QB Jalen Hurts

It wasn't a pretty result for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in their 24-15 Black Friday loss to the Bears, but Hurts still had himself a fine day through the air. He went 19/34 for 230 passing yards and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio. This week, he'll get a tough Los Angeles Chargers defence that allows the 2nd fewest completions (17.8), and passing yards (184.6), the 5th fewest pass attempts (29), and the 4th fewest passing TDs (1.0) per game to opposing QBs. The Chargers are one of the zone-heaviest teams, running that coverage on 78.2% of their snaps. More specifically, they favour Cover 4, running that at the 2nd highest rate (25.7%) in the NFL. Against zone, Hurts sits in the middle of the pack in terms of completion percentage (69%), yards per attempt (7.35) and QBR (95.5) of all starting QBs. The same goes when facing Cover 4, ranking somewhere in the middle of the league ranks in completion percentage (68%), yards per attempt (7.0) and QBR (87.9). Safe to say Hurts is just mid against zone coverage. Where he may see an advantage in this matchup is with his legs. The Chargers allow the 13th most rushing yards (18.6) per game to opposing QBs. While that's not a massive number, it is an edge against what is a very difficult defence to throw on. After what was an odd stretch of five games where Hurts wasn't really running, he has now logged 30+ rushing yards in three straight, averaging 31.7 rushing yards per game.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts o29.5 Rush Yards (-110)

RB Saquon Barkley

The running game struggled yet again last week, as Barkley rushed 13 times but for just 56 yards. And that could be a result of star RT Lane Johnson being out – he's out again this week. This Chargers defence is tough to run on as well, allowing the 6th fewest rush attempts (18.9), and the 14th fewest rushing yards (87.7) per game to opposing RBs. Los Angeles runs more zone concept (44.7%) than man/gap (38.3%). Which is to their benefit, as they allow a lower yards per carry when in zone (4.24) than when in man/gap (4.6). That isn't great news for Barkley, who struggles against zone, averaging 3.36 yards per carry, but produces fine against man/gap, averaging 4.26 yards per carry. Not only are they tough on the ground, but they do a great job at limiting backs through the air as well, allowing the 11th fewest receptions (4.1), and the 9th fewest receiving yards (28.5) per game to RBs. Until Lane Johnson returns, we can't confidently suggest backing Barkley on the ground.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley u70.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR AJ Brown

After what was a brutal first three-quarters of the season, but we've been backing AJ Brown the last two weeks, and he's put up back-to-back 100+ receiving yard games for us. But he might be in store for a down week, as the Chargers allow the 6th fewest receptions (9.9) and the 3rd fewest receiving yards (116.3) per game to opposing WRs. Against zone coverage, Brown has caught 36 of his 55 targets for 418 receiving yards and a 24% target share. These all seem decent, but Brown is much better against man coverage, as he sees his yards per reception (11.7) and yards per route run (1.76) dip in zone, while maintaining a similar catch rate of 65.5%. Against the Chargers' most preferred shell, Cover 4, Brown has just six receptions on 13 targets for 75 receiving yards, but leads the team with a 26.5% target share. Brown does most of his work from the perimeter (89.8%). Against outside receivers, the Chargers are targeted at a middle-of-the-pack rate, but allow the 6th lowest catch rate (58.5%), and the 4th lowest yards per reception (11.7) to the alignment. We have a rule, and it is to back Brown against man-heavy teams, and Smith against zone-heavy teams, and by these numbers, it doesn't project to be a Brown week.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown u62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Devonta Smith

We touched on it in our Brown segment, but it seems to be setting up nicely for a Smith week. Against a zone-heavy team two weeks ago, Smith had six catches on 10 targets for 89 receiving yards. But last week against a man-heavy team, Smith had five receptions on eight targets for 48 receiving yards. Against zone coverage this season, Smith has caught 43 of his 59 targets for 621 receiving yards and leads the team with a 24.7% target share. Against Cover 4, Smith has seven receptions on 11 targets for 53 receiving yards and a 22% target share. Smith sees his catch rate (75%), yards per reception (14.1) and yards per route run (2.11) all increase in zone coverage compared to man. Smith runs most of his routes from the slot. Against slot receivers, the Chargers are targeted at the 4th lowest rate, but allow a middle of the pack catch rate (69%) and yards per reception (10.4) per game. And with Brown performing so well over these last two weeks, we're getting a decent discount on Smith's yards this week.

Suggested pick:

Devonta Smith o55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert has kind of been fizzled out of this Eagles passing offence. Over the last three weeks, Geodert has had two receptions in each game, failing to hit the 30 receiving yard mark in any of those games. This week might not be the week for him to bounceback, either, as the Chargers allow the 4th fewest receptions (3.8) and the 6th fewest receiving yards (40.5) per game to opposing TEs. Against zone coverage, Goedert has 31 receptions on 41 targets for 342 receiving yards and an 18.1% target share. Against Cover 4 specifically, Goedert has been near perfect, catching seven of his eight targets for 63 receiving yards and a 17.8% target share. One thing in his favour is that Goedert sees his catch rate (80.6%), yards per reception (10.9) and yards per route run (1.47) increase in zone coverage compared to man. Like Smith, Goedert does most of his work from the slot. It's a tough matchup for Goedert. While he still might be able to surpass the 30 yard threshold, we can't imagine it will be based on volume. Goedert has just 10 targets in his last three games, and now he's going up against this defence that allows the 4th fewest receptions to TEs and are targeted at the 4th lowest rate to his most used alignment? Goedert should struggle to clear his reception line this week.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert u3.5 Receptions (-135)

QB Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert is dealing with a fracture in the back of his non-throwing hand, but since he played through it against the Raiders and required only stabilizing surgery, the team hasn’t ruled him out for Week 14. If Herbert plays, the expectation is a slightly modified game plan with quicker throws, fewer designed rollouts, and reliance on timing routes. He completed 26/34 passes last week despite the hand issue, and his efficiency against the Chargers’ expected coverages has been consistently strong. Los Angeles uses Cover 3 on 27.5% of snaps and Cover 6 on 22.1%, and Herbert owns a strong 7.85 YPA, +8.8% CPOE, and 107 rushing yards across 171 dropbacks versus those looks. The Chargers' defense has quietly allowed the 15th-most passing yards per game (228.5) while giving up just one passing touchdown per game, but they’ve recently struggled with explosive plays, ranking bottom-10 in yards per attempt allowed over the last four weeks. If Herbert can grip the ball well enough, his intermediate accuracy should be the difference in this matchup. If he sits, Trey Lance brings a different dynamic. He posted 244 yards at 7.2 YPA in his Week 18 start last year and added 26 rushing yards on designed reads. The Chargers’ biggest issues come from QB mobility — they allowed Caleb Williams to extend multiple drives last week.

Suggested Play:

'O' 212.5 Passing Yards (-120)

RB Omarion Hampton

Omarion Hampton appears close to returning from his ankle injury after totaling 129+ scrimmage yards and 5+ receptions in back-to-back full games before exiting in Week 5. If he plays, he resumes workhorse status. If he doesn’t, Kimani Vidal once again becomes the centerpiece — he erupted for 25/126/1 rushing last week and added an 11-yard catch. Vidal has now cleared 108+ scrimmage yards and a TD in four of seven games without Hampton. Both backs carry similar usage profiles: heavy early-down work, strong involvement in the screen game, and high snap rates in neutral scripts. Philadelphia surprisingly ranks bottom-half in run defense, giving up the 12th-most rushing yards and fifth-most receiving yards per game to RBs. D’Andre Swift (18/125/1) and Kyle Monangai (22/130/1) just gashed this defense for a combined 260+ rushing yards in back-to-back weeks. This is the best matchup on the board for any Eagles skill player.

Suggested Play:

'O' 44.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey produced 4/39/1 on six targets last week, continuing his role as one of Herbert’s most precise route runners. Before the Chargers' blowout wins reduced volume, he reached 56+ yards in five straight games. Now he draws an Eagles secondary that leans heavily on Cover 3 and Cover 6, looks in which McConkey averages 1.48 YPRR and a .18 target-per-route rate on 140 routes. The matchup is a challenge — Philadelphia is allowing only 51.6 receiving yards per game to slot receivers and ranks No. 1 in YPRR allowed to slot alignments (1.25). Their corner/safety exchanges in quarters coverage have been excellent, and Luther Burden managed only 4/33 last week in a nearly identical role. McConkey’s biggest path here is volume, as the Eagles’ defense often forces check-downs and underneath targets.

Suggested Play: 

'U' 52.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen’s efficiency has dipped dramatically, posting fewer than 40 yards in four of his last five games, including 4/30 on a 24% target share last week. Since Oronde Gadsden emerged, Allen’s target floor has lowered, but he still leads the team in key downfield and intermediate usage. Against the Eagles’ Cover 3/Cover 6 looks, Allen averages 2.38 yards per route run and a .26 target-per-route rate on 107 routes — both elite numbers relative to league averages. Philadelphia allows the 15th-most yards per route run (1.93) and similar mid-tier marks in yards per target, meaning this is one of the softer matchups he has had recently. His issue has been separation, not role, and the Eagles’ perimeter corners have allowed multiple WR1s to rebound after down weeks.

Suggested Play:

'O' 16.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

TE Oronde Gadsden

Oronde Gadsden has cooled off significantly, producing just 27 yards on two targets last week and only 6/81 total receiving over his last three games. However, his matchup this week is not as bad as it looks on paper. While the Eagles allow the second-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends (35.0) and only 4.1 receptions per game, those numbers are skewed by poor TE opponents. Against competent athletic tight ends, they have shown cracks — Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet combined for 6/54/1 last week by attacking the outside shoulders of linebackers in split-safety coverage. Gadsden averages 2.88 YPRR and a .21 TPRR versus the coverages Philadelphia will use, meaning he still earns targets efficiently when aligned against zone. His decline has more to do with game flow than talent.

Suggested Play:

'O' 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Eagles have looked AWFUL and they are a tough team to back but I expect them to bounce back and win this game on the defensive end. That Chargers O-Line is awful and with Herbert banged up I expect them to have troubles in this one. Give me the Eagles to win by 3+

Best Bet: Eagles -2.5 -130
Lean: Under 41.5 -110
Score Prediction Eagles 24 Chargers 14

Anytime TD

Best Pick: (Eagles): Devonta Smith TD (+275)

Kind of a massive number for Smith, considering how good Smith is against zone coverage. Smith hasn't scored in three games, but the WR has not gone more than three consecutive games without finding the end zone all season. He should be able to put up points for his team this week.

Best Pick: (Chargers) Oronde Gadsden (+225)

Oronde Gadsden’s usage has dipped over the last few weeks, but the touchdown path this week is better than it looks on paper. Philadelphia’s defense is statistically strong against tight ends — second-fewest receiving yards allowed (35.0 per game) and fifth-fewest receptions (4.1) — but their red-zone coverage is where they are most vulnerable. The Eagles play a heavy amount of Cover 3 in the low red zone, rotating safeties down and forcing linebackers into conflict. This creates soft space in the middle seam, the exact area where Gadsden thrives. Even during his recent downturn, Gadsden’s red-zone route rate has held steady, and he still owns one of the highest target efficiencies against zone coverage on the team (2.88 YPRR vs the Eagles’ primary shells). Philadelphia just allowed a TE touchdown last week on the exact route tree Gadsden runs — a leverage win against an over-rotating safety. If Herbert plays, his TE targeting in goal-to-go situations increases sharply; if Trey Lance plays, the offense would lean heavier on play-action and bootlegs, which tend to free the backside TE in the flat. Both game scripts support touchdown equity.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Eagles) Devonta Smith First TD (+1400)

Smith only has three TDs all season. But his most recent TD, against the Packers, was the first score of the game. The Chargers are a tough team to score on through the air, allowing 0.5 receiving TDs per game to opposing WRs, but the Chargers have gone back and forth over the last four weeks of scoring the first TD and allowing the first TD. And if you play into that stuff and believe in patterns, it lines up for the Chargers to allow the first score in this game.

Best Pick: (Chargers) Keenan Allen First TD +1440

Keenan Allen hasn’t had a box-score breakout in a while, but his first-drive usage remains extremely strong — making him an ideal candidate for first touchdown scorer. He owns a 32% target share on opening drives this season, and his alignment versatility gives him the highest probability of being schemed into an early scoring opportunity. The Eagles’ defense tends to start games in softer Cover 6 looks to prevent explosives, which directly benefits Allen’s short-to-intermediate timing routes. Philadelphia’s cornerbacks have also been giving up inside-breaking routes early before settling into tighter matchups later in games. Allen’s efficiency against these coverages is still elite: 2.38 YPRR and a .26 TPRR on 107 routes versus Cover 3/Cover 6 structures. With the Chargers expected to script quick reads for either Herbert (protecting his hand) or Trey Lance (simplifying processing), Allen should be the first or second read on the opening red-zone trip. Given his history of early-drive involvement and the Eagles’ recent trend of allowing early WR production before halftime, this is a strong value spot for him to score first.

Parlay 1: (Eagles) +210 odds on bet365

Jalen Hurts 30+ Rushing Yards

Devonta Smith 50+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: (Eagles) +525 odds on bet365

Devonta Smith TD

Devonta Smith 70+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 3: (Chargers) +695 odds on Fliff

Omarion Hampton ATD
Ladd McConkey 'U' 52.5 Receiving Yards

Oronde Gadsden 'O' 38.5 Receiving Yards

QB Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys may have unofficially eliminated the Kansas City Chiefs from playoff contention. In doing so, they kept their playoff chances alive, as they are two games out of a playoff spot, competing against this week's opponent, the Detroit Lions. The Lions allow the 8th fewest completions (19.2), the 16th fewest pass attempts (31.5), but the 15th most passing yards (226.8) and the 2nd most passing TDs (2) per game to opposing QBs. Detroit is the most man-heavy team in the entire NFL, running man coverage at 42.8% of their snaps, and, more specifically, the 2nd most Cover 1 at 33.6% of their snaps. Prescott is quite familiar with man coverage, seeing the 5th most dropbacks (129) this season. He's turned that into the 6th highest completion percentage (61.9%), the 5th highest yards per attempt (7.76), and the 14th highest QBR (104.3). Against the Lions' most preferred coverage, Cover 1, Prescott has faced the 10th most dropbacks (89), turning that into the 7th highest completion percentage (62.5%), the 3rd highest yards per attempt (8.44) and the 10th highest QBR (95.6). Prescott and the offence has been rolling of late, and that shouldn't slow down against the man-heavy Lions, especially with how well Prescott performs against man-to-man coverages. Prescott has been able to find the end zone through the air with ease lately, throwing for eight passing TDs through his last three games.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott o1.5 Passing TDs (-165)

RB Javonte Williams

Well, we were correct about Javonte struggling on the ground against the Chiefs last week, as he finished with 59 rushing yards on 17 attempts. However, Javonte still managed to be productive, catching all three of his targets for 21 receiving yards and finding the end zone on a whacky play. This week will be relatively similar to last week's matchup, as the Lions allow the 9th fewest rush attempts (20.2) and the 8th fewest rushing yards (80.8) on the ground to opposing RBs. The Lions run more zone concept (42.8%) than man/gap (36.6%). And they perform better against zone concept, allowing a 3.47 yards per carry, compared to the 4.41 yards per carry against man/gap. Javonte has been able to get it done on the ground in either coverage, but he performs much better against man/gap, averaging 5.58 yards per carry compared to a still respectable 4.18 yards per carry against zone concept. So it doesn't look like an exciting matchup for Javonte on the ground, but he will also be limited through the air, as the Lions allow the 6th fewest receptions (3.8), and the 5th fewest receiving yards (24.1) per game to opposing backs. This should be a high-flying game, with scores going back and forth. That would often lead to more passing than running, and a down week for Javonte with his legs.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams u63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR CeeDee Lamb

Lamb tied for his biggest receiving yardage game of the season, which shouldn't be a surprise considering his coach's words of him "having that look in his eye". He caught seven of his nine targets for 112 receiving yards and found the end zone. This week, he gets a Lions defence that allows the 16th fewest receptions (11.2), but the 10th most receiving yards (154) per game to opposing WRs. Against man coverage, Lamb has caught 16 of his 26 targets this season, totalling 195 receiving yards on 80 routes. His 27.4% target share ranks second on the Cowboys. Lamb sees his yards per reception (15.4) and yards per route run (3.18) increase in man coverage, but he has a lower catch rate (60%) compared to zone coverage. Against Cover 1, Lamb has caught 13 of his 20 targets for 175 receiving yards on 54 routes, and leads the team with a 32.3% target share. Lamb lines up out wide on 66.3% of his snaps. Against perimeter receivers, the Lions are targeted at the 9th highest rate, allowing the 4th highest yards per reception (14.66), but the 7th lowest catch rate. So, the Lions are successful at limiting volume to WRs – especially outside WRs – but struggle to limit their yardage. And while many would view Pickens as the deep threat on this team, we like Lamb to catch a long ball a bit better this week. His number comes in at a lower line than Pickens, and Lamb has actually cleared his line more than Pickens has over the last five games. He also has a higher aDoT than Pickens does against man coverage this season.

Suggested pick:

CeeDee Lamb o24.5 Longest Reception (-120)

WR George Pickens

Pickens continues to show that he's going to produce, whether Lamb is in the lineup or not. Now, some of that may be because he's now drawing the easier matchup, but that doesn't matter to us in the betting landscape. With Lamb going over 100 yards last week, was still able to produce six catches on 12 targets for 88 receiving yards – out targeting Lamb. But now we focus on this week, against the man-heavy Lions. Against man coverage, Pickens has caught 24 of his 35 targets for 463 receiving yards on 120 and leads the Cowboys in target share (28.9%). Against Cover 1 specifically, Pickens has caught 18 of his 24 targets for 369 receiving yards on 81 routes, while maintaining an incredible 29.6% target share. Pickens sees his yards per reception (18.3), and yards per route run (3.59) increase when in man coverage, but a lower catch rate (70.6%) compared to zone coverage. Like Lamb, Pickens lines up on the outside on the majority of his snaps (88.5%). We're expecting a big day for this passing game, and Pickens is a massive part of that.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens TD (+120)

TE Jake Ferguson

The volume remains there for Ferguson, but the production struggled last week. He caught five of his six targets, but for just 36 receiving yards. Now, that was expected against a Chiefs defence that is decent at limiting the TE position, but now he'll get an even tougher matchup this week against the Lions, who allow the 6th fewest receptions (4.3) and the 14th fewest receiving yards (48.7) to the position. Not only that, but Ferguson has struggled against man coverage compared to zone, where he sees his catch rate (77.8%), yards per reception (6.1) and yards per route run (0.84) dip. Against man coverage, Ferguson has caught 17 of his 29 targets for 99 receiving yards on 102 routes, with a 17.4% target share. Against Cover 1 specifically, Ferguson has done well at bringing in his targets, catching 12 of his 15 targets, but for only 53 receiving yards on 69 routes with an 18.5% target share. Ferguson does most of his work from the slot, running 52.7% of his routes from that alignment. The Lions are targeted at a middle-of-the-pack rate against slot receivers, allowing the 6th lowest catch rate (62.6%), but the 5th highest yards per reception (12.4). We can't expect all three of the top Cowboys receiving options to have productive days. And that likely comes at the expense of Ferguson, who has only covered this receiving yard line in one of his last three weeks.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson u36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff goes into Thursday night without his top target Amon-Ra St. Brown, but he handled Week 13 well after St. Brown left early. Goff completed 20 of 26 passes for 256 yards (9.8 YPA) and 2 TDs, and even added a 24-yard run. He’s thrown multiple passing touchdowns in 8 of 12 games, and at least one TD in every game this year. The Cowboys run Cover 3 (36.4%) and Cover 2 (22.5%) on almost 59% of their snaps, and Goff has been solid against those looks — 7.78 YPA, +7% CPOE, and a 98.2 passer rating over 214 dropbacks. This matchup is much friendlier than usual for a banged-up offense because Dallas has been getting shredded through the air. The Cowboys allow the most passing yards per game (269.5) and the most passing TDs per game (2.3) to quarterbacks. Last week, Patrick Mahomes put up 261 yards and 4 TDs, and Goff had 315 yards and 3 TDs vs Dallas last season. Even without St. Brown, Goff’s matchup is one of the best he’ll see all season.

Suggested Play:
'O' 252.5 Passing Yards (-120)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs didn’t repeat his huge Week 12 eruption, but he still produced 20 carries for 68 yards and 3 catches for 18 yards last week. He has reached 3+ receptions in six straight games and at least 146 scrimmage yards in four of his last six. His usage continues to look like feature-back territory — he led David Montgomery in snap share (73% vs 35%), carries (67% vs 27%), and routes (52% vs 36%) in Week 13. Against RBs, Dallas is a weird matchup: they allow the 15th-fewest rushing yards per game (92.5) but the third-most receiving yards to RBs (44.7). Their linebackers struggle in space and struggle to track fast backs on angles and swings. Gibbs posted 12/63 rushing and 3/28 receiving vs Dallas last season. With St. Brown out, Gibbs’ receiving role should expand even more. If Detroit plays with pace and uses motion to create mismatches, Gibbs can easily outproduce his rushing-only projection.

Suggested Play:
'O' 38.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery continues operating in the grinder role. He saw 8 carries for 32 yards and 1 TD and added 2 catches for 16 yards last game. His volume has been dropping because Gibbs has taken over most of the passing-down and open-field work. Monty has failed to top his Week 13 output (12.8 fantasy points) in seven straight games, mostly because his usage is touchdown-dependent now. The Cowboys allow only 92.5 rushing yards per game, and their defensive front is built more to stop interior power runs than perimeter speed. Monty did torch Dallas last season (12/80/2 rushing), but that came in a different game script and with a healthier Lions offensive line. In this particular matchup, with Gibbs taking most of the explosive work and Detroit likely needing to throw more without St. Brown, Montgomery’s yardage projection stays modest unless he spikes a red-zone carry.

Suggested Play:
'U' 35.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

WR Jameson Williams

Jameson Williams steps into the WR1 role with Amon-Ra St. Brown out, and he delivered immediately last week with 7 receptions for 144 yards and 1 TD on 10 targets (38%). He has hit 66+ yards and a TD in five of his last seven games. Dallas plays heavy zone coverage — Cover 3 (36.4%) and Cover 2 (22.5%) — and Williams has seen 1.60 yards per route run and a 15% target rate across 191 routes vs those coverage types. The Cowboys allow the most receiving yards per game to perimeter WRs (131.8) and the highest yards per reception (15.66). Their corners give up chunk gains repeatedly, and Williams is exactly the kind of vertical playmaker who capitalizes on that. He posted 3/76/1 vs the Cowboys last year, and this time he enters as the featured wideout. Volume + matchup + role all point in the same direction.

Suggested Play:
'O' 83.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

WR Isaac TeSlaa

Isaac TeSlaa has quietly carved out a meaningful role with Detroit’s injuries piling up. Last week he saw a season-high 92% snap share, ran almost every route, and caught 2 passes for 35 yards and a TD. He now has 3 TDs on just 11 targets to start his career. Against Dallas’ Cover 3/Cover 2 mix, TeSlaa has been less efficient (0.95 YPRR, 6% target rate on 63 routes), but this matchup boosts his opportunity. Dallas allows the third-most YPRR (2.34) and the highest yards per target (10.14) to wide receivers outside. Detroit needs someone besides Jameson Williams to step up on the perimeter, and TeSlaa will play nearly every snap again. His yardage ceiling isn’t high, but efficiency metrics say that one or two well-timed shots can easily push him past his line.

Suggested Play:
'O' 2.5 Receptions (-155)

This is a MUST win for both teams but Goff's track record coming off a loss is insane going 12-0 since 2023. That is something that is hard to fade. With that being said, in terms of a best bet I'm going with the Lions team total over 27.5. 

Best Bet: Lions TT 'O' 27.5 -135
Lean: Over 54.5 -118
Score Prediction Cowboys 27 Lions 30

Anytime TD

Best Pick: (Cowboys): George Pickens Anytime TD (+210)

Pickens to find the end zone was our suggested pick for him. He did not score last week, but found the end zone in the two previous weeks before that. The Lions really struggle to keep opposing WRs out of the end zone, allowing the 2nd most receiving TDs (1.58) per game to the position.

Best Pick: (Lions) Jameson Williams (-115)

The Cowboys’ heavy Cover 3 (36.4%) and Cover 2 (22.5%) usage also benefits Williams, because those coverages often leave seam routes and deep sideline shots available if the pass rush doesn’t get home. Williams has been productive in these looks, averaging 1.60 YPRR with steady usage across 191 routes. He posted 3/76/1 against Dallas last season even with limited volume, and now he gets WR1-level opportunity. Detroit will need Williams’ ability to create chunk plays to keep the offense balanced without St. Brown, and Goff’s aggressive intermediate throwing tendencies pair perfectly with Williams’ route profile. Considering both volume and matchup, Williams is a strong candidate to find the end zone at some point in this game.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Cowboys) George Pickens First TD (+900)

Against man coverage, Pickens leads the Cowboys in 1st read rate, inside the 20 targets, and end zone targets this season. Pickens has eight receiving TDs this season, but oddly enough, none of them have been the first score of the game. However, two of his eight TDs have been the Cowboys' first TD of the game. Surely he won't go the full season without scoring first, right? Surprisingly, the high-flying Lions' offence has allowed the opposing team to score the first TD of the game over the last two weeks.

Best Pick (Lions): Jahmyr Gibbs (+375)

Dallas is also uniquely vulnerable to the types of plays Gibbs thrives on. They allow the third-most receiving yards to running backs (44.7), and their linebackers often struggle to diagnose misdirection early in games. Gibbs’ acceleration into the second level is exactly the kind of trait that exploits an undisciplined first drive, especially against a defense that has recently given up explosive RB receptions and chunk gains on perimeter runs. If Detroit opens the game with scripted motion, play-action, and the spacing concepts they typically use on early downs, Gibbs is almost guaranteed to be the focal point of the first scoring opportunity. With Detroit likely trying to compensate for St. Brown’s absence by leaning on high-efficiency touches, Gibbs becomes the most probable Lion to strike first.

Parlay 1: (Cowboys) +250 odds on bet365

Dak Prescott 2+ Passing TDs

CeeDee Lamb 70+ Receiving Yards

George Pickens 70+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (Lions): +365 

Jared Goff 'O' 252.5 Pass Yards

Jahmyr Gibbs 'O' 5.5 Receptions

Jameson Williams 'O' 83.5 Receiving Yards

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua is averaging 190 passing yards per game, 6.81 YPA, a 67.2% completion rate and an average depth of target of 7 yards. He’s thrown 17 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. He’ll face a Jets defense that ranks 6th worst in EPA/Pass, yet has allowed the 10th fewest passing yards per game (196). The Jets blitz at the 7th highest rate (31.9%), yet have the 9th lowest pressure rate (34.6%). The Jets play man coverage at the 5th highest rate (36.4%) and two-high at the 9th highest rate (54.3). When blitzed, Tua averages 5.78 YPA, a 59.5% completion rate and an average depth of target of 7.6 yards. Against two-high, Tua averages 6.64 YPA, a 73% completion rate and an average depth of target of 6.5 yards. Against man, Tua averages 6.05 YPA, a 61.8% completion rate and a 6.3 yard average depth of target. This game has a 41.5-point implied total and the Dolphins are 3-point favorites on the road. I don’t have a strong opinion either way but I lean towards his unders.

Suggested Pick:

Under 212.5 Passing Yards (-114)

RB De’Von Achane

Achane averages 86.2 rushing yards per game on 5.56 YPC. He’s first amongst qualified RBs in explosive rush rate at 9.7%. Achane has dominated as of late with 174, 120 and 134 rushing yards in the past 3 games. He’ll face a Jets defense that is 8th worst in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 8th most rushing yards per game (131). The Jets are middle of the pack in explosive run rate allowed (4.4%). The Jets also allow the 4th most rushing touchdowns to opposing RBs. 57.5% of Achane’s rush attempts are in zone concept, where he averages 4.64 YPC and a 43.9% success rate. That compares to 7.15 YPC and a 53.7% success rate in man/gap. The Jets allow the 10th most YPC (4.34) against zone concept, compared to the 8th fewest YPC (3.90) to man/gap concept. In the receiving game, Achane has run a route on 65% of dropbacks and he’s averaging 30.8 yards per game, 1.46 YPRR, and 28% TPRR. The Jets allow the 11th fewest receiving yards, 5th fewest receptions, but the 4th most receiving TDs to RB. I like Achane rushing overs here.

Suggested Pick:

Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-130)

Anytime Touchdown (-120)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Prior to Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, Waddle averaged 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.75 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 25.6% 1st-read rate. In the 8 games without Tyreek, Waddle is averaging 72.1 receiving yards per game, 2.94 YPRR, 28% TPRR and a 31.3% 1st-read rate. Waddle has lined up out wide on 77% of his routes since Tyreek went down. He’ll face a Jets defense that ranks 6th worst in EPA/Pass, yet has allowed the 10th fewest receiving yards per game (196).  They specifically allow the 9th most YPRR to wide alignment (2.08). The Jets blitz at the 7th highest rate (31.9%), yet have the 9th lowest pressure rate (34.6%). The Jets play man coverage at the 5th highest rate (36.4%) and two-high at the 9th highest rate (54.3). When Tua is blitzed without Tyreek, Waddle averages 2.6 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. Against man coverage, he averages just 1.32 YPRR, yet has been targeted on 32% of his routes. Against two-high, Waddle averages 2.43 YPRR and 25% TPRR. Waddle is under in back-to-back games, but I like him to bounce back here.

Suggested Pick:

Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Darren Waller

In Waller’s first action since week 7 with a pec injury, he ran a route on 65.5% of dropbacks. He caught 2 of 3 targets for 47 yards. Outside of the game Waller was injured early in the game, Waller averages 41 receiving yards per game, 2.00 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. He’s had 5 end zone targets and has caught 4 of them during that time (4 games). He’ll face a Jets defense that has allowed the 10th fewest receiving yards per game, but the 6th most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Rather than taking yards or receptions, I like his value to score a touchdown this week.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (+270)

QB Tyrod Taylor

In Taylor’s 3 starts this season, he’s averaging 197 passing yards per game, 6.09 YPA and a 63.9% completion rate. He’s thrown 4 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. He’s run 21 times for a total of 111 rushing yards in those 3 starts. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks 5th worst in EPA/Pass allowed, but is middle of the pack in passing yards allowed (208 YPG). The Dolphins blitz at the 6th highest rate (31.9%) and have the 12th highest pressure rate (39%). They run two-high at a top 5 rate (55.6%). When blitzed, Tyrod averages 6.26 YPA and a 54.3% completion rate. Against two-high, he averages 6.19 YPA and a 61.1% completion rate. That compares to 5.78 YPA and a 60.5% completion rate against single-high. The Dolphins have allowed the 4th most rushing yards and the 6th most rushing touchdowns to QBs. At a 23.5 yard rushing prop, I like his over.

Suggested Pick:

Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

RB Breece Hall

Breece Hall averages 69.5 rushing yards per game, 4.46 YPC and is 3rd in the league in explosive rush rate amongst qualified RBs at 8.0%. Breece had a season-high 88.9% snap rate last week and has a 48%+ route participation rate in 3 straight games. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that is middle of the pack in EPA/Rush allowed but has allowed the 4th most rushing yards per game (138). They are also allowing the 3rd highest explosive run rate (7.6%). Against zone concepts, the Dolphins allow the 5th most YPC (4.75) but the 9th lowest success rate (44.8%). Against man/gap, the Dolphins allow the 13th most YPC (4.59) but the 5th lowest success rate (41.9%). 70% of Hall’s attempts have been zone concepts. He’s averaging 4.72 YPC in zone concept compared to 3.94 YPC in man/gap. Hall has been hit or miss in the receiving game. In the past 4 weeks he’s had 8 receiving yards, 75, 6 and 42. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that allows the 7th most receiving yards to RB. I’d rather attack him in the run game in a rare matchup the Jets are just 3-point underdogs.

Suggested Pick:

Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

WR Adonai Mitchell

Adonai Mitchell finally broke out last week, catching 8 of 12 targets for 102 receiving yards and his first career touchdown. In the prior week, he caught 2 of 7 targets for 42 yards against the Ravens. Since joining the Jets, Adonai is averaging 1.88 YPRR, has been targeted on 30% of his routes and has an elite 1st-read rate of 41.8%. He’s always had the separation skills to get open, catching has been the problem to start his career. He looks to get more comfortable each week in an expanded role as the WR1 for a Jets team without Garrett Wilson. He’ll face a Dolphins defense that ranks 5th worst in EPA/Pass allowed, but is middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed (208 YPG). The Dolphins blitz at the 6th highest rate (31.9%) and have the 12th highest pressure rate (39%). They run two-high at a top 5 rate (55.6%). Please note these splits are a small sample size, but when blitzed he’s averaging 2.25 YPRR and has been targeted on 46% of his routes (28 routes). Against two-high, he’s averaging 2.43 YPRR but his TPRR drops to 18% (28 routes). Again, these are small sample sizes so I wouldn’t put too much weight on them. 

Suggested Pick:

Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Mason Taylor

On the season, Mason Taylor is averaging 26.5 receiving yards per game, 1.04 YPRR, and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. In the 2 weeks since Taylor took over as the starter, Mason has 21 receiving yards in back to back weeks. He hasn’t had more than 34 receiving yards since week 5. His route participation rate has taken a dip since week 10, at a 62.1% rate, compared to 75.9% from week 1 to 8 (pre-bye). He’ll face a Dolphins defense that has allowed the 4th most receptions, 4th most receiving yards and 5th most receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends. The Dolphins blitz at the 6th highest rate (31.9%) and have the 12th highest pressure rate (39%). They run two-high at a top 5 rate (55.6%). Taylor averages 0.78 YPRR and 13% TPRR against the blitz. Against two-high, he averages 1.13 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. Despite the bullish matchup, it’s hard to trust the rookie tight end.

Suggested Pick:

Under 3.5 Receptions (-160)

The shit matchups are always tough to pick this time of year but the Dolphins have more to lose in my opinion. McDaniels will want to make a good impression before the end of the year. Give me the Dolphins to beat this dysfunctional Jets organization

Best Bet: Dolphins -2.5 -115
Lean: Over 41.5 -125
Score Prediction Dolphins 27 Jets 20

Anytime TD

Breece Hall (+105)

Darren Waller (+270)

First TD Scorer

Breece Hall (+575)

De’Von Achane (+380)

Parlay #1 (Dolphins): +322

Tua Tagovailoa Under 213.5 Passing Yards
De’Von Achane 80+ Rushing Yards
De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown

Parlay #2 (Jets) +365

Tyrod Taylor 25+ Rushing Yards
Breece Hall 70+ Rushing Yards
Adonai Mitchell 40+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #3 (Longshot) +2912

Tyrod Taylor 40+ Rushing Yards
Tua Tagovailoa Under 213.5 Passing Yards
De’Von Achane 2+ Touchdowns

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is averaging 190 passing yards per game, 6.73 YPA and a 65.2% completion rate. He’s thrown 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Rodgers’ returned to the lineup last week after missing a game due to a fractured left wrist. He completed a season-low 48% of his passes for just 117 passing yards. He also only played out of the shotgun, which eliminates a deceptive component to the defense. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 13th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th most passing yards per game. The Ravens have the 6th lowest pressure rate on the season (34%). They run the 3rd highest rate of single-high (61%) and the 6th highest rate of man coverage (36.1%). When not pressured, Rodgers averages 7.00 YPA, a 72% completion rate and a 103.6 QB rating. Against single-high, he averages 5.9 YPA, a 60% completion rate and a 84.7 QB rating. Against man, he averages 4.69 YPA, a 47.7% completion rate and a 82.7 QB rating. I lean under on his passing props.

Suggested Pick:

Under 19.5 Completions (-102)

RB Jaylen Warren

Warren averages 58.1 rushing yards per game on 4.23 YPC. His snap rate increased from 49.3% the week prior to 55.8% in week 13, 1 week removed from his ankle injury. Expecting closer to a 60% snap rate this week. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 11th best in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 15th most rushing yards per game (118). Rodgers was unable to operate under center last week, so all of Warren’s attempts were out of shotgun formation. Warren averages 3.67 YPC in shotgun, compared to 4.78 YPC under center. The Ravens allow the 5th fewest YPC to shotgun rush attempts (4.44), compared to the 8th most YPC allowed when the QB is under center (4.25). After running a route on just 23.5% of dropbacks in his 1st game after leaving earlier the previous game due to an ankle injury, Warren ran more routes than Gainwell in week 13. He caught just 2 of 4 targets for 9 receiving yards in a tough matchup against the Bills. Now he’ll face a Ravens defense that allows the 6th most receiving yards to RB. Warren has surpassed his 10.5 receiving yards line in 5 of last 5 matchups against the Ravens. In a game the Steelers are 6-point underdogs, I like Warren’s chances to surpass this line this week. 

Suggested Pick:

Over 1.5 Receptions (-138)

Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

20+ Receiving Yards (+194)

25+ Receiving Yards (+280)

30+ Receiving Yards (+400)

WR DK Metcalf

DK is averaging 50.4 receiving yards per game, 1.79 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He leads the team in 1st-read rate at 26.9%. He’s caught a team-high 5 touchdowns on the season. He has primarily lined up out wide, at a 79.9% rate. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 13th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th most receiving yards per game. They specifically allow the 6th fewest YPRR to wide alignment (1.75).  The Ravens have the 6th lowest pressure rate on the season (34%). They run the 3rd highest rate of single-high (61%) and the 6th highest rate of man coverage (36.1%). When his QB is not pressured, DK averages 2.52 YPRR, 30% TPRR and has a 27.3% 1st-read rate. Against single-high, he averages 1.85 YPRR, 30% TPRR and a 33.3% 1st-read rate. Against man coverage, he averages just 0.68 YPRR and 16% TPRR. 

Suggested Pick:

Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Pat Freiermuth/Jonnu Smith/Darnell Washington

This tight end group is tough to figure out. Last week, Darnell dominated routes, leading the group with a 68% route rate, with Jonnu coming in 2nd at 40%. The week prior, Jonnu led at 61.8% and Freiermuth was 2nd at 52.9%. Darnell Washington caught 2 of 4 targets for 45 yards against the Bills last week. Pat caught 3 of 3 targets for 19 yards, yet was 3rd at the position in routes run. Jonnu caught 1 of 2 targets for just 6 yards against the Bills. This group will face a Ravens defense is middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed to tight end. We cannot trust Arthur Smith with his TE playing time decisions, I’d pass on all of these guys, especially with an ailing Aaron Rodgers.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

QB Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson’s slump continued on Thanksgiving, where he completed 17 of 32 passes for 246 yards, no touchdowns, and 1 interception, adding only 27 rushing yards on 6 attempts. He has now gone three straight games without accounting for a touchdown, and he’s produced 1 or fewer TDs in five of his last six. Since returning from injury, opponents have limited his rushing lanes, and he has topped 27 rushing yards only once in his last five games. His season rushing average has fallen to 29.3 yards per game, which is 22 yards below his previous career low. The Steelers play one of the highest man-coverage rates in the league — 34.5% (7th) — and Lamar has been respectable vs man, averaging 7.93 YPA, +1.3% CPOE, and 6/47 rushing on 100 dropbacks. Pittsburgh’s secondary is giving up the sixth-most passing yards per game (264.8) and the 10th-most passing TDs (1.7). Last week Josh Allen had 123 yards and 1 TD passing, plus 38 rushing yards and a rushing TD, showing that QBs can still find production through second-reaction plays. Lamar posted 414 yards and 4 TDs (plus 2 INTs) and added 13/68 rushing in two games vs Pittsburgh last season. Despite his recent struggles, the matchup provides a clear path to a bounce-back performance as long as Baltimore stabilizes its protection and gives Lamar space to work.

Suggested Play:
'O' 221.5 Passing Yards (-120)

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry comes in riding a strong stretch of consistency. He scored for the third straight game, finishing with 10 carries for 60 yards and a TD, plus a 44-yard reception last week. He has now topped 71 total yards in seven straight games, and he’s posted at least 11.4 points of production in all seven. Henry’s volume is also highly tied to game script — he averages 18.3 carries per win vs 14.5 in losses, and Baltimore enters this game as a 6.5-point home favorite, which should push his touch count upward. Pittsburgh’s run defense is solid in structure but vulnerable when they lose gap control. They allow the 14th-most rushing yards per game (100.3) and rank 10th-worst in adjusted yards before contact (2.29), meaning backs often reach the second level cleanly. They do, however, give up the seventh-fewest rushing TDs per game (0.4) — so touchdowns often require sustained drives or explosive plays. Still, James Cook gashed them for 32/144 rushing and added 3/33 receiving last week. Henry also dominated this matchup last year with 37 carries for 227 yards and a TD, plus 2/27 receiving over two meetings. The projected workload plus matchup trends make Henry a key focal point again.

Suggested Play:
'O' 81.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers and the entire Ravens offense fell flat against Cincinnati, with Flowers posting 2 catches for 6 yards on 7 targets, plus a lost fumble. Despite the down week, he has totaled 64+ yards in 9 of 11 games this season, though he hasn’t scored since Week 1. Against man coverage — which Pittsburgh uses on 34.5% of snaps — Flowers has been productive across 117 routes, averaging 2.15 yards per route run and earning targets at a 26% rate. His role naturally increases when games tighten because he’s Baltimore’s most reliable separator against man leverage. The Steelers allow the fourth-most receiving yards per game to outside WRs (121.8) but surprisingly give up the 16th-fewest yards per route run (1.91) to perimeter receivers. In other words, teams don’t get efficient production — but they get plenty of volume. Flowers posted 2/39/1 in one meeting and 5/100 in the other against Pittsburgh last season. With Baltimore needing to recalibrate its offense and Lamar likely throwing more than usual, Flowers should rebound with a substantial target load.

Suggested Play:
'O' 21.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

TE Mark Andrews

TE Mark Andrews enters this matchup with one of the strongest paths to a touchdown on the Ravens’ roster. Pittsburgh’s defense has been consistently vulnerable to tight ends all season, allowing the sixth-most receiving yards (63.8) and the eighth-most receptions (6.1) per game to the position. Their struggles come from a combination of factors: linebackers who are slow to match vertical stems, safeties who overplay crossers, and a pass rush that forces QBs into quick-processing situations where tight ends naturally become primary reads. Andrews’ efficiency vs man coverage — which Pittsburgh uses on 34.5% of snaps — strengthens his case. He averages 2.03 yards per route and draws targets at a 23% rate in those looks, which is elite for the position. Baltimore also leans on Andrews in structured scoring areas because he is Lamar’s most trusted player on fades, seams, and option routes inside the 15-yard line. Last season, he posted 6/59/1 across two games vs Pittsburgh, and the Steelers haven’t shown improvement in their tight end coverage in 2024. Given Baltimore’s recent offensive issues, Andrews represents the most stable, matchup-friendly outlet for Lamar Jackson — especially in the red zone, where Baltimore desperately needs reliable hands and strong catch-point play. Andrews’ route share, historical production vs this opponent, and the coverage tendencies he’s facing all point toward a strong chance he finds the end zone at some point during this game.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+165)

The Steelers have had trouble containing the run and that is how the Ravens will beat you. This is a rivalry game so I'm expecting it to be a grind it out type of game but Ravens pull off the win. 

Best Bet: Ravens 'O' 23.5 Pts -130
Lean: Ravens -5.5 -125
Score Prediction Steelers 17 Ravens 24

Anytime TD

Best Play: (Ravens) Mark Andrews +165

TE Mark Andrews enters this matchup with one of the strongest paths to a touchdown on the Ravens’ roster. Pittsburgh’s defense has been consistently vulnerable to tight ends all season, allowing the sixth-most receiving yards (63.8) and the eighth-most receptions (6.1) per game to the position. Their struggles come from a combination of factors: linebackers who are slow to match vertical stems, safeties who overplay crossers, and a pass rush that forces QBs into quick-processing situations where tight ends naturally become primary reads. Andrews’ efficiency vs man coverage — which Pittsburgh uses on 34.5% of snaps — strengthens his case. He averages 2.03 yards per route and draws targets at a 23% rate in those looks, which is elite for the position. Baltimore also leans on Andrews in structured scoring areas because he is Lamar’s most trusted player on fades, seams, and option routes inside the 15-yard line. Last season, he posted 6/59/1 across two games vs Pittsburgh, and the Steelers haven’t shown improvement in their tight end coverage in 2024. Given Baltimore’s recent offensive issues, Andrews represents the most stable, matchup-friendly outlet for Lamar Jackson — especially in the red zone, where Baltimore desperately needs reliable hands and strong catch-point play. Andrews’ route share, historical production vs this opponent, and the coverage tendencies he’s facing all point toward a strong chance he finds the end zone at some point during this game.

Jaylen Warren (+185)

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Ravens) Derrick Henry +365

Derrick Henry has been the one consistent force in Baltimore’s offense over the last month, scoring in three straight games and piling up 71+ scrimmage yards in seven straight. The Ravens are 6.5-point home favorites, which historically correlates strongly with early Henry usage. When Baltimore plays with a lead, Henry averages 18.3 carries per game, and his first-quarter workload typically spikes as the offense tries to establish physicality early. That alone gives him a meaningful edge in first-touchdown probability. The Steelers have also been giving up early rushing opportunities. They rank 10th-worst in adjusted yards before contact allowed (2.29), meaning backs routinely get downhill before defenders can disrupt the run. James Cook just ran for 144 yards on this defense last week, repeatedly hitting the second level untouched. Pittsburgh also has a pattern of bending early on opening drives as teams script their best run concepts and motion packages. That directly benefits Henry, who thrives on early-down power looks and misdirection plays that force linebackers to hesitate. Henry’s history against Pittsburgh reinforces this angle as well — he posted 37/227/1 rushing across two meetings last season, consistently breaking through arm tackles and generating chunk gains in the first half. With Baltimore needing to regain offensive rhythm and re-establish an identity around physicality, Henry is the most likely candidate to receive the first red-zone touch. All indicators — matchup, script, recent form, and usage — point to Henry being in prime position to score first.

Jaylen Warren (+1000)

 Parlay #1 (Ravens) +425

Lamar Jackson 'O' 221.5 Pass Yards
Zay Flowers 'O' 21.5 Longest Reception
Derrick Henry 'O' 81.5 Rush Yards

Parlay #2 (Steelers) +364

Jaylen Warren 20+ Receiving Yards
DK Metcalf Under 46.5 Receiving Yards

QB Tyler Shough

Tyler Shough was serviceable last week for New Orleans, throwing for 239 yards with 2 TD and an INT in a 21-17 loss at Miami. He averaged only 6.3 YPPA for the day, and since week 8 the Saints QB is averaging just 6.6 YPPA. Shough continues to have major issues dealing with pressure. When provided with a clean pocket, he's completed 73.4% of his passes for 7.1 yards per attempt, but when under pressure or blitzed his completion rate plummets to 42.1% with a microscopic 4.9 YPPA. The bottom line here is that Tyler Shough has performed poorly with regard to efficiency no matter the circumstance, completing just 46.9% of his overall throws (31st among QB's). He's faced Tampa Bay once this season, where he completed 17 or 30 passes for 128 yards and an INT. This Sunday, he will face a MUCH tougher defense than the one he saw back in week 8. The Buccaneers rank 6th in pressure rate (39.2%) and 5th in blitz rate (31.4%). Neither spells good news for Shough, who has been picked off in all but one of 5 games he has played in this year. The Bucs have each of their starting corners healthy for this game in Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum, who both rank among the top 10 in their position this season. He will also be playing on the road, and there are too many intangibles going against Shough here. He will throw at LEAST one interception this Sunday at Raymond James Stadium versus a Tampa Bay defense that is finally healthy and ready for its stretch run.

Suggested Bet:

Tyler Shough o0.5 Interceptions (-143)

Tyler Shough 2+ ALT Interceptions (+279)

RB Devin Neal

Alvin Kamara has yet to return to practice, but somehow he's still showing up as probable on the injury report. Still, Devin Neal is fully healthy and the one to back going into week 14. He handled 81% of the snaps last week in Miami, turning 17 touches into 69 yards. From a running standpoint, it's hard to imagine him finding much success against a Buccaneers defense who is allowing the 6th fewest rushing YPG (77.4) to opposing RBs. Furthermore, they have a 66.8% success rate (3rd best in NFL), allowing a first down or touchdown on a league-low 17.1% of those runs. However, there is excellent value here for Neal in the passing game. He had 3 receptions last week for 22 yards against a Dolphins defense that is giving up 36.8 receiving YPG (12th most). Now, he has the luxury of facing Tampa Bay, who ranks dead last in this category. They are surrendering 56.8 receiving YPG to opposing RBs. That's exactly 20 more yards on average than Miami. Devin Neal is by far my favorite spot on the board for New Orleans this Sunday. Tyler Shough is going to face significantly more pressure than he did last week in Miami, and he will have to rely on Neal as a safety blanket, especially for check downs throughout this game.

Suggested Bet:

Devin Neal o17.5 Rec Yards (-156)

Devin Neal 25+ ALT Rec Yards (+135)

Devin Neal 40+ ALT Rec Yards (+295)

WR Chris Olave

Last week, Chris Olave had 4 catches for 47 yards and a TD in Miami. He's seen his volume skyrocket since the departure of Rashid Shaheed, and since Tyler Shough has taken over at QB he's been targeted 44 times in 5 starts, hauling in 29 balls for 341 yards and 2 TD. Moreover, Olave is getting 28.3% of the Saints targets, ranking him 5th overall in the NFL among receivers with 9.6 targets per game. Now that I've waxed eloquent about Chris Olave, I have MAJOR concerns with him on the road this Sunday in a game where he's likely to be brough back down to earth. This is because he will be facing a much healthier Buccaneers defense this time around, and Olave will be lined up across from Jamel Dean who is having a career year in Tampa. He's allowing a league-best 41.5% completion rate and a 29.8 passer rating when targeted. He has three interceptions, including a pick-six, which drives his -0.548 EPA allowed per target. He ranks 12th in lockdown rate, 7th in advanced coverage grade and 3rd in positive grade rate. Olave is always capable of busting a big play out of the slot, where TB allows the 11th most YPRR (1.86), but that's irrelavant to me for this week. This is because we need to remember that it took 12 targets just to get Olave to 8 receptions in week 8, and the game script here will make even 10 targets difficult to reach. And I have to say, as much as I have been critical of Todd Bowles throughout the season, he is one of the best in making defensive adjustments. Olave will be at the top of his film session list this week. His line of 5.5 total receptions reveals the books are clearly backing the same narrative that I've laid out here. There are going to be a ton of betters that look at Chris Olave's numbers over the last 5 weeks, and in particular against Tampa Bay in week 8, and get sucked into this trap play. Please DO NOT be one of them.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Olave u5.5 Receptions (-126)

WR Devaughn Vele

Devaughn Vele finally showed signs of a heartbeat last week as he caught each of his 8 targets for 93 yards, to go with a touchdown last Sunday in Miami. That said, I have serious reservations about Vele entering week 14 at Tampa Bay. Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum are amongst the best CBs in the league. If you need proof, consider Arizona receiver Michael Wilson. After posting back-to-back games of 15 rec, 185 yds (vs SF) and 10 rec, 118 yds (vs JAX), the Bucs defense absolutely shut down the red hot Cardinals receiver last week at Raymond James, limiting him to just 3 catches for 27 yards. For the game, the Bucs corners gave up only 7.0 YPT to ARI. I expect a very similar script here, where the Saints receivers are held in check, with the majority of New Orleans receiving production getting funneled out to the tailback and tight end positions.

Suggested Bet:

Devaughn Vele u35.5 Rec Yards (-109)

TE Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson recorded 5 catches for 53 yards in this same matchup in week 9. Johnson has seen an 18.8% target share in '25, but his usage/production from week to week has been extremely sporadic, making him one of the more difficult players to project. However, I think he holds significant value this week. As I said in my previous writeups, Tampa Bay's corners have been shutting down opposing WRs, leaving the backs and tight ends left to the heavy lifting. This is where Johnson has good value on Sunday. The Bucs defense deploys Cover-3 (35.0%) and Cover 4 (17.9%) schemes for 52.9% of its snaps, and Johnson is averaging 1.50 YPRR and .20 TPRR on 200 routes vs these coverages. Tampa Bay may be allowing the 13th fewest receiving YPG (48.5) in this spot, but they are giving up the 14th most receptions (5.4) to TEs here. Much like Devin Neal, quarterback Tyler Shough will need to rely on Johnson's big frame in the passing game for check downs and short passing routes.

Suggested Bet:

Juwan Johnson o3.5 Receptions (-173)

QB Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield may not be matching the numbers he did from last year, but he's showing why he's one of the top QBs in the league by valuing each possession. This has led to a 19 to 5 TD:INT ratio for the 9th year quarterback out of Oklahoma. He's also showing a lot of grit right now as he's playing through an injured shoulder in his non-throwing arm. Mayfield has played the majority of the season without future HOF receiver Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan and a banged up offensive line, but he's gritted through it and now the Bucs are getting healthier by the week. Baker has also been running the ball more recently, putting up games of 39, 19 and 27 rushing yards over the past three weeks. Mayfield was just 15 of 24 for 152 yards (0 TD, 0 INT) in his last start vs New Orleans in week 9, but this was a road game that found the Buccaneers literally limping into its bye week, so I expect him to perform much better this time around at home. Since arriving in Tampa, Baker Mayfield has been electric in his 5 starts against the Saints. He is 4-1 vs NO, averaging 250 passing YPG, to go with 11 touchdown passes. That said, he's thrown for 194 yards or less in 4 of his last 5 games, and the Saints deploy the 4th highest rate of Cover-3 (40.8%), where Mayfield is averaging just 6.08 YPA with a -5.2% CPOE on 132 dropbacks. The New Orleans defense is also allowing the 6th fewest passing YPG (202.7) to opposing QB's, and has held passers to 218 or fewer yards in 10 of 12 games this season. I also think the Bucs defense is going to wreak havoc on rookie QB Tyler Shough, which could lead to short field drives on Sunday. I look for him to be much more efficient, but this is a game where Tampa Bay should get out in front early, and ride the legs of Bucky Irving to victory. 

Suggested Bet:

Baker Mayfield u218.5 Pass Yards (-111)

RB Bucky Irving

Bucky Irving returned to the lineup last week for a 52.5% snap share, but he took full advantage when he was on the field, turning 19 touches into 81 yards and a TD. If not for a penalty, Irving would have finished the game with two scores. Irving will continue to see a slow increase in usage as a pass-catching back due to the effectiveness of Rachaad White in this position, but this is an excellent matchup for Bucky to build upon on the ground. New Orleans is facing the 2nd most backfield runs this season (26.0) and 3rd most backfield touches. This is a direct result of being behind in nearly every game they have played this season, leading the Saints to allow 110.8 rushing YPG (4th most). Bucky Irving is a strong back, who rarely gets touched behind the line of scrimmage and he's one of the best in the game in yards after contact (YAC). He's set up for a solid week 14.

No NFL team had to endure a tougher 7-game stretch than Tampa Bay. It's for this reason why the Buccaneers were so focused to begin the season. They came out of gate 3-0, and it's a good thing because little did they know that they would have to face this chunk of the schedule without Mike Evans and Bucky Irving, their two biggest offensive playmakers, along with key pieces to the offensive line and a plethora of defensive injuries. With the exception of a one-week pardon where the Bucs hammered New Orleans 23-3, Todd Bowles' team played PHI (8-4), @ SEA (9-3), SF (9-4), @ DET (7-5), NE (11-2), @ BUF (8-4) and @ LAR (9-3). These 7 teams are currently sitting at a combined 61-21, an insane .744% win percentage. Led by Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay managed to come out of this alive. Following last week's 20-17 home win over Arizona, the Buccaneers are 7-5 and have more than earned the luxury of finishing the season with the league's easiest schedule. But, the best news of all out of One Buc Place is the return of Bucky Irving, Jamel Dean and Luke Goedeke. Perhaps the most inspiring story out of Tampa right now is Mike Evans' early return to practice this week. The veteran WR is ahead of schedule after suffering a broken collarbone in week 6. The Bucs are hopeful that Evans can return by week 14 or 15. This would give them a huge shot in the arm. and a team who was once unfairly written off is looking to capture its 5th consecutive NFC South title, along with a deep playoff run. The Bucs are set up for a big win this Sunday against a New Orleans team who they have won 6 of their last 7 against. Furthermore, Baker Mayfield has been electric vs the Saints since arriving in Tampa. The Buccaneers starting QB is 4-1 vs NO and in those 5 starts he is averaging 250 passing YPG, to go with 11 touchdown passes. The Saints are a complete dumpster fire right now, and the Bucs defensive pressure is going to absolutely overwhelm Tyler Shough at Raymond James Stadium this Sunday.

Best Bet: Buccaneers -8.5 -110
Lean: Under 41.5 -120
Score Prediction: Saints 10 Buccaneers 27

Anytime TD

Best Play:  Chris Godwin  (Buccaneers): +190

Chris Godwin saw 5 targets last week, his most since back in week 4. He finished with 78 yards against the Cardinals, and while he has yet to find the end zone this season, Godwin is tied for the most end zone targets over the past two weeks. He has nice value this Sunday when he goes up against a Saints team that has the 8th worst reception rate allowed (65.4%) and the 7th worst YPT allowed (11.8) to opposing wide receivers.

First TD Scorer

Best Play:  Emeka Egbuka  (Buccaneers): +500

Despite a decrease in Egbuka's production, he is still among the top 3 players for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He enters week 14 with a 29.4% target share, and still ranks 10th in the NFL averaging 15.2 YPR. He's facing a New Orleans defense that is allowing a 7.8% TD rate (7th highest) to opposing WRs.

Parlay #1 (Buccaneers) +470

Bucky Irving 70+ Rec Yards

Chris Godwin 40+ Rec Yards

Bucky Irving Anytime TD

Parlay #2 (Saints) +335

Tyler Shough 1+ Interceptions

Devin Neal 15+ Rec Yards

Juwan Johnson 4+ Receptions

QB Daniel Jones
Jones is playing through a fractured fibula, which has severely limited his mobility (1 carry for 1 yard last week). On the season, he has 3,041 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. The matchup is favorable in terms of passing. Jacksonville is a pass funnel defense facing the league's highest pass rate. Jones excels in play-action (71.8% completion rate and 9.3 yards per attempt), and the Jaguars struggle defending it (allowing 8.0 YPA vs. play-action compared to 6.0 YPA without). While the passing efficiency should be there, his injury makes his rushing floor non-existent. Fade his rushing props but expect decent passing numbers.

 Suggested Picks
‘U’ 6.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

RB Jonathan Taylor
Taylor leads the league with 1,282 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on 226 carries (5.67 YPC). Last week, he dominated usage with 21 carries for 85 yards and 3 catches for 36 yards, which felt like an inefficient day for him in a tough matchup. On the season his advanced stats remain incredible with a 5.67 yards per carry (only behind Jahmyr Gibbs of qualified RB’s), 7.1% explosive run rate (5th best), 56.2% success rate, and 2.71 YACO/A. Jacksonville's run defense is stout, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry (4th lowest) and holding backs under 64 rushing yards all season. They have only allowed 4 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. However, they are vulnerable through the air, allowing the 8th most targets and yards to running backs. Given the tough sledding on the ground, expect Taylor to be involved as a receiver. I’d look for receiving props over rushing yardage.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-130)

WR Alec Pierce
Pierce is averaging a massive 20.88 yards per reception on 33 catches for 689 yards this season. Last week, he caught 4 passes for 78 yards - a nice bounce back from the dud the week prior. He lines up out wide 88.7% of the time, which is perfect against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed to outside receivers. Additionally, Pierce has historically dominated his likely matchup against cornerback Montaric Brown (109 receiving yards on him in just 29 routes). With a high first-read share (22.6%) and a pass-funnel script, backing his receiving over is a strong play. He’s the type that could cash it in just one play or two.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman has 60 catches for 620 yards and 7 touchdowns but averages a lower 10.33 yards per reception. He had just 1 catch for 13 yards last week. His advanced numbers remain solid: 20.3% team yardage share, 10.33 YPR, 3.60 YAC/R, 24.7% first-read rate, and a 120.8 passer rating when thrown to. Despite a 20.9% target share, he has only cracked 60 yards four times this season. Even in a good matchup, his low average depth of target and lack of explosive plays make him hard to trust. Take the under on his receiving yards.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Tyler Warren
Warren is having a breakout season with 58 catches for 684 yards and 4 touchdowns, including a score last week. He ranks first among tight ends in receiving yards from inline alignments, and Jacksonville ranks 26th in defending inline tight ends. Furthermore, Warren leads the team with a 27.3% target share on play-action passes—a weakness for the Jaguars that we discussed in Jones’ write-up. With Jacksonville allowing the 2nd most targets and receptions to the position, this looks like a smash spot. I’ll back Warren’s receptions, but yardage is fine too.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-140)

QB Trevor Lawrence
It continues to be an up and down season for Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence has thrown for 2,636 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions on the season. Last week, he threw for 229 yards and 2 scores, as JAC cruised to a victory against the lowly Titans. The Colts play man coverage at the 8th highest rate (30.5%), a scheme against which Lawrence ranks 10th in passing grade. Lawrence has been much better against man coverage than zone coverage all season. Indianapolis faces a league-high 38 pass attempts per game, which qualifies them as a pass funnel defense. The Colts are also allowing 6.9 yards per attempt with a 3.5% touchdown rate. With the potential for a shootout, backing Lawrence’s passing yards is the play.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 220.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
Etienne has 843 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns on 181 carries, but his receiving production has dipped this season (2.1 catches per game). Last week, he had just 12 carries for 28 yards - which amounted to his worst rushing day of the season. Luckily, they didn’t need it. While the Colts allow the 10 rushing touchdowns to backs, they allow the 9th fewest yards per carry (3.9) and 10th fewest rushing yards per game. With Bhayshul Tuten stealing goal-line work and Etienne struggling for efficiency, taking the under on his rushing yards is our best option.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Bayshul Tuten
Tuten has 75 carries for 272 yards and 4 touchdowns, serving as an efficient (57.3% success rate) change-of-pace back. Last week he scored a touchdown on 8 carries with just 17 yards. While he has earned goal-line equity, his weekly volume is too volatile to rely on. I think JAC likes his ability after contact. He is a pass for betting purposes.

Suggested Picks
PASS

WR Jakobi Meyers
Since joining Jacksonville, Meyers has been electric, catching 18 of 21 targets (85.7%) for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns. Last week he posted 6 catches for 90 yards. His route participation has climbed to 93.8%, effectively making him the WR1 in this offense thanks to Thomas taking a major step back. He faces Indianapolis corner Kenny Moore II, against whom he has a 33% career target rate. With the Colts allowing the 3rd most targets and 2nd most receptions to receivers, Meyers is in a prime spot. I’ll back his receptions.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-120)

WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Thomas is struggling through his sophomore slump and it didn’t get better off of his latest injury. He only caught 2 passes for 28 yards last week on 3 targets. His efficiency has plummeted from 2.46 yards per route run early in the season to 1.44 YPRR. His advanced numbers are just ok: 19.4% target rate, 21.7% team yardage rate, 14.00 YPR, 4.69 YAC/R, 23.5% 1st read rate, and 73.9 passer rating when targeted. Although he plays out wide 75.1% of the time, the production simply isn't there. Parker Washington (questionable with a hip injury) may not play, which raises Thomas’ ceiling some.Either way, Thomas is a fade or stay away for me.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - LEAN

TE Brenton Strange
Strange is emerging as a weapon, catching 28 of 33 targets (84.8%) for 342 yards. Last week, he had 3 catches for 45 yards and a score. He owns a 12.2 yards per reception, 5.4 yards after the catch per reception and 7.8 aDOT. Strange works a little out wide, but primarily remains in-line or out of the slot (~85% of snaps between the two). He faces an Indianapolis defense that is abysmal against tight ends, allowing the 3rd most targets (8.92), 4th most receptions (6.58), and 2nd most receiving yards (72.1) per game to the position. With an 84.8% catch rate and a great matchup, back his yardage.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

We get a divisonal bout between the Colts and Jags, both of which are 8-4 at this point in the season. The winner will take the division lead and hold an important tie-breaker - at least until they play again later this season. I continue to want to fade the Jaguars because of the unsustainable turnover ratio and waivering Lawrence play, but they just keep finding ways to win. With no Sauce Gardner is this one and Daniel Jones on a broken leg, I think we see JAC pull through once again. At the very least I like this game to have shootout potential. Both defenses are pass funnels and we could see team score quickly.

Best Bet: Over 46.5 Points -115
Lean: Jags ML +110
Score Prediction Colts 24 Jaguars 27

Anytime TD

Best Pick: (Colts) Tyler Warren +175
WE get great matchups for both tight ends in this game and I could see them both scoring. Jacksonville allows the 2nd most targets and receptions to the tight end position, while allowing the third most touchdowns to TE's (7). Warren holds a team-high 18 redzone targets and with Jones limited with the leg injury, Warren makes for a great target up close.

Longshot: (Jaguars) Brenton Strange +310
Strange nabbed his first touchdown of the season last week and has looked great since returning from the IR. He's shown some goal line usage and big play ability. He faces an Indianapolis defense that is abysmal against tight ends, allowing the 3rd most targets (8.92), 4th most receptions (6.58), and 2nd most receiving yards (72.1) per game to the position. IND has allowed 5 receiving touchdowns to opposing TD's this season, which is top half in the leauge. This looks like a nice spot for Strange to have another nice game in what could have shootout potential.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Colts) Jonathan Taylor +320
What IND tries to do with it's gameplan is run early to establish the play action. That's why we usually see JT score early if he does. He has the highest total backfield carries in the league this season (over 85%). He's a one man show and they should try to establish the run early, especially given Jones' broken leg. Taylor holds a high 6.6% touchdown rate, is second in yards per carry among qualified running backs and rocks a 7.1% explosive run rate.

Longshot: (Jaguars) Trevor Lawrence +2000
Trevor has been wildly inconsistent as a thrower this season, but his legs have been a constant. He has 5+ rushing attempts in 4 of his last 5 games. He likely missed last game because it was uncompetitive. He has 5 rushing touchdowns on the season and multiple ruhsing touchdowns in two games. In a game that should be competitive, we should see Lawrence get back to using his legs.

 Parlay #1 (Colts): +509
Daniel Jones under 5.5 Rushing Yards
Tyler Warren 60+ Receiving Yards
Jonathan Taylor over 2.5 Receptions

Parlay #2 (Jaguars): +427
Trevor Lawrence 20+ Rushing Yards
Brenton Strange 40+ Receiving Yards
Jakobi Meyers 40+ Receiving Yards

QB Cam Ward
Ward enters this contest with a season line of 246 completions on 412 attempts (59.7%) for 2,351 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, plus 123 rushing yards and a score. In his last outing, he was held to 141 yards on 24-of-38 passing with no touchdowns. The advanced metrics are brutal, including 5.91 yards per attempt and a 75.2 passer rating. Ward holds a 10.0% sack rate and faces a Cleveland defense that ranks third in pressure rate (41.1%) and first in sack rate (11.4%). Furthermore, Ward ranks 33rd in passing grade against single-high coverages, which Cleveland utilizes at the highest rate in the NFL (35.9% of Cover 1). With Cleveland converting nearly 30% of their pressures into sacks, Ward is likely in for a long afternoon. Given the matchup and potential snoozer of a game, the best play is to fade his passing completions.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 17.5 Passing Completions (-120)

RB Tony Pollard
Pollard has rushed 150 times for 582 yards (3.88 yards per carry) and 2 touchdowns this season, adding 27 catches for 171 yards. Last week, he managed 60 yards on 10 carries. While his volume remains steady (he played 26 snaps to Tyjae Spears' 25 last week) the matchup is tough. Cleveland ranks first in run defense grade, allowing the third-lowest yards per carry to backs (3.7) and a league-low 0.49 yards before contact per rush. Pollard ranks just 35th in rushing grading and splits touches evenly with Spears. Against such a stout front, there is little upside to his yardage total, making his rushing yards a fade.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

RB Tyjae Spears
Spears continues to operate as the receiving complement, posting 39 carries for 158 yards (4.05 YPC) and 28 catches for 173 yards on the season. Last week, he saw 6 targets (catching 6 for 25 yards) but only had 2 carries for -1 yard. Advanced splits show he is significantly better running against zone (47.4% success rate) than man/gap schemes (21.1%), but his role is clearly defined more as the pass-catcher while Pollard handles the interior work. With the backfield last week having more clearly defined roles, I’ll fade him as a rusher.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 6.5 Carries (-110)

WR Elic Ayomanor
With Calvin Ridley out for the season, Ayomanor is the top outside option, but production hasn’t been there. He has caught 29 of 61 targets (47.5%) for 339 yards and 2 touchdowns, but caught just 1 pass for 5 yards last week. He lines up out wide 82.2% of the time. While Cleveland allows a high catch rate (63.7%, 13th highest), Ayomanor and Ward have struggled to find chemistry, evidenced by his 69.0 passer rating when targeted. Although he ranks 18th in target rate when the defense generates pressure (The Browns rank 4th in pressure rate), the lack of connection makes him risky. I’ll take his under on receptions.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 2.5 Receptions (-120)

WR Chimere Dike
Dike operates primarily from the slot (68.5%) and has been efficient, catching 29 of 47 targets for 260 yards. Last week, he had just 1 catch for 8 yards. However, the matchup favors his skill set. Dike is targeted on 25.6% of his routes against man coverage, averaging 2.0 yards per route run (compared to 0.77 against zone). Since Cleveland plays man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league (39.4%), Dike could see an increase in opportunities. Given his explosiveness and the favorable coverage scheme, backing Dike’s receiving props is a solid angle on a low line.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo

Okonkwo has caught 39 of 51 targets (76.4%) for 406 yards. Last week he caught 4 passes for 29 yards. He splits alignments between inline (38.8%) and slot (46.8%) and averages 10.4 yards per reception. CLE is allowing the 10th fewest targets (6.92), 8th fewest receptions (4.75) and 14th fewest receiving yards (49.6) to tight ends per game, but they have allowed a 6% touchdown rate (11th highest). As an outlet option for a pressured quarterback, backing his receptions at plus money is a viable strategy.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (+115)

QB Shedeur Sanders

Shedeur Sanders has had a mixed start to his NFL career. He managed the game well in his debut win, but the offense stalled in Week 13, scoring only 8 points against San Francisco. Sanders completed 16 of 25 passes for 149 yards (6.0 YPA) and 1 TD, adding a short scramble for 6 yards. Cleveland publicly confirmed he will remain the starter, showing confidence in his pocket poise and accuracy even with limited scoring output. The matchup is far more forgiving this week. Tennessee allows the 10th-most passing yards per game (236.0) and the 13th-most passing TDs (1.6). They’ve been hit repeatedly through the air, giving up multiple passing touchdowns in 5 of their last 6 games. Their defense also plays heavy zone (72.8%), and Sanders profiles as a rhythm thrower who handles zone spacing better than tight, aggressive man coverage. If the Browns’ offensive line can hold up against Tennessee’s front, Sanders should be able to push the ball to the perimeter and take advantage of how often the Titans allow receivers to separate late in routes.

Suggested Play:
'O' 159.5 Passing Yards (-120)

RB Quinshon Judkins

Quinshon Judkins put together one of his best rushing performances of the year last week, finishing with 23 carries for 91 yards and adding 3 receptions for 18 yards. His usage solidified again, with a 62% snap share, 74% of the team’s carries, and 27% of routes. He has now posted 16+ carries in four straight games, finding stability after a mid-season slump. The Titans are an interesting matchup — they allow the 10th-most rushing yards per game (103.4) and rank 5th-worst in adjusted yards before contact (2.46), which normally benefits power runners like Judkins. But they clamp down on RB receiving production, giving up the second-fewest receiving yards per game (21.0) to backs. Cleveland is likely to test Tennessee’s front early because Stefanski’s offense always prefers to establish physicality. The major challenge: no individual RB has cleared 13.1 total points of production against the Titans in four straight games, showing how well they finish plays despite giving up chunk runs. Judkins has the workload to beat the projection, but efficiency may swing based on whether the Browns can generate push at the line.

Suggested Play:
'O' 15.5 Yard Longest Rush (-120)

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy’s tough season continued in Week 13, posting 3 catches for 26 yards on 4 targets while dealing with severe wind. He has failed to hit 51 yards in 10 of his last 11 games, and his target share has fluctuated because the Browns’ offense has rotated personnel heavily. This matchup, however, brings an opportunity for a stabilizing performance. Tennessee allows the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter WRs (116.4) and the second-highest yards per route run (2.39) to outside receivers, which is the area Jeudy operates. Jeudy has shown the ability to separate against zone and soft man, and Tennessee’s secondary struggles to maintain vertical leverage — Jakobi Meyers just posted 6/90/1 in this matchup last week. If Sanders leans on timing and intermediate throws, Jeudy becomes the most logical chain-moving option. His efficiency should improve dramatically relative to the 49ers’ press-heavy scheme he faced last week.

Suggested Play:
'O' 31.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Harold Fannin

Harold Fannin continues to carve out a defined role in this offense. He posted 3 catches for 43 yards and a TD on 5 targets in Week 13 while playing 92% of snaps, his highest usage of the season. He has now reached 3+ catches in seven of his last eight games, showing consistency that Cleveland has lacked elsewhere. Tennessee is not an easy matchup for tight ends — they allow the 10th-fewest receiving yards (46.7) and the 13th-fewest receptions (5.0) — but they have occasionally broken down in red-zone coverage. Last week Brenton Strange hit them for 3/45/1, exploiting the Titans’ tendency to lose tight ends on seam releases. Fannin’s route participation has risen sharply, and Sanders has already shown comfort targeting him in play-action, especially in compressed formations. Even if volume is modest, efficiency can make up for it, and Fannin remains a key option inside the 20.

Suggested Play:
'O' 3.5 Receptions (-140)

Another game that nobody will watch! Ward vs Sanders. I lean the better defense here

Best Bet: Browns -2.5 -170
Lean: Under 33.5 -120
Score Prediction Titans 10 Browns 13

Anytime TD

Best Pick: (Browns) Quinshon Judkins -130

Quinshon Judkins enters this matchup with one of the clearest touchdown paths on the Browns’ roster. His usage remains extremely stable — 74% of the team’s carries, 62% snap share, and the vast majority of early-down and red-zone work. Cleveland has shifted toward a more run-centric approach with Sanders at quarterback, and Judkins is the player who benefits the most from that structure. He has recorded 16+ carries in four straight games, and his physical running style fits exactly what Kevin Stefanski wants to establish when the offense is in scoring range. The Titans quietly allow large chunks on the ground despite preventing big games in the box score. They rank 5th-worst in adjusted yards before contact allowed (2.46), meaning backs often get downhill untouched, but they stiffen closer to the goal line and limit scoring in open-field situations. Still, they have shown repeated issues with power-run concepts at the line of scrimmage, and their linebackers have been late filling backside gaps — a problem that opens up cutback lanes for Judkins, who thrives in those patterns. Cleveland also lacks a red-zone passing identity right now, making the run game their most reliable way to finish drives. Judkins already handled high-leverage touches last week and has shown he can handle volume when the team gets close. Given his workload and the way Tennessee’s defense funnels opportunities toward RBs in tight areas, Judkins carries strong anytime TD equity.

Longshot: (Titans) Gunnar Helm +600
Helm continues to find the field and when he does, he's shown good chemistry with Ward. After a pair of redzone targets last week, he is now second on the Titans in redzone targets with 6. CLE has allowed 5 touchdowns to tight ends this season and while Chig is technically the TE1 in this offense, he's not used as much in the redzone. Chig is a really poor run blocker, so it makes sense to use Helm close to the goal line. The Titans may not even score in this game so if you are looking to back a touchdown, make it a longshot.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick (Browns) Harold Fannin Jr. +1075

The Titans have been inconsistent against tight ends. While they give up the 10th-fewest receiving yards (46.7) overall, they’ve repeatedly blown coverage in the red zone or on seam routes, allowing 3/45/1 to Brenton Strange last week. Tennessee’s safeties tend to overcommit to run fits on early downs, which opens a window for tight ends to sneak behind the second level. Fannin’s usage — particularly his alignment in condensed splits and motion — puts him right in the middle of those design advantages. If the Browns reach scoring range early, Fannin’s size, route timing, and increasing trust from Sanders position him as the most likely target on the first designed pass into the end zone. His usage and style match perfectly with how Cleveland scripts opening drives against zone-heavy defenses.

Best Pick (Titans) No TEN Titans Touchdown Scorer +300
You can find this on DraftKings under "1st TEN Titans TD Scorer". I would not at all be surprised to see TEN walk away with 6 points in this game. CLE is a truly elite defensive unit and TEN is the worst offense in the league. Ward and TEN's offensive line has really struggled this season against pressure. Ward holds a 10.0% sack rate and faces a Cleveland defense that ranks third in pressure rate (41.1%) and first in sack rate (11.4%). 55.9% of Tennessee's sets of downs reach third down, the highest rate in the league, and they are averaging a league-low 1.19 points per drive. We also get a CLE offense that is at the bottom in most offensive categories. I expect this game to be a low scoring slog with CLE's defense being too much for TEN to break out of it's season-long slump.

 Parlay #1 (Browns) +405

Shedeur Sanders 'O' 159.5 Pass Yards

Quinshon Judkins 'O' 15.5 Yard Longest Rush

Quinshon Judkins ATD

Parlay #2 (Titans) +716
Ten Team Total under 10.5
Gunnar Helm over 24.5 Receiving Yards
Elic Ayomanor under 2.5 Receptions

QB Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels makes his return after an ugly-looking elbow injury on Sunday Night Football in Week 9 against the Seattle Seahawks. However, after logging a full practice on Friday, he was cleared for contact and will start for the Commanders against the Vikings. Minnesota is a tough pass defence to get much production against, allowing the 3rd fewest completions (17.8) and pass attempts (27.7), the 5th fewest passing yards (196.3), and the 7th fewest passing TDs (1.2) per game to opposing QBs. The Vikings run the 12th most zone coverage (75.3%) and the 2nd most Cover 2 (25%) in the NFL. Against zone coverage, Daniels has faced 150 dropbacks and sits 12th in completion percentage (71.6%), 15th in yards per attempt (7.46), and his 91.3 QBR sits in the middle of the pack among NFL starting QBs. Against Cover 2, Daniels has faced just 30 dropbacks, but has the 7th highest completion percentage (79.2%), and the 4th highest QBR (112.8), but his 7.75 yards per attempt sits in the middle of the pack. Where Daniels might have an advantage is with his legs. Among QBs with at least 20 rush attempts, Daniels sits 18th in yards per carry, and averages the most rushing yards (45.3) per game. With the Vikings being difficult to beat through the air, and with his elbow injury – albeit his non-throwing arm – we could see Daniels use his legs to produce against the Vikings. Minnesota allows the 15th fewest rushing yards (17.1) per game to opposing QBs. Daniels has logged 39+ rushing yards in three of his last four games, averaging 44.3 rushing yards per game.

Suggested pick:

Jayden Daniels o38.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Chris Rodriguez

In terms of on-the-ground workload, Chris Rodriguez controlled most of the touches, rushing 11 times, to Jeremy McNichols' six and JCM's four. So, on the ground, it seems like Rodriguez has won the starting job...for now. This week, he'll get a favourable matchup against the Vikings defence that allows the most rush attempts (27.4) and the 7th most rushing yards (107.2). Minnesota runs the 2nd most zone concept (53.7%) run defence in the league, allowing a 4.22 yards per carry. They run man/gap at a much lower rate (35.1%), and allow an impressive 3.37 yards per carry (2nd lowest in the league) in that coverage. But whatever they throw at Rodriguez, it won't matter. He averages a respectable 4.00 yards per carry against the zone concept and 4.95 yards per carry against man/gap. Rodriguez doesn't add much to an offence through the air. But it wouldn't be a good matchup even if he did, as they allow the 4th fewest receptions (3.5) and the 2nd fewest receiving yards (20.9) per game to opposing RBs. With their previously ailing QB returning, and in this type of matchup, we wouldn't be surprised to see Rodriguez get a heavier workload than he's had all season. Rodriguez has logged 11+ rush attempts in three of the past four weeks, averaging 11 per game.

Suggested Pick:

Chris Rodriguez o10.5 Rush Attempts (-115)

WR Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel had a decent game with long-time number one WR Terry McLaurin returning; however, he very much played second fiddle. Deebo caught five of his seven targets for 64 receiving yards, including the massive catch toward the end of overtime. This week, he'll get a tough matchup against the Vikings' pass defence, which allows the fewest receptions (8.7) and the 5th fewest receiving yards (121.3) per game to opposing WRs. But Samuel does get a boost in terms of the Vikings' favourite coverages, as he has caught 42 of his 50 targets for 389 receiving yards, earning the highest target share (23%) on the Commanders. Against their most preferred coverage, Cover 2, Deebo has caught eight of his 10 targets for 81 receiving yards with a 20.8% target share. Against zone overall, Deebo has been his best. He has a higher catch rate (82.5%), yards per route run (1.63), but a slightly lower yards per reception (8.7) in zone compared to man. Deebo has run 60.4% of his routes from the slot, which the Vikings target at the 8th lowest rate, allowing the 9th lowest yards per reception (9.87), but the 13th highest catch rate (70.3%). However, after seeing McLaurin return to this offences top option, and with Daniels returning, where we really haven't seen much of how the trio operate together, piled onto the difficult matchup against this Vikings defence, we're probably going to pass on Deebo this week.

Suggested pick:

Pass

WR Terry McLaurin

Boy, did Terry McLaurin make his return felt in a big way. Despite playing just 49.4% of the snaps, McLaurin still garnered 14 targets, turning that into seven receptions for 96 receiving yards, catching the TD in overtime. And that was a tough matchup against Pat Surtain. He'll have the same troubles this week against this tough Vikings defence. Against zone coverage, McLaurin has caught 16 of his 20 targets for 253 receiving yards on 86 routes, earning a 17.9% target share. Against Cover 2, McLaurin has been perfect on his limited work, hauling in all three of his targets for 38 receiving yards, but has just a 9.1% target share. McLaurin has been far better against zone coverage than man this season, having a higher catch rate (76.5%), yards per reception (15.4) and yards per route run (2.86). McLaurin has lined up outwide on 85.9% of his snaps. The Vikings are targeted to perimeter receivers at the lowest rate in the NFL, but when they do, they allow the 9th highest catch rate (64.5%) and the 2nd highest yards per reception (15.62). After seeing what he was able to do on limited snaps last week, and getting the boost of Daniels back in this week, we like another big game from Scary Terry.

Suggested pick:

Terry McLaurin 50+ Receiving Yards (-150)

TE Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz balled out last week. He caught 10 of his 14 targets for 106 receiving yards. That was, by far, his highest targets, receptions, and receiving yards on the season. This week, he gets a Vikings defence that allows the 12th most receptions (5.7) and the 15th most receiving yards (54) per game to opposing TEs. Against zone coverage, Ertz has caught 36 of his 46 targets for 403 receiving yards with a 19.8% target share. Against Cover 2, Ertz has logged 10 receptions on 14 targets for 126 receiving yards, leading the team with a 27.5% target share. Ertz sees his numbers increase in zone coverage, having a higher catch rate (76.7%), yards per reception (11.6), and yards per route run (1.98) compared to man. Like Deebo, Ertz has spent most of his time in the slot this season, running 58.9% of his snaps from that alignment. Typically, you'd figure McLaurin's return would eat into the workloads of others. However, that opened up more of the field for Ertz to excel, which he did last week. I'm expecting more of that this week.

Suggested pick:

Zach Ertz 4+ Receptions (-160)

QB JJ McCarthy

JJ McCarthy makes his return for the Minnesota Vikings, and I think it's a rare instance where both the Vikings and the Commanders are happy to see this. Max Brosmer wasn't it last week, so McCarthy provides Minnesota a boost. But he hasn't been necessarily good either, which is why the Commanders are excited to face him. Washington is allowing the 16th fewest completions (21), the 13th fewest pass attempts (31.1), but the 2nd most passing yards (269.1) and the 4th most passing TDs (1.9) per game to opposing QBs. The Commanders run the 13th most man coverage (27.3%), and the 10th most Cover 1 (22.1%). Man coverage hasn't treated McCarthy kindly, as he has the lowest completion percentage (55.2%), and QBR (53.5), and the 2nd fewest passing yards per game (92.5) and yards per attempt (5.3) of the top 32 QBs this season. Those are some ugly numbers. Could McCarthy take advantage of a team that allows plenty of deep ball completions? Maybe. But I'm not counting on it with just a 13.8% deep throw completion percentage on the season.

Suggested pick:

JJ McCarthy u16.5 Passing Completions (-115)

RB Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones didn't have the biggest game last week, rushing for just three yards on six attempts, but an early shoulder injury limited him to just 38% of the snaps. However, Jones was utilized early in the passing game, catching four quick targets for 22 receiving yards before the injury. This week might be a bit easier for Jones on the ground, as the Commanders allow the 5th most rush attempts (24.3), and the 6th most rushing yards (108.9). Washington runs slightly more zone concept (45.1%) than man/gap (39.2%) rush defence. Which is to their benefit, as they average 4.17 yards per carry when in zone concept and 5.15 against man/gap – the sixth highest average in the NFL. Despite Jones departing with injury, he still out-snapped Jordan Mason by 8%. Jones averages 3.69 yards per carry against zone, and an even better 4.66 yards per carry against man/gap. Through the air is another strong suit of Jones' game, as we covered last week. The Commanders allow the 9th fewest receptions (3.9) and the 5th most receiving yards (39.2) per game to opposing RBs. We like Jones to be heavily involved, whether it be on the ground or through the air.

Suggested Pick:

Aaron Jones o69.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Justin Jefferson

Don't look, Vikings fans. But Jefferson finished last week with more targets (6) than receiving yards (4) — ugly game for the star WR. However, we'll chalk that up to a Brosmer problem and now a Jettas issue. And while McCarthy hasn't been much better, he's still an upgrade for Jefferson. The Commanders allow the 13th most receptions (11.9) and the 4th most receiving yards (167.2) per game to opposing WRs. Against man coverage, Jefferson has caught 16 of his 31 targets for 183 receiving yards, earning a team-high 30.4% target share. Against Cover 1, Jefferson has caught 12 of his 24 targets for 129 receiving yards, earning another team-high 32% target share. With his QB struggling against man coverage, that has followed Jefferson, as he sees his catch rate (44.8%), yards per reception (11.5) and yards per route run (1.34) all dip when in man coverage compared to zone. Jefferson lines up outside on 73.2% of his snaps. The Commanders are targeted at the 2nd lowest rate, but allow the 4th highest catch rate (66.7%) and 3rd highest yards per reception (14.68) when targeted outwide. It's just been so bad for Jefferson these past few weeks. It's got to eventually turn around right? I think they pepper Jefferson with targets to get him back in a groove.

Suggested pick:

Justin Jefferson o5.5 Receptions (-105)

WR Jordan Addison

While it didn't really workout for Jefferson, Jordan Addison turned in a decent outing all things considered, catching five of his 10 targets for 36 receiving yards. Against man coverage, Addison has been much better this season, seeing his catch rate (58.3%), yards per reception (12.9) and yards per route run (1.13) all increase in man coverage compared to zone. Against man coverage, Addison has caught eight of 13 targets for 95 receiving yards with a 16.9% target share. Against Cover 1, Addison has six receptions on nine targets for 85 receiving yards on a 16.4% target share. Like Jefferson, Addison lines up out wide on 77.1% of his snaps. In McCarthy's starts this season, Addison leads the main receivers in aDoT (17.7). He's been McCarthy's favourite deep ball target, whether they connect on it or not. And the deep ball is an area in which you can attack this Commanders defence.

Suggested pick:

Jordan Addison o18.5 Longest Reception (-110)

TE TJ Hockenson

TJ Hockenson is coming off his best week of the season, catching all six of his targets for 59 receiving yards. Is that just a byproduct of a undrafted rookie QB targeting the easy completion in the middle of the field? Probably? Because he really hasn't been connecting well with McCarthy. This week, he'll get the Commanders defence who allow the 14th fewest receptions (5.2) and the 9th most receiving yards (62.8) per game to opposing TEs. Against man coverage, Hockenson has caught six of his eight targets for 35 receiving yards, but has a miniscule 7.8% target share. Against Cover 1, it's a bit of the same, as he's caught five receptions on six targets for 31 receiving yards. Hockenson sees his yards per reception (5.2) and yards per route run (0.34) massively decline compared to his zone splits, but has a higher catch rate (85.7%). Hockenson runs a near even split between slot and inline, but the slight edge goes to the inline alignment, lining up on 42.9% of his routes from that position. Against inline receivers, the Commanders are targeted at the 3rd highest rate, allow a 75% catch rate and the 3rd highest yards per reception (11.81). However, that connection between him and McCarthy has yet to develop, and as a result, the good matchup might not be enough for Hockenson this week.

Suggested pick:

TJ Hockenson u25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Both teams are getting their young starting QBs back. However, one is significantly better than the other, so we're going to be backing the road team in this contest. In terms of the over/under, how can you really support either offence? Sure, you have more trust in Washington with getting Daniels back, but let's not forget that this offence have just two games under their belt when all of Daniels, McLaurin, Samuel and Ertz have played together. It might take some time to get in a groove, especially against a tricky Brian Flores defence. And, let's be real, you don't trust McCarthy to put up points in this either.

Best Bet: Commanders ML
Lean: Under 44.5 -115
Score Prediction: Commanders 20 Vikings 13

Anytime TD

Best Pick: (Commanders): Chris Rodriguez Anytime TD (+155)

Chris Rodriguez found the end zone for us, and we're going right back to him this week in an even better matchup with how much volume the Vikings allow on the ground. Minnesota is averaging 0.8 rushing TDs per game to opposing RBs this season, and has allowed a rushing TD in every game since Week 5.

Best Pick: (Vikings): Justin Jefferson (+155)

It's ugly to put your trust into McCarthy to find Jefferson in the end zone, but with our theory that Jefferson is going to get fed the ball, he should find opportunities to find the end zone. He has not scored in four straight games, so the star WR is dying to get into the end zone. The Commanders are allowing the 6th most receiving TDs (1.2) per game to opposing WRs.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Commanders) Chris Rodriguez First TD (+850)

We're KICKING ourselves for not doubling up on Rodriguez First TD last week, as after two Broncos FGs, Rodriguez ran one in with less than three minutes in the half. Let's see if he can do it in back-to-back weeks.

Parlay 1: (Commanders) +275 odds on bet365

Jayden Daniels 30+ Rushing Yards

Chris Rodriguez 10+ Rush Attempts

Terry McLaurin 50+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: (Vikings) +300 odds on bet365

Aaron Jones 75+ Rushing & Receiving Yards

Justin Jefferson 6+ Receptions

Parlay 3: (Commanders/Vikings Longshot) +1150 odds on bet365

Jayden Daniels 40+ Rushing Yards

Chris Rodriguez 10+ Rush Attempts

Aaron Jones 75+ Rushing & Receiving Yards

Justin Jefferson 6+ Receptions

QB Sam Darnold
Darnold has 2,913 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions on the season. He owns a 103.1 passer rating, 9.5 aDOT and averages 242.8 yards per game. Last week was quiet (128 passing yards with no passing touchdowns), but this matchup sets up perfectly for a bounce back. Atlanta runs zone coverage at the 9th highest rate (77.1%) - mostly Cover 3. Atlanta also plays single-high coverage at the 2nd highest rate and blitzes at the 2nd highest rate. Darnold grades out 3rd best against single-high and 7th best against the blitz, averaging a league-high 10.0 yards per attempt when blitzed. This schematic advantage points toward a big day through the air; take his passing yards over.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 230.5 Passing Yards (-110)
‘O’ 18.5 Passing Completions (-105)

RB Kenneth Walker III
Walker has 733 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns on 160 carries. Last week he managed 56 yards on 13 carries. About 36% of his runs are outside zone, his most effective play type. On those runs, Walker is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. However, Atlanta excels at stopping this run concept, allowing the 10th lowest yards per carry and 7th lowest success rate on outside zone runs. With a difficult matchup, expect Seattle to throw more, making Walker’s rushing yards a fade. He’s clearly the better runner, but Charbonnet is not going away.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

RB Zach Charbonnet
Charbonnet has 125 carries for 437 yards and 8 touchdowns, largely serving as the goal-line back. Last week he had 52 yards and a score, but much of that came in garbage time when the game was completely out of hand. His efficiency remains low, averaging just 3.50 yards per carry, a 47.2% success rate and a 3.2% explosive run rate. Unless you want to bet on him falling into the endzone, he offers little value. It’s touchdown or fade.

Suggested Picks
PASS

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
JSN is having a monster season with 82 catches for 1,336 yards. Last week was a rare dud (2 catches, 23 yards). Despite the down game, he still owns a ridiculous 45.6% team yardage share. He should rebound immediately against Atlanta, who plays single-high coverage 64% of the time (2nd highest) and Cover 3 49% of the time. JSN dominates these looks, owning a 36.8% first-read share against single-high and averaging 3.73 yards per route. Atlanta has recently given up huge games to primary receivers of late: Tetairoa McMillan (8 catches for 130 yards and 2 TD’s), Chris Olave (9-70-0), and Adonai Mitchell (8-102-1). This looks like a nice bounce back spot for JSN. If we like Darnold’s passing yards, you know most of them will likely come with Smith-Njigba.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 90.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Rashid Shaheed
Shaheed has been a non-factor since joining Seattle, catching just 4 passes on 8 targets total. Last week he had 1 catch for 7 yards along with a single carry. On the season he owns a 17.7% target rate, 19.6% team yardage share, 11.17 YPR, 3.29 YAC/R, 20.6% 1st read rate and 77.4 passer rating when targeted with the Saints and Seahawks. Until he shows any consistent involvement in the offense or chemistry with Darnold, he is a full pass. He is still on the field plenty, but clearly Darnold is not looking his way, at least yet.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE A.J. Barner
Barner has been efficient, catching 37 of 44 targets (84.1%) for 359 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is tied with JSN for the team leader in redzone targets (11). He has also been used for the tush push. He owns 9.7 yards per reception, 4.8 yards after the catch per reception and a 5.5 aDOT. Last week he caught 4 passes for 35 yards in a game where they didn’t have to press. While Atlanta allows the 2nd fewest targets and receptions to tight ends, it feels like the betting lines reflect that. As Darnold faces the blitz, Barner could serve as the hot read or outlet option. At plsu money I’ll lean towards his overs, but I’m not rushing to take them.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (+125) - LEAN

QB Kirk Cousins

Last week was the shortest writeup in CTB Game Guide history, and it hit with flying colors. This week, there is simply no value on either side of the line with regard to Kirk Cousins. He completed 21 of 33 passes last week for 234 yards and a TD against a lowly NY Jets defense. This Sunday, he will face Seattle, who is allowing a league-low 6.1 YPPA and only a 3.6% TD rate. The Seahawks run the 6th highest rate of zone coverage (78.1%), and Cousins is averaging just 6.53 YPA and a .6% CPOE on 74 dropbacks against zone this season. Last year, he threw for 232 yards, a TD and 2 INTs last year. Value can usually be found somewhere, but there's just not much here on either side of these lines. Kirk Cousins is a clear pass against Seattle for week 14.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

RB Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson had a dominant performance last Sunday against the Jets, where he rushed for 142 yards on 23 carries and a TD, while catching 5 of 7 targets for 51 yards. It marked the 3rd straight game that Robinson has surpassed the 100+ yard threshold. Now that we've pumped Bijan up, he's most likely going to get brought back down to earth this Sunday. The Seahawks have been a brick wall to run against all year, giving up a league-low 3.5 YPC, to go with the 3rd fewest rushing YPG (66.3) allowed to opposing RBs. Another reason you should be staying away from Robinson's running props this week is because 66.2% of his rush attempts come on outside zone runs. Seattle allows only 3.2 YPC on such runs (3rd fewest). For this week, Bijan will need to use his superior work out of the backfield as a pass-catching receiver. He's getting 18.6% of the Falcons targets, which is the second most targets for a RB on any team in the NFL with the exception of Christian McCaffrey (SF). He's facing a Seattle defense that has been vulnerable to pass-catching tailbacks all season long. The Seahawks are surrendering the 4th most receiving YPG (39.7) and the 4th most receptions per game (5.7) to opposing RBs. There's even added icing on the cake here, because 24.3% of the receptions allowed by Seattle have come via the running back position (4th most in NFL). This is the best play on the board for a Falcons offense led by Kirk Cousins, who is expected to lean heavily on Bijan in week 14.

Suggested Bet:

Bijan Robinson o4.5 Receptions (-156)

Bijan Robinson 6+ ALT Receptions (+141)

Bijan Robinson 7+ ALT Receptions (+264)

WR Darnell Mooney

Atlanta's passing game is in shambles right now, and they just got hit with the news that Drake has been ruled out for Sunday's game with Seattle. This should not come as a huge surprise, but the fact that London has yet to step onto the practice since sustaining a PCL injury is rather concerning going forward. This means we have to suffer through another week of Darnell Mooney, who I gave up on a long time ago. Despite the absence of Drake London, Mooney has mustered just 5 receptions on 8 targets over the past two weeks. I realize he had 74 yards receiving in week 12, but we simply cannot count on a 50+ yard reception every week, and we definitely can't rely on it this week against a Seahawks pass defense who allows the 2nd fewest passing YPG (115.0) to opposing WRs. Nobody expected Darnell Mooney to set the world on fire this season, but posing only one reception in four separate weeks is completely unacceptable. He has one of the worst catch rates among starting wide receivers this year, hauling in a gaudy 21 of 50 targets (42.0%). Basically, Mooney gets one or two opportunities for a big play every game and that's just about it. Seattle boasts arguably the pass defense in the league, but it honestly wouldn't matter who Mooney was going up against in week 14. He's just not reliable, and he's not very good. The Falcons WR has collected 3 receptions in just 10 games. Even with the juice, these are odds I'm willing to play almost every week, especially against a team like the Seahawks.

Suggested Bet:

Darnell Mooney u3.5 Receptions (-156)

WR David Sills

In two games as the WR2 for Atlanta, David Sills has totaled just 4 receptions for only 31 total yards. He's been on the field for just over 80% of the team's snaps, but it hasn't equated to much production. With guys like Deven Thompkins and Dylan Drummond, not to mention Tyler Allgeier stealing targets, there's just no volume or consistency for David Sills, and he's beyond playing him for a TD score, he's not worth the risk of betting either side of the line on.

Suggested Bet:

David Sills u35.5 Rec Yards (-109)

WR Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts had 7 catches for a season-high 82 yards in week 13 against the NY Jets, including a career-high 60 YAC. There's very little to get excited about with the current makeup of Atlanta's offense, however Kyle Pitts is one of just a couple of exceptions. In three starts with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Pitts has seen target shares of 30.0%, 25.0% and 25.8%. The other common denominator here is that Drake London has not played in any of these games. The Falcons top WR will be out again this Sunday, and that should equal another high volume game for Pitts. There aren't many weaknesses attached with Seattle's defense, but one area they have performed poorly in this year is defending TEs. The Seahawks are allowing the 4th most receiving YPG (71.3) and 2nd most receptions per game (6.9) to opposing tight ends. This is another great spot for Pitts here to put up some solid numbers.

Suggested Bet:

Kyle Pitts 50+ Rec Yards (-140)

Seattle won't let up in this game as Darnold is going for MVP and passing TD record. Falcons lose this one by 10+

Best Bet: Seahawks -5.5 -135
Lean: SEA Over 24.5 Pts -130
Score Prediction Seattle 27 Falcons 14

Anytime TD

Best Bet (Falcons): Tyler Allgeier +210

Tyler Allgeier found the end zone for the 4th time in four games last Sunday. Allgeier has had nearly double the workload in comparison to fellow teammate Bijan Robinson (9 carries) at the goal line for Atlanta. His 16 goal line carries is the 9th most among RBs this season.He's dominated the goal line for Atlanta this season, seeing 16 carries to just 9 for fellow teammate Bijan Robinson. Allgeiers 16 carries is 9th most. He hovers around 8-10 touches per week, but he makes the most of it. Expect the Falcons RB to pick up where he left off against Seattle on Sunday. They have been strong against the run all year, but the Seahawks success rate on the ground in goal-to-go situations goes from from 67.2% (2nd best in NFL) down to 52.2% (15th lowest). Even against this SEA defense, getting +210 odds for a Tyler Allgeier Anytime TD is too much value to pass up on.

Best Bet (Seahawks): Zach Charbonnet +110

Charb has been losing work to Walker, but continues to work close to the goal line. He has touchdowns in 3 of his last 4 games and despite missing some time, he has out-carried Walker in the redzone this season 35 to 30. He really hasn't been an effective runner outside of the goal line, but he does compliment Walker well as a power back. If they find themselves a nice lead against the Cousins-led Falcons, we could get a little more of a run-heavy game script. They like to work Walker in between the 20's as the more explosive runner while using Charbonnet inside the redzone. I don't see that changing.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick (Seahawks): Jaxon Smith-Njigba +650

JSN had his first real quiet outing of the season last week - 2 catches for 23 yards. Now, they didn't need him, but he strikes me as the type that will want to bounce back in a big way. It's the first game JSN has been held under 70 yards all season and only second under 90 yards. The Falcons are second in the rate of single-high coverages (64%) and are second in the rate of Cover 3 (49%). Smith-Njigba has a 36.8% first-read target share against single-high coverages and 3.73 yards per route. Against Cover 3, JSN has made up 33% of the Seattle targets for 3.24 yards per route run. The matchup should be better for JSN as long as the pressure isn't too much for Darnold to handle. I think we'll get a long score to show the world JSN is back.

Parlay #1 (Falcons) +370

Bijan Robinson 6+ Receptions

Kyle Pitts 60+ Rec Yards

Parlay #2 (Seahawks) +546
Sam Darnold 250+ Passing Yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ Receiving Yards
Zach Charbonnet TD

QB Joe Burrow

Burrow returned on Thanksgiving last week, throwing for 261 passing yards and 2 touchdowns against the Ravens. He averaged just 5.67 YPA and had a 52.2% completion rate. He showed some rust but improved as the game progressed. Last season, he averaged 289 passing yards per game on 7.54 YPA and had a 70.6% completion rate. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 4th best in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the fewest passing yards per game (163). Despite blitzing at a bottom 8 frequency, the Bills are still middle of the pack in pressure rate. However, Joey Bosa is expected out with a hamstring injury, one of their top pass rushers. Joe Burrow will also get Tee Higgins back. The Bills force the lowest pass rate over expected due to their strong pass defense but weak run defense. However, I’m not sure if that matters with a team with Joe Burrow and their receiving weapons, who had a 5.8% pass rate over expected in Burrow’s 1st game back. This game has a massive 53.5 point total and the Bengals are 5.5-point underdogs. Expecting a shootout.

Suggested Pick:

Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-114)

RB Chase Brown

In the first 6 weeks of the season, Chase Brown averaged 33.7 rushing yards per game on 2.73 YPC. In the past 6, he’s averaging 83.7 rushing yards per game on 5.84 YPC. After having an 82%+ snap rate in 3 straight games, Perine returned in week 13 and cut into Brown’s workload. Brown was on the field on just 58.8% of offensive snaps.  Brown still ran a route on 52.1% of dropbacks, but that is a large decline from a 71%+ rate in the previous 3 weeks with Perine injured. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 4th worst in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 3rd most rushing yards per game (141). They are also the number 1 run funnel in the NFL. The Bills have been susceptible to explosive runs, allowing the 4th highest rate (6.7%). Brown has a decent 4.4% explosive run rate and it’s accounted for 24.9% of his total yards. This game has a massive 53.5 implied total but the Bengals are 5.5-point underdogs. We’ll see if the Bengals commit to the run, but if Brown gets the volume, I like his chances to produce in a bullish matchup. I wouldn’t touch his receiving lines as Perine will cut into his work.

Suggested Pick:

Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

WR Ja’Marr Chase

Chase caught 7 of 14 targets for 110 receiving yards in the first game with Burrow back on Thanksgiving night. In Chase’s last 6 games, he’s averaging 99.5 receiving yards per game, 2.30 YPRR and he’s been targeted on 33% of his routes. He leads the team in 1st-read rate during this time at an insane 43.4% rate. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 4th best in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game (163). The Bills force the lowest pass rate over expected as they are weak against the run but strong against the pass. With a team led by Joe Burrow and with arguably the top 2 WR tandem in the league, I’m not sure that matters. This game has a 53.5 implied total and the Bengals are 5.5-point underdogs. I expect this passing offense to produce despite the bearish matchup. From a schematic perspective, there’s nothing that stands out for the Bills. Specifically to wide + slot alignment, the Bills allow the 6th fewest receiving yards per game (151) and the 12th fewest YPRR (1.81). 

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (-115)

WR Tee Higgins

Higgins missed last week with a concussion, but he looks likely to return this week against the Bills. In his last 5 fully healthy games, Higgins is averaging 77.2 receiving yards per game, 2.05 YPRR and he’s been targeted on 19% of his routes. During this time, he’s 2nd on the team in 1st-read rate at 23.4%. He’ll face a Bills defense that ranks 4th best in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game (163). The Bills force the lowest pass rate over expected as they are weak against the run but strong against the pass. With a team led by Joe Burrow and with arguably the top 2 WR tandem in the league, I’m not sure that matters. This game has a 53.5 implied total and the Bengals are 5.5-point underdogs. I expect this passing offense to produce despite the bearish matchup. From a schematic perspective, there’s nothing that stands out for the Bills. Specifically to wide alignment (majority of Higgins pre-snap alignment), the Bills allow the 6th fewest receiving yards per game (86) but the 8th most YPRR (2.10).  

Suggested Pick:

Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

TE Mike Gesicki

In the 2 games since his return from injury, Gesicki has run a route on 64.1% and 39.6% of dropbacks. The Bengals continue to be a TE carousel. Sample ran the same amount of routes as Gesicki last week, and Fant ran a route on 29.2% of dropbacks to chip in as well. Gesicki ended last week catching 2 of 4 targets for 19 yards. Sample caught 1 of 2 targets for 14 yards. Hudson actually produced the touchdown on just a 8.3% route participation rate, catching 1 of 2 targets for 14 yards. The Bills allow the fewest receiving yards, fewest receptions and fewest touchdowns to opposing TEs. I would pass on any of these guys once the lines open, especially with Tee Higgins back.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen is averaging 236 passing yards per game, 8.09 YPA and has a completion rate of 69.4%. He’s thrown for 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He’ll face a Bengals defense that ranks 3rd worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the most passing yards per game (257). The Bengals have blitzed at the lowest rate in the NFL this season (19.7%). As a result they are bottom 5 in pressure rate (33.6%). From a schematic perspective, they run single-high at the 9th highest rate (55.3%). When not blitzed, Allen averages 7.78 YPA, a 72% completion rate and a 102.7 QB rating. Against single-high, he averages 8.21 YPA, a 67.7% completion rate and a 96.1 QB rating. Kincaid has practiced in a limited capacity this week. If he’s back, this will provide a boost to this offense. Love this as a get right spot for Josh and the Bills in a bullish matchup back at home.

Suggested Pick:

Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-115)

RB James Cook

James Cook averages 102.3 rushing yards per game on 5.32 YPC. He’s rushed for 8 rushing touchdowns. He’ll face a Bengals defense that ranks 3rd worst in EPA/Rush and allows the 2nd most rushing yards per game (153). Cook runs a balanced mix between zone and man concept. He averages 5.70 YPC and a 60.3% success rate in zone concept. In man concept, he averages 4.92 YPC and a 51.3% success rate. The Bengals allow the most YPC (5.05) and the 3rd highest success rate (52.9%) against zone concept. Against man concept, they allow the 5th most YPC (5.17) and the 10th highest success rate (54%). The Bengals have also allowed a league-high 17 touchdowns to running backs. In the receiving game, Cook has been targeted at least 3 times in 4 consecutive games. He’s had games with 24, 66, 13 and 33 receiving yards during that period. The Bengals allow the 2nd most receiving yards per game to RB. If Kincaid returns, Cook’s role in the receiving game may dissipate.

Suggested Pick:

80+ Rushing Yards x Anytime Touchdown (-110)

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir is averaging 47.4 receiving yards per game, 1.91 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. He leads the team in 1st-read rate at 23.9%. He’ll face a Bengals defense that ranks 3rd worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the most receiving yards per game (257). Shakir lines up from the slot on 71.1% of his routes. The Bengals specifically allow the 4th most receiving yards (85.9) and the 2nd most YPRR (2.29) to the slot. The Bengals have blitzed at the lowest rate in the NFL this season (19.7%). As a result they are bottom 5 in pressure rate (33.6%). From a schematic perspective, they run single-high at the 9th highest rate (55.3%). When Allen is not blitzed, Skahir averages 1.66 YPPRR and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. When Allen is not pressured, Shakir averages 2.59 YPRR and has been targeted on 32% of his routes. Against single-high, Shakir averages 2.35 YPRR and 27% TPRR. This game has a massive 53.5 implied total and the Bills are 5.5-point favorites, expecting a shootout.

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (-102)

6+ Receptions (+194)

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid hasn’t played since week 10, but he’s been practicing at a limited capacity all week so expect him to return. I think he was ultimately held out last week to ensure he was 100%. He averages 56 receiving yards per game, 3.37 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes. The one blemish is that he’s running a route on just 47% of drop backs. He’ll have a dream matchup against a Bengals defense that allows the most receiving yards, receptions and touchdowns to tight ends. The Bengals have blitzed at the lowest rate in the NFL this season (19.7%). As a result they are bottom 5 in pressure rate (33.6%). From a schematic perspective, they run single-high at the 9th highest rate (55.3%). When Allen is not blitzed, Kincaid averages 3.34 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes. When Allen is not pressured, Kincaid averages an insane 4.44 YPRR and 33% TPRR. Against single-high, Kincaid averages 3.49 YPRR and 26% TPRR. This game has a massive 53.5 implied total and the Bills are 5.5-point favorites, expecting a shootout.

Suggested Pick

Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

50+ Receiving Yards (+190)

60+ Receiving Yards (+300)

Anytime Touchdown (+200)

2+ Touchdowns (+2200)

The Bills have not looked good but this bengals defense is AWFUL but at the same time I don't want to fade Joe Burrow who is elite in the cold weather. Burrow also has been dominant as 3+ point underdogs since 2021 covering 13/14 games and actually winning outright in 9/14 64.3%. I think this will be a back and forth game to push the game total over

Best Bet: Over 52.5 -120
Lean: Bengals Over 22.5 Pts -120
Score Prediction Bengals 27 Bills 30

Anytime TD

Dalton Kincaid (+240)

Ja’Marr Chase (-121)

First TD Scorer

Dalton Kincaid (+1600)

Ja’Marr Chase (+800)

Parlay #1 (Bengals) +366

Joe Burrow 250+ Passing Yards
Tee Higgins 60+ Receiving Yards
Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown

Parlay #2 (Bills) +692

Josh Allen Over 231.5 Passing Yards
Dalton Kincaid 50+ Receiving Yards
Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown

Parlay #3 (Longshot) +831

Dalton Kincaid 50+ Receiving Yards
Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown
Tee Higgins 70+ Receiving Yards
Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown

QB Bo Nix

Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos are just addicted to close games. Whether that's against the Super Bowl Champions, or the Washington Commanders last week, they always seem to get the job done at the end. Nix had just second best outing of the season last week, going 29/45 for 321 passing yards, one TD and one INT. He added 16 rushing yards on the ground. This week, he'll get a Raiders defence, who he struggled against in Week 10, throwing for his lowest total of the season (150 passing yards) and throwing two interceptions. The Raiders' defence allows the 15th fewest completions (20.8), the 12th fewest pass attempts (30.9) and the 15th fewest passing yards (233.7) per game to opposing QBs. Even on the ground they limit opposing QBs, allowing the 5th fewest rushing yards (12.6) per game. Las Vegas runs the most zone coverage (84.2%) and the most Cover 3 (46.5%) in the entire NFL. Against zone coverage, Nix has faced the 2nd most dropbacks (361), which has turned into the 2nd lowest completion percentage (62.3%), the 3rd lowest among the 32 starting QBs. His 6.23 yards per attempt and 79.4 QBR both rank bottom five as well. Against Cover 3, Nix has faced the 4th most dropbacks, but the 7th lowest completion percentage (62.5%), 7.2 yards per attempt and the 4th lowest QBR. With how bad the Raiders actually are, they are quite good at limiting opposing QBs. We saw exactly that against the Raiders at home a few weeks ago. And while he's had struggles turning the ball over over the last five games (5 INTs) and throwing two against the Raiders a few weeks ago, we could see the Broncos lean more into the run game.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix u0.5 Interceptions (-135)

RB RJ Havey

As a Broncos fan, I will get out ahead of this: I am disappointed with Harvey on the ground. It just seems like he doesn't have it. It was the perfect matchup for the rookie to establish himself against a weak Commanders run defence, but he turned in a measly 35 yards on 13 carries. However, he found the end zone twice. So, you can't complain about scoring, but just a little more production as a runner would be nice. Is that too much to ask? The Raiders allow the 6th most rush attempts (23.6), and the 16th most rushing yards (95.3) per game to opposing backs. Las Vegas runs an even split of zone concept (41.9%) and man/gap (41.6%). And that similar split is reflected in their production, as they allow 4.04 yards per carry when in zone concept and 4.12 yards per carry when in man/gap. Harvey will hope to see more man/gap than zone concept, as he averages 5.2 yards per carry against man/gap and just 2.13 against zone concept. Harvey has proven to be productive in the pass game, but the Raiders allow the 13th fewest receptions (4.1) and the 8th fewest receiving yards (28.3) per game to opposing RBs. When Harvey faced the Raiders in Week 10, Harvey had nine rushing yards on four attempts, and two receptions on three targets for nine receiving yards. As bad as we want to be early on the Harvey game, cause as a Broncos fan, I have to believe it's coming, but at this point, I'm simply going to have to see it before we bet on it after letting us down last week.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

WR Courtland Sutton

It hasn't been the typical WR1 season for Sutton like we saw last season. He has logged exactly six targets in four of the last five games. So his volume is consistent, but not out of this world. That one game he did not garner six targets was against the Raiders, catching three of his four targets for just 24 receiving yards. This was disappointing, considering the Raiders allow the 3rd most receptions (13), and the 9th most receiving yards (156) per game to opposing WRs. Against zone coverage, Sutton has 35 receptions on 54 targets for 475 receiving yards, and is second on the team with a 16.1% target share against the coverage. Against Cover 3, Sutton has 20 receptions on 31 targets for 248 receiving yards – sharing the team-lead in target share. As a big receiver, Sutton performs better against man coverage than zone, seeing his catch rate (64%), yards per reception (13.5) and yards per route run (1.49) decrease in zone compared to man coverage. Sutton spends most of his time out wide, lining up on 82.1% of his routes on the perimeter. Against out wide alignments, the Raiders are targeted at the 14th highest rate, allow the 2nd highest catch rate and the 11th highest yards per reception (13.68). We don't love Sutton's usage lately, but his receptions line just seems too low. Sutton has logged 4+ receptions in eight of his 12 games this season.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton o3.5 Receptions (-140)

WR Troy Franklin

While Sutton hasn't been great against zone coverage, Troy Franklin has. He sees his catch rate (69.2%), yards per reception (12.8) and yards per route run (1.89) increase in zone compared to man. Against zone coverage, Frankin has 34 receptions on 56 targets for 437 receiving yards – leading the team with a 16.7% target share. Against Cover 3, Franklin has caught 19 of his 31 targets for 317 receiving yards – tied with Sutton with a 20.3% target share. What we are concerned about in this matchup for Franklin is last week's usage. Rookie Pat Bryant played a career-high 68.1% of the snaps, out-snapping Franklin's 55.1%. And it's important to read into that snap share because that was a competitive game the entire way through. And Sean Payton was trusting the rookie Bryant more than Franklin. Let's see if that was just a one-off or if that's what we should come to expect moving forward. We're going to be watching this one from the sidelines.

Suggested pick:

Pass

TE Evan Engram

Evan Engram is coming off his biggest game as a Bronco, catching six of his nine targets for 79 receiving yards. That's more like the joker receiver Payton and the Broncos were hoping to get from Engram right off the rip. He gets the Raiders this week, who allow the 2nd fewest receptions (3.6) and the 3rd fewest receiving yards (38.5) per game to opposing TEs. Against zone coverage, Engram has 33 receptions on 48 targets for 281 receiving yards with a 15.4% target share. Against Cover 3, Engram has 13 receptions on 18 targets for 138 receiving yards but with a smaller 12.9% target share. Engram sees his catch rate (71.1%) increase in zone, but his yards per reception (9.3) and yards per route run (1.5) dip compared to his man coverage splits. Engram runs 44.4$ of his routes inline. The Raiders have been good against inline receivers all season, as they are targeted at the 2nd lowest rate, allowing the 4th lowest catch rate (67.9%), but the 7th highest yards per reception. So volume for Engram may be a problem. But can he build off that long OT run and spark something in this Broncos offence at the TE position that they haven't seen all season in a tough matchup? He didn't do it in Week 10 against them, catching just two of his five targets for 12 receiving yards. But we're banking on Engram and Nix building off that connection, despite the difficult matchup.

Suggested pick:

Evan Engram 30+ Receiving Yards (-140)

QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith enters Week 14 with an up-and-down season and a new offensive coordinator after Chip Kelly's firing. In last week’s loss to the Chargers, Geno played efficiently in structure, completing 18 of 23 passes for 165 yards (7.2 YPA) with 2 TDs and 1 INT, but he again failed to generate explosive plays. He has thrown 1 or fewer touchdowns in 8 of 12 games and leads the league with 14 interceptions. As pressure increases around him, his accuracy tends to dip, especially against man coverage — something that plays directly into Denver’s scheme. The Broncos run the fourth-highest man-coverage rate (38.9%), and Geno’s performance against man this season has been below average: 6.81 YPA, –6% CPOE, and limited rushing production outside of broken plays. Denver’s pass defense has also been one of the most stingy in the league, allowing the fewest passing TDs per game (0.9) and the 11th-fewest passing yards per game (219.7). Geno already struggled badly in this matchup in Week 10, completing 16/26 for 143 yards (5.5 YPA) with 1 INT. With Denver’s ability to disguise pressure and force tight-window throws, Geno may need to lean heavily on quick-hitting concepts and tight ends to stay efficient.

Suggested Play:
'U' 202.5 Passing Yards (-120)

RB Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty remains one of the most heavily utilized backs in the league. Last week he logged a massive 96% snap share and totaled 15 carries for 31 yards plus 6 catches for 30 yards, giving him 18+ touches in 7 of his last 9 games. Volume continues to be his greatest strength, not efficiency — Jeanty ranks 43rd in stuff rate (54.7%), 40th in explosive run rate (1.7%), and 41st in average yards before contact (1.40) out of 45 qualified RBs. Baltimore’s offensive line hasn’t consistently created lanes, and Jeanty often has to fight through contact immediately. The matchup against Denver is one of the toughest he’ll face. The Broncos give up the fewest adjusted yards before contact (1.46), the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game (77.5), and the sixth-fewest receiving yards to RBs (25.4). Jeanty did manage 19/60/1 rushing and 3/3 receiving in the Week 10 meeting, but it took sheer volume and red-zone usage to get there. Efficiency will again be hard to come by — but if Vegas stays competitive early, Jeanty should still push into the 15–20 touch range.

Suggested Play:
'O' 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Tre Tucker

Tre Tucker continues to operate as Las Vegas' primary perimeter receiver, but production has been hard to come by. Last week he caught 3 passes for 20 yards on 3 targets despite running an 89% route share, and he has now failed to exceed 47 yards in six straight games. Tucker has the speed to threaten vertically, but the Raiders have struggled to create separation or hit timing throws downfield consistently with Geno under pressure. Denver’s defensive structure only adds difficulty. The Broncos run man at a high rate (38.9%) and their outside coverage has been excellent. Tucker averages just 1.31 yards per route run and a 0.18 target rate across 112 routes vs man. The Broncos also allow the 10th-fewest receiving yards per game (91.5) to perimeter WRs and the second-fewest yards per route run (1.56). In the Week 10 meeting, Tucker posted 2/28 receiving on 3 targets. Unless Las Vegas completely changes how they scheme him, the matchup again looks restrictive.

Suggested Play:
'U' 37.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers continues to be the most dynamic pass catcher in this offense. Even with low target volume last week (4 targets, 17% share), he produced 4 catches for 63 yards and 2 touchdowns, showing why he’s already a focal point in the red zone. Since returning from his knee injury, Bowers has reached 4+ receptions and 55+ yards in 4 of 5 games, with strong efficiency against man coverage — 2.16 YPRR and 0.26 TPRR across 77 routes. Denver is an ideal matchup for tight ends. They allow the sixth-most receiving yards (63.8) and the 14th-most receptions (5.4) per game to TEs. Zach Ertz just posted 10/106 against them, repeatedly finding soft spots in their zone-match looks. Bowers struggled in the first meeting (31 yards), but Vegas’ offense is using him more deliberately now, especially in motion and play-action concepts designed to isolate him against linebackers.

Suggested Play:
'O' 5.5 Receptions (-125)

The Broncos are the most overrated team in my opinion right now in the NFL. With that being said they travel to Vegas to play the Raiders who are 2-10 but are good against the run. I think Denver could have troubles in this game. 

Best Bet: Raiders +7.5 -120
Lean: Under 40.5
Score Prediction Broncos 20 Raiders 17

Anytime TD

Best Pick: (Raiders) Brock Bowers +175

Denver’s defense can be stingy between the 20s, but they routinely give up early rushing opportunities. They allow the fewest adjusted yards before contact (1.46), yet once offenses get inside the 10, their gap discipline breaks down. They’ve surrendered multiple first-drive scoring chances this season because linebackers get caught flowing too aggressively on misdirection or motion-heavy sets — exactly the type of plays Las Vegas uses to help Jeanty hit daylight. In the first matchup, Jeanty scored on the Broncos and totaled 19/60/1 rushing, showing he can finish drives against this unit. Given his massive workload, red-zone command, and the Raiders’ tendency to script early touches for him to stabilize Geno Smith, Jeanty stands out as the most reliable first-touchdown pick on the roster.

Best Pick: (Broncos): RJ Harvey TD (-135)

Not the sexiest odds, especially when we want to see more of him on the ground. However, Harvey hasn't had problems finding the end zone. He scored two last week, and has six in his last five games. He didn't score in Week 10 against Las Vegas, but the Raiders allow the 3rd most rushing yards (1.1) per game to opposing RBs. And with Harvey's knack for the end zone of late, it might be worth it to slurp the juice.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Raiders) Ashton Jeanty +635

Denver’s defense can be stingy between the 20s, but they routinely give up early rushing opportunities. They allow the fewest adjusted yards before contact (1.46), yet once offenses get inside the 10, their gap discipline breaks down. They’ve surrendered multiple first-drive scoring chances this season because linebackers get caught flowing too aggressively on misdirection or motion-heavy sets — exactly the type of plays Las Vegas uses to help Jeanty hit daylight. In the first matchup, Jeanty scored on the Broncos and totaled 19/60/1 rushing, showing he can finish drives against this unit. Given his massive workload, red-zone command, and the Raiders’ tendency to script early touches for him to stabilize Geno Smith, Jeanty stands out as the most reliable first-touchdown pick on the roster.

 Parlay #1 (Raiders) +520

Geno Smith 'U' 200.5 Pass Yards

Ashton Jeanty ATD

Tre Tucker 'U' 37.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay 1: (Broncos) +200 odds on bet365

RJ Harvey TD

Courtland Sutton 4+ Receptions

QB Caleb Williams

Last week was probably the worst Williams has looked all season, finishing with a sub-50% completion percentage for the first time all season, and only threw for 154 yards and an even 1:1 TD:INT ratio. Yet, the Bears still walked away with a win against the Super Bowl Champs and now sit first overall in the NFC. But that may not last long as they get the Packers, who allow the 12th most completions (21.8), and 15th most pass attempts (32.8), but the 6th fewest passing yards (202.7) and 9th fewest passing TDs (1.3) per game to opposing QBs. Green Bay is a very zone-heavy team, running the coverage at a 78.4% clip, and the 8th most Cover 2 (18.2%). Against zone coverage, Williams has the lowest completion percentage (59.5%), the 11th lowest yards per attempt (7.03) and the 10th lowest QBR (84.1). Against Cover 2 specifically, Williams has the 2nd lowest completion percentage (61.2%), the lowest yards per attempt (4.96) and the 5th lowest QBR (89.1). Williams isn't afraid to use his legs when the pass isn't there. However, he'll have troubles doing so this week as the Packers allow the 2nd fewest rushing yards (10.3) per game to opposing QBs. Add all of this on top of the fact that Williams will be without his top receiving target this week, Rome Odunze, and you've probably got yourself a bad week for Williams and the Bears, who, as the number 1 seed in the NFC, are a touchdown underdog to a division rival.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams u213.5 Passing & Rushing Yards (-115)

RB D'Andre Swift / Kyle Monangai

Well, it was surely a near 50/50 split last week between Swift and Monangai. But it didn't matter who was out there, as both backs went over 100 rushing yards! This week might be a bit tougher as the Packers allow the 11th most rush attempts (22.3) but the 13th fewest rushing yards (86.5) per game to opposing RBs. Green Bay run more zone concept (45.5%) than man/gap (41.9%), and has respectable yards per carry when in both zone (4.01) and man/gap (3.81) this season. Swift has performmed well against both coverages this season, averaging 4.92 yards per carry against zone concept and a slightly worse 4.7 yards per carry against man/gap. Through the air, volume has been a struggle for the Packers to contain, allowing the 7th most receptions (4.9) per game to RBs, but the 9th fewest receiving yards (28.5) per game. It might not be pretty, considering Swift has not logged 2+ balls in three straight weeks, but those games were wins for the Bears. Now they're heavy dogs to a division rival, we could see the Bears come back down to earth, and Williams needing to rely on Swift through the air for a short, easy dump-off option, especially with the loss of Odunze this week. Monangai will continue to eat into Swift's workload on the ground, but through the air is where Swift will get all the work.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift 2+ Receptions (-160)

WR DJ Moore

DJ Moore has the opportunity to step back into the lead receiver role for this Bears offence with Odunze sidelined. But last week that wasn't he case, as Moore caught two of his four targets for 17 receiving yards for a 13.9% target share. That target share was lower than rookies Luther Burden and Colston Loveland, who we will get to later. It appears theres a changing of the guard in Chicago, and it's coming at the cost of Moore. But even if it wasn't it would be a tough matchup for Moore, as the Packers allow the 15th fewest receptions (11) and the 14th fewest receiving yards (130.6) per game to opposing WRs. Against zone coverage, Moore has 29 receptions on 44 targets for 401 receiving yards and a 14.8% target share. Zone is the coverage in which Moore does his best work, seeing a higher catch rate (69.7%), yards per reception (12.7) and yards per route run (1.21) compared to man coverage. Against Cover 2 specifically, Moore has seven receptions on nine targets for 111 receiving yards, but surprisingly leads the team with a 23.7% target share. Moore lines up on 65.9% of his snaps from the perimeter. Against outside receivers, the Packers are targeted at the 11th highest rate, allowing the 6th highest catch rate (65.2%), and the 11th highest yards per reception. So while it might be a good matchup for Moore, we don't like his matchup for his QB, and with the emergence of some rookies behind him, we prefer them to make an impact over Moore this week.

Suggested pick:

Pass

WR Luther Burden

Luther Burden has been seeing his snaps increase to the 50% mark over the last few weeks, that has followed to a 15% target share over the last three weeks. And that should only skyrocket with Odunze out this week. Burden had the highest target game of his career, catching four of his six targets for 33 receiving yards. His high-volume, low-yardage game came as a result of Burden playing 76% of the snaps in the slot last week. However, with Odunze out, Burden should return to the outside opposite or Moore, moving Olamide Zaccheaus to the slot, which is a much better matchup against the Packers for this week. Against zone coverage, Burden has 22 receptions on 28 targets for 274 receiving yards, but a 10.4% target share. Compared to man coverage, Burden sees his catch rate (81%) and yards per route run (2.48) increase in zone coverage, but his yards per reception (13.7) dip. Against Cover 2, specifically, Burden has four receptions on six targets for 22 receiving yards and a 12.5% target share. With Burden likely lining up on the outside, he should draw the second toughest matchup, which should lead to the rookie having a breakout game. Burden has logged 3+ receptions in four straight weeks, and 38+ receiving yards in two of the last four, all doing so in a more limited workload than he'll receive this week.

Suggested pick:

Luther Burden o37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Colston Loveland

Colston Loveland continues to see heavy volume, but as we predicted, he went under his 31.5 receiving yards line. This week, he should see more volume with Odunze out, especially against this Packers defence that allows the 10th most receptions (5.8) but the 7th fewest receiving yards (43.3) per game to opposing TEs. Against zone coverage, Loveland has caught 24 of his 33 targets for 352 receiving yards and a 12.5% target share. He sees his catch rate (71.4%), yards per reception (12.5) and yards per route run. (1.64) increase in zone coverage compared to man. Against Cover 2, Loveland is a perfect 3/3 on his targets, for 21 receiving yards, but on just a 6.3% target share. As a TE, Loveland lines up on 44.4% of his routes from the inline position. Against inline receivers, Green Bay is targeted at the 10th highest rate, allowing a 76.5% catch rate but the lowest yards per reception (6.87). Luckily for us, this all lines up nicely for Loveland to have a heavy volume day against a defence that allows a high volume rate to the TE and inline position. Loveland has logged 4+ receptions in three of the last five weeks, averaging four receptions per game.

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland o3.5 Receptions (+105)

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love snapped out of a three-game downturn last week, completing 18 of 30 passes for 234 yards (7.8 YPA) and 4 touchdowns in the win over Detroit. Before that performance, he failed to exceed 176 passing yards in three straight games and had thrown 1 or fewer TDs in five of his last seven. His season has been streaky, but the upside is still there whenever Green Bay leans into tempo and intermediate throws. This matchup works in his favor. Chicago runs Cover 3 (30.3%) and Cover 2 (22.8%) on over half its snaps, and Love has been sharp against those looks — 8.30 YPA, +7.9% CPOE, and solid scrambling efficiency with 7/54 rushing on 161 dropbacks. The Bears are quietly vulnerable through the air despite improving structurally: they allow the 12th-most passing yards per game (235.3) and the second-most passing TDs per game (2.0). Chicago just gave up 230 yards and 2 TDs to Jalen Hurts, and Love produced 261 yards and a passing TD plus a rushing TD in his lone start vs the Bears last season. With Watson healthy, Reed returning, and Doubs still functioning as a chain-mover, Love has more than enough support to stay efficient.

Suggested Play:
'O' 219.5 Passing Yards (-120)

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs hasn’t found the end zone in back-to-back games since returning, totaling 17 carries for 83 yards and just one 8-yard catch last week. His usage remains strong (55% snap share, lead back on early downs), but the passing-game involvement has evaporated, and scoring opportunities have been limited. Still, Jacobs has historically dominated this type of defensive front. Chicago is quietly one of the more vulnerable teams against downhill runners. They allow the second-most adjusted yards before contact (2.87) and rank 9th-worst in rushing yards per game allowed (103.8), meaning offensive lines regularly create movement against them. The Bears tighten up against receiving backs (28.3 receiving YPG allowed), but Jacobs does most of his damage on gap and inside-zone concepts anyway. Jacobs posted 18/76/1 rushing and 4/58 receiving in his lone meeting vs the Bears with Love under center. If Green Bay plays with a lead — which they often do against Chicago — Jacobs’ volume should climb into the 18–22 touch range again.

Suggested Play:
'O' 78.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

WR Christian Watson

The Bears run Cover 3 and Cover 2 on 53.1% of snaps, and Watson has historically been excellent against both. He averages 2.07 yards per route run with a 22% target rate vs these coverage families, which is elite efficiency for an outside receiver. Chicago’s perimeter coverage continues to lag behind — they allow the 12th-most YPRR (2.02) and 11th-most yards per target (8.60) to outside receivers. Their corners have struggled all season with losing leverage on vertical stems, and last week A.J. Brown shredded them for 10/132/2, exposing those same weaknesses. What really elevates Watson’s TD potential is how the Packers use him inside the 20. Green Bay isolates him on the backside of formations, forcing defenses into either single coverage or difficult bracket calls. Love has shown he isn’t afraid to throw him jump balls, back-shoulder tries, or fade routes in scoring areas. And of course, Watson already proved he can punish Chicago specifically — posting 4 catches for 150 yards last season in his only full game against them with Love as his quarterback. Put all of that together — role, matchup, historical performance, and the way Green Bay schemes him near the goal line — and Watson profiles as one of the strongest anytime touchdown plays of the week.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+165)

WR Romeo Doubs

Romeo Doubs broke a seven-game touchdown drought last week but still produced modest yardage — 4/20/1 on 4 targets. His underlying usage remains volatile, and he has failed to reach 23 yards in three of his last four games. Still, Doubs tends to stabilize against zone-heavy teams like Chicago. Against Cover 3/Cover 2, he averages 1.92 YPRR and draws a target on 19% of routes, functioning as a reliable short-to-intermediate option when Love is pressured. The Bears give up the 10th-most yards per reception (13.74) to outside receivers but the 16th-fewest receiving YPG (99.6), meaning efficiency is possible but volume must be earned. Doubs did manage a 17-yard catch in last year’s meeting, but his role in 2024 is more possession-based than explosive. He should see 4–6 targets, but Watson and Reed project to command the majority of the high-value routes.

Suggested Play:
'O' 35.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Jayden Reed

Because Watson commands safety attention outside, the Bears are likely to shade coverage toward the boundary early, leaving the middle of the field stretched thin. That’s where Reed does most of his damage — digs, drags, quick outs, return routes, and RPO glance concepts. He has shown strong chemistry with Love in timing-based patterns, which is exactly what Green Bay calls on the first drive to settle the offense. Reed already scored against Chicago last year (2/23/1) despite limited usage at the time, and Green Bay’s offensive structure in 2024 positions him for even more involvement. His explosiveness after the catch also gives him multiple paths to scoring: schemed short passes, motion misdirection, or breaking a tackle in the open field. With his alignment advantage, early-drive usage, and Chicago’s clear slot deficiencies, Reed stands out as perhaps the most logical first touchdown pick on the Packers roster.

Suggested Play:
First TD Scorer (+1780)

My best pick for this game is taking the Over. Both offenses have looked very good over the last couple weeks and I expect the Packers to win this in a close one

Best Bet: Over 43.5 -120
Lean: Packers 'O' 23.5 -160
Score Prediction Bears 23 Packers 27

Anytime TD

Best Pick: (Packers) Christian Watson +165

The Bears run Cover 3 and Cover 2 on 53.1% of snaps, and Watson has historically been excellent against both. He averages 2.07 yards per route run with a 22% target rate vs these coverage families, which is elite efficiency for an outside receiver. Chicago’s perimeter coverage continues to lag behind — they allow the 12th-most YPRR (2.02) and 11th-most yards per target (8.60) to outside receivers. Their corners have struggled all season with losing leverage on vertical stems, and last week A.J. Brown shredded them for 10/132/2, exposing those same weaknesses. What really elevates Watson’s TD potential is how the Packers use him inside the 20. Green Bay isolates him on the backside of formations, forcing defenses into either single coverage or difficult bracket calls. Love has shown he isn’t afraid to throw him jump balls, back-shoulder tries, or fade routes in scoring areas. And of course, Watson already proved he can punish Chicago specifically — posting 4 catches for 150 yards last season in his only full game against them with Love as his quarterback. Put all of that together — role, matchup, historical performance, and the way Green Bay schemes him near the goal line — and Watson profiles as one of the strongest anytime touchdown plays of the week.

Best Pick: (Bears): Colston Loveland TD (+425)

Loveland has three TDs in his last five games. Since Loveland started playing over 50% of the snaps (W7), Loveland actually leads the team in receptions and receiving yards. The only guy really close is Odunze, who, as we've mentioned, is out this week. Since Week 7, Loveland leads the Bears in receiving TDs (3) and is second on the team in inside the 20 targets. The Packers allow the 11th most receiving TDs (0.4) per game to opposing TEs.

Longshot:

First TD Scorer

Longshot (Packers): Jayden Reed +1780

Because Watson commands safety attention outside, the Bears are likely to shade coverage toward the boundary early, leaving the middle of the field stretched thin. That’s where Reed does most of his damage — digs, drags, quick outs, return routes, and RPO glance concepts. He has shown strong chemistry with Love in timing-based patterns, which is exactly what Green Bay calls on the first drive to settle the offense. Reed already scored against Chicago last year (2/23/1) despite limited usage at the time, and Green Bay’s offensive structure in 2024 positions him for even more involvement. His explosiveness after the catch also gives him multiple paths to scoring: schemed short passes, motion misdirection, or breaking a tackle in the open field. With his alignment advantage, early-drive usage, and Chicago’s clear slot deficiencies, Reed stands out as perhaps the most logical first touchdown pick on the Packers roster.

 Parlay #1 (Packers) +520

Christian Watson ATD

Jordan Love 'O' 219.5 Pass Yards
Romeo Doubs 'O' 35.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay 1: (Bears) +260 odds on bet365

D'Andre Swift 2+ Receptions

Luther Burden 30+ Receiving Yards

Colston Loveland 3+ Receptions

QB Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford finally looked human last week on the road against what proved to be a tough Carolina defense. Still, the veteran QB threw for 243 yards and 2 TDs, while averaging 8.7 YPPA. The difference in this game was the Rams committed 3 turnovers, two of which came on Stafford interceptions. The first was a fluke tipped pass, but it couldn't have come on a worse place, as the batted ball was picked off in the end zone. However, the real undoing was Mike Jackson's pick-6 late in the 4th quarter that sealed the game for the Panthers. LA will now travel for the second straight week to meet division rival Arizona at the Jiffy Pop. But this is a tricky matchup for Stafford who the Cardinals have presented him with issues in the past. This is due largely in part to ARI head coach Jonahtan Gannon, whose defensive prowess has limited Matthew Stafford to just one touchdown pass or fewer in 3 of 4 meetings. Oddly enough, Stafford threw for 4 TDs in that other game. The Cardinals received a shot in the arm last Sunday with the return of Will Johnson, whose impact on the field is simply immeasurable. This proved true once again last week as Arizona allowed just 6.9 YPPA to the Buccaneers. It was the fewest they have allowed since week 9, and it just so happens that was the last time Johnson was able to suit up and play. To show just how impactful Will Johnson's presence is, consider this. The Cardinals have allowed a 66.3% completion rate, 7.8 YPPA and a 5.4% TD rate in 166 pass attempts without Johnson. On the contrary, with Johnson on the field (235 pass attempts), Arizona is allowing a 63.0% completion rate, 6.4 YPPA and a 3.4% TD rate. One of the main reasons this has been a historically difficult matchup for Matthew Stafford is because the ARI defense has excelled against play-action passing, which is where Stafford does a lot of his damage. The Cards are allowing a league-low 57.0% completion rate and just 6.5 YPA in this area. The one negative here is when they are beaten, it usually results in big plays down the field, and this is where Davante Adams has significant value this week, but we'll get to that later. Arizona has similar success with regard to under-center passing. Rarely, will we you ever hear Matthew Stafford's name attached to the expression, "boom or bust," but I think that's the case this week. Still, he has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 10 of his last 11 games, and the Rams offense is just too explosive to hold down for 60 minues. Will Johnson is going to play a major impact on this game, so I'm going a slightly safer route on Stafford for this week.

Suggested Bet:

Matthew Stafford Parlay (-135)

240+ Pass Yards (+) 2+ Pass TDs

RB Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams briefly exited last Sunday's game with an ankle injury, but returned to score a touchdown. Sean McVay said he's felt pretty good in practice and is expected to play, so there's no reason to panic here. An interesting trend we've seen with Williams as of late is he seems to be sharing much more of the work load in the first half of games, as compared to the second. Over the last 3 weeks, Williams has been on the field for 58% of the Rams first half snaps, where he's seen 18 total touches. In comparison, he's had a second half snap share of 77.5% with 22 touches. While three weeks is a fairly small samply size, it's worth keeping an eye on and if you're a betting glutton there could be some first half value on Williams under rushing yards and Blake Corum's over. If anything, this further supplants just how smart of a coach Sean McVay is, regardless of how you feel about him. He's conserving Williams and using him to close out games. It also speaks to the unselfishness of Kyren as a player, who is more than capable of carrying a heavy workload, but he to sees the talent level of Blake Corum and this allows him to conserve his legs for the stretch run of each game. He's eclipsed 100+ rushing yards just once this season and 100 or more total yards just three times, but he's been a consistent TD scorer all year. Williams has found the end zone 10 times already this season, and has recorded at least 1+ touchdown in 8 of 12 games this year. Furthermore, he's found paydirt in 4 of his L5 games. This Sunday's matchup in Arizona is another great spot to back Kyren to score. The Cardinals have allowed a whopping 15 touchdowns to RBs in '25 (6th most), and they have especially struggled to contain production against opposing backfields as of late, surrendering 130.0 total YPG over the past seven weeks. In the past month alone, ARI has given up seven total backfield touchdowns @ SEA (2), vs SF (3), vs JAX (1) and @ TB (1). I absolutely love Williams for at least one TD in this game, and I would check in at halftime to see what Kyren's second half rush prop is.

Suggested Bet:

Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-105)

WR Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua recorded 6 catches for 72 yards in week 13 at Carolina. He's been on the field for 86.4% of the Rams snaps, where he's seen a target share of 32.8% over the past two weeks. Since coming off a week 9 bye, Nacua boasts the 3rd highest YPRR (3.28). Arizona uses two-high safeties on roughly 57% of its defensive snaps, and they play Cover-4 at a league-high 27% of their snaps. This sets up Puka nicely, where he's been targeted on 37% of his routes for 3.48 YPR. It's worth pointing out that Davante Adams (34%) leads Nacua (27%) in targets per route run against all two-high looks. This game could easily turn into a shootout so Puka shouldn't have much trouble compiling yardage here.

Suggested Bet:

Puka Nacua 90+ Rec Yards (-128)

WR Davante Adams

Davante Adams continues to play consistently, torching opposing teams in the end zone. He hauled in 4 balls for 58 yards, while adding another two touchdowns to his '25 resume. Heading into week 14, Adams has scored in six consecutive games, where he's recorded 11 TD receptions during this stretch. Since end zone targets began being tracked in 2005, Mike Evans holds the NFL record with 26 in 2016, but Davante Adams is well on his way to obliterating that record, as he already has 24 end zone targets heading into Sunday's game in Arizona. Not only does this matchup provide the same TD value, but we could also see a big uptick in his yardage as he is being targeted at a 34.0% rate with 2.51 YPR against two-high coverage, which the Cardinals run on 57% of its defensive snaps. There's reason to be very excited about Adams in a game where he has a huge ceiling.

Suggested Bet:

Davante Adams Parlay (-105)

5+ Receptions (+) 50+ Rec Yards

Davante Adams Anytime TD (-150)

Davante Adams 2+ ALT TDs (+390)

TE Colby Parkinson / Terrance Ferguson / Davis Allen

It was difficult enough finding any value when Tyler Higbee was healthy, and without him the Rams tight end position is nothing more than a revolving door between Colby Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson and Davis Allen. Parkinson has the best position in this current threesome. He caught 4 of 5 targets last week for 27 yards on 13 routes. Davis Allen had one reception for 4 yards on 9 routes and Terrance Ferguson ran 8 routes, but didn't see a single target. There's just too much inconsistency within this trio. We have a plethora of value in this game with Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, so I'm not wasting my time chasing after a backup mediocre LA Ram TE.

Suggested Bet: 

Pass

QB Jacoby Brissett

Since taking over as the starting QB, Jacoby Brissett has been a high-volume passer, averaging 314.5 passing YPG across six starts. Brissett has exceeded 300+ yards in 3 of those games, including each of his L2 outings. This Sunday, Brissett will face a Buccaneers defense that primarily employs zone coverage schemes. This sets up nicely for a Cardinals offense that has experienced success with Brissett under center by targeting its perimeter wide receivers, a position where Tampa Bay has allowed the 2nd most receiving YPG since week 8. For as good as the Bucs have been against the run, they've performed equally as bad against the pass. TB possesses one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, allowing an average of 243.5 passing YPG. Moreover, the Buccaneers have have surrendered 300+ yards to Sam Darnold (341), Mac Jones (347) and Josh Allen (317). I look for Brissett to clear his passing yards prop with ease, and I like that he has several avenues in which to navigate this. The first being that we could easily see a shootout between the two teams here in Tampa. Another route is if the Bucs get out in front of Arizona early. TB has not played particularly well since its bye week. After starting the season out 6-2, the Buccaneers have lost 3 straight to drop to 6-5, so they should return to Raymond James Stadium playing extremely hungry. If this occurs, it's likely to result in Jacoby Brissett racking up some yards late in the game via method of garbage time, which we've seen him do multiple times this season. Lastly, Tampa Bay blows a lot of coverages and this has led to several big plays in the passing.

Suggested Bet:

Jacoby Brissett 260+ Pass Yards (-127)

RB Bam Knight

Bam Knight was limited in all three of Arizona's practices this week, while managing a knee issue. He was deemed questionable on Friday's final injury report, but it sounds like he's going to give it a go against Tampa Bay this Sunday. A lot of this may be largely due to the fact that Trey Benson and Emari Demercado habe both been ruled for week 13. As a result, Knight along with Michael Carter should combine to see most of the offensive snaps. With that said, the Buccaneers defense has been staunch against the run all season. They have had allowed a few big runs this season, but that has been a product of the defense being forced to stay on the field, and this game does not indicate that Tampa Bay will be forced to play from behind, at least not for long periods at a time. The Bucs have been especially stong in the opening quarter and halves of each game in stopping the run. This is a game where Arizona will once again be leaning on its passing game. Knight will already be sharing touches with Michael Carter, and the Bucs do a great job of creating negative rushing plays.

Suggested Bet:

Bam Knight u17.5 1H Rush Yards (-119)

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is hoping to suit up against Tampa Bay on Sunday, but we are faced with a pair of obstacles as it relates to MHJ. The first being if he does suit up, will Harrison be limited in any capacity. The second, however is Jamel Dean's status for Sunday. The Bucs DB is the highest graded CB in the NFL, and he ranks 1st in the league in passer rating when targeted (18.7%) and completion percentage allowed when targeted (39.1%). Given Arizona's high rate of dropbacks we should still see a ton of passes going Harrison's way on Sunday, but Michael Wilson's production over the past few weeks will not be ignored. Needless to say, there still remains several questions surrounding how Arizona will use MHJ and Michael Wilson together on the field, not to mention how Jamel Dean's trending upward status will factor in here. For this reason, we're keeping it simple in week 13 with the Cardinals receivers and I still think we're getting gifted on Marvin Harrison Jr's reception total of 3.5.

Suggested Bet:

Marvin Harrison Jr. o3.5 Receptions (-150)

WR Michael Wilson

Anyone who thinks Michael Wilson is going to go back to his former role and disappear is out of their mind, and this was more or less confirmed today by Arizona OC Drew Petzing. He was specifically asked today about how Wilson would be affected by the return of MHJ, in which he responded, "When you produce in this league, we're gonna give you more opportunities to do that. I think that's our job as coaches. I think that's always gotta be the case." In the last 2 weeks, Wilson has put up 15 catches on 18 targets for 185 yards, and 10 catches on 15 targets for 118 yards. Despite the return of Marvin Harrison Jr., his reception and yardage lines are still too low. MHJ is coming back from appendicits, which may limit his usage/and or production. The connection between Brissett and Wilson is too good to simply shelve, and I would be shocked if the Cardinals move away from it. There is plenty of roomfor both Harrioson and Wilson to play well as WRs. As far as this Sunday is concerned, Wilson has a phenomenal matchup against the Bucs who have allowed the 6th most receiving yards to WRs and 5th most yards per reception. Tampa Bay also allows the 4th most targets to outside WRs, which is where Wilson has lined up for 78% of his routes. On the other hand, they have given up the 11th fewest yards to tight ends, and word out of One Buc Place is that Trey McBride should expect to see multiple double teams. In the past few weeks, outside WRs have absolutely destroyed Tampa Bay in this matchup. This is a list that includes Puka Nacua (97 yards), Davante Adams (62 yards), Tyrell Shavers (90 yards), Mack Hollins (106 yards), Kyle Williams (72 yards), Rashid Shaheed (75 yards), Chris Olave (63 yards) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (86 yards). Michael Wilson will be added to this list after Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Michael Wilson Jr. o56.5 Rec Yards (-113

WR Trey McBride

Over the past 24 hours, there have been several concerns swirling about Trey McBride potentially facing multiple double teams instituted by Todd Bowles and the Bucs on Sunday. For this reason, I'm going to target McBride as an Anytime TD scorer. The Arizona TE has been a scoring machine lately, posting 4 TDs in his L5 games. He's cashed in on almost every matchup where the Cardinals have found themselves inside the opponents 20-yard line. His connection with Jacoby Brissett has been nothing short of elite since he took over for Kyler Murray under center. McBride has clearly cemented himself as the clear#1 option in red-zone, in addition to recording 9+ catches in each of his L3 games. In six games with Brissett at QB, McBride is up to 51 catches for 522 yards and 6 TD. McBride may see some double teams up and down the field, but his scoring production in the end zone is second to none right now.

Suggested Bet:

Trey McBride Jr. Anytime TD (+130)

Best Bet: Over 47.5 (-142)
Lean: Arizona +10.5 (-135)
Score Prediction: Rams 30-21

Anytime TD

Best Pick (Rams): Kyren Williams -110

Over the past 4 games Arizona has surrendered seven touchdown scores to opposing backfields. This includes 2 TD (@ SEA), 3 TD (vs SF), TD (vs JAX) and TD (@ TB). Kyren Williams has already found the end zone 10 times this season, recording at least 1+ touchdown in 8 of 12 games in '25. He's also scored at TD in 4 of L5 games, and this Sunday I expect him to find paydirt again.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick (Rams): Davante Adams +475

We hit this last week, and it ain't broke don't fix it. Davante Adams leads the NFL in end zone targets with 24. Adams has scored at least 1+ TD in six consecutive games, and has scored 11 total during this span. Davante Adams is Matthew Stafford's bread and butter inside the red zone, and he scored the first touchdown last week in Carolina.

Parlay #1 (Rams) +230

Puka Nacua 80+ Rec Yards

Davante Adams 50+ Rec Yards

Davante Adams Anytime TD

Parlay #2 (Cardinals) +250

Jacoby Brissett 250+ Pass Yards

Michael Wilson 70+ Rec Yards

Trey McBride 8+ Receptions 

QB C.J. Stroud
Stroud has completed 183 of 277 passes (66.1%) for 1,978 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions this season. Last week he threw for 276 yards. He faces a Chiefs defense that allows just 6.0 yards per pass attempt (3rd lowest) and 8.6 yards per completion (2nd lowest). Advanced stats show Stroud has a 91.1 passer rating and a 3.6% turnover-worthy throw rate. Kansas City plays zone at the 20th highest rate (69.3%) and uses 2-high coverage frequently. Stroud struggled some in both matchups vs KC last season, throwing for 245 and 244 yards with a total of 2 passing TD’s and 2 INT’s. KC has been tough at home, allowing 6.0 yards per pass attempt (3rd lowest), 8.6 yards per completion (2nd lowest) and a 3.7% touchdown rate (11th lowest). Given the difficult matchup and Kansas City's ability to play keep-away if they hold a lead (control the clock with the run and short passing game), fading Stroud's completions is the play.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 22.5 Passing Completions (-120)

RB Woody Marks
Marks has secured the starting role with 134 carries for 485 yards and 2 touchdowns, but efficiency remains an issue (3.63 YPC). Last week, he turned 19 carries into just 64 yards. Despite high volume (19, 17, and 20 touches in the last three games), his production has been capped, and he is a non-factor in the passing game recently (4 catches in four games). Kansas City allows the 5th fewest rushing yards per game to backs (76.0) and faces the second-fewest attempts this season. Marks is a volume-based player running into a wall right now. I’ll take the under on his rushing yards.

Suggested Pick
‘U’ 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Nico Collins
Collins bounced back last week with 5 catches for 98 yards, bringing his season total to 57 catches for 795 yards. He commands a 24.0% target share and 31.3% of the team's receiving yards. The concern is Kansas City's heavy use of two-high coverage (57.5% - 3rd highest), a scheme where Collins averages 1.84 yards per route run compared to 2.78 against single-high. However, Collins ranks 4th among receivers in target rate against pressure, and Kansas City ranks 8th in pressure rate this season. Stroud leans on him heavily, and recent big games by opposing WR1s suggest Collins can produce despite the coverage shells. We have seen some solid yardage totals against this defense: Lamb (112 yards), Pickens (88), Troy Franklin (84) and Pat Bryant (82). Expect 8-12 targets and back him to deliver.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Jayden Higgins
Higgins has been a reliable secondary option with 32 catches for 359 yards and 4 touchdowns, posting a 65.3% catch rate. Last week he had 5 catches for 65 yards. He plays almost exclusively out wide (79.1%). While he has a strong 103.7 passer rating when targeted, he faces a difficult secondary in a game where targets may consolidate around Collins. Expect a regression to the mean and a quiet week for Higgins.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Dalton Schultz
Schultz is coming off a strong week with 7 catches for 55 yards, maintaining a solid floor with at least 5 receptions in eight of his last ten games. On the season, he has 59 catches for 552 yards. However, the matchup isn’t great. Schultz sees his target rate drop to 23% and efficiency dip to 1.82 yards per route against the two-high looks that Kansas City plays often. Additionally, the Chiefs allow the 6th fewest targets and 9th fewest receptions to tight ends. Despite a good week last game, I’d suggest taking the under on his receptions here.

Suggested Picks
‘U' 4.5 Receptions (-115)

QB Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes is coming off a sharp 23/34, 261-yard, 4-TD performance against Dallas, adding 30 rushing yards and showing that Kansas City can still lean on him when the offense needs to be aggressive. He has produced multiple touchdowns in eight of twelve games and topped 28 rushing yards in eight contests. Houston runs Cover 3 and Cover 4 on over half their defensive snaps, and Mahomes has historically handled these shells well, averaging 8.08 YPA, a +4.7% CPOE, and 185 scramble/design rushing yards across 225 dropbacks against those coverages. The Texans still rank fourth-best in passing yards allowed (196.2 per game) and fifth-best in passing TDs allowed (1.0 per game), but their zone spacing opens soft pockets over the middle and behind linebackers — areas Mahomes consistently targets with rhythm throws. He posted a conservative 177 yards against Houston last postseason but did so on game-script-controlled volume. This matchup should feature more downfield attempts and more forced creation outside structure.

Suggested Play:

'O' 241.5 Passing Yards (-120)

WR Rashee Rice

Rashee Rice handled a massive role last week with 8/92/2 on 12 targets, a continuation of his breakout usage as he has posted 6+ receptions in five of six games and double-digit targets in nearly every contest. He carries a strong 30% target-per-route rate versus zone coverage, and against Houston’s Cover 3/Cover 4 combinations, he averages 2.79 YPRR and .30 TPRR on 77 routes — elite efficiency for a slot-focused receiver. Houston allows the 10th-most receiving yards per game (78.3) and 10th-most yards per route run to slot receivers, and they recently gave up 8/110 to Khalil Shakir in a very similar usage profile. Rice wins with pacing and change-of-direction routes, and Houston’s linebackers are consistently late closing underneath windows, which gives him a high-floor environment for 8–12 targets again.

Suggested Play:

'O' 23.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

WR Xavier Worthy

Xavier Worthy produced 4/61 receiving and added two designed runs for 13 yards vs. Dallas — one of the better games of his rookie season. Worthy has cleared three receptions in eight of nine full games and is now being schemed touches more consistently, but Houston is a tough perimeter matchup. They allow just 75.8 receiving yards per game to outside receivers and only 1.65 YPRR, among the stingiest marks in the league. Worthy averages 1.60 YPRR and .25 TPRR against the Texans’ preferred zone shells across 126 routes, suggesting regular involvement but lower explosive-play probability than Rice. He did post 5/45 on six targets in last postseason’s meeting and remains one of Kansas City’s best horizontal separators, meaning he can still hit short-to-intermediate overs if the Chiefs expand his usage.

Suggested Play:

'O' 3.5 Receptions (+105)

TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce had a steady 5/45/1 line last week and has now posted at least 43 yards in 11 of 12 games while hitting four or more receptions 10 times. Despite Houston being one of the league’s strongest defenses against tight ends (39.4 receiving yards and 4.3 receptions allowed per game), Kelce is the type of tight end who beats even good matchups. His 2.14 YPRR and .21 TPRR vs. Houston’s Cover 3/Cover 4 structures, across 150 routes, show how comfortable he is sitting in zone voids. He also roasted Houston for 7/117/1 in last year’s Divisional Round and remains Mahomes’ top third-down and red-zone option. Even if Houston brackets him early, Kansas City has shown a willingness to use him on quick-out spacing and pivot routes that reliably generate 6–9 targets.

Suggested Play:

'O' 4.5 Receptions (-120)

RB Kareem Hunt

Kareem Hunt led the backfield again in Week 13 with 14/58 rushing and a 22-yard reception, while Isiah Pacheco saw limited work in his first game back. Hunt handled 67% of the snaps, 61% of the carries, and 45% of the routes — meaning he still profiles as the clear lead option unless Kansas City accelerates Pacheco’s usage. Houston is a bad matchup for running backs on the ground, allowing just 74.4 rushing yards per game and ranking top-five in yards before contact allowed. They are more vulnerable through the air, giving up 31 receiving yards per game to RBs, and Hunt saw route participation high enough to matter. His scoring chances depend heavily on short-field opportunities, but Kansas City’s offense should put him near the goal line at least once.

Suggested Play:

'O' 6.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The Chiefs defensively have struggled against play action passes but lucky for them the Texans struggle when running that which has caused them to only run it 27% of the time. Chiefs win this one to stay alive for now in the Playoff hunt

Best Bet: Chiefs -2.5 -152
Lean: Texans 'U' 21.5 Pts -180
Score Prediction Texans 14 Chiefs 20

Anytime TD

Best Pick (Texans): Nico Collins +175
This just looks like a feed Nico game. Last season he had 8 and 10 targets between the two matchup vs KC. He has double-digit targets in 5 of his past 6 games. Over the past 4 weeks Nico has 9 redzone target, which is by far the highest on the team. Look for Collins to be heavily involved in what may turn into a negative game script with KC essentially in an elimination game.

Best Pick (Chiefs): Travis Kelce +195
Kelce remains Mahomes’ most reliable red-zone read, and the usage backs it up. He owns an 18% target share inside the 20 and a 25% target share inside the 10, and Houston’s red-zone coverage trends toward soft spot-dropping zone, which Kelce has beaten for years with patience and leverage manipulation. The Texans are allowing just 1 passing TD per game, but their touchdowns allowed to TEs are clustered around high-volume, precision-based offenses — exactly the kind of environment Kelce thrives in. His route participation inside the 20 has remained stable even in games where scoring was low, and he already torched this same defense for 7/117/1 last postseason with nearly identical coverage rates. With Mahomes likely needing controlled, chain-moving completions against Houston’s two-high variations, Kelce profiles as the cleanest TD pathway on the team.

Longshot:

First TD Scorer

Best Bet (Chiefs): Kareem Hunt +605

Hunt has handled 61% of the carries and 67% of the snaps since returning to the lead-back role, with Kansas City continuing to use him early in games to establish structure and balance. Even in a matchup where rushing efficiency is expected to be limited, the Chiefs frequently use Hunt on their scripted first two drives, including red-zone sets where they force linebackers to widen before handing him inside zone or counter. Houston’s defense is excellent between the 20s but has shown vulnerability on the goal line, allowing several short rushing TDs this season due to interior displacement and late linebacker fills. Hunt also retains the two-minute and early-series passing role, giving him multiple avenues to touch the ball before anyone else on the field. His 8/44/1 line vs. this defense in the postseason last year further highlights the role stability he has near the end zone. With Kansas City favored to earn the first high-leverage scoring opportunity, Hunt offers real value as the first TD scorer.

Longshot (Texans): C.J. Stroud +5000
This just feels like a game where both QB's use their legs. Up until the concussion, we've seen Stroud use his legs a lot this season thanks to a sub-par offensive line. KC can get pressure, which should force Stroud out of the pocket at times. Now a full week past the concussion symptoms we could see a more aggressive Stroud in prime time.

 Parlay #1 (Texans) +322
Nico Collins 60+ Receiving Yards
Dalton Schultz under 4.5 Receptions
C.J. Stroud 10+ Rushing Yards

Parlay #2 (Chiefs) +685

Patrick Mahomes 'O' 241.5 Pass Yards
Travis Kelce ATD

Kareem Hunt 'O' 6.5 Receiving Yards