QB Drake Maye

During the regular season, Maye averaged 258.5 passing yards per game, 8.93 YPA and a 72% completion rate. He threw 31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. In the post season, Maye is averaging 177.7 passing yards per game, 6.92 YPA and a 55.8% completion rate. He’s thrown 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that ranked 8th best in EPA/Pass and allowed the 10th fewest passing yards per game in the regular season (193.9). The Seahawks are allowing 259 passing yards per game in the post season. The Seahawks blitz at the 8th lowest rate but are middle of the pack in pressure rate (38.3%). Maye averages 8.87 YPA, a 73% completion rate and a 106 QB rating when not blitzed. Seattle plays two-high at the 6th highest rate (55.9%) and zone coverage at the 5th highest rate (77.1%). Maye has negative splits against two-high, averaging 7.41 YPA, a 69.2% completion rate and a 104.6 QB rating. Against zone coverage, he averages 8.78 YPA, a 74.3% completion rate and a 102.8 QB rating. In terms of the running matchup, the past 4 QBs went over their respective rushing yards line against Seattle. Stafford ran for 16 yards, Purdy 37 and 21 yards and Bryce Young went for 27. Maye’s rushing yards line sits at the high 30s, this feels efficient. I lean under on his pass + rushing yards line but don’t mind an anytime touchdown longshot.

Suggested Pick:

Under 263.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-114)

Anytime Touchdown (+325)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson/Treveyon Henderson

In the first playoff game against the Chargers, Stevenson had a 62% snap rate compared to Henderson’s 41%. Stevenson had 10 carries for 53 yards, while Henderson had 9 carries for 27 rushing yards. In the receiving game, Stevenson had a 57.5% route participation rate to Henderson’s 17.5%. In the 2nd playoff game, Rhamondre had a 62% snap rate to Henderson’s 38%. Stevenson was once again more effective, rushing 16 times for 70 yards, compared to Treveyon’s 12 attempts for just 25 yards. Rhamondre also caught 4 of 4 targets for 11 receiving yards. In the Conference Championship against the Broncos, Rhamondre had 60 offensive snaps to Henderson’s 4. He rushed for 71 yards on 25 attempts. It’s clear coach Vrabel will lean on Stevenson in the big moments. They’ll face a stout run defense that ranked number 1 in EPA/Rush allowed in the regular season. They also allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards per game (91.9). Seattle allows the least YPC to man/gap concept (3.2) and the 5th fewest to zone concept (3.81). 61.5% of Rhamondre’s attempts have been man/gap, where he’s averaging 4.94 YPC, compared to 4.19 YPC in zone concept. In terms of the receiving matchup, the Seahawks allow the 3rd most receptions and the 13th most receiving yards to RBs. Rhamondre did not catch a pass last game but I’d expect him to be more involved here, especially with what is expected to be a losing game script. 

Suggested Pick:

Rhamondre Stevenson O 3.5 Receptions (+137)

WR Stefon Diggs

During the regular season, Diggs averaged 59.6 receiving yards per game, 2.53 YPRR and was targeted on 25% of his routes. He led the team in 1st-read rate at 22.1%. In the post season, Diggs has been held in check, averaging 24.3 receiving yards per game, 0.90 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. He’s 2nd on the team in 1st-read rate at 24.6%. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that ranked 8th best in EPA/Pass and allowed the 10th fewest receiving yards per game in the regular season (193.9). In the playoffs, Diggs has lined up in the slot on 51.9% of his routes and out wide on 48.1%. The Seahawks allow the 12th fewest YPRR (1.68) and the 7th lowest catch rate (67.1%) to slot alignment. They allow the fewest YPRR (1.49) and the 3rd lowest catch rate (58.2%) to wide alignment. The Seahawks blitz at the 8th lowest rate but are middle of the pack in pressure rate (38.3%). When Maye is not blitzed, Diggs averages 2.62 YPRR and 23% TPRR. Seattle plays two-high at the 6th highest rate (55.9%) and zone coverage at the 5th highest rate (77.1%). Diggs averages 2.55 YPRR and 25% TPRR against zone coverage. Against two-high, Diggs averages 2.24 YPRR and 26% TPRR. The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs and the Seahawks have arguably the best run defense in the league, but their pass defense is top notch as well. We’ll see if this Patriots offense can get going.

Suggested Pick:

Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

WR Kayshon Boutte

During the regular season, Boutte averaged 39.4 receiving yards per game, 1.56 YPRR and was targeted on 13% of his routes. Boutte leads the Patriots in receiving during the post season. He’s averaging 49 receiving yards per game, 1.93 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. He leads the team in 1st-read rate at 26.3%.  He’ll face a Seahawks defense that ranked 8th best in EPA/Pass and allowed the 10th fewest receiving yards per game in the regular season (193.9). In the playoffs, Boutte has lined up out wide on 93.4% of his routes. The Seahawks allow the fewest YPRR (1.49) and the 3rd lowest catch rate (58.2%) to wide alignment. The Seahawks blitz at the 8th lowest rate but are middle of the pack in pressure rate (38.3%). When Maye is not blitzed, Boutte averages 1.58 YPRR and 13% TPRR. Seattle plays two-high at the 6th highest rate (55.9%) and zone coverage at the 5th highest rate (77.1%). Boutte averages 1.79 YPRR and 14% TPRR against zone coverage. Against two-high, Boutte averages 1.29 YPRR and 10% TPRR. The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs and the Seahawks have arguably the best run defense in the league, but their pass defense is top notch as well. We’ll see if this Patriots offense can get going.

Suggested Pick:

Under 2.5 Receptions (-137)

TE Hunter Henry

During the regular season, Henry averaged 45.2 receiving yards per game, 1.73 YPRR, 19% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 18.5%. In the post season, Henry is averaging just 27 receiving yards per game, 1.09 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. He has a 1st-read rate of 17.5%. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that ranked 8th best in EPA/Pass and allowed the 10th fewest receiving yards per game in the regular season (193.9). In the playoffs, Henry has lined up in the slot on 50% of his routes and inline on 33.8%. The Seahawks allow the 12th fewest YPRR (1.68) and the 7th lowest catch rate (67.1%) to slot alignment. They allow the 14th fewest YPRR (1.76) and the 10th lowest catch rate (74.3%) to inline. The Seahawks blitz at the 8th lowest rate but are middle of the pack in pressure rate (38.3%). When Maye is not blitzed, Henry averages 1.66 YPRR and 17% TPRR. Seattle plays two-high at the 6th highest rate (55.9%) and zone coverage at the 5th highest rate (77.1%). Henry averages 1.96 YPRR and 18% TPRR against zone coverage. Against two-high, Henry averages 1.08 YPRR and 16% TPRR. The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs and the Seahawks have arguably the best run defense in the league, but their pass defense is top notch as well. We’ll see if this Patriots offense can get going.

Suggested Pick:

Over 3.5 Receptions (-123)

Best Bet: 
Lean:

First Touchdown

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +1600

Henry leads the Patriots in receiving touchdowns with 8. He’s also been targeted 22 times inside the 20 yard line, the next highest on the Patriots is Diggs with 13 targets. Not a great matchup but none of the Patriots have good matchups against this stout Seahawks defense. Henry scored in the first round of the playoffs, thinking he’s due for one here in the Super Bowl. He’s also been a 1st half touchdown guy all season, be first!

Anytime Touchdown

Drake Maye (Patriots) +325

Maye rushed 10 times for 65 yards and a touchdown last week against the Broncos. In the first round of the playoffs, he rushed 10 times for 66 yards against the Chargers. Maye’s rushing yards line is set at 37.5, books expect him to use his legs in the biggest game of the season. Seahawks have been susceptible to running QBs as of late and I wouldn’t be surprised if Maye plays hero ball as a 4.5-point underdog, meaning more drop backs and times to scramble.

Parlay #1 (Patriots) +2070

Drake Maye Under 263.5 Pass + Rushing Yards
Drake Maye Anytime Touchdown
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 3.5 Receptions