QB Bryce Young

In his three years as a starting quarterback, Bryce Young is 4-19 on the road, including a 2-13 record when playing outdoors. Despite how much Tampa Bay has struggled defensively, it's hard to trust Young to perform well through the air...especially in a big game. Still, there is a great deal of value in Bryce Young's line of 'Over' 17.5 Rush Yards for this Saturday. For starters, the Bucs defense allows the 6th most rushing YPG to opposing QBs (21.9). Two weeks ago in Week 16, Young carried the ball 4 times for 20 yards vs TB. The Panthers QB has only hit this number in 5 of 16 games in '25, but there is major disparity in his rushing tendencies as of late. Over the first 11 games of the season, Young averaged just 8.9 rushing yards on 2.5 carries per game. However, Young has cleared this prop line in four straight weeks, posting games of 5-23-0 (LAR), 7-49-0 (at NO), 4-20-0 (TB) and 9-27-1 (SEA). During this span, the Carolina quarterback is averaging 29.8 rushing yards on 6.3 carries per game. This is primarily due to the fact that the Panthers running game has fallen off significantly. In Week 16 against the Buccaneers, Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard combined for just 56 rushing yards on 15 carries. Tampa Bay may also be getting Calijah Kancey back for this game, which will make things even tougher on the CAR backfield. As bad as the Bucs pass defense has been this year, they are still going to force Bryce Young to throw the ball if they want to win. Looking back at film from two weeks ago, the Panthers dropped back to throw the ball a ton. In fact, Young's game vs Tampa marked his second highest number of pass attempts this season (32). With this in mind, coupled with how much Todd Bowles loves to blitz, Young will be looking to evade in this win or go home game and they will need his legs here on Saturday.

Suggested Bet:

Bryce Young o17.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Bryce Young 25+ ALT Rush Yards (+163)

Bryce Young 30+ ALT Rush Yards (+240)

RB Rico Dowdle

Let's not complicate things here. The Panthers have not been a good running team in the back half of the season, and Bryce Young threw the ball 32 times in Week 16 vs Tampa Bay. Make no mistake about it, the Bucs will unequivocally force Young to win this game out of the air. As I mentioned earlier, the potential return of Calijah Kancey will also make running the ball more difficult. Dowdle is clearly the best pass-catching back out of the Panthers backfield. He caught 4 of 6 targets for 14 yards in Week 16 vs TB, and Young will rely on him once again as his safety blanket this Saturday. Nobody in the league has allowed more receiving yards (52.1) to opposing RBs than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Young clearly does not have the respect of Tampa Bay with regard to the passing game, which is why Rico accumulated just 14 yards, so the best play here is his receptions total. The Bucs give up the 10th most receptions per game (4.7) to opposing RBs. We're getting a very favorable price here too.

Suggested Bet:

Rico Dowdle o2.5 Receptions (-122)

WR Tetaroia McMillan

Tetaroia McMillan has fallen on hard times as of late. The Carolina rookie WR has caught just 12 passes over a five week stretch that has seen him record games of 1-5-0 (SEA), 6-73-1 (TB), 2-25-0 (at NO), 1-43-1 (LAR) and 2-35-1 (at SF). To no one's surprise, his effort vs Tampa Bay is the standout performance here. McMillan enters the final week of the season needing 71 receiving yards to reach the 1,000 yard plateau. The Buccaneers deployed Cover-2 (36.1%) and Cover-1 (27.8%) for 63.9% of its defensive snaps against Carolina in Week 16. McMillan was targeted 10 times in that game, where he hauled in 6 balls for 73 yards and a TD. In 168 routes vs these two coverages, Tet averages 2.33 YPRR and .26 TPRR. The Bucs secondary has been shredded all season long. They allow the 13th most receiving YPG (106.6) and 13th most receptions per game (8.0) to receivers aligned out wide. Saturday's script calls for anywhere from 30-35 passes from Bryce Young. While I'm not expecting Young to overachieve here, I do think he will lean heavily on his most reliable receiver. The 1,000 yard incentive doesn't hurt matters here either.

Suggested Bet:

Tetaroia McMillan 60+ Rec Yards (-117)

WR Jalen Coker

Jalen Coker caught 3 of 5 targets for 47 yards the last time he faced the Bucs in Week 16. The Tampa Bay pass defense has been atrocious this season, but they aren't going to make it easy on Bryce Young this Saturday with the NFC South on the line. As awful as Todd Bowles has been this year (he should be fired), he does make good adjustments. Carolina's lack of a solid running game could really hurt them in this one, and everything points to Coker not matching what he did in the first outing. Still, at 6-3, 213 pounds, the Panthers WR can make a big play at any time. We're getting a very good price on his 'Over' 16.5 Longest Reception. Coker has cleared this number in 6 of 10 games this season, and outside of last week's game vs Seattle, the second-year WR hit this in five consecutive games, recording longs of 34 (TB), 32 (at NO), 33 (LAR), 18 (at SF) and 21 (at ATL). When you take his recent consistency and couple it with the high volume of busted coverages by TB this year, you would be crazy not to play this spot on Saturday.

Suggested Bet:

Jalen Coker o16.6 Longest Reception (-125)

TE Mitchell Evans/Ja'Tavion Sanders/Tommy Tremble

When these two teams met in Week 16, Panthers tight ends caught all six of the targets thrown their way. Mitchell Evans finished with 3-23-0, Ja'Tavion Sanders had 2-9-1 and Tommy Tremble found the state sheet with 1-6-0. If you take a look at Carolina's TE production this season, you will see strikingly similar numbers between these three. Tommy Tremble has caught 24 balls for 211 yards (TD), Ja'Tavion Sanders has recorded 29 receptions for 190 yards (TD) and Mitchell Evans has 18 catches for 166 yards (2 TD). There is just way too much parody among these guys to target anyone specifically. 

Suggested Bet:

Pass

QB Baker Mayfield

While there are a number of enticing buy low props in the passing game for Baker Mayfield, its been his legs that have provided betters with the most consistency in '25. The third-year starting QB out of Oklahoma has surpassed this Saturday's 18.5 yards rushing line in exactly 50% of his games this season. Imperative to the likelihood of Mayfield hitting this prop, it should be pointed out that he had a 3-week stretch from Week 7-9 where he didn't log a single carry. This stemmed from a hip injury he sustained in a Week 6 matchup against San Francisco. This adjustment provides us with a more accurate data set upon which to look at, and while the result is technically "unofficial," it reveals Baker clearing this in 8 of 13 games (61.5%). But it's how he's performed as of late that gives me the most confidene here. Baker Mayfield has ran for over 18.5 yards in 5 of his L7 games, a stretch that has seen him record totals of 49 (@ CAR). 42 (NO), 27 (ARI), 19 (@LAR) and 39 (@ BUF) rushing yards. The Panthers have allowed the 4th fewest rushing YPG (13.4) to opposing QBs, but that didn't prevent Mayfield from running all over Carolina on the road just two weeks ago. I can't emphasize enough that Saturday is essentially a playoff game, and nobody lays their life on the line for his team like Baker Mayfield. He will do whatever it takes to scratch and claw for every yard in this game.

Suggested Bet:

Baker Mayfield o18.5 Rush Yards (-111)

Baker Mayfield o10.5 Longest Rush (-115)

RB Bucky Irving

In what will be a battle for NFC South, Saturday's matchup between Carolina and Tampa Bay is setting up to be a physical and highly competitive game that will be won in the trenches. While the Panthers secondary has been solid this season, the same cannot be said for Carolina's run defense, which ranks in the bottom-5 in the league. Opposing teams have consistently made it a point to attack them on the ground, as evidenced by the recent production they have allowed. Zach Charbonnet (110 RY), Christian McCaffery (89 RY), Bijan Robinson (104) and Bucky Irving (71) have all torched the Panthers as of late. The BIG key here is volume. Bucky Irving's rushing attempts line is currently sitting at 15.5, which signals a clear workload expectation. In a win or go home atmosphere, Saturday's game vs Carolina is expected to remain close throughout. As a result, the running game will remain a focal point for the Bucs, and this will keep Bucky involved for the entire 60 minutes. It also goes without saying that both teams will be playing with playoff urgency. The Panthers are surrendering 106.5 YPG on the ground. This sets up another strong spot for Irving to grind out yardage and spring him above Saturday's set total.

Suggested Bet:

Bucky Irving o59.5 Rush Yards (-114)

WR Mike Evans

In order for the Buccaneers to keep their playoff hopes alive they must beat Carolina this Saturday, but win or lose Mike Evans is going to be heavily involved in Tampa Bay's offense. His receiving yards line of 53.5 is nothing short of criminal. Since his return from injury, Baker Mayfield has targeted the future HOF wide receiver 12, 9 and 7 times. He turned 9 targets into 5 catches for 31 yards and a TD. There's no denying the Panthers have a solid pass defense this season, but they are by no means elite. Evans is long overdue for a breakout game, and similar top tier WRs have posted solid yardage totals against CAR this season. This list includes Jaxon Smith-Njigba (72), Chris Olave (84, 104), Puka Nacua (72), Davante Adams (58), Drake London (119), Romeo Doubs (91), Christian Watson (58), Khalil Shakir (88) and George Pickens (168). This is an absolute MUST win for Tampa Bay to remain in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Bucs current streak of 5 straight NFC South division titles is also on the line here. Evans is Baker Mayfield's favorite target, and I expect him to be even moreso today. The Buccaneers are desperate for a win and I look for Mike Evans to absolutely soar at Raymond James Stadium today.

Suggested Bet:

Mike Evans o53.5 Rec Yards (-112)

Mike Evans o4.5 Receptions (-103)

WR Chris Godwin

The books have still not caught up to Chris Godwin yet. He is significantly better than what his prop lines have indicated, and he's getting healthier and more comfortable with every passing week. We've been hammering his yardage over the past few games, but this week I'm targeting his 'Over' 3.5 Receptions line. Godwin has recorded 7, 5, 4, 5 receptions in his last 4 games, as he’s really taken back his role as a key cog in this Tampa Bay offense. The consistency we've gotten out of Godwin is exactly what we want at this number. He also cleared this line the last time he faced Carolina, and while the Panthers’ secondary is solid overall, this sets up perfectly for Godwin's role, which is typically a heavy dose of short-area routes, quick hitters, and out routes...all areas of the field where Godwin thrives and where Baker Mayfield consistently looks his way in the short and intermediate game. With Godwin doing his best work under 10 yards, this becomes a volume-and-role play rather than a matchup concern. When you consider that Jaycee Horn will be preoccupied with Mike Evans for better part of this game, it allows for the Carolina secondary to be exploited. The bottom line here is this is simply too low of a line for a receiver with the talent of Chris Godwin. He is one of my most trusted plays on Saturday.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Godwin o3.5 Receptions (-128)

Best Bet: Buccaneers ML -148
Lean: Over 43.5 (-148)
Score Prediction: Bucs 27, Panthers 17

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Panthers): Tetairoa McMillan +170

Best Play (Buccaneers): Mike Evans +160

First TD Scorer

Best Play (Panthers): Rico Dowdle +650

Best Play (Buccaneers): Sean Tucker +1100

Parlay #1 (Panthers) +388 FD

Bryce Young 15+ Rush Yards

Tetaroia McMillan 60+ Rec Yards

Jalen Coker o16.5 Longest Reception

Parlay #2 (Buccaneers) +455 DK

Baker Mayfield 15+ Rush Yards

Mike Evans 60+ Rec Yards

Chris Godwin 4+ Receptions

Parlay #3 (TD Combo) +550

Tetaroia McMillan Anytime TD

Mike Evans Anytime TD

QB Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold and this Seahawks team will try to lock up the number one seed this week. Since San Francisco beat Seattle in week 1, they’ll own the tiebreaker if they take this game, which would propel them into the number one seed. So, there is plenty on the line here for both teams. The first time these two played in week one, Darnold was not particularly good. He finished throwing 16 of 23 for just 150 yards and no touchdowns. We’ll give him a bit of a pass here, since it was the first game with his new organization. The 49ers defense was much better early in the season before injuries piled up. Sam has had an excellent season throwing for 303 completions on 451 attempts (67% completion rate) for 3,850 yards with a 99.2 passer rating. He’s averaging 8.54 yards per attempt with 25 passing touchdowns to 14 interceptions with only a 5.1% sack rate. The matchup for Darnold is better this time around. Over the last five weeks, San Francisco is generating the 3rd lowest pressure rate (30.1%) and 3rd lowest sack rate (3.5%). Sam ranks 5th in passer grading in a clean pocket this season. The lack of pressure has resulted in allowing big plays too. SF has allowed the 6th most deep completions this season. Darnold and this Seattle offense have been good at stretching the passing game down the field. Darnold ranks 3rd in completions that have gone 20+ yards down the field. This 49ers defense has still done a good job at creating turnover-worthy plays (3.0%), which has been the achilles heel of Darnold in the second half of the season. There’s no doubt that Darnold should be a more effective thrower in this game and I’m expecting him to dissect this defense with time.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 240.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Kenneth Walker III
In week one against this SF defense, Walker only registered 10 carries for 20 yards. He added three catches for four yards too. Walker has been better of late with 151 rushing yards on 26 carries over the past two weeks. He also has five catches out of the backfield over that span. Despite not getting pressure on passing downs, SF has been better against the run. Over the past five weeks, they have allowed the 11th fewest rushing yards per game (110.5), although the 11th highest yards per carry. That’s likely due to their defense being more of a pass funnel. Walker has relied on explosive plays to clear his rushing totals. He owns a 7.8% explosive run rate, which is second (only behind Achane) best among running backs with at least 200 carries. Over the past five, SF has allowed the 9th highest explosive run rate (6.5%). The major concern as a runner is his workload. If they don’t get a big lead or the run game is ineffective, Walker could only see 10-12 carries. That could get him over this line, but it’s walking a tightrope. SF has been susceptible to passes out of the backfield all season, allowing the second most receptions to opposing running backs (5.44) this season. This is the area I’m looking to attack for Walker.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Receptions (-148)

RB Zach Charbonnet
Charbonnet led the backfield in week one against SF with 12 carries for 47 yards and a touchdown. After spending the first half of the season as one of the least efficient running backs, Charb has been much better of late. He’s coming off his best game of the season with 18 carries for 110 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Over the last five weeks, he’s averaging 54.2 yards per game, 4.84 yards per carry and a 8.9% explosive run rate. He also continues to be the redzone back with a 7.1% touchdown rate and 16 red zone touches over the last five. In comparison, Walker only has 7 in that span. In a split backfield, we are getting a much friendlier number on Charbonnet. Charb is averaging 4.2 yards per carry in the trips left formation. Meanwhile, SF is allowing the second highest yards per carry (5.5) to running backs out of that alignment. I think we take his rushing totals here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 40.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Unsurprisingly, Jaxon was incredible week one against this 49ers defense despite the struggles by Darnold. Of Darnold’s 150 passing yards, JSN had 124 of them! He finished the game with 9 catches on 13 targets. JSN has only had one quiet game all season with 70+ receiving yards in 15 of 16 games. On the season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the league in yards (1,709), target rate (32.7%) and is only behind Puka Nacua (among qualified pass catchers) in yards per route run (3.78). With the 49ers being a pass funnel defense, this matchup sets up well for JSN. He ranks 3rd in the league in receptions per game. Meanwhile, San Francisco is allowing the 7th most receptions per game. With explosive plays allowed, his longest reception could also be in play here. I’ll back his receptions in what should be a pass funnel-type game. With or without a good game from Darnold, you know JSN will be fed regardless.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (-140)

WR Rashid Shaheed
We got another dud from Shaheed last week in Carolina. He now has one catch on two targets over the past two weeks. He’s been much more useful in the return game. This could be a matchup where we see a deep connection with Darnold, but he’s not even looking his way. From an offensive standpoint, the trade has been disappointing. In 8 games with the Seahawks, Shaheed has only amassed 14 catches on 25 targets for 186 yards and no touchdowns. He’s also added 7 carries for 64 yards. For perspective, that’s about 23 receiving yards per game and 8 rushing yards. Not something I’m looking to invest in, especially after the last couple of weeks. He’s a fade or pass for me.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE A.J. Barner
Barner continued to operate as the number two option in this passing offense last week, reeling in 3 grabs for 43 yards and a touchdown. With Arroyo out of the picture, the workload is almost all Barner’s. He draws another solid matchup this week against San Francisco. SF is allowing the 2nd most targets (8.75), 10th most receptions (5.94) and 10th most receiving yards (59.0). We’ve seen some nice games against this SF defense recently too - Colston Loveland (6 for 94 and a touchdown), Harold Fanin Jr. (3 for 43 and a touchdown) and Trey McBride (10 for 115 and a touchdown). Even two weeks ago, Tyler Warren had 9 targets against this team. His reception line is too high for me to invest in (4.5), but I’ll take a shot on his receiving yards as the number two pass catcher in this offense.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy continues to play the best football of his career, stacking elite efficiency with volume production. Over his last three games, Purdy has thrown for 901 yards and 9 passing TDs, while adding 4 rushing TDs, accounting for 13 total scores in that stretch. His efficiency has remained intact even as usage has increased, averaging 9.1 YPA and clearing 300 passing yards twice in that span. San Francisco has leaned more heavily on early-down passing, and Purdy has punished defenses that sit in zone. Seattle’s defensive structure plays into Purdy’s strengths. The Seahawks deploy zone coverage on 77.7% of snaps, and against zone this season Purdy averages 8.76 YPA, a +8.6% CPOE, and adds scrambling value when lanes open. While Seattle limits raw passing totals, they’ve allowed steady efficiency and have struggled containing quarterbacks in extended plays. Purdy was efficient but unspectacular in the opener (277 yards), and his current form is significantly sharper.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 1.5 Pass TDs (-170), ‘O’ 2.5 Pass TDs (+215)

RB Christian McCaffery

Christian McCaffrey remains the most reliable workload anchor in football. He’s now handled 399 total touches, scored in six consecutive games, and posted 22.7+ total output in 12 of 16 games. His role has been especially valuable against Seattle, who struggled to limit him in the opener, allowing 142 scrimmage yards on 31 touches, including 9 receptions. San Francisco continues to use McCaffrey as a primary option in both early-down sequencing and scripted red-zone plays. Seattle’s run defense is strong on paper, allowing just 1.65 adjusted YBC/ATT and ranking top-five in rushing yards allowed, but they concede receiving production to backs at one of the higher rates (37.6 receiving YPG, sixth-most). That keeps McCaffrey insulated even if rushing efficiency dips. His early usage, combined with San Francisco’s ability to sustain long drives, gives him multiple scoring paths.

Suggested Play: 

First TD (+370)

WR Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings has quietly become one of the most consistent touchdown scorers in the league. He’s found the end zone in seven of his last eight games, with eight TDs during that span, and continues to command high-leverage snaps despite modest target volume. Jennings plays nearly every down (92% route share last week) and is heavily featured on third downs and in the red zone, where his physical style stands out. Seattle limits efficiency to perimeter receivers, allowing the fewest YPRR (1.48) to wideouts aligned outside, and Jennings was held to 2/16 in the opener. Still, touchdown production has come despite matchup difficulty, largely because of role rather than volume. With defensive attention focused on McCaffrey and Kittle, Jennings remains a preferred option near the goal line.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+875)

WR Ricky Pearsall

Ricky Pearsall returned to full health and immediately reclaimed a major role, posting 5/85 on 8 targets with an 82% route share against Chicago. In his last two healthy games, Pearsall has averaged 7.5 targets and 96.5 receiving yards, showing clear chemistry with Purdy. His route-running and zone awareness are particularly valuable against Seattle’s coverage-heavy scheme. Despite Seattle allowing the fewest receiving YPG and lowest YPR to boundary receivers, Pearsall has already shown he can beat this defense, going for 4/108 in the season opener. His role appears secure, and his usage suggests San Francisco is comfortable attacking Seattle horizontally and vertically with him when coverage shifts toward Kittle and McCaffrey.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 43.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE George Kittle

George Kittle appears on track to return after missing last week, and the matchup immediately favors him. When healthy, Kittle has been dominant, recording 7 TDs, 67+ receiving yards in six straight games, and clearing 4 receptions in nine of 10 appearances. Against zone coverage, he averages 2.57 YPRR with a 25% target per route rate, elite numbers for the position. Seattle has been one of the most generous defenses to tight ends, allowing the fifth-most receiving YPG (65.7) and the fourth-most receptions per game (6.3). Even Kittle’s limited appearance in the opener resulted in a TD before injury, and his presence dramatically alters Seattle’s coverage responsibilities.

Suggested Play:

‘O’ 5.5 Receptions (-120)

This 49ers defense has looked bad and I get it they held Seattle to 13 points in Week 1 but it's a completely different situation. Give me Seattle

Best Bet: Seattle -2.5 -110
Lean: Seattle 'O' 22.5 Pts -180
Score Prediction Seattle 27 49ers 20

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (49ers): Jauan Jennings Anytime TD +155
Jauan Jennings has quietly become one of the most consistent touchdown scorers in the league. He’s found the end zone in seven of his last eight games, with eight TDs during that span, and continues to command high-leverage snaps despite modest target volume. Jennings plays nearly every down (92% route share last week) and is heavily featured on third downs and in the red zone, where his physical style stands out. Seattle limits efficiency to perimeter receivers, allowing the fewest YPRR (1.48) to wideouts aligned outside, and Jennings was held to 2/16 in the opener. Still, touchdown production has come despite matchup difficulty, largely because of role rather than volume. With defensive attention focused on McCaffrey and Kittle, Jennings remains a preferred option near the goal line.

Best Bet (Seahawks): A.J. Barner +180
Barner is coming off back to back games with touchdowns. He gets a matchup to continue scoring this week against a weak middle that SF is rolling out. SF is allowing the 2nd most targets (8.75), 10th most receptions (5.94) and 10th most receiving yards (59.0). They’ve allowed 10 touchdowns on the season to opposing tight ends with 5 of them coming in the last 6 weeks. In the last four weeks, Barner has 5 redzone targets and he’s their primary tush-push option if needed.

1st Touchdown:

Longshot (49ers): Christian McCaffery First TD +370
Christian McCaffrey remains the most reliable workload anchor in football. He’s now handled 399 total touches, scored in six consecutive games, and posted 22.7+ total output in 12 of 16 games. His role has been especially valuable against Seattle, who struggled to limit him in the opener, allowing 142 scrimmage yards on 31 touches, including 9 receptions. San Francisco continues to use McCaffrey as a primary option in both early-down sequencing and scripted red-zone plays. Seattle’s run defense is strong on paper, allowing just 1.65 adjusted YBC/ATT and ranking top-five in rushing yards allowed, but they concede receiving production to backs at one of the higher rates (37.6 receiving YPG, sixth-most). That keeps McCaffrey insulated even if rushing efficiency dips. His early usage, combined with San Francisco’s ability to sustain long drives, gives him multiple scoring paths.

Longshot (Seahawks): Zach Charbonnet +750
Charb is a touchdown machine for this offense. He and Walker split time, but Charb is the primary back used in the redzone. He has 5 touchdowns over the last 6 weeks and scored against this San Francisco defense in week 1. Over the last 5 weeks he owns a 7.1% touchdown rate and 16 red zone touches over the last five. In comparison, Walker only has 7 in that span. Swift is coming off a two touchdown game and Taylor scored the week prior. Of course, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a good candidate here as well, but if I’m betting on a running back to score first, it’s Charbonnet.

Parlay #1 (49ers): +310
Christian McCaffery ATD

Brock Purdy ‘O’ 244.5 Pass Yards
George Kittle ‘O’ 5.5 Receptions

Parlay #2 (Seahawks): +314
Sam Darnold 225+ Passing Yards
Zach Charbonnet TD
Zach Charbonnet 30+ Rushing Yards

QB Jared Goff

Goff is coming off one of the worst games of his season, but this matchup has consistently brought out his ceiling. Chicago’s Cover 3 / Cover 2 heavy structure aligns directly with Goff’s strengths, where he’s been efficient over a large sample and historically aggressive in the red zone. The Bears are allowing 1.9 passing TDs per game, and they were just shredded by Brock Purdy for 303 yards and 3 passing TDs last week. Goff himself torched Chicago earlier this season for 334 yards and 5 TDs, and Detroit has shown a clear tendency to reassert its passing attack after poor offensive showings.

Suggested Play:
'O' 1.5 Pass TDs (-130)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

This sets up as an ideal bounce-back and script-driven spot for Gibbs to open the scoring. Chicago allows the second-most adjusted yards before contact per rush (2.67), which consistently leads to early-drive rushing efficiency, and Detroit has shown a clear tendency to establish Gibbs quickly when facing softer interior fronts. In the first meeting, Gibbs scored and averaged nearly 8 yards per carry, while the Bears were just gashed by Christian McCaffrey for 140 rushing yards and a TD last week. After a sloppy offensive showing against Minnesota, Detroit should lean into its most explosive back early, especially inside the red zone, where Gibbs’ speed and one-cut ability give him a clear edge over Montgomery. If the Lions strike first, Gibbs profiles as the most likely finisher on the opening drive.

Suggested Play:
First TD (+400)

WR Amon Ra St. Brown

St. Brown continues to dominate target share regardless of matchup or game script. He’s seen 8+ targets in 10 straight games, and Chicago is allowing 86.4 receiving yards per game to slot receivers, one of the highest marks in the league. Even with the knee injury lingering, St. Brown has historically played through similar situations and punished this exact defense earlier in the year with a 9/115/3 line. If Detroit scores through the air, St. Brown remains the most likely finisher.

Suggested Play:
Anytime TD (+110)

WR Jameson Williams

Williams is the volatility play in this offense, and that volatility works in his favor against Chicago. The Bears allow a top-7 YPRR to outside receivers, and Williams already burned them for 108 yards and a TD in the first meeting. Even in quieter games, his route depth and usage on shot plays give him consistent big-play opportunity. One successful vertical connection is enough to clear this line, and Detroit has continued to scheme him downfield targets regardless of weekly box score results.

Suggested Play:
'O' 21.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

QB Caleb Williams

The Bears are still fighting for playoff positioning. With a win, they will secure the two seed and home-field advantage through at least the Divisional round. And for their finale, they get the Detroit Lions, who're playing spoiler and will want to make things as rough as possible on Caleb Williams and former Head Coach Ben Johnson. Williams draws a Detroit defence that leans heavily on man coverage, running the second-most man looks in the league at (40.2%) and the third-most Cover 1 at (29.3%). Detroit allows the 11th fewest completions (20.1), middle of the pack in pass attempts (32.5) and passing yards (236.4) per game, yet surrenders the 7th most passing TDs (1.8) per game to opposing QBs. Against man coverage, Williams has struggled with efficiency, posting the 11th lowest completion percentage at (52.5%) with middling yards per attempt (6.37) and a middle-tier QBR (96.2). Similar trends show up versus Cover 1, where his completion rate sits at (55.7%) with average efficiency and a QBR of (90). With Detroit also limiting quarterback rushing yards (16.1 per game), Williams’ path to production relies more on volume and touchdown variance than matchup-driven efficiency.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams o1.5 Passing TDs (-155)

RB D'Andre Swift

D’Andre Swift faces his former Detroit front that suppresses rushing volume and efficiency. They allow the 11th fewest rush attempts (21) and the 13th fewest rushing yards (91.3) per game while also limiting backs in the passing game. Detroit plays slightly more zone (44.6%) than man/gap (36.4%) rush defence, to which they allow 3.98 yards per carry in zone and 4.57 against man/gap. Swift has been efficient against both, averaging 5.33 yards per carry versus zone and 4.21 against man/gap, which gives him some insulation against scheme. Where we've been attacking Swift is through the air lately, but with the Lions in the bottom half of the league, allowing 3.6 receptions on 24.7 receiving yards per game to backs, we'll stick to what Swift can do on the ground. He has logged 50+ rushing yards in five straight games, averaging 79.6 per game, and had 63 with a score in Week 2 against the Lions.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift 50+ Rushing Yards (-130)

WR DJ Moore

I'm just so sick of DJ Moore. Guy has all the opportunity in the world with Rome Odunze out, but turned his four targets into one reception for seven yards in what was a shootout. We aren't going to be suggesting anything for this inconsistent WR, especially in a game that might not mean much at halftime, but we'll still go through the motions. Detroit allows the 12th most receptions (11.7) and the seventh most receiving yards (160.1) to WRs per game. Against man coverage, Moore has posted nine receptions on 18 targets for 89 yards with a (14.6%) target share, showing higher yards per reception (13.2) but reduced efficiency with a 55% catch rate and 1.12 yards per route run compared to his zone splits. His Cover 1 usage dips further, with a 12.4% target share. Moore lines up out wide on (67.6%) of his snaps, where Detroit allows a middle-of-the-pack target rate, the 7th-highest catch rate (65.7%), but the 3rd-lowest yards per reception (11.6). Hopefully Odunze will be back come playoff time, so we don't have to stress Moore moving forward.

Suggested pick:

Pass

WR Luther Burden

Man, is Luther Burden fun to watch. He popped off last week for a career game, catching eight of his nine targets for 138 receiving yards and finding the end zone. This week, he'll have another opportunity to build off that in a go-to role against a weak Lions defence. Against man coverage, he has recorded eight receptions on 11 targets for 118 yards with a 9.9% target share, producing strong yards per reception (15.8) but lower efficiency with a 66.7% catch rate and 1.94 yards per route run than his zone splits. He has been similarly productive against Cover 1, catching seven of nine targets for 120 yards with an 11.1% target share. Like Moore, Burden aligns out wide on 53.9% of his snaps. It wasn't just last week that Burden has popped, as he has logged 60+ receiving yards in three straight, averaging 96.3 receiving yards per game. Expect him to keep it going.

Suggested pick:

Luther Burden 60+ Receiving Yards (-115)

TE Colston Loveland

Like Burden, Loveland popped last week, catching six of nine targets for 94 receiving yards and a TD. This week, he faces a Detroit defence that allows the 7th fewest receptions (4.8) and the 14th fewest receiving yards (51.6) per game to TEs. Against man coverage, Loveland has produced 11 receptions on 14 targets for 117 yards with an 11.6% target share, while his Cover 1 usage increases to a 14.8% share on 10 catches for 108 yards. His efficiency improves in man with a 71.4% catch rate, though his yards per reception (11.4) and yards per route run (1.31) dip slightly compared to his zone splits. With 43.2% of his snaps coming inline and Detroit allowing the second-highest target rate but one of the lowest catch rates to the alignment, this matchup profiles to be a heavy-volume one for Loveland.

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland o3.5 Receptions (-160)

Best Bet: 
Lean: 
Score Prediction

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Bears): Luther Burden TD (+140)

As mentioned, Burden scored for what is shockingly only the second time this season, and first since Week 3 when he went for 100 yards on just three receptions against the Dallas Cowboys. Funny to bring up the Cowboys, who allow the most receiving TDs (1.6) per game to opposing WRs. Who's second behind them? Burden's matchup this week, the Lions, who allow 1.3 receiving TDs per game to opposing WRs.

Best Pick: (Lions) Amon-Ra St Brown Anytime TD (+110)

St. Brown continues to dominate target share regardless of matchup or game script. He’s seen 8+ targets in 10 straight games, and Chicago is allowing 86.4 receiving yards per game to slot receivers, one of the highest marks in the league. Even with the knee injury lingering, St. Brown has historically played through similar situations and punished this exact defense earlier in the year with a 9/115/3 line. If Detroit scores through the air, St. Brown remains the most likely finisher.

1st Touchdown:


Best Pick: (Lions) Jahmyr Gibbs First TD (+400)

This sets up as an ideal bounce-back and script-driven spot for Gibbs to open the scoring. Chicago allows the second-most adjusted yards before contact per rush (2.67), which consistently leads to early-drive rushing efficiency, and Detroit has shown a clear tendency to establish Gibbs quickly when facing softer interior fronts. In the first meeting, Gibbs scored and averaged nearly 8 yards per carry, while the Bears were just gashed by Christian McCaffrey for 140 rushing yards and a TD last week. After a sloppy offensive showing against Minnesota, Detroit should lean into its most explosive back early, especially inside the red zone, where Gibbs’ speed and one-cut ability give him a clear edge over Montgomery. If the Lions strike first, Gibbs profiles as the most likely finisher on the opening drive.

Parlay 1: (Bears) +330 odds on bet365

D'Andre Swift 50+ Rushing Yards

Luther Burden 50+ Receiving Yards

Colston Loveland 4+ Receptions

Parlay 2: (Lions) +255 Fliff
Jahmyr Gibbs ATD
Jared Goff 'O' 254.5 Pass Yards

Jameson Williams 'O' 3.5 Receptions

QB Trey Lance

Lance steps into a conservative, stripped-down offense with the Chargers expected to prioritize health over aggression. Denver ranks 12th-best in passing yards allowed (216.9 YPG) and 7th in passing TDs allowed (1.1 per game), and they still have seeding incentives on the line. Lance’s past spot starts show competence but not volume, especially in low-leverage situations. Expect a run-leaning script, designed rollouts, and limited downfield exposure rather than sustained passing volume.

Suggested Play
'U' 165.5 Pass Yards (-120)

Chargers WRs

With Justin Herbert resting and Keenan Allen potentially exiting early after reaching his incentive, this receiver room lacks both chemistry and explosive intent. Denver allows the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game to WRs (133.1) and has consistently limited perimeter damage. Lance’s tendency to scramble or check down further caps WR scoring equity, making touchdowns and explosive plays unlikely.

Suggested Play:

Pass

RB Jaret Patterson

This is the clearest path to volume on the Chargers’ offense. With Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal likely rested, Patterson is positioned to lead the backfield, regardless of efficiency. He’s already handled 33 carries in limited appearances this season, and Los Angeles has no reason to put unnecessary strain on Lance in a meaningless game. Even against a strong Denver run defense, sheer opportunity keeps this bet attractive.

Suggested Play:
'O' Rush Attempts (look for line close to kickoff)

QB Bo Nix

The mission for Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos is simple this week: win, and you're the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Lose, and they could drop as low as the No. 3 seed. But the Chargers are making it easy on the Broncos this week, as they're sitting star QB Justin Herbert and most of their other starters. So it should be a cakewalk for Nix and the Broncos against this Chargers defence, who, when fully available, allow the 4th fewest completions (18.3), 5th fewest attempts (30.1), and just one passing touchdown per game. The Chargers lean heavily on zone coverage at 76.6% and run the 3rd-most Cover 4 at 23%. Nix has struggled against zone looks, posting the 7th lowest completion percentage (65.4%), 5th lowest yards per attempt (6.48), and a bottom-tier QBR (85.2). His Cover 4 numbers are similar, with a 63.1% completion rate and 6.11 yards per attempt, though his QBR jumps to 96.3. It's pretty difficult to pinpoint how Nix is going to do. He should have success if the Chargers are resting players, but they probably don't want to have him play for too long to avoid risking an injury. Maybe it'll be a lower-volume day for Nix. He's far exceeded his 32.5 pass attempts line in his latest five games, but these circumstances are different.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix u32.5 Pass Attempts (-105)

RB RJ Havey

RJ Harvey couldn't get it done last week against a tough Chiefs defence. He now gets a Chargers front that limits both rushing and receiving production, allowing the 6th fewest rush attempts (19.6), 10th fewest rushing yards (86.1) on the ground, and the 5th fewest receptions (3.4) and the 3rd fewest receiving yards (23.8) through the air per game to opposing backs. Defensively, the Chargers run more zone concept (46.2%) than man/gap (36.9%), to which they allow a 4.15 yards per carry when in zone and a 4.39 yards per carry against man/gap. Harvey was awful against zone concept earlier in the year, averaging under three yards per carry, but he's now brought that up to 3.98, while he is a much better rusher against man/gap, averaging 4.22 yards per carry. Given how this game should go, we can't envision the Broncos needing to use Harvey much in the pass game, and this being the 5th-hardest matchup for RBs in the pass game backs up our belief as well.

Suggested Pick:

RJ Harvey u2.5 Receptions

WR Courtland Sutton

While it may not have translated to much production, Sutton saw another 10 targets, making that four straight games with double-digit targets. This week, he'll get a Chargers secondary allowing the 12th most receptions (10.7) but the 12th fewest receiving yards (132.6) per game. Against zone coverage, Sutton leads the team with an 18.6% target share, catching 55 passes on 87 targets for 724 yards. Sutton sees his efficiency dip with a 61.3% catch rate and 1.66 yards per route run compared to his man splits. He has been effective against Cover 4 this season despite the minimal usage, posting 10 receptions for 141 yards with a 14.6% target share. Sutton aligns out wide on 81.8% of his snaps, where Los Angeles allows a high target rate but one of the lowest catch rates (59.3%), and middle-of-the-pack in terms of yards per reception. It's hard to overlook the 10+ targets in four straight weeks, so we won't. However, we're a little worried about him staying in the game for the full four quarters, so utilizing Sutton early will be key for the Broncos if they want to get a comfortable enough of a lead to give your starters a rest for the second half.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton 1Q Receptions

WR Pat Bryant

We continue to jump back and forth between Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant. But in Bryant's most recent game, Bryant saw 64.6% of the snaps to Franklin's 63.1%. But with Bryant out last week, Franklin saw nearly half the snaps that Lil'Jordan Humphrey saw. So with Bryant back in the mix, he should be the secondary option opposite of Sutton. Against zone, Bryant has caught 24 of 37 targets for 313 receiving yards with only a 9.1% target share. Against Cover 4, Bryant has been more efficient, catching five of his eight targets for 88 receiving yards. Bryant primarily operates out of the slot (58.9%), to which the Chargers are targeted at the 6th lowest rate and allow the 7th lowest catch rate to the alignment. With him returning from injury, the Broncos probably want to give Bryant some run to get back into the swing of things before the playoffs. Bryant has logged 30+ receiving yards in five straight games, averaging 48.2 yards per game.

Suggested pick:

Pat Bryant o26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Evan Engram

Evan Engram faces a tough Chargers defence that allows the 5th fewest receptions (4.2) and receiving yards (42) per game to TEs. Against zone coverage, Engram has recorded 41 receptions on 60 targets for 355 yards with a 13.5% target share, while his role expands significantly against Cover 4, where he leads the team with a 22.1% target share on 15 receptions for 110 yards. He runs 43.7% of his routes inline. With Los Angeles allowing one of the lowest target rates to TEs, and Engram being a vet, we expect him to get the sitting treatment if the Broncos get out to a lead.

Suggested pick:

Pass

Trey Lance will be the QB for the Chargers and that is not good news at all with that offensive line. Broncos are pressuring at the HIGHEST rate in the league since Week 14. They should have no issue containing this offense. 

Best Bet: Under 37.5 -125
Lean: Broncos -13.5 -125
Score Prediction Chargers 10 Broncos 24

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Broncos): RJ Harvey TD (-150)

The odds are a little gross, but this guy can't stop finding the end zone, so why would we go away from him? Harvey has scored a TD in five straight games, totalling six scores. When these two teams squared off in Week 3, JK Dobbins was able to rush for 83 yards on just 11 carries and found the end zone. Now with him gone, it's Harvey's opportunity to run with. The Chargers allow just one TD through the air per game, which is the 3rd lowest rate in the league. However, on the ground, they allow 0.8 TDs per game, which ranks in the top 11 in the NFL.


Best Pick: (Chargers) Trey Lance Anytime TD +290

With the Chargers resting Justin Herbert and operating a simplified, low-risk offense, Trey Lance’s legs are the most reliable scoring mechanism available. Lance has a long track record of being used on designed QB runs, scrambles, and goal-line keepers, especially when the offense lacks established red-zone weapons. Denver’s defense is strong against traditional RB usage, allowing just 73.5 rushing yards per game, which increases the likelihood of the Chargers using misdirection and QB movement near the goal line. If Los Angeles reaches the red zone even once, Lance carries legitimate touchdown equity as both a scrambler and a designed runner.

1st Touchdown:

Best Pick (Chargers) Trey Lance First TD +950

In a game where early offensive rhythm is unlikely and both teams may start conservatively, the first score is more likely to come from a broken play or a designed wrinkle rather than a sustained drive. Lance’s mobility makes him uniquely positioned to capitalize on early red-zone opportunities, especially with Denver keyed in on stopping the run. With Chargers skill players rotated and timing routes de-emphasized, a QB keeper or scramble on an opening drive or early short field presents a realistic path for Lance to open the scoring.

Parlay 1: (Broncos) +300 odds on bet365

Denver Broncos -6.5

RJ Harvey TD

Pat Bryant 30+ Receiving Yards


Parlay 2 (Chargers) +620
Trey Lance ATD
Trey Lance 'U' 165.5 Pass Yards

QB Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson’s status remains the central variable for this matchup after he missed Week 17 with a back injury, and Baltimore again leaned on Tyler Huntley to manage the offense. While Huntley has been efficient as a fill-in, Baltimore’s ceiling against Pittsburgh is materially higher if Jackson is able to suit up. That said, even when healthy, Jackson hasn’t been putting up explosive passing numbers recently. He’s topped 16.6 total output just once in his last seven starts, and that lone spike came against this same Steelers defense in Week 14. In that meeting, Jackson posted 219 passing yards, 1 passing TD, and 43 rushing yards with a rushing score, which highlights how much his value still flows through his legs. Pittsburgh’s defensive approach remains aggressive, leaning into man coverage at a 31% clip against Baltimore. Against man, Jackson has averaged 8.24 YPA with a positive 2.3% CPOE, while adding 53 rushing yards per game on scrambles and designed keepers. The Steelers have allowed the third-most passing yards per game (262.4) to quarterbacks and continue to give up chunk plays when coverage breaks down. If Jackson is cleared, Baltimore will likely stress Pittsburgh horizontally early and rely on Lamar’s legs to extend drives rather than asking him to push volume downfield.

Suggested Play:
'O' 28.5 Rush Yards (-120)

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry is coming off one of the most dominant performances by a running back in recent memory, and the Ravens have shown zero hesitation leaning fully into him when the game script allows it. Over his last two games, Henry has logged 54 carries for 344 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns, including a 36-carry, 216-yard, 4-TD eruption last week. More importantly, Baltimore has committed to making him the focal point regardless of quarterback situation, insulating the offense from volatility under center. The Steelers present a more disciplined front than Green Bay, but the matchup is still workable. Pittsburgh allows 2.31 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, and while they limit explosive runs, they’ve struggled with sustained physicality over four quarters. Henry already handled 25 carries for 94 yards against this defense in early December, and that was before Baltimore fully leaned into a run-heavy identity. With playoff positioning and rivalry stakes in play, Henry’s volume projection remains among the safest on the slate.

Suggested Play:
First TD Scorer (+360)
'O' 19.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers has quietly re-emerged as a consistent scoring threat after a long drought earlier in the season. He’s now scored in three straight games, and his role has remained intact regardless of who’s at quarterback. With Huntley under center last week, Flowers ran routes on 96% of dropbacks and saw a 25% target share, signaling that Baltimore’s passing design still funnels through him on critical downs. Pittsburgh’s coverage tendencies strongly favor Flowers’ skill set. Against man coverage, he’s averaging 2.64 yards per route run with a 30% target per route rate, elite marks that explain his prior success against this defense. The Steelers allow the second-most receptions per game (9.3) to perimeter receivers and surrendered 8/124 receiving to Flowers in this matchup just one month ago. His route versatility and ability to win quickly off the line give him a reliable path to production even in a lower-volume passing environment.

Suggested Play
Anytime TD (+175)

TE Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews’ recent box scores mask a matchup that still tilts in his favor. He’s failed to clear 28 receiving yards in four straight games, but usage hasn’t completely evaporated, and Pittsburgh remains one of the most vulnerable defenses in the league against tight ends. The Steelers allow the third-most receiving yards per game (67.2) and the second-most receptions per game (6.4) to the position, consistently struggling to pass off routes in man coverage. Against man looks specifically, Andrews averages 2.00 YPRR with a 23% target per route rate, and Baltimore has historically attacked Pittsburgh between the hashes in high-leverage spots. While Isaiah Likely continues to siphon snaps, Andrews still profiles as the primary red-zone tight end, especially if Lamar Jackson returns and Baltimore leans on quick-hitting concepts near the goal line.

Suggested Play:
'O' 28.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

QB Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers will host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football. The winner claims the AFC North and a spot in the playoffs. The Steelers took the first matchup in Baltimore. Rodgers is averaging 201.9 passing yards per game, 6.71 YPA, a 65.6% completion rate and a 95.3 QB rating. He’s thrown 23 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 13th worst in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 9th most passing yards per game since week 10 (253.9). In the first matchup, Rodgers completed 23 of 34 passes for 284 passing yards, a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown. This was his best performance of the season. This time around, he’ll be playing without DK Metcalf due to his suspension. He threw for just 168 passing yards against the Browns last week without him. Since week 10, the Ravens have the 4th highest pressure rate (44.1%). Rodgers averages 6.30 YPA, a 44% completion rate and a 73.3 QB rating when pressured. The Ravens run single-high at the 4th highest rate (59.5%) and man coverage at the 6th highest rate (32.8%). In their first H2H matchup, the Ravens played single-high at a 51.4% rate and man coverage at a 37.1% rate. Rodgers averages 6.39 YPA and a 61.8% completion rate against single-high. He averages 5.92 YPA and a 49.2% completion rate against man. I think the biggest story line here is no DK, I lean under in what I expect to be a defensive game.

Suggested Pick:

Under 210.5 Passing Yards (-116)

RB Jaylen Warren/Kenneth Gainwell

Gainwell had a 67.7% snap rate to Warren’s 32.3% rate last week. This is partially due to playing from behind, as Warren still had 12 rush attempts to Gainwell’s 7. A similar trend remained true the prior week, with Warren taking 14 carries to Gainwell’s 9. Gainwell also had a 71.4% route participation rate to Warren’s 11.9% last week. He’s run more routes than Warren in 4 straight weeks (by a wide margin). Opportunity will likely be game script dependent, with Warren the preferred runner and Gainwell the preferred passing down back. The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs in this game. They’ll face a Ravens defense that ranks 6th best in EPA/Rush allowed on the season and since week 10 they have allowed the 4th fewest rushing yards per game (90.5). They have been specifically strong against zone concept, allowing the fewest YPC (3.18) and the 3rd lowest success rate (41.8%) since week 10. 64% of Warren’s rush attempts have been zone concept while 60.6% of Gainwell’s have been zone. Warren averages 4.54 YPC in this concept to Gainwell’s 4.35. In the receiving game, the Ravens have allowed the 5th most receiving yards and the 4th most receptions to RB. With the state of the offensive weapons for the Steelers, I lean over on Gainwell’s receiving.

Suggested Pick:

Gainwell Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Warren Under 48.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Scottie Miller, Adam Thielen, Calvin Austin

Last week in the first game without DK Metcalf (2-game suspension), Valdes-Scantling and Thielen had equivalent 83.3% route participation rates. Scottie Miller was 3rd at a 69% rate. Scottie Miller and Valdes-Scantling primarily lined up out wide (82.8% and 85.7% respectively), while Thielen primarily lined up from the slot (80%). Calvin Austin was absent from this game with a hamstring injury but is off the injury report for this game. Austin has lined up in the slot on 52% of his routes over the course of the season. I’d expect him to take some work away from Thielen and Miller more so than Valdes-Scantling, but who knows with Arthur Smith, could see them all split time. The Ravens have allowed the 3rd most receiving yards per game to WR on the season. Since week 10, they have allowed the 4th most receiving yards per game to wide alignment (128), compared to the 15th most to the slot (72.4). Hard to put much emphasis on schematic splits as we don’t have a sample size with this group of receivers. If we’re forced to pick one of these guys, my money is on Valdes-Scantling to produce as he was targeted a team high 9 times last week and he primarily lines up out wide, where the Ravens are weaker. He’s also their top deep threat, so I like the ladder as a longshot.

Suggested Pick:

Valdes-Scantling Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

50+ Receiving Yards (+270)

60+ Receiving Yards (+425)

70+ Receiving Yards (+630)

TE Pat Freiermuth/Jonnu Smith

Darnell Washington broke his forearm last week and was put on IR after surgery. We’ll have a more condensed TE rotation for the Steelers. Freiermuth ran a route on 64.3% of dropbacks last week, compared to Jonnu’s 26.2%. Jonnu had fallen out of favor the past couple of weeks so I wouldn’t be surprised if Freiermuth gets the bulk of the work this week. He’ll face a Ravens defense that has allowed the 10th fewest receiving yards, 8th fewest receptions and 3rd fewest receiving TDs to TE. Freiermuth was targeted just 3 times, catching 2 of them for 9 yards in the first head-to-head matchup. No DK could mean more volume. Freiermuth led the team in receiving last week without him, catching 3 of 5 targets for 63 yards against the Browns. On the season, Freiermuth averages 1.66 YPRR and 18% TPRR. The Ravens run single-high at the 4th highest rate (59.5%) and man coverage at the 6th highest rate (32.8%). In their first H2H matchup, the Ravens played single-high at a 51.4% rate and man coverage at a 37.1% rate. Freiermuth averages 1.07 YPRR and 19% TPRR against single-high this season. Against man, he averages 1.17 YPRR and 15% TPRR. Despite a likely increased role, I just don’t have a lot of faith in this offense and the matchup isn’t great.

Suggested Pick:

Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

I mean the Ravens have a chance to go to the playoffs with a win and who doesn't want to see Henry in the Playoffs especially since we don't have the Lions,Chiefs and possibly the Buccaneers. I think Ravens win this game by 10

Best Bet: Ravens -2.5 -130
Lean: Ravens 'O' 22.5 Points -120
Score Prediction Ravens 27 Steelers 17

Anytime TD Picks

Kenneth Gainwell (Steelers) +195

Gainwell has outsnapped Warren in 4 straight weeks and his route participation rate is elite for a RB. The Ravens allow the 5th most receiving yards and 4th most receptions to RB. With DK still suspended, I expect Rodgers to look at Gainwell a ton as a safety net. He also has the opportunity to get attempts near the goal line, Gainwell's my favorite to score in a must win game.


Zay Flowers (Ravens) +175

Zay Flowers has quietly re-emerged as a consistent scoring threat after a long drought earlier in the season. He’s now scored in three straight games, and his role has remained intact regardless of who’s at quarterback. With Huntley under center last week, Flowers ran routes on 96% of dropbacks and saw a 25% target share, signaling that Baltimore’s passing design still funnels through him on critical downs. Pittsburgh’s coverage tendencies strongly favor Flowers’ skill set. Against man coverage, he’s averaging 2.64 yards per route run with a 30% target per route rate, elite marks that explain his prior success against this defense. The Steelers allow the second-most receptions per game (9.3) to perimeter receivers and surrendered 8/124 receiving to Flowers in this matchup just one month ago. His route versatility and ability to win quickly off the line give him a reliable path to production even in a lower-volume passing environment.

1st Touchdown:

Kenneth Gainwell (Steelers) +950

Same analysis as anytime, the coaching staff really trusts this guy as he's a proven winner after playing with the Eagles. Elite role in the receiving game and also has opportunities in the running game. Don't trust any of the other Steelers weapons.


Derrick Henry (Ravens) +360

Derrick Henry is coming off one of the most dominant performances by a running back in recent memory, and the Ravens have shown zero hesitation leaning fully into him when the game script allows it. Over his last two games, Henry has logged 54 carries for 344 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns, including a 36-carry, 216-yard, 4-TD eruption last week. More importantly, Baltimore has committed to making him the focal point regardless of quarterback situation, insulating the offense from volatility under center. The Steelers present a more disciplined front than Green Bay, but the matchup is still workable. Pittsburgh allows 2.31 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, and while they limit explosive runs, they’ve struggled with sustained physicality over four quarters. Henry already handled 25 carries for 94 yards against this defense in early December, and that was before Baltimore fully leaned into a run-heavy identity. With playoff positioning and rivalry stakes in play, Henry’s volume projection remains among the safest on the slate.

Parlay #1 (Steelers) +814

Aaron Rodgers Under 200.5 Passing Yards
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 50+ Receiving Yards


Parlay #2 (Ravens) +395

Derrick Henry ATD
Lamar Jackson 'O' 28.5 Rush Yards
Derrick Henry 'O' 19.5 Rush Attempts