QB Josh Allen

Josh is averaging 243 passing yards per game, 8.01 YPA and a 70.4% completion rate. He’ll face a Falcons defense that ranks 5^th best in EPA/Pass allowed. They have blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL (43.5%) but have pressured the QB at the 12^th highest rate (41.1%). Their average time to pressure ranks 19^th (2.54 seconds). When blitzed, Allen is averaging 8.34 YPA and a 61.7% completion rate. The key will be if Atlanta can turn those blitzes into pressure. Allen is averaging 6.61 YPA and a 51.2% completion rate when pressured. The Falcons are running the highest rate of single high (68.5%) and the 2^nd highest rate of Cover 3 (44.4%). Josh averages 8.29 YPA and a 67.8% completion rate against single-high. That compares to 7.63 YPA and a 73.8% completion rate against two-high. Similar splits remained true last season. Against Cover 3 in particular, Allen is averaging 8.5 YPA and a 75% completion rate. He shredded Cover 3 last season as well, averaging 8.39 YPA and a 68.6% completion rate. In the run game, Josh is averaging 42.4 rushing yards per game, and he’s rushed for 3 TDs. The Falcons have allowed the 13^th most rushing yards and the T-8^th most rushing TDs to QB.

Suggested Pick:

Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Anytime TD (+105)

 

RB James Cook

Cook is 2^nd in the league averaging 90 rushing yards per game on 5.00 YPC and 5 total rushing TDs. He’ll face a Falcons defense that is 6^th worst in EPA/Rush allowed and allowing the 10^th most YPC (4.64). They have sizable splits between zone concept and man/gap concepts. They are allowing just 3.71 YPC and a 44.1% success rate against zone concept. That compares to 4.95 YPC and a 57.1% success rate against man/gap concept. Cook has been more successful on zone concepts. He has rushed out of this concept 48 times, averaging 6.06 YPC and a 68.8% success rate. That compares to 3.73 YPC and a 56.1% success rate in man/gap concepts. The Commanders most recently had success in this matchup. They went with a committee with Bill and Rodriguez, who gained 47 and 59 rushing yards respectively on 6.7 and 8.4 YPC. Last week was the first time the Bills had a higher pass rate than expected this season. They are still dead last in pass rate over expected over the entire season. This was their first loss of the season, I’d expect them to go back to a run heavy game plan, which is the Falcons weakness.

Suggested Pick:

Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-119)

80+ Rushing Yards (+138)

90+ Rushing Yards (+225)

100+ Rushing Yards (+360)

Anytime TD (-150)

 

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir is averaging 47 receiving yards per game, 1.78 YPRR and 20% TPRR. He is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 17.7%. He’ll face a Falcons defense that ranks 5^th best in EPA/Pass allowed. Shakir has lined up 65.9% of the time from the slot. The Falcons are allowing the 7^th fewest YPRR (1.49) and the 8^th fewest YPG (55.5) to the slot. They have blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL (43.5%) but have pressured the QB at the 12^th highest rate (41.1%). When Josh is blitzed, Shakir averages 2.36 YPRR and 18% TPRR. The Falcons are running the highest rate of single high (68.5%) and the 2^nd highest rate of Cover 3 (44.4%). Against single-high, Shakir averages 2.38 YPRR and 24% TPRR. Against Cover 3, Shakir averages 2.97 YPRR and 28% TPRR.

Suggested Pick:

Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Keon Coleman

Coleman is averaging 45.2 receiving yards per game, 1.75 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He’s first on the team in 1^st-read rate at 26%. He’ll face a Falcons defense that ranks 5^th best in EPA/Pass allowed. Keon has lined up out wide on 83.7% of his routes. The Falcons are allowing the 3^rd fewest YPRR (1.62) and YPG (80) to wide alignment. They have blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL (43.5%) but have pressured the QB at the 12^th highest rate (41.1%). When Josh is blitzed, Keon averages 1.97 YPRR and 26% TPRR. His 1^st-read rate also rises to 30.3%. The Falcons are running the highest rate of single high (68.5%) and the 2^nd highest rate of Cover 3 (44.4%). Keon averages 1.67 YPRR and 22% TPRR against single-high. Against Cover 3, Keon averages 1.97 YPRR and 20% TPRR. However, in a larger sample size last season Keon averaged 3.01 YPRR against Cover 3 and 2.49 YPRR against single-high, both positive splits.

Suggested Pick:

Under 3.5 Receptions (-135)

 

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid is averaging 57.4 receiving yards per game, 2.84 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. He also leads the team in receiving TDs with 3. The only knock on Kincaid thus far has been his 55.5% route participation rate. He’ll face a Falcons defense that ranks 5^th best in EPA/Pass allowed. They have allowed the fewest receiving yards per game to TE. They have blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL (43.5%) but have pressured the QB at the 12^th highest rate (41.1%). When Allen is blitzed, Kincaid averages 2.73 YPRR and 30% TPRR. The Falcons are running the highest rate of single high (68.5%) and the 2^nd highest rate of Cover 3 (44.4%). Against single-high, Kincaid averages 3.28 YPRR and 26% TPRR. Against Cover 3, Kincaid averages 3.78 YPRR and 30% TPRR.

Suggested Pick

Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Anytime Touchdown (+250)

QB Michael Penix Jr.

It goes without saying Michael Penix was hoping for a better start to the '25 season. Atlanta (2-2) enters MNF with a .500 record, but in his first four games this year Penix is completing just 62.4% of his passes (26th), while throwing only 3 TDs to 2 INTs. On the positive side of things, the Falcons are coming in fresh off a bye, and for Penix his last start was the best he's looked all season. The 2nd year quarterback out of Washington completed 20 of 26 passes (76.9% CMP) for 313 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT. Still, it's going to take a lot more than one start to have ATL fans feeling excited. The truth of the matter is Penix has several deficiencies to work through before we can even begin to assess if he has a real future in this league. One of the biggest concerns is with regard to his struggles as a downfield passer. In throws of 10 yards or more down the field, Penix has completed just 17 of 45 (37.8% CMP) attempts, ranking him 28th among NFL starting QBs. This poses a major matchup problem for the Falcons, because one of Buffalo's strongest areas on defense is preventing teams from moving the ball down the field. The Bills lean heavily on Cover-3 (27.0%) and Cover-2 (23.9%) defensive schemes in order limit teams from picking up big chunks of yardage in the passing game. This has proven to be successful as BUF allowa the 4th lowest completion rate (39.8%) to opponents on throws of 10+ yards or more. Another problematic area for Atlanta is their refusal to use Penix in the play action passing game (18.4% of dropbacks). The only quarterback to utilize play action less than Penix is NY Jets starter Justin Fields (15.1% of dropbacks.). This presents another  problematic area for the Falcons, considering the Bills are allowing only 6.0 YPPA (4th fewest) against the play-action passing game. So basically, the good news is Atlanta has had 2 weeks to prepare for Buffalo. The bad news is the main aforementioned weaknesses of the Falcons feed right into what the Bills do best on defense. Simply put, Buffalo does not get beat deep...they excel at keeping plays in front of them. They are allowing the 2nd fewest pass YPG (167.4) and rank in the top-5 in limiting YPA. The prop I like most tonight with Penix is the under on his longest completion, which is set at 34.5 yards. No starting quarterback has completed a pass of 35 yards or more vs BUF since Lamar Jackson in week 1. Michael Penix has cleared this number in 2 times, but both were on dump-off passes to Bijan Robinson that he took to the house. But, that's highly unlikely to happen tonight as the Bills allow the 2nd fewest receiving YPG (16.6) to opposing RBs out of the backfield.

Suggested Pick:

Michael Penix u34.5 Longest Completion (-110)

 

RB Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson is the one consistent performer week-in and week-out for this Falcons offense. He ranks 1st in all of the NFL in yards from scrimmage per game (146.0). He had 18+ touches and 110+ scrimmage yards in every game this season. Robinson is also extremely elusive, ranking 3rd in forcing missed tackles to opposing defenders. Bijan is such a special talent that some defensive statistics do not apply, but it's hard ignore the fact that Buffalo is holding opposing RBs to just 16.6 receiving YPG (2nd fewest) out of the backfield. Perhaps the best comparison to make would be De'Von Achane (12-62-0 rushing, 7-29-0 receiving), who the the Bills limited to 91 total yards. Head coach Raheem Morris has hinted to a more conservative approach in this game, and I think he knows Atlanta has to run the ball more in order to control time of possession. BUF is giving up the 9th most rushing YPG (98.8) to opposing RBs, and this matchup is one that is particularly favorable in relation to running the football. In 4 games played, Robinson has rushed for 24 yds (vs TB), 142 (@ MIN), 72 (@ CAR) and 75 (vs WAS). Outside of Tampa Bay, Bijan has posted solid running totals, and his 4.9 average YPC is indicative of how defenses are playing him. In essence, Robinson's opponents are guarding against the BIG play, and they are doing that by not putting 8 men in a box, but rather spreading out to defend against the Falcons outside zone runs, which they employ at the highest rate in the NFL (60.9%). Earlier, I said this was a favorable matchup for Bijan on the ground and that's because the Bills are allow the 6th most YPC (5.2) to RBs on outside zone runs. Buffalo also gives up 10+ yards or more on 20.6% of their opponent' rush attempts (highest rate in NFL). Bijan Robinson is still going to catch some balls tonight and pick up yards in that respect, but look for the bulk of his yardage total to come from the running game tonight.

Suggested Pick:

Bijan Robinson o73.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Bijan Robinson ALT 90+ Rush Yards (+174)

Bijan Robinson ALT 100+ Rush Yards (+269)

Bijan Robinson o4.5 Receptions (+115)

 

WR Drake London

After posting receiving yardage totals of 55, 49 and 55, Drake London finally busted out, posting 8-110-1 on 10 targets last Sunday vs Washington. By now, it's become obvious to anyone that London's volume and overall production are entirely dependent on Darnell Mooney being on or off the field. If you have yet to notice, there is a direct correlation in the spike of Drake London's numbers when Darnell Mooney simultaneously leaves the game. In the two games Mooney has played, London's target-rate has sat steadily at 19% and 19.5%, but when he is out, London's usage skyrockets to 35.7% and 38.5%. In the '25 season, London is being targeted on 37.3% of his routes with Mooney off the field. Last year, this number was slightly higher at 40.9%, but they coincide the same. The status for the Falcons #2 WR was uncertain for the longest time, but he has officially been ruled out for MNF so it's time to sit back and watch Drake, rake and bake. As for the matchup itself, it is conducive for a strong performance from the Atlanta wide receiver. The Bills run Cover-3 (27.0%) and Cover-2 (23.9%) schemes for just over half of their defensive snaps. Against these primary zone-coverages, London is being targeted on 35% of his routes to go with 3.9 YPR. Buffalo is allowing the 8th most receiving yards to opposing team's #1 WR's. Here are each player's receiving lines vs the Bills in the first 5 weeks of the '25 season: Zay Flowers (7-143-1), Tyreek Hill (5-49-1), Stefon Diggs (10-146-0), Garrett Wilson (4-50-0) and Chris Olave (3-20-1). Coming off a bye and playing at home I expect a well-rested Drake London to put up some very big numbers tonight.

Suggested Pick:

Drake London o5.5 Receptions (-158)

Drake London ALT 7+ Receptions (+174)

Drake London ALT 8+ Receptions (+269)

Drake London o74.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

 

TE Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts has been a rollercoaster ride this season, but like Drake London, his two most productive weeks of the season also ran parallel with the absence of Darnell Mooney. His numbers don't come close to the drastic nature of London's, but Pitts did see his target share climb from 16.7% to 20.7% with Mooney on the sideline. That said, Buffalo has been one of the league's best teams in defending the TE position so far in '25. Through the first 5 weeks of the season, the Bills rank 2nd in both average receptions (2.2 per game) and average yards (22.6) allowed to opposing tight ends. They have allowed a touchdown to the position, and considering the lack of depth Atlanta will have tonight, Kyle Pitts could have some end zone value.

Suggested Pick:

Kyle Pitts Anytime TD (+200)

Josh Allen is 4-5 in his career coming off a lose then having to play a Road game trying to bounce back

2018 (1-1)
2019 (1-0)
2020 (0-1)
2021 (2-0)
2022 (0-1)
2023 (0-1)
2024 (0-1)

This Bills team took a tough loss last week against the Patriots and now they face the Falcons who have had a roller coaster of a year going from beating the Vikings & Commanders to losing to the Panthers 30-0. Now this year @Home they are 1-1 losing to the Bucs by 3 and beating the Commanders by 7. Josh Allen is always VERY tough to fade and where Penix has had success is where the Bills are good on defense. You wont see a ton of chunk plays from the Falcons so the only way I see them winning this game is running and draining that clock to limit possessions for that Bills offense. With the Falcons coming off a Bye I think they will have success doing that but at the same time Josh Allen and the Bills have looked like the most consistent team. Give me the Under here and the Bills to cover the short spread.

 

Best Bet: Under 49.5 
Lean: Bills -2.5 -145
Score Prediction Bills 24 Falcons 21

Anytime TD Picks

Josh Allen (Bills) +105

The Falcons are blitzing at the highest rate in the NFL (43.5%) but have just the 12th highest pressure rate (41.1%). This is a recipe for QB running and I think Josh takes advantage here. The Falcons have also been the 5th best team in EPA/Pass allowed, may be tough to get a TD through the air. Josh has 3 rushing TDs on the season.

 

Tyler Allgeier (Falcons) +200 FanDuel

It goes without saying that Bijan Robinson is the premier lead back in Atlanta, and while the majority of the betting audience will be on Robinson to score a touchdown, the real value tonight is on the legs of one Tyler Allgeier. The 4th year RB out of BYU continues to carve out a meaningful role in the Falcons offense, where he's carried the ball 43 times for 155 yards and 2 TDs. But it's Allgeier's production inside the red zone that makes him such an attractive buy. He has 10 carries inside the 20-yard line, another 10 inside the 10-yard line and 3 more inside the 5-yard line. Most relevant, as it relates to MNF, is that opportunities will be there for Allgeier throughout this game against Buffalo. The Bills defense has already allowed 7 rushing TDs (4th most in NFL) in the first 5 weeks of the '24 season. Considering the disparity with Bijan's line (-170) in comparison to the plus money price we're getting with Tyler Allgeier (+200), this is a no-brainer.

 

1st TD Picks

James Cook (Bills) +525

The Falcons are 6th worst in EPA/Rush allowed compared to 5th best in EPA/Pass allowed. The Bills passed more often than expected for the first time last weekend, which resulted in a loss. They still have the lowest pass rate over expected in the league this season. I expect them to go back to a run first mindset, especially on the first drive. Expecting Cook to rush it in here in the 1st quarter.

 

Tyler Allgeier (Falcons) +1100 FanDuel

Bijan Robinson (584 yards, 2 TD) gets all of the attention out of the Falcons backfield, and rightfully so, but it's time we start giving Tyler Allgeier his just do. The Atlanta running back to score the First Touchdown at +1100 is sorely mispriced, and the proof is right here. Despite garnering 21 less carries than Bijan through the first 5 weeks, Allgeier leads the team with 5 carries inside the 10-yard line (Robinson has 2). In fact, Tyler Allgeier's usage has escalated in late-drive situations, so much so, that he has found the end zone in 2 of his last 3 games.

Parlay #1 (Bills):  Best Play  +836

James Cook 100+ Rushing Yards

James Cook 2+ Touchdowns

 

Parlay #1 (Falcons):  Best Play  +280

Bijan Robinson 70+ Rush TDs

Bijan Robinson Anytime TD

Drake London 6+ Receptions

 

Parlay 2: (Falcons):  Longshot  +1900

Bijan Robinson 100+ Rush Yards

Bijan Robinson Anytime TD

Drake London 100+ Receiving Yards

Drake London Anytime TD

QB Caleb Williams

It's a rematch of last year's epic game, where a defensive lapse from the Bears defence allowed the Commanders to steal the win. Washington allows the 13th-fewest completions (20), the 14th-fewest pass attempts, but the 10th-most passing yards (254.4) per game to opposing QBs. Washington runs the 11th-most man coverage (29.8%) – more specifically, the 7th-most Cover 1 (26.5%). Williams has seen the least amount of man coverage, seeing just 21 dropbacks against the coverage this season. However, he's actually performed fairly well against man, completing 70% of his passes, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and a QBR of 129.2. Against Cover 1 specifically, Williams' numbers drop, completing just 64.7% of his passes and 114.1 QBR, but his yards per attempt jump up to 9.24. However, last season, Williams saw the 3rd most dropbacks against Cover 1 but really struggled, completing just 49.2% of his passes for 4.92 yards per attempt and a disappointing 72.6 QBR. However, it does seem like he's figured it out this season, with the help of new Head Coach Ben Johnson. With that in mind, as well as the Bears coming off the bye, having a full week to scheme and game plan, we like Williams and Ben Johnson to craft up a successful night through the air. Williams has thrown for over 200 yards in each game this season.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams o224.5 Passing Yards (-130)

 

RB D'Andre Swift

Swift hasn’t found much room to run so far this season, despite dominating the workload. However, he continues to play a key role in Chicago’s offence — particularly as a receiving threat out of the backfield. This week, he’ll face off against the Washington Commanders, a defence that’s been somewhat stingy against the run but more vulnerable to backs catching passes in space. Washington allows the 8th-most rush attempts (23.4) per game but gives up the 13th-fewest rushing yards (79.8). On the surface, that might suggest teams have tried to run on them — but with limited success. Against the pass, Washington allows the 8th-fewest receptions (4.0) to RBs per game, yet those catches often turn into chunk plays, as they surrender the 11th-most receiving yards (37.8) to the position. From a schematic standpoint, the Commanders rely heavily on zone concept (51.0%), and it’s been solid for them — they allow just 3.85 yards per carry in zone, the 14th-lowest mark in the league. They’re even tougher in man/gap situations, where opponents average only 3.21 yards per carry, 3rd-lowest in the NFL. For Swift, that doesn’t set up as an ideal rushing matchup. He’s averaging 3.76 yards per carry versus zone looks compared to 2.67 against man/gap, meaning he’s unlikely to find much running room regardless of how Washington lines up. But where he continues to shine is through the air. Swift has recorded three catches in every game this season. While his rushing numbers may not pop off the page this week, Swift’s consistent involvement as a receiver should help him produce. Washington’s defence has shown a tendency to give up explosive plays to running backs through the air, and Swift should be able to turn that into receiving yards this week.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift o16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR DJ Moore

Moore has been invisible this season, and this matchup doesn’t project to change that. He gets the Washington Commanders, who allow the 15th-fewest receptions (11.6) per game to opposing WRs but still cough up the 15th-most receiving yards (151.2). Washington plays a lot of man coverage, specifically Cover 1, and that’s been a real thorn in Moore’s side. This season, he has just one target on 19 routes against man coverage for one receiving yard. That’s not a misprint — when asked to beat defenders one-on-one this year, he hasn’t been winning. Even last year, with a bigger sample size, he struggled against man coverage: a 54.1% catch rate and only 1.17 yards per route run. Moore lines up out wide on 61.2% of his routes, which isn't great in this matchup. To outside receivers, the Commanders allow the 9th-lowest catch rate (61.1%). Moore's targets have dipped from 8.1 per game last year to 5.0 this season, and there’s no reason to expect an uptick for this matchup. Against the Commanders last season, Moore also struggled, catching 2-of-4 targets for 27 yards in their matchup. With his target volume down and the matchup set up to limit outside WRs, this looks like a tough week for him to return value unless the Bears change their game plan and get him more involved after the bye. But until we see it, we aren't trusting it.

Suggested pick:

DJ Moore u3.5 Receptions (-105)

 

WR Rome Odunze

Odunze continues to emerge as the number one receiving option for the Bears — and that shouldn't stop this week. While Washington’s defence has successfully minimized receiver receptions, their tendency to play man coverage — particularly Cover 1 — should be good for Odunze. Against man coverage this season, Odunze has been Caleb Williams’ go-to option, drawing 10 targets, good for a 47.5% target share on the Bears. He’s turned those chances into a 70% catch rate and 96 receiving yards, and nearly all of that production has come specifically against Cover 1 — nine of those 10 targets, six of his seven catches, and 95 of his 96 receiving yards. Odunze lines up out wide on 62.7% of his routes. The Commanders allow the 9th-lowest catch rate (61.1%) to outside receivers, but their defence is vulnerable when teams attack deeper downfield. They allow the 4th-highest average depth of target (14.4) and the 5th-highest yards per reception (14.7) per game. With Odunze carrying the highest aDoT (13.2) on the Bears, he could easily find himself catching a few splash plays downfield. Odunze has logged 60+ receiving yards in three straight weeks.

Suggested pick:

Rome Odunze 60+ Receiving Yards (-155)

 

TE Cole Kmet

Kmet continues to be one of the most heavily used players in the Bears’ offence, leading the team with a 92.7% snap share, but that high workload hasn’t yet translated into much production. Through four weeks, he’s barely surpassed the 100-yard mark receiving — though that could change in Week 6 against Washington. The Commanders’ defence has done well to limit receptions to TEs, allowing the 9th-fewest receptions (4.4) per game, but they’ve also been susceptible to big plays, giving up the 7th-most receiving yards (65.4) per game. That aligns well with how Kmet has played, turning very low volume into decent yardage. Kmet runs 52% of his routes inline, where Washington’s defence has quietly struggled. Against inline receivers, the Commanders allow the 12th-lowest catch rate (77.8%), but when they do allow a reception, the damage tends to follow, as they’ve given up the 4th-most yards per route run (2.48), the 2nd-most yards per target (11.00), and the most yards per reception (14.1) to the specific target alignment. Even if rookie Colston Loveland returns to the lineup this week, Kmet should continue to see the majority of snaps and targets at the position. This might finally be the game where his high usage turns into meaningful production.

Suggested pick:

Cole Kmet o18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jayden Daniels

In his return last week, Daniels completed 15 of his 26 pass attempts for 231 passing yards and one passing TD. He also added 39 yards on the ground. This week, he gets the Bears, who are middle of the pack in terms of pass completions (21) and passing yards (221.5), but allow the 7th-fewest pass attempts (28.5) per game. Chicago also does a good job of limiting QBs on the ground, allowing the 13th-fewest rushing yards (15.5) to the position. However, where they really struggle is limiting scores through the air, as they allow the 2nd-most (2.5) passing TDs per game. The Bears run the 8th-most man coverage (32.5%), more specifically Cover 2 (22.8%) and Cover 2 man (9.8%). It hasn't been pretty for Daniels against man coverage, as he has completed just 37.9% of his passes, and has the 10th-lowest yards per attempt (5.28) of all QBs this season with at least 10 dropbacks against the coverage. Against Cover 2, however, Daniels has a 78.9% completion percentage, a 7.58 yards per attempt and a 115.8 QBR. Last season against the Bears, Daniels completed just 55.3% of his passes, but turned that into 326 passing yards and 52 yards on the ground. His lone TD through the air came on the Hail Mary to win the game. However, with how poor the Bears' passing defence has been this season, we anticipate Daniels scoring more with his arm. The Bears have allowed QBs to go over their passing TD line in three of four games this season.

Suggested pick:

Jayden Daniels o1.5 Passing TDs (+125)

 

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Okay, it finally happened. We finally saw one of these RBs take the backfield and run with it – literally. Jacory Croskey-Merritt saw 50.9% of the snaps, while Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols both saw less than 25%. Croskey-Merritt had 111 rushing yards and a TD on 14 rush attempts, even adding 39 yards on two receptions through the air. Chicago allows the 9th-most rush attempts (23.3) per game and the most rushing yards (140.8) per game. On top of that, they give up the 13th-most receptions (4.8) to running backs, though they keep those catches fairly contained, allowing the 16th-fewest receiving yards (30.3). The .4%real weakness, however, comes from how their front seven handles zone-run concepts. The Bears mostly run zone concept (53.3%), and they’ve been getting shredded on the ground — surrendering a league-worst 6.05 yards per carry. That lines up perfectly for Croskey-Merritt, who has been excellent against on a yards per carry basis in either coverage, but truly shines versus zone. He’s averaging 7.45 yards per carry against zone concept — the 2nd-highest mark among all RBs with more than 10 rush attempts. With JCM now fully taking over this backfield, there's no better breakout opportunity than against this Bears rush defence.

Suggested Pick:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt o67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 80+ Rushing Yards (+155)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 100+ Rushing Yards (+320)

 

WR Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel continues to be the focal point of Washington’s passing attack, especially with Terry McLaurin still sidelined with injury. The Bears are allowing the 3rd-fewest receptions (9.0) and the 15th-fewest receiving yards (139.5) per game to opposing WRs. With them running the 8th most man coverage, Deebo has seen the most opportunities of any Commanders receiver (10 targets) and is the only one with more than two receptions, hauling in six for a 60% catch rate and averaging 10.89 yards per reception. While those numbers show he’s been productive when targeted, they also highlight how heavily dependent the Washington offence is on him to generate movement against tighter coverage looks. Against Cover 2/Cover 2 man — in which the Bears run at top-10 rates — Deebo’s catch rate jumps to 83.3%, but his explosive plays dip, as he averages 8.6 yards per reception. Deebo lines up in the slot on 67.1% of his routes, which will be crucial this week. Against slot receivers, Chicago has faced the fewest targets (33) in the league, but when passes do connect, they’ve allowed the 8th-highest yards per reception (11.43). So, if big plays are the trick to a successful game plan this week, Deebo should get the ball in his hands a lot. Samuel has registered 6+ receptions in four of five games this season.

Suggested pick:

Deebo Samuel o5.5 Receptions (-140)

 

WR Jaylin Lane/Luke McCaffrey/Chris Moore

Here we are, yet again, waiting for one of the trio to emerge as the secondary option behind Deebo. Chris Moore continues to run the most snaps (58.2%) in Week 5, followed by Luke McCaffrey (40%) and Jaylin Lane (36.4%). But even with them seeing a decent amount of snaps, none of them saw above a 7% target share...which was just two targets. Like we did for Croskey-Merritt, we'll wait until one of these guys has a good game before suggesting any of these players – or the more realistic option, once Terry McLaurin returns.

Suggested pick:

Pass

 

TE Zach Ertz

Ertz had his first zero reception game for the first time since the 2014 season. But we can just chalk that up to a Chargers defence that's elite against TEs. This week, he plays the Bears defence, which allows the 2nd most receptions (7.3) and the 14th most receiving yards (51.8) per game to opposing TEs. Ertz lines up mostly in the slot (61.4%). Lining up in the slot opposite of Deebo should set up as another good option for Daniels to succeed through the air with. Against man coverage, Ertz isn't the greatest. However, against Cover 2 and Cover 2 man – in which the Bears run at top 10 rates – Ertz joins Deebo as the highest targeted Commanders receiver with six. However, he actually outproduces Deebo against the coverage, with more receiving yards (56), a 2.55 yards per route run and an 11.2 yards per reception. This, along with the donut last week, should amount to a big bounce-back week for Ertz in this matchup.

Suggested pick:

Zach Ertz o27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Zach Ertz 40+ Receiving Yards (+200)

We all remember the crazy finish to the game last season when Noah Brown caught the Hail Mary for the Commanders' victory. But let's not forget how good the Bears were at that point, sitting 4-2 with a strong chance to make the playoffs, and, just like they are this season, coming off the bye. That Hail Mary sparked a 10-game losing streak to end their season. You've got to imagine the Bears have some revenge on their minds, not to let this game slip away like they did last season. They may not secure the victory, but they will keep it close in what should be another Prime Time under.

Best Bet: Bears +5.5 -125
Lean: Under 49.5 -115
Score Prediction: Bears 20 Commanders 23

Anytime TD Picks

 

Best Pick: (Bears): Rome Odunze TD (+140)

Odunze has been a scoring machine. He has scored in all four games this season, totalling five receiving TDs. The Commanders struggle to keep WRs out of the end zone, allowing 1.2 receiving TDs per game to the position – the 6th most in the NFL.

 

Best Pick: (Commanders): Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+130)

Deebo has scored a TD in four of the five weeks this season, and all three of the games with Jayden Daniels under centre. The Bears allow 1.2 receiving TDs to opposing WRs per game, but more specifically, they have allowed five of those TDs to slot receivers, from which Deebo runs most of his routes. Deebo has a 30.3% first-read percentage and leads the Commanders in end zone targets.

 

1st TD Picks

 

Best Pick: (Bears) Luther Burden First TD (+3300)

We're running back Burden for a first TD in this matchup. Following the bye week, teams typically use that week to assess their rookies and work on how to get them more involved in the offence. If that's the case, and the book really isn't out on Burden yet, the always creative Ben Johnson could scheme something up early for Burden to find the end zone – and what a number if he does.

 

Best Pick: (Commanders) Jayden Daniels First TD (+1000)

Daniels has yet to find the end zone with his legs this season, which is odd considering he scored seven in his rookie season. He'll likely want to make a statement coming off the bye, also to prove that the Hail Mary wasn't a fluke. Of Daniels seven TDs from last season, just one was the first score of the game.

Parlay 1: (Bears) +280 odds on bet365

D'Andre Swift 2+ Receptions

Rome Odunze 60+ Receiving Yards

Cole Kmet 20+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 2: (Commanders) +300 odds on bet365

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 60+ Rushing Yards

Deebo Samuel 5+ Receptions

Zach Ertz 30+ Receiving Yards

QB Jalen Hurts

Well, we nailed the Eagles' passing offence, figuring it out last week, but we didn't anticipate it resulting in a loss. Hurts went 23/38 for 280 passing yards against a tough defence. This week, he gets the New York Giants, who allow the 6th-most completions (24.6), the 4th-most pass attempts (38.2) and the 10th-most passing yards (249.2) per game to opposing QBs. The Giants run the 2nd-most man coverage (42.7%), specifically Cover 1, which they run at the second-highest rate (37.4%). Against man coverage, Hurts has the 10th most passing yards (65.2) per game, the 11th-highest yards per attempt (7.58) and the 6th-highest QBR (128.6) of all QBs with at least 20 dropbacks against the coverage this season. Against Cover 1, Hurts has the 19th most passing yards (39), the 7th-highest yards per attempt (8.86) and the 3rd-highest QBR (126.1) of all QBs to face at least 15 dropbacks against the coverage. If you remember from last week, Hurts faced the Broncos, who ran the 2nd-most man coverage as of last week. So, it's safe to assume we can expect Hurts to have similar production as we saw last week (280 passing yards and two TDs) against a team that runs the same amount of man coverage, but doesn't have the same high-profile defence.

Suggested pick:

Jalen Hurts o196.5 Passing Yards (-110)

 

RB Saquon Barkley

So the production hasn't been there for Saquon all season, but now his opportunities are starting to diminish. Barkley saw just six rush attempts last week, turning that into 30 rushing yards – his lowest total as an Eagle. But this week, he faces his former team, the Giants, who allow the 12th-fewest rush attempts (19) but the 8th-highest rushing yards (106.6) per game. These numbers result in the Giants allowing a high yards per carry, ranking 4th-highest with an average of 5.34. The Giants run most of their rush defence snaps in man/gap (49.6%), to which they allow the highest yards per carry (6.42) in that coverage this season. This isn't fantastic for Barkley, as he averages 2.33 yards per carry against the coverage this season, which is 4.02 yards per carry difference from last year. Against the Giants last season, Barkley got his revenge, rushing for 176 yards on 17 attempts and a TD. He added two receptions and 11 receiving yards through the air as well. With a Super Bowl on their mind, the Eagles made the wise decision to rest Saquon for Week 18, instead of pursuing the NFL rushing record. That should remain on his mind, with now a new fire under him after struggling through the first five weeks of the season. I'm going back on my word when saying he needs to prove it to me before I back him again; however, I'm a sucker for a good narrative.

Suggested Pick:

Saquon Barkley TD (-150)

Saquon Barkley 2+ TDs (+333)

 

WR AJ Brown

Considering he mostly lined up against Pat Surtain, Brown did a pretty good job, catching five of his seven targets for 43 receiving yards. This week, he gets the Giants' defence, who are allowing the most receptions (14.8) and the second most receiving yards (184.8) to opposing WRs per game. With the Giants running so much man coverage, it should line up as a similar matchup as last week for him, except, you know, without the reigning DPOY covering him. Against man coverage this season, Brown has caught eight of 13 targets for 87 receiving yards and one TD. That leads the Eagles in receiving yards and yards after catch against the coverage. But this isn't new for Brown, as he had the second-highest PFF grade against the coverage last season, catching 35 of 51 targets for 538 receiving yards – the most receiving yards against man coverage in the NFL. While he won't be against Surtain this week, he will regularly line up against Paulson Adebo. It hasn't been a fantastic season for Adebo, as he has allowed 20 receptions on 31 targets for 207 receiving yards. That works out to be a 65% catch rate and 51.8 receiving yards allowed per game to the position. Against outside WRs, the Giants are targeted at the 4th-highest rate, and allow the 7th-highest catch rate (69%), but the 7th-lowest yards per reception (12.1). With Brown's targets still sky high – 33 in his last four games – his receptions line is a little too low at 4.5.

Suggested pick:

AJ Brown o4.5 Receptions (-140)

 

WR Devonta Smith

This matchup might be better for DeVonta Smith. Smith is coming off a massive day, catching eight of his 10 targets for 114 receiving yards. While Brown has historically been the better receiver against man coverage, Smith has caught up to him this season, catching seven of 11 targets for 74 receiving yards. But what we like best in this game for Smith in this matchup is his deep threat ability. I know, when you look at Brown and Smith, you figure that Brown is the deep threat, especially considering where these receivers line up: Brown on the outside and Smith in the slot. However, against man coverage, it's actually Smith who earns the higher aDoT at 11.2 compared to Brown's 8.3. That's nearly a three-yard difference in terms of targets. The Giants aren't great against outside WRs in terms of catch rate and receiving yards, but the opposite can be said about New York against slot receivers. The Giants allow the 5th-lowest catch rate (61.4%), but they allow the 8th-highest yards per reception (11.3) per game. Last week, against a man-heavy team, Smith had two receptions that went 20+ yards, and has a 20+ yard longest reception in three of five weeks.

Suggested pick:

DeVonta Smith o20+ Longest Recpetion (-135)

 

TE Dallas Goedert

Goedert just can't stop finding the end zone, scoring in four TDs in his last three games. Last week, he caught three of his seven targets for just 19 receiving yards. This week, Goedert gets the Giants' defence, who are targeted at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL, but allow the 12th-fewest receptions (5.0) and 7th-fewest receiving yards (37.2) per game to opposing TEs. Goedert lines up in the slot/in-line on 90.2% of his routes. Against slot/in-line receivers, the Giants allow the 5th-lowest catch rate (63.1%). For Goedert to clear his line of 3.5 receptions, he would need to see at least seven targets. He has seen seven targets in two of his four games this season; however, in a game where the Eagles are seven-point favourites against a team that struggles the most against opposing WRs, it might be a slow night for Goedert.

Suggested pick:

Dallas Goedert u3.5 Receptions (+125)

QB Jaxson Dart

Jaxson Dart has quietly become one of the more aggressive young dual-threat QBs in the league, and this week sets up for another high-volume rushing performance. The Eagles generate pressure on 40.5% of dropbacks (fourth in the NFL), and Dart’s production splits under pressure tell the story — his CPOE drops from +5.1% to +1.7%, and his YPA falls from 5.56 to 4.57 when the pocket collapses. Against a front anchored by Jalen Carter and Haason Reddick, Dart will be flushed out often and forced to extend plays with his legs. Through his first two starts, he’s averaged 7.5 designed rushes per game and 54.5 rushing yards, including a long of 23 against New Orleans. The Eagles’ secondary limits explosive downfield opportunities, ranking top five in yards allowed per coverage snap (4.52), which should push Dart toward more scrambles and bootlegs. Expect New York to scheme multiple RPO and rollout looks to simplify reads against Philly’s two-high shells. With his decisiveness and willingness to run rather than take sacks, Dart should clear 32.5 rushing yards comfortably in what will likely be a heavy-pressure environment.

Suggested Play:

'O' 36.5 Rush Yards (-120)

 

RB Cam Skattebo

Cam Skattebo has been the Giants’ offensive stabilizer, leading the team in both total touches and yards after contact over the past three games. Against a Philadelphia defense that allows just 97.6 rushing yards per game (10th) but the eighth-most receiving yards per game to RBs (41.0), his biggest value comes as a checkdown option. The Eagles have struggled to contain backs on angle routes and quick swings — Kyren Williams posted 2/18/1 receiving and logged another 4 targets in Week 3, mostly against zone looks. Philadelphia’s linebackers sit deep to protect against intermediate crossers, leaving plenty of space underneath. Skattebo has averaged 3.2 yards per route run when lined up wide or in the flat, and his target share on early downs has grown to 15% since Tyrone Tracy’s injury. Expect Brian Daboll to rely on Skattebo in the passing game to slow down Philly’s rush, especially with Jaxson Dart’s internal clock still developing. If the Giants trail, this bet looks even better — Skattebo has averaged 5.8 targets per game when New York is behind by a touchdown or more.

Suggested Play:

'O' 2.5 Receptions (+130)

 

WR Darius Slayton

Despite limited production last week, Darius Slayton remains New York’s best vertical threat. Before exiting with a hamstring tweak against the Saints, he accounted for two deep targets (20+ air yards), including one that should’ve gone for a long touchdown. Slayton still owns a 32.5% share of the team’s air yards and averages 15.4 yards per target against man coverage. Philadelphia, while strong up front, has been surprisingly leaky on the boundary — their corners have allowed the seventh-most completions of 20+ yards to perimeter receivers this season. The Eagles use man coverage on 21.6% of snaps, and Slayton has historically done his best work versus single coverage, posting 2.3 yards per route run in those looks this year. With Malik Nabers out, Slayton’s route tree has shifted — 39% of his routes are now go or post routes. If he plays through his hamstring issue, he’s the only receiver on this roster capable of testing Philly deep. Given Dart’s growing comfort on play-action rollouts and Slayton’s 4.39 speed, one clean pocket is all it takes for this to cash.

Suggested Play:

'O' 21.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

 

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

 

Philadelphia’s zone-heavy coverage is a nightmare for players like Wan’Dale Robinson who rely on underneath separation rather than deep routes. The Eagles are allowing the fewest yards per route run to slot receivers (.84) and the second-fewest receiving yards per game (39.4) from that alignment. Robinson has run 70% of his routes from the slot, and his average depth of target (ADOT) sits at just 4.1 yards. His longest catch in any of the last three games is 13 yards. The Eagles’ scheme under Vic Fangio prioritizes minimizing yards after the catch — they’ve allowed only 3.4 YAC per reception to slot receivers, the fifth-lowest in football. Expect Robinson’s receptions to come on quick outs, bubble screens, and short slants designed to move the chains rather than stretch the field. Unless he breaks multiple tackles on a fluke play, he’s unlikely to exceed 17.5 yards on any single grab.

Suggested Play:

'O' 17.5 Yard Longest Reception (-135)

 

TE Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson’s chemistry with Jaxson Dart has quietly become the focal point of New York’s red zone passing attack. Over the past two games, Johnson has led the Giants in first-read share (26.2%), red-zone target share (40%), and routes run inside the 10-yard line. Despite averaging just 6.6 yards per reception, his size (6’6”, 259 lbs) and box-out ability make him a clear end-zone weapon. The Eagles have been strong against tight ends overall (third-fewest yards per game allowed), but the one soft spot has been near the goal line — they’ve conceded three touchdowns to TEs in the last four games, all on seam or stick concepts against Cover 6. Dart has shown a tendency to look for Johnson on half-roll flood designs, particularly when flushed right. Given Philadelphia’s pressure rate and tendency to collapse pockets quickly, those red-zone improvisations play directly into Johnson’s skill set. 

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+360)

The Eagles are coming off a disappointing loss to the Broncos but coming into this one Barkley will be healthy and they will be playing the Giants without Malik Nabors who suffered a season ending ACL injury in Week 3. In the 1 game without him this year they lost to the Saints 14-26. Yeah the damn Saints beat them by double digits. Prior to last week Hurts had won 18 consecutive games and I expect him to bounce back and crush this Giants team tonight. Now in terms of the total. I think Barkley will run a lot of the clock and the Eagles generating such a pressure rate on defense is concerning for Rookie Jaxson Dart. Give me the Eagles to cover the -6.5 and the Giants to go under 17.5 total points.

Best Bet: Eagles -6.5 -133
Lean: Giants 'U' 17.5 -150
Score Prediction Eagles 24 Giants 10

Anytime TD Picks

 

Best Pick: (Eagles): Saquon Barkley TD (-150)

For how bad he's been this season, Barkley has scored a TD in four of five games. The Giants are averaging a TD allowed per game to opposing RBs, which is the 5th-highest in the league. Saquon has the breakaway speed to burst out a long run to the end zone, especially against his former team, who's allowing such a high yards per carry against their favourite coverage.

 

Best Bet: (Giants) Theo Johnson +360

Theo Johnson’s chemistry with Jaxson Dart has quietly become the focal point of New York’s red zone passing attack. Over the past two games, Johnson has led the Giants in first-read share (26.2%), red-zone target share (40%), and routes run inside the 10-yard line. Despite averaging just 6.6 yards per reception, his size (6’6”, 259 lbs) and box-out ability make him a clear end-zone weapon. The Eagles have been strong against tight ends overall (third-fewest yards per game allowed), but the one soft spot has been near the goal line — they’ve conceded three touchdowns to TEs in the last four games, all on seam or stick concepts against Cover 6. Dart has shown a tendency to look for Johnson on half-roll flood designs, particularly when flushed right. Given Philadelphia’s pressure rate and tendency to collapse pockets quickly, those red-zone improvisations play directly into Johnson’s skill set. 

 

1st TD Picks

 

Best Pick: (Eagles) DeVonta Smith First TD (+1200)

Smith has only one TD all season. That came late in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3. But diving into the stats, when the Eagles decide to throw in the red zone, Smith has earned the most end zone targets at two. While it's not a lot, it should say something that he is commanding more targets than Brown, who's the big, physical WR who you should trust to win a jump ball. Smith has a 27.7% first-read target so far this season.

 

Best Bet: (Giants) Cam Skattebo +680

New York’s offense under Jaxson Dart has leaned on condensed formations and power-zone concepts in the opening drives of games. They’ve opened each of their last two contests with 7+ rushes on their first possession, and Dart himself has used play-action off that look to set up Skattebo screens and draws. Given that Skattebo averages 3.4 yards after contact per carry and has forced a missed tackle on 24% of his rushes this season, he’s the most likely Giant to punch one in first if they get near the red zone early. Expect Brian Daboll to test Philadelphia’s interior with Skattebo in the opening sequence — and if the Giants’ first drive crosses midfield, he has every chance to finish it off.

Parlay 1: (Eagles) +220 odds on bet365

Philadelphia Eagles ML

Saquon Barkley TD

DeVonta Smith 50+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Giants): +560

Cam Skattebo ATD

Wan'Dale Robinson 'U' 43.5 Receiving Yards

Jaxson Dart 'O' 36.5 Rush Yards

QB Bo Nix

Last week felt like Bo Nix's statement win in the NFL, the way he led his team in the fourth quarter against the undefeated reigning Super Bowl Champions. This week, he gets the New York Jets, who are fairly good against opposing QBs. They allow the 6th-fewest completions (18.2) and pass attempts (28), and the 9th-fewest passing yards (214.2) per game to opposing QBs. The Jets run the 6th-most man coverage this season at 34.8% of their snaps, running Cover 0, Cover 1 and Cover 2 Man all at a top-10 rate in the league. Of the 39 QBs who've faced at least 10 dropbacks against man coverage, Nix has the 17th-highest completion percentage (65.5%), the 14th-highest yards per attempt (7.55) and the 20th-best QBR. Against Cover 1, in which the Jets run the most (25.3%) of their snaps, Nix has the 12th highest completion percentage (65%) and yards per attempt (7.65) and a 100.6 QBR. Looking into Nix's five opponents this season, they faced three teams that rank in the top half of man coverage teams: the Colts, Bengals and Eagles. In those three weeks, Nix sees his completion percentage, yards per attempt and QBR all increase from his season-long numbers. He has also seen six of his eight passing TDs against these man-heavy teams. The Jets are allowing the 4th-most passing TDs (2.2) per game to opposing QBs. And if trends are to repeat themselves, Nix should have multiple this week, as here are his PTD game logs this season: 1, 3, 1, 2, 1.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix o1.5 Passing TDs (-105)

 

RB JK Dobbins

JK Dobbins had another strong outing against a tough Eagles defence, rushing for 79 yards on 20 rush attempts. This week, he gets the Jets, who allow the 3rd-most rush attempts (25.4) and the 7th-most rushing yards (109) per game to opposing RBs. New York runs majority zone concept rush defence (49%), which they allow a 4.39 yards per carry. Against man/gap, in which they run at just 30.6%, and allow a 3.83 yards per carry – the 9th fewest. Dobbins has faced man/gap more, but performs better against zone concept, averaging a 6.45 yards per carry – the highest of any RB with over 12 rush attempts against the coverage this season. Dobbins continues to dominate snap share out of the backfield, playing 54.3% of the snaps to Harvey's 21.4% in Week 5, but had 20 carries to Harvey's four. Until we see Harvey start cutting into Dobbins' workload, we will continue to back the No. 1 back in Denver.

Suggested Pick:

JK Dobbins o68.5 Rush Yards (-110)

 

WR Courtland Sutton

Sutton had his heaviest volume of the season, catching eight of 10 targets for 99 receiving yards against a tough Eagles pass defence. This week, he'll face off against the Jets, who allow the 6th-fewest receptions (10), but the 12th-highest receiving yards (157.8) per game to opposing WRs. With the Jets being a man-heavy team, this should be another good week for Sutton, as he has the highest PFF grade of all Broncos WRs. Sutton also sees his yards after catch per reception (3.1 -> 6.8) increase, despite seeing his aDoT (13.5 -> 8.4) decrease when going from zone to man coverage. Looking at this, the Broncos like to utilize Sutton in the shorter area of the field and let him turn and burn on opponents, which is great against man coverage. Sutton lines up on the outside 76% of his routes, and is projected to be shadowed by Sauce Gardner. Garnder has been good at limiting receptions against him, allowing just 10 receptions on 20 targets through five games. However, when he does allow a reception, it's usually a long one, having allowed a reception of 30+ yards in three of his five games. It might be a quieter night for Sutton against Sauce, with the exception of a few deep targets, in which he should come down with. Sutton leads the Broncos in contested targets (10) and has a 60% contested catch rate.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton o23.5 Longest Reception (-115)

Courtland Sutton 30+ Longest Reception (+190)

 

WR Troy Franklin

Franklin continues to see the second-most snaps of the Broncos' WRs, so we should continue to treat him as such. Last week, Franklin saw 57.1% of the snaps and turned that into three catches on four targets for 35 receiving yards and a massive two-point conversion, which gave the Broncos the lead in the fourth quarter. Franklin has an impressive 83.3% catch rate (5/6) against man coverage, but has only turned that into 28 receiving yards and a disappointing 1.17 yards per route run. Franklin lines up in the slot 61% of his routes and will likely draw the Malachi Moore matchup. Moore really hasn't been tested much this season, but has allowed four receptions on five targets for 72 receiving yards. Against slot WRs as a whole, the Jets are targeted at the 3rd-highest rate, with a 0.24 targets per route run. However, they've turned that into the 10th-lowest catch rate (67.4%). But like they do against receivers out wide, the Jets just can't stop the big plays against slot receivers. They allow the 2nd-highest yards per route run (2.15), yards per target (8.88), yards after catch per reception (7.76) and the highest yards per reception (13.17) to slot WRs. I hate to suggest the same thing as we did for Sutton, but this Jets defence are really good at limiting volume, but can't contain the big play. Franklin has a 20+ reception in three of four games this season. If you like Mims in this matchup, we don't mind targeting him either, as he's the more prototypical deep threat in this offence. The concern is whether he'll get the snaps necessary in this contest.

Suggested pick:

Troy Franklin o18.5 Longest Reception (-110)

Troy Franklin 30+ Longest Reception (+270)

 

TE Evan Engram

Slowly but surely, Engram is improving in this Broncos offence – and I certainly mean slowly. He caught four of five targets for 33 receiving yards – four more than the previous week – and the game-tying TD. This week, he'll get the Jets, who allow the 13th-most receptions (5.4) and the 9th-fewest receiving yards (40.4) per game to opposing TEs. Last week, Engram ran most of his routes from the in-line position. Against in-line receivers, the Jets are targeted at a bottom-10 rate, and allow an 81.1% catch rate – while that looks impressive, it ranks in the middle of the league. With all that in mind, Engram's line of 2.5 receptions is just too low, considering he's seen his volume increase week over week, and he has caught 3+ balls in three of four weeks this season.

Suggested pick:

Evan Engram o2.5 Receptions (-145)

QB Justin Fields

Fields is averaging 188.5 passing yards per game, 7.11 YPA, a 67% completion rate and 4 total passing TDs. He’s averaging 7.8 rushing attempts for 51 yards on the ground and 3 rushing TDs. He’ll face the Broncos in London, who are 7^th in EPA/Pass allowed. The Broncos have the 6^th highest blitz rate (34.2%) and the highest sack rate (10.6%). Fields is averaging 8.20 YPA, and a 56.7% completion rate against the blitz. That compares to 6.68 YPA and 71.1% completion rate when not blitzed. The Broncos have played man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL this season (43.7%). They were top 5 in man frequency last year. Fields has faced man coverage on just 21 of his dropbacks, where he’s averaging 8.59 YPA, a 76.5% completion rate and all 4 of his TDs. Fields had negative splits against man coverage last season, so I’m not buying this season’s trend in a short sample size. In terms of the rushing matchup, the Broncos have limited every QB they have faced to single digit rushing yards. That includes Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and Daniel Jones, all mobile QBs. I’m fading Fields this week.

Suggested Pick:

Under 241.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-114)

 

RB Breece Hall

In Hall’s first game post Braelon Allen injury, Breece handled 14 of the 15 RB rush attempts. Isaiah Davis stepped in as the pass catching back, running 23 routes to Breece Hall’s 19. Breece was productive, rushing for 113 yards and catching 4 of 5 targets for 42 receiving yards. He had the one blemish fumbling in the red zone, but Breece looks healthy with a sizable role. He’s averaging 70.2 rushing yards per game on 5.32 YPC. He’s number 1 in the league in explosive run rate at 16.7%. He has yet to score a TD, but I expect his time to come soon. He’ll face a Broncos defense that is 6^th best in EPA/Rush allowed and has allowed the 5^th fewest rushing yards per game. The Broncos are allowing 1.56 yards before contact per attempt, but have struggled with tackling, allowing the 5^th most yards after contact per attempt (2.58). They have sizable splits between man/gap concepts and zone concepts. They are allowing a 57.4% success rate and 5.06 YPC against man/gap, compared to 3.5 YPC and a 42.1% success rate against zone. 78.8% of Breece Hall’s attempts have been zone concept, so this may be a tough matchup from a schematic perspective. As 7.5-point underdogs, game script could be a negative factor as well. The Broncos have been susceptible to backfields in the receiving game, as they have allowed the 3^rd most receiving yards per game and rank 2^nd worst in EPA/Pass allowed to opposing backfields. I would fade his rushing but like his receiving.

Suggested Pick:

Under 67.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Anytime TD (+165)

 

WR Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson is averaging 76.4 receiving yards per game, 2.10 YPRR and he’s been targeted on 25% of his routes. His 44.7% 1^st-read rate is the highest in the entire league. This will be a tough matchup against Pat Surtain and the Broncos elite passing defense. They are 7^th best in EPA/Pass allowed and have allowed the 8^th fewest passing yards per game. Besides Quentin Johnston, no WR1 has more than 43 receiving yards in this matchup through 5 weeks. The Broncos have the 6^th highest blitz rate (34.2%) and the highest sack rate (10.6%). Garrett is averaging an insane 3.51 YPRR, 38% TPRR and a 56.7% 1^st-read rate against the blitz. The Broncos have played man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL this season (43.7%). They were top 5 in man frequency last year. Wilson also has insane positive splits against man this season, averaging 3.96 YPRR, 32% TPRR and a 44.4% 1^st-read rate. He had slightly positive splits against man last season. Despite the positive splits from a schematic perspective, I’m fading Wilson here as Surtain is on another level compared to the matchups against the Dolphins and Cowboys last 2 weeks.

Suggested Pick:

Under 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Josh Reynolds

Reynolds has played 3 weeks and has the 3^rd highest route rate (75%) behind Mason Taylor and Garrett Wilson. He has caught 4 of his 6 total targets for 32 receiving yards. He had his most productive game of the season last week against the Cowboys, catching 3 of 4 targets for 29 receiving yards. The Broncos are 7^th best in EPA/Pass allowed and have allowed the 8^th fewest passing yards per game. We don’t have much other data to go off of with such little target share, but this could be a sneaky spot due to the Pat Surtain on Garrett Wilson effect. We have seen secondary and tertiary receiving options pick up some volume in this matchup throughout the season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Reynolds build off his best game of the season this week in a losing game script (7.5-point underdogs).

Suggested Pick:

Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

 

TE Mason Taylor

Through 3 weeks, the Jets rookie tight end ran a route on 71.8% of dropbacks but averaged just 14.3 receiving yards per game. He was targeted on just 12% of his routes. Week 4 was his breakout week. He caught 5 of 7 targets for 65 receiving yards. He was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate and target share at 33.3% and 25.9% respectively.  Taylor built on that momentum in week 5, catching 9 of 12 targets for 65 yards against the Cowboys. He was targeted on 27% of his routes and was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.8%. The only TE to have any success against the Broncos this season was Tyler Warren, who caught 4 receptions for 79 yards. The Broncos have played man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL this season (43.7%). They were top 5 in man frequency last year. Taylor has run 24 routes, catching 2 of 3 targets for -3 receiving yards against man. The Broncos also have the 6^th highest blitz rate (34.2%). Taylor has ran 45 routes against the blitz, catching 2 of 4 targets for 35 yards. Small sample sizes to put too much emphasis on these negative splits, but I feel confident that it’s not a smash spot like last week. Expecting Taylor to come back to earth this week.

Suggested Pick:

Under 4.5 Receptions (-165)

This Jets team is awful. Nix is 5-8 in his career on the road but mostly all against very good teams. In these ganes the Broncos average 20.6 points per game and the total of these games averaged 43.1. Such a tough game here in my opinion. I get this will be played @London. I expect a higher scoring game here.

Best Bet: Over 42.5 -110
Lean: Broncos -6.5 -140
Score Prediction Broncos 27 Jets 20 

Anytime TD Picks

 

Best Pick: (Broncos): Evan Engram TD (+400)

I know, we haven't been the biggest fans of Engram in a Broncos uniform yet this season, but as we mentioned, he might be turning a corner now. Franklin leads the team with seven red zone targets, but Engram's three is pretty impressive considering he missed time. Also, the Jets are averaging a TD per game to opposing TEs this season – one in Week 1 (Jonnu Smith), zero in Weeks 2 and 3, two in Week 4 (Darren Waller), and two in Week 5 (Jake Ferguson).

 

Breece Hall (Jets) +175

Breece handled 14 of 15 RB rush attempts in the 1^st game without Braelon Allen. This is a tough matchup in both the passing and running game, but I like the role here for Breece to finally find the endzone. He also has upside in the receiving game, and the Broncos have struggled against RBs in this department.

 

1st TD Picks

 

Best Pick: (Broncos) Marvin Mims First TD (+1600)

We're chatting a bunch about long receptions in this game, so why not target the Broncos' true deep target to capitalize early? The Jets have allowed the first TD in all five of their contests this season, four of which have come through the air. And if we're following trends. Mims seems to score in every even week this season – scoring a 23-yard TD against the Colts in Week 2 and a 16-yard rushing TD against the Bengals in Week 4. Let history repeat itself, and let's see Mims find the end zone first in this contest.

 

Breece Hall (Jets) +1100

Same analysis as above, larger role for Breece after Allen’s injury, especially at the goal line. They preferred Braelon there, but that will be Breece’s role now. The Jets have the highest rush rate over expected. They will pound the rock early!

Parlay 1: (Broncos) +250 odds on bet365

Denver Broncos -6.5

Bo Nix 2+ Passing TDs

JK Dobbins 60+ Rushing Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Jets) +747

Breece Hall Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

Breece Hall Under 68.5 Rushing Yards

Breece Hall Anytime TD

QB Dillon Gabriel

Dillon Gabriel showed poise and rhythm in his first NFL start, delivering two touchdown passes and protecting the football despite a relentless Minnesota front. His quick decision-making was on display, but the challenge now intensifies against a Pittsburgh defense that blitzes on 37.3% of dropbacks—fourth-highest in the league. Under pressure last week, Gabriel averaged just 3.08 yards per attempt and a -18.2% completion percentage over expected, underscoring how much pocket disruption can alter his efficiency. Fortunately, Pittsburgh’s aggressiveness has come at a cost: the Steelers are allowing 282.8 passing yards per game, second-most in the NFL, and have surrendered multiple touchdown passes in every outing. Gabriel’s comfort in quick-game concepts and play-action rollouts should help him neutralize pressure while creating chunk plays to his tight ends and backs. Expect Cleveland to lean on his accuracy in the short and intermediate windows to attack Pittsburgh’s linebackers in coverage.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+395)

 

RB Quinshon Judkins

Quinshon Judkins continues to establish himself as the Browns’ offensive engine, handling 23 of the team’s 32 rushing attempts in Week 5 and eclipsing 100 yards on the ground for the first time in his career. His violent running style and sharp vision between the tackles have allowed him to generate consistent yardage even behind a struggling offensive line. Judkins has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over his last three games and forced a missed tackle on over a quarter of his attempts. Against a Steelers defense giving up 4.0 yards per carry and the 11th-most rushing yards per game, his downhill approach should wear on the front seven. Pittsburgh’s run-stop win rate ranks middle of the pack, and their linebackers have been caught out of position on zone runs—a concept that Cleveland employs heavily. With a clear edge in volume and short-yardage work, Judkins remains the Browns’ most likely source of offensive scoring production.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+120)

 

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy’s chemistry with Gabriel is still developing, but the matchup with Pittsburgh presents an opportunity for a rebound. Despite modest production last week, Jeudy’s route participation remained elite at 89%, and his quickness against off coverage could expose the Steelers’ reliance on single-high safety looks. Pittsburgh’s secondary has been one of the league’s most permissive, allowing the third-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts and regularly giving up explosive plays off crossing routes and double moves. Jeudy has historically fared well against man-heavy coverage schemes, using his sharp footwork to separate at the top of routes. With Cleveland likely to face multiple third-and-medium situations, look for Gabriel to funnel intermediate targets toward Jeudy, who remains the Browns’ best separator and route technician.

Suggested Play:

'O' 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Isaiah Bond

Isaiah Bond has quickly become a focal point of the Browns’ passing attack since Cedric Tillman landed on injured reserve, earning a 21% target share and showcasing his ability to stretch the field vertically. His speed threatens defenses on deep posts and seams, and the Steelers’ coverage tendencies could leave those windows open. Pittsburgh runs single-high coverage on 63.4% of snaps and has been repeatedly burned by vertical threats, giving up the second-most receptions per game and multiple completions of 20+ yards in every contest. Bond’s ability to create after the catch also adds to his upside, particularly on designed motion routes and play-action shots. With Gabriel showing a willingness to attack deep zones when the pocket holds, Bond could strike for one explosive play that breaks this prop wide open.

Suggested Play:

'O' 15.5 Yard Longest Reception (-115)

 

TE David Njoku

David Njoku’s connection with Dillon Gabriel was instant, leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards while adding a touchdown in Week 5. His athleticism and physicality make him a mismatch against linebackers, and the Steelers’ defense has consistently struggled to contain athletic tight ends working across the middle. Pittsburgh’s coverage unit allows the ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends and an 11.8 yards-per-reception average, largely due to blown assignments in their Cover 1 and Cover 3 looks. Njoku has run a route on nearly 80% of dropbacks since Gabriel took over, and his 24% target share in the red zone makes him the quarterback’s primary scoring outlet near the goal line. Expect Cleveland to use play-action and bootleg concepts to get Njoku isolated against slower coverage defenders, creating prime touchdown opportunities.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+210)

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is averaging 196.5 passing yards per game, 7.28 YPA, a 68.5% completion rate and has thrown 8 total TDs. He’ll face a Browns defense that is 11^th worst in EPA/Pass allowed but has allowed the 4^th fewest passing yards per game (172.2). Cleveland is tied for 10^th in pressure rate at 41.3%. Rodgers averages 7.78 YPA, a 78.2% completion rate and a 123.7 QB rating when not pressured. That compares to 5.97 YPA, a 43.3% completion rate and a 46.4 QB rating when pressured. They have played man coverage at the 4^th highest rate (40%).  Against man coverage, Rodgers averages 4.18 YPA and a 55.9% completion rate. The Browns have played single-high at the 5^th highest rate (61.3%). Rodgers averages 6.12 YPA and a 65.4% completion rate against single-high. This is a bearish matchup from a schematic perspective, I’m fading Rodgers.

Suggested Pick:

Under 212.5 Pass Yards (-115)

Under 20.5 Completions (-105)

 

RB Jaylen Warren

Warren missed week 4 and had a bye last week, he should be full systems go in week 6 against the Browns. He had full control of this backfield in week 3, with a 77.6% snap share. Gainwell played well week 4 in his absence, I wouldn’t expect a bell cow role for Warren in his return, but maybe a 60-40 split. Warren is averaging 44 rushing yards per game on 3.07 YPC (5^th worst amongst RBs with 25+ carries). He’ll face a Browns defense that is allowing the least rushing yards per game (75.6) and the least YPC (2.98). The other aspect to consider here is Warren in the receiving game. He’s averaging 47.3 receiving yards per game, 4.44 YPRR and 38% TPRR. He has just a 33% route rate on the season, but it got up to 45.8% his last game. The Browns are the toughest matchup in the league in terms of EPA/Pass allowed and are allowing the 2^nd fewest receiving YPG to opposing backfields.

Suggested Pick:

Under 48.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Under 14.5 Rush Attempts (-132)

 

WR DK Metcalf

DK is averaging 65.3 receiving yards per game, 2.51 YPRR and 21% TPRR. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 26.7%. He’s ran 76.9% of his routes out wide and 23.1% from the slot. The Browns are allowing the 13^th fewest receiving yards per game to wide alignment, and the 11^th fewest to the slot. They have run man coverage at a 40% frequency, 4^th highest. They have also run single-high safeties 61.3% of the time, 5^th highest. DK averages just 0.71 YPRR and 14% TPRR against man coverage this season. DK averaged 2.17 YPRR against man compared to 1.98 YPRR against zone last season with the Seahawks. Against single-high, DK is averaging 2.4 YPRR and 28% TPRR this season. That compares to 2.60 YPRR and 16% TPRR against two-high. DK saw a higher target rate with similar production against single-high last season with the Seahawks. This game has the lowest implied total on the slate, not expecting a lot of offense in this one.

Suggested Pick:

Under 53.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

 

WR Calvin Austin

Calvin Austin is averaging 34.8 receiving yards per game, 1.51 YPRR and 17% TPRR. He’s 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 18.7%. He’s ran 52.2% of his routes out wide and 45.7% from the slot. The Browns are allowing the 13^th fewest receiving yards per game to wide alignment, and the 11^th fewest to the slot. They have run man coverage at a 40% frequency, 4^th highest. They have also run single-high safeties 61.3% of the time, 5^th highest. Austin sees positive splits against man coverage, averaging 1.81 YPRR and 23% TPRR this season. Austin averaged 1.18 YPRR against man, compared to 1.67 YPRR against zone last season in a larger sample size. Against single-high, Austin is averaging 1.61 YPRR and 21% TPRR. That compares to 1.44 YPRR and 15% TPRR against two-high. Austin had negative splits against single-high last season in a larger sample size. This game has the lowest implied total on the slate, not expecting a lot of offense. Calvin Austin is questionable with a shoulder injury, he currently does not have lines open. If he misses, Skowronek and Roman Wilson likely factor in.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

TE Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith

Through 4 games, Jonnu Smith has a 53.3% route rate and is averaging 17.8 receiving yards per game. Freiermuth has a 45.1% route rate and is averaging 16.3 yards per game. They both primarily run their routes from the slot and inline. The Browns are allowing the 11^th fewest receiving yards per game to the slot and the 14^th fewest to inline. They have run man coverage at a 40% frequency, 4^th highest. They have also run single-high safeties 61.3% of the time, 5^th highest. Freiermuth is 2^nd on the team in receiving yards against man, catching 3 of 5 targets for 41 yards. Jonnu has caught 4 of 4 targets for just 4 receiving yards against man. Freiermuth and Jonnu had better splits against zone last season. Freiermuth has positive splits against single-high this season, averaging 2.13 YPRR and 29% TPRR. Jonnu has negative splits averaging just 0.71 YPRR and 19% TPRR. Freiermuth had negative splits against single-high in a larger sample size last season. Jonnu had positive splits against single-high last season with the Dolphins. This game has the lowest implied total on the slate, not expecting a lot of offense.

Suggested Pick:

Jonnu Smith Under 14.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)

Gabriel looked very good in his first career start and he has a great defense to back him up. Don't think Steelers have much success here but at the same time Mike Tomlim always has something under his sleeve. Give me a VERY low scoring game.

Best Bet: Steelers 'U' 23.5 Pts -135
Lean: Under 38.5 -125
Score Prediction Browns 17 Steelers 14

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Browns): Quinshon Judkins +120

Quinshon Judkins continues to establish himself as the Browns’ offensive engine, handling 23 of the team’s 32 rushing attempts in Week 5 and eclipsing 100 yards on the ground for the first time in his career. His violent running style and sharp vision between the tackles have allowed him to generate consistent yardage even behind a struggling offensive line. Judkins has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over his last three games and forced a missed tackle on over a quarter of his attempts. Against a Steelers defense giving up 4.0 yards per carry and the 11th-most rushing yards per game, his downhill approach should wear on the front seven. Pittsburgh’s run-stop win rate ranks middle of the pack, and their linebackers have been caught out of position on zone runs—a concept that Cleveland employs heavily. With a clear edge in volume and short-yardage work, Judkins remains the Browns’ most likely source of offensive scoring production.

 

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +160

Metcalf has scored a TD in 3 straight games, and I want to attack the Browns through the passing game as opposed to their number 1 ranked rush defense. DK is Rodgers’ top option, especially near the endzone. I don’t like a lot of offense in this game overall, but if we’re choosing 1 guy, I’m going with Rodger’s top receiver.

 

1st TD Picks

Longshot (Browns): David Njoku +2230

David Njoku has been the heartbeat of Cleveland’s passing game since Dillon Gabriel took over at quarterback, emerging as his most trusted red-zone weapon. Njoku’s combination of size, burst, and body control makes him a natural first-read target when the Browns approach the goal line, and his 24% red-zone target share reflects that growing chemistry. Pittsburgh’s defense has been vulnerable early in games, allowing opening-drive touchdowns in three of their last four contests, often the result of linebackers getting exposed in coverage. With the Steelers leaning on single-high looks over 60% of the time, Njoku’s ability to find soft spots on seam routes and crossers gives him a clear path to early scoring opportunities. Expect Cleveland to script quick play-action shots and RPOs to get Gabriel on the move, looking to Njoku inside the 10-yard line. His red-zone usage and matchup advantage make him a strong candidate to strike first.

 

DK Metcalf (Steelers) +750

Same analysis as anytime, again I think this game will be ugly. Rodgers always locks in on his top target near the end zone and DK has the build to catch contested passes. All of DK’s TDs this season have come in the 1^st half.

Parlay #1 (Browns): +750

David Njoku ATD

Dillon Gabriel 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs

Parlay #2 (Steelers) +412

Aaron Rodgers Under 210.5 Passing Yards

Jaylen Warren Under 45.5 Rushing Yards

DK Metcalf Under 55.5 Receiving Yards

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Through 5 games, Tua is averaging 201.6 passing yards per game, 6.72 YPA, a 70.7% completion rate and 10 total passing TDs. He’ll face a Chargers defense that is the 10^th toughest against the pass in terms of EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 5^th fewest passing yards per game. The Chargers are blitzing at the 7^th lowest rate (20.1%) but have the 10^th highest pressure rate (41.3%). Tua is averaging 4.49 YPA and a 56.8% completion rate against pressure, compared to 7.45 YPA and a 75.2% completion rate when not pressure. The Chargers top 2 coverages this season have been Cover 3 (35.4%) and Cover 4 (23.3%). Tua averages 7.17 YPA and a 63.8% completion rate against these 2 coverages. That compares to 6.43 YPA and a 75% completion rate against all other coverages. Tua looked good in his first game without Tyreek Hill last week, throwing for 256 yards and 3 TDs last week against the Panthers. However, I’m not as bullish on Tua this week against a tougher Chargers matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Under 221.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150)

 

RB De’Von Achane

Achane is averaging 52.4 rushing yards per game on 4.37 YPC. He’ll face a Chargers defense that is 19^th in EPA/Rush allowed and allowing the 6^th most YPC (4.79). They have also allowed the 7^th highest explosive run rate (7.1%). Bill gashed them for 111 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns last week. Achane is also one of the most dynamic RBs in the receiving game. He’s run a route on 70.9% of dropbacks, averaging 34.6 receiving YPG. He’s averaging 1.40 YPRR and has been targeted on 26% of routes. He’s tied with CMC with 3 receiving TDs. He’ll face a Chargers defense that hasn’t been tested much against receiving backs, but Bill caught 2 receptions for 39 yards against them last week. They rank 11^th best in EPA/Pass allowed against opposing backfields. The Chargers top 2 coverages this season have been Cover 3 (35.4%) and Cover 4 (23.3%). Achane averages 1.33 YPRR and 23% TPRR against these 2 coverages this season. Achane had negative splits against these 2 coverages in a larger sample size last season as well. I’m not particularly excited for Achane in this matchup, but I don’t mind his anytime TD value, as he’s scored in 4 of 5 games this season.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime TD (+100)

 

WR Jaylen Waddle

In the first game without Tyreek Hill, Waddle caught 6 of 9 targets for 110 receiving yards and a TD. He was clearly the number 1 option with a 34.6% 1^st-read rate. He now has 252 receiving yards in his last 2 games without Tyreek. Waddle lined up out wide on 74.2% of his routes and 25.8% in the slot. The Chargers are allowing the 4^th fewest YPRR to wide alignment, but the 11^th most YPRR to the slot. They have, however, given up some big games to opposing number 1 options. Sutton had 118 receiving yards, Deebo had 96 and Hollywood Brown had 99 in a game where Worthy got hurt. The Chargers top 2 coverages this season have been Cover 3 (35.4%) and Cover 4 (23.3%). Waddle has positive splits against these 2 coverages, averaging 2.85 YPRR, 24% TPRR and a 33.3% 1^st-read rate. That compares to 1.68 YPRR, 22% TPRR and 24.6% 1^st-read rate against all other coverages.

Suggested Pick:

Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Anytime TD (+165)

 

WR Malik Washington

Despite Tyreek suffering a season-ending injury, the role did not change for Malik in week 5. He had a 60% route rate and caught 4 of 5 targets for 0 yards. He has a 62.3% route rate on the season. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ran 4 more routes than Washington but was not targeted. Overall, he’s averaging 0.43 YPRR and 17% TPRR. He’s lined up out of the slot on 56.9% of his routes. The Chargers are allowing the 11^th most YPRR to the slot, but the 4^th fewest to wide alignment. The Chargers top 2 coverages this season have been Cover 3 (35.4%) and Cover 4 (23.3%). Malik had positive splits against these coverages last season, averaging 1.35 YPRR compared to 0.88 YPRR against all other coverages. Malik Washington and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s roles are not large enough to recommend their props.

Suggested Pick:

Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

 

TE Darren Waller

Waller’s return to the NFL has been sensational. In week 4, he had a 37% route rate but caught 3 of 4 targets for 27 yards and 2 TDs. His route rate increased to 65% in week 5. He caught 5 of 5 targets for 78 yards and another TD. With Tyreek suffering a season-ending injury, Waller looks poised to be the 3^rd option behind Waddle and Achane in this offense. In week 6, he’ll face a Chargers defense that has allowed the 4^th fewest receiving yards and 3^rd fewest receptions to TE. The Chargers top 2 coverages this season have been Cover 3 (35.4%) and Cover 4 (23.3%). In Waller’s last season back in 2023, he averaged 1.92 YPRR and 22% TPRR against these 2 coverages. That compares to 1.48 YPRR and 22% TPRR against all other coverages. Here’s a quote from Mike McDaniel on Waller, “Darren Waller influences the game. There’s a happy medium with the progression of his utilization, and trying to be smart with the realities of him just getting back to playing. I think we’ve scratched the surface of what he’s capable of doing in the offense.” I like Waller’s over, but the matchup is making me hesitant on a ladder.

Suggested Pick:

Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Anytime TD (+290)

The only thing I could see the Dolphins doing is throw a ton of short passes without Hill and this is about the worst matchup for that. Give me the Chargers to cover the -4.5.

Best Bet: Chargers -4.5 +100
Lean: Under 44.5 -118
Score Prediction Chargers 27 Dolphins 17

Anytime TD Picks

Darren Waller (Dolphins) +290

Waller has scored 3 times in 2 weeks with the Dolphins. His route rate increased from 37%  to 65% last week. It’s clear coach McDaniels had plans for Waller and he has looked excellent. He’s Tua’s guy in the redzone, riding the hot hand!

 

Hassan Haskins (Chargers) +140

With Omarion Hampton sidelined, the Chargers’ backfield will shift into a split led by Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal. Both backs complement each other well — Haskins brings power between the tackles, while Vidal offers burst and vision on outside zone runs. The matchup against Miami is promising; the Dolphins allow 133.6 rushing yards per game (second most in the league) and just got gashed for over 200 by Dallas. Expect Los Angeles to test Miami’s defensive front early to establish balance and create manageable down-and-distance scenarios for Herbert. Haskins should handle the bulk of early-down work and goal-line opportunities, while Vidal could see increased snaps on passing downs.

 

1st TD Picks

Darren Waller (Dolphins) +1400

Same analysis as anytime, it’s clear coach McDaniels loves Waller in the redzone. He’s scored 2 TDs in the first half in 2 games.

 

Ladd McConkey (Chargers) +900

In his most productive performance since Week 2, Ladd McConkey hauled in 5 of 7 targets for 39 yards, including a two-yard touchdown over the middle from Justin Herbert to open the scoring. While his role has typically hovered around 6.4 targets per game behind Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston, Sunday’s showing hinted that Jim Harbaugh may be expanding McConkey’s involvement within the offense.

Parlay #1 (+628)

Tua Tagovailoa Under 223.5 Passing Yards

Jaylen Waddle 60+ Receiving Yards

Darren Waller 30+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2 (+645)

Hassan Haskins 'O' 38.5 Rushing Yards

Hassan Haskins ATD

Keenan Allen 'O' 5.5 Receptions

QB Drake Maye

Maye is averaging 252.2 passing yards per game, 8.24 YPA, a 73.9% completion rate and he’s thrown 7 total TDs. He’ll face a Saints defense that is ranked in the middle of the pack in EPA/Pass allowed and has allowed the 9^th fewest passing yards per game. The Saints have the 10th highest blitz rate (29.9%) but the 8th lowest pressure rate (33.1%). When Maye is not pressured, he averages 8.52 YPA, an 82.7% completion rate and it accounts for all 7 of his TDs. The Saints primarily play 3 coverages, Cover 3 (39.4%), Cover 4 (20%) and Cover 1 (18.9%). May averages 9.56 YPA and a 77.4% completion rate against these 3 coverages. That compares to 6.2 YPA and a 68.3% completion rate against all other coverages. In the running game, Maye is averaging 5.4 attempts and 22 yards per game. Most of his attempts have been on scrambles and the designed runs we hoped McDaniels would bring has not come to fruition. The Saints have allowed the 7^th most rushing yards per game to QB, but considering they don’t have a high pressure rate, I’m not inclined to bet on Maye’s rushing.

Suggested Pick:

Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-118)

 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson fumbled again last week but he still had a 50% snap share as Antonio Gibson suffered a season ending injury and the coaching staff does not trust the rookie Treveyon Henderson to fully take over yet. Stevenson rushed 7 times for just 14 yards but still received all the touches near the goal line. He out touched Henderson 3 to 0 inside the 10 and was able to score 2 rushing touchdowns. He’ll face a Saints team that is ranked 16^th best in EPA/Rush allowed. They are allowing the 13^th most rushing yards per game (122.2), yet the 14^th fewest YPC (4.16). The Saints play from behind a lot and the Patriots are 3.5-point favorites in this game. Rhamondre is also averaging 30.8 receiving yards per game, but a lot of that production came in weeks 2 and 3 with a 55- and 23-yard catch. He’s under 14 receiving yards in the other 3 games. From a receiving matchup, the Saints are allowing the 6^th highest target share to the backfield (19.4%) and the 12^th most receiving yards per game (32.6). If I’m playing any Stevenson overs, it’s for him to score a touchdown.

Suggested Pick:

Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

Under 13.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Anytime TD (+115)

 

RB Treveyon Henderson

Treveyon has yet to earn a meaningful role in this offense yet. He’s played 38.3% of the snaps and has 32 attempts to Stevenson’s 38. Rhamondre fumbled again last week, and Gibson came in as the bell cow immediately after. Gibson suffered a season-ending injury, so Treveyon was the next man up and played 48.2% of the snaps, his highest rate on the season. He did not do much with his opportunities, rushing 6 times for 24 times. He also caught 2 of 3 targets for just 3 receiving yards. The most encouraging aspect of the night was his route rate, at 47.2%. The coaching staff still trusted Stevenson with goal line carries (3 to 0 in attempts inside 10) and at the end of the game. Stevenson likely still sees majority of opportunities this week if he’s able to avoid a fumble. He’ll face a Saints team that is ranked 16^th best in EPA/Rush allowed. They are allowing the 13^th most rushing yards per game (122.2), yet the 14^th fewest YPC (4.16). From a receiving matchup, the Saints are allowing the 6^th highest target share to the backfield (19.4%) and the 12^th most receiving yards per game (32.6). I don’t mind Treveyon’s receiving lines with Gibson out of the picture.

Suggested Pick:

Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

 

WR Stefon Diggs

After averaging a 56.2% route rate, 37.3 receiving yards per game, 1.53 YPRR and 21% TPRR in the first 3 games of the season, Diggs has caught fire the past 2. His route rate has increased to 67.2% and he’s averaging 123.5 receiving yards per game, 6.33 YPRR, 49% TPRR and a 44.4% 1^st-read rate. Obviously, those numbers are not sustainable, but he’s firmly established himself as Maye’s #1 target. Diggs has lined up out wide on 58.9% of his routes and in the slot on 41.1%. The Saints have allowed the 2^nd fewest YPG and are 9^th lowest in EPA/pass allowed to the slot. They allow the 11^th most receiving yards and are 12^th highest in EPA/Pass allowed to wide alignment. The Saints have the 10th highest blitz rate (29.9%) but the 8th lowest pressure rate (33.1%). When Maye is not pressured, Diggs is averaging 4.15 YPRR, 39% TPRR and a 24.7% 1^st-read rate. The Saints primarily play 3 coverages, Cover 3 (39.4%), Cover 4 (20%) and Cover 1 (18.9%). Diggs averages 4.56 YPRR, 32% TPRR and a 22.9% 1^st-read rate against these 3 coverages. That compares to 1.52 YPRR, 28% TPRR and a 27% 1^st-read rate against all other coverages. I lean over on his props, but I’m not excited as previous weeks as his lines look closer to fair value and I believe defenses will start to gameplan against him.

Suggested Pick:

Over 4.5 Receptions (-158)

Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

 

WR Kayshon Boutte

Boutte has run a route on 68.1% of routes this season, clearly the number 2 receiver for this Patriots offense. He’s averaging 41.6 receiving yards per game, has been targeted on 13% of his routes, and averages 1.63 YPRR. He’s 3^rd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 14%. Boutte primarily lines up out wide (92.2% route rate). The Saints allow the 11^th most receiving yards and are 12^th highest in EPA/Pass allowed to wide alignment. They are tougher against the slot. The Saints have the 10th highest blitz rate (29.9%) but the 8th lowest pressure rate (33.1%). Boutte averages 2.17 YPRR, 20% TPRR and has a 1^st-read rate of 14.6% when Maye is not pressured. The Saints primarily play 3 coverages, Cover 3 (39.4%), Cover 4 (20%) and Cover 1 (18.9%). Kayshon averages 1.84 YPRR, 17% TPRR and a 17.1% 1^st-read rate against these 3 coverages. That compares to 1.26 YPRR, 6% TPRR and 8.1% 1^st-read rate against all other coverages. Boutte attended college at LSU and grew up in Louisiana. I’m sure he had this game circled on his calendar and wouldn’t be surprised if he had a stellar performance in this one. Especially after Diggs went off the past 2 weeks and defenses will likely gameplan against him.

Suggested Pick:

Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

40+ Receiving Yards (+190)

50+ Receiving Yards (+390)

60+ Receiving Yards (+900)

 

TE Hunter Henry

Through 5 weeks, Henry is averaging 50 receiving yards per game, 1.88 YPRR, 20% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 20.6%. The Saints are allowing the 11^th most receiving yards and the 4^th most receiving TDs to tight end. Henry has a league-high 36.8% of his targets in the red zone (amongst TEs). The Saints have the 10th highest blitz rate (29.9%) but the 8th lowest pressure rate (33.1%). Henry averages 2.54 YPRR, 25% TPRR and a 16.9% 1^st-read rate when Maye is not pressured. The Saints primarily play 3 coverages, Cover 3 (39.4%), Cover 4 (20%) and Cover 1 (18.9%). Henry averages 2.00 YPRR, 19% TPRR and 20% 1^st-read rate against these 3 coverages. That compares to 1.71 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 21.6% 1^st-read rate against all other coverages. Henry has been hit or miss when it comes to receiving yards and receptions, but I like his upside in this matchup to find the endzone.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime TD (+210)

QB Spencer Rattler

Spencer Rattler finally picked up his first career win as an NFL starting quarterback after losing his first 11 games. The Saints QB broke into the win column by defeating the NY Giants in Week 5, where he completed 21 of 31 passes for 225 yards (7.3 YPA) and 1 TD. Rattler also ran the ball 6 times for 21 yards. He’s posted multiple TDs just once in his first five games in '25, and he’s now dealing with Taysom Hill stealing reps at quarterback so that is a major concern going forward. Rattler has not made a ton of splash plays, but the positive side is he's also not making mistakes, either. I've said this before, but the bottom line is Kellen Moore clearly doesn't trust Rattler much and he's simply asking him to manage the game and keep New Orleans close in order to give them a chance in the 4th quarter. There is one spot that I do really like this Sunday for Rattler and that is his rushing yards total. I’m anticipating the second-year quarterback to use his mobility to pick up a chunk run or two and clear what I consider to be a rather modest number. Spencer Rattler has rushed for 16+ yards in 7 of his 11 career starts for an  impressive 7.3 YPA. 15 yards is not much to ask, and Josh Allen (BUF) just ran for 53 yards last week against New England.

Suggested Bet:

Spencer Rattler 15+ Rush Yards (-184)

 

RB Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara’s role in the New Orleans offense has been trending downward all year with regard to his overall production, especially as a pass-catching RB. Now, the Saints RB is being hampered by an ankle injury that had him limited in practice on Thursday. Last Sunday, Kamara carried the ball just 8 times for 27 yards (3.4 YPC), but he did add 4 receptions for 28 yards. Backup RB Kendre Miller continues to cut into his volume. His snaps have gone from 16% to 27%, 32% and most recently 42%, and Taysom Hill cutting in front of the cafeteria line to steal away short yardage carries complicates things even more. Last Sunday, Kamara posted season-lows in snap share (53%) and carry share (27%). Considering Kamara is also dealing with the aforementioned ankle injury, I have major reservations on both his usage and production this week against a Patriots defense that is allowing the 2nd fewest rushing YPG (64.2) to opposing RBs. With New Orleans being an underdog at home, I am fading Kamara big time in week 6.

Suggested Bet:

Alvin Kamara u39.5 Rush Yards (-113)

 

WR Chris Olave

When it comes to volume, Chris Olave has been simply amazing. He is currently second only to Puka Nacua in targets through the first 5 weeks of the season. He has posted double-digit targets in 4 of 5 games, hauling in at least 6 receptions in four of those. Last Sunday, the Saints WR caught 7 of 11 balls for 59 yards. Overall, Olave has collected 54, 54, 57, 20 and 59 yards to begin the year. It’s simply astonishing that Olave has this kind of volume and production with regard to catching the football, but he’s yet to yield a 60 yard game. And this my friends falls all on the arm of Spencer Rattler, who head coach Kellen Moore has little to no faith in as a starting quarterback. New England deploys Cover-1 (28.2%) and Cover-3 (27.1%) at a combined 55.3% clip. Against these coverages Olave has ran 87 routes and is averaging just 1.76 YPRR and .31 TPRR! Last week, the Patriots limited Khalil Shakir to 6 catches for only 45 yards and that’s with Josh Allen at quarterback.

Suggested Bet:

Chris Olave 6+ Receptions (-175)

Chris Olave u56.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

 

WR Rashid Shaheed

Rashid Shaheed finally had a breakout game where he caught 4 balls for 114 yards, which included an 87-yard TD. Despite last Sunday’s performance, Shaheed has suffered due to Spencer Rattler’s inability to throw the ball downfield. When you couple that with head coach Kellen Moore’s slow paced offense that can only be likened to watching paint dry it has resulted in a major drop-off for the New Orleans receiver. Prior to Moore’s arrival, 32% (’23) and 39% (’24) of Shaheed’s targets were deep down the field. Five weeks into the ’25 season, the Saints WR has seen that drop to 16.9%. However, there is reason to believe Shaheed could have another solid performance on Sunday. The Patriots are playing man-coverage at the 9th highest rate in the NFL and Shaheed has been targeted on 35.9% of his routes vs man as opposed to a miniscule 12.5% vs zone. In addition, NE is giving up the 8th most receiving YPG (119.8) and the 4th most YPRR (2.34) to WR lined up out wide. With Christian Gonzalez back those numbers have dipped to 97.5 YPG and 1.68 YPRR, but with the Saints being an underdog and playing indoors there is reason to be optimistic with Shaheed this week.

Suggested Bet:

Rashid Shaheed 4+ Receptions (-158)

Rashid Shaheed o19.5 Longest Reception (-120)

 

TE Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson has been a reliable option for QB Spencer Rattler this year, but after all the hype surrounding the Saints TE, his role in the offense has diminished greatly. In the first 3 weeks of the season Johnson had games of 8-76-0 (vs ARI), 9-49-1 (vs SF) and 8-51-0 (@ SEA), but in his last 2 games he’s caught 3-28-0 (@ BUF) and 2-17-0 (vs NYG) on just 5 total targets. Over the last 4 consecutive games, Johnson has seen his target share dip from 27% to 20%, 11% and an abysmal 9% last Sunday. Here is where the decision gets tough on whether or not to put your money on Johnson. The Patriots are giving up the 2nd most receiving YPG (75.0) and the 10th most receptions per game (6.2), while allowing the 4th most YPT (9.4) to the TE position. In 6 games, New England has been tarred and feathered by tight ends, allowing 3 different players at this position to post 100+ yards. The only conclusion one can draw from all of this is that Juwan Johnson is going to see his usage and production continue to plummet or he’s going to have a monster game. The only call to make here on Johnson is go big or go home.

Suggested Bet:

Pass

Patriots are coming in with an All-High confidence after beating the Bills by 3 on the road. Now they get to face a terrible Saints team who picked up their first win of the season against the Giants. Saints @Home have kept there games competitive so I'm giving a 3 point road victory for the Patriots and taking the Under 45.5

Best Bet: Patriots -2.5 -140
Lean: Under 45.5 -120
Score Prediction Patriots 23 Saints 20

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Saints):  Rashid Shaheed  +225

Rashid Shaheed found the end zone for the first time since Week 2 after hooking up with Spencer Rattler for an 87-yard touchdown pass last Sunday against the NY Giants. The Saints WR has another fortuitous matchup when he faces a New England team in week 6 that has allowed the 5th most YPR (11.5) and 5th most YAC (5.6) to opposing wide receivers. The Pats also give up the 8th most receiving YPG (119.8) and the 4th-most YPRR (2.34) to receivers aligned out wide overall.

 

First TD Picks

Best Play (Saints):  Rashid Shaheed  +1300

In addition to what is outline above regarding Rashid Shaheed, the Patriots have allowed the 3rd most TD (6) to opposing WR in '25. NE plays man-coverage at the 6th highest rate in the NFL (33.6%), and this bodes well for Shaheed who is being targeted on 35.9% of his routes against man. When he is facing zone, this numbers drops significantly to 12.5%.

Parlay #1 (Saints):  Best Play  +228

Spencer Rattler 15+ Rush Yards

Chris Olave 6+ Receptions

Rashid Shaheed 4+ Receptions

 

Parlay #2 (Saints):  Longshot  +1700

Spencer Rattler 25+ Rush Yards

Chris Olave 6+ Receptions

Rashid Shaheed 5+ Receptions

Rashid Shaheed Anytime TD

QB Matthew Stafford

After a slow start to the season, LA Rams QB Matthew Stafford is flat out dealing right now. Matthew Stafford threw for 3 TDs in his second straight game, completing 30 of 47 passes for 389 yards (8.3 YPA) and 3 TDs in a loss to the 49ers. Stafford has thrown for multiple TDs in 4 straight games now, and in his last 17 games since Puka Nacua returned to the lineup in '24, he has thrown 32 TDs. He has a premier matchup this Sunday against a Ravens defense that is still missing many core pieces, and with an upcoming bye in week 7 they are likely not going to rush anyone back. For all intense purposes they will be without Roquan Smith, Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Hamilton and Chidobe Awuzie. Baltimore deploys the 3rd highest rate of man-coverage (40.1%), and Stafford averages 8.49 YPA with 6 TDs to go with a passer rating of 127.9 on 59 pass attempts against man. The Ravens have allowed 37 or more points in 4 of 5 games this season and they rank 29th in pressure rate (28.4%). This is bad news when facing a QB like Matthew Stafford who thrives in the pocket. BAL is giving up the 3rd most passing YPG (270.2) and the MOST passing TDs per game (2.6) to opposing QBs. Over the past 2 weeks they have been lit up by both C.J. Stroud (244 yards, 4 TD) and Patrick Mahomes (270 yards, 4 TD).

Suggested Bet:

Matthew Stafford 250+ Pass Yards (-144)

Matthew Stafford 2+ Pass TDs (-180)

 

RB Kyren Williams

Despite Kyren Williams being susceptible to coughing the ball up, it has had zero effect on Sean McVay’s confidence in his starting RB. Williams turned 22 touches into 131 total yards and 2 touchdowns on Thursday against the 49ers, while seeing a season-high snap rate of 91%. Part of Williams' production came as a pass-catching back. The Rams RB caught 8 of 10 targets for 66 yards and 2 TD. His 8 receptions on TNF equaled his total from the 4 weeks of the season. Now, he faces a Baltimore defense who ranks DEAD LAST in the NFL in EPA as a run defense (-9.7). The Ravens have allowed the 4th most YPG to opposing RBs (157.2) and they've surrendered 8 touchdowns out of the backfield. Over the past 3 weeks alone, BAL has given up 263 yards, 4 TD (vs DET), 131 yards, TD (@ KC) and 121 yards, TD (vs HOU). 46.3% of Williams' runs this season have been on man/gap runs, the 3rd highest rate in the league. It will be hard to for the L.A. running back to repeat what he did to San Francisco, but he should have a productive week 6.

Suggested Bet:

Kyren Williams o93.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-114)

Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-185)

 

WR Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua continues to pace all wide receivers this season in targets (62), receptions (52), and receiving yards (588). The Rams standout WR is coming off a 10-85-1 performance vs San Francisco where he saw 12 total targets. To put Puka's '25 season in perspective, he's recorded 9+ targets, 8+ receptions and 85+ yards in all six of his games. Now, he will face a banged up Baltimore defense that runs the 3rd highest rate of man-coverage (40.1%) in the league. On the 47 routes Nacua has ran vs man, he is averaging 4.19 YPRR and .47 TPRR. Puka Nacua is playing 44% of his snaps out of the slot and the Ravens are allowing the 6th most YPRR (1.96) and the 3rd most receiving YPG (92.6) to slot receivers. WR have also accounted for 7 touchdowns vs BAL over the past 2 weeks. It's safe to say that Puka has lots of value here!

Suggested Bet:

Puka Nacua 90+ Receiving Yards (-146)

Puka Nacua 8+ Receptions (-151)

Puka Nacua 9+ Receptions (+114)

Puka Nacua 10+ Receptions (+182)

 

WR Davante Adams

Davante Adams caught 5 of 11 balls thrown his way for 88 yards on TNF against the Rams. The Rams WR has recorded at least 50 or more receiving yards in each of his first 5 games. Among wide receivers who have run at least 75+ routes this season, Adams ranks 2nd in both Average Separation Score (.212) and Win Rate (23.6%). This speaks volumes as it relates to Adams speed and overall talent as a wideout. He now faces a Ravens defense that is in shambles. As indicated above, we know about Baltimore's propensity to lean heavily on man-coverage. The Ravens are giving up the 13th most receiving YPG (109.0) to receivers aligned out wide. In their most recent matchup, BAL allowed Nico Collins to go for 4-52-1. Don't expect Adams to have a monster game, but he has been consistent in recording 50-yard games in every week this season. His best value clearly lies in his TD props. As noted earlier, the Ravens have allowed 7 touchdowns to wideouts over the past 2 weeks. Davante Adams enters this matchup ranking 2nd in the NFL with 9 end zone targets and nobody in the league has a higher share of his team's targets in the end zone than Adams, who's seeing them a 69.2% clip.

Suggested Bet:

Davante Adams 50+ Receiving Yards (-196)

Davante Adams Anytime TD (+110)

Davante Adams 2+ ALT TDs (+700)

 

TE Tyler Higbee

Tyler Higbee was a limited practice participant on Thursday, but does it really matter? The Rams offense runs through the triple-headed monster of Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Those 3 players alone account for 70.9 percent of L.A.’s offensive production. The bottom line is Sean McVay simply does not value the TE position from a receiving standpoint. Higbee has garnered just 6 catches on 11 targets for 62 total yards in 4 games played. At some point he will have a decent game when we least expect it, but I refuse to play Russian Roulette with a tight end who is seeing a target share of 6.1%!!

Suggested Bet:

Pass

QB Lamar Jackson

If Lamar Jackson suits up Sunday, expect Baltimore to lean heavily on his mobility to neutralize a fierce Rams pass rush that ranks top 10 in pressure rate. Los Angeles plays zone coverage on 77.3% of snaps, which historically invites scrambling opportunities for quarterbacks—especially mobile ones like Jackson, who has averaged 8.1 yards per scramble vs. zone looks since 2021. While his hamstring injury limits designed runs, Baltimore’s offense thrives when Jackson extends plays outside structure. Against zone-heavy defenses, he tends to tuck and run early—over 40% of his rush attempts this season have come on broken plays when facing two-deep coverage. The Rams have been disciplined in coverage but vulnerable to QB runs up the middle, surrendering 31+ rushing yards to both Jordan Love and Bo Nix in the past three weeks. If Jackson starts, expect Todd Monken to roll out a quick-hitting, spread look that opens interior lanes for scrambles. 

Suggested Play:

(If active) 'O' Rush Yards

 

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry has now failed to eclipse 50 rushing yards in four consecutive games, and this matchup doesn’t project much better. Los Angeles allows the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (71.8) and has yet to allow a single rushing touchdown to a running back this year. The Rams’ defensive front is led by Kobie Turner and Bobby Brown III, who’ve combined for the sixth-best adjusted yards before contact per attempt allowed (1.74). Henry has been hit at or behind the line on 47% of his carries this season, and his yards after contact per rush has fallen from 3.2 last year to just 2.0 in 2025. Without Lamar Jackson to freeze linebackers on the read-option, defenses have keyed in on Henry’s inside runs, collapsing the A-gap and forcing him laterally—a death sentence for his downhill style. The Ravens offensive line has generated the third-lowest rush success rate (35%) since Week 2. Against a Rams defense that thrives on gap discipline and rarely misses tackles, Henry’s efficiency outlook remains bleak. 

Suggested Play:

'U' 67.5 Rush Yards (-115)

 

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers continues to prove he’s the engine of Baltimore’s passing attack, regardless of who’s under center. Even with Lamar Jackson sidelined, Flowers showed his floor is remarkably stable — catching all 5 of his targets for 72 yards last week while leading the team in receptions, targets, and yards. His quick-hitting route tree and burst after the catch make him a perfect fit against the Rams’ zone-heavy scheme. Los Angeles plays Cover 3 on 40.1% of snaps, and Flowers has been excellent versus that look, producing 2.06 yards per route run and commanding a 24% target-per-route rate on 34 such routes. The Rams’ defense has been gashed underneath and across the seams, surrendering the seventh-most receiving yards per game (159.6) and eighth-most receptions per game (13.2) to opposing wideouts. Flowers thrives in that soft area between linebackers and safeties, averaging 8.4 yards after the catch per reception this season, and his ability to win quickly at the top of routes makes him quarterback-friendly no matter who’s throwing. With Baltimore’s offense likely leaning on short-area timing routes to counter Los Angeles’ pressure, Flowers should again operate as the first read on a high percentage of dropbacks. Another 70+ yard outing is firmly within reach.

Suggested Play:

'O' 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

TE Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews remains one of the NFL’s most efficient red-zone tight ends, and this matchup profiles perfectly for him to find paydirt again. Despite a quiet Week 5 (2 catches, 22 yards), Andrews still ranks second in target share inside the 10-yard line (33%) among tight ends and maintains a 12.2% win rate against man and match-zone looks. The Rams’ coverage tendencies suggest Andrews will see opportunities over the middle: they run Cover 3 at the fourth-highest rate (40.1%), and against that coverage, he’s averaged 0.67 yards per route run with a 10% target rate despite Baltimore’s recent quarterback rotation. Los Angeles has been vulnerable to tight ends working the seams, conceding the 14th-most receiving yards per game (49.2) and a touchdown to the position in three of their past four contests. Andrews’ role as a primary safety valve is amplified when Baltimore faces pressure — which they will against Jared Verse’s front — and Rush (or Jackson, if active) will almost certainly look his way on condensed-field throws. Inside the 20, Andrews has seen more end-zone targets (6) than all other Ravens combined. With Baltimore’s run game struggling and Flowers drawing bracket coverage, this sets up as a bounce-back week for the veteran tight end to cash as an anytime touchdown scorer.

Suggested Play:

Anytime TD (+400)

Lamar is OUT which means this Ravens team has a decent chance of starting the season 1-5... Now with that being said the key to victory for the ravens is to control the clock and play at a VERY slow pace. As for the Rams they will look to exploit this bad defense as they have allowed 37+ points in 4/5 games!!! OUCH. I think this is one of those fluke games where both offenses can have their struggles at times. Give me the Ravens to cover the large TD spread @Home and the Under 

Best Bet: Ravens +7.5 -120
Lean: Under 45.5 -120
Score Prediction Rams 24 Ravens 21

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (Ravens) Mark Andrews +400

Mark Andrews remains Baltimore’s most reliable red-zone weapon, commanding 33% of the team’s targets inside the 10-yard line and leading all Ravens in end-zone looks. The Rams’ zone-heavy defense (40% Cover 3) has struggled to contain tight ends over the middle, allowing a score to the position in three of their last four games. With Flowers likely to draw extra attention on underneath routes, Andrews should find space up the seam or on a goal-line play-action look. This matchup sets up perfectly for him to break his scoring drought and get back in the end zone.

 

Best Play (Rams):  Tutu Atwell  +600

Tutu Atwell is listed as questionable for week 6, so you’ll need to monitor his status for Sunday. If he’s a go, Atwell has nice value to score a touchdown. After a slow start over the first 3 weeks of the season, Tutu Atwell has started to find his footing as a sporadic deep threat in the Rams offense. He excels on low-percentage throws, boasting an average of 41.0 yards across his 4 receptions this year. After catching just 1 of 3 targets for 4 total yards in his first 3 games, Atwell has come out of nowhere to explode for 160 (including an 88-yard touchdown) on 6 targets in the last 2 weeks. If Tutu plays on Sunday, he will have the opportunity to showcase his skills against a Baltimore team that has allowed the 2nd highest number of 20+ yard plays (23) and the 3rd highest number of 30+ yard plays through the first five weeks of the ’25 NFL season.

 

1st TD Picks

Best Bet: (Ravens) Derrick Henry +350

Derrick Henry’s production has dipped, but his usage near the goal line remains elite — he’s handled 100% of Baltimore’s carries inside the 5-yard line this season. The Ravens will likely lean on him early to establish rhythm and protect their quarterback situation. Despite the Rams ranking top-10 in rushing defense, their short-yardage success rate allowed (63%) leaves room for Henry to punch one in if Baltimore drives early. His combination of volume and red-zone dominance keeps him a strong first-TD bet.

 

Best Play (Rams):  Kyren Williams  +390

Kyren Williams is Sean McVay’s golden boy and there’s just no other way to put it. The Rams have scored the First TD in just 2 of 5 games this season and Williams had one of those, but he he’s found the end zone on 4 occasions this year. The L.A. running back will go up against a beaten and battered Baltimore defense that has allowed the 2nd most TDs (8) to opposing RBs out of the backfield. Blake Corum was benched in week 5, so Kyren will get all of the goal-line  touches out of the backfield and he has the ability to catch the ball for a receiving TD as well.

Parlay #1 (Ravens) +550

Derrick Henry 'U' 17.5 Yard Longest Rush 

Mark Andrews ATD

 

Parlay #1 (Rams):  Best Play +309 FanDuel

Matthew Stafford 2+ Pass TD 

Kyren Williams 80+ Rush/Rec Yards

Puka Nacua 7+ Receptions

Davante Adams 50+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Rams):  Longshot  +1684 FanDuel

Matthew Stafford 3+ Pass TD 

Kyren Williams 80+ Rush/Rec Yards

Kyren Williams Anytime TD

Puka Nacua 8+ Receptions

Davante Adams 50+ Receiving Yards

Davante Adams Anytime TD

QB Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray is dealing with a foot injury and did not return to practice until Friday, but for better or worse he is expected to start on Sunday barring a setback. Murray is having a pretty sad year statistically speaking, and that's saying something considering the bar was set pretty low to begin with. The Arizona QB has yet to throw for over 220 yards in a single game this season, and that pretty depressing considering three of Murray's opponents have been New Orleans, Tennessee and Carolina. He ranks 26th in TD-rate (3.7%), 29th in YPPA (6.0), 31st in air YPPA (4.8) and only 26.9% of his throws have been for 10 yard or more downfield (30th). The one area Murray has excelled in is with his legs, where he's averaging 34.6 rush YPG. Through the first five weeks of the '25 season, Murray has ran for 38, 32, 37, 41 and 25 yards. But, how can you trust a guy to run the ball who is coming in with a foot injury, and on top of that Indianapolis is allowing just 10.8 rush YPG to opposing QBs (6th fewest). The Colts also have the 8th worst pressure-rate in the NFL at 32.0%, but even with a clean pocket Kyler Murray is averaging just 6.0 YPPA (29th). Logic says to take the under in his total yardage, but this seems like a trap considering IND is a 7-point home favorite. For me, I like the value we are getting for Murray to throw an interception. The Colts defense has forced and INT in every game they have played except for one, and that was against Matthew Stafford and the Rams. In their other 4 games the Indy defense has combined for 6 total interceptions (3rd most). They've picked off Tua Tagovailoa (2 INT), Bo Nix (1 INT), Cam Ward (1 INT) and Geno Smith (2 INT). Murray has thrown three interceptions on the season, but two of those came in one game where he threw the ball 41 times. There is a good chance Kyler is going to have air the ball out some in this game as the Cardinals are expected to be playing from behind.

Suggested Pick:

Kyler Murray 1+ Interceptions (-115)

 

RB Michael Carter

Michael Carter led the Arizona backfield last week with a 59% snap share. He got 18 of the 25 carries, while catching all 5 of his pass targets. This allowed Carter to put up 73 total yards to go with one rush TD, and after Emari Demercado's disaster at the goal-line it stand to reason that Carter will get the majority of the work for the Cardinals in week 6. He will face a Colts team that allows 4.3 YPC to opposing RBs (9th most), but this statistic seems rather insignificant when you consider that Carter averaged just 2.8 YPC last week against a Tennessee Titans rush defense that has given up the 3rd most yards in the NFL. This is a game that I could see getting out of hand early, and even if it doesn't Arizona is most likely going to be playing from behind and Carter has proven for 5 years now that he cannot be relied upon out of the backfield. This guy was on the practice squad for a reason!

Suggested Pick:

Michael Carter u48.5 Rush Yards (-114)

 

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

The Arizona Cardinals have a record of 2-3, but they are arguably one of the worst teams in the NFL. They were gifted a schedule that began with back-to-back games against New Orleans and Carolina, and they only won those by 7 and 5 points respectively. After losing to both San Francisco and Seattle, the Cardinals literally gave Tennessee a win last week in what was the worst loss in franchise history. ARI is officially in damage control mode now as things have spilled out into the locker room. Marvin Harrison Jr. was quoted as saying he would be "excited" if backup QB Jacoby Brissett were given the chance to start in week 6. Considering his level of talent, it's hard to believe there are 37 wide receivers in the NFL who are averaging more targets per game than Harrison. This falls directly on Kyler Murray who has been ineffective all season in the passing game. As a result, Marvin Harrison Jr. has had 6 targets or fewer in every game this year but one. There is some light at the end of the tunnel for Harrison though. Despite a target share of just 20.3%, the Cardinals WR is getting 40.9% of the team's air yards (7th in NFL). Harrison will line up against an Indianapolis pass defense that has given up 10 receptions of 20 yards or more in the first 5 weeks of the season. This includes catches of 88, 42, 33, 31, 29, 27, 25, 23, 22 and 21 yards. With Arizona likely to be playing from behind and Murray forced to throw the ball, Harrison's longest reception should be very attainable inside the dome-friendly environment of Lucas Oil Stadium.

Suggested Pick:

Marvin Harrison Jr. o21.5 Longest Reception (-110)

 

WR Michael Wilson

Michael Wilson is quite possibly the worst #2 receiver in the NFL. The only question here is who is to blame, Wilson himself, or Kyler Murray. It's likely a combination of the two, but that's neither here nor there. The fact of the matter is the Cardinals WR has 8 receptions on just 18 targets. His receiving yardage totals in 5 games this season are 5, 11, 5, 15 and 16. It's tempting to go after Wilson this week in a game where Arizona is a 7-point underdog, but Murray's lack of accuracy combined with Wilson's horrendous 11.4% target share, simply makes him unplayable.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

 

TE Trey McBride

Trey McBride is just about the only bright spot in this offense, and even he hasn't reached the ceiling many were hoping for prior to the start of the '25 season. Still, McBride has seen at least 7 targets or more in every game this year, and he is miles ahead of everybody in the Cardinals offense with a 26.6% target share. That said, the Arizona passing game is just garbage. That may seem a little harsh, but if you're a fan of this team or studied them in depth as I have for the first five weeks of the season, you would come to the same conclusion. Since totaling 139 receiving yards in the first two weeks against NO (9-61-0) and CAR  7-78-0), McBride has totaled just 43, 52 and 41 receiving yards. Again, I can't stress enough that the common denominator here is Kyler Murray. The Cardinals TE is averaging just 9.5 YPC this year, and he will be matchup against a Colts defense that sits squarely in the middle of the pack in YPT allowed to the tight end position (6.7). Still, somebody has got to catch some balls this week and McBride's lack of production over the past 3 weeks gives us some sneaky value this Sunday. Indianapolis has allowed the 16th most/fewest (depends on whether you are the glass is half full or half empty) yards to the TE position, but when you consider they've faced Tanner Connor (5-49-0), Evan Engram (12-95-1), Chig Okonkwo (17-172-0), Tyler Higbee (6-62-0) and Albert Okwuegbunam (5-36-0) 5-66, you come to realize the Colts haven't been pushed at all by opposing TEs. The only decent player they have gone up against at this position is Chig Okonkwo (TEN), and he had 5 catches for 66 yards against IND. As I said before, somebody has to give Arizona some offense and McBride is in a nice spot here in week 6.

Suggested Pick:

Trey McBride o58.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Trey McBride Anytime TD (+185)

QB Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones has been having a quietly efficient season, completing 107 of 150 passes (71.3%) for 1,290 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He's also a threat on the ground, adding 56 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 19 carries. Last week, he threw for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns on 20-of-29 passing, along with a 2-yard scramble. His advanced stats are impressive, boasting an 8.6 yards per attempt, a 105.1 passer rating, and a low 2.5% sack rate. He also maintains a 3.3% turnover-worthy throw rate and faces pressure on 34.0% of his dropbacks. Among 100 defensive dropbacks (32 quarterbacks), Jones excels in several key areas: 5th in completion rate, 4th in yards per game, 6th in average depth of target (aDOT), 14th in adjusted completion percentage, and an outstanding 1st in first-read percentage. His receivers have also been reliable, with a 25th lowest drop rate. This week, Jones faces a highly favorable matchup against an Arizona Cardinals defense that continues to be a "pass funnel," as evidenced by Cam Ward's breakout game last week. They've allowed the 5th most passing yards per game (266.6), have the 10th highest aDOT allowed (8.2), and the 11th lowest turnover-worthy throw rate allowed (1.9%). This combination of Jones's strong play and the Cardinals' struggling pass defense makes him an excellent betting option for passing yards and multiple touchdowns, with a low risk of turnovers.

 Suggested Picks
‘O’ 230.5 Passing Yards (-115)
‘O’ 1.5 Passing TD’s (-110)

RB Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor has been a dominant force this season, leading the league with 94 carries for 480 yards (5.1 YPC) and 6 touchdowns. He's also contributed in the passing game, catching 16 of 18 targets for 133 yards and a touchdown. Last week, he rumbled for 66 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns on 17 carries, adding 3 catches for 20 yards. Among 34 qualified running backs, Taylor ranks 7th in YPC (5.11) and 5th in yards after contact per attempt (3.02), showcasing his ability to grind out extra yardage. However, his explosive run rate sits at 4.3% (17th) and his stuff rate is 45.7% (14th), suggesting he's not consistently breaking off huge plays or avoiding negative runs at an elite level. This is a bit unusual, knowing his skill set. This week, Taylor faces an Arizona defense that allows the 14th fewest rushing yards per game (80.6) but ranks 25th in run defense grading. While Arizona's yardage allowed is respectable, their lower run defense grade indicates potential vulnerabilities that Taylor could exploit. Given his league-leading production and the Cardinals' less-than-stellar run defense grading, Taylor remains a high-upside play, though exceeding last week's three-score effort against a top-15 rushing defense will be a tall order. With Brissett starting this week, don’t be surprised if Giddens could get some work.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 87.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Michael Pittman Jr. has been a consistent and reliable target for the Colts this season, catching 26 of 35 passes (74.2%) for 273 yards and 4 touchdowns. Last week, he secured 5 catches for 39 yards and a touchdown on 6 targets. He primarily operates out wide (70.8%) but also sees enough action from the slot (26.7%). His advanced stats highlight his importance to the offense, boasting a 22.2% target share, accounting for 21.0% of the team's receiving yards, and generating a strong 126.2 passer rating when targeted. He averages 10.50 yards per reception and 4.00 yards after catch per reception, along with a 25.4% first down reception rate. Pittman also commands a 24.7% air yardage share, indicating he's a key deep threat. This week's matchup against the Arizona Cardinals presents a favorable opportunity, as Pittman ranks 15th in receptions per game and Arizona allows the 4th highest receptions per game (13.6) to opposing wide receivers. This suggests Pittman could be in line for a high-volume day, making him an attractive betting option for receptions and potentially another touchdown.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-140)
‘O’ 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Josh Downs
Josh Downs has emerged as a reliable secondary option in the Colts' passing game, with 20 receptions on 27 targets (74.0%) for 175 yards this season, though he's yet to find the end zone. Last week, he saw increased involvement, catching 6 passes for 54 yards on 8 targets. Downs is predominantly a slot receiver, lining up there on 83.2% of his snaps, with the remaining 16.8% out wide. His advanced metrics show a 17.0% target share, accounting for 13.5% of the team's receiving yards, and generating a 94.2 passer rating when targeted. He averages 8.75 yards per reception and 2.40 yards after catch per reception, with an 18.9% first-down reception rate and a 15.6% air yardage share. This week, Downs faces an enticing matchup against an Arizona Cardinals defense that is particularly vulnerable to slot receivers, allowing the 6th most receiving yards to the slot (87.2). Additionally, the Cardinals permit the 15th highest catch rate (70.8%) and the 10th highest first-read rate (81.5%), suggesting Downs could see a high volume of catchable targets. Given the favorable matchup and his increasing target share, Downs is a strong betting option for receptions and receiving yards this week, with a decent chance of breaking into the end zone for the first time this season.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Tyler Warren
Tyler Warren has been a consistent performer for the Colts, hauling in 23 of 31 targets (74.1%) for 307 yards and a touchdown this season. Last week, he made a significant impact with 4 catches for 44 yards and a touchdown. Warren's versatility is a key asset, as he's utilized across formations: inline (42.9%), slot (39.7%), and out wide (14.1%). His advanced stats highlight his efficiency, averaging an impressive 13.3 yards per reception and a robust 7.0 yards after the catch per reception, indicating his ability to gain significant yardage once he has the ball. His average depth of target (aDOT) is 6.4, suggesting he's used on a variety of routes, including intermediate throws. This week, Warren faces a potentially advantageous matchup, particularly against zone coverage, where he averages a stellar 2.81 yards per route run – ranking 2nd among all tight ends. If the opponent employs a significant amount of zone defense, Warren could be in for a big day, making him an intriguing betting option for receiving yards and another potential touchdown.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-125)

The Colts have had trouble containing #1 options and the Cardinals have two in Harrison and McBride. Now Kyler is a little banged up and this Colts team has been electric. I think the Colts get this done but I'm most confident in the Over here

Best Bet: Over 46.5 -120
Lean: Colts 'O' 26.5 pts -135
Score Prediction Cardinals 20 Colts 27

Anytime TD Picks

Best Play (Cardinals):  Trey McBride  +185

On paper, the Colts appear to have defended the TE position fairly well, but they've only faced one decent player at this position and that was Chig Okonkwo who went for 5-66-0. The stats will show that Indianapolis has allowed just one TD to opposing tight ends through the first 5 weeks of the season, but if you read the extensive write up on Trey McBride in the game guide you will see a list of TEs who have done next to nothing this year. The reality is IND allowed 9 TD's to opposing tight ends last season (3rd most in NFL) and even with Kyler Murray at QB we should not be getting odds this good on Trey McBride!

 

Best Play (Colts):  Michael Pittman  +175

Pittman has 4 touchdowns so far this season and gets another nice matchup vs Arizona. He leads the team with 6 redzone targets, with the next highest at 2! We'll continue to ride the wave here as IND continues to score at will.

 

First TD Picks

Best Play (Cardinals):  Michael Carter  +1200

Emari Demercado had the most yards for Arizona last week, but his 71-yard carry, that ended in disaster mind you, doesn't reveal the fact that Michael Carter controlled the lion share of touches out of the Cardinals backfield. Carter got 18 of the 29 carries, while catching 5 balls for 22 yards. He found the end zone last week for a TD, and even with a sputtering Arizona offense, if the books give you +1200 on a starting RB to score a First TD, you take it everytime.

 

Longshot (Colts):  Daniel Jones  +1200

Jones hasn't used his legs much the last few weeks, but that creates a value for a guy that already has three rushing TD's this season. He could rush for this TD or tush push. 

Parlay #1 (Cardinals):  Best Play  +300 DraftKings

Trey McBride 6+ Receptions

Trey McBride 50+ Receiving Yards

Trey McBride Anytime TD

 

Parlay #2 (Cardinals):  Longshot  +1700 DraftKings

Trey McBride 7+ Receptions

Trey McBride 60+ Receiving Yards

Trey McBride 2+ Touchdowns

 

Parlay #3 (Colts): Best Play +208
Daniel Jones 200+ Passing Yards
Michael Pittman 40+ Receiving Yards
Jonathan Taylor under 84.5 Rushing Yards

 

QB Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold emerges as a highly enticing option this week, given how well he’s played and a favorable matchup against the Jaguars' zone-heavy defense. His season statistics, 98 for 134 (73.1% completion rate), 1,246 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, but last week's performance—28 for 34, 341 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception—cements his status as a top-tier quarterback. Darnold's advanced metrics are equally impressive, boasting a phenomenal 9.3 YPA, a 114.8 passer rating, and elite rankings in completion rate (3rd), yards/game (10th), aDOT (6th), and adjusted completion percentage (3rd) among qualified quarterbacks. His 9th-ranked 1st read rate indicates quick decision-making along with the 28th rated drop rate shows he has chemistry with his receivers. Crucially, Darnold excels against zone coverage, ranking 3rd in EPA, which bodes well against a Jaguars defense that plays zone at the 5th highest rate. Furthermore, Darnold's propensity for throwing downfield (8.9 yards per attempt in three of his last four games), and an astounding 19.1 YPA when using play-action, aligns perfectly with the Jaguars' defensive vulnerabilities. Jacksonville allows 8.3 YPA (12th highest) and a 72% completion rate (10th highest) against play-action, compared to significantly tighter numbers on non-play-action plays. All signs point to another big day for Darnold, making his overs on passing yards, touchdowns more attractive.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 235.5 Passing Yards (-110)
‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions (-120)

 

RB Kenneth Walker III
Kenneth Walker III presents a cautious option this week, despite his impressive efficiency, due to a tough matchup and potential workload concerns. His season numbers, 68 carries for 330 yards (an excellent 4.9 YPC) and three touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 58 yards, highlight his big-play ability. Last week, he flashed that potential with 10 carries for 86 yards, although his receiving game was nonexistent. His advanced metrics are strong, particularly his 4.85 YPC (12th) and elite 10.3% explosive run rate (3rd), indicating he's a threat to break free on any given play. However, a 47.1% stuff rate (16th highest) suggests he can be bottled up. The matchup against the Jaguars is challenging; they've allowed a respectable 3.9 YPC (23rd) and the 6th fewest rushing yards per game (68.8) to opposing running backs, ranking 13th in run defensive grading. While Walker has edged out Charbonnet in touches over the past two weeks (58.8% vs. 52.5%) and generally outgains him, Charbonnet's apparent preference in goal-line situations could cap Walker's touchdown upside. Furthermore, Sam Darnold's 2nd lowest RB target rate (9.4%) limits Walker's already minimal involvement in the passing game. Given the tough run defense and potential for Charbonnet to steal high-value touches, Walker is mostly an avoid in a tough matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 1.5 Receptions (+120)

 

RB Zach Charbonnet
Zach Charbonnet presents a tough option as a runner this week, as his limited efficiency is offset by a crucial role in high-leverage situations, particularly near the goal line. His season stats of 48 carries for 132 yards (a low 2.8 YPC) and three touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 17 yards, are not inspiring, and his advanced metrics (2.75 YPC, 33rd; 2.1% explosive run rate, 28th) reflect his struggle to gain consistent yardage. Last week's performance—9 carries for 36 yards and a touchdown, plus 1 catch for 12 yards—was countered by his touchdown score. Despite his lower YPC compared to Walker, Charbonnet actually boasts a higher success rate (41.7% vs. Walker's 38.2%), indicating he's more consistently picking up positive yardage, even if not via explosive plays. This efficiency, combined with his clear preference in goal-line situations (out-touching Walker 11-3 inside the red zone when both are on the field), gives him a valuable niche in the redzone. The matchup against the Jaguars' run defense is tough (3.9 YPC allowed, 23rd; 6th fewest rushing yards per game), but Charbonnet's role as a red-zone specialist could still lead to touchdown opportunities. Given the tough matchup, his "overs" on rushing yards are risky, but betting on a touchdown could be profitable.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown (+135)

 

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba emerges as an elite betting option once again this week. His season-long numbers are outstanding: 34 receptions for a league-leading 534 yards (79.0% catch rate) and two touchdowns on 43 targets. Last week, he was dominant, securing 8 catches for 132 yards and a touchdown on 9 targets, showcasing his high-volume, high-efficiency potential. His advanced metrics are equally impressive, with a staggering 31.4% target share, 42.3% of team receiving yards, and an elite 133.9 passer rating when targeted. Furthermore, his 15.71 YPR and a remarkable 4.2 yards per route run. The matchup against the Jaguars is a dream scenario for Smith-Njigba: he ranks 1st in yards per route run against zone coverage, and Jacksonville runs zone at the 5th highest rate in the league. Moreover, JSN has accumulated a league-leading 470 yards when lined up outside, precisely where the Jaguars have been most vulnerable, allowing the most yards to outside wide receivers. This defensive weakness has been exploited by other WR1’s like Ja'Marr Chase (14 receptions for 165 yards and a touchdown) and Nico Collins (8 receptions for 104 yards and a touchdown). All signs point to a huge outing for Smith-Njigba, making his overs on receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns among the safest and most appealing bets of the week.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 78.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Cooper Kupp
Cooper Kupp presents a cautious betting option this week, as he faces a surprisingly stingy Jaguars defense against slot receivers. His season stats of 21 receptions for 221 yards on 29 targets (72.4% catch rate) are decent, but the absence of a touchdown raises concerns about his red-zone usage and overall scoring upside. Last week's performance—6 catches for 59 yards on 9 targets—was solid but not spectacular, particularly for a player of Kupp's past caliber. His advanced metrics show a consistent target share (19.7%) and a respectable 10.52 YPR, with a good 5.05 YAC/R, indicating he still creates yards after the catch. However, his lower 15.2% air yardage share and 69.9 passer rating when targeted suggest he's not being utilized as frequently on deeper routes, or that connections there are less efficient. That’s a bit surprising given Darnold is throwing deeper this season. The matchup against the Jaguars is particularly concerning for Kupp's primary alignment, as he splits his time almost evenly between out wide and the slot (48.9% each). Jacksonville has been very tough on slot receivers, ranking 27th in receiving yards allowed (53.4 per game) and 26th in yards per reception (8.61), although they are 10th in YAC allowed. Given the tough matchup in the slot and his current production levels, betting on Kupp's overs on receiving yards carries elevated risk this week.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions (-120)

 

TE A.J. Barner
A.J. Barner presents an appealing betting option this week, especially for touchdown upside, given his red-hot production and a highly favorable matchup against the Jaguars' defense. His season stats are remarkably efficient: 14 receptions for 134 yards on just 16 targets (87.5% catch rate), highlighted by an impressive four touchdowns. Last week was a breakout performance, where he hauled in all 7 targets for 52 yards and an outstanding two touchdowns, signaling increased involvement and red-zone preference. Barner's advanced metrics show a consistent, if not explosive, output with 9.6 yards per reception and 3.6 yards after the catch per reception. His primary alignment is inline (86.3% of snaps), where he ranks 6th among tight ends in receiving yards. This perfectly aligns with the Jaguars' defensive weakness, as they have allowed the 6th most receiving yards to inline tight ends. This combination of high-efficiency, consistent red-zone usage, and a prime matchup makes Barner a strong bet for both receptions, receiving yards, and particularly a touchdown this week.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-140)

QB Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence presents an interesting option this week, despite a strong performance last outing. His season numbers, 102 passing completions of 169 attempts (60.4% completion rate) for 1,066 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, along with 25 rushes for 86 yards and 2 scores, are still underwhelming for a quarterback that we expected to take a step forward under new coach Liam Coen. While last week's outing of 18 for 25, 221 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, plus an impressive 10 carries for 54 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns, showcased his dual-threat potential, his advanced passing metrics (6.31 YPA, 78.2 passer rating, 28th in completion rate, 21st in yards/game) remain concerning. He has the 2nd highest first red rate, but his 28th-ranked drop rate indicates his receivers aren't helping. The matchup against Seattle is complicated. While the Seahawks were "cooked" by Mayfield last week, they were previously allowing a high 76.4 passer rating (28th most) and 6.0 yards per attempt (25th). They are expected to get key defensive players like Demarcus Lawrence, Julian Love, and Devon Witherspoon back this week. This could significantly bolster their defense, especially considering Lawrence ranks 25th against zone coverage, which Seattle plays at the 6th highest rate. While his rushing upside provides a solid floor, particularly with the Jaguars leading the league in points off turnovers, his passing efficiency against a potentially reinforced Seahawks defense makes him a cautious bet.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (-140)

 

RB Travis Etienne Jr.
Travis Etienne enters this week facing another tough opponent against a stout Seahawks run defense, making him a higher risk option despite good volume. While his overall season stats of 77 carries for 443 yards (an elite 5.8 YPC, 4th in the league) and two touchdowns, along with 9 catches for 41 yards and a receiving touchdown, showcase his talent, last week's performance was his worst of the season, yielding only 49 yards on 12 carries and 9 yards on 3 catches from 4 targets. His advanced metrics remain strong, ranking 2nd in YPC (5.75) and 9th in explosive run rate (6.5%), but a 44.2% stuff rate (11th highest) indicates he can be contained. This Jags offensive line ranks 8th in run blocking grading. The matchup against Seattle is particularly difficult, as they have allowed a mere 3.2 yards per carry (2nd fewest) and just 65.5 rushing yards per game (3rd fewest), while also ranking 6th in run defensive grading. This tough defensive front, combined with Etienne's dip in production last week, despite still handling 75% of the team's carries, creates a difficult scenario. Despite Etienne’s big play ability, this ins’t the matchup I’m looking to back him.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Bhayshul Tuten
Bhayshul Tuten is a risky option this week, primarily due to his lingering shoulder injury and an extremely challenging matchup against the Seahawks' formidable run defense. His season stats of 25 carries for 94 yards (3.8 YPC) and one touchdown, along with 4 catches for 45 yards and a receiving touchdown, are modest and don't inspire much confidence. Last week's performance was particularly concerning, with only 4 carries for 6 yards and 1 catch for 5 yards, after being questionable all week with that shoulder injury. As previously noted, the Seahawks boast one of the league's stingiest run defenses, allowing a mere 3.2 yards per carry (2nd fewest) and just 65.5 rushing yards per game (3rd fewest), while also ranking 6th in run defensive grading. With concerns about Tuten’s injury limiting his effectiveness and the team leaning on Etienne, he’s only a fade option at this point.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr. enters this week showing some life last week. Although, it’s been a real letdown of a season so far. Despite a season-long catch rate of 42.1% (16 receptions for 244 yards and no touchdowns on 38 targets), his performance last week, where he secured 6 catches for 80 yards on 6 targets and posted a season-high 2.35 yards per route, offers a glimmer of hope. His advanced metrics highlight his significant involvement in the Jaguars' passing game, boasting a 21.9% target share and a substantial 37.3% air yardage share, indicating a consistent role as a deep threat, primarily from an out-wide alignment (73.0%). While his 15.25 YPR is strong, his low 54.3 passer rating when targeted suggests inefficiency in connecting on those deep balls. However, a positive regression in his catch rate should happen, given his consistent target volume. The matchup against a Seahawks defense that plays zone at a high rate is also important, as Thomas has been targeted at the 18th highest rate among receivers against zone coverage. If the momentum from last week carries over and his catch rate normalizes, Thomas could provide solid value, making him a potentially rewarding bet. I’ll look overs or pass here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - LEAN

WR Travis Hunter
Travis Hunter presents a moderately appealing betting option this week, especially given his strong performance last week and a favorable matchup against the Seahawks' slot coverage. Despite a season-long stat line of 16 receptions for 182 yards and no touchdowns on 24 targets (66.6% catch rate), his efficiency was on full display last week, hauling in all 3 targets for an impressive 64 yards (mostly on one big catch). Hunter's advanced metrics highlight his role primarily from the slot (65.9% of snaps), where he shows a respectable 11.38 YPR and a solid 5.63 YAC/R. While his 14.2% target share and 17.1% of team receiving yards are not elite, the matchup against Seattle is particularly enticing for slot receivers. The Seahawks allow the 5th most receiving yards out of the slot (88.0) and the 9th highest catch rate (74.1%) to players in that alignment, suggesting Hunter could see increased volume and success. Although Seattle is 19th in yards per reception allowed, which might temper expectations for explosive plays, Hunter's efficient catch rate and ability to rack up YAC could make him a valuable play for bettors, particularly on his reception or total yards overs.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Hunter Long
Hunter Long enters this week as a potentially upside betting option, primarily due to the unfortunate injury to Brenton Strange, which elevates Long to the primary tight end role. Despite a limited season sample of 7 receptions for 44 yards and an impressive two touchdowns on just 8 targets (87.5% catch rate), his opportunity may jump up. While his advanced metrics, including 6.3 yards per reception and a low 2.1 yards after the catch per reception, suggest he's not an explosive playmaker, his high touchdown rate implies efficiency in the red zone. The fact that he only caught 1 ball for 3 yards after Strange left last week is a minor concern, but this week marks his first full game as the clear TE1. The matchup against the Seahawks is incredibly favorable for tight ends: Seattle has allowed the 9th most receiving yards (62.6), 3rd most receptions (7.00), and 3rd most targets (9.00) per game to the position. Given this prime matchup and his newfound primary role, Long is an attractive “buy low” betting option for receiving yards, receptions, and even a touchdown, making his overs particularly appealing this week.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-148)
Anytime TD (+450)

 Of course, we'll need to see how the injury report shakes out, but I really like this spot for Seattle. The Jaguars have been very lucky on turnovers and Seattle looks to bounce back from a tough loss last week. They rank top 5 in both offense and defense in terms of EPA and as much as JAX's defense is legit, the quesitons on offense still remain.

Best Bet: SEA Seahawks ML (-110)
Lean: Total under 47.5 (-110)
Score Prediction SEA 24 - JAX 20

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Seahawks): A.J. Barner +300
Coming off a two touchdown week, it's hard to ignore his redzone involvment to this point and we are still getting a playable price for it. The Jags have already allowed a pair of touchdowns to tight ends.

Longshot (Jaguars): Hunter Long +400
He led TE's in redzone targets when he was the TE2! Now he steps into the TE role and should continue to be involved near the goal line. He's a good blocker, so that can alwasy role him out in heavy personnel sets.

1st TD Picks

Best Bet (Jaguars): Brian Thomas Jr. +1100
Thomas' target share hasn't fully transalted, but we saw progres last week. He still leads this team in redzone targets and can score in the redzone or on a deep tatget from Lawrence. He's even used a little in the reverse game.

Best Bet (Seahawks): Jaxon-Smith Njigba +900
JSN has been an absolute beast and target hog in this offense. Top WR's like Chase and Collins have both scored on this Jaguars defense and JSNv should be involved early in the game plan.

Parlay #1  (Seahawks): +202 FanDuel

Sam Darnold 200+ Passing Yards

A.J. Barner 2+ Receptions

JSN 100+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 (Jaguars): +524 FanDuel

Trevor Lawrence 20+ Rush Yards

Zach Charbonnet u37.5 Rush Yards

Brian Thomas Jr. 60+ Receiving Yards

QB Dak Prescott

In my opinion, Dak has been one of the best QBs this season. He ranks second in passing yards behind Matthew Stafford and sixth in completion percentage. Completing 71.3% of your passes when throwing for over 1,300 yards through five weeks is pretty impressive. This week, he gets the Carolina Panthers, who, if you ask me, aren't as intimidating of a passing defence as the numbers would suggest. Carolina allows the 11th-fewest completions (20), pass attempts (30.6) and the 8th-fewest passing yards (211.6). The Panthers are a very zone-heavy team, running the coverage at the 3rd-highest rate (81.8%). Well, unfortunately for the Panthers, Dak crushes zone coverage. He ranks first in completion percentage (80.3%), the 3rd-highest passing yards per game (203.6), and the 7th-highest QBR (108.3). Going back to the Panthers' numbers looking better than they appear, let's look at the game script in some of these games. The Jags and Cardinals had 20-3 leads at the half, and didn't need to throw much in the second half. The Panthers blew out the Falcons, resulting in a lot of pass attempts, but when they got blown out against the Patriots, Maye had just 17 pass attempts. Last week, against the Dolphins, was a close game all the way down to the wire, and Tua had 36 pass attempts. Call me crazy, but against this Cowboys defence, I think the Panthers can keep this game competitive, which means Dak will need to use his arm a lot. Dak is averaging 39 pass attempts per game this season.

Suggested pick:

Dak Prescott o32.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

Dak Prescott 35+ Pass Attempts (+140)

Dak Prescott 40+ Pass Attempts (+425)

 

RB Javonte Williams

Javonte just keeps showing he is a lead back in the NFL, having his best game on the ground of his entire career with 135 rushing yards on 16 rush attempts against the Jets. This week, he faces off against the Panthers, who allow the 12th-fewest rush attempts (19) but the 14th-most rushing yards (90.8). The Panthers run a dead-even split in terms of zone concept (40%) and man/gap (40%). However, they struggle much more in zone concept, allowing a 4.98 yards per carry compared to 3.81 when running man/gap. For Javonte, it really doesn't matter what coverage they throw at him, as he has a 4.50 yards per carry against zone concept, but dominates man concept with a 6.85 yards per carry and has the 2nd-most rushing yards (274) against the coverage. Regardless of how the Panthers plan to defend Javonte, he should have another fantastic day on the ground. Williams has 75+ rushing yards in four straight games, and averages 89.4 rushing yards per game.

Suggested Pick:

Javonte Williams 75+ Rushing Yards (-115)

 

WR George Pickens

 

Pickens had a small volume day, but was still able to turn his four targets into two receptions for 57 receiving yards and a TD – mostly thanks to a 43-yard TD. This week, he gets the Panthers, who allow the 2nd-fewest receptions (8.8) and receiving yards (101.2) per game to opposing WRs. Pickens lines up out wide on 92% of his routes. To outside WRs, the Panthers are targeted at the 5th-lowest rate, allowing the 2nd-lowest catch rate (55.8%) and the 3rd-lowest yards after catch per reception (2.83). However, the Panthers are allowing the 14th-highest aDoT (12.2) and the 13th-highest yards per reception (13.66). That lines up fantastically for a deep target like Pickens. With Pickens running most of his routes out wide, he will often draw the Jaycee Horn matchup. Over the last three weeks, Horn has allowed nine receptions for 96 receiving yards with an average of 10.67 yards per reception. Against zone coverage, Pickens has the highest PFF grade of any Cowboys WRs, and actually sees his numbers improve compared to man coverage, which is surprising with how good of a contested catch receiver Pickens is — his catch rate (76.2%), yards per route run (2.41), aDoT (14.9) and contested catch rate (72.7%). We should see Pickens catch another deep ball in this matchup.

Suggested pick:

George Pickens o25.5 Longest Reception (-115)

George Pickens 30+ Longest Reception (+140)

 

WR Jalen Tolbert

Where the heck was Jalen Tolbert last week? He ran 76.3% of the routes, but saw just one target. He was overshadowed by Ryan Flournoy, who popped off with six receptions on nine targets for 114 receiving yards. Tolbert should be more involved this week, as he faces off against the Panthers, whose 0.24 targets per route run to slot receivers rank third in the NFL. They also allow a 68.2% catch rate and 64.8 receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Tolbert is primarily an outside WR, but with no CeeDee Lamb or Kavontae Turpin, he ran 43.3% of his routes from the slot. With an increase in slot snaps and the emergence of Flournoy on the outside, Tolbert will often draw the Tre'von Moehrig matchup. Moehrig has allowed a reception on 18 of his 22 targets this season, but a minimal 8.2 yards per reception. With all this said, Ferguson is actually the more targeted slot receiver, and with the emergence of Flournoy, he could cut into Tolbert's workload this week, so we'll hold off until we see his usage this week.

Suggested pick:

Pass

 

TE Jake Ferguson

Don't look now, but Ferguson has the most TE targets (by nine) and the fourth-most targets of any receiver (48) this season. He's been completely matchup-proof; however, this week, we won't have to worry about that, as he faces off against the Panthers' defence, who allow the 8th-most receptions (6.4) and the most receiving yards (80.2) per game to opposing TEs. Ferguson has done his best job this season against zone coverage, catching 25 of his 28 targets for 191 receiving yards and two of his TDs. He sees his catch rate (89.3%), yards per reception (7.16), yards after catch per reception (5.2), and yards per route run (2.42) drastically improve when switching from man to zone coverage. Ferguson lines up in the slot or in-line on 93.3% of his routes. To slot/in-line receivers in zone coverage, the Panthers allow the 10th-lowest catch rate (72.2%), but the 4th-highest receiving yards (91.2) per game. It's wheels up for Ferguson this season.

Suggested pick:

Jake Ferguson o48.5+ Receiving Yards (-110)

Jake Ferguson 60+ Receiving Yards (+160)

Jake Ferguson 70+ Receiving Yards (+260)

Jake Ferguson 80+ Receiving Yards (+400)

QB Bryce Young

Despite a 2-3 record, there's no denying Carolina stinks, but one thing they don't do is take home-field advantage for granted. Going back to last season, 7 of the Panthers last 8 home games have been decided by 7 points or less. They will need Bryce Young to play outstanding under center to have any chance of beating Dallas this Sunday, but if there's ever a matchup to back Young this is it. The Cowboys have been an extremely giving defense to opposing QBs in '25, to put it mildly. They've allowed quarterbacks to throw for 304.0 pass YPG (most in NFL) and run for 29.6 rush YPG (6th most). However, before you start getting all excited about Bryce Young, let's take a deeper look into this. First, the Carolina QB has eclipsed the 200 yard passing mark just once in 5 starts this year and his 5.5 YPPA ranks 31st in the league. Next, DAL plays zone-coverage on 81.5% of their defensive snaps (4th highest rate), and when facing zone reads Young has thrown 1 TD to 4 INTs for a 66.8 rating (32nd). Moreover, Young ranks 31st among NFL quarterbacks in completion rate vs zone (63.0%) and 32nd in YPPA (5.4). Yes, the Cowboys have been torched by opposing QBs, but last year they faced Bryce Young in Carolina and he completed only 19 of 28 PA's for 219 yards to go with 1 TD and 2 INT. Despite this game being played in Carolina, the Cowboys will most likely outnumber Panthers fans by a 2:1 margin. Young is just too inconsistent put money on his yardage totals, but we hammered him to throw an INT earlier this season and he delivered. I expect the same result against a Dallas team that is increasing its pressure rate with each week. The Cowboys pressured Jordan Love on 41.4% of his dropbacks in week 4 and last Sunday they sent pressure at Justin Fields at a 47.2% clip. Bryce Young has completed just 47.0% of his passes (25th) for 5.1 YPA when being pressured (24th).

Suggested Pick:

Bryce Young o0.5 Interceptions (-103)

 

RB Rico Dowdle

Carolina has officially ruled out Chubba Hubbard (calf strain) for this Sunday, so Rico Dowdle will try his best to provide an encore fitting of his performance from last week. The Panthers RB was phenomenal last week, totaling 26 touches for 206 yards and a TD. Dowdle, a once former Cowboy, averaged 7.4 YAC as he forced 8 missed tackles in week 5. He has a very nice matchup against Dallas, who is allowing the 27th most yards to opposing backfields (152.1 YPG), and nearly 1/3 of all runs vs the Cowboys have yielded either a first down or a touchdown. Sunday should be a great revenge spot for Rico Dowdle. The 3-point spread tells us this game is going to be much closer than most are expecting, and that only adds to Dowdle's value. Rico is effective both as a rusher and a pass-catching back and it's for that reason I'm backing his rushing + receiving yards total.

Suggested Pick:

Rico Dowdle Rush + Rec Yards (props not yet available)

Rico Dowdle Anytime TD (-120)

 

WR Tetairoa McMillan

Tetairoa McMillan hauled in 6 catches on 8 targets for 73 yards last Sunday. The Carolina rookie WR is still waiting to find the end zone for his first career touchdown, but in the meantime he continues to provide the Bryce Young with a consistent receiving presence. McMillan has posted at least 8 or more targets in each the first five weeks this season, and he's turned in 4+ receptions and 60+ yards in four of those games. There is some cause for concern here as it relates to McMillan's week 6 matchup with Dallas. The Cowboys as they are playing zone-coverage on 81.6% of their defensive snaps (4th highest), and McMillan has been stuck lining up out wide on 85.0% of his snaps. Carolina prefers to use him in one-on-one situations where he's getting targeted on nearly 38% of his routes, but against zone, this drops drastically to 21.5%. It also doesn't help that Bryce Young is just 17 for 50 (34.0%) on passes of 10+ yards.

Suggested Pick:

Tetairoa McMillan u72.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

 

WR Jalen Coker

Jalen Coker will return from the IR for week 6 to finally make his season debut for the Panthers head coach Dave Canales said Coker "looked great" after practice on Friday, then added "he looked fast and he looked explosive." It appears Coker will have an opportunity to make an immediate impact against a Dallas defense who is allowing 188.8 YPG to opposing wide receivers (2nd most in NFL). He should fill into the slot role and as a flanker nicely on Sunday. Despite a strong vote of confidence from Canales, it's hard to truly forecast what we can expect out of Coker. What we do know is that he posted at least 25+ receiving yards in 7 of 9 games last season, averaging 49.8 YPG. The Cowboys play at a fast pace and they've allowed 280+ passing yards in four straight games. Last year, Coker caught 4 balls for 110 yards in Carolina. Let that sink in for a minute.

Suggested Pick:

Jalen Coker 25+ Receiving Yards (-137)

Jalen Coker 40+ ALT Receiving Yards (+175)

Jalen Coker 50+ ALT Receiving Yards (+289)

 

TE Ja'Tavion Sanders/Tommy Tremble

Ja'Tavion Sanders was a full participant in practice on Friday and he will be a game-time decision on Sunday. As of now, there are no props available for either Sanders or Tommy Tremble, who was beyond disappointing last week. Last year, the pair combined for 2 receptions on 3 targets for just 15 yards. I'm staying away from both in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

I think the Panthers can keep this game competitive. This Panthers offense has shown the ability to score some points. Give me the Over and a victory for Dallas. 

Best Bet: Over 48.5 -140
Lean: Cowboys -2.5 -130
Score Prediction Cowboys 27 Panthers 24

Anytime TD Picks

 

Best Pick: (Cowboys): Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+140)

Third time's the charm? We've taken Ferguson for two straight weeks now, and he just keeps scoring. He now has three TDs over that span, and gets the Panthers' defence, who allow the sixth most TDs to TEs this season. Pickens has by far the most red zone targets (9), but Ferguson isn't far behind with five and has the highest first-read percentage (27.5%) on the Cowboys.

 

Best Play (Panthers):  Rico Dowdle  -120

Rico Dowdle has already made it clear to Dallas prior to Sunday's game when he told his former to team to "buckle up." The Panthers RB is coming off a career game, where racked up 206 total yards and a TD vs Miami in week 5. He will face a Cowboys defense in which 31.6% of their opponents runs have resulted in either a first down or touchdown. Give me Dowdle all day against Dallas. 

 

Best Play (Colts):  Michael Pittman  +175

Pittman has 4 touchdowns so far this season and gets another nice matchup vs Arizona. He leads the team with 6 redzone targets, with the next highest at 2! We'll continue to ride the wave here as IND continues to score at will.

 

First TD Picks

 

Best Pick: (Cowboys) Javonte Williams First TD (+550)

Look, are these good odds? No. But Javonte is a red zone machine, scoring six TDs through five weeks. He has dominated the inside-the-five carries with 77.5% of them this season, and hasn't scored the first TD since Week 1, despite scoring so many times.

 

Best Play (Panthers):  Rico Dowdle  +550

This more of the same from what I have already said about Dowdle in his game guide write up, along his summary for the Anytime TD. The Panthers RB has put Dallas and notice and he's got an ax to grind with his former team on Sunday. Dowdle will get all of the goal-line carries for Carolina and he has added value due to his pass-catching ability out of the backfield. 

Parlay 1: (Cowboys) +210 odds on bet365

Dak Prescott 30+ Pass Attempts

Javonte Williams 70+ Rushing Yards

Jake Ferguson 40+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 2: (Cowboys Longshot) +2600 odds on bet365

Dak Prescott 40+ Pass Attempts

Javonte Williams 80+ Rushing Yards

Jake Ferguson 80+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #1 (Panthers):  Best Play  +525 DraftKings

Bryce Young +1 Interceptions

Rico Dowdle Anytime TD

Jalen Coker 25+ Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Panthers):  Longshot  +2700 DraftKings

Bryce Young +1 Interceptions

Rico Dowdle 2+ TDs

Jalen Coker 40+ Receiving Yards

QB Cam Ward
Cam Ward continues to struggle this season. With a 51.8% completion rate, 879 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions through the season. Last week he put together a 21-for-39, 265-yard, zero-touchdown, one-interception outing last week in a come from behind win. His 5.36 YPA and 64.0 passer rating suggest limited downfield success, despite an 11th-ranked aDOT, indicating a struggle to connect on deeper throws. The offensive line isn't helping, as evidenced by a 9.9% sack rate and a high 40.6% pressure rate. However, there might be a glimmer of hope after showing us a nice fourth quarter last week from Ward. This week he gets a Raiders' defense, which plays zone at the second-highest rate and ranks poorly in pass rush (27th) and coverage (30th) grading. While they allow the 14th most passing yards (233.8) and 1.4 passing touchdowns per game, their 24th-ranked pressure rate (32.0%) could give Ward more time in the pocket. Still, Ward's 32nd ranking in completion rate and adjusted completion percentage, coupled with the Titans' league-worst 3rd down conversion rate, makes him a risky bet even against a struggling defense. Given the solid matchup and showing some life last week, I think it’s over or pass. Finally seeing Cam and Ridley connect when they needed it was a thing of beauty.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 190.5 Passing Yards (-110)

 

RB Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard presents a mixed bag for bettors this week. While his season stats show a decent 4.0 YPC (11th in the league) with two touchdowns on 82 carries, his advanced metrics paint a less inspiring picture, including a low 1.2% explosive run rate (30th), but a low 41.5% stuff rate (8th lowest). Last week, he had a solid outing with 14 carries for 67 yards and a touchdown, plus three catches for 11 yards. However, a significant concern is his reduced workload, handling a season-low 77.3% of touches with Spears returning and expected to see more involvement. This could limit Pollard's overall volume. The matchup against the Raiders is also tough, as they allow the 10th fewest rushing yards per game (78.0) and rank 23rd in rush defense grading, indicating a generally stout run defense despite their lower overall grading. Furthermore, with Cam Ward holding the lowest RB target rate in the league (9.3%), Pollard's receiving upside, which could mitigate a tough run defense, may be less of an option. Overall, while Pollard has shown flashes, the combination of a tough matchup, a potentially reduced workload, and a quarterback who doesn't target running backs frequently makes him a cautious play this week.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 11.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

RB Tyjae Spears
Spears made his 2025 debut this week with 4 carries for 14 yards. The offensive coordinator came out and said that Spears’ workload would grow in coming weeks. RB coach, Randy Jordan, talks about how they’ve gotten his feet wet and we’ll integrate him more in the offense this week. Pollard has been a complete nothing in the passing game thus far, and that’s where Spears could excel. Love to back Spears in this spot, despite not getting a target last week. LVR’s defense plays a lot of Cover 3, which could open up shorter passing options in this one, despite Ward’s lack of focus on RB’s in the target game.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 5.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Calvin Ridley
Calvin Ridley presents an intriguing option this week after his first big week against the Cardinals. Finally, we saw real chemistry and trust between Ward and Ridley. Despite a modest season-long stat line of 15 catches for 272 yards and no touchdowns on 34 targets (44.1% catch rate), his performance last week—5 catches for 131 yards on 10 targets—suggests a potential breakout coming. His advanced metrics highlight his role as a deep threat, with an impressive 18.13 YPR and a significant 35.0% air yardage share. While his 19.5% target share and 30.9% of team receiving yards are respectable, his 26.7% first-read percentage and 76.6 passer rating when targeted show room for improvement in efficiency. The matchup against the Raiders bodes well for Ridley's deep-play potential. Las Vegas has been particularly vulnerable to downfield passes, allowing a 55% catch rate to wide receivers on throws 10+ yards downfield (7th highest) and an even worse 57.1% on throws 20+ yards downfield (4th highest). This, combined with Ridley's 13th highest target rate against zone coverage, a scheme the Raiders heavily utilize, could allow Ridley to have another nice outing this week. He’s certainly not worth fading this week and if the Titan’s passing offense can gain some momentum form last week, Ridley should be the first to benefit.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Elic Ayomanor
Elic Ayomanor enters this week's matchup as a speculative option. While his season stats of 14 catches for 169 yards and two touchdowns on 29 targets (48.2% catch rate) are modest, his advanced metrics paint him as a legitimate outside and downfield threat, with 90.3% of his snaps coming out wide and a 29.3% air yardage share. His 12.07 YPR suggests he can gain chunks of yardage, though his 2.29 YAC/R shows he hasn’t done much after the catch. He’s been much more of a jump ball guy than one to work after the catch. Last week's performance of 2 catches for 18 yards on 4 targets was underwhelming and he truly looked like the secondary option in this offense. The matchup against the Raiders offers some upside, as they allow the 9th highest yards per target (7.90) and the 4th highest out-wide target rate (45.3%), which aligns with Ayomanor's primary alignment. However, the Raiders are only 18th in deep throw rate allowed, which could limit Ayomanor's big-play potential. Given that there are limited passing yards to go around in this offense, Ayomanor appears to be a high-risk, high-reward proposition. Unless Ridley struggles or is bottled up, I’m not expecting a huge game from Ayomanor, outside of one big catch.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
Chig Okonkwo enters this week facing a stingy Raiders defense against tight ends and a concerning trend in his own usage. His season stat line of 17 catches for 172 yards on 24 targets (70.8% catch rate) indicates efficiency when targeted. His advanced metrics show a respectable 10.1 yards per reception and a solid 6.8 yards after the catch per reception, but his low 4.3 aDOT suggests he's primarily used on shorter routes, which often yield fewer explosive plays. Last week's performance of 4 catches for 48 yards on 5 targets was decent, but a major red flag is his diminishing route participation - he ran only two more routes than rookie Gunnar Helm, who appears to be taking over the primary inline tight end role. This directly impacts Okonkwo's opportunity, especially when considering the Raiders' matchup statistics: they allow the 4th fewest receptions (3.20), 6th fewest targets (5.20), and 10th fewest receiving yards (42.2) per game to tight ends. Given the tough matchup and his shrinking role in the offense, Okonkwo’s under look tempting. We’ll continue to monitor Helm’s usage in the coming weeks, as he is more of a 2-way tight end (blocks and can pass catch).

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Geno Smith

Geno Smith finds himself under mounting pressure heading into Week 6, both literally and figuratively. The veteran quarterback has thrown multiple interceptions in three of his last five games, and his timing has been off on intermediate routes — a troubling sign for a rhythm passer. While Tennessee’s secondary has allowed the 15th-most passing yards per game (231.0), they’ve compensated by keeping everything in front of them, surrendering one of the lowest explosive pass rates in football. The Titans’ defense thrives on forcing checkdowns and rallying to the ball, and with Las Vegas’ offensive line struggling to hold up in protection, Smith may again be forced into a dink-and-dunk approach. Expect plenty of short completions to Jakobi Meyers and Ashton Jeanty as the Raiders try to establish flow early and avoid turnovers. If the Raiders fall behind, volume will inflate his passing total even if efficiency lags — making a high-attempt outing the most likely scenario.

Suggested Play: 

'O' 34.5 Passing Attempts (-115)

 

RB Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty remains the bright spot in a struggling Raiders offense, commanding 80% of the backfield snaps and contributing as both a runner and receiver. His burst and contact balance continue to stand out — averaging 4.7 yards per carry and forcing missed tackles at a top-five rate among running backs. The Titans’ defensive front, however, will be his toughest test yet. Tennessee allows the third-most rushing yards per game but compensates with disciplined red-zone defense, yielding few rushing touchdowns. Jeanty’s involvement in the passing game (five catches for 42 yards last week) makes him nearly game-script proof, as the Raiders will likely rely on his versatility to move the chains and keep Smith out of long passing downs. Expect another high-volume day where his efficiency through the air becomes the key factor.

Suggested Play:

'O' 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-118)

 

WR Jakobi Meyers

Jakobi Meyers enters Week 6 as Geno Smith’s most reliable possession receiver, though his production has dipped amid the Raiders’ offensive turmoil. He has continued to operate as the short-to-intermediate route runner, seeing a 17% target share with a consistent role in the slot. The Titans’ zone-heavy defense (74.2% of snaps) plays right into Meyers’ strengths — he’s averaging over two yards per route run against zone coverage, thriving in soft pockets underneath. Tennessee ranks 14th in receiving yards allowed to slot receivers and struggles to close space on timing routes over the middle. Meyers should see steady volume again this week, especially if Brock Bowers remains limited. Expect a high catch total in another game where the Raiders lean heavily on short passing to stay competitive.

Suggested Play:

Over 5.5 Receptions (+135)

 

WR Tre Tucker

Tre Tucker’s explosiveness continues to flash, and his ability to win vertically gives the Raiders’ offense a needed spark. Tennessee’s secondary, while improved, has been repeatedly exposed by deep threats — allowing the eighth-highest yards per route run to perimeter receivers (2.25). Tucker has averaged nearly 16 yards per catch this season, and his 1.95 yards per route run versus zone shows his knack for finding seams behind safeties. Expect the Raiders to manufacture touches for him early — perhaps through jet sweeps and deep crossers — to loosen up the Titans’ safeties and open up the underneath game for Meyers. If Geno Smith can buy enough time against Tennessee’s four-man rush, Tucker has the potential to break this game open on a single explosive play.

Suggested Play:

'O' 19.5 Yard Longest Reception (-115)

 

TE Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers remains the heartbeat of Las Vegas’s offense when healthy, but lingering knee issues have capped his explosiveness and limited his snap count. Against a Titans defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in tight end coverage metrics, Bowers’ return would instantly shift attention back to the middle of the field. Tennessee deploys zone at one of the NFL’s highest rates, and Bowers has been lethal sitting down between linebackers, averaging over 2.2 yards per route run against such looks. If he suits up, expect short-area targets designed to ease him back into rhythm — quick outs, option routes, and red-zone play-actions. If he’s ruled out, expect Michael Mayer to inherit much of that volume, particularly in the flat and on leak routes off play-action.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+175)

Raiders looked really bad last week while the Titans made a crazy 4Q comeback on the road last week. I think the Titans ride the momentum and the Raiders start rusty as they will be without Brock Bowers. Titans mini upset and the under

Best Bet: Titans +3.5 -110
Lean: Under 41.5 -115
Score Prediction Titans 20 Raiders 17

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Raiders): Brock Bowers (+195)

Brock Bowers remains the heartbeat of Las Vegas’s offense when healthy, but lingering knee issues have capped his explosiveness and limited his snap count. Against a Titans defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in tight end coverage metrics, Bowers’ return would instantly shift attention back to the middle of the field. Tennessee deploys zone at one of the NFL’s highest rates, and Bowers has been lethal sitting down between linebackers, averaging over 2.2 yards per route run against such looks. If he suits up, expect short-area targets designed to ease him back into rhythm — quick outs, option routes, and red-zone play-actions. If he’s ruled out, expect Michael Mayer to inherit much of that volume, particularly in the flat and on leak routes off play-action.

Best Bet (Titans): Calvin Ridley +320

We saw productive chemistry from Ward and Ridley last week for the first time this season in a 4th quarter come back. Ward was actively looking for Ridley and that should continue here in another solid matchup.

1st TD Picks

Best Bet (Raiders): Ashton Jeanty +320

Ashton Jeanty has quickly emerged as the Raiders’ most dynamic offensive weapon, handling over 75% of the backfield touches and leading the team in total yards in three of his last four games. His combination of burst, contact balance, and vision gives Las Vegas a legitimate threat near the goal line — an area where Geno Smith has struggled to finish drives through the air. The Titans have been one of the league’s softer defenses early in games, allowing opening-drive touchdowns in three straight contests, often due to missed tackles and poor pursuit angles at the second level. Expect the Raiders to feature Jeanty immediately, using him on zone runs and quick swing passes to test Tennessee’s linebackers in space. His red-zone involvement (four carries inside the 10 over the last two weeks) and dual-threat usage make him the likeliest candidate to capitalize on an early scoring chance.

Longshot (Titans): Chimere Dike +3000

I'm going to keep after this one as TEN has yet to score a first touchdown this season. He still onlwns the most redzone usage of any player on this team. He's used in the deep game, on screen, as a rusher and as a returner. If you go with a Titan, this is the best value in my opinion.

Parlay #1 (Raiders) +640

Ashton Jeanty ATD

Brock Bowers ATD

Geno Smith 'O' 34.5 Pass Attempts

Parlay #2 (Titans) +407

Cam Ward 200+ Passing Yards

TEN Titans ML

Elic Ayomanor Record a 10+ Yard Reception

QB Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield is finally getting his just do, and is now generating serious talks of being the one of the frontrunning candidates for NFL MVP. He ranks 4th in passing yards (1283) and has tossed 10 TDs to only 1 INT. These numbers are a testament to just how good Mayfield has performed, considering everything Tampa Bay has faced on the injury front. Baker is coming off a week 5 game in which he shredded a strong Seattle defense on the road, completing a ridiculous 29 of 33 (87.9% CMP) passes for 379 yards and a pair of touchdown passes. He now returns home to face San Francisco who has given up the 10th fewest passing YPG (215.8), but it should be noted that Matthew Stafford just sliced them up like a hot knife through butter for 389 yards and 3 TDs. Last year, the Bucs starting QB had one of his worst outputs of the season against the 49ers, where he finished the game with just 116 yards passing and 1 TD. However, that was last year and TB was without both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Cade Otton was the only offensive threat for Mayfield, and Todd Bowles relied heavily on Bucky Irving and Rachaad White in that game. This year, Baker has the luxury of facing a Nick Bosa-less 49ers team who is generating the 3rd lowest pressure-rate (28.0%) in the league, and when surrounded by a clean pocket, Baker Mayfield is completing 70.6% of his passes with 7 touchdowns and 0 INT. With a high point total expected for this game, I feel very confident about his yardage total and Baker should be a lock for another 2 touchdown output.

Suggested Bet:

Baker Mayfield o239.5 Pass Yards (-112)

Baker Mayfield o1.5 Pass TDs (-181)

RB Rachaad White

With Bucky Irving expected to miss at least one more week it's time for another Sunday with Rachaad White. He dominated the workload in week 5, leading the Buccaneers backfield with 81.0% of the team's snaps and turned 18 touches into 71 yards and 2 TDs. In addition to 41 yards rushing, White caught all 4 of his targets for 30 yards receiving. While he logged just 2.9 YPC against Seattle, Rachaad has a far easier matchup this week on the ground at home when goes up against a mediocre 49ers run defense. They are near the middle of the pack, ranking 15th in YPC to opposing RBs (4.2), but much like last week, I really like Rachaad White to shine in the passing game. SF has limited running backs to the 12th fewest receiving YPG (26.6) out of the backfield, but contrary to this opposing RBs have 7th highest target receiving rate (21.2%) vs the 49ers. This has resulted in San Francisco allowing the 3rd most receptions per game (5.4) to the RB position in '25. Since 2023, White ranks 3rd in YAC (1196), 5th in receiving yards (1006) and 6th in receptions (127). Last week, Rachaad White was free money in the reception game and same will be true this week, and even more so with Chris Godwin out of the lineup.

Suggested Bet:

Rachaad White o3.5 Receptions (-152)
Rachaad White 5+ ALT Receptions (+139)
Rachaad White 6+ ALT Receptions (+265)

 

WR Emeka Egbuka

What more can possibly be said of Emeka Egbuka start to the '25 NFL season. The rookie WR caught all 7 of his targets for 163 yards and a TD, his 5th of the season already. The Tampa Bay rookie is the first player ever to record at least 25 receptions, 400 receiving yards and 5 TDs over the first 5 games of his career. The Bucs are hoping to have Mike Evans back next week, and the late breaking news out of One Buc Place is that Chris Godwin has had a setback and will also be sidelined for this Sunday. That means the entire field will be Egbuka's in week 6, and with just Evans off the field he has run 88 routes. The Ohio State alum has been targeted on 25% of those routes with 3.60 YPRR. Emeka has additional added value here and that's because the 49ers are a zone-heavy team, and they lean on Cover-3 (34.6%) and Cover-4 (23.9) for 57.3% of their defensive snaps. In fact, they run man coverage at the 6th lowest rate (15.0%) in the league. The one scheme Egbuka should really have the opportunity to exploit is San Francisco's Cover-4, a defense they run at the 2nd highest rate (23.9%) in the NFL. Against zone defense in general, Egbuka is averaging 2.92 YPRR but when facing Cover-4 this number skyrockets to 4.48 YPRR and has generated him a league-high 197 receiving yards. Against the 49ers primary coverages of Cover-3 and Cover-4, Puka Nacua caught 10 balls for 85 yards and a TD. Emeka Egbuka should be in for yet another big game this Sunday when he returns home to a jam-packed Raymond James Stadium.

Suggested Bet:

Emeka Egbuka 70+ Receiving Yards (-134)

Emeka Egbuka 6+ Receptions (-136)

Emeka Egbuka Anytime TD (+100)

 

WR Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard will step into the role as the Buccaneers #2 wide receiver this week, but he is extremely comfortable in this offense. The 10-year veteran has recorded 4+ catches in 3 of his L4 game, and beginning with week 1, Shepard has logged 39 (@ ATL), 34 (vs HOU), 80 (vs NYJ), 14 (vs PHI) and 24 (@ SEA) receiving yards for a total of 191 on the season. The reason we have seen Sterling Shepard be a consistent component to this Bucs offense over the last 2 years is because he and Baker Mayfield were teammates in Oklahoma so they have tons of chemistry together. Its hard to gauge what we can expect from Shepard on Sunday, especially with late emergence of Tez Johnson (4-49-0) in week 5. When facing Cover-3 and Cover-4, Shepard has caught 5 of his 6 targets for 63 yards. There are going to be a lot of people jumping on Shepard this week, and rightfully so, but I worry that Tez Johnson, who is dangerous in open space, could cut into Sterling's overall usage against the 49ers.

Suggested Bet:

Pass 

TE Cade Otton

Cade Otton was one of the deepest rabbit holes I went down so far this season, and much of that had to do with the Seahawks inflated defensive number against the TE position. But we hammered the Tampa tight end, and not only did he record 4 receptions, but Otton turned that into 81 yards. Don't expect a repeat performance out of the Buccaneer this week, against a 49ers defense that is allowing just 5.4 receptions per game (8th fewest) and 45.4 receiving YPG (15th fewest). San Francisco does allow the 9th highest catch-rate (69.4%) to opposing TEs. There is a reason Otton's reception line is set at 3.5 for plus money. Three receptions is nice play if you're looking at parlay piece with juice to add, but considering Otton needs 4 catches to hit this line and he's only had one game with 5 or more, we simply can't take a chance here. I think Tez Johnson's performance is going to figure in here, and that's why I like Cade Otton's under yards total. We already know his reception total is filled with question marks, and outside of last week's 81-yard performance in SEA that believe it or not was filled with YAC, he's posted yardage totals of 0 (@ ATL), 25 (@ HOU), 0 (vs NYJ ) and 9 (vs PHI).

Suggested Bet:

Cade Otton u30.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

 

Best Bet: 
Lean: 
Score Prediction 

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Buccaneers):  Rachaad White  -125

Getting -125 odds for an Anytime TD may not seem sexy, but with Rachaad White it's extremely reliable, especially with an expected over/under total hovering around 49.5 points. San Francisco has allowed just 2 rushing touchdowns this season, but entering week 5 the Seahawks had allowed only 1 and White found the end zone in that game. Despite playing the backup role to Bucky Irving in all but one game, Rachaad White has still scored 3 TDs this season. He simply has a nose for the goal-line, and if you are having doubts then consider this statistic. Since 2022, only 3 RBs in the NFL have scored at least 10+ rushing and 10+ receiving TD's. Those 3 are Christian McCaffrey, De'Von Achane and yes, Rachaad White.

 

Best Bet (49ers):  Kendrick Bourne  +230

Kendrick Bourne’s resurgence has come at the perfect time for San Francisco. With multiple injuries in the receiver room, Bourne has become the team’s primary boundary option, leveraging strong route discipline and physicality after the catch. Against a Buccaneers secondary that ranks bottom-10 in explosive pass plays allowed, Bourne’s experience against both man and zone coverage gives him a clear advantage. He’s been most productive on intermediate digs and curls — routes that attack Tampa Bay’s soft coverage shells. Expect Bourne to be the early go-to option on third downs and in the red zone, especially on play-action looks where Jones can take advantage of single coverage. His strong catch radius and toughness make him the likeliest receiver to find pay dirt if the 49ers reach the red zone.

 

1st TD Picks

Longshot (Buccaneers):  Emeka Egbuka  +650

Under the circumstances, Emeka Egbuka at +650 to score the First TD this Sunday is highway robbery. The Bucs will be at home this week and Emeka Egbuka has had at least 7+ targets in each of his L4 games. Mike Evans is still out and Chris Godwin is now sidelined. The Tampa Bay rookie WR has already caught 5 touchdowns this season, and he has found the end zone in all but one game. 

 

Longshot (49ers):  Jake Tonges  +1555

Jake Tonges continues to deliver in George Kittle’s absence, developing into a reliable option in the short-to-intermediate range. His seven-catch, one-touchdown performance last week underscored both his trust within the system and his growing chemistry with Mac Jones. Tampa Bay has been particularly vulnerable to tight ends in recent weeks, allowing multiple scores to A.J. Barner and Dallas Goedert. The Buccaneers’ linebackers tend to bite hard on play-action, leaving voids behind them that Tonges can exploit on crossing and sit routes. Expect Shanahan to call several boot-action plays designed to isolate Tonges against smaller defenders in the flat and red zone. His size and steady hands give him another opportunity to make an early impact in scoring territory.

Parlay 1: (Buccaneers):  Best Play  +204

Baker Mayfield 2+ Pass TDs

Rachaad White 4+ Receptions

Emeka Egbuka 5+ Receptions

 

Parlay 2: (Buccaneers):  Longshot  +1300

Baker Mayfield 3+ Pass TDs

Rachaad White 4+ Receptions

Rachaad White Anytime TD

Emeka Egbuka 6+ Receptions

Emeka Egbuka Anytime TD

 

Parlay 1: (49ers):  Best Play  +750

Kendrick Bourne ATD

Jake Tonges ATD

Mac Jones 'O' 249.5 Pass Yards

QB Joe Flacco

The Bengals went out and traded for Joe Flacco as Jake Browning has struggled to get this offense going. Flacco was not good with the Browns. He averaged 203.8 passing yards per game, 5.09 YPA (last amongst QBs with 20+ dropbacks) and a 58.1% completion rate. The Bengals offensive line will continue to be a problem. They have allowed a 45.3% pressure rate (2^nd highest) and 2.4 seconds average time to pressure (T-3^rd lowest). He’ll face a Packers defense that is middle of the pack in EPA/Pass allowed but has the 5^th highest pressure rate (44.3%). Flacco averaged 4.48 YPA and a 38.7% completion rate when pressured with the Browns. That compares to 5.48 YPA and a 70.4% completion rate when not pressured. The Packers top 3 coverages are Cover 3 (37.4%), Cover 2 (21.3%) and Cover 1 (18.4%). Flacco is averaging 4.75 YPA and a 51.8% completion rate against these 3 coverages. That compares to 5.86 YPA and a 72% completion rate against all other coverages. He does have better weapons in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but it’s hard to see Flacco lighting it up in his first game against a Packers defense that gets to the QB.

Suggested Pick:

Under 207.5 Passing Yards (-120)

 

RB Chase Brown

Chase Brown is averaging 32 rushing yards per game on 2.46 YPC. The productivity struggles are partially due to the offensive line. The Bengals are dead last in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (0.86). In week 6, Brown will face a Packers defense that ranks 9^th in EPA/Rush allowed and has allowed the 2^nd fewest rushing yards per game (77.5). They have allowed just 1 explosive rush the entire season. The Bengals are 14.5-point underdogs, so wouldn’t expect much rushing volume as well playing from behind. In the receiving game, Brown is averaging 19 yards per game on a 43.6% route rate. He’s averaging 1.2 YPRR and 28% TPRR. The Packers are the 6^th toughest matchup in terms of EPA/Pass allowed to the backfield, allowing the 8^th fewest receiving yards per game. The Packers do however allow the 5^th highest backfield target rate (20%). Flacco targeted his backfield at a 21.7% rate from weeks 1 to 4, 8^th highest. Browning has targeted his backfield at a 20% rate in his starts. Considering Flacco may not have fully digested the playbook and the Packers love to bring pressure, I could see Brown seeing a lot of dump offs.

Suggested Pick:

Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Over 3.5 Receptions (-114)

5+ Receptions (+188)

 

WR Ja’Marr Chase

In his first 2 games this season, Ja’Marr was averaging 95.5 receiving yards per game, 2.62 YPRR and was targeted on 29% of his routes. He had an elite 1^st-read rate of 42.6%. In Browning’s first 2 starts, Chase averaged just 36.5 receiving yards per game, 1.33 YPRR and 25% TPRR. He finally exploded last week, catching 6 of 9 targets for 110 yards and 2 TDs. He’ll now have Joe Flacco throwing him the ball. He’ll face a Packers defense that has allowed the 3^rd fewest YPRR to wide and slot alignment. The Packers are 5^th in pressure rate and Flacco was the worst QB in the league statistically with the Browns against pressure. The Packers top 3 coverages are Cover 3 (37.4%), Cover 2 (21.3%) and Cover 1 (18.4%). Chase has negative splits against these 3 coverages, averaging 1.41 YPRR and 25% TPRR. That compares to 3.70 YPRR and 28% TPRR against all other coverages.

Suggested Pick:

Under 61.5 Receiving Yards (-117)

 

WR Tee Higgins

Through 2 games this season, Tee Higgins was averaging 44.5 receiving yards per game, 1.29 YPRR and was targeted on only 17% of his routes. He was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.4%. Since Browning has been starter, Higgins is averaging 23 receiving yards per game, 0.77 YPRR and 17% TPRR. He’ll now have Joe Flacco throwing him the rock. He’ll face a Packers defense that has allowing the 2^nd fewest YPRR to wide alignment (1.62). Higgins has lined up outside on 87.4% of his routes. The Packers are 5^th in pressure rate and Flacco was the worst QB in the league statistically with the Browns against pressure. The Packers top 3 coverages are Cover 3 (37.4%), Cover 2 (21.3%) and Cover 1 (18.4%). Higgins has positive splits against these coverages, averaging 1.29 YPRR compared to 0.46 YPRR against all other coverages. He had negative splits in a larger sample size last season, averaging 1.89 YPRR against these coverages compared to 2.48 against all other coverages. Maybe Flacco will have better chemistry with Higgins, but I’m fading Higgins until we see otherwise.

Suggested Pick:

Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

 

TE Mike Gesicki/Noah Fant/Drew Sample

The Bengals continue to use 3 tight ends, but Gesicki is seeing the most routes. He’s averaging a 47% route rate, compared to Fant and Sample’s 27.6% and 24.9% respectively. Fant is averaging 20 receiving yards per game, Gesicki is averaging 12.2 and Sample is averaging 5.2. None of these guys have consistent enough roles to recommend betting on. The Packers are allowing the 6^th most receiving yards and the most receptions to opposing TEs, but again the roles for these guys have been inconsistent. If you’re going for upside I’d choose Gesicki based on route share, but I’m choosing to pass.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love is coming off one of his sharpest performances of the season, displaying poise and precision while throwing for 337 yards and three touchdowns in a high-pressure environment against Dallas. This week’s matchup against Cincinnati sets up favorably for another strong outing. The Bengals rank 28th in pressure rate (31.1%), allowing quarterbacks ample time to operate, and Love has been lethal from a clean pocket — averaging 10.5 yards per attempt with a passer rating north of 130 when unhurried. Expect Matt LaFleur to leverage play-action and layered crossing concepts to exploit the Bengals’ zone-heavy defense, which has surrendered the fourth-most passing yards per game (269.4). Love’s improved chemistry with Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft should help sustain long drives, especially in red-zone situations where he’s been most efficient.

Suggested Play:

'O' 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+195)

 

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs enters Week 6 in a smash spot against a Bengals defense that has been gashed repeatedly on the ground. Cincinnati ranks fourth-worst in rushing yards allowed per game (122.6) and sixth in yards before contact per attempt, an alarming indicator of weak interior line play. Jacobs has seen elite usage once again this season, averaging over 20 touches per game and serving as a focal point in both the run and pass game. Expect LaFleur to lean on him early to control tempo and set up play-action looks for Love, especially with the Packers favored to play from ahead. The Bengals’ linebackers have struggled to fill gaps against zone runs, an area where Jacobs thrives due to his patience and burst through tight lanes. With goal-line work firmly his, Jacobs is in prime position to make an early statement.

 

Suggested Play:

First Touchdown Scorer (+270)

 

WR Romeo Doubs

Romeo Doubs continues to evolve as Jordan Love’s most trusted perimeter option. His ability to separate against both man and zone coverage makes him a key chess piece in this week’s matchup with Cincinnati’s secondary, which has allowed a 67.8% completion rate to opposing wideouts. The Bengals’ frequent use of Cover 3 and Cover 1 leaves soft spots along the sidelines and intermediate seams — areas where Doubs has excelled, averaging nearly 2.9 yards per route run against those looks. Expect Green Bay to feature him on slants and deep comebacks to exploit mismatches against Cincinnati’s corners, who have been among the league’s least effective in preventing yards after the catch. With Jayden Reed sidelined, Doubs’ target share should climb, and another high-volume performance feels inevitable.

Suggested Play:

'O' 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

WR Matthew Golden

Rookie receiver Matthew Golden has quietly carved out a reliable role in this Packers offense. His speed and versatility have made him a threat on both quick screens and intermediate crossers, and he’s been used creatively on end-arounds to stretch defenses horizontally. The Bengals have struggled to contain shifty slot receivers all season, allowing one of the league’s highest yards-after-catch totals to players aligned inside. Expect LaFleur to design several manufactured touches to get Golden in open space early, particularly on first downs and scripted drives. His growing chemistry with Jordan Love has been evident in recent weeks, and his ability to find soft zones against Cincinnati’s two-high looks could lead to another efficient outing.

Suggested Play:

'O' 3.5 Receptions (+140)

 

TE Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft’s emergence as a dependable safety valve for Jordan Love adds another dimension to Green Bay’s passing attack. His physicality after the catch and steady route-running have allowed him to exploit soft spots in zone coverage, an area where the Bengals have been exposed all season. Cincinnati ranks fourth-worst in receiving yards allowed to tight ends (69.0 per game) and has yielded at least five catches to the position in four straight contests. With defenses forced to account for Jacobs and Doubs on early downs, Kraft should find favorable matchups up the seams and in red-zone sets. Look for Green Bay to dial up multiple play-action boots that free him into open grass near the numbers — a staple of LaFleur’s offense.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+182)

The Bengals now have a non mobile QB with that O-line now. Terrible sign coming into this game facing an unreal Packers pass rush. The Packers had that offense looking really good last week. Packers in a route 

Best Bet: Packers -13.5 -120
Lean: Packers 'O' 29.5 Pts -115
Score Prediction Bengals 14 Packers 31

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet (Packers) Tucker Kraft +182

Tucker Kraft’s emergence as a dependable safety valve for Jordan Love adds another dimension to Green Bay’s passing attack. His physicality after the catch and steady route-running have allowed him to exploit soft spots in zone coverage, an area where the Bengals have been exposed all season. Cincinnati ranks fourth-worst in receiving yards allowed to tight ends (69.0 per game) and has yielded at least five catches to the position in four straight contests. With defenses forced to account for Jacobs and Doubs on early downs, Kraft should find favorable matchups up the seams and in red-zone sets. Look for Green Bay to dial up multiple play-action boots that free him into open grass near the numbers — a staple of LaFleur’s offense.

 

Mike Gesicki (Bengals) +750

This is a longshot because the Bengals have been playing 3 TEs, but I’ll go with the guy with the highest route share. I like the matchup as the Packers have allowed 25.2% of fantasy points against them to be from the TE position, 3^rd highest share in the league.

 

1st TD Picks

Best Bet (Packers) Josh Jacobs +270

Tucker Kraft’s emergence as a dependable safety valve for Jordan Love adds another dimension to Green Bay’s passing attack. His physicality after the catch and steady route-running have allowed him to exploit soft spots in zone coverage, an area where the Bengals have been exposed all season. Cincinnati ranks fourth-worst in receiving yards allowed to tight ends (69.0 per game) and has yielded at least five catches to the position in four straight contests. With defenses forced to account for Jacobs and Doubs on early downs, Kraft should find favorable matchups up the seams and in red-zone sets. Look for Green Bay to dial up multiple play-action boots that free him into open grass near the numbers — a staple of LaFleur’s offense.

 

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) +1500

Chase will have Joe Flacco throwing him the ball instead of Browning this week. Chase finally went off last week, I don’t love this week’s matchup, but he’s talented enough that I think Flacco looks towards him near the end zone. Flacco’s also known as a gunslinger, wouldn’t be surprised if we see an explosive play to Chase early for a TD.

Parlay #1 (Packers): +865

Jordan Love 'O' 2.5 Pass TDs

Matthew Golden 'O' 3.5 Receptions

Romeo Doubs 'O' 42.5 Receiving Yards

 

Parlay #2 (Bengals) +929

Joe Flacco Under 207.5 Passing Yards

Chase Brown 5+ Receptions

Chase Brown Under 44.5 Rushing Yards

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff enters Week 6 in excellent rhythm, leading the NFL in touchdown passes while maintaining elite efficiency from a clean pocket. He’s completing over 75% of his throws and has thrown multiple touchdowns in three of his last five games. This week, he faces a Kansas City defense that leads the league in pressure rate (50%) — a stark contrast to the limited pressure he’s seen recently. Goff’s production drops significantly under duress, but Detroit’s offensive line, ranked among the league’s best in pass protection, gives him a fighting chance to stay comfortable. Expect offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to lean heavily on play-action and quick-hitting routes to neutralize Kansas City’s rush. If Goff can get into rhythm early, his efficiency should hold against a defense that’s allowed the 13th-highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks this season.

Suggested Play:

'O' 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-129)

 

RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery continues to anchor the Lions’ ground game, bringing power and consistency between the tackles. Averaging over 13 touches per game and among the league leaders in red-zone carries, Montgomery’s bruising running style pairs perfectly with Detroit’s dominant offensive line. Kansas City has been solid but not elite against the run, giving up the 12th-most rushing yards per game and struggling to stuff inside zone runs at the line of scrimmage. Montgomery thrives in those zone looks, converting over 67% of such plays into successful gains. Expect Detroit to lean on him early to wear down the Chiefs’ defensive front and establish control of the game’s tempo. If the Lions move the ball efficiently, Montgomery is the most likely candidate to finish drives near the goal line.

Suggested Play:

First Touchdown Scorer (+640)

 

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs’ versatility continues to make him one of the most dynamic playmakers in Detroit’s offense. Splitting touches with Montgomery, Gibbs has been effective as both a runner and receiver, posting 87+ scrimmage yards in four straight games. Against Kansas City, his matchup comes primarily through the air — the Chiefs have allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game to running backs and have struggled to contain speed out of the backfield. Expect Gibbs to be heavily featured on swing passes and motion routes designed to stretch the Chiefs’ linebackers horizontally. With his acceleration and agility, Gibbs is capable of turning short passes into chunk gains, especially against an aggressive pass rush that often leaves space underneath. He should see an expanded role in no-huddle and third-down situations.

Suggested Play:

'O' 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the heartbeat of Detroit’s passing attack, a volume monster who’s built his reputation on precision and consistency. Facing a Chiefs defense that plays two-high coverage on over 60% of snaps, St. Brown’s ability to find seams between safeties makes him a constant threat in the intermediate game. He’s been nearly unstoppable against both man and zone looks, ranking among the league leaders in yards per route run in both categories. Kansas City has quietly struggled against slot receivers, allowing over 840 yards from the position — the fourth-highest mark in the league. Expect Goff to rely on St. Brown heavily on third downs and in the red zone, where his body control and timing create separation even against tight coverage.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (+100)

 

TE Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta continues to prove himself as a cornerstone of Detroit’s offensive structure, combining athleticism with advanced route-running for a rookie tight end. He exploded for 92 yards and a touchdown last week, and while Kansas City has been one of the stingiest teams against tight ends this year, LaPorta’s role gives him opportunities regardless of matchup. The Chiefs deploy two-high shells at the third-highest rate in the league, often leaving open space underneath where LaPorta excels. Expect him to serve as a critical checkdown option against Kansas City’s relentless pass rush, particularly on play-action bootlegs and seam routes off motion. While the matchup is tough, his reliability on third downs and near the goal line should keep him involved throughout the night.

Suggested Play:

Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)

QB Patrick Mahomes

 

This game should be must-see TV. The Chiefs have been passing a ton and playing at a very fast pace. Also the Lions offense has looked really good scoring 34+ pts in 4 straight games. Give me the Chiefs @Home to win this one. Is the Mahomes we all missed officially back!

Best Bet: Chiefs -115 -115
Lean: Chiefs 'O' 26.5 Pts -135
Score Prediction Lions 24 Chiefs 27

Anytime TD Picks

Best Bet: (Lions) Amon-Ra St Brown +100

Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the heartbeat of Detroit’s passing attack, a volume monster who’s built his reputation on precision and consistency. Facing a Chiefs defense that plays two-high coverage on over 60% of snaps, St. Brown’s ability to find seams between safeties makes him a constant threat in the intermediate game. He’s been nearly unstoppable against both man and zone looks, ranking among the league leaders in yards per route run in both categories. Kansas City has quietly struggled against slot receivers, allowing over 840 yards from the position — the fourth-highest mark in the league. Expect Goff to rely on St. Brown heavily on third downs and in the red zone, where his body control and timing create separation even against tight coverage.

 

Best Bet (Chiefs): Travis Kelce +160

Travis Kelce remains the heartbeat of the Chiefs’ passing offense, and his chemistry with Mahomes is as strong as ever. He’s coming off a season-high in catches and targets, showing that even at age 35, he remains a difficult cover. The Lions have limited tight end yardage this season but have struggled to keep them out of the end zone, allowing the fifth-most touchdowns to the position. Detroit’s reliance on man coverage will put their linebackers and safeties in challenging one-on-one situations — matchups Kelce has historically dominated with leverage and route precision. Expect him to be heavily featured on third downs and in the red zone, where Mahomes’ trust in him remains unmatched. Even in a tough yardage environment, Kelce’s scoring potential is elite in this spot.

1st TD Picks

Best Bet (Lions): David Montgomery +640

David Montgomery continues to anchor the Lions’ ground game, bringing power and consistency between the tackles. Averaging over 13 touches per game and among the league leaders in red-zone carries, Montgomery’s bruising running style pairs perfectly with Detroit’s dominant offensive line. Kansas City has been solid but not elite against the run, giving up the 12th-most rushing yards per game and struggling to stuff inside zone runs at the line of scrimmage. Montgomery thrives in those zone looks, converting over 67% of such plays into successful gains. Expect Detroit to lean on him early to wear down the Chiefs’ defensive front and establish control of the game’s tempo. If the Lions move the ball efficiently, Montgomery is the most likely candidate to finish drives near the goal line.

 

Longshot: (Chiefs): Patrick Mahomes +1585

Patrick Mahomes has quietly become one of the NFL’s most dangerous red-zone runners, and this matchup against Detroit sets up perfectly for him to strike early with his legs. The Lions’ defensive front loves to collapse the pocket aggressively — they blitz at a top-10 rate and frequently vacate the middle of the field in man coverage. That aggressive approach leaves lanes open when Mahomes escapes contain, especially inside the 10-yard line, where linebackers are often turned around in coverage. Mahomes already averages a career-best 38 rushing yards per game this season and has logged at least one red-zone scramble in every contest. Expect Andy Reid to lean on play-action and rollout concepts to give Mahomes the option to tuck and run if the edge defenders bite on motion. With Detroit’s defense focused on Kelce and Worthy near the goal line, Mahomes slipping through for the first score of the game feels like the kind of statement play we’ve come to expect from him.

Parlay #1 (Lions) +505

Sam Laporta 'O' 4.5 Receptions

Jared Goff 'O' 1.5 Pass TDs

David Montgomery ATD

 

Parlay #2 (Chiefs) +630

Travis Kelce ATD
Patrick Mahomes 'O' 29.5 Rush Yards

Isiah Pacheco 'U' 33.5 Rush Yards