QB C.J. Stroud

Coming into this matchup, Stroud’s season has been a mix bag. He’s thrown for a career-high in completion rate (64.5%), while holding a solid touchdown rate (4.5%) and interception rate (2%) compared to previous seasons. He also threw for a career-low 217 yards per game and ranked 24th in success rate. Stroud has struggled under pressure this season behind a sub-par offensive line. With pressure, he’s averaging 6.0 yards per attempt (20th) and a 3.7% touchdown rate (23rd). That’s compared to 7.8 yards per attempt (12th) and a 4.9% touchdown rate (15th) without pressure. Over the last three weeks of the regular season, PIT has not done a great job of generating pressure (34.0%), but do hold a solid 7.5% sack rate. With T.J. Watt back last week, PIT did generate more pressure (38.1%) against BAL and this PIT defense has been night and day with or without him in the lineup. Stroud has been decent against the blitz, but not great. His completion rate is actually just about 3 points better, but he owns a 2:2 touchdown to interception ratio while blitzed this season. That’s coupled with a 10.2% sack rate. Surely, PIT will blitz in this game as they have all season - 5th highest rate in the league (28.7%). Ultimately, I think this is going to be a chess match of a game and this HOU offense will struggle. I think we could see Stroud on the move, so if you are looking for an over it’s likely rushing yards. I’ll fade his passing props here with a game that owns the lowest total of the weekend.

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 230.5 Passing Yards (-110)

‘U’ 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-145)

RB Woody Marks

It looks like Jawhar Jordan won’t play in this game after logging DNP’s on both Thursday and Friday. That likely means that Marks will retake a majority of the backfield with Chubb potentially sprinkled in. This is a tough matchup for Marks, whose numbers already look pretty sub-par. Marks owns 3.59 yards per carry, a 46.4% success rate and only a 3.6% explosive run rate this season. Over the last five games to close the 2025 regular season, PIT has allowed the 25th most rushing yards per game (102.0), the lowest rushing success rate (41.7%) and 25th highest yards after contact per carry (1.60). They have been susceptible to some explosive plays ,5.0% explosive run rate, but that has not been a standout feature of Marks all season. Only 131 of his 703 rushing yards have been explosive. With all of that being said, this number is really low for a big workload and potentially positive game script. It’s over or pass for me.

Suggested Pick

‘O’ 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Nico Collins

Nico sat in week 18 to get healthy for this wildcard round matchup. He’s had a really nice second half after a slow start, but has been held to under 60 yards each of his last two games to close the 2025 regular season. The volume also hasn’t always been there, with 4 targets in two of his last 4 games. PIT hasn’t played many teams with a true WR1 of late, but we have seen multiple big games to Zay Flowers (4-138-2 and 8-124-0) over the last five weeks. Overall, Pittsburgh has been susceptible through the air. They are allowing the 5th most receiving yards per game to opposing wide outs. Nico has shown up in the playoffs the last two seasons too. In 2023, he averaged 82 receiving yards over two playoff games with 17 targets and a touchdown. In 2024, he averaged 101.5 receiving yards per game on 16 total targets and a touchdown. He should get plenty of volume in this one. Nico owns a 23.5% target share in the red zone this season, which is 11th among wide receivers this year. This game might be a slog, but this is not a spot I’m looking to fade Nico. His touchdown prop is my favorite to back. 

Suggested Picks

Anytime Touchdown +155

WR Jayden Higgins

Despite no Collins and a 38-point effort from Houston last week, Higgins only managed a pair of catches on 5 targets for 23 yards. However, he did score his second touchdown in back to back games. It’s been an underwhelming stretch for Higgins. He’s had 2 or fewer catches in each of his last 4 games. If it wasn’t for a long touchdown in week 17 the yardage numbers would look brutal too. As we discussed the matchup isn’t terrible, but I think both teams will look to control the clock and lean on their defense. There are just too many options in this offense for a lower passing volume offense like Houston to back Higgins here. We talked about how PIT loves to bring the blitz. When being blitz, Stroud tends to rely on Collins and Schultz the most. Collins accounts for almost 62% of Stroud passing yards when blitzed. Meanwhile, Schultz has been his efficiency outlet with a 78.6% catch rate against the blitz. I think we see another quiet game from Higgins here as favorites.

Suggested Picks

‘U’ 2.5 Receptions (-125)

TE Dalton Schultz

Schultz remained involved last week to close out 2025. He caught all four targets for 73 yards. He’s put together a really solid season for the Texans. He finished with a team leading 82 receptions on 102 targets (80.4% catch rate) and ranked second on the team with 777 receiving yards. He has been used more as an outlet option (9.5 yards per receptions and 6.6 aDOT), but only owned a 1.2% drop rate. This looks like a really nice spot for Schultz, who has at least 4 catches and 35+ receiving yards in 7 of his last 10 games. Pittsburgh is allowing the 4th most targets per game (8.47), 4th most receptions (6.24) and 5th most yards (65.9) to opposing tight ends. They have also allowed 11 touchdowns to tight ends, which is the 4th most. We’ve talked about Schultz being relied on against the blitz in terms of efficiency, but he also ranks 7th among tight ends in yards per route run against the blitz. Schultz also plays a lot inline and ranks 5th among tight ends in receiving yards from an inline alignment. The Steelers are allowing the 3rd most receiving yards from tight ends that line up inline this season. All signs point to another good game from Schultz.

Suggested Picks

‘O’ 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers is averaging 207.6 passing yards per game, 6.67 YPA, a 65.7% completion rate and a 94.8 QB rating. He’s thrown 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’ll face a Texans defense that ranks #1 in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 6th fewest passing yards per game (183.5). The Texans blitz at the 5th lowest rate in the NFL (21%) but have the 7th highest pressure rate (40.3%). When pressured, Rodgers averages 5.97 YPA, a 42.5% completion rate and a 70.2 QB rating. The Texans top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (32.4%), Cover 4 (21.3%) and Cover 1 (19.5%). Rodgers averages 6.28 YPA, a 64.2% completion rate and a 88.8 QB rating against these 3 coverages. Rodgers will get his top weapon, DK Metcalf, back after a 2 game suspension. This is a tough matchup and I’ll fade Rodgers on his longest completion.

Suggested Pick:

Under 32.5 Longest Completion (-112)

RB Jaylen Warren/Kenneth Gainwell

Warren has been the preferred rushing RB while Gainwell has been the preferred pass catching back. Warren has outcarried Gainwell 26 to 12 in the past 2 weeks. Gainwell has a 58.9% route participation rate to Warren’s 22.3% since week 14. They’ll face a Texans defense that ranks 10th best in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 4th fewest rushing yards per game (93.7). Against zone concept runs, the Texans allow the 3rd fewest YPC (3.69) and the 3rd lowest success rate (42.5%). Against man/gap, they allow the 5th fewest YPC (3.56) and the 3rd lowest success rate (43.6%). 63.5% of Warren’s rush attempts have been zone concept, where he’s averaging 4.68 YPC and a 52.2% success rate. That compares to 4.49 YPC and a 60.3% success rate in man/gap. In terms of the receiving matchup, the Texans allow the 14th most receiving yards and 15th most receptions to RBs. With Gainwell’s reception line at 5.5, I don’t see much value. The Steelers are 3-point underdogs and the game total is just 38.5 points. I’ll fade Gainwell’s rushing attempts.

Suggested Pick:

Kenneth Gainwell Under 7.5 Rush Attempts (-112)

WR DK Metcalf

Metcalf will return after missing the prior 2 weeks due to suspension. He’s averaging 56.7 receiving yards per game, 1.98 YPRR and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. He leads the team in 1st-read rate at 27.7%. He’ll face a Texans defense that ranks #1 in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 6th fewest receiving yards per game (183.5). DK has lined up out wide on 78.8% of his routes. The Texans specifically allow the 5th fewest YPRR (1.78) and the 4th fewest receiving yards per game (84.9) to wide alignment. The Texans blitz at the 5th lowest rate in the NFL (21%) but have the 7th highest pressure rate (40.3%). When his QB has been pressured, DK averages 0.85 YPRR and has been targeted on just 8% of his routes. The Texans top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (32.4%), Cover 4 (21.3%) and Cover 1 (19.5%). Against these 3 coverages, DK has positive splits, averaging 2.32 YPRR, 27% TPRR and has a 1st-read rate of 29.4%. I’m not expecting a lot of offense in a game with just a 38.5 implied total.

Suggested Pick:

Under 56.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

TE Pat Freiermuth

Darnell Washington broke his forearm 2 weeks ago and Jonnu has fallen out of favor in terms of playing time. Freiermuth leads the tight ends with a 48.9%, 64.3% and 70% route participation rate in the last 3 weeks. DK returns so Freiermuth’s usage may decline on the margin. On the season, he’s averaging 28.6 receiving yards per game, 1.64 YPRR, and 18% TPRR. He has a 1st-read rate of just 10.4%.  He’ll face a Texans defense that ranks #1 in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 6th fewest receiving yards per game (183.5). The Texans allow the 10th fewest receiving yards and 16th fewest receptions to TEs in particular. The Texans blitz at the 5th lowest rate in the NFL (21%) but have the 7th highest pressure rate (40.3%). When his QB is pressured, Freiermuth leads the team in receiving, averaging 1.27 YPRR and 14% TPRR. The Texans top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (32.4%), Cover 4 (21.3%) and Cover 1 (19.5%). Against these 3 coverages, Freiermuth averages 1.20 YPRR, 18% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 8.9%. I’ll fade Freiermuth in what I expect to be a defensive game.

Suggested Pick:

Under 3.5 Receptions (-130)

I am not betting this simply because who wants to cheer against Aaron Rodgers in his possible final game. if the Steelers cant find success in the short game its going to be a long night. It's such a tough game to pick so I lean the under in a grind it ou type of game 

Best Bet - Under 39.5 -110
Lean - Texans -2.5 -130
Score Prediction Texans 20 Steelers 17

Anytime TD Scorer 

No Steelers Touchdown (+500)

The Texans are arguably the best defense in the league and this game has just a 38.5 implied total. Think this could be a field goal fest with not much scoring, just not a believer in this offense.

Longshot (Texans): Dalton Schultz +255

This looks like a really nice spot for Schultz, who has at least 4 catches and 35+ receiving yards in 7 of his last 10 games. Pittsburgh is allowing the 4th most targets per game (8.47), 4th most receptions (6.24) and 5th most yards (65.9) to opposing tight ends. They have also allowed 11 touchdowns to tight ends, which is the 4th most. Over the last 5 weeks, Pittsburgh has allowed four touchdowns to tight ends. Schultz has been his efficiency outlet for Stroud with a 78.6% catch rate against the blitz. With Schultz operating essentially as the number two in this passing offense, he should get a few redzone looks.

First TD

Longshot: (Texans): Nico Collins +650

I’m not going to overthink this one. Stroud tends to be hyperfocused on his top target in meaningful games, especially in the playoffs. OVer his four playoff games, Nico is averaging 8.25 targets per game with a pair of touchdowns. We just saw Zay Flowers cook this defense for two touchdowns and Nico owns a 23.5% target share in the red zone this season, which is 11th among wide receivers this year. He can score in a multitude of ways - in the redzone, via the deep ball or even potentially in the rushing game. As away favorites, look for HOU to try and make a statement early.

Parlay #3 (Steelers) +317

DK Metcalf Under 56.5 Receiving Yards
Kenneth Gainwell Under 28.5 Rushing Yards
Aaron Rodgers Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Parlay #2 (Texans): +1203

Dalton Schultz Touchdown

HOU ML

Dalton Schultz 50+ Receiving Yards

Jayden Higgins under 2.5 Receptions

QB Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams will travel to meet Carolina this Saturday to kick off the NFL Playoffs. The Panthers have just two wins over teams above .500 this season, however one of those came at home against this very same LAR team back in Week 13, where they came out with a 31-28. I expect a far different outcome in this Wild Card round matchup, but I'll get to that later. My favorite prop for Matthew Stafford is his passing attempts line set at 33.5. My reason behind this is a combination of Carolina's recent trends vs quarterbacks in the passing game and what Sean McVay's offensive approach will be on Saturday. Carolina finished the regular season with the 6th most pass attempts (28.1/gm) allowed by opposing QBs. However, this number is heavily skewed towards the front half of the season. In fact, only 5 quarterbacks threw 34 or more passes against the Panthers this year. They include Michael Penix (36), Tua Tagovailoa (36), Dak Prescott (34), Tyrod Taylor/Justin Fields (34) and Jordan Love (37. All of those occurred in Weeks 3, 5, 6, 7 and 9 respectively. In their last eight games of the season not one QB cleared the 33.5 line set for Saturday. Here are the opposing quarterbacks the Panthers faced in the second half of the season, and their number of pass attempts. Tyler Shough (27), Michael Penix/Kirk Cousins (30), Brock Purdy (32), Matthew Stafford (28), Tyler Shough (32), Baker Mayfield (26), Sam Darnold (27) and Baker Mayfield (22). If you recall, the Panthers had one of the league's best run defenses early in the season, which is why we saw such high pass attempt totals. But CAR is having major issues defending the run, and the last time these two teams met Kyren Williams averaged 5.5 YPC, while Blake Corum netted a massive 11.6 YPC. The Rams backfield combined for 152 rushing yards on just 21 total carries. They were getting literally anything they wanted on the ground, and this has held true for other running backs against the Panthers as of late. As far as Stafford is concerned, many of the passes he threw against CAR back in Week 13 were forced from a play-calling perspective. Sean McVay has already suggested the Rams will be leaning on the run even more in this game. Don't get me wrong, Stafford loves his receivers but the strength of the Panthers defense is with their corners. Mike Jackson is making big plays and Jaycee Horn, who was not available in the previous meeting with LA, is back for this game. Stafford finished the season with 42 TDs to just 8 INTs, but two of those came against Carolina. It makes no sense for him to put the ball in the air and feed right into the strength of the Panthers defense. This is where all those turnovers came, and is exactly why they ended up losing that game. After rewatching their Week 13 matchup, I thought the Rams passed way too much and Stafford only threw the ball 28 times in that game. Now we are getting a line of 33.5. As I said earlier, since Week 9 no QB has thrown more than 32 passes vs the Panthers, and a big part of that has to do with Carolina's subpar run defense. Given everything I've broken down, I am fully confident this trend will continue, especially as the Rams should have a positive game script coming in as 10.5 point favorites. Let's face it, nobody in the NFC South deserved to make the playoffs, and the ONLY chance Carolina has to make this a competitive game is to control the time of possession and convert on 3rd and 4th down plays.

Suggested Bet:

Matthew Stafford u33.5 Pass Attempts (-106)

RB Kyren Williams

The Rams shredded Carolina's defense back in Week 13 for 156 yards on only 21 total carries. That's 7.4 YPC! In that game, Kyren Williams ran the ball 13 times for 72 yards, while Blake Corum logged 7 carries for 81 yards. Matthew Stafford took a knee heading into halftime to bring the total down by a yard. For the sake of not repeating myself, let me briefly summarize this. Matthew Stafford threw just 8 INTs all season, but two of those came against this Carolina team, and that was without Jaycee Horn on the field. Now he's back, and the Panthers corners are the team's biggest strength. Sean McVay has already hinted to the fact that the Rams will have an added focus in their running game this Saturday. We are getting a 64.5 rushing yards line in this game, and Carolina's rush defense has performed poorly down the stretch. Kyren averaged 5.5 YPC in their Week 13 meeting and the Panthers barely forced a negative run. In that regular season meeting Los Angeles had a 76% rushing success rate, averaging 0.53 EPA/rush...a 100th percentile performance! Moreover, the Rams averaged 3.05 yards before contact in that game and their inside run scheme will be a nightmare matchup for Carolina's defense. Outside of a decimated New Orleans backfield in Week 15, here are the rushing totals the Panthers have given up to feature RBs they've faced going back to Week 8. Bucky Irving (85), Zach Charbonnet (110), Bucky Irving (71), Kyren Williams (72), Christian McCaffrey (89), Bijan Robinson (104), Alvin Kamara (83), Josh Jacobs (87), James Cook (216). Williams has recorded 70+ rush yards in 7 of his last 9 games. One very important thing to know about Williams is that he's not a RB who is going to break off a ton of huge runs, but on the contrary he is rarely tackled behind the line of scrimmage. This gives us a huge edge because Kyren ranks first in success rate (62.9%) and 11th in YPC (4.83). But even more important, Carolina allows the 7th most adjusted yards before contact (2.36) and the 8th most rushing YPG (106.4) to opposing running backs. Lastly, Kyren Williams ranks 4th in success rate (62.1%) on man/gap runs, while the Panthers surrender the 11th most YPC (4.55) in this area. Even if he doesn't equal his 5.5 YPC average he had the last time these two teams met, the books agree with this Saturday's script, which suggests Kyren will see at least 14+ carries. And I think he could see anywhere from 16-18 before it's all said and done.

Suggested Bet:

Kyren Williams o64.5 Rush Yards (-121)

WR Puka Nacua

When these two teams last met in Week 13, Puka Nacua hauled in 6 balls for 72 yards, including a longest reception of 31. To the surprise of nobody, The NFL Offensive Player of the Year candidate led all Rams with 9 targets in that game. Puka has had eight or more receptions in 50% of his games played this season, and this includes 3 of his last 4 where he posted receiving totals of 10, 12, 5 and 9. In addition to the aforementioned game script, which lends itself to an increased emphasis in the running game, I also have reservations based on how Carolina was able to somewhat stymie Nacua back in Week 13. Furthermore, Jaycee Horn did not play in that game and he will be back for Saturday's Wild Card matchup. On the flip side, we have a Panthers team that ranks 24th in DVOA against WR1s compared to 1st against WR2s. Only six teams surrendered more yards to top receivers than Carolina this season. So there is certainly good reason to play Puka Nacua's receiving yards prop at o90.5, but given Saturday's suggested running script, the return of Jaycee Horn and how the Panthers limited Nacua in their first matchup, I'm going with the safer route here and playing his longest reception of 'Over' 27.5 yards...and for good reason. Dave Canales deploys zone coverage at the league's highest rate, and this poses a problem for Carolina against Puka, who led all NFL receivers with a 4.05 YPRR against zone. Nacua logged 460 YAC, placing him second against this scheme only to Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase. While Puka stayed under this benchmark in his last two regular season games, a pair of penalties in Atlanta erased completions that would have cleared this number. Prior to this, the Rams WR had longs of 58, 39, 32, 31 and 31 in five consecutive games. It's playoff time and for what it's worth, Puka Nacua has recorded postseason longs of 37 (at PHI) & 27 (vs MIN) in '24 and 50 (at DET) in '23. Having Davante Adams back in the lineup as an added decoy can only help him here.

Suggested Bet:

Puka Nacua o27.5 Longest Reception (-110)

WR Davante Adams

Let's not overcomplicate things here. Davante Adams is going to score a TD or two in Saturday's Wild Card game in Carolina, and it's a good thing because I have concerns with regard to his receiving yards prop. Certainly, nobody would be surprised if he does go off, but Carolina ranks 1st among all NFL teams in DVOA vs WR2s. Adams stil caught 4 of 5 targets for 58 yards and 2 TDs in that matchup, but we need to remember that he missed the last three weeks of the season while battling a hamstring injury. He appears to be healthy now, and the good news is the hamstring won't be an issue in the end zone. And speaking of which, when it comes to end zone and red zone targets, Davante Adams is the apple of Matthew Stafford's eye. He's looked his way 24 times in the end zone, which is the second most end zone targets since Mike Evans recorded 26 for Tampa Bay back in 2016. Despite playing 14 of 17 games this year, the veteran WR has caught 14 touchdown passes. He's found the end zone in 9 of his 14 games, while recording multiple TDs four times, one coming in Week 13 vs this very same Carolina team. Adams has already proven he can score with ease against this Panthers team, and this is a man who has registered at colossal 58.5% end zone target rate in '25. Take Davante for a touchdown score and maybe more!

Suggested Bet:

Davante Adams Anytime TD (-140)

Davante Adams 2+ ALT TDs (+450)

TE Tyler Higbee/Colby Parkinson

The Panthers have been an enigma as it relates to defending the tight end position. On one hand, Carolina has allowed the 12th fewest receptions per game (5.1) to the position. At the same time, they've somehow managed to allow the 8th most receiving YPG (63.7) to opposing TEs. Muddying the waters even more is the recent return of Tyler Higbee, who missed six games before returning to the lineup last Sunday where he caught 5 of 6 targets for 91 yards and a TD. Then you have Colby Parkinson, who has found the end zone 8 times in his last 9 games, including a 2-TD performance in the final game of the regular season. Higbee and Parkinson had 6 and 7 targets respectively in their Week 18 matchup vs Arizona. Both players can score in the end zone and provide nice value, especially with Davante Adams attracting the bulk of the attention. That said, Adams has the size and ability to score whenever he wants.This is pretty much a roll of the dice. The numbers appear to show that Higbee has the upperhand with regard to yardage, while Parkinson may have a slight edge in the end zone. Either could have a solid output on Saturday, but choosing the right guy is a roll of the dice. With that said, I would remind you this is the playoffs and Sean McVay's offense is going to center around Stafford, Williams, Nacua and Adams.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

QB Bryce Young

Last week I emphatically said I had ZERO faith in Bryce Young to deliver in a big game as a starting quarterback, and boy was that ever proven last week. The last time Young faced the Rams he completed 15 of 20 passes for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns. It turned out to be his highest passer rating of the season at 147.1. Interestingly enough, nearly all of his production came when he was under pressure. In that Week 13 matchup, Young was 6 of 6 for 150 yards and 3 TDs vs the blitz. You can bet Sean McVay will have that little nugget in his pocket come Wild Card Saturday. Bryce Young has been picked off 11 times this season, including each of his last two games. He will be making his first ever playoff start and even though the Panthers will be playing at home he is going to face a ton of pressure mentally. He played as perfect of a game as he is capable of playing and CAR still barely escaped with a victory. The Rams will still show some blitz packages, but they are going to allow him to sit back and beat himself, something Bryce Young knows all too well. The Los Angeles defense has forced the 6th most interceptions (16) to opposing QBs, and the Panthers will not get out in front of the Rams this time around, which is going to force Young to make plays out of the air. Home game or not, there is no way he's getting out of that stadium without throwing an interception on Saturday.

Suggested Bet:

Bryce Young o0.5 Interceptions (-120)

RB Rico Dowdle

Rico Dowdle (58) and Chuba Hubbard (83) combined for 141 rushing yards when these two teams met back in Week 13, but since that game the Panthers running game has been nonexistent and it simply cannot be trusted right now. Tampa Bay was a brick wall against the run last week, limiting Carolina to just 19 rushing yards for the entire game. However, there is value with Rico in the pass-catching game and what's nice about this prop is the Panthers are 10.5 point underdogs so this game script should favor a heavy pass approach from Carolina. Dowdle has led the Panthers backfield in route share in 7 of the last 9 games, including 3 straight. This has led to him averaging 22 receiving YPG over his last 7 games. He also logged 21 yards in this year's regular season matchup vs Los Angeles, who allows the 5th most receiving YPG (38.2) to opposing RBs. This season, 15 different running backs have cleared the 14.5 mark against the Rams, and they've allowed a RB to hit this mark in 8 of their last 9 games. With the liklihood of Carolina trailing in this one, Rico has a solid chance at picking up 3+ receptions, which should be more than enough to push him past this line.

Suggested Bet:

Rico Dowdle o14.5 Rec Yards (-116)

WR Tetairoa McMillan

There is no denying Tetairoa McMillan has had an excellent rookie campaign. A third of the way through the season it looked like Emeka Egbuka was going to run away with NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, but adversity struck beyond his control and McMillan has taken full advantage of the situation and now sits with odds of -320 to win the award. He finished the season with 70 catches for 1,014 yards and 7 TDs. Still, he numbers have stalled to end the year. In the last six games of the season, Tet posted reception totals of just 2, 1, 2, 6, 1 and 4. In a playoff game where every snap is amplified, I just cannot take my chances on his reception and receiving yards props. At the same time we all know he has the talent to break out for a big game, but that's also reliant on the arm of Bryce Young, and you all know what little confidence I have in him. Still, thee is a spot where I really like McMillan and that with his longest reception set at 22.5 yards. Despite a bit slow finish, he and QB Bryce Young have developed a strong connection with each other throughout the course of the season. In the last eight games of the season, Tet has posted longs of 40, 5, 22, 21, 43, 29, 39 and 26. So he's hit this in 5 of his last 8, but as you can see two of his misses have come just 1 and 2 yards short. Multiple factors lean into this play. First of all, with the Rams being a 10.5 point favorite it's more than this game script will benefit the passing game of Carolina. Secondly, the Rams have been highly suceptible to giving up explosive plays to wide receivers as of late. The following is a laundry list of WR long receptions vs the Rams: Michael Wilson (43), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (27), Amon-Ra St. Brown (52), Jameson Williams (31), Michael Wilson (25), Tetairoa McMillan (43), Jalen Coker (33), Emeka Egbuka (32), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (28), Jauan Jennings (22), Chris Olave (27), Rashid Shaheed (26), Dyami Brown (39), Travis Hunter (34), Parker Washington (25), Brian Thomas (24), Kenrick Bourne (35), Adonai Mitchell (75), A.J. Brown (38), Calvin Ridley (26), Elic Ayonmanor (23), Jayden Higgins (23) and Xavier Hutchinson (23). In all, the Rams have allowed at least one opposing WR to clear this mark in 15 of 17 regular season games. I will take my chances on this prop all day, every day.

Suggested Bet:

Tetairoa McMillan o22.5 Longest Reception (-120)

WR Jalen Coker

They don't call him "Coke Zero" for anything! Jalen Coker has not dropped a single pass this entire season, and I'm backing him once again this Saturday. He's cleared 37.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games, posting totals of 47, 16, 47, 60 and 74 yards, while getting 4+ targets in 6 of his past 7 games. The only under Coker had was a game in which Bryce Young threw for only 54 yards. When he faced the Rams back in Week 13, Coker hauled in 4 of 6 targets for 74 yards and a TD. Los Angeles has allowed the 10th most receiving yards to WRs this season, in particulary toward the end of the season, where we saw them allow a ton of yards through the air (6th most in last 5 weeks). Sanders will also be out for LA and with Carolina coming in as a 10.5 point dog, the Panthers will be forced to pass in this game, plus garbage time is also a real possibility here.

Suggested Bet:

Jalen Coker 37.5 Rec Yards (-119)

LAR is going out for blood today and they are not going to blitz like they did in the first game.They will sit back and let Young make mistakes. Rams in a route 

Best Bet: Rams -9.5 -110

Lean: Over 44.5 

Score Prediction: Rams 34 Panthers 13

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet (Rams): Kyren Williams -135

Even though the LA Rams offense has sputtered over the past few weeks, Kyren Williams has been a consistent source of production for HC Sean McVay. His offensive line has also played a huge role in his success this season as the Rams front five lead the league in Run Block Set Grade. This is a very favorable matchup for Williams who already found the end zone once this year in his Week 13 matchup vs Carolina. The Panthers have allowed 16 rushing TDs this season (t3rd most in NFL), and Kyren will be facing a front seven that ranks dead last in Run Defense Win Rate. With Davante Adams back, this will help stretch the secondary even more, thereby creating wider running lanes in the middle for Williams to exploit.

Longshot (Rams): Terrance Ferguson +875

Terrance Ferguson's odds have gotten quite steep with the return of Tyler Higbee. But he's still at worst the TE3, which in Sean McVay's offense is still good enough to get him 40-50% of the snaps. At best, he will be a TE2 and get a 60-80% snap share as he did near the end of the season. The thing about Ferguson you have to know is that he's a big-play threat every time he is on the field, where he averages 21.0 YPC and with even with Higbee and Parkinson both playing, he still scored touchdowns in each of his last two games. At +875, and with the way Stafford uses his tight ends, this is too good to pass up taking a flyer on.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Rams): Davante Adams +475

First, let's get one thing out of the way, and I'll be the first to admit if I'm wrong but I'm going on record and saying unless their is some kind of wild fluke, there is no way the Panthers are scoring the first touchdown in this game. In 17 regular season games, the Panthers found the end zone just seven times. They also rank dead last in the NFL in first quarter points scored, with an average of just 3.7. With that said, give me Davante Adams all day here. He played in 14 games this season and finished with 14 TD's. He's enters today's game coming off a hamstring injury, but that won't be an issue in the red zone or near the goal line. And remember, Adams logged two TD's the first time these two teams played, including the first one of the game. 

QB Jordan Love

Love returns to action in an extremely familiar matchup after exiting early with a concussion in Week 16. Prior to that injury, he had reached 234+ passing yards in three straight full games and accounted for multiple touchdowns in seven of 14 full starts, underscoring his ceiling when healthy. Chicago’s defensive structure plays directly into his strengths: the Bears deploy Cover 3 (28.7%) and Cover 2 (22.4%) on 51.1% of snaps, and Love averages 8.06 yards per attempt, a +5.6% CPOE, and 0.47 TDs per drive against those shells. Chicago has been especially vulnerable late, allowing 300+ passing yards in consecutive games and ranking third-worst in passing TDs allowed per game (1.9). Love already dismantled this unit in Week 14 with 234 yards and 3 TDs, and Green Bay showed no hesitation attacking vertically and off play-action. If protection holds even at an average level, this matchup profiles as one of Love’s better touchdown environments of the season.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Pass TDs (-120)

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs enters the postseason fresher after sitting out Week 18 and playing through a nagging injury late in the regular season. Despite the downturn in raw efficiency, he still scored in two of his last six games, and his role near the goal line has remained consistent. Chicago continues to struggle in the trenches, allowing the second-most adjusted yards before contact per rush (2.68) and the 10th-most rushing yards per game (104.2). In the first meeting, Jacobs handled 20 carries for 86 yards and a touchdown, while Green Bay leaned on him to close drives. Even in the rematch where his efficiency dipped, he still handled 12 carries before the offense stalled. With Love back under center improving red-zone efficiency, Jacobs remains the most likely Packer to finish drives on the ground.

Suggested Play

Anytime TD (-125)

WR Jayden Reed

Reed’s role remains highly stable, particularly against zone-heavy opponents. Chicago’s defensive profile is one of the more favorable slot matchups in the league, allowing the fourth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers (86.7) and the ninth-most receptions per game (6.8). Reed averages 2.58 yards per route run and a 0.21 targets-per-route rate against Cover 2 and Cover 3, and he has cleared 41+ scrimmage yards in every full game this season. In the earlier meeting with Love fully healthy, Reed contributed both as a receiver and runner, showing how Green Bay schematically manufactures touches for him. Even without explosive downfield usage, his short-area involvement gives him a high probability of clearing his receptions prop.

Suggested Play:
'O' 3.5 Receptions (+105)

WR Christian Watson

Watson is the matchup breaker in this game and remains Chicago’s biggest problem on the perimeter. Against Cover 2 and Cover 3, he averages 2.61 YPRR with a 0.25 TPRR, and the Bears allow the seventh-highest yards per reception (14.32) to outside receivers. Watson has reached 45+ receiving yards in eight of his last 10 games, and his red-zone involvement has increased since returning to full health. In Week 14, he torched Chicago for 4/89/2, repeatedly winning vertically and on extended plays. Green Bay’s willingness to isolate Watson deep and off play-action gives him multiple paths to a touchdown, making him the most dangerous scoring threat in the passing game.

Suggested Play

'O' 24.5 Longest Reception (-120)

Anytime TD (+155)

WR Romeo Doubs

Doubs’ production has been uneven, but the underlying efficiency metrics and matchup remain quietly favorable. Against Cover 2 and Cover 3, he averages 2.21 YPRR and a 0.19 TPRR, while Chicago allows the fourth-highest YPRR (2.14) to outside receivers. Although Doubs failed to connect with Love in Week 14, his 5/84/1 performance in Week 16—largely with Malik Willis—showed his ability to capitalize when coverage tilts elsewhere. With defensive attention likely shifting toward Watson, Doubs projects as a secondary perimeter option who can clear modest yardage totals on limited volume.

Suggested Play:
'O' 31.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

QB Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams faces a Green Bay defence that leans heavily on zone, running the 2nd-most zone coverage in the league (79.5%) and the fifth-most Cover 6 (15.5%). The Packers rank 12th in completions (21.2), 14th in attempts (32.2), yet allow the 10th fewest passing yards (206.8) and 12th fewest passing TDs (1.4) per game to opposing QBs. Against zone coverage, Williams has struggled with accuracy, posting the lowest completion percentage (59.8%) in the league while finishing the regular season middle-of-the-pack in both yards per attempt (7.27) and QBR (87.3). His efficiency is more of the same against Cover 6, where he ranks 5th lowest in completion percentage (61.4%) and 9th lowest in QBR (78), despite a strong yards per attempt mark (8.05). In the two previous games against the Packers this season, Williams averaged 19 completions, 34.5 pass attempts, 218 passing yards and two passing TDs. However, the playoffs are a different beast, and I'm not sure Williams will be ready for the task against this Packers pass defence. But with that in mind, that should result in Williams throwing more. He has cleared o31.5 pass attempts in nine of his last 10 games, averaging 34.5 per game.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams o31.5 Passing Attempts (-115)

RB D'Andre Swift

D’Andre Swift faces a Packers front that gives up the 6th most rush attempts (24.2) and the 13th most rushing yards (100.5) per game. Green Bay runs more zone concept (47.7%) compared to man/gap at (38.9%), and that's reflected in their yards per carry, as they allow 4.56 yards per carry when in zone and a 3.88 in man/gap. Swift has been efficient against both looks all season. He averages 5.27 yards per carry against zone and 4.16 against man/gap. Through the air, Green Bay does well to limit receiving yards to backs, averaging the 8th fewest receiving yards (26.9), but allows volume, allowing the 11th most receptions (4.6) per game. Against the Packers this season, Swift had 13 rush attempts in both outings, rushing for 63 and 58 yards. Through the air, he caught five of his six targets, averaging 15.5 receiving yards per game. With Kyle Monangai working more into the rushing production, we like Swift to make more of a difference in the passing game.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift 2+ Receptions (-185)

WR DJ Moore

DJ Moore matches up with a Green Bay secondary that limits wide receiver volume, allowing the 15th fewest receptions (11) and the 14th fewest receiving yards (135.1) per game. Moore has been productive against zone, catching 40 passes on 63 targets for 574 yards with a (14.8%) target share, while his role expands significantly versus Cover 6, where he leads the team with a (19.3%) target share on 7 receptions for 111 yards. Moore is more efficient in zone coverage with a higher catch rate (63.3%) and yards per route run (1.12), though his yards per reception dips to (12.6). He aligns out wide on (65.6%) of his snaps but spent (56.7%) of his routes in the slot in Week 18, a key note against a Green Bay defense that allows the lowest target rate but the highest catch rate (76%) and the third lowest yards per reception (8.97). The matchup points to efficiency on short and intermediate routes rather than downfield volume.

Suggested pick:

Pass

WR Luther Burden

Luther Burden profiles well against Green Bay’s secondary, which limits WR volume, allowing the 15th fewest receptions (11) and the 14th fewest receiving yards (135.1) per game. Against zone, Burden has recorded 36 receptions on 45 targets for 503 yards with a 12.1% target share. He also sees his elite catch rate (84.6%) and a strong yards per route run (3.17), increase in zone compared to man. His Cover 6 usage is less attractive, as he's caught just five of his seven targets for 34 yards with a 16.3% target share. Burden aligns out wide on 53.5% of his snaps. Green Bay is targeted at the 8th highest rate, allowing the 6th highest catch rate (65.9%), and a middle-of-the-pack yards per reception (12.94). Burden missed their most recent game against the Packers, but in Week 14, Burden turned his six targets into four receptions for 67 receiving yards. Even with Rome Odunze coming back, I think Burden has done enough for his volume to remain. Plus, his receiving yards line has dipped far too low.

Suggested pick:

Luther Burden o37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Colston Loveland

Well, Colston Loveland broke out last week when he caught 10 balls for 91 receiving yards and a TD. The Packers defence allows the 14th most receptions (5.5) but the 6th fewest receiving yards (44.7) per game to opposing TEs. Against zone coverage, Loveland has been a steady contributor with 42 receptions on 59 targets for 579 yards and a 15.1% target share. He sees his catch rate (70.6%), yards per reception (12.8) and yards per route run (1.93) all massively increase in zone compared to man. Like Burden, Loveland's usage against Cover 6 isn't rich, but is efficient. He's caught five of six targets for 105 yards with an 11.8% target share. Loveland runs 42.3% of his snaps inline, to which Green Bay is targeted at the 13th highest rate, allowing a middle-of-the-pack catch rate (75.4%), but the 2nd lowest yards per reception (7.35). Loveland has seen 5+ targets in both games against the Packers this season, resulting in seven receptions but for just 59 receiving yards. Loveland's involvement continues to increase, so we'll take that angle, rather than his receiving yards in this tough matchup.

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland o4.5 Receptions (+120)

Keeping this one short. I think the Packers have more adjustments they can make to disrupt the Bears offense after playing each other 2x. 

Best Bet - Packers -2.5 -120
Lean - Under 47.5 -150
Score Prediction Packers 24 Bears 17

Anytime TD Scorer 

Best Bet (Packers) Josh Jacobs Anytime TD -125

Josh Jacobs enters the postseason fresher after sitting out Week 18 and playing through a nagging injury late in the regular season. Despite the downturn in raw efficiency, he still scored in two of his last six games, and his role near the goal line has remained consistent. Chicago continues to struggle in the trenches, allowing the second-most adjusted yards before contact per rush (2.68) and the 10th-most rushing yards per game (104.2). In the first meeting, Jacobs handled 20 carries for 86 yards and a touchdown, while Green Bay leaned on him to close drives. Even in the rematch where his efficiency dipped, he still handled 12 carries before the offense stalled. With Love back under center improving red-zone efficiency, Jacobs remains the most likely Packer to finish drives on the ground.

Best Pick: (Bears): Rome Odunze TD (+210)

As mentioned, Odunze is making his return to action, and I think they're going to get their usual No. 1 receiver's confidence up with a TD in an important game. Odunze had a hot scoring stretch to start the year, but went cold with just one TD in his last five games. The Packers are also allowing over a TD per game to the WR position, which is a top-5 rate.

First TD

Longshot (Packers) Christian Watson First TD +880

Watson profiles as the most likely player to strike first in this matchup given Green Bay’s scripted tendencies and Chicago’s coverage weaknesses. The Bears open games heavily in Cover 2 and Cover 3 (51.1% combined), shells Watson has consistently punished with explosive plays, averaging 2.61 yards per route run and commanding a 25% targets-per-route rate against those looks. Chicago also allows one of the highest yards per reception figures to outside receivers (14.32), making them vulnerable early before adjustments tighten. In Week 14, Watson scored twice against this same defense, including an early vertical touchdown that came off play-action and isolation coverage—both staples of Green Bay’s opening script. With Jordan Love back under center and the Packers likely looking to test Chicago deep early to set the tone, Watson stands out as the best combination of early target priority, explosive ability, and red-zone usage, giving him a strong case to open the scoring.

Parlay 1 (Packers) +465
Josh Jacobs ATD
Jordan Love 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs
Romeo Doubs 'O' 31.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay 1: (Bears) +200 odds on bet365

Caleb Williams 30+ Pass Attempts

D'Andre Swift 2+ Receiving Yards

Colston Loveland 4+ Receptions

QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen averages 215.8 passing yards per game, 7.97 YPA and a 69.3% completion rate. He’s thrown for 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The Bills have the 5th highest run rate over expected on the season, but will face a Jags defense that has been a pass funnel, forcing the 2nd highest pass rate over expected. The Jaguars rank 2nd best in EPA/Pass but have allowed the 12th most passing yards per game. They may be a bit overrated, as they faced the 2nd easiest passing opponents on the season. On the season, the Jaguars play zone coverage at the 4th highest rate (78.2%) and two-high at the 9th highest rate (53.7%). Against zone coverage, Josh Allen averages 8.51 YPA, a 73.2% completion rate and a 107.3 QB rating. Against two-high, he averages 8.04 YPA, a 71.9% completion rate and a 109.6 QB rating. In terms of the running game, Josh is averaging 7 attempts per game for 36.2 rushing yards and 14 TDs. He typically ramps up his rushing in playoff games, as he has at least 8 attempts in 5 straight playoff games, averaging 50.2 rushing yards per game. The Jags allow the 11th fewest rushing yards per game but the 7th most rushing TDs.

Suggested Pick:
Anytime Touchdown (-105)

RB James Cook

James Cook leads the league in rushing yards and averages 95.4 rushing yards per game on 5.25 YPC. He has 12 rushing touchdowns. He’ll face a Jaguars defense that ranks 8th best in EPA/Rush and has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (85.6). The Bills have the 5th highest run rate over expected on the season, but will face a Jags defense that has been a pass funnel, forcing the 2nd highest pass rate over expected. The Jags also force the 2nd lowest explosive run rate (2.7%). They are specifically tough against man/gap run concepts, allowing the 3rd fewest YPC (3.36). That compares to the 14th fewest YPC to zone concept (4.22). Cook has a 50-50 split between the 2 concepts, but has been more effective in zone concept, averaging 5.48 YPC compared to 5.01 YPC in man/gap. In terms of the receiving game, Cook’s involvement has been hit or miss. He averages 1.9 targets for 17.1 receiving yards per game. The Jags allow the 13th most receiving yards and the 8th most receptions to RBs. Cook is averaging 82.4 rushing yards per game on 17.8 attempts in his last 5 playoff games.

Suggested Pick:

Under 18.5 Rush Attempts (-129)

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir is averaging 4.5 receptions, 5.9 targets and 44.9 receiving yards per game this season. He’s been targeted on 23% of his routes and leads the team in 1st-read rate at 23.5%. This game has a massive 52.5 implied total, and the Bills are just 1.5-point favorites, Vegas is expecting a competitive game with offense. The Bills face a Jags defense that has been a pass funnel, forcing the 2nd highest pass rate over expected on the season. The Jags have allowed the 5th most targets to the slot on the season, where Shakir has lined up on 70% of his routes. The Jags have played zone coverage at the 4th highest rate (78.2%). Shakir has positive splits against zone coverage, averaging 1.93 YPRR and a 1st-read rate of 26.4%. Shakir’s top 4 routes in terms of receptions are screen (16), shallow cross (14), flat (12) and slant (11). Against these 4 routes, the Jags have allowed the most receptions and most targets in the NFL this season. Shakir is Allen’s most trusted receiver and I expect Josh to look his way a lot in what should be the game of the weekend.

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (-109)

6+ Receptions (+178)

7+ Receptions (+320)

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid has been a limited participant in practice this week and I’d expect him to play this wild card weekend. He is averaging 47.6 receiving yards per game, 3.19 YPRR, has been targeted on 27% of his routes and has a 1st-read rate of 17.3%. The only knock on Kincaid has been that he’s only run a route on 44.2% of dropbacks. He’ll face a Jaguars defense that ranks 2nd best in EPA/Pass but have allowed the 12th most receiving yards per game.The Bills have the 5th highest run rate over expected on the season, but will face a Jags defense that has been a pass funnel, forcing the 2nd highest pass rate over expected. The Jags allow the 9th most receiving yards per game to TE. On the season, the Jaguars play zone coverage at the 4th highest rate (78.2%) and two-high at the 9th highest rate (53.7%). Against zone coverage, Kincaid averages 3.91 YPRR and 30% TPRR. Against two-high, Kincaid averages 3.41 YPRR and 31% TPRR. 

Suggested Pick

Over 1.5 1Q Receiving Yards (-113)

10+ 1Q Receiving Yards (+129)

15+ 1Q Receiving Yards (+196)

20+ 1Q Receiving Yards (+290)

25+ 1Q Receiving Yards (+439)

30+ 1Q Receiving Yards (+610)

Anytime Touchdown (+250)

QB Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence was on fire to finish the 2025 regular season. Since the Week 8 bye, Lawrence is averaging the 7th highest yards per pass attempt (8.0) with a 6.5% touchdown rate (4th). Comparatively, He ranked 26th in both of those stat categories prior to week 8. Lawrence has also had an excellent season as a rusher, something he’s flashed at times but never committed too. He finished 2025 with 82 carries for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns. His previous rushing touchdown high was 5. On paper, Buffalo is not a great matchup through the air. They have allowed the fewest passing yards this season (2,894). However, they are also allowing the 5th most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season (368). We have seen this Bills defense limit good quarterbacks, including Drake maye (155 passing yards, 0 passing touchdowns, 1 interception) and Patrick Mahomes (250 yards, 0 passing touchdowns and 1 interception). However, they allowed a few good rushing quarterback games in the last four weeks of the regular season. Maye rushed 4 times for 43 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Shedeur Sanders ran 4 times for 49 yards. Lawrence is probably a better runner than both of those quarterbacks. There is some hope for him as a passer, though. Buffalo runs a lot of two-high coverages (8th highest rate in the league). Lawrence owns the 3rd best passing grade against two-high this season. Still, I’m not dying to back Trevor as a passer here. However, his rushing yards look like a play that has ladder potential.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 25.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
30+ Rushing Yards (+124)
40+ Rushing Yards (+260)
50+ Rushing Yards (+490)

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
This matchup sets up really well for Etienne if Jacksonville can establish the rush. Buffalo is allowing the 5th most rushing yards per game (136.2), 3rd highest yards per carry (5.14) and 5th highest explosive run rate (6.2%). They’ve given up some monster games on the ground this season - TreVeyon Henderson (14 carries for 148 yards, 2 TD’s), Sean Tucker (19 for 106, 2 TD’s), Devon Achane (22 for 174, 2 TD’s), Bijan Robinson (19 for 170, TD) and Derrick Henry (18 for 169, 2 TD’s). The Jags should continue to lean on Etienne as the primary back, including in the endzone. He ranks 8th among running backs with 26 carries inside the 10-yard line. Buffalo has allowed the most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this season (18). His rushing line seems right, given the matchup, but Buffalo has also held some running backs in check. If Jacksonville finds themselves playing from behind, they could abandon the rushing game to some degree. I like Etienne to find the endzone at least once here.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown (-125)

WR Jakobi Meyers
Meyers gave us a pretty typical outcome for him last week in the romping of the Titans. A solid reception game with little yardage to show for it. He caught 5 passes on 6 targets for 44 yards. He’s only eclipsed 50 receiving yards once in his last 5 games. However, he’s had 4+ receptions in his last 8 games. Of course, as we discussed this is a tough matchup through the air for Jacksonville. They are allowing the fewest receiving yards per game (170.2), 8th lowest yards per reception (10.45) and 6th lowest catch rate (66.1%). Meyers just isn’t an explosive player and in a tough matchup it’s tough to back him. We could see a negative game script here, with with a tough matchup and several weapons at Lawrence’s disposal, I’ll fade Meyers’ receiving yards.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Parker Washington
I know, I typically talk about Brian Thomas Jr. here, but we can’t ignore what Parker Washington has done of late. Here are the stats for his last three games: 5 catches on 9 targets for 87 yards (TD), 8 on 10 for 115 yards and 6 on 10 for 145 yards (TD). Buffalo is also stingy to slot wide receivers, where Washington plays the most out of (10th fewest passing yards per game). However, he is an explosive player and has really acted as the wide receiver one in this offense over the past several weeks. Washington can be a menace in the open field and Buffalo is more susceptible to yardage after the catch (ranked 16th) out of the slot. He’s definitely not a guy that I’m looking to fade and with a modest yardage line, I’ll take his over.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 49.5 Receiving Yards

TE Brenton Strange
Strange is coming off a nice game to finish up a strong 2025. He caught 6 balls on 6 targets for 52 yards and a touchdown. He’s had 50+ receiving yards in each of his last two, with two touchdowns over his last 3 games. On the season, he’s averaging a 15% target share, 78.0% catch rate and 11.74 yards per reception. He gets a tough matchup this week against Buffalo. The Bills are allowing the fewest targets (4.47) per game, receptions (2.71) and yards (29.6) to opposing tight ends this season. We’ve seen quality tight ends kept in check over the last four weeks, such as Dallas Goedert (3 catches for 8 yards), Harold Fannin (1 catch for 1 yard) and Hunter Henry (1 catch for 18 yards). This isn’t the spot to back Strange and I really like the idea of fading him here.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

If there is a time where the Bills make a run it's now. Give me Bills ML 

Best Bet - Bills ML +105
Lean - Over 50.5
Score Prediction Bills 30 Jags 24

Anytime TD Scorer

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) +250

Kincaid has scored a touchdown in 5 of 11 games excluding week 18 against the Jets. He’ll face a Jags defense that has allowed the 12th most receiving touchdowns to TE, and Kincaid has positive splits against the Jags preferred schemes (zone and two-high). The Jags have forced the 2nd highest pass rate over expected this season so going with receiving over rushing touchdowns.

Best Bet (Jaguars) Travis Etienne -125
This spot sets up so well for Etienne, who has scored 6 touchdowns in his last 5 games. Buffalo is allowing the 5th most rushing yards per game (136.2), 3rd highest yards per carry (5.14) and 5th highest explosive run rate (6.2%). They’ve given up some monster games on the ground this season - TreVeyon Henderson (14 carries for 148 yards, 2 TD’s), Sean Tucker (19 for 106, 2 TD’s), Devon Achane (22 for 174, 2 TD’s), Bijan Robinson (19 for 170, TD) and Derrick Henry (18 for 169, 2 TD’s). The Jags should continue to lean on Etienne as the primary back, including in the endzone. He ranks 8th among running backs with 26 carries inside the 10-yard line. Buffalo has allowed the most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this season (18).

First TD Scorer

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) +1700

Same analysis as anytime, 3 of Kincaid’s 5 touchdowns this season have been in the first quarter. The first quarter has always been his most productive quarter, so love the value here!

Longshot (Jaguars) Trevor Lawrence +1200
Tevor is having a career rushing year with 9 rushing touchdowns this season. Four of those touchdowns have come in the last four weeks!  The Bills are also allowing the 5th most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season (368) and have allowed four rushing touchdowns this season, including two recently to Drake Maye. I certainly don’t think he’s going to tone down the rushing in this game when it matters most, especially given the tough matchup.

Parlay #1 (Bills) +1800

Dalton Kincaid 15+ 1Q Receiving Yards
Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown
Khalil Shakir 6+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Jaguars) +765

Trevor Lawrence TD
Brenton Strange under 36.5 Receiving Yards
Travis Etienne TD

QB Brock Purdy

Purdy enters the Wild Card round coming off a sharp statistical whiplash. From Weeks 15–17, he averaged 316.7 passing yards, 3.3 TDs, and 9.0 YPA, but Philadelphia completely flips the difficulty curve. The Eagles allow just 204.5 passing YPG and a league-low 0.8 passing TDs per game, with multiple passing TDs surrendered only three times all season. Against the Cover 3/Cover 6 shells Philadelphia leans on (50.2%), Purdy has been efficient (8.52 YPA, +7.6% CPOE), but efficiency hasn’t translated into volume against elite pass-rush units. Philly ranks top-five in pressure rate without blitzing, which limits explosive plays and red-zone dropbacks. Given the Eagles’ ability to collapse pockets while keeping safeties deep, Purdy profiles more as a game manager than a ceiling passer in this spot, making unders the sharper angle.

Suggested Play:

'U' 226.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Christian McCaffery

McCaffrey’s Week 18 usage dip looks more like game-script noise than a role change. He still finished the season with 413 total touches, 100+ receptions, and 24.5 yards per game from scrimmage, remaining the engine of San Francisco’s offense. Philadelphia’s front has been strong against interior rushing (1.81 adjusted YBC/ATT), but they quietly allow the sixth-most receiving yards to RBs (37.6 per game). That matters against a QB-contain defense designed to take away downfield throws. Expect Shanahan to lean into angle routes, screens, and option looks to neutralize pressure and slow the pass rush. McCaffrey also handled 86% of snaps last week, confirming there’s no usage concern. Even if rushing efficiency is modest, his hybrid workload keeps the yardage floor high.

Suggested Play:
'O' 107.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Jauan Jennings

Jennings’ touchdown streak (scores in 7 of his last 9 games) masks a tightening path to volume in this matchup. Philadelphia allows the second-fewest TDs to outside WRs (5) and ranks top-10 in limiting boundary targets when playing Cover 6. Against those coverages, Jennings averages just 1.48 YPRR with a modest 19% targets-per-route rate, and his Week 18 usage reflected that ceiling (4/35 on 6 targets). With Kittle back and McCaffrey soaking up short-area usage, Jennings’ production becomes touchdown-dependent — a risky profile against a defense that excels in the red zone.

Suggested Play:
'U' 45.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE George Kittle

Kittle’s return from injury last week showed full participation (88% route share) but muted output (5/29 on 7 targets), and this matchup is as restrictive as it gets for tight ends. Philadelphia allows just 29.8 receiving YPG and 3.9 receptions per game to the position — both second-best in the league. While Kittle remains hyper-efficient versus Cover 3/Cover 6 (2.79 YPRR), the Eagles’ linebackers and safeties excel at limiting yards after catch, which is normally Kittle’s bread and butter. Unless game script forces heavy volume, this projects as a usage-stable but production-capped spot.

Suggested Play:
'U' 59.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

QB Jalen Hurts

After sitting out in Week 18, Jalen Hurts is all rested and ready to go for this match against the San Francisco 49ers defence that allows the 2nd-most completions (23.4) and 8th-most pass attempts (34.4) per game, the 10th most passing yards (241.8) and 11th in passing touchdowns (1.7) – not a very formidable matchup. San Francisco is heavily zone-oriented, running the 8th most zone coverage (76.3%) and the 5th most Cover 3 (38.3%). Hurts has been mid against zone, posting a middle-tier completion percentage (68.9%), yards per attempt (7.41), and QBR (94.2). Against Cover 3 specifically, his completion percentage drops to the 11th lowest mark (65%), but offsets that with solid efficiency with a 7.84 yards per attempt and a strong QBR (95), both ranking 14th highest. Hurts hasn't been using his legs as much this season, but that won't factor heavily into this matchup, as the 49ers allow the 4th fewest rushing yards (13.2) per game to opposing QBs. This is a great matchup for Hurts and the Eagles to get their offence back on track. That said, if they are able to figure it out, that should lead to less volume in terms of pass attempts from Hurts – could see them rely on the next guy we're going to talk about a bit more.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts u29.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

RB Saquon Barkley

"Nowww heeeeres a guy" we're thinking might have a big day. Saquon Barkley faces a San Francisco front that allows the 10th fewest rush attempts (20.7) and the 14th fewest rushing yards (93.1) per game on the season. However, over the last month, the 49ers have allowed the 11th highest yards per carry (4.8), the 2nd most explosive run rate (8%) and 7th most rushing TDs (5). Their rush defence has gotten FAR worse. The 49ers run more man/gap concept (46.9%) than zone (38.4%), and their run defence reflects that split, allowing just 4.01 yards per carry against man/gap but a much softer 4.83 yards per carry versus zone. Barkley’s recent performance mirrors that profile, averaging 3.96 yards per carry against zone and a stronger 4.25 against man/gap. Even through the air, Barkley could be in line for a big day, as the 49ers allow the 2nd most receptions (5.5) and the 10th most receiving yards (35.7) to RBs. For that reason, we would typically lean toward the rush and receiving yards. However, four of the last five games Barkley has finished with ZERO receiving yards. So, we'll just keep it safe with the rushing yards.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley 80+ Rushing Yards (-125)

WR AJ Brown

AJ Brown steps into a favourable matchup against a San Francisco secondary that allows the 9th-most receptions (12) and the 11th-most receiving yards (149.1) per game. Brown has been the focal point of the passing attack against both of the coverage types San Francisco uses most. Against zone, he has hauled in 53 receptions on 79 targets for 662 yards while commanding a massive (25.4%) target share, which leads the team. That role expands against Cover 3, where he owns a dominant (30.8%) target share, resulting in 28 receptions for 379 yards. Brown is more efficient in zone coverage in terms of catch rate (65.3%), but his yards per reception (12.8) and yards per route run (1.95) dip slightly compared to his man splits. Alignment-wise, Brown lines up out wide on an overwhelming 88.4% of snaps, matching up against a defence that is targeted at a middle-of-the-pack rate, the 5th-highest catch rate (66.3%), but the fourth-lowest yards per reception (12.1). Don't get me wrong, he's been the better Eagles WR of late, and truly is looking like the AJ Brown of old. However, we kind of side with his slimer teammate for this matchup.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown u5.5 Receptions (-130)

WR Devonta Smith

DeVonta Smith profiles extremely well against San Francisco’s zone-heavy approach. Against zone coverage, Smith has produced 57 receptions on 77 targets for 815 yards with a strong 22.2% target share. He has been just as impactful against Cover 3, catching 26 of his 35 targets for 398 yards and a 24% target share. Smith’s efficiency peaks against zone, where he has a high catch rate (74.6%), yards per reception (14.0), and yards per route run (2.12) than that of his man splits. Smith operates primarily from the slot, logging 57.9% of his snaps inside. The 49ers defence allows the 2nd-highest target rate, 11th-highest catch rate (71.9%), and 12th-highest yards per reception (11.23) to slot receivers. The coverage and alignment lines up nicely for Smith to be the focal point of the Eagles' pass game this week.

Suggested pick:

DeVonta Smith o54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert gets a San Francisco defence that allows decent TE production, allowing the 9th most receptions (5.8) and the 13th most receiving yards (56.9) per game to the position. Goedert has been particularly effective against zone coverage, catching 46 of 60 targets for 497 yards with a healthy 19.4% target share. His role grows slightly against Cover 3, where he owns a 20.7% target share with 20 receptions for 230 yards. Goedert is more efficient in zone, posting a higher catch rate (78.4%), yards per reception (10.6), and yards per route run (1.47) than his numbers against man. Like Smith, Goedert aligns in the slot on (48.5%) of his snaps, which lines up nicely for him to bounce back a bit after a three-reception, eight-receiving-yard outing against the Bills in Week 17.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert o3.5 Receptions (-170)

49ers are clicking right now and I've got my concerns with Philly. Way too many points here in my opinion 

Best Bet - Over 44.5 -110
Lean - 49ers +7.5 -140
Score Prediction 49ers 23 Eagles 27

Anytime TD Scorer 

Best Bet (49ers) George Kittle Anytime TD +165
While Philadelphia has done an excellent job suppressing tight end volume, they’ve still been vulnerable to high-leverage tight end targets in the red zone, particularly off play-action and misdirection. Kittle finished the regular season with 7 touchdowns in 11 games, and he’s long been Purdy’s preferred option near the goal line when defenses overcommit to McCaffrey. Even last week, in a game where his yardage was limited, Kittle still saw seven targets and ran routes on nearly every dropback, confirming his role hasn’t changed. Against an Eagles defense that prioritizes taking away explosive outside plays, Kittle remains the most likely pass-catcher to convert a short-field opportunity into six points.

Best Pick: (Eagles): Saquon Barkley TD (+105)

After failing to find the end zone in his previous game in Week 17, Barkley is primed to find the end zone again. Before that game, he had scored in three straight weeks, and now the 49ers' rush defence, which doesn't have Fred Warner back just yet, has allowed over a TD per game on the ground to opposing RBs.

First TD

Best Bet (49ers) Christian McCaffery First TD +465

San Francisco’s red-zone identity still runs directly through McCaffrey, even in difficult matchups. He led the league in total touches (413) and finished top-three in red-zone opportunities, while accounting for the first touchdown in a game six times this season. Against Philadelphia, the 49ers are far more likely to script an opening drive around ball control, screens, and quick hitters to neutralize the Eagles’ pass rush rather than asking Brock Purdy to attack vertically early. That approach consistently funnels early red-zone touches to McCaffrey, who handles both goal-line carries and designed pass concepts inside the 10. Even in games where his overall efficiency dipped, McCaffrey remained the primary “get-right” option near the goal line, making him the most logical candidate to open the scoring if San Francisco strikes first.

Parlay #1 (49ers): +380

Christian McCaffery ATD
Brock Purdy 'U' 226.5 Pass Yards
Jauan Jennings 'U' 45.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay 1: (Eagles) +210 odds on bet365

Philadelphia Eagles ML

Saquon Barkley 70+ Rushing Yards

DeVonta Smith 50+ Receiving Yards

QB Justin Herbert

Herbert enters the postseason coming off a lighter late-season workload, resting in the finale after attempting more than 29 passes just twice over his final nine regular-season games. The Chargers have leaned toward efficiency and game control rather than volume, and that trend is reinforced by a Patriots defense that limits explosive passing outcomes. New England plays Cover 3 and Cover 1 at a combined 51.8% rate, and Herbert averages 7.43 yards per attempt with only a 2% CPOE against those looks, numbers that align more with steady chain-moving than spike production. The Patriots have allowed multiple passing touchdowns just once over their last seven games and rank top-10 in fewest passing yards allowed per game, suggesting a capped ceiling through the air. Herbert’s mobility still adds a layer of efficiency, but this profiles as a lower-volume passing environment unless New England forces an aggressive script.

Suggested Play:
'U' 1.5 Pass TDs (-130)

RB Omarion Hampton

Hampton’s role has stabilized when healthy, handling 12+ carries in eight of nine games and commanding a strong snap share whenever active. His usage expanded late in the year, including eight receptions in his last appearance, but the matchup is far less forgiving. New England ranks top-five in fewest rushing yards allowed and has consistently limited early-down efficiency, holding opponents to just 2.12 adjusted yards before contact per attempt. While the Patriots did allow rushing scores in three straight games prior to Week 18, those came against more physical rushing attacks. Hampton’s ankle injury further clouds expectations, and if the Chargers rotate backs at all, his touchdown equity becomes fragile.

Suggested Play:

'U'  Rush Yards (if he plays)

WR Ladd McConkey

McConkey’s usage remains steady from a routes perspective, but production has dried up dramatically, failing to clear 43 receiving yards in six consecutive games. The Patriots are particularly strong against slot receivers, ranking top-10 in fewest slot receiving yards and limiting yards per route run to 1.86 in those alignments. Against Cover 3 and Cover 1, McConkey averages just 1.61 YPRR with modest target involvement, and New England has allowed very little after the catch in the middle of the field. This shapes up as another game where McConkey contributes situationally but struggles to produce chunk gains.

Suggested Play:
'U' 18.5 Longest Reception (-120)

WR Quentin Johnston

Johnston has finally translated opportunity into production, clearing 98 receiving yards in back-to-back games after an extended midseason slump. His success has come primarily on vertical and intermediate boundary routes, which aligns with where the Patriots are more willing to concede yardage. New England allows nearly 97 receiving yards per game to outside receivers, and Johnston averages 1.97 YPRR against Cover 3 and Cover 1, both staples of this defense. While touchdown opportunities remain volatile, his recent route confidence and target depth give him the best explosive profile among Chargers wideouts.

Suggested Play:
'O' 35.5  Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Oronde Gadsden

Gadsden’s role has trended down since the Chargers’ Week 12 bye, finishing with two or fewer receptions in four of six games and rarely serving as a primary read. The Patriots are disciplined against tight ends, allowing league-average volume but limiting red-zone efficiency and yards after catch. Even though Gadsden’s efficiency metrics versus Cover 3 and Cover 1 are respectable, his route share and target priority simply haven’t supported consistent output. In a playoff setting where New England tightens coverage underneath, Gadsden profiles more as a blocker and outlet than a focal point.

Suggested Play:
'U' 2.5 Receptions (-120)

QB Drake Maye

Maye is averaging 258.5 passing yards per game, 8.93 YPA and a 72% completion rate. He’s thrown 31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He’ll face a Chargers defense that ranks 11th best in EPA/Pass but has allowed the 5th fewest passing yards per game (179.9). The Chargers blitz at a bottom 3 rate (20.4%) but pressure the QB at a top 12 rate (39.2%). When not blitzed, Maye averages 8.87 YPA, a 73% completion rate and a 106 QB rating. The Chargers run two-high at the 2nd highest rate (58.2%) and zone coverage at the 9th highest rate (76.1%). Maye has negative splits against two-high, averaging 7.41 YPA, a 69.2% completion rate and a 104.6 QB rating. Maye has mixed splits against zone coverage, averaging 8.78 YPA, a 74.3% completion rate and a 102.8 QB rating. In the running game, Maye averages 6.1 attempts for 26.5 rushing yards per game. This will be Maye’s 1st career playoff game, where QBs tend to use their legs more as games get more competitive. The Chargers have been middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed to QB this season. Maye has the athletic ability to run if given the opportunity, wouldn’t be surprised if we see an uptick here in the playoffs.

Suggested Pick:

Over 270.5 Pass + Rushing Yards (-115)

RB Treveyon Henderson

Since week 8, Henderson is averaging 75.8 rushing yards per game on 5.53 YPC. He’s rushed for 8 TDs and has an impressive 7.3% explosive run rate during this time. He’ll face a Chargers defense that ranks 2nd best in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 8th fewest rushing yards per game (105.4). Despite being strong against the run, the Chargers have allowed the 11th highest explosive run rate (5%). Since week 8, 31.4% of Treveyon’s attempts have been zone concept. He’s been more efficient in this concept, averaging 6.07 YPC and a 55.8% success rate. 65% of his attempts have been man/gap, where he’s averaging 5.09 YPC and a 50.6% success rate. The Chargers allow the 12th fewest YPC (4.11) and the 17th lowest success rate against zone concept (47.8%). They allow the 15th fewest YPC (4.24) but the 7th highest success rate against man/gap. Despite a 50-50 split in the run game as of late, Stevenson has been the preferred pass catching back. Since week 13, Rhamondre has a 59.9% route participation rate to Henderson’s 27.3%. The Chargers have allowed the 4th fewest receiving yards and 5th fewest receptions to RB. I am not targeting either back in the receiving game. 

Suggested Pick:

Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

WR Stefon Diggs

On the season, Diggs is averaging 59.6 receiving yards per game, 2.53 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. He leads the team in 1st-read rate at 22.1%. He’ll face a Chargers defense that ranks 11th best in EPA/Pass but has allowed the 5th fewest receiving yards per game (179.9). However, they have faced the 2nd easiest schedule to date in terms of passing games, so these statistics may be overstated. Diggs has lined up in the slot on 53.9% of his routes and out wide on 45.9%. The Chargers allow the 5th fewest YPRR to wide + slot alignment (1.69). The Chargers blitz at a bottom 3 rate (20.4%) but pressure the QB at a top 12 rate (39.2%). Diggs averages 2.62 YPRR and 23% TPRR when Maye is not blitzed. The Chargers run two-high at the 2nd highest rate (58.2%) and zone coverage at the 9th highest rate (76.1%). Diggs averages 2.24 YPRR, 26% TPRR and a 26.5% 1st-read rate against two-high. Against zone, Diggs averages 2.55 YPRR, 25% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 21%. Diggs has raised his game in the biggest games of the season and I expect that to be the case again here in Drake Maye’s 1st career playoff game.

Suggested Pick:

Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

TE Hunter Henry

Henry is averaging 4 receiving yards per game, 1.3 YPRR, 19% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 18.5%. He’ll face a Chargers defense that ranks 11th best in EPA/Pass but has allowed the 5th fewest receiving yards per game (179.9). However, they have faced the 2nd easiest schedule to date in terms of passing games, so these statistics may be overstated. Henry has lined up in the slot on 47% of his routes and inline on 34.3%. The Chargers allow the 13th fewest YPRR to the slot + inline alignment (1.74). The Chargers blitz at a bottom 3 rate (20.4%) but pressure the QB at a top 12 rate (39.2%). When Maye is not blitzed, Henry averages 1.66 YPRR, 17% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 17.5%. The Chargers run two-high at the 2nd highest rate (58.2%) and zone coverage at the 9th highest rate (76.1%). Henry has negative splits against two-high, averaging 1.08 YPRR, 16% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 15.4%. Against zone, Hunter averages 1.96 YPRR, 18% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 16.9%. Henry has been the preferred red zone target, leading the team with 21 targets, with Diggs in 2nd at 12. I expect Maye to be effective and Henry will benefit, I’ll take him to score a touchdown. 

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (+170)

Drake Mate and Patriots won't have an issue here

Best Bet - Patriots -2.5 -120
Lean - Under 45.5 -115
Score Prediction Chargers 14 Patriots 24

Anytime TD Scorer 

Best Bet (Chargers) Omarion Hampton Anytime TD +130

Getting this at plus value now is sharp, as the odds likely decrease if he is announced as active. Hampton remains the Chargers’ most reliable goal-line option when active, handling the majority of early-down and short-yardage work whenever his ankle allows him to suit up. Despite a difficult matchup, New England has shown some late-season cracks near the goal line, allowing a rushing touchdown in three consecutive games before Week 18. Hampton’s snap share (83% in his last full game) and usage inside the red zone give him outs even if overall rushing efficiency is muted. The Chargers’ tendency to slow games down and avoid high-risk passing near the goal line further boosts Hampton’s touchdown equity, especially if Los Angeles strings together sustained drives rather than explosive plays.

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +170

Henry leads the Patriots with 21 redzone targets, the next closest player is Diggs with 12. Henry has 7 total touchdowns on the season and I expect Maye and this passing offense to have success in his first career playoff game. Despite the Chargers having a solid pass defense on paper, I think they are a bit overrated due to their easy schedule.

First TD

Longshot (Chargers): Quentin Johnston First TD +1340

Johnston profiles as the Chargers’ most explosive scoring threat in this matchup, particularly early in the game when scripted plays are designed to stress the defense vertically. He’s coming off back-to-back breakout performances and has reclaimed a high-value perimeter role against coverage shells that New England uses frequently. The Patriots are more vulnerable on the outside than over the middle, and Johnston’s size-speed profile gives him a clear advantage on isolation routes and early deep shots. If the Chargers strike first through the air, Johnston is the most likely receiver to capitalize before the Patriots can adjust coverage or bracket him.

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +1000

Same analysis as anytime, I expect Maye to have a big game and Henry will be his preferred target in the endzone. Why not score first at these odds?

Parlay #1 (Chargers) +435
Justin Herbert 'U' 1.5 Pass TDs
Ladd McConkey 'U' 40.5 Receiving Yards
Oronde Gadsden 'U' 2.5 Receptions

Parlay #2 (Patriots) +496

Drake Maye Over 271.5 Pass + Rushing Yards
Stefon Diggs 50+ Receiving Yards
Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown