Commanders Team Overview

QB Marcus Mariota

Jayden Daniels is out for this week, which means another start for Marcus Mariota. However, he gets a tough Chiefs defence, who allow the 9th fewest completions (19.1) and the 4th fewest pass attempts (27.6) per game, holding opponents to just 182.4 passing yards per game — the 3rd lowest mark in the league. They’ve also given up only one passing touchdown per game, tied for 2nd fewest. Mariota’s passing volume has been limited in his two starts, and this matchup isn’t likely to change that. The Chiefs run the 13th most man coverage (26.2%), more specifically, the most Cover 0 (8.7%), and the sixth most Cover 2 (21.8%). Against man coverage, he’s completed just five of 12 pass attempts for 47 yards in his three games. Against the two coverages the Chiefs run the most, Mariota is 0/1 against Cover 0 and 5/6 for 46 yards against Cover 2. However, while the Chiefs’ secondary has been airtight, they are vulnerable against mobile QBs. Kansas City allows the 6th most rushing yards (26.7) per game to opposing QBs. In his three games, Mariota has rushed for 94 yards on only 10 attempts. Even with McLaurin and Deebo returning for this match, it's going to be a struggle for Mariota to get much through the air. However, when he realizes nothing is there through the air, he'll likely rely on his legs to get the offence moving.

Suggested pick:

Marcus Mariota u197.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Marcus Mariota o29.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt

After exploding for over 100 rushing yards against the Chargers, Croskey-Merritt has struggled to continue that impressive output. This week won't be much easier, against a Chiefs defence who allow the 2nd fewest rush attempts per game (16.9) and 9th fewest rushing yards allowed (78.0). Kansas City has been slightly more vulnerable in the receiving game to RBs, allowing the 10th fewest receptions (4.3) to running backs per contest, but the 13th most receiving yards (30.9). However, that has yet to be a part of Croskey-Merritt's game the Commanders has utilized, as he has not seen more than two targets in any game this season. Scheme-wise, Kansas City runs the most zone concept run defence in the league (57.7%) and the least man/gap (18.4%). However, whichever run defence they throw out there, they allow around the same yards per carry – 4.45 in zone concept (6th highest) and 4.37 against man/gap. It's a shame that Croskey-Merritt hasn't translated his success into a strong game, as he averages 5.13 yards per carry against zone concepts and 5.18 against man/gap. The way we see it, there won't be much rushing work for the Commanders.

Suggested Pick:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt u12.5 Rush Attempts (-125)

WR Deebo Samuel

After missing last week, Deebo returns for this matchup against the Chiefs. However, he'll now be fighting for targets with Terry McLaurin, who also returns, and having to do so without his star QB, Jayden Daniels. In Weeks 3 and 4, with Mariota under centre, Deebo caught eight of his nine targets for 83 receiving yards and a TD. This week might be more challenging for him against a Chiefs defence that allows the 11th fewest receptions per game (10.9) and the fewest receiving yards overall (109.3). Against man, he’s caught 9 of 13 targets for 82 yards on 48 routes, while commanding the highest target share (28.3%) among Washington pass-catchers. He’s more productive downfield in these matchups, boasting a 10.6 yards per reception average, 2.12 yards per route run, and an 11.3 — all higher than his zone metrics. The downside is a slightly lower catch rate (71.4%) and fewer yards after catch per reception (1.5) against man, which are probably the two most important metrics for a receiver like Deebo. The Chiefs run the most Cover 0 in the league (8.7%) and rank sixth in Cover 2 usage (21.8%). Deebo has been perfect against Cover 0 — 4 receptions on 4 targets for 27 yards — despite the low volume. The same can be said against Cover 2, where he's caught 5 of 6 targets for 43 yards on just 23 routes. Samuel has lined up in the slot on 65% of his snaps this season. Kansas City’s defence has allowed the 6th highest catch rate (75%) to slot receivers but limits big plays, ranking 5th in fewest yards per reception (8.3) despite being targeted at the 11th lowest rate in the NFL (56). That suggests Deebo could see a steady dose of short-area targets, where he does his best work. It should be a difficult night for the entire Commanders pass offence, but Deebo should still see heavy volume, even with McLaurin returning.

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel o4.5 Receptions (+100)

WR Terry McLaurin

Terry McLaurin makes his return after a four-week absence. In Week 3 with Mariota, McLaurin caught three of his four targets for 74 receiving yards. With the Chiefs running majority man coverage, this should be a bit of a struggle for McLaurin, who has caught just 1 of his 6 targets for 7 yards on 27 routes against the coverage, producing a 16.7% catch rate and a 0.27 yards per route run. Against Cover 0, he hasn’t drawn a target on two routes, while his lone catch against Cover 2 went for just 11 yards. McLaurin lines up out wide on 88.3% of his snaps. Against outside WRs, the Chiefs allow the 10th lowest target rate (76), giving up the third fewest receiving yards per game (82.3), and hold opponents to the second lowest yards per reception (11.3). While they’re allowing a relatively high catch rate (67.1%) on the boundary, the structure of their defence has limited explosive plays. It's always tricky to project how players perform the week after returning from injury, and with a tough matchup for McLaurin – against a man-heavy team that limits outwide WRs and a backup QB – it's best to give him the wait-and-see approach before we suggest anything for the returning WR.

Suggested pick:

Pass

TE Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz draws one of the toughest assignments for a TE in Week 7, and he'll have to do it without Jayden Daniels. The Chiefs allow the third fewest receptions per game (3.6) and the fourth fewest receiving yards (33.1) to the position. Ertz’s production against man coverage hasn't been outstanding this year. Across 57 routes, he’s caught just 2 of 9 targets for 20 yards for just a 22.2% catch rate. His efficiency metrics reflect that struggle, posting just 0.43 yards per route run and 7.0 yards per reception in man situations, both well below his numbers against zone. Against Cover 0, he’s yet to draw a target on three routes, but he’s found some rhythm against Cover 2, where he’s caught 5 of 6 targets for 56 yards on 27 routes. Ertz has aligned in the slot on 60.7% of his snaps this season. However, the Chiefs’ slot defence has been among the most efficient in football, as we covered in the Deebo section. For Ertz, success will likely depend on his chemistry with Mariota. In the two games with Mariota as the starter, Ertz caught five of his seven targets for 59 receiving yards. And now, with him having to compete with McLaurin, that could limit even more of his usage.

Suggested pick:

Zach Ertz u3.5 Receptions (-125)

Chiefs Team Overview

QB Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes continues to operate with ruthless efficiency, now accounting for multiple touchdowns in six of seven starts and ranking top five league-wide in YPA (8.2) and completion rate versus pressure. Against the Raiders, he completed 26-of-35 for 286 yards (8.2 YPA) and 3 touchdowns — another game emphasizing his precision against both zone rotation and man pressure looks. His mobility has quietly reemerged as a weapon, as he’s averaging 35.7 rushing yards per game, beating his career best by over 11 yards per contest. Washington presents a familiar schematic challenge. Defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. calls man coverage on 29.2% of snaps (10th) and zone on 62.6% (26th) — but it’s the lack of disguise that leaves them vulnerable. The Commanders rank bottom-10 in pressure rate (32.1%) since trading away Chase Young and Montez Sweat, forcing their secondary to hold coverage longer than intended. Mahomes against man coverage this season: 9.7 YPA, 72% completion rate, and a 126.3 passer rating, with a top-five EPA/play against Cover 1. Kansas City’s scripted drives remain among the most effective in football, scoring on 58% of opening possessions. Expect Andy Reid to start fast again, leveraging motion and quick-game throws to Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce before stretching the field with Xavier Worthy’s vertical speed. Washington has allowed three or more passing scores in four of seven games, and Mahomes has eclipsed this mark in three straight. Against a secondary that has given up 7.9 yards per attempt and 12 plays of 20+ yards in its last three outings, Mahomes is poised for another multi-touchdown day.

Suggested Play:

'O' 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110)

RB Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco continues to anchor Kansas City’s rushing rhythm, recording 15 carries for 57 yards and a touchdown in Week 7 while playing 56% of offensive snaps. His physical downhill style has made him indispensable in Reid’s balance-driven offense. Among qualified running backs, Pacheco ranks 8th in missed tackles forced per carry (0.26) and 5th in yards after contact per rush (3.18). Washington’s run defense has been structurally sound but statistically overstressed by explosive plays on the perimeter. They allow the 12th-most rushing yards per game (96.7) and the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs (41.6). While they’ve limited yards before contact (1.71 YBC/ATT, 10th fewest), their linebackers have been late to fill on zone runs, leading to vulnerability on stretch and cutback concepts — exactly the types Pacheco thrives on. Expect Kansas City to establish him early to manipulate Washington’s safeties out of two-high shells, then return to him in the fourth quarter to close drives once the game script tilts in their favor. Pacheco has scored in four of his last six games, and with the Commanders’ defense conceding five rushing touchdowns in its last three, his early-down workload and goal-line volume make him the clear favorite to find the end zone again.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+137)

WR Rashee Rice

Rashee Rice is rapidly cementing himself as Mahomes’ go-to receiver inside the numbers. In his return from injury, he caught 7-of-9 targets for 42 yards and two touchdowns on a limited 43% route share, posting a remarkable .53 targets per route run (TPRR) and 2.47 yards per route run (YPRR) — elite short-area efficiency. His average depth of target (aDOT) sat at just 1.7 yards, reflecting Kansas City’s modernized RPO-heavy passing structure. Washington’s coverage profile amplifies Rice’s strengths. The Commanders deploy man coverage on 29.2% of snaps, and against man, Rice owns a 25% target rate and 1.83 fantasy points per route (top three among KC receivers). The Commanders have struggled to tackle after the catch, allowing 6.4 yards after contact per reception to slot targets, third-worst in the NFL. Expect Mahomes to use Rice as a motion decoy on early downs and a primary YAC weapon.

Suggested Play:

'O' 6.5 Receptions (+105)

WR Xavier Worthy

Wideout Xavier Worthy remains the Chiefs’ most dynamic vertical threat, even as his production has dipped since Rice’s return. He managed just 3 receptions for 35 yards on 4 targets (11%) last week but added a 13-yard end-around, showing Kansas City’s continued effort to manufacture touches for him. Worthy’s speed demands defensive spacing, which is crucial against a Washington secondary that has been exposed deep. The Commanders have allowed nine completions of 30+ yards this season (fourth-most), struggling particularly in Cover 3 transitions. Worthy averages 2.49 YPRR and .29 TPRR on 35 routes against man coverage, and Mahomes has a 142.6 passer rating when targeting him on deep posts. With Washington’s safeties rotating late, Worthy’s explosive potential aligns perfectly with the defense’s weak points. Worthy’s 4.28 speed makes him an ideal shot-play candidate against a defense that allows explosive gains on 12.7% of opponent pass attempts. Expect at least one schemed vertical look off play-action, particularly early in the second quarter.

Suggested Bet:

'O' 23.5 Yard Longest Reception (-115)

TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce’s quiet stat line last week (3 catches, 54 yards) belied his continued schematic importance. He was double-teamed on 52% of his routes — the highest mark of any tight end in Week 7 — yet still averaged 18 yards per catch and created separation on 67% of man-coverage snaps. Though his target totals dip when Rice is active, Kelce remains the key read in Mahomes’ RPO progression, particularly on option seams and sit routes. Washington plays man on 29.2% of coverage snaps, and while they’ve limited tight end volume (just 4.6 receptions per game allowed), they’ve been beaten for five touchdowns by TEs in their last four contests. The Commanders’ linebackers struggle in space, and their safeties have allowed a 75% completion rate when isolated on interior routes. Expect Kansas City to reassert Kelce’s dominance through motion and high-low crossers, using Rice’s drag routes to clear the middle. Washington has surrendered a tight end score in three straight games, and Kansas City’s red-zone target funnel remains squarely centered on Kelce and Rice. Against single-high man looks, Mahomes’ timing throws to Kelce near the goal line remain near-automatic.

Suggested Play:

First TD (+485)

Game Prediction

Fading the Chiefs at this point is just stupid. They look that prime 2023 season and I don't expect this to be that competitive at all. Give me the Chiefs and the Under points for the Commanders.

Best Bet: Chiefs -9.5 -145
Lean: Commanders 'U' 20.5 Pts -180
Prediction Commanders 14 Chiefs 30

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Chiefs): Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD (+137)

Best Pick: (Commanders): Marcus Mariota Anytime TD (+400)

The Chiefs have done a great job of keeping opposing teams out of the end zone, allowing the 4th fewest TDs (2.0) per game. That makes me believe Mariota will need to get crafty and make the play with his legs when the Commanders get close to the end zone. In his two starts, Mariota found the end zone once, on only eight rush attempts. The Chiefs allow the 2nd most rushing TDs (0.43) to opposing QBs per game.

Longshot:

Best Pick: (Chiefs) Travis Kelce First TD (+480)

The Commanders’ linebackers have allowed touchdowns in three straight games, and Mahomes’ first red-zone read continues to be No. 87 on pivot or seam routes. Against man coverage that struggles with motion and leverage, this is an ideal setup for Kelce to strike first — continuing his legacy as the NFL’s most reliable scripted-drive scorer.

Best Pick: (Commanders) Terry McLaurin First TD (+1600)

Who doesn't love a good comeback story? Well, McLaurin makes his return to the lineup, and might look to get their No. 1 WR going early and feed him with deep targets and end zone shots. Through his first three games, McLaurin did not find the end zone, which is a massive decline after scoring 13 TDs last season – the second most in the entire NFL. There was due to be some TD regression, but zero through three weeks is surprising. The Chiefs allow one passing TD per game, most of which have come to WRs – specifically outside WRs.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay 1: (Commanders) +260 odds on bet365

Marcus Mariota 30+ Rushing Yards

Deebo Samuel 5+ Receptions

Parlay 2: (Chiefs) +920

Rashee Rice 'O' 67.5 Receiving Yards

Patrick Mahomes 'O' 2.5 Touchdown Passes

Travis Kelce ATD

Vikings Team Overview

QB Carson Wentz

Carson Wentz didn't have the outcome he wanted against his former team; however, he still had a great statistical day. Wentz threw for 313 yards and added 28 with his legs. This week, he gets the Chargers defence, who allow the 9th fewest completions (19.3) and 9th fewest passing yards (204.9) per game, while also surrendering the 2nd fewest passing touchdowns (1.0). They also limit volume, facing the 14th fewest pass attempts (31.4) on average, but their vulnerability lies on the ground, where they allow the 3rd most rushing yards (30.6) per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Chargers’ defence leans heavily on zone coverage (78.5%, 7th most in the NFL), running mostly Cover 3 (35.2%) and Cover 4 (24.1%). Against zone overall, Wentz has been sharp, ranking 3rd in completion percentage (76.7%), 3rd in yards per game (216.3), and 2nd in yards per attempt (9.61), posting a strong 99.5 QBR. Wentz is especially efficient against Cover 3, completing 69.8% of passes while averaging 103.5 yards per game and 9.63 yards per attempt, both of which rank in the top five of all QBs. However, he hasn't faced much Cover 4, seeing just 12 dropbacks where he's completed 75% of throws but for only 48 yards. Although this Chargers defence has been good on the season, they allowed Daniel Jones to throw for nearly 300 yards last game (288). And given how Wentz has dominated zone coverage this season, he should have success throwing in a game where he'll need to against another pass-heavy team. Wentz has completed 25+ passes and cleared his rushing yards line in three straight games.

Suggested pick:

Carson Wentz o21.5 Pass Completions (-125)

Carson Wentz o11.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

RB Jordan Mason

At the time of this writing, we don't yet know if Aaron Jones will be active for this matchup. So we are moving forward with the assumption he is not. Mason has been consistent, but not amazing this season. He's logged three straight 50+ rushing yard games, and now gets the Chargers defence, who allows the 5th fewest rush attempts per game (17.9). Despite that, they’ve been middle of the pack in production, giving up the 16th most rushing yards (91.9) per game. Through the air, the Chargers have also been sound, allowing the 10th fewest receptions (4.3) but the 15th most receiving yards (30.4) per game to running backs. The low volume but middle of the pack yardage indicates that the Chargers allow big chunk plays. The Chargers’ defensive front has been evenly split between zone concepts (36.8%) and man/gap looks (40.4%), but they’ve been slightly more vulnerable in the latter. Los Angeles allows 4.54 yards per carry against zone and 4.9 against man/gap schemes, which mirrors Mason’s rushing profile. He averages 4.15 yards per carry against zone but a stronger 4.89 against man/gap. The Chargers have allowed a 15+ yard longest rush in five straight weeks: Taylor (23), Achane (49), Croskey-Merritt (27), Skattebo (16), Dobbins (41).

Suggested Pick:

Jordan Mason o14.5 Longest Rush (-110)

WR Justin Jefferson

With Wentz starting again this week, it's actually a good thing for Jefferson. He has logged 75+ receiving yards in each of Wentz's starts this season, topping out with 120+ in two of the last three weeks. This week, he faces a Chargers secondary that has excelled at limiting opposing passing attacks this season, allowing the 14th fewest receptions (11.3) and 9th fewest receiving yards (136.9) per game. With the Chargers relying heavily on zone coverages — particularly Cover 3 and Cover 4 — Jefferson and Wentz should continue their success. Against zone coverage, Jefferson leads all Vikings receivers with a 25.9% target share, totalling 24 receptions on 29 targets for 401 yards on 126 routes. He’s been especially dominant versus Cover 3, catching 10 of 12 targets for 202 yards on 55 routes this season — 18.4 yards per reception. While his Cover 4 sample is smaller in 2025 (4 receptions, 17 yards), his 2024 production in that look (178 yards on 19 receptions). Jefferson’s efficiency metrics in zone are elite: an 88.5% catch rate, 16.6 yards per reception, 8.2 yards after catch per reception, and 3.67 yards per route run. Jefferson lines up out wide on 77% of snaps this year. Against outside WRs, Los Angeles has allowed the 14th lowest target rate (86), the 5th lowest catch rate (58.1%) and 10th lowest yards per reception (12.2). However, Jefferson is matchup proof, and with how well he and Wentz are clicking against zone-heavy teams, that shouldn't change this week.

Suggested pick:

Justin Jefferson 80+ Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Jordan Addison

Addison is your typical boom-bust receiver. Last week, he saw the highest volume of his year, catching nine of 12 targets for 128 receiving yards. This week, he gets the zone-heavy Chargers. Against zone looks this season, Addison has 12 receptions on 19 targets for 217 receiving yards on 69 routes, leading all Vikings receivers with an impressive 18.1 yards per reception. His ability to stretch the field vertically remains a core part of Minnesota’s passing attack, but efficiency has dipped compared to his performance against man coverage. Addison’s catch rate drops to 45.5% against zone, and his yards per route run (0.98) also trails his man numbers. Looking deeper, Addison’s track record against specific coverages shows mixed results. Against Cover 3, he’s caught just 2 of 6 targets for 30 yards on 29 routes this season, a steep decline from his 2024 output of 327 yards on 26 targets against the same look. His sample size against Cover 4 is small this season, with just two receptions for 11 receiving yards on nine routes. Although, he wasn't the best against Cover 4 last year either, going for just 74 yards on his 14 targets. Like Jefferson, Addison also lines up out wide on 76% of his routes. His deep threat ability is always there, and he has connected with Wentz in two of the three weeks they've played together this season. However, his volume should dip in this matchup following a nine-reception outing last week.

Suggested pick:

Jordan Addison u4.5 Receptions (-140)

TE TJ Hockenson

Though he hasn't been outstanding this season, his volume with Wentz has been respectable. Over the last month, Hockenson has averaged 5.3 receptions on 6.5 targets for 42.3 receiving yards per game. This week, he gets the Chargers defence that allows the 13th most receptions (5.7) yet the 10th fewest receiving yards (43.7) per game to tight ends. Against zone this season, Hockenson has been a steady presence for Minnesota — catching 18 of 24 targets for 156 yards on 98 routes. His production spikes in these looks compared to man coverage, as his target share jumps from 9.8% to 24.4% when facing zone. He’s averaging 9.2 yards per reception, 4.6 yards after the catch per reception, and 1.71 yards per route run in those situations. Against Cover 3, where he owns the highest target share on the team (25%), he’s converted 9 of 13 targets for 92 yards on 43 routes in 2025. Against Cover 4, he’s caught all 3 of his targets this year for 20 yards. Hockenson runs inline on 45.1% of his snaps. Los Angeles is targeted at the 15th lowest rate (103) by inline players and allows the 10th lowest catch rate (76%) and 17th highest yards per reception (9.3). What we like most about Hockenson's matchup this week is his crazy spike in terms of team target share against zone coverage. He should see a heavier workload than the one that has already been increasing over the past few weeks. Hockenson has 4+ receptions in four straight weeks.

Suggested pick:

TJ Hockenson o3.5 Receptions (-145)

Chargers Team Overview

QB Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert’s Week 7 performance against the Colts was a microcosm of his season — flashes of brilliance clouded by costly turnovers and an overreliance on arm talent to compensate for a shaky run game. Despite the volume (55 attempts), Herbert was remarkably efficient when working rhythm throws, particularly off quick play-action and boundary isolation routes. This week, he faces a Minnesota defense that leans heavily into two-high shells (70% rate, most in the league) but struggles to disguise rotations post-snap. Herbert’s processing speed against that structure is elite; he manipulates safeties with his eyes and hits intermediate crossers before defenders can rally downhill. Expect the Chargers to leverage Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen underneath early to draw down coverage, opening seams for vertical shots to Quentin Johnston. With Los Angeles still struggling to establish ground consistency, the offense will once again funnel through Herbert’s right arm. Against a zone-heavy unit that allows completions in the middle third at the seventh-highest rate, two touchdown passes feels not just plausible — it feels inevitable.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 1.5 Pass TDs (-142)

RB Kimani Vidal

Kimani Vidal’s production last week was stifled by game flow more than performance. When the Chargers fell behind early, they were forced to abandon the ground attack. Yet, even in limited work, Vidal’s burst through the line and patience on inside zone runs stood out. He’s clearly surpassed Hassan Haskins as the featured back, commanding nearly two-thirds of backfield touches in consecutive games. Against Minnesota, there’s a clearer path to stability. The Vikings’ defense ranks middle-of-the-pack against the run but has shown cracks against one-cut zone runners — the exact archetype Vidal embodies. With Omarion Hampton still sidelined, the Chargers will look to regain offensive balance to keep Herbert clean from Brian Flores’ blitz looks. Expect Los Angeles to feature Vidal early behind pulling guards, targeting the edges of Minnesota’s front, which allowed over 100 yards rushing in five of seven contests. If the game script stays neutral, Vidal should clear this number comfortably through volume and sustained usage.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 50.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey’s role within this offense continues to evolve from complementary piece to featured target. Over the last three weeks, he’s averaged 12.3 targets per game, functioning as Herbert’s primary read on short and intermediate concepts. Against Indianapolis, his route tree expanded noticeably — curls, slants, and whip routes from the slot, combined with crossing patterns designed to exploit zone defenders’ depth. Minnesota’s defense will again offer those windows: their reliance on soft zone coverage leaves pockets at the second level, precisely where McConkey thrives. He’s developed an innate feel for spacing and timing, consistently uncovering himself on option routes when Herbert extends plays. Expect offensive coordinator Greg Roman to scheme early rhythm throws to him, setting up play-action seams later in the game. With the Vikings prioritizing coverage over pressure, McConkey’s volume should remain stable, making seven receptions a strong projection in a game where Los Angeles may throw 40+ times.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 5.5 Receptions (+120)

WR Quentin Johnston

Few receivers in the league are as dangerous when given a clean runway as Quentin Johnston. While his box score against Indianapolis was muted, the tape tells a more encouraging story — he consistently stacked his man on vertical routes, only for Herbert to misfire under duress. Minnesota, however, represents a far better matchup for deep threats. They’ve allowed the highest yards per route run (3.19) and the most yards per reception (18.2) to outside receivers, a glaring weakness against Johnston’s skill set. Expect the Chargers to isolate him on the boundary early, leveraging play-action and flood concepts to force single coverage on the back side. Once Herbert sees a safety rotate down, he’ll take the shot — and given Johnston’s average depth of target (15.6 yards), it may only take one catch to cash this. With his size-speed combination and Minnesota’s vulnerable back end, a long completion feels like an inevitability rather than a risk.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 20.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

TE Oronde Gadsden

Oronde Gadsden has emerged as the Chargers’ most reliable chain-mover outside of Keenan Allen, but it’s his red-zone prowess that’s beginning to define his role. Herbert has targeted Gadsden inside the 10-yard line on 22% of his red-zone throws since Week 6 — a testament to his body control and ability to shield defenders in tight spaces. Against Minnesota, that matchup only becomes more favorable. The Vikings have allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to tight ends on play-action rollouts this season, largely due to overpursuit by their second-level defenders. Expect Los Angeles to exploit that with bootlegs and misdirection near the goal line, leaking Gadsden across the formation for a free release. His chemistry with Herbert on scramble drills has also been excellent; if the pocket collapses, Gadsden has shown a knack for drifting into open space in the back of the end zone. With his target share climbing and confidence peaking, he’s a prime candidate to cap off a scoring drive under the lights on Thursday night.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+210)

Game Prediction

I think the Vikings can have some success and I see a lot of people on the "Herbert bounceback game" but Herbert in his career coming off a loss he follows it up that 2nd game having 10 wins to 13 losses and 4-5 when playing @Home. In these games they average 22.1 points per game. That is not a good sign at all for a bounceback. Wentz is a veteran and knows how to play in a loud hostile environment. Also Herbert is 9-10 @Home since 2023 compared to 11-7 on the road. There is no home field advantage for Herbert. Give me the Vikings to pull off a mini upset @LA.

Best Bet: Vikings +3.5 -115
Lean: Over 44.5 -125
Prediction Vikings 27 Chargers 24

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Vikings): TJ Hockenson (+250)

Hockenson has just one TD all season, but that's due to change with his increase in volume, especially with his uptick in target share against zone coverage. The Chargers are allowing 0.5 receiving TDs per game to opposing TEs, but have allowed a TE to score a TD in two straight weeks.

Best Bet (Chargers): Oronde Gadsden +210

Longshot:

Best Pick: (Vikings) Jordan Mason First TD (+550)

Mason scored the only TD for the Vikings last week. The Chargers don't allow too many TDs against this season; however, they let Jonathan Taylor rush for three last week. In fact, the Chargers have allowed the first TD in two straight games, both coming to the RB position. They allow the 5th most rushing TDs (1.2) per game to opposing RBs.

First TD (Chargers): Quentin Johnston +765

Justin Herbert and Greg Roman have opened several games this season with shot plays on the first or second possession, using play-action from heavy formations to manipulate safety depth. With Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen pulling attention to the middle of the field, Johnston should find space along the boundary for a one-on-one opportunity. The Vikings have allowed multiple first-quarter touchdowns to perimeter receivers this season — exactly where Johnston operates best.If Herbert sees a single-high rotation or the Vikings bite on early run action, look for him to let it rip. Johnston’s size-speed combo makes him the natural red-zone or explosive-play option to put Los Angeles on the board first.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay 1: (Vikings) +190 odds on bet365

Carson Wentz 200+ Passing Yards

Justin Jefferson 70+ Receiving Yards

TJ Hockenson 4+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Chargers) +730

Kimani Vidal ATD

Ladd McConkey ‘O’ 5.5 Receptions

Quentin Johnston ‘O’ 20.5 Longest Reception

Jets Team Overview

QB Tyrod Taylor

Tyrod Taylor is expected to take over for Justin Fields after he was benched at half in week 7. Tyrod completed 10 of 22 passes for 126 yards and 2 interceptions in the 2^nd half against the Panthers last week. His 25.9 QB rating was the lowest in league during week 7. He’ll face a Bengals defense that is 2^nd worst in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 3^rd most passing yards per game (257.1). The Bengals have the lowest blitz rate (15.8%) and the 4^th lowest pressure rate in the league (31.9%). However, that doesn’t seem to matter as the Jets were sacked 6 times against the worst pass rush in the league last week. Garrett Wilson remains out, so Tyrod will not have many weapons to operate with. In Tyrod’s 1 start, he completed 26 of 36 passes for 197 passing yards and 2 TDs. He also ran 8 times for 48 yards. Considering this time around he has no Garrett Wilson to throw the ball to, this could be a struggle. However, the matchup doesn’t get any better. I lean over on passing yards as the Jets are 6-point underdogs, but I don’t have a lot of confidence.

Suggested Pick:

Over 169.5 Passing Yards (-119) *Lean

RB Breece Hall

Breece is averaging 64 rushing yards per game on 4.53 YPC. He’s #1 amongst RBs with 50+ carries in explosive run rate (11.1%). He’ll face a Bengals defense that is 4^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed and has allowed the 6^th most rushing yards per game (137.3). The Bengals have been relatively worse against zone concept rush attempts. They are allowing 5.16 YPC (4^th most) and a 55.4% success rate (3^rd highest). That compares to 4.48 YPC (12^th most) and a 49.3% success rate (19^th most) against man/gap concepts. 71.7% of Hall’s attempts have been zone concept, a bullish trend for this matchup. The Bengals are 6.5-point favorites so game script could be an issue, but the Jets also have the 3^rd highest rush rate over expected. Hall accounted for 11 of 13 RB rush attempts last week and 22 of 24 the week before. In the receiving game, Breece is averaging 2.7 receptions and 25.5 receiving yards per game. The Bengals are 6^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and have allowed the 9^th most receiving yards per game to opposing backfields. Hall only ran a route on 27.3% of dropbacks last week, I’m not comfortable playing his receiving lines with that volume. I do expect a bounce back in the running game however.

Suggested Pick:

Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

WR Josh Reynolds, Tyler Johnson, Arian Smith

With Garrett Wilson out again this week, the Jets wide receiver room is a disaster. Last week, Arian Smith led the team in route rate at 88.6%. Josh Reynolds was 2^nd at 86.4%, followed by Allen Lazard at 52.3%. Their most productive receiver, Tyler Johnson, ran just 11 routes, but managed to catch 3 targets for 60 yards. Despite running 39 routes, Arian Smith caught just 1 of 3 targets for 0 yards. Reynolds saw the highest volume of targets but was inefficient. He caught 3 of 9 targets for just 29 receiving yards. He dominated 1^st-read rate at 36.8%. This receiving corp will face a Bengals defense that is 2^nd worst in EPA/Pass allowed, allowing the 3^rd most receiving yards per game. The Bengals specifically struggle against short yardage passes. On passes 10 or less yards downfield, they are allowing the 2^nd most YPRR (1.85), the 3^rd most receiving yards per game (164.3) and the most yards after catch per reception (7.43). This likely favors Taylor over the wide receivers as all of them have an aDOT over 10 yards.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

TE Mason Taylor

Through 3 weeks, the Jets rookie tight end ran a route on 71.8% of dropbacks but averaged just 14.3 receiving yards per game. He was targeted on just 12% of his routes. Week 4 was his breakout week. He caught 5 of 7 targets for 65 receiving yards. He was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate and target share at 33.3% and 25.9% respectively. Taylor built on that momentum in week 5, catching 9 of 12 targets for 65 yards against the Cowboys. He was targeted on 27% of his routes and was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.8%. He has not done much in the past 2 weeks, catching 4 of 5 targets for 33 yards. He’ll face a Bengals defense allowing the 2^nd most receiving yards, 4^th most receptions and the most TDs to TE. The Bengals specifically struggle against short yardage passes. On passes 10 or less yards downfield, they are allowing the 2^nd most YPRR (1.85), the 3^rd most receiving yards per game (164.3) and the most yards after catch per reception (7.43). Taylor only has 31 less receiving yards on the season than Garrett Wilson on targets 10 or less yards downfield. Love this matchup for Taylor!

Suggested Pick:

Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Anytime Touchdown (+275)

Bengals Team Overview

QB Joe Flacco

In 2 games with the Bengals, Flacco is averaging 280.5 passing yards per game, 6.10 YPA, a 65.2% completion rate and he’s thrown 5 total TDs. He is getting the ball out quick, which is helping this offensive line. His average time to throw of 2.31 seconds ranks 4 lowest amongst starting QBs in weeks 6 and 7. He’s only been pressured on 30.5% of his dropbacks. Browning was pressured on 43.8% of his dropbacks and he averaged 2.61 seconds to throw. Flacco will face a Jets defense that has blitzed at the 3^rd highest rate (35.5%) yet has the 10^th lowest pressure rate (34.4%). The Jets are 6^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and will be playing without their star corner Sauce Gardner. Wheels up for Joe Flacco and this entire offense. The only negative aspect for Flacco and this passing offense is that the Jets have the 4^th lowest pass rate over expected allowed, meaning teams tend to attack them via the run. They are also 6-point favorites.

Suggested Pick:

Over 238.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-160)

RB Chase Brown

Going into last week, Chase Brown averaged 33.7 rushing yards per game on 2.73 YPC. He finally broke through last week, running 11 times for 108 rushing yards against the Steelers. This week, he’ll face a Jets defense that is 15^th in EPA/Rush allowed and has allowed the 11^th most rushing yards per game. The Jets also allow the 4^th lowest pass rate over expected, meaning offenses tend to attack them via the run. After handling 85% of the backfield touches in the first 4 weeks, Perine has started to eat into Brown’s workload. Perine has 17 rush attempts to Brown’s 28 and has run a 36.4% route rate to Brown’s 46.4% in the past 3 weeks. The Jets have specifically ben strong against man/gap concept runs. They are allowing the 2^nd lowest success rate (35.9%) and the 5^th fewest YPC (3.6). 56.5% of Brown’s attempts have been in this concept, where he has a 45.8% success rate and is averaging 3.46 YPC. I lean over on rush yards as I expect a positive game script and healthy volume, but I don’t feel that strongly about it as Perine could continue to eat into some of Brown’s workload.

Suggested Pick:

Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-113) *Lean

WR Ja’Marr Chase

In the 2 games since Joe Flacco has taken over at QB, Ja’Marr is averaging 127.5 receiving yards per game, 2.83 YPRR and 39% TPRR. His 1^st-read rate is 50.8%. That compares to 74.8 receiving yards per game, 2.25 YPRR and 26% TPRR in the first 5 games. The Jets are 6^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and will be playing without their star corner Sauce Gardner. Chase has lined up out wide on 73.3% of his routes. The Jets are allowing the 6^th most YPRR (2.34) to wide alignment. The Jets have blitzed at the 3^rd highest rate (35.5%) yet have the 10^th lowest pressure rate (34.4%). When blitzed, Ja’Marr is averaging 2.13 YPRR and 29% TPRR. The Bengals are 6-point favorites so they may not need to throw that much, but considering the bullish matchup, especially with no Sauce Gardner, and Flacco’s commitment to pepper Ja’Marr with targets, I like his overs.

Suggested Pick:

Over 85.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

WR Tee Higgins

In the first 2 games with Joe Flacco at QB, Tee Higgins is averaging 79 receiving yards per game, 2.00 YPRR and 20% TPRR. That compares to 31.6 receiving yards per game, 0.99 YPRR and 17% TPRR in the first 5 games. The Jets are 6^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and will be playing without their star corner Sauce Gardner. Tee has lined up out wide on 87.4% of his routes. The Jets are allowing the 6^th most YPRR (2.34) to wide alignment. The Jets have blitzed at the 3^rd highest rate (35.5%) yet have the 10^th lowest pressure rate (34.4%). When blitzed, Higgins is averaging 1.82 YPRR and 25% TPRR. I prefer Higgins in this matchup, despite Sauce Gardner already being out, as his lines are much lower.

Suggested Pick:

Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Anytime Touchdown (+140)

TE Noah Fant

With Gesicki out for the first week last week, Noah Fant ran a route on 73.5% of dropbacks. That’s a huge jump from his season long 30.8% route participation rate prior to week 7. Fant caught 4 of 4 targets for 44 receiving yards. He averaged 1.22 YPRR and was targeted on 11% of his routes. He also hauled in a touchdown. He ran 50% of his routes from inline and 30.6% from the slot. The Jets are allowing the T-9^th most YPRR (1.90) to inline + slot alignment. Considering the Jets inability to pressure the QB and Flacco’s propensity to get the ball out quickly, Fant could be inline for another solid outing in a bullish matchup. I like him for over on receiving yards.

Suggested Pick:

Noah Fant Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Game Prediction

I want nothing to do with the Jets, especially on the road. The Bengals have looked much better with Joe Flacco than they did with Jake Browning. I expect the Jets to run run run here and honestly the Jets defense has looked really good the last 2 weeks. Give me Bengals to win but the Under as my favorite play

Best Bet: Under 46.5 -120
Lean: Bengals -6.5 -125
Prediction Jets 14 Bengals 24

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Tee Higgins (Bengals) +140

In Flacco’s 2 games with the Bengals, he has targeted Tee Higgins twice 3 times in the redzone. Tee scored once last week and against a Jets secondary that is missing their star Sauce Gardner, the Bengals should be able to throw all over them. All the attention will likely be on Chase as he has torched defenses the past few weeks, it’s Higgins’ time.

Mason Taylor (Jets) +275

The Bengals have allowed a league-leading 9 TDs to opposing tight ends. We are just 7 weeks into the season and Carolina led the league allowing 11 TDs to tight ends last season. Taylor is the Jets short yardage target and the Bengals have been awful on these targets, allowing the 2^nd most YPRR on targets 10 or less yards downfield.

First Touchdown Picks

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) +500

Ja’Marr is averaging 127.5 receiving yards per game with Joe Flacco at QB, with an insane 50.8% 1^st-read rate. With Sauce Gardner out for the Jets, this defense may be in trouble. The Jets are 6^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed. Chase is likely to go off again and will be Flacco’s top target the entire game, let’s have him score first!

Mason Taylor (Jets) +1600

This feels like tremendous value as the Bengals have been straight up awful against opposing Tight Ends. With Garrett Wilson out for the Jets, Taylor becomes the clear number 1 option. Feels right!

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (+725)

Breece Hall 60+ Rushing Yards

Mason Taylor 40+ Receiving Yards

Mason Taylor Anytime Touchdown

Parlay #2 (+410)

Joe Flacco 2+ Passing Touchdowns

Ja’Marr Chase Over 88.5 Receiving Yards

Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown

Parlay #3 (+1200)

Breece Hall 60+ Rushing Yards

Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown

Mason Taylor Anytime Touchdown

Bears Team Overview

QB Caleb Williams

It was a little bit of a disappointing week for Williams against the Saints, throwing for under 200 passing yards for the first time this season. But the Bears could do whatever they wanted on the ground; they may need to rely more on Williams' arm against the Ravens, especially if Lamar returns. The Ravens allow the 6th most completions (24.7), 9th most pass attempts (36), and 7th most passing yards (255.3) per game, while also giving up the 2nd most passing touchdowns (2.3). Their defence has remained stingy against rushing QBs, allowing the 9th fewest rushing yards (13.3) per game, so Williams’ legs might not be as impactful this week. Baltimore's defence is heavily man-oriented, running man coverage on 39.4% of snaps (3rd most), along with the 3rd most Cover 0 (6.4%) and 2nd most Cover 1 (33.1%). Against man coverage, Williams has seen the 8th fewest dropbacks (37) among qualified QBs but has been elite in those limited chances, ranking 4th in completion rate (69.7%), 1st in yards per attempt (10.61), and 2nd in QBR (134.7). Against Cover 0, he’s faced just nine dropbacks, completing 75% of his passes for 12.63 yards per attempt. In Cover 1, where Baltimore runs most often, Williams continues to shine with a 68% completion rate, 9.96 yards per attempt, and the 6th-highest QBR (113.6). We like a big bounce-back game for Williams, against a defence that has been struggling this season, and the offence might get a boost with Lamar's return.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams o223.5 Passing Yards (-105)

RB D'Andre Swift

Swift is coming off his best game as a Bear, after rushing for over 100 yards for the second consecutive week, and he found the end zone. This week, Swift faces a Baltimore defence that allows the 8th most rush attempts (23.2) and the 6th most rushing yards (109.7) per game, meaning teams have been able to both commit to and find success on the ground. They’ve also struggled to contain running backs through the air, giving up the 6th most receptions (5.2) and 9th most receiving yards (39.7) per game. Baltimore mixes its fronts nearly evenly between zone (40.8%) and man/gap (35.8%) concepts. However, the Ravens have been far more exploitable against man/gap, surrendering 5.8 yards per carry, the 2nd highest rate in the league. That weakness plays directly into Swift’s advantage, as he’s been productive against both styles — averaging 4.78 yards per carry vs. zone and 4.6 vs. man/gap. If Lamar is back, which by all reports looks likely, the Ravens' offence will be on the field more, resulting in fewer opportunities for Swift on the ground. Swift has gone under 15 rush attempts in four of six games this season.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift u14.5 Rush Attempts (-135)

WR DJ Moore

Moore continues to play second fiddle to Odunze this season, which was disappointing, as you were hoping to see an increase after their bye. This week, he gets the Ravens, who have quietly struggled against opposing wideouts this season, allowing the 7th most receptions (13.0) and 12th most receiving yards (148.7) per game. Against man coverage, Moore has been basically a non-factor, seeing just five targets on his 34 routes, turning that into three receptions for 38 receiving yards. Against Cover 0, he has one reception for 26 yards, and against Cover 1, he has two receptions for 12 yards on a combined 34 routes against the coverage. Statistically, Moore sees a slightly higher target share (13.9%) and more explosiveness in man coverage, averaging 13.3 yards per reception, 9.3 yards after catch per reception, and 1.11 yards per route run. His one limitation has been efficiency — a 60% catch rate. But take those improvements with a grain of salt, because remember, he has just five targets against man coverage. Moore has lined up on the outside for 63.5% of his snaps this season. Against outside receivers, the Ravens allow the 13th lowest catch rate (63.3%) and yards per route run (1.87), and the 11th fewest yards per reception (12.38). Going up against such a man-heavy team doesn't spell out a big night coming for Moore, who has surprisingly cleared this line in two straight weeks.

Suggested pick:

DJ Moore u39.5 Receiving Yards (-105)

WR Rome Odunze

After cementing himself as the clear top option for Williams and the Bears, Odunze has quieted down, catching just four of his 11 targets for 63 receiving yards through the last two weeks. But this poses his best matchup in against the Ravens, who have struggled stopping the pass this season. Odunze has shown an advanced ability to win against man coverage — something he’ll see a lot of this week. He’s caught 8 of 12 targets for 117 yards on 35 routes against man. Against Cover 0, he has just one target, but against Cover 1, he's caught seven of his 11 targets for 116 receiving yards on just 27 routes. What's most impressive is his massive 30.6% target share against man coverage. He’s turned that volume into a strong 72.7% catch rate and 3.25 yards per route run, though his yards per reception (14.6) and yards after catch per reception (3.8) have dipped slightly compared to his work against zone. Odunze lines up out wide on 59.9% of his routes, however, over the last three weeks, he has seen his slots snap increase to over 40%. Against slot receivers, the Ravens allow the highest catch rate (81.7%), the 8th most receiving yards per game (86), but are middle of the pack in yards per reception (10.53). It's been slow for Odunze over the past few weeks, but with his slot snaps increasing, we like Odunze to bounce back after a handful of low-volume weeks.

Suggested pick:

Rome Odunze o3.5 Receptions (-185)

Rome Odunze o4.5 Receptions (+125)

TE Colston Loveland

Finally we're starting to see Loveland take some work from Kmet. Last week, Loveland outsnapped Kmet 67.2% to 40.3%, and that resulted in Loveland's highest target share (15.4%) last week, and that should only continue this week against the Ravens. Baltimore allow the 6th most receptions (6.5) and 6th most receiving yards (67) per game to the position. Loveland’s usage against man coverage this season has been limited, but he’s been efficient when given the chance. He’s caught his lone target for 8 yards on 12 routes against man coverage – which came against Cover 1, which Baltimore runs at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL.

Loveland lines up inline on 52.7% of his snaps. Against inline receivers, the Ravens are targeted at the 8th lowest rate (22), the 7th highest catch rate (86.4%), the 9th most receiving yards per game (32.2), and the 11th highest yards per reception (10.16). We're finally seeing the rookie TE getting more involved in the offence, and that should amount to a big week coming one of these days.

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland o27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Colston Loveland 40+ Receiving Yards (+195)

Ravens Team Overview

QB Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson’s return comes at a critical time for a Baltimore team that sputtered offensively during his absence. Before the hamstring injury sidelined him, Jackson was playing arguably his most balanced football under offensive coordinator Todd Monken — blending controlled aggression as a passer with the kind of measured scrambling that breaks defensive structure. Across his first three healthy games, Jackson’s EPA per play ranked fifth in the league, while his success rate on designed runs sat near 63%, an absurd mark for a quarterback. Against Chicago, the Ravens will need both dimensions of his skill set. The Bears’ defense under head coach Ben Johnson plays a disciplined Cover-2 and Cover-3 blend but has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks who extend plays outside of structure. Their fifth-ranked man-coverage rate (33%) often leaves the middle of the field exposed when linebackers turn their backs in coverage — exactly where Jackson thrives. Expect Monken to weaponize that with layered crossing routes and RPO looks, using motion from Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman to manipulate safety depth. If the Bears stay committed to zone, Jackson’s patience and pocket command could lead to methodical scoring drives. But if they bring pressure, his legs may again be the Ravens’ most lethal weapon.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 1.5 Pass TDs (-150)

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry’s Week 6 performance reminded the league that he still has plenty left in the tank. The key was volume and tempo — Baltimore’s offensive line finally gave him consistent second-level access, and Monken allowed him to operate downhill rather than from static shotgun alignments. Expect that formula to carry over against a Bears front that, despite improvement, remains vulnerable to power concepts. Chicago allows 5.3 yards per carry and ranks near the bottom in yards before contact per rush, suggesting Henry could find early rhythm if Baltimore commits to the run. The Ravens have quietly leaned on inside zone less and shifted toward duo and counter looks, maximizing Henry’s ability to set up blocks and accelerate through vertical lanes. If Chicago stays light in the box to protect against Lamar’s play-action threat, Henry’s north-south power could dictate the flow of the game. The key matchup lies between Henry and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, whose range can erase cutback lanes if undisciplined pursuit angles are avoided. Baltimore’s offense runs through rhythm and toughness, and Henry, when given early confidence, supplies both.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 86.5 Rush Yards (-127)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers has been the lone consistent spark in Baltimore’s passing game, even through two weeks of backup quarterback play. His route nuance and quick-twitch separation ability have given Monken flexibility to align him anywhere whether that be slot, boundary, or motion flanker. With Lamar Jackson returning, expect the offense to rediscover its vertical layering concepts that were shelved with Cooper Rush under center. Flowers’ chemistry with Jackson has been particularly evident on deep dig and choice routes, where his acceleration forces defensive backs into leverage mistakes. The Bears’ secondary, though fast, has been exploitable by technically sharp route runners. Their heavy zone structure (61%) leaves soft spots between the hashes, and Chicago’s nickel defenders have been inconsistent carrying verticals. Expect Flowers to attack that space with intermediate crossers off play action, particularly when Henry’s presence draws linebackers downhill. If the Bears revert to man coverage, Flowers’ short-area burst and Jackson’s improvisational rhythm could create explosive opportunities. The rookie receiver has become Baltimore’s heartbeat — the pivot point between structure and chaos — and that makes him the most dynamic piece on the field this week.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 23.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

TE Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews has always been Lamar Jackson’s security blanket, but his return to form this season has been about more than volume — it’s been about timing. Before Jackson’s injury, Andrews was thriving on seam routes and delayed releases, exploiting linebackers in transition. The Bears’ defense presents a favorable schematic matchup here. They allow the second-most receptions per game (7.0) to tight ends and often concede space underneath their Cover-2 shells. Expect Monken to attack those voids early, using Andrews on intermediate sit routes and play-action crossers to control tempo and dictate coverage rotation.Where Andrews’ impact truly multiplies, though, is in the red zone. Chicago has surrendered touchdowns to opposing tight ends in four straight games, largely due to poor leverage discipline in condensed alignments. Jackson’s ability to extend plays makes Andrews even deadlier — few defenders can plaster him on broken plays where he improvises angles toward open space. If the Bears prioritize limiting Lamar’s runs near the goal line, Andrews becomes the natural counterpunch. His precision, toughness, and rapport with Jackson should again anchor Baltimore’s scoring identity as the Ravens aim to reassert themselves as one of the AFC’s most balanced offenses.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+150)

Game Prediction

The Ravens have not been able to score with Rush under center but the Bears have allowed 52,24,24 in their 3 road games. I think this is a spot where the Ravens get back on track before Lamar return

Best Bet: Ravens -2.5 -120
Lean: Ravens TT 'O' 21.5 Pts -135
Prediction Bears 21 Ravens 24

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Ravens) Mark Andrews +150

Best Pick: (Bears): D'Andre Swift TD (+135)

Swift has scored in three straight and four of the last five weeks. That streak shouldn't stop against the Ravens, who allow 1.5 TDs to RBs so far this season. Swift continues to dominate the goal-line work, despite Monangai getting garbage-time work.

First TD:

Longshot (Ravens) Lamar Jackson +800

Chicago’s defense, for all its progress, is particularly susceptible to quarterback runs in compressed spaces. Their front four plays high and upright, allowing soft edges when blitzes don’t land, and they’ve allowed rushing scores to mobile quarterbacks in three of their last five games. The Bears’ Cover-2 shell often widens the safeties just enough to open a crease off the right tackle — precisely where Jackson prefers to break contain. Expect Monken to exploit that alignment early, especially after establishing Derrick Henry between the tackles to force heavier defensive fronts.With Baltimore eager to reassert its physical identity and Lamar looking to make an immediate statement post-injury, the first touchdown scorer bet on Jackson (+850) fits both the script and the scheme. A designed keeper from inside the 10-yard line or a scramble on a broken play are both very live early-game outcomes

Best Pick: (Bears) Rome Odunze First TD (+800)

What is going on? It's now been two weeks since Odunze last found the end zone. After scoring in the first four weeks, he has gone cold. But the Ravens are the perfect matchup to get Odunze back in the score column, as they allow the 2nd most receiving TDs (1.7) per game to opposing WRs.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay 1: (Bears) +360 odds on bet365

Chicago Bears ML

Rome Odunze 4+ Receptions

Colston Loveland 20+ Receiving Yards

Dolphins Team Overview

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua is averaging 187.6 passing yards per game, 6.40 YPA and a 67.8% completion rate. He’s thrown 11 TDs and 10 interceptions. He’ll face a Falcons defense that is 5^th best in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the fewest passing yards per game (141.2). The Falcons have blitzed at the highest rate in the league this season (44.1%) and are 7^th in pressure rate (43.5%). When Tua is pressured, he’s averaging 3.72 YPA and a 48% completion rate. He’s been sacked 15 times on 71 dropbacks. That compares to 7.27 YPA and a 74.2% completion rate when the pocket is clean. This will likely be another rough outing for Tua, especially with Tyreek out for the season. The Falcons play single-high at the highest rate in the NFL (72.6%) and in tune the highest rate of Cover 3 (50%). Tua averages 6.18 YPA and 54.9% completion rate against single-high. He averages 6.54 YPA and 55.6% completion rate against Cover 3 in particular.

Suggested Pick:

Under 31.5 Yard Longest Completion (-112)

RB De’Von Achane

Achane is averaging 67.4 rushing yards per game on 5.30 YPC. He is 3^rd in the league amongst RBs with 50+ attempts in explosive run rate (9.0%). He’ll face a Falcons defense that is 9^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed and they are allowing the 14^th most rushing yards per game. They allow the 6^th most YPC (4.74). They have wide splits between man/gap and zone concept. Against man/gap, they are allowing the highest success rate (65.3%) and the 5^th most YPC (5.26). Against zone concept, they are allowing the 13^th lowest success rate (43.6%) and the 10^th fewest YPC (3.85). Only 33.7% of Achane’s attempts have been in man gap, but he’s been much more effective. He’s averaging 6.23 YPC and a 46.7% success rate. That compares to 4.72 YPC and a 39.6% success rate in zone concept. In the receiving game, Achane is averaging 30.1 receiving yards per game, but that includes a game with 92 yards. He’s under 31 receiving yards in all other games. That’s despite running a route on a healthy 65.2% of dropbacks. He’ll face a Falcons defense allowing the 4^th fewest receiving yards per game against RBs. I like Achane in the running game in this one!

Suggested Pick:

Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

Anytime Touchdown (-105)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Prior to Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, Waddle averaged 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.75 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 25.6% 1^st-read rate. In the 2 games without Tyreek prior to last week, he averaged 102.5 receiving yards per game, 3.66 YPRR, 30% TPRR and a 35.6% 1^st-read rate. He did not play well last week against the Browns, but the weather was also bad with heavy winds. He caught 1 of 4 targets for 15 receiving yards. Waddle has lined up out wide on 80% of routes since the Tyreek injury. The Falcons are allowing the 3^rd fewest YPRR against wide alignment (1.62) and are ranked 2^nd best in EPA/Pass allowed to wide. The Falcons play single-high at the highest rate in the NFL (72.6%) and in tune the highest rate of Cover 3 (50%). Waddle has positive splits against single-high, averaging 2.52 YPRR and 30% TPRR, compared to 1.94 YPRR and 18% TPRR against two-high. Against Cover 3, he averages 2.52 YPRR and 28% TPRR. The Falcons have blitzed at the highest rate and have the 7^th highest pressure rate. Waddle averages 2.23 YPRR and 23% TPRR against the blitz. The Dolphins are also 7.5-point underdogs, so they’ll likely be forced to pass as the game goes on. I lean over based on volume despite the tough matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Malik Washington

In the 3 games post Tyreek Hill’s season ending injury, Washington has ran a route on 61.6% of dropbacks. He’s averaging 17.3 receiving yards per game, 0.75 YPRR and 25% TPRR. Darren Waller was also placed on IR, so Malik may have more opportunities. He played a season-high 77.8% route participation rate last week. Waller had a 16.7% route participation rate due to leaving early with an injury, so this should be a pretty accurate read of how much Malik will play this week. On the season, he has lined up in the slot on 53.5% of his routes. The Falcons are 12^th best in EPA/Pass allowed to the slot and they have allowed the 7^th fewest YPRR (1.50) to this alignment. The Falcons play single-high at the highest rate in the NFL (72.6%) and in tune the highest rate of Cover 3 (50%). This season, Malik averages 0.56 YPRR and 21% TPRR against single-high. Last season, he averaged 1.42 YPRR and 19% TPRR against single-high compared to 0.78 YPRR and 16% TPRR against two-high. With an expanded role, a low aDOT (4.4) and a trailing game script, I like his receptions line at plus money.

Suggested Pick:

Over 3.5 Receptions (+115)

TE Julian Hill/Tanner Conner

Last week with Darren Waller leaving early with an injury, Conner and Hill both ran 11 routes. Tanner caught 1 of 3 targets for 28 yards. Hill caught 1 of 2 targets for 1 yard. From weeks 1-3 prior to Waller making his debut, Conner ran a route on 53.7% of dropbacks, while Hill ran a route on just 20.4% of drop backs. With Tyreek Hill now out for the season, the Dolphins may need to rely more on their TEs. In those 3 games to start the season, Conner caught 3 of 6 targets for 33 yards. These 2 do not have enough volume to justify playing any of their lines once they open, I’ll pass.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

Falcons Team Overview

QB Michael Penix Jr.

Michael Penix is off to a 3-3 start in his first season as the Falcons starting QB, but he continues to struggle finding his rhythm. He completed 21 of 38 passes (55.3%) for 241 yards and 1 TD in a 20-10 loss @ San Francisco last Sunday. For the season, Penix is averaging just 7.2 YPPA (17th) and has thrown multiple touchdowns in just 1 of his 6 starts. His 2.5% TD rate ranks 2nd worst among NFL starting QBs, ahead of only Cam Ward (1.8%). He enters week 8 dealing with a bone bruise and is listed as questionable, so keep an eye on his status. I would be surprised to not see Penix behind center with this being a home game against a winnable opponent, but in the chance, he is unable to go, Kirk Cousins is in line to get the start. Atlanta will host a dreadful Dolphins team in week 8 that comes in at 1-6, and they are 0-4 on the road to begin the season. Despite how inconsistent Penix has been, he has performed better at home. In 3 starts inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Falcons QB is averaging 287 pass YPG with 4 TD and only 1 INT. Miami runs zone coverage at a 68.2% rate (12th lowest) and man at a 26.6 rate (12th highest). They primarily lean on Cover-2 (28.3%), Cover-3 (23.5%) and Cover-1 Man (19.0%) for 70.8% of their total defensive snaps. Against these coverage schemes, Michael Penix has completed 60.7% (82 of 135) of his passes, while throwing 3 TD and 3 INT. My issue with his yardage total is that the Dolphins are so bad against the run. In fact, Miami has given up more rushing yards than any other team in the NFL, allowing 128.3 per game. On one hand I could see Atlanta using this week to work on lifting his confidence in the passing game, but considering Penix is dealing with bone bruises, it only makes sense to protect him and allow the running game to carve the Dolphins up. However, the spot I really like is for Penix to get multiple TDs. I know he’s only done this once all season, but it came at home vs Washington, and Miami has allowed 2+ TD in 4 of 7 games which includes, Drake Maye (2), Josh Allen (3), Bryce Young (2), Justin Herbert (2). The Falcons have an explosive running game, and when you couple that with a lousy run defense, along with the fact that the Dolphins average the fewest offensive plays per game (65.0), this should set Penix up for several passing touchdown opportunities on Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Michael Penix Jr. 2+ Pass TD (-114) FD
Michael Penix Jr. 3+ Pass TD (+350) FD

RB Bijan Robinson

Despite totaling 822 yards from scrimmage heading into week 7, I suggested that everyone avoid Bijan Robinson’s yardage last week, and it proved to be wise as the Atlanta tailback had just 92 combined rushing and receiving yards out of the backfield. Rather, the safest play was for him to find the end zone, which he did once on a 10-yard pass from Michael Penix. Now, Robinson finds himself with a great bounce back matchup on Sunday when he faces a Dolphins team that allows the most rushing YPG (128.3), 4th most YPC (5.2) and 3rd most yards after contact (3.9). On top of that, Miami gives up the 7th most receiving YPG (41.3) and 10th most receptions per game (4.7). Bijan leads all RBs, averaging a massive 152.3 yards from scrimmage, he’s coming off the only game this season where he didn’t eclipse the 100 yard mark and this Sunday, he is going up against the Dolphins who are surrendering a league-high 169.6 total YPG to their opponent’s backfield. This has all the making of a huge game for the Falcons lead RB. Miami has already been shredded by Rico Dowdle (234 yards, TD), Kimani Vidal (138 yards, TD) and Quinshon Judkins (84 yards, 3 TDs). Robinson is a player you can completely trust this week.

Suggested Bet:

Bijan Robinson 125+ Rush+Rec Yards (-136) FD
Bijan Robinson 150+ Rush+Rec Yards (+174) FD
Bijan Robinson 175+ Rush+Rec Yards (+350) FD

WR Drake London

Drake London posted huge games of 8-110-1 (vs WAS) and 10-158-1 (vs BUF), before being held to just 4 catches for 42 yards last week in San Francisco. One thing did remain the same, and it's that London is still commanding a big target-share in the Atlanta offense, and over the past 3 games, Michael Penix has looked his way 10, 16 and 10 times. He will match up against a Miami defense that runs Cover-2 (28.3%), Cover-3 (23.5%) and Cover-1 Man (19.0%) for 70.8% of their total defensive snaps. London has caught 26 of 41 targets (63.4% CR) for 351 yards and a TD when facing these coverage schemes. The problem facing London this week is that Miami has the worst rush defense in the NFL. This has aided the Dolphins in allowing the 3rd fewest receiving YPG (111.4), but most alarming for the Falcons WR is that MIA gives up the 5th fewest YPG (84.3) to receivers aligned out wide. When you consider that teams have not been forced to throw much against the Dolphins, and couple that with an Atlanta team who doesn’t throw the ball much when they are ahead, this gives me reservations for Drake London.

Suggested Bet:

Drake London u63.5 Receiving Yards (-114) FD

WR Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney made his return to the field for SNF, where he hauled in 3 of his 5 targets for 68 yards. This may not seem like much, but when you consider the Atlanta wide receiver had a total of just 7 receptions for 79 yards through the first 3 games, it definitely gives cause for some optimism. Mooney had an 83% snap share and was targeted on 13.0% of his routes. The Falcons like to line up both him and Drake London on the outside. The Dolphins have allowed only 50% of deep target balls thrown to the wideout position to be caught, and they are giving up the 7th fewest receiving YPG on 17 targets of 20+ air yards. London or Mooney either one could be on their way to a decent game early on but sustaining it could be difficult when you have Bijan Robinson, who can exploit Miami’s defense both in the rushing and pass-catching game. Betters need to see more consistency out of Mooney before laying their hard earned money down on him. But if you just can't help yourself, chasing Mooney for the Anytime TD is a low risk, high reward prop that won't put you out too much.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

TE Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts is right behind Bijan Robinson when it comes to having the best matchup this Sunday against Miami. After posting his worst game of the season, Pitts bounced back with 7 catches for 62 yards on 10 targets. The Falcons TE had an 83% route share, while being targeted at a 26% clip. Pitts has had at least 4+ receptions and 37+ receiving yards in 5 of his 6 games in ’25. The Dolphins may defend the WR position well, but this is anything but the case when facing opposing tight ends. Miami is giving up 7th most receiving YPG (64.3) and 9th most receptions per game (5.9) to TEs. In addition to his matchup, Pitts has great usage numbers in that he’s been on the field for 91.0% of Michael Penix’s dropbacks and the ATL tight end is getting 19.3% of the team's targets. I don’t see the Falcons doing a ton of passing, but outside of Bijan Robinson, Pitts offers the second most exploitable matchup. In addition to the aforementioned numbers, Miami allows the 5th highest completion rate (80.5%) and 5th most YPT (8.7) to opposing TEs. The Dolphins conceded games to Jaylen Warren (7-76-0), Dalton Kinkaid (5-66-1), Mason Taylor (5-65-0) and Oronde Gadsden II (7-68-0). I expect a very productive game out of Pitts in week 8.

Suggested Bet:

Kyle Pitts 40+ Rec Yards (-128) DK
Kyle Pitts 50+ Rec Yards (+130) DK
Kyle Pitts 60+ Rec Yards (+201) DK

Game Prediction

This Falcons blitz will kill the Dolphins. On the other side the Falcons should dominate on the offensive end. Give me the Falcons

Best Bet: Falcons -6.5 -125
Lean: Falcons TT 'O' 23.5 -155
Prediction Dolphins 17 Falcons 24

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Kyle Pitts (Falcons) +190 FD

The Dolphins have been carved up by opposing TE’s this year. Through the first seven weeks of the ‘25 season, Miami has allowed the 5th highest completion rate (80.5%), 5th most YPT (8.7), 7th most receiving YPG (64.3) and 9th most receptions per game (5.9). Kyle Pitts is coming off a game in which he was targeted 10 times. His best game of the season came in a week 4 home matchup against Washington, where he caught 5 balls for 70 yards to go with one TD. Miami is the only team Pitts has faced that has allowed more production at the TE position.

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) -105

The Falcons are 5^th best in EPA/Pass allowed and have allowed the fewest passing yards per game. The Falcons are 9^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed, so I expect the Dolphins to try to attack this defense via the run. Achane has scored in 5 of 7 games and even if the Dolphins go down big, Achane can produce in the receiving game.

First TD Picks

Darnell Mooney (Falcons) +1700 DK

Darnell Mooney seems to have finally returned from his lengthy hamstring injury. The Falcons WR caught 3 balls for 68 yards last week at San Francisco, and despite being sidelined for 3 weeks, he’s preserved himself as the team’s 3rd highest route participation per dropback (80.5%). Mooney may not be a player you can rely upon for 60 minutes, but he has the speed and ability to break open a big play at any given time.

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) +650

Same analysis as anytime, the way to attack this Falcons defense is through the run. I expect the Dolphins to come into this game and try to pound the rock early. Achane has the 3^rd highest explosive run rate, so he can break one for a TD at any point. Let’s get a TD early!

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (Falcons): Best Play +402 FD

Michael Penix Jr. 2+ Pass TD
Bijan Robinson 125+ Rush + Rec Yards
Kyle Pitts 40+ Rec Yards

Parlay #2 (Falcons): Longshot +2094 FD

Michael Penix Jr. 3+ Pass TD
Bijan Robinson 150+ Rush + Rec Yards
Kyle Pitts 50+ Rec Yards

Parlay #3 (Dolphins) +470 B365

De’Von Achane Over 62.5 Rushing Yards
Jaylen Waddle 60+ Receiving Yards
De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown

Bills Team Overview

QB Josh Allen

Josh is coming off a bye, and is averaging 232.8 passing yards per game, 7.85 YPA and a 68.5% completion rate. He’s thrown 11 TDs and 4 interceptions. He’ll face a Panthers defense that has the 13^th highest EPA/Pass allowed and they are allowing the 10^th fewest passing yards per game. The Panthers are last in the league in pressure rate (29.6%). Josh is averaging 6.14 YPA, a 49% completion rate and 2.11 ANY/A against pressure, compared to 8.54 YPA, a 76.4% completion rate and 9.76 ANY/A when not pressured, massive splits. In terms of scheme, they have a heavy zone approach, playing it at the 4^th highest rate (79.4%). Josh is averaging 7.56 YPA, a 70.6% completion rate and 6.5 ANY/A against zone. That compares to 7.97 YPA, a 64.5% completion rate and 8.11 ANY/A against man. In the running game, Josh is averaging 42.3 yards per game. He’ll face a Panthers defense that held Justin Fields to just 4 attempts for 22 rushing yards. Despite the Bills being 7-point favorites, the Panthers are forcing the 5^th highest pass rate over expected. I expect this passing game to come back alive post bye with Josh operating from a clean pocket.

Suggested Pick:

Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-114)

250+ Passing Yards (+170)

275+ Passing Yards (+320)

300+ Passing Yards (+600)

RB James Cook

James Cook is averaging the 2^nd most rushing yards per game (89.5) on 5.02 YPC. After scoring 5 TDs in the first 4 games, he’s been held scoreless in the last 2. He’ll face a Panthers defense that ranks 7^th best in EPA/Rush allowed and allowing the 8^th fewest rushing yards per game (92.6). Despite the Bills being 7-point favorites and this likely being a positive game script, the Panthers have forced the 5^th highest pass rate over expected, meaning offenses tend to attack them through the air. The Panthers specifically allow the lowest success rate against zone concept runs (32.3%) and the 4^th lowest success rate against man/gap concept (38.1%). Cook has around a 50% split between these 2 run types, having more success in zone concept. He has a 65.4% success rate and averages 5.79 YPC in zone concept, compared to a 63% success rate and 4.26 YPC in man/gap concept. The bullish aspect for Cook year over year is his workload. He has accounted for 80.4% of the Bills RB touches, which is 4th highest in the league. The matchup isn’t great and despite Cook’s success this season, I’d rather pass at his current rushing lines as they feel right around fair value.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir is averaging 44.7 receiving yards per game, 1.71 YPRR and he’s been targeted on 20% of his routes. He’s 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 18.4%. He’ll face a Panthers defense that has forced the 5^th highest pass rate over expected (meaning offenses tend to attack them through the air). Shakir has primarily lined up out of the slot, at a 69.4% rate. The Panthers have allowed the 16^th most YPRR (1.78) but are 9^th worst in EPA/Pass against the slot. The Panthers are last in the league in pressure rate (29.6%). When Josh operates from a clean pocket, Shakir averages 2.32 YPRR and 26%, sizable boosts. In terms of scheme, they have a heavy zone approach, playing it at the 4^th highest rate (79.4%). Shakir averages 1.8 YPRR and 21% TPRR against zone, compared to 1.67 YPRR and 18% TPRR against man. Shakir had similar positive splits against zone last season as well. He averaged 2.68 YPRR and a 31% TPRR, compared to 1.67 YPRR and 20% TPRR against man. Coming out of the bye after 2 straight losses, expect Josh to find his most trusted weapons in this one!

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)

6+ Receptions (+220)

WR Keon Coleman

Coleman is averaging 39.5 receiving yards per game, 1.49 YPRR and 21% TPRR. After a 112-yard receiving game week 1, Coleman has been quiet. Keon has primarily lined up out wide, at an 84.9% rate. Carolina allows the 8^th fewest YPRR to wide alignment. They do, however, force the 5^th highest pass rate over expected, meaning offenses tend to attack them through the air. The Panthers are last in the league in pressure rate (29.6%). When Allen has not been pressured, Coleman averages 2.02 YPRR and 30% TPRR. In terms of scheme, they have a heavy zone approach, playing it at the 4^th highest rate (79.4%). Against zone, Keon has negative splits averaging 1.44 YPRR and 19% TPRR. That compares to 1.68 YPRR and 26% TPRR against man. Coleman had similar splits last season, where he averaged 1.82 YPRR and 14% TPRR against zone coverage. That compares to 2.08 YPRR and 27% TPRR against man. I’m expecting this entire pass offense to see a boost out of the bye, I like Keon to bounce back with a long reception. Tyler Johnson, George Pickens, Jaylen Waddle, Stefon Diggs and Darnell Mooney all caught a 20+ yard pass in this matchup the past 5 weeks.

Suggested Pick:

Over 19.5 Yard Longest Reception (-108)

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid leads the Bills with 57.4 receiving yards per game, 2.84 YPRR and 24% TPRR. Kincaid missed week 6 with an oblique injury, but with the bye week to help him heal, it looks like he’ll return to the lineup against the Panthers. He’ll face a Panthers defense allowing the 4^th most receiving yards to tight end. The Panthers also force the 5^th highest pass rate over expected, meaning offenses tend to attack them through the air. The Panthers are last in the league in pressure rate (29.6%). When Allen has not been pressured, Kincaid averages 3.65 YPRR and 26% TPRR. In terms of scheme, they have a heavy zone approach, playing it at the 4^th highest rate (79.4%). Against zone, Kincaid has positive splits, averaging 3.26 YPRR and 25% TPRR. That compares to 2.38 YPRR and 24% TPRR against man. The one negative for Kincaid remains his route participation rate, at only 55.5%. Kincaid’s efficiency makes up for his part-time receiving role; I’m expecting a big game out of the entire passing offense out of the bye.

Suggested Pick

Over 3.5 Receptions (-134)

5+ Receptions (+157)

Anytime Touchdown (+230)

Panthers Team Overview

QB Andy Dalton

Bryce Young is dealing with a high ankle sprain and has yet to practice this week. For all intensive purposes it appears Andy Dalton will be making his first start of the season for Carolina when they host the Bills this Sunday. Dalton posted a 1-4 record for the Panthers in those 5 games, averaging 197.8 pass YPG on a 66.3% completion rate, while throwing 7 TD and 6 INT. Should he get the start, Dalton will face a Buffalo team that runs Cover-3 (32.0%) and Cover-2 (21.1%) schemes for over half of its defensive snaps. The big intangible to note is the Bills own the 2nd highest pressure rate in the league at 43.3%. In 5 starts in ’24, Dalton completed 42 of 64 passes (65.6%) for 329 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT and when faced with pressure, the Carolina backup was 9 of 15 (60.0% CMP) for 75 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT. It goes without saying, these numbers are nothing to shout at, but this is also an extremely small sample size. At the same time, Dalton is too far removed from his playing days in Cincinnati to gain anything reliable from those statistics. What we know based on last year is that Dalton averaged 4.5 YPPA when he was under pressure, and BUF gives up an NFL- low 4.1 YPPA. The Panthers backup QB will make some decent plays on Sunday, but to what degree of regularity is the main question. Dalton offers Carolina more at the QB position from a pure passing standpooint. At the same time, what Buffalo has done defensively since allowing 40 points to the Ravens in week 1 cannot be ignored. The Bills have limited opponents to an average of just 19.4 PPG, and no disrespct to Andy Dalton, but in order for the Panthers to have a chane at pulling off an upset this Sunday, Dave Canales must take advantage of an extremely weak BUF run defense. Rarely do I pass on all QB related props, but there are too many uncertainties surrounding Dalton.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

RB Rico Dowdle

Even with the return of Chubba Hubbard, it has not prevented Rico Dowdle from maintaining his all-out rampage vs NFL opponents. Over his last 3 games, the Panthers RB has carried the ball 70 times for 468 yards (6.7 YPC). Another interesting note is that Hubbard out-snapped Dowdle 33-28, however Rico finished with more carries (17-14). Most importantly, Dowdle was far more efficient on his touches than Hubbard. In fact, Chubba ran the ball 14 times for 31 yards (2.2 YPC), while Rico totaled 79 yards (4.6 YPC) on his 17 carries. I’m not exactly sold on Carolina, but being a 7-point underdog is a lot, especially when you are playing at home. If the Panthers want any shot at knocking off Buffalo they will need to run the ball, and the Bills have one of the worst rush defenses in the league. They are allowing a league-high 5.8 YPC on the ground, and despite playing only 6 games they’ve given up the 8th most rushing yard to the RB position, not to mention the 2nd most TDs (8). In order to pull off the upset this Sunday, the Panthers must continue to use Rico Dowdle when he is in the backfield. He is clearly the better running back right now, and I am looking for head coach Dave Canales to use him in order to exploit a BUF run defense that is giving up 116 rush YPG (3rd most). As it relates to Rico, opposing RBs are averaging 21.2 rush attempts per game, and Hubbard is still going to get his share of carries, but we’ve already seen some running back duos both get double-digit carries against the Bills. I love Dowdle to get over 11.5 carries in this game, and if Chubba’s production is not there again this week, Rico will get an even larger workload.

Suggested Bet:

Rico Dowdle o11.5 Rush Attempts (-133) DK

Rico Dowdle 50+ Rush Yards (-122) FD
Rico Dowdle 60+ Rush Yards (+144) FD
Rico Dowdle 70+ Rush Yards (+225) FD

WR Tetairoa McMillan

As predicted, Tetairoa McMillan was unproductive in week 7 lined up across from Sauce Gardner. It was McMillan’s lowest output of the season as the Carolina receiver caught just 3 balls for 33 yards. A week prior, he had 3 catches for 29 yards but was bailed out by 2 TD receptions. Now, McMillan will face a Buffalo team who gives up the 12th fewest receiving YPG to WR aligned out wide (94.8). On the contrary, the Bills are allowing the 7th most YPRR (2.16) and recently let Drake London shred them for 10-158-1. The best news here for McMillan is that he will have Andy Dalton behind center. Alongside Bryce Young, McMillan is forced to win more one-on-one matchups, and he sees a huge dropoff in targets when going up against zone defense (20.2%). The transition to Dalton provides McMillan with a natural throwing QB, which should provide him with more opportunities for targets. The Bills employ zone coverage at a 72.6% rate and lean heavily on Cover-3 (32.0%) and Cover 2 (21.1%) for 51.1% of their snaps. Tetairoa McMillan has never been paired with Dalton in his career so there’s no history of numbers. Because of that, I’m not going to go chasing his yardage, especially with CAR likely to be running the ball a lot. With that said, I do like an uptick in his receptions, and he has a much more accurate QB in Dalton, who is a seasoned veteran. If you’re looking for something else to back this play up, consider that Buffalo has been torched by #1 WRs, Zay Flowers (7-143-1), Stefon Diggs (10-146-0), Drake London (10-158-1) and Tyreek Hill (5-49-1).

Suggested Bet:

Tetairoa McMillan o4.5 Receptions (-105) DK

Tetairoa McMillan Anytime TD (+185) FD

WR Xavier Legette

After seeing a total of just 5 targets in weeks 5 and 6 combined, Xavier Legette exploded for 11 targets, where he caught 9 balls for 92 yards, adding a TD for good measure. Legette finished the game with a season-high 35.5% target share for the game. A big contributor to the spike in his numbers was Sauce Gardner’s matchup with Tetairoa McMillan. Assuming Bryce Young will be unable to go, Legette will have Andy Dalton as his starting quarterback. When he played alongside Dalton last year, the Panthers receiver had just a 17.6% target share, but he did haul in two TDs. One possible issue facing Legette this Sunday is that Jalen Coker will be on the field for the second consecutive week. He was limited to running a route on only 47.0% of Young’s dropbacks, but I expect that number to increase with each week. I’m fading Legette in this spot.

Suggested Bet:

Xavier Legette u32.5 Receiving Yards (-109) DK

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders

Ja’Tavion Sanders made his return to the field last Sunday, and all it did was further complicate the tight position in Carolina. Last week’s game featured a 3-player TE by committee situation that nobody benefited from. Sanders ended the game with 3 targets, Mitchell Evans logged 2 and Tommy Tremble had just 1. It’s difficult enough trying to predict which tight end will emerge out of the 3, but it's not unusual for the Panthers to completely ignore the position all together. Considering Buffalo allows the 2nd fewest receptions (14) and 2nd fewest receiving yards (131), it would be illogical to put your money behind Sanders, Mitchell or Evans.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

Game Prediction

Panthers have been good but also extremely inconsistent. Panthers are not winning 4 straight! Give me the Bills by 10+

Best Bet: Bills -6.5 -140
Lean: Panthers TT 'U' 21.5 Pts -180
Prediction Bills 30 Panthers 20

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Rico Dowdle (Panthers) +155 DK

This is a very nice spot for Rico Dowdle. The Panthers RB has found the end zone 3 times (2 for rushing TD) this season and will face a Bills team that has already surrendered 8 rushing TDs to opposing RBs through their first 6 games of the season (2nd most in NFL). They’ve allowed at least 1+ rush TD in 5 of 6 games and have given up multiple rush TDs to the RB position in 3 of 6 games. Buffalo has conceded touchdowns to Derrick Henry (2), Ollie Gordon II (1), Kendre Miller (1), Rhamondre Stevenson (2), Bijan Robinson (1) and Tyler Allgeier (1).

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) -105

First TD Picks

Chubba Hubbard (Panthers) +1300 DK

Chubba Hubbard returned to the lineup for Carolina last Sunday and as expected, found himself splitting carries with Rico Dowdle. He had 14 total touches, and while he’s only scored in the receiving game this year, Buffalo ranks 30th in rushes per touchdown (18.1) and this is a sneaky stat that raises Hubbard’s value as the first TD scorer on Sunday.

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) +650

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (Panthers): Best Play +355 DK

Rico Dowdle 12+ Rush Attempts

Rico Dowdle 60+ Rush Yards

Tetaroia McMillan 5+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Panthers): Longshot +1500 DK

Rico Dowdle Anytime TD

Rico Dowdle 14+ Rush Attempts

Rico Dowdle 70+ Yards Rushing

Tetaroia McMillan 6+ Receptions

Parlay #3 (Dolphins) +470 B365

De’Von Achane Over 62.5 Rushing Yards

Jaylen Waddle 60+ Receiving Yards

De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown

49ers Team Overview

QB Mac Jones

With Brock Purdy still nursing turf toe, Mac Jones is again expected to lead San Francisco’s offense. Kyle Shanahan simplified the game plan last week against Atlanta — cutting Jones’s attempts from 39+ in earlier weeks down to 26 — and the results reflected a more balanced, rhythm-based passing approach. Houston presents one of the league’s most coverage-disciplined defenses, deploying zone coverage on 79% of dropbacks (fourth-highest) and man on just 14.9% (26th). This dictates that Jones will have to be patient, taking checkdowns and layering throws underneath linebackers rather than testing tight windows downfield. Houston’s linebacking corps thrives in pattern-matching zone concepts — particularly Cover-4 and Cover-6 rotations that limit explosive plays. Against these coverages, Jones has posted just 6.4 yards per attempt this season, but his completion rate jumps above 71% when he throws in rhythm within 2.4 seconds. Shanahan’s play-action structure and intermediate slant concepts should allow Jones to stay efficient, though big plays will likely be rare. Expect the 49ers to rely on early-down efficiency via short passes to backs and quick curls to Kendrick Bourne to stay ahead of schedule. The Texans’ high zone rate forces opposing quarterbacks into checkdown-heavy sequences, and Jones’s quick-release profile aligns perfectly with that defensive setup. Even without explosive production, the volume should accumulate through short, repetitive completions.

Suggested Play:
'O' 20.5 Pass Completions (-125)

RB Christian McCaffery

Christian McCaffrey remains the ultimate schematic equalizer. Against Houston’s top-five run defense (84.0 rushing yards allowed per game, fifth-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt at 1.47), success won’t come easily on the ground. However, McCaffrey’s multidimensional usage — particularly as a receiver — makes him almost coverage-proof. The Texans rank first in fewest receiving yards allowed to running backs (18.2 per game), but much of that is by design; they’ve faced few offenses capable of isolating linebackers in space like San Francisco can. When Houston sits in zone (which they do nearly four out of every five snaps), McCaffrey is Shanahan’s release valve against soft hook defenders. He averages 2.4 yards per route run against zone and has been targeted on nearly 29% of Jones’s attempts in those looks. Expect frequent motion to pull linebackers out of position, clearing space for McCaffrey on angle routes, screens, and swing passes. The Texans’ coverage soundness between the numbers will push the Niners to call perimeter tosses and designed misdirection to create lateral running lanes instead of brute-force interior carries. Houston’s defense dares opponents to take the underneath throws. Given their high zone percentage and the 49ers’ reliance on scripted touches for McCaffrey in early drives, his reception volume remains the safest angle.

Suggested Bet:

'O' 5.5 Receptions (+100)

WR Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings continues to play through a string of nagging injuries — ribs, ankle, and groin — but Week 7 marked a step forward in availability and involvement. He ran routes on 86% of dropbacks and drew a 27% target share, yet turned that volume into only 31 receiving yards. His profile remains that of a possession receiver who wins on physicality and timing rather than separation. Against Houston, that type of receiver tends to be neutralized. The Texans’ secondary is one of the most disciplined zone units in football, operating Cover 3 on 33.5% of snaps and Cover 4 on 23.3%, totaling a 56.8% split-safety rate that limits horizontal windowing routes like slants and curls — Jennings’ bread and butter. Through those coverage structures, Jennings has averaged just 0.88 yards per route run (YPRR) and a 0.17 targets per route run (TPRR) rate — production metrics that drop sharply compared to his man-coverage efficiency. Houston’s system funnels passes inside to tight ends and running backs while suffocating perimeter timing routes, allowing the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game (95.2) and the 7th-fewest YPRR (1.75) to wideouts aligned outside. With Houston’s linebackers and safeties closing on crossers aggressively, Jennings is likely to see his catch efficiency decline, even if the targets remain steady. Houston’s discipline in Cover 3 and pattern-match quarters leaves little room for perimeter receivers who lack vertical burst. Expect limited yards after catch and capped ceiling in a slow-paced game plan built around McCaffrey and the tight ends.

Suggested Bet:

'U' Receiving Yards

WR Kendrick Bourne

Kendrick Bourne enters this matchup looking to rebound from a quiet outing in which he managed just two targets for 14 yards despite running routes on 75% of dropbacks. That usage dip coincided with a recalibration of San Francisco’s offense back toward heavy personnel sets and short play-action design. The Texans’ defense presents a unique challenge for Bourne: they thrive on zone containment, playing 79% zone overall and forcing receivers to settle for shallow curls and intermediate breaks. Bourne’s production splits align with this environment — he’s logged 91 routes against Cover 3 and Cover 4 this season, averaging 2.30 YPRR and 0.21 TPRR, which ranks best among San Francisco wideouts. However, Houston’s coverage philosophy under DeMeco Ryans aims to eliminate the very intermediate windows Bourne prefers. The Texans allow the 7th-fewest yards per target (7.72) and the 13th-most yards per reception (13.6) to outside receivers, which reflects bend-but-don’t-break containment — a tough landscape for volume-based route runners like Bourne. Expect Jones to continue looking his way as a stabilizer on 2nd-and-medium situations, but explosive plays will be rare unless Houston’s zone discipline breaks down post-motion. While yardage may come sparingly, Bourne remains the most reliable short-area option against a defense that invites checkdowns. Expect steady volume from quick-hitting in-breaking routes and drag concepts designed to counter zone depth.

Suggested Bet:

'O' Receptions

TE George Kittle

George Kittle’s return to the lineup didn’t translate to box score production — he logged a 79% route share but failed to secure a catch on either of his two targets. While his presence opened run lanes for McCaffrey, this week’s defensive matchup suggests another quiet receiving day. Houston’s coverage metrics paint a difficult picture: they allow the 5th-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends (37.3) and the 8th-fewest receptions per game (4.5). Their linebackers excel in depth discipline, particularly against play-action, where most tight ends generate their chunk plays against vacated zones. From a structural standpoint, the Texans’ defensive design under DeMeco Ryans directly mirrors the system Kittle once practiced against daily when Ryans was San Francisco’s defensive coordinator. Houston’s heavy Cover 3 (33.5%) and Cover 4 (23.3%) base limits seam openings and squeezes tight ends off vertical stems. Kittle himself has averaged just 0.60 YPRR and a 0.20 TPRR on 20 routes against those coverages, reflecting the same struggles seen on film — contested looks, bracketed leverage, and no room to separate. While Kittle remains a foundational blocker and situational decoy, the statistical floor for his receiving usage remains low against this defensive structure. Houston’s zone-heavy alignment neutralizes middle-of-the-field options, and with Kittle likely spending more time in protection versus a high-pressure front, his opportunities will be limited. Expect more chip assignments than targets, making this under one of the cleaner plays on the slate.

Suggested Play:
'U' 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Texans Team Overview

QB C.J. Stroud
On the season, Stroud has completed 125 of 193 passes (64.8%) for 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, adding 20 carries for 147 yards on the ground. Last week's performance saw him complete 23 of 49 passes for 229 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, along with 2 carries for 25 yards. He wasn’t good and lost his top wideout in the process. His advanced metrics include a 6.76 yards per attempt, a 91.1 passer rating, and a 6.7% sack rate. A notable concern is his adjusted completion percentage (71.2%, 31st), but he also boasts a strong 1st read percentage (68.9%, 10th). The primary obstacle for Stroud this week is the absence of his top wide receiver, Nico Collins, which will undoubtedly impact the passing game. Despite this, the Texans will likely be forced to throw in this game. The matchup against the San Francisco 49ers is complex. The 49ers run zone coverage at the 14th highest rate (74.6%), primarily Cover 3, which Stroud has been solid against. Interestingly, the 49ers rank 20th in pass rush grading, suggesting Stroud might have more time in the pocket than typically expected against a top defense. Since losing Nick Bosa, they rank just 7th in pressure rate (29%). Furthermore, Stroud ranks 6th among quarterbacks in redzone pass rate, and the 49ers allow the 6th highest redzone touchdown rate, potentially opening up scoring opportunities despite the general defensive strength. Given the absence of Collins, the Texans are likely to implement a shorter passing gameplan to compensate. While unappetizing on the surface, backing Stroud to exceed relatively conservative passing totals could be the ugly answer.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 20.5 Passing Completions (-110)

RB Nick Chubb
On the season, Chubb has carried the ball 63 times for 265 yards (4.2 YPC) and 2 touchdowns, adding 8 catches on 13 targets for 41 yards. His advanced metrics among qualified running backs paint a picture of mediocrity, with a 4.21 YPC (21st), a low 3.2% explosive run rate (24th), and a 47.6% stuff rate (21st). Last week's performance was particularly concerning, as Chubb managed just 5 carries for 16 yards and 0 touchdowns, along with 1 catch on 3 targets for a negative 5 yards. Now, they fell behind pretty early, but SF doesn’t look like a matchup they’ll play with a lead in. The matchup against the San Francisco 49ers defense, while not historically impenetrable against the run, is still not one to exploit. The 49ers have allowed the 20th most rushing yards per game (100.9), the 21st highest yards per carry (3.97), and the 21st highest explosive run rate (3.4%). These figures suggest they are a middle-of-the-road run defense, but certainly not a pushover. This is not a spot I’m looking to back Chubb, especially given the volatility between his and Mark’s workloads.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Woody Marks
On the season, Marks has rushed 46 times for 152 yards (3.3 YPC) and a touchdown, also showcasing his receiving ability with 9 catches on 14 targets for 116 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns. Last week highlighted this trend, as he had 10 carries for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns, but added 3 catches on 5 targets for 20 yards and a crucial receiving touchdown. While his overall YPC (3.3) is lower than Nick Chubb's, Marks has demonstrated more explosiveness with a 4.3% explosive run rate. However, he has also been frequently stuffed (60.9% stuff rate), a testament to the Texans' struggling 17th-ranked run-blocking offensive line. The most significant development for Marks is his emergence as the primary back out of the bye week, playing 60.9% of offensive snaps and even out-touching Chubb 3-0 inside the 10-yard line. This shows us a possible transition to the younger back as we head into the second half of the season. The matchup against the San Francisco 49ers run defense is not ideal for rushing yardage, as they are generally stout. However, Marks's primary appeal lies in his involvement in the passing game. While the 49ers rank 22nd in running back target rate, meaning they don't concede a huge volume of targets to the position, Marks's recent usage suggests he's carved out a specific role. If he is still to have an increased role and will out-touch Chubb this week, his lines are likely too low. Given his ability as a receiver, I’ll take his rushing and receiving to be safe.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 53.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Xavier Hutchinson
Xavier Hutchinson of the Houston Texans emerges as an interesting option, primarily due to an increase in projected volume. With both Nico Collins and Christian Kirk out, Hutchinson is slated to become the Texans' de facto number one wide receiver, unexpectedly. On the season, he has secured 13 receptions on 18 targets (a strong 72.2% catch rate) for 123 yards, along with one carry for 5 yards. Last week, despite the expanded role not yet materializing fully, he caught 1 pass on 4 targets for 13 yards. Hutchinson primarily plays out wide (80.6%) and has respectable advanced stats, including a 9.1% target rate, 9.46 yards per reception, and an impressive 127.8 passer rating when targeted, indicating efficiency when the ball comes his way. The matchup against the San Francisco 49ers defense is not as daunting as it might seem on paper for receivers. The 49ers are allowing the 28th most receiving yards per game (225.1), the 23rd highest yards per reception (10.37), and have allowed 11 receiving touchdowns this season (tied for 12th highest). While this isn't an elite pass defense to attack, it's not impenetrable either. Given the expected increase in target share due to injuries to other key receivers, Hutchinson is set to receive a volume of opportunities he hasn't seen before. All of the Texans WR’s are going to have low numbers, but it makes sense to back the guy that has been reliable even when everyone was healthy.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Jaylin Noel
I want to talk about Noel here, as he’ll act as the primary slot wide receiver this week with Kirk still sidelined (in slot 67.9% of the time). SF is a good matchup for slot wide receivers and without both Collins and Kirk, the field is wide open for targets. SF allows the 4th most receiving yards per game out of the slot (94.1), 3rd highest yards per reception (12.92) and has allowed 6 touchdowns. Noel only has 14 targets and 9 catches on the season, but this looks like a small breakout spot for the rookie. He’s my favorite option to back from these wide receivers this week.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz of the Houston Texans emerges as the most reliable and highest-upside option in the Texans' passing game this week. While Xavier Hutchinson will step into the #1 wide receiver role, Schultz is poised to likely be the number one passing option for C.J. Stroud, a trend supported by his consistent usage. On the season, Schultz has been remarkably efficient, catching 30 of 37 targets (81.1%) for 284 yards, though he is still searching for his first touchdown. His performance last week was a clear indicator of his potential role, as he hauled in an impressive 9 catches for 98 yards on 10 targets, leading the team in both categories. His advanced metrics include 9.5 yards per reception and a solid 4.5 yards after the catch per reception. Schultz offers versatility in his alignment, with 57.6% inline, 34.0% in the slot, and 7.4% out wide. Crucially, Schultz commands an 18.3% target share, which is by far the highest among all healthy pass-catchers for the Texans. This established rapport with Stroud, combined with the absence of Nico Collins and Kirk, means Schultz should get targets. The matchup against the 49ers is also quite favorable for tight ends. SF allows the 9th most targets per game (8.00), the 14th most receptions (5.57), and the 20th most yards (48.6) to opposing tight ends. It’s over or pass once again as I see value in Schultz too.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Game Prediction

I hate this Texans offense but love this defense. Mac Jones could struggle here on the road and the Texans offense is a disaster right now. Give me the Under.

Best Bet: Under 43.5 -135
Lean: 49ers +3.5 -120
Prediction 49ers 20 Texans 17

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (49ers) Christian McCaffery -160

It’s rarely a bad week to back Christian McCaffrey, but this particular matchup reinforces why he remains one of the most reliable touchdown scorers in football. Houston’s defense under DeMeco Ryans is elite at limiting explosive passing plays — ranking top-five in fewest passing TDs allowed (0.7 per game) — but that same zone-heavy structure concedes consistent red-zone pressure from multi-dimensional backs. McCaffrey’s versatility as both a runner and receiver gives him multiple entry points into the end zone. The Texans run zone coverage on 79% of snaps (fourth-highest in the league) and Cover 3 at a 33.5% clip, meaning their linebackers are often spread horizontally and forced into decision-making conflicts when facing pre-snap motion. Shanahan’s scheme exploits that perfectly: McCaffrey is motioned laterally on 37% of San Francisco’s red-zone snaps, forcing edge defenders into hesitations that open both stretch lanes and checkdown opportunities. Inside the 10-yard line, Houston allows a touchdown on 65% of goal-to-go drives, ranking 19th in the league. Against zone looks, McCaffrey averages 1.82 yards before contact per rush and leads all running backs in targets inside the 10 (10 total this season). Shanahan continues to script first-read swing passes and delayed flats specifically to him, making CMC just as dangerous as a receiver as he is between the tackles. McCaffrey has scored in 10 of his last 11 regular-season games when seeing 20+ touches, and Houston’s high zone rate provides the exact defensive spacing he thrives against. Whether it’s a cutback off inside zone or a designed angle route off play-action, the Texans’ second level will struggle to match McCaffrey’s burst and spatial awareness near the goal line.

Longshot (Texans) Jaylin Noel +340
Noel finds himself in a great spot this week with Collins and Kirk out. SF allows the 4th most receiving yards per game out of the slot (94.1), 3rd highest yards per reception (12.92) and has allowed 6 touchdowns. This is a nice price for a guy that could be heavily utilized all over the field.

First TD

Longshot (49ers) George Kittle +880

Expect Shanahan to script a short-yardage bootleg within their first 10–12 plays. Houston’s linebackers bite hard on misdirection, and with McCaffrey occupying the flat, Kittle often slips unnoticed behind the second level. That’s been a go-to sequence for Shanahan inside the 15, and with Jones relying heavily on defined reads, Kittle is the most likely target on a play-action rollout to the right.

Longshot (Texans) Dalton Schultz +1000
Schultz has yet to score a touchdown this season, but what better time to do it than when your top WR is out? Of what reamins in the offense, Shultz has, by far, the most target share on this group. He still has 3 redzone targets on the season and should continue to be a go-to option for Stroud as they will likely be playing from behind.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (49ers): +465

Christian McCaffery ATD
Mac Jones 'O' 20.5 Completions
George Kittle 'U' 54.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (Texans): +372

C.J. Stroud 225+ Passing Yards
Jaylin Noel 30+ Receiving Yards
Woody Marks 50+ Rushing + Receiving Yards

Giants Team Overview

QB Jaxson Dart

Philadelphia’s defense presents one of the more complex coverage matrices in the NFL — running man coverage on just 27.6% of dropbacks (11th-highest rate) and zone on 66.9% (21st). They rely heavily on pattern-matching principles that morph between Cover-3 Cloud and Quarters, disguising rotations post-snap to bait young quarterbacks into throwing into leverage. For Jaxson Dart, who has thrived off anticipation and pocket movement, this represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Against Denver, he completed multiple throws into tight windows when the defense disguised pre-snap man into Cover-2 rotation — evidence that his processing speed is ahead of schedule. The Eagles’ zone-heavy tendencies, however, align with Dart’s comfort zone. He’s posted over 8.5 yards per attempt versus split-safety looks this season and has excelled at manipulating shallow defenders with his eyes. Philadelphia’s pressure rate remains top-five league-wide, but their sack-to-pressure conversion ratio (just under 17%) suggests they often force early movement without closing the deal. Expect the Giants to counter that with layered route structures and early RPOs designed to punish defenders sitting in hook zones. Dart’s ability to escape pressure and make throws off-platform — especially rolling right — gives New York a fighting chance to exploit coverage busts downfield. With Philly ranking fifth in rushing yards allowed to QBs (27.1 per game) and playing more man coverage inside the 20, Dart’s scrambling ability becomes a high-probability scoring weapon. Expect a designed keeper or broken play scramble to turn into a red-zone score.

Suggested Bet:

Anytime Touchdown (+205)

RB Cam Skattebo

Cam Skattebo remains the embodiment of this offense’s physical identity, and his dual-threat skill set will again be pivotal against a Philadelphia front that ranks among the league’s elite in run defense metrics. While the Eagles allow the 11th-fewest adjusted yards before contact (1.76), their linebackers often struggle in coverage, surrendering 32.0 receiving yards per game to running backs — a weakness Kafka has shown a willingness to attack with motion screens and angle routes. Against man coverage, Philadelphia’s edge defenders tend to overcommit upfield, leaving underneath releases uncovered. Skattebo has been quietly efficient in those situations, averaging 2.3 yards per route run versus man looks — one of the highest rates among running backs with 20+ targets. The Giants may use that to their advantage through delayed leaks and Texas routes, particularly when the Eagles rotate into man near the red zone. His 50% carry share and 46% route share last week reinforce his three-down role, making him a constant factor regardless of game script. Given the Eagles’ vulnerability in the short passing game and Skattebo’s consistent role, this line is conservative. Expect a balanced mix of carries and receptions, particularly if New York is forced into a pass-heavy script.

Suggested Play:

'O' 3.5 Receptions (+120)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

Few receivers have been more efficient versus zone coverage this season than Wan’Dale Robinson. Against zone, Robinson has posted a 21.1% target rate, 68.1 PPR points, and an elite 0.36 fantasy points per route run equivalent, reflecting strong underlying efficiency. The Eagles’ coverage breakdown — 66.9% zone rate — plays directly into Robinson’s strengths. His route precision, tempo variation, and ability to sit between hook defenders have made him nearly uncoverable in quick-game concepts. Against man, he’s been targeted on 22% of routes and averages 0.47 FP/RR, showing that he still finds ways to win through leverage manipulation rather than pure speed. Philadelphia’s slot defenders, particularly Avonte Maddox replacements, have surrendered the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game (51.4) to slot targets, but that figure is inflated by facing low-volume slot offenses. Expect Kafka to use stacked formations and motion to free Robinson into space early, then pivot to deeper over routes once the Eagles flatten coverage. With his target rate against zone and Dart’s reliance on him as a rhythm outlet, Robinson should again command heavy short-area volume — especially on crossers and curls underneath blitzing linebackers.

Suggested Bet:

'O' 5.5 Receptions (-105)

WR Darius Slayton

Darius Slayton’s potential return comes at a crucial time for New York’s vertical game. While the Giants’ offense has been efficient underneath, it has lacked explosiveness — a void Slayton naturally fills. Philadelphia’s defensive structure allows 132.1 receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers, ranking third-most in the NFL, and they’ve given up the 15th-highest yards per route run (1.97) to wideouts aligned outside. Slayton, who averaged 14.1 air yards per target prior to injury, fits perfectly into this exploitable weakness. Against man coverage, Philadelphia corners play with aggressive trail technique, leaving them susceptible to double moves and vertical stems — two of Slayton’s specialties. With the Eagles running man roughly 27.6% of snaps, Slayton will have ample chances to win isolated matchups, especially when the Giants move him across formations to avoid Darius Slay. Expect early deep play-action shots to test the safeties’ discipline. This line directly correlates to coverage trends. Philadelphia’s defense has allowed completions of 20+ yards on 12% of opponent passing attempts against man coverage — one of the league’s highest rates. If Slayton’s active, one clean release could cash this prop.

Suggested Bet:

Pass for now, but potentially an over on longest receptions if playing.

TE Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson continues to carve out a niche as a red-zone and vertical seam threat in Kafka’s offense. The Eagles’ coverage metrics reveal why he could matter again: they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest receptions per game (4.0) but the third-fewest receiving yards (31.4) to tight ends, meaning they force short-area targets but often lose track of delayed leaks. Johnson’s athletic profile allows him to exploit that — particularly when working off play-action. In the Giants’ last meeting with Philadelphia, Johnson saw a 21% target share and 88% route participation, signaling his integral role. His 41-yard deflected touchdown was more than luck; it was the product of constant seam pressure and awareness to capitalize on zone spacing. Expect Kafka to use heavy personnel to force single-high rotations, freeing Johnson to attack voids behind linebackers. His size also makes him an effective isolation target against smaller nickel defenders near the goal line. Philadelphia’s defense ranks bottom ten in red-zone touchdown rate allowed to tight ends. Johnson’s increasing involvement in play-action packages and his catch radius make him a prime candidate to find the end zone on a designed leak or back-shoulder throw near the pylon.

Suggested Bet:

First Touchdown (+2085)

Eagles Team Overview

QB Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts heads into a rematch with the Giants in a favourable setup against a defence that continues to allow steady passing production. New York gives up the 5th most completions (24.9), pass attempts (39.1), and passing yards (258.3) per game. While they’ve managed to keep touchdown passes limited (10th fewest, 1.3 per game), they also surrender the 3rd most rushing yards (27.3) to opposing QBs. The Giants run one of the league’s most aggressive coverage schemes, relying on man coverage 40.4% of the time (2nd most) and Cover 1 on a league-high 34.4% of snaps. Against man coverage this season, Hurts faced the 9th most dropbacks (66) and ranks top 10 in passing yards per game (8th most, 72), yards per attempt (6th most, 8.26), and QBR (8th highest, 122.5), and just missed the top 10 for completion percentage (12th highest, 63.9%). Hurts has been similarly efficient against Cover 1 looks. Across 37 dropbacks versus that scheme, he’s completed 62.5% of passes for 8.6 yards per attempt and holds the 4th-highest QBR (121.2) in the league against it. In their most recent matchup two weeks ago, Hurts had his best outing to date, completing 24 of his 33 pass attempts for 283 passing yards and a TD. He also added 13 rushing yards and another score on seven carries. With AJ Brown already being ruled out, we think it's time for Hurts to take the game over with his legs a bit more and take advantage of the Giants inability to slow down opposing QBs.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts 30+ Rushing Yards (-130)

Jalen Hurts 40+ Rushing Yards (+155)

RB Saquon Barkley

The Eagles will have another opportunity against this Giants run defence to get Saquon going. He had such a good start against them two weeks ago, but due to score effects, they had to abandon the run. The Giants are still a good matchup for RBs, as they allow the 13th most rushing yards (96.3) despite facing the 6th fewest rush attempts (18) per game. They're decent through the air, allowing the middle of the pack in receptions (4.4) and receiving yards (28.7) per game to opposing RBs. The challenge for Barkley comes from how the Giants defend the run. They rely heavily on man/gap concepts (46.8%), the 5th-highest rate in the league. Against those fronts, Barkley has struggled significantly this season, averaging just 2.32 yards per carry — the lowest mark of any running back with at least 15+ carries versus man/gap defences. However, the Giants also struggle in that coverage, as they allow a league-high 5.84 yards per carry. It's been an awful start to the year for Saquon Barkley; however, the breakout has to be soon. The Eagles saw sparks of it early against the Giants, but went away from it. I don't think they make the same mistake this time around. That being said, I'm not there yet in trusting Barkley. But can he break a long run? I bet ya he does.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley o17.5 Longest Rush (-130)

WR DeVonta Smith

With AJ Brown now on the shelf, it's Devonta Smith's WR room to run away with. Smith had four receptions for 49 receiving yards on his five targets against the Giants two weeks ago. The Giants allow the 3rd most receptions (14.4) and the 2nd most receiving yards (181) per game to wide receivers. The Giants’ defence runs man coverage at one of the highest rates in football, including a heavy dose of Cover 1. Smith has been productive against man coverage this season, catching 8 of 12 targets for 94 yards on 62 routes. While his efficiency metrics dip slightly in man situations — posting a 53.8% catch rate, 10.6 yards per reception, and 1.35 yards per route run — his target share improves to 23.6%. Against Cover 1 specifically, Smith doesn't have the greatest numbers, catching three of his six targets for 38 receiving yards. Smith has lined up in the slot on 63.9% of his snaps this season. Against slot receivers specifically, where Smith lines up on 64% of his routes, the Giants are targeted at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL, allowing the 3rd most receiving yards per game (97.3) and the 5th highest yards per reception (11.95). We typically would fade Smith in this matchup, but with Brown out, Smith should be the focal point of the passing offence for the Eagles.

Suggested pick:

Devonta Smith 70+ Receiving Yards (-145)

Devonta Smith 100+ Receiving Yards (+215)

WR Jahan Dotson

We won't spend too much time on Dotson. He just isn't used much in the offence. He has a 6.2% target share on the season. Against man coverage, which the Giants run at the 2nd highest rate, Dotson has just one reception on four targets for 24 receiving yards on his 49 routes. Now with AJ Brown out, he should see a massive increase in snaps from his regular sub 50%. With that in mind, Dotson's work should be high enough to see more than one reception since Week 1. He lines up on the outside on 55.1% of his snaps, to which the Giants allow the 2nd most receptions per game to opposing WRs.

Suggested pick:

Jahan Dotson o1.5 Receptions (-160)

TE Dallas Goedert

Goedert was the receiver who had the best game against the Giants two weeks ago, catching eight of his 11 targets for 110 receiving yards and a TD. New York’s defence allows the 10th most receptions (5.9) per game but limit the big plays, giving up the 16th fewest receiving yards (51.1). Goedert has been active against man coverage this season, catching 7 of 10 targets for 38 yards on 44 routes. He’s earning a healthy 22% target share when facing man, but his efficiency has taken a hit. Goedert’s 77.8% catch rate and 5.4 yards per reception are below his season averages, though he continues to add value after the catch with 4.6 yards per reception in those situations. Against Cover 1, a look the Giants use frequently, he’s caught 3 of 5 targets for 17 yards on 27 routes. While Goedert’s lines up all over the field, his versatility should help him avoid some of the tougher coverage metrics the Giants have shown against inline tight ends. New York allows the 5th lowest catch rate (68%) and the 2nd lowest yards per reception (6.82) to inline receivers, which TEs typically line up. However, Goedert ran over 73% of his routes from the slot or out wide last week, where we could see him more around more with Brown on the shelf. With Brown last season, Goedert had 50+ receiving yards in three of four weeks, averaging 81.3 receiving yards per game.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert o49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Game Prediction

Eagles will be without AJ Brown and last year in 3 games without him they were 1-2 scoring just 21,15,16 points. The Giants scored 34 against the Eagles just a couple weeks ago but I think they adjust here and do much better. Under is a sharp read here in my opinion

Best Bet: Under 43.5 -125
Lean: Giants +7.5 -120
Prediction Giants 14 Eagles 21

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Giants): Jaxson Dart +205

Philadelphia’s defense presents one of the more complex coverage matrices in the NFL — running man coverage on just 27.6% of dropbacks (11th-highest rate) and zone on 66.9% (21st). They rely heavily on pattern-matching principles that morph between Cover-3 Cloud and Quarters, disguising rotations post-snap to bait young quarterbacks into throwing into leverage. For Jaxson Dart, who has thrived off anticipation and pocket movement, this represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Against Denver, he completed multiple throws into tight windows when the defense disguised pre-snap man into Cover-2 rotation — evidence that his processing speed is ahead of schedule. The Eagles’ zone-heavy tendencies, however, align with Dart’s comfort zone. He’s posted over 8.5 yards per attempt versus split-safety looks this season and has excelled at manipulating shallow defenders with his eyes. Philadelphia’s pressure rate remains top-five league-wide, but their sack-to-pressure conversion ratio (just under 17%) suggests they often force early movement without closing the deal. Expect the Giants to counter that with layered route structures and early RPOs designed to punish defenders sitting in hook zones. Dart’s ability to escape pressure and make throws off-platform — especially rolling right — gives New York a fighting chance to exploit coverage busts downfield. With Philly ranking fifth in rushing yards allowed to QBs (27.1 per game) and playing more man coverage inside the 20, Dart’s scrambling ability becomes a high-probability scoring weapon. Expect a designed keeper or broken play scramble to turn into a red-zone score.

Best Pick: (Eagles): Dallas Goedert TD (+250)

Goedert has a knack for the end zone recently, scoring five TDs over the last five weeks, including one the last time he played the Giants. New York allows 0.3 TDs to opposing TEs per game this season. Goedert has six total red zone targets this season, catching five of those balls. So if he gets a red zone target, he's likely taking it to the house.

Longshot:

First TD (Giants) Theo Johnson +2085

Philadelphia’s red-zone zone coverage frequency (72% of defensive snaps inside the 20) and their history of losing track of inline tight ends make Johnson a legitimate early-game scoring threat. Expect the Giants to lean on play-action from heavy personnel and capitalize on his leverage advantage before Philadelphia adjusts.

Best Pick: (Eagles) Jalen Hurts First TD (+400)

It was a bit of an odd week for Hurts on the ground last week, rushing for negative 10 yards. He should look to try and use his legs again, after totalling six rushing yards over the last three weeks. Last game against the Giants, Hurts had four consecutive tush pushes on the goal line, so they aren't afraid to use that tactic against this team.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (Giants): +2305

Cam Skattebo 'O' 3.5 Receptions

Theo Johnson ATD
Jaxson Dart ATD

Parlay 1: (Eagles) +260 odds on bet365

Jalen Hurts 30+ Rushing Yards

Devonta Smith 60+ Receiving Yards

Dallas Goedert 40+ Receiving Yards

Browns Team Overview

QB Dillon Gabriel

Dillon Gabriel enters Week 8 in an attempt to stabilize a passing offense that has yet to find its rhythm. In three straight starts, his efficiency has trended downward — culminating in a 13-for-18 performance for 116 yards (6.4 YPA) against Miami. His deep passing accuracy has dropped to 28% on throws beyond 15 yards, and his scrambling output has been minimal (17 rushing yards on six attempts). Against a Patriots defense that ranks 11th in passing yards allowed (251.3 per game) but thrives on red-zone discipline, Gabriel faces an uphill climb. New England’s coverage distribution is split between Cover 1 (26%) and Cover 3 (28%), forming a combined 54% man-match shell that thrives on forcing quarterbacks to process post-snap rotations. They mix in 30.7% man coverage (9th-highest) and 65.5% zone (23rd), disguising alignments through motion. Gabriel has struggled in those very conditions — averaging just 6.1 YPA versus single-high coverage this season. The Patriots’ hybrid safeties consistently close vertical windows and have surrendered only one passing touchdown over their last three games. Expect New England to keep the Browns in predictable long downs, forcing Gabriel into checkdowns and compressed pocket throws. The Patriots’ rotating coverage shells eliminate big plays and challenge inexperienced quarterbacks to string together long drives. Gabriel’s low depth of target (6.2 yards) and limited rushing upside point toward another low-output game.

Suggested Bet:

'U' 199.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Quinshon Judkins

Quinshon Judkins has been Cleveland’s emotional and physical catalyst — 25 carries for 84 yards and three touchdowns against Miami showcased his vision and finishing power. But the matchup this week represents a complete shift in defensive style and difficulty. New England allows the fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.27), the second-fewest rushing yards per game (59.0), and holds opponents to just 3.17 yards per carry, all elite metrics. They anchor their front in gap integrity, allowing their linebackers to scrape cleanly across outside zone — precisely the type of run scheme Cleveland relies on. The Patriots’ run fits are supported by a secondary that rarely needs safety help near the box — their 65.5% zone rate keeps both safeties deep while still closing run lanes via fast downhill triggers. For Judkins, who has only one reception in his last three games, the lack of receiving involvement compounds the risk. Unless Cleveland can create short fields or benefit from defensive penalties, his volume will have to overcome a defensive front allowing fewer than 2.8 yards after contact per rush. This is one of the toughest possible matchups for a pure north-south runner. No running back has reached 50 rushing yards against the Patriots all season. Their interior line eliminates cutback lanes and forces early contact. Expect heavy resistance and limited efficiency even on high volume.

Suggested Bet:

'U' 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy’s season has stalled at the intersection of inefficiency and inconsistency. Over his last six games, he has failed to reach 51 yards and remains without a touchdown despite 46 total targets. Last week’s weather-affected outing (2 receptions, 17 yards) doesn’t fully explain the decline — Jeudy’s route precision and timing with Dillon Gabriel remain off by half-beats, especially on vertical stems. Against New England, that margin for error will shrink even further. The Patriots blend Cover 1 (26%) and Cover 3 (28%) on 54% of defensive snaps, aligning directly with Jeudy’s weakest efficiency splits. Against those coverages, he’s averaged only 0.72 yards per route run and a 0.20 targets per route run rate over 147 routes. However, the underlying matchup data is favorable if execution finally aligns — New England allows the fourth-most yards per route run (2.42) and the eighth-most receiving yards (120.1) to wide receivers aligned out wide. Their perimeter defenders have struggled with double moves and intermediate crossers, the very routes Jeudy’s release package is designed for.The question is consistency — his knee injury limited his early-week practice time, and if he’s less than 100%, he’ll be hard-pressed to capitalize on single coverage. If healthy, he remains the Browns’ best chance at generating explosive plays downfield against a defense occasionally beaten on isolation fades and over routes. While risky, this is a buy-low spot against a defense that’s quietly allowed 120+ receiving yards to WR1s in four straight games. Expect at least one designed shot play to Jeudy off play-action against Cover 1 looks.

Suggested Play
'O' 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Harold Fannin

Harold Fannin has emerged as an unexpected stabilizer for Cleveland’s passing attack. With Njoku sidelined, Fannin ran routes on 83% of dropbacks last week and led the team in targets (28% share). His rapport with Dillon Gabriel has been a rare bright spot — Fannin has recorded at least four receptions in three consecutive games, showing comfort finding soft spots in zone coverage. The Patriots’ coverage tendencies present both a challenge and opportunity. Their Cover 1 (26%) and Cover 3 (28%) mix neutralizes seam routes, but their linebackers allow tight ends to average 62.1 receiving yards per game (11th-most), as the zone transitions between safety and linebacker depth remain a soft spot. Against these structures, Fannin has posted 1.79 yards per route run and a strong 0.25 targets per route rate across 106 total routes — elite efficiency for his sample size. New England’s biggest vulnerability comes when safeties are forced to rotate late against condensed sets, leaving tight ends isolated on play-action bootlegs. Expect Cleveland to scheme early misdirection to open Fannin on crossing concepts. With Cleveland likely trailing and Gabriel favoring underneath reads, Fannin projects as the most reliable short-to-intermediate target. His route share and catch efficiency align with a high-probability over on receptions, especially in negative game script. A good place for him to be targeted may just be the end zone as well.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD +325

Patriots Team Overview

QB Drake Maye

Drake Maye is averaging 249.1 passing yards per game, 8.63 YPA and a 75.2% completion rate. He’s thrown 12 total TDs and 2 interceptions. He’ll face a Browns defense that ranks 13^th in EPA/Pass allowed, allowing the 3^rd fewest passing yards per game (173.7). The Browns are middle of the pack in pressure rate, ranking 15^th with a 37.9% rate. When pressured, Maye is averaging 8.18 YPA and a 54.4% completion rate. That compares to 8.81 YPA and an 83.4% completion rate when not pressured. The Browns have run single-high at the 3^rd highest rate (61.2%). They have also run man coverage at a top 6 rate (34.4%). Against single-high, Maye is averaging 9.84 YPA, a 75.9% completion rate and a 121 QB rating. That compares to 7.24 YPA, a 74.5% completion rate and a 111.2 QB rating against two-high. Maye also has positive splits against man. He’s averaging 10.09 YPA, a 72.3% completion rate and an insane 139.8 QB rating against man. That compares to 8.35 YPA, a 75.7% completion rate and a 105.6 QB rating against zone. Expecting Maye and the Patriots to throw a lot as the Browns have an elite run defense.

Suggested Pick:

Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-115)

250+ Passing Yards (+180)

Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson finally had a decent outing last week, rushing 18 times for 88 yards and 1 TD. He handled 72% of the backfield rush attempts. On the season, he’s averaging 35 rushing yards per game on 3.55 YPC. This week is a much tougher matchup, as the Browns allow the least YPC (3.26) and rank number 1 in EPA/Rush allowed. They haven’t been as dominant as of late, as Achane rushed for 82 yards last week. The Browns are particularly tough against man/gap concept. They are allowing the 3^rd lowest success rate (37.5%) and the fewest YPC (3.06). 58% of Rhamondre’s attempts have been in man/gap concept, where he has a 42.5% success rate. The only positive for Stevenson is that the Patriots are 7-point favorites, but I’m still confident Rhamondre goes under his respective rush lines.

Suggested Pick:

Under 48.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Under 11.5 Yards Longest Rush (-130)

WR Stefon Diggs

Diggs is averaging 65.1 receiving yards per game, 2.87 YPRR and 28% TPRR. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 24.5%. He’ll face a Browns defense that is 13^th best in EPA/Pass allowed, but number 1 in EPA/Rush, so relatively speaking the Patriots should attack through the air. Diggs has lined up out wide on 56% of his routes and in the slot on 44%. The Browns are allowing the 12^th fewest YPRR (1.60) to the slot and the 16^th fewest to wide alignment (1.92). The Browns have run single-high at the 3^rd highest rate (61.2%). They have also run man coverage at a top 6 rate (34.4%). Diggs averages 3.85 YPRR and 27% TPRR against single-high this season. Diggs has similarly strong splits against man. He’s averaging 4.89 YPRR and 35% TPRR against man this season. Strong splits for Diggs in a matchup where I don’t expect the Patriots to be able to run the ball, I like his overs!

Suggested Pick:

Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Kayshon Boutte

Boutte is averaging 50.9 receiving yards per game, 2.03 YPRR but has only been targeted on 14% of his routes. He is 3^rd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 14%. He’ll face a Browns defense that is 13^th best in EPA/Pass allowed, but number 1 in EPA/Rush, so relatively speaking the Patriots should attack through the air. Boutte has mostly lined up out wide, at a 90.3% rate. The Bears have allowed the 16^th fewest YPRR to wide alignment (1.92). The Browns have run single-high at the 3^rd highest rate (61.2%). They have also run man coverage at a top 6 rate (34.4%). Boutte averages 2.30 YPRR and 17% TPRR against single-high this season. Boutte has negative splits against man, averaging 1.47 YPRR and 8% TPRR this season. However, last season Boutte averaged 2.22 YPRR and 20% TPRR against man coverage. That compared to 0.97 YPRR and 14% TPRR against zone.

Suggested Pick:

Over 17.5 Yard Longest Reception (-110)

TE Hunter Henry

Henry is averaging 44.3 receiving yards per game, 1.73 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. He’s 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 18.9%. He’ll face a Browns defense that is 13^th best in EPA/Pass allowed, but number 1 in EPA/Rush, so relatively speaking the Patriots should attack through the air. Henry has lined up all over, 43.6% from the slot, 33% inline and 21.2% out wide. The Browns have allowed the 12^th fewest receiving yards to TE. The Browns have run single-high at the 3^rd highest rate (61.2%). They have also run man coverage at a top 6 rate (34.4%). Henry averages 1.99 YPRR and 20% TPRR against single-high this season. Henry has negative splits against man, averaging 0.89 YPRR and 19% TPRR. Last season, Henry averaged 1.31 YPRR and 22% TPRR against man. That compared to 1.69 YPRR and 18% TPRR against zone last season. The Browns have allowed the 7^th highest touchdown rate to TEs (8.3%). Henry has not scored since 4, but I like his chances to find the endzone again in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Anytime TD (+185)

Game Prediction

I love this Patriots team. Going to keep this short. Give me the Pats by 14+

Best Bet: Patriots -6.5 -140
Lean: Brown TT 'U' 19.5 -180
Prediction Browns 10 Patriots 27

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Browns) Harold Fannin +325

Cleveland’s offensive rhythm is built around tight end misdirection and play-action deception. With Njoku sidelined and New England committing bodies to stop Quinshon Judkins between the tackles, Fannin is positioned to exploit the seam soft spot on a crossing route or bootleg leak near the pylon — making him an excellent anytime touchdown candidate at this price.

First TD

Longshot:

Best Bet (Browns) Quinshon Judkins +485

Cleveland’s scripted openers are built for physical tone-setting drives. The Browns have run on 63% of first-quarter plays over their last three games, and Judkins has accounted for every goal-line carry in that span. Expect another methodical opening possession capped by a power run or inside-zone finish from their rookie workhorse.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (Browns) +215
Quinshon Judkins ATD
Dillon Gabriel 'U' 200.5 Pass Yards

Buccaneers Team Overview

QB Baker Mayfield

If you're a fan of the Buccaneers you should be pleading to the NFL to not put Tampa Bay on MNF in week 7 for the '26 season. Last year, in week 7 on MNF, the Bucs lost Chris Godwin to a season-ending injury and Mike Evans reinjured his hamstring, sidelining him for the next four games. This year, in week 7 on MNF, TB lost Mike Evans for what will most likely be the remainder of the regular season, although they are hoping he can return for the playoffs. Now, Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers have to come off the mental anguish of losing their star veteran WR, along with a disappointing 24-9 loss to Detroit and play their second consecutive game road game on a short week. If there's a silver lining, it's that Tampa Bay will get to face a Saints team that is 1-6 on the season. Still, I think this is a very dangerous game for the Bucs, and right now the only thing on starting QB Baker Mayfield's mind is finding a way to pick up a bounceback victory before heading into a much needed bye week. One reason for optimism this Sunday is there's not a more experienced player out there when facing adversity than Mayfield. The Bucs QB has seen and done it all, so there's no since in rehashing all of the obstacles he's overcome throughout not only this season, but his entire career. Baker was under duress all night against the Lions, and was pressured on 52% of his dropbacks. Despite throwing the ball 50 times, the Tampa Bay quarterback completed only 28 of his passes for 228, 1 TD and 1 INT. Fortunately, this should not be the case on Sunday at Louisiana Superdome when he faces a New Orleans team that ranks just 24th in the league in pressure rate (32.4%). The Saints deploy the 3rd highest rate of Cover-3 in the NFL at an astounding 40.8%, but Mayfield has a 95.7% pass rating, averaging 6.7 YPA against this particular defensive scheme. Also, working in Mayfield's favor is that New Orleans is allowing a 68.0% completion rate (10th highest), 7.5 YPPA (9th most) and 7.0% touchdown rate (2nd highest). If your'e looking for more value with Baker Mayfield, the Saints have allowed starting QBs to throw for multiple TDs in 6 of 7 games. Lastly, Baker has historically torched the Saints with his legs. In his last 3 starts vs New Orleans, he's ran for 31,29 and 68 yards. The Saints are giving up the 3rd most rush attempt per game (6.0) and 9th most rushing YPG (24.6) to opposing QBs.

Suggested Bet:

Baker Mayfield 2+ Pass TD (-173) DK

Baker Mayfield 15+ Rush Yards (-116) DK
Baker Mayfield 25+ Rush Yards (+192) DK

RB Rachaad White

With Tampa Bay having a bye in week 9 they are playing it smart in giving him another 2 weeks to fully recover from his injury. This means Rachaad White will make his 4th straight start at RB for the Bucs, and this is his best matchup on paper so far this season. White has logged 41 carries over the last 3 weeks, where he's managed 144 yards (3.5 YPC). These are certainly not numbers that lift off the paper, but it should be noted that he's been dealt 3 difficult matchups against the run in SEA, SF and DET. I would still be careful with Rachaad's rushing props here as the overall injuries to Tampa Bay's offensive line has compromised every RB on the Bucs roster to run effectively, even Bucky Irving. Still, White is getting 75-80% of the backfield touches, and he's also often used in the passing. The Saints have played from behind nearly 90% of the time this season, and in the past month alone, they've allowed high performance games to James Cook (135 yards, TD), Cam Skattebo (104 yards) and D'Andre Swift (138 yards, TD).

Suggested Bet:

Rachaad White 80+ Rush+Rec Yards (-166) FD
Rachaad White 100+ Rush+Rec Yards (+142) FD
Rachaad White 125+ Rush+Rec Yards (+350) FD

WR Emeka Egbuke

Not only did Emeka Egbuka make a surprising return to the field last week, but he did so while playing on 81% of Baker Mayfield's dropbacks. His 4 receptions for 58 yards (24.6% target rate) may not wow anyone, but considering the amount of pressure Baker Mayfield was under last week, this was not a bad overall performance. The explosive rookie WR will now take the field at New Orleans without the services of both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. So far in '25, when Evans and Godwin have not been on the field, Egbuka has been targeted on 28.5% of his routes. It's typical for rookie WRs to have issues against man coverage, and this proved true for Egbuka on MNF where he was targeted 5 times, catching just 1 ball for 18 yards. His other 3 receptions came when the Lions ran zone. Detroit is a man-heavy defense as well, but here is why should be excited about Emeka this Sunday. The Saints run man-coverage at the 7th lowest rate in the entire league (14.9%). This includes a heavy dose of Cover-3 (42.1%) and Cover-4 (19.6%). When facing these coverage schemes, Egbuka leads all TB receivers with a 24.8% target share, 41.5% air yards and 2.60 YPRR. Emeka Egbuka should take full advantage of a New Orleans team who ranks 30th in the NFL, giving up 9.6 YPT to opposing team's #1 WRs.

Suggested Bet:

Emeka Egbuka Anytime TD (-105) DK

Emeka Egbuka 70+ Rec Yards (-136) FD
Emeka Egbuka 90+ Rec Yards (+162) FD
Emeka Egbuka 110+ Rec Yards (+300) FD

TE Cade Otton

Cade Otton is becoming the modern-day version of Zach Ertz. He hauled in 7 balls on a season-high 9 targets for 65 yards on MNF against the Lions. Going forward, we should expect to see continued production out the Bucs TE but he's also not going to be running 52 routes per game like he did against the Lions. Even though we should see an uptick in his overall production, Otton will not sustain these kind of numbers with Emeka Egbuka and a surging Tez Johnson on the field. But, it's still worth noting that in a 4-game span last year where both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were sidelined, the Tampa Bay tight end totaled 30 receptions (39 targets) for 293 yards and 3 TD. He will face a New Orleans defense that allows the 14th most YPT (7.5) and 4th highest TD rate (8.3%) to opposing TEs.

Suggested Bet:

Cade Otton Anytime TD (-105) DK

Cade Otton o39.5 Rec Yards (-113) DK

Saints Team Overview

QB Spencer Rattler

We can only wonder just how long the Spencer Rattler experiment is going to last in New Orleans. Rattler has a record of just 1-13 as starting QB for the Saints. It’s never a good thing when you throw for a season-high 233 yards in week 7. He will go head-to-head with Tampa Bay, who is looking to avenge a road loss on MNF to Detroit. The Bucs rank 6th in both blitz rate (32.4%), as well as pressure rate (41.6%). Surprisingly enough, Rattler has decent numbers when facing pressure, where he’s completed 58.2% of his passes (5th best) for 7.0 YPA (8th best). TB is also allowing 7.7 YPPA (7th most). The Buccaneers have surrendered at least 2+ TD passes to opposing QBs in 6 of 7 games, but Rattler has had issues getting the ball in the end zone all season long. The NO quarterback has thrown multiple TDs only two times this year, and I expect to see Tampa play with a major chip on their shoulder this Sunday as they head into the bye week. Rattler has been way too inconsistent for me to put any faith in his throwing props, but one spot I do like here is his rushing total of 17.5 yards. This is a line that Rattler has surpassed in 8 of his 14 career starts. He’s also cleared this number in 3 of his L4 games, running for 49, 21, 20 and 12 yards. TB blitzes so much under Todd Bowles that it creates running holes for mobile QBs, and Rattler has the ability to use his legs. His 212.5 passing yards total is sneaky low, and I think the books are counting on him to run the ball a lot this Sunday against a Bucs defense that has given up the 7th most rushing yards to opposing QBs (25.4 YPG). Here is one BIG reason why I love this prop. Last year, Rattler faced the Buccaneers twice. In his first game, he ran the ball 4 times for 27 yards, but he had just 1 carry for 11 yards the second time he faced them. But one HUGE tipping point here is that not only is Rattler’s rush attempts line set for 3.5, but it’s heavily juiced at -174! This is one of those great finds that you don’t even intend, it just presents itself. Rattler made 7 starts last season. He threw for over 200+ yards in just 3 of his 7 starts. His two biggest passing outputs came against the Bucs (243 and 240 yards). While it’s not been pretty, Rattler has thrown for 200+ yards in 6 of 7 games to begin the ’25 season. Something clearly is not adding up here, and I think the books are setting a trap line to get betters to take the over on his passing yards, but I’m not falling for it. Take Rattler to run a lot here.

Suggested Bet:

Spencer Rattler o16.5 Rush Yards (-114) FD
Spencer Rattler 25+ Rush Yards (+198) FD
Spencer Rattler 40+ Rush Yards (+640) FD

RB Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara’s production in the Saints offense has gone from trending downward to an all-out freefall. The New Orleans veteran RB has not found the end zone since week 1, and he’s totaled 75 yards from scrimmage just once. Last week, Kamara was nearly invisible as he carried the ball only 11 times for 28 yards. On the flip side, NO lost running back Kendre Miller for the season, so Kamara is expected to handle at least 85% of the backfield touches going forward. If you are thinking about chasing his rush total this week, you’re barking up the wrong tree. Even without the service of starting DT Calijah Kancey, Tampa Bay’s run defense continues to be a gauntlet for opposing RBs. Led by all-pro Vita Vea, the Bucs have a league-best 70% success rate against the run and they’re allowing only 3.9 YPC. Now, with all of that said, and even though Kamara’s usage as a pass-catching back has dropped off significantly in ’25, I still think his receiving props are a very fortuitous spot for betters in week 8. Nobody has allowed more receiving yards to opposing backfields than the Buccaneers (61.6 YPG). Furthermore, Tampa Bay has also given up the 4th most receptions in the league (5.3). It’s also worth noting that in his one game vs the Bucs in ’24 with Spencer Rattler at QB, Kamara was targeted 8 times, where he caught 5 balls for 24 yards.

Suggested Bet:

Alvin Kamara 20+ Rec Yards (-114) FD
Alvin Kamara 30+ Rec Yards (+194) FD
Alvin Kamara 40+ Rec Yards (+360) FD

WR Chris Olave

For Saints WR Chris Olave, volume has not been the issue this season, but his overall production has been in question. With that said, Olave has posted back-to-back games of 6-98-0 and 5-98-2. This can be largely attributed to a massive increase in his usage downfield. Olave averaged just 8.0 air yards per target in the first 5 weeks of the season, but in the last 2 games his air yards skyrocketed to 12.2 and 19.8 air yards per target. Moreover, 35.5% of his targets have come on throws of 20+ yards downfield. This is a 28.1% increase from the 7.4% rate he had prior to week 6. This drastic shift in numbers begs the question, is Kellen Moore all of a sudden using Olave to stretch the field or are the Saints upping his production in order to rise his potential trade value? Spencer Rattler playing the QB position is always going to prevent him in reaching his ceiling, but he's still being targeted on 29.0% of his routes, which is a career-high for Olave. One reason why I like the New Orleans WR this week is because of his volume out of the slot position, where he's lined up for 38.0% of his snaps and has the 3rd most targets (43). This has resulted in Chris Olave having the 5th highest target share among NFL receivers (31.1%). He should remain highly active this week against a Todd Bowles led Buccaneers team who blitzes on 32.4% of their defensive snaps. When facing the blitz, Olave has a whopping 36% target share, while seeing 47.8% of the air yards thrown. Tampa Bay has allowed some big games to opposing #1 WRs this season with a list that includes, Drake London (8-55-0), Garrett Wilson (10-84-1), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (8-132-1), Kendrick Bourne (5-142-0) and most recently, Amon-Ra St. Brown (6-86-1). The Bucs are also coming off a short week, and will be playing on the road for their second straight game. This is a good spot for Olave to be productive.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Olave o20.5 Longest Reception (-110) DK

Chris Olave 6+ Receptions (-132) DK
Chris Olave 7+ Receptions (+136) DK
Chris Olave 8+ Receptions (+241) DK

WR Rashid Shaheed

Rashid Shaheed continues to be consistent, but not in the way we would like. The Saints WR has consistently hauled in 4 receptions every single week this season, but he's gone over 50 yards just twice. The uptick in Chris Olave's usage haven't done him any favors either. 2 of Shaheed's 3 least productive games have come in the last two weeks, where he's posted 4-28-0 (vs NE) and 4-40-0 (@ CHI). The sudden increase in Chris Olave's volume of plays downfield is very suspicious too. He has been rumored in several trade possibilities and I don't think it's any coincidence that Kellen Moore is using him differently all of a sudden. Shaheed to catch 4+ balls is a nice parlay piece, but there's no value in his reception given the Bucs high blitz rate, a scenario where Shaheed is targeted only 18% of the time. When you put all of this together, he is a clear pass for week 8.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

TE Juwan Johnson

Trying to figure out where Juwan Johnson fits in the New Orleans offense has been one of the more difficult questions to figure out. In the first 3 games of the '25 season, the Saints TE caught 19 balls for 176 yards and a TD, then completely disappeared from the offense. The next 3 games saw Johnson catch only 7 passes for 60 total yards. Just when we thought he was being phased out completely, he caught 5 of 7 passes in week 7 for 79 yards with a 22.5% target share. One interesting thing to note is that despite remaining on the field, Juwan Johnson was dealing with an ankle injury so it's quite possible this is what was holding him back. Another intangible that is favorable for Johnson is he does have a 26.3% target share when Spencer Rattler is being blitzed, which ranks 2nd on the team behind only Chris Olave. Last season, Johnson caught 8 of 12 targets for 90 yards to go along with a TD in his one game against Tampa Bay, and this season the Bucs allow the 3rd highest catch rate (84.6%) to opposing TE's. At the same time, the Bucs only allow 6.7 YPT (13th lowest), so his reception total is what has the most value here.

Suggested Bet:

Juwan Johnson 4+ Receptions (-144) FD
Juwan Johnson 5+ Receptions (+152) FD
Juwan Johnson 6+ Receptions (+290) FD

Game Prediction

Both the Bucs and Saints have some exploitable matchups this Sunday that could make this a very excited game to watch from an offensive standpoint. But at the end of the day, head coach Kellen Moore continues to operate New Orleans at a grandmotherly pace on offense. Tampa Bay is coming off a short week and that is the reason we have 4.5 point spread in this game. It's important for the Buccaneers to come out and put points on the board early in order to have the Saints playing on their heels. New Orleans has trailed for 88.3% of their offensive snaps this season!! If they can limit TB's points early the Bucs could be in real trouble. Both teams know each very well playing in the NFC South. I believe this game is going to be WAY closer than what Tampa wants, but remember it's Baker Mayfield vs Spencer Rattler and in the end I think they win this one and head into a much needed week 9 bye with a 6-2 record.

Best Bet: Saints +4.5 -115
Lean: Under 46.5 -114
Prediction Buccaneers 23 Saints 20

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Bucs): Emeka Egbuka -105 DK

Emeka Eguka returned to the Bucs lineup and despite facing a heavy dose of man-coverage, he still caught 4 balls for 58 yards. It wasn't is best performance of the season, but Baker Mayfield was under pressure all night vs Detroit. This Sunday, Egubka faces a Saints team that plays zone-coverage at an 85.1% clip and they rank just 24th in pressure rate. This has all the makings of a big game for Egbuka. The Bucs are looking to right the ship, and Mayfield is going to look the rookie's way early and often in New Orleans.

Best Play (Saints): Alvin Kamara +135 DK

I know Alvin Kamara has not scored a touchdown since week 1, but with Kendre Miller out for the season, the New Orleans RB has the entire backfield to himself. He has the ability to score in both the rushing and receiving game, and the Bucs allow the most receiving yards (61.6 YPG), 4th most receptions (5.3) and 8th most YPC (11.8) to opposing tailbacks.

First TD Picks

Longshot (Saints): Juwan Johnson +1700 DK

I really like Juwan Johnson as a longshot for the first TD in week 8. Johnson woke up from his golden slumber last week, catching 5 of 7 targets for 79 yards. He runs a route on 83% of his dropbacks, while maintaining a 20% target share. The Saints have been less effective on the ground inside the red zone, and without Kendre Miller, Alvin Kamara has just one TD on 13 red zone carries. Tampa Bay has allowed 4 touchdowns to opposing TEs (4th most).

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (Buccaneers): Best Play +262 DK

Baker Mayfield 2+ Pass TD

Rachaad White 80+ Rush+Rec Yards

Emeka Egbuka 70+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #1 (Saints): Best Play +295 FD

Spencer Rattler 15+ Rush Yards

Alvin Kamara 20+ Receiving Yards

Chris Olave 5+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Buccaneers): Longshot +2700 DK

Baker Mayfield 3+ Pass TD

Baker Mayfield 15+ Rush Yards

Rachaad White 100+ Rush+Rec Yards

Emeka Egbuka 100+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (Saints): Longshot +2639 FD

Spencer Rattler 30+ Rush Yards

Alvin Kamara 30+ Receiving Yards

Chris Olave 6+ Receptions

Chris Olave 20+ Yard Reception

Titans Team Overview

QB Cam Ward
Despite a season stat line of 136 completions of 236 attemps (57.6%) for 1,356 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, Ward has shown significant improvement in his last two outings, posting completion rates of 68.5% and 74%. This surge is likely attributed to a simplified offensive scheme following the departure of former head coach Brian Callahan, allowing Ward to operate with greater comfort and efficiency. Looking at the matchup, the Indianapolis Colts offer a favorable environment for Ward's passing game. They are currently surrendering the third-most passing yards per game (273.5) and the 14th-highest completion rate (66.2%). While their passer rating allowed is a more respectable 88.4 (21st highest), the overall weakness in their pass defense bodes well for Ward. The Colts utilize man coverage on 27.7% of plays, primarily Cover 1 and Cover 3. Given a projected negative game script that should encourage more passing attempts from Tennessee, and Ward's recent success in a streamlined offense, backing his overs seems like the more valuable play here, despite his struggles. Furthermore, Ward's remarkably low 0.8% turnover-worthy throw rate - thanks to his preference of taking sacks over forcing throws - makes for an interesting option at a good plus money price this week.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 202.5 Passing Yards (-110)
‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions (+155)

RB Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard continues to be a very middling option on a bad offense. On the season, Pollard has rushed 98 times for 380 yards (3.9 YPC) and 2 touchdowns, adding 17 receptions for 122 yards. His advanced metrics among 35 qualified running backs aren’t particularly good, with a 3.88 YPC (26th) and a low 2.0% explosive run rate (31st). Last week's performance saw Pollard with just 6 carries for 18 yards, though he was more involved in the passing game with 6 catches for 43 yards. This increased involvement as a receiver could be something to monitor, especially with quarterback Cam Ward consistently under pressure. With the new offensive minds, having quick passes to the backs can help take pressure off a struggling offensive line. The matchup against the Indianapolis Colts' defense is challenging for ground production. The Colts have been stingy against opposing backfields, allowing the third-fewest touches per game (21.5) and the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game (90.3). While they concede a 4.21 yards per carry, their overall defensive strength against the run is a concern. The Titans continue to utilize a near-even split in carries between Pollard and Tyjae Spears, limiting Pollard's volume. In this tough matchup where we expect TEN to be trailing early, it’s tough to back Pollard here. However, if his involvement in the passing game continues to increase due to Ward's pressure, his receiving props are no longer a straight fade. He is also a guy I’m definitely not looking to back for a touchdown this week.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 11.5 Carries (-140)

RB Tyjae Spears
Spears, like Pollard, faces a tough matchup on the ground this week. On the season, Spears has logged 14 carries for 67 yards (4.79 YPC) with no touchdowns, and has added 7 receptions for 37 yards since coming off the IR. His advanced metrics highlight efficiency on the ground, particularly in zone concepts where he boasts a 71.4% success rate, despite not yet having an explosive run of 15+ yards. Like his backfield counterpart Tony Pollard, Spears has often found limited room to run. Last week, Spears saw 5 carries for 22 yards and 3 catches for 18 yards. With a projected negative game script for the Titans, there's an expectation that Tennessee will be forced to throw more, which could benefit Spears' involvement as a pass-catcher. While the Colts' run defense is stout, they are also average in terms of allowing targets to opposing running backs, ranking 16th with a 16.2% target rate. This suggests that while there might be opportunities for Spears in the passing game, it's not a guaranteed volume boost against a defense that isn't particularly susceptible to running back targets. Considering Spears' efficiency in zone runs and the potential for a pass-heavy game script, Spears’ rushing and receiving are intriguing given how low the rushing number is. However, given the Colts' stingy run defense and the shared backfield touches, betting on his rushing yardage might be less appealing. I’ll lean over on the R+R, but I don’t love it.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 36.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110) - LEAN

WR Elic Ayomanor
On the season, Ayomanor has caught 19 of 39 targets (48.7%) for 225 yards and 2 touchdowns. Last week, even with teammate Ridley sidelined, Ayomanor garnered 5 targets but only managed 2 catches for 29 yards, struggling to take advantage of the opportunity. Instead he saw fellow wide receivers, Van Jefferson and Chimere Dike, step up. His advanced metrics show a 15.7% target share and an 11.84 yards per reception, but a modest 2.89 yards after catch per reception. He primarily lines up out wide (89.5%), with a smaller percentage from the slot (10.5%). The matchup against the Indianapolis Colts offers a mixed bag. The Colts allow the 11th-highest out-wide receiving yards per game (114.0) and the 4th-highest passer rating (118.0) when targeted. They also allow the 30th-highest target per route run (0.23), suggesting that receivers can find opportunities against them. Notably, in Week 3, Ayomanor did find some success against this same Colts defense, recording 4 catches for 38 yards and a touchdown while Ridley was active. However, the overriding concern is the overall inconsistency and lack of trust in Ayomanor within the current Titans offense, particularly with quarterback Cam Ward. Despite leading the team in routes run on 97.5% of dropbacks last week, his production remained minimal. With him being on the field a ton and some repertoire with Ward, it’s not a spot to fade Elic with low lines and no Ridley.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Van Jefferson
While his season stats are modest – 12 catches on 14 targets (85.7%) for 140 yards and 0 touchdowns – his involvement saw a notable uptick last week with Calvin Ridley being out. In that game, Jefferson secured all 4 of his targets for 41 yards. Jefferson primarily operates out wide (90.8%) with a small percentage from the slot (9.2%). His advanced metrics for the season include a low 5.9% target share and 9.1% air yardage share. However, his impressive 108.3 passer rating when targeted suggests that when the ball does come his way, it often results in positive outcomes. The key factor here is the potential for continued increased involvement, especially if Ridley remains out. Last week's performance hints that Jefferson could step into a more significant role. While the overall Titans passing game has its struggles, they should find themselves throwing the ball plenty and if Ward can complete more passes, they should be able to sustain more drives. It’s over or pass for me.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - LEAN

WR Chimere Dike
Chimere Dike continues to be a really interesting player and passes the eye test if you’ve watched him. Dike's ascent on the depth chart, culminating in him taking over as the primary slot receiver after Tyler Lockett's departure, is a significant development. On the season, Dike has 13 catches on 21 targets (61.9%) for 96 yards and 1 touchdown, but his role should only grow in a lost season. His performance last week was a bit of a breakout, as he hauled in 4 catches for an impressive 70 yards and a touchdown. Dike operates predominantly from the slot (74.2%), with some snaps out wide (24.2%). His advanced metrics include an 8.9% target share, 7.38 yards per reception, and a solid 3.85 yards after catch per reception, suggesting efficiency when he gets the ball. The matchup against the Indianapolis Colts is promising for Dike. The Colts are particularly vulnerable to slot receivers, allowing the second-most receiving yards to the slot per game (99.6). Furthermore, they concede the 14th-highest catch rate (71.3%) and the 12th-highest first-read rate (80.5%) to receivers. This is a spot I really like Dike to clear his receiving total. The coaches have really made it a point to get him involved and we should see a heavy pass script here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
On the season, Okonkwo has been efficient when targeted, catching 23 of 32 passes (71.8%) for 218 yards, though he has yet to find the endzone. His advanced metrics show a solid 9.5 yards per reception and an impressive 6.7 yards after the catch per reception, highlighting his ability to create plays once he has the ball. He splits his alignment between inline (40.6%), slot (47.6%), and wide (10.4%). The significant concern for Okonkwo backers is his complete lack of production last week, where he registered 0 catches on 2 targets. This disappearing act is worrying, especially for a player with such a strong catch rate historically. However, the matchup against the Indianapolis Colts is almost too good to ignore for a tight end. The Colts are generous to opposing tight ends, allowing the 7th most receptions per game (6.29), the 7th most targets (8.29), and the 2nd most receiving yards per game (71.9) to the position. This defensive weakness along with the primary WR being out, can present an opportunity for Chig this week. The Colts rank 12th in pass rush grading, which could force Cam to get the ball out quickly. However with the involvement of Helm, the rookie, and Chig’s lack of production it’s under or pass for me.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-140)

Colts Team Overview

QB Daniel Jones
On the season, Jones has been highly efficient, completing 152 of 214 passes (71.0%) for 1,790 yards, 10 touchdowns, and only 3 interceptions, complemented by 29 carries for 83 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. Last week was another strong outing, with 23 completions on 34 attempts for 288 yards and 2 passing touchdowns, without an interception, plus 5 carries for 7 yards. His advanced metrics are impressive, including an 8.36 yards per attempt, a 105.9 passer rating, and an elite 2.6% sack rate. Notably, he ranks 4th in completion rate (71.0%), 6th in yards per game (255.7), and first in 1st read percentage (78.5%) among qualified quarterbacks. The matchup against the Tennessee Titans is exceptionally juicy for Jones. The Titans are allowing the highest completion rate in the league (73.3%) and the 7th highest yards per pass attempt (7.6), indicating a clear vulnerability through the air. Jones has already found success against this defense in Week 3, going 18 for 25 for 228 yards and a touchdown. The Titans primarily run zone coverage (6th highest rate at 79.1%), mainly Cover 3 and 4, which Jones has shown he can dissect. Jones has thrown for 2+ touchdowns in three consecutive games, demonstrating a consistent ability to convert redzone opportunities. While the Colts do have the lowest dropback rate in the league (44.8%), which might lead to a run-heavy script later in the game, Jones's efficiency and the Titans' defensive weakness suggest that first-half overs on his passing yards and touchdowns might be the better option. Given how this game script is likely to unfold, I’d be looking first half or under interceptions.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions (-145)

RB Jonathan Taylor
He is currently having an elite season, leading the league with 131 carries for 697 yards (5.3 YPC) and an impressive 10 rushing touchdowns. He's also been effective in the passing game, catching 23 of 25 targets for 185 yards and another touchdown. Last week was a dominant performance, with 16 carries for 94 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 38 yards. His advanced metrics are equally outstanding, ranking 4th in YPC (5.32), 5th in explosive run rate (6.9%), and 4th in yards after contact per attempt (3.15) among qualified running backs. The matchup against the Tennessee Titans is nothing short of phenomenal for Taylor. The Titans have been historically porous against the run, allowing the most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season (10). Compounding this, Taylor ranks 8th in yards after contact per carry, and the Titans allow the 3rd most yards after contact per rush, indicating a clear weakness that perfectly aligns with Taylor's strengths. He already gashed this same Titans defense in Week 3 for 17 carries, 102 yards, and a remarkable three touchdowns. The potential absence of star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons for the Titans makes this exceptional matchup even better. You’d be a brave man to test an under here, but it won’t be me.

Suggested Picks
2+ Touchdowns (+140)
2nd Half Touchdown (-125)
'O' 15.5 Receiving Yards (-140)

WR Michael Pittman Jr.
On the season, Pittman has been highly efficient and a consistent target, catching 35 of 47 passes (74.4%) for 351 yards and 5 touchdowns. Last week, he continued this trend with 7 catches for 58 yards on 9 targets, including a touchdown. Pittman primarily aligns out wide (70.7%) but also sees significant action from the slot (27.0%). His advanced metrics are excellent, boasting a 21.2% target share and 21.2% air yardage share, indicating he is a focal point of the Colts' passing attack. He averages 10.03 yards per reception and generates 3.97 yards after catch per reception, along with an impressive 124.5 passer rating when targeted. The matchup against the Tennessee Titans is favorable. The Titans' top cornerback, L'Jarius Sneed, has been ruled out for this game. This significantly weakens an already susceptible Titans secondary, setting up an even better matchup for Pittman. Even with the expected return of teammate Josh Downs, Pittman's role and target share remain. Last week, without Downs, Pittman commanded a dominant 28.1% target share. He already found success against the Titans in Week 3, recording 6 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown, even with Sneed on the field. As long as the Colts' offensive game plan involves passing the ball, Pittman is in line for another productive outing.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Josh Downs
On the season, Downs has been highly efficient, catching 26 of 34 targets (76.4%) for 217 yards and a touchdown. He sat out last week due to a concussion but has logged a full practice on Thursday, indicating he should be good to go for this game. Downs primarily operates from the slot (80.5%), with a smaller percentage of snaps out wide (19.5%). His advanced metrics are solid, including an 18.0% target share and 14.4% of the team's receiving yards. He averages 8.35 yards per reception and has a 104.2 passer rating when targeted. The matchup against the Tennessee Titans is advantageous for a slot receiver like Downs. The Titans allow the 21st most receiving yards to the slot (59.9 yards per game), but more importantly, they concede the 3rd highest catch rate (80%) and the 14th highest first-read rate (80%) to slot receivers. This indicates that Downs should have ample opportunities to be targeted and successfully secure catches, especially with Daniel Jones's high 1st read percentage. Given his high catch rate, his role as a primary slot option, and the Titans' defensive weaknesses against slot receivers, Josh Downs is in a prime position to exceed his receiving props. Specifically, I'll be looking at his receptions in hopes that IND passes enough to get him there in a good matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-110)

TE Tyler Warren
On the season, Warren has been efficient, catching 33 of 45 targets (73.3%) for 439 yards and 3 touchdowns. Last week, he continued to be a productive option, hauling in 4 catches for 69 yards on 5 targets, including a touchdown. Warren's versatility in alignment (inline 42.3%, slot 39.6%, out wide 14.9%) makes him a flexible piece for the Colts' offense. His advanced metrics are excellent, boasting 13.3 yards per reception, an impressive 7.8 yards after the catch per reception, and a robust 126.1 passer rating when targeted. The matchup against the Tennessee Titans for tight ends is somewhat mixed. While the Titans allow the 23rd most targets (6.86) and 19th most receptions (5.29) to tight ends per game, they are quite stingy in terms of yards allowed, ranking 8th fewest with just 42.0 yards per game to the position. This suggests that while Warren might get targets, breaking out for massive yardage could be a challenge. A key factor for Warren is the Colts' tendency to run away with games, which could be the case here. This often leads to a more run-heavy game script in the second half, which significantly impacts Warren's target share. He averages 4.4 targets per game in the first half (3rd among tight ends) but only 2.0 targets per game in the second half. Given the matchup and propensity to run with a lead, this is a rare spot where I’ll fade Warren.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Game Prediction

How do the Titans hang in this game? I just don't seen it, but 14.5 is A LOT of points regardless of how bad a team is. If the Colts want to, I think they'll be able to run all over the Titans given the matchup and injuries. The question really comes down to how productive we think the TEN offense will be. They will be without Rildey again, but have shown "some" strides the last couple weeks with a simplified offense for Ward and company. TEN's team total sits at 15.5, which they have cleared in 3 of 7 games this season. IND has cleared their team total (30.5) in each of this last three games and against this TEN team in week 3. That's where I'm headed in this matchup.

Best Bet: Colts Team Total o30.5 (-110)
Lean: TEN Titans +14.5
Prediction IND 34 - TEN 21

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Colts) Michael Pittman +180
Pittman already has 5 touchdowns on the season already, including a TD against this same defense in week 3. No Sneed makes this matchup for Pittman even better and he leads this team with 8 redzone targets this season. Giddy up.

Longshot (Titans) Chimere Dike +470
I can't talk enough about Dike in this section each and every week and last week we finally cashed him for 1st TD. He should be a big part of this offense and has a solid matchup out of the slot. With his involvement in the rushing game and return game, we get even more valuable touches from him.

1st TD

Best Bet (Colts) Jonathan Taylor +250
Can you get mor chalky than this? With a -300 touchdown prop at some books, there is still some value here. The Titans have only scored the first touchdown once this season and Taylor ran all over TEN in their last matchup this season. Every metric point to a monster Taylor day and without Simmons up the middle is looks even juicier.

Longshot (Titans) Gunnar Helm +3500
As mentioned, TEN has only scored the first touchdown once this season... As a reminder, it's already week 8! If we are dipping into this market for TEN, it might as well be a longshot. Helm has started to cut into Chig's snaps the last few weeks and has garnered two redzone targets over the last two, whih is more than Okonkwo (1). No Ridley gives us so many options for a TEN score, so let's cash a fun one this week.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (Colts): +328
IND Colts -9.5
Jonathan Taylor 2+ Touchdowns
Jonathan Taylor 15+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (Titans): +378
Cam Ward o206.5 Passing Yards
Chimere Dike 2+ Receptions
Tony Pollard u41.5 Rushing Yards
TEN Titans +21.5

Parlay #3: +1976
IND Colts -13.5
Cam Ward 225+ Passing Yards
Jonathan Taylor 3+ Touchodwns

Cowboys Team Overview

QB Dak Prescott

Dak and the Cowboys have been one of the league's most prolific offences in the entire NFL, and that only picked up last week with CeeDee Lamb returning. But this week will be his biggest challenge yet, against a Denver defence that excels at limiting QB production. The Broncos allow the 3rd fewest completions (17.7), 9th fewest passing yards (208.7), and just 1.0 passing touchdown per game — tied for 2nd fewest in the league. They also contain QBs mobility well, surrendering only 8.1 rushing yards per game to the position, 4th fewest in the league. Defensively, Denver leans heavily on man coverage, running it a league-high 42.6% of the time. They mix in the 2nd most Cover 0 (6.8%) and 3rd most Cover 1 (32.8%), often relying on pressure and tight coverage to disrupt opposing QBs. Prescott has seen the 4th most dropbacks against man coverage (87). He’s completed 63.8% of his passes in those situations — 14th best — while ranking 4th in passing yards per game (84) and 14th in yards per attempt (7.35) and a 104.6 QBR against the coverage. Against Cover 0, though, Prescott has been far less effective. On 10 dropbacks, he’s completed just 50% of his throws for a minimal 2.8 yards per attempt. Cover 1 has been more of a comfort zone for Prescott. On 58 dropbacks, he’s completing 68% of passes with a strong 7.93 yards per attempt and a 90.7 QBR. Still, Denver’s combination of man-heavy defence, low scoring allowance, and limited passing volume makes this a challenging spot. However, this Denver defence has allowed Jalen Hurts and Jaxson Dart to throw for over 280 yards in two of the last three weeks. So there's a lane for Dak to have another good week.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott 250+ Passing Yards (-130)

RB Javonte Williams

It's a true revenge game for Javonte, facing the team that gave up on him last year and let him walk in free agency for nothing to the Dallas Cowboys. He's been making other teams pay; can he make his former team pay this week? The Broncos allow the 12th fewest rush attempts (20.1) and 13th fewest rushing yards (82.9) per game. They're pretty good at limiting opponents on the ground, and volume through the air, allowing the fewest receptions (3.0) per game to opposing RBs, but have allowed significant gains, as the Broncos give up the 10th most receiving yards (38.6) per game. Denver’s front leans heavily on man/gap concepts (47.1%), the 3rd highest rate in the NFL, and that’s where their defence becomes vulnerable. They allow 4.55 yards per carry against man/gap runs, over a full yard more than their 3.49 yards per carry allowed against zone concepts. Fortunately for Williams, this aligns perfectly with his strengths. He’s been far more effective against man/gap this season, averaging an impressive 6.08 yards per carry — a mark that demonstrates how well his downhill, contact-heavy style fits these blocking looks. His ability to break tackles and generate yards after contact could be key in softening Denver’s defensive front. Teams typically give their players an opportunity to get back at their former team, and the matchup suits Javonte well to get his revenge.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams o61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Javonte Williams 80+ Rushing Yards (+215)

WR CeeDee Lamb

Lamb came back like he didn't miss any time, catching five of his seven targets for 110 receiving yards – a feat he's hit in every healthy game he's played this season. However, this week poses as his biggest test against the Broncos defence, who have been one of the stingiest defences this season, allowing the 11th fewest receptions (10.9) and the 5th fewest receiving yards (117.4) per game to opposing WRs. Lamb has lined up 69.1% of his snaps out wide this year. Against outside receivers, they’ve surrendered the lowest catch rate (55.6%), fewest receiving yards per game (72.9), and lowest yards per route run (1.44) — though they do give up chunk gains, ranking third highest in yards per reception (11.3). Lamb has remained a high-usage player versus man coverage, commanding a massive 35.6% target share. Against man, he’s caught 8 of 13 targets for 97 yards on 43 routes, and while his usage is elite, several of his efficiency metrics drop compared to his zone splits. His catch rate (62.5%), yards per reception (13.6), yards after catch per reception (3.7), and yards per route run (3.02) all dip slightly when defences go man-to-man. Lamb has been productive against Cover 1, catching 6 of 10 targets for 82 yards on 30 routes, but he’s yet to make an impact against Cover 0, seeing only one target all season. Lamb is fantastic, don't get me wrong. However, so is PS2. To put it into perspective, Surtain has allowed just six receptions on 15 targets for 52 receiving yards over the last four weeks. And he wasn't against slouches either – Ja'Marr Chase, AJ Brown and Garrett Wilson.

Suggested pick:

CeeDee Lamb u75.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR George Pickens

We all knew that Pickens likely wasn't going to see double-digit targest with Lamb back in the mix; however, he was still able to put up his usual 80+ receiving yards on just four receptions. This week, may not be as easy against the Broncos man-heavy defence. Against man coverage, Pickens has caught 15 of 23 targets for 268 yards on 83 routes. He’s been most effective against Cover 1, where he’s hauled in 13 of 21 targets for 245 yards on 56 routes this season. However, Pickens has yet to convert any of his four targets against Cover 0 into receptions. While he owns a strong 24% target share and generates 6.2 yards after the catch per reception against man, his catch rate (65%), yards per reception (16.8), and aDoT (11.7) all dip slightly compared to zone coverage. Pickens has lined up out wide on 88.3% of snaps this year — but that aligns with a tougher matchup for Pickens, given how good the Broncos are to outside receivers. However, with Surtain projected to shadow Lamb, and the Broncos allowing the highest aDoT (9.8) this season, Pickens should connect with Dak on a deep ball – something he has done in five straight weeks.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens o23.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Jake Ferguson

Well, we were kind of right about Lamb being back affecting Ferguson's workload. He still saw heavy volume, catching all seven of his targets, but that amounted to just 29 receiving yards. This week, Ferguson gets the Broncos, who allow the 5th fewest receptions (3.9) and the 15th most receiving yards (52.7) per game to opposing TEs. With the Broncos being a man-heavy team, Ferguson has caught 15 of his 18 targets for 73 receiving yards on his 68 routes against man coverage. Most of that work has come versus Cover 1, where he’s recorded 10 receptions on 13 targets for 27 yards on 46 routes, while his lone target against Cover 0 went for just one yard. His 80% catch rate against man coverage remains solid, but he’s averaging only 4.9 yards per reception and 0.88 yards per route run, both notable dips from his efficiency against zone looks. His target share also falls from 31.1% in zone to 23.4% against man, underscoring how much he depends on defensive coverage tendencies for volume. With CeeDee Lamb back in full usage last week, Ferguson lined up inline on 57.6% of his routes — a shift that could impact his involvement against Denver. The Broncos have been targeted at the inline position at the 11th lowest rate (23), while allowing the 4th lowest catch rate (60.9%). The volume is eventually going to start to dip with Lamb back in the mix, and this matchup might be the perfect time to fade one of the best TEs in the league this season.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson u5.5 Receptions (-145)

Broncos Team Overview

QB Bo Nix

Bo Nix might be the best fourth-quarter QB the league has ever seen. He might need more of that magic this week against the Cowboys. Dallas allows the 8th most completions (23.4) and 11th most pass attempts (34), the 2nd most passing yards (276.9) and 3rd most passing touchdowns (2.3) per game to opposing QBs. They also give up the 2nd most rushing yards (31.7) to QBs, leaving some potential for Nix to make plays with his legs. Dallas is one of the most zone-heavy teams in the NFL, running it on 80.3% of snaps (2nd most). They primarily mix Cover 2 (26.3%) and Cover 3 (35.4%), which are the 3rd and 6th highest, respectively. That could present problems for Nix, who’s struggled against zone coverage this season. On 209 dropbacks versus zone (the 3rd most in the league), he completes just 63% of his passes (5th lowest), 5.72 yards per attempt (3rd lowest), and a 79.3 QBR (10th lowest) among 37 qualifying QBs. Cover 2 has been particularly troublesome for Nix. On those looks, Nix has posted the 2nd lowest completion percentage (60.6%), 3rd lowest yards per attempt (5.12), and an equally concerning 61.3 QBR. Cover 3 has offered only slightly better results, with Nix facing the coverage 94 times (2nd most of any QB), but he’s still averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt with a 79.6 QBR, both ranking near the bottom third of the league. One would typically be licking their chops when facing off against the Cowboys, but this projects to be a difficult matchup for Nix with how he struggles against zone coverage. However, we still think he'll use his arm and legs often.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix o33.5 Pass Attempts (-115)

Bo Nix 20+ Rushing Yards (-155)

RB JK Dobbins

J.K. Dobbins enters a favourable matchup against a Dallas defence that allows the 9th most rush attempts (22.4) and rushing yards (103.4) per game. But it's not just on the ground they struggled, as the Cowboys allow the 3rd most receptions (5.4) and 2nd most receiving yards (53.9) per game through the air to opposing RBs. The Cowboys send out a near-even split between zone (41.2%) and man/gap (37.4%) run concepts. However, they’ve been far less effective in stopping man/gap runs, allowing 4.94 yards per carry compared to 4.14 against zone. That said, Dobbins has been at his best against zone concepts this season, averaging an impressive 6.18 yards per carry. So while Dobbins should still have success on the ground, it might be another lower volume outing, especially if the game gets out of hand and the Broncos are forced to throw the ball to compete with the high-flying Cowboys defence.

Suggested Pick:

JK Dobbins u15.5 Rush Attempts (-115)

WR Courtland Sutton

As we predicted, Sutton bounced back with another game of over 80 receiving yards. This week, he gets the Cowboys defence, who allow the 13th most receptions (10.9) and the 4th most receiving yards (168.9) per game to opposing wideouts. Dallas primarily deploys zone looks (80.3%, 2nd most in NFL), and that plays into Sutton’s usage patterns this season. Against zone coverage, he’s been reliable and productive, posting 23 receptions on 32 targets for 320 receiving yards across 169 routes. He’s found success in both of Dallas’s preferred zone shells — with 3 receptions for 48 yards on 4 targets against Cover 2, and 13 receptions for 138 yards on 19 targets against Cover 3 in 2025. While Sutton has shown a slightly higher catch rate (70%) and deeper average depth of target (13.7) against man coverage, his overall efficiency has been better against zone coverage — particularly in yards per reception (13.8), yards after catch per reception (6.4), and yards per route run (2.42). Sutton lines up out wide on 78.5% of his snaps, which is where the Cowboys are most vulnerable. Against outside receivers, Dallas has allowed the highest aDoT (15.0), the 5th highest catch rate (69.6%), and the league's worst 126.9 receiving yards per game. They also give up the 3rd highest yards per route run (2.54) and the 2nd highest yards per reception (16.2). If the books are going to continue giving us these respectful lines for Sutton, we'll keep taking them, especially against this weak Cowboys pass defence.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton 60+ Receiving Yards (-120)

Courtland Sutton 80+ Receiving Yards (+200)

WR Troy Franklin

In something that rarely happens, Sutton did not earn the highest target share; that was Franklin. Now, he only turned his 10 targets to just three receptions for just 19 receiving yards. This week, he gets Dallas' heavy zone coverage schemes. Franklin has held his own against zone looks this season, recording 16 receptions on 28 targets for 193 receiving yards on 148 routes. He’s been especially effective against Cover 3, producing 7 receptions for 125 yards on 13 targets. Against Cover 2, he’s been quieter, catching 2 receptions for 22 yards on 4 targets across 23 routes in 2025. Statistically, Franklin’s game complements the Cowboys’ defensive tendencies. He owns a higher catch rate (69.2%), yards per reception (12), yards after catch per reception (5.2), and yards per route run (1.52) when facing zone coverage. Franklin has lined up in the slot on 56.9% of his snaps. The Cowboys have struggled somewhat against slot receivers, allowing the 10th highest catch rate (72.7%) and the 15th highest yards per reception, even if they’re targeted at the 8th lowest rate overall. If Franklin gets another 10 targets, I'd be shocked if he doesn't corral at least four of them, especially considering he hasn't in three straight weeks. However, we're a little worried about the blowout factor, and Marvin Mims could potentially be a factor with his deep ball ability against this brutal Dallas defence.

Suggested pick:

Pass

TE Evan Engram

While the yards may not be there for Engram, his volume is super encouraging. That marks the fourth straight weeks where Engram has finished with at least five targets and four receptions; however, he hasn't surpassed the 50 receiving yards mark. This week, he gets the Cowboys defence who allow the 6.0 receptions per game to tight ends (8th most) and 54.1 receiving yards per game (14th most). Engram has been efficient against zone coverage this season, catching 17 of 23 targets for 121 yards on 86 routes. He’s been particularly strong against Cover 3, where he’s produced eight receptions for 71 yards on nine targets. Against Cover 2, he’s been less involved but still efficient, going 1-for-2 for 10 yards across 13 routes. Engram’s usage trends also support steady involvement here. He’s earned a 23.5% target share versus zone, his highest by coverage type, while posting 1.41 yards per route run. Though his catch rate dips slightly to 75% and his yards per reception (8.0) and yards after catch per reception (4.9) are a bit lower than against man coverage, he remains a dependable zone-beater for Nix. Engram runs 42.9% of his routes inline, where Dallas has been highly targeted — allowing the highest rate of targets (37) to inline receivers. The Cowboys also give up an 83.8% catch rate (13th highest) and hold opponents to 8.39 yards per reception (10th lowest), suggesting a high-volume, short-yardage outlook for Engram. He did it for us last week, now he gets a better matchup for TEs against Cowboys inline receivers.

Suggested pick:

Evan Engram o3.5 Receptions (-140)

Game Prediction

Cowboys and Broncos should be a fantastic match. One of the league's most efficient offences against one of the league's best defences. Which one will prevail? Well, while the Broncos have been a great defence, they have allowed points to great offences: 33 against the Giants, 23 against the Chargers and 29 against the Colts. The Cowboys average the second most points for (31.7) per game this season. And as a Broncos fans, it's tough to say this, but Nix hasn't been great this season. Do the Cowboys have a bad defence? Yes. But I don't think the Broncos can keep getting away with these fourth-quarter comebacks week in and week out. We like the Cowboys to come into Denver and snag a road victory in a high scoring game.

Best Bet: o51
Lean: Cowboys ML
Prediction: Dallas 31 - Denver 24

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Cowboys): Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+190)

Ferguson has been a TD machine lately. Over the last four weeks, Ferguson has scored six TDs, including a pair of scores last week against the Commanders last week. Dak had just one end zone target last week, and it went to Ferguson for six. Even with Lamb back, Ferguson tied him for the most first-reads from Dak.

Best Pick: (Broncos): Marvin Mims TD (+230)

Mims hasn't scored in three weeks, but with the Cowboys allowing a lot of success to opposing WRs, especially with the deep ball, as they allow the highest aDoT in the league, Mims has a strong chance to find paydirt. Franklin still outsnaps him, but Mims saw his highest snap share since Week 1 last week, passing the 50% threshold. The Cowboys are allowing the most receiving TDs to WRs per game (1.7) this season.

Longshot:

Best Pick: (Cowboys) George Pickens First TD (+1200)

While Dak and Lamb still showed their chemistry, Dak's first look in the end zone will be toward the person he's most familiar with this season, especially on the first drive. Pickens has six TDs through the previous six weeks and is second behind Davante Adams with 13 end zone targets. The Broncos are a tough matchup, though, allowing the lowest TDs per game to WRs (0.14).

Best Pick: (Broncos) JK Dobbins First TD (+550)

Dobbins has now gone three of his last four without finding the end zone after scoring in his first three games as a Bronco. One of his four TDs has been the Broncos' first, but they were not the first of the game.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay 1: (Cowboys) +225 odds on bet365

Javonte Williams 60+ Rushing Yards

George Pickens o23.5 Longest Reception

Parlay 2: (Broncos) +275 odds on bet365

Bo Nix 20+ Rushing Yards

Courtland Sutton 60+ Receiving Yards

Evan Engram 3+ Receptions

Parlay 3: (Cowboys/Broncos Longshot) +1000 odds on bet365

Javonte Williams 80+ Rushing Yards

Courtland Sutton 80+ Receiving Yards

Total Over 47.5

Packers Team Overview

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love has been operating in a conservative but efficient rhythm-based system, with production capped by volume rather than ability. Through seven weeks, he’s attempted 31 or fewer passes in 13 of his last 14 games, yet he ranks fifth in yards per attempt (8.17) and eighth in passer rating (108.1). He’s shown subtle mobility, averaging 18.3 rushing yards per game, using zone-read and rollout action to stress edge defenders. Against Arizona, he completed 19-of-29 for 179 yards (6.2 YPA) and a touchdown — his fourth game under 200 passing yards this season, but one that underscored his controlled accuracy in the intermediate zones. This week, he faces a Pittsburgh defense that disguises leverage pre-snap but ranks near the bottom in back-end execution. The Steelers deploy man coverage on 32.7% of defensive snaps (7th-highest) and zone on 63.6% (25th), mixing press-man on early downs with soft shell coverages on third. Love has been markedly more efficient against man coverage — 7.52 YPA and a 106.7 passer rating across 58 dropbacks — as his anticipation and timing windows open up with clear one-on-one matchups. Pittsburgh’s defense allows the most passing yards per game (282.3) and has surrendered multiple touchdown passes in four of its last five games. Love’s deep ball accuracy (56% on throws of 20+ yards) matches up well with Pittsburgh’s secondary that has been repeatedly burned by double moves and intermediate posts. Expect Matt LaFleur to script early play-action concepts attacking the second level. Pittsburgh’s secondary has allowed a 7.5% passing TD rate at home this season and gives up chunk plays off play-action. With Jacobs demanding respect downhill, Love is in position to capitalize on mismatches against man coverage looks inside the 20.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs’ reintroduction to Green Bay’s offense has restored their red-zone power identity. He’s coming off a two-touchdown performance on 13 carries for 55 yards (4.2 YPC), his third straight game with at least one score. Since joining the Packers, Jacobs has accounted for 57% of carries, 36% of routes, and every goal-line rushing attempt when active. His vision and burst in the 5-to-10-yard range have quietly rebalanced this offense after a slow start to the season. Pittsburgh’s run defense has been inconsistent — elite against zone schemes, but porous when stretched horizontally. The Steelers give up the eighth-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.21) and 11th-most rushing yards per game (97.5), due to poor pursuit angles and a tendency for linebackers to overcommit on misdirection. Green Bay’s wide-zone attack is built to exploit that, with Jacobs ranking top five among active backs in forced missed tackles per rush. The Steelers’ front allows 4.6 yards per carry off left tackle, an area where Green Bay has generated 48% of its rushing touchdowns this season. With LaFleur using motion-heavy sets to widen gaps, Jacobs’ short-area burst makes him the clear focal point of early scoring drives. Jacobs has scored in 15 of his last 17 games and remains the first read on goal-line sets. Against a defense that has allowed a rushing score in five straight contests, he’s the most reliable path to Green Bay’s opening points.

Suggested Bet:

Anytime Touchdown (-165)

WR Romeo Doubs

Romeo Doubs has become the most reliable perimeter weapon for Jordan Love, leading the team in both target share (28%) and red-zone looks. He caught 6 passes for 72 yards last week and continues to dominate single coverage matchups with precise vertical stems and sideline discipline. Against man coverage, Doubs averages 1.89 yards per route run and draws a target on 23% of routes, which directly matches Pittsburgh’s defensive weakness. The Steelers’ secondary plays 32.7% man coverage (7th-highest) but lacks top-end recovery speed on the outside. They’ve allowed the most receiving yards per game (137.5) and rank 14th in yards per route allowed (1.98) to wide receivers lined up out wide. Doubs, who’s running over 80% of his routes from perimeter alignments, will likely see frequent matchups with Levi Wallace, who’s given up a 72% catch rate and three touchdowns in man situations this year. Expect Doubs to feature early on vertical outs and back-shoulder fades — routes Love has been highly efficient on when facing single-high rotations. Pittsburgh’s secondary is bleeding yardage to boundary receivers, and Doubs’ chemistry with Love on isolation routes makes him the most likely beneficiary of those coverage lapses.

Suggested Bet:

'O' 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Matthew Golden

Matthew Golden is quietly carving out a dependable slot presence but comes into this matchup looking for a bounce-back after managing just 37 yards in Week 7. Prior to that, he had posted three straight games over 60 yards. Golden’s release package and short-area separation give him value against blitz-heavy units, and the Steelers blitz on 31% of opponent dropbacks (6th-highest), often leaving soft spots behind linebackers. Against man coverage, Golden has been remarkably efficient — 2.44 yards per route run and a .19 targets per route rate on 36 routes — and his zone splits (1.51 YPRR on 106 routes) remain steady thanks to his ability to work the seams. Pittsburgh’s coverage mix of 63.6% zone and 32.7% man tends to leave nickel defenders exposed when safeties rotate late, which is precisely where Golden does his best work on option and stick routes. With the Steelers ranking 11th in receiving yards allowed to slot receivers (77.8 per game), Golden is positioned for a steady volume resurgence, particularly on third downs. Expect Love to use Golden as his pressure valve against Pittsburgh’s disguised blitz packages, generating high-percentage completions in the short middle of the field.

Suggested Bet:

'O' 4.5 Receptions (+120)

TE Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft has turned into a legitimate mismatch weapon for Green Bay, producing over 50 receiving yards in four of his last five games. He’s commanded a 31% target share in Week 7 and ran a route on 79% of dropbacks, showing a strong connection with Love on intermediate crossers. Against man coverage, Kraft ranks among the league’s most efficient tight ends — 2.59 yards per route run and .30 targets per route run across 46 routes. Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled to contain tight ends all season, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards (67.2) and eighth-most receptions per game (6.0) to the position. The Steelers’ frequent Cover 1 calls isolate linebackers in man coverage, which Green Bay can exploit through motion and stack formations. Kraft’s athleticism and straight-line burst make him a nightmare against slower second-level defenders, especially on play-action rollouts. Given his increased red-zone usage (five targets inside the 10 over the last three weeks) and the Steelers’ issues defending tight ends on crossing concepts, Kraft projects as the top scoring threat outside of Jacobs. Pittsburgh has given up touchdowns to tight ends in three straight games, and Kraft’s route rate combined with his growing red-zone target share makes him a high-value scoring option.

Suggested Bet:

Anytime Touchdown (+240)

Steelers Team Overview

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is averaging 211.7 passing yards per game, 7.38 YPA and a 68.6% completion rate. He’s thrown 14 TDs and 5 interceptions. He’ll face a Packers defense that ranks 12^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 18^th most passing yards per game (212). Green Bay has blitzed at the 5^th lowest rate (19.9%) but have applied pressure at the 10^th highest rate (41.7%). When blitzed, Rodgers is averaging 7.09 YPA and a 59.6% completion rate. That compares to 7.50 YPA and 72% completion rate when not blitzed. From a schematic perspective, the Packers top 3 coverages are Cover 3 (35%), Cover 2 (20.3%) and Cover 1 (18%). Rodgers averages 7.51 YPA and a 64.4% completion rate against these 3 coverages. Rodgers likely had this game circled as the long-time Packers franchise QB. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him show out on Sunday night football.

Suggested Pick:

Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-110)

RB Jaylen Warren

On the season, Warren is averaging 62.2 rushing yards per game on 4.44 YPC. Last week, he accounted for 16 of 19 rush attempts and his snap rate was 66.7%. He ran for 127 rushing yards and caught 4 of 5 targets for 31 yards. That was against a weak Bengals run defense, that is not the case for the Packers. Green Bay is 5^th best in EPA/Rush allowed and they have allowed the 4^th fewest YPC (3.53). I don’t expect him to have as much success on the ground here, as that was the first game he’s gone over 52 rushing yards. In the receiving game, warren has ran a route on 34.4% of drop backs. He’s averaging 36.8 receiving yards per game, 3.29 YPRR and 34% TPRR. The Packers are ranked 6^th best in EPA/Pass allowed to the backfield. They are however allowing the 2^nd most receptions to RB despite allowing the 10^th fewest receiving yards. I’ll target his receptions and might even play it 1Q once that opens.

Suggested Pick:

Over 2.5 Receptions (-173)

Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

4+ Receptions (+138)

WR DK Metcalf

Dk is averaging 67.7 receiving yards per game, 2.49 YPRR and 23% TPRR. He’s first on the team in 1^st-read rate at 28.6%. DK has lined up out wide on 77.3% of his routes. The Packers are allowing the 6^th fewest YPRR (1.73) to wide alignment but rank 7^th worst in terms of EPA/Pass to wide targets. From a schematic perspective, the Packers top 3 coverages are Cover 3 (35%), Cover 2 (20.3%) and Cover 1 (18%). Against these 3 coverages, DK averages 2.99 YPRR, 28% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 34.7%. Green Bay primarily runs zone coverage (75.9% rate). Against zone, DK averages 3.52 YPRR, 28% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 32.5%. That compares to 0.93 YPRR, 15% TPRR and 21.6% 1^st-read rate against man. DK has seen a redzone target in 5 straight games but ended his TD streak at 4 after not scoring last week. I expect Rodgers to have success against his former team and like DK to find the endzone again this week.

Suggested Pick:

Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Anytime TD (+160)

WR Calvin Austin

Calvin Austin is set to return after missing the past 2 weeks with a shoulder injury. During his limited time, He’s averaging 1.51 YPRR and 17% TPRR. He’s 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 18.7%. He’s lined up out wide 52.2% of the time and in the slot on 45.7% of his routes. The Packers are allowing the 6^th fewest YPRR (1.73) to wide alignment and the 4^th fewest (1.38) to the slot. However, they rank 7^th worst in terms of EPA/Pass to wide alignment and 10^th worst to the slot. From a schematic perspective, the Packers top 3 coverages are Cover 3 (35%), Cover 2 (20.3%) and Cover 1 (18%). Against these 3 coverages, Austin averages 1.31 YPRR, 20% TPRR and 20.4% 1^st-read rate. Green Bay primarily runs zone coverage (75.9% rate). Against zone coverage, Austin averages 1.48 YPRR and 16% TPRR. That compares to 1.65 YPRR and 21% TPRR against man.

Suggested Pick:

Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Jonnu Smith/Pat Freiermuth

Jonnu Smith has run a route on 60.6% of dropbacks, averaging 19.5 receiving yards per game, 1.03 YPRR and 22% TPRR. Freiermuth has run a route on 49.5% of dropbacks, averaging 31.2 receiving yards per game, 2.01 YPRR and 18% TPRR. Most of Pat’s success came last week, with a 111 receiving yard performance, so these numbers feel a little skewed. Pittsburgh has also run Darnell Washington out there at times, so it’s tough to predict who will produce any given week. They’ll face a Packers defenese that has allowed the 10^th most receiving yards, the most receptions and the 3^rd most touchdowns to opposing TEs. From a schematic perspective, the Packers top 3 coverages are Cover 3 (35%), Cover 2 (20.3%) and Cover 1 (18%). Against these 3 coverages, Freiermuth has been most productive. He’s averaging 3.02 YPRR and 24% TPRR. That compares to Jonnu’s 0.73 YPRR and 20% TPRR.

Suggested Pick:

Pat Freiermuth Anytime Touchdown (+425)

Game Prediction

I trust this Packers team way more. I think its a low scoring grind it out type of game. Give me the Packers ML and the Under

Best Bet: Packers -2.5 -120
Lean: Under 45.5 -120
Prediction Packers 17 Steelers 20

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Packers): Tucker Kraft +240

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +160

DK has seen a redzone target in 5 straight games but ended his TD streak at 4 after not scoring last week. I expect Rodgers to have success against his former team and like DK to find the endzone again this week. DK has positive splits against the Packers zone heavy defense that primarily runs Cover 3, Cover 2 and Cover 1.

First TD

Longshot:

Best Bet (Packers) Tucker Kraft +840

Pittsburgh’s single-high man fronts are vulnerable to tight end crossers and delayed leaks near the goal line. With Green Bay’s offense heavily using play-action and Kraft dominating red-zone routes, he’s the best value first-score option in this matchup — particularly if the Packers receive the opening kickoff.

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +1000

Same analysis as anytime TD. It’s only right that the first touchdown on Sunday Night Football is Rodgers to his top WR against his former team.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (Packers)

Josh Jacobs ATD

Romeo Doubs 'O' 52.5 Receiving Yards

Tucker Kraft +255

Parlay #2 (Steelers) +650

Aaron Rodgers Over 219.5 Passing Yards

Jaylen Warren 4+ Receptions

Jaylen Warren Under 56.5 Rushing Yards

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