Falcons Defensive Approach

Last game without Mike Hughes
Zone 84.8%
Man 12.1%
2-HI 60.6% 1-HI 39.4% 

Cover 4 (45.5%)
Cover 3 (27.3%) 
Cover 1 (12.1%)
Cover 2 (12.1%) 

Falcons Defense vs Alignment Cover 4

Wideout 
2.32 YPRR #24/32
Rec 19 #29/32
17.32 YPR #30/32

Slot 
1.22 YPRR #6/32
Rec 18 #27/32
7.67 YPR #9/32

Inline 
0.68 YPRR #3/32
Rec 5 #19/32
5.60 YPR #4/32

Backfield 
0.82 YPRR
Rec 11 #24/32
4.45 YPR #10/32

Hughes played in 92.0% of snaps and this will be the 2nd straight game without him and with Divine Deablo. I think they keep this defensive approach. 

 

QB Matthew Stafford 

Matthew Stafford stats vs Coverages 

Cover 4
43/77 55.8% CMP% 70.1 QBR 6.45 YPA

Cover 3
125/170 73.5% CMP% 114.2 QBR 6.72 9.14

Cover 1
72/114 63.2% CMP% 112.6 QBR 8.27 YPA

Cover 2
35/50 70% CMP% 102.3 QBR 8.84 YPA 

As you see the Falcons ran Cover 4 45.5% last week and this is where Stafford has been less effective and I think he is going to see it a ton today which could possibly hurt his overall consistency throughout this game. The Falcons are wa good defensive Cover 4 team as well but where they are most vulnerable is against the wideout allowing CHUNK gains. The Falcons hold a 36% pressure rate the last 5 games which is the 9th LOWEST rate. Stafford is going for that MVP as well so best believe these boys will be locked in today. With the Falcons giving up a ton of chunk on dropbacks that means less pass attempts. Give me under pass attempts here as he is under this line in 11/16 games L2 seasons when winning by 3+. 

Suggested Pick
Under 33.5 Pass Attempts -125

 

RB Blake Corum 

Going to keep this one short 

Here are the Falcons rushing stats
4.07 YPC
3.6% EXP%
YBC 1.77
YAC 2.30

Corum has been REALLY good and I like his rushing yards here today. If you are parlaying stuff together make this be your last option 

Suggested Pick 
40+ Rush Yds -155

 

RB Kyren Williams

In his only game last week without Adams he saw a SPIKE in usage in the passing game running 62.1% RTE% against Cover 3 & 4 while prior to this game that % sat at 47.4%. Last week on 18 routes ran against those coverage he was targeted 5x which was 2nd on the team in target%. Now the only concern here is how tough this Falcons team is against backfield receivers with LB Divine Deablo allowing the LOWEST YPRR 0.85 and the LOWEST Receptions 26. This matchup is so tough making this a no play.

Suggested Pick Pass 

 

WR Puka Nacua

Puka gets a ridiculous 108.5 receiving yards line today and this year against Cover 3/4 he holds a 34.3% TGT% and 4.80 YPRR. Last week without Adam’s he ran 13 routes against Cover 4 getting targeted 3x running out of the Slot 61.5% which is actually where the Falcons allow 1.22 YPRR against Slot receivers 6th best when in Cover 4. Against Cover 3 Puka saw a 42.9% TGT% running 12 routes getting targeted 6x averaging 6.67 YPRR tuning out of the wideout in all 12 Dropbacks. The Falcons when in Cover 3 have allowed 1.52 YPRR to wideouts #2/32 and just a 55.8% CR%. I personally think this 108.5 line is ridiculously high with a possible blowout which =‘s less opportunities 

Suggested Pick 
Under 108.5 Rec Yds -112

 

WR Konata Mumpfield 

We have great confidence that the Falcons are going to throw out a TON of Cover 4 around 35/50% of the time. They will also Run Cover 3 at a decent rate as well as we are expecting Cover 3/4 on roughly 70% of Staffords dropbacks. Now against Cover 4 when LB Divine Deablo has played they have been EXTREMELY vulnerable to strictly wideout. Just look at the stats

Wideout 
2.32 YPRR #24/32
Rec 19 #29/32
17.32 YPR #30/32

Slot 
1.22 YPRR #6/32
Rec 18 #27/32
7.67 YPR #9/32

Inline 
0.68 YPRR #3/32
Rec 5 #19/32
5.60 YPR #4/32

Backfield 
0.82 YPRR
Rec 11 #24/32
4.45 YPR #10/32

That is PERFECT news for Mumpfield because last week he ran 49% of his teams dropbacks and running 21/25 routes out of the wideout. Now specifically against Cover 4 he ran 53.3% of his teams routes and on 8 routes he was targeted a ridiculous 4x for an aDOT of 14.5! On those 8 routes he ran 6 In/Dig routes. 

Suggested Pick 
Konata Mumpfield ALT Rec Yds
Over 15.5 Long Reception -115
Over 23.5 Rec Yds -120
30+ +130
40+ +220
60+ +540

 

TE Colby Parkinson 

He ran the 2nd most routes on the team last week without Adams and he was targeted in just 4/36 routes catching 2 for 21 yards. Not only that but against Cover 4 he ran 13 routes getting targeted just 1x which was incomplete. Against Cover 3 he was targeted on 3/12 routes, getting 21 receiving yards, getting a 42.9% 1st Read rate, and running out of the inline 91.7%. The Falcons when in Cover 3 against inline receivers allow 1.47 YPRR which is the 5th best. Not the best matchup for Parkinson to exploit. 

Suggested Pick
Under 3.5 Receptions -112
Under 33.5 Rec Yds -110

 

Rams Defensive Approach

Rams Defense
Man 18.2% #25/32
Zone 77.1% #10/32 

L5 games without Safety Kamren Kinchens
Cover 3 (29.8%) 1.53 YPRR #11/32
Cover 4 (22.2%) 1.33 YPRR #13/32
Cover 2 (16.2%) 1.70 YPRR #20/32
Cover 1 (14.6%) 1.08 YPRR #6/32
2-HI 55.1% 1-HI 44.9% 

Rams Most vulnerable to by COV
Cover 1,2,3,4

Wideout
2.00 YPRR #22/32
Rec 35 #26/32

Slot
1.23 YPRR #1/32
Rec 22 #14/32

Inline
1.93 YPRR #19/32
Rec 12 #18/32

Backfield
1.78 YPRR #24/32
Rec 20 #28/32

 

QB Kirk Cousins 

Above is what the Rams do defensively and here I will break down in this is a good schematic matchup on what he is expected to see and if there are any betting edges to take advantage of. 

Kirk Cousins stats vs Coverages 

Cover 3
38/69 63.3% CMP% 84.1 QBR 7.35 YPA

Cover 4
25/36 69.4% CMP% 85.6 QBR 6.72 YPA

Cover 2

28/39 71.8% CMP% 67.4 QBR 6.44 YPA

Cover 1 

21/43 48.8% CMP% 86.4 QBR 6.74 YPA

These numbers are not the best but there is not a coverage so bad that will force the Rams to change up their defensive approach. They will do what they have been doing all season, especially what they have been doing as of late which is throwing out either Cover 1,2,3,4 (82.2%). 

During this stretch the Rams without Safety Quentin Lake the Rams have allowed the 5th highest passing rate over expected while pressuring the QB 40.4% ranking #11/32. They also have allowed 

Pass Yds (237.6) #21/32
YPA (6.87) #17/32
QBR (89.9) #16/32
Sack % (7.1%) #11/22

What’s crazy is during this stretch the Rams have allowed a -5.2% completion% over expected which is the LOWEST rate of any team indicating some of these completions teams have been getting on the Rams are not sustainable. Cousins has been getting kept clean as his last 174 DB’s he has been pressured 32.2% but that will be the key for this Rams defense tonight because look at these splits 

Kept Clean
87-117 74.4% CMP% 104.7 QBR 7.54 YPA

Pressured
16-48 33.3% CMP% 52.7 QBR 5.90 YPA

Rams have blitzed on just 24.24% of dropbacks over the last 5 games and when they have they have allowed a 116.1 QBR so that is not something they can rely on to cause pressure. On non blitzes Rams have still been able to create havoc at times. On non-blitzes Cousins is pressured just 29.5%. Cousins has had some really easy matchups though when is comes to pressure rate as 5/6 games are teams ranked #19+. In the 1 matchup against the Seahawks who ranks #8 Cousins was pressured 21.4% so they have proven they can keep him clean in bad matchups. Rams rank #7 in pressure rate on the season. It simply comes down to how often the Rams can cause havoc in the backfield and if they do that Cousins will struggle. If not, Cousins will have a decent game. 

Suggested Pick: Pass

 

This total just feels way too high for the Rams. Stafford has been inconsistent against Cover 4. They have success but the game script for 31+ points seems unlikely 

Best Bets: Rams Team Total Under 30.5 -145
Lean: Under 50.5 -140
Score Prediction Rams 24 Falcons 20

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet 

(ATL) Drake London +165
Rams over the last 5 games without Safety Kamren Kinchens they have ran Cover 1 or 3 when opponents are in the Redzone 72.8% and this year London in the 8 games with Mooney,Pitts he has had 5 of the team 8 receptions inside the 20. 

(LAR) Puka Nacua -145
I mean the guy has 108.5 Rec Yds line today. He will get a redzone look why not early.

Longshot: (LAR) Konata Mumpfield +320
Can get that deep ball where the Falcons are weak

 

1st Touchdown: 

Best Bet: (LAR) Puka Nacua
I mean the guy has 108.5 Rec Yds line today. He will get a redzone look why not early.

Longshot: (LAR) Konata Mumpfield +1800
Can get that deep ball early

SGP #1 (+275) Fanduel
K.Mumpfield 30+ Rec Yds 
Under 50.5 Points 

SGP #2 (+1154) Fanduel
K.Mumpfield 30+ Rec Yds 
Under 50.5 Points 
Drake London TD 

SGP #3 MEGA LOTTO (+6782) Fanduel
K.Mumpfield 40+ Rec Yds 
Blake Corum 40+ Rush Yds
Blake Curum TD 
Drake London TD 
Konata Mumpfield TD

QB C.J. Stroud
Not only did Stroud fail to take advantage of a good matchup last week against the Raiders, but he didn’t pass the eye test either. He completed 23 passes on 35 attempts for 187 yards and 1 passing touchdown. He added 4 carries for zero yards. He was pretty inaccurate as a thrower in this game, even when he had time to throw. On the season Stroud has completed 243 passes on 372 attempts (65% completion rate) for 2,628 yards, 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He’s averaging a 8.03 aDOT, 7.06 yards per attempt with a 39.14% pressure rate. The line continues to struggle to pass protect, but Stroud still only has a 5.49% sack rate, thanks to his mobility, and a 2.69% turnover-worthy throw rate this season. His pass catchers have helped him with only a 1.88% drop rate. This matchup is going to be tougher for Stroud. LAC has allowed the 5th lowest yards per pass attempt (6.5) and 2nd lowest touchdown rate (3.1%) to opposing quarterbacks. That’s not great for Stroud, who only averaged 5.3 yards per attempt in a better matchup last week and has only thrown for multiple touchdowns four times this season. I think we could see Stroud use his legs in this game, as he tends to when passing lanes are clogged up.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 10.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
‘U’ 224.5 Passing Yards (-110)
'U' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-154)

 

RB Woody Marks
Marks should return this week after missing last week with an ankle injury. He’s logged full practices since Tuesday. Nick Chubb and Jawhar Jordan will also be healthy, but Marks should regain lead back duties. Marks has played in 14 games this season, accumulating 167 carries for 584 yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns. He’s only averaged 3.5 yards per carry and a 3.6% explosive run rate, likely thanks to poor offensive line play. His 42.5% success rate is certainly on the lower side and his 1.98 yards after contact per attempt is behind both Nick Chubb and Jawhar Jordan. Last week we saw Jordan outsnap Nick Chubb 46% to 33% and out touched him 20 to 7. It looks like Jordan should slot into the number two role in this offense. LAC has not faced a lot of rushing attempts per game this season (19 - third fewest), but they have allowed the 10th highest yards per carry (4.5) to opposing running backs and the 10th highest explosive run rate (5.4%). Marks and his fellow running mates are likely a pass for me. Marks should get his job back, but how does the split work out?

Suggested Pick
PASS

 

WR Nico Collins
Collins finished last week with 4 catches for 59 yards (lead team) on 9 targets. It’s an underwhelming statline, but it could have been much bigger. Stroud missed Collins on multiple throws. What is great to see is that Collins has 8+ targets in three of his last four games and eight of his last ten games. He’s clearly Stroud’s top target both on the field and near the endzone. Collins is the first read on just about 30% of plays and owns 33% of the team yardage share. LAC plays a lot of zone (7th highest rate) and Collins is targeted at the 12th highest rate amongst wide receivers. However, Collins has been more productive against man (29.7% target share and 3.3 yards per route) than zone (24.3% and 2.0) this season. As a big deep threat receiver with volume, Collins could still make the most of this matchup. We saw similar types have success against this defense recently: George Pickens (7 catches for 130 yards, TD) and A.J. Brown (6 for 100). I’ll look to back Collins here or pass.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Jayden Higgins
Higgins is coming off another disappointing week with just a single catch for 16 yards on 3 targets. He was outperformed by slot man, Christian Kirk (3 for 37 on 5 targets), but still saw the field more. Over the past three weeks, Higgins only has five catches for 55 yards. On the season, Jayden has 37 catches on 59 targets (62.7% catch rate) for 414 yards and 4 touchdowns. He owns a 11.3% target rate, 11.2 yards per receptions and 2.43 yards after the catch per reception. He’s only the 1st read on 13.1% of snaps. The Chargers have put the clamps on outside wide receivers, allowing the 7th fewest yards per game (86.9) and third lowest yards per target (7.09). Higgins plays outside on most of his snaps (~80%). This isn’t a spot I can back him.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
‘U’ 2.5 Receptions (+100)

 

TE Dalton Schultz
Schultz tied running back Jawhar Jordan in receptions last week with 5. He only managed to turn that into 39 yards in the close win against the Raiders. Backup tight end, Cade Stover, also reeled in a couple grabs for 7 yards. Schultz continues a very solid, volume-based season. He has 75 receptions for 685 yards on 95 targets (79% catch rate) with three touchdowns. He’s been a shorter pass option for Stroud, averaging an aDOT of 6.53 with 9.13 yards per receptions and 4.17 yards after contact per reception this season. He primarily lines up inline (56.5%) and in the slot (34.3%). Schultz has really operated as the number two target in this offense. He has 5 or more receptions in 10 of his last 13 games this season. He holds almost a 20% first-read rate this season and is second on the team in first-read rate against two-high coverages, which LAC runs a lot of. However, the Chargers have been stingy to tight ends this season, allowing the 5th fewest receptions per game (4.3) and 7th fewest receiving yards (43.5), but have allowed 6 touchdowns. Betting lines are pretty much exactly where they should be, but if you are looking for a play, it’s over 4.5 receptions.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-110)

QB Justin Herbert

Herbert finally broke out of his midseason efficiency drought last week, completing 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards (10.3 YPA) while accounting for three total touchdowns, including a rushing score. That performance snapped a five-game stretch in which he failed to clear 220 passing yards and topped 14.7 FP just once, but the underlying matchup dynamics explain why this rebound may carry over. Houston plays a heavy zone shell, deploying Cover 3 (33.7%) and Cover 4 (21.1%) on nearly 55% of defensive snaps, and Herbert has consistently punished those looks this season. Across 231 dropbacks against Cover 3/4, he’s averaging 8.07 YPA, a strong +9.0% CPOE, and has added 102 rushing yards when defenses vacate the intermediate middle of the field. While Houston allows the sixth-fewest passing yards per game (197.6), recent results show erosion, with multiple passing TDs allowed in three of their last four games after allowing just one such outing in their first ten contests. Herbert’s willingness to scramble against zone spacing and the Chargers’ increased red-zone aggressiveness give him realistic access to multiple touchdowns again in this spot.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 1.5 Pass TDs (+110)

 

RB Omarion Hampton

Hampton delivered his most complete performance since returning from injury, logging 16 carries for 85 yards and a TD, while adding a reception in a game where the Chargers controlled script throughout. He’s now reached 12+ carries in seven of eight games, and his role near the goal line has quietly solidified as Los Angeles leans away from a committee. Houston presents a difficult matchup on paper, ranking fifth-fewest in rushing YPG (77.3) and fifth-fewest in adjusted YBC/ATT (1.67), but recent tape shows vulnerability once offenses reach the red zone or force linebackers to hesitate with motion and misdirection. The Texans have now allowed a rushing touchdown in four of their last five games, including explosive RB production from Ashton Jeanty last week. With Kimani Vidal limited and Hampton leading the backfield in carry share and early-down snaps, his scoring equity remains intact even if efficiency is inconsistent.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+125)

WR Ladd McConkey

McConkey’s recent stat lines mask the stability of his role. He played a 91% route share last week while drawing 21% of team targets, and he continues to function as Herbert’s primary zone-beater from the slot. Against Cover 3 and Cover 4, McConkey averages 1.27 yards per route run with consistent separation on intermediate breaks, and Houston is one of the more permissive defenses to slot efficiency, allowing the sixth-highest YPRR (1.92) to interior receivers. While his raw yardage ceiling has been capped recently, the Texans’ zone-heavy structure funnels throws underneath and between the numbers, where McConkey does most of his damage. It’s also notable that he previously torched this same defense in a playoff setting, reinforcing schematic compatibility even if volume remains moderate.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 40.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

 

WR Keenan Allen

Allen’s efficiency metrics remain strong, but his role has clearly diminished. Over the last several weeks, his route share has dipped into the 50–60% range, and he has failed to record five receptions in seven of his last ten games. While he still averages 2.19 YPRR and .27 TPRR against Cover 3/4, Houston’s perimeter defense limits both volume and catch efficiency, allowing the second-fewest receptions per game (6.1) and ranking fourth-fewest in yards per target (7.36) to outside receivers. With McConkey commanding slot usage and Quentin Johnston stretching the field vertically, Allen’s role is increasingly situational and chain-based rather than volume-driven, making sustained production harder to project in this matchup.

Suggested Play:

‘U’ 34.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

 

TE Oronde Gadsden

Gadsden’s post-bye usage spike has faded significantly. Since Week 12, he has recorded one reception in three of four games, despite maintaining strong per-route efficiency numbers against zone coverage (2.59 YPRR, .23 TPRR vs Cover 3/4). The issue has been opportunity rather than talent, as his snap share has fluctuated between 55–60% without consistent red-zone scheming. Houston remains disciplined against tight ends, allowing just 45.1 receiving YPG and ranking inside the top 12 in both TE catch suppression and route containment. Even with occasional seams available, the Texans rarely allow sustained tight end volume without extreme game script.

Suggested Play: 

‘U’ 30.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

This is screaming a defensive battle type of game. Did not like the way Stroud looked at all last week. This is a spot where I am puttin the trust in the better QB at Home.

Best Bet Under 41.5 -115
Lean Chargers ML -120
Score Prediction Texans 17 Chargers 23

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (Chargers) Omarion Hampton Anytime TD +125

Hampton delivered his most complete performance since returning from injury, logging 16 carries for 85 yards and a TD, while adding a reception in a game where the Chargers controlled script throughout. He’s now reached 12+ carries in seven of eight games, and his role near the goal line has quietly solidified as Los Angeles leans away from a committee. Houston presents a difficult matchup on paper, ranking fifth-fewest in rushing YPG (77.3) and fifth-fewest in adjusted YBC/ATT (1.67), but recent tape shows vulnerability once offenses reach the red zone or force linebackers to hesitate with motion and misdirection. The Texans have now allowed a rushing touchdown in four of their last five games, including explosive RB production from Ashton Jeanty last week. With Kimani Vidal limited and Hampton leading the backfield in carry share and early-down snaps, his scoring equity remains intact even if efficiency is inconsistent.

Longshot: (Texans) Jawhar Jordan +650
Yes, Marks is back and should once again be the lead back in this offense. Jordan seems to have the most juice of the bunch and they’ve used him more in the receiving game than they have of Marks. Passing touchdowns are going to be tough to come by against this LAC defense. In a pass-heavy league, LAC’s defense has only allowed 8 touchdowns to wide receivers compared to 12 to running backs. Finding a rusher to back makes a lot of sense here. Even with both Marks and Chubb healthy, it’s tough to envision Jordan not being used at all. His 5.13 yards per carry is significantly better than that of Marks or Chubb.

 

1st Touchdown: 

Longshot: (Chargers) Ladd McConkey First TD +875
McConkey profiles as a live first touchdown candidate in this matchup given how the Chargers script their opening possessions against zone-heavy defenses. Houston plays Cover 3 and Cover 4 on nearly 55% of snaps, a structure that naturally funnels early-game throws into the slot and intermediate middle of the field, where McConkey runs the majority of his routes. He played a 91% route share last week and has quietly become one of Justin Herbert’s most trusted options on scripted drives, particularly on quick hitters, option routes, and red-zone motion concepts designed to isolate linebackers. While his overall touchdown totals remain modest, McConkey’s usage near the goal line has trended upward, with designed looks inside the 10-yard line replacing some of Keenan Allen’s previous role. If the Chargers strike early through the air rather than grinding out a long Hampton drive, McConkey is well-positioned to be the first target Herbert looks to when Houston’s safeties stay high.

Best Bet: (Texans) Nico Collins +750
It’s not an ideal matchup for Collins, but if someone is scoring through the air, let’s go with the guy that is clearly the focal point in the offense.Collins is the first read on just about 30% of plays and owns 33% of the team yardage share. Since Week 9, Collins has seen about 26% of Houston's targets, 41% of the air yards, and 10 of 23 end zone targets. LAC plays a lot of zone (7th highest rate) and Collins is targeted at the 12th highest rate amongst wide receivers. Stroud should look to his top wideout in a game where there may not be many touchdowns to come by.

Parlay #1 (Chargers): +630
Omarion Hampton ATD
Ladd McConkey ‘O’ 40.5 Receiving Yards
Justin Herbert ‘O’ 1.5 Pass TDs

 

Parlay #2 (Texans): +274
Stroud 'U' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Nico Collins 40+ Receiving Yards
Dalton Schultz 'O' 4.5 Receptions

QB Tyler Huntley

Huntley steps into a difficult stylistic matchup against a Green Bay defense that leans heavily into zone coverage (~80% zone, 2nd-highest in the league), which generally limits explosive passing plays and forces quarterbacks to string together longer drives. While Huntley has historically handled zone reasonably well on a per-dropback basis, Baltimore’s offensive environment caps his ceiling. The Ravens are unlikely to open the offense fully with Lamar Jackson sidelined, especially against a Packers defense allowing the 8th-fewest passing yards per game (211.3). Huntley’s value instead comes from his legs — he’s rushed for 233 yards on zone looks this season and has shown a willingness to scramble when first reads are covered. Expect a conservative passing plan with limited downfield volume, making a passing yards under or a low-probability rushing TD sprinkle the most logical angles.

Suggested Play: 

'U' 162.5 Pass Yards (-120)

 

RB Derrick Henry

Henry remains the engine of this offense regardless of snap share volatility. He’s now produced 71+ scrimmage yards in 10 straight games and has logged 18+ carries in eight of those contests, reinforcing that Baltimore still leans on him in scoring situations. Green Bay’s run defense is respectable on a per-carry basis, but they’ve shown vulnerability when offenses stay committed, particularly late in drives. With Huntley under center, Baltimore’s red-zone playcalling should skew even more run-heavy, and Henry continues to dominate goal-line usage despite playing under 50% of snaps. If the Ravens reach the red zone multiple times, Henry is the most likely finisher.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (-125)

 

WR Zay Flowers

Flowers enters this matchup in strong form, having scored three total touchdowns over his last two games, including a rushing score that highlights Baltimore’s willingness to manufacture touches for him near the goal line. Against heavy zone, Flowers thrives on quick hitters, crossers, and yards-after-catch opportunities, where his 2.45 YPRR vs zone stands out as a clear strength. Green Bay allows the 9th-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers and struggles to limit motion-based concepts, which Baltimore uses frequently to free Flowers pre-snap. Even in a lower-volume passing environment, Flowers remains the top explosive skill player and the most likely Raven to score through the air or on a designed touch.

Suggested Play:

First TD (+1470)

 

TE Mark Andrews

Andrews continues to battle usage volatility and efficiency issues, finishing with 2 or fewer receptions in four of his last five games. Against zone coverage, his production has dipped significantly, managing just 0.99 YPRR with a modest target rate that reflects Baltimore’s shifting emphasis toward wide receivers and backs. Green Bay compounds the issue by limiting tight end efficiency, allowing the 5th-fewest receiving yards per game to the position. With Huntley at quarterback and likely prioritizing safer throws and check-downs, Andrews’ ceiling remains capped unless game script forces volume. This profiles as a spot where his role is more decoy than focal point.

Suggested Play:

'U' 2.5 Receptions (+110)

QB Malik Willis

Willis brings a very different profile than Jordan Love, and that matters against a Baltimore defense that plays man coverage at a top-six rate (33.8%). Man-heavy looks tend to open scrambling lanes, and Willis immediately took advantage last week, logging 10 carries for 44 yards after entering mid-game. Baltimore just allowed 380 passing yards and 25 rushing yards to Drake Maye, highlighting both coverage breakdowns and vulnerability to mobile quarterbacks. Willis’ efficiency was strong in relief (11.0 YPA), and Green Bay leaned into play-action and rollouts to simplify reads. Even if the pass volume isn’t extreme, his combined efficiency and rushing floor keep him live to clear a modest passing yardage number.

Suggested Play:

'O' 169.5 Pass Yards (-120)

 

RB Josh Jacobs

Jacobs’ role is trending in the wrong direction at the exact wrong time. He played just 39% of snaps last week, logged 12 carries, and lost a fumble that directly led to more work for Emanuel Wilson (14 carries, 82 yards). Jacobs is clearly limited by a knee injury, and Baltimore’s front is a brutal matchup for compromised runners, ranking 7th-best in adjusted yards before contact allowed (1.70). With Willis under center, Green Bay is more likely to lean on QB mobility and perimeter concepts rather than force inside volume. Jacobs’ touchdown equity remains intact, but raw carry volume is at risk.

Suggested Play:

'U' 16.5 Rush Attempts (-105)

 

WR Romeo Doubs

Doubs finally broke out in Week 16, posting 5/84/1 on six targets, and his usage spike was meaningful rather than fluky. He saw a 25% target share despite playing only 62% of snaps, showing that Willis clearly trusts him in isolation routes. Baltimore’s defense allows the third-most receptions per game to outside receivers (9.1), and man coverage increases red-zone opportunities on slants, fades, and quick-breaking routes — all areas where Doubs excels. If Green Bay reaches the red zone through scrambling or broken plays, Doubs is the most reliable contested-catch option.

Suggested Play 

Anytime TD (+255)

 

WR Jayden Reed

Reed’s raw volume hasn’t jumped yet, but his role has stabilized since returning, reaching 3+ receptions and 41+ scrimmage yards in three straight games. Against man coverage, Baltimore has struggled to contain slot receivers with speed and lateral quickness, giving up 138 yards to Stefon Diggs last week. Reed’s 1.47 YPRR vs man is solid in a small sample, and his usage on jet motion and underneath crossers fits well with Willis’ strengths. Even on limited targets, Reed’s ability to create yards after the catch makes him a strong candidate to clear a modest yardage line.

Suggested Play: 

'O' 27.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Best Bet: Packers -2.5 -150
Lean: Over 38.5 -125
Score Prediction : Packers 27 Ravens 17

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Ravens) Derrick Henry Anytime TD -125

Henry remains the engine of this offense regardless of snap share volatility. He’s now produced 71+ scrimmage yards in 10 straight games and has logged 18+ carries in eight of those contests, reinforcing that Baltimore still leans on him in scoring situations. Green Bay’s run defense is respectable on a per-carry basis, but they’ve shown vulnerability when offenses stay committed, particularly late in drives. With Huntley under center, Baltimore’s red-zone playcalling should skew even more run-heavy, and Henry continues to dominate goal-line usage despite playing under 50% of snaps. If the Ravens reach the red zone multiple times, Henry is the most likely finisher.

 

Best Bet (Packers): Romeo Doubs Anytime TD +255

Doubs finally broke out in Week 16, posting 5/84/1 on six targets, and his usage spike was meaningful rather than fluky. He saw a 25% target share despite playing only 62% of snaps, showing that Willis clearly trusts him in isolation routes. Baltimore’s defense allows the third-most receptions per game to outside receivers (9.1), and man coverage increases red-zone opportunities on slants, fades, and quick-breaking routes — all areas where Doubs excels. If Green Bay reaches the red zone through scrambling or broken plays, Doubs is the most reliable contested-catch option.

 

1st Touchdown: 

Longshot: (Ravens) Zay Flowers First TD +1470

Flowers enters this matchup in strong form, having scored three total touchdowns over his last two games, including a rushing score that highlights Baltimore’s willingness to manufacture touches for him near the goal line. Against heavy zone, Flowers thrives on quick hitters, crossers, and yards-after-catch opportunities, where his 2.45 YPRR vs zone stands out as a clear strength. Green Bay allows the 9th-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers and struggles to limit motion-based concepts, which Baltimore uses frequently to free Flowers pre-snap. Even in a lower-volume passing environment, Flowers remains the top explosive skill player and the most likely Raven to score through the air or on a designed touch.

Best Bet (Packers) Malik Willis First TD +1500

Willis is a live first-touchdown candidate because of how Green Bay’s offense naturally shifts with him under center, especially against a Ravens defense that plays man coverage at a top-six rate (33.8%). Man-heavy looks consistently open rushing lanes for mobile quarterbacks, and Willis immediately leaned into that last week, carrying the ball 10 times for 44 yards in limited action while showing comfort on designed keepers and broken-play scrambles. Baltimore just allowed Drake Maye to account for a touchdown while piling up 380 passing yards and 25 rushing yards, exposing discipline issues on early downs and in the red zone when quarterbacks extend plays. With Josh Jacobs limited by a knee injury, coming off a 39% snap share, and Green Bay likely easing Willis into the game with read-option looks, bootlegs, and QB movement near the goal line, Willis has a realistic path to being the one who finishes the opening drive with his legs rather than relying on a banged-up backfield.

Parlay #1 (Ravens): +455

Mark Andrews 'U' 2.5 Receptions

Tyler Huntley 'U' 162.5 Pass Yards

Derrick Henry ATD

 

Parlay #2 (Packers) +210

Josh Jacobs ATD

Malik Willis 'O' 169.5 Pass Yards

 

QB Dak Prescott

Dak fell just 10 yards shy of cashing our over last week. But this Christmas, he gets a familiar matchup in the Washington Commanders, a team Prescott played in Week 7 and went 21/30 for 264 passing yards, three TDs and zero INTs. The Commanders remain the same defence, allowing limited volume but still giving up heavy production, as they allow the 14th fewest completions (20.7) and pass attempts (30.9), yet allowing the 6th most passing yards (254.9) and the 2nd most passing TDs (2.0) per game to opposing QBs. Washington runs the 14th most man coverage (26.8%), and the 9th most Cover 1 (22.6%) in the NFL. Against man coverage this season, Prescott has been highly efficient, posting the 6th-highest completion percentage (62.5%) and yards per attempt (8.07), with a strong 104.2 QBR. His numbers dip in Cover 1, where he sits at a middle-tier 71.2% completion rate and 7.22 yards per attempt, but with a notably lower QBR of 73.3. The Cowboys don't have much to play for after being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, other than the pride and joy of Christmas and beating a division rival. However, Prescott is still going for the NFL passing title, currently just four yards behind Matthew Stafford. So he should still have plenty to play for.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott o272.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Dak Prescott 2+ Passing TDs (-210) Parlay Piece

 

RB Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams saw a decline in snap share last week after sustaining a neck injury. However, he's been cleared for this week against the Commanders, a defence he had 116 rushing yards and a score against in Week 7 earlier this season. Washington allows the 5th most rush attempts (24.3) and the 3rd most rushing yards (113.5) per game to opposing backs. Structurally, Washington leans more toward zone concepts (44.9%) than man/gap schemes. Williams has been far more effective against man/gap looks, averaging 5.12 yards per carry compared to 4.56 against zone, aligning well with Washington’s biggest weakness, as they allow 5.2 yards per carry versus man/gap and a still encouraging 4.35 yards per carry against zone. So, no matter what the Commanders throw at him, Williams should have success on the ground. However, we are a little concerned with his potential volume coming off the neck injury and with not much for the Cowboys to play for.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams u16.5 Rush Attempts (-115)

 

WR CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb still had his production, but couldn't keep his 100-yard receiving streak intact, as he turned his six receptions into just 51 receiving yards. Earlier this season, Lamb made his return in Week 7 against the Commanders, where he turned just five receptions into 110 receiving yards and a TD. The Commanders are still a favourable matchup for WRs, as they allow the 11th most receptions (12.1) and the 9th most receiving yards (158.7) per game. Against man coverage this season, Lamb has 24 receptions on 36 targets for 334 yards while commanding a team-high 27.7% target share. He sees his yards per reception (16.9) and yards per route run (3.87) increase in man coverage compared to zone, despite his catch rate dipping to 61.5%. That dominance becomes more pronounced against Cover 1, where he has totalled 19 receptions on 27 targets for 297 yards and an enormous 36% target share. With 63.3% of his snaps coming out wide, Lamb aligns well against a Washington secondary that bleeds production to perimeter receivers. Despite a relatively low overall target rate allowed by the Commanders defence, they allow the 4th highest catch rate (66.3%), and 13th highest yards per reception (13.4) to the alignment. It won't come as a surprise to see Lamb have a bounce-back week against this Commanders defence, a team against which he's already proven he can.

Suggested pick:

CeeDee Lamb o79.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR George Pickens

George Pickens was the receiver to watch last week, as he went for 130 receiving yards and a score. Against the Commanders in Week 7, with Lamb returning, Pickens had just four receptions for 82 receiving yards. Against man coverage, he has posted 27 receptions on 39 targets for 502 receiving yards while commanding a strong target share (25%). That production is amplified against Cover 1, where Pickens has turned 20 receptions on 27 targets into 401 yards and an even larger team-leading target share (28.7%). His effectiveness versus man is driven by elevated yards per reception (18.1) and yards per route run (3.29), though it comes with a lower catch rate (72.2%). With 89.8% of his snaps coming out wide, we've already covered how good a matchup it is for that alignment.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens o26.5 Longest Reception (-115)

 

TE Jake Ferguson

That's now back-to-back disappointing weeks for Ferguson, failing to log over 20 receiving yards in either matchup, despite seeing six targets. This week, he'll get a Commanders defence that allows the 12th fewest receptions per game (5.7) but the 8th most receiving yards (62.5). Ferguson has seen steady involvement against man coverage, posting 19 receptions on 25 targets for 118 yards with a target share (16%), while his usage remains identical against Cover 1 with 12 receptions on 15 targets for 53 yards and the same target share (16%). His efficiency dips in man looks, where his catch rate (75%), yards per reception (6.7), and yards per route run (0.84) all trail his zone splits. Alignment-wise, Ferguson runs 55.1% of his snaps from the slot, an area where Washington allows the 9th highest targeted rate, the 5th highest catch rate (74%), and the 2nd highest yards per reception (13.1). The targets haven't been there for Ferguson lately, but he saw a seven-target outing, turning that into seven receptions for only 29 yards. This poses as a good matchup for Ferguson to see his volume increase.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson o4.5 Receptions (-110)

QB Josh Johnson

No Jayden Daniels. No Marcus Mariota. Enter Josh Johnson. He came in relief last week against the Eagles and completed five of his nine attempts for 43 passing yards, zero TDs and an INT. It's disappointing that the Commanders are on their third-string QB, as this is a favourable matchup, allowing the 6th most completions (22.9), the 11th most pass attempts (272.9), the most passing yards (272.9), the most passing TDs (2.2) and the 3rd most rushing yards (23.7) per game to opposing QBs. The Cowboys run the 11th most zone coverage (75.6%) and the 5th most Cover 2 (21.6%) in the entire NFL. But we can't recommend anything with Johnson making his first start of the season, even in a good matchup.

Suggested pick:

Pass

 

RB Chris Rodriguez

Chris Rodriguez returned last week and stepped back into the starters role, handling a season-high 15 rush attempts, 63 rushing yards and a score. He had just three attempts against the Cowboys in Week 7, turning that into just 12 yards, but found the end zone. The Cowboys defence has changed since then, however, with the addition of Quinnen Williams. They allow the 9th fewest rush attempts (20.3) and the 15th fewest rushing yards (92.5) per game, but they are far more vulnerable to backs through the air, giving up the fifth most receptions (4.9) and the third most receiving yards (44.4) – even though that's not Rodriguez's game. Scheme-wise, Dallas leans more heavily on man/gap concepts (42.8%) than zone (36.6%). Rodriguez averages a stronger 4.73 yards per carry against man/gap while still holding a solid 4.41 against zone, compared to Dallas allowing 4.68 yards per carry versus man/gap and 4.11 against zone. And while it will be harder to run on the Cowboys, with Johnson starting, the Commanders will have no choice but to rely on the run game.

Suggested Pick:

Chris Rodriguez 50+ Rushing Yards (-135)

 

WR Deebo Samuel

Well, this would have been a good matchup for Deebo had one of Daniels or Mariota been starting. The Cowboys allow the 11th most receptions (12.1), and the most receiving yards (174.3) to opposing WRs per game. Samuel does his best work against zone coverage as well, catching 50 of 62 targets for 460 receiving yards, while leading the team with a 23.5% target share. His 80.4% catch rate against zone is impressive as well, and lines up well against his heavy-zone alignment (62.4%) against this Cowboys defence. Dallas allows the highest catch rate (76.7%) to slot receivers this season. With all of this in mind, and Johnson under centre, he could take the safe route and heavily target the safer, lower aDoT middle of the field receivers such as Samuel.

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel o4.5 Receptions (-115)

 

WR Terry McLaurin

I think McLaurin is going to be the one hurt the most by this QB change. He does well against zone, catching 22 of his 27 targets for 392 receiving yards with a 17% target share, pairing a strong catch rate (75%) with explosive efficiency through a yards per reception mark (16.6) and yards per route run (2.62). His Cover 2 volume has been limited, with just three receptions on three targets for 38 yards and a target share (7.7%). McLaurin has aligned out wide on the vast majority of his snaps (86%), where the Cowboys are targeted at the 14th-highest rate league-wide, owns the 7th-highest catch rate (65.6%), and leads the NFL in yards per reception (16.1). However, McLaurin is best when he's burning opposing defences with the deep ball, but that's not going to be Johnson's game. So we aren't expecting a big week from the Commanders WR.

Suggested pick:

Terry McLaurin u21.5 Longest Reception (-120)

Dak Prescott has been one of, if not the best QB, all season, production-wise through the air. Neither team has much to play for, considering both are eliminated from the playoffs. And where the Commanders might have an edge against this poor Cowboys pass defence, they won't be able to exploit it with Josh Johnson as their starting QB. As mentioned, Dak has the passing title to play for, which is why we're giving the edge to the Cowboys.

Cowboys -8.5
Cowboys TT o27.5
Cowboys 38 - Commanders 14

 

Best Bet: Cowboys TT o27.5
Lean: Cowboys -8.5
Score Prediction: Cowboys 38 - Commanders 14

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Cowboys): Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+135)

It's been quite a while since Ferguson found the end zone, since Week 11 to be exact. However, he was a scoring machine from Week 4-7, which included two TDs against this Commanders team. Washington allows the 2nd most receiving TDs (0.7) to opposing TEs per game this season.

 

Best Pick: (Commanders): Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+220)

It's been since Week 11 since Deebo has scored a TD, despite seeing 22 targets over a four-game stretch. He missed Week 7 against the Cowboys, but he has a strong history of receiving production against them in the past. Though we don't like the Commanders' passing attack this week, the Cowboys are allowing nearly two TDs per game (1.7, 0.4 more than the next team). That's hard to ignore. Even if he doesn't catch the ball, he's been known to get handoffs around the red zone and could use his legs to find paydirt.

 

1st Touchdown: 

Best Pick: (Cowboys) Javonte Williams First TD (+350)

We love Williams to find the end zone this week, but his -190 line is not playable straight, so we'll take him to find the end zone first. Williams scored a TD in Week 7 against the Commanders, and it just so happened to be the first, and on the first drive no less. Expect a similar result this week.

Parlay 1: (Cowboys) +190 odds on bet365

Dak Prescott 250+ Passing Yards

Javonte Williams TD

CeeDee Lamb 70+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 2: (Commanders) +210 odds on bet365

Josh Johnson INT

Chris Rodriguez 40+ Rushing Yards

Deebo Samuel 4+ Receptions

 

Parlay 3: (Cowboys/Commanders) +2000 odds on bet365

Dak Prescott 300+ Passing Yards

Chris Rodriguez 15+ Rush Attempts

Javonte Williams TD

CeeDee Lamb 100+ Receiving Yards

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff continues to operate with one of the highest volume and efficiency profiles in the league, even as Minnesota presents one of the toughest schematic matchups. Since Detroit’s Week 8 bye, Goff has averaged 41.6 pass attempts and 310.5 passing yards per game, clearing 255 passing yards in eight straight games. Against two-high safety shells specifically, Goff has been highly efficient, averaging 8.14 yards per attempt, a 7.0% CPOE, and a 113.3 passer rating across 263 dropbacks, which ranks among the best marks in the NFL against that coverage structure. Minnesota’s defense has excelled at limiting touchdowns, allowing just 0.9 passing TDs per game, but they’ve still conceded meaningful yardage to high-volume passers who are willing to sustain long drives rather than hunt explosives. Goff already logged 284 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings earlier this season, and Detroit’s offensive pace and neutral-script pass rate suggest another high-attempt outing. Even if touchdown efficiency is suppressed again, the combination of volume, accuracy, and short-to-intermediate success points toward yardage accumulation.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 241.5 Passing Yards (-120)

 

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs’ usage profile continues to trend in his favor, even in matchups where rushing efficiency is difficult to come by. Over the last four games, Gibbs has averaged 78% snap share, 63% carry share, and 68% route share, clearly separating himself from David Montgomery in high-leverage situations. Minnesota ranks top-six in limiting yards before contact (1.67 adjusted YBC/ATT allowed), but they simultaneously allow backs to stay involved via volume, especially in scoring situations created by defensive spacing. Gibbs has recorded 3+ receptions in nine consecutive games, and he’s reached 15+ total touches in 12 of 15 games this season. While Minnesota allows the fewest receiving yards per game to RBs (19.3), they’ve still surrendered short-yardage and misdirection scores, particularly when defenses are stretched horizontally. 

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 112.5 Receiving + Rush Yards (-115)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Despite a down box score last week, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s underlying usage remains elite. He has logged 22 games with 5+ receptions in his last 25 full appearances, and prior to Week 15, he averaged 11.4 targets per game over his previous nine contests. Against two-high safety looks, St. Brown has been especially effective, posting 2.86 yards per route run and an elite 33% targets per route run (TPRR) on 219 routes, demonstrating that coverage shell alone hasn’t limited his ability to command volume. Minnesota has been strong against slot receivers, allowing just 53.1 receiving yards per game and 5.6 receptions per game to the alignment, but St. Brown already showed he can beat this defense with 9 receptions for 97 yards earlier this season. In red-zone and third-down situations, Detroit continues to funnel targets his way, making him the most reliable pass-catching touchdown option even in a coverage-tight environment.

Suggested Play: 

Anytime Touchdown (+105)

WR Jameson Williams

Jameson Williams remains the primary explosive counter to Minnesota’s conservative coverage philosophy. Over his last 10 games, Williams has reached 66+ receiving yards in eight contests, with seven touchdowns in that span. Against two-high safety shells, he averages 1.81 yards per route run on 231 routes, and his role has expanded beyond pure go-routes into intermediate crossers and schemed deep shots. Minnesota’s defense is allowing the highest yards per route run (2.48) to receivers aligned out wide, despite otherwise limiting raw volume, which creates opportunities for chunk plays rather than sustained production. Williams already capitalized on this matchup earlier in the season with 4 receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown, and Detroit continues to manufacture opportunities for him when defenses tilt coverage toward St. Brown. Williams doesn’t need volume to pay off — one well-timed shot can decide his market.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 25.5 Yard Longest Reception (-125)

QB Max Brosmer

Another week, another Max Brosmer start for the Minnesota Vikings. JJ McCarthy is out with multiple injuries, so Brosmer gets the nod, and it wasn't the most encouraging NFL debuts for him, as he went 19/30 for 126 passing yards and four INTs. Now, the Seahawks are a tough defence; however, the Lions aren't the easiest to exploit either, allowing the 16th fewest completions (20.8) but the 10th most pass attempts (33.6), the 8th most passing yards (248.7) and the 3rd most passing TDs (1.9). Detroit runs the 2nd most man coverage (41%) and the 3rd most Cover 1 (29.9%). So, coverage should be tight for Brosmer to make plays, and in only his second start of his career, we aren't going to be trusting him in this matchup.

Suggested pick:

Pass

 

RB Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones handled his biggest workload of the season last week, and that should only continue this week with running mate Jordan Mason already ruled out for this matchup. He'll get a Detroit defence that allows the 11th fewest rush attempts (20.7) and the 14th fewest rushing yards (92.3) per game while also ranking among the league’s stingiest units against backs in the passing game, with the 8th fewest receptions (3.7) and 6th fewest receiving yards (25.7) allowed. Detroit leans more toward zone concepts (42.8%) than man/gap (37.8%), and the results have been fairly balanced, as they give up 4.04 yards per carry against zone and 4.67 against man/gap. Jones has been similarly consistent across both looks, averaging 4.00 yards per carry versus zone and 4.12 against man/gap – so no clear schematic advantage there. With Brosmer under centre in Week 13, we saw Jones get heavily targeted in his limited snaps, before he left with an injury. He had three receptions despite playing just 38% of the snaps. That should go up, especially with no Mason in the lineup, and with a full workload.

Suggested Pick:

Aaron Jones 4+ Receptions (+120)

 

WR Justin Jefferson

It finally happened. Justin Jefferson had a decent game, catching six of his eight targets for 85 receiving yards. However, the switch to Brosmer likely kills all that momentum. With Brosmer in Week 13, Jefferson caught just two of his six targets for four receiving yards. The Lions defence is one opposing WRs can exploit, as they allow the 9th most receptions (12.2) and the 3rd most receiving yards (168.8). But that likely goes out the window with Brosmer, which is a shame, because Jefferson typically leads the team with a 30.5% target share against man coverage, and an even higher 31.5% target share against Cover 1, the Lions' most preferred shell. Despite coming off that bounce-back week, I just can't back Jefferson with Brosmer.

Suggested pick:

Pass

 

WR Jordan Addison

Same goes for Addison. But his splits against man coverage aren't as appealing, hauling in just eight of his 15 targets for 95 receiving yards and a 16.1% target share. In Week 13 with Brosmer, Addison has a team-high 10 targets, but turned that into just five receptions for 36 receiving yards. No TJ Hockenson this week likely means more targets to go around for both receivers, but still not something we're comfortable with suggesting this week.

Suggested pick:

Pass

Lions will hurt Brosmer by running man coverage and getting pressure by doing that. Campbell will have his guys ready

Best Bet: Lions -150
Lean Under 44.5 -120
Score Prediction Lions 27 Commanders 14

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Vikings): Aaron Jones TD (+135)

Aaron Jones is the only one we like in this matchup for anything. His involvement should only increase without Jordan Mason and an inexperienced QB starting. Jones has not scored since Week 10, but the Lions rank middle of the pack in terms of RB TDs allowed per game (0.73) per game.

Best Bet (Lions): Amon Ra St Brown Anytime TD +105

Despite a down box score last week, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s underlying usage remains elite. He has logged 22 games with 5+ receptions in his last 25 full appearances, and prior to Week 15, he averaged 11.4 targets per game over his previous nine contests. Against two-high safety looks, St. Brown has been especially effective, posting 2.86 yards per route run and an elite 33% targets per route run (TPRR) on 219 routes, demonstrating that coverage shell alone hasn’t limited his ability to command volume. Minnesota has been strong against slot receivers, allowing just 53.1 receiving yards per game and 5.6 receptions per game to the alignment, but St. Brown already showed he can beat this defense with 9 receptions for 97 yards earlier this season. In red-zone and third-down situations, Detroit continues to funnel targets his way, making him the most reliable pass-catching touchdown option even in a coverage-tight environment.

 

 

1st Touchdown: 

Longshot (Lions) Jameson Williams First TD +875

From an efficiency standpoint, Williams averages 1.81 yards per route run against two-high shells and leads Detroit wide receivers in explosive targets (20+ air yards) during scripted drives. Minnesota’s defense allows the highest YPRR to outside receivers (2.48) despite suppressing total volume, which creates an ideal setup for a one-play strike rather than sustained drives. In the first meeting between these teams, Williams scored on a vertical concept that exploited late safety rotation — the exact type of breakdown that tends to surface early before coverage adjustments are made. Detroit has also shown a clear tendency to use Williams as a red-zone decoy or strike option when defenses overload toward Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jahmyr Gibbs. With St. Brown commanding safety attention inside and Gibbs drawing underneath defenders, Williams is often left in true one-on-one situations outside, particularly on scripted shot plays inside the 25.

 

Parlay 1: (Vikings) +290 odds on bet365

Aaron Jones 4+ Receptions

Aaron Jones 30+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #1 (Lions): +255

Jared Goff ‘O’ 241.5 Pass Yards

Jameson Williams ‘O’ 25.5 Yard Longest Reception

Jahmyr Gibbs ATD

 

QB Bo Nix

Despite the losing efforts, Bo Nix had the most passing yards of the season, throwing for 352 passing yards on 28 completions, finishing with a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. This week, he'll face a tough Kansas City defence, though it might not be as tough as usual, as the Chiefs will be starting Chris Oladokun in his first professional start. The Chiefs might struggle to stay on the field, and Nix and the Broncos will often be playing a tired defence. The Chiefs allow the 11th fewest completions (20.2), 5th fewest pass attempts (29.6), 9th fewest passing yards (213.3), 4th fewest passing touchdowns (1.1) per game to opposing QBs. Kansas City runs man coverage at the 9th highest rate (29.4%) and Cover 0 at the highest rate (8.1%) in the NFL. Nix has the 9th highest completion percentage (61.5%), and the 13th highest QBR (107.3), but the 4th lowest yards per attempt (6.43) against man coverage. Against Cover 0, Nix has much better stats, with the 8th highest completion percentage (61.1%), the 11th highest yards per attempt (4.78) and a middle-of-the-pack 89.4 QBR. Nix should handle the ball a lot, resulting in a high passing yardage day for the second-year QB as the Broncos try to solidify the one seed in the AFC. Against the Chiefs in Week 11, Nix threw for 295 passing yards, and that was against Patrick Mahomes.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix o233.5 Passing Yards (-110)

 

RB RJ Havey

RJ Harvey has been pretty darn good stepping in for Dobbins. He didn't see a ton of volume against a tough Jaguars rush defence last week, but still rushed for 50 yards on just seven attempts. Most of his damage came in the passing game, where he caught four balls for 71 receiving yards, showing he can get it done on the ground and through the air. This week, he'll get a Chiefs rush defence that allows the 7th fewest rush attempts (20.1), the 8th fewest rushing yards (82.5). Chiefs run zone concept at one of the highest rates in the league (51.3%). Against zone concept, the Chiefs allow 4.19 yards per carry – which is better than their 3.99 yards per carry against man/gap. While Harvey has struggled against zone concept defence, a few games ago, he had a sub-3 yards per carry. But now, he's brought that up to 4.08. And as a result, he's scored a TD in four straight weeks. So, we like his odds of extending that to five weeks this week.

Suggested Pick:

RJ Harvey TD (-125)

 

WR Courtland Sutton

Sutton continues his dominance in target share, after racking up 11 targets last week, which pushes his streak to double-digit targets to three straight. Against the Chiefs in Week 11, Sutton caught four of his six targets for 59 receiving yards. They remain a difficult matchup for WRs, allowing the 16th most receptions (11.1) and the 11th fewest receiving yards (131.3) per game. Against man coverage this season, Nix has 16 receptions on 25 targets for 276 receiving yards, leading the team with a 27.5 target share. Against Cover 0, a not very common shell, Sutton has a disappointing one reception on four targets for 15 receiving yards, but with a decent 22.2% target share. Overall, Sutton performs better against man coverage, seeing his catch rate (65.2%), yards per reception (17.1) and yards per route run (2.91) increase compared to his zone splits. Lining up on the outside on 81.6% of his snaps, Sutton has a promising matchup alignment-wise, as the Chiefs allow the 3rd highest catch rate (67.9%) to opposing outside WRs.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton o4.5 Receptions (-145)

 

WR Troy Franklin / Pat Bryant

Although outproduced by Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant was this team's second receiving option behind Franklin. However, after getting popped late in the fourth quarter and needing to be stretchered off, Bryant is unlikely to play on this short week, which opens up the opportunity for Franklin again this week. Against man coverage, Franklin has 13 receptions on 24 targets for 84 yards and a 26.4% target share. Against Cover 0, Franklin has caught 4 receptions on 5 targets for 26 yards, leading the team with a 27.8% target share. He performs better in man coverage in terms of target share but lower in efficiency with a 50% catch rate, 5.5 yards per reception, and 0.76 yards per route run than his zone numbers. Franklin has run 54% of his routes out wide, like Sutton. If Bryant is officially ruled out, his 38.5 receiving yard line is just too low as this team's second option opposite of Sutton. In Week 11 against the Chiefs, Franklin turned his four receptions into 84 receiving yards.

Suggested pick:

Troy Franklin o38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Evan Engram

Bang. After letting us down all season, Engram comes through in a big way in cashing his receiving yards line on his first catch that went for 33 yards. The Chiefs are good against opposing TEs, however, as they allow the 8th fewest receptions (4.9) and the 11th fewest receiving yards (47.8) per game. Along with that, Engram's numbers are discouraging against man coverage. Engram has four receptions on seven targets for 47 yards against man coverage (7.7% target share) and one reception on one target for 20 yards against Cover 0 (5.6% target share). He averages 11.8 yards per reception against man coverage, which is a boost compared to his zone splits, but sees a decrease in yards per route run (0.87) and catch rate (66.7%). Engram runs 44.6% of his routes inline. The Chiefs are targeted at the 11th lowest in target rate, allowing the 9th highest in catch rate (82%) and 4th highest in yards per reception (11.29). It might be wishful thinking to imagine Engram doing it two weeks in a row for us, so we're going to pass on him in this tougher matchup.

Suggested pick:

Pass

QB Chris Oladokun

Chris Oladokun is set to make his second straight start as Kansas City plays out the string following injuries to both Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew. In limited action last week, Oladokun completed 11-of-16 passes (68.8%) for 111 yards (6.9 YPA) with no touchdowns and added 2 carries for 7 yards, operating almost entirely within a conservative, short-area structure. Denver forced Kansas City into a low-ADOT passing approach, and there’s little reason to expect a drastic philosophical shift here. Las Vegas deploys man coverage at a top-10 rate and has consistently limited explosive passing plays, ranking near the top of the league in passes allowed of 20+ yards. Oladokun’s profile — limited arm aggressiveness, heavy reliance on schemed throws, and minimal designed rushing — caps both efficiency and volume. Kansas City is far more likely to lean on the run and short possession throws than allow Oladokun to push the ball vertically.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 153.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Isiah Pacheco

With Kansas City eliminated, Pacheco moved back into a featured role last week, playing a 72% snap share and leading the backfield in carries (8) and routes (6 targets), while Kareem Hunt faded to a rotational role. Pacheco’s usage suggests Kansas City wants to evaluate him as a foundational piece heading into next season, but the matchup is problematic. Las Vegas ranks among the league’s best in adjusted yards before contact allowed, and they’ve consistently closed interior running lanes against downhill runners. While Pacheco’s receiving role gives him some insulation, the Chiefs’ offense projects to struggle sustaining drives, limiting red-zone opportunities. His touch volume should be solid, but efficiency on the ground remains a concern against a disciplined front that forces backs to win after contact.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 10.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

 

WR Xavier Worthy

Worthy continues to run as the primary outside receiver, logging an 81% route share last week, but his production cratered without Mahomes under center. He saw just 3 targets, finishing with 2 receptions for 41 yards, and now has only one touchdown across 13 games this season. Against man-heavy defenses, Worthy averages 1.65 yards per route run, but his target rate drops significantly when the quarterback struggles to extend plays or throw with anticipation. Las Vegas plays tight man coverage with safety help shaded toward speed threats, forcing receivers to win quickly at the line — an area where Worthy remains inconsistent. Without vertical shot volume or red-zone involvement, his path to meaningful production is narrow.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ Receiving Yards

 

TE Travis Kelce

Kelce’s role has shifted dramatically without Mahomes. Over his last three games, he’s posted 1 catch in two of them, and last week he managed 1 reception for 6 yards on 4 targets despite running routes on 77% of dropbacks. While his season-long efficiency remains strong, Kelce’s man-coverage splits dip notably, averaging just 1.22 YPRR against man looks. Las Vegas frequently brackets tight ends in high-leverage situations, and Kansas City’s quarterback play has struggled to punish those looks. That said, Kelce remains the most reliable chain-mover on the roster, and Oladokun showed a clear willingness to look underneath when pressured. If Kansas City falls behind, Kelce should again lead the team in targets even if explosive plays remain scarce.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ Longest Reception

Chiefs down to that terrible 3rd string QB. Look for Denver to control this game form start to finish.

Best Bet Over 36.5 -110
Lean Broncos TT 'O' 22.5 Pts -110
Score Prediction Broncos 27 Chiefs 17

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Broncos): RJ Harvey TD (-125)

We covered this above, but Harvey has scored five total TDs over his last four games – all coming after the bye week, where rookies typically get more involved in the offence. The Chiefs allow the 6th fewest rushing TDs (0.53) per game to opposing RBs; however, with the Chiefs starting a third-stringer, the defence should be tired, which could create more opportunities for Harvey and the Broncos in the red zone.

Best Bet (Chiefs) Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD +470:
Isiah Pacheco re-emerged as the clear lead back once Kansas City entered evaluation mode, playing a 72% snap share, leading the team in carries, and pacing the backfield in routes run last week. While Las Vegas is strong against early-down rushing efficiency, Pacheco’s touchdown equity isn’t tied solely to long runs — it’s driven by volume and role near the goal line. With Kareem Hunt reduced to a complementary piece and the passing game limited, Kansas City is far more likely to lean on straight-line power concepts inside the 10-yard line when they reach scoring range. Pacheco’s combination of early-down work and receiving usage also gives him multiple paths to a score, especially if the Chiefs manufacture offense through short fields or defensive help. Any Chiefs touchdown after the opening score increasingly funnels through Pacheco’s workload.

 

1st Touchdown: 

Best Bet (Chiefs) Travis Kelce First TD +1955:
With Kansas City operating without Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew, the offense has shifted heavily toward short-area structure, condensed formations, and quick reads, especially in scoring situations. That’s where Travis Kelce still profiles as the most trusted option. Even with the production dip, Kelce continues to run routes on 75%+ of dropbacks, and he remains the primary designed first-read target on scripted red-zone plays. Las Vegas plays man coverage at a high rate, and historically Kelce has been Kansas City’s go-to against man near the goal line due to his ability to win leverage quickly on option routes and shallow crossers. With limited confidence in Chris Oladokun pushing the ball downfield, Kansas City’s first successful drive is most likely to end via a schemed red-zone throw, not a deep shot or extended scramble drill. Kelce’s role as the offense’s safety valve makes him the most logical first scorer if the Chiefs strike early.

Parlay 1: (Broncos) +260 odds on bet365

Bo Nix 200+ Passing Yards

RJ Harvey TD

Courtland Sutton 5+ Receptions

Parlay #1 (Chiefs) +1260

Isiah Pacheco ATD

Chris Oladokun ‘U’ 153.3 Pass Yards
Isiah Pacheco ‘O’ 10.5 Rush Attempts

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is averaging 204.3 passing yards per game, 6.94 YPA and a 66.7% completion rate. He’s thrown 23 passing touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’ll be without his top option, DK Metcalf, as he’s suspended after throwing a punch at a fan last week. The Steelers are 3-point road favorites against the Browns with an extremely low 34-point implied total. The Browns rank 5th best in EPA/Pass and have allowed the fewest passing yards per game (164.1). The Browns pressure the QB at the highest rate in the NFL (44.2%). Expect Rodgers to get the ball out quick, just like he has all season. When pressured, Rodgers averages 6.66 YPA, a 45.2% completion rate and a 76.4 QB rating. The Browns play man coverage at the highest rate (41.9%) and single-high at the highest rate in the NFL (68.8%). Against single-high, Rodgers averages 6.85 YPA, a 63.5% completion rate and a 95.1 QB rating. Against man, Rodgers averages 6.33 YPA, a 50.9% completion rate and a 97.1 QB rating. I’m fading Rodgers here. 

Suggested Pick:

Under 31.5 Yards Longest Pass (-110)

 

RB Jaylen Warren/Kenneth Gainwell

Warren and Gainwell have split work as of late, with equivalent 49.8% snap rates over the past 5 weeks. In this same sample size, Gainwell has been the preferred pass catching back. He has a 48.5% route participation rate to Warren’s 32%. Both of them dominated in their win against the Lions last week. Warren rushed for 143 yards on 14 carries, scoring 2 touchdowns. Gainwell rushed for 50 yards on 9 carries, and caught 5 of 7 targets for 78 receiving yards. He also scored a touchdown. They will face a Browns defense that on the season ranks 2nd best in EPA/Rush, but has fallen off a cliff as of late. Since week 10, the Browns are allowing the 8th most rushing yards per game (136). James Cook rushed 16 times for 117 yards and 2 touchdowns against them last week. The Steelers are 3-point road favorites and this game has just a 34-point implied total. DK Metcalf is also suspended for 2 games. I expect the Steelers to pound the rock as they fight for playoff positioning. Lines aren’t open yet, but I expect them to both have solid games.

Suggested Pick:

TBD

 

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Scottie Miller, Adam Thielen

DK Metcalf is suspended 2 games after throwing a punch at a fan, while Calvin Austin is ruled out with a hamstring injury. In the 2nd half last week where Austin did not play, outside of DK, Valdes-Scantling ran the most routes, followed by Scottie Miller. During that half, Scottie caught 3 of 3 targets for 19 yards. Thielen caught 1 of 1 targets for 17 yards. Valdes-Scantling caught 1 of 2 targets for 6 yards. Tough to have much conviction in this wide receiver room, especially with just 2 quarters of sample size (this was with DK). Watching this game live, Scottie Miller looked like he had a solid connection with Rodgers and I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees the highest targets out of the WRs this week. Overall, this is not a great matchup against the Browns who have allowed the fewest receiving yards per game (164.1). They have been more susceptible on the ground. I’m not going to get into any splits as none of these guys have a large enough sample size in this situation. Lines aren’t up yet, but if I were to pick 1 guy to produce, it’d be Scottie Miller. Expect a ton of usage from the Steelers TEs.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

TE Pat Freiermuth/Jonnu Smith/Darnell Washington

With DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin out for the Steelers, I’d expect a lot of 2 or 3 TE sets for the Steelers. We have now gone 9 weeks without a TE leading the team in routes in back to back weeks. Last week, Freiermuth led the Steelers with a 48.9% route participation rate, followed by Washington at 37.8%. The Steelers are 3-point road favorites against the Browns with an extremely low 34-point implied total. The Browns rank 5th best in EPA/Pass and have allowed the fewest passing yards per game (164.1). The Browns have been more susceptible to TEs on the margin, allowing the 14th fewest receiving yards per game. In the head-to-head matchup in week 6, Washington was the most productive, catching 3 of 5 targets for 62 receiving yards. Jonnu Smith caught 3 of 4 targets for 18 yards. Freiermuth caught 1 of 1 target for 11 yards. Jonnu led the team in route rate that week, followed by Darnell. Considering Jonnu has fallen a bit out of favor as of late, with below a 30% route participation rate in 3 straight weeks, my best guess is that Darnell will be most productive. Receiving lines aren’t up yet but I wouldn’t mind a long shot on him.

Suggested Pick:

TBD
Darnell Washington Anytime Touchdown (+550)

QB Shedeur Sanders

Sanders continues to struggle to convert volume into efficiency, completing 20/29 for just 157 yards (5.4 YPA) with 2 interceptions against Buffalo in Week 16. Through five starts, he’s accounted for multiple touchdowns only once and has yet to clear 200 passing yards in four of those games. Pittsburgh is an aggressive, man-heavy defense that ranks top-five in man coverage rate, and while Sanders averages a solid 8.70 YPA versus man, his -11.1% CPOE in those looks highlights how inconsistent his accuracy has been when forced to win outside of structure. The Steelers also allowed Dillon Gabriel just 221 scoreless yards in this matchup earlier in the season, and despite giving up raw passing volume league-wide, they’ve done a good job limiting efficiency and splash plays at the position.

Suggested Play:

'U' 178.5 Pass Yards (-120)

 

RB Dylan Sampson

Judkins’ devastating knee injury in Week 16 effectively ends his season, forcing Cleveland to reshuffle the backfield on short notice. Raheim Sanders and Trayveon Williams split work after Judkins exited, while Dylan Sampson remains questionable after missing multiple practices. Even if Cleveland tries to establish the run, Pittsburgh has been stout up front, ranking middle-of-the-pack in rushing yards allowed and recently holding Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to just 16 combined rushing yards. This is shaping up as a committee backfield against a defense that excels at early-down run fits and forcing backs to win in the passing game.

Suggested Play:

'U' 42.5 Rush Yards (-120)

 

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jeudy remains Cleveland’s primary perimeter weapon, but his efficiency continues to lag behind his volume. Against man coverage, he’s posted a modest 0.22 fantasy points per route run, and Pittsburgh’s corners are comfortable pressing receivers at the line and forcing throws into tight windows. While the Steelers allow passing yards in aggregate, they’ve consistently limited wide receivers from converting targets into touchdowns, and Jeudy has topped 60 receiving yards just twice in his last eight games. With Sanders struggling to push the ball downfield, Jeudy’s ceiling looks capped in this matchup.

Suggested Play: 

'U' 30.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

 

TE Harold Fannin

Fannin has quietly become the most reliable piece of Cleveland’s passing game, reaching 12+ FP in four straight contests and posting 3+ receptions in 10 of his last 11 games. He torched Pittsburgh earlier this season with a 7/81 receiving line, and he continues to thrive against man coverage, averaging 1.64 YPRR and a strong .24 TPRR in those looks. With the Browns likely to struggle protecting Sanders on the perimeter, Fannin profiles as the primary safety valve over the middle and in the red zone.

Suggested Play:

'O' 5.5 Receptions (+110)

With the Ravens getting a win yesterday it's leading up for that Week 18 Ravens vs Steelers for a playoff spot. That's what the NFL wants and honestly it's hard to fade that 

 

Best Bet: Browns +3.5 -110
Lean: Over 34.5 -125

Anytime TD Picks

Darnell Washington (Steelers) +470

Harold Fannin (Browns) +245

Fannin has become the most consistent scoring threat in Cleveland’s offense over the last month, finding the end zone in multiple ways and recording at least 12 FP in four straight games. He continues to command steady usage in high-leverage situations, particularly in the red zone and on third downs, where Shedeur Sanders has shown a clear preference for targeting the tight end when plays break down. Pittsburgh’s defense leans heavily on man coverage, and Fannin has already proven he can exploit that look, posting 7/81 receiving against the Steelers earlier this season and adding a rushing touchdown just last week. With Cleveland likely struggling to sustain drives and generate explosive perimeter plays, Fannin profiles as the safest bet to capitalize on short-field or goal-to-go opportunities.

 

1st Touchdown: 

Dylan Sampson (Browns) +750

Sampson is a high-upside first touchdown option given the uncertainty and churn in Cleveland’s backfield. With Quinshon Judkins dealing with a serious leg injury and Raheim Sanders and Trayveon Williams splitting snaps last week, Sampson has a clear path to being featured early if he’s active and cleared to play. Cleveland is likely to script a conservative opening drive against Pittsburgh’s aggressive front, leaning on quick-hitting runs and misdirection to avoid putting Shedeur Sanders in obvious passing situations. Sampson’s burst and ability to hit creases make him a strong candidate to cash in on the first sustained drive, especially if the Browns reach the red zone early and opt for fresh legs near the goal line.

Darnell Washington (Steelers) +1600

Parlay #1 (Steelers) +932

Darnell Washington Anytime Touchdown
Aaron Rodgers Under 182.5 Passing Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Browns) 

Dylan Sampson 'U' 42.5 Rush Yards

Harold Fannin 'O' 5.5 Receptions

Shedeur Sanders 'U' 178.5 Pass Yards

QB Drake Maye

Maye is averaging 263.1 passing yards per game, 8.71 YPA and a 70.9% completion rate. He’s thrown 25 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He’ll face a Jets defense that ranks 4th worst in EPA/Pass but has allowed the 13th fewest passing yards per game (208.7). The Patriots have a massive 28.25 implied team total. The Jets have the 3rd lowest pressure rate in the NFL (33.5%) despite blitzing at a top 6 rate. Maye averages an elite 9.07 YPA, a 78.5% completion rate and a 118.3 QB rating when not pressured. The Jets have a top 5 rate of man coverage frequency (33.8%). Maye torches man, averaging 9.76 YPA, a 64.2% completion rate and a 120 QB rating. In the head-to-head earlier this season, Maye completed 25 of 34 attempts for 281 passing yards and a touchdown. I like Drake Maye to have a huge game despite the massive spread.

Suggested Pick:

Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-115)

 

RB Treveyon Henderson

Henderson left last game early with a concussion. However, Henderson has been practicing all week and it looks like he will be good to go on Sunday, he’s listed as questionable. If he can’t go, Rhamondre will be the bell cow. Since week 8 and excluding last week, Henderson is averaging 88.6 rushing yards per game, 6.20 YPC and a 8% explosive run rate. The Patriots have a massive 28.25 implied team total and are 13.5-point favorites. He’ll face a Jets team that ranks 10th worst in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 5th most rushing yards per game (133). Treveyon had 93 all purpose yards and 3 touchdowns against the Jets in the first matchup this season. That was without Rhamondre, now he’ll likely have a 50-50 split with him. He caught 5 of 5 targets for 31 receiving yards in that game. Henderson has been extremely productive on zone concept runs, averaging 7.31 YPC and a 59.4% success rate since week 8. The Jets are allowing the 11th most YPC (4.42) but the 7th lowest success rate (44.7%) against zone concept on the season. Henderson’s lines aren’t up yet, but expect a huge game if he’s good to go! If he’surprisngly held out, Rhamondre should have an excellent opportunity to produce.

Suggested Pick:

TBD

 

WR Stefon Diggs

Diggs exploded last week, catching 9 of 10 targets for 138 receiving yards against the Ravens. Boutte and Hollins have been ruled out, which means Diggs will likely need to carry a heavier workload. He’s averaging 57.9 receiving yards per game, 2.39 YPRR and 25% TPRR. He leads the team in 1st-read rate at 22.2%. He’ll face a Jets defense that ranks 4th worst in EPA/Pass but has allowed the 13th fewest passing yards per game (208.7). The Patriots have a massive 28.25 implied team total. He has lined up out of the slot on 54.4% of his routes. The Jets allow the 12th most YPRR to the slot (1.82). That compares to the 8th most YPRR against wide alignment (2.04). The Jets have the 3rd lowest pressure rate in the NFL (33.5%) despite blitzing at a top 6 rate. The Jets have a top 5 rate of man coverage frequency (33.8%). When Maye is not pressured, Diggs averages 3.47 YPRR and 36% TPRR. Against man, Diggs averages 2.85 YPRR and 28% TPRR. Despite being 2 touchdown favorites, I expect this offense to be firing on all cylinders and wouldn’t be surprised if Maye tries to pad his stats in an effort to win MVP.

Suggested Pick:

Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

TE Hunter Henry

Henry is averaging 44.2 receiving yards per game, 1.63 YPRR, 19% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 18.6%. Boutte and Hollins have been ruled out for the Patriots, so Henry will likely see a higher target share. He’ll face a Jets defense that ranks 4th worst in EPA/Pass but has allowed the 13th fewest passing yards per game (208.7). The Patriots have a massive 28.25 implied team total. The Jets against TEs in particular are middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed. The Jets have the 3rd lowest pressure rate in the NFL (33.5%) despite blitzing at a top 6 rate. The Jets have a top 5 rate of man coverage frequency (33.8%). When Maye is not pressured, Henry averages 2.18 YPRR and 23% TPRR. Against man, Henry averages 1.22 YPRR and 20% TPRR. Despite being 2 touchdown favorites, I expect this offense to be firing on all cylinders and wouldn’t be surprised if Maye tries to pad his stats in an effort to win MVP.

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (-105)
Anytime Touchdown (+120)

QB Brady Cook

We have now essentially seen Brady Cook play 3 games, outside of the first drive against the Dolphins when Tyrod Taylor got hurt. Cook is averaging 175.7 passing yards per game, 5.38 YPA and a 59.2% completion rate. He’s thrown 1 touchdown and 6 interceptions. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 11th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 11th fewest passing yards per game (202). The Jets are 13.5-point home underdogs. The Patriots have the 11th highest pressure rate in the NFL (39.5%). Their top 3 coverages in terms of tendency are Cover 3 (27.6%), Cover 1 (24.5%) and Cover 2 (22.1%). Cook averages 1.36 YPA and a 27.3% completion rate on 34 dropbacks when pressured. That compares to 5.89 YPA and a 63.2% completion rate when not pressured. Against the Patriots top 3 coverages, Cook averages 5.65 YPA and a 63.5% completion rate. He’ll likely have a lot of volume as heavy underdogs, but I like the under longest pass angle here.

Suggested Pick:

Under 28.5 Yard Longest Pass (-110)

 

RB Breece Hall

The Jets have been blown out by 23, 28 and 24 points in the past 3 weeks, which has directly impacted Hall’s production, rushing for 54, 23 and 43 yards respectively. Likely another bearish game script here as 13.5-point underdogs against the Patriots. Breece is averaging 63.6 rushing yards per game, 4.17 YPC and has a 6.6% explosive run rate. Hall has had just a 54.4% and 61.9% snap rates the past 2 weeks, after being above 70% in the previous 5 weeks. The Patriots rank 16th in EPA/Rush but have allowed the 6th fewest rushing yards per game (100.1). From a receiving matchup, the Patriots are middle of the pack in yards allowed to RB. Hall has just 8 targets in the past 4 games, I don’t have much trust in his role here. I’m fading Hall in what should be an awful game script and not an easy matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

 

WR Adonai Mitchell

Mitchell has at least 6 targets in 6 of 6 games with the Jets. He’s run a route on 78.5% of dropbacks. AD is averaging 46.5 receiving yards per game, 1.52 YPRR and 25% TPRR as a member of the Jets. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 11th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 11th fewest receiving yards per game (202). The Jets are 13.5-point home underdogs. In the first matchup, between these 2 teams, the Patriots played man coverage at a high rate (45.5%). They also played single-high at a 66.7% rate. Mitchell has been targeted on 34% of his routes as a member of the Jets against man coverage. Against single-high, Mitchell averages 1.27 YPRR and 30% TPRR. Mitchell has been the most consistent Jets player the past 6 games.

Suggested Pick:

Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

 

TE Jeremy Ruckert

With Taylor out the past 2 week, Ruckert has led the TE group in route participation rate at 46.3% and 45.5%. In the past 5 weeks, he’s averaging 2.4 receptions and 16.2 receiving yards per game. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 11th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 11th fewest receiving yards per game (202). The Jets are 13.5-point home underdogs. The Patriots specifically allow the 10th most receiving yards and 10th most receptions to TE. In the first head to head matchup, Ruckert caught 4 of 5 targets for 23 receiving yards. With just a 12.5 yard receiving line, I lean over.

Suggested Pick:

Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Drake Maye is in the running for MVP and coach Vrabel always has this team ready, expect them to role here against a tanking Jets team that has nothing to play for.

Best Bet: Patriots -13.5
Lean: Over 42.5
Patriots 35 Jets 10

Anytime TD Picks

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +125

Adonai Mitchell (Jets) +380

1st Touchdown

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +700

Adonai Mitchell (Jets) +2200

Parlay #1 (Patriots) +361

Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards
Stefon Diggs 60+ Receiving Yards
Hunter Henry 5+ Receptions

 

Parlay #2 (Jets) +225

Adonai Mitchell Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
Breece Hall Under 59.5 Rushing Yards

 

Parlay #3 (Longshot) +1361

Adonai Mitchell Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
Breece Hall Under 59.5 Rushing Yards
Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards
Hunter Henry 5+ Receptions
Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown

QB Tyler Shough

Believe it or not, one of the best props on the board can be found in Sunday's game when the Saints visit the Titans in Nashville. 8 of 9 quarterbacks have hit Tyler Shough's passing line. The only one who didn't was Chris Oladukon, whoever that is!! In addition, Shough is over this number in 5 of 6 starts, including 4 of 4 when he's recorded 31+ passes or more (265 pass YPG). The last two QBs prior to Oladukon combined for 600 passing yards. The big intangible here is Shough will be without both Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal, leaving the New Orleans backfield in shambles. The last time Tyler Shough was without Kamara and Neal the Saints completely abandoned their running game and Shough threw the ball 49 times. This is a similar spot here in Week 17.

Suggested Bet:

Tyler Shough 220+ Pass Yards (-121)

 

RB Audric Estime

This plays right into the script I'm expecting from Tyler Shough. The Saints will once again be withou the services of both Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal, and will turn to Audric Estime out of the backfield. He will face a Tennessee defense that allows 8.8 yards less than the New York Jets, who Estime went up against last week. In that game, New Orleans nearly abandoned the run game and Estime had a total of just 5 carries for 19 yards, while recording 8 touches for the game. He's averaging only 3.7 YPC for the season, and will be on the road for this game. Considering he's playing the Titans, it's not totally out of the question for Audric Estime to bust out a big run, but I wouldn't suggest putting your money down on a third-string RB who is playing on a 5-10 team.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

 

WR Chris Olave

Chris Olave fits today's script perfectly. The Titans rank 27th in passing yards allowed this season, and today should be a competitve game between two pretty bad teams. There's still a lot to prove, but New Orleans just might have found a quarterback in Tyler Shough. But no matter the starting QB, Chris Olave is going to be targeted. He has the 6th most catches in the NFL and is the 5th most targeted receiver in the league. He's recorded 6+ catches in 9 of 15 games, and is coming off a Week 17 games vs the New York Jets where he saw 10 targets. I look for Olave to continue to his volume and production against a very poor Tennessee defense that has been shredded all season long through the air.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Olave o5.5 Receptions (-115)

Chris Olave 7+ ALT Receptions (+158)

Chris Olave 8+ ALT REceptions (+290)

 

TE Juwan Johnson

Despite facing one of the worst pass defenses in the league in Tennesse, the Saints receiving corps is so banged that Draft Kings isn't even listing props outside of Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson. I warned everyone about Johnson last week, and despite a line of 3.5 receptions against the Jets, he pulled down 8 of 9 targets for 89 yards. I've never seen a tight end who is capable of producing to the level of Johnson be so up and down in all the years I've been watching and now covering football. That said, he's posted 4+ receptions in six straight games now (8, 4, 4, 5, 6, 4), and he's the only reliable option for Shough right now outside of WR Chris Olave. I would still be careful here. Johnson is always capable of 6-8 catches and 60+ yards, but we've also seen him fall flat, recording four games of 3 catches and 30 receiving yards or less. That said, the one common denominator in his success has been Tyler Shough, who in five games has looked for Johnson at a rate of 6.6 TPG. With no reliable #2 WR in the lineup, I look for Juwan to record positive numbers today. Still, I would play this safe and tread lightly.

Suggested Bet:

Juwan Johnson Parlay (-125)

4+ Receptions & 40+ Rec Yards

Anytime TD Picks:

Chris Olave (Saints): +160

 

First TD Scorer:

Chris Olave (Saints) +1000

Parlay #1 (Saints) +500

Tyler Shough 200+ Pass Yards

Juwan Johnson 40+ Rec Yards

Chris Olave 5+ Receptions

Chris Olave Anytime TD

QB Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence has really locked in of late. Even in a brutal matchup against Denver, he was good. He finished 23 of 36 for 279 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He added 6 carries for 20 yards and a touchdown. Has Liam Coen figured Lawrence out?! On the season, Lawrence is 296 of 493 (60% catch rate) for 3,489 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He owns a 69.08 aDOT, 70.8 yards per attempt and an 89.9 passer rating. He has a 2.64% turnover-worthy throw rate and 9.13% drop rate by pass catchers. I’m not going to lie, earlier this season I was wondering if Jacksonville could win by hiding Lawrence’s flaws. He’s really turned it around this season. Lawrence has had 3 throwing touchdowns and 1+ rushing touchdowns with no interceptions. That’s only the third time it’s happened in NFL history. Purdy just destroyed this Colts defense without its top two corners and I don’t see why Lawrence wouldn't too. The Colts have allowed the 5th most yards per pass attempt (7.9) the last five weeks. IND also runs a lot of man coverage, which Lawrence ranks 3rd best against in terms of passer grading. The biggest concern is they grab a lead and don’t have to look back. They have been a run-heavy offense all season.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-140)

 

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
With Tuten out for the season, there is no longer a question of who will get almost all of the carries in this offense. Etienne handled about 83% of the backfield touches last week. He rushed 16 times for 50 yards last week and added 4 catches for 26 yards and a touchdown. In the first matchup with IND Etienne rushed 20 times for 74 yards and two rushing touchdowns. On the season, Etienne has rushed 229 times for 999 yards and 7 touchdowns. He’s averaging 4.36 yards per carry, a 3.93 explosive run rate and a 46.72% success rate. Last week IND allowed 5.3 yards per carry and 137 rushing yards to the SF backfield. His rushing totals have gotten to a point where they are hard to back. It’s over or pass for me.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110) - LEAN

 

WR Jakobi Meyers
Meyers has been such a steady presence for Lawrence and the two built chemistry almost immediately. Having a short to midrange target has been key for Lawrence’s success. Meyers caught 4 of 8 targets for 45 yards last week. This season, he has 64 catches on 90 targets (71% catch rate) for 752 yards and a 21.1% target share. He’s averaging 11.75 yards per reception and 4.38 yards after the catch per reception. Since becoming a full-time player in Jacksonville, Meyer owns a 25% target rate and 1.9 yards per route run. Unfortunately, He has 50 or fewer receiving yards in 4 of 7 games. He reeled in 4 of 10 targets last meeting with IND for 39 yards and a touchdown. The lines look right to me so I’m not seeing a ton of value. If you are looking for a play, over 4.5 receptions is likely the one.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-145) - LEAN

 

WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr. was quiet last week with just a pair of catches for 18 yards on 3 targets. This season continues to be a season to forget from the second-year player. This season, BTJ owns 41 receptions on 77 targets (53% target rate) for 619 yards and 2 touchdowns. Is BTJ the most disappointing player this season? He might be. He only owns a 23% first-read rate and 18% target share. His 10.4% drop rate is extremely concerning. Slot wide receiver, Parker Washington, had a much more productive day than BTJ. He is still the deep threat in this offense. He’s averaging about 13 air yards per target with a deep target on ~20% of opportunities. There’s upside, but also plenty of volatility revolving around him. The last time BTJ played IND he caught 3 of 6 targets for 87 yards. If I’m looking to back him it’s receiving yards, but I’ll choose to fade his receptions.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-130)

 

TE Brenton Strange
Strange had 5 receptions for 39 yards and a touchdown. Am I mad for him ruining my parlay of 40+ receiving yards when he lost it on a -1 yard catch at 40 yards? YUP. I still love the tape. He looks like a potential Kittle-type player. He owned a 20% target share - his second highest mark of the season. This season he has 37 catches on 49 targets (75.5% catch rate) for 434 yards and 2 touchdowns. He owns a 115.5 passer rating when targeted and is averaging 11.73 yards per reception and 8.86 yards per target. The yards per target is why he’s not like a traditional tight end. He’s used much more downfield like a receiver. Last time he played IND he only caught 3 of 6 targets for 27 yards. IND allows the 6th most targets (8.67), 5th most receptions (6.27) and 2nd most receiving yards this season. Giddy up for Strange again.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

QB Phillip Rivers
We were all over Rivers’ low passing lines last week and cashed the full ladder (up to +1500). As you could have guessed, the books have adjusted heavily since them. His passing lines are up over 200 after landing at just 160 last week. After a super run heavy approach in Rivers’ first week, they came out throwing last week and Rivers’ chewed up a weak 49ers secondary for most of the night. He finished 23 of 36 for 277 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Unfortunately, the interception did result in six points, but it was an impressive night overall for the 44-year old. In two games, Rivers is 41 of 62 (66% completion rate) for 397 yards with a 86.6 passer rating. Not bad for a guy off the couch after 5 years! The matchup is another pass funnel, but a much more difficult one. Jacksonville is allowing the lowest yards per pass attempt (5.7) to opposing QB’s and the second lowest touchdown rate. They have allowed some big passing games though: Bo Nix last week (352 passing yards and one touchdown), Jacoby Brisett (317 yards, TD) and Davis Mills (292, 2 TD). However, they do bring a lot more pressure than SF brought last week, which could be a problem for a QB with no mobility and almost exclusively playing out of shotgun. At this point in the season why not let Rivers’ air it out. I think they come out with another pass-heavy attack and I’m not sure his yardage prop is high enough yet.

 Suggested Picks
‘O’ 204.5 Passing Yards (-110)

 

RB Jonathan Taylor
Taylor continues his late season slide from the surefire top running back in the league. He walked away last week with just 16 carries for 46 yards, but did add a touchdown. He also reeled in all three targets for 33 yards. Taylor has averaged just 3.5 yards per carry over the past five weeks. As mentioned with the Rivers write-up, this offense runs primarily through shotgun now. That does not bode well for Taylor’s rushing efficiency. On shotgun runs, he holds 4.6 yards per carry and a 40.2% success rate. When he’s not running out of shotgun, he averages a better 6.0 yards per carry and 48.7% success rate. In the first matchup, Taylor rushed 21 times for 74 yards and a touchdown, but averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. JAC is allowing the fewest rushing yards per game this season and 4th lowest yards per carry (3.9). In that matchup he did not record a catch, but he’s been a good outlet option for Rivers who just can;t push the ball down the field. I’m either looking to fade his rushing/attempt totals or back his receptions prop here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-138)

 

WR Alec Pierce
Pierce showed us all last week that despite little downfield ability from Rivers, he’s still a part of this offensive gameplan. He caught all 4 targets for 86 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He leads the league with 20.3 yards per receptions. That will certainly slip down with Rivers at quarterback, but he really does look like the wide receiver #1 in this offense. Pierce, on the season, has 43 receptions for 871 yards (60.6% catch rate) and 4 touchdowns. He’s averaging a 17.1% target rate, a 28% team yardage share and 3.58 yards after the catch per reception. He owns a high 110.7 passer rating when targeted. As we mentioned, JAC is a pass funnel. Pierce played mostly on the outside (90.3%). Jacksonville has allowed the third most targets to outside wide receivers and 6th most receiving yards per game (108.2). Pierce is the true WR1 in this offense.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Despite a good effort from Rivers’, Pittman didn’t benefit. He hauled in 4 catches on 5 targets for 32 yards. This season Pittman has 76 receptions on 101 targets (75% catch rate) with 7 touchdowns and 757 yards. He owns a 21% target rate, 9.96 yards per target and 3.64 yards after the catch per reception. He’s consumed about 21% of the team yardage share and holds a 8.5 aDOT. In the Rivers era (two games), Pittman has 10 targets, 7 catches and 58 yards. He did crush in the first matchup vs JAC with 9 catches on 12 targets for 79 yards. However, he’s just not involved enough to back. I think he’s become the WR2 in this offense.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Tyler Warren
Warren saw a ton of volume last week (9 targets), but only reeled in 3 catches for 30 yards. It was a great matchup for Warren and he did not take advantage of it in terms of production. Over the past five weeks he only has compiled 16 receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown. Warren has had a good rookie season with 66 receptions on 95 targets (69% catch rate) for 748 yards and four touchdowns. He’s averaging 5.88 aDOT, 11.33 yards per receptions and only a 3.16% drop rate. He was primarily effective with play-action. With play-action he was targeted on almost 37% of routes and averaged 3.7 yards per route. Without play-action he has a 17.5% target share and 1.01 yards per route. In the first matchup, he only reeled in 2 catches on 6 targets for 15 yards. I’m not looking to back his higher totals here.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 5.5 Receptions (-135)

Best Bet: JAC Jaguars -5.5
Lean: Total over 47.0
Score: JAC 27 - IND 20

I love what I saw out of Rivers last week and I've spent time fading the Jags much of the season. These two teams aren't particularly close. Trevor and this offense looks unstopabble right now and the addition of Meyers has been immense. The Colts defense was absolutely shredded last week and I think that'll happen again without their top two corners. Not to mention, Jacksonville's defense has been excellent and their strongest point is limiting the run, which is IND's biggest asset. The Colts just looked too overmatched here.

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Jaguars): Travis Etienne -165
I know, this is juicy, but it’s hard not to see Etienne score this week.  Etienne handled about 83% of the backfield touches last week and with Tuten out of the way there really is no competition for carries in this backfield. Last week IND allowed 5.3 yards per carry and 137 rushing yards to the SF backfield. Etienne has scored six touchdowns in the last three weeks. Let’s not overthink this one.

Longshot (Colts): Alec Pierce +305
I was really worried about Philip not being able to throw the long ball for Pierce’s stock. He proved us wrong last week with a pair of touchdowns. He’s more than just a deep threat and he can open in a phone booth. As we mentioned, JAC is a pass funnel. Pierce played mostly on the outside (90.3%). Jacksonville has allowed the third most targets to outside wide receivers and 6th most receiving yards per game (108.2). In a game script where they may be playing from behind early, Pierce should be the go to guy.

1st Touchdown: 

Best Bet (Colts): Jonathan Taylor +425
It’s a really tough matchup again for Taylor, but I have to take a shot at this price. He pretty much owns the backfield work and goal line work. With no Jones, he doesn’t have to worry about being vultured either. He is still an extremely explosive player and could break a long touchdown in both the run and pass game. He’s worth taking a shot on at this price.

Longshot (Jaguars): Parker Washington +1500
Washington was great last week against a really good Denver defense. He torched Denver’s secondary last week, hauling in six of a team-leading ten targets for a career-best 145 receiving yards. He also opened the scoring in Week 16, snagging his fourth touchdown of the season on a 12-yard strike from Trevor Lawrence late in the first quarter. Washington is set up well again this week from the slot—where he runs 64% of his routes—against a Colts defense that surrenders the league’s fourth-highest reception rate to slot receivers (42%) and the fifth-most yards per target (8.6).

Parlay #1 (Jaguars): +350
JAC Jaguars -8.5
Brenton Strange 30+ Receiving Yards
Trevor Lawrence 2+ Passing Touchdowns

Parlay #2 (Colts): +888
Philip Rivers 250+ Passing Yards
Tyler Warren 'U' 5.5 Receptions
JAC Jaguars ML

QB Baker Mayfield

Joe Burrow had his best game of the season against Miami last week; Baker and Bucs face the same Dolphins team in Week 17. While Mayfield and the offense have been able to recapture their early-season success in the back half of the regular season, this matchup suggests a possible high-scoring week for Tampa Bay, which needs a win to stay in the playoff hunter after a pivotal loss to Carolina in Week 16. Miami is yielding a league-high 71.5% completion rate and 7.5 YPPA. Between the impressive return of Mike Evans, along with Chris Godwin and rookie Emeka Egbuka, I look for Baker to get the Bucs back on track against the Dolphins. With that said, the Buccaneers seem dead set on getting the running game going too, so I'm playing this safer and going with Mayfield for a pair of touchdowns.

Suggested Bet:

Baker Mayfield o1.5 Pass TDs (-121)

 

RB Bucky Irving

Bucky Irving logged 19 carries for 71 yards in Week 16 at Carolina, while leading the Bucs in snaps, carries and routes. The second-year running back had a 61% snap share, along with a 58% carry share against the Panthers. This week he will face a Dolphins defense that is allowing the 8th most rushing YPG (105.9) and 6th most receiving YPG (38.5) to opposing RBs. Falcons RB, Bijan Robinson tore up Miami's defense for 175 yards from scrimmage just two weeks ago. Bucky Irving will have a big workload this Sunday againsat a Dolphins team who is well-beyond ready for the season to be over.

Suggested Bet:

Bucky Irving o82.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-114)

 

WR Mike Evans

Since returning to the Bucs lineup, Mike Evans is averaging 10+ targets per game. During this span, he ranks 3rd overall in target rate (32.7%) and 12th in red zone target share (27.6%). He will face a Miami defense that allows the 8th most passing touchdowns per game (1.7) this season. This Sunday is an absolute MUST win for Tampa Bay, and despite how talented the Buccaneers WR corps is, Baker Mayfield only has the full, complete trust in one guy, and that is Mike Evans. He's also an easier target to get the ball if he falls under pressure.

Suggested Bet:

Mike Evans Anytime TD (+140)

 

WR Emeka Egbuka

While it's not necessarily all his fault, Emeka Egbuka has fallen off greatly since the beginning of the season. A banged up offensive line hasn't done him any favors, and the Bucs rookie has the highest percentage of inaccurate passes by any WR thrown his way. At the same, time he hasn't capitalized when QB Baker Mayfield has needed him. In fact, Egbuka has the league's highest rate of dropped passes among NFL wide receiver's. He simply cannot be trusted right now, and that was made evident last Sunday when he had just a 50% route share against Carolina, catching only one ball for 40 yards. Even Jalen McMillan had more routes and a higher targets share than Egbuka last week, which speaks volume about the lack of confidene the offense has in him right now. Emeka has a bright future ahead of him, but he's an extremely dangerous play going forward for the remainder of this football season.

Suggested Bet:

Emeka Egbuka u3.5 Receptions (-161)

 

WR Chris Godwin

Last week, Tampa Bay condensed its starting wide receiver room to only Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Only Godwin and Evans had route shares above 73% last week. Godwin logged a 76.7% route share with a 23.1% target share, 30 receiving yards, 1.30 yards per route run, and a 33.3% first-read share. Godwin maintained his role in the slot, running 65.2% of his routes from the inside. Since Week 13, Godwin has had an 18.6% target share, 45.8 receiving yards per game, 1.69 yards per route run, and a 24% first-read share. In those four games, Godwin has had four red zone targets and one deep target with three top-36 weekly finishes (WR33, WR27, WR24). This week, he's a strong play again. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers. While I expect Mike Evans to see the majority of targets inside the 20, Godwin has great value moving the ball up the field this Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Godwin o36.5 Rec Yards (-113)

QB Quinn Ewers

Rookie 7th rounder Quinn Ewers made his first career start last week. He completed 20 of 30 attempts for 260 passing yards and 2 interceptions against the Bengals. The Bengals rank 3rd worst in EPA/Pass allowed. Ewers will face a Bucs defense that ranks 12th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th most passing yards per game (242). The Dolphins are 6-point road underdogs with a 20.5-point implied total. The Bucs blitz at a top 5 rate (32.6%) and are 7th in pressure rate (41%). Ewers was blitzed just 12.9% of the time against the Bengals. This could cause problems here for a rookie QB in his 2nd start. Miami continued their trend of being one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL, ranking 4th lowest in pass rate over expected on the season. They had a -13.7% pass rate over expected in Ewers first start. I’ll fade Ewers here.

Suggested Pick:

Under 207.5 Passing Yards (-114)

 

RB De’Von Achane

In the first game that Quinn Ewers took over for Tua, Achane rushed 15 times for 81 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. He was targeted just 3 times for 9 receiving yards. On the season, Achane averages 84.5 rushing yards per game on 5.76 YPC. He leads the league in explosive rush rate amongst qualified RBs at 10%. 46.5% of his yards (589) come on explosive plays. The Dolphins are 6-point road underdogs with a 20.5-point implied total. Miami ranks 4th in pass rate over expected on the season, they remained extremely run heavy last week in Ewers first start, with a -13.7% pass rate over expected. Achane will face a Bucs defense that ranks 6th best in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 7th fewest rushing yards per game. Dowdle and Hubbard combined for just 56 rushing yards on 15 attempts last week against the Bucs. The Bucs have been vulnerable to RBs in the receiving game, allowing the most receiving yards per game and the 7th most receptions. However, last week did not provide a lot of confidence that Ewers will look his way, as Achane had just a 10.3% target share. That compares to a 19.5% target share with Tua playing. That same reduction in receiving volume has been true with other backup QBs as well. Despite Achane playing extremely well as of late, I’ll fade his rushing in a tough matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Under 73.5 Rushing Yards (-117)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Prior to Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, Waddle averaged 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.75 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 25.6% 1st-read rate. In the 11 games without Tyreek, Waddle is averaging 65.9 receiving yards per game, 2.77 YPRR, 29% TPRR and a 32.2% 1st-read rate. In Ewers first start last week, Waddle caught 5 of 9 targets for 72 receiving yards. He averaged 3.27 YPRR, was targeted on 41% of his routes and had a 34.8% 1st-read rate. Waddle will face a Bucs defense that ranks 12th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th most receiving yards per game (242). Waddle has lined up out wide on 75.8% of his routes. Tampa allows the 12th most receiving yards per game to wide alignment (108.9). The Dolphins are 6-point road underdogs with a 20.5-point implied total. The Bucs blitz at a top 5 rate (32.6%) and are 7th in pressure rate (41%). Waddle ran just 4 routes last week when Ewers was blitzed, and was targeted once. I don’t have as much confidence Ewers will have as much yardage as last week in a tougher matchup on the margin, but I expect him to pepper Waddle.

Suggested Pick:

Over 3.5 Receptions (-175)
Over 4.5 Receptions (+138)

 

TE Darren Waller

Waller caught 3 of 5 targets for 40 yards in Ewers first career start. This was the best possible matchup for TEs against the Bengals. Waller has been between a 51% and 66% route participation rate since his return in week 13. Dulcich has been running a route on about a 3rd of dropbacks during this time. On the season, Waller is averaging 35.4 receiving yards per game, 2.07 YPRR and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. He’s been targeted in the endzone 7 times in 8 games and has 6 total TDs. He’ll face a  Tampa defense that allows the 12th most receiving yards per game to wide alignment (108.9). The Dolphins are 6-point road underdogs with a 20.5-point implied total. The Bucs have allowed the 12th most receiving yards and the 4th most receiving TDs to TE this season. I don’t have as much faith in this passing game this week as Ewers is making his 2nd career start against a better Bucs pass defense that is capable of pressuring the QB. The Bengals barely blitzed Ewers last week. I don’t like his receiving yards line but I’ll take a longshot on his anytime touchdown at those odds.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (+250)

Buccaneers will dominate this one. Don't overthink it.

Best Bet: Buccaneers -5.5 -120
Longshot: Over 44.5 -120

Anytime TD Picks

Darren Waller (Dolphins) +250

Mike Evans (Buccaneers) +140

 

First TD Scorer

Darren Waller (Dolphins) +1400

Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) +750

Parlay #1 (Dolphins) +623

Quinn Ewers u205.5 Passing Yards
Jaylen Waddle 5+ Receptions
De’Von Achane u73.5 Rushing Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Buccaneers) +750

Mike Evans Anytime TD
Bucky Irving 80+ Rush + Rec Yards
Chris Godwin 40+ Rec Yards

QB Sam Darnold
Darnold and Seattle barely won the overtime shootout against the Rams on Thursday night football. Darnold finished 22 of 34 for 270 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. The numbers look pretty good, but it’s the second time Darnold has struggled against this defense. This season Darnold has been good, completing 285 passes of 424 attempts (67% competition rate) for 3,703 yards, 24 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He holds a 8.7 aDOT and 8.73 yards per attempt. He has a 100.6 passer rating and only a 4.8% sack rate. This matchup shows some promise for Darnold. CAR runs a lot of single-high (10th most in the league) and Darnold holds the 5th highest passer grading against it. However, CAR’s defense has also been good against play-action which Darnold has thrived with. CAR is allowing a league-low 5.3 yards per attempt on play-action passes. Darnold leads the league in yards per pass attempt, yards per completion and is second in TD rate with play-action.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 18.5 Completions (-105)

 

RB Kenneth Walker III
The split continued with Walker and Charb last week. He carried the ball 11 times for 100 yards and a touchdown. He also caught 3 passes for 64 yards. He was awesome last week and reminded us why he should continue to get the bulk of the work in this backfield. After a really nice start to the season, CAR run defense has struggled. They are allowing the 5th highest yards per carry (4.8) to opposing running backs. They are also allowing the 11th highest explosive run rate (5.0%), which is Walker's calling card. This could easily be a run-heavy script if they grab an early lead and lean on the defense. Walker should be in for plenty of work here and I’ll look for him to keep his momentum.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 12.5 Carries (-110)

 

RB Zach Charbonnet
Despite Walker’s success, Charb still owned 56% of snaps and had 13 touches for 54 yards and a touchdown. He continues to be a goal line back and carried twice inside the five last week. On the season Charb has 149 carries for 546 yards and 9 touchdowns. Touchdowns have really been where he’s shined. His 3.66 yards per carry, 3.3% explosive run rate and 47% success rate have been unimpressive. He could certainly get plenty of work if we get the bad version of CAR’s offense, but he’s truly a touchdown or bust for me.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown (+110)

 

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
JSN continues to be the best wide receiver in the league. Last week he had 8 catches for 96 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. This season JSN has 104 receptions on 138 targets (75% catch rate) for 1,637 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s averaging 109 yards per game, 15.74 yards per target and 5.02 yards after the catch per reception. He’s the first-read on a crazy 43% on dropbacks. He only owns a 2.9% drop rate and a 32.2% target share. CAR plays a lot of zone defense (highest rate in the league). JSN owns the second highest yards per route against zone this season. They have allowed the 6th highest yards per target (9.1) and 14th highest touchdown rate. They did limit Puka Nacua this season to 6 catches on 72 yards, but JSN has been so good this season it’s back or pass.

Suggested Picks
‘O' 88.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Rashid Shaheed
Just after we started to trust Shaheed, he registered a zero-catch effort last week with a lone carry for 31 yards. He had a monster return touchdown in the game, but that doesn't help us here. This season Shaheed has 57 receptions on 87 targets (65.5% catch rate) for 677 yards and 2 touchdowns. He just hasn;t been reliable enough to be counted on by bettors. He’s been a great asset in special teams, but that doesn’t help us much.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE A.J. Barner
Barner reeled in 4 of 6 targets for 49 yards and a touchdown. He’d been on a scoring drought so it was nice to see him get in the endzone here. With Arroyo done for the season, Barner has seen an uptick in usage. He ran routes on almost 93% of dropbacks last week. This year, he’s caught 47 receptions on 58 targets (81% catch rate) for 462 yards and 5 touchdowns. He owns a 13.55% target share, 9.83 yards per reception and 121.4 passer rating when targeted. The matchup is solid, as CAR is allowing the 3rd highest yards per target (8.7) and the 5th highest catch rate (76.2%) to the position. Love his receptions here at a nice plus money price. 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (+120)

QB Bryce Young

Bryce Young has helped lead the Panthers to the top spot in the NFC South, however he was aided by an extremely favorable schedule from Week 11-16. This Sunday, the Carolina quarterback will have his hands full against a Seattle defense that pressures a ton, typically resulting in sacks or turnovers. While the Panthers could compete better than most are expecting, it won't be because of the QB play of Bryce Young, who has historically struggled in matchups such as this.

Suggested Bet:

Bryce Young o0.5 Interceptions (-149)

 

RB Rico Dowdle

After clearing a 70% snap share in three consecutive games from Weeks 9-11, Dowdle has not hit this number in a game since. His YPC has also dipped, going below 3.3 in 5 out of his last 6 games since Chuba Hubbard has once again become a factor in the Carolina backfield. Seattle has been the most difficult matchup this season for opposing RBs, and while Rico will most likely out-touch Hubbard, his lack of efficiency in tougher defensive matchups does not inspire confidence that he'll be able to move the ball on Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Rico Dowdle u46.5 Rush Yards (-115)

 

WR Tetaroia McMillan

The good news is Tetaroia McMillan is good to go for Week 17. The bad news is he will have to go opposite a much tougher defense than Tampa Bay when he lines up across the Seahawks this Sunday. Seattle has been dynamite vs receivers aligned out wide this season. Not only that, but Bryce Young's struggles against opposiing defenses that apply tons of pressure will be on display for everyone to see in this matchup, and his numbers aren't going to be pretty here. I would avoid Tet like the plague in this matchup.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

 

WR Jalen Coker

I am playing the under or just avoiding nearly every player prop for the Carolina Panthers this Sunday, despite playing at home vs Seattle. That said, there is one spot that I really like this Sunday, and that's Jalen Coker's longest reception of over 16.5 yards. The Panthers WR has cleared this number in 5 straight games, and in the last three weeks alone Coker has hauled in longs of 34, 32 and 34 yards. Carolina will struggle to move the ball against the Seahawks, but it doesn't mean they will get completely shut out. Bryce Young knows what a deep threat Coker is now, and he will continue looking to feed him downfield in this game. This is also a line that can be hit on an intermediate throw as well, so that gives this play even more added value. The Panthers are a 7-point underdog and with the Seahawks elite run defense, Young is going to have to take some chances here, and the chance of garbage time is just another added incentive to this prop.

Suggested Bet:

Jalen Coker o18.5 Longest Reception (-129)

Seattle wins this game. I just gave a hard time trust this Panthers offense. 

Best Bets: Seattle -6.5 -120
Lean: Over 42.5 -125

Anytime TD Picks

Rico Dowdle (Panthers) +200

Best Bet (Seahawks): Zach Charbonnet +110
Despite Walker’s success, Charb still owned 56% of snaps and had 13 touches for 54 yards and a touchdown. He continues to be a goal line back and carried twice inside the five last week. On the season Charb has 149 carries for 546 yards and 9 touchdowns. Touchdowns have really been where he’s shined. His 3.66 yards per carry, 3.3% explosive run rate and 47% success rate have been unimpressive. He could certainly get plenty of work if we get the bad version of CAR’s offense, which sets him up perfectly for a touchdown.

First TD Scorer

Jalen Coker (Panthers) +1700

Longshot (Seahawks): A.J. Barner +1100
With Arroyo done for the season, Barner has seen an uptick in usage. He ran routes on almost 93% of dropbacks last week. Barner reeled in 4 of 6 targets for 49 yards and a touchdown last week, which gives him five touchdowns on the season. CAR is allowing the 3rd highest yards per target (8.7) and the 5th highest catch rate (76.2%) to the position. This should be a spot for Barner to get a couple looks in the endzone.

Parlay #1 (Panthers) +400

Bryce Young 1+ Interception

Rico Dowdle u46.5 Rush Yards

Tetaroia McMillan u4.5 Receptions

 

Parlay #2 (Seahawks) +317
Zach Charbonnet Touchdown
AJ Barner 3+ Receptions
SEA Seahawks -6.5

QB Jacoby Brissett

Jacoby Brissett finds himself smack in the middle of the highest point total on the entire slate this Sunday when he faces the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati allows the 2nd most passing TDs of any NFL team, and with a disastrous backfield that better resemles that of Normandy, the Cardinals have nearly abandoned the run. This has led to Brissett averaging 46.3 dropbacks in 9 of his last 10 starts. Furthermore, the Bengals rank dead last in receptions (106), receiving yards (1362) and touchdowns (15) to opposing TEs in '25, and this so happens to be Brissett's favorite target, especially in the end zone. He is virtually a lock to throw at least two touchdowns in this game.

Suggested Bet:

Jacoby Brissett o1.5 Pass TDs (-123)

 

RB Michael Carter

The Arizona backfield has been blugeoned with injuries this season to the point that they are pulling people off the street to fill the position. Michael Carter is just slightly above this description, as the Cardinals running back is averaging just 3.7 YPC this season. However, last week Carter carried the ball 11 times for 65 yards vs a Falcons teams that has the league's 10th worst rush defense. In Week 17, Carter is in a nice spot to follow up on that number when he faces a Bengals defense that ranks dead last against the run. Arizona has virtually abandoned the run, but they've been fortunate to run into back-to-back weeks with advantageous spots, and I expect the Cardinals to once again take advantage in this situation.

Suggested Bet:

Michael Carter o43.5 Rush Yards (-116)

 

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is still listed as questionable with a heel injury. Considering we at the midnight hour, this is quite concerning, and the Cardinals would be crazy to put him in a position where he could face further injury in a game as meaningless as this. I would continue to monitor the situation, but with this in mind I don't have confidence  even if he is able to suit up on Sunday in Cincinnati. The Bengals have the worst rush defense in the NFL, and they are dead last in defending tight ends. Because everything funnels to these two spots, it's resulted in opposing teams not utilizing the WR position. MHJ also saw just 3 targets last week, so this is a clear pass for me.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

 

WR Michael Wilson

The Michael Wilson era was a fun ride while it lasted, but with Marvin Harrison Jr. back in the lineup, that wagon has just lost its wheels. Wilson's target share got nuked last week, going from from a massive 15 per game down to just three last Sunday, showing that he’s headed back to a secondary role rather than being the alpha of the offense. It's also important to note that this is a matchup that believe it or not, favors Arizona's running backs. There's just no sense taking a chance on Wilson here, when for 16 straight weeks teams have obliterated the Bengals at the RB and TE positions.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

 

TE Trey McBride

As we get towards the end of the 2025 season, once again, Trey McBride is one of the top tight ends in football. Also, with Sam LaPorta out for the year and Brock Bowers being shut down, you can make the argument that McBride is the best tight end remaining. Overall, despite the struggles at the quarterback position for the Arizona Cardinals this season, McBride has struck gold with Jacoby Brissett, catching 109 balls for 1,098 yards and 10 touchdowns. He had just 4 receptions for 27 yards last week, but this Sunday he faces a Cincinnati pass defense that has been absolutely terrible vs the tight end position. The Bengals rank dead last in receptions (106), receiving yards (1362) and touchdowns (15) to opposing TEs in '25. This is a great bounce back spot for McBride to go off on Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Trey McBride o76.5 Rec Yards (-112)

QB Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow completed 25 of 32 passes for 309 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Dolphins last week. He’s now averaging 238.4 passing yards per game, 6.77 YPA and a 64.2% completion rate this season (removing his week 2 game where he was injured). He’s thrown 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’ll face a Cardinals defense that ranks 7th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 11th most passing yards per game (224.1). The Cardinals have been even worse as of late with key injuries, including Garrett Williams, Walter Nolen and Josh Sweat. The Bengals have the highest implied total on the week (30.25 points). The Cardinals play the 3rd highest rate of two-high (57.8%) in the league. Burrow averages 6.71 YPA, a 68% completion rate and a 102.2 QB rating against two-high this season. I like Burrow to continue his momentum this week, especially with a healthy Chase and Higgins.

Suggested Pick:

Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-114)
300+ Passing Yards (+229)

 

RB Chase Brown

In the first 6 weeks of the season, Chase Brown averaged 33.7 rushing yards per game on 2.73 YPC. In the past 9, h’s averaging 71.6 rushing yards per game on 5.24 YPC. After having an 82%+ snap rate in 3 straight games without Perine, Brown has had a 58.8%, 66.1%, 62% and 60.7% snap rate in the past 4 weeks with him back. Despite Perine back, Brown has still had a healthy route participation rate, at 52.1%, 48.6%, 65.9% and 47.2% in the past 4 weeks. Brown will face a Cardinals defense that ranks 11th worst in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 10th most rushing yards per game (126.3). The Cardinals have been worse as of late, allowing the 4th most rushing yards per game (144.7) and the 6th most YPC (4.67) since week 11. The Bengals have the highest implied total on the week (30.25 points). From a receiving matchup perspective, the Cardinals have been middle of the pack, but allowed Bijan Robinson to catch 7 of 11 targets for 92 yards last week. I like Brown’s combo line!

Suggested Pick:

Over 80.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Ja’Marr Chase

Chase is averaging 89.7 receiving yards per game, 2.33 YPRR and has been targeted on 30% of his routes. He dominates in 1st-read rate at 40.4%. The Bengals have the highest implied total on the week (30.25 points), so expect a lot of offense here. He’ll face a Cardinals defense that ranks 7th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 11th most passing yards per game (224.1). The Cardinals have been even worse as of late with key injuries, including Garrett Williams, Walter Nolen and Josh Sweat. The Cardinals play the 3rd highest rate of two-high (57.8%) in the league. Chase averages 2.22 YPRR, 24% TPRR and a 32.7% 1st-read rate against two-high (negative splits). Despite the negative schematic splits, I expect Chase to cook against a depleted Cardinals defense that has been trending down.

Suggested Pick:

Over 90.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Tee Higgins

Higgins returned last week after missing time with a concussion and caught 3 of 3 targets for 53 yards and a TD against the Dolphins. He now has 8 touchdowns in the last 7 games. On the season, he’s averaging 55.4 receiving yards per game. 1.68 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. The Bengals have the highest implied total on the week (30.25 points), so expect a lot of offense here. He’ll face a Cardinals defense that ranks 7th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 11th most passing yards per game (224.1). The Cardinals have been even worse as of late with key injuries, including Garrett Williams, Walter Nolen and Josh Sweat. The Cardinals play the 3rd highest rate of two-high (57.8%) in the league. Higgins averages 1.36 YPRR and 16% TPRR against two-high this season (negative splits). Higgins targets have been light, but he’s been the primary target in the red zone, I like him to find the end zone again against a depleted Cardinals defense trending downward.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (+115)

 

TE Mike Gesicki

Noah Fant was forced to leave the game early against the Ravens in week 15 and did not play week 16. Gesicki has a 75% and 66.7% route participation rate in those 2 weeks respectively. He produced last week against the Dolphins, catching 3 of 4 targets for 35 yards and a touchdown. We’ll need to monitor Fant’s status. If Fant returns, I’d avoid both options as it’s a crowded TE room, but if he misses time, Gesicki should have a nice matchup against the Cardinals. The Cardinals have allowed the 6th most receiving yards, 6th most receptions and 7th most touchdowns to TEs this season. The Bengals have the highest implied total on the week (30.25 points), so expect a lot of offense here. The Cardinals defense has been worse as of late with key injuries, including Garrett Williams, Walter Nolen and Josh Sweat. Gesicki doesn’t have a high target share, but at +305 odds I like his value for scoring a touchdown.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (+305)

These are both TERRIBLE defenses and I expect offenses to really do well. 

Best Bet: Over 53.5 -120
Longshots: Cardinals +7.5 -115

Anytime TD Picks

Tee Higgins (Bengals) +110

Trey McBride (Cardinals) +115

 

First TD Scorer:

Tee Higgins (Bengals) +750

Michael Carter (Cardinals) +950

Parlay #1 (Bengals) +603

Joe Burrow 300+ Passing Yards
Ja’Marr Chase 90+ Receiving Yards
Chase Brown 80+ Rush + Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Cardinals) +450

Jacoby Brissett 2+ Pass TDs
Michael Carter 40+ Rush Yards
Trey McBride 70+ Rec Yards

Trey McBride Anytime TD

QB Jaxson Dart

Dart is coming off one of the worst performances of his short NFL career, completing just 7-of-13 passes for 33 yards against Minnesota in a game where New York posted a league-low pass rate over expectation (-24.1%). That game plan reflected a complete lack of trust after Dart returned from a concussion, and it showed in how conservative and condensed the offense became. That said, this matchup sets up more favorably. Las Vegas runs Cover 3 at the highest rate in the league (46.1%), and Dart has actually been far more comfortable against that shell, averaging 8.41 YPA on 108 dropbacks. The Raiders have been solid at limiting raw passing volume (219.4 passing YPG allowed), but they haven’t been particularly effective at creating pressure or forcing negative plays early in games. With the Giants unlikely to completely abandon the pass again, Dart should see more early scripted throws, play-action, and designed movement to settle him in.

Suggested Play: 

'O' 185.5 Pass Yards (-120)

 

RB Tyrone Tracy Jr

Tyrone Tracy continues to function as the clear lead back, even when game scripts turn negative. He logged 16 carries for 71 yards last week and has now reached 14+ carries and 70+ rushing yards in five of his last six games. His snap share (65%) and carry share (53%) remain stable, and he’s consistently been the first option on early downs. This is a difficult efficiency matchup on paper. Las Vegas allows the second-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.59), which limits explosive runs. However, they’ve still given up nearly 100 rushing yards per game, largely because teams stay committed and grind out volume. Tracy doesn’t need efficiency to get home — his role and workload give him one of the clearest scoring paths on the roster, especially if New York reaches the red zone.

Suggested Play: 

Anytime TD (+145)

 

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

WanDale Robinson remains the safest and most stable piece of the Giants’ passing game. Even in Dart’s disastrous outing last week, Robinson still commanded 39% of the team’s targets and ran routes on 95% of dropbacks. Since Malik Nabers exited the lineup, Robinson has reached 5+ receptions in 8 of 11 games, largely due to his short-area role and manufactured touches. The Raiders’ heavy Cover 3 usage funnels targets inside, which plays directly into Robinson’s skill set. While Las Vegas is relatively strong against slot receivers on a per-game basis, they’ve still allowed steady underneath volume and struggle to close drives without giving up first downs. Robinson may not rack up chunk plays, but his usage near the goal line has quietly increased on quick hitters and rub concepts.

Suggested Play: 

First TD (+1025)

 

WR Darius Slayton

Slayton has been frustratingly volatile, coming off a one-catch, eight-yard performance against Minnesota, and he’s now failed to reach double-digit output in three of his last four games. That said, his underlying matchup metrics are quietly encouraging. Against Cover 3, Slayton averages 2.74 YPRR and a .21 TPRR, both strong indicators of downfield efficiency when the coverage dictates vertical routes. Las Vegas has been far more vulnerable to perimeter receivers, allowing the eighth-most receiving yards per game (116.1) and the fifth-most YPRR (2.16) to wideouts aligned outside. Slayton remains the Giants’ primary vertical threat, and if New York connects on even one early shot play, he immediately becomes the most likely candidate to score on a long touchdown.

Suggested Play

'O' 19.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

QB Geno Smith

Smith returned from injury in Week 16 and delivered one of his more efficient outings of the season, completing 16-of-23 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns despite facing consistent pressure. While the box score looks encouraging, it’s important to note that Geno has thrown one or fewer passing TDs in eight of 14 games, and his production has been highly sensitive to coverage type. This matchup leans toward volatility. The Giants deploy man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league (37.8%), and Smith has struggled against those looks, averaging just 7.08 YPA with a -5.2% CPOE. New York has quietly limited QB efficiency while allowing moderate volume, forcing quarterbacks to string together long drives rather than giving up explosives. Geno’s mobility has helped mitigate some pressure, but his passing ceiling remains capped unless the Raiders lean heavily into play-action and early-down passing.

Suggested Play:
'U' 200.5 Pass Yards (-120)

 

RB Ashton Jeanty

Week 16 saw Jeanty erupt in what was the definition of a spike game: 24 carries, 128 rushing yards, and a 60-yard receiving touchdown on a massive 93% snap share. While the performance was eye-catching, it also masks a longer trend of inefficiency. Jeanty has failed to top 50 rushing yards in seven of his last nine games, and he ranks near the bottom of the league in stuff rate, explosive run rate, and yards before contact. That said, this is arguably the best matchup he’s seen all season. The Giants allow the most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.88) and the second-most rushing yards per game (121.9), consistently losing at the point of attack. Even inefficient runners have been able to generate volume-based success against New York, and Jeanty’s workload gives him multiple paths to production early in the game.

Suggested Play:
First TD (+365)

 

WR Tre Tucker

Tucker remains the Raiders’ primary vertical threat and one of their most coverage-sensitive weapons. Against man coverage, he’s logged 137 routes with 151 yards and continues to be used on deep crossers and post routes designed to punish single-high looks. While his target share isn’t elite, his role is clearly defined, and the Giants’ heavy man tendencies set up opportunities for chunk gains if Geno has time to throw. New York has struggled to limit perimeter receivers when forced into press-man, and Tucker’s speed is a mismatch against their corner depth. Even in games where his volume dips, Tucker often sees high-leverage targets that can flip field position or produce quick scores.

Suggested Play:
'O' 20.5 Longest Reception (-120)

 

TE Michael Mayer

With Brock Bowers officially out for the year, Michael Mayer steps back into a full-time role and immediately becomes one of Geno Smith’s most logical safety valves, especially against a Giants defense that leans heavily on man coverage (37.8%, 3rd-highest). Mayer profiles well against man looks due to his size, route discipline, and ability to shield defenders on in-breaking routes, seams, and goal-line concepts. New York has struggled to consistently contain tight ends in coverage, particularly when forced into single-high looks or when linebackers are isolated without safety help. The Raiders are likely to emphasize ball control and high-percentage throws in this matchup, which funnels usage toward the tight end position. With Tre Tucker stretching the field and Ashton Jeanty commanding attention in the run game, Mayer should see clean looks underneath and be a primary option in the red zone, where his physicality becomes a major advantage. If Las Vegas moves the ball early, Mayer is one of the most likely pass-catchers to be featured near the goal line, especially off play action.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+275)

Best Bet: Giants -2.5
Lean 'U' 41.5 
Score Prediction: Giants 24 Raiders 16

 

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Giants) Tyrone Tracy Jr +145

Tyrone Tracy continues to function as the clear lead back, even when game scripts turn negative. He logged 16 carries for 71 yards last week and has now reached 14+ carries and 70+ rushing yards in five of his last six games. His snap share (65%) and carry share (53%) remain stable, and he’s consistently been the first option on early downs. This is a difficult efficiency matchup on paper. Las Vegas allows the second-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.59), which limits explosive runs. However, they’ve still given up nearly 100 rushing yards per game, largely because teams stay committed and grind out volume. Tracy doesn’t need efficiency to get home — his role and workload give him one of the clearest scoring paths on the roster, especially if New York reaches the red zone.

 

Longshot (Raiders) Michael Mayer Anytime TD +275

With Brock Bowers officially out for the year, Michael Mayer steps back into a full-time role and immediately becomes one of Geno Smith’s most logical safety valves, especially against a Giants defense that leans heavily on man coverage (37.8%, 3rd-highest). Mayer profiles well against man looks due to his size, route discipline, and ability to shield defenders on in-breaking routes, seams, and goal-line concepts. New York has struggled to consistently contain tight ends in coverage, particularly when forced into single-high looks or when linebackers are isolated without safety help. The Raiders are likely to emphasize ball control and high-percentage throws in this matchup, which funnels usage toward the tight end position. With Tre Tucker stretching the field and Ashton Jeanty commanding attention in the run game, Mayer should see clean looks underneath and be a primary option in the red zone, where his physicality becomes a major advantage. If Las Vegas moves the ball early, Mayer is one of the most likely pass-catchers to be featured near the goal line, especially off play action.

 

1st Touchdown: 

Best Bet (Giants): WanDale Robinson First TD +1025

WanDale Robinson remains the safest and most stable piece of the Giants’ passing game. Even in Dart’s disastrous outing last week, Robinson still commanded 39% of the team’s targets and ran routes on 95% of dropbacks. Since Malik Nabers exited the lineup, Robinson has reached 5+ receptions in 8 of 11 games, largely due to his short-area role and manufactured touches. The Raiders’ heavy Cover 3 usage funnels targets inside, which plays directly into Robinson’s skill set. While Las Vegas is relatively strong against slot receivers on a per-game basis, they’ve still allowed steady underneath volume and struggle to close drives without giving up first downs. Robinson may not rack up chunk plays, but his usage near the goal line has quietly increased on quick hitters and rub concepts.

Longshot (Raiders) Ashton Jeanty First TD +365

Week 16 saw Jeanty erupt in what was the definition of a spike game: 24 carries, 128 rushing yards, and a 60-yard receiving touchdown on a massive 93% snap share. While the performance was eye-catching, it also masks a longer trend of inefficiency. Jeanty has failed to top 50 rushing yards in seven of his last nine games, and he ranks near the bottom of the league in stuff rate, explosive run rate, and yards before contact. That said, this is arguably the best matchup he’s seen all season. The Giants allow the most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.88) and the second-most rushing yards per game (121.9), consistently losing at the point of attack. Even inefficient runners have been able to generate volume-based success against New York, and Jeanty’s workload gives him multiple paths to production early in the game.

Parlay #1 (Giants): +515

Tyrone Tracy ATD

Jaxson Dart 'O' 185.5 Pass Yards

WanDale Robinson 'O' 58.5 Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Raiders): +360

Ashton Jeanty ATD

Jaxson Dart 'O' 185.5 Pass Yards

Tre Tucker 'O' 20.5 Yard Longest Reception

QB Jalen Hurts

Buffalo presents one of the league’s most restrictive passing environments, partially due to their poor run defence. The Bills allow the fewest completions (16.9), the 3rd fewest pass attempts (27.5), the fewest passing yards (181.6), and the 7th fewest passing touchdowns (1.1) per game, while giving up the 3rd most quarterback rushing yards (23.7). The Bills run about league average of zone and man coverage, but lean into Cover 2 at the 9th-highest rate (16.6%). Against Cover 2, Hurts ranks 8th in completion percentage (59.7%), 12th in yards per attempt (7.76), and 6th in QBR (106.4). It will be a tough matchup for Hurts through the air, but he should have plenty of opportunity to tush push his way into the end zone against this bad Bills rush defence.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts TD (+135)

 

RB Saquon Barkley

This is week should be the Saquon Barkley week. He's finally turning it around, and now gets a bad Bills run defence, who allow the 14th most rush attempts per game (21.7) but surrenders the 4th most rushing yards per game (112.9). In contrast, they limit running back involvement in the passing game, allowing the 16th fewest receptions (4.3) and the 9th fewest receiving yards (27.8) per game. Buffalo leans more toward zone concepts (46.1%) than man/gap (36.2%), and both structures have been exploitable, allowing 5.24 yards per carry against zone and 5.32 against man/gap. That split matters for Barkley, who has struggled against zone looks this season with just 3.87 yards per carry, but has been far more effective against man/gap concepts at 4.50 yards per carry. It should be all Barkley in this one.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley o84.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR AJ Brown

This matchup for Brown sets up as a restrictive efficiency environment against a Buffalo defence that consistently limits wide receiver production. The Bills allow the 6th fewest receptions (9.8) and the 6th fewest receiving yards (120.9) per game, forcing offences to earn yardage without volume. Against Cover 2 specifically, Brown has eight receptions on 12 targets for 79 yards with a 16.4% target share. He aligns almost exclusively outside (89% of snaps), yet Buffalo has minimized perimeter damage by suppressing opportunities, reflected in a target rate that ranks second-lowest league-wide. That is reflected in their catch rate (63.4%) and yards per reception (12.89) to the alignment. We've seen the Eagles rely on the run and abandon the pass earlier this season, and this matchup should be similar.

Suggested pick:

Pass

 

WR Devonta Smith

Same goes for Smith. Against that Cover 2, Smith has been a focal point of the Eagles’ passing game, producing 18 receptions on 21 targets for 259 receiving yards while commanding a team-leading target share (27.6%). Smith lines up in the slot on 59.9% of his routes. To that alignment, the Bills are targeted at a middle-of-the-pack target rate, allow a lower-end catch rate (65%), and yards per reception (11.2). But somebody has to make some catches in this matchup, and with Smith's alignment, we anticipate him to be the beneficiary.

Suggested pick:

DeVonta Smith o48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Dallas Goedert

Buffalo presents one of the league’s toughest tight end matchups, allowing the fewest receptions per game (2.8) and the second fewest receiving yards (30.7). That said, Cover 2 has been a workable avenue, where Goedert has turned 11 receptions on 13 targets into 135 receiving yards while holding a 17.8% target share. With 48.2% of his snaps coming from the slot, his production is closely tied to Smith's, and considering we like Smith to be utilized, that would come at the cost of Goedert.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert u3.5 Receptions (-115)

QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen averages 227.1 passing yards per game, 8.01 YPA and a 69.6% completion rate. He’s thrown 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has not been as consistent as of late, throwing for under 200 yards in 3 of his last 4 games. He’ll face an Eagles defense that ranks 2nd best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th fewest passing yards per game (192.3). The Bills are 1.5-point home favorites with a 44-point implied total. Jalen Carter has been practicing this week, so the Eagles are expected to get back their most dominant player. However, they are expected to be without Nakobe Dean. The Eagles blitz at the 2nd lowest rate in the NFL (19.4%), yet have the 5th highest pressure rate (42.2%). Josh averages 7.82 YPA, a 71.4% completion rate and a 105.1 QB rating when not blitzed. When pressured, he averages 7.03 YPA, a 50.4% completion rate and a 69.1 QB rating. He’s also scrambled 43 times for 400 yards when pressured.  Philadelphia allows the 7th most rushing yards per game to QB. The Eagles top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (29%), Cover 1 (21.7%) and Cover 6 (21.4%). Against these 3 coverages, Josh averages 8.19 YPA, a 68.4% completion rate and a 99.2 QB rating. In games the Bills are favored by less than a touchdown, Josh is averaging 41.6 rushing yards per game, compared to 36.8 overall. I like Josh’s rushing upside in what should be a competitive game. 

Suggested Pick:

Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
40+ Rushing Yards (+182)
Anytime Touchdown (+141)

 

RB James Cook

James Cook leads the league in rushing yards and averages 102.1 rushing yards per game on 5.34 YPC. He has 12 rushing touchdowns. He’ll face an Eagles defense that ranks 15th in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 12th most rushing yards per game (123.5). The Eagles allow the 8th most YPC (4.47) but the 13th lowest success rate (47.3%) against zone concept runs. That compares to the 13th fewest YPC (4.11) but the 4th highest success rate allowed (56.4%) against man/gap. Cook has a 50-50 split between the 2 run concepts. He averages 5.56 YPC and a 60.7% success rate in zone concept. That compares to 5.12 YPC and a 53.8% success rate in man/gap. The Eagles have been inconsistent against the run and with this likely to be a competitive game and against a tough Eagles pass defense, I think the Bills try to control this game by establishing the run with Cook.

Suggested Pick:

Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Anytime Touchdown (+100)

 

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir is averaging 45.6 receiving yards per game, 1.92 YPRR, has been targeted on 24% of his routes and leads the team in 1st-read rate at 23.4%. He’ll face an Eagles defense that ranks 2nd best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th fewest receiving yards per game (192.3). The Bills are 1.5-point home favorites with a 44-point implied total. Jalen Carter has been practicing this week, so the Eagles are expected to get back their most dominant player. However, they are expected to be without Nakobe Dean. Shakir has lined up out of the slot on 70% of his routes. The Eagles allow the fewest YPRR to the slot (1.26). The Eagles blitz at the 2nd lowest rate in the NFL (19.4%), yet have the 5th highest pressure rate (42.2%). The Eagles top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (29%), Cover 1 (21.7%) and Cover 6 (21.4%). When Allen is pressured, Shakir averages 1.14 YPRR and has a 13% TPRR. Against the Eagles top 3 coverages, Shakir averages 2.00 YPRR and 24% TPRR. I’m fading Shakir.

Suggested Pick:

Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-117)

 

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid is averaging 47.5 receiving yards per game, 3.02 YPRR, has been targeted on 27% of his routes and has a 1st-read rate of 17.5%. The only knock on Kincaid has been that he’s only run a route on 46.1% of dropbacks. He’ll face an Eagles defense that ranks 2nd best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th fewest receiving yards per game (192.3). The Bills are 1.5-point home favorites with a 44-point implied total. Jalen Carter has been practicing this week, so the Eagles are expected to get back their most dominant player. However, they are expected to be without Nakobe Dean. The Eagles specifically allow the fewest receiving yards and 2nd fewest receptions to TE. The Eagles blitz at the 2nd lowest rate in the NFL (19.4%), yet have the 5th highest pressure rate (42.2%). The Eagles top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (29%), Cover 1 (21.7%) and Cover 6 (21.4%). When Allen is pressured, Kincaid averages 1.27 YPRR and 14% TPRR. Against the Eagles top 3 coverages, Kincaid averages 2.70 YPRR and 25% TPRR. Kincaid’s line is low due to the difficult matchup, I think it’s correctly priced, I’ll pass.

Suggested Pick

Pass

I expect this to go UNDER! 

Best Bet: Under 44.5 -130
Lean: Bills ML -120
Game Prediction Eagles 17 Bills 27

Anytime TD Picks

Josh Allen (Bills) +120

 

Best Pick: (Eagles): Saquon Barkley TD (+105)

We've spoken about how this should be a Barkley week, and that will be reflected in our TD bet. While having to worry about Hurts vultering a TD from the one-yard line, Barkley has still managed to score in three consecutive games. The Bills allow by far the most rushing TDs (1.2) per game to the RB position this season.

 

1st Touchdown: 

Josh Allen (Bills) +700

Parlay #1 (Bills) +649

Josh Allen 40+ Rushing Yards
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown
Khalil Shakir Under 42.5 Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 2: (Eagles) +320 odds on bet365

Saquon Barkley TD

Saquon Barkley 100+ Rushing Yards

QB Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams draws a volume-friendly matchup against San Francisco, who allows the 4th most completions (23.5) and 7th most pass attempts (34.4) per game, translating into the 11th most passing yards (238.8) and the 5th most passing touchdowns (1.8) allowed. Coverage-wise, San Francisco is heavily zone-based, running zone coverage on (77.2%) of snaps and the 4th most Cover 4 in the league (22%). This isn't great news for Williams, who has the lowest completion percentage in the NFL against zone (59.4%) paired with middle-of-the-pack yards per attempt (7.15) and QBR (85.7). Against Cover 4 specifically, he remains inefficient on a per-throw basis with the 5th lowest completion rate (60%), but sees an improvement efficiency-wise, with the 11th highest yards per attempt (7.62) and a solid 14th-ranked QBR (94.1). It should be a heavy-volume night considering his low completion percentage and the 49ers defence. Williams has logged 33+ pass attempts in four of his last five games.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams o32.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

 

RB D'Andre Swift

D’Andre Swift heads into this matchup against San Francisco facing a defence that limits backs on the ground but can be beaten through the air. The 49ers allow the 8th fewest rush attempts (20.1) and the 12th fewest rushing yards (87.9) per game, but they are far more generous to running backs as receivers, giving up the 2nd most receptions (5.5) and the 12th most receiving yards (34.3) per game. Structurally, San Francisco leans heavily toward man/gap concepts (49.9%) and allows just 4.0 yards per carry against the coverage. Swift performs much better against zone concept (5.17), but his 4.34 yards per carry against man/gap is still decent. But we anticipate Swift's involvement will shine brighter in the passing game, given the defensive matchup.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift 3+ Receptions (+140)

 

WR DJ Moore

DJ Moore is carrying an injured designation as he deals with an illness. His availability has not been confirmed, but monitor his status and involvement before placing any bets on him. The 49ers allow the 7th most receptions per game (12.3) and the 11th most receiving yards (149.6). Moore has been productive against zone coverage, catching 38 passes on 58 targets for 556 yards with a (15.6%) target share, where his catch rate (65.9%) and yards per route run (1.25) are higher, though his yards per reception dip to 12.9 compared to man splits. Against Cover 4, which San Francisco runs at one of the highest rates, Moore has been more explosive but less consistent, producing six receptions on 11 targets for 115 yards with a slightly higher (16.9%) target share. With 67.6% of his snaps coming out wide, the 49ers defence allows the 3rd yards per reception (11.6), but ranks middle-of-the-pack in target rate, and the 7th highest catch rate (65.7%). Moore went off last week, but with his illness and Luther Burden returning this week, we'll probably remain cautious and stay off Moore this week.

Suggested pick:

Pass

 

WR Luther Burden

Burden makes his return after missing last week with an injury, and he should walk into a massive role with no Rome Odunze and DJ Moore dealing with an illness. Against zone coverage, Burden has secured 30 receptions on 38 targets for 406 receiving yards, accounting for only a 12.1% target share despite the efficient numbers. His catch rate (80.6%), yards per reception (14.6), and an elite 3.04 yards per route run, are all massive increases in zone compared to man coverage. His usage against Cover 4 has been more limited but still productive on a per-target basis, with five receptions on six targets for 78 yards and a (10.3%) target share. Alignment-wise, he has lined up out wide on (53.9%) of his snaps, giving him a similar matchup to Moore. Burden has surpassed 50+ receiving yards in two straight matchups and will likely get his best opportunity to succeed with all of the other injuries and illnesses.

Suggested pick:

Luther Burden 50+ Receptions (-135)

 

TE Colston Loveland

The 49ers are a decently favourable matchup for Loveland this week, as they allow the 11th most receptions per game (5.7) and the 13th most receiving yards (54.9). Loveland has been most productive against zone coverage, where he has caught 30 passes on 42 targets for 413 yards while commanding a 12.5% target share. His zone splits all increase in zone coverage compared to man: a higher catch rate (69.4%), stronger yards per reception (12.0), and improved yards per route run (1.55). Against Cover 4, Loveland hasn't been as effective, with just four receptions on five targets for 32 yards and a reduced (8.5%) target share. Loveland runs (43.2%) of his routes inline. San Francisco is targeted at inline alignment at the second-highest rate in the league, but only allow the third-lowest catch rate (69.9%) with middle-of-the-pack yards per reception (9.92). Loveland has logged 4+ receptions in three of his last five games.

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland o3.5 Receptions (-135)

QB Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy has reached another gear since the bye, delivering back-to-back dominant performances and showing full command of Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Over his last two games, Purdy has thrown for 590 yards and 8 passing TDs, while accounting for 10 total TDs when including his rushing contribution. His 9.1 YPA in that span reflects both downfield aggression and efficiency, and he’s now accounted for multiple TDs in six of his last seven games. Chicago’s coverage profile aligns well with Purdy’s strengths. Against Cover 3 and Cover 2 — which the Bears deploy on 51.4% of snaps — Purdy averages 9.53 YPA, a +9.2% CPOE, and adds rushing value on scrambles. Chicago has allowed the third-most passing TDs per game (1.9), and opposing QBs have consistently produced via play-action and intermediate throws. Purdy shredded this defense last season (325 yards), and the current version of San Francisco’s offense is operating at a higher level.

Suggested Play:

'O' 2.5 Pass TDs (+155)

 

RB Christian McCaffery

Christian McCaffrey remains the engine of the league’s most versatile offense. He’s now handled 372 total touches, leads the NFL in usage, and has scored in five consecutive games. His Week 16 performance highlighted his complete role: 21 carries, 6 targets, and 3 total TDs. He’s reached 22.7+ points in 11 of 15 games, driven by elite red-zone involvement and receiving usage. Chicago presents a favorable rushing environment. The Bears allow the second-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.61), indicating consistent push at the line of scrimmage, and they’ve struggled to limit explosive RB runs. While they limit RB receiving volume, McCaffrey’s role near the goal line and in short-yardage keeps him insulated. With San Francisco favored to control the game script, McCaffrey is positioned to dominate early touches.

Suggested Play:
'O' 17.5 Rush Attempts (-135)

 

WR Jauan Jennings

With Ricky Pearsall sidelined, Jauan Jennings has firmly stepped into a featured role. He’s now scored six times in his last seven games, and his usage spikes in high-leverage situations — especially in the red zone and on third downs. Jennings posted 5/71/1 in Week 16 after a quiet first half, continuing his trend of late-game production. Against Cover 3 and Cover 2, Jennings averages 1.74 YPRR with steady target involvement, and Chicago has quietly been vulnerable to physical boundary receivers. While the Bears limit overall WR volume, they’ve still surrendered splash plays to wideouts capable of winning contested catches. Jennings burned this defense last season for 7/90/2, and his chemistry with Purdy continues to grow.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD  (+110)

 

TE George Kittle

George Kittle’s availability is the key variable entering this matchup, but when on the field, the ceiling is massive. He’s recorded 7 TDs in 10 games, with 67+ receiving yards in six straight, and just posted 7/115/1 before exiting early due to an ankle issue. Against Cover 3 and Cover 2, Kittle is borderline unstoppable, averaging an elite 3.17 YPRR with a 30% TPRR. Chicago allows the 14th-most receiving YPG to TEs and struggles to match tight ends vertically. Even if limited, Kittle’s red-zone role remains intact. If he were to miss, Jake Tonges would inherit meaningful volume, but assuming Kittle plays, San Francisco is unlikely to shy away from targeting him in scoring areas.

Suggested Play:

Pass due to injury

49ers are clicking right now and I feel like the Bears take a road loss before the Playoffs. Give me the 49ers ML

Best Bet: 49ers ML -180
Lean: Under 52.5 
Score Prediction Bears 23 49ers 30

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (49ers) Jauan Jennings Anytime TD +110

With Ricky Pearsall sidelined, Jauan Jennings has firmly stepped into a featured role. He’s now scored six times in his last seven games, and his usage spikes in high-leverage situations — especially in the red zone and on third downs. Jennings posted 5/71/1 in Week 16 after a quiet first half, continuing his trend of late-game production. Against Cover 3 and Cover 2, Jennings averages 1.74 YPRR with steady target involvement, and Chicago has quietly been vulnerable to physical boundary receivers. While the Bears limit overall WR volume, they’ve still surrendered splash plays to wideouts capable of winning contested catches. Jennings burned this defense last season for 7/90/2, and his chemistry with Purdy continues to grow.

 

Best Pick: (Bears): Colston Loveland TD (+220)

Rolling Loveland back this week. He's now gone two straight games without finding the end zone, and hasn't gone three straight since he scored his first TD in Week 9. The 49ers allow the 5th most passing TDs (1.8) per game to opposing QBs, and surprisingly, the 5th most receiving TDs (0.6) per game to opposing TEs. Seems like a match made in heaven, especially if Moore is out and his involvement in the passing game grows.

 

Longshot

1st Touchdown: 

Best Bet (49ers) Christian McCaffery First TD +365

Chicago’s run defense invites early pressure. The Bears allow the second-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.61), which consistently puts backs into favorable second-level situations. They’ve also struggled with gap discipline on scripted drives, especially against motion-heavy offenses like San Francisco’s. With Brock Purdy operating efficiently and the 49ers likely to control tempo from the opening kickoff, McCaffrey is positioned to handle the first high-leverage touch of the game. If San Francisco scores first, McCaffrey is the most likely player to finish the drive.

Longshot

Parlay #1 (49ers) +370

Jauan Jennings ATD
CMC ATD

Brock Purdy 'O' 254.5 Pass Yards

 

Parlay 1: (Bears) +210 odds on bet365

Caleb Williams 30+ Pass Attempts

Luther Burden 40+ Receiving Yards

Colston Loveland 4+ Receptions