QB Tua Tagovailoa

Since week 7, the Dolphins have been the most run heavy team in the NFL, with a -7.8% pass rate over expected rate. Tua is averaging 185.2 passing yards per game, 6.76 YPA and a 66.9% completion rate. He’s thrown 18 TDs and 14 interceptions. He’ll face a Steelers defense that ranks 13th best in EPA/Pass, but has allowed the 6th most passing yards per game. The Steelers have the 8th lowest pressure rate on the season (34.8%). They run single-high at the 6th highest rate (58.5%) and man coverage at the 7th highest rate (34.2%). When not pressured, Tua sees positive splits, averaging 7.36 YPA and a 71.5% completion rate. Against single-high safety looks, he averages 7.02 YPA and a 60.6% completion rate. Against man coverage, he averages 5.70 YPA and a 60% completion rate. The Dolphins are 3-point underdogs and this game has a modest 42.5 implied total. Expect the Dolphins to remain run heavy unless the Steelers take a commanding lead.

Suggested Pick:

Under 28.5 Pass Attempts (-132)

RB De’Von Achane

Achane averages 86.6 rushing yards per game on 5.83 YPC. He leads the league in explosive run rate amongst qualified RBs at 10.4%. Explosive runs account for 46.7% of total yards (526). Achane left in the first half last week with a rib injury, but all indications point to Achane being a full go for Monday night. Even playing just 1 half, Achane had 105 total yards and a touchdown. This week, he’ll face a Steelers defense that ranks 6th worst in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 12th most rushing yards per game (125.3). The Steelers are specifically weak against man/gap run concepts. They allow the 6th most YPC (5.05) and the 5th highest success rate (56.7%). That compares to the 12th fewest YPC (4.05) and the 11th lowest success rate (45.7%) against zone concepts. Just 36.3% of Achane’s rush attempts have been in man/gap, yet his production has been stellar. He’s averaging 7.06 YPC and a 52.9% success rate. From a receiving perspective, Achane is averaging 4.2 receptions for 29.5 receiving yards per game. The Steelers are middle of the pack in receiving yards and receptions allowed to RBs. However, Achane is not a typical RB and has lined up in the slot and out wide at times. The Steelers run single-high at the 6th highest rate (58.5%). Achane has negative production splits against single-high, averaging 1.14 YPRR and 29% TPRR, compared to 1.71 YPRR and 27% TPRR against two-high. 

Suggested Pick:

Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Anytime Touchdown (-110)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Prior to Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, Waddle averaged 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.75 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 25.6% 1st-read rate. In the 9 games without Tyreek, Waddle is averaging 69.7 receiving yards per game, 2.94 YPRR, 29% TPRR and a 32.4% 1st-read rate. Waddle has lined up out wide on 76.5% of his routes since Tyreek went down. He’ll face a Steelers defense that ranks 13th best in EPA/Pass, but has allowed the 6th most receiving yards per game. They specifically allow the 13th fewest YPRR to wide alignment (1.86). The Steelers have the 8th lowest pressure rate on the season (34.8%). They run single-high at the 6th highest rate (58.5%) and man coverage at the 7th highest rate (34.2%). When his QB has not been pressured, Waddle averages 3.75 YPRR and 36% TPRR since week 5. Against single-high, he averages 3.41 YPRR and 31% TPRR. Against man, he averages 1.36 YPRR and 36% TPRR in just a 28 route sample size. The biggest drawback for Waddle has been the Dolphins run heavy approach. They are dead last in pass rate over expected since week 7. 

Suggested Pick:

Under 63.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

TE Darren Waller

Week 13 was Waller’s first action since week 7 due to a pec injury, he ran a route on 65.5% of dropbacks. He caught 2 of 3 targets for 47 yards. Last week, his route share decreased to 54.5% as Greg Dulcich cut into some of Waller’s playing time, who had a 50% route participation rate. Dulcich was more productive, catching 3 of 3 targets for 41 yards. Waller caught just 1 of 3 targets for 13 yards last week. We’ll see if this was just a one off or this TE group will be split moving forward. On the season, Waller is averaging 1.77 YPRR and 18% TPRR. He’ll face a Steelers defense that ranks 13th best in EPA/Pass, but has allowed the 6th most receiving yards per game. The Steelers specifically allow the 8th most receiving yards and 4th most receiving TDs to opposing TEs this season. The Steelers run single-high at the 6th highest rate (58.5%) and man coverage at the 7th highest rate (34.2%). Waller averages 1.35 YPRR and 12% TPRR against single-high. He averages 2.06 YPRR and 25% TPRR in a 16 route sample size against man. Waller has 5 redzone targets in 6 games, I like the value for him to score despite a possible decreased role with the emergence of Dulcich.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (+275)

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers had his best game of the season last week against the Ravens, completing 23 of 34 pass attempts for 284 yards and a passing TD. He also added a touchdown on the ground. On the season, he’s averaging 197.5 passing yards per game, 6.89 YPA and a 65.4% completion rate. He’s thrown for 20 TDs and 7 interceptions. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks 12th worst in EPA/Pass but has allowed the 13th fewest passing yards per game (202.6). The Dolphins have a top 8 blitz rate (31.9%). They run two-high safeties at the 6th highest rate (56.9%). When blitzed, Rodgers averages 7.44 YPA, a 60% completion rate and a solid QB rating of 106.9. Against two-high, Rodgers averages 7.14 YPA, a 67.5% completion rate and a 102.1 QB rating. The Steelers are 3-point home favorites with a modest 42.5 implied total. Rodgers completed 4 passes on throws 20+ yards downfield last week, he hasn’t had one completion over 20 yards since week 8 prior to this. I lean over at a low number but don't have a ton of confidence.

Suggested Pick:

Over 210.5 Passing Yards (-114) *Lean

RB Jaylen Warren

Warren and Gainwell have split work as of late, with equivalent 49% snap rates last week. On the season, Warren averages 54.3 rushing yards per game on 4.10 YPC. He’s rushed for 4 rushing TDs. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that has allowed the 11th fewest rushing yards per game (105.5) and the 2nd lowest success rate (41.5%) since week 6. 65.4% of Warren’s rush attempts have been in zone concept, where he’s averaging 4.16 YPC and a 51% success rate. That compares to 4.24 YPC and a 60.8% success rate in man/gap. The Dolphins allow the 16th most YPC (4.09) and the T-6th lowest success rate (44.2%) against man/gap since week 6. The Dolphins have been tougher against man/gap, allowing the 6th fewest YPC (3.68) and the lowest success rate (32.9%) since week 6.  In the receiving game, Warren has had some spike weeks, averaging 23.1 receiving yards per game on 2.5 receptions. The Dolphins allow the 10th most receiving yards and 13th most receptions to RBs. The Dolphins run two-high safeties at the 6th highest rate (56.9%). Warren has positive splits against two-high, averaging 3.04 YPRR and 33% TPRR. That compares to 1.08 YPRR and 18% TPRR against single-high. Despite this, Warren’s route participation rate has been inconsistent, Gainwell has ran more routes than Warren in 7 of the last 9 games.

Suggested Pick:

Under 53.5 Rushing yards (-119)

WR DK Metcalf

DK had his best game of the season last week against the Ravens, catching 7 of 12 targets for 148 receiving yards. On the season, he’s averaging 57.9 receiving yards per game, 2.04 YPRR and he’s been targeted on 24% of his routes. He leads the team in 1st-read rate at 28.7%. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks 12th worst in EPA/Pass but has allowed the 13th fewest receiving yards per game (202.6). DK has lined up out wide on 80.3% of his routes. The Dolphins are allowing the 6th fewest YPRR (1.73) to wide alignment. The Dolphins have a top 8 blitz rate (31.9%). They run two-high safeties at the 6th highest rate (56.9%). When his QB is blitzed, DK averages 1.34 YPRR, 16% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 17.9%. Against two-high, DK averages 1.67 YPRR, 18% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 22%. Not a great matchup from a schematic perspective and DK has been a boom or bust player all season.

Suggested Pick:

Under 56.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

TE Pat Freiermuth/Jonnu Smith/Darnell Washington

This tight end group is tough to figure out. Darnell Washington left in the 2nd quarter last week with a concussion. Freiermuth ended up having the highest route participation rate at 57.1%. However, Darnell has been cleared to play for Monday night. None of the 3 TEs has led the group in route rate in back to back weeks since week 7-8 (Jonnu). Despite leading the TEs in route rate last week, Freiermuth caught just 2 of 3 targets for 9 yards. Darnell Washington caught his only target for 12 yards. Jonnu was unable to pull in his 1 target. This group will play a Dolphins defense that ranks 12th worst in EPA/Pass but has allowed the 13th fewest receiving yards per game (202.6). They do however allow the 4th most receiving yards, 5th most receptions and 7th most receiving TDs to TE. There’s upside with the matchup here, but I’m not confident in choosing the right guy.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

This game feels like a spot where Mike Tomlin and the Steelers find a way to win ugly. This game will be played in Pittsburgh and the forecast is 17 degrees, Tua does not like playing in the cold. The Dolphins defense has been better as of late and the Dolphins offense has been run heavy, I prefer the under here in primetime.

Best Bet: Under 42.5 (-110)

Lean: Steelers -2.5 (-142)

Score Prediction: Steelers 20 Dolphins 17

Anytime TD Scorer

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) -110

Has scored a touchdown in 9 of 13 games this season and the Steelers have struggled against the run, ranking 6th worst in EPA/Rush. The Dolphins have been the most run-heavy team in the NFL since week 7, and even if the Dolphins go down early, Achane is more than capable of scoring in the receiving game.

Kenneth Gainwell (Steelers) +165

Gainwell outsnapped Warren 7 to 2 in the red zone against the Ravens last week, and has also been running more routes than Warren. Gainwell scored last week and I like him to find the endzone for the 2nd straight week. The Dolphins have been much better against the run as of late, but I still like the value here.

First TD Scorer

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) +475

Same analysis as anytime, Achane has scored a 1Q touchdown in 2 straight games, why not make it 3 in a bullish matchup.

Kenneth Gainwell (Steelers) +850

I prefer Gainwell over Warren to score early as he outsnapped Warren 7 to 2 in the redzone last week and scored once. He scored in the 1H too, like the value!

Parlay #1 (Steelers) +527

Aaron Rodgers 200+ Passing Yards
DK Metcalf Under 55.5 Receiving Yards
Jaylen Warren Under 48.5 Rushing Yards

Parlay #2 (Dolphins) +402

De’Von Achane Over 79.5 Rushing Yards
De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown
Jaylen Waddle Under 63.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay #3 (Longshot) +1139

De’Von Achane 100+ Rushing Yards
De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown
Jaylen Warren under 48.5 Rushing Yards
DK Metcalf Under 55.5 Receiving Yards

QB Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins is coming off a horrendous performance against the Seattle Seahawks, where he completed 15 of 30 passes for 162 yards and 2 INTs. This Thursday night he will face the Buccaneers, and for as good as their run defense has been, their pass defense is equally bad. This is not to be blamed on CBs Zyon McCollum and Jamel Dean, but rather a pair of safeties who have been torched for blown coverages all season long. No matter what Tampa Bay has run this year, they've had issues containing opposing offenses. With that said, Cover-3 (42.8%) has been the Bucs reliable and consistently run scheme in Todd Bowles' defensive arsenal, and fortunate for TB this is where Cousins has performed quite poorly, posting a QBR of just 73.1. He has seen his most success when facing Cover-1 and Cover-4, which have been the two coverages the Bucs have struggled the most against opposing QBs. I look for Bowles to dial up more Cover-3 tonight and raise Tampa's rate of Cover-2. The Buccaneers are only running this on 12.7% of its snaps, but it has yielded positive results. On the contrary, Cousins has been awful against Cover-2 with a 51.7 QBR and 5.3 YPA. I'm targeting Kirk Cousins completions in this game. Even in a blowout loss last week, Atlanta threw the ball 13% below expectations. In fact, over the past three weeks with Cousins under center, the Falcons have thrown an overall 12% below expectations, including 5% below on first downs. It just shows what very little trust they have in Kirk Cousins and the current version of the Atlanta Falcons passing game. After a terrible performance by the defense in a week 14 home game vs the Saints, I can only imagine the Tampa Bay defense will bounce back against a Falcons offense that has more closely resembled a punching bag as of late.

Suggested Bet:

Kirk Cousins u19.5 Completions (-117)

RB Bijan Robinson

Nobody has surrendered more receiving yards to opposing RBs than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are allowing tailbacks to catch for 53.9 YPG, and this is while ranking 12th in receptions given up per game to the RB position. We all know the Bucs have a propensity for giving up big plays, and Bijan creates a difficult matchup for the Bucs every time he steps onto the field. Now, I talked last week about Atlanta decreasing their usage with Robinson as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but it got them rather poor results last week. I look for Raheem Morris to go back to utilizing, arguably the league's best receiving running back. We are coming off a short week, which means smaller scripts and faster throws. With Drake London out for tonight, I look for the Falcons targets to funnel back underneath to its RBs and TEs. The Bucs zone concedes the flats and struggles vs RB receivers. A negative game script, along with blitz avoidance should mean 6-8 targets for Bijan with YAC upside. Robinson is always a threat for a big play, but simple screen passes and option routes should get us 40+ yards here.

Suggested Bet:

Bijan Robinson o39.5 Rec Yards (-111)

WR Darnell Mooney

I have trashed on Darnell Mooney (and rightfully so) for the past several weeks, but if ever there is a spot for him to find success it's here. Atlanta will funnel much of their passing offense to its running backs and tight ends, but they simply cannot just continue to ignore the wide receiver position. The Falcons absolutely must find a way to get Mooney involved in this game, and it's on Hitch & Out routes where they can most utilize his skill set. On said routes, Mooney has a 26.4% target share to go with 2.24 YPRR, where he's caught 17 of 28 targets (60.7% CR). In all of his other targets combined, he's had just 5 receptions on 24 targets (20.8% CR). Tampa Bay provides a solid matchup opportunity for Mooney on TNF. The Bucs defense has allowed 32 receptions to Hitch & Out routes (4th most since Week 10), giving up 9.4 YPR to go with a 76.2% CR. The Falcons won't be able to rely on a banged-up Kyle Pitts for four quarters. They have to work Darnell Mooney into tonight's script, and this is a game where he can find success and added value.

QB Baker Mayfield

Best Bet:  Under 43.5 (-110)
Lean:  Buccaneers -112
Score Prediction:  27-10

The Bucs are breaking out the creamsicles for this game. It is technically not a must win for the Bucs, but the team is view it as such. You simply are not a playoff caliber team if you lose back-to-back games in the NFC South division to the Saints and Falcons. HC Raheem Morris has already come out and made it clear to reporters that he knows in order for Atlanta to find success with the back of half of their schedule they must be efficient and control the clock as much as they can. Whether or not he finds any success or not remain to be seen, but Bijan Robinson is going to get a lot of volume tonight running the football in order keep the clock running. The Bucs skill players are finally healthy for Tampa Bay, but in the end this game will be won in the trenches and that's where the Buccaneers O-line is preventing them from putting up the points they did last year. On the other side of the ball we have an Atlanta offense led by a starting QB with a dead arm. Now, factor in this game being played on a short week and I'm leaning on the under at Raymond James Stadium.

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick (Buccaneers): Emeka Egbuka +165

Emeka Egbuka caught his first career NFL touchdown against the Falcons in week 1. It was part of 4 catch, 67 yard debut for the Bucs rookie WR who found the end zone 2x in Atlanta. It's been tough sledding lately for Egbuka as of late, but with the return of Mike Evans this will be the first time ever he will be on the field at the same time with he and Chris Godwin. The Falcons have allowed the 4th most TDs to opposing WRs (16) this season, and the threat of Mike Evans alone in the red zone gives Egbuka a big boost.

First TD Scorer

Longshot (Falcons): David Sills V +2500

As I discussed at length in tonight's guide, David Sills V offers Atlanta very little production driving down the field, but he does provide the Falcons with a solid target in the red zone. Over the last 4 weeks, David Sills leads all pass-catchers from both Atlanta and Tampa Bay with 4 targets inside the 20-yard line. He's only caught 5 balls during this four week stretch, but he's caugh a TD in 2 of his L3 games and if the Falcons can position themselves to score first this is insane value!!

Parlay #1 (Buccaneers)  +405

Baker Mayfield 20+ Rush Yards

Chris Godwin 40+ Rec Yards

Bucky Irving 3+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Falcons)  +415

Bijan Robinson 40+ Rec Yards

Darnell Mooney 40+ Rec Yards

Kyle Pitts 5+ Receptions

QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen is averaging 237 passing yards per game, 8.16 YPA and has a completion rate of 70.1%. He’s thrown for 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 11th best in EPA/Pass and the 14th fewest passing yards per game (207). Since week 4, when the Patriots got their top corner Christian Gonzalez back, their top 3 coverages in terms of frequency have been Cover 3 (29.1%), Cover 1 (24.3%) and Cover 2 (22.9%). In the head-to-head matchup in week 5, the Patriots ran the 5th highest rate of man on the week (38.5%) and the 2nd highest rate of single-high (64.1%). Considering the Bills see the highest rate of single-high on the season (63.2%), expect that trend to remain true in the 2nd H2H of the season. Against single-high, Josh averages 8.31 YPA and a 68.1% completion rate. Against the Patriots top 3 coverages, Josh averages 8.31 YPA and a 69.7% completion rate. Again man, he averages 7.14 YPA, a 62.2% completion rate, and his QB rating drops to 85.9 compared to 102.9 overall. In Josh’s first H2H against the Patriots, he threw for 251 yards, had a 71% completion rate and threw for 2 passing TDs. He also ran the ball 9 times for 53 yards. This game has a 49.5-point implied total and the Bills are 1-point favorites on the road. Should be a fun one! In games the margin of victory/defeat is between -17 to 10, Allen is over his passing yards line in 6 of 8, averaging 265.4 passing yards per game compared to his season average of 237.2.

Suggested Pick:

Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-114)

RB James Cook

James Cook averages 100.6 rushing yards per game on 5.25 YPC. He’s rushed for 8 rushing touchdowns. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 9th best in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards per game (89.5). Cook ran 15 times for 49 yards in the first head-to-head matchup earlier this season. The Patriots are especially strong against zone concept, allowing the 3rd fewest YPC (3.5). That compares to the 16th fewest YPC in man/gap run concepts (4.36). Cook has a 50-50 split between the 2 concepts, but has been more efficient in zone concept. He averages 5.63 YPC and a 60.3% success rate. That compares to 4.89 YPC and a 52.4% success rate in man/gap. One interesting dynamic here is that the Patriots are dealing with some injuries. They are without their top defensive tackle, Milton Williams. In the past 3 games since his injury, the Patriots are allowing the T-6th most YPC (4.76) and the 14th most rushing yards per game (123.7). I think Cook could see a bit more success here as the Bills try to get their revenge.

Suggested Pick:

Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

WR Khalil Shakir

In the past 2 games, Shakir has caught 3 of 7 targets for a total of 21 receiving yards. On the season, he’s averaging 45 receiving yards per game, 1.85 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. He leads the Bills in 1st-read rate at 22.5%.  He has lined up out of the slot on 70.7% of his routes. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 11th best in EPA/Pass and the 14th fewest receiving yards per game (207). Specifically to the slot, the Patriots allow the 6th fewest YPRR (1.57) and the 10th fewest receiving yards per game (61.5). In the head-to-head matchup in week 5, the Patriots ran the 5th highest rate of man on the week (38.5%) and the 2nd highest rate of single-high (64.1%). Considering the Bills see the highest rate of single-high on the season (63.2%), expect that trend to remain true in the 2nd H2H of the season. Against single-high, Shakir has positive splits, averaging 2.29 YPRR and 26% TPRR. If the Patriots decide to run a high rate of man again, this would be bearish for Shakir. Shakir averages just 1.31 YPRR and 21% TPRR against man coverage. 

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (-102)

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid returned for the first time since week 10 last week, and ran a route on 41.7% of drop backs. That compares to his season-long route participation rate of 46.4%, so just slight limitations.  He caught 4 of 5 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals, the best possible matchup in the league for TEs. Kincaid now averages 54.3 receiving yards per game, 3.30 YPRR and has been targeted on 28% of his routes. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 11th best in EPA/Pass and the 14th fewest receiving yards per game (207). Specifically to TEs, the Patriots are allowing the 11th most receiving yards, 8th most receptions and the 7th fewest receiving TDs. In the head-to-head matchup in week 5, the Patriots ran the 5th highest rate of man on the week (38.5%) and the 2nd highest rate of single-high (64.1%). Considering the Bills see the highest rate of single-high on the season (63.2%), expect that trend to remain true in the 2nd H2H of the season. Against single-high, Kincaid averages 3.27 YPRR and 25% TPRR. If the Patriots decide to run a high rate of man again, this would be a slight downgrade for Kincaid, who averages 2.91 YPRR and 26% TPRR against man coverage. 

Suggested Pick

Over 20.5 1H Receiving Yards (DK -112)

QB Drake Maye

Maye is 2nd in the league in passing yards per game, averaging 262.5, 8.84 YPA and a 71.5% completion rate. He’s thrown 23 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Coming out of the bye, he’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 10th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 2nd fewest passing yards per game (171.8). In the H2H matchup earlier this season, Maye completed 22 of 30 pass attempts for 273 yards and 0 passing TDs.  On the season, the Bills play the 3rd highest rate of two-high (57.2%).  In the first H2H matchup week 5, the Bills played two-high at a 66.7% rate. Against two-high, Maye averages 7.47 YPA and a 70.9% completion rate, slightly negative splits. The Bills top pass rusher, Joey Bosa, returned to practice in a limited capacity this week after missing last week against the Bengals. Without Bosa last week, the Bills had the 4th lowest pressure rate against the Bengals (24.3%). The Patriots will be without their offensive lineman, Will Campbell, protection will be paramount to Maye’s success. 

Suggested Pick:

Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-115)

RB Treveyon Henderson

Treveyon handled 90.3%, 83.1% and 75% of snaps in the 3 games with Rhamondre out. In Rhamondre’s first game back in week 12, Henderson’s snap rate decreased to 64.2%. In week 13, he dipped below Rhamondre at 47.6%. I expect this to be a 50-50 backfield moving forward, as coach Vrabel remains stubborn of simply handing the backfield job to his rookie despite better statistics. On the season, Henderson averages 4.84 YPC and a 4.7% explosive run rate. Since week 9, he’s averaging 5.22 YPC and a 5.3% explosive run rate. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 5th worst in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 5th most rushing yards per game (135.2). Treveyon has been much more productive in zone rush concepts, yet it only accounts for 33.3% of his rush attempts. He’s averaging 5.12 YPC and a 58.1% success rate. That compares to 4.36 YPC and a 43.2% success rate in man/gap. The Bills allow the 2nd most YPC against zone concept (4.98) as well as the 2nd most YPC against man/gap (5.17). They also allow the T-5th highest explosive run rate (6.4%). Last week in the 2nd game back for Stevenson, Rhamondre had a higher route participation rate than Henderson (58.3% to 41.7%). This backfield continues to be a bit unknown, especially coming out of the bye, so I wouldn’t bet on receiving here against a Bills team allowing the 4th fewest receiving yards per game to the position. 

Suggested Pick:

Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

WR Stefon Diggs

Diggs is averaging 54.2 receiving yards per game, 2.30 YPRR and 25% TPRR. He leads the team in 1st-read rate at 22%. Diggs has run 48.5% of his routes out wide and 51.1% from the slot. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 10th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 2nd fewest receiving yards per game (171.8). In the revenge game earlier this season, Diggs went off catching 10 of 12 targets for 146 yards. The Bills allow the 7th fewest YPRR to the slot (1.57) but the 7th most to wide alignment (2.08).  On the season, the Bills play the 3rd highest rate of two-high (57.2%).  In the first H2H matchup week 5, the Bills played two-high at a 66.7% rate. Diggs averages 2.04 YPRR, 28% TPRR and leads the team in 1st-read rate (26.7%) against two-high. This should be a competitive divisional rivalry game (BUF -1.5) with a high implied total (49.5), expecting a shootout and weapons on both sides to benefit.

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (-120)

WR Kayshon Boutte

Boutte is averaging 43.7 receiving yards per game, 1.77 YPRR and 14% TPRR. Boutte has run 89% of his routes from wide alignment. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 10th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 2nd fewest receiving yards per game (171.8). In the head-to-head matchup earlier this season, Boutte caught 3 of 3 targets for 43 receiving yards. Against wide alignment in particular, the Bills allow the 7th most YPRR (2.08).  On the season, the Bills play the 3rd highest rate of two-high (57.2%).  In the first H2H matchup week 5, the Bills played two-high at a 66.7% rate. Boutte averages 1.80 YPRR and 11% TPRR against two-high. This should be a competitive divisional rivalry game (BUF -1.5) with a high implied total (49.5), expecting a shootout and weapons on both sides to benefit.

Suggested Pick:

Over 17.5 Yards Longest Reception (-112)

TE Hunter Henry

Henry is averaging 46.9 receiving yards per game, 1.76 YPRR, 19% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 19.3%. He mainly splits his time in the slot (43.1%) and inline (35.8%). He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 10th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 2nd fewest receiving yards per game (171.8). In the head-to-head matchup earlier this season, Henry caught 2 of 4 targets for 46 receiving yards. The Bills allow the 7th fewest YPRR to the slot (1.57) and the 9th fewest to inline (1.61).  On the season, the Bills play the 3rd highest rate of two-high (57.2%).  In the first H2H matchup week 5, the Bills played two-high at a 66.7% rate. Henry has negative splits against two-high, averaging 1.31 YPRR and 18% TPRR. This should be a competitive divisional rivalry game (BUF -1.5) with a high implied total (49.5), expecting a shootout and weapons on both sides to benefit.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (+230)

We have rarely faded the Patriots this year and to be honest they are the better team and will be playing @Home on a 10 game win streak. The Bills defense concerns me . Give me the Patriots ML and the over

Best Bet Patriots ML +100
Lean Over 49.5 -120
Score Prediction Bills 24 Patriots 27

Anytime TD Scorer

Stefon Diggs (Patriots) +150

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) +295

First TD Scorer

Stefon Diggs (Patriots) +1000

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) +1800

Parlay #1 (Bills) +435 @DraftKings

Josh Allen Over 228.5 Passing Yards
James Cook 80+ Rushing Yards
Dalton Kincaid Over 20.5 1H Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (Patriots) +405 @DraftKings

Stefon Diggs 5+ Receptions
Treveyon Henderson Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
Drake Maye Over 232.5 Passing Yards

Parlay #3 (Longshot) +3100 @DraftKings

Stefon Diggs 7+ Receptions
Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown
Dalton Kincaid Over 20.5 1H Receiving Yards
Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown

QB Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson finally broke out of his three-game slump last week, completing 19/35 passes for 219 yards (6.3 YPA), 1 TD, and 1 INT while adding 7/43/1 on the ground. Even with the bounce-back, Lamar’s passing production remains muted — just 2 passing TDs across his last five games — and his rushing output has dipped to a career-low 30.7 YPG, down more than 20 yards from his previous low as a full-time starter. That said, this matchup sets up far more favorably. Cincinnati plays Cover 3 or Cover 6 on over 50% of their defensive snaps, and Lamar is extremely efficient against these structures: 10.23 YPA, a massive +17.4% CPOE, and 80 rushing yards on just 92 dropbacks. The Bengals’ secondary has been leaking production at all levels, allowing the second-most passing yards per game (264.1) and third-most passing TDs per game (2.0). On Thanksgiving, Jackson posted 246 scoreless yards with 6/27 rushing against this same defense, but Baltimore stalled on four drives that reached scoring territory. With Cincinnati’s coverage predictability and their inability to defend explosive plays, Lamar has one of his better statistical spots of the season. 

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 1.5 Passing TDs (-145)

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry’s three-game touchdown streak ended last week, but he still handled 25/94 on the ground with an 8-yard catch, marking his eighth straight game with 71+ scrimmage yards. He has logged 18+ carries in seven of his last eight contests, and his workload should again be massive in this matchup. Cincinnati has been one of the worst run defenses in the league: 4th-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.50), most rushing yards allowed per game (126.4), and 5th-most rush attempts faced per game (24.4). Henry gashed this defense two weeks ago for 10/60/1 rushing and added a 44-yard reception, exploiting exactly the issues Cincinnati still hasn’t fixed — poor edge-setting, slow linebacker flow, and missed tackles at the second level. With Baltimore projected to control time of possession, Henry should again push 20+ touches with multiple scoring chances. 

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 18.5 Rush Attempts (-105)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers erupted for 8/124 on 11 targets last week, posting his highest yardage total since Week 1 and re-establishing himself as Baltimore’s WR1 in both volume and separation metrics. Flowers has cleared 64+ scrimmage yards in 10 of 12 games, but he remains stuck on one touchdown for the season despite commanding a 25–30% target share most weeks. Cincinnati deploys Cover 3 and Cover 6 at a 50.8% rate, and Flowers averages 2.42 yards per route run and a .25 target-per-route rate against these coverages — strong numbers considering his alignment outside and the volume of attention defenses give him. While the Bengals allow the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to outside WRs (88.6), they have been crushed by WR1s on intermediate crossers and outbreakers because of their inconsistent corner discipline. Flowers saw only 2/6 receiving in the first meeting two weeks ago, but Baltimore missed two deep shots to him and didn’t use motion as heavily — something that changed drastically in Week 13. This matchup is much better than the box score suggests. 

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 24.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

TE Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews delivered only 1 catch for 9 yards on 4 targets last week, a massive letdown given the matchup. Isaiah Likely again cut into his high-leverage snaps, turning 6 targets into 4/25/1 with a second TD overturned. Still, this is absolutely the matchup where Andrews is positioned to rebound. Cincinnati allows the most receiving yards per game to tight ends (96.8) and the most receptions per game (7.5) — by a wide margin. Their Cover 3/Cover 6 combinations leave tight ends isolated on leverage-losing linebackers, and Andrews is still one of the league’s best zone manipulators. Against these coverage shells, he averages 1.24 YPRR and .18 TPRR on 94 routes, while Likely sits at 1.89 YPRR on 62 routes — meaning both are heavily involved when Baltimore faces these looks. Andrews posted 4/47 against Cincinnati two weeks ago despite Baltimore throwing only 26 passes, and the Bengals have allowed at least 60 yards to the TE position in nine straight games. 

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 38.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

QB Joe Burrow

Burrow returned on Thanksgiving two weeks ago, throwing for 261 passing yards and 2 touchdowns against the Ravens. He averaged just 5.67 YPA and had a 52.2% completion rate. He showed some rust but improved as the game progressed. Last week, Burrow completed 25 of 36 pass attempts for 284 passing yards and 4 touchdowns against the Bills. This week, he’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 13th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th most passing yards per game (236). Burrow will likely be without one of his top weapons, Tee Higgins, who experienced concussion symptoms after the game last week. The Ravens have generated pressure at a bottom 9 rate this season (35.2%). Baltimore runs the 3rd highest rate of single-high (60.3%) and the 5th highest rate of man (36.2%). In the head-to-head on Thanksgiving day, the Ravens ran single-high at a 66.7% rate and man coverage at a 45.8% rate. In a larger sample size last season, Burrow averaged 7.67 YPA and a 68% completion rate against single-high, compared to 7.44 YPA and a 72.6% completion rate against two-high. Against man in 2024, Burrow averaged 6.87 YPA and a 61% completion rate, compared to 8.38 YPA and a 76.9% completion rate against zone. Burrow’s lines feel pretty sharp here, but I lean over on passing yards with a 51.5 implied total.

Suggested Pick:

Over 259.5 Passing Yards (-114)

RB Chase Brown

In the first 6 weeks of the season, Chase Brown averaged 33.7 rushing yards per game on 2.73 YPC. In the past 7, he’s averaging 75 rushing yards per game on 5.36 YPC. After having an 82%+ snap rate in 3 straight games without Perine, Brown has had a 58.8% and 66.1% snap rate in the past 2 with him back. Despite Perine back, Brown has still had a healthy route participation rate, at 52.1% and 48.6% the past 2 weeks. Brown rushed 15 times for 78 rushing yards and caught 7 of 7 targets for 35 receiving yards in this matchup on Thanksgiving. Perine did not play that game, so we should see slightly reduced volume this time around. The Ravens rank 12th best in EPA/Rush and have allowed the 15th fewest rushing yards per game (111.9). The Ravens have sizable splits against man/gap compared to zone concept. They allow the 2nd most YPC (5.17) against man/gap, compared to the least YPC against zone concept (3.22). Brown has around a 50-50 split between the 2 concepts, averaging 4.13 YPC in man/gap compared to 4.20 YPC in zone concept. However, his success rate is better in man/gap (52.3%), compared to (45.7%) in zone concept. Turning to the receiving matchup, the Ravens allow the 5th most receiving yards and 6th most receptions to RB. Brown has caught 16 of 18 targets for 88 receiving yards in his last 2 head-to-head against the Ravens. Despite the reduced route rate with Perine back, I like Brown receiving overs.

Suggested Pick:

Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

WR Ja’Marr Chase

Chase caught 7 of 14 targets for 110 receiving yards in the first game with Burrow back on Thanksgiving night against this Ravens defense. In his 2nd game with Burrow last week against the Bills, he was held in check, catching 5 of 8 targets for 44 receiving yards. In Chase’s last 7 games, he’s averaging 91.6 receiving yards per game, 2.17 YPRR and he’s been targeted on 31% of his routes. He leads the team in 1st-read rate during this time at an insane 41% rate. He’ll face a Ravens defense that he’s averaging 9.3 receptions and 189 receiving yards against in his last 3 head-to-head. This Ravens defense ranks 13th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th most passing yards per game (236). As was the case on Thanksgiving day, Tee Higgins is likely to be ruled out with a concussion this week. Baltimore runs the 3rd highest rate of single-high (60.3%) and the 5th highest rate of man (36.2%). In the head-to-head on Thanksgiving day, the Ravens ran single-high at a 66.7% rate and man coverage at a 45.8% rate. In the same sample size used earlier, Chase is averaging 2.54 YPRR and 41% TPRR against single-high. He’s averaging 1.85 YPRR and 30% TPRR against man. Hard to bet against Chase in this spot.

Suggested Pick:

Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

TE Mike Gesicki

In the 3 games since his return from injury, Gesicki has run a route on 64.1%, 39.6% and 45.9% of dropbacks. The Bengals continue to be a TE carousel. Gesicki did have his biggest game of the season last week. He caught 6 of 6 targets for 86 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Bills. Gesicki caught 2 of 4 targets for 19 yards in the head-to-head matchup against the Ravens 2 weeks back. The Ravens are allowing the 12th fewest receiving yards, 10th fewest receptions and 3rd fewest receiving touchdowns to TEs this season. The low volume and rotation of him, Noah Fant, Drew Sample and Tanner Hudson makes me continue to pass on Gesicki each week. 

Suggested Pick:

Pass

Best Bet 
Lean 
Score Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet: (Ravens) Derrick Henry First TD +360

Derrick Henry enters this matchup with one of the league’s strongest early-drive usage profiles, making him a premium candidate for first touchdown scorer. Henry has handled 18+ carries in seven of his last eight games, and Baltimore frequently scripts their opening possessions through him to establish tempo and physicality. Cincinnati’s run defense is an ideal target: they allow the most rushing yards per game (126.4), the fourth-most yards before contact per attempt (2.50 YBC/ATT), and the fifth-most rush attempts faced per game (24.4). These metrics are exactly the type Henry has historically punished. In the first meeting two weeks ago, Henry ripped off 10/60/1 on the ground and added a 44-yard reception — with his touchdown coming on Baltimore’s first red-zone sequence. The Bengals’ defensive front struggles with backside pursuit and fill timing, creating wide cutback lanes early in games before adjustments settle in. Baltimore also prefers to keep Lamar’s designed runs reserved for later quarters, meaning Henry is overwhelmingly likely to be the focal point on the first goal-to-go possession. Given the matchup and usage alignment, Henry has one of the cleanest first-touchdown profiles of any RB on the slate this week.

Longshot: 

First TD Scorer

Best Bet: (Ravens) Mark Andrews Anytime TD +145

Mark Andrews draws one of his best touchdown matchups of the season against a Cincinnati defense that is absolutely bleeding production to tight ends. The Bengals allow the most TE receiving yards per game (96.8), the most TE receptions per game (7.5), and have surrendered multiple red-zone TE scores within the last month alone. Their Cover 3/Cover 6 combinations leave linebackers isolated in space, and Andrews has repeatedly exploited these exact vulnerabilities throughout his career. His efficiency remains strong despite last week’s dud — 1.24 YPRR and a .18 target-per-route rate against these coverage shells — and his end-zone role has not changed. Andrews’ routes inside the 20 remain among the highest on the team, and Baltimore frequently isolates him on seam fades or pivot routes against linebackers who lack his change-of-direction ability. He posted 4/47 against Cincinnati two weeks ago in a low-volume passing game, and with the Bengals giving up 2.0 passing touchdowns per game (3rd-most in the league), Andrews is positioned to benefit from expected positive regression in the Ravens’ passing TD totals. His scoring role is further strengthened by the attention Zay Flowers now commands at all three levels, freeing Andrews on high-leverage play-action.

Longshot:

Parlay #1 (Ravens) +320 on Fliff

Derrick Henry ‘O’ 18.5 Rush Attempts

Derrick Henry ATD

Zay Flowers ‘O’ 24.5 Yard Longest Reception

QB Brady Cook

Brady Cook took over for Tyrod Taylor after 1 drive last week. He completed 14 of 30 attempts for 163 passing yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions against the Dolphins. Fields and Taylor have been ruled out for this week. Cook will make his first career start against the Jags, who rank 2nd best in EPA/Pass allowed but have allowed the 11th most passing yards per game. Cook also does not offer any rushing upside like Taylor or Fields did. The Jags have been a pass funnel, forcing the 2nd highest pass rate over expected (6.2%). However, the Jets have been run heavy all season, with the 2nd lowest pass rate over expected out of all the offenses in the NFL. They had a -3.7% pass rate over expected last week with Cook playing all but 1 drive. The Jets are 13.5-point underdogs and projected to score just 14 points. Books aren’t projecting much success here and for good reason.

Suggested Pick:

Under 156.5 Passing Yards (-114)

RB Breece Hall

Breece Hall returned to practice on Thursday in a limited capacity Thursday after being held out Wednesday with a knee injury. He’s listed as questionable, but looks like he’s expected to give it a go. Hall is averaging 67.5 rushing yards per game on 4.36 YPC. He has a respectable 7.5% explosive run rate. He’ll face a Jags defense that ranks 8th best in EPA/Rush and has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (82.9). Breece is primarily a zone concept runner, accounting for 69.7% of his attempts. He averages 4.59 YPC in this concept, compared to 3.91 YPC in man/gap. The Jags allow the 8th fewest YPC (3.90) and the 13th highest success rate (49.2%) against zone concept. That compares to the 2nd fewest YPC (3.41) and the 15th lowest success rate (50.5%) against man/gap. The Jags also force the 2nd highest pass rate over expected (6.2%), however the Jets have been extremely run heavy, with the 2nd lowest pass rate over expected on the season and now with a 3rd string QB. Expect the Jags to stack the box and prevent Hall from finding any running lanes. From a receiving matchup, the Jags allow the 13th most receiving yards per game to RB. Breece has just 3 targets in the past 2 weeks, including just 1 with the QB he will be playing with this week. Hard to have any faith here.

Suggested Pick:

Lean Unders (no lines open)

WR Adonai Mitchell

Mitchell broke out in week 13, catching 8 of 12 targets for 102 receiving yards and his first career touchdown. In week 12, he caught 2 of 7 targets for 42 yards against the Ravens. Mitchell was unable to continue his momentum last week against the Dolphins with Brady Cook at the helm for the entire game (besides the first drive). He caught 1 of 6 targets for 24 yards. Mitchell’s 15.8% target route last week was his lowest since he joined the Jets. The Jets can activate Garrett Wilson this week, but it’s highly unlikely they would risk reinjury in a lost season. The Jags rank 2nd best in EPA/Pass allowed but have allowed the 11th most passing yards per game. The Jags run zone coverage at the 6th highest rate (78.3%). Mitchell is averaging 1.71 YPRR and 23% TPRR against zone coverage as a member of the Jets. That compares to 1.20 YPRR and 37% TPRR in a small 30 route sample against man. The only positive here is the Jets are 13.5-point underdogs and the Jags force the 2nd highest pass rate over expected. Still, it's hard to have faith in him with Brady Cook at QB.

Suggested Pick:

Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

TE Jeremy Ruckert

Rookie TE Mason Taylor was the one weapon to have success with Brady Cook last week. He caught 5 of 8 targets for 51 yards. The first time he surpassed 50 receiving yards in 8 weeks. Unfortunately for Taylor, he has been ruled out this week against the Jags. Ruckert will likely take his spot but does not currently have any lines up. Ruckert is averaging 1.30 YPRR and 18% TPRR on a 24.6% route participation rate. That’ll certainly increase this week with Taylor out. Ruckert caught 2 of 3 targets for 19 yards with Brady Cook last week against the Dolphins. TEs are usually first time starting QBs best friend, so if there’s one Jet I’m betting on this week, Ruckert would be the guy. The Jags have also been susceptible to TEs, allowing the 5th most receiving yards and 4th most receptions to TEs on the season. Depending on what his lines are when they open, I have some interest in Ruckert props.

Suggested Pick:

Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Trevor Lawrence
Trevor is coming off a nice week going 17 of 30 for 244 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He didn’t throw an interception and added 4 carries for 16 yards. This season he’s 253 of 425 (59.5% completion rate) for 2,880 yards, 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He owns an 83.3 passer rating thanks in part to a 9.4% drop rate, which leads all qualified quarterbacks this season. He’s averaging 221.5 passing yards per game, 6.78 yards per attempt and an 8.9 aDOT. He’s thrown for at least 8.0 yards per pass attempt in three games straight with multiple passing touchdowns in all three. Since NYJ is a poor team, they have only faced the 5th fewest passing attempts per game. NYJ plays a lot of man coverage, which Lawrence is significantly better against. This season, Lawrence ranks 5th in pass grading against man coverage. NYJ plays man coverage at the 5th highest rate. The Jets have not forced an interception this season. With a positive game script and already run-heavy approach by JAC I’ll take him not to throw a pick. 

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions (-125)

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
Etienne was once again leaned on as the bellcow in this backfield. Last week he compiled 20 carries for 74 yards and two touchdowns. He also chipped in a catch for 8 yards. Travis had 84% of the backfield touches. He’s had himself a really nice season with 201 carries for 917 yards and 7 touchdowns. He holds a 48.3% success rate, 4.0 explosive run rate and 4.56 yards per carry. He’s averaging 70.5 rushing yards per game. Game flow should get Etienne plenty of work again. In the past four games, NYJ has allowed the 5th most rushing attempts per game and 9th highest yards per carry (4.6). On the season they are allowing the 4th most rushing yards (112.4) and 2nd most TD’s (1.15) per game to opposing running backs. Etienne ranks 7th among running backs with 21 carries inside the 10-yard line, which sets up nicely for a score or two. This is another good spot to back Etienne.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Anytime Touchdown (-175)

WR Jakobi Meyers
Meyers remains heavily involved, even with the return of BTJ. He finished the romp of the Colts with 4 catches for 39 and a score. He’s now scored in three straight games. Over the past four games, Meyers’ has seen target shares of 27%, 20%, 24% and 32% with a team-high 30% first-read rate. On the season between LV and JAC Meyers has 55 catches on 77 targets (71.4% catch rate) for 636 yards and three touchdowns - all three with JAC. JAC has been using Meyers more of the outside, especially when Washington is healthy. The Jets don’t present as a great matchup in terms of compiling stats for wideouts, but that is likely in part due to game flow. Teams just don’t have to throw a ton of them. I think that will be the case here too. JAC loves to run and I think they can cruise to victory without pushing the envelope. I’ll take the under on receptions.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions (+100)

WR Brian Thomas Jr.
It’s nice to see some late season life from BTJ after a significantly disappointing first half of the season. He finished last week with 3 catches on 6 targets for 87 yards. He’s fully ramped up after running routes on 84% and 94% of dropbacks the last two weeks. On the season, BTJ has 35 receptions on 68 targets (51.5% catch rate) with a single touchdown. Despite almost a 20% target share, he also has a 8.8% drop rate. He’s played more like his old self the last two weeks and he can still be a potent downfield threat for Jacksonville. BTJ has been a lot better against man coverage between this season and last. It still comes down to how much the Jags will throw. I’ll take his longest reception.

Suggested Picks
Longest Reception over 20.5 Yards (-115)

TE Brenton Strange
Strange had a pretty quiet day last week against the Colts with 3 catches for 27 yards, but on 6 targets. On the season Strange has 31 catches on 39 targets (79.5% catch rate) for 369 yards and a touchdown. They move him around the field, mostly playing inline (46.1%) and out of the slot (37.8%). He is averaging 11.9 yards per reception, 5.5 yards after the catch per reception and a 7.5 aDOT, which is high for a tight end. NYJ is a middling matchup, as they rank 19th in targets (7.38), 21st in receptions (4.92) and 22nd in receiving yards (46.6) per game to opposing tight ends. I like Strange and he continues to pass the eye test, but there is too much uncertainty to make a play.

Suggested Picks
PASS

The Jaguars will dominate this game from start to finish! Give me the Jags in a snoozefest

Best Bet Jags -12.5 -130
Lean Jags -12.5 -130
Score Prediction Jets 17 Jaguars 30

Anytime TD Scorer

Jeremy Ruckert (Jets) +600

Jakobi Meyers (Jaguars) +170
Meyers has a touchdown in each of his last 3 games and has operated as the primary possesion wide receiver. Lawrence has shown great chemistry with Meyers and over the last 3 weeks Meyers has 6 redzone targets. With defenses once again having to worry about BTJ over the top, Meyers makes for a great short to middle yardage option.

First TD Scorer

Jeremy Ruckert (Jets) +4000

Travis Etienne (Jaguars) +325
Game flow should get Etienne plenty of work again. In the past four games, NYJ has allowed the 5th most rushing attempts per game and 9th highest yards per carry (4.6). On the season they are allowing the 4th most rushing yards (112.4) and 2nd most TD’s (1.15) per game to opposing running backs. Etienne ranks 7th among running backs with 21 carries inside the 10-yard line, which sets up nicely for a score or two.

Parlay #1 (Jets) +2325

Jeremy Ruckert Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Jeremey Ruckert Anytime Touchdown
Brady Cook Under 155.5 Passing Yards

Parlay #2 (Jaguars) +506
Travis Etienne 2+ Touchdowns
Travis Etienne 70+ Rushing Yards
Trevor Lawrence Most Passing Yards

QB Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert returned from hand surgery and guided the Chargers to an overtime win despite limited passing efficiency, completing 12/26 passes for 139 yards (5.3 YPA), 1 TD, and 1 INT while adding a season-high 10/66 rushing. He has failed to top 26 attempts or 151 yards in three straight games, and he’s produced multiple passing TDs just once in his last four. Kansas City deploys the second-highest rate of two-high safety shells (57.9%), and Herbert historically handles those structures well, averaging 7.04 YPA, +8.4% CPOE, and 205 rushing yards with 1 TD on 241 dropbacks against them—largely because he can exploit light boxes when KC spreads the field post-snap. The Chiefs rank top-10 in both fewest passing YPG allowed (212.5) and fewest passing TDs allowed (1.1 per game), and they recently held C.J. Stroud to 203/1 passing in this matchup. Herbert dropped 318/3 passing and 7/32 rushing on Kansas City in Week 1, but the current version of the Chargers offense has shifted toward a slower, run-heavy approach behind a damaged receiving corps.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 1.5 Passing TDs (+160)

RB Omarion Hampton

Omarion Hampton returned from a seven-week ankle absence and immediately entered a split committee with Kimani Vidal. Hampton delivered 13/56 rushing with 2/11/1 receiving, while Vidal led the backfield in snap share (69%), carry share (37%), and route share (56%)—but Hampton still operated as the primary early-down hammer. KC ranks top-6 in limiting overall RB yardage, allowing the sixth-fewest rushing YPG (76.0) and 11th-fewest receiving YPG (28.4), but they’re middle-of-the-pack in yards before contact (2.14 adjusted YBC/ATT), meaning patient runners can still find creases. Hampton handled 15/48 rushing and 2/13 receiving in his debut against the Chiefs in Week 1 and should again see the highest-value carries even in a close split.

Suggested Play:

 ‘O’ 49.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey managed only a 12-yard reception on five targets (19%) despite running a 93% route share vs the Eagles. His role remains stable, but his production cratered over the last three weeks (8/65/1 combined). KC’s heavy two-high usage compresses targets underneath, and McConkey averages 1.26 YPRR anWRd .21 TPRR on 214 routes against these coverages. The Chiefs allow the fifth-fewest slot receiving yards per game (54.0) and the fifth-fewest slot YPRR (1.49)—a stylistic challenge for a player who wins most frequently in the short-to-intermediate middle. Still, McConkey posted 6/74 receiving in Week 1, largely off play-action crossers, which could reappear if LA uses tempo to manipulate Kansas City’s safeties.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-150)

WR Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston produced just 2/8 receiving on three targets (12%) despite a 90% route share. After surpassing 71 yards in each of his first four games, he has failed to top 53 yards in eight straight contests. KC’s two-high structures suppress downfield WRs, and Johnston averages just 0.90 YPRR and .13 TPRR on 195 routes against the shell. However, the Chiefs do allow the ninth-most YPR (13.73) to perimeter WRs, meaning big plays—not volume—are the path to beating them outside the numbers. Johnston torched KC for 5/79/2 in Week 1 by exploiting isolated vertical matchups, but he hasn’t shown consistent separation since midseason.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 16.5 Yard Longest Reception (-125)

TE Oronde Gadsden

Oronde Gadsden mustered just a seven-yard catch on four targets (15%), running a 71% route share in the win over Philadelphia. His production sharply declined (7/88 total over four games) after a strong midseason stretch, and Kansas City represents another challenging matchup. Against two-high shells, he averages 1.93 YPRR and .16 TPRR on 88 routes. The Chiefs allow the 10th-fewest TE receiving yards (46.4 per game) and the eighth-fewest TE catches (4.7), and they’ve held opposing tight ends to fewer than 35 yards in four straight games—including Dalton Schultz (3/22). The middle of the field tightens significantly against KC due to their split-safety leverage, forcing tight ends into contested windows at a high rate.

Suggested Play:

‘U’ 33.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

QB Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes is coming off his ugliest performance of the year, finishing 14/33 for 160 yards (4.8 YPA) with 3 INTs and no passing scores against Houston. Even in the down game, he still produced 7/59 rushing, marking his ninth game with 28+ rushing yards this season and his third straight hitting that mark. Los Angeles plays Cover 3 (34.1%) and Cover 4 (24.6%) on 58.7% of snaps, and Mahomes has historically carved up those structures: 8.15 YPA, +5.3% CPOE, and 28/223 rushing across 246 dropbacks. The Chargers allow the third-fewest passing yards per game (188.8) and the fewest passing TDs (.9), which typically forces Mahomes into more scrambling and off-script plays. He posted 258 passing yards, 1 TD, and 6/57 rushing against LAC in Week 1.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 11.5 Longest Rush (-135)

RB Kareem Hunt

Hunt once again led the Chiefs’ backfield even with Pacheco back, finishing 12/30/1 on the ground and dropping what should’ve been a second touchdown. He led Pacheco in all key usage areas: snap share (58%>36%), carry share (41%>31%), and route share (48%>24%). He has scored in five of his last six games, and KC trusts him more than Pacheco in short yardage. The Chargers allow the sixth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.45) and have been vulnerable between the tackles all year despite solid raw yardage numbers. Hunt posted 5/16 rushing and 2/10 receiving in Week 1, but his role is significantly stronger now.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 10.5 Rush Attempts (+100)

WR Rashee Rice

Rice finished with 4/34 on 7 targets (21%) and a 74% route share in the loss to Houston. Even with the dip in yardage, he’s still averaging 7+ targets in every game and remains Mahomes’ primary option. Against Cover 3 and Cover 4 (combined 58.7% from LAC), Rice carries strong efficiency — 2.60 YPRR and .29 TPRR on 91 routes. The Chargers give up the sixth-fewest receiving yards to slot WRs (55.2) and are top-15 against slot efficiency metrics, but they do allow consistent short-area volume. DeVonta Smith only managed 4/37 last week, but was targeted heavily underneath. Rice’s usage and coverage alignment suggest another high-volume short/intermediate game rather than a deep explosive outing.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (+105)

WR Xavier Worthy

Worthy posted 3/55 on 4 targets and a 71% route share last week. He’s reached 3+ catches in nine of ten full games, though his ceiling has been limited since Rice returned. Against Cover 3/Cover 4 looks — which limit volume but not isolated deep shots — Worthy owns 1.82 YPRR and .24 TPRR on 141 routes. The Chargers allow the fourth-fewest receiving yards to outside WRs (83.3) and the second-fewest YPRR (1.55), but they also allow occasional perimeter explosives when the backside safety rotates late. With LA’s high zone rate (79.5%) they force short completions but still concede chunk plays to speed receivers when the QB extends.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 17.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

TE Travis Kelce

Kelce is coming off his least productive game of the season — just one 8-yard catch on 5 targets with a 71% route share. Even with the recent dip, he’s still cleared 43+ yards in 11 of 13 games and continues to command schemed looks against zone-heavy defenses. The Chargers play Cover 3/Cover 4 at the fourth-highest combined rate in the league, and Kelce has long been a zone-beater with 2.01 YPRR and .20 TPRR across 164 routes against these exact shells. LA allows the sixth-fewest yards to TEs (43.4) and the sixth-fewest receptions (4.2), but they remain vulnerable inside the 10-yard line where linebackers struggle to match leverage. Kelce produced 2/47/1 against them in Week 1.

Suggested Play: 

Anytime TD (+175)

The Chiefs don't drop 3 straight games do they! I think the key to this game is the Chiefs D-Line because they looked locked in last week and I expect them to run right through this Chargers front. Give me the Chiefs in a low scoring battle

Best Bet Chiefs -5.5 -125
Lean Chargers TT 'U' 17.5 -120
Score Prediction Chargers 14 Chiefs 23

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet: (Chargers) Omarion Hampton Anytime TD +130

Hampton returned from injury and immediately reclaimed the Chargers’ most valuable rushing role, handling the early-down and goal-line carries even while operating in a split with Kimani Vidal. He posted 13 carries and 2 targets in his first game back, and despite Vidal’s larger snap share, Hampton still handled the highest-leverage rushing attempts, including multiple red-zone touches. Kansas City’s heavy two-high deployment (57.9%) naturally lightens boxes and encourages opponents to run inside the 10-yard line, where Hampton’s downhill style fits perfectly. The Chiefs allow 2.14 adjusted yards before contact per rush, making them more vulnerable near the goal line than their total yardage metrics suggest. With Herbert still operating at reduced volume post-hand surgery, the Chargers lean heavily on early-down rushing and red-zone sequencing to avoid turnovers. That shift consolidates TD equity toward Hampton, who already found the end zone through the air last week and recorded 15 carries in his prior matchup with Kansas City earlier this season. His combination of role, scheme fit, and KC’s red-zone run vulnerability makes Hampton the most likely Charger ball carrier to convert a touchdown.

QB Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes is coming off his ugliest performance of the year, finishing 14/33 for 160 yards (4.8 YPA) with 3 INTs and no passing scores against Houston. Even in the down game, he still produced 7/59 rushing, marking his ninth game with 28+ rushing yards this season and his third straight hitting that mark. Los Angeles plays Cover 3 (34.1%) and Cover 4 (24.6%) on 58.7% of snaps, and Mahomes has historically carved up those structures: 8.15 YPA, +5.3% CPOE, and 28/223 rushing across 246 dropbacks. The Chargers allow the third-fewest passing yards per game (188.8) and the fewest passing TDs (.9), which typically forces Mahomes into more scrambling and off-script plays. He posted 258 passing yards, 1 TD, and 6/57 rushing against LAC in Week 1.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 11.5 Longest Rush (-135)

RB Kareem Hunt

Hunt once again led the Chiefs’ backfield even with Pacheco back, finishing 12/30/1 on the ground and dropping what should’ve been a second touchdown. He led Pacheco in all key usage areas: snap share (58%>36%), carry share (41%>31%), and route share (48%>24%). He has scored in five of his last six games, and KC trusts him more than Pacheco in short yardage. The Chargers allow the sixth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.45) and have been vulnerable between the tackles all year despite solid raw yardage numbers. Hunt posted 5/16 rushing and 2/10 receiving in Week 1, but his role is significantly stronger now.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 10.5 Rush Attempts (+100)

WR Rashee Rice

Rice finished with 4/34 on 7 targets (21%) and a 74% route share in the loss to Houston. Even with the dip in yardage, he’s still averaging 7+ targets in every game and remains Mahomes’ primary option. Against Cover 3 and Cover 4 (combined 58.7% from LAC), Rice carries strong efficiency — 2.60 YPRR and .29 TPRR on 91 routes. The Chargers give up the sixth-fewest receiving yards to slot WRs (55.2) and are top-15 against slot efficiency metrics, but they do allow consistent short-area volume. DeVonta Smith only managed 4/37 last week, but was targeted heavily underneath. Rice’s usage and coverage alignment suggest another high-volume short/intermediate game rather than a deep explosive outing.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (+105)

WR Xavier Worthy

Worthy posted 3/55 on 4 targets and a 71% route share last week. He’s reached 3+ catches in nine of ten full games, though his ceiling has been limited since Rice returned. Against Cover 3/Cover 4 looks — which limit volume but not isolated deep shots — Worthy owns 1.82 YPRR and .24 TPRR on 141 routes. The Chargers allow the fourth-fewest receiving yards to outside WRs (83.3) and the second-fewest YPRR (1.55), but they also allow occasional perimeter explosives when the backside safety rotates late. With LA’s high zone rate (79.5%) they force short completions but still concede chunk plays to speed receivers when the QB extends.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 17.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

Best Bet: (Chiefs)  Travis Kelce Anytime TD +175

Kelce is coming off his least productive game of the season — just one 8-yard catch on 5 targets with a 71% route share. Even with the recent dip, he’s still cleared 43+ yards in 11 of 13 games and continues to command schemed looks against zone-heavy defenses. The Chargers play Cover 3/Cover 4 at the fourth-highest combined rate in the league, and Kelce has long been a zone-beater with 2.01 YPRR and .20 TPRR across 164 routes against these exact shells. LA allows the sixth-fewest yards to TEs (43.4) and the sixth-fewest receptions (4.2), but they remain vulnerable inside the 10-yard line where linebackers struggle to match leverage. Kelce produced 2/47/1 against them in Week 1.

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Chargers) Ladd McConkey First TD +1175

McConkey remains the Chargers’ most timing-based route runner and is Herbert’s primary early-scripted read when defenses sit in two-high shells, which Kansas City shows at the second-highest rate in the NFL (57.9%). The Chiefs’ split-safety looks funnel short and intermediate throws, especially early in games before coordinators adjust, and McConkey’s quick-break option routes are specifically designed to attack these structures. He posted 6/74 receiving in Week 1 against this same defensive look, and with Keenan Allen’s production collapsing over the last six weeks, McConkey has stepped into the role of Herbert’s most reliable separator. Kansas City tends to force opponents into compressed-field pass attempts inside the red zone due to strong DT penetration, which lowers RB first-TD probability and instead favors slot timing routes, where McConkey wins most consistently. His 93% route share last week and consistent inclusion in early drive scripts give him the strongest profile for scoring the Chargers’ first touchdown — either on a red-zone glance route or a designed play-action flood concept.

Longshot: (Chiefs) Patrick Mahomes First TD +2130

Inside the 10, Los Angeles has struggled with mobile quarterbacks because their linebackers play soft zone landmarks rather than spying the QB. Mahomes already posted 6/57 rushing against the Chargers in Week 1, including two scrambles inside the red zone where he passed up checkdowns to run. With Kansas City’s WRs struggling to separate in tight spaces and Kelce drawing double-teams inside the 5, designed bootlegs and extended plays become a larger part of KC’s red-zone menu. This matchup creates the exact scenario where Mahomes finishes the first scoring drive himself — not by design necessarily, but by necessity when the coverage expands and the lanes open.

Parlay #1 (Chargers) +595

Omarion Hampton ATD
Ladd McConkey ‘O’ 3.5 Receptions

Gadsden II ‘U’ 33.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (Chiefs) +550

Patrick Mahomes ‘O’ 21.5 Rush Yards

Travis Kelce ATD
Rashee Rice ‘O’ 6.5 Receptions

QB Jacoby Brissett

Jacoby Brissett has put up some big numbers since taking over at QB for Arizona. He's a far better option than Kyler Murray, but Brissett's production has been manipulated due to being the beneficiary of garbage time. The reality is the Cardinals are still a below-average offense, and they're going to get exposed this Sunday. There is plenty of evidence to back up this claim about Arizona. They rank 15th in EPA per pass (0.01) and are tied for 25th in net yards per pass attempt (5.6). Last week, Brissett completed just 56.8% of his passes for 6.2 YPA against the Rams. The Cardinals also took a major blow with the loss of starting LT Paris Johnson Jr, who ranks 15th in pass-blocking grade. This Sunday, Brissett will face a Texans pass defense that ranks 1st in EPA allowed per pass (-0.21) and 1st in net yards allowed per pass (5.0). Houston can be susceptible to the run, but not against an Arizona team who is currently bludgeoned with injuries at the position. Rather, they will have to rely on Jacoby Brissett, who will also be without Marvin Harrison Jr. to go up against the NFL's best pass defense. This is about the worst spot Brissett could find himself in for week 15. The Texans pass rush can wreck any offensive line, and this is especially a concern for the Cardinals who are down Will Hernandez, Jonah Williams and the aforementioned Paris Johnson. Brissett has thrown at least 1+ interceptions in 3 of his L4 games, and Houston's pass defense has recorded the 3rd most INTs (14) in the league this season. The Texans have forced 5 INTs in their L3 games (Patrick Mahomes 3, Josh Allen 2), and in 5 home games, every QB they have faced with the exception of Baker Mayfield has thrown at least 1+ interception. Arizona is on life support at RB and Jacoby Brissett is going to have to throw the ball at least 35+ times, and with this game being played on the road in a raucous environment, he's not going to escape the indoors of Reliant Stadium without throwing a pick. 

Suggested Bet:

Jacoby Brissett 1+ Interceptions (-177)

Jacoby Brissett 2+ ALT Interceptions (+203)

RB Bam Knight

As I touched on briefly with Jacoby Brissett, the Arizona running game is currently decimated with injuries. Trey Benson tore his meniscus earlier in the season, and at one point there were hopes of him returning to the field, but that has evaporated after he suffered a recent setback. The Cardinals now find themselves desperate for the return of Emari Demercado, a circumstance they never thought was possible at the start of the season. He is dealing with a high ankle sprain, and many are doubting that he will be available. If by some miracle he does play, it's highly unlikely that we see Demercado pose any sort of threat if what we can only assume would be a very limited role. That takes us back to Bam Knight, who has out touched fellow RB Michael Carter 38 to 23 (and 28-13 on the ground) over the past 3 weeks. To be honest, the running back position is pretty much a wash coming into this game anyway. Arizona has the 7th lowest EPA  per rush (-0.08) and averages the 15th lowest YPR (4.3) in '25. Knight will go up against a Texans defense that is giving up the 5th fewest rush YPG (73.8) to opposing running backs on just 3.8 YPC (5th fewest). There isn't any value in the pass-catching game either. Simply put, the Cardinals have not been effective on the ground all season, and this is now the fourth straight week that we've had to suffer through watching Arizona's 4th and 5th string RBs on the the depth chart. Do yourself a solid and pass on Bam Knight this Sunday afternoon in Houston.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

WR Michael Wilson

Marvin Harrison Jr. has been ruled out for week 15, leaving Michael Wilson to front the load at WR for the Cardinals. This is a matchup that finds Wilson going up against the league's top ranked pass defense in Houston. In a normal week, this is a spot we would fade or just outright avoid, but we simply cannot ignore what Michael Wilson here. His level of production in three weeks without Marvin Harrison Jr. on the field is nothing short of astonishing. During this stretch, Wilson has recorded games of 15-185-0 (18 targets), 10-118-0 (15 targets) and 11-142-2 (16 targets). Moreover, the Arizona wide receiver has seen target shares of 32.0%, 32.5% and 36.5%. There is just too much volume here to not back Michael Wilson in a game with a negative game script where Jacoby Brissett is going to be throwing the ball at least 35+ times. Over the past month, Wilson has 39 receptions for 481 yards and 2 TD. I will continue backing him with MHJ sidelined until he gives me a reason not to. 

Suggested Bet:

Michael Wilson 2-Pick Parlay (-150)

5+ Receptions

50+ Receiving Yards

WR Xavier Weaver/Andre Baccellia

In the past three games with Marvin Harrison Jr. unable to go, we've been able to rely on Greg Dortch for some production, and even Zay Jones in certain spots, but both Dortch (chest) and Jones (achilles) were recently placed on injured reserve. Beyond Wilson, we are now left with a hodgepodge of Cardinal receivers, none of whom have given us any reason whatsoever to think we can trust them to take a flyer on, especially against the National Football League's best pass defense. Xavier Weaver has caught 3 of 8 targets for 24 yards in seven games this season, while Andre Baccellia has 2 receptions for 8 yards on 4 targets in four games. We've officially reached the bottom of the barrel in the receiver department in Arizona. Don't waste your time here.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

TE Trey McBride

Few offensive players have benefited more from a midseason quarterback change than Trey McBride of Arizona. For the sake of repeating his numbers once again, all you have to do is check his recent game log to see how dominant he has been. That said, he finally looked human last week, catching 5 of 9 targets for 58 yards. It was just the second time in eight Jacoby Brissett starts where McBride did not find the end zone for a touchdown. On a historical note, last week marked the 15th straight game that Trey McBride has recorded at least 5 or more receptions. The Arizona TE now finds himself one game away from tying Travis Kelce who achieved this in the 2018 season. If he is able to pull off another week of 5+ catches, he will have earned it. McBride will have to line up against a Houston pass defense that allows the 4th fewest receiving YPG (38.1) and 5th fewest receptions per game (4.1) to opposing tight ends. I think Brissett will find a way to get McBride the 5 catches he needs on Sunday to tie Travis Kelce and keep his streak going. You can get his ALT 5+ receptions over at Draft Kings for -279 and use it as a nice parlay piece to add on elsewhere. Outside of that, as productive as McBride has been, I just have enough confidence in him to cover his receiving yards line given how difficult Houstond's defense is to move the ball down the field on. The Texans have already locked down George Kittle (4-43-1), Tyler Warren (3-22-1), Travis Kelce (1-8-0) and Brenton Strange (6-61-0) at the TE position this season. McBride was held to just 58 yards last week against the LA Rams, and he'll be facing a far superior Houston defense on the road this Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Trey McBride u65.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Trey McBride 5+ Receptions (-279) > Parlay Piece

QB C.J. Stroud
HOU walked away last week with a scrappy win against Mahomes and the Chiefs. Stroud was solid, going 15 of 31 for 203 yards and a passing touchdown. He did not throw an interception and was sacked three times for 17 yards. He added a pair of carries for 5 yards. On the season, Stroud has gone 198 of 308 (64.3% completion rate) for 2,181 passing yards, 12 touchdowns 6 interceptions and a passer rating of 90 on the nose. He’s averaging 7.08 yards per attempt, a 68.5% first-read rate and a 2.3% drop rate. He has a high 40.2% pressure rate, which has resulted in a 3.2% turnover-worthy throw rate and 6.3% sack rate. This matchup presents as a good one for Stroud. Over the last five weeks, Arizona has allowed the highest yards per pass attempt (8.7), the third highest completion rate (68.5%) and the highest touchdown rate (8.8%) in the league. This is evident as HOU has their highest implied total yet this season. ARI plays a ton of two-high to help limit big plays. The best way to attack that is with the shorter passing game. I really like his passing completions here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 20.5 Passing Completions (-110)

RB Woody Marks
Marks is coming off a full workload against Kansas City, carrying the ball 26 times for 68 yards and catching a couple passes (3 targets) for 8 yards and a touchdown. This season Marks has 160 carries for 554 yards with a pair of touchdowns. He’s averaging 3.46 yards per carry, which is not impressive, and 42.6 rushing yards per game. He holds a decent 3.8% explosive run rate, 52.5% success rate and 1.51 yards after contact per carry. Arizona is allowing the 12th most rushing attempts (22.5), 7th most rushing yards (107.9) and 3rd most rushing touchdowns (1.08) per game. They’ve been even worse over the past five weeks, allowing the 3rd highest yards per carry (5.4) with the 5th highest success rate (53.4%). Not to mention allowing the 12nd highest rushing yards per game (142) and 10 touchdowns to running backs! He might not have any competition for carries this week, as Chubb suffered a rib injury that could keep him out. All signs point to a big game for Marks and I’ll back him with confidence here.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 88.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
Anytime Touchdown (-130)
2+ Touchdowns (+450)

WR Nico Collins
Nico came through for HOU in the big win with 4 catches for 121 yards on 8 targets. His good season continues, compiling 61 receptions on 101 targets (60.4% catch rate) with four touchdowns and 10 redzone targets. He’s averaging 76.3 receiving yards per game, a 24.1% target share and has a 28.7% first-read rate. Nico has a 99.3 passer rating when targeted and is averaging 15.02 yards per reception and 9.07 yards per target. Since he returned from his concussion in week 9, he’s ranked wide receiver 11 in both target share and air yards. Over the last five weeks, ARI has allowed 15.2 yards per catch to wideouts (4th highest in the league over that span) and a touchdown per game. We’ve seen great games from the team's top wideouts - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5 catches for 93 yards and a TD), Parker Washington (5 for 71, TD) and Puka Nacua (7 for 167, 2 TD). It’s over or pass for Nico this week.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 74.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Jayden Higgins
Higgins still remains a part of the offense and has taken the number two spot in the wide receiver group. Last week he had 3 catches on 5 targets for 34 yards - certainly underwhelming. However, over his past five games, Higgins has been targeted on 28% of his routes, averaging 2 yards per route run. On the season Higgins has 35 catches on 55 targets (63.6% catch rate) for 393 yards and 4 touchdowns. He owns 7.15 yards per target and 11.23 yards per receptions, primarily running as an outside wide receiver (80.2%). I have loved the growth I’ve seen from Higgins this season, but even in a solid matchup this passing attack tends to funnel to Nico and the tight end, Dalton Schultz.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-125)

TE Dalton Schultz
Schultz is coming off a quiet week with just 3 catches on 4 targets for 22 yards. He also did catch a touchdown pass on the first series that was called back. On the season he has 62 catches on 80 targets (77.5% catch rate) for 574 yards and one touchdown. He leads the team in receptions and is second in targets, only behind Collins. They use him mostly inline (58.9%) and out of the slot (31.8%). He holds a 6.9 aDOT, 9.3 yards per receptions and 4.3 yards after the catch per reception. ARI is allowing the 12th most targets (7.77), 13th most receptions (5.69) and 10th most yards (61.2) to opposing tight ends this season. As mentioned, the Cardinals run a lot of two-high which makes them more susceptible to underneath pass catchers. A great bounce back spot for Schultz in a concentrated passing attack.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-145)

Best Bet 
Lean 
Score Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: Woody Marks (Texans) -130
Arizona is allowing the 12th most rushing attempts (22.5), 7th most rushing yards (107.9) and 3rd most rushing touchdowns (1.08) per game. They’ve been even worse over the past five weeks, allowing the 3rd highest yards per carry (5.4) with the 5th highest success rate (53.4%). Not to mention allowing the 12nd highest rushing yards per game (142) and 10 touchdowns to running backs! With Chubb also potentially sidelined with a rib injury this might be completely Woods' backfield. I like him to score on the ground or through the air.

Best Pick: Trey McBride (Cardinals) +160

Trey McBride leads Arizona in routes run per dropback (92%) and target share (26%). In addition, McBride ranks first among all NFL tight ends in both receiving yards (927) and touchdowns (8). Houston has been solid against opposing TEs all year, but the one area they have been vulnerable to is touchdown rate. The Texans are giving up the 4th fewest YPT to the tight end position this season (6.4), BUT when it comes to defending the end zone they drop to 13th, with a TD-rate of 5.1% to opposing TEs.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: Nico Collins (Texans) +550
Collins has just been a monster since a slow start to the season. Since he returned from his concussion in week 9, he’s ranked wide receiver 11 in both target share and air yards. Over the last five weeks, ARI has allowed 15.2 yards per catch to wideouts (4th highest in the league over that span) and a touchdown per game. We’ve seen great games from the team's top wideouts - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5 catches for 93 yards and a TD), Parker Washington (5 for 71, TD) and Puka Nacua (7 for 167, 2 TD) - all of which have scored at least one touchdown. Collins has a whopping 17 redzone targets this season and is no doubt Stroud's primary read often in the redzone.

Longshot Pick: Trey McBride (Cardinals) +1100

I'm staying with Trey McBride here. It's hard to imagine seeing his name and longshot touchdown mentioned in the same sentence, but this is only because of how stout the Texans defense is. Still, at +1100 I have to take advantage of this line. McBride has found the end zone eight times this season, and 7 of those have come over his last 8 games.

Parlay #1 (Cardinals) +305

Jacoby Brissett 2+ INTs

Michael Wilson 5+ Receptions

Trey McBride 5+ Receptions

QB Shedeur Sanders

Shedeur Sanders enters Week 15 as the unquestioned starter for the rest of the season after posting one of the best statistical games of his rookie campaign — 23/42 passing for 364 yards (8.7 YPA), 3 TDs, and 1 INT, plus a rushing score in the loss to Tennessee. Sanders has shown a willingness to push the ball vertically even under pressure, and he’ll face a Bears defense that uses Cover 3 (28.9%) and Cover 2 (22.8%) on over half its snaps. Against these shells, Sanders averages 7.69 YPA with a negative CPOE, signaling both volatility and big-play potential. Chicago is a high-TD-allowed defense: second-most passing TDs allowed per game (2.1) and multiple TDs allowed to quarterbacks in 9 of 13 games. Their zone spacing leaves deep intermediate windows open, which suits Sanders’ aggressive downfield tendencies. The Bears' pass rush also ranks bottom-third in pressure rate, giving Sanders more time to hit outbreakers and slot seams. Given Cleveland’s pass-heavy tendencies in neutral scripts and Sanders’ recent spike in pass attempts, this projects as another high-volume outing.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 184.5 Passing Yards (-120)

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy finally delivered a splash play last week with a season-long 60-yard touchdown, finishing 3/76/1 on five targets. While he has struggled to produce consistent per-game yardage — failing to hit 51+ yards in 10 of his last 12 games — he remains the Browns’ most dynamic perimeter receiver. Against Chicago’s Cover 3/Cover 2 structures, Jeudy averages 1.15 YPRR and a .18 target-per-route rate on 165 routes, modest efficiency but enough to sustain opportunity when deeper shots are dialed up. The Bears are a mixed matchup: they allow the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game to outside WRs (94.3) but the 14th-most YPRR (1.94) — meaning they often allow chunk plays even if volume stays low. With Sanders pushing the ball vertically and Jeudy running the highest rate of intermediate and deep-breaking routes on the roster, this is again a game where his production may rely on one or two explosive wins.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 36.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Harold Fannin

Harold Fannin is suddenly positioned as a centerpiece of the Browns offense following David Njoku’s knee injury. He erupted for 8/114/1 on 11 targets (32%) last week while playing a massive 90% snap share — by far his biggest workload of the season. Fannin has now reached at least three receptions in eight of his last nine games, and his efficiency against Chicago’s expected coverages is strong: 1.97 YPRR and a .27 target-per-route rate on 128 routes versus Cover 3/Cover 2 looks. The Bears have struggled for months against tight ends, allowing the 12th-most receiving yards (56.0) and 7th-most receptions (6.1) per game to the position. They were just hit for over 60 combined yards by Detroit’s tight ends and repeatedly give up the seam due to slow linebacker depth. With Sanders leaning heavily on Fannin in the middle of the field and near the red zone, his role is secure and extremely target-friendly.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-155)

RB Quinshon Judkins

Quinshon Judkins struggled on the ground last week with 14/26 rushing but salvaged his day with a 58-yard catch — his most explosive play of the season. His snap share (45%) and carry share (70%) remained strong, but backfield partner Dylan Sampson handled most of the receiving work. Judkins has reached 14+ carries in five straight games, and he draws a favorable rushing matchup even if Chicago stiffens inside the 10. The Bears allow the second-most yards before contact per attempt (2.76 YBC/ATT) and 12th-most rushing yards (103.2) per game to RBs, though they give up just 0.6 rushing TDs per game, making yardage overs more realistic than scoring props. Chicago also just surrendered 20/86/1 on the ground to Josh Jacobs. Judkins’ early-down volume, paired with his growing role on screens and checkdowns, gives him multiple paths to production.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 1.5 Receptions (-110)

QB Caleb Williams

Back-to-back tough weeks for Caleb Williams through the air, throwing for 186 yards and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio. But that was a tough Packers defence. Luckily this week, he gets the Cleveland Browns defence... Just kidding. He might be in for another tough one this week, as the Browns allow the 3rd fewest completions (17.5), the 2nd fewest pass attempts (27.7), the fewest passing yards (185.5) and the 13th fewest passing TDs (1.5). The Browns run the 2nd most man coverage (39.5%), and the most Cover 1 (36%). Against man coverage, Williams has the 9th lowest completion percentage (54.3%), and is middle of the pack in yards per attempt (6.45) and QBR (98.1). Against Cover 1, Williams performs better, finishing with the 13th highest completion percentage (58.8%), the 12th highest QBR (95.3) and is middle of the pack in yards per attempt (7.09). Even on the ground, where Williams has added only 28 rushing yards as of late, the Browns allow the 4th fewest rushing yards (11.8) to opposing QBs. This will be a tough week for Williams to rebound.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams u213.5 Passing & Rushing Yards (-115)

RB D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift regained the lead in snap share in the backfield, running 57.4% compared to Monangai's 41.2%. He was the more productive back as well, despite seeing one fewer carry, rushing for 63 yards to Monangai's 57. This week, he gets the Browns, who allow the 9th-most rush attempts and the 13th-fewest rushing yards (88.9). On the ground, the Browns run the more zone concept (46.7%), than man/gap (35.7%). And they're one of the better teams in the NFL against zone concept, allowing just a 3.4 yards per carry, and a decent 4.38 yards per carry in man/gap. Swift has been efficient against both coverages, averaging 4.97 yards per carry against zone concept and 4.61 yards per carry against man/gap. And although it's a tough matchup on the ground, with how Williams has been playing, they could very well lean on Ben Johnson's new, Etsy version of Sonic and Knuckles and rely on Swift and Monangai in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift 50+ Rushing Yards (-150)

WR Rome Odunze

Rome Odunze missed last week, but managed to put together three straight limited practices, so it appears he'll get back this week, though that's not confirmed at the time of this writing. But this Browns passing defence is the real deal. They allow the fewest receptions (8.6) and the 2nd fewest receiving yards (109.2) to WRs this season. Against man coverage, Odunze has caught 15 of his 27 targets for 189 receiving yards and leads the team, by far, with a 29.3% target share. Against Cover 1 specifically, Odunze has caught 13 of his 22 targets for 186 receiving yards, and, again, leads the team with a 31.9% target share. Odunze is the rare Bears receiver that sees his catch rate (61.5%) and yards per route run (1.88) increase in man coverage, and his yards per reception (12.0) dip compared to his zone splits. Odunze does most of his work on the perimeter. To outside WRs, the Browns are targeted at the 9th lowest rate, allowing the 15th fewest catch rate (61.4%) and the 11th lowest yards per reception (12.67). There are currently no lines at the time of this writing with Odunze's questionable tag. But we would probably lean away from him this week, returning from injury and in a tough matchup.

Suggested pick:

Pass

WR Luther Burden

I'm officially done covering DJ Moore. He hasn't been good all year. He'll have spike weeks that are near impossible to predict. It's especially frustrating because he consistently plays over 80% of the snaps and just can't do anything with his time. So we're skipping Moore completely and replacing him with Luther Burden, who's seeing more and more snaps as the weeks go on. Against man coverage, Burden has been quite limited. He's caught three of four targets for 47 receiving yards – all of which have come against Cover 1, the Browns' most preferred shell. He sees his yards per reception (15.7) increase in man coverage, but his catch rate (75%) and yards per route run (1.47) decrease compared to his zone splits. Last week, Burden ran 64.3% of his slate on the outside. However, with Odunze in the lineup, Burden ran 76% of his routes from the slot. So, if all three are in, it's safe to assume he will primarily be in the slot. Against slot receivers, the Browns are targeted at the 3rd-lowest rate, allowing the 3rd-lowest catch rate (62.2%), but the 11th-highest yards per reception (11.5). Again, with no confirmation on Odunze, we don't have a line for Burden. However, Burden was able to smash his 37.5 receiving yards line last week. That number should only go down if Odunze is in, and we like that considering his trajectory over the past few weeks, we'll take another shot at Burden.

Suggested pick:

Luther Burden over Receiving Yards if under 40.

TE Colston Loveland

Colston Loveland's production has been steady. He has logged 3+ receptions in five straight and 4+ targets over that same span. Where he sees a bit of inconsistency is in his yardages, not surpassing the 30 receiving yard mark over the past two weeks. This Browns defence is elite against all positions, but teams have had more success against them in the TE position. The Browns allow the 9th fewest receptions (4.7) and the 13th fewest receiving yards (48.4) per game to opposing TEs –– like I said, not a favourable matchup, but better than the other position groups. Against man coverage, Loveland has caught seven of his 10 targets for 54 receiving yards with a 10.8% target share –– surprisingly, all of which have come against Cover 1, where he sees his target share increase to 14.7%. Loveland does do his best work against zone coverage, as he sees his catch rate (66.7%), yards per reception (8.5) and yards per route run (0.84) all dip in man compared to zone. As a TE, Loveland lines up inline on 45% of his snaps. Against inline receivers, the Browns allow the 12th-lowest target rate, but the 9th-highest catch rate (81.3%) and the 11th-highest yards per reception (9.97). We like Loveland to continue his steady volume in this slightly more favourable matchup.

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland o3.5 Receptions (+120)

Best Bet 
Lean 
Score Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Bet: (Browns) Jerry Jeudy Anytime TD +315

Jerry Jeudy finally reminded everyone of his explosive upside last week with a 60-yard touchdown — and while his season-long numbers remain inconsistent, the underlying structure of this matchup quietly boosts his TD equity again. Chicago runs Cover 3 and Cover 2 on over half of their snaps, and Jeudy’s best trait — creating separation on deep crossers and intermediate outbreakers — specifically attacks the weak points of those coverages. Jeudy averages 1.15 YPRR and a .18 TPRR versus these shells, which isn’t elite, but his role in the offense is high-value: he leads Browns receivers in air yards per target and deep-route percentage. The Bears are also a defense that gets beat in isolated outside matchups despite allowing modest overall WR yardage. They allow 1.94 YPRR to perimeter receivers (14th-most), meaning they give up chunk plays more than they give up consistent volume. Sanders has shown a willingness to take deep shots (8.7 YPA last week), and Jeudy’s route tree aligns with the very areas where Chicago’s safeties have been late rotating all season. With Cleveland increasing their play-action rate under Sanders, Jeudy’s odds of another schemed vertical or double-move shot are higher than usual.

Longshot: 

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: 

Best Bet: (Browns) Quinshon Judkins First TD +650

Quinshon Judkins remains the Browns’ primary early-down runner and goal-line option, making him a strong candidate for the first touchdown scorer in this matchup. He has handled 70% of the carries in back-to-back weeks, and Cleveland continues to give him the opening-drive workload to establish script control. The Bears have major issues defending the run early in games: they allow the second-most yards before contact (2.76 YBC/ATT) and frequently lose gap integrity on their first two defensive series before adjusting. This is exactly the type of defensive profile Judkins thrives on. Even last week, despite a low rushing total, he ripped off a season-high 58-yard reception — proof that his touches can create explosive scoring opportunities even when the run game isn’t efficient. Chicago just gave up a first-drive touchdown to Josh Jacobs in Week 14, and they have allowed an opening-drive TD in three of their last five games. If the Browns get inside the 5-yard line early, Judkins is overwhelmingly the favorite to get the carry. Sanders’ red-zone rushing is still limited by design, and Dylan Sampson is mostly a passing-down complement.

Longshot:

Parlay #1 (Browns): +230 on Fliff

Shedeur Sanders ‘O’ 184.5 Pass Yards

Harold Fannin Jr. ‘O’ 4.5 Receptions

Jerry Jeudy ‘O’ 36.5 Receiving Yards

QB Marcus Mariota

Well that didn't last long. Jayden Daniels returned and then re-injured his elbow. So we're back to Marcus Mariota szn baby. And, honestly, I don't think we should be discouraged about that. He's been pretty good in relief this season. In his last outing against a difficult Denver Broncos defence, Mariota went 28/50 for 294 passing yards with a 2:1 TD:INT ratio. This week, he'll get a favourable matchup against the New York Giants, who allow the 6th most completions (22.7), the 7th most pass attempts (34.9), the 9th most passing yards (244.9) and the 6th most passing TDs (1.7) per game. The Giants are one of the most man-heavy teams in the NFL, running it at the 3rd highest rate (39.2%). But against man coverage this season, Mariota has struggled. He has the 5th lowest completion percentage (49.2%), the 2nd lowest yards per attempt (4.64) and the 5th lowest QBR (77.4). More specifically, the Giants run Cover 1 at the 3rd highest rate (31.3%). And it's the same story for Mariota. He has the 5th lowest completion percentage (48.8%), the 2nd lowest yards per attempt (4.73) and the 4th lowest QBR (68.5). Mariota likes to use his legs as well, finishing with 49 and 55 rushing yards over his last two starts. And that plays well into the Giants' defence, who allow the 3rd most rushing yards (24.2) per game to opposing QBs. But we're going to target what Mariota can do through the air. It's kind of disrespectful to see Mariota at this line when he's cleared this line in five of his six starts this season.

Suggested pick:

Marcus Mariota o206.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Chris Rodriguez

I, for one, am upset about last week's result. It was a fantastic volume matchup for Rodriguez, and he got to within one heading into the fourth quarter. But did not see another attempt due to a 31-0 blowout. Anyway, we put that in the past and focus on this week against the Giants, who allow the 2nd most rush attempts (20.5) and the 12th fewest rushing yards (125.3) per game to opposing RBs. The Giants run more man/gap (45.5%) than zone concept (34.9%). When in man/gap, the Giants allow BY FAR the highest yards per carry at 6.98 –– almost 2.0 full yards more per game than the second-worst team, and 2.5 yards per carry more than they allow against zone concept. This is perfect for Rodriguez, as he has a better average against man/gap (5.16) than he does against zone concept (3.87). So, Rodriguez, you owe us after last week! Getter done in this easy matchup against the Giants run defence.

Suggested Pick:

Chris Rodriguez 50+ Rushing Yards (-120)

WR Deebo Samuel

Deebo isn't used to having to share the receiving work with another star receiver on the Commanders. But last week, he still saw a respectable six targets, but turned that into just four receptions for 27 receiving yards. This week, he'll get a Giants defence, who allow the 5th most receptions (12.5) and the 4th most receiving yards (165.5) per game to opposing WRs. Against man coverage, Deebo has caught 16 of his 24 targets for 145 receiving yards, earning a 23.8% target share. And against the Giants' most preferred shell, Cover 1, Deebo has caught seven of his 14 targets for 53 receiving yards and a 19.4% target share. Deebo does perform better against zone coverage, as he sees his catch rate (68%) and yards per route run (1.52) decrease in man coverage, but his yards per reception (8.8) slightly rise. Samuel is used in the slot on 62.6% of his snaps. The Giants are targeted at the 11th highest rate, allowing the 8th lowest catch rate (65.9%) but the 5th highest yards per reception (12.51). We're still encouraged by Samuel's targets, which makes us like his receptions this week. And in Week 1 against the Giants, with a healthy McLaurin, Samuel caught seven of his 10 targets for 77 receiving yards.

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel o4.5 Receptions (-110)

WR Terry McLaurin

It wasn't necessarily the best week for McLaurin last week after a dominant return against the Broncos, but he still managed to turn his five targets into three receptions for 41 receiving yards. But unfortunately for McLaurin, he's got some brutal numbers against man coverage. He has caught just four of his 16 targets for 41 receiving yards on 50 routes. However, the silver lining could be his team-leading 28.1% target share against the coverage. More of the same goes for the Giants' most preferred shell, Cover 1, where he has just one reception on nine targets for seven receiving yards, despite still leading the Commanders with a 25.7% target share. Looking at those numbers, there should be no surprise to learn that McLaurin sees his catch rate (26.7%), yards per reception (10.3) and yards per route run (0.87) all dip in man coverage compared to zone. McLaurin does most of his work on the outside, lining up on the perimeter on 86.7% of his routes. Against outside WRs, the Giants are targeted at the 9th highest rate and allow the 5th highest catch rate (65.2%), but the 9th lowest yards per reception (12.58). Looking into the last two weeks of McLaurin's return, he performed much better with Mariota as his QB than he did with Daniels. Now, that shouldn't necessarily be expected for the future, but it matters this week against a weak Giants matchup.

Suggested pick:

Terry McLaurin o57.5+ Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jaxson Dart

Jaxson Dart returned from a two-week concussion absence last week and clearly played within himself, completing 17/24 passes for 139 yards (5.8 YPA) and 1 TD while adding 4/20 rushing and a two-point conversion. It was easily his most conservative outing of the season, especially after he accounted for multiple touchdowns in each of his first seven starts. The Giants limited his rushing attempts to a season-low four carries, signaling an effort to keep him healthy down the stretch rather than fully unleashing his legs. That said, this matchup sets up much better. Since Dan Quinn took over defensive playcalling, Washington has leaned heavily on Cover 4 (30%) and Cover 3 (23%), and Dart has been efficient against those shells, averaging 7.57 YPA, a +7.5% CPOE, and 98 rushing yards on 131 dropbacks. The Commanders have struggled mightily against quarterbacks, allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game (260.9) and the third-most passing TDs per game (2.0). J.J. McCarthy just threw three touchdowns against this defense last week, and Washington continues to give up explosive plays when safeties are forced to drive downhill. Even if Dart’s rushing is capped, the passing environment alone supports a rebound.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 33.5 Yard Longest Completion (-125)

RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Tyrone Tracy’s status is the biggest variable in this matchup after he exited Week 13 with a hip contusion and stinger. If active, he remains the Giants’ clear lead back, having accounted for 19+ carries, 3+ receptions, and 130+ scrimmage yards in back-to-back games before his dud against New England. Washington is a strong matchup for running backs, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game (111.5), 12th-most adjusted yards before contact (2.25), and the seventh-most receiving yards (36.5) to the position. Tracy struggled in the season opener against Washington (10/24 rushing), but his role has expanded significantly since then. If Tracy is limited or ruled out, Devin Singletary would immediately inherit both early-down and receiving work, but assuming Tracy plays, he projects for heavy volume again in a favorable script.

 Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 13.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

WR Wan’Dale Robinson

Wan’Dale Robinson continues to function as the engine of the Giants’ passing game, hauling in 7/34 on 8 targets last week while running routes on every dropback. Since Malik Nabers exited the lineup, Robinson has reached 5+ receptions in seven of nine games, and his usage remains extremely stable regardless of game script. Washington’s defensive structure plays directly into his strengths. Against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Robinson averages 2.01 yards per route run with a .27 target-per-route rate on 187 routes. The Commanders are the worst defense in football against slot receivers, allowing the most receiving yards per game (98.9) and the highest YPRR (2.39) from the slot. Robinson posted 6/55 against Washington earlier this season despite quarterback instability, and the Commanders’ linebackers continue to struggle with lateral quickness and spacing underneath. Even if the Giants don’t push the ball vertically, Robinson’s role remains insulated and volume-driven.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 5.5 Receptions (+100)

WR Darius Slayton

Darius Slayton’s momentum stalled after his hamstring injury, and his role has been less consistent since Isaiah Hodgins was added to the receiver rotation. Over the last two games, Slayton has just five total receptions, though he’s turned those limited looks into 64 yards and a touchdown, highlighting that his production is still efficiency-based rather than volume-driven. Against Washington’s Cover 3/Cover 4 mix, Slayton averages 2.16 YPRR with a .15 TPRR, strong numbers for a perimeter receiver who runs primarily intermediate and vertical routes. The Commanders give up the fifth-most YPRR (2.25) to outside wide receivers, even while holding overall yardage to league-average levels. This defense is susceptible to chunk gains when safeties are late rotating, which is where Slayton’s speed shows up. While his floor remains lower than Robinson’s, his path to production is clear if Dart connects on a few downfield throws.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 34.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson once again commanded volume last week, seeing 8 targets while finishing with 3/29 receiving on a 73% route share. He’s now recorded 3+ receptions in nine of his last ten games, and Washington’s defense has been one of the league’s most generous to tight ends. Against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Johnson averages 1.09 YPRR with a .18 TPRR, modest efficiency but steady involvement. The Commanders allow the ninth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends (61.4) and the second-most receiving TDs per game (.7) at the position. They were just burned for three tight end touchdowns last week by T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver, repeatedly losing track of seams and shallow crossers. Johnson may not be explosive, but his red-zone usage and route participation give him one of the safest usage profiles in the Giants’ offense.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (+105)

This is my upset pick of the week. Commanders get it done on the road against a terrible defensive team

Best Bet Commanders ML +120
Lean Over 47.5 -120
Score Prediction Commanders 27 Giants 24

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Commanders): Chris Rodriguez Anytime TD (+135)

Rodriguez has scored a TD in 3/L5 weeks, despite seeing no more than 12 targets in any of those games. Over the last three weeks, during which Rodriguez has run over 40% of the snaps, he is the only Commanders RB to find the end zone, and has dominated inside the five carries, at 42.9%. The Giants allow the 6th most rushing TDs per game (0.92) to RBs.

Best Bet: (Giants) RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. Anytime TD +130

If Tyrone Tracy is active, his touchdown equity is quietly strong in this matchup. Washington has been one of the most RB-friendly defenses in the league, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game (111.5) and struggling with gap discipline once backs reach the second level. They also give up 2.25 adjusted yards before contact, meaning runners aren’t being hit early — a key indicator for goal-line success. Before leaving Week 13 with a hip contusion, Tracy had posted back-to-back games of 19+ carries, 3+ receptions, and 130+ scrimmage yards, and he has clearly separated himself as the Giants’ preferred early-down and red-zone option when healthy. Washington’s linebackers tend to over-pursue laterally in Cover 3 and Cover 4 looks, which opens interior cutback lanes near the goal line — an area where Tracy’s downhill style fits well. Even if the Giants mix in Devin Singletary between the 20s, Tracy remains the most likely back to handle a goal-to-go carry.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Commanders) Terry McLaurin First TD (+1100)

McLaurin has just two TDs on the season, but those two came in the last three weeks. In the two weeks since McLaurin returned to the lineup, he leads the team in inside the five targets (5), end zone targets (4) and first read percentage (27.8%). The Giants are averaging over one TD per game (1.1) to opposing WRs this season.

Longshot: (Giants) WR WanDale Robinson First TD +1100

Wan’Dale Robinson profiles as one of the strongest first-touchdown candidates on the Giants because of how Washington structures its defense early in games. The Commanders open drives with heavy Cover 4 and Cover 3 usage (53% combined), prioritizing deep safety help and conceding underneath throws — exactly where Robinson operates. He leads the Giants in early-drive targets and has run a 100% route share in recent games, making him Jaxson Dart’s most reliable scripted option. Against these coverages, Robinson averages 2.01 YPRR and a .27 target-per-route rate, and Washington has been the worst slot defense in football, allowing the most slot receiving yards per game (98.9) and the highest YPRR (2.39) from that alignment. The Commanders frequently allow opening-drive touchdowns because their linebackers struggle with quick option routes and shallow crossers before adjustments kick in. If the Giants reach the red zone early, Robinson is the most likely player to be schemed open on a quick hitter or motion-based concept.

Parlay 1: (Commanders) +320 odds on bet365

Marcus Mariota 200+ Passing Yards

Chris Rodriguez 40+ Rushing Yards

Deebo Samuel 5+ Receptions

Parlay #2(Giants) +635

Theo Johnson ‘O’ 3.5 Receptions

Tyrone Tracy ‘O’ 13.5 Rush Attempts

Jaxson Dart ‘O’ 34.5 Longest Pass Completion

QB Kenny Pickett

Geno Smith enters this matchup banged up behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines, dealing with both a foot issue and a throwing shoulder injury after Week 14. He was efficient in limited action against Denver (8/11 for 97 yards and a TD), but that came in a short, low-pressure sample with Kenny Pickett spelling him late. Philadelphia has quietly turned into one of the tougher QB matchups, allowing just 1.0 passing TDs per game and holding opposing quarterbacks to one or fewer passing scores in eight of their last nine games. The Eagles mix Cover 3 and Cover 6 at a 50%+ clip, forcing quarterbacks to sustain long drives rather than hit explosives, and Geno has struggled when pressured and forced into extended reads. With pass protection concerns and a conservative game script likely, volume and touchdown ceiling both look capped.

Suggested Play: 

'U' 0.5 Pass TDs (-145)

RB Ashton Jeanty

Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty’s workload remains solid, but efficiency continues to be a major issue. He ranks near the bottom of the league in stuff rate (54.5%), explosive run rate (1.6%), and yards before contact over expected, and he’s posted four games under 7.5 FP in his last five outings. Philadelphia is not a dominant run-stopping unit, but they’re disciplined up front, allowing just 2.04 adjusted yards before contact, which limits easy lanes early. Where this matchup gets more interesting is in the passing game, as the Eagles allow the fifth-most receiving yards per game to RBs (41.6) and often concede checkdowns against Cover 6 looks. If the Raiders fall behind, Jeanty’s best path to production comes through receiving usage rather than raw rushing efficiency.

Suggested Play:

'O' 3.5 Receptions (-130)

WR Jack Bech

A receiver named Jack Bech quietly emerged as the Raiders’ most reliable perimeter receiver in Week 14, catching all six of his targets and leading the team in receiving yards despite quarterback instability. Against Cover 3 and Cover 6, he’s been efficient in a small sample, posting 2.13 YPRR and a .23 TPRR, which are strong indicators of involvement when routes develop. Philadelphia allows the seventh-most receiving yards per game to outside receivers (114.4), even though they limit efficiency on a per-route basis. With defensive attention tilted toward Brock Bowers, Bech projects as the most likely wideout to benefit from single coverage and intermediate looks, especially if the Raiders trail and are forced into volume passing late.

Suggested Play: 

'O' 17.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Brock Bowers

Bowers continues to be the clear red-zone engine of the Raiders’ offense, even with inconsistent quarterback play and modest overall target volume. Over the last two weeks, he’s turned just 9 targets into 3 touchdowns, and his efficiency against the Eagles’ preferred Cover 3 / Cover 6 shells stands out, averaging 2.36 yards per route run with a strong .21 targets per route run. Philadelphia allows the fewest yards per game to tight ends, but that number is heavily influenced by teams simply not featuring the position — not by shutting down elite talents. When offenses do scheme tight ends into the red zone, Philly has been vulnerable on play-action and leak concepts. With defensive attention often tilted toward stopping perimeter receivers and the run, Bowers remains the most likely Raider to be featured near the goal line, especially on scripted drives and broken-play situations where Geno Smith looks inside quickly.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+215)

QB Jalen Hurts

Let's just all forget about last week, eh, Jalen? Nobody wants to talk about your 21/40, 240 passing yards, and four-interception game in a loss to the LA Chargers. This week, he faces the Las Vegas Raiders, who allow the 12th-most completions (21.6) and the 16th-most passing yards (222.8), but the 15th-fewest pass attempts (31.5) and the 13th-fewest passing TDs (1.5). So, not a great matchup, but not one you're running away from, either. The Raiders run the most zone coverage (83.9%) in the entire NFL, and, more specifically, the most Cover 3 (47.2%). Hurts faced a very zone-heavy team last week as well. So, again, it should be just another mid-matchup for Hurts. Against zone coverage, Hurts ranks in the middle of the pack in completion percentage (68.2%), yards per attempt (7.35) and QBR (95.5). For the most part, the same can be said of his Cover 3 splits: he's middle of the pack in yards per attempt (7.36) and QBR (87.2), but has the 4th-lowest completion percentage (63.6%). Even on the ground, Hurts struggled last week, rushing for just eight yards on four attempts, and it'll be another tough matchup for him as the Raiders allow the 6th fewest rushing yards (12.8) per game to opposing QBs. While the Raiders pose as a promising rebound matchup, it might not actually be with how mid he is against zone coverage. We'll let Hurts show us before we back him again.

Suggested pick:

Pass

RB Saquon Barkley

Wow. Saquon remembered how to run the football. He had his second-best week of the season, rushing for 122 yards on 20 attempts. Can he replicate that this week? The Raiders' defence allows the 7th-most rush attempts (23.9) and the 15th-most rushing yards (98.3) per game. Las Vegas run a near even split in terms of zone concept (41.7%), and man/gap (41.9%). And that's also reflected in their averages, allowing a 4.16 yards per carry in zone concept and 4.06 against man/gap. Not bad, but over the 4.0 threshold that backs aim for. Saquon has struggled against zone concept this season, averaging a 3.89 yards per carry, and a slightly better 4.06 against man/gap. Barkley has shown he can spike in the receiving game; however, over the last two weeks, Barkley hasn't been able to bring in any of his three targets, and that shouldn't change this week against a Raiders defence that are middle of the pack in both RB receptions (4.5) and receiving yards (29.9). Maybe the Raiders have found something in their run game and will lean on it a little more now that Hurts is coming off a four-turnover game, and let Barkley build off that moving forward.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley o74.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR AJ Brown

AJ Brown bunked our trend between him and Devonta Smith, and the splits in man/zone-heavy teams. Brown put up his third consecutive 100-yard game, catching six of his 13 targets. He'll get another zone-heavy team in the Raiders, who allow the 3rd most receptions (13.3) and the 9th most receiving yards (154.5) per game to opposing WRs. Against zone coverage, Brown has caught 41 of his 64 targets for 502 receiving yards, leading the team with a 24.9% target share. And against the Raiders' most preferred shell, Cover 3, Brown has caught 26 of his 38 targets for 344 receiving yards and leads the team with a massive 33% target share. So, he's still quite used against zone coverages. He sees his catch rate (64.1%) increase in zone, but his yards per reception (12.3) and yards per route run (1.89) decrease compared to his numbers against man coverage. Brown lines up outwide on 89.8% of his snaps. The Raiders are targeted at the 11th-highest rate, allowing the 2nd-highest catch rate but the 13th-lowest yards per reception. However, with the way Brown is rolling right now, we're going to continue to ride with Brown in this light matchup.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown o64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Devonta Smith

Smith let us down last week. It was set up to be a massive day, but AJ Brown outshined him. Smith caught four of his seven targets for 37 receiving yards. That's now three of his last four games where he finished with sub-50 receiving yards. Against zone coverage, Smith has caught 46 of his 64 targets for 657 receiving yards and a respectable 24% target share. Against Cover 3 specifically, Smith has caught 20 of his 28 targets for 293 receiving yards and a 23.1% target share. Even better numbers than those of his regular zone splits. Smith also sees his catch rate (73.7%), yards per reception (14.0) and yards per route run (2.03) in zone coverage compared to man. Smith lines up primarily in the slot, at which the Raiders are targeted at the 10th lowest rate, but allow the 5th highest catch rate (74.8%), and the 4th lowest yards per reception (8.95). Although he didn't cover his receptions line last week, his targets are still there, totalling 25 of his last three weeks, so we like his receptions line this week.

Suggested pick:

Devonta Smith o4.5 Receptions (-140)

TE Dallas Goedert

After three down weeks, Goedert went nuclear last week, catching eight of his 10 targets for 78 receiving yards. Those were all his second-best totals of his season. This week, he gets the Raiders. And while the Raiders struggle against WRs, they are much better against TEs. To the TE position, the Raiders are allowing the 3rd fewest receptions (3.6) and receiving yards (37.5). Against zone coverage, Goedert has caught 37 of his 49 targets for 396 receiving yards and a 19.2% target share. He also sees his catch rate (78.6%), yards per reception (10.5) and yards per route run (1.45) in zone coverage compared to man coverage. Against Cover 3, Goedert has caught 15 of his 23 targets for 149 receiving yards with a 19.7% target share. Like Smith, Goedert does most of his work from the slot. However, this is all setting up for a back-to-reality week for Goedert against a tough TE matchup against the Raiders.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert u3.5 Receptions (-115)

Best Bet 
Lean 
Score Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Raiders) Brock Bowers Anytime TD +215

Brock Bowers continues to be the clear red-zone engine of the Raiders’ offense, even with inconsistent quarterback play and modest overall target volume. Over the last two weeks, he’s turned just 9 targets into 3 touchdowns, and his efficiency against the Eagles’ preferred Cover 3 / Cover 6 shells stands out, averaging 2.36 yards per route run with a strong .21 targets per route run. Philadelphia allows the fewest yards per game to tight ends, but that number is heavily influenced by teams simply not featuring the position — not by shutting down elite talents. When offenses do scheme tight ends into the red zone, Philly has been vulnerable on play-action and leak concepts. With defensive attention often tilted toward stopping perimeter receivers and the run, Bowers remains the most likely Raider to be featured near the goal line, especially on scripted drives and broken-play situations where Geno Smith looks inside quickly.

Best Pick: (Eagles): Saquon Barkley TD (-115)

Saquon Barkley finally found the end zone on the ground again for the first time since Week 8. Maybe they just continue to lean on the Barkley in the red zone. There is always the worry that Hurts vulture's Barkley's score if they get on the one-yard line. But considering the Raiders are allowing over a TD per game to opposing RBs, we like Barkley's chances to find the end zone for the second consecutive week.

Longshot: 

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Raiders) Ashton Jeanty First TD +765

Ashton Jeanty’s efficiency has been inconsistent, but his early-drive usage remains intact, and that’s what matters for a first-TD angle. Despite ranking near the bottom of the league in explosive run rate and yards before contact, Jeanty still handles the bulk of early rushing attempts and is the back most likely to see goal-to-go carries if the Raiders reach scoring position early. Philadelphia allows the 14th-most rushing yards per game and has shown vulnerability to downhill runners on scripted opening drives before tightening coverage. With Brock Bowers often used to stretch the middle of the field between the 20s, the Raiders’ most likely early touchdown script still runs through Jeanty getting the first crack inside the five. If Las Vegas scores first, the path most often points to a short rushing attempt rather than a low-percentage perimeter throw.

 Parlay #1 (Raiders) +1260

Jack Bech 'O' 17.5 Receiving Yards

Ashton Jeanty ATD

Brock Bowers ATD

Parlay 2: (Eagles) +230 odds on bet365

Saquon Barkley TD

Saquon Barkley 70+ Rushing Yards

QB Phillip Rivers
Daniel Jones is lost for the season, so we are getting rookie backup Riley Leonard this week right? WRONG. Instead we are getting retired 44-year old Philip Rivers off the couch. He must have gotten sick of having so many children. I literally have no idea what to expect. He hasn’t played in 5 years (since 2020), but does know the offense as the former Colts QB. He also had head coach, Shane Steichen, as an offensive coordinator in LA in 2019. Luckily he walks into an easy matchup right? Nope. He gets a brutal SEA defense in his first game. They hold the 4th lowest EPA per pass play (-0.10). There are absolutely no lines up for Rivers yet and I’m not jumping to take any. SEA grades out as the 10th best pass rush unit and 4th best coverage unit. Let’s all stay off of Rivers' props and just enjoy what the 44-year old can do.

 Suggested Picks
PASS

RB Jonathan Taylor
JT is coming off 21 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown. Taylor also lost a fumble. He’s had a brutal line of matchups, facing top half teams in EPA per rush the last three weeks (averaging just 3.7 yards per carry). It doesn’t get a whole lot easier here as SEA ranks 1st in EPA per rush (-0.15). Taylor is having an excellent season with 247 carries for 1,356 yards and 16 (leads league) touchdowns. He is averaging 104.3 rushing yards per game, 5.49 yards per carry with a 54.3% success rate. He also has a 6.5% explosive rate this season. How will that change with Rivers under center? It’s hard to tell, but there is no doubt that IND will stick with the run game as long as they can. Taylor owns 87% of the backfield touches, which is highest of any backfield. SEA really is a brutal matchup though. They are allowing the lowest yards per carry (3.6), the 5th lowest explosive run rate (2.6%) and 3rd lowest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (70.5). They have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season and it’s hard to see that happening this week as -13.5 dogs. SEA is, no doubt, going to load the box. If they stop Taylor, they’ll likely cruise to the finish line in this one. He’s a fade or pass. With a quickly falling game script, I’ll fade the rushing attempts first.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 21.5 Rushing Attempts (-145)

WR Alec Pierce
Despite losing the quarterback, Pierce still had a solid day. He finished with 5 catches on 8 targets for 80 yards. Pierce is the definition of a deep ball wide receiver. He leads the entire NFL in yards per reception (20.24). Unfortunately for him, SEA has only allowed a single touchdown on a throw greater than 20 yards down the field. We also don’t know if Rivers will have the arm strength to throw a good deep ball. This season Pierce has caught 38 balls on 66 targets (57.6% catch rate) for 769 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He has a 96.1 passer rating when targeted, an 18.7% target share and he almost strictly runs outside (90.6%). He holds an 18.8 aDOT with a 45.4% air yardage share, outpacing his teammate Pittman in team yardage share (27.7% to 21.5%). On top of the unknown, this is still a bad matchup for all of the wideouts here. SEA is allowing the 3rd lowest catch rate (55.1%) and lowest yards per target (5.8). The lines completely reflect this to the point where they are becoming values. With such a low line, I’ll lean over but personally won’t make a play here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - LEAN

WR Michael Pittman Jr.
If Riley Leonard was the starting quarterback this week, we’d really like Pittman receptions in this spot that should eventually be pass heavy. After Jones left, Pittman was targeted 34.5% of the time. He finished the game with 9 catches on 12 targets for 79 yards. He had a touchdown that was called back as well. This season Pittman has caught 69 passes of 91 targets (75.8% catch rate) for 699 yards with only a 2.2% drop rate. He’s been a touchdown machine with 7 on the season and fills the role of the more possession-based wide receiver in this offense. For that reason, I like Pittman more here. Again, we aren’t sure how strong Rivers’ arm still is and how aggressive the gameplan will be with a 44-year old quarterback that hasn’t played since 2020. Pittman should be relied upon as the go to option given the circumstances.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-148)

TE Tyler Warren
Warren is coming off a brutal game, where he only caught 2 of 6 targets for 15 yards, adding a 2-yard rush too. That still doesn’t take away from an excellent season where Warren has 60 catches on 79 targets (75.9% catch rate) for 699 yards and four touchdowns. He’s averaging 11.7 yards per reception, a 5.7 aDOT and 7.1 yards after the catch per reception which is impressive. He plays mostly between the slot (44.2%) and inline (38.6%). The QB situation certainly muddies the waters in terms of expectations. However, if Rivers’ is going to ease into things Warren could be busy in this matchup. SEA is allowing the 3rd most targets (8.85), 2nd most receptions (6.77) and 2nd most yards (71.8) to tight ends. They have been much more stingy in terms of touchdowns allowed to the position (8th lowest). Warren is probably my favorite pass catcher to back in this offense in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-148)

QB Sam Darnold
Darnold cooked last week as SEA crushed ATL 37 to 9. He finished 20 of 30 for 249 yards, 3 touchdowns and a single pick. He finished with a 111.7 passer rating and three carries for 23 yards. This season Darnold continues to be fantastic, completing 241 passes of 354 attempts (68.1% completion rate) for 3,162 yards and 22 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. He owns a aDOT of 9 with just a 2.8% drop rate by his pass catchers. He’s averaging 243.2 passing yards per game, 8.93 yards per attempt and a 103.8 passer rating. Despite a low pressure rate (28.8%), he still owns a 3.4% turnover-worthy throw rate. This matchup sets up well for Darnold as long as SEA has to throw. Darnold ranks 1st in passer grading against man coverage. IND runs man coverage at the 8th highest rate this season and will be without top cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward. One concern is that part of Darnold’s success is while using play action. He’s averaging a league-best 12.4 yards per attempt and 18.0 yards per completions out of play action. IND has allowed just a 60.7% completion rate and 5.2 yards per pass attempt on play action, which is good for 6th and 2nd lowest, respectively. It would make sense that without their top two cornerbacks, they might run more zone and two-high to force Darnold to beat them with a more dink and dunk approach. For the most part his lines seem spot on. I’ll fade his rushing attempts here given the likely game flow.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 2.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)

RB Kenneth Walker III
Walker was stuffed last week, finishing with just 10 carries for 29 yards and a single catch on 3 targets for -1 yards. This season Walker has rushed 170 times for 762 yards and 4 touchdowns. He still holds an excellent 7.6% explosive run rate, but only a 43.5% success rate. This run game has really struggled all season and it’s the achilles heel of this team. Walker is only averaging 58.6 rushing yards per game and 4.48 yards per carry. He continues to be the 1A in the backfield. He out touched Charb 6 to 2 in the first half and Charb took over when the game when more out of hand (10 to 3 in the 2nd half). Walker has struggled to find the endzone with only one touchdown since week 3. We have seen promising rushing attacks against this Colts defense over the last few weeks - Travis Etienne (20 carries for 74 yards, 2 TD’s), Marks (19 for 64) and Hunt (30 for 104, TD). It’s just hard to predict his usage behind a struggling offensive line. If the game gets out of hand, it could be Charb in there for cleanup duty. He’s a fade or pass. Under 2.5 receptions does make a nice parlay piece though.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
‘U’ 2.5 Receptions (-200)

RB Zach Charbonnet
Zach certainly had the better day last week, rushing 7 times for 46 yards with  2 catches on 3 targets for 20 yards. He continues to be a preferred option near the goal line and it seems like he’s the mop up crew if SEA is blowing a team out. It’s a way to get him work, but also make sure Walker stays healthy. It’s hard not to think he’ll get the opportunity as almost 14-point favorites here. Charbonnet’s numbers have been getting a little better, but he’s been mostly ineffective as a runner this season. He has 132 carries for 483 yards, averaging just 3.66 yards per carry and a 3.8% explosive run rate. He owns one of the lowest success rates in the league at 31.1%. However, he does have 8 touchdowns on the season. After fading him almost the whole season, he’s the guy I’d prefer to back here. With a more even workload, he draws the lower number and could get a lot of second half work.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 37.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
After the first real letdown game of the season, JSN did exactly what we thought he’d do - bounce back. He finished last week with 7 catches on 10 targets for 92 yards and a pair of touchdowns. His incredible season continues, catching 89 receptions on 117 targets (76.1% catch rate) for 1,428 yards and 9 touchdowns. He almost owns a 50% air yardage share on this team and is averaging 109.8 receiving yards per game. He holds 12.21 yards per target, 16.04 yards per receptions with a 32.7% target share. He’s the first-read on 43.5% of passing downs and Darnold owns a 134.8 passer rating when he targets JSN. He leads the entire NFL with 4.08 yards per route run. The matchup is good too, especially without IND’s top cornerbacks. IND is allowing the 3rd most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers per game and JSN has destroyed man coverage this season - ranked 1st in yards per route run vs man (4.34). It’s over or pass!

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 95.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Rashid Shaheed
There is life! We finally got a productive game about SEA’s deadline acquisition. He finished with 4 receptions on 5 targets for 67 yards. He also had an incredible 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. It takes time to build chemistry so maybe we are seeing the breakout. Shaheed is a good player, so we should see more involvement that doesn’t include 3-yard end arounds. Shaheed has been good against man coverage in the past, but I want to see a little more before I invest. I’ll pass.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE A.J. Barner
Barner was relatively quiet last week with 3 catches on 4 targets for 27 yards. This season Barner has 40 receptions (2nd on team) on 48 targets (83.3% catch rate) for 386 yards and 4 touchdowns. He plays mostly inline (84.6%) and is averaging 9.7 yards per reception and 4.8 yards after the catch per reception. He holds a 2.4% drop rate and 5.5 aDOT. The matchup is interesting for Barner. IND has allowed the 4th most targets (8.69), 5th most receptions (6.31) and 3rd most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. Additionally, IND has allowed 5th most receiving yards to inline tight ends. You can back Barner here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

What do we make of this game? 44-year old Philip Rivers against one of the best defenses in the league. It certainly can't go well, but 13.5 points is a lot. I looked at other angles, but none stuck out. 14.5 team total for IND is just a hair too low for my liking. SEA could score 30 points on their own, so under 42.5 doesn't look great. I think you have to lay the 13.5 if you are making a play. With IND missing both of their top cornerbacks and starting a guy that just got off the couch for the first time in five years should allow SEA to crush if they push the envelope.

Best Bet Seahawks -13.5 -120
Lean Colts TT 'U' 14.5 -120
Score Prediction Colts 13 Seahawks 30

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: Zach Charbonnet -108
He continues to be a preferred option near the goal line and it seems like he’s the mop up crew if SEA is blowing a team out. It’s a way to get him work, but also make sure Walker stays healthy. It’s hard not to think he’ll get the opportunity as almost 14-point favorites here. We could get early usage in the redzone or later in the game when it's out of reach.

Longshot (IND): Michael Pittman +490
This is a wild price for a player that has 7 touchdowns this season and almost had his 8th last week. He has 12 redzone targets on the season and given questions around Rivers' arm, he'll likely be looking more towards a possession wide receiver like Pittman. A passing game flow should be there as 13.5 dogs so we might get oursleves a garbage time touchdown at a really nice price.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: Tyler Warren +2500
Warren finds himself in a nice matchup and could easily be a go to player for Rivers' out of the gate as he tries to settle in. SEA is allowing the 3rd most targets (8.85), 2nd most receptions (6.77) and 2nd most yards (71.8) to tight ends. They have been much more stingy in terms of touchdowns allowed to the position (8th lowest), but I think Warren's usage could warrant some endzone targets.

Longshot (IND): Rashid Shaheed +1300
He's alive! He's is starting to show some chemistry with Darnold and is also an explsoive player in the return game. Not to mention they like to use him in the reverse game too. Without their top two cornerbacks, Ward and Gardner, they could be more open to explsoive plays.

 Parlay #1 (Colts) +294
Jonathan Taylor under 76.5 Rush Yards
Tyler Warren 4+ Receptions
Philip Rivers 150+ Passing Yards

Parlay #2 (Seahawks) +315
Zach Charbonnet over 37.5 Rush Yards
Zach Charbonnet TD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 80+ Receiving Yards

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love has been volatile week to week, but his efficiency spikes against man-heavy defenses like Denver. The Broncos deploy man coverage at a 34.1% rate (3rd-highest), and Love has historically been more decisive and aggressive against man looks, where pre-snap reads simplify and his downfield willingness shows up. Denver’s pressure rate forces quicker throws, but Love has averaged 8.0+ YPA against man this season and has been far more willing to push the ball outside the numbers when defenses don’t sit in zone. The concern is volume — Green Bay is still comfortable leaning on the run — but Denver has allowed quarterbacks to clear modest yardage totals even in lower-attempt games due to explosive plays off broken coverage. If the Packers are forced to keep pace, Love’s efficiency gives him a path to production without needing 40 attempts.

Suggested Play:

'O' 222.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs continues to operate as the clear early-down and goal-line back, and this matchup sets up well for efficiency rather than volume. Denver’s zone rate is one of the highest in the league (59.7%, 30th), and Jacobs has consistently been more effective against zone concepts, where he can press the line and punish cutback lanes. The Broncos have struggled to limit yards after contact and have allowed opposing backs to sustain long drives even when explosive runs aren’t there. Jacobs’ touch count stays stable regardless of game script, and Green Bay is comfortable riding him near the stripe rather than asking Love to force throws in tight areas. If the Packers score multiple times, Jacobs is still the most likely player to be involved on the ground.

Suggested Play:

'O' 61.5 Rush Yards (-115)

WR Christian Watson

Christian Watson draws one of the clearest matchup advantages on the slate. Against man coverage, he’s been dominant, posting 170 receiving yards on just 63 routes with an elite 0.81 points per route run, and Denver’s heavy man usage feeds directly into his strength as a vertical separator. Watson’s target rate jumps against man, and Love has shown no hesitation throwing him contested balls downfield. The Broncos have struggled to protect against speed on the outside, and Watson’s ability to win early in routes gives him access to chunk plays without needing double-digit targets. This is the type of matchup where one or two completions can flip his entire stat line.

Suggested Play: 

'O' 24.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

WR Romeo Doubs

Romeo Doubs operates as the steady chain-mover in this offense, and his role remains stable regardless of coverage. Against man, he’s logged 102 routes with a 23.5% target rate, showing Love’s trust on intermediate concepts and timing routes. Denver’s aggressive coverage opens space on in-breaking routes, where Doubs does most of his damage. While his ceiling isn’t built on explosive plays, his snap share and route participation keep his floor intact, especially if Denver commits extra resources to Watson on the outside. If Love spreads the ball rather than forcing deep shots, Doubs becomes the natural beneficiary, but this shouldnt revolve a deep shot in this specific matchup.

Suggested Play: 

'U' 16.5 Yard Longest Reception (-110)

QB Bo Nix

Bo Nix shut up alllllll the critics about his poor completion percentage this season when he completed 81.6% (31/38), resulting in 212 passing yards. This week, he'll get the Packers' defence that allows the 12th most completions (21.6) and the 14th most pass attempts (33), but the 7th fewest passing yards (201.4) and the 10th fewest passing TDs (1.3) per game to opposing QBs. The Packers run the 3rd-most zone coverage (79.1%) and the 7th-most Cover 2. Against zone coverage, Nix has faced the most dropbacks, resulting in the 7th-lowest completion percentage (64.7%), the 5th-lowest yards per attempt (6.22), and the 11th-lowest QBR (81.4). Against Cover 2, Nix has faced the 5th most dropbacks, resulting in the 5th lowest completion percentage (66.7%), the 4th lowest yards per attempt (5.72) and the 12th lowest QBR (80.3). On the season as a whole, Nix's completion percentage hasn't been great, but over the past three weeks, he's made impressive strides, finishing with 24+ completions in all three games. In what is expected to be a tight game against the Packers, Nix will need to be throwing more often, leading to more completions this week.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix o23.5 Completions (-105)

RB RJ Havey

Harvey finally had a solid day on the ground after taking over as the Broncos starter. He rushed for 75 yards on 17 attempts and found the ends zone on the ground. Through the air, Harvey caught all six of his targets for 25 receiving yards. This week, he'll get a difficult Packers defence, who struggle to limit volume but excels in shutting backs down with the ball in their hands. The Packers allow the 11th-most rush attempts (22.7) but the 14th-fewest rushing yards (89.1). Through the air, Green Bay allow the 8th most receptions (4.9), but the 9th fewest receiving yards (27.8) to opposing RBs. The Packers run the mostly zone concept (47.5%). When in zone, the Packers are allowing 4.06 yards per carry. Against zone concept, Harvey has struggled, averaging just a 3.07 yards per carry. However, we like what Harvey can offer in the receiving game this week. He has logged 3+ receptions in three straight weeks and over 20+ receiving yards in four of the last five weeks.

Suggested Pick:

RJ Harvey 20+ Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton caught six of his 10 targets for 62 receiving yards last week, exactly matching his receiving yard total from the week prior against the Washington Commanders. This week, he gets the Packers, who allow the 14th fewest receptions (10.8) and the 10th fewest receiving yards (127.8) per game to opposing WRs. While that doesn't look like a great matchup for the Broncos receiver, the Packers have actually been much worse over the past two weeks, allowing Jameson Williams to go for 144 receiving yards and rookie Luther Burden to tally 67 receiving yards. Against zone coverage, Sutton has caught 40 of his 61 targets for 526 receiving yards, leading the team with a 16.7% target share. Against Cover 2, Sutton has caught eight of his 12 targets for 89 receiving yards, again leading the team with a 17.4% target share. Decent numbers, but he actually sees his catch rate (64.9%), yards per reception (13.1) and yards per route run (1.52) decrease in zone coverage compared to man. Sutton does most of his work on the outside, where the Packers are targeted at the 10th-highest rate, allow the 10th-highest catch rate (64.4%) but the 12th-lowest yards per reception (12.68). Given their recent struggles, especially against two WRs who primarily line up on the outside, we like Sutton to get his receptions line for the second straight week.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton o4.5 Receptions (-110)

WR Pat Bryant

Move over, Troy Franklin, it appears you've been surpassed in the WR room by rookie Pat Bryant. Franklin played just 25% of the snaps last week, while Bryant ran the second most of the WRs, playing 47.2%. Bryant turned that into four catches on five targets for 32 receiving yards. Against zone coverage, Bryant has caught 20 of his 30 targets for 277 receiving yards – he has just two receptions for 28 receiving yards against man coverage. Against Cover 2, Bryant has six receptions on eight targets for 71 receiving yards. Bryant sees his yards per reception (14.8) and yards per route run (1.49) increase in zone coverage compared to man coverage. Bryant does most of his work from the slot. Against slot receivers, the Packers are targeted at the 2nd-lowest rate, allowing the 4th-highest catch rate (75.6%), but the lowest yards per reception (8.03). While it might seem funny to add Bryant but not play anything on him, but we want to just see it one more time before we trust him.

Suggested pick:

Pass

TE Evan Engram

We all knew it was too good to be true. Engram put in a stinker following his best career game as a Bronco, turning his two receptions into just eight receiving yards. The Packers struggle to limit volume to TEs, allowing the 9th-most receptions (5.9) per game, but have done a good job of limiting production, allowing the 7th-fewest receiving yards (45.5) per game. Against zone coverage this season, Engram has caught 35 of his 50 targets for 289 receiving yards and a solid 14.6% target share. Against Cover 2, Engram has caught just three of his four targets for 33 receiving yards. Engram sees his catch rate (72.5%) and yards per route run (1.41) increase in zone coverage compared to man. The Broncos TE often lines up inline, to which the Packers are targeted at the 5th-highest rate, but allows the 14th-lowest catch rate (77.6%) and the lowest yards per reception (7.0). I can't believe I'm saying this, but we're going back to Engram to get heavily targeted in this matchup. Will he be able to turn those targets into anything? Who knows. But it is a decent matchup for Engram to catch some balls.

Suggested pick:

Evan Engram o3.5 Receptions (+100)

Best Bet 
Lean 
Score Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Packers) Christian Watson Anytime TD +185 

Christian Watson is set up as the primary explosive and red-zone mismatch against a Denver defense that leans heavily on man coverage (34.1%, 3rd-highest). That’s where Watson has done his best work all season, posting 170 receiving yards on just 63 routes vs man with an elite 0.81 points per route run. Love has consistently trusted Watson on isolation routes, especially fades, crossers, and deep overs, and Denver’s corners have struggled to handle speed receivers without safety help. If the Packers get into scoring position through chunk plays or play-action, Watson is the most likely receiver to be targeted for a touchdown rather than sustained red-zone volume.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Packers) Josh Jacobs First TD +410

Josh Jacobs remains the clear first option near the goal line, regardless of game script. Green Bay has shown a strong tendency to establish physicality early, and Denver’s defense has allowed efficient early-down rushing against zone concepts (59.7% zone rate, 30th). Jacobs consistently handles the opening drive carries and short-yardage work, making him the most likely Packer to convert the first scoring opportunity if the offense sustains an early drive. Even in games where Love throws well, Green Bay has leaned on Jacobs inside the 10 rather than risking tight-window throws.

Longshot:

 Parlay 1 (Packers) +545

Jordan Love 'O' 222.5 Pass Yards

Josh Jacobs ATD
Romeo Doubs 'U' 16.5 Yard Longest Reception

Parlay 2: (Broncos) +200 odds on bet365

RJ Harvey 3+ Receptions

Courtland Sutton 4+ Receptions

Evan Engram 3+ Receptions

QB Cam Ward
Cam Ward continues to have an underwhelming season statistically. It’s tough to truly get a read on what type of player he may become given how difficult the schedule has been, along with struggles on the offensive line. In terms of EPA per pass allowed, Ward has faced CLE (6th best against the pass), JAC (5th), SEA (4th) and HOU (1st) over the last 4 weeks. Yikes. He’ll finally get a much friendlier matchup this week against SF, who ranks 25th in EPA per pass allowed. This will be his best matchup since week 6 against LV (26th). On the season, Ward has completed 260 passes on 440 attempts (59.1% completion rate) with 9 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. After getting a few weeks of Cam using his legs, he only has 3 rushes in the last two weeks. He’s thrown for 5.61 yards per attempt with a 74.9 passer rating and 2.0% turnover-worthy throw rate. The 5.7% drop rate and 38.8% pressure rate hasn’t helped the cause, but he faces a 49er’s defense that ranks just 26th in pass rush grading. The 49ers have been a pass funnel this season, which sets up well for Ward who ranks 6th among QB’s in pass attempts per game. SF has allowed the 2nd most receptions per game this season. After fading Ward often this season, this looks like one of the better spots to back him.
Suggested Picks
‘O’ 190.5 Passing Yards (-115)
‘O’ 0.5 Passing TD’s (-200)
200+ Pass Yards (+112)
225+ Pass Yards (+205)

RB Tony Pollard
Pollard has broken out the last couple weeks after struggling most of the season. Last week he had 25 carries for 161 rushing yards (career high) and two touchdowns. The week prior he ran for 60 yards on 10 carries against the Jaguars. What’s changed? Starting center, Lloyd Cushenberry, has been out the last two weeks and veteran Corey Levin has stepped. It’s made a major difference and Levin will draw the start again this week. On the season Pollard has rushed 175 times for 743 yards, averaging 4.25 yards per carry and 57.2 rushing yards per game. He holds a 3.4% explosive run rate, 49.7% success rate and just under 2 yards after contact per attempt. SF is better against the run, ranking 15th best in EPA per rush. They’ve allowed the 11th fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs per game (86.4). They have been a little more susceptible of late, allowing 4.5 yards per carry (11th highest) and 1.58 yards before contact (8th) over the past five weeks. The likely game script doesn’t help, but it’s been that way all season. With TEN needing the run to take pressure off of Ward, the volume still should be there. I’ll believe in the O-line changes this week and grab the over on a low line.
Suggested Picks
‘O’ 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Tyjae Spears
Spears continues to work more in the passing game than rushing. On the season, he has 47 attempts for 177 yards, averaging 3.77 yards per carry with only a 2.1% explosive run rate. He has a 44.7% success rate and 1.77 yards after contact per carry. Last week he was tied with Gunnar Helm with 6 receptions. This season Spears has 30 receptions on 34 targets for 201 yards. SF has been more susceptible this season to passes to backs. They have allowed the 2nd most targets (6.92), most receptions (5.77) and 8th most receiving yards (35.9). Ward is certainly willing to check it down too, with a 11.6% checkdown rate in 2025. This might be a good spot to back Spears as a pass catcher.
Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (+115)

WR Elic Ayomanor
It was a classic up and down game for Elic Ayomanor last week with a nice move to get open for the touchdown, paired with a drop and nothing else on 3 targets. Epic primarily plays outside (81.6%) and on the season he has 30 catches on 64 targets (46.9% catch rate) for 353 yards and three touchdowns. He holds a 16.1% target share averaging 29.4 receiving yards per game. Elic has 5.52 yards per target and 11.77 yards per reception with a startling 10.9% drop rate. The matchup doesn’t make Ayomanor more appealing. SF is allowing the 9th fewest receiving yards to outside wide receivers per game (87.5), 6th lowest yards per target (7.34) and 3rd fewest yards per reception (11.37). However, they have allowed the 9th highest catch rate (64.5%). I need to see more consistency from Ayomanor to back him. I’ll fade him here until I see more.
Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-170)
‘U’ 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Chimere Dike
Dike has been the most consistent pass catcher of the bunch in an anemic offense. He comes off a game where he led the team in targets (8) with 5 catches for 24 yards and a touchdown. Dike has 34 catches on 53 targets (64.2% catch rate) for 284 yards, averaging only 21.8 receiving yards per game. He holds a 12% target share, 5.36 yards per target and 8.35 yards per reception. He works primarily out of the slot, which is key here (70.8%). San Francisco has allowed 9.3 yards per target (2nd highest) and a 9.5% touchdown rate (4th) to slot wide receivers. Of receptions allowed to wide receivers, almost 45% have come out of the slot which is the second highest rate in the league. To temper expectations, SF runs zone at the 10th highest rate which Dike has struggled more against. However, if we like Ward to throw it makes sense the Dike would benefit in a good matchup.
Suggested Picks
‘O’ 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
40+ Receiving Yards (+143)
50+ Receiving Yards (+240)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
Chig is coming off an underwhelming performance against the Browns with just two catches on two targets for 20 yards. Chig still outsnaps rookie Gunnar Helm, but Helm is also involved (20 pass routes vs 12). Losing Warner was a huge blow for this 49er defense, which has made them more susceptible to the tight end position. Since his loss, SF has allowed 5.6 receptions (10th most) and about 57 receiving yards (10th) per game to tight ends. This season Chig has 41 receptions on 52 targets (78.8% reception rate) for 426 yards (leads team) without a touchdown to show for it. He holds 10.4 yards per reception, a 5.5 aDOT and 5.5 yards after the catch per reception - mostly mediocre numbers. They like to move him around the field with a 40.3% inline snap rate, while running 13.0% out wide and 45.5% out of the slot. This matchup sets up well for Chig, but the presence of Helm makes it less appealing.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115) - LEAN

QB Brock Purdy

Purdy draws a matchup that looks efficient on paper but not necessarily explosive from a volume standpoint. Tennessee plays zone on 72.8% of snaps, and Purdy has been comfortable carving those looks up with timing throws and play-action rather than pushing tempo. That usually leads to high completion rates but capped attempt totals, especially when San Francisco controls game flow. The Titans haven’t forced shootouts often, and with Christian McCaffrey healthy, the 49ers are far more likely to lean run-heavy once they establish a lead. Purdy can still be effective without big counting stats, and San Francisco doesn’t ask him to throw aggressively if the run game is working.

Suggested Play: 

'U' 240.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Christian McCaffrey

CMC remains the engine of this offense and has a good matchup in this one against Tennessee’s zone structure. Zone-heavy fronts widen gaps and create favorable angles for backs who can press the line and cut decisively, which is exactly McCaffrey’s strength. Tennessee has struggled with backs who can punish light boxes and also hurt them as receivers when linebackers drop into coverage. San Francisco consistently funnels early-down work and red-zone touches through McCaffrey, and this matchup sets up for sustained drives rather than quick scores. His workload is secure regardless of game script.

Suggested Play: 

'O' 62.5 Rush Yards (-115)

WR Jauan Jennings

Jennings is in a good spot to feast on some soft coverage tendencies that the Titans typically are in.  Zone defenses often leave soft spots between linebackers and safeties, and Jennings has been one of San Francisco’s most reliable chain-movers working those areas. He doesn’t need deep targets to contribute, and his usage on third downs and in condensed formations keeps his involvement steady. Tennessee has allowed receivers in this role to pile up short and intermediate catches, even if the overall passing volume stays modest.

Suggested Play: 

'O' 4.5 Receptions (+105)

TE George Kittle

George Kittle faces a defense that has struggled with tight ends structurally, but this isn’t always a matchup that leads to huge raw volume. Against zone-heavy teams, Kittle’s efficiency stays strong, but San Francisco often spreads the ball around and leans on the run once they get inside scoring range. If McCaffrey dominates early downs and red-zone touches, Kittle can still contribute without piling up targets. His upside remains real, but the floor is tied closely to game script.

Suggested Play: 

'U' 4.5 Receptions (+115)

Best Bet 
Lean 
Score Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (49ers) Jauan Jennings Anytime TD +170

Jauan Jennings profiles as a strong anytime touchdown option in this matchup because of how San Francisco attacks zone-heavy defenses near the goal line. Tennessee plays zone on 72.8% of snaps, which often forces defenders to pass off routes in tight spaces — an area where Jennings consistently thrives. He’s one of Brock Purdy’s most trusted targets on third downs and inside the 10-yard line, especially on slants, quick outs, and sit routes against zone. Jennings isn’t a volume-dependent scorer; his touchdowns tend to come on high-leverage snaps where the defense is focused on McCaffrey and George Kittle. With Tennessee prioritizing keeping eyes on the backfield, Jennings frequently ends up isolated against a linebacker or a zone window that opens quickly. One clean read in the red zone is all he needs.

Longshot: (Titans) Chimere Dike +375
He works primarily out of the slot, which is key here (70.8%). San Francisco has allowed 9.3 yards per target (2nd highest) and a 9.5% touchdown rate (4th) to slot wide receivers. Of receptions allowed to wide receivers, almost 45% have come out of the slot which is the second highest rate in the league. They also use him in the redzone as a runner and he's already one of the best kick returners in the league!

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (49ers) Christian McCaffery First TD +230

Christian McCaffrey is the most logical first touchdown option given how San Francisco scripts its opening drives and how Tennessee defends early downs. The 49ers consistently open games by establishing McCaffrey between the tackles and forcing defenses to respect the run before expanding the playbook. Tennessee’s zone-heavy structure often leads to lighter boxes early, which gives McCaffrey favorable looks right out of the gate. San Francisco also prefers to finish early drives on the ground when possible, limiting risk and keeping control of game flow. McCaffrey dominates early red-zone usage, and if the 49ers reach scoring position on their first or second drive, he’s overwhelmingly the most likely player to get the ball. Whether it’s a straight carry, an outside zone run, or a short receiving score off play-action, McCaffrey is typically the first option near the goal line.

Longshot: (Titans) Gunnar Helm +3510
Helm hasn't seen the field as much as starter Chig Okonkwo, but he's seen really good usage when he's in there. He and Cam have shown chemistry from day 1. Despite Chig being the primary tight end, Helm out targets him 6 to 1 in the redzone. A nice price for a guy that has become a primary target in the redzone.

QB Bryce Young

I've been waiting on Bryce Young since this prop was dropped earlier this week. The Panthers starting quarterback has Pass Completions line of 18.5 this Sunday. Outside of two massive outlier games this season, where he threw for 328 yards (@ ARI) and 448 yards (@ ATL), Young has failed to complete 19 passes outside of a Week 5 hook vs MIA. This season, the 3rd year QB out of Alabama has had games of 18, 35, 16, 18, 19, 17, 15, 11, 17, 31, 18, and 15 completed passes. Young does not discriminate in home vs away games either, as he's gone under this in 4 of 5 games played at Bank of America Stadium. However, it's how Bryce Young has performed over his 3-year career against New Orleans that gives this play such great value. In 5 games vs the Saints, Young is averaging just 149.2 pass YPG, while completing just 54.0% passes to go with 2 TDs and 4 INTs for an overall passer rating of only 61.1. Most importantly as it relates to this prop, Young has completed 17, 16, 13, 13 and 22 passes in 5 career starts vs NO. And despite the Saints 3-10 record, they have allowed the 6th fewest completions to opposing QBs this season (18.1). Since week 2, the Saints have held 9 of 11 opposing QBs to 18 or less completions. This includes, Baker Mayfield (14), Tua Tagovailoa (12), Kirk Cousins (16), Bryce Young (17), Baker Mayfield (15), Caleb Williams (15), Drake Maye (18), Josh Allen (16) and Sam Darnold (14). We have a total of just 40.5 points today and the Panthers run defense has been horrendous for the last six straight weeks, so New Orleans will be running the ball a lot today.

Suggested Bet:

Bryce Young u18.5 Completions (-119)

RB Rico Dowdle

We're going to see a heavy dose of the ground attack in this game by both teams. I discussed my liking for Devin Neal on the New Orleans side of the of the ball, and now I'll tell youwhere the value is with Rico Dowdle. Despite losing by 10 points back in Week 10, Dowdle carried the ball 18 times. Now, I should point out that Chubba Hubbard is back in the fold here, but I expect both of them to see double-digit carries in this game. Rico rush attempts line sits at 12.5, and he has cleared this in 7 of his last 9 games, with 18+ in 4 of his L5. The Saints are allowing the 2nd most rush attempts per game to opposing RBs (26.5), while having the 5th lowest Neutral Pass Rate in the league. While Chubba Hubbard had a solid game last week, this is still a line Dowdle can hit. With the Saints coming off a big emotional win over Tampa Bay, this is a great spot for the Panthers to control this game at home, coming off a bye week. I also like Rico to hit his Long Rush prop of o12.5. New Orleans has been a major run funnel in recent weks, and as I've made it clear, it's not going to get any easier for them agains CAR who has the lowest pass rate over expected in the NFL, and this means heavy run upside our way. Under the assumption that he gets 13+ carries here, asking for one big productive run is more than doable. In his only game against the Saints this season he had 18 carries with a long rush of 14 yards.

Suggested Bet:

Rico Dowdle o12.5 Rush Attempts (-154)

Rico Dowdle o13.5 Longest Rush (-125)

WR Tetaroia McMillan

Tetaroia McMillan caught 5 passes for 60 yards the first time these two teams met. However, he hasn’t topped 43 yards in either of his last two games, where he's recorded just a combined 3 receptions. McMillan has posted 60 yards or less in 6 of his 13 games this season, and while the Saints are just 3-10, their pass defense has been solid all year. New Orleans is allowing just 182.6 PYG (6th fewest) and 10.8 YPR (14th). The Panthers WR has been overly reliant on big plays all season, but especially over the past few weeks, where he's had one reception of at least 29 yards or more in three consecutive games. This is importnat to know, because he still hit the under in two of those matchps. The main thing to point out here is this is going to be a game that is controlled by the running attack of the both teams. This a spot where both the intangibles and and game script are unfavorable for McMillan.

Suggested Bet:

Tetaroia McMillan u57.5 Rec Yards (-113)

WR Jalen Coker

Jalen Coker is coming off his best game of the season, where he hauled in 4 balls on 6 targets for 67 yards a TD. Coker has outperformed Xavier Legette in 3 of past 4 weeks now, and he's officially solidified himself as the WR2 within the Panthers offense. Normally, this would be a nice buy low spot, but then I'm reminded that Bryce Young is his quarterback. I'm also not confident backing him in a game that is likely to be dominated by the run on both sides.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

QB Tyler Shough

Tyler Shough has performed way better than we could have ever anticipated, and he has been quite effective with his legs. However, this a great week to fade his rushing yards prop of 20.5 yards. We are getting an inflated line here because the Saints QB caught Tampa Bay off guard last week. This Sunday he's facing a Carolina defense that allows the fewest rushing YPG (10.2) to opposing quarterbacks. In fact, the Panthers have allowed held QB's to under 20 yards or less in 12 of 13 games this year. The only one QB this entire season to run for 20 yards or more vs CAR was Kyler Murray of Arizona. The Panthers defense also ranks 31st in pressure rate. Shough has not scrambled one time when he has been pressured since becoming the starter in New Orleans. This is a game where he will be able to operate under a clean pocket, so he won't need to use his legs much. He went under this line in his first 4 games before last week's game against the Bucs. The last time Shough faced the Panthers he finished with 3 carries for -4 yards. Carolina simply does not give many yards up in this scenario. They've heled Justin Fields, Josh Allen and Drake Maye to under 20 yards this season, so they shouldn't have any issue doing the same with Tyler Shough.

Suggested Bet:

Tyler Shough u20.5 Rush Yards (-118)

RB Devin Neal

Devin Neal turned 20 touches into 84 yards, whild scoring his first career NFL touchdown in week 14 as the Saints stunned Tampa Bay on the road.Neal racked up 20 touches for 84 yards and his first NFL touchdown on Sunday against the Bucs. Alvin Kamara has once again been ruled out this Sunday, so Neal should see a full workload here. Over the past 3 weeks, Devin Neal has seen 71%, 78% and 80% of the backfield touches, recording games of 61, 89, and 84 yards. THis is a really nice spot for the Saints RB as he faces a Carolina rush defense that has struggled to stop the run over its past 6 games. During this stretch, the Panthers have allowed 5.3 YPC (29th in NFL) with a run of 10+ yards on 14% of backfield attempts to opposing RBs. The Saints handed the ball to its backfield 32 times the last time they faced Carolina. We are expecting a very low scoring game this week, and with a rookie behind center, New Orleans will try to control this game as much as possible. 

Suggested Bet:

Devin Neal 50+ Rush Yards (-162)

WR Chris Olave

Chris Olave has been playing through a back injury the last two weeks, and it’s clearly impacted his production. From the beginning of the season through Week 12, Olave had just one game where he didn't post at least 50 yards receving (WK 4 at BUF, 3-20-1). But over the past two weeks, the Saints star WR has recorded games of just 47 and 30 yards. He's also caught just 4 and 3 balls respectively in weeks 13 and 14. In addition to playing through an injury, Olave has also seen a reduction in volume. With Spencer Rattler under center, he was averaging 6.5 receptions per game, but with Tyler Shough this number dipped down to 4.8 catches per game. Now, Olave has to face a stingy Carolina defense who has been very stingy against perimeter receivers, allowing only 85 YPG (6th fewest in NFL). To make matters worse, the Panthers will be getting their top CB Jaycee Horn back for this game. The only silver lining for Olave is he's still getting rougly a 25% target share. But as I said earlier, we are not expecting a lot of points in this game. New Orleans is going to lean on Devin Neal and the backfield to control the pace of this game. CAR also is one of the worst teams in defending the TE position so that's also going to take away from Chris Olave's production in this game. We're going to need at least 35+ passes out of Tyler Shough to get him to where he needs to be. There are just way too many obstacles Chris Olave is going to have to navigate around today, and I don't like how he's been trending lately as he's dealing with this back injury.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Olave u5.5 Receptions (-125)

WR Devaugn Vele

Devaugn Vele collected 3 of 5 targets in Week 14 for 40 yards receiving. Over the past 3 weeks Vele has recorded 37, 93 and 40 yards, but most importantly he's seen 5, 8 and 7 targets during this span. Since Rashid Shaheed was traded, Vele has been a mainstay as the #2 wide receiver for New Orleans as evidenced by his being on the field for 91.4% of the team's dropbacks. Vele caught just 1 of 3 targets for 15 yards against Carolina in his first matchup, but that was back in Week 10. I still have concerns with what could be a bit of an inflated receiving yards line, but there is value here in his reception line of 3.5. The books are clearly concerned about losing money on Vele here. He's ALT 3+ receptions is at -225, but his 3.5 line is +104. This futher supplants the concern surrounding Chris Olave's back injury. He and Juwan Johnson are going to draw most of the attention away from Vele, which should give him several opportunties to yield production today.

Suggested Bet:

Devaugn Vele 2-Pick Parlay (-131)

3+ Receptions 

30+ Receiving Yards 

TE Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson had season-lows in both snap share (53.0%) and routes ran (58.3%) in Week 14, but he still caught all 4 of his targets for 38 yards with 2.71 YPR. A large part of this can be attributed to the Saints running 59% of 12-personnel last Sunday. However, the poor weather is most likely the main contributing factor for this. As far as Johnson's numbers last week, this has been the narrative all season long for the Saints TE. We've seen this before, and I'm not going to fade Johnson because of it. He's had back-to-back weeks of 8 & 3 targets, 2 & 7 targets, 4 & 7 targets and 9 & 4 targets. He's all over the place, but the Saints have been consistent is using him to take advantage of teams who struggle defending the tight end position, and that's what we have here this week when Johnson faces a Panthers defense who is allowing 63.8 receiving YPG to opposing tight ends (6th most in NFL). Oddly enough, they rank in the middle of the pack (16th) in receptions allowed per game at 5.4. This is the largest disparity in the league, and it backs up Johnson's 4-catch, 92 yard effort the last time these two teams met in Week 10. This is a great spot to target both of his receiving props, but I especially like his yardage here, as Carolina is giving up 8.8 YPT (30th in NFL) to the TE position.

Suggested Bet:

Juwan Johnson o38.5 Rec Yards

Anytime TD

Best Pick: Jalen Coker (Panthers): +300

When Jalen Coker faced the Rams in Week 13, he recorded his third-highest routes run per dropback, and two weeks later, he finds himself third on the team with a 75.2% participation rate on all dropbacks. Last Sunday, Coker hauled in 4 of 6 targets for 74 yards, while scoring his first touchdown of the season on a 33-yard strike from Bryce Young. He now faces a New Orleans defense that is giving up 11.5 YPT to receivers aligned out wide.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: Rico Dowdle (Panthers) +650

With both of these teams ranking in the bottom five in scoring, there are a couple of reasons why I really like Rico Dowdle in this spot. Now, I know Dowdle hasn’t scored in three weeks, but he’s scored six touchdowns this season, and the first time Rico faced the Saints, he scored the first touchdown, which marked the second time he's done this. But there's one more reason why I think this spot favors Rico Dowdle. New Orleans is averaging just 2.0 points in the first quarter this season (worst in the NFL), so this gives the Panthers an edge to find the end zone first, and Rico Dowdle is tied for the team lead in touchdowns scored. 

Parlay (Saints/Panthers) +310  DK

ALT Under 47.5 Points 

Dowdle/Hubbard (CAR) 100+ Combined Rush Yards

Devin Neal (NO) 50+ Rush Yards

Juwan Johnson (NO) 40+ Receiving Yards

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff draws a good coverage situation against a Rams defense that leans heavily on zone (78.8%, 5th-highest) and rarely plays man (16.0%, 28th). Goff has consistently been more efficient against zone looks, where he’s been good with timing throws. Los Angeles has struggled to limit explosive passing plays out of zone this season, and Goff’s comfort operating play-action and intermediate crossers lines up well against their coverage tendencies. Detroit also continues to throw at a high rate inside the red zone when drives stall, giving Goff multiple paths to production even if the game script stays balanced

Suggested Play: 

'O' 256.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

The very explosive Jahmyr Gibbs remains the most dynamic player in Detroit’s offense and should see plenty of space against a Rams defense that invites checkdowns and horizontal throws by sitting in zone. Gibbs has been heavily involved in both the run game and passing game against zone-heavy opponents, and Los Angeles has struggled to close quickly on backs in space. The Rams’ lighter boxes also open up chunk-play opportunities on outside runs and draws, where Gibbs’ burst shows up. Even if David Montgomery mixes in near the goal line, Gibbs’ usage between the 20s and in the passing game keeps his touch floor intact.

Suggested Play:

'O' 119.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

St. Brown is in an ideal matchup against a defense that lives in zone and struggles to contain elite route runners working the middle of the field. Against zone coverage this season, St. Brown has commanded a massive target share and consistently moved the chains on option routes, slants, and sit routes. The Rams have had difficulty matching slot receivers through zone handoffs, and Detroit will almost certainly design looks to get St. Brown isolated on linebackers and safeties. His involvement is game-script proof and spikes on third down and in scoring territory.

Suggested Play:

'O' 6.5 Receptions (-150)

WR Jameson Williams

Jameson Williams lines up well for a touchdown in this matchup because of how Detroit’s offense attacks heavy zone coverage. The Rams play zone at a top-five rate (78.8%), which has consistently created voids on deep crossers, posts, and shot plays off play-action — exactly where Williams is most dangerous. Against zone looks this season, Williams has been extremely efficient, producing 285 receiving yards on just 12 catches versus man and 517 yards on 33 catches versus zone, showing that Detroit is actively scheming him touches against soft coverage rather than relying purely on contested targets. His 14.7% target rate vs zone doesn’t jump off the page, but his explosive usage does — he averages well over 15 yards per catch, and a large portion of his targets come 15+ yards downfield or on designed misdirection plays near the red zone.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+170)

QB Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford is playing, arugably the best football of his career this season in St. Louis. The veteran quarterback ranks first in passer rating (113.7), 4th in passing yards (3,354) and 7th in YPA (7.8), all while posting a TD to INT ratio of 35:4. Stafford is also the league's highest graded quarterback, and while he has only exceeded his line of 280.5 passing yards in three games this season, Sundays matchup against Detroit is the perfect spot for him to have a huge passing day. Since their Week 8 bye, the Lions are giving up the 3rd most passing yards (1,500), 6th-most YPP (7.9), and 2nd most passing plays of 15+ yards (39). With an over/under set at 54.5 points, this game carries one of the highest totals the NFL has seen this season and this is a massive tilt for both sides. Most importantly, Stafford will be playing on his home turf, where he is averaging an astounding 44.9 more passing YPG than when on the road this season. I'm expecting a big game from Stafford in Week 15 against his former team.

Suggested Bet:

Matthew Stafford o280.5 Pass Yards

RB Kyren Williams

This is going to seem like a rather generic play, but I'm not confident running either side of Kyren Williams' rushing props for a number of reasons. First, we have a pass heavy script in play for today, along with a huge point total expected. One may think this should equal a lot of yards for Kyren, but I've seen both Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff get involved in too many shootouts where the running game just gets totally abandoned. Williams will also be facing a Detroit team who is allowing the 10th fewest rushing YPG (102.7) to opposing running backs. With all of that said, I think Kyren Williams an atomic bomc of a play for an Anytime TD. The Lions have allowed nine opposing rushers to score at least 1+ touchdown this season. In addition, they have surrenderred the 5th most touchdowns on the ground (0.7 per game). In a Rams offense that consistently funnels scoring chances through its lead back, Kyren Williams is usually the first option when drives reach goal-to-go. Even if the ground game stalls, his involvement as a receiver keeps multiple ways to find the end zone open.

Suggested Bet:

Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-110)

WR Puka Nacua

Despite Amon-Ra St. Brown on the other side of the field, Puka Nacua should pace Sunday's game in receiving production as the Lions provide Nacua with a perfect matchup. First, let's set the tone. Among 114 WRs and TEs with at least 200 routes this year, Nacua leads all receivers in targets per route run (0.38), is tied for 1st in receptions per game (7.8), 2nd receiving YPG (98.8), 2nd in YPRR (3.81), 3rd in targets per game (9.8), 5th in target share (29.3%), 5th in first-read rate (36.7%), 9th in YPT (10.1) and 19th in air yards (1047). Simply put, Nacua can absolutely barbeque even the NFL's best secondaries, and this Sunday he will face a Detroit secondary that is one of the best in the league when healthy, but this season the Lions secondary has been ravaged by injuries. Their makeshift unit has had no answers here lately for wideouts. Since Week 10, they’ve allowed a league-high 959 receiving YPG (191.8) to wide receivers. Puka is scheme proof. Nevertheless, DET coverage tendencies won't help them against Nacua. The Lions have played man coverage at an NFL-high 42.9% clip, and they’ve played single-high coverage at the 5th-highest rate (59.1%) this year. The Rams WR has 0.36 TPRR and 3.90 YPRR on 86 routes vs man coverage and 0.44 TPRR and 4.68 YPRR on 174 routes against single-high coverage. Nacua should absolutely feast here against the Lions.

Suggested Bet:

Puka Nacua o98.5 Rec Yards

WR Davante Adams

Like Puka Nacua, Davante Adams should have a big game as he enters what is expected to be a very high-scoring environment. And even though Nacua may lead St. Louis is nearly every receiving category, when push comes to shove, Adams is still Matthew Stafford's most trusted target in crucial situations. While Puka commands a ton of attention, Detroit's secondary will have to account for multiple threats simultaneously, and Davante Adams has demonstrated increased consistency as of late, posting 75+ receiving yards in 5 of his last 7 games. The Lions are also surrendering 8.1 YPPA, which will create favorable conditions for Adams' precise route running and red zone presence. Like Nacua, he's in for a big day.

Suggested Bet:

Davante Adams o61.5 Rec Yards

TE Colby Parkinson

Colby Parkinson has emerged as the clear leader in the TE department for the Rams. Since the injury to Tyler Higbee he's recorded games of 4-41-1 (vs TB), 4-27-0 (@ CAR) and 3-32-1 (@ ARI). Parkinson has also been a huge end zone threat, scoring at touchdown in 4 of the last 5 weeks. He's clearly gone from fluke to trend to problem for opposing defenses, and he this a spot where he has a high ceiling in a game where Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are going to be the top priority for Detroit's pass defense.

Suggested Bet:

Colby Parkinson o29.5 Rec Yards (-129)

Best Bet 
Lean 
Score Prediction

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Lions) Jameson Williams Anytime TD +165

Jameson Williams lines up well for an anytime touchdown in this matchup because of how Detroit’s offense attacks heavy zone coverage. The Rams play zone at a top-five rate (78.8%), which has consistently created voids on deep crossers, posts, and shot plays off play-action — exactly where Williams is most dangerous. Against zone looks this season, Williams has been extremely efficient, producing 285 receiving yards on just 12 catches versus man and 517 yards on 33 catches versus zone, showing that Detroit is actively scheming him touches against soft coverage rather than relying purely on contested targets. His 14.7% target rate vs zone doesn’t jump off the page, but his explosive usage does — he averages well over 15 yards per catch, and a large portion of his targets come 15+ yards downfield or on designed misdirection plays near the red zone.

Best Pick: Colby Parkinson (Rams) Anytime TD +240

I was clearly wrong on Colby Parkinson when I said his current string of touchdowns would not sustain and eventually fizzle out. The Rams TE has now found the end zone in 4 of the last 5 games. With the Rams offense clicking on all cylinders, he simply cannot be +250 or better to score a touchdown this week. As long as Davante Adams and Puka Nakua don't steal all the TDs, you can bank on Parkinson.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Lions) Jahmyr Gibbs First TD +455

Jahmyr Gibbs profiles well as a first-score candidate in this matchup because Detroit has consistently used him early in scripted drives to stress zone defenses horizontally. The Rams play zone at one of the highest rates in the league (78.8%), which naturally creates lighter boxes and wider rushing lanes, especially on early downs before adjustments kick in. Gibbs’ speed forces linebackers to over-pursue, and Detroit has leaned on misdirection, outside zone, and quick swing passes to get him involved immediately. Even when David Montgomery is active, Gibbs has been the back Detroit uses to spark drives and create explosives, and the Lions have shown a willingness to attack the perimeter near the goal line rather than defaulting to power runs. If Detroit reaches the red zone on its opening or second possession, Gibbs has multiple paths to score via a run or short pass.

Parlay #1 (Lions) +610

Jahmyr Gibbs ATD

Jahmyr Gibbs 'O' 41.5 Receiving Yards

Jameson Williams ATD

Parlay #2 (Rams) +385

Matthew Stafford 280+ Pass Yards

Puka Nacua 90+ Rec Yards

Davante Adams 60+ Rec Yards

Davante Adams Anytime TD

Parlay #3 (Rams Longshot) +2000

Matthew Stafford 300+ Pass Yards

Puka Nacua 100+ Rec Yards

Davante Adams 60+ Rec Yards

Davante Adams Anytime TD

Colby Parkinson Anytime TD

QB JJ McCarthy

I mean, JJ McCarthy had a decent day, throwing for three passing TDs, but on just 167 passing yards. He's singlehandedly killing this Vikings offence. It's so disappointing because this Cowboys defence is one you want to absolutely target. Dallas allows the 5th most completions (23.5), the 10th most pass attempts (34.4), the most passing yards (272.5) and the most passing TDs (2.2). But how can you trust McCarthy? He's thrown for over 200 passing yards just one time this season. Against zone coverage, he has the lowest completion percentage (57.6%), the 2nd fewest yards per attempt (5.3) and the lowest QBR (62.4). That's brutal. Against Cover 3, it's more of the same, as he has the lowest completion percentage (57.4%), the 9th lowest yards per attempt (6.45) and the 3rd lowest QBR (66.2). It's such a good matchup, but McCarthy just hasn't been able to get it done through the air this season. He can't be trusted, but we don't necessarily want to fade him this week either.

Suggested pick:

Pass

RB Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones bounced back in a big way after his pathetic Week 13. He rushed 14 times for 76 yards, finishing with a 5.4 yards per carry. This week, he'll get a decent matchup against the Cowboys, who have actually been far better since the Quinnen Williams trade. Dallas allows the 8th feest rush attempts (19.8), and the 16th fewest rushing yards (93.3). But as mentioned before, their rush defence has been a lot better since the trade deadline. Since the Williams acquisition, the Cowboys have held Ashton Jeanty to six yards on seven attempts, Saquon Barkley to 22 yards on 10 attempts, Kareem Hunt to 58 yards on 14 attempts, and Jahmyr Gibbs to 43 yards on 12 attempts. Not exactly promising. However, Jones can get it done in the receiving game as well. And the Cowboys allow the 3rd most receptions (5.4) and the 2nd most receiving yards (48.2) per game to opposing RBs. Jones didn't factor into the receiving games last week, but had previously logged 3+ receptions in four straight weeks before that. So we're expecting him to bounce back in that category.

Suggested Pick:

Aaron Jones 3+ Receptions (-175)

WR Justin Jefferson

I wish JJ McCarthy could support Justin Jefferson, because this is an awesome matchup. To keep us up to date, Jefferson has caught four of his 10 targets over the past two weeks for, brace yourselves, 15 receiving yards... The Cowboys allow the 8th most receptions (12.3) and the most receiving yards (171.1) per game to WRs. But how can you trust Jefferson with the QB play? He does great against zone coverage, catching 48 of his 75 targets for 627 receiving yards, and has 26 receptions on 37 targets for 351 receiving yards against Cover 3. He also sees his catch rate (67.2%), yards per reception (12.8) and yards per route run (2.37) increase in zone coverage compared to man. I'm going to continue to believe and be optimistic in Jefferson, despite the lack of production lately, just because of the fantastic matchup. Let's not forget it's prime time. Jefferson is going to want to shine under the bright lights on Sunday night.

Suggested pick:

Justin Jefferson 60+ Receiving Yards (-130)

WR Jordan Addison

Can you believe your eyes? Addison has actually outproduced Jefferson over these past two weeks. Addison has nine receptions on 17 targets for 98 receiving yards over that same stretch, while Jefferson has just 15 yards. Against zone coverage, Addison has caught 26 of his 47 targets for 394 receiving yards. Against Cover 3, Addison has been much worse, catching just five of his 16 targets for 82 receiving yards. But he's been cashing his longest reception for a while, and seems to be McCarthy's favourite target, so against a team that allows the 3rd highest yards per reception to outside WRs, no reason to go against that again in this matchup.

Suggested pick:

Jordan Addison 20+ Longest Reception (-120)

TE TJ Hockenson

We nailed TJ Hockenson last week, who turned his two receptions into just 16 receiving yards. And while the Cowboys struggle against the pass game, they;ve been decent at limiting opposing TEs. Against TEs, the Cowboys allow the 11th fewest receptions (5.9) but the 14th most receiving yards (53.3) per game. Against zone coverage, Hockenson has caught 36 of his 48 targets for 318 receiving yards. And against Cover 3, he's caught 15 of his 19 targets for 165 receiving yards. But all in all, it's been tough to trust Hockenson this season, and he has only logged 4+ receptions in 2/L7 games.

Suggested pick:

TJ Hockenson u3.5 Receptions (-165)

QB Dak Prescott

Last week made it three consecutive weeks that Dak Prescott threw for 300+ passing yards. This week, he gets the Vikings defence, who allow the 2nd fewest completions (17.3), the fewest pass attempts (27.4), the 4th fewest passing yards (189.5) and the 5th fewest passing TDs (1.1) per game to opposing QBs. The Vikings run the 10th most zone coverage (75.7%), and the 2nd most Cover 2 (25%). Against zone coverage, Prescott has the 3rd highest completion percentage (73.5%), the 11th highest QBR (95.8) and is middle of the pack in yards per attempt (7.55). Against Cover 2, Prescott has the 13th highest completion percentage (73.1%), the 14th highest yards per attempt (8.07) and is middle in the pack in QBR (89.2). While it's certainly a tough matchup for Prescott and the Cowboys, he's been getting it done against tough matchups like the Chiefs and Eagles; there's no reason he can't do it against the Vikings this weekend.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott 250+ Passing Yards (-165)

RB Javonte Williams

While the Vikings have been tough to throw against, they've given up heavy volume on the ground. The Vikings allow the most rush attempts (26.6) and as a result, the 11th most rushing yards (105.4) per game to opposing RBs. The Vikings run a heavy amount of zone concept (52.1%), and allow a 4.25 yards per carry, which is higher than their 3.54 average against man/gap. For Javonte, it doesn't really matter what coverage the defence is in: he dominates both. Williams averages 5.36 yards per carry against the zone concept and 5.58 yards per carry against the man/gap. Javonte isn't really a receiving back; he can succeed in the pass game. But it won't matter much, as the Vikings allow the 3rd fewest receptions (3.3) and the fewest receiving yards (19.5) per game to opposing backs. Javonte has seen a steady workload over the last three weeks, logging no fewer than 17 attempts over that stretch. And now, going up against the team that allows the most rush attempts per game is a good bet his volume won't slow down.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams o17.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

WR CeeDee Lamb

Back-to-back 100+ receiving games for Lamb. And what's most impressive is that Lamb did all of that in the first half but left the game with a concussion. He went through the concussion protocol, but has been cleared for this week against the Vikings. But it's a tough matchup. The Vikings allow the fewest receptions (8.6) and the 4th fewest receiving yards (118.7). Against zone coverage, Lamb has caught 16 of his 26 targets for 195 receiving yards on a 21.3% target share. Against Cover 2, Lamb has caught eight of his 10 targets for 178 receiving yards. Lamb has a higher catch rate against zone coverage (77.1%), but a lower yards per reception (17.1) and yards per route run (2.18) than his man splits. Lamb lines up on the outside on 65.2% of his routes. Against outside receivers, the Vikings are targeted at the lowest rate, allowing the 11th lowest catch rate (63.8%) but the 2nd highest yards per reception (15.53). This indicates that while they limit volume, they still allow receiving yards to the outside. With that in mind, we like Lamb to continue his run, especially with how Prescott has been of late.

Suggested pick:

CeeDee Lamb 80+ Receiving Yards (-130)

WR George Pickens

Spoiler alert: we aren't high on Pickens this weekend. Pickens has good numbers against zone, catching 24 of his 35 targets for 463 receiving yards, but against Cover 2, the Vikings' most preferred shell, Pickens just isn't targeted. He has just five catches on eight targets for 82 receiving yards on 64 routes. That's an 11.8% target share. He just isn't a go-to option for Prescott against the coverage. Pickens sees his catch rate (74.2%) increase in zone, but his yards per reception (14.4) and yards per route run (2.64) fall compared to his man splits. Like Lamb, Pickens lines up on the outside on 89.1% of his snaps. Trust me, I need Pickens in my fantasy league in the first round of the playoffs. But I just can't see him increasing his workload this week against a Cover 2 heavy team.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens u75.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Jake Ferguson

Spoiler alert: we are high on Ferguson this week. And, to be honest, it's for the exact same reason as Pickens. But first, the Vikings allow the 16th most receptions (5.4) but the 15th fewest receiving yards (51.3) per game to the TE position. Which, isn't necessarily a target; however, it's a massive upgrade compared to the WR splits. Against zone, Ferguson has caught 17 of his 29 targets for 99 receiving yards. However, and this is the kicker for Ferguson this week, Ferguson has caught 18 of his 22 targets for 156 receiving yards and a MASSIVE 32.4% target share. Ferguson has a higher catch rate (88.2%), yards per reception (8.0) and yards per route run (1.7) in zone coverage compared to his man splits. That's good enough for me to back Ferguson this week.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson o34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Ole JJ AKA nine looked really good last week and now will get a welcome coming into Jerrys world. The Vikings TT is very inticing

Best Bet Vikings 'O' 19.5 Pts -150
Lean Vikings +5.5 -120
Score Prediction Vikings 24 Cowboys 27

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Parlay 1: (Vikings) +250 odds on bet365

Aaron Jones 3+ Receptions

Aaron Jones 20+ Receiving Yards

Jordan Addison 40+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: (Cowboys) +320 odds on bet365

Dak Prescott 250+ Passing Yards

Jake Ferguson 50+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 3: (Vikings/Cowboys Longshot) +1500 odds on bet365

Dak Prescott 300+ Passing Yards

Aaron Jones 4+ Receptions

Jake Ferguson 50+ Receiving Yards