QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love enters Thanksgiving in a slump, failing to reach 176 passing yards in three straight games and posting zero touchdown passes in three of his last four, but the matchup against Detroit presents a very different environment than what he just faced against Minnesota. The Lions run the highest rate of man coverage in the league (41.7%), and Love has quietly been strong against man looks, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, a positive 4.6% completion percentage over expected, and adding functional scrambling production with 48 rushing yards on 102 dropbacks. Detroit’s defense is structurally aggressive and blitz-heavy, allowing the sixth-most passing touchdowns per game (1.8) and multiple touchdown performances to quarterbacks in eight of eleven contests. Even in a modest Week 1 performance, Love finished with 188 yards and 2 touchdowns on efficient 16-of-22 passing. With Detroit’s coverage routinely beaten on deep outbreakers and sideline verticals, and Christian Watson emerging as the team’s most effective man-beater, Love enters this game in position for a bounce-back through the air as the Packers attempt to match the Lions’ offensive pace in a short-week dome environment.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Pass TDs (-125)

RB Emanuel Wilson

Emanuel Wilson took over the backfield in Week 12 when Josh Jacobs was held out for precautionary reasons, handling a massive workload with 28 carries for 107 yards and two scores along with 18 receiving yards on two catches, demonstrating enough decisiveness and physicality to operate as a true every-down option if Jacobs remains limited. Detroit has been sturdy against the run from a yardage standpoint, giving up the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (79.3), but the Lions have shown consistent vulnerability in the red zone and on gap-scheme perimeter runs, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs and a top-10 rate in explosive runs. Wilson isn’t as dynamic as Jacobs but has shown dependable interior vision, and Green Bay leaned heavily into the ground game last week to protect Jordan Love in a conservative script. If Jacobs plays, Wilson becomes a rotational piece, but in short-week situations teams tend to lean on fresh legs, and Wilson’s work near the goal line last week positions him well to mix in again for scoring opportunities against a Lions defense that has conceded running back touchdowns in batches this season.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+220)

WR Romeo Doubs

Romeo Doubs continues to battle a wrist injury and has dipped below double-digit production in four of his last five games, but the role and route usage remain firmly intact as he played 67% of routes last week and continues to operate as Green Bay’s most frequently targeted intermediate possession receiver. Against Detroit’s heavy man-coverage approach—ranked No. 1 in the NFL—Doubs’ game has historically translated well, as he posted 2 catches for 68 yards in their Week 1 meeting and has averaged 1.23 yards per route run against man this season. The Lions are a highly volatile perimeter defense, allowing the fifth-most yards per reception (14.75) and the eleventh-most yards per route run to boundary receivers, often due to aggressive leverage that can be beaten on deep comebacks, back-shoulder timing throws, and slot fades. While Watson draws the explosive downfield role, Doubs remains Love’s most reliable chain-mover, and with Detroit’s secondary frequently giving up chunk gains to physical route runners, the matchup sets up well for Doubs to break at least one sizable gain even if overall volume remains modest.

Suggested Play:

'O' 19.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

WR Christian Watson

Christian Watson has now posted 45+ receiving yards in every one of his first five games this year and continues trending toward being the featured receiver in Jordan Love’s progression reads, coming off a game where he commanded a massive 32% target share and an 88% route rate in a blowout win over Minnesota. Detroit plays the highest rate of man coverage in football, and Watson has been Green Bay’s most dangerous weapon against man looks, averaging 2.79 yards per route run and routinely creating separation on overs, posts, and deep sideline routes where his long-stride speed becomes a matchup problem for corners playing press-man leverage. The Lions rank seventh-worst in receiving yards allowed to perimeter receivers and tenth-worst in yards per target allowed, showing regular breakdowns on vertical stems—an area where Watson’s skill set thrives. With Detroit’s defensive front likely forcing Love into quick vertical reads and Watson operating as both the primary deep-shot receiver and the top option against man, the setup strongly favors another red-zone or downfield scoring opportunity in a nationally televised divisional stage where Green Bay must score aggressively to keep pace.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+170)

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff heads into Thanksgiving operating one of the league’s most stable, timing-driven passing attacks, and he rebounded well in Week 12 after a rough outing vs. Philadelphia. His rhythm passing game returned against the Giants as he completed 28-of-42 throws for 279 yards and two touchdowns, showing once again how effective he is when kept clean and able to diagnose coverage pre-snap. Against Green Bay, he draws a defense leaning heavily on Cover 3 (32.4%) and Cover 2 (18.9%), structures Goff has historically excelled against; he’s posting 7.69 YPA, a +6.8% completion percentage over expected, and a 98.3 passer rating across 200 dropbacks vs. those shells. Joe Barry’s unit has been excellent at limiting explosive plays out of the slot but much more vulnerable outside the numbers, meaning Detroit’s quick-game, play-action, and RPO staples match up well with how Green Bay leverages their safeties. Goff completed 31-of-39 passes in the September meeting, rarely pushing the ball deep but consistently attacking the underneath zone voids. Expect Detroit to lean into tempo and spread formations again, forcing Green Bay’s linebackers into coverage conflicts.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs enters Thanksgiving as perhaps the NFL’s most explosive dual-threat back over the last month, coming off a historic performance where he became only the second player in league history (along with LaDainian Tomlinson) to record 200+ rushing yards and 10 receptions in the same game. His acceleration, perimeter speed, and receiving versatility create matchup nightmares for defenses that rely on off-zone structures — which is exactly what Green Bay does. Although the Packers sit middle-of-the-pack in most run-defense metrics (13th-fewest rushing yards allowed per game, ninth-fewest receiving yards allowed to RBs), their tackling efficiency and gap discipline have fluctuated, and Detroit’s offensive line had no issues displacing them in Week 1. Gibbs saw 19 total opportunities in that first matchup, but his role has dramatically expanded since then; he now leads the backfield in snap rate, routes, and explosive-play rate. Expect Ben Johnson to isolate Gibbs against linebackers in space using motion, angle routes, and perimeter toss looks, stressing a defense that can be slow to trigger downhill.

Suggested Play:

 Anytime Touchdown (-160)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the stabilizing engine of Detroit’s offense, stringing together yet another elite performance with 9 catches for 149 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets last week. His ability to separate vs. both zone and man makes him nearly scheme-proof, but this specific matchup is uniquely interesting: Green Bay allows the fewest slot receiving yards per game (37.5) and the fewest yards per route run (1.23) to slot receivers, a testament to their safety rotations and nickel cohesion. That said, St. Brown has repeatedly beaten elite coverage due to his route precision, choice-route freedom, and his nonstop involvement as the first read on key downs. Detroit also uses him creatively pre-snap — motion, stacks, return routes — which helps him avoid direct jams and allows him to find soft spots even against disciplined zone units. The Lions are unlikely to shy away from him simply because of metrics; historically, teams that try to limit St. Brown by shading help simply open up explosive plays for others. Expect heavy early volume, play-action crossers, and high-efficiency RPO slants to keep ARSB involved from the jump.

Suggested Play:

'O' 6.5 Receptions (-140)

WR Jameson Williams

Jameson Williams’ usage remained strong in Week 12 despite the zero-catch box score — he ran an 82% route share, was targeted deep, and even had a 36-yard gain wiped out by penalty. His volatility is tied to role rather than talent: Detroit deploys him as their primary field-stretcher, attacking the outer thirds and leveraging his speed to create coverage displacement for others. This matchup may actually favor him more than the box score from Week 1 suggests, because Green Bay’s defense has struggled to contain vertical perimeter routes, allowing the 12th-most receiving yards to outside receivers and ranking bottom-10 in deep-ball defensive EPA over the last month. With St. Brown commanding bracket attention and Gibbs demanding second-level help, Williams should find himself isolated in one-on-one situations — exactly where Goff has been more willing to give him chances in recent weeks. Expect a couple schemed shots, especially off max protection or post-motion looks that force the safeties to hesitate.

Suggested Play:

'O' 23.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

The Packers & Lions have had their fair share of shootouts as the L3 games the point totals have been 38,65,40. Now they play @DET in a dome rather than in the cold @GB. This Lions defense got shredded last week which is extremely concerning on a short week. Give me the over and the Lions to pull out a 7 point win.

Best Bet: Over 47.5 -110
Lean: Lions -2.5 -125 
Score Prediction: Packers 24 Lions 31

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet: (Packers) Christian Watson +170

Christian Watson has now posted 45+ receiving yards in every one of his first five games this year and continues trending toward being the featured receiver in Jordan Love’s progression reads, coming off a game where he commanded a massive 32% target share and an 88% route rate in a blowout win over Minnesota. Detroit plays the highest rate of man coverage in football, and Watson has been Green Bay’s most dangerous weapon against man looks, averaging 2.79 yards per route run and routinely creating separation on overs, posts, and deep sideline routes where his long-stride speed becomes a matchup problem for corners playing press-man leverage. The Lions rank seventh-worst in receiving yards allowed to perimeter receivers and tenth-worst in yards per target allowed, showing regular breakdowns on vertical stems—an area where Watson’s skill set thrives. With Detroit’s defensive front likely forcing Love into quick vertical reads and Watson operating as both the primary deep-shot receiver and the top option against man, the setup strongly favors another red-zone or downfield scoring opportunity in a nationally televised divisional stage where Green Bay must score aggressively to keep pace.

Best Bet: (Lions) Jahmyr Gibbs -160

Jahmyr Gibbs enters Thanksgiving as perhaps the NFL’s most explosive dual-threat back over the last month, coming off a historic performance where he became only the second player in league history (along with LaDainian Tomlinson) to record 200+ rushing yards and 10 receptions in the same game. His acceleration, perimeter speed, and receiving versatility create matchup nightmares for defenses that rely on off-zone structures — which is exactly what Green Bay does. Although the Packers sit middle-of-the-pack in most run-defense metrics (13th-fewest rushing yards allowed per game, ninth-fewest receiving yards allowed to RBs), their tackling efficiency and gap discipline have fluctuated, and Detroit’s offensive line had no issues displacing them in Week 1. Gibbs saw 19 total opportunities in that first matchup, but his role has dramatically expanded since then; he now leads the backfield in snap rate, routes, and explosive-play rate. Expect Ben Johnson to isolate Gibbs against linebackers in space using motion, angle routes, and perimeter toss looks, stressing a defense that can be slow to trigger downhill.

First TD

Longshot (Packers): Emanuel Wilson +1390

Emanuel Wilson profiles as Green Bay’s most logical early-touchdown candidate in this Thanksgiving matchup due to his usage tendencies, Green Bay’s scripting preferences, and Detroit’s defensive profile inside the red zone. When Josh Jacobs missed Week 12, Wilson absorbed a true bell-cow workload — 28 carries, 107 yards, and two rushing touchdowns — showing clearly that Matt LaFleur trusts him in short-yardage and goal-line scenarios. Detroit’s defense, while strong in run-stopping efficiency on early downs, ranks among the league’s most vulnerable units inside the 10-yard line, allowing a high conversion rate on red-zone carries and the sixth-most rushing touchdowns per game to opposing backfields. Green Bay has also leaned heavily on early-game ground attempts when facing aggressive man-coverage defenses like Detroit's (41.7% man, No. 1 in the NFL), using the run game to slow down Aidan Hutchinson and limit Love’s exposure to quick pressure. With Wilson's physical downhill style, decisive burst, and proven short-yardage finishing ability, combined with Detroit’s bottom-tier interior touchdown prevention, he stands out as the strongest probability to punch in the game’s first touchdown, especially if Jacobs remains limited or used sparingly.

Longshot (Lions): Jahmyr Gibbs +375

Jahmyr Gibbs is positioned as one of the strongest first-touchdown candidates on the Thanksgiving slate, and the data backs it up across usage, alignment, matchup, and Detroit’s scoring tendencies. Gibbs’ role has fully consolidated into a feature-back workload, but even more importantly for first-TD bets, he owns the high-leverage touches that decide opening drives. Over the last five weeks, Gibbs leads Detroit in red-zone touches, inside-the-10 touches, and first-read targets on scripted plays—an enormous indicator of how Ben Johnson scripts openers. The Lions have opened five of their last seven games with either Gibbs or Amon-Ra St. Brown as the primary touch-getter on the first series, and Green Bay’s defensive structure fuels Gibbs' style perfectly. The Packers sit bottom-10 in explosive run rate allowed and bottom-12 in yards before contact allowed when facing perimeter zone run concepts, which is exactly how Detroit manufactures chunk plays for Gibbs. Green Bay also ranks 29th in EPA allowed per rush on the first defensive drive of games—a massive tell that opposing offenses are able to dictate early tempo and win the LOS before adjustments. With Detroit’s OL healthy and Gibbs handling 75% of backfield touches last week, plus a consistent role in the passing game against a Packers LB group that struggles in man-match and Tampa-2 hook drops, Gibbs profiles as the most likely Lion to punch in the opening touchdown.

Parlay #1 (Packers) +985

Jordan Love 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs 

Romeo Doubs 'O' 19.5 Yard Longest Reception

Emanuel Wilson ATD

Parlay #2 (Lions) +290

Jared Goff 'O' 241.5 Pass Yards

Jahmyr Gibbs ATD

Amon-Ra St Brown 'O' 6.5 Receptions

QB Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes enters this matchup in one of the strangest stretches of his professional career—just a single total touchdown across his last three games despite still ranking near the top of the league in most efficiency metrics. His performance against Indianapolis was a perfect example of the dichotomy: 352 yards passing at 7.7 YPA, consistently generating explosive throws, but once again unable to convert those longer drives into touchdowns. The Dallas defense presents one of the most unusual profiles Mahomes has faced: they deploy Cover 3 on 37.3% of snaps—the sixth-highest rate—yet the structure has weaknesses that Mahomes has historically exploited. Against Cover 3 in his career he averages 9.18 YPA, an elite +8.2% CPOE, and adds mobility with 10/88 rushing on those dropbacks. Dallas’ issue isn’t yardage prevention—it’s touchdown prevention. They surrender 2.2 passing touchdowns per game, the highest figure in the league, and their back end has allowed explosive pass rates to spike when forced into single-high adjustments. Jalen Hurts showed this last week, producing 289 yards through the air while adding two rushing scores in their attempts to keep linebackers rotated toward the middle of the field. Mahomes is positioned to have one of his cleaner games if Kansas City’s offensive line prevents Dallas’ edge defenders from dictating protections.

Suggested Play:  

'O' 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+150)

RB Kareem Hunt

Kareem Hunt has operated as Kansas City’s most consistent offensive stabilizer during Isaiah Pacheco’s absence, stringing together four straight games with a touchdown and showcasing his trademark contact balance and patience. Against Indianapolis, Hunt logged 30 carries for 104 yards and added 3/26 receiving—an extremely rare workload in today’s league and a testament to how much trust Andy Reid currently has in him. Even with Pacheco set to return, Hunt’s recent production makes it unlikely that Kansas City simply relegates him to a secondary role. The Cowboys’ defensive front is structurally vulnerable in two key areas Hunt can exploit: they allow the 10th-most adjusted yards before contact (2.25) and rank bottom-three in receiving yardage allowed to running backs (45.2 YPG). That combination plays directly into Hunt’s profile as an early-down grinder with soft hands, and should allow Kansas City to maintain backfield versatility regardless of game flow. The Cowboys have held Saquon Barkley and Ashton Jeanty to just 29 combined rushing yards over the past two weeks, but both backs punished them in the pass game due to Dallas’ depth-deficient linebacker group. Hunt’s usage near the goal line—particularly in Reid’s compressed-formation red-zone packages—remains one of the safest touchdown paths of any RB on the slate.

Suggested Play: 

Anytime Touchdown (+122)

WR Rashee Rice

Rashee Rice remains the fulcrum of Kansas City’s passing game, owning the highest target share on the team and functioning as Mahomes’ primary progression read against both zone and middle-of-field open coverages. His 8/141 performance on 12 targets against Indianapolis highlighted exactly what separates him from the rest of the Chiefs’ receiving corps: elite efficiency versus zone, an ability to break first contact, and the capacity to consistently win underneath before converting into intermediate gains. This matchup against Dallas will feature heavy Cover 3, and Rice thrives against that structure, posting 2.84 YPRR, a 27% target-per-route rate, and strong separation metrics at the break point. Dallas allows the eighth-fewest yards to slot receivers, but that number can be misleading—teams rarely challenge them vertically from the slot, whereas Rice’s usage often includes flood concepts, deep crossers, and curl–flat manipulation that stretch the Cowboys’ landmark assignments. With outside receivers facing Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland, Rice is set up for yet another heavy-volume outing as Mahomes’ safest outlet when pressure arrives.

Suggested Play:

'O' 6.5 Receptions (-120)

TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce was quieter than expected against the Colts, finishing with 4/43 on six targets, but the usage profile remains elite: a 78% route share, significant middle-of-field involvement, and a team-leading red-zone matchup advantage most weeks. Dallas presents an interesting configuration for tight ends—Cover 3 creates seams between the hook-curl and deep-middle defenders, and Kelce has historically shredded those voids, averaging 2.84 yards per route run against that look. The Cowboys allow the 12th-most yards and eighth-most receptions to tight ends, often because their linebackers struggle to carry vertical stems or mid-crossers. Brock Bowers’ 7/72 line two weeks ago is a telling indicator of how Dallas handles athletic TEs capable of manipulating leverage. Kelce’s chemistry with Mahomes in scramble-drill situations is especially relevant here—Dallas’ pass rush generates chaos, but Mahomes’ mobility creates extended plays, and Kelce’s improvisation remains unmatched league-wide. With Kansas City frequently stalling in the red zone the past month, it’s reasonable to expect a correction in usage around the goal line, especially early in the game, and Kelce is the likeliest beneficiary.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+120)

QB Dak Prescott

What a come-from-behind win last week for Dak and the Cowboys over the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles. Prescott threw for 354 passing yards, which is the second highest total of the season against a tough Eagles defence. He'll see another tough defence in the Chiefs, who allow the 12th fewest completions per game (20.1) and the fifth fewest pass attempts (28.8), the seventh fewest passing yards (203.6) and the fourth lowest passing TDs (1.0) per game to opposing QBs. Kansas City sit near league averages in overall man (25.5%) and zone usage (69.6%), providing no edge either way. However, no team runs Cover 0 at a higher rate, dialling it up 8.2% of their plays. They also run Cover 2 at the ninth highest rate (18.5%) and the 10th most Cover 4 (16.3%). Against Cover 0, Prescott has struggled, completing just 46.7% of his throws on 15 dropbacks — the 11th most league-wide — producing the ninth lowest yards per attempt (2.53), but a decent 93.1 QBR. Against Cover 2, Prescott has faced the eighth most dropbacks (64), completing 73.8% of his passes, an 8.21 yards per attempt with a 96.4 QBR. Against Cover 4, Prescott has the 11th highest completion percentage (73.3%) with the sixth highest yards per attempt (8.07), but a low 69 (nice) QBR. Prescott doesn't use his legs much, but he might have success with it this week as the Chiefs allow the sixth most rushing yards (23.5) per game to opposing QBs. But that's not his game. He has just four games this season where he's had double-digit rushing yards. It all comes down to what Dak does with his arm. He might have a successful day, but I can't see it coming with much volume. Prescott has completed 25+ passes just once in his last five games.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott u24.5 Pass Completions (-120)

RB Javonte Williams

What more can you say about Javonte at this point? He just continues to get it done on the ground, posting 87 rushing yards on 20 attempts. This week, he'll get one of the most feared run defences in the league in the Chiefs. Kansas City allow the fewest rush attempts (17.4) and the fourth fewest rushing yards (73.3) per game to opposing RBs. They rely heavily upon zone concept run defence, running it at 50.4% compared to just 28.3% man/gap. And that's to the benefit of them, as they allow a 4.05 yards per carry against zone and 4.29 against man/gap. That doesn't suit up well for Williams, as he is much better against man/gap, averaging 5.66 yards per carry, compared to a 4.3 yards per carry against zone concept. Even through the air, the Chiefs have minimized opposing RBs, allowing the 13th fewest receptions (4.2) and the 16th fewest receiving yards (30.9) to the position. It's been a phenomenal year for Williams this season, but that doesn't mean he hasn't had his down weeks. And this matchup projects to be one of those rare down weeks for Williams.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams u78.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-111)

WR CeeDee Lamb

Is CeeDee Lamb dipping his gloves in melted butter before every series? Because he's had a drop issue these past two weeks, dropping three balls over that span. His volume is still encouraging though, with 11 targets last week, but he was only able to corral four of those balls. The Chiefs allow the 15th fewest receptions per game (10.9) but are even better at limiting yardage, allowing the second fewest receiving yards per game (117.4). Unfortunately, the Chiefs run around league average in both man coverage and zone coverage, so there's no edge there. However, we can look at their top three most-used coverages to see if Lamb has an edge in that regard. Against Cover 0, Lamb has seen limited but aggressive involvement, catching one pass on three targets for five yards on six routes, but earning his highest target share of the three coverages listed at 27.3%. Cover 2 has been much more successful for Lamb; he has eight receptions on nine targets for 178 yards on 43 routes, with a 17.3% target share. Against Cover 4, Lamb's numbers aren't as great, logging just five receptions on 12 targets for 56 yards across 35 routes. However, he is still the most looked at receiver against the look, garnering a 32.4% target share. Lamb sees most of his work from out wide (67.2%) this season. Against outside receivers, the Chiefs are targeted at the third-lowest rate (110), allowing the 14th-lowest yards per reception (12.87) but the third-highest catch rate (68.2%). With all that in mind, it seems like a bit of a meh matchup for Lamb. Cowboys HC Brian Schottenheimer said earlier this week that Lamb "has that look in his eye". However, it won't be as easy to do so, as the Chiefs have run 2-High at the 5th highest rate this year, and Lamb averages 2.28 YPRR against 2-HI, but he has only caught a concerning 21/39 targets for a 53.8% catch rate and averages a 13.4 aDoT on these targets. His targets of late are undeniable, but will he be able to bring them in what projects to be a tough matchup coverage-wise.

Suggested pick:

CeeDee Lamb u6.5 Receptions (-105)

WR George Pickens

Nobody will ever say it, but Pickens has been the Cowboys' best receiver even when Lamb returned. He was perfect last week, catching all nine of his targets for 146 receiving yards and a TD. But as we've covered, this might be his toughest test of late. Against Cover 0, Pickens has been heavily targeted but completely unproductive: zero receptions on five targets on 12 routes, despite earning a massive 29.4% target share. But those numbers improve against Cover 2, where Pickens has five receptions on seven targets for 82 receiving yards on 56 routes. It's not as good of a target share (14.3%), but more productive nonetheless. Cover 4 will be his best output: Pickens has caught all 12 of his targets for 174 yards across 48 routes, earning a 26.7% target share. Like Lamb, Pickens does most of his work on the outside, running 88.2% of his routes from that alignment. We've covered how the Chiefs have had success limiting the position; however, with the way Pickens is rolling right now, and Lamb consistently drawing the most difficult matchups, it typically opens up the field for Pickens, to which he's finding massive success lately. Pickens has logged 75+ receiving yards in six straight weeks, averaging 116.2 receiving yards per game. Until it slows down, you've just gotta ride the hot hand.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens o74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson had his best week since Lamb's return, catching five of six targets for 60 receiving yards. He'll look to roll that over this week against the Chiefs, who allow the eighth-fewest receptions (4.7) and the 14th-fewest receiving yards (49.6) per game to the position. Against Cover 0, Ferguson has been minimally involved with just one reception on one target for a single yard across seven routes, earning only a 5.9% target share. But teams typically don't see Cover 0 too often, and when they do, it's hard for tight ends to get the targets as they mostly run on the inside. Against Cover 2, Ferguson becomes one of the most reliable options in the Cowboys’ passing game. He leads the team in usage with 16 receptions on 20 targets for 126 yards on 52 routes, commanding a 32.3% target share. Against Cover 4, Ferguson has been perfect on his targets, catching all four of them for 30 yards, but his 8.9% target share indicate he really just isn't used against the coverage. With Lamb commanding more routes on the outside, Ferguson lines up in the slot on 53.5% of his routes. Against slot receivers, the Chiefs are targeted at the 14th-highest rate, allowing the 10th-highest catch rate (72.6%) but the second fewest yards per reception (7.82). However, Ferguson will be able to exploit the Cowboys in a specific coverage. Dallas run play action (31.25%) to which the Chiefs allow a league high 2.92 yards per route run when facing play action. When the Cowboys run play action, Ferguson leads the team by far in receptions (29) and a team-high 31.7% 1st Read Rate. The next closest is Lamb with 16. Ferguson switches up his alignment on playaction, running 75% of his routes inline. The Chiefs give up an insane 5.47 yards per route run and 17.87 yards per reception on 15 receptions to inline receivers. Ferguson should be in for a heavy volume day, especially when the Cowboys take advantage of the Chiefs in play action.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson o34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Jake Ferguson 50+ Receiving Yards (+225)

Best Bet
Lean 
Score Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet: (Chiefs) Kareem Hunt +122

Kareem Hunt has operated as Kansas City’s most consistent offensive stabilizer during Isaiah Pacheco’s absence, stringing together four straight games with a touchdown and showcasing his trademark contact balance and patience. Against Indianapolis, Hunt logged 30 carries for 104 yards and added 3/26 receiving—an extremely rare workload in today’s league and a testament to how much trust Andy Reid currently has in him. Even with Pacheco set to return, Hunt’s recent production makes it unlikely that Kansas City simply relegates him to a secondary role. The Cowboys’ defensive front is structurally vulnerable in two key areas Hunt can exploit: they allow the 10th-most adjusted yards before contact (2.25) and rank bottom-three in receiving yardage allowed to running backs (45.2 YPG). That combination plays directly into Hunt’s profile as an early-down grinder with soft hands, and should allow Kansas City to maintain backfield versatility regardless of game flow. The Cowboys have held Saquon Barkley and Ashton Jeanty to just 29 combined rushing yards over the past two weeks, but both backs punished them in the pass game due to Dallas’ depth-deficient linebacker group. Hunt’s usage near the goal line—particularly in Reid’s compressed-formation red-zone packages—remains one of the safest touchdown paths of any RB on the slate.

Best Pick: (Cowboys): Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+210)

It was tough to pick a TD scorer against this Chiefs defence as the Chiefs don't really allow too many to any specific position group. They average 0.54 TDs per game to RBs, 0.64 to WRs, and 0.27 to TEs. So, we're just taking the guy who has the best-looking matchup to find the end zone. Ferguson leads the Cowboys in receptions (4) and targets (6) in the red zone this season.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Chiefs): Travis Kelce +824

Travis Kelce enters this matchup against Dallas positioned for one of his highest-leverage scoring opportunities of the season. Even in a relatively quiet game against Indianapolis, he still drew 6 targets and ran a route on 78% of dropbacks, maintaining his central role in the structure of Kansas City’s early-script passing concepts. The Cowboys play Cover 3 on 37.3% of snaps, and Kelce has historically shredded that look, averaging 2.84 yards per route run and a .23 target-per-route rate across 83 routes. The most important indicator for a first-touchdown angle, however, is how defenses treat Kansas City inside the 20. Dallas has allowed the most passing touchdowns per game (2.2) to opposing quarterbacks and has shown consistent early-drive vulnerability, particularly up the seams and on crossers—areas where Kelce is the preferred option when Mahomes wants to settle the offense and calm early pressure. With Pacheco returning but likely on a managed workload, red-zone volume projects to remain pass-heavy, and Mahomes has historically leaned on Kelce to open scoring drives when facing aggressive pass rushes. Add in the Cowboys’ recent struggles against tight ends—7/72 to Bowers two weeks ago—and all signs point to Kansas City designing an early possession specifically to isolate Kelce against a rotated safety.

Best Pick: (Cowboys) CeeDee Lamb First TD (+900)

If Schottenheimer is right and CeeDee Lamb does have that look in his eyes, then Lamb could be the one to break it early and grab the first TD in this game.

Parlay #1 (Chiefs) +916

Kareem Hunt ATD

Patrick Mahomes 'O' 2.5 Pass TDs

Rashee Rice 'O' 6.5 Receptions

Parlay 2: (Cowboys) +300 odds on bet365

Jake Ferguson 5+ Receptions

Jake Ferguson 50+ Receiving Yards

QB Joe Burrow

Burrow will make his return on Thanksgiving for the first time since his turf toe injury he suffered in week 2. Burrow threw for just 113 yards in his only full start this season against the Browns. Last season, Burrow averaged 289.3 passing yards per game, 7.54 YPA and a 70.6% completion rate. He threw 43 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 19^th in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 9^th most passing yards per game (230). Baltimore has the 13^th lowest pressure rate on the season (36.2%) but they have improved as of late pressuring at a 39.9% rate since week 7. Burrow averaged 7.61 YPA and a 56.3% completion rate when pressured last season compared to 7.52 YPA and a 75.2% completion rate when not pressured. The Ravens have played single-high at the 4^th highest rate in the NFL (60.4%), however, the Bengals offense has seen the highest rate of two-high (62%) because of the deep threat of Chase and Higgins. Higgins will be out in this game, but Chase will be back from a 1-game suspension. In the 2 head-to-head matchups last season, the Ravens played two-high at a 55.3% rate against them. 6 of the last 8 QBs have gone over their respective passing yards line against the Ravens. The Bengals are 7-point underdogs, and this game has a massive 51.5 implied total. Joe may have some rust early but expect him to have a big overall game Thanksgiving night.

Suggested Pick:

Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-118)

RB Chase Brown

In the first 6 weeks of the season, Chase Brown averaged 33.7 rushing yards per game on 2.73 YPC. In the past 5, he’s averaging 84.8 rushing yards per game on 5.97 YPC. Samaje Perine, who has been practicing in full this week, is likely to return after being sidelined with a high-ankle sprain since week 9. Since week 9, Brown has had a bell cow role, accounting for 80% of team rush attempts and he’s run a 79.2% route participation rate. From weeks 1 to 8, Brown accounted for 63% of team rush attempts and had only a 44.2% route participation rate. Perine will likely be eased into action in his first game back, but on the margin, we should see Brown’s role diminish. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 13^th in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 13^th most rushing yards per game on the season. Since week 7, the Ravens rush defense has been better, allowing the 9^th fewest yards per game. The Ravens are allowing the 2^nd fewest YPC against zone concept (3.37), compared to the 3^rd most YPC against man/gap (5.45). Brown has a 50-50 split between the 2 rush concepts. He’s averaging 4.37 YPC and a 47.9% success rate in zone concept, compared to 4.31 YPC and a 52.8% success rate in man/gap. In terms of the receiving matchup, the Ravens have allowed the 8^th most receiving yards per game to RB. As mentioned earlier, Brown’s role will likely diminish with the return of Perine. I’ll pass due to the uncertainty around Perine’s role in his return. The Bengals are a touchdown underdog, and I expect them to be extremely pass heavy. I lean under on his rushing.

Suggested Pick:

Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

WR Ja’Marr Chase

Chase will return on Thanksgiving after missing last week after getting suspended due to his spitting incident. Chase is averaging 86.1 receiving yards per game, 2.27 YPRR and has been targeted on 30% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 40.7%. Joe Burrow will return for the first time since he suffered his turf toe injury in week 2. Tee Higgins is out with an injury. Last season with Higgins off the field, Chase averaged 2.22 YPRR, negative splits compared to his 2.54 YPRR with Higgins on the field. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 19^th in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 9^th most receiving yards per game (230). They are allowing the 11^th fewest YPRR (1.82) specifically to wide + slot alignment. The Ravens have played single-high at the 4^th highest rate in the NFL (60.4%); however, the Bengals offense has seen the highest rate of two-high (62%) because of the deep threat of Chase and Higgins. In the 2 head-to-head matchups last season, the Ravens played two-high at a 55.3% rate against them. Chase averages 2.02 YPRR and 38% TPRR against single-high, compared to 2.42 YPRR and 25% TPRR against two-high this season. Chase has had 193 and 264 receiving yards in his last 2 matchups against the Ravens, both last season. Higgins didn’t play in the most recent H2H, where Chase was targeted 17 times, leading to that 264 receiving yard game. The Bengals are 7-point underdogs with a 51.5 implied total, I like Chase to eat!

Suggested Pick:

Over 92.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

WR Andrei Iosivas

Last week in a game Higgins left early with an injury and Chase was suspended, Iosivas led the team in receiving. He ran a route on 84.6% of drop backs, catching 4 of 7 targets for 61 yards. Higgins is out but Chase will return, Iosivas will operate as Burrow’s number 2 WR. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 19^th in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 9^th most receiving yards per game (230). They are allowing the 11^th fewest YPRR (1.82) specifically to wide + slot alignment. The Ravens have played man coverage at a top 5 rate this season (35%). Iosivas averages 1.47 YPRR and 15% TPRR against man coverage. That compares to 0.70 YPRR and 12% TPRR against zone. I lean over at just a 32.5 receiving yard line and the Bengals a touchdown underdog with a 51.5 implied total.

Suggested Pick:

Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Mike Gesicki

Last week in the first game off IR, Mike Gesicki led the TE group running a route on 64.1% of drop backs. Noah Fant had just a 15.4% route rate and Tanner Hudson was at 28.2%. Gesicki caught 4 of 6 targets for 35 yards. The Bengals use Gesicki as a larger receiver with Higgins out. With Higgins off the field last season, Gesicki averaged 2.05 YPRR and was targeted on 26% of his routes. He’ll face a Ravens defense that is middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed to TE. In this same matchup last season without Higgins, Gesicki caught 4 of 9 targets for 30 yards. The Ravens have played man coverage at a top 5 rate this season (35%). Gesicki averages 0.20 YPRR against man coverage this season compared to 1.15 YPRR against zone. However, that’s a small sample size considering his lesser role with his health and Higgins playing more this season. Last season, he averaged 2.51 YPRR against man compared to 1.30 YPRR against zone. I like his receptions line as he’s been targeted at least 6 times in 4 straight when Higgins doesn’t play.

Suggested Pick:

Over 3.5 Receptions (-135)

QB Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson enters this matchup in an uncharacteristic slump, failing to account for a touchdown in back-to-back games and falling below 8 total points in both. His passing efficiency remains inconsistent, completing 13/23 passes for 153 yards (6.7 YPA) last week while adding just 11 rushing yards — a concerning trend given he’s averaging a career-low 29.6 rushing yards per game. The drop-off in explosive rushing has been tied to Baltimore’s shift toward more designed passing and increased interior pressure allowed by the offensive line. However, this matchup brings a notable schematic edge. Cincinnati plays Cover 3 at the eighth-highest rate (34.3%), and Jackson has historically shredded that structure, averaging 11.49 YPA with an elite 19.9% CPOE and efficient scrambling lanes when forced to pull the ball down. The Bengals have struggled mightily against quarterbacks all season, allowing the third-most passing yards per game (266.9) and the second-most passing TDs per game (2.1). While Baltimore’s recent offensive issues are real, Jackson posted 638 passing yards, 8 TDs, and 88 rushing yards across two matchups with Cincinnati last year, and the defensive metrics suggest another ceiling-type opportunity if he’s willing to push the ball vertically again.

Suggested Play:

'O' 2.5 Passing TDs (+105)

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry continues to be a foundational piece of Baltimore’s offense, logging 20+ touches in six straight games and scoring twice last week on 21/64 rushing while adding 24 yards through the air. His workload remains game-script dependent, and with Baltimore entering as 7-point home favorites, he’s positioned for another 18–22 carry performance — similar to his usage across previous Ravens victories. What elevates Henry’s outlook is Cincinnati’s current status as one of the softest run defenses in the league. They rank dead last in rushing yards allowed per game (131.1), second in RB receiving yards allowed (45.9), and seventh-worst in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.39). Their defensive front has been particularly vulnerable to power and gap-scheme runs, which aligns perfectly with how Baltimore deploys Henry on downhill concepts. He torched this defense for 160 yards and two touchdowns last season, and the Bengals’ run fits have only regressed since. This is a matchup where Baltimore can assert physical dominance, especially inside the red zone.

Suggested Play:

'O' 87.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers remains the most reliable wide receiver in Baltimore’s offense, delivering 58 yards last week while commanding a 26% target share and an elite 93% route participation. Flowers has cleared 64+ scrimmage yards in nine of eleven games, functioning as both Lamar Jackson’s first-read option and the primary schemed-touch player. Against the Bengals, he draws a coverage profile that he has historically excelled against — Cincinnati runs Cover 3 on 34.3% of snaps, and Flowers averages 3.07 yards per route run and a strong 27% target rate versus that structure. The Bengals have limited perimeter efficiency overall (12th-fewest receiving yards allowed to outside WRs), but their vulnerability lies in allowing explosive plays off intermediate crossing patterns and deep-over concepts, which are key staples of Flowers' usage. He posted 7/111 and 4/34 in two matchups last season and will again function as the primary separator against a secondary that has allowed the seventh-most completions of 20+ yards.

Suggested Play:

'O' 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews posted his quietest outing in over a month last week, managing a single 9-yard catch while battling heavy bracket coverage and a reduced route share. However, his matchup this week is arguably the best possible for a tight end. The Bengals are giving up the most receiving yards per game to tight ends (87.5), the most receptions per game (6.9), and were just shredded by Hunter Henry for 7/115/1. Cincinnati’s defensive structure repeatedly isolates their linebackers and safeties in space versus tight ends when playing Cover 3 — a coverage Andrews has excellent historical production against, averaging 1.23 YPRR and maintaining a 18% target rate despite consistent defensive focus. With Baltimore expected to face multiple red-zone trips due to Cincinnati’s defensive struggles, Andrews should return to his high-leverage role, especially in scoring areas where Jackson turns to him most often.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+102)

The Ravens run game will be successful and will open up a ton for Lamar in the passing game. Lamar is a beast and I expect them to dominate against a team who have a lot of question marks coming into this game

Best Bet Ravens -6.5 -150
Lean Under 50.5 -120
Score Prediction Bengals 17 Ravens 33

Anytime TD Scorer

Mike Gesicki (Bengals) +400

Gesicki was targeted 6 times in his return from IR last week and ran a healthy 68.4% of dropbacks. With Tee Higgins out, Gesicki will operate a lot out of the as the Bengals like to have a bigger receiving option. Gesicki had 2 TDs last season in a game without Higgins. I like this price!

Mark Andrews (Ravens) +102

Mark Andrews posted his quietest outing in over a month last week, managing a single 9-yard catch while battling heavy bracket coverage and a reduced route share. However, his matchup this week is arguably the best possible for a tight end. The Bengals are giving up the most receiving yards per game to tight ends (87.5), the most receptions per game (6.9), and were just shredded by Hunter Henry for 7/115/1. Cincinnati’s defensive structure repeatedly isolates their linebackers and safeties in space versus tight ends when playing Cover 3 — a coverage Andrews has excellent historical production against, averaging 1.23 YPRR and maintaining a 18% target rate despite consistent defensive focus. With Baltimore expected to face multiple red-zone trips due to Cincinnati’s defensive struggles, Andrews should return to his high-leverage role, especially in scoring areas where Jackson turns to him most often.

First TD Scorer

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) +800

Chase went off last matchup against the Ravens without Tee Higgins, with 264 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Joe Burrow is back and I expect him to pepper Ja’Marr. I like the Bengals to have a pass heavy approach and Chase is the top option to score first.

Derrick Henry (Ravens) +450

Derrick Henry enters this matchup as the centerpiece of Baltimore’s run-first identity, and the setup against Cincinnati gives him one of the strongest touchdown scripts of the entire Week 13 slate. Henry has handled 20+ touches in six straight games while averaging 18.3 carries in victories, and Baltimore enters this matchup as a 7-point home favorite — exactly the type of game environment that has historically produced early-drive scoring opportunities for him. The Bengals continue to profile as one of the NFL’s most vulnerable front sevens, giving up the seventh-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.39), the most rushing yards per game (131.1), and the second-most receiving yards per game to running backs (45.9). Their defensive line has struggled to hold interior gaps and has been particularly soft inside the 10-yard line, allowing short-area success rates nearly 10% higher than league average. Henry gashed this defense for 31/160/2 on the ground across two matchups last season, and Baltimore’s blocking scheme — heavily gap-influenced with downhill pullers — aligns perfectly with where Cincinnati has been most exploitable. With Baltimore likely leaning on the run early to steady the offense after back-to-back disappointing outings from Lamar Jackson, Henry projects as the likeliest Raven to touch the ball inside the 5-yard line, giving him clear first-score upside in a matchup that heavily favors his usage, efficiency, and touchdown probability.

Parlay #1 (Bengals) +323

Joe Burrow 250+ Passing Yards
Ja’Marr Chase 90+ Receiving Yards
Chase Brown Under 54.5 Rushing Yards

Parlay #2 (Ravens) +400

Lamar Jackson 'O' 2.5 Pass TDs

Zay Flowers 'O' 57.5 Receiving Yards
Derrick Henry ATD