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Lean 
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Anytime TD Scorer

First TD Scorer

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Lean 
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Lean 
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Anytime TD Scorer

First TD Scorer

QB Justin Herbert

Herbert comes into Week 11 after a quiet showing versus Pittsburgh, completing 20 of 33 passes for 220 yards and one touchdown. The Jaguars’ defense plays a heavy dose of Cover 3 (31.2%) and Cover 6 (21.5%), and Herbert has excelled against those looks — averaging 8.1 yards per attempt with a +9.7% completion percentage over expected and solid mobility (11 rushes, 99 yards) when facing them this season. Jacksonville’s defense has struggled to pressure the passer consistently, ranking 24th in pressure rate (18.5%) over the past month, while allowing multiple passing TDs in four of their last six games. With his protection improving and route timing sharp with McConkey and Johnston, Herbert should be able to pick apart the intermediate zones and push the ball downfield when the safeties rotate.

Suggested Play:
'O' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-158)

RB Kimani Vidal

Vidal rebounded last week with a strong 25-carry, 95-yard, one-touchdown performance, commanding 94% of snaps and 81% of the team’s carries. The Jaguars’ run defense has been stout, allowing just 71.7 rushing yards per game (3rd fewest), but they’ve been far more vulnerable through the air — giving up 40.7 receiving yards per game (5th most) to running backs. Vidal’s 50% route participation suggests he’ll see volume on screens and dump-offs, especially against Jacksonville’s Cover 6 shells where linebackers drop deep and leave space underneath. His red-zone usage has also been consistent, handling 83% of RB touches inside the 10.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+100)

WR Ladd McConkey

McConkey is emerging as Herbert’s most reliable option, coming off a 4-catch, 107-yard, 1-TD outing on six targets. Against zone coverages (Cover 3 and 6 combined), he’s averaging 1.47 yards per route run with a 16% target rate, thriving on quick-breaking routes from the slot. The Jaguars rank 8th-fewest receiving yards allowed to slot receivers (56.8 per game), but their nickel corners have struggled to contain route precision and motion usage — exactly where McConkey wins. Expect Herbert to lean on him early on third downs and scripted drives.

Suggested Play:
'O' 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Quentin Johnston

Johnston saw eight targets last week, catching five for 42 yards with an 88% route share. While the yardage hasn’t been explosive lately, the Jaguars’ secondary could change that. Jacksonville has surrendered 134.1 receiving yards per game (3rd most) to perimeter WRs and allows a hefty 13.3 yards per reception in those alignments. Johnston owns a 24% target share over the last two games, and with McConkey drawing attention inside, he should see several vertical looks off play-action. If Herbert gets time in the pocket, one of those deep shots could connect.

Suggested Play:
'O' 21.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

TE Oronde Gadsden

Gadsden left Week 10 with a quad bruise but is trending toward playing. Prior to the injury, he had four straight games with at least five receptions and 68+ yards. The Jaguars’ defense has been soft against tight ends, giving up 72.6 receiving yards per game (3rd most) and 6.9 receptions per game (2nd most) to the position. Against zone coverage, Gadsden ranks among the most efficient TEs with 3.04 yards per route run and a 23% target rate, thriving in seams and underneath crossers. Assuming he’s active, he’s well-positioned for a bounce-back performance.

Suggested Play:
'O' 3.5 Receptions (+120)

Best Bet 
Lean 
Game Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Chargers): Kimani Vidal +100

Vidal rebounded last week with a strong 25-carry, 95-yard, one-touchdown performance, commanding 94% of snaps and 81% of the team’s carries. The Jaguars’ run defense has been stout, allowing just 71.7 rushing yards per game (3rd fewest), but they’ve been far more vulnerable through the air — giving up 40.7 receiving yards per game (5th most) to running backs. Vidal’s 50% route participation suggests he’ll see volume on screens and dump-offs, especially against Jacksonville’s Cover 6 shells where linebackers drop deep and leave space underneath. His red-zone usage has also been consistent, handling 83% of RB touches inside the 10.

First TD Scorer

Longshot (Chargers): Ladd McConkey +735

McConkey has quickly become Justin Herbert’s go-to option in key situations. Over the last four games, he’s averaging 7.2 targets, 71.5 receiving yards, and has commanded a 26% first-read share in the red zone. The Chargers love using him on motion and jet shifts early in drives — a tendency that’s led to him seeing three red-zone targets on opening possessions since Week 6. Jacksonville’s secondary struggles with communication early in games, especially in Cover 3 rotations, allowing four first-drive touchdowns through the air this season. McConkey’s blend of route precision and quick acceleration makes him a nightmare on short-field slants and whip routes, which are staples of Kellen Moore’s early-game playbook. With the Jaguars likely bracketing Johnston on the boundary and crowding Vidal in the box, McConkey should have favorable leverage inside the 10-yard line.

Best Bet 
Lean 
Game Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

First TD Scorer

Best Bet 
Lean 
Game Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

First TD Scorer

Best Bet 
Lean 
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Anytime TD Scorer

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Best Bet 
Lean 
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Anytime TD Scorer

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Lean 
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Lean 
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Best Bet 
Lean 
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Anytime TD Scorer

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Best Bet 
Lean 
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Anytime TD Scorer

First TD Scorer

Best Bet 
Lean 
Game Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

First TD Scorer

Best Bet 
Lean 
Game Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

First TD Scorer

Best Bet 
Lean 
Game Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

First TD Scorer