QB Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford is coming off his best start of the ‘25 season, where the 18-year veteran QB completed 29 of 41 passes (70.7%) for 375 yards and 3 TDs. It’s the third straight game that Stafford has thrown for multiple touchdowns. The Rams will welcome in San Francisco to SoFi Stadium on TNF for an NFC West divisional matchup. The 49ers lean primarily on three different defensive coverages that include Cover-3 (34.3%), Cover-4 (22.6%) and Cover-1 (17.5%). Against these schemes, Stafford has completed 92 of 136 PA (67.6% CMP) to go with 8 TDs and 2 INTs for an overall QB ranking of 106.1. It’s also important to note that Stafford continues to line up under center at the highest rate in the NFL (60.4%), resulting in a higher rate of pre-snap motion and play action. When Stafford is under center, the Rams have used motion on 74.8% of his dropbacks and play action on 76.1%. On these plays, Stafford has completed 26 of 34 passes (76.5%) for 318 yards, along with 4 TDs and 0 INTs. On these aforementioned plays, the LA quarterback has played within a clean pocket and when Stafford has good protection, he is completing nearly 78% of his passes for an average of 8.3 YPPA. However, when he is being pressured, Stafford’s completion rate drops off significantly to just under 49%. This is significant to his matchup on Thursday night because SF ranks 21st in the league in pressure-rate (33.1%). But even this number is inflated, and that’s because the 49ers will be without the services of Nick Bosa. In their first game without the star DL, San Francisco generated a league-worst 16.1% pressure-rate. Through week 4, Kyle Shanahan’s pass defense has allowed the 5th fewest passing YPG (172.3), but they’ve only faced Sam Darnold, Spencer Rattler, Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence. Here is why I really like Stafford in this spot. For starters, the 49ers will be on the road. Their defense is not only going to be without Nick Bosa, but they are also coming in off a short week. Another intangible that favors Stafford is the 49ers will be without starting QB Brock Purdy along with WR’s Ricky Persall and Jauan Jennings. This is going to make it more difficult for SF to sustain long drives and should result in Stafford and the Rams dominating the time of possession game. Matthew Stafford may not have the mobility of many current NFL quarterbacks, but in an era where we are seeing a drop in accuracy, the Rams veteran is as good as they get when operating within a clean pocket. Lastly, Stafford has experience playing on a short week and he has the top WR (Puka Nacua) in the league in targets, yards and receptions and one of the top WR (Davante Adams) in the league in touchdowns and red zone targets. I think he has a really good game here at home on Thursday night.

Suggested Bet:

Matthew Stafford 230+ Pass Yards (-129)

Matthew Stafford 2+ Pass TDs (-146)

RB Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams has 355 all-purpose yards (303 Rush, 52 Rec) and he’s found the end zone twice through the first 4 weeks of the ’25 season. Williams is coming off a game on Sunday vs IND where he finished with 13 carries for 77 yards (5.9 YPC), while adding 3 receptions for 17 yards. The biggest concern for Williams is fellow RB Blake Corum, who is becoming increasingly more involved in the Rams offense. Corum’s usage has gone up every week this season. He opened the season with just 2 touches and followed it up with 5 and 8 in the following two weeks, but in week 4 Corum had a season-high 11 touches. In fact, Williams handled just 59.1% of the backfield touches in Sunday’s game against the Colts, and this gives me cause for concern. On a positive note, Corum amassed just 16 total yards. That said, in order to back Williams (or any starting RB for that matter) with any degree of confidence he needs to be getting 75% of the action out of the backfield. In two games last season vs San Francisco, Kyren Williams posted performances of 116 yards, 3 TD (WK 3) and 112 yards, 0 TD (WK 15). Still, this was under an offense where Williams was averaging 21.6 touches/gm. This season he’s had 19, 19, 22, 16, and he’s not being used nearly as often in the passing game. Kyren is a solid play to score a TD.

Suggested Bet:

Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-205)

WR Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua has been a force among wide receivers to begin the ’25 season. He leads the NFL in targets (50), receptions (42) and yards (503). His reception total of 42 is also the most ever by a WR after four games. Nacua’s volume more than makes up for his lack of TDs, thanks to being targeted on 42% of his routes. San Francisco gives up the 7th fewest receiving YPG (110.3) and 9th fewest receptions per game (10.3) to opposing WRs, but this includes 3 games when Nick Bosa was in the lineup and the 49ers were unable to get any pressure on the QB last Sunday. This should allow Stafford to work comfortably within a protected pocket. When facing Cover-3, Cover-4 and Cover-1 schemes, Nacua has caught 36 of 41 passes (87.8% CR) while averaging 110.0 Rec YPG, and with Nacua playing 42% of his snaps out of the slot, he should be in for a big night on Thursday. In his two games against SF, Nacua has posted efforts of 15-147-0 and 7-97-0. Now, he will face a 49ers defense at SoFi coming in off a short week without Nick Bosa. San Francisco has solid numbers against the WR position this year, but they haven’t faced anyone close to the likes of Puka Nacua or Davante Adams. Sean McVay will exploit the 49ers on TNF.

Suggested Bet:

Puka Nacua 90+ Receiving Yards (-145)

Puka Nacua 8+ Receptions (-156)

Puka Nacua 9+ Receptions (+120)

Puka Nacua 10+ Receptions (+201)

WR Davante Adams

Davante Adams is coming off a week 4 matchup against the Colts where he hauled in 4 of 6 targets for 51 yards and a TD. Puka Nacua has an advantageous matchup on Thursday night, but things won’t be as easy for Adams who is facing a 49ers defense that limited outside WRs, Brian Thomas (5-49) and Marvin Harrison (3-44) over the past two weeks. Yes, San Francisco will be without Nick Bosa, but they have performed well against wide receivers lined up on the outside and this is a tougher area of the field to exploit. In addition, when Adams is facing Cover-3, Cover-4 and Cover-1 defensive coverages, he has caught just 10 of 21 targets (47.6% CR) for 119 yards with 0 TD’s. That said, Stafford and Adams are starting to gel and build chemistry with each other. Considering the expected amount of time and protection the LA quarterback should have; there’s no reason the veteran won’t be able to get his WR to the 50-yard plateau.

Suggested Bet:

Davante Adams 50+ Yards (-144)

TE Tyler Higbee

Last week, I addressed in detail the Rams lack of involving the TE position within its pass-catching game, and this didn't change on Sunday against Indianapolis. Tyler Higbee was targeted just twice the entire game, where he finished with 2 catches for 25 yards. Through the first four weeks of the season, the LA tight end has caught just 6 balls for 62 yards this season. Considering the Rams target the TE position at a 15.0% rate (5th lowest in NFL), there is no reason to throw a dart at Higbee and his line is set too low for there to be any value on the under.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

The Rams have the edge everywhere in this game. The 49ers come in depleted with injuries and Stafford will have all day in that pocket to pick apart this defense. One thing I will stress to yall is Primetime games go under more times and not and I expect the 49ers to try to control the clock and make this a grind it out type of game. Give me the Rams to cover in a low scoring game

Best Bet: Under 45.5 -118
Lean: Rams -6.5 -155
Score Prediction: 49ers 13 Rams 23

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Rams): Davante Adams +115

Davante Adams and starting QB Matthew Stafford are beginning to gel and find chemistry with one another. The 49ers present Adams with a relatively tough matchup on TNF, but the veteran WR has been difficult to defend in red zone this year. Despite entering last Sunday's game questionable, the 32-year old WR still hauled in a TD against the Colts. Adams (3 TDs) has now scored a touchdown in 3 consecutive weeks, and he has an absurd red-zone target rate of 47.1% this season. This is a great price at plus money in a matchup between Matthew Stafford and a worn down SF defense that I'm expecting Sean McVay to exploit. 

1st Touchdown

Best Play (Rams): Kyren Williams -205

There is certainly cause for concern as it relates to Kyren Williams overall usage, but he is a solid play for an Anytime TD on TNF. With San Francisco coming in off a short and playing on the road, this is a game I'm expecting the Rams to dominate. In just 3 career games against the 49ers, Williams has already scored 5 TDs. Furthermore, the Rams RB has been a touchdown machine when playing in SoFI Stadium, where he's found the end zone in 23 of L32 games. This is a really good spot for Williams on TNF.

Parlay #1 (Rams): Player Name +236

Matthew Stafford 220+ Pass Yards

Puka Nacua 8+ Receptions

Kyren Williams Anytime TD

QB Carson Wentz

Even though they lost, Wentz proved that he's the better QB option for this Vikings offence. He went 30/46 for 350 passing yards and is looking to roll that over this week against a tougher Browns defence. Cleveland is allowing the third-fewest completions (16.8), the second-fewest pass attempts (26) and the fourth-fewest passing yards (172.3) per game to QBs. The Browns run the fifth-most man coverage (40.3%), and more specifically, the second-most Cover 1. In his first two starts, Wentz has seen 28 dropbacks against man coverage, but has the fourth-lowest completion percentage (50%), the third-lowest yards per attempt (4.00), and the fourth-lowest QBR (60.4) of the 24 QBs with at least 25 dropbacks against the coverage. Against Cover 1, Wentz's numbers improve slightly. He has a 57.1% completion percentage, a 5.5 yards per attempt, and a 72.6 QBR. Not only will he struggle against this Browns secondary, but Wentz will also have to deal with Myles Garrett coming off the edge. However, so far this season, Wentz has performed well under pressure, completing the seventh-highest percentage (60%) of his passes, the 12th-highest yards per attempt (7.2) and the second-highest QBR (115.4) when under pressure. But let's remember this is an excellent Browns defence, and Wentz is still a backup. Against four good NFL starters this year, the Browns have held Joe Burrow, Jordan Love and Jared Goff to under 200 passing yards – we could see Wentz being the fourth victim this week.

Suggested pick:

Carson Wentz u210.5 Pass Yards (-110)

RB Jordan Mason

After exploding for over 100 rushing yards and 2 TDs in his first Vikings start, Mason fell back down to earth against the Steelers, rushing for just 57 yards on 16 attempts. This week, he faces a difficult Browns defence, which allows the second-fewest rushing yards (60.5) on the 16th most rush attempts (20.8). While not really a part of Mason's game, the Browns are even good at defending the pass to opposing RBs, allowing the sixth-fewest receptions (3.5) and the seventh-fewest receiving yards (20.5). But with just six receptions and 30 receiving yards on the season, let's just focus on his groundwork. The Browns run about an even split of zone concept (43.3%) and man/gap (38.5%) run scheme, and limit opposing RBs in both coverages. They allow a 3.56 yards per carry against zone concept (ninth-fewest) and a 2.3 yards per carry against man/gap (third-fewest). Mason hasn't had one of the coverages he really performs better against, with a 4.55 yards per carry against zone concept and 5.0 against man/gap. His rushing yards line of 69.5 (nice) is a little high for this matchup, but we do expect the Vikings to get out to a lead, especially with the news of the Browns starting rookie QB Dillon Gabriel. This should lead to a ton of rush attempts for Mason this week.

Suggested Pick:

Jordan Mason o16.5 Rush Attempts (-130)

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QB Bo Nix

There's going to be a lot of QBs this season that have their best game against the Bengals, and that's what Nix did. He went 29/42 for 326 passing yards, two TDs and one INT. He also added seven yards and a TD on the ground. This week, he faces a much tougher Eagles defence, which allows the 12th-fewest completions (19.5) and the 14th-fewest passing yards (215), but the 10th-most pass attempts (34) per game to opposing QBs. The Eagles run about league medium in both man and zone coverage, but run Cover 1 (25%), Cover 4 (19.1%), and Cover 6 (13.2%) at top 10 rates in the NFL this season. Nix has the best numbers against Cover 1, having the 18th-highest completion percentage (57.1%), the 10th-highest (7.21) yards per attempt and the 15th-highest QBR (89.6). Philadelphia has faced the 10th-most pass attempts when running Cover 1, but that has only amounted to a 4.3 yards per attempt (3rd-fewest). This Eagles team has been inconsistent this season; they haven't been clicking on offence, but their defence has been the one to carry them to an undefeated season. However, one thing that remains constant is that they face a lot of attempts. With a 3.5 point spread, we should see a similar close game, with Nix throwing the ball a lot.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix o Pass Attempts

RB JK Dobbins

Despite RJ Harvey working more into the offence, playing a season-high 41.3% of the snaps, JK Dobbins became the first Broncos RB in the Sean Payton era to rush for 100+ yards. How much is that him, and how much of that is the Bengals' defence? He won't get as easy of a matchup this week against the Eagles, who allow the 13th-most rush attempts (21.8) and the 11th-most rushing yards (97.3). This represents a significant decline from their 2024 rush defence, which was one of the best in the league last season. Philadelphia run more man/gap (45.7%) than they do zone concept (35.2%). Which is to their own detriment, as they allow a higher yards per carry (4.58) in man/gap than they do in zone concept (4.41). While impressive numbers, Dobbins' performance sees a 2.0 yards per carry spike when running against zone concept (6.55) than when running against man/gap (4.66). And while Harvey did get more work against the Bengals, we attribute that to the game script. In a much more competitive game like this, Dobbins should replicate his efforts from last week and have a nice day on the ground against the Eagles.

Suggested Pick:

JK Dobbins o Rush Yards (-110)

QB Jalen Hurts

Last week was the third week that Hurts threw under 25 pass attempts and under 155 passing yards, but walked away with the win. I'm not so sure they're going to be able to do the same this weekend and get away with it. The Broncos allow the 11th-fewest completions (19.3), the 13th-fewest passing yards (213.3), but the 12th-most pass attempts (33.5) per game to opposing QBs. The Broncos are a very heavy man coverage team, running the second-most man coverage (43.5%) in the league this season. More specifically, they run Cover 0 and Cover 1 at a top-five rate in the league. Hurts has seen the 13th-fewest dropbacks against man coverage, but has performed quite well in the limited attempts. Although his yards per attempt is middle of the pack (6.52), Hurts has the ninth-highest completion percentage (69.6%) and the eighth-highest QBR (126.8). Against Cover 0 and Cover 1, Hurts has the 11th-highest completion percentage (67%), the 12th-highest yards per attempt (6.81) and the seventh-highest QBR (125.6) this season. Diving into the lone game, Hurts performed well through the air in the game against the Rams, where they were chasing points. They trailed 19-7 at halftime, and Hurts had just 33 passing yards. He exploded in the second half, throwing for nearly 200 yards and scoring 26 points. We might see a bit of the same this week, as the Broncos are top-10 for first-half points, while three of their other opponents (Chiefs, Rams and Buccaneers) all rank outside that threshold.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts 180+ Passing Yards (-110)

RB Saquon Barkley

That's now two disappointing weeks in a row for Barkley, failing to hit the 50 rushing yard mark in either game. This week, he gets the Broncos' rush defence, who allow the 13th-fewest rush attempts (20.3) and the 16th most rushing yards (92.3) to opposing RBs per game this season. However, these numbers are heavily skewed as Jonathan Taylor, who currently leads the league in rushing, ran for 165 yards against the Broncos. Without that performance, the Broncos average just 67.3 rushing yards per game, which would rank as the fifth-fewest in the league. Now, Barkley is the same calibre of rusher as Taylor, but given his track record this season, he hasn't been. He ranks just 22nd in rushing yards on the season, a massive fall from his 2,000-yard 2024 season. Denver runs man/gap 55.2% of the time, which is the most in the NFL. They also allow a high 5.15 yards per carry, which ranks in the top-10. Last year, this would be good for Barkley, as he had the second-highest yards per carry against man/gap of all RBs with 200+ rush attempts. However, this year, Barkley has the third-lowest yards per carry (2.33) against man/gap of all RBs to rush for 30+ attempts. We're entering prove it to me territory for Barkley, so we're going to fade him again in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley u77.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

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QB Dak Prescott

No CeeDee Lamb and a tough Packers defence didn't slow Dak down, as he finished 31/40 for 319 passing yards and three PTDs, while adding a two-yard rushing TD on the ground. This week, he gets the Jets, who allow the fifth-fewest completions (16.3), the sixth-fewest pass attempts (27.8) and the 11th-fewest passing yards (208.5) to opposing QBs per game. New York runs the seventh-most man coverage (34.4%), more specifically, the seventh-most Cover 1 and sixth-most Cover 2. Dak has faced the seventh-most dropbacks (49) against man coverage this season, to which he averages the 20th-highest completion percentage (56.8%), the 14th-fewest yards per attempt (6.0), and the seventh-fewest QBR (63.1) of all the 36 QBs who have faced at least 10 dropbacks against the coverage. His numbers get worse in Cover 1, completing just 50% of his passes, a 4.90 yards per attempt and a 47.5 QBR. But he drastically improves against Cover 2, completing 79.4% of his passes, 7.47 yards per attempt and a 97.8 QBR, all of which rank in the top 14. Something I noticed about Dak is that he airs it out a lot against man coverage, as he has the seventh-most air yards (396) so far this season. Which sets up well for Prescott in this matchup, as the Jets allow the ninth-highest yards per attempt (7.51) and the ninth-highest yards per attempt against man coverage (7.3). And although Lamb is out, Dak still has two deep threats in Pickens and Turpin that he can connect with deep this week.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott o34.5 longest completion

RB Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams continues to break out for his new team this season. He's currently sixth in the NFL in total rushing yards, and he should continue to move up the ranks this week against the Jets' defence, who allow the most rush attempts (26.8) and the 10th most rushing yards (100.8) per game to opposing RBs. Through the air, the Jets do well at limiting opposing RBs, allowing the fewest receptions (3.0) and the fourth-fewest receiving yards (16.5) per game. New York mostly runs zone concept rush defence, at 53.9% of the time. That's good for the seventh-most in the league, and allows a 4.53 yards per carry. Funny enough, they do better in man/gap rush defence, allowing the fewest yards per carry (1.89) per game to opposing RBs. Javonte should have another great day on the ground, but his rushing attempts this week are just far too low in this matchup. The Jets have allowed James Cook, Bucky Irving, and Devon Achane to rush for 20+ attempts in three straight weeks.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams o11.5 Rush Attempts ()

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QB Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels returns after a two-week absence to face off against the LA Chargers, who allow the ninth-fewest completions (19), the sixth-fewest passing yards (177.5), but the 15th-most pass attempts (32). The Chargers run the seventh-most zone coverage in the league this season. More specifically, Cover 3, which they run at the ninth-highest rate (35.7%) and Cover 4, which they run at the second-highest rate (24.2%). Daniels has diced up zone coverage this season, completing the third-highest percentage (76.1%) of his passes, a 7.17 yards per attempt and the 10th-highest QBR (102.6). Against Cover 3 and 4 specifically, Daniels' completion percentage (76.2%) and yards per attempt (7.19) remain the same, but he sees a slight dip in his QBR, falling to 95.6. However, those two coverages are the best zone coverages that Daniels performs the best against, as his numbers drastically drop against Cover 6. So, Daniels should have a nice game through the air, but we like what he's going to do with his legs a little bit better in this matchup. When he was completely healthy, Daniels ran for 68 yards on 11 rush attempts. But he wasn't great in his latest start against the Packers, only rushing for 17 yards on seven attempts. The Chargers allow the most rush attempts (7.3) and the second most rushing yards (41) to opposing QBs this season. In fact, if we date back to December of last season, the Chargers have allowed eight starting QBs to go over their rushing line, and now face off against one of the most dynamic rushing QBs in the league.

Suggested pick:

Jayden Daniels o45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Jayden Daniels 60+ Rushing Yards (+190)

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt / Chris Rodriguez

This Commander's rushing attack remains a complete mess in terms of determining who will be the best week in and week out. Since Austin Ekeler's Week 2 injury, Chris Rodriguez has seen 39% of the snaps, while Croskey-Merritt and McNichols both have run 37% of the snaps. Rodriguez has seen 46% of the rush attempts, Croskey-Merritt has 38% of the attempts, and McNichols has only 15% of the carries. Considering these numbers, we will focus on Rodriguez and Croskey-Merritt. The Chargers aren't an easy matchup for RBs, as they allow the fewest rush attempts (17) and the sixth-fewest rushing yards (68.5) per game this season. LA run more zone concept (43.4%) of the snaps compared to just 32.2% in man/gap. Against zone concept, JCM has the edge in yards per carry, averaging 5.22 YPC compared to Rodriguez's 4.17. However, as we mentioned, this backfield is too messy to suggest either player until one of them separates themselves from the rest of the pack.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

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