential. Baker Mayfield has cleared this line in each of his 4 home starts, while averaging 262.8 pass YPG. The Cardinals defense has been a pass funnel this season, ranking 20th in EPA per pass and 11th in EPA per rush. In addition, they have given up the 11th most pass yards on the season. Baker's line for 30+ PAs on Sundayis -300, and QBs with more than 30 attempts hav dominated within this matchup. They include: Trevor Lawrence (256 yards), Dak Prescott (250 yards), Cam Ward (265 yards), Mac Jones (284 yards), Bryce Young (328 yards) and Spencer Rattler (214 yards). Baker Mayfield is coming off back-to-back brutal matchups against Buffalo and the LA Rams, who both rank in the top six in pass EPA. The Cardinals provide Mayfield with a much softer secondary, and Baker looked good today when moving around in practice so it appears his shoulder should not play much of a factor in this spot. One thing we do know is that Baker Mayfield is as tough as they come, and I don't see him allowing Tampa Bay to lose a 4th consecutive game.

Suggested Bet:

Baker Mayfield 220+ Pass Yards (-143

QB Bucky Irving

Bucky Irving will finally return to the Buccaneers lineup this Sunday, but Todd Bowles was quoted saying, "We'll put him in. Once he gets in, we'll see how he's rolling. And then between him, Rachaad and Sean, we'll kind of go with the hot hand." In addition, Tampa Bay OC Josh Grizzard said we should expect Bucky to see a workload similar to Chris Godwin (35% snap share) when he returns. Irving's rush attempts for week 13 is set at just 9.5 so we're certainly not going expected to get a big outpouring from him against Arizona. With that said, Arizona has allowed 4.8 YPC to opposing RBs (25th) with a 56.1% success rate (28th) and six rushing TDs (24th) over the last 6 games. We're not going to get the volume we necessarily want, but I think the Bucs want to get Bucky out their and see how he looks. Part of that evaluation will center around his endurance and production as the game wears on. This is a strong matchup at home against a Cardinals defense that is really struggling, and I think Bucky is going to remind all of us just how important and valuable he is to this offense.

Suggested Bet:

Bucky Irving 40+ Rushing Yards (-128)

WR Emeka Egbuka

Emeka Egbuka has been trending downward lately, and I can't help but think the injury to Mike Evans has caught up to his production, and most importantly the quality of his targets. Despite another 25% target share, Egbuka caugh only 3 of the 8 target directed his way. After getting getting out of the gate to a quick start where he hauled in 25 of 38 targets (65.8%) and 5 TDs, the rookie has seen his production go down dramatically. He's caught only 23 of 55 (41.8%) targets since the injury to Evans. Part of this also coincides with the struggles Baker Mayfield has encountered, but his issus trickle down to an offensive line that has had its own struggles staying healthy. What the offense is experiencing is clearly a perfect example of what we call the domino effect. Hopfeully, the return of Bucky Irving will begin to open things up for the offense. Egbuka could very bust one open today, but I still think 6 receptions is a lot to ask of Emeka in this spot.

Suggested Bet:

Emeka Egbuka u5.5 Receptions (-131)

WR Chris Godwin

Chris Godwin provides us with the most value for Tampa Bay in a week 13 home matchup against Arizona. He return last week for a 37% snap share and still saw 4 targets. Bucs OC Josh Grizzard is going to ramp up his usage this Sunday, and I am buying him low today, and also laddering. Godwin is simply too talented for a line this low, especially with the return of Bucky Irvin as a legitimate running threat for the Buccaneers. I'm not going to go terribly in depth here, but Chris Godwin has cleared this line in 22 of 24 career games, and this a great spot for both he and Emeka Egbuka to stretch the field against weak Arizona secondary.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Godwin o29.5 Rec Yards (-129)

Chris Godwin 40+ ALT Rec Yards (+150)

Chris Godwin 60+ ALT Rec Yards (+417)

TE Cade Otton

Everybody and their mother is targeting Cade Otton in week 13, and who can blame them. Arizona is allowing the 9th most receiving YPG (65.6) and 12th most receptions per game (6.0) to opposing TEs. I, however, am in the minority this week, seeing him as a either a boom or bust play. My reservations stem from Otton's production going back to last season and earlier in '24 when the Bucs had a healthy lineup. Tampa Bay isn't quite there yet, but they have both Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving back now, and the healthier the Bucs receiving core is, the less usage we see out of Cade Otton. He collected just 11 targets over the first 4 games of the season, and it wasn't until the injury to Mike Evans that we saw him take off. This was the same narrative last year as well. I'm not saying Otton is going to draw blanks on Sunday. He is capable of having a really big game, but I just worry about him killing a potentially big parlay when he's had similarly good matchups in the past and not been used. Playing Otton isn't a bad idea here, but I would limit him to a single play only and exclude him from your parlays.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

I think the Bucs win this game in a MUST WIN! Give me TB to win by a touchdown

Best Bet Bucs -2.5 -155
Lean Over 44.5 -110
Score Prediction Cardinals 24 Buccaneers 30

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Play (Cardinals):  Michael Wilson +230

Best Play (Buccaneers):  Cade Otton +225

First TD Scorer

Longshot (Cardinals):  Trey McBride +800

Longshot (Buccaneers):  Bucky Irving +950

Parlay #1 (Cardinals) +288  DK

Jacoby Brissett 260+ Pass Yards

Marvin Harrison Jr. 4+ Receptions

Michael Wilson o56.5 Rec Yards

Parlay #2  (Buccaneers) +950  DK

Baker Mayfield 220+ Pass Yards

Chris Godwin 40+ Rec Yards

Cade Otton Anytime TD

QB Max Brosmer

I'll keep it a buck with you guys, I don't even know who Max Brosmer is. But after a quick Google search, he's an undrafted QB from the University of Minnesota. He had his highest completion percentage (66.2%) of his collegiate career, but threw for 2,617 passing yards – a big downgrade from his previous two seasons, where he threw for over 3,000. He was decent in the preseason, throwing for 364 passing yards and a 60.3% completion percentage, finishing with a two-to-one TD-INT ratio. I'm not going to sit here and pretend to come up with a sharp pick because it should be a struggle for the undrafted QB. The Seahawks are a tough defence. They do allow a lot of completions (23.7) and pass attempts (37.6), but that has translated to just 233.9 passing yards and the 11th fewest passing TDs. This would have been a stay-away spot if this were JJ McCarthy, so that shouldn't change with an unknown Max Brosmer.

Suggested pick:

Pass

RB Aaron Jones

The Vikings had to kind of abandon the run after going down early last week. Aaron Jones had just nine rush attempts for 41 rushing yards. Not a bad average, but just no volume. But he still outsnapped Jordan Mason 65.9% to 27.3%, so we will just focus on Jones. This week, he'll get the Seahawks defence who allow the 7th fewest rush attempts (19.3) and the 3rd fewest rushing yards (66.3) per game. They run a near split between zone concept (42.4%) and man/gap (39%). They allow a 3.86 yards per carry vs. zone (11th lowest) and an even stingier 3.16 vs. man/gap, the lowest mark in the league. Jones has been efficient against both coverages, averaging 4.03 yards per carry vs. zone and 5.12 yards per carry against man/gap. However, the Seahawks have been regarded as one of the best run defences, so we don't necessarily want to target Jones on the ground. However, through the air is somewhere we might be able to find an advantage. The Seahawks allow the 2nd most receptions (5.6) and the 5th most receiving yards (40.8). And look at his QB. They're likely going to try to scheme some easy completions for Brosmer to find his footing in the NFL. And that would likely result in some easy dump-offs to Jones, who has recorded 3+ receptions in three straight games.

Suggested Pick:

Aaron Jones o2.5 Receptions (-170)

WR Justin Jefferson

Will Brosmer be the QB that helps Justin Jefferson get back to his superstar level we're all used to? I'm not sure. But he wasn't getting it done with McCarthy, so here's to better days? The Seahawks are a difficult matchup as is, allowing the 16th fewest receptions (11.2) and the 4th fewest receiving yards (121.8) per game to opposing WRs. The Seahawks run the 7th most zone coverage (77.6%), and the 3rd most Cover 6 (18.4%) in the league. Against zone coverage, Jefferson earns the highest target share (29.6%) on the Vikings, which has amounted to him hauling in 44 receptions on 66 targets for 612 receiving yards on 243 routes. Against Cover 6, Jefferson has a slightly lower but still substantial target share (22.6%), to which he has five receptions for 71 receiving yards on nine targets. Jefferson does his best work against zone coverage, seeing a bump in catch rate, yards per reception and yards per route run. Jefferson runs 73.8% of his routes from outwide. The Seahawks are targeted at a middle-of-the-pack rate, but do a great job at limiting players in that alignment, allowing the 3rd lowest catch rate (57.2%) and the 2nd lowest yards per reception (11.03). While I'll be watching this game intently to see how Brosmer looks, we aren't going to be suggesting you trust it before we see it for our own eyes.

Suggested pick:

Pass

WR Jordan Addison

Like Jefferson, we aren't going to be suggesting much in terms of this passing game. However, we will still give the analysis in case somebody has bigger stones than I. But I don't know why you would with Brosmer under centre, especially considering Addison was a zero last week. He saw just one target and was not able to bring that target in, despite running 25 routes. Against zone coverage, Addison has caught 19 of his 36 targets for 306 receiving yards. But against Cover 6, he sees the highest target share at 37.5%, hauling in nine of his 12 targets for 170 receiving yards. However, I'm not choosing to read much into that as we have a QB change; who knows who Brosmer's favourite target is going to be against specific coverages. But even if it was a regular week with a more veteran QB under centre, Addison sees his catch rate, yards per reception and yards per route run all dip in zone coverage compared to man. Like Jefferson, Addison runs most of his routes from the outside, 77.2%. But as we've already covered, that's a difficult matchup. So, we are going to pass on Addison again.

Suggested pick:

Pass

TE TJ Hockenson

Okay, we might actually bite here on some TJ Hockenson stock, something we haven't traditionally done this season. The Seahawks struggle to cover the TE position, allowing the 2nd most receptions (6.9) and the 3rd most receiving yards (71.3) per game. And Hockenson has performed quite well against the Seahawks' preferred coverages. He sees a massive uptick in target share, yards per reception and yards per route run when in zone compared to man. Against zone coverage, Hockenson has caught 30 of his 41 targets for 252 receiving yards while earning an 18.4% target share. Against Cover 6, Hockenson has four receptions on five targets for 18 receiving yards with a 12.5% target share. Hockenson lines up inline on 43.2% of his routes this season, but saw 57% of his routes from the slot last week. Against slot receivers, the Seahawks are targeted at the 4th highest rate, allowing the 13th highest catch rate (71.3%) but the 11th lowest yards per reception. Similar to RBs, TEs who run out of the slot oftentimes have a low aDoT, which makes it easier for them to connect, especially with an inexperienced QB, like Hockenson has this week in Brosmer. Last week against the Packers, who allow receptions to a top-five rate, like the Seahawks, Hockenson caught all four targets. We're expecting Hockenson to be made available in the short areas of the field this week.

Suggested pick:

TJ Hockenson o3.5 Receptions (+125)

QB Sam Darnold
Darnold enters this contest with a season line of 207 completions on 298 attempts (69.5%) for 2,785 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. In his last outing, he completed 16 of 26 passes for 244 yards and 2 touchdowns without a turnover, adding one carry for -1 yard. His advanced metrics are great, boasting a 9.35 yards per attempt (YPA), a 106.2 passer rating, and a 254.1 yards per game average, along with a 9.5 average depth of target (aDOT) and a 79.0% adjusted completion percentage. Despite facing pressure on 29.9% of dropbacks with a 3.5% sack rate and a 3.7% turnover-worthy throw (TWT) rate, Darnold’s ability to handle the blitz is the big here. Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the league (47.0%) and utilizes a heavy box 37.2% of the time - Darnold ranks 1st in pass grading against the blitz, averaging a league-high 10.8 YPA in those scenarios. However, the risk remains high, as he is tied for the league lead in interceptions against the blitz (5) and ranks second in interceptions against two-high coverage (6), which Minnesota runs on a league-high 67% of snaps (mostly Cover 2 and 3). Ultimately, because this offense handles pressure well and Darnold’s first-read percentage is 64.4%, the lean is to back his props despite the turnover risks.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 225.5 Passing Yards (-110)
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (+110)

RB Kenneth Walker III
Walker appears to be ascending at the right time, having played a season-high 62.5% of the snaps last week while handling a season-high 70% of the backfield touches for 101 total yards. His season totals sit at 147 carries for 677 yards (4.61 YPC) and 4 touchdowns, plus 17 catches on 19 targets for 157 yards. Advanced metrics highlight his explosiveness (8.2% explosive run rate) and solid efficiency (45.6% success rate, 2.05 yards after contact per attempt). The Vikings present a volume-heavy matchup; while they allow just 3.9 yards per carry (10th lowest), they face a league-high 27.2 running back runs and 30.7 backfield touches per game. With the Vikings starting a rookie quarterback (Brosmer), Seattle may find themselves in a positive game script that encourages running. Given the coach's commitment to giving Walker more work, he is a strong volume-based play here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)

RB Zach Charbonnet
Charbonnet remains a touchdown-dependent option who hasn’t looked like a great runner this season. He has 111 carries for 385 yards (3.47 YPC) and 7 touchdowns this season, adding 9 catches for 67 yards. His last game saw him turn 6 carries into 35 yards and a score. The advanced stats are concerning: his 3.47 YPC is the 6th lowest among qualified running backs, and he holds a low 2.7% explosive run rate with 2.32 yards after contact per attempt. Despite a decent 45.9% success rate, his role has clearly been defined as the short-yardage compliment to Walker. Against a stout Vikings front, Charbonnet is a fade or pass, as he offers little value outside of a potential goal-line plunge.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
JSN is enjoying a historic, franchise-record-setting campaign, leading the league with 1,313 receiving yards on 80 catches (76.9% catch rate) and 7 touchdowns. He is coming off a monster performance with 8 catches for 167 yards and 2 scores. His usage is elite: a 34.4% target share, 46.9% of team yards, 46.4% first-read share, and 51% share of air yards. He leads the NFL with 4.50 yards per route run (YPRR)—significantly ahead of the next closest player (3.42). The matchup is perfect for his skill set; Smith-Njigba commands a team-high 40.3% target share against the blitz (6.47 YPRR) and a 40.1% share against two-high coverage (5.23 YPRR), both of which Minnesota utilizes heavily. With the Vikings allowing 10.8 yards per target (31st) and a 5.6% touchdown rate to WR1s, JSN is an over or pass until further notice.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 95.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
125+ Receiving Yards (+220)

WR Rashid Shaheed
Shaheed’s production has evaporated, as evidenced by his last game where he caught 0 passes on 2 targets, managing only a 5-yard run. On the season, he has 47 catches on 72 targets (65.3%) for 529 yards and 2 touchdowns, primarily operating out wide (70.1%). His advanced stats show an 18.1% target share, 20.3% of team yards, 11.26 yards per reception, and a 20.9% first-read share. While his snap participation remains steady (hovering between 61.5% and 73.3%), the output is not matching the opportunity, resulting in a modest 79.0 passer rating when targeted. In this offense, he has become difficult to trust and is a full stay away for betting purposes.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE A.J. Barner
Barner has been highly efficient, catching 33 of 39 targets (84.6%) for 324 yards and 4 touchdowns. He lines up inline 85.5% of the time, serving as a reliable safety valve with a 6.1 aDOT and 9.8 yards per reception. Notably, he is tied with JSN for the team lead in red zone targets (11). The matchup favors tight end production, as Minnesota allows the 14th most targets (7.82), 13th most receptions (5.82), and 14th most receiving yards (55.7) to the position per game. Barner ranks 2nd among tight ends in yards per route run against the blitz. Facing a Vikings defense that blitzes 47% of the time, Barner should see ample opportunities as a hot read, making this a nice spot to back his production.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

This Seahawks team is a perfect example of a complete team and with the Vikings down to their 3rd string QB I expect the Seahawks to handle business. Now with that being said 11.5 points is a lot and JJ McCarthy was BRUTAL for the Vikings offense and I dont it could get any worse. I think the Vikings lose but I do think they keep it within 2 scores

Best Bet Vikings +11.5 -120
Lean Over 41.5 -120
Score Prediction Vikings 24 Seahawks 27

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Vikings): Aaron Jones (+145)

It might be a tough time for anybody to find the end zone for the Vikings this week. So, we'll fall back on the RB position to possibly find a score in this game. It won't be easy for Jones, as the Seahawks allow the 3rd fewest TDs to RBs this season.

Best Bet (Seahawks): A.J. Barner +240

I like the value on Barner in a good matchup. He trails only JSN in redzone targets and they also have used him in tush push scenarios. With Shaheed not doing much yet, Barner is still a go to option in this passing attack.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Seahawks): Jaxon Smith-Njigba +500

I'm not sure what more I can say about JSN, he's having a truly incredible season. He is coming off a monster performance with 8 catches for 167 yards and 2 scores. He is the go to option against the blitz, which MIN does at the highest rate in the league. I would not shock me to see SEA strike quickly with a deep bomb to JSN. We've seen it too many times this season.

Parlay 1: (Vikings) +300 odds on bet365

Aaron Jones 10+ Rush Attempts

Aaron Jones 3+ Receptions

Aaron Jones 30+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: (Seahawks) +457

SEA Seahawks -6.5

Sam Darnold 250+ Pass Yards

JSN 125+ Receiving Yards

QB Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert enters this matchup trying to stabilize an offense that has stalled over the past two weeks. He’s thrown just one touchdown in his last two games after opening the season with consistently strong multi-score outings. Last week’s result — 10/18 passing for only 81 yards, an INT, and limited rhythm — reflected the Chargers’ larger issue: their banged-up offensive line is struggling to keep Herbert clean long enough for downfield concepts to develop. The matchup, however, is more favorable than it appears on the surface. Las Vegas plays Cover 3 at the highest rate in the league (46.3%), and Herbert traditionally handles this coverage with comfort, averaging 8.26 YPA, +7.5% CPOE, and 7/53 rushing across 111 dropbacks against it. The Raiders are middle-of-the-pack in pass defense, allowing the 15th-most passing yards per game (229.5) and 1.5 passing TDs per game. Herbert’s earlier meeting with Las Vegas was rocky (242 yards, 3 INTs), but that game was shaped by protection breakdowns and forced hero-ball situations. If the Chargers can stabilize early downs and avoid obvious passing situations, Herbert should find enough areas in Raiders’ zone structure to rebound statistically. Efficiency may still be inconsistent, but increased attempts and cleaner pockets should result in a more stable passing line.

Suggested Play:
'O' 236.5 Passing Yards (-120)

RB Kimani Vidal

Kimani Vidal remains the lead back whenever Omarion Hampton is unavailable, but his results have been volatile — three games over 108 scrimmage yards and three games under 35. His Week 11 performance (5 carries for 13 yards, 2 catches for -1 yards) reflected how quickly this offense can collapse when game flow goes against them. The Raiders’ run defense is sturdier than usual this season, allowing the second-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.52) and ranking 14th in rushing yards allowed (87.5). Their front plays downhill and limits early creases, forcing backs to win after contact. Vidal has shown he can produce in space, but he’s less effective when forced into tight interior lanes. Vegas also limits RB receiving production (29.8 receiving YPG allowed), and they’ve been disciplined against screen concepts, which reduces a potential outlet for Vidal. The matchup doesn’t eliminate his upside entirely — Judkins found the end zone twice last week — but it puts a notable cap on yardage efficiency. Vidal likely needs either improved game flow or red-zone usage to exceed expectations, but purely from a yardage standpoint, he’s facing an uphill battle.

Suggested Play:
'U' 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards  (-125)

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey cooled off with a 3/13 line last week after a strong mid-season stretch, but his underlying usage remains important. He plays primarily from the slot, and that’s where the matchup turns tricky. Las Vegas’ Cover 3 shell funnels inside routes into tightly packed zones, and slot receivers have struggled as a result. Against Cover 3, McConkey averages 1.26 YPRR and 0.12 targets per route — modest numbers for his typical involvement. The Raiders allow the eighth-fewest receiving yards (59.1) and ninth-fewest YPRR (1.65) to slot receivers, and their zone spacing closes quickly on short and intermediate routes. McConkey had 5/48 in the first meeting, and while he can still create after the catch, the schematic matchup does him no favors. With Herbert likely needing to push more perimeter throws to attack Vegas’ weakest area, McConkey projects for a more modest workload, especially if the Chargers struggle to sustain drives.

Suggested Play:
'U' 53.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen remains Herbert’s most reliable option, even with his overall volume dipping since Oronde Gadsden’s emergence. He posted 4/53 last week and continues to win against both man and zone with his route precision. Cover 3 is a favorable matchup for him — he averages an excellent 2.69 YPRR and 31% target rate per route across 62 routes versus the coverage. This aligns directly with how the Raiders prefer to play defense. Moreover, Las Vegas gives up the fifth-most receiving yards to perimeter WRs (125.6) and one of the highest YPRR marks (2.25). Allen’s ability to manipulate zone defenders and find soft areas puts him in a strong position to serve as both a chain-mover and an explosive-play threat. He posted 5/61/1 in this matchup earlier in the season, and the Chargers will likely need him heavily involved to stabilize the offense. Given Herbert’s positive track record vs Cover 3 and Allen’s efficiency versus zone, he projects as the most stable yardage option on the roster.

Suggested Play:
'O' 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Oronde Gadsden

Oronde Gadsden’s production has dipped over the last two weeks (5/54 total), but his underlying usage hasn’t disappeared. He continues to run a strong route share, and his efficiency vs Cover 3 is excellent — 3.61 YPRR and 28% target rate per route across 46 routes. The challenge here is that Las Vegas generally plays tight against tight ends, allowing the fifth-fewest TE receiving yards (39.5) and fourth-fewest receptions (3.8) per game. Their linebackers and safeties pass off routes cleanly, limiting seam access and reducing easy yards after the catch. Still, Gadsden’s alignment (often detached or in the slot) gives Cleveland opportunities to isolate him in softer coverage zones, and his size makes him a natural fit for Herbert when they need a middle-of-the-field answer. He may not produce big yardage, but his route involvement and usage in contested windows create a workable baseline.

Suggested Play:
Over 4.5 Receptions (+120)

This Raiders team just lost to Sheduer Sanders in his 2nd career start. The Chargers have to win games and they will kill this Raiders team this week. Chargers by a MILLION!

Best Bet Chargers -9.5 -120
Lean Over 39.5 -125
Score Prediction Raiders 14 Chargers 27 

Anytime TD Scorer

Oronde Gadsden (Chargers) +180

Oronde Gadsden’s recent stat lines don’t fully reflect the type of scoring opportunities he can generate. Even though Las Vegas allows the fifth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends, their Cover 3 structure does leave tight ends with one key advantage: isolated red-zone matchups against defenders who are responsible for both run fits and hook/curl responsibilities. Gadsden thrives in those areas because of his hybrid build — part tight end, part big slot receiver — which forces linebackers into tough leverage situations. Herbert has shown a willingness to trust him in contested windows, particularly on sit routes, seams, and pivot concepts near the goal line. If the Chargers reach scoring position, Gadsden is one of the few players on the roster who can box out defenders and win with size rather than pure separation. With Los Angeles likely needing red-zone creativity to avoid interior pressure, Gadsden’s role in play-action and misdirection sets elevates his TD equity more than his overall yardage projection suggests.

First TD Scorer

Keenan Allen (Chargers) +830

Keenan Allen is the Chargers’ most polished and reliable red-zone option, and his role sets up well for a first touchdown outcome. Against the Raiders’ heavy Cover 3 defense, Allen consistently finds soft pockets between the curl/flat defender and the deep third, which makes him Herbert’s natural early-drive target. His efficiency versus this coverage — 2.69 YPRR and 31% target rate per route — highlights how frequently he becomes the primary option when Herbert reads zone leverage pre-snap. The Raiders also struggle at the catch point against veteran route-runners who can manipulate pacing and stems, and Allen excels in exactly those situations. In the previous meeting with Las Vegas, he recorded a touchdown and was the most consistent mover of the offense. On scripted drives, the Chargers often use Allen as their coverage indicator, placing him in motion or isolating him to diagnose how the defense reacts. That usage increases his probability of drawing the first red-zone look if the Chargers score early.

Parlay #1 (Chargers) +330

Justin Herbert 'O' 236.5 Pass Yard

Oronde Gadsden 'O' 3.5 Receptions

Kimani Vidal ATD

QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen is coming off his worst start of the season throwing for 253 yards 0 TD passes and 2 interceptions. On the season, he’s averaging 246.3 passing yards per game, 8.28 YPA and has a 69.7% completion rate. He’s thrown 18 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. Josh is averaging 6.4 rush attempts for 33.7 rushing yards per game and has 10 total TDs on the ground. He’ll face a Steelers defense that ranks 17^th in EPA/Pass but has allowed the most passing yards per game on the season (258.7). They are a pass funnel, forcing the 4^th highest pass rate over expected (+4.1%). The Steelers play single-high at the 6^th highest rate (59.2%). Josh Allen and the Bills see the highest rate of single-high on the season (64.5%). Against single-high, Josh averages 8.47 YPA, a 68.1% completion rate and an average depth of target of 7.9 yards. That compares to 7.96 YPA, a 72.5% completion rate and a 7.7-yard average depth of target against two-high. The Steelers have pressured the QB at the 4^th lowest rate (33.5%). Allen averages 8.75 YPA, a 77.3% completion rate and 6.1 yards average depth of target when not pressured. That compares to 7.04 YPA, a 49.4% completion rate and 12.8 yards average depth of target when pressured. The Bills are 3-point road favorites with a 45.5 implied total. I like Josh to get back on track.

Suggested Pick:

Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105)

RB James Cook

James Cook averages 98.5 rushing yards per game on 5.45 YPC. He’s rushed for 8 touchdowns. He’ll face a Steelers defense that ranks 9^th worst in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 15^th fewest rushing yards per game (105.7). The Steelers allow the 9^th fewest YPC (3.85) and the 10^th lowest success rate (44.4%) against zone run concepts. That compares to the 10^th most YPC (4.77) and the 9^th highest success rate (54%) against man/gap. Cook has a 50-50 frequency split between the two concepts but has been more efficient in zone concepts. He’s averaging 5.78 YPC and a 64% success rate in zone concepts. That compares to 5.10 YPC and a 51% success rate against man/gap. Cook’s involvement in the receiving game has been hit or miss. In the past 4 weeks, he’s had a 46.7% route rate, 34.8%, 46.9% and 28.9% most recently. The Steelers are allowing the 9^th fewest receiving yards per game to RB. Hard to have trust either way for Cook here. I’ll take him to score a touchdown at plus odds.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (+105)

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir is averaging 51.3 receiving yards per game, 1.99 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.4%. Shakir has ran 71.8% of his routes from the slot. The Steelers are allowing the most receiving yards per game overall (277.6) and the 5^th most to the slot (85.6). Keon Coleman was a healthy scratch again last weekend. Outside of Shakir, who ran a route on 73.3% of drop backs, no other Bills WR ran a route on more than 56% of drop backs. It’s been a committee between Palmer, Moore, Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers. The Steelers play single-high at the 6^th highest rate (59.2%). The Bills see the highest rate of single-high on the season (64.5%). Against single-high, Shakir averages 2.48 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes. His 1^st-read rate also increases to 24.8%. The Steelers have pressured the QB at the 4^th lowest rate (33.5%). Shakir averages 2.73 YPRR, 32% TPRR and has a 24% 1^st-read rate when Josh is not pressured. Considering the Steelers force the 4^th highest pass rate over expected and Shakir is the only reliable WR for Josh at this point, expecting a big game.

Suggested Pick:

Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid hasn’t played since week 10, but he returned to practice Friday and he’s questionable to play on Sunday. If he can return, that would be a huge boost to Josh Allen and this offense. On the season, he’s averaging 56 receiving yards per game, 3.37 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes. That is elite production. The only drawback has been that he’s only run a route on 47% of dropbacks. He’ll face a Steelers defense that allows the 7^th most receiving yards and 5^th most touchdowns to TE. The Steelers play single-high at the 6^th highest rate (59.2%). The Bills see the highest rate of single-high on the season (64.5%). Against single-high, Kincaid averages 3.49 YPRR and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. The Steelers have pressured the QB at the 4^th lowest rate (33.5%). When Josh is not pressured, Kincaid averages an insane 4.44 YPRR and has been targeted on 33% of his routes. If Kincaid is active, will likely be betting on him in some fashion. If Knox is TE1, will pass as he’s been ineffective in Kincaid’s absence.

Suggested Pick

TBD (Overs)

QB Aaron Rodgers

After missing last week due to fracturing his non-throwing wrist, Rodgers is a go against the Bills. Excluding the game he left early with that wrist injury, Rodgers is averaging 205.9 passing yards per game and 1.9 passing touchdowns. He’s averaging 6.81 YPA and a 66.4% completion rate. Most of his throws are near the line of scrimmage, as he has a 6.2-yard average depth of target. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 5^th best in EPA/Pass and allows the fewest passing yards per game (168.2). The Bills have been a run funnel as they force the lowest pass rate over expected (-5.2%). Offenses tend to attack them via the run. Despite blitzing at a bottom 8 rate, the Bills are top 12 in pressure rate (39.3%). The Bills run two-high at the 7^th highest rate (54.4%). Against two-high, Rodgers averages 7.42 YPA, a 70.6% completion rate and a 5.3 yard aDOT. That compares to 6.06 YPA, a 61.2% completion rate and 7.2 yard aDOT against single-high. Rodgers hasn’t completed a pass 20 or more yards down field since week 8. The Bills allow the 2^nd fewest passing yards per game on targets 10 or less yards down field (94.5).

Suggested Pick:

Under 206.5 Passing Yards (-115)

RB Jaylen Warren

Warren averages 60.4 rushing yards per game on 4.28 YPC. After suffering an ankle injury in week 1, Warren was back in the lineup last week. Gainwell outsnapped him 36 to 34. Warren took 18 of 28 rush attempts and ran a route on 23.5% of drop backs. Gainwell ran 17 routes to Warren’s 8. With another week to get that ankle healed, Warren should see more usage. The Bills have been a run funnel as they force the lowest pass rate over expected (-5.2%). Offenses tend to attack them via the run. The Bills rank 4^th worst in EPA/Rush and have allowed the 3^rd most rushing yards per game (148.9). 66.7% of Warren’s rush attempts have been zone concept. He averages 4.35 YPC and has a 53.2% success rate. That compares to 4.43 YPC and a 63.6% success rate in man/gap concept. The Bills allow the most YPC (5.15) but just the 16^th highest success rate (47.9%) against zone concept runs. The Bills allow the 2^nd most YPC (5.53) but the 19^th highest success rate (50.9%) against man/gap concept. The Bills have been susceptible to big runs, allowing the 4^th highest explosive run rate (7.1%). Warren hasn’t had many big runs, with just a 2.8% explosive run rate, accounting for 113 of his 604 yards. From a receiving matchup, the Bills are allowing the 3^rd fewest receiving yards per game to RB. Considering Gainwell’s heavy usage here and the bearish matchup, I’d stay away in that regard.

Suggested Pick:

Over 13.5 Yard Longest Rush (-118)

WR DK Metcalf

DK is averaging 52.1 receiving yards per game, 1.81 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 26.2%. He’s caught a team-high 5 touchdowns on the season. He has primarily lined up out wide, at an 80.4% rate. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 5^th best in EPA/Pass and allows the fewest receiving yards per game (168.2). The Bills specifically allow the 9^th fewest receiving yards per game to wide alignment (91.7). The Bills have been a run funnel as they force the lowest pass rate over expected (-5.2%). Offenses tend to attack them via the run. Despite blitzing at a bottom 8 rate, the Bills are top 12 in pressure rate (39.3%). The Bills run two-high at the 7^th highest rate (54.4%). DK has negative splits against two-high, averaging 1.74 YPRR and 16% TPRR. His 1^st-read rate also declines to 19.1%. When Rodgers’ is pressured, DK has only 18 total receiving yards on the season. This is not a spot I want to back DK.

Suggested Pick:

Under 48.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Pat Freiermuth/Jonnu Smith/Darnell Washington

Last week, Jonnu led the team in route rate at 61.8%. Freiermuth was not far behind at 52.9%, followed by Darnell at 35.3%. The previous week, Darnell led the team with a 54.5% route rate, following by Jonnu at 48.5% and Pat at 39.4%. The Steelers have been a TE carousel and it’s hard to trust any 1 of these guys. Freiermuth has been the most productive, but has been carried by some spike weeks. He’s averaging 27.1 receiving yards per game, 1.71 YPRR and 18% TPRR. Darnell is averaging 21 receiving yards per game, 1.94 YPR and 24% TPRR (but his route rate is the lowest). Jonnu is averaging 16.7 receiving yards per game, 0.86 YPRR and 18% TPRR. The Bills allow the fewest receiving yards, fewest receptions and fewest touchdowns to TE. I wouldn’t bet on any of them.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

Both of these QBs have played plenty of games in the cold and I think this total is just way too low for how bad these defenses have been. The Bills have allowed 20+ points in 4 straight and Steelers 5/L6. Give me the over and a game winning field goal by the Bills 

Best Bet Over 45.5 -115
Lean Bills -2.5 -120
Score Prediction Bills 27 Steelers 24

Anytime TD Scorer

James Cook (Bills) +105

Not the best matchup but Cook has had excellent games in tougher matchups and has scored a touchdown in 64% of games this season and 74% last season.

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) +140

The Bills have one of the top passing defenses but struggle against the run. I’ll go with the Steelers RB1 coming off a touchdown last game.

First TD Scorer

James Cook (Bills) +625

Same analysis as anytime, he scored in the 1^st quarter last game and has done it 3 times this season, why not again, great odds!

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) +800

Same analysis as anytime, the Steelers best chance to stay competitive in this game is to run the rock, so I expect them to do that early and often and keep Josh off the field.

Parlay #1 (Bills) +420

Josh Allen 2+ Passing Touchdowns
James Cook Anytime Touchdown
Khalil Shakir Over 48.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (Steelers) +420

DK Metcalf Under 46.5 Receiving Yards
Aaron Rodgers Under 205.5 Passing Yards
Jaylen Warren Over 13.5 Yards Longest Rush

Parlay #3 (Longshot)+1005

DK Metcalf Under 46.5 Receiving Yards
Jaylen Warren Over 13.5 Yards Longest Rush
Josh Allen 2+ Passing Touchdowns
James Cook Anytime Touchdown