QB Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers have been playing with a chip on their shoulder since the beginning of the season, and despite a 5-1 start and facing a Detroit Lions team who enters tonight’s game with their entire starting secondary, Tampa Bay remain a 6-point underdog. This is likely due to the Lions strong offensive/defensive balance, but another factor playing a key role in this spread is the analytic experts believe the Bucs are due for regression. Baker Mayfield has already led TB to 3 comeback wins this year and their first 4 victories were decided by a combined 9 points. They won @ ATL (23-20), @ HOU (20-19), and vs NYJ (29-27), before losing to PHI (25-31) and bouncing back to pick up victories @ SEA (38-35) and vs SF (30-19). Now, the Buccaneers enter Ford Field playing with a heavy heart after hearing of the death of former RB, Doug Martin. To say there are several intangibles in play here would be an understatement. With all of that said, Baker Mayfield has emerged as a top-5 candidate for NFL MVP with his play on the field. The TB starting QB has completed 66.2% of his passes (3rd best among QBs) for 256.5 YPG (9th most) while throwing 12 TDs (7th most) to only 1 INT. Tonight, he will face a Detroit defense who is missing their entire starting secondary. The Lions will be without both of their corners in D.J. Reed (I.R.) and Terrion Arnold (shoulder) along with both safeties in Brian Branch (suspended) and Kerby Joseph (knee). Not only that, but DET top reserve safety Avonte Maddox has also been ruled out as well. As a result, the Lions have allowed 250+ yards to opposing starting QBs in 3 of their last 4 games. Detroit employs Cover-3 (29.3%), Cover-1 Man (28.8%) and Cover-4 (18.0%) on 76.1% of their defensive snaps. Baker Mayfield has posted solid numbers against these coverages, where he’s averaged 170.2 pass YPG with a completion rate of 64.1%. Even more impressive is the Bucs starting QB has 9 TD passes and 0 INT, while rushing for 139 yards on 10 carries (10.7 YPC). DET sits near the middle of the pack with a pressure rate of 35.9%, and while Mayfield's passing numbers see a dip (22 of 40, 280 YDS, 3 TD, 0 INT), all 139 of his rushing yards have come against these coverage schemes. Tampa Bay’s receiving core could be a cluster tonight. Mike Evans is expected to start, but Chris Godwin is out and Emeka Egbuka will be a gametime decision. Still, this is nothing new for Baker who also is without his starting RB, Bucky Irving tonight. This is important because even though Rachaad White is a multifaceted back, TB’s rushing offense has been historically insufficient with him as the lead back. The over/under point total is set at 53.5 points for tonight’s game and Baker has combined for 260+ passing and rushing yards in 4 straight games, 277 (vs NYJ), 302 ( vs PHI), 394 (@ SEA) and 270 (vs SF). This game being played in a dome serves as an added bonus for Mayfield and the speedy Tampa receivers. I also like the Bucs QB to throw at least 2 TDs in this spot. Baker has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 5 of 6 games and Detroit has allowed multiple TDs in 5 of 6 games.

Suggested Bet:

Baker Mayfield 260+ Pass + Rush Yards (-162)

Baker Mayfield 2+ Pass TDs (-173)

Baker Mayfield 3+ ALT Pass TDs (+187)

 

RB Rachaad White

Rachaad White doesn't give us everything Bucky Irving does at the RB position, but he carries a heavy workload. In 2 weeks with Bucky sidelined, Rachaad White has gotten 75% (@ SEA) and 77% (vs SF) of Tampa Bay's backfield touches. Detroit has a solid front four, and they're allowing the 4th fewest yards from scrimmage (97.2/gm) to opposing RB's, but White is very reliable in the passing game and there's a big reason why I especially like him for tonight. First, Rachaad will see 75-80% of the snap share on passing plays. The only reason his total took a slight dip last week is because Baker Mayfield only had to drop back 25 times the entire game, and I don't see that being the case tonight against the Lions run defense, which ranks 5th in DVOA against the rush. The Lions are allowing 4.8 receptions (12th fewest) and 27.3 receiving yards (9th fewest) to opposing RBs. There’s no doubting DET strength when it comes to limiting yards to pass-catching backs, but the low reception total given up by the Lions is a misguided number when you consider that 2 of their 6 opponents have been Kansas City and Baltimore, who don’t involve their tailbacks in the passing game. Prior to their week 6 game in Kansas City, Detroit allowed 7 receptions to Chase Brown (CIN) and 4 to Quinshon Judkins (CLE). Even with Mike Evans and possibly Emeka Egbuka back on the field, Baker has maintained a steady 20% target share to his RBs during his time as Bucs QB. Various books are expecting the point total to land somewhere between 51-55 points, and Tampa Bay is listed anywhere from a 5-7 point underdog. This all points to a shootout with Mayfield likely to throw the ball at least 30+ times in a trailing game script, and White will be his top guy for checkdowns. Rachaad caught just one ball in his last matchup against Detroit, but this was a 20-16 low-scoring affair that TB won, and he was splitting time with Bucky Irving. The year prior, White faced the Lions on two occasions where he had games of 4-36-1 and 3-12-0. He should see at least 6 targets under this scenario tonight.

Suggested Bet:

Rachaad White o3.5 Receptions (-133)

 

 

WR Mike Evans

Mike Evans will make his return on MNF after suffering a hamstring injury in week 4 vs the Jets. We are in quite a conundrum with regard to Evans, however as this is not the first time, we’ve been in this situation with the Bucs veteran WR. Last year, Evans missed 4 games with the same injury and when he returned Tampa Bay’s receiving core was pretty thin and they still eased him in. Evans ran a route on just 65% of Baker Mayfield’s dropbacks, but on the plus side he saw a 29% target share. Still, it seems like Evans will be needed more in a pass-heavy script with lots of points expected from both teams. He also has the luxury of facing a Detroit defense who will be without their entire starting secondary, so there’s a real possibility he gets force fed a ton of balls against a team allowing 9.5 YPT (21st in NFL) and a league-high 6 touchdowns. Since Baker Mayfield arrived in Tampa in 2023, Evans has had 47% of the team’s red zone targets. Evans doesn’t have a large sample size this season, but last year when facing the Lions top 3 defensive coverages (Cover-3, Cover-1 Man and Cover-4), Evans caught 53 of his 73 targets for 748 total yards and 4 TDs. The only uncertainty we’re facing here is the status of Emeka Egbuka, but with each passing hour it’s looking more and more like he could suit up. If he does play, I think this benefits both Evans and Egbuka, as they will serve each other as potential decoy threats while on the field together.

Suggested Bet:

Mike Evans o4.5 Receptions (-131)

Mike Evans 60+ Receiving Yards (-125)

Mike Evans Anytime TD (+110)

 

 

WR Emeka Egbuka

The latest update out of One Buc Place according to Adam Schefter is that Emeka Egbuka has a “real chance to play” despite suffering a low-grade hamstring strain last Sunday, per sources. That said, the Buccaneers have stated they will not make an official decision on Egbuka’s status until pre-game warmups. If he is available, the next question is how big of a role is he going to play? One thing we do know is the Bucs rookie WR has been outstanding to begin the ’25 season. Against the 3 specific coverages Detroit employs (Cover-3, Cover-1 Man, Cover-4), Egbuka has amassed 313 yards and 4 TDs, while hauling in 20 of his 34 targets. There is no doubting the level of talent he brings to the field, but we just don’t know if and how much he is going to play.

Suggested Bet:

Emeka Egbuka Status TBD (Gametime Decision)

Emeka Egbuka Anytime TD (+110)

 

 

WR Sterling Shepard

Should Emeka Egbuka be unable to go tonight, the most reliable option is veteran receiver Sterling Shepard, and I think he’s a good play even if Egbuka plays. The two played together in Oklahoma, and Baker Mayfield still has excellent chemistry with Shepard. He’s been targeted at least 4 times or more in every game but one and has posted receiving totals of 39, 34, 80, 14, 24 and 51 yards in the first six weeks of the season. Most importantly, his numbers against Cover-3, Cover-1 Man and Cover-4 have been very consistent. Shepard has 14 of 20 targets against these coverages for 182 yards, but 98 of these have come after the catch and we are dealing with a depleted secondary for Detroit in this game.

Suggested Bet:

Sterling Shepard Over Receiving Yards (No props available as of yet)

 

 

TE Cade Otton

Cade Otton enters MNF as another player whose numbers could be greatly affected by the status of Emeka Egbuka. Last week, Otton caught 5 balls for 51 yards on a team-high 6 targets (26.1%) and 2 of those came after Egbuka left the game. Otton has great hands and has proven on multiple occasions that he can put up big numbers in the passing game, but his involvement in the Bucs offense is dependent on whether or not Tampa Bay is missing any of its core receivers. One thing we do know is that Cade Otton is ALWAYS on the field. The 4th year TE out of Washington runs a route on 88.5% of his snaps. If Ebuka plays tonight, Otton is a no-go for me, but I’m backing his yardage with Emeka sidelined.

Suggested Bet:

Cade Otton: Pass >>> if Emeka Egbuka plays

Cade Otton: 30+ Receiving Yards (-141) >>> if Emeka Egbuka sits

s

QB Jared Goff 

Jared Goff continues to operate Detroit’s offense with surgical precision. What stands out most is his composure against pressure — Tampa Bay blitzes at one of the league’s highest rates (36%), yet Goff’s efficiency actually improves when defenses bring extra rushers. His footwork and pocket navigation have been textbook through six games, and his completion rate jumps 11% under the blitz, with a near-130 passer rating. The Buccaneers’ coverage shell has been a liability, ranking bottom-10 in yards per coverage snap allowed when in zone. That’s dangerous against Goff, who manipulates linebackers with play fakes better than anyone not named Matthew Stafford. Detroit’s play-action passing remains one of the most efficient weapons in football, and with Amon-Ra St. Brown back at full health and Sam LaPorta emerging as a nightmare for zone defenders, Goff has all the pieces to exploit Tampa’s soft spots. Expect John Morton to dial up tempo early, mixing in quick hitters to keep the Bucs off balance before striking with layered vertical routes once the safeties start creeping up. Goff has thrown multiple touchdowns in four of his last six starts — that trend should continue here.

Suggested Play:

'O' 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+185)

 

RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery’s value to this offense isn’t flashy — it’s foundational. His ability to absorb contact and stay on schedule has allowed the Lions to maintain balance on early downs. The Buccaneers will make life tough in the trenches, but Montgomery’s decisive running style gives him a puncher’s chance at finishing drives. Detroit uses him heavily in the red zone, often aligning him in split-back looks beside Jahmyr Gibbs to disguise motion. When the Lions go heavy personnel inside the 10, the defense rarely has the right answer — because Montgomery isn’t just a hammer; he’s a patient reader of leverage. Expect Detroit to test Tampa Bay’s interior early, running behind left guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow, both of whom have dominated zone-blocking assignments. Once they find a crease, Montgomery becomes their go-to goal-line option. Even in a matchup that limits rushing volume, his red-zone usage keeps him squarely in position to punch in Detroit’s first score.

Suggested Play:

First Touchdown (+525)

 

RB Jahmyr Gibbs 

Tampa Bay’s front seven remains elite against the run, but they’ve quietly struggled to contain backs in the passing game — giving up the third-most receiving yards to RBs. That’s where Jahmyr Gibbs’ versatility comes into play. Expect John Morton to move him all over the formation, isolating him against linebackers who can’t mirror his acceleration in space. Gibbs has been used increasingly as a motion and orbit threat, creating confusion in Tampa’s second level while forcing defenders to declare coverage pre-snap. With Goff’s quick release neutralizing the blitz, Gibbs should be the primary safety valve on hot reads and play-action checkdowns. Watch for Detroit to lean on Texas routes, screens, and swing passes — all designed to punish over-pursuit. Even if Montgomery handles most of the early-down work, Gibbs’ pass-game role should expand significantly here. Against a defense that thrives on pressure but struggles laterally, Gibbs’ speed after the catch could flip field position multiple times.

Suggested Play:

'O' 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Few players in the league are more reliable in high-leverage situations than Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s Goff’s security blanket and the heartbeat of Detroit’s aerial attack. Against Tampa Bay’s zone-heavy scheme, St. Brown should feast on soft coverage and passing windows between the hashes. He’s averaging over 5.5 yards per route run against the blitz, and his precision in option routes makes him nearly unguardable when defenses send extra rushers. Expect the Lions to motion him pre-snap to manipulate coverage tells — something they used to perfection against Green Bay earlier this season. St. Brown’s usage inside the 10-yard line has also been trending upward; he’s become Goff’s first read on rub concepts and spacing routes in tight quarters. Tampa Bay’s corners struggle to close quickly when forced to pass off routes underneath, and St. Brown’s ability to shield defenders with his frame makes him the most likely candidate to cap off a red-zone drive.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (-130)

 

TE Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta’s emergence as a top-tier tight end has added an entirely new dimension to Detroit’s offense. He’s not just a checkdown option — he’s a matchup problem, particularly against zone defenses like Tampa’s. The Buccaneers allow one of the highest success rates against TEs when they rotate safeties late, and LaPorta’s knack for sitting in coverage voids has become a staple of Detroit’s intermediate game. Expect him to be used early on bootlegs and play-action crossers to get Goff in rhythm, then as a chain-mover on third downs once the Bucs start overcommitting to St. Brown. His connection with Goff inside the 20 is undeniable; they’ve already hooked up multiple times in tight red-zone windows where timing and trust are everything. Tampa Bay’s linebackers are physical but lack the recovery speed to match LaPorta through breaks, making him a consistent safety blanket on drive-extending plays. Five catches feels like a modest projection if this game plays to its expected pace.

Suggested Play:

'O' 4.5 Receptions (+110)

I think we could very easily see a good ole shootout game. Lions love to take chances and that can impact the whole game on one crazy decision. The Bucs last year when team went for it on 4th down allowed a 1st down on 9/11 rush attempts and 10/19 pass attempts. If you are in a close game with the Lions most of the time it comes down to if they execute a big balls type of decision and in this matchup I see them getting the 1st down more than not. Bucs are also injured everywhere. Give me the Lions in a 7+ point win here  

Best Bet Lions -6.5 -125
Lean Over 52.5 -115
Score Prediction Bucs 24 Lions 34

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Lions): Amon-Ra St. Brown -130

Few players in the league are more reliable in high-leverage situations than Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s Goff’s security blanket and the heartbeat of Detroit’s aerial attack. Against Tampa Bay’s zone-heavy scheme, St. Brown should feast on soft coverage and passing windows between the hashes. He’s averaging over 5.5 yards per route run against the blitz, and his precision in option routes makes him nearly unguardable when defenses send extra rushers. Expect the Lions to motion him pre-snap to manipulate coverage tells — something they used to perfection against Green Bay earlier this season. St. Brown’s usage inside the 10-yard line has also been trending upward; he’s become Goff’s first read on rub concepts and spacing routes in tight quarters. Tampa Bay’s corners struggle to close quickly when forced to pass off routes underneath, and St. Brown’s ability to shield defenders with his frame makes him the most likely candidate to cap off a red-zone drive.

Best Play (Buccaneers): Rachaad White +105
In two starts since Bucky Irving’s injury, Rachaad White has found the end zone for 3 touchdown scores. He had 18 touches for 71 yards and 2 TDs in week 5 @ Seattle, then followed it up with 20 touches for 86 yards and 1 TD vs San Francisco in week 6. White has the ability to score as a rusher and in the pass-catching game, and tonight we’re expecting a large sum of points in what very well could be a shootout.

First TD Scorer

Longshot (Best Bet): David Montgomery +525

David Montgomery’s value to this offense isn’t flashy — it’s foundational. His ability to absorb contact and stay on schedule has allowed the Lions to maintain balance on early downs. The Buccaneers will make life tough in the trenches, but Montgomery’s decisive running style gives him a puncher’s chance at finishing drives. Detroit uses him heavily in the red zone, often aligning him in split-back looks beside Jahmyr Gibbs to disguise motion. When the Lions go heavy personnel inside the 10, the defense rarely has the right answer — because Montgomery isn’t just a hammer; he’s a patient reader of leverage. Expect Detroit to test Tampa Bay’s interior early, running behind left guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow, both of whom have dominated zone-blocking assignments. Once they find a crease, Montgomery becomes their go-to goal-line option. Even in a matchup that limits rushing volume, his red-zone usage keeps him squarely in position to punch in Detroit’s first score.

Best Play (Buccaneers): Mike Evans +1000
We certainly have Detroit to compete with here, but if the Bucs get the opportunity to score first you're bananas if you don't take advantage of Mike Evans with +1000 odds!! The books will slice these odds in half if/when Emeka Egbuka is able to play, but even if Egbuka suits up tonight, I still like him in this spot. Since the beginning of last season, Mike Evans has seen 47% of the red zone targets from Baker Mayfield, and regardless of Egbuka's status, I believe Baker will want to get Evans involved early and especially in the red zone.

 Parlay #1 (Lions): +355

Jared Goff 'O' 1.5 TDs

David Montgomery ATD
Jahmyr Gibbs 'O' 26.5 Receiving Yards

QB C.J. Stroud

C.J. Stroud has been a little better of late, completing an impressive 70.8% of his passes for eight touchdowns and three interceptions. His mobility has also been a weapon, with 122 rushing yards on 18 carries. Last week, he exploded for 244 yards and four touchdowns, showcasing a ceiling we remember from his rookie season. Stroud's advanced metrics reveal a strong passer rating of 102.1, ranking him 6th among all quarterbacks. He also owns a 71.5% first-read percentage. This week, Stroud faces a Seattle Seahawks defense that has been vulnerable through the air, giving up the 6th most passing yards per game (257.8). However, they also get good pressure on the quarterback, ranking 5th in turnover-worthy throw rate forces and having seven interceptions on the season. The Seahawks also bring pressure at the 13th highest rate (39.7%), which could challenge the Texans' 24th-ranked pass-blocking offensive line. Seattle primarily runs zone coverage, specifically Cover 3, at the third-highest rate in the league (80.2%). Stroud has thrown multiple touchdowns in his last three games. While Seattle's secondary is expected to be healthier this week with the potential return of key players, this is a somewhat appealing matchup for him.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 222.5 Passing Yards (-100)

 

RB Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb has been a consistent, albeit not explosive, force for the Texans this season, tallying 249 rushing yards on 58 carries (4.3 YPC) with two touchdowns. He's also contributed modestly in the passing game with seven catches for 46 yards. Last week, he saw 11 carries for 61 yards and found the end zone once, though he was not a factor in the receiving game. This week presents a challenging matchup for Chubb as he faces a Seattle Seahawks defense that boasts the 5th best run defense grading in the league and has allowed the lowest YPC (3.1) to opposing running backs this season. Despite Chubb's solid individual run grading (32nd), this matchup will be a true test. However, it's worth noting that Chubb is clearly preferred in goal-line situations, out-carrying his backfield mate, Woody Marks, 3-to-1 in the red zone. He profiles as the better goal line back. As tempting as it is to just fade a running back against this SEA defense, the lines have adjusted accordingly. I’ll take a stab at the volume instead of the productions from it.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 10.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)

 

RB Woody Marks

Woody Marks has carved out a complementary role in the Texans' backfield this season, accumulating 137 rushing yards on 36 carries (3.8 YPC) with one touchdown. His contributions as a receiver have been more impactful, with six catches for 96 yards. Last week, Marks had seven carries for 24 yards but was not involved in the passing game. Facing a stout Seattle run defense that has allowed the lowest YPC to opposing running backs, it’s hard to count on him contributing as a runner. However, Marks could be a player to target in the receiving game, as the Seahawks have shown vulnerability against pass-catching running backs, allowing the most targets (8.5), receptions (7.17), and receiving yards (57.3) per game to the position. Quarterback C.J. Stroud's recent comments have highlighted Marks as a good receiver out of the backfield and for an offense that has struggled against pressure, the running backs in the offense should be an outlet option.

Suggested Pick

‘O’ 13.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

25+ Receiving Yards (+202)

 

WR Nico Collins

Nico Collins has emerged as a reliable target for the Texans, hauling in 22 receptions for 312 yards and three touchdowns on the season. However, he hasn’t been the dominator we’ve come to expect from him. While he's only surpassed four catches in one game, his knack for finding the end zone is there with touchdowns in three of his last four outings, including a score last week on four catches for 52 yards. This bodes well for his matchup against a Seattle defense that has recently struggled against alpha wide receivers, having allowed good performances to Marvin Harrison Jr. (6-66-TD), Emeka Egbuka (7-163-TD), and Brian Thomas (8-90-TD) over the past three weeks. Collins' advanced metrics are also favorable, as he ranks second among wide receivers in yards per route run against zone coverage, a scheme the Seahawks utilize at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Given the expectation of a competitive game, a potential negative game script, and Seattle's stout run defense, Collins should be in line for plenty of looks tonight.

Suggested Picks

Anytime Touchdown +160

WR Xavier Hutchinson

With Christian Kirk sidelined due to a hamstring injury, Xavier Hutchinson is elevated to the WR2 role, although rookie wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel could also factor into the target share coming off the bye week. Hutchinson has been efficient this season, catching an impressive 85.7% of his targets (12 receptions on 14 targets) for 110 yards, along with a 5-yard carry. Last week was a bit of a breakout performance for Hutchinson, as he reeled in all three of his targets for 18 yards and secured his first two touchdowns of the season, receiving three red-zone targets. Primarily playing out wide (78.2% of snaps), Hutchinson will look to capitalize on his increased opportunity. His lines are low, likely thanks to the books not knowing the involvement of the rookies coming off the bye.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 1.5 Receptions (-165)

‘O’ 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Dalton Schultz

Dalton Schultz has been a consistent target for the Texans, catching 21 of 27 passes (77.7%) for 186 yards this season, though he's yet to find the end zone. Last week, he posted a solid outing with five receptions for 60 yards on six targets with a pair of redzone targets. His advanced metrics show an average of 8.9 yards per reception and 3.3 yards after the catch per reception, along with a modest 7.0 aDOT, suggesting his role as a reliable check-down option. Schultz is primarily deployed inline (56.5%) but also sees significant time in the slot (34.4%). This week, Schultz faces a favorable matchup against a Seattle defense that has struggled against opposing tight ends, allowing the 5th most targets (8.33), 6th most receptions (6.33), and 11th most yards (57.7) per game to the position. With Schultz commanding 18.5% of the team's targets and his established role as a short-area, high-reception option, backing him for receptions looks like the play here. With Kirk out, he could find a little more time out of the slot tonight.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (+100) - LEAN

QB Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold has been incredibly efficient this season, completing 114 of 161 passes for 1,541 yards, 11 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. His performance last week was particularly strong, throwing for 295 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Darnold leads the league in yards per attempt (9.57) and boasts an impressive 116.0 passer rating. Among all quarterbacks, he ranks 4th in yards per game (256.8), 1st in aDOT (9.9), and 3rd in adjusted completion percentage (82.2%). His proficiency against zone coverage is particularly good, as he ranks 1st in the NFL in passing grade against it. This is a significant factor this week, as the Houston Texans play zone coverage at the 6th highest rate in the league (78.9%), primarily Cover 3. The Seahawks' passing offense ranks 7th best in EPA, and Darnold has thrown for two or more touchdowns in four of his five games. Furthermore, Houston has struggled significantly against play-action, allowing the league's best passer rating in those situations, which could open up opportunities for Darnold to exploit. I think this will be a competitive game and with SEA’s struggles on the ground at times, Darnold should have plenty of opportunities to throw.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 18.5 Passing Completions (-115)

 

RB Kenneth Walker III

Kenneth Walker III has been the primary back for the Seahawks this season, accumulating 364 rushing yards on 78 carries (4.7 YPC) with three touchdowns, and adding eight receptions for 61 yards. Last week, he had a very middling performance with 10 carries for 34 yards and one catch for three yards. Among qualified running backs, Walker boasts an impressive 9% explosive run rate, ranking 2nd in the league, showcasing his big-play potential. However, he faces a tough matchup against a Houston defense that ranks 9th lowest in yards per carry allowed and permits an explosive run rate of only 3.4%. Houston also ranks 30th in stuff rate, meaning they often allow running backs to meet tacklers earlier, which could be a factor for both Walker and his backfield mate, Charbonnet. Walker's involvement in the passing game has been limited, partly due to Sam Darnold's league's second-lowest checkdown rate (3.7%). Despite his explosive ability, Walker played a season-low 34.5% of snaps last week, and the team appears to favor Charbonnet in red-zone situations, suggesting a potentially capped upside for Walker in a tough matchup.

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 1.5 Receptions (-150)

‘U’ 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-140)

 

RB Zach Charbonnet

Zach Charbonnet has had a difficult season statistically as a runner, managing just 156 yards on 60 carries for a brutal 2.6 YPC, though he has found the end zone three times. He's added four catches for 30 yards. Last week, Charbonnet carried the ball 12 times for 24 yards and secured one catch for 13 yards. His advanced metrics among qualified running backs are concerning, ranking near the bottom in YPC (36th - dead last), explosive run rate (32nd), stuff rate (31st), and yards after contact per attempt (30th). Compounding his struggles, he has failed to gain positive yardage on nearly 32% of his runs. Despite these poor rushing numbers, the Seahawks have demonstrated a clear preference for Charbonnet in red-zone situations, as evidenced by his significant advantage in snaps over Kenneth Walker III inside the 10-yard line (9 to 3) and the 5-yard line (6 to 0). Last week, Charbonnet outsnapped Walker 60% to 34.5%, suggesting an increasing role, though a closer to 50/50 split is anticipated moving forward. It’s once again unders, touchdown or pass for me.

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 40.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

 

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a dominant force for the Seahawks this season, leading the team with 42 receptions on 56 targets (75.0% catch rate) for an impressive 696 receiving yards, good for 2nd in the league, along with three touchdowns. His performance last week was particularly explosive, hauling in 8 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. Smith-Njigba primarily lines up out wide (79.4%) but also sees time in the slot (20.0%), although not nearing as much as last season. His advanced metrics are outstanding, boasting a 34.1% target share, accounting for 44.7% of the team's receiving yards, averaging a remarkable 16.57 yards per reception, and owning a near 50% air yardage share. Furthermore, he ranks 1st in yards per route run against zone coverage, which bodes extremely well for his matchup against a Houston Texans defense that employs zone at the 6th highest rate in the NFL. Smith-Njigba's incredible efficiency, highlighted by his 4.2 yards per route run, positions him for another huge outing. With Puka Nacua previously shredding this Houston defense for 10 catches, 130 yards, and a score, all signs point to Smith-Njigba being a force once again.

Suggested Picks

Longest Reception ‘O’ 25.5 Yards (-114)

 

WR Cooper Kupp

Cooper Kupp has had a relatively quiet season by his standards, catching 23 of 32 targets (71.8%) for 261 yards and one touchdown. Last week, he secured two catches for 40 yards and his first touchdown of the season on three targets. Kupp splits his time almost evenly between playing out wide (47.2%) and in the slot (50.9%). His advanced metrics show an 18.3% target share and he accounts for 16.8% of the team's receiving yards, with an average of 11.35 yards per reception and a solid 5.35 yards after the catch per reception. Notably, Kupp has only surpassed four receptions in two games this season, suggesting a more limited volume. However, he faces a potentially favorable matchup as the Houston Texans have shown vulnerability to slot receivers, allowing 7.4 yards per target out of the slot (13th highest in the league). Given his significant usage from the slot, Kupp could see an uptick in opportunities and efficiency against Houston, making him an interesting over candidate.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

TE A.J. Barner

A.J. Barner has been an exceptionally efficient and productive tight end for the Seahawks this season, catching 17 of 19 targets (89.4% catch rate) for 205 yards and a team-leading four touchdowns. He was very solid last week, hauling in all three of his targets for 71 yards. Barner is primarily an inline tight end (85.6% of snaps) but also sees some usage in the slot (8.9%) and out wide (3.4%). His advanced metrics are good, boasting 12.06 yards per reception and a robust 5.06 yards after the catch per reception. Barner leads the team with six red-zone targets, where he commands a significant 29.4% target share. His exceptional 91.1 PFF receiving grade in 12 personnel, reportedly the second-best among all tight ends this season, makes him particularly effective in play-action. Barner has been a pretty reliable piece of this offense. It’s hard not to look at his touchdown upside once again here.

Suggested Picks

‘O 2.5 Receptions (-130)

This should be a great spot for the Texans coming off a BYE and giving BAL a beatdown in week 5. However, SEA is getting healthy in the secondary and their offense has been elite all season, at least through the air. It’ll be interesting to see if Derek Stingly Jr. will move around with Jaxon Smith-Njigba all night, but I think the Texans’ offense might sputter at times against a tough defensive front. Pressure has not been Stroud’s friend this season and Seattle’s ability to force turnovers could easily be the difference here. I think we see HOU come out strong but fizzle down the stretch. Seattle covers this line of -3.

Best Bet: SEA Seahawks -2.5 -125
Lean: Total Under 42.5 -120
Score Prediction: Texans 17 Seahawks 24

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet: (Texans) Nico Collins +160

In each of the last three weeks, the wide receiver #1 has scored against SEA - Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Brian Thomas. Collins should have some opportunity to continue that trend as a guy that has scored in three of the last 4 games before the BYE.

Best Bet (Seahawks): A.J. Barner +380

Barner leads this team in touchdowns (4) and red zone targets (6) this season. He grades out extremely well as a heavy personnel pass catcher which makes him an effective option on rollouts in the red zone. SEA might struggle with establishing the run once again here.

First TD Scorer

Longshot: (Texans) Xavier Hutchinson +2500

Hutchinson caught his first two touchdowns last week and logged three redzone targets. This SEA defense is stout against the run and will likely aim to keep Collins in check. Coming off the BYE, the Texans should have a good opening game plan and will look to score early to keep pace with a high octane SEA offense.

Longshot (Seahawks): Cooper Kupp +1400

HOU can be vulnerable to the slot, allowing 7.4 yards per target, which is 13th highest in the league. Kupp continues to be involved, albeit with underwhelming overall numbers. He has 1+ redzone targets in 3 of the last 4 games and is a fun option for a first score this week as a longshot.

 Parlay #1 (+190)

SEA Seahawks ML

Nico Collins 40+ Receiving Yards

Nick Chubb 25+ Rushing Yards

 

Parlay #2 (+567)

Sam Darnold 200+ Pass Yards

C.J. Stroud 20+ Rushing Yards

Nico Collins TD

 

Parlay #3 (+2840)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 30+ Yard Reception

Woody Mark 30+ Receiving Yards

A.J. Barner TD

 

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is averaging 204.2 passing yards per game, 7.40 YPA and a 68.8% completion rate. He’s thrown for 10 total TDs and 3 interceptions. On a short week, he’ll face a Bengals pass defense that is 5^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed. They have allowed 270.4 passing yards per game (2^nd most). They blitz at the 2^nd lowest rate (16%) and their pressure rate ranks 5^th lowest (32.1%). Rodgers averages 7.91 YPA and a 76.2% completion rate when not pressured, compared to 6.00 YPA and a 48.6% completion rate when pressured. The Bengals are particularly weak against short targets. They are allowing the most YPA (7.83) and the most yards after catch per reception (7.88) on targets 9 or less yards down field. Rodgers has the lowest average depth of target amongst QBs with 100+ dropbacks (5.4 yards). Rodgers averages 6.63 YPA (8^th most) on targets 9 or less yards down field. The Steelers are 5.5-point favorites and implied to score 24.5 total points. They are relatively neutral in terms of pass vs run splits, with a -0.7% pass rate over expected. Considering the Bengals are also 5^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed, it’ll be interesting to see the balance of the Steelers attack on a short week. The Bengals do not have any notable defensive schematic tendencies so I will not factor that into Rodgers’ analysis.  Overall, this is a bullish matchup for Rodgers.

Suggested Pick:

Over 214.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-115)

 

RB Jaylen Warren

Warren had the highest snap share of his career in week 3 at 77.6%. Warren missed week 4 with a knee injury and Gainwell played well in his absence, with 134 all purpose yards and 2 TDs. In the first game post bye, Warren saw his snap share decrease to 51.7% as both Gainwell and rookie Kaleb Johnson saw some opportunities. I would expect Warren to see a 50-60% snap share going forward. Warren is averaging 46 rushing yards per game on 3.41 YPC. On a short week, Warren will face a Bengals defense that is 5^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed. The Steelers are 5.5-point favorites with a 24.5-point implied total, this is a bullish potential game script for Warren on the ground. In the games that both Gainwell and Warren have played in, Warren trails Gainwell in route participation rate, 33.6% to 40.6% respectively. Warren has been more productive with his opportunities. He is average 3.56 YPRR and 33% TPRR, compared to Gainwell’s 1.18 YPRR and 33% TPRR. This is a bullish matchup as the Bengals are 5^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and 11^th worst in YPRR to opposing backfields.

Suggested Pick:

Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

25+ Receiving Yards (+135)

Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-122)

 

WR DK Metcalf

Dk is averaging 71.2 receiving yards per game, 2.72 YPRR, 24% TPRR and a 29.2% 1^st-read rate. DK has lined up 76.3% of the time out wide and 23.7% from the slot. On a short week, he’ll face a Bengals pass defense that is 5^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed. The Bengals allow the 19^th most YPRR to wide alignment (1.92) but the most to the slot (2.17). They blitz at the 2^nd lowest rate (16%) and their pressure rate ranks 5^th lowest (32.1%). DK averages an insane 4.18 YPRR and 34% TPRR when Rodgers is not pressured. The Bengals are particularly weak against short targets. They are allowing the most YPA (7.83) and the most yards after catch per reception (7.88) on targets 9 or less yards down field. DK leads the team in receiving on targets 9 or less yards down field. He averages 2.49 YPRR and 28% TPRR. He also averages an insane 11.21 yards after catch per reception. Calvin Austin was out last week with a shoulder injury. DK saw 9 targets and his 1^st-read rate increased to 38.1% as a result. Austin was categorized as a non-participant for Monday’s practice. If Austin misses again, DK should once again see an uptick in targets.

Suggested Pick:

Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Anytime TD (+145)

 

TE Darnell Washington

Last week with Calvin Austin out with an injury, Washington had a career-high 61% route participation rate (3^rd highest on the Steelers). That’s 2 weeks in a row Washington has had a 60%+ route rate and has vasty out snapped Pat Freiermuth. Darnell caught 3 of 5 targets for 62 yards against the Browns, 2^nd on the team in targets and T-2^nd in 1^st-read rate (19%). That’s now 2 weeks in a row Washington has been 2^nd on the team in receiving. Austin did not practice on Monday or Tuesday and with the game on Thursday, it’s highly unlikely Austin suits up. Tomlin labeled Darnell Washington as a big tight end they play against 4-3 defenses. “He will certainly probably be in a similar position this week, in terms of role, since we’re playing another 4-3 defense.” Darnell has run 70% of his routes from inline. The Bengals are 3^rd worst in terms of EPA/Pass, allowing the 2^nd most receiving yards per game against inline alignment (46.7). Washington’s production has come in the following 4 route types: Corner, Hitch, Out, Flat. The Bengals are allowing the 2^nd most YPRR against these 4 route types (1.99). This is a perfect matchup for Washington to continue his breakout!

Suggested Pick:

Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

30+ Receiving Yards (+210)

40+ Receiving Yards (+400)

50+ Receiving Yards (+700)

Anytime Touchdown (+370)

 

TE Jonnu Smith

With Calvin Austin out with a shoulder injury last week, Jonnu Smith was 2^nd on the team in route participation rate at 71%. He caught 3 of 4 targets for 18 yards. On the season, he’s averaging 17.8 receiving yards per game, 1.02 YPRR and 22% TPRR. He’s being used as an underneath target, with a 1.1 average depth of target. The Bengals are particularly weak against short targets. They are allowing the most YPA (7.83) and the most yards after catch per reception (7.88) on targets 9 or less yards down field. DK leads the team in receiving on targets 9 or less yards down field. Jonnu is averaging 5.47 yards after catch per reception. He’s lined up in the slot on 47.1% of his routes, 31% inline and 19.5% out wide. The Bengals are 10^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed to the slot, 3^rd worst against inline, and 6^th toughest against wide alignment. The Bengals are allowing the 4^th most receiving yards to TE. 

Suggested Pick:

Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

 

QB Joe Flacco

In Flacco’s first game with the Bengals, he completed 29 of 45 attempts for 219 passing yards and 2 touchdowns. His average time to throw was 2.37 seconds, which would rank 2^nd lowest amongst QBs with 100+ dropbacks. For reference, Browning averaged 2.61 seconds to throw, which ranks 21^st fastest. Since week 3, the Steelers have been a pass funnel, ranking #1 in pass rate over expected allowed. Outside of Justin Fields in week 1, every QB has gone over their respective pass attempts line against the Steelers by a minimum of 3. Considering the Bengals are 5.5-point underdogs, this may once again be a spot with a lot of passing volume. On an EPA/Pass allowed basis, the Steelers have been average, ranking as the 12^th toughest passing matchup based on this metric. A lot of the passing success against them has been due to the volume. The Steelers have blitzed at the 3^rd highest rate (34.5%) but are 16^th in pressure rate (38.8%). Flacco has averaged just 3.98 YPA and a 46.8% completion rate against the blitz this season. That compares to 5.50 YPA and a 65% completion rate when not blitzed. I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on this statistic as most of this was with the Browns and his weapons on the Bengals are much more talented.

Suggested Pick:

Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

40+ Pass Attempts (+200)

45+ Pass Attempts (+450)

 

RB Chase Brown

Chase Brown is averaging 33.7 rushing yards per game on 2.73 YPC. He has averaged just 12.3 rush attempts per game this season compared to 18.9 per game last season when he had a 65%+ snap share. This offensive line has done him no favors, as the Bengals average the lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.00). The Steelers are 7^th best in this category since week 3 (1.58). The Steelers have allowed 22 rush attempts when the QB is in shotgun and when the runner goes to the right side or middle which Brown has done in 37/43 attempts under shotgun, the Steelers have allowed 5.73 YPC and a 13.6% explosive rush rate (2^nd highest). Last year they ranked #1 in this situation allowing 3.57 YPC in a larger sample size. Since week 3, the Steelers have been a pass funnel, ranking #1 in pass rate over expected allowed. As 5.5-point underdogs, Brown is unlikely to see much volume in the running game. Turning to the receiving game, Brown is averaging 3.3 receptions for 17 receiving yards per game. He’s had a modest 44.1% route participation rate, which ranks 18^th amongst RBs with 25+ routes run. Last season, from weeks 9 to 17 when he took full control of the backfield, Brown’s route rate was 62.2%. In terms of the matchup, the Steelers rank 11^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed to opposing backfields. However, the Steelers have allowed the 5^th lowest target share to backfields (13.2%). 4 of 5 opposing starting RBs have surpassed their receiving closing line against the Steelers, I lean over on Brown’s receiving.

Suggested Pick:

Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110) *Lean*

 

WR Ja’Marr Chase

In the first game with Joe Flacco at QB, Ja’Marr caught 10 of 12 targets for 94 yards. He had an insane 44.4% 1^st-read rate. With Browning starting, Chase averaged 7.3 targets per game with a 31.1% 1^st-read rate. Chase has lined up out wide on 64.3% of his routes and in the slot on 35.3%. He’ll face a Steelers defense that has allowed the 5^th most receiving yards per game to wide + slot alignment (196.2). The Steelers have blitzed at the 3^rd highest rate (34.5%) but are 16^th in pressure rate (38.8%). Flacco averaged 2.37 seconds to throw in his first game with the Bengals, which would rank 2^nd lowest amongst QBs with 100+ dropbacks. For reference, Browning averaged 2.61 seconds to throw, which ranks 21^st fastest. Flacco’s ability to get the ball out quickly will help Chase and the rest of this passing offense. Since week 3, the Steelers have been a pass funnel, ranking #1 in pass rate over expected allowed. They have limited Judkins to 36 rush yards, Mason to 57 and Stevenson to 18 in the past 3 weeks, all comfortably below their respective closing lines. In contrast, the last 4 QBs have soared past their attempts line against them. Expecting a high-volume attack and expect Chase to see a ton of targets. WR1s have performed well against the Steelers, including JJetta for 126 receiving yards, JSN for 103, and Garrett Wilson for 95.

Suggested Pick:

Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

80+ Receiving Yards (+132)

90+ Receiving Yards (+194)

100+ Receiving Yards (+270)

Anytime TD (+145)

 

WR Tee Higgins

In the first game that Joe Flacco started for the Bengals, Tee Higgins caught 5 of 7 targets for 62 yards. He was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 25.9%. From weeks 1 to 5, Higgins averaged just 31.6 receiving yards per game and a 24.1% 1^st-read rate. Higgins has lined up out wide on 86.2% of his routes. He’ll face a Steelers defense that has allowed the 9^th most receiving yards per game to wide alignment.  The Steelers have blitzed at the 3^rd highest rate (34.5%) but are 16^th in pressure rate (38.8%). Flacco averaged 2.37 seconds to throw in his first game with the Bengals, which would rank 2^nd lowest amongst QBs with 100+ dropbacks. For reference, Browning averaged 2.61 seconds to throw, which ranks 21^st fastest. Flacco’s ability to get the ball out quickly will help Higgins and the rest of this passing offense. Since week 3, the Steelers have been a pass funnel, ranking #1 in pass rate over expected allowed. They have limited Judkins to 36 rush yards, Mason to 57 and Stevenson to 18 in the past 3 weeks, all comfortably below their respective closing lines. In contrast, the last 4 QBs have soared past their attempts line against them. I lean over on Tee but prefer Ja’Marr to Higgins.

Suggested Pick:

Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

 

TE Noah Fant/Drew Sample

Mike Gesicki was injured last week and is expected to miss some time. Year-to-date, he has led the TEs in route rate. Tanner Hudson saw a higher route rate in Gesicki’s place last game once Gesicki went down, but he is in concussion protocol and is unlikely to play. Fant should see the highest route rate, followed by Drew Sample. In Flacco’s 1^st game with the Bengals, Fant caught 4 of 4 targets for 27 receiving yards. Hudson caught 4 of 5 targets for 10 receiving yards and a TD. Matchup wise, they’ll face a Steelers defense that has allowed the 10^th most receiving yards and 5^th most receiving TDs to TE. Fant has lined up inline on 84.2% of his routes. The Steelers are 7^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed to inline. Hudson has ran 46.7% of his routes from the slot. The Steelers 14^th worst in EPA/Pass to the slot. I prefer Fant over Sample due to rule and alignment matchup. I still don’t have a lot of confidence in either as Chase and Higgins demand most of the volume in this passing offense.

Suggested Pick:

Noah Fant Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Despite a short week where games tend to be ugly, I like this game to be a sneaky shootout with the two 40+ year old QBs. The Steelers have been the #1 pass funnel in the league in terms of pass rate over expected allowed since week 3, and I’m expecting Flacco to sling it here. He is not afraid to force it to his star players, and I think they’ll be some explosive plays here. Also wouldn’t be surprised if Flacco threw a pick 6 as I’m sure there will still be some miscommunication with this being his 2^nd week with the team. On the other side, the Steelers should have no issue scoring against one of the worst defenses in the entire league, they rank 4^th worst in EPA/Play allowed. I don’t have a strong read on the spread but think Bengals could have a sneaky backdoor cover.

Best Bet: Over 43.5 (-120)
Lean: Bengals +5.5 (-110)
Score Prediction: Steelers 27 Bengals 24

Anytime TD Scorer

Darnell Washington (Steelers) +370

Washington has had a 60%+ route rate in 2 straight games and gets another bullish matchup against a 4-3 defense. He’s 2^nd on the team in receiving the last 2 games and Calvin Austin remains out. Darnell is listed at 6’7 and 264 pounds, he is a matchup nightmare. He saw a designed target in the endzone against the Vikings and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them draw up another play for him against the Bengals this week. The Bengals are ranked 3^rd worst in terms of EPA/Pass against inline alignment, where Darnell has ran 70% of his routes. This is the week!

 

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) +145

In Flacco’s first game with the Bengals, Chase caught 10 of 12 targets for 94 yards and a TD. He had an insane 44.4% 1^st-read rate. He’s seen 4 redzone targets in the past 2 weeks, scoring 3 times. The matchup isn’t amazing but considering the Steelers have been the #1 pass funnel since week 3, I expect Ja’Marr to be peppered with targets. Chase is that good!

 

First TD Scorer

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +750

DK has scored in 4 straight weeks and 3 of them have been in the first half. DK has a 29.2% 1^st-read over the season and that increased to 38.1% last week with Calvin Austin out. DK has the perfect frame for Rodgers to key in on in the redzone and he should see a massive target share considering the Steelers do not have many other weapons.

 

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) +950

Ja’Marr was targeted 3 times and caught a TD in the first quarter last week in Joe Flacco’s first game. Flacco even mentioned when he came here that if Ja’Marr tells him something, he will listen and give him a chance to make a play. I expect the #1 WR from last season to be active early and often with Flacco now at QB.

Parlay #1 (+659)

Jaylen Warren Over 48.5 Rushing Yards

Jonnu Smith Over 27.5 Receiving Yards

Ja’Marr Chase Most Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2 (+747)

Jaylen Warren Over 16.5 Receiving Yards

Jaylen Warren Most Rushing Yards

Aaron Rodgers 2+ Passing TDs

 

Parlay #3 (+1600)

Ja’Marr Chase 100+ Receiving Yards

Darnell Washington 40+ Receiving Yards

QB Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford saw his 4-game streak of throwing multiple TDs come to a screeching halt in what turned out to be an ugly game against the Ravens. He completed 17 of 26 passes for 181 yards and a TD. Most importantly, the Rams offense was not nearly as efficient last week without Nacua and reports out of Los Angeles as of Friday are saying Puka is “seriously in doubt” for his week 7 game against Jacksonville. The good news is the Jaguars allow the 4th most passing YPG (266.2) and 10th most pass TDs per game (1.7). Now, they will enter Sunday’s game in London without field general LB Devin Lloyd, who is nursing a calf injury. Stafford still has the services of Davante Adams, and this is a matchup the veteran QB can have success in by using the play-action game. He has the 4th highest rate of play-action (30.2% of dropbacks) in the NFL, where he’s averaging 8.8 YPA (9th highest), a 7.9% TD-rate (13th highest) and 0 INTs. JAX is allowing a 59.5% completion rate on non-play-action attempts, but when opposing QBs use the play-action game, their opponents completion rate swells to 68.7%. We’ve talked in the past about how good of a job head coach Sean McVay does of exploiting opposing team’s weaknesses, so I expect to see Matthew Stafford and the Rams employ this strategy. We also have a spread of just 1 point in this game, which lends itself to Stafford consistently passing the football. Over the past 3 games, Sam Darnold, Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy have all thrown for at least 295+ yards and 2 TDs against the Jags. Stafford should do the same here.

Suggested Bet:

Matthew Stafford 240+ Pass Yards (-143)

Matthew Stafford 2+ Pass TDs (-138)

 

RB Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams continues to be a steady stat sheet filler among NFL running backs. In the first 6 weeks of the season, the 4th year starting RB out of Notre Dame has amassed 573 all-purpose yards, while finding the end zone for 5 touchdown scores. Another thing you can always count on with Williams is he’s going to get a solid workload out of the backfield. He ranks 6th among RBs in snaps, and he comes into Sunday’s game expecting an even greater share of work as Blake Corum is expected to either be sidelined or limited vs Jacksonville. There is one spot, specifically, that we are going to hammer with Kyren Williams and that’s his receiving yards. He may have only cleared this line in 3 of his first 6 starts, but the Rams tailback has had games of 66 (vs SF) and 37 (@ BAL) over the L2 weeks. In addition to Corum’s injury status, Puka Nacua is expected to miss Sunday’s game so that should call for him to shoulder even more of a load. Williams is getting 17.5% of the team’s receiving targets when Nacua is off the field, compared to 12.7% when he is on the field. As far as the Jaguars are concerned, they have one of the worst pass defenses in the league this year, and they have been especially poor at defending the running back position. JAX allows the 11th most receptions (4.8) to opposing RBs and 8th most receiving YPG (37.9). The Jaguars have already allowed 5 running backs to clear the 18-yard threshold this season. This list includes Chubba Hubbard (32), Chase Brown (18), Christian McCaffrey (92), Isiah Pacheco (20) and Brashard Smith (32). We’re getting a great line here, considering Williams is seeing an average of 3.8 TPG and is averaging 8.6 YPR. With Blake Corum listed as questionable, Kyren is expected to see at least an 80% snap share, and that number should increase under the assumption that LA will most likely be without Puka Nacua.

Suggested Bet:

Kyren Williams o17.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Kyren Williams 25+ ALT Receiving Yards (+146)

Kyren Williams 40+ ALT Receiving Yards (+390)

 

WR Davante Adams

With Puka Nacua expected to miss week 7 due to an ankle injury, Davante Adams should see elevated numbers. This couldn’t come at a better time for Adams, who will face a Jacksonville defense that runs Cover-3 (32.5%) and Cover-6 (24.0%) at a combined 56.5% clip. Not only should Adams see around 30% of the team’s targets, but he will face a Jaguars secondary that’s getting obliterated for a league-high 151 YPG by outside WR, along with the 9th most YPRR (2.22) to receivers aligned out wide. Last week, Jaxon Smith-Njigba destroyed the JAX defense for 8-162-1. Adams comes with added red zone value as well this Sunday in London. He has the 3rd highest share of red zone targets in the league (38.8%), 2nd highest number of end zone looks in the NFL (11) and Adams leads the Rams with 68.8% of his team’s end zone targets. The stars have aligned perfectly for the LA wide receiver to post a massive output on Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Davante Adams o79.5 Receiving Yards (-136)

Davante Adams 100 + ALT Receiving Yards (+158)

Davante Adams 125+ ALT Receiving Yards (+360)

Davante Adams Anytime TD (-115)

Davante Adams 2+ ALT TDs (+500)

 

WR Jordan Whittington

Jordan Whittington could be in for a nice week 7 when he faces the Jaguars in London. It seems to be a foregone conclusion at this point that Puka Nacua will be unavailable for the Rams. Last Sunday when Nacua was off the field, Whittington ran a route on 91.8% of Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks. The Los Angeles WR has upside this week because he can be used both in the slot (27% in week 6) and lined up out wide (52% out wide). Now, here’s the stat appeal that may persuade you to take a shot on the 6th round pick out of Texas. In 3 starts last year when Puka Nacua was sidelined due to injury,  Whittington posted games of 6-62-0 (@ CHI), 7-89-0 (vs GB) and 3-86-0 (vs SEA). I’m specifically targeting his longest reception in London on Sunday. In the ’24 season, Whittington had games with longs of 22, 31 and 50, and he’s recorded longs of 40 and 22 already this year. Now, he’s going up against a Jacksonville secondary that’s gotten shredded, especially when matching up against opposing receivers that are lining up wide.

Suggested Bet:

Jordan Whittington o18.5 Longest Reception (-110)

 

TE Tyler Higbee

After seeing a total of just 6 targets in his first 3 games combined, Tyler Higbee has had 5 and 4 targets over the last 2 weeks, where recorded 25 and 40 receiving yards respectively. However, last week’s 40-yard output came without the services of both Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. Higbee’s value is strictly limited to the end zone this Sunday against Jacksonville, who ranks in the middle of the pack in defending opposing TEs

Suggested Bet:

Pass

QB Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence’s season statistics show 129 completions on 211 attempts (61.1%) for 1,324 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, along with 28 carries for 95 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Last week, he had a solid performance with 27 completions for 258 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. His advanced metrics indicate an 81.9 passer rating, a respectable 5.5% sack rate, and a lower 30.1% pressure rate. Among quarterbacks, he boasts an excellent 72.5% 1st Read% (2nd highest), but also a league-high 11.4% drop rate from his receivers, suggesting his numbers could be better if his WR’s could catch. The matchup against the Los Angeles Rams presents a mixed bag. The Rams play zone coverage at the 9th highest rate, primarily Cover 3, which could be a concern as Lawrence ranks 25th among qualified quarterbacks against zone. However, his high 1st Read% might help mitigate some of these challenges. On the defensive front, the Rams are good, ranking seventh in pressure rate (40.7%) and eighth in sack rate (8.4%) despite a low blitz rate (26th), meaning Lawrence will face consistent pressure even without a heavy blitz. A positive for the Jaguars is their league-leading 48 points off turnovers, highlighting their ability to capitalize on opponent mistakes, but also showing some luck they may not get throughout the rest of the season. This really isn’t a spot I want to back Lawrence. He doesn’t quite pass the eye test with so many questionable mental errors throughout a game. I think the turnover-worthy throw rate catches up to him here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (-135)

 

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
Travis Etienne presents a high-volume option in a tough mtchup. His season has been productive, with 89 carries for 470 yards (an excellent 5.3 YPC, 6th in the league) and 2 touchdowns, along with 13 catches for 69 yards and another score. He consistently dominates the backfield, handling 76.9%, 75%, and 72.7% of touches over the past three weeks. His advanced metrics among qualified running backs are strong, including 5.28 YPC (4th) and a respectable 5.6% explosive run rate (14th). However, recent performance has dipped, with last week marking his third game in the past four with fewer than 60 total yards (12 carries for 27 yards, 4 catches for 28 yards). The upcoming matchup against the Los Angeles Rams is particularly tough for the run game. The Rams are stout against the run, allowing the 15th fewest rushing yards per game (107.8), the 6th lowest yards per carry (3.78), and the 3rd lowest explosive run rate (1.2%). This suggests Etienne will face resistance on the ground. While Etienne's volume and role in the offense are undeniable, the tough matchup against the Rams' run defense makes it difficult to project a breakout performance on the ground. If the Jaguars find themselves in a negative game script, as anticipated, his involvement in the passing game could see a slight increase, but overall success might be limited.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 60.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

RB Bhayshul Tuten
Bayshul Tuten has clearly become primarily a handcuff to Travis Etienne with minimal standalone value. While he is finally off the injury report from a shoulder issue, his involvement in the offense has been consistently low. On the season, Tuten has recorded 27 carries for 108 yards (4.0 YPC) and 1 touchdown, along with 6 catches for 59 yards and another score. Over the last three weeks, he hasn't exceeded 4 carries in any single game and has only amassed a total of 5 receptions during that span. Last week, he had just 2 carries for 14 yards and 2 catches for 14 yards on 3 targets. Along with a tough matchup, he’s a full avoid to me. His lines have slipped to the point where there isn't value on the unders so I’ll pass.

Suggested Picks
PASS

 

WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr. presents a potentially valuable option this week coming off a strong performance. On the season, he has recorded 24 catches on 48 targets (50%) for 334 yards and 1 touchdown, along with 2 carries for 16 yards and a rushing touchdown. Last week was a breakout, with 8 catches for 90 yards on 10 targets and a touchdown. His advanced metrics are excellent, showcasing a 22.3% target share, accounting for 25.2% of the team's receiving yards, and a significant 35.1% air yardage share, indicating his role as a primary deep threat. He primarily operates as an outside receiver (74.9% out wide). He commands targets when the defense generates pressure, ranking 16th among receivers in this category. This is crucial against the Los Angeles Rams, who rank 9th in pressure rate. Despite the Rams' strong defensive front, Thomas's demonstrated ability to produce under duress suggests he can still be effective. Along with Lawrence’s high 1st read rate, which Thomas is the primary option for, I think we’ve seen some positive regression in the catch rate. The volume is too hard to ignore and I think Thomas continues his recent surge in production.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 65.5 Receiving Yards

WR Travis Hunter
Travis Hunter presents a less appealing option this week, despite a potentially negative game script for the Jaguars. On the season, Hunter has caught 20 of 31 targets (64.5%) for 197 yards, but has yet to find the end zone. Last week, he had 4 catches for 15 yards on 7 targets. His advanced metrics show a 14.7% target share, contributing 14.9% of the team's receiving yards, with a lower 9.85 yards per reception and 16.6% air yardage share compared to other primary receivers. He primarily operates from the slot (64.3%). The matchup against the Los Angeles Rams offers some potential positives for slot receivers, as the Rams allow the 13th most receiving yards to the slot (70.5 per game) and the 19th highest catch rate (69.6%). However, they also give up the 30th lowest yards per target (5.35) to slot receivers, suggesting that while volume might be there, efficiency could be limited. Given Hunter's somewhat inconsistent production, lower yards per reception, and the Rams' ability to limit yards after the catch to slot receivers, relying on him for receiving yardage seems like the wrong choice. While a negative game script could lead to more passing attempts, Hunter's overall efficiency and the tough nature of the Rams' defense make him a player to fade this week.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Hunter Long
Long's season stats are limited but efficient, with 9 catches on 11 targets (81.8%) for 63 yards and 2 touchdowns. Last week, he saw 2 catches for 19 yards on 3 targets, signaling a middling but involved role without Strange. His advanced metrics show 7.0 yards per reception and 2.78 yards after the catch per reception, suggesting he's more of a short-yardage and red-zone threat given his 2 touchdowns on limited yardage. He operates across various alignments: inline (41.9%), slot (34.9%), and out wide (22.1%). he most significant factor is the hip injury to Brenton Strange, which has placed him on IR. This immediately elevates Long to the primary tight end role for the Jaguars, guaranteeing an increased snap share and target volume. The matchup against the Los Angeles Rams' defense for tight ends is mixed. While the Rams allow the 9th most targets (7.83) and 16th most receptions (5.5) per game to tight ends, they also concede the 11th fewest receiving yards (46.0) to the position. This suggests that while Long might see a decent number of targets and catches, long downfield plays might be limited. However, his red-zone efficiency and increased role make him a potential touchdown candidate and a viable option for receptions, even if receiving yards remain modest.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Reception (+140)

I get Puka will be out but this comes down to who do I trust more and that is by far Matthew Stafford backed by this great defense. I hate London games so I'm not putting my money where my mouth is here but my picks are Rams -2.5 and the Under 44.5 

Best Bet Rams -2.5 -125
Lean Under 44.5 -115
Score Prediction Rams 24 Jags 20

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Rams):  Kyren Williams  -140

Kyren Williams has found the end zone at least once in 4 of his first 6 games, while scoring 5 touchdowns total. The Rams RB has 2 rushing TDs and 3 receiving TDS on the season. Williams should get a majority of the snaps for LA in a game they are expected to control through the air. Kyren can absolutely still score on the ground, but given his expected involvement in the passing game, coupled with the Jaguars allowing the 3rd most pass YPG, Williams has a great chance to find paydirt again.

Best Play (Jaguars):  Brian Thomas Jr. +170

Despite a down season so far, BTJ continues to be a target hog. We've finally started seeing positive regression in the catch rate and the drops have decreased the last couple weeks. He's primed to take on the full alpha WR1 role and the books haven't adjusted yet.

 

First TD Picks

Best Play (Rams):  Davante Adams  +500

Scoring the First TD at +500 may not look like sexy odds, but this is incredible value when you consider that Jacksonville’s secondary is allowing an NFL-high, 151 yards YPG receiving to WR aligned out wide. Davante Adams ranks 2nd among NFL receivers in end zone targets (11) and 3rd in red zone target share (38.8%), while getting 68.8% of the Rams end zone targets. Without Puka Nacua on the field, Adams is most likely going to be Matthew Stafford’s first read throughout the day in London.

Longshot (Jaguars): Hunter Long +2700

Long was a redzone hog before Strange went down! Now he's the primary pass catching TE in this offense and should still be heavily relied on in the Endzone. As a primarily inline player, he's a prime play action option near the goal line.

 

 

Parlay #1 (Rams):  Best Play  +283  (FanDuel)

Matthew Stafford 225+ Pass Yards

Matthew Stafford 2 Pass TDs

Kyren Williams 15+ Receiving Yards

Davante Adams 70+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Jaguars):  Best Play  +264 (DraftKings)

Trevor Lawrence INT

Brian Thomas Jr. 40+ Receiving Yards

Travis Etienne under 58.5 Rushing Yards

 

Parlay #1 (Rams):  Longshot  +2303  (FanDuel)

Matthew Stafford 275+ Pass Yards

Davante Adams 100+ Receiving Yards

Davante Adams 2+ TDs

Kyren Williams Anytime TD

QB Geno Smith

 

QB Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes has returned to peak form, commanding the Kansas City offense with both efficiency and explosiveness. In last week’s win over Detroit, he completed 22 of 30 passes for 257 yards and three touchdowns, adding 32 yards and a rushing score — his fourth multi-touchdown performance in the first six games. The Raiders’ heavy reliance on Cover 3 (44%) should play directly into Mahomes’ strengths. Against that coverage shell, he’s averaging 9.0 yards per attempt and a 105.4 passer rating while also using his legs to extend plays, logging 61 rushing yards on 64 dropbacks against the look. Las Vegas’ defense ranks middle-of-the-pack in passing yards allowed (231.8 per game), but their zone-heavy structure tends to leave voids underneath — an area Mahomes attacks with rhythm throws and option routes. Expect Kansas City to use layered concepts that stretch the Raiders’ safeties and open throwing lanes for Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Mahomes’ pre-snap recognition and ability to manipulate coverage rotations should allow him to sustain drives and create explosive plays off broken structure.

Suggested Play:

'O' 258.5 Pass Yards (-120)

 

RB Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco continues to serve as Kansas City’s tone-setter in the run game, logging over 70% of offensive snaps in consecutive weeks. Against Detroit, he carried 12 times for 51 yards and added one reception, displaying the burst and contact balance that have become his calling card. His physical running style and improved patience behind zone-blocking looks have helped him generate four runs of 15+ yards last week alone, per Next Gen Stats. The Raiders’ defense, while stout against the run (eighth-fewest rushing yards allowed per game at 75.8), has shown vulnerability to second-level cuts and misdirection runs due to overpursuit from linebackers. Expect Andy Reid to incorporate wide zone and counter concepts early, allowing Pacheco to exploit backside seams. His red-zone usage remains strong — leading all Chiefs running backs in inside-the-five carries — and his growing involvement in the passing game (50% route share) increases his overall impact potential.

Suggested Play: 

Anytime TD (+190)

 

WR Rashee Rice

Rashee Rice’s return adds a critical dimension to Kansas City’s passing game. When healthy, he’s been Mahomes’ most reliable chain-mover, averaging 8 catches and 96 yards per game last season before injury. Against a Raiders defense that leans heavily on zone coverage, Rice’s precision in spacing and his ability to find soft pockets between linebackers make him an ideal weapon. His 4.12 yards per route run versus Cover 3 last year underscores how dangerous he can be when given room to operate. Expect Reid to script early targets from the slot and motion alignments designed to isolate Rice on slower defenders. With Mahomes’ quick release and Rice’s yards-after-catch skill set, short completions could turn into chunk gains quickly. If the Raiders try to bracket Kelce, Rice could easily lead the team in receptions and targets.

Suggested Play: 

Over Receptions once available

 

WR Xavier Worthy

Xavier Worthy’s usage dipped slightly last week, but his speed remains a constant threat to opposing defenses. Even on a limited 68% route share, he found the end zone on one of his two catches — a reminder of his vertical playmaking ability. Against the Raiders’ Cover 3-heavy scheme, Worthy’s ability to stretch the seams and challenge deep third defenders becomes critical. Las Vegas has allowed the second-most receiving yards (136.5 per game) to wideouts aligned outside, and Worthy’s 2.35 yards per route run against that coverage suggests another big-play opportunity is coming. Expect Mahomes to test the Raiders’ safeties early with play-action shots, particularly off condensed formations that create one-on-one looks downfield. Even if volume remains modest, Worthy’s game-breaking speed makes him a likely candidate for a splash play or red-zone strike.

Suggested Play:

'O' 23.5 Yard Long Reception (-120)

 

TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce remains the centerpiece of Kansas City’s passing rhythm, maintaining elite efficiency despite defensive attention. He’s recorded at least four receptions and 47+ yards in five straight games, and his chemistry with Mahomes continues to be unmatched. The Raiders’ defense, while improved, struggles to contain tight ends working the seams — allowing nearly 10 yards per target when linebackers are isolated. Against Cover 3 looks, Kelce thrives at exploiting the void between the hook and curl zones, averaging 2.78 yards per route run in those scenarios. With Las Vegas likely to rotate safeties toward Worthy or Rice, Kelce should find favorable leverage on crossing routes and sit-down zones near the hashes. Mahomes will look to him early on third downs and in the red zone, where Kelce remains one of the league’s most efficient scorers.

Suggested Play: 

'O' 41.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Anytime TD (+165)

Rashee Rice is back! This Chiefs team has been playing unreal and they look like that 2023 team. Last year the Chiefs never looked good but something has clicked. The Raiders last 2 road games have allowed 41 & 40 points... I think the Chiefs can have a TON of success here

Best Bet Chiefs 'O' 27.5 Pts -135
Lean Over 45.5 -110
Score Prediction Raiders 17 Chiefs 30

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Raiders): Michael Mayer +400

Michael Mayer’s return from concussion protocol couldn’t have been timed better. With Brock Bowers sidelined, Mayer stepped into a featured role, drawing a 30% target share and logging over 90% of offensive snaps in the Week 6 win over Tennessee. His presence gives Geno Smith a dependable target against Kansas City’s aggressive coverage unit, which has surrendered the seventh-fewest yards to tight ends but remains vulnerable in the seams when linebackers are pulled toward play-action. Mayer’s 1.11 yards per route run against two-high coverage makes him one of the Raiders’ few players capable of exploiting the Chiefs’ defensive tendencies. Expect him to be utilized on intermediate crossers and red-zone isolation looks, where his size and body control can give Smith a safer throwing window. If the Raiders can sustain drives, Mayer’s role as a chain-mover and goal-line threat should remain prominent.

 

Best Bet (Chiefs) Travis Kelce +165

Travis Kelce remains the centerpiece of Kansas City’s passing rhythm, maintaining elite efficiency despite defensive attention. He’s recorded at least four receptions and 47+ yards in five straight games, and his chemistry with Mahomes continues to be unmatched. The Raiders’ defense, while improved, struggles to contain tight ends working the seams — allowing nearly 10 yards per target when linebackers are isolated. Against Cover 3 looks, Kelce thrives at exploiting the void between the hook and curl zones, averaging 2.78 yards per route run in those scenarios. With Las Vegas likely to rotate safeties toward Worthy or Rice, Kelce should find favorable leverage on crossing routes and sit-down zones near the hashes. Mahomes will look to him early on third downs and in the red zone, where Kelce remains one of the league’s most efficient scorers.

 

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Raiders) Ashton Jeanty +650

Ashton Jeanty has become the tone-setter for this Raiders offense, and if Las Vegas finds the end zone first on Sunday, he’s the most logical candidate to get them there. Over the last three weeks, Jeanty has averaged nearly 22 touches per game while commanding over 70% of the team’s red-zone opportunities. His balance and burst through the second level have allowed the Raiders to sustain drives despite Geno Smith’s turnover issues. Kansas City’s defense is elite against the pass but far more human against the run, ranking just 16th in rushing yards allowed per game (87.0) and conceding 2.31 yards before contact per carry — the fourth-highest rate in the league. That interior softness gives Jeanty a favorable setup near the goal line, especially with Las Vegas likely emphasizing the run early to control tempo. Expect Josh McDaniels to script the opening drive around ball control and clock management, relying on Jeanty’s patience and power between the tackles. If the Raiders’ first drive crosses midfield, Jeanty’s volume and red-zone presence make him the clear favorite to cap it off.

 

Longshot (Chiefs) Isiah Pacheco +650

 

The Raiders’ defense, while disciplined, can be exploited early on the ground. They allow just 75.8 rushing yards per game overall, but their biggest weakness comes on scripted drives — surrendering points on 58% of opponents’ first possessions, the third-worst mark in the NFL. Kansas City often scripts their opening series to establish rhythm through balance, using Pacheco to complement Mahomes’ early play-action looks. His burst through first contact (2.8 yards after contact per attempt) and nose for the end zone make him the most logical candidate to finish off the opening drive if Kansas City marches downfield.

With Mahomes’ eyes keeping linebackers honest and the Chiefs’ offense returning to its balanced roots, Pacheco should see his number called inside the five. The tone he sets often dictates how Kansas City plays the rest of the game — and in this matchup, the first punch may belong to him.

 Parlay #1 (Raiders) +250

Ashton Jeanty ATD

Geno Smith 'U' 225.5 Pass Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Chiefs) +800

Travis Kelce 'O' 41.5 Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce ATD
Isiah Pacheco ATD

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua is averaging 202.2 passing yards per game, 6.66 YPA, a 69.8% completion rate, and 11 total passing TDs. He’ll face a Browns defense that ranks 6^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed yet have allowed the 7^th fewest passing yards per game. The Browns are 17^th in pressure rate on the season (38.7%) and that is down to 32.3% in the last 3 weeks. The ability to pressure Tua is important, as he averages 7.55 YPA and a 75.9% completion in a clean pocket, compared to 3.98 YPA and a 51.1% completion rate against pressure. The Browns have an elite run defense, ranking #1 in EPA/Rush allowed and have allowed the 3^rd fewest rushing YPG (79.7). I expect the Dolphins to try to attack this defense with a pass heavy attack. The Browns run single-high at the 3^rd highest rate (61.3%) and man at the 3^rd highest rate (39.8%). Tua averages 6.86 YPA and a 59.1% completion rate against single-high. He averages 6.00 YPA and a 67.6% completion rate against man. This game has just a 39.5-point implied total and the Dolphins are 2.5-point underdogs. Vegas is not expecting much offense in this 1 against a good Cleveland defense. Just got word as I was writing this up that Cleveland is expecting thunderstorms and 44 MPH wind gusts during this game. Lines moved drastically as a result.

Suggested Pick:

Under 219.5 Passing Yards (-115) *Play to 199.5*

 

RB De’Von Achane

Achane is averaging 65 rushing yards per game on an efficient 5.13 YPC. He went off last week for 128 rushing yards and 2 TDs against the Chargers. This will be a much tougher matchup against the Browns, who are #1 in EPA/Rush allowed and have allowed the 3^rd fewest rushing yards per game (79.7). The Browns are allowing 2.87 YPC (2^nd lowest) and a 37.7% success rate (3^rd lowest) on man/gap concepts. This accounts for 24 of Achane’s rush attempts, where he’s averaging 6.46 YPC and a 50% success rate. The Browns have been relatively weaker, yet still strong, against zone concept, allowing 3.61 YPC (9^th lowest) and a 43.1% success rate (10^th lowest). Achane has 47 attempts out of this concept, but has been less efficient, averaging 4.34 YPC and a 40.4% success rate. This is a matchup where I’m fading Achane in the run game. In the receiving game, Achane has a 70.6% route participation rate, averaging 32.5 yards per game. He's averaging 1.31 YPRR and 26% TPRR. The Browns have allowed the 3^rd fewest receiving yards per game to RB and are #1 in EPA/Pass allowed to opposing backfields. The Browns run single-high at the 3^rd highest rate (61.3%) and man at the 3^rd highest rate (39.8%). Achane averages 1.16 YPRR and 24% TPRR against single-high. He averages 1.52 YPRR and 22% TPRR against man coverage. This is a spot where I’m fading Achane in the running game and passing in the receiving game.

Suggested Pick:

Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

 

WR Jaylen Waddle

Prior to Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, Waddle averaged 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.75 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 25.6% 1^st-read rate. In the 2 games without Tyreek, he’s averaging 102.5 receiving yards per game, 3.66 YPRR, 30% TPRR and a 35.6% 1^st-read rate. Waddle and the Dolphins will play in Cleveland this weekend, and the forecast is calling for thunderstorms and 44 MPH wind gusts. Passing and receiving lines have seen heavy downward pressure as a result. Waddle has primarily lined up out wide, at a 77.8% rate. The Browns are 4^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed but are 18^th in receiving yards allowed to wide alignment. The Browns run single-high at the 3^rd highest rate (61.3%) and man at the 3^rd highest rate (39.8%). On the season, Waddle is averaging 3.13 YPRR and 32% TPRR against single-high. That compares to 1.96 YPRR and 19% TPRR against two-high. Against man, Waddle averages 2.13 YPRR and 29% TPRR this season. He’s averaging 2.63 YPRR and 24% TPRR against zone coverage. With the weather implications, I’m expecting short throws. Considering Waddle has positive TPRR splits against the Browns schematics (plus the forecast), I’m targeting Waddle’s over on receptions but under on receiving yards.

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (-150)

6+ Receptions (+129)

Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

 

WR Malik Washington

In the 2 games post Tyreek Hill’s season ending injury, Washington has a 53.9% route participation rate, averaging 0.54 YPRR and 24% TPRR. This passing offense has consolidated to Waddle and Waller. Malik and the Dolphins will play in Cleveland this weekend, and the forecast is calling for thunderstorms and 44 MPH wind gusts. On the season, Washington is lining out of the slot on 55.1% of his routes and out wide on 40.2%. There have not been any meaningful changes in role since the Tyreek injury. The Browns are 5^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed to the slot yet have allowed the 12^th fewest yards per game to that alignment. The Browns run single-high at the 3^rd highest rate (61.3%) and man at the 3^rd highest rate (39.8%). On the season, Malik is averaging 0.33 YPRR and 22% TPRR against single-high. That compares to 0.67 YPRR and 17% TPRR against two-high. Against man this season, Malik has caught 2 of 4 targets for 3 yards on 27 routes. Malik has caught 12 of 18 targets for 62 receiving yards on 95 routes against zone this season. Malik does not currently have lines listed and with the weather implications, I’d rather just pass.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

TE Darren Waller

Waller has seen an increased route participation rate every week, from 37% week 4, 65% week 5 and 75% week 6. Waller is averaging 39 receiving yards per game, 1.86 YPRR, 19% TPRR and a 15.4% 1^st-read rate. He has 4 TDs in just 3 weeks. Coach McDaniels is using him all over, he’s lined up 38.1% of the time out wide, 39.7% from the slot and 22.2% from inline. With Tyreek out for the season, Waller is the secondary option behind Waddle. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that has allowed the 7^th fewest receiving yards to TE. The forecast for this game is not pretty, as they are calling for thunderstorms and 44 MPH wind gusts in Cleveland. The Browns run single-high at the 3^rd highest rate (61.3%) and man at the 3^rd highest rate (39.8%). In a larger sample size back in 2023 with the Giants, Waller averaged 1.85 YPRR and 25% TPRR against single-high. Those were positive splits compared to two-high, where he averaged 1.49 YPRR and 19% TPRR. Against man back in 2023, he averaged 1.16 YPRR and 28% TPRR. That compared to 1.92 YPRR and 21% TPRR against zone. With the weather conditions, I’m expecting short designed pass attempts that try to rely on skill player’s YAC. I don’t mind Waller’s over 3.5 receptions line.

Suggested Pick:

Over 3.5 Receptions (+100)

We are expected a 94% chance of rain and average 36 miles per hour wind gust with temps in the mid-60s. Im taking the under! 

Best Bet Under 36.5 -110
Lean Browns -2.5 -110
Score Prediction Dolphins 14 Browns 17

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Browns): Harold Fannin +325

Rookie tight end Harold Fannin continues to emerge as a steady contributor, particularly with David Njoku dealing with lingering knee issues. Fannin’s seven-catch, 81-yard performance in Pittsburgh showcased his chemistry with Gabriel and his ability to find open space against zone coverage. His size and smooth release make him a reliable outlet when pressure closes in, and Miami’s defense — which ranks among the league’s worst in yards allowed to tight ends — sets up another favorable matchup. Expect Cleveland to feature Fannin in play-action concepts and quick seam routes to attack Miami’s linebackers, who have struggled in coverage assignments all season. If Njoku remains limited, Fannin could once again see near every-down usage and function as Gabriel’s safety valve in high-traffic areas of the field.

 

Best Bet (Dolphins): Darren Waller (+285)

Waller has scored 4 TDs in 3 games with the Dolphins. His route participation rate increased to a healthy 75% last week. It’s clear that McDaniels has made Waller a focal point in this offense, especially in the red zone. With Tyreek gone, Waller operates as the 2^nd receiving option behind Waddle (if you don’t count Achane). Ugly weather where I don’t expect much scoring, but the Browns are the best rush defense in the league, so I’d rather target the receiving option than rely on the run game in a brutal matchup.

 

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Browns) Quinshon Judkins +325

Quinshon Judkins enters this matchup in a prime position to open the scoring for Cleveland. Despite last week’s rough outing against Pittsburgh’s front, his role as the Browns’ early-down workhorse remains untouched — commanding over 70% of the backfield carries and virtually all red-zone rushing opportunities. Miami’s defense has been especially susceptible to physical runners between the tackles, giving up a league-high 134.3 rushing yards per game and multiple first-quarter touchdowns to running backs in three of their last four contests. Cleveland’s offensive philosophy under Kevin Stefanski leans on establishing rhythm through the ground game, particularly on scripted opening drives where Judkins’ downhill style helps set the tone. Expect the Browns to test Miami’s interior early, running power and counter looks to create cutback lanes. If Cleveland gets into scoring range on their first or second possession, Judkins is the most likely candidate to punch it in from close.

 

Best Bet (Dolphins) Jaylen Waddle (+850)

Since Tyreek has not played, Waddle has stepped in as the clear number 1 option. He has been targeted on 30% of his routes and commands a 35.6% 1^st-read rate. Weather is not pretty, but Waddle still can break an explosive play on short yardage throws with his speed. I want to avoid Achane here against the league's best rush defense, so I’ll go with the clear #1 receiver.

 Parlay #1 (Browns) +350

Dillon Gabriel 'O' 1.5 TDs

Jerry Jeudy 'O' 47.5 Receiving Yards

Quinshon Judkins ATD

Parlay #2 (Dolphins) +1000

Jaylen Waddle Under 58.5 Receiving Yards

Jaylen Waddle 7+ Receptions

QB Drake Maye

Maye is averaging 253.7 passing yards per game, 8.50 YPA, a 73.2% completion rate and he’s thrown 10 total TDs. He’ll face a Titans defense ranking 10^th worst in EPA/Pass but allow the 14^th fewest passing yards per game (221.5), partially due to the fact opponents have had comfortable leads against the Titans. The Titans fired their head coach Brian Callahan this week and Mike McCoy will take over as interim head coach. Some of their tendencies may change as a result. The Titans have blitzed at the 3^rd lowest rate (16.6%) and have generated pressure at the 10^th lowest rate (35.4%). Maye is averaging 8.27 YPA and a 73.8% completion rate when not blitzed, compared to 9.06 YPA and a 71.7% completion rate when blitzed. The Titans are allowing the 3^rd most YPA (12.28) and the 3^rd highest completion rate (57.4%) on targets 10+ yards downfield. Maye averages the 3^rd most YPA (13.19) and the 2^nd highest completion rate (67.7%) on targets 10+ yards downfield amongst starting QBs. The Patriots are 7-point favorites, so this could be a situation where they lean on the run as the game progresses. However, this team has struggled in the run game, averaging the 4^th fewest YPC (3.47).  They will likely need to throw the ball to gain a lead and expect some explosive plays against a defense that has struggled against the deep ball.

Suggested Pick:

Over 229.5 Passing Yards (-120)

250+ Passing Yards (+135)

 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson saw his highest snap share (70.7%) of the season last week in the first game without Gibson. He was unable to do much with his opportunities against the Saints, carrying the ball 13 times for 18 yards (1.38 YPC). He’ll face a Titans defense that ranks 20^th in EPA/Rush allowed and has allowed the 12^th most YPC (4.48). They have allowed the 3^rd lowest success rate against zone concept runs (37.5%) but have allowed the 15^th highest success rate against man/gap. 68.6% of Stevenson’s attempts have been in man/gap concept, where he’s averaging 3.23 YPC and a 40% success rate. That compares to 2.54 YPC and a 23.1% success rate on zone concepts. Stevenson also dominated the RBs in route share last week (48.4% to Henderson’s 19.4%). He was targeted just once, and it was registered as a drop.  On the season, Stevenson is averaging 25.7 receiving yards per game, 1.77 YPRR and 17% TPRR. He’ll face a Titans defense that has allowed the 18^th most receiving YPG and has the 15^th worst EPA/Pass allowed to opposing backfields. Despite the expected bullish game script, it is tough to trust this Patriots rushing offense.

Suggested Pick:

Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

 

RB Treveyon Henderson

In the first game without Antonio Gibson, TreVeyon received just a 29.3% snap rate. He’s now averaging a 36.8% snap rate on the season. His route share was also not encouraging, at just a 19.4% rate to Rhamondre’s 48.4% rate last week. Until we see differently, it does not look like the rookie RB will be taking over this backfield any time soon. He’s averaging 24.7 rushing yards per game on 3.61 YPC. He has just a 34.1% success rate (40^th/50) and he’s forced just 3 missed tackles on 41 attempts. Henderson has better splits in zone concepts, where he’s averaging 3.50 YPC and a 56.3% success rate. That compares to 2.96 YPC and a 34.8% success rate in man/gap concepts. The Titans have allowed the 3^rd lowest success rate against zone concept runs (37.5%) but have allowed the 15^th highest success rate against man/gap. Treveyon’s usage and productivity has not been encouraging, I’ll pass.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

WR Stefon Diggs

Diggs is averaging 64.5 receiving yards per game, 2.91 YPRR, a 28% TPRR and a 23.2% 1^st-read rate. He’ll face a Titans defense ranking 10^th worst in EPA/Pass but allow the 14^th fewest passing yards per game (221.5), partially due to the fact opponents have had comfortable leads against the Titans. Diggs has lined up out wide on 57.9% of his routes and in the slot on 42.1%. The Titans are allowing the T-5^th most YPRR (2.37) to wide alignment and the 10^th most YPRR (1.87) to the slot. The Titans are allowing the 3^rd most YPA (12.28) and the 3^rd highest completion rate (57.4%) on targets 10+ yards downfield. Diggs is 2^nd on the team in receiving yards on targets 10+ yards downfield. He’s averaging 4.29 YPRR and has a 69.2% catch rate. It’s tough to trust the schematic tendencies with head coach Brian Callahan being fired this week, but it’s notable they have played two-high at the 2^nd highest rate this season (61.1%). Diggs averages 1.88 YPRR and 28% TPRR against two-high this season. That compares to 3.95 YPRR and 27% TPRR against single-high. With the Patriots implied to score 24.75 points by the books and their inability to run, I like Diggs overs.

Suggested Pick:

Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

 

WR Kayshon Boutte

Boutte is averaging 50.5 receiving yards per game, 2.03 YPRR and he’s been targeted on 15% of his routes. He is 3^rd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 14.4%. He has had a couple of spike games that have helped his numbers, with 103 receiving yards in week 1 and 93 last week. He’ll face a Titans defense ranking 10^th worst in EPA/Pass but allow the 14^th fewest passing yards per game (221.5), partially due to the fact opponents have had comfortable leads against the Titans. Boutte has lined up out wide on 91.9% of his routes. The Titans rank 3^rd worst in EPA/Pass allowed, but the 16^th most receiving yards to wide alignment. The Titans are allowing the 3^rd most YPA (12.28) and the 3^rd highest completion rate (57.4%) on targets 10+ yards downfield. Boutte leads the team in receiving yards on targets 10+ yards downfield. He’s averaging 44.5 receiving yards per game and has a 77.8% catch rate on targets 10+ yards downfield. It’s tough to trust the schematic tendencies with head coach Brian Callahan being fired this week, but it’s notable they have played two-high at the 2^nd highest rate this season (61.1%). Boutte has negative splits against two-high, averaging 1.44 YPRR and 9% TPRR.

Suggested Pick:

Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

TE Hunter Henry

Henry is averaging 46.2 receiving yards per game, 1.82 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. His 1^st-read rate is 2^nd on the team at 20%. Henry primarily lines up in the slot (41.4%) and inline (33.6%). The Titans have allowed the 11^th most YPRR (1.79) and the 16^th most receiving yards per game (92.5) to these 2 alignments. The Titans are allowing the 3^rd most YPA (12.28) and the 3^rd highest completion rate (57.4%) on targets 10+ yards downfield. Henry is 3^rd on the team in receiving yards on targets 10+ yards downfield (160) and has a 64.3% catch rate. It’s tough to trust the schematic tendencies with head coach Brian Callahan being fired this week, but it’s notable they have played two-high at the 2^nd highest rate this season (61.1%). Henry is averaging 1.56 YPRR and 20% TPRR against two-high. Henry has been the main target for Maye in the redzone. He’s averaging 1.90 YPRR and his TPRR increases to 35%. The Titans just gave up 50 yards and a TD to Michael Mayer last week. If I’m targeting Henry, I prefer his anytime TD.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime TD (+225)

QB Cam Ward
Cam Ward gave us another underwhelming week to add to an uninspiring season. While he achieved a season-high 68.4% completion rate last week, this came with a low 5.8 yards per pass attempt and two turnovers, which is consistent with his overall season struggles - a 55.0% completion rate, 5.45 YPA, and a 67.3 passer rating. Among 33 quarterbacks, he ranks near the bottom in completion rate (33rd), yards per game (30th), and adjusted completion percentage (32nd). The firing of head coach Brian Callahan could signal changes, but Ward's consistent struggles and potential absence of top receiver Calvin Ridley make him difficult to trust. The upcoming matchup against New England offers a glimmer of hope, as the Patriots have allowed the 3rd highest completion rate (71.9%) and 2nd highest yards per attempt (8.3). New England also runs man coverage at the 8th highest rate (31.9%), utilizing Cover 1 and Cover 3 schemes, which could be exploited if Ward can improve his downfield accuracy (his 8.11 aDOT is 11th among DBs). However, his low 1st read rate (30th) suggests he may struggle to capitalize on quick reads against man coverage. If you are looking at overs, it’ll have to be in the completions department given the matchup, but he’s not someone I’m looking to back here.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 202.5 Passing Yards (-115)
‘U’ 1.5 Touchdowns (-235)

 

RB Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard's betting outlook this week is concerning. Despite being the primary back for the Titans, his season stats of 92 carries for 362 yards (3.9 YPC) and 2 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 79 yards, paint a picture of inefficiency. His advanced metrics among 36 qualified running backs are equally unimpressive: 3.93 YPC (26th), a low 2.2% explosive run rate (28th), and a concerning 45.7% stuff rate (17th). Last week's performance of 10 carries for 34 yards and 2 catches for 13 yards further solidifies this trend. The matchup against the New England Patriots is particularly unfavorable. The Patriots boast a good run defense, allowing the second-lowest yards per carry (3.1) to running backs and the second-lowest yards allowed before contact (0.6). This suggests Pollard will face significant resistance and limited opportunities for big plays behind the 22nd ranked offensive line in terms of run blocking. Compounding these issues is his decreasing snap share, trending towards a 50/50 split with teammate Spears (Pollard at 42.4% last week). Furthermore, quarterback Cam Ward has the lowest running back target rate in the league (9.3%), which limits Pollard's potential in the passing game.

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 13.5 Carries (-150)
‘U’ 10.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

RB Tyjae Spears
While his season rushing stats (9 carries for 45 yards, 0 TD) are limited due to a recent return from IR, his advanced metrics show promise with 5 yards per carry and a 75% success rate in zone concepts on 45 attempts. However, he has yet to record an explosive run of 15+ yards. Last week, Spears saw increased usage, carrying the ball 5 times for 31 yards and catching 4 passes for 19 yards. This elevated involvement, especially in the passing game, is something that should only grow in coming weeks. He ran significantly more pass routes (23) compared to Tony Pollard (13), suggesting a growing role as a receiver. This is particularly relevant given the likely negative game script the Titans will face against the Patriots, which often leads to more passing volume. Despite a tough matchup against a stout Patriots run defense that allows minimal yards per carry and before contact, Spears' potential in the passing game offers more hope than Pollard’s. His increasing usage and the anticipated game flow make him a more appealing bet for receiving yards than rushing yards in this specific matchup.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 10.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
‘O’ 37.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

 

WR Calvin Ridley
Calvin Ridley is currently highly uncertain due to a hamstring injury sustained in Week 6, which has him questionable for Week 7. Before the injury, Ridley's season has been mixed - 16 catches on 35 targets (45.7%) for 290 yards and no touchdowns. His advanced metrics show he's a significant part of the offense when healthy, with a 16.3% target share, accounting for 26.3% of team receiving yards, and an impressive 18.13 yards per reception. He also boasts a 30.2% air yardage share, indicating a deep threat role (when Cam can get it there), primarily lining up out wide (74.7%). A positive aspect is his strong performance against zone coverage, owning the 13th highest target rate in such schemes. This could be advantageous if he plays, as the Patriots utilize primarily zone coverage. However, I don’t think he plays here. If Ridley is sidelined, the passing game will likely funnel through Ayomanor, Jefferson, Lockett, and Chimere Dike, significantly impacting Ward's already inconsistent production. Given the uncertainty surrounding his hamstring injury, betting on Ridley is risky. Let’s see if he plays, but if he does I don’t want to touch any of his props unless they are outrageously high or low.

Suggested Picks
Likely PASS

 

WR Elic Ayomanor
Elic Ayomanor presents an interesting option, particularly if Calvin Ridley is sidelined or limited by his hamstring injury. So far this season, Ayomanor has caught 17 of 34 targets (50%) for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns. His advanced metrics indicate he's a significant part of the passing game, with a 15.8% target share, contributing 17.8% of the team's receiving yards, and commanding a healthy 29.3% air yardage share. He primarily operates as an outside receiver, lining up out wide on 90.4% of snaps. Last week, he secured 3 catches for 27 yards on 5 targets. While Van Jefferson saw an immediate boost after Ridley's exit, Ayomanor's consistent role as an outside threat positions him well against the Patriots' defense. New England has shown vulnerability to outside receivers, allowing the 4th highest out-wide receiving yards per game (124.5), a high target-per-route-run rate (0.24), and a generous passer rating (117.8) when targeting these players. Despite the emergence of Jefferson last week with Ridley out, the favorable matchup against the Patriots' outside coverage and Ayomanor's ability as a downfield threat makes him an intriguing option in what should be a negative game script.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been “ok” this season, but mostly used as an outlet option. So far this season, Okonkwo has caught 23 of 30 passes (76.6%) for 218 yards, though he has yet to score a touchdown. His advanced metrics highlight his efficiency, with 9.48 yards per reception and an impressive 6.83 yards after the catch per reception. He operates across various formations, splitting his time between inline (40.9%), slot (46.2%), and wide (11.8%) alignments. Last week, Okonkwo had a productive outing, securing 6 catches for 46 yards on 6 targets. While rookie Gunnar Helm is still involved, Okonkwo's significantly higher snap count (31 pass snaps to Helm's 17) reinforces that he’s the tight end #1 in this offense. The matchup against the Patriots is favorable for tight ends. New England allows the 13th most receptions per game (5.67), 16th most targets (7.17), and the 6th most receiving yards per game (66.5) to the position. This, combined with Okonkwo's role as potentially Cam Ward's security blanket, especially if Ridley misses the game, positions him for some involvement.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-105)

I really like this Patriots team. Drake Maye's film is unreal and I expect them to crush this Titans team who just fired their Head Coach. 

Best Bet Patriots -6.5 
Lean Patriots 'O' 23.5 -120
Score Prediction Patriots 27 Titans 14

Anytime TD Scorer

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +210

Henry has 3 touchdowns this season and has positive splits in the redzone. He averages 1.82 YPRR and 20% TPRR overall, but those rates increase to 1.90 YPRR and 35% TPRR in the red zone. The Titans just gave up 50 yards and a TD to Michael Mayer last week. I like Henry to find the endzone this week after not scoring the past 2 weeks.

Elic Ayomanor (Titans) +285

With Ridley expected out, Ayomanor should operate as Cam's top target this week. Ayomanor already leads the team in passing catching touchdown and can score on the long ball or being a big body up close.

First TD Scorer

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +1100

Same analysis as anytime, Henry is Maye’s favorite target in the redzone evident by the splits mentioned in the anytime write up. He’s due and I’d rather target the passing game then the struggling Patriots run offense.

Chimere Dike (Titans) +2600

Dike continues to lead the Titans in redzone targets and is used in a multitude of ways. He can score as a receiver, runner or returner. The Titans have yet to score a first TD this season, so you might as well take a longer shot here.

Parlay #1 (+420)

Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards

Stefon Diggs 50+ Receiving Yards

Kayshon Boutte Over 32.5 Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Titans): +299

NE Patriots ML

Cam Ward under 198.5 Passing Yards

Elic Ayomanor 30+ Receiving Yards

QB Bryce Young

Despite the fact that Bryce Young is coming off one of the most productive games in his NFL career against the Cowboys, I am still fading his passing yards this Sunday. He’s finished with 198 yards or less in 4 of his 6 games this season, and those came against Dallas (199) and on the road in Arizona (328). It should be noted, however, that Carolina was down multiple scores to the Cardinals and the greater majority of those passing yards came during garbage time. The Panthers also have a suddenly strong running game that’s emerged, and this Sunday it will feature the two-headed monster of Chubba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle. Young will also face a NYJ defense who is allowing just 207.5 pass YPG. Perhaps, the most glaring thing to point out is this will be a road game for Bryce Young, and he’s performed horribly away from Carolina this season. The 2023 #1 overall draft pick has completed only 71 of 120 pass-attempts (59.1%) for 632 yards, throwing 5 TDs and 3 INTs while averaging just 5.77 YPA. When you go back and factor in that 328 of this total came against Arizona, it really puts this number in perspective. More. This scenario is nothing new for Young, whose overall career numbers are nothing short of abysmal on the road. In 18 road games, Young has an overall record of 1-17, and he’s finished with 199 yards or more just 7 times. This is one of those games I expect to be very low scoring. The Jets have already limited Josh Allen, Bo Nix and Tua Tagovailoa to under 199 pass yards. Between the Jets defense, along with Young’s propensity to perform poorly away from Carolina, I fully expect the Panthers QB to fall well below his set total for this Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Bryce Young u199.5 Pass Yards (-161)

 

RB Rico Dowdle

Dave Canales told reporters on Friday that Carolina’s coaching staff has determined who will start and get most of the reps on Sunday between Rico Dowdle and Chubba Hubbard, but for whatever reason the Panthers head coach is keeping a tight lid on this decision. When you consider that Hubbard was limited in practice both Wednesday and Thursday, and factor in how Dowdle has performed over the past 2 weeks it leads me to believe we should see a heavier load out of Rico on Sunday. The 27-year old out of South Carolina has done something thought to be impossible, and that’s breathe life into the Panthers offense. Dowdle has posted 200+ all-purpose yards in 2 straight games, and he has the confidence of his teammates. This is going to be a grind-it-out throwback game, and Rico matches up well against a Jets defense that locks down RB’s in the passing game but is susceptible to allowing yards on the ground. In fact, NY is giving up the 10th most rush yards to opposing RBs (98.7 YPG) after 6 games played.

Suggested Bet:

Rico Dowdle 60+ Rush Yards (-120)

 

WR Tetairoa McMillan

Taking a deep look inside Tetairoa McMillan’s matchup this Sunday against the Jets makes me all the more confident in Bryce Young’s under-passing yards total. McMillan caught just 3 receptions for 29 yards in his week 6 games vs Dallas, but he salvaged his day by scoring 2 TDs. This Sunday, he has a difficult draw on the road against a Jets team who is allowing the 2nd fewest targets per game to opposing team’s #1 WR (5.2). This can be attributed to NY star CB Sauce Gardner, who will be shadowing McMillan throughout this game. Gardner hasn’t allowed a single receiver to catch more than 3 balls against him this season in his primary coverage. You would think a player of McMillan’s talent level would command the ball more, especially playing for Carolina, but as it stands now, the Panthers WR has a target share of just 25.1%. Considering that A) CAR is expected to go with a run-heavy script, B) they have a  severely incapable QB in Bryce Young and C) top it off by putting Sauce Gardner on him, and I’m not biting at the limited total here no matter how tempting it may look. Just remember, the Jets have faced 3 other similar, big-bodied wideouts in Courtland Sutton (1-17-0 on 3 targets), George Pickens (2-57-1 on 1 target) and Mike Evans (4-33-1 on 9 target), and things didn’t exactly end well for them by the conclusion of the game.

Suggested Bet:

Tetairoa McMillan u4.5 Receptions (-136)

 

WR Jalen Coker

We were expecting to see Jalen Coker last week, but he never got on the field, however the Panthers #2 WR practiced in full the last 2 days and is expected to start opposite Tetairoa McMillan this Sunday. There is certainly matchup opporunity in the slot this week for Coker, who played 71.2% of his snaps from this position last year as a rookie. If Coker does line up inside in 11 personnel, the Jets defense has gotten exposed all season in this area. The NYJ allow the most YPT (10.7), 8th most YPRR (1.95) and the 11th (77.2) most receiving YPG to opposing slot receivers. The problem here is we are dealing with a receiver who is stepping on the field for the first time this season, and playing on a team led by Bryce Young is more cause for concern. When you consider Xavier Legette and Hunter Renfroe are also lurking around, you have 3 players who are all likely to share snaps. I simply cannot put any faith in either of these 3 wide receivers this week on the road.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

 

TE Tommy Tremble

Carolina is expecting to see the return of Ja’Tavion Sanders this week, which is bad news for anyone expecting to take advantage of the pass-catching ability of Tommy Tremble. That said, I still think he has solid Anytime TD value. The Jets have stunk all season long when trying to defend pass-catching receivers. They're allowing the most YAC in the entire league, 7th most YPC and 2nd most TDs allowed. Tremble may not see much volume, but I like his chances in if the Panthers find themselves in the red zone against the Jets.

Suggested Bet:

Tommy Tremble Anytime TD +700

 

QB Justin Fields

Fields is averaging 159.8 passing yards per game, 6.5 YPA and a 65% completion rate. He’s averaging 7.6 rush attempts for 46 yards on the ground. He’s averaging 0.8 passing TDs and 0.6 rushing TDs per game. Fields will face a Carolina defense that ranks 7^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed but are 16^th in passing yards allowed per game. Carolina has the lowest pressure rate in all of football (27.1%). This is important because Field’s has been pressured at the highest rate in the league (51.3%). It doesn’t help that Fields average time to throw is 2.84 seconds, 2^nd highest amongst starting QBs right now (behind Caleb Williams). The Jets are dead last in pass rate over expected as they run even in negative game scripts. The Jets are just 1.5-point underdogs and Garrett Wilson is doubtful to play. Don’t expect much passing volume from Fields. The Panthers run Cover 3 at the 4^th highest rate (39.4%). Fields averages 6.86 YPA and a 61.9% completion rate against Cover 3. Turning to the running game, the only 2 QBs the Panthers have faced that has the tendency to run are Kyler Murray and Drake Maye. Kyler rushed 7 times for 32 yards, while Maye rushed just 3 times for 11 yards. I’d expect a lot of scrambles considering the Jets number 1 receiving option is likely to be rookie TE Mason Taylor. I lean over on rushing and under on passing.

Suggested Pick:

Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Under 175.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Anytime Touchdown (+155)

 

RB Breece Hall

Breece is averaging 68.3 rushing yards per game on 4.66 YPC. He’s #1 in amongst RBs with 50+ carries in explosive run rate (12.5%). He’ll face a Panthers defense that is 7^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed but has allowed the 9^th fewest rushing yards per game (94.5). Carolina has been especially tough against the run in the past 3 games. They have been allowing the fewest YPC (2.48) since week 4. They are allowing the lowest success rate in the NFL this season against zone concept runs (33.9%). They have allowed the 4^th lowest success rate to man/gap concept (38.6%). 73.9% of Breece Hall’s attempts have been in zone concept, where he’s averaging 4.89 YPC and a 49.2% success rate. That compares to 4.43 YPC and a 52.4% success rate in man/gap concept. The encouraging sign for Breece is that he has been the bell cow since Braelon Allen got hurt. 36 of 39 RB rush attempts have been Breece. He has split time in the receiving game, running the same amount of routes as Isaiah Davis (31 each). Breece was not even targeted last game, but with Wilson unlikely to play, Breece’s receiving ability needs to be a priority for the Jets. The Panthers have been excellent against backfields in the receiving game, ranking 2^nd best in EPA/pass allowed to the backfield. They are allowing the 4^th fewest receiving YPG to the backfield. It’s tough to expect production with the state of this offense being so one dimensional, but I do have confidence that Breece likely has great usage.

Suggested Pick:

Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

 

WR Josh Reynolds, Tyler Johnson, Arian Smith

With Garrett Wilson set to miss some time, this wide receiver room is a disaster. Reynolds is likely to be the #1 option, as he has an 80.4% route participation rate this season. Arian Smith and Tyler Johnson have 57.5% and 44.6% route participation rates respectively. Reynolds averages 18 receiving yards per game, Johnson averages 12.6 per game and Smith averages 4 per game. They’ll face a Carolina defense that ranks 7^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed but are 16^th in passing yards allowed per game. Carolina has the lowest pressure rate in all of football (27.1%). This is important because Field’s has been pressured at the highest rate in the league (51.3%). It doesn’t help that Fields average time to throw is 2.84 seconds, 2^nd highest amongst starting QBs right now (behind Caleb Williams). The Jets are dead last in pass rate over expected as they run even in negative game scripts. The Jets being just 1.5-point underdogs means they likely just pound the rock. I don’t have confidence in any of these receivers; I’d rather just stay away.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

TE Mason Taylor

Through 3 weeks, the Jets rookie tight end ran a route on 71.8% of dropbacks but averaged just 14.3 receiving yards per game. He was targeted on just 12% of his routes. Week 4 was his breakout week. He caught 5 of 7 targets for 65 receiving yards. He was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate and target share at 33.3% and 25.9% respectively.  Taylor built on that momentum in week 5, catching 9 of 12 targets for 65 yards against the Cowboys. He was targeted on 27% of his routes and was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.8%. Then he had a dud against the Broncos last week. He caught his only target for 2 receiving yards. Justin Fields threw for just 45 passing yards in the entire game. With Garrett Wilson set to miss time, Taylor steps in as #1 option for Justin Fields. Taylor will face a Panthers defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and the 6^th most receiving TDs per game to TE. The Panthers run Cover 3 at the 4^th highest rate (39.4%). Taylor leads the team in receiving against Cover 3, averaging 1.64 YPRR and 19% TPRR. Carolina has the lowest pressure rate in all of football (27.1%). Taylor averages 1.88 YPRR and 26% TPRR when his QB is not pressured. That compares to 0.41 YPRR and 10% TPRR when he is pressured.

Suggested Pick:

Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

50+ Receiving Yards (+140)

Over 4.5 Receptions (+125)

I mean this Jets team is due to win a game right!? They have the pieces; it's just that the coaching staff is BRUTAL. Luckily this week they will be facing Bryce Young and the Panthers who are 1-17 in their L18 road games. In these games they have lost by 26,22,3,7,3,21,18,14,34,6,14,33,26,37,29,5,16. WOW a sprinkle on jets to win by 10+ at +360 might be worth it...

Best Bet Jets ML +110
Lean Under 42.5 -115
Score Prediction Panthers 14 Jets 27

Anytime TD Scorer

Justin Fields (Jets) +160

Garrett Wilson is doubtful to play this week and Fields does not have much chemistry with any other receiver outside of his rookie TE Mason Taylor. The Jets have the highest rush rate over expected and I’d expect them to dial up a ton of designed runs for Fields. The Panthers have been excellent against Breece Hall’s preferred rushing concept (zone), so I think Fields is a better bet here to run one in.

 

Best Play (Panthers):  Tommy Tremble  +650

Tommy Tremble is coming off a game against Dallas where he caught all 4 of his targets for 39 yards. It’s not saying much, but the Panthers TE is second on the team in receiving yards six weeks into the ’25 season. Three weeks ago, Tremble scored the opening TD of the game at New England, and now he faces a shaky New York Jets defense this Sunday. They have been especially poor against pass-catching receivers, which gives Tremble significant value. The Jets are giving up the 7th most YPC, and they rank 1st in the NFL in most YAC allowed. Most significant here, is that New York ranks 2nd in the league in TDs allowed to opposing TEs (6).

 

First TD Scorer

Mason Taylor (Jets) +1200

With Garrett Wilson doubtful to play this week, Taylor steps in as Fields’ #1 option. This is a bullish matchup as the Panthers have allowed the most receiving yards and 6^th most receiving TDs per game to TE. He also has positive splits against the Panthers favorite coverage (Cover 3). Not expecting this offense to look pretty, but these are massive odds for Fields #1 option.

 

Best Play (Panthers):  Rico Dowdle  +650

Dave Canales has referenced the likelihood of Carolina moving towards a 2-back system with Chubba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle on Sunday. Dowdle is coming off back-to-back 200+ yard games. and he has seemingly breathed life into what was an otherwise deceased Panthers offense. They may limit Rico’s touches, but they are simply a better team when he is on the field. When push comes to shove, I think he gets the most important touches early on.

Parlay #1 (+900)

Breece Hall Over 16.5 Rush Attempts

Justin Fields Anytime Touchdown

Mason Taylor Over 4.5 Receptions

 

Parlay #1  (Panthers):  Best Play  +166 (DK)

Bryce Young Under 198.5 Pass Yards

Rico Dowdle 50+ Rush Yards

 

Parlay #2  (Panthers):  Longshot  +2900 (DK)

Bryce Young Under 198.5 Pass Yards

Rico Dowdle 60+ Rush Yards

Tommy Tremble Anytime TD

QB Spencer Rattler

Spencer Rattler is coming off a loss to the New England Patriots where he completed 20 of 26 passes for 227 yards (8.7 YPA). He’s recorded multiple TDs just one time in 6 games to begin the '25 season. While Rattler has only throw one INT, 13.8% of his dropbacks have yielded a loss of -1.0 EPA or worse. or multiple TDs just once in his first six games. From a production standpoint, we simply cannot put any faith in Spencer Rattler's arm this Sunday. However, week 7 is a great spot for him to throw an interception. Chicago gives up the 11th fewest passing YPG (219.5), and they have been a turnover machine on defense. In just 5 games, the Bears have forced opposing QBs to throw 8 INT (2nd most in NFL). With the exception of Jared Goff, every quarterback CHI has faced has thrown at least one pick. Kellen Moore runs an extremely conservative offense, but Rattler will be forced to move the ball downfield at some point in this game and that's when he will eventually make a big mistake.

Suggested Bet:

Spencer Rattler o0.5 Interceptions (-150)

 

RB Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara carried the ball just 10 times for 31 yards in week 6, but he did catch 5 balls for 45 yards. This is due in large part to the role Kendre Miller is playing out of the backfield for New Orleans. Miller has now had a minimum of 9+ touches in four straight games, and this has eaten away at Kamara overall volume, usage and production. There is a silver lining to the veteran RB, and it can be found in Kamara's recent uptick in his passing down usage. The Saints tailback has had at least 5 or more targets as a pass-receiving back in 3 consecutive games. Kamara has a great matchup this Sunday against a very weak Bears front-seven who has been getting beaten into submission by opposing RBs to the tune of 5.3 YPC. NO has been anything but effective this year running the football as evidenced by Kamara's 3.8 YPC, however this is the kind of matchup that could see him excel. The best play for Kamara here is for his total rushing + receiving yards.

Suggested Bet:

Alvin Kamara 70(+) Rush + Rec Yards (-129)

 

WR Chris Olave

Chris Olave posted season-highs in week 6 vs New England, hauling in 6 passes on 10 targets (39%) for 98 yards with an 87% route share. He doesn't have the yardage to support it, but Olave has managed to record 6+ receptions in 5 of his 6 games, despite having Spencer Rattler for a starting QB. If Sunday's game at Solider Field turns into a high scoring affair, it could mean another big day for Olave. Most importantly, the Saints top WR was used downfield for 50% of his targets, and on such throws the Bears allow a league high 63.6% completion rate. Chicago runs the 2nd highest rate of man-coverage in the NFL (41.6%) and against man, Olave has a team-high 37.0% target share. Much like the stark contrast in Olave's reception total and yardage output, the Bears give up the 10th fewest receiving YPG (92.6) and 10th most YPT (9.2) to receivers lined up out wide. Olave's yardage totals is always going to be dependent on Spencer Rattler, but he continues to be consistent in the reception department, and I need to see more games like last week before I'm willing to push the envelope.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Olave o5.5 Receptions (-158)

Chris Olave 7+ ALT Receptions (+113)

Chris Olave 8+ ALT Receptions (+205)

 

WR Rashid Shaheed

Rashid Shaheed caught 4 of 6 targets for 28 yards in last Sunday's against the Patriots. If your were to take Marvin Harrison and Rashid Shaheed and swap them out you would get basically the same results. That being super-talented receivers with big time speed, who are stuck in slow-paced offenses that are led by inept QBs. Shaheed has now logged exactly 4 receptions in each of his L5 games. The New Orleans wide receiver has a 34.8% target share with 2.62 YPRR against man-coverage. Where the discrepancy falls is with Shaheed's zone splits, where his target share drops off dramatically to only 13.6%. Still, Chicago gives up the 2nd highest YPA (19.7) on deep throws down the field, 13th most YPRR (2.11) and 13th most YPR (13.9) to receivers aligned out wide. I have major reservations with Shaheed in this spot, considering how much Olave ate into his target share on throws of 10+ yards. I think is a spot where Shaheed falls short, further diagnosing the issues NO has at the quarterback position.

Suggested Bet:

Rashid Shaheed u41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Juwan Johnson

Trying to figure out Juwan Johnson's sudden drop off in usage is been quite the enigma, but it doesn't change the fact that the Saints TE has lost major steam since the conclusion of week 3. Since beginning the season with games of 8-76-0 (vs ARI), 9-49-1 (vs SF) and 8-51-0 (@ SEA) on 28 total targets, Johnson has caught just 7 balls for 60 yards on 9 total targets in his L3 contests. Any hope for Johnson getting back into the fold of the Saints passing was dissolved last week as the tight end saw just 2 targets against a New England team that entered week 6 allowing the 3rd most receiving yards to opposing TEs. We've seen Juwan Johnson's target share go from slightly decreasing (26.8% > 26.5% > 19.5%) to completely falling off planet earth (12.9% > 12.0% > 7.7%). Regardless, he is a pass if there ever was one.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

QB Caleb Williams

Despite completing the fewest number of passes this season (17), Williams managed to throw for the second-most passing yards this season with 252. This week, he'll face the Saints' defence, who've struggled through the air, allowing the 13th-fewest completions (20.5) and the 9th-fewest pass attempts (29.5) per game — but they’ve also shown some vulnerability in the red zone, giving up the 3rd-most passing touchdowns (2.3) per game. The Saints play zone coverage on 74.3% of snaps, the 14th-highest rate in the NFL, leaning heavily on Cover 3 (39.3%, top five) and Cover 4 (19.9%, top seven). That’s not the most favourable setup for Williams, who has struggled to find rhythm against zone. Among 35 qualified quarterbacks (minimum 50 dropbacks versus zone), he ranks 4th lowest in completion percentage (61.1%), 13th fewest in yards per attempt (6.87), and 13th lowest in QBR (88.2). Against Cover 3 specifically, Williams’ completion rate dips to just 55.2% — the 2nd lowest among qualifiers but averages 7.02 yards per attempt with an improved 91.2 QBR. Cover 4, on the other hand, forces him into quicker throws, resulting in completing 65% of his passes, for only 5.45 yards per attempt, and a 79 QBR. While he hasn't trusted his legs over the last two weeks, this could be the week that returns, as the Saints allow the 4th-most rushing yards (29) per game to opposing QBs.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams 20+ Rushing Yards (-180)

 

RB D'Andre Swift

Swift remains the clear lead back in Chicago, logging a 65% snap share and handling over 75% of the team’s rush attempts. While his production hasn’t been explosive, his steady usage keeps him involved every week.

He faces a tough matchup against the Saints, who, despite allowing the 9th-most rush attempts (22.8), hold teams to just 85.3 rushing yards per game (15th fewest). They’re equally strong against running backs in the passing game, giving up only 4.5 catches and 28.3 receiving yards per game. New Orleans runs an even amount of zone (39.3%) and man/gap (42.7%) run concepts and has limited opponents to 3.44 yards per carry in zone (5th lowest) and 3.84 in man/gap (9th lowest). Swift, however, has been quietly efficient — averaging over 4.0 yards per carry against both looks, besting a 4.3 against zone. It’s unlikely he breaks off a huge game, but with his workload and efficiency, Swift should deliver steady production once again.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift o13.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

 

WR DJ Moore

I don't even know what to do with Moore at this point. His usage and production remain disappointing week over week. But will this matchup be his breakout week? The Saints allow the 8th-fewest receptions (10.7) but the 14th-most receiving yards (143.7), meaning while completions are limited, chunk plays are possible. New Orleans’ heavy zone coverage could work in Moore’s favour — he’s more effective against zone, posting higher marks in target share (13.8%), catch rate (75%), and yards per reception (9.1). However, against the Saints’ main looks (Cover 3 and Cover 4), Moore has been quieter, with just 11 targets for 74 yards — fewer than teammates Olamide Zaccheaus and Luther Burden, who see the field a lot less than Moore. He lines up outside on 62.6% of his routes. The Saints have struggled against outside receivers, allowing the 5th-highest aDoT (13.7), 4th-most yards per reception (15.2), and 2nd-most TDs to outside WRs. So, while the matchup might be there, it just doesn't seem like a breakout game for Moore is coming, despite him playing the highest snap percentage (94.9%) of his season coming off the bye.

Suggested pick:

DJ Moore u36.5 Receiving Yards (-105)

 

WR Rome Odunze

So, it seems clear now that after six weeks of action and having passed their bye, Odunze is the No. 1 receiver in the Bears' offence – despite having his worst week with just two receptions for 32 yards. The Saints’ defence leans heavily on zone coverage, primarily Cover 3 and Cover 4. While his efficiency numbers dip slightly against zone — with a 50% catch rate and a lower PFF grade — the explosive plays increase, as he has a 17.3 yards per reception against the coverage. Against Cover 3 and Cover 4 specifically, Odunze leads the Bears in target share (20.5%) and trails only Luther Burden in yards per reception (17.0), who has just five receptions against those coverages. Odunze’s lines up out wide 60.3% of the time, where the Saints have been most vulnerable, as they allow the 5th-highest aDoT (13.7) and 4th-highest yards per reception (15.2) to outside receivers. With Odunze leading the Bears in both of those categories this season, it should be yet another big Odunze week.

Suggested pick:

Rome Odunze o59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Cole Kmet / Colston Loveland

With Loveland back in the mix for Week 6, he actually out-targeted Kmet 3-to-2, and outproduced him with two receptions for 11 receiving yards to Kmet's one reception and 0 receiving yards. However, Kmet's snap share was significantly cut, seeing just 50.8% to Loveland's 42.4%. Is the passing of the torch coming? We're thinking so. More telling, though, was the usage shift: Kmet’s snap share dipped to 50.8%, while Loveland was close behind at 42.4%. The passing of the torch may already be underway, as Loveland ran routes on 39.4% of snaps compared to Kmet’s 30.3%. His alignment fits well for this matchup, too. Loveland runs inline on 56.2% of his routes, and the Saints have struggled to contain TEs inline, allowing the 10th-highest catch rate (86.4%), 10th-highest yards per route run (2.02), and 12th-highest yards per reception (9.58).

With his usage trending upward and a favourable coverage matchup, Loveland could easily turn a few key targets into his first meaningful yardage output of the season. The Loveland breakout is on its way.

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland o18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Colston Loveland 30+ Receiving Yards (+195)

Saints have allowed 44 & 31 points in their 2 road games while the Bears allowed just 14 points to that Cowboys offense in Week 3 @Home. I think the Bears get the job done here and move to 4-2

Best Bet Bears 'O' 23.5 Pts -135
Lean bears -2.5 -175
Score Prediction Saints 17 Bears 27

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Play (Saints):  Taysom Hill  +245

Taysom Hill may have only played 12 snaps last Sunday and 9 the week before that, but when he's on the field you can guarantee he is going to be involved. If the term utility player were used in football like it is in baseball, then Taysom Hill would fit the billing perfectly. The QB/RB/TE scored on a goal-line carry in week 6, and the Saints could find themselves with multiple scoring opportunities against Chicago on Sunday. This is the same Bears team allowed both Washington and Las Vegas to score 24 points. Hill has scored 7 TDs in his L10 games, and he has the potential to see increased snaps this week.

 

Best Pick: (Bears): Colston Loveland TD (+425)

Taking a bit of a riskier pick to find the end zone this week in Colston Loveland. He has yet to find the end zone in his young career; however, now that he's back healthy, he's seeing his usage increase as he ramps up to a full snap load. And what better matchup to get your first TD in the NFL than against the Saints, who are allowing the third most receiving TDs (0.7) per game to opposing TEs. They have also allowed three receiving TDs in the last three weeks to the TE position.

 

First TD Picks

Best Play (Saints):  Taysom Hill  +1400

I'm sticking with Taysom Hill in this spot. Alvin Kamara continues to struggle closing in on goal-to-go carries. He's missed out on last 4 opportunities, and it was at this point when the Saints turned to Hill and he delivered. Not only would I not be surprised to see him get the ball in short yardage situations early on, I expect New Orleans to do just this. The key here is getting the ball with the opportunity to score first on the road at Soldier Field.

 

Best Pick: (Bears) Rome Odunze First TD (+550)

Well, it finally happened. Odunze went a game without scoring a TD. But that's not scaring us away from taking him again this week. The Saints have allowed the first TD in every week since Week 1, four of which have come on the opposing team's first drive. Odunze has scored the Bears' first TD in three of their five games this season.

Parlay #1 (Saints):  Best Play  +272 (DK)

Spencer Rattler 1+ Interceptions

Alvin Kamara 60+ Rush + Receiving Yards

Chris Olave 6+ Receptions

 

Parlay #2 (Saints):  Longshot  +2300  (DK)

Spencer Rattler 1+ Interceptions

Alvin Kamara 80+ Rush + Receiving Yards

Chris Olave 6+ Receptions

Taysom Hill Anytime TD

 

Parlay 1: (Bears) +350 odds on bet365

Caleb Williams 20+ Rushing Yards

Rome Odunze 50+ Receiving Yards

Colston Loveland 20+ Receiving Yards

QB Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts gets a favourable setup for volume this week against a Minnesota defence that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to move the ball efficiently through the air. The Vikings are giving up the seventh-most completions (24.5) and fifth-most pass attempts (37.3) per game, while also ranking eighth in passing yards allowed (254.8). Minnesota doesn’t lean heavily one way or another between man and zone coverage, but its scheme tendencies lean more to Cover 2 (28.9%) and Cover 6 (16.4%), both of which are at a top-four rate in the NFL. Against Cover 2, Hurts has been efficient but not explosive — completing 77.4% of his passes (11th highest) with a 102.2 QBR (6th highest). However, his yards per attempt (5.97) and low average depth of target (5.7, 12th lowest) suggest that he’s more likely to take what’s underneath rather than test the deep zones. Hurts hasn’t seen much Cover 6 this year — only eight dropbacks — but he’s been sharp in limited reps, completing 75% of his passes (3/4) for an impressive 14.0 yards per attempt and a 116.7 QBR – I get it, small sample size. Looking into last year’s larger sample tells a different story, as Hurts finished with the eighth-lowest completion percentage (67.7%) and yards per attempt (6.81) against Cover 6 among 33 qualified QBs. It hasn’t been an explosive passing year for Hurts and the Eagles’ offence, but this matchup sets up well for efficiency. The Vikings’ defensive tendencies should funnel targets to the short area of the field where Hurts has had success this season. He’s topped 20 completions in three of his last four games, and that trend should continue here, especially if Minnesota’s coverage forces him to take the underneath throws.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts 20+ Completions (+105)

 

RB Saquon Barkley

After yet another frustrating performance last week in which Saquon Barkley started hot but faded quickly, this matchup against Minnesota could be his bounce-back opportunity. The Vikings have struggled to contain opposing RBs all season, allowing the most rush attempts per game (25.6) and the 11th most rushing yards (111.6). Their defensive front has given up 4.77 yards per carry — the fifth-highest mark in the league — and that’s especially relevant given their heavy use of zone run defence concepts (55.8%, third most in the NFL). Barkley's been much more effective against zone looks this season, averaging 3.64 yards per carry — a full yard more than he’s managed against man or gap schemes (2.62). Barkley’s recent lack of touches has been a major talking point for the Eagles, and with Philadelphia’s passing game still finding its rhythm, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a more run-heavy approach to get Barkley going early. He showed flashes of his last season burst on his first two rush attempts last week, going for 18 and 13 yards. However, he would finish with just 27 rushing yards on the rest of his 10 rushing attempts. This matchup against Minnesota’s soft zone looks and leaky front seven could be the perfect setup for a “squeaky wheel” game — one where we could see Barkley hit the century mark for the first time this season.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley o74.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Saquon Barkley 100+ Rushing Yards (+240)

 

WR AJ Brown

This is shaping up to be another difficult matchup for A.J. Brown, who’s been struggling all season long. He did have his second-best week last week, catching six of his nine targets for 80 receiving yards. However, the Vikings have been elite against WRs, allowing the fewest receptions (7.4) and the fewest receiving yards (96.6) per game to the position. This is even more exemplified against outside receivers, allowing the fewest targets (36), fewest receptions (14), and fewest receiving yards per game (68) to that alignment, which Brown runs 90.8% of his routes from. Brown’s numbers against Cover 2 won't help him this week either. He’s earned just a 9.7% target share against the coverage, catching one of three passes for seven yards this year. Against Cover 6 this year, he doesn't have a massive sample size (one reception for three yards, but only on seven routes). However, when expanding to last season, his numbers against Cover 6 were equally discouraging — only three receptions on four targets for 33 yards. Even if this was a good matchup for Brown, the way he's playing right now, you just can't trust the guy.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown u59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Devonta Smith

Smith has been the Eagles' most consistent WR this season, but that's not saying much. Smith has actually been efficient against the coverages Minnesota runs most — Cover 2 and Cover 6 — despite the limited volume. He has caught all six of his targets for 53 yards against Cover 2 this season, and his lone target for 52 yards against Cover 6. His success in these schemes isn’t new either; last year, he totalled 106 receiving yards on five receptions against Cover 6. Smith lines up in the slot on 64.2% of his routes. This gives him a slight edge as the Vikings are a tad less dominant against slot receivers than outside receivers. They allow the 10th fewest catch rate (68.2%) and 57.6 yards per game to the slot — not great, but still far more forgiving than their coverage on the perimeter. While it may not turn into an explosive play, Smith should handle more volume of the Eagles WRs because of his alignment in the slot.

Suggested pick:

DeVonta Smith 4+ Receptions (-200)

 

TE Dallas Goedert

Okay, now this guy should have the best week of the trio. Looking into the two coverages this Vikings defence likes to run, we can pretty much chalk him up as a non-factor against Cover 6. This year, Goedert has one target, which is one more target than he had in all of 2024. However, his dominance against Cover 2 can’t be ignored — he leads all Eagles pass catchers this season in targets (8), receptions (6), and receiving yards (82) versus that coverage, while commanding a massive 60.8% air yard share. Even stretching back to last year, his success holds up, catching eight of nine targets for 59 yards against Cover 2. When Jalen Hurts faces those two-high shells, Goedert has consistently been the primary read, having the highest first-read percentage (28.6%) on the team. Minnesota’s defence does give up volume to tight ends, allowing the eighth-most receptions (6.2) per game, but limits yardage, allowing the 14th fewest receiving yards (48.8) per game. Goedert’s split between slot (50%) and inline (36.7%) routes gives him multiple ways to attack the Vikings, who are targeted heavily by inline receivers but give up short completions. Coming off an 11-target, nine-catch and 110 receiving yard game against the Giants last week, Goedert has proven to be Hurts' favourite target lately, and that shouldn't change this week.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert o4.5 Receptions (+115)

QB Carson Wentz

Wentz has just been named the starting QB for this week. Philadelphia’s defence has been stingy against opposing quarterbacks, allowing the 10th-fewest completions (19.8) and 10th-fewest passing yards (216.2) per game, while also giving up the fifth-fewest passing touchdowns (1.2). Still, they do face plenty of volume — the 12th-most pass attempts (33.5) — and their weakness lies in their vulnerability to mobile quarterbacks, allowing the seventh-most rushing yards (27) per game to the position. The Eagles rely heavily on man coverage, running it at the 10th-highest rate (30.7%) in the league, with Cover 1 (26.3%) and Cover 6 (13.6%) being their most used coverages. On the season, McCarthy has been the better QB against man coverage, completing 72.2% of his passes with 10.0 yards per attempt and a 101.4 QBR. Wentz is completing just 52.9% of his passes with a 4.09 yards per attempt and a 63.2 QBR. Even when isolating their performance against the Eagles’ preferred coverages, McCarthy still has the edge. Against Cover 1 and Cover 6, he’s completing 66.7% of his throws for 8.44 yards per attempt, compared to Wentz’s 61.1% and 6.72 yards per attempt. But now that we know it's Wentz who's starting, we're still going to pass on him this week in what projects to be a difficult revenge game for the former Eagles QB.

Suggested pick:

Pass

 

RB Jordan Mason

Mason retains the backfield coming out of the bye with Aaron Jones still on IR. This week, he gets the Eagles, who allow the 8th most rush attempts (23) and 9th most rushing yards (100.3) per game, suggesting that running backs have been able to find steady volume on the ground. Philadelphia lean heavily toward man/gap schemes (46.2%) rather than zone (33.5%), and have held opponents to a respectable 4.26 yards per carry in those looks. That said, Mason’s running style actually matches up well with this kind of defence. He’s been at his best against man/gap concepts this season, averaging 5.03 yards per carry — the 10th-highest mark among all running backs with at least 20 attempts against the coverage. Against zone concept, his efficiency drops slightly to 4.29 yards per carry, so this defensive look works in his favour. However, the bigger concern with Mason is volume and game flow. He’s gone under his projected rushing total in four of his last five games, and if the Vikings fall behind early, they may be forced to pivot toward the passing game, limiting Mason’s carries.

Suggested Pick:

Jordan Mason u15.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

 

WR Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson is coming off his second-best week of the season, catching seven of 11 targets for 123 receiving yards against a tough, man-heavy Browns defence. And he faces another man-heavy defence this week in the Eagles, who allow the 10th most receptions (12.5) and 9th most receiving yards (152) per game to opposing WRs. He’s earned a commanding 30.4% target share against man coverage, catching nine of 17 targets for 117 yards and a touchdown. Simply put, Jefferson’s usage and talent make him matchup-proof. Against Cover 1 specifically, Jefferson dominates Minnesota’s passing game as the only receiver with double-digit targets (14), producing seven receptions for 90 yards. And while he hasn’t been featured as much versus Cover 6 this year, history suggests he can thrive there too — he posted 13 receptions for 190 yards against the coverage last season. Lining up out wide on 76.8% of routes, Jefferson is well-positioned to exploit an Eagles secondary that allows the third-most targets and eighth-most receiving yards per game to outside receivers. Even with Philadelphia’s low catch rate allowed (56.7%), he's just simply inevitable — especially with Addison back, who demands attention as well. Against man coverage, Jefferson has the highest aDoT (15.3) on the Vikings, and has caught a 29+ yard pass in four straight weeks.

Suggested pick:

Justin Jefferson o27.5 Longest Reception (-115)

 

WR Jordan Addison

Addison has been a solid complement to Jefferson in his two games this season, catching nine of his 14 targets for 155 receiving yards and a TD. This week, he faces the man-heavy Eagles, who run a majority of Cover 1 and Cover 6. Against man coverage, Addison’s production has been modest so far in 2025, catching both of his targets for 26 receiving yards — which both came against Cover 1. While the numbers seem low, they're actually better against man than zone, as he has a higher catch rate, yards per reception, yards per route run, and aDoT. Where Addison’s recent film really stands out is against Cover 6. In just six routes against that coverage this year, he’s turned two targets into two receptions for 86 yards, and last year he added another 111 yards on eight receptions. With us already knowing the Eagles struggle against outside WRs — and Addison runs 75.6% of his routes from this position — Addison should pop again. Either receiver could go for a deep ball, but Addison's reception line remains low, so we will target him as a shorter area of the field option this week. He has registered 4+ receptions in both games this season, and in six of his last seven regular season games last season.

Suggested pick:

Jordan Addison o3.5 Longest Reception (-125)

 

TE TJ Hockenson

Hockenson is coming off the highest volume week of the season, catching all six of his targets, turning that into just 38 receiving yards. On the season, he hasn't been great, and that shouldn't change this week, against one of the best defences at covering the TE position. The Eagles’ defence has smothered TEs, allowing the third-fewest receptions (3.5) and third-fewest receiving yards (28) per game. Hockenson has typically been more reliable than explosive against man coverage, catching six of seven targets for 35 yards on 53 routes this season. And that was the same last season, where he caught 12 balls for 160 yards on 52 routes. Against Cover 1, his efficiency is even better, going a perfect 5-for-5 this year for 31 yards, and 8-for-11 for 103 yards last year. This has resulted in Hockenson having a higher catch rate in man but lower yards per reception, yards per route run, and average depth of target than when facing zone. Against Cover 6, he’s also been quiet, with just one catch for six yards this year. Even dating back to 2024, he totalled only 25 yards on three receptions on 33 routes against the coverage. Hockenson lines up inline on 44.8% of his routes, and in the slot on 40.1%. Philadelphia allows the fourth-lowest catch rate (65.3%), the second-fewest receiving yards per game (62.7), and the second-fewest yards per reception (7.67) to those alignments. It hasn't been pretty for Hockenson this year, and that shouldn't change in what projects to be his toughest matchup of the season this week.

Suggested pick:

TJ Hockenson u31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

If you couldn't tell by some of the write-ups, we're liking the Eagles this week. The matchup doesn't line up particularly well for the Vikings, as they're starting Wentz against a man-heavy team. And that's coming from a guy who loves a revenge game narrative. The Eagles are coming off a disappointing divisional loss to a much lesser opponent. Most of the talk has been about getting Saquon the ball more. And in this matchup, against a team that struggles to defend the rush but is stellar against the pass, it just sets up perfectly for the Eagles to stick to their roots with what worked in their Super Bowl-winning season last year and let Barkley carry them to victory.

Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles ML -130
Lean: Under 44.5 -115
Score Prediction: 24-14

Anytime TD Scorer

 

Best Pick: (Eagles): Dallas Goedert TD (+250)

Goedert has a knack for the end zone recently, scoring in five TDs over the last four weeks. The Vikings are allowing the 8th most receiving TDs (0.6) per game to opposing TEs. Goedert is the only Eagle pass catcher with more than one receiving TD this season. He also ties Smith for the most red zone targets (5) on the season.

 

Best Pick: (Vikings): Justin Jefferson TD (+115)

It's been a long drought for Jefferson, finding the end zone, not scoring since Week 1. This is a decent "he's due" spot, although we typically don't like using that narrative. The Eagles are only allowing 0.7 receiving TDs (9th fewest), but the way we see this game going, the Vikings are going to need to throw on this Eagles defence to keep themselves in this game. Looking into just Weeks 3-5 – in which Wentz has started – Jefferson leads the Vikings in first-read targets (33%) from Wentz, and is tied with Hockenson for the most red zone targets (4) on the season.

 

First TD Scorer

 

Best Pick: (Eagles) Jalen Hurts First TD (+500)

I feel this is just a good bet every week. Hurts has scored in four of six weeks this year, totalling five rushing TDs. Hurts has scored the first TD in just one game this season, but has scored the Eagles' first TD in two games this year. The Vikings have allowed just one rushing TD to a QB this season, but if you incorporate their rushing TDs allowed to RBs, as Hurts is treated as an RB on the goal line, then those numbers jump up to 0.8 per game, which I'll take my chances that it would be early in the game.

 

Best Pick: (Vikings) Jordan Mason First TD (+450)

If our narrative is to play out, the Vikings will have to run early because they might not have the opportunity to rush the ball later in the game in their attempt to come back. Mason has scored three touchdowns in the three games since Aaron Jones went down, but none of them have been the first for the Vikings. The Eagles are allowing 1.0 TD per game to opposing RBs. Why can't it be the first one in this matchup?

Parlay 1: (Eagles) +275 odds on bet365

Philadelphia Eagles ML

Saquon Barkley 70+ Rushing Yards

Dallas Goedert 4+ Receptions

 

Parlay 2: (Vikings) +275 odds on bet365

Carson Wentz 1+ Interception

Jordan Addison 3+ Receptions

Justin Jefferson 70+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 3: (Vikings/Eagles Lotto) +1150 odds on bet365

Philadelphia Eagles ML

Saquon Barkley 100+ Rushing Yards

Justin Jefferson 100+ Receiving Yards

QB Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones presents a fascinating betting case this week, showcasing both elite efficiency and a tendency for turnover-worthy throws. On the season, Jones has been accurate, completing 129 of 180 passes (71.3% - 3rd best in the league) for 1,502 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He's also a rushing threat, with 24 carries for 76 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. Last week was a strong showing: 22 completions for 212 yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, and a rushing touchdown. His advanced metrics are impressive, including an 8.34 YPA, a 104.4 passer rating, and a remarkably low 2.6% sack rate. Among quarterbacks, he leads the league with a 78.3% 1st Read% and ranks high in adjusted completion percentage (10th). The matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers offers several advantages. The Colts' offensive line ranks 8th in pass blocking, and the Chargers' pass rush is rated just 30th, suggesting Jones should have plenty of time in the pocket. When not under pressure, Jones holds an excellent 101.2 passer rating and 8.18 YPA. Furthermore, the Chargers blitz at the 5th lowest rate (18.2%), and Jones maintains a 100.7 passer rating when not blitzed. The Chargers primarily run zone coverage (7th highest rate, mostly Cover 3 and 4), against which Jones has performed consistently this season. However, while the Chargers aim to limit downfield production (allowing only a 36.4% completion rate beyond 10 yards) and haven't allowed multiple passing touchdowns in any game this season, Jones's 3.9% turnover-worthy throw rate (5th highest) is a concern. It’s hard to fade Jones in any matchup, but this might be a solid regression spot for him.

 Suggested Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (+135)

 

RB Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor is poised for another dominant performance this week, making him a strong candidate across the board. He's been exceptional this season, leading the league with 115 carries for 603 yards (an outstanding 5.2 YPC) and 7 rushing touchdowns. He also adds value in the passing game with 20 catches on 22 targets for 147 yards and a touchdown. Last week, he showcased his capabilities with 21 carries for 123 yards and a rushing touchdown, plus 4 catches for 14 yards. His advanced metrics are equally impressive, ranking 5th in YPC (5.24) and 4th in yards after contact per attempt (3.24) among qualified running backs. The matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers is highly favorable for Taylor. The Chargers' run defense has struggled significantly in recent weeks, allowing primary backs De'Von Achane and Jacory Croskey-Merritt to each gain at least 150 rushing yards and score 2 touchdowns in their last two outings. Overall, LAC is allowing the 12th most rushing yards per game (124.2) and the 3rd highest explosive run rate (8.1%) this season. Taylor ranks 9th among running backs in yards after contact per carry, and the Chargers have allowed the 6th highest yards after contact per rush, indicating a perfect storm for Taylor's running style. Given his league-leading usage, elite production, and a highly exploitable matchup against a struggling run defense, Jonathan Taylor is in line for another massive game. Overs are the only option here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’0.5 Touchdowns (-155)
2+ Touchdowns (+250)

 

WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Michael Pittman Jr’s season has been productive, with 28 catches on 38 targets (73.6%) for 293 yards and 4 touchdowns. Last week, however, was a down performance with just 2 catches for 20 yards on 3 targets, possibly impacted by game flow or defensive attention to him. Pittman primarily lines up out wide (70.2%) but also sees significant snaps in the slot (27.7%). His advanced metrics are solid: a 20.2% target share, 19.4% of team receiving yards, and an impressive 122.9 passer rating when targeted. The matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers is solid given what they have allowed to opposing top wide receivers. The Chargers defense has struggled against opposing WR1s recently, allowing big games to Jalen Waddle (6 catches, 95 yards), Deebo Samuel (8 catches, 96 yards, TD), and Courtland Sutton (6 catches, 118 yards, TD). If Josh Downs misses the game due to concussion protocol, Pittman's target share could see an uptick. While his lower average depth of target (aDOT) might limit explosive play potential against a potentially tough matchup, his red-zone prowess (4 touchdowns) and the Chargers' struggles against top receivers make him a strong candidate to get back into the end zone.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown +180

 

WR Josh Downs
Josh Downs is currently in concussion protocol and listed as questionable this week. If he plays, his season has shown good efficiency from the slot: 26 catches on 34 targets (76.4%) for 217 yards and 1 touchdown. Last week, he secured 6 catches for 42 yards and a touchdown on 7 targets. Downs primarily operates from the slot (80.5% of snaps). His advanced metrics include an 18.0% target share and a great 104.2 passer rating when targeted. The matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers for slot receivers is somewhat neutral. The Chargers allow the 16th most receiving yards to the slot (63.0 per game), a 27th highest catch rate (66.0%), and an 18th highest 1st read rate (77.4%). While these numbers aren't overtly bad, they don't scream exploit either. The primary concern, however, is his health. If Downs is unable to clear concussion protocol, Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell would see increased roles, effectively nullifying any betting value for Downs. Given the uncertainty, I’d advise avoiding betting on Josh Downs until his status is definitively confirmed. Typically with concussions, if he’s good to go there should not be any restrictions, but I’m assuming he’s missing this one.

Suggested Picks
PASS

 

TE Tyler Warren
On the season, Warren has been highly efficient, catching 29 of 40 targets (72.5%) for 370 yards and 2 touchdowns. Last week was particularly productive, as he led the team with 6 catches for 63 yards on 9 targets, including a touchdown. He demonstrates versatility in his alignment, with snaps inline (43.5%), in the slot (38.2%), and out wide (15.1%). His advanced metrics are excellent, highlighted by 12.8 yards per reception, 7.0 yards after the catch per reception, and an impressive 120.7 passer rating when targeted. He also ranks 2nd among tight ends with 2.81 yards per route run against zone coverage. However, the matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers is highly unfavorable for tight ends. The Chargers' defense has been exceptionally stingy against the position, allowing the 4th fewest targets (5.33), 5th fewest receptions (3.67), and 4th fewest receiving yards (32.7) per game to tight ends. While Warren's talent and recent usage are undeniable, the strength of the Chargers' defense against tight ends makes it difficult to project a high-volume or high-yardage performance. Despite his success against zone coverage, the Chargers' overall effectiveness against tight ends could cap his upside.  This is the rare spot I’ll fade Warren.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert rebounded in a big way last week, completing 29 of 38 passes for 264 yards and two touchdowns, ending a three-game interception streak and displaying the poise that defines his best performances. His ability to reset under pressure was critical — delivering a 73% completion rate despite Miami sending extra rushers on nearly a quarter of his dropbacks. Herbert continues to provide value as a secondary runner, logging 24+ rushing yards in four of his six games, which adds a dimension to an otherwise timing-based offense. The Colts’ defense presents an interesting test. They rank middle-of-the-pack in most coverage metrics, allowing 249 passing yards per game and 1.7 passing touchdowns, but have struggled against high-volume precision passers like Matthew Stafford and Jacoby Brissett, who both topped 320 yards and multiple scores in recent weeks. Indianapolis plays a blend of Cover 3 and quarters, often inviting throws underneath — something Herbert has thrived at, leading all quarterbacks in completion percentage on short and intermediate routes (79.2%). Expect Kellen Moore to lean heavily on play-action and bunch formations to manipulate Indy’s safeties, setting up Herbert for efficient, sustained drives.

Suggested Play:

'O' 23.5 Completions (-125)

 

RB Kimani Vidal

Kimani Vidal’s breakout performance against Miami showcased exactly why the Chargers were high on him coming into the season. With Omarion Hampton sidelined, Vidal seized control of the backfield — handling 67% of snaps and turning 21 total touches into 138 yards and a score. His acceleration through the second level and contact balance were evident, averaging nearly 7.0 yards per carry with over half his yardage coming after first contact. The Colts’ front has been inconsistent, allowing 4.3 yards per carry and ranking near the bottom third of the league in adjusted yards before contact (2.21). Opposing backs have found success when running behind zone-blocking concepts, where Vidal excels at pressing the line and cutting decisively. Expect the Chargers to lean on inside zone and split-flow runs early to test Indy’s linebackers, who’ve struggled to maintain gap integrity. If Los Angeles can sustain long drives and build early momentum, Vidal is well-positioned to find the end zone again — particularly as their primary goal-line option.

Suggested Play:

 Anytime Touchdown (+100)

 

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey’s chemistry with Herbert is beginning to surface at just the right time. With Quentin Johnston sidelined, McConkey played 80% of offensive snaps and led the team in targets (9), receptions (7), and yards (100), adding a touchdown in the process. His spatial awareness against zone coverage — consistently settling between defenders — allows Herbert to maintain rhythm on quick reads. Against Miami, McConkey averaged 2.83 yards per route run, his highest mark of the season, with 68% of his production coming from the slot.

That profile sets up favorably against a Colts secondary that has allowed 82.3 yards per game and the seventh-most completions to slot receivers. Expect Moore to deploy McConkey on pivot routes and option seams that challenge Indy’s linebackers and safeties, forcing them to declare coverage early. Even when Johnston returns, McConkey’s versatility and route precision should keep him heavily involved.

Suggested Play:

'O' 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen is coming off a quiet outing, posting season lows across the board — just four receptions for 27 yards on seven targets. While defenses have keyed in on him, Allen remains an essential part of the Chargers’ offensive timing. Against zone coverage this season, he maintains a 25.6% target share and averages 2.4 yards per route run, ranking top 10 among wideouts in that metric. The Colts’ defense presents a bounce-back opportunity. Their corners play with heavy off-coverage tendencies, conceding easy completions underneath, which aligns perfectly with Allen’s short-area dominance. Expect Herbert to look his way early on option routes and hitches to re-establish rhythm, particularly on third downs where Allen remains one of the league’s most efficient chain-movers.

Suggested Play:

'O' 5.5 Receptions (-120)

 

TE Oronde Gadsden

Oronde Gadsden’s Week 6 breakout might mark a turning point in Los Angeles’ offensive balance. The rookie tight end ran a route on 82% of Herbert’s dropbacks — his highest mark yet — while commanding a 21.6% target share and converting 8 looks into 7 receptions for 68 yards. His frame and soft hands make him a perfect fit for Herbert’s quick-strike tendencies over the middle, especially on crossers and stick routes. The Colts have struggled against tight ends all year, surrendering the seventh-most receptions (6.2) and 56.5 yards per game to the position. Opponents like Trey McBride and Elijah Higgins have each topped 70 yards and found success exploiting linebacker mismatches in this very matchup. Expect the Chargers to keep Gadsden involved on play-action seams and underneath curls — particularly near the red zone where his size advantage could shine.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+250)

I think the Colts can hang around and make this look good but I think the Chargers @Home get the job done and control this game from start to finish. The Colts are good. I'm not taking that away from them, it's just hard to win on the road, especially against Herbert. This Colts offense runs through Rookie Tyler Warren which is concerning as the Chargers have locked down TE's all year. 

Best Bet Chargers ML -130
Lean Over 48.5 -125
Score Prediction Colts 23 Chargers 30

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Chargers): Orande Gadsden +250

Oronde Gadsden’s Week 6 breakout might mark a turning point in Los Angeles’ offensive balance. The rookie tight end ran a route on 82% of Herbert’s dropbacks — his highest mark yet — while commanding a 21.6% target share and converting 8 looks into 7 receptions for 68 yards. His frame and soft hands make him a perfect fit for Herbert’s quick-strike tendencies over the middle, especially on crossers and stick routes. The Colts have struggled against tight ends all year, surrendering the seventh-most receptions (6.2) and 56.5 yards per game to the position. Opponents like Trey McBride and Elijah Higgins have each topped 70 yards and found success exploiting linebacker mismatches in this very matchup. Expect the Chargers to keep Gadsden involved on play-action seams and underneath curls — particularly near the red zone where his size advantage could shine.

Best Bet (Colts): Michael Pittman +180

Pittman didn't find the Endzone last week but still has 4 TD's on the season. WR1's have done well against this LAC offense and Pittman's profile should be a good matchup near the endzone. I think we see him get back on track this week, especially if Downs misses time.

 

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Chargers): Kimani Vidal +575

Expect offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to lean on inside zone and duo concepts on the first possession, setting up Vidal to punch in a red-zone carry if the Chargers drive the field. The Chargers’ scripted plays typically favor balance on their first two series, and Vidal’s recent emergence as the preferred short-yardage option makes him a prime candidate to capitalize. With his combination of patience, burst, and tackle-breaking power, he’s in a perfect spot to open the scoring.

Best Bet (Colts): Jonathan Taylor +450

Feels easy right? Let's bet on the potential offensive player of the season in a solid matchup. I could easily see JT score a couple in this game and he leads the league in redzone usage for an RB.

 Parlay #1 (Chargers) +425

Kimani Vidal ATD
Justin Herbert 'O' 24.5 Pass Completions

Ladd McConkey 'O' 62.5 Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Colts): +631 on FanDuel

Jonathan Taylor 2+ Touchdowns

Michael Pittman 4+ Receptions

IND Colts ML

QB Jaxson Dart 

Jaxson Dart’s mobility has completely redefined what this Giants offense can do, and it’s not an exaggeration to say his legs are their most consistent offensive weapon. Few rookies are as composed under pressure — and that will be tested here, as the Broncos bring heat on over 44% of dropbacks, one of the highest rates in football. The difference with Dart is that pressure doesn’t collapse his game; it fuels it. His YPA and CPOE both increase when blitzed, and that speaks to his ability to extend plays, manipulate defenders, and improvise beyond structure. Denver plays a high dose of man coverage, which naturally opens lanes for quarterbacks who can move. With linebackers often turning their backs in coverage, Dart should have plenty of space to scramble for chunk gains. Expect the Giants to use designed rollouts and RPOs early, forcing Denver’s edge rushers to hesitate. If New York’s offensive line can hold its own for even two seconds, Dart should clear this number comfortably through a mix of scrambles and read-options.

Suggested Play:

'O' 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

RB Cam Skattebo

Cam Skattebo has become the heartbeat of this Giants offense — and their most trusted weapon inside the 10-yard line. The former Sun Devil’s low center of gravity and violent running style allow him to consistently create yards after contact, and he’s handled 71% of New York’s red-zone carries over the last four games. Even when the Giants face negative game scripts, Skattebo’s usage rarely dips; he’s involved in checkdowns, swing passes, and screens, making him a true three-down option. Against Denver, the ground game will face resistance — the Broncos are holding opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry — but their aggression at the line often leaves them vulnerable to misdirection and delayed draws, both staples of New York’s run scheme. Expect the Giants to manufacture scoring opportunities through tempo and motion, getting Skattebo touches in space before hammering him between the tackles when they get close. If New York finds the red zone, there’s little doubt who finishes the drive.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+120)

'O' 12.5 Yard Longest Rush (-120)

 

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

The connection between Jaxson Dart and Wan’Dale Robinson has grown stronger each week, and the slot receiver has quietly become the offense’s rhythm engine. Robinson has averaged 7.8 targets per game since Dart took over, thriving as his safety valve on timing routes and short-zone crossers. Denver’s defense, while disciplined, ranks bottom-five in catch rate allowed to slot receivers, mainly due to the depth of their linebackers and reliance on man-match principles. Robinson’s suddenness and ability to settle between leverage points make him a nightmare for those coverages. Expect the Giants to move him pre-snap to force switches, isolating him on safeties in space. When the Broncos rotate late, Dart will take those quick reads and move the sticks — it’s what this offense does best. Given Robinson’s reliability and the likely negative game script, his volume should once again clear six catches comfortably.

Suggested Play:

'O' 5.5 Receptions (+120)

 

WR Darius Slayton

If there’s one area where the Giants can challenge Denver, it’s vertically — and that’s where Darius Slayton’s return becomes critical. Slayton’s raw speed has always been his calling card, and Dart’s willingness to attack deep makes this an intriguing matchup. Denver’s defense ranks 22nd in explosive pass rate allowed and has given up completions of 25+ yards in four straight games. Expect New York to test that secondary early, using play-action to draw the safeties down before isolating Slayton on the boundary. Even one or two shots could cash this number; Slayton averages 15.9 air yards per target, and Dart’s deep-ball accuracy has quietly been one of the best in the NFC through three starts. With Denver likely stacking the box to contain Skattebo, Slayton should get the single coverage he needs. All it takes is one clean release and one well-timed throw to flip the field

Suggested Play:

'O' Longest Reception

 

TE Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson may not draw headlines, but his role inside the red zone is impossible to ignore. Despite modest target totals, he’s been heavily featured on play-action leak routes near the goal line, a staple in Brian Daboll’s red-zone playbook. Denver’s linebackers tend to overcommit when facing heavy personnel, and that’s where Johnson becomes dangerous — sneaking behind the second level for wide-open looks. With Skattebo commanding defensive attention and Dart’s legs forcing containment, the tight end often slips unnoticed into the back corner of the end zone. At long odds, Johnson represents tremendous value as a “first score” dart throw. He’s on the field for more than 85% of red-zone snaps, and with defenses keying on the run, this could be the perfect week for the Giants to pull the trigger on that tight end delay route they’ve been setting up for weeks.

Suggested Play:

First TD (+1750)

QB Bo Nix

Well, I'm sorry to anybody who had to wake up early and watch Nix and the Broncos last week. Let's just put that in the rearview. This week, Nix gets a strong matchup against a Giants defence that allows the 7th-most completions (24.5) and 8th-most passing yards (254.8) per game, while facing the 5th-most pass attempts (37.3). What’s interesting, though, with this volume, the Giants have managed to limit touchdowns, giving up the 5th-fewest passing TDs (1.2) per game. The Giants run the 2nd-most man coverage (41.8%) in the league – 2nd to only the Broncos – and rely heavily on Cover 1 (35.7%). Luckily for Nix, that’s a coverage he’s handled well. Against Cover 1 this season, he’s completed 65.5% of his passes with 7.52 yards per attempt and a 96.6 QBR — nearly identical to his efficiency against zone coverage. Against zone, Nix ranks among the top 10 in both completion percentage (65.8%) and yards per attempt (7.47). Nix also likes to use his legs, quietly averaging over 20 rushing yards per game this season. New York’s aggressive coverage can generate pressure, which opens up opportunities for mobile quarterbacks to extend plays. This week presents Nix with an opportunity to bounce back after a lacklustre Week 6 performance in London. Nix has cleared his passing & rushing yards line in two of the last three weeks, averaging 265 pass & rush yards per game over that span.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix o239.5 Pass & Rush Yards (-120)

 

RB JK Dobbins

Dobbins is coming off his worst game as a Bronco, taking his 14 rush attempts for just 40 rushing yards. This week, he gets the Giants defence, who allow just the fourth-fewest rush attempts (18) per game, but rank 10th in rushing yards allowed (98.8). They also limit receptions and receiving yards for opposing RBs, ranking 13th fewest (4.5) and 15th fewest (30.2). The Giants run more man/gap (47%) than zone concept (31.8%), but that works against them. They allow 6.1 yards per carry in man/gap situations — the highest in the league — and 3.9 per carry in zone. Dobbins has been effective against both, averaging 3.94 yards per carry versus man/gap, but truly excelling against zone concept, averaging a 5.84 yards per carry. So, it should be a nice setup for Dobbins. However, if the Broncos build a lead or the game gets lopsided, rookie RJ Harvey could see more touches. The Broncos spoke about mixing their backs more at the start of the game, but using Dobbins in a more finishing role late in the game. But if the Broncos run away with this game, then they could give the rookie more touches, which would limit the production from Dobbins.

Suggested Pick:

JK Dobbins u14.5 Rush Attempts (+100)

 

WR Courtland Sutton

This week presents a fantastic bounce-back spot following a one catch, 17 receiving yard game against the Jets. This week, he gets the other New York team, who allow the second-most receptions (14.2) and the second-most receiving yards (178.3) per game, and with their heavy reliance on man coverage, Sutton should once again be heavily featured in Denver’s passing attack. Against man coverage, Sutton has been the clear go-to option for the Broncos — leading the team in targets (12), receiving yards (87), and PFF grade (79.6). Remarkably, 11 of those 12 targets and all 87 yards have come against Cover 1. Lining up out wide on 79.6% of his routes, Sutton also faces a Giants defence that struggles against opposing outside receivers, allowing the fifth-highest target rate, seventh-highest catch rate (69%), and 11th-most yards per game (116.5). Sutton has one game this season in which he had one reception. The following game saw him bounce back with a six-catch, 118-yard, and one TD performance. That came against a much better LA Chargers defence. He should have no problem bouncing back this week against the Giants.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton o57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Courtland Sutton 80+ Receiving Yards (+230)

 

WR Troy Franklin

Franklin is coming off the second-worst week of the season, turning his three receptions into just 19 receiving yards. This week, he gets the man-heavy Giants defence. He’s one of only two Broncos receivers with double-digit targets against man this season, catching eight of 10 for 84 yards. However, Franklin’s yards per route run and per reception dip compared to zone coverage. Franklin lines up in the slot on 57.9% of his routes, where the Giants have struggled nearly as much as they have against outside receivers. They’re targeted at the third-highest rate by slot receivers, and while their catch rate allowed is low (65.5%), they still give up 96.8 receiving yards per game to that alignment. However, the main concern is his snap share. Rookie Pat Bryant has now played over 50% of snaps for two straight weeks and even outsnapped Franklin in Week 6, running the second-most routes behind only Courtland Sutton. If this continues, we could see Franklin's usage dip even further. And if that's the case, that should affect his receptions, in which he's already struggling to consistently surpass four receptions per game, only hitting that feat in half of his games, and hasn't since Bryant started getting more snaps.

Suggested pick:

Troy Franklin u3.5 Receptions (-135)

 

TE Evan Engram

Bringing in Engram this offseason, you would have figured he'd be the second receiving option in this offence. However, that hasn't come to fruition. He's playing just 41.4% of the snaps, compared to Adam Trautman's 48.3%. That being said, Engram is coming off his best week as a Bronco, bringing in all five of his targets for 42 receiving yards. The Giants have allowed the 13th most receptions (5.7) per game to TEs, though they’ve kept the yardage modest, allowing the 15th fewest receiving yards (49.3) per game. Engram's been splitting his snaps almost evenly between the slot (48.7%) and inline (41.6%). While New York has been stingy against inline TEs — targeted at the 10th lowest rate and allowing the 14th lowest catch rate (78.9%) — Engram’s slot usage should give him more favourable looks in a revenge game against the team that drafted him.

Suggested pick:

Evan Engram o3.5 Receptions (+100)

I think the Giants can keep this game competitive. I loved how they looked last Thursday beating the hell out of the defending Super Bowl Champs. My only issue is trusting Dabol to get these guys focused after a game like that. Broncos are coming off a London game and will be happy to be back home. I'm leaning the over here but its a tough spread game to pick.

Best Bet Over 39.5 -120
Lean Broncos 'O' 23.5 Pts -110
Score Prediction Giants 20 Broncos 27

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Giants): Cam Skattebo +120

Cam Skattebo has become the heartbeat of this Giants offense — and their most trusted weapon inside the 10-yard line. The former Sun Devil’s low center of gravity and violent running style allow him to consistently create yards after contact, and he’s handled 71% of New York’s red-zone carries over the last four games. Even when the Giants face negative game scripts, Skattebo’s usage rarely dips; he’s involved in checkdowns, swing passes, and screens, making him a true three-down option. Against Denver, the ground game will face resistance — the Broncos are holding opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry — but their aggression at the line often leaves them vulnerable to misdirection and delayed draws, both staples of New York’s run scheme. Expect the Giants to manufacture scoring opportunities through tempo and motion, getting Skattebo touches in space before hammering him between the tackles when they get close. If New York finds the red zone, there’s little doubt who finishes the drive.

 

Best Pick: (Broncos): Courtland Sutton TD (+130)

Going off Sutton having a bounce-back game, he scored a TD in that game following his one-catch performance. The Giants are allowing just shy of a TD per game to opposing WRs. Sutton is the only Broncos pass catcher to have more than one receiving TD this season.

 

First TD Scorer

Longshot (Giants): Theo Johnson +1750

Theo Johnson may not draw headlines, but his role inside the red zone is impossible to ignore. Despite modest target totals, he’s been heavily featured on play-action leak routes near the goal line, a staple in Brian Daboll’s red-zone playbook. Denver’s linebackers tend to overcommit when facing heavy personnel, and that’s where Johnson becomes dangerous — sneaking behind the second level for wide-open looks. With Skattebo commanding defensive attention and Dart’s legs forcing containment, the tight end often slips unnoticed into the back corner of the end zone. At long odds, Johnson represents tremendous value as a “first score” dart throw. He’s on the field for more than 85% of red-zone snaps, and with defenses keying on the run, this could be the perfect week for the Giants to pull the trigger on that tight end delay route they’ve been setting up for weeks.

 

Best Pick: (Broncos) Bo Nix First TD (+1400)

The Giants hadn't allowed a rushing TD until last week to Jalen Hurts when the Eagles tush pushed him four consecutive plays. However, that's a bit surprising considering they allow the 11th most rushing yards per game; clearly, they're not great at covering QB scrambles. Nix has just one rushing TD on the season, but it was the first one of the game against the Bengals. Who's to say he can't do it again, against an equally poor defence that has a better pass rush and will force him out of the pocket more?

 Parlay #1 (Giants) +750

Cam Skattebo ATD

Jaxson Dart 'O' 40.5 Rush Yards 

Wan'Dale Robinson 'O' 5.5 Receptions

 

Parlay 1: (Broncos) +240 odds on bet365

Denver Broncos ML

Courtland Sutton 60+ Receiving Yards

Evan Engram 3+ Receptions

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love’s game continues to evolve, and the Packers’ offense looks increasingly confident when the ball is in his hands. His ability to push the ball vertically while maintaining timing on intermediate routes has turned this unit into one of the more efficient passing attacks in the NFC. Against Arizona, Love finds himself facing a defense that has struggled to disguise its coverages pre-snap. The Cardinals’ heavy zone looks have allowed opposing quarterbacks to settle into rhythm throws, giving up multiple passing scores in three of their last four outings. Love’s chemistry with Romeo Doubs and the emerging Matthew Golden gives him two reliable options at different route depths — Doubs winning on boundary fades and Golden exploiting the seams. When the Packers reach the red zone, they often shift into condensed formations that isolate one-on-one matchups off play action. With Arizona’s safeties biting hard on run looks, Love’s touch on layered routes could easily produce a pair of scoring throws in this matchup.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Pass TDs (-155)

 

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs has re-established himself as the focal point of Green Bay’s offense, and this line leans heavily into volume and versatility. His burst through interior gaps has improved behind a healthier offensive line, while his patience in the passing game has made him a consistent safety valve for Love against pressure. Arizona’s defensive front, though aggressive, tends to over-pursue — allowing cutback lanes and soft underneath zones that fit Jacobs’ skill set perfectly. The Cardinals are surrendering more than 125 total yards per game to opposing backfields, with linebackers frequently getting caught flat-footed on checkdowns and screens. Expect the Packers to blend inside-zone concepts early before using Jacobs on swing routes and angle patterns to punish the blitz. Even if the game tilts pass-heavy late, his snap share and route volume give him multiple paths to surpass this number, especially given the Cardinals’ bottom-10 ranking in yards after contact per rush allowed.

Suggested Play:

'O' 74.5 Rush Yards (-115)

 

WR Romeo Doubs

Romeo Doubs continues to solidify his reputation as the offense’s explosive perimeter threat, and this matchup sets up beautifully for a deep connection. Arizona’s coverage structure — primarily Cover 3 and Cover 4 — dares opposing offenses to test the seams and sideline pockets, where Doubs has thrived. His ability to stack defenders off the line and maintain body control on vertical routes has resulted in an 8.56 yards-per-attempt average for Love when targeting him beyond 15 yards. Green Bay’s play-action concepts naturally draw the linebackers forward, opening mid-level windows that Doubs can attack on deep curls and post-corner patterns. The Cardinals’ secondary has yielded multiple receptions of 25+ yards in four straight games, and with Christian Watson still not at full speed, Doubs should once again be the featured deep option. All it takes is one well-timed shot — something this offense has been scheming weekly — for him to clear this mark.

Suggested Play:

'O' 21.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

 

TE Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft’s role in Green Bay’s passing structure has quietly expanded over the past month, particularly on first and second down. While his athleticism has always been evident, it’s his improved timing within Love’s progressions that stands out. Kraft’s routes are designed to stress linebackers in zone coverage, especially on bootlegs and play-action crossers that flood the weak side. Arizona’s defense, ranking third-worst in receptions allowed to tight ends, has consistently struggled to contain intermediate passes over the middle due to poor spacing between their safeties and hook defenders. Expect LaFleur to script quick rhythm throws early to keep Love comfortable, with Kraft catching short outs and stick routes to move the chains. Once the defense adjusts, Green Bay will expand his usage on seams and drag routes underneath the safeties — exactly the type of high-percentage volume needed to push him past four catches. In a game projected to remain competitive, Kraft’s combination of field time and role in the progression should make this prop one of the most efficient plays on the board.

Suggested Play:

'O' 3.5 Receptions (-140)

QB Jacoby Brissett

Jacoby Brissett completed 27 of 44 passes for 320 yards and 2 TD in the Cardinals week 6 loss at Indianapolis. It took one just one start for Brissett to eclipse the 320 yard mark. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray has hit this number once in his last 33 combined starts. This speaks to the depths of despair Kyler Murray has sent the Arizona Cardinals franchise tumbling down. Brissett operated under center for 50% of his dropbacks, a stark contrast to Murray's 23% rate. This is has relevance because playing under center allow a QB to usher in the play-action game. Taking so many snaps in the shotgun prevented Murray from using play action, whereas Brissett completed 12 of 18 passes for 145 yards under this option. He also completed another 15 of 26 for 175 yards on non-play action scenarios. It must be pointed out this came against a banged up Colts defense, but anyone with any degree of common sense was able to see this offense ran far more efficiently with Jacoby Brissett than it ever has with Kyler Murray. Despite playing at the Jiffy Pop, Sunday's home matchup with Green Bay will present far more challenging circumstances. The Packers rank 10th in pressure rate (38.9%) and are giving up a league-best 5.5 YPPA, and against the aforementioned play action game, GB allows the 2nd fewest YPPA at 5.5.

Suggested Play:

Jacob Brissett (Props not yet available)

 

RB Michael Carter/Bam Knight

Arizona chose to go with a split backfield last week in Indianapolis, and it yielded the same nightmarish results we've seen before in the running back by committee approach. Carter finished the game with 11 touches for 64 yards, while Knight turned 12 touches into 54 yards and a TD. In an all too common problem with workload sharing, neither RB got into any kind of rhythm which prevented the Cardinals from the running the ball efficiently. Now, they have a much more difficult matchup on Sunday when they face a Green Bay team that has been excellent against the run, allowing the 4th fewest rushing YPG to opposing RBs (69.8). Neither of the backs have a high ceiling to begin with, so don't complicate things by trying to pick between the two.

Suggested Play:

Pass

 

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Marvin Harrison Jr. rushed himself out of concussion protocol, and this speaks volumes to how desperate he is play alongside an offense where throwing the football is expected out of your starting QB. Harrison was also quoted as saying, "he was excited and the option of playing with a new quarterback." With all of that said, it's hard to know just how much we're going to see Harrison on the field in week 7, especially considering the Cardinals are on bye next week. We also have nothing to go on as far as how Harrison Jr. and Brissett operate with one another on the field. Be that as it may, the Packers give up the 10th most receiving YPG (116.6) and 2nd fewest YPRR to receivers lined up out wide. Harrison Jr. would not be coming back if it wasn't urgent. I can't stress enough how many players in his position would opt out this week and have essentially 2 weeks off with a bye looming. He clearly isn't taking this game lightly, and under the assumption that ARI will struggle to run the football, while being 7-point underdogs at home, I can only imagine the Cardinals will be going to the air late in this game. Regardless of whether or not it comes in garbage time, I think Harrison Jr. puts up some solid numbers this Sunday.

Suggested Play:

Marvin Harrison Jr. o3.5 Receptions (-144)

Marvin Harrison Jr. 50+ Receiving Yards (-121)

 

TE Trey McBride

Trey McBride is the one player we can count on with almost 100% certainty on Sunday. He hauled in 8 his 11 targets for 72 yards and a TD in week 6, while being targeted for a season-high 26.9% of his routes. That number also remained steady with the exit of Marvin Harrison Jr., who left the game after sustaining a concussion. In my write up of Jacoby Brissett, I discussed how the play action game raised the level of Arizona's offense. Trey McBride was a clear benefactor of this as the Cardinals TE was targeted on 43.2% of his routes in the play-action passing game. This is nothing new for McBride who leads his team in targets on play action to the tune of 34.5%. It stands reason why this matchup lends itself specifically to McBride. We've talked at length about the Packers solid defense, but the TE position is one they've had difficulty defending all season long. Opposing tight ends have 26.7% of the targets (7th most) and 28.7% of the receptions (5th most) against Green Bay in '25. In all, the Pack are surrendering an NFL-high 7.8 receptions per game to TEs. They've already given up big games to Sam LaPorta (6-79-0), Zach Ertz (6-64-1), and Jake Ferguson (7-40-1).

Suggested Play:

Trey McBride o6.5 Receptions (-116)

Trey McBride 8+ ALT Receptions (+148)

Trey McBride o59.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Trey McBride 70+ ALT Receiving Yards (+128)

Trey McBride 80+ ALT Receiving Yards (+195)

This Packers team is good and Love is a great road QB. Last week the Cardinals looked very good with Jacoby Brissett racking up 27 points and threw for 320 yards. I think this could be a shootout type of game. We all remember the last time the Packers played on the road.... It was against the Cowboys in Week 4 as they tied 40-40. Give me the Over and the Cardinals to cover the large points @Home

Best Bet Over 43.5 -120
Lean Cardinals +7.5 -110
Score Prediction Packers 27 Cardinals 24

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Packers): Tucker Kraft +150

Tucker Kraft’s role in Green Bay’s passing attack has expanded in both creativity and precision. He’s not just running traditional tight end routes — the Packers are using him in motion, on drag concepts, and in layered play-action sequences that isolate linebackers in conflict. Arizona’s defense has struggled mightily against tight ends, allowing one of the highest completion percentages in the league (over 77%) to the position and ranking bottom-five in red-zone coverage efficiency on interior routes. Kraft’s route tree naturally intersects those weaknesses: he’s most dangerous working off play-action leaks or shallow crossers that exploit defenders who bite on run fakes. Inside the 20, Jordan Love frequently looks for him as a safety valve when the pocket compresses, and Kraft’s 6’5” frame allows him to shield defenders effectively. Expect LaFleur to scheme at least one red-zone shot play that puts Kraft in space — and given how the Cardinals have defended this position, one clean release could turn into six points.

 

Best Bet (Cardinals): Bam Knight +205

Bam Knight saw his number of carries rise from 7 to 11 over the past 2 weeks, and now he finds himself sharing the workload with Michael Carter, except for that Knight has gotten high praise inside the red zone for Arizona. Knight has delivered both times when Jonathan Gannon has given him the ball. I haven't forgotten that, and I can promise you Gannon hasn't either.

 

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Packers): Josh Jacobs +300

Josh Jacobs is the clear early-down and red-zone hammer for this Packers offense, and his usage profile continues to scream first-touchdown potential. Matt LaFleur’s script typically opens with balanced, methodical drives that build around Jacobs’ downhill running style. Against a Cardinals defense ranking near the bottom of the league in rush success rate allowed, Green Bay should find early rhythm attacking between the tackles, especially through their left side where Elgton Jenkins and Zach Tom have been winning leverage battles all season. Jacobs’ short-area power and vision inside the five-yard line give him a clear advantage — he’s accounted for over 70% of Green Bay’s red-zone carries since Week 4 and has scored first in two of the team’s last four games. Expect the Packers to lean on play-action early to stretch the edges before collapsing the box with a misdirection handoff to Jacobs near the goal line. If the opening drive reaches the red zone, it’s highly likely he’s the one finishing it off.

 

Best Bet (Cardinals): Trey McBride +1100

After finding the end zone just one time in the first 5 weeks of the seaons with Kyler Murray at QB, Arizona tight end Trey McBride had no issues connecting with Jacoby Brissett for a touchdown last week against the Colts. The Pack have struggled to defend opposing TEs all season, and the Cardinals know McBride will be locked in early in this game.

Parlay #1 (Packers): +225

Josh Jacobs 'O' 74.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Jordan Love 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs

Josh Jacobs ATD

 

Parlay #1 (Cardinals):  Best Play +440  (DK)

Marvin Harrison Jr. 4+ Receptions

Trey McBride 6+ Receptions

Trey McBride Anytime TD

 

Parlay #2 (Cardinals):  Longshot +5000  (DK)

Marvin Harrison Jr. 4+ Receptions

Trey McBride 7+ Receptions

Trey McBride Anytime TD

Bam Knight Anytime TD

Tucker Kraft Anytime TD

QB Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels steps into a favourable matchup this week against a Dallas defence that has been one of the best to target for opposing QBs. The Cowboys are giving up the most passing yards (286.5) per game and the second-most passing touchdowns (2.5), while allowing the fifth-most completions (24.7) and 10th-most pass attempts (34.3) – music to my over-betting ears. Dallas plays zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL (85.9%), leaning heavily on Cover 2 (29.5%) and Cover 3 (35%). Against zone as a whole, he’s been solid — completing 72.7% of his passes for 7.71 yards per attempt with a mid-tier QBR — but he truly shines against Cover 2. Against the coverage, Daniels completes 81% of his passes (6th best in the league), averages 7.81 yards per attempt (8th), and has a 115.1 QBR (2nd best among quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks). Cover 3 has given him a bit more trouble, as his completion rate drops to 65.8% with 7.0 yards per attempt and an 83.9 QBR. Daniels continues to be one of the most dangerous rushing quarterbacks in football, averaging 44 yards on the ground per game. Even without Terry McLaurin, Daniels should have plenty of opportunities to move the ball through the air and on the ground. In Week 12 of last season against the Cowboys (excluding Week 18, where Daniels didn't have much to play for), who had a better defence than they did this year, Daniels finished with 349 combined yards. We could see another 300+ yard game out of Daniels this week.

Suggested pick:

Jayden Daniels o274.5 Pass & Rush Yards (-115)

 

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Jacory Croskey-Merritt gets the best RB matchup this week against a Dallas defence that has been susceptible to both the run and passes out of the backfield. The Cowboys allow the sixth-most rush attempts (23.2) and eighth-most rushing yards (109.5) per game, while also giving up the most receiving yards (59.2) and third-most receptions (5.8) to opposing RBs. Dallas tends to run more zone concept (42.6%) than man/gap (35.5%), and they perform better in zone, allowing 4.12 yards per carry compared to 4.98 against man/gap. Croskey-Merritt excels against both coverages, averaging 5.76 yards per carry against man/gap and 5.68 against zone, showing he can generate explosive plays no matter what coverage the defence throws at him. His ability to break off long runs is notable, with a 16+ yard gain in three of the six weeks he’s played, even though he’s only started two games. The only concern is a minor fumbling issue in back-to-back games after taking over the lead role. Still, he’s seeing volume — logging 66.7% of the snaps in Week 6, a season high — and the team is likely to continue feeding him early and often.

Suggested Pick:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt o15.5 Longest Rush (-110)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 20+ Longest Rush (+170)

 

WR Deebo Samuel

Deebo carries a questionable injury tag heading into this week, deemed as truly uncertain for this matchup. Hopefully he plays, because it should be a big week for him if he does. The Cowboys allow the 10th most receptions (12.5) and the 3rd most receiving yards (171.2) per game to WRs. That aligns well with Deebo’s high-efficiency, high-YAC profile — especially considering how Dallas struggles to bring down slot receivers after the catch. Considering the Cowboys run the 2nd most zone coverage, Samuel should thrive, as he’s caught 25 of 30 targets for 233 yards this season. Against Cover 2, he’s been consistent year over year — hauling in 5-of-6 targets for 43 yards this season and 8-of-15 for 132 yards last year. He’s even better against Cover 3, with 11 receptions on 15 targets for 109 yards this year and 17-for-23 for 206 yards last season. His 84% catch rate and 6.6 yards after catch per reception in zone make him one of the league’s most efficient zone receivers, using his shiftiness to burn past DBs for extra yards. That plays into his stats, as against zone, he averages a 9.1 yards per reception, 1.85 yards per route run, and a 4.05-yard aDoT — all of which are substantially less than against man coverage. Deebo lines up in the slot on 65% of his snaps. The Cowboys are targeted at the 8th lowest rate to slot receivers (45), but when teams target that position, they don't have a problem connecting, as Dallas allows the 3rd highest catch rate (77.8%) and 6th highest yards per target (8.3).

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel o5.5 Receptions (-140)

Deebo Samuel 8+ Receptions (+240)

 

WR Chris Moore

Well, I guess we finally found our guy? Chris Moore continued to play more snaps than Jaylin Lane and Luke McCaffrey, but we finally saw him catch a ball, turning his five targets into three receptions for 46 receiving yards and a TD. And if Deebo's out for this week, Moore could be in a sneaky spot to build off what he did last week and make an impact against this weak Dallas secondary. Moore has not been utilized much this season, but performances better against zone coverage, catching four of seven targets for 49 receiving yards on 66 routes. Against Cover 2, Moore has just one target for 13 receiving yards this season, and has caught three of his five targets for 36 receiving yards against Cover 3. Moore lines up out wide on 79.6% of his snaps. The Cowboys’ defence allows the second-highest catch rate (71.6%), the fifth-most receiving yards per game (124.2), and the second-highest yards per reception (15.52) to outside wide receivers. It's not pretty, but if he's going to get the snaps of a WR2 in the offence, we want a slice of that pie against the Cowboys.

Suggested pick:

Chris Moore o31.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

Chris Moore 50+ Receiving Yards (+210)

 

TE Zach Ertz

With McLaurin already ruled out, and Deebo potentially on the shelf as well, Ertz might be the number one option for Daniels this week against the Cowboys. Dallas allows the 6th most receptions (6.3) and the 13th most receiving yards (56.2) per game to opposing TEs. And Ertz should be in line for a big week because Dallas runs plenty of zone coverage. Against zone looks, Ertz has been nearly automatic, catching 16 of 18 targets for 159 yards on 102 routes. His 93.8% catch rate and 10.3 yards per reception show that he’s thriving as a short-to-intermediate safety valve for Daniels, with a 7.1 aDoT. When you break it down by coverages, the Cowboys run the most, Ertz has caught five of six passes for 56 yards against Cover 2. And against Cover 3, Ertz is a perfect 5-for-5 for 50 receiving yards, and had huge success against that coverage in 2024, catching 20 balls for 232 receiving yards. Ertz lines up in the slot on 60% of his snaps. The Cowboys may not be targeted heavily to slot receivers (eighth-lowest rate), but they allow the third-highest catch rate (77.8%) and the sixth-highest yards per target (8.3). With the uncertainty of Deebo this week, Ertz's reception line is just too low to overlook.

Suggested pick:

Zach Ertz o3.5 Receptions (-150)

QB Dak Prescott

It's just been so fun watching Dak this season. One would have thought his production would slow down without CeeDee Lamb; however, over the last three weeks, Prescott has 817 passing yards and 10 passing TDs. This week, he gets the Commanders, who are allowing the ninth-most passing yards per game (254) despite allowing the ninth-fewest completions (19.5) and facing the 13th-fewest attempts (30.8) per game. Washington runs man coverage at the 11th-highest rate in the league (29.9%), featuring Cover 1 on 25.2% of their defensive snaps. Prescott’s numbers against man coverage this year have been middle-of-the-pack, but not spectacular — completing 60.9% of his passes (17th), averaging 7.53 yards per attempt (9th), and carrying a 97.3 QBR (15th). Against Cover 1 specifically, his accuracy dips to 56.8% (12th lowest). However, he still pushes the ball effectively with 7.89 yards per attempt (8th highest). The return of CeeDee Lamb could be the difference-maker here. Before his injury, Lamb was among the league’s best WRs against man coverage, ranking sixth in yards (72) through the first two weeks. His ability to separate and win one-on-one battles should provide Prescott with the reliable target he’s been missing in tight coverage situations. Expect the Cowboys’ passing game – which has already been the best this season – to look even more efficient with Lamb’s return, opening up the middle of the field. Which, in turn, should open up Pickens for the deep ball, which the Commanders are susceptible to giving up, allowing the third-highest yards per attempt (8.24) and the fourth-highest aDoT (9.1).

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott 40+ Longest Pass Completion (+115)

 

RB Javonte Williams

Javonte just keeps on trucking along. Who would have thought he would be fourth in the NFL in rushing yards at the third mark of the season? This week, he gets the Commanders' rush defence, who allow the ninth-most rush attempts (22.8) and 15th-most rushing yards (88.7) per game, while also giving up the fourth-most receiving yards (46.8) and the fifth-fewest receptions (3.8) to running backs. Washington runs primarily zone concepts (51.2%) compared to just 29.7% man/gap, but it doesn’t make a huge difference, as they allow 4.1 yards per carry against zone and 4.02 against man/gap. Williams thrives against man/gap coverage, averaging 6.2 yards per carry, while still maintaining a solid 4.2 yards per carry against zone. That versatility gives him a chance to produce effectively no matter what the Washington defence throws at him. Where Williams could see his biggest impact this week is in the passing game. Last week, he saw a season-high seven targets and caught five passes, though he only turned that into five yards. Against the Commanders, who allow 12.3 yards per reception to running backs — the second-highest mark in the NFL — he should have much more success converting those receptions into meaningful yardage. Javonte has cleared this receiving yards line and his longest reception line in three of five weeks.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams o13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Javonte Williams 20+ Receiving Yards (+155)

Javonte Williams o8.5 Longest Reception (-125)

 

WR CeeDee Lamb

It's official, CeeDee Lamb makes his return after a three-week absence. And lucky for him, he's stepping right back into what is the hottest offence in the league. This week, he faces the Commanders defence, who allow the 16th most receptions (11.5) and the 12th most receiving yards (150.8) per game to opposing WRs. With the Commanders running man coverage at the 11th highest rate in the league, he steps right into his preferred coverage. Before his injury, Lamb caught 5 of 9 targets for 72 yards on 29 routes against man this season, with his production spiking against Cover 1 — 4 receptions for 62 yards on 21 routes — a continuation of his dominance against the look in 2024, when he tallied 21 catches for 357 yards on 36 targets. When facing man coverage, Lamb’s metrics jump in yards per reception (15.9), yards after the catch per reception (4.0), yards per route run (3.26), and aDoT (12.8). However, with such a small sample size, we should look into Lamb's numbers against man coverage last year. Well, it's just as good, as he averaged 17.6 yards per catch and 7.0 yards after the catch against man, with a 3.52 yards per route run. While Washington allows only middle-of-the-pack completion and yardage numbers overall, they’ve been far more vulnerable in the slot. Although Lamb has lined up out wide on 70.7% of his routes this season, that’s a small two-week sample size. Last year, he ran over half of his snaps (50.3%) from the slot. The Commanders defence has struggled against opposing slot receivers, allowing the eighth-highest target rate, the sixth-highest catch rate (75.8%), the highest yards per target (9.69), and the third-highest yards per reception (12.79). Lamb will likely move around a ton in the offence, but regardless of where he lines up, it's going to be a mismatch for this Commanders secondary. Against the Commanders last season, Lamb caught all 10 of his targets for 67 receiving yards.

Suggested pick:

CeeDee Lamb o77.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

CeeDee Lamb 100+ Receiving Yards (+210)

 

WR George Pickens

George Pickens stepped up for this Cowboys pass offence, so much so that they didn't skip a beat without Lamb. He caught 19 of his 26 targets for 359 receiving yards in Lamb's three-week absence. He's known for being a man-beater, which is great for this week, considering the Commanders mostly lineup in man. Through 2025, he’s caught 13 of 20 targets for 234 yards on 68 routes against man, with the bulk of that damage coming against Cover 1 — 11 receptions on 15 targets for 211 yards. His success against that look isn’t new, as last season, he torched it for 344 yards on 21 catches. Pickens’ profile shows he’s built for splash plays rather than volume. He averages 16.8 yards per reception against man coverage, identical to his zone efficiency, and averages a high 7.2 yards after the catch per reception against the coverage. However, he sees his catch rate (64.7%) and aDoT (11.3) dip against man. He’s lined up out wide on 89% of his routes this season. Washington allows the ninth-fewest targets to outside receivers and the sixth-lowest catch rate (59.4%), but allows the sixth-highest yards per reception (14.5). Pickens has been phenomenal this season, but we expect his volume to dip with Dak's favourite weapon returning.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens u4.5 Receptions (-145)

 

TE Jake Ferguson

With Lamb returning, it might affect Jake Ferguson the most, but they can't fully just go away from the guy who has the 51 targets this season. This week, he faces the Commanders' defence, which is stingy in terms of volume allowed but still gives up chunk plays to the position. The Commanders allow the seventh-fewest receptions (4.2) but the 11th most receiving yards (56.3) per game to opposing TEs. Ferguson has been relatively quiet against man coverage this season, catching 10 of 13 targets for 53 yards on 54 routes. Against Cover 1 specifically, he’s been even more contained, hauling in six of nine targets for just 17 yards on 37 routes. His efficiency dips across the board in these looks, with a lower catch rate (76.9%), minimal yards after the catch (0.7), and just 5.3 yards per reception. Ferguson runs 52.6% of his snaps in the slot, but that's likely to decrease with Lamb returning. He lines up inline on 39.3% of his snaps. The Commanders are targeted at the 13th highest rate (22), allowing the 11th fewest catch rate (77.3%), but the eighth-most receiving yards per game (34.8), and the second-highest yards per reception (12.3). Given how Washington’s defence operates, this matchup doesn’t set up ideally for Ferguson. His game thrives more when working into soft zone areas, not against man-heavy coverages that limit separation – and now bring Lamb back into the mix. However, we could see him slipping away in this matchup for a medium gain. Ferguson has gone for a 16+ yard reception in three of six weeks this season.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson o15.5 Longest Reception (-115)

Oh boy, are we excited for this game. It's got the highest over/under on the week, and that's probably just because of the Cowboys and how good their offence is, but how bad their defence is. When looking at these two teams, one is getting healthier, while the other is getting more injured. Lamb returns for the Cowboys, while McLaurin – and potentially Deebo – are out for the Commanders. We lean towards the over, but our favorite angle is trusting the Cowboys' offence to lead them to victory at home in a divisional matchup.

Best Bet: Cowboys ML -125
Lean: Over 54.5 -115
Score Prediction: Cowboys 34 Commanders 27

Anytime TD Scorer

 

Best Pick: (Commanders): Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+125)

Deebo has a TD in three of five games this season, and should certainly find the end zone against the Cowboys, who are the only team to allow 2+ receiving TDs per game to opposing WRs. Deebo leads the Commanders in end zone targets with three, converting two of those into TDs.  

 

Best Pick: (Cowboys): CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD (-110)

What better way to welcome your top receiver back than finding him in the end zone? Through his two weeks this season, Lamb did not find the end zone, despite seeing 24 targets. The Commanders are averaging one receiving TD to opposing WRs per game this season. It was surprising to see Lamb see just one red zone target through his first two weeks when Lamb saw 16 last season.

 

First TD Scorer

 

Best Pick: (Commanders) Luke McCaffrey First TD (+1600)

McCaffrey has surprisingly just as many receiving TDs as Deebo and Ertz this season, and with his blazing speed that can take a deep ball to the house at any given moment, gives him a strong chance to score early – especially if Deebo misses this game.

 

Best Pick: (Cowboys) George Pickens First TD (+1000)

While it shouldn't take Dak and Lamb to refind their chemistry, Dak's first look will be toward what he's most familiar with, especially on the first drive. Pickens has six TDs through the previous five weeks, and leads the entire NFL in end zone targets with 13 – outside of Pickens, only Davante Adams has double-digits end zone targets this season.

Parlay 1: (Commanders) +220 odds on bet365

Jayden Daniels 200+ Passing Yards

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 60+ Rushing Yards

Zach Ertz 4+ Receptions

 

Parlay 2: (Cowboys) +210 odds on bet365

Dak Prescott 30+ Pass Attempts

Javonte Williams 70+ Rushing Yards

Jake Ferguson 40+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 3: (Commanders/Cowboys Longshot) +2700 odds on bet365

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 70+ Rushing Yards

Javonte Williams 20+ Receiving Yards

Deebo Samuel 70+ Receiving Yards

CeeDee Lamb 100+ Receiving Yards

QB Michael Penix

Michael Penix has thrown for multiple touchdowns in just 2 of his 5 starts this year, while running for just 37 yards. One big reason we haven't seen consistent numbers out of Penix is because the Falcons rushing attack has been so damn good. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have combined for 671 rushing yards, and while this is good from a team standpoint it has limited Penix when it comes to his passing numbers. The Falcons have 6 rushing TDs, compared to just 4 from the arm of Penix. That said, he has a matchup on SNF that is conducive for his style of play. Penix is a throwback QB in that he rarely uses his legs and likes stay in the pocket. The 49ers rank 31st in pressure rate (29.5%) and Penix's numbers are significantly better when he has time and is able to operate out a clean pocket. SF ranks 16th in passing YPG allowed to opposing QBs (222.5) and Penix is coming off back-to-back games against Washington (12.0) and Buffalo (7.8) where he's recorded his two highest YPPA rates in the '25 season. Since losing arguably the 2 best players at their respective positions in Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, the 49ers have generated the 4th lowest pass rush in the league (27.2%) and recorded the NFL's worst sack rate (2.2%) during this time. When working out of a clean pocket, Penix is averaging 8.4 YPPA (10th best) compared to 5.2 YPPA (22nd) when facing pressure. The only thing that concerns me here is San Francisco is coming off a tough road loss against Tampa Bay and they will be hungry as they return home. I'm not going to gamble on Penix with regard to his TDs throw, but I really like his passing yardage numbers for tonight.

Suggested Pick:

Michael Penix 220+ Pass Yards (-117)

Michael Penix 240+ ALT Pass Yards (+145)

Michael Penix 260+ ALT Pass Yards (+243)

 

RB Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson has been a beast through the first 6 weeks of the season. He's amassed 822 yards from scrimmage, and what's even more impressive is that he's done this in only 5 games as Atlanta has already had their bye week. He's coming off a game vs Buffalo on MNF in which he exploded for 238 yards (170 rushing, 68 receiving). Bijan has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in every one of his games this season, and over his L3 games he has posted totals of 238, 181 and 168 yards. One point of interest here, is since losing Fred Warner, the 49ers have really struggled against combo RBs, allowing 90.9 rush YPG (21st most). Robinson is simply one of the most reliable backs in the league and should have another solid game in week 7.

Suggested Pick:

Bijan Robinson 120+ Rush + Receiving Yards (-123)

Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (-175)

 

RB Tyler Allgeier

It is customary that we cover a RB and two WRs, but considering Atlanta uses Bijan Robinson so much in the passing game and we've gotten literally no production out of the #2 WR spot for the Falcons we are changing the script this week. I mentioned earlier the 49ers struggles against combo backs so there are a couple of reasons why I like Tyler Allgeier tonight. First off, ATL is coming off a short week playing on MNF so I expect to see his usage go up this week. Second, is that he's seen 10 or more touches in 4 of his 5 starts this season (10, 17, 2, 16, 11). Like last week, where I'm backing Allgeier the most is near the goal-line. Believe it or not, Tyler Allgeier has had 7 touches inside the 10-yard line, compared to just 4 for Bijan Robinson and he's out-touched Robinson 4 to 3 when the Falcons have the ball inside the 3. Allgeier has found the end zone 3 times over the last 5 games, while recording a TD in back-to-back weeks.

Suggested Pick:

Tyler Allgeier Anytime TD (+195)

Tyler Allgeier & Bijan Robinson 100+ Combined Rush Yards (-195)

 

WR Drake London

Much of what you're about to read with regard to Drake London is an updated repeat from last week. That said, the Falcons all-pro WR saw an absurd 16 targets last week on MNF, where he caught 10 balls for 158 yards and a TD. He ranks 3rd in the NFL in first-read share (40.1%) and 2nd in overall target share (32.0%), but when Darnell Mooney is not on the field  he is getting a ridiculous 40.6% target rate. Now, Mooney is expected to be available for week 7, but his role is likely to be limited and so this should mean a high volume on Sunday for London. In 3 games Mooney has missed, Drake has drawn 18, 15 and 16 targets. He will face a San Francisco team that employs Cover-3 (35.2%) and Cover-4 (21.0%) at a combined 56.2% clip, and in 73 routes against those coverages in '25, London is averaging 4.16 YPRR and 0.42 TPRR. What I really find appealing on SNF is that even in the chance that Mooney does play and sees an average to high volume of snaps, it creates another advantageous spot for Drake London, because under this scenario it will move the Falcons WR into the slot position. With Mooney on the field, London lines up in the slot for an average of 35.3% of his snaps, and San Francisco is allowing the 5th most YPT (9.4), along with an 8.2% TD rate (5th most) to opposing wide receivers. Furthermore, 47.1% of the balls caught against the 49ers in '25 have come from the slot position (3rd most in NFL). Whether we get a full time Mooney, limited Mooney or no Mooney at all, show me the Mooney for Drake London tonight when faces SF.

Suggested Pick:

Drake London o5.5 Receptions (-145)

Drake London 70+ Receiving Yards (-121)

Drake London o22.5 Longest Reception (-115)

 

TE Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts is coming off a Monday night performance, where he recorded just 3 catches on 4 targets for 18 yards. The Atlanta TE has been on the field for far more snaps than he was last year, but he's yet to eclipse a 20% target rate in any single game this season. San Francisco has a history of shutting down opposing team's TEs, and that can be solely credited to Fred Warner's ability to defend the position on a consistent week-to-week basis. This has become increasingly obvious, as the 49ers have seen a dip in their success vs the tight end spot. Last week, Tampa Bay TE Cade Otton hauled in 5 of 6 targets for 51 yards. That said, the Buccaneers were without all 3 of their top receivers in Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin. In all honesty, Otton should have been able to get open more. I'm not all that confident in Pitts accumulating a bunch of yards in this game, but since losing LB Fred Warner, the 49ers have given up 7 and 5 receptions to opposing starting TEs.

Suggested Pick:

Kyle Pitts o3.5 Receptions (-136)

QB Brock Purdy / Mac Jones

I think both of these offenses can have success here but I'm giving the edge to the 49ers here 

Best Bet 49ers -1.5 -120
Lean Under 47.5 -120
Score Prediction Falcons 20 49ers 27

Anytime TD Scorer

Longshot (49ers): Kendrick Bourne +320

With Pearsall sidelined, Bourne has become the clear WR1 — commanding over 23% of targets and thriving against zone coverage. His sharp route-running against Atlanta’s Cover 3 makes him the top candidate to haul in a mid-range touchdown off play action or a seam split near the red zone.

 

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (49ers) Christian McCaffery +350

With Pearsall sidelined, Bourne has become the clear WR1 — commanding over 23% of targets and thriving against zone coverage. His sharp route-running against Atlanta’s Cover 3 makes him the top candidate to haul in a mid-range touchdown off play action or a seam split near the red zone.

 

Longshot (Falcons): Drake London +950

Drake London's has recorded 3 games with at least 10+ targets, and the Falcons WR is coming off a freakish week 6 performance where he had 10 catches for 158 yards and a TD. London nearly hauled in a 2nd touchdown pass, but he barely stepped out of bounds on the 1-yard line as the clock ran out heading into the locker room for halftime. Atlanta has been far more efficeint in moving the ball as of late. Now, Michael Penix will face a 49ers defense that has the 4th worst pressure rate in the NFL without DE Nick Bosa, and Michael Penix is averaging 8.3 YPPA (10th in NFL), when operating out of a clean pocket.

 

Parlay #1 (49ers) +500

Christian McCaffery ATD

Kendrick Bourne ATD

 

Parlay #1 (Falcons):  Best Bet  +315 (DK)

Michael Penix 200+ Pass Yards

Drake London 60+ Receiving Yards

Bijan Robinson 110+ Rush + Receiving Yards 

Bijan Robinson Anytime TD

 

Parlay #2 (Falcons):  Longshot  +4000 (DK)

Michael Penix 220+ Pass Yards

Bijan Robinson 100+ Rush + Receiving Yards

Drake London 100+ Receiving Yards

Drake London Anytime TD

Tyler Allgeier Anytime TD