QB Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy enters this matchup playing his cleanest football of the season, coming off a highly efficient performance highlighted by aggressive downfield accuracy and increased willingness to extend plays with his legs. Indianapolis presents a favorable coverage mix for Purdy, leaning heavily on Cover 3 and Cover 1—looks he’s consistently shredded with strong anticipation throws and decisive reads over the middle. While the Colts have limited passing touchdowns recently, they’ve still allowed consistent yardage and explosive plays, often bending between the 20s before tightening near the goal line. San Francisco’s offensive structure helps mitigate that issue by creating high-efficiency red-zone opportunities through motion, condensed formations, and misdirection. If Purdy maintains his recent aggressiveness and the Colts are forced out of conservative shells, he profiles well for another multi-score outing even if raw volume stays modest.

Suggested Play:

'O' 245.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Christian McCaffery

Christian McCaffrey remains the engine of the offense despite a slight dip in receiving involvement over the past two weeks. Indianapolis has been solid against running backs overall, but they’ve shown vulnerability in goal-to-go situations and against backs who stress defenses horizontally before attacking downhill. McCaffrey’s role near the goal line remains unquestioned, and San Francisco continues to prioritize getting him touches early to establish control. The Colts’ ability to limit yards before contact doesn’t fully negate McCaffrey’s vision and patience, especially behind one of the league’s best run-blocking units. Even if explosive runs are limited, sustained drives and red-zone opportunities put him in a strong position to be the first player called upon to finish a scoring drive.

Suggested Play:

First Touchdown Scorer (+330)

WR Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings has quietly become one of the most reliable touchdown producers in football, thriving in high-leverage situations with physical routes and strong hands near the goal line. With injuries thinning the receiver room, Jennings continues to operate as the primary perimeter option and a trusted red-zone target. Indianapolis has struggled mightily against outside receivers, allowing both volume and efficiency while frequently losing at the catch point. Jennings’ usage isn’t dependent on heavy target volume; instead, it’s built around timing, trust, and schemed opportunities off play-action. Given the Colts’ tendency to commit extra bodies to stopping McCaffrey, Jennings consistently finds himself in isolated coverage when it matters most.

Suggested Play: 

Anytime Touchdown (+130)

TE George Kittle

George Kittle remains in a dominant stretch as both a chain-mover and explosive play threat, and the matchup aligns well for continued involvement. The Colts have allowed significant production to tight ends between the numbers, particularly against teams that stress linebackers with play-action and layered route concepts. While Indianapolis has avoided allowing touchdowns to the position recently, that streak looks fragile given how often they’ve been tested in the red zone. Kittle’s role is not matchup-dependent—he’s schemed touches in space, used as a blocker-release option, and featured heavily on third downs. Even if he doesn’t score, his route depth and yards-after-catch ability create a strong floor for sustained production.

Suggested Play:

'O' 68.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

QB Phillip Rivers
Forty-four year old Philip Rivers didn’t look awful in his first week of action in over five years. They almost pulled the upset off against Seattle. They played with a positive game script for a majority of that game and could feed Taylor to slowly work Rivers back in. That’s not something I’m predicting to happen in most games. In his first week in action he had 27 passing attempts and 18 competitions (66.7% completion rate) for 120 yards, a touchdown pass and an interception. The underlying stats showed a lot of short yardage stuff: 4.44 yards per attempt, 4.85 aDOT and a 73.1 passer rating. 38% of his throws were at or behind the line of scrimmage. We’ll give him a bit of a pass here given it was his first game against one of the best defenses in the league. I actually really like this spot for Rivers as a passer given how low his lines are. I think he’ll continue to work mostly in the shorter area passing game, but they likely won’t have the luxury to run as much as last week. He now gets a full week to prepare and they can build more of an offensive game plan for Rivers. The key here is the 49ers cannot generate pressure, thanks to injuries. They hold the 2nd lowest pressure rate (30%) and are dead last in sack rate (3.4%). If given time Rivers should be able to throw. With his lines being so low and a good matchup, I like taking a shot on the overs here.

 Suggested Picks
‘O’ 160.5 Passing Yards (-110)
175+ Passing Yards (+140)
200+ Passing Yards (+265)
225+ Passing Yards (+510)

RB Jonathan Taylor
JT got a heavy workload last week with 25 carries for 87 yards. He only averaged 3.5 yards per carry, but it was a tough defensive matchup. His numbers on the season are still elite, but they have slowed of late. That’s likely thanks to some really tough matchups and losing his quarterback. He’s faced top rushing defenses, such as Seattle, Jacksonville, Houston and Kansas City over the past four weeks. This season he has rushed 272 times for 1,443 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s averaging a stellar 5.31 yards per carry, 103 yards per game and a 5.88% explosive run rate. His 53.68% success rate is amongst the best in the league. This matchup suits JT much better. They have diced up on the ground over the past two weeks, allowing 91 yards to Judkins and 104 yards the week prior to Tony Pollard. Over the last 5 games, SF has allowed 130 yards per game to backfields. SF is allowing the 5th most yards before contact this season and Taylor is ranked 10th in average yards before contact. Taylor should continue to be an outlet option for Rivers too. This rush defense has struggled since the loss of defensive end Mykel Williams, allowing the highest success rate to opposing running backs since his injury. All signs point to a big day for Taylor in prime time.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-150)
‘O’ 119.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman caught 3 passes on 5 targets for 26 yards this past week in Rivers’ debut. There is no doubt this new offense dampens some expectations on all of these pass catchers, but the lines have certainly adjusted for it. If there is a receiver in this offense that profiles as a compatible target for Rivers, it’s Pittman. On the season, Pittman has 72 receptions for 725 yards and 7 touchdowns. He owns a 75% completion rate, 25.2% first-read rate and a 103 passer rating when targeted. As a possession wide receiver, it’s easy to see some trust being built with Rivers with a full week of practice. Pittman works mostly outside (70%), but also runs out of the slot about a third of the time. This is where San Francisco's defense can be taken advantage of. They are allowing the 2nd highest yards per target (8.0) and 4th highest touchdown rate to slot wide receivers. SF is also allowing 44% of receptions to come out of the slot, good for 2nd most. With that in mind, Josh Downs also may be worth a look here too, the Colts primary slot wide receiver. If we think Rivers’ can clear his passing line, someone is going to have to catch passes!

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (+100)

WR Alec Pierce
Pierce only managed one catch on one target for 16 yards last week. The new quarterback change does not suit Pierce’s game at all as a deeper threat target on this offense. He owns a 18.73 aDOT, 20.13 yards per reception and 43.94% air yardage share rate. That does not marry well with Rivers’ 4.44 yards per pass attempt, 4.85 aDOT and 11.11% checkdown rate, especially in an already run heavy offense. Hopefully they’ll look to get him more involved in the screen game because I don’t think Rivers has a deep ball anymore. Even with insanely low lines for Pierce compared to season norms, I’m not dying to back him here until I see more creative usage in a short passing yardage offense.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE Tyler Warren
Warren led the team last week in targets (6) last week, but only reeled in 3 catches for 19 yards. He’s had a great rookie season with 63 catches on 86 targets (73.3% catch rate) for 718 yards and 4 touchdowns. He holds a 113.4 passer rating when targeted and is averaging 11.4 yards per reception and about 7 yards after the catch per reception. He owns a 19.3% target rate and 21.3% team yardage share. This is a really nice matchup for Warren if the passing attack can get going. Losing Fred Warner has made this SF defense susceptible in the middle of the field. Since losing him, this defense is allowing the 9th most receptions (5.9) and 12th most yards (60) to tight ends. We saw the Titans exploit this last week with 8 catches between their two tight ends, Chig Okonkwo and Gunnar Helm (8 catches for 82 yards). Philip Rivers has loved his tight ends too, so this looks like a great spot for Warren in what could be a negative game flow.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-145)
5+ Receptions

If the 49ers can stop the run and force 3rd and longs they will be fine. This Colts defense looked unreal last week on the road and I expect them to bring that momentum into this game at home. I like the under here. 

Best Bet: Under 45.5 -115
Lean: 49er ML -220
Score Prediction Colts 14 49ers 24

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (49ers) Jauan Jennings Anytime TD +130

Jauan Jennings has quietly become one of the most reliable touchdown producers in football, thriving in high-leverage situations with physical routes and strong hands near the goal line. With injuries thinning the receiver room, Jennings continues to operate as the primary perimeter option and a trusted red-zone target. Indianapolis has struggled mightily against outside receivers, allowing both volume and efficiency while frequently losing at the catch point. Jennings’ usage isn’t dependent on heavy target volume; instead, it’s built around timing, trust, and schemed opportunities off play-action. Given the Colts’ tendency to commit extra bodies to stopping McCaffrey, Jennings consistently finds himself in isolated coverage when it matters most.

Longshot (Colts) Josh Downs +425
Downs saw the only pass catching score last week from Rivers, as well as the only redzone target. This sets up for another great spot for Downs, who mostly plays out of the slot. They are allowing the 2nd highest yards per target (8.0) and 4th highest touchdown rate to slot wide receivers. SF is also allowing 44% of receptions to come out of the slot, good for 2nd most. There is no doubt that SF will be focused on slowing down Jonathan Taylor, which could leave them more vulnerable to a passing score if Rivers can put together a solid showing.

1st TD Picks

Longshot: (49ers) Christian McCaffery First TD +330

Christian McCaffrey remains the engine of the offense despite a slight dip in receiving involvement over the past two weeks. Indianapolis has been solid against running backs overall, but they’ve shown vulnerability in goal-to-go situations and against backs who stress defenses horizontally before attacking downhill. McCaffrey’s role near the goal line remains unquestioned, and San Francisco continues to prioritize getting him touches early to establish control. The Colts’ ability to limit yards before contact doesn’t fully negate McCaffrey’s vision and patience, especially behind one of the league’s best run-blocking units. Even if explosive runs are limited, sustained drives and red-zone opportunities put him in a strong position to be the first player called upon to finish a scoring drive.

Best Bet (Colts) Jonathan Taylor +350
There is no doubt that IND will try and run their way to a win behind the potential offensive player of the year. After a 25-carry week against SEA, he should see plenty of volume here too. Over the last 5 games, SF has allowed 130 yards per game to backfields. SF is allowing the 5th most yards before contact this season and Taylor is ranked 10th in average yards before contact. We saw Pollard and Judkins smash against the defense the last two games. There is no reason JT doesn’t find the endzone and we are expecting a heavy dose of him early in this one.

Parlay #1 (Colts): +128
Philip Rivers 125+ Passing Yards
Philip Rivers 1+ Passing Touchdowns
Jonathan Taylor 60+ Rushing Yards
Jonathan Taylor 2+ Receptions

Parlay #2 (Colts): +1596
Philip Rivers 200+ Passing Yards
Tyler Warren over 4.5 Receptions
Josh Downs TD

Parlay #3 (49ers): +445 

Brock Purdy 'O' 245.5 Pass Yards

Christian McCaffery ATD

Jauan Jennings ATD

QB Jalen Hurts

It was a slow day at the office for Hurts against the Raiders last week. Not because he didn't have success, he threw fo 175 yards and three TDs. But his volume was low, throwing just 15 times, but completed 12 of his passes. It might be a bit of the same this week, considering the Commanders allow the 15th fewest completions (20.6) and the 13th fewest pass attempts (30.9) per game, but the 5th most passing yards (259.9) and the 2nd most passing TDs (2.0) per game to opposing QBs. Washington runs the 13th most man coverage (27.6%), and the 9th most Cover 1 (23.1%). Against man coverage, Hurts ranks in the middle of the pack in completion percentage (57.9%), yards per attempt (7.04), but has the 9th highest QBR (111.9). Against Cover 1, Hurts again ranks in the middle of the pack in completion percentage (59.7%), the 12th highest yards per attempt (7.76), and the 3rd highest QBR (121.8). So, it appears Hurts' low volume, but efficient style of play perfectly aligns with how this defence operates. Hurts should be in for a big day.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts 2+ Passing TDs (-115)

RB Saquon Barkley

It took all 22 carries for him to get there, but damn it, Barkley cashed our over for the first time all season. And he'll be given another prime opportunity to carry that over this week against the Commanders, who allow the 5th most rush attempts (24.2) and the 6th most rushing yards (109.5) per game to opposing backs. Washington runs more zone concept (44.5%) than man/gap, to which they allow a 4.29 yards per carry, significantly lower than the 4.96 against man/gap. And Saquon is a bit of the same, as he has a worse yards per carry against zone concept (3.83) than man/gap (4.03). Call me crazy, but Barkley is riding a hot streak and could be ramping up for the playoffs. And this matchup is quite welcoming, so I'm going to trust him for the second straight game.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley o78.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR AJ Brown

AJ Brown came back down to earth last week, but still caught both of his targets for 41 receiving yards and a TD. Although it's still viewed as a negative after three straight weeks for 100+ receiving yards. But this week, he gets the Commanders, who Brown has traditionally dominated in years prior, who allow the 14th most receptions (11.6) and the 8th most receiving yards (159.3). Against man coverage, Brown has caught 20 of his 34 targets this season for 295 receiving yards – leading the team with a 32.7% target share. Against Cover 1, specifically, Brown has caught 12 of 19 targets for 173 receiving yards – again, leads the team with a 34.5% target share. While his catch rate dips in man coverage (60%), his yards per reception (15.9) and yards per route run (2.98) massively increase compared to his zone splits. Alignment-wise, Brown lines up outside on 89.8% of his routes. Against outside receivers, the Commanders are targeted at the 2nd lowest rate, allowing the 7th highest catch rate (65.3%) and the 6th highest yards per reception. Honestly, we kind of like that Brown struggled last week, allowing him to have a massive bounce-back day, and given how he was trending, we know he can still hit that level. Brown has logged 60+ receiving yards in five straight against the Commanders, averaging 112.6 receiving yards per game.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown 60+ Receiving Yards (-120)

AJ Brown 80+ Receiving Yards (+195)

AJ Brown 100+ Receiving Yards (+400)

WR Devonta Smith

Devonta Smith did not come through for us last week. Despite the good matchup, he didn't see the volume. However, he did turn his two catches into 50 receiving yards. But that was against zone, where he typically excels. Now, he'll face a man-heavy Commanders team, where he has 18 receptions on 29 targets for 180 receiving yards against the coverage. Against Cover 1, Smith sees his production cut in half, catching eight of his 15 targets for 100 receiving yards. To the surprise of nobody, Smith sees his catch rate (59.3%), yards per reception (9.6) and yards per route run (1.45) all decrease in man coverage compared to zone. With Smith mainly aligning in the slot, the Commanders are targeted at that position at the 7th highest yards, allowing the 8th highest catch rate (73.2%), and the 2nd highest yards per reception (13.2) this season. As usual, we are going to put all our eggs in the AJ Brown basket this week against a man-heavy team.

Suggested pick:

Pass

TE Dallas Goedert

While both receivers were held to just two targets last week, Goedert was Hurts' favourite target. He caught six of his seven targets for 70 receiving yards and found the end zone twice. This week, he'll get a Commanders defence that allows the 15th fewest receptions (5.2) but the 6th most receiving yards (64.6) per game to the TE position. Against man coverage, Goedert has caught 13 of his 19 targets for 93 receiving yards. He does well against Cover 1, too, catching seven of his 10 targets this season for 62 receiving yards. He sees his catch rate (72.2%), yards per reception (7.2) and yards per route run (1.04) all decrease in man coverage compared to his zone numbers. On the season, Goedert lines up mostly in the slot, but he ran 57.9% of his routes from the inline position last week. To inline receivers, the Commanders are targeted at the 9th highest rate, allowing a middle of the pack catch rate (76.7%), but the 3rd highest yards per reception (11.93). Goedert's riding hot, hop on the train while you can.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert 40+ Receiving Yards (-120)

QB Marcus Mariota

The Commanders have shut down Jayden Daniels for the remainder of the season, so we're full-time on the Marcus Mariota train the rest of the way. The Eagles allow the 7th fewest completions (18.6), the 8th fewest passing yards (210.4), the 2nd fewest passing TDs (0.9), but the 13th most pass attempts. In terms of coverages, the Eagles run the 13th most man coverage (27.6%), but oddly enough, the most Cover 6 (21.2%) – a zone shell. Unfortunately, it's been pretty tough for Mariota against man coverage, as he has the 4th lowest completion percentage (49.3%), the 7th lowest yards per attempt (5.12) and the 8th lowest QBR (77.7). Take this with a grain of salt because Mariota has seen just 10 dropbacks against Cover 6, but he has the 2nd highest yards per attempt (12.11) and the highest QBR (135.9). It's not the ideal matchup for Mariota to have too much success through the air, but we do like what he can do with his legs in this matchup, as he's logged 40+ rushing yards in three of the last four weeks, and now gets a Eagles defence that is allowing the 2nd most rushing yards (23.5) per game to opposing QBs.

Suggested pick:

Marcus Mariota o27.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Marcus Mariota 40+ Rushing Yards (+215)

RB Chris Rodriguez

Rodriguez missed last week's good matchup, which is unfortunate. JCM stepped up and had himself a successful day, rushing for 96 yards. However, the books have Rodriguez with the highest line, indicating that they believe he will be the starter, so we'll go off that for this week. The Eagles allow the 14th most rushing attempts (22.4) and the 16th most rushing yards (97.2) per game to opposing backs. Eagles run more zone concept (43.4%) than man/gap. In zone scheme, they allow a 4.43 yards per carry. This isn't the best news for Rodriguez, who excels against man/gap with a 5.16 yards per carry, and has an alright 3.87 yards per carry against zone. Without knowing for sure how this backfield will shake out, it's tough to strongly recommend a pick for the Commanders' backfield.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

WR Deebo Samuel

Deebo's play has started to decline over the last few games, coinciding with when McLaurin returned. Last week, Deebo caught three of five targets for 43 receiving yards. This week, he might have some more difficulties, as he faced an Eagles defence that allowed the 14th fewest receptions (10.6) and the 15th fewest receiving yards (136.5) per game to opposing WRs. Against man coverage, Samuel has caught 16 of 24 targets for 145 receiving yards and a 22% target share. But compared to his zone numbers, Samuel struggles, as he sees his catch rate (68%), yards per reception (8.8) and yards per route run (1.43) fall in man. Against Cover 6, Deebo has been near perfect, catching seven of eight targets for 77 receiving yards and a solid 27.6% target share. Deebo lines up in the slot on 62.4% of his routes. Against slot receivers, the Eagles are targeted at a middle-of-the-pack rate, but allow the lowest catch rate (58.3%) and the 6th lowest yards per reception (9.18). Not only is it not a good matchup positionally or with his alignment, but Deebo struggles against the more preferred Eagles coverage, and has seen his production decline over the past few weeks since McLaurin returned.

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel u42.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Terry McLaurin

McLaurin has been getting it done since he returned. Through his three games since returning, McLaurin is averaging 4.3 receptions and 68.67 receiving yards per game. But will he be able to replicate that against this tough Eagles defence, who are a difficult matchup for WRs? Against man coverage, McLaurin has an abysmal six receptions on 19 targets for 59 receiving yards. His volume doesn't really increase against Cover 6, either, as he has two receptions for three targets, but for 71 receiving yards. With such horrible numbers against man coverage, it should come to no surprise that McLaurin sees his catch rate (33.3%), yards per reception (9.8) and yards per route run (1.07) significantly fall compared to his zone splits. His alignment gives us some hope, as McLaurin runs 86.8% of his routes from the perimeter, to which the Eagles are targeted at the 7th highest rate, allowing the 2nd lowest catch rate, but the 7th highest yards per reception (14.2) this season. He'll draw a tough matchup against Quinyon Mitchell, but McLaurin excels in catching a deep ball, and the Eagles allow long catches to outside WRs. McLaurin has logged a 22+ yard reception in four of his previous five games.

Suggested pick:

Terry McLaurin o21.5 Longest Reception (-115)

Well, we have one team with a chance to clinch the NFC East for the second consecutive season for the first time in over two decades, and another team that is already eliminated from playoff contention and starting their backup QB after their star signal caller was shut down for the rest of the season. It should be pretty clear who has the motive and drive to win more than the other team.

Best Bet: Eagles -6.5 -110
Lean: Eagles TT o27.5
Score Prediction: Eagles 31 Commanders 13

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Eagles): AJ Brown TD (+120)

After not finding the end zone the week prior, Brown scored last week to keep his average of scoring 1 TD per game over his last four intact. He has historically found the end zone with ease against the Commanders, finding paydirt five times in four games over the past two seasons.

Best Pick: (Commanders): Marcus Mariota Anytime TD (+250)

Well, there weren't really too many options for us this week on the Commanders side to find the end zone. The Eagles pass defence is allowing under one passing TD per game, and we aren't confident of who is going to lead the backfield, so why not take a shot at Mariota rushing one in? Mariota has found the end zone four times already this season, and it's a good matchup for Mariota to use his legs, so why not? Also, the Eagles are allowing a QB to score with their legs to find the end zone at a top-five rate in the league.

1st TD Picks

Best Pick: (Eagles) AJ Brown First TD (+700)

In the five games Brown has scored this season, three of those games have been the first TD for the Eagles. The Commanders allow the 7th most receiving TDs (1.07) per game to opposing WRs.

Parlay 1: (Eagles) +200 odds on bet365

AJ Brown TD

AJ Brown 60+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: (Commanders) +240 odds on bet365

Marcus Mariota 30+ Rushing Yards

Terry McLaurin 50+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 3: (Eagles/Commanders) +1250 odds on bet365

AJ Brown TD

AJ Brown 80+ Receiving Yards

Marcus Mariota 40+ Rushing Yards

QB Jordan Love 

Jordan Love enters this matchup in a favorable coverage environment against a Chicago defense that leans heavily on zone (64.3%) with a top-10 man rate (30.1%), a mix that has historically produced efficiency spikes for Love when protection holds. Against zone-heavy looks, Love has been more decisive with timing throws and has shown a willingness to attack intermediate windows rather than forcing deep shots. Chicago has struggled to limit explosive pass plays when forced into split-safety rotations, and their pressure rate has dipped over the past month, allowing opposing quarterbacks time to work through progressions. With Green Bay’s receiver rotation healthy and Chicago allowing consistent yardage through the air, Love is positioned to clear a modest efficiency threshold rather than needing a spike performance.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 234.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs continues to function as the offensive engine regardless of game script, and this matchup sets up cleanly for volume and efficiency. Chicago’s front has allowed steady success on early downs, particularly against gap and inside-zone concepts, and they rank poorly in limiting yards before contact. Jacobs’ usage inside the red zone remains secure, and Green Bay has shown a willingness to lean on him near the goal line rather than forcing low-percentage throws. Even if the Bears keep the game competitive, Jacobs’ snap share and carry floor remain intact, making him one of the most stable pieces in this offense.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 67.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Jayden Reed

Jayden Reed profiles well against a Bears defense that has struggled mightily against receivers aligned inside. Chicago allows consistent separation to slot receivers against both Cover 2 and Cover 3, and Reed’s route tree is built to exploit short-area leverage and zone voids. His usage rate spikes against zone-heavy opponents, and Green Bay has increasingly designed early touches for him to get the ball out quickly when defenses sit back. Even without a deep target share, Reed’s ability to stack receptions and yards underneath gives him a clear path to production in this matchup.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-130) 

WR Christian Watson

Watson is the clear vertical and boundary stressor in this offense, and Chicago’s coverage profile plays directly into that role. The Bears deploy man coverage at a top-10 rate (30.1%), and Watson has been Green Bay’s most efficient receiver against man looks, consistently winning on go routes, deep posts, and red-zone fades. Chicago’s corners have struggled to stay on top against speed when safeties rotate late, and they’ve allowed multiple chunk plays on the perimeter over the past month. Watson doesn’t need volume for this to cash — one clean release against man or a busted zone exchange is enough to clear his longest-reception number.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 23.5 Yard Longest Reception (-125)

QB Caleb Williams

We're seeing a quick rematch after the Bears and Packers met just two weeks ago. Williams went 19/35 for 186 receiving yards and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio. Green Bay gives up high volume, but succeeds at limiting production. The Packers allow the 11th most completions (21.7), the 12th most pass attempts, but the 7th fewest passing yards (208.6) and the 12th fewest passing TDs (1.5). Green Bay runs the 3rd most zone coverage (79.6%), and the 7th most Cover 2 (18.3%). Against zone coverage, Williams has the lowest completion percentage (59.3%) (of the 35 QBs with 150+ dropbacks this season), the 12th lowest yards per attempt (7.04), and the 11th lowest QBR (84.5). But it's even worse against Cover 2, with the 2nd lowest completion percentage (57.9%), 2nd lowest yards per attempt (4.93) and 5th lowest QBR (69.4). Williams will be without Rome Odunze and Luther Burden this week, so he might not have as much success through the air. But that might play into our favour because he may need to pass even more as he won't have as much completion success.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams o30.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

RB D'Andre Swift

Swift got it done against a tough Browns defence last week, rushing for 98 yards on his 18 attempts. The Packers run defence is similar to their passing defence, allowing high volume but limiting production. They allow the 11th most rush attempts (22.6) and the 12th fewest rushing yards (87.6) per game to opposing backs. Swift does well against either run defence, but excels better against zone concept, averaging a 5.11 yards per carry. And that aligns well against the Packers, who run more zone concept (45.4%) than man/gap, and allow a higher yards per carry (4.05) as well. Against the Packers two weeks ago, Swift rushed the ball 13 times, turning that into 63 yards. However, where we like him the most is through the air – especially with Odunze and Burden out this week. The Packers allow the 12th most receptions (4.6) per game to opposing backs. And two weeks ago against the Packers, Swift turned his four targets into three receptions for 19 receiving yards. That was the only game over his last six in which he logged 3+ receptions in a game, but that goes into the matchup more than anything.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift 3+ Receptions (+115)

WR DJ Moore

I go away from DJ Moore for one week, and then the rest of his WR peers get hurt/don't play, and he scores a pair of TDs, just to rub salt in the wound. The Packers allow the 15th most receptions (11.5) and the 16th fewest receiving yards (139.3) per game to the position – overall, a mid-matchup. Against zone coverage, Moore has caught 33 of his 51 targets for 459 receiving yards. Against Cover 2, his volume is shockingly low, logging five receptions on eight targets for 54 receiving yards. He performs much better against zone than man coverage, seeing his catch rate (66.7%), yards per reception (13.2), and yards per route run (1.23) all increase when switching coverages. Moore lines up out wide on 67.2% of his snaps. To outside WRs, the Packers are targeted at the 10th highest rate, allowing the 8th highest catch rate (65.3%), but the 9th lowest yards per reception (12.74). With really nobody else to steal volume away from him this week, we like Moore to fall into some receiving yards, even though all in all, he's been bad this season.

Suggested pick:

DJ Moore o46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Colston Loveland

It's pretty safe to peg Loveland in for 3/4 receptions on 5/6 targets every week; it just depends on what he does with that volume. Last week, he turned that into 63 receiving yards. The two weeks before? He combined for 57 receiving yards. We'll likely lean more into the volume than the production this week, as the Packers allow the 14th most receptions (5.6) and the 5th fewest receiving yards (43.1) per game to opposing TEs. Against zone coverage, Loveland has caught 28 of his 39 targets for 389 receiving yards. Against Cover 2, he's been perfect, albeit on minimal volume, catching all four of his targets for 31 receiving yards. When facing zone coverage, Loveland sees his yards per reception (12.0) and yards per route run (1.55) increase, but his catch rate decreases (69.7%) compared to his man splits. Loveland lines up inline on 45.3% of his snaps. Now, that might switch to the slot now with so many WRs hurt, but against inline receivers, the Packers are targeted at the 8th highest rate, allowing the 10th lowest catch rate, and the lowest yards per reception (7.11) However, against slot receivers, which we expect Loveland to line up more often this week, the Packers are targeted at the 3rd lowest rate, allowing the 2nd highest catch rate (76%), but the 3rd lowest yards per reception (8.77) to the alignment. Expect a massive game from Loveland, who has a very favourable matchup this week, especially with two of the big receiving options missing.

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland o4.5 Receptions (+110)

This Bears team has looked really good and the Pakcers come into this one limping. Give me the Bears ML 

Best Bet: Bears ML -112
Lean: Packers TT Under 21.5 -125
Score Prediction Packers 17 Bears 23

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Packers): Jayden Reed Anytime TD +190

Reed continues to be Green Bay’s most schemed-up weapon near the goal line, particularly against zone-heavy defenses like Chicago. The Bears allow separation in the slot against Cover 2 and Cover 3, and Reed’s usage spikes on motion, crossers, and quick hitters inside the 10-yard line where Love is most comfortable throwing. With Chicago forced to account for Watson on the perimeter and Jacobs in the run game, Reed consistently draws favorable leverage underneath. His role gives him multiple paths to the end zone, whether on a designed red-zone target or a broken-coverage play off motion.

Best Pick: (Bears): Colston Loveland TD (+180)

We cashed on a MASSIVE +425 number on Loveland two weeks ago against the Packers, and that was with the Bears' full allotment of receiving options. But we're still getting a generous price on Loveland here, who should be at the very least the second option for Williams. If you like to follow trends, Loveland has scored one game and missed the next over the past four games. He missed last game, so it's his time to find the end zone again this week.

1st TD Picks

Best Bet (Packers): Josh Jacobs First TD +525

Jacobs remains the most trusted scoring option for Green Bay early in games, especially inside the red zone. Chicago has struggled to hold up against power runs and inside-zone concepts, allowing steady yards before contact and failing to consistently win at the point of attack. Green Bay has shown a clear tendency to establish Jacobs early rather than getting cute near the goal line, and his snap share and carry share remain strongest in scripted opening drives. If the Packers strike first, Jacobs is the most likely player to finish the drive.

Best Pick: (Bears) Colston Loveland First TD (+1100)

Loveland has yet to score the first TD of the game, and this week presents his best opportunity. The Packers allow the 12th most receiving TDs (0.43) to the TE position per game.

Parlay #1 (Packers) +365

Josh Jacobs ATD

Jordan Love ‘O’ 234.5 Pass Yards

Jayden Reed ‘O’ 3.5 Receptions

Parlay 2: (Bears) +825 odds on bet365

Chicago Bears ML

D'Andre Swift 3+ Receptions

Colston Loveland TD

QB Brady Cook

We have now essentially seen Brady Cook play 2 games, outside of the first drive against the Dolphins when Tyrod Taylor got hurt. Cook is averaging 169.5 passing yards per game, 5.38 YPA and a 57.1% completion rate. He’s thrown 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions. He’ll face a Saints defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 6th fewest passing yards per game (180.6). The Jets are 6.5-point underdogs and this game has just a 40.5 implied total. The Saints run single-high at the 4th highest rate in the league (58.9%). In a limited sample size, Cook is averaging 5.42 YPA, a 73.1% completion rate and a 85.6 QB rating against single-high. Cook had 6 rush attempts for 39 yards last week against Jacksonville. His first game, he had just 1 attempt for 0 yards against the Dolphins. In the past 2 weeks, the Saints have allowed Bryce Young to run for 49 yards and Baker Mayfield to run for 42 yards. There’s some upside here for Cook, but it’s a bit of an unknown.

Suggested Pick:

Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

RB Breece Hall

The Jets have been blown out by 28 and 24 points in the past 2 weeks, which has directly impacted Hall’s production, rushing for 43 and 23 yards respectively. Breece is averaging 64.3 rushing yards per game, 4.23 YPC and has a 7% explosive run rate. Hall also had just a 54.4% snap rate last week, his lowest since week 8 after being limited in practice throughout the week with a knee injury. There’s a bit of a risk that Isaiah Davis cuts into Hall’s workload going forward as the Jets have no reason to push him. He’ll face a Saints defense that ranks 9th best in EPA/Rush but has allowed the 7th most rushing yards per game (130.6). The Jets are 6.5-point underdogs and this game has just a 40.5 implied total. The Saints have sizable splits between zone and man/gap run concepts. They allow the 8th most YPC (4.58) against zone concept, compared to the 4th fewest YPC (3.58) against man/gap. 68.5% of Hall’s attempts have been zone concept, where he’s averaging a more efficient 4.52 YPC, a bullish schematic matchup. In the receiving game, Hall has been inconsistent from a production perspective, he had 14 yards last week after 0 and 8 receiving yards in the prior 2 weeks. The Saints allow the 3rd fewest receiving yards and 2nd fewest receptions to RBs. Despite a few tough games, I think this is a buy low spot for Breece in the running game.

Suggested Pick:

Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

WR Adonai Mitchell

Mitchell has at least 6 targets in 5 of 5 games with the Jets. He’s run a route on 79.4% of dropbacks. AD is averaging 47.2 receiving yards per game, 1.57 YPRR and 27% TPRR as a member of the Jets. He’ll face a Saints defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 6th fewest receiving yards per game (180.6). The Jets are 6.5-point underdogs and this game has just a 40.5 implied total. AD has lined up out wide on 80.7% of his routes. The Saints specifically allow the 10th most YPRR to wide alignment (2.04).  The Saints run single-high at the 4th highest rate in the league (58.9%). Mitchell averages 1.46 YPRR, has been targeted on 32% of his routes and has a 1st-read rate of 37.7% against single-high. I like Adonai at a 40.5 receiving yards line.

Suggested Pick:

Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

TE Jeremy Ruckert

With Taylor out last week, Ruckert led the TE group in route participation rate at 46.3%. In the past 4 weeks, he’s averaging 2.5 receptions and 16.8 receiving yards per game. He’ll face a Saints defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 6th fewest receiving yards per game (180.6). The Jets are 6.5-point underdogs and this game has just a 40.5 implied total. The Saints allow the 13th fewest receiving yards and 13th fewest receptions to TEs. The Saints run single-high at the 4th highest rate in the league (58.9%). Ruckert averages 1.41 YPRR and 21% TPRR against single-high this season. That compares to 0.97 YPRR and 12% TPRR against two-high. Not a lot of data to go off of but Ruckert is seeing an expanded role and a 17.5 receiving yards line feels a tad low.

Suggested Pick:

Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

QB Tyler Shough

There is not a single game on the docket that is less attractive than the Jets at Saints in Week 16. The two teams are a combined 7-21 on the season, and are amongst the worst scoring offenses in the league. The NFL schedule requires this game to be played, so we might as well make the best of it. Tyler Shough is coming off last Sunday's game against Carolina, where he actually resembled an NFL starting quarterback. Even on the road, Carolina was shocked by Shough, as he threw for 272 yards and a TD, including a drive that set up a game-winning field goal. After beginning the season 2-10, New Orleans has now won its last two straight. However, Shough and Saints were dealt a big blow on Wednesday when HC Kellen Moore made the announcement that both RB Devin Neal and WR Devaugn Vele would be out for Week 16. With an already depleted offense, Shough will have his work cut out for him this Sunday. The good news is he will be facing a New York Jets team that just fired its defensive coordinator. I still have reservations with Shough, who has only Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson as reliable weapons on offense. However, there are still two really nice spots worth targeting here. The Jets are the only defense in the NFL without an interception. To put this in perspective, the next fewest are SF, MIN and NYG who have all recorded 5 INTs this season. Tyler Shough has thrown five picks this year, but never more than one in a single game this year, and in both of his games against Carolina he didn't have any. Shough is careful with the ball, and the Jets defense is a dumpster fire this year. I also like Shough's rushing total here. The NYJ allow the 10th most rushing YPG (20.9) to opposing QBs, and as I already mentioned Shough is without two starters for Week 16. He also doesn't need to be pressured in order to run, which is a good thing considering the Jets are 30th in pressure rate (30.2%). Over the last four weeks, the Saints QB has posted games of 8-32-0 (vs CAR), 7-55-2 (@ TB), 6-18-0 (@ MIA), 7-22-0 (vs ATL). I look for him to continue using his legs this Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Tyler Shough u0.5 Interceptions (TBD)

Tyler Shough o00.5 Rush Yards (TBD)

RB Audric Estime/Evan Hull

The Saints are decimated at running back right now. Kendre Miller was placed on IR earlier this season, Alvin Kamara is still nursing knee/ankle injuries, and now Devin Neal is out for this Sunday with an injured hamstring. That leaves Audric Estime and Evan Hull at RB this Sunday, who have combined for a total of 98 yards on 20 touches in '25. And it's not like they'll be running behind a healthy offensive line either. Cesar Ruiz is questionable at best for Week 16, and if he isn't available the team would likely be forced to play undrafted free agent Torricelli Simpkins III or veteran journeyman WIlliam Sherman. The Saints certainly didn't envision this happening, but it's where they're at and there just aren't many options anywhere else. For what it's worth, Estime played 24 snaps after Neal left the game, turning 6 touches into 50 yards. As for Evan Hull, he played 19 snaps, where he had 4 touches for 12 yards. The Jets haven't been great against the run, but they've not allowed much in the passing game to RBs. I'm just not comfortable running anybody in this game outside of Chris Olave.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

WR Chris Olave

This is a great spot for Chris Olave to have a HUGE game. Outside of Olave and tight end Juwan Johnson, the Saints are down to table scraps, and tight end is the one position that New York has actually defended well. That leaves the New Orleans WR to do the lion share of work on Sunday. Olave is coming off a week 15 matchup against Carolina, where he had 7 receptions for 85 yards and a TD, his 6th of the season. Devaughn Velle left Sunday's game with an injured shoulder and will be sidelined this week, and this has major significance to this week because Vele actually out-targeted Olave 26 to 23 over the past four games. Upon Vele's exit, Olave saw a 38.9% target share with 4.11 YPR. Considering how shredded the Saints backfield is, he should occupy a big target share when he faces a Jets defense that has struggled mightily since losing Sauce Gardner. 

Suggested Bet:

Chris Olave o64.5 Rec Yards (-111)

Chris Olave 80+ ALT Rec Yards (+147)

Chris Olave 100+ ALT Rec Yards (+313)

TE Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson's roller coaster narrative continued in Week 15 as the New Orleans tight end caught just 4 balls for 30 yards. On the positive side, Johnson has recorded at least 4+ receptions in his last 5 games, but last Sunday against the Panthers marked the third straight game he has failed to reach 40 yards receiving. Now, he faces the Jets, and the TE position is the one spot they have been consistent in defending all year. New York allows the 10th fewest receiving YPG (46.6) and the 8th fewest receptions per game (4.8). They are also giving up only 6.7 YPT. The one spot where there is some value for Johnson is in the end zone, where NY has surrendered a 7.2% touchdown rate in '25 (7th worst in NFL). With all of that said, I can't trust either side of the line here. It seems like everytime Juwan Johnson has a great matchup he comes up empty, yet in matchups like this week, where he's not expected to do much, he puts up surprisingly good numbers. I would avoid Johnson's inconsistency here.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

The Saints are showing a little life while there is just nothing there for this Jets team. Give me the Saints to win this one by 10+ points. 

Best Bet: Saints -6.5 -115
Lean: Over 40.5 -110
Score Prediction Jets 17 Saints 27

Anytime TD

Best Play (Saints): Juwan Johnson +240

Juwan Johnson is my pick for an Anytime TD this Sunday against the Jets. While I'm not a big fan of receiving props in Week 16, he does provide quite a bit of value to find the end zone. New York ranks inside the top-10 in the NFL in receptions (4.8) and receiving YPG (46.6) allowed to tight ends, however they've allowed the 4th most TDs (7) to this position. Without Devin Neal and Devaugn Vele, this increases Johnson's stock inside the 20-line. He also provides Tyler Shough with a big target at 6-4, 231 lbs.

Adonai Mitchell (Jets) +330

First TD Scorer

Best Play (Saints): Chris Olave +800

While most teams are tanking for a higher draft pick, New Orleans has been one of the few feel-good stories over the past two weeks, notching back-to-back wins over division rivals Tampa Bay and Carolina. Chris Olave has also had a major resurgence at wide receiver, as Tyler Shough has made it known that Olave is his go-to receiver, especially with Rashid Shaheed now in Seattle. Olave's target share ranks in the top-10 among WRs, and he has a solid matchup on Sunday against the Jets, where they find themselves as 4.5 point home favorites.

Adonai Mitchell (Jets) +1500

Parlay #1 (Saints) +325  DK

Chris Olave 70+ Rec Yards
Chris Olave Anytime TD

Parlay #2 (Jets) +542

Brady Cook Over 18.5 Rushing Yards
Breece Hall Over 60.5 Rushing Yards
Adonai Mitchell Over 40.5 Receiving Yards

QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen and the Bills are 10-point road favorites against the Browns. Josh is averaging 234 passing yards per game, 8.07 YPA and has a 70% completion rate. He’s thrown 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He’ll face a Browns defense that ranks 6th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the fewest passing yards per game. Myles Garrett and the Browns have the 2nd highest pressure rate (44.2%) and the most sacks (18) in the NFL. They play man coverage 40% of the time and single-high 67.6% of the time, #2 and #1 highest frequencies respectively amongst NFL defenses. CB Denzel Ward did not play last week with a calf injury, his status will need to be monitored throughout the week. The Browns pass defense has sizable negative splits with Ward off the field. Against pressure, Josh averages 6.95 YPA, a 50% completion rate and a 68.1 QB rating. He’s also scrambled 42 times for 395 rushing yards. Against man coverage, Allen averages 7.02 YPA, a 61.3% completion rate and an 87.1 QB rating. Against single-high safeties, he averages 8.07 YPA, a 68% completion rate and a 99.3 QB rating. Allen’s overall QB rating is 104.3, so these are all negative splits. Add in the fact the Bills are 10-point favorites, I like Allen under on passing yards.

Suggested Pick:

Under 217.5 Passing Yards (-114)

RB James Cook

James Cook averages 101.1 rushing yards per game on 5.23 YPC. He has 10 rushing touchdowns. He’ll face a Browns defense that ranks 2nd toughest in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 14th fewest rushing yards per game. However, they have declined as the season has progressed. Since week 8, the Browns allow the 12th most YPC (4.39) and the 7th most rushing yards per game (137.9). The Browns have struggled more against man/gap, allowing 5.26 YPC compared to 3.38 YPC against zone concepts since week 8. Cook has a 50-50 split between the 2 concepts, but has been more productive in zone concepts. Averaging 5.51 YPC with a 59.8% success rate, compared to 4.94 YPC and a 54% success rate in man/gap. Since the Browns lost their starting DT Maliek Collins to a season ending injury 2 weeks ago, they have allowed 208 rushing yards to the Titans backfield and 129 total yards to the Bears backfield. Considering the Bills are 10-point favorites and Cook has excelled even in tough matchups, I like Cook’s overs.

Suggested Pick:

Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

100+ Rushing Yards (+210)

Anytime Touchdown (-129)

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir is averaging 46.4 receiving yards per game, 1.90 YPRR, has been targeted on 23% of his routes and leads the team in 1st-read rate at 22.7%. He’ll face a Browns defense that ranks 6th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the fewest passing yards per game. Myles Garrett and the Browns have the 2nd highest pressure rate (44.2%) and the most sacks (18) in the NFL. They play man coverage 40% of the time and single-high 67.6% of the time, #2 and #1 highest frequencies respectively amongst NFL defenses. CB Denzel Ward did not play last week with a calf injury, his status will need to be monitored throughout the week. The Browns pass defense has sizable negative splits with Ward off the field. When Josh has been pressured, Shakir averages 1.07 YPRR and 12% TPRR. Shakir has negative splits against man coverage, averaging 1.60 YPRR and 21% TPRR. Against single-high, He has positive splits averaging 2.16 YPRR and 25% TPRR. Shakir has lined up in the slot on 69.4% of his routes. The Browns specifically allow the 12th fewest YPRR to the slot (1.72). The Bills are 10-point favorites so Josh Allen and the Bills may not need to do a lot of passing.

Suggested Pick:

Under 18.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110)

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid is averaging 52.3 receiving yards per game, 3.23 YPRR, has been targeted on 28% of his routes and has a 1st-read rate of 18.2%. The only knock on Kincaid has been that he’s only run a route on 46% of dropbacks. He’ll face a Browns defense that ranks 6th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the fewest passing yards per game. Myles Garrett and the Browns have the 2nd highest pressure rate (44.2%) and the most sacks (18) in the NFL. They play man coverage 40% of the time and single-high 67.6% of the time, #2 and #1 highest frequencies respectively amongst NFL defenses. CB Denzel Ward did not play last week with a calf injury, his status will need to be monitored throughout the week. The Browns pass defense has sizable negative splits with Ward off the field. When Josh has been pressured, Kincaid averages 1.38 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. Kincaid has negative splits against man coverage, averaging 2.67 YPRR and 28% TPRR. He also has slight negative splits against single-high, averaging 3.09 YPRR and 26% TPRR. The Browns have been a bit less daunting against opposing TEs, ranking 15th in receiving yards allowed to the position. The Bills are 10-point favorites so Josh Allen and the Bills may not need to do a lot of passing.

Suggested Pick

Over 2.5 Receptions (-130)

QB Shedeur Sanders

Shedeur Sanders comes into this matchup trending in the wrong direction against a defense that is structurally built to limit his strengths. After flashing upside in Week 14, Sanders regressed badly against Chicago, throwing three interceptions while averaging just 5.1 YPA and struggling to push the ball downfield. Buffalo deploys the third-highest rate of two-high safeties (58%), forcing quarterbacks to sustain long drives and limiting explosive plays. Against two-high shells this season, Sanders averages just 6.81 YPA with a -5.1% CPOE, and his rushing output has been modest (56 total yards on 83 dropbacks). The Bills have been ruthless at compressing the field, allowing the fewest passing yards per game (183.4) and holding opposing QBs to 175 or fewer passing yards in six of their last eight games. With Cleveland likely forced into obvious passing situations, Sanders’ efficiency profile points toward another capped ceiling outing.

Suggested Play:

‘U’ 177.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Quinshon Judkins

Judkins’ recent box scores look ugly, but the underlying matchup is far more favorable than his last two games suggest. Despite managing just 47 rushing yards combined over the past two weeks, Judkins continues to dominate workload, leading the backfield with a 66% snap share, 75% carry share, and 55% route share. Buffalo’s defensive front has been leaking production all season, allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (115.1) and the most rushing TDs per game (1.3) to running backs. The Bills have also struggled with downhill runners lately, giving up 148 yards and two scores to TreVeyon Henderson last week. Judkins hasn’t been efficient, but volume plus red-zone opportunity against this front keeps him firmly in play to find the end zone.

Suggested Play: 

Anytime Touchdown (+100)

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy draws a brutal schematic matchup that aligns poorly with both his recent form and his season-long efficiency metrics. He has failed to clear 51 receiving yards in 11 of his last 13 games, and against two-high safety looks he’s been almost completely neutralized, averaging just 0.65 YPRR and a 13% target rate on 226 routes. Buffalo’s secondary excels at taking away boundary receivers, allowing the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game (87.1) to wideouts aligned outside. Even when opportunities arise, Jeudy has struggled to capitalize, highlighted by his touchdown-turned-interception last week. With Sanders likely forced into short throws and checkdowns, Jeudy profiles as a low-efficiency, low-ceiling option again.

Suggested Play:

‘U’ 37.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Harold Fannin

Harold Fannin remains heavily involved in Cleveland’s passing structure, but this is one of the toughest possible matchups for tight ends. Buffalo allows the fewest receptions per game (2.7) and the second-fewest receiving yards per game (32.8) to the position, consistently erasing middle-of-the-field production with layered zone coverage. While Fannin has commanded strong usage recently — including a 40% target share last week — efficiency has been limited against similar defenses, and Buffalo’s two-high looks force tight ends to win underneath in extremely tight windows. Volume keeps him involved, but explosive upside is minimal in this spot.

Suggested Play: 

‘U’ Receptions

Josh Allen vs Sanders. I think you know where I'm going with this. Yeah give me the Bills to win this one on the ground and control the clock in a low scoring game.

Best Bet: Under 42.5 -130
Lean: Bills -9.5 -120
Score Prediction Bills 27 Browns 14

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (Browns) Quinshon Judkins Anytime TD +100

Judkins’ recent box scores look ugly, but the underlying matchup is far more favorable than his last two games suggest. Despite managing just 47 rushing yards combined over the past two weeks, Judkins continues to dominate workload, leading the backfield with a 66% snap share, 75% carry share, and 55% route share. Buffalo’s defensive front has been leaking production all season, allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (115.1) and the most rushing TDs per game (1.3) to running backs. The Bills have also struggled with downhill runners lately, giving up 148 yards and two scores to TreVeyon Henderson last week. Judkins hasn’t been efficient, but volume plus red-zone opportunity against this front keeps him firmly in play to find the end zone.

James Cook (Bills) -120

1st TD Picks

Longshot (Browns) Jerry Jeudy First TD +2130

Jerry Jeudy as a first touchdown play is a thin but defensible angle if you’re targeting a scripted-opening-drive outcome rather than overall volume. Cleveland has shown a willingness to dial up aggressive shots early in games before defenses settle into their preferred coverage structures, and that’s where Jeudy’s best chances come. Buffalo’s two-high safety look is designed to limit explosive plays over the course of four quarters, but it can still be stressed early if the Browns use motion, condensed splits, or play-action to isolate Jeudy on a single defender. Jeudy continues to run nearly every route, logging a 93% route share last week, and if Cleveland reaches scoring position on its opening drive, he’s one of the few receivers capable of winning quickly on a slant or fade near the goal line. While his overall efficiency has been poor, first-touchdown markets are about timing and play-calling more than sustained success, and Jeudy’s role as the primary perimeter receiver gives him a narrow but real path to scoring before Buffalo fully clamps down.

James Cook (Bills) +475

Parlay #1 (Browns) +820

Quinshon Judkins ATD
Jerry Jeudy ATD

Parlay #2 (Bills) +527

James Cook 100+ Rushing Yards
James Cook Anytime Touchdown
Dalton Kincaid Over 2.5 Receptions

QB Gardner Minshew 

The journeyman takes over under center after Patrick Mahomes’ season-ending ACL injury, and while the ceiling clearly drops, the matchup itself remains favorable, even though the Chiefs are now eliminated from playoff contention. Tennessee has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game (249.4) and the sixth-most passing TDs per game (1.8) to opposing quarterbacks, including multiple passing scores in four straight games. The Titans’ zone-heavy approach (nearly 50% Cover 3 and Cover 4 combined) has been particularly vulnerable to timing-based throws and intermediate routes, which fits Minshew’s profile as a rhythm passer willing to distribute quickly rather than hold the ball. Kansas City is still likely to lean pass-heavy given game script and personnel, and Minshew’s willingness to throw into tight windows gives him a path to modest production even without explosive upside.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 212.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Kareem Hunt 

Kareem Hunt continues to split work with Isiah Pacheco, but his role in the passing game and red-zone usage keeps him relevant. Hunt led the backfield in snap share and route share last week, and Andy Reid may opt to stabilize the offense with a slightly heavier rushing emphasis now that Mahomes is out. Tennessee has quietly struggled to keep running backs out of the end zone, allowing the second-most rushing TDs per game (1.1) while also ranking middle-of-the-pack in yardage efficiency. Even in a timeshare, Hunt’s usage near the goal line and on check-downs gives him multiple avenues to contribute if Kansas City reaches scoring position.

Suggested Play: 
Anytime TD (+150)

WR Rashee Rice (OUT)

WR Xavier Worthy

Worthy continues to struggle with consistency, but the matchup finally offers a potential breakout window. Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game (119.1) and the second-highest YPRR (2.44) to receivers aligned out wide, repeatedly giving up chunk plays on the perimeter. Worthy’s route participation dipped last week, but his speed still forces defensive respect, and Kansas City may look to manufacture touches or take a few calculated deep shots to stretch coverage. While the floor remains low, this is one of the few spots where Worthy’s role aligns with a defensive weakness.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ Receiving Yards

TE Travis Kelce

The veteran TE remains the most stable piece of the Chiefs’ offense, even with a quarterback change. He’s reached 43+ receiving yards in 12 games and continues to command targets in high-leverage situations. Tennessee has been vulnerable to tight ends recently, allowing back-to-back 22.8+ FP performances to the position, including explosive outings from George Kittle and Harold Fannin. The Titans’ zone coverages often leave space over the middle, and Minshew has historically been comfortable targeting tight ends as safety valves. Kelce’s chemistry and route nuance give him the best chance on the roster to sustain production regardless of game script.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 44.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

QB Cam Ward
Ward had a nice spot as a passer last week against San Francisco and he was solid (for him). He finished 18 of 29 for 170 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also ran once for 2 yards and did not get sacked for the first time this season. The day certainly could have been bigger if he hit a couple of deeper passes that were there. He also had a couple brutal drops by his pass catchers. On the season, Ward is 278 of 469 (59.3% completion rate) for 2,638 yards, 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He is averaging 5.62 yards per pass attempt, a low 59.28% first-read rate and a 2.35% turnover-worthy throw rate. He should have thrown two interceptions last week, but both were dropped. He walks into a tougher matchup this week, but if the run game continues to get push, it should open up things for the passing game. KC is a pretty stingy defense, only allowing multiple passing touchdowns four times this season. They have allowed just the 23rd most passing yards per game, but 6th highest completion rate to QB’s. KC runs two-high defense at the 6th highest rate in the NFL. Ward ranks just 28th in passer grading against two-high coverages. This doesn’t look like the spot to back Ward, even though it should be a competitive game.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 32.5 Passing Attempts (-130)

RB Tony Pollard
Tony continued his late season resurgence with another great game - 14 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown. He also added a catch for 8 yards. Over the past two weeks Pollard has amassed 40 touches for 273 yards and three touchdowns. As we talked about last week, the change at center seemingly has made a huge difference. On the season, Pollard has 189 carries for 847 yards and 5 touchdowns. He only owns a 4.23% explosive run rate and 4.48 yards per carry, while averaging 2.27 yards after contact per carry. Coming off two 100-yard rushing efforts, he faces a much taller task this week. Kansas City’s defense has only allowed a single 100-yard rusher this season (James Cook). Of course, the Chiefs offense took a major hit with the loss of Mahomes last week. I think this game will be competitive and we’ve seen more Pollard usage the last couple of weeks (just under 72% of backfield touches). Yes, he probably won’t register another 100-yard rushing game, but we only need about half of that to cash his over. With injuries on both sides of KC and a flourishing run game the last few weeks, let’s back Pollard here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

RB Tyjae Spears
Spears has taken a back seat to Pollard the last couple of weeks, but the efficiency was there last week. He had just 3 carries, but for 34 yards. He added a pair of catches for just 2 yards. This season, Spears holds 50 carries for 211 yards and a touchdown. He’s averaging 4.22 yards per carry and a 4% explosive run rate. His 38% success rate is really low, while averaging just 2.02 yards after contact per carry. It seems that Pollard has settled into the 1A role while Spears is the 1B. The only place you can trust Spears in a tough rushing matchup is in the pass game. He has 2+ receptions in every game (outside of his 17 snap debut). It’s either backing his receptions or staying away for me.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-145)

WR Elic Ayomanor
There was so much hope for Ayomanor after seeing some early season flashes of his potential. He had another lousy effort last week, catching only one pass on one target for 17 yards. However, he did run the most routes of any wide receiver last week (25). This season, Ayomanor has a 12.28 aDOT, 15.2% target rate with only a 47.69% catch rate. His 10.77% drop rate is really concerning and likely why Ward hasn’t been looking his way. He averaged 11.94 yards per receptions and 3.26 yards after the catch per reception. His 68.1 passer rating when targeted is not impressive. KC is a tough matchup. They’ve allowed 11th fewest receiving yards per game and 7th lowest touchdown rate. The matchup gets a little easier with top cornerback Trent McDuffie out. His numbers have gotten so low, there is probably value there. I just can’t back this kid until he shows some more consistency throwing the ball.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 2.5 Receptions (-110) - LEAN

WR Chimere Dike
Dike continues to be the best pass catching option in this offense. He finished last week with 4 catches on 5 targets for 17 yards. He added a carry for -7 yards as well. The production wasn’t there, but the volume was good. Dike this season has 38 receptions for 301 yards and three touchdowns. He was also an elite returner and used in the run game some. Typically this would not be a good matchup for Dike. KC has allowed the 27th most receiving yards per game to slot wide receiver. However, that was with elite slot corner Trent McDuffie, who is out this game. As a result I think Dike could take advantage of his low line. I’ll take his over here.
Suggested Picks
‘O’ 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE’s Chigoziem Okonkwo and Gunnar Helm
Despite the presence of Helm, Chig remained involved. He tied with Helm and Dike for the most receptions last week (4). On those 4 catches he registered 33 yards. Helm did score a touchdown on a 34-yard touchdown. However, Chig still ran more routes - 18 to 10. Ward has thrown the ball to tight ends at the 9th highest rate in the league. Unfortunately Kansas City has been stingy to opposing tight ends. They have allowed the 4th fewest targets (5.64), 6th fewest receptions (4.64) and 12th fewest receiving yards (47.4) to opposing tight ends. We’ve gotten different lines for these two. When Helm is out there he’s been targeted on 23.4% of his routes, holding a 1.6 yards per route run. This looks like a spot to fade Chig.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

This will be a different feeling for Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo as they are out of the Playoffs. Meanwhile Titans are still playing like they are. Titans @Home give the Chiefs a run for their money.

Best Bet: Titans +3.5 -110
Lean: Under 38.5 -120
Score Prediction Chiefs 17 Titans 20

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (Chiefs) Travis Kelce Anytime TD +150

Kareem Hunt continues to split work with Isiah Pacheco, but his role in the passing game and red-zone usage keeps him relevant. Hunt led the backfield in snap share and route share last week, and Andy Reid may opt to stabilize the offense with a slightly heavier rushing emphasis now that Mahomes is out. Tennessee has quietly struggled to keep running backs out of the end zone, allowing the second-most rushing TDs per game (1.1) while also ranking middle-of-the-pack in yardage efficiency. Even in a timeshare, Hunt’s usage near the goal line and on check-downs gives him multiple avenues to contribute if Kansas City reaches scoring position.

Longshot: (Titans) Tony Pollard +650
Over the past two weeks Pollard has amassed 40 touches for 273 yards and three touchdowns. As we talked about last week, the change at center seemingly has made a huge difference. I'm not expecting a monster game from Pollard, but he's owned the backfield the last couple of weeks and should get any goal line work that comes with it.

1st TD Picks

Longshot: (Titans) Chimere Dike +1500
Dike is the team leader in redzone looks for TEN this season. I love that he has multiple ways to score. He could catch a pass, be used in the run game and is an elite kick returner. He plays primarily out of the slot, which is typically a tough matchup. However, with no Trent McDuffie, it should be a much better one. Hey, maybe Dike runs back the opening kickoff to cash us out early? TEN should be competitive in this game.

Parlay #1 (Chiefs) +275

Gardner Minshew ‘O’ 212.5 Pass Yards

Travis Kelce ‘O’ 44.5 Receiving Yards

Rashee Rice ‘O’ 5.5 Receptions

Parlay #2 (Titans) +437
Chimere Dike 30+ Receiving Yards
Tony Pollard 50+ Rushing Yards
Elic Ayomanor under 2.5 Receptions

QB Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert draws one of the most favorable statistical matchups he’s seen in weeks, even though his recent production hasn’t reflected it. He’s failed to eclipse 220 passing yards in five straight games and has accounted for multiple touchdowns just once during that stretch, but Dallas continues to be a get-right opponent for quarterbacks. The Cowboys deploy Cover 3 (36%) and Cover 2 (21.4%) on 57.4% of snaps, and Herbert has been efficient against those looks, averaging 8.27 YPA with a strong 9.6% CPOE while also adding value with his legs (133 rushing yards on 207 dropbacks). Dallas is allowing the most passing yards per game (270.9) and the most passing TDs per game (2.2) to QBs, and they’ve surrendered multiple passing scores in 11 of 14 games. Even with the Chargers leaning conservative lately, the matchup forces volume if Dallas can score at all.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 246.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Omarion Hampton

Omarion Hampton continues to function as the early-down runner in a true split backfield, and while his role isn’t explosive, it remains stable. He’s handled 12+ carries in six of seven games, leading the backfield in carry share again last week (52%), but his snap and route involvement lag behind Kimani Vidal. Dallas has been neutral against the run overall, allowing the 15th-fewest rushing yards per game (91.2), but they’ve quietly struggled with RBs in the passing game, giving up the second-most receiving yards per game (46.9) to the position. Hampton isn’t heavily used as a receiver, which caps his upside, and Dallas has done a solid job limiting early-down efficiency. Without clear red-zone dominance, his scoring equity is fragile.

Suggested Play:

‘U’ 46.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey hasn’t produced consistently in recent weeks, but his usage profile still keeps him firmly in play for a scoring outcome. He continues to run routes on nearly every dropback, and Dallas’ defensive structure creates openings for quick-hitting slot concepts near the goal line. The Cowboys deploy Cover 3 and Cover 2 on over 57% of snaps, looks that naturally funnel targets inside when defenses compress in the red zone. While McConkey’s yardage efficiency has dipped, his role on option routes, shallow crossers, and motion looks gives him access to schemed touches inside the 10-yard line. Dallas has also shown a tendency to lose leverage on slot receivers in scoring situations, evidenced by multiple short-area TDs allowed to interior alignments over the last month.

Suggested Play: 

Anytime TD (+145)

WR Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen continues to see opportunity without payoff, falling short of double-digit output in seven straight games despite steady route involvement. Since Oronde Gadsden’s emergence, Allen’s target depth and red-zone usage have declined, and against Dallas’ primary coverages he’s averaging just 1.24 YPRR. That said, Dallas has been one of the weakest teams in the league at defending boundary receivers, allowing the third-most YPRR (2.39) and 13th-most receptions per game to wideouts aligned outside. Allen remains a high-percentage option in short areas, and Dallas’ tendency to give up extended drives creates opportunities for volume-based accumulation even if explosives are limited.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-120)

TE Oronde Gadsden

Oronde Gadsden showed signs of life last week after a month-long downturn, posting 4/61 on 5 targets and snapping a four-game stretch of low involvement. Still, his season-long efficiency against Cover 3 and Cover 2 has been poor, averaging just 0.73 YPRR, and his role remains volatile week to week. Dallas sits middle-of-the-pack versus tight ends, allowing the 13th-most receiving yards per game (55.5), but they rarely allow tight ends to dominate scoring drives. With Allen and McConkey soaking up underneath targets, Gadsden’s production is heavily touchdown-dependent.

Suggested Play: 

‘U’ 38.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

QB Dak Prescott

Dak just keeps getting it done, falling six yards short of throwing for 300 for the fourth consecutive week. He's truly matchup proof, which is why we aren't too worried about him going up against this Chargers defence. Los Angeles allows the 5th fewest completions (18.1), the 8th fewest pass attempts (30.1), the 3rd fewest passing yards (190.4) and the fewest passing TDs (0.9) per game to opposing QBs. The Chargers run the 8th most zone coverage (76.8%), and the 2nd most Cover 4 (23.4%). Against zone coverage, Prescott has the 6th highest completion percentage (72.5%), ranks middle in the pack in yards per attempt (7.66) and has the 11th highest QBR (95.6). Against Cover 4, Prescott has mid numbers in completion percentage (71.2%) and yards per attempt (7.22), and the 10th lowest QBR (73.3).

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott o254.5 Passing Yards.

RB Javonte Williams

The Chargers allow the 5th fewest rush attempts (19.1) and the 11th fewest rushing yards (86.6) to opposing backs on the ground. Los Angeles runs more concept (47%) than man/gap and allows 4.44 yards per carry against the preferred coverage. Javonte has been better against man/gap this season with a 5.14 yards per carry, but has a respectable 4.61 yards per carry against zone as well. Through the air, they allow the 7th fewest receptions (3.6) and receiving yards (25.2) per game to backs. However, Williams was a complete zero in the passing game last week, not even registering a target. We're hesitant to truly trust Javonte in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

WR CeeDee Lamb

Lamb didn't miss a beat after leaving two weeks ago with a concussion. He stepped up and logged his third straight 100+ receiving yard game. And while the Chargers pose as a difficult defence, so was the Vikings last week, and he still got it done. The Chargers allow the 9th-fewest receptions per game (10.1) and the 5th-fewest receiving yards (120.5), limiting overall production. Against zone coverage, Lamb has been heavily involved, recording 41 receptions on 60 targets for 652 yards while leading the team with a 20.9% target share, driven by a high 79.5% catch rate but reduced efficiency (14.6 yards per reception, 2.29 yards per route run). Cover 4 has also produced volume, with nine receptions on 17 targets for 98 yards and a 26.2% target share. He aligns out wide on 64.2% of his snaps, where Los Angeles allows a middle-of-the-pack target rate, allowing the 4th lowest catch rate (57.6%) and 4th lowest in yards per reception (11.82), reinforcing the likelihood of steady involvement with capped explosiveness. When guys like this are on a roll, it's hard to suggest getting off the ship while it's humming, regardless of the matchup.

Suggested pick:

CeeDee Lamb o77.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR George Pickens

What happened to our golden boy, George Pickens, lately? After logging seven straight weeks of 70+ receiving yards, has 70 receiving yards combined over the last two weeks. And it's not because of a lack of volume; he's logged 13 targets over those games. He has been most productive against zone coverage this season, totalling 54 receptions on 74 targets for 732 receiving yards while commanding a 20.6% target share. He has a higher catch rate (74.2%) in zone, though his yards per reception (14.2) and yards per route run (2.5) dip compared to man coverage. Against Cover 4 specifically, he has been a featured option, recording 15 receptions on 20 targets for 109 yards and a team-leading 27.4% target share. Usage-wise, he lines up out wide on 89.6% of his snaps, which we've already highlighted isn't the ideal matchup. With Lamb taking over the previous few weeks and Pickens struggling, we imagine more of the same in a tough matchup for Pickens.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens u63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Jake Ferguson

Ferguson didn't come through for us last week, in a matchup we loved him. This week, he'll get a Los Angeles defence that allows the 16th most receptions (5.4) but the 15th fewest receiving yards (51.3) per game, limiting efficiency more than volume. Against zone coverage, he has been heavily involved, posting 55 receptions on 63 targets for 440 yards with a 17.5% target share. His 87% catch rate, 8.0 yards per reception, and 1.62 yards per route run are all larger in zone coverage compared to man. His production dips slightly against Cover 4, despite being near perfect, catching eight of nine targets for 55 yards with a reduced 12.3% target share. Usage-wise, he operates primarily inside, lining up in the slot on 55% of snaps, an area where Los Angeles is tested at the 6th lowest target rate, allows the 5th lowest catch rate (64%), and sits middle of the pack in yards per reception (10.5). Nothing spectacular in this matchup for Ferguson, but we're getting a decent discount on his yardage line this week, so let's take it.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson o33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

I think we see a shootout. Give me the over 

Best Bet: Over 50.5 -114
Lean: Cowboys ML -125
Score Prediction Chargers 27 Cowboys 30

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Chargers) Ladd McConkey Anytime TD +145

Ladd McConkey hasn’t produced consistently in recent weeks, but his usage profile still keeps him firmly in play for a scoring outcome. He continues to run routes on nearly every dropback, and Dallas’ defensive structure creates openings for quick-hitting slot concepts near the goal line. The Cowboys deploy Cover 3 and Cover 2 on over 57% of snaps, looks that naturally funnel targets inside when defenses compress in the red zone. While McConkey’s yardage efficiency has dipped, his role on option routes, shallow crossers, and motion looks gives him access to schemed touches inside the 10-yard line. Dallas has also shown a tendency to lose leverage on slot receivers in scoring situations, evidenced by multiple short-area TDs allowed to interior alignments over the last month

Best Pick: (Cowboys): Javonte Williams Anytime TD (-140)

Williams has scored in three straight games coming into this matchup against the Chargers, who allow the 8th most rushing TDs (0.86) per game to opposing RBs – the same number of TDs they allow through the air this season to opposing QBs. And if you believe in patterns, the Chargers have allowed a rushing TD one week, and then not the next. That has repeated over the past four weeks, and is on track to allow a rushing TD this week.

1st TD Picks

Best Bet (Chargers) Keenan Allen First TD +1175

Keenan Allen remains one of Justin Herbert’s most trusted receivers in scripted opening drives, even as his overall production has declined. Early in games, Los Angeles continues to lean on Allen’s route precision and chemistry with Herbert to move the chains and attack coverage tendencies before defenses adjust. Dallas’ perimeter coverage has been a consistent liability, allowing the third-highest YPRR to outside receivers, and they’ve struggled with veteran route runners who can win quickly off the line. Allen’s ability to separate on slants, pivots, and fades makes him a strong candidate to capitalize if the Chargers reach the red zone on their opening possessions. If Los Angeles scores early through the air, Allen is the most likely receiver to be featured in that first scoring sequence.

Parlay #1 (Chargers) +445

Oronde Gadsden ‘U’ 38.5 Receiving Yards

Keenan Allen ‘O’ 3.5 Receptions

Omarion Hampton ‘U’ 46.5 Rush Yards

Parlay 2: (Cowboys) +280 odds on bet365

Dak Prescott 250+ Passing Yards

CeeDee Lamb 100+ Receiving Yards

QB JJ McCarthy

Is JJ McCarthy starting to figure it out? He just threw for 250 passing yards and has five passing TDs in the previous two weeks. McCarthy enters this matchup against the New York Giants, facing a defence that allows volume and production through the air. New York gives up the 10th most completions (21.8), pass attempts (33.7), and passing yards (242.4) per game, along with the 9th most passing touchdowns (1.7), while also allowing the most quarterback rushing yards in the league (25.5). The Giants lean heavily into man coverage, running it at the 3rd-highest rate (39%), and are especially aggressive with Cover 1, which they deploy on 31.3% of snaps. Against man coverage, McCarthy has been inefficient overall, posting a middle-of-the-pack completion rate (54.2%) and the 6th-lowest QBR (62.4), though he does generate chunk plays with the 10th-highest yards per attempt (7.37). Versus Cover 1 specifically, his numbers remain volatile, with an 8th-lowest completion percentage (52.3%), but respectable efficiency in the middle tier for both yards per attempt (7.66) and QBR (79.5). The matchup points toward a high-variance outing, where McCarthy may struggle with consistency against tight man looks, but has been turning it around of late. Do I have trust in him just yet? Not really. However, he has been a threat with his legs, so expect him to use them a bit more against the team who allow the most rushing yards to opposing QBs per game.

Suggested pick:

JJ McCarthy o17.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Aaron Jones

It was a bad day on the ground for Jones, but that was expected against a much-improved Cowboys rush defence. Jones enters the matchup against New York facing a run defence that bleeds efficiency despite modest volume. The Giants allow the 13th fewest rush attempts per game (21) but surrender the 2nd most rushing yards (123.6), driven by poor gap integrity and explosive runs, especially against man/gap concepts. New York leans heavily on man/gap schemes (44.5%) over zone (35.7%), and that’s where they’re most vulnerable, allowing a massive 6.46 yards per carry compared to 4.77 against zone. Jones, however, has been more effective versus zone (4.14 YPC) than man/gap (3.98 YPC), creating a mild efficiency mismatch if the Giants stick to their tendencies. In the passing game, New York allows the 6th most running back receptions (4.9) and the 12th most receiving yards (33.6). After failing to register a target two weeks ago, Jones went back to his receiving ways, catching all three of his targets for 31 receiving yards. Jones is heavily relied-upon option for McCarthy in this passing game, and we're still getting plus money on Jones to get three receptions? Even when he logged that in six of his last seven games? Okay, we'll take that, thank you.

Suggested Pick:

Aaron Jones 3+ Receptions (+110)

WR Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson draws a favourable volume matchup in Week 13 against the New York Giants, a defence that allows the 8th most receptions (12.1) and the 5th most receiving yards (163.7) per game. Jefferson continues to function as the clear focal point of the Vikings’ passing game, leading the team in target share against both man coverage (31.6%) and Cover 1 (32.9%). Against man, he has totalled 17 receptions on 36 targets for 195 yards, while against Cover 1, he has produced 13 receptions on 28 targets for 141 yards. His efficiency dips in man coverage, where his catch rate (41.2%), yards per reception (11.6), and yards per route run (1.3) all trend lower, but the volume remains elite. Jefferson aligns outside on 72.7% of his snaps, a key factor against a Giants defence that targets outside receivers at the 12th-highest rate and allows the 4th-highest catch rate (65.8%), though with the 10th-lowest yards per reception (12.9). The profile points to strong reception and yardage potential driven by usage, but that's just not what it's been for Jettas lately. I'm done being fooled, and can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm officially in to prove it to be territory, especially in this good matchup this week.

Suggested pick:

Pass

WR Jordan Addison

Jordan Addison outproduced Jefferson yet again. Does that continue this week against the man-heavy Giants? Against man coverage, Addison has turned 14 targets into eight receptions for 195 yards, posting a 15.7% target share. Those numbers result in a 53.8% catch rate, 12.9 yards per reception, and 1.01 yards per route run, which are all fewer than his zone splits. He has delivered similar involvement versus Cover 1, catching six of 10 targets for 85 yards with a 15.4% target share, reinforcing his role as a secondary but explosive option. Addison aligns out wide on 78.6% of his snaps, positioning him primarily on the perimeter where we've discussed the Giants struggle against volume. However, Addison is the deep ball target, and we can expect him to catch another long ball, as he did for us last week when he hauled in a 58-yard reception.

Suggested pick:

Jordan Addison o20.5 Longest Reception (-115)

TE TJ Hockenson

TJ Hockenson enters the matchup against New York coming off a his highests yardage outing of the season. The Giants do well at limiting TE volume, but allow consistent production, allowing the 11th fewest receptions per game (5.9) while giving up the 14th most receiving yards (53.3). Against man coverage, Hockenson has produced just seven receptions on nine targets for 48 yards, posting a modest 7.9% target share. He has a higher catch rate (87.5%) against the coverage, but a lower yards per reception (6.3) and yards per route run (0.44) compared to his zone splits. His numbers against Cover 1 are similar in volume — six receptions on seven targets for 44 yards with an 8.2% target share — but without the same efficiency bump seen versus man. Alignment plays a key role, as Hockenson has run 43.6% of his snaps inline, an area where the Giants tend to suppress production by targeting at the sixth-lowest rate, allowing the 11th-lowest catch rate (76.4%) and the 11th-lowest yards per reception (9.28). It was great to see Hockenson do well last week; however, that was against one of the heavier zone coverage teams in the league. Now, he faces a man-heavy team with his production more than cut in half. So we don't have high hopes for the Vikings TE turning in a productive day.

Suggested pick:

TJ Hockenson u30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jaxson Dart

Jaxson Dart continues to show growth as a dual-threat quarterback, but this matchup presents one of the most structurally difficult environments he’s faced all season. Minnesota deploys two-high safety shells at a league-high 68.4% rate, consistently forcing quarterbacks to operate underneath and sustain long, mistake-free drives. That approach has been extremely effective, as the Vikings have allowed just one passing touchdown total over their last five games, while holding quarterbacks to 196.9 passing yards per game (fifth-fewest). Dart’s efficiency dips sharply against this coverage type, where he averages only 5.30 yards per attempt with a slightly negative CPOE, and his explosive play rate drops significantly. While his rushing ability remains a legitimate factor — especially on broken plays — Minnesota’s disciplined edge containment limits designed quarterback runs and forces scrambles to be contested. With the Vikings consistently shrinking the red zone and daring teams to execute perfectly, Dart profiles as a quarterback who may move the ball but struggle to finish drives through the air.

Suggested Play: 

‘U’ 196.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Tyrone Tracy

Tyrone Tracy has emerged as the clear centerpiece of the Giants’ offense, both in terms of workload and game-flow importance. Over the last month, he has dominated the backfield, leading in snap share, carry share, and route share, while consistently logging double-digit touches and meaningful passing-game involvement. Tracy has recorded 97+ scrimmage yards in three of his last four games, and his recent usage near the goal line signals growing trust from the coaching staff. Minnesota’s run defense is stout up front, allowing the fourth-fewest adjusted yards before contact, but they’ve quietly been vulnerable once offenses commit to volume and tempo. The Vikings have surrendered multiple rushing touchdowns in recent weeks as teams prioritize ball control and minimize exposure against their secondary. Tracy’s ability to contribute as both a runner and receiver gives him multiple paths to production, and his role inside the 10-yard line keeps him squarely in play even if overall efficiency is capped.

Suggested Play: 

Anytime TD (+140)

WR WanDale Robinson

Wan’Dale Robinson remains the most reliable and stable piece of the Giants’ passing game, particularly against coverage structures that emphasize limiting explosive plays. Since Malik Nabers exited the lineup, Robinson has consistently functioned as the primary slot receiver and first read on quick concepts, posting 5+ receptions in eight of his last ten games. Minnesota’s two-high approach naturally funnels targets inside, and while the Vikings rank among the league’s best at limiting slot efficiency, volume remains available through short-area routes, option concepts, and designed touches. Robinson’s role as Dart’s safety valve ensures steady involvement regardless of game script, especially on third downs and early drives. While his matchup suppresses big-play upside, his target consistency and route profile make him one of the safest ways for New York to stay on schedule offensively.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 5.5 Receptions (-130)

TE Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson has quietly carved out a dependable role within the Giants’ offense, logging 3+ receptions in 10 of his last 11 games while maintaining a strong snap rate and steady target presence. He’s frequently utilized on intermediate routes and sit-downs against zone coverage, providing Dart with a reliable option when defenses take away the perimeter. However, Minnesota has been extremely effective at defending tight ends, allowing just 50.9 receiving yards per game to the position and ranking near the top of the league in limiting tight end efficiency and red-zone success. The Vikings’ linebackers and safeties excel at closing throwing windows and preventing yards after the catch, which significantly lowers Johnson’s ceiling. While his role should keep him involved between the 20s, this matchup makes sustained yardage accumulation difficult without an unusual spike in volume.

Suggested Play: 

‘U’ 36.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

JJ has looked good the last 2 weeks. Give me the Vikings to steal a game on the road

Best Bet: Vikings -2.5 -125
Lean: Over 42.5 -120
Score Prediction Vikings 24 Giants 21

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Giants): Tyrone Tracy Anytime TD +140

Tyrone Tracy has firmly established himself as the focal point of the Giants’ offense, particularly in scoring situations. Over the past month, he has dominated the backfield in snap share, carry share, and route share, while also seeing consistent red-zone usage as both a runner and receiver. Tracy has accounted for multiple goal-to-go opportunities recently, and his versatility allows New York to keep him on the field regardless of personnel or defensive alignment. Minnesota’s defense remains strong against early-down efficiency, but they’ve shown cracks near the goal line, allowing multiple rushing touchdowns in recent weeks as opponents commit to ball control and limit exposure against the secondary. With the Vikings deploying heavy two-high shells, the Giants are incentivized to finish drives on the ground, giving Tracy multiple paths to score via inside carries, check-down receptions, or broken plays near the end zone.

Best Pick: (Vikings): Jordan Addison TD (+175)

Mason is the red zone/goal line back and has started to work more and more in this Vikings run game since Jones returned. He has two TDs in his previous five games, compared to Jones' zero. The Giants allow just shy of a TD per game to the RB position.

1st TD Picks

Best Bet (Giants): WanDale Robinson First TD +1240

Wan’Dale Robinson profiles as a strong first-touchdown candidate due to his early-drive involvement and role-specific usage. Since Malik Nabers left the lineup, Robinson has functioned as Jaxson Dart’s primary chain-mover, commanding high target rates on scripted plays, quick-game concepts, and red-zone designs that attack space rather than size. Minnesota’s league-high rate of two-high safeties naturally funnels targets underneath, which aligns perfectly with Robinson’s skill set on option routes, shallow crossers, and quick outs. The Vikings have limited perimeter scoring but have been more vulnerable to slot receivers on opening possessions, especially on misdirection and condensed formations. If the Giants script a pass-heavy opening drive to test coverage discipline, Robinson is the most likely receiver to be schemed open near the goal line before defensive adjustments set in.

Parlay #1 (Giants) +530

Jaxson Dart ‘U’ 196.5 Pass Yards

Theo Johnson ‘U’ 36.5 Receiving Yards

Tyrone Tracy ATD

Parlay 1: (Vikings) +330 odds on bet365

JJ McCarthy 20+ Rushing Yards

Aaron Jones 3+ Receptions

QB Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield has found new life with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, resurrecting his career and establishing himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He’s thrown for 2,999 yards and 22 touchdowns against just seven interceptions this season. That said, he has been met with several challenges that have limited his production when you compare it to last year, but this is a soft matchup for Mayfield to succeed in when he faces the Carolina Panthers in Week 16. While Mayfield has actually cashed the Under in passing yards in four of his last five games, he did throw for 277 yards last time out against the Atlanta Falcons, and we have to factor in that he’s facing his former team here so there is not doubt he is going to be extremely motivated here. The Panthers have been gashed through the air the past two games for a 68.9 completion percentage and 8.44 YPT, while allowing the 5th highest dropback success rate and ranking 24th in pass defense DVOA. Now that Mayfield has his full receiving corps back on the field, he can pick apart a Carolina defense generating QB pressure at the second-lowest rate in the NFL and ranking 31st in PFF pass rush grade. Since the Panthers cut ties with Mayfield, he’s 4-0 against them. CAR is 17th in passing yards allowed, and this is a crucial game for the Bucs, who need Mayfield to step up. He’s also the type of player who thrives in a revenge-game environment. 

Suggested Bet:

Baker Mayfield 220+ Pass Yards (-138)

RB Bucky Irving

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving took on the majority of the workload in Week 15, totaling just 71 scrimmage yards on 17 attempts. Since returning from shoulder and foot injuries in Week 13, Irving has totaled 233 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on 53 attempts. Irving faces the Carolina Panthers, who allow the 11 the most rushing YPG (101.7) to opposing RBs. In his only two games against the Panthers in his career, he has posted 185+ yards from scrimmage in both of those games. In a must-win game for the Buccaneers and with his favorable history against Carolina, I expect Irving to unleash in Week 16.

Suggested Bet:

Bucky Irving 80+ Rush (+) Rec Yards (-153)

WR Mike Evans

Mike Evans is back just in time for the Buccaneers. In his very first game back after missing six games due to a broken collarbone, the six-time Pro Bowl wideout showed not apparent signs of rust, catching 6 of his 10 targets for 132 yards. This week, the Panthers will host Tampa Bay in a pivotal game for two teams tied atop the NFC South, their first of two meetings over the next three weeks to close out the regular season. Evans figures to see his fair share of cornerback Jaycee Horn, a player against whom he’s had success in the past. For his career, Evans has been targeted on 42.3% of his targets against Horn, which is a sign he could see the ball often in Week 16. For the season, Horn’s 63.2 PFF coverage grade ranks 51st among 112 qualifying cornerbacks. Evans was eased back into action against the Falcons despite his impressive stat line. His 38 snaps were the third most on the team, well behind Chris Godwin (66) and Emeka Egbuka (44). It would be a surprise if his snap total weren’t significantly higher this week in a game that has playoff implications, and he’s shown time and time again that he steps up when the stakes are at their highest. In Evans last three matchups vs Carolina he has posted games of 8-97-2, 8-118-1 and 7-162-1. And let's not forget how upset Evans was leaving the field after the Bucs Week 15 debacle vs Atlanta.

Suggested Bet:

Mike Evans o63.5 Rec Yards (-113)

Mike Evans 80+ ALT Rec Yards (+158)

Mike Evans 100+ ALT Rec Yards (+310)

WR Emeka Egbuka

Buccaneers wide receiver Emeka Egbuka’s 64 receiving yards were his most in the last five games, and was also the only time in that span he surpassed this projected total. Since Week 6, Egbuka has the lowest catchable target rate and the second-highest drop rate of any receiver in that span. And while it didn’t show last week, Egbuka now has much more competition for targets, as Mike Evans played only half the snaps and was still the top target last week, while Chris Godwin led the team in routes and snaps. Plus, when you account for Bucky Irving's likely production out of the backfield against at Carolina team who has strugged against the run all year, this is a worrisome spot for Emeka on Sunday. I'm taking a pass here.

Suggested Bet:

Emeka Egbuka u3.5 Receptions (-156)

WR Chris Godwin

Considering he's entering Week 16 with a receiving total set at only 33.5 yards, this is an extremely favorable matchup for Chris Godwin. The Bucs receiver primarily operates out of the slot, where the Panthers allow the 9th most yards of any team to opposing slot receivers this season. The presence of Mike Evans makes this a great opportunity for Godwin to exceed a relatively low yardage total. He has seen steady involvement since returning from injury, with five or more targets in two of his last three games. This is almost a criminal line for a player in Godwin who for the first time since the beginning of the 2024 season, is playing at 100%.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Godwin o33.5 Rec Yards (-115)

QB Bryce Young

Young has put up at least 15 rushing yards in each of the Panthers last three games, and I like his odds to extend the streak to four. He’s not a prolific runner by any means, but he’s had at least four rushing attempts in the last three weeks, and I could see him escaping from the high pressure Tampa Bay likes to impose. The Bucs have allowed the third-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season, and if Young can be opportunistic with his legs, it adds another dimension to the offense for which Tampa Bay has to account.

Suggested Bet:

Bryce Young 10+ Rush Yard

RB Rico Dowdle

Two key factors put me on this under for Rico Dowdle this Sunday. First, Chubba Hubbard is really eating into Dowdle's workload. Rico's snap rate has been back under 60% the past two weeks, the lowest mark we've seen since Week 8. Second, the Buccaneers are a tough team to run on. They rank 6th against the run, and opponents react accordingly. Tampa Bay has faced a pass on early downs 57.0% of the time, well above the league average of 52.5%. Due to both Hubbard's role and some spotty effectiveness, Dowdle has gone under 58.5 yards in five straight games and 6 of 8 overall since Hubbard's return. I have a hard time envisioning a return to form in such a difficult matchup.

Suggested Bet:

Rico Dowdle u58.5 Rush Yards (-117)

WR Tetaroia McMillan

McMillan has put together an impressive rookie campaign, though his involvement has dipped over the last few weeks. That should change in this matchup, as Carolina will need him to play a significant role offensively. McMillan has 59 catches, which ranks 37th in the NFL. While he hasn’t cleared this line in his last three games, this feels like a spot where the Panthers make a concerted effort to get him more involved against Tampa Bay. Early in the season, McMillan was heavily targeted, and Carolina was winning games during that stretch. If the Panthers want to stay in the NFC South race, this is a must-win game, and that starts with McMillan delivering a standout performance. McMillan’s versatility only helps this prop. He’s used on quick screens, short routes, and intermediate throws, giving him multiple paths to reach four receptions. I expect Carolina to establish the run early, and even if they don't find success, this is going to lead to plenty of volume for the Panthers WR.

Suggested Bet:

Tetaroia McMillan o3.5 Receptions (-115)

WR Jalen Coker

Jalen Coker is starting to heat up now that he has a full-time role in this offense. Over the past two weeks, he's posted 60 and 74 receiving yards, while seeing at least 4 targets in five consecutive games. This week, he faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that has been eviscerated by opposing QBs since 12, where they've allowed 1,098 passing yards to go with 8 touchdowns. With Tetaroia McMillan cooling in this offense, Coker is trending up at just the right time.

Suggested Bet:

Jalen Coker o39.5 Rec Yards (-108)

Best Bet: Buccaneers ML (-155)
Lean: Under 45.5 (-112)
Score Prediction: 27-14

While most of the country is down on the Bucs right now (and rightfully so), I have seen Tampa Bay as the main character in this NFC South narrative multiple times over the year, and twice in the past five years alone. TB has a healthy receiver corps for the first time all season, and quarterback Baker Mayfield aired it out for his second highest passing-yards total (277) on Thursday Night Football last week since airing it out for 379 yards through the air in a Week 5 victory vs the Seahawks. Jason Pierre-Paul was also just signed by the Bucs. He's certainly beyond his prime, but he's fresh, healthy and in phenomenal shape. He gives the Bucs edge the rusher they've so desperately needed, and even at the age of 36, JPP's is still talented enough to give Tampa four to six weeks worth of high level play. Most importanly, being on the road will not play a role in this game. Outside of San Francisco, the Bucs are the only team to beat Seattle (12-3) on the road, and they've also won at NRG Stadium in Houston (9-5). The Panthers cut Mayfield two years ago, and he's still not forgotten it. This is also a very soff matchup for him to find success. Baker is a perfect 4-0 vs Carolina since signing with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has laid an egg two weeks in a row, but they've had 10 days to prepare for this game, and I expect them to play with a HUGE chip on their shoulders on Sunday in Carolina.

Anytime TD Pick

Best Play (Buccaneers): Mike Evans +140

Mike Evans was put on this planet to score touchdowns. Most people assumed he would be eased back into action in his return from injury last week, but instead he got peppered with 12 targets. The Falcons managed to keep him out of the end zone, but don’t expect the Panthers to replicate the feat. Since Week 8, Carolina ranks 26th in EPA per opponent drop back. Evans has averaged 93 receiving yards in his last 10 matchups versus the Panthers, scoring 11 TD in those outings..

First TD Scorer

Best Play (Buccaneers): Mike Evans +800

I think it's safe to say that Evans is fully healthy after turning 12 targets into 132 yards last week. He should see the same type of target volume in a game the Bucs absolutely have to have, not only for the division, but for the playoffs in general. Evans was absolutely livid after Tampa Bay's loss to Atlanta on TNF ten days ago, and he will be on a mission today. I look for Baker Mayfield to feed Evans early and often from the very first snap in this game.

Parlay #1 (Buccaneers) +320  DK

Baker Mayfield 220+ Pass Yards

Mike Evans 60+ Rec Yards

Mike Evans Anytime TD

Parlay #2 (Panthers) +292  DK

Bryce Young 10+ Rush Yards 

Rico Dowdle u56.5 Rush Yards

Jalen Coker 25+ Rec Yards

Parlay #3 (Lotto) +7000

Mike Evans 100+ Rec Yards 

Mike Evans Anytime TD

Jalen Coker 40+ Rec Yards

Jalen Coker Anytime TD

QB Joe Burrow

In the 4 games that Burrow has finished this season, he is averaging 220.8 passing yards per game, 6.13 YPA and a 61.1% completion rate. He’s thrown 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Burrow is coming off his first shutout of his career and a game that he referred to as “one of the worst games I’ve ever played”. He’ll try to bounce back against a Dolphins defense that ranks 10th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 13th fewest passing yards per game. Higgins missed last week with a concussion, but practiced in a limited capacity. Burrow has sizable on/off splits with Higgins on/off the field in the past few seasons, he provides another weapon the opposition has to game plan against. Miami runs two-high at the 6th highest rate (56.1%). Burrow averages 6.09 YPA, a 66.2% completion rate and a 93.9 QB rating against two-high this season. That compares to 6.12 YPA, a 55.4% completion rate and a 75.8 QB rating against single-high. The Bengals are 4-point favorites on the road against the Dolphins, who will be starting rookie QB Quinn Ewers for the first time. Nice spot for a bounce back, especially if Higgins returns.

Suggested Pick:

Over 257.5 Passing Yards (-112)

RB Chase Brown

In the first 6 weeks of the season, Chase Brown averaged 33.7 rushing yards per game on 2.73 YPC. In the past 8, he’s averaging 72.3 rushing yards per game on 5.21 YPC. After having an 82%+ snap rate in 3 straight games without Perine, Brown has had a 58.8%, 66.1% and 62% snap rate in the past 3 weeks with him back. Despite Perine back, Brown has still had a healthy route participation rate, at 52.1%, 48.6% and 65.9% in the past 3 weeks. Brown will face a Dolphins defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Rush and allows the 6th most rushing yards per game (132.1). The Dolphins allow the 5th most YPC on zone rush concepts (4.73) and the 15th most YPC against man/gap (4.42). Chase has a 50-50 split between the 2 concepts, averaging 4.28 YPC in zone compared to 4.03 YPC in man/gap. In the receiving game, Brown is averaging 24 yards per game, 1.07 YPRR and 24% TPRR. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that has allowed the 8th most receiving yards and 9th most receptions to RB. 

Suggested Pick:

Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

WR Ja’Marr Chase

Chase is averaging 88.2 receiving yards per game, 2.27 YPRR and has been targeted on 30% of his routes. He dominates in 1st-read rate at 40.4%. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks 10th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 13th fewest receiving yards per game. Miami runs two-high at the 6th highest rate (56.1%). Chase averages 2.14 YPRR and 23% TPRR against two-high. Chase has lined up out wide on 65.9% of his routes and in the slot on 33.3%. Miami allows the 6th fewest YPRR to wide alignment (1.75) and the 16th most YPRR to the slot (1.76). This game has a 47.5 point implied total and the Bengals are 4-point favorites. I expect Chase to dominate per usual. 

Suggested Pick:

Over 86.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins did not play last week as he was in concussion protocol. He has strung together some limited practices this week, so I’d expect him to return this week. Higgins is averaging 55.6 receiving yards per game, 1.67 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks 10th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 13th fewest receiving yards per game. Miami runs two-high at the 6th highest rate (56.1%). Higgins averages 1.45 YPRR and 17% TPRR against two-high. Higgins has lined up out wide on 88% of his routes this season. Miami allows the 6th fewest YPRR to wide alignment (1.75). This game has a 47.5 point implied total and the Bengals are 4-point favorites. At a 56.5 current receiving yards line, this feels correctly priced.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

TE Mike Gesicki

In the 4 games since his return from injury, Gesicki has run a route on 64.1%, 39.6%, 45.9% and 75% of dropbacks. If Higgins returns, Gesicki’s route participation rate likely drops. He caught just 1 of 2 targets for 11 yards last week despite a 75% route rate. He has just 1 breakout performance this season, against the Bills the prior week, catching 6 of 6 targets for 86 yards and a touchdown. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks 10th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 13th fewest receiving yards per game. The Dolphins are particularly weak against TEs, allowing the 3rd most receiving yards and 4th most receptions to the position. However, their weakness has really been against inline, Gesicki primarily lines up out of the slot, at a 77.8% rate. Gesicki’s lines have not opened yet, likely due to the uncertainty of Higgins status, but either way I’d pass on his props.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

QB Quinn Ewers

Rookie 7th rounder Quinn Ewers will take over for Tua for his first career start. The Dolphins would like to see what they have in Ewers. In Ewers junior season with Texas, he averaged 7.8 YPA, a 65.8% completion rate and threw for 31 TDs and 12 interceptions. It was a bit of a step back from his sophomore season, where he averaged 8.8 YPA, a 69% completion rate and threw for 22 TDs and 6 interceptions. Since week 7, the Dolphins are dead last in pass rate over expected. I’d expect this game plan to heavily rely on Achane and the run game. Ewers will face a Bengals defense that ranks 2nd worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 5th most passing yards per game (245.9). Ewers has played just 10 dropbacks, completing 5 of 8 attempts for 53 yards, 6.63 YPA. Not much to go off of here but hard to trust a rookie QB in his first start, regardless of matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Under 192.5 Passing Yards (-115)

RB De’Von Achane

Achane averages 84.7 rushing yards per game on 5.79 YPC. He leads the league in explosive run rate amongst qualified RBs at 10.2%. Explosive runs account for 45.6% of total yards (541). Achane will face a Bengals defense that allows the most rushing yards per game (157.9) and the 3rd most YPC (5.34). Their 7.2% explosive run rate allowed ranks 3rd highest. 95 out of 205 rush attempts for Achane this season have been outside zone. The Bengals allow the most YPC (6.01) and the highest explosive run rate allowed (9.3%) against outside zone runs. Since week 7, the Dolphins have the highest run rate over expected. With rookie QB Quinn Ewers making his first start, expect the Dolphins to go extremely run heavy. In the receiving game, Achane averages 32.1 receiving yards per game, 1.57 YPRR and has been targeted on 28% of his routes. He has a solid 64.1% route participation rate as well. The Bengals allow the 3rd most receiving yards per game to RB. With a rookie QB making his first start, I also like McDaniels to draw up some short passes and/or screens to Achane to help build his confidence. Smash spot for Achane.

Suggested Pick:

Over 115.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-118)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Prior to Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, Waddle averaged 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.75 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 25.6% 1st-read rate. In the 10 games without Tyreek, Waddle is averaging 65.3 receiving yards per game, 2.71 YPRR, 28% TPRR and a 31.9% 1st-read rate. Waddle has lined up out wide on 76.3% of his routes since Tyreek went down. He’ll face a Bengals defense that ranks 2nd worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 5th most receiving yards per game (245.9). The one caveat here is Ewers will make his first career start at QB, so there's a bit of an unknown here on what this offense will look like. Since week 7, the Dolphins are dead last in pass rate over expected. I’d expect this game plan to heavily rely on Achane and the run game. 

Suggested Pick:

Under 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Darren Waller

Week 13 was Waller’s first action since week 7 due to a pec injury, he ran a route on 65.5% of dropbacks. He caught 2 of 3 targets for 47 yards. In week 14, his route share decreased to 54.5% as Greg Dulcich cut into some of Waller’s playing time, who had a 50% route participation rate. Dulcich was more productive, catching 3 of 3 targets for 41 yards. Waller caught just 1 of 3 targets for 13 yards. In week 15, Waller’s route participation rate rose back up to 63.6%, while Dulcich dropped to 33.3%. Waller caught 7 of 8 targets for 66 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Steelers. Now he’ll get another bullish matchup against the Bengals, who’s allowed the most receiving yards, most receptions and most receiving TDs to TE on the season. The one caveat here is Ewers will make his first career start at QB, so there's a bit of an unknown here on what this offense will look like. Since week 7, the Dolphins are dead last in pass rate over expected. I’d expect this game plan to heavily rely on Achane and the run game. However, if there’s one receiving threat I’m betting on for the Dolphins this week, it’s Waller.

Suggested Pick:

Over 2.5 Receptions (-130)

4+ Receptions (+193)

5+ Receptions (+451)

Anytime Touchdown (+280)

Joe Burrow will get a win on the road. Do not overthink this one

Best Bet: Bengals -4.5 -110
Lean: Under 47.5 -115
Score Prediction Bengals 30 Dolphins 14

Anytime TD Picks

Darren Waller (Dolphins) +240

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) -145

1st TD Picks

DeVon Achane (Dolphins) +450

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) +550

Parlay #1 (Bengals) +322

Joe Burrow Over 258.5 Passing Yards
Ja’Marr Chase Over 87.5 Receiving Yards
Chase Brown 20+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (Dolphins) +322

Devon Achane Over 115.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
Jaylen Waddle Under 53.5 Receiving Yards
Darren Waller 4+ Receptions

QB Trevor Lawrence
What a game by Lawrence last week. He went 20 for 32 for 330 yards and five passing touchdowns (career high). He also led the team in rushing with 5 carries for 51 yards and a touchdown. Six total touchdowns?! This is the upside Lawrence possesses that we’ve seen mostly in spurts throughout the season. Maybe he’s putting it all together with a great head coach? He’s thrown for 8 yards per pass attempt or better and multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games. On the season, Lawrence has 273 completions on 457 attempts (60% completion rate) for 3,210 yards, 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He’s thrown for a 9.14 aDOT with a 2.6% turnover-worthy throw rate and a high 9.41% drop rate. He’s pressured on 32.1% of dropbacks this season with a 6.1% sack rate. He faces a much tougher matchup this week, as Denver is allowing a 58.5% completion rate (3rd lowest), 6.4 yards per pass attempt (7th lowest), and a 2.9% touchdown rate (3rd lowest). The Jags find themselves as underdogs in this game. In games where they’ve lost, Lawrence has cleared 3 of 4 games with the only miss against the best defense in the league (Houston). I’ll take a heavier game script in this one.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 32.5 Passing Attempts (-115)

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
Etienne had a classic game last week. He either has a really nice week or a brutal one as a runner. He had just 12 carries for 32 yards. However, he excelled as a pass catcher, grabbing three balls for 73 yards and three touchdowns! Tuten is now sidelined for at least a couple of weeks so this should easily be Etienne’s backfield this week. This season, Etienne has 213 carries for 949 yards and 7 touchdowns. He owns a 3.76% explosive run rate, a 48.4% success rate and 2.03 yards after contact per rush. He faces a really tough matchup this week against a strong DEN defense. Denver has allowed 3.9 YPC to running backs (8th lowest) and a run of 10 or more yards on 6% of running back runs, second lowest in the league. Denver has allowed the 4th fewest rushing yards per game (74.7). This along with a more rare likely negative game script for this offense, I’ll fade Etienne here.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 15.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)
‘U’ 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Jakobi Meyers
Meyers has been the perfect addition to this offense. As a result, he just landed a 3-year $60 milling extension. Last week he grabbed five balls for 71 yards on 7 targets. Meyers saw the field a ton for a team-high 97% of dropbacks. This season, Meyers has reeled in 60 catches for 707 yards and 3 touchdowns between the Raiders and Jaguars. He owns a 9.33 aDOT, 11.4 yards per reception and 4.53 yards after the catch per reception. This matchup is tough. DEN has allowed only 5 touchdowns to receivers ALL SEASON. DEN is allowing just 6.7 yards per target and the lowest touchdown rate to wide receivers (1.8%). I think Patrick Surtain will likely shadow Thomas more given he’s more of a downfield threat. That should open up more for Meyers underneath.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-150)

WR Brian Thomas Jr.
I really worry about Thomas in this matchup despite some recent success. Last week he caught 4 of 7 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. BTJ led the team with a 33% first-read rate and is averaging 2.1 yards per route run over the last three weeks. Thomas has had a disappointing season with only 29 receptions on 75 targets (52% catch rate) for 601 yards and two touchdowns. He owns a 19.6% target share and 32.4% air yardage share. He averages 15.4 yards per reception and a 24.4% first-read rate. I think Surtain shadows Thomas as a deep threat and he gets the clamps. I think we see a pullback game from Thomas is a brutal matchup for him. Unfortunately, his season does end on a complete high with this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Brenton Strange
Strange was very quiet last week outside of one catch for 26 yards last week. He had 3 targets in that game. Strange continues to look like a deeper threat tight end. He owns a 14.5% target share, 12.34 yards per route run and a 7.29 aDOT. He holds a 76.2% catch rate and a solid 5.69 yards after the catch per reception. He’s a bit of an after the catch monster in this offense. If there is a weakness in the DEN passing defense it’s the tight end. They are allowing 7th most targets (8.57), 13th most receptions (5.64) and 7th most receiving yards (64.1) per game. 27.5% of receptions allowed by the Broncos have gone to the tight end this season. They have allowed some solid games to tight ends recently: Dalton Schultz (6-77-0), Travis Kelce (9-91-1), Zach Ertz (10-106-0), Brock Bowers (4-46-1), and Luke Musgrave (4-52-0). It’s a good spot to back Strange here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Bo Nix

Can Bo Nix lead the Broncos to their 12th straight win? It'll be tough against a Jaguars team who have won five of their own. The Jaguars allow the 3rd most completions (23.6) and the most pass attempts (37.4) per game, yet only the 13th most passing yards (236.4) and the 12th most passing touchdowns (1.6). They lean heavily on zone, running the coverage at the 4th highest rate (78.3%) and deploy Cover 6 at the 2nd-highest rate (20.9%). Against zone, Nix has struggled, posting the 6th-lowest completion rate (65.1%), 4th-lowest yards per attempt (6.43), and 10th-lowest QBR (86). His numbers against Cover 6 are similarly muted, with a middle-of-the-pack completion rate (70%) but the 3rd-lowest yards per attempt (5.22) and an average QBR (82.2). But this should be a high-flying game, and Nix can't afford to take his foot off the gas pedal.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix o36.5 Pass Attempts (-105)

RB RJ Havey

Harvey had a decent day on the ground last week, rushing for 65 yards on his 19 attempts, finding the end zone. But it'll be a tough matchup for Harvey on the ground this week, as the Jaguars allow the fewest rush attempts (17.8) and rushing yards (66.6) per game. Jacksonville leans heavily on zone concepts (43.4%) and is quite efficient doing so, allowing just 3.98 yards per carry in the coverage. That's not the best news for Harvey, who struggles against zone, averaging just a 3.18 yards per carry. When it's not working on the ground for him, Harvey can be utilized in the pass game. That's where the Jaguars can kind of be exploited, allowing the 13th most receptions (4.5) and receiving yards (33.5) to opposing backs. Don't expect a big week from Harvey on the ground, but watch for him to make an impact through the air.

Suggested Pick:

RJ Harvey u50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Courtland Sutton

Biggest week since Week 3 of this season for Sutton last week, when he caught seven of his 10 targets for 113 receiving yards and a TD. This week, he gets a Jaguars defence allowing the 3rd-most receptions per game (12.9) but only the 16th-most receiving yards (141.6). Sutton has thrived on zone looks, posting 46 receptions on 69 targets for 613 yards while leading the team in target share (17.4%). He has a higher catch rate (65.6%) in zone coverage, but a lower yards per reception (13.5) and yards per route run (1.64) compared to his man splits. Against Cover 6, he has been efficient in limited volume with five catches on seven targets for 68 receiving yards on a 14% target share. Spending most of his time out wide (81.6%), the Jaguars are targeted at the highest rate to the alignment, allowing the 10th highest catch rate (64.9%), but the 5th lowest yards per reception (11.82). It's a good matchup for Sutton to continue his high-volume games, having logged 10 targets in back-to-back games.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton o4.5 Receptions (-135)

WR Troy Franklin / Pat Bryant

We'll keep this short and sweet. It was looking promising that Bryant was moving into the WR2 role and surpassing Troy Franklin. However, he missed last week. And in his absence, Franklin went off, hauling in six of his seven targets for 85 receiving yards and a TD. But now that Bryant is returning, we have no indication of who is truly going to be the WR2 for the Broncos this week. For that reason, we aren't going to suggest either receiver before we see Bryant regain that role, or Frankin did enough to take it back from him.

Suggested pick:

Pass

TE Evan Engram

Ugh. It's been a brutal two-week stretch for Engram, turning his five targets into three receptions for just 20 receiving yards. But we like a bounce-back spot for him this week in a revenge game against his former team from a year ago. The Jaguars allow the 9th most receptions per game (5.9) but the 7th fewest receiving yards (45.5) to opposing TEs. Engram has been most active against zone coverage, catching 36 of 53 targets for 301 yards with a 14.2% target share, boosted by a higher catch rate (69.8%) and yards per route run (1.40) than his splits against man coverage. Against Cover 6, his role spikes, leading the team with a 20.4% target share, turning that into six catches on 10 targets, but for just 30 yards. Engram lines up inline on 44.8% of his routes. To that alignment, Jacksonville allows a middle-of-the-pack target rate, a low catch rate (12th lowest), but strong yards per reception (6th highest). So, not only coverage-wise, but alignment-wise, poses a good matchup for Engram, throw in the revenge angle, and it should be a good week for the Broncos TE.

Suggested pick:

Evan Engram o26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Evan Engram 40+ Receiving Yards (+210)

Jags have looked so damn good. This is my underdog pick of the week. Give me the Broncos to take care of business

Best Bet: Jags +3.5 -120
Lean: Over 45.5 -145
Score Prediction Jaguars 24 Broncos 21

Anytime TD Picks

Longshot (Jaguars): Trevor Lawrence +475
This is a tough matchup for the the rushing and passing game. Lawrence has shown us all season that he isn't afraid to use his legs. He has 6 rushing touchdowns on the season and led the team in rushing last week. In a game script that could have them playing from behind and good pressure for the Denver front I think Lawerence could find the endzone himself.

Best Pick: (Broncos): Courtland Sutton TD (+190)

I feel these are pretty good odds for Sutton, considering he's far and away the leading receiver in this game, as well as with his 10+ targets over the final two weeks. Sutton has scored in two of the last three weeks and is up against a Jaguars defence, which is allowing nearly a full TD (0.93) per game to opposing WRs.

1st TD Picks

Longshot (Jaguars): Brenton Strange +1900
Strange has legitamate deep threat prowess in his game. Tight ends are the only plus matchup against this DEN defense. They are allowing 7th most targets (8.57), 13th most receptions (5.64) and 7th most receiving yards (64.1) per game. 27.5% of receptions allowed by the Broncos have gone to the tight end this season. They have allowed some solid games to tight ends recently: Dalton Schultz (6-77-0), Travis Kelce (9-91-1), Zach Ertz (10-106-0), Brock Bowers (4-46-1), and Luke Musgrave (4-52-0). 

Parlay #1 (Jaguars): +925
Brenton Strange 40+ Receiving Yards
Jakobi Meyers 4+ Receptions
Trevor Lawrence TD

Parlay 1: (Broncos) +360 odds on bet365

Bo Nix 35+ Pass Attempts

Courtland Sutton 5+ Receptions

Evan Engram 30+ Receiving Yards

QB Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins is coming off his best game of the season, as the Atlanta veteran completed 30 of 44 passes (68.2%) for 373 yard and a TD in Week 15 at Tampa Bay. This Sunday, he will face an Arizona defense that is coasting into the final stretch on fumes. In their past five games, the Cardinals have allowed a 68.8% completion rate (3rd worst), 8.3 YPPA (5th worst) and a league-high 9.0% touchdown rate to opposing QBs. Arizona has allowed 3 TD passes in 4 of their last 5 games. It also appears that the Falcons will get Drake London back for Sunday's game, so that should provide Cousins and the offense with a shot in the arm too. With the way the Falcons QB protects the ball, I like his chances to throw multiple touchdowns here.

Suggested Bet:

Kirk Cousins o1.5 Pass TDs (-129)

RB Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson turned 27 touches into 175 yards and a TD against Tampa Bay on TNF nearly ten days ago. The Falcons third-year running back finds himself on the cusp of his first 2,000 season. Bijan has totaled 1,858 yards (1st in NFL) through his first 14 games of the season, and is just 142 yards short of this milestone. Atlanta has especially leaned on him heavily over the last three weeks, where Robinson has gotten 28, 22 and 27 touches, and against the Buccaneers, he handled a season-high 93.1% of the touches out of the backfield. It certainly appears as if Atlanta is working hard to try to get him 2,000 yards this year. He enters Week 16 with a superb matchup against an Arizona team that has allowed 5.3 YPC since Week 10. As a result, the Cardinals have surrendered a league-high 140.8 rushing YPG (140.8) during this stretch. The point total here is set at 48.5 points, so we're expecting a highly offensive script here. There is no reason to not back Bijan to put up big numbers again this Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Bijan Robinson o90.5 Rush Yds (-115)

Bijan Robinson o18.5 Longest Rush (-110)

WR Drake London

WR Darnell Mooney

Suggested Bet:

Pass

TE Kyle Pitts

Suggested Bet:

Kyle Pitts o48.5 Rec Yards (-115)

QB Jacoby Brissett

Despite losing 11 of their last 12 games, including six straight, Jacoby Brissett continues to put up big numbers on the offensive side, whether it be because of favorable matchups or garbage time production. This week provides yet another opportunity for Brissett to have a big game when they face Atlanta, who over their past eight games, have allowed a massive 7.8 YPPA (9th highest) and a 5.9% TD-rate (9th highest). With a 48.5 point total, the books are expecting either, A) a shootout or B) late ARI garbage points. Jacoby Brissett has gone over his passing yards total in all nine of his starts this season. He has thrown the ball at least 40+ times in six straight contests, averaging a whopping 45.7 pass attempts per game over that span. The Cardinals have struggled to run the ball and have practically abandoned that part of their offense altogether. They are second in the NFL in passing play percentage (65.4%), with that number ballooning to 72.5% over the last six weeks. Lastly, it will be a beautiful, sunny 76-degree day at State Farm Stadium, which should be conducive for plenty of throwing from a pair of teams with absolutely nothing to play for.

Suggested Bet:

Jacoby Brissett 250+ Pass Yards (-129)

Jacoby Brissett o37.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

RB Michael Carter

WR Michael Wilson

TE Trey McBride

I like the over here. 

Best Bet: Over 48.5 -120
Lean: Cardinals +3.5 -115
Score Prediction Falcons 24 Cardinals 31

Anytime TD

Best Play (Falcons): Kyle Pitts +135

Even dealing with a slight knee injury, these odds are too good for a player who is coming off a 3-TD performance, especially considering he is facing a Cardinals defense who has allowed the 4th most touchdowns (7) to opposing tight ends this season. Pitts should have multiple opportunities to find holes in the end zone in a game with an expected point total of 48.5 and climbing.

Best Play (Cardinals): Trey McBride +105

What more can possibly be said about Trey McBride. He's scored 10 touchdowns this season, including nine TDs in 7 of his last 9 since Jacoby Brissett took over the starting QB job from Kyler Murray. Anytime Arizona needs points McBride has risen up to the challenge. It's really hard to imagine him not finding the end zone against a Falcons team, who over their last eight games has the 9th highest TD rate allowed (5.9%). Atlanta has allowed only two touchdowns to opposing TEs this season, but that didn't phase McBride last week as he recorded a pair of TDs against the Houston Texans, who entered Week 15 surrendering just four total on the season. Even with the Falcons success vs tight ends, we have a high implicated point total suggested here, and there is enough volume alone to be confident here.

First TD Scorer

Best Play (Falcons): Bijan Robinson +350

A first time TD scorer of +350 may not seem like sexy odds in comparison to what we typically see, but we must put things in perspective here that this is still an excellent number. Bijan Robinson provides multiple options to score, and he has arguably the best running back matchup of the week. Arizona has surrendered the 3rd most rushing TDs this season (14), along with 4 reception scores. Bijan has the luxury of going up against a Cardinals defense that  has allowed 5.3 YPC and an NFL-high 140.8 rushing YPG to opposing RBs going all the way back to Week 10.

Best Play (Cardinals): Michael Wilson +950

Michael Wilson has emerged as one of Jacoby Brissett's favorite end zone targets as of late. The two have connected for 3 touchdowns over the past two weeks, and even if Marvin Harrison Jr plays this Sunday, I still think Wilson remains just under Trey McBride as one of Brissett's top options. Arizona cannot and does not run the ball, and his role has expanded inside the 20-yard line. Wilson has exploited every defensive matchup that's been in front of him. With his target share continuing to rise, he fits perfectly into this slot on Sunday.

Parlay #1 (Falcons) +184  DK

Bijan Robinson 100+ Rush Yards

Bijan Robinson Anytime TD

Parlay #2 (Cardinals) +525

Jacoby Brissett 250+ Passing Yards

Marvin Harrison 50+ Receiving Yards

Trey McBride 7+ Receptions

Michael Wilson 5+ Receptions

QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith continues to operate in one of the league’s worst environments, both structurally and situationally. The Raiders’ offensive line has struggled to protect consistently, and Geno is dealing with lingering shoulder and back issues that have already impacted his availability and effectiveness. He’s thrown for one or fewer TDs in eight of 13 games, and Houston is one of the toughest matchups for passing efficiency. The Texans lean heavily on Cover 3 and Cover 4, looks that Geno has been serviceable against in isolation, but Houston pairs those shells with disciplined rush lanes and strong underneath coverage. They’ve allowed just 1.1 passing TDs per game, and only one quarterback has topped 20 FP against them all season — and that required an extreme negative script. Unless Las Vegas completely abandons the run early, Geno’s ceiling is capped by pressure, limited explosive opportunities, and a defense built to force long drives.

Suggested Play:

‘U’ 194.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Ashton Jeanty

Jeanty’s recent usage has remained steady, but his efficiency has cratered in brutal matchups, and Houston presents another uphill battle. He’s failed to top 35 rushing yards in three straight games, and his underlying metrics paint a clear picture of why: bottom-five marks in stuff rate, explosive run rate, and yards before contact. The Texans are elite at controlling the line of scrimmage, allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game and ranking top-seven in adjusted YBC allowed. While Jeanty still plays on passing downs, Houston is disciplined against RB checkdowns and rarely gives up free yards in space. Without a positive script or short-field opportunities, Jeanty is unlikely to generate chunk plays or touchdown equity organically.

Suggested Play: 

‘U’ 43.5 Rush Yards (-120)

TE Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers remains the Raiders’ most reliable and schemed-up red-zone weapon, especially with the offense struggling to sustain drives through the air. Even in games where quarterback play has dipped or efficiency has cratered, Bowers continues to command targets because of how he’s deployed — detached from the line, motioned into mismatches, and used on quick-hitting concepts that don’t require extended protection. Houston’s defense plays a heavy dose of Cover 3 and Cover 4, which naturally funnels targets underneath and into the seams, areas where Bowers thrives with his size, body control, and run-after-catch ability. While the Texans have limited tight end production overall, the touchdowns they’ve allowed at the position have come when offenses condensed formations and forced linebackers into isolation near the goal line. Given Las Vegas’ lack of consistent perimeter scoring threats and Bowers’ role as the most trusted option inside the 20, he profiles as the Raider most likely to convert a scoring opportunity if they reach the red zone.

Suggested Play: 

Anytime TD (+245)

WR Tre Tucker

Tre Tucker has quietly been the Raiders’ most productive wide receiver over the second half of the season, particularly against zone-heavy defenses. Houston plays zone at an above-average rate, and Tucker’s ability to find soft spots and generate yards after the catch gives him a viable path to modest production even if the offense struggles overall. He’s unlikely to be featured as a primary red-zone option, but his route volume and alignment versatility give him opportunities to clear modest yardage thresholds. With Houston focusing coverage resources on limiting deep shots, Tucker profiles more as a volume-based chain mover than a big-play threat in this matchup.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 26.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

QB C.J. Stroud
Stroud had a nice performance last week in a solid matchup against Arizona. The team dropped 40 points and Stroud went 22 of 29 for 260 yards and 3 touchdowns, with no interceptions. He added 6 carries for 10 yards. He matched a season-high with9 yards per pass attempt with a 76% completion rate. On the season, Stroud is 220 for 337 (65.28% competition rate) for 2,441 yards with 25 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Despite a 6% sack rate, he owns 7.24 yards per attempt, a 8 aDOT and a 2.97% turnover-worthy throw rate. His pass catchers have shown good hands, with just a 2.08% drop rate this season. His pressure rate of 40.4& is one of the highest in the league, thanks to a subpar offensive line. The matchup is once again good, but will the Raiders keep it competitive enough for over production from Stroud? That’s the question. Over the past five weeks, the Raiders have allowed a league-high 75.4% completion rate, 8.1 yards per pass attempt (5th highest), and a 7.7% touchdown rate (2nd highest). HOU just hasn’t really been able to produce a run game this season and I think Stroud will be able to air it out here. I’ll take his over on passing yards.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 221.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Woody Marks
Both Marks and Chubb are questionable for this game. I’m assuming Marks will play based on the comments from the head coach this week. Last week Marks left with an injury so only 7 carries for 30 yards is a good matchup. He also caught a pass for 8 yards and recovered a missed snaps from Stroud which resulted in a touchdown. This season Marks has 167 rushing attempts for 584 yards (3.50 yards per carry) with a pair of touchdowns. He owns an unimpressive 3.59% explosive run rate, 42.5% success rate and 1.98 yards after contact per carry this season. If healthy, Marks walks into a good matchup. After being very solid against the run early this season, the Raiders have allowed an average of 120.2 rushing yards to opposing backfields over the last five weeks. With his health an uncertainty and a split backfield with Chubb or last week’s breakout, Jordan, it’s hard to back his props here.

Suggested Pick
PASS

WR Nico Collins
Nico continued his second half torrid stretch with 3 catches for 85 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week. He could have cleared 100 yards if a 20-yard catch wasn’t called back thanks to a penalty. Since week 9, Collins has averaged 75+ receiving yards per game. On the season, Collins has an aDOT of 12.5 with a 23.4% target share and 62% catch rate. He reeled in 64 receptions on 105 targets for 1,001 yards and 6 touchdowns. He owns a 33.3% team yardage share and 15.64 yards per receptions this season. As long as HOU throws, it should be a good matchup for Collins who has thrived against zone coverage this season. The Raiders run zone at the highest rate in the league. Collins is targeted at the 25th highest rate among wide receivers against zone coverage. LV plays Cover 3 at the highest rate in the league (51.4%) and Collins is averaging a 28.2% target rate and 2.9 yards per route against this coverage. You either back him because you think they throw enough or pass here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-125)

WR Jayden Higgins
Higgins was really quiet last week with just one catch on one target for 4 yards. It’s the first time he’s seen less than 5 targets since week 9 this season. On the season, Higgins has 36 catches on 56 targets (64% catch rate) for 397 yards and 4 touchdowns. He owns an aDOT of 11.88 and an 11.04 yards per reception. He’s the first read in 13.43% of plays and has yet to drop a pass this season. Higgins primarily plays on the outside (80.1%) and LVR is allowing the 6th most passing yards per game to outside wide receivers. I just don’t know if they’ll throw enough to get production outside of Collins and the tight end.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Dalton Schultz
Schultz had a monster game last week with 8 catches on 9 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. He led the team in both targets and receptions. To date, Schultz has an aDOT of 6.53 with an 18.7% target rate and ~20% team yardage share. He has 70 catches on 91 targets (77% catch rate) for 650 yards and 2 touchdowns. He owns a small 2.2% drop rate and 9.29 yards per receptions. He’s not used heavily down the field but provides a good outlet option for Stroud who deals with a lot of pressure. Schult does see a higher target rate against single-high coverage, which Las Vegas plays at a higher rate. Among all tight ends, Schultz ranks 4th in receptions (70) and 6th in receiving yards (650). Despite the Raiders overall struggle, they have been solid against the tight end. They have only allowed three tight ends all season over 50 yards. In a tougher matchup without knowing how much HOU will throw, I’ll fade Schultz here.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions (-125)

This will be LOW scoring! Give me the Under and a Texans Home win 

Best Bet: Under 38.5 -120
Lean: Raiders +14.5 -120
Score Prediction Raiders 10 Texans 23

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Raiders): Brock Bowers Anytime TD 

Brock Bowers remains the Raiders’ most reliable and schemed-up red-zone weapon, especially with the offense struggling to sustain drives through the air. Even in games where quarterback play has dipped or efficiency has cratered, Bowers continues to command targets because of how he’s deployed — detached from the line, motioned into mismatches, and used on quick-hitting concepts that don’t require extended protection. Houston’s defense plays a heavy dose of Cover 3 and Cover 4, which naturally funnels targets underneath and into the seams, areas where Bowers thrives with his size, body control, and run-after-catch ability. While the Texans have limited tight end production overall, the touchdowns they’ve allowed at the position have come when offenses condensed formations and forced linebackers into isolation near the goal line. Given Las Vegas’ lack of consistent perimeter scoring threats and Bowers’ role as the most trusted option inside the 20, he profiles as the Raider most likely to convert a scoring opportunity if they reach the red zone.

Best Bet (Texans): Nico Collins +110
Probably doesn't need a ton of explaining, but Nico has just been "the guy" in this offense. Since week 9, Collins has averaged 75+ receiving yards per game. The Raiders run zone at the highest rate in the league. Collins is targeted at the 25th highest rate among wide receivers against zone coverage. LV plays Cover 3 at the highest rate in the league (51.4%) and Collins is averaging a 28.2% target rate and 2.9 yards per route against this coverage. There is no doubt that Nico should get plenty of work and he can score on the deep ball and inside the redzone. With how ineffective HOU's run game has been this season, they likely won't be able to run their way to a win.

1st TD Picks

Best Bet (Raiders): Ashton Jeanty First TD +1065

Ashton Jeanty remains the most likely Raider to open the scoring if Las Vegas manages an early red-zone trip, simply because of how the offense is structured when it gets close to the goal line. Even with his efficiency metrics trending poorly and running lanes scarce, Jeanty continues to handle the highest-leverage carries, particularly on early downs and inside the five. The Raiders have shown a clear preference to establish physicality early rather than put the ball in the air behind a shaky offensive line, which increases the likelihood of scripted first-drive runs if field position allows. Houston’s defense has been stout overall against the run, but the rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed have largely come on downhill, volume-based attempts rather than explosive plays, fitting Jeanty’s profile. If Las Vegas scores first, the most probable path is a methodical drive capped by a short-yardage rush, making Jeanty the best candidate to find the end zone before anyone else.

Longshot (Texans): Jawhar Jordan +1800
Even if Marks plays, it hard to not see Jordan getting any work in this backfield. He's looked like the most explosive runner of any back we've seen in the Texans backfield. Last week he rushed 15 times for 101 yards and added a pair of catches for 17 yards. We've been waiting for Marks to get more looks out of the backfield and they just haven't been there. It's possible Jordan sees work in the screen game or as a pass catcher too. There is also a chance that Marks is limited or doesn't play.

Parlay #1 (Raiders) +220

Ashton Jeanty ‘U’ 43.5 Rush Yards

Geno Smith ‘U’ 194.5 Rush Yards

Parlay #2 (Texans) +240
Nico Collins TD
Nico Collins 70+ Receiving Yards
C.J. Stroud 200+ Pass Yards

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is averaging 199.5 passing yards per game, 6.99 YPA and a 66.8% completion rate. He’s thrown 22 passing touchdowns and 7 interceptions. The Steelers are 7-point underdogs with a 52 implied total on the road against the Lions. Detroit ranks 14th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 9th most passing yards per game (231.1). The Lions blitz at a top 4 rate (32.5%) and have the 8th highest pressure rate (40.9%). When blitzed, Rodgers averages 7.31 YPA, a 62.3% completion rate and a 106.1 QB rating. The Lions play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (43.4%) and single-high at the 5th highest rate (58.5%). Against man coverage, Rodgers averages 6.04 YPA, a 50% completion rate and a 93.4 QB rating. Rodgers also has negative splits against single-high, averaging 6.76 YPA, a 63.7% completion rate and a 93.7 QB rating. Considering the Lions are relatively stronger against the run, have allowed the T-4th most passing TDs and the Steelers are likely to be playing from behind, I like Rodgers to throw 2 touchdown passes.

Suggested Pick:

Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110)

RB Jaylen Warren/Kenneth Gainwell

Warren and Gainwell have split work as of late, with equivalent 49.3% snap rates over the past 4 weeks. Gainwell has been the more productive RB, averaging 51.8 rushing yards per game on 6.47 YPC since week 12. That compares to 37.3 rushing yards per game on 3.10 YPC for Warren. Gainwell has also dominated the receiving game, with a 48.4% route rate, averaging 32 yards per game on 2.13 YPRR and 35% TPRR. Warren has a 33.9% route rate, averaging 18.3 receiving yards per game on 1.74 YPRR and 21% TPRR since week 12. They’ll face a Lions defense that has allowed the 13th fewest rushing yards per game (106.7) and rank 11th best in EPA/Rush allowed. The Lions are particularly tough against zone rush concepts, allowing the 5th fewest YPC (3.65) and the 5th lowest success rate (43.9%). Both Warren and Gainwell are primarily zone concept runners, accounting for 64.9% and 62.4% of their rush attempts respectively. In the receiving matchup, the Lions are allowing the 2nd fewest receiving yards and 5th fewest receptions to RBs. I’ll fade Warren with a higher line as Gainwell may be taking more and more work from him and this is a tough matchup. 

Suggested Pick:

Warren Under 42.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

WR DK Metcalf

DK is averaging 57.7 receiving yards per game, 2.07 YPRR and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. He leads the team in 1st-read rate at 27.9%. The Steelers are 7-point underdogs with a 52 implied total on the road against the Lions. Detroit ranks 14th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 9th most receiving yards per game (231.1). DK has lined up out wide on 79.3% of his routes. The Lions allow the most receiving yards per game to wide alignment (129.6). The Lions blitz at a top 4 rate (32.5%) and have the 8th highest pressure rate (40.9%). Against the blitz, DK averages just 1.30 YPRR and 16% TPRR. The Lions play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (43.4%) and single-high at the 5th highest rate (58.5%). Against man coverage, DK averages 1.53 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. Against single-high, DK averages 2.49 YPRR and has been targeted on 30% of his routes. WR1s have dominated this matchup and I expect DK to also have a big game. The Steelers are 7-point underdogs with a 52 implied total on the road against the Lions. Detroit ranks 14th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 9th most receiving yards per game (231.1). 

Suggested Pick:

Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

70+ Receiving Yards (+140)

80+ Receiving Yards (+200)

90+ Receiving Yards (+280)

100+ Receiving Yards (+400)

Anytime Touchdown (+170)

TE Pat Freiermuth/Jonnu Smith/Darnell Washington

This tight end group is tough to figure out. A tight end hasn’t led the Steelers in route participation rate for 2 consecutive weeks since week 8. Last week, Washington led the Steelers TE group with a 50% route participation rate, Freiermuth was at 40% and Jonnu was at 23.3%. Darnell caught 3 of 4 targets for 25 yards last week against the Dolphins. Freiermuth caught 3 of 5 targets for 45 yards. Jonnu caught 2 of 2 targets for 12 yards. The Steelers are 7-point underdogs with a 52 implied total on the road against the Lions. Detroit ranks 14th worst in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 9th most receiving yards per game (231.1). The Lions are specifically middle of the pack against TEs. I will not try to figure out Arthur Smith and his TE rotations. 

Suggested Pick:

Pass

QB Jared Goff

Goff continues to function as one of the most stable and efficient pocket passers in the league, particularly in games where Detroit is comfortable leaning into volume rather than protecting a lead. He has now thrown at least one passing touchdown in every game this season and has cleared 255 passing yards in seven straight contests, reflecting both schematic trust and matchup exploitation by Ben Johnson. Pittsburgh’s recent defensive structure leans heavily on Cover 3 and Cover 2, both of which invite intermediate throws between the numbers — an area where Goff excels due to his timing, anticipation, and willingness to attack leverage pre-snap. Over the last month, the Steelers have struggled to limit sustained drives, allowing opposing quarterbacks to account for multiple total touchdowns in four straight games. With Detroit’s offensive line consistently giving Goff clean pockets and the Steelers’ pass rush generating pressure inconsistently without blitzing, Goff should be positioned to repeatedly finish drives through the air rather than relying solely on the run game near the goal line.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 265.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

While Gibbs’ most recent box score looks modest, the underlying usage profile remains extremely strong and arguably points to positive regression. He continues to dominate snap share, carry share, and route participation over David Montgomery, which keeps him involved regardless of game script. Pittsburgh’s run defense has quietly shown cracks when facing backs with speed and receiving versatility, as evidenced by De’Von Achane’s ability to stress them horizontally and in space last week. The Steelers also rank in the bottom half of the league in adjusted yards before contact allowed, indicating that their defensive front is being displaced more frequently than earlier in the season. Even if Montgomery siphons some short-yardage work, Gibbs’ access to explosive runs, perimeter touches, and designed pass concepts gives him multiple paths to clearing yardage benchmarks without requiring heavy touchdown dependence.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’117.5  Rush + Rec Yards (-120)

WR Amon-Ra St Brown

St. Brown remains the clear focal point of Detroit’s passing offense and is coming off a game in which he commanded an elite target share across all areas of the field. His usage profile is particularly well-suited for this matchup, as Pittsburgh continues to concede volume to slot receivers while prioritizing limiting deep perimeter shots. St. Brown thrives against zone coverage, consistently finding soft spots between linebackers and safeties, and his route diversity allows him to stay heavily involved on early downs, third downs, and in the red zone. The Steelers have allowed elevated reception totals to high-volume slot receivers in recent weeks, and Detroit has shown no hesitation in peppering St. Brown with double-digit targets even when defenses key on him. Given his role as both a possession receiver and a primary red-zone option, volume once again appears secure.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 7.5 Receptions (+100)

WR Jameson Williams

Williams continues to operate as Detroit’s primary vertical stressor, but his role has expanded beyond pure deep shots. He’s now seeing a more consistent target floor while still maintaining his explosive-play upside, which creates a difficult problem for defenses that are already stretched horizontally by St. Brown. Pittsburgh’s outside coverage has been vulnerable to speed receivers when safeties are forced to respect the middle of the field, and recent games show breakdowns when corners are isolated without help. Williams’ efficiency metrics against zone coverage remain respectable, and Detroit has shown an increasing willingness to script him touches rather than relying solely on scramble-drill or low-percentage bombs. In a game where Goff should have time to push the ball downfield, Williams’ combination of route depth and yards-after-catch potential keeps his yardage ceiling firmly intact.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 68.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Motivated Lions team @Home is just scary

Best Bet: Lions -6.5 -120
Lean: Lions TT 30+ Pts -125
Score Prediction Steelers 17 Lions 33

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Lions): Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD -120

Detroit continues to script early touches for Gibbs regardless of opponent, and his snap and touch dominance over David Montgomery gives him multiple ways to open the scoring. Even when Montgomery is active, Gibbs is the back most likely to be featured on the opening drive because of his ability to create explosive plays both on the ground and through the air. Pittsburgh’s recent defensive tape shows issues with edge discipline and linebacker pursuit angles, which plays directly into Gibbs’ strengths on outside zone, toss concepts, and designed checkdowns. If the Lions reach the red zone early, Gibbs’ versatility makes him the most likely player to be featured on a high-leverage play rather than a predictable interior run.

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +170

1st TD Picks

Best Bet (Lions): Jahmyr Gibbs First TD +325

St. Brown remains the engine of Detroit’s passing offense and the most reliable option in scoring situations, especially against zone-heavy defenses like Pittsburgh’s. The Steelers have struggled to consistently pass off slot receivers near the goal line, and St. Brown’s route-running precision allows him to win quickly on option routes, shallow crossers, and sit-down concepts inside the 10-yard line. Jared Goff repeatedly looks to St. Brown when the Lions need a clean, timing-based throw, and his elite target share near the end zone gives him one of the highest touchdown floors on the roster. Even if Detroit leans on the run, St. Brown’s usage makes him difficult to keep out of the end zone.

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +1400

Parlay #1 (Lions): +355

Jahmyr Gibbs ATD
Jahmyr Gibbs ‘O’ 72.5 Receiving Yards
Jared Goff ‘O’ 265.5 Pass Yards

Parlay #2 (Steelers) +513

Aaron Rodgers 2+ Passing Touchdowns
DK Metcalf 70+ Receiving Yards
Jaylen Warren Under 40.5 Rushing Yards

QB Drake Maye

Maye threw for a season low 155 passing yards against the Bills last week. Maye is averaging 254.8 passing yards per game, 8.72 YPA and a 70.9% completion rate. He’s thrown 23 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 16th best in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 7th most passing yards per game (233.3). The Ravens have a bottom 7 pressure rate on the season (35.7%). When not pressured, Maye averages 8.96 YPA, a 78.3% completion rate and a 116.7 QB rating. The Ravens play man coverage at the 6th highest rate (34.6%) and single-high at the 3rd highest rate (60.4%). Maye has shredded man, averaging 9.64 YPA and a 121.8 QB rating. Against single-high, he averages 9.99 YPA, a 71.6% completion rate and a 113.5 QB rating. This game has a 49-point implied total and the Patriots are 3-point underdogs, this has shootout potential.

Suggested Pick:

Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-115)

RB Treveyon Henderson

In the first game out of the bye, Henderson had a 49% snap rate compared to Stevenson’s 66.7%. However, Treveyon had 14 carries to Rhamondre’s 6. Rhamondre is the preferred back in pass protection and had a 58.6% route participation rate to Henderson’s 31%. Henderson had 2 explosive TD runs against the Bills, going for 52 and 65 yards. He ended with 148 total rushing yards. He’ll now face a Ravens defense that ranks 8th best in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 15th fewest rushing yards per game. The Ravens have been middle of the pack in explosive run rate allowed at 4.3%. Baltimore has some sizable splits between zone concept vs man/gap. Against zone concept, they allow the fewest YPC (3.27), compared to the 5th most YPC against man/gap (4.99). 62.2% of Henderson’s rush attempts have been in man/gap, yet he’s been less efficient compared to zone, averaging 4.80 and 6.04 YPC respectively. In terms of the receiving matchup, the Ravens allow the 4th most receiving yards and 3rd most receptions to RBs. However, Stevenson has been the trusted RB on passing downs due to Henderson’s struggles in pass protection, which has led to a decrease in route participation rate for Treveyon in 3 straight weeks. I’d prefer Rhamondre to Henderson for receiving props in this spot.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

WR Stefon Diggs

Diggs has been held to 26 or less receiving yards in 3 straight games. Diggs has run a route on just 51.3%, 55.6% and 58.6% of drop backs in the past 3 weeks. He’s had an 8.6%, 12.9% and 13% target share in those 3 respective weeks. Diggs is hard to trust as the Patriots have been rotating their receivers. On the season, Diggs is averaging 52.2 receiving yards per game, 2.26 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 16th best in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 7th most receiving yards per game (233.3). Diggs has run 52.5% of his routes from the slot. The Ravens have forced the 6th lowest target share (28.8%) and are middle of the pack in YPRR (1.76) to the slot. The Ravens play man coverage at the 6th highest rate (34.6%) and single-high at the 3rd highest rate (60.4%). Diggs averages 2.48 YPRR and 27% TPRR against man coverage. Against single-high, Diggs averages 2.44 YPRR and has been targeted on 23% of his routes.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

WR Kayshon Boutte

Boutte is averaging 42.6 receiving yards per game, 1.71 YPRR and 13% TPRR.  He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 16th best in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 7th most receiving yards per game (233.3). Boutte has run 88.9% of his routes from wide alignment. The Ravens have forced the 6th highest target share (44.4%) but the 8th fewest YPRR (1.81) to wide alignment. The Ravens play man coverage at the 6th highest rate (34.6%) and single-high at the 3rd highest rate (60.4%). Boutte averages just 1.33 YPRR and 10% TPRR against man coverage. Against single-high, Boutte averages 1.83 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. The Ravens have been somewhat susceptible to the long ball, allowing the 7th most receiving yards per game on targets 15+ yards down field. Boutte is the main deep threat out of the starters with the highest aDOT at 16.7 yards. 

Suggested Pick:

Over 19.5 Yards Longest Reception (-112)

30+ Yard Longest Reception (+240)

Anytime Touchdown (+320)

TE Hunter Henry

Henry is averaging 44.9 receiving yards per game, 1.70 YPRR, 19% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 19.2%. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 16th best in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 7th most receiving yards per game (233.3). He mainly splits his time in the slot (45.1%) and inline (34.9%). The Ravens have forced the 6th lowest target share (28.8%) and are middle of the pack in YPRR (1.76) to the slot.  They have allowed the 3rd lowest target share (8.8%) and are middle of the pack in YPRR (1.82) to inline. The Ravens play man coverage at the 6th highest rate (34.6%) and single-high at the 3rd highest rate (60.4%). Henry averages 1.32 YPRR and 21% TPRR against man coverage. Against single-high, Henry leads the team in receiving yards and averages 2.13 YPRR and 20% TPRR. 

Suggested Pick:

Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

QB Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson was highly efficient in Week 15 despite extremely limited volume, completing 8-of-12 passes for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns while adding 26 rushing yards. While the box score looks clean, Baltimore has clearly shifted into a lower-volume, game-control offense, with Jackson topping 193 passing yards just twice in his last six games and averaging a career-low 30.3 rushing yards per game. That said, this matchup gives Lamar one of his cleanest schematic edges in weeks. New England plays Cover 3 and Cover 1 at a combined 51.6% rate, coverages Jackson has consistently punished, averaging 9.92 YPA with a positive CPOE and adding meaningful rushing production on scrambles when defenses turn their backs. The Patriots’ raw defensive numbers look solid, but they’ve allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five of their last seven games, including Josh Allen’s 3-TD performance last week. Even if Baltimore doesn’t push tempo, Jackson’s efficiency and red-zone role keep him squarely in play for controlled production rather than explosive volume.

Suggested Play: 

'O' 249.5 Pass + Rush Yards (-120)

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry’s stat line from Week 15 looks modest on the surface, but context matters. He eclipsed 100 rushing yards on just 11 carries before being rested deep into a blowout, finishing with a season-low snap share. Baltimore continues to protect Henry’s workload when games get out of hand, but his role remains unchanged in competitive scripts and, most importantly, near the goal line. New England’s run defense has been structurally strong this season, limiting rushing efficiency and touchdown rate overall, but cracks have started to show against power backs, as James Cook ripped them for 107 yards and two scores last week. The Patriots remain disciplined between the 20s, but Baltimore’s heavy personnel packages and downhill rushing scheme stress linebackers in short-yardage situations. If this game stays competitive into the second half, Henry’s touch count should normalize, and he remains Baltimore’s most likely scorer inside the five.

Suggested Play: 

Anytime  TD (-125)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers finally found the end zone last week after a long scoring drought, converting limited volume into a highly efficient 68-yard touchdown performance. His underlying usage has remained steady all season, as he’s reached at least 64 scrimmage yards in 11 of 14 games and continues to command targets on critical downs. Against New England, the matchup is more nuanced. The Patriots play a healthy amount of Cover 1 and Cover 3, schemes Flowers has excelled against, but he could see shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez, one of the league’s most efficient perimeter corners. That raises the volatility of his target efficiency, but Flowers’ route versatility allows Baltimore to move him pre-snap and avoid static matchups. With Baltimore unlikely to throw heavily, Flowers profiles as a high-efficiency, moderate-volume option who can still produce chunk plays without commanding double-digit targets.

Suggested Play: 

'O' 23.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

TE Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews’ recent production has been volatile, and Week 15 was another disappointing outing in what was otherwise a dream matchup for tight ends. Still, his role has not disappeared—his route participation remains solid, and his efficiency against Cover 1 and Cover 3 remains strong. New England quietly allows one of the highest reception rates to tight ends, and while their yardage totals allowed aren’t extreme, they’ve been vulnerable in the red zone, giving up multiple TE touchdowns in recent weeks. Baltimore’s offensive design continues to feature Andrews in high-leverage situations, even when overall passing volume dips. With defenses prioritizing Flowers on the perimeter and Henry near the goal line, Andrews often becomes Lamar’s first read on play-action and broken plays, keeping his touchdown equity intact despite uneven weekly output.

Suggested Play: 

Anytime TD (+140)

Patriot can make a statment here and I think they do as they will knock the Ravens out of the Playoffs

Best Bet: Patriots +3.5 -130
Lean: Under 48.5 -120
Score Prediction Patriots 24 Ravens 20

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (Ravens) Mark Andrews Anytime TD +140

Mark Andrews’ recent production has been volatile, and Week 15 was another disappointing outing in what was otherwise a dream matchup for tight ends. Still, his role has not disappeared—his route participation remains solid, and his efficiency against Cover 1 and Cover 3 remains strong. New England quietly allows one of the highest reception rates to tight ends, and while their yardage totals allowed aren’t extreme, they’ve been vulnerable in the red zone, giving up multiple TE touchdowns in recent weeks. Baltimore’s offensive design continues to feature Andrews in high-leverage situations, even when overall passing volume dips. With defenses prioritizing Flowers on the perimeter and Henry near the goal line, Andrews often becomes Lamar’s first read on play-action and broken plays, keeping his touchdown equity intact despite uneven weekly output.

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots) +320

Boutte has scored in 42% of games this season and has been the deep ball threat for the Patriots, like this matchup against a Ravens defense that has been susceptible to deep passes. Diggs has also seen his route participation rate drop, so Boutte is the receiver that is consistently on the field for the Patriots whereas other WRs have been rotating in and out. These odds feel way too high.

1st TD Picks

Longshot: (Ravens) Derrick Henry First TD +485

Derrick Henry profiles exceptionally well as a first touchdown candidate in this matchup given Baltimore’s early-game tendencies and New England’s defensive structure. The Ravens have consistently leaned on Henry to establish physical dominance on opening drives, especially against defenses that prioritize two-deep shells and light boxes early, which New England frequently shows out of Cover 3 and Cover 1 looks. While Henry’s overall snap share fluctuates in blowouts, his opening-drive usage and goal-to-go role remain intact, and Baltimore has shown a clear preference for downhill runs near the stripe rather than early-game play-action shots. The Patriots have been stout overall against the run, but they’ve recently shown vulnerability at the goal line—most notably allowing James Cook to score twice last week—suggesting cracks when forced to defend power concepts quickly. If Baltimore reaches the red zone on its opening possession, Henry is overwhelmingly the most likely option to finish the drive, making him a strong first-TD angle even if his total carry count stays modest later in the game.

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots) +2000

Same analysis as anytime, odds feel way too high for the receiver that has the most consistent role for the Patriots.

Parlay #1 (Ravens) +420

Derrick Henry ATD

Zay Flowers 'O' 22.5 Yard Longest Reception

Lamar Jackson 'O' 32.5 Rush Yards

Parlay #2 (Patriots) +465

Drake Maye Over 239.5 Passing Yards

Kayshon Boutte Anytime Touchdown

QB Matthew Stafford

TE Colby Parkinson

Colby Parkinson has cemented himself as the team's 3rd top target, and with Davante Adams sidelined he will be Matthew Stafford's #2 option in the passing game tonight. Since the injury to Tyler Higbee, Parkinson has caught 22 of 27 total targets for 230 yards (38.3 receiving YPG). Tonight, he has a fantastic matchup on the road against Seattle. For all that we have bragged about regarding the Seahawks defense, they have been terrible against opposing tight ends. SEA  is allowing the 3rd most receptions per game (6.5) and 4th most receiving YPG (68.0) to the TE position. The Rams totaled just 4 catches for 37 yards against the Seahawks in Week 11, but consider that Davante Adams was targeted 8 times in that game, where he caught just 1 pass for 1 yard and a TD. Parkinson gives QB Matthew Stafford a safety valve, and he's taken advantage of him lately as the LA tight end has seen 7, 5 and 5 targets over the past three weeks. He's also been a major scoring threat for the Rams and will likely be Stafford's top end zone target tonight. Parkins has scored a touchdown in 5 of the last 6 weeks, and is coming off a two-touchdown performance vs Detroit. Parkinson also found the endzone against Seattle in their first matchup.

Suggested Bet:

Colby Parkinson o3.5 Receptions (-171)

TE Terrance Ferguson

We are doubling up on the tight end position tonight. As good Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are, the remainder of the depth chart at the WR position is slim pickens for Los Angeles. This will require a leap of faith, but this is a game against a reception-challenged defense in Seattle that Terrance Ferguson could play a big role in. Last Sunday, he ran a team-high 29 routes and Stafford actually missed him for a wide-open 37-yard TD. I'm expecting the Seahawks defense to deploy a much higher-rate of man coverage, but they will still deploy Cover-3 (31.1%) and Cover-6 (17.9%) for the majority of their zone snaps. Against these coverages, Ferguson has averaged 1.65 YPRR and .22 TPRR on 41 routes. One catch will most likely get Ferguson the total we need here.

Suggested Bet:Terrance Ferguson o19.5 Rec Yards (-125)

Terrance Ferguson 25+ ALT Rec Yards (+122)

Terrance Ferguson 40+ ALT Rec Yards (+296)

QB Sam Darnold
Darnold should be looking for revenge after losing a few weeks ago to this LAR team 21 to 19. He was awful in that game, going 29 of 44 for 279 with no touchdowns and four interceptions. He averaged just 6.3 yards per attempt. Overall, Darnold has been very good this season, completing 263 passes on 390 attempts (67% completion rate and 78% adjusted completion rate) for 3,433 yards (245.2 yards per game). He’s thrown for 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with 8.8 yards per attempt and a 102 passer rating. His turnover-worthy throw rate has crept up all season long and now sits at 3%. The key here is going to be how Darnold adjusts to pressure. Darnold has the 2nd biggest difference in clean vs pressured passing grade, struggling more against pressure. LAR owns the 6th highest pressure rate. We’ve talked about Darnold’s success with the use of play action in the past and if there was a silver lining from the first meeting, Darnold still had some success using it. Using play action, Darnold went 9 of 10 for 74 yards. Without play action, he completed just 58.8% of his passes with 6.0 yards per attempt and threw 3 of 4 interceptions. Ultimately, it’s difficult to pinpoint what adjustments will be made and with really poor weather conditions, I’m not dying to back his overs. With the pressure LAR can bring I think we’ll at least get one interceptions here in what should be a competitive game.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (-134)

RB Kenneth Walker III
After playing the 1A in the offense, Walker actually played fewer snaps than Charbonnet last week against the Colts (42.4% vs 54.2%) in a competitive game. Overall, this run game has struggled all season, but Walker has especially struggled the last two weeks with 19 carries for 67 yards (4.2 yards per carry). He did play well in the first meeting with the Rams, rushing 16 times for 67 yards and a touchdown while adding 3 catches for 44 yards. On the season Walker has rushed 179 times for 779 yards and four touchdowns. He only owns a 43.58% success rate, but does have a good 7.26% explosive run rate. He’s averaging 4.35 yards per carry and 2.11 yards after contact per attempt. Despite success in the last matchup, LAR is stout against the run. They have allowed the 3rd fewest yards per carry (3.8) and 7th fewest rushing yards per game (78.2) to opposing running backs. They have been more susceptible to RB’s in the pass game, allowing the 5th most targets (6.36) and 11th most receptions (4.64) per game. I assume Walker will retake 1A duties this week, but it’s tough to back him in this matchup. I’ll lay the juice and take his receptions.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Receptions (-145)

RB Zach Charbonnet
Charbonnet has looked better of late after being one of the least efficient running backs to start the season. On the season he has carried the ball 140 times for 514 yards and 8 touchdowns. He has found a higher success rate as a runner than Walker (47.4%), but hasn’t been as explosive (3.57% explosive run rate and 3.67 yards per carry). With a near even split his line remains a good bit lower than Walker’s. If I’m choosing a running back to back as a rusher it’ll be Charbonnet. There should be rain in this game and high winds. Both teams are going to have to use the ground game in these conditions. Not to mention that, the run game is vital to set up play action.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues his monster season. He has 96 catches on 126 targets (76.2% catch rate) for 1,541 yards and 9 touchdowns. He owns a 11.75 aDOT and 12.23 yards per target to go along with an insane 32% target share and 46.7% air yardage share. He put together a really nice game against LAR in the first meeting with 9 catches on 12 targets for 105 yards. He’s been the first read at a 43.2% rate. Smith-Njigba ranks 3rd in receptions per game among WR's. LAR ranks 3rd highest in receptions allowed per game to WR's. The Rams have been susceptible to outside wide receivers, especially lately. We’ve seen Michael Wilson (11 catches for 142 yards and 2 TD’s), Amon-Ra St. Brown (13-164-2) and Jameson Williams (7-134-1) put up huge numbers against this defensive coverage unit. The only thing of concern here is the weather. Otherwise, Jaxon should be in for another big game as Seattle tries to take game two against the Rams without Davante Adams.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (-110)

WR Rashid Shaheed
We’ve finally seen Shaheed look more integrated into the offense. Yes, he only caught 2 balls on 5 targets for 27 yards in their first meeting. However, over the last two games he’s reeled in 9 passes on 12 targets for 141 receiving yards. It looks like he’s finally surpassed Cooper Kupp as the number two in this offense. The matchup could bode well for Shaheed too as the Seahawks look to keep pace with a high-powered Rams offense. LA is allowing the 4th most receiving yards per game to outside wide receivers (122.3), the 10th highest aDOT (12.6) and 14th highest yards after the catch per reception (4.24). There is no doubt that the defensive scheme will be to blanket JSN as much as possible, which leaves some big play potential, especially off of play action. Again, the weather will be something to watch here but I’m not looking to fade Shaheed just as he’s becoming more involved.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE A.J. Barner
Barner registered 3 catches on 6 targets last week for 27 yards. It’s noteworthy that he did it without second tight end, Elijah Arroyo, sidelined. As a result Barner ended up running more routes than usual. Arroyo is likely done for the season so that uptick in usage should remain. On the season, Barner has 43 receptions on 53 targets (81.1% catch rate) with an aDOT of 5.2 and target share of 13.5%. He’s averaging 29.5 receiving yards per game and is averaging 7.8 yards per target and 5.12 yards after the catch per reception. He holds about 12% of the team yardage share. The Rams are a pretty middling matchup, allowing the 15th most targets (7.5), 17th most receptions (5.29) and 5th fewest yards (43.0) per game. He had a monster game against LAR last time out with 10 catches on 11 targets for 70 receiving yards. There’s no reason that he won’t be relied on again as a short yardage target in this game. With poor weather conditions and a good pass rush from the Rams, Barner could be in for a higher volume day.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-120)

This is a coin flip game for me but I think Seattle @Home gives them the edge here. The Seahawks have so many weapons and my concern with the Rams is being able to convert in the red zone without Adams. Give me Seattle on the ML and lean the under

Best Bet: Seahawks ML -115
Lean: Under 43.5 -135
Score Prediction Rams 17 Seahawks 20

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Rams): Blake Corum +290

There is a massive disconnect between recent form and market price here. Blake Corum has found the end zone consistently as of late. He's recorded a touchdown in three consecutive weeks, scoring four times total over this stretch. Despite this production and a season-high snap share last week (45.8%), the market is still implying there is just a 25% chance of him finding paydirt. That gap gives us meaningful value on a prop that appears significantly underpriced.

Best Play (Seahawks): Jaxon Smith-Njigba +130
The volume should be elite against for Seattle's star wide receiver. We've seen monster games from recent outside top wide receivers against this Rams secondary - Wilson, St. Brown and Jameson Williams all scored at least once recently. The Rams have allowed the 12th most redzone targets to outside wide receivers and 10 touchdowns on the season. JSN can score in so many ways, whether it's on a deep pass, up close or in the reverse game.

1st TD Picks

(Rams): Colby Parkinson +1100
Colby Parkinson has scored a touchdown in 5 of his last 6 starts, and he will still benefit from Puka Nacua, who will draw most of Seattle's attention tonight. With Davante Adams, the Rams should lean even more heavily into their big formations, and this means more routes for LA tight ends, especially Parkinson who is tied for the league lead among qualified TEs in TRPR. 

(Seahawks): A.J. Barner +1200
Barner's usage against this team should not go un-noticed. 10 catch on 11 targets for 70 yards in game one against this defense and with poor weather conditions and good presure by the Rams defensive line Darnold could look to use his outlet option early and often. The Rams have allowed only 5 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, but Barner has also been an option via the tush push. If Seattle can work it down to the one, we could get a cheap touchdown from Barner. No Arroyo for the rest of the season makes his props look even better.

Best Parlay (Rams) +305

Matthew Stafford 2+ Pass TDs

Colby Parkinson 4+ Receptions

Terrance Ferguson 15+ Rec Yards

Longshot Parlay (Rams) +2000

Matthew Stafford 2+ Pass TDs

Colby Parkinson 4+ Receptions

Terrance Ferguson 25+ Rec Yards

Blake Corum Anytime TD

Lotto Parlay (Rams) +17000

Matthew Stafford 2+ Pass TDs

Puka Nacua 100+ Rec Yards

Colby Parkinson 4+ Receptions

Terrance Ferguson 40+ Rec Yards

Blake Corum Anytime TD

Colby Parkinson Anytime TD

Best Parlay (Seahawks) -105
A.J. Barner 3+ Receptions
SEA Seahawks +10.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 60+ Receiving Yards

Longshot Parlay (Seahawks) +697
SEA Seahawks ML
Jaxon Smith.Njigba TD
Zach Charbonnet 40+ Rush Yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 80+ Receiving Yards

Lotto Parlay (Seahawks) +6219
SEA Seahawks -2.5
A.J. Barner 2+ TD's
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 7+ Receptions