QB Jalen Hurts

Well, we nailed the Eagles' passing offence, figuring it out last week, but we didn't anticipate it resulting in a loss. Hurts went 23/38 for 280 passing yards against a tough defence. This week, he gets the New York Giants, who allow the 6th-most completions (24.6), the 4th-most pass attempts (38.2) and the 10th-most passing yards (249.2) per game to opposing QBs. The Giants run the 2nd-most man coverage (42.7%), specifically Cover 1, which they run at the second-highest rate (37.4%). Against man coverage, Hurts has the 10th most passing yards (65.2) per game, the 11th-highest yards per attempt (7.58) and the 6th-highest QBR (128.6) of all QBs with at least 20 dropbacks against the coverage this season. Against Cover 1, Hurts has the 19th most passing yards (39), the 7th-highest yards per attempt (8.86) and the 3rd-highest QBR (126.1) of all QBs to face at least 15 dropbacks against the coverage. If you remember from last week, Hurts faced the Broncos, who ran the 2nd-most man coverage as of last week. So, it's safe to assume we can expect Hurts to have similar production as we saw last week (280 passing yards and two TDs) against a team that runs the same amount of man coverage, but doesn't have the same high-profile defence.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts o196.5 Passing Yards (-110)

 

RB Saquon Barkley

So the production hasn't been there for Saquon all season, but now his opportunities are starting to diminish. Barkley saw just six rush attempts last week, turning that into 30 rushing yards – his lowest total as an Eagle. But this week, he faces his former team, the Giants, who allow the 12th-fewest rush attempts (19) but the 8th-highest rushing yards (106.6) per game. These numbers result in the Giants allowing a high yards per carry, ranking 4th-highest with an average of 5.34. The Giants run most of their rush defence snaps in man/gap (49.6%), to which they allow the highest yards per carry (6.42) in that coverage this season. This isn't fantastic for Barkley, as he averages 2.33 yards per carry against the coverage this season, which is 4.02 yards per carry difference from last year. Against the Giants last season, Barkley got his revenge, rushing for 176 yards on 17 attempts and a TD. He added two receptions and 11 receiving yards through the air as well. With a Super Bowl on their mind, the Eagles made the wise decision to rest Saquon for Week 18, instead of pursuing the NFL rushing record. That should remain on his mind, with now a new fire under him after struggling through the first five weeks of the season. I'm going back on my word when saying he needs to prove it to me before I back him again; however, I'm a sucker for a good narrative.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley TD (-150)

Saquon Barkley 2+ TDs (+333)

 

WR AJ Brown

Considering he mostly lined up against Pat Surtain, Brown did a pretty good job, catching five of his seven targets for 43 receiving yards. This week, he gets the Giants' defence, who are allowing the most receptions (14.8) and the second most receiving yards (184.8) to opposing WRs per game. With the Giants running so much man coverage, it should line up as a similar matchup as last week for him, except, you know, without the reigning DPOY covering him. Against man coverage this season, Brown has caught eight of 13 targets for 87 receiving yards and one TD. That leads the Eagles in receiving yards and yards after catch against the coverage. But this isn't new for Brown, as he had the second-highest PFF grade against the coverage last season, catching 35 of 51 targets for 538 receiving yards – the most receiving yards against man coverage in the NFL. While he won't be against Surtain this week, he will regularly line up against Paulson Adebo. It hasn't been a fantastic season for Adebo, as he has allowed 20 receptions on 31 targets for 207 receiving yards. That works out to be a 65% catch rate and 51.8 receiving yards allowed per game to the position. Against outside WRs, the Giants are targeted at the 4th-highest rate, and allow the 7th-highest catch rate (69%), but the 7th-lowest yards per reception (12.1). With Brown's targets still sky high – 33 in his last four games – his receptions line is a little too low at 4.5.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown o4.5 Receptions (-140)

 

WR Devonta Smith

This matchup might be better for DeVonta Smith. Smith is coming off a massive day, catching eight of his 10 targets for 114 receiving yards. While Brown has historically been the better receiver against man coverage, Smith has caught up to him this season, catching seven of 11 targets for 74 receiving yards. But what we like best in this game for Smith in this matchup is his deep threat ability. I know, when you look at Brown and Smith, you figure that Brown is the deep threat, especially considering where these receivers line up: Brown on the outside and Smith in the slot. However, against man coverage, it's actually Smith who earns the higher aDoT at 11.2 compared to Brown's 8.3. That's nearly a three-yard difference in terms of targets. The Giants aren't great against outside WRs in terms of catch rate and receiving yards, but the opposite can be said about New York against slot receivers. The Giants allow the 5th-lowest catch rate (61.4%), but they allow the 8th-highest yards per reception (11.3) per game. Last week, against a man-heavy team, Smith had two receptions that went 20+ yards, and has a 20+ yard longest reception in three of five weeks.

Suggested pick:

DeVonta Smith o20+ Longest Recpetion (-135)

 

TE Dallas Goedert

Goedert just can't stop finding the end zone, scoring in four TDs in his last three games. Last week, he caught three of his seven targets for just 19 receiving yards. This week, Goedert gets the Giants' defence, who are targeted at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL, but allow the 12th-fewest receptions (5.0) and 7th-fewest receiving yards (37.2) per game to opposing TEs. Goedert lines up in the slot/in-line on 90.2% of his routes. Against slot/in-line receivers, the Giants allow the 5th-lowest catch rate (63.1%). For Goedert to clear his line of 3.5 receptions, he would need to see at least seven targets. He has seen seven targets in two of his four games this season; however, in a game where the Eagles are seven-point favourites against a team that struggles the most against opposing WRs, it might be a slow night for Goedert.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert u3.5 Receptions (+125)

QB Jaxson Dart

Jaxson Dart has quietly become one of the more aggressive young dual-threat QBs in the league, and this week sets up for another high-volume rushing performance. The Eagles generate pressure on 40.5% of dropbacks (fourth in the NFL), and Dart’s production splits under pressure tell the story — his CPOE drops from +5.1% to +1.7%, and his YPA falls from 5.56 to 4.57 when the pocket collapses. Against a front anchored by Jalen Carter and Haason Reddick, Dart will be flushed out often and forced to extend plays with his legs. Through his first two starts, he’s averaged 7.5 designed rushes per game and 54.5 rushing yards, including a long of 23 against New Orleans. The Eagles’ secondary limits explosive downfield opportunities, ranking top five in yards allowed per coverage snap (4.52), which should push Dart toward more scrambles and bootlegs. Expect New York to scheme multiple RPO and rollout looks to simplify reads against Philly’s two-high shells. With his decisiveness and willingness to run rather than take sacks, Dart should clear 32.5 rushing yards comfortably in what will likely be a heavy-pressure environment.

Suggested Play:

'O' 36.5 Rush Yards (-120)

 

RB Cam Skattebo

Cam Skattebo has been the Giants’ offensive stabilizer, leading the team in both total touches and yards after contact over the past three games. Against a Philadelphia defense that allows just 97.6 rushing yards per game (10th) but the eighth-most receiving yards per game to RBs (41.0), his biggest value comes as a checkdown option. The Eagles have struggled to contain backs on angle routes and quick swings — Kyren Williams posted 2/18/1 receiving and logged another 4 targets in Week 3, mostly against zone looks. Philadelphia’s linebackers sit deep to protect against intermediate crossers, leaving plenty of space underneath. Skattebo has averaged 3.2 yards per route run when lined up wide or in the flat, and his target share on early downs has grown to 15% since Tyrone Tracy’s injury. Expect Brian Daboll to rely on Skattebo in the passing game to slow down Philly’s rush, especially with Jaxson Dart’s internal clock still developing. If the Giants trail, this bet looks even better — Skattebo has averaged 5.8 targets per game when New York is behind by a touchdown or more.

Suggested Play:

'O' 2.5 Receptions (+130)

 

WR Darius Slayton

Despite limited production last week, Darius Slayton remains New York’s best vertical threat. Before exiting with a hamstring tweak against the Saints, he accounted for two deep targets (20+ air yards), including one that should’ve gone for a long touchdown. Slayton still owns a 32.5% share of the team’s air yards and averages 15.4 yards per target against man coverage. Philadelphia, while strong up front, has been surprisingly leaky on the boundary — their corners have allowed the seventh-most completions of 20+ yards to perimeter receivers this season. The Eagles use man coverage on 21.6% of snaps, and Slayton has historically done his best work versus single coverage, posting 2.3 yards per route run in those looks this year. With Malik Nabers out, Slayton’s route tree has shifted — 39% of his routes are now go or post routes. If he plays through his hamstring issue, he’s the only receiver on this roster capable of testing Philly deep. Given Dart’s growing comfort on play-action rollouts and Slayton’s 4.39 speed, one clean pocket is all it takes for this to cash.

Suggested Play:

'O' 21.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

 

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

 

Philadelphia’s zone-heavy coverage is a nightmare for players like Wan’Dale Robinson who rely on underneath separation rather than deep routes. The Eagles are allowing the fewest yards per route run to slot receivers (.84) and the second-fewest receiving yards per game (39.4) from that alignment. Robinson has run 70% of his routes from the slot, and his average depth of target (ADOT) sits at just 4.1 yards. His longest catch in any of the last three games is 13 yards. The Eagles’ scheme under Vic Fangio prioritizes minimizing yards after the catch — they’ve allowed only 3.4 YAC per reception to slot receivers, the fifth-lowest in football. Expect Robinson’s receptions to come on quick outs, bubble screens, and short slants designed to move the chains rather than stretch the field. Unless he breaks multiple tackles on a fluke play, he’s unlikely to exceed 17.5 yards on any single grab.

Suggested Play:

'O' 17.5 Yard Longest Reception (-135)

 

TE Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson’s chemistry with Jaxson Dart has quietly become the focal point of New York’s red zone passing attack. Over the past two games, Johnson has led the Giants in first-read share (26.2%), red-zone target share (40%), and routes run inside the 10-yard line. Despite averaging just 6.6 yards per reception, his size (6’6”, 259 lbs) and box-out ability make him a clear end-zone weapon. The Eagles have been strong against tight ends overall (third-fewest yards per game allowed), but the one soft spot has been near the goal line — they’ve conceded three touchdowns to TEs in the last four games, all on seam or stick concepts against Cover 6. Dart has shown a tendency to look for Johnson on half-roll flood designs, particularly when flushed right. Given Philadelphia’s pressure rate and tendency to collapse pockets quickly, those red-zone improvisations play directly into Johnson’s skill set. 

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+360)

The Eagles are coming off a disappointing loss to the Broncos but coming into this one Barkley will be healthy and they will be playing the Giants without Malik Nabors who suffered a season ending ACL injury in Week 3. In the 1 game without him this year they lost to the Saints 14-26. Yeah the damn Saints beat them by double digits. Prior to last week Hurts had won 18 consecutive games and I expect him to bounce back and crush this Giants team tonight. Now in terms of the total. I think Barkley will run a lot of the clock and the Eagles generating such a pressure rate on defense is concerning for Rookie Jaxson Dart. Give me the Eagles to cover the -6.5 and the Giants to go under 17.5 total points.

Best Bet: Eagles -6.5 -133
Lean: Giants 'U' 17.5 -150
Score Prediction Eagles 24 Giants 10

Anytime TD Picks

 

Best Pick: (Eagles): Saquon Barkley TD (-150)

For how bad he's been this season, Barkley has scored a TD in four of five games. The Giants are averaging a TD allowed per game to opposing RBs, which is the 5th-highest in the league. Saquon has the breakaway speed to burst out a long run to the end zone, especially against his former team, who's allowing such a high yards per carry against their favourite coverage.

 

Best Bet: (Giants) Theo Johnson +360

Theo Johnson’s chemistry with Jaxson Dart has quietly become the focal point of New York’s red zone passing attack. Over the past two games, Johnson has led the Giants in first-read share (26.2%), red-zone target share (40%), and routes run inside the 10-yard line. Despite averaging just 6.6 yards per reception, his size (6’6”, 259 lbs) and box-out ability make him a clear end-zone weapon. The Eagles have been strong against tight ends overall (third-fewest yards per game allowed), but the one soft spot has been near the goal line — they’ve conceded three touchdowns to TEs in the last four games, all on seam or stick concepts against Cover 6. Dart has shown a tendency to look for Johnson on half-roll flood designs, particularly when flushed right. Given Philadelphia’s pressure rate and tendency to collapse pockets quickly, those red-zone improvisations play directly into Johnson’s skill set. 

 

1st TD Picks

 

Best Pick: (Eagles) DeVonta Smith First TD (+1200)

Smith has only one TD all season. That came late in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3. But diving into the stats, when the Eagles decide to throw in the red zone, Smith has earned the most end zone targets at two. While it's not a lot, it should say something that he is commanding more targets than Brown, who's the big, physical WR who you should trust to win a jump ball. Smith has a 27.7% first-read target so far this season.

 

Best Bet: (Giants) Cam Skattebo +680

New York’s offense under Jaxson Dart has leaned on condensed formations and power-zone concepts in the opening drives of games. They’ve opened each of their last two contests with 7+ rushes on their first possession, and Dart himself has used play-action off that look to set up Skattebo screens and draws. Given that Skattebo averages 3.4 yards after contact per carry and has forced a missed tackle on 24% of his rushes this season, he’s the most likely Giant to punch one in first if they get near the red zone early. Expect Brian Daboll to test Philadelphia’s interior with Skattebo in the opening sequence — and if the Giants’ first drive crosses midfield, he has every chance to finish it off.

Parlay 1: (Eagles) +220 odds on bet365

Philadelphia Eagles ML

Saquon Barkley TD

DeVonta Smith 50+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Giants): +560

Cam Skattebo ATD

Wan'Dale Robinson 'U' 43.5 Receiving Yards

Jaxson Dart 'O' 36.5 Rush Yards

QB Justin Fields

Fields is averaging 188.5 passing yards per game, 7.11 YPA, a 67% completion rate and 4 total passing TDs. He’s averaging 7.8 rushing attempts for 51 yards on the ground and 3 rushing TDs. He’ll face the Broncos in London, who are 7^th in EPA/Pass allowed. The Broncos have the 6^th highest blitz rate (34.2%) and the highest sack rate (10.6%). Fields is averaging 8.20 YPA, and a 56.7% completion rate against the blitz. That compares to 6.68 YPA and 71.1% completion rate when not blitzed. The Broncos have played man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL this season (43.7%). They were top 5 in man frequency last year. Fields has faced man coverage on just 21 of his dropbacks, where he’s averaging 8.59 YPA, a 76.5% completion rate and all 4 of his TDs. Fields had negative splits against man coverage last season, so I’m not buying this season’s trend in a short sample size. In terms of the rushing matchup, the Broncos have limited every QB they have faced to single digit rushing yards. That includes Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and Daniel Jones, all mobile QBs. I’m fading Fields this week.

Suggested Pick:

Under 241.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-114)

 

RB Breece Hall

In Hall’s first game post Braelon Allen injury, Breece handled 14 of the 15 RB rush attempts. Isaiah Davis stepped in as the pass catching back, running 23 routes to Breece Hall’s 19. Breece was productive, rushing for 113 yards and catching 4 of 5 targets for 42 receiving yards. He had the one blemish fumbling in the red zone, but Breece looks healthy with a sizable role. He’s averaging 70.2 rushing yards per game on 5.32 YPC. He’s number 1 in the league in explosive run rate at 16.7%. He has yet to score a TD, but I expect his time to come soon. He’ll face a Broncos defense that is 6^th best in EPA/Rush allowed and has allowed the 5^th fewest rushing yards per game. The Broncos are allowing 1.56 yards before contact per attempt, but have struggled with tackling, allowing the 5^th most yards after contact per attempt (2.58). They have sizable splits between man/gap concepts and zone concepts. They are allowing a 57.4% success rate and 5.06 YPC against man/gap, compared to 3.5 YPC and a 42.1% success rate against zone. 78.8% of Breece Hall’s attempts have been zone concept, so this may be a tough matchup from a schematic perspective. As 7.5-point underdogs, game script could be a negative factor as well. The Broncos have been susceptible to backfields in the receiving game, as they have allowed the 3^rd most receiving yards per game and rank 2^nd worst in EPA/Pass allowed to opposing backfields. I would fade his rushing but like his receiving.

Suggested Pick:

Under 67.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Anytime TD (+165)

 

WR Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson is averaging 76.4 receiving yards per game, 2.10 YPRR and he’s been targeted on 25% of his routes. His 44.7% 1^st-read rate is the highest in the entire league. This will be a tough matchup against Pat Surtain and the Broncos elite passing defense. They are 7^th best in EPA/Pass allowed and have allowed the 8^th fewest passing yards per game. Besides Quentin Johnston, no WR1 has more than 43 receiving yards in this matchup through 5 weeks. The Broncos have the 6^th highest blitz rate (34.2%) and the highest sack rate (10.6%). Garrett is averaging an insane 3.51 YPRR, 38% TPRR and a 56.7% 1^st-read rate against the blitz. The Broncos have played man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL this season (43.7%). They were top 5 in man frequency last year. Wilson also has insane positive splits against man this season, averaging 3.96 YPRR, 32% TPRR and a 44.4% 1^st-read rate. He had slightly positive splits against man last season. Despite the positive splits from a schematic perspective, I’m fading Wilson here as Surtain is on another level compared to the matchups against the Dolphins and Cowboys last 2 weeks.

Suggested Pick:

Under 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Josh Reynolds

Reynolds has played 3 weeks and has the 3^rd highest route rate (75%) behind Mason Taylor and Garrett Wilson. He has caught 4 of his 6 total targets for 32 receiving yards. He had his most productive game of the season last week against the Cowboys, catching 3 of 4 targets for 29 receiving yards. The Broncos are 7^th best in EPA/Pass allowed and have allowed the 8^th fewest passing yards per game. We don’t have much other data to go off of with such little target share, but this could be a sneaky spot due to the Pat Surtain on Garrett Wilson effect. We have seen secondary and tertiary receiving options pick up some volume in this matchup throughout the season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Reynolds build off his best game of the season this week in a losing game script (7.5-point underdogs).

Suggested Pick:

Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

 

TE Mason Taylor

Through 3 weeks, the Jets rookie tight end ran a route on 71.8% of dropbacks but averaged just 14.3 receiving yards per game. He was targeted on just 12% of his routes. Week 4 was his breakout week. He caught 5 of 7 targets for 65 receiving yards. He was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate and target share at 33.3% and 25.9% respectively.  Taylor built on that momentum in week 5, catching 9 of 12 targets for 65 yards against the Cowboys. He was targeted on 27% of his routes and was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.8%. The only TE to have any success against the Broncos this season was Tyler Warren, who caught 4 receptions for 79 yards. The Broncos have played man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL this season (43.7%). They were top 5 in man frequency last year. Taylor has run 24 routes, catching 2 of 3 targets for -3 receiving yards against man. The Broncos also have the 6^th highest blitz rate (34.2%). Taylor has ran 45 routes against the blitz, catching 2 of 4 targets for 35 yards. Small sample sizes to put too much emphasis on these negative splits, but I feel confident that it’s not a smash spot like last week. Expecting Taylor to come back to earth this week.

Suggested Pick:

Under 4.5 Receptions (-165)

 

Best Bet: 
Lean: 
Score Prediction 

Anytime TD Picks

 

1st TD Picks

QB Dillon Gabriel

Dillon Gabriel showed poise and rhythm in his first NFL start, delivering two touchdown passes and protecting the football despite a relentless Minnesota front. His quick decision-making was on display, but the challenge now intensifies against a Pittsburgh defense that blitzes on 37.3% of dropbacks—fourth-highest in the league. Under pressure last week, Gabriel averaged just 3.08 yards per attempt and a -18.2% completion percentage over expected, underscoring how much pocket disruption can alter his efficiency. Fortunately, Pittsburgh’s aggressiveness has come at a cost: the Steelers are allowing 282.8 passing yards per game, second-most in the NFL, and have surrendered multiple touchdown passes in every outing. Gabriel’s comfort in quick-game concepts and play-action rollouts should help him neutralize pressure while creating chunk plays to his tight ends and backs. Expect Cleveland to lean on his accuracy in the short and intermediate windows to attack Pittsburgh’s linebackers in coverage.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+395)

 

RB Quinshon Judkins

Quinshon Judkins continues to establish himself as the Browns’ offensive engine, handling 23 of the team’s 32 rushing attempts in Week 5 and eclipsing 100 yards on the ground for the first time in his career. His violent running style and sharp vision between the tackles have allowed him to generate consistent yardage even behind a struggling offensive line. Judkins has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over his last three games and forced a missed tackle on over a quarter of his attempts. Against a Steelers defense giving up 4.0 yards per carry and the 11th-most rushing yards per game, his downhill approach should wear on the front seven. Pittsburgh’s run-stop win rate ranks middle of the pack, and their linebackers have been caught out of position on zone runs—a concept that Cleveland employs heavily. With a clear edge in volume and short-yardage work, Judkins remains the Browns’ most likely source of offensive scoring production.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+120)

 

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy’s chemistry with Gabriel is still developing, but the matchup with Pittsburgh presents an opportunity for a rebound. Despite modest production last week, Jeudy’s route participation remained elite at 89%, and his quickness against off coverage could expose the Steelers’ reliance on single-high safety looks. Pittsburgh’s secondary has been one of the league’s most permissive, allowing the third-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts and regularly giving up explosive plays off crossing routes and double moves. Jeudy has historically fared well against man-heavy coverage schemes, using his sharp footwork to separate at the top of routes. With Cleveland likely to face multiple third-and-medium situations, look for Gabriel to funnel intermediate targets toward Jeudy, who remains the Browns’ best separator and route technician.

Suggested Play:

'O' 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Isaiah Bond

Isaiah Bond has quickly become a focal point of the Browns’ passing attack since Cedric Tillman landed on injured reserve, earning a 21% target share and showcasing his ability to stretch the field vertically. His speed threatens defenses on deep posts and seams, and the Steelers’ coverage tendencies could leave those windows open. Pittsburgh runs single-high coverage on 63.4% of snaps and has been repeatedly burned by vertical threats, giving up the second-most receptions per game and multiple completions of 20+ yards in every contest. Bond’s ability to create after the catch also adds to his upside, particularly on designed motion routes and play-action shots. With Gabriel showing a willingness to attack deep zones when the pocket holds, Bond could strike for one explosive play that breaks this prop wide open.

Suggested Play:

'O' 15.5 Yard Longest Reception (-115)

 

TE David Njoku

David Njoku’s connection with Dillon Gabriel was instant, leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards while adding a touchdown in Week 5. His athleticism and physicality make him a mismatch against linebackers, and the Steelers’ defense has consistently struggled to contain athletic tight ends working across the middle. Pittsburgh’s coverage unit allows the ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends and an 11.8 yards-per-reception average, largely due to blown assignments in their Cover 1 and Cover 3 looks. Njoku has run a route on nearly 80% of dropbacks since Gabriel took over, and his 24% target share in the red zone makes him the quarterback’s primary scoring outlet near the goal line. Expect Cleveland to use play-action and bootleg concepts to get Njoku isolated against slower coverage defenders, creating prime touchdown opportunities.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+210)

 

Best Bet: 
Lean: 
Score Prediction 

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Browns): Quinshon Judkins +120

Quinshon Judkins continues to establish himself as the Browns’ offensive engine, handling 23 of the team’s 32 rushing attempts in Week 5 and eclipsing 100 yards on the ground for the first time in his career. His violent running style and sharp vision between the tackles have allowed him to generate consistent yardage even behind a struggling offensive line. Judkins has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over his last three games and forced a missed tackle on over a quarter of his attempts. Against a Steelers defense giving up 4.0 yards per carry and the 11th-most rushing yards per game, his downhill approach should wear on the front seven. Pittsburgh’s run-stop win rate ranks middle of the pack, and their linebackers have been caught out of position on zone runs—a concept that Cleveland employs heavily. With a clear edge in volume and short-yardage work, Judkins remains the Browns’ most likely source of offensive scoring production.

 

1st TD Picks

Longshot (Browns): David Njoku +2230

David Njoku has been the heartbeat of Cleveland’s passing game since Dillon Gabriel took over at quarterback, emerging as his most trusted red-zone weapon. Njoku’s combination of size, burst, and body control makes him a natural first-read target when the Browns approach the goal line, and his 24% red-zone target share reflects that growing chemistry. Pittsburgh’s defense has been vulnerable early in games, allowing opening-drive touchdowns in three of their last four contests, often the result of linebackers getting exposed in coverage. With the Steelers leaning on single-high looks over 60% of the time, Njoku’s ability to find soft spots on seam routes and crossers gives him a clear path to early scoring opportunities. Expect Cleveland to script quick play-action shots and RPOs to get Gabriel on the move, looking to Njoku inside the 10-yard line. His red-zone usage and matchup advantage make him a strong candidate to strike first.

Parlay #1 (Browns): +750

David Njoku ATD

Dillon Gabriel 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs

 

Best Bet: 
Lean: 
Score Prediction 

Anytime TD Picks

 

1st TD Picks

QB Drake Maye

Maye is averaging 252.2 passing yards per game, 8.24 YPA, a 73.9% completion rate and he’s thrown 7 total TDs. He’ll face a Saints defense that is ranked in the middle of the pack in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 9^th fewest passing yards per game. The Saints have the 10th highest blitz rate (29.9%) but the 8th lowest pressure rate (33.1%). When Maye is not pressured, he averages 8.52 YPA, an 82.7% completion rate and it accounts for all 7 of his TDs. The Saints primarily play 3 coverages, Cover 3 (39.4%), Cover 4 (20%) and Cover 1 (18.9%). May averages 9.56 YPA and a 77.4% completion rate against these 3 coverages. That compares to 6.2 YPA and a 68.3% completion rate against all other coverages. In the running game, Maye is averaging 5.4 attempts and 22 yards per game. Most of his attempts have been on scrambles and the designed runs we hoped McDaniels would bring has not come to fruition. The Saints have allowed the 7^th most rushing yards per game to QB, but considering they don’t have a high pressure rate, I’m not inclined to bet on Maye’s rushing.

Suggested Pick:

Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-118)

 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson fumbled again last week but he still had a 50% snap share as Antonio Gibson suffered a season ending injury and the coaching staff does not trust the rookie Treveyon Henderson to fully take over yet. Stevenson rushed 7 times for just 14 yards but still received all the touches near the goal line. He out touched Henderson 3 to 0 inside the 10 and was able to score 2 rushing touchdowns. He’ll face a Saints team that is ranked 16^th best in EPA/Rush allowed. They are allowing the 13^th most rushing yards per game (122.2), yet the 14^th fewest YPC (4.16). The Saints play from behind a lot and the Patriots are 3.5-point favorites in this game. Rhamondre is also averaging 30.8 receiving yards per game, but a lot of that production came in weeks 2 and 3 with a 55- and 23-yard catch. He’s under 14 receiving yards in the other 3 games. From a receiving matchup, the Saints are allowing the 6^th highest target share to the backfield (19.4%) and the 12^th most receiving yards per game (32.6). If I’m playing any Stevenson overs, it’s for him to score a touchdown.

Suggested Pick:

Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

Under 13.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Anytime TD (+115)

 

RB Treveyon Henderson

Treveyon has yet to earn a meaningful role in this offense yet. He’s played 38.3% of the snaps and has 32 attempts to Stevenson’s 38. Rhamondre fumbled again last week, and Gibson came in as the bell cow immediately after. Gibson suffered a season-ending injury, so Treveyon was the next man up and played 48.2% of the snaps, his highest rate on the season. He did not do much with his opportunities, rushing 6 times for 24 times. He also caught 2 of 3 targets for just 3 receiving yards. The most encouraging aspect of the night was his route rate, at 47.2%. The coaching staff still trusted Stevenson with goal line carries (3 to 0 in attempts inside 10) and at the end of the game. Stevenson likely still sees majority of opportunities this week if he’s able to avoid a fumble. He’ll face a Saints team that is ranked 16^th best in EPA/Rush allowed. They are allowing the 13^th most rushing yards per game (122.2), yet the 14^th fewest YPC (4.16). From a receiving matchup, the Saints are allowing the 6^th highest target share to the backfield (19.4%) and the 12^th most receiving yards per game (32.6). I don’t mind Treveyon’s receiving lines with Gibson out of the picture.

Suggested Pick:

Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

 

WR Stefon Diggs

After averaging a 56.2% route rate, 37.3 receiving yards per game, 1.53 YPRR and 21% TPRR in the first 3 games of the season, Diggs has caught fire the past 2. His route rate has increased to 67.2% and he’s averaging 123.5 receiving yards per game, 6.33 YPRR, 49% TPRR and a 44.4% 1^st-read rate. Obviously, those numbers are not sustainable, but he’s firmly established himself as Maye’s #1 target. Diggs has lined up out wide on 58.9% of his routes and in the slot on 41.1%. The Saints have allowed the 2^nd fewest YPG and are 9^th lowest in EPA/pass allowed to the slot. They allow the 11^th most receiving yards and are 12^th highest in EPA/Pass allowed to wide alignment. The Saints have the 10th highest blitz rate (29.9%) but the 8th lowest pressure rate (33.1%). When Maye is not pressured, Diggs is averaging 4.15 YPRR, 39% TPRR and a 24.7% 1^st-read rate. The Saints primarily play 3 coverages, Cover 3 (39.4%), Cover 4 (20%) and Cover 1 (18.9%). Diggs averages 4.56 YPRR, 32% TPRR and a 22.9% 1^st-read rate against these 3 coverages. That compares to 1.52 YPRR, 28% TPRR and a 27% 1^st-read rate against all other coverages. I lean over on his props, but I’m not excited as previous weeks as his lines look closer to fair value and I believe defenses will start to gameplan against him.

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (-158)

Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

 

WR Kayshon Boutte

Boutte has run a route on 68.1% of routes this season, clearly the number 2 receiver for this Patriots offense. He’s averaging 41.6 receiving yards per game, has been targeted on 13% of his routes, and averages 1.63 YPRR. He’s 3^rd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 14%. Boutte primarily lines up out wide (92.2% route rate). The Saints allow the 11^th most receiving yards and are 12^th highest in EPA/Pass allowed to wide alignment. They are tougher against the slot. The Saints have the 10th highest blitz rate (29.9%) but the 8th lowest pressure rate (33.1%). Boutte averages 2.17 YPRR, 20% TPRR and has a 1^st-read rate of 14.6% when Maye is not pressured. The Saints primarily play 3 coverages, Cover 3 (39.4%), Cover 4 (20%) and Cover 1 (18.9%). Kayshon averages 1.84 YPRR, 17% TPRR and a 17.1% 1^st-read rate against these 3 coverages. That compares to 1.26 YPRR, 6% TPRR and 8.1% 1^st-read rate against all other coverages. Boutte attended college at LSU and grew up in Louisiana. I’m sure he had this game circled on his calendar and wouldn’t be surprised if he had a stellar performance in this one. Especially after Diggs went off the past 2 weeks and defenses will likely gameplan against him.

Suggested Pick:

Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

40+ Receiving Yards (+190)

50+ Receiving Yards (+390)

60+ Receiving Yards (+900)

 

TE Hunter Henry

Through 5 weeks, Henry is averaging 50 receiving yards per game, 1.88 YPRR, 20% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 20.6%. The Saints are allowing the 11^th most receiving yards and the 4^th most receiving TDs to tight end. Henry has a league-high 36.8% of his targets in the red zone (amongst TEs). The Saints have the 10th highest blitz rate (29.9%) but the 8th lowest pressure rate (33.1%). Henry averages 2.54 YPRR, 25% TPRR and a 16.9% 1^st-read rate when Maye is not pressured. The Saints primarily play 3 coverages, Cover 3 (39.4%), Cover 4 (20%) and Cover 1 (18.9%). Henry averages 2.00 YPRR, 19% TPRR and 20% 1^st-read rate against these 3 coverages. That compares to 1.71 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 21.6% 1^st-read rate against all other coverages. Henry has been hit or miss when it comes to receiving yards and receptions, but I like his upside in this matchup to find the endzone.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime TD (+210)

 

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QB Lamar Jackson

If Lamar Jackson suits up Sunday, expect Baltimore to lean heavily on his mobility to neutralize a fierce Rams pass rush that ranks top 10 in pressure rate. Los Angeles plays zone coverage on 77.3% of snaps, which historically invites scrambling opportunities for quarterbacks—especially mobile ones like Jackson, who has averaged 8.1 yards per scramble vs. zone looks since 2021. While his hamstring injury limits designed runs, Baltimore’s offense thrives when Jackson extends plays outside structure. Against zone-heavy defenses, he tends to tuck and run early—over 40% of his rush attempts this season have come on broken plays when facing two-deep coverage. The Rams have been disciplined in coverage but vulnerable to QB runs up the middle, surrendering 31+ rushing yards to both Jordan Love and Bo Nix in the past three weeks. If Jackson starts, expect Todd Monken to roll out a quick-hitting, spread look that opens interior lanes for scrambles. 

Suggested Play:

(If active) 'O' Rush Yards

 

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry has now failed to eclipse 50 rushing yards in four consecutive games, and this matchup doesn’t project much better. Los Angeles allows the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (71.8) and has yet to allow a single rushing touchdown to a running back this year. The Rams’ defensive front is led by Kobie Turner and Bobby Brown III, who’ve combined for the sixth-best adjusted yards before contact per attempt allowed (1.74). Henry has been hit at or behind the line on 47% of his carries this season, and his yards after contact per rush has fallen from 3.2 last year to just 2.0 in 2025. Without Lamar Jackson to freeze linebackers on the read-option, defenses have keyed in on Henry’s inside runs, collapsing the A-gap and forcing him laterally—a death sentence for his downhill style. The Ravens offensive line has generated the third-lowest rush success rate (35%) since Week 2. Against a Rams defense that thrives on gap discipline and rarely misses tackles, Henry’s efficiency outlook remains bleak. 

Suggested Play:

'U' 67.5 Rush Yards (-115)

 

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers continues to prove he’s the engine of Baltimore’s passing attack, regardless of who’s under center. Even with Lamar Jackson sidelined, Flowers showed his floor is remarkably stable — catching all 5 of his targets for 72 yards last week while leading the team in receptions, targets, and yards. His quick-hitting route tree and burst after the catch make him a perfect fit against the Rams’ zone-heavy scheme. Los Angeles plays Cover 3 on 40.1% of snaps, and Flowers has been excellent versus that look, producing 2.06 yards per route run and commanding a 24% target-per-route rate on 34 such routes. The Rams’ defense has been gashed underneath and across the seams, surrendering the seventh-most receiving yards per game (159.6) and eighth-most receptions per game (13.2) to opposing wideouts. Flowers thrives in that soft area between linebackers and safeties, averaging 8.4 yards after the catch per reception this season, and his ability to win quickly at the top of routes makes him quarterback-friendly no matter who’s throwing. With Baltimore’s offense likely leaning on short-area timing routes to counter Los Angeles’ pressure, Flowers should again operate as the first read on a high percentage of dropbacks. Another 70+ yard outing is firmly within reach.

Suggested Play:

'O' 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

TE Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews remains one of the NFL’s most efficient red-zone tight ends, and this matchup profiles perfectly for him to find paydirt again. Despite a quiet Week 5 (2 catches, 22 yards), Andrews still ranks second in target share inside the 10-yard line (33%) among tight ends and maintains a 12.2% win rate against man and match-zone looks. The Rams’ coverage tendencies suggest Andrews will see opportunities over the middle: they run Cover 3 at the fourth-highest rate (40.1%), and against that coverage, he’s averaged 0.67 yards per route run with a 10% target rate despite Baltimore’s recent quarterback rotation. Los Angeles has been vulnerable to tight ends working the seams, conceding the 14th-most receiving yards per game (49.2) and a touchdown to the position in three of their past four contests. Andrews’ role as a primary safety valve is amplified when Baltimore faces pressure — which they will against Jared Verse’s front — and Rush (or Jackson, if active) will almost certainly look his way on condensed-field throws. Inside the 20, Andrews has seen more end-zone targets (6) than all other Ravens combined. With Baltimore’s run game struggling and Flowers drawing bracket coverage, this sets up as a bounce-back week for the veteran tight end to cash as an anytime touchdown scorer.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+400)

 

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Best Bet: (Ravens) Mark Andrews +400

Mark Andrews remains Baltimore’s most reliable red-zone weapon, commanding 33% of the team’s targets inside the 10-yard line and leading all Ravens in end-zone looks. The Rams’ zone-heavy defense (40% Cover 3) has struggled to contain tight ends over the middle, allowing a score to the position in three of their last four games. With Flowers likely to draw extra attention on underneath routes, Andrews should find space up the seam or on a goal-line play-action look. This matchup sets up perfectly for him to break his scoring drought and get back in the end zone.

1st TD Picks

 

Best Bet: (Ravens) Derrick Henry +350

Derrick Henry’s production has dipped, but his usage near the goal line remains elite — he’s handled 100% of Baltimore’s carries inside the 5-yard line this season. The Ravens will likely lean on him early to establish rhythm and protect their quarterback situation. Despite the Rams ranking top-10 in rushing defense, their short-yardage success rate allowed (63%) leaves room for Henry to punch one in if Baltimore drives early. His combination of volume and red-zone dominance keeps him a strong first-TD bet.

 

Parlay #1 (Ravens) +550

Derrick Henry 'U' 17.5 Yard Longest Rush 

Mark Andrews ATD

 

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QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith finds himself under mounting pressure heading into Week 6, both literally and figuratively. The veteran quarterback has thrown multiple interceptions in three of his last five games, and his timing has been off on intermediate routes — a troubling sign for a rhythm passer. While Tennessee’s secondary has allowed the 15th-most passing yards per game (231.0), they’ve compensated by keeping everything in front of them, surrendering one of the lowest explosive pass rates in football. The Titans’ defense thrives on forcing checkdowns and rallying to the ball, and with Las Vegas’ offensive line struggling to hold up in protection, Smith may again be forced into a dink-and-dunk approach. Expect plenty of short completions to Jakobi Meyers and Ashton Jeanty as the Raiders try to establish flow early and avoid turnovers. If the Raiders fall behind, volume will inflate his passing total even if efficiency lags — making a high-attempt outing the most likely scenario.

Suggested Play: 

'O' 34.5 Passing Attempts (-115)

 

RB Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty remains the bright spot in a struggling Raiders offense, commanding 80% of the backfield snaps and contributing as both a runner and receiver. His burst and contact balance continue to stand out — averaging 4.7 yards per carry and forcing missed tackles at a top-five rate among running backs. The Titans’ defensive front, however, will be his toughest test yet. Tennessee allows the third-most rushing yards per game but compensates with disciplined red-zone defense, yielding few rushing touchdowns. Jeanty’s involvement in the passing game (five catches for 42 yards last week) makes him nearly game-script proof, as the Raiders will likely rely on his versatility to move the chains and keep Smith out of long passing downs. Expect another high-volume day where his efficiency through the air becomes the key factor.

Suggested Play:

'O' 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-118)

 

WR Jakobi Meyers

Jakobi Meyers enters Week 6 as Geno Smith’s most reliable possession receiver, though his production has dipped amid the Raiders’ offensive turmoil. He has continued to operate as the short-to-intermediate route runner, seeing a 17% target share with a consistent role in the slot. The Titans’ zone-heavy defense (74.2% of snaps) plays right into Meyers’ strengths — he’s averaging over two yards per route run against zone coverage, thriving in soft pockets underneath. Tennessee ranks 14th in receiving yards allowed to slot receivers and struggles to close space on timing routes over the middle. Meyers should see steady volume again this week, especially if Brock Bowers remains limited. Expect a high catch total in another game where the Raiders lean heavily on short passing to stay competitive.

Suggested Play:

Over 5.5 Receptions (+135)

 

WR Tre Tucker

Tre Tucker’s explosiveness continues to flash, and his ability to win vertically gives the Raiders’ offense a needed spark. Tennessee’s secondary, while improved, has been repeatedly exposed by deep threats — allowing the eighth-highest yards per route run to perimeter receivers (2.25). Tucker has averaged nearly 16 yards per catch this season, and his 1.95 yards per route run versus zone shows his knack for finding seams behind safeties. Expect the Raiders to manufacture touches for him early — perhaps through jet sweeps and deep crossers — to loosen up the Titans’ safeties and open up the underneath game for Meyers. If Geno Smith can buy enough time against Tennessee’s four-man rush, Tucker has the potential to break this game open on a single explosive play.

Suggested Play:

'O' 19.5 Yard Longest Reception (-115)

 

TE Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers remains the heartbeat of Las Vegas’s offense when healthy, but lingering knee issues have capped his explosiveness and limited his snap count. Against a Titans defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in tight end coverage metrics, Bowers’ return would instantly shift attention back to the middle of the field. Tennessee deploys zone at one of the NFL’s highest rates, and Bowers has been lethal sitting down between linebackers, averaging over 2.2 yards per route run against such looks. If he suits up, expect short-area targets designed to ease him back into rhythm — quick outs, option routes, and red-zone play-actions. If he’s ruled out, expect Michael Mayer to inherit much of that volume, particularly in the flat and on leak routes off play-action.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+175)

 

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Best Bet (Raiders): Brock Bowers (+195)

Brock Bowers remains the heartbeat of Las Vegas’s offense when healthy, but lingering knee issues have capped his explosiveness and limited his snap count. Against a Titans defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in tight end coverage metrics, Bowers’ return would instantly shift attention back to the middle of the field. Tennessee deploys zone at one of the NFL’s highest rates, and Bowers has been lethal sitting down between linebackers, averaging over 2.2 yards per route run against such looks. If he suits up, expect short-area targets designed to ease him back into rhythm — quick outs, option routes, and red-zone play-actions. If he’s ruled out, expect Michael Mayer to inherit much of that volume, particularly in the flat and on leak routes off play-action.

 

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Best Bet (Raiders): Ashton Jeanty +320

Ashton Jeanty has quickly emerged as the Raiders’ most dynamic offensive weapon, handling over 75% of the backfield touches and leading the team in total yards in three of his last four games. His combination of burst, contact balance, and vision gives Las Vegas a legitimate threat near the goal line — an area where Geno Smith has struggled to finish drives through the air. The Titans have been one of the league’s softer defenses early in games, allowing opening-drive touchdowns in three straight contests, often due to missed tackles and poor pursuit angles at the second level. Expect the Raiders to feature Jeanty immediately, using him on zone runs and quick swing passes to test Tennessee’s linebackers in space. His red-zone involvement (four carries inside the 10 over the last two weeks) and dual-threat usage make him the likeliest candidate to capitalize on an early scoring chance.

 

Parlay #1 (Raiders) +640

Ashton Jeanty ATD

Brock Bowers ATD

Geno Smith 'O' 34.5 Pass Attempts

 

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Best Bet (49ers) Kendrick Bourne +230

Kendrick Bourne’s resurgence has come at the perfect time for San Francisco. With multiple injuries in the receiver room, Bourne has become the team’s primary boundary option, leveraging strong route discipline and physicality after the catch. Against a Buccaneers secondary that ranks bottom-10 in explosive pass plays allowed, Bourne’s experience against both man and zone coverage gives him a clear advantage. He’s been most productive on intermediate digs and curls — routes that attack Tampa Bay’s soft coverage shells. Expect Bourne to be the early go-to option on third downs and in the red zone, especially on play-action looks where Jones can take advantage of single coverage. His strong catch radius and toughness make him the likeliest receiver to find pay dirt if the 49ers reach the red zone.

 

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Longshot (49ers) Jake Tonges +1555

Jake Tonges continues to deliver in George Kittle’s absence, developing into a reliable option in the short-to-intermediate range. His seven-catch, one-touchdown performance last week underscored both his trust within the system and his growing chemistry with Mac Jones. Tampa Bay has been particularly vulnerable to tight ends in recent weeks, allowing multiple scores to A.J. Barner and Dallas Goedert. The Buccaneers’ linebackers tend to bite hard on play-action, leaving voids behind them that Tonges can exploit on crossing and sit routes. Expect Shanahan to call several boot-action plays designed to isolate Tonges against smaller defenders in the flat and red zone. His size and steady hands give him another opportunity to make an early impact in scoring territory.

Parlay 1: (49ers) +750

Kendrick Bourne ATD

Jake Tonges ATD

Mac Jones 'O' 249.5 Pass Yards

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love is coming off one of his sharpest performances of the season, displaying poise and precision while throwing for 337 yards and three touchdowns in a high-pressure environment against Dallas. This week’s matchup against Cincinnati sets up favorably for another strong outing. The Bengals rank 28th in pressure rate (31.1%), allowing quarterbacks ample time to operate, and Love has been lethal from a clean pocket — averaging 10.5 yards per attempt with a passer rating north of 130 when unhurried. Expect Matt LaFleur to leverage play-action and layered crossing concepts to exploit the Bengals’ zone-heavy defense, which has surrendered the fourth-most passing yards per game (269.4). Love’s improved chemistry with Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft should help sustain long drives, especially in red-zone situations where he’s been most efficient.

Suggested Play:

'O' 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+195)

 

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs enters Week 6 in a smash spot against a Bengals defense that has been gashed repeatedly on the ground. Cincinnati ranks fourth-worst in rushing yards allowed per game (122.6) and sixth in yards before contact per attempt, an alarming indicator of weak interior line play. Jacobs has seen elite usage once again this season, averaging over 20 touches per game and serving as a focal point in both the run and pass game. Expect LaFleur to lean on him early to control tempo and set up play-action looks for Love, especially with the Packers favored to play from ahead. The Bengals’ linebackers have struggled to fill gaps against zone runs, an area where Jacobs thrives due to his patience and burst through tight lanes. With goal-line work firmly his, Jacobs is in prime position to make an early statement.

 

Suggested Play:

First Touchdown Scorer (+270)

 

WR Romeo Doubs

Romeo Doubs continues to evolve as Jordan Love’s most trusted perimeter option. His ability to separate against both man and zone coverage makes him a key chess piece in this week’s matchup with Cincinnati’s secondary, which has allowed a 67.8% completion rate to opposing wideouts. The Bengals’ frequent use of Cover 3 and Cover 1 leaves soft spots along the sidelines and intermediate seams — areas where Doubs has excelled, averaging nearly 2.9 yards per route run against those looks. Expect Green Bay to feature him on slants and deep comebacks to exploit mismatches against Cincinnati’s corners, who have been among the league’s least effective in preventing yards after the catch. With Jayden Reed sidelined, Doubs’ target share should climb, and another high-volume performance feels inevitable.

Suggested Play:

'O' 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Matthew Golden

Rookie receiver Matthew Golden has quietly carved out a reliable role in this Packers offense. His speed and versatility have made him a threat on both quick screens and intermediate crossers, and he’s been used creatively on end-arounds to stretch defenses horizontally. The Bengals have struggled to contain shifty slot receivers all season, allowing one of the league’s highest yards-after-catch totals to players aligned inside. Expect LaFleur to design several manufactured touches to get Golden in open space early, particularly on first downs and scripted drives. His growing chemistry with Jordan Love has been evident in recent weeks, and his ability to find soft zones against Cincinnati’s two-high looks could lead to another efficient outing.

Suggested Play:

'O' 3.5 Receptions (+140)

 

TE Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft’s emergence as a dependable safety valve for Jordan Love adds another dimension to Green Bay’s passing attack. His physicality after the catch and steady route-running have allowed him to exploit soft spots in zone coverage, an area where the Bengals have been exposed all season. Cincinnati ranks fourth-worst in receiving yards allowed to tight ends (69.0 per game) and has yielded at least five catches to the position in four straight contests. With defenses forced to account for Jacobs and Doubs on early downs, Kraft should find favorable matchups up the seams and in red-zone sets. Look for Green Bay to dial up multiple play-action boots that free him into open grass near the numbers — a staple of LaFleur’s offense.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+182)

 

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Best Bet (Packers) Tucker Kraft +182

Tucker Kraft’s emergence as a dependable safety valve for Jordan Love adds another dimension to Green Bay’s passing attack. His physicality after the catch and steady route-running have allowed him to exploit soft spots in zone coverage, an area where the Bengals have been exposed all season. Cincinnati ranks fourth-worst in receiving yards allowed to tight ends (69.0 per game) and has yielded at least five catches to the position in four straight contests. With defenses forced to account for Jacobs and Doubs on early downs, Kraft should find favorable matchups up the seams and in red-zone sets. Look for Green Bay to dial up multiple play-action boots that free him into open grass near the numbers — a staple of LaFleur’s offense.

 

1st TD Picks

Best Bet (Packers) Josh Jacobs +270

Tucker Kraft’s emergence as a dependable safety valve for Jordan Love adds another dimension to Green Bay’s passing attack. His physicality after the catch and steady route-running have allowed him to exploit soft spots in zone coverage, an area where the Bengals have been exposed all season. Cincinnati ranks fourth-worst in receiving yards allowed to tight ends (69.0 per game) and has yielded at least five catches to the position in four straight contests. With defenses forced to account for Jacobs and Doubs on early downs, Kraft should find favorable matchups up the seams and in red-zone sets. Look for Green Bay to dial up multiple play-action boots that free him into open grass near the numbers — a staple of LaFleur’s offense.

Parlay #1 (Packers): +865

Jordan Love 'O' 2.5 Pass TDs

Matthew Golden 'O' 3.5 Receptions

Romeo Doubs 'O' 42.5 Receiving Yards

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff enters Week 6 in excellent rhythm, leading the NFL in touchdown passes while maintaining elite efficiency from a clean pocket. He’s completing over 75% of his throws and has thrown multiple touchdowns in three of his last five games. This week, he faces a Kansas City defense that leads the league in pressure rate (50%) — a stark contrast to the limited pressure he’s seen recently. Goff’s production drops significantly under duress, but Detroit’s offensive line, ranked among the league’s best in pass protection, gives him a fighting chance to stay comfortable. Expect offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to lean heavily on play-action and quick-hitting routes to neutralize Kansas City’s rush. If Goff can get into rhythm early, his efficiency should hold against a defense that’s allowed the 13th-highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks this season.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-129)

 

RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery continues to anchor the Lions’ ground game, bringing power and consistency between the tackles. Averaging over 13 touches per game and among the league leaders in red-zone carries, Montgomery’s bruising running style pairs perfectly with Detroit’s dominant offensive line. Kansas City has been solid but not elite against the run, giving up the 12th-most rushing yards per game and struggling to stuff inside zone runs at the line of scrimmage. Montgomery thrives in those zone looks, converting over 67% of such plays into successful gains. Expect Detroit to lean on him early to wear down the Chiefs’ defensive front and establish control of the game’s tempo. If the Lions move the ball efficiently, Montgomery is the most likely candidate to finish drives near the goal line.

Suggested Play:

First Touchdown Scorer (+640)

 

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs’ versatility continues to make him one of the most dynamic playmakers in Detroit’s offense. Splitting touches with Montgomery, Gibbs has been effective as both a runner and receiver, posting 87+ scrimmage yards in four straight games. Against Kansas City, his matchup comes primarily through the air — the Chiefs have allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game to running backs and have struggled to contain speed out of the backfield. Expect Gibbs to be heavily featured on swing passes and motion routes designed to stretch the Chiefs’ linebackers horizontally. With his acceleration and agility, Gibbs is capable of turning short passes into chunk gains, especially against an aggressive pass rush that often leaves space underneath. He should see an expanded role in no-huddle and third-down situations.

Suggested Play:

'O' 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the heartbeat of Detroit’s passing attack, a volume monster who’s built his reputation on precision and consistency. Facing a Chiefs defense that plays two-high coverage on over 60% of snaps, St. Brown’s ability to find seams between safeties makes him a constant threat in the intermediate game. He’s been nearly unstoppable against both man and zone looks, ranking among the league leaders in yards per route run in both categories. Kansas City has quietly struggled against slot receivers, allowing over 840 yards from the position — the fourth-highest mark in the league. Expect Goff to rely on St. Brown heavily on third downs and in the red zone, where his body control and timing create separation even against tight coverage.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+100)

 

TE Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta continues to prove himself as a cornerstone of Detroit’s offensive structure, combining athleticism with advanced route-running for a rookie tight end. He exploded for 92 yards and a touchdown last week, and while Kansas City has been one of the stingiest teams against tight ends this year, LaPorta’s role gives him opportunities regardless of matchup. The Chiefs deploy two-high shells at the third-highest rate in the league, often leaving open space underneath where LaPorta excels. Expect him to serve as a critical checkdown option against Kansas City’s relentless pass rush, particularly on play-action bootlegs and seam routes off motion. While the matchup is tough, his reliability on third downs and near the goal line should keep him involved throughout the night.

Suggested Play:

Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)

QB Patrick Mahomes

 

 

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Best Bet: (Lions) Amon-Ra St Brown +100

Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the heartbeat of Detroit’s passing attack, a volume monster who’s built his reputation on precision and consistency. Facing a Chiefs defense that plays two-high coverage on over 60% of snaps, St. Brown’s ability to find seams between safeties makes him a constant threat in the intermediate game. He’s been nearly unstoppable against both man and zone looks, ranking among the league leaders in yards per route run in both categories. Kansas City has quietly struggled against slot receivers, allowing over 840 yards from the position — the fourth-highest mark in the league. Expect Goff to rely on St. Brown heavily on third downs and in the red zone, where his body control and timing create separation even against tight coverage.

 

Best Bet (Chiefs): Travis Kelce +160

Travis Kelce remains the heartbeat of the Chiefs’ passing offense, and his chemistry with Mahomes is as strong as ever. He’s coming off a season-high in catches and targets, showing that even at age 35, he remains a difficult cover. The Lions have limited tight end yardage this season but have struggled to keep them out of the end zone, allowing the fifth-most touchdowns to the position. Detroit’s reliance on man coverage will put their linebackers and safeties in challenging one-on-one situations — matchups Kelce has historically dominated with leverage and route precision. Expect him to be heavily featured on third downs and in the red zone, where Mahomes’ trust in him remains unmatched. Even in a tough yardage environment, Kelce’s scoring potential is elite in this spot.

1st TD Picks

Best Bet (Lions): David Montgomery +640

David Montgomery continues to anchor the Lions’ ground game, bringing power and consistency between the tackles. Averaging over 13 touches per game and among the league leaders in red-zone carries, Montgomery’s bruising running style pairs perfectly with Detroit’s dominant offensive line. Kansas City has been solid but not elite against the run, giving up the 12th-most rushing yards per game and struggling to stuff inside zone runs at the line of scrimmage. Montgomery thrives in those zone looks, converting over 67% of such plays into successful gains. Expect Detroit to lean on him early to wear down the Chiefs’ defensive front and establish control of the game’s tempo. If the Lions move the ball efficiently, Montgomery is the most likely candidate to finish drives near the goal line.

 

Longshot: (Chiefs): Patrick Mahomes +1585

Patrick Mahomes has quietly become one of the NFL’s most dangerous red-zone runners, and this matchup against Detroit sets up perfectly for him to strike early with his legs. The Lions’ defensive front loves to collapse the pocket aggressively — they blitz at a top-10 rate and frequently vacate the middle of the field in man coverage. That aggressive approach leaves lanes open when Mahomes escapes contain, especially inside the 10-yard line, where linebackers are often turned around in coverage. Mahomes already averages a career-best 38 rushing yards per game this season and has logged at least one red-zone scramble in every contest. Expect Andy Reid to lean on play-action and rollout concepts to give Mahomes the option to tuck and run if the edge defenders bite on motion. With Detroit’s defense focused on Kelce and Worthy near the goal line, Mahomes slipping through for the first score of the game feels like the kind of statement play we’ve come to expect from him.

Parlay #1 (Lions) +505

Sam Laporta 'O' 4.5 Receptions

Jared Goff 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs

David Montgomery ATD

 

Parlay #2 (Chiefs) +630

Travis Kelce ATD
Patrick Mahomes 'O' 29.5 Rush Yards

Isiah Pacheco 'U' 33.5 Rush Yards

 

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