The Seahawks come into this game with so much momentum winning their last 6 games including the last 2 against the 49ers & Rams. They will be going up against a very good defense in the Patriots. This defense is the only reason the Pats are in the Super Bowl but what can’t be ignored is this defense has not seen a complete offense like Seattle! 

Patriots Defense 
In the 3 Playoff games the Patriots have played it’s been easy matchup to be honest for this defense 

Vs Chargers 
That Chargers O-Line was so bad it was only going to take them so far. In this game Herbert was pressured 63.6% of the time! That is an unbelievable rate and when Herbert was pressured he completed 8/15 passes for 72 yards but the issue was he got sacked 6x having a 13.6% Sack% for the game. 

Vs Texans
CJ Strouds #1 weapon Nico Collins was out in this game and Stroud was just completely lost making so many mental errors that gave the Patriots great field position time and time again. 

Vs Broncos 
The Broncos were without their starting QB in Bo Nix. Patriots in this game got absolutely shut down on offense by that Broncos defense. 

Patriots are a hell of a football team I’m not taking that away from them but have they proven they can consistently compete with teams like Seattle?!?! The answer is no. They’ve had the 10th easiest strength of schedule. Now let’s get into the breakdown on what to expect from the Patriots defense & Seattles offense 

 

Seahawks Run Offense 

Seahawks have good balanced run game but are coming off a game against the Rams where they struggled and it won’t get any easier against a Patriots rushing defense that has been much improved! Milton Williams is the key for this Patriots run defense  

 

With Milton Williams (14 games)

3.24 YPC

1.9% EXP% 

1.35 YBC

62.5 Rush Yds Per Game

 

Without Milton Williams (7 games) 

5.01 YPC

7.1% EXP% 

3.39 YBC

133.5 Rush Yds Per Game 

 

WOW look at the difference he makes! All I’m saying is if Milton gets hurt during the game best believe we could see a good live bet on Kenneth Walker yards. Here is an interesting stat. In those 14 games Milton Williams played they have allowed just 3 rushing touchdowns on while allowing 23 goal line rush attempt. What’s even more crazy is the 66% of the Seahawks goal line carries have been to the A or B gap. The Patriots have allowed 1.57 YPC allowing just 1 TD on 14 attempts on those types of runs. I don’t expect the Seahawks to run the ball much in the Redzone 

Sam Darnold is going to be ask to do a lot of offense today for this Seahawks offense because that run game will be extremely tough to get going. The Seahawks have been held to under 3.25 YPC rushing in 5 games this year. In these games the passing game still performed well despite the lack of run game support. In these 5 games Darnold was extremely aggressive attacking down field having a 13.6% deep throw rate. On the season he holds a 10.4% which ranked #14/24 qualified QB’s. If you can’t make it a grind it out type of game on the ground you are more likely to take more chances down field and I expect that to be the same as Darnold has been the best deep ball thrower this year 

 

On Deep Pass Attempts 

Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt

1. Sam Darnold (21.4)
2. Drake Maye (17.6)
3. Matthew Stafford (17.3)
4. Jalen Hurts (16.7)
5. Lamar Jackson (16.5)

 

Highly Accurate Throw Rate 

1. Sam Darnold (52.1%) 
2. Joe Burrow (51.7%) 
3. Jared Goff (50.0%) 

 

Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak is known for his under center play action usage and mixing that up with some designed boots/rollouts. Only issue is this type of play feeds into what the Patriots are really good at. This year the Patriots rank #1 in designed rollouts and boots/direct rollouts.

The big key is for Seattle on offense is being able to keep Darnold a clean pocket to attack over the middle/downs field. The Patriots with Milton Williams are pressuring the QB 44.0% (2nd highest rate) and while generating pressure they have allowed a 56.9 QBR #6/32 5.84 YPA #12/32 and hold a 16.2% SK% ranking #14/32. Darnold is great in early downs but around middle of the pack on 3rd downs. The key for the Patriots defense is to force 3rd and mediums/longs. If they do that I think they can slow down Darnold and this offense. One thing the Patriots do at the 5th highest rate is stunt which means where two or more defensive players exchange roles and gaps to confuse offensive blockers and pressure the quarterback. Seattle this year on stunts rank #20 in adjusted net yards per pass att compared to #3 when not getting a stunt

Jaxson Smith Njigba will be looking to end do his historic season with a ring and this matchup for him is pretty good. As stated above if that Seahawks run game isn’t clicking Darnold is more likely to take risk downfield and the guy he relies on when doing so is JSN having 52.0% of the teams deep ball targets. The Patriots heavily rely on Cover 1,2,3. Darnold is an absolute beast against man coverage so I expect the Patriots to show zone a ton and run man only in certain situations. NE allows a 62% first read rate 4th LOWEST rate and I think the plan for the Patriots is gonna have to be trying to keep him below 100 yards. Just 12.2% of his routes are static and the Patriots allow the 2nd HIGHEST YPRR on static route concepts (1.75). Now JSN runs 37.3% of his routes in vertical breaking and on those type of routes the Patriots allow the 2nd LOWEST YPRR (0.93). That’s gonna lead us into our next guy Cooper Kupp who runs 22.9% of routes static and 22.6% vertical. That’s very interesting not only that but as stated above the Patriots stunt a TON of defense and here is the target%/YPRR on stunt looks this year 

 

Jaxson Smith 27.5% TGT% 3.09 YPRR 

Cooper Kupp 23.8% TGT% 1.46 YPRR

Rashid Shaheed 13.8% TGT% 1.03 YPRR

AJ Barner 10.0% TGT% 0.66 YPRR

Kenneth Walker 5.0% TGT% 0.96 YPRR

 

As stated above NE does a really good job at taking that first read away and I think at times that is going to benefit Cooper Kupp a ton. The Patriots know how big of a threat the Darnold/JSN connection is on deepballs and I think that could potentially open up some spots around the middle of the field for Kupp who has been in a big time game like this before. 

 

Seattle Offense vs High Pressure Defenses 

The Patriots with Milton Williams are pressuring the QB 44.0% (2nd highest rate) and this season Darnold went up against 2 teams  who held a 40.1+% Pressure Rate in the season. In these games Darnold struggled getting pressured 37.5% of the time completing 31/57 attempts 54.5% CMP% having 5.98 YPA holding a 70.9 QBR averaging just 170.5 passing yards per

To recap against high pressure teams Darnold has struggled in the small 2 game sample size and this Patriots defense with Milton Williams has been unreal. I think Seattle is absolutely the better team in this spot but if I had to put my money where my mouth is I think it’s going to be a grind it out type of game. You know what they say…. Defense wins championships and It’s gonna come down to who can get the most stops late.

Patriots Offense 

NE played a VERY easy regular season schedule. One area that concerns me is how Maye and the Patriots have looked at times against elites defenses. For instance in 3 Playoff games he has faced the Chargers, Texans & the Broncos. Just take a look at the splits on offense in the regular season compared to facing the tough defenses in the Playoffs 

Passing Attack 

Playoffs (3 Games) 

Drake Maye 

6.92 YPA 

55.8% CMP% 

4 TD 2 INT 6 Fumbles 

 

Regular Season (17 Games) 

8.93 YPA

72.0% CMP% 

31 TD 8 INT 8 Fumbles

 

Rushing Attack 

Playoffs (3 Games) 

3.35 YPC 

2.4% EXP% 

1.30 YBC

 

Regular Season (17 Games) 

4.80 YPC

6.3% EXP% 

2.01 YBC

 

As you see they’ve had major trouble. They’ve won the game on the defensive end in these games getting great field position at a crazy clip. It doesn’t get any easier in the Super Bowl on the biggest stage facing Seattle who rank #2 in EPA/Play allowed 5th in EPA/Dropback allowed and 1st in EPA/Rush allowed. Oh I forgot…. That’s while playing the 10th hardest strength of schedule

There are very few weaknesses for this Seattle unit but one thing for sure is the Patriots are gonna have to take advantage of the weaknesses they’ve got.

Weaknesses #1 Mobile QB’s

This Seattle unit has faced a lot of Pocket QB’s such as Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford & Aaron Rodgers. Now when I say struggling against Mobile QB’s you would think QB’s crush them on the ground…. Not this Seahawks team. Drake Maye holds a 10.1% scramble (3rd most) while having the MOST scrambles. We’ve seen Maye’s legs bail out this Patriots offense plenty of times this year specifically in the Playoffs. Maye is leaving the pocket 25% of his total dropbacks and in “scramble drill’ in nearly 20% of his dropbacks. Scramble drill means leaving the pocket on straight dropbacks that resulted in him leaving the pocket having a throw, sack or scramble. The Seahawks have allowed the 10th FEWEST YPC to QB scrambles (6.90). Drake Maye this year has 71 scrambles and ALL 71 have came when he was under pressure. Not all pressures though are the same….. Maye averages just 1.24 scramble yards per dropbacks this season when facing pressure under 2.5 seconds but 2.20 scramble yards per dropbacks when facing pressure of 2.5+ seconds. That is a concern as the Seahawks pressure comes QUICK having the 2nd LOWEST average time to pressure (2.39 seconds) 53% of their pressured arrive within 2.5 seconds (5th lowest rate) while just 18.3% resulted in slow pressure of 2.5+ seconds (6th highest rate). Maye could absolutely rise to the occasion but I think this could cause him some trouble. The area that the Seahawks struggle against is through the air when QB’s get out of the pocket. Just take a look at these splits 

 

Seahawks Defense vs Straight Dropbacks

#1 in YPA (6.1)

#2 in CPOE (-2.4%) 

#4 in QBR (79.3)

 

Seahawks Defense vs Scramble Drill

#29 in YPA (7.5)

#32 in CPOE (+8.3%) 

#31 in QBR (85.3) 

 

This Seattle defense makes it very hard for you to beat them on straight dropbacks. The concern with that is Drake Maye ranks 2nd in EPA/play from inside the pocket compared to ranking 19th when outside the pocket. When specifically in “Scramble Drill” he has the 4th worst adjusted YPA on these dropbacks. I think for the Patriots to find success here it’s gonna have to be a lot of plays with Maye extending drives making things happen through the air on broken plays in big time situations. 

 

Patriots Pass Game What to Attack/Fade
The Seahawks deploy zone at the 7th highest rate in the NFL (76.0%) and specifically Cover 6 at the 3rd highest rate (18.4%). In the Playoffs the Seahawks have ran Zone (65.8%) allowing 0.40 FP/DB and running man (30.3%) allowing 0.68 FP/DB. They have ran Cover 4 & 6 a combined (52.6%). With that being said Cover 6 just so happens to be Drake Mayes worst coverage type to go against averaging 7.39 YPA a 96.0 QBR & a very very high 11.4% Sack Rate. It’s bad for Maye but it’s good if you are stacking him up against other QB’s against Cover 6. In the Playoffs he has completed just 9/17 attempts on 20 Dropbacks against this look having a 6.0 YPA while having a 46.7 QBR. I’m expected a pretty good usage of Cover 6 for this Seattle defense and the player who can exploit that is Kayshon Boutte… just take a look at his season splits 

 

Vs Cover 4 

5 Receptions for 94 yards (18.8 YPR) 

2.61 YPRR

 

Vs Cover 6 

3 Receptions for 64 yards (21.3 YPR) 

2.21 YPRR

 

Man Coverage 

7 Receptions for 116 yards (16.57 YPR)

1.16 YPRR 

 

Cover 4 & 6 are the worst coverages the Seahawks have deployed this year in terms of YPRR 

 

Seahawks Defense by Coverage Type

Cover 6 (1.64 YPRR) 

Cover 4 (1.48 YPRR) 

Cover 2 (1.28 YPRR) 

Cover 3 (1.19 YPRR) 

Cover 0 (1.00 YPRR) 

Cover 1 (0.94 YPRR) 

I expect Boutte to maintain his full usage as in the AFC championship game Mack Hollins returned but Boutte saw a 72.4% Route participation having a 28.6% target share.

 

In terms of a consistent play I think Stefon Diggs is the safe play in terms of an ALT or however you would like to play it. Diggs averages a team high 2.56 YPRR against Cover 6 just in front of Boutte. He has a team high 16 receptions on 18 targets showing his consistency to capitalize against these looks. He runs 59.5% out of the slot and 40.5% out of the Wideout. Against Cover 4 & 6. His best routes types have been 

Crosser Route (23.1%) averaging 2.44 YPRR 

Hitch Route (12.8%) averaging 1.90 YPRR

In/Dig (9.0%) averaging 4.25 YPRR

Out (9.0%) averaging 8.71 YPRR

Slant (9.0%) averaging 2.71 YPRR

 

He runs one of the route types (62.9%). Look where Seattle is vulnerable on route types to Slot & Wideout receivers 

 

Crossers 

1.78 YPRR 8/11 for 73 yards 

 

Hitch 

1.68 YPRR 19/23 for 173 yards 

 

In/Dig 

1.13 YPRR 10/18 for 101 yards

 

Out 

1.42 YPRR 17/22 for 151 yards 

 

Slant 

3.66 YPRR 7/9 for 128 yards 

 

Diggs will have his chances to make an impact in this game 

 

Hunter Henry Against Cover 4 & 6 he averages just 0.90 YPRR having 9 targets on just 86 routes ran. Cover 2 he averages 1.36 YPRR and Cover 3 he averaged 2.84 YPRR. The Seahawks have the best Cover 3 defense in the NFL allowing the lowest YPRR (1.19) 2nd lowest YPR (9.74) while allowing a league low (63.3% CMP%). When running Cover 2 they give up the 8th lowest YPRR (1.28). Where Henry thrives is where the Seahawks are elite and where the Seahawks are weak is where Henry struggles. Now on the season Seattle alllows the 3rd most targets to opposing TE’s. They’ve also allowed the 4th highest target rate to shallow/underneath routes. Henry averages 2.49 YPRR on those concept. This is a spot where I can see him not doing anything or having a decent game. 

 

Patriots Rushing Attack 

This is arguably the most important factor on how this game will go. Can the Patriots somehow find some success on the ground to open up this passing game potentially?!?!? It’s such a tall task facing this Seattle front who is in your face as soon as you get that hand off as they allow 1.30 YBC which ranks #3/32. The two in front are the Texans & Broncos. Both teams the Patriots just so happened to face in the Playoffs and the run game has STRUGGLED in those games 

 

61 Team Attempts 

3.05 YPC 

1.6% EXP% 

1.18 YBC

93.0 Rush Yds per game 

 

Things can happen but it’s gonna be tough to get any success on the ground. Only thing that could change my opinion is if the Seahawks go down with a couple key injuries during the game.

 

Pass Protection

This is mind blowing after looking at the stats. That is a concern as the Seahawks pressure comes QUICK having the 2nd LOWEST average time to pressure (2.39 seconds). Listen to this…. The Patriots have faced 5 teams that rank top 7 in average time to pressure. In these 5 games Maye has been pressured 45.0% of the time holding an insane 14.3% Sack% while taking a sack on 31.8% of pressured which is BRUTAL. In these games Maye was sacked 6,6,5,5,5 times. If Seattle forces 2nd 3rd and longs it’s going to be a LONG day for this Patriots offense. 

 

Backfield/Short Receivers 

This is one area that Seattle has been vulnerable is allowing the HIGHEST backfield target rate in the NFL. When Seattle is in man coverage they allow a 8% backfield target rate #20/32. When they are in zone that jumps up to 24% ranking #1/32. This pass rush will be way too much for this Patriots front and those short passes are going to be there. Rhamondre Stevenson is going to be active in the passing game. Against teams top 5 in average time to pressure they have played 3 games and backfield receivers have had 4/79, 0/0, 6/57

 

To recap there is not a whole lot of positives coming into this game for this Patriots offense. I’m not saying the Patriots crawled to the Super Bowl they definitely earned it. Well the defense has but we can’t forget they faced Justin Hebert with one of the worst O-Lines of all time. CJ Stroud without Nico Collins and Denver without their starting QB. They’ve had break after break and now they find themselves in a situation against a juggernaut Seahawks team that is healthy and out for revenge to erase the memory from a lot of Seattle fans about that last Patriots vs Seahawks Super Bowl

I think Seattle is the better football team but one thing I am confindent in is both of these offenses will striggle at times. I think the under is the best play here

Best Bet: Under 45.5 -120
Lean: SEA ML/ALT Under 56.5 -145