Commanders Team Overview

QB Jayden Daniels

There was no sophomore slump for Daniels in Week 1 against the New York Giants. But now he faced a much more difficult opponent in the Green Bay Packers. The Giants ran the 10th most man coverage last week (35.1%), but will have a different challenge as the Packers ran the second most zone coverage (90.7%). However, Daniels actually did his best work last week against zone. Daniels went 14/17 (82.4%) for 156 passing yards against zone, compared to 4/10 (40%) for 70 passing yards when facing man. Last season, Daniels completed 75.2% of his passes (12th best) but only averaged 146.2 passing yards per game (22nd best). Last week against the Lions, the Packers allowed Jared Goff to complete 31 of his 39 passes. Considering this, along with Daniels finishing with the sixth-highest completion percentage (69%, nice) last season, he should be able to have similar success. Yes, he did not hit this number last week; however, this week poses a more competitive matchup for Daniels, which would result in him throwing more.

Suggested pick:

Jayden Daniels o20.5 Pass Completions (-115)

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Oh boy, did JCM live up to the offseason/training camp hype. He had only played 12 snaps, but carried the ball 10 times for 82 rushing yards. JCM displayed his explosiveness, with three of those rushes going for 10+ yards, including a 42-yard TD run. However, this week will be a much tougher task for JCM. The Packers' run defence was impressive in Week 1, especially considering they played against the Lions, one of the most prolific rushing offences in 2024. Now, it might have been game script, but the Packers held Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to just 44 rushing yards. Green Bay mostly ran 59.1% zone concept. Unfortunately for JCM, all 10 of his rush attempts came against man/gap. While JCM did impress in his NFL debut, he only played 33% of the snaps. In a game that projects to be much closer than last week, we might see an even smaller workload for the rookie, especially on a short week.

Suggested Pick:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt u10.5 Rush Attempts (-105)

RB Austin Ekeler

Despite JCM rushing so well, Ekeler played just one rushing snap fewer than the rookie in Week 1. He didn't have the same success on the ground, but Ekeler still led the backfield with 47% of the snaps. Finishing with just 26 rushing yards, Ekeler caught all three of his targets for 31 receiving yards. With the Commanders entering this matchup as underdogs, he should see an even higher percentage of the snaps, as the clear receiving back. The Packers did not give the Lions much downfield, forcing Detroit to utilize its running backs in the passing game. The Packers allowed the Lions RBs to catch all 14 of their targets, going for just 49 receiving yards. If Daniels and the Commanders use the same strategy, Ekeler should be in for a busy night in the receiving game.

Suggested Pick:

Austin Ekeler o2.5 Receptions (-140)

Austin Ekeler 4+ Receptions (+180)

Austin Ekeler 5+ Receptions (+375)

WR Terry McLaurin

As we predicted last week, Terry struggled in Week 1. Players who hold out throughout training camp usually take a while to get their feet back under them. McLaurin still ran 94.8% of the routes. But that only amounted to two receptions and four targets for 27 receiving yards. The Packers did a great job of limiting Lions WRs last week, holding them to just 11 receptions for 97 receiving yards – and the Lions trailed the entire game. Luckily for McLaurin, both of his receptions came against zone. Dating back to last year, he had a higher catch rate, yards per reception, and yards per route run against coverage. McLaurin lined out wide 80% of the time last week – to which the Packers allowed most of their yards. If the Commanders are going to keep up with the Packers in this matchup, they're going to need McLaurin to get involved early and often. And after a one-week hiatus, McLaurin's going to show us the receiver we saw last season.

Suggested pick:

Terry McLaurin o4.5 Receptions (+110)

WR Deebo Samuel

While McLaurin may not have been the focal point of the offence, Deebo Samuel stepped up in his Commanders debut. Deebo caught seven of his 10 targets for 77 yards. Being the Swiss Army knife that he is, Deebo took his one rush attempt 19 yards to the house. Deebo lined up in the slot 69.7% of the time. However, the Packers did a pretty good job of keeping the Lions' slot receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown, in check, as he finished with just four receptions on six targets for 45 receiving yards. This might not look great on the surface; however, Packers CB Javon Bullard played all 41 of his passing-down snaps in the slot and allowed 10 receptions on 11 targets, resulting in 72 receiving yards against. If Deebo continues to roll over his success from the week prior, Bullard should be in for another busy night.

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel o50+ Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Zach Ertz

The almost 35-year-old TE just keeps trucking along. He caught three of his five targets for 26 receiving yards in Week 1, with one of them reaching the end zone. Ertz's route percentage was high at 88.2%, but he lost some of his mojo from last season as the Commanders now have a true slot receiver in Deebo. 67.6% of Ertz's snaps, he still lined up in the slot; however, his production decreased. The Packers did struggle against the Lions' TEs last week, allowing six receptions for 79 receiving yards. Despite that, we may start seeing Ertz start fizzling out of the offence with Deebo lining up in the slot on the opposite side of him.

Suggested pick:

Zach Ertz u32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Packers Team Overview

Game Prediction

Best Bet
Lean
Score Prediction

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Commanders): Jayden Daniels Anytime TD (+155)

He scored the first TD last week, and I was kicking myself for not taking him. And with the Packers having the best run defence in Week 1, along with a new elite pass rusher in Micah Parsons, Daniels may need to scramble his way to the end zone rather than running the ball in the red zone.

Longshot:

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Commanders) Terry McLaurin First TD (+1000)

As we mentioned, if the Commanders want to compete with the Packers, they will need McLaurin early and often. The Packers allowed just one TD last week, and it came out wide to Isaac Teslaa in garbage time. This could be the best way to get his confidence back after a down Week 1.

Longshot: