QB Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys may have unofficially eliminated the Kansas City Chiefs from playoff contention. In doing so, they kept their playoff chances alive, as they are two games out of a playoff spot, competing against this week's opponent, the Detroit Lions. The Lions allow the 8th fewest completions (19.2), the 16th fewest pass attempts (31.5), but the 15th most passing yards (226.8) and the 2nd most passing TDs (2) per game to opposing QBs. Detroit is the most man-heavy team in the entire NFL, running man coverage at 42.8% of their snaps, and, more specifically, the 2nd most Cover 1 at 33.6% of their snaps. Prescott is quite familiar with man coverage, seeing the 5th most dropbacks (129) this season. He's turned that into the 6th highest completion percentage (61.9%), the 5th highest yards per attempt (7.76), and the 14th highest QBR (104.3). Against the Lions' most preferred coverage, Cover 1, Prescott has faced the 10th most dropbacks (89), turning that into the 7th highest completion percentage (62.5%), the 3rd highest yards per attempt (8.44) and the 10th highest QBR (95.6). Prescott and the offence has been rolling of late, and that shouldn't slow down against the man-heavy Lions, especially with how well Prescott performs against man-to-man coverages. Prescott has been able to find the end zone through the air with ease lately, throwing for eight passing TDs through his last three games.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott o1.5 Passing TDs (-165)

RB Javonte Williams

Well, we were correct about Javonte struggling on the ground against the Chiefs last week, as he finished with 59 rushing yards on 17 attempts. However, Javonte still managed to be productive, catching all three of his targets for 21 receiving yards and finding the end zone on a whacky play. This week will be relatively similar to last week's matchup, as the Lions allow the 9th fewest rush attempts (20.2) and the 8th fewest rushing yards (80.8) on the ground to opposing RBs. The Lions run more zone concept (42.8%) than man/gap (36.6%). And they perform better against zone concept, allowing a 3.47 yards per carry, compared to the 4.41 yards per carry against man/gap. Javonte has been able to get it done on the ground in either coverage, but he performs much better against man/gap, averaging 5.58 yards per carry compared to a still respectable 4.18 yards per carry against zone concept. So it doesn't look like an exciting matchup for Javonte on the ground, but he will also be limited through the air, as the Lions allow the 6th fewest receptions (3.8), and the 5th fewest receiving yards (24.1) per game to opposing backs. This should be a high-flying game, with scores going back and forth. That would often lead to more passing than running, and a down week for Javonte with his legs.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams u63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR CeeDee Lamb

Lamb tied for his biggest receiving yardage game of the season, which shouldn't be a surprise considering his coach's words of him "having that look in his eye". He caught seven of his nine targets for 112 receiving yards and found the end zone. This week, he gets a Lions defence that allows the 16th fewest receptions (11.2), but the 10th most receiving yards (154) per game to opposing WRs. Against man coverage, Lamb has caught 16 of his 26 targets this season, totalling 195 receiving yards on 80 routes. His 27.4% target share ranks second on the Cowboys. Lamb sees his yards per reception (15.4) and yards per route run (3.18) increase in man coverage, but he has a lower catch rate (60%) compared to zone coverage. Against Cover 1, Lamb has caught 13 of his 20 targets for 175 receiving yards on 54 routes, and leads the team with a 32.3% target share. Lamb lines up out wide on 66.3% of his snaps. Against perimeter receivers, the Lions are targeted at the 9th highest rate, allowing the 4th highest yards per reception (14.66), but the 7th lowest catch rate. So, the Lions are successful at limiting volume to WRs – especially outside WRs – but struggle to limit their yardage. And while many would view Pickens as the deep threat on this team, we like Lamb to catch a long ball a bit better this week. His number comes in at a lower line than Pickens, and Lamb has actually cleared his line more than Pickens has over the last five games. He also has a higher aDoT than Pickens does against man coverage this season.

Suggested pick:

CeeDee Lamb o24.5 Longest Reception (-120)

WR George Pickens

Pickens continues to show that he's going to produce, whether Lamb is in the lineup or not. Now, some of that may be because he's now drawing the easier matchup, but that doesn't matter to us in the betting landscape. With Lamb going over 100 yards last week, was still able to produce six catches on 12 targets for 88 receiving yards – out targeting Lamb. But now we focus on this week, against the man-heavy Lions. Against man coverage, Pickens has caught 24 of his 35 targets for 463 receiving yards on 120 and leads the Cowboys in target share (28.9%). Against Cover 1 specifically, Pickens has caught 18 of his 24 targets for 369 receiving yards on 81 routes, while maintaining an incredible 29.6% target share. Pickens sees his yards per reception (18.3), and yards per route run (3.59) increase when in man coverage, but a lower catch rate (70.6%) compared to zone coverage. Like Lamb, Pickens lines up on the outside on the majority of his snaps (88.5%). We're expecting a big day for this passing game, and Pickens is a massive part of that.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens TD (+120)

TE Jake Ferguson

The volume remains there for Ferguson, but the production struggled last week. He caught five of his six targets, but for just 36 receiving yards. Now, that was expected against a Chiefs defence that is decent at limiting the TE position, but now he'll get an even tougher matchup this week against the Lions, who allow the 6th fewest receptions (4.3) and the 14th fewest receiving yards (48.7) to the position. Not only that, but Ferguson has struggled against man coverage compared to zone, where he sees his catch rate (77.8%), yards per reception (6.1) and yards per route run (0.84) dip. Against man coverage, Ferguson has caught 17 of his 29 targets for 99 receiving yards on 102 routes, with a 17.4% target share. Against Cover 1 specifically, Ferguson has done well at bringing in his targets, catching 12 of his 15 targets, but for only 53 receiving yards on 69 routes with an 18.5% target share. Ferguson does most of his work from the slot, running 52.7% of his routes from that alignment. The Lions are targeted at a middle-of-the-pack rate against slot receivers, allowing the 6th lowest catch rate (62.6%), but the 5th highest yards per reception (12.4). We can't expect all three of the top Cowboys receiving options to have productive days. And that likely comes at the expense of Ferguson, who has only covered this receiving yard line in one of his last three weeks.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson u36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff goes into Thursday night without his top target Amon-Ra St. Brown, but he handled Week 13 well after St. Brown left early. Goff completed 20 of 26 passes for 256 yards (9.8 YPA) and 2 TDs, and even added a 24-yard run. He’s thrown multiple passing touchdowns in 8 of 12 games, and at least one TD in every game this year. The Cowboys run Cover 3 (36.4%) and Cover 2 (22.5%) on almost 59% of their snaps, and Goff has been solid against those looks — 7.78 YPA, +7% CPOE, and a 98.2 passer rating over 214 dropbacks. This matchup is much friendlier than usual for a banged-up offense because Dallas has been getting shredded through the air. The Cowboys allow the most passing yards per game (269.5) and the most passing TDs per game (2.3) to quarterbacks. Last week, Patrick Mahomes put up 261 yards and 4 TDs, and Goff had 315 yards and 3 TDs vs Dallas last season. Even without St. Brown, Goff’s matchup is one of the best he’ll see all season.

Suggested Play:
'O' 252.5 Passing Yards (-120)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs didn’t repeat his huge Week 12 eruption, but he still produced 20 carries for 68 yards and 3 catches for 18 yards last week. He has reached 3+ receptions in six straight games and at least 146 scrimmage yards in four of his last six. His usage continues to look like feature-back territory — he led David Montgomery in snap share (73% vs 35%), carries (67% vs 27%), and routes (52% vs 36%) in Week 13. Against RBs, Dallas is a weird matchup: they allow the 15th-fewest rushing yards per game (92.5) but the third-most receiving yards to RBs (44.7). Their linebackers struggle in space and struggle to track fast backs on angles and swings. Gibbs posted 12/63 rushing and 3/28 receiving vs Dallas last season. With St. Brown out, Gibbs’ receiving role should expand even more. If Detroit plays with pace and uses motion to create mismatches, Gibbs can easily outproduce his rushing-only projection.

Suggested Play:
'O' 38.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery continues operating in the grinder role. He saw 8 carries for 32 yards and 1 TD and added 2 catches for 16 yards last game. His volume has been dropping because Gibbs has taken over most of the passing-down and open-field work. Monty has failed to top his Week 13 output (12.8 fantasy points) in seven straight games, mostly because his usage is touchdown-dependent now. The Cowboys allow only 92.5 rushing yards per game, and their defensive front is built more to stop interior power runs than perimeter speed. Monty did torch Dallas last season (12/80/2 rushing), but that came in a different game script and with a healthier Lions offensive line. In this particular matchup, with Gibbs taking most of the explosive work and Detroit likely needing to throw more without St. Brown, Montgomery’s yardage projection stays modest unless he spikes a red-zone carry.

Suggested Play:
'U' 35.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

WR Jameson Williams

Jameson Williams steps into the WR1 role with Amon-Ra St. Brown out, and he delivered immediately last week with 7 receptions for 144 yards and 1 TD on 10 targets (38%). He has hit 66+ yards and a TD in five of his last seven games. Dallas plays heavy zone coverage — Cover 3 (36.4%) and Cover 2 (22.5%) — and Williams has seen 1.60 yards per route run and a 15% target rate across 191 routes vs those coverage types. The Cowboys allow the most receiving yards per game to perimeter WRs (131.8) and the highest yards per reception (15.66). Their corners give up chunk gains repeatedly, and Williams is exactly the kind of vertical playmaker who capitalizes on that. He posted 3/76/1 vs the Cowboys last year, and this time he enters as the featured wideout. Volume + matchup + role all point in the same direction.

Suggested Play:
'O' 83.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

WR Isaac TeSlaa

Isaac TeSlaa has quietly carved out a meaningful role with Detroit’s injuries piling up. Last week he saw a season-high 92% snap share, ran almost every route, and caught 2 passes for 35 yards and a TD. He now has 3 TDs on just 11 targets to start his career. Against Dallas’ Cover 3/Cover 2 mix, TeSlaa has been less efficient (0.95 YPRR, 6% target rate on 63 routes), but this matchup boosts his opportunity. Dallas allows the third-most YPRR (2.34) and the highest yards per target (10.14) to wide receivers outside. Detroit needs someone besides Jameson Williams to step up on the perimeter, and TeSlaa will play nearly every snap again. His yardage ceiling isn’t high, but efficiency metrics say that one or two well-timed shots can easily push him past his line.

Suggested Play:
'O' 2.5 Receptions (-155)

This is a MUST win for both teams but Goff's track record coming off a loss is insane going 12-0 since 2023. That is something that is hard to fade. With that being said, in terms of a best bet I'm going with the Lions team total over 27.5. 

Best Bet: Lions TT 'O' 27.5 -135
Lean: Over 54.5 -118
Score Prediction Cowboys 27 Lions 30

Anytime TD

Best Pick: (Cowboys): George Pickens Anytime TD (+210)

Pickens to find the end zone was our suggested pick for him. He did not score last week, but found the end zone in the two previous weeks before that. The Lions really struggle to keep opposing WRs out of the end zone, allowing the 2nd most receiving TDs (1.58) per game to the position.

Best Pick: (Lions) Jameson Williams (-115)

The Cowboys’ heavy Cover 3 (36.4%) and Cover 2 (22.5%) usage also benefits Williams, because those coverages often leave seam routes and deep sideline shots available if the pass rush doesn’t get home. Williams has been productive in these looks, averaging 1.60 YPRR with steady usage across 191 routes. He posted 3/76/1 against Dallas last season even with limited volume, and now he gets WR1-level opportunity. Detroit will need Williams’ ability to create chunk plays to keep the offense balanced without St. Brown, and Goff’s aggressive intermediate throwing tendencies pair perfectly with Williams’ route profile. Considering both volume and matchup, Williams is a strong candidate to find the end zone at some point in this game.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Cowboys) George Pickens First TD (+900)

Against man coverage, Pickens leads the Cowboys in 1st read rate, inside the 20 targets, and end zone targets this season. Pickens has eight receiving TDs this season, but oddly enough, none of them have been the first score of the game. However, two of his eight TDs have been the Cowboys' first TD of the game. Surely he won't go the full season without scoring first, right? Surprisingly, the high-flying Lions' offence has allowed the opposing team to score the first TD of the game over the last two weeks.

Best Pick (Lions): Jahmyr Gibbs (+375)

Dallas is also uniquely vulnerable to the types of plays Gibbs thrives on. They allow the third-most receiving yards to running backs (44.7), and their linebackers often struggle to diagnose misdirection early in games. Gibbs’ acceleration into the second level is exactly the kind of trait that exploits an undisciplined first drive, especially against a defense that has recently given up explosive RB receptions and chunk gains on perimeter runs. If Detroit opens the game with scripted motion, play-action, and the spacing concepts they typically use on early downs, Gibbs is almost guaranteed to be the focal point of the first scoring opportunity. With Detroit likely trying to compensate for St. Brown’s absence by leaning on high-efficiency touches, Gibbs becomes the most probable Lion to strike first.

Parlay 1: (Cowboys) +250 odds on bet365

Dak Prescott 2+ Passing TDs

CeeDee Lamb 70+ Receiving Yards

George Pickens 70+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (Lions): +365 

Jared Goff 'O' 252.5 Pass Yards

Jahmyr Gibbs 'O' 5.5 Receptions

Jameson Williams 'O' 83.5 Receiving Yards

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Anytime TD

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First TD Scorer

QB Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson’s slump continued on Thanksgiving, where he completed 17 of 32 passes for 246 yards, no touchdowns, and 1 interception, adding only 27 rushing yards on 6 attempts. He has now gone three straight games without accounting for a touchdown, and he’s produced 1 or fewer TDs in five of his last six. Since returning from injury, opponents have limited his rushing lanes, and he has topped 27 rushing yards only once in his last five games. His season rushing average has fallen to 29.3 yards per game, which is 22 yards below his previous career low. The Steelers play one of the highest man-coverage rates in the league — 34.5% (7th) — and Lamar has been respectable vs man, averaging 7.93 YPA, +1.3% CPOE, and 6/47 rushing on 100 dropbacks. Pittsburgh’s secondary is giving up the sixth-most passing yards per game (264.8) and the 10th-most passing TDs (1.7). Last week Josh Allen had 123 yards and 1 TD passing, plus 38 rushing yards and a rushing TD, showing that QBs can still find production through second-reaction plays. Lamar posted 414 yards and 4 TDs (plus 2 INTs) and added 13/68 rushing in two games vs Pittsburgh last season. Despite his recent struggles, the matchup provides a clear path to a bounce-back performance as long as Baltimore stabilizes its protection and gives Lamar space to work.

Suggested Play:
'O' 221.5 Passing Yards (-120)

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry comes in riding a strong stretch of consistency. He scored for the third straight game, finishing with 10 carries for 60 yards and a TD, plus a 44-yard reception last week. He has now topped 71 total yards in seven straight games, and he’s posted at least 11.4 points of production in all seven. Henry’s volume is also highly tied to game script — he averages 18.3 carries per win vs 14.5 in losses, and Baltimore enters this game as a 6.5-point home favorite, which should push his touch count upward. Pittsburgh’s run defense is solid in structure but vulnerable when they lose gap control. They allow the 14th-most rushing yards per game (100.3) and rank 10th-worst in adjusted yards before contact (2.29), meaning backs often reach the second level cleanly. They do, however, give up the seventh-fewest rushing TDs per game (0.4) — so touchdowns often require sustained drives or explosive plays. Still, James Cook gashed them for 32/144 rushing and added 3/33 receiving last week. Henry also dominated this matchup last year with 37 carries for 227 yards and a TD, plus 2/27 receiving over two meetings. The projected workload plus matchup trends make Henry a key focal point again.

Suggested Play:
'O' 81.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers and the entire Ravens offense fell flat against Cincinnati, with Flowers posting 2 catches for 6 yards on 7 targets, plus a lost fumble. Despite the down week, he has totaled 64+ yards in 9 of 11 games this season, though he hasn’t scored since Week 1. Against man coverage — which Pittsburgh uses on 34.5% of snaps — Flowers has been productive across 117 routes, averaging 2.15 yards per route run and earning targets at a 26% rate. His role naturally increases when games tighten because he’s Baltimore’s most reliable separator against man leverage. The Steelers allow the fourth-most receiving yards per game to outside WRs (121.8) but surprisingly give up the 16th-fewest yards per route run (1.91) to perimeter receivers. In other words, teams don’t get efficient production — but they get plenty of volume. Flowers posted 2/39/1 in one meeting and 5/100 in the other against Pittsburgh last season. With Baltimore needing to recalibrate its offense and Lamar likely throwing more than usual, Flowers should rebound with a substantial target load.

Suggested Play:
'O' 21.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

TE Mark Andrews

TE Mark Andrews enters this matchup with one of the strongest paths to a touchdown on the Ravens’ roster. Pittsburgh’s defense has been consistently vulnerable to tight ends all season, allowing the sixth-most receiving yards (63.8) and the eighth-most receptions (6.1) per game to the position. Their struggles come from a combination of factors: linebackers who are slow to match vertical stems, safeties who overplay crossers, and a pass rush that forces QBs into quick-processing situations where tight ends naturally become primary reads. Andrews’ efficiency vs man coverage — which Pittsburgh uses on 34.5% of snaps — strengthens his case. He averages 2.03 yards per route and draws targets at a 23% rate in those looks, which is elite for the position. Baltimore also leans on Andrews in structured scoring areas because he is Lamar’s most trusted player on fades, seams, and option routes inside the 15-yard line. Last season, he posted 6/59/1 across two games vs Pittsburgh, and the Steelers haven’t shown improvement in their tight end coverage in 2024. Given Baltimore’s recent offensive issues, Andrews represents the most stable, matchup-friendly outlet for Lamar Jackson — especially in the red zone, where Baltimore desperately needs reliable hands and strong catch-point play. Andrews’ route share, historical production vs this opponent, and the coverage tendencies he’s facing all point toward a strong chance he finds the end zone at some point during this game.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+165)

Best Bet: 
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Score Prediction

Anytime TD

Best Play: (Ravens) Mark Andrews +165

TE Mark Andrews enters this matchup with one of the strongest paths to a touchdown on the Ravens’ roster. Pittsburgh’s defense has been consistently vulnerable to tight ends all season, allowing the sixth-most receiving yards (63.8) and the eighth-most receptions (6.1) per game to the position. Their struggles come from a combination of factors: linebackers who are slow to match vertical stems, safeties who overplay crossers, and a pass rush that forces QBs into quick-processing situations where tight ends naturally become primary reads. Andrews’ efficiency vs man coverage — which Pittsburgh uses on 34.5% of snaps — strengthens his case. He averages 2.03 yards per route and draws targets at a 23% rate in those looks, which is elite for the position. Baltimore also leans on Andrews in structured scoring areas because he is Lamar’s most trusted player on fades, seams, and option routes inside the 15-yard line. Last season, he posted 6/59/1 across two games vs Pittsburgh, and the Steelers haven’t shown improvement in their tight end coverage in 2024. Given Baltimore’s recent offensive issues, Andrews represents the most stable, matchup-friendly outlet for Lamar Jackson — especially in the red zone, where Baltimore desperately needs reliable hands and strong catch-point play. Andrews’ route share, historical production vs this opponent, and the coverage tendencies he’s facing all point toward a strong chance he finds the end zone at some point during this game.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Ravens) Derrick Henry +365

Derrick Henry has been the one consistent force in Baltimore’s offense over the last month, scoring in three straight games and piling up 71+ scrimmage yards in seven straight. The Ravens are 6.5-point home favorites, which historically correlates strongly with early Henry usage. When Baltimore plays with a lead, Henry averages 18.3 carries per game, and his first-quarter workload typically spikes as the offense tries to establish physicality early. That alone gives him a meaningful edge in first-touchdown probability. The Steelers have also been giving up early rushing opportunities. They rank 10th-worst in adjusted yards before contact allowed (2.29), meaning backs routinely get downhill before defenders can disrupt the run. James Cook just ran for 144 yards on this defense last week, repeatedly hitting the second level untouched. Pittsburgh also has a pattern of bending early on opening drives as teams script their best run concepts and motion packages. That directly benefits Henry, who thrives on early-down power looks and misdirection plays that force linebackers to hesitate. Henry’s history against Pittsburgh reinforces this angle as well — he posted 37/227/1 rushing across two meetings last season, consistently breaking through arm tackles and generating chunk gains in the first half. With Baltimore needing to regain offensive rhythm and re-establish an identity around physicality, Henry is the most likely candidate to receive the first red-zone touch. All indicators — matchup, script, recent form, and usage — point to Henry being in prime position to score first.

 Parlay #1 (Ravens) +425

Lamar Jackson 'O' 221.5 Pass Yards

Zay Flowers 'O' 21.5 Longest Reception

Derrick Henry 'O' 81.5 Rush Yards

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