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First TD

QB Jordan Love

Love returns to action in an extremely familiar matchup after exiting early with a concussion in Week 16. Prior to that injury, he had reached 234+ passing yards in three straight full games and accounted for multiple touchdowns in seven of 14 full starts, underscoring his ceiling when healthy. Chicago’s defensive structure plays directly into his strengths: the Bears deploy Cover 3 (28.7%) and Cover 2 (22.4%) on 51.1% of snaps, and Love averages 8.06 yards per attempt, a +5.6% CPOE, and 0.47 TDs per drive against those shells. Chicago has been especially vulnerable late, allowing 300+ passing yards in consecutive games and ranking third-worst in passing TDs allowed per game (1.9). Love already dismantled this unit in Week 14 with 234 yards and 3 TDs, and Green Bay showed no hesitation attacking vertically and off play-action. If protection holds even at an average level, this matchup profiles as one of Love’s better touchdown environments of the season.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Pass TDs (-120)

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs enters the postseason fresher after sitting out Week 18 and playing through a nagging injury late in the regular season. Despite the downturn in raw efficiency, he still scored in two of his last six games, and his role near the goal line has remained consistent. Chicago continues to struggle in the trenches, allowing the second-most adjusted yards before contact per rush (2.68) and the 10th-most rushing yards per game (104.2). In the first meeting, Jacobs handled 20 carries for 86 yards and a touchdown, while Green Bay leaned on him to close drives. Even in the rematch where his efficiency dipped, he still handled 12 carries before the offense stalled. With Love back under center improving red-zone efficiency, Jacobs remains the most likely Packer to finish drives on the ground.

Suggested Play

Anytime TD (-125)

WR Jayden Reed

Reed’s role remains highly stable, particularly against zone-heavy opponents. Chicago’s defensive profile is one of the more favorable slot matchups in the league, allowing the fourth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers (86.7) and the ninth-most receptions per game (6.8). Reed averages 2.58 yards per route run and a 0.21 targets-per-route rate against Cover 2 and Cover 3, and he has cleared 41+ scrimmage yards in every full game this season. In the earlier meeting with Love fully healthy, Reed contributed both as a receiver and runner, showing how Green Bay schematically manufactures touches for him. Even without explosive downfield usage, his short-area involvement gives him a high probability of clearing his receptions prop.

Suggested Play:
'O' 3.5 Receptions (+105)

WR Christian Watson

Watson is the matchup breaker in this game and remains Chicago’s biggest problem on the perimeter. Against Cover 2 and Cover 3, he averages 2.61 YPRR with a 0.25 TPRR, and the Bears allow the seventh-highest yards per reception (14.32) to outside receivers. Watson has reached 45+ receiving yards in eight of his last 10 games, and his red-zone involvement has increased since returning to full health. In Week 14, he torched Chicago for 4/89/2, repeatedly winning vertically and on extended plays. Green Bay’s willingness to isolate Watson deep and off play-action gives him multiple paths to a touchdown, making him the most dangerous scoring threat in the passing game.

Suggested Play

'O' 24.5 Longest Reception (-120)

Anytime TD (+155)

WR Romeo Doubs

Doubs’ production has been uneven, but the underlying efficiency metrics and matchup remain quietly favorable. Against Cover 2 and Cover 3, he averages 2.21 YPRR and a 0.19 TPRR, while Chicago allows the fourth-highest YPRR (2.14) to outside receivers. Although Doubs failed to connect with Love in Week 14, his 5/84/1 performance in Week 16—largely with Malik Willis—showed his ability to capitalize when coverage tilts elsewhere. With defensive attention likely shifting toward Watson, Doubs projects as a secondary perimeter option who can clear modest yardage totals on limited volume.

Suggested Play:
'O' 31.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

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Anytime TD Scorer 

Best Bet (Packers) Josh Jacobs Anytime TD -125

Josh Jacobs enters the postseason fresher after sitting out Week 18 and playing through a nagging injury late in the regular season. Despite the downturn in raw efficiency, he still scored in two of his last six games, and his role near the goal line has remained consistent. Chicago continues to struggle in the trenches, allowing the second-most adjusted yards before contact per rush (2.68) and the 10th-most rushing yards per game (104.2). In the first meeting, Jacobs handled 20 carries for 86 yards and a touchdown, while Green Bay leaned on him to close drives. Even in the rematch where his efficiency dipped, he still handled 12 carries before the offense stalled. With Love back under center improving red-zone efficiency, Jacobs remains the most likely Packer to finish drives on the ground.

First TD

Longshot (Packers) Christian Watson First TD +880

Watson profiles as the most likely player to strike first in this matchup given Green Bay’s scripted tendencies and Chicago’s coverage weaknesses. The Bears open games heavily in Cover 2 and Cover 3 (51.1% combined), shells Watson has consistently punished with explosive plays, averaging 2.61 yards per route run and commanding a 25% targets-per-route rate against those looks. Chicago also allows one of the highest yards per reception figures to outside receivers (14.32), making them vulnerable early before adjustments tighten. In Week 14, Watson scored twice against this same defense, including an early vertical touchdown that came off play-action and isolation coverage—both staples of Green Bay’s opening script. With Jordan Love back under center and the Packers likely looking to test Chicago deep early to set the tone, Watson stands out as the best combination of early target priority, explosive ability, and red-zone usage, giving him a strong case to open the scoring.

Parlay 1 (Packers) +465
Josh Jacobs ATD
Jordan Love 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs
Romeo Doubs 'O' 31.5 Receiving Yards

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Anytime TD Scorer 

First TD

QB Brock Purdy

Purdy enters the Wild Card round coming off a sharp statistical whiplash. From Weeks 15–17, he averaged 316.7 passing yards, 3.3 TDs, and 9.0 YPA, but Philadelphia completely flips the difficulty curve. The Eagles allow just 204.5 passing YPG and a league-low 0.8 passing TDs per game, with multiple passing TDs surrendered only three times all season. Against the Cover 3/Cover 6 shells Philadelphia leans on (50.2%), Purdy has been efficient (8.52 YPA, +7.6% CPOE), but efficiency hasn’t translated into volume against elite pass-rush units. Philly ranks top-five in pressure rate without blitzing, which limits explosive plays and red-zone dropbacks. Given the Eagles’ ability to collapse pockets while keeping safeties deep, Purdy profiles more as a game manager than a ceiling passer in this spot, making unders the sharper angle.

Suggested Play:

'U' 226.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Christian McCaffery

McCaffrey’s Week 18 usage dip looks more like game-script noise than a role change. He still finished the season with 413 total touches, 100+ receptions, and 24.5 yards per game from scrimmage, remaining the engine of San Francisco’s offense. Philadelphia’s front has been strong against interior rushing (1.81 adjusted YBC/ATT), but they quietly allow the sixth-most receiving yards to RBs (37.6 per game). That matters against a QB-contain defense designed to take away downfield throws. Expect Shanahan to lean into angle routes, screens, and option looks to neutralize pressure and slow the pass rush. McCaffrey also handled 86% of snaps last week, confirming there’s no usage concern. Even if rushing efficiency is modest, his hybrid workload keeps the yardage floor high.

Suggested Play:
'O' 107.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Jauan Jennings

Jennings’ touchdown streak (scores in 7 of his last 9 games) masks a tightening path to volume in this matchup. Philadelphia allows the second-fewest TDs to outside WRs (5) and ranks top-10 in limiting boundary targets when playing Cover 6. Against those coverages, Jennings averages just 1.48 YPRR with a modest 19% targets-per-route rate, and his Week 18 usage reflected that ceiling (4/35 on 6 targets). With Kittle back and McCaffrey soaking up short-area usage, Jennings’ production becomes touchdown-dependent — a risky profile against a defense that excels in the red zone.

Suggested Play:
'U' 45.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE George Kittle

Kittle’s return from injury last week showed full participation (88% route share) but muted output (5/29 on 7 targets), and this matchup is as restrictive as it gets for tight ends. Philadelphia allows just 29.8 receiving YPG and 3.9 receptions per game to the position — both second-best in the league. While Kittle remains hyper-efficient versus Cover 3/Cover 6 (2.79 YPRR), the Eagles’ linebackers and safeties excel at limiting yards after catch, which is normally Kittle’s bread and butter. Unless game script forces heavy volume, this projects as a usage-stable but production-capped spot.

Suggested Play:
'U' 59.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

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Anytime TD Scorer 

Best Bet (49ers) George Kittle Anytime TD +165
While Philadelphia has done an excellent job suppressing tight end volume, they’ve still been vulnerable to high-leverage tight end targets in the red zone, particularly off play-action and misdirection. Kittle finished the regular season with 7 touchdowns in 11 games, and he’s long been Purdy’s preferred option near the goal line when defenses overcommit to McCaffrey. Even last week, in a game where his yardage was limited, Kittle still saw seven targets and ran routes on nearly every dropback, confirming his role hasn’t changed. Against an Eagles defense that prioritizes taking away explosive outside plays, Kittle remains the most likely pass-catcher to convert a short-field opportunity into six points.

First TD

Best Bet (49ers) Christian McCaffery First TD +465

San Francisco’s red-zone identity still runs directly through McCaffrey, even in difficult matchups. He led the league in total touches (413) and finished top-three in red-zone opportunities, while accounting for the first touchdown in a game six times this season. Against Philadelphia, the 49ers are far more likely to script an opening drive around ball control, screens, and quick hitters to neutralize the Eagles’ pass rush rather than asking Brock Purdy to attack vertically early. That approach consistently funnels early red-zone touches to McCaffrey, who handles both goal-line carries and designed pass concepts inside the 10. Even in games where his overall efficiency dipped, McCaffrey remained the primary “get-right” option near the goal line, making him the most logical candidate to open the scoring if San Francisco strikes first.

Parlay #1 (49ers): +380

Christian McCaffery ATD
Brock Purdy 'U' 226.5 Pass Yards
Jauan Jennings 'U' 45.5 Receiving Yards

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Anytime TD Scorer 

First TD

Best Bet - 
Lean - 
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Anytime TD Scorer 

First TD