QB Sam Darnold
Several folks were waiting on the Sam Darnold playoff implosion if he was pressed to make throws. He showed up in the NFC championship with some big time plays as they kept pace with a high-powered Rams offense. The offense put up 31 points and Darnold finished 25 of 36 (69.4%) for 346 yards, three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He also chipped up 3 carries for 9 yards. With how good New England’s run defense has been, he’ll likely have to make throws in this game too. A big part of New England’s success on defense has been creating turnovers. We saw a costly fumble in the AFC championship that led to New England’s only touchdown. They also had a late game interception in the game to seal it. In the Divisional Round, they forced four interceptions from Stroud and in the Wild Card Round, two fumbles from Herbert. Darnold has done a really good job at mitigating turnovers that dates back into the regular season. Over the past 9 games, he holds only a 1.6% interception rate. A big part of Darnold’s throwing success this season has come with the use of play-action. With play-action, Darnold is averaging 11 yards per pass attempt (2nd highest) and 16 yards per completion (highest) and a 10% touchdown rate (2nd highest). On non-play action passes, Darnold hasn’t been as successful. He’s averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt (4th highest), 11 yards per completion (13th highest) and a 3.7% touchdown rate (29th highest). Still pretty good, but not as good. The Patriots have been pretty good at defending play action this season. They rank 10th lowest in completion rate (63%), 6th lowest in yards per attempt (6.7) and 11th lowest in touchdown rate (4.4%). This along with having a stout run defense to make play-action less effective, makes for an interesting matchup for Darnold and this offense. With New England able to bring pressure and limit efficiency on play action, I’m not sure how efficient Darnold will be. I still think the throwing volume will have to be there against a defense that doesn’t allow anything in the run game.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 228.5 Passing Yards (-110)
‘O’ 19.5 Passing Completions (-109)

RB Kenneth Walker III
With Zach Charbonnet tearing his ACL in the Divisional Round, we expected Walker to get almost all of the work in the NFC Championship. That ended up being the case as he out-touched George Holani 23 to 6. Walker had an inefficient day in the run game, logging 19 carries for 62 yards and a touchdown. As a receiver, he caught 4 balls on 4 targets for 49 yards. He now faces a better run defense that has limited opposing backs all playoffs - R.J. Harvey (13 attempts for 37 yards), Woody Marks (14 for 17) and Kimani Vidal (10 for 57). In order to try and establish the play action, Seattle will certainly run the ball, but I’m expecting another inefficient game for Walker here. In the regular season, the Patriots allowed the 13th lowest yards per carry (4.21), but did allow the 19th highest explosive run rate (4.1%). However, in the playoffs they have really clamped down on the run. Allowing just 3.15 yards per carry and just a 1.5% explosive run rate. If Walker is going to find success, it’ll likely have to come on an explosive play - something that has helped him tremendously this season. It’s just difficult to see a path to success on the ground in this game. He’s a fade for me as a rusher, but is interesting as a pass catcher. Walker has 3+ catches in each of his last three games with 4 in two of them. With good pressure and a solid coverage unit, it makes sense that Walker could be used more in the passing game especially without Charb.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 74.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-110)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues his incredible season in the NFC Championship as Darnold’s clear top target. He finished with 10 catches on 12 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown. Even though he’ll likely see Christian Gonzalez this week, it’s hard to think he won’t continue to be the centerpiece of this offense. The Patriots play plenty of man coverage - 9th highest rate in the league this season. In the AFC Championship they played man over 40% of the time! Part of that was likely due to the weather (and backup QB), but they should still play plenty of man in this game. JSN gets a heavy target share against man coverage - the 6th highest rate in the league. He also sees plenty of volume when Darnold is under pressure. JSN ranks 6th highest in target rate when the defense is able to generate pressure. Even if Gonzalez does a good job on JSN, they move him around so much they’ll find a way to get him the ball. He even lines up in the backfield! With the expected volume and New England being a pass-funnel defense, I’ll look to back JSN once again in the reception department. His yardage total is high, so I like the idea of playing receptions and sprinkling on an alt yardage total.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (-120)
125+ Receiving Yards (+300)

WR Cooper Kupp
Certainly not as involved as JSN, but Kupp continues to look like the number two wide receiver in this offense. In another revenge spot against his former team - the third matchup this season - he posted 4 catches on 6 targets for 36 yards and a touchdown. He has 4+ catches and 5+ targets in both playoff games. Kupp doesn’t play exclusively out of the slot (46.4% of the time), but plays there the most on the team. New England has been pretty stingy against slot wide receivers, allowing the 10th fewest yards per game to the slot (59.5) and 5th lowest yards per reception (9.55). However, they have also allowed the 4th highest targets per route run (0.24) to the slot. Ultimately, I don’t think Kupp is going to see much volume in this game with JSN and Barner on the field. With a high concentration on JSN and what could be a slow methodical game, I’ll fade Kupp on receptions and take a little plus EV in the process.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-143)

TE A.J. Barner
Barner did not do much against the Rams two weeks ago, finishing with a pair of catches for 13 yards on 3 targets. A bit of a letdown after Barner had great showing in both regular season matchups (10 for 70 and 4 for 49 with a TD). He had 6 and 11 targets in those two matchups. I’m expecting more involvement here with the pressure that New England can bring. Barner is targeted at the 4th highest rate among tight ends when the quarterback is under pressure. New England has generated the highest pressure rate (54.9%) of all playoff teams. Both the Broncos and Texans tight ends were involved in the passing attack and I’m expecting that again here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Drake Maye

During the regular season, Maye averaged 258.5 passing yards per game, 8.93 YPA and a 72% completion rate. He threw 31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. In the post season, Maye is averaging 177.7 passing yards per game, 6.92 YPA and a 55.8% completion rate. He’s thrown 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that ranked 8th best in EPA/Pass and allowed the 10th fewest passing yards per game in the regular season (193.9). The Seahawks are allowing 259 passing yards per game in the post season. The Seahawks blitz at the 8th lowest rate but are middle of the pack in pressure rate (38.3%). Maye averages 8.87 YPA, a 73% completion rate and a 106 QB rating when not blitzed. Seattle plays two-high at the 6th highest rate (55.9%) and zone coverage at the 5th highest rate (77.1%). Maye has negative splits against two-high, averaging 7.41 YPA, a 69.2% completion rate and a 104.6 QB rating. Against zone coverage, he averages 8.78 YPA, a 74.3% completion rate and a 102.8 QB rating. In terms of the running matchup, the past 4 QBs went over their respective rushing yards line against Seattle. Stafford ran for 16 yards, Purdy 37 and 21 yards and Bryce Young went for 27. Maye’s rushing yards line sits at the high 30s, this feels efficient. I lean under on his pass + rushing yards line but don’t mind an anytime touchdown longshot.

Suggested Pick:

Under 263.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-114)

Anytime Touchdown (+325)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson/Treveyon Henderson

In the first playoff game against the Chargers, Stevenson had a 62% snap rate compared to Henderson’s 41%. Stevenson had 10 carries for 53 yards, while Henderson had 9 carries for 27 rushing yards. In the receiving game, Stevenson had a 57.5% route participation rate to Henderson’s 17.5%. In the 2nd playoff game, Rhamondre had a 62% snap rate to Henderson’s 38%. Stevenson was once again more effective, rushing 16 times for 70 yards, compared to Treveyon’s 12 attempts for just 25 yards. Rhamondre also caught 4 of 4 targets for 11 receiving yards. In the Conference Championship against the Broncos, Rhamondre had 60 offensive snaps to Henderson’s 4. He rushed for 71 yards on 25 attempts. It’s clear coach Vrabel will lean on Stevenson in the big moments. They’ll face a stout run defense that ranked number 1 in EPA/Rush allowed in the regular season. They also allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards per game (91.9). Seattle allows the least YPC to man/gap concept (3.2) and the 5th fewest to zone concept (3.81). 61.5% of Rhamondre’s attempts have been man/gap, where he’s averaging 4.94 YPC, compared to 4.19 YPC in zone concept. In terms of the receiving matchup, the Seahawks allow the 3rd most receptions and the 13th most receiving yards to RBs. Rhamondre did not catch a pass last game but I’d expect him to be more involved here, especially with what is expected to be a losing game script. 

Suggested Pick:

Rhamondre Stevenson O 3.5 Receptions (+137)

WR Stefon Diggs

During the regular season, Diggs averaged 59.6 receiving yards per game, 2.53 YPRR and was targeted on 25% of his routes. He led the team in 1st-read rate at 22.1%. In the post season, Diggs has been held in check, averaging 24.3 receiving yards per game, 0.90 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. He’s 2nd on the team in 1st-read rate at 24.6%. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that ranked 8th best in EPA/Pass and allowed the 10th fewest receiving yards per game in the regular season (193.9). In the playoffs, Diggs has lined up in the slot on 51.9% of his routes and out wide on 48.1%. The Seahawks allow the 12th fewest YPRR (1.68) and the 7th lowest catch rate (67.1%) to slot alignment. They allow the fewest YPRR (1.49) and the 3rd lowest catch rate (58.2%) to wide alignment. The Seahawks blitz at the 8th lowest rate but are middle of the pack in pressure rate (38.3%). When Maye is not blitzed, Diggs averages 2.62 YPRR and 23% TPRR. Seattle plays two-high at the 6th highest rate (55.9%) and zone coverage at the 5th highest rate (77.1%). Diggs averages 2.55 YPRR and 25% TPRR against zone coverage. Against two-high, Diggs averages 2.24 YPRR and 26% TPRR. The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs and the Seahawks have arguably the best run defense in the league, but their pass defense is top notch as well. We’ll see if this Patriots offense can get going.

Suggested Pick:

Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

WR Kayshon Boutte

During the regular season, Boutte averaged 39.4 receiving yards per game, 1.56 YPRR and was targeted on 13% of his routes. Boutte leads the Patriots in receiving during the post season. He’s averaging 49 receiving yards per game, 1.93 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. He leads the team in 1st-read rate at 26.3%.  He’ll face a Seahawks defense that ranked 8th best in EPA/Pass and allowed the 10th fewest receiving yards per game in the regular season (193.9). In the playoffs, Boutte has lined up out wide on 93.4% of his routes. The Seahawks allow the fewest YPRR (1.49) and the 3rd lowest catch rate (58.2%) to wide alignment. The Seahawks blitz at the 8th lowest rate but are middle of the pack in pressure rate (38.3%). When Maye is not blitzed, Boutte averages 1.58 YPRR and 13% TPRR. Seattle plays two-high at the 6th highest rate (55.9%) and zone coverage at the 5th highest rate (77.1%). Boutte averages 1.79 YPRR and 14% TPRR against zone coverage. Against two-high, Boutte averages 1.29 YPRR and 10% TPRR. The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs and the Seahawks have arguably the best run defense in the league, but their pass defense is top notch as well. We’ll see if this Patriots offense can get going.

Suggested Pick:

Under 2.5 Receptions (-137)

TE Hunter Henry

During the regular season, Henry averaged 45.2 receiving yards per game, 1.73 YPRR, 19% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 18.5%. In the post season, Henry is averaging just 27 receiving yards per game, 1.09 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. He has a 1st-read rate of 17.5%. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that ranked 8th best in EPA/Pass and allowed the 10th fewest receiving yards per game in the regular season (193.9). In the playoffs, Henry has lined up in the slot on 50% of his routes and inline on 33.8%. The Seahawks allow the 12th fewest YPRR (1.68) and the 7th lowest catch rate (67.1%) to slot alignment. They allow the 14th fewest YPRR (1.76) and the 10th lowest catch rate (74.3%) to inline. The Seahawks blitz at the 8th lowest rate but are middle of the pack in pressure rate (38.3%). When Maye is not blitzed, Henry averages 1.66 YPRR and 17% TPRR. Seattle plays two-high at the 6th highest rate (55.9%) and zone coverage at the 5th highest rate (77.1%). Henry averages 1.96 YPRR and 18% TPRR against zone coverage. Against two-high, Henry averages 1.08 YPRR and 16% TPRR. The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs and the Seahawks have arguably the best run defense in the league, but their pass defense is top notch as well. We’ll see if this Patriots offense can get going.

Suggested Pick:

Over 3.5 Receptions (-123)

I think Seattle is the better football team but one thing I am confident in is both of these offenses will struggle at times. I think the under is the best play here

Best Bet: Under 45.5 -120
Lean: SEA ML/ALT Under 56.5 -145

First Touchdown

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +1600

Henry leads the Patriots in receiving touchdowns with 8. He’s also been targeted 22 times inside the 20 yard line, the next highest on the Patriots is Diggs with 13 targets. Not a great matchup but none of the Patriots have good matchups against this stout Seahawks defense. Henry scored in the first round of the playoffs, thinking he’s due for one here in the Super Bowl. He’s also been a 1st half touchdown guy all season, be first!

Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks) +410
We hit this last week and this price is, once again, too good to pass up. Without Charbonnet, Walker consumes almost all of the backfield carries. That should continue to be the case for the last game of the season and Walker entering free agency after this year. In the last two weeks, Walker has 4 total touchdowns. Yes, New England has a great run defense, but Walker can score in a variety of ways. He can plunge one in up close, break off an explosive run or catch a touchdown pass. In my opinion, this should be around +350.

Anytime Touchdown

Drake Maye (Patriots) +325

Maye rushed 10 times for 65 yards and a touchdown last week against the Broncos. In the first round of the playoffs, he rushed 10 times for 66 yards against the Chargers. Maye’s rushing yards line is set at 37.5, books expect him to use his legs in the biggest game of the season. Seahawks have been susceptible to running QBs as of late and I wouldn’t be surprised if Maye plays hero ball as a 4.5-point underdog, meaning more drop backs and times to scramble.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) -105
I probably don’t need to say a whole lot to convince you here. The volume is insane and there is no reason to think that’ll change here. He has touchdowns in each playoff game and 3 in his last 5 games. He owns almost 50% of the team’s air yardage and is top 3 in target rate this season. I’m not going to overthink this game against a team that is much easier to score against through the air.

Parlay #1 (Patriots) +2070

Drake Maye Under 263.5 Pass + Rushing Yards
Drake Maye Anytime Touchdown
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 3.5 Receptions

Parlay #2 (Seahawks) +271
Seattle Seahawks ML
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 6+ Receptions
Kenneth Walker III Under 72.5 Rushing Yards

Parlay #3 (Seahawks) +1078
Seattle Seahawks -4.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 125+ Receiving Yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba TD
Sam Darnold 200+ Passing Yards