QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff reminded everyone last week that he’s more than capable of pushing the ball downfield, torching the Bears for 334 yards and 5 touchdowns on just 28 attempts. The biggest shift was his average depth of target — jumping from a league-low 4.2 yards in Week 1 to 9.8 yards in Week 2 — showing a clear willingness to test defenses vertically. That aggressiveness should continue against a Ravens defense that ranks 19th in pressure rate (35.9%). Without steady pressure, Goff is given time to operate, and the results have been explosive. Baltimore has already shown its vulnerability to volume passing. Josh Allen ripped them for 394 yards on 46 attempts in Week 1, while even Joe Flacco managed 45 attempts despite inefficiency. Both outings highlight how opposing offenses are leaning on the pass against this defense. Add in the expectation of a high-scoring affair on Monday night, and it’s hard to envision Detroit holding back through the air. With Baltimore’s defense failing to generate disruption up front and this matchup primed for points, Goff should stay busy as the centerpiece of the Lions’ game plan.

Suggested Play:

'O' 34.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

 

RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery continues to serve as the backbone of Detroit’s power run game, and his role near the goal line is undeniable. Through two games, he has logged between 37 and 39% of the snaps but still averages 13.5 touches and 52 scrimmage yards per contest. The biggest indicator for his value comes inside the red zone: Montgomery has 6 carries in that area, including all 3 carries inside the five-yard line. Jahmyr Gibbs may dominate in passing situations and space plays, but when the Lions need to finish drives on the ground, Montgomery is the man they trust. Efficiency-wise, Montgomery has looked sharp. His 18% missed tackle rate shows he’s consistently making defenders pay, and he has a 4.5% explosive run rate despite facing stacked boxes early in the season. The Lions run game remains heavily zone-based, with Montgomery taking 73% of his carries in zone concepts, and this aligns perfectly with Baltimore’s biggest weakness. The Ravens have allowed the second-highest zone rushing success rate in the league, along with the fifth-highest rushing success rate overall. They’ve also given up the seventh-most yards after contact per attempt, meaning once Montgomery gets through the initial push, there’s room for him to finish runs with authority. The game script also favors him. In a primetime shootout expected to feature long drives and scoring chances, Detroit’s balance between Gibbs in the passing game and Montgomery at the goal line ensures Monty has multiple opportunities to punch one in. Against a Ravens defense that has already allowed backs like James Cook to hit both on the ground (44 yards and a TD) and through the air (58 yards), Montgomery is in the best position to exploit short-yardage scoring opportunities.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+145)

 

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs bounced back in Week 2 with a performance that showcased exactly why Detroit drafted him to be the lightning to David Montgomery’s thunder. He totaled 104 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against the Bears, flashing both his explosiveness and versatility. What stood out most was his involvement in the passing game — Gibbs led the backfield in snaps (57%), route share (52%), and target involvement. That kind of usage signals a clear intent from Detroit’s coaching staff: he isn’t just a complementary back, he’s a central piece in keeping defenses off balance. The matchup sets up perfectly for his skillset. Baltimore has been vulnerable to running backs in the passing game, allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game to the position (51.5). James Cook exploited them for 58 receiving yards in the opener, consistently getting into space off designed checkdowns and option routes. Gibbs profiles as an even bigger threat in that department, with his quickness creating mismatches against linebackers who struggle to contain him in the open field. Baltimore’s defense has also struggled to close gaps on first contact, giving up the third-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.80). This means Gibbs should find creases both on designed runs and quick passes, where his acceleration can turn modest touches into chunk plays. With Detroit expected to push the tempo in a high-scoring Monday night matchup, Gibbs should be leaned on as both a change-of-pace runner and a reliable outlet for Jared Goff when Baltimore’s pressure closes in.In a game script where both teams are likely trading scores, Gibbs’ involvement as a receiver could be the X-factor. Expect Detroit to manufacture opportunities for him on swings, screens, and angle routes to keep drives alive and punish Baltimore’s linebackers.

Suggested Play:

'O' 24.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown reminded everyone why he’s the heartbeat of Detroit’s passing attack with a dominant Week 2 showing. After a quiet opener, he erupted for 9 receptions, 115 yards, and 3 touchdowns on 11 targets. That marked the 12th time in his last 13 games where he’s recorded at least 5 catches and 53+ scrimmage yards. His consistency stems from both his role — working primarily from the slot — and his chemistry with Jared Goff, who leans on him as a reliable first-read option when drives need extending. This week’s matchup against Baltimore is particularly enticing. The Ravens have struggled to contain slot receivers, allowing the seventh-most receiving yards per game (92.5) and the fifth-most receptions (17) to players lined up inside. Khalil Shakir posted 6/64 against them in the opener, and that came with fewer opportunities than St. Brown typically sees. With Baltimore deploying Cover 3 and Cover 4 shells on a combined 62% of dropbacks, Goff is incentivized to hit his quick, underneath options — and no one benefits more than St. Brown. What makes him such a problem is how efficient he is at converting volume into production. His yards per route run against zone coverage remains strong, and his ability to sit in soft spots ensures he’s constantly open. Combine that with Goff’s accuracy when kept clean (and the Ravens rank only 19th in pressure rate), and you have a recipe for another high-volume outing. In what projects as a primetime shootout, St. Brown’s role as the chain-mover and drive-sustainer makes him a lock for steady production. Even if the touchdowns regress, the targets will be there, and Baltimore’s defensive metrics suggest the catches will follow.

Suggested Play:

'O' 6.5 Receptions (-120)

 

TE Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta hasn’t had his breakout box score yet in 2025, but the usage and matchup suggest he’s due. He ran 66% of Detroit’s routes in Week 2 and drew 14% of the targets, while still being an integral part of the Lions’ heavy play-action concepts. Baltimore has been consistently leaky against tight ends, allowing the second-most yards per game (92.5) and the second-most receptions (8.0). In fact, David Njoku (4/40) and Harold Fannin (5/48) combined for 9/88 last week. With defenses forced to devote extra coverage to St. Brown and Detroit’s backs, LaPorta is the logical red-zone mismatch. Look for Detroit to scheme him into space near the goal line.

 

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+245)

QB Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson has been sharp to start the season, completing 33 of 48 passes (69%) for 434 yards, 6 touchdowns, and adding 8 carries for 83 yards plus a rushing score through two weeks. He currently leads the league in passer rating (136.6), ranks fourth in yards per attempt (9.04), and sits first in deep throw rate (20.8%), highlighting both efficiency and aggressiveness. The Lions defense plays man coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, which is worth noting given Lamar’s historical splits—last season, all four of his interceptions came against man, where he posted a 102.1 passer rating with a 60.8% completion rate and a 12:4 TD-to-INT ratio, compared to a dominant 121.6 rating, 71.7% completion, and an 18:0 ratio against zone. Even so, opposing quarterbacks have found success against Detroit early this season, with Jordan Love (16/22, 188 yards, 2 TDs) and Caleb Williams (19/30, 207 yards, 2 TDs) both putting up solid numbers. With this game carrying real shootout potential, unders don’t make much sense for Lamar. Instead, the most intriguing angle is his rushing upside—mobile quarterbacks often thrive against heavy man coverage, and with Caleb Williams clearing his rushing line against this same defense last week, Lamar is in a strong spot to do the same.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 42.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

 

RB Derrick Henry
Detroit’s run defense has quietly been one of the more reliable units in the league to start the year, grading out 12th in run defense and surrendering only 81 rushing yards per game through two weeks. That efficiency will be put to the test this week against Derrick Henry, a back who can singlehandedly take over games if given room to operate. After a dominant Week 1 performance, Henry was stonewalled in Week 2 against a tough front, finishing with just 11 carries for 23 yards at a meager 2.1 yards per attempt while failing to find the end zone. It was a reminder that, as dominant as Henry can be, elite defenses that win up front can neutralize his impact by cutting off lanes before he builds momentum. Detroit has done a strong job in this area so far, ranking near the top of the league in limiting explosive runs—just a 3.8% explosive run rate allowed—and sitting in the middle of the pack in stuff rate, which still represents a meaningful test for opposing backs. Those metrics matter a great deal against Henry, who relies heavily on breaking chunk plays to buoy his stat lines. In fact, an eye-opening 74% of his yardage this season has come on explosive runs, while 62.5% of his production has come after contact, showing how much he leans on both his size and big-play ability to generate value. The Lions’ defensive approach will likely be simple but effective: contain Henry early, clog running lanes, and limit the long gains that allow him to snowball as the game goes on. If they can consistently slow him at the line of scrimmage and keep him in second-and-long or third-and-long situations, they’ll put the Titans in difficult down-and-distance scenarios and limit Henry’s effectiveness. This isn’t to say Henry can’t break a big play—he’s always one cut and one broken tackle away from ripping off a game-changing run—but with Detroit showing discipline in keeping explosive gains in check, the odds are stacked against him consistently moving the chains on volume alone. That’s why his rushing attempts prop of 19.5 feels inflated given both the matchup and how game script could unfold if the Lions’ offense gets rolling. All things considered, while Henry is talented enough to defy any defensive metric, the combination of Detroit’s discipline, their ability to minimize chunk plays, and his dependence on splash runs makes this a spot where fading his rushing volume feels like the most logical angle.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)

 

WR Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers has been nothing short of elite to open the 2025 season, emerging as one of the league’s most productive wideouts. He currently trails only Jaxon Smith-Njigba in team target share (39.6%), ranks seventh in team air yardage share (46.1%), and is averaging an impressive 15.57 yards per reception. What makes him even more dangerous is what he does after the catch, posting a stellar 8.14 yards after the catch per reception, showcasing his ability to turn short throws into explosive gains. The only thing missing from his resume so far is a touchdown, but the volume and efficiency suggest it’s only a matter of time before that box gets checked. Flowers hasn’t shown much of a split between man and zone coverage in his young career—slightly more effective against zone last season—but it’s hard to separate his numbers from Lamar Jackson’s tendency to struggle more against man. Still, the production speaks for itself: he opened the season with 143 yards in Week 1 and followed that with 75 in Week 2. Now, with Detroit on deck—a defense that just allowed Rome Odunze to post 7 catches for 128 yards and 2 scores—it sets up as another prime opportunity for Flowers to deliver a big performance.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Rashod Bateman
Rashod Bateman has gotten off to a slow and frustrating start this season, producing just 2 catches for 10 yards on 4 targets in Week 1 and following that up with another modest line of 2 catches for 15 yards on 4 targets in Week 2. Not only has he failed to score a touchdown, but he hasn’t even been involved in the red zone, with zero targets inside the 20 so far, while Lamar Jackson has clearly been leaning more heavily on DeAndre Hopkins. That lack of usage has hurt Bateman’s overall outlook, but there are some underlying signs that suggest this could be a bounce-back spot. Historically, Bateman tends to be more involved against man coverage, recording a 16.2% target share against man last season compared to 13.8% against zone. His role also shifts depending on coverage—he’s used more as a downfield threat against zone (17.4 aDOT and 19.18 yards per reception) while his work against man is shorter and volume-driven (10.9 aDOT and 13.38 yards per reception). Given that Detroit plays man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, the setup here favors Bateman seeing more looks than he has so far. With his betting lines continuing to drop after two quiet outings, he’s entering a range where there may finally be value. In what projects as a potential shootout, this feels like a good time to take a calculated shot on his receptions and hope the matchup sparks a rebound performance.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-125)

WR DeAndre Hopkins
DeAndre Hopkins has been a pleasant surprise to start the year, making the most of limited opportunities despite a reduced role in the offense. In Week 1 he turned just two targets into 35 yards and a touchdown, and in Week 2 he repeated the efficiency with two more targets for 64 yards and another score. At this stage of his career, Hopkins is primarily a possession receiver, but his elite hands remain a major asset for Lamar Jackson, giving him a reliable option when he does look Hopkins’ way. His average depth of target is an eye-popping 24.3 yards, boosted by a pair of long receptions, and while that number will almost certainly regress, it speaks to the fact that he’s still capable of creating splash plays downfield. Hopkins currently owns 27.6% of his team’s receiving yardage despite playing fewer than 30% of the snaps, though it’s notable that none of his work has come in the red zone yet. Betting markets have kept his lines low because of his limited playing time, but with the kind of efficiency he’s shown so far, asking him to clear 2 receptions in this matchup feels more than reasonable, even if regression is looming.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Receptions (-110)

TE Mark Andrews
Mark Andrews has been a complete non-factor to open the season, looking eerily similar to his slow start last year, and the lack of production is even more surprising given that Isaiah Likely has been sidelined. Despite logging a healthy 76% of the passing snaps, Andrews has done almost nothing with the opportunities he’s had—just one catch for 5 yards on a single target in Week 1 and one catch for 2 yards on three targets in Week 2. That’s a brutal stat line, especially considering the Ravens are averaging 40.5 points per game through two weeks. Now, with Likely set to return, Andrews’ role becomes even murkier, making it tough to project any kind of reliable volume. The one encouraging sign is that Lamar still looks his way in the red zone—Andrews leads the team with two red zone targets so far—but even that hasn’t translated into meaningful production yet. The matchup doesn’t do him many favors either, as Detroit was one of the stingiest teams against tight ends last season, holding the position to just 665 yards and 3 touchdowns on the year, and already limiting Tucker Kraft (2 for 16) and Cole Kmet (2 for 29) in 2025. Given his lack of involvement and the strength of the matchup, Andrews is best viewed as a fade this week unless you’re specifically chasing a touchdown prop.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-130)
Anytime Touchdown (+180)

Primetime games can always be weird and I always lean on the under if I don't love a total. Here is not one of those games. Both of these offenses coming in have looked really good meanwhile the defenses have not been. These teams did not face eachother last season and I like that comng in. The Ravens are a tough beat but man the Lions looked to flip a switch last week scoring 52 points. Lets look at the trends. 

 

Lions coming off 40+ points game 

2024
34-17 WIN (Road)
34-31 WIN (Home)
26-23 WIN (Road)
31-29 WIN (Road)
42-29 WIN (Home)
20-13 WIN (Road)

2023 
13-28 LOSS (Road)
26-14 WIN (Home)
34-20 WIN (Road)

Lions are 8-1 and 5-1 on the road when coming off a 40+ point game. Now the Ravens have scored 40 & 41 points in their first 2 games of the season and last year they started 4-0 having 35,31,34,35 points so it looks like these high scoring games are continuing early in the season. I LOVE THE OVER HERE. Its a tough ML pick game but im holding my breath and riding witht the Ravens @Home. 

Best Bet: Over 53.5 -115
Lean: Ravens ML -230
Score Prediction: Lions 30 Ravens 33

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Ravens) Zay Flowers +115
The only thing Flowers hasn't done this season is score. He owns the second highest team target share in the league and can break one at a moments notice. This is the week he gets in the endzone with some shootout potential here.

 

Best Bet: (Lions) David Montgomery +145

David Montgomery’s box scores don’t tell the full story of his importance in Detroit’s attack. Through two weeks, he’s logged a steady 37–39% snap share and averaged 13.5 touches and 52 yards per game. More importantly, he owns six red-zone carries, including all three attempts inside the five-yard line, which Gibbs hasn’t touched yet. His efficiency is solid, with a 4.5% explosive run rate and an 18% missed tackle rate, metrics that line up well against a Ravens defense that has allowed the fifth-highest rushing success rate, the seventh-most yards after contact per attempt, and the second-highest success rate against zone runs. Considering Montgomery runs out of zone concepts nearly 73% of the time, his role matches perfectly with where Baltimore has struggled.

 

First Touchdown Picks

Longshot: (Ravens) Mark Andrews +1500
Andrews has been completely underwhelming, but Lamar still eyes him in the redzone. Leads the team with a pair of redzone targets and is a big body that Lamar has shown a ton of chemistry with in the past.

Longshot: (Lions) Sam LaPorta +1700

Sam LaPorta has yet to find the end zone in 2025, but his usage points to a breakthrough. He ran 66% of Detroit’s routes in Week 2 and remains a trusted outlet for Jared Goff, particularly when defenses key in on Amon-Ra St. Brown and the running backs. Baltimore has been one of the worst teams at defending tight ends, allowing the second-most receptions (8.0) and yards (92.5) per game at the position. Last week, David Njoku and Harold Fannin combined for 9 catches and 88 yards against this defense. With his route share and size in the red zone, LaPorta is a prime candidate to open scoring for Detroit under the lights in a likely shootout.

Parlay #1: (Ravens) +100
Lamar Jackson 30+ Rushing Yards
Lamar Jackson 1+ Passing TD
Zay Flowers 50+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #2: (Ravens) +750
Mark Andrews TD
Mark Andrews Under 3.5 Receptions
BAL Ravens ML

 

Parlay #3: (Lions) +716

David Montgomery ATD

Sam LaPorta ATD

Jahmyr Gibbs 'O' 26.5 Receiving Yards

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua was a disaster in week 1, throwing 114 passing yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions. He was dead last in EPA/DB despite being pressured at the 2^nd lowest rate behind only Trevor Lawrence in the first week of the season. He had just a 60.9% completion rate after leading the league with a 72.9% completion rate last season. Tua turned it around in week 2 back at home against the Patriots, throwing 315 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception. That was against a Patriots defense that ranks 2^nd worst in EPA/Pass through 2 weeks. In week 3, he’ll face the Bills, a defense that is 14^th in EPA/Pass through 2 weeks, on the road in Buffalo. Tua is averaging 264.9 passing yards in his last 10 home games, compared to 226.5 passing yards in his last 10 away games. The Bills have pressured the QB at the highest rate in the NFL. Last season against pressure, Tua averaged 6.01 YPA and a 63.5% completion rate. When operating from a clean pocket, Tua averaged 7.45 YPA and a 75.1% completion rate. Through 2 games this season, the Bills have played two-high 56.6% of the time and zone at an 81.1% frequency. That’s pretty much in line with their season long rates last season of 55% and 73.3% respectively. In 2 H2H matchups last season, the Bills played two-high at a 73% frequency and zone at a 77% rate. Against two-high, Tua averaged 7.01 YPA and a 76.5% completion rate last season. That compared to 7.4 YPA and a 68.5% completion rate against single-high. Against zone, Tua averaged 7.93 YPA and a 78.9% completion rate. Those are massive splits compared to his 6.00 YPA and 56.3% completion rate last season against man. Those are decent splits but historically the Bills defense have had his number. In the last 7 H2H matchups against Sean McDermott, Tua has averaged 208 passing yards per game and 1.1 passing TDs. The Dolphins will likely be forced to pass as 12.5-point underdogs, but their implied total is only around 18-points at time of writing.

Suggested Pick:

Tua Tagovailoa Under 33.5 Yard Longest Pass (-112)

Tua Tagovailoa Under 238.5 Passing Yards (-114)

 

RB De’Von Achane

Through 2 games this season, Achane is averaging 42.5 rushing yards per game on 4.72 YPC. His efficiency is up from last season, where he averaged 4.47 YPC, but he’s only seeing 9 attempts per game due to negative game scripts. That should be the case again this week as the Dolphins are 12.5-point underdogs at time of writing. He’ll face a Bills team that ranks 9^th best in EPA/Rush allowed through 2 games. After the Bills allowed the most rushing yards in week 1 against Lamar and Derrick Henry (238 yards), they allowed just 100 against the Jets. The aspect of Achane’s game I am interested in is his receiving. He had 8 receptions for 92 receiving yards in week 2 against the Patriots. Achane has ran a route on 68.5% of drop backs to start this season, averaging 2.24 YPRR and has been targeted on 28% of his routes. Last season, he had a 54.8% route rate, averaged 1.64 YPRR and was targeted on 24% of his routes. He led all RBs in receiving yards last season and looks to be in the running again this year. In 2 matchups last season against the Bills, Achane had 15 receptions for 127 receiving yards and 2 TDs. The Bills allowed the most receiving yards and the highest target rate to RBs last season. RBs have been kept in check this season in the receiving game through 2 games, so we’ll see if the trend from last season continues as they play a few more games.

Suggested Pick:

Under 12.5 Rush Attempts (-104)

Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

50+ Receiving Yards (+160)

60+ Receiving Yards (+265)

Anytime TD (+110)

 

WR Tyreek Hill

Tyreek popped off for 6 receptions and 109 receiving yards in week 2 against the Patriots after a disaster from the entire Dolphins offense week 1. He caught a 47-yard pass, his longest reception since week 1 of last season. Hill is averaging 2.87 YPRR, has been targeted on 25% of his routes, and has a 1^st-read rate of 23.1% through 2 games. Tyreek has lined up out of the slot on 42.3% of his routes. That’s up from last year, where he ran just 34.3% of his routes from the slot. In week 3, he’ll face the Bills, a defense that is 14^th in EPA/Pass allowed this season. The Bills have pressured the QB at the highest rate in the NFL. Last season, in games Tua played, Tyreek averaged 1.53 YPRR, was targeted on 18% of his routes and commanded a 30.6% 1^st-read rate when his QB was under pressure. That compares to 2.26 YPRR, a 28% TPRR and a 23.2% 1^st-read rate when Tua operated from a clean pocket. In 2 H2H matchups last season, the Bills played two-high at a 73% frequency and zone at a 77% rate. Those have both been the Bills defensive scheme preferences in 2 games this season. Tyreek was 3^rd on the team in receiving last year against two-high with 278 receiving yards, averaging 1.43 YPRR. Against zone, Tyreek averaged 2.09 YPRR and 22% TPRR. Those are negative splits compared to man, where he averaged 2.36 YPRR and 37% TPRR. This is also an away game so we should downgrade this entire offense. Tua is averaging 264.9 passing yards in his last 10 home games, compared to 226.5 passing yards in his last 10 away games. As 12.5-point underdogs at time of writing, the Dolphins will likely be forced to pass, but time of possession may be scarce as was the issue in the first 2 weeks with the defense unable to get off the field.

Suggested Pick:

Under 22.5 Yard Longest Reception (-118)

Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Jaylen Waddle

After just 30 receiving yards in week 1, Waddle bounced back in week 2 against the Patriots, catching 5 of 6 targets for 68 receiving yards and a TD. Through 2 weeks, he’s averaging 1.88 YPRR, has been targeted on 21% of his routes and is first on the team in 1^st-read rate at 25.6%. He lined up out wide on 84.6% of his routes, up from 71.5% last season. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 14^th in EPA/Pass allowed through 2 games this season. The Bills have pressured the QB at the highest rate in the NFL. Last season, in games Tua played, Waddle averaged 1.46 YPRR, was targeted on 13% of his routes and commanded a 17.6% 1^st-read rate when his QB was under pressure. That compares to 2.28 YPRR, a 21% TPRR, and a 15.6% 1^st-read rate when Tua operated from a clean pocket. In 2 H2H matchups last season, the Bills played two-high at a 73% frequency and zone at a 77% rate. Those have both been the Bills defensive scheme preferences in 2 games this season. Waddle led the team in receiving last year against two-high with 342 receiving yards, averaging 2.04 YPRR. Against zone, Waddle averaged 2.02 YPRR and 17% TPRR. Those are negative splits compared to man, where he averaged 2.61 YPRR and 23% TPRR. This is also an away game so we should downgrade this entire offense. Tua is averaging 264.9 passing yards in his last 10 home games, compared to 226.5 passing yards in his last 10 away games. As 12.5-point underdogs at time of writing, the Dolphins will likely be forced to pass, but time of possession may be scarce as was the issue in the first 2 weeks with the defense unable to get off the field. I lean Waddle over Tyreek due to his better production against two-high and outpacing Hill in 1^st-read rate in B2B games to start the season. He does carry a questionable tag so be weary of that leading up to the game.

Suggested Pick:

Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Tanner Conner

Through 2 games to start the season, Tanner Conner has led the tight ends in route rate at 52.1%. He’s been targeted 4 times, catching 2 of them for 20 receiving yards. Jonnu Smith was one of Tua’s favorite targets last season. That was a big part of this offense last season that hasn’t been replaced. The Dolphins also signed Darren Waller out of retirement, but he has yet to play and has been ruled out yet again for Thursday night’s game. I’d avoid any bets on Tanner Conner.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

QB Josh Allen

Through 2 weeks, Allen is averaging 271 passing yards per game, a 66.2% completion rate, 7.63 YPA and a 98.4 QB rating. On the ground, he’s averaging 44.5 rushing yards and has rushed for 2 TDs. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Pass allowed through the first 2 games of the season. The Bills have the highest implied total of week 3 (31-points), but as 12.5-point favorites, the possibility of a blowout is a heightened risk. The Dolphins have the 4^th lowest pressure rate this season (22.2%) despite blitzing at a top 4 frequency (39.7%). Last season, Josh averaged 7.99 YPA and a 71.4% completion rate when operating from a clean pocket, compared to 6.98 YPA and a 41.3% completion rate under pressure. The Dolphins ran similar schemes in both matchups last season. Combining the 2 H2H games, the Dolphins ran man coverage at a 29.5% frequency and single-high at a 60.7% rate. Last season against single-high, Allen averaged 7.95 YPA, a 62.5% completion rate and a QB rating of 98.6. Mixed splits compared to two-high, where he averaged 7.37 YPA, a 65.2% completion rate and a 105.9 QB rating. Against zone, Allen averaged 8.12 YPA, a 68.5% completion rate and a 93.3 QB rating. Against man, he averaged 7.43 YPA, a 56% completion rate and a 111.4 QB rating. One other interesting aspect was that Allen had a combined 4 rush attempts for 9 rushing yards in their H2H matchups in 2024. The Dolphins were 2^nd in QB rush yards allowed and 1^st in QB rush TDs allowed. Despite the risk of blowout, the high implied team total and the worst ranked pass defense based on EPA allowed makes me inclined to take Allen’s passing prop overs.

Suggested Pick:

Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-135)

3+ Passing TDs (+240)

Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-120)

250+ Passing Yards (+140)

275+ Passing Yards (+265)

 

RB James Cook

Through 2 games this season, Cook has averaged 88 rushing yards per game on 5.18 YPC and is tied for the lead in rushing TDs with 3. He was a candidate for TD regression after 16 rushing TDs last season, but he’s proving that not to be a fluke through 2 games. His involvement in the passing game remains inconsistent as he had 58 yards in the 1^st game against Baltimore (51 on 1 massive screen play), but just 3 against the Jets. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that has allowed 139 rushing yards per game (8^th most) on 4.03 YPC (13^th least) and is ranked 11^th worst in EPA/Rush this season. Last season, they allowed 103.7 rushing yards per game (9^th least) on 4.35 YPC (12^th least). Last season, 80 of Cook’s attempts came with Josh Allen in shotgun, where he averaged 5.11 YPC. That is compared to 119 of his attempts with Josh under-center, where he averaged 4.43 YPC. The Dolphins allowed the 6^th fewest YPC on shotgun runs last season (4.53), but the 4^th most to runs under-center (4.22). On a per rush basis, this feels like an average matchup, but with the Bills having a 31-point implied total and 12.5-point favorites, Cook may see a lot of rush attempts if they get out to an early lead. His rushing attempts line feels priced correctly at 15.5 as Vegas is projected this to be a blow out. He averaged just 13.7 attempts last season. I lean over on rush yards due to volume.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime TD (-165)

Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR Khalil Shakir

In week 1, Shakir ran a route on 82.7% of drop backs, was targeted 8 times, catching 6 for 64 receiving yards. In week 2, he struggled with just 1 reception for 12 yards. Most of the Bills’ production against the Jets came on the ground as Allen threw for just 148 passing yards. Shakir now has just 56 receiving yards in his last 3 matchups against the Jets. Shakir ran just a 54.8% route rate, which was the same as Keon Coleman. This was a trend last season as well, as he had a 43.3% route rate in week 6 and a 62.1% route rate in week 17. That is compared to a season long 70.8% route rate last season. I love this as a bounce back spot for Shakir, who is over his 40.5 receiving line in 3 straight matchups against the Dolphins. If you exclude the 3 Jets matchups, Shakir surpassed this line in 14 of his last 17 games. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Pass allowed through the first 2 games of the season. The Bills have the highest implied total of week 3 (31-points), but as 12.5-point favorites, the possibility of a blowout is a heightened risk. The Dolphins have the 4^th lowest pressure rate this season (22.2%) despite blitzing at a top 4 frequency (39.7%). Shakir averaged 2.8 YPRR and was targeted on 32% of his routes last season when Allen operated from a clean pocket. The Dolphins ran similar schemes in both matchups last season. Combining the 2 H2H games, the Dolphins ran man coverage at a 29.5% frequency and single-high at a 60.7% rate. Shakir averaged 2.68 YPRR and was targeted on 31% of his routes against zone last season, compared to 1.67 YPRR and 20% TPRR against man. Against single-high, Shakir averaged 2.21 YPRR and a 27% TPRR, compared to 2.38 YPRR and a 26% TPRR against two-high.

Suggested Pick:

Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

50+ Receiving Yards (+142)

5+ Receptions (+130)

6+ Receptions (+259)

 

WR Keon Coleman

Coleman excelled in his first game of his second season, catching 8 of 11 targets for 112 yards and a TD. He averaged 2.60 YPRR, was targeted on 26% of his routes, and far surpassed all other Bills’ weapons with a 34.6% 1^st-read rate. Week 2 was a more difficult test against the Jets elite secondary. He caught 3 of 3 targets for 26 yards as the Bills leaned on the run. He saw just a 16.7% 1^st-read rate week 2 as the limited production in the air was spread out between the Bills weapons. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Pass allowed through the first 2 games of the season. The Bills have the highest implied total of week 3 (31-points), but as 12.5-point favorites, the possibility of a blowout is a heightened risk. The Dolphins ran similar schemes in both matchups last season. Combining the 2 H2H games, the Dolphins ran man coverage at just a 29.5% frequency and single-high at a 60.7% rate. Coleman averaged 3.68 YPRR and was targeted on 32% of his routes against man week 1. Last season, Keon averaged 2.08 YPRR, 27% TPRR and a 25.2% 1^st-read rate vs man. That is compared to 1.82 YPRR, 14% TPRR and a 15.5% 1^st-read rate vs zone. Last season, Coleman averaged 2.26 YPRR and 22% TPRR against single-high. That compares to 0.78 YPRR and 13% TPRR against two-high, massive splits. We’ll see if the Dolphins play a similar schematic pass defense in this matchup. Week 1 was impressive by Keon and many were calling for a 2^nd year breakout. However, I’m not fully bought in just yet and think he’s more of a boom or bust weapon that is scheme dependent. We will see.

Suggested Pick:

Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

 

WR Josh Palmer

Palmer is averaging 54 receiving yards per game on 1.96 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He’s third on the Bills in route rate at 66.3%, primarily lining up out wide 76.4% of the time. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Pass allowed through the first 2 games of the season. The Bills have the highest implied total of week 3 (31-points), but as 12.5-point favorites, the possibility of a blowout is a heightened risk. The Dolphins ran similar schemes in both matchups last season. Combining the 2 H2H games, the Dolphins ran man coverage at just a 29.5% frequency and single-high at a 60.7% rate. As a member of the Chargers last season, Palmer averaged 1.65 YPRR and 14% TPRR against zone. That compares to 1.54 YPRR and 22% TPRR against man. Against single-high, Palmer averaged 1.53 YPRR and 17% TPRR. Against two-high, he averaged 1.64 YPRR and 16% TPRR. Not drastic changes in splits here for Palmer so wouldn’t factor too much into that. At a 33.5 yard receiving line, I’m inclined to take Palmer’s over, a line he’s surpassed in both games with Josh Allen.

Suggested Pick:

Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid is averaging 42.5 receiving yards per game on 1.81 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. He’s had a 55.8% and 58.1% route rate in the 1^st 2 weeks. This is in line with his 57.7% rate last season. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Pass allowed through the first 2 games of the season. The Bills have the highest implied total of week 3 (31-points), but as 12.5-point favorites, the possibility of a blowout is a heightened risk. The Dolphins ran similar schemes in both matchups last season. Combining the 2 H2H games, the Dolphins ran man coverage at just a 29.5% frequency and single-high at a 60.7% rate. Against single-high last season, Kincaid averaged 1.38 YPRR and was targeted on 26% of his routes. That compares to 2.31 YPRR and 30% TPRR against two-high, negative splits. In terms of man vs zone splits, Kincaid averaged 1.81 YPRR and 26% TPRR against zone last season. That compares to 1.67 YPRR and 31% TPRR against man. Kincaid has 1 TD this season and has been targeted in the redzone twice. With the Bills implied to score 31 points, I’m targeting Kincaid to score a TD.

Suggested Pick

Anytime Touchdown (+260)

The Dolphins are 1-6 against Buffalo under Mike McDaniel. They are also 0-3 losing by an average of 15.3 points on Thursday Night Football. The Dolphins rank dead last in defensive EPA. Last season’s MVP Josh Allen and the Bills should be able to dominate in all aspects of this game. The Dolphins offense did come back to life last week at home, but they were playing a struggling Patriots defense. They now go on the road and play against a Bills defense that looked much better in week 2, allowing just 10 points to the Jets. I know this is a hefty spread, but all factors point to a massive blowout, I’m not overthinking this one. In terms of total points, I lean under as primetime games (especially Thursdays) have been ugly the last few seasons and I could see Buffalo just holding the ball for long possessions to drain the clock later in the game.

Best Bet: Bills -12.5
Lean: Under 49.5
Score Prediction: Bills 31 Dolphins 17

Anytime Touchdown Picks

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) +110

I like Achane’s upside as a pass catcher in this game and he’s scored 6 TDs in his last 4 head-to-head matchups against the Bills. Last season, the Bills allowed the most receiving yards and the highest target share to the position. They let up 10 rushing TDs and 6 receiving TDs to RBs. Love Achane to get the short dump offs in what should be a pass first game script. His explosive ability after the catch gives him a great chance to find the endzone.

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) +260

In 2 games to start the 2025 season, Kincaid is tied for the team lead in endzone targets (2) and receiving TDs (1). The Dolphins worst ranked EPA/Pass to start the season makes me want to target the passing game. Allen also did not have much of a propensity to run the ball against the Dolphins in his 2 matchups last season. He only had 4 total rush attempts in those games and no rushing TDs. I’ll take my chances on Kincaid, who’s the biggest target for Josh Allen.

 

First Touchdown Picks

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) +900

Same analysis as above, I want to target a player that is explosive and has multiple ways of scoring. I’m not high on the run game for the Dolphins, nor the deep passing game against the Bills two-high defensive preference. If any Dolphin is to score first, I like Achane’s chances.

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) +1500

Same analysis as above. Kincaid also has the tendency to be most productive in the 1^st quarter. Dating back to 2023, he averages 1.2 receptions and 12.7 receiving yards in the 1^st, more than any other quarter. I love Josh to find him early as the Dolphins may take Josh’s legs away. Josh may also rely more on his arm and not on his legs on a short week, especially with a 12.5-point spread where he doesn’t need to risk his body.

 

Parlay #1: (+490)

Josh Allen 2+ Passing Touchdowns

Khalil Shakir 5+ Receptions

Josh Palmer 30+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2: (+1400)

Josh Allen 250+ Passing Yards

Josh Allen 3+ Passing Touchdowns

Khalil Shakir 6+ Receptions

QB Jake Browning

Jake Browning will take over as the starter for Joe Burrow, who’s out 3 months with a turf toe injury. Browning threw 241 passing yards with a 65.6% completion rate and threw 2 TDs and 3 interceptions. He had a 7-game starting stint last time Burrow was hurt in 2023. He averaged 266.9 passing yards per game, had a 71.5% completion rate and averaged 8.19 YPA. He also added 127 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs. His average depth of target that season was just 6.4 yards, which was 3^rd lowest amongst QBs with 100+ dropbacks. He’ll face a tough challenge in his first start against a Brian Flores led defense that ranks 1^st in EPA/Pass allowed through 2 weeks. They ranked 7^th best last season. The Vikings have a 32.8% blitz rate this season after ranking 1^st with a 40.6% rate in 2024. In Browning’s last stint as starter, he averaged 7.75 YPA and a 62.5% completion rate against the blitz.  The Vikings defense has the highest rate of two-high (70.1%) which continues to be a theme for Brian Flores as they ranked number 1 in frequency last season as well. In 2023, Browning averaged 7.73 YPA and a 68.9% completion rate against two-high. With the weapons the Bengals have, Browning is more than capable of lighting it up on the stat sheet, but this will be a tough test against a stout Vikings defense.

Suggested Pick:

Under 236.5 Passing Yards (-111)

 

RB Chase Brown

Chase Brown has struggled on the ground through 2 games, averaging 45 yards per game on a highly inefficient 2.43 YPC. However, he has been an absolute bell cow receiving 96% of RB opportunity share. He’ll face a Vikings defense that ranks 5^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed through 2 games after being the stingiest run defense in the league last year. I’m not sure how much I’m buying into last week’s performance as the Falcons may have the best running attack in the league this year with Bijan Robinson behind that elite offensive line. In week 1, they allowed just 53 rushing yards on 3.1 YPC. I’m fading Brown in the running game as a 3-point underdog. However, I am bullish on Brown in the receiving game with the transition to Browning. He caught 2 of Browning’s passes for 18 yards when he took over last week. In 2023 during Browning’s starting stint, the Bengals had the 2^nd most receiving yards to the backfield (43 per game) and the 8^th highest backfield target rate (19.2%). Last season, Brown averaged 1.15 YPRR and 20% TPRR overall. He’ll face a Vikings defense that with Brian Flores as DC, blitzes at the highest rate and plays two-high at the highest rate. Brown averaged 1.23 YPRR and 24% TPRR against two-high last season. He averaged 1.33 YPRR and a 20% TPRR against the blitz. Both positive splits and I think this is a great spot to target Brown in the receiving game. He’s hit his 13.5 receiving yard line in 9 of 10 games with a 65%+ snap share.

Suggested Pick:

Under 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

20+ Receiving Yards (+160)

30+ Receiving Yards (+350)

 

WR Ja’Marr Chase

Through 2 games this season, Ja’Marr is averaging 95.5 receiving yards per game, 2.62 YPRR and has been targeted on 29% of his routes. He has an elite 1^st-read rate of 42.6%. Last season, Chase averaged 2.45 YPRR, a 25% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 34.5%. Ja’Marr and the Bengals passing game will face a tough challenge against the Vikings, who rank number 1 in EPA/Pass allowed through 2 weeks. The Vikings have played the highest rate of two-high safeties (70.1%) this season, which was the same trend as last season with Brian Flores. Ja’Marr saw negative splits against two-high last season, averaging 2.04 YPRR and 22% TPRR. The same trend held true back in 2023 with Browning at QB. The other dynamic of Brian Flores led defenses is their propensity to blitz. This season, they have a 32.8% blitz rate. Last season, they led the league at a 40.6% rate. Last season, Chase saw massive positive splits against the blitz. He averaged 3.58 YPRR and 35% TPRR. With Browning back in 2023, Chase led the team with 2.78 YPRR and a 22% TPRR against the blitz, but not as much of a drastic split. Even with Browning at QB, I find it hard not to back the best WR in the game last season.

Suggested Pick:

Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

 

WR Tee Higgins

Through 2 games this season, Tee Higgins is averaging 44.5 receiving yards per game, 1.29 YPRR and has been targeted on only 17% of his routes. He is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.4%. Last season, Higgins averaged 75.9 receiving yards per game, 2.12 YPRR and was targeted on 24% of his routes. His 1^st-read rate was 29.8%. Higgins and the Bengals passing game will face a tough challenge against the Vikings, who rank number 1 in EPA/Pass allowed through 2 weeks. The Vikings have played the highest rate of two-high safeties (70.1%) this season, which was the same trend as last season with Brian Flores. Higgins was more productive off less targets against two-high last season, averaging 2.27 YPRR and 23% TPRR. Back in 2023 with Browning, Higgins had massive positive splits averaging 3.09 YPRR. The other dynamic of Brian Flores led defenses is their propensity to blitz. This season, they have a 32.8% blitz rate. Last season, they led the league at a 40.6% rate. Last season, Tee saw sharp negative splits against the blitz, averaging 1.77 YPRR and 22% TPRR. Chase was the preferred target when the QB was under pressure. With Browning back in 2023, his splits were better, averaging 2.33 YPRR and 22% TPRR.  

Suggested Pick:

Under 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115)

 

TE Mike Gesicki/Noah Fant/Drew Sample

Week 1 was a TE carousel for the Bengals, as Fant, Gesicki and Sample ran 12, 9 and 10 routes respectively. None of them had a route participation rate over 45%. In week 2, Gesicki led the way with a 62.5% route participation rate. Fant and Sample were down to 20.8% and 14.6% respectively. Despite the increased role, Gesicki caught just 3 of 4 targets for 18 yards. All his production came in the 4^th quarter. The snap share seems to depend on game flow. In a passing game script, Gesicki is likely to see the most routes. I don’t have enough confidence to bet either side for Gesicki with such low expected volume.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

QB Carson Wentz

Heading into Week 2, this matchup was primed to be JJ McCarthy vs. Joe Burrow. But now heading into Week 3, we've got Carson Wentz against Jake Browning. According to Adam Schefter, JJ McCarthy is expected to miss two to four weeks due to a high ankle sprain. This paves the way for Wentz to get his first start not in Week 18 since 2022. We saw Wentz appear in Week 18 for the Chiefs last season, but he faced off against a Denver Broncos defence that needed the win to get into the postseason. He went 10/17 for 98 passing yards. While there's really not a big enough sample size to dive into Wentz and how he performs with just two starts over the last two seasons, let's still remember that this is the Cincinnati Bengals' defence. Through two weeks, they have allowed the fourth most pass completions (27.5), the third most pass attempts (43.5) and the fifth most passing yards (280.5). We aren't going to recommend a bet on a guy with next to no data to back us up, but Wentz might not have that bad of a day when you consider how Kevin O'Connell brought out the best in Sam Darnold last season. Could Wentz be O'Connell's next big successful reclamation project?

Suggested pick:

Pass

 

RB Jordan Mason

Aaron Jones heads to the IR, which opens the door for Mason to show he can be the running back of the future in Minnesota. Mason already started to take over in the running game, but now he'll have an opportunity to be a three-down back. Now, his receiving game could use some work, but the only other player on the roster is Zavier Scott – who?? This week, Mason faces off against the Bengals' defence, who sit in the middle of the league in terms of yards against (83) per game. However, their 22.5 rush attempts allowed per game have them allowing the ninth fewest yards per carry (3.69) this season. Mason has an admirable 4.08 yards per carry on the year, and with a Carson Wentz-led team, Mason will undoubtedly be a focal point of the offence.

Suggested Pick:

Jordan Mason over rushing yards max at 75.5

 

WR Justin Jefferson

At what point do we feel bad for Jefferson? Like, McCarthy had all the hype, did not live up to it, and now he gets Wentz? Thinking in a glass-half-full approach, at least Wentz has proven he can be a productive NFL QB, right? And I mean, hey, Kevin O'Connell turned recclamation project in Darnold into a starting NFL QB. So could he do the same with Wentz and save Jefferson this season? That's the angle we're going to take – especially against the Bengals. Cincinnati has been a bad defence for pretty much the entire Burrow era. That hasn't stopped this season, as they allow the seventh-most receptions (14.5) and the 11th-most receiving yards (166.5). Jefferson lines up on the outside 86% of the time. To outside WRs, the Bengals allow middle of the pack in terms of catch rate, but the third-fewest yards per reception to the position. But, with RB receiving option in Jones, as well as Hockenson's struggles this season, I'm going to go contrarion against the numbers and trust that Wentz can push the ball downfield a little more against a brutal Bengals defence.

Suggested pick:

Justin Jefferson o73.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Adam Thielen

Thielen finally arrived in Minnesota. After not being able to corral his one target in Week 1, he managed to catch two of his three targets for 26 receiving yards. But with a new QB comes a new opportunity. As we touched on before, Wentz is starting. Now I feel the low area of field receivers is going to be more involved. And with a low 2.5 receptions line, Thielen is going to be more involved. But don't just listen to me. Listen to the Vikings, who increased Thielen's snap percentage from 57.1% in Week 1 to 80.4% in Week 2. The Bengals have faced the third-most slot routes this season, and have allowed a reception on 63% of those catches. So, to do the math of Thielen's line and the Bengals' catch rate, Thielen would need just 4.76 targets to hit this over? That's good enough for me!

Suggested pick:

Adam Thielen o2.5 Receptions (-105)

 

TE TJ Hockenson

Am I alone in saying Hockenson has been the most disappointing TE this season? He's caught four of his seven targets, but for just 27 receiving yards. Yikes. This week, Hockenson gets the Bengals, who have been bad against TEs dating back to last season. This year, the Bengals allowed the fourth most targets (8), the sixth most receptions (6.5), and the 10th most receiving yards. Honestly, Hockenson isn't that bad, and he should have a better week, especially when Wentz will be able to push the ball downfield more than McCarthy could. I'm not afraid to go back, and neither should you.

Suggested pick:

TJ Hockenson o3.5 Receptions (-135)

Jake Bowning proved himself in 2023 when Burrow went out for a little bit averaging 23.4 PPG. On the road though they socred just 17,11,34 points. In these games the Bengals allowed 25,34,31 points. This is a spot where I trust the Vikings defense over the Bengals and Carson Wentz is a vet and could do better than some might expect. This isn't the first time he has been in this situation. Give me the Vikings team total over 20.5 and the Vikings to cover the short spread.

Best Bet: Vikings TT 'O' 20.5 -142
Lean: Vikings -2.5 -134
Score Prediction: Bengals 20 Vikings 27 

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Jordan Mason (Vikings) -110

The bookmaker really killed TD props, eh? Regardless, Mason is the full-on bell-cow RB for this offence – one that has not been able to pound one in all season. Did somebody say 'due '?

Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) +155

Ja’Marr had his first TD of the season last week and he was absolutely peppered with targets, 16 of them! He’ll face a Brian Flores led defense that is notorious for bringing the blitz. Ja’Marr has massive positive splits against the blitz, especially in terms of target rate and 1^st-read rate. Browning will look for him often!

 

First Touchdown Picks

Justin Jefferson (Vikings) +600

Jefferson is one of the league's best WRs, there's no question about it. However, he has failed to get going this season, which, in turn, is likely due to QB play. Now that Wentz has a career to play for, known as a guy who can push the ball down the field, we're kind of high on Jefferson this week to be that player who steps up for his team.

Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) +750

Same analysis as anytime TD. Ja’Marr has scored a first quarter touchdown in 25% of his last 20 games, that’s incredible! If you change that to the first half, he’s scored in 40%. I expect Browning to key in on arguably the best WR in the league when the Vikings inevitably bring pressure.

Parlay #1: (+320)

Jordan Mason TD

Justin Jefferson 70+ Receiving Yards

TJ Hockenson 3+ Receptions

 

Parlay #2: (+750)

Chase Brown Under 67.5 Rushing Yards

Chase Brown 20+ Receiving Yards

Tee Higgins Under 21.5 Yards Longest Reception

QB Aaron Rodgers

After throwing for 244 passing yards, 8.13 YPA and 4 TDs in week 1 against the Jets, Rodgers fell back to earth. In week 2 against the Seahawks, Rodgers threw 203 passing yards, 6.15 YPA, 1 TD and 2 interceptions. In week 3, he’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 2^nd worst in EPA/Pass allowed through 2 games. Geno threw for 362 yards and Tua threw for 315 yards. The Patriots have allowed a league high 10.26 YPA, 338.5 passing YPG, and the 4^th highest completion rate over expected. The Patriots top 3 coverages to start the season are cover 3 (26.3%), cover 2 (22.4%) and Cover 1 (21.1%). This season, against these 3 coverages, Rodgers is averaging 6.29 YPA, a 63.2% completion rate and a 107.2 QB rating. Last season, he averaged 7.18 YPA, 67% completion rate and an 89.3 QB rating against these 3 coverages. That compared to 5.83 YPA, a completion rate of 56.4% and a QB rating of 92.7 against all other coverages. Nothing else stood out from a schematic point of view as this defense has been balanced in their first 2 games. One caveat to this matchup is that the Patriots star CB, Christian Gonzalez, who’s been sidelined since the end of July, returned to practice this week. If he plays to his ability, this entire defense sees an upgrade. It’s worth checking the injury report as the week progresses.

Suggested Pick:

Over 20.5 Completions (-130)

Over 222.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115)

 

RB Jaylen Warren

Warren carried the ball 11 times for 37 yards in week 1 against the Jets, averaging 3.36 YPC. He also caught 2 receptions for 22 yards and a receiving TD. Warren’s snap share rose from 48.1% in week 1 to 57.6% in week 2. Against the Seahawks, Warren carried the ball 14 times for 48 yards, averaging 3.43 YPC. He also caught 4 receptions for 86 receiving yards. He’ll face a Patriots defense that is 3^rd best in EPA/Rush through 2 weeks. Their 58.5 rushing yards allowed per game is also 3^rd best. I’m not interested in targeting Warren on the ground, but I do have interest in him in the receiving game. Achane just had 8 receptions for 92 receiving yards in this matchup last week. Watching the film, the Patriots left the RB wide open a ton. Warren isn’t to the level Achane is, but he is above average as a pass catcher. Also, here’s a quote from Aaron Rodgers regarding Jaylen Warren: “We might have to keep giving him more opportunities in the pass game, because every time he touches it, something good happens.” Warren currently leads the league in receiving yards after contact over expected (+59). The Jets had the 4^th most receiving yards coming from the backfield last season (37.5 per game). Rodgers loves to throw to his RBs.

Suggested Pick:

Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Over 2.5 Receptions (-141)

25+ Receiving Yards (+132)

 

WR DK Metcalf

DK caught 4 of 7 targets for 83 receiving yards in his first game with the Steelers. He averaged 3.07 YPRR and was targeted on 26% of his routes. In game 2, DK caught 3 of 6 targets for just 20 receiving yards and a TD. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 24.4%, but his 4.9 aDOT is a bit concerning. For reference, he had a 14.3 aDOT with the Seahawks last season. He has yet to see a target 20+ yards downfield. In week 3, he’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 2^nd worst in EPA/Pass allowed through 2 games. The Patriots have allowed a league high 10.26 YPA, 338.5 passing YPG, and the 4^th highest completion rate over expected. The one caveat to all this is that Christian Gonzalez returned to practice this week, the Patriots top CB. If he ends up playing at close to 100%, this entire defense sees an upgrade and DK will see a downgrade. DK has lined up out wide on 83.9% of his routes. The Patriots have allowed 172.5 receiving yards per game to wide alignment, 2^nd most in the NFL. I’d check back in on the status of Gonzalez, but this could be a breakout week for DK.

Suggested Pick:

Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110) *If Gonzalez ruled out*

Anytime TD (+155)

 

WR Calvin Austin

Calvin Austin was the clear WR2 week 1, running a route on 73.5% of dropbacks. He caught 4 of 6 targets for 70 receiving yards and a TD. He averaged 2.80 YPRR and was targeted on 24% of his routes. In week 2 against the Seahawks, he caught 1 of 3 targets for just 22 yards. Through 2 weeks, he is tied for 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 17.8%. In week 3, he’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 2^nd worst in EPA/Pass allowed through 2 games. The Patriots have allowed a league high 10.26 YPA, 338.5 passing YPG, and the 4^th highest completion rate over expected. The one caveat to all this is that Christian Gonzalez returned to practice this week, the Patriots top CB. If he ends up playing at close to 100%, this entire defense sees an upgrade and Austin will indirectly see a downgrade. He has lined up in the slot on 45.8% of his routes. The Patriots have allowed the 10^th most receiving yards per game to the slot (84) compared to the 2^nd most to wide alignment (172.5).

Suggested Pick:

Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110) *If Gonzalez ruled out*

 

TE Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith

Through 2 weeks, Freiermuth has a 50.7% route rate, while Jonnu has a 52.1% route rate. Production wise, Freiermuth is averaging 29.5 receiving yards per game, 1.59 YPRR, 19% TPRR and a 11.1% 1^st-read rate. Jonnu Smith is averaging 21 receiving yards per game, 1.11 YPRR, 26% TPRR and a 17.8% 1^st-read rate. Pat’s aDOT is 8, compared to Jonnu’s 0.2 yards. Jonnu seems to have a specific role, as a screen guy with YAC opportunity. Brock Bowers torched the Patriots for 103 yards in week 1. Week 2 was against a Dolphins team that doesn’t have a true receiving tight end. Tanner Conner was held catchless. Hard to judge too much matchup wise, but the Patriots do rank 2^nd worst in EPA/Pass allowed through 2 games. Again, the status of Christian Gonzalez will need to be monitored as he’ll help this entire pass defense. Both of these guys feel like a dart throw as I’m not sure who will produce week to week.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

QB Drake Maye

Drake Maye is averaging 258.5 passing yards, a 71% completion rate, 7.49 YPA and has thrown 3 TDs. On the ground, he’s averaging 21 rushing YPG and has 1 TD on the season. In week 1, the Patriots ran motion on just 24.5% of Maye’s dropbacks. They increased their motion rate to 46.6% in week 2. This was an important development as Maye is averaging 9.43 YPA, a 73.9% completion rate and a 117.5 QB rating when they run motion, compared to 6.52 YPA, a 69.6% completion rate and a 92.7 QB rating without motion. He’ll face a Steelers defense that is ranked 5^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed. This defense has some major players that have yet to practice this week due to injury, including Joey Porter Jr, DeShon Elliott and Alex Highsmith. The Steelers have played single-high at the 9^th highest rate this season (60%) and were number 1 in frequency last season (66.4%). Last season, Maye averaged 6.91 YPA, a 65.5% completion rate and an 87.2 QB rating against single-high. Those were negative splits compared to two-high, where he averaged 7.78 YPA, a 71.7% completion rate and a 102.7 QB rating. Coming into Maye’s second season, expectations were high for his rushing ability under the new coaching staff. Week 1 was uninspiring as he had 4 attempts for 11 yards. But in week 2, Maye rushed 10 times for 31 yards and a TD. We expected OC Josh McDaniels to draw up some designed runs, but through 2 weeks, only 6 of Mayes rushing yards have been designed. Not encouraging enough, I prefer his passing yards.

Suggested Pick:

Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-111)

250+ Passing Yards (+178)

 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Through 2 games, Rhamondre has 18 rush attempts for 69 yards, averaging 3.83 YPC. In the receiving game, Rhamondre has caught 7 of 8 targets for 100 yards. 55 of those yards came from a massive play that was drawn up for Henderson in practice, but TreVeyon was benched due to poor pass blocking snaps and penalties. He has a 43.4% route rate, outpacing TreVeyon’s 31.3% route rate. Rhamondre has a commanding 65.9% snap rate through 2 weeks. We expect this to decline as the season goes on and rookie RB Henderson gets acclimated to the pro game, but he may have an extended leash as TreVeyon has struggled in pass protection. He’ll face a Steelers defense that ranks 20^th in EPA/Rush through 2 weeks. Breece Hall ran for 107 yards week 1 and Kenneth Walker ran for 105 yards week 2 against this Steelers defense that has a few injuries to their front seven. They have been especially weak against man/gap concepts, allowed the most YPC (7.67) on 12 attempts. 61.1% of Rhamondre’s attempts have been in man/gap concept, where he’s averaging 4.36 YPC. In terms of the receiving matchup, Kenneth Walker caught 1 reception for 13 yards, while Breece caught 2 receptions for 38 yards. Rhamondre’s 88 yard receiving performance is definitely an outlier, but if Henderson can’t earn the trust of the coaching staff, Rhamondre may take advantage in that department.

Suggested Pick:

Over 56.5 Rush+Receiving Yards (-110)

 

RB Treveyon Henderson

Through 2 games, Henderson has rushed 8 times for 37 yards, averaging 4.63 YPC. He’s caught 8 of 8 targets for 54 receiving yards. Last week, TreVeyon saw just 5 snaps in the 2^nd half due to poor pass blocking snaps and penalties. He missed out on a rep that was drawn up for him in practice, Rhamondre ended up catching the pass for 55 receiving yards. He’s only played 31.7% of snaps through 2 weeks. He’ll face a Steelers defense that ranks 20^th in EPA/Rush through 2 weeks. Breece Hall ran for 107 yards week 1 and Kenneth Walker ran for 105 yards week 2 against this Steelers defense that has a few injuries to their front seven. They have been especially weak against man/gap concepts, allowed the most YPC (7.67) on 12 attempts. Half of TreVeyon’s attempts have been in man/gap concept, where he’s averaging 4.25 YPC. In terms of the receiving matchup, Kenneth Walker caught 1 reception for 13 yards, while Breece caught 2 receptions for 38 yards. TreVeyon is a class guy that scored excellent in interviews and was touted as the best pass blocker in the RB draft. I expect him to have a bounce back week in practice and get a bit more opportunities this week. I liked his receiving lines when it was 8.5 yards earlier in the week, but at 20 and above I am staying away.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

WR Stefon Diggs

The Patriots are bringing Diggs along slowly post ACL surgery. In week 1, he ran a route on 62.3% of Maye’s dropbacks. In week 2, his route rate declined to 46.7%. Through 2 weeks in a part time role, Diggs is averaging 44.5 receiving yards per game, 1.89 YPRR and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. He does still rank 1^st on the Patriots in 1^st-read rate at 21.6%. He’s splitting time out wide and in the slot, at 66% and 34% rates respectively. He’ll face a Steelers defense that ranks 5^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed through 2 weeks. This defense has some major players that have yet to practice this week due to injury, including Joey Porter Jr, DeShon Elliott and Alex Highsmith. The Steelers have played single-high at the 9^th highest rate this season (60%) and were number 1 in frequency last season (66.4%). Last season with the Texans, Diggs averaged 2.24 YPRR and 27% TPRR against single-high. Those are positive splits compared to two-high, where he averaged 1.95 YPRR and 24% TPRR. Diggs is splitting time out wide and in the slot, at 66% and 34% rates respectively. Through 2 games, the Steelers have allowed the 9^th most receiving yards to wide alignment, but the 9^th fewest to the slot. I expect a small increase in workload for Diggs and like his receiving lines.

Suggested Pick:

Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

50+ Receiving Yards (+140)

60+ Receiving Yards (+225)

 

WR Kayshon Boutte

After a breakout week 1, Boutte was only targeted once in week 2, catching it for 16 yards. He still leads the team in receiving yards due to his massive 103 yard performance in week 1. He leads the team in route rate at 72.3% as the Patriots slowly bring Diggs along post ACL surgery. He’s averaging 1.98 YPRR, has been targeted on 15% of his routes and has a 1^st-read rate of 15.7%. He’ll face a Steelers defense that ranks 5^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed through 2 weeks. This defense has some major players that have yet to practice this week due to injury, including Joey Porter Jr, DeShon Elliott and Alex Highsmith. The Steelers have played single-high at the 9^th highest rate this season (60%) and were number 1 in frequency last season (66.4%). Last season, Boutte averaged 1.55 YPRR and 16% TPRR against single-high. Those are negative splits compared to two-high, where he averaged 1.93 YPRR and 18% TPRR. Boutte has almost exclusively lined up out wide, at a 96.7% rate. The Steelers have allowed the 9^th most receiving yards to wide alignment through 2 games. I’m not buying his massive week 1 performance, I’ll take his unders.

Suggested Pick:

Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Under 2.5 Receptions (-104)

 

TE Hunter Henry

After a strong performance in week 1, Henry was quiet in week 2. He caught just 1 of 3 targets for 9 receiving yards. On the season, he’s averaging 37.5 receiving yards per game, 1.36 YPRR, and he’s been targeted on 20% of his routes. He is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 17.6%. His route rate decreased from 67.9% to 63.3% week over week has Austin Hooper got more involved. He’ll face a Steelers defense that ranks 5^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed through 2 weeks. This defense has some major players that have yet to practice this week due to injury, including Joey Porter Jr, DeShon Elliott and Alex Highsmith. The Steelers have played single-high at the 9^th highest rate this season (60%) and were number 1 in frequency last season (66.4%). Last season, Henry averaged 1.37 YPRR and 20% TPRR against single-high. Those are mixed splits, as Henry averaged 1.59 YPRR and 18% TPRR against two-high. Henry has lined up all over the field, but his highest frequency has come inline (38.2%). The Steelers have allowed the 4^th most receiving yards to inline alignment through 2 games. I like Henry to get back on track in week 3.

Suggested Pick:

Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

50+ Receiving Yards (+190)

Anytime TD (+300)

Josh McDaniels and the Patriots increased their motion rate from 24.5% in week 1 to 46.6% in week 2. That resulted in a massive improvement in Maye and the Patriots offensive production. They’ll face a Steelers defense that has gotten torched defensively early this season, as they are dealing with several injuries. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots have gotten torched against the pass but have been strong against the run. We’ll see if Rodgers can get back on track in the passing game after a rough week 2. I lean Patriots as I think both these defenses are susceptible, but I liked the Patriots offense better than the Steelers in week 2.

Best Bet: Patriots +3.5 -160
Lean: Over 44.5 -112
Score Prediction: Steelers 21 Patriots 24

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +300

The Steelers have allowed the 4^th most receiving yards to inline alignment through 2 games. That’s saying something, as they have played 2 weak TE groups in the Jets and the Seahawks. AJ Barner (Seahawks) scored a TD vs them last week. I like Henry to get back on track after a quiet week 2 in a bullish matchup against the Steelers.

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +140

DK caught his first target from Aaron Rodgers last week against his former team, and I’m going right back to him. Rodgers loves honing in on 1 WR, especially near the red zone, and DK has the build and pedigree to be that guy. The Steelers are playing a Patriots defense that has been strong against the run but weak against the pass. Expecting multiple redzone targets for DK in this one.

 

First Touchdown Picks

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +1700

Same analysis as anytime TD. Love the value here for a guy that should be 2^nd on the team in target rate, behind Stefon Diggs. Henry is a big body that should provide Maye a nice target to throw to in the redzone.

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +850

Same analysis as anytime TD. The Patriots are strong against the run but weak against the pass through 2 weeks. DK does not have much target competition as he’s the clear number 1 WR. Expecting Rodgers to target him early!

Parlay #1: (+600)

Jaylen Warren 20+ Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs Over 42.5 Receiving Yards

DK Metcalf Anytime TD

 

Parlay #2: (+800)

Jaylen Warren 20+ Receiving Yards

Drake Maye Over 229.5 Passing Yards

Hunter Henry Anytime TD

QB Daniel Jones
Through two weeks, Daniel Jones ranks second in the NFL in passing yards, completing 71.4% of his throws while averaging 9.3 yards per attempt and posting a 111.1 passer rating. He’s been efficient and safe with the football, carrying just a 1.4% turnover-worthy play rate, and he’s contributed on the ground with 13 carries for 28 yards and three rushing touchdowns—the only rushing scores for the Colts so far this season. Tennessee’s defense has been respectable, allowing the 13th-most passing yards per game (237), holding opponents to a passer rating of 80.5 (25th), and splitting a 3:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. With it being the Titans’ home opener and a divisional matchup, Jones could face more resistance, though Tennessee’s pass rush hasn’t been finishing plays, registering just two sacks and a 2.6% sack rate. They have, however, pressured quarterbacks quickly, owning the eighth-lowest time to pressure (2.43 seconds) and forcing the 14th-highest checkdown rate (8.2%). Looking back at Week 1, Bo Nix managed 18 rushing yards on eight attempts against this defense, suggesting Jones could be pressed into using his legs more often in what should be a competitive game.

 Suggested Picks
‘O’ 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
30+ Rushing Yards (+163)

 

RB Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor enters Week 3 as the NFL’s rushing leader with 236 yards through two games, averaging an impressive 5.5 yards per attempt while splitting his work evenly between zone and man/gap schemes. He’s also contributed as a receiver with five catches for 77 yards. Though he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown yet, Taylor already has 12 red-zone carries, suggesting touchdowns are on the horizon. Tennessee, once an elite run defense, hasn’t shown the same dominance in 2025. In Week 1, they gave up 133 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries to J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey, followed by 110 yards and a score on 22 carries to Kyren Williams and Blake Corum in Week 2. The Titans’ struggles stem from allowing the fourth-highest explosive run rate (10.9%) and the third-highest yards per carry (5.45). Taylor himself owns the third-best yards per carry among backs with at least 15 touches, though his explosive run rate sits at just 4.7% so far. However, we know that Taylor is a legit home run threat and we should see that explosive run rate rise throughout the season. Given his proven big-play ability, this matchup sets up as another strong opportunity for Taylor—unless Jeffery Simmons and the Titans’ front can tighten things up. The last time he faced Tennessee? He finished with 218 scrimmage yards!

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 104.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Michael Pittman Jr.
After a strong Week 1 performance with six catches on eight targets for 80 yards and a touchdown, Michael Pittman followed up with a quieter Week 2, posting four catches for 40 yards on five targets against a tough Broncos secondary. He sits second on the team in targets (13), averaging 12.0 yards per reception, and is the only receiver outside of Jonathan Taylor to find the end zone so far. Pittman lines up primarily outside (68.3%) but also sees work in the slot (28.6%). While he has the ability to stretch the field, his role has leaned more toward being a reliable possession receiver, with a 6.8 average depth of target and 1.97 yards per route run. With tight end Warren questionable, Pittman could be leaned on even more in this matchup, though the game script may favor the Colts’ run game if Tennessee’s offense continues to sputter. His props don’t stand out this week with the lines set appropriately, but if Warren is ruled out or limited, Pittman’s overs could become more intriguing.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (+115) - LEAN

WR Josh Downs
After a quiet Week 1, Josh Downs showed more involvement in Week 2, recording six catches on eight targets for 51 yards and leading all Colts receivers in targets. Interestingly, the WR2 role against Tennessee has been productive so far—Troy Franklin logged four catches for 44 yards on six targets in Week 1, and Davante Adams followed in Week 2 with a massive 13 targets, six catches, 106 yards, and a touchdown, including a team-high five red-zone looks. While Adams is hardly a typical WR2, the trend is still worth noting. Downs has primarily operated in a short-area role, averaging 7.9 yards per reception, 1.58 yards per route run, and a 7.3 average depth of target, while running 72.5% of his routes from the slot. With him likely serving as the offense’s third option, a 4.5-reception line feels a bit high, though the matchup does create some intrigue. Again, it’ll likely be dependent on the health of Warren too.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions (-140)

 

TE Tyler Warren
Warren’s status remains up in the air as he deals with a toe injury, and it’s possible we won’t know until Sunday whether he’ll be active or if his workload will be limited. That uncertainty alone makes him a risky play, but there’s no denying how important he’s been to this Colts offense when healthy. He currently leads the team in targets (16), receptions (11), and receiving yards (155), showing up as both a reliable chain-mover and a big-play option. The Colts like to keep defenses guessing with how they deploy him—lining up 32.8% of the time in the slot, 12.5% out wide, and 51.6% in line—while making him a near every-down player with snaps on virtually all passing plays (64 so far). The challenge this week is the matchup, as Tennessee has historically been tough against tight ends. Last year, they gave up the fourth-fewest targets (98), sixth-fewest receptions (70), and second-fewest yards (636) to the position. That stinginess has carried into 2025, with Tyler Higbee managing only 37 yards on four catches in Week 1 and Evan Engram held to three receptions for 21 yards in Week 2. Considering Warren is unlikely to be at full strength even if he suits up, and given how difficult this Titans defense is against his position, it’s hard to view him as anything but a fade for this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions (+110)

QB Cam Ward
Ward's numbers haven’t impressed through two weeks, but it’s worth noting he faced tough matchups against the Broncos and Rams. Now he returns home for what could be another difficult test. The Colts have allowed just 352 passing yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions through two games. Opposing QBs are completing 67% of their passes against them, and they rank 12th in coverage grade. They've also given up the 12th-lowest passer rating (83.5) and have forced the second-highest turnover-worthy throw rate (6.6%). On top of that, they're limiting deep shots, allowing the 9th-lowest deep throw rate (8.2%). However, Indy’s pass rush has been underwhelming — just three sacks and a 27th-ranked pass-rush grade. That’s a welcome relief for Tennessee’s offensive line, which ranks second-worst in pass protection, and for Ward, who’s already been sacked 11 times. There was at least a slight uptick in mobility from Ward in Week 2 (4 carries for 8 yards) after zero rush attempts in Week 1. One positive: he’s avoided mistakes, with no interceptions or turnover-worthy throws so far. Still, accuracy is a major concern. His 50.8% completion rate is partly due to drops, but his -7.9% completion percentage over expected suggests deeper accuracy issues. Until that improves, it’s tough to trust him to hit his passing yardage prop in this spot.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 203.5 Passing Yards (-111)

 

RB Tony Pollard
Pollard had a strong Week 2, rushing 20 times for 92 yards, and notably, he was the only Titans running back to record a carry in the game. Through two weeks, he’s dominated the backfield with a 38-to-2 carry advantage over the rest of the Titans RBs, averaging 4.0 yards per carry. The Colts have struggled against the run, ranking 24th in run defense grade. They've allowed 5.44 yards per carry (4th highest in the league), with over half of that yardage coming from explosive plays—highlighted by giving up 76 yards and a touchdown to J.K. Dobbins in Week 2 and 55 yards on just 7 carries to De’Von Achane in Week 1. They’ve also allowed the second-highest explosive run rate (13.9%) and haven’t shown strength against either zone or gap run schemes, both of which Pollard operates in effectively (IND has allowed between 5.25–5.31 YPC to both types). With a rookie QB under center and a struggling pass-blocking line, Tennessee will likely continue leaning on the run game to take pressure off the passing attack. Given the volume and matchup, Pollard’s overs are firmly in play here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 68.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR Calvin Ridley
Through two weeks, Ridley has been underwhelming, managing just seven catches on 14 targets (a 50% reception rate) for 84 yards and no touchdowns. His receiver grading ranks near the bottom, ahead of only Tyler Lockett, and his 23% target share falls short of what you’d expect from a true alpha wide receiver. A 22.2% drop rate and a negative 2.1 yards per target over reception further highlight his struggles. The matchup against the Colts doesn’t inspire much confidence either—they allow the third-lowest yards per target (5.97) and the second-lowest yards per reception (8.59), though they do give up the 25th-highest yards after the catch per reception (5.02). Still, with Indianapolis also holding opponents to the sixth-lowest opportunity catch rate (76.3%), it’s a tough spot for a quarterback completing just 50% of his passes and a receiver catching only half of his. Ridley’s talent is undeniable, but this may not be the week that he and Cam put it all together.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions (-114)

 

WR Elic Ayomanor
In Week 2, this young receiver stood out, showing clear chemistry with his rookie quarterback by posting four catches on six targets for 56 yards and a touchdown. If you haven’t seen the touchdown between Cam and Elic, do yourself a favor and go look it up. He’s established himself as the team’s primary deep threat, leading the offense with a 16.1 average depth of target, 11.5 yards per reception, and a 41% share of air yards. Elic tops the team in receiver grading and is the first read on nearly 27% of dropbacks, while lining up out wide on 95% of his snaps and running routes on 93.3% of passing plays. The Colts’ defense has shown some vulnerability to deeper passes, allowing big gains to Troy Franklin (42 yards) and Marvin Mims (23 yards) in Week 2. With Ward’s struggles in completion percentage, betting on Elic’s receptions feels risky, but given his high aDOT and frequent deep looks, the over on his longest reception is much more appealing.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-160)
LR ‘O’ 17.5 Yards (-110)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
After an underwhelming debut with three catches for 29 yards, Chig followed up with a modest Week 2 performance, hauling in four of six targets for 35 yards. While typically used as a downfield threat, that hasn’t materialized in 2025—his average depth of target sits at just 3.4 with only 0.92 yards per route run, though he has produced a solid 5.6 yards after the catch per reception. The team has moved him around the formation, lining up 31.8% in line, 56.1% in the slot, and 10.6% out wide. Unfortunately, the matchup isn’t favorable, as Indianapolis has been stingy against tight ends, holding Tanner Conner to two catches for 20 yards in Week 1 and limiting Evan Engram and Adam Trautman to a combined four catches for 22 yards in Week 2. Chig has been efficient, catching seven of his ten targets thanks to the short routes, but that’s likely not the role they envision for him long-term. Given the matchup, he’s more of a fade or pass option, with a slight lean toward the under on 3.5 receptions but without much conviction.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-102) - LEAN

This is a really tough game to predict. Danny Dimes has been unreal this year and the Colts have not punted at all through 2 weeks but this is a possible letdown spot and TE Warren who leads the team in every statistical category is questionable with a toe injury. If he is not available it could be a tough day for Indy on offense. Titans have faced some really good defensive fronts and this matchup could be a little easier for them. The biggest question on the Titans is their head coach. He's been embarrased over the first two weeks with failing a obvious challenge situation and TEN having the worst penalty margin in the league. He knows he has to shore that up. Give me the Titans in a grind it out type of game as they look to avoid going 0-3.

Best Bet: Under 43.5 -110
Lean: Titans +4.5 -115
Score Prediction: Colts 17 Titans 20

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Colts) Jonathan Taylor (-160)
I know, there's juice here, but this is a great spot for Taylor to finally find the endzone with his legs. an RB has found the endzone in each of the first two games against TEN and Taylor has 12 redzone carries through two weeks.

Best Bet: (Titans) Tony Pollard (-105)
He gets all the work in this backfield as long as Spears in sidelined. He only has 3 redzone looks, but IND can be suceptible to the run especially if this game stays close.

First Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Colts) Jonathan Taylor (+375)
See above. As the favorites, we could easily see IND jump out ahead early.

Longshot: (Titans) Chimere Dike (+3000)
Leads the team in redzone targets with 3, which all came last week. He's also a deep threat and a kick/punt returner. Nice little value at +3000.

Parlay #1: (Colts)(+143 on FanDuel)
Daniel Jones 15+ Rushing
Jonathan Taylor 10+ Q1 Rushing
Michael Pittman 4+ Receptions

Parlay #2: (Titans)(-112 on FanDuel)
TEN Titans +10.5
Tony Pollary 50+ Rushing Yards
Elic Ayomanor to Record 10+ Yard Reception

Parlay #3: (Titans)(+1499 on FanDuel)
TEN Titans ML
Tony Pollard 70+ Rushing Yards
Chimere Dike Touchdown

QB C.J. Stroud
Another week brought another uneven outing from C.J. Stroud, who went 13-of-24 (54%) for 207 yards and one touchdown through the air, while adding 27 yards on four carries. Just 76 of those passing yards came after halftime as Houston squandered its lead in a last-second loss to Tampa Bay. Protection issues remain glaring, with the Texans ranking 28th in pass-blocking grade and the passing offense sitting at 29th overall. Stroud owns a 2.9% turnover-worthy play rate and a modest 7.9 average depth of target, though his 3.00-second average time to throw (9th highest) shows he’s at least getting chances to extend plays. Still, his production has lagged, as he ranks 30th in passer rating (85.0). This week’s opponent, Jacksonville, looked vulnerable in coverage after surrendering 317 yards combined to Burrow and Browning, yet the unit has still forced five interceptions through two games, with a pass rush ranking 17th and coverage grade sitting 4th overall. Given Houston’s preference for leaning on the run and its defense to keep games close, Stroud is unlikely to see heavy passing volume in this divisional clash.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 31.5 Passing Attempts (+102)

 

RB Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb once again handled the clear majority of Houston’s backfield work in Week 2, tallying 12 carries compared to rookie Woody Marks’ three, and he finished with 43 rushing yards and a touchdown while also adding two catches for 29 yards. It’s worth noting, though, that 25 of those receiving yards came on a late play where Tampa Bay’s defense appeared to allow him to score quickly to preserve time, meaning without that break Chubb’s line would have looked far less impressive at 11 carries for just 18 yards. That inefficiency highlights the struggles of running behind Houston’s offensive line, and the challenge doesn’t get much easier in Week 3. Jacksonville comes in ranked 5th in run defense, and just last week they held Chase Brown to 2.9 yards per carry, showing they can bottle up early-down runners. Sportsbooks have taken notice, setting Chubb’s rushing lines at just 13.5 attempts and 45.5 yards, which reflects both the difficult matchup and the team’s current offensive limitations. Even so, Houston has remained committed to establishing the run despite their 0-2 start, leaning on Chubb to stabilize the offense while keeping pressure off C.J. Stroud. Efficiency is unlikely to be the story this week, but the volume and goal-line opportunities should still be there, making Chubb a steady, if unspectacular, option in this divisional matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 13.5 Rushing Attempts (+105)

 

WR Nico Collins
Nico Collins bounced back somewhat in Week 2, but still fell short of the high expectations surrounding him, turning 9 targets into just 3 catches for 52 yards while salvaging the day with a touchdown. The encouraging part is the volume increase, though his production remains tied to C.J. Stroud’s ability to deliver, which we’ve noted could be a challenge this week. Collins has historically been more effective against man coverage, but Jacksonville runs zone at the 5th-highest rate in the league, and they’ll likely look to match him with Tyson Campbell, who has underwhelmed so far. If that matchup materializes, Stroud may lean Collins’ way more often. On the positive side, Collins’ individual metrics remain strong, with the team’s second-best receiving grade through two weeks, 12.8 yards per reception, and a 10.9 aDOT—slightly down from last season (15.1 YPR, 11.9 aDOT) but still very solid. His usage is also steady, running routes on 91.8% of dropbacks, lining up out wide 77% of the time and in the slot 23%, while also leading the team with 4 red-zone targets. Until Stroud shows more consistency, it’s tough to back Collins’ yardage or reception props in this matchup, but his heavy usage, big-play potential, and strong red-zone role keep him firmly in the mix as Houston’s top receiving option.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown (+145)

 

WR Christian Kirk
Christian Kirk returns in Week 3 from the hamstring injury that sidelined him the first two games, looking to make his debut with Houston after being acquired in a trade with Jacksonville this past March. Primarily a slot receiver—he played 81.7% of his snaps inside last year—Kirk should remain in that role with his new team, offering C.J. Stroud a reliable short-to-intermediate option, which could prove valuable given the Texans’ offensive line struggles. When healthy, Kirk has been productive, as shown in 2023 when he managed 27 catches for 379 yards and a touchdown in just 8 games, averaging 14 yards per reception, 4.2 yards after the catch, and a 13.7 aDOT. The biggest concern has always been durability, but his ability to separate and work the middle of the field could make him an immediate safety valve. That said, slot receivers haven’t had much success against Jacksonville so far, with Ja’Tavion Sanders and Andre Iosivas combining for just 3 catches on 8 targets for 39 yards. With no props currently available for Kirk and questions about how involved he’ll be in his first game back, this feels like a spot to take a wait-and-see approach unless his lines open unusually low.

Suggested Picks
PASS

 

WR Xavier Hutchinson
Xavier Hutchinson continued to see solid usage in Week 2, logging 22 snaps—second among Houston wideouts behind only Nico Collins—and drawing 3 targets, converting them into 2 catches for 29 yards. His 12.0 aDOT through two weeks shows the Texans are looking to involve him in the intermediate and deeper passing game, and his versatility stands out as he’s lined up 81.3% of the time out wide and 18.8% in the slot. The coaching staff clearly values his presence, playing him ahead of rookies Higgins and Noel as well as veteran Justin Watson, which speaks to their confidence in his development. Sportsbooks haven’t posted any receiving props for Hutchinson yet, but his consistent role makes him a name to monitor even with the return of Kirk. If the lines come in low again—like 1.5 receptions or yardage totals in the 20s—there could be value, but if oddsmakers bump them up too high based on usage alone, it’s likely best to pass.

Suggested Picks
No lines available yet

 

TE Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz turned in another modest outing in Week 2, catching 3 of 4 targets for 29 yards after a nearly identical Week 1 performance of 3 for 28 on 5 targets, giving him at least some consistency even if the production has been underwhelming. He continues to play a significant role, logging 50 passing snaps—second most behind Nico Collins—and lining up in the slot 40% of the time, though that number could dip with Christian Kirk back in the mix. Schultz’s 6.0 aDOT, down from 8.3 last season, reflects his role as more of an outlet option in an offense where C.J. Stroud is under constant pressure. Jacksonville was middle-of-the-pack against tight ends in 2023, ranking 13th in yards allowed (933), 15th in receptions (87), and 5th in touchdowns (8), making this matchup neither particularly favorable nor concerning. With Kirk likely pushing Schultz from the No. 2 option in the passing game down to third in the pecking order, his volume could take a hit. Jacksonville’s heavy zone usage could benefit Schultz and he did clear this line in both games against them last year. Still, given the offensive context and shifting target hierarchy, I’d lean toward fading his yardage in this spot.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 32.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

QB Trevor Lawrence
I had high hopes for Trevor coming into the season, but through two weeks he hasn’t shown the step forward many expected. He’s averaging just 224.5 passing yards per game with a 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and that production came against two of the softer pass defenses in the league. Things get more difficult this week against a Texans defense that ranks second in pass rush efficiency while sitting 22nd in coverage. Houston plays zone at one of the highest rates in the league (sixth overall), which could pose problems for Trevor given his recent struggles reading defenses and protecting the football. Turnovers have been especially concerning—among quarterbacks with at least 70 dropbacks, he owns the sixth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate at 4.1%. Accuracy has also been an issue, as his completion rate sits at just 59.5%, and his receivers haven’t exactly made life easier with a brutal 15.4% drop rate. All of this adds up to a divisional matchup that feels more likely to grind into a lower-scoring affair than an offensive breakout. The history doesn’t inspire confidence either, as Trevor has thrown at least one interception in five straight games, including three of his last four against this very Texans team. Until he proves he can clean up the turnovers and find rhythm with his receivers, this isn’t a spot where I’d want to back him.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (-143)

 

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
In Week 2, Travis Etienne once again asserted himself as the leader of the Jaguars’ backfield, outsnapping Tuten 17 to 10 and out-carrying him 14 to 8. Etienne turned those touches into 71 rushing yards, averaging just over five yards per carry, and added a pair of receptions for 18 yards on three targets. While it’s clear that this backfield is shifting toward more of a timeshare now that Bigsby is no longer in the mix, Etienne still looks to be the preferred option, particularly in key situations. One area where he separated himself significantly was in the passing game, dominating passing-down work with 30 snaps compared to Tuten’s eight. That usage suggests that while Tuten may continue to carve out a role on early downs, Etienne has the trust of the coaching staff as the primary passing-down back and could see his role in that area expand as the season goes on. The matchup against Houston offers both opportunity and challenges. The Texans’ run defense has struggled in 2025, ranking 27th overall, and they’re coming off a performance in which they allowed 27 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown to Tampa Bay in an overtime loss. On paper, this sets up as a favorable spot for Jacksonville’s ground game. However, with the Jaguars’ passing offense not yet clicking and Trevor Lawrence continuing to struggle with turnovers, Houston’s defense may adjust by stacking the box and daring Lawrence to beat them through the air. Both Etienne and Tuten have shown flashes as effective runners, but Etienne’s versatility as both a rusher and a receiver could be key in keeping the offense moving against a Texans unit that will likely focus on limiting the run first. If the passing game remains out of rhythm, Etienne may be leaned on even more heavily, though how much space he finds could depend on whether Lawrence can force Houston’s defense to respect the aerial attack.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
‘O’ 10.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

RB Bhayshul Tuten
With Tank Bigsby shipped out of town, Tuten has seen his role steadily expand, and so far, he has delivered production that mirrors the efficiency of Travis Etienne. In Week 2, he made the most of his touches, recording 8 carries for 42 yards while also contributing 2 receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown through the air. His 5.3 yards per carry actually edged out Etienne’s 5.1, a sign that he’s not only fitting into the offense but thriving when given opportunities. While Etienne remains the clear lead back, the Jaguars appear willing to carve out a more meaningful role for Tuten, especially as a runner, where his vision and burst continue to stand out. This week’s matchup against Houston could further highlight his value, as the Texans have shown vulnerability against the run. If Jacksonville is able to seize an early lead, there’s a strong chance they’ll lean into the ground game, utilizing both Etienne and Tuten to wear down the defense. Behind what has been graded as the NFL’s third-best run-blocking unit through two weeks, the conditions are in place for Tuten to maintain his efficiency and gradually evolve into a consistent complementary piece in this offense.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 22.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Through the first two weeks, Brian Thomas has looked out of sync and far less confident than expected. His production has been almost nonexistent, and he’s even appeared hesitant on plays where contact is looming, leading to uncharacteristic drops. The lone bright spot is volume—he leads the team with 28 targets—but he’s only managed to secure 5 catches for 60 yards. The advanced metrics paint an even rougher picture: a poor 52 receiving grade, a staggering 28.6% drop rate (with a 29.2 drop grade that’s the lowest I’ve seen so far), and virtually no yards after the catch, averaging just 0.6 per reception. Despite leading the team in passing snaps (77) and running routes on nearly every dropback (98.7%), he hasn’t been able to turn opportunity into results. His 14.2 average depth of target shows he’s still being used downfield, but the chemistry with Trevor Lawrence simply isn’t there, reflected in a team-low 17.8 passer rating when targeted. While Houston’s defense has allowed the 11th-highest catch rate (73.0%), they’ve kept a lid on big plays with the 23rd-highest yards per reception (10.0). Until Thomas cleans up the drops and starts connecting on those downfield looks, he’s someone I’d avoid or fade for now.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 5.5 Receptions (-147)

WR Travis Hunter
Travis Hunter is clearly someone the coaching staff has been eager to feature in the passing game, whether through quick throws or screen designs, but the results have been underwhelming so far. He ranks second on the team in targets (14) and leads in receptions (9), yet he sits just fifth in receiving yards with only 55. His efficiency metrics highlight the issue—his 6.1 yards per reception and 1.02 yards per route run are the lowest among the wideouts, and much of his production has depended on yards after the catch, averaging 4.9 per grab. With just a 6.5 average depth of target and a longest reception of 20 yards through two weeks, his usage has looked more like a gadget role than that of a true first-round playmaker. Unless the offense opens up his route tree and finds ways to unlock him downfield, his production ceiling will likely remain capped, especially against a Houston defense that has limited big plays, allowing the 23rd-lowest yards per reception (10.0) and ranking middle of the pack in yards after the catch allowed (4.43).

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions (-137)
‘U’ 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Brenton Strange
Brenton Strange has opened the 2025 season on a steady but unspectacular note, hauling in 7 of his 9 targets across the first two weeks for 76 total yards. His efficiency stems from the type of routes he’s being asked to run, as his average depth of target sits at just 7.7 yards, and his 1.25 yards per route run further emphasizes his role as more of a short-to-intermediate possession option than a vertical threat. Strange has at least shown some ability to create after the catch, averaging 4.1 yards after the catch per reception, but that hasn’t been enough to push his production into fantasy relevance just yet. The upcoming matchup against Houston presents another roadblock, as this defense has consistently been one of the stingiest units against tight ends. Last season, the Texans ranked near the top of the league in limiting the position, allowing the 11th fewest targets (113), 7th fewest receptions (73), and 8th fewest yards (709) overall. That trend has carried into the early part of 2025, with Houston surrendering just 6 catches on 9 targets for a meager 32 yards and a single touchdown through two games. Given the combination of Strange’s limited role in the passing game and the defensive matchup, it’s hard to project much upside here. Unless Jacksonville makes a concerted effort to expand his involvement beyond low aDOT routes, Strange looks like more of a volume-dependent safety valve than a player poised to break out, making him a tough sell in Week 3.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-145)

This Texans team sold our 15-0 ML sweep last week but they held their own against the Bucs. I believe in this Texans defense this team in the games all year long. The Texans are 0-2 and NEED A WIN BAD. Jags really havent been tested on dropbacks facing bad pass pressure teams but that is not the case today facing this Texans team that gets to you quick. Jacksonville has failed to take advantage or two of the best defensive matchups they'll see this season (CAR and CIN) and we've already seen disagreements between Head Liam Coach Coen and Trevor Lawrence on the sideline. I'm closing my eyes and taking the Texans on the road to avoid starting 0-3.

Best Bet: Texans ML +105
Lean: Under 43.5 -110
Score Prediction: Texans 24 Jags 20

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Texans) Nico Collins (+145)
Going back to our guy here, who holds 4 of the 6 redzone targets so far this season. He's had 2 touchdown in his last 4 matchups against Jacksonville.

Best Bet: (Jaguars) Bhayshul Tuten (+260)
Tuten has carved out a nice role in this offense and physically is more suited to be the goal line back. He shown better efficiency at times and is a weapon in the open field as a pass catcher.

First Touchdown Picks

Longshot: (Texans) Dalton Schultz (+2000)
Schultz has yet to get a redzone target this season, but there has only by 6 total. JAX allowed 8 touchdowns to tight ends last season and their heavy zone scheme could lead to that again in 2025.

Best Bet: (Jaguars) Brian Thomas Jr. (+850)
We've discussed why we aren't the biggest fan of BTJ this week, but the redzone targets have been there for him. At this point, we are getting a nice price for the primary weapon in this offense, so I'll bite.

Parlay #1: +307 on FanDuel
HOU Texans ML
Trevor Lawrence o11.5 Rushing Yards
Nico Collins 40+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #2: +336 on FanDuel
C.J. Stroud 15+ Rushing Yards
Nick Chubb 40+ Rushing Yards
Brian Thomas Jr. u62.5 Receiving Yards

QB Michael Penix Jr.

After a fairly productive week one (27-42, 298 yds, TD) vs Tampa Bay, the Falcons did not require much out of Michael Penix in his game at Minnesota. He threw for just 135 yards, completing 13 of his 21 pass attempts, while having the lowest dropback rate in week 2 at just 38.3%. Admittedly, I have trashed on Carolina’s pass defense in each of the first two weeks of the ’25 season, but they limited Trevor Lawrence (178 YDS, TD) and Kyler Murray (220 YDS, TD) to low offensive outputs in their first two games of the season. In 7 career starts, Penix did face the Panthers to close out last season, a game in which he threw for 312 yards and 2 TD’s. A deeper look into what appears to be feeble numbers is really just a direct result of just how poorly Carolina has performed in the first half this season. We’re only two games into the season and the Panthers have been outscored 40-6. This is by far the worst point differential so far. Until we see any consistency in first 30 minutes of the game on defenses, I am fading opposing QB passing yards vs Carolina.

Suggested Bet:

Michael Penix u216.5 Pass Yards (-113)

 

RB Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson has begun the season just as the experts projected. He has been a monster out of the backfield for Atlanta, and despite being held to just 24 rush yards against Tampa Bay, he still caught 6 balls for 100 yards in week one. In his most recent game against the Vikings, Robinson ran for 143 yards on 22 carries (6.5 YPC) and added 5 more receptions for 25 yards. We are only 2 games into the regular season, and already Bijan has produced 292 all-purpose yards out of the backfield. As it relates to Carolina, Robinson carved up the Panthers in both of his matchups last year. His first game yielded 18 touches for 105 yards, 2 TD, and he bested his first effort by turning 30 touches into 172 yards and 2 more TD’s. The Panthers rank just 23rd in run defense and we know what Bijan can do in the receiving game. Despite Tyler Allgier’s usage possibly going up, it’s likely not going to play a major effect on Robinson’s numbers.

Suggested Bet:

Bijan Robinson 110+ Rush + Rec Yards (-177)

Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (-240)

 

WR Drake London

Drake London is a complicated puzzle to solve this Sunday for a variety of reasons. He hauled in 8 of his 15 targets for 55 yards in week 1 vs the Bucs, but he was most unused last week in Minnesota, catching 3 of 4 passes for 49 yards. We are also still waiting to see London find the end zone for Atlanta. As far as his week 3 matchup vs CAR, London could be in for a really big game, that is so long as the Falcons are throwing the football. He lit up the Panthers in his last start by catching 10 of 18 targets for 187 yards and 2 TDs. Carolina is still leaning on its base Cover-3 defense, and they run this on 45.8% of their passing plays. When facing Cover-3 schemes, Penix has targeted London 41.2% of the time. From everything that has come out so far in Carolina, it appears their main focus is going to be on limiting the production of Bijan Robinson. We are waiting for Drake London to have that go-off game and as long as Carolina can keep this one from getting out of hand early, the Falcons superstar WR has a good chance to blow out the books in this spot.

Suggested Bet:

Drake London 60+ Receiving Yards (-137)

Drake London ALT 70+ Receiving Yards (+110)

Drake London ALT 80+ Receiving Yards (+161)

 

WR Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney returned to the Falcons lineup last week, but he garnered 2 catches on a total of just 4 targets. Through the first two weeks of the season, Atlanta has revolved their passing game around the usual suspects. Of his 63 PAs, Michael Penix has targeted Drake London (19), Kyle Pitts (13) or Bijan Robinson (12) 69.8 of the time. Beyond that it’s a mixed bag, and until we can see Mooney stay healthy on the field for any extended length of time, I will continue to rely on the big 3 in this offense.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

 

TE Kyle Pitts

It’s only week 3, but the once unreliable Kyle Pitts has seemingly found his niche with Michael Penix and the Falcons offense. His role has increased significantly, and the biggest reason for this is because of shift in its offensive approach. Last year, Atlanta lined up with three WR’s on 87.0% of its offensive snaps which resulted in the Falcons leaving just one TE on the field where in many instances Pitts was relied upon to provide pass and run blocking protection. Now, ATL is mixing in more 2-tight end sets and Pitts role has moved into a more traditional passing catching role. He’s been on the field for 80% of the Falcons offensive snaps. We’re not saying Kyle Pitts is setting the world on fire yet, but this is certainly a step in the right direction. Playing Carolina is always a favorable matchup at TE position, but even more so in ’25 as the Panthers are allowing just under 12.0 YPT (29th) and a catch rate of 81.2% (26th). This has resulted in Carolina allowing 13 receptions for 188 yards with 1 TD in just 2 weeks. Pitts has lots of value!

Suggested Bet:

Kyle Pitts 40+ Receiving Yards (-125)

Kyle Pitts o17.5 Longest Reception (120)

QB Bryce Young

The Panthers have dug themselves a hole in each of the first 2 weeks, but at least Bryce Young showed he had a pulse in Arizona. The Carolina QB completed 35 of 55 pass attempts for 328 yards and 3 TDS, all career highs. Unfortunately, if you’re a Bryce Young fan don’t expect a repeat performance this week as the Panthers will be without 2 members of their O-line in Austin Corbett and Robert Hunt. Their absence is even more magnified when you consider the Falcons have the 3rd highest pressure rate (46.5%) and 4th highest sack rate (11.6%) through the first 2 weeks of the season. So far in ’25, Bryce Young has completed a putrid 44.6% of his attempts for just 4.7 yards PPA when he is under pressure. His value will be in the running game where he will be forced to use his legs. In 2 games, ATL has allowed 39 rushing yards to Baker Mayfield and 25 yards to J.J. McCarthy.

Suggested Bet:

Bryce Young o13.5 Rush Yards (-114)

Bryce Young ALT 25+ Rush Yards (+239)

 

RB Chubba Hubbard

Despite an 0-2 start, Chubba Hubbard has posted starts of 89 yards (TD) and 77 yards (TD), but he’s accumulated only 95 of these yards by way of the running game, averaging just 3.7 YPC to begin the season. Without two of Carolina’s starting offensive linemen it’s going to be difficult to expect a whole lot out of Hubbard this week. While he’s had decent history vs Atlanta, Chubba’s workload on the ground has lessened and he’s facing a Falcons defense right now that is currently limiting opposing RBs to 3.4 YPC (9th best in NFL)  through the first 2 weeks. Atlanta has also put the clamps down on defending the pass against opposing RBs. The Falcons have allowed a total of 7 receptions for only 18 yards, and one of those included Bucky Irving they limited to 4 receptions and 8 yards.

Suggested Bet:

Chubba Hubbard u3.5 Receptions (-174)

 

WR Tetairoa McMillan

Tetairoa McMillan grabbed 6 of 10 targets for 100 yards in last week's game. He is the clear WR1 for Carolina, leading them in both targets and receiving yards through the first 2 weeks of the season. While Atlanta boasts a top-5 pass defense, allowing just 139.5 YPG and a 52.8% completion rate, their blitz rate (53.3% in week 2) does leave soft spots underneath. The Falcons also allowed the highest target share to opposing outside WRs this year (52.0%). In the first 2 weeks of the season McMillan has lined up on the outside for 84.5% of his snaps, and if Atlanta ends up being without CB A.J. Terrell on Sunday this will be an excellent spot for McMillan. This is a line both Emeka Egbuka and Justin Jefferson have already cleared against the Falcons, and garbage time is always a benefit to Carolina wide receivers.

Suggested Bet:

Tetairoa McMillan 60+ Receiving Yards (-145)

 

WR Hunter Renfroe

Xavier Legette's mental lapses and inability to draw any separation away from defenders has led to the emergence of Hunter Renfroe, who has eclipsed 12 targets in the first 2 weeks. Coaches and players in Carolina's camp talked Renfroe up all off-season and we're starting to see why now. He gets a solid matchup this Sunday vs ATL, who uses zone coverage at a 70% clip and Renfroe has excelled in this area. Another interesting note that shows the amount of trust QB Bryce Young has in Renfroe is that the Panthers WR has the 2nd hightest red zone target rate in the NFL through week 2. Atlanta is a 5.5 point favorite this Sunday. With a negative script and McMillan drawing most of the defense, Hunter Renfroe should see a high volume of usage.

Suggested Bet: 

Hunter Renfroe o33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Ja'Tavion Sanders

Ja'Tavion Sanders caught of 7 of 9 targets for 54 yard in his last game, but this volume was partly due to Carolina playing catch-up mode in the latter stages of the game. Sanders was on the field for 64.7% of the Panthers dropbacks, and with his recent performance there is a possibility for him to gain additional looks. That said, the Falcons have allowed just one catch for 12 yards to opposing TE's. Even though we're only two games into the season that's an impressive number and should not be overlooked.

Suggested Bet: 

Pass

Atlanta's offense is slowly beginning to create an identity for themselves. Meanwhile, Carolina is well, Carolina. Still, week 3 has been and will always be one of the most critical weeks in the NFL season for the very reason that nobody can afford to start off 0-3. For those teams who sitting at 0-2 you will see a major since of urgency. Only 6 teams in NFL history have ever made the playoffs after starting out 0-3. Despite being outscored 40-6 in the first half through 2 weeks, I think the Panthers find a way too keep this game close and competitive.

Best Bet: Falcons ML -218
Lean: Under 43.5 -102
Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Panthers 19

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: Bijan Robinson (Falcons) -215

If your curious as to why this line is so juiced, consider that Carolina has allowed a rushing TD in each of its first 2 games this season and they surrendered 21 scores (most in NFL) to RB's in '24. Couple that with Bijan Robinson racking up 4 TD's last season against the Panthers and he can score in multiple ways.

 

First Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: Bijan Robinson (Falcons) +330

The most likely touchdown candidate for the Falcons is without a doubt, Bijan Robinson. He's had a slew of success against the Panthers in the past, including 4 touchdowns scores last season. Carolina will do everything they can to limit his production, but he leads ATL in totals yards and is a huge threat both running and catching the football.

 

Longshot Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: DEF/ST (Falcons) +450

Bryce Young has been picked off 28 times in 30 starts, plus he's prone to fumbling the football. This was never more evident than last week when the Panthers QB coughed the ball up on the very first drive of the game, allowing Arizona to scoop it up and take it in for the score.

Parlay #1 (Falcons) +340

Bijan Robinson Anytime TD

Drake London 60+ Receiving Yards

Kyle Pitts 40+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2: (Panthers) +144

Tetairoa McMillan 60+ Receiving Yards

Hunter Renfroe 25+ Receiving Yards

QB Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford has started out '25 season well, but he's going to be in for a tough matchup this Sunday at Philadelphia. We talked last week about how Sean McVay has been working more to keep Stafford under center in the passing game. He hasn't minced words as the Rams veteran has been under center for 64.7% of his dropbacks, which is more than any other QB through the first 2 weeks of the season. Stafford has been consistent using pre-snap motion, where his is 33 of 39 (84.6%) for 9.5 YPA and 3 TDs. When utilizing play action pass, he is 21 of 26 (80.8%) for 10.6 YPA with 3 TD's. The problem Stafford is going to face on Sunday is the Eagles can apply a ton of pressure even without blitzing, and this has resulted in Philly allowing just 180.5 passing yards/game to opposing QB's. Stafford won't be shut down, but his lack of mobility will hurt him in this game. In two games last season vs the Eagles Stafford threw the ball 44 and 36 times, and with PHI coming in as a 3.5 point favorite at home it is likely the Rams will be playing from behind. I feel very confident in his passing attempts this week, and even though he threw 2 TD's in each of his two games last year against the Eagles, I have my doubts with him on the road Sunday. Throught the first 2 games of the season, Philadelphia has allowed only 1 passing touchdown and they've faced Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes!

Suggested pick:

Matthew Stafford 32+ Pass Attempts (-180)

Matthew Stafford u1.5 Pass Touchdowns (-126)

 

RB Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams has had exactly 19 touches out of the backfield in each of his first two games of the season. He posted a total of 69 yards in week 1 and 80 yards in week 2, and Williams has yet to find the end zone. There is also the growing concern of Blake Corum continuing to cut into some of Kyren's workload. He went from handling 90.4% of the backfield touches to 79.5% in his most recent game. That said, I don't think Corum's usage is going to continuing rising much above this point. More important than anything is the Rams do not use their RBs in the passing game. In two games last season, Williams rushed for 72 yards and 106 yards respectively but it should be pointed out that he also had a fumble lost in the both of his games last year against the Eagles. Considering how little Sean McVay uses RBs to catch the ball out of the backfield his reception total is the best value to target on Sunday.

Suggested Pick:

Kyren Williams u2.5 Receptions (-195)

 

WR Puka Nacua

Puca Nacua has picked up right where he left off in '25. In just the first two weeks of the season the Rams premier WR has already bagged 18 receptions for 221 yards, and he even added in an unexpected 45-yard TD run. The 3rd receiver out of BYU is a target machine for starting QB Matthew Stafford who looked Nacua way 11 times in week 1 and 9 times in week 2. Even with the addition of Davante Adams, Nacua is still being targeted on nearly 33% of his routes, and the Rams rely heavily on their WR's in the passing game (2nd most in NFL). Puka matchus up very well against this Eagles secondary, and in his one game last year vs PHI he caught 9 of 13 balls for 117 yards. Philly is stout vs the run, forcing opposing QB's into a high volume of passes. This is especially good for a versatile WR like Nacua who lines up in both the slot and on the outside. The addition of Davante Adams stretches coverages which helps create more open space for Puka. I expect Stafford to lean heavily on his safety blanket and McVay always finds a way to get him the ball.

Suggested pick:

Puka Nacua o.7.5 Receptions (-138)

Puka Nacua ALT 8+ Receptions (+126)

Puka Nacua ALT 9+ Receptions (+207)

 

WR Davanta Adams

True to his word, Rams HC Sean McVay wasted no time getting Davante Adams involved in the passing game. He leads the team with 21 targets and last week he caught 6 of 13 balls for 106 yards to with a TD, and Adams isn't being used solely as a downfield threat either. In the firsts 2 weeks of the season he has already seen 5 targets to the end zone. As I discussed in my write up on Puka Nacua, the Rams don't involve their TE and RB positions to produce many catches. This is backed up by the fact that Nacua (39.3%) and Adams (35.1%) have accounted for 74.4% of the Rams targets so far in '25. Adams has played 78.6% of his snaps as a wideout in the first 2 weeks of the season and h will draw Quinyon Mitchell who held CeeDee Lamb in check, but he can only do so much. The Eagles are first and foremost a run stop first team and this has led to severa miscues in their secondary. Heading into week 3, PHI has allowed 10.6 YPT (9th most in NFL) and 135.0 YPG (5th most in NFL) to outside WR's. Adams has caught long passes of 24 and 33 yards in his first 2 games and I'm just fine with him hammering this prop, considering the Eagles have given up reception plays of 49, 32, 23 and 21 yards this season.

Suggested pick:

Davante Adams 60+ Receiving Yards (-120)

Davonte Adams Longest Receptions o22.5 Yards (-115)

 

TE Tyler Higbee

Here is even more proof that Sean McVay's offense is almost totally reliant on WRs in the passing game. Rams tight ends have accounted for just 9 of 60 (15.0%) total passing targets in the first 2 weeks. The even bigger problem is there isn't any one TE you can rely on. Tyler Higbee (4 targets) has 4 receptions for 37 yards after 2 weeks, and Davis Allen (3 targets) has 2 catches but believe it or not both have been for TDs. The rank near the middle of the pack in defending the TE position and Allen, albeit a decent one, is clearly a longshot TD play only and Philadelphia has yet to surrender a TD to that position. If you're one who likes to rely solely on trends, Higbee did catch 7 balls on 10 targets vs the Eagles last season but they are defending the position much better so far in '25. Higbee proved me wrong last week, but it's going to take more than one game and a 6/7% overall target share for me to put my hard earned money on him.

Suggested pick:

Pass

QB Jalen Hurts

There's no Super Bowl hangover for Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles, as they're out to a 2-0 start. However, their schedule doesn't get any easier this week, as they face off against another 2-0 team, the Los Angeles Rams. It hasn't been a passing masterclass for the Eagles this season, as Hurts has just 253 passing yards through the first two weeks combined. In fact, he has yet to throw a passing touchdown despite scoring 20+ points in both weeks. In two games against the Rams last year, Hurts wasn't at his best either, failing to reach 200 passing yards in either match and barely surpassing the 300-yard mark combined. Los Angeles runs middle of the pack in both man coverage and zone coverage, but runs cover 3 at the second-highest rate (44%) across the entire NFL. Against cover 3, Hurts has the fourth-lowest yards per attempt (5.15) but the third-highest completion percentage (84.6%) so far this season. Hurts has completed 75.6% of his passes; it just depends now on him seeing the volume necessary to clear this completions lines.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts o17.5 Pass Completions (-120)

 

RB Saquon Barkley

Like most expected, the 2K rusher slump has fully hit Saquon Barkley this season. Through two games, Saquon has just 148 rushing yards. To put that into perspective, Barkley had five games last season where he rushed over that line – and two of those games he finished with 146 and 147. He is currently on pace to rush for 1,258 yards, which, by all accounts, is a solid season, but a disappointing year for a 2K rusher. This week, Saquon gets the LA Rams, who allow the 15th most rush attempts (20.5) and the 15th most rushing yards (84.5). So while he isn't on pace to repeat his numbers on the ground, Barkley is on pace to hit similar receiving numbers. Although, Saquon is close to his receiving numbers from last season, where he averaged 17.4 receiving yards per game. This season, Saquon is averaging just 15 receiving yards per game. His opponent, however, is dead last in receiving yards allowed per game (8.5) to opposing RBs.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley u15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR AJ Brown

Knock knock. Hello?? Is there any life in AJ Browns life this season? Sure, you bounced back from a one-reception, eight-yard game, finishing with five receptions on eight targets in Week 2, but for only 27 receiving yards? To put that into perspective for you, Brown has not finished with less than 35 yards in a game since Week 11 of 2023. That's nearly two seasons in two games to kick off the 2025 season. Yikes. Anyway. The Eagles face off against the Rams, who have proved to be one of the best defences in the league this year, while allowing the 11th-fewest receiving yards (126) per game this season. But diving in further than that, Brown lines up on the outside of 87% of his routes, which they've allowed the seventh-highest catch rate (69.2% – nice). But with Brown seeing a target increase of 4.3% to 36.4% from Weeks 1 & 2, you can expect more passing and more Brown involvement in Week 3. Against the Rams in the regular season last year, Brown caught six of seven targets for 109 receiving yards and 1 TD.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown o62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Devonta Smith

Looking back, it's hard to gauge this Eagles offence. Nobody did well in Week 1, but both receivers bounced back – a bit – in Week 2. Smith finished 4/6 for 53 receiving yards. But over the years, Smith has been more of a slot receiver. The Rams are middle of the pack against slot receivers in terms of catch rate (73.7%), but they have the eighth-fewest yards per reception (5.68). So, if Goedert is out, in which Smith sees opportunities for completions increase, Smith will be around for targets. BUT, if it's going to be an AJ Brown game, and Dallas Goedert returns, it puts a limit on Smith's production. With Goedert putting in limited practices, you just can't feed that many mouths in this Eagles offence.

Suggested pick:

DeVonta Smith u4.5 Receptions (+100)

 

TE Dallas Goedert

Goedert has been putting in limited practices, so he looks like he's nearly ready for Week 2. If he plays, he should have a good week this week. The Rams allow the sixth most TE receptions per game (6.5) and are in the middle of the pack for TE receiving yards (47) per game. But we shouldn't be worried, because they run a 64.3% in zone coverage. Against zone coverage this season, Goedert has the 12th most receiving yards among TEs. If they aren't able to get the receiving game going in other ways, the Rams showed last season that they are susceptible to allowing opposing TEs to have a big day.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert o3.5 Receptions

Jalen Hurts has not had many passing yards against the Rams but he has not needed to as they have CRUSHED them on the ground having 314 & 285 rushing yards! WOW

Best Bet: Eagles -2.5 -145
Lean: Under 44.5 -120
Score Prediction: Rams 17 Eagles 24

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: Jalen Hurts (Eagles) -140

The Rams' defense has allowed just one TD all season. However, they haven't faced the level of offence that the Eagles carry, but more importantly, the tush push. Hurts has a rushing TD in both games this season, along with one in last year's postseason game against the Rams.

 

Best Pick: Kyren Williams  (Rams) -105

Kyren Williams is facing a tough opponent in Philadelphia in week 3, but he ranks 13th in yardage and 6th in attempts after two weeks. The Rams RB scored 16 TD's last year. The Eagles were strong against the run last year ranking 9th in DEF success rate (63.1%). We're just two weeks into the season, and it's a small sample size, but PHI has not proven to be nearly as stout against the run in comparison to last year. After 2 games, the Eagles rank just 27th in DEF success rate (55.3%). Held without a TD in his first two games of the season, Kyren Williams will be hungry to find the end zone on Sunday. 

 

First Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: AJ Brown (Eagles) +1000

The one TD the Rams have allowed came through the air. And with how poorly AJ Brown has performed this season, they might want to get their disgruntled receiver going early. Brown had a receiving TD against the Rams in the regular season last year.

 

Best Pick: Kyren Williams (Rams) +550

Kyren Williams has yet to find the end zone this year, and he found pay dirt at least once in 13 of 17 games last season. He is long overdue to get a TD, and why not make it the first one of the game.

Parlay 1: (Eagles) +280 odds on bet365

Philadelphia Eagles ML

Jalen Hurts TD

AJ Brown 60+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 2: (Rams) +228 on Draft Kings

Kyren Williams Anytime TD

Puka Nacua 7+ Receptions

 

Parlay 3: (Longshot) +950 on Draft Kings

Jaylen Hurts Anytime TD

Kyren Williams Anytime TD

A.J. Brown 60+ Receiving Yards

Puka Nacua 7+ Receptions

QB Tyrod Taylor

36-year-old Tyrod Taylor steps in for an injured Justin Fields for the Jets. The last time Taylor started was back in 2023 with the Giants, where he started weeks 6, 7, 17, and 18. In those games, he averaged 17.1 fantasy points and 29.6 rushing yards per game. He’ll face a Buccaneers defense that ranks 20^th in EPA/Pass through 2 weeks. They allowed Michael Penix to throw for 298 passing yards but held Stroud to just 207. They rank 9^th in blitz rate through 2 games (31.6%) after ranking 3^rd last season (36.5%). Expect Taylor to get the ball out quickly and possibly use his legs. Penix ran for 21 yards and Stroud ran for 27, both surpassing their rushing line. It’s hard to know how much Tyrod has left in the tank at 36, but he did rush 3 times for 21 yards in relief of Fields last week against the Bills. Since 2021, he’s averaging 4.3 rush attempts and 26.8 rushing yards per game when he sees atleast a 38%+ snap share. That increases to 31.3 yards per game when he has a 90%+ snap share.

Suggested Pick:

Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

30+ Rushing Yards (+265)

40+ Rushing Yards (+550)

 

RB Breece Hall

After rushing 19 times for 107 yards in week 1, Breece was held to just 29 yards on 10 attempts in week 2. He also saw a decline in receiving production, from 38 yards in week 1 to only 9 in week 2. The one positive in week 2 was that Breece accounted for 80% of the backfield’s touches. Breece is the clear number 1 back after offseason worries that this would turn into a committee. The problem is that this Jets offense is inconsistent, so opportunities do not always equate to much production. He’ll face a tough matchup in week 3, the Bucs have the 8^th lowest EPA/Rush allowed through 2 weeks. They have allowed just 76.5 rushing yards per game, 5^th least. They held Bijan to just 24 rushing yards in week 1, that’s impressive. They have, however, been susceptible to RBs in the receiving game. Bijan had 100 receiving yards week 1 and Chubb had 29 week 2. They were similarly susceptible last season as they allowed the 4^th most receiving yards to RB. As 6.5-point underdogs, this should be a positive game script for RB receiving.

Suggested Pick:

Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

30+ Receiving Yards (+180)

40+ Receiving Yards (+350)

Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

 

WR Garrett Wilson

After 7 receptions for 95 yards and a TD in week 1, Wilson caught just 4 of his 8 targets for 50 yards week 2. Through 2 weeks, Garrett is averaging 72.5 receiving yards per game, 2.64 YPRR, has been targeted on 27% of his routes and has a 1^st-read rate of 44%. The Jets coaching staff has tried to be creative in lining Wilson up all over, as he has a 50-50 split out wide and in the slot. He’ll have Tyrod Taylor throwing him the ball, who hasn’t made a start since 2023 with the Giants. Wilson will face a Buccaneers defense that ranks 20^th in EPA/Pass through 2 weeks. Drake London had 8 receptions for 55 yards week 1 against the Bucs and Nico Collins and 3 receptions for 51 yards and a TD against them week 2. WR1s had a combined 24 targets through 2 weeks against this team, but production has not been there. The Bucs rank 9^th in blitz rate through 2 games (31.6%) after ranking 3^rd last season (36.5%). Wilson averaged a 29% TPRR and 35.2% 1^st-read rate against the blitz last season, compared to 23% TPRR and a 30.1% 1^st-read rate when his QB was not blitzed. I expect Wilson to see a lot of volume, but not so sure he turns it into much production.

Suggested Pick:

Over 5.5 Receptions (-130)

Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Under 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110)

 

WR Tyler Johnson

Tyler Johnson was the clear WR2 for the Jets with Josh Reynolds ruled out in week 2. Josh Reynolds remains out in week 3. He ran a route on 93.5% of dropbacks, but didn’t catch his 1 target. Week 1, he caught both of his targets for 31 yards on a 56% route participation rate. The 1 positive is that he was targeted by Tyrod Taylor in the 2 drives that he took over for Justin Fields. Johnson will face a Buccaneers defense that ranks 20^th in EPA/Pass through 2 weeks. Johnson has split his time lining up out wide and in the slot, at 51.2% and 48.8% rates respectively. The Bucs have allowed the 8^th highest target rate to wide alignment and the 9^th highest to the slot. When Johnson saw a 50%+ snap share last season, he averaged 3.6 receptions and 42.2 receiving yards. That was with Rodgers at QB, we’ll see what happens with Tyrod. That being said, a WR2 with a 20.5 receiving line feels low even in a bad offensive situation.

Suggested Pick:

Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

 

TE Mason Taylor

Through 2 weeks, Taylor has an 80.4% route participation rate as a rookie. However, he’s seen just 3 targets, catching 2 of them for 26 yards. He was targeted once in Tyrod’s 2 drives, which is encouraging. Taylor caught that pass for a 5-yard completion. His pre-snap alignments are also encouraging. He’s lined up inline on 55.6% of his routes, in the slot on 28.9% and out wide on 15.6%. It looks like the coaching staff wants to get Taylor involved in the passing game. I’d expect him to receive more targets as the season goes on. Kyle Pitts had 59 receiving yards week 1 against this defense, while Dalton Schultz had 29 in this matchup week 2. Another weapon outside of Wilson is desperately needed in this offense, so maybe Taylor wills step up.

Suggested Pick:

Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

QB Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield continues to prove he is the real deal. While his overall passing yardage is down through the first two weeks, he has still been extremely efficient with a TD to INT ratio of 5:0. The bad news for Tampa Bay is their offensive line is in shambles right now. Tristan Wirfs has returned to practice, but he won’t be available this Sunday, Luke Goedeke is dealing with a foot injury and starting RG Cody Mauch sustained a season-ending knee injury. The good news is the Bucs have OL coaches Kevin Carberry and Brian Picucci, and I’d take them over anybody else in the league to solve this situation. What they did last year and already through the first two weeks in ’25 speaks for itself. This comes as no surprise to anyone, but the Jets defense has been atrocious so far to say the least. They allowed 34 (PIT) and 32 (BUF) points in the first two games of the season and both of those games were at home. New York allows 7.5 YPPA (24th) and 29th in PPA. Now, they will have to travel to Raymond James Stadium for the Buccaneers home opener. Baker Mayfield has already thrown multiple TDs in both of his games he will see an even balance of both man (40.0%) and zone (58.5%) defense. This includes a mix of Cover-1, Cover-2 Man, Cover-3 and Cover-4 coverage schemes where Mayfield has completed 32 of 56 passes (57.1%) for 268 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in ‘25. Although Tampa Bay is coming off a short week, they are thrilled to finally play a home game, and they should be playing in front of a raucous crowd after a 2-0 start. Baker is coming in behind a fragile O-line and while they will make the proper adjustments to put themselves in positive situations, I still have reservations about playing his passing yards. That said, 2 props I love for Mayfield in this game are his rushing yards. Without Wirfs, Baker’s time to throw has been limited to 3.31 seconds, but when Goedeke went down his time dropped to 2.33 seconds. The Bucs QB ran for 39 and 33 yards respectively in his first 2 games, and he will be forced to use his legs at times throughout this game. The Jets just allowed Josh Allen to run for 59 yards on only 6 carries last Sunday so I like Mayfield’s rush yardage and with the speed of TB’s offense he should be good for a pair of TDs.

Suggested Bet:

Baker Mayfield 2+ Pass TD (-154)

Baker Mayfield 15+ Rush Yards (-143)

Baker Mayfield ALT 25+ Rush Yards (+156)

 

RB Bucky Irving

Bucky Irving had another productive week for the Bucs. The 2nd-year RB out of Oregon ran the ball 17 times for 71 yards (4.2 YPC) and caught all 6 of his passing targets for 50 yards. While Rachaad White did find the end zone on Monday, I don’t think there’s anything to be alarmed about on the goal-line, but given production White could see a few more carries. The Jets have allowed the 8th most rush yards (108.0 YPG), but they have proven to be good in defending RBs in the pass game. Last year, the NYJ gave up the 7th fewest receptions and 9th fewest yards out of the backfield. That being said, a good chunk of Mayfield’s offense is going to be made up of quick passing plays and Irving has great hands. The Tampa Bay RB hauled in 47 of his 52 total targets last year and he’s caught all 10 of his targets in ’25. It’s for this reason why I like Bucky’s reception total. It’s hard not to run with Bucky’s rushing yards after the way James Cook carved up the Jets, but I have reservations on his total with this a banged up O-line along with blowout potential. However, I do like his longest rushing yard prop for this week. Last season, the Jets gave up at least one carry of 15+ yards to an opposing team’s lead RB in 7 games. Irving has recorded a 15+ yard carry in 15 of his 20 career NFL starts, and he ranked in the top 5 last year in YAC, while forcing 60 missed tackles.  

Suggested Bet:

Bucky Irving o3.5 Receptions (+107)

Bucky Irving o14.5 Longest Run (-105)

 

WR Mike Evans

Mike Evans has made a living catching touchdowns, and he was called for a rare offensive pass interference on MNF that prevented him from picking up his first one of the season. The TDs for Evans will come but what’s getting lost is he is still Baker Mayfield go-to-guy even with the immediate impact Emeka Egbuka has made. Through his first 2 games of the season, Evans leads all TB wideouts with 19 targets (29.2%) and 43.7% of the team’s air yards. This has resulted in the veteran posting games of 51 and 56 receiving yards. We are used to seeing higher yardage totals from Evans, but he’s drawn some tough assignments early this year, and has an equally difficult one in week 3 when he goes up against Sauce Gardner. He is one of the few bright spots on an otherwise pathetic New York Jets football team. Gardner simply has the God-given talent and ability to lock down opposing team’s top WRs, so much so that QBs in ’25 have only gone his way 9 times out of 70 coverage snaps where Sauce has allowed only 3 catches for 50 yards in two games to start the season. It goes without saying that Mike Evans reigns supreme in going up one-on-one, but he’s started the year slowly because of the lack of opportunities to draw separation due to Mayfield’s limited time to get rid of the football. His matchup with Sauce Gardner, coupled with a likely short, quick passing approach makes Evans a TD dependent player this Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Mike Evans u68.5 Yards (-110)

 

WR Emeka Egbuka

Emeka Egbuka has started off the season in impressive fashion. The rookie WR has found the end zone in each of his first 2 games and so far in ’25 he has caught 8 balls on 13 targets for 96 yards and 3 TDs. His production should continue into week 3 with Sauce Gardner demanding the attention of Mike Evans. I really like Egbuka’s matchup in this game. The Jets have been getting picked apart by receivers out of the slot, allowing an NFL high 122 yards/game. This is no fluke either as new Jets HC Aaron Glenn had major issues as defensive coordinator in Detroit in defending the slot position. This plays right into Emeka’s hands as the Bucs WR has lined up in the slot on 44.2% of his routes. It should be noted that Egbuka is dealing with a slight hip injury, but he returned to practice on Thursday and will be a full go on Sunday. I like his value both in receiving yards and receptions for the reasons I outlined above in Baker Mayfield’s projection. The Tampa Bay offense will consist of a lion share of quick dropbacks, for short passes, screens, slants, etc…

Suggested Bet:

Emeka Egbuka 40+ Receiving Yards Yards (-147)

Emeka Egbuka o3.5 Receptions (-148)

 

TE Cade Otton

Cade Otton did not have a single reception in week one, but Tampa tight end did catch 3 of 4 targets for 25 yards on Monday night. Last week, I projected Otton’s total to be slim because of the absence of Tristan Wirfs and the team’s need to have him working more on the line to aid as a pass and run blocker. The Jets have allowed the 4th most receptions to opposing TE’s after two games and even with both Luke Goedeke and Cody Mauch out for week 3, Payne Durham and Ko Kieft may pick up more protection duties in order to allow Mayfield and Otton to take advantage of New York’s flaws in this area, but you should still proceed with caution here.  

Suggested Bet:

Cade Otton o3.5 Receptions (-104)

Best Bet: 
Lean: 
Score Prediction: 

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) +500

Baker Mayfield gets his money's worth and comes up clutch when it matters. Mayfield has ran the ball 60+ times in each of his first 2 seasons in Tampa, and he has 8 carries for 72 yards already in '25.  Baker will do anything he has to score and he's not afraid to take the ball himself as he's found the end zone 4 times over the L2 years. With a questionable O-line coming into week 3, Mayfield may have to rely on his legs more which should create more chances for him.

 

Best Bet: Tyrod Taylor (Jets) +500

I like this for the same reason that I targeted Tyrod’s rushing yards. He had 3 rush attempts in only 2 drives after taking over for Fields last week. The Bucs love to send the blitz, and I expect them to force Tyrod to scramble. Penix scored a rushing TD against the Bucs week 1 in this same matchup and he’s more of a pocket passer. The value at +500 is great!

 

First Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: Mike Evans (Buccaneers) +650

Despite accounting for 43% of Tampa Bay's red zone targets, Mike Evans has yet to record a TD in '25 TD. Sunday will mark the Bucs first home game of the year and they're facing a Jets team who has allowed opposing QB's to fill the stat sheets. With Tampa Bay dawning their white on white throwback uniforms to celebrate the 50th year anniversary of Buccanners football who better than Mike Evans to put up the first touchdown of the game.

 

Best Bet: Tyrod Taylor (Jets) +3000

Same analysis as above. I could even see the Jets coaching staff dialing up some designed runs near the goal line for Tyrod. He was not scared of contact in his rushing attempts last week in relief for Fields. +3000 for this is a ton of value in my opinion!

Parlay #1: (Jets) +925

Tyrod Taylor Anytime TD

Tyrod Taylor Over 5.5 Rush Attempts

Tyrod Taylor 30+ Rushing Yards

 

Parlay #2: (Buccaneers) +315

Baker Mayfield o1.5 Pass TD's 

Mike Evans Anytime TD 

Emeka Egbuka 40+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #3: (Longshot) +1700

Mike Evans 2+ TD's

Baker Mayfield 25+ Rushing Yards 

 

QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith started strong in Week 1 but crashed back to reality against the Chargers, throwing 3 interceptions and finishing with just 180 yards on 43 attempts. Through two games, the Raiders have leaned pass-heavy, ranking third in PROE at 8.8 percent, but this week brings a difficult matchup against a Washington defense that ranks second in pressure rate at 46.8 percent. Smith has struggled when pressured, averaging only 6.35 YPA with a negative CPOE on such throws. While Jordan Love was able to attack this secondary for nearly 300 yards and 2 touchdowns, Russell Wilson was held to just 168 scoreless yards against them in Week 1. With his accuracy issues carrying over and Washington’s front likely collapsing the pocket, this is a tough spot for Smith to bounce back.

Suggested Play

'U' 238.5 Pass Yards (-115)

 

RB Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty has opened his rookie year in frustrating fashion, averaging just 2.4 yards per touch and 42 scrimmage yards per game through two weeks. After handling an 86 percent snap share in the opener, his role dipped to 57 percent in Week 2 as Zamir White and Dylan Laube mixed in more often. Jeanty still logged 11 carries for 43 yards and added 3 catches for only 1 yard, but his tackle-breaking ability remains evident when he gets touches. This week, the matchup is brutal: Washington is allowing only 3.0 yards per carry, the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (57.0), and has held backs to the eighth-fewest yards after contact per attempt. Josh Jacobs managed just 84 yards on 23 attempts against them, showing how difficult it is to find efficiency against this front. With the workload split and a stingy run defense, Jeanty’s production ceiling looks capped.

Suggested Play:

'U' 55.5 Rush Yards (-120)

 

WR Jakobi Meyers

Jakobi Meyers has been heavily involved early, seeing 12 targets last week and finishing with 6 catches for 68 yards on a 96 percent route share. He’s recorded at least 6 receptions and 68 yards in both games this season, showing strong chemistry with his quarterback. Washington plays man coverage at the third-highest rate (40.5 percent), and Meyers has been effective in those looks, averaging 2.00 YPRR across 22 routes. The Commanders also rank middle of the pack against slot receivers, allowing the 13th-most yards per game (75.5). With volume working in his favor and the ability to create separation underneath before slipping into space, Meyers is well-positioned to rip off at least one chunk gain.

Suggested Play:

'O' 21.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

 

TE Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers played through a knee issue in Week 2 and while his explosiveness looked muted, he still saw 8 targets and ran a route on 79 percent of dropbacks. The Raiders continue to feature him, and he’s now posted back-to-back games with at least 5 receptions. Washington is a favorable opponent for tight ends, deploying man coverage at the third-highest rate (40.5 percent), a look where Bowers has thrived with 2.24 YPRR and a .29 TPRR. The Commanders just gave up 124 yards and a score to Tucker Kraft last week, showing how vulnerable they can be to athletic tight ends who can win after the catch. With red zone usage expected to rise as he works further away from the injury, Bowers is in a strong position to find the end zone.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+180)

QB Jayden Daniels (Announced OUT)

It only took two weeks, and we're starting to see some injuries come down around the NFL, including one to Commanders QB Jayden Daniels. According to head coach Dani Quinn, Daniels is day-to-day with a sprained knee. However, we're choosing to be optimistic as he'll have 10 days in between games to heal. If he does suit up for this matchup, Daniels will take on the Las Vegas Raiders. Through two weeks, the Raiders have struggled defending through the air, allowing the eighth most pass completions (24.5), pass attempts (36.5), and the seventh most passing yards (264.5). Las Vegas has run the second-most zone coverage (90.6%) in the entire NFL, which isn't fantastic for Daniels. Despite facing the ninth most dropbacks against zone coverage, Daniels ranks middle of the pack in yards per attempt (7.17). If Daniels does suit up in this matchup, his injury is too big a risk to expect much from him.

Suggested pick:

Pass

 

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Ladies and gentlemen – more importantly, fantasy managers – it's Jacory Croskey-Merritt. With Austin Ekeler out for the year after his Achilles injury, it's JCM's time to run away with the backfield. In Week 1, JCM performed well with 82 rushing yards and one TD on 10 carries. In Week 2, he saw his usage dip to just 17 rushing yards on four rush attempts. It might not be that easy this week, though, against a Raiders defence, which has allowed the fifth fewest rushing yards (48.5) to opposing RBs per game thus far. However, if Jayden Daniels is out and Marcus Mariota is at the helm, they're likely to lean more on the rookie in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt over rush attempts if around 10-12

 

WR Terry McLaurin

 

It's really hard to go ahead and suggest anything about this Commanders' passing offence without knowing the health of Jayden Daniels. However, we will give you the low-down as if he is to play. It's been a miserable start to the year for McLaurin, considering he held out for the entire training camp, so these few weeks act as his training camp. McLaurin has just 75 receiving yards in his first two games. To put that into perspective, McLaurin had six games with over 100 yards last season – that's how tough it has been for (Not So) Scary Terry. This week, he gets a Raiders defence, which has been terrible against opposing WRs, allowing the third-most (193.5) receiving yards per game. But McLaurin aligns out wide 90% of the time. To outside WRs, the Raiders allow the fifth-most big plays (16.4 yards per reception), but see a dip in terms of yards per target (9.96). If Daniels starts, maybe a look at McLaurin's longest reception is a good look, but if it's Mariota, his under receiving yards is probably the best play.

Suggested pick:

Terry McLaurin over Longest Reception – with Daniels

Terry McLaurin under Receiving Yards – with Mariota

 

WR Deebo Samuel

With McLaurin struggling, Deebo Samuel has been the focal point of this offence. Through two weeks, Deebo has earned 25% of the target share in this Commanders offence. McLaurin out-targeted him in Week 2, but if Mariota is under centre, backup QBs typically like to target the short-area, slot role – ala, Deebo. Through two weeks, Deebo has 17 targets, which is the 15th highest in the entire NFL. Now you insert a backup QB who should target the slot position at an even higher rate when you're facing this Raiders defence that allows a lot of receiving yards, and we've got a matchup made in heaven. Not only do they struggle against outside WRs, but they also allow the sixth-most catch rate (81%) to slot WRs.

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel 5+/6+ receptions

 

TE Zach Ertz

How does this guy just keep going? Not only that, but he got better as the weeks went on. Ertz only went 3/5 for 26 receiving yards with 1 TD in Week 1, but he more than doubled that against the Packers, finishing 6/7 for 64 receiving yards and another TD. He's 11th in receiving yards to TEs and tied for first in TDs. We can no longer overlook him. Like slot WRs, backup QBs target the TE position as they typically sit in the short area of the field. And even if Daniels does play, his knee injury will limit his mobility, thus forcing him to target the middle of the field TE even more.

Suggested pick:

Zach Ertz 4+ Receptions

Raiders get 6 days of rest while the Commanders get 10. The Raiders looked awful against the Chargers and I think they continue to struggle. Daniels is out for the Commanders but Mariota was 2-0 in starts last season as the offense scored 23 & 40 points. Give me Commanders

Best Bet: Commanders ML -155
Lean: Under 43.5 -120
Score Prediction: Raiders 17 Commanders 23

Anytime Touchdown Picks

 

Best Pick: (Commanders): Jacory Croskey-Merritt Anytime TD (+110)

It's not fantastic odds, but JCM already proved he could find the end zone in Week 1. Now with his only real competition being Chris Rodriguez, who was a healthy scratch for the first two games of the season, JCM should have no problem owning the backfield, especially in the red zone.

 

Longshot: (Raiders) Brock Bowers Anytime TD +180

Brock Bowers played through a knee injury in Week 2 but still logged a 79 percent route share and 8 targets, showing his role remains secure. Washington plays man at the third-highest rate (40.5 percent), and Bowers has been productive in those looks with 2.24 YPRR. This defense just allowed 124 yards and a touchdown to Tucker Kraft, and Bowers has the skillset to exploit similar matchups. With steady involvement and red zone usage likely, he has a strong chance to score.

 

First Touchdown Picks

 

Best Pick: (Commanders) Zach Ertz First TD (+1400)

It doesn't even matter who starts this game. Regardless, Ertz is going to get the targets, and this bet honestly looks better if Daniels sits out – which, keep in mind, Ertz has a TD in both games with Daniels under centre.

 

Best Pick: (Raiders) Ashton Jeanty First TD (+600)

Ashton Jeanty hasn’t been efficient to start the year, averaging just 2.4 yards per touch, but the Raiders continue to give him opportunities. He handled 11 carries and 4 targets in Week 2, playing 57 percent of the snaps even as Zamir White and Dylan Laube mixed in. Importantly, Jeanty has already seen red zone usage and has the tackle-breaking ability to convert close to the goal line. Washington’s defense is stingy overall, holding backs to 3.0 YPC and the eighth-fewest rushing yards, but Josh Jacobs still managed to score against them on heavy volume. If the Raiders get inside the 10 early, Jeanty is the most likely candidate to finish the drive.

 

Parlay 1: (Commanders) +odds on bet365

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 10+ Rush Attempts

Deebo Samuel 5+ Receptions

Zach Ertz 3+ Receptions

 

Parlay 2: (Raiders)

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love followed up a controlled Week 1 with his best outing of the young season, throwing for 292 yards and 2 touchdowns at 9.4 yards per attempt in a win over Washington. It marked the first time since 2024 that he eclipsed 30 pass attempts in a regular season game, showing more volume in Matt LaFleur’s scheme. Through two games, Love has been highly efficient with a 7.4 percent touchdown rate, continuing his strong red zone play from last season. The challenge in Week 3 is a Cleveland defense that presents one of the league’s sharpest contrasts: they’ve allowed just 169 passing yards per game, third-fewest in the NFL, but they’ve also given up 5 passing touchdowns across two weeks, tied for second-most. Losing Jayden Reed to a collarbone injury removes one of Love’s top options, but if the Browns continue to bend near the goal line, his efficiency in finishing drives could keep Green Bay’s passing game productive despite the matchup.

Suggested Play:
'O' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)

 

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs has opened the season with back-to-back heavy workloads, logging 19 and 23 carries while scoring in each game. He leads the league with 7 attempts inside the 10-yard line, highlighting his locked-in red zone role, and he’s averaging 21 carries per game despite modest efficiency at 3.6 yards per attempt. Green Bay comes into Week 3 as an 8.5-point favorite, which projects another positive game script for a run-heavy approach. Cleveland’s defense has been elite against the run, allowing just 36.5 rushing yards per game to running backs and holding Derrick Henry to 23 yards on 11 carries last week. That resistance may keep Jacobs’ efficiency in check, but his usage is unlikely to dip. With the Packers in control and committed to riding their lead back, volume is the safest angle.

Suggested Play:
'O' 18.5 Rushing Attempts (–115)

 

WR Romeo Doubs

Romeo Doubs continues to lead Green Bay’s receiver rotation, and with Jayden Reed sidelined for the next several weeks with a collarbone injury, his role becomes even more important. He caught 3 passes for 28 yards and a touchdown on 5 targets in Week 2, playing 74 percent of the snaps. Through two games, Doubs has posted strong efficiency metrics, including 2.34 yards per route run and a 20.6 percent first-read share, showing his importance in Jordan Love’s progressions. The Browns present a challenging test, leaning on Cover 1 at the league’s highest rate of 45.9 percent. That coverage plays into Doubs’ strengths, as he has averaged 2.47 yards per route run and drawn targets on 27 percent of his routes against it. Cleveland has been vulnerable on the perimeter, allowing the 11th-most receiving yards per game to outside receivers (112.5) and already surrendering 4 touchdowns from that alignment. With Reed out and the Browns’ man-heavy scheme on deck, Doubs has a clear opportunity to take on an expanded role as Love’s most reliable wideout.

 

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+205)

 

WR Matthew Golden

With Jayden Reed sidelined, Matthew Golden saw his role expand in Week 2, playing 59 percent of the snaps behind Romeo Doubs but ahead of Dontayvion Wicks and Malik Heath in Green Bay’s rotation. Even with the added opportunity, his production has been limited to just 2 catches for 16 yards on 4 targets and 2 rushes for 15 yards through two games. Golden’s metrics show promise — he ranks first in average separation score at 0.400 and eighth in win rate at 23.3 percent — but the matchup with Cleveland will test him. The Browns use Cover 1 at the league’s highest rate (45.9 percent), and Golden has managed just 0.36 yards per route run and a 14 percent target rate against that coverage. By contrast, Dontayvion Wicks has been far more efficient against man looks. Cleveland’s defense has also limited receivers overall, allowing the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game (132.0) and the ninth-fewest receptions per game (10.0). Golden’s expanded role is clear, but turning it into meaningful production will be difficult against this secondary.

Suggested Play:
'U' 25.5 Receiving Yards (–115)

 

TE Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft has emerged as Jordan Love’s top target, especially with Jayden Reed sidelined for the next two months. He dominated against Washington, posting 6 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown on 7 targets while playing 91 percent of the snaps. Kraft has scored in both games this season and is leading all tight ends with 3.26 yards per route run, showing clear efficiency in addition to volume. His ability to separate has been on display, ranking second in win rate at 14.3 percent through two weeks. The matchup with Cleveland will be a tough test, as the Browns deploy Cover 1 at the highest rate in the league (45.9 percent). Kraft has held his own against that look, averaging 2.33 yards per route run and drawing targets on 29 percent of his routes. The Browns just stifled Mark Andrews to a single 2-yard reception last week, so Kraft’s ability to maintain his hot start against a man-heavy defense will be closely watched.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+210)

QB Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco has opened the season throwing at volume, attempting 45 passes in each of his first two games, but the efficiency hasn’t been there. He managed just 199 yards at 4.4 yards per attempt with 1 touchdown and 1 interception in last week’s loss to Baltimore before being pulled late. Green Bay presents another tough test, ranking fifth in pressure rate at 45.3 percent through two weeks. Under pressure this season, Flacco has completed just 40.6 percent of his passes for 4.19 yards per attempt with a negative completion percentage over expected, showing clear vulnerability when the pocket collapses. The Packers just held Jared Goff to 225 yards with a lone touchdown and an interception on 39 attempts, and their ability to generate consistent pressure could create another long afternoon for Flacco if Cleveland’s protection does not hold up.

Suggested Play:
'U' 226.5 Pass Yards (-115)

 

RB Quinshon Judkins

Quinshon Judkins made an encouraging debut for Cleveland in Week 2, leading the team with 61 rushing yards on 10 carries and adding 3 catches for 10 yards on limited snaps. He handled just 26 percent of the workload, but his efficiency stood out compared to Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson, who split the rest of the backfield touches. Judkins looks poised for a bigger role moving forward, though the challenge in Week 3 is significant. Green Bay has been one of the league’s most disciplined run defenses, giving up only 39 rushing yards per game to running backs, second-fewest in the NFL. They have also limited opponents to just 0.94 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, forcing runners to create everything after first contact. While Judkins’ debut showcased burst and power, sustaining that against a front as stingy as Green Bay’s will be a true test of whether he can emerge as the lead back in this rotation.

Suggested Play:
'U' 44.5 Rushing Yards (–115)

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy has been a steady presence in Cleveland’s passing game, with 8 targets in each of the first two weeks and at least 51 yards in both contests. He led the team again in Week 2 with 8 targets and finished with 4 receptions for 51 yards on an 82 percent route share. The matchup with Green Bay could be more limiting, as the Packers lean on Cover 2 and Cover 3 on over 61 percent of snaps. Against those zone looks, Jeudy has averaged just 0.33 yards per route run and hasn’t generated consistent explosive plays. Green Bay most recently held Deebo Samuel to 44 yards, with his lone touchdown coming late on a short-area score. Jeudy’s consistent volume is there, but against a defense designed to prevent vertical gains, breaking off a long reception looks unlikely.

Suggested Play:
'U' 19.5 Longest Reception (–115)

 

WR Cedric Tillman

Cedric Tillman has found the end zone in both of Cleveland’s first two games, but his overall efficiency has been limited. He caught just 2 of 7 targets for 22 yards and a touchdown last week against Baltimore, despite playing 95 percent of the snaps and running a route on 84 percent of dropbacks. The matchup with Green Bay presents another hurdle. The Packers lean heavily on zone, using Cover 2 and Cover 3 on 61 percent of passing snaps, and Tillman has managed just 1 target and no catches on 24 routes against those coverages so far. Green Bay has also been particularly stingy against outside receivers, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per route run (1.35) and the third-fewest target rate per route run (0.22) to that alignment. Even Washington’s Terry McLaurin, their top perimeter option, was held to 48 yards in this matchup last week. Tillman’s role and volume keep him involved, but the efficiency concerns make it difficult to count on him sustaining his early touchdown streak.

Suggested Play:
'U' 39.5 Receiving Yards (–115)

 

TE David Njoku

David Njoku has yet to break out this season, failing to top 40 yards, 4 receptions, or 6 targets in either of his first two games, while rookie Harold Fannin has been the more efficient option with back-to-back 5+ catch, 48+ yard outings and superior efficiency metrics (1.91 YPRR and 24% TPRR vs Njoku’s 1.03 and 13%). Fannin has thrived against zone, posting 4.56 YPRR on limited routes, but Njoku remains the better red zone bet, especially with Green Bay’s defense already giving up notable tight end production (Zach Ertz 6/64/1 and Sam LaPorta 6/79 in the first two weeks). With the Packers using Cover 2 and Cover 3 on 61% of snaps, Njoku’s size and role near the goal line give him the edge as the best scoring option.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+425)

 

 

Packers look like the SB favorites to me through 2 weeks as that defense has been unreal. Packers will be without Jayden Reed which could casue them issues. I think this is a low scoring game where the Packers defense will make a couple big plays to get the edge. I think Browns cover but Packers win 

Best Bet: Under 41.5 -115
Lean: Browns 'U' 16.5 pts -120
Score Prediction: Packers 20 Browns 14

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Packers) Tucker Kraft +210

Tucker Kraft has quickly stepped into a featured role with Jayden Reed sidelined, scoring in each of his first two games and leading Green Bay with 6 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown last week. He’s been highly efficient with 3.26 yards per route run and has produced well against man coverage, which Cleveland plays at the highest rate in the league. The Browns just held Mark Andrews in check, but Kraft’s usage and red zone involvement keep him positioned as Love’s top scoring threat.

 

Best Bet: (Browns) David Njoku +425

David Njoku hasn’t produced big numbers yet, staying under 40 yards in each of his first two games, while rookie Harold Fannin has flashed with 5+ catches and 48+ yards in both outings. Fannin has shown strong efficiency against zone, but Njoku still profiles as the more likely red zone target, especially with the Packers already giving up a touchdown to Zach Ertz in Week 1 and solid yardage to Sam LaPorta in Week 2. With Green Bay running Cover 2 and Cover 3 on most snaps, Njoku’s size and experience make him the better bet to find the end zone.

 

First Touchdown Picks

Longshot: (Packers) Romeo Doubs +900

Romeo Doubs has been a steady red zone option for Jordan Love, scoring in Week 2 and now stepping into an even larger role with Jayden Reed sidelined. He played 74 percent of the snaps against Washington and owns a strong track record of finishing drives, with 13 touchdowns across 31 career games with Love under center. Cleveland plays Cover 1 at the highest rate in the NFL, and Doubs has been efficient against man coverage, averaging 2.47 yards per route run and drawing targets on 27 percent of his routes. With Green Bay expected to lean on its passing game near the goal line, Doubs is a strong candidate to open the scoring.

 

Longshot: (Browns) Jerry Jeudy +1400

 

 

Parlay #1: (Packers) +2000

Josh Jacobs Anytime TD
Romeo Doubs Anytime TD
Tucker Kraft Anytime TD

 

Parlay #2 (Browns) +1700

David Njoku Anytime TD
Jerry Jeudy Anytime TD

QB Bo Nix

Nix hasn't been fantastic to start this season, although Denver should probably be 2-0 under him. However, they get their biggest test this week against the Los Angeles Chargers, who have looked like one of the best teams on both sides of the ball. Despite allowing the ninth most pass completions (24) and the fourth most pass attempts (41), they are allowing the 18th most passing yards (219) per game. The Chargers surprisingly rank in the bottom half of the league in both man and zone coverage. However, they run cover 3 (36.2%) and cover 4 (21.3%) at top-eight rates so far this season. Against those coverages, Nix is far superior against cover 3 (7.46 yards per attempt on 26 dropbacks) than cover 4 (4.00 yards per attempt on 14 dropbacks). Last season against the Chargers, Nix went 19/33 for 216 passing yards, 2 PTDs and 1 INT, and 29/44 for 263 passing yards, 2 PTDs and 0 INTs. However, this Chargers defence looks better than last, while the Broncos' offence doesn't look as in stride.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix u220.5 Passing Yards (-125)

 

RB JK Dobbins / RJ Harvey

This week, we've combined the two. And first, we'll start with Harvey. The rookie is unpredictable at this time, so we're choosing to forgo an outlook for him, as his usage thus far will change on a week-to-week basis until he emerges as the Broncos' top back.

 

Dobbins, however, has been rolling for this Denver offence. He has carried the ball 71% of the time, and outside of Harvey's 50-yard run, Dobbins has accounted for 82% of the Broncos' RB rushing yards. Fair, right? Anywho. Dobbins gets a revenge game against his 2024 team, the LA Chargers. LA has allowed the fewest rush attempts (11.5) – three fewer than the second-lowest team – and the third fewest (41) rushing yards per game. Dobbins does carry the 10th highest yards per carry () among starting RBs, but against this good of a rush defence, along with the Chargers knowing his strengths and weaknesses, it might be a tough weekend for Dobbins on the ground, especially if they're down and needing to throw to catch up.

Suggested Pick:

JK Dobbins u45.5 Rush Yards (-110)

 

WR Courtland Sutton

Let's just all forget about last week, eh, Sutton Week 2 bettors? The Broncos WR had just one catch on four targets for six receiving yards. But it's kind of hard to blame him, as he still earned the second-highest target share (13.3%) on the entire team. But this week, he has a chance to right the ship against a Chargers team who are allowing the third most targets (25.5), the 12th most receptions (13.5) and the 15th most receiving yards (147.5). Last season against the Chargers, Sutton had four receptions for 58 receiving yards and five receptions for 50 receiving yards. While that's decent production, this week might not be as great for Sutton as the Chargers run the 11th most zone coverage (74.7%). Against zone in 2024, Sutton saw his production actually drop, catching just 60% of his zone targets compared to 68.3% of his man targets. Even his yards per reception decreased by 1.5 in zone compared to man. Also using this year's stats, the Chargers allow the third-lowest completion percentage (45.2%) to outside WRs, where Sutton lines up in 75% of his routes.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton u4.5 Receptions (+105)

 

WR Troy Franklin

Going off what we said about Sutton, Franklin should be in line to have the better day. Through the first two weeks of the season, Franklin leads the Broncos in receptions (12) and target share (21.4%). Last week, he had his best week in the NFL, catching eight of his nine targets for 89 receiving yards and a TD. Notice how the Chargers allow so much through the air, but a low catch rate to outside WRs? Well, that's because they are getting lit up by opposing slot receivers. They have been targeted at the sixth-highest rate in the slot, have allowed the fifth most receiving yards, and a 73.9% catch rate to slot WRs. That is perfect for Franklin to build off of his strong Week 2, as he lines up in the slot 60% of his routes.

Suggested pick:

Troy Franklin o3.5 Receptions (-165) / 40+ Receiving Yards (-125)

Troy Franklin 5+ Receptions (+145)

Troy Franklin 6+ Receptions (+300)

 

TE Adam Trautman

With Engram having been ruled out for this week, here steps in Trautman, who isn't much to right home about. He has just four receptions on the year for 15 receiving yards and 1 TD. Even with Engram involved, Nix didn't rely on his TE much, as Engram had just four catches on six targets for 33 receiving yards. Don't expect much more out of Trautman this week, especially against a good Chargers defence.

Suggested pick:

Pass

QB Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert has been locked in to start the season, completing 19 of 27 passes for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns in last week’s win over the Raiders while also adding 31 rushing yards. The Chargers have leaned heavily on the pass under their new approach, leading the league in pass rate over expected at 12.1 percent through two games. This week, Herbert faces a Denver defense that blitzes more than anyone in the league at 48.6 percent. So far, he’s thrived against pressure, completing 19 of 25 passes for 270 yards and 2 touchdowns when blitzed. The Broncos struggled to contain Daniel Jones in Week 2, allowing 316 passing yards and a rushing score, and Herbert has already proven he can exploit this matchup with 521 passing yards and 3 touchdowns across two meetings with Denver last season.

Suggested Play:
'O' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110)

 

RB Najee Harris 

Najee Harris saw his role expand in Week 2 after being eased in during the opener, finishing with 8 carries for 28 yards and 2 catches for 20 yards on a 31 percent snap share. That matched rookie Omarion Hampton in touches, though Harris was the more efficient of the two backs. Hampton has struggled to get going at 3.3 yards per touch and even botched a handoff with Justin Herbert that resulted in a fumble, leaving the door open for Harris to carve out more work. Week 3 brings a Denver defense that has been a mixed bag against the run — they’ve allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game at 113.5 but are also limiting backs to just 1.19 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, ninth-best in the league. Jonathan Taylor gashed them for 165 yards on 25 carries last week, showing the potential for production if the Chargers’ offensive line can hold up. Harris’ increased involvement suggests he could be a factor, especially if Los Angeles looks to balance the offense against Denver’s aggressive blitz packages.

 

Suggested Play:

'O' 34.5 Rushing Yards

 

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey’s streak of 12 straight games with at least 50 receiving yards ended in Week 2, though he remained efficient by catching all 5 of his targets for 48 yards while running a route on 88 percent of dropbacks. His quick-hitting role could be especially important against Denver, which blitzes at the highest rate in the league at 48.6 percent. Against the blitz, McConkey has averaged 2.22 yards per route run and drawn targets on 26 percent of his routes, showing his ability to get open quickly when quarterbacks are pressured. He has also had success against the Broncos before, recording 43 and 87 yards in their two meetings last season. The only concern heading into this matchup is health, as McConkey missed Wednesday’s practice with an arm injury that will need monitoring. That fact alone makes this a pass, as even if he does play he may see a cut in snaps.

Suggested Play:
Pass due to injury.

 

WR Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen has delivered consistent production since returning to Los Angeles, with at least 7 targets, 5 receptions, 61 yards, and a touchdown in both games so far. He posted 5 catches for 61 yards and a score on 7 targets in Week 2 while logging a 78 percent route share. Denver brings pressure more than any team in the league, blitzing on 48.6 percent of dropbacks, and Allen has excelled in those situations with 3.27 yards per route run and a 36 percent target rate against the blitz. The Broncos have been stingy against slot receivers, giving up the fifth-fewest receptions and 10th-fewest yards to the alignment, but the possibility of Ladd McConkey missing time with an arm injury could funnel even more looks toward Allen as Justin Herbert’s most trusted option.

Suggested Play:
'O' 4.5 Receptions (–120)

 

WR Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston has already reached the end zone three times in his first two games, the most in the league, highlighted by a 60-yard strike from Justin Herbert in Week 2. He finished with 3 catches for 71 yards on 7 targets while playing nearly every snap with a 94 percent route share. Johnston has shown the ability to win downfield, ranking ninth in win rate at the position, and he has been productive against pressure looks with 2.40 yards per route run against the blitz. Denver blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL (48.6 percent), which could give Johnston more chances to create another explosive play. While he may see some coverage from Patrick Surtain, who rarely gives up production, Johnston’s deep role keeps him in position to strike for another score.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+275)

This Chargers team looks very good to start the season. I think they win this game. Give me the Chargers

Best Bet: Chargers -2.5 -120
Lean: Over 46.5 -115
Score Prediction: Broncos 20 Chargers 31

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Chargers) Quentin Johnston +275

Quentin Johnston has already reached the end zone three times in his first two games, the most in the league, highlighted by a 60-yard strike from Justin Herbert in Week 2. He finished with 3 catches for 71 yards on 7 targets while playing nearly every snap with a 94 percent route share. Johnston has shown the ability to win downfield, ranking ninth in win rate at the position, and he has been productive against pressure looks with 2.40 yards per route run against the blitz. Denver blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL (48.6 percent), which could give Johnston more chances to create another explosive play. While he may see some coverage from Patrick Surtain, who rarely gives up production, Johnston’s deep role keeps him in position to strike for another score.

 

Best Pick: (Broncos): Troy Franklin TD (+300)

I mean this line is tremendous value considering how much he was used last week, and in such a good slot matchup like the Chargers. LA has yet to allow a receiving TD, but that's not set to last, especially when they are allowing so much production to the slot position.

 

First Touchdown Picks

Longshot: (Chargers) Keenan Allen +1300

Keenan Allen has reestablished himself as Justin Herbert’s go-to option, opening the season with touchdowns in back-to-back games. He saw 7 targets in Week 2, converting 5 of them for 61 yards and a score while logging a 78 percent route share. The Broncos blitz more than any team in football at 48.6 percent, and Allen has thrived against that look, averaging 3.27 yards per route run with a massive 36 percent target rate. If Ladd McConkey misses this matchup with an arm injury, Herbert could lean even more on Allen as the primary short-to-intermediate option and red zone target. Given his steady involvement and scoring streak, he’s a strong candidate to strike first.

 

Best Pick: (Broncos) Marvin Mims First TD (+1800)

Mims has yet to really be utilized for his deep threat ability. And against a great Chargers team, the Broncos will look to attack the deep ball early to get an early lead. If they were to take this aggressive strategy, Mims has the burning speed that can help the Broncos accomplish this.

Parlay #1: Chargers +625

Chargers ML

Najee Harris Anytime TD

Keenan Allen 'O' 4.5 Receptions

 

Parlay 2: (Broncos) +325 odds on bet365

JK Dobbins u51.5 Rushing Yards

Troy Franklin 4+ Receptions

Troy Franklin 40+ Receiving Yards

QB Spencer Rattler

The Saints are 0-2 but Spencer Rattler turned in a very strong performance last week vs San Francisco, where he completed 25 of 34 PA for 207 yards while tossing 3 TD passes. To the surprise of many the Saints have actually played competitively in both of their games to begin the season, a credit to Kellen Moore. However, a deeper look into the New Orleans offense unveils why they are 7.5 point favorites this week. For starters, they are going out west to face Seattle team who is very difficult to play on the road with the 12th man. While this is a much bigger game for the 0-2 Saints there are some glaring facts that make me wonder how the Seahawks are only giving 7.5. NO has certainly worked hard on offense, but low expectations and and their relatively close games have masked just how bad this offense really is. Two weeks into the season the Saints rank 26th in PPG (17.0) and 27th in YPP (4.6). Another factor to consider is both of these games were at home and played indoors, making these numbers even more underwhelming. Spencer Rattler's numbers at home aren't exactly great, but take him out of New Orleans and you have what we call a dumpster fire my friend. Rattler has made 8 career NFL starts, and on the road he's been downright atrocious. In 3 road starts w/ Rattler under center the Saints lost 26-8 (LAC), 34-0 (GB) and 27-19 (TB). Even worse, Rattler's QBR in those games were 25.0, 16.5 and 53.9 respectively. The bottom line is Rattler is going to have his hands full in Seattle this Sunday as the Seahawks rank 12th in EPA and 10th in success rate. will have his hands full against the Seahawks in Seattle.The Seahawks allow just 17.0 PPG (7th fewest), they've already forced 4 TO's (3rd most) and rank 10th in success rate allowed (41.3%). And the cherry on top is that SEA leads the NFL in pressure rate (49.2%), despite a blitz rate of just 13.1% (2nd lowest). They've allowed just 17 points (vs SF, @ PIT) in each of their first 2 games this season.

Suggested pick:

Spencer Rattler 1+ Interception (-145)

Spencer Rattler u202.5 Pass Yards (-112)

 

RB Alvin Kamara

Despite losing a fumble last week, Alvin Kamara put together another nice week and we hammered his reception total as expected for a bargain basement deal. He finished the game with 21 carries for 99 and racked up another 21 yards on 6 catches. Kamara had 64.8% of the touches out of the backfield in week 1, but last Sunday that skyrocketed to 81.9%. Seattle has done an excellent job so far this season in handling the run. Through the first 2 weeks of the season they are allowing an average of just 3.4 (8th fewest) YPC to opposing RB's. But much like last week, Kamara's value comes by way of his reception totals. After just 2 targets in week 1 the Saints RB was back to his old self, collecting 6 receptions. This is one area Seattle struggles with because they employ a deeper zone to limit big plays which benefits the short passing game, espcially for pass-catching RB's. In 6 games with Rattler, Kamara has secured 5, 6, 6, 4, 2, 6 receptions. In their home opener the Seahawks allowed Christian McCaffrey to haul in 9 balls for 73 yards, then Pittsburgh RB's combined to catch 7 passes for 102 yards. Kamara is tied for the 3rd most routes ran as a RB and is always lethal in the receiving game. This is one of my favorite props across the entire NFL this week.

Suggested Pick:

Alvin Kamara o3.5 Receptions (-135)

Alvin Kamara ALT 5+ Receptions (+152)

Alvin Kamara ALT 6+ Receptions (+297)

 

WR Chris Olave

Chris Olave caught 7 passes for 54 yards to open the season and last Sunday he followed it up with 6 catches for 54 yards. Spencer Rattler has targeted Olave at a 30.9% rate (10th highest among WR) to begin the season. The obvious question here is how is he catching so many balls but accumulating so few yards. The answer here relies in the problem, and that is Kellen Moore's lack of trust and confidence in starting QB Spencer Rattler. Moore has consistently referred to Rattler's ability to "manage" the game. But, that's really just a nice way of saying he's doing just enough to allow us to stay competitive from week to week without relying on him to take any chances whatsoever. In essence, please don't turn the ball over or do anything stupid and keep us in the game for as long as possible. We are not likely to see a big game out of Olave, but the way Seattle defends feeds into a typical Saints offensive script which is means playing ultra conservatively and matriculate the ball up the field. It could be a grind, but I think Olave gets to 5 receptions on Sunday, given New Orleans is a road underdog with a strong possibility for garbage time.

Suggested pick:

Chris Olave 04.5 Receptions (-177)

 

WR Rashid Shaheed

Seattle plays a zone defense that prevents teams from connecting on big plays, rather forcing them into a short passing game. This is not going to be a good matchup for Shaheed who primarily relies on his lighting fast legs to pick big chunks up in the passing game. The Saints WR did finish last Sunday with 4 catches for 52 and a TD, but after running a route on 97.4% of his snaps in week one, Shaheed saw that number drop significantly to 77.5% on Sunday. What really hurts him is the Seahawks allow the lowest catch rate (45.6%) to opposing wide receivers through the first two weeks of the season. This is an easy and wise spot to fade Shaheed.

Suggested pick:

Rashid Shaheed u44.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

 

TE Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson is going to be a safety valve all season for Spencer Rattler within their grandmotherly paced offense in '25. The New Orleans TE was on the field for every single drop back in week 1 and 92.6% in week 2. Most impressive is that Johnson caught 5 of 9 passes for 49 yards and a TD last Sunday against a 49ers defense that has made a living in locking down opposing tight ends for the last several years. Johnson is being targeted roughly 27.0% of the time on offense and he's already run a league-high 84 routes this year. Among starting TE's, Johnson has been targeted 3x in the red zone and 2x in the end zone. At 6-4, 231 pounds, Johnson is big, strong body that is tough to defend and Seattle has allowed 108 yards on 16 catches that have resulted in a pair of TD's through the first 2 weeks of the season.

Suggested pick:

Juwan Johnson 40+ Receiving Yards (-141)

QB Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold showed clear improvement in Week 2, completing 22 of 33 passes for 295 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, a notable step up from his Week 1 line of 16 completions on 23 attempts for just 150 yards and no scores. Through two weeks, he sits with the 21st-highest QBR in the league (51.0), which isn’t great but suggests room to build on his progress. One encouraging factor has been the play of his offensive line, which has provided strong pass protection, ranking 22nd in pass-blocking grade and giving him more opportunities to operate clean pockets. That advantage could be magnified this week, as New Orleans ranks dead last in pass rush grading, meaning Darnold should have extra time to survey the field and push the ball when necessary. The Saints’ pass defense has been leaky in other areas as well, allowing 221 passing yards per game, 6.5 yards per attempt, and a pristine 5-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio to opposing quarterbacks. Despite posting the 5th-highest sack rate in the league (10%), they’ve still surrendered the 5th-highest passer rating, highlighting their vulnerability in coverage. Much of the damage has come underneath, as New Orleans has allowed just a 4.4% deep throw rate, forcing opponents to work the short game. With Darnold trending upward and facing a defense that has struggled to stop quarterbacks despite generating some pressure, this sets up as an ideal get-right spot for him to put together his best performance of the season so far.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 19.5 Passing Completions (-120)

 

RB Kenneth Walker III
After Zach Charbonnet dominated the workload in Week 1, the Seahawks shifted to a much more balanced backfield split in Week 2. Kenneth Walker logged 13 carries on 13 snaps, while Charbonnet handled 15 carries on 16 snaps, but Walker continued to own the passing-down role, playing 10 passing snaps compared to Charbonnet’s zero and catching his lone target for 13 yards. Walker looked far more explosive this time around, racking up 205 rushing yards on just 25 attempts (8.2 yards per carry) and punching in a touchdown. He averaged an impressive 4.69 yards after contact per attempt, ripped off four runs of 10+ yards, and now boasts a 13% explosive run rate on the season. Truthfully, Walker looks like the better pure runner when healthy, though the coaching staff seems intent on splitting touches to keep him available long-term. This week’s matchup against New Orleans provides a tougher test, as the Saints rank 13th in run defense grading and have shown the ability to limit production—allowing 108 combined yards to James Conner and Trey Benson in Week 1 but holding Christian McCaffrey to just 55 yards on 13 carries in Week 2. Even so, I like Walker’s chances to deliver again here, as the projected positive game script should favor the ground game, and New Orleans’ defense has forced the highest checkdown rate in the league, keeping Walker involved in multiple phases of the offense.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 93.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-115)

RB Zach Charbonnet
Zach Charbonnet’s Week 2 performance was a complete reversal from the promise he showed in Week 1, as he struggled mightily to generate anything on the ground. Despite receiving 15 carries, he managed only 10 rushing yards, which translates to a brutal 0.7 yards per carry. His inefficiency was further reflected in the advanced metrics, as he earned a subpar 48.0 rushing grade and produced just 1.73 yards after contact per attempt, failing to break through tackles or create extra opportunities for himself. What’s particularly concerning is that this wasn’t just a matter of game script or usage—he was given meaningful work, but the production simply wasn’t there. Adding to the uncertainty is his health, as Charbonnet enters this week with a questionable designation that could limit his availability or reduce his role even further if he’s active. When you combine his inefficiency, lack of explosive plays, and the possibility of being banged up, the risk far outweighs any potential reward. Until he shows signs of bouncing back, he’s a player I’m staying away from entirely in this matchup, as both the floor and ceiling look far too low to trust.

Suggested Picks

PASS

 

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s breakout has finally arrived, and it feels like the payoff for those of us who believed in him from the very beginning. Right now, he’s not just producing at a high level—he’s dominating usage in a way few receivers ever do. JSN leads all wideouts in target share (41.1%), team yardage percentage (51.0%), and air yard percentage (60.6%), numbers that underscore just how central he has become to the offense. Of course, it’s fair to assume those marks won’t remain this extreme across an entire season, but the narrative that he might not translate into a high-end NFL weapon should be put to bed. The volume and efficiency are both spiking, and his game is evolving to the point where betting against him feels like a mistake. Even with his lines climbing, I’m still tempted by the overs, simply because his role and matchup continue to suggest ceiling outcomes. This week, New Orleans presents an interesting test, but one that still tilts in JSN’s favor. The Saints run zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL (76.3%), a style that aligns well with JSN’s strengths. Against zone, he’s been highly effective, holding a 74.8% air yardage share, a 9.4 average depth of target, a staggering 52.9% target rate, and an 11.21 yards-per-reception clip. Those metrics highlight his ability to consistently find soft spots, command looks, and create chunk gains in coverage that is designed to limit explosive plays. The Saints’ defense is solid overall, but it has already shown cracks against receivers with polished route-running and spatial awareness. In Week 1, Marvin Harrison Jr. managed 5 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown, and in Week 2, Jauan Jennings posted 5 catches for 89 yards and a score. Both players thrive in ways similar to JSN—finding leverage against zone and turning opportunities into production. If those performances are any indication, Smith-Njigba is poised to thrive once again. With his usage trending upward, his efficiency against zone defenses proven, and the Saints showing vulnerability to comparable receivers, this feels like yet another opportunity for JSN to cement his arrival as a true breakout star.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 73.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

WR Cooper Kupp
We finally saw Cooper Kupp assert himself as the clear No. 2 option in this offense last week, hauling in 7 of 9 targets for 90 yards. While he still doesn’t quite look like the dominant version of himself from past seasons, it’s clear that Darnold leaned on him in this matchup. Kupp lined up in the slot on roughly half of his snaps, but that alignment may not work to his advantage this week. Through two games, New Orleans has been tough on slot receivers, allowing just the 22nd-most receiving yards per game from the slot (59.0). Given that context, this feels like a potential fade spot for Kupp despite the strong performance. Adding to the concern, the Saints’ stinginess against slot usage could be paired with a run-heavy game script from this offense, further limiting his opportunities. Perhaps most troubling, Kupp has yet to draw a single red zone target this season, making it difficult to project touchdown upside even if the volume is there.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions (-130)

 

TE A.J. Barner
I came into the season with fairly high expectations for Barner as he stepped into the TE1 role, but through two weeks he’s been a disappointment. He’s managed just 3 catches on 5 targets for 26 yards and a touchdown, and while he’s on the field plenty, his usage is being impacted by pass-blocking assignments that cut into his opportunities. On the positive side, he does lead the team’s pass catchers with two red zone targets, but the overall production has been underwhelming. The Saints present a favorable matchup on paper—they’ve allowed the sixth-most receptions (14), fourth-most targets (21), and ninth-most receiving yards (120) to tight ends so far this season, a big shift from their stingier performance last year. Even so, the betting lines already account for that, and given Barner’s slow start, this feels like a situation better avoided. If I were to play it, I’d lean toward the under, but ultimately, I’d rather pass and find value elsewhere.

Suggested Picks
PASS or ‘U’ 2.5 Receptions (-135)

The Saints are averaging just 17.0 PPG, while Seattle is allowing just 17.0 PPG. Enter, Spencer Rattler who in 3 career road starts has produced point totals of 8, 0 and 19 points for New Orleans with an average QBR of 31.8. Rattler is going to have his hands full in Seattle this Sunday as the Seahawk have already forced 4 TO's (3rd most), while ranking 10th in success rate allowed (41.3%). Lastly, Seattle  leads the NFL in pressure rate (49.2%), despite a blitz rate of just 13.1% (2nd lowest). The Seahawks and their daunted 12th man will dominate the Saints at Lumen Field this Sunday.

Best Bet: Seahawks -6.5 (-142)
Lean: Under 44.5 (-178)
Score Prediction: Seahawks 31, Saints 10

 

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: (Saints): Alvin Kamara TD (+115)

To be completely transparent I don't have much faith in any Saints player finding the end zone on Sunday, but Alvin Kamara does have an elite matchup this week at Seattle. He is essential in both the running and passing game for New Orleans and has already found the end zone once this year.

Best Pick: (Seahawks) Kenneth Walker III (-155)
No Charb? Sign me up. He should be looking at a full workload and could cash us via the rush or the pass game.

First Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: (Saints) Juwan Johnson (+1500)

I feel like we're getting insane value on this play if the Saints can manage to find a way to get the first scoring opportunity. Juwan Johnson has scored 2 TD's, he ranks in the top 2 of the NFL in both end zone & red zone targets and of the 4 touchdowns allowed by Seattle, two of them have come by way of the TE position.

 

Longshot Touchdown Picks

Longshot: (Seahawks) A.J. Barner +2000
Barner hasn't been involed a ton this season but does has a couple redzone targets in 2025 and is out there plenty. TE targets for tuddies is never a bad option!

Parlay 1: (Saints) +200 on Draft Kings

New Orleans Saints u17.5 Points

Alvin Kamara 4+ Receptions

 

Parlay 2: (Seahawks) +357 on FanDuel
SEA Seahawks -6.5
Kenneth Walker III TD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 80+ Yards

Parlay 3: (Longshot) +13884 on FanDuel

Seattle Defense Anytime TD 

New Orleans u0.5 Points Scored 

No writeups but here are the props we like

QB Kyler Murray
25+ Rush Yds -139
40+ +200

RB James Connor 
'U' 51.5 Rec Yds -114

 

WR Marvin Harrison
4+ Rec -185

TE Trey McBride 
60+ Rec Yds -121
6+ Rec -184

QB Mac Jones

Mac Jones stepped in for the 49ers in Week 2 and delivered a strong performance against the Saints, completing 26 of 39 passes for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns (7.2 YPA). He managed the offense well, taking what the defense gave him, and showed rhythm in the quick passing game. With Brock Purdy sidelined multiple weeks, Jones now gets a full week of prep as the starter. The Cardinals rank 28th in pressure rate (23.1 percent) and allow the sixth-most passing yards per game (271.0). They were just shredded for 328 yards and 3 scores by Bryce Young, and Jones’ accuracy should allow him to find plenty of soft spots in this defense. The volume and matchup both point toward steady production here.

 

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 217.5 Passing Yards (-120)

 

RB Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey handled 19 touches in Week 2, finishing with 55 rushing yards on 13 carries and adding 52 yards and a touchdown on 6 receptions. He played 78 percent of the snaps, underscoring his central role in the offense even with a QB change. With Mac Jones under center, expect heavy involvement again, both as a runner and receiver. The Cardinals have been vulnerable to backs, giving up 2.78 adjusted yards before contact per attempt and 5.4 yards per carry to Arizona’s RBs last week, along with a receiving touchdown to James Conner. This is another spot where CMC’s dual-threat usage should carry him to a big day.

 

Suggested Play:

 ‘O’ 112.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings played a season-high 87 percent of snaps in Week 2 and turned his opportunity into 6 catches for 77 yards on 9 targets. With George Kittle sidelined and Ricky Pearsall commanding defensive attention, Jennings was a reliable intermediate target for Mac Jones. The Cardinals have already allowed 5/71/1 to Marvin Harrison Jr. and have shown vulnerability against secondary receiving options. If Jennings maintains this expanded role, he’s in line to be a consistent factor in the passing game and a scoring threat in the red zone.

 

Suggested Play: 

Anytime TD (+180)

 

WR Ricky Pearsall

Ricky Pearsall took a backseat to Jauan Jennings and Christian McCaffrey in Week 2, recording 4 catches for 56 yards on 6 targets while playing 86 percent of snaps. He’s now caught at least 4 passes in six straight games and has topped 56 yards in four consecutive contests. The Cardinals lean on Cover 3 and Cover 4 looks for over 60 percent of their snaps, and Pearsall has averaged 3.68 YPRR and 0.29 TPRR against those coverages. With defenses tightening on Jennings after last week’s performance, Pearsall could regain his role as the big-play threat in this offense.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-120)

This Cardinals defense has not been good against bad teams and the 49ers defense has been decent. I think this is going to come down who can get the crucial stops and I trust the 49ers @Home

Best Bet: 49ers ML -134
Lean: Over 44.5 -110
Score Prediction: Cardinals 20 49ers 31

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: (Cardinals) Marvin Harrison +`195 

Best Bet: (49ers) Jauan Jennings Anytime TD +180

Jauan Jennings missed practice Wednesday with multiple injuries, leaving his Week 3 status in question. If he suits up, though, he has a chance to make an impact. San Francisco leaned on him early against the Saints before his exit, and his physical style fits well against Arizona’s zone-heavy defense (Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 62 percent of dropbacks). Jennings has consistently been used as a chain-mover and red zone option when healthy, and his role could be amplified with the Cardinals focused on Christian McCaffrey and Ricky Pearsall.

First Touchdown Picks

Marvin Harrison First TD +1100

Best Bet: (49ers) Ricky Pearsall +1400

Ricky Pearsall has quietly become one of San Francisco’s most reliable pass catchers, recording at least 4 receptions in six straight games and topping 50 yards in four straight. With Jauan Jennings banged up and George Kittle sidelined, Pearsall is in line for more early looks in a game where the Cardinals deploy Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 62 percent of dropbacks. Pearsall has thrived against those coverages, averaging 3.68 yards per route run. His ability to separate quickly and stretch the field makes him a prime candidate for a scripted opening drive target near the red zone.

 

Parlay #1 (+192)
Kyler Murray 25+ Rush Yds 
Trey McBride 6+ Rec 
Trey McBride 50+ Rec Yds

 

Parlay #2 (+520)

Christian McCaffery 'O' Rushing TD

Jauan Jennings ATD

QB Dak Prescott

Now Week 2 is more the Dak we expected. After having smaller numbers against a tough Philadelphia Eagles defence (188), Prescott went 38/52 for 361 passing yards and two PTDs. Granted, that was against a New York Giants defence, but it's good to see him perform against a lesser defence. This week, Prescott faces off against the Bears, who allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs last season. This season, the Bears are on pace to be around the same as last year, allowing the eighth fewest pass completions (18) and the second fewest pass attempts (24), but the 12th highest passing yards (238.5) per game. However, they struggle to keep teams out of the end zone through the air, allowing 3.5 passing TDs per game, which is one full TD more than the second team. Now, that's heavily skewed by Jared Goff's five TD performance last week. But Prescott has a similar throwing profile to Goff, so why couldn't Dak do the same? Chicago runs man and zone coverage at top 15 rates, but runs the fourth most cover 2 (26.4%) and the second most cover 2 man (9.4%). Diving into Dak's stats against cover 2 from this season, Prescott averages the sixth-highest yards per attempt (8.83) against cover 2. Which, in turn, should lead to a big Prescott day on Sunday.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott o260.5 Passing Yards (-110)

 

RB Javonte Williams

Alright, fine, you sold me, Javonte. I'm in on you in 2025. Sure, you're coming off an easy matchup against the Giants, and one with a Jalen Carter-less Eagles, you've come through both weeks. He nearly rushed for over 100 (97) last week, adding another TD on the ground. This week against the Bears, poses as another matchup in which Javonte should succeed. Chicago picked up where they left off last season, allowing the third-most rushing yards (123) per game, where they allowed the fifth-most last season. 64.5 might seem like a stretch for a guy who has just two weeks of success, the Bears allowed Jordan Mason (68), David Montgomery (57) and Jahmyr Gibbs (94) to go over their rushing yards this season. So, it's a good bet that Javonte Williams will have a strong showing yet again and go over his rushing yard line doesn't seem like a stretch.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams o64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR CeeDee Lamb

Lamb got his revenge for his poor Week 1 final drive as he beat down on the Giants, finishing with nine receptions on 11 targets for 112 receiving yards. This week should be another strong week for Lamb as he's up against a Bears defence that allows the ninth-most receiving yards (169) to opposing WRs per game. Not only that, but they also allow the fourth-highest catch rate at 78.3%. The Bears run about league median in zone coverage, but run the 13th most man coverage (28.3%) in the league. Chicago runs the most cover 2 man (9.4%) in the league, which should be well recognized by Dallas, as they have faced the most cover 2 man in the league. Unfortunately, Lamb has just one target that went for 10 yards, despite the throw being four yards behind the line of scrimmage. This was likely a WR screen of some sort with such a low aDoT. And if the Cowboys are set to face cover 2 man at an even higher rate this week, they may use Lamb with those quick dumpoffs even more, which leads us to considering his receptions line over his receiving line.

Suggested pick:

CeeDee Lamb o6.5 Receptions (+100)

 

WR George Pickens

Pickens finished last week with five receptions on eight targets for 68 receiving yards and a TD. While he did have a 27-yard reception, there really hasn't been that long reception from the deep threat the Cowboys brought him in for. However, that should change this week. I noticed that while the Bears allow the ninth-most receiving yards per game, they only allow the fourth-fewest receptions (9) per game. Which makes sense as they allow the third most yards per reception (13.25) and the most yards per route run (2.13). Pickens leads the team in aDoT (14.5) while also corraling five of six of his contested catches. It's only a matter of time for Pickens to break the big one, and I think he does that this week.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens o23.5 Longest Reception (-115)

George Pickens 30+ Longest Reception (+180)

George Pickens 40+ Longest Reception (+450)

 

TE Jake Ferguson

 

Ferguson is coming off a nine-reception, 12-target and 78 receiving yard game last week against the Giants. In fact, Ferguson actually led the entire Cowboys offence in target share (23.1%) in Week 2. This week might be different, however, as the Bears rank in the middle of the pack in receptions allowed (5) to opposing TEs, but eighth-fewest receiving yards (37) per game. Ferguson runs most of his routes out of the slot, rather than inline. Against slot receivers, the Bears allow the eighth-highest catch rate (78.6%) and the 14th-most receiving yards (73) per game. Ferguson has 14 receptions through the first two weeks of the season, and in this matchup, he should continue that trend.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson o4.5 Receptions (+100)

QB Caleb Williams

Despite the 0-2 start to the season, I haven't hated the way Caleb Williams has played. He has gone over 200 passing yards in both games, totalling three PTDs, while adding 85 rushing yards and a score on the ground. And this week presents his best matchup thus far against a Dallas Cowboys defence that allows the seventh most completions (24.5) on the 16th most pass attempts (32), but the third-highest passing yards (301) per game. So far this season, Dallas has run the second-most zone coverage (92.3%). Williams has faced the seventh-most dropbacks in zone coverage, with a 6.79 yards per attempt to show for it. So, Williams should be in line for the biggest week of the season thus far, especially when they just allowed Russell Wilson to throw for 450 passing yards. Not to mention this game has the third-highest over/under set on the week. However, considering the failing Bears run game, as well as Williams seems more willing to rush the ball in this new Ben Johnson offence, we're suggesting a new prop this week. Williams has had 268 and 234 passing and rushing yards in his two appearances this season, and the Cowboys not only allow the third most passing yards, but also the third most rushing yards to opposing QBs.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams o239.5 Pass & Rush Yards (-110)

 

RB D'Andre Swift

So, how do we read into Swift's usage last week? In Week 1, Swift had all 17 of the RB carries, finishing with 96% of the opportunity share. In Week 2, he saw his carries dip to just 12, with Kyle Monangai getting seven of the rush attempts. However, was that just due to the blowout? Or is there a passing of the torch? Well, I wouldn't say that just yet, as six of Monangai's seven carries came when the score was 52-21. So, you can likely read that as just garbage time usage. This week, Swift gets the Cowboys' rushing defence, which has allowed the 13th-fewest (80) rushing yards per game. However, where they have struggled this year is through the air, where they've allowed the seventh-most receptions (5.5) per game to opposing RBs. Not only that, but Swift has earned 67% of the RB targets and 75% of the RB receptions. In a game predicted to be close, with a one-point spread and a high over/under, Swift should be utilized in the passing game.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift o2.5 Receptions (-125)

 

WR DJ Moore

DJ Moore has been fine this season, but it's apparent that he is losing his No. 1 role in the receiving game to a second-year breakout, Rome Odunze. Through the first two weeks, Moore has earned just a 16.2% target share, which is tied for second with Olamide Zaccheaus...let that sink in. This week, Moore faces the Cowboys, who allow the most receiving yards (226.5) and the highest catch rate (83.3%) in the entire NFL. Dallas also runs zone coverage at the second-highest rate (92.3%) in the league, which last year Moore would have eaten up, having a 77.3% catch rate. But this year Moore hasn't had the same success, with just 33 receiving yards through two weeks. With all this being said, it's still the Cowboys, and Moore is still among the top WRs in the league, and is hungry to get more opportunities in the offence this season. The number on his receiving yards line is a little overreactionary at its current price, especially when considering the Cowboys allow the most receiving yards to receivers lined up out wide.

Suggested pick:

DJ Moore o54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Rome Odunze

Okay, Odunze has officially arrived. Last week, Odunze had seven catches on 10 targets for 128 receiving yards – the highest total of his career. And he has a perfect opportunity to build off that against the poor Cowboys pass defence. Against zone coverage, Odunze has the highest PFF receiving grade of his Bears teammates, and laps the WR room in receiving yards with 110 – 67 more than Moore's 33. Odunze and Moore are similar in that they line up all over the field; however, Odunze still lines up out wide on 72% of his routes. To outside WRs, the Bears allow the second-highest catch rate (80.8%). And with Odunze earning 27.9% of the entire Bears' target share, he should have an even higher involvement rate in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Suggested pick:

Rome Odunze o4.5 Receptions (-140)

 

TE Cole Kmet / Colston Loveland

While it's true that the Cowboys' pass defence is among the worst in the league, they've actually been fairly decent at defending TEs. They allow the 10th fewest receiving yards (39.5). However, they have allowed a very high catch rate to the position, allowing a reception on 12 of their 13 TE targets against. So, which one of the Bears TEs do we target? Well, Kmet has earned 87.4% of the snaps, while Loveland still hovers around the 50-60% range. Kmet has earned an 8.8% target share, while Loveland has just 4.4% – and it went even lower last week at 3.1% when he had just one target. Regardless, neither guy has been involved. However, the Cowboys have allowed a 100% catch rate (8/8) to inline receivers this season. Loveland ran 66.7% of his routes inline last week, while Kmet ran just 43.6% from the inline position. Based on that, and how he was shut out last week, maybe it's time for the rookie to get more involved in the offence.

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland o1.5 Receptions (-145)

As you can tell by some of our bets, we are expecting a high-scoring, back-and-forth game between the Cowboys and Bears. Both have proven to have successful offences, while the defences have struggled throughout the first two weeks on defence. In Week 1, the Cowboys and Eagles were tracking to crush their high over/under total, but the stoppage saw both teams combine for just three points in the second half. But in Week 2, the Cowboys and Giants obliterated the line, scoring 77 points. Due to a fourth quarter defensive collapse by the Bears, they allowed the Vikings to come back and go over the total. And, well, the Lions cleared the over/under on their own against the Bears' defence in Week 2. We haven't liked what we've seen from this Bears defence to warrant backing them in this contest, even if they are at home.

 

Best Bet: Over 49.5
Lean: Cowboys ML
Score Prediction: Cowboys 31 - Bears 24

Anytime Touchdown Picks

 

Best Pick: (Cowboys): Javonte Williams Anytime TD (+100)

Not fantastic odds, but Javonte has been a TD machine this season. He scored two in Week 1 and one in Week 2. He's having a resurgence with his new team, and now against the Bears, who have allowed three TDs to opposing RBs through the first two weeks of the season, that shouldn't stop this week.

 

Best Pick: (Bears): DJ Moore TD (+145)

The smart play here is certainly Odunze. However, he has scored three TDs through the first two weeks, while Moore has yet to find the endzone. So let's be a bit contrarian with this TD pick, especially against this Cowboys defence, which has allowed the third most receiving TDs (1.5) to WRs per game.

 

First Touchdown Picks

 

Best Pick: (Cowboys) George Pickens First TD (+900)

Pickens found the end zone last week, but as we mentioned, he has yet to be a force with the deep ball. Sure, it might not happen right away, but with how the Bears struggle in terms of yards per reception, Prescott could toss up an early prayer to Pickens to start off what should be a high-scoring affair.

 

Best Pick: (Bears) Kyle Monangai First TD (+1400)

Swift has been dominating the RB touches for Chicago; however, he hasn't done much with them yet. Swift had all 17 of the rush attempts in Week 1, but in Week 2, Monangai worked his way into the offence more, earning seven of the 19 touches. He is the heavier, power back, who will likely get the goal line work, especially if Swift struggles on that first drive.

Parlay 1: (Bears) +275 odds on bet365

Caleb Williams 250+ Passing Yards

DJ Moore 50+ Receiving Yards

Rome Odunze 50+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 2: (Cowboys) +225 odds on bet365

Dak Prescott 250+ Passing Yards

Javonte Williams TD

George Pickens o23.5 Longest Reception

QB Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes enters Week 3 leading the league in scrambles (13) and scramble yards (123), leaning heavily on his legs while the Chiefs’ passing game looks for rhythm. Drops — including a lost touchdown to Travis Kelce last week — have masked just how efficient he’s been, but Mahomes has still accounted for both a passing and rushing score in each of his first two games. The Giants have been one of the friendliest defenses to quarterbacks, giving up the fourth-most passing yards per game (297.0) and the second-most rushing yards per game (42.5). With Kansas City sitting at 0-2 and desperate to avoid an early-season hole, Mahomes may be even more willing to take off and move the chains himself in a primetime get-right spot.

Suggested Play:
'O' 29.5 Rush Yards (-115)

 

RB Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco’s slow start continued in Week 2, managing just 10 carries for 22 yards and adding one short catch, though he still led the Kansas City backfield in snaps (58 percent), carries (39 percent share), and routes (47 percent share). Despite his lack of efficiency, the volume is still leaning his way. The matchup with New York offers a chance to get on track: the Giants rank bottom ten in nearly every run defense metric, allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (122.5) and ninth-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.10). Last week Javonte Williams gashed them for 18 carries, 97 yards, and a touchdown. With the Chiefs desperate to avoid an 0-3 start, game script should keep Pacheco plenty involved.

Suggested Play:
'O' 9.5 Rush Attempts (-135)

 

WR Xavier Worthy

Xavier Worthy is trending toward returning after his shoulder injury cut his opener short. He closed last season as one of the league’s most dangerous downfield threats, leading the NFL in postseason receiving yards (287) and touchdowns (3), and entering 2025 with a streak of 10 straight games with at least 41 receiving yards. His vertical ability lines up well with the Giants’ defensive tendencies: they deploy man coverage on 40.4 percent of snaps, and Worthy posted 1.50 YPRR and 0.27 TPRR across 155 routes against man last season. With his speed stretching defenses and Kansas City needing a spark in the passing game, one deep strike could be enough to cash this.

Suggested Play:

'O' Longest Reception

 

WR Hollywood Brown

Hollywood Brown cooled off hard in Week 2, catching all 5 of his targets for just 30 yards despite running a team-high 87 percent route share. Without his 49-yard catch in the opener, he’s averaging only 5.7 yards per reception this season. His Week 2 profile was concerning: 17.2 percent target share, 7.9 percent air-yard share, a 4.4 aDOT, and only 1.00 YPRR. He’s also battling through an ankle issue, which showed in his lack of burst and poor separation metrics. The Giants play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate (40.4 percent), and Brown has managed just 0.70 YPRR and 0.20 TPRR on 20 routes against man. With Tyquan Thornton looking more explosive (2.56 YPRR vs man), Brown could again struggle to produce anything big downfield.

Suggested Play:
'U' Receptions

 

TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce looked more like himself in Week 2, catching 4 of 6 targets for 61 yards while logging a 78 percent route share, though a dropped touchdown kept the outing from being much bigger. Despite early criticism, Kelce leads all tight ends in average separation score (.156) and win rate (17.2 percent) through two weeks. The matchup with New York is favorable: the Giants deploy man coverage on 40.4 percent of snaps, and Kelce has been efficient in those spots with 2.28 YPRR and 0.17 TPRR on 18 routes. The Giants have struggled against tight ends, giving up the sixth-most receptions per game (6.5) and allowing Jake Ferguson to post 9 catches for 78 yards last week.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+155)

 

QB Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson bounced back in a massive way in Week 2, throwing for 450 yards and 3 touchdowns on 30 of 41 passing while adding 23 yards on the ground. Most of the damage came deep, as he connected on 7 of 11 passes of 20-plus air yards for 264 yards and all 3 scores — the highest single-game deep passing yardage total in the Fantasy Points Data era. That strength will be tested this week against a Chiefs defense that has allowed just 1 of 8 completions on deep attempts for 28 yards through two games. Kansas City ranks 10th-best in passing yards allowed per game (209.5), but they have shown vulnerability in efficiency metrics, giving up the eighth-highest YPA and sixth-highest passer rating. Wilson’s willingness to attack vertically makes this matchup one of strength on strength, but it’s unlikely we see the same explosive success as last week.

Suggested Play:

'U' 37.5 Yard Longest Completion (-120)

 

RB Cam Skattebo

Cam Skattebo has quickly carved out the lead role in the Giants’ backfield, overtaking Tyrone Tracy in Week 2 with a 50 percent snap share, 52 percent carry share, and 40 percent route share. He handled 11 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown while adding 2 catches for 14 yards, and notably he’s seen all 7 of the team’s red zone opportunities so far. While his power running style has translated into steady volume, this matchup presents a tougher test. Kansas City ranks middle of the pack against the run, allowing 80 rushing yards per game and 1.80 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, but they’ve been disciplined in limiting explosive runs and yards after contact. With Skattebo’s workload secure, he’s the most likely Giant to punch in a score if they reach the goal line, even in a difficult spot.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+240)

 

WR Malik Nabers

Malik Nabers dominated in Week 2, racking up 9 catches for 167 yards and 2 touchdowns on 13 targets while running a route on 93 percent of dropbacks. He now leads the league in air yards (410) and holds a massive 57.1 percent share of his team’s total, underscoring his role as the focal point of the Giants’ passing attack. Kansas City’s defense has been stingy against wideouts, giving up the 10th-fewest receiving yards to outside receivers, but volume has been there — they’ve allowed 16 receptions per game to the position. With 25 targets already through two games, Nabers should continue to command heavy involvement, making him a strong candidate to rack up catches regardless of efficiency.

Suggested Play:

'O' 6.5 Receptions (+100)

 

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

Wan’Dale Robinson broke out in Week 2 with 8 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets, showing a new wrinkle in his usage with a 17-yard aDOT after living closer to the line of scrimmage in the opener. He’s now cleared 6 receptions and 55 yards in both games while commanding a steady target share. Kansas City’s defense has been vulnerable to slot receivers, allowing the 11th-most yards (83.0) and 12th-most receptions (15) per game to the alignment. DeVonta Smith worked the slot for 53 yards in this matchup last week, and Robinson has shown the ability to separate and win against two-high shells, where the Chiefs play at the sixth-highest rate (62.1%). With his role expanding, Robinson should once again see steady volume underneath and across the middle.

Suggested Play:

'O' 4.5 Receptions (-120)

 

 

Almost feels like an early must-win spot for the defending AFC Champs here. They have not been able to establish the run at all this season, and that has hurt them often putting the team in long down to distances. This matchup against the Giants should allow more success on the ground, which in turn could open things up downfield more later on in the game for Mahomes and company.

Best Bet: Chiefs -4.5
Lean: 'U' 44.5 
Score Prediction: Chiefs 24 Giants 14

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Chiefs) Travis Kelce +155

Travis Kelce bounced back in Week 2 with 61 yards on 4 catches, narrowly missing a bigger day after dropping a touchdown. The Giants play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate (40.4 percent), and Kelce has been effective against it with 2.28 YPRR. New York also allows the sixth-most receptions to tight ends, including 9 for 78 yards to Jake Ferguson last week. This is a strong spot for Kelce to finally break through in the end zone.

 

Best Bet: (Giants) Cam Skattebo (+240)

Cam Skattebo has quickly carved out the lead role in the Giants’ backfield, overtaking Tyrone Tracy in Week 2 with a 50 percent snap share, 52 percent carry share, and 40 percent route share. He handled 11 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown while adding 2 catches for 14 yards, and notably he’s seen all 7 of the team’s red zone opportunities so far. While his power running style has translated into steady volume, this matchup presents a tougher test. Kansas City ranks middle of the pack against the run, allowing 80 rushing yards per game and 1.80 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, but they’ve been disciplined in limiting explosive runs and yards after contact. With Skattebo’s workload secure, he’s the most likely Giant to punch in a score if they reach the goal line, even in a difficult spot.

 

First Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Chiefs) Isiah Pacheco +750

Isiah Pacheco hasn’t had much efficiency to start the year, but he continues to lead the Kansas City backfield in snaps and carries. This week sets up well for him to strike first — the Giants are giving up the fourth-most rushing yards per game (122.5) and were gashed for 97 yards and a touchdown by Javonte Williams last week. With the Chiefs looking to avoid an 0-3 hole, expect them to establish the run early. Pacheco has the best chance to finish the first drive with a score.

 

First TD: (Giants) Malik Nabers +1000

Malik Nabers is coming off a monster performance against Dallas, where he erupted for 167 yards and 2 touchdowns on 13 targets. He currently leads the NFL in receiving yards and ranks second in air yards share at 57.1 percent, making him the focal point of this Giants passing game. With Russell Wilson leading the league in passing yards and peppering Nabers with volume, the rookie has quickly emerged as his go-to option in scoring situations. The Chiefs have allowed opponents to complete 71.4 percent of their passes, one of the worst marks in the league, which should give Nabers early opportunities to strike.

Parlay #1 (Chiefs) +545:
Isiah Pacheco 'O' 10.5 Rush Attempts
Isiah Pacheco ATD
Patrick Mahomes 'O' 28.5 Rush Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Giants) +1075

Malik Nabers ATD
Cam Skattebo ATD
Wan'Dale Robinson 'O' 4.5 Receptions