QB Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield completed 17 of 32 passes for 167 yards last week at Atlanta. This is not the yardage total we expected from Baker, but he did throw 3 TD’s making it a very productive week. The Buccaneers will play their second straight road game to begin the season tonight in Houston. Last week I talked about Bucs new OC Josh Grizzard wanting Mayfield to take more shots downfield this season and it definitely showed last week as 45.8% of his throws were for 10+ yards, a significant increase to last year’s 32.3%. We’re just one game into the season but there’s no reason to think this is not going to continue being the trend in TB. The absence of all pro OT Tristan Wirfs definitely contributed to his 54% completion rate, but this should rise when her return in the next 2-3 weeks. Baker is most likely going to see a heavy dose of Cover 1 (43.8%) and Cover 3 (28.1%), the two schemes Houston’s defense employed most in week 1. Matthew Stafford threw for 245 yards in that game, but he has excelled against these coverages in the past. Last week, Mayfield completed just 10 of 22 (45.05) passes for 97 yards vs Cover 1 and 3. In the ’24 season he had a 69.1% completion rate, while throwing 15 TD and 8 INT, but it’s extremely important to know this was with all-pro Tristan Wirfs on the field. Last week he was pressured on 40.5% of his dropback. The Texans sacked Matthew Stafford on 3 occasions, and I think Houston is going to make things tough on Mayfield tonight. I don’t have a lot of faith in Baker’s passing props this week, but there is value with his legs. The Falcons defense had a similar pressure rate to what he will see tonight, and he had 5 carries for 39 yards. Atlanta allowed the 3^rd most rushing yards (495) to opposing QB’s in ’24 and Houston allowed the 11^th most (400). In 17 games last season, Baker Mayfield amassed 378 yards on 60 carries, averaging 6.3 YPC. Mayfield is going to have to rely on his legs tonight and he will fight and claw for every yard.

Suggested Bet:

Baker Mayfield o18.5 Rush Yards (-114)

 

RB Bucky Irving

Bucky Irving had a great rookie campaign in ‘24, especially in the second half of the season but last week in Atlanta he had 14 carries for only 37 yards, and 4 catches for 8 yards. Again, the absence of Tristan Wirfs is huge for the Bucs in every area of their offense. In week 1, this resulted in Irving being hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 56.7% of carries. On a positive note, he got the majority of the work out of the backfield (82.0%) and most importantly Bucky got every carry from the goal line, and all was not last as he found pay dirt once vs the Falcons. If there was any concern about Rachaad White cutting into Irving’s workload that was put to bed last Sunday. He has a stranglehold on the backfield; however he faces another tough matchup tonight against a Texans defense who limited the Rams to just 68 yards on 19 carries, and in’24 Houston gave up an average of just 3.9 YPC to opposing RB’s.

Suggested Bet:

Bucky Irving u64.5 Rush Yards (-112)

 

WR Mike Evans

Mike Evans opened up his 12th NFL season with a 5 catch, 51 yard effort in Atlanta, and despite Emeka Egbuka's sensational rookie start Evans still led the Buccaneers with 8 targets. Evans is always a great play for an anytime TD but he is in a nice spot here after what Egbuka did last week. Evans has a pretty solid matchup here as well against the Texans who ran a Single High Safety over the middle of the field on 71.9% of dropbacks in week 1 and this was the highest of any team. Furthermore, on 8 first quarter dropbacks they ran a Single High 75% of the time - Cover-3 (50%) & Cover 1 (25%). When facing Single High Evans averages 3.20 YPRR and is Mayfield's first read 28.9% of the time. On Two High, he's getting 2.06 yards YPRR (25.5% first read). When facing Cover-1 and Cover-3 schemes, Evans is averaging 3.20 YPPR with a first read rate of 28.9%. And it should be pointed out that Baker Mayfield loves going to Mike Evans early and often in the first quarter, and this matchup should coincide very well with that narrative.

Suggested Bet:

Mike Evans 10+ 1Q Rush Yards (-113)

 

WR Emeka Egbuka

Rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka far exceeded expectations in his first start as a Buccaneer. He caught 4 of 6 targets for 67 yards and Baker Mayfield found him twice in the endzone. There was no working in Egbuka in week 1 as he played on 97.5% of TB’s passing plays. No rookie had a higher rate last Sunday. Egbuka is going to be a major threat all season even when Chris Godwin, but he will be even more relied upon until he returns. Egbuka has the best matchup of any Tampa Bay player this week. What I like most is that the Bucs spread him out on the field all game. He played 55.4% of his snaps out wide and 44.2% in the slot, and this is where Egbuka should shine tonight. Last season, the Texans allowed 8.6 YPT in the slot while allowing an 11.0% TD (highest in NFL) rate to receivers out of the slot. This trend was a major issue in week 1 as Houston’s defense gave up 120 yards receiving on 8 receptions in the slot vs Los Angeles. This is a great spot for Emeka Egbuka to prove last week was anything but beginner’s luck.

Suggested Bet:

Emeka Egbuka 50+ Receiving Yards (-133)

Emeka Egbuka o4.5 Receptions (+100)

 

TE Cade Otton

This is going to be pretty short and sweet, and for obvious reasons. Despite running 31 routes, Cade Otton was targeted just 3 times and didn’t catch a single pass in week 1. Most importantly, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles hinted in his press conference last week that TB would most likely have to extend his role as a pass blocking TE in order to help buy Baker Mayfield more time on passing plays. If Otton’s 3 targets with 0 catches isn’t bad enough, consider he is facing a Texans defense who last week allowed just 3 receptions for 7 yards combined to Rams tight ends, Davis Allen and Colby Parkinson. This is no fluke either as Houston allowed the 6^th fewest receptions and 8^th fewest yards to opposing TE’s in ’24.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

QB C.J. Stroud
Such high hopes for Stroud’s debut and instead we got a performance much like last season. He threw for just 188 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. He completed 70% of his passes and chipped in 5 carries for 32 yards. The huge concern here is the offensive line. They rank 21st in pass blocking and 25th in run blocking. In week 1, the line allowed the 9th lowest time to throw (2.44). If Stroud isn’t given time, like last season, he’ll struggle. Not a good combo when Stroud will now face a defense that held the 5th highest pressure rate last season (34.4%). One thing to note is TB did not produce many turnover-worthy plays in 2024. They ranked just 23rd in turnover-worthy throw rate (2.4%). We did see Stroud use his legs in week 1 and he might have to do that again here. He’s no speedster, but has enough mobility to grab yards in an open field. As much as I was hoping things would be different to kick off 2025, it looks like HOU will be relying on their defense and be participating in some low scoring games.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 10.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

RB Nick Chubb
Based on week 1’s usage, Chubb was the clear RB1 in this offense. He finished the game with 13 carries for 60 yards and no catches on a single target. The other running backs combined for 8 carries for 17 rushing yards. Chubb definitely doesn’t look like his old self, but was still effective in this game. He was, honestly, the most effective piece of this offense in week 1. In 2024, Tampa’s defense allowed the 4th fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs. They did allow a decent explosive rush rate (5.1%), however. This defense did a great job in week 1 against a good rushing team in Atlanta. Between Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, they only compiled 48 rushing yards on 22 carries - good for 2.2 yards per carry. With the current state of the Texans offense, they could stack boxes. In week 1, the Bucs did allow the backs to produce in the receiving game. Bijan caught 6 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown, which led the team. In 2024m they did allow a 8.6% checkdown rate, which was good for 12th highest. Chubb doesn’t play on 3rd down, but he did get a target last week and his receiving yards line is at 0.5. It’s not a fun play, but definitely interesting given the matchup.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 13.5 Carries (+120)
‘O’ 0.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Nico Collins
WHERE DID NICO GO?! The star WR only caught 3 of 5 targets for 25 yards. The good news is, he was out there plenty, logging 33 passing snaps ( next highest was 26) and ran routes on 90.9% of them. His aDOT was low in week one (7.0) compared to last year’s average (11.9). Of course, they may have been a product of Stroud not having time, but I do expect them to get Nico back involved this week. He also had the only redzone target from Stroud too. Luckily, Tampa Bay is more susceptible to the air, at least last season. They allowed the 7th most receiving yards to opposing WR’s in 2024 (2,659) and 10th most touchdowns (18). In week 1, they allowed just shy of 300 receiving yards to pass catchers. This feels like a get right game for Nico, but if you want to pass I don’t blame you. 

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 5.5 Receptions (-135)

 

WR Jayden Higgins
Higgins, like the other WR’s in this offense, was underwhelming in his debut. He reeled in 2 catches for a team-high (yikes) 32 yards on 3 targets. He looked ok in his debut, but he only logged 16 passing snaps with a 87.5 route run rate. As expected, he primarily played outside (81.3%) with a small share of time in the slot (18.8%). Fellow rookie, Jaylin Noel only played 2 fewer passing snaps, while Xavier Hutchinson played 26. It still felt like Higgins was the number 2 in this offense and I expect his participation to grow as the season progresses. He drew the highest aDOT of all receivers (17.3) and did catch a 23-yard pass. I think he continues to be their deep threat and even with a lower volume role, he could hit his receiving line in one catch. The skills are there and a negative game script could force HOU to throw often.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Xavier Hutchinson
As mentioned in the Higgins write-up, Hutchinson did log plenty of snaps in this game and finished with two catches for 30 yards on 2 targets. He also added a carry for 5 yards. I’m not thrilled about the player, but it’s clear he is going to have a role while Kirk is out. Hutchinson ran a route on 88.5% of snaps in week 1 and lined up primarily on the outside (80.8%). His aDOT was 14.0 in week 1, but I’m not expecting that going forward. If you are looking at an over given his usage, I like over 1.5 receptions over the yardage.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Receptions (-120)

 

TE Dalton Schultz
Schultz led the team in targets after week 1 with 5. He caught 3 of those for 28 yards with a long of 11 yards. They moved Schultz around, playing 30.8% of the time out of the slot, 7.7% out wide and 61.5% in line. He walked away with a solid aDOT of 7.8 and 11 yards after the catch. In week 1, Tampa allowed Kyle Pitts 7 catches on 8 targets for 59 receiving yards. Last season they were susceptible to opposing TE’s too, allowing the 2nd most yards, 5th most receptions and 8th most targets to the position. The Buccaneers played above league average in zone rate too, which tends to favor the TE, who can find soft spots and work as an outlet for his QB. I’m expecting Schultz to continue to be a reliable option, especially when Stroud is under pressure.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-140)

Tampa Bay picked up a really nice win at Atlanta to begin the season but they will be on the road again tonight in Houston, and the Texans are coming off a disappointing loss to the Rams. This is a pretty even matchup as evidenced in the spread/ML and a few plays should decide this one. While Baker Mayfield is hard to not back in clutch moments like we saw last week, the absence of Tristan Wirfs plays a much bigger role, and I just think this is going to be a tough matchup for the Bucs. I also can't emphasize enough Houston coming off a loss last week. They do not want to start out the season 0-2.

Best Bet: Texans ML (-135)
Lean: Over 42.5
Score Prediction: 26-20

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Texans) Nico Collins +140
The Bucaneers allowed 18 touchdowns to opposing wideouts last season and Nico had one the last time these two met. After week 1's stinker, Im expecting the Texans to get their star WR back involved. Nico drew the only redzone target from Stroud last week.

Best Bet: (Buccaneers) Emeka Egbuka +165
Baker Mayfield wasted no time geting Emeka Egbuka involved in the Tampa Bay offense. He found the rookie for 2 passing TD's at Atlanta in week 1. With the attention that Mike Evans draws it's going to continue to allow Egbuka to take advantage.

 

First Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Texans) Nico Collins +750

Prioritizing Collins early should be the play from the Texans offense. He's the most proven WR (and it's not close) and should be relied on heavily in this offense.

Best Bet: (Buccaneers) Emeka Egbuka +950

Emeka Egbuka played 44.2% of his snaps out of the slot in week 1 and this is where Houston struggles the most, allowing 8.6 yards per target to slot receivers. They were torched by the Rams out of the slot to the tune of 8 receptions for 120 yards, and in'24 they allowed They an 11.0% TD rate (#1 in NFL) to WR's out of the slot.

Longshot: (Texans) C.J. Stroud +2200

We saw Stroud scramble plenty last week and with another good pressure rate team we may see it again. Blitzing is effective, but can also create nice scramble lanes up the middle.

Parlay #1 (Texans): +193 on FanDuel

C.J. Stroud 10+ Rushing Yards

Jayden Higgins Reception of 10+ Yards

Nick Chubb 30+ Rushing Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Buccaneers): +120 on Draft Kings

Emeka Egbuka 50+ Receiving Yards

Emeka Egbuka 5+ Receptions

 

Parlay #3 (Buccaneers): +575 on Draft Kings

Emeka Egbuka 70+ Receiving Yards

Emeka Egbuka 6+ Receptions

Emeka Egbuka Anytime TD

 

Parlay #4 (MNF Longshot): +2400 on Draft Kings

Nick Chubb u12.5 1Q Rush Yards

Mike Evans o12.5 1Q Receiving Yards

Emeka Egbuka 70+ Receiving Yards

Emeka Egbuka 6+ Receptions

Emeka Egbuka Anytime TD

QB Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert came out firing in Week 1, completing 25 of 34 passes for 318 yards and 3 touchdowns while adding 32 yards on the ground. The Chargers leaned heavily into the pass, ranking 4th in neutral pass rate and 1st in pass rate over expected, a continuation of their aggressive approach from late last season. Week 2 sets up well against a Raiders defense that gave up 287 yards and a touchdown on 46 attempts to rookie Drake Maye in the opener. Herbert has already had recent success against this division rival, throwing for 490 yards and 3 scores while rushing for 48 yards across two meetings in 2024. With the Chargers carrying a 25 point implied total, tied for the 6th highest of the week, Herbert is positioned to once again drive the offense through the air against a secondary that remains vulnerable.

Suggested Play:
'O' 253.5 Passing Yards (–115)

 

RB Omarion Hampton

Omarion Hampton opened his career as Los Angeles’ clear lead back, logging 81 percent of the snaps, running a route on 61 percent of dropbacks, and handling 83 percent of the designed rushes. The box score was underwhelming against Kansas City’s front as he finished with 15 carries for 48 yards and 2 catches for 13 yards, averaging just 1.13 yards before contact per attempt. Despite that, his workload left little doubt about his role. Najee Harris is expected to mix in more as he gets back to full speed after missing most of camp with an eye issue, but Hampton remains the centerpiece of the backfield. Week 2 presents a more forgiving matchup against the Raiders, who allowed 2.33 adjusted yards before contact per attempt and were beaten for 78 rushing yards and 36 receiving yards by TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 1. With the Chargers entering as 3.5 point favorites and a 25 point implied total, Hampton should be in position for steadier production behind an offense that will give him scoring opportunities.

Suggested Play:

'O' 62.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (–115)

 

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey picked up right where he left off in Week 1, finishing second on the Chargers in targets and receptions with 6 catches for 74 yards on 9 looks from Justin Herbert. That marked his 12th straight game with at least 52 receiving yards, underscoring his consistency as a reliable option in the passing game. The Raiders leaned on zone coverage in their opener, using Cover 3 on 43 percent of snaps and Cover 2 on 25 percent. McConkey has excelled against those looks, averaging 2.61 yards per route run and drawing targets on 24 percent of his routes against them last season. He also delivered in this divisional matchup last year, posting 5 catches for 39 yards and a touchdown in one meeting and 5 catches for 95 yards in the other. With Herbert in command of a pass heavy attack, McConkey is well positioned to produce again against a defense that just allowed 173 yards and a score to New England’s wideouts.

 

Suggested Play:

'O' 64.5 Receiving Yards

 

WR Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen wasted no time reestablishing himself in the Chargers offense after a season in Chicago. He led the team in both targets and receptions in Week 1, finishing with 7 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown on 10 looks. His snap share was lower than expected at 62 percent as Quentin Johnston paced the receiver group, but Allen was still heavily involved in the passing structure. The Raiders leaned on zone coverage in their opener, using Cover 3 on 43 percent of snaps and Cover 2 on 25 percent. Last season in Chicago, Allen averaged 1.53 yards per route run and earned targets on 23 percent of his routes against those coverages, showing he can consistently work open underneath. Stefon Diggs managed 6 catches for 57 yards in this matchup last week, and Allen’s ability to find space in similar coverage shells gives him a path to another productive day.

Suggested Play:
'O' 5.5 Receptions (–115)

 

WR Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston opened his second season in explosive fashion, catching 5 passes for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 targets while playing 82 percent of the snaps in the Chargers’ win over Kansas City. Operating as the number 2 receiver behind Ladd McConkey and ahead of Keenan Allen, Johnston has clearly become a key part of the passing attack. His red zone instincts stand out with 10 touchdowns on just 98 career targets, making him one of the most efficient scorers in the league on a per target basis. The Raiders leaned on Cover 3 and Cover 2 for 68 percent of their snaps last week, and Johnston has excelled against those looks, averaging 2.55 yards per route run in 2024. With Las Vegas already giving up 103 yards to Kayshon Boutte in the opener, Johnston’s ability to stretch the field and win in contested situations gives him another strong chance to score.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+140)

QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith made an immediate impact in his Raiders debut, completing 24 of 34 passes for 362 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception in a road win over New England. He showed quick chemistry with his top targets, connecting 13 times for 200 yards with Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Las Vegas leaned into the pass with the 4th highest pass rate over expectation in Week 1, a sign that Smith will be asked to shoulder the offense. Week 2 brings a different test against a Chargers defense that ranked 8th in passing yards allowed last season at 221.1 per game. Los Angeles limited Patrick Mahomes to just 6.6 yards per attempt in the opener, though they also surrendered 57 rushing yards and a score to him on scrambles. The Chargers were 10th in pressure rate in Week 1, and handling that rush will be key for Smith to maintain his efficiency. With a vertical passing game that clicked immediately, Smith has the tools to test a defense that still has questions in coverage.

Suggested Play:
'O' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+135)

 

RB Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty found the end zone in his professional debut, but overall efficiency was hard to come by against New England. He logged a heavy workload with 86 percent of the snaps, 79 percent of the carries, and a 49 percent route share, finishing with 19 carries for 38 yards and 2 catches for 2 yards. The problem was up front, as he averaged just 0.26 yards before contact per attempt and was stuffed on nearly 58 percent of his runs. Week 2 will not get much easier against a Chargers defense that just held Kansas City’s backfield to 16 carries for 53 yards at 3.3 yards per attempt while limiting them to 18 receiving yards. Jeanty’s volume is secure, but unless the offensive line finds ways to create space, his efficiency will remain capped in another difficult matchup.

Suggested Play:
'U' 55.5 Rushing Yards (–110)

 

WR Jakobi Meyers

Jakobi Meyers made his presence felt in Week 1 against his former team, catching 8 passes for 97 yards on 10 targets while running a route on 92 percent of dropbacks. He worked primarily from the slot, lining up inside on 61 percent of his routes after spending much less time there last season. That role could be even more important in Week 2 if Brock Bowers is limited or unavailable. The Chargers were just exploited in the slot by Kansas City, who piled up 11 catches for 136 yards and a touchdown from that alignment. Meyers has already proven effective in this matchup, posting 61 yards in one game and 123 yards with a score in the other last season. With the Raiders expected to continue leaning on the pass, Meyers’ usage inside gives him a favorable path to impact again.

Suggested Play:
'O' 5.5 Receptions (–115)

 

TE Brock Bowers / TE Michael Mayer

Brock Bowers flashed immediately in Week 1, hauling in 5 catches for 103 yards on 8 targets before leaving early with a knee issue. He told reporters afterward that he felt fine, and Pete Carroll labeled him day to day, but his status for Week 2 remains uncertain. If Bowers is limited or sidelined, Michael Mayer is the next man up. Mayer was efficient in the opener, catching all 4 of his targets for 38 yards, and his role would expand significantly if Bowers is not available. The Chargers have had trouble with tight ends in recent years and just surrendered 48 yards and a touchdown to the position in Week 1. Mayer’s steady hands and red zone presence would make him a natural target for Geno Smith near the goal line if Bowers is out or on a pitch count.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+420)

 

If you can't tell by all the overs, I like the over. The Chargers enter Week 2 looking to build on their explosive passing start behind Justin Herbert, who shredded Kansas City in the opener. Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen give Los Angeles plenty of weapons to attack a Raiders secondary still adjusting to heavy zone looks under Patrick Graham. The Raiders showed fight in Week 1 behind Geno Smith’s debut, but questions linger with Brock Bowers banged up and the run game struggling to find efficiency. With Herbert in rhythm and the Chargers carrying one of the week’s higher implied totals, Los Angeles looks primed to take this divisional matchup in a high scoring affair.

 

Best Bet: Chargers -3.5
Lean: Over 46.5
Score Prediction: Chargers 31, Raiders 24

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Raiders) Quentin Johnston +240

Quentin Johnston opened his second season in explosive fashion, catching 5 passes for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 targets while playing 82 percent of the snaps in the Chargers’ win over Kansas City. Operating as the number 2 receiver behind Ladd McConkey and ahead of Keenan Allen, Johnston has clearly become a key part of the passing attack. His red zone instincts stand out with 10 touchdowns on just 98 career targets, making him one of the most efficient scorers in the league on a per target basis. The Raiders leaned on Cover 3 and Cover 2 for 68 percent of their snaps last week, and Johnston has excelled against those looks, averaging 2.55 yards per route run in 2024. With Las Vegas already giving up 103 yards to Kayshon Boutte in the opener, Johnston’s ability to stretch the field and win in contested situations gives him another strong chance to score.

 

Best Bet: (Raiders) Michael Mayer +420

Brock Bowers flashed immediately in Week 1, hauling in 5 catches for 103 yards on 8 targets before leaving early with a knee issue. He told reporters afterward that he felt fine, and Pete Carroll labeled him day to day, but his status for Week 2 remains uncertain. If Bowers is limited or sidelined, Michael Mayer is the next man up. Mayer was efficient in the opener, catching all 4 of his targets for 38 yards, and his role would expand significantly if Bowers is not available. The Chargers have had trouble with tight ends in recent years and just surrendered 48 yards and a touchdown to the position in Week 1. Mayer’s steady hands and red zone presence would make him a natural target for Geno Smith near the goal line if Bowers is out or on a pitch count.

 

First Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Chargers) Omarion Hampton First TD (+470)

The Raiders overhauled their secondary in the offseason, but Patrick Graham remains the defensive coordinator under new head coach Pete Carroll. Last year, this defense allowed a 22 to 0 TD to INT ratio in the red zone and while they gave up 13 rushing touchdowns, they held opponents to just 1.9 yards per carry near the goal line. That makes red zone execution critical, and Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers are built for it. Harbaugh leans run heavy in close, with Los Angeles logging 64 red zone rushing attempts compared to 51 passes last season. Hampton already showed he is the feature back in this area with 4 red zone carries in Week 1, and with Najee Harris still limited after missing most of camp, Hampton has the clear edge for early scoring chances. His role, paired with Harbaugh’s philosophy, gives him a strong case to be the first player to cross the goal line in this matchup.

 

Parlay #1 (Chargers): +355
Justin Herbert 'O' 22.5 Completions
Ladd McConkey 'O' 24.5 Yard Longest Reception

Justin Herbert 'O' 36.5 Longest Completion

 

Parlay #2 (Raiders): +211

Ashton Jeanty 'U' 17.5 Rush Attempts 

Geno Smith 'O' 244.5 Pass Yards

QB Jayden Daniels

There was no sophomore slump for Daniels in Week 1 against the New York Giants. But now he faced a much more difficult opponent in the Green Bay Packers. The Giants ran the 10th most man coverage last week (35.1%), but will have a different challenge as the Packers ran the second most zone coverage (90.7%). However, Daniels actually did his best work last week against zone. Daniels went 14/17 (82.4%) for 156 passing yards against zone, compared to 4/10 (40%) for 70 passing yards when facing man. Last season, Daniels completed 75.2% of his passes (12th best) but only averaged 146.2 passing yards per game (22nd best). Last week against the Lions, the Packers allowed Jared Goff to complete 31 of his 39 passes. Considering this, along with Daniels finishing with the sixth-highest completion percentage (69%, nice) last season, he should be able to have similar success. Yes, he did not hit this number last week; however, this week poses a more competitive matchup for Daniels, which would result in him throwing more.

Suggested pick:

Jayden Daniels o20.5 Pass Completions (-115)

 

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Oh boy, did JCM live up to the offseason/training camp hype. He had only played 12 snaps, but carried the ball 10 times for 82 rushing yards. JCM displayed his explosiveness, with three of those rushes going for 10+ yards, including a 42-yard TD run. However, this week will be a much tougher task for JCM. The Packers' run defence was impressive in Week 1, especially considering they played against the Lions, one of the most prolific rushing offences in 2024. Now, it might have been game script, but the Packers held Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to just 44 rushing yards. Green Bay mostly ran 59.1% zone concept. Unfortunately for JCM, all 10 of his rush attempts came against man/gap. While JCM did impress in his NFL debut, he only played 33% of the snaps. In a game that projects to be much closer than last week, we might see an even smaller workload for the rookie, especially on a short week.

Suggested Pick:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt u10.5 Rush Attempts (-105)

 

RB Austin Ekeler

Despite JCM rushing so well, Ekeler played just one rushing snap fewer than the rookie in Week 1. He didn't have the same success on the ground, but Ekeler still led the backfield with 47% of the snaps. Finishing with just 26 rushing yards, Ekeler caught all three of his targets for 31 receiving yards. With the Commanders entering this matchup as underdogs, he should see an even higher percentage of the snaps, as the clear receiving back. The Packers did not give the Lions much downfield, forcing Detroit to utilize its running backs in the passing game. The Packers allowed the Lions RBs to catch all 14 of their targets, going for just 49 receiving yards. If Daniels and the Commanders use the same strategy, Ekeler should be in for a busy night in the receiving game.

Suggested Pick:

Austin Ekeler o2.5 Receptions (-140)

Austin Ekeler 4+ Receptions (+180)

Austin Ekeler 5+ Receptions (+375)

 

WR Terry McLaurin

As we predicted last week, Terry struggled in Week 1. Players who hold out throughout training camp usually take a while to get their feet back under them. McLaurin still ran 94.8% of the routes. But that only amounted to two receptions and four targets for 27 receiving yards. The Packers did a great job of limiting Lions WRs last week, holding them to just 11 receptions for 97 receiving yards – and the Lions trailed the entire game. Luckily for McLaurin, both of his receptions came against zone. Dating back to last year, he had a higher catch rate, yards per reception, and yards per route run against zone coverage. McLaurin lined out wide 80% of the time last week – to which the Packers allowed most of their yards. If the Commanders are going to keep up with the Packers in this matchup, they're going to need McLaurin to get involved early and often. And after a one-week hiatus, McLaurin's going to show us the receiver we saw last season.

Suggested pick:

Terry McLaurin o4.5 Receptions (+110)

 

WR Deebo Samuel

While McLaurin may not have been the focal point of the offence, Deebo Samuel stepped up in his Commanders debut. Deebo caught seven of his 10 targets for 77 yards. Being the Swiss Army knife that he is, Deebo took his one rush attempt 19 yards to the house. Deebo lined up in the slot 69.7% of the time. However, the Packers did a pretty good job of keeping the Lions' slot receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown, in check, as he finished with just four receptions on six targets for 45 receiving yards. This might not look great on the surface; however, Packers CB Javon Bullard played all 41 of his passing-down snaps in the slot and allowed 10 receptions on 11 targets, resulting in 72 receiving yards against. If Deebo continues to roll over his success from the week prior, Bullard should be in for another busy night.

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel o50+ Receiving Yards (-115)

 

TE Zach Ertz

The almost 35-year-old TE just keeps trucking along. He caught three of his five targets for 26 receiving yards in Week 1, with one of them reaching the end zone. Ertz's route percentage was high at 88.2%, but he lost some of his mojo from last season as the Commanders now have a true slot receiver in Deebo. 67.6% of Ertz's snaps, he still lined up in the slot; however, his production decreased. The Packers did struggle against the Lions' TEs last week, allowing six receptions for 79 receiving yards. Despite that, we may start seeing Ertz start fizzling out of the offence with Deebo lining up in the slot on the opposite side of him.

Suggested pick:

Zach Ertz u32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jordan Love
Jordan Love attempted just 22 passes in the opener as Green Bay controlled Detroit, finishing 16 of 22 for 188 yards and a touchdown with a 10.3 average depth of target. His Week 2 matchup with Washington is far less forgiving. The Commanders pressured Russell Wilson on 46.7% of his dropbacks in Week 1 and held him to just 168 scoreless yards, but what stood out most was the secondary’s discipline against the deep ball. After ranking 23rd in 2024 with an 11.9% deep throw rate allowed, Washington cut that to just 2.7% in the opener, showing improved coverage integrity downfield. They did so while playing zone on only 42.2% of snaps, the lowest rate in the NFL in Week 1, signaling a more man-heavy tilt that pairs with their pressure packages. That creates an intriguing chess match against Love, who pushed the ball vertically against Detroit but will be tested behind an offensive line missing key pieces in right tackle Zach Tom (oblique) and left guard Aaron Banks (ankle/groin) are both banged up. If Washington sustains its pressure rate while forcing Love to stay underneath, the Packers may need to lean on quick-game efficiency rather than explosive plays to move the ball.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 37.5 Yard Longest Completion (-115)

 

RB Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs handled 19 carries for 66 yards and a touchdown in the opener, again setting the tone as Green Bay’s bell cow. Week 2 brings a tougher challenge against Washington, who just shut down the Giants with a 52.2% stuff rate and held their backs to 30 yards on 15 attempts, including only 2.50 yards per carry against zone. While Washington has typically leaned on zone coverage (59.7% of snaps last year), which was 5th-highest in the league. They came out in Week 1 with the lowest zone rate in football at 42.2%. That more man-heavy approach helps close running lanes but also increases the risk of explosive breakdowns if a runner breaks through. Green Bay’s rushing attack was strong against man looks last year, with a 54.0% success rate (8th-best), and Washington allowed 26.4% of their rushing yards in 2024 on explosives. Jacobs may not pile up efficient yardage, but the setup is there for him to pop a long run.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 14.5 Yard Longest Rush (–115)

WR Romeo Doubs
Romeo Doubs remains Green Bay’s leader in snaps, but his usage underscores Matt LaFleur’s wide receiver rotation. He logged 70.8% of snaps in Week 1, the highest among Packers receivers but still down from 76% last year, and managed just four targets, catching two for 68 yards. With Matthew Golden and Dontayvion Wicks both siphoning opportunities, Doubs’ volume is capped compared to a true full-time wideout. His Week 2 matchup against Washington adds another challenge: the Commanders leaned on man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in Week 1 (35.6%) after ranking sixth in man rate last season, a look that has consistently given Doubs trouble. In 2024, he averaged only 1.08 yards per route run against man, well below starter-level efficiency. Facing a secondary that held up against deep attempts while pairing it with a relentless pass rush, Doubs’ chances of landing another long gain appear limited.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 21.5 Yard Longest Reception (-110)

 

WR Jayden Reed
Jayden Reed enters Week 2 as Green Bay’s most dynamic slot weapon after flashing separation and vertical ability in the opener, posting an elite 3.75 YPRR, 20th among all wide receivers in Week 1. He lined up in the slot on 75% of his snaps, a role that matches up directly with a Washington defense that last season allowed 7.95 yards per attempt to slot targets, ranking 14th in the league. In Week 1, Washington pressured Russell Wilson on 46.7% of dropbacks and held him to just 168 yards, while tightening downfield coverage by allowing deep attempts on only 2.7% of passes after surrendering an 11.9% rate in 2024. They leaned on man coverage at the eighth-highest rate (35.6%) while playing zone just 42.2% of the time, the lowest mark in the league. That combination makes explosive plays harder to come by, but Reed’s quickness underneath and consistent volume in the short-to-intermediate passing game should keep him active.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (–115)

 

TE Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft emerged as Green Bay’s clear lead tight end in Week 1, running a route on 74% of dropbacks compared to John Fitzpatrick (26%) and Luke Musgrave (9%). He turned four targets into two catches for 16 yards and a touchdown, showing how the Packers lean on him near the goal line. Washington wasn’t seriously tested by tight ends in Week 1. Theo Johnson managed just a single five-yard grab, but last year they were stingy, giving up the 5th fewest receiving yards per game to the position (39.9). The Commanders also leaned heavily into man coverage in their opener (35.6%, 8th-highest), after ranking sixth in man usage last season, and Kraft produced a steady 1.29 yards per route run on 99 routes against man looks in 2024. While yardage may not come easy, his red-zone usage and snap dominance make him a strong candidate to find the end zone again.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+250)

This is a great matchup and im looking forward to this one. Daniels does his best work against Zone coverage which is something the Packers ran 90% of the time last week. Not only that but the Packers are expected to continue to generate a ton of pressure which screams short passes and making that clock tick. Now on the other side the Packers will br facing a Commander defense that looked promising as thatsecondary’s discipline against the deep ball was really good especially after ranking 23rd in 2024 with an 11.9% deep throw rate allowed, Washington cut that to just 2.7% in the opener against Russell Wilson who loves throwing the deep ball.They did so while playing zone on only 42.2% of snaps, the lowest rate in the NFL in Week 1, signaling a more man-heavy tilt that pairs with their pressure packages. That creates an intriguing chess match against Love, who pushed the ball vertically against Detroit but will be tested behind an offensive line missing key pieces in right tackle Zach Tom (oblique) and left guard Aaron Banks (ankle/groin) are both banged up. If Washington sustains its pressure rate while forcing Love to stay underneath, the Packers may need to lean on quick-game efficiency rather than explosive plays to move the ball which again that clock will tick tick tick. We are due for one of those let down primetime games! Total is way to high and I can't get myself to fade a Packers team that looked really good in Week 1 against a very good Lions team. The Commanders played the Giants which this is gonna be a huge stepup in competition. 

 

Best Bet (Under 48.5 +100)
Lean (Packers -2.5 -135
Score Prediction (Commanders 17 Packers 24)

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Commanders): Jayden Daniels Anytime TD (+155)

He scored the first TD last week, and I was kicking myself for not taking him. And with the Packers having the best run defence in Week 1, along with a new elite pass rusher in Micah Parsons, Daniels may need to scramble his way to the end zone rather than running the ball in the red zone.

 

Longshot: (Packers) Tucker Kraft Anytime TD (+250)

Tucker Kraft emerged as Green Bay’s clear lead tight end in Week 1. He turned four targets into two catches for 16 yards and a touchdown, showing how the Packers lean on him near the goal line. Washington wasn’t seriously tested by tight ends in Week 1—Theo Johnson managed just a single five-yard grab. While yardage may not come easy, his red-zone usage and snap dominance make him a strong candidate to find the end zone again.

 

Longshot:

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Commanders) Terry McLaurin First TD (+1000)

As we mentioned, if the Commanders want to compete with the Packers, they will need McLaurin early and often. The Packers allowed just one TD last week, and it came out wide to Isaac Teslaa in garbage time. This could be the best way to get his confidence back after a down Week 1.

 

Longshot: (Packers) Romeo Doubs First TD (+1200)
Green Bay spreads the ball around, but Romeo Doubs has consistently been one of Jordan Love’s go-to options when it matters most. He logged a 73.9% route rate in Week 1 and was already looked for in the end zone, showing his role in the red-area remains intact. Over the last three seasons, Doubs has found the end zone 12 times in 29 games with Love under center, a track record that makes him a sneaky candidate to strike first on Sunday. With Josh Jacobs priced as the heavy favorite and other pass catchers drawing attention after Week 1 scores, Doubs offers strong value as an opening-drive target.

Parlay 1: (Commanders) +225 odds on bet365

Jayden Daniels 20+ Pass Completions

Austin Ekeler 3+ Receptions

Deebo Samuel 40+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 2: (Packers) +925 odds on Fliff

Josh Jacobs 'O' 14.5 Yard Longest Rush
Jordan Love 'U' 37.5 Yard Longest Completion
Jayden Reed ATD

QB Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford was serviceable in week 1 for the Rams in their 14-9 victory over Houston. The veteran quarterback threw for nearly 250 yards and a TD. The one thing that really stood out on Sunday was Stafford’s usage under center, a trend that continues to rise around the league. The Los Angeles QB was 12 for 15 for 126 yards (TD) and Stafford utilized play action passing on 67% of his snaps under center. His week 2 matchup against Tennessee, who will be coming off a loss could be a tough one. Despite going an abysmal 3-14 last season, the Titans allowed the fewest passing yards per game (177.3) to opposing QB’s in ’24. and last week on the road in Denver, TEN limited Bo Nix to just 1 TD on 176 pass yards while picking him off twice. They played zone coverage at a massive 90.7% rate last week, which primarily consisted of Cover 2 & 3. Last week Stafford was 10 of 15 for 100 yards vs these schemes and in ’24 he completed 77.1% of his passes in ’24 with 4 TD and 1 INT. The Titans are a team who can make you play ugly. Stafford has the ability to capitalize on these looks, but I still have doubts on his yardage total. As a team, the Rams ran for just 72 yards total last week but that didn’t keep them from staying committed to the ground game. They ran the ball 25 times while passing on 29 occasions, and Sean McVay has stressed a more balance offense this year in order to keep an aging Stafford efficient for a full season. Still, Bo Nix attempted 40 passes last week vs TEN and the Broncos had the ball for 31:56. Matthew Stafford has been one of the most efficient QB’s in the NFL against zone coverage and there I love the value on his passing attempts

Suggested Pick:

Matthew Stafford o31.5 Pass Attempts (-114)

 

RB Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams had a heavy workload in Week 1, rushing 18 times for 66 yards and scoring a touchdown, while also catching 1 pass for 3 yards. He was responsible for nearly 90% of backfield touches, ranking third among running backs. However, both starting guards are dealing with ankle injuries, which may affect his performance. The Tennessee defense allowed Denver running backs to gain 133 yards and a touchdown in their previous game, with significant yardage coming late in the game. My biggest concern with Williams here is the Titans may force Williams into more crowded situations: loaded boxes, limited lanes, and possibly some tackles for loss if penetration or defensive line disruption occurs. His yardage numbers concern me but he's a great play to find the end zone on Sunday. That said, I think Williams is a great play to find the end zone. Since 2023, his 32 scrimmage touchdowns are the most in the NFL

Suggested Pick:

Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-175)

 

WR Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua put on a masterclass in week one where he caught 10 of 11 targets for 130 yards against the Texans in week 1, and he did all of that while only running a route 67.3% of the dropbacks, since he was forced to get stitches after a hit to the head. Nacua was targeted on half of his routes last Sunday, the second most in the league. He also Nacua played a career-high 52.5% of his snaps from the slot on Sunday, where he caught 7 passes for 83 yards. It appears early on that Sean McVay already has a clear cut plan for how he wants use his star wideout. The Titans will not be an easy matchup for him, but Puka is going to see plenty of targets and Stafford’s history of accuracy against zone coverage should allow him to easily clear his line in this game. If Courtland Sutton can grab 6 balls against the Titans, then Puka should have no problem.

Suggested Pick:

Puka Nacua o6.5 Receptions (-130)

 

WR Davante Adams

Veteran wide receiver Davante Adams has a favorable matchup against the Tennessee Titans in Week 2. He hauled 4 of his 8 targets last Sunday for 51 yards, despite a difficult matchup. Adams was on the field for 90.1% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks and was targeted on 28.3% of his routes ran. He has already shown head coach Sean McVay that he clearly still has plenty of gas, not to mention speed left in the tank as he posted the 2nd best average separation score and 4th best win rate on his routes in Week 1. There's no question Puka is the alpha WR in Los Angeles but the attention he is going to draw on Sunday leaves Adams in a very fortuitous spot. Davante Adams is historically one of the most dominant wide receivers against zone coverage. His ability to adjust route breaks allows him to create openings even against complex zone schemes. Adams is flying under the radar this week and has excellent value.

Suggested Pick:

Davante Adams 50+ Receiving Yards (-171)

 

TE Tyler Higbee

There is not a single tight end on this Rams team worth even considering, and the risk is not worth the reward no matter how tempting it may look. Tyler Higbee led the the Rams TE department, running 65.9% of the team's routes but he wasn't targeted a single time in week 1. Now he will be facing a Tennessee defense that held Evan Engram to just 3 catches for 21 yards in week 1. The Titans are already picking up right where they left off in '24 vs the TE position. They allowed a miniscule 636 total receiving yards to opposing tight ends (2nd fewest in NFL) last season.

Suggested Pick:

No TE player props offered for LAR

QB Cam Ward
The number one overall pick had some bad results in a tough matchup for week 1. He finished 12 for 28 (43% completion rate) with no touchdowns and a 54.5 passer rating. He didn’t throw a pick, but was sacked a whopping 6 times and lost a fumble. Not a sparkling debut, but he predicted a poor showing in the game guide last week. Now, the matchup should get a little better, but it still isn’t a good one. I walked away with a couple big concerns, one being that Ward tends to scramble backwards, which can result in long sacks. The new offensive line also graded the 2nd worst in week 1. It often takes some time for a line to gel so they may not be doomed long term,but it doesn’t help a rookie QB out. LAR’s defense limited Stroud to just 188 passing yards, no touchdowns and one interception, while holding just a 74 passer rating. LAR’s pass rush graded out 2nd best in week 1, while their coverage unit was 5th. They ranked 2nd in pressure rate, a 52.9% rate, and the 16th shortest time to pressure. Now, HOU’s offensive line looked awful, but as we’ve discussed TEN doesn’t have a good one either. I’m expecting more struggles from the rookie QB in week 2 and he doesn’t get a nice looking matchup until week 5!

 

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 205.5 Passing Yards (-115)
‘U’ 19.5 Interceptions (-125)

 

RB Tony Pollard
Pollard finishes his debut with 18 carries for 60 yards and one catch for a team-high 29 yards. There’s good news and bad news. The good news is the volume was there. 18 carries out of a team total 21 carries, one of which was by a WR. This is clearly his backfield and should maintain almost all of the work until Spears returns from IR. Bad news is, the metrics from week 1 are awful. He averaged just 3.3 yards per carry with one fumble, ZERO explosive runs and a 55.6% stuff rate. He ran in both zone and man/gap concepts with similar success in both. Of course, it was a tough matchup for Pollard so there may be brighter days ahead. The TEN O-line graded out better as a run blocking unit (18th) and Chubb did find some success on the ground against this LAR front - 13 carries for 60 yards (4.6 yards per carry). Until we see more, Pollard is still a volume-based running back that could fall prey to a negative game script in this one. He still has plenty of juice, but I’m not looking to back him in this matchup.

 

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Calvin Ridley
Ridley only walks away from week 1 with 4 catches on 8 targets for 27 yards. Ridley remained Ward’s first read often and it looks like Ward wants to get him the ball. Ridley held a solid 8.9 aDOT while logging the most passing snaps in the offense receiving group (34). If Ward and this offense was more productive, Ridley likely would have been the biggest beneficiary of that. This LAR defense allowed the 7th lowest aDOT (6.7) in week 1 and the 8th fewest air yards (174)... in a negative game script, I may add. They also allowed the 2nd lowest yards after contact per reception (0.63). It’s one week, so we won’t read too much into these stats, but the similarities between HOU and TEN’s offenses are there. TEN could easily struggle in a similar fashion. Ward talked about building chemistry with Ridley all off-season and they did show some in week 1. I think this is a really nice opportunity for Ridley to snag at least 5 catches in this game.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (+112)

 

WR Elic Ayomanor
We had Lockett in this WR2 slot last week, but he only received a single target without a catch in week one. Meanwhile, the rookie saw a whopping 7 targets, only behind Ridley’s 8. Now, he only caught 2 of them for 13 yards, but played only 4 fewer snaps than Ridley and ran a route on 93% of them. He looks to be their primary deep threat, with the highest aDOT on the team (19.0) and a 48.5% air yardage share! LAR’s secondary didn’t allow anything deep against HOU in week 1, with the longest pass going only 23 yards and the 7th lowest aDOT allowed in week 1. I’m not running to my sportsbook to bet on Ayomanor right now, but I’ve got my eye on him over the next couple weeks. If I’m placing a bet on him this week, it’s certainly his longest reception.

Suggested Picks
LR ‘O’ 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
Like the other pass catchers, Chig didn’t do a whole lot in week 1. He reeled in 3 catches on 4 targets for 19 yards. He was still on the field plenty of passing downs, logging 33 passing down snaps and running a route on 84.8% of them. He’s not a great blocker, so despite the offensive line struggles, I don’t think they keep him inline to block. Four targets was good for 3rd highest on this offense and this looks like a matchup to remain involved. The Rams defense allowed the second most receptions to opposing TE’s, 4th most receiving yards and 3rd most targets. In week 1, they allowed a combined 7 catches for 50 yards on 9 targets to TE’s despite a very low offensive output. I think this matchup set up really well for Okonkwo. In week 1, LAR allowed the 5th highest inline target rate (23.1%). At 3.5 receptions, I like Chig to clear it.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-102)

Rams plan to have more of a balanced attack this year and more rushes ='s more time running off the clock. I think the Rams have some success in the passing game especially if the Titans run zone like they did last week. Now Cam Ward is in another bad spot facing a Rams defense who shut down the Texans last week and they pressured the QB 52% the time which is extremely concerning. Rams get a nice win but im more confident in a low scoring game here

Best Bet: Under 42.5 -125
Lean: Rams -5.5 -110
Score Prediction Rams 20 Titans 13

Kyren Williams (Rams) Anytime TD (-175)

Tennessee allowed 14 rushing TD's in '24 (4th most in NFL) and they allowed J.K. Dobbins found the end zone vs the Titans last week and Kyren Williams will continue to gobble up all of the goal line carries for the Rams 

Longshot (Titans) - Chig Okonkwo +475
This sets up as a great matchup for Chig, who is the 3rd option in this assing attack. The Rams defense allowed the second most receptions to opposing TE’s, 4th most receiving yards and 3rd most targets. In week 1, they allowed a combined 7 catches for 50 yards on 9 targets to Houston TE's. Chig is a big body who can take one to the house.

Longshot (Rams) - Kyren Williams 2+ Touchdowns (+310)

See above write up on Kyren Williams. This is a nice spot for him to get multiple goal line carries and find the end zone. 

First Touchdown Picks

Longshot (Titans) - Cam Ward +2700
We saw a mobile version of Stroud in his week 1 matchup vs this LAR defense. Cam didn't run at all in week 1, but he is certainly capable of it. We could see a solid first scripted drive by TEN and Ward could put one in via the sneak or a scramble.

Parlay #1: (Titans) +141 on FanDuel

LA Rams ML
Calvin Ridley 4+ Receptions
Elic Ayomanor to Record a 10+ Yard Reception

Parlay #2: (Rams) +209 on FanDuel

Kyren Williams Anytime TD
Puka Nacua 6+ Receptions
Davante Adams 40+ Receiving Yards

QB Trevor Lawrence
Trevor was ok in his debut, but the weather delay seemed to mute these offenses quite a bit. Then the game was out of hand and Lawrence didn’t have to do much after that. He finished going 19 for 31 (61%) with 178 passing yards and both a touchdown and interception. He also added 4 carries for 12 yards and didn’t take a sack. He gets another nice matchup this week against a weak CIN coverage unit. This CIN unit allowed the 11th most passing attempts last season (572), 4th most passing touchdowns (30) and 13th most passing yards (4,016). Flacco threw for 290 passing yards in week 1, with 31 completions and 1 passing touchdown. With a negative game script looming given a high powered offense and weak JAX defense, this game has shootout potential. I don’t think they’ll have as much success on the ground as they did last week.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 34.5 Pass Attempts (-105)
‘O’ 237.5 Pass Yards (-111)

 

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
WHOA. What an opening week for Etienne. He rushed 16 times for 149 yards, while chipping in 3 catches on 3 targets for 13 receiving yards. Coming into the season, I thought Tank Bigsby would get a majority of the rushing work. Not only did Bisgby only finish the game with 5 carries for 12 yards, but he was traded to Philly for scraps after week 1. This backfield looks like Etienne’s to lose and we know Coen likes to have a bellcow running back, at least on rushing downs. CIN did a good job bottling up CLE’s rushing attack last week. Between the running backs, CLE mustered just 40 yards on 21 carries. Last season, CIN run defense was middle of the pack in stopping the run in terms of grading and I’m expecting that this year too. This isn’t a weak matchup for Etienne, but JAX should find success through the air. Etienne looked good, but also had a ton of room to run. He averaged 3.63 yards before contact against this weak Panthers defense! The Bengals did allow a 11.1% checkdown rate in week 1, which ranks as the 7th highest. I worry about Etienne’s efficiency in what could be a negative game script, so I’ll lean receptions here.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (+106)

RB Bhayshul Tuten
Bigsby gets shipped to Philly and the books are expecting Tuten to fill the void. Tuten is a 5-foot 9-inch, 206-pound running back drafted in the fourth round this past draft out of Virginia Tech. Tuten is big and fast, which makes for an intriguing profile. At 206 pounds, he still ran the 3rd fastest 40-yard dash at 4.32 of RB’s. His workload is unknown, but books have lines on him so he should be involved. The Jaguars under this new regime traded up in the fourth to draft Tuten and trading Bigsby should mean more work as the season progresses. It's hard to know what sort of workload to expect, so I’ll pass this week. With that being said, I’m excited to watch Tuten get some work in both a rushing and receiving capacity with Bigsby out of the picture.

Suggested Picks
PASS

 

WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Looking at the box score, it looks like Thomas disappeared in this game. He finishes with one catch for 11 yards and a carry for 9. However, he did still see 7 targets and the weather delay really deflated offenses for the second half. They also didn’t need to lean on him with this game well in hand. This just has the making of a nice bounce back spot for BTJ. Let’s not forget that he finished 2025 with 75+ yards in his final 7 games. Yes, it was with Mac Jones, but Lawrence is better. Seven targets show me all I need to know and we could easily see a negative game script here. CIN’s defense ranked 7th in missed tackles per reception last season (0.15) and BTJ can do wonders after the catch. CIN also allowed the 15th highest passer rating last season. Ultimately, I think this offense will look to get BTJ involved and I think this has ladder potential.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Travis Hunter
A solid rookie debut for Hunter as a receiver, reeling in 6 of his 8 targets for 33 yards. He looks small out there, but his quickness is noticeable. Despite only an aDOT of only 7.3, they looked to use Hunter in the screen game and played him out of the slot on 71.4% of his passing snaps. His 8 targets were a team high and it was clear they tried to make it a point to get the ball in his hands. His 3.7 yards after the catch per reception is solid and I think that’s where he can shine in the offense. CIN ranked 6th last season on missed tackles forced on receptions. I’m expecting JAX to continue to find ways to get the ball in Hunter’s hands as most of his work comes on the offensive side of the ball.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (+100)

 

TE Brenton Strange
Strange had a solid debut and led the team in receiving yards. He finished the day with 4 catches on 4 targets for 59 yards. As we mentioned last week, CAR was a good matchup to exploit. In 2024, CIN’s defense was one of the best matchups for TE’s in the league. They allowed the most receptions (111), 2nd most touchdowns (10) and 3rd most receiving yards (1,114). CLE TE’s also had some success in week 1, as Fannin Jr. and Njoku combined for 15 targets, 10 catches and 100 receiving yards. It’s hard not to want to get back to Strange here in another good matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3. Receptions (+115)

QB Joe Burrow

Expectations were for Burrow to start off the season strong after a change in approach from Zac Taylor. Burrow took 25 dropbacks in the preseason, compared to only 8 in the previous 3 season. However, week 1 was not pretty for Joe Burrow against the Browns. He threw 113 yards and 1 TD. He ranked 23^rd in ANY/A amongst starting QBs in week 1 (4.42). Burrow was pressured on 42.9% of his dropbacks, 7^th highest rate in week 1. He’ll play a Jaguars defense that was 3^rd best in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. The Jaguars played the 10^th highest rate of two-high safeties in week 1 and the Bengals saw the 3^rd highest rate of two-high last season due to the deep threats of Ja’Marr and Tee Higgins. Burrow had mixed splits vs two-high last season, averaging 7.44 YPA, a 72.6% completion rate and a 112.5 QB rating. That compares to 7.67 YPA, a 68% completion rate and a 103.8 QB rating against single-high. One positive heading into week 2 is that the Jaguars were only able to pressure Bryce Young at a 35% rate in week 1. This should be a bit easier of a matchup for the offensive line to protect Burrow. We have seen Burrow time and time again struggle in week 1 but bounce back in week 2. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 4 of his last 5 week 2 games. I am betting on this offense to bounce back. His passing yards and passing touchdown lines are already inflated, but I want to target his longest completion as he hit this line at a 71% rate last year.

Suggested Pick:

Over 35.5 Longest Completion (-120)

40+ Longest Completion (+140)

50+ Longest Completion (+375)

 

RB Chase Brown

In week 1 against the Browns, Chase Brown received an elite workload, carrying the ball 21 times, but only gained 43 rushing yards on 2.05 YPC. He also caught 2 of 3 targets for 8 receiving yards. He did end up scoring a rushing touchdown from the 5-yard line in the 1^st quarter. Chase Brown played on 73.5% of the Bengals offensive snaps, only giving way to Samaje Perine on some obvious passing situations. Chase Brown will have a relatively easier matchup in week 2, as the Jaguars were middle of the pack in EPA/Rush allowed in week 1, compared to the 2^nd best ranked Browns Chase faced in week 1. Chuba Hubbard rushed 16 times for 57 yards and caught 3 of 5 targets for 32 yards and a touchdown. One negative for Chase Brown in week 1 was that he was not on the field for as many passing plays. He had a 42.9% route participation rate compared to 63.5% from week 10 onward last season. Samaje Perine received some of that work. The Jaguars allowed the 2^nd most receiving yards to RB last season and allowed 36 receiving yards to the position in week 1, so this would be an important development if Samaje continues to steal some of Brown’s work. My preferred look for Brown last year was the rush+receiving combination, but I’m a little hesitant after seeing his week 1 workload. He’s still projected to be a huge part of this offense, but I prefer targeting TDs in week 2 against a team that allowed the 5^th most to the position last year.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (-150)

2+ Touchdowns (+380)

1^st Touchdown Scorer (+450)

 

WR Ja’Marr Chase

Week 1 was an ugly game for the Bengals offense. Chase ran a route on 92.6% of dropbacks and caught 2 of 5 targets for 26 receiving yards. He averaged 1.04 YPRR and was targeted on 20% of his routes. He led the team with a 35.7% 1^st-read rate. He split time lining up out wide and in the slot, at 68% and 32% rates respectively. The Bengals are notorious for slow starts and the Browns defense may be legit, I wouldn’t put too much stock on week 1. The Jaguars played the 10^th highest rate of two-high safeties in week 1 and the Bengals saw the 3^rd highest rate of two-high last season due to the deep threats of Ja’Marr and Tee Higgins. Last season, Chase averaged 2.04 YPRR, was targeted on 22% of his routes and had a 1^st-read rate of 33.5% against two-high safeties. Those are negative splits compared to single-high, where he averaged 2.94 YPRR, 28% TPRR and a 35.6% 1^st-read rate. I expect the Jaguars to run more two-high than single-high, but my confidence level is not that high with such a small sample size from the Jaguars coaching staff.

Suggested Pick:

Over 25.5 Longest Reception (-115)

30+ Longest Reception (+140)

40+ Longest Reception (+375)

50+ Longest Reception (+850)

Anytime Touchdown (-120)

 

WR Tee Higgins

Week 1 was an abysmal start for the Bengals offense. Tee Higgins ran a route on 88.9% of his routes and caught 2 of 3 targets for 23 receiving yards. He averaged 0.96 YPRR and was targeted on 13% of his routes. He was tied for 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 21.4%. He primarily lined up out wide, at an 87.5% rate. I wouldn’t put too much stock in this week 1 performance as the Browns defense may be legit and the Bengals have been notorious for slow starts. The Jaguars played the 10^th highest rate of two-high safeties in week 1 and the Bengals saw the 3^rd highest rate of two-high last season due to the deep threats of Ja’Marr and Tee Higgins. Higgins averaged 2.27 YPRR, was targeted on 23% of his routes and had a 29.3% 1^st-read rate against two-high last season. That compares to 1.96 YPRR, 26% TPRR and a 30.3% 1^st-read rate against single-high. I expect the Jaguars to run more two-high than single-high, but my confidence level is not that high with such a small sample size from the Jaguars coaching staff.

Suggested Pick:

Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Anytime Touchdown (+120)

 

TE Noah Fant/Mike Gesicki/Drew Sample

Week 1 was a TE carousel for the Bengals, as Fant, Gesicki and Sample ran 12, 9 and 10 routes respectively. None of them had a route participation rate over 45%. Fant caught 4 of 5 targets for 26 yards and a TD. Gesicki caught 1 of 3 targets for 14 yards. Sample was unable to catch his lone target. Fant was most productive in week 1, but I can’t trust any of these guys until we see more concentrated playing time for the Bengals TEs. This offense runs through Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins when they are at its best, and I’m betting on that happening in week 2.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

We all know how bad that Bengals defense can be and I think this Jags offense led by trevor Lawrence is underrated. Joe Burrow is 0-5 in Week 2 games while the combined score of these games were 65,37,37,51,51. I think this is gonna be a back and forth really close game that forces the total to go over. I didnt love how that Bengals offense looked in Week 1 and the Jags have a lot of weapons on the offensive end. Last year Burrow was 3-5 @Home and the totals of these games were 54,30,82,65,54,79,71,26 and the 2 that went under were against the Browns & Patriots.

Best Bet: Over 49.5 -110
Lean: Jags +3.5 -120
Score Prediction Jags 27 Bengals 30

Anytime TD Picks

Brian Thomas (Jaguars) +130
Going back to the well on Thomas, as he should be the focal point of this passing attack with a better price than last week. He has 1 of 2 endzone targets last week and this game has shootout potential with how these two defenses have played.

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) -120

Chase was the best receiver in the NFL last season, scoring a touchdown in 65% of games. The Bengals have a trend of starting slow in week 1, which was the case again this season against the Browns in an odd game flow with lower than usual time of possession. I love Chase to bounce back with a touchdown in week 2 after looking amazing in preseason. Vegas also agrees that this offense will bounce back as the O/U is the highest in week 2 with the Bengals 3.5-point favorites. This offense goes how Burrow and Chase go.

First TD Picks

Branton Strange (Jaguars) +2200

CIN was an elite matchup for TE's last season, allowing the 2nd most touchdowns to them (10). Strange showed last week he would be involvec plenty and this is a nice price for the 3rd or 4th option in thr passing attack.

Chase Brown (Bengals) +450

Once Zach Moss went down with an injury midseason last year, Chase Brown has had an elite role in this backfield. Brown scored a TD in 8 of 12 games last season with a 40%+ snap share. 5 of those TDs came in the 1^st quarter. Love this look for Brown, who started off the scoring in week 1 against the Browns. This is a much better matchup in week 2.

 

Parlay #1 +1400

Chase Brown 1st Touchdown

Ja'Marr chase Anytime Touchdown

Parlay #2: (Jaguars) +158 on FanDuel
Trevor Lawrence 200+ Passing Yards
Brenton Strange 2+ Receptions
Brian Thomas Jr. 80+ Receiving Yards

QB Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco opened the season aggressively in Cleveland’s loss to Cincinnati, throwing 45 times and completing 31 passes for 290 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. He directed an offense that leaned heavily on the pass, ranking among the league’s highest in neutral passing rate, and that approach is unlikely to change. His Week 2 matchup against Baltimore brings a much different challenge. The Ravens struggled in Week 1 as Josh Allen carved them up for 394 yards and 2 scores, but historically this defense has been one of the NFL’s toughest, allowing the second-fewest yards per attempt and the lowest passer rating over the back half of last season. Baltimore also leaned into man coverage on 38.5% of snaps in Week 1, the fifth-highest rate in the league. That aggressive style forces quarterbacks to fit throws into tight windows and tests receivers’ ability to separate, an area where Cleveland’s weapons will be put to the test. For Flacco, sustaining efficiency against pressure while avoiding turnovers will be critical in what projects as a far stingier matchup than his opener.

Suggested Play:
'U' 249.5 Passing Yards (–110)

 

RB Dylan Sampson

Cleveland leaned on rookie Dylan Sampson in his debut, and he responded with the heaviest workload in the backfield. Sampson handled 63% of the team’s carries (12 for 29 yards) and caught all 8 of his targets for 64 receiving yards, showing clear trust from Joe Flacco in the short passing game. Jerome Ford actually led the group in snaps (41 to Sampson’s 33) and ran more routes (25 to 14), but he saw just 7 touches, while Raheim Sanders vultured a short-yardage touchdown. Quinshon Judkins, who joined just before Week 1, could begin to factor in soon, particularly on early downs, but for now Sampson has carved out the most reliable role. He now faces a Baltimore defense that remains one of the toughest fronts in football. The Ravens allowed the fewest rushing yards per game to running backs last season (63.8) and ranked top five in both adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.66) and fantasy points allowed. Even so, Buffalo’s backs were able to scrape together 127 total yards and a touchdown against them last week, thanks largely to work in the passing game—an area where Sampson has already proven himself. If Cleveland wants to move the ball on the ground, Sampson’s quickness in space and usage as a receiver may be their most viable path.

Suggested Play:

'O' 3.5 Receptions (–120)

 

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy opened the season as Cleveland’s lead receiver, catching 5 passes for 66 yards on 8 targets while running a route on 94% of dropbacks. Dating back to last year, he has recorded a reception of 20+ yards in 10 of his last 11 games, showing a consistent ability to create chunk plays. Baltimore presents a familiar opponent—Jeudy posted 5/79 and 6/63 in two matchups against the Ravens last season. This year’s Ravens defense is leaning even more into man coverage, using it on 50.4% of snaps in Week 1 after ranking 11th in usage last season. Against man looks last year, Jeudy managed 1.53 yards per route run on nearly 200 routes, steady production that pairs with his knack for finding soft spots downfield. With Baltimore’s pressure pushing Cleveland to take shots when windows open, Jeudy’s speed and separation skills give him a clear path to another explosive gain.

Suggested Play:
'O' 21.5 Yard Longest Reception (–110)

 

WR Cedric Tillman

Cedric Tillman opened 2025 with 5 catches for 52 yards and a touchdown on 8 targets, good for a 17.8% target share and a 30.7% share of the Browns’ air yards. He was also second on the team in first-read share at 24%, tied with Harold Fannin Jr., but his efficiency was again a concern. Tillman managed just 1.18 yards per route run and 0.068 first downs per route run in Week 1, continuing a trend of modest per-route production from last season. Now he faces a Ravens defense that leaned on man coverage 50.4% of the time in Week 1 (fifth-highest in the NFL) and is unlikely to give him the same breathing room he saw in last year’s breakout game against Baltimore (7/99/2). While the Ravens’ secondary was beaten by Buffalo’s perimeter wideouts in the opener, allowing the 14th-most yards per target to the position, Tillman’s role in Cleveland’s offense comes with volatile efficiency. With Jerry Jeudy firmly established as Joe Flacco’s top option and Dylan Sampson active underneath, Tillman’s chances of delivering another big day appear slim.

Suggested Play:
'U' 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Harold Fannin/TE David Njoku

Cleveland wasted no time integrating Harold Fannin into the offense, featuring him on the opening drive with three early catches and even a wildcat snap. He finished with a team-high 9 targets (20%), converting them into 7 receptions for 63 yards on a 60% route share as the No. 2 tight end. David Njoku still held the lead role, logging a 79% route share and catching 3 balls for 37 yards on 6 targets. Both now face a Baltimore defense that leaned heavily on man coverage in Week 1 (50.4%, fifth-highest) and historically funnels throws underneath against tight ends. Njoku’s track record in this matchup is notable, as he averaged 1.18 yards per route run against man last year, earned a healthy target rate per route (26%), and posted 5/61/1 against Baltimore in 2024. Dalton Kincaid also found the end zone against this defense last week. With Flacco showing trust in both Fannin and Njoku in Week 1, and the Ravens’ coverage tightening down on perimeter receivers, Cleveland’s tight ends stand out as prime red-zone options.

Suggested Play:
David Njoku Anytime Touchdown (+350)

Harold Fannin Anytime Touchdown (+420)

QB Lamar Jackson
Despite the epic collapse by this Ravens team last week, Lamar still played great. He threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns. He went 14 for 19 (74%) and also added 6 carries for 70 yards and a rushing touchdown with his legs. He’s been known to use his legs against this CLE defense in the past. In the last 4 matchups with this divisional opponent, he’s gone 9 for 63, 8 for 46, 8 for 41 and 9 for 27. So he’s cleared this line in each of L4 vs CLE. He’s also cleared this passing line of 212. Yards in his last 3 vs CLE and has only thrown 1+ interceptions on 1 of the last four matchups. Lamar continues to be careful with the ball. He led the league last season in lowest turnover worthy throws and did not record a turnover worthy throw in week 1 vs BUF. There are so many ways you can play Lamar and feel comfortable. Typically these in division AFC North games are low scoring, so I’ll bet on Lamar using his legs and keeping thr ball out of harm's way.

 

Suggested Picks
'U’ 0.5 Interceptions (-155)
‘O’ 7.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)

 

RB Derrick Henry
We learned very quickly in this game that Henry is not slowing down in his age 31 season. He rattled off 169 rushing yards on 18 carries with 2 touchdowns. He also added in a catch for 13 yards. However, he did have a big fumble late in the game that proved costly for this Ravens implosion. CLE was solid against the run in week 1. In 21 carries by Chase Brown, they only allowed 43 yards and a touchdown. Of running backs with at least 15 carries in week 1, CLE held Chase Brown to the second lowest yards per carry (2.05). In two of the last three matchups against CLE, Henry has been held to 75 rushing yards or less in 2 of them. I’m not in the market of fading Henry, but the lines are too inflated to back given the matchup. I’ll use his anytime touchdown as a parlay piece and move on.

 

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown (-200)

 

WR Zay Flowers
Flowers was so good in week 1 against a banged up BUF secondary. He finished with 7 catches on 9 targets for 143 yards and a touchdown. His ability to get open was insane and Lamar came through with throws. The next highest WR in terms of receptions was two! CIN’s passing game was shut down in week 1, but I don’t think we’ll see the same resistance despite the 4th highest coverage rating this week. BAL presents a legitimate 2-way attack, where you have to respect the elite run game they have. That opens up so much in the passing game, especially when Lamar can buy extra time with his legs. Flowers not only lead all WR’s in week 1 in yardage, but also in most separation metrics. I think we could be seeing a legit breakout from the 3rd year WR.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Rashod Bateman
I had high hopes for Bateman this season, but week 1 was a disappointment, especially given 40 points were scored. He finished 2nd in the pass catching room in targets (4), but only reeled in 2 catches for 10 yards. In a run-first offense, there is going to be a lot of boom or bust in his game and he may become reliant on scoring the TD. In his last matchup vs CLE he caught  balls for 76 receiving yards. Last season CLE did allow the highest aDOT in the league to opposing WR’s (9.7) which makes Bateman interested as a deep ball threat. He’s had a reception of 18+ yards in all 3 matchups against this CLE defense and we could see it again.

Suggested Picks
LR ‘O’ 17.5 Yards (-115)

WR DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins caught a couple passes in week one for 35 yards and a touchdown. I’m not completely sure what we make of that since it was only on two targets. Hopkins played in the slot the most of any WR this past week (46.2%). CLE allowed the 2nd lowest slot target rate last season and although it was encouraging to see Hopkins score, he’s an avoid or under for me this week.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE Mark Andrews
Yuck is how I would describe his week 2 performance. This looks like last year’s slow start all over again, but with Likely out Andrews should be taking advantage of this opportunity. The Ravens scored 40 points and Andrews finished with just one catch on one target for 5 yards. INSANE. In the last four matchups against this CLE defense, he’s had 35+ receiving yards in all of them, but he just looked irrelevant in week 1. Generally speaking, last season CLE’s defense was bottom 15 in receptions allowed to TE’s, yards and only allowed 6 TD’s. Until we see more from Andrews, he’s a fade candidate in week 2.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-118)

I'm gonna keep this one short. The Ravens will be extremely motivated after that 4Q collapse to the Bills last week. The Ravens have had success against the Browns and I don't expect anything different here. Ravens in a blowout. I don't like anything with the total because I don't trust the Browns offense here. 

Best Bet: Ravens -11.5 -110
Lean: Ravens 'O' 26.5 Pts -155
Score Prediction Browns 14 Ravens 31

Anytime TD

Best Bet: (Browns) David Njoku +355
David Njoku played a clear lead role in Week 1 with a 79% route share and 6 targets, while Harold Fannin rotated behind him. Njoku has a strong history against Baltimore, including a 61-yard, 1-TD performance last season, and the Ravens just gave up a score to Dalton Kincaid in Week 1. With Baltimore leaning heavily on man coverage and Flacco looking for reliable red-zone options, Njoku stands out as Cleveland’s best bet to find the end zone.

Best Bet: (Ravens)

Lamar rushed for a TD in week 1, and continues to use his legs when he needs to. I have fears that this will be a low scoring game and BAL will not be able to just let up in the second half. BAL needs to win this game after dropping one to BUF, so let's bet on Lamar taking it into his own hands at some point.

First TD

Best Bet: (Browns) Jerry Jeudy +1500

Jerry Jeudy is firmly established as Cleveland’s WR1, logging a 94% route share and drawing 8 targets in the opener. He’s been consistent dating back to last season, clearing 63 yards in 10 of his last 11 games and hitting explosive plays in nearly all of them. Baltimore leaned heavily on man coverage in Week 1 (50.4%, fifth-highest in the NFL), a look that puts pressure on corners to stay with precise route-runners like Jeudy. With Joe Flacco pushing the ball his way early and often, Jeudy has a strong chance to strike first in this divisional matchup.

Best Bet: (Ravens) Derrick Henry +375
Man, this is square, but this is a solid price for Henry. This is obviously a run-first offense and his anytime touchdown sits at -200 or worse. He's coming off a 2 touchdown game in week 1 and has 1+ TD's in each of the last two matchup vs CLE.

Parlay #1: (Ravens) +214 on FanDuel
Lamar Jackson 40+ Rushing
Zay Flowers 4+ Receptions
Henry Anytime TD

QB Josh Allen

In week 1, Josh reminded the league why he won MVP last year, fueling a comeback victory against the Ravens, throwing 394 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averaged 8.57 YPA and had a 112 QB rating. He also ran the ball 14 times for 30 yards and 2 rushing TDs. Last season, he threw for 3,731 yards and 28 passing TDs, as well as 531 yards on the ground and 12 rushing TDs. Allen and the Bills ultimately came up short of the Super Bowl last season losing to the Chiefs 32-29 in an AFC Championship thriller. Josh averaged 219.5 passing yards per game (19^th most), 7.72 yards per attempt (9^th most), 0.72 fantasy points per drop back (3^rd most), and a 101.4 QB rating (8^th highest). Matchup wise, he’ll face a Jets defense that was 10^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. The Jets played the 2^nd highest rate of man coverage in the NFL week 1 with new DC Steve Wilks. Last season, Josh Allen averaged 7.43 YPA, a 56% completion rate and 111.4 QB rating vs man coverage. That compares to a 68.5% completion rate, 8.12 YPA and a 93.3 QB rating against zone coverage. With the Bills being 6.5-point favorites, I’m not sure how much the Bills will need to throw, so I’m staying away from his passing props. It’s also worth noting his scramble rate was higher vs man compared to zone, at 8.4% and 7.6% rates respectively. His rush line feels a tad high at 32.5, but I do like his anytime TD odds.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime TD (-110)

2+ TDs (+550)

 

RB James Cook

Cook ran the ball 13 times for 44 rush yards and 1 TD in week 1 against the Ravens. He averaged a pedestrian 3.38 YPC. Cook received a 57.7% snap share, in line with his 54.8% snap share he saw from weeks 1 to 10 last season. He’ll face a Jets defense that was 12^th in EPA/Rush allowed in week 1. They allowed the 9^th fewest YPC to man/gap run concepts (2.2) as well as the 9^th fewest YPC to zone run concepts (3.07). Last season, 55.1% of Cook’s runs were zone concept, where he averaged 4.54 YPC. 44.9% were in man/gap concept, averaging a more productive 5.28 YPC. The Bills are 6.5-point favorites in this game, so the game script could favor the run game. Cook averaged 14.4 rush attempts and 73.4 rushing yards per game in wins compared to 11.6 rush attempts and 50.8 rushing yards per game in losses. I lean over on his rushing props based on the projected game script and an average projected matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Over Rush Attempts Ladder (Line not available)

 

WR Khalil Shakir

In week 1, Shakir ran a route on 82.7% of drop backs, was targeted 8 times, catching 6 for 64 receiving yards. He averaged 1.49 YPRR, was targeted on 19% of his routes, and had a surprisingly low 1^st-read rate of 11.5%. The usage was encouraging for Shakir after missing time with an ankle injury right before the start of the regular season. Shakir primarily lined up out of the slot, at an 81.4% rate. Matchup wise, he’ll face a Jets defense that was 10^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. The Jets played the 2^nd highest rate of man coverage in the NFL week 1 with new DC Steve Wilks. This would be bearish for Shakir if that trend continues. He averaged 1.53 YPRR and just a 15.4% 1^st-read rate against man in week 1. He struggled against man last season, averaging 1.67 YPRR, 20% TPRR and a 16.8% 1^st-read rate. That compared to 2.68 YPRR, 31% TPRR and a 30.1% 1^st-read rate against zone. Turning to the alignment matchup, this is a bit brighter. The Jets allowed the 3^rd most receiving yards to the slot in week 1 and we’re middle of the pack last season. Sauce Gardner, one of the best defensive backs in the league, primarily plays outside, so Shakir likely doesn’t see much of him.

Suggested Pick:

Under 19.5 Yard Longest Reception (-110)

 

WR Keon Coleman

Coleman excelled in his first game of his second season, catching 8 of 11 targets for 112 yards and a TD. He averaged 2.60 YPRR, was targeted on 26% of his routes, and far surpassed all other Bills’ weapons with a 34.6% 1^st-read rate. His large frame and jump ball ability positions him as a prototypical X receiver, as he lined up out wide on 90.7% of his routes. Matchup wise, he’ll face a Jets defense that was 10^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. The Jets played the 2^nd highest rate of man coverage in the NFL week 1 with new DC Steve Wilks. This would be bullish for Keon if this trend continues. Coleman averaged 3.68 YPRR and was targeted on 32% of his routes against man week 1. Last season, Keon averaged 2.08 YPRR, 27% TPRR and a 25.2% 1^st-read rate vs man. That is compared to 1.82 YPRR, 14% TPRR and a 15.5% 1^st-read rate vs zone. Turning to the alignment matchup, the Jets allowed the 5^th fewest receiving yards to wide alignment week 1 and allowed the 8^th least in 2024. He likely matches up against one of the best defensive backs in the league in Sauce Gardner quite a lot. Sauce ranked number 1 in PFF grade amongst CBs week 1. The man factor is extremely bullish, but I’m a little worried about Sauce depending on how often he lines up against Keon. Feels like a boom or bust.

Suggested Pick:

Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer was 3^rd on the team in route rate in week 1 at 69.2%. He caught 5 of 9 targets for 61 receiving yards. He averaged 1.69 YPRR and was targeted on 25% of his routes. His 15.4% 1^st-read rate was 2^nd highest on the Bills. He primarily lined up out wide at an 80.6% rate. Matchup wise, he’ll face a Jets defense that was 10^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. The Jets played the 2^nd highest rate of man coverage in the NFL week 1 with new DC Steve Wilks. Palmer caught 2 targets for 40 yards against man in week 1. Last season as a member of the Chargers, Palmer saw a higher target rate but lower production against man compared to zone. Turning to the alignment matchup, the Jets allowed the 5^th fewest receiving yards to wide alignment week 1 and allowed the 8^th least in 2024.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid caught 4 of 4 targets for 48 receiving yards and a TD in week 1. He averaged 1.66 YPRR and was targeted on 14% of his routes. The concern here was that he only ran a route on 55.8% of dropbacks. He had a 57.7% route participation rate in 2024, down from 68.3% in 2023. He split time with Knox, who ran a route on 40.4% of dropbacks. Kincaid lined up all over, 62.1% of his routes came from the slot, 20.7% inline and 17.2% out wide. Matchup wise, he’ll face a Jets defense that was 10^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. The Jets played the 2^nd highest rate of man coverage in the NFL week 1 with new DC Steve Wilks. Kincaid caught 2 targets for 33 yards against man in week 1. Last season, he averaged 1.67 YPRR, 31% TPRR and a 23.1% 1^st-read rate against man compared to 1.81 YPRR, 26% TPRR and a 19.2% 1^st-read rate vs zone. The Jets allowed the 3^rd most receiving yards to the slot in week 1 and we’re middle of the pack last season. They allowed just 9 receiving yards to inline week 1 but were middle of the pack last year. Biggest concern for Kincaid is his lack of playing time. At just a 30.5 yard receiving line, I lean over.

Suggested Pick

Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

QB Justin Fields

Fields surpassed expectations in his first game with the Jets, throwing 218 passing yards on 9.91 YPA and 1 TD against the Steelers. He also had 12 carries for 48 yards and 2 rushing TDs. Last season, he started the first 6 games for Pittsburgh, before they turned to Russell Wilson. He averaged 184.3 passing yards per game, 6.91 YPA, 93.9 QB rating and threw 5 TDs. He also averaged 38.5 rushing yards per game and found the end zone 5 times from his feet. He’ll face a Bills defense that was 5^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. They are 6.5-point underdogs, so Fields may be forced to throw the ball if the Bills take an early lead. Lamar Jackson torched this defense, and the Jets offense look to play a similar play style, although this is a much lesser version of the Ravens. I don’t know how much faith I put in Fields’ arm week to week, but I am interested in his rushing potential in this matchup. Lamar had 6 rushes for 70 yards week 1. 10 of 12 rush attempts for Fields were designed, not scrambles. Fields has surpassed his 41.5 rushing yard prop in 73% of his last 30 games when he has a 50% snap share. When he’s had at least 8 rush attempts, he’s over this line at an 87% rate L30. Looking at the tape, OC Tanner Engstrand was very creative in his play calling game 1, the Jets may have found something.

Suggested Pick:

Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

50+ Rush Yards (+160)

60+ Rush Yards (+280)

70+ Rush Yards (+450)

 

RB Breece Hall

Breece rushed for the 3^rd most rushing yards in the league week 1 against the Steelers, with 19 carries for 107 yards. He also caught 2 receptions on 4 targets for 38 receiving yards. Breece saw a 58.1% snap share, which was down from his 72.7% snap share last season. All indications from Aaron Glenn and the new coaching staff were that this would be a committee backfield, which did ended up being the case in week 1, but I came away after that game feeling much more bullish about Breece compared to his trough during the offseason.  He’ll face a Bills defense that was gashed by the run in week 1 against Derrick Henry and the Ravens, ranking 4^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed. They allowed 108 rushing yards particularly against outside zone runs. Hall ran for 78 yards on 7.09 YPC on outside zone run concepts week 1. However, negative game script is a risk as the Jets are 6.5-point underdogs. It's a 1-week sample size, but new OC Tanner Engstrand made this Jets offense look dynamic with a run first attack. The added threat of Justin Fields running may open more running lanes for Breece. As 6.5-point underdogs, Breece’s receiving ability could be intriguing, but him only running 8 routes in week 1 is a bit of a concern. The Bills allowed the 2^nd most receiving yards to RB last season, but the Ravens backfield did not have any success in this department week 1.

Suggested Pick:

Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Anytime TD (+130)

 

RB Braelon Allen

In week 1, Braelon Allen carried the ball 6 times for only 9 rush yards, averaged a putrid 1.5 YPC. He did, however, find the end zone on an 8-yard carry. Despite offseason chatter about this being a 50-50 backfield between him and Breece, he only saw a 30.6% snap share as Isaiah Davis took a lot of the passing down work when Breece needed a breather. Despite the TD, he was inefficient with his rush attempts. Breece ended up as the only RB with a carry inside the 5-yard line. He’ll face a Bills defense that was gashed by the run in week 1 against Derrick Henry and the Ravens, ranking 4^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed. However, negative game script is a risk as the Jets are 6.5-point underdogs. The Bills allowed 108 yards on 9.8 YPC to outside zone runs in week 1. Allen had positive splits in this concept last season, averaging 4.00 YPC. That being said, I cannot trust the volume in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

WR Garrett Wilson

Wilson had a solid connection with his former college QB Justin Fields in week 1. He caught 7 of 7 targets for 95 receiving yards and a TD. He averaged 5.00 YPRR and was targeted on 37% of his routes. He had an insane 44.4% 1^st-read rate. He split time lining up out wide and in the slot, at 52.6% and 47.4% rates respectively. Tanner Engstrand is much more committed to moving Wilson around compared to last year’s coaching staff. The Jets used pre-snap motion on 64% of Fields’ dropbacks (9^th highest), and Fields had a 77% completion rate throwing for 140 yards with motion. He’ll face a Bills defense that was 5^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. Zay Flowers caught 7 of 9 targets for 143 yards and a TD against the Bills in week 1. The Jets are 6.5-point underdogs, so Fields may be forced to throw the ball if the Bills take an early lead. The biggest issue with Wilson is that the Jets don’t have any other reliable options. If the Bills decide to key in on Garrett, Fields doesn’t have anywhere else to go.

Suggested Pick:

Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

70+ Receiving Yards (+120)

80+ Receiving Yards (+180)

 

WR Josh Reynolds

Reynolds was the clear WR2 in week 1 for the Jets. He ran a route on 90% of dropbacks. However, he only saw 1 target, catching it for 13 receiving yards. He lined up almost exclusively out wide, at a 94.4% rate. This offense had the lowest pass rate over expected in week 1, and I expect this offense to continue to be extremely run heavy. Don’t expect Reynolds to see much volume, even as WR2 for the Jets. He’ll face a Bills defense that was 5^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. Zay Flowers caught 7 of 9 targets for 143 yards and a TD against the Bills in week 1. The Jets are 6.5-point underdogs, so Fields may be forced to throw the ball if the Bills take an early lead. His receiving line is set at only 15.5 yards but considering he may not even see a target it’s hard to bet either side.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

TE Mason Taylor

Mason Taylor ran a route on 80% of dropbacks in week 1, elite for a rookie TE in his first NFL action. However, he only saw 1 target, catching it for 20 receiving yards. He lined up inline on 75% of his routes. This offense had the lowest pass rate over expected in week 1, and I expect this offense to continue to be extremely run heavy. That being said, the Jets are 6.5-point underdogs in week 2, so Fields may be forced to drop back and pass.  He’ll face a Bills defense that was 5^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. However, Mark Andrews only saw 1 target for 5 yards in the week 1 matchup against the Bills. I lean under until he proves to be a trusted target for Fields.

 

Suggested Pick:

Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Bills just made a miraculous comeback against the preseason Super Bowl favorites, the Baltimore Ravens. Early in the game, the defense could not stop Lamar and Derrick Henry, but they finally figured it out in the 4th. Josh Allen, last season's MVP, was unbelievable. A team that has high hopes for the super bowl vs a team that is unlikely to make the playoffs. I'll take the Bills by a touchdown.

 

Best Bet (Bills -6.5)
Lean (Under 46.5)
Bills 27 Jets 17

Anytime TD 

Josh Allen (Bills) -105

He’s scored a touchdown in 57% of his last 30 games and faces a Jets team he scored in both matchups last season. The Jets allowed the 2^nd most TDs to QB last season. Josh also has a higher propensity to scramble against man coverage, which the Jets ran at the 2^nd highest frequency week 1.

Breece Hall (Jets) +130

Breece received the 1 RB carry inside the 5 yard line in week 1 despite offseason speculation that Braelon Allen would take this role. Braelon had rush attempts for just 9 times, while Breece had 19 carries for 107 yards. The Bills were also torched by the outside zone concept week 1, which accounted for 78 of Hall's rush yards in week 1. Multiple ways for Breece to score, I like this price!

First TD

Josh Allen (Bills) +600

Same analysis as anytime touchdown, he also had a 1Q touchdown in both matchups against the Jets last year.

Breece Hall (Jets) +850

Same analysis as above, great matchup for Breece to score. The Bills allowed 169 rushing yards and 2 TDs to Henry in week 1. One of these was the first TD for the Ravens.

Parlay #1 +700

Breece Hall Anytime TD

Justin Fields Over 41.5 Rushing Yards

James Cook Over 58.5 Rush Yards

 

Parlay #2 +1050

Josh Allen Anytime TD

Justin Fields 60+ Rushing Yards

Garrett Wilson 60+ Receiving Yards

QB Drake Maye

Drake Maye started his 2^nd season throwing for 287 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 interception against the Raiders. He ranked 18^th amongst starting QBs in ANY/A in week 1 (5.02). Expectations were for new OC Josh McDaniels to draw up more designed runs for the mobile Drake Maye, but only 1 of his 4 carries were designed and he ended with just 11 rush yards. He’ll face a Miami defense that was 3^rd worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. The Dolphins forced the 3^rd lowest pressure rate in the NFL in week 1. Last season, Maye averaged 6.86 YPA and had a 72.4% completion rate when not pressured compared to 6.39 YPA and a 51.1% completion rate when pressure. The Dolphins played the 2^nd highest rate of two-high safeties in week 1 and had the 6^th highest frequency last season as well with the same DC Anthony Weaver. Maye had positive splits vs two-high last season, averaging 7.52 YPA, a 70.7% completion rate and a 104.9 QB rating. That compares to 6.13 YPA, a 63.4% completion rate and a 75.2 QB rating against single-high. The Dolphins allowed 7 rushes for 26 yards and 2 rushing TDs to Daniel Jones last week. They allowed the 2^nd fewest rushing yards to QB last season, however. Maye rushed 5 times for 26 yards in his 1 previous matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Over 207.5 Passing Yards (-115)

225+ Passing Yards (+125)

250+ Passing Yards (+230)

275+ Passing Yards (+425)

 

RB Treveyon Henderson

The rookie RB carried the ball 5 times for 27 yards week 1 against the Raiders. He averaged 5.4 YPC compared to Rhamondre’s 2.14 YPC. He was a major part of the passing game, catching all 6 targets but could only turn it into 24 yards. Getting targeted on 35% of routes in his 1^st NFL game is elite volume, expecting him to do more with his opportunities in week 2. Rhamondre saw the bulk of the snap share, as Treveyon only played 33.8% of the snaps. However, I expect that rate to rise as the season goes on, especially if he continues his trend of outperforming Rhamondre’s production. Treveyon will face a Miami defense that ranked 7^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed in week 1. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 71 yards and caught 3 passes for 27 receiving yards in that week 1 matchup. The Dolphins also allowed the 5^th highest explosive run rate last season (5.9%). Treveyon did not have any explosive runs in his NFL debut but he led all backs in his collegiate class in yards per carry (7.6) and explosive run rate (14.6%) last year. Vrabel mentioned after the game vs the Raiders that the Patriots needed to run the ball better and I expect Vrabel to turn to Henderson for an increased role in week 2. I’m not one for narrative plays, but he did just announce his engagement to his girlfriend, just saying!

Suggested Pick:

Over 52.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-115)

75+ Rush+Rec Yards (+220)

100+ Rush+Rec Yards (700)

Anytime Touchdown (+160)

2+ Touchdowns (+1400)

 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre rushed the ball 7 times for 15 yards in week 1 against the Raiders, averaging just 2.14 YPC. He caught 2 of 3 targets for 12 receiving yards. Rhamondre was RB1 in week 1 with a 66.2% snap share, but his production was concerning. Expect his role to decline as the season progresses. Rhamondre will face a Miami defense that ranked 7^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed in week 1. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 71 yards and caught 3 passes for 27 receiving yards in that week 1 matchup. The Dolphins also allowed the 5^th highest explosive run rate last season (5.9%). Despite that, Stevenson had just a 3.4% explosive run rate last season. I expect Treveyon to inch closer to a 50-50 split in week 2, I’d fade Rhamondre.

Suggested Pick:

Under 46.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-118)

 

WR Stefon Diggs

Diggs ran a route on 61.9% of dropbacks in week 1. This was Stefon’s 1^st game post ACL surgery, expecting the Patriots to slowly ease Diggs in. He caught 6 of 7 targets for 57 receiving yards. He averaged 2.19 YPRR and was targeted on 27% of his routes. His 25% 1^st-read rate led the team. He lined up out wide 73.1% of his routes and 26.9% from the slot. He’ll face a Miami defense that was 3^rd worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. The Dolphins forced the 3^rd lowest pressure rate in the NFL in week 1. When Maye operated in a clean pocket in week 1, Diggs averaged 2.53 YPRR, was targeted on 27% of his routes and had a 1^st-read rate of 18.2%. The Dolphins played the 2^nd highest rate of two-high safeties in week 1 and had the 6^th highest frequency last season as well with the same DC Anthony Weaver. Last season as a member of the Texans, Diggs averaged 1.77 YPRR and 22% TPRR against two-high. Those were negative splits compared to single-high, where he averaged 2.21 YPRR and 28% TPRR. Diggs seems to slowly get implemented into a full time role post ACL surgery, but his lines feel too low.

Suggested Pick:

Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

50+ Receiving Yards (+155)

60+ Receiving Yards  (+235)

 

WR Kayshon Boutte

Boutte led the Patriots in route rate week 1 (76.2%) as Diggs is eased in post ACL surgery. He caught 5 of 6 targets for 84 receiving yards. He averaged 2.63 YPRR and was targeted on 19% of his routes. He was tied for 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 20.8%. He primarily lined up out wide, at a 93.8% rate. He’ll face a Miami defense that was 3^rd worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. The Dolphins forced the 3^rd lowest pressure rate in the NFL in week 1. When Maye operated in a clean pocket in week 1, Boutte averaged 4.42 YPRR, was targeted on 37% of his routes and led the team in 1^st-read rate at 27.3%. The Dolphins played the 2^nd highest rate of two-high safeties in week 1 and had the 6^th highest frequency last season as well with the same DC Anthony Weaver. Boutte averaged 1.54 YPRR and 17% TPRR against two-high last season compared to 1.27 YPRR and 15% TPRR against single-high. We’ll see if Boutte is a 1 hit wonder or week 1 was a true breakout, I’m a bit hesitant but lean over with this low of a line.

Suggested Pick:

Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

 

TE Hunter Henry

In week 1, Henry caught 2 of 6 targets for 46 receiving yards. He averaged 1.70 YPRR and was targeted on 22% of his routes. His 20.8% 1^st-read rate was tied for 2^nd on the team. He primarily ran his routes from inline, at a 63% rate. He’ll face a Miami defense that was 3^rd worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. The Dolphins forced the 3^rd lowest pressure rate in the NFL in week 1. When Maye operated in a clean pocket in week 1, Henry averaged 1.59 YPRR, was targeted on 18% of his routes and saw a 1^st-read rate of 9.1%. Last season in a larger sample size, these rates were 2.19 YPRR, 26% TPRR and 18.2% 1^st-read rate. The Dolphins played the 2^nd highest rate of two-high safeties in week 1 and had the 6^th highest frequency last season as well with the same DC Anthony Weaver. Henry averaged 1.78 YPRR and 19% TPRR against two-high last season compared to 1.39 YPRR and 20% TPRR against single-high.

Suggested Pick:

Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua was a disaster in week 1, throwing for 114 passing yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions. He was dead last in EPA/DB despite being pressured at the 2^nd lowest rate behind only Trevor Lawrence in the first week of the season. He had just a 60.9% completion rate after leading the league with a 72.9% completion rate last season. He’ll try to get back on track in week 2 against a division rival Patriots that ranked 8^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. Geno threw for 362 passing yards, had a 70.6% completion rate and threw 1 TD vs the Patriots in week 1. New England played the 4^th highest rate of man coverage in week 1. Last season, Tua averaged 6.00 YPA, a 56.3% completion rate and an 86.1 QB rating against man, compared to 7.93 YPA, a 78.9% completion rate and a 102.9 QB rating against zone. Miami lost 2 offensive linemen in week 1, a unit that was already questionable at best. The Patriots may also get their top cornerback back this week after missing week 1 (Christian Gonzalez). The one positive here is that Tua is back at home where he has positive splits and faces New England, who he threw 317 passing yards and 4 TDs against in his last H2H matchup last season. Despite the previous success vs New England, I just don’t have any faith in this Miami team.

Suggested Pick:

Under 34.5 Yard Longest Pass (-115)

Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130)

Over 0.5 Interceptions (-130)

 

RB De’Von Achane

Achane carried the ball 7 times for 55 rushing yards in week 1 against the Colts. He averaged 7.86 YPC. 2 of his carries account for 41 yards, showcasing his explosive run ability. He also caught 3 of 4 targets for 20 yards and a receiving TD. Achane played on 71.7% of the Dolphins offensive snaps. Achane will face a division rival Patriots defense that ranked 3^rd best in EPA/Rush allowed in week 1. To make matters worse, the Dolphins will be missing 2 of their starting offensive linemen, James Daniels and Austin Jackson. Last season, Achane posted a 43.5% success rate when Jackson on the field compared to just a 36.9% success rate without him. I’m bearish on Achane in the run game, but a little more optimistic about him in the receiving role. Tua and the Dolphins may be forced to get the ball out of his hands quick due to the state of the offensive line, which means short quick passes, bullish for Achane to be involved. I’m not sure how to feel about the matchup as Jeanty caught 2 of 2 targets for just 2 yards against the Patriots in week 1 and the Patriots allowed the 2^nd fewest receiving yards to RBs last season with a different coaching staff. I’d play the upside rather than his normal line as he feels like a boom or bust.

Suggested Pick:

40+ Receiving Yards (+170)

50+ Receiving Yards (+310)

60+ Receiving Yards (+525)

 

RB Ollie Gordon II

Ollie Gordon saw a 26.1% snap share and saw just 2 carries for 4 rushing yards. Ollie did not see much usage in his first game as a rookie, but it’ll be interesting to see if he sees increased opportunities as the season goes on. Gordon will face a division rival Patriots defense that ranked 3^rd best in EPA/Rush allowed in week 1. Gordon did receive the 1 Miami carry inside the 10-yard line. However, the state of the offensive line is not pretty. The Dolphins will be missing 2 of their starting offensive linemen, James Daniels and Austin Jackson. The Dolphins had a ton of trouble running the ball when Jackson was absent last season.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

WR Tyreek Hill

Prior to the last drive of the game where the starters were pulled, Tyreek ran a route on 77.8% of dropbacks. He caught 4 of 6 targets for 40 receiving yards. He averaged 1.90 YPRR, was targeted on 29% of his routes and 1^st-read rate of 26.7% was 2^nd on the team behind Waddle. He split time lining up out wide and in the slot, at 42.9% and 57.1% rates respectively. In week 2, he’ll face division rival Patriots that ranked 8^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. New England played the 4^th highest rate of man coverage in week 1. In 2024, Tyreek averaged 1.94 YPRR, was targeted on 34% of his routes and saw a 1^st-read rate of 30.1% against man. That compares to 2.12 YPRR, a 23% TPRR and a 22.6% 1^st-read rate against zone. In the 2 matchups against the Patriots last season, albeit with a different DC, Hill had 69 and 48 receiving yards. The Patriots allowed the most slot yards in week 1 (146) and the 10^th most last season. That compares to the 2^nd most to wide alignment week 1 (169) and the 10^th fewest last season. Christian Gonzalez’s availability will be key to bolster up the Patriots secondary. He primarily lines up out wide, so would likely impact Waddle more than Hill. The other aspect to consider here is the Dolphins are playing back at home, where Hill averaged 62.8 receiving yards per game last season compared to 50.8 in away games. If you only consider games that Tua played, his average receiving yards increased to 68.4. If the Dolphins can find any rhythm, Tyreek’s lines are too low. However, it’s hard to trust after that uninspiring week 1 performance. I’ll take his under longest reception as I think Tua will be forced to make quick passes as the Dolphins will be missing 2 of their starting offensive linemen, James Daniels and Austin Jackson.

 

Suggested Pick:

Under 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110)

 

WR Jaylen Waddle

Prior to the last drive of the game where the starters were pulled due to blowout, Waddle ran a route on 77.8% of dropbacks and caught 4 of 5 targets for 30 receiving yards. He averaged 1.43 YPRR, was targeted on 24% of his routes and led the Dolphins in 1^st-read rate at 33.3%. Waddle primarily lined up out wide, at a 76.2% rate. New England played the 4^th highest rate of man coverage in week 1. In 2024, Waddle averaged 1.93 YPRR, was targeted on 18% of his routes and saw a 1^st-read rate of 16.5% against man. That compares to 1.82 YPRR, 20% TPRR and an 18.3% 1^st-read rate against zone. In the 2 matchups against the Patriots last season, albeit with a different DC, Waddle had 46 and 144 receiving yards. The Patriots allowed the most slot yards in week 1 (146) and the 10^th most last season. That compares to the 2^nd most to wide alignment week 1 (169) and the 10^th fewest last season. Christian Gonzalez’s availability will be key to bolster up the Patriots secondary. He primarily lines up out wide, so would likely impact Waddle more than Hill. The other aspect to consider here is the Dolphins are playing back at home, where Waddle averaged 73 receiving yards per game compared to 29.1 in away games. That home average increases even further in games with Tua, to 79.2 receiving yards. If the Dolphins can find any rhythm, Waddle’s lines are too low. However, it’s hard to trust after that uninspiring week 1 performance. I prefer Waddle to Tyreek due to his better previous success against the Patriots, better splits at home with Tua, and Tyreek didn’t seem to want to be with the team during the offseason.

Suggested Pick:

Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

60+ Receiving Yards (+195)

70+ Receiving Yards (+300)

80+ Receiving Yards (+425)

90+ Receiving Yards (+650)

 

TE Tanner Conner

Tanner Conner ended being the primary pass catching TE in week 1, running a route on 51.9% of dropbacks. He caught 1 of 2 targets for 14 receiving yards. He averaged 1.00 YPRR and was targeted on 14% of his routes. He lined up all over, 28.6% out wide, 28.6% from the slot and 42.9% inline. Conner will likely play the same role in week 2 as long as Waller is inactive. The Patriots allowed Brock Bowers to catch 5 of 8 targets for 103 receiving yards in week 1. However, Bowers is the best TE talent in the league, I can’t put too much stock into that. The low expected target volume makes this a volatile prop, wherever this may open.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

It’s typically smart not to overreact to a week 1 blowout, but in my opinion the Dolphins have bigger issues with team chemistry. I don’t think they are bought into the coaching staff’s system and when that’s the case, on-field play can be a disaster. It started with all the drama with Tyreek Hill during the offseason. The Dolphins inability to create explosive plays from last season continued into week 1, and with 2 injuries to their offensive line, I’d expect this issue to further exasperate in week 2. The Patriots were a hyped-up team coming into the season, with a 9.5 game win total, maybe a bit overrated. But I think this team will improve as the season goes on and if Christian Gonzalez is able to return, that should improve the Patriots biggest weakness from week 1. I’m rolling with the Patriots despite this typically being a spot to back a team going back home after a blowout.

 

Best Bet (Patriots +1.5)
Lean (Over 43.5)
Patriots 24 Dolphins 20

Anytime Touchdown:

Treveyon Henderson (Patriots) +160

Despite only playing 33.8% of the snaps in week 1, Treveyon saw more touches than Rhamondre Stevenson. After the game, coach Vrabel emphasized that the Patriots needed to run the ball more. Henderson caught 6 receptions in a limited role, that’s elite for a rookie in their first game. The Dolphins also allowed the 5^th highest explosive run rate last season, which Treveyon led the nation in last season with Ohio State. He’s a big play waiting to happen and I think his breakout comes in week 2 against a weak Dolphins run defense.

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) -110

This may not be a great matchup from a rushing perspective as the Patriots ranked 3^rd in EPA/Rush allowed in week 1. But that’s a 1 game sample size so we’ll see. The factor I like above Achane is his ability in the receiving game, especially in a game where the Dolphins are without 2 of their offensive linemen and Tua will be forced to get the ball out quickly. Achane scored twice in his last matchup against the Patriots, albeit with different DC last season.

 

First Touchdown Pick:

Treveyon Henderson (Patriots) +850

Same analysis as above, it’s also a narrative play as he just got engaged to his girlfriend this week. He also has the ability to house a kickoff, as he showcased in the preseason. Love him to break an explosive play early against a Dolphins team that looks to be in shambles.

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) +500

Same analysis as above, I want to target a player that is explosive and has multiple ways of scoring. His explosive play ability is what excites me.

Parlay #1 +800

Jaylen Waddle 60+ Receiving Yards

Treveyon Henderson 75+ Rush+Rec Yards

 

Parlay #2 +4000

Treveyon Henderson 100+ Rush+Rec Yards

Treveyon Henderson 2+ Touchdowns

QB Mac Jones

With Brock Purdy sidelined multiple weeks by turf toe, Mac Jones is set to start for the 49ers until he returns. Jones comes off a rough 2024 stretch as Jacksonville’s starter, averaging just 205 yards per game over the second half of the season. Among 47 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 35th in yards per attempt, 36th in passer rating, 37th in completion percentage over expected, and 31st in catchable target rate. The lone bright spot was his placement, finishing 8th in highly accurate throw rate, which suggests his ball placement can still flash when he is in rhythm. He steps into one of the NFL’s most quarterback friendly ecosystems, but the drop off from Purdy’s processing and efficiency is significant. The Saints defense allowed the 10th highest success rate per dropback and the 9th highest passer rating in Week 1, but it is unclear how much Jones can capitalize given his inconsistency.

Suggested Play:

Pass

 

RB Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey gave the 49ers a scare with a late calf injury last week, but he played 75 percent of the snaps and handled 31 touches in the opener. He finished with 69 rushing yards on 22 carries and added 73 receiving yards on 9 catches from 10 targets, showing his usual dual threat impact. With Brock Purdy sidelined, San Francisco will likely lean even more heavily on McCaffrey to stabilize the offense. That plays into a favorable matchup against New Orleans, who just allowed 5.4 yards per carry and the 6th most adjusted yards before contact per attempt at 2.78 to Arizona’s backs. They also surrendered a receiving touchdown to James Conner, exposing coverage issues against running backs out of the backfield. With George Kittle sidelined and Jauan Jennings still working back into form, McCaffrey should once again command a massive workload both as a runner and a receiver.

Suggested Play:
'O' 119.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (–115)

 

WR Ricky Pearsall

Ricky Pearsall stepped into a featured role in Week 1 with George Kittle sidelined and Jauan Jennings leaving early, logging an 80 percent route share and converting 7 targets into 108 yards. He also drew 2 red zone targets, highlighting his immediate involvement as a scoring option in San Francisco’s passing game. With Kittle out for at least the next few weeks and the Saints showing cracks against perimeter receivers by allowing 5 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown to Marvin Harrison Jr, Pearsall is well positioned to remain a focal point. His ability to win outside against corners like Kool Aid McKinstry and Isaac Yiadom makes him a strong candidate to score.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+210)

 

TE Jake Tonges

Jake Tonges stepped in for expanded duty in Week 1 after George Kittle exited, finishing with 3 catches for 15 yards and a touchdown including the game winner from Brock Purdy. He logged a 39 percent route share, splitting time with Luke Farrell who ran routes on 31 percent of dropbacks. With Kittle out multiple weeks and Jauan Jennings also banged up, Tonges could see more opportunities, but his role remains unclear in an offense that may feature Ricky Pearsall and Christian McCaffrey more heavily in the passing game. The Saints allowed only 48 yards to tight ends in Week 1 and their coverage has historically funneled throws away from the position. Given the uncertainty around Tonges’ snap share and target volume, his touchdown last week looks more like a one off than a reliable signal.

Suggested Play:
Pass

QB Spencer Rattler

Let's just state the obvious here, Spencer Rattler vs Mac Jones may be one of the worst QB matchups in NFL history. Rattler threw for 214 yards while completing 27 of his 46 pass attempts for a rather pedestrian 58.7% completion rate. In his 8 career starts at QB for New Orleans, Rattler has thrown only 4 touchdowns and now he will face a 49ers defense who held Sam Darnold to just 150 yards passing on 16 of 23 attempts. San Francisco dominated time of possession last week against Seattle. They had the ball for 37:58 to the Seahawks 22:02. There's just no getting around the fact that the Saints offense is going to be extremely limited this season, and especially in week 2. The 49ers will likely use aggressive, single-high safety looks, including Cover 3 and Cover 1 to challenge Rattler with their potent pass rush and strong cornerbacks, thereby forcing him to make quicker decisions. The one area Rattler could find some success in is with regard to his mobility. The SF defense has struggled with mobile QB's in the past and while that's a positive, it could further eat away into his passing yards total. Spencer Rattler simply cannot be trusted here. 

Suggested Pick:

Spencer Rattler u206.5 Pass Yards (-113) 

 

RB Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara is the one bright spot in an otherwise anemic offense. He was on the field for 81% of the Saints snaps, and while he tallied just 45 yards rushing he did manage to find the end zone in week 1. It’s going to be difficult to trust any New Orleans player this Sunday, however there is a strong case to make for Kamara’s reception total this week. He was targeted just twice against Arizona catching both passes that went his way, but this was an anomaly for the Saints RB when you consider his target numbers last season. When paired with Spencer Rattler, Kamara has logged 8, 7, 11, 6, 5 and 5 targets. He caught 30 of 37 passes that were thrown to him for an 81.1% success rate. If there is one area of weakness in the 49ers defense it’s that they’ve susceptible to receptions out of the backfield. They allowed Kenneth Walker to catch 4 balls last week and in ’24 they allowed the 9^st most receptions to opposing RB’s and given the amount of pressure Rattler is going to see, I look for him to rely on Kamara as his safety blanket.

Suggested Pick:

Alvin Kamara o3.5 Receptions (-110) 

 

WR Chris Olave

After a promising start to the career of Chris Olave, he’s not lived up to the expectations New Orleans. The problem in the overall assessment of where he is now is difficult, and this is because he has an incompetent QB under center. With that said, Olave had a monstrous 13 targets last week vs Arizona, but hauled in just 7 of those balls for 54 yards. A decent case could be made for Olave’s reception total, but he is habitually inside and outside of the medical tent making this a risky play. Olave is going to face a stingy San Francisco defense who allowed the fewest passing yards to WR’s in all of ’24. Getting down the field is going to be extremely difficult this Sunday.

Suggested Pick:

Chris Olave Longest Reception u19.5 Yards (-110) 

 

WR Rashid Shaheed

Rashid Shaheed was yet another victim of Spencer Rattler in week 1. Despite catching 6 passes on 9 targets the Saints wide receiver totaled just 33 yards. This is a constant theme and the proof is in the fact that not a single New Orleans receiver had a target depth over 10 yards down the field. The positive thing for Shaheed is that he was on the field on 98% of Rattler's dropbacks. He has the ability to beat anyone down the field but receiving yard totals simply cannot be trusted with Rattler at quarterback. Shaheed's biggest asset is his speed, but one thing a premier defensive end like Nick Bosa can do is wreak havoc on opposing QB's. While the execution was lacking against Arizona, new OC Kellen Moore has seemed to have brought a much higher volume of passing to the Saints offense. He may not accumulate a lot of yards on Sunday but with Mac Jones on the opposite side of the field, it should create more drives for NO, and it's for that reason why Shaheed's reception total has a good deal of value.

Suggested Pick:

Rashid Shaheed o3.5 Receptions (-114) 

 

TE Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson led all tight ends in week 1 by hauling in 8 ball for 76 yards, while being targeted of 11 times throughout the game. Johnson also led the NFL in week 1 among all TE's with a whopping 47 routes but his matchup this Sunday at San Francisco is quite complicated to figure out. This is solely because of Fred Warner who does not give in to tight ends. He is the anchor in defending that position, and he picked up right where he left off last year by limiting Seattle TE's to just 2 catches for a total of 7 yards in the first game of the season. Furthermore, the 49ers allowed an average of only 40.7 YPG to opposing tight ends in '24. Juwan Johnson is going to have a big year but week 2 could be his toughest game of the season and his performance last Sunday has spiked a yardage total that will be difficult to attain.

Suggested Pick:

Juwan Johnson u39.5 Receiving Yards (-113) 

This is a tough one... We don't know if Mac Jones will show up and im not a big fan of Spencer Rattler. Saints rushing defense continues to struggle specifically in the 2H and that is the KEY for me in this matchup. I think this is a low scoring game in the 1H and I think the 49ers find some success late in the game to get a nice win on the road.

Best Bet: 49ers -2.5 -110
Lean: Under 41.5 -115
Score Prediction 49ers 20 Saints 14

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (49ers) Ricky Pearsall +210

Pearsall stepped into a featured role in Week 1 with George Kittle sidelined and Jauan Jennings leaving early, logging an 80 percent route share and converting 7 targets into 108 yards. He also drew 2 red zone targets, highlighting his immediate involvement as a scoring option in San Francisco’s passing offense. With Kittle out for at least the next few weeks and the Saints showing cracks against perimeter receivers by allowing 5 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown to Marvin Harrison Jr, Pearsall is well positioned to remain a focal point. His ability to win outside against corners like Kool Aid McKinstry and Isaac Yiadom makes him a strong candidate to score.

First Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (49ers) Ricky Pearsall +1200

Ricky Pearsall wasted no time stepping into a featured role in Week 1, running a route on 80 percent of dropbacks and turning 7 targets into 108 yards. He was also looked to twice in the red zone, a sign that the 49ers already trust him as a scoring option with George Kittle sidelined and Jauan Jennings banged up. The Saints struggled last week to contain Arizona’s top receiver, giving up 71 yards and a score, and their perimeter coverage remains exploitable. With San Francisco short on reliable pass catchers and Mac Jones looking for a go to target, Pearsall has the opportunity to open the scoring.

 

Longshot Touchdown Pick:

New Orleans (Saints) D/ST +1900

There's no denying this is a long shot but they are facing Mac Jones who has been arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL over the last 4 seasons. It's almost unfathomable that he has started 49 career games and thrown 44 interceptions. It is not out of the realm of possibility that he throws a pick-6 in this game.

Parlay #1: (Saints) +222 on Fan Duel

Alvin Kamara 4+ Receptions
Rashid Shaheed 4+ Receptions

QB Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson will remain New York’s starter in Week 2, but the pressure is mounting after a rough opener. He completed just 17 of 37 passes for 168 scoreless yards (4.5 YPA) against Washington, finishing last among quarterbacks in catchable throw rate (56.8%) while being pressured on nearly half his dropbacks (46.7%). His legs were the lone bright spot, adding 44 rushing yards on 8 attempts, but the offense once again failed to reach the end zone. The challenge gets no easier against Dallas, who held Jalen Hurts to only 152 passing yards in Week 1 while leaning on zone coverage at the highest rate in the league (93.9%). Wilson struggled badly against zone last week, completing just 8 of 16 passes for 51 yards (3.2 YPA) with a -12% CPOE. If the inefficiency continues, the Giants may have no choice but to accelerate the timeline for first-round pick Jaxson Dart, who looms as the future of the position.

Suggested Play:

'U' 184.5 Pass Yards (-110)

 

RB Tyrone Tracy

Tyrone Tracy Jr. opened as New York’s feature back, playing 72.6% of the snaps with a 58% route share, but his production was limited by an offensive line that generated negative yards before contact per attempt in Week 1. He finished with only 35 total yards on 12 touches, though he still showed resilience with 2.60 yards after contact per attempt. The matchup with Dallas is tricky—they held Saquon Barkley to 60 yards on 18 carries (3.3 YPC) in the opener—but their run defense wasn’t flawless. The Cowboys allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate and posted the fourth-lowest stuff rate in Week 1, leaving them vulnerable to chunk plays on the ground. With uncertainty at quarterback and pressure mounting on the passing game, the Giants may lean more heavily on Tracy to keep drives manageable, giving him more opportunities to break one.

Suggested Play:
'O' 13.5 Yard Long Rush (–110)

 

WR Malik Nabers

Malik Nabers was the focal point of New York’s passing game in Week 1, drawing 12 targets and accounting for nearly 70% of the team’s air yards. He turned that volume into 5 catches for 71 yards, showing his ability to win downfield even in a sputtering offense. Dallas presents a familiar challenge after Nabers went for 12/115 and 8/69 in two meetings last season, but their defensive approach has shifted. The Cowboys played zone coverage on a league-high 93.9% of snaps in Week 1, and Nabers struggled against it, failing to secure a catch on 4 targets. Zone was already a weaker spot for him in 2024, where he averaged 2.24 yards per route run and drew targets on 29% of his routes, but he’ll need improved quarterback play to turn opportunities into production. With New York’s QB situation unsettled heading into Week 2, Nabers remains the Giants’ most dangerous option, but his ceiling depends on how efficiently the offense can function against Dallas’ zone-heavy scheme.

Suggested Play:
'U' 66.5 Receiving Yards (–110)

 

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

Wan’Dale Robinson opened the season as New York’s primary underneath option, catching 6 passes for 55 yards on 8 targets while playing 76% of the snaps as the No. 3 receiver behind Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton. His role fits well against zone-heavy defenses, and Dallas leaned into zone more than anyone in Week 1 (93.9%). Robinson caught all 3 of his targets for 23 yards against zone last week, and his track record in those looks is steady—1.42 yards per route run and a 23% target rate per route across 367 zone routes in 2024. Dallas limited his impact last season (11/71 in one meeting, 2/6 in the other), but his short-area usage ensures he’ll see opportunities again, especially with uncertainty at quarterback potentially pushing the Giants toward quicker, safer throws.

Suggested Play:
'O' 4.5 Receptions (–110)

 

TE Daniel Bellinger

Daniel Bellinger was one of the few bright spots for New York’s offense in Week 1, turning his only target into a 14-yard gain while standing out as a blocker. He posted strong grades in both run blocking (78.7) and pass protection (73.9), helping to stabilize an offensive line that struggled throughout the game. His overall performance earned one of the Giants’ highest offensive grades, outpacing several bigger-name teammates. With Theo Johnson struggling in his second-year debut, Bellinger looks poised for an expanded role as the team’s primary tight end moving forward. That should translate into more snaps, and given his reliability in the red zone, he’s well-positioned to sneak free for a scoring chance against Dallas.

 

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+2100)

QB Dak Prescott

While the stat sheet won't show this, Dak Prescott had a fantastic season debut against an intimidating Philadelphia Eagles defence. Sure, he only completed 61.8% of his passes for 188 passing yards, but he had some impressive throws that his receivers just failed to come down with – aheeeem CeeDee Lamb. But this week poses as an easier matchup for Prescott, facing off against the New York Giants. Last week, the Giants allowed Daniels to go 19/31 for 233 passing yards (12th most). New York ran the 10th most man coverage (35.1%). Dak only saw man coverage on five of his dropbacks last week, but had an impressive 5.80 yards per attempt against the coverage. However, that's a small sample size to base an assessment on. Despite seeing the 28th most dropbacks against man coverage, Dak's 8.1 yards per attempt ranked eighth best in the NFL. Returning home against a man-heavy Giants, Prescott should have a bounce-back game through the air.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott o246.5 Passing Yards (-110)

 

RB Javonte Williams

Had Jalen Carter not gotten ejected before their first offensive snap, maybe we wouldn't be talking as highly about Javonte Williams. He wasn't anything spectacular on the ground, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, but he did find the end zone twice. Again, does that happen with Carter in the lineup? Perhaps not. Anyway, this week, Williams gets the Giants, who really struggled to contain the Commanders on the ground, allowing 133 rushing yards on just 20 carries – the second-highest yards per carry. The Giants ran the second-most man/gap, but Williams doesn't really see an advantage against the scheme. However, returning home, the Cowboys should bounce back after a tough loss to the Eagles last week. This should result in Javonte seeing more volume later in the game. But on the other hand, with Miles Sanders fumbling at a crucial time last week, we expect the Cowboys to activate Jaydon Blue after missing Week 1, which could reduce Javonte's workload, especially if they're leading late. The Cowboys' backfield seems just a little too unpredictable this week.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

WR CeeDee Lamb

I don't think anybody wants to forget about last week more than CeeDee Lamb. He had two drops on the final drive, the biggest coming on fourth down, which cost the Cowboys the game. However, everybody knows what calibre of receiver Lamb is; he's not going to disappoint two weeks in a row. To say disappointed might be a stretch, as he still caught seven of his 13 targets for 110 receiving yards. His 13 targets were good for a 38.2% target share, which was the third highest among WRs in Week 1. But again, we all know how good Lamb is. But will he be good in this matchup? The Giants allowed the seventh most receiving yards (176) to opposing WRs last week. Considering New York ran the 10th most man coverage in Week 1, Lamb had the highest PFF grade of all Cowboys receivers in man coverage last season, and had an impressive 15.8 yards per reception in Week 1 against the coverage. In Week 4 against the Giants in 2024 – when Dak was the QB – Lamb caught seven of his eight targets for 98 receiving yards and a TD. That should be the floor for Lamb in this matchup, especially when he has the redemption on his mind.

Suggested pick:

CeeDee Lamb o78.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

CeeDee Lamb 100+ Receiving Yards (+200)

 

WR George Pickens

It was an underwhelming Cowboys debut for George Pickens. He caught three of his four targets for 30 receiving yards. But it's hard to blame him when going up against a Philadelphia Eagles defence. The Giants should pose a much easier matchup, considering how poorly they did in Week 1. Last year against man coverage, Pickens saw an incredible uptick in his yards per reception. When facing man coverage, Pickens had an 18.6 yards per reception, compared to just 13.9 against man. Pickens lines up on the outside 91% of his routes. In Week 1, the Giants allowed the sixth-highest yards per reception (16.75) to outside WRs. Given that Pickens was brought in to be an elite deep threat on the outside opposite of Lamb, this should be the matchup where the Cowboys get him going.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens o21.5 Longest Reception (-130)

George Pickens 30+ Longest Reception (+180)

 

TE Jake Ferguson

Surprisingly, Jake Ferguson earned the second-highest target share (17.6%) of all the Cowboys in Week 1. I say surprising, considering how good the Eagles were against opposing TEs last season. He caught five of his six targets, but still cashed the under yards with just 26. The Giants played the TE position quite well last week, holding Zach Ertz to just three receptions for 26 receiving yards, but he did find the end zone. The only problem for Ferguson is how he struggles in man coverage. Last season, Ferguson had the third-worst PFF grade against man coverage, only corralling 12 of his 19 targets for 77 receiving yards against man coverage. So, it could be another slow week for Ferguson yardage-wise, but we like the value of him catching four balls this week.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson o3.5 Receptions (-170)

Giants looked like the typical Giants. I mean they are a terrible team meanwhile the Cowboys almsot knocked off the defending SB champs. This Cowboys offense looked very good and I woudnt be shocked for a 30+ point game for this team as Dak loves to show up this time on year. 

Best Bet: Cowboys 'O' 23.5 Pts -142 
Lean: Cowboys -6.5 +1-5
Score Prediction Giants 14 Cowboys 30

Anytime Touchdown: 

Longshot: (Giants) Daniel Bellinger Anytime TD (+1150)

Daniel Bellinger was one of the few bright spots for New York’s offense in Week 1, turning his only target into a 14-yard gain while standing out as a blocker. He posted strong grades in both run blocking (78.7) and pass protection (73.9), helping to stabilize an offensive line that struggled throughout the game. His overall performance earned one of the Giants’ highest offensive grades, outpacing several bigger-name teammates. With Theo Johnson struggling in his second-year debut, Bellinger looks poised for an expanded role as the team’s primary tight end moving forward. That should translate into more snaps, and given his reliability in the red zone, he’s well-positioned to sneak free for a scoring chance against Dallas.

 

Best Pick: (Cowboys): CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD (+100)

Not fantastic odds, but we're really choosing to play into the narrative at a CeeDee Lamb bounce back. Lamb has three TDs in his last two games with Dak Prescott as his QB.

 

1st Touchdown: 

Best Pick: (Giants) Tyrone Tracy Jr. First TD (+1200)

 

First TD Pick: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (+1800)

Tyrone Tracy Jr. opened as New York’s clear lead back in Week 1, playing over 70% of the snaps and handling the majority of early-down work. While the Giants’ offensive line struggled to create space, Tracy still showed toughness after contact and was consistently on the field in both rushing and passing situations. With uncertainty at quarterback and New York likely leaning more on the ground game to settle in, Tracy has a real path to seeing touches near the goal line. Dallas’ run defense showed cracks last week, giving up the fourth-highest explosive run rate and the fifth-most rushing yards. If the Giants can get into scoring position early, Tracy’s volume and red-zone usage give him intriguing value as an opening touchdown scorer.

 

Best Pick: (Cowboys) Kavontae Turpin First TD (+2000)

It's a long shot for a reason! Last week, we took Lamb to get a rushing yard, but it was Turpin who got the rushing attempts for a WR. This displays his trick play ability, particularly with his burning speed, which could be utilized early to get the Cowboys' offence back on track.

Parlay 1: (Cowboys) +225 odds on bet365

Cowboys ML

CeeDee Lamb TD

CeeDee Lamb 70+ Receiving Yards

QB Caleb Williams

All the signs pointed to Caleb Williams breaking out this year after watching him on the first drive. He went a perfect 6/6 for 51 passing yards, capping it off with a nine-yard rushing TD. The rest of the game kind of got away from him. However, this week, he will have to perform in his brand-new head coach's revenge game against the Lions. Detroit picked up exactly where they left off last season, running the most man coverage in the league. They ran 52.1% of their Week 1 snaps in man coverage. Jordan Love went 16/22 for 188 passing yards despite the low pass volume. Williams saw just man coverage on five of his dropbacks, but went a perfect 4/4 for 28 passing yards. However, last season, Williams struggled against the coverage, completing just 48.3% of his passes, while seeing the fourth most man coverage. And that showed in his numbers against the Lions last season, when he finished with a 51.3% and 65% in two games. With that in mind, if Williams is going to struggle with his completion percentage as he did last season, then he will need to throw even more. Williams had 39 and 40 pass attempts against them last season. And as 6-point underdogs, Williams may need to be throwing a lot to keep up in this game.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams o32.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

 

RB D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift was the full-on bell-cow for the Bears in Week 1. He handled all 17 of the Bears' RB rushing attempts and caught three of the four receptions. That's a 96% opportunity share, while also seeing 81% of the snaps. Last week, the Lions gave up just 71 rushing yards on 21 attempts, averaging 3.38 yards per carry – ranking eighth-best in the league. And while Swift did dominate touches, he only went for 51 rushing yards, which turned to a 3.1 yards per carry – 11th-lowest among starting RBs in Week 1. Many are expecting the Lions to bounce back after an embarrassing loss in Week 1. If that's the case, the Bears will need to throw to stay in this game, which will likely limit Swift's ability to find his groove in the run game.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift u50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR DJ Moore

Despite being the No. 1 WR in the offence, DJ Moore only earned a 14.6% target share, which ranked behind both Rome Odunze and Olamide Zaccheaus, who both earned over 20%. Moore caught three of his five targets but did damage yardage-wise, leading the team with 70 receiving yards. Moore did not receive a target against man coverage last week, so we don't have a sample size to see him against the coverage in 2025. However, with Moore lining up wide 61% of the time, he should draw the Terrion Arnold matchup. The 2024 first-round CB struggled in Week 1, allowing four receptions on six targets for 86 receiving yards. If he struggles again and matchups up against Moore, the Bears WR should be in line to have a similar low-volume, high-receiving game, as he did in Week 1.

Suggested pick:

DJ Moore 60+ Receiving Yards (-130)

 

WR Rome Odunze

While Odunze led the team in terms of target share (22.9%), he did not translate that into a high production day as we had anticipated. He caught six of his eight targets, but they only went for 37 yards and one TD. However, unlike last season, Odunze was actually the Bears' best man coverage receiver in Week 1, catching all three of his targets for 21 yards against the coverage. Although, we won't be too quick to read into that, considering his numbers were drastically better against zone coverage last season. As Ben Johnson said, Odunze lined up as the X receiver on the outside 68.2% of the time, and will likely draw the DJ Reed matchup. Last week, Reed allowed four receptions on five targets, but they only went for 47 receiving yards. With that in mind, as well as Williams giving Odunze the highest target share, he could be in for another high-volume game.

Suggested pick:

Rome Odunze o3.5 Receptions (-135)

 

TE Cole Kmet

Last week, we put our trust in rookie Colston Loveland; however, after seeing just 55.6% of the snaps and a 5.7% target share, we flipped our attention to Cole Kmet. Kmet had an 87.3% snap share and an 11.4% target share. The veteran TE only caught one of his four targets, but his one catch went for 31 receiving yards. Last week, the Lions allowed four receptions for 22 receiving yards against opposing TEs. Unfortunately for Kmet, he ran 60% of his routes in line, which the Lions allowed just seven receiving yards to last week. Even dating back to last season, the Lions allowed the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game (23.2) to in-line receivers. This, along with Loveland potentially taking more work from him, we're going to fade Kmet in this matchup.

Suggested pick:

Cole Kmet u17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff struggled in his first game without Ben Johnson, completing 31 of 39 passes for 225 yards with a touchdown and an interception, averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt. His throws came almost exclusively underneath, posting an NFL-low 4.2-yard average depth of target in the opener. Detroit’s offensive line also looked shaky, grading in the bottom half of the league in pass protection, which has historically been a problem spot for Goff when pressured. Week 2 brings a more favorable matchup against Chicago, whose defense was picked apart by J.J. McCarthy once he settled in, giving up the fourth-highest completion percentage over expected and ranking 12th-worst in both passer rating and yards per attempt allowed. The Bears also generated the fourth-lowest pressure rate in Week 1, which should give Goff more time to operate. He threw for 221 yards and 2 scores and 336 yards and 3 scores in his two meetings with Chicago last season, and this defense doesn’t look improved early on.

Suggested Play:
'O' 249.5 Passing Yards (–110)

 

RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery opened the year as Detroit’s grinder between the tackles, finishing with 11 carries for 25 yards and adding 4 catches for 18 yards despite being out-snapped by Jahmyr Gibbs. Even in a secondary role, Montgomery still handled 55% of the Lions’ rushing attempts, underscoring his early-down and short-yardage role. That usage should continue in Week 2 against a Chicago defense that was vulnerable on the ground in the opener, allowing the eighth-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt, the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-highest missed tackle rate. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason combined for 23 carries in this matchup last week, showing how teams can feed their backs against this front. While Gibbs’ pass-game involvement is secure, Montgomery’s role as the steady volume runner makes him a strong bet to clear his rushing attempts line, even if efficiency remains limited.

Suggested Play:
'O' 11.5 Rushing Attempts (–115)

 

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs opened the season as Detroit’s lead back, playing 65% of the snaps and running a route on 61% of dropbacks compared to David Montgomery’s 39% snap share and 33% route rate. Gibbs was heavily involved as a receiver, catching all 10 of his targets for 31 yards, though his ground work was limited to 9 carries for 19 yards. His usage as the primary passing-down back should remain central in Week 2, especially against a Chicago defense that just gave up the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs (51.0) in Week 1. The Bears also struggled up front, allowing the eighth-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.88) while ranking 12th in yards after contact per attempt and 13th in missed tackle rate. Gibbs punished Chicago last season with 196 rushing yards and a touchdown plus 62 receiving yards across two meetings, and his dual-threat role puts him in position for another productive day if the Lions’ offensive line gives him space.

Suggested Play:
'O' 4.5 Receptions (–120)

 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown was unusually quiet in Detroit’s opener, finishing with just 4 catches for 45 yards on 6 targets — his lowest output since mid-2024. He now faces a Chicago defense that played man coverage on 50% of snaps in Week 1, the second-highest rate in the league under new coordinator Dennis Allen. That’s a look St. Brown has handled well in the past, averaging 2.19 yards per route run and drawing targets on nearly a quarter of his routes against man coverage last season. He also produced in this matchup a year ago, posting 73 yards in one meeting and 70 yards with a touchdown in the other. With Chicago’s secondary still banged up, St. Brown’s ability to uncover quickly against man coverage should put him back in position for steadier production.

Suggested Play:
'O' 68.5 Receiving Yards (–115)

 

TE Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta was the focal point of Detroit’s passing attack in Week 1, leading the team with 9 targets (23%) and producing 6 catches for 79 yards while running a route on 88% of dropbacks. The Bears leaned heavily on man coverage in their opener (50%, second-highest in the NFL), and that sets up well for LaPorta, who averaged 2.55 yards per route run and earned targets on 27% of his routes against man looks last season. He also carved up Chicago in 2024, scoring three times across two meetings, including a two-touchdown game. With Amon-Ra St. Brown drawing top coverage attention and defenses focused on containing Jahmyr Gibbs underneath, LaPorta’s ability to separate against man and find space in the red zone makes him a strong candidate to hit the end zone again.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+210)

Caleb WIlliams opening drive to start the season had Bears fans out of their seats but they quickly sat down as he looked awful the rest of the game and that film was brutal. The Lions are coming off a Week 1 loss and will be motivated to get a win in their Home opener. Last year this team was 7-2 @Home as these wins were by 22,3,3,46,38,13,6. I think the Bears defense can be much better this year with Dennis Allen as he shit that Vikings offense out for a half. I like the under here and the Lions ot get a cover

Best Bet: Under 46.5 -112
Lean: Lions -6.5 -110
Score Prediction Lions 27 Bears 14

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Lions) Sam LaPorta TD (+210)

Sam LaPorta was the focal point of Detroit’s passing attack in Week 1, leading the team with 9 targets (23%) and producing 6 catches for 79 yards while running a route on 88% of dropbacks. The Bears leaned heavily on man coverage in their opener (50%, second-highest in the NFL), and that sets up well for LaPorta, who averaged 2.55 yards per route run and earned targets on 27% of his routes against man looks last season. He also carved up Chicago in 2024, scoring three times across two meetings, including a two-touchdown game. With Amon-Ra St. Brown drawing top coverage attention and defenses focused on containing Jahmyr Gibbs underneath, LaPorta’s ability to separate against man and find space in the red zone makes him a strong candidate to hit the end zone again.

 

Best Pick: (Bears): D'Andre Swift TD (+130)

We mentioned it earlier, but if Swift is going to earn a 96% opportunity share week in and week out, he'll almost surely be the red zone RB and have the best chance at finding the end zone.

 

First Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: (Lions) Jahmyr Gibbs First TD (+850)

Jahmyr Gibbs was Detroit’s most active playmaker in the passing game in Week 1, catching all 10 of his targets while splitting backfield work with David Montgomery. New OC John Morton made it clear he wants Gibbs featured as more than just a change-of-pace runner, and that usage is likely to expand in the home opener. Chicago presents a familiar matchup—Gibbs has already scored three times in four career meetings against the Bears. With defenses forced to respect Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta in the red zone, Gibbs’ dual-threat role gives him multiple paths to the end zone, making him a strong value to strike first

Best Pick: (Bears) Olamide Zaccheaus First TD (+2500)

We saw Zaccheuas be used in Week 1 much more than a lot of people were expecting. He earned the second-highest target share (20%) while playing only 46% of the snaps – indicating that when he's out there, he was a focal point of the offence. With Moore and Odunze likely to be out there with him, Zaccheaus would have a weaker CB defending him, which could help him find the end zone.

Parlay 1: (Bears) +275 odds on bet365

Caleb Williams 30+ Pass Attempts

D'Andre Swift u50.5 Rushing Yards

Rome Odunze 4+ Receptions

QB Sam Darnold
Darnold didn’t look like his MIN self in week 1. He threw for just 150 passing yards on 16 completions (69%) with no touchdowns or interceptions. He also chipped in a pair of rushes for 14 yards. SF isn’t a bad defense despite all of the guys they let walk in the off-season. In week 1 they rated out as the 7th best coverage unit and 14th best pass rush. Although SEA’s offensive line seemingly improved from last season compared to week 1 - 25th ranked pass blocking to 8th. PIT’s defense was diced by NYJ for 32 points in week 1, however most of it was on the ground. They struggled in coverage (ranked 24th), but still did generate a solid pass rush (8th). Fields is a much more mobile QB than Darnold, so Darnold could feel the pressure more in this matchup. PIT ranked 7th in pressure rate (44.0%) last week and Darnold’s completion rate dropped from 72.8% to 45.5% under pressure. He also had a 9 to 5 TD to INT ratio under pressure as compared to 26:7 while not under pressure. This feels like a lower scoring game and if week 1 told us anything, the ground game will likely be more effective.

 

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 1.5 Passing TD’s (-200)

RB Kenneth Walker III
I did not see Walker’s workload split coming at all. I figured with him fully healthy he’d dominate the touches, but that certainly wasn’t the case in week 1. In the rushing game Charbonnett out-touched Walker 12 to 10 and out-gained him 47 to 20 rushing yards. Charb also scored the only rushing touchdown between the two. What do we do with that? We are now looking at almost equal rushing lines for both of these two and it’s hard to know how bad this PIT’s rushing defense really is after just one week. In week 1 they allowed a total of 182 rushing yards. Very uncharacteristic for a defense that ranked 11th in run defense last season. One thing we did learn in week 1 was that Walker was preferred on passing plays. Walker had 10 passing snaps, while Charbonnett didn’t have a single one. They even lined up Walker in the slot for three snaps! Outside of Wilson last week, RB Breece Hall led the team in targets with 4. That’s the angle I’m looking at here.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Receptions (-135)

RB Zach Charbonnet
We’ve mostly covered the time share between Walker and Charbonnett in Walker’s writeup. Charb was definitely the more effective runner in week 1 and we know how productive he’s been without Walker in the lineup. Charb averaged 3.9 yards per carry in week 1 with only a 16.7% stuff rate. He also created 42.6% of his yards after contact. I’m expecting a continued split between these two but we might be looking at a changing of the guard for the primary runner in this offense. If PIT is really going to struggle against the run this season, Charb should be the primary beneficiary in week 2.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 42.5 Rushing Yards

 

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
You know how I said Darnold only threw for 250 yards? What if I told you 12 of those went to JSN? YUP. The Jaxon breakout is upon us! He caught 9 of a team-high 13 targets in week 1, but didn’t get into the endzone. As promised, JSN did work more outside than he did last season. He lined up in the slot only in 32% of snaps compared to 83.6% last season. He delivered on it too, with clear WR1 preference from Darnold. There is no reason that’ll change and there is really no one to challenge him for work in this offense. Last season PIT allowed the 14th lowest aDOT (7.8), but 7th most receiving yards per game. They were in the middle of the pack in almost every other statistical category. PIT did allow the 7th highest target share to outside WR’s last season, which makes for a better matchup for JSN as he plays more on the outside. The volume should continue even in a tougher matchup. I like receptions here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 5.5 Receptions (-133)

 

WR Cooper Kupp
Kupp was an afterthought in week 1 and he confirmed my suspicions of looking slower. He reeled in just 2 catches on 3 targets, which tied him with the running back Walker III. Now he rolls into a tough matchup where PIT only allows a 31.7% target share to the slot. Kupp had an aDOT of 7 and had just 1.5 yard after the catch per reception. Kupp actually played more passing snaps than JSN and still finished with this stat line. It won’t surprise me if we eventually see another young WR pass Kupp on the depth chart, but we’ll keep fading him in the meantime.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions
‘U’ 33.5 Receiving Yards

 

TE A.J. Barner
Barner was quiet in week 1 with a single catch on two targets for zero yards. He played plenty though, with 23 passing snaps and an 82.6% route run rate on those snaps. They put him in the slot 17.4% of the time and inline the remainder. On his 2 targets, he was strictly a dump off guy, with an aDOT of just 1.5. PIT was vulnerable to TE’s last season, allowing the 2nd most receptions (102), 11th most receiving yards (959) and 7 touchdowns. WE saw NYJ get 3 catches out of the TE in the opener for 36 yards. If I could get a receptions line at 1.5 I’d probably bite, but at 2.5 I’ll wait and see if Barner gets more involved this week.

Suggested Picks
PASS

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers looked like he still had fuel left in the tank during his Steelers debut. He threw for 244 passing yards and 4 passing TDs. He ranked 7^th in ANY/A amongst QBs in week 1 (8.76). He was 2^nd behind only Patrick Mahomes in time to throw (2.18 seconds). His average depth of target was also tied for lowest in week 1 at 4.2 yards. He looks like he has fully bought into Arthur Smith’s offensive system. 33.3% of his dropbacks were play action and he had a lot of success, throwing for 101 yards and 3 TDs. Rodgers hasn’t had a 30%+ play action rate season since 2020.  He’ll face a Seahawks defense that was 6^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. Purdy threw for 277 passing yards, had a 74.3% completion rate and threw 2 TDs. The Seahawks did, however, end up forcing 2 interceptions. The Seahawks ran the 3^rd highest frequency of two-high (64.1%) week 1 but ran it at the 11^th highest frequency last season with the same DC, so hesitant to call this a trend in a 1 game sample size. The Steelers and Jets had the lowest O/U in week 1 and despite a 66-point performance, the Steelers are yet again involved in the lowest O/U in week 2 at 40. Vegas is not buying the 1 game sample size. I’d be hesitant with Rodgers and this entire offense week 2.

Suggested Pick:

Under 225.5 Pass Yards (-115)

 

RB Jaylen Warren

Warren carried the ball 11 times for 37 yards in week 1 against the Jets, averaging 3.36 YPC. He also caught 2 receptions for 22 yards and a receiving TD. Warren saw a 48.1% snap share in week 1, in line with his 44.1% snap share last year. Last season, he averaged 34.1 rushing yards per game last season on 4.26 yards per carry. He also had 1 rush TD. He averaged 2.69 yards after contact per attempt, which ranked 9^th amongst qualifying RBs last season. In the passing game, Warren averaged 20.7 receiving yards per game on 1.52 YPRR, which ranks 18^th amongst qualifying RBs. He was targeted on 22% of his routes and ran a route on 39.7% of drop backs. Matchup wise, Warren will face a Seahawks defense that ranked 7^th best in EPA/Rush allowed in week 1. They also allowed McCaffrey to catch 9 of 10 targets for 73 receiving yards. Warren is not McCaffrey but is still a threat in the passing game. His receiving line is set at 9.5, a line he has covered in 20 of his last 23 games. The Jets also played man coverage on 50% of snaps week 1, the Seahawks ran man at just a 15.4% rate week 1 and I doubt they will get anywhere close to 50% against the Steelers. This is important as Warren averaged 1.77 YPRR against zone compared to 1.02 YPRR against zone last season. 17 of his 22 receiving yards in week 1 also came vs zone.

Suggested Pick:

Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

20+ Receiving Yards (+145)

30+ Receiving Yards (+320)

 

RB Kenneth Gainwell

Gainwell somewhat surprisingly saw the highest snap share out of the Steelers RBs in week 1 at 53.7%. He basically split with Jaylen Warren, as rookie Kaleb Johnson only had a 3.7% snap share. Gainwell carried the ball 7 times for 19 yards and fumbled once. He also caught 3 of 4 targets for just 4 receiving yards. Gainwell will face a Seahawks defense that ranked 7^th best in EPA/Rush allowed in week 1. 5 of 7 of Gainwell’s rush attempts came in zone concept, where he averaged 2.8 YPC. 2 of his carries were man/gap concept, where he averaged 2.5 YPC. Seattle allowed the 12^th fewest YPC to zone concept in week 1 (3.27) but the 11^th most all of last season (4.44). Hard to have much of a strong opinion on Gainwell in week 2.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

WR DK Metcalf

DK caught 4 of 7 targets for 83 receiving yards in his first game with the Steelers. He averaged 3.07 YPRR and was targeted on 26% of his routes. He had a 24% 1^st-read rate, which was tied for most on the team with Calvin Austin. He primarily lined up out wide, at an 88.9% rate. DK was known for his ability to stretch the field during his time with the Seahawks, but in his 1^st game with the Steelers, he was used a lot in the screen game and ended up with just a 3.7-yard aDOT. He had a 14.3-yard aDOT last season. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that was 6^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. The Seahawks were 19^th in receiving yards allowed to wide aligned receivers last season (95.8) and allowed 80 against the 49ers in week 1. They also forced the lowest aDOT in 2024 (6.8 yards) but were middle of the pack week 1 (7.6 yards). It’ll be interesting to see if DK’s low aDOT week 1 was just an anomaly or will be a trend for how he's used with the Steelers. There’s also the revenge factor here facing the team he played his entire career with prior to this season.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime TD (+145)

 

WR Calvin Austin

Calvin Austin was the clear WR2 week 1, running a route on 73.5% of dropbacks. He caught 4 of 6 targets for 70 receiving yards and a TD. He averaged 2.80 YPRR and was targeted on 24% of his routes. His 24% 1^st-read rate was tied for the team lead. He split time out wide and in the slot, at a 48% and 44% rate respectively. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that was 6^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed in week 1. The Seahawks were 19^th in receiving yards allowed to wide aligned receivers last season (95.8) and allowed 80 against the 49ers in week 1. They allowed the 10^th fewest receiving yards to the slot (69.4) in 2024 and allowed 65 week 1. They also forced the lowest aDOT in 2024 (6.8 yards) but were middle of the pack week 1 (7.6 yards). Austin led the Steelers in aDOT week 1 at 14.3 yards. He had a 12.4 aDOT last season. This isn’t a matchup I love and with Vegas listing this game as the lowest O/U in week 2, they are expecting Rodgers and the Steelers offense to fall back to earth.

Suggested Pick:

Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

TE Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith

After week 1, it looks like Freiermuth and Jonnu will split time in the receiving game. Jonnu ran 18 routes to Freiermuth’s 14. Pat caught 3 of 3 targets for 28 yards. Jonnu caught 5 of 6 targets for 15 receiving yards and a TD. Jonnu was used primarily in the screen game, as he had a -2.2 yard aDOT. It’ll be tough to trust either of these guys any given week. They’ll face a Seahawks defense that allowed George Kittle to catch 4 receptions for 25 yards and a TD playing just 28% of the snaps, leaving early due to injury. His replacement, Jake Tonges, caught 3 receptions for 15 yards and a TD. The Seahawks were middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed to TE last season. The Seahawks forced the lowest aDOT in 2024 (6.8 yards) but were in the middle of pack week 1 (7.6 yards). If the 2024 trend continues in a larger sample size in 2025, this would be bullish for Jonnu, who is a low aDOT guy that produces most of his yards after the catch.

Suggested Pick:

Jonnu Smith Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Steelers offense looked very good in Week 1 but I dont see a repeat of what they did again. Seattle struggled to score last week scoring only 13 points but that defense was VERY GOOD against the 49ers limiting them to 17 points. Give me the Under 41.5 amd the Seahawks with a Week 2 upset

Best Bet: Under 41.5 -125
Lean: Seahawks +3.5 -140
Score Prediction Seahawks 20 Steelers 17

Anytime TD

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) +170

Elite target share for this man has me buying in all facets of his game. I'm not so sure this PIT run defense is as bad as it looked in week 1, so Darnold may have to throw plenty. There's a chance wee see this price closer to +120 as the season progresses.

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +180

Metcalf did not receive a target in the redzone week 1, but I expect that to change week 2 against his former team. Metcalf’s large frame and jump ball ability position him as a great target for Rodgers in the endzone. Metcalf scored 8 TDs in his last healthy season as the clear WR1.

 

First TD

Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) +1000

Love getting 4 digits for who may be the primary rusher in an offense. I've talked about how I don't that this PIT rush defense will be that bad, but what if it is? SEA could run all day with their 2-headed monster and both could benefit. Walker sits as low as +550.

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +800

Same analysis as above, it’s also worth noting that all 5 of his TDs last season came in the 1^st half. Even dating back to 2023, only 2 of his TDs came in the 2H. He tends to find pay dirt early in the game.

Parlay #1 +1900

Jaylen Warren 20+ Receiving Yards

DK Metcalf Anytime TD

Aaron Rodgers Under 225.5 Passing Yards

Parlay #2 (Seahawks) +494
S. Darnold u1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Kenneth Walker III 3+ Receptions
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 6+ Receptions

QB Bo Nix

Well, Bo Nix made the majority of Survivor Pool bettors sweat last week. The Broncos should have blown the Titans out of the water, but Nix's three turnovers (two INTs and one fumble) kept Tennessee in the game. As a Broncos fan, Nix looked like he was trying too hard to make the spectacular play, rather than taking what the defence gave him. Surely, Payton will have him in the proper mindset heading into this week against the Indianapolis Colts. Now, it's hard to read into the Colts' defence last week. Was it actually as good as it was? Or were the Miami Dolphins just that bad? Regardless, they held Tua to just 146 passing yards. Nix himself only had 175 passing yards on 40 pass attempts. The Titans ran the second-most zone coverage, and Nix should see more of the same this week, as the Colts ran the 10th most zone. Last season, Nix saw the second-most dropbacks against zone coverage, finishing with a 70.8% completion percentage, yet only having the 15th most yards per game (161.8) and the sixth-fewest yards per attempt (6.66). Considering Nix ran into trouble last week trying to force his throws, along with his high completion percentage against coverage last season, Nix should get back on track and take the easy completions in what is expected to be a more competitive game.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix o19.5 Pass Completions (-125)

 

RB JK Dobbins

All the hype was around RJ Harvey, but it was JK Dobbins who carried the bulk of the workload. Dobbins took 73% of the RB carries, but was only able to turn that into 63 rushing yards (3.9 yards per carry). However, the early usage is promising, as the veteran inevitably takes over before the rookie does. Last week, the Colts were in a positive game script, only facing nine rush attempts. However, they allowed the third-highest yards per carry (6.5). So, their rush defence may not be as bulletproof as the raw numbers may indicate. When the Broncos had the lead in the fourth quarter last week, Dobbins saw eight of the 10 rush attempts. If they find themselves in a similar situation, Dobbins will likely handle the bulk of the work to run out the clock.

Suggested Pick:

JK Dobbins o12.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

 

RB RJ Harvey

As we saw in Detroit last season, it seems like Denver has their own version of thunder and lightning, with Dobbins being the more short-yardage, power back, while Harvey is the breakaway speedster, who has pass-catching upside. We saw that happen last week, when Harvey exploded for a 50-yard rush, which set up Dobbins's game-winning TD. In Week 1, the Colts allowed an 8.5 yards per carry in man/gap scheme. Harvey's 50-yard rush was against that scheme, to which he finished with an average of 16.5 yards per carry. With that in mind, Harvey's opportunity should only grow as the weeks go on, and he should excel against a rush defence that allowed such a high yards per carry.

Suggested Pick:

RJ Harvey o11.5 Longest Rush Attempt (-110)

 

WR Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton picked up right where he left off last season, as the undisputed favourite target for Bo Nix in this offence. He saw 93% of the snaps, which was 31% more than the next Bronco. With that, he led the team with a 22.5% target share, catching six of his nine targets for 61 receiving yards and a TD. Last season, Sutton was a much better man coverage WR than zone. However, in Week 1, all six of Sutton's receptions came against zone coverage. I'm not sure how much to look into the Colts' defence from last week, because it's usually easy to stop Miami's one-trick-pony style of passing game when they play two high safeties. Sutton lines up on the outside 76% of the time and will often draw the Charvarius Ward matchup. However, the Colts have ruled out Ward and Jaylon Jones for this matchup, opening up Sutton's opportunity. Dating back to last season, the Colts allowed the seventh-highest catch rate (72.7%) to opposing outside WRs. With that in mind, Sutton should see his regular volume. He has reeled in five receptions in nine of his last 10 games.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton o4.5 Receptions (-135)

 

WR Marvin Mims

What happened to the deep threat Marvin Mims last week? He had one deep target (30 yards), but he was unable to corral it. Other than that, he had three short passes, which dropped his aDoT to just 8.5 yards. I mean, Broncos fans wanted him to start getting more than just the deep ball, but not at the cost of eliminating the big play. Mims managed to catch three of his four targets for just 12 receiving yards. That's not great... In Week 1, Troy Franklin actually out-snapped and out-targeted Mims. This early in the season, it's hard to predict what Mims is going to be this season. We would like to wait and see how this pass offence shapes out before advising whether to bet on or against Mims.

Suggested pick:

Pass

 

TE Evan Engram

Evan Engram's Broncos debut saw him take two trips to the blue medical tent before ultimately exiting the game in the fourth quarter. However, he walks into Week 2 without an injury designation as he was able to get in a full practice on Thursday. Engram caught three of his four targets in Week 1 for 25 receiving yards. This doesn't seem like a big workload. However, when you consider Engram played just 28.6% of the snaps, when he was out there, Nix was targeting him. With Waller still out, the Dolphins had backup TE Tanner Conner fill in – who? The Colts allowed Conner to catch two of his four targets, but for 20 receiving yards, averaging 10 yards per reception. If the Colts can allow him to get that production, a healthy Engram, who was utilized so much when he was out there, should be able to smash his production.

Suggested pick:

Evan Engram o28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Daniel Jones
Who is this guy? Jones looked like a bona fide stud in week 1. He went 22 for 29 (76%) with a touchdown and no interceptions. He also added 7 carries for 26 yards and two 1-yard touchdown plunges. He held a 87.5 QBR and 115.9 passer rating. Jones was not “dinking and dunking” either. Of week 1 quarterbacks, Jones ranked 4th highest in yards per attempt (9.38). Jones did that while under pressure too. His time to pressure was 7th quickest of week 1 starters (2.32). There is no doubt he gets a much tougher matchup this week against Denver. Last season they ranked 11th as a coverage unit and 5th as a pass rush unit. Last week, they sacked Cam Ward 6 times and ranked 10th in pressure rate (41.2%). I’m not expecting another masterclass here from Jones. I actually think he could struggle against this elite defense. Now, likely because of the pressure they create along with good coverage, I could see Jones leaning more on his legs. We know now he’s a goal line threat and he finished week 1 with 7 rushing attempts and remember that kneel downs count!

 

 Suggested Picks
‘O’ 5.5 Carries (+120)

 

RB Jonathan Taylor
JT got the workload we were expecting with 18 touches for 72 yards, but backup D.J. Giddens also contributed (12 for 41 yards). Now, the game got away from MIA early and that might be why Giddens was so involved. However, Daniel Jones is a real threat to Taylor’s touchdown equity. Taylor had a couple tries at the endzone, but Jones successfully snuck from the 1-yard line twice. Taylor averaged a decent 3.94 yards per carry and did have a 5.6% explosive yard rate. The 55.6% stuff rate is somewhat concerning, but he’s the type of guy that can optimize a little room with power. Last season DEN ranked 16th in run defense, allowing the 5th fewest rushing yards per game and touchdowns to opposing RB’s. They did however, allow the 7th highest receptions and 9th most receiving yards to RB’s. They also allowed the 11th highest checkdown rate (8.6%) last season. Taylor can always be a threat to crush his rushing line, so I’ll back his receiving line as a home run hitter once he gets up to speed.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 11.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Michael Pittman Jr.
What a refreshing showing from Pittman in week 1. He finished with 6 catches for 80 receiving yards and a touchdown on 8 targets. This week 1 statline is really promising for his season long value. He draws a really tough matchup in week 2 though against this DEN secondary. Despite good coverage grades, this team was more susceptible via the air than the ground. Last season DEN allowed the 4th lowest aDOT (7.2) and THE LOWEST deep throw percentage. As we saw in week 1, that remained true as Ward struggled to land any deep passes. Pittman isn’t some massive deep ball threat so I like to target his receptions as the WR1 in this offense over yards, especially with the pressure that DEN should be able to bring on Jones.

 

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-106)

WR Josh Downs
Downs saw a very unproductive day in week 1, only gathering 2 catches on 3 targets for 12 yards. He only ran a route on 48.5% of dropbacks with an aDOT of 4.3 and a 1.5 yards after the catch per reception. There clearly wasn’t chemistry between Jones and Downs in week 1. He received as many targets as the running back and Alec Pierce. I’ll look to fade him for now if I’m taking his props, especially in a tough matchup.

 

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

 

TE Tyler Warren
I really came away impressed by Warren, who the Colts tried to get involved early and often. He literally got the first pass of the game and finished with a team-high 9 targets. He reeled in 7 catches for 76 yards in his first professional game and looked spry doing so. We might be looking at a future stud for the position. DEN allowed the 8th most receptions (95) to TE’s in 2024 and 21st receiving yards (799). They only allowed 5 touchdowns but Warren did get two redzone targets in week 1. 4.5 receptions is tempting with a team that allowed the 11th highest checkdown rate last season, but Warren is used more like a traditional WR. I lean over his receptions, but let’s take him for his first down of his career.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown (+270)

I mean we had people saying the Colts are going to the Superbowl after Week 1 that is how good they looked! Now they face a very tough defense in the Broncos who shut down the Titans last week. Idk its a tough game to really predict what is going to happen but as a fan of the game why not back a team who is coming into this game confident @Home. GIVE ME THE COLTS TO STAY HOT. 

Best Bet: Colts ML +105
Lean: Under 43.5 -125
Score Prediction Broncos 20 Colts 23

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: (Broncos): JK Dobbins TD (+155)

It's not a massive sample size, but in Week 1, Dobbins got all three of the red zone rush attempts for the Broncos against the Titans – one of which he took to the end zone. If the Broncos are to find themselves in scoring position, Dobbins should be the back Denver leans on.

Best Pick: (Colts) Tyler Warren +270
The Broncos only allowed 5 touchdowns last season, but Warren did get two redzone targets in week 1. He's been so heavily utilized already, this is a nice price for a big body in the endzone.

First Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: (Broncos) Evan Engram First TD (+1400)

While Engram is considered healthy as he is suiting up for this matchup, the Broncos will likely want to test him early and get him in a groove. If that happens, Engram has a strong chance at finding the end zone first.

Longshot Pick: (Colts) Daniel Jones First TD (+1200)
Danny Dimes snuck two in week 1. He's clearly being featured at the goal line and has the ability to scramble for a TD as well. Nice price here for a guy that has shown us an ability to get into the endzone with his legs.

Parlay 1: (Broncos) +280 odds on bet365

Denver Broncos ML

Bo Nix 20+ Pass Completions

Courtland Sutton 5+ Receptions

Parlay #2: (Colts) +109 odds on FanDuel
Michael Pittman 4+ Receptions
IND Colts +8.5
Daniel Jones 15+ Rushing Yards

QB Bryce Young

If you were to sum up Bryce Young's performance in week 1 it would be "unacceptable." In week 1, the Panthers 3rd year quarterback ironically had the 3rd worst pass yard per attempt average at 4.4 yards and the 3rd worst completion percentage at 51.4%. Young's start was downright appalling as he completed just 18 passes on 35 attempts last Sunday for 158 yards, TD and 2 INT's. In addition, his efficiency on first and second down was atrocious as the Carolina QB went just 12 for 24 (4.2 YPA). For those thinking I'm being to hard on Bryce Young, consider that his week 1 opponent was the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is a defense who allowed the most passing yards (4581) and 5th most touchdowns (29), while recorded the 3rd fewest interceptions (6) of any NFL team '24. This Sunday he will face an Arizona defense who utilizes a unique 3-safety alignment in order to confuse offenses and present different looks. At just 5-10, Young struggles to see over the top of defenses, and Arizona behind Budda Baker's movement and impact is going to make things tough on a QB who was among the league's worst in passer rating under pressure. The Cardinals defense held New Orleans to just 13 points in week 1, and the only reason they didn't force Spencer Rattler to throw an INT is because he completed only one pass for over 20 yards. Bryce Young is willing to take chances far too often, and this has resulted in him throwing 27 picks in just 29 starts. Anyone with a brain cell should be all over Young to throw at least one interception, especially after how he performed last Sunday in Jacksonville

Suggested Pick:

Bryce Young o0.5 Interceptions (-111) 

 

RB Chubba Hubbard

Following last week’s disappointing offensive display, Chubba Hubbard managed to emerge positively, converting 19 touches into 89 yards and TD. While Rico Dowdle cut into some of Hubbard’s production he still maintained a significant workload, getting 76% of the team’s workload out of the backfield. A more detailed analysis of Hubbard reveals substantial value in his matchup this week against Arizona, particularly as a road underdog. Last season, the Panthers RB averaged 64.4 rush yards per game. In Carolina’s 3 victories, Hubbard averaged just over 120 yards on the ground. Most notably, one of these performances came against the Cardinals where Chubba recorded 152 yards on 25 carries, find the end zone twice along the way.

Suggested Pick:

Chubba Hubbard o63.5 Rush Yards (-115) 

 

WR Tetairoa McMillan

In his inaugural NFL game, Tetairoa McMillan successfully caught 5 out of 9 targets for a total of 68 yards. Although this resulted in a rather modest box score, there was still a significant amount of potential left untapped. McMillan was the recipient of a pass interference penalty on one occasion and had two additional plays that were negated due to unnecessary penalties committed by the Panthers. It is important to note that he only lined up in the slot for 14% of his snaps. While it is undeniable that McMillan is working with an inconsistent quarterback in Bryce Young, he faces virtually no competition for targets. He concluded last Sunday with 27.5% of the targets for Carolina and 40.5% of the air yards. McMillan's skill in creating separation and adapting to off-target throws, particularly against zone coverage, will be vital when confronting the Cardinals' defense. Nevertheless, Arizona has concentrated on strengthening their defensive line in an effort to enhance pressure on opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers. Should the Cardinals opt to challenge McMillan with man coverage, especially against cornerbacks Max Melton and rookie Will Johnson, his capacity to succeed at the line of scrimmage and generate separation will be put to the test. Given his share of targets, McMillan's value lies in his total receptions.

Suggested Pick:

Tetairoa McMillan o4.5 Receptions (-155) 

 

WR Hunter Renfroe

For the sake of humiliation, I will let the numbers speak for themselves. Hunter Renfroe and Xavier Legette combined for a microscopic 21 yards on the 13 balls that were thrown their way. The problem here is the two divided slot responsibilities, with Renfrow participating in 76.3% of his snaps in the slot and Legette in 31.6%. Neither player is worth staking your money on but if you’re a glutton for punishment then Hunter Renfroe may be the more preferable choice. Arizona employs a heavily zone-oriented scheme and they ranked 27^th last week in receptions allowed out of the slot but again, you would be wise to stay as far away from either of these two.

Suggested Pick:

Play At Your Own Risk

 

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders

Ja’Tavion Sanders had the most usage among Carolina tight ends. He ran 65% of the overall routes and caught 2 of 3 targets in week 1 for 27 yards. You should be careful here, but I do think there is some possible value with Sanders on Sunday. My reasoning for this is based on Arizona giving up 76 yards on 8 receptions to Juwan Johnson of the Saints. Granted, we’re just one game into the season but the Cardinals did not perform well against the slot last Sunday. In no way am I suggesting Sanders is to the level of Johnson, however on the 26 routes Sanders ran, he did line up in the slot 62% of the time and he is capable of getting 15 yards on Sunday.

Suggested Pick:

Ja’Tavion Sanders 15+ Receiving Yards (-182)

QB Kyler Murray

Arizona could not have asked for an easier pair of games to start the season when the NFL gifted them New Orleans and Carolina right out of the gate. Kyler Murray only threw for 163 yards, but he did toss 2 TD's and ran for 38 yards on the ground. Admittedly, I've never found Murray to be consistently reliable but I think he will have a nice game here based on Arizona's seemingly increased focus on the short passing game. In fact, one-third of Murray's throws came right at or just behind the line of scrimmage. Should they stay with this same approach the Cardinals QB matches up well against what Carolina likes to do, and that's play a bend but don't break defense. Panthers' defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero runs a scheme that primarily keeps plays in front of the defenders, aiming to prevent big plays from happening. However, this approach by the Panthers plays right into the hands of Arizona and could be very exploitable for Kyler Murray. This is because the Panthers perennially sit towards the bottom of the league in pass rush which should set things up nicely for Arizona to use its strong running attack and precise, short-to-intermediate passing.

Suggested Pick:

Kyler Murray 240+ Pass+Rush Yards (-138) 

 

RB James Conner

Some are having reservations about James Conner due to him carrying the ball only 12 times for 39 yards, while adding just 4 catches for 5 yards but he did record a touchdown last Sunday. With Arizona adding Trey Benson into the fold it did slightly cut into Conner's touches. That said, he will be facing a Panthers run defense that ranked dead last among all NFL teams, and that trend seems to be continuing as Carolina allowed 173 yards on the ground to Jacksonville. league’s worst run defense in 2024, and they didn't miss a beat to start the '25 campaign. Last season, Conner carved up the Panthers defense for 166 yards and a TD. It won't help CAR that they will also be without DT Tershawn Wharton who is expected to miss 2-4 weeks after injuring his hamstring. I look for Conner to come back strong with something to prove after an otherwise ordinary performance in week 1.

Suggested Pick:

James Conner 60+ Rush Yards (-147) 

 

TE Trey McBride

Trey McBride began the ’25 campaign by hauling in 6 receptions for 61 yards. Last year when he faced the Panthers, McBride had just 3 catches for 20 yards but I’m expecting a James Conner-like bounce back game from the Arizona TE on Sunday. Carolina struggled vs Jacksonville in week 1, allowing 5 catches for 65 yards and a TD. McBride excels vs Cover-3 defense, an last year he was targeted at 30% rate and he maintained that last Sunday to a tee at a 30.5% rate. This is a spot McBride could have a monster game. The Panthers played Cover-3 on 55% of its defensive plays and only George Kittle has more production per route run than McBride. He is an absolute must hammer this week.

Suggested Pick:

Trey McBride o61.5 Pass Yards (-114) 

Some late breaking news in the injury report could play a slight impact on this game. Last night it was made official that Arizona TE Tip Reimane will be out, and he is a big piece to the Cardinals run blocking game. Also, Carolina got a boost when it was announced that OL Ikem Ekwonu is now expected to play after recovering from an emergency appendectomy but one still has to wonder how many snaps he will be on the field for. The latest injury report will play an impact in today's game, but I still see this as a spot where the Cardinals win by double digits. As I said earlier, the Panthers defensive montra is to limit big plays and and keep the ball in front of its secondary, and this plays right into the hands of Arizona's new offensive gameplan which is having Kyler Murray make quick throws from the line of scrimmage or using small dropbacks in order to get the ball out of his hands quickly. They might take a few deep shots down the field but overall the Cardinals appear to be serious in their committment of using short to mid-range passes, combined with their running game to work the ball downfield with a more methodical approach while still using Kyler Murray's legs as a weapon.

Best Bet: Cardinals -6.5 (-115)

Lean: Under 44.5 (-115)
Score Prediction: Cardinals 27 Panthers 13

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (Cardinals) James Conner -150

I acknowledge that we recently observed Trey Benson receiving more playing time than anticipated – he participated in 33.3% of Arizona’s snaps, in contrast to James Conner’s 65.2% – yet it is evident that Conner remains the primary choice. The experienced running back accounted for 33.3% of the Cardinals’ overall offensive touches, three out of nine red zone opportunities, and two out of three goal line chances.

First Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Cardinals) James Conner +400

James Conner is ready for a bounce back game. He dominated Carolina last year and this is great value for him to score the first TD of the game on Sunday.

Parlay #1: (Panthers) +228 on Draft Kings

Bryce Young 1+ Interception
Chubba Hubbard 50+ Rush Yards
Tetairoa McMillan 40+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #2: (Cardinals) +198 on Draft Kings

Kyler Murray 220+ Pass+Rush Yards
James Conner 50+ Rush Yards
Trey McBride 60+ Receiving Yards

QB Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts didn't have a fantastic Week 1 through the air, but he got the job done on the ground. Hurts was decisive with his throws, completing 82.8% of his passes, but only for 152 passing yards. However, his 62 rushing yards and two TDs on 14 rush attempts helped the Eagles secure the victory. This week, we get a Super Bowl rematch against the Kansas City Chiefs. In that game, Hurts pretty much did whatever he wanted. He completed 77.3% of his passes for 221 passing yards and two TDs, while adding 72 yards on the ground and a rushing TD. In Week 1, the Chiefs struggled to stop the Los Angeles Chargers' passing offence, allowing the third most passing yards (318) and the fifth highest yards per attempt (9.35). With the Chiefs seeking revenge after the Super Bowl loss, as well as redeem themselves from last week, we can expect a higher-flying Chiefs offence – even with their injuries in the WR room. Kansas City ran the 11th most man coverage last week, which sets up nicely for Hurts, as in 2024, he had the third-highest yards per attempt (9.36) of all starting NFL QBs.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts o197.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Jalen Hurts 225+ Passing Yards (+190)

 

RB Saquon Barkley

The NFL's latest 2K rusher did not amaze in Week 1. In a game in which the Eagles were leading for the entire second half, Barkley saw eight of the 11 RB touches, but only turned that into three rushes of positive yards and a total of 11 rushing yards. This would have been the second-worst day on the ground for Saquon last season. While Will Shipley looked good in his limited usage, he's now officially ruled out for this game. However, the room is still crowded for Barkley as the Eagles traded for Tank Bigsby. But to be honest, with just one week in his new offence, Bigsby shouldn't take much away from Saquon. Last week, Barkley saw 66.7% of his carries against zone scheme, which he performed alright against, finishing with 3.92 yards per carry. Against man/gap scheme is a different story, finishing with a -0.60 yards per carry on five attempts. The Chiefs ran about an even amount of both coverages in Week 1, only allowing 53 rushing yards (eighth-fewest) by a run-heavy Chargers team. The Chiefs' defensive strength seems to be in the run game, which could limit Saquon to another disappointing week. In the Super Bowl, Saquon had just 57 rushing yards on 25 rush attempts – expect more of the same this week.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley u87.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR AJ Brown

One target. One reception. Eight receiving yards. That's all AJ Brown could muster up in Week 1, in a game that was within one score for the entire match. That's shocking for the calibre of WR Brown is. However, that's not going to deter us from backing Brown in this matchup, as in the last regular season, when Brown had sub-50 receiving yards, he always bounced back with over 100 receiving yards in the following game. In the Super Bowl against the Chiefs last season, Brown had just three receptions for 43 receiving yards and a TD. But the biggest edge we have with Brown is that the Chiefs ran the 11th most man coverage last week. If they continue to do that, Brown should be in for a field day, as last season, Brown was rated as PFF's highest-grade WR against man coverage. He caught 31 of 43 targets, going for 478 receiving yards and five TDs. With that in mind, as well as his disappointing Week 1, Brown will be given every opportunity to bounce back in a matchup in which he should succeed.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown o67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Devonta Smith

While we like Brown this week, we specifically love Devonta Smith this week. The Eagles will be without TE Dallas Goedert this week, and there is nobody on the roster who benefits more when Goedert is out than Smith. In seven games without Goedert in 2024, Smith had 50+ receiving yards in five games, averaging 69.6 (nice) receiving yards per game – four of those five games saw Smith go over 80 receiving yards. Like Brown, Smith has something to prove this week as well, as he had just three receptions for 16 receiving yards in Week 1. He ran 69.7% (nice) of his routes in the slot and should draw the Chamarri Conner matchup. Conner struggled to contain Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen last week, allowing seven receptions on seven targets for 100 receiving yards. That's not much different from last season, as the Chiefs allowed the second-most receiving yards to slot WRs (100.2 per game) in 2024. All of this, along with Smith's phenomenal track record against the Chiefs (65+ receiving yards in all four meetings, averaging 97.5 receiving yards per game), should lead to Smith having a big Week 2.

Suggested pick:

Devonta Smith o56.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Devonta Smith 80+ Receiving Yards (+180)

 

TE Grant Calcaterra

As we discussed, Dallas Goedert has officially been ruled out for this matchup. This provides a significant boost to the Eagles' WRs, as well as backup TE Grant Calcaterra. In seven games without Goedert in 2024, Calcaterra averaged 2.0 receptions on 2.1 targets for 23.6 receiving yards, finding the end zone once. Last week against the TE position, the Chiefs limited the volume, only allowing three receptions to the Chargers' TEs. However, they allowed 68 receiving yards, which was by far the highest yards per reception to TEs (22.7). Calcaterra should see a massive uptick in work, especially considering Hurts targeted Goedert at a 30.6% rate in Week 1.

Suggested pick:

Grant Calcaterra o19.5 receiving yards

QB Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes delivered production in the opener against the Chargers but did so without much efficiency, completing 24 of 39 passes for 258 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 57 yards and another score. Outside of a 37-yard schemed touchdown to Travis Kelce and a 49-yard busted coverage to Marquise Brown, he averaged just 4.6 yards per attempt, struggling to create consistent chunk plays with Rashee Rice (suspension) and Xavier Worthy (shoulder) unavailable. A key note, though: against Los Angeles’ zone looks, Mahomes still managed 7.69 yards per attempt. That’s important with Philadelphia on deck after they played zone on 80.0% of their defensive snaps in Week 1, the seventh-highest rate in the league. The Eagles held Dak Prescott to 188 yards at 5.5 YPA last week and have allowed only four 20-point quarterback performances since the start of 2024. With his top targets out and Philadelphia’s zone forcing him to stay patient underneath while their pass rush closes in, Mahomes will again have to lean on efficiency and off-script playmaking rather than explosive gains to move the ball.

Suggested Play:
'U' 255.5 Passing Yards (–110)

 

RB Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco led Kansas City’s backfield rotation in Week 1, logging 51% of the snaps and handling early-down work while Kareem Hunt rotated on passing downs and short-yardage plays. Pacheco finished with just 5 carries for 25 yards and added 2 catches for 3 yards, but his role was clearly defined ahead of Hunt and rookie Brashard Smith. He now faces an Eagles run defense that looked more vulnerable in Week 1 after Jalen Carter’s ejection. Philadelphia posted only a 31.6% stuff rate, and Javonte Williams took advantage with an efficient performance as Denver’s lead back, part of a rushing attack that totaled 107 yards and 2 scores. The Eagles allowed 3.10 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, giving runners room to get downhill. Pacheco managed only 7 rushing yards on 3 carries when these teams last met in February with Carter in the lineup, but with a softer front showing up last week, his physical running style gives him a chance to rebound if the Chiefs commit to him early. I think we see more of an emphasis on the run this week after the Chiefs essentially abandoned it in Week 1.

Suggested Play:
'O' 34.5 Rushing Yards (–110)

WR Hollywood Brown

Hollywood Brown took on a featured role in Week 1 after Rashee Rice’s suspension and Xavier Worthy’s early exit, and Patrick Mahomes leaned heavily on him with 16 targets (41%). Brown turned that volume into 10 catches for 99 yards, though nearly half of his production came on a 49-yard deep ball where the Chargers’ secondary lost track of him in coverage. Otherwise, most of his work came in the short-to-intermediate areas, where Kansas City schemed quick throws to move the chains. He ran 52% of his routes from the slot, which sets up a tough Week 2 matchup against Cooper DeJean and an Eagles defense that just suffocated Dallas’ slot receivers—holding them to 17 yards on 7 receptions across 12 targets (2.43 YPR, 1.42 YPT). With Philadelphia playing zone on 80.0% of their snaps in Week 1, Brown should see steady volume underneath, but replicating another near-100-yard game will be much tougher if the Eagles avoid coverage busts.

Suggested Play:
'U' 65.5 Receiving Yards (–110)

 

TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce was quiet for much of Kansas City’s opener, seeing just 4 targets and finishing with 2 catches for 47 yards. Still, he showed why he remains Patrick Mahomes’ most trusted weapon by breaking free for a 37-yard touchdown late in the game. Kelce ran a route on 81% of dropbacks, confirming his role as a full-time piece of the offense even if the volume was modest. His Week 2 matchup with Philadelphia is difficult—the Eagles allowed the fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends last season (34.8) and just held Jake Ferguson to 23 yards—but Kelce’s red-zone chemistry with Mahomes is hard to ignore. Even when yardage is capped, his ability to uncover on broken plays and designed looks makes him a constant scoring threat.

Suggested Play:
Anytime Touchdown (+165)

To put it lightly. The Chiefs looked like absolute shit last week against the Chargers. Mahomes' accuracy was terrible and did nothing in the 1Q which raises concern for me. Now the Eagles in the SB killed these guys and I wont be shocked if they win this one by 10+ points. The Chiefs dynasty seems to be over. Kelce is not the same guy he used to be. The Chiefs defense looked really bad last week as well which kept them in 90% of their games last season. Give me the Birds on the ML

Best Bet: Eagles ML -115
Lean: Under 46.5 -110
Score Prediction Eagles 27 Chiefs 14

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Bet: (Chiefs) Travis Kelce +165

Travis Kelce was quiet for much of Kansas City’s opener, seeing just 4 targets and finishing with 2 catches for 47 yards. Still, he showed why he remains Patrick Mahomes’ most trusted weapon by breaking free for a 37-yard touchdown late in the game. Kelce ran a route on 81% of dropbacks, confirming his role as a full-time piece of the offense even if the volume was modest. His Week 2 matchup with Philadelphia is difficult—the Eagles allowed the fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends last season (34.8) and just held Jake Ferguson to 23 yards—but Kelce’s red-zone chemistry with Mahomes is hard to ignore. Even when yardage is capped, his ability to uncover on broken plays and designed looks makes him a constant scoring threat.

 

Best Pick: (Eagles): Devonta Smith Anytime TD (+210)

The value on a Smith TD here seems crazy to me, considering his track record against the Chiefs and how they struggle against slot WRs AND with Goedert missing this matchup. Kansas City also allowed the third most receiving TD (12) to slot receivers last season.

 

First Touchdown Picks

Longshot: (Chiefs) Patrick Mahomes +1600

Patrick Mahomes reminded everyone in Week 1 that his legs remain a weapon, piling up 57 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. With the Chiefs still shorthanded at receiver, Mahomes’ willingness to scramble or take designed keepers near the goal line becomes even more valuable. The matchup isn’t a bad one to lean on that element, either—Philadelphia’s defense just allowed 107 rushing yards and 2 scores to Denver’s backs in Week 1, posting only a 31.6% stuff rate. If Kansas City’s passing game stalls early against the Eagles’ zone-heavy coverage, Mahomes breaking the pocket in the red zone is a realistic path to the game’s first touchdown.

 

Best Pick: (Eagles) Jalen Hurts First TD (+500)

Kind of boring odds, but with Hurts' dual threat ability, he's often quick to resort to rushing it in himself if he does not see anything in the end zone.

Parlay 1: (Eagles) +250 odds on bet365

Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Jalen Hurts 200+ Passing Yards

Devonta Smith 60+ Receiving Yards

QB Michael Penix Jr.

Michael Penix opened the season last week against Tampa Bay and completed 27 of 42 passes (64.3%) for 298 yards and a TD touchdown. He also rushed for 21 yards on 6 carries, while finding the end zone. The Falcons took the loss, but they have to feel good about Penix's performance. ATL knew Todd Bowles would bring multiple blitz packages but Penix handled it like a pro completing 9 of 12 passes for 128 yards when blitzed without throwing a single interception. Last Sunday should have Penix well-prepared when they go up against a Brian Flores led Minnesota defense who in the 2nd half against Chicago, blitzed Caleb Williams 43.3% of the time which the Bears had no answer for. I look for Penix to have some regression here on the road where they enter with a team projected point total of just 20. Everybody seems to be on Penix this week because of how he looked against the Bucs pressure, but the prognosticators are forgetting that Michael Penix Jr. has just one road start under his belt and it just so happens that Penix finished with his lowest QB rating of 71.5%. It's going to be a loud atmosphere for the Vikings home opener, and while I Penix is a primary passer I think we will see him use his legs at times. This makes his pass(+)rush yards a safter play. Admittedly, I haven't been high on Penix in the past but I must say he impressed me last week with his overall poise. Road games aren't easy to win for young QB's but let's remember he is going up against another rookie in Jake McCarthy who he certainly has history with.

Suggested Pick:

Michael Penix Jr. 240+ Pass+Riush Yards (-138)

 

RB Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson had an overall solid performance in the Falcons week 1 home loss to the Bucs. Robinson recorded 124 all-purpose yards while finding the end one once on an electrifying 50-yard receiving TD right out of the shoot. What I'm about to say about Bijan may come with a high level of ridicule but hear me loud and clear when I say that all Robinson rushing props should be avoided until further notice, and now I'm going to back that up. The Falcons star RB had just 12 carries for 24 yards but this was a result that was two-fold. For starters, he wasn't done any favors by having to face an incredible Buccaneers run defense. In his 2 games last season vs TB, Robinson rushed for 61 and 63 yards respectively, but if you go back and look at my week 1 game guide you will find my write up was spot on. I hammered his u15.5 rushing yard toal last Sunday and avoided all rushing props. I knew Robinson's ceiling for rush yards would be 50 yards at best, and this is because the Buccaneers were without DT Kalijah Kancey for the first half of the season. With a healthy Kancey to start the '25 season alongside star DT Vita Vea there was no place for Bijan to go, and this was clearly evident as he averaged just 2.0 yards per carry. The second part to this is that key starting offensive linemen Kaleb McGary and Drew Dahlman are going to miss significant time, and their absence in week 1 had an immediate impact on the Falcons run game. Their O-line was unable to create any holes for Robinson on Sunday, and this is exactly why Alanta was HC Raheem Morris altered his game plan to get Robinson out for short passes. This paid big dividends as he caught 6 balls for 100 yards. With all of that said he will now face a Vikings team who in ’24 allowed the 6^th fewest receiving yards to running backs at 27.3 yards for game. Last week in Chicago, this Vikings trend continued as they limited D’Andre Swift to just 3 catches for 12 yards, and this against a RB who was one of the best pass catchers out of the backfield in all of 24 . Last season, Swift caught 42 balls for 386 yards. As for Bijan Robinson, he was slightly better totaling 431 receiving yards last season. In reality, Swift was far more efficient because Robinson did this on 61 receptions. We are getting an overly inflated receiving yard total, because the Buccaneers allowed the 5^th most receiving yard to opposing RB’s in ’24, and if were not for his 50-yard reception scant this number would have been truer to Tampa Bay’s average form. There are a lot ways you could play Robinson’s under totals today but I think the safest is in his combined rushing + receiving.

Suggested Pick:

Bijan Robinson u97.5 Rush+Receiving Yards (-114)

 

WR Drake London

Despite only 4 starts together QB Michael Penix and WR Drake London have developed an immediate connection, and it was on clear display last Sunday  in Atlanta where London received a plethora of targets from his starting quarterback. The Falcons WR had 15 balls thrown his way for a target rate of 35.5%, and if you include their L3 games together going back to the '24 season, London has been the benefactor of 45 targets thrown his way. The main issue in week 1 is that London caught only 8 of 15 targets for a rather pedestrian 55 yards. Drake's low yardage total this past Sunday is concerning because they faced a Buccaneer defense that allowed the 7th most yards to opposing wide receivers last season. Tonight, they will face a very similar opponent when they travel to Minnesota. The Vikings defense surrendered 210 passing yards on MNF to Chicago but nobody logged more than 66 yards. With regard to SNF, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that Falcons head coach Raheem Morris will implement a similar strategy. I'm not saying Drake London can't or won't post an adequate yardage total but when you consider his 55 yard total against a team who poorly defended the wide receiver position last season it should cause you to have major reservations. But, all is not bad because the Vikings are coming off a short week and the golden nugget for Drake London tonight is that MIN allowed the 2nd most receptions to the WR position in '24. Most importantly, Darnell Mooney will be playing tonight and that will force the Vikes to stay honest and this means London should once again have several balls going in his direction. With a 17-game season, it has made skill players playing before NFL Opening Sunday nearly extinct. Week 1 has turned into nothing more than a glorified preseason game. The reason this has relevance is because we should see Penix and London connect at a better rate, and even with Atlanta being on the road it’s important to remind you again that Vikings are coming off a short week and this always has a much larger impact on the defensive side of the ball. Drake London’s receptions is your play.

Suggested Pick:

Drake London 6+ Receptions (-176)

 

WR Darnell Mooney

I’ve already dissected the Viking defense in great detail within my Drake London write up, so for the sake being repetitive this will be fairly short. With that said, I will remind you that similar to Tampa Bay, Minnesota too has struggled in the past in allowing lots of yards to the opposing team’s WR position. There’s no doubt that Drake London should see the lion share of targets on Sunday night, and this is why Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards total has great value. One of the reasons why the Vikings give up so many yards out of the air is because they tend to focus on making it a priority to defend the running game. Minnesota’s primary focus is going to be on Bijan Robinson, Drake London and don’t forget the legs of Michael Pennix. This should allow Mooney lots of opportunities for big plays tonight. I realize this will be his first game and many are labeling him a boom or bust play here but as for me I'm saying, "Boom goes the dynamite!"

Suggested Pick:

Darnell Mooney o44.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 

 

TE Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts has been one of the most frustrating players to project because he is extremely unreliable. That said, he did put together a nice week 1 as he caught 7 of the 8 targets thrown his way for 59 yards. We know we're going to see a high volume of plays surrounding Penix, Robinson and London but when you throw Darnell Mooney in makes Kyle Pitts a very difficult player to rely upon. And this takes us back full circle when I talked about him being frustrating to project. Atlanta has a lot of offensive weapons that draw attention, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Pitts have a decent game but it's just not worth the headache of sitting through 60 minutes waiting to see if he's going to do something.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

QB JJ McCarthy

If you only watched the first three quarters of JJ McCarthy's NFL debut, you're probably not even reading this right now. But if you stuck through it and watched the fourth quarter, McCarthy sucked you all the way back in. Just in the fourth quarter alone, McCarthy went 6/8 for 87 passing yards and two TDs through the air, and bulldozed his way for a 14-yard rushing TD. It took him a while to get into the game, but that was expected for a young QB making his NFL debut. This week, McCarthy will face off against the Atlanta Falcons, who allowed the ninth-fewest passing yards (167) and the fourth-lowest completion percentage (53.13%) in Week 1. The Falcons ran the ninth-most zone coverage (78.4%). McCarthy didn't get tested much against zone coverage in Week 1, seeing zone coverage at the lowest percentage of his dropbacks. He went 4/8 for just 18 passing yards against zone. While McCarthy did figure it out as the game went on, he still only managed to pass for 143 yards. And against a defence that held Baker Mayfield, a back-to-back 4500+ yard passer, to under 200 yards, how are we supposed to believe McCarthy is going to do better in this matchup?

Suggested pick:

JJ McCarthy u218.5 Passing Yards (-110)

 

RB Aaron Jones

Week 1 provided us with a lot of insight into how the Vikings' backfield is expected to perform in 2025. Aaron Jones was given every opportunity to retain his role from last season as an every-down back. However, once he struggled to get going on the ground, his role was changed to mostly passing downs and helping in the receiving game. In the second half, Mason dominated the touches, outcarrying Jones 11 to 6. Considering this, Jones should see plenty of passing game volume, as the Falcons allowed five receptions, but that only turned into 10 receiving yards. Jones caught all three of his targets for 44 receiving yards. He might not see the same success in the yardage-wise, but his role as a safety net for his rookie QB will remain intact.

Suggested Pick:

Aaron Jones o2.5 Receptions (-125)

 

RB Jordan Mason

Now, I think Jordan Mason is the RB for the Vikings who is going to evolve into a full-time starter as the year progresses. He showed that he was the relied-upon option in short-yardage situations, as well as when the Vikings had the lead, trying to bleed the clock. Mason took advantage of his 15 carries, turning that into 68 rushing yards, good for a 4.5 yards per carry. However, the Falcons' defence performed well against the Buccaneers' RBs, holding them to just 53 rushing yards on 17 rush attempts – 3.1 yards per carry. While we prefer Mason in the running game, I think the sportsbooks have acted a little too quickly on bumping up his rushing yards line to 57.5, especially in this difficult matchup; however, as 3.5 home favourites, Vegas is predicting the Vikings' offence clicking, which aligns nicely for him to find the end zone.

Suggested Pick:

Jordan Mason TD (+105)

 

WR Justin Jefferson

I don't know how you can look at the quality of QB play from McCarthy in Week 1 and have any sort of confidence in Justin Jefferson for the 2025 season. Sure, he found the end zone, but he was only able to corral four of his seven targets for 44 receiving yards. McCarthy will eventually improve, but it may take a few weeks for Jefferson to return to his full potential. This week, Jefferson faces the Falcons' pass defence, which allowed 157 receiving yards on just 12 WR receptions, which amounts to 13.1 yards per reception. In Week 1, Jefferson's aDoT (10.7) was actually just one yard under his average from 2024. So, not much of a decrease in that regard. However, where Jefferson might struggle is in the CB matchup against AJ Terrell. Terrell showed he was one of the elite CBs last season, and allowed just four receptions on seven targets for 28 receiving yards in Week 1. But with the Falcons running zone at the ninth-highest-rate in the league last week, Jefferson might be able to get away from the Terrell shadow and produce. Against zone coverage last season, Jefferson saw his catch rate increase nearly 30%. With him and McCarthy continuing to try to develop their chemistry, Jefferson should see plenty of work, yet again.

Suggested pick:

Justin Jefferson o5.5 Receptions (-145)

 

WR Adam Thielen

We predicted it accurately last week. Adam Thielen was not really a factor in the passing game. Despite seeing 57.1% of the snaps in Week 1, Thielen earned just one target, but could not haul it in. Surprisingly, Thielen ran most of his routes out wide (57.1%), which could explain some of his struggles, as he's used to playing more of a slot role. If that continues, Thielen will likely struggle again, as he will likely draw the Mike Hughes matchup. Hughes allowed just two catches on five targets, for 20 receiving yards. With Thielen not really involved in the offence last week, as well as his difficult CB matchup, we don't expect much to differ for Thielen in Week 2.

Suggested pick:

Adam Thielen u19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE TJ Hockenson

We were all in on TJ Hockenson in Week 1, but he disappointed in what should have been an easy matchup for him. Hockenson caught three of his four targets, but for just 15 receiving yards. It won't get much easier for Hockenson this week, as the Falcons' defence held Cade Otton and the entire Buccaneers offence to zeroes across the board on their three targets. Even last season against inline receivers – where Hockenson ran most of his routes in Week 1 – the Falcons allowed the third-lowest yards per reception. We don't expect Hockenson to be fully shut down as Otton was in Week 1, but trusting his yardage line is too risky. But he should see a similar volume as the previous week.

Suggested pick:

TJ Hockenson o3.5 Receptions (-150)

Historically, teams coming off a short week in the NFL win at a 47.2% rate the following Sunday, which isn't bad but it's also not great. The Falcons home opener ended on a sour note against divisional rival Tampa Bay last Sunday thanks to Younghoe Koo's badly botched 44-yard FG that would have sent the game into OT. It also ended Younghoe Koo's career as an Atlanta Falcon kicker. Minnesota's win over the Bears is not exactly much to get excited about and I think the Falcons are going to be really hungry tonight. I also can't help but think that locker room wants to rally around Penix so he can avenge last year's National Championship loss. 

Best Bet: Falcons +3.5 (-115)
Lean: Over 44.5 (-110)
Score Prediction: Falcons 27, Vikings 23

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: (Vikings): Jordan Mason TD (+105)

We touched on it earlier, but Mason's role should continue to increase as the weeks go on. And while the Vikings did not have a rush attempt inside the five, given how they handled short-yardage situations in Week 1, Mason should be the one receiving the goal-line work if the Vikings get into scoring position.

Best Pick: (Falcons): Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (-135)

I think Bijan Robinson's overall numbers will take a hit tonight but that doesn't mean he won't find the end zone. He gets all of the goal line carries in Atlanta, and while the Vikings were good in limiting RB's to 14 TD's last year they weren't dominant and Bijan is a special breed. Going back to '24 the Falcons running back has scored at least one TD in 6/L7 games (1,2,2,2,0,1,1).

 

First Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: (Vikings) Justin Jefferson First TD (+550)

We're really building on the narrative that the Vikings want to establish chemistry between McCarthy and Jefferson as early as possible. And even if the Falcons try to stop it, sometimes Jefferson's talent is too good for even the best CBs in the game to stop. The Falcons allowed two receiving TDs in Week 1 to rookie Emeka Egbuka. So if they are going to be beaten early, the Vikings know which matchups to exploit early on.

Best Pick: (Falcons) Kyle Pitts First TD (+2000)

No doubt this is longshot material, and while it's hard to know what to expect from Kyle Pitts there's just too much value to not jump on this. The Atlanta TE is feeling good after coming off a solid game and he's playing with confidence. While, I'm confident Bijan Robinson finds the end zone on Sunday, I'm also aware the Vikings don't make it easy on RB's at the goal line. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a 1st and Goal play action pass to an unadulterated Kyle Pitts with everyone else focused on Bijan and Drake London. 

Parlay 1: (Vikings) +260 odds on bet365

Jordan Mason 10+ Rush Attempts

Aaron Jones 3+ Receptions

Justin Jefferson 6+ Receptions

 

Parlay 2: (Falcons) +158 Draft Kings

Drake London 6+ Receptions 

Bijan Robinson 4+ Receptions

 

Longshot Parlay: (Falcons) +1100 Draft Kings

Michael Penix 15+ Rushing Yards

Drake London 8+ Receptions

Darnell Mooney 50+ Receiving Yards