Jets Team Overview

QB Justin Fields

Fields started the season hot, completing 16 of his 22 attempts for 218 passing yards and a touchdown pass. He rushed 12 times for 48 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Week 2 against Buffalo was rough prior to his concussion. He completed just 3 of 11 passes for 27 yards. He did rush 5 times for 49 yards. He’ll return Monday night and look to get back on track against a Dolphins defense that is ranked dead last in EPA/Pass allowed. They have allowed 8.94 YPA and a 78.8% completion rate, 3^rd and 1^st worst respectively. In the rushing game, they allowed Daniel Jones to rush 7 times for 26 yards and 2 touchdowns and Maye to rush 10 times for 31 yards and a touchdown. Josh Allen rushed for 25 yards against them, but his legs weren’t needed in this game script, with only 4 attempts. Miami has blitzed at the 2^nd highest rate (40%) but has allowed pressure at the 3^rd lowest rate (26.3%). This is a smash spot for Fields both in the passing and rushing game.

Suggested Pick:

Over 230.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-110)

Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

60+ Rushing Yards (+210)

70+ Rushing Yards (+350)

Anytime Touchdown (+175)

RB Breece Hall

After rushing 19 times for 107 yards in week 1, Breece is averaging just 25 rushing yards per game o 2.63 YPC in weeks 2 and 3. He’s been productive in the receiving game 2 out of 3 weeks. He’s averaging 4.3 targets per game, 2.7 receptions and 26 receiving yards. Breece has 38 rush attempts to 14 from Braelon Allen, so he’s still getting the bulk of the workload. However, Allen had 3 touches to Hall’s 1 inside the 10 last week. He also leads the RBs in route rate at 35.9%. This is a great matchup for Breece to get back on track as the Dolphins rank 3^rd worst in EPA/Rush allowed and the Jets are just 2.5-point underdogs. They were 6 and 6.5-point underdogs the previous 2 weeks. The Dolphins have also been weak against running backs in the receiving game, allowing the 4^th most yards and ranking 3^rd worst in EPA/Pass allowed when the backfield is targeted. The Dolphins rank 6^th highest in two-high frequency (58.9%) this season after ranking 6^th highest last season as well. Hall averaged 1.22 YPRR and 20% TPRR against two-high last season, compared to 1.72 YPRR and 25% TPRR against single-high. A similar negative split has continued this season. I would still target Breece as a potential boom candidate this week.

Suggested Pick:

Over 82.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115)

100+ Rush + Receiving Yards (+180)

WR Garrett Wilson

Through 3 weeks, Wilson is averaging 76.3 receiving yards per game, 2.34 YPRR and has been targeted on 29% of his routes. He leads the league in 1^st-read rate at 46.9%. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Pass allowed through 3 weeks. Miami has blitzed at the 2^nd highest rate (40%) but has allowed pressure at the 3^rd lowest rate (26.3%). When the defense is unable to pressure the QB, Wilson is averaging 2.80 YPRR and has been targeted on 36% of his routes. The Dolphins rank 6^th highest in two-high frequency (58.9%) this season after ranking 6^th highest last season as well. Wilson is averaging 2.94 YPRR and has been targeted on 35% of his routes against two-high this season. This is a small sample size however, as he had negative splits against two-high in his previous 3 seasons. Wilson has lined up out wide on 55.1% of his routes and in the slot on 44.9%. According to the EPA metric, The Dolphins are ranked 9^th worst against wide alignment and 3^rd worst against the slot. Expecting Wilson to continue to see a ton of volume.

Suggested Pick:

Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Over 5.5 Receptions (+110)

7+ Receptions (+225)

8+ Receptions (+425)

Anytime Touchdown (+155)

WR Josh Reynolds

Reynolds returns to the lineup after missing the previous 2 games to a hamstring injury. In his first week, he ran a route on 92% of Fields’ dropbacks. He caught just 2 of 3 targets for 18 yards. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Pass allowed through 3 weeks. Reynolds lined up almost exclusively out wide, at a 95.7% rate. The Dolphins are ranked 9^th worst against wide alignment receivers according to the EPA metric (small sample size). Garrett Wilson leads the league in 1^st read rate and is essentially the Jets entire passing offense. It’s tough to recommend betting on any other receiver, it’s essentially a dart throw.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

TE Mason Taylor

Through 3 weeks, the Jets rookie tight end has run a route on 71.8% of dropbacks and is averaging just 14.3 receiving yards per game. He has been targeted on just 12% of his routes. He did catch 4 of 6 targets in week 3 with Tyrod as QB, but Fields is back this week. His average depth of target was just 1.8 yards, if you are playing anything I prefer receptions overs to yards. He is getting a lot of playing time, so he could be thrown to more as the season goes on and Fields starts to trust him. But until we see a meaningful contribution, I’ll fade the rookie.

Suggested Pick:

Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Under 11.5 Yard Longest Reception (-110)

Dolphins Team Overview

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Through 3 games this season, Tua is averaging 191.7 passing yards per game, 6.46 YPA and has a 69.7% completion rate. He’s thrown 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. His best game came at home, where he threw for 315 yards and had 2 touchdowns against the Patriots. His home/away splits continue to be glaring. He’s averaged 264.9 yards per game in his last 10 home games, compared to 221.8 on the road. This will be his second start at home. He’ll face a Jets defense that ranks 7^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed through 3 games. However, the Jets have been a run funnel, with the 3^rd lowest pass rate over expected allowed. This is a continued trend from last season, where they had the 4^th lowest pass rate over expected allowed. The Jets have struggled with yards after the catch allowed, allowing the 4^th most this season (430) as well as the 2^nd most over expected (+105). This may be bullish for Tua, who continues to throw the ball near the line of scrimmage, average 6.8 yards depth of target, 7^th least amongst QBs with 50+ dropbacks. The speed of Tyreek and Waddle may be an issue after the catch against the Jets.

Suggested Pick:

Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)

Over 234.5 Passing Yards (-115)

250+ Passing Yards (+120)

275+ Passing Yards (+225)

RB De’Von Achane

Achane is averaging 49 rushing yards per game on 4.9 YPC. He’s averaging 6 receptions and 47 receiving yards in the passing game. Achane has 30 rush attempts to Ollie Gordon’s 12, and has run a route on 73.1% of dropbacks, an elite rate for a running back. Ollie Gordon has operated as the short yardage back, attempting 9 of 11 rushes with 3 or less yards to the first down. Ollie has also stolen both carries inside the 5-yard line. Gordon scored his first touchdown last week. Achane will face a Jets defense that ranks 11^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed. The Jets have also been a run funnel, forcing the 3^rd lowest pass rate over expected. The Jets have been tough against man/gap concept runs, forcing the lowest success rate (21.4%) and the 3^rd fewest YPC (2.04). Only 26.7% of Achane’s rush attempts have been in man/gap concept, a good sign schematically against the Jets strength. In the passing game, the Jets rank 9^th worst against backfield targets in terms of EPA/Pass allowed. Bucky Irving caught 4 of 4 targets for 33 yards against them last week. The Jets have struggled with yards after the catch allowed, allowing the 4^th most this season (430) as well as the 2^nd most over expected (+105). This is bullish for a guy like Achane, who is explosive after the catch. Bullish matchup for Achane in both rushing and receiving, but Ollie Gordon may steal some of his touchdown opportunities.

Suggested Pick:

Over 98.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-112)

WR Tyreek Hill

Tyreek is averaging 66 receiving yards per game, 2.41 YPRR and has been targeted on 28% of his routes. He is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate (25.9%) behind Waddle for the first time in his Dolphins tenure. He has about a 60-40 split between lining up out wide and in the slot. He’ll face a Jets defense that ranks 7^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed. They are especially weak against the slot, ranking dead last, compared to 16^th against wide alignment. This is a home game for the Dolphins, which is important because Tyreek averages 69.3 receiving yards per game in his last 10 home games compared to just 50.6 in his last 10 away. The Jets have pressured the QB at a bottom 7 rate to start the season. Tyreek is averaging 2.98 YPRR and 30% TPRR when the QB is not pressured, compared to 1.19 YPRR and 23% TPRR when the QB is pressured. The Jets played man coverage at 38.9% and 35.2% rates in the first 2 weeks but dialed that back down to 14.1% in week 3. I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Jets scheme this week, especially as the speed of the Dolphins skill players tend to skew defenses towards zone. I’d expect Hill to see more Sauce Gardner than Waddle, and the 2^nd and 3^rd CBs on the Jets do not rank well in coverage grades. I prefer Waddle over Hill.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (+125)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Waddle is averaging 45.7 receiving yards per game, 1.65 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. He’s leading the team in 1^st-read rate (27.6%) for the first time since Tyreek joined the team. Jaylen’s lining up primarily out wide, at a 77.1% rate. He’ll face a Jets defense that ranks 7^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed. They are especially weak against the slot, ranking dead last, compared to 16^th against wide alignment. This is a home game for the Dolphins, which is important because Waddle averages 77.1 receiving yards per game in his last 10 home games compared to just 30.2 in his last 10 away. The Jets have pressured the QB at a bottom 7 rate to start the season. Waddle is averaging 2.45 YPRR and 30% TPRR when the QB is not pressured. He has 0 targets when the QB is pressured this season (27 dropbacks). The Jets played man coverage at 38.9% and 35.2% rates in the first 2 weeks but dialed that back down to 14.1% in week 3. I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Jets scheme this week, especially as the speed of the Dolphins skill players tend to skew defenses towards zone. I’d expect Hill to see more Sauce Gardner than Waddle, and the 2^nd and 3^rd CBs on the Jets do not rank well in coverage grades. I prefer Waddle over Hill.

Suggested Pick:

Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

60+ Receiving Yards (+150)

70+ Receiving Yards (+230)

Over 4.5 Receptions (+104)

Anytime Touchdown (+185)

TE Darren Waller

Waller will make is return to the NFL Monday. Last time we saw Waller was with the Giants, where he averaged 45 receiving yards per game, 1.69 YPRR and was targeted on 22% of his routes. Jonnu Smith was a target favorite for Tua last season, targeted on 28% of his routes. However, Waller has a different game than Jonnu. Jonnu is used as a low aDOT safety target that can rack up yards after the catch. Waller is more of a power slot receiver. It’s hard to know how the Dolphins will use Waller after extended time off, I’d rather pass and see production before any recommendations.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

Game Prediction

I think this game has sneaky shootout potential as both defenses rank towards the bottom of the league. Tua and the Dolphins offense is at home, where they have massive positive splits. Justin Fields returns for the Jets, and I think the dual threat with him and Breece Hall could give this awful Dolphins defense issues. Garrett Wilson has the opportunity to make splash plays as well. The Jets have allowed opponents to score on 54.5% of their drives, 2^nd worst in the league. The Dolphins have allowed opponents to score on 68% of their possession, worst in the league. If these offenses can be competent, we should see a lot of points.

Best Bet: Over 44.5 (-110)
Lean: Jets + 3.5 (-145)
Score Prediction: Jets 24 Dolphins 21

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Justin Fields (Jets) +175

Fields scored 2 rushing touchdowns in his Jets debut, rushing the ball 12 times. In week 2, Fields rushed the ball 5 times and played 62% of the snaps before his concussion. The Jets have the 3^rd highest rush rate over expected, and the new coaching staff wants this to be a dual threat rushing offense. Love the opportunity for Fields to find the end zone against a bad defense.

Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) +125

Hill scored his first touchdown against Buffalo last week. He had 2 redzone targets. I expect this game to be higher scoring than expected, so I like the chances for Tyreek. The Jets have also struggled with yards after the catch allowed, bullish for Tyreek, who can house 1 after the catch at any point with his speed.

1st Touchdown

Garrett Wilson (Jets) +1000

Wilson leads the league in 1^st-read rate, mainly because the Jets don’t have any other receiving threats. Fields played with Wilson at Ohio State, and their connection look solid in that first game, as Wilson had 95 yards and a touchdown. That touchdown week 1 was in the first quarter, look for Fields to find his Wilson early and often.

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) +1000

Waddle has scored a touchdown in back-to-back weeks, and I like him to extend that to 3 straight on Monday night. He has seen a redzone target in every week this season. Both his touchdowns have came in the first half this season, so like the chances for 1^st touchdown scorer.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (+706)

Justin Fields Anytime Touchdown

Garrett Wilson 60+ Receiving Yards

Breece Hall 80+ Rush + Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (+564)

Tua Tagovailoa 250+ Passing Yards

De’Von Achane 100+ Rushing + Receiving Yards

Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown

Bengals Team Overview

QB Jake Browning

In Browning’s first start after the Burrow injury, he threw for just 140 passing yards, 5.19 YPA, a 70.4% completion rate, 1 TD and 2 interceptions. He faced a Vikings defense that ranks 1^st in EPA/Pass allowed. The Vikings applied pressure at a 61.3% rate, highest in week 3. This offensive line has struggled massively; I would expect the Broncos to send a lot of blitzes. They currently have the 3^rd highest blitz rate at 39.2%. Against pressure the past 2 weeks, he’s averaging 3.92 YPA, has a 45.8% completion rate, has thrown 4 interceptions and has been sacked 4 times. Browning will likely be forced to quick short passes again this week. Browning’s average depth of target was just 3.9 yards, 3^rd lowest. The Bengals are 7.5-point underdogs and have an implied total of 18.25-points, hard to see them have much success again this week.

Suggested Pick:

Under 218.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Under 33.5 Longest Completion (-115)

RB Chase Brown

Chase Brown is averaging just 31 rushing yards per game on 1.98 YPC. This offensive line is doing him no favors, as he’s averaging just 0.02 yards before contact per attempt, lowest out of any RB in the league with 25+ attempts. His 1.96 yards after contact per attempt is respectively, ranking 20^th out of qualifying RBs. He’ll find trouble finding any room again this week, playing a Broncos defense that ranks 5^th best in EPA/Rush allowed. They are allowing the T-7^th lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. The one positive for Brown is that his role remains elite. He’s taken 77% of the rush attempts and has run a route on 40.2% of dropbacks. He’s averaging 2.7 receptions for 14.3 yards. He saw his most targets last week with Browning (5), as 1/3^rd of Browning’s pass attempts were thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage. He’ll likely see a lot of targets again this week against the Broncos pressure.

Suggested Pick:

Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

Over 2.5 Receptions (-168)

4+ Receptions (+141)

5+ Receptions (+314)

WR Ja’Marr Chase

In his first 2 games this season, Ja’Marr was averaging 95.5 receiving yards per game, 2.62 YPRR and was targeted on 29% of his routes. He had an elite 1^st-read rate of 42.6%. In Browning’s 1^st start week 3 against the Vikings, Chase ended with 50 receiving yards, averaging 1.85 YPRR and was targeted on 22% of his routes. He remained the top 1^st-read, at 31.3%. The issue was that his average depth of target was just 4.7 yards due to the Vikings pressure. The Broncos have the 2^nd highest rate of man coverage this season (45.6%) after having the 5^th highest frequency last season. Chase saw negative splits against man coverage last season, averaging 1.71 YPRR and 25% TPRR against man, compared to 3.11 YPRR and 26% TPRR against zone. Chase will still have boom weeks, but we must downgrade him with Browning under center. With week 4 another tough matchup, I’m fading Chase.

Suggested Pick:

Under 65.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

WR Tee Higgins

Through 2 games this season, Tee Higgins was averaging 44.5 receiving yards per game, 1.29 YPRR and was targeted on only 17% of his routes. He was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.4%. In Browning’s 1^st start week 3 against the Vikings, Higgins ended with 15 receiving yards, catching 1 of 2 targets. Higgins has run 58 routes with Browning under center, and he’s been targeted on just 12% of his routes. Not encouraging! Tee Higgins has lined up out wide on 86% of his routes this season. The Broncos rank 10^th best in EPA/Pass allowed to wide aligned targets this season. The Broncos have the 2^nd highest rate of man coverage this season (45.6%) after having the 5^th highest frequency last season. Higgins saw negative splits against man last season but was more productive than Chase. He averaged 1.85 YPRR and 27% TPRR against man, compared to 2.15 YPRR and 23% TPRR against zone. Tee Higgins is averaging 57.2 receiving yards per game in the last 6 games without Burrow. Maybe he gets going here, but the usage with Browning this year is discouraging. I’ll take under longest reception as I expect Browning to be pressured all night, the Broncos will force him to make short throws.

Suggested Pick:

Under 20.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115)

TE Mike Gesicki

Week 1 was a TE carousel for the Bengals, as Fant, Gesicki and Sample ran 12, 9 and 10 routes respectively. None of them had a route participation rate over 45%. In week 2, Gesicki led the way with a 62.5% route participation rate. Fant and Sample were down to 20.8% and 14.6% respectively. Despite the increased role, Gesicki caught just 3 of 4 targets for 18 yards. In week 3, Gesicki had a 32.3% route rate, Fant had a 35.5% route rate and Sample had a 35.5% route rate. Sample had the lone touchdown in garbage time, while Fant caught 5 of 5 targets for 26 yards. Each week seems to be different as all 3 have been involved. However, Noah Fant has been ruled out with a concussion. Gesicki and Sample should see increased opportunities as a result. Browning targeted tight ends 11 times in his 1^st start, they were able to catch 8 of them for 52 yards and a touchdown. Gesicki produced in this matchup last year, catching 10 of 12 targets for 86 yards. With Chase and Higgins likely seeing a lot of Surtain on the outside, I’d expect Gesicki to see a higher share of looks in an easier matchup relatively speaking.

Suggested Pick:

Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Over 2.5 Receptions (-130)

Anytime Touchdown (+480)

Broncos Team Overview

QB Bo Nix

The Broncos have been better than their 1-2 record would suggest. However, the problem this year is that Nix hasn't been up to par. He's been fine, but he's just inches away from connecting on some plays, and he's trying a little too much, rather than taking the simple play. Like last week, he had three deep shots that were barely out of his receivers' reach. Hopefully he can fix that up for this week, where he takes on the poor Bengals defence, who allow the 6th most completions (23.7), the 7th most pass attempts (37) and the 8th most passing yards (254.3) per game. The Bengals run the 10th most man coverage, specifically Cover 1 (the 8th most), and also run Cover 6 at the second-highest percentage in the league. Unfortunately, Nix hasn't really been tested much against man coverage, seeing just 14 dropbacks (3rd fewest) among starting QBs, nor Cover 6 (three dropbacks). So, let's look into last season. Against man coverage last year, Nix faced the 12th most dropbacks and the 18th highest yards per attempt (7.04). Against Cover 6, Nix saw the 2nd most dropbacks (71), where he ranked 10th in completion percentage (75.8%), but the second fewest yards per attempt (5.8) among QBs to see at least 35 dropbacks to the coverage. This indicates that when he battles this coverage, he tends to attack the short area of the field more. Nix has just one game over 200 passing yards, but against this poor defence, which has allowed Flacco (290) and Lawrence (271) to obliterate those numbers, Nix should finally have a night where he goes off.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix o224.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB JK Dobbins

So far this season, Dobbins has completely dominated the RB snaps and touches. Last week, Dobbins saw 70.8% of the snaps to Harvey's 27.1%. At this point of the year, it's clearly Dobbins' backfield, so we're just going to dive into him this week. Dobbins had 11 of the 13 RB rush attempts, taking those for 83 yards against what was a tough Chargers rush defence. This week, Dobbins faces the Bengals' rush defence, which allows the 3rd most rush attempts (24.7) and the 6th most rushing yards (110.63). Cincinnati runs most of the rushing snaps in a zone concept, which allows for a higher yards per carry (4.98). This is fantastic news for Dobbins, as he sees a drastic increase in his yards per carry against zone concept, averaging 6.67 yards per carry compared to 3.86 against man/gap. If the Broncos are to get out to an early lead and dominate through the air, they should spend the majority of the second half running with Dobbins.

Suggested Pick:

JK Dobbins o64.5 Rush Yards (-110)

WR Courtland Sutton

After a down Week 2, Sutton exploded for six catches and 118 receiving yards and a TD in Week 3. Cincinnati allows the 12th most receptions (12.7) and the 14th most receiving yards (151.3) to opposing WRs per game. Looking into Sutton's man coverage stats, considering the Bengals run the coverage at the 11th highest rate, Sutton actually does not have a single catch against the coverage. He has run 12 routes against man and has three targets, but has not been able to bring one in. This is odd considering last season, he was the Broncos' highest PFF-graded WR against man coverage, catching 68.3% of his 41 targets for 410 receiving yards and six TDs. Against Cover 6 last season, Sutton ran the 10th most routes (57), the 3rd most targets (15), and the 13th most receiving yards (110). Sutton was clearly Nix's favourite target against man coverage and Cover 6 last year, so don't expect that to change this week.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton o64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Courtland Sutton 80+ Receiving Yards (+160)

WR Troy Franklin

After a big Week 2, Franklin disappointed with just two receptions on three targets for eight receiving yards. However, it's clear that Franklin is the Broncos' WR2, as he played 81.3% of the snaps – tied for the team lead with Sutton – in Week 3, whereas Mims saw just 45.8%. Against man coverage this season, Franklin has caught all four of his targets, taking those for 22 receiving yards and one TD. However, against Cover 6, Franklin has not seen a target. Franklin lines up in the slot on 70% of his routes and will often draw the Daxton Hill matchup. Hill's coming off a good week, only allowing two receptions on eight receiving yards, but that was in a blowout against the Vikings. So far this season, Hill has allowed an 81% catch rate and 44.7 receiving yards per game. Franklin should see enough volume this week to bounce back. He has 4+ receptions in two of the three weeks this season.

Suggested pick:

Troy Franklin o3.5 Receptions (-135)

TE Evan Engram

Evan Engram returns after missing one week. However, Nix has not put an emphasis on targeting the TE position. Even in his absence, Nix had an 8% target share between both Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull. The Bengals are a good matchup for TEs, allowing the 7th most receptions (6.3) and the 8th most receiving yards (59.3) to the position. When healthy, Engram ran 42.9% of his routes in line. To in line receivers, the Bengals allow the 15th highest catch rate (81.8%) and the 12th most receiving yards (27.7) per game. He doesn't instill that much belief given his first two weeks, but if he's ever going to have a good week, it should be against a weak Bengals defence.

Suggested pick:

Evan Engram o2.5 Receptions (+135)

Game Prediction

The Broncos come into this game 1-2 and they face the Eagles on the road next week so this is virtually a must win game here. Now the Bengals come into this one 2-1 and they had little to no life last week in their first game without Joe Burrow. The Broncos will pressure Browning all day and on throws -3/\5 yards aDOT Denver allowed 7.0 YPR last year which was the 5th FEWEST. Give me the Broncos in a route and I lean under.

Best Bet Broncos -6.5
Lean Under 44.5 -120
Score Prediction Bengals 13 Broncos 27

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Broncos): Courtland Sutton TD (+130)

Sutton has scored in two of the Broncos' three games this season, accounting for 50% of the team's WR TDs. This season, Sutton has just two of the six red zone targets, with Franklin having all of the other four. However, Sutton has the bigger frame preferred for a fade in the corner of the end zone against the shorter Bengals CBs – all three of their regular starters are under 6'1". Cincinnati has allowed a WR TD in two of three weeks this season.

Mike Gesicki (Bengals) +480

Noah Fant being ruled out with a concussion opens up more route participation for Gesicki. Sample caught the lone touchdown from Browning in his first start last week, and TEs in aggregate were targeted 11 times. With Surtain guarding Chase and Higgins on the outside, I think the matchup for Gesicki is better, relatively speaking. He’s seen 3 redzone targets so far this year.

1st Touchdown

Best Pick: (Broncos) Evan Engram First TD (+2000)

If we're to dip our toes into the Engram water this week, these are terrific odds for him to score first. Engram was the runaway TE1 when he was healthy, even though the snap share won't show that, as he left both games early with an injury. If they want to get Engram going in this offence, now that he's returning from injury, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them target the 6'3" TE in the red zone early.

Mike Gesicki (Bengals) +3,000

Same analysis as above, expecting a higher route rate for Gesicki with Fant ruled out. I expect the Bengals offense to struggle, but at +3,000, this feels like a ton of value for the Bengals top tight end!

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay 1: (Broncos) +310 odds on bet365

Denver Broncos -2.5

Bo Nix 225+ Passing Yards

Courtland Sutton 80+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: (Bengals) +1534 on Fanduel

Jake Browning Under 219.5 Passing Yards

Mike Gesicki Over 23.5 Receiving Yards

Mike Gesicki Anytime Touchdown

Seahawks Team Overview

QB Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold couldn’t ask for a better setup than this week against Arizona. The Cardinals rank 31st in overall pressure rate (25.3%) and only bring the blitz on 20% of dropbacks, one of the lowest rates in the league. That’s a major issue because when they don’t blitz, their pressure rate plummets to 20.0%—second worst in the NFL. The problem for Arizona is that blitzing Darnold is also dangerous: in 2024, he’s been lethal against extra rushers, posting a 118.1 QB rating (#2 of 40) and 10.07 YPA (#1), and he’s continued that success into this season at 11.33 YPA. When not blitzed, Darnold has still been efficient, ranking #7 in clean-pocket QB rating (107.5), while Seattle’s line has allowed pressure on just 18% of non-blitz dropbacks—the lowest rate of any team. On top of the structural issues, Arizona’s defense has also been a pass funnel through three weeks, giving up the second-most passing yards (826) to a trio of middling QBs: Spencer Rattler (214), Bryce Young (328), and Mac Jones (284). All signs point to Darnold being positioned for another strong outing, with the Cardinals stuck between a blitz approach he thrives against or a passive rush that leaves him clean to attack downfield.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 217.5 Passing Yards (-117)
250+ Passing Yards (+170)
275+ Passing Yards (+320)

RB Kenneth Walker III
With Zach Charbonnet sidelined for the second straight week, Kenneth Walker III once again carries the load in Seattle’s backfield. His volume is secure, but efficiency has been hit-or-miss—last week he managed just 38 yards on 26 carries, though he salvaged the day with two short rushing touchdowns before sitting the fourth quarter in a blowout. On the season, Walker is averaging 4.2 yards per carry behind Seattle’s 16th-ranked run-blocking unit, and his explosiveness remains intact as he ranks 7th among qualified RBs with a 7.7% explosive run rate. Still, he’s only averaging 54.3 rush yards per game, and this week’s matchup against Arizona projects as one of his toughest. The Cardinals have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (76.3), the 10th-lowest yards per carry (3.75), and they rank 3rd in stuff rate (52.5%), consistently clogging lanes at the line of scrimmage. Scheme-wise, Arizona has been far stingier against zone runs (3.09 YPC, 38.2% success rate) compared to man/gap concepts (4.47 YPC, 47.5% success), and Walker’s own splits mirror that—he’s been more efficient attacking man/gap looks (4.41 YPC, 58.8% success rate) than zone (4.00 YPC, 45.5%). If Seattle’s line can open gaps in man-blocking schemes, Walker has a path to chunk plays, but overall this profiles as a low-efficiency, touchdown-dependent spot.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 14.5 Carries (-140)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Through three weeks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has established himself as one of the most productive and heavily utilized wideouts in the league, leading all WRs in target rate (37.7%) while ranking 3rd in receptions per game. He’s not just commanding volume, he’s turning it into big production—posting 107.7 receiving yards per game (2nd among WRs with 10+ catches), paired with 14.68 yards per reception and a healthy 12.1 aDOT. What’s even more impressive is how he’s thrived outside after being used almost exclusively in the slot early in his career. On the perimeter this year, his efficiency has spiked across the board: 16.7 aDOT compared to 4.5 in the slot, 5.29 yards per route run compared to 3.56, and nearly triple the yards per reception (19.92 vs 7.11). This week’s matchup sets up well, as Arizona has allowed the most receptions per game to opposing WRs and leans heavily on Cover 3 and Cover 4. While JSN has been solid against Cover 3 (14.0 aDOT, 15.17 YPR), he’s been downright dominant against Cover 4, owning a massive 104.4% air yardage share, 82.2% team yardage share, and a 75% first-read rate. With his usage, efficiency, and matchup all aligning, Smith-Njigba looks poised for another strong performance in Week 4.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (-120)
8+ Receptions (+143)

WR Cooper Kupp
Cooper Kupp has quietly put together a solid start to the season, settling in as the clear WR2 behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Seattle’s passing game. Through three weeks, he owns a 17% target share, averaging 4.3 targets and 45.3 receiving yards per game. True to form, he’s operating primarily out of the slot—lining up inside about 50% of the time, the highest rate on the team. His role has been more possession-based than vertical, reflected in a modest 7.5 aDOT and 2.19 yards per route run. The matchup against Arizona presents some interesting dynamics: while the Cardinals have been stingy against slot receivers in efficiency metrics—allowing the lowest yards per route run, the 13th-lowest aDOT (7.5), the 6th-lowest yards per reception (8.26), and the 2nd-lowest yards after catch per reception (2.82)—they’ve somehow still surrendered the 3rd-most total yards per game to the slot position. Kupp has been a bit less efficient than his teammates, with Seattle’s lowest passer rating when targeted (78.3) and the team’s only recorded drop, but his usage and role in the offense continue to provide opportunity. With sportsbooks still hanging low receiving lines around 39.5 yards, the value points toward the over in what should be a favorable environment for volume against a defense that bends, even if it doesn’t often break, versus slot production.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-135)

TE A.J. Barner
A.J. Barner has yet to make a meaningful impact in Seattle’s passing game, continuing a trend of limited production through three weeks. His stat lines tell the story: week 1 saw just 1 catch on 2 targets for 0 yards, week 2 was slightly better with 2 catches for 26 yards and a touchdown, and week 3 brought a lone 23-yard grab on his only target. Despite ranking 4th on the team in total targets (6) and logging the 3rd most passing snaps, his role is constrained by alignment, as he lines up in-line on 84.8% of plays—limiting his chances as a downfield threat. That’s reinforced by his shallow 5.8 aDOT, which keeps his ceiling low even in favorable matchups. While he has managed 2 red zone targets, converting one for a score, the consistency simply isn’t there. Opposing tight ends haven’t found much success against Arizona either, with Jake Tonges (2 for 21) and Tommy Tremble (3 for 20) both held in check after Juwan Johnson’s 8 for 76 outlier performance in Week 1. Barner doesn’t profile as the type of receiver who can replicate Johnson’s usage, leaving his betting lines largely unattractive. With volume limited and efficiency capped by role, the under on his props looks like the more appealing side, even in what could be a pass-heavy game script.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 17.5 Receiving Yards (-115) - LEAN

Cardinals Team Overview

QB Kyler Murray

We’re just 3 weeks into the season, and the only word to sum up Arizona’s offensive approach thus far is “grandmotherly.” At just 33.1 seconds per snap, Jonathan Gannon’s team plays the slowest pace in the entire league, but you would too if your team scored a TD on just 18.5% of its drives. The NFL gifted the Cardinals (2-1) a pair of wins vs New Orleans (20-13) and Carolina (27-22) to begin the season, and they lost 16-15 in their first road game of ’25 last Sunday in San Francisco. Playing within a very conservative system, Kyler Murray is 60 of 89 (67.4% CMP) for 542 yards with 4 TD and 1 INT. If you’re expecting ARI to open up the offense tonight on TNF you’ve come to the wrong place. This is because the Cardinals will face a Seattle team who has allowed the 3rd fewest points in the NFL and a league-low 1.36 points per drive through the first 3 games of the season. The Seahawks D-line isn’t a juggernaut, but they do rank in the middle of the pack with a pressure rate of 36.6%. One of the main reasons they allow so few points is because the SEA front four has the ability to get pressure on the opposing team’s QB without having to rely heavily on the blitz. When they do choose to blitz their pressure-rate goes to 41.4%. On the flip side, Arizona has done a good job of protecting Kyler Murray this season. So far, he’s getting pressured just 27.4% of the time (3rd lowest). The of Seahawks play zone-coverage at a 75.6% rate (13th in NFL) and mix up their coverages nicely between Cover 3 (28.4%), Cover 4 (23.6%), Cover 1 (12.2%), Cover 2 (12.2%) and Cover 6 (11.4%), allowing 1.44 YPRR (19th in NFL). When facing these defensive schemes Murray has a completion rate of 70.7% with 2 TD and 0 INT, and this is because HC Jonathan Gannon does not allow him to take many chances downfield. The consistent winning play for Murray has been with his legs as the Cardinals QB has rushed for 37, 32 and 38 yards over his first 3 games. This is an area of the game ARI has to be successful in if they want to win, however he’s running into a Seahawks defense who in ’24 limited opposing QB’s to just 14.8 rush YPG, and they’ve picked up right where they left off allowing 7.7 rush YPG to begin the season. In two games last year against Seattle, Kyler Murray rushed for just 9 and 16 yards. As I said before, Murray’s legs are his biggest weapon and DC Aden Durde made it a priority to keep him contained last year. I don't see that commitment changing in '25 either.

Suggested Bet:

Kyler Murray u28.5 Rush Yards (-114)

RB Trey Benson

It’s officially the Trey Benson show with James Conner headed to the IR. The second-year RB out of Florida State played 84.0% of the offensive snaps, gobbling up 8 of 10 touches out of the backfield. He also ran a route on 80.0% of Kyler Murray’s dropbacks, and that’s something I’ll come back to. He ended up with 13 touches for 51 yards total by game’s end. Benson played more of an explosive role alongside James Conner, but Seattle is allowing just 3.2 YPC (5th fewest) to opposing RB’s out of the backfield. As a sidebar, the Seahawks are also one of 3 teams left in the NFL who have yet to allow a rushing TD to a running back after week 3. Where Benson has real value is in the passing game. Murray has thrown to RBs on 24% of his passes so far this season, which is the 7th highest rate in the league. A deeper look reveals that when facing the coverage schemes of Cover 3, Cover 4, Cover 1, Cover 2 and Cover 6, the Seahawks are most susceptible to receivers out of the backfield, giving up 2.46 YPRR (4th most). SEA has allowed 17 catches in only 3 games for an average of 12.6 YPR. This is by far the best TNF spot.

Suggested Bet:

Trey Benson o21.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

25+ ALT Receiving Yards (+112)

40+ ALT Receiving Yards (+298)

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

There’s no doubting Marvin Harrison Jr. is a sensational talent, but Arizona’s West Coast style offense is not creating opportunities for him to showcase his talents. Harrison Jr. has not had more than 6 targets in any one game this season. This has yielded him receiving totals of just 44, 27 and 71 yards in three weeks of action. If his first 3 weeks have been frustrating, tonight is likely to be even worse for the second year WR out of Ohio State. This is because Seattle allows a miniscule 1.07 YPRR (2nd fewest) to WR’s lined up in the wideout position, a spot Harrison Jr. finds himself in 74% of the time when facing Cover 3, Cover 4, Cover 1, Cover 2 and Cover 6. Last year, Harrison Jr. posted games of 6-47-0 and 8-49-0 vs the Seahawks. Given the above data, the fact SEA likes to keep everything in front of them and Arizona playing at a pond water pace, I have major reservations in Harrison reaching his receiving yards line on such short rest.

Suggested Bet:

Marvin Harrison Jr. u46.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

WR Michael Wilson

Despite being listed as #2 wide receiver on the Cardinals depth chart, Michael Wilson is seldom used and seldom a factor. The 3rd Rd draft pick out of Stanford has been targeted just 8 times in 3 games, where he’s caught 3 balls for a total of just 21 yards. To be fair, this isn’t all Wilson’s fault in an offense where Marvin Harrison Jr. isn’t maximized. The bottom line is this is all circles back to the lack of trust and confidence Arizona has in Kyler Murray. They simply want him to manage the clock and limit turnovers in order to keep games close, then try to win them late. If you’re looking to throw a dart at the board, Wilson may be your guy. In 2 games vs SEA last season he went for 2-54-0 and 2-57-1. But consider this your warning, he is boom or bust.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

TE Trey McBride

Let’s face it. The Arizona offense is reliant upon massaging the ball up the field slowly using the running game and a very conservative pass approach. This is what makes Trey McBride a consistent bet week after week. Through the first 3 weeks in ’25, he’s been on the field for 94.5% of Kyler Murray’s dropbacks, while getting a 27.4% target share. As irony would have it, opposing TE’s have seen 27.4% of the targets against Seattle (5th most). The Seahawks ranked near the middle of the pack last year in receptions and receiving yards allowed to the tight end position, but that didn’t matter when they played the Cardinals last year. Because SEA plays mostly zone coverage they are willing to give up short plays in order to prevent getting beat on big ones. This was proven last year when McBride was targeted 15 and 14 times against the Seahawks. He recorded games of 12-133-0 and 7-70-0 last year vs Seattle. Within the 5 coverage schemes outlined earlier, the Seahawks have been effective against outside and inline receivers, but they are vulnerable to the slot, and McBride has lined up in this position 52.6% of the time this year. He should see the lion share of targets on TNF. Because of Arizona’s dink and dunk approach, I’m not taking any chances with his yardage, but I love his reception total here.

Suggested Bet:

Trey McBride o6.5 Receptions (-114)

8+ ALT Receptions (+153)

9+ ALT Receptions (+266)

Game Prediction

I think the Seahawks have the edge here. Darnold will have a clean pocket all night but at the same time SEA OC loves to run and drain the clock and control the game. On the other side of the ball this Cardinals team has a tougher task on the offensive end as the Seahawks have been able to get to the QB while not having to send the house. This Cardinals front is good so look for Murray to have a clean pocket as well. Cardinals also love to drain the clock as they play at the slowest pace in the league and take very little chances down the field. Primetime game I think this one is a boring game overall with an exciting finish!

Best Bet: Under 43.5 -115
Lean: Cardinals 'U' 2.5 TD's -160
Score Prediction: Seahawks 20 Cardinals 13

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Cardinals): Trey Benson (+110)

Trey Benson is a perfect size/speed RB. He has yet to find the end zone in ’25 but with James Conner on the IR, Benson is going to be a workhorse for Arizona. He was on the field for 84% of the Cardinals’ snaps last week and is a strong back who can shed tackles. He should get nearly all of the goal line carries, and the Seahawks allow 2.46 YPRR (5th most in NFL) to receivers out of the backfield giving him an advantage and another avenue to find the end zone.

Best Play (Seahawks): Kenneth Walker III
I'm happy to take the lead back here ta plus money without Charbonnet playing on Thursday. He's coming off a two touchdown game and could score on the ground or through the air in this one.

1st Touchdown Picks

Best Play (Seahawks): Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+850)

If you read above, you know I really like JSN this week. The target volume is incredible as he walks into a pass funnel defense. He has one touchdown on the season, but can score in a multitude of ways. 4 of the 5 touchdowns that ARI has given up have been through the air.

Longshot Play (Cardinals): Michael Wilson (+1800)

There’s no doubting Michael Wilson has been much maligned in the Arizona offense, but Kyler Murray does look his way in the end zone. Wilson has caught only 3 of 8 targets this year for 21 yards, but one was for a TD, and one of his 4 touchdown scores in ’24 came against Seattle.

Longshot Play (Seahawks): Tory Holton (+2250)

Had himself a redzone target in week 3 and could be settling in as the number 3 option behind JSN and Kupp. No one else has stepped up and Barner has been more of a pass blocker than catcher so far. Solid value on the rookie out of Colorado State!

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (Cardinals): +108
Trey Benson 15+ Receiving Yards
Trey McBride 6+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Seahawks): +672
Sam Darnold 250+ Passing Yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 8+ Receptions
Kenneth Walker III Touchdown

Vikings Team Overview

QB Carson Wentz

It was a heck of a Vikings debut for Wentz, but it was mostly due to their defence, which forced six turnovers (2 INTs and 4 fumbles). However, Wentz still had a good game, completing 14 of 20 passes for 173 passing yards and two PTDs. This week, he gets a Steelers defence, which hasn't been up to the same level of dominance they've shown in the past. Pittsburgh allows the 10th most completions (22) and the 6th most passing yards (260.3). They also run the 9th most man coverage (31.3%), but that clearly hasn't helped them much. Last week, Wentz faced just six dropbacks against man, going 2/4 for 16 yards. To fully grasp Wentz's performance against man coverage, we must look back to 2022, when he started eight games. Not a great sample size, but better than one week. Wentz completed 57.4% of his passes, but for only 5.59 yards per attempt. Again, not fantastic, but the Steelers are allowing the fifth-highest yards per attempt (8.84). While it's hard to pinpoint the exact Carson Wentz we're going to see after that blowout game last week, he still threw for 173 yards on only 20 attempts. That's good for the fifth-highest yards per attempt (8.65) per game among QBs to start at least one game. Surely he can do a bit better than that in what projects to be a more competitive game against a similar defence this week.

Suggested pick:

Carson Wentz 200+ Passing Yards (-180)

RB Jordan Mason

Wentz wasn't the only one making his Vikings first start, as Mason got the role with Jones on the shelf, and Mason took it and ran with it – pun intended. Mason took his 16 carries for 116 rushing yards, finding the end zone twice. But that was a blowout, and against the Bengals' defence. This week, he faces the Steelers' defence, which allows the 9th most rushing yards (107.7) per game through the first three weeks. The Steelers run majority zone concept rush defence, and are quite good at holding opposing runners, averaging just 3.53 yards per carry (14th fewest in the league). However, where they struggle is against man/gap, where they allow 5.52 yards per carry (6th most in the league). But whatever the Steelers throw at Mason won't matter, as he averages over 5.25 yards per carry against both schemes. With Wentz under centre and no Jones, it should be wheels up for Mason.

Suggested Pick:

Jordan Mason 80+ Rushing Yards (-125)

WR Justin Jefferson

Jefferson has been a bit of a letdown in 2025, but his QB play hasn't been its best. However, last week, Jefferson had five receptions on seven targets for 75 yards, despite playing just 80% of the snaps, rather than the 100% he's accustomed to. So, we can expect a bit more out of Jefferson with an upgraded passer in Wentz. The Steelers are allowing the sixth most receptions (13.3) and the 13th most receiving yards (154) per game to opposing WRs. Pittsburgh also runs the 9th most man coverage, which might not be great for Jefferson, as he has just three receptions on seven targets for 40 receiving yards. But you can't really just blame poor QB play on that, because in 2024, Jefferson caught just 15 of his 34 targets – although he had a 24.4 yards per reception rate. Leading into that, the Steelers have allowed opposing WRs to go over their longest reception in all three games this season (Wilson 33, Smith-Njigba 43, Boutte 20). And while Jefferson actually saw his aDoT decline with Wentz (14.0 with McCarthy and 6.7 with Wentz), he was still able to finish with a longest reception of 36 yards. With the Steelers allowing the sixth-highest yards per reception (11.8) – and that goes up to 13.05 against man coverage – Jefferson should corral a long ball in this matchup.

Suggested pick:

Justin Jefferson o23.5 Longest Reception (-120)

WR Jordan Addison

Addison is finished serving his three-game suspension and is healthy and ready to make his 2025 debut, which is so needed as Adam Thielen was not getting it done on the opposite side of Jefferson. Last season, Addison caught 63 of his 92 targets for 875 receiving yards. Against man coverage, Addison caught 10 of 19 targets for 109 receiving yards. However, in man coverage against outside WRs – which Addison ran 80% of his routes from in 2024 – the Steelers allow the 5th most receiving yards. Having Addison, a threatening option opposite Jefferson, back on the field, will open everything up more for the entire offence, and I believe he'll be used often, despite not having the chemistry developed yet with Wentz. Regardless, this line is too low for Addison. He saw 40+ receiving yards in nine of 15 games, averaging 58.3 receiving yards per game.

Suggested pick:

Jordan Addison o39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE TJ Hockenson

We continued to believe in Hockenson, and he finally came through for us. Does that coincide with the QB change? Well, we can confirm that, as Hockenson earned his highest target share percentage (25%) of the season. Hockenson caught five of his six targets for 49 receiving yards and found the end zone for the first time since 2023. The Steelers allow the 10th most receptions (5.7) and the 6th most receiving yards (70.3) to opposing TEs per game. A reason for this might be because Hockenson saw his slot percentage increase from 24.7% to 45.8%. Against slot receivers, the Steelers allow the 13th fewest yards (62.3) per game, but the sixth-highest catch rate (76.9%). For these reasons, we're going straight back to Hockenson's receptions.

Suggested pick:

TJ Hockenson o3.5 Receptions (-140)

Steelers Team Overview

QB Aaron Rodgers

Through 3 games with the Steelers, Rodgers is averaging just 195.3 passing yards per game, 6.81 YPA, and a 65.1% completion rate. He’s thrown 7 TDs and 3 interceptions. Rodgers’ 418 total air yards is lowest out of any QB that has played all 3 games. He’ll play an international game in Ireland week 3 against the Vikings. Brian Flores and the Vikings ranking number 1 in EPA/Pass allowed through 3 weeks, allowing just 141.3 pass yards per game. Their 34.7% blitz rate is 8^th highest this season but is lower than previous years, they led the league in both 2024 and 2023. They lead the league in two-high safety looks (75.5% frequency), consistent with last season. Rodgers has been better against two-high this season, averaging 7.57 YPA and a 70.5% completion rate. That compares to 6.02 YPA and a 59.5% completion rate against single-high. Rodgers had negative splits against two-high in a larger sample size with the Jets last season, so we’ll see if that trend reverts. Against the blitz, Rodgers is averaging 7.76 YPA, a 52% completion rate and has thrown 3 TDs and 0 interceptions. That compares to 6.43 YPA, a 70.5% completion rate, 5 TDs and 3 interceptions when not blitzed. This game has a low 41.5 total and the Steelers are 2.5-point underdogs. The Vikings have also been the 5^th biggest run funnel to start the season in terms of pass rate over expected. International games tend to be sloppy, I’m targeting Rodgers’ unders.

Suggested Pick:

Under 202.5 Pass Yards (-114)

Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-109)

Under 19.5 Completions (+100)

Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-154)

RB Jaylen Warren

Warren is averaging 44 rushing yards per game on 3.07 YPC. He has seen his snap rate increase each week, from 46.3% week 1, 57.6% week 2 and 77.6% week 3. The usage on the ground is encouraging, but he has yet to have efficient production. He has been a weapon in the receiving game, averaging 3.7 receptions and 47.3 receiving yards per game. His route rate has also trended up, from 20.6% week 1, 35.9% week 2, and 45.8% week 3. He’ll face a Vikings defense that has allowed 4.53 YPC and 130 rushing yards per game, 10^th and 11^th highest respectively. The Vikings have been much worse against zone concept runs. They are allowing the 8^th most YPC (4.75) and the 7^th highest success rate against zone concept runs (50.9%), compared to the 4^th lowest YPC (2.26) and the 9^th lowest success rate against man/gap concepts (42.1%). 70% of Warren’s rush attempts have been in zone concept, so from a scheme perspective this is a bullish matchup. For the receiving matchup, the Vikings have allowed just 16.7 yards per game to the opposing backfield, tied for 6^th least. That includes matchups against RBs that are more than capable in the receiving game, including Chase Brown and Bijan Robinson. I like the Steelers to try to establish the run against a Vikings team that has the 5^th lowest pass rate over expected to start the season, especially after seeing Warren’s touches increase each week to start the season.

Suggested Pick:

Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (+102)

WR DK Metcalf

DK is averaging 45 receiving yards per game, 1.63 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. He is 1^st on the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.8%. What’s concerning is that DK has not been used much downfield. He has just a 5.8 yard aDOT and has only 1 target 20+ yards downfield. For reference, he had a 14.3 aDOT with the Seahawks last season. To start the season, the Vikings have now limited Rome Odunze, Drake London and Ja’Marr Chase all to 50 or less receiving yards. Their defense ranks number 1 in EPA/Pass allowed. Their 34.7% blitz rate is 8^th highest this season but is lower than previous years, they led the league in both 2024 and 2023. They lead the league in two-high safety looks (75.5% frequency), consistent with last season. DK is averaging 2.00 YPRR, 19% TPRR and a 22.7% 1^st-read rate against the blitz on 27 routes this season. Against two-high, DK is averaging 1.16 YPRR, 16% TPRR and a 17.9% 1^st-read rate, negative splits on a 44-route sample size. The Vikings are also allowing just 65 receiving yards per game to wide alignment, 2^nd lowest to start the season. That’s where DK has lined up on 83.1% of his routes. I’m fading DK in a tough matchup!

Suggested Pick:

Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Calvin Austin

Calvin Austin is averaging 42 receiving yards per game, 1.66 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. He ranks 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 20.6%. He is the clear number 2 receiver with a 78.4% route rate. He has split his time out wide and in the slot, at 51.3% and 46.1% rates respectively. He’ll face a Vikings defense that ranks number 1 in EPA/Pass allowed through 3 weeks, allowing just 141.3 passing yards per game. Their 34.7% blitz rate is 8^th highest this season but is lower than previous years, they led the league in both 2024 and 2023. Against the blitz, Austin is averaging 1.71 YPRR, 29% TPRR and leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 27.3% on 21 routes. The Vikings lead the league in two-high safety looks (75.5% frequency), consistent with last season. Against two-high, Calvin is averaging 1.63 YPRR, 16% TPRR, and leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 21.4%. That’s on a 43-route sample size with Rodgers at QB.

Suggested Pick:

Over 2.5 Receptions (-160)

TE Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith

Through 2 weeks, Freiermuth has a 48.5% route rate, while Jonnu has a 56.7% route rate. We saw the largest discrepancy between the 2 in week 3, as Jonnu had a 70.8% rate to Freiermuth’s 41.7%. Production wise, Freiermuth is averaging 21.7 receiving yards per game, 1.38 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 11.1% 1^st-read rate. Jonnu Smith is averaging 21.7 receiving yards per game, 1.18 YPRR, 24% TPRR and a 17.5% 1^st-read rate. Pat’s aDOT is 7.6, compared to Jonnu’s 0.8 yards. Jonnu seems to have a specific role, as a screen guy with YAC opportunity. They’ll face a Vikings defense that ranks number 1 in EPA/Pass allowed through 3 weeks. Their weakest link (relatively speaking) may be against the tight end position, as they are allowing the 6^th highest target share (15.2%) and 16^th most receiving yards to inline alignment. Jonnu and Pat have ran 32.7% and 27.7% of their routes from inline respectively. The Vikings have also yet to play a team with high caliber tight ends. I’m fading this entire pass offense in general, but this may be a decent reverse correlation spot where Jonnu catches 4 or 5 screen plays for not may yards.

Suggested Pick:

Jonnu Smith 4+ Rec + Under 28.5 Rec Yards (+600)

Jonnu Smith Under 14.5 Yard Longest Reception (-110)

Game Prediction

This game is intriguing. Let's start with the fact that Ireland will be hosting its first ever NFL game. Now we can't forget when that first game in Brazil was a mess with the turf and it was very hard to tackle. Now I don't think that will happen again but you never know. The Steelers are 2-1 and have been outgained by their opponent by 417 yards which is the 2nd worst behind only the 0-3 Titans. The Vikings are coming off a really good outing killing the Bengals. I think the Vikings win this one in a very close battle

Best Bet Vikings -2.5 -115
Lean Under 41.5 -115
Score Prediction Vikings 20 Steelers 17

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Vikings): Jordan Mason TD (-110)

We took him last week, and we're back at it again. Mason had two TDs in his first start with the Vikings. Even with Jones in the lineup, Mason has seen 100% of the inside the five rush attempts, so we should expect that to change when he has the backfield all to himself. The Steelers have allowed a rushing TD to RBs in two of their three contests.

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) +160

The Vikings defense is number 1 in EPA/Pass allowed to start the season, so I’d rather attack the run game. They are near the middle of the pack in terms of YPC and rushing yards allowed per game, so relatively speaking think a rushing TD is the better spot to target. Warren’s role has expanded each week; he was up to a 77.6% snap rate last week with 18 rush attempts. He’s averaging 4 redzone carries per game, solid volume for touchdown production.

1st Touchdown

Best Pick: (Vikings) Jordan Addison First TD (+1200)

Now, who couldn't see Addison being used early in his 2025 debut? Addison scored nine TDs in just 15 games last season. If history is to repeat itself, Addison has a chance, as three of nine TDs were the first of the game, and six of his nine were the first TDs for the Vikings.

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) +750

Same analysis as above, I honestly don’t expect the Steelers to score first, but if we are choosing a Steeler, I’m going with Warren. This Vikings defense behind Brian Flores is legit, but international games are typically odd game scripts, so who knows. At +750, I like the value. Warren should see the bulk of the carries, including near the goal line.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay 1: (Vikings) +275 odds on bet365

Minnesota Vikings ML

Jordan Mason 70+ Rushing Yards

TJ Hockenson 4+ Receptions

Parlay 2: (Steelers) +470

Aaron Rodgers Under 204.5 Passing Yards

Jaylen Warren Over 14.5 Rush Attempts

DK Metcalf Under 50.5 Receiving Yards

Chargers Team Overview

QB Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert enters Week 4 operating one of the league’s most aggressive passing offenses, with the Chargers ranking second only to Kansas City in pass rate over expectation (8.8%). He has already eclipsed 300 passing yards in two of three games, and while Week 3 marked the first time this season he didn’t record multiple scores, the underlying usage suggests regression back toward higher touchdown output. The matchup against the Giants is an ideal get-right spot. New York plays man coverage on a league-high 46.7% of dropbacks, and Herbert has excelled against man looks this season, averaging 7.45 YPA with a 93.8 passer rating on 33 attempts. The Giants’ secondary has been repeatedly exposed, surrendering the third-most passing yards per game (272.7). Even Patrick Mahomes, in a relatively controlled outing last week, threw for 224 yards and a touchdown, while other QBs have carved this defense for much bigger lines. Given how heavily Los Angeles leans on the pass, and the fact that Herbert continues to push the ball despite inconsistent efficiency (6.4 YPA last week on 47 attempts), the volume and matchup both point toward multiple scoring throws. Even if the Chargers pull ahead, the way they’ve structured their offense suggests Herbert will be trusted to put touchdowns on the board before the run game takes over late.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Passing TDs (-135)

RB Omarion Hampton

The Chargers’ backfield shifted dramatically in Week 3 after Najee Harris suffered a season-ending Achilles injury, officially turning the keys over to rookie Omarion Hampton. In his first game as the unquestioned lead back, Hampton handled a massive workload, posting 19 carries and six receptions for 129 total yards and a touchdown against Denver. While his rushing efficiency (70 yards on 19 attempts) wasn’t eye-popping, his usage was exactly what you’d expect from a featured runner in a balanced Harbaugh offense. He logged 80% of the early-down work and dominated touches in the red zone, giving him a strong role in both volume and scoring opportunities. The Giants’ defense has been particularly soft against the run, ranking fifth-worst in rushing yards allowed per game (112.3) and giving up 18 carries and nearly 100 yards to Javonte Williams last week. Advanced metrics also show they rank 14th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.88), which means backs are often getting a push at the line of scrimmage. With the Chargers likely to play from ahead against a Giants team breaking in rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, the game script should lean toward Hampton icing the clock late. Expect Los Angeles to ride their rookie workhorse heavily.

Suggested Bet:

'O' 60.5 Rush Yards (-115)

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey’s raw production has trended downward each week, from 74 yards in the opener to 48 and 41 in his next two games, but the advanced usage tells a more complete story. He remains a near-every-down player, logging a 96% route share in Week 3, and his role in the slot is especially relevant here. McConkey runs 62% of his routes inside, and the Giants are struggling badly against slot receivers, allowing the most slot receiving yards per game (106.0) and the second-most receptions (33). Against man coverage, which New York deploys at the highest rate in the league (46.7%), McConkey has been efficient, averaging 1.54 yards per route run and drawing targets on nearly a quarter of his routes (0.24 TPRR). Add in his strong separation metrics — sixth in average separation score (.207) and sixth in win rate (21.6%) among receivers with 75+ routes — and it’s clear that he’s creating opportunities even if the box scores haven’t fully reflected it. With Justin Herbert operating in a high-volume passing environment and likely attacking the weak points of the Giants’ secondary, McConkey should be leaned on as the primary chain-mover in this game.

Suggested Play:

'O' 62.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston has quickly developed into Herbert’s primary downfield option, stacking three straight games with at least 71 receiving yards while consistently commanding a healthy target share. In Week 3, despite drawing coverage from Patrick Surtain and Denver’s secondary, he still managed 6 catches for 89 yards on 10 targets, showing that volume plus talent equals production regardless of matchup. Through three weeks, Johnston has accounted for a team-leading 26% first-read target share, while ranking top 10 in win rate (20%) among receivers with at least 75 routes. That translates to reliable usage in key situations and in Herbert’s progression reads. The Chargers also rank second in catchable air yards per game (204.7), and Johnston has emerged as the biggest vertical threat in this passing attack. He averages 2.23 yards per route run against man coverage, which he’ll see plenty of against the Giants, who play man at the highest rate in the league. This defensive approach already burned them last week, when Tyquan Thornton posted 71 yards and a touchdown against similar alignments. Johnston’s consistent role and ability to win downfield make him the clear candidate to once again top his receiving yardage line.

Suggested Play:

'O' 57.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen may not be the explosive downfield option he once was, but he continues to serve as Herbert’s most trusted red-zone weapon. Through three games, he has scored in each one while recording at least 61 yards, five receptions, and seven targets every week. Against Denver, he posted 7 catches for 65 yards and a score on 11 targets, maintaining his high-leverage role despite a slightly reduced route share (77%). Allen thrives against man coverage looks, and while his yards per route run against it sits at a modest 1.44, his target per route run is an impressive 0.25, meaning Herbert is frequently looking his way in these situations. The Giants’ defense is particularly vulnerable in the slot, where Allen still runs a significant number of his routes, and JuJu Smith-Schuster just caught four passes for 55 yards in this same matchup. With Johnston stretching defenses vertically and McConkey commanding attention underneath, Allen continues to be the player Herbert looks to when drives reach scoring range. His reliability and usage around the goal line make him a strong candidate to find the end zone again.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+225)

Giants Team Overview

QB Jaxson Dart

The Giants are officially turning the page to rookie Jaxson Dart, who brings mobility and poise from his Ole Miss days. In college, Dart averaged 38.4 rushing yards per game and scored 12 rushing TDs, and His passing efficiency in college (65.7% completion, 9.5 YPA, 6.4% TD rate) suggests he can take advantage of softer looks, but the immediate challenge will be against a Los Angeles defense allowing the eighth-fewest passing yards (197.0) yet the second-most rushing yards (36.7) to quarterbacks. That combination almost forces Dart to lean on his legs when protection breaks down. With his willingness to scramble and the Giants likely trailing, he has a strong chance to clear his rushing prop.

Suggested Play:

'O' 34.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

RB Cam Skattebo

Cam Skattebo wasted no time making his presence felt once Tyrone Tracy went down, and his workload suggests he’s about to be the centerpiece of this Giants offense for at least the next month. He logged 59% of the snaps, a 37% carry share, and a 55% route share against the Chiefs, essentially functioning as both a traditional workhorse and a dual-threat option in the passing game. His line — 11 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown, plus 6 catches for 61 yards on 8 targets — underscored that he’s trusted not just between the tackles, but also as a reliable safety valve for a rookie QB. What sets Skattebo apart is how efficiently he runs: he’s currently third in missed tackles forced per attempt (.35) and fifth in YAC/ATT (3.57), proving that even in modest volume, he can create chunk plays. The Chargers’ defense presents an interesting matchup. While they’ve been solid overall, they’re allowing 4.6 yards per carry and rank bottom 10 in receptions allowed to RBs (5.0 per game). J.K. Dobbins just ripped them for 83 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries, showing that this front can be beaten by backs who run decisively. Combine Skattebo’s efficiency, his heavy role in both phases, and the fact that he already owns all of New York’s red-zone touches since Tracy’s injury, and you get a player primed to score again.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (-105)

WR Malik Nabers

It was a quiet Week 3 for Malik Nabers, finishing with only 2 catches for 13 yards on 5 targets, but the advanced usage tells a completely different story. Nabers still commands a massive role in this offense, with a 55.3% share of the team’s air yards (2nd in the league) and elite efficiency against the exact coverages he’ll see this week. The Chargers deploy Cover 3 and Cover 4 on about 60% of their defensive snaps, and Nabers averages 4.59 YPRR and .35 TPRR across 34 routes versus those looks — both elite numbers. This isn’t just a rookie with volume; this is a receiver already proving he can beat complex zone schemes with efficiency that rivals the NFL’s best. Los Angeles has also shown cracks against lead wideouts despite their reputation as a solid pass defense. Courtland Sutton torched them for 6/118/1, Jakobi Meyers managed 6/68, and Hollywood Brown posted 10/99 just last week. All three came in as primary receivers who dominated volume, which is exactly the role Nabers holds in New York. The Giants are likely to be chasing points against a high-powered Chargers offense, and that script forces Jaxson Dart to lean heavily on his best option. Nabers’ ability to win underneath, stretch vertically, and handle contested targets means he should see 8-10 looks minimum. The bet here isn’t on him finding the end zone — it’s on pure usage, which has been consistent even in a down box score week.

Suggested Play:

'O' 4.5 Receptions (-120)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

After exploding for 142 yards and a touchdown in Week 2, Wan’Dale Robinson was held in check last week, finishing with just a single 26-yard catch on four targets. Even so, his role remains significant — he ran a 71% route share and continues to work primarily from the slot, where the Chargers have been highly vulnerable. Los Angeles uses Cover 3 (33.1%) and Cover 4 (26.8%) on 60% of defensive snaps, and against those looks Robinson has managed 1.25 yards per route run and a 25% target per route run rate, which signals that when Dart faces zone, Robinson is a trusted option. The matchup sets up well: the Chargers allow the fifth-most receiving yards (89.7) and the 11th-most receptions (21) to slot receivers. With Malik Nabers likely to draw top coverage outside, Robinson’s quick-hitting routes and ability to separate underneath should make him a steady outlet for Jaxson Dart in his first full start. Volume plus a favorable matchup make Robinson a strong candidate to bounce back with consistent production in this spot.

Suggested Play:

'O' 36.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Game Prediction

Jaxson Dart was a beast in College but man this is a tough task for him playing against a really good Chargers defense in his first career start with the Giants. I'm convinced this franchise is a curse. They made Daniel Jones look terrible and now he looks like Vintage Peyton Manning with the Colts. Russell Wilson is getting a lot of hate but this is a Giants problem and I don't think a QB change is going to make a difference. The Chargers have looked very good this year and I expect a beatdown on the road. Herbert was 6-3 on the road last season and in wins they won by 14,33,4,17,7,23. In these games the total was 54,47,36,30,37,32,39,30,29. Give me the Chargers by 10 here in a low scoring game.

Best Bet Chargers -5.5 -125
Lean Under 45.5 -139
Score Prediction Chargers 23 Giants 13

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (Chargers) Keenan Allen +225

Keenan Allen has scored in every game this season, cementing himself as Justin Herbert’s most trusted red-zone option. He logged 7/65/1 on 11 targets against Denver and continues to draw looks in high-leverage spots despite a slightly reduced route share. Against the Giants’ man-heavy defense (46.7%), his target per route run jumps to 25%, and slot receivers have had success against this unit — JuJu Smith-Schuster posted 55 yards last week. With Johnston stretching the field and McConkey working underneath, Allen remains Herbert’s go-to weapon near the end zone.

Best Bet: (Giants) Cam Skattebo -105

1st Touchdown

Best Bet: (Chargers) Omarion Hampton +325

Omarion Hampton took over the Chargers’ backfield after Najee Harris’ Achilles injury, and his usage in Week 3 showed just how much trust the staff has in him. He handled 19 carries and added 6 receptions on 7 targets, dominating both ground work and passing involvement. Most importantly, Hampton has been the clear option near the goal line, owning all of the team’s inside-the-5 rushing opportunities since Harris went down. The Giants’ run defense has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (112.3) and already surrendered multiple red-zone rushing scores this season. With Los Angeles projected to lean on Hampton early to establish balance, he’s well-positioned to punch in the game’s opening score.

Longshot: (Giants) Malik Nabers +725

Los Angeles has already been beaten by opposing WR1s: Courtland Sutton (6/118/1), Jakobi Meyers (6/68), and Hollywood Brown (10/99) all found success. With rookie Jaxson Dart under center, the Giants are likely to script early plays to get their top weapon going, and Nabers’ ability to win deep or in contested spots makes him their most dangerous red-zone threat. Given his combination of volume, efficiency, and talent, he’s a prime candidate to put New York on the board first.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (Chargers): +421

Keenan Allen ATD

Ladd McConkey 'O' 62.5 Receiving Yards

Justin Herbert 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs

Parlay #2 (Giants): +339

Cam Skattebo 'O' 53.5 Rush Yards

Malik Nabers ATD

Titans Team Overview

QB Cam Ward
Cam Ward’s rookie campaign in Tennessee has gotten off to a rocky start, with flashes of promise overshadowed by overall underwhelming production. Through three weeks, he’s averaging just 169 passing yards per game with two touchdowns and one interception, while posting a passer rating of 71.4 and a completion rate of 54.5%. His QBR sits at 23.4, ranking 31st among all quarterbacks, and much of the blame can be shared with a banged-up offensive line that has already surrendered 15 sacks. Right tackle JC Latham is set to miss his third straight game with a hip strain, forcing the Titans to lean on Oli Udoh and John Ojukwu, both of whom have struggled badly in pass protection. Guard Kevin Zeitler’s status also hangs in the balance after missing last week, though his return would provide some stability. To make matters worse, Ward himself is nursing an ankle/calf issue, though he is expected to play. This week brings another stiff test against a Texans defense allowing just 17 points per game and ranking 2nd in pass rush grading while averaging 3 sacks per outing. Houston does have a weaker coverage unit (24th), but they play zone at the 4th-highest rate in the league, and Ward has graded just 26th against zone coverage. The one glimmer of optimism is that head coach Brian Callahan has handed over play-calling duties to QB coach Bo Hardegree, which could spark some much-needed adjustments. Still, with offensive line concerns, Ward’s nagging injury, and a tough pass rush on the horizon, expectations for him remain very modest in what projects to be a slow-paced, low-scoring affair.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 10.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
‘U’ 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+155)

RB Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard continues to dominate the Titans’ backfield usage, logging 54 rushing attempts compared to just 4 for Julius Chestnut, but the heavy workload hasn’t translated into big results yet. He’s averaging just under 60 rushing yards per game with only one touchdown on the season, though his ability to generate yardage after contact (2.74 per attempt) shows he’s still creating on his own despite poor blocking. Tennessee’s offensive line has been a major obstacle, ranking 25th in run block grading, and it has clearly capped Pollard’s efficiency. This week’s matchup with Houston offers a bit of hope, as the Texans rank just 22nd in run defense grading and have already allowed 4 rushing touchdowns despite giving up a middling 93.7 rushing yards per game (14th). However, Pollard’s limited role in the passing game lowers his overall ceiling—he ranks just 33rd among RBs in target rate, and Houston has been stingy against backs through the air, allowing the 9th fewest targets (15), 9th fewest receptions (11), and only the 16th most receiving yards (77). Volume keeps Pollard relevant, but between shaky blocking and a tough defensive front, his betting outlook relies heavily on finding the end zone or breaking an explosive run. I’d imagine that HOU will look to stack the boxes and force a hobbled Cam Ward to beat them.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Calvin Ridley
Ridley, despite leading the Titans with 20 targets, presents a fascinating and somewhat concerning profile for bettors. His 8 receptions for 111 yards translate to a decent 13.9 yards per reception, which is a positive indicator for "over" bets on receiving yards, especially given his 12-yard average depth of target. He primarily operates out wide (75.9%), and this aligns favorably with the Texans' defensive scheme, as they run zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Ridley also sees the 14th-highest target rate amongst receivers against zone, suggesting opportunities for targets will be there. However, the red flags are significant. Ridley's dismal 40% catch rate is the lowest on the team, directly contributing to his league-worst 27.3% drop rate, with three drops already this season. Of WR’s with at least 15 targets, Ridley ranks 2nd in drop rate. Furthermore, the passer rating when targeting Ridley is a concerning 58.5, the lowest among Titans wideouts, indicating a lack of productive connections. He hasn’t been involved in the limited redzone offense either. Of 10 red zone targets, Ridley has only one of them. While the Texans' pass defense is middle-of-the-road, allowing a 62% completion rate (9th overall) and 6.4 yards per pass attempt (12th), their low 2.8% touchdown rate allowed suggests they don't give up many scores through the air. Despite the target volume and favorable zone matchup, it’s tough to trust any over props for Ridley given his struggles so far. Bettors should weigh the potential for volume against the significant concerns about his efficiency and red zone struggles when placing their wagers. Derek Stingley’s status will be something to watch here too.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (+130)

WR Elic Ayomanor
Elic Ayomanor, while clearly the second option in the Titans' passing game with 18 targets and 10 receptions, presents a cautious betting outlook against Houston. He holds the team's highest passer rating when targeted (110.2) and best receiver grade (69.7), demonstrating efficiency when the ball comes his way, as evidenced by his 4 catches for 38 yards and a touchdown last week. His 55.6% catch rate and team-high 13.7 aDOT suggest he's being utilized downfield, and Houston's defense allows a 55.6% catch rate and 6.6 yards per target to outside receivers, which aligns with Ayomanor's 89.7% alignment out wide. However, his volume remains a concern, as he hasn't exceeded 7 targets in any game this season. Despite Ayomanor's efficiency, the Titans' offense ranks last in EPA (-41.8), limiting overall opportunities. Even with Ayomanor's promising metrics and a potentially hobbled Ward, the lack of consistent target volume, combined with a modest 1.9 yards after the catch per reception, makes an "over" on his receiving yards prop a risky lean, and bettors should temper expectations for significant production given the overall anemic offense and his current role behind Ridley.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 30.5 Receiving Yards (-120) - LEAN

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
Chigoziem Okonkwo presents an intriguing, albeit volume-dependent, betting option for his matchup against Houston, particularly when considering receptions. He's firmly established as the third option in the Titans' passing attack, boasting 16 targets and 12 receptions, with an impressive 75% catch rate. Last week's performance of 5 receptions on 6 targets for 66 yards provides a reason for optimism, and his consistent 16%+ target share in every game bodes well for continued involvement. Houston's defense allows 5.6 yards per target to tight ends (9th highest), which aligns favorably with Okonkwo's usage, especially given his high 95.8 passer rating when targeted and team-leading 6.9 yards after contact per reception. However, the Texans are stingy against tight ends, allowing only 5 receptions on 6.67 targets per game and the 9th fewest receiving yards, with just one touchdown allowed to the position all season – and Okonkwo himself has yet to see a red zone target. While he possesses the ability for long catch-and-run plays, his current 4.6 aDOT indicates he's being used strictly in the short game. Considering his usage primarily in-line (38.4%) or from the slot (49.5%), coupled with the potential for increased dump-off passes against a pressured Titans' offensive line and a zone-heavy Texans defense, betting "over" on his reception prop appears to be the most viable play, even if significant yardage or touchdown upside remains limited.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (+105)

Texans Team Overview

QB C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud's season has been underwhelming, largely due to a struggling offensive line (6th worst in pass block grading), yet his matchup against the Tennessee Titans presents a rare glimmer of hope for bettors. The Titans' defense has been porous, surrendering 41 and 33 points in their last two outings, ranking 24th in pass rush grading and 25th in pressure rate (30.8%), while only blitzing 22% of the time. This should provide Stroud with more time in the pocket, a crucial factor for a quarterback operating behind a weak offensive line. Despite the Titans having forced three interceptions, their recent passing yardage allowed (228 to Daniel Jones and 298 to Matthew Stafford the last 2 weeks) suggests some vulnerability. Stroud and his primary receiver, Nico Collins, have found success against man coverage, and the Titans play a blend of both man (16th highest) and zone (19th highest). However, Stroud's individual performance metrics remain concerning: a 76.9 passer rating, a 64% completion rate (20th), and a modest 6.7 yards per attempt (15th) with an 8.0 aDOT indicate a reluctance or inability to consistently push the ball downfield, reflected in his 2 touchdown passes to 3 interceptions. Stroud has used his legs more this season - 13 carries for 81 yards. He has yet to fall below 4 rushing attempts in a game and is averaging 27 rushing yards per game. I think that remains a part of his game as the line struggles to hold up, but in a matchup like this he may have enough time to throw. While Stroud has largely struggled this season, the favorable matchup against a struggling Titans' pass defense offers his best opportunity yet to potentially exceed his passing yardage prop, although his low touchdown total still makes "under" on passing touchdowns a consideration despite the overall defensive struggles of Tennessee.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Carries (-114)
‘O’ 217.5 Passing Yards (-115)

RB Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb's outlook against the Tennessee Titans presents a high-upside touchdown proposition, despite some concerning workload trends. While Chubb has amassed 141 rushing yards on 34 carries (4.1 YPC) and added 5 receptions for 31 yards, his modest 1.54 yards after contact per attempt and low 2.9% explosive run rate suggest he hasn't been his typical dominant old self. The most significant red flag for volume bets is his decreasing snap share, evidenced by only out-carrying Woody Marks 9 to 6 last week. However, the matchup against the Titans' porous run defense is too good to ignore: they're allowing the 3rd most rushing yards per game (118), 5 rushing touchdowns, the 4th highest explosive run rate (9.6%), and a staggering 5.27 yards per carry. This extreme vulnerability to the run, even against a less-explosive Chubb, makes a touchdown prop at +155 particularly appealing. Given the likelihood of a positive game script where the Texans can lean on the run, both Chubb and Marks could see substantial work, but Chubb remains the primary goal-line threat, making a bet on him finding the end zone a strong play over his rushing yardage or carry props, which are more susceptible to the workload split.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown (+155)

RB Woody Marks
Woody Marks, the rookie running back from USC, presents an intriguing, albeit volume-dependent, "over" bet on his rushing yards in a favorable matchup against the Tennessee Titans. With Dameon Pierce a healthy scratch and Dare Ogunbowale out of the offensive picture last week, Marks appears to have solidified his role in a two-man backfield alongside Nick Chubb. While he currently has 12 carries for 44 yards (3.7 YPC), his 2.75 yards after contact per attempt, combined with a pair of catches for 46 yards, hint at a more explosive profile than his current YPC suggests. This explosiveness could be key against a Titans run defense that is hemorrhaging rushing yards (3rd most allowed at 118 YPG), 5 rushing touchdowns, the 4th highest explosive run rate (9.6%), and a 5.27 YPC. The primary concern, however, remains the unknown workload. If Marks maintains or increases the usage he saw last week, where he trailed Chubb by only three carries, the strong matchup and potential for a positive game script where the Texans lean on the run could easily see him clear his rushing yards prop. Therefore, should the usage trends continue, Marks becomes a compelling "over" play on his rushing yards, capitalizing on his explosiveness against a vulnerable Titans' front.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 26.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Nico Collins
Nico Collins is poised for another strong performance against the Tennessee Titans, especially after his breakout 8-catch, 104-yard, and 1-touchdown outing last week. Collins is the clear alpha in the Texans' passing game, boasting an 11th-ranked 28.1% target rate, an 11.3 aDOT, and an impressive 12.9 yards per reception, accounting for 30.2% of the team's receiving yardage. His excellent track record against man coverage (33.3% target share, 62.5% catch rate, 38.4% team yardage share, 11.6 YPR) aligns perfectly with Tennessee's defensive scheme, which plays a substantial amount of man. Adding fuel to the fire, L'Jarius Sneed's dismissive comments about Collins have undoubtedly motivated the receiver, who has also commanded over 50% of the team's air yards in each of the last two weeks. While his season catch rate is 56.5%, the favorable matchup against a Titans defense that has consistently allowed production to opposing wide receivers (Sutton 6 for 61 and 1 TD, Adams 6 for 106 and 1 TD, Nacua 8 for 91, Pittman 6 for 73 and 1 TD) makes "over" bets on his receiving yards, receptions, and potentially touchdowns the only logical plays here. Collins is locked in for a high-volume, high-production game.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Christian Kirk
Christian Kirk, after missing the first two weeks with a hamstring injury, immediately stepped into his expected role as the Texans' primary slot receiver in Week 3, logging 67% of snaps and ranking second on the team with 8 targets. This instantly relegated Jaylin Noel to minimal involvement, confirming Kirk's importance. Despite only converting those 8 targets into 3 catches for 25 yards last week, his 24% target rate per route run (second only to Collins) signals C.J. Stroud's intent to involve him. The matchup against the Tennessee Titans is particularly favorable for Kirk: Tennessee ranks 6th in yardage allowed to the slot per game (84), permits the 5th highest yards per reception (12.6), and the 7th highest yards per target (8.69). While the Titans have yet to allow a touchdown to a slot receiver and Kirk saw no red zone targets himself last week, the consistent volume, positive game script for the passing game, and his ramp-up in usage suggest that this could be the week Kirk and Stroud truly connect. Given his high target share in the slot against a susceptible defense, Kirk is a strong "over" candidate for his receptions prop, with an outside chance at exceeding his receiving yardage total as he gets fully integrated into the offense.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-115)
‘O’ 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz, despite ranking second on the Texans in both targets (14) and receptions (11) with an impressive 78.6% catch rate, faces a challenging matchup against the Tennessee Titans, making an "over" on his reception prop at plus money the most appealing, albeit cautious, bet. His versatility in alignment (55.4% in-line, 37% slot, 7.6% out wide) allows him to be a consistent safety blanket for C.J. Stroud, evidenced by his 6.86 yards per target. However, the Titans' defense is notoriously stingy against tight ends, allowing the 11th fewest receiving yards per game, the 8th fewest receptions (4.33), and the 6th fewest targets (5.67), with only one touchdown surrendered to the position all season. While the return of Christian Kirk might slightly diminish Schultz's target share, the possibility of Stroud facing less pressure than usual, combined with a potentially positive game script that allows for more short, high-percentage throws, could still lead to enough volume for Schultz to hit his reception mark. Therefore, while fading his receiving yardage prop seems prudent given the matchup and Stroud's potential to push the ball downfield more, an "over" on Schultz's receptions at favorable odds offers a calculated risk, banking on his role as a reliable short-yardage option.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Game Prediction

This feels like a it'll be a slog of a game. HOU ranks 28th in EPA per play, while TEN ranks 31st. Both teams have really struggled to move the ball down the field behind poor offensive line play. HOU's defense is legit while TEN' defense has allowed 41 and 33 points per game over their last two. I favor the under here and even in a good matchup I'm not sure HOU moves the ball well. My favorite spot is fading the Titans team total, despite coach Callahan handing over the play calling duties. A key piece of the offensive line remains out and Cam is now hobbled with an ankle/calf injury. The struggles should continue as the Texans will likely try and play keep away and dominate time of possession.

Best Bet: TEN Titans Team Total under 15.5
Lean: Total under 39.5
Score Prediction: Texans 20 - Titans 13

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (Titans) Tony Pollard +145
Despite being a mostly stout defense against the run, HOU has allowed 4 rushing touchdowns in three weeks so far. There isn’t much working in the Titan’s passing game and Cam may be hobbled.

Longshot: (Titans) Chimere Dike +700
Continues to lead the Titans in redzone targets (6) and is used in a multitude of ways - pass game, run game and on returns. With a new offensive coordinator, we could see a more creative offensive game plan.

Best Bet: (Titans) Nick Chubb +155
A very solid value in a good matchup for a guy that will likely get the goal line work. TEN has already allowed 5 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this season and HOU is more likely to see a positive game script.

1st Touchdown

Longshot: (Titans) Chimere Dike +3000
See above! We continue to get a nice price for Chim, so we’ll continue to take a look at it. He leads the team in redzone targets and can score via the pass, run or return game.

Best Bet (Texans) Nico Collins +550
What better way to get back at Sneed than to burn him for the first touchdown? I think Nico will come out motivated and have a nice game.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (Titans): +411
Tony Pollard under 16.5 Receiving Yards
Elic Ayomanor 10+ Yard Reception
Cam Ward under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns

Parlay #2 (Texans): +127
HOU Texans ML
C.J. Stroud 200+ Passing Yards
Woody Marks 15+ Rushing Yards

Parlay #3 (Both): +230
HOU Texans ML
Total under 48.5
Nico Collins Touchdown

Commanders Team Overview

QB Marcus Mariota

Another week without Jayden Daniels represents another opportunity for Marcus Mariota. Last week, Mariota got the job done to secure the Commander victory, completing 71.4% of his passes for 207 passing yards and one PTDs, adding 40 yards and a TD on the ground. Mariota's next challenge will be against the Atlanta Falcons, who have been quite good against the pass, allowing the fewest completions (14.7), and the second fewest pass attempts (25.7) and passing yards (148.7). Now, they haven't faced the best opponents outside of Baker Mayfield in JJ McCarthy and Bryce Young. The Falcons are a very zone-heavy team, running the scheme 72% of the time. But they mostly run Cover 3 (41.5%) and Cover 4 (20.2%). The bright spot for Mariota is that 177 of his 207 passing yards came against Cover 3 and Cover 4. However, without the likes of Terry McLaurin, we don't expect Mariota to have much success, as McLaurin was the receiver Mariota targeted the most.

Suggested pick:

Marcus Mariota u202.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Well, we thought it was Jacory's time, but he was overshadowed by Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols, despite leading the team in snap share. Rodriguez led the backfield in attempts with 11, with Croskey-Merritt having eight, which translated to just 33 rushing yards. However, he did find the end zone, which was nice to see. This week, Merritt gets the Falcons' rush defence, which has allowed the 11th fewest rush attempts (19.3) and the eighth-fewest rushing yards (69.7) per game this season. The Commanders' backfield is so crowded, it's hard to tell who's going to have the good game. However, one thing in Croskey-Merritt's favour is how the Falcons' run defence lines up. They line up majority in man/gap (45.8%), and allow a higher yards per carry (4.06) than when running zone. Croskey-Merritt performs much better against man/gap, seeing his yards per carry increase to 6.44 against the coverage. This line is just too low for Croskey-Merritt, who will eventually run away with this backfield – pun intended.

Suggested Pick:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt o31.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Jacory Croskey Merritt 50+ Rushing Yards (+280)

WR Deebo Samuel

With McLaurin not available for this contest, Deebo becomes the No. 1 WR for Washington. In his first week with Mariota under centre, Deebo had his worst week of the season, seeing just three targets and turning that into two receptions for 11 receiving yards. That's the same target share as Luke McCaffrey. The Falcons have shut down opposing WRs, allowing the third-fewest receptions (9.3) and the 10th-fewest receiving yards (123) per game. Going up against a heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 defence is not great for Deebo. Against the coverages this season, Deebo has just eight targets for 40 receiving yards. That amounts to a 1.43 yards per route run against the coverage, which does not even rank inside the top 100 across all pass catchers. Deebo has lined up in the slot on 81.3% of his routes, and will draw the Billy Bowman matchup, who is averaging just 31 receiving yards allowed per game. Atlanta ranks in the bottom half of the league in catch rate (69.2%) and receiving yards(56.7) to slot receivers this season. As if there wasn't enough to talk you off the Deebo ledge this week, he gets a lot of his yards after the catch, having the fourth most yards after the catch this season. To slot WRs, the Falcons allow the fewest yards after the catch (54) this season.

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel u52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Jaylin Lane/Luke McCaffrey/Chris Moore

We'll keep this short and sweet. With McLaurin's absence, we really don't know who will be the WR2 in this offence. McCaffrey had the better day, going for 56 yards and a TD on three receptions; Moore had two receptions for 25 receiving yards, and Lane had one reception for -2 receiving yards. But when you look at their snap percentage, Moore had the third-highest snap percentage (55.6%), followed by 38.9% from McCaffrey and 25.9% for Lane. It's too crowded, and with only a few drives of sample size, it's best to wait and see how this week plays out before suggesting a pick.

Suggested pick:

Pass

TE Zach Ertz

After two successful weeks, Ertz came back down to earth with Mariota under centre. He caught all three of his targets, going for 38 receiving yards. We might see a bit more of the same this week, as the Falcons allow the second fewest receptions (2.0) and receiving yards (16) to opposing TEs per game. But again, let's look at who they played. Cade Otton (0/2, 0 receiving yards), TJ Hockenson (1/3, 12 receiving yards), and Ja'Tavion Sanders (2/2, 11 receiving yards) – either not fantastic TEs or poor QB play. Ertz mostly lines up in the slot opposite to Deebo, but where we like him a tad more is against Cover 3 and Cover 4. In Week 3 with Mariota, Ertz had 29 of his 38 receiving yards against those coverages, while Deebo had just two. In a game where we anticipate the Commanders throwing more than 18 times, Ertz should be a heavily used safety valve for Mariota.

Suggested pick:

Zach Ertz o4.5 Receptions (-120)

Falcons Team Overview

QB Michael Penix Jr.

What happened last week in Carolina can only be described as a complete debacle as the Panthers humiliated the Falcons 30-0. It was the first time CAR has recorded a shutout since defeating the Detroit Lions 20-0 in week 11 of the 2020 season. It was a major step back for Michael Penix who has lost each of his 2 starts to a Panthers franchise that has won just 8 games since the ’23 season. Penix’s record in six career starts as Falcons QB is 2-4, and he’s thrown 4 TD and 5 INT. To be fair, he is essentially still a rookie but getting blanked by Carolina has left a pretty sour taste in the mouths of fans and its organization. There are some rather concerning trends we are seeing out of Penix in his young career that were on display last week. For one, Penix was just 4 of 16 on throws 10 yards downfield or further, and through the first 3 games in ’25 he’s completed just 11 of 33 in this subset for a CMP rate of only 33.3%. The injury report is not official yet, but Penix may catch a break on Sunday when he faces a Washington defense, most specifically its secondary which is suffering multiple injuries. Starting safety, Will Harris (broken fibula) is out and starting safety Percy Butler (hip) has not returned to practice this week. Starting CB, Trey Amos was limited in practice on Wednesday and is questionable heading into week 3. With all that said, I still have major reservations with Penix under center right now. The Commanders 3 primary defensive coverages are Cover 1 (30.1%), Cover 3 (23.0%) and Cover 4 (13.3%). Against these schemes, Penix is 37 of 61 (60.7 CMP%) for 370 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT. On top of all of his other misgivings, one primary concern for Penix this Sunday is how he will deal with a Washington pass rush that has the 4th highest pressure-rate in the NFL at 47.0%. When the Falcons QB is under pressure, he is averaging just 4.9 YPPA (23rd in NFL). So far in ’25, the Commanders have allowed the 3rd most pass yards downfield but we know how much Penix has struggled here. I think he’s going to get some yards in this game, but the best play is for the ATL quarterback to throw an interception. In his 6 starts, Penix has been picked off at least once in 4 of them and he will be tempted to make more throws downfield in this game, lending itself to an INT.

Suggested Bet:

Michael Penix Jr. o0.5 Interceptions (-127)

RB Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson continues to be the one constant that Falcons fans can rely on. He has recorded at least 100+ yards from scrimmage in each of the first 3 weeks, and going back to last season Robinson has cleared this in 13 of his L15 games overall. Ironically, one of the two games Bijan did not hit this mark in was against Washington in week 17 where he fell just short, posting 98 total yards, however he did find the end zone twice in that game. The Commanders run defense has been much improved to begin the season. Washington is allowing the 3rd fewest rush YPC to opposing RBs (3.2 YPC), 3rd fewest receptions (8) and 3rd fewest receiving yards out of the backfield (54). After the way Penix has performed it almost seems a foregone conclusion that WAS is going to force his arm to beat them, while trying to limit Robinson to as few yards as possible. Still, keeping Bijan from scoring is a tall task for any team. He can score from the goal line, red zone and has the ability to bust one out for a big play at a moment’s notice. Robinson scored a TD in week 1 and hasn’t found the end zone since, but last season he had that same number after week 3 and finished with 15 total TDs. He didn’t go more than 2 straight games without finding paydirt at any point in ’24 and he scored twice against the Commanders last season. With the Bucs out to a 3-0 start, Atlanta knows the NFC South could get away from them very quickly and I think Bijan Robinson wills himself into the end zone this Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (-180)

WR Drake London

Drake London has caught 16 balls for 159 yards this season and has yet to find the end zone. He had 15 targets in week one but has since recorded just 4 and 8. The main issue facing London right now is the inexperience and inaccuracy of Michael Penix. Out of the 27 targets that have gone Drake’s way, nearly 20% have been uncatchable. The good news for him this Sunday is he will be going up against a Washington defense that has a plethora of injuries. The specifics of these are outlined in my write up above on Michael Penix. While the Commanders run defense has shown great improvement to begin the season, its pass defense has been suspect. Through the first 3 weeks of the ’25 season, WAS is allowing 9.0 YPT (7th most) to opposing WRs, along with a 7.5% TD rate (9th most). Another reason to feel good about the prospect of London is he and Penix have faced Washington together in week 17 last year, where Drake London caught 7 of 13 targets for 106 yards. Against Cover 1, Cover 3 and Cover 4 defensive coverages, the ATL wide receiver has been targeted at a 25.0% rate, catching 11 of 16 balls for 94 yards. Given the that the Commanders secondary is decimated coming into this game and likely outcome for progression coming off the Falcons miserable performance Carolina, I think London is in a good position to collect some yards in a nice buy-low spot this Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Drake London 60+ Receiving Yards (-148)

WR Darnell Mooney

After seeing 4 targets in his return to the Falcons lineup in week 2, Darnell Mooney collected a whopping 11 last Sunday. On the negative side, Mooney hauled in just 4 which goes back to the issues Michael Penix is having with his accuracy. The Atlanta #2 WR has been on the field for nearly every snap the last 2 weeks, so this is a good sign for him going forward. I think there is some real upside for Mooney in this matchup. As I’ve already mentioned, the Commanders secondary is bludgeoned right now. On top of that, they have been vulnerable to speedy receivers lined up on the outside of the field. Washington is allowing 21.4 yards per catch (8th most) to WRs on pass attempts of 10 yards or more. They’ve run man-coverage at a 32.6% rate (5th most) in ’25 and since returning to Falcons lineup, Darnell Mooney has been targeted on 54.0% of his routes vs man-coverage.

Suggested Bet:

Darnell Mooney 40+ Receiving Yards (-141)

Darnell Mooney o19.5 Longest Reception (-125)

TE Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts has caught 15 of 19 targets for 159 yards to begin the ’25 season, and despite the return of Darnell Mooney he has still been targeted 5 and 6 times in the past two weeks. Pitts is currently dealing with a toe injury and was limited in practice on Wednesday, but he should be good to go for week 4. That said, I would continue monitoring him to play it safe. The real positive for Pitts is he seems to be the one receiver that Penix has the most accuracy with. The Falcons QB has a 78.9% completion rate with his TE, while this number drops rapidly with Drake London (59.3%) and Darnell Mooney (40.0%). Obviously, a big part of that has to do with the length of Pitts targets, but as inaccurate as Penix has been this year, we’ll take any consistency we can get. As it relates to Washington, they got torched by Tucker Kraft (6-124-1) but kept Brock Bowers (4-38-0). Pitts is getting 18.4% of ATL’s targets and he’s been on field for 90.6% of Michael Penix’s dropbacks. Pitts should once again provide Penix as a safety blanket in week 4.

Suggested Bet:

Kyle Pitts o3.5 Receptions (-167)

Game Prediction

After watching last week's shutout loss against the Panthers 30-0 its very hard to back this Falcon team but I'm holding my breath and expecting a bounceback against a banged up Commanders team. Give me the Falcons

Best Bet Falcons ML -135
Lean Under 43.5 -112
Score Prediction Commanders 17 Falcons 20

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Falcons): Bijan Robinson -180

Three weeks into the ’24 season Bijan Robinson had just 1 touchdown, but he finished the season with 14 scores. He finds himself in similar territory here on Sunday. The Falcons have already lost to undefeated Tampa Bay, and they know the NFC South can get away from them quickly with a loss in week 3. Robinson didn’t go more than 2 games in a row without finding pay dirt last year, and he scored twice against WAS in week 17. Bijan knows how important this game is for Atlanta, and win or lose, he will find a way to get himself into the end zone Sunday.

Best Pick: (Commanders): Jacory Croskey-Merritt Anytime TD (+165)

He's cashed for us in two of the three weeks. Why not go right back to him, especially in a matchup where we anticipate he gets more work? In the first week without Austin Ekeler, Croskey-Merritt had two of the three inside the five carries for the Commanders, one of which he took to the house. Let's see him do it again, with even better odds!

First TD Picks

Best Play (Falcons): Darnell Mooney +1400

I think Darnell Mooney to score the first TD is vastly undervalued in this spot. Washington's secondary is decimated with injuries right now and they have had issues with speedy outside WR's. There's no doubt Michael Penix's accuracy has been a major issue but all it takes is one big play, and since returning in week 2 Darnell Mooney has been targeted on 54.0% of his routes vs man-coverage.

Best Pick: (Commanders) Chris Rodriguez First TD (+1000)

This is more to cover our butts in case it's Rodriguez that takes more goal-line work from Croskey-Merritt. Rodriguez had the other RB rush attempt inside the five. However, in the red zone, Rodriguez had the same number of carries (2) as Croskey-Merritt. Not to mention, when Mariota ran in the first TD last week, it was Rodriguez on the field.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1: (Falcons) +305

Michael Penix 1+ Interception

Drake London 5+ Receptions

Darnell Mooney 40+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: (Commanders) +350 odds on bet365

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 40+ Rushing Yards

Zach Ertz 5+ Receptions

Saints Team Overview

QB Spencer Rattler

Spencer Rattler has been serviceable this year, but his production is dependent on volume. Last week in Seattle he was 28 of 39 for 218 yards with a TD and INT. This week he will face a Buffalo defense that predominantly plays zone coverage (76.1% rate). The Bills lean heavily on their Cover-3 (28.4%) and Cover-2 (23.9%) defensive schemes. Surprisingly, Rattler has shown some consistency against these coverages in ’25 going 43 of 58 (74.1% CMP) for 327 yards. The bad news here for Rattler is BUF has allowed the fewest pass yards to opposing QBs (146.0 PYPG) through the first 3 weeks of the season. Lamar Jackson (209), Justin Fields/Tyrod Taylor (83) and Tua Tagovailoa (146) all combined for a total of only 438 yards; however, we are getting a very nice buy-low line on Rattler this Sunday. The Bills are favored by a massive 15.5 points at home, and the Saints are going to be behind which will force Rattler to throw the ball. This is going to result in him throwing for more yards and taking more chances down the field. As a defense, Buffalo has just one team INT and the lines below are contradictory to one another. These are also 2 great spots to put together as a small parlay.

Suggested Bet:

Spencer Rattler 190+ Pass Yards (-177)

Spencer Rattler 1+ Interceptions (-168)

RB Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara’s role in the New Orleans offense seems to be trending downward with relation to his production as pass-catching RB. Last year, Kamara had a 16.2% target share and so far in ’25 that number has been cut in half to the tune of 8.6%. A drop this significant isn’t just coincidence either as the Saints RB didn’t have a single game last season where he dipped below a 12.0% target share. We knew Kellen Moore’s pass offense was going to shift more towards his wide receivers but not to this degree. If there is a silver lining here, it’s that Kamara still ranks 5th among NFL running backs on the field for dropbacks at 74.3%. Still, with just a 7.0% first read rate (15th in NFL), this doesn’t look good for him going forward. Where Kamara does have value is in the ground game, and New Orleans is going to need him to run the ball well in order to keep themselves in the game for as long as possible. Buffalo is allowing exactly 100 rush YPG this season. They were carved up by Derrick Henry (18 CAR, 169, 2 TD) in week 1 and allowed Miami Dolphins RB’s to average just under 5.0 YPC last Sunday. A big part of this is due to the absence of Ed Oliver, the Bill top DT who has already been ruled out for this Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Alvin Kamara 50+ Rush Yards (-121)

WR Chris Olave

Based on his matchup in week 3, Chris Olave could be the best spot for New Orleans. Kellen Moore’s offense hasn’t yielded much in yardage for the Saints top WR, but so far in ’25, Olave is getting a team-high 31.9% target share. In the first 3 weeks he has had 13, 10 and 14 targets. Again, his yardage should be avoided until we see him turn some of his catches into bigger plays, but he should have a big game on Sunday with NO being a 15.5 point underdog this Sunday in Buffalo. He has already run 125 routes this year (T-2nd most in NFL) and will face a Bills defense that deploys Cover-3 (28.4%) more than any other coverage. Of Chris Olave’s 23 receptions, 12 have come against Cover-3. Moreover, 14 of his 37 overall targets have come vs this coverage scheme. He is running a route on 94.7% of Spencer Rattler’s dropbacks this year. This may be an uninspiring offense, but it has benefited Olave greatly with regard to being a pass-catching WR. The Saints are going to be throwing the ball a lot on Sunday, and this is a great position for him to rack up a ton of catches with New Orleans.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Olave 6+ Receptions (-149)

Chris Olave 7+ ALT Receptions (+123)

Chris Olave 8+ ALT Receptions (+216)

WR Rashid Shaheed

Rashid Shaheed has incredible speed and is a major downfield threat, but he is experiencing difficulties getting adjusted to Kellen Moore’s offense in New Orleans. After getting a 24.4% target-rate last year, Shaheed has seen his usage drop to 17.3% through the first 3 weeks of the ’25 season. Another major talking point relates to the lack of downfield targets Shaheed is getting. In the last two years, 33% and 40% of Shaheed’s targets were on throws of 20+ yards, but that number has also severely dropped to just 21% in ’25. We’re still early in the season, but much like Alvin Kamara, a drop this significant is not mere coincidence. Despite the likelihood of the Saints playing from behind on Sunday, Shaheed’s matchup in Buffalo doesn’t appear to be a good one. The Bills are running zone-coverage at a 76.1% rate and Shaheed (0.15 TPRR) is sitting a very distant 3rd for NO in targets per route run vs. zone-coverage when you compare him to Chris Olave (0.29 TPRR) and Juwan Johnson (0.27 TPRR).

Suggested Bet:

Pass

TE Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson has continued to sustain a high target-rate 3 weeks into the ’25 season. He’s being targeted at a 24.4% rate and is doing so consistently. Head coach Kellen Moore has made it abundantly clear that Johnson is going to be a major focal point of his offense. The New Orleans tight end is running a route on nearly 90% of QB Spencer Rattler’s dropbacks. Johnson ranks 2nd among NFL TE’s with 28 total targets and 2^nd in first read targets at the TE position. He's clearly the #2 passing option in the Saints offense. After 2 weeks, New Orleans target share rates are as follows: Chris Olave (31.9%), Juwan Johnson (24.4%), Rashid Shaheed (16.5%) and Alvin Kamara (8.2%). He is one of only 7 NFL receivers with at least 8+ targets in every week to begin the season.

Suggested Bet:

Juwan Johnson 5+ Receptions (-153)

Juwan Johnson 6+ ALT Receptions (+122)

Juwan Johnson 7+ ALT Receptions (+225)

Bills Team Overview

QB Josh Allen

Through 3 weeks, Allen is averaging 251.7 passing yards per game, 7.63 YPA, a 69.7% completion rate and he’s thrown 5 TDs. He’s also averaging 8 rush attempts for 38 yards per game on the ground, to go with 2 rushing TDs. In week 4, he is a 15.5-point favorite against the Saints, with an implied 31-point team total. The Saints are 4^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and are forcing the 5^th lowest pressure rate (26.7%). When operating from a clean pocket, Allen is averaging 7.99 YPA and a 75.7% completion rate. Those are positive splits compared to 6.56 YPA and a 52% completion rate when pressured. It’s also important to note that Josh has 0 scrambles in 74 dropbacks in a clean pocket compared to 10 scrambles for 103 yards and a TD in 39 dropbacks against pressure. He only plays hero ball when needed. Through 3 games this season, the Saints have played Cover 3 at the 3^rd highest rate (44.6%). Allen is averaging 6.13 YPA and a 70.8% completion rate in 28 dropbacks against Cover 3. He’s also scrambled 3 times for 13 yards. Last season, he had a 7.42% scramble rate against Cover 3 compared to a 8.22% against all other coverages. This game has major blowout risk as well, which would mean less playing time for Allen to run, as well as not taking the knees.

Suggested Pick:

Under 5.5 Rush Attempts (+115)

Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-155)

RB James Cook

Through 3 games this season, Cook is averaging 94.7 rushing yards per game on 5.36 YPC and has rushed for 4 TDs. His snap share is up to 56.8% this season after being just 49.8% from week 1 to 17 last year. He has 53 carries on the season. The next closest RB is Ray Davis, with 10. In the receiving game, Cook is averaging 3 receptions and 23.7 receiving yards per game. Most of that production came in the first game on a long screen play. His route rate is up to 39.1% this season, from 35.2% last season. He also continues to rack up touchdowns despite many experts calling for regression this season. Turns out Cook is above average in short yardage situations with a strong offensive line and elite offense, which is ripe for touchdown production. He’ll face a Saints defense that is middle of the pack in rush yards allowed per game and has allowed the T-5^th lowest YPC (3.60). They held CMC to 55 rushing yards and KWIII (w/o Charbonnet) to 38 yards the past 2 weeks. With an implied 31-point team total, Cook will more than likely once again be in position for rushing touchdowns. He’s scored in 80% of his last 20 games and the lead RB has scored against the Saints in every game this season. Despite the tough matchup on paper, I lean over on Cook’s props due to the positive game script, increased role year over year and just pure dominance from Cook this season.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime TD (-190)

2+ TDs (+250)

Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Khalil Shakir

Through 3 weeks this season, Shakir is averaging 40.3 receiving yards per game on 1.42 YPRR, has been targeted on just 15% of his routes and has a 1^st-read target rate of just 12.7%. His numbers are down across the board to start the season, last season he averaged 54.7 receiving YPG, 2.27 YPRR, 27% TPRR and had a 1^st-read rate of 24.9%. Josh Allen has spread the ball around this season, and the Bills have leaned on the run in positive game scripts. That is likely to be the case again here as 15.5-point favorites against the Saints. The Saints rank 4^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed this season but are middle of the pack in passing yards per game allowed due to opponents not needing to air it out against them. They are also forcing the 5^th lowest pressure rate (26.7%). Shakir is averaging 1.44 YPRR and a 19% TPRR when Allen has operated from a clean pocket this season, slightly positive splits. Through 3 games this season, the Saints have played Cover 3 at the 3rd highest rate (44.6%). Shakir is averaging 2.53 YPRR and 20% TPRR against Cover 3 this season. Last season he averaged 2.65 YPRR and 33% TPRR. He has consistently had positive splits against the coverage scheme. Shakir has lined up in the slot on 71.8% of his routes this year. The Saints have allowed the 2^nd fewest YPRR to the slot this season (1.17). Shakir is listed at just a 39.5 receiving yard and a 3.5 receptions line, I’m not comfortable taking either side here as I think the lines are at fair value.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

WR Keon Coleman

Coleman excelled in his first game of his second season, catching 8 of 11 targets for 112 yards and a TD. He averaged 2.60 YPRR, was targeted on 26% of his routes, and far surpassed all other Bills’ weapons with a 34.6% 1^st-read rate. Since then, he’s had just 26 and 20 receiving yards. Despite some calling for his breakout, he continues to be a boom or bust candidate. He still leads the Bills in receiving on the season, averaging 52.7 receiving yards per game, 1.88 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. He is also first on the team in 1^st-read rate at 25.4%. This game has blowout risk as the Bills are 15.5-point favorites, but someone has to produce to get to the blowout, as the Bills have a 31-point implied total. The Saints rank 4^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed this season but are middle of the pack in passing yards per game allowed due to opponents not needing to air it out against them. They are also forcing the 5^th lowest pressure rate (26.7%). Keon is averaging 2.21 YPRR and a 27% TPRR when Allen has not been pressured this year. In terms of scheme, the Saints have played Cover 3 at the 3rd highest rate (44.6%). Coleman is averaging 1.53 YPRR and 13% TPRR against Cover 3 this year in a 15-route sample size. He dominated Cover 3 last year, averaging 3.01 YPRR. The Bills faced 6 teams who played Cover 3 at a 30%+ rate last season. He had 49+ receiving yards and a long reception of 24+ yards in 5 of 6 matchups. Keon has lined up out wide on 86.9% of his routes. The Saints have allowed the 5^th most YPRR this season (2.64), as well as the 5^th highest touchdown rate to wide alignment (12.9%). I prefer Keon to Shakir in this matchup, and this could be a boom spot.

Suggested Pick:

Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

50+ Receiving Yards (+155)

60+ Receiving Yards (+250)

70+ Receiving Yards (+390)

80+ Receiving Yards (+580)

90+ Receiving Yards (+900)

Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards (-110)

Anytime TD (+160)

TE Dalton Kincaid

Through 3 games, Kincaid is averaging 50.3 receiving yards per game, 2.32 YPRR, and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. He is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 19%. The one issue preventing Kincaid from entering the upper echelon of TE talent is that he still has a part-time role, running a route on just 56.5% of Allen’s dropbacks. The Bills have been a spread-out team in terms of production to start the year. They are 15.5-point favorites against the Saints but have a 31-point implied total. The only tight end the Saints have played against so far this season with consistent production has been McBride. He caught 6 receptions for 61 yards in their matchup week 1. Kincaid loves to produce in the 1^st quarter. Last season, he averaged 2.31 YPRR and 34% TPRR in the 1^st quarter, compared to 1.60 YPRR and a 26% TPRR in all other quarters. That production has continued this season as he leads the Bills in 1Q receiving yards in a 3-game sample size. The Saints have run zone coverage at a 91.3% rate in the 1^st quarter this season (2^nd highest). Kincaid is averaging 2.95 YPRR and a 28% TPRR against zone this season. I would like to target Kincaid 1Q receiving yards to avoid blowout risk once it opens. I’m also targeting Kincaid anytime TD as the Bills have a 31-point implied total and Kincaid already has 3 end zone targets this season. He had just 4 in 2023 and 4 in 2024.

Suggested Pick

Anytime Touchdown (+240)

10+ 1Q Receiving Yards (+118)

Game Prediction

This Saints team is BRUTAL and Rattler has been awful in his career on the road. They have to make some adjustments and one of those is getting Alvin Kamara more involved in the receiving game. Bills is an easy pick for me at -13.5.

Best Bet Bills -13.5-125
Lean Bills 'O' 3.5 TD's
Score Prediction Saints 13 Bills 30

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Saints): Alvin Kamara +135

Alvin Kamara has only found the end zone once this season, but with New Orleans likely to be playing from behind he has great value to find the end zone in week 4 even if it does happen in garbage time. The Bills have already allowed 3 rushing TD’s this season and Kamara is a strong back who can punch it in from the goal line.

1st Touchdown Picks

Best Play (Saints): Juwan Johnson +2400

This is great value just because of the sheer fact that nobody is expecting New Orleans to score first in this game. That said, anything can happen in the NFL and if the Saints happen to get into the red zone Juwan Johnson is a big target at 6-4, 231 lbs. He’s already caught one TD this year. At +2400 this is a really nice low risk, high reward First TD play.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (Saints): Player Name +320

Chris Olave 7+ Receptions

Juwan Johnson 6+ Receptions

Eagles Team Overview

QB Jalen Hurts

The Eagles' passing offence was finally unlocked last week; it only took them until the second half. Through the first two weeks, Hurts had just 253 passing yards, which was just 27 more than he had in Week 3 – and he did so against a good Rams defence. This week, he'll match up against the Buccaneers, who allow the 11th most pass completions (22) and attempts (34), and the 15th most passing yards (253) per game to opposing QBs. Tampa Bay run around league average in terms of man coverage and zone coverage, but run Cover 3 at a top 10 rate (36.3%). Against Cover 3, Hurts has the sixth-fewest yards per attempt (5.67) among QBs with at least 10 dropbacks against the coverage. However, his completion percentage (70.8%) ranks in the top 12. With that in mind, as well as the rest of his season's troubles outside of two quarters, we'll pivot to what Hurts can do with his legs. The Buccaneers are allowing the 9th most rush attempts (6.0) and the 4th most rushing yards (32) to opposing QBs. They did so while going up against QBs (two of three) not necessarily known for their rushing abilities: Michael Penix (6 for 21), CJ Stroud (4 for 27), and Tyrod Taylor (8 for 48). Hurts has rushed for 40+ yards in two of three games this season, and is third in the league in scrambles (11).

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts 40+ Rushing Yards (-140)

RB Saquon Barkley

When is it time to start worrying about Barkley? He has just 194 rushing yards through the first three weeks – a number he eclipsed in two games alone in 2024 – and is on pace for 1,099 rushing yards. This week, he faces the always tough Buccaneers rush defence, which is allowing the third fewest (52) rushing yards per game. The Buccaneers are seeing their greatest success when running man/gap scheme, allowing the lowest yards per carry (1.42) in the league. Barkley has also been struggling against the scheme, averaging just 2.92 yards per carry. If Lane Johnson is out for this matchup, that doesn't bode well for Saquon in the matchup. However, that might mean he could be an asset in the receiving game. Through the air, the Buccaneers get exposed, as they allow the 9th most receptions (5.0) and the second most receiving yards (71.3) per game this season. Receiving hasn't been Barkley's strong suit, but he's been getting more involved this season, catching 10 of his 12 targets for 39 receiving yards. If the Eagles are without Johnson, that would put Hurts under pressure a lot more, needing to find a quick dump-off in Saquon to get him out of trouble.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley o15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Barkley 20+ Receiving Yards (+135)

Barkley 30+ Receiving Yards (+300)

WR AJ Brown

It only took 10 quarters, but Brown was finally unlocked last week against the Rams. Brown caught six of 10 targets for 109 receiving yards and a TD – which was the exact same stat line he had in Week 12 against the Rams in 2024. This week, Brown will face off against the Buccaneers, who have historically been poor against WRs, but have cleaned up their act in 2025. So far this season, the Buccaneers are allowing the 15th-most receptions (12.3) and the 11th-fewest receiving yards (127.3) despite seeing the 9th-most targets (21). Against Cover 3 this season, Brown has caught four of his five targets for 60 yards – good for a 15.0 yards per reception. Brown lines up wide 91% of the time this season, which doesn't bode well for him in this matchup. The Buccaneers allow the fourth-lowest catch rate (50%), and the eighth most receiving yards (79.3) and yards per reception (11.3) per game to outside WRs. While he might see a tough matchup as an outside WR, he should draw the Zyon McCollum matchup. McCollum has allowed 50+ receiving yards in back-to-back games. With that in mind, along with us thinking that Hurts may have unlocked something in Brown last week, we're going straight back to him in what should be a back-and-forth game.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown 60+ Receiving Yards (-145)

WR Devonta Smith

Smith had his best game of the season last week, catching eight of his 10 targets for 60 receiving yards and a TD. We've discussed Tampa Bay being a more difficult team to throw against, but let's really think about the matchups they had. The Falcons and a young Penix, Stroud and the Texans with their struggling offence, and the Jets with a backup Taylor. So, are they really a team to shy away from? Especially with a high-flying Eagles offence? Probably not. Against Cover 3, Smith has just 36 receiving yards, but has caught five of his seven targets this season. Smith also lines up in the slot 64.6% of the time. While the Buccaneers are good against outside WRs, they struggle to limit receptions to slot WRs, allowing the fifth-highest catch (77.1%). Smith should see a lot of Jacob Parrish, who has allowed an 87.5% catch rate on eight targets this season.

Suggested pick:

DeVonta Smith o4.5 Receptions (-115)

TE Dallas Goedert

After returning from injury, Goedert had a relatively quiet day, finishing with just one catch on two targets. However, he made the most of his one catch, taking it 33 yards for a TD. While that was good, earning just a 6.3% target share while playing 90.5% of the snaps was not. We might see more of that this week against the Buccaneers, who allow the 10th-fewest receptions (4.7) and the 7th-fewest receiving yards (35.3) per game to opposing TEs. Where he has a little bit of hope is that he runs most of his routes from the slot (58.3%) opposite of Smith. However, with Brown and Smith in the 2024 regular season, Goedert saw his targets dip to 3.5, compared to 6.0 without one of those receivers. With all hands on deck and a more difficult TE matchup, we might see a low-volume game as we saw last week, especially with him still recovering from injury.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert u3.5 Receptions (-115)

Buccaneers Team Overview

QB Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield may be listed as questionable on the injury report, but there's no way on God's green earth he is going to miss Sunday's game against the Eagles in the battle of the two unbeaten teams. The Bucs starting QB will be without Mike Evans who sustained a hamstring injury last week, but he's getting back Chris Godwin and most importantly, all-pro RT Tristan Wirfs. Tampa Bay's o-line is still banged up, but getting Wirfs back in a huge shot in the arm for a team who has dealth with a myriad of injuries. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are no stranger to Philadelphia and if you are a die-hard fan of either team I don't need to tell you how angry the Eagles inner circle is about having to play a 5th straight H2H game at Raymond James Stadium. Not including playoff games, this Sunday will mark 3rd consecutive time the Buccaneers and Eagles will meet in the regular season, and for the 3rd straight year this game will be in Tampa. The Bucs have won 4 of the L5 meetings vs PHI, and the last 2 haven't been close with Tampa Bay winning 33-16 and 32-9. Mayfield will not have a full compliment of weapons but he knows the Eagles well. The Eagles primarily run Cover-1 (25.0%), Cover-3 (24.1%) and Cover-4 (21.3%) for 70.4% of its defensive plays. Against these coverages Mayfield is 45 of 75 (60% CMP) for 445 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT. These two teams have seen each other 3x in the last 3 years, but the one area Baker Mayfield has been consistently good all year is creating yards with his legs. The Eagles rank near the middle of the pack in RYA to opposing QB's, but they've only faced one running quarterback and that was Patrick Mahomes who ran for 66 yards. Baker has ran for 39, 33 and 44 yards through the first 3 weeks of the season. He is as tough as they come and will do whatever is need to move the chains.

Suggested Pick:

Baker Mayfield 15+ Rush Yards (-162)

Baker Mayfield 25 + ALT Rush Yards (+159)

RB Bucky Irving

Bucky Irving has seen his touches increase with each and every week as the Bucs offense continues to work through its injury woes. Irving has had 18, 23 and 29 touches out of the backfield to begin the season, and I think he will see a lot of action this Sunday against a Philadelphia defense that is allowing 4.7 YPC (6th most) to opposing RB's with just a 54% success rate (2nd worst) agains those runs. The Eagles run-defense has allowed either a 1st down or a touchdown on 32% (2nd worst) of those attempts. I think we're going to see an old-fashioned game of smash mouth football here, which is going to include Rachaad White getting some carries. Irving has also caught at least 4 balls in each of his first 3 games, but this is one area where the Eagles have been strong. They've only allowed 7 receptions for 35 yards through the first 3 weeks of the season.

Suggested Pick:

Bucky Irving 60+ Rush Yards (-150)

Bucky Irving Anytime TD (+115)

WR Emeka Egbuka

With Mike Evans out for the next 2-3 weeks, the spotlight will be squarely on Bucs rookie WR Emeka Egbuka. Egbuka's volume has not been anywhere near what he has churned out production wise, but we saw a really good sign last week when Emeka saw a 28.5% target share last week. In addtion, after being targeted on 17% and 16% of his routes to begin the '25 season, Mayfield looked Egbuka's way on 35% of his routes last week. There's no easy matchup when you face the Eagles who are allowing just 7.0 YPT to WRs, but Egbuka seems to make a big play each and every week.

Suggested Pick:

Emeka Egbuka Receptions (Player Props TBD)

WR Chris Godwin

Chris Godwin will make his long awaited return for Tampa Bay in week 4, but he's not going to be playing full-time on Sunday and will split reps with Sterling Shepard. What makes either of these a tough sell is there's no Mike Evans to draw attention away. Philadelphia is a perimeter funnel vs outside receivers and they've shut down the slot to an extent no other team has so far this seaons. It's for this reason why I have no interest in either Godwin or Shepard who will be matched up against Cooper DeJean on Sunday.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

WR Cade Otton

Cade Otton could be a sneaky play this Sunday. He's only caught 3 of 7 targets for 25 yards all season, but he's ran a route on nearly 89% of Baker Mayfield's dropbacks. The Eagles are allowing only 4.0 YPT (Lowest in NFL) to opposing TE's, along with a 50% catch-rate. With all that laid bare, there are 2 reasons why I think Otton could be a major factor this week. First, the Eagles have had major issues defending him the last 2 times they've met. In those 2 games, Otton has posted 8-89-0 and 9-56-0 while seeing 11 and 9 targets respectively. And secondly, Otton had the best stretch of his career when the Bucs WR corps was decimated last year. Within the 4-week period TB was missing both Evans and Godwin, Otton stepped up his game in a BIG way vs. Baltimore (8-100-0), vs. Atlanta (9-81-2 TD), @ KC (8-77-TD) and vs. SF (8-35-0). Just the fact that Otton is fully healthy and there are no props yet listed for him in the books is a major red flag pointing to his having a big game on Sunday.

Suggested Pick:

Cade Otton Receiving Yards (Player Props TBD)

Cade Otton Receptions (Player Props TBD)

Game Prediction

Jalen Hurts has won 17 straight games and he will be running into a tough Buccaneers squad. Now it might be a blessing in disguise for the Eagles to keep the streak alive as Mike Evans is out and last year in 4 games he missed TB went 0-4 and 0-3 @Home losing by 3,6,5,10 and the total ended 43,54,57,72. Give me the Over here and I lean the Eagles to win and Hurts to get win #18 straight

Best Bet Over 42.5 -148
Lean Eagles ML -185
Score Prediction Eagles 30 Buccaneers 27

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick (Eagles): Jalen Hurts -145

I'm sorry to keep taking Hurts' TD prop, but the man just continues to find the end zone, and until he doesn't, we're going to keep taking it. Hurts has four TDs on the year, with at least one every week. Even last season against the Buccaneers, Hurts found the end zone. Dating back even further, Hurts has four TDs in five career games against Tampa Bay.

Best Pick (Buccaneers): Bucky Irving +115

Bucky Irving had 29 touches last week against the Jets, and I expect him to serve as a nice security blanket for Baker Mayfield this Sunday. Irving has great hands both carrying and catching the ball, and Todd Bowles has a lot of trust in the 2nd year RB. He'll be facing an Eagles defense who has just a 51.0% success-rate (3rd lowest) against the run so far in '25.

1st Touchdown

Best Pick (Eagles): AJ Brown +800

Brown found the end zone for the first time this season last week, which is pretty important, as he was a streaky scorer in 2024. In 17 games (regular- and post-season) last year, Brown had a TD in nine of those games. And all but one of those games saw Brown not score the following week. He had TD stretches of multiple weeks: 1, 6 & 7 (as he dealt with injury), 15, 16 & 17, as well as the NFC Championship and Super Bowl. If Hurts wants the chemistry going with Brown, they could get off to a hot start and find the end zone early.

Best Pick (Buccaneers): Cade Otton +2000

My absolute favorite longshot of the week, and history shows he's in a great spot here. Otton has caught only 3 balls for 25 yards on 7 total targets this year, but in his L2 games vs PHI he's caught 17 balls for 146 yards. The Bucs will be without Mike Evans on Sunday, and Chris Godwin is returning but will be worked in gradually. Last year, when Tampa Bay's WRs were on life support, Otton came out of nowhere during a 4-week period that saw him haul in 33 passes for 293 yards and 3 TD's.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1: (Eagles) +350 odds on bet365

Philadelphia Eagles ML

Jalen Hurts 40+ Rushing Yards

Devonta Smith 5+ Receptions

Parlay #2: (Buccaneers) TBD

Awaiting Player Prop Lines

Browns Team Overview

QB Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco opened the season throwing the ball relentlessly, attempting 45 passes in back-to-back starts. But the efficiency hasn’t been there, and his passing yards have declined each week from 290 to 199 to just 142 in the upset over the Packers. Against Green Bay, Flacco managed only 3.9 yards per attempt and threw another interception, showing how this passing game is struggling to find rhythm. The veteran’s arm is still capable of testing secondaries vertically, but the Lions’ defense thrives against quarterbacks who can’t escape pressure, and Flacco’s mobility has never been his strong suit.

Detroit plays man coverage at the fourth-highest rate (38.6%), and Flacco has been particularly poor against it this year, averaging only 4.63 yards per attempt with a passer rating under 50 on those throws. The Lions have given up multiple touchdown passes in each of their games so far, but they’ve done well keeping yardage totals modest — holding Lamar Jackson, Caleb Williams, and Jordan Love all under 250 passing yards. With Detroit’s front generating pressure and Cleveland leaning heavily on the ground game behind Quinshon Judkins, Flacco’s ceiling is limited. Expect another low-output performance through the air.

Suggested Play:
'U' 215.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Quinshon Judkins

Quinshon Judkins has wasted no time establishing himself as Cleveland’s lead back. Against Green Bay, he handled 18 of the team’s 19 RB carries, racking up 94 yards and punching in a touchdown, while also adding a small contribution as a receiver. His physical running style and patience behind blocks give the Browns’ offense stability, and he’s clearly become the engine of this unit. Detroit’s defense will be a tougher test, but the matchup isn’t without opportunity. The Lions allow 4.1 yards per carry and rank fifth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.33), showing they can be moved off the ball by a disciplined rushing attack. The Lions just held Derrick Henry in check overall, but he still managed to find the end zone on a short-yardage plunge, which is exactly the type of situation Judkins thrives in. With Cleveland’s passing game sputtering under Flacco, the Browns are going to ride Judkins heavily to control time of possession and limit mistakes. If they get inside the 10, he’s the clear favorite for touches. His role as the goal-line hammer gives him a strong chance to keep his touchdown streak alive.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+105)

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy’s stat line against the Packers was ugly — just one catch for 17 yards on five targets — but he still ran routes on over 80% of dropbacks and remains a core piece of the Browns’ passing attack. He’s too talented to be silenced consistently, and this matchup with Detroit presents a chance for a rebound. The Lions lean on man coverage nearly 40% of the time, a look where Jeudy has struggled so far this year with less than 1 yard per route run. But Detroit has been more vulnerable to perimeter receivers than slot options, allowing the fourth-most yards per route run (2.66) to wideouts aligned outside. The Lions showed they can take away a dynamic rookie in Zay Flowers last week, but their coverage has been less consistent when tasked with experienced route runners. Jeudy’s ability to win with precision on slants, digs, and outs makes him the best bet to exploit single coverage, especially if Detroit stacks the box to slow Judkins. With Cedric Tillman banged up, the Browns need Jeudy to be the chain-mover on the perimeter, and volume alone should put him in position to climb past this yardage mark.

Suggested Play:
'O' 48.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Cedric Tillman

Cedric Tillman has been nursing multiple injuries this week, logging only limited practice participation. While he has flashed big-play ability early in the season and scored in each of his first two games, his status makes him too risky to back confidently in this matchup. Even if he suits up, a reduced role or limited snap count would be likely. Best to pass here and monitor his health before considering any wagers.

Suggested Play:
Pass

TE David Njoku

David Njoku hasn’t posted a breakout performance yet this season, but his role in the offense has been steady. He finished second on the team in route participation last week at 74% and remains a reliable short-to-intermediate target for Joe Flacco. With Cleveland’s outside receivers struggling to separate and Tillman questionable, Njoku may be the safety blanket needed to keep drives alive. The Lions play man coverage at a high rate, and Njoku has held his own against those looks with 1.00 yards per route run across 35 opportunities. Detroit has been quietly vulnerable to tight ends, allowing 54.7 yards per game to the position, ranking 12th-most in the league. Just last week, Mark Andrews torched them for 91 yards and 2 touchdowns, proving that mismatches at tight end can hurt this defense. While Njoku isn’t as explosive as Andrews, he has the athletic profile to win seam routes and quick-breaking outs against linebackers. If the Browns fall behind and need to lean on the pass more than usual, Njoku could be the one who benefits most.

Suggested Play:
'O' 37.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Lions Team Overview

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff didn’t need to air it out much in Detroit’s impressive win over Baltimore, attempting only 28 passes as the ground game completely controlled the matchup. Still, he completed 20 of those throws with efficiency, hitting 7.2 yards per attempt and keeping the offense on schedule. Outside of his explosion against the Bears in Week 2, Goff has logged a pair of single-touchdown outings, but his accuracy and decision-making remain strong. He ranks second in clean pocket passer rating (134.5), which is crucial against a Browns defense that thrives when pressure lands. Cleveland plays man coverage at the third-highest rate (42.4%), a look where Goff has been comfortable — averaging 7.1 YPA and a 114.8 passer rating on 18 attempts against it. The Browns have been tough on yardage, allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game at 173.7, but they’ve also given up the fifth-most passing touchdowns (2.0 per game). That bend-don’t-break pattern means teams don’t often rack up big yardage totals, but scoring chances in the red zone are there. Goff’s chemistry with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta gives him dependable short-area weapons, while Gibbs can create mismatches on linebackers. Even against a stingy pass defense, Detroit’s efficiency and play-calling creativity put Goff in position to cash in multiple scores.

Suggested Play:
'O' 1.5 Pass Touchdowns (-117)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs has shown that his impact goes well beyond rushing attempts, and last week’s performance against Baltimore highlighted his dual-threat role. He handled 22 carries for 67 yards and 2 touchdowns while also catching 5 passes for 32 yards. That receiving involvement matters a lot here, as Cleveland fields the league’s toughest front against the run. They allow the fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt (.33) and the fewest rushing yards per game (42.7). Josh Jacobs, one of the league’s most punishing backs, was held to just 30 yards on 16 carries last week. That forces backs to matter in the passing game, and Gibbs is exactly the type of player who can challenge Cleveland’s linebackers in space. His ability to motion out wide or run angle routes makes him a consistent outlet for Goff when pressure arrives. With Detroit’s offensive line tested by Myles Garrett and company, Gibbs’ receiving usage projects to be more important than his traditional rushing efficiency. Expect the Lions to lean on his versatility to keep the chains moving.

Suggested Play:
'O' 3.5 Receptions (-135)

RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery stole the spotlight against the Ravens, breaking off 151 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 12 carries, an absurd 12.6 yards per attempt. He showcased great vision and burst, capitalizing on Baltimore’s inability to set the edge or rally in the second level. That kind of production won’t repeat this week against a Cleveland defense that has been dominant against the run. They’ve given up only 42.7 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields, holding elite names like Josh Jacobs to 1.9 yards per carry last week. Montgomery thrives in zone concepts, but Cleveland has allowed the second-lowest zone rushing success rate in the NFL. His volume is already capped by Gibbs’ role as the lead option, and with the Browns presenting a massive upgrade in run defense compared to the Ravens, Montgomery is unlikely to see open lanes consistently. He may still play a role in red-zone carries, but the efficiency he enjoyed last week should take a significant dip here.

Suggested Play:
'U' 48.5 Rush Yards (-115)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Even on a night when Detroit leaned on its running game, Amon-Ra St. Brown still found ways to make an impact, catching 7 balls for 77 yards and a touchdown. That consistency is his calling card — he’s topped 5 receptions in 13 of his last 14 games and rarely disappears from the game plan. His ability to separate underneath and sit in soft spots makes him a perfect counter to aggressive fronts like Cleveland’s, which rank top five in pressure rate. The challenge is that the Browns have been suffocating against slot receivers, allowing the fewest receptions (9 total through three weeks) and the second-fewest yards (37.3 per game) to players lined up inside. But St. Brown isn’t a typical slot receiver. He ranks seventh in average separation score and fifth in win rate among wideouts who’ve run at least 75 routes, showing his ability to shake defenders even against tighter man looks. Cleveland will almost certainly scheme to limit big plays outside, which only increases the likelihood Goff peppers his top target in quick-hitting fashion.

Suggested Play:

'O' 5.5 Receptions (-135)

TE Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta’s stat line against Baltimore wasn’t flashy — 4 catches for 33 yards — but the details matter. All three of his early catches came on third down conversions, underscoring just how much trust Jared Goff and this offense place in him when plays matter most. He hasn’t scored yet this season despite being one of the league’s most efficient red-zone tight ends as a rookie, and regression is due. The Browns, for all their dominance, haven’t been airtight against tight ends. Tucker Kraft, playing through injury, still found space for 29 yards last week. Cleveland runs man coverage at a top-three rate, and LaPorta has been steady against those looks, averaging 1.11 YPRR and a .22 target per route run rate. His size, route running, and reliability in contested catches make him one of the toughest covers in the short-to-intermediate middle of the field — the exact spot where Cleveland’s linebackers can be targeted. In a game where the Lions may struggle to move the ball on the ground, LaPorta has a strong chance to be the difference-maker in the red zone.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+210)

Game Prediction

I don't see much resistance from this Browns' secondary here on Goff and the Lions offense that found its rhythm after a disappointing Week 1 loss to the Packers, especially considering its man heavy coverage scheme plays right into the hands of these WRs. The Browns were able to establish some rhythm behind Quinshon Judkins vs. the Packers last week, but against the Lions. That is unlikely to repeat.

Best Bet: Lions -9.5
Lean: 'O' 44.5
Score Prediction: Lions 34 Browns 16

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (Lions) Sam LaPorta +210

Cleveland runs man coverage at a top-three rate, and LaPorta has been steady against those looks, averaging 1.11 YPRR and a .22 target per route run rate. His size, route running, and reliability in contested catches make him one of the toughest covers in the short-to-intermediate middle of the field — the exact spot where Cleveland’s linebackers can be targeted. In a game where the Lions may struggle to move the ball on the ground, LaPorta has a strong chance to be the difference-maker in the red zone.

Best Bet: (Browns) Quinshon Judkins +105

Quinshon Judkins has wasted no time establishing himself as Cleveland’s lead back. Against Green Bay, he handled 18 of the team’s 19 RB carries, racking up 94 yards and punching in a touchdown, while also adding a small contribution as a receiver. His physical running style and patience behind blocks give the Browns’ offense stability, and he’s clearly become the engine of this unit. Detroit’s defense will be a tougher test, but the matchup isn’t without opportunity. The Lions allow 4.1 yards per carry and rank fifth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.33), showing they can be moved off the ball by a disciplined rushing attack. The Lions just held Derrick Henry in check overall, but he still managed to find the end zone on a short-yardage plunge, which is exactly the type of situation Judkins thrives in. With Cleveland’s passing game sputtering under Flacco, the Browns are going to ride Judkins heavily to control time of possession and limit mistakes. If they get inside the 10, he’s the clear favorite for touches. His role as the goal-line hammer gives him a strong chance to keep his touchdown streak alive.

1st Touchdown

Longshot: (Lions) Amon-Ra St. Brown +565

Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to be the engine of Detroit’s passing game, and his performance against Baltimore was another reminder of how reliable he is. He hauled in 7 receptions for 77 yards and scored the late dagger touchdown, once again proving to be Jared Goff’s go-to target when the offense needs a spark. St. Brown has reached at least 5 catches in 13 of his last 14 games, and his ability to separate quickly underneath makes him the perfect option to script early plays around. Against Cleveland’s aggressive pass rush, expect Goff to lean heavily on his most trusted receiver to establish rhythm from the opening drive.

Longshot: (Browns) David Njoku +1600

The Lions have been one of the league’s most generous defenses to tight ends so far, giving up 54.7 yards per game to the position and allowing Mark Andrews to explode for 91 yards and two touchdowns just last week. That vulnerability in the middle of the field is where Njoku operates best, using his athleticism to create separation and present Flacco with a high-percentage target. Cleveland has leaned heavily on Quinshon Judkins near the goal line, but against a stout Lions front, it may be Njoku who sneaks free off play-action to deliver the first strike.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1: (Lions) +476

Jared Goff 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs
Jahmyr Gibbs 'O' 62.5 Rush Yards
David Montgomery 'U' 48.5 Rush Yards

Parlay #2: (Browns) +297
Quinshon Judkins ATD
Joe Flacco 'U' 215.5 Pass Yards

Panthers Team Overview

QB Bryce Young

There’s no way to try and sugar coat this, so I’m just going to come out and say it. I would stay away from just about every Carolina Panthers prop this weekend. They’re coming off a 30-0 shutout of Atlanta and will be playing on the road this Sunday in Foxboro against the Patriots. Not only will Bryce Young be playing at New England, but his offense looks like the walking dead right now. The Panthers have placed starting center Austin Corbett and starting guard Rob Hunt on the IR. Now, the skill players are among the latest who are wounded in CAR as starting TE Ja’Tavion Sanders has been ruled out for Sunday, and #1 RB Chubba Hubbard and #1 WR Tetairoa McMillan are both listed as questionable. Bryce Young doesn’t have the experience or talent level to put the team on his back. He’s tied for 26th in EPA and he ranks 22nd in passing grade among 34 QBs who have at least 40+ dropbacks this season. Atlanta played so poorly last week that Young wasn’t called upon to do much, and it’s a good thing because the Panthers rank 30th in YPP (4.3). Carolina’s best shot at getting a victory this weekend is to pray for a repeat, 5-turnover performance out of the Pats.

Suggested Bet:

Bryce Young 1+ Interceptions (-143)

RB Chubba Hubbard

Chubba Hubbard (calf) is listed as questionable for week 4. Hubbard carried the ball 17 times for 73 yards last Sunday in the Panthers victory over ATL. It goes without saying that this is not a matchup that I like for Hubbard. After 3 weeks, New England has allowed the 2nd fewest rushing YPG to opposing RB’s (49.0/gm). Hubbard is averaging 17.7 touches per week, handling 75.0% of workload out of the backfield, but with Hubbard nursing a sore calf and Carolina down two starting offensive linemen, he is a very risky play. If you want to take a chance, the one area he could be relied upon is in the passing game. Hubbard has logged 14 targets (5, 6 and 3) in the first 3 weeks, catching 10 of those for 74 yards and 2 TD. This has been a spot of weakness for New England who has allowed 19 receptions to opposing RBs (5th most in NFL) for a total of 156 yards (5th most in NFL). Be careful and keep an eye on his status for Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Chubba Hubbard (Props not yet available)

WR Tetairoa McMillan

Tetairoa McMillan also comes into this game banged up, but the latest word is that he is expected to play. He is the one reliable skill position player you can count on. He leads the Panthers in both target-rate (24.5%) and air yards (36.2%), while lining up out wide on 85% of his snaps. The only negative for McMillan is that Bryce Young throws 52% of his passes between the numbers (6th highest rate) as compared to 32% (31st) outside the numbers. The key element in this game will be the status of Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez. He had the 10th best coverage grade last season and allowed the 4th lowest QB rating (70.5%) on targets coming in his direction. He is without a doubt the kind of player who can change the entire game. If Gonzalez is back, I am most likely avoiding McMillan but if NE sits him out for week 4, then I’m proceeding with the Carolina WR, who should see a major uptick in his production.

Suggested Bet:

Tetairoa McMillan 60+ Receiving Yards (-146)

Tetairoa McMillan 5+ Receptions (-142)

WR Hunter Renfroe

Hunter Renfroe is officially off of the injury report heading into week 5, but reports are increasingly surfacing that Renfroe has been a distraction in the Panthers locker room over his lack of usage. There have also been talks surrounding him dealing with personal issues. He did not practice at all on Wednesday, but it appears he will play on Sunday. Renfroe has been wildly inconsistent this season. In week 1 he grabbed 2 of 6 targets for 11 yards, then followed it up by hauling in 7 of 9 targets for 49 yards w/ 2 TD, but last week he caught just 2 of 4 passes for 6 yards. The fact that Renfroe is not on the injury report and the books still have no props listed for him in a major concern for me. A repeat from week 2 is always possible, but there are too many negative intangibles to put any stock into a #2 wide receiver who plays for the Panthers.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

TE Tommy Tremble/Mitchell Evans

With Ja’Tavion Sanders out, Carolina’s TE duties will most likely be split by Tommy Tremble and Mitchell Evans. The two Panthers tight ends have combined for only 8 targets this year. With the offensive line in shambles, its assumed that both Tremble and Evans will be needed to offer extra pass and run blocking protections up front. The Panthers offense is just too bad to throw a dart at either one of these players.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

Patriots Team Overview

QB Drake Maye

Drake Maye is 5^th in the league in passing yards, averaging 261.7 passing yards per game, 7.41 YPA and a 72.6% completion rate. He’s also averaging 7 rush attempts and 29 yards on the ground. Maye has just a 6.7-yard average depth of target, ranking 27^th highest amongst qualifying QBs (50+ dropbacks). He’ll face a Panthers defense that surprisingly ranks 6^th toughest in EPA/Pass allowed. Small sample size, I’m not buying the elite pass defense after they ranked 2^nd worst last season, but they more than likely improved a lot. The Panthers have forced the lowest pressure rate in the league (20.6%). Maye is averaging 7.68 YPA, an 81% completion rate and 5 TDs when not pressured, compared to 6.59 YPA, a 48.1% completion rate and 0 TDs when pressured. The Panthers have run Cover 3 at the 2^nd highest rate to start the season (44.9%). They ranked 3^rd highest in frequency last season. Maye is averaging 7.29 YPA and a 70.7% completion rate on 53 dropbacks vs Cover 3 this season. The Panthers pass defense has been tough to start the season, but it’s a small sample size and Maye’s team total is the highest of his career to date. Considering the Panthers have the lowest pressure rate and play mostly zone defense (84.1% frequency), I’m not inclined to take Maye’s rushing yards.

Suggested Pick:

Over 208.5 Passing Yards (-114)

225+ Passing Yards (+110)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

In week 3, Rhamondre fumbled not once, but twice. His 2^nd fumble came early in the 2^nd half, and he played just 5 snaps after that. On Friday, coach Vrabel said that Rhamondre isn’t on any sort of discipline heading into week 4. However, practice footage earlier in the week had Rhamondre last in the pecking order, so we’ll see what coach Vrabel ends up doing here. Stevenson is averaging 29 rushing yards per game and 48 receiving yards per game. He’ll face a Panthers defense that ranks 8^th worst in EPA/Rush through 3 games. They ranked 2^nd worst last season. Hard to trust Stevenson this week, if anything, I lean under based on expected role. I’m not buying the coach speak.

Suggested Pick:

Under 31.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

RB Treveyon Henderson

We saw much of the same low usage in week 3 for the Patriots rookie RB, until Rhamondre fumbled twice and Gibson once. After the 3 fumbles, Treveyon received an 84% snap share, 90% of the rush attempts and a 71% route participation rate. He was also first in the pecking order in video footage of practice to start week 4. There is still risk in assuming a larger role for TreVeyon, but this is a perfect matchup for a potential breakout. The Panthers rank 8^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed this season after ranking 2^nd worst last season. They rank 3^rd worst in yards after contact per attempt and the 4^th worst in yards before contact per attempt. They have also allowed the 6^th most explosive run yards. TreVeyon has yet to break one in his NFL regular season career, but he was known for explosive plays in college. As 5.5-point favorites wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots lean more on the run than usual. From a receiving perspective, TreVeyon is averaging 3.7 receptions and 24.3 receiving yards per game despite his minimal role thus far. It’s hard to judge the receiving matchup in such little sample size, but Bijan had 39 receiving yards last week and Benson had 30 the week before. TreVeyon has already shown to be heavily involved in that department. If his role increases exponentially, he could be in for a massive breakout week.

Suggested Pick:

Over 56.5 Rush+Receiving Yards (-115)

75+ Rush+Receiving Yards (+230)

100+ Rush+Receiving Yards 750)

Anytime Touchdown (+165)

WR Stefon Diggs

After a 62.3% route rate in week 1, Diggs has been down to 46.7% and 55.3% respectively in the past 2 weeks. The Patriots have gone to a WR rotation. Diggs has gotten off to a slow start with the Patriots. He’s averaging 37.3 receiving yards per game, 1.53 YPRR, and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. He ranks 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 17.5%. He’ll matchup against a Panthers defense that has been surprisingly strong against the pass, ranking as the 6^th hardest matchup based on EPA/Pass allowed. They ranked as the 2^nd easiest matchup in this metric last season. The Panthers have forced the lowest pressure rate in the league (20.6%). When Maye has not been pressured, Diggs is averaging 2.00 YPRR and a 26% TPRR. The Panthers have run Cover 3 at the 2^nd highest rate to start the season (44.9%). They ranked 3^rd highest in frequency last season. Diggs is averaging 1.44 YPRR and 16% TPRR on 25 routes against Cover 3 this season. Diggs averaged 2.17 YPRR and 30% TPRR as a member of the Texans last year against Cover 3. Those are positive splits compared to 1.89 YPRR and 23% TPRR against all other coverages. I’m betting on a Diggs bounce back with depressed lines in week 4.

Suggested Pick:

Over 3.5 Receptions (-104)

Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

50+ Receiving Yards (+180)

60+ Receiving Yards (+300)

Anytime Touchdown (+240)

WR Kayshon Boutte

Boutte has had the most consistent role out of the Patriots WRs, leading the team with a 71.5% route rate through 3 weeks. However, after a 103-yard receiving game in week 1, Boutte has been held to 16 and 28 receiving yards respectively in the past 2 weeks. Overall, he’s 2^nd on the team in receiving, averaging 49 yards per game, 1.58 YPRR, and has been targeted on 13% of his routes. He’s 3^rd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 12.5%. He’ll matchup against a Panthers defense that has been surprisingly strong against the pass, ranking as the 6^th hardest matchup based on EPA/Pass allowed. They ranked as the 2^nd easiest matchup in this metric last season. The Panthers have forced the lowest pressure rate in the league (20.6%). When Maye has not been pressured this season, Boutte is averaging 2.46 YPRR and 21% TPRR. The Panthers have run Cover 3 at the 2^nd highest rate to start the season (44.9%). They ranked 3^rd highest in frequency last season. Boutte is averaging 1.85 YPRR and 18% TPRR on 40 routes against Cover 3 this season. Boutte averaged just 0.40 YPRR and 12% TPRR against Cover 3 last season. I’m fading Boutte this week.

Suggested Pick:

Under 28.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

TE Hunter Henry

Despite Hooper seeing more of a role in the passing game the past 2 weeks (43.3% and 42.6% route rate respectively), Henry’s role has remained consistent, averaging a 70% route rate through 3 weeks. Henry has had 2 boom weeks and 1 bust week to start the season. He leads the team in receiving, averaging 55 yards per game, 1.81 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. He’s 1^st on the team in 1^st-read rate at a modest 22.5%. He’ll matchup against a Panthers defense that has been surprisingly strong against the pass, ranking as the 6^th hardest matchup based on EPA/Pass allowed. They ranked as the 2^nd easiest matchup in this metric last season. The Panthers have forced the lowest pressure rate in the league (20.6%). When Maye has not been pressured this year, Henry is averaging 2.04 YPRR and 25% TPRR. The Panthers have run Cover 3 at the 2^nd highest rate to start the season (44.9%). They ranked 3^rd highest in frequency last season. Henry is averaging 2.10 YPRR and 21% TPRR on 42 routes against Cover 3 this season. Henry averaged just 1.25 YPRR and 15% TPRR against Cover 3 last season. I like Henry this week, but his lines are a bit inflated after his performance against the Steelers.

Suggested Pick:

Over 3.5 Receptions (-120)

Game Prediction

The Patriots should have won that game on the road in Pitt last week and the Panthers are coming off a monster 30-0 win. This is a perfect get right spot for the Patriots and a come back down the earth game for the Panthers. Patriots get a win

Best Bet Patriots -5.5 -108
Lean Panthers TT 'U' 19.5 -135
Score Prediction Panthers 14 Patriots 27

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Patriots) Treveyon Henderson +165

Rhamondre fumbled twice and Gibson fumbled once last weekend. This could be the week Henderson sees an increased role after that 4^th quarter was essentially his. He gets a great matchup against the Panthers, who are allowed the 3^rd most yards after contact per attempt and the 4^th most yards before contact per attempt. He’s also due for an explosive play like we saw in college and preseason, like the value!

Best Play (Panthers): Rico Dowdle +170

Chubba Hubbard has gottten the majority of the workload out of the backfield for Carolina, but he is dealing with a calf injury and remains questionable for Sunday. Even with a healthy Hubbard, Rico Dowdle has slowly been working his way into becoming the Panthers premier back at the goal-line. In fact, Dowdle leads CAR in goal-line carries this year. Hubbard or no Hubbard, Rico Dowdle has a good chance of getting into the end zone this Sunday in New England.

1st Touchdown Picks

Best Play (Patriots): Stefon Diggs +1200

Diggs has had a slow start to his Patriots tenure after coming back from ACL surgery. However, we have heard Drake Maye say that he wants to get him the ball so they may draw something up early, hence 1^st TD. Diggs scored 4 TDs in 8 games last season with the Texans, and I think it is only a matter of time before he finds the endzone for the first time with Maye throwing him the rock. The Panthers play a lot of Cover 3, which Diggs had positive splits against in a larger sample size last season.

Best Play (Panthers): Rico Dowdle +900

The line for Rico Dowdle to score the first TD in week 4 opened up at +1700 and it has already shrunk to +900. But this is still really good value for a player who is getting the lion share of goal-line carries for Carolina. Chubba Hubbbard is still questionable for this game as he's nursing a calf injury. The Panthers best chance at getting points in the red zone and near the goal-line is through its running game.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (Patriots): +750

Treveyon Henderson 75+ Rush+Receiving Yards

Treveyon Henderson Anytime Touchdown

Drake Maye 200+ Passing Yards

Parlay #2 (Panthers): +230

Bryce Young 1+ Interceptions

Tetairoa McMillan 60+ Receiving Yards

Tetairoa McMillan 5+ Receptions

Jaguars Team Overview

QB Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars' offense have been a significant disappointment this season, and despite Nick Bosa's absence for the San Francisco 49ers, Lawrence's outlook for this matchup remains bleak, making "under" bets on his passing props and a fade on his rushing attempts the most logical approach. Averaging just 23.3 points per game and 223.7 passing yards with a dismal 5.94 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a 70.3 passer rating, Lawrence has struggled immensely. His 55.8% completion rate is second-to-last in the league, compounded by a league-high 11.5% drop rate and an equally concerning 11.5% inaccurate throw rate. Furthermore, his 24.3% off-target rate on throws over 10 yards highlights deep-ball struggles. While the 49ers' pass rush will miss Bosa (who contributed to their 10th-ranked pass rush grading and 9th-best 36.6% pressure rate), they still boast a formidable defense that has allowed a meager 5.6 yards per pass attempt (3rd lowest) and 8.2 yards per completion (2nd lowest). Compounding Lawrence's woes, he ranks 25th in passing grading against two-high coverage shells, which the 49ers utilize at the 10th-highest rate. Given the potential for a negative game script and Lawrence's reluctance to use his legs this season (8 carries for 25 yards and a fumble), fading his rushing attempts and taking the "under" on his passing yardage, given his poor efficiency metrics and the challenging coverage scheme, appears to be the most prudent betting strategy.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Carries (-138)

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
Travis Etienne faces a challenging matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, making "under" bets on his rushing yardage and a fade on his touchdown prop the most sensible approach, despite his consistent volume. Etienne has opened the season with a solid 46 carries for 270 yards (5.9 YPC) and one touchdown, averaging an impressive 3.63 yards after contact per attempt, while also chipping in 5 catches for 31 yards. He maintains a clear RB1 role, commanding 65.5%, 57.1%, and 69.6% of backfield touches and playing over 54% of snaps in each game. While the 49ers' run defense ranks 22nd in rush defensive grading and allows a respectable 79.3 rushing yards per game, they have only surrendered one rushing touchdown all season. Etienne's efficiency, while good, doesn't always translate to explosive plays, as evidenced by his 6.5% explosive run rate (12th among qualified backs). The primary concern is the potential for a negative game script against a strong 49ers team, which could limit Etienne's rushing opportunities. Furthermore, his minimal involvement in the passing game (10.3 receiving yards per game on under 3 targets) reduces his floor in such a scenario. Therefore, while Etienne will see volume, the combination of a tough touchdown matchup, a potential negative game script, and his only moderate explosive run rate makes "under" bets on his rushing yards and a fade on his touchdown prop more appealing than expecting a breakout performance.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

RB Bhayshul Tuten
Bhayshul Tuten, having solidified his role as the clear RB2 for the Jaguars following Bigby's departure, presents a tempting "over" bet on his touchdown prop, despite an uncertain workload against the San Francisco 49ers. With 17 carries for 74 yards (4.4 YPC) and a touchdown, plus 2 catches for 32 yards and another score, Tuten has demonstrated a nose for the end zone. Crucially, he has already amassed five red zone touches despite limited playing time, indicating a clear preference for his usage near the goal line, consistent with his 5'9", 206-pound build. While he hasn't matched Etienne's efficiency (4.4 YPC vs. 5.9 YPC) or rushing grade (63 vs. 69.5), and there are no signs of an increased workload outside of an Etienne injury, his consistent red zone involvement is significant. Even against a 49ers defense that has allowed only one rushing touchdown all season, Tuten's specific goal-line role makes him a distinct threat. Given that his overall workload will likely remain limited, focusing solely on his high-leverage red zone opportunities makes an "over" bet on a Tuten touchdown a higher-value play than any rushing yardage or receptions props, as the Jaguars clearly trust him to punch it in when they get close.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown +280

WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr. has been a significant disappointment for the Jaguars this season, and despite some promising underlying metrics, his outlook against the San Francisco 49ers remains dim, making a "wait and see" approach the most sensible betting strategy. Through three weeks, Thomas has just 7 receptions for 115 yards and no touchdowns, despite a respectable 24 targets (21.2% target share), 36.6% air yards, 16.43 yards per reception, and 5.43 yards after the catch per reception, along with two end zone targets. These underlying stats hint at future potential, but his abysmal 29.2% catch rate and apparent lack of synergy with Trevor Lawrence (including giving up on anticipated hits) are major red flags. The 49ers, while not elite against wide receivers (allowing 7.5 YPT, 68.1% catch rate, 4.3% TD rate), are a solid unit that will not offer an easy path to a breakout. Given Lawrence's overall struggles and Thomas's current inefficiencies, it's difficult to back any "overs" for Thomas, even with his high target share. Conversely, the lines have likely adjusted downwards enough that "unders" also don't offer significant value, solidifying the recommendation to avoid betting on Thomas entirely until he demonstrates more consistent production and a better connection with his quarterback.

Suggested Picks
PASS

WR Travis Hunter
Travis Hunter, the Jaguars' intriguing two-way player, faces a significant challenge in projecting his offensive betting value against the San Francisco 49ers due to his split workload and specific offensive usage. Hunter has logged more defensive snaps (43) than offensive snaps (37) this season, inherently limiting his offensive upside. While he boasts 10 receptions on 16 targets for 76 yards and leads the team in YAC per reception (6.2), his 7.6 yards per reception without a touchdown highlights a lack of explosive production. He's primarily utilized in the short game (6.7 aDOT, similar to a tight end) and heavily involved in screens and crossing routes, which hasn't translated to consistent "over" results on his props. The 49ers' defense, while not impenetrable, will make it difficult for Hunter to break free for significant gains. Furthermore, his route participation has been under 65% in the last two weeks, a direct consequence of his defensive responsibilities. Given his growing defensive workload, limited route participation, and a short-area offensive role that struggles to generate big plays, "under" bets on Hunter's receiving yardage and a fade on any touchdown props appear to be the most prudent strategies, as his defensive duties will likely continue to cap his offensive output.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Brenton Strange
Brenton Strange, despite his encouraging recent involvement for the Jaguars, faces a tough path to significant yardage against the San Francisco 49ers, but his touchdown potential offers a intriguing "over" bet. Coming off a strong 6-reception, 62-yard performance that led the team for the second consecutive week, Strange is clearly a growing part of the offense. While the 49ers are generally middle-of-the-pack against tight ends, allowing 5 receptions per game (13th), 8 targets (8th), and 38 yards (10th fewest), they have notably conceded a touchdown to a tight end in each of their last two games (Juwan Johnson and Trey McBride). This vulnerability near the goal line, combined with Strange's excellent 81.3% catch rate, creates an opportunity. However, his limited 6.6 aDOT and 10.5 YPR, with no touchdowns or red zone targets yet this season, indicate he's primarily used in the short game, which limits his yardage upside against a stingy defense. Therefore, while his overall yardage prop might be a challenging "over" play due to the tough matchup and short-area usage, taking a shot on Strange to record his first touchdown of the season, leveraging the 49ers' recent struggles against tight end scores, presents a more calculated and higher-value bet.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown +340

49ers Team Overview

QB Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy’s return couldn’t come at a better time for San Francisco. Before missing two weeks, Purdy was sharp in his opener against Seattle, throwing for 277 yards on 35 attempts (7.9 YPA). He thrives on rhythm passing, using timing routes and precision to keep drives alive. Jacksonville presents an interesting challenge: they rank middle of the pack in yards allowed (225.0 per game) but have still given up 1.7 passing touchdowns per contest, showing they bend between the 20s but stiffen near the goal line. The Jaguars play zone on nearly 80% of snaps, one of the highest rates in the league, which plays into Purdy’s strengths. Zone looks give him opportunities to spread the ball and rely on players like Ricky Pearsall and Christian McCaffrey underneath. Pearsall, in particular, has been excellent against zone (213 yards on 96 routes), and his usage is likely to elevate Purdy’s yardage totals. Even if Jacksonville manages to limit red-zone scores, the expectation is that Purdy will be forced to keep throwing to move the ball. Given San Francisco’s balance and Jacksonville’s ability to slow the run, the game script leans heavily toward Purdy pushing past 243 yards.

Suggested Play:
'O' 243.5 Pass Yards (-115)

RB Christian McCaffery

Christian McCaffrey remains the focal point of this offense, but this is not the best matchup for him to dominate on the ground. He finished with 52 rushing yards on 17 carries last week, and the trends suggest more of the same here. Jacksonville has quietly been one of the league’s most disciplined run defenses, giving up the 6th fewest rushing yards per game (61.7). Their defensive front thrives at controlling gaps and forcing offenses to pass, ranking 4th in rushing success rate allowed. The Jaguars’ zone-heavy coverage often crowds the box on early downs, making it difficult for backs to get chunk yardage. McCaffrey will still see his usual heavy workload, but it’s far more likely that his impact comes in the passing game, where he caught 10 balls for 88 yards against Arizona. With his last three games falling short of this rushing line and Jacksonville’s defensive profile matching that weakness, McCaffrey’s best path to production is through receptions, not long runs. This sets up as a game where his efficiency on the ground stays modest.

Suggested Play:
'U' 75.5 Rush Yards (-115)
'U' 16.5 Yard Long Rush (-115)

WR Ricky Pearsall

Ricky Pearsall has become San Francisco’s most consistent receiving threat to start the season, with back-to-back 100-yard performances when Jauan Jennings has been sidelined. He’s operating as the clear deep and intermediate option, commanding an elite 51.8% share of the team’s air yards. Last week, he went for 117 yards on 11 targets. What makes this matchup appealing is how Jacksonville plays coverage: they are a top-10 zone defense, and Pearsall has excelled against zone. He’s run 96 routes against zone looks, catching 13 passes for 213 yards with a healthy 20.8% target rate. Zone coverage plays right into Pearsall’s strengths. He has a knack for finding soft spots between the linebackers and safeties and converting them into explosive gains. The Jaguars allow 138.7 receiving yards per game to wide receivers on the outside, which is where Pearsall runs most of his routes. If Jennings remains banged up, Pearsall’s target share could climb even further. With his current usage and efficiency, another 60+ yard game is well within reach.

Suggested Play:

'O' 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings is working back from an ankle injury, and while his health will need monitoring, his role when active is crystal clear — he’s the physical outside receiver Purdy looks for in contested situations. In Week 2, he paced the passing game with 89 yards and a touchdown on 9 targets, showing that he can step up when needed. Against Jacksonville, his usage could be critical in the red zone. The Jaguars have allowed the most receptions (34) to receivers aligned out wide, which fits directly into Jennings’ role. Jennings also flashed strong numbers against zone coverage in your chart — 101 yards on six catches across 56 zone routes, with a target rate of nearly 18%. Jacksonville will give him looks in the short and intermediate areas, and Purdy has no hesitation throwing his way in high-leverage spots. If Pearsall draws attention vertically, Jennings could be the one who wins on slants or fades inside the 10-yard line. For a player who thrives on physical matchups, this is a strong spot to find the end zone.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+185)

Game Prediction

I know in the game preview with the Jags is indicating fade this Jaguars team but I think this is a spot where we see an upset. The 49ers play on Thursday meanwhile the Jags have a whole week off and get an extra day playing on Monday Night. I think Purdy could be rusty in his first game back and him not having George Kittle is concerning. Also the 49ers lost Nick Bosa last week to an ACL injury and Jauan Jennings is questionable. Purdy was also 4-5 last year @Home so the Home Field advantage has not been there for this team. Give me the Jags in a 3 point win

Best Bet Jaguars +3.5 -110
Lean Under 46.5 -110
Score Prediction Jaguars 24 49ers 21

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (49ers) Jauan Jennings +185

Jauan Jennings could be a difference-maker if he’s cleared from his ankle injury. He’s been most effective working against zone coverage, where he’s already picked up over 100 yards this season by exploiting soft spots outside. The Jaguars’ defense leans on zone more than nearly any team in the league, and while they’ve limited yards per route overall, they’ve also given up more receptions to wideouts than anyone. That combination makes Jennings a logical red-zone target for Brock Purdy, especially with his size and physical style on contested throws.

Best Bet: (Jaguars) Bayshul Tuten +280
He has a couple of touchdowns on the season and fits more of the goal line role in this offense. This is a nice price for a guy that could easily take the one yard plunge or take one to the house.

1st Touchdown

Best Bet: (49ers) Christian McCaffery +425

Christian McCaffrey has opened games as San Francisco’s tone-setter all season, and this matchup sets him up for another early strike. Jacksonville’s defense has been stingy against the run overall, but they’ve struggled to close out early drives, allowing multiple opponents to punch in scores during opening possessions. McCaffrey dominates red-zone usage for the 49ers, and his versatility means he can finish drives on the ground or through quick passes against the Jaguars’ zone-heavy defense. With San Francisco likely scripting touches to get him involved right away, CMC is the most probable candidate to break the plane first.

Longshot: (Jaguars) Brenton Strange +2000

Strange doesn't have a redzone target yet, but is plenty involved in thid offense with the second most targets and receptions in this offense.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1: 49ers +296
Brock Purdy 'O' 243.5 Pass Yards

Ricky Pearsall 'O' 69.5 Receiving Yards

CMC 'U' 75.5 Rush Yards

Parlay #2 (Jaguars): +445
Bhayshul Tuten Touchdown
Bhayshul Tuten 15+ Rushing Yards
Trevor Lawrence 1+ Passing Touchdown

Colts Team Overview

Rams Team Overview

QB Matthew Stafford

Admittedly, Matthew Stafford has not played to the level many had hoped, but when you consider 2 of his 3 games have been on the road and he's faced 3 solid defenses the numbers aren't as bad as they may appear. The Rams will finally return home to take on the Colts this Sunday after two straight road games. I'm expecting a high scoring affair in Los Angeles and here's why I like Stafford this weekend. The veteran QB has operated from under center more than any other passer in the NFL to start the '25 season. This is important because the Colts do not get much pressure on opposing QBs with a pressure-rate of just 27.0% (5th lowest in NFL). When Matthew Stafford has a clean pocket he completing 76.7% of his passes for an average of 8.5 yard per attempt. We all know how good Puka Nacua is, but you could make the argument that he and Davante Adams are the best receiving duo in the league. They both have the ability to work in-line, outside and operate from the slot making it difficult on opposing defenses to defend them consistently. A lot of people are raving about the Indianapolis defense, but I think Sean McVay is going to expose them on Sunday. The Colts are allowing just 190.3 pass YPG (8th fewest), however they are giving up 21.3 completions per game (15th most) and this has come against MIA, DEN and TEN. It stands to reason they haven't faced a top tier WR yet, let alone two of them on the field at one time.

Suggested Bet:

Matthew Stafford 240+ Pass Yards (-147)

Matthew Stafford 270+ ALT Pass Yards (+141)

Matthew Stafford 300+ ALT Pass Yards (+294)

RB Kyren Williams

We predicted Kyren Williams to have a breakout game, finding the end zone and he did just that. The LA running back finished week 3 with 22 touches for 112 yards and a TD out of the backfield. Williams is still getting rougly 75% of the workload out of the Rams backfield, but Blake Corum is doing just enough to make us a little nervous about Williams production. The Colts have done a very good job in defending the run this year too. Throught the first 3 games of the season Indianapolis is allowing only 72.3 rush YPG to opposing running backs (12th fewest), including just 55 yards to De'Von Achane. This feels like a pass heavy game and McVay does not involve Williams much in the passing offense. In 3 games, Kyren has caught 5 of only 7 targets for a total of 35 yards. With Blake Corum starting to eat into some of Williams production I'm very hesitant and lack the confidence in backing him for a second straight week, but I still think he gets into the end zone in a game I'm expecting will light up the scoreboard.

Suggested Pick:

Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-195)

WR Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua continues to dominate for the Sean McVay and the Rams offense. We're just 3 games into the season and Nacua has already been targeted on 43% of passing routes. And why not, when he's hauling in 82.9% of his balls that are being thrown his way. Puka has caught 29 of his 35 targets for 333 yards and he's showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. That's especially relevant to his week 4 matchup against the Colts when you consider Nacua is being targeted on 52% of his routes when Stafford lines up under center. He is averaging 6.6 YPRR in these situations, and given the of Indianapolis pass rush it's scary to think what Puka could do this Sunday if this game becomes a shootout. One thing to consider for this week is that Davante Adams had a brutal matchup last week when he had to line up across Quinyon Mitchell’s shadow coverage. That resulted in a big increase in Nacua's targets, but he's still going to lead LAR receivers every week, just maybe not to the degree he did in his last game. Puka is a premier WR and even though he has yet to find the end zone, I will still continue to ride his yardage and reception totals until he gives me a reason not to.

Suggested Bet:

Puka Nacua 80+ Receiving Yards (-176)

Puka Nacua 8+ Receptions (-123)

WR Davante Adams

Davante Adams is listed as questionable for Sunday, but is expected to play despite a minor hamstring injury. Adams caught just 3 of the 8 targets that went his way last Sunday for 56 yards, but he made up for it by finding the end zone. When you consider he was being shadowed the entire game by Quinyon Mitchell this is still not a bad day at the office. Adams should see much more volume this Sunday in a game that has the makeup to see a lot of points. I'm expecting a lot more 3rd downs in this game seeing as we have two quality teams facing off. This is very important because as much as Nacua is involved in 1st and 2nd down situations, Adams thrives the most on 3rd down where he is getting targeted 41% of the time compared to Puka's 35%. It also shows you just how reliant Stafford is on both of his top receivers. I expect Adams usage to go way up this week and I think he finds the end zone so long as he doesn't tweak his hamstring during Sunday's game.

Suggested Pick:

Davante Adams 60+ Receiving Yards (-145)

Davante Adams 5+ Receptions (-160)

Davante Adams Anytime TD (+115)

TE Tyler Higbee

Tyler Higbee was on the injury report earlier this week, but all signs point to him being a go for Sunday. But that's also where he stops, and here's why. There are only 8 NFL wide receivers who have a 30% target share or better through the first 3 weeks of the '25 season, and 2 of them are on the Rams (Puka Nacua and Davante Adams). Higbee has seen just a 6.5% target-share to begin the season. Sad as it is to say, he's not even worth throwing a dart at right now.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

Game Prediction

Best Bet
Lean
Score Prediction

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Rams): Davante Adams +115

Davante Adams has been one of the most heavily involved WRs near the end zone. He is currently leading the league in both end zone and red zone targets. So far, he's been a little snake bit due to Matthew Stafford's inaccuracy but the Colts have the 5th lowest pressure-rate of any team in the NFL, and when Stafford has time to sit comfortably in the pocket he can pick apart an opposing team's defense. I am very confident in Adams hauling in a TD, and quite possibly a pair of them on Sunday.

1st Touchdown Picks

Best Play (Rams): Blake Corum +1800

Blake Corum is seeing a gradual increase in his number of reps with each passing week of the season. After getting just one carry for 2 yards to open the season he has totaled 13 carries for 97 yards in weeks 2 and 3 combined. Kyren Williams is still going to be the feature back, but Corum is good around the goal-line and if the right situation presents itself he could very well find himself in the end zone before anyone else on Sunday.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1 (Rams): +200

Matthew Stafford 240+ Pass Yards

Puka Nacua 80+ Receiving Yards

Davante Adams 5+ Receptions

Ravens Team Overview

QB Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson enters his pivotal matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs looking for a bounce-back performance, with his passing upside outweighing his potentially limited rushing output, making "over" bets on his passing touchdowns particularly appealing. Despite a tough loss to the Lions where he was sacked seven times and his rushing yardage was inflated by a meaningless drive, Jackson has been stellar through the air this season, throwing for 2+ touchdowns in all three games, boasting a remarkable 141.8 passer rating, a 78 QBR (3rd best), 9 total touchdowns, and zero interceptions. His elite 72% completion rate and 1.3% turnover-worthy throw rate underscore his efficiency. While Jackson has a history of rushing against the Chiefs, his ground game has been less prominent this season (just 118 yards over three games). This could be exacerbated by a Chiefs defense that, despite Bosa's absence, still poses a challenge. His past performance against Kansas City is also concerning, completing only 63% of passes for 6.7 Y/A and one touchdown in their Week 1 matchup last year. However, with injuries mounting on offense, Jackson's aerial prowess will be paramount. Given his exceptional passing efficiency and touchdown production this season, coupled with the need to overcome a rival and a struggling Chiefs offense, an "over" on his passing touchdowns is a strong play, as he's likely to lean on his arm to lead the Ravens to victory.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 18.5 Completions (-110)

RB Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry faces a surprisingly challenging matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs despite their seemingly low rush defense ranking, making an "under" bet on his rushing attempts the most strategic play. Henry has been slowed in recent weeks, managing just 50 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries in Week 3, and a mere 23 yards on 11 carries in Week 2. While the Chiefs' rush defense is ranked 29th overall, their actual production allowed tells a different story: they are middle-of-the-pack in rushing yards allowed (16th), have surrendered only two rushing touchdowns, and allow the 22nd highest yards per carry (3.89). Crucially, Kansas City has excelled at limiting explosive runs (1.2% explosive run rate), a key factor in containing Henry's game-breaking ability. Despite their 13th lowest stuff rate (42%), their capacity to prevent big plays is paramount. Henry's complete absence from the receiving game (2 receptions, 2 targets, 20 yards all season) further limits his floor in a potentially controlled game. Given the Chiefs' likely strategy to control time of possession with a short passing game, this will reduce Henry's opportunities. Therefore, while he might still reach his yardage total, betting "under" on his rushing attempts for the second consecutive week is the more prudent wager, as Spags' defense is likely to keep him in check and prevent the long runs that define his success.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 18.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

WR Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers, despite a quiet Week 3, is poised for a strong bounce-back performance against the Kansas City Chiefs, making "over" bets on his receptions a confident play. After two massive weeks to start the 2025 season, Flowers managed only 2 catches for 13 yards on 3 targets last week, but this low-volume outing is more of an anomaly than a trend given his role in the Ravens' offense. Historically against the Chiefs, Flowers has delivered impressive performances, including a 5-catch, 115-yard game on 8 targets and another with 6 catches for 37 yards on 10 targets. This consistent past volume against Kansas City bodes well for his prospects. The Chiefs' defense employs an even mix of zone and man coverage, and Flowers demonstrates remarkable consistency against both schemes: against man, he boasts a 10.5 aDOT, 30.5% air yardage share, 32.4% target rate, and 31.9% of team yards; against zone, these numbers are nearly identical with a 10.1 aDOT, 30% air yardage share, 26.3% target rate, and 32.1% of team yards. This versatility ensures he will be a primary target regardless of the Chiefs' defensive alignment. With Lamar Jackson likely to rely heavily on his passing game and Flowers being a consistent, scheme-proof option, the volume is something bettors can count on, making an "over" on his receptions prop a high-confidence wager in this pivotal rivalry game.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-136)

WR Rashod Bateman
Rashod Bateman, despite a promising Week 3 performance, faces an uphill battle for consistent volume against the Kansas City Chiefs, making an "over" bet on his receptions at 2.5 a somewhat risky proposition. Bateman finally delivered a good game last week, reeling in 5 catches for 63 yards and a touchdown on 7 targets, translating to a season-high 25.9% target rate per route run. He has solidified his position as the clear number two receiver in the Ravens' offense, ahead of rotation players like Hopkins, Wallace, and Walker, with 14 targets and 9 receptions on the season, boasting a 64.3% catch rate. Despite Devin Duvernay's name recognition, his limited 27 routes run through the first three weeks underscores Bateman's role. However, Bateman's profile as a possession receiver (9.8 YPR, 11.4 aDOT, 1.6 YAC per reception) means he relies heavily on target volume. The primary concern is that with Zay Flowers expected to command significant targets, and Mark Andrews also in the mix, Bateman's target share could fluctuate. While the Chiefs' secondary is not impenetrable, and Bateman's Week 3 uptick is encouraging, the potential for Flowers to dominate targets, coupled with Bateman's possession-receiver role, means that even hitting "over 2.5 receptions" requires a bit of a leap of faith, making it a shot rather than a confident wager.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-118)

TE Mark Andrews
Mark Andrews faces a truly formidable challenge against the Kansas City Chiefs, making an "under" bet on his receiving yards the most probable outcome, despite his Week 3 resurgence and clear red zone role. After a quiet start, Andrews roared back to life on Monday night, catching all 6 of his targets for 91 yards and two touchdowns, underscoring his elite talent and role as a primary end-zone threat. He's been heavily involved in the offense, averaging a solid 12.3 yards per reception despite an 8.8 aDOT, thanks to 3.6 yards after contact per reception, and he leads the team with three red zone targets. While Isaiah Likely's potential return might slightly ease Andrews' workload, he's likely to remain the exclusive primary tight end option for at least one more week. However, the Chiefs have been exceptionally stingy against tight ends this season, allowing the 5th fewest receiving yards per game (34), the 3rd fewest receptions (2.67), and the 2nd fewest targets (3.33). Crucially, they have yet to surrender a touchdown to a tight end. Given this historically tough matchup, and the Chiefs' proven ability to neutralize opposing tight ends, Andrews could indeed "disappear" outside of a few opportunistic red zone looks, making an "under" on his receiving yardage a strong play, even with his recent hot streak and touchdown upside.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Chiefs Team Overview

QB Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes has yet to truly unleash this season, throwing just one touchdown in each of the first three games while failing to crack 260 passing yards. Week 3 against the Giants was his quietest outing, finishing with 224 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. Even so, Kansas City continues to lean heavily on his arm, leading the NFL in pass rate over expectation (9.1%). The matchup with Baltimore will push Mahomes to keep that trend alive. The Ravens deploy man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the league (37.9%), where Mahomes has been somewhat contained (5.79 YPA, 74.5 passer rating, and negative CPOE across 38 attempts). But the larger story is Baltimore’s overall pass defense: they give up the fifth-most passing yards per game (271.3), and Josh Allen already ripped them for nearly 400 yards in Week 1. This game carries playoff-level urgency with both teams at 1-2, and Kansas City’s path to winning almost certainly runs through Mahomes’ ability to push the ball against this Ravens secondary. Expect a pass-heavy script and extra emphasis on red-zone execution after too many drives stalled early this season.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Pass Touchdowns (+100)

RB Kareem Hunt

Kareem Hunt’s workload has been modest, but his usage around the goal line makes him dangerous in this matchup. He logged 10 carries for 34 yards and a one-yard touchdown plunge against the Giants, along with a 10-yard reception on limited snaps. While Isiah Pacheco continues to handle the bulk of touches, Hunt has carved out the high-leverage role near the stripe, with back-to-back weeks of red-zone opportunities. Against a Ravens defense that’s allowing the most rushing yards per game to running backs (128.7) despite ranking top 12 in efficiency metrics like adjusted yards before contact, volume near the end zone matters more than efficiency. Kansas City’s offense has been too inconsistent to rely solely on big plays through the air, and the red-zone splits show Andy Reid trusts Hunt to punch it in when drives get close. With Mahomes under pressure to finish drives this week, Hunt has real upside to vulture another short score.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+205)

WR Xavier Worthy

Xavier Worthy’s season barely started before a shoulder injury forced him off the field in the opener, but he looks set to return this week. That’s big news for a Chiefs passing attack that’s lacked explosiveness outside of Travis Kelce. Worthy ended last season on fire with NFL-best postseason totals in receiving yards (287) and touchdowns (3), and he carried that momentum into a strong preseason. His ability to stretch defenses vertically changes how opponents can defend Mahomes, and his speed will be critical against a Ravens defense that plays man coverage at the fifth-highest rate. Worthy has already shown efficiency against man looks, averaging 2.47 YPRR in his limited NFL action, while Tyquan Thornton — who has filled in during his absence — has thrived in similar situations with 3.29 YPRR and .29 TPRR against man. Baltimore has been tested on the perimeter already, and while they’ve contained some downfield weapons, their secondary has been prone to lapses. If Worthy is indeed fully healthy, even three or four designed shots could be enough for him to clear a modest yardage total.

Suggested Play:
'O' 43.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

WR Hollywood Brown

Hollywood Brown’s Week 1 eruption against the Eagles (10/99) is starting to look like an outlier. Over the last two games, he’s managed just 9 catches for 72 yards combined, with efficiency slipping badly (9.0 yards per reception and just 6.8 yards per target). His underlying metrics against man coverage aren’t encouraging either: 1.03 YPRR and .24 TPRR across 38 routes against man, which happens to be Baltimore’s primary defensive look. If Xavier Worthy returns, Brown’s target share is likely to drop further, putting him in a secondary role in this offense. The Ravens have been content to funnel short completions but have largely neutralized secondary receiving threats. Jerry Jeudy managed just 4/51 last week in this matchup, a line that feels very much in play for Brown given his recent trends. Unless he hits one explosive play, he’s unlikely to see the volume needed to clear a higher reception total.

Suggested Play:
'U' 3.5 Receptions (+134)

TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce’s production has dipped in each of the first three weeks, with just 4 catches for 26 yards on 7 targets last time out. But this is exactly the type of spot where Kansas City leans on him. Even in a “down” year by his lofty standards, Kelce still leads all tight ends in win rate (13.8%) and ranks top 5 in separation score. Against man coverage, which Baltimore uses at one of the highest rates in the league, he’s posted 1.30 YPRR and a .16 TPRR — not elite, but steady enough given his role as Mahomes’ most trusted read. Baltimore has been stingy against tight ends statistically, but context matters: they haven’t faced anyone close to Kelce’s caliber. Sam LaPorta managed 4/33 last week in this matchup, and Kelce has already logged consistent target volume despite facing heavy defensive attention. With Kansas City needing to settle its red-zone struggles, the ball is likely to find Kelce in scoring range.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+190)

Game Prediction

KC is always a hard place to play and for them to be 3.5 point dogs I have to trust my gut and run with Mahomes to get the job done. Chiefs path to win is controling the clock and have a low scoring battle. Give me the Chiefs to win their 2nd game

Best Bet Chiefs +3.5 -125
Lean Under 48.5 +100
Score Prediction Ravens 20 Chiefs 23

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (Chiefs) Kareem Hunt (+170)

Kansas City’s offense has been too inconsistent to rely solely on big plays through the air, and the red-zone splits show Andy Reid trusts Hunt to punch it in when drives get close. With Mahomes under pressure to finish drives this week, Hunt has real upside to vulture another short score.

Best Bet: (Ravens) Zay Flowers +260
This looks like a great bounce back spot for Zay to cash in on his first touchdown of the season. His target share and efficiency metrics are just too good to not score once through 4 weeks.

1st Touchdown

Best Bet: (Chiefs) Travis Kelce +830
The Chiefs have had trouble finishing drives, and Travis Kelce remains the clearest path to solving that problem. His numbers through three games aren’t gaudy — 4 catches for 26 yards on 7 targets last week — but his role in Kansas City’s red-zone offense hasn’t gone away. Kelce still leads all tight ends in win rate and ranks among the best in separation score, and even with defenses tilting coverage his way, Mahomes consistently looks to him when the Chiefs are inside the 20.

Longshot: (Ravens) Lamar Jackson +1400
Lamar has run a lot in matchups against this KC defense. He's cetainly run less this season, but if Spags takes away other options, it'll be Lamar who tries to take over this game.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1: Chiefs +626
Kareem Hunt Anytime TD
Travis Kelce Anytime TD

Parlay #2 (Ravens): +214
BAL Ravens ML
Lamar Jackson over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Zay Flowers 4+ Receptions

Bears Team Overview

QB Caleb Williams

It was a great matchup for Williams last week, and he took advantage of it. Williams only needed to complete 19 of his 28 pass attempts to throw for 298 yards and four TDs. That's the high-flying Ben Johnson offence that we're used to seeing. This week, Williams faces off against the Raiders, who allow in the middle of the pack in terms of completions (21.3) and pass attempts (31.3) but the 10th most passing yards (245.3) per game. The Raiders run the most zone coverage (92.6%) in the entire league, and more specifically, Cover 3 (54.6%). Against zone coverage, Williams ranks in the top-10 in terms of passing yards (177) and the 12th-highest yards per attempt (7.59) per game. However, against Cover 3, it gets even better for Williams, as he has the eighth-highest completion percentage (61.1%) and the second-highest yards per attempt (8.64). With the offence finally finding its groove last week, I expect Williams and the Bears to carry that over against a weak Raiders defence this week. Las Vegas have allowed two of its three opponents to go over its passing yards line this season.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams o227.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB D'Andre Swift

After seeing his snap share fall to 56.3% in Week 2, we saw more of Swift in Week 3, earning 61.4% of the snap share. But on those snaps, Swift disappointed, finishing with just 33 rushing yards on 13 rush attempts – and that was against a poor Cowboys defence. However, he did well in the air, catching all three of his targets for 45 receiving yards. The Raiders allow the 5th fewest rush attempts (17.3) but rank in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing yards allowed (80) per game. Where we see an edge for Swift in this matchup is in the coverage schemes. The Raiders allow a 6.13 yards per carry against zone concept, which is the coverage Swift sees most (61.9%), and performs his best, averaging a 4.15 yards per carry. Has Swift been good this season? Not particularly, considering the amount of work he's seen. However, if the Bears' offence is officially clicking and they continue to give him a lot of work, we could see him break off a nice run, which leads to him handling the rock more. Kyle Monangai is always lurking, but he has seen his rushing snaps dip to just six from 10 the week prior.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift o13.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

WR DJ Moore

What is going on with DJ Moore? He's so clearly losing his No. 1 role to Rome Odunze, but at this point, he's not productive at all. Last week, he caught four of his five targets, but that only amounted to 21 receiving yards. While he did find the endzone, it was still an underwhelming performance. This week, he gets the Raiders, who allow the fourth-most receptions (14) and the third-most receiving yards (183.7) per game to opposing WRs. With the Raiders running Cover 3 at the highest rate in the league, this isn't fantastic news for Moore. He's caught three of his four targets, but for only 17 receiving yards – which does not rank inside the top 100 across all pass catchers. On the Bears, that's the fewest yards of all pass catchers, despite running the second most routes (37) against the coverage – just one behind Odunze. He's running routes, but his 0.11 targets per route run against Cover 3 has him 120/147 – and lowest on the Bears – among NFL receivers to have run 10+ routes against the coverage. Despite the favourable matchup against the Raiders, we're in the 'see it to believe it' territory for Moore at this point.

Suggested pick:

Pass

WR Rome Odunze

While Moore is slumping, Odunze is thriving. He didn't see his regular volume last week, but still managed to catch three of his seven targets for 62 receiving yards and a TD. Against Cover 3, Odunze leads the team in target share (21.6%), receiving yards (73), yards per route run (1.92), yards per target (9.13) and is second in first read percentage (21.7%). Odunze lines up out wide on 73% of his routes. To outside WRs, the Raiders allow the most receiving yards (146.7) and yards per reception (18.33). When we switch our search to outside WRs against Cover 3, the Raiders allow the most receiving yards (108) per game and a 20.3 yards per reception. Odunze has registered 60+ receiving yards and a 30+ yard reception in two straight weeks.

Suggested pick:

Rome Odunze 60+ Receiving Yards (-125)

Rome Odunze 30+ Longest Reception (+160)

TE Cole Kmet

Colston Loveland was injured in Week 3 and carries a questionable tag after getting in a limited practice on Friday. However, even if he does play, he's been a non-factor so far this season. On the other hand, Kmet has been a near every-down TE for the Bears, seeing 90.2% of the team's snaps this season. However, he really hasn't turned that into much production. Last week, when he played 96.2% of the snaps, Kmet had just one reception, one target and 10 receiving yards – which went for a TD. While they struggle against WRs, the Raiders are quite good against TEs, allowing the fourth-fewest receptions (3.0) and the 13th most receiving yards (40.3). Kmet lines up in line 54.6% of his routes. Against inline receivers, the Raiders allow the 5th-lowest catch rate (57.1%) and the 4th-fewest targets overall (7). Even if Loveland doesn't play, we saw how that worked out last week, and it wasn't fantastic. Kmet has caught just four of his seven targets this season, never eclipsing more than two catches in a game.

Suggested pick:

Cole Kmet u2.5 Receptions (-150)

Raiders Team Overview

QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith has had a bumpy start to his Raiders tenure, but the highs have been impressive. He threw for 289 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 3, showing his ability to push the ball downfield when the offense opens up. Turnovers have been an issue (4 INTs already), and his accuracy metrics remain below league average, but this matchup provides a chance to rebound. Chicago’s defense has been a sieve through the air, allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game (256.3) and the most passing touchdowns per game (2.7). They play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (36.5%) and have been torched in those looks, giving up the highest first-down-plus-touchdown rate (59.3%) and the 2nd most yards per coverage snap (8.35). Dak Prescott threw for 251 yards against them last week despite losing his top weapon, and both Caleb Williams and Russell Wilson shredded them earlier. With Tre Tucker’s speed to stretch the field and Jakobi Meyers working underneath, Geno should find consistent openings against this secondary. The Bears’ inability to hold up in man coverage makes this a prime spot for him to hit 250+ passing yards again.

Suggested Play:
'O' 254.5 Pass Yards (-125)

RB Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty has yet to fully break out, but the signs are there. He handled a season-high 17 carries for 63 yards last week, showing flashes of explosiveness despite running behind a line that ranks among the worst in yards before contact. Jeanty still forces missed tackles at the 4th highest rate (26%), and when he finds space, his balance and power stand out. This matchup against Chicago could be the turning point. The Bears’ run defense has been porous, allowing 5.5 yards per carry, the second-most rushing yards per game (121.0), and the most yards before contact per attempt (3.09). That means running backs are hitting the second level untouched at an alarming rate. Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders combined for 117 rushing yards against them last week, despite modest workloads. If the Raiders can keep the game competitive, Jeanty should push past 15 carries again. With lanes opening against this Bears front, he has a strong chance to surpass his previous highs and deliver his best rushing performance of the season.

Suggested Play:

'O' 65.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Jakobi Meyers

Jakobi Meyers’ production has dipped slightly each week, but his role remains stable and valuable. Even in a game where Tre Tucker exploded, Meyers still saw meaningful red-zone involvement and posted over 60 yards for the third straight week. His ability to consistently win underneath routes keeps him central to Geno Smith’s reads. Chicago’s defense has been particularly vulnerable to slot receivers, giving up nearly 78 yards per game from that alignment. Amon-Ra St. Brown exposed them with a 9/115/3 performance in Week 2, and Meyers profiles as the type of receiver who can exploit the same soft spots in coverage. Against zone looks — which Chicago runs nearly 58% of the time — Meyers owns a 22.8% target rate and strong efficiency metrics. With the Bears struggling to limit completions in the short and intermediate areas, Meyers should see his target count rebound. Expect him to get back to chain-moving volume and stack catches throughout the game.

Suggested Play:

'O' 5.5 Receptions (+100)

WR Tre Tucker

Tre Tucker turned heads in Week 3 with his breakout 145-yard, 3-touchdown performance. Beyond the stat line, his role is what matters: he played 94% of the snaps and commanded a team-high 31% target share. That usage, paired with his blazing speed, makes him the Raiders’ clear vertical threat. The Bears’ secondary is tailor-made for Tucker to continue producing splash plays. They’ve allowed the third-most yards per reception (16.57) and consistently get beaten down the sidelines. Their heavy use of man coverage (36.5%) has been especially costly, as they give up chunk gains at one of the league’s highest rates. With Chicago ranking in the bottom half of the league in sack rate, Geno should have the time he needs to connect on a few deep attempts. Tucker doesn’t need massive volume to clear this number — one or two deep shots could be all it takes. Against this Bears defense, his chances of ripping off another explosive play are strong.

Suggested Play:

'O' 19.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

TE Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers has been reliable even while working back from a knee injury, logging 4+ receptions in every game so far. With Michael Mayer sidelined by a concussion, Bowers has stepped into an even more secure role, running routes on nearly 90% of dropbacks. The Bears have been unable to slow tight ends, allowing the most receptions per game (8.0) to the position and 53.7 receiving yards on average. Jake Ferguson feasted on them last week with 13 catches, and Bowers is more explosive after the catch than most tight ends in the league. Chicago’s two-high shell funnels throws underneath, which makes him the natural outlet for Geno Smith. Given his red-zone size and usage, Bowers is in an excellent position to cash in with his first touchdown since Week 1.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+165)

Game Prediction

I leaning with the Home team to get the job done in a high scoring game. Both defenses have been BAD

Best Bet Over 47.5 -110
Lean Raiders ML -122
Score Prediction Bears 24 Raiders 27

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Raiders): Brock Bowers TD (+165)

Best Pick: (Bears): Rome Odunze TD (+155)

How are we still getting this price on a guy who has scored a TD in all three games this season, and in this matchup? The Raiders allow the third-most receiving TDs (1.33) to opposing WRs per game. Odunze has four red zone targets, catching all of them for a TD. Those four red zone targets are good for a 50% red zone target share. I'm no mathematician, but that sounds pretty good.

1st Touchdown

Best Pick: (Bears) Luther Burden First TD (+2800)

Extreeeeeme long shot here. But we saw Burden get more involved in the offence last week. Burden ran a season high 28.1% of the snaps, and earned a season high 10.7% target share. With Moore underperforming and Burden displaying his explosiveness last week with a 65-yard TD, maybe they will give him more opportunities? If that's the case, this is an outrageous number.

Best Bet: (Raiders) Ashton Jeanty First TD +510

If the Raiders are going to strike first, Ashton Jeanty is the most logical candidate. He handled 17 carries last week and continues to own the majority of the early-down work, plus his ability to force missed tackles gives him an edge near the goal line. Importantly, Jeanty has also started to see more snaps in scoring situations, while Zamir White has been reduced to a change-of-pace role. The Bears’ defensive front has been a sieve against the run, allowing the most adjusted yards before contact (3.09) and giving up touchdowns in two of their first three games. If the Raiders can string together an opening drive — especially after Geno Smith’s renewed rhythm with Tucker and Meyers — Jeanty should get the first crack at finishing it off.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay 1: (Bears) +250 odds on bet365

Caleb Williams 200+ Passing Yards

Rome Odunze 60+ Receiving Yards

Cole Kmet u2.5 Receptions

Parlay 2: (Raiders) +330 on Fliff

Jakobi Meyers 'O' 5.5 Receptions

Geno Smith 'O' 254.5 Pass Yards

Ashton Jeanty ATD

Packers Team Overview

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love’s conservative usage has been a consistent theme, with 31 or fewer attempts in 11 straight games, but the matchup with Dallas presents a chance for Green Bay to open things up. Last week, he was limited to just 25 passes against a strong Browns defense and still managed 7.3 yards per attempt. This week, he faces a Cowboys secondary that has been a sieve. Dallas deploys Cover 3 on 43% of snaps, and Love has thrived against this look with a sparkling 12.61 YPA and a 114.1 passer rating across 18 attempts. The Cowboys are allowing the most passing yards per game (300.0) and the second-most passing touchdowns per game (2.3). Opponents have lit up Dallas in recent weeks, with Caleb Williams tossing 4 touchdowns and Russell Wilson shredding them for 450 yards and 3 scores. With their pressure rate sitting only middle-of-the-pack at 15th, Love should have more time in the pocket than he did against Cleveland’s relentless rush. This is a “get right” game for the Packers’ passing attack, and Love has the matchup to break his streak of single-touchdown performances.

Suggested Play:
'O' 1.5 Pass TDs (-135)

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs ran into a brick wall last week against the Browns, grinding out just 30 yards on 16 carries, but he made up ground with 44 yards as a receiver. While the efficiency hasn’t always been pretty, Jacobs’ track record of finding the end zone remains remarkable — he’s scored in 12 of his last 14 games dating back to 2023. Against Dallas, the ground game will be challenged again, as the Cowboys allow only 3.5 yards per carry and the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs (69.7). But the key here is role and matchup in the passing game. The Cowboys have quietly been one of the weaker teams against running backs through the air, giving up nearly 40 receiving yards per game to the position. D’Andre Swift exploited that weakness last week with multiple chunk plays. Jacobs has been involved enough as a checkdown option to benefit from similar opportunities, and if the Packers march inside the 10-yard line, there is no doubt who the coaching staff will lean on. Even in a difficult matchup, Jacobs’ volume and nose for the end zone put him in prime position to strike.

Suggested Play:

'O' 0.5 Rushing TD (-160)

WR Romeo Doubs

Romeo Doubs’ stat sheet against Cleveland was quiet — just two catches for 25 yards — but his role remains steady, logging an 84% route share and functioning as a primary outside target. The matchup against Dallas could be exactly what he needs to bounce back. The Cowboys are giving up the most receiving yards per game (180.0) and the fourth-most receptions (28) to wideouts on the perimeter. Against Cover 3, which Dallas runs at a top-five rate, Doubs has been extremely efficient with 3.86 yards per route run, one of the highest splits on the team. The absence of Jayden Reed also consolidates opportunities. Doubs doesn’t need a dozen targets to hit a yardage mark — his strength lies in attacking soft spots outside the numbers, and Dallas has been repeatedly beaten by perimeter receivers over the last two weeks. Expect Love to take a couple of deep shots his way and for Doubs to be featured more heavily in the game plan.

Suggested Play:

'O' 39.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Dontayvion Wicks

Dontayvion Wicks is gradually carving out a consistent role in this offense. He’s seen a 17.9% target share across the past two weeks and is averaging over 30 receiving yards per game. Last week, he posted a 61% route share and drew four targets, proving that he’s more than just a rotational option. Against Dallas, his deployment from the slot (66%) becomes critical. The Cowboys have been stronger on the perimeter than over the middle, and slot receivers have been able to exploit their coverage schemes for steady production. Dallas runs two-high shells more than half the time, and Wicks’ numbers against that look are encouraging — 1.71 yards per route run with a healthy 23.1% first-read share. He may not pile up explosive plays, but his role as a chain-mover underneath makes him a strong candidate to rack up catches against a defense that has struggled to limit volume through the air. If Love throws as much as the matchup suggests, Wicks has a good chance to be busy

Suggested Play:
'O' 3.5 Receptions (+120)

TE Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft’s production has been volatile, but the flashes are undeniable. After exploding for 124 yards in Week 2, he played through a knee issue against Cleveland and still managed three catches for 29 yards while running routes on 68% of dropbacks. The Cowboys present an intriguing test — they’ve been relatively strong against tight ends, allowing just 40 yards per game, but Kraft’s usage profile suggests he’ll continue to be a featured target, particularly against Cover 3 looks where he’s posted an eye-popping 5.08 yards per route run. Dallas has been bled by tight ends who can stretch the seams and threaten zones, and Kraft’s athleticism makes him that type of weapon. While he may not dominate targets the way a top-tier tight end does, his ability to convert limited looks into chunk gains makes his yardage line approachable. If Green Bay’s offense leans on Love to attack Dallas through the air, Kraft will likely be part of the vertical plan.

Suggested Play:

'O' 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Cowboys Team Overview

QB Dak Prescott

Oh boy. The loss of CeeDee Lamb is going to significantly affect Dak, especially in this matchup. But if Dak couldn't get it done against a weak Bears defence, there isn't much confidence he's going to be able to do it in this matchup either. By all means, he did well in his counting stats, completing 31 of his 40 pass attempts for 251 passing yards with a TD and 2 INTs. However, to only score 14 points against the Bears might be something we see more often from this Cowboys offence, especially this week against the Packers. Green Bay are allowing the 4th most completions (25.33), the 5th most pass attempts (39), but the 6th fewest passing yards (189) per game. The Packers run the 11th-most zone coverage (76.7%). Dak currently sits 5th in passing yards this season, but falls to 11th in passing yards against zone coverage. He's actually much better against man coverage, ranking 5th in passing yards against the coverage. Green Bay run Cover 2, 4 and 6 at a top 10 rate in the league. Against those three coverages this season, Prescott ranks 10th in completion percentage (77.6%), 14th in passing yards per game (99.8), but has the 5th most pass attempts. As 6.5-point underdogs and that tretorus defence, Dak should be airing the ball out as much as possible, especially against a defence that is allowing so many pass attempts per game. Dak shares a tie for the league lead in pass attempts with Joe Flacco, excluding Kyler Murray, who has played an extra game.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott 35+ Pass Attempts (-170)

RB Javonte Williams

Javonte just keeps getting better and better. Last week, he saw his usage decrease to just 10 rush attempts, but managed his best yards per carry (7.6), finishing with 76 rushing yards. Granted, that was against a weak Bears rush defence. This week will be a much more difficult task, going up against the Packers, who allow the 3rd-fewest rush attempts (17) and the 5th-fewest rushing yards (58) per game. So far this season, the Packers have held Montgomery (25), Gibbs (19), Ekeler (17), and Croskey-Merritt (17) to 25 or fewer rushing yards through the first two weeks, but got exposed against a fresh Quinshon Judkins, who finished with 94 yards on the ground. Where RBs can attack the Packers' defence is through the air. So far this season, Green Bay has allowed the 3rd-most receptions (7.0) to opposing RBs. Out of the backfield, Javonte has a 77.8% route participation and has corralled all 13 of his targets this season for 59 yards. His usage in the passing game has progressed as the weeks go on, having caught six and five balls in his last two weeks. In this matchup, where the Cowboys should be throwing a ton, and with Micah Parsons seeking revenge, Dak should look to dump the ball off to Javonte as much as possible.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams o3.5 Receptions (+115)

Javonte Williams 5+ Receptions (+260)

WR George Pickens

With Lamb out for the foreseeable future, Pickens steps up into that No. 1 WR role. Last week, Pickens saw a season-high nine targets in Lamb's absence, finishing with five receptions for 68 yards and a TD – the same exact line from the week before. The Packers have been good against WRs this season, allowing the 13th-fewest receptions (11.3) and the 3rd-fewest receiving yards (97) per game. Given the Packers run majority zone coverage, this doesn't bode well for Pickens. He sees his numbers drastically drop in zone coverage compared to man: his yards per catch decreases by 5.5 yards; his yards after catch per reception drops by 5.7 yards; and his aDoT falls by 3.8. Pickens lines up on the outside on 90.8% of his routes and will often draw the Carrington Valentine matchup. Valentine this season has been as locked down as a CB can get, allowing just two receptions on eight targets for 20 receiving yards. However, where Pickens is most going to struggle with in this game is the deep ball – his bread and butter. The Packers allow the lowest yards per catch (7.46) per game this season. If they are to eliminate the deep ball from Pickens, it should be a tough week, despite the promotion to the top WR.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens u22.5 Longest Reception (-115)

WR Jalen Tolbert / Kavontae Turpin

Tolbert was the one who benefited the most from the Lamb injury in Week 3. He saw 88% of the snaps and earned a 13.3% target share, to Turpin's 64.2% and 6.7% target share. However, even on that little volume, Turpin still outproduced Tolbert last week, catching two of his three targets for 64 receiving yards to Tolbert's three receptions on six targets for a 24-yard receiving yard outing. Tolbert runs all over the field, running 40%+ in the slot and out wide. Turpin is also the better receiver against zone coverage, catching six of seven targets for 103 receiving yards. Tolbert has just three receptions on four targets for only 12 receiving yards. While he might not be in a prime position to catch the deep ball in this matchup, his receiving yards line is just too low for this week, considering his blazing speed to quickly burn past defenders and his 47 and 64-yard outings in his previous two games.

Suggested pick:

Kavonte Turpin 30+ Receiving Yards (-125)

Kavonte Turpin 50+ Receiving Yards (+250)

TE Jake Ferguson

Ferguson saw the most volume in Lamb's absence, seeing 14 targets, which was good for a 31.1% target share. Ferguson caught 13 of those targets, taking them for 82 receiving yards. Do we expect him to see that many receptions again? Likely not. But he could in this matchup, as the Packers allow the 3rd most receptions (7.0) and receiving yards (71.7) per game to opposing TEs. Likely moving toward a more 11-personnel offence with Lamb out, Ferguson should see more slots in line. He runs 36.7% of his routes in line, to which the Packers are allowing an 80% catch rate, and the 5th-most receiving yards per game. Ferguson became Dak's safety valve over the middle of the field with Lamb out, and in an even better matchup, Ferguson should earn a similar target share this week.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson o6.5 Receptions (+100)

Game Prediction

You know what they say.... defense wins championships and this is a going to be prime example here as the Packer have the best defense in the league and the Cowboys have been the worst. Expect the Packers to win this game in a low scoring blowout

Best Bet Packers -6.5 -130
Lean Under 48.5 -150
Score Prediction Packers 27 Cowboys 10

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (Packers) Josh Jacobs Rushing TD (-160)

Best Pick: (Cowboys): Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+225)

Having seen the 4th-most targets through the first three weeks, it's a bit surprising that Ferguson has yet to find the end zone. Now that Dak's favourite end zone target is out, he should be in line to earn more red zone snaps, as he has just TWO all season. Green Bay has allowed just one TE to score this season, but they have yet to face off against such a heavily used TE as Ferguson.

1st Touchdown

Longshot: (Packers) Romeo Doubs First TD +725

The Packers have shown a willingness to script early shot plays, and with Jordan Love’s success pushing the ball vertically against zone looks, Doubs is positioned as the likeliest deep threat to benefit. The Cowboys have already been carved up by big plays in recent weeks, giving up touchdowns in bunches to receivers who can stretch the field. Doubs’ combination of size and downfield timing makes him a natural candidate for an early strike, especially if Green Bay wants to seize momentum in a hostile road environment.

Best Pick: (Cowboys) Kavontae Turpin First TD (+2000)

I know we discussed the Packers' ability to defend the deep ball; Turpin has the blazing speed to take a short area reception to the house at any moment. And now that he's earned a 60%+ snap share, Turpin taking one to the house early might be in the Cowboys' game plan in what poses as a difficult game for them this week.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1: Packers +329
Josh Jacobs 'O' 18.5 Rush Attempts
Josh Jacobs ATD
Tucker Kraft 'O' 43.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: (Cowboys) +175 odds on bet365

Dak Prescott 35+ Pass Attempts

Javonte Williams 3+ Receptions

Jake Ferguson 6+ Receptions

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