QB Patrick Mahomes

The Chiefs’ passing game finally found rhythm again last week, and that momentum should carry into Jacksonville. Mahomes threw 37 times in the win over Baltimore — his second straight game with 35+ attempts — and Kansas City’s offensive identity continues to lean heavily toward the air. The Chiefs rank third in pass rate over expectation (8.6%), showing that Andy Reid and Mahomes are perfectly content to let the offense flow through the quarterback even with a rotating backfield. This week’s matchup sets up for volume. Jacksonville has one of the league’s stronger run defenses (third-fewest rushing yards per game allowed at 63.8), which typically forces opponents to abandon the ground game early. Their weakness lies in the secondary, where they’ve allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game (246.0) despite playing a high rate of zone coverage (80.2%) — a look Mahomes has shredded for years with his ability to manipulate safeties and find soft spots in coverage. With the Jaguars also ranking top-five in interceptions per game (2.3), Kansas City will likely lean on quick passing and motion-heavy looks to counter their ball-hawking defense, all of which require more attempts, not fewer. Combine that with a potential shootout environment (both teams rank top-10 in offensive pace), and Mahomes should comfortably eclipse 35.5 attempts as the Chiefs’ offense stays aggressive from start to finish.

Suggested Play:

'O' 35.5 Pass Attempts (-115)


RB Isiah Pacheco

The Chiefs’ backfield remains a rotating committee, and Pacheco’s involvement continues to trend downward. Last week, he played just 37% of snaps, carrying the ball seven times for 35 yards while being spelled by Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith. Kansas City’s offensive line, once a dominant run-blocking unit, has struggled to create push — Pacheco ranks bottom-10 among qualified backs in yards before contact per attempt (1.13). Jacksonville presents a tough matchup for early-down runners, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (63.8) and the second-lowest missed-tackle rate in football. Their interior front, anchored by DaVon Hamilton and Foley Fatukasi, has smothered zone-blocking schemes like Kansas City’s. Pacheco’s path to production likely comes through checkdowns rather than carries.

Suggested Play:

'U' 29.5 Rush Yards (-120)

 

RB Kareem Hunt

Kareem Hunt continues to carve out a steady role as Kansas City’s most versatile back. He led the backfield in snaps (46%) and carries (13) in Week 4, while also tying Pacheco in route share at 30%. His short-area reliability has made him Mahomes’ preferred outlet against zone-heavy defenses — and Jacksonville’s coverage tendencies fit that perfectly. The Jaguars allow the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs (47.3 per game) and have struggled to contain screens and angle routes, giving up over 7.1 yards per reception to the position. Expect Andy Reid to dial up several designed passes for Hunt to neutralize the Jaguars’ blitz-heavy looks. He’s cleared 8 receiving yards in three of four games, and this matchup supports another such performance.

Suggested Play:

'O' 7.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Xavier Worthy

Rookie receiver Xavier Worthy looked every bit the explosive playmaker Kansas City drafted him to be. In his return last week, he produced 5 catches for 83 yards on 8 targets, plus 38 more rushing yards on two end-arounds. His route-running and pre-snap motion versatility add an element the Chiefs offense had been missing. Jacksonville’s secondary plays zone coverage nearly 80% of the time, and Worthy’s speed poses a nightmare for their deep shell defenders — he averages 3.2 yards per route run against zone concepts, per tracking data. The Jaguars have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to perimeter receivers (135.8 per game), and their cornerbacks have surrendered a league-high 11 completions of 20+ yards. If Kansas City continues feeding Worthy on crossers and vertical posts, he should eclipse 60 yards comfortably.

Suggested Play:

'O' 59.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

 

WR Hollywood Brown

Hollywood Brown’s target share has been volatile this season, but his chemistry with Mahomes in the red zone has started to take shape. He’s scored in two of the last four games and leads Kansas City with three red-zone targets. Against the Jaguars’ heavy Cover 3 and Cover 6 looks, Brown’s speed on deep posts and seam routes can exploit soft coverage over the middle — he’s averaging 2.8 yards per route run versus those defensive shells. Jacksonville has surrendered the seventh-most receptions per game (13.3) to wideouts, and their safeties have been late rotating on deep-developing plays. Expect at least one designed shot to Brown inside the 20-yard line.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+210)

 

WR Tyquan Thornton

Tyquan Thornton has become Mahomes’ designated big-play specialist, with scores in three straight games despite modest volume. He owns a team-leading 23.8% target rate vs. man coverage and ranks top-10 in the league in average depth of target (16.4 yards). The Jaguars’ defense, which runs man coverage on just 14.4% of snaps, relies on their zone integrity — a style that Thornton thrives against by splitting defenders down the seam. His 1.44 yards per route run against Cover 3/Cover 6 doesn’t leap off the page, but the Chiefs continue scheming red-zone fades and play-action shots for him. With defenses focused on Kelce underneath and Worthy deep, Thornton is a sneaky bet to strike early.

Suggested Play:

First TD Scored (+1545)

 

TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce is slowly reestablishing himself as Mahomes’ go-to security blanket. He’s caught 4+ passes in three straight contests and leads all tight ends in target rate per route run (14%) against Cover 3/Cover 6 — precisely the looks he’ll face this week. The Jaguars’ linebackers have struggled to stay disciplined in underneath coverage, giving up the 12th-most receiving yards (49.8) and 14th-most receptions (5.0) to tight ends. Expect Mahomes to lean on quick hitters and intermediate curls to neutralize Jacksonville’s pressure packages. Kelce’s chemistry with Mahomes is unmatched, and given the defense’s tendency to drop safeties deep, he should have a clear volume path to five or more receptions.

Suggested Play:

'O' 4.5 Receptions (+110)

QB Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence's 2024 season has been a significant disappointment through four games, with his statistics painting a picture of a struggling quarterback who has yet to find his stride. Among 27 signal-callers with a full slate of games played, Lawrence sits at a dismal 17th in passing yards per game (211.4), 25th in completion rate (58.3%), 22nd in yards per attempt (5.87), and a troubling 25th in passer rating (75.1)—all very subpar numbers for a player with his pedigree. His contribution on the ground has been minimal, exceeding 10 rushing yards only once this season (12 yards in Week 1). Compounding his efficiency issues is his turnover problem, as he's thrown 5 passing touchdowns to 4 interceptions, tying him for the 3rd most interceptions in the league. Despite this lack of success, Lawrence has been given ample opportunity, throwing the ball 30 or more times in every game, and exceeding 40 attempts in two of them. Crucially, his offensive line has been a standout, ranking 3rd in pass block grading. This week's matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs presents a fascinating, potentially redemptive opportunity for Lawrence. The Chiefs run man coverage at the 11th highest rate in the league (29.2%), and against this specific defensive scheme, Lawrence has been effective in a limited sample size (30 dropbacks). His numbers against man coverage are drastically improved: a 67.9% completion rate, 9.07 yards per attempt, 132.1 passer rating, and 4 touchdowns to zero interceptions, with not a single turnover-worthy throw. While the Chiefs are ranked 1st as a coverage unit overall, they are surprisingly only 27th as a pass rush unit, allowing the 26th most passing yards per game (194.5) and the 23rd highest passer rating (85.3). Despite their lower pass rush rank, they still generate a solid sack rate (6.9%) and rank 3rd in pressure rate (46.5%), albeit perhaps not converting pressure to sacks as frequently. However, the Jaguars' 3rd-ranked pass-blocking offensive line should be well-equipped to mitigate some of that pressure, giving Lawrence the time he needs to exploit his effectiveness against man coverage. In a game where they will likely have to throw to stay in it, I like Trevor’s passing yards here.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 216.5 Passing Yards (-115)

 

RB Travis Etienne Jr.

Travis Etienne Jr. is currently operating at an elite level, showcasing his talent as one of the most productive running backs in the league and establishing himself as the focal point of the Jaguars' ground game. Last week, he delivered a dominant performance with 19 carries for 124 yards, highlighted by an explosive 48-yard touchdown run, along with one catch for a yard on two targets. For the season, Etienne is leading all running backs in rushing yards per game (98.5), boasts the second-highest yards per attempt (6.6), and ranks 4th in rushing yards over expected. He has been a consistent threat in the end zone, tallying two rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown. Furthermore, his workload dominance was clear last week, with 19 carries compared to just 4 for his backup, Bhayshul Tuten, confirming his featured back status. He also benefits from a top-tier offensive line that ranks an outstanding 5th in run block grading. This week's matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs presents an incredibly favorable scenario for Etienne to continue his dominant run. The Chiefs' run defense has been a significant weakness, allowing a concerning 5.2 yards per carry (ranking 28th in the league) and possessing a subpar 56.3% success rate (24th). Their struggles against opposing running backs are evident in the fact that they have conceded 100+ rushing yards to running backs in each of the last four weeks (118 to Baltimore, 100 to the Giants, and 107 to Philadelphia), ranking them 29th overall in run defense this season. This is not a spot to fade Etienne in what should be a competitive game. I think we haven’t seen as much usage and explosiveness in the receiving game as I expected this season, but he’s shown big play ability with the ball in his hands. For that reason, I’ll look to back his rushing plus receiving.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 76.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

 

RB Bhayshul Tuten

Bhayshul Tuten currently functions as the clear backup running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars, and his workload has seen a recent decline, making him a less appealing option for betting markets this week. After receiving 8 and 6 rushing attempts in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively, his carries dropped to just 4 in Week 4. On the season, Tuten has accumulated 88 rushing yards on 21 carries, averaging a solid 4.2 yards per carry, and has found the end zone once on the ground and once through the air. He also benefits from an excellent offensive line that ranks 5th in run block grading, which should theoretically create opportunities for any back in the system. However, despite a generally favorable matchup against a Kansas City Chiefs run defense, this does not appear to be a spot to back Tuten from a betting perspective. The expectation for this game is that it will be competitive, or the Jaguars could even find themselves in a negative game script, potentially trailing. I think they’ll look to lean on their lead back, Etienne, in this game. It’s fade or pass for me with the chance of garbage time work unlikely.

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110) - LEAN

 

WR Brian Thomas Jr.

Brian Thomas Jr. comes into this week's matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs as a disappointment so far. Last week, despite leading the Jaguars in receiving yards, his output of 5 catches for 49 yards on 7 targets, complemented by a 7-yard rush, was still underwhelming. This performance, unfortunately, mirrors a season-long trend of underachievement for BTJ, even as the volume remains consistently high with at least a 20% target share in three of four weeks and targets on just over 23% of his routes. His overall season stats—12 receptions on 31 targets (a paltry 38.7% catch rate) for 164 yards, with no touchdowns—paint a clear picture of inefficiency, further compounded by an alarming 20% drop rate and a modest 3.6 yards after the catch per reception. With an aDOT of 12.5 and lining up out wide 71.4% of the time, he's clearly being asked to make plays downfield. This week's matchup against a Chiefs defense that ranks 3rd in pressure rate could be either a boon or a bust, as BTJ ranks 17th among wide receivers in target rate against pressure, suggesting he could be a focal point even when the heat is on. While he has yet to clear his receiving line of 56.5 yards this season, he has consistently flirted with it, logging 49, 55, and 49 yards in the last three weeks. If you're banking on a pass-heavy game script and some much-needed positive regression in his catch rate, the "over" on his receiving yards line might seem tempting. However, given the consistent struggles with efficiency and drops, despite the volume and potential matchup upside against pressure, a cautious approach is warranted, and looking to other receivers in the Jaguars' offense might be the safer bet.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 57.5 Rushing + Receiving (-115) - LEAN

 

WR Travis Hunter

Travis Hunter, the dynamic two-way player for the Jacksonville Jaguars, presents a compelling betting opportunity this week. Last week, Hunter showcased his explosive potential with a 28-yard reception as part of his 3 catches for 42 yards on 5 targets, a glimpse of the big-play ability. His consistent offensive snap usage, hovering between 52.9% and 63.6% throughout the season, underscores the team's commitment to involving him, further solidified by offensive coordinator Coen's explicit desire to get him the ball in various creative ways – short crossers, screens, and motions. Hunter has seen 5+ targets in three of four games, accumulating 13 catches on 21 targets (a respectable 61.9% catch rate) for 118 yards, all without finding the end zone yet despite a pair of redzone targets. His efficiency metrics are encouraging, boasting 9.1 yards per reception, a 7.5 aDOT, and 5.2 yards after the catch per reception. Operating predominantly from the slot (66% of the time), Hunter is well-positioned to exploit favorable matchups. This week, with fellow receiver Brian Thomas Jr. likely drawing significant attention from Chiefs' cornerback Trent McDuffie, the stage is set for Hunter to capitalize. The expectation of increased volume, combined with his big play ability he should be a good bet to clear his receiving line, despite the low aDOT. Given the explosiveness of his play, this looks like a nice spot to ladder him too.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 29.5 Receiving Yard (-110)

40+ Receiving Yards (+164)

50+ Receiving Yards (+280)

60+ Receiving Yards (+440)

 

TE Brenton Strange

Brenton Strange, the Jacksonville Jaguars' tight end, has emerged as a surprisingly consistent option in the passing game heading into this week's matchup. Last week, Strange secured 6 catches on 7 targets for 45 yards, ranking second on the team in receiving. This performance isn't an anomaly, as he's seen 5+ targets in each of the last three weeks and has topped 45 receiving yards in three of four games this season, leading the team with 182 receiving yards on 23 targets. His efficiency metrics are solid for a tight end, with 9.6 yards per reception, 4.3 yards after the catch per reception, and a modest 5.8 aDOT. Furthermore, he boasts a low 5% drop rate and lines up in the slot 34.6% of the time. The glaring absence of touchdowns, especially with zero redzone targets compared to backup Hunter Long's three is surprising. However, this week's matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs presents a significant challenge, as they rank as one of the toughest defenses against opposing tight ends, allowing the 3rd fewest targets per game (4.5), 5th fewest receptions (3.75), and 5th fewest yards (33). While Strange has been a steady presence for Trevor Lawrence, the combination of his lower aDOT and the Chiefs' stingy defense against tight ends makes fading his receiving yards line a prudent move this week.

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 35.5 Receiving Yards (-102)

Last year the Chiefs loved playing at a slow pace running the ball a ton but this year specifically over the last 2/3 weeks have completely abandoned the run game and I expect no different facing a tough run defense. Both the Chiefs & Jags play at a top 10 pace. The Chiefs run a lot of man which is something Lawrence tears apart and the Chiefs looked like the prime Chiefs last week scoring 37 points which was the most since September 24th 2023. I like the Chiefs here to continue to look great and I Lean the over.

Best Bet: Chiefs -2.5 -135
Lean: Over 44.5 -135
Score Prediction: Chiefs 27 Jags 23

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (Chiefs) Hollywood Brown +210

Hollywood Brown’s target share has been volatile this season, but his chemistry with Mahomes in the red zone has started to take shape. He’s scored in two of the last four games and leads Kansas City with three red-zone targets. Against the Jaguars’ heavy Cover 3 and Cover 6 looks, Brown’s speed on deep posts and seam routes can exploit soft coverage over the middle — he’s averaging 2.8 yards per route run versus those defensive shells. Jacksonville has surrendered the seventh-most receptions per game (13.3) to wideouts, and their safeties have been late rotating on deep-developing plays. Expect at least one designed shot to Brown inside the 20-yard line.

Best Bet (Jaguars): Travis Etienne Jr. +125

KC has allowed three rushing touchdowns this season to opposing RB’s and Etienne has three on three season. Etienne has 14 redzone carries on the season and can score via the ground or air.

Longshot (Jaguars): Travis Hunter +380

We like the matchup and the extra involvement could get him some chances to score. He has the ability to break a long one and they could use him as a gadget piece near the redzone. Like the value here as a longer shot play.

 

1st Touchdown

Best Bet (Chiefs): Tyquan Thornton +1545

Tyquan Thornton has become Mahomes’ designated big-play specialist, with scores in three straight games despite modest volume. He owns a team-leading 23.8% target rate vs. man coverage and ranks top-10 in the league in average depth of target (16.4 yards). The Jaguars’ defense, which runs man coverage on just 14.4% of snaps, relies on their zone integrity — a style that Thornton thrives against by splitting defenders down the seam. His 1.44 yards per route run against Cover 3/Cover 6 doesn’t leap off the page, but the Chiefs continue scheming red-zone fades and play-action shots for him. With defenses focused on Kelce underneath and Worthy deep, Thornton is a sneaky bet to strike early.

Longshot (Jaguars): Hunter Long +6500

Crazy that he's the TE2 in this offense and despite the great volume to Brenton Strange, it's Hunter Long who has the red zone targets. Over the first four weeks, Long has 3 redzone targets! KC is stingy against opposing tight ends, but at this price I love the value 

Parlay #1 (Chiefs): +455

Patrick Mahomes 'O' 36.5 Pass Attempts

Kareem Hunt 'O' 1.5 Receptions

Isiah Pacheco 'U' 29.5 Rush Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Jaguars): +405

Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5

Trevor Lawrence 200+ Passing Yards

Travis Hunter 50+ Receiving Yards

QB Mac Jones

With Brock Purdy sidelined, the 49ers will turn to Mac Jones against a Rams defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate (45.6%). Jones has had flashes of efficiency when protected, but against pressure his accuracy falls apart, producing a -7.8% CPOE compared to Purdy’s near-even mark. The Rams’ front, anchored by Jared Verse, thrives at collapsing the pocket and forcing hurried throws. On the season, Los Angeles has allowed just 212.8 passing yards per game — 12th fewest in the league — despite facing volume from opposing QBs. While Jones is capable of managing the offense, the combination of limited mobility and an aggressive pass rush makes this a stay-away spot for betting markets until we see how Kyle Shanahan adjusts the game plan for him. However, I do see them utilizing a lot of short pass attempts to neutralize the pass rush of the Rams.

Suggested Play

'O' 32.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

 

RB Christian McCaffery

Christian McCaffrey continues to be the focal point of San Francisco’s offense, but in this matchup against a Rams defense that excels at limiting rushing production, it’s his work as a receiver that stands out. Los Angeles is holding backs to just 72.8 rushing yards per game, but they have shown some vulnerability in zone coverages when asked to defend running backs leaking out into space. McCaffrey has topped 50 receiving yards in every contest so far this season, and his target share is massive — 11 looks just last week turned into 92 yards through the air. The Rams’ coverage tendencies also play directly into McCaffrey’s strengths. With Los Angeles playing zone at a top-12 rate in the league, linebackers and safeties are tasked with keeping eyes forward and rallying to the ball. That opens lanes for a precision route runner like McCaffrey, who thrives on option routes and quick swings that allow him to create yards after the catch. His efficiency numbers back it up — despite modest rushing lanes, he’s averaging over 90 receiving yards per game across his last two starts. With Mac Jones under center, expect Kyle Shanahan to lean heavily on short, high-percentage throws to get the ball out quickly against a strong Rams pass rush. That game plan almost guarantees steady usage for McCaffrey as a receiver, making his receiving yardage prop one of the most appealing ways to attack this matchup.

Suggested Play:

'O' 54.5 Receiving Yards (-120)


WR Kendrick Bourne

Kendrick Bourne has been inconsistent, but with Ricky Pearsall dealing with a PCL issue and Jauan Jennings banged up, Bourne may be leaned on more heavily in this game. He’s run 73 routes against zone coverage already this year and owns a respectable 13.7% target rate with 76 yards on 7 catches in those looks. That’s significant because the Rams sit in zone on more than 75% of their snaps, one of the highest rates in the league. While his YPRR against Cover 3 specifically sits at just 1.14, the lack of depth in the 49ers receiving corps sets him up for an expanded role. Los Angeles has allowed the 10th-most receptions per game to wide receivers, even if they’ve limited yardage at times. Bourne doesn’t need to be flashy — his role as a chain-mover fits well against this zone-heavy scheme, and with Mac Jones likely emphasizing quick, short throws under pressure, Bourne could be a high-volume target.

Suggested Play:
'O' 3.5 Receptions (-145)

 

WR Demarcus Robinson

Demarcus Robinson only just entered the rotation but made an immediate impact with a 20-yard grab in his debut. His limited snaps could grow with Pearsall and Jennings both hobbled, and against a Rams defense that allows 152 receiving yards per game to WRs, Robinson is the type of depth option who could quietly benefit. In zone coverage — which, again, the Rams use 75% of the time — he owns a modest but efficient 9.1% target rate and has already produced a 20-yard gain in that look. Robinson has long been a downfield threat, and while his opportunities will be fewer than the starters, one or two schemed shots against soft spots in Los Angeles’ zones could be enough. If Jones opts to push the ball beyond the short throws, Robinson is one of the likelier beneficiaries with his ability to find seams. His low yardage prop is in range to hit on a single play.

Suggested Play:

'O' 16.5 Yard Longest Reception (-115)

'O' 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115)


TE Jake Tonges

Jake Tonges has emerged as a surprising contributor, scoring his second touchdown of the season last week while logging 68% of snaps. His role expanded in part due to injuries elsewhere in the offense, and he delivered with 3 catches for 58 yards and a score against Jacksonville. The Rams have been quietly vulnerable to tight ends despite solid overall pass metrics, giving up scores to both Tyler Warren and Dallas Goedert in consecutive weeks. Against Cover 3, which the Rams employ at the sixth-highest rate in the league, Tonges has been quietly efficient — averaging 1.80 yards per route run. With defenses prioritizing Christian McCaffrey and the outside receivers, Tonges often finds himself matched up against linebackers in space or running free in the seams. In the red zone, where Shanahan is known for dialing up creative looks, Tonges has already been trusted and could strike again.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+345)

QB Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford is coming off his best start of the ‘25 season, where the 18-year veteran QB completed 29 of 41 passes (70.7%) for 375 yards and 3 TDs. It’s the third straight game that Stafford has thrown for multiple touchdowns. The Rams will welcome in San Francisco to SoFi Stadium on TNF for an NFC West divisional matchup. The 49ers lean primarily on three different defensive coverages that include Cover-3 (34.3%), Cover-4 (22.6%) and Cover-1 (17.5%). Against these schemes, Stafford has completed 92 of 136 PA (67.6% CMP) to go with 8 TDs and 2 INTs for an overall QB rating of 106.1. It’s also important to note that Stafford continues to line up under center at the highest rate in the NFL (60.4%), resulting in a higher rate of pre-snap motion and play action. When Stafford is under center, the Rams have used motion on 74.8% of his dropbacks and play action on 76.1%. On these plays, Stafford has completed 26 of 34 passes (76.5%) for 318 yards, along with 4 TDs and 0 INTs. On these aforementioned plays, the LA quarterback has played within a clean pocket and when Stafford has good protection, he is completing nearly 78% of his passes for an average of 8.3 YPPA. However, when he is being pressured, Stafford’s completion rate drops off significantly to just under 49%. This is significant to his matchup on Thursday night because SF ranks 21st in the league in pressure-rate (33.1%). But even this number is inflated, and that’s because the 49ers will be without the services of Nick Bosa. In their first game without the star DL, San Francisco generated a league-worst 16.1% pressure-rate. Through week 4, Kyle Shanahan’s pass defense has allowed the 5th fewest passing YPG (172.3), but they’ve only faced Sam Darnold, Spencer Rattler, Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence. Here is why I really like Stafford in this spot. For starters, the 49ers will be on the road. Their defense is not only going to be without Nick Bosa, but they are also coming in off a short week. Another intangible that favors Stafford is the 49ers will be without starting QB Brock Purdy along with WR’s Ricky Persall and Jauan Jennings. This is going to make it more difficult for SF to sustain long drives and should result in Stafford and the Rams dominating the time of possession game. Matthew Stafford may not have the mobility of many current NFL quarterbacks, but in an era where we are seeing a drop in accuracy, the Rams veteran is as good as they get when operating within a clean pocket. Lastly, Stafford has experience playing on a short week and he has the top WR (Puka Nacua) in the league in targets, yards and receptions and one of the top WR (Davante Adams) in the league in touchdowns and red zone targets. I think he has a really good game here at home on Thursday night.

Suggested Bet:

Matthew Stafford 230+ Pass Yards (-129)

Matthew Stafford 2+ Pass TDs (-146)

 

RB Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams has 355 all-purpose yards (303 Rush, 52 Rec) and he’s found the end zone twice through the first 4 weeks of the ’25 season. Williams is coming off a game on Sunday vs IND where he finished with 13 carries for 77 yards (5.9 YPC), while adding 3 receptions for 17 yards. The biggest concern for Williams is fellow RB Blake Corum, who is becoming increasingly more involved in the Rams offense. Corum’s usage has gone up every week this season. He opened the season with just 2 touches and followed it up with 5 and 8 in the following two weeks, but in week 4 Corum had a season-high 11 touches. In fact, Williams handled just 59.1% of the backfield touches in Sunday’s game against the Colts, and this gives me cause for concern. On a positive note, Corum amassed just 16 total yards. That said, in order to back Williams (or any starting RB for that matter) with any degree of confidence he needs to be getting 75% of the action out of the backfield. In two games last season vs San Francisco, Kyren Williams posted performances of 116 yards, 3 TD (WK 3) and 112 yards, 0 TD (WK 15). Still, this was under an offense where Williams was averaging 21.6 touches/gm. This season he’s had 19, 19, 22, 16, and he’s not being used nearly as often in the passing game. Kyren is a solid play to score a TD.

Suggested Bet:

Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-205)

 

WR Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua has been a force among wide receivers to begin the ’25 season. He leads the NFL in targets (50), receptions (42) and yards (503). His reception total of 42 is also the most ever by a WR after four games. Nacua’s volume more than makes up for his lack of TDs, thanks to being targeted on 42% of his routes. San Francisco gives up the 7th fewest receiving YPG (110.3) and 9th fewest receptions per game (10.3) to opposing WRs, but this includes 3 games when Nick Bosa was in the lineup and the 49ers were unable to get any pressure on the QB last Sunday. This should allow Stafford to work comfortably within a protected pocket. When facing Cover-3, Cover-4 and Cover-1 schemes, Nacua has caught 36 of 41 passes (87.8% CR) while averaging 110.0 Rec YPG, and with Nacua playing 42% of his snaps out of the slot, he should be in for a big night on Thursday. In his two games against SF, Nacua has posted efforts of 15-147-0 and 7-97-0. Now, he will face a 49ers defense at SoFi coming in off a short week without Nick Bosa. San Francisco has solid numbers against the WR position this year, but they haven’t faced anyone close to the likes of Puka Nacua or Davante Adams. Sean McVay will exploit the 49ers on TNF.

Suggested Bet:

Puka Nacua 90+ Receiving Yards (-145)

Puka Nacua 8+ Receptions (-156)

Puka Nacua 9+ Receptions (+120)

Puka Nacua 10+ Receptions (+201)

 

WR Davante Adams

Davante Adams is coming off a week 4 matchup against the Colts where he hauled in 4 of 6 targets for 51 yards and a TD. Puka Nacua has an advantageous matchup on Thursday night, but things won’t be as easy for Adams who is facing a 49ers defense that limited outside WRs, Brian Thomas (5-49) and Marvin Harrison (3-44) over the past two weeks. Yes, San Francisco will be without Nick Bosa, but they have performed well against wide receivers lined up on the outside and this is a tougher area of the field to exploit. In addition, when Adams is facing Cover-3, Cover-4 and Cover-1 defensive coverages, he has caught just 10 of 21 targets (47.6% CR) for 119 yards with 0 TD’s. That said, Stafford and Adams are starting to gel and build chemistry with each other. Considering the expected amount of time and protection the LA quarterback should have; there’s no reason the veteran won’t be able to get his WR to the 50-yard plateau.

Suggested Bet:

Davante Adams 50+ Yards (-144)

 

TE Tyler Higbee

Last week, I addressed in detail the Rams lack of involving the TE position within its pass-catching game, and this didn't change on Sunday against Indianapolis. Tyler Higbee was targeted just twice the entire game, where he finished with 2 catches for 25 yards. Through the first four weeks of the season, the LA tight end has caught just 6 balls for 62 yards this season. Considering the Rams target the TE position at a 15.0% rate (5th lowest in NFL), there is no reason to throw a dart at Higbee and his line is set too low for there to be any value on the under.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

The Rams have the edge everywhere in this game. The 49ers come in depleted with injuries and Stafford will have all day in that pocket to pick apart this defense. One thing I will stress to yall is Primetime games go under more times and not and I expect the 49ers to try to control the clock and make this a grind it out type of game. Give me the Rams to cover in a low scoring game

Best Bet: Under 45.5 -118
Lean: Rams -6.5 -155
Score Prediction: 49ers 13 Rams 23

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Rams): Davante Adams +115

Davante Adams and starting QB Matthew Stafford are beginning to gel and find chemistry with one another. The 49ers present Adams with a relatively tough matchup on TNF, but the veteran WR has been difficult to defend in red zone this year. Despite entering last Sunday's game questionable, the 32-year old WR still hauled in a TD against the Colts. Adams (3 TDs) has now scored a touchdown in 3 consecutive weeks, and he has an absurd red-zone target rate of 47.1% this season. This is a great price at plus money in a matchup between Matthew Stafford and a worn down SF defense that I'm expecting Sean McVay to exploit. 

Longshot (49ers): Jake Tonges +345

Jake Tonges has quietly carved out a role in San Francisco’s offense, finding the end zone twice already this season, including a 58-yard performance with a score last week. The Rams’ defense has been prone to giving up production to tight ends in the red zone, allowing touchdowns in back-to-back games. With Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings both dealing with injuries, Tonges could see more red-zone looks as a secondary option behind McCaffrey. His role isn’t high-volume, but his usage near the goal line makes him an intriguing play for another touchdown.

 

1st Touchdown

Best Play (Rams): Kyren Williams -205

There is certainly cause for concern as it relates to Kyren Williams overall usage, but he is a solid play for an Anytime TD on TNF. With San Francisco coming in off a short and playing on the road, this is a game I'm expecting the Rams to dominate. In just 3 career games against the 49ers, Williams has already scored 5 TDs. Furthermore, the Rams RB has been a touchdown machine when playing in SoFI Stadium, where he's found the end zone in 23 of L32 games. This is a really good spot for Williams on TNF.

 

Longshot (49ers): Demarcus Robinson +1815

Demarcus Robinson has only just started to carve out his role in this 49ers passing game, but his big-play ability was immediately on display with a 20-yard catch in his first real action last week. With Ricky Pearsall nursing a knee issue and Jauan Jennings limited by ankle and shoulder problems, Robinson could step into a bigger role on Thursday night. The Rams play zone on over 75% of snaps, which forces defenses to cover sideline-to-sideline and opens up holes for receivers who can sit in soft spots or break coverage deep. Robinson has shown throughout his career that he can win downfield or sneak behind defenses in red-zone situations. Given the uncertainty around the 49ers’ receiver health, Robinson offers sneaky value as an early-drive target, especially in scripted plays where Kyle Shanahan is known to take shots. If San Francisco looks to stretch the field early to soften up the Rams’ safeties, Robinson is a prime candidate to be on the receiving end.

 

Parlay #1 (Rams): DraftKings +236 

Matthew Stafford 220+ Pass Yards

Puka Nacua 8+ Receptions

Kyren Williams Anytime TD

 

Parlay #2 (49ers): Fliff +3210

Christian McCaffery 'O' 6.5 Receptions
Kendrick Bourne 75+ Receiving Yards
Jake Tonges Anytime TD

QB Carson Wentz

Even though they lost, Wentz proved that he's the better QB option for this Vikings offence. He went 30/46 for 350 passing yards and is looking to roll that over this week against a tougher Browns defence. Cleveland is allowing the third-fewest completions (16.8), the second-fewest pass attempts (26) and the fourth-fewest passing yards (172.3) per game to QBs. The Browns run the fifth-most man coverage (40.3%), and more specifically, the second-most Cover 1. In his first two starts, Wentz has seen 28 dropbacks against man coverage, but has the fourth-lowest completion percentage (50%), the third-lowest yards per attempt (4.00), and the fourth-lowest QBR (60.4) of the 24 QBs with at least 25 dropbacks against the coverage. Against Cover 1, Wentz's numbers improve slightly. He has a 57.1% completion percentage, a 5.5 yards per attempt, and a 72.6 QBR. Not only will he struggle against this Browns secondary, but Wentz will also have to deal with Myles Garrett coming off the edge. However, so far this season, Wentz has performed well under pressure, completing the seventh-highest percentage (60%) of his passes, the 12th-highest yards per attempt (7.2) and the second-highest QBR (115.4) when under pressure. But let's remember this is an excellent Browns defence, and Wentz is still a backup. Against four good NFL starters this year, the Browns have held Joe Burrow, Jordan Love and Jared Goff to under 200 passing yards – we could see Wentz being the fourth victim this week.

Suggested pick:

Carson Wentz u210.5 Pass Yards (-110)

 

RB Jordan Mason

After exploding for over 100 rushing yards and 2 TDs in his first Vikings start, Mason fell back down to earth against the Steelers, rushing for just 57 yards on 16 attempts. This week, he faces a difficult Browns defence, which allows the second-fewest rushing yards (60.5) on the 16th most rush attempts (20.8). While not really a part of Mason's game, the Browns are even good at defending the pass to opposing RBs, allowing the sixth-fewest receptions (3.5) and the seventh-fewest receiving yards (20.5). But with just six receptions and 30 receiving yards on the season, let's just focus on his groundwork. The Browns run about an even split of zone concept (43.3%) and man/gap (38.5%) run scheme, and limit opposing RBs in both coverages. They allow a 3.56 yards per carry against zone concept (ninth-fewest) and a 2.3 yards per carry against man/gap (third-fewest). Mason hasn't had one of the coverages he really performs better against, with a 4.55 yards per carry against zone concept and 5.0 against man/gap. His rushing yards line of 69.5 (nice) is a little high for this matchup, but we do expect the Vikings to get out to a lead, especially with the news of the Browns starting rookie QB Dillon Gabriel. This should lead to a ton of rush attempts for Mason this week.

Suggested Pick:

Jordan Mason o16.5 Rush Attempts (-130)

WR Justin Jefferson

Jefferson had his best game of the season last week, catching 10 of 12 targets for 126 receiving yards. This week, he'll get a difficult Browns defence, who allow the seventh-fewest receptions (9.8) and the eighth-fewest receiving yards (121.3) per game to opposing WRs. The Browns run the fifth-most man coverage (40.3%). Against man coverage this season, Jefferson has run the 23rd most routes (127) and has the 22nd highest yards per reception (14.82). With the Browns running Cover 1 and Cover 2 at the top 10 rates, Jefferson has a bit of a mixed bag in terms of numbers against those coverages. Jefferson has run the 14th most routes (49) and has the ninth most targets (13) among receivers with 8+ targets against man coverage. Yet, his 69.2% catch rate ranks 30th out of 59 receivers. However, he makes the most of his catches, as he has the 13th-highest yards per reception (14.56). Jefferson lines up out wide on 78.6% of his routes. Against outside WRs, the Browns allow the sixth-highest catch rate (69.2%), but rank 17th in terms of yards per reception (12.89). One number remains the same when comparing the Browns' catch rate to outside receivers and Jefferson's catch rate against Cover 1 and Cover 2 – both are 69.2%. If we're to expect a 69.2% catch rate from Jefferson, he would need to see nine targets to go over his receptions line of 5.5. This season, Jefferson has only seen 9+ targets in one game: last week, when trailing to the Steelers. The Vikings shouldn't have that fate this week against the Browns.

Suggested pick:

Justin Jefferson u5.5 Receptions (+115)

 

WR Jordan Addison

Addison made an impression in his season debut, catching four of his eight targets for 114 receiving yards, mostly credited to an 81-yard long reception late in the fourth quarter. Addison had just one target against man coverage last week, taking that for 22 receiving yards. Last season against man coverage, Addison was nothing special. He caught 12 of his 24 targets for 114 receiving yards. Against Cover 1 and Cover 2 last season, Addison had a 60.7% catch rate, but for a 16.94 yards per reception average. Typically, we wouldn't want to target a player with these stats against such a good defence. However, we anticipate the Vikings taking a few shots downfield if things don't open up in the middle of the field. With that being said, Addison racked up a 14.9 aDoT last week, and his longest reception line of 19.5 is too low. In 10 of 15 games last season, Addison reeled in a 20+ longest reception.

Suggested pick:

Jordan Addison o19.5 Longest Reception (-115)

 

TE TJ Hockenson

Fool me once? Shame on you; fool me twice? Shame on me; fool me three times? I'm out. No matter who's at QB, Hockenson just hasn't been the impactful TE fans are used to seeing this season. Through four games, he's done well to catch 13 of his 18 targets, but has only turned that into 115 receiving yards. This week won't be much easier against the Browns, who allow the fourth-fewest receptions (3.5) and receiving yards (30.5) per game to opposing TEs. Hockenson runs most of his routes in-line (44.4%). Against in-line receivers, the Browns have allowed the 11th-highest catch rate (84.6%), but the seventh-lowest yards per reception (6.55). Within the coming weeks, there will be opportunities to target Hockenson, but this doesn't appear to be one of them.

Suggested pick:

Pass

QB Dillon Gabriel

The Browns are turning the page from Joe Flacco to rookie Dillon Gabriel, hoping to spark an offense that has been stagnant in recent weeks. Gabriel brings a dual-threat profile to the position, having completed nearly 69% of his passes at Oregon and Oklahoma while averaging over 280 passing yards per game in college. He’s also shown mobility, rushing for 25 touchdowns across his career. However, his first test comes against a Minnesota defense that is designed to confuse young quarterbacks. The Vikings run zone coverage nearly 80% of the time — one of the highest rates in the league — and they’ve held opposing QBs to just 171 passing yards per game, third-best in the NFL. Against zone looks this season, Cleveland’s wideouts have produced well below average in separation and efficiency, meaning Gabriel may not have many clean windows to throw into. With the Browns likely leaning heavily on Quinshon Judkins to establish the ground game, Gabriel may play more of a “game manager” role in his debut. Given the difficult matchup, the lack of track record at this level, and the likelihood of a conservative game plan, this is a spot to stay away from betting Gabriel props.

Suggested Play:

Pass

RB Quinshon Judkins

Quinshon Judkins has quickly become the engine of Cleveland’s offense, earning over 60% of snaps and nearly 80% of the backfield carries since taking over as lead back in Week 2. He has topped 70 scrimmage yards in every game so far and found the end zone last week against Detroit, showing his ability to handle high-leverage touches. Against Minnesota, his role becomes even more critical with a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start. The Vikings have been leaky against the run, giving up 108.5 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry, along with a high adjusted yards before contact per attempt number (2.06). Just last week, Kenneth Gainwell shredded this defense for 99 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 35 yards receiving. Given Judkins’ workload share, particularly in the red zone, and Minnesota’s struggles to keep runners out of the end zone, he is in prime position to score again.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+105)

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy continues to command a heavy workload in Cleveland’s passing attack, logging nearly 90% of routes and seeing 8+ targets in three of the last four games. The volume is there, but the production has lagged, with Jeudy failing to top 51 yards in each of his last three contests. The matchup against Minnesota does him no favors. The Vikings run zone coverage at a top-five rate (79.8%), and Jeudy’s efficiency against zone has been underwhelming — averaging just 0.19 fantasy points per route and 15.6% target rate despite high usage. On top of that, Minnesota has allowed the fewest receptions (just 20 total) and the seventh-fewest yards per game (76.8) to receivers aligned out wide, where Jeudy runs the bulk of his routes. Even Ja’Marr Chase, one of the NFL’s elite wideouts, was held to just 50 yards in this matchup last week. With a rookie QB in his first start, it’s hard to see Jeudy producing the type of explosive game needed to clear this number.

Suggested Play:

‘U’ 45.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

 

WR Isaiah Bond

Isaiah Bond has become a bigger part of the passing attack with Cedric Tillman sidelined, and his usage numbers reflect that bump. He led Cleveland in receiving yards last week with 58 on 6 targets, and his target share is holding steady around 17% since entering the starting lineup. What stands out most about Bond in this matchup is how his skill set matches the Vikings’ defensive tendencies. Minnesota runs zone coverage nearly 80% of the time, and Bond’s target rate against zone jumps to 17% with 4 catches on 53 routes — a reliable mark for a secondary receiver. The Vikings’ defense has been excellent at limiting explosive perimeter plays but tends to concede short-to-intermediate completions underneath, especially to receivers working crossers and quick routes. With Dillon Gabriel making his first start, the Browns will likely scheme simple, high-percentage throws, and Bond is an ideal candidate to benefit. 

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-145)

TE Harold Fannin

Harold Fannin has cooled off after a promising start, failing to top 30 yards in each of his last two outings and watching his production decline for four straight games. His route share remains solid at over 60%, but the efficiency has dipped considerably. Against zone coverage — which he will see on nearly 80% of snaps against Minnesota — Fannin has averaged only 0.13 fantasy points per route and fewer than 1 yard per route run. That’s well below the league average for tight ends. Meanwhile, the Vikings have been quietly stingy against the position, allowing just 41 receiving yards per game (11th fewest). Last week, even with consistent usage, Fannin managed just 24 yards, and teammate David Njoku chipped in a paltry 11 yards. With Dillon Gabriel making his first start, Cleveland is likely to run a simplified passing plan that limits tight end downfield targets. Given both his declining production and Minnesota’s success against the position, the under on his receiving yards is the most logical play.

Suggested Play:

‘U’ 28.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

We got backup Wentz and a Rookie making his first career start against good defenses. Don't see many scoring chances. Give me the Under and the Vikings to cover the short spread

Best Bet: Under 37.5 -120
Lean: Vikimgs -2.5 -135
Score Prediction: Vikings 17 Browns 14

Anytime TD Picks

 

Best Pick: (Vikings): Jordan Addison TD (+300)

In all seriousness, Addison should have housed that 81-yard reception last week. Unfortunately, he got caught, and he couldn't find paydirt. If we're anticipating the Vikings to continue taking shots at their deep threat down the field, he should be able to find the end zone if he capitalizes this week. While the Browns are great at limiting yards to opposing WRs, they allow the second-most receiving TDs (1.5) per game to the position.

 

 Quinshon Judkins Anytime TD (+105)

Judkins has taken full control of Cleveland’s backfield, handling nearly 80% of the carries and over 60% of the snaps. He’s scored in back-to-back games and has become the focal point of the red-zone offense. The Vikings are giving up over 108 rushing yards per game and just allowed Kenneth Gainwell to find the end zone twice. With a rookie QB under center, Cleveland is likely

1st Touchdown

 

Best Pick: (Vikings) Justin Jefferson First TD (+700)

Leaning more into the Browns allowing so many TDs to opposing WRs, we'll cover our bases by taking Jefferson to score first. Of Wentz's six pass attempts on the first drive last week, Jefferson earned five of those targets. If that's to continue and the Vikings can march the field, there's a strong possibility that Jefferson will find the end zone first.

 

Quinshon Judkins First TD +440

Cleveland’s offense has been running directly through Quinshon Judkins since he stepped into the starting role, and that won’t change with rookie QB Dillon Gabriel making his first start. Judkins owns nearly 80% of the team’s carries and all of their short-yardage work, making him the clear favorite to handle red-zone touches. The Vikings have already given up multiple early rushing scores this season, including two to Kenneth Gainwell last week. With Cleveland likely to script their opening drives around the run game to ease Gabriel into the action, Judkins has a prime opportunity to strike first.

Parlay 1: (Vikings) +275 odds on bet365

Minnesota Vikings ML

Jordan Mason 15+ Rush Attempts

Jordan Addison o19.5 Longest Reception

 

Parlay #2 (Browns) +555

Quinshon Judkins ATD

Fannin ‘U’ 28.5 Receiving Yards

Jeudy ‘O’ 43.5 Receiving Yards 

QB C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud's sophomore season has thus far presented a middling statistical profile, placing him squarely in the realm of an average NFL starter among quarterbacks who have played all four games. Out of 27 eligible QBs, Stroud ranks 18th in yards per game (208.0), 13th in completion rate (67.5%), 14th in yards per attempt (7.11), and 17th in passer rating (88.7). Beyond his arm, Stroud has consistently utilized his legs, averaging 23 rushing yards per game with at least four carries in every contest. His touchdown-to-interception ratio stands at 4 passing touchdowns to 3 interceptions, an unimpressive line. Compounding his efforts is a struggling offensive line, ranked 27th in pass block grading, which often forces him to operate under duress. The Ravens deploy man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league (41.9%), a scheme against which Stroud has shown slightly worse numbers this season (61.3% completion rate, 6.68 YPA, and a 7.7% sack rate). Despite this slight dip, Stroud's first-read rate soars from his season average of 68.4% to an impressive 83.9% against man coverage. This suggests that while his overall efficiency against man might be down, he's quickly identifying and targeting his primary options. The Ravens have been poor against the pass this season, allowing the 4th most passing yards per game (271.0) and the 7th highest passer rating (102.3) to opposing quarterbacks. Their pass rush has been largely ineffective, boasting only a 2.3% sack rate (ranking 31st in the league) and a modest 34.9% pressure rate (21st). With Lamar Jackson sidelined, the Texans might aim for a more ball-control oriented game, but Stroud nonetheless finds one of his most favorable matchups of the season here. However, given the matchup I’m not looking at unders here. It’s overs or pass.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 207.5 Passing Yards (-115)
‘O’ 11.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

RB Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb's 2024 season has been surprisingly underwhelming, with his rushing statistics reflecting a struggle to find consistent production. Among running backs with at least 35 rushing attempts, Chubb ranks 25th in rushing yards per game (47.0), 20th in yards per carry (4.00), and 25th in explosive run rate (2.1%). He's also been frequently stopped for little or no gain, ranking 9th in stuff rate (51.9%), and struggles to break tackles - 32nd rank in yards after contact per attempt (1.68). Despite these generally poor numbers, his offensive line has provided respectable run blocking, ranking 11th in the league. Chubb has only managed one touchdown on the season too. This week's matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, however, presents a significantly more favorable environment for Chubb to potentially reverse his fortunes. The Ravens have been quite susceptible to the run, ranking 6th in rushing yards allowed per game (141.3) and 10th in yards per carry allowed (4.59). They also struggle to limit yards after contact, allowing the 5th most at 2.55 yards per attempt, and have a low stuff rate (31st at 36.8%). While their explosive run rate allowed is middling (17th at 4.1%), the overall defensive metrics against the run are encouraging for the Texans' backfield. A major development impacting Chubb's role is the emergence of Woody Marks, who out-carried Chubb 17-13 last week, albeit largely in garbage time. Marks' impressive performance, including 2 touchdowns and 4 catches for 50 yards, suggests he might be transitioning into the lead back role, potentially slowly eroding Chubb's workload. The betting markets seem to acknowledge this shift, as Chubb's rushing yard line has plummeted into the low 30’s. With a very low line of 30.5 rushing yards in what is otherwise a favorable matchup against a poor Ravens run defense, Chubb should be able to surpass this modest total, especially with no Lamar Jackson on the other side.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 30.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

 

RB Woody Marks
Marks seemingly emerged last week with 27 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown, while adding 4 catches for 50 yards and a receiving touchdown. He’s gotten more work in each of the last 3 weeks in both the rushing (3, 6 and 27 carries) and receiving game (1, 2 and 5 targets). He’s been the more effective runner too as a more explosive player. Despite a similar YPC (3.90) and stuff rate (51.7%), Marks holds a 6.9% explosive run rate and 2.38 yards after contact per carry. He passes both the statistical and eye test as the better running back between him and Chubb. I’m expecting a heavy run game from HOU this week as BAL trots out Cooper Rush. There is no reason both of these RB’s can’t find success.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR Nico Collins
Nico Collins has established himself as a reliable and productive target for the Houston Texans through the first four weeks of the season, showcasing solid numbers as the primary receiver. He's accumulated 18 receptions for 260 yards on 31 targets, maintaining a 58% catch rate. Collins operates with a healthy 11.5 aDOT (average depth of target), commands a significant 26.5% target share and an impressive 31.3% team yardage share, averaging 14.44 yards per reception. He's also been a threat in the red zone, securing 2 touchdowns on 3 endzone targets. Crucially for this week, Collins was questionable but has been upgraded to "good to go." This week's matchup against the Baltimore Ravens presents an exceptionally favorable scenario for Collins, particularly given Baltimore's defensive tendencies. The Ravens utilize man coverage at the 3rd highest rate in the league (41.9%), and Collins has historically excelled against man coverage throughout his career. This season, the synergy between Collins and C.J. Stroud against man has been notable: Stroud's first-read rate jumps significantly from 68.4% to 83.9% when facing man coverage, and Collins' target share simultaneously increases from 26.5% to 29.0%, while he accounts for 28% of the team's yardage against this scheme. The Ravens' pass defense has been quite generous, allowing the 6th highest passer rating when targeted (113.5) and the 4th highest receiving yards per game (271.0). The only potential concern is if the Texans attempt to lean heavily on the run game to control the clock, especially with Lamar Jackson sidelined for Baltimore. However, given the Ravens' defensive weaknesses against the pass, it's highly probable that Collins will see plenty of action, particularly in the deep game where his aDOT and yards per reception can truly shine. Therefore, the over on Nico Collins' receiving yards and potentially his receptions or even a touchdown prop are strong betting considerations.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Anytime Touchdown (+140)

 

WR Christian Kirk
After two games since coming off of IR, Kirk hasn’t done a ton with only 3 receptions in each game (45 total receiving yards). However, he has produced 12 targets in two weeks which is promising, which has resulted in a 38.5% target share. He’s clearly stepped into the #2 role in this offense based on volume. Him and Stroud should continue to build some chemistry as the season wears on. Kirk primarily plays out of the slot and BAL has been susceptible there. They have allowed the 5th most yards per game (82.5), 4th highest aDOT (9.2) and HIGHEST catch rate (81.0%). They are also tied for the most redzone targets allowed to slot WR’s this season (6). This adds up to some potential opportunity for Kirk to make good on those targets this week.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Dalton Schultz
Schultz continues to be a steady target in this offense. He has 16 receptions on 21 targets for 126 yards. He doesn't yet have a touchdown and only has one redzone target. He ranks 2nd on the team in receptions and targets, but only holds a 7.9 yards per reception metric and 7.0 aDOT. He certainly being used more in the short gain, likely thanks to the 27th ranked offensive pass blocking line. BAL has been a good target for TE’s, ranking 4th in receiving yards to opposing TE’s (66.8), 5th in receptions (6.5) and 15th in targets (6.75). They are allowing a crazy 96% completion rate to TE’s. I think both his receptions and yards are in play here. He’s had 28+ receiving yards in every game and 3+ receptions in each. I’ll take yardage in this instance given the matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Cooper Rush

Lamar Jackson is nursing a hamstring strain, and all signs point to him sitting this week, leaving Cooper Rush as the likely starter. Rush is a steady veteran with experience from his Cowboys days, averaging just over 200 passing yards and about 1.5 touchdowns per game in his eight career starts. But this matchup is one of the toughest he could step into. Houston plays zone coverage on nearly 80% of snaps — fifth-highest in the league — and allows only 197.5 passing yards per game, eighth-fewest overall. They also give up less than one passing touchdown per contest. Rush does not offer mobility, and he tends to work short-to-intermediate throws, which plays directly into Houston’s strengths of keeping everything in front of them and rallying to the ball. While the Ravens’ weapons still have the talent to produce, this spot is simply too difficult to trust any passing props tied to Rush.

Suggested Play:
Pass


RB Derrick Henry

The Ravens’ ground game continues to funnel through Derrick Henry, and this is a week where Baltimore may lean even more on him with Lamar sidelined. Henry has been bottled up in recent weeks, but his volume remains strong, and he still dominates early-down work. Houston has quietly been vulnerable to power running backs, giving up over 4.1 yards per carry and ranking middle of the pack in adjusted yards before contact. Henry also dominated this matchup last season, running for 147 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries. The Texans’ defense thrives against the pass but can be softened by a steady diet of runs that wear them down over four quarters. If Baltimore controls possession and shortens the game to protect Cooper Rush, Henry’s rushing volume should climb into the 20+ attempt range. Even against a respectable front, that workload sets him up well to clear a rushing prop around the mid-60s.

Suggested Play:

'O' 79.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers has been the clear engine of Baltimore’s receiving corps, and his profile sets him up as the most logical piece of this passing attack to lean on against Houston’s defense. The Texans play zone coverage nearly 80% of the time, one of the highest rates in the league, and Flowers has proven adept at attacking zone. On 72 zone routes this season, Flowers has pulled in 11 receptions for 161 yards, with a steady 19.4% target rate. His ability to uncover in the intermediate areas, settle in soft spots, and create yards after the catch has been critical in moving the chains. Against man, his numbers are even more impressive — 12 catches for 144 yards on just 52 routes, with a massive 30.8% target rate. Houston’s secondary has thrived in limiting perimeter deep shots, but Flowers’ routes are diverse and frequently bring him inside, where he can escape shadow coverage and attack linebackers and safeties in zone. With Cooper Rush under center, the Ravens will likely emphasize quick, efficient passes to neutralize Houston’s pass rush and keep the offense on schedule. That game plan directly favors Flowers, who should rack up volume on slants, crossers, and outs. Even in a lower-ceiling passing environment, his usage profile suggests he’s the best bet to clear mid-50s receiving yards.

Suggested Play:

'O' 47.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

 

TE Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely’s return to action last week came with plenty of optimism, but the actual usage was telling. He ran routes on less than half his snaps and failed to record a single target, while Mark Andrews once again dominated tight end looks. Likely’s role has always been more of a complementary piece, and his production spikes generally come when Andrews is unavailable. Against the Texans, he faces a defense that has been one of the stingiest in the NFL against tight ends, giving up just 32 receiving yards per game and only 4.3 catches on average. Looking deeper, zone-heavy defenses like Houston’s exacerbate the issue for secondary tight ends. On zone snaps this season, Likely has not carved out significant volume, and with Andrews ranking second among all tight ends in target share against zone coverage, Likely is unlikely to see more than a few designed looks. The Ravens may also lean heavier on two-tight sets in an effort to protect Cooper Rush, but that would likely come with additional blocking responsibilities, further limiting his receiving opportunities. Given his current usage and the matchup, cracking even 25 yards looks like an uphill battle.

Suggested Play:

'U' 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

The Texans have not impressed me at all. I think the Ravens being underdogs is crazy. They still have Henry. 

Best Bet: Ravens ML +105
Lean: Under 40.5 -120
Score Prediction: Texans 13 Ravens 20

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Ravens): Zay Flowers +220

With Lamar Jackson sidelined, Cooper Rush will almost certainly lean on quick, easy throws to build rhythm and avoid Houston’s pressure. That strategy naturally boosts Flowers’ red-zone role. He’s the type of receiver who can be schemed open on slants, bubble screens, or shallow crossers, all of which function as extended handoffs when the quarterback needs to keep the ball moving. Inside the 20, Baltimore often designs plays to isolate Flowers in space, where his acceleration can turn a short reception into six points.

Best Bet (Texans): Nico Collins +140
Collins is ELITE against man coverage and tends to get upwards of a 35+% target share. He already has two touchdowns on the season and BAL's secondary has been in shambles all season. Giddy up.

1st Touchdown

Best Bet (Ravens): Derrick Henry +365

Henry also has a strong track record against Houston. Last season, he logged 147 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries, wearing them down with his trademark physicality. Even in games where Baltimore’s offensive line has struggled to open consistent lanes, Henry’s sheer workload ensures that he is the preferred option at the goal line. Inside the five-yard line this season, he’s handled nearly every rushing attempt, while Justice Hill has primarily rotated in as a passing-down and change-of-pace option. That role distribution means if Baltimore’s first red-zone opportunity comes on the ground — which is highly probable with Rush under center — Henry will be the one to finish the drive. From a situational perspective, Baltimore’s defense is still talented enough to keep this game close early, even with injuries. That makes it less likely the Ravens abandon the run quickly, and more likely that they march down on a balanced opening drive built around Henry. With Baltimore scripted to use him as the tone-setter, and his red-zone dominance already established, Henry is the clear frontrunner to punch in the game’s first score.

Longshot (Texans): Christian Kirk +1600
BAL is tied for the most redzone targets allowed out of the slot. Kirk is the primary slot WR and has gotten 12 targets in his first two weeks of action. With Cooper Rush under center, HOU actually has a solid chance of scoring first!

Parlay #1 (Ravens) +355

Derrick Henry ATD

Zay Flowers 'O' 4.5 Receptions

Derrick Henry 'O' 19.5 Rush Attempts

Parlay #2 (Texans) +1661
Woody Mark 70+ Rushing Yards
Nico Collins 80+ Receiving Yards
Nico Collins TD
Woody Marks TD

Parlay #3 (Texans) +1176
C.J. Stroud 250+ Passing Yards
Christian Kirk 50+ Receiving Yards
C.J. Stroud 20+ Rushing Yards

QB Jaxson Dart

Jaxson Dart’s debut as the Giants’ starter showed what makes him such a unique weapon: the ability to impact the game with his legs as much as his arm. Against the Chargers, he finished with 111 yards passing and just one touchdown through the air, but it was his 10 carries for 54 yards and a rushing score that really swung momentum. His rushing threat isn’t just scrambles either — the Giants used designed quarterback runs, zone reads, and rollouts to help him stay comfortable. The matchup with New Orleans sets up another favorable script for his mobility. The Saints rank last in the league in pressure rate at 28.7%, which means Dart should have more time to survey coverages. When the pocket doesn’t collapse quickly, his natural instinct is to tuck the ball and go if the passing window doesn’t immediately appear. That spells trouble for New Orleans, as they’ve also given up over 22 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks and were just burned by Josh Allen’s 45 rushing yards and a touchdown. With Nabers out, the Giants will likely lean even more on Dart’s legs as a dual-threat. His rushing floor makes him the most dangerous x-factor in this contest.

Suggested Play:

'O' 34.5 Rush Yards (-120)

 

RB Cam Skattebo

Cam Skattebo has quietly become the heartbeat of the Giants’ backfield. With Tyrone Tracy sidelined and Devin Singletary reduced to a secondary role, Skattebo commanded a 75% snap share and handled 27 touches in Week 4. He runs with a punishing style but is also a surprisingly reliable outlet in the passing game, seeing over half the routes out of the backfield. Against New Orleans, he faces a defense that can be vulnerable on the ground despite its reputation. The Saints have allowed nearly 100 rushing yards per game and rank 10th-worst in yards before contact allowed per carry, meaning running backs are often getting upfield before linebackers can fill lanes. Just last week, James Cook gashed them for 117 yards and a touchdown. Skattebo is the type of back who takes advantage of these gaps, breaking tackles and punishing defenses in the red zone. With Nabers out, the Giants’ red-zone playbook likely shrinks, making Skattebo their most trusted option near the goal line. That combination of volume and scoring opportunity makes him an excellent bet to find the end zone at least once.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (-130)

 

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

With Nabers out, many expect Wan’Dale Robinson to step immediately into a bigger role. But the matchup against New Orleans’ defense is less than ideal for a slot receiver like him. The Saints run zone on over 76% of their snaps and are one of the toughest teams in football against inside routes. Robinson has seen steady volume against zone (15 catches for 222 yards on 110 routes), but his efficiency has been modest, averaging just 2.0 yards per route run. More importantly, the Saints have allowed the fewest receptions to slot receivers this season and are holding opponents to just 1.16 yards per route from the slot. Even with his quick separation ability, Robinson will have to contend with linebackers and safeties closing down on him quickly in coverage-heavy looks. While he’ll see targets, the Saints’ scheme is designed to limit exactly the kind of underneath production that Robinson thrives on. Expect him to be a chain-mover, but not necessarily a volume-driven yardage producer in this spot.

Suggested Play:

'U' 48.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

TE Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson emerged as an unexpected hero in Week 4, catching a short touchdown from Dart to seal the win against the Chargers. What makes Johnson intriguing in this matchup is how New Orleans defends tight ends. While they don’t give up a huge amount of receptions (just 4.5 per game), they are prone to allowing tight ends to score. Last week, Dalton Kincaid’s only target went for a 28-yard touchdown, and the week before that, Dallas Goedert beat them in the red zone. Johnson’s role isn’t built on volume — he rarely clears more than 5 targets in a game — but his snap share continues to climb, and he’s heavily involved when the Giants get inside the 10. The Saints’ Cover 3 shell often leaves seams and short flat areas exposed, which can be exploited by play-action or leak-out routes. Expect Johnson to get at least one or two looks in scoring position, and given his size and Dart’s comfort targeting him near the goal line, another touchdown grab is firmly on the table.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+325)

QB Spencer Rattler

We are four weeks into the ’25 season, and the narrative remains the same for Spencer Rattler. The Saints QB throws often but the ball doesn’t move down the field, and on the rare occasions it does it’s like watching grass grow. Rattler is averaging 36.5 PA per game (4th most) but he averages just 5.2 YPPA (3rd fewest). The only starting quarterbacks Spencer Rattler has a higher YPAA than are Joe Flacco (5.1), who was just benched and Titans rookie Cam Ward (4.9). He will face the Giants in week 5, and nobody plays more Cover-1 (40.8% rate) defense than NY. This is bad news for a New Orleans quarterback who has struggled mightily against this particular coverage scheme. This season, Rattler has completed only 57.1% of his passes for 122 yards and 5.8 YPA. This doesn’t appear to be a trend either as last year his completion percentage when facing Cover-1 was just 47.1% and 4.5 YPA. Moreover, when Rattler is pressured, he’s averaging just 4.7 YPA (10th lowest). Last Sunday, New York moved DL Abdul Carter to the right edge, and it resulted in Carter posting a season-high 8 pressures and 5 QB hits. The overall result yielded in the Giants getting after Justin Herbert on 45.6% of his dropbacks. I am specifically targeting Spencer Rattler’s passing yard total in this game, which is currently sitting at 199.5 yards. Now, the Saints QB has notched 200 or more yards in 3 of his 4 starts, but let’s study the context here. Going back to week 1, Rattler threw for 214 yards (46 attempts), 207 yards (34 attempts), 218 yards (39 attempts) and 126 yards (27 attempts). This is a game where the Saints are going to be running the ball early and often. The Giants are allowing 116.3 rush yards per game (4th most) on 6.0 YPC (2nd most), while allowing 1.25 rush TDs per game (2nd most) to opposing RB’s. If you still need convincing, NY ranks 5th in the NFL in pressures with 65 total. I look for the Saints to have a consistent run-attack strategy and Rattler falling well short of 200 yards.

Suggested Bet:

Spencer Rattler u199.5 Pass Yards (-113)

 

RB Alvin Kamara

Prior to week 4, I discussed Alvin Kamara’s role in the New Orleans offense trending downward with relation to his overall production and as a pass-catching RB. Last Sunday, Kamara carried the ball 15 times for 70 yards, adding 4 receptions for 2 yards. Backup RB Kendre Miller has cut into some of his volume, which has resulted in Kamara getting 70.3% of the backfield touches. The biggest change that has affected Kamara has been his sudden drop in usage as a pass catcher. Last year, the New Orleans RB had a 16.2% target share and so far in ’25 that number has been cut in half to the tune of 8.6%, and this is a direct relation to Kellen Moore’s offensive approach. Despite Moore’s philosophy, along with Kendre Miller’s increased role in the offense, Sunday’s week 5 matchup vs the Giants at home gives us a great opportunity to buy low on Kamara. For starters, this is one of the rare games we are going to see the Saints come in as a favorite. They were also more reliant in the running game in week 4. This all lends itself to NO shifting to a run-heavy script in week 4 against a New York team that has not been able to stop the run all season. The Giants have allowed the 4th most rush yards (116.3/gm), 2nd most yards per carry (6.0/gm) and 2nd most rush TDs (1.25/gm) to opposing team’s RBs.

Suggested Bet:

Alvin Kamara o57.5 Rush Yards (-114)

Alvin Kamara 70+ ALT Rush Yards (+139)

Alvin Kamara 80+ ALT Rush Yards (+211)

 

WR Chris Olave

Despite entering week 5 as New Orleans top targeted wide receiver (30.5%) and the team leader in receptions (26), Chris Olave still sits behind TE Juwan Johnson in total yards (204). This is because Olave is averaging just 7.1 YPC in Kellen Moore’s snail-paced offense. Olave has been reliant in the reception department in ‘25, but I have major reservations this Sunday. After hauling in 7, 6 and 10 receptions in his first 3 games, Olave was targeted just 6 times in week 4, catching only 3 of those passes for 20 yards. This is largely due to a heavy run-based script in order to stay in their game with Buffalo for as long as possible. As much as I’ve been critical of Kellen Moore’s pace on offense, his strategy allowed the Saints to keep it respectable in a 31-19 loss in Buffalo. It is already a foregone conclusion that NO will have a similar run-heavy approach this Sunday, but for different reasons. The New York Giants have one of the league’s worst run defenses as outlined above, so in a rare game where they are favored, you can bet the Saints are going to lean on their running game. This makes Olave a poor bet to make on Sunday. Chris Olave is playing a career-high 35% of his snaps out of the slot, a position the Giants have been exploited in by their opponents, but Spencer Rattler’s deficiencies when going up against Cover-1 will be too much for Olave to overcome on. NY runs more Cover-1 (47.1%) than any other team and Rattler has been downright awful against this coverage going all the way back to last year. It stands to reason why Olave has only been targeted 6 times, catching 3 balls for 29 yards against Cover-1 this season. This is a great spot to snag another Olave under.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Olave u54.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Rashid Shaheed

Rashid Shaheed has incredible speed and is a major downfield threat, but he continues to waste away in Kellen Moore’s dink-and-dunk offense. Prior to Moore’s arrival, 32% (’23) and 39% (’24) of Shaheed’s targets were deep down the field. Four weeks into the ’25 season, the Saints WR has seen that drop to 16.0%. To say this number has shrunk would be a gross understatement. Further proof shows that Shaheed is averaging a career low of 9.7 yards per reception. As bad as QB Spencer Rattler has been overall vs Cover-1, this is a situation where Shaheed has proven to be more productive than Olave. When going up against this coverage scheme in ’25, Shaheed has caught 5 of his 8 targets for 68 yards. The Giants have allowed Quentin Johnson (8-98-1) and Tyquan Thornton (5-71-1) to put up big numbers against man-coverage, so I think Shaheed has solid betting value on Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Rashid Shaheed o40.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

Rashid Shaheed o17.5 Longest Reception (-120)

 

TE Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson has been a reliable option for QB Spencer Rattler this year, but like Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, the Saints TE saw his numbers diminish greatly last Sunday in Buffalo. After posting games of 8-76-0 (vs ARI), 9-49-1 (vs SF) and 8-51-0 (@ SEA), Johnson was held to just 3 catches for 28 yards on the road in week 4. More alarming was Johnson saw his target-rate drop off to 11.0% (3 targets) after being targeted at a rate of 23.4%, 24.3% and 24.2% to begin the season. A bigger concern as it relates to Johnson is his matchup this Sunday against a Giants team that is allowing only 42.3 YPG (12th fewest) to opposing TE’s. Two weeks ago, NY limited Travis Kelce (KC) to just 4 catches for 23 yards and 0 TD. With New Orleans expected to rely heavily on its running game this week I would stay away from Juwan Johnson, who has only 3 catches for 30 yards when facing Cover-1 defense. Saints QB Spencer Rattler’s inconsistency is an added issue here and putting your stock in the New Orleans tight end isn’t worth the risk.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

Giants looked really good last week but they lost Malik Nabors to an ACL inury. The Saints are brutal and might be the worst team in the league. Under spot 

Best Bet: Under 42.5 -112
Lean: Saints Under 23.5 Pts -155
Score Prediction: Giants 20 Saints 17

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Saints): Kendre Miller +275

This is great value for Kendre Miller at +275 for an Anytime TD. No pun intended, but it’s looking more and more like Kellen Moore is taking baby steps toward fazing 30-year old RB Alvin Kamara out of the Saints offense. It’s already pretty evident that New Orleans is not competing for a division title, or the playoffs for that matter. It only makes sense that Moore wants to take a look at what the 3rd year RB out of TCU can do in order to see if he factors into the Saints future plans. Miller’s workload out of the backfield has increased with every week. He's had 5, 6, 9 and 11 touches this season, but most importantly he outhandled Alvin Kamara inside the red zone last Sunday in Buffalo. Miller had 4 touches to Kamara’s 3, and we should see a heavy dose of the New Orleans running game this Sunday when they go up against a NYG defense that’s allowed the 2nd most TDs (1.25/gm) to opposing RB’s in ’25.

 

Best Play: (Giants) Cam Skattebo (-130)

Cam Skattebo has quietly become the heartbeat of the Giants’ backfield. With Tyrone Tracy sidelined and Devin Singletary reduced to a secondary role, Skattebo commanded a 75% snap share and handled 27 touches in Week 4. He runs with a punishing style but is also a surprisingly reliable outlet in the passing game, seeing over half the routes out of the backfield. Against New Orleans, he faces a defense that can be vulnerable on the ground despite its reputation. The Saints have allowed nearly 100 rushing yards per game and rank 10th-worst in yards before contact allowed per carry, meaning running backs are often getting upfield before linebackers can fill lanes. Just last week, James Cook gashed them for 117 yards and a touchdown. Skattebo is the type of back who takes advantage of these gaps, breaking tackles and punishing defenses in the red zone. With Nabers out, the Giants’ red-zone playbook likely shrinks, making Skattebo their most trusted option near the goal line. That combination of volume and scoring opportunity makes him an excellent bet to find the end zone at least once.

 

First TD Picks

Best Play (Saints): Rashid Shaheed +1400

Rashid Shaheed is low-risk, high-reward play for the first TD of the game. It’s no secret the Giants have struggled all year against the run, but they run the highest rate of Cover-1 (47.1%) in the NFL. What the books are missing here is that Chris Olave and Juwan Jennings have only caught a combined 6 balls for 59 yards on 9 total targets against Cover-1, while Rashid Shaheed has hauled in 5 of 8 targets for 68 yards. Furthermore, New York has already allowed outside receivers, Quentin Johnson (8-98-1) and Tyquan Thornton (5-71-1) a pair of touchdowns. Shaheed has a real shot here if the Saints find themselves in the red zone first.

 

Longshot (Giants) Cam Skattebo +350

Cam Skattebo is the clear lead back for the Giants, and with Malik Nabers sidelined, his role near the goal line only grows. Last week he handled 27 touches, including six red-zone carries, and his physical style makes him the most reliable finisher on this offense. The Saints have been vulnerable on the ground, giving up nearly 100 rushing yards per game and allowing lead backs like James Cook to carve them up in scoring position. With Jaxson Dart still settling in as a passer, it’s likely the Giants lean on Skattebo early to set the tone. His workload and red-zone presence give him one of the best chances on the field to strike first.

Parlay #1 (Saints): +330 (DraftKings)

Spencer Rattler u199.5 Pass Yards

Alvin Kamara 50+ Rush Yards

Rashid Shaheed 25+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Saints): Longshot  +4500

Spencer Rattler u199.5 Pass Yards

Alvin Kamara 70+ Rush Yards

Rashid Shaheed 40+ Receiving Yards

Kendre Miller Anytime TD

 

Parlay #3 (Giants)

Cam Skattebo ATD

Theo Johnson ATD

Jaxson Dart 'O' 34.5 Rush Yards

QB Bo Nix

There's going to be a lot of QBs this season that have their best game against the Bengals, and that's what Nix did. He went 29/42 for 326 passing yards, two TDs and one INT. He also added seven yards and a TD on the ground. This week, he faces a much tougher Eagles defence, which allows the 12th-fewest completions (19.5) and the 14th-fewest passing yards (215), but the 10th-most pass attempts (34) per game to opposing QBs. The Eagles run about league medium in both man and zone coverage, but run Cover 1 (25%), Cover 4 (19.1%), and Cover 6 (13.2%) at top 10 rates in the NFL this season. Nix has the best numbers against Cover 1, having the 18th-highest completion percentage (57.1%), the 10th-highest (7.21) yards per attempt and the 15th-highest QBR (89.6). Philadelphia has faced the 10th-most pass attempts when running Cover 1, but that has only amounted to a 4.3 yards per attempt (3rd-fewest). This Eagles team has been inconsistent this season; they haven't been clicking on offence, but their defence has been the one to carry them to an undefeated season. However, one thing that remains constant is that they face a lot of attempts. With a 3.5 point spread, we should see a similar close game, with Nix throwing the ball a lot.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix o31.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

 

RB JK Dobbins

Despite RJ Harvey working more into the offence, playing a season-high 41.3% of the snaps, JK Dobbins became the first Broncos RB in the Sean Payton era to rush for 100+ yards. How much is that him, and how much of that is the Bengals' defence? He won't get as easy of a matchup this week against the Eagles, who allow the 13th-most rush attempts (21.8) and the 11th-most rushing yards (97.3). This represents a significant decline from their 2024 rush defence, which was one of the best in the league last season. Philadelphia run more man/gap (45.7%) than they do zone concept (35.2%). Which is to their own detriment, as they allow a higher yards per carry (4.58) in man/gap than they do in zone concept (4.41). While impressive numbers, Dobbins' performance sees a 2.0 yards per carry spike when running against zone concept (6.55) than when running against man/gap (4.66). And while Harvey did get more work against the Bengals, we attribute that to the game script. In a much more competitive game like this, Dobbins should replicate his efforts from last week and have a nice day on the ground against the Eagles.

Suggested Pick:

JK Dobbins 50+ Rush Yards (-115)

 

WR Courtland Sutton

In a year that's seen a lot of the top receivers struggle, Sutton has been solid. His 266 receiving yards have him 16th among WRs this season. This week, he faces off against an Eagles defence that allows the 14th-most receptions (12) and receiving yards (149.3) per game to the position. Against man coverage, to which the Eagles run at the 13th highest rate, Sutton has caught only three of his eight targets, but turned that into 61 receiving yards. However, for Sutton, likely all of those yards have come against Cover 1, which the Eagles run 25% of their defensive snaps against. Sutton lines up out wide on 78.9% of his routes this season, to which the Eagles are targeted the fifth-most (59), but allow the third-fewest catch rate (50.8%). However, they are allowing 15.87 yards per reception, which is the fifth-highest in the league. The Eagles have struggled against opposing No. 1 WRs, allowing 100+ receiving yards to CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua and Emeka Egbuka this season. Sutton should have similar success this week.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton o57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Courtland Sutton 80+ Receiving Yards (+225)

 

WR Troy Franklin

Franklin continues to see the second-most snaps of the Broncos' WRs, so we should continue to treat him as such. Last week, Franklin caught four of his eight targets for 55 receiving yards. Against man coverage this season, Franklin has an impressive 83.3% catch rate, but has only turned that into 28 receiving yards. Franklin lines up in the slot on 63.6% of his routes. The Eagles have been pretty good against slot receivers this season, allowing the sixth-lowest catch rate (60.5%) and the lowest yards per reception (6.31) per game. Diving into the snap share a little further, after two weeks of seeing 80%+ of the snaps, Franklin's usage dipped to 57.5% – the lowest of the season. Now, that might be in part due to a blowout, but it didn't seem to affect Sutton's snap share, who saw 85% of the snaps – his second-highest of the season. With the decrease in snaps, as well as a tough slot receiver matchup, it might not be the ideal week for Franklin here.

Suggested pick:

Troy Franklin u3.5 Receptions (+110)

 

TE Evan Engram

The whole Engram experience in Denver is just not working out. He had his best outing of the season last week, but that only amounted to four receptions and 29 receiving yards. This week, he gets an Eagles defence that allows the fourth-fewest receptions (3.5) and the third-fewest receiving yards (24.3) per game to the TE position. Engram splits his snaps between both in-line and the slot. We already know the Eagles are great at limiting opposing TEs in the slot, but against in-line receivers, the Eagles are still solid, allowing the 11th-lowest catch rate (72.7%) and an 8.5 yards per reception. The Eagles are only tested against in-line receivers at the eighth-lowest rate in the league, and with Engram not being a focal point of the offence yet, you can't expect him to have a good outing this week either.

Suggested pick:

Evan Engram u22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jalen Hurts

Last week was the third week that Hurts threw under 25 pass attempts and under 155 passing yards, but walked away with the win. I'm not so sure they're going to be able to do the same this weekend and get away with it. The Broncos allow the 11th-fewest completions (19.3), the 13th-fewest passing yards (213.3), but the 12th-most pass attempts (33.5) per game to opposing QBs. The Broncos are a very heavy man coverage team, running the second-most man coverage (43.5%) in the league this season. More specifically, they run Cover 0 and Cover 1 at a top-five rate in the league. Hurts has seen the 13th-fewest dropbacks against man coverage, but has performed quite well in the limited attempts. Although his yards per attempt is middle of the pack (6.52), Hurts has the ninth-highest completion percentage (69.6%) and the eighth-highest QBR (126.8). Against Cover 0 and Cover 1, Hurts has the 11th-highest completion percentage (67%), the 12th-highest yards per attempt (6.81) and the seventh-highest QBR (125.6) this season. Diving into the lone game, Hurts performed well through the air in the game against the Rams, where they were chasing points. They trailed 19-7 at halftime, and Hurts had just 33 passing yards. He exploded in the second half, throwing for nearly 200 yards and scoring 26 points. We might see a bit of the same this week, as the Broncos are top-10 for first-half points, while three of their other opponents (Chiefs, Rams and Buccaneers) all rank outside that threshold.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts 200+ Passing Yards (+110)

 

RB Saquon Barkley

That's now two disappointing weeks in a row for Barkley, failing to hit the 50 rushing yard mark in either game. This week, he gets the Broncos' rush defence, who allow the 13th-fewest rush attempts (20.3) and the 16th most rushing yards (92.3) to opposing RBs per game this season. However, these numbers are heavily skewed as Jonathan Taylor, who currently leads the league in rushing, ran for 165 yards against the Broncos. Without that performance, the Broncos average just 67.3 rushing yards per game, which would rank as the fifth-fewest in the league. Now, Barkley is the same calibre of rusher as Taylor, but given his track record this season, he hasn't been. He ranks just 22nd in rushing yards on the season, a massive fall from his 2,000-yard 2024 season. Denver runs man/gap 55.2% of the time, which is the most in the NFL. They also allow a high 5.15 yards per carry, which ranks in the top-10. Last year, this would be good for Barkley, as he had the second-highest yards per carry against man/gap of all RBs with 200+ rush attempts. However, this year, Barkley has the third-lowest yards per carry (2.33) against man/gap of all RBs to rush for 30+ attempts. We're entering prove it to me territory for Barkley, so we're going to fade him again in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley u77.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR AJ Brown

While it hasn't been a great season for Brown thus far, there is still hope, as he's still earning a ton of targets. Last week, he caught just two of his eight targets, turning that into seven receiving yards. This week, he gets the Broncos, who allow the 13th-most receiving yards (12.5) but the 11th-fewest receiving yards (127) per game to opposing WRs. Denver runs the second-most man coverage (43.5%). That's where Brown has a little bit of hope this week, as he ranks as the Eagles' top PFF-graded WR against the coverage, catching five of his nine targets for 55 receiving yards. This isn't new for Brown, as he had the second-highest PFF grade against the coverage last season, catching 35 of 51 targets for 538 receiving yards – the most receiving yards against man coverage in the NFL. However, one obstacle stands in his way: Patrick Surtain. The reigning defensive player of the year is projected to shadow Brown this week, who has allowed 11 receptions on 17 targets for 122 receiving yards this season. Last week, Surtain drew the Ja'Marr Chase shadow, allowing just one reception for eight receiving yards. While it will be a tough matchup for Brown, his dominance against man coverage has us thinking a squeaky wheel game is coming for the disgruntled receiver – especially at this discounted price.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown o58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Devonta Smith

It's not just Brown who's been struggling; it's the entire Eagles passing offence. Smith has been better than Brown, catching 81% of his 21 targets for 158 receiving yards. Smith runs 63.1% of his routes out of the slot. The Broncos are just as good against slot receivers as they are outside receivers. They've been targeted at the slot position at the 12th-highest rate, but allow the eighth-lowest catch rate (65.8%). With Smith primarily running out of the slot, he should draw the Ja'Quan McMillian matchup. McMillian has been just as good as Surtain, allowing eight receptions on 11 targets, but for only 63 receiving yards. By all accounts, this is a bad matchup for the Eagles' already struggling passing game. However, when they decide to turn it on, as they did against the Rams, they prove they can still be effective. However, where we saw an edge for slot receivers against Denver is the yards after the catch. While they allow a bottom-half catch rate, the Broncos allow the 11th-most YAC yards (4.6) to slot receivers. So, call me crazy, but we think Smith will be used more this week.

Suggested pick:

DeVonta Smith o18.5 Longest Recpetion (-115)

 

TE Dallas Goedert

Goedert has been the only actual consistent receiving option for the Eagles this season. Through his three games, he has caught 12 of his 13 targets, averaging 38 receiving yards per game. The Broncos struggled against the TE position last season, but have cleaned that up this season, allowing the seventh-fewest receptions (3.8) and the 14th-fewest receiving yards (44) to the position per game. Goedert lines up in the slot and in-line on 92.4% of his routes. Against those alignments, the Broncos are allowing 87 receiving yards and 10.88 yards per reception this season. If we're anticipating the Eagles' passing offence to get going more this week, Hurts should start by giving his most consistent receiver this year, Dallas Goedert, the ball early and often.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert o34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

This all hinges on the Eagles figuring it out on offence. They've had a tricky schedule thus far, but they only really needed to turn it on offensively against the Rams when they were trailing big at the half. The Broncos rank in the top half of the league in first half points, so if they do start slow, expect a surge in the second quarter. Regardless, despite two good defences, we like both offences to shine in this game.

 

Best Bet: Over 43.5
Lean: Broncos +4
Score Prediction: 28-27 Eagles

Anytime TD Picks

 

Best Pick: (Broncos): Courtland Sutton TD (+180)

The guy just can't stop scoring TDs. He has found the endzone in three of four weeks this year, and gets an Eagles defence that allows the ninth-most receiving TDs (3) to outside WRs. Philadelphia has allowed a TD to opposing WRs in three straight games.

 

Best Pick: (Eagles): Jalen Hurts TD (-140)

The Broncos really haven't allowed too many TDs this season, but they haven't faced an offence like the Eagles. Especially a QB who uses his legs just like Hurts does. Hurts missed the end zone last week, but he did not go two games in a row without a rushing TD in the entire regular season last year.

 

1st Touchdown

 

Best Pick: (Broncos) RJ Harvey First TD (+1800)

Last week, I was impressed to see how much Harvey was utilized in the first quarter. And it's not like he passed Dobbins in 1Q usage, but both backs had two rush attempts for eight rushing yards. Following the game, Sean Payton mentioned that he wants to use Dobbins as more of a closer, which would suggest a lesser workload in the first half and a bigger workload in the second half. With that in mind, we'll take our shot on Harvey to find the endzone first in this game.

 

Best Pick: (Eagles) AJ Brown First TD (+900)

I mentioned it earlier, but a squeaky wheel game is coming for the Eagles' top WR. They didn't really try to get him going early last week, as Brown saw just one target on the opening three drives of the game. Expect that to change this week.

Parlay 1: (Broncos) +230 odds on bet365

Denver Broncos +7.5

Bo Nix 30+ Pass Attempts

Courtland Sutton 50+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 2: (Eagles) +260 odds on bet365

Philadelphia Eagles ML

Jalen Hurts 200+ Passing Yards

AJ Brown 50+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 3: Lotto (+1500)

JK Dobbins 50+ Rushing Yards

Courtland Sutton 80+ Receiving Yards

Dallas Goedert 50+ Receiving Yards

QB Dak Prescott

No CeeDee Lamb and a tough Packers defence didn't slow Dak down, as he finished 31/40 for 319 passing yards and three PTDs, while adding a two-yard rushing TD on the ground. This week, he gets the Jets, who allow the fifth-fewest completions (16.3), the sixth-fewest pass attempts (27.8) and the 11th-fewest passing yards (208.5) to opposing QBs per game. New York runs the seventh-most man coverage (34.4%), more specifically, the seventh-most Cover 1 and sixth-most Cover 2. Dak has faced the seventh-most dropbacks (49) against man coverage this season, to which he averages the 20th-highest completion percentage (56.8%), the 14th-fewest yards per attempt (6.0), and the seventh-fewest QBR (63.1) of all the 36 QBs who have faced at least 10 dropbacks against the coverage. His numbers get worse in Cover 1, completing just 50% of his passes, a 4.90 yards per attempt and a 47.5 QBR. But he drastically improves against Cover 2, completing 79.4% of his passes, 7.47 yards per attempt and a 97.8 QBR, all of which rank in the top 14. Something I noticed about Dak is that he airs it out a lot against man coverage, as he has the seventh-most air yards (396) so far this season. Which sets up well for Prescott in this matchup, as the Jets allow the ninth-highest yards per attempt (7.51) and the ninth-highest yards per attempt against man coverage (7.3). And although Lamb is out, Dak still has two deep threats in Pickens and Turpin that he can connect with deep this week.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott o34.5 Longest Pass Completion (-115)

 

RB Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams continues to break out for his new team this season. He's currently sixth in the NFL in total rushing yards, and he should continue to move up the ranks this week against the Jets' defence, who allow the most rush attempts (26.8) and the 10th most rushing yards (100.8) per game to opposing RBs. Through the air, the Jets do well at limiting opposing RBs, allowing the fewest receptions (3.0) and the fourth-fewest receiving yards (16.5) per game. New York mostly runs zone concept rush defence, at 53.9% of the time. That's good for the seventh-most in the league, and allows a 4.53 yards per carry. Funny enough, they do better in man/gap rush defence, allowing the fewest yards per carry (1.89) per game to opposing RBs. Javonte should have another great day on the ground, but his rushing attempts this week are just far too low in this matchup. The Jets have allowed James Cook, Bucky Irving, and Devon Achane to rush for 20+ attempts in three straight weeks.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams o16.5 Rush Attempts (-130)

 

WR George Pickens

Pickens did a phenomenal job stepping up in Lamb's absence, catching eight of 11 targets for 134 receiving yards and two TDs – doing all of that against a tough Packers defence. This week, Pickens will get the Jets' defence, who allow the 10th-fewest receptions (10.5), but the 11th-most receiving yards (154.5) per game to opposing WRs. This would indicate the Jets rank among the highest yards per reception in the league, and that holds true, as they allow the seventh-highest yards per reception (13.04) per game to WRs. So, looking at this, you'd imagine Pickens would catch a deep ball this week, right? Well, not too fast. Pickens runs 91.8% of his snaps from out wide. The Jets allow the LOWEST aDoT (8.0) in the entire NFL, but the second-highest yards after catch (6.55) per reception to outside WRs. Pickens has the highest aDoT on the Cowboys, but the fifth-highest yards after catch (3.7) of the eight Cowboys receivers with at least 10 targets. However, that's not to say we don't think Pickens will have a good game as Dak's number one option.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens 60+ Receiving Yards (-180)

 

WR Jalen Tolbert

With Kavontae Turpin sitting out practices this week, this has given Jalen Tolbert more opportunity to solidify his No. 2 role with CeeDee on the shelf. Tolbert caught four of his six targets last week for 61 receiving yards. Tolbert lined up all over the field last week: 61.8% out wide and 38.2% in the slot. With Turpin likely missing this week, Tolbert's out wide snaps should increase, meaning he should face a similar matchup to Pickens. In fact, Tolbert might even have the better matchup, as he has the lower aDoT (11.2) and can use his 4.49 40-time speed to churn in more YAC yards against a team allowing so much YAC. However, we shouldn't expect heavy volume, as Tolbert has caught just one of his four targets against Cover 1 and Cover 2, resulting in just five receiving yards. With Tolbert expected to see an increase in outside snaps, he should draw the Brandon Stephens matchup. Stephens has been pretty locked down over the last two weeks, allowing four receptions on seven targets for just 12 receiving yards. However, Tolbert should be able to use his speed, exploit his matchup against Stephens, and grab a long reception in this matchup.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Tolbert o17.5 Longest Reception (-120)

 

TE Jake Ferguson

Ferguson has been Dak's go-to target over these past two weeks. He has 20 of his 21 targets for 122 receiving yards and one TD. The Jets are pretty good against TEs, allowing the 11th-fewest receptions (3.8) and the ninth-fewest receiving yards (37.5) per game. On the season, Ferguson lines up mainly in the slot, seeing 52.2% of his routes from that position. However, since the Lamb injury, Ferguson has lined up regularly in-line, at 50.7%. Against slot receivers, New York allows the 11th-lowest catch rate (68.6%), but the highest yards per reception (13.33) and yards after catch per reception (7.88). Against in-line receivers, the Jets allow a 77.8% catch rate, an 8.43 yards per reception and the sixth-highest yards after catch (7.0) per reception. Against Cover 1 and Cover 2 this season, Ferguson laps his teammates in terms of targets with 21, while the second active receiver has just 10. So, regardless of where he lines up, Ferguson should continue to roll. Ferguson has registered 40+ receiving yards in three straight weeks.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson 40+ Receiving Yards (-145)

QB Justin Fields

Fields is averaging 157 passing yards per game, 7.85 YPA, a 65% completion rate, and 2 total passing TDs. He’s added 59.3 rushing yards per game on the ground and 3 rushing TDs. He’ll face a Cowboys defense that has the worst EPA/Pass allowed and the most passing yards in the league. However, I’m not so sure that matters, as the Jets have the highest rush rate over expected. The Cowboys have the 7^th lowest blitz rate and the 4^th longest time to pressure (2.90 seconds). Fields is averaging 7.20 YPA and a 68.3% completion rate when not blitzed. The Cowboys primary 2 coverages have been Cover 3 (39.9%) and Cover 2 (24.2%). Fields is averaging 8.13 YPA and a 69.2% completion rate against these 2 coverages, positive splits. The Cowboys have allowed the 6^th most rushing yards to QB. They recently allowed Jordan Love to rush for 28 yards on the 3 rush attempts. Hurts rushed 14 times for 62 yards in this matchup week 1, the closest comp to Fields. I lean over on both passing and rushing.

Suggested Pick:

Over 241.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-115)

275+ Passing + Rushing Yards (+174)

300+ Passing + Rushing Yards (+290)

Anytime Touchdown (+125)

 

RB Breece Hall

Hall got back on track week 4, rushing for 81 yards and receiving 30. He should be in line for more work as Braelon Allen suffered a knee injury. Isaiah Davis will draw snaps in Allen’s replacement, but Breece likely gets his goal line role back. Breece is averaging 59.5 rushing yards per game on 4.58 YPC. He has an 11.5% explosive run rate, highest amongst RBs with 25+ carries. He’ll face a Cowboys defense that ranks 7^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed. They are allowing 4.01 YPC, which ranks in the middle of the pack. 82.7% of Hall’s attempts have been zone concept. He’s averaging 4.63 YPC with a 46.5% success rate. The Cowboys are allowing 3.49 YPC (11^th lowest) but a 54.7% success rate allowed (5^th highest) against zone concept. In terms of the receiving matchup, the Cowboys have allowed the 3^rd most receiving yards to RB. They also allow the highest backfield target rate (22.8%). Breece ran a route on 48.6% of dropbacks last week, highest of the season. The Cowboys primary 2 coverages have been Cover 3 (39.9%) and Cover 2 (24.2%). Breece is averaging 2.61 YPRR and 30% TPRR against these 2 coverages. That compares to 1.05 YPRR and 29% TPRR against all other coverages.

Suggested Pick:

Over 95.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115)

Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

40+ Receiving Yards (+235)

50+ Receiving Yards (+425)

Anytime TD (+110)

 

WR Garrett Wilson

Through 4 weeks, Wilson is averaging 77.8 receiving yards per game, 2.34 YPRR, has been targeted on 27% of his routes and has a 1^st-read rate of 46.9% (#1 in the league).  He’ll face a Cowboys defense that ranks worst in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the most receiving yards per game. The Cowboys primary 2 coverages have been Cover 3 (39.9%) and Cover 2 (24.2%). Wilson has negative splits against these 2 coverages, averaging 1.55 YPRR and 21% TPRR. That compares to 3.45 YPRR and 36% TPRR against all other coverages. Garrett Wilson has lined up out wide on 57.9% of his routes and in the slot on 42.1%. The Cowboys are dead last in EPA/Pass allowed and have allowed the most receiving yards per game to wide alignment. They are 6^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed to the slot but 15^th in receiving yards allowed to that alignment.

Suggested Pick:

Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Anytime Touchdown (+140)

 

WR Josh Reynolds

Reynolds has played 2 games as the Jets wide receiver 2 but has caught just 2 of 5 targets for 18 total yards. He’s being targeted on just 10% of his routes as this passing offense runs through Garrett Wilson. The Jets have the highest rush rate over expected and even getting the best possible matchup for receiving against the Cowboys, it is tough to have any faith in Reynolds. The Jets rookie TE Mason Taylor also had his breakout game last week, so Reynolds becomes the 4^th/5^th option in a low volume passing attack. I’ll pass.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

TE Mason Taylor

Through 3 weeks, the Jets rookie tight end ran a route on 71.8% of dropbacks but averaged just 14.3 receiving yards per game. He was targeted on just 12% of his routes. Week 4 was his breakout week. He caught 5 of 7 targets for 65 receiving yards. He was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate and target share at 33.3% and 25.9% respectively. The Jets don’t have a true WR2, so I’d expect Taylor to continue to produce. He’ll face a Cowboys defense that ranks worst in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the most receiving yards per game. The Cowboys primary 2 coverages have been Cover 3 (39.9%) and Cover 2 (24.2%). Taylor has positive splits against these 2 coverages, averaging 1.71 YPRR and 21% TPRR. That compares to 0.21 YPRR and 10% TPRR against all other coverages. Taylor has primarily lined up from inline and in the slot, at 52% and 35% rates respectively. The Cowboys are 10^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and have allowed the 13^th most receiving yards to inline targets. They are 6^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed to the slot but 15^th in receiving yards allowed to that alignment.

Suggested Pick:

Over 2.5 Receptions (-170)

4+ Receptions (+148)

5+ Receptions (+310)

The Jets are terrible. Give me the Cowboys in a close game

Best Bet: Under 48.5 -110
Lean: Cowboys ML -150
Score Prediction: Cowboys 27 Jets 20

Anytime TD Picks

 

Best Pick: (Cowboys): Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+155)

We took Ferguson for a TD last week, and he came through. Why change it up now? Ferguson has earned the fifth most targets – three of the four players in front of him played on Thursday night. The Jets allow the most receiving TDs (0.8) to opposing TDs per game this season – including two to Darren Waller just last week.

 

Breece Hall (Jets) +115

Breece has yet to score a touchdown this season, but with the Braelon Allen injury, I expect him to finally find an endzone in a game the Jets are implied to score 22.25 points. The Cowboys gave up 2 rushing TDs to Josh Jacobs last week. They are worst in success rate against Breece’s zone heavy rush concepts. This is the week!

 

1st Touchdown

 

Best Pick: (Cowboys) Javonte Williams First TD (+550)

Javonte has scored a TD in three of four games this season, but has four total on the season, averaging one per game. In Week 1, Javonte scored the first TD of the game on the team's opening drive. The Jets have allowed the first TD in all four games, including one to a RB: James Cook.

 

Breece Hall (Jets) +650

Same analysis as above, larger role for Breece after Allen’s injury, especially at the goal line. They preferred Braelon there, but that will be Breece’s role now. The Jets have the highest rush rate over expected. They will pound the rock, especially in a neutral game script in the first quarter. This is the week!

Parlay 1: (Cowboys) +260 odds on bet365

Dallas Cowboys ML

Javonte Williams 15+ Rush Attempts

Jake Ferguson 40+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: (Jets) +364 on Fanduel

Breece Hall 25+ Receiving Yards

Breece Hall Anytime Touchdown

Justin Fields Over 244.5 Passing + Rushing Yards

QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith continues to walk a fine line between playmaker and liability. His Week 4 showing against the Bears was another example, throwing for only 117 yards but managing two touchdown passes alongside three interceptions. That marked the second time in four games he’s been picked off three times. Despite the volatility, this week sets up well for Geno to rebound. The Colts’ defense has been beaten regularly through the air, giving up the 11th-most passing yards per game at 236.5 and the fifth-most passing touchdowns at 2.0 per contest. Matthew Stafford just put up 375 yards and three scores against them. Indianapolis relies heavily on zone coverage, playing it on more than 70 percent of snaps, and Geno has always looked more comfortable against zone looks where he can throw to space instead of having to hit tight man windows. With Jakobi Meyers strong against zone and Tre Tucker providing speed on the perimeter, Geno should have a chance to attack this secondary for multiple touchdowns. The best angle is on him throwing at least two scores.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Pass TDs (+115)

 

RB Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty finally looked like the explosive runner the Raiders envisioned, running through the Bears for 138 yards and three total touchdowns. Beyond the box score, he was dominant in forcing missed tackles, recording 10 on the day while also showing big-play ability with a 64-yard touchdown run. The Colts present a more disciplined challenge, allowing the 11th-fewest rushing yards to backs at 78.8 per game. Yet the advanced metrics reveal cracks in their front seven, particularly in adjusted yards before contact, where they rank 5th worst at 2.48 yards. That suggests backs can regularly reach the second level before being hit, a dangerous formula against Jeanty, who thrives after contact. Even if the yardage isn’t as gaudy as last week, Jeanty’s usage near the goal line and role as the feature back make him the likeliest Raider to score in this game. Betting on him to find the end zone at any point makes sense given his workload and style.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (-130)

 

WR Jakobi Meyers

Jakobi Meyers has seen his production dip in recent weeks as Geno’s erratic play has capped his opportunities, but this matchup gives him a strong chance to bounce back. Meyers spends over 60 percent of his routes from the slot, and the Colts have consistently struggled to contain slot receivers, allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to the position at just over 90. We saw that vulnerability exposed last week when Puka Nacua shredded them for 170 yards and a touchdown. Meyers has thrived against zone coverage, with a 24.8 percent target rate and over 200 receiving yards on 105 routes in those situations. With Indianapolis deploying zone on more than 70 percent of snaps, Meyers should be able to exploit the soft spots underneath and move the chains consistently. His profile in this matchup points to him going over 59.5 receiving yards.

Suggested Play:

'O' 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Tre Tucker

Tre Tucker has been inconsistent this season, with one massive breakout game sandwiched between quiet outings. While his target share is not large, his skill set as a deep threat makes him dangerous in a game like this. The Colts have shown vulnerability to explosive plays on the perimeter, most notably last week when Tutu Atwell burned them for an 88-yard touchdown. Tucker has been much more effective against zone coverage, tallying 185 yards on 100 routes, compared to much lower efficiency against man. Given that Indianapolis leans on zone looks over 70 percent of the time, Tucker should see a chance or two downfield. Even if his overall reception total is low, one well-timed deep shot could cash. The cleanest approach is backing him to record a long reception over 21.5 yards.

Suggested Play:

'O' 19.5 Yard Longest Reception (-115)

 

TE Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers remains a focal point of the offense but has clearly been limited by the knee issue he suffered early in the season. In each of the past three games, he has hovered in the same range: four or five catches and around 40-something yards. His route share remains strong, but the explosive after-the-catch ability hasn’t fully returned. The Colts defend tight ends reasonably well, allowing the 15th-fewest yards per game at 44.3 and rarely giving up big chunk plays to the position. While Chig Okonkwo did manage 66 yards against them a couple weeks ago, that came on a handful of broken coverages rather than consistent opportunities. With Indianapolis mixing man and zone at average levels, Bowers will likely see linebackers and safeties crowding the short zones, forcing him into the same low-yardage role he’s been stuck in for weeks. Until he shows signs of being back to full strength, the safer angle is to play him under 49.5 yards.

Suggested Play:

'U' 50.5 Receiving Yards (+100)

QB Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones is enjoying an impressively efficient start to his 2024 campaign, placing him among the league's top-tier quarterbacks after four games. Among 27 signal-callers who have played every contest, Jones boasts really good numbers, ranking 3rd in passing yards per game (269.5), 4th in completion rate (71.9%), 3rd in yards per attempt (8.91), and an excellent 8th in passer rating (103.3). He's been productive in the red zone, tallying 4 passing touchdowns against just 2 interceptions, and has added 3 rushing touchdowns. Although his usage on the ground has steadily declined from 7 carries in Week 1 to just 1 in Week 4, suggesting more reliance on his arm. His offensive line, while not dominant, provides solid protection, ranking 16th in pass block grading. This week, Jones faces a Las Vegas Raiders defense that deploys zone coverage at an unprecedented rate of 93.3%. While Jones' overall efficiency against zone coverage remains high with a 73% completion rate, it's worth noting a slight uptick in his turnover-worthy throw rate (4.5% against zone compared to his season average of 3.3%). The Raiders' pass defense, however, has been far from stellar, allowing the 10th most passing yards per game (237) and the 15th highest passer rating (93.3). Their pass rush also presents less of a threat, ranking 21st in sack rate (5.4%) and 16th in pressure rate (39.6%), which could give Jones more time in the pocket. Michael Pittman, who landed on the injury report with a hamstring issue, will be key to monitor as the Colts #1 pass catcher. Despite Jones’ lack of rushing lately, the market has set a "really nice low line" for his rushing yards this week. We know it’s a part of what he provides and I’m expecting him to use his legs more this season. That’s the angle I like here.

 Suggested Picks
‘O’ 15.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

 

RB Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor is currently having an exceptional season, solidifying his status as arguably the league's top running back with elite production across the board. Among all running backs with at least 35 rushing attempts, Taylor leads the league with 103.5 rushing yards per game, ranks 5th in yards per carry (5.38), and is second in yards after contact per attempt (3.23). While his explosive run rate (3.9%, 20th) and stuff rate (44.2%, 23rd) are not as dominant as his other metrics, his overall efficiency and consistent play are outstanding and we know Taylor boasts big play potential. He's been a prolific scorer with three rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown this season, and he benefits from a solid offensive line that ranks 11th in run block grading. However, this week's matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders presents a tougher challenge. The Raiders have been very solid against the run, ranking 20th in rushing yards allowed per game (102.8), 19th in yards per carry allowed (4.03), and 8th in limiting yards after contact per attempt (2.38). They are also effective at preventing explosive runs (23rd in explosive run rate allowed at 2.9%) and excel at stuffing runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, boasting the 10th highest stuff rate (46.5%). As 6.5-point favorites, the Colts could potentially establish a comfortable lead early in the game, especially if the Raiders' offense continues to struggle. We've seen the Colts' willingness to involve other backs like Giddens when playing with a significant lead, and they also utilize quarterback Daniel Jones's legs and receivers like Dulin and Warren for occasional rushing attempts. With the rushing attempts line set as high as 19.5, there's a strong possibility that Taylor might not hit that mark if the game script favors a pass-heavy approach in the second half or if other players are given carries to manage the clock.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 19.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)

 

WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Michael Pittman Jr. has been a consistent and reliable target for the Indianapolis Colts through the first four weeks, establishing himself as a high-volume, high-efficiency receiver. He's accumulated 21 receptions for 234 yards on 29 targets, boasting a 72% catch rate. Pittman operates with a relatively short aDOT (average depth of target) of 5.1 yards, but he commands a significant 26.7% target share and accounts for 20% of the team's total receiving yardage, averaging 9.00 yards per reception. Importantly, he's been a red zone threat, securing 3 touchdowns on the season. A major positive for his outlook this week is that after initially being questionable with a hamstring injury, he has since been upgraded to no injury designation, signaling he is fully healthy and ready to go. This week's matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders presents a favorable scenario for Pittman and the Colts' passing attack. The Raiders have shown vulnerability against the pass, allowing the 10th most receiving yards per game (237.0), the 11th highest yards per reception (11.02), and the 17th highest catch rate (69.4%). This indicates a secondary that can be exploited by opposing receivers. Furthermore, the Raiders possess a stout run defense but lack a consistent pass rush, ranking 24th in pass rush grading. This combination suggests that quarterback Daniel Jones should have ample time in the pocket to diagnose the defense and deliver accurate throws to his receivers. Pittman has unequivocally proven himself as the clear WR1 in this offense, consistently drawing targets and converting them into production. Given his high catch rate and relatively short aDOT, he is perfectly positioned to take advantage of the Raiders' susceptible pass defense and lack of pass rush.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-150)

 

WR Josh Downs
No Alec Pierce again this week, making Downs the clear WR2 in this offense again. Did Downs take advantage last week? Not really, with a stat line of 4 receptions on 5 targets for 24 yards. He’s another shorter game WR for IND, holding a 7.8 aDOT and 8.6 yards per reception. He’s still managed 4+ receptions in two of his last three games and could be involved in a more passing heavy game, given LV’s stoutness against the run. Downs is running routes on 96.4% of snaps and has the 3rd most passing snaps in this offense, only behind Pittman and Warren. He should continue to be involved. Downs isn’t a great separation guy, but with a poor pash rush by LVR, he should have ample time to get open.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-105)

 

TE Tyler Warren
Warren has already established himself as an elite option at the tight end position and as one of the top two options in this passing offense. He holds 6+ targets in  3 of 4 games and 70+ receiving yards in three as well. The Raiders have been extremely stingy against TE’s so far this season - allowing just 12 receptions on 22 targets (54% catch rate) and 167 yards. They have yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end this season yet. However, Cole Kmet, Zach Ertz, Will Dissly and Hunter Henry don’t make a murderers row of amazing TE to match up against. Warren is likely matchup proof at this point and LVR will have to focus on stopping the run to stay in this game. They are drawing up plays for Warren and looking to get him involved early. Warren is a focal part of this offense and if they are going to have to throw, Warren will be involved.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-130)

Colts bouceback here. This team is legit

Best Bet: Colts -6.5 -110 
Lean: Colts 'O' 26.5 -165
Score Prediction: Raiders 14 Colts 30

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Raiders): Ashton Jeanty -130

Ashton Jeanty finally broke through with 138 rushing yards and three total touchdowns against the Bears, showcasing his tackle-breaking ability and big-play upside. The Colts are tougher against the run, giving up just 78.8 rushing yards per game to backs, but they struggle at the line of scrimmage, ranking fifth-worst in adjusted yards before contact. That weakness plays directly into Jeanty’s style, as he thrives once he gets past the first wave of defenders. His role as the feature back and primary goal-line option makes him the best bet to score for the Raiders, so taking him for an anytime touchdown is the sharp angle.

Best Bet (Colts): Michael Pittman +175
Pittman has scored 3 times in 4 games and LVR might be more beatable through the air this week, deapite an elite IND ground game. Pittman leads the team in redzone targets this season and he matches up well against this defense.

1st Touchdown

Longshot (Raiders): Tre Tucker +1830

Tre Tucker has quickly carved out a reputation as the Raiders’ most dangerous deep threat, and that makes him an intriguing candidate to strike first against the Colts. Even after a quiet showing last week, he still accounts for nearly a fifth of the team’s targets and almost a quarter of their air yards, proof that Geno Smith isn’t shy about testing defenses with him downfield. Indianapolis just gave up an 88-yard score to Tutu Atwell, highlighting their vulnerability to speed on the perimeter. With Tucker already one of the only Raiders to find the end zone this season, he stands out as a strong option to deliver the game’s opening touchdown if Geno takes an early shot.

Best Bet (Colts): Tyler Warren +900
Warren has yet to have a touchdown and LVR has yet to allow a tight end to score. However, Warren is an elite option and the second most looked at option in this passing game. Colts are favored to score first, as the -6.5 spread would suggest. Why can't it be Warren? He's second in redzone targets on this team and has shown big play ability.

Parlay #1 Raiders +465

Geno Smith 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs

Ashton Jeanty ATD

Tre Tucker 'O' 19.5 Yard Longest Reception

Parlay #2 (Colts) +982
Jonathan Taylor under 88.5 Rushing Yards
Daniel Jones 30+ Rushing Yards
Daniel Jones TD

Parlay #3 (Colts) +385
 Michael Pittman over 4.5 Receptions
Tyler Warren 50+ Receiving Yards
Tyler Warren TD

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Through 4 games, Tua is averaging 188 passing yards per game, 6.6 YPA and has a 69.3% completion rate. He’s thrown 7 TDs and 4 interceptions. He’ll face a Panthers defense that ranks 16^th in EPA/Pass allowed and they are allowing the 10^th fewest passing yards per game. The Panthers have the 3^rd lowest pressure rate (30.2%). Tua averages 7.18 YPA and a 73.8% completion rate when not pressured, compared to 4.97 YPA and a 56.7% completion rate when pressured. The Dolphins lost Tyreek Hill for the season last week, it’ll be interesting how this offense looks going forward. Tua has averaged 204.2 passing yards in his last 10 games without Tua. These games date back to 2021, so they may not be all that relevant. The Panthers have played Cover 3 at the 2^nd highest rate through 4 weeks (45.7%). Tua is averaging 7.54 YPA and has a 57.7% completion rate against Cover 3. He’s averaging 6.32 YPA and a 72.7% completion rate against all other coverages. This game will take place in Carolina. Tua has averaged 221.8 passing yards per game in his last 10 road games, compared to 253.3 passing yards per game in his last 10 home games. I’m expecting the Dolphins to lean on their run game in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Under 223.5 Passing Yards (-117)

Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)

 

RB De’Von Achane

Achane is averaging 61.5 rushing yards per game on 4.92 YPC. He had his best game on the ground this season against the Jets last week, rushing 20 times for 99 yards and a touchdown. This was the Dolphins first win of the season. With Tyreek Hill out for the season, the Dolphins may lean on the run game. This is a good matchup to do so. The Panthers rank 12^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed and are allowing the 10^th most rushing yards per game. They are allowing the 6^th most yards per carry (4.88). They have specifically struggled against zone concept, allowing 6.05 YPC (T-1^st most). 66% of Achane’s attempts have come in zone concept, where he averages 4.67 YPC. He has been more productive in man/gap concept, averaging 5.43 YPC and a 50% success rate. Turning to the receiving game, Achane is averaging 4.8 receptions and 35.8 receiving yards per game. He was held in check last week, catching 1 of 2 targets for 2 yards. Bijan Robinson and Trey Benson both did well in the receiving game against the Panthers, with 39 and 30 yards respectively. I prefer rushing here as the Panthers struggle against the Dolphins zone run concepts and the Dolphins are 1.5-point favorites.

Suggested Pick:

Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR Jaylen Waddle

Waddle is averaging 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.75 YPRR, has been targeted on 22% of his routes and has a 1^st-read rate of 25.6%. Tyreek Hill suffered a brutal injury last week, ending his season. Waddle now operates as the clear WR1. Waddle averages 6.8 receptions and 77.3 receiving yards in his last 10 games without Tyreek. These games date back to 2021, so I’d take this with a grain of salt. However, looking at Miami since they acquired Hill, we can look at Waddle’s splits with Tyreek on and off the field. Waddle is averaging 2.81 YPRR and 28% TPRR with him off the field. That compares to 2.01 YPRR and 20% TPRR with Tyreek on the field. This should be a massive upgrade for Waddle rest of season based on volume. From a matchup perspective, the Panthers rank 16^th in EPA/Pass allowed and the 10^th fewest receiving yards per game. The Panthers have the 3^rd lowest pressure rate (30.2%). Waddle averages 2.32 YPRR, 29% TPRR and a 26.1% 1^st-read rate when Tua has not been pressured. The Panthers have played Cover 3 at the 2^nd highest rate through 4 weeks (45.7%). Waddle averages 1.92 YPRR and 23% TPRR against Cover 3 this season.

Suggested Pick:

Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Malik Washington

Washington is 3^rd on the team in receiving, averaging 11.8 receiving yards per game. With Tyreek Hill out for the season, Malik is expected to see a larger role in this offense. The one concern here is that Malik has run 55.3% of his routes from the slot. If he doesn’t see a larger role outside, he may not have a full-time role as the Dolphins are not a heavy 11 personnel team (53.1% of snaps). When Tyreek went down, Westbrook-Ikhine was on the field for 80% of dropbacks, while Washing was on the field for 60%. From a matchup perspective, the Panthers rank 16^th in EPA/Pass allowed and the 10^th fewest receiving yards per game. I would be more intrigued with Malik, but at a line of 28.5 and uncertainty for increased playing time, I’ll pass.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

TE Darren Waller

Waller caught 3 of 4 targets for 27 yards and 2 touchdowns in his first game since 2023 with the Giants. Waller ran a route on 37% of dropbacks and we would expect that to rise in his 2^nd week back, especially with the season ending injury to Tyreek Hill. Waller lined up 40% out wide, 40% in the slot and 20% inline. The Panthers have allowed the 2^nd most receiving yards to TE this season. Last time we saw Waller was with the Giants, where he averaged 45 receiving yards per game, 1.69 YPRR and was targeted on 22% of his routes. The Panthers have played Cover 3 at the 2^nd highest rate through 4 weeks (45.7%). Waller averaged 2.31 YPRR and 25% TPRR in 2023 against Cover 3. This is a bullish matchup for Waller in what should be an increased role.

Suggested Pick:

Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

Anytime TD (+275)

QB Bryce Young

It goes without saying that it’s been a rough start to the ’25 season for Bryce Young. The Panthers quarterback has a cumulative QBR of 41.8 through the first 4 weeks of the year. Last week, Young completed 18 of 30 passes (60.0% CMP) for just 150 yards and a TD. It’s still relatively early but Joe Flacco (5.1) and Cam Ward (4.9) are the only QBs with a lower YPPA than Bryce Young. There could be light at the end of the tunnel for Young when he faces a Dolphins defense who is allowing a league-high 76.7% completion rate, 8.7 YPPA (2nd highest) and 6.5% TD rate (5th highest). Miami’s pass defense has been lit up by Daniel Jones (272-TD), Drake Maye (230-2TD), Josh Allen (213-3TD) and Justin Fields (226-TD) to start the season, and to top it off they’re allowing 40.8 rush yards/gm to opposing QBs. In week 1, Bryce Young ran for 40 yards, but he’s totaled just 13 over the past three weeks combined. The Dolphins rely primarily on Cover-2 (30.8%), Cover-3 (23.8%) and Cover-1 (16.2) on defense. Against these coverage schemes Young has completed 52 of 88 passes (59.1% CMP) for 119.8 YPG, while throwing 2 TD and 1 INT. The CAR quarterback has also scrambled 6 times for 43 yards. I may not say this again for the rest of the season, but I really like Bryce Young’s passing yards prop this week. Not only does Tetairoa McMillan have a great matchup this week, but Rico Dowdle should help in aiding Young’s yardage total this week as MIA is allowing 53.0 receiving yards (4th most) to opposing RBs this season.

Suggested Bet:

Bryce Young 200+ Pass Yards (-147)

Bryce Young 220+ ALT Pass Yards (+115)

Bryce Young 240+ ALT Pass Yards (+194)

 

RB Rico Dowdle

Rico Dowdle will get the start in place of Chubba Hubbard who is expected to miss week 5. The Panthers backup has been limited to only 33 touches out of the backfield this season, where he is averaging 3.1 yards per touch, but he will get a full workload on Sunday. Dowdle has a matchup conducive for a good game as is allowing 4.7 YPC (8th most) to opposing RBs to go with 163.0 total YPG (4th most) out of the backfield. This is a spot where Dowdle could rack up some really solid numbers, but his lack of production when he has been on the field this year is too big of a question mark for laying money down on his yardage totals. With that said, I do like Dowdle to catch some balls out of the backfield for Carolina this week. The Dolphins are giving up 53.0 receiving YPG (4th most) and 5.5 receptions (9th most) to opposing RBs.

Suggested Bet:

Rico Dowdle (Reception props not yet available)

 

WR Tetairoa McMillan

We’ve been waiting on “that” game for Tetairoa McMillan all season, and Sunday could very well be the one for the Panthers top WR. Still, McMillan’s volume and usage are off the charts heading into week 5. So far, McMillan has earned at least 8 targets in every game, and he has a first-read target share of 29.0%, which has him sitting just behind Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins (31.0%). Obviously, Bryce Young will prevent him from reaching a high ceiling but that doesn’t mean his matchup Sunday against the Dolphins doesn’t have plenty of upside. Miami’s pass defense looks good on paper, but I think this is a product of just how bad their run defense is. When Rico Dowdle has been on the field, he’s only averaging 3.1 yards per touch and if you look deep the numbers reveal several flaws in their pass defense. The Dolphins are allowing 9.6 YPT (8th most), 2.2 YPRR (10th most) and a 12.0% TD-rate (4th most) to opposing teams #1 wide receivers in ’25. There’s no doubt that finding consistency with Bryce Young has been a challenge. Young is completing only 32% of his throws that are 10 yards or more downfield, but McMillan is still getting 25.4% of the overall targets in this offense and 40.6% of the air yards. When facing Miami’s top 3 primary coverage schemes, McMillan’s target rate goes from 25.4% to 28.7% where he has caught 15 of 27 targets for 256 yards (64.0 YPG). It also stand to reason that his usage will rise further without the services of starting RB Chubba Hubbard. Lastly, the Dolphins blitz at a 39.2% rate (4th highest) and McMillan’s target share grows to 33.3% when Young is blitzed. McMillan gets 8+ TPG, has posted 62+ receiving yards in 3 of 4 games and has the 8th best coverage grade matchup in week 5. This just feels like the game in which Young and McMillan finally connect. I like the Arizona rookie to put up solid totals this Sunday in both his yardage and reception totals, while finding the end zone for his first career TD.

Suggested Bet:

Tetairoa McMillan 60+ Receiving Yards (-125)

Tetairoa McMillan 5+ Receptions (-143)

Tetairoa McMillan Anytime TD (+155)

 

WR Hunter Renfroe

The personal issues surrounding Hunter Renfroe along with his rumored distractions inside the Carolina locker room seem to be spilling over onto the field. After seeing 6 and 9 targets in the first 2 weeks of the season, Renfroe has posted back-to-back uninspiring performances that have yielded him just 6 total targets, where he’s caught 4 balls for only 16 yards. There are too many negatives interwoven with Renfroe right now to risk your money on.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

 

TE Tommy Tremble

With Ja’Tavion Sanders sidelined last week, Tommy Tremble’s snap share spiked to 75%, where he hauled in 5 of 7 targets for 42 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers TE also came inches away from a second score, but it was wiped out by a penalty. Here is another very interesting trend as it relates to Carolina’s tight production. In the two games Ja’Tavion Sanders has missed over the last two seasons, Tremble has averaged 7.5 targets. Now, he will have the luxury of going up against a Dolphins defense that is allowing 75.5 YPG (Most in NFL) to opposing TEs. Miami also allows 6.0 receptions per game (9th most) to the tight end position. Simply put, the Panthers do not have anything that resembles an established #2 wide receiver. We are still waiting to hear on the status of Ja’Tavion Sanders for week 5. Tight ends account for 28.9% of the receptions against MIA and Tremble was targeted on 30.8% of his routes in week 4. The books have not caught up to this trend and you need to hammer Tremble!!

Suggested Bet:

Tommy Tremble o26.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Tommy Tremble 40+ ALT Receiving Yards (+190)
Tommy Tremble 6+ ALT Receiving Yards (-328)

Tommy Tremble o2.5 Receptions (-155)
Tommy Tremble 4+ ALT Receptions (+149)
Tommy Tremble 5+ ALT Receptions (+338)

In the Panthers first Home game they beat the Falcons 30-0. I think the Dolphins without Tyreek will struggle. Give me the Panthers

Best Bet: Panthers +3.5 -150
Lean: Under 47.5 -150
Score Prediction: Dolphins 20 Panthers 23

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Panthers): Tommy Tremble +330

In 2 games over the past two years that Ja’Tavion Sanders has been out of the lineup, Tommy Tremble has averaged 7.5 targets. Last year, Tremble caught 5 of 8 targets for 77 yards against Tampa Bay when Sanders was sidelined, and last week Tremble caught 5 of 8 targets for 42 yards and a TD. Miami allows the most receiving yards (75.5/gm) and 2nd most TDs to opposing TEs. We still do not yet know the official status of Sanders, but if he is unable to go Tremble is a great play for an Anytime TD at home.

 

Darren Waller (Dolphins) +275

Waller scored 2 touchdowns on 2 end zone targets in his first game since 2023. It’s clear that coach McDaniels convinced Waller to come out of retirement and promised a large role. He ran a route on 37% of dropbacks and that should only increase in his 2^nd game and with Tyreek Hill out for the season. This is a bullish matchup against the Panthers both schematically and position wise.

 

First TD Picks

Best Play (Panthers): Tetairoa McMillan +850

With Chubba Hubbard out this week, it seems a foregone conclusion that Carolina’s offense will run through Tetairoa McMillan. He’s had at least 8+ targets every week and has posted 62 or more receiving yards in 3 out of 4 weeks (including 100 yards in week 2). McMillan will face a Dolphins team who has the league’s worst pass-coverage. This is a great opportunity for the 6’5”, 212 pound receiver to pick up his first TD right out of the gate.

 

Ollie Gordon (Dolphins) +1800

Gordon has received 5 redzone carries in the past 2 weeks, scoring 1 touchdown. This zone run scheme has an advantage against the Panthers weakness, I’d expect a strong game from both Achane and Gordon. Gordon seems to have the goal line role, so I’ll go with him as a longshot.

Parlay #1 (Panthers): +244 (Draft Kings)

Bryce Young 200+ Pass Yards

Tetairoa McMillan 60+ Receiving Yards

Tommy Tremble 25+ Receiving Yards

Tommy Tremble 3+ Receptions

 

Parlay #2 (Panthers Longshot): +1100 (Draft Kings)

Bryce Young 220+ Pass Yards

Tetairoa McMillan 80+ Receiving Yards

Tommy Trembler 40+ Receiving Yards

Tommy Tremble 4+ Receptions

 

Parlay #3 (Dolphins) +773 (Fanduel)

Devon Achane Over 65.5 Rushing Yards

Darren Waller Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

Darren Waller Anytime Touchdown

 

QB Baker Mayfield

Despite missing multiple starters on the offensive line along with star WR Mike Evans, Baker Mayfield still manages to put solid offensive numbers up. He nearly pulled off an improbably comeback against Philadelphia last week, but came up short when he threw his first INT of the season at the most inopportune of times. Still, any hint of regression by Mayfield in his third year in Tampa has been put to rest. Through the first 4 weeks of the '25 season, Mayfield has thrown for 904 yards to go with 8 TD and 1 INT. This Sunday, Tampa Bay will be put to the test when travel out to the west coast to meet the Seahawks. The Seattle defense plays zone-coverage at a 76.4% rate (10th most in NFL). They a nice mix of 5 coverage schemes, but the lean most on Cover-3 (25.9%) and Cover-4 (23.6%). Against these two particular defensive sets Baker Mayfield is 53 of 82 (64.2% CMP) for 553 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT. The offensive line remains an ongoing problem for the Buccaneers, but getting Tristan Wirfs back last week was huge for TB. Seattle's defensive numbers are also a little inflated when you consider they've faced Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler and Aaron Rodgers over the L3 weeks. The Seahawks don't pressure much because they have a very active defensive line that can get to the quarterback, but Mayfield has faced this all year and is no stranger to making big players with either his arm or legs. However, the Bucs are underdogs on the road and this game is likely to be lower scoring. We need to be realistic with Baker's expecations, but time and time again he continues to make big plays and Rachaad White and Cade Otton could both serve as reliable safety blankets this week in a two positions pass-catching positions they struggle against. Considering how difficult it is to run on Seattle, I look for Baker Mayfield to be throwing the ball a lot on the road.

Suggested Bet:

Baker Mayfield o33.5 Pass Attempts (-121)

Baker Mayfield o1.5 Pass TDs (+115)

RB Rachaad White

If you only pay attention to one thing as it pertains to the Tampa Bay portion of this game guide, this is where you need to lock in because Rachaad White is in for a big game as a pass-catching RB. Seattle has been excellent against the run this year, allowing just 71.0 rush YPG (7th fewest) to opposing. On the contrary, they rank dead last in receiving yards and receptions allowed out of the backfield. The Seahawks have surrendered 29 receptions (7.2/gm) and 266 receiving yards (66.5/gm) to pass-catching RBs. They are going to have their hands full with Rachad White on Sunday afternoon. Now, here comes some shocking statistics that's going to have you shaking your head. Since 2023, White ranks 3rd among all NFL RBs in receiving TDs (9), 3rd in yards after catch (1180), 5th in receiving yards (976) and 6th in receptions (123). The Seahawks employ zone defense at a 76.4% rate (10 most), and the main reason for his is they like to keep everything in front of them to avoid allowing big plays in the passing game. This is going to allow White to slip into soft spots, rack up dump-off passes and accumulate receiving yards. Most importantly, the Tampa Bay veteran RB has an opportunity to haul in a big number in the reception department. WIth the exception of Saints RB Alvin Kamara (who has seen his target rate go from 16.2% in '24 to 8.6 in '25), every RB has cleared his reception line against SEA. Christian McCaffrey: 9 rec (3.5 line), Jaylen Warren: 4 rec (1.5 line), Kenneth Gainwell 3 rec (2.5 line), Trey Benson: 5 rec (-2.5 line), Emari Demarcado: 2 rec (1.5 line). To put this in perspective, not only did each clear his respective line, but the five RBs combined for 23 receptions and if you add up all of the total lines they shattered this reception total by 11.5!! You need to hammer Rachaad White, and hammer him hard this Sunday in Seattle.

Suggested Bet:

Rachaad White o24.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Rachaad White o3.5 Receptions (-136)
Rachaad White 5+ ALT Receptions (+151)
Rachaad White 6+ ALT Receptions (+301)

 

WR Emeka Egbuka

Emeka Egbuka has done things most rookies would dream of just 4 weeks into his NFL career. The Buccaneers WR has caught 18 balls for 282 yards, while scoring 4 TD, including a 77-yard bomb last week to help him secure his first ever 100 yard receiving game. Tampa Bay has lined Egbuka up in every position as a WR and he's been productive both in the short game, moving the sticks and as a downfield deep threat. Egbuka won't have an easy matchup this week in Seattle, but he will catch a break with Devon WItherspoon and Julian Love both ruled out for Sunday. Against zone-coverage of which the Seahawks run 76.4% of the time, Egbuka has caught 17 of 25 passes (68.0% catch-rate) for 267 yards and 2 TD. Both Emeka and Chris Godwin were targeted 10 times each last week, but I worry about his volume taking a hit this Sunday with Seattle having major pass-catching issues vs the TE and RB positions. Yet, it seems like we point out a different obstacle every week for Egbuka and he still continues to defy the odds. He's got tremendous speed and while the Seahawks defend extremely well against WRs overall, they've allowed the 8th most yards to the wide-out position. Something else that's of major importance here is SEA has only faced 2 receivers who can match the speed of Egbuka. They are Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) and Rashid Shaheed (NO). The problem is those offenses rarely air the ball out, yet they still combined for 108 yards. Emeka Egbuka has proven himself 4 out of 4 times and that's good enough for me. I'm still going to play this relatively safe and play it with the juice, but I expect the rookie out of Ohio State to perform well against a defense that has faced 3 poor offenses in Arizona, New Orleans and Pittsburgh.

Suggested Bet:

Emeka Egbuka 50+ Receiving Yards (-179)

 

WR Chris Godwin

Chris Godwin returned to the Bucs lineup last Sunday and QB Baker Mayfield wasted no time in getting him involved in the offense. The Penn State alum caught just 3 balls for 26 yards, but there are several positive takeaways the average person won't look at. For starters, any notion of Godwin getting eased back into the offense was shut down quickly as he was on the field for 92% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks. He also saw 10 targets in week 4, matching rookie WR Emeka Egbuka. The only real negative for Godwin is that he played 70% of his snaps out wide. This is a direct result of Mike Evans being sidelined and Sterling Shepard required to play in the slot. The concern at hand here is Godwin has not performed particularly well in this scenario. As I said in my write up of Emeka Egbuka, I think Rachaad White is going to be a big part of the Buccaneers passing game on Sunday, and even Cade Otton to a certain degree. As evidenced last week, Godwin is still shaking off some rust but we're getting a really attainable line on his receptions today, and that's the spot we should be attacking this week.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Godwin o4.5 Receptions (-157)

TE Cade Otton

I really expected more out of Cade Otton last week based on his trends vs Philadelphia, along with the impressive numbers he put up season when the Bucs were shorthanded without Mike Evans. Clearly, I missed badly on that. Now please don't tune me out here, but I believe Otton has real value in his reception total for week 5. First, I made the mistake of looking too much into his history of play against the Eagles and what he did on the field last year without Evans. More time should have been focused on how well Philly has defended the TE position in '25. Through the first 4 weeks of the season, the Eagles have limited opposing tight ends to a grand total of 14 receptions (4th fewest) and 97 yards (3rd fewest). With that said, Otton still caught 3 ball for 9 yards. Now I know these are NOT good numbers, but when you take into consideration that Seattle has allowed an NFL high 31 receptions to the TE position, I like Otton and his line here. If he can haul in 3 passes against the Eagles he can do the same vs the Seahawks. It's also important to point out that while Seattle ranks 1st in TE receptions allowed, they are 11th in yards allowed. This certainly is nothing to brag about, but it is a disparaging number given amount of balls that are caught. This is because the Seahawks play a ton of zone-coverage and do not allow many yards after the catch. Therefore, QBs have used the tight end position as a safety valve to get small yardage gains. There's no way I'm touching Cade Otton's total yards prop, but we're getting a pretty good bargain on his receptions and this is because he has just 6 catches on the year, but again, don't forget he caught 3 balls last week against a top 3 defense vs the TE position. No, Otton did not give us the expected numbers I thought he would, but he did get 4 targets last week and starting tight ends against SEA have caught 20 of 26 targets, and the 6 incompletions are a direct result of Spencer Rattler and Kyler Murray's inability to throw the ball will any degree of accuracy. I'm projecting Cade Otton to get anywhere between 4-6 targets. Mayfield is an accurate passer and he has the ability to buy time. He may only log single digit yards, but Otton will catch 3 balls this Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Cade Otton o2.5 Receptions (-129)
Cade Otton 4+ ALT Receptions (+181)
Cade Otton 5+ ALT Receptions (+415)

QB Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold has enjoyed a remarkably strong start to his 2024 season, positioning himself as one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the league through four games. Among 27 signal-callers with a full slate of starts, Darnold ranks an impressive 13th in passing yards per game (226.3), 7th in completion rate (70.0%), 2nd in yards per attempt (9.05), and 6th in passer rating (106.5). His contribution to the running game has been negligible, with just 2 carries for 14 yards over the first four weeks. He's been productive and relatively careful with the ball, throwing 5 passing touchdowns against only 2 interceptions. His offensive line has provided robust protection, ranking 10th in pass block grading so far. This week, Darnold faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense known for its aggressive approach, blitzing on the 3rd most plays in the league (34.2%). Against the blitz, Darnold averages an impressive 10.7 yards per attempt and a high 15.4 completion percentage over expected. However, this aggression also comes with increased risk, as both of his interceptions this season have occurred when blitzed, and his turnover-worthy play rate jumps from 1.0% to 2.7% against the blitz, accompanied by a slightly lower completion rate (59.5%). The Buccaneers' pass defense has been quite stingy, allowing only 208 passing yards per game (24th in the league), a 64.3% completion rate (20th), and 6.6 yards per attempt (18th). However, the most intriguing aspect of this matchup for betting purposes lies in Darnold's rushing potential, despite his season-long aversion to running. The Buccaneers' aggressive, blitz-heavy scheme has consistently led to opposing quarterbacks using their legs, evidenced by Jalen Hurts (9 carries, 62 yards), Tyrod Taylor (8 carries, 48 yards), C.J. Stroud (4 carries, 27 yards), and Michael Penix Jr. (6 carries, 21 yards) all finding success on the ground against them. Yes, Darnold isn’t a true rusher like Hurts and Tylor, but Stroud and Penix aren’t rushing QB’s but have found some success.

 

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 5.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
10+ Rushing Yards (+142)
15+ Rushing Yards (+265)
20+ Rushing Yards (+450)

 

RB Kenneth Walker III
Kenneth Walker III has displayed a mix of solid, yet not spectacular, production through the first four weeks of the season. Among running backs with at least 35 rushing attempts, Walker ranks 19th in rushing yards per game (61.0) and 17th in yards per carry (4.21). His standout trait, however, is his explosive play ability, as he ranks 4th in explosive run rate (8.6%). Conversely, he's been somewhat susceptible to being stopped for no gain or a loss, ranking 17th in stuff rate (46.6%), and struggles a bit after initial contact, ranking 26th in yards after contact per attempt (1.88). Walker has been a reliable scorer, tallying three rushing touchdowns, and benefits from an offensive line that provides decent run blocking, ranked 15th in the league. This week, Walker faces an exceptionally challenging matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who boast one of the league's stingiest run defenses. The Buccaneers are truly formidable against the ground game, ranking 28th in rushing yards allowed per game (a mere 85.0) and 30th in yards per carry allowed (a suffocating 3.33). They are also adept at preventing big plays, ranking 18th in explosive run rate allowed (3.9%), and excel at stopping runs at the line of scrimmage, with the 6th highest stuff rate (47.5%). Most impressively, they are dead last in the league in yards after contact allowed per attempt (1.37). The Buccaneers' defense has also forced as many fumbles as they've allowed rushing touchdowns (3 each). Walker is back to a split backfield with Zach Charbonnet, which could limit his overall volume. While the Seattle Seahawks are expected to keep this game competitive, or even potentially play with a positive game script, the sheer dominance of the Buccaneers against the run makes this a highly unfavorable spot for Walker to put up significant numbers. Given Tampa Bay's elite run defense, Walker's somewhat inconsistent individual efficiency metrics (outside of explosive runs), and the potential for a split workload, betting the under on Kenneth Walker III's rushing yards is the most logical play.

 

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

RB Zach Charbonnet
Charb was a surprise active last week and totaled 12 carries for 39 yards and the only rushing touchdown. He also tallied a pair of catches for 5 yards. With the extra rest after playing on Thursday night, he’s off the injury report and good to go for week 5. As a runner, he’s been worse than Walker with a 2.46 yards per carry, 2.6% explosive run rate and 1.92 yards after contact per attempt. I’m expecting similar stuffage from a good Bucs defense in this one and we could see a more 50/50 type split between the backs in this one. At times neither of these backs have found space to work with and that’ll likely be the case this week too. Charb will join Walker in the list of fades this week.

 

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is off to an explosive start in his sophomore season, establishing himself as a premier wide receiver and a focal point of the Seahawks' passing attack. Through four weeks, he boasts an impressive 26 receptions (tied for 6th in the NFL) for 402 receiving yards (2nd in the NFL) on just 34 targets, translating to a 76% catch rate. Smith-Njigba is consistently making big plays downfield, evidenced by his high 16.8 aDOT (average depth of target) and an outstanding 18.83 yards per reception. He commands a significant 27.6% target share and an astonishing 59.2% of the team's total receiving yardage. While he has only one touchdown on the season, his consistent volume and explosive playmaking ability make him a constant threat. This week's matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers presents a challenging, yet potentially rewarding, scenario for Smith-Njigba. While the Buccaneers are more susceptible through the air than against the run, they are still a tough pass defense, ranking 23rd in receiving yards allowed per game (208.0), 19th in yards per reception allowed (10.27), and 25th in catch rate allowed (66.4%). However, Smith-Njigba possesses elite characteristics that make him difficult to fade in any matchup, particularly his high target rate and exceptional yards per reception. A crucial factor in this specific contest is Tampa Bay's aggressive pass rush, which ranks 2nd in pressure rate across the league. This plays directly into one of Smith-Njigba's unique strengths: he ranks 2nd among all wide receivers in target rate when the defense generates pressure. This suggests that as quarterback Sam Darnold faces heat from the Buccaneers' defensive front, he is highly likely to look Smith-Njigba's way, providing him with ample targets even against a stingy secondary. Therefore, despite the Buccaneers' overall strength against the pass, Smith-Njigba's elite target volume, exceptional yards per reception, and proven ability to be the go-to guy when the quarterback is under pressure make betting the over on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's receiving yards a very compelling play. 

 

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (-110)
‘O’ 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Cooper Kupp
Kupp’s involvement remains middling. Yes, he trails JSN by a lot, but he does have the 2nd most targets (18) and reception (15) in this offense. He only holds an aDOT of 6.6, yards per reception of 10.8 and yards after the catch per reception of 5.40. Ultimately, he’s used in the shorter area game - more as an outlet pass option. Still there is some value in that, but I’d look at his receptions over receiving yards. Even in a game last week where JSN was kept in check for most of the game, Kupp still only managed 4 catches on 5 targets for 26 yards. Since TB does a good job of limiting  yardage and yards per reception, SEA may opt for a shorter passing attack to help mitigate the blitz. If that’s the case, Kupp should be a big beneficiary.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-149)

 

TE A.J. Barner

Unsurprisingly, TB is also good against opposing TE’s. They rank 10th in fewest receiving yards per game (39.8), 14th in receptions per game (4.75) and 12th in fewest targets per game (6.25). Barner just hasn’t been very involved so far this season, despite being on the field plenty. He has just 7 catches on 9 targets for 81 yards. However, he does have a pair of touchdowns and leads the team in redzone targets (3). As mentioned with Kupp, he could be an outlet pass for Darnold under pressure, but he’s not a player I want to pursue an over on. He’s only exceeded 2.5 receptions once and had to catch all 3 targets to do so. I’ll fade his receptions in this one as a parlay piece.

 

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 2.5 Receptions (-190)

Bucs have the rest advantage. Seahawksare 3-1 but they have beat the 49ers,Steelers and Saints. Bucs are a great team but they are 0-5 without Evans. They looked good against the Eagles last week so I'll take the better team in my eyes

Best Bet: Over 44.5 -115
Lean: Bucs ML +105
Score Prediction: Bucs 27 Seattle 24

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Buccaneers): Chris Godwin +220

Chris Godwin made his return last week into the Buccaneers offense, but any thought of him being slowly phased in was put to bed quickly as the Tampa Bay WR was targeted on 10 different occasions by Baker Mayfield. Godwin only registered 3 catches for 26 yards, but it was a major step forward and we can only imagine how good this offense will be once Mike Evans returns. Baker and Godwin were a machine before he got hurt last year and it appears that Mayfield is already gravitating to Penn State alum. The Seahawks have only allowed 2 touchdowns to opposing WRs in the first 4 weeks of the season, but they have yet to see a pair of receivers with the degree of quickness that Egbuka and Godwin bring.

 

First TD Picks

Best Play (Buccaneers): Rachaad White +800

Bucky Irving is out for week 5 with a foot injury, but the beat goes on for the Tampa Bay backfield as they turn to one of the best #2 RBs in the NFL in Rachaad White. Seattle has yet to allow a rushing TD to an opposing RB this season, but the Buccaneers have a stout offense that can put points on the board. It also should be pointed out that the Seahawks have faced 4 teams who all rank in the bottom half of the NFL in points scored. This includes: SF (21st), PIT (16th), NO (28th) and ARI (23rd). Despite Bucky getting the lion share of touches in his L12 starts going back to last year, Rachaad White's overall numbers are quite stunning. Among RBs since 2023, he has 9 receiving TDs (9th most), 976 receiving yards (5th most) and 123 receptions (6th most). Even for a First Time TD, this line is egregious.

Parlay #1 (Buccaneers): +315 (Draft Kings)

Rachaad White 4+ Receptions
Emeka Egbuka 50+ Receiving Yards
Cade Otton 3 Receptions

 

Parlay #2 (Buccaneers Longshot): +1300 (Draft Kings)

Rachaad White 6+ Receptions
Emeka Egbuka 60+ Receiving Yards
Cade Otton 4+ Receptions

QB Cam Ward
Cam Ward's 2024 season has been nothing short of a statistical catastrophe, placing him among the league's least effective quarterbacks across the board. Among 27 quarterbacks who have played all four games, Ward ranks 26th in yards per game (153.5), 27th in completion rate (51.2%), 27th in yards per attempt with just 4.91, and 26th in passer rating with an anemic 63.9. He only has 2 passing touchdowns compared to 2 interceptions. His offensive line, which ranks a concerning 25th in pass block grading, affords Ward little time or protection to make plays. The upcoming matchup against the Arizona Cardinals presents a complex challenge; while the Cardinals predominantly deploy Cover 3 and Cover 4 defenses (each used 28.3% of the time), Ward's numbers against these schemes are only marginally better, posting a 60% completion rate, a 63.8 passer rating, and 5.88 yards per attempt. However, a deeper dive into the Cardinals' defensive metrics reveals some intriguing contradictions that might offer a sliver of hope. Despite ranking an impressive 6th in fewest points allowed per game (18.5), they surprisingly allow the 5th most passing yards per game (255.5). This suggests that while teams struggle to convert those yards into points against Arizona, they are indeed moving the ball through the air with relative ease. The Cardinals have allowed the 22nd highest completion rate (63.7%) and passer rating (86.6). Adding to the narrative, Ward has faced a brutal gauntlet of defenses to date, including the Broncos, Rams, Colts, and Texans – all tough defenses. Crucially, the market has responded to Ward's struggles by setting his betting lines at their lowest point all season, creating a potential "buy low" opportunity. I’m not thrilled to do it, but I think we can buy overs for the first time this season on some props.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 17.5 Passing Completions (-115)
‘O’ 171.5 Passing Yards (-114)
225+ Passing Yards (+275)
250+ Passing Yards (+525)

 

RB Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard's 2024 season has been a struggle, with his rushing statistics painting a picture of inefficiency behind a subpar offensive line. Among running backs with at least 35 rushing attempts, Pollard ranks 15th in rushing yards per game (65.3), 22nd in yards per carry (3.84), a concerning 27th in explosive run rate (1.5%), and 25th in stuff rate (42.6%). Despite these struggles, his 13th rank in yards after contact per attempt (2.49) suggests he's still fighting for every yard available, but his overall production has been limited to just one touchdown on the season. His offensive line's performance has not helped, ranking a lowly 26th in run block grading. This week's matchup against the Arizona Cardinals presents a challenging environment for Pollard to break out of his slump. The Cardinals have been quite stingy against the run, ranking 25th in rushing yards allowed per game (96.0), 22nd in yards per carry (4.00), and 20th in yards after contact per attempt (1.97). They are particularly effective at stopping runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, boasting the 4th highest stuff rate in the league (50.0%). While the Cardinals have shown susceptibility to explosive runs, allowing the 7th highest explosive run rate (7.3%), Pollard himself has demonstrated very little explosive play ability this season behind his struggling offensive line. Tajae Spears, who is officially questionable after coming off the IR, may play this week but will likely be eased back in, if he does. This could be Pollard's last opportunity as the true featured back before his workload potentially diminishes. However, considering the Cardinals' stout run defense, particularly their ability to stuff runs and limit yards after contact, this doesn't appear to be the ideal matchup for Pollard to capitalize on a potentially high volume. With the uncertainty around the workload, I’ll continue to fade his usage in the passing game, where he’s only caught 6 balls in 4 weeks.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 14.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
‘U’ 2.5 Receptions (-130)

 

WR Calvin Ridley
Calvin Ridley's return to the field for the Titans has been a mixed bag through four weeks, characterized by inconsistent production and a concerning lack of efficiency. While he's accumulated 10 receptions for 141 yards on 24 targets, his catch rate sits at just 42%, reflecting struggles to haul in passes. He's operating with an 11.1 aDOT (average depth of target) and commands a respectable 19.2% target share and 23.0% team yardage share, averaging 14.10 yards per reception. However, his red zone usage has been virtually nonexistent, with only 1 target inside the 20 and no touchdowns on the season. A glaring issue for Ridley has been his hands, as he owns a 12.5% drop rate, ranking him as the 3rd highest among qualified wide receivers. To compound matters, Ridley is questionable for this game with elbow and knee injuries, though he did manage a light practice on Friday. This week's matchup against the Arizona Cardinals presents a seemingly favorable opportunity, as the Cardinals have allowed the 5th most receiving yards per game (267.0). However, a deeper dive reveals that their generosity might be more volume-based than efficiency-based: they rank 25th in yards per reception allowed (9.98) and 23rd in yards after contact per reception (1.56), while giving up the 12th highest passer rating when targeted (98.9). Considering Ridley's ongoing struggles with drops, his lack of chemistry with quarterback Cam Ward (who has shown more rapport with other receivers like Elic in recent weeks), and his current banged-up status, it's difficult to trust him as a reliable piece of the Titans' offense, even against a defense that gives up yards. I’ll fade, once again.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (+100)

 

WR Elic Ayomanor
Elic and Ward have shown good chemistry over the last couple weeks. He is now tied with Ridley with 23 targets, but has been more productive. He has 12 catches for 151 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The only 2 touchdowns that Ward has thrown have been to Elic this season. It looks like Ayomanor is slowly growing into the WR1 role in this offense with Ridley’s drop issues and Elic’s reliability. He could be a star in the making. Aymanor a 14.4 aDOT (highest on team) and 12.6 yards per reception (leads team). So not only is he getting the volume, but he’s being thrown to downfield. If we like Ward’s passing yards, someone is going to have to catch passes - my bet is Aymanor. He showed an ability to hold speed downfield and can win contested catches. ARI allows the 11th highest catch rate this season (70.9%). Epic lines up primarily out wide and ARI is allowing the 8th highest target rate (43.0%) to out wide WR’s this season.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (+140)
‘O’ 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
Chig has been a bit of a disappointment this season, along with the other parts of the passing offense. However, he still ranks 3rd in targets on the team and leads the team in receptions (13). As mentioned before, this season he is being used much more in the short game (4.5 aDOT). Kind of strange for a guy with breakaway speed - just another sign of incompetent coaching. ARI has been a solid matchup for TE’s, as they rank 6th in receiving yards allowed per game (64), 6th in receptions (6.5) and 5th in targets (8.5). Again, I think TEN finds more of a passing game in this one, but with the usage of Chig to this point, it’s clear he won’t be used much down the field. I’ll look receptions here at plus money.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (+102)

QB Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray enters week 5 with a completion percentage of just 66.9%. In the tortoise-like pace of play, he is averaging just 185.5 PYPG to go with 6 TD and 3 INT. This has resulted in a 45.8 QBR for the former #1 pick after 4 weeks. The good news is he has a matchup with plenty of upside Sunday when he faces a Tennessee Titans team that hasn’t won a professional football game since Dec. 1, 2024, when they upset Houston 32-27 on the road. Last year, TEN was bad but they were able to rely on their defense to keep games close. Now, they are just downright bad. The Titans are 0-4 and they’ve already been outscored to the tune of 120-51. Tennessee allows a 70.0% completion rate (5th worst) and 7.5 YPPA (9th worst) to opposing QBs, and they rank just 26th with a pressure-rate of 32.4%. Their lack of pressure has resulted in the league’s 3rd lowest sack rate at a miniscule 3.1%. TEN runs Cover-2 (30.9%) and Cover-3 (21.3%) for just over half of their defensive coverages. This is good news for Kyler Murray, who has completed 42 of 60 (70.0% CMP) passes for 347 yards. The only real issue here is the Titans are also poor against the run, and I look for Arizona to work on building confidence in the backfield with a run-first strategy. That being said, the Tennessee secondary can be burned easily. They are giving up the 10th most YPA on dropbacks and on first down, the Cardinals have the highest dropback rate in the NFL at 58.6%. This should be a game Murray can excel in.

Suggested Bet:

Kyler Murray 25+ Rushing Yards (-153)

Kyler Murray o34.5 Longest Completion (-110)

 

RB Michael Carter

The Titans have been deplorable against the run this year, and there’s no other way to put it. Outside of Chicago and Cincinnati, they have allowed the 3rd most rushing yards (117.5 YPG) to opposing RBs, and when you factor in the pass-catching game, it comes to a grand total of 147.3 YPG out of the backfield (5th most). And this is not a volume issue either, considering TEN is allowing 5.0 YPC (6th most) to the RB position. The cherry on top for this defense is nobody has allowed more TD’s to opposing RBs than the Titans. Through the first 4 weeks of the season, the Titans have already allowed 7 TDs to opposing backfields with 6 coming on the ground. Michael Carter appears to be first in command for the Arizona backfield, but Emari Demercado will see some action as well on passing downs. Carter should find the end zone easily, and I like his Longest Rush prop against a team with the 3^rd highest explosive run rate.

Suggested Bet:

Michael Carter o12.5 Longest Rush (-115)

Michael Carter Anytime TD (-105)

 

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

After an incredibly shaky first half on Thursday Night Football, Marvin Harrison Jr. eventually bounced back in the second half as The Ohio State alum finished with a season high 10 targets, catching 6 of those for 66 yards, including a 16-yard TD. Most importantly, Harrison Jr. had a 25% target share, but this mundane offense still has him sitting at a lowly 19.5% target rate per route for the year. The Titans sit back in zone coverage for 77% of their defensive snaps. This most likely will yield ianother bullish game for Trey McBride. In 111 routes against zone coverage, the Arizona TE has earned a target 26% of the time, while Marvin Harrison is way down the board at 18.0%. This game also lends itself to being heavy on the run as Arizona tries to work in Michael Carter after losing both James Conner and Trey Benson to season-ending injuries. We need to see more consistency from Harrison Jr. before running with him in a game-script like this.

Suggested Bet:

Marvin Harrison Jr. u51.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

 

TE Trey McBride

The metaphor for Arizona TE Trey McBride this year has been wash, rinse and repeat. In a league that can be very unpredictable it's nice to have players like McBride who can consistently be counted on. He hauled in 7 of 11 targets for 52 yards in his last game on Thursday Night Football. McBride will benefit from the extra rest coming into Sunday's game where he will face a Titans that has yet to have their hand forced outside of Tyler Warren (IND). Tennessee is allowing 6.4 YPT (14th most) to the tight end position but again, they have not come up against a strong contingent at this position other than the aforementioned Warren. McBride's numbers speak for itself. He leads all tight ends in routes (150), route participation (94.9%), target share (27.3%), and share of air yards (27.9%). With Tennessee running zone coverage at a 77% rate this opens the door for McBride to be active early and often in week 5.

Suggested Bet:

Trey McBride 60+ Receiving Yards (-136)

Trey McBride o6.5 Receptions (-119)

Trey McBride 8+ ALT Receptions (+149)

Trey McBride 9+ ALT Receptions (+259)

Cam Ward said in the postgame that we simply "suck". This week they will be trying to get their first win of the season on the road. Cardinals should be able to exploit the Titans on the ground but they are on their 3rd string RB. I think this is a grind it out type of game. Give me the Under and Titans covering the large spread

Best Bet: Titans +7.5 -110
Lean: Under 42.5 -120
Score Prediction: Titans 17 Cardinals 20

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Cardinals): Michael Carter +105

In just a matter of 2 weeks Michael Carter has gone from the practice squad to the first string RB in Arizona. Now, he is aiming to deliver the impact the Jets once anticipated when they drafted him back in 2021. Carter has accumulated just 8 touchdowns in his seven-year career, but now he is is staring redemption squarely in the face. He has a great opportunity to get kickstarted this Sunday when he faces a Titans defense that has already allowed 7 touchdowns (most in NFL) to opposing RBs through the first 4 weeks of the season.

Best Play (Titans): Elic Ayomanor +375
Ayomanor has connected with Ward for his only two touchdowns this season. Ridley is questionable and regardless of if he plays or not, Elic may already be taking on the WR1 role. In a game where I think the passing game will be more effective, I love this look.

 

First TD Picks

Best Play (Cardinals): Emari Demarcado +1200

After James Conner sustained a season ending foot injury, Trey Benson became the latest Arizona running back to fall victim to the IR. Introduce yourself to Emari Demercado. The third-string running may only have 4 carries, but Demarcado is familiar with the Cardinals offense. Over the past 2 seasons, he has accumulated 82 carries and 37 receptions for a total of 730 yards of offense. Last week, he achieved his first career receiving touchdown. Kyler Murray is familiar with Demarcado and this elevates his chances at picking up a first TD

Longshot (Titans): Chimere Dike +3400
I love thid price. Dike has THE MOST redzone targets among pas catchers in this offense. He's also used in a multitude of ways. As a receiver, as a rusher and in the return game. There are so many ways to cash this play.

Parlay #1 (Cardinals): +480 (Draft Kings)

Kyler Murray 25+ Rush Yards

Michael Carter Anytime TD

Trey McBride 7+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Titans) +330
Cam Ward 225+ Passing Yards
Cam Ward 1+ Passing Touchdown
Elic Ayomanor 10+ Yard Reception

QB Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels returns after a two-week absence to face off against the LA Chargers, who allow the ninth-fewest completions (19), the sixth-fewest passing yards (177.5), but the 15th-most pass attempts (32). The Chargers run the seventh-most zone coverage in the league this season. More specifically, Cover 3, which they run at the ninth-highest rate (35.7%) and Cover 4, which they run at the second-highest rate (24.2%). Daniels has diced up zone coverage this season, completing the third-highest percentage (76.1%) of his passes, a 7.17 yards per attempt and the 10th-highest QBR (102.6). Against Cover 3 and 4 specifically, Daniels' completion percentage (76.2%) and yards per attempt (7.19) remain the same, but he sees a slight dip in his QBR, falling to 95.6. However, those two coverages are the best zone coverages that Daniels performs the best against, as his numbers drastically drop against Cover 6. So, Daniels should have a nice game through the air, but we like what he's going to do with his legs a little bit better in this matchup. When he was completely healthy, Daniels ran for 68 yards on 11 rush attempts. But he wasn't great in his latest start against the Packers, only rushing for 17 yards on seven attempts. The Chargers allow the most rush attempts (7.3) and the second most rushing yards (41) to opposing QBs this season. In fact, if we date back to December of last season, the Chargers have allowed eight starting QBs to go over their rushing line, and now face off against one of the most dynamic rushing QBs in the league.

Suggested pick:

Jayden Daniels o45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Jayden Daniels 60+ Rushing Yards (+190)

 

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt / Chris Rodriguez

This Commander's rushing attack remains a complete mess in terms of determining who will be the best week in and week out. Since Austin Ekeler's Week 2 injury, Chris Rodriguez has seen 39% of the snaps, while Croskey-Merritt and McNichols both have run 37% of the snaps. Rodriguez has seen 46% of the rush attempts, Croskey-Merritt has 38% of the attempts, and McNichols has only 15% of the carries. Considering these numbers, we will focus on Rodriguez and Croskey-Merritt. The Chargers aren't an easy matchup for RBs, as they allow the fewest rush attempts (17) and the sixth-fewest rushing yards (68.5) per game this season. LA run more zone concept (43.4%) of the snaps compared to just 32.2% in man/gap. Against zone concept, JCM has the edge in yards per carry, averaging 5.22 YPC compared to Rodriguez's 4.17. However, as we mentioned, this backfield is too messy to suggest either player until one of them separates themselves from the rest of the pack.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

WR Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel's status for the weekend remains in question after missing both Wednesday and Thursday's practice. On Friday, Deebo was seen at Commanders practice, catching balls on the sidelines, but did not participate in any drills. However, if he is to go this week, he'll have to face off against the Chargers' defence, who allow the 14th-fewest receptions (11) and 10th-fewest receiving yards (125.8) per game to opposing WRs. With the Chargers running zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate in the league, it's a pretty good matchup for Deebo. Samuel has been the most targeted Commanders receiver against the coverage, catching 14 of his 16 targets for 127 receiving yards. Zone coverage is the coverage that best suits Deebo, as he's able to pick apart the open areas of the field and turn that into yards after catch. Of Deebo's 100 yards after catch this season, 94 of them have come against zone coverage. Deebo lines up in the slot on 71% of his routes. Against slot receivers, the Chargers allow the 13th-highest catch rate (71.1%) and the seventh-highest yards per reception (11.8) this season. Who knows how this injury will affect Deebo, or if he even gets into the game on Sunday. But with Jayden Daniels back at the helm, and no Terry McLaurin, we should continue to expect big things from Deebo this week.

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel o5.5 Receptions (-115)

 

WR Jaylin Lane/Luke McCaffrey/Chris Moore

We really didn't get much clarification last week as to who would step up for the Commanders as the second option behind Deebo. Chris Moore would be the presumed WR2, as he ran 72.6% of the snaps, with Jaylin Lane and Luke McCaffrey running sub 45%. However, Lane and McCaffrey outproduced Moore. On McCaffrey's 39.2% of snaps, he caught two of his three targets for 21 receiving yards and a TD. Of Lane's 43.1% of snaps, he caught two of his three targets for 18 receiving yards. And of Moore's 72.6% of snaps, Moore could not catch either of his two targets. The situation remains murky and should be avoided until one of these individuals steps up or McLaurin returns to game action.

Suggested pick:

Pass

 

TE Zach Ertz

Ertz didn't have the best weeks with Mariota in at QB; however, with Daniels back under centre, Ertz should be back to regularly producing. With Daniels, Ertz has caught nine of 12 targets for 90 receiving yards, with TDs in each of the two games. However, the Chargers' defence has done well at limiting opposing TEs, allowing the sixth-fewest receptions (6.8) and the seventh-fewest receiving yards (34) per game to the position. Against zone coverage, Ertz has the third-highest PFF-graded of all Commanders receivers, catching 10 of his 11 targets for 118 receiving yards. Ertz lines up in the slot on 63% of his routes, which lines him in a similar matchup to Deebo. And with McLaurin out and nobody else stepping up for the Commanders, Ertz should be Daniels' favourite over the middle target this week.

Suggested pick:

Zach Ertz 40+ Receiving Yards (-120)

QB Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert is entering a crucial bounce-back spot after posting season lows in passing yards and efficiency against the Giants. Despite his struggles, the Chargers remain one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses, and Herbert continues to push the ball downfield when given time. The challenge is the Commanders’ defensive line, which leads the league in pressure rate (48.2%). The numbers show a stark difference in Herbert’s performance when pressured versus kept clean: his YPA drops from 8.46 to 4.35, and his CPOE falls from +10.4% to -13.4%. The good news for Herbert is that Washington’s secondary has been the weak link — they’ve given up at least 289 yards and multiple scores in three straight games, including 326/2 to Bo Nix and 289/2 to Geno Smith. Even under heavy pressure, Herbert has enough weapons in Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, and Ladd McConkey to exploit those coverage gaps.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Pass TDs (-145)

 

RB Omarion Hampton

Omarion Hampton exploded last week with 128 rushing yards and a long score, but this matchup against Washington is far more difficult. The Commanders are one of the league’s strongest front sevens, ranking sixth-best in adjusted yards before contact allowed (1.85) and holding opponents to just 81 rushing yards per game. Where they’ve been vulnerable is in the passing game to running backs, giving up the 13th-most receiving yards (40.0 per game). Hampton’s workhorse role ensures he’ll see plenty of touches, but the Chargers’ offensive line injuries (losing both Rashawn Slater earlier in the year and Joe Alt most recently) could create real problems opening lanes. While his volume will remain intact, the matchup suggests efficiency on the ground will be hard to come by. 

Suggested Play:

'O' 16.5 Rush Attempts (-130)

 

WR Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston is clearly establishing himself as Herbert’s go-to weapon. He’s coming off his most productive outing of the season, commanding 13 targets and turning them into 98 yards. The data also shows his strength against the exact coverages Washington leans on. Against Cover 1 and Cover 3, which the Commanders use on 55.4% of snaps, Johnston averages 2.46 yards per route run — an elite number that shows how effective he is at winning both on deep routes and intermediate cuts. Washington’s secondary has been shredded by outside receivers in recent weeks, including an 8/110/1 line by Drake London. 

Suggested Play:

'O' 23.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

 

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey has struggled statistically to start the year, but the underlying usage shows opportunity. He’s running a high route share (nearly 90%) and still sees consistent first-read looks when working from the slot. Washington has been one of the worst defenses in the league against slot receivers, giving up the most yards per route run (2.23) and the fourth-most receiving yards (84.3) per game to that alignment. McConkey’s efficiency against Cover 1 and Cover 3 has been modest (0.98 YPRR), but those coverage shells leave space underneath where he can operate. After watching Khalil Shakir carve this same defense for 5/69/1, McConkey is in a clear get-right spot. 

Suggested Play:

'O' 4.5 Receptions (-150)

 

WR Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen cooled off last week with just 37 receiving yards, but he remains the heartbeat of this offense, especially in the red zone. He’s already among the league leaders in red zone targets, and Herbert continues to rely on him in high-leverage situations. Against Washington, Allen matches up against a perimeter defense that has struggled badly in man and single-high looks. The Commanders allow the eighth-most production per target to outside receivers, and Allen’s ability to work the sideline and inside-breaking routes against Cover 1 and Cover 3 makes him particularly dangerous here. With Johnston drawing attention deep and McConkey working underneath, Allen is primed to find gaps in coverage near the goal line. 

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+150)

Daniels is back but we might see some rust. The Chargers are coming off a bad game against the Giants losing by 3 on the road but I think this is a perfect bounceback spot @Home. I think these offenses will have success. Give me the Over and Chargers -2.5. 

Best Bet: Chargers -2.5 -120
Lean: Over 46.5 -120
Score Prediction: Commanders 24 Chargers 27

Anytime TD Picks

 

Best Pick: (Commanders): Zach Ertz Anytime TD (+230)

As we mentioned, Ertz has scored a TD in two of four games this season, which coincidentally lines up with the two games with Jayden Daniels at QB. Well, Daniels is back this week, and the duo gets a Chargers defence that has allowed the sixth most TDs to the TE position this season.

Best Bet: (Chargers) Keenan Allen Anytime TD (+210)

Keenan Allen cooled off last week with just 37 receiving yards, but he remains the heartbeat of this offense, especially in the red zone. He’s already among the league leaders in red zone targets, and Herbert continues to rely on him in high-leverage situations. Against Washington, Allen matches up against a perimeter defense that has struggled badly in man and single-high looks. The Commanders allow the eighth-most production per target to outside receivers, and Allen’s ability to work the sideline and inside-breaking routes against Cover 1 and Cover 3 makes him particularly dangerous here. With Johnston drawing attention deep and McConkey working underneath, Allen is primed to find gaps in coverage near the goal line. 

 

1st Touchdown

 

Best Pick: (Commanders) Jayden Daniels First TD (+1000)

Daniels has yet to find the end zone with his legs this season, which is odd considering he scored seven in his rookie season. He'll likely want to make a statement in his return, especially against a tough opponent in the Chargers – not to mention the mess of a backfield the Commanders have. Who even knows who the goal line back is in this offence?

 

Longshot: (Chargers) Keenan Allen First TD (+800)

Keenan Allen may not have found the end zone last week, but he remains Justin Herbert’s most trusted option when the Chargers enter scoring territory. Allen has already drawn one of the highest red zone target totals in the league this season, and his ability to separate quickly makes him the perfect fit when the field shrinks. Washington’s defense has struggled early in games against top receivers, giving up opening-drive touchdowns to both Drake London and Davante Adams in recent weeks. With Quentin Johnston stretching the defense vertically and Ladd McConkey pulling coverage into the slot, Allen will have room to exploit one-on-one matchups on the perimeter. 

Parlay 1: (Commanders) +260 odds on bet365

Jayden Daniels 50+ Rushing Yards

Zach Ertz 40+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 2: (Chargers) +530

Keenan Allen ATD
Quentin Johnston ATD

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff has leaned into a more conservative role the past three weeks, attempting under 30 passes in each contest and largely playing within structure. But this week’s matchup sets up much differently. The Bengals rank 27th in pressure rate (32.1%), meaning Goff should have time to throw from clean pockets, where he’s been among the league’s most efficient quarterbacks with a passer rating north of 130. When pressured, his numbers dip sharply, but Cincinnati has not been generating consistent pressure. That is a recipe for Detroit to open things up. On top of that, Cincinnati has struggled mightily defending the pass, giving up the third-most passing yards per game (272.3) and the fifth-most passing touchdowns (2.0). Just last week, Bo Nix threw for over 320 yards and two scores while adding a rushing touchdown. With Detroit’s balance forcing the Bengals to respect the run, Goff should have opportunities to exploit coverage lapses. The cleanest play is backing him to throw multiple touchdowns, with over 1.5 passing TDs the strongest angle.

Suggested Play:

'O' 2.5 Pass TDs (+210)

 

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs enters Week 5 off another dynamic performance, pacing Detroit’s backfield both on the ground and through the air. His blend of quick acceleration and ability to bounce runs outside makes him a nightmare for defenses that struggle with gap integrity. That description fits the Bengals’ front seven, which has been one of the worst units in football against the run. Cincinnati is giving up the second-most rushing yards per game to opposing backs (123.5) while also being vulnerable through the air, ranking eighth-worst in receiving yards allowed to running backs (46.5 per game). Last week, they allowed J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey to combine for over 200 yards of offense and a touchdown. Gibbs’ versatility means he can score from anywhere on the field, whether it’s breaking a run to the second level or slipping out of the backfield for a quick reception in space. With his workload secure, he is the best candidate to find the end zone at any point in this contest.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Rushing TD (-165)

 

RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery continues to be the more physical complement to Gibbs, but the matchup here plays against his style. Cincinnati’s biggest weakness defensively is defending quick-cut runners who can exploit lanes before linebackers can react. That favors Gibbs far more than Montgomery, who operates as a downhill grinder. The Bengals rank poorly in adjusted yards before contact, allowing runners with burst to get free, but their ability to swarm and close has kept traditional power backs in check. Montgomery struggled last week against Cleveland’s front, managing just 12 yards on nine carries, and he’s likely to be in a similar situation here if Detroit decides to air it out against a shaky Bengals secondary. His role is secure, but the game script and matchup profile lean toward Detroit riding Gibbs’ explosiveness. The sharper angle is Montgomery finishing under 49.5 rushing yards in this spot.

Suggested Play:

'U' 50.5 Rush Yards (-120)

 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been the engine of Detroit’s passing game, and the numbers back up just how dominant he’s been. He’s coming off another efficient outing where he caught all seven of his targets, and his consistency over the last year has been remarkable: at least five receptions in 14 of his last 15 contests. Against the Bengals, the matchup tilts heavily in his favor. Cincinnati struggles against slot receivers, allowing the most yards per game to that alignment (94.8) and ranking among the worst defenses in terms of receptions surrendered (32, fifth-most). Their heavy reliance on Cover 3 and Cover 6 leaves soft spots underneath, where St. Brown thrives with quick separation and precise route-running. He’s averaging 2.57 yards per route run against those coverages, one of the most efficient marks in the league. Simply put, the Bengals haven’t shown the ability to slow down high-volume slot players, and Detroit leans on St. Brown as their chain mover and red zone weapon. The bet to attack here is St. Brown clearing 6.5 receptions, a number he’s made look routine.

Suggested Play:

'O' 6.5 Receptions (-105)

 

TE Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta hasn’t exploded in the box score lately, but his involvement is steady, and this is the type of matchup where he can reemerge as a scoring threat. Despite not finding the end zone yet this season, he continues to log heavy usage, running routes on over 80% of dropbacks and maintaining a steady four targets per game baseline. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has been exposed repeatedly by tight ends. They allow the fourth-most receptions (6.8) and the ninth-most receiving yards (61.0) to the position. More importantly, their coverage structure — Cover 3 and Cover 6 on more than half of defensive snaps — plays directly into LaPorta’s ability to exploit seams and sit in soft zones. His 1.98 yards per route run against those coverages suggests production is waiting to pop. With the Bengals already having allowed a touchdown to T.J. Hockenson in a similar matchup two weeks ago, the best angle is to back LaPorta to finally get his first score of the season.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+210)

QB Jake Browning

Browning has had a rough 2 starts since taking over for an injured Joe Burrow. These were tough matchups against the Vikings and Broncos, who are both top 10 in EPA/Pass allowed and more importantly have been top 10 in pressure rate. Browning is averaging 6.02 YPA and 64.3% completion rate this season. When pressured, he averages just 3.90 YPA, a 45.2% completion rate and 4 interceptions. In week 5, he’ll get a better matchup on the margin, as the Lions are 9^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and are around the middle of the pack in pressure rate (38.8%). The Lions defense has played single-high at the 2^nd highest rate (64%) this season, but I’m not sure that will stick against the Bengals. The Bengals have faced the highest rate of two-high safeties in the league this season (68.4%), likely because the Bengals offensive line has struggled and they have no run game threat so no need to stack the box. This prevents big plays against the Bengals top 2 threats, Chase and Higgins. The same trend was true last season when defenses faced the Dolphins speedy WR core. The Lions lost 2 cornerbacks to injury this past week, Terrion Arnold and DJ Reed. This secondary may be more susceptible, and maybe Browning and the Bengals finally get some sort of offensive rhythm. Sounds crazy, but I believe this is a buy low!

Suggested Pick:

Over 214.5 Passing Yards (-111)

 

RB Chase Brown

Chase Brown is averaging 33.3 rushing yards per game on 2.33 YPC. The productivity struggles are partially due to the offensive line. The Bengals are dead last in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (0.53). In week 5, Brown will face a Lions defense that is ranked number 1 in EPA/Rush allowed. They have allowed just 94 rushing yards per game (8^th lowest). 42.1% of Brown’s rush attempts have come in zone concept. He is averaging 2.79 YPC and a 37.5% success rate. 56.1% of his rush attempts have come in man/gap concept. He is averaging 2.03 YPC and a 40.6% success rate in man/gap. The Lions force the 8^th lowest YPC (3.32) and the lowest success rate against zone concept (34.2%). They allow the 12^th most YPC (4.5) and the 16^th highest success rate against man/gap concept. It’s tough to get excited in the running game here. Chase Brown is averaging 18.5 receiving yards per game. Brown has ran a route on 44.1% of dropbacks this season and saw his highest route rate last week (58.6%). The Lions allowed Judkins to catch 4 passes for 33 yards last week. The week before, Justice Hill caught 3 receptions for 45 yards. I lean over on Brown’s receiving props, and might target his 1Q line when that opens.

Suggested Pick:

Under 52.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Under 14.5 Attempts (+102)

Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

20+ Receiving Yards (+130)

25+ Receiving Yards (+194)

 

WR Ja’Marr Chase

In his first 2 games this season, Ja’Marr was averaging 95.5 receiving yards per game, 2.62 YPRR and was targeted on 29% of his routes. He had an elite 1^st-read rate of 42.6%. Since Browning has been the starter, Chase is averaging just 36.5 receiving yards per game, 1.33 YPRR and 25% TPRR. He still leads the team with a 36.4% 1^st-read rate. These past 2 weeks have been tough matchups against the Vikings and Broncos, who are both top 10 in EPA/Pass allowed and top 10 in pressure rate. In week 5, he’ll get a better matchup on the margin, as the Lions are 9^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and are around the middle of the pack in pressure rate (38.8%). Pressure will continue to be a problem for Jake Browning and this offensive line, but on the margin, he should be pressured less. This is important as Chase averages 2.62 YPRR and 38% TPRR when his QB is not pressured, compared to 1.37 YPRR and 14% TPRR when his QB is pressured. I’m not going to dive into the Lions single-high heavy frequency because it seems that every defense is playing a high frequency of two-high against the Bengals, which makes sense as their offensive line is struggling, and they have virtually no run game. The Lions are dealing with injuries in their secondary, as Terrion Arnold and DJ Reed were lost to injury last week. I think there is sneaky upside for this entire passing offense this week, buy low!

Suggested Pick:

Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

70+ Receiving Yards (+116)

80+ Receiving Yards (+172)

90+ Receiving Yards (+243)

Anytime Touchdown (+170)

 

WR Tee Higgins

Through 2 games this season, Tee Higgins was averaging 44.5 receiving yards per game, 1.29 YPRR and was targeted on only 17% of his routes. He was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.4%. Since Browning has been starter, Higgins is averaging 23.5 receiving yards per game, 0.96 YPRR and 16% TPRR. His 24.2% 1^st-read rate is still 2^nd on the team. These past 2 weeks have been tough matchups against the Vikings and Broncos, who are both top 10 in EPA/Pass allowed and top 10 in pressure rate. In week 5, he’ll get a better matchup on the margin, as the Lions are 9^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and are around the middle of the pack in pressure rate (38.8%). Pressure will continue to be a problem for Jake Browning and this offensive line, but on the margin, he should be pressured less. Higgins averages 1.90 YPRR and 24% TPRR when his QB operates in a clean pocket. That compares to 0.32 YPRR and 9% TPRR when his QB is pressured. I’m not going to dive into the Lions single-high heavy frequency because it seems that every defense is playing a high frequency of two-high against the Bengals, which makes sense as their offensive line is struggling, and they have virtually no run game. The Lions are dealing with injuries in their secondary, as Terrion Arnold and DJ Reed were lost to injury last week. I think there is sneaky upside for this entire passing offense this week, buy low!

 

Suggested Pick:

Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Mike Gesicki/Noah Fant/Drew Sample

Week 1 was a TE carousel for the Bengals, as Fant, Gesicki and Sample ran 12, 9 and 10 routes respectively. None of them had a route participation rate over 45%. In week 2, Gesicki led the way with a 62.5% route participation rate. Fant and Sample were down to 20.8% and 14.6% respectively. Despite the increased role, Gesicki caught just 3 of 4 targets for 18 yards. In week 3, Gesicki had a 32.3% route rate, Fant had a 35.5% route rate and Sample had a 35.5% route rate. Sample had the lone touchdown in garbage time, while Fant caught 5 of 5 targets for 26 yards. In week 4, Noah Fant was ruled out with a concussion. Gesicki had a 55.2% route rate. He caught just 1 target for 8 yards. I thought he may have been more involved with Fant out. Fant now returns and the TE carousel will continue week 5. I’m passing on all of these guys.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

I think the books are hating on the Bengals way to much here @Home. Give me Bengals +10.5

Best Bet: Bengals +10.5 -120
Lean: Over 49.5 -112
Score Prediction: Lions 27 Bengals 23

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Lions): Sam LaPorta +210

LaPorta hasn’t found the end zone yet this season, but he’s still running routes on over 80% of dropbacks and remains a steady part of the passing game. The Bengals have struggled against tight ends, giving up the fourth-most catches and ninth-most yards to the position. With Cincinnati leaning heavily on Cover 3 and Cover 6 — coverages LaPorta has been efficient against — this sets up as a strong spot for him to finally break through. Back him to score his first touchdown of the year.

 

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) +170

I know it’s been ugly the past 2 weeks with Jake Browning at QB, but I like this bounce back spot. The Vikings and Broncos pressure were extremely tough against Browning and this weak Bengals offensive line. The Lions pass rush isn’t as lethal, marginally speaking. They are also missing multiple corners to injury. Chase is arguably the most talented WR in the league and I believe he’ll find the end zone against a Lions defense that is 9^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed, while being number 1 in EPA/Rush allowed.

 

1st Touchdown

Longshot (Lions): Jameson Williams +945

Jameson Williams may not see the same target volume as Amon-Ra St. Brown, but his role in Detroit’s offense is clear: he stretches the field and flips momentum in a single play. Despite hauling in only half of his targets through four weeks, he has commanded over 45% of the team’s air yards, showing just how often Jared Goff looks his way when taking shots downfield. His speed has already paid off once with a long touchdown against the Bears, and now he draws a Bengals defense that has already surrendered more than 1,000 passing yards — one of the highest totals in the league. Cincinnati leans heavily on Cover 3 and Cover 6, which often leaves corners isolated without safety help, a dangerous formula against a vertical threat like Williams. If Detroit looks to make an early statement, a designed deep shot to Williams could easily be the way they strike first.

 

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) +1300

Same analysis as above, I think the Bengals surprise people early. Expecting this offense to look completely different than the first 2 weeks with Browning taking over. Chase is the primary guy and dominates first-read looks. The Lions secondary is banged up and they already haven’t been dominant against the pass, I love Chase to score first at these odds.

Parlay #1 (Lions) +280

Jahmyr Gibbs ATD

Jared Goff 'O' 1.5 Pass TD

Amon-Ra St. Brown 'O' 70.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (Bengals) +376

Jake Browning Over 214.5 Passing Yards

Ja'Marr Chase 70+ Receiving Yards

Ja'Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown

QB Drake Maye

So far in Drake Maye’s 2^nd season, he has looked like the real deal. He is averaging 247 passing yards per game, 8.03 YPA and has a 74% completion rate. He’s thrown 7 TDs and 2 interceptions. On the ground, he’s averaging 6 attempts for 24.5 yards and 2 total TDs. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 9^th best in EPA/Pass allowed. They are 8.5-point underdogs with a 48.5 game total; Maye will likely be forced to air it out. Through 4 weeks, the Bills have pressured the QB at a 47.2% rate, 2^nd highest. Maye is averaging 7.42 YPA and a 51.5% completion rate and has thrown 0 TDs against pressure (61 dropbacks). That compares to 8.26 YPA, an 82.2% completion rate and 7 TDs against no pressure (90 dropbacks). Despite the heavy pressure rate, the Bills are ranked just 11^th in sack rate (7.3%). They had just a 6.1% sack rate last season as well (20^th best). This is a recipe for QB scrambles. In 61 dropbacks against pressure in 2025, Maye has scrambled 15 times for 89 rushing yards. He has 0 scrambles when not pressured. Same trend occurred in his rookie season. In 164 dropbacks against pressure, he scrambled 40 times for 365 rushing yards. He had just 5 scrambles for 42 rushing yards in 253 dropbacks in a clean pocket. The Bills are allowing the most rushing yards per game to QBs. I was bullish going into this season on Maye’s rushing, especially with an OC (Josh McDaniels) that has a history of having his QB run. Love the upside here for Maye on SNF against last season’s MVP.

Suggested Pick:

Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

40+ Rushing Yards (+220)

50+ Rushing Yards (+400)

Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (+106)

Anytime TD (+400)

 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

This backfield continues to be a 3-man committee. Stevenson leads the team with 31 rush attempts, with Treveyon and Gibson adding in with 26 and 19 respectively. The receiving game has been split between Stevenson and Henderson, with 38.2% and 32.2% route rates respectively. He’s averaging 31.3 rushing yards per game on 4.03 YPC. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 11^th worst in EPA/Rush. They are allowing 2.62 yards before contact per attempt (2^nd most). They are also allowing the highest explosive run rate (11%) and the most explosive yards (286). Rhamondre has a 6.5% explosive run rate for 43 yards. 64.5% of his attempts have been man/gap concept, where he’s averaging 4.35 YPC and has a 45% success rate. The Bills are allowing 5.51 YPC (6^th most) and a 57.1% success rate against this run concept. In the receiving game, Rhamondre has had some large outputs (88 yards week 2), but also some duds (3 yards last week). Hard to trust him here against a Bills defense that has allowed just 62 total receiving yards to the position this season (2^nd fewest). The game script is bearish as 8.5-point underdogs, but considering the bullish matchup, I lean over on rush yards.

Suggested Pick:

Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-116)

 

RB Treveyon Henderson

Treveyon did not see an expanded role last week despite 3 total fumbles from the other 2 RBs the week prior. He has just a 36% snap share and has 26 rush attempts to Stevenson and Gibson’s 31 and 19 respectively. He has a 32.2% route participation rate, which is lower than Stevenson’s 38.2%. He’s averaging 24.3 rushing yards per game on 3.73 YPC. He did find the endzone for the first time last week, which is encouraging. In the receiving game, he’s averaging 3.3 receptions and 21.8 receiving yards per game. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 11^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed. They are allowing 2.62 yards before contact per attempt (2^nd most). They are also allowing the highest explosive run rate (11%) and the most explosive yards (286). Treveyon has yet to record an explosive run but was known for that ability coming out of college. The Patriots are 8.5-point underdogs, so this could turn into a passing game script quick. The Bills have allowed just 62 total receiving yards to RB to start the season (2^nd fewest). The Bills have played two-high at the 6^th highest rate (59.3%). Treveyon has been targeted on 31% of his routes against two-high, compared to 22% against single-high. However, it’s hard to have trust in Henderson until he carves out a meaningful role. I would however take a longshot on his longest rush, as the Bills have been susceptible to big runs.

Suggested Pick:

Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (-125)

20+ Yard Longest Rush (+600)

30+ Yard Longest Rush (+1600)

 

WR Stefon Diggs

After averaging a 56.2% route participation rate through 3 weeks, Diggs increased that to 77.3% in week 4. He exploded for 6 receptions and 101 receiving yards. He now leads the team in receiving yards with 53.3 per game. He’s averaging 2.37 YPRR, has been targeted on 24% of his routes, and has a 1^st-read rate of 20.7%. However, that 1^st-read rate was 41.7% last week. Looks like he is becoming comfortable in this new offense and has a full-time role post ACL surgery. What a great time for a revenge game against his former team. The Bills rank 9^th best in EPA/Pass allowed and are allowing the fewest receiving yards per game (125.8). The Patriots are 8.5-point underdogs with a 48.5 game total; Maye will likely be forced to air it out. Through 4 weeks, the Bills have pressured the QB at a 47.2% rate, 2^nd highest. Diggs was targeted twice on 7 pressures last week. The Bills have played two-high at the 6^th highest rate to start the season (59.3%), a trend that continues from last season. Diggs has negative production splits against two-high, averaging 1.56 YPRR, but his TPRR increases to 26%. I want to target Diggs receptions in a passing game script against his former team.

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (+120)

6+ Receptions (+245)

7+ Receptions (+481)

 

WR Kayshon Boutte

After exploding for 6 reception and 103 receiving yards in week 1, Boutte has been quiet. He’s averaging just 1.3 receptions and 20.7 yards in the past 3 games. Week 4 was the first week that Diggs ran more routes than Boutte. Overall, Boutte is averaging 41.3 receiving yards per game, 1.53 YPRR, and has been targeted on 14% of his routes. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 9^th best in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the fewest passing yards per game (125.8). This is a positive passing game script with the Patriots 8.5-point underdogs, but it’s tough to have any confidence outside of Diggs and Henry. Through 4 weeks, the Bills have pressured the QB at a 47.2% rate, 2^nd highest. Boutte has just 37 total receiving yards and has been targeted on just 4% of his routes when Maye is pressured. The Bills have played two-high at the 6^th highest rate to start the season (59.3%), a trend that continues from last season. Boutte averages 1.7 YPRR and has been targeted on 12% of his routes against two-high. I lean under.

Suggested Pick:

Under 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

TE Hunter Henry

Through 4 weeks, Henry is averaging 51 receiving yards per game, 1.89 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He is first on the team in 1^st-read rate at 21.7%. He’ll likely become the 2^nd look as Diggs sees a full-time role. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 9^th best in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the fewest passing yards per game (125.8). They allow the fewest receiving yards to TEs specifically as well. This is a positive passing game script with the Patriots 8.5-point underdogs. Through 4 weeks, the Bills have pressured the QB at a 47.2% rate, 2^nd highest. Henry’s 1^st-read rate has increased to 41.2% when Maye is under pressure. Some of this likely funnels to Diggs as they build chemistry, but for now Henry is Maye’s safety blanket. The Bills have played two-high at the 6^th highest rate to start the season (59.3%), a trend that continues from last season. Henry has negative splits against two-high, averaging 1.02 YPRR and 16% TPRR. Henry has 3 TDs through 4 weeks, with the high game total and likely passing game script, I like Henry’s anytime TD.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime TD (+235)

QB Josh Allen

Through 4 weeks, Allen is averaging 241 passing yards per game, 7.97 YPA and a 70.2% completion rate. He’s thrown 7 TDs and 1 interception. On the ground, he’s averaging 7.8 attempts for 39.8 rushing yards. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 7^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed through 4 weeks. They did get Christian Gonzalez back last week and ranked near the middle of the pack in EPA/Pass allowed, but this was against Bryce Young and the Panthers, tough to get a true sense on the impact of this passing defense in a 1 game sample size. The Patriots have the 9^th lowest pressure rate (33.3%). Allen averaging 8.63 YPA and a 78% completion rate when not pressured, compared to 5.97 YPA and a 46.7% completion rate when pressured. It’s hard to have any conviction in the running game matchup as the Patriots have yet to play a QB that leans on their legs. They have allowed just 14 rushing yards from QB as a result. The Bills have a high implied total of 29-points but are also 8.5-point favorites. However, 75.7% of the yardage allowed by the Patriots has been by the pass, highest rate in the league. Allen could stuff the stat sheet early.

Suggested Pick:

Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-125)

 

RB James Cook

Through 4 games this season, Cook is 2^nd in the league in rushing yards. He’s averaging 100.3 rushing yards per game on an efficient 5.35 YPC. He leads the league in rushing TDs with 5. The key improvement for Cookt his season is his role. He handled 86.4% and 91.7% of the backfield touches the past 2 weeks. He’s averaging 18.8 attempts per game, compared to 13.7 last season. He’ll face a Patriots defense that has been strong against the run, ranking 4^th best in EPA/Rush allowed and allowing the 3^rd fewest rushing yards per game. They have allowed the 3^rd fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.10). Most of Cook’s success has come in zone concepts, which accounts for 56% of his attempts. He’s averaging 6.45 YPC and a 69% success rate. The Patriots have been stronger against zone concepts, allowing the 2^nd fewest YPC (3.00) but are middle of the pack in success rate allowed (43.9%). This will be the toughest test yet for the Patriots as their first 4 contests were against struggling rush offenses. Despite the difficult matchup on paper, I think this Bills run game is on a different level, I lean towards Cook’s overs.

Suggested Pick:

Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

Over 75.5 Rush Yards (-120)

 

WR Khalil Shakir

Through 54 games this season, Shakir is averaging 47.5 receiving yards per game, 1.81 YPRR, has been targeted on 17% of his routes and a 15.2% 1^st-read rate. Josh Allen continues to spread the ball around. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 7^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed but just got their best corner (Christian Gonzalez) back last week. The Patriots have the 9^th lowest pressure rate (33.3%). Shakir is averaging 2.23 YPRR and 23% TPRR when Allen has not been pressured. Shakir is running 69.5% of his routes out of the slot. The Patriots rank 10^th worst in EPA/Pass against the slot, allowing 68.8 receiving yards per game to the alignment. In the matchup that Josh Allen played last season, Shakir caught 2 of 6 targets for 22 yards. The Patriots top 3 coverages to start the season are Cover 3 (26.8%), Cover 1 (26.1%), and Cover 4 (18.8%). Shakir has positive splits against these coverages, averaging 2.26 YPRR and 20% TPRR.

Suggested Pick:

Over 3.5 Receptions (-125)

5+ Receptions (+175)

 

WR Keon Coleman

Coleman is averaging 50.8 receiving yards per game, 1.95 YPRR, has been targeted on 21% of his routes and leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 25.3%. Josh Allen continues to spread the ball around. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 7^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed but just got their best corner (Christian Gonzalez) back last week. The Patriots have the 9^th lowest pressure rate (33.3%). Coleman is averaging 2.45 YPRR and 26% TPRR when Allen is not pressured. Coleman is primarily lining up out wide, at an 87.5% rate. The Patriots rank 6^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed to wide alignment, allowing 114.3 receiving yards per game to the alignment. Christian Gonzalez returned last week and primarily lines up out wide (41 of 49 snaps last week), so I’d downgrade Coleman against the Patriots star CB. Coleman had just 1 catch for 17 yards last season in the matchup that Josh Allen played in. He continues to be a boom or bust guy as most his production came in week 1 (112 receiving yards). The Patriots top 3 coverages to start the season are Cover 3 (26.8%), Cover 1 (26.1%), and Cover 4 (18.8%). Coleman has negative splits against these coverages, averaging 1.63 YPRR and 19% TPRR.

Suggested Pick:

Under 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid is averaging 44.8 receiving yards per game, 2.24 YPRR, has been targeted on 23% of his routes, and has a 1^st-read rate of 16.5%. He leads the team with 3 receiving touchdowns. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 7^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed but just got their best corner (Christian Gonzalez) back last week. The Patriots have the 9^th lowest pressure rate (33.3%). Kincaid is averaging 3.33 YPRR and 25% TPRR when Allen has not been pressured. Kincaid is lining up all over, 53.8% of the time in the slot, 26.3% rate inline and 20% out wide. In terms of EPA/Pass allowed, the Patriots rank 10^th worst against the slot, 7^th worst against inline and 6^th worst against wide alignment. The Patriots are allowing the 7^th most receiving yards and 9^th most targets to tight ends. In the matchup last season with Josh Allen at QB, Kincaid caught 4 of 7 targets for 15 yards. The Patriots top 3 coverages to start the season are Cover 3 (26.8%), Cover 1 (26.1%), and Cover 4 (18.8%). Kincaid has positive splits against these coverages, averaging 2.98 YPRR and 25% TPRR.

Suggested Pick

Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Over 3.5 Receptions (+106)

5+ Receptions (+228)

Anytime Touchdown (+250)

The Bills failed to cover the spread in their previous 2 games against the Saints and Dolphins. These were 14.5- and 11.5-point spreads respectively. Divisional games tend to be closer and I think the Patriots can make this a 1-score game. In the game Josh Allen played last season, the Bills won by a field goal. With Christian Gonzalez back for the Patriots, New England’s defense should improve on the margin. They are also stronger against the run, which is where the Bills have dominated opponents. Drake Maye has looked like a star and I believe he rises to the occasion (but falls short) against last season’s MVP.

Best Bet: Patriots +8.5 (-110)
Lean: Under 49.5 (-108)
Score Prediction: Patriots 21 Bills 27

Anytime TD Picks

Drake Maye (Patriots) +400

The Bills have the 2^nd highest pressure rate but just the 11^th highest sack rate, a recipe for QB scrambles. Maye has massive splits in his tendencies to run against pressure compared to a clean pocket. Josh McDaniels also has had a tendency in the past to rush his QBs at a high rate, in a big game against their division rival, I wouldn’t be surprised if McDaniels pulls out one of his designed QB run plays near the goal line. Maye looks like a future star and he’ll be playing on Sunday Night Football against the former MVP, he’ll leave it all out there!

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) +250

Kincaid leads the Bills with 3 receiving touchdowns this season. The Patriots are allowing the 7^th most receiving yards and 9^th most targets to tight end. Kincaid has positive splits against the Patriots top 3 coverages, averaging 2.98 YPRR and 25% TPRR. He has seen a redzone target in each of the last 3 matchups against the Patriots. The Patriots defense has been better against the run compared to the pass, so leaning pass catcher over Cook.

 

1st Touchdown

Drake Maye (Patriots) +2500

Same analysis as anytime TD, these odds are insane! Maye has already rushed 4 times in the red zone this season.

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) +1400

Same analysis as anytime TD, and Kincaid has also seen a lot of his production in the 1^st quarter. He’s averaging 13.4 receiving yards and already has 2 touchdowns in the 1^st quarter this season. Great odds for Allen’s preferred red zone target as 8.5-point favorites.

Parlay #1 (+1096)

Drake Maye Over 27.5 Rushing Yards
Drake Maye Anytime TD
Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 Receptions

 

Parlay #2 (+443)

Josh Allen 2+ Passing TDs
James Cook Over 76.5 Rushing Yards
Kincaid Over 33.5 Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #3 (+1059)

Josh Allen 2+ Passing TDs
Drake Maye Over 27.5 Rushing Yards
Stefon Diggs Most Receiving Yards