QB Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are coming off the bye, ready to put Week 9's upsetting Monday Night Football loss to the Arizona Cardinals behind them and get back in the win column against the Las Vegas Raiders. Las Vegas allows the 14th most completions (22.0) and the 15th most pass attempts (33) per game, but they tighten up yardage and scoring, giving up the 16th fewest passing yards (227.4) and the 9th fewest passing touchdowns (1.3). The Raiders run zone at the highest rate in the NFL (83.8%) and Cover 3 at the 2nd highest (45.2%). Against zone, he’s been one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks. He’s faced the 11th most dropbacks (237), has the 6th highest completion percentage (73.5%), averages the 12th most passing yards per game (178.1), and has a strong 96.9 QBR. Against Cover 3, Prescott has the 6th highest completion percentage (75.8%), a solid 8.0 yards per attempt and the 3rd highest QBR (115.8) in the NFL. The Raiders are fairly good at limiting the legs of opposing QBs, allowing the 9th fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks (16.0), but Prescott doesn't rely on his legs for much of his production. He does it all with his arm. And against a zone-heavy team, Prescott should be able to pick this Raiders pass defence apart. It's also worth noting that the Cowboys added a few defensive players, and the Raiders could be without three of their starting offensive linemen in this matchup. This would put the ball in Dak's hands, which I'm sure is the Cowboys' preferred scenario. Prescott has 250+ passing yards in 3/L4 and 6/9 games this season.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott 250+ Passing Yards (-130)

RB Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams enters Week 11 as the league's seventh-highest rusher. Who would have thought that coming into the season? This week, he gets the Raiders rush defence, which allows the 11th-most rush attempts per game (21.8) and the 14th-fewest rushing yards (86.4). The Raiders operate with an almost even split between zone (39.3%) and man/gap (43.4%). And their yards allowed per carry are similar across concepts — 4.16 against zone and 3.94 against man/gap. This season, Williams has been substantially more productive against man/gap looks, averaging a strong 5.95 yards per carry compared to 4.27 against zone. Williams hasn't been much of a factor in the passing game over the last three games, catching just three of his six targets for 10 receiving yards. So, the fact that the Raiders are allowing the 12th most receptions to running backs (4.7) while giving up the 9th fewest receiving yards (25.9) doesn't mean much for Javonte. We will stick on the ground for him this week, in what is a much easier matchup than the numbers would suggest. Coming off the bye and a loss before that, the Cowboys should be coming for vengeance and beat up on a poor Raiders team. If they are to walk away with the victory, Javonte has some solid numbers on the ground in wins this season. In the three Cowboys wins, Javonte has 97, 135, and 116 rushing yards. So, if you think the Cowboys win, Javonte likely goes over his rushing yards line.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams o74.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR CeeDee Lamb

This is quite the juicy matchup for CeeDee Lamb. The Raiders allow the 8th most receptions to opposing wide receivers (12.7) and the 16th most receiving yards (146) per game. The fact that the Raiders run the league's most zone coverage is the biggest advantage for Lamb this week. CeeDee has 21 receptions on 33 targets for 320 yards across 129 routes while earning the team's highest target share (21.3%). He’s been more reliable and explosive against zone than he has against man, logging a 77.3% catch rate, 15.5 yards per reception, and 6.2 yards after the catch per grab – all better numbers than his man splits. Against Cover 3, a coverage the Raiders run at the 2nd highest rate – Lamb has 6 catches on 8 targets for 74 yards on 44 routes against the coverage. Typically known as a slot receiver, Lamb has surprisingly played 68% of his snaps out wide. And the Raiders have struggled against outside receivers this season, allowing the 14th highest target rate (118), the 4th highest catch rate (68.3%), and receiving yards per game (126.4), and the 11th highest yards per reception (14.05). When reading into defensive numbers, you'd likely find that teams that allow a high target rate typically allow a lower catch rate due to the high volume. However, that's not the case for the Raiders. And if you're going to throw those numbers at Lamb, he's going to make you pay. Lamb has logged 7+ receptions in two straight games.

Suggested pick:

CeeDee Lamb o6.5 Receptions (-125)

WR George Pickens

Having CeeDee Lamb return really hasn't affected George Pickens' production. Does he see fewer targets? Of course. But that's expected. However, it hasn't slowed down his yardage totals, logging 75+ yards in three straight contests – all with Lamb in the lineup. And you'd figure a one-on-one boundary receiver like Pickens would thrive against man coverage – which he has – he actually performs better against zone coverage, at which the Raiders run at the league's highest rate. He’s caught 31 of 41 targets for 464 yards on 213 routes against zone coverage, delivering an 80.5% catch rate and a strong 2.82 yards per route run. His yards per reception (15.6) and yards after catch (4.2) are slightly lower than his man-coverage production, but the overall efficiency and reliability don't dip. Against Cover 3, Pickens has been one of the league’s most productive receivers, earning the highest target share (24.2%) on the Cowboys, turning that into 18 receptions on 23 targets for 290 yards on just 85 routes. Like Lamb, Pickens lines up out wide, but at an 88.2% rate. We've covered how the Raiders struggle against that alignment, but we only tapped into the high catch rate and now the high yards per reception they allow to the boundary. We all know Pickens' deep ball ability, and it shouldn't be a surprise that he leads the Cowboys in aDoT against both of the Raiders' most used coverage (13.8 vs. zone and 15.4 vs. Cover 3). With that in mind, we think it's time for Pickens to catch another deep ball. It's been a while, as he hasn't logged a 20+ reception in two straight weeks. But before that, he logged games with 40+ yard receptions.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens o24.5 Longest Reception (-115)

TE Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson bounced back after his donut performance with five receptions on seven targets for 50 receiving yards against the Cardinals. This week, he faces a Raiders defence that allows the 4th-most receptions (6.7) and the 4th-most receiving yards (68.7) per game to tight ends. Against zone, Ferguson has caught 38 of 43 targets for 300 yards on 175 zone routes, posting an elite 89.2% catch rate with strong efficiency across the board, averaging 8.1 yards per reception, 4.9 yards after the catch, and 1.8 yards per route run – all of which are better than his man splits. Against Cover 3, Ferguson has been automatic, recording 14 receptions on 15 targets for 120 yards on 61 routes. Since CeeDee Lamb’s return, Ferguson has run 70.6% and 61.2% of his routes from the slot. He also runs routes from the inline position, but we'll use his most recent alignment for this week. Las Vegas allows the 7th highest catch rate (74.4%) to slot receivers and a middle-of-the-pack 62.3 receiving yards per game to the position. We don't love taking all overs, especially two over receptions, but the matchup just lines up too nicely for Ferguson and the rest of this Cowboys offence. Ferguson has logged 5+ receptions in three of his last five outings and seven of his nine games this season.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson o4.5 Receptions (-125)

QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith enters this matchup in one of the coldest stretches of his career, failing to surpass 150 passing yards in two straight games and averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt in last week’s loss to Denver. He completed 16 of 26 passes for 143 yards with an interception, briefly leaving the game due to a quad injury, but all indications suggest he’ll attempt to suit up on Monday night. This matchup, however, is a dramatic shift in environment. Dallas has quietly become one of the NFL’s most generous pass defenses, giving up 271.8 passing yards per game (3rd-most) and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game (most in the league). Their heavy reliance on Cover 3 at a 37.4% rate aligns unusually well with Geno’s strengths—against Cover 3 this season, he averages 7.99 yards per attempt, a 12.1% completion percentage over expected, and a strong 98.7 passer rating across 74 dropbacks. The Cowboys’ coverage profile also shows significant cracks: they allow 9.6 yards per target and one of the league’s worst first-down-or-touchdown rates (40.4%) when in zone coverage. Even with Las Vegas’ offensive volatility, this is the first matchup in weeks where Geno is projected to operate from a clean pocket against a defense that has bottom-tier efficiency metrics at all coverage levels. As long as health cooperates, this is the clearest statistical bounce-back window he has had in over a month.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 231.5 Passing Yards (-115)

RB Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty continues to operate as the Raiders’ top offensive engine, logging an 87% snap share last week while producing 19 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown, along with 3 receptions on 5 targets. Despite ranking near the bottom of all qualifying RBs in explosive run rate (2.1%) and stuff rate (53.1%), Jeanty’s volume and expanded passing-down role have stabilized his weekly production. This matchup amplifies those strengths, as Dallas’ front has quietly become vulnerable on the ground, allowing 2.36 adjusted yards before contact per attempt (7th-highest) and 110.3 rushing yards per game (7th-most). Even more importantly for Jeanty’s profile, the Cowboys surrender 45.7 receiving yards per game to RBs (2nd-most) and were just gashed for 111 rushing yards by J.K. Dobbins two weeks ago. Cover-3 heavy teams historically concede easy underneath RB access, and Jeanty has back-to-back games with 5 targets—the second-highest total he has seen all season. With Las Vegas expected to emphasize quick, horizontal touches to neutralize Dallas’ pass rush and given the high projected total, Jeanty’s efficiency metrics matter far less than his projected workload in the most advantageous RB matchup the Raiders have seen since Week 4.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 86.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Tre Tucker

Tre Tucker’s usage profile shifted sharply with Brock Bowers’ return, producing just 3 catches for 38 yards against Jacksonville and 2 for 28 yards against Denver, yet he maintained a team-leading 94.3% route share last week—his highest of the season. The Cowboys’ defense presents an ideal structural counter for Tucker’s skill set: they deploy Cover 3 on 37.4% of snaps, and Tucker averages 1.72 yards per route run and a 17% target-per-route rate versus that coverage, his best split against any defensive look. Dallas is allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter WRs (136.4) and the third-highest yards per route run allowed to outside receivers (2.52), metrics directly reflected in the table: Tre Tucker has produced 7 receptions for 111 yards vs. man and 26 receptions for 340 yards vs. zone, demonstrating strong efficiency across both coverage types. With Las Vegas projected to trail and Smith likely forced above his normal volume level, Tucker’s elevated route share and his alignment against one of the most vulnerable secondaries in football create a clear runway for his highest-yardage opportunity since Week 3.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers saw a steep drop in box-score output last week, recording just a single 31-yard catch against Denver, but his underlying usage remained elite: 71% route share, 11% target share, and multiple high-leverage designs that were simply disrupted by Denver’s top-5 man coverage unit. Dallas is a substantially better matchup, both schematically and statistically. Against Cover 3, where the Cowboys rank 6th-highest in usage, Bowers averages a massive 3.48 yards per route run and a 30% target-per-route rate, which are elite TE numbers even at the NFL level. The Cowboys allow 6.0 receptions per game to TEs (10th-most) and 55.6 receiving yards per game to the position, while also giving up 40.4% first-down-or-touchdown rate when in zone, usually the coverage where tight ends do most of their damage. Trey McBride’s 5/55/1 line two weeks ago is a relevant comp, as McBride—like Bowers—functions as a hybrid slot/outside receiving weapon rather than a traditional inline TE. With Dallas’ secondary prioritizing deep safety shells to guard the perimeter, the middle of the field becomes the most efficient route for Las Vegas to sustain drives, positioning Bowers for a return to high-volume production.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 74.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

We have seen some really bad primetime games over the last couple weeks but this game has the potential to be a shootout. The Cowboys defense is AWFUL and that offense is electric. The Cowboys L5 games the total has gone over in 4/5 but The Raiders L5 games the total has gone under 4/5. Geno Smith is 1-5 in his L6 primetime games scoring below 13 points in 3 of them. The Cowboys this year have scored 20,40,17 points in their 3 primetime games. I think taking Cowboys at the -2.5 and taking the high toal under are the best bets.

Best Bet Cowboys -2.5 -155
Lean Under 49.5 -130
Game Prediction Cowboys 24 Raiders 14

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Cowboys): George Pickens Anytime TD (+150)

After finding the end zone six times through his first six games, Pickens' scoring touch has cooled off over the past three, not finding the end zone at all. Pickens has three TDs against zone coverage this season, and oddly enough, all three have been against Cover 3, the Raiders' most used coverage. Pickens leads the Cowboys in end zone targets with 14 – more than double the next pass catcher. The Raiders allow 1.1 receiving TDs per game to opposing WRs, the 8th highest in the league.

Best Play (Raiders) Ashton Jeanty (-150)

Ashton Jeanty enters this matchup operating as one of the most voluminous and stable pieces in the Raiders’ offense, handling 87% of the snaps last week while posting 19 carries and another 5 targets in the passing game. His role continues to expand as Las Vegas uses him as both an early-down grinder and a check-down outlet, and he now has back-to-back weeks with 5 targets — a massive floor raiser for touchdown volatility. Dallas presents a uniquely favorable scoring environment: the Cowboys allow the second-most receiving yards to RBs (45.7 per game), the seventh-most rushing yards per game (110.3), and the seventh-highest YBC/ATT (2.36). More importantly for touchdown expectation, they are tied for the most rushing TDs allowed over the last three games (1.7 per game) and have surrendered a league-high 40.4% first-down-plus-touchdown rate in zone coverage reps. Jeanty has seen his two highest snap shares of the season the last two weeks (91% and 87%), and he handled 24 opportunities in his last matchup. With the Cowboys' defense increasingly vulnerable to RB scoring near the goal line and Jeanty functioning as a true three-down back, the probability of him breaking through in the red zone here is meaningfully elevated.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Cowboys) Javonte Williams First TD (+400)

Talk about a TD machine, Javonte has scored nine TDs on the season – eight on the ground and one through the air. Three of those TDs have come in the last three weeks. Williams has scored the Cowboys' first TD in three of the nine weeks this season. The Raiders are averaging a rushing TD per game to opposing RBs – one of only five teams.

Best Pick (Raiders) Brock Bowers +660

Brock Bowers remains the premier mismatch weapon in Las Vegas’ offense, leading the team in yards per route run (3.48) and target rate (30%) versus Cover 3 — the exact look Dallas deploys at the sixth-highest rate in the league (37.4%). Even in a down performance last week, he still commanded a 71% route share and remains the clear focal point whenever the Raiders reach scoring range. The Cowboys’ profile strongly supports tight end scoring opportunities early in games: their defense ranks bottom-10 in receptions allowed to TEs (6.0 per game), gives up 55.6 receiving yards per game to the position, and most importantly has repeatedly been beaten in scripted early-game passing sequences, allowing opposing offenses to strike before defensive adjustments. Trey McBride posted 5/55/1 against Dallas in this exact matchup two weeks ago, and Dallas has been repeatedly punished by seam and cross-field TE leaks out of play action — exactly where Bowers thrives. With his explosive YAC ability, elite 3.48 YPRR vs Cover 3, and the Raiders’ likelihood of using him as a tone-setter after last week's disappointment, he profiles cleanly as the most likely Raider to score first if Las Vegas punches one in through the air.

Parlay 1: (Cowboys) +750 odds on bet365

Javonte Williams 80+ Rushing Yards

George Pickens TD

Jake Ferguson 5+ Receptions

Parlay 2 (Raiders) +430

Ashton Jeanty ATD

Brock Bowers 'O' 74.5 Receiving Yards

Tre Tucker 'O' 45.5 Receiving Yards

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff enters this matchup playing some of the most efficient football of his career, coming off a sharp 25-of-33 passing performance for 320 yards (9.7 YPA) and three touchdowns. On the season, he owns a career-best 7.3% TD rate, leads the NFL with a 74.0% completion percentage, and ranks second in catchable throw rate (79.9%). The Eagles run Cover 3 (28%) and Cover 1 (22.8%) on just over half of opposing dropbacks, and Goff has been outstanding against these shells, averaging 8.31 yards per attempt with an 8.6% completion percentage over expected and a 121.2 passer rating across 151 such dropbacks. Where this matchup becomes especially interesting is Philadelphia’s vulnerability to play-action: since Week 6, they’ve allowed the seventh-highest YPA and 11th-highest passer rating when offenses utilize it — and Detroit has quietly transitioned into one of the league’s heaviest play-action teams, jumping from 30.1% to 51.5% usage with Dan Campbell taking over play calling. Even with Philadelphia allowing just 219.9 passing yards per game and only 0.9 passing TDs per game, Goff’s efficiency and the structure of this matchup give him a realistic path to exceeding yardage expectations, especially in a game where Detroit may need to throw to keep pace.

Suggested Play:
O 243.5 Passing Yards (-115)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs enters Week 11 with some of the most explosive efficiency metrics of any RB in football, fresh off a 15/142/2 rushing performance with an additional 30 yards and a touchdown through the air. Over his last three games, Gibbs is averaging 9.6 yards per touch, and he remains Detroit’s most dynamic space-player — especially relevant here, because Philadelphia’s defense is constructed to force checkdowns and perimeter touches, allowing the 10th-most receiving yards per game to RBs (35.4). On the ground, the Eagles allow the seventh-fewest adjusted yards before contact (1.65) and just 87.8 rushing yards per game, but they simultaneously allow elevated explosive rates on outside runs and struggle with RB receiving production. Gibbs handles 46% of the team’s carries even in a split and owns an outsized share of perimeter rushing attempts that challenge edges — precisely where Philadelphia has yielded the most leakage this year. If Detroit leans into their screen and swing-game tendencies early, Gibbs has one of the strongest receiving matchups he’ll see all season.

Suggested Play:
O 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery remains the Lions’ primary early-down hammer, coming off a 15/71 rushing performance while playing 54% of snaps and leading the backfield in route share (46%). While Philadelphia fields one of the league’s toughest run fronts on a down-to-down basis — seventh-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.65) — they simultaneously surrender the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt and the 13th-highest missed tackle rate since Week 6. Montgomery ranks 19th among RBs in yards after contact and sees consistent inside-the-five usage whenever Detroit reaches the red zone. This matchup profiles far more as a grind than a breakout spot, as the Eagles allow only 87.8 rushing yards per game, but Montgomery has averaged 14–17 carries in neutral scripts and has a stable role in high-leverage TD opportunities. Given the matchup strength of Philadelphia’s pass defense in the red zone, the Lions may choose to finish drives on the ground — which increases Montgomery’s TD equity more than his yardage upside.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+170)

WR Amon-Ra St Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to operate as Detroit’s most reliable chain-mover, coming off a 5/58/1 line on eight targets while maintaining a 23% target share. Against the Eagles’ primary coverage structures — Cover 3 and Cover 1 — ARSB has produced strong efficiency, averaging 2.43 yards per route run and earning targets on 29% of his routes (elite territory). However, Philadelphia has excelled at limiting slot receivers all season, allowing the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot alignments (55.9) and the second-fewest yards per route run (1.28). The Eagles rank top-five in yards allowed per coverage snap and explosive pass rate prevention from the slot, but they also allow opponents to sustain long drives, creating high expected volume for Detroit’s passing game overall. St. Brown’s elite short-area separation (2.4 average yards of cushion vs. zone) and heavy play-action usage position him as Goff’s most stable chain-moving option, even if the matchup suppresses efficiency. ARSB has reached at least five receptions in 19 of his last 20 games — and should again.

Suggested Play:
O 6.5 Receptions (+121)

TE Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta enters this matchup having caught five passes in four of his last five games, including a 53-yard outing last week on a 71% route share. His involvement against zone-heavy defenses has been stable — 1.71 YPRR and a .17 target per route rate against the Eagles’ preferred Cover 3 and Cover 1 shells — but this is one of the most difficult TE matchups in the NFL. Philadelphia allows the third-fewest receiving yards per game to the position (31.6), the sixth-fewest receptions per game (3.9), and has surrendered just a single tight end touchdown all season. With the Eagles generating elite middle-field leverage through their safety rotation and matchup zones, LaPorta is likely to see shorter-depth targets without the high-YAC opportunities he sees against softer coverages. While his volume should remain stable, the probability of extended yardage gains is lower than usual in this particular defensive environment.

Suggested Play:
U 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

QB Jalen Hurts

It wasn't pretty against the Packers last week, but Hurts and the Eagles did what they needed to do to get the win. Can they do the same this week against the Lions? Detroit allows the 12th fewest completions (20) and 15th fewest pass attempts (31.6) per game, along with just 220.7 passing yards, yet has allowed QBs to score through the air, allowing the 6th most passing touchdowns (2.0) per game. Detroit runs man at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL (39%) and Cover 1 at the 3rd highest rate (31.2%), which aligns directly with where Hurts has been at his best. Against man coverage, Hurts has been one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks. He has faced the 10th most man-coverage dropbacks (85) and ranks top-10 or better in nearly every key metric: 6th in completion percentage (65.3%), 8th in passing yards per game (74.6), and 2nd in yards per attempt (8.95) and QBR (127.8). Against Cover 1, Hurts has faced 53 dropbacks, allowing the 8th highest completion rate (65.1%), the 2nd highest yards per attempt (9.21), and the best QBR in the NFL (133.5). Has it been a great season for this Eagles passing offence? Absolutely not. But Hurts has done his best work against man-heavy teams, and that's what the Lions will throw at them this week. Hurts has thrown 2+ passing TDs in five of the last seven weeks.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts o1.5 Passing TDs (-115)

RB Saquon Barkley

Just when you thought Barkley was going to turn his season around following his big performance against the New York Giants, he followed that up with 60 rushing yards on 22 rush attempts. This week won't be much easier for Barkley against the Lions' defence, which allows the 3rd fewest rush attempts (17.4) and the 4th fewest rushing yards (71.8) per game. Detroit rush defence operates more zone concept (42.2%) than man/gap (37.4%). They are much better against zone concept, allowing a 3.64 yards per carry, compared to their 4.18 yards per carry against man/gap. Barkley has struggled against zone concept this season, averaging 3.4 yards per carry compared to 4.69 against man/gap. We nailed Barkley having success through the air last week, but he likely won't have the same success against the Lions this week, who allow just 4.2 receptions and 21.9 receiving yards to opposing RBs, both among the lowest marks in the league. It appears as though the Giants game was just an outlier compared to his season as a whole.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley u67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR AJ Brown

AJ Brown is now publicly getting frustrated with his workload in the offence, telling fantasy managers on a live stream not to start him this week. But we've been through this song and dance before. Whenever a player speaks out, they usually get their wish the following week. And it's just unfortunate for the Lions defence that they'll draw this matchup. The Lions allow the 14th fewest receptions per game to opposing WRs (10.9), but the 16th most receiving yards (141.1). Against man coverage this season, he has turned 25 targets into 16 receptions for 252 yards on just 63 routes, earning a massive 36.1% target share — more than double what he sees against zone (16.5%). His efficiency spikes in every meaningful category: a 63.6% catch rate, 17.4 yards per reception, 4.7 yards after the catch, and an elite 3.98 yards per route run. Against Cover 1 specifically, Brown has been lethal, catching 8 of 13 targets for 130 yards on 38 routes, once again commanding a team-high 36.1% target share. Brown runs most of his routes out wide (90.7%). Against outside receivers, Detroit is targeted at the 14th highest rate (118), allowing a low catch rate at 59.3%, but the 13th most yards per game (111.1) and the 8th highest yards per reception (14.3). When teams do win outside on the Lions, they tend to win big. I've learnt through this season that when the Eagles are facing a man-heavy team, target AJ Brown, and when against zone-heavy teams, target Devonta Smith. In this case, everything is aligning for a big Brown week.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown 60+ Receiving Yards (-115)

AJ Brown 80+ Receiving Yards (+200)

AJ Brown 100+ Receiving Yards (+400)

WR Devonta Smith

Regardless of the turmoil around the offence, Smith has put together three straight solid weeks, catching 19 of his 27 targets for 336 receiving yards. But as we covered, already in the Brown portion, it might be a down week for Smith. Against man coverage, he owns a 24.7% target share (up from 20% vs. zone), catching 11 of 17 targets for 142 yards on 80 routes. However, his metrics dip across the board in man: a lower catch rate (55.6%), yards per reception (12.2), yards after the catch (2.5), and yards per route run (1.67). Cover 1 brings more trouble for Smith, turning 10 targets into 6 receptions for 86 yards on 51 routes, carving out inefficient numbers opposite Brown. Smith plays 57.6% of his snaps in the slot. He’ll face a Lions secondary that is targeted at the 14th highest rate by slot receivers (91), allowing the 10th lowest catch rate (68.1%), but when completions do land, they give up the 5th highest yards per reception (11.76). We're calling for a bust week for Smith, in what should be a heavy Brown week.

Suggested pick:

Devonta Smith u4.5 Receptions (-110)

TE Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert gets a tricky matchup in Week 11 as he faces a Detroit defence that has historically been tight defensively against TEs. The Lions allow the 10th fewest receptions (4.9) and the 16th fewest receiving yards (50.7) per game to the position. Against man coverage, Goedert has caught nine of 12 targets for just 61 yards on 57 routes, with his efficiency dipping across the board outside of yards after the catch. His yards after catch per reception (4.9) actually improves in man, but his catch rate (81.8%), yards per reception (6.8), and yards per route run (1.16) all fall below his zone production. And it's more of the same for Goedert against Cover 1, as Goedert has caught four of his six targets for 34 receiving yards. Goedert lines up all over the field, but ran 52.1% of his routes inline last week, and Detroit has been one of the stingiest teams in the league at defending inline targets. They are targeted at the 3rd lowest rate (19), allow the 3rd lowest catch rate (63.2%), and give up the fewest yards per reception (6.0). For a player like Goedert, who relies heavily on being a reliable short and intermediate option, this isn't the ideal matchup.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert u38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

I think Lions pull off the mini upset here. Give me the Lions +3.5

Best Bet Lions +3.5 -120
Lean Under 46.5 -120
Game Prediction Lions 24 Eagles 21

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Eagles): AJ Brown TD (+130)

Brown hasn't found the end zone much this season, but he's tallied three on the season. However, all three of those TDs came against man coverage this season, to which we already know the Lions run at the 2nd highest rate in the league. He has four red zone targets and one end zone target against man this season, also seeing a 41.6% first-read percentage when facing man this season – leading the team.

Best Pick: David Montgomery (+170)

David Montgomery remains the Lions’ primary early-down hammer, coming off a 15/71 rushing performance while playing 54% of snaps and leading the backfield in route share (46%). While Philadelphia fields one of the league’s toughest run fronts on a down-to-down basis — seventh-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.65) — they simultaneously surrender the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt and the 13th-highest missed tackle rate since Week 6. Montgomery ranks 19th among RBs in yards after contact and sees consistent inside-the-five usage whenever Detroit reaches the red zone. This matchup profiles far more as a grind than a breakout spot, as the Eagles allow only 87.8 rushing yards per game, but Montgomery has averaged 14–17 carries in neutral scripts and has a stable role in high-leverage TD opportunities. Given the matchup strength of Philadelphia’s pass defense in the red zone, the Lions may choose to finish drives on the ground — which increases Montgomery’s TD equity more than his yardage upside.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Eagles) AJ Brown First TD (+750)

Brown caught the first TD for the Eagles just two weeks ago, after the noise was so loud about him being upset. I think they get their disgruntled WR in the game early to get his confidence back up, and nothing fixes that better than an early TD. The Lions are allowing the 2nd most TDs (1.44) to opposing WRs this season.

Best Pick: (Lions) Sam LaPorta

LaPorta has run 71% of routes, and inside the 10-yard line he owns a 27% first-read share, the highest on the team outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Against zone coverage — which Philadelphia uses at 69.4%, one of the highest rates in the league — LaPorta’s efficiency jumps, producing 1.71 yards per route and earning targets on 17% of routes, which gives him predictable short-area usage on opening drives when Detroit leans on quick hitters. With the Eagles allowing opponents to reach the red zone on 34.7% of drives (22nd in the NFL), Detroit is likely to generate at least one early scoring chance, and LaPorta’s combination of red-zone involvement, route participation, and favorable schematic overlap makes him a high-leverage candidate for the game’s first touchdown.

Parlay 1: (Eagles) +275 odds on bet365

AJ Brown TD

AJ Brown 70+ Receiving Yards

QB Justin Fields

Fields is averaging 142.9 passing yards per game, 6.42 YPA and a 63.5% completion rate. He’s thrown 6 touchdowns and 1 interception. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 14^th in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 12^th most passing yards per game. Fields will be without his top receiver, Garrett Wilson, after he returned last week only to get injured once again. The Jets have the 2^nd lowest pass rate over expected this season. With the Patriots 14-point favorites, the Jets may be forced to throw if New England gets out to an early lead. It wouldn’t surprise me if Fields gets benched at some point during this game if the offense doesn’t get going. Tyrod Taylor has been a much more willing thrower, albeit he’s also been awful. From a rushing perspective, Fields is averaging 39.5 yards per game, but has been under 32 yards in 5 straight. The Patriots are allowing the 5^th fewest rushing yards and fewest rushing TDs to QB.

Suggested Pick:

Under 175.5 Pass + Rushing Yards (-115)

RB Breece Hall/Isaiah Davis

Breece Hall averages 73.8 rushing yards per game, 4.81 YPC and leads the league in explosive rush rate amongst qualified RBs at 10.9%. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 6^th best in EPA/Rush allowed and have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (79.2). On a per rush basis, the Patriots defense ranks 4^th best, allowing 3.77 YPC. They have allowed the 7^th fewest explosive rush yards (138). They are specifically strong against zone concept, allowing the fewest YPC (3.16). They allow the 9^th fewest YPC against man/gap (3.95). 72.5% of Hall’s rush attempts have been zone concept, where he’s averaging 4.95 YPC, compared to 4.63 YPC in man/gap. In the receiving game, Hall’s role has been diminished. He’s had a 27.3%, 23.7%, and 18.8% route participation rates the past 3 weeks. That compares to a 38.5% route participation rate from weeks 1 to 6. Isaiah Davis has cut into his role. Breece caught his only target, a screen pass that he housed for 42 yards. The Patriots are allowing the most receptions and 9^th most receiving yards to RB. Considering Davis has a 45.5%, 34.2% and 31.3% route participation rate the past 3 weeks, I’d rather play his receiving line over Breece. He’s had 22, 44 and 1 receiving yard the past 3 weeks. Breece’s rushing props have steamed too far down to recommend taking his unders. If Davis receptions line becomes available I may prefer that angle depending on line.

Suggested Pick:

Isaiah Davis Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

WR Isaiah Williams, Tyler Johnson, Arian Smith, Adonai Mitchell

Wilson is once again out with an injury. There’s no bright spot in this receiving room, especially with Fields at QB. Last week, Fields threw for 7 passing yards to his WRs. Isaiah Williams ran 9 routes, while Smith and Johnson both ran 8 last week. In weeks 7 and 8 when Wilson sat out, Smith led the WRs in receiving with 53 yards. Lazard and Reynolds were 2 and 3, but Reynolds is on IR and Lazard was a healthy scratch last week (monitor if Lazard suits up this week). The most interesting WR in my opinion is newly acquired Adonai Mitchell. He was a scratch last weekend as he just joined the team. I expect him to be activated tonight. Head coach Aaron Glenn on AD Mitchell, “AD Mitchell is big, fast physical. He looks like a true X receiver. He can stretch the defense. AD Mitchell is a true X receiver. He is one that can win the 1-on-1 battle, the slants, digs, go-balls.” He then explained why he was inactive last week, “We wanted to make sure that he was confident and we were confident of not putting him in a position to go out there and make a mistake. I think with another week of learning our playbook, he’ll be just fine”. Probably wouldn’t take him straight at a 13.5-line, but he’s worth some longshots as the Jets are 2 touchdown underdogs.

Suggested Pick:

AD Mitchell 25+ Receiving Yards (+198)

30+ Receiving Yards (+300)

40+ Receiving Yards (+675)

50+ Receiving Yards (+790)

TE Mason Taylor

On the season, Mason Taylor is averaging 27.3 receiving yards per game, 1.03 YPRR, and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. In the 2 games Wilson missed, Taylor led the Jets in receiving averaging 32.5 yards, 1.02 YPRR and 19% TPRR. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 14^th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 8^th most receiving yards to TE. As 2 touchdown underdogs, this team will likely be forced to throw. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Fields gets benched mid game if they struggle, which would be bullish for Taylor as Tyrod is a much more willing passer, albeit not great. The Patriots top 3 coverages this season have been Cover 3 (27.6%), Cover 2 (20.3%) and Cover 4 (20.1%). Against these 3 coverages, Taylor averages 1.16 YPRR and 17% TPRR. Taylor has been inconsistent, catching just 1 pass for 4 yards last Sunday. It’s hard to have much faith in any weapons with Fields at QB, I lean under 4.5 receptions.

Suggested Pick:

Under 4.5 Receptions (-135)

QB Drake Maye

Drake Maye is averaging 255.5 passing yards per game, 8.93 YPA and a 71.7% completion rate. He’s thrown 19 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’ll face a Jets defense that on the season is 9^th worst in EPA/pass but has allowed the 8^th fewest passing yards per game mainly due to the fact teams tend to be up big against them. They force the 4^th lowest pass rate over expected, meaning teams tend to attack them via the ground. The Jets traded 2 key defensive players at the deadline, CB Sauce Gardner to the Colts and DT Quinnen Williams to the Cowboys. The Jets have the 4^th lowest pressure rate on the season (33.3%). Maye averages 8.93 YPA and an 80.4% completion rate when not pressured. New England is 13-point favorites, so Maye may see success early, but the Patriots likely dial it down if this becomes a blow out. From a rushing perspective, the Jets are allowing the 4^th most rushing yards per game to QB. Maye is averaging 6.6 attempts per game for 28.3 rushing yards per game. He rushed 3 times for 46 yards in his last matchup against the Jets. I’m just hesitant with this being a likely blow out game script.

Suggested Pick:

Under 28.5 Pass Attempts (-106)

RB Treveyon Henderson

In the first game with Rhamondre Stevenson ruled out, Henderson lead the way with 14 carries for 55 rushing yards, averaging 3.93 YPC. Jennings rushed 11 times for 35 yards, averaging 3.18 YPC. Jennings received the inside the 5 work and converted with a TD. Despite the 2 being close in carries, Henderson played 75% of the snaps. He had a 67.5% route participation rate, compared to Jennings’ 10%. Last week against the Bucs, Jennings got hurt early, so Treveyon was the bell cow. He rushed 14 times for 147 yards and 2 TDs, his true breakout game. That included 2 explosive runs of 55 and 69 yards, the type of plays we expected to see from him coming out of college. Treveyon is averaging 7.24 YPC on outside runs, compared to 3.60 YPC on inside runs. Treveyon will remain the lead back with Rhamondre ruled out again, and will face a Jets defense that ranks 8^th worst in EPA/Rush and allowing the 8^th most rushing yards per game (138.2). The Patriots are 13-point favorites, so expect a running game script. The Jets are allowing 4.9 YPC on outside runs, compared to 4.72 YPC on inside runs, both near the middle of the pack. Judkins had 22 carries for 75 yards in a matchup against the Jets last week. Expecting a lot of volume here for Henderson, so I’ll take his over.

Suggested Pick:

Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

WR Stefon Diggs

Diggs is averaging 55.4 receiving yards per game, 2.37 YPC and 26% TPRR. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 22.3%. Diggs has run 55.6% of his routes out wide and 44.4% from the slot. The Jets allow the 11^th most YPRR to wide alignment (2.11) and the 14^th most to the slot (1.75). With Sauce Gardner now not with the team, number 1 options should have a better matchup against the Jets now. Jerry Jeudy caught 6 receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown against them last week, his best game of the season. The Jets have the 4^th lowest pressure rate on the season (33.3%). When Maye is not pressured, Diggs averages 3.57 YPRR, has been targeted on 37% of his routes and has a 1^st-read rate of 25%. Stefon had a 72.2% route participation rate last week with Kayshon Boutte ruled out. On the short week, Boutte is once again ruled out. Considering the Patriots are 14-point favorites and the Jets force the 4^th lowest pass rate over expected, I do not expect a ton of opportunities for Diggs. However, it’s a bullish matchup, receiving line feels correctly priced. Considering the Patriots are projected for around 28 points, I’ll take Diggs anytime TD. He’s scored in 3 straight and has a redzone target in 7 straight.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (+148)

TE Hunter Henry

Henry is averaging 37.7 receiving yards per game, 1.44 YPRR, 17% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 17.3%. The Patriots #2 WR, Kayshon Boutte, has been ruled out again, so Henry may receive a bit more attention from Maye. That was not the case last week, when Henry caught 1 of 4 targets for 9 yards against Tampa Bay. He’ll face a Jets defense that has allowed the 9^th fewest receiving yards but the 3^rd most receiving TDs to tight end. Fannin had 4 catches for 44 yards against the Jets last week, while Njoku caught 2 for 21 yards and a touchdown. The Jets have the 4^th lowest pressure rate on the season (33.3%). When Maye is not pressured, Henry averages 2.13 YPRR, has been targeted on 24% of his routes and has a 1^st-read rate of 16.5%. Considering the Patriots are 14-point favorites and the Jets force the 4^th lowest pass rate over expected, I do not expect a ton of opportunities for Henry. At +165 odds with the Patriots implied to score around 28 points in a bullish matchup, I’ll take his anytime TD.

Suggested Pick:

Under 3.5 Receptions (-125)

Anytime Touchdown (+165)

The Jets, coming off their first 2 wins of the season, will face an 8-2 Patriots team with Drake Maye as the current favorite to win MVP. The Jets are in a full rebuild, as they traded away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams at the deadline. Drake Maye and the Patriots offense should have a field day against this Jets squad. Justin Fields is expected to start and will be without their top playmaker Garrett Wilson, Fields threw for 54 total passing yards last week. The Jets were lucky to win last week as they scored 2 special teams TDs. I’m not overthinking this one.

Best Bet: Jets Under 7.5 1H Team Total (-180)
Lean: Patriots -12.5 (-110)
Game Prediction: Patriots 31 Jets 10

Anytime TD Scorer

Stefon Diggs (Patriots) +145

Diggs has scored a touchdown in 3 straight weeks and has at least 1 redzone target in 7 straight. The Jets struggle to get pressure and Diggs torches when Maye does not get pressured, averaging 3.57 YPRR and has been targeted on 37% of his routes. Patriots are projected for around 28 points; I like Maye’s top option to find the endzone.

No Team Touchdown Scorer (Jets) +400

This Jets team is an absolute disaster and were lucky last week scoring 2 special teams touchdowns. Against a stout Patriots defense, especially against the run, which is basically the only thing the Jets are decently good at, I like the value here for the Jets to not score a touchdown. Fields has the lowest passing yards total I have ever seen for an established QB (132.5).

First TD Scorer

Stefon Diggs (Patriots) +750

Same analysis as anytime, Diggs has yet to score in the 1^st quarter this season, but with the Patriots heavy 12.5-point favorites, the best time for Diggs to score is early in the game before the Patriots get run heavy if they get out to an early lead. Bullish matchup, like the price!

Parlay #1 (Jets) +641

Isaiah Davis Over 11.5 Receiving Yards
Mason Taylor Under 4.5 Receptions
Adonai Mitchell 25+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (Patriots) +625

Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown
Drake Maye Under 27.5 Pass Attempts
Treveyon Henderson 70+ Rushing Yards

Parlay #3 (Longshot) +2500

Drake Maye Under 27.5 Pass Attempts
Treveyon Henderson 80+ Rushing Yards
Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown
Adonai Mitchell 30+ Receiving Yards

QB Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota surprised me last week. Not because his team performed well; his stats were decent individually. He went 16/22 for 213 passing yards and two TDs – and that was against a difficult Detroit Lions defence. This week, he'll get a much easier matchup against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins limit opposing passing volume effectively, allowing the 15th-fewest completions (21.1) and the 7th-fewest pass attempts (28.7) per game. However, they’ve still been vulnerable to scoring plays and QB rushes, allowing the 11th most passing touchdowns (1.7) and 10th most QB rushing yards (22.9) per contest. For a dual-threat passer like Mariota, that blend of conservative coverage and occasional overpursuit could open doors both through the air and on the ground. Miami’s scheme leans on a mix of man and zone looks, with the 14th most man coverage (24.8%) and a league-high 29% rate of Cover 2. Despite a smaller sample size of just 15 dropbacks against Cover 2, Mariota's been remarkably efficient: posting the 4th highest completion rate (85.7%), the 2nd highest yards per attempt (12.93), and a stellar 118.8 QBR among 42 qualified QBs. The same can't be said for Mariota against man coverage, where he struggles to push the ball downfield. Across 34 dropbacks against man, he’s completed just 53.3% of passes for 5.1 yards per attempt, ranking near the bottom of the league. Ultimately, this matchup favours efficiency over volume, especially against this Dolphins defence, which teams mostly attack more on the ground. In his four starts this season, Mariota has gone under this pass attempt line in three of those games.

Suggested pick:

Marcus Mariota u27.5 Pass Atttempts (-105)

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Jacory Croskey-Merritt continues to show that he was just all preseason hype. To start the year, he was stuck behind Austin Ekeler, but once he went down, Croskey-Merritt hasn't run away with his opportunity. Last week, he finished with just 30 rushing yards on 11 attempts, albeit against a tough Lions defence. The Dolphins present him with a more favourable matchup, as they allow the 8th most rushing attempts (22.8) and the 6th most rushing yards (112.6) per game. They've also been generous to RBs through the air, giving up the 5th most receptions (5.0) and 6th most receiving yards (39.2) per game to the position. Miami’s defensive front has had a hard time maintaining gap integrity, especially against zone-running teams. The Dolphins run zone concept on 45.8% of their rush defence looks — one of the higher rates in the league — but that approach has backfired, as they’re allowing a massive 4.98 yards per carry in zone, the 3rd highest mark in the NFL. They haven’t fared much better against man/gap concepts, giving up 4.87 yards per carry, which still ranks in the bottom third of the league. Croskey-Merritt’s running style matches up nicely against either coverage. He’s averaged 4.43 yards per carry against zone and 4.5 against man/gap. The biggest key for Croskey-Merritt will be maintaining early-down consistency. Without Jayden Daniels, the Commanders have struggled on offence as a whole, which affects Croskey-Merritt's touches and restricts him from getting into a groove in his running game. However, this Dolphins run defence has done a lot of opposing RBs favours this season, and Croskey-Merritt might be the next beneficiary.

Suggested Pick:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 30+ Rushing Yards (-125)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 40+ Rushing Yards (+165)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 50+ Rushing Yards (+320)

WR Deebo Samuel

It wasn't as high of a volume day as we anticipated for Deebo Samuel, but he still managed to haul in four of his five targets for 29 receiving yards and a TD. With the Dolphins being a run funnel for opposing offences, that has made Miami's pass defence numbers look better than the on-field product actually suggests. Miami allows the 6th fewest receptions (9.8) and 2nd fewest receiving yards (109.6) per game to opposing wideouts. The Dolphins play a good amount of man coverage (24.8%), but rely heavily on Cover 2, running it at the highest rate in the NFL (29%). Against man coverage, Deebo has been Washington’s most trusted option, earning the highest target share (26.9%) on the team, converting that into 12 receptions on 18 targets for 96 yards across 68 routes. While his 66.7% catch rate against man looks modest, his 9.9 yards per reception and 1.93 yards per route run show that he's still efficient with the ball in his hands. Against Cover 2, Samuel has caught 5 of 6 targets for 43 yards on 29 routes. Samuel runs 62.1% of snaps from the slot. The Dolphins are targeted at the 9th lowest rate (81) against slot receivers, yet they allow the 4th highest catch rate (75.3%). That said, it might be troublesome for Deebo to produce in this matchup. Samuel relies on volume to produce as a low aDoT type of receiver. And this isn't a matchup that allows heavy volume, especially to the slot position.

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel u5.5 Receptions (-150)

WR Jaylin Lane

As we called last week, Jaylin Lane didn't need massive volume to clear his receiving yards line. Lane took his lone target 41 yards, proving he's the Commanders' best deep ball threat. But as we've covered, this isn't a matchup that likely suits his strengths. Against man coverage, Lane has quietly been one of the Commanders’ most efficient weapons. He’s caught 5 of 10 targets for 113 yards on 49 routes, leading the team in receiving yards against that look. His 21.2% target share in man situations reflects growing trust from the coaching staff when facing single coverage, and his efficiency numbers are eye-catching — 20.7 yards per reception and 2.38 yards per route run — both well above team averages. On just 20 routes vs. Cover 2, Lane has been perfect, hauling in 4 receptions on 4 targets for 61 yards, for a 15.3 yards per reception. While all these numbers look great, they are based on very small sample sizes. Lane lines up on 60.8% of his routes on the outside. The Dolphins are targeted at the 10th lowest target rate (103) to outside receivers and allow the lowest receiving yards per game (77.4) to that position group.

They've also held outside receivers to the 12th lowest catch rate (62.1%) and the 6th lowest yards per reception (12.09). That said, Lane can always break one for a long reception, and his receiving yards line of 22.5, which he has cleared in four of the last five games, is too low, even against this Miami defence.

Suggested pick:

Jaylin Lane o22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz has put together two solid weeks in a row, catching eight of his nine targets for 100 receiving yards. However, Miami has held tight ends in check for much of the year, allowing the 10th fewest receptions (5.8) and 14th fewest receiving yards (49.0) per game to the position. When facing man coverage, Ertz’s production has been limited. On 15 targets, he’s caught seven passes for 43 yards on 76 routes. He earns a 19% target share against the coverage, turning that into a modest 5.7 yards per catch and just 0.61 yards per route run. Those numbers don't exactly pop. The more intriguing matchup, however, comes against Cover 2, which Miami deploys more than any team in football. Ertz has quietly dominated that look this season. On just 33 routes, he’s caught 9 of 11 targets for 111 yards, leading all Commanders pass-catchers with a 28.9% target share when facing the coverage. With 59% of his snaps coming from the slot, he will see a similar difficult matchup to Deebo. However, Mariota has to throw to somebody, and Ertz has been his most consistent target when he's under centre. Ertz has logged four or more receptions in three straight and four of the last five games.

Suggested pick:

Zach Ertz o3.5 Receptions (-160)

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua is averaging 195.2 passing yards per game, 6.68 YPA and a 68.2% completion rate. He’s thrown 17 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He’ll face a Commanders defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 2^nd most passing yards per game. They are also dealing with multiple injuries. They lost CB Trey Amos, LB Ale Kaho and Daron Payne will not play because of suspension. Dan Quinn will take over as the defensive play caller, so any previous tendencies should be treated with less certainty. This game will be played in a dome at home, where Tua is averaging 251.6 passing yards per game in his last 10, compared to 201.9 passing yards in his last 10 away games. Since the Tyreek Hill injury, the Dolphins are passing at -2.2% rate below expectations, 6^th lowest in the league. Despite the bullish matchup, Tua’s passing yards prop is set around 235.5, which is too high for my liking. I’ll play his longest completion as the Commanders are ranked last in deep ball defense.

Suggested Pick:

Over 35.5 Yards Longest Completion (-110)

RB De’Von Achane

Achane averages 78 rushing yards per game on 5.45 YPC. He’s 2^nd amongst qualified RBs in explosive rush rate at 9.1%. Achane dominated last week, producing 225 total yards on 28 touches against the Bills. 174 of those yards were rushing, a season high. He’ll face a Commanders defense that ranks 9^th worst in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 10^th most rushing yards per game. Since week 6, the Commanders are allowing the 5^th most YPC (5.23). They have particularly struggled against man/gap concept, allowing 6.63 YPC and a 66.7% success rate the past 5 games. 37.1% of Achane’s rushes have been in man/gap, but he has been much more successful. He’s averaging 7.19 YPC in man/gap compared to 4.26 YPC in zone concept. Gibbs and Montgomery combined for 213 rushing yards against the Commanders last week. The Dolphins are 2.5-point favorites, so this should be a favorable matchup for the Dolphins to run the ball. From a receiving game perspective, Achane averages 32.5 receiving yards per game. That’s a little skewed as he had a 92 receiving yard game against the Patriots in week 2. He’ll face a Commanders defense that has allowed the 6^th most receiving yards but the 4^th fewest receptions to RB. His line is up to high 30s, this is where I stay away.

Suggested Pick:

Over 19.5 Yards Longest Rush (-105)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Prior to Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, Waddle averaged 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.75 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 25.6% 1^st-read rate. In the 6 games without Tyreek, Waddle is averaging 80.8 receiving yards per game, 3.23 YPRR, 28% TPRR and a 30.5% 1^st-read rate. Waddle has lined up out wide on 79.3% of his routes since Tyreek went down. The Commanders are allowing the 4^th most YPRR (2.38), but the 17^th most receiving yards per game (103.9) to wide alignment. They are also dealing with multiple injuries. They lost CB Trey Amos, LB Ale Kaho and Daron Payne will not play because of suspension. Dan Quinn will take over as the defensive play caller, so any previous tendencies should be treated with less certainty. This game will be played in a dome at home, where Tua is averaging 251.6 passing yards per game in his last 10, compared to 201.9 passing yards in his last 10 away games. WRs have torched this defense, including 119 yards from Jameson Williams, 129 from JSN, 93 from Rashee Rice, 110 from CeeDee Lamb and 110 from Drake London as of late.

Suggested Pick:

Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Anytime Touchdown (+110)

WR Malik Washington

In the 5 games post Tyreek Hill’s season ending injury, Washington has run a route on 61.8% of dropbacks. He’s averaging 24.2 receiving yards per game, 1.15 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He has lined up in the slot on 49.2% of his routes and out wide on 45.2%. The Commanders are allowing the most receiving yards per game to the slot (103.9) and the 17^th most to wide alignment (103.9). They are also dealing with multiple injuries. They lost CB Trey Amos, LB Ale Kaho and Daron Payne will not play because of suspension. Dan Quinn will take over as the defensive play caller, so any previous tendencies should be treated with less certainty. This game will be played in a dome at home, where Tua is averaging 251.6 passing yards per game in his last 10, compared to 201.9 passing yards in his last 10 away games. Washington has been primarily targeted near the line of scrimmage, with a 4.7 average depth of target. The Commanders are allowing the most YPRR (1.92) and the 5^th most receiving yards per game (138.9) to targets under 10 yards down field.

Suggested Pick:

Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Tanner Conner/Greg Dulcich

In week 7 with Darren Waller leaving early with an injury, Conner and Hill both ran 11 routes. Tanner caught 1 of 3 targets for 28 yards. Hill caught 1 of 2 targets for 1 yard. From weeks 1-3 prior to Waller making his debut, Conner ran a route on 53.7% of dropbacks, while Hill ran a route on just 20.4% of drop backs. In week 8, Julian Hill sat out with an injury, so Greg Dulcich received some playing time. Julian Hill looks unlikely to play this week as well. Conner had a 28.6% route participation rate, while Dulcich was at 25%. Conner caught 2 of 2 targets for 6 yards, while Dulcich did not receive a target. In week 9, Dulcich increased to a 44.2% route participation rate while Conner sat at 20.9%. Dulcich ended up having a solid outing with 5 receptions for 49 yards. In week 10, Dulcich saw his highest route participation rate of the season (76.2%) as Conner, Hill and Waller were out. He caught 1 of 4 targets for 22 yards. Julian Hill is expected to make his return after missing the past 3 weeks due to an ankle injury. He could cut into some of Dulcich’s route participation. The Commanders are allowing the 11^th most receiving yards and 8^th most receiving touchdowns to TE. This tight end group has been unpredictable since the Waller went to IR, I’m out on all TEs for the Dolphins.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

These are both pretty bad defenses specifically on the ground. Dolphins are coming off their best game of the season crushing the Bills. Also this Commanders defense has been BAD the L4 weeks allowing 44,28,38,44 points. The Dolphins looked good last week as they allowed just 13 points to the Bills but we can't see that @Home this year they have allowed 33,21,29,28,13 points. Such a tough pick'em game so give me the over and Commanders 'O' 21.5 Points

Best Bet Over 46.5 -135
Lean Commanders 'O' 21.5 Pts -130
Game Prediction Commanders 27 Dolphins 24

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Commanders): Jacory Croskey-Merritt Anytime TD (+120)

Croskey-Merritt was a scoring machine to start the season, finding the end zone four times over the first five weeks of the season. However, he's yet to find the end zone since. He'll need to do it from distance, as he hasn't had a carry inside the five since then. However, he shares a tie for the lead in red zone carries at 26.3%. The Dolphins have done well to keep opposing RBs out of the end zone, but if we're banking on Croskey-Merritt to have a good day on the ground, he will likely use his speed to turn upfield and find the end zone.

Best Bet (Dolphins): Jaylen Waddle (+105)

In 6 games without Tyreek, Waddle is averaging 80.8 receiving yards per game. He’ll face a Commanders defense that allows the 4^th most YPRR to wide alignment and they are dealing with multiple injuries. Waddle has scored in 5 of 10 games and I like him to find the end zone again this week in a bullish matchup against a crumbling Commanders team.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Commanders) Marcus Mariota First TD (+1800)

We keep suggesting Mariota first TD, but he hasn't come through for us. However, this could be the week he does it. He hasn't found the end zone since his first start of the season, but against the Dolphins, who allow the third most rushing TDs to QBs per game, the mobile QB could be the first to find paydirt.

Best Bet (Dolphins): Jaylen Waddle (+700)

Same analysis as anytime, he has yet to score a touchdown this season in the first quarter but he’s due for an early one, especially against a Commanders team that is really struggling against the pass right now and is dealing with a ton of injuries.

Parlay 1: (Commanders) +340 odds on bet365

Marcus Mariota 20+ Rushing Yards

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 30+ Rushing Yards

Zach Ertz 4+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Dolphins) +331

Jaylen Waddle 70+ Receiving Yards

Malik Washington 25+ Receiving Yards

Jaylen Waddle Anytime Touchdown

QB Joe Flacco

Through 4 games with the Bengals, Flacco is averaging 313.5 passing yards per game, 7.25 YPA and a 64.7% completion rate. He’s thrown 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’ll face a Steelers defense that ranks 16^th in EPA/Pass but has allowed the most passing yards per game (269.4). In his first matchup against the Steelers with the Bengals, he completed 31 of 47 passes for 342 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. The Steelers have blitzed at the 4^th highest rate (33.3%) but have forced pressure at the 6^th lowest rate (33.7%). Flacco has averaged 2.42 seconds to throw with the Bengals, the 3^rd fastest time amongst qualified QBs. He’s been pressured at just a 27.6% rate as a result, 3^rd lowest rate in the league. The Steelers have played single-high at the 3^rd highest rate (62.3%) and man coverage at the 5^th highest rate (37.2%). When they played H2H in week 7, the Steelers played single-high at a 57.1% rate and man coverage at a 34.7% rate. Flacco averages 7.51 YPA and a 63.8% completion rate against single-high with the Bengals. Against man coverage, he’s averaging 7.29 YPA and a 53.4% completion rate. This game has an implied total of 49 points, and the Bengals are 5.5-point underdogs, expecting a lot of passing once again for Flacco and the Bengals.

Suggested Pick:

Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-140)

3+ Passing Touchdowns (+275)

RB Chase Brown

In the first 6 weeks of the season, Chase Brown averaged 33.7 rushing yards per game on 2.73 YPC. In the past 3, he’s averaging 72.7 rushing yards per game on 6.41 YPC. Samaje Perine is expected to miss time with an ankle injury, so Brown should once again be a bell cow after Perine started cutting into his workload the past couple of weeks. Brown broke out in the receiving game in week 9, running a route on 82% of dropbacks, catching 8 of 14 targets for 75 yards against the Bears. He’ll face a Steelers defense that ranks 11^th worst in EPA/Rush and have allowed the 15^th fewest rushing yards per game. Brown rushed 11 times for 108 yards in the head-to-head matchup week 7. The Steelers are allowing the 9^th fewest YPC (3.79) and the 6^th lowest success rate (43.1%) on zone concepts. Against man/gap, they allow the 10^th most YPC (4.96) and the 9^th highest success rate (56.5%). Brown has been more effective in zone concept, averaging 4.17 YPC compared to 3.67 YPC in man/gap. From a receiving matchup, the Steelers are middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed to RB. Chase caught 2 of 4 targets for negative 8 yards in their first matchup. I lean under on Brown’s rush yards as I think this will be a negative game script this time around.

Suggested Pick:

Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

WR Ja’Marr Chase

In the 4 games since Joe Flacco has taken over at QB, Ja’Marr is averaging 114.3 receiving yards per game, 2.64 YPRR and 36% TPRR. His 1^st-read rate is 45.7%. That compares to 74.8 receiving yards per game, 2.25 YPRR and 26% TPRR in the first 5 games. Chase has lined up 61.1% of the time out wide and 37.8% from the slot. The Steelers are allowing the most receiving yards per game (141.6) and the 10^th most YPRR (2.10) to wide alignment. They are allowing the 5^th most receiving yards per game (88.3) and the 14^th most YPRR (1.77) to the slot. Chase caught 16 of 23 targets for 161 receiving yards and a touchdown in their first matchup. The Steelers have played single-high at the 3^rd highest rate (62.3%) and man coverage at the 5^th highest rate (37.2%). When they played H2H in week 7, the Steelers played single-high at a 57.1% rate and man coverage at a 34.7% rate. Chase averages 2.20 YPRR and 40% TPRR against single-high on the season compared to 2.61 YPRR and 25% TPRR against two-high. Against man, Chase averages 1.40 YPRR and 27% TPRR this season. This game has an implied total of 49 points, and the Bengals are 5.5-point underdogs, expecting a lot of passing once again for the Bengals.

Suggested Pick:

90+ Receiving Yards (-130)

WR Tee Higgins

In the first 4 games with Joe Flacco at QB, Tee Higgins is averaging 80.8 receiving yards per game, 2.20 YPRR and 18% TPRR. That compares to 31.6 receiving yards per game, 0.99 YPRR and 17% TPRR in the first 5 games. Tee has lined up out wide on 88.2% of his routes. The Steelers are allowing the most receiving yards per game (141.6) and the 10^th most YPRR (2.10) to wide alignment. Higgins caught 6 of 10 targets for 96 receiving yards and a touchdown in the first head-to-head matchup this season. The Steelers have played single-high at the 3^rd highest rate (62.3%) and man coverage at the 5^th highest rate (37.2%). When they played H2H in week 7, the Steelers played single-high at a 57.1% rate and man coverage at a 34.7% rate. Higgins averages 2.12 YPRR and 24% TPRR against single-high on the season compared to 1.24 YPRR and 14% TPRR against two-high. This game has an implied total of 49 points, and the Bengals are 5.5-point underdogs, expecting a lot of passing once again for the Bengals.

Suggested Pick:

Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

70+ Receiving Yards (+143)

80+ Receiving Yards (+210)

TE Noah Fant

Fant has ran a route on just 33.3% and 44% of drop backs the past 2 weeks as Sample and Hudson returned from injury. This reduces Fant’s upside, yet he’s still had at least 25 receiving yards in all but 1 game this season. He caught 4 of 4 targets for 44 yards and a touchdown in their head-to-head matchup in week 7. Drew Sample was the only other healthy TE in this game and Fant had a 73.5% route participation rate, his highest on the season. The Steelers are allowing the 7^th most receiving yards and 6^th most receiving touchdowns to TE. The Steelers have played single-high at the 3^rd highest rate (62.3%) and man coverage at the 5^th highest rate (37.2%). When they played H2H in week 7, the Steelers played single-high at a 57.1% rate and man coverage at a 34.7% rate. Fant is averaging 1.65 YPRR and 17% TPRR against single-high this season. That compares to 1.7 YPRR and 24% TPRR against two-high. Against man, Fant has 2 receptions for 9 yards on 33 routes.

Suggested Pick:

Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-114) *Lean

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is averaging 205.9 passing yards per game, 6.76 YPA and a 66.8% completion rate. He’s thrown 18 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’ll face a Bengals defense that ranks 2^nd worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 3^rd most passing yards per game (260.1). The Bengals blitz at the lowest rate in the NFL this season (17.5%). When not blitzed, Rodgers averages Rodgers averages 6.76 YPA and a 68.5% completion rate. The Bengals top 3 coverages are Cover 3 (34.5% frequency), Cover 6 (19.9% frequency) and Cover 1 (17.5% frequency). In their last head-to-head matchup in week 7, the Bengals ran Cover 6 at a 34.3% rate and Cover 3 at a 22.9% rate. They did not run much Cover 1. Against Cover 6 and Cover 3, Rodgers averages 6.92 YPA and a 69.4% completion rate. In that week 7 matchup, Rodgers completed 23 of 34 passes for 249 yards and 4 touchdowns. After going under in 3 straight, I like Rodgers to surpass his 224.5 passing yards line against one of the worst pass defenses in the league.

Suggested Pick:

Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-138)

RB Jaylen Warren

Warren averages 59.3 rushing yards per game on 4.19 YPC. He’s rushed for 2 rushing TDs. He’ll face a Bengals defense that ranks 2^nd worst in EPA/Rush, allowing the most rushing yards per game. 72.6% of Warren’s attempts have been in zone concept, where he’s averaging 4.56 YPC and a 54.9% success rate. That compares to 3.57 YPC and a 57.1% success rate in man/gap. The Bengals allow the most YPC (5.73) and the highest success rate (56.8%) against zone concept. In terms of the receiving game, Warren had just a 26.5% route participation rate last week to Gainwell’s 67.6% rate. This is quite puzzling as Warren averages 2.28 YPRR to Gainwell’s 0.98. If he does see more work in the receiving game, this is a bullish matchup against a Bengals defense allowing the 3^rd most receiving yards per game to RB. The Bengals primarily ran Cover 6 and Cover 3 against the Steelers in their last H2H matchup. Warren averages 2.98 YPRR against these 2 coverages. His lines are high, but for good reason as the Bengals defense has gotten torched.

Suggested Pick:

Over 99.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-113)

WR DK Metcalf

DK is averaging 55.8 receiving yards per game, 1.95 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 25.5%. He’s caught a team-high 5 touchdowns on the season. He has primarily lined up out wide, at a 79.8% rate. The Bengals are allowing the 19^th most YPRR (1.96) and surprisingly rank 12^th best in EPA/Pass to wide aligned targets. The Bengals have allowed just 1 100-yard WR this season. They bleed yards to TE and RB. The Bengals blitz at the lowest rate in the NFL this season (17.5%). When Aaron is not blitzed, DK averages 2.11 YPRR and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. DK caught 3 of 5 targets for 50 yards in their matchup earlier this season. The Bengals ran Cover 6 at a 34.3% rate and Cover 3 at a 22.9% rate in that matchup, both coverages are in their season long top 3 frequency rates. Against these 2 coverages, DK averages 2.51 YPRR and has been targeted on 28% of his routes.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

TE Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith has a 58.3% route participation rate, and averages 18.1 receiving yards per game, 0.93 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. In the week 7 matchup against the Bengals, Jonnu had a 77.1% route rate, catching 3 of 6 targets for 28 receiving yards and a touchdown. Jonnu has lined up 49.1% of the time from the slot and 33.7% from inline. The Bengals have allowed the 3^rd most receiving yards per game and the 7^th most YPRR to inline. They have allowed the most YPRR and 4^th most receiving yards per game to the slot. To tight ends in general, they are allowing the most receiving yards and 4^th most receptions. The Bengals have forced the 5^th lowest depth of target in the league (7.3 yards), but the most yards after the catch per reception (7.13). Jonnu has a 4.4 yard average depth of target (lowest on the Steelers) and 5.12 yards after the catch per reception. After being quite as of late, I’m buying low on Jonnu.

Suggested Pick:

Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

30+ Receiving Yards (+200)

40+ Receiving Yards (+400)

Anytime Touchdown (+260)

TE Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth has a 47.7% route participation rate, averages 28.9 receiving yards per game, and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. In the week 7 matchup against the Bengals, Freiermuth ran a route on 68.6% of drop backs, catching 5 of 6 targets for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns. Freiermuth has lined up all over, 59.4% of the time in the slot, 18.9% inline and 21.7% out wide. To tight ends in general, they are allowing the most receiving yards and 4^th most receptions. The Bengals have allowed the 3^rd most receiving yards per game and the 7^th most YPRR to inline. They have allowed the most YPRR and 4^th most receiving yards per game to the slot. The Bengals have forced the 5^th lowest depth of target in the league (7.3 yards), but the most yards after the catch per reception (7.13). Freiermuth has an average depth of target of 6.3 yards and averages 5.73 yards after the catch. The biggest concern with Freiermuth is playing time, but considering he has dominated this matchup over the years, I think he’ll get the looks and this is a great spot to target his receiving yards.

Suggested Pick:

Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

40+ Receiving Yards (+200)

Anytime Touchdown (+240)

Both offenses will have succcess here. Give me the over and the Steelers to win at Home

Best Bet Over 47.5 -120
Lean Steelers TT 'O' 26.5 Pts -120
Game Prediction Bengals 24 Steelers 27

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Jonnu Smith (Steelers) +250

Jonnu caught 3 of 6 targets for 28 receiving yards and a touchdown in the week 7 head-to-head matchup. The Bengals are allowing the most touchdowns to TE and force the 5^th lowest aDOT but the most yards after the catch. Jonnu has the lowest aDOT on the Steelers and most of his production comes after the catch.

Tee Higgins (Bengals) +150

Higgins has come alive with Joe Flacco as his QB after a slow start to the season. He caught 6 of 10 targets for 96 receiving yards and a touchdown in the H2H matchup week 7. All the attention will be on Chase after he torched the Steelers last game for 161 yards. Give me Tee!

First Touchdown Picks

Jonnu Smith (Steelers) +1400

Same analysis as anytime, his touchdown in the week 7 head-to-head matchup came in the 1^st quarter. Bengals have been getting torched by TEs all season.

Tee Higgins (Bengals) +900

Same analysis as anytime, he has yet to score in the 1^st quarter this season but he has 4 touchdowns in the past 3 weeks, an early one is coming. Expecting Chase to see some double teams and expect Tee to see a higher target share.

Parlay #1 (Bengals) +342

Joe Flacco Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Tee Higgins 70+ Receiving Yards
Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown

Parlay #2 (Steelers) +625

Jonnu Smith 30+ Receiving Yards
Jonnu Smith Anytime Touchdown
Jaylen Warren 90+ Rush + Receiving Yards

Parlay #3 (Longshot) +2118

Jonnu Smith 30+ Receiving Yards
Jonnu Smith Anytime Touchdown
Tee Higgins 70+ Receiving Yards
Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown

QB Justin Herbert

Herbert comes into Week 11 after a quiet showing versus Pittsburgh, completing 20 of 33 passes for 220 yards and one touchdown. The Jaguars’ defense plays a heavy dose of Cover 3 (31.2%) and Cover 6 (21.5%), and Herbert has excelled against those looks — averaging 8.1 yards per attempt with a +9.7% completion percentage over expected and solid mobility (11 rushes, 99 yards) when facing them this season. Jacksonville’s defense has struggled to pressure the passer consistently, ranking 24th in pressure rate (18.5%) over the past month, while allowing multiple passing TDs in four of their last six games. With his protection improving and route timing sharp with McConkey and Johnston, Herbert should be able to pick apart the intermediate zones and push the ball downfield when the safeties rotate.

Suggested Play:
'O' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-158)

RB Kimani Vidal

Vidal rebounded last week with a strong 25-carry, 95-yard, one-touchdown performance, commanding 94% of snaps and 81% of the team’s carries. The Jaguars’ run defense has been stout, allowing just 71.7 rushing yards per game (3rd fewest), but they’ve been far more vulnerable through the air — giving up 40.7 receiving yards per game (5th most) to running backs. Vidal’s 50% route participation suggests he’ll see volume on screens and dump-offs, especially against Jacksonville’s Cover 6 shells where linebackers drop deep and leave space underneath. His red-zone usage has also been consistent, handling 83% of RB touches inside the 10.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+100)

WR Ladd McConkey

McConkey is emerging as Herbert’s most reliable option, coming off a 4-catch, 107-yard, 1-TD outing on six targets. Against zone coverages (Cover 3 and 6 combined), he’s averaging 1.47 yards per route run with a 16% target rate, thriving on quick-breaking routes from the slot. The Jaguars rank 8th-fewest receiving yards allowed to slot receivers (56.8 per game), but their nickel corners have struggled to contain route precision and motion usage — exactly where McConkey wins. Expect Herbert to lean on him early on third downs and scripted drives.

Suggested Play:
'O' 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Quentin Johnston

Johnston saw eight targets last week, catching five for 42 yards with an 88% route share. While the yardage hasn’t been explosive lately, the Jaguars’ secondary could change that. Jacksonville has surrendered 134.1 receiving yards per game (3rd most) to perimeter WRs and allows a hefty 13.3 yards per reception in those alignments. Johnston owns a 24% target share over the last two games, and with McConkey drawing attention inside, he should see several vertical looks off play-action. If Herbert gets time in the pocket, one of those deep shots could connect.

Suggested Play:
'O' 21.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

TE Oronde Gadsden

Gadsden left Week 10 with a quad bruise but is trending toward playing. Prior to the injury, he had four straight games with at least five receptions and 68+ yards. The Jaguars’ defense has been soft against tight ends, giving up 72.6 receiving yards per game (3rd most) and 6.9 receptions per game (2nd most) to the position. Against zone coverage, Gadsden ranks among the most efficient TEs with 3.04 yards per route run and a 23% target rate, thriving in seams and underneath crossers. Assuming he’s active, he’s well-positioned for a bounce-back performance.

Suggested Play:
'O' 3.5 Receptions (+120)

QB Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence enters this matchup riding an inconsistent season with a 59.5% completion rate for 1,998 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He’s also run a good bit with 172 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Last week, he threw for 158 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, adding 35 rushing yards. Lawrence has been much better playing against man coverage over zone, with the fifth-largest grading differential between the two schemes. Unfortunately, the Chargers run zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate (78.2%), primarily Cover 3 and Cover 4. The Chargers' pass defense has been good, allowing the fourth-lowest completion rate (59.7%), third-lowest yards per attempt (6.3), and third-lowest touchdown rate (2.9%). Lawrence's struggles are, in part, due to his receivers boasting a league-high 10.8% drop rate. Trevor is ranked 29th in first down and touchdown percentage (29.1%), holds a league-low red zone passer rating (72.2%), and is ranked 31st in red zone completion rate (48.6%). He has thrown an interception in each of his last two games, and I think we could see another one in this matchup. While his passing yardage prop strikes me as a little low, the absence of Brian Thomas Jr. and the tough Chargers defense make it difficult to back.. 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (-130)

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
Travis Etienne Jr. finally gets a favorable matchup this week after a few challenging omes. He maintained complete control of the backfield last week, handling 75% of the touches with 16 carries for 58 yards and two catches for 19 yards. For the season, Etienne has 135 carries for 656 yards (4.9 YPC) and two touchdowns, along with 21 receptions for 130 yards and one receiving touchdown. His advanced metrics include 2.41 yards after contact per attempt, which ranks him 14th among running backs with at least 80 carries. The Chargers' run defense is vulnerable, allowing the fifth-most yards after contact per carry, the fifth-highest yards per carry to running backs (4.9), a first down or touchdown on 27.2% of those runs (4th), and a 58.6% success rate (11th). This looks like a prime "get right" spot for Etienne, who has failed to clear 60 rushing yards in four of his last five games. The Jaguars will likely lean heavily on the run game to compete with the Chargers' offense. I’ll finally back him after fading him the last couple of weeks.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Parker Washington
Parker Washington is expected to step up as the Jaguars' de facto WR1 once again, with Brian Thomas Jr. likely to miss another game. He's coming off a solid performance last week with three catches for 41 yards and a touchdown on seven targets, and also returned a punt for another touchdown. Washington has shown increasing target share in recent weeks, with a season-high 30.4% last Sunday and 27.3% in Week 9. For the season, he has 28 receptions for 330 yards and two touchdowns on 51 targets (54.9% catch rate). Washington operates from both out wide (56.0%) and the slot (43.6%). The Chargers' defense is less generous to outside receivers, allowing 7.0 yards per target (29th) with a low 1.7% touchdown rate (29th). In the slot, they allow 7.0 yards per target (20th) and a 5.4% touchdown rate (12th). While he might concede some slot work to Jakobi Meyers as Meyers integrates into the offense, Washington's overall volume and proven ability to produce makes me want to back him again here. Of course, let’s make sure BTJ is officially ruled out before we click submit.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Jakobi Meyers
Jakobi Meyers is still integrating into the Jaguars' offense after his trade from the Raiders. Last week, he had three catches for 41 yards on three targets. For the season, he has 36 receptions for 393 yards on 52 targets (69.2% catch rate) with no touchdowns. Meyers primarily played out wide (60.0%) last week, which was less slot work than anticipated. His slot usage is expected to increase over time, especially when Brian Thomas Jr. returns. The Chargers' defense is tough against slot receivers, allowing the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to the slot (55.9) and the 14th-lowest yards per reception (10.35). However, they do allow the eighth-highest yards after the catch per reception (5.35) to the slot. Even with BTJ likely sidelined, it's hard to be optimistic about Meyers' production this week as he continues to find his footing in a new system against a strong Chargers secondary. I don’t love fading him here, but I like it better than backing him in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - LEAN

TE Johnny Mundt
Both Hunter Long and Brenton Strange have been ruled out this week, which means 3rd stringer Johnny Mundt likely steps into the primary tight end role. Strange’s 21-day window to be activated off or IR has begun, but it won’t be this week. I have no interest in Mundt here and neither do the books to this point (no lines listed outside of touchdown odds). If you want to take a shot at a TD, fine, but I’m steering clear of this and hopefully we get both Strange and Long back next week!

Suggested Picks
PASS

I'm not a fan of this Jags team at all. Chargers receivers were full practice and should be good to go. Chargers win a big game on the road

Best Bet Chargers -2.5 -115
Lean Over 43.5 -115
Game Prediction Chargers 24 Jaguars 20

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Chargers): Kimani Vidal +100

Vidal rebounded last week with a strong 25-carry, 95-yard, one-touchdown performance, commanding 94% of snaps and 81% of the team’s carries. The Jaguars’ run defense has been stout, allowing just 71.7 rushing yards per game (3rd fewest), but they’ve been far more vulnerable through the air — giving up 40.7 receiving yards per game (5th most) to running backs. Vidal’s 50% route participation suggests he’ll see volume on screens and dump-offs, especially against Jacksonville’s Cover 6 shells where linebackers drop deep and leave space underneath. His red-zone usage has also been consistent, handling 83% of RB touches inside the 10.

Best Bet (Jaguars): Travis Etienne +115
I've been waiting for a good matchup to back Etienne and it has finally arrived! LAC is much more suceptible to the run than the pass this season. The Chargers' run defense is allowing the fifth-most yards after contact per carry, the fifth-highest yards per carry to running backs (4.9), a first down or touchdown on 27.2% of those runs (4th), and a 58.6% success rate (11th). As the clear #1 in this backfield, I like Etienne to score after grabbing his first touchdown in the last 5 weeks vs the Texans.

First TD Scorer

Longshot (Chargers): Ladd McConkey +735

McConkey has quickly become Justin Herbert’s go-to option in key situations. Over the last four games, he’s averaging 7.2 targets, 71.5 receiving yards, and has commanded a 26% first-read share in the red zone. The Chargers love using him on motion and jet shifts early in drives — a tendency that’s led to him seeing three red-zone targets on opening possessions since Week 6. Jacksonville’s secondary struggles with communication early in games, especially in Cover 3 rotations, allowing four first-drive touchdowns through the air this season. McConkey’s blend of route precision and quick acceleration makes him a nightmare on short-field slants and whip routes, which are staples of Kellen Moore’s early-game playbook. With the Jaguars likely bracketing Johnston on the boundary and crowding Vidal in the box, McConkey should have favorable leverage inside the 10-yard line.

Longshot (Jaguars): Jakobi Meyers +1300
Even in limited work last week, Meyers scored a touchdown that got called back thanks to an offensive penalty. He should be more integrated this week and although a tough matchup overall, LAC has been more suceptible to WR production out of the slot, where Meyers likes to run out of.

 Parlay #1 (Giants) +580

Kimani Vidal ATD

Ladd McConkey 'O' 64.5 Receiving Yards

Quentin Johnston 'O' 21.5 Longest Reception

Parlay #2 (Jaguars) +493

Travis Etienne TD

Travis Etienne 80+ Rush Yards

Trevor Lawrence Under 1.5 Pass TD

QB Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield completed 28 of 43 passes for 273 yards (6.3 YPA) and 3 TDs in last week's 28-25 loss @ New England. After reaching 13+ rushing yards in each of his first 6 games in '25, the Bucs starting QB has failed to post a single carry in his last 3 consecutive games. After facing a tough New England team in Foxboro, Baker will now have to right the ship on the road in Buffalo, which will be a tall mountain to climb. There is one prop that I think has real value in this game for Baker Mayfield, and that is for him to throw over 1.5 passing TDs. While this is a tough matchup on paper, there are holes to exploit which also happen to be big strengths for Mayfield. Buffalo is very stingy in the secondary, but without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan, we haven't seen Baker air it out much, which allows Baker to make safer passes. But one big area I like is that the Bills run Cover-3 for nearly one-third of its defensive snaps, and the Buccaneers QB is at his best when he's facing zone coverage. In this scheme, the field is split into three deep zones with two corners and a deep safety over the middle. This gives Mayfield all kinds of opportunities to hit underneath and intermediate routes, particularly in the play-action game. BUF also does not have an elite pass rush, and this should allow Baker to have more time to throw. The other big part to this is the Bills rush defense is atrocious and Sean Tucker has fresh legs and should help Tampa move the ball down the field. Mayfield has been exceptional when he gets inside the opponents 20-yard line, and he loves to throw the ball in these situations. Now, Buffalo has only allowed 9 total pass TD's this season, but this is a team who has had the luxury of facing Tua Tagovailoa x2, Tyrod Taylor, Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young and Michael Penix for 6 of their 9 games. TB is also a 5.5 underdog in a game with set total of 46.5 points, so this should lead to a pass-heavy script for Baker Mayfield in the latter stages of the game. The BuTaking all of this into account, we are expecting a Bills pass defense to see some negative regression as it relates to opposing QB touchdowns thrown. The Bucs are also coming off a tough loss in New England, and they haven't lost 2 games in a row all season. Baker and an increasingly healthier o-line will be hungry this Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Baker Mayfield o1.5 Pass TDs (+134)

RB Sean Tucker

Over the past 2 weeks, Sean Tucker (21-94-1) has outrushed Rachaad White (23-73-0) by 21 yards on 2 less carries. Despite White playing 50 snaps to Tucker's 22 in week 10, word out of Tampa is the 3rd year RB out of Syracuse is expected to see a much larger role in the running game on Sunday against a Buffalo run defense that has struggled all year in stopping the run. At the midway point of the season, the Bills are allowing the 6th most rushing YPG (117.2) to opposing RBs. Tucker has been far more efficient on the ground in comparison to White in '25, so it came as no surprise when the news broke that Tucker would be getting an increased workload out of the backfield in week 11. Sean Tucker is not your typical 3rd string RB. He's just not been given enough opportunities, especially when a healthy Bucky Irving is on the field. The fact of the matter is when Tucker sees the field he becomes a major asset for the Bucs offense. He had just 50 carries in all of '24, but in the only game where he saw double-digit carries, Tucker turned 14 carries into 136 yards and a TD. He totaled 308 yards last season, but most impressive was 6.2 YPC. Over the past 2 games he has cemented himself as the best option between him and fellow teammate Rachaad White. White is solid out of the pass-catching game, but on the ground he has a 39% success rate, while averaging just 3.2 YPC. On the contrary, Tucker boasts a 47.6% success rate on 4.5 YPC. Most impressive, is that Tucker has the ability to break off chunks of yardage. In the last 2 weeks he's had 4 runs of 10 yards or more, whereas White has none. I'm expecting anywhere from 12-15 carries out of Tucker this Sunday, and his total rushing yards line of 41.5 is egregious in my opinion. Even if the Bucs are playing from behind in this game, Tucker is as good of an offensive weapon as anyone to provide Tampa Bay's offense with a big play. 

Suggested Bet:

Sean Tucker o41.5 Rush Yards (-113)
Sean Tucker 50+ ALT Rush Yards (+143)
Sean Tucker 60+ ALT Rush Yards (+248)

WR Emeka Egbuka

Emeka Egbuka caught 6 of a team high 13 targets for 115 yards and a TD last Sunday against the Patriots. He continues to put up impressive numbers as a rookie in Tampa's offense, and the majority of this has come without having the luxury of Mike Evans on the field as a decoy. He leads all rookies in receiving YPG, ranks 2nd behind only Puka Nacua in YPRR and maintains a better 1D/RR than Jamar Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jaylen Waddle. Let that sink in for just a minute. In the last 3 games alone, Baker Mayfield has targeted Egbuka 34 times. There's no doubt the Bills pose a formidable pass defense, but nothing can take the place of volume and usage, two areas that Emeka has a monopoly on right now for the Buccaneers. And Buffalo's success against the pass comes is a bit jaded when you consider just how weak their schedule has been. The fact of the matter is they have allowed WR1 scoring weeks in 5 consecutive games now to a list that includes Stefon Diggs (10-146-1), Drake London (10-158-1), Tetairoa McMillan (7-99-0), Rashee Rice (4-80-0) and Jaylen Waddle (5-84-1). Like Baker Mayfield, Egbuka should also benefit greatly from facing a ton of zone coverage. Outside of the obvious talent factor in the list of above receivers, the main common denominator between these WRs is they all have tremendous speed and can make big plays out in the open field. Win or lose, Emeka Egbuka should be in for another productive week.

Suggested Bet:

Emeka Egbuka o56.5 Rec Yards (-114)

WR Tez Johnson

Tez Johnson has filled in quite nicely for the missing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Over his last five games, Tez has 18 catches for 247 yards and 4 TDs on 27 targets. In addition, he's recorded at least 4+ receptions and 43+ receiving yards in five straight games. On Sunday, he will face a Buffalo defense who is giving up the 7th most YPT (9.4) and the 14th most YPR (13.8) to receivers aligned out wide. I still have some reservations here, because I think we're to see Tampa Bay run the ball more with Sean Tucker this week, and we know Mayfield's primary receiving targets are going to be Emeka Egbuka and Cade Otton. When you throw in Rachaad White's pass-catching ability this gives me cause for concern. Still, Tez Johnson can break off a big play at anytime, so that's what I'm targeting for him in Orchard Park on Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Tez Johnson o17.5 Longest Reception (-125)

TE Cade Otton

Cade Otton hauled in 9 of 12 targets for 82 yards last week, and over his last 5 games, the Bucs TE has amased 319 yards on 29 receptions, but we're still waiting on him to find the end zone. He faces arguably, the most difficult matchup he's had all season in week 11 at Buffalo. The Bills were a top-10 defense against the tight end position last season, but they've upped the ante even more this year. So far in '25, BUF leads all NFL teams in fewest TPG (3.7), fewest receptions per game (2.6) and fewest receiving YPG (26.9) to oppposing TEs. Otton has been extremely consistent, but the Bills have been in another league against the TE position this season, and they've already held notable players like Mark Andrews (1-5-0), Juwan Johnson (3-28-0), Hunter Henry (2-46-0) and Kyle Pitts (3-18-0) in check this season.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen and the Bills are coming off a demoralizing 13-30 loss to the Dolphins. They’ll try to bounce back against the Bucs back at home. Allen is averaging 237.7 passing yards per game, 8.13 YPA and a 70.3% completion rate. He’s thrown 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’ll face a Tampa Bay defense that has the 12^th best EPA/Pass but has allowed the 9^th most passing yards per game (233.2). The Bucs blitz at the 6^th highest rate (31.8%) and have the 4^th highest pressure rate (43.3%). Josh Allen averages 8.64 YPA, a 63% completion rate and a 96.7 QB rating against the blitz. That compares to 7.91 YPA, a 73.6% completion rate and a 109.7 QB rating when not blitzed. Allen will be without Dalton Kincaid. The last time Kincaid missed in week 6, Allen threw for 180 passing yards for 6.92 YPA and a 57.7% completion rate against Atlanta. The Bucs have allowed the 2^nd most YPA against play action (9.88) but have played against play action at the 5^th lowest rate (72 drop backs). Allen averages 8.38 YPA, a 79.4% completion rate and a 122.8 QB rating in play action. The last time he played against a defense that struggles against play action (Chiefs), he completed 23 of 26 attempts for 273 yards. Considering the Bucs force the 4^th highest pass rate over expected, I like Allen to get back on track in the passing game.

Suggested Pick:

Over 213.5 Passing Yards (-112)

250+ Passing Yards (+215)

275+ Passing Yards (+410)

RB James Cook

James Cook averages 102.2 rushing yards per game on 5.54 YPC. He’s rushed for 7 touchdowns. He’ll face a Bucs defense that ranks 6^th best in EPA/Rush, allowing the 11^th fewest rushing yards per game and has forced the 2^nd highest stuff rate (21.6%).  The Bucs force the 4^th highest pass rate over expected, so Cook may be limited in volume. Cook has around a 50-50 split between zone and man/gap concept runs. He averages 5.96 YPC and a 64.2% success rate in zone concept, compared to 5.13 YPC and a 56% success rate in man/gap concepts. The Bucs have allowed the lowest success rate (31.5%) to man/gap concept and the 7^th lowest success rate (43.2%) against zone concept. The Bucs 1 weakness in the run game has been their susceptibility to explosive runs. Treveyon Henderson had a 69-yard rush last week, Gibbs had a 78 yarder the week before, and Walker had a 31 yarder the week prior. Cook doesn’t have the highest explosive run rate, but he’s more than capable of breaking one, with a 5.4% explosive run rate with 243 explosive yards on the season (6^th most). Cook’s involvement in the passing game has been volatile, he caught 5 receptions for 24 yards last week against Miami but had just 11 total receiving yards in the prior 4 weeks. The Bucs are allowing the most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs, but it’s hard to trust Cook’s role here despite a bullish matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Over 14.5 Yards Longest Rush (-130)

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir is averaging 50.8 receiving yards per game, 1.98 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. He’ll face a Tampa Bay defense that has the 12^th best EPA/Pass but has allowed the 9^th most receiving yards per game (233.2). The Bucs force the 4^th highest pass rate over expected, I like Allen to get back on track in the passing game and Shakir to be a big part of that. Kincaid has been ruled out. In the prior 4 games without Kincaid, Shakir has 12, 7, 8 and 5 targets. Shakir has lined up in the slot on 71.4% of his routes. The Bucs are allowing the 19^th most receiving yards per game to the slot (65.4). The Bucs blitz at the 6^th highest rate (31.8%) and have the 4^th highest pressure rate (43.3%). When Allen is blitzed, Shakir averages 2.48 YPRR and 22% TPRR. Kincaid averages 3.44 YPRR and 28% TPRR against the blitz, so with him out, Allen may look at Shakir more as a safety net. Shakir’s top 3 routes in terms of targets per game are screens, slants and shallow crosses. The Bucs have allowed the 6^th most receptions per game to those 3 route types (5.89).

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (-112)

6+ Receptions (+175)

WR Keon Coleman

Coleman averages 36.7 receiving yards per game (36.7), 1.47 YPRR and 21 % TPRR. He’ll face a Tampa Bay defense that has the 12^th best EPA/Pass but has allowed the 9^th most receiving yards per game (233.2). The Bucs force the 4^th highest pass rate over expected, so I like Allen to see more drop backs on the margin. Coleman has lined up out wide on 83.5% of his routes. The Bucs are allowing the 16^th most YPRR (1.98) and the 5^th most yards per game (121.2) to wide alignment. The Bucs blitz at the 6^th highest rate (31.8%) and have the 4^th highest pressure rate (43.3%). When blitzed, Coleman averages 1.46 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. The Bucs have allowed the 2^nd most YPA against play action (9.88) but have played against play action at the 5^th lowest rate (72 drop backs). Coleman is 2^nd on the Bills in receiving on play action, averaging 2.60 YPRR and 25% TPRR. Their number 1 option on play action, Kincaid, has been ruled out with an injury. Coleman remains a boom or bust option.

Suggested Pick:

Keon Coleman Over 17.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110)

TE Dawson Knox

Knox has been on the field for 75.4% of drop backs with Kincaid off the field this season. He ran a route on 50% of drop backs in week 6 when Kincaid was last ruled out. Knox had 4 receptoins for 37 yards last week. In the past 5 games without Kincaid, Knox has been boom or bust, averaging 27.4 receiving yards per game. He’ll face a Tampa Bay defense that has the 12^th best EPA/Pass but has allowed the 9^th most receiving yards per game (233.2). They have been tough against opposing TEs, allowing the 8^th fewest receiving yards per game. Knox lined up inline on 66.7% of his routes in week 6 when Kincaid missed. The Bucs are allowing the 5^th fewest YPRR (1.46) and 12^th fewest receiving yards per game (23.3) to this alignment. I’ll pass on Knox as he’s been inconsistent even when Kincaid is off the field.

Suggested Pick

Pass

When Josh Allen is coming off a loss and playing at home the next game he is 8-0 winning by 10,34,26,6,5,28,26,25. Not only that but we are expecting some major wind in this one and last year Josh Allen played in 2 games with wind at 15+ Mph and in those games they dominated scoring 30 & 40 points.

Best Bet Bills -5.5 -110
Lean Over 47.5 -120
Game Prediction Bucs 17 Bills 31

Anytime Touchdown Picks

James Cook (Bills) -145

Cook hasn’t scored a touchdown in 2 weeks. He has 9 touchdowns on the season, he’s due. The Bucs are good against the run, but they still have allowed the 7^th most rushing touchdowns to RB. Expecting this offense to come alive, Cook will be apart of it!

First Touchdown Picks

James Cook (Bills) +425

Same analysis as anytime touchdown, he’s had 2 first quarter touchdowns this season and I expect this offense to try to establish the run early, even though the Bucs are solid against it.

Parlay #1 (Buccaneers) +440

Baker Mayfield 2+ Pass TD

Sean Tucker 40+ Rush Yards

Emeka Egbuka 50+ Rec Yards

Parlay #2 (Bills) +599

Khalil Shakir 6+ Receptions

Josh Allen 225+ Passing Yards

James Cook Anytime Touchdown

QB Caleb Williams

It may not have been pretty, but Caleb Williams and the Bears walked away with a 24-20 victory, with Williams going 20/36 for 220 passing yards and a TD, adding 63 rushing yards on the ground. This week, he gets a much more difficult Vikings defence, which doesn't allow much volume through the air. Minnesota holds opponents to the 8th fewest completions (18.8) and 5th fewest pass attempts (28.0) per game. That holds true with their production allowed, giving up 209.8 passing yards and 1.6 passing TDs per game, both ranking in the bottom half of the league. Minnesota runs about league-average in both man and zone coverage. However, they run both Cover 0 (6.5%) and Cover 2 (26.5%) at the 2nd-highest rate in the league. Against Cover 0, Williams has actually been impressive and has one of the largest sample sizes (5th most dropbacks) in the NFL. He’s completing 50% of his passes — a number that seems low on the surface but is more than fine considering the heavy pressure he's facing. More importantly, he generates explosive answers to the blitz with the 7th highest yards per attempt (7.36) and an elite 114 QBR. Cover 2, however, is where Minnesota may stump Williams. He's struggled against the look, facing 39 dropbacks and posting an 8th lowest completion percentage (66.7%), 6th lowest passing yards per game (20.2), and 3rd lowest yards per attempt (5.06) of qualified QBs. That's resulted in a poor 76.4 QBR against the coverage. One area in which Williams could exploit this Vikings defence is with his legs. The Vikings rank in the middle of the pack in terms of QB rushing yards allowed (17.9), and Williams has been using his legs to his advantage this season. On 13 rush attempts over the last two weeks, Williams has rushed for 116 yards. He also had success against the Vikings in Week 1, rushing for 58 yards. Expect more of the same from Williams this week.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams o23.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB D'Andre Swift

There were some questions regarding the Bears backfield after Kyle Monangai exploded without D'Andre Swift against the Cincinnati Bengals. However, we saw the pendulum swing back in Swift's favour when he returned last week, seeing 60.9% of the snaps compared to 39.1% for Monangai. So we will continue to operate as if Swift is the starter. This week, he faces a Vikings defence that allows the 3rd most rush attempts (25.4) and the 11th most rushing yards (103.7) per game. While this looks like a favourable matchup for Swift, he struggled against this same defence in Week 1, rushing for just 53 yards on 17 attempts. Minnesota’s run defence operates with one of the highest rates of man/gap run fits (54.3%, 3rd most) and one of the lowest rates of zone run fits (33.5% 3rd fewest). And their splits are so lopsided for good reason, as they allow 3.47 yards per carry against man/gap (2nd lowest in the NFL), and a 4.34 yards per carry against zone concept (11th highest in the NFL). But likely for Swift, he performs better against man/gap (5.26 yards per carry) than he does against zone concept (4.53 yards per carry). Swift can also be utilized in the passing game, but that won't be the key to his success this week, as the Vikings allow the 8th fewest RB receptions (3.9) and the 4th fewest RB receiving yards (21.8) to RBs per game.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift 50+ Rushing Yards (-155)

WR DJ Moore

What a stinker from DJ Moore last week. He wasn't able to corral any of his three targets, finishing with zero receptions for the first time since Week 14 of the 2022 season when he was a member of the Carolina Panthers. Despite the down season, he's still a premier WR in this league, but it might not be the greatest matchup for a bounce-back. The Vikings defence allows the fewest receptions per game (9.1) and the 11th fewest receiving yards (121.3). With Minnesota running league-average man and zone coverage, we'll have to focus on the individual Cover 0 and Cover 2 schemes they run at top-2 rates in the league – but it's not pretty. Against Cover 0, Moore has just one reception for 26 yards on three targets across 12 routes. Against Cover 2, where he shares the lead of 15.4% target share with Rome Odunze, Moore has four receptions for 36 yards on six targets across 31 routes. While there isn't an advantage to look into based on zone/man coverages, it should be noted that the Vikings still run 71.8% of their defensive snaps in zone, which doesn't favour Moore. He sees a slightly higher target share (15.6 percent), higher yards per reception (13.6), and far better yards after the catch per reception (8.0) when facing man. The only bright spot for Moore when facing zone is that he has a higher catch rate and yards per route run. Alignment-wise, Moore plays 63.5 percent of his snaps out wide. The Vikings are targeted at the lowest rate in the NFL on outside routes (83). However, when teams do challenge Minnesota outside, they're efficient, allowing the 6th highest catch rate (67.5%) and the highest yards per reception in the NFL (16.3) to perimeter receivers. There aren't many positives going for Moore this week, and the fact he ran the lowest amount of snaps last week (60.9%), and rookie Luther Burden ran the most of his career (50%), could indicate a changing of the guard opposite of Odunze.

Suggested pick:

Pass

WR Rome Odunze

Well, we called the Odunze bounce-back game last week! Odunze caught six of his 10 targets for 86 receiving yards and found the end zone for the first time since Week 4. It's going to be difficult for Odunze to replicate in this matchup, but he is operating as this team's No. 1, so he will still be able to find his. Against Cover 0, Odunze has caught two of his three targets for three receiving yards on 13 routes – not a large sample size. Cover 2 has been a bit more productive scenario for Odunze, catching three passes of his six targets for 66 yards over 33 routes. But as mentioned, his 15.4% target share leads the team with DJ Moore. Odunze’s ceiling is highest against man-heavy teams. In these one-on-one situations, his target share jumps to 26.8%, and his efficiency follows with a 68.4% catch rate, 13.1 yards per reception, 3.6 yards after catch per reception, and 2.39 yards per route run. Odunze spends most of his routes playing out wide (59.4%), but does see a significant amount of his snaps in the slot (40.4%) as well. The Vikings have done a good job at limiting slot receivers, ranking 7th fewest in targets, 16th lowest in slot catch rate at 71.3%, and 9th fewest in yards per reception at 9.8. Despite the minimal volume on the season as a whole, Odunze had success against the Vikings in Week 1, catching six of his eight targets but for just 36 receiving yards. Expect more volume from him this week, especially with Moore trending down and as Williams continues to start trusting Burden.

Suggested pick:

Rome Odunze 4.5 Receptions (+105)

TE Colston Loveland

It was great seeing Colston Loveland breakout against the Bengals, but was he going to be able to do that with Cole Kmet in the lineup? Well, we got to see that tested last week, and we have our answer. Loveland caught all four of his targets for 58 receiving yards, running 60% of the snaps. Against the Vikings in Week 1, Loveland caught both of his targets for 12 receiving yards, but only saw 5.7% of the target share – that has now changed with his increased role. The Vikings allow the 12th most receptions (5.8) and receiving yards (55.7) to opposing TEs per game. Coverage-wise, it's not that pretty considering the rookie has been getting used to NFL offences all season. Loveland is still without a target on 17 of his routes against Cover 0. His numbers against Cover 2 are a bit more inspiring, catching all three of his targets for 21 receiving yards on 22 routes. Loveland lines up inline on 45.4% of his routes. Against inline receivers, Minnesota is targeted at the 14th lowest rate in the league and allows the 13th lowest yards per reception at 9.32. However, they do allow an 82.4% catch rate, the 11th highest in the NFL. As his snaps continue to increase, so should his production and chemistry with his QB. However, the books haven't caught up with that narrative, as his line of 2.5 is one that he has cleared in four straight weeks.

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland o2.5 Receptions (-150)

QB JJ McCarthy

JJ McCarthy set career highs in completions (20), passing attempts (42) and passing yards (248) against the Baltimore Ravens last week. That was all for not as the Vikings lost the contest 27-19. This week, he'll get a familiar foe in the Chicago Bears, whom he led a fantastic fourth-quarter comeback against in his NFL debut, going 13/20 for 143 passing yards, two TDs and an interception. He also added 25 rushing yards and a score on the ground. Chicago allows the 16th most completions per game (21.4), yet faces the 12th fewest pass attempts (30.8). While the volume is low, the production is high, allowing the 9th most passing yards (252.6) and the 3rd most passing touchdowns per game (2.2). Chicago runs the 9th most man coverage in the NFL (29.7%) and the 4th most Cover 2 (23.3%), and Cover 2 man (6.1%). Against man coverage, McCarthy has been both explosive and inefficient. He’s faced 48 dropbacks and owns the 8th lowest completion percentage in the league at 52.5%. However, that inaccuracy hasn’t prevented him from producing the 2nd most passing yards per game (79.8) and the 8th highest yards per attempt (7.98) in that same sample. Against Cover 2, he has seen only 16 dropbacks, and the results have been rough, averaging the 2nd lowest completion percentage (53.8%), throwing for just 6.2 yards per attempt. Against Cover 2 man, McCarthy has completed all five of his attempts, averaging 11.8 yards per attempt, and a near-perfect 155.4 QBR. While last week was a career high in multiple passing stats for McCarthy, his 47.6% completion percentage is not something to ignore. We could almost guarantee Kevin O'Connell wants to take the ball out of McCarthy's hands and trust more in his running game, rather than his first-year QB.

Suggested pick:

JJ McCarthy u31.5 Pass Attempts (-125)

RB Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones suited up after being questionable heading into the week, and he was not limited at all. Jones handled 72.1% of the RB snaps – the most of his season – to Mason's 23%. So we will operate with Jones as the starter. This week, he'll face the Bears' defence, which allows the 13th fewest rush attempts (20.7), the 12th most rushing yards (101.7) per game on the ground. Chicago runs zone concepts on 52.3% of snaps, the 6th highest rate in the league, and plays man/gap at just 34%, one of the lowest rates in the NFL. They allow 4.61 yards per carry against zone (5th highest in the league) and an even worse 5.05 yards per carry against man/gap (9th highest). Despite an upsetting 3.5 yards per carry against zone concepts this season, he has absolutely torched man/gap, averaging 6.0 yards per carry, one of the better figures among backs with similar usage. Jones could also torment the Bears through the air, as they allow the 13th most receiving yards to running backs (31.9 per game), although they limit RB receptions to the 12th fewest league-wide (4.2 per game). Indicating that RBs have had success turning their few catches into chunk plays. Jones struggled on the ground against the Bears in Week 1, rushing for just 23 yards on eight attempts. However, he had a successful game through the air, turning his three receptions into 44 receiving yards. We should see more of that for the clear receiving back for the Vikings this week. He has gone over 20 receiving yards in two straight games.

Suggested Pick:

Aaron Jones o19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Justin Jefferson

I'm starting to worry a bit about Justin Jefferson. The volume is still there for him, as he saw 12 targets last week, but how quality were those targets? He caught only four of them and turned that into 37 receiving yards. We're used to seeing Jefferson pop off when he sees 12 targets. And that's no fault of his own; that's more on his QB. This week, he'll get the Bears defence, who allow the 12th fewest receptions (10.6), yet give up the 7th most receiving yards (160) per game to opposing WRs. Against man coverage, Jefferson sees the highest target share (30.4%) on the Vikings, turning that into 14 receptions on 28 targets for 163 receiving yards on 102 routes. His volume is elite, but as we mentioned, there's only so much he can do if those targets aren't the easiest to bring in. Considering Chicago runs the 4th most Cover 2 (23.3%) and the most Cover 2 man (6.1%) in the NFL, Jefferson might have a glimmer of hope as he has been outstanding against both looks. He leads Minnesota in target share against Cover 2 at 26.5%, turning nine targets into seven receptions and 145 yards on 41 routes — a massive 20.7 yards per catch. Cover 2 man is a small sample size, but still encouraging, catching all three of his targets for 44 receiving yards on 20 routes. Jefferson plays 72.7% of his snaps out wide. Chicago's targeted at the 5th lowest rate (99), but when receivers do corral the pass, they make them pay. The Bears surrender the 4th highest yards per reception (15.03). We aren't expecting Jefferson to see 12 targets yet again, but could he take one deep against a Bears defence that has been susceptible to allowing a big reception? We don't think so. With McCarthy under centre, Jefferson has cleared his longest reception line in one of four games this season.

Suggested pick:

Justin Jefferson u25.5 Longest Reception (-110)

WR Jordan Addison

There may not be a player who suffers more with McCarthy under centre than Jordan Addison. He plays his best when he's getting targeted deep, and that really hasn't been where they've connected this season, especially last week when he had just an 11.2 aDoT. Against man coverage, Addison has turned his 11 targets into six receptions and 85 receiving yards on his 70 routes. Against standard Cover 2, he has just a 10.3% target share, turning that into one reception for 15 yards on 28 routes. In Cover 2 man specifically, he has not been targeted on 15 routes. He's just not heavily used against these looks this season. Like Jefferson, Addison lines up predominantly out wide, running 75.5% of his snaps in that alignment. However, Addison is more likely to play into the favour of how the Bears allow more yards per reception as a low-volume, high-yardage receiver. However, we're choosing to lean into the low-volume play for Addison in this matchup. With McCarthy, Addison has caught just five of his 10 targets, logging two and three receptions in their outings together.

Suggested pick:

Jordan Addison u3.5 Receptions (-110)

TE TJ Hockenson

It's just been a pathetic season for TJ Hockenson this season. And he showed that again last week, where he turned his two targets into two receptions and just eight receiving yards. In Week 1 against the Bears is where it all started, catching three of his four targets for 15 receiving yards. What's even more disappointing about that outcome is that the Bears struggle to defend the TE position, allowing the 4th most receptions (6.7) and 10th most receiving yards (60.7) per game. Against man coverage, Hockenson earns just an 8.7% target share, converting six receptions on eight targets for 35 yards across 89 routes. His catch rate against man is impressive at 85.7%, though his yards per reception (5.2), yards after catch per reception (3.3), and yards per route run (0.36) are much lower compared to his production against zone. Against Cover 2, he commands a 17.6% target share and has caught four of six targets for 35 yards on just 31 routes, showing efficiency in shorter, intermediate routes. In the less common Cover 2 man, he has one reception for four yards on two targets from 17 routes. Hockenson lines up inline for the majority of his snaps (42.6%). The Bears allow the 2nd highest catch rate (91.4%) to inline receivers but limit yards per reception (8.09). I really don't like what I've seen from Hockenson. However, we're choosing to believe he can overcome his inefficiency this week.

Suggested pick:

TJ Hockenson o2.5 Receptions (-210)

The Bears let the game slip away in Week 1, but I don't see that happening again. Chicago has just looked like the better team to this point of the season, and the standings reflect that. If the Vikings do go down in this game and have to rely on a young McCarthy's arm, I don't think he'll have the chops to lead his team to victory against this defence twice in one season. They learned their lesson in Week 1.

Best Bet: Chicago Bears ML -155
Lean: Under 48.5 -110
Score Prediction: Bears 24 Vikings 20

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Bears): Colston Loveland TD (+325)

We're getting a nice price on Loveland here, who caught two TDs – including the game winner – against the Bengals two weeks ago. As his volume increases in the offence, Loveland should get more looks in scoring position. The Vikings have been the most susceptible to allowing TDs to opposing TEs, allowing 0.7 per game — the 5th-highest in the league — including one in each of the last three weeks.

Best Pick: (Vikings): Justin Jefferson (+110)

Jefferson has struggled to find the end zone this season, scoring just two TDs on the year. However, both of those games had McCarthy under centre, and his first came in Week 1, against this very same Bears defence. Jefferson leads the Vikings in inside the 20 targets (11) and end zone targets (7).

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Bears) D'Andre Swift First TD (+800)

Swift has scored in four of the last five weeks, but missed last week, despite seeing the only inside the five carry. The Vikings have allowed a RB TD in three straight weeks. Two of Swift's five TDs on the season have been the first for the Bears, and one of those were the first of the game. Time to get Swift in the endzone early this week, Chicago.

Best Pick: (Vikings) Justin Jefferson First TD (+700)

Jefferson has not scored the first TD in any game this season, however, in both games in which he did score, it was the first for the Vikings. Jefferson leads the Vikings with a 36.3% first read percentage this season. Chicago is allowing the second most receiving TDs (1.44) per game to opposing WRs.

Parlay 1: (Bears) +300 odds on bet365

Caleb Williams 20+ Rushing Yards

Rome Odunze 4+ Receptions

Colston Loveland 3+ Receptions

Parlay 2: (Vikings) +240 odds on bet365

Aaron Jones 10+ Rush Attempts

Aaron Jones 20+ Receiving Yards

Justin Jefferson 50+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 3: (Lotto) +5500 odds on bet365

D'Andre Swift TD

Justin Jefferson TD

Aaron Jones 15+ Rush Attempts

Rome Odunze 6+ Receptions

QB Davis Mills
Davis Mills will make his second consecutive start as C.J. Stroud continues to recover from a concussion. Last week, Mills showed improvement, completing 27 of 45 passes for 292 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while also adding 20 rushing yards and a touchdown on three carries. His career stats now stand at 6,619 passing yards with 37 touchdowns and 27 interceptions over 41 games. This week's matchup against the Titans is favorable for Mills, as Tennessee ranks 24th in pressure rate (32.7%), which should give him ample time in the pocket. While the Titans allow just over 230 passing yards per game, there's a concern that the Texans might build a solid lead that Mills won't need to throw much in the second half, potentially limiting his overall passing volume. The Titans primarily play zone coverage (77.3%), mostly Cover 3 and Cover 4. Mills has demonstrated a willingness to use his legs, surpassing his low rushing line of 5.5 yards in both of his recent starts. I’ll avoid his passing props in case they game script him out of throwing, but his rushing props intrigue me again this week.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 5.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Woody Marks
Woody Marks has officially seized the starting running back role, evidenced by his 16 touches last week compared to Nick Chubb's 6. Marks capitalized on this increased workload, rushing for 63 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries, along with two catches for 18 yards. He also handled all four snaps inside the five-yard line. For the season, Marks has 81 carries for 304 yards (3.8 YPC) and two rushing touchdowns, plus 15 receptions for 183 yards and two receiving touchdowns. This matchup against the Titans is favorable for Marks. In their Week 4 meeting, when he was still the backup, Marks torched Tennessee for 21 total touches, 119 yards, and two touchdowns. The Titans' run defense has been poor, allowing the eighth-highest yards per carry to opposing running backs (4.84), the seventh-highest explosive run rate (6.5%), and the sixth-highest rushing yards per game (141.3). The potential absence of Jeffery Simmons, the Titans' star defensive tackle, would be a massive boost for the Texans' run game. Given Marks' new role as the lead back and his past success against Tennessee, he is a strong candidate for overs in this one.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 77.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)

RB Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb's workload has significantly dwindled, with just six touches last week (five carries for 47 yards, one catch for five yards). He has clearly lost the starting job to Woody Marks. For the season, Chubb has 96 carries for 402 yards (4.2 YPC) and two touchdowns, along with 11 receptions for 59 yards. Among 35 running backs with at least 80 rushing attempts, Chubb ranks 21st in yards per carry with a 3.1% explosive run rate (27th), 43.8% stuff rate (14th) and 2.34 YACO/A (16th). With a clear reduction in touches and an unexplosive season, Chubb is not a guy I want to back by relying on garbage time to get him over his marks.

Suggested Picks
Longest Rush ‘U’ 9.5 Yards (-110)

WR Nico Collins
Nico Collins is coming off a season-high performance with Davis Mills at quarterback, catching seven passes on 15 targets for 136 yards and a two-point conversion. For the season, Collins has 40 receptions for 550 yards and three touchdowns on 72 targets. His slow start seems to be turning around, as he has now received double-digit targets in three consecutive games and is targeted on 27.4% of his routes (9th best) with 2.1 yards per route (17th best). This matchup against the Titans is excellent for Collins. Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers, and the second-highest yards per target to WR1 options (10.9) with a 6.7% touchdown rate (9th). In their earlier meeting this season, Collins had four catches for 79 yards on six targets against the Titans, even with top cornerback L'Jarius Sneed playing. As long as the game remains competitive enough for the Texans to keep throwing, Collins is a strong option for an over on his receiving yards and possibly, a touchdown.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Jayden Higgins
Jayden Higgins appears to be moving into the WR2 role for the Texans, especially on the outside, running only one fewer route than Hutchinson last week. He's coming off a game with five catches for 42 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. For the season, Higgins has 19 receptions for 201 yards and three touchdowns on 29 targets (65.5% catch rate). He primarily plays out wide (81.8%) and has scored a touchdown in two of the past three games, including one catch for 24 yards and a touchdown against the Titans earlier this season. While Higgins is showing signs of increased involvement and has a nose for the end zone, the Texans are currently rotating a massive number of wide receivers (Hutchinson, Higgins, Kirk, and Noel). This rotation, coupled with the potential for the Texans to build a large lead, makes it difficult to focus on any single secondary receiver. Given the uncertainty of his target share within a crowded group and a potentially run-heavy game script in the second half, Higgins is not a guy I’m running to back.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - LEAN

WR Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk continues to struggle with production and finding chemistry with his QB, catching just one pass on three targets for three yards last week. For the season, he has 15 receptions for 138 yards and no touchdowns on 27 targets (55.5% catch rate). Kirk primarily operates from the slot (71.4%) but split time there with Noel last week (24 routes for Kirk vs. 17 for Noel). Until Kirk can demonstrate more consistent production and a clear connection with the quarterbacks, it's hard to trust him. I’ll pass this week and see if they look to get him more involved.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz is good to go after being questionable with a shoulder/illness, practicing in full on Friday. He's coming off a strong performance with a season-high seven catches on 11 targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. For the season, Schultz has 45 receptions for 438 yards and one touchdown on 59 targets (76.2% catch rate). He's been a consistent target, with at least 50 receiving yards in four of his past five games. This matchup against the Titans presents a mixed bag. Tennessee allows the 11th fewest targets (6.67), 14th fewest receptions (5.22), and 10th fewest receiving yards (47.4) to opposing tight ends. They allow 7.1 yards per target (20th highest) and a 5% touchdown rate (20th) to the position. In their first matchup, Schultz had five catches for 30 yards on six targets. Schultz ranks fifth among tight ends in receiving yards from inline alignments, and the Titans have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to players lined up inline this season. I just don’t see the volume this week in what will likely be a positive game script. I’ll fade the receptions since TEN can’t generate pressure.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions (-150)

QB Cam Ward
Cam Ward leads the Titans into this matchup coming off their bye week, after a performance where he completed 12 of 21 passes for 145 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. For the season, Ward's passing stats are concerning: 57.6% completion rate (33rd among qualified QBs) for 1,760 yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions, with a low 5.97 YPA (31st). His PFF grade against zone coverage ranks 32nd, which is a major red flag as the Texans play zone at the sixth-highest rate (78.0%), utilizing mostly Cover 3 and Cover 4. Houston's defense has also been excellent against the pass, allowing the lowest completion rate in the league (56.9%), 6.2 yards per attempt (31st), and just a 3.3% touchdown rate (28th). In their first meeting, Ward threw for 222 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. While Ward has struggled as a passer, he did show some willingness to use his legs in their first matchup with two carries for 22 yards. I wonder if coming out of the BYE, they put a little more emphasis on Ward using his legs. I’m not looking towards overs on his passing props here, but I’ll take a shot on him using his legs and him throwing an interception if it’s playable on your books.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 5.5 Rushing Yards (-107)
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (-160)

RB Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard enters this game after sharing backfield touches with Tyjae Spears, a split that was promised in the preseason by the coaching staff. Before the BYE, Pollard had 10 carries for 56 yards and one catch for 12 yards. For the season, he has 119 carries for 480 yards (4.0 yards per carry) and two touchdowns, along with 19 receptions for 143 yards. His advanced metrics show a 2.5% explosive run rate (30th), showing a lack of explosiveness behind a bad offensive line. The Texans present a tough matchup for opposing running backs, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (90.3), the seventh-lowest yards per carry (3.89), and the 13th-lowest explosive run rate (3.8%). While Houston does allow the 15th-highest yards after contact per attempt (2.08), the overall defensive strength against the run, combined with Pollard's shared workload, makes him a difficult player to back in what should be another negative game script for Tennessee.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 11.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

RB Tyjae Spears
Tyjae Spears has solidified his role in a 50/50 split with Tony Pollard, and he brings a different dynamic to the Titans' backfield. Before the BYE, Spears had seven carries for 26 yards and three catches for 36 yards. For the season, he has 30 carries for 152 yards (5.07 yards per carry) and one rushing touchdown, along with 13 receptions for 96 yards. Spears has shown good efficiency in a limited sample size, particularly running in zone concepts (60.0% success rate). The Texans' defense is more susceptible to running backs in the passing game, allowing ~22% of their receptions to running backs (11th-highest). While the Texans are generally strong against the run, Spears' as a receiver is interesting to me. With a good coverage unit, Ward could look to Spears as an outlet option out of the backfield.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Calvin Ridley

Calvin Ridley's status for this game is uncertain due to a hamstring injury, and he only logged a light practice all week, making him a questionable play closer to game time. Even if he plays, the matchup against the Texans is brutal. Houston allows a league-low 54.3% catch rate to wide receivers, which is a poor combination with Cam Ward's league-low 57.6% completion rate. Ridley's season has been inconsistent with 16 receptions for 290 yards and no touchdowns on 35 targets (45.7% catch rate). In their first meeting this season, Ridley had just two catches for 30 yards on three targets. Considering his questionable injury status, the tough matchup, and his lack of consistent production throughout the season, Calvin Ridley over are not recommended.

Suggested Picks
'U' 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Elic Ayomanor
Elic Ayomanor led the Titans in receiving last week with three catches for 46 yards on six targets, but the potential return of Ridley muddies the waters. For the season, Ayomanor has 26 receptions for 323 yards and two touchdowns on 53 targets (49.0% catch rate). He primarily lines up out wide (82.6%), but the Texans’ defense is incredibly stingy against outside receivers, allowing the second-fewest out-wide receiving yards per game (79.6), the lowest catch rate (52.4%), and the third-lowest passer rating (70.7%). While Ayomanor did have 44 receiving yards on two catches (seven targets) in their first matchup against Houston, the individual matchup against Houston’s outside coverage is brutal. If he doesn’t connect on a deep ball from Ward, his statline might look rather quiet.

Suggested Picks
'U' 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Chimere Dike
Chimere Dike presents as the most interesting betting option among the Titans' wide receivers this week, despite a quiet performance last week (one catch for five yards with plus a punt return touchdown). For the season, Dike has 21 receptions for 194 yards and one touchdown on 33 targets (63.6% catch rate). He primarily operates from the slot (71.6%), which is important in this matchup. Houston's defense is more susceptible to slot receivers, allowing the 14th most receiving yards to the slot (72.9), the 20th highest catch rate (69.9%), and the sixth-highest 1st read rate (81.9%). I’m not running to the books to bet his overs, but he does look like the most appealing option in TEN as a bounce back candidate. Not to mention, his touchdown props always tend to have some value too.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
Chigoziem Okonkwo continues to hold the starting tight end role over rookie Gunnar Helm, but this week's matchup against the Texans is not a particularly good one. Last week, Okonkwo had two catches for 10 yards on two targets. For the season, he has 29 receptions for 281 yards and no touchdowns on 39 targets (74.3% catch rate). The Texans' defense has been excellent at shutting down opposing tight ends, allowing the sixth-fewest receptions per game (3.89), the sixth-fewest targets (5.67), and the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game (35.0) to the position. While Okonkwo splits his time between inline (41.1%) and the slot (44.9%), Houston's overall tight end defense is strong regardless of alignment. There’s a chance we could see more of Helm out of the BYE, but regardless this isn’t a spot I’m looking to back Chig.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Best Bet: Total Under 37.5
Leans: HOU Texans H1 -2.5 -165
Game Prediction: Texans 24 - Titans 13

I don't love betting against teams out of the BYE, but this Titan's team is historically bad. They have lost 8 consecutive home games and only have had a lead on 2.7% of offensive snaps this season! Now they run into an elite HOU defense that shut out TEN in their first meeting. Davis Mills is by no means a qaulity QB, but this TEN defense can make backups look good enough. If there is no Simmons for TEN, I like the spread more btu this feels like a sloggy game where HOU can run their way to a victory.

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Texans): Woody Marks +150
Marks has FINALLY taken over this backfield, out-touching 16-6 last week. If Simmons gets ruled out I think we see this line drop even more. Marks had all four touches inside the 5 last week and scored a pair of touchdowns against this TEN defense in week 4. TEN has allowed at least 1 rushing touchdown in EVERY game this season. We'll take the lead back at +150 in what should be a positive game script.

Longshot (Titans): Chimere Dike +550
We talked in the game guide about how Dike will likely get the best matchup of the pass catchers. Houston's defense is more susceptible to slot receivers, allowing the 14th most receiving yards to the slot (72.9), the 20th highest catch rate (69.9%), and the sixth-highest 1st read rate (81.9%). Dike is used primarily out of the slot, but they also like to use him in the reverse game and he's the kick/punt returner. That's a lot of ways to score a touchdown and they may have a more creative game plan coming out of the BYE with nothing to lose.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Texans): Nico Collins +600
This is still a pretty solid price for Nico given the matchup. His slow start seems to be turning around, as he has now received double-digit targets in three consecutive games and is targeted on 27.4% of his routes (9th best) with 2.1 yards per route (17th best). He's scored in two of the last four against TEN dating back and Mills targeted Collins 6 times last week in the redzone!

Longshot (Titans): Gunnar Helm +2800
Helm is a rookie they may become more involved after the BYE week. It's been discussed how Cam Ward and Helm have been really close and have built a lot of chemistry as rookies. Over his last 5 games, Helm is averaging 2.6 receptions per game and scored just two games ago. On the season he has 4 redzone targets, which is three more than the starting tight end, Okonkwo! If you are looking to take a Titan, go with a longshot because they almost never score first.

 Parlay #1 (Texans) +812

Woody Marks TD

Nico Collins 60+ Receiving Yards

Davis Mills 10+ Rushing Yards

Parlay #2 (Titans) +420

Cam Ward Over 5.5 Rush Yards

Chig Okonkwo Under 21.5 Rec Yards

Chimere Dike 20+ Rec Yards

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love’s struggles continue after another inefficient outing against Philadelphia. He completed 20 of 36 passes for 176 yards (4.9 YPA) with no touchdowns and one lost fumble, and Green Bay’s offense only managed seven total points. Love has now gone four of his last five games with one or fewer total touchdowns. The Giants present a mixed bag defensively — they play the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL (39.2%), and Love has actually performed better against man looks, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and a 3.9% CPOE across 85 dropbacks. However, Wink Martindale’s blitz-heavy tendencies could expose Love’s protection issues, especially with New York generating pressure on 41.1% of opposing dropbacks. Expect Green Bay to lean on quick passes and play-action to settle Love early.

Suggested Play:
'O' 0.5 Interceptions (+125)

RB Josh Jacobs

Jacobs continues to be Green Bay’s lone consistent offensive engine. Against the Eagles, he handled 74% of snaps, 78% of carries, and a 57% route share, finishing with 21 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown, plus five catches for 33 yards. That kind of usage is elite, and the matchup this week sets up perfectly. The Giants’ run defense has collapsed, allowing the most yards before contact per attempt (2.78) and the second-most rushing yards per game (119.7) over the past month. They’ve also surrendered at least one rushing score in five straight games. Jacobs’ physical running style and Green Bay’s improving guard play make him the centerpiece again — especially in red-zone situations where he’s scored in 18 of his last 20 games (including playoffs).

Suggested Play:
'O' 1.5 Touchdowns (+185)

WR Christian Watson

Watson’s role as Green Bay’s deep threat continues to solidify, even if the stat lines don’t fully reflect it yet. He played a season-high 82% of snaps against the Eagles and led all wideouts in route share, catching 2 passes for 45 yards on 4 targets. Watson’s usage has been high value — a 23-yard average depth of target — and he’s posted 2.98 yards per route run across his last three contests. The Giants’ aggressive man coverage creates one-on-one chances downfield, and they’ve allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game (119.4) to outside receivers. Expect Love to take a few early deep shots to Watson, especially on play-action off Jacobs’ runs, to loosen up the Giants’ secondary. If one connects, it could flip the game script early.

Suggested Play:
'O' 20.5 Yard Longest Reception (-125)

TE Luke Musgrave

With Tucker Kraft out for the season, Luke Musgrave steps into the full-time tight end role. In his first game as the lead option, he caught all 3 of his targets for 23 yards, playing on 76% of offensive snaps. The Giants’ defensive scheme — heavy man coverage and frequent blitzing — often leaves tight ends isolated on safeties or linebackers. Musgrave averages 1.40 yards per route run and has a 16% target-per-route rate, both solid for a rookie who’s still developing chemistry with Love. New York allows 48.7 receiving yards per game to tight ends and the 15th-most receptions per game (5.4), which could put Musgrave in position for steady midrange usage, especially on third downs and quick outlets.

Suggested pick:
'O' 26.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

QB Jameis Winston

Winston will make his first start of the year with Jaxson Dart in the concussion protocol. The veteran hasn’t seen live action yet in New York, but he inherits a solid offensive line and an emerging TE weapon in Theo Johnson. The Packers run a lot of Cover 3 (33%) and Cover 2 (19%), and while Winston doesn’t have much recent film in Brian Daboll’s old system, his aggressive downfield style may mesh well with Mike Kafka’s vertical designs. Green Bay’s defense has allowed only 209.8 passing yards per game (10th fewest) and ranks 13th in passing touchdowns allowed (1.4 per game), meaning Winston will need to pick his spots. With a big arm and a talented YAC slot receiver in Wan’Dale Robinson, New York’s best chance may come from intermediate crossers and early scripted throws before the Packers’ front can pressure.

Suggested Play:
No bet — Winston’s first start brings too much uncertainty.

RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Tracy led the Giants’ backfield last week with 64% of snaps, 47% of carries, and a 37% route share, while Devin Singletary mixed in for 36% of snaps and most of the red-zone work. The Packers’ run defense allows the 12th-most yards before contact per attempt (2.24) and 11th-fewest rushing yards (80.3 per game), showing they often win at the line but give up chunk gains when runs reach the second level. Green Bay also gives up 26.4 receiving yards per game to RBs, a number that could rise if Winston leans on checkdowns. With Brian Daboll gone and Mike Kafka calling plays, it’s possible Tracy’s usage expands, especially in the passing game where Singletary was Daboll’s guy.

Suggested Play:
'O' 61.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

Robinson remains the heart of the Giants’ passing game, seeing 28% of targets and a near every-down route share (98%) in last week’s loss. He’s been most productive versus zone coverage, averaging 2.42 yards per route run and a 26% target rate against the Packers’ preferred Cover 3 and Cover 2 shells. The problem? Green Bay allows the fewest receiving yards (40.2) and fewest yards per route run (1.27) to slot receivers, forcing everything underneath. That said, Robinson’s quick separation and timing routes could still help Winston move the chains. The Packers just allowed DeVonta Smith to post 4 catches, 69 yards, and a TD from the slot — so there’s room if the Giants scheme him open early.

Suggested pick:
'O' 58.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson continues to emerge as a central piece of the Giants’ offense. He’s coming off his best game yet — 7 catches on 8 targets for 75 yards, good for a 22% target share and 97% snap rate. Johnson has been efficient against zone coverage, averaging 1.20 yards per route run and commanding a 20% target rate on 119 routes versus Cover 2 and 3 looks. Green Bay’s defense has allowed the 4th-most receptions (6.7 per game) but just the 14th-fewest yards (50.3) to tight ends, showing they bend but don’t break. Johnson’s reliability underneath could make him Winston’s security blanket, especially in red-zone looks.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+160)

Best Bet: Giants +7.5 -120
Lean : 'U' 42.5 
Game Prediction: Packers 20 Giants 17

The Packers come into this game struggling heavily offensively, and desperate for a win. I think that the Giants going to Jameis Winston may provide them an immediate jolt, as his prescence did initially last season with Cleveland before eventually falling flat. However, the Packers simply have too much to lose, and a key interception by Winston could be the difference.

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Giants): Tyrone Tracy Jr. +160

Theo Johnson continues to emerge as a central piece of the Giants’ offense. He’s coming off his best game yet — 7 catches on 8 targets for 75 yards, good for a 22% target share and 97% snap rate. Johnson has been efficient against zone coverage, averaging 1.20 yards per route run and commanding a 20% target rate on 119 routes versus Cover 2 and 3 looks. Green Bay’s defense has allowed the 4th-most receptions (6.7 per game) but just the 14th-fewest yards (50.3) to tight ends, showing they bend but don’t break. Johnson’s reliability underneath could make him Winston’s security blanket, especially in red-zone looks.

Best Bet: (Packers) Luke Musgrave +300

Musgrave ran a 76% snap share last week, and with Tucker Kraft done for the season, that number isn’t going down. He has already shown strong per-route efficiency at 1.40 yards per route run, and Love tends to target him in the middle of the field when pressured. The Giants have also given up a tight end TD in three of their last four games, mostly due to coverage busts on scramble drills — an area where Musgrave thrives thanks to his size and mobility. Green Bay’s red-zone passing concepts (TE leaks, backside crossers, and the delayed tight end flat route) all suit Musgrave’s skill set, especially in a game where the Giants will key heavily on stopping Jacobs at the goal line.

First TD Scorer

Longshot (Giants): Wan'Dale Robinson +1100

Wan’Dale Robinson continues to be the engine of this Giants offense, and his usage points to a real chance at striking first in Green Bay. Over the past five games, Robinson has commanded a 27.8% target share, with 35% of those targets coming on opening drives or scripted possessions. His alignment versatility — moving between the slot and motion looks — makes him Winston’s most reliable short-area option, especially early in the game while the new QB settles in. The Packers’ defense has shown cracks on their first defensive series, allowing a touchdown on 42% of opponent opening drives this year (fifth-worst in the NFL). Green Bay runs zone coverage on over 74% of defensive snaps, and Robinson averages 2.4 yards per route run and a 26% target rate versus those looks. His quick separation on option routes and flats could create an easy scoring chance near the goal line — especially since the Giants lean heavily on screens and motion passes inside the red zone (they’ve thrown on 67% of red-zone plays since Week 6). Expect Robinson to be Winston’s first read in the scripted red-zone sequence.

Longshot (Packers): Josh Jacobs +270

Jacobs is easily the strongest script-dependent TD option in this matchup. Green Bay gives him elite usage near the goal line — he owns 78% of team carries, 74% of snaps, and a massive 57% route share from last week. The Packers lean on him even more early in games, where he’s handled 75% of first-quarter touches over the last three weeks. Now he gets a Giants defense that has completely fallen apart against the run. New York allows the most yards before contact per carry (2.78), the second-most rushing yards per game (119.7), and has given up five first-quarter touchdowns during their recent slide. Jacobs also enters with one of the most reliable scoring profiles in the league — touchdowns in 18 of his last 20 games, and 11 TDs this season. The Giants’ heavy man looks (39.2% usage) often pull their linebackers out of the box against motion-heavy teams, and Green Bay loves using orbit and jet motion to create crease lanes for Jacobs at the goal line. With the Packers expected to try to settle Jordan Love early and avoid unnecessary risk, Jacobs should get the first crack if they reach the red zone.

 Parlay #1 (Giants): +280

Tyrone Tracy ATD

Wan'Dale Robinson 'O' 58.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (Packers) +340

Josh Jacobs ATD

Christian Watson 'O' 20.5 Longest Reception

Luke Musgrave 'O' 26.5 Receiving Yards

QB Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold showed good efficiency last week, completing 10 of 12 passes for 178 yards and a touchdown, though his overall volume was limited due to the Seahawks' early first half dominance. For the season, Darnold boasts an impressive 9.92 YPA (1st in NFL) and a 116.5 passer rating, completing 71.1% of his passes for 2,262 yards, 17 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He ranks first in the NFL in both yards per pass attempt (10.0) and yards per completion (14.0). Darnold excels against zone coverage, ranking sixth in EPA against those looks, and the Rams run zone at the seventh-highest rate (77.7%), primarily Cover 3. He's particularly effective on play-action passes, averaging a league-high 13.9 yards per attempt and 20.2 yards per completion, though the Rams have been stingy on play-action touchdowns (1.6%). The Rams' defense is allowing 6.7 yards per attempt (25th) and a 3.8% touchdown rate (24th). Expect a more competitive game this week, which should force Darnold to throw much more, especially considering Seattle's subpar running game (don’t be fooled by last week). In what should be a really good matchup with two of the NFC’s top teams, expect Darnold to have to air it out.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 30.5 Passing Attempts (-105)
‘O’ 249.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Kenneth Walker III
Kenneth Walker III faces a tough challenge against the Rams' run defense this week. Last game, he had 14 carries for 67 yards and one catch for three yards. For the season, Walker has 120 carries for 539 yards (4.5 YPC) and three touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 83 yards. His advanced metrics show the 15th best yards per carry among qualified running backs and a strong 7.5% explosive run rate (5th). However, the Rams' defense has been excellent against the run, allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (96.9), the lowest explosive run rate (1.3%), and the sixth-lowest yards per carry (3.88). They've also allowed only one rushing touchdown to running backs all season. Pivoting to the receiving game for Walker also isn't the best idea given Darnold has targeted running backs on a league-low 9.0% of his attempts. With Seattle potentially abandoning the run in a tough matchup and Walker splitting carries with Charbonnet, this looks more like a fade spot for Walker.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 12.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)

RB Zach Charbonnet
Zach Charbonnet showed a rare burst of explosiveness last week with 14 carries for 83 yards, though it came mostly when the game was already out of hand. For the season, Charbonnet has struggled with efficiency, posting a 3.3 yards per carry (35th - last among qualified RBs) on 94 carries for 313 yards, but he does have six touchdowns. He also has seven catches for 57 yards. His advanced metrics include a poor 3.2% explosive run rate (25th) and middling 2.43 yards after contact per attempt (14th). Against a much tougher Rams run defense that has allowed a meager 3.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs and only one rushing touchdown to the position, it's likely Charbonnet will revert to his typically inefficient self. While his touchdown upside is always present in short-yardage situations, his overs on rushing yards and attempts don’t look appealing. With how good LAR is at limiting explosive runs, I’ll look at the under longest rush for Zach.

Suggested Picks
Longest Rush ‘U’ 10.5 Yards (-115)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having an outstanding season, leading the league with 1,041 receiving yards on 63 catches from 85 targets (74.1% catch rate) and five touchdowns. Last week, he had five catches for 93 yards and a touchdown on just six targets, running only 11 routes. JSN is a zone-beater, ranking first in yards per route run against zone coverage, which aligns perfectly with the Rams running zone at the seventh-highest rate. He has a dominant share of the team's targets (38.8%) and air yards (52.9%). The Rams have allowed 9.5 yards per target (7th) against outside receivers, where JSN primarily lines up. In the three games this season where JSN has run 30 or more pass routes, he has consistently produced big numbers: 8-123-1, 8-103-0, and 8-132-1. If the Seahawks are forced to pass more in a competitive game, JSN should see plenty of routes and targets. If you are considering fading JSN at this point, get yourself a wellness check.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 95.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Rashid Shaheed
Rashid Shaheed's role in the Seahawks' offense is expected to grow. Last week, he saw limited action with one catch for three yards on one target, but he also added two carries for 20 yards. For the season, Shaheed has 45 receptions for 502 yards and two touchdowns on 67 targets (67.1% catch rate) across his time with both the Saints and Seahawks. He split snaps almost evenly with Kupp last week (8 for Shaheed, 9 for Kupp), suggesting a growing role. With Kupp seemingly losing a step, Shaheed's ascension into the WR2 role seems inevitable. He plays more outside, similar to JSN, and this presents a solid matchup for him. Shaheed just faced the Rams two weeks ago with New Orleans, catching five of nine targets for 68 yards. Given his explosive nature and a likely low receiving yardage line, the over on his receiving yards is appealing, assuming his usage ramps up as expected.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE A.J. Barner
A.J. Barner is good to go after dealing with a calf issue and practicing in full all week. He's looking to rebound from a goose egg last week (0 catches on 0 targets) due to the uncompetitive nature of the game. For the season, Barner has 21 receptions for 236 yards and four touchdowns on 26 targets (80.7% catch rate). He leads the team with eight red zone targets, double any other pass catcher. He is also being used in the tush-push formation (scoring on one recently). The Rams allow the 15th most targets (7.67), 14th most receptions (5.56), but 22nd most receiving yards (47.9) to tight ends per game. While they allow only 6.3 yards per target (25th) to the position, they have given up a 7.3% touchdown rate (11th). Barner should see a rebound in targets and receptions in a more competitive game. I’ll back receptions once again in a more pass-heavy game script for SEA. His TD prop is back on the table too.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-105)

QB Matthew Stafford

Matthew Staffford is 37 years old, but the 17-year veteran is playing like a 27-year old in the prime of his career. He has the Rams out to a 7-2 start at the midway point of the season, averaging 270 passing YPG (4th most) to go with 25 TD (most in NFL) and just 2 INT (fewest among starting QB). Stafford hasn't been picked off since week 2, and he's currently in the midst of a 7-game stretch where he has an astonishing TD to INT ratio of 20:0. We've simply run out of superlatives to do justice with how the LAR starting QB has performed. The current frontrunner for NFL MVP in '25 will be at home this Sunday to face divisional foe, Seattle. This week, I'm all in on his over 36.5 pass attempts line. Stafford has only cleared this number in 2 of his 9 starts this year, but he's hammered this in 2 of 2 games when going up against a Mike McDonald led defense. He recorded 41 PA vs BAL in '23 and 44 vs SEA in '24. The Seahawks play zone at rougly an 80% clip, and with any zone defense there are holes to be found. Stafford has the experience, accuracy, arm strength, and most importantly the IQ and receiving talent to attack a zone based defense. Seattle has also been elite, and takes great pride in stopping the run. The Seahawks have literally been a brick wall against every team they have faced, and its for this reason why opposing QBs have been forced to throw the ball at the highest rate in the league. Starting quarterbacks have crushed their pass attempts line on multiple occasions vs SEA, a list that includes Jacoby Brissett (44), C.J. Stroud (49), Trevor Lawrence (42), Kyle Murray (41) and Spencer Rattler (39). Matthew Stafford is playing with the highest level of confidence he's ever had, and this game will also be played at home inside of passer-friendly SoFi Stadium. It also doesn't hurt that he is supported with the best receiving duo in the NFL in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. I look for him to put the team on his back this Sunday 

Suggested Bet:

Matthew Stafford o37.5 Pass Attempts (-147)

RB Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams seems to find a way every week to give us solid production, but this Sunday vs Seattle is a matchup to temper expectations. The Seahawks boast the league's 2nd best rush defense behind only Cleveland. We are entering week 11, and SEA has still not allowed a single RB to rush for more than 70 yards in a any game. I've heard many people expressing concerns regarding Blake Corum steadily eating into Williams usage. Kyren (51 carries) has had just 13 more carries than Corum (38) over the past 3 weeks, but this is where you can't just look at things on the surface. The reality is the Rams have had 3 straight blowout wins, and this has given Corum more opportuniies to run the football. Furthermore, when Los Angeles is either tied or trailing, Kyren Williams has seen 80 of the team's 96 backfield touches. While I would proceed with caution, there's reason to get behind Williams rushing yards this week. Kyren is not the kind of back you see breaking off big gains, however he's failed to gain yardage on just 12.3% of his runs. To use a baseball analogy, Williams is like a hitter who doesn't give you many home runs, but he also rarely strikes out. If this game plays out as the script forecasts, there's a plausible case for him reaching his line. I prefer to play it safe here and buy the juice, which could very well be the difference maker here.

Suggested Bet:

Kyren Williams 50+ Rush Yards (-158)

WR Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua has hauled in 66 balls for a team-leading 775 yards receiving to go along with 4 trips to the end zone. Many are suggesting that Nacua's production has been slightly lacking due to him being banged up, and while it's possible there's some truth to that, I still have my doubts. I see this much the same as the case of Kyren Williams. LAR has had 3 blowout victories, and there was no reason for McVay to push Nacua when it wasn't necessary. It will be a different story on Sunday when they face a Seahawks teams who they enter tied for first with at 7-2. The only issue here is the standard for Nacua is extremely high, which means all it takes is one or two things for an over prop to go south quickly. One trend that has me worried is the recent emergence of Davante Adams, where Puka has lost routes to his teammate in 13 personnel packages. And while I standy by the fact that his injuries are a bit overblown, the fact remains he has one gear and this sometimes leads him into unsettling situations. When you factor in the success of Seattle's defense, this is one of the few times all year I'm fading Nacua.

Suggested Bet:

Puka Nacua u88.5 Rec Yards (-113)

WR Dvante Adams

Davante Adams is curently listed as questionable, and is dealing with an oblique strain which gives me cause for concern because this can be a lingering injury and one that until it fully heals can hamper ones ability to perform at a high level. I would monitor him all the way up until gametime. Should he play, I wouldn't over complicate things with yardage and receptions, but rather stick with what has been his bread and butter all season, and that's getting into the end zone. Adams leads all WR with 9 TD this season. He's found pay dirt in 6 of 9 games in '25, and in his last 3 games Adams has scored on six different occasions. During this stretch, Davante has posted TD totals of 1 (@SF), 2 (vs NO) and 3 (vs JAX). Certainly, the Seahawks pose a much larger threat than any of these aforementioned teams, but Adams is both a huge target and difficult threat to neutralize in the red zone.

Suggested Bet:

Davante Adams Anytime TD (-115)

TE Tyler Higbee

Here's the good news. The Seahawks surrender the 5th highest rate of receptions allowed to the TE position (29.5%), along with the 10th highest catch-rate (76.0%) and 10th highest YPT (7.8). Now, here's the bad news. Over the past 3 games, Sean McVay has transitioned to a 4-man rotation at the TE position, where all four have caught a touchdown during this stretch. This list that includes Tyler Higbee (9-65 on 13 targets), Terrance Ferguson (33.3% route-share), Colby Parkinson (4-117 on 10 targets), Colby Parkinson (9-98 on 10 targets) and Davis Allen (6-49 on 7 targets). The two big players at hand are Tyler Higbee, who has the highest route-share among LAR tight ends at 42% and Terrance Ferguson, who is an explosive play threat at any given time. He leads this group with 23.0 air yards per target. And while dangerous, Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen simply do not provide us with enough usage to be relied upon, as the two have been on the field for only a combined 27% of dropbacks. Given the shear volume Seattle has given up at this position, I'm targeting Tyler Higbee here. He's had 3 catches in each of his last 3 games, and he gets a Seahawks defense who is allowing the 2nd most receptions per game (7.1) to opposing TEs.

Suggested Bet:

Tyler Higbee o2.5 Receptions (-150)

I trust both teams to put up points. Give me the Over and the Rams to win at Home

Best Bet: Over 47.5 -150
Lean Rams -2.5 -125
Game Prediction Seahawks 24 Rams 30

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Seahawks): A.J. Barner +300
Barner has double the redzone targets of any other pass catcher on this roster. LAR has given up a 7.3% touchdown rate (11th) and Barner is now being used in the tush push formation each of the last two weeks. Really like this price after a disappointing goose egg last week!

First TD Scorer

Longshot (Seahawks): R. Shaheed +1800
Shaheed only saw 8 snaps thanks to the blowout, but his role should only grow. What was promising is that he was also used in the run game as well. He's the type of player than can score a long touchdown or get in on a reverse. SEA will likely have something dialed up for him early as an explosive player to try and grab an early lead against a top NFC team.

Parlay #1 (Seahawks) +468

Sam Darnold 225+ Pass Yards

JSN 125+ Receiving Yards

Zach Charbonnet Under 32.5 Rush Yards

Parlay #2 (Rams) +395

Matthew Stafford 36+ Pass Attempts

Davante Adams 5+ Receptions

Davante Adams Anytime TD

Tyler Higbee 3+ Recepttions

QB Jacoby Brissett

Marvin Harrison Jr.'s emergency appendectomy put a real wrench into what I was projecting for Jacoby Brissett against the 49ers, so this is being significantly simplified. The 49ers defense is reeling to say the least. Without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, San Francisco has become a shell of their former selves. They have allowed the 4th most passing TDs (19) to opposing QBs, and almost all of this has come post injuries to Bosa and Warner. They've allowed 2+ passing TDs in 5 of their L6 games. This list includes Matthew Stafford (4), Jaxon Dart (2), C.J. Stroud (2), Baker Mayfield (2), Matthew Stafford (3). Now they face Jacoby Brissett who has sparked some life into the Arizona offense, and he's thrown exactly 2 TDs in each of his 4 starts this season, and two of those games were against SEA and GB, both who have solid pass defenses. He and Trey McBride are virtually attached at the hip and that will only aid him in tossing another pair of touchdowns in home game on Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Jacoby Brissett o1.5 Pass TDs (-115)

RB Emari Demercado

It is still uncertain whether or not Bam Knight plays in week 11 as he continues to battle an ankle injury, but that's a non-issue for me anyway as I am backing Emari Demercado on Sunday. Here's your stat of the week. Over the past 3 years, there have been 77 running backs who have carried the ball at least 100+ times. Emari Demercado has averaged over a yard more per carry than every single one of them. The Arizona RB has averaged 6.85 YPC in the last 3 seasons, and for the life of me I can't figure out why he continues to be forgotten about. This week, he should have another opportunity to prove the masses wrong when he looks to take advantage of a lame 49ers defense. Demercado should see a strong workload, and he added the pass-catching game to his repetoire last week. We are nearing the midnight hour before game time, however, and no props are listed anywhere for Demercado, who is clearly getting hamstrung based on availablity of Knight. 

Suggested Bet:

Emari Demercado (props not yet available)

WR Michael Wilson

If this isn't a case of how quickly a player's value can ascend in a moment's notice, nothing is. Michael Wilson has been a major benefactor to having Jacoby Brissett under center, and now he's been thrust into assuming the #1 WR role for the Cardinals now that Marvin Harrison Jr. is out with appendicitis. In his 4 starts with Brissett at QB, Wilson is averaging 3.5 receptions on 5 TPG, not to mention 12.4 YPR. He sees a healthy number of snaps out of the slot, and this should prove to be quite advantageous against a 49ers defense that's been getting chewed apart in this area. Wilson should see somewhere in the neighborhood of 6-8 targets on Sunday, and he shouldn't have any issues maintaining pulling down 4 receptions in this contest.

Suggested Bet:

Michael Wilson o3.5 Receptions (-157)

WR Greg Dortch

Greg Dortch has proven to be the gift that keeps on giving the whole year. He's not a household name, but he's always been a wagon worth riding when needed. And with Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendicitis) and Zay Jones (IR) both out this is the case we're faced with again on Sunday. Earlier this year with Jones out and MHJ playing, he had 64 yards on 64% of the snaps vs Seattle. Dortch should see some 2 WR sets and he will be involved in every 3 WR set in this game. He's also the type of player who can cash this line in one catch with his YAC ability. Over the past 3 years, when seeing a 50%+ snap share, Dortch has cleared 30+ receiving yards in 8 of 12 games. He'll get a  San Francisco defense that ranks in the bottom 10 of the NFL in air yards allowed and dead last in defending slot receivers, where Dortch will see some action in week 11.

Suggested Bet:

Greg Dortch o29.5 Rec Yards (-114)

TE Trey McBride

The narrative has been the same for Trey McBride going on 5 weeks now, so rather than repeat myself over and over let's just keep this simple. Since Jacoby Brissett has taken over at QB, Trey McBride has morphed into Rob Gronkowski 2.0. In 4 games with Brissett under center McBride has been targeted 46 times (10.2/gm), converting it into 32 receptions for 328 yards and 5 TDs. Already seeing 25% of his team's targets in 4 consecutive games, he’s set to earn another massive target share with Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendicitis) out this week. I'm not going to put this kind of pressure on him, but there are many out there who feel like McBride isn in a position to have an all-time great TE output production on Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Trey McBride o77.5 Rec Yards (-113)

Trey McBride Anytime TD (-115)

QB Mac Jones/QB Brock Purdy

The 49ers still haven’t confirmed who starts at quarterback, but both options bring a very clear profile into a matchup with an Arizona defense that sits middle-of-the-pack in most coverage metrics. Mac Jones is coming off one of the most efficient games of his career, completing 33-of-39 passes (84.6%) for 319 yards and 3 TDs with just one interception, posting 8.2 yards per attempt and a strong +5.9% CPOE. On the season, against the Cardinals’ most common coverages — Cover 3 at 27.8% and Cover 4 at 27.2% — Jones has logged 173 dropbacks, averaging 7.95 YPA with a +4.7% completion over expected and 6 scrambles for 51 yards. Brock Purdy has been equally consistent in limited action, clearing 18.8 fantasy points and throwing multiple scores in both starts, while carrying a strong season-long profile of 8.9 YPA, a 72% completion rate, and an elite 115.5 passer rating. Arizona is giving up 239.1 passing yards per game (13th-most) and 1.7 passing TDs per game (7th-most), and they’ve allowed explosives at the 10th-highest rate in the league. These are conditions where either quarterback can stay efficient and sustain long drives. Arizona also blitzes at the 8th-lowest rate, which plays directly into the 49ers’ short-to-intermediate timing game — something both Purdy and Jones have executed extremely well this season.

Suggested Play:

Pass

RB Christian McCaffery

Christian McCaffrey comes in off a quieter rushing day (12 carries for 30 yards) but once again dominated through the air, posting 8 catches for 66 yards while handling 78% of snaps, 57% of carries, and an elite 80% route participation. His floor stays incredibly high because he has exceeded 5 receptions and 52 receiving yards in nine of ten games. Against Arizona, the matchup tilts toward his receiving usage: the Cardinals allow the 8th-fewest receiving yards per game to RBs (24.9), but they’ve been one of the worst teams at defending RB pass involvement, giving up the 4th-highest catch rate and the 10th-highest yards per route run to the position. On the ground, Arizona is allowing 96.9 rushing yards per game and a 1.75 adjusted yards before contact per attempt — both numbers close to league average — but they’ve struggled in red-zone run defense, giving up 12 RB rushing TDs. CMC already hit them for 17/52 rushing and 10/88 receiving earlier in the year. San Francisco’s red-zone usage continues to lean heavily toward McCaffrey, making him the safest TD scorer on the slate in any game he plays.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+185)

WR Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings continues to build momentum as Ricky Pearsall remains sidelined, turning in 6 catches for 71 yards and a score on 9 targets last week, with an 85% route share and a 23% target share. Over the last four games, Jennings has cleared 4+ receptions each week and leads the team in total targets during that span. Against Arizona’s predictable coverage mix — 27.8% Cover 3 and 27.2% Cover 4 — Jennings averages 1.03 yards per route run and a .18 target per route run rate on 120 routes, but his usage has sharply increased as injuries condensed the passing tree. The Cardinals allow 117.7 receiving yards per game to perimeter WRs (7th-most) and rank bottom-10 in yards per route allowed (2.10). They’ve also struggled with contested catches, allowing a 58% success rate on throws outside the numbers, where Jennings runs the majority of his routes. With Arizona’s defense giving up explosive pass plays at the 11th-highest rate, Jennings’ role as a physical intermediate target puts him in another spot to clear meaningful yardage.

Suggested Play:

'O' 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE George Kittle

George Kittle finally erupted last week, catching all nine of his targets for 84 yards and a TD, with a strong 23% target share and 2.21 yards per route run, easily his best outing of the year. The matchup this week is again extremely favorable across all coverage types. Against Arizona’s most common shells — Cover 3 and Cover 4 — Kittle averages 1.65 yards per route run and a .22 target per route run on 63 routes. The Cardinals allow 61.1 receiving yards per game to TEs (9th-most) and have surrendered the 10th-most receptions per game (6.0), consistently struggling to handle tight ends in space and in the seams. Last time these teams met, Tucker Kraft posted 5/58/1, and Arizona has allowed a TE score in four of their last six games. Kittle historically crushes divisional opponents, and the Cardinals specifically — including his 8/64/1 line in his last fully healthy meeting against them. With red-zone usage swinging his direction for the first time this year, this is a strong spot for another touchdown.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+135)

I think this game goes over. Both offenses are HOT.

Best Bet Over 47.5 -135
Lean 49ers ML -190
Game Prediction 49ers 27 Cardinals 24

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (49ers): George Kittle +135

George Kittle finally erupted last week, catching all nine of his targets for 84 yards and a TD, with a strong 23% target share and 2.21 yards per route run, easily his best outing of the year. The matchup this week is again extremely favorable across all coverage types. Against Arizona’s most common shells — Cover 3 and Cover 4 — Kittle averages 1.65 yards per route run and a .22 target per route run on 63 routes. The Cardinals allow 61.1 receiving yards per game to TEs (9th-most) and have surrendered the 10th-most receptions per game (6.0), consistently struggling to handle tight ends in space and in the seams. Last time these teams met, Tucker Kraft posted 5/58/1, and Arizona has allowed a TE score in four of their last six games. Kittle historically crushes divisional opponents, and the Cardinals specifically — including his 8/64/1 line in his last fully healthy meeting against them. With red-zone usage swinging his direction for the first time this year, this is a strong spot for another touchdown.

First TD Scorer

Longshot (49ers): Christian McCaffery +450

If you're looking for the most stable and logical first-touchdown bet on the entire Week 11 slate, it’s hard to argue against Christian McCaffrey. Even in what was considered a “down game” last week, he still handled 57% of the carries, ran a route on 80% of dropbacks, and turned 20 total touches into 96 scrimmage yards. The usage remains elite — over his last five games, McCaffrey has averaged 21.4 touches, 78% snap share, and nearly 6 targets per game, giving him more scoring opportunities than almost any player in football. Inside the red zone, he owns 78% of RB carries and 85% of RB targets, which is an absurd consolidation of high-leverage work. Arizona has been one of the more vulnerable defenses early in games, allowing opponents to score on 53% of opening drives and giving up the 7th-most first-quarter points in the league. Against running backs specifically, they surrender the 14th-most rushing yards per game (96.9) and allow backs to convert at the goal line at a 61% success rate, one of the worst marks in football. When these teams met earlier in the season, McCaffrey logged 17 carries and 10 targets, including multiple red-zone touches, and was clearly the focal point inside the 10-yard line. With San Francisco favored and likely to script the first drive around their most reliable playmaker, McCaffrey is once again the safest — and most logical — first-TD bet on the board.

Parlay #1 (49ers): +420

Christian McCaffery ATD

George Kittle ATD

Christian McCaffery 'O' 71.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (Cardinals): +525

Jacoby Brissett 2+ Pass TD

Michael Wilson 3+ Receptions

Greg Dortch 25+ Rec Yards

Trey McBride 70+ Rec Yards

QB Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson heads into this matchup playing some of his most controlled and efficient football, completing 17 of 29 passes for 176 yards (6.1 YPA) and a touchdown last week while adding 36 yards on the ground. Even though he isn’t running as often—sitting at a career-low 36 rushing yards per game—he’s still leading the entire league in touchdown rate (10.2%) and passer rating (127.1). Cleveland is one of the hardest teams to throw on, allowing just 183.2 passing yards per game, the fewest in the NFL, while also giving up only 13.9 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks. The Browns run man coverage at the third-highest rate (37.9%), and Jackson has been excellent against it, averaging 8.30 yards per attempt, a 7.2% completion percentage over expected, and 3 rushes for 27 yards across 63 dropbacks against man. Cleveland already saw what he can do when he gets hot—Jackson shredded them for 225 yards and four passing touchdowns in Week 2—so even in a tough matchup, his ceiling remains dangerous. With both teams battling inside a defensive-heavy division, Baltimore will likely need Jackson to take on a bigger workload in the passing game again, especially if Cleveland focuses on limiting Derrick Henry early.

Suggested Play:

'O' 209.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry continues to carry the early-down workload in Baltimore, posting 20 carries for 75 yards last week while adding 9 receiving yards on three catches. He played 68% of the snaps, handled 56% of the team’s carries, and held a sizable advantage in routes over Justice Hill (42% vs. 21%). The matchup, however, is about as difficult as it gets. Cleveland ranks near the top across almost every run-defense metric, giving up just 1.63 adjusted yards before contact, 3.71 yards per carry, and 79 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields. When Henry faced this same defense in Week 2, the Browns completely bottled him up, holding him to 23 yards on 11 carries. Cleveland just allowed Breece Hall to grind out 83 yards on the ground, but that came on 21 attempts and required one broken play in space for Hall to pop a 42-yard receiving touchdown. Henry will need physical, efficient runs early to avoid negative game script, as the Browns’ front seven has dominated interior rushing lanes all season. Baltimore should still feed him volume, but this is one of the toughest fronts he’ll face all year.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (-145)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers continues to operate as Baltimore’s most consistent chain-mover, recording 4 catches for 75 yards on 6 targets last week while running a route on 88% of dropbacks. He has topped 63+ receiving yards in eight of nine games, and his ability to win against man coverage makes him especially important this week. Cleveland plays man at the third-highest rate (37.9%), and Flowers has been highly efficient in those situations, posting 2.74 yards per route run, a 28% target rate per route, and strong first-read involvement on those looks. The Browns’ outside coverage has allowed 97.4 receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers, ranking in the lower half of the league, but they rarely get beat deep—they instead give up intermediate chunk plays when QBs can buy time. Flowers already put up 7 catches for 75 yards against Cleveland earlier this season, and Baltimore is likely to lean on his quick-hitting routes again if the Browns’ pass rush forces Lamar to speed up his reads. Even without many touchdowns this season, Flowers is positioned to be the most reliable receiving option Baltimore has in this matchup.

Suggested Play:

'O' 59.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews hasn’t been putting up big yardage numbers this season, but he continues to show why he’s essential inside the red zone. He saw 5 targets last week, catching 3 for 14 yards and a touchdown while playing 61% of the routes, and he has now scored five touchdowns in six games with Lamar Jackson active. Andrews will likely need red-zone success again because Cleveland is very stingy against tight ends between the 20s, allowing just 41.8 receiving yards per game and holding the position to one of the lowest catch rates in the league. They run man coverage nearly 40% of the time, and Andrews has still been efficient against man looks, producing 2.25 yards per route run and a 23% target rate on those snaps. His only previous meeting with Cleveland this year was quiet (one catch for 2 yards), but Baltimore didn’t need him much in that blowout. This week’s matchup figures to be more competitive and more pass-heavy, which often translates into Andrews getting more involvement when the Ravens reach scoring territory.

Suggested Play:

'O' 3.5 Receptions (-115)

QB Dillon Gabriel

Dillon Gabriel enters Week 11 coming off a mixed performance against the Jets, completing 17-of-32 passes for 167 yards (5.2 YPA) and 2 TDs while adding a season-high 54 rushing yards. Even with the two scores, Gabriel still hasn’t cleared 200 passing yards in four of his five starts and is averaging just 5.91 YPA on the season. His efficiency craters against man coverage — the exact thing Baltimore uses heavily. The Ravens run 35.4% man coverage, sixth-highest in the league, and Gabriel averages only 5.08 YPA, a –8.3% CPOE, and a modest 4/35 rushing on 74 dropbacks against man. Baltimore’s pass defense is volatile but improving, allowing 258.4 passing YPG, but they haven’t given up multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games, and they’re forcing QBs to throw into tight windows at one of the highest rates in the AFC. Gabriel posted 182 passing yards and 1 TD in this matchup in Week 2 but did most of his damage late after the Ravens took control. This sets up as one of the tougher environments he’s faced, and Cleveland will likely need his legs more than his arm to stay competitive.

Suggested Play:

'U' 27.5 Yard Longest Completion (-120)

RB Quinshon Judkins

Quinshon Judkins returned healthy after the Week 9 bye and handled a strong workload, finishing with 22 carries for 75 yards along with two receptions against the Jets. He’s now reached 71+ scrimmage yards in six of eight games, but he has hit a wall the past few weeks because he’s facing stacked boxes and getting blown up at the line — he’s currently being stuffed on 54.3% of his carries, fifth-highest among RBs with 50+ attempts. The good news: this matchup actually fits his style. The Ravens give up 4.68 YPC, 96.9 rushing YPG, and rank 11th-worst in adjusted yards before contact allowed (1.82). Since Week 6, Baltimore is quietly giving up the sixth-highest explosive run rate, struggling with backside gap integrity, and allowing 8.4 YPC on gap runs, which matter a lot because 56.4% of Judkins’ carries are gap-scheme concepts. Judkins posted 10/61 rushing the first time these teams met, and Baltimore’s defensive line has been more inconsistent since then. The volume plus scheme match makes this a solid yardage spot.

Suggested Play:

'O' 71.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy finally broke out last week with 6 catches for 78 yards and a TD on 12 targets, ending a long stretch of inefficiency. Even with the breakout, his numbers with Dillon Gabriel remain shaky — he sits at 30.6 receiving YPG, 0.90 yards per route run, and a 20% target share over Gabriel’s starts. But this matchup gives him a real chance to continue trending upward. The Ravens play 35.4% man coverage, and Jeudy is one of the few Browns receivers who actually improves vs man, posting 1.28 YPRR and a 24% target per route run. Baltimore has been vulnerable on the perimeter, allowing 115.0 receiving YPG to outside WRs and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers since Week 6. Jeudy posted 4/51 in the first matchup despite even worse QB play at the time, and now walks into a spot where Cleveland may need to throw more than usual if playing from behind. His volume spike last week wasn’t a fluke — he accounted for 38% of the team’s targets and continues to lead the team in first-read opportunities. Volume + matchup makes this a strong yardage play.

Suggested Play:

'O' 42.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Harold Fannin

Harold Fannin continues to see quietly elite usage for a rookie tight end, running a route on 74% of dropbacks last week and drawing 7 targets (22%) — his fifth straight game with 4+ receptions. With Gabriel under center, Fannin has averaged 1.56 yards per route run, a strong 22% target rate, and has become the most reliable chain-mover on the roster. Njoku still mixes in but has taken more of a complementary role at this point. Baltimore’s defense is physical but attackable over the middle, allowing 55.2 receiving YPG to tight ends and 5.4 receptions per game, both near league average. In the first matchup, Fannin posted 5/48 while Njoku added 4/40, showing that the Ravens’ man-heavy scheme naturally funnels targets to tight ends on pivot and sit routes. Given that Gabriel completes just 53.1% of his throws and struggles to push the ball outside, Fannin is the player most likely to rack up short, easy completions again — especially on third downs, where he leads the team in targets. The receptions prop is the cleaner angle given his role and consistency.

Suggested Play:

'O' 4.5 Receptions (+115)

Every game is a MUST WIN for the Ravens and Lamar is good to go. Give me the Ravens 

Best Bet Ravens -6.5 -135
Lean Ravens 'O' 23.5 -118
Game Prediction Raves 24 Browns 14

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Ravens): Mark Andrews +165

Mark Andrews hasn’t been putting up big yardage numbers this season, but he continues to show why he’s essential inside the red zone. He saw 5 targets last week, catching 3 for 14 yards and a touchdown while playing 61% of the routes, and he has now scored five touchdowns in six games with Lamar Jackson active. Andrews will likely need red-zone success again because Cleveland is very stingy against tight ends between the 20s, allowing just 41.8 receiving yards per game and holding the position to one of the lowest catch rates in the league. They run man coverage nearly 40% of the time, and Andrews has still been efficient against man looks, producing 2.25 yards per route run and a 23% target rate on those snaps. His only previous meeting with Cleveland this year was quiet (one catch for 2 yards), but Baltimore didn’t need him much in that blowout. This week’s matchup figures to be more competitive and more pass-heavy, which often translates into Andrews getting more involvement when the Ravens reach scoring territory.

Best Bet (Browns) Harold Fannin +415

Harold Fannin has quietly become Dillon Gabriel’s most reliable underneath option, seeing 7, 6, 7, 8, and 7 targets in his last five games with Gabriel under center and running routes on 74%+ of dropbacks. Baltimore’s defense plays man coverage at the sixth-highest rate (35.4%), and Fannin has actually been productive against man — posting 1.56 YPRR and a strong 22% target-per-route rate against it. The Ravens also allow the 14th-most receiving yards to TEs (55.2/game) and give up 5.4 catches per game to the position, which creates steady volume opportunities near the goal line. Cleveland is using Fannin more creatively every week — seam routes, flat boots, middle sit routes — and Gabriel’s tendency to bail to short middle reads makes Fannin the most natural red-zone safety blanket on the roster. With Njoku splitting routes and used more as a blocker in heavy sets, Fannin is the tight end most likely to catch a schemed-up play inside the 10.

First TD Scorer

Longshot (Ravens): Derrick Henry +385

If the Ravens are going to punch first in this division matchup, Derrick Henry is the most likely candidate to cap the opening drive. Even in a tough matchup, Henry’s usage near the goal line hasn’t disappeared — he handled 56% of the RB carries, logged a 68% snap share, and still dominates early-down work. Baltimore has shown a clear preference for leaning on Henry inside the 5-yard line, and the Browns’ defense, while excellent overall, has been more vulnerable early in games. Over the last three weeks, Cleveland has allowed opponents to score on their opening drive in two of three games, giving up 42-yard and 19-yard red-zone drives that both ended in rushing plays. Henry also has a long history of being the “tone setter” in physical matchups — 11 of his last 16 touchdowns have come in the first half, and five were scored on the first drive of the game. His one matchup with Cleveland earlier this season was ugly statistically (11 carries, 23 yards), but they didn’t face Henry with Lamar back and the offense fully functional. With the Browns likely to sell out to contain Lamar early, Henry should get the first crack at finishing a short-field drive. At +650, this is strong value for a back who still owns the highest goal-line share on the team and remains Baltimore’s preferred finisher when they get inside the 10.

Longshot (Browns) Quinshon Judkins +515

Judkins has taken over as the early-down and red-zone runner, handling 22 carries last week, 54% of snaps, and 56% of the rushing share in Cleveland’s offense. Baltimore’s run defense has quietly slipped since Week 6, allowing the sixth-highest explosive run rate, 11th-most yards before contact per attempt, and they sit 16th in missed tackle rate — all areas where Judkins’ downhill style fits well. The Browns clearly want to establish him early, giving him double-digit carries in every healthy game, and he already produced 61 rushing yards in his first meeting with Baltimore back in Week 2 despite limited usage at that time. The Ravens also tend to concede early long drives before tightening up, giving up the first score in five of their last seven games. If Cleveland opens with a scripted rushing series — which they often do — Judkins is the likeliest finisher, especially with Gabriel struggling to push the ball downfield. At almost 10-to-1, this is a strong value for a running back with true first-drive volume.

 Parlay #1 (Ravens) +445

Zay Flowers 'O' 59.5 Receiving Yards

Mark Andrews 'O' 29.5 Receiving Yards

Derrick Henry ATD

Parlay #2 (Browns) +1700

Quinshon Judkins ATD
Harold Fannin ATD

Jerry Jeudy 'O' 42.5 Receiving Yards

QB Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes enters this matchup coming off one of his least productive outings of the season, going just 15 of 34 for 250 yards (7.4 YPA) with an interception in the Chiefs’ loss to Buffalo. Even in a down game, he still pushed the ball well downfield, but Kansas City simply couldn’t finish drives — something that has plagued them in spurts this year. Before the bye, Mahomes had recorded multiple touchdowns, 250+ passing yards, and at least 23 fantasy points in seven of his first nine games, showing that his weekly ceiling remains elite even when the weapons around him haven’t always been consistent. Denver presents a unique challenge — since Patrick Surtain left the lineup, the Broncos have played two-high shells on 63.4% of opponent dropbacks, a major schematic shift designed to force quarterbacks into underneath throws. Against two-high this season, Mahomes has averaged 7.11 yards per attempt, a +3.8% completion percentage over expected, and added 129 rushing yards on scrambles created by deep coverage shells. Denver has held three straight quarterbacks under 9 fantasy points, allowing just 206.6 passing yards per game and a league-low 0.8 passing touchdowns per game. However, their man and zone metrics show vulnerability underneath and in the intermediate areas — exactly where Mahomes thrives when defenses force him into patience. In last year’s meeting, he still posted 266 yards and a touchdown with 19 rushing yards. Given the Chiefs’ need to stabilize the AFC West race and Mahomes’ historical habit of bouncing back after poor outings, he should see a larger volume of controlled, methodical passing — even if Denver limits explosive plays.

Suggested Play:
O 261.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Kareem Hunt

Kareem Hunt walks into this matchup as the clear lead back again with Isiah Pacheco unlikely to return, and last week’s usage tells the whole story — Hunt played 80.7% of the snaps, handled 55% of the carries, and logged a 50% route share, while Brashard Smith barely saw the field. Even with just 12 touches, Hunt punched in yet another red-zone score, giving him 6 touchdowns in his last 7 games, and he remains Kansas City’s primary goal-line option. The matchup itself, though, is not ideal. Denver’s run defense has completely flipped the script since Week 6 — allowing the fewest adjusted yards before contact per rush (1.34), the lowest explosive run rate in the NFL, and just 78 rushing yards per game. In man and zone looks last week, Denver held Ashton Jeanty to just 3.1 yards per carry and only 19 rush attempts total. Hunt isn’t an efficiency play — he ranks at 1% explosive run rate, 10% missed-tackle rate, and 2.23 yards after contact per attempt — so his production comes almost entirely from volume and touchdown chances. In a slow, defense-heavy divisional game where the Broncos will force everything underneath and take away big plays, Hunt’s most realistic path is grinding 14–16 touches with a handful of short-yardage opportunities.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+145)

WR Rashee Rice

Rashee Rice continues to function as Kansas City’s most reliable weapon, putting up 4/80 receiving on 8 targets with a 79% route share, plus a 6-yard rushing TD last week. He now has 18+ combined touches and a TD in all three games since returning. Against two-high shells — Denver’s base look now at 63.4% of defensive snaps — Rice has been extremely efficient, posting 4.38 yards per route run and a 41% target-per-route rate, the highest mark on the team. Denver’s secondary, even without Patrick Surtain, has been stingy: they allow the 5th-fewest receiving yards per game (123.7) and held CeeDee Lamb to 7/74 earlier this year. But Rice’s role isn’t dependent on deep shots — he leads Kansas City in first-read looks and short-area usage, which is exactly how you attack Denver’s soft-zone structure. With Marquise Brown and Tyquan Thornton seeing inconsistent efficiency vs man (Brown at 0.65 FF per route, Thornton at 0.42), Rice remains Mahomes’ most stable chain-mover. Expect a heavy dose of slants, crossers, and schemed touches to neutralize Denver’s pass rush, creating another solid volume game even in a tough matchup.

Suggested Play:

'O' 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Xavier Worthy

Xavier Worthy has struggled to regain his early-season burst and has remained a secondary option behind Rice, logging 3/23 on 7 targets last game despite an 84% route share. Worthy hasn’t topped 53 yards in five straight games, and against two-high coverage — Denver’s primary shell — he has been nearly erased, averaging just 0.67 yards per route run with a 16% target rate. The Broncos defend deep threats exceptionally well, giving up only 39.7 receiving yards per game on throws of 20+ air yards. Worthy’s man-coverage metrics also lag behind KC’s other receivers — in man looks last week, Worthy generated just 0.39 fantasy points per route, while Rice doubled that output. Kansas City continues to use him as a vertical spacer to clear zones for Rice and Kelce rather than as a high-volume target. Against a disciplined Denver secondary that forces underneath throws and prevents explosive plays, Worthy is positioned for another quiet outing unless he rips off a gadget play or broken coverage.

Suggested Play:

'U' 31.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce delivered a clean 4/66 line on 5 targets and an 84% route share last week, extending his streak to 47+ yards in 8 of 9 games. Kelce faces Denver’s two-high shell at a high rate, and against that look he’s been his usual efficient self — 1.84 yards per route run, 21% target-per-route rate, and heavy work over the middle of the field. Denver’s defense is strong against tight ends on volume, allowing just 4.1 receptions per game, but they’ve been beatable in yardage with 53.5 receiving yards allowed per game, ranking middle of the pack. With JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquise Brown, and Worthy all struggling to separate consistently vs zone (none above 1.0 yards per route run vs two-high), Kelce projects as Mahomes’ most reliable matchup beater on third downs. This is typically the type of game where he’s leaned on early and often — low scoring, slower pace, tight coverage outside, and Mahomes needing a safety valve to move the chains. The Broncos held Brock Bowers mostly in check last week, but the Chiefs scheme Kelce far more creatively, and his usage remains consistent regardless of opponent.

Suggested Play:

'O' 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

QB Bo Nix

Ew. Last week was gross for Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos. They still walked away with a win, but another performance like that this week against the Kansas City Chiefs, and it can get ugly quick. The Chiefs allow the 8th fewest completions per game (19.8), the 4th fewest pass attempts (27.7), the 6th fewest passing yards (195.9) and the 4th fewest passing touchdowns (1.0) to opposing QBs. They simply don’t allow volume through the air, forcing opposing offences to win with efficiency rather than sheer attempts. Kansas City run man coverage at the 12th highest rate (26.2%), the highest rate of Cover 0 in the NFL (8.5%), and leans on Cover 2 at the 7th highest rate (19%). Against man coverage, Nix has been quietly effective. He has faced 75 dropbacks against the coverage, completing 63% of his passes (9th best), while producing a weak 7.25 yards per attempt but a strong 107.2 QBR. However, things get far more complicated against Cover 0 and Cover 2. Against Cover 0, Nix completes a solid 61.5% of throws but averages just 4.77 yards per attempt. Against Cover 2, Nix has had trouble. On 48 dropbacks, he owns the lowest completion percentage in the league at 61.4%, the 3rd lowest yards per attempt at 5.27, and the 4th lowest QBR at 73.3. So, it might be a struggle through the air for Nix. The only real advantage for Nix comes on the ground, where Kansas City gives up the 4th most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks (26). Nix hasn't been shy to use his legs when he has to this season. If you're just looking into his game logs, you'll see him finish in the negative in two of his last three outings. However, in recent competitive games, Nix has flashed, rushing for 36 yards against the Houston Texans and 48 against the New York Giants. This divisional game against the Chiefs is expected to be similar, with the Broncos being 3.5 home underdogs.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix o24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB RJ Havey

JK Dobbins has officially been ruled out for this game, giving RJ Harvey his biggest opportunity to take over this backfield. But it won't be easy. The Chiefs allow the 4th fewest rush attempts per game (17.6) and the 7th fewest rushing yards (77.7). Kansas City runs zone concept at the 8th higest rate (51.8%), compared to their league-low 26.1% man/gap rate. Oddly enough, there isn't an edge from a yards per carry standpoint in either coverage, as the Chiefs allow 4.3 yards per carry against both zone and man/gap. Where the matchup will get difficult on the ground for Harvey will be the fact that the Chiefs run zone concept at such a high rate because Harvey averages just a 2.17 yards per carry — the lowest among 100 qualified RBs. On the other hand, Harvey's been excellent against man/gap looks, averaging 6.48 yards per carry, the 5th highest among starting backs this week. So while it might not be the best day for Harvey on the ground, he should find success through the air. The Chiefs are giving up the 12th most receptions (4.2) and 11th most receiving yards (33.7) to RBs. He lines up in the backfield on 69.1% of his routes, and while Kansas City is targeted at the 9th lowest rate by backfield receivers (39), they give up the 4th highest catch rate (87.2%) and the 7th highest yards per reception (8.03). Especially when you consider this should be a close game, and nobody would be surprised if the Broncos are trailing against the Chiefs, they'll need to abandon the run and use Harvey as a receiver as an extension of the run game.

Suggested Pick:

RJ Harvey o15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

RJ Harvey 30+ Receiving Yards (+280)

WR Courtland Sutton

It wasn't necessarily the greatest bounceback week for Courtland Sutton coming off a one reception week, hauling in three of his four targets for 24 receiving yards. However, nobody on this Broncos offence did, so Sutton gets a pass. Sutton enters Week 11 against a Kansas City defence that is allowing the 14th fewest receptions (10.9) and the fewest receiving yards per game (106.1) to the position. Against man coverage, Sutton has been one of Denver’s most reliable and productive weapons. He’s earned a strong 24.8% target share on 64 routes, turning 18 targets into 12 receptions for 204 yards. His efficiency spikes across the board in these situations — a 68.8% catch rate, 16.7 yards per reception, 4.9 yards after the catch, and a strong 2.67 yards per route run. Sutton has played the part of the best Broncos WR against man coverage. He hasn't faced much Cover 0 (just nine routes), but he's seen a bit more production. Sutton leads the Broncos in target share against the look (15.9%), posting five receptions for 63 yards on seven targets across 35 routes. Sutton plays 80.3% of his snaps out wide. The Chiefs aren't targeted much against that alignment (3rd lowest), and don't allow much in terms of receiving yards (83.3, 5th fewest per game), but allow the 2nd highest catch rate (70.7%). With that in mind, and Sutton dominating the Broncos receivers against man coverage, it should line up for a big week for him, where Nix will have to rely on his most veteran receiver against a difficult Chiefs matchup. This line is also criminally low.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton o3.5 Receptions (-150)

Courtland Sutton 5+ Receptions (+155)

WR Troy Franklin

Is Troy Franklin surpassing Sutton on the depth chart? He has the benefit of building a connection with Nix in college, but he's logged 36 targets over the past month compared to Sutton's 25. The true test will be this week against the Chiefs. Against man coverage, Franklin sees a team-high 28.8% target share on 57 routes, catching 12 passes for 75 yards. Against Cover 0, Franklin's been Nix's most reliable target, leading the two with four receptions on five targets for 26 yards on nine routes. In fact, Franklin's the only Broncos receiver with more than one target against the coverage. Cover 2 is where efficiency dips. Franklin has four receptions for 32 yards on 34 routes. But it's not just against Cover 2, it's against zone as a whole that he sees his numbers dip, with a lower catch rate (52.6%), smaller yards per reception (5.2), and just 0.83 yards per route run. Franklin plays 50.1% of his snaps in the slot, where the Chiefs are targeted at the 7th lowest rate but allow the 5th highest catch rate (75%) while still giving up the 4th fewest yards per game (54.6) and the 2nd lowest yards per reception (8.18). So, the Chiefs are great at limiting slot receivers when they have the ball in their hands, but they struggle to keep the ball out of their hands. We don't typically love suggesting the same prop for both receivers, but Franklin is seeing the most targets in this offence and has a matchup that sets up well for a high-volume game.

Suggested pick:

Troy Franklin o4.5 Receptions (+120)

TE Evan Engram

Kansas City has been one of the league’s better units at containing production from tight ends, allowing the 9th fewest receptions per game (4.3) and the 13th fewest receiving yards (49). Against man coverage, Engram has caught four of his six targets for 47 yards across 40 routes. However, he sees his target share dip by 50% to just 11% against man. Not only that, but he struggles against the Chiefs top two coverages, catching his lone target for 20 receiving yards against Cover 0, and just two of his three targets for 20 yards against Cover 2. Even his alignment should be troublesome for Engram. He lines up inline on 43.4% of his routes, where the Chiefs have been targeted at the 6th lowest rate. However, they allow the 5th highest catch rate (86.4%) and the highest yards per reception (13.11) to the position. But even in favourable matchups this season, Engram hasn't been able to exploit them. So we aren't too high on him against a Chiefs defence that's among the league's best against the TE position.

Suggested pick:

Evan Engram u3.5 Receptions (-130)

Not a fan of Bo Nix and his advanced stats back that up. Give me the Chiefs is a route

Best Bet Chiefs -2.5 -125
Lean Chiefs 'O' 23.5 Pts -142
Game Prediction Chiefs 27 Broncos 17

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Broncos): Bo Nix TD (+375)

We like Nix to use his legs this week, and he's been able to find the end zone with them this season. He has scored three rushing TDs this season. With the Chiefs allowing among the most rushing yards to QBs this season, that's also translated into the most rushing TDs allowed (0.66) per game to the position.

Best Pick: (Chiefs): Kareem Hunt (+145)

Kareem Hunt walks into this matchup as the clear lead back again with Isiah Pacheco unlikely to return, and last week’s usage tells the whole story — Hunt played 80.7% of the snaps, handled 55% of the carries, and logged a 50% route share, while Brashard Smith barely saw the field. Even with just 12 touches, Hunt punched in yet another red-zone score, giving him 6 touchdowns in his last 7 games, and he remains Kansas City’s primary goal-line option. The matchup itself, though, is not ideal. Denver’s run defense has completely flipped the script since Week 6 — allowing the fewest adjusted yards before contact per rush (1.34), the lowest explosive run rate in the NFL, and just 78 rushing yards per game. In man and zone looks last week, Denver held Ashton Jeanty to just 3.1 yards per carry and only 19 rush attempts total. Hunt isn’t an efficiency play — he ranks at 1% explosive run rate, 10% missed-tackle rate, and 2.23 yards after contact per attempt — so his production comes almost entirely from volume and touchdown chances. In a slow, defense-heavy divisional game where the Broncos will force everything underneath and take away big plays, Hunt’s most realistic path is grinding 14–16 touches with a handful of short-yardage opportunities.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Broncos) Bo Nix First TD (+2000)

Nix scored the first TD in Week 4 against the Cincinnati Bengals, showing that he isn't afraid to use his legs early to lead his team to victory. And if we think Nix is going to use his legs often, why can't it be early, and Nix makes a statement against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs?

Best Pick: (Chiefs) Patrick Mahomes (+1800)

If you want a true long-shot angle for this matchup, Mahomes as the first TD scorer (rushing) is actually one of the smartest “needle-in-a-haystack” plays on the board. Denver’s defense has shifted heavily into two-high shells (63.4% the last two weeks), which forces everything underneath and consistently drives Kansas City into long, sustained red-zone possessions. When defenses stay light and play the pass first, Mahomes historically becomes more willing to take off—he has 129 rushing yards on 19 attempts against two-high this season and has 19, 25, and 28 rushing yards in three of his last four games vs Denver. Inside the 10-yard line, Kansas City has been one of the most pass-heavy teams in football, but when plays break down—especially early in games—Mahomes’ scramble lane is almost always the very first counterpunch Andy Reid trusts.

Parlay 1: (Broncos) +225 odds on bet365

Bo Nix 20+ Rushing Yards

RJ Harvey 2+ Receptions

Courtland Sutton 4+ Receptions