Baker Mayfield was not happy following last Sunday's home loss to the 3-win New Orleans Saints. He more or less put the defense on notice this week, so it will be interesting to see how they respond tonight against Atlanta. Baker and the Bucs will be dawning the creamsicles tonight at Raymond James Stadium, and I expect Mayfield to do whatever is necessary to get Tampa Bay back on the winning side. I am specifically targeting his rushing total vs the Falcons. Baker Mayfield came out of the gate running this season, but injuries limited him to three straight games without a single rush attempt. The Buccaneers QB is back in prime form now, and has fully leaned into legs as of late, running for 39, 19, 27 and 42 yards over his last 4 games. During this stretch, Mayfield has been consistently supported with at least 4+ rush attempts, where he's averaging 6.6 YPC. We are getting a favorable line here because of the return of Mike Evans, but he found himself in a similar circumstance in Week 14 when Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin returned from their injuries, and he's still recorded 6 carries in each of his last 2 games. Baker ran 5 times for 39 yards the first time he faced Atlanta back in Week 1. Part of the reason Baker is choosing to run more is because he is completing only 50% of his pass attempts for an average of 4.7 YPA when facing pressure. This is important to know, because the Falcons have the 2nd highest blitz rate in the league (36.6%), yet they are still giving up the 4th most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks (23.5 YPG). This tells us that despite their high rate of blitzing, the lanes still stay open for QB's to run through. Last week, Baker Mayfield scrambled six times for 42 yards and he didn't hesitate to take off once the pocket began to collapse. Between multiple chances to run on scrambles, bootlegs and broken plays (where Baker really racks up yards), this is enough volume for him to easily clear the 19.5 (rushing yards) line set for tonight. The Falcons have struggled all season to limit mobile quarterbacks in the running game and Raheem Morris' defense is one that invites scrambling. ATL plays a ton of man coverage!! They turn their backs on opposing QBs and rely heavily on pressure which often forces quarterbacks to escape out of the pocket. This has resulted in several QBs burning the Falcons defense with their legs. This year, Atlanta has allowed big games to Baker Mayfield (39 yds), J.J. McCarthy (25 yds), Marcus Mariota (20 yds), Josh Allen (42 yds), Drake Maye (20 yds), Daniel Jones (53 yds), Tyrod Taylor (44 yds), Tyler Shough (22 yds) and Sam Darnold (23 yds). Baker Mayfield is playing with confidence and aggression, extending plays and taking open lanes without hesitation. With a 100% snap rate and a hit or miss O-line, he should get plenty of opportunities to bust this line wide open.

 

Baker Mayfield o19.5 Rush Yards (-110)

Baker Mayfield 30+ ALT Rush Yards (+215)

 

 

After missing seven weeks with a foot sprain, Bucky Irving returned to the field in week 13 where he posted back-to-back games of exactly 81 total yards and a touchdown. Tonight, we are targeting his receiving yards. In just his 2nd season in the NFL, Bucky Irving has already become one of the game's best pass-catching backs. For starters, the Buccaneers RB has excellent hands. Over his brief 24-game career, Bucky has caught 70 of the 76 passes that have gone his way (92.1% CR). Irving has cleared 22.5 receiving yards in 4 of L5 games this season, putting up totals of 6-50 (HOU), 4-33 (NYJ), 5-102 (PHI), 3-26 (NO). Bucky's route involvement has continued to increase since he returned from injury, and he is Baker Mayfield's primary target on check downs and out in space. Atlanta is a tougher matchup, but they are still allowing the 13th most receptions per game (4.5) and 14th most receiving YPG (32.5) to opposing RBs. The Falcons have seen 9 of 13 running backs eclipse this line on them in '25, and they've done so by an average of 8.8 YPG. This is an excellent matchup for the Bucs RB to exploit on TNF. The Falcons defense has a zone-heavy approach that naturally funnels short passes underneath, exactly where Bucky Irving thrives. This number is simply too low for his explosiveness. Irving gets 3.9 receptions per game on 10.1 YPR for an average of 39.8 receiving YPG. so in theory we only need two catches here. This is a must win for Tampa Bay tonight and I expect Bucky Irving to be a focal point in the Buccaneers offense.

 

Bucky Irving o22.5 Rec Yards (-110)

 

 

Emeka Egbuka had a monster performance in his rookie debut against Atlanta in Week 1, catching 4 of 6 targets for 67 yards and 2 TDs. He was unstoppable over the first five weeks of the season, but injuries to Bucky Irving, Mike Evans and an injury-ridden offensive line stalled his production. He caught just 2 of 9 balls thrown his direction for15 yards last Sunday. Over his past 8 games, Egbuka and QB Baker Mayfield have connected on only 29 of 72 targets (40.3%).  During this time frame Emeka has 5 drops (3rd most), while a league-high 29.2% of his targets have been inaccurate, an issue I talked about in length last week. My biggest concern with the Bucs rookie WR has been his inability to create separation. He currently ranks 58th among receivers in separation score. He's been getting plenty of targets, but with Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back one has to wonder if that number is going to decrease. However, this is a script which could also flip back in his favor as having both Evans and Godwin on the field as decoys could create more chances for Egbuka. Tonight, will mark the first time all season where the three will be on the field at the same time. Still, this doesn't solve the issue Mayfield is still having with a Bucs offensive line that is battered and bruised. Until that issue is solved, it's going to be tough for Mayfield to make precise throws with such little time.

 

 

 

Chris Godwin hauled in 5 of his 8 targets for 55 yards at home vs New Orleans on Sunday. Godwin has seen his snap usage increase with every week, and in his three games since returning to the field in week 12 he has run a route on 42.9%, 66.7% and 86.1% of Baker Mayfield's dropbacks. I have been hammering on Chris Godwin for the past two weeks now, and he's paid off both times. He was dynamite to open the 2024 season, and week 13 was first time I have seen him look like the old Chris Godwin, and that's a very dangerous player to deal with. Godwin also has the luxury of Mike Evans returning to the field, which provides him with a heavyweight decoy. I am once again shocked at the disrespect for a player who put up monster numbers last season when he was fully healthy. Godwin is finally back to that form and a line of just 39.5 yards in simply criminal, but I'm not complaining. Our magic number here is 40 yards, and Chris Godwin has cleared this in 8 consecutive games against Atlanta. Going back to 2020, the 9-year veteran out of Penn State has posted receiving totals of 133, 62, 143, 61, 55, 66, 53, 64. The Buccaneers are looking at this as a must win game, and Mayfield will look to Godwin, who is the currently the Tampa Bay's most explosive playmaker.