QB C.J. Stroud
Stroud was just okay in the Texans rout of the Steelers in the wild card matchup. He finished 21 of 32 for 250 yards, a touchdown and an interception. He added a carry for no yards and took 3 sacks. He struggled under pressure, but did enough for the win. Unfortunately, he’ll be without his top target this week, Nico Collins, after he suffered a concussion last week and he’ll likely face it again this week. New England holds the 10th highest pressure rate this season (39.6%) and the 4th most sacks this season (16). New England plays plenty of man coverage and with Christian Gonzalez likely to play that shouldn’t change. This season they have played man coverage at the 12th highest rate (27.9%). Nico Collins was Stroud’s go to guy against man coverage, but will likely have to distribute the ball around in this game. The Patriots play a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 2 defense. Stroud has been good against Cover 1 (8.32 yards per attempt, 108 passer rating and 5:1 TD to INT ratio), but has struggled against Cover 2 (6.91 yards per attempt, 76.2 passer rating and 0:2 TD to INT ratio). The Patriots got a ton of pressure on Herbert last week with an astounding 63.6% pressure rate and 13.6% sack rate. Creating pressure will be the name of the game against Stroud too, as his numbers drop significantly. Here are Stroud’s numbers in a clean pocket vs facing pressure: 71.3% vs 50.4% completion rate, 7.81 vs 5.90 yards per attempts and 106.0 vs 65.6 passer rating. This is not a good spot for Stroud and I’ll fade him in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-170)
‘U’ 215.5 Passing Yards (-110)

RB Woody Marks
Marks was really good last week in Pittsburgh. He finished the game with 19 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown. He also had a target but did not reel in a catch. Chubb was also involved (10 for 48), but was mainly inefficient. After missing last week, Jawhar Jordan looks to be returning too after logging a full practice on Friday. That certainly muddies the waters in this backfield a bit, but Marks should still get a majority of the carries. However, the matchup is brutal for him. New England is allowing the 6th fewest rushing yards per game (101.7), 20th highest yards per carry (4.21) and 19th highest explosive run rate (4.1%). However, they are allowing the second highest success rate (54.0%) and 4th lowest stuff rate (39.7%) I’m just not sure that Marks and this offense line will take advantage of that. Marks only holds a 46.4% success rate this season. Not to mention, the game script will likely not be as friendly as last week. He got a monster workload last week because the run game was working and they held a big lead. With a much different game script and the addition of Jordan, I’ll look to fade Marks here in a tough matchup. The Patriots are allowing the 4th fewest rushing attempts per game.

Suggested Pick
‘U’ 15.5 Carries (+106)
‘U’ 9.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Jayden Higgins
With no Nico Collins, Higgins likely moved into the WR1 role in this offense. Will he get the same volume Collins has had in the past? Absolutely not. Last week he was catchless in the entire first half. He finished the game with 3 catches for 39 yards on 4 targets. Stroud will likely look to spread the ball around so it’s tough to hone in on one receiver. Higgins mostly plays outside (78.2%) and New England has been middle of the road to good against outside wide receivers. They have allowed the 15th most receiving yards per game (96.8), 26th in catch rate (60.0%) and 22nd in yards per route run (1.86). I’m not sure that Gonzalez will shadow here, but Higgins will likely see him enough to matter. I don't think they will treat Higgins like the top receivers in this offense. Without Collins we’ve seen his reception line jump a point and I’ll happily fade it here.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-130)

WR Christian Krik
What a game from Kirk last week! He led the team with 8 catches on 9 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown. New England is good against outside wide receivers, so they must be weaker against slot wide receivers right? Well… not really. Kirk does play in the slot mostly (73.4%), but New England is only allowing the 24th most receiving yards to the slot per game (59.5), 24th yards per target (6.84) and 14th highest catch rate (71.6%). It’s great to finally see chemistry between Kirk and Stroud, but I’m not buying it as some major breakout. We now get a much more inflated line that I’m happy to fade.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions (-145)

TE Dalton Schultz
I’m fading everyone else, so let’s look to back someone in this offense! I was high on Schultz last week and he didn’t do much (3 catches on 4 targets for 12 yards). However, he gets a solid matchup to redeem himself here. Schultz plays mostly inline and out of the slot. He plays inline about 56% of the time and New England is allowing the 2nd highest catch rate from inline receivers this season. We won’t talk about how Pittsburgh is number 1… Overall, New England is allowing the 10th most targets per game (7.88), 11th most receptions (5.71) and 11th most receiving yards (57.1). Schultz is an integral part of this offense and is a great outlet for Stroud, especially under pressure. Schultz holds the 7th highest target rate among tight ends and New England is allowing the 7th highest yards per route run to tight ends. As primarily the second pass catcher in this offense (behind Nico Collins), he’s the one I’d be looking to back here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Drake Maye

During the regular season, Maye averaged 258.5 passing yards per game, 8.93 YPA and a 72% completion rate. He threw 31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. In his first playoff game, he completed 17 of 29 pass attempts for 268 passing yards and a touchdown. He also rushed 10 times for 66 yards. That’s his 2nd most rushing yards in a game in his career. He was excellent using his legs in college and expect the Patriots to lean on that more in the playoffs. He’ll face a Texans defense that ranks #1 in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 6th fewest passing yards per game (183.5). Houston blitzes at a bottom 5 rate (21%), yet still generates pressure at a top 7 rate (40.3%). Maye averages an elite 8.95 YPA and a 59.8% completion rate when pressured and not blitzed. The Texans top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (32.4%), Cover 4 (21.3%) and Cover 1 (19.5%). Maye averages an elite 9.96 YPA, a 75.1% completion rate and a 117.8 QB rating against these 3 coverages. In terms of the rushing matchup, the Texans have allowed the 13th most rushing yards per game to QB. Herbert rushed for 37 yards, Mahomes rushed for 59, Lawrence rushed for 35 and Nix rushed for 36 in this matchup. I’m hesitant to bet on passing yards against the Texans, but I like Maye to continue to use his legs.

Suggested Pick:

Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson/Treveyon Henderson

In the first playoff game against the Chargers, Stevenson had a 62% snap rate compared to Henderson’s 41%. Stevenson had 10 carries for 53 yards, while Henderson had 9 carries for 27 rushing yards. In the receiving game, Stevenson had a 57.5% route participation rate to Henderson’s 17.5%. It’s clear that coach Vrabel still leans on Rhamondre in big moments. We should expect a similar 60-40 split going forward in the playoffs, with Rhamondre handling almost all of the passing down work. They’ll face a Texans defense that ranks 10th best in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 4th fewest rushing yards per game (93.7). Against zone rush concepts, the Texans are allowing the 3rd fewest YPC (3.69) and the 3rd lowest success rate (42.5%). Against man/gap, they allow the 5th fewest YPC (3.56) and 3rd lowest success rate (43.6%). Both Treveyon and Rhamondre run man/gap around 60-65% of their attempts. Rhamondre is more efficient in man/gap, averaging 4.94 YPC compared to Henderson’s 4.61. Henderson is more efficient in zone concept, averaging 5.37 YPC compared to Rhamondre’s 4.19. In terms of the receiving matchup, the Texans allow the 13th most receiving yards per game as well as the 13th highest target share to RBs. Rhamondre has been excellent in the receiving game with 22+ receiving yards in 6 straight, I expect him to have success again this week.

Suggested Pick:

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-105)

WR Stefon Diggs

During the regular season, Diggs averaged 59.6 receiving yards per game, 2.53 YPRR and was targeted on 25% of his routes. He led the team in 1st-read rate at 22.1%. In the wild card game against the Chargers, Diggs caught just 2 of 5 targets for 16 receiving yards. He’ll face a Texans defense that ranks #1 in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 6th fewest receiving yards per game (183.5). Diggs has split his time out wide and in the slot (45.9% and 53.9%). The Texans allow the 9th most YPRR (1.93) and the 8th highest target share to the slot. They allow the 5th fewest YPRR (1.78) and the 9th lowest target share to wide alignment. Houston blitzes at a bottom 5 rate (21%), yet still generates pressure at a top 7 rate (40.3%). Diggs averages 1.58 YPRR and 13% TPRR when Maye is not blitzed but pressured. The Texans top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (32.4%), Cover 4 (21.3%) and Cover 1 (19.5%). Diggs averages 2.99 YPRR and 24% TPRR against these 3 coverages. Maye has spread the ball around, this game has just a 40.5 implied total and this is a brutal matchup, I lean under.

Suggested Pick:

Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-118) *Lean

TE Hunter Henry

During the regular season, Henry averaged 45.2 receiving yards per game, 1.73 YPRR, 19% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 18.5%. In the wild card round against the Chargers, Henry caught 3 of 5 targets for 64 yards and a touchdown. He’ll face a Texans defense that ranks #1 in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 6th fewest receiving yards per game (183.5). Henry has lined up out of the slot on 47% of his routes and inline on 34.3%. The Texans allow the 9th most YPRR (1.93) and the 8th highest target share to the slot. They allow the fewest YPRR (1.11) and the 15th lowest target share to inline. Houston blitzes at a bottom 5 rate (21%), yet still generates pressure at a top 7 rate (40.3%). Henry averages 1.26 YPRR and 13% TPRR when Maye is pressured and not blitzed. The Texans top 3 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (32.4%), Cover 4 (21.3%) and Cover 1 (19.5%). Henry averages 2.00 YPRR and 19% TPRR against the Texans top 3 coverages. Brutal matchup for Henry!

Suggested Pick:
Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

I can't fade the Patriots here. Stroud has looked awful and I get this Texans defense is good but I expect the Patriots to get great field position throughout this game.

Best Bet: Patriots -2.5 -135
Lean: Under 41.5 -120
Score Prediction Texans 14 Patriots 20

Anytime TD Scorer

Hunter Henry (Patriots) +170

Henry leads the Patriots with 21 redzone targets, the next closest player is Diggs with 12. Henry has 8 total touchdowns on the season and despite this being a brutal matchups for the entire offense, we are getting compensated decently with a +210 line.

Longshot (Texans): Dalton Schultz +245
Schultz hasn’t scored in the last three games. However, he gets a solid matchup to redeem himself here. Schultz plays mostly inline and out of the slot. He plays inline about 56% of the time and New England is allowing the 2nd highest catch rate from inline receivers this season. Overall, New England is allowing the 10th most targets per game (7.88), 11th most receptions (5.71) and 11th most receiving yards (57.1). Schultz is an integral part of this offense and is a great outlet for Stroud, especially under pressure. Schultz holds the 7th highest target rate among tight ends and New England is allowing the 7th highest yards per route run to tight ends. New England has allowed 6 touchdowns to tight ends this season.

First TD Scorer

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) +800

This is a brutal matchup for the entire Patriots offense, but the books are pricing that in with higher odds. I like Stevenson’s chances to get the bulk of the carries on the Patriots first possession and he also has a ton of upside in the receiving game as well, Henderson has not been getting much receiving work.

Longshot: (Texans): C.J. Stroud +3500
This truly is a longshot since I don’t think there will be a ton of touchdowns in this game. With the pressure that New England is likely going to bring, I can absolutely see Stroud using his legs in this game. Without Nico Collins, there isn’t an obvious pass catching choice and New England has only allowed 8 touchdowns to running backs this season.

Parlay #1 (Patriots) Fanduel +335

Rhamondre Stevenson 20+ Receiving Yards
Drake Maye 30+ Rushing Yards
Hunter Henry or Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown

Parlay #2 (Texans): +268 @ FanDuel
C.J. Stroud under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Woody Marks under 54.5 Rushing Yards
Dalton Schultz 30+ Receiving Yards

QB Matthew Stafford

There are many instances where the public is suckered into playing the over on a high point total, and this Sunday is going to be a perfect examply of that when the LA Rams visit Chicago in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. The books currently have this total set at 48.5, and while there isn't a lot on the surface that would indicate that either defense will be able to stop the other, there is a major intangible factor that each team will have to do deal with on Sunday. Matthew Stafford's passing yards line currently sits at 266.5, and while the Bears defense has allowed 300 passing yards or more to opposing QBs in their last 3 games, the weather is going to play a major factor in this game. We are expecting extremely cold and windy conditions at Soldier Field, with temperatures near 2-7 degress, and a wind chill factor below zero making this one of the coldest playoff games in NFL history. Everyone seems to be on the over with Stafford's passing yards, because of what he has done vs zone coverage and within a clean pocket. However, with significant injuries at linebacker and in the secondary, Dennis Allen has shifted to more of a man-heavy approach as of late. They utilized man coverage on 39.1% of their snaps last week against Green Bay. Stafford is still going to get time to throw, but his numbers vs man are significantly lower than that of zone coverage. Perhaps the biggest factor here is that Matthew Stafford has spent his entire career playing indoors at Detroit and now Los Angeles. Since joining the Rams he is just 1-9 in games below 20 degrees and his completion rate dips to around 55%. But that's not all. Matthew Stafford is also dealing with a sprained index finger on his throwing hand, which adds just another layer of difficulty to his grip and timing. When you add this to the frigid and windy conditions he will be dealing with, I'm going against the market and playing the under.

Suggested Bet:

Matthew Stafford u266.5 Pass Yards (-113)

RB Kyren Williams/Blake Corum

This is a great spot for both Kyren Williams and Blake Corum as Sean McVay has two running backs who can run all over the Bears defense this Sunday. Chicago allowed the 10th most rushing YPG (104.2) to opposing RBs this season. Most importantly as it plays into the strength of LA, they've allowed 1.6 YBC per carry against opposing designed runs this season (2nd most). The Bears contacted ball carriers at or behind the line of scrimmage on only 36.2% of those runs (3rd worst), and stuffed the run on just 14.5% of rushes (5th lowest). As I stated prior, this plays right into the strength of the Rams running game. Kyren Williams ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing success rate (51.4%) and Blake Corum (50.7%) is right behind him in 3rd. Kyren and Corum are expected to combine for at least 25+ carries, and considering the frigid and windy temperatures in Chicago will hit sub-zero level, this number could easily reach 30 or more. Corum is in his rookie season, but it's worth noting that Kyren Williams ran the ball 19 times for 106 yards last year in a cold and snowy road game at Philadelphia. When facing two-back sets this season, the Bears defense allowed the 3rd highest rushing success rate (50.0%) and 11th most YPC (4.4). Now, Sean McVay's team has employed two-back sets on only 7.3% of their offensive plays, but the Rams coach has already eluded to the fact he may go to this more considering the weather. This is important because LA's offense gained 5.6 YPC, while recording a 48.1% success rate on these looks. Stafford has a history of not performing well in cold weather and he's playing with a sprained index finger on this throwing hand. This should equal lots of work out of the backfield for Kyren and Corum.

Suggested Bet: 

Kyren/Corum 100+ Combined Rush Yards (-189)

Kyren/Corum 125+ ALT Combined Rush Yards (+135)

WR Puka Nacua

What Davante Adams did in the first half of the season, Puka Nacua nearly replicated in the second half. The Los Angeles star WR hauled in 6 touchdowns in his last five games of the regular season, and he also caught one this past Sunday the Rams win at Carolina in the Wild Card round. The third-year receiver has been one of Matthew Stafford's most trusted weapons, and his recent form in the end zone is a huge plus for LA. The weather will certainly be a factor in this Sunday's Divisional round matchup, but it's not going to completely prevent Sean McVay's offense from scoring. The Bears have allowed 20, count'em...twenty touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, that's tied for the 3rd most overall in the NFL. Despite the forecast for Soldier Field, the Rams still own the league's top passing offense behind QB Matthew Stafford. The production of Davante Adams in the end zone only sweetens this play all the more. Nacua had a career-high 1,317 receiving yards to go with 10 TDs in '25. In last week's playoff game against the Panthers, Puka saw an absurd 18 targets, and turned it into 10 catches for 111 yards and a TD. With wind gusts of 20 to 30 MPG expected for Sunday, I'm hesitant to mess with Nacua's production. That said, HC Sean McVay will find a way to get his biggest playmaker the ball on Sunday, and he can turn any play into a touchdown at anytime.

Suggested Bet:

Puka Nacua Anytime TD (-115)

WR Davante Adams

Davante Adams caught just 5 of his 13 targets in last week's Wild Card game vs the Panthers, and his last catch came on the Rams game-winning drive. Despite his touchdown total and seeing a ton of targets from QB Matthew Stafford, Adams has posted 5 or more catches in only seven games this season. This is largely due in part to the majority of his targets coming on deep, downfield throws from Stafford. The major wind factor, along with Stafford's sprained index finger on his throwing arm makes reaching this number even more of a challenge. Sean McVay will likely adjust the Rams offensive game plan to include more short, quick passes and this is not Davante's game. I'm telling you right now, these offensive numbers for the LAR are inflated, and it's because the average better pays no attention to intangible factors like the weather in Chicago, which is going to play a major role in this game on Sunday.

Suggested Bet:

Davante Adams u4.5 Receptions (-133)

TE Colby Parkinson

When you combine the sprained index finger on Matthew Stafford's throwing arm with freezing temperature's and brutal wind gusts, it's going to force Rams head coach Sean McVay to alter his game plan through the air, and this is where Colby Parkinson has insane value. The Bears defense ranks in the bottom half of the league vs tight ends, allowing nearly 50 receiving YPG. Parkinson has cleared this line in 8 of his past 10 games, and even though Tyler Higbee is back, Parkinson is still going to see 3 to 4 targets on Sunday. He is still playing on a snap rate of roughly 60%, which will ensure steady usage in a high volume offense. We're expecting more short to intermediate routes in this game, setting up Parkinson perfectly for another strong showing.

Suggested Bet:

Colby Parkinson o19.5 Rec Yards (-129)

QB Caleb Williams

What a massive comeback for the Bears and Caleb Williams in his first-ever playoff game. This week, he'll face his toughest task against a Rams defence that allows the 8th most completions (22.1) and 7th most pass attempts (34.5) per game, yet only the 13th most passing yards (232.9) and 14th most passing touchdowns (1.5). Los Angeles is heavily zone-based, running the 7th most zone coverage (76.4%) and the 7th most Cover 2 (18.6%). Against zone, Williams has the lowest completion percentage in the league (59.8%) with middle-tier yards per attempt (7.27) and QBR (87.3). The issues are magnified against Cover 2, where he, again, has the lowest completion percentage (56.2%) in the league, but add on the lowest yards per attempt (5.21), and 4th lowest in QBR (69.4) as well. The weather is projected to play a big factor, with winds up to 11 MPH and some potential snow. Who doesn't love a snow game? We like Williams to find the end zone twice in this matchup, as he has in five straight contests.

Suggested pick:

Caleb Williams o1.5 Passing TDs (+110)

RB D'Andre Swift

Last week wasn't a spectacular game, but a decent one for D'Andre Swift, where he rushed for 54 yards on 13 attempts, found the end zone, and added 38 receiving yards on two receptions. This week, he gets a Rams defence that allows the 13th fewest rush attempts (20.9) and 11th fewest rushing yards (88.5) per game. The Rams lean heavily on zone concepts, running zone at the 5th highest rate (51.4%), where they allow 4.59 yards per carry. Swift matches up well schematically, averaging an excellent 5.27 yards per carry against zone. Not only should Swift have a decent day schematic-wise, but also through the air, where the Rams allow the 7th most receptions (4.9) and the 5th most receiving yards (38.2) allowed to RBs.

Suggested Pick:

D'Andre Swift o69.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115)

WR DJ Moore

I swear, I try to get away from DJ Moore, but then he goes off like he did last week where he caught six of seven targets for 64 receiving yards and a TD – which held as the game-winner. The Rams allow the 10th fewest receptions (11.9) yet the 10th most receiving yards (150.8) per game. Moore has been more efficient against zone, posting 40 receptions on 63 targets for 574 yards with a 14.8% target share, compared to six catches on nine targets for 58 yards with an 11.8% target share against Cover 2. Luckily, Moore's strength is against zone, where he sees a higher catch rate (63.3%) and yards per route run (1.12), but yards per reception dip slightly (12.6). Moore plays primarily outside. The Rams allow the 12th highest target rate, a middle catch rate (61.7%), and the 4th highest yards per reception (14.63). Dare I say I kind of like a DJ Moore prop this week? Feel his reception prop os 2.5 is a little too low, especially in a snow game, where we might see the aDoT dip. Moore is averaging 3.4 receptions per game over the last five games.

Suggested pick:

DJ Moore o2.5 Receptions (-110)

WR Luther Burden

Luther Burden was slightly affected by Rome Odunze's return. He didn't see his full high-volume work rate, but still managed to catch three of his five targets for 42 receiving yards. We'll see how this is affected this week against a zone-heavy Rams team. Against zone, Burden has 36 receptions on 45 targets for 503 yards and a 12.1% target share, highlighted by an elite catch rate (84.6%) and yards per route run (3.17) compared to his man splits. Against Cover 2, Burden remains involved with six catches on eight targets for 50 yards and an 11.8% target share. Like Moore, Burden aligns out wide on 52.9% of his snaps, positioning him to take advantage of a similar defensive structure as his veteran peer. However, we want to see him do it again with Odunze in the fold before we fully put our trust back in him.

Suggested pick:

Pass

TE Colston Loveland

It has just been the Colston Loveland show over the past few weeks, including the best game of his career, catching eight of 15 targets for 137 receiving yards, but surprisingly did not find the end zone. The Rams pose as a decent matchup for the rookie TE, allowing the 15th most receptions (5.5) but the 7th fewest receiving yards (44.7) to the position. Against zone, Loveland has caught 42 passes on 59 targets for 579 yards with a 15.1% target share, with a higher catch rate (70.6%), yards per reception (12.8), and yards per route run (1.93). Against Cover 2, he’s remained reliable with eight catches on nine targets for 91 yards and a 12.5% share. He runs 42.7% of his snaps inline. The Rams are targeted at the 10th highest rate, allowing the 10th highest catch rate (81.4%) but the 7th lowest yards per reception (8.49). With how good he's been of late, we would be foolish to overlook him this week. Loveland is averaging 107.3 receiving yards per game over the last three weeks, and we get his line at nearly half for this matchup.

Suggested pick:

Colston Loveland o54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

A Bears win just feels like it's meant to be but this Rams team is TOUGH and will be ready to go. The Bears got down quick in that last game and that is something that has been a trend all season. If you get down early against the Rams it is going to be very tough to make another crazy comeback. The Rams are just the better team. The only edge the bears have is It's going to be a -3 real feel. Give me the better team 

Best Bet: Rams -2.5 -120
Lean: Under 48.5 -116
Score Prediction Rams 24 Bears 21

Anytime TD Scorer 

Best Play (Rams): Davante Adams -120

I'm not a huge proponent of Davante Adams receiving props given the weather circumstances, and he wasn't hugely effective in his comeback from injury last week against the Panthers. However, it's important to understand that his targets were still there, and the 33-year old still has the eye of Matthew Stafford. While I also like Puka Nacua to find the end zone, Adams has scored 14 touchdowns, and it's been three weeks since the last time he's found pay dirt. This is the longest streak Davante has gone without a TD since he moved to LA. I can't speak for the entire Rams team, but the frigid temperatures won't play a role on Sunday for Adams, who has played his fair share of cold weather games at Lambeau Field, when he was with the Green Bay Packers. And let's not forget, this is a Chicago Bears defense who has allowed 20 touchdowns (3rd most in NFL) to opposing WRs this season!

Best Pick: (Bears): DJ Moore TD (+320)

It just seems that DJ Moore has been a reliable scoring option when needed for this Bears team. He has four TDs in the last five games, including the game-winner last week, as mentioned. The Rams allow the 12th most receiving TDs (0.94) per game to opposing WRs.

First TD Scorer

Best Play (Rams): Davante Adams +500

Davante Adams hasn't scored a TD in his last 3 games and he will be itching to get into the end zone on Sunday. The LAR veteran WR has posted 14 touchdowns this year and he's a huge part of this offense inside the red zone and near the goal line. I'll say it one last time, the Bears have surrendered the 3rd most TDs to opposing wide receivers this season (20). Adams is the definition of an elite pass catcher, and even though I really like Nacua in this game, it's only fair to point out that Davante (32) has over double the amount of red zone targets to Puka (14) over the course of the season.

Parlay #1 (Rams) +350 DK

Matthew Stafford u266.5 Pass Yards

Davante Adams u4.5 Receptions

Colby Parkinson 15+ Rec Yards

Parlay 1: (Bears) +320 odds on bet365

Chicago Bears 2 Half TT o13.5

D'Andre Swift 50+ Rush & Receiving Yards

Colston Loveland 50+ Receiving Yards

QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen completed 28 of 35 passes for 273 passing yards and a touchdown in a wild card matchup against the Jags. He also ran 11 times for 33 yards and 2 rushing TDs. In the regular season, Allen  averaged 215.8 passing yards per game, 7.97 YPA and a 69.3% completion rate. He threw for 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Josh will face a Broncos defense that ranks 7th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th fewest passing yards per game (187.2). The Broncos have blitzed at the 5th highest rate (32.1%) and have the 2nd highest pressure rate (43.1%). When blitzed, Josh averages 8.49 YPA, a 65.4% completion rate and a 98.7 QB rating. When pressured, he averages 7.31 YPA, a 50% completion rate and a 70.2 QB rating. The Broncos play man coverage at a top 4 rate (36.1%). Josh Allen has negative splits against man coverage, averaging 6.95 YPA, a 61.2% completion rate, and an 85.9 QB rating. From a running matchup perspective, the Broncos have allowed the 7th most rushing yards per game to QB. Josh tends to use his legs more in big games. He’s averaging 10 rush attempts for 47.3 rushing yards per game and 1.2 TDs per game in 6 playoff games. That compares to 7 rush attempts for 36.2 rushing yards and 0.9 TDs per game during the regular season. A tough matchup but I like his anytime TD.

Suggested Pick:

Anytime Touchdown (-105)

2+ Touchdowns (+600)

RB James Cook

James Cook led the league in rushing yards this regular season and averaged 95.4 rushing yards per game on 5.25 YPC. He had 12 rushing touchdowns. Cook was held in check during the wild card round, rushing 15 times for just 46 yards against the Jags. He’ll try to get back on track against a Broncos rush defense that ranks 7th best in EPA/Rush and has allowed the 2nd fewest rushing yards per game (91.1). The Broncos are specifically tough against zone concept runs, allowing the 2nd fewest YPC (3.62) and the 8th lowest success rate (45.8%). That compares to the 12th fewest YPC (4.09) and the 15th lowest success rate (49.1%) against man/gap. Cook has a 50-50 split between the 2 concepts, averaging 5.48 YPC and a 59.6% success rate in zone concept, compared to 5.01 YPC and a 53.8% success rate in man/gap, bearish schematic splits. The Broncos have also allowed the 3rd lowest explosive run rate (2.8%).  Cook has a respectable 5.2% explosive run rate but may be difficult to break one in this matchup. The Broncos also force the 5th highest pass rate over expected, meaning offenses tend to attack them via the air. This could be another spot where Cook sees lower than typical volume and less productivity.

Suggested Pick:

Under 76.5 Rush Yards (-114)

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir averaged 4.5 receptions, 5.9 targets and 44.9 receiving yards per game this regular season. He was targeted on 23% of his routes and led the team in 1st-read rate at 23.5%. Shakir was peppered with targets in the wild card matchup against the Jags. He caught 12 of 12 targets for 82 yards. He had an insane 41.7% 1st-read rate. Shakir will face a Broncos defense that ranks 7th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th fewest receiving yards per game (187.2). On the season, Shakir has lined up from the slot on 69.1% of his routes. The Broncos allow the 5th highest target share (32.7%) and the 14th most receiving yards per game to the slot (72.6). The Broncos have blitzed at the 5th highest rate (32.1%) and have the 2nd highest pressure rate (43.1%). Shakir averages 2.11 YPRR, 20% TPRR and a 19.1% 1st-read rate when Allen is blitzed. The Broncos play man coverage at a top 4 rate (36.1%). Shakir has negative splits against man coverage, averaging 1.67 YPRR and 22% TPRR. That compares to 1.93 YPRR and 23% TPRR against zone. Shakir’s top routes in terms of targets are screen (20), shallow cross (14), slant (13), and flat (12). The Broncos allow the 2nd most receptions on the season to these 4 routes. We were all over Shakir’s receptions last week against a Jags defense that has allowed the most receptions on the season to these 4 routes. However, we were getting a 4.5 receptions line at (-109), now we’re getting a 5.5 receptions line juiced over. The line feels efficient, I wouldn’t touch it.

Suggested Pick:

Pass

TE Dalton Kincaid

In the regular season, Kincaid averaged 47.6 receiving yards per game, 3.19 YPRR, was targeted on 27% of his routes and had a 1st-read rate of 17.3%. The only knock on Kincaid has been that he’s only run a route on 44.2% of dropbacks. After missing some time with an injury, Kincaid ran a route on 56.4% of dropbacks in the wild card matchup against the Jags. Kincaid will face a Broncos defense that ranks 7th best in EPA/Pass and has allowed the 7th fewest receiving yards per game (187.2). The Broncos allow the 8th most receiving yards per game to TEs on the season. Kincaid primarily lines up from the slot, at a 52.2% rate. The Broncos allow the 5th highest target share (32.7%) and the 14th most receiving yards per game to the slot (72.6). The Broncos have blitzed at the 5th highest rate (32.1%) and have the 2nd highest pressure rate (43.1%). Kincaid averages 3.36 YPRR and 26% TPRR against the blitz. The Broncos play man coverage at a top 4 rate (36.1%). Kincaid averages 2.19 YPRR and 26% TPRR against man, which are all negative splits but the highest amongst the BUF starting skill players. Kincaid’s top 3 routes in terms of targets are hitch (9), go (8) and in (8). The Broncos have allowed the 3rd fewest receptions and 4th fewest YPRR (1.56) to these 3 routes. Despite this, I think his first quarter receiving yards is worth a bet.

Suggested Pick:

Over 3.5 1Q Receiving Yards (-113)

QB Bo Nix

After enjoying watching football during the bye week, Bo Nix and the Broncos are back in action, ready to redeem themselves against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season, the Buffalo Bills – but they're a tough matchup. The Bills defence allows the fewest completions (16.3), 2nd-fewest pass attempts (27.2), fewest passing yards (170.2), and 6th-fewest passing touchdowns (1.1) per game to opposing QBs. Unfortunately, the Bills run league average in both man and zone coverage, so there is no edge in zoning in on Nix's numbers. However, they do heavily rely on Cover 6, running that coverage at the 8th highest rate (12.3%) in the NFL. Against Cover 6, Nix has been accurate but conservative, posting a middle-tier completion percentage (71.4%) paired with the fourth-lowest yards per attempt (5.87) and a middle QBR (86.1). Where we like Nix to have an impact this week, however, is with his legs. Last season in the playoffs against the Bills, Nix had 43 rushing yards on just four attempts. And this season, the Bills continue to struggle against rushing QBs, allowing the 5th most rushing yards (21.7) to opposing QBs. We could see a repeat of the last playoff match, where Nix struggled through the air and needed to rely on his legs to move his offence down the field.

Suggested pick:

Bo Nix o24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB RJ Havey

RJ Harvey has a fantastic matchup in his playoff debut this week against a Bills rush defence that allows the 16th most rush attempts (21.6) and 6th-most rushing yards (107.7) per game to opposing RBs. Buffalo runs more zone concept (48%) than man/gap (34.4%). However, it doesn't really matter what coverage they run, as they allow 5.03 yards per carry against zone and 5.08 yards per carry against man/gap. Harvey doesn't have the ideal profile against either coverage, but still averages a respectable 3.86 yards per carry against zone and 3.9 yards per carry against man. When it's not working on the ground for Harvey, he's shown he can get it done through the air. But it might be difficult this week as the Bills allow the 10th fewest receptions (3.9) and the 6th fewest receiving yards (25) per game to opposing backs. The matchup is just too good to ignore what Harvey can do on the ground here.

Suggested Pick:

RJ Harvey o57.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton gets his first home playoff game in his eight-year career in Denver. He gets a difficult Bills defence that allows the 5th-fewest receptions (9.7) and 3rd-fewest receiving yards (115.6) per game to opposing WRs. Against Cover 6 specifically, Sutton has produced just seven receptions on nine targets for 89 yards with a modest 12.9% target share. He aligns almost exclusively out wide, logging 81.8% of his snaps there, against a defence that allows the 2nd-lowest target rate, 11th-highest catch rate (64%), and 7th-lowest yards per reception (12.52). The matchup is difficult, but if the game starts to go wrong for the Broncos, they would rely heavily on their most veteran receivers.

Suggested pick:

Courtland Sutton o54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Pat Bryant

Pat Bryant’s role against the Bills projects as secondary and situational, especially considering the Broncos just elevated Elijah Moore, a typical slot receiver, who used to play for the Bills earlier this season. Against Cover 6, he has caught all three of his targets for 35 yards, but that production has come with a miniscule 5.2% target share. Bryant runs the majority of his routes from the slot, where he will now have to compete for snaps with Moore, lining up inside on 57.8% of his routes, where he'll face a Bills defence that is targeted at a middle-of-the-pack rate but the 3rd lowest in catch rate allowed (62.1%) with middle-of-the-pack yards per reception (10.8). We aren't expecting the rookie, whose alignment is now even more crowded, to have a big game in what is already a tough matchup.

Suggested pick:

Pass

TE Evan Engram

This is going to be a tough matchup for Engran. He draws the most difficult TE matchup, as the Bills allow the fewest receptions (2.7) and the fewest receiving yards (29.7) per game to the position. To the inline position, to which Engram runs most of his routes out of (42.6%), the Bills are targeted at the lowest rate, allow the lowest catch rate (64.3%), and the 10th lowest yards per reception (8.94) per game. Despite that, Engram has been the primary option against Cover 6, catching seven of 11 targets for 63 yards and leading the team with a 15.9% target share against the coverage. It hasn't been a good season for the first-year Bronco TE, and that won't continue this week, either.

Suggested pick:

Evan Engram u2.5 Receptions (-110)

I feel bad for Josh Allen and if they want to win this game he is going to have to put his body on the line again. The Broncos defensively have been really good and now getting that extra rest will help tremendously. The Bills defense has been bad this year as well. I'll be cheering for Allen and the path to victory for them is a grind it out type of game. Give me the Under and the Bills to score below 23.5 points

Best Bet: Under 46.5 -125
Lean: Bills TT 'U' 23.5 -130
Score Prediction Bills 17 Broncos 23

Anytime Touchdown: 

Josh Allen (BUF) -105

Josh has scored a touchdown in 9 of 17 games this season and in 7 of 11 in games with a -7 to +2.5 spread (currently +1.5). He’s also scored in 4 of 6 playoff games with 6 total TDs. This is to say that in big moments, Josh uses his legs more. Like the chances for Josh to play hero ball here and to force his team into the endzone.

Best Pick: (Broncos): RJ Harvey TD (-135)

Since Week 7 (11 games), Harvey has scored 11 total TDs, averaging one per game. That includes six TDs in his last six games. This week, he gets a Bills defence that allows the most rushing TDs (1.06) per game to opposing RBs this season.

1st Touchdown:

Josh Allen (BUF) +650

Same analysis as anytime. Josh uses his legs more in big spots. He has just 1 first quarter touchdown this season but I like the value here at +650.

Parlay #1 (Bills) +1099

Josh Allen 2+ Anytime Touchdowns
James Cook Under 76.5 Rushing Yards

Parlay 1: (Broncos) +250 odds on bet365

Bo Nix 20+ Rushing Yards

RJ Harvey 50+ Rushing Yards

Courtland Sutton 40+ Receiving Yards

QB Brock Purdy

Purdy helped engineer one of the biggest Wild Card upsets of the weekend, overcoming pressure and turnovers to eliminate Philadelphia. He’s now accounted for multiple touchdowns in 8 of his last 10 games and has topped 260 passing yards in four straight contests, signaling continued volume even in tougher matchups. Seattle leaned heavily on Cover 1 and Cover 6 in the regular-season finale, coverages that have historically limited Purdy’s efficiency (7.02 YPA, +4.7% CPOE) but not necessarily his scoring output. While the Seahawks finished top-12 in passing yards allowed and top-10 in passing TDs allowed per game, they’ve still surrendered multiple passing touchdowns in 4 of their last 7 games, including postseason-adjacent matchups. With San Francisco unlikely to lean purely run-heavy against Seattle’s front, Purdy should again be asked to distribute and finish drives through the air.

Suggested Play: 

‘O’ 1.5 Passing TD (+120)

RB Christian McCaffery

CMC once again served as the focal point of the offense against Philadelphia, leading all players in touches while accounting for two receiving touchdowns. He’s now scored in 7 of his last 8 games and has logged 13 performances of 22.7+ total yards and scoring involvement this season. Seattle’s run defense remains stout on paper — top-5 in adjusted yards before contact and rushing yards allowed — but that strength funnels production into the short passing game, where McCaffrey remains elite. His six receptions against Seattle in Week 18 came despite one of his lowest rushing totals of the year, reinforcing that he remains matchup-proof when the 49ers are forced to adjust.

Suggested Play:

Anytime Touchdown (-155)

WR Jauan Jennings

Jennings’ recent scoring run masks a meaningful decline in volume. He’s seen 5 or fewer targets in 5 of his last 6 games, and he finished the Wild Card Round with just 3 targets despite playing nearly every snap. Seattle’s perimeter defense allowed the fewest receiving yards per game (76.4) and ranked top-10 in limiting explosive plays to outside receivers. In two meetings this season, Jennings totaled 6 receptions for 51 yards combined, and the Seahawks’ Cover 1 / Cover 6 mix consistently forces throws away from secondary outside options. With McCaffrey and the tight ends expected to absorb a large share of short-area usage, Jennings’ path to volume remains narrow unless he scores.

Suggested Play:

‘U’ 40.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

WR Ricky Pearsall

Pearsall’s potential return adds an important vertical element back into the offense after missing two games with a knee injury. In his last two healthy appearances, he posted 5+ receptions, 85+ yards, and 7+ targets in both outings, indicating that his role was trending upward before the setback. Seattle’s perimeter defense is disciplined, but Pearsall’s usage differs from Jennings’ — he’s more likely to be schemed touches off play-action and motion, especially early in drives. Even if his snap count is slightly managed, his route depth gives him immediate chunk-play upside in a game where explosive plays could be scarce.

Suggested Play:

 ‘O’ 14.5 Longest Reception (-120)

TE Jake Tonges

With George Kittle sidelined, Tonges steps into a role that historically produces early red-zone opportunities in this offense. When San Francisco operates inside the 10-yard line without Kittle, their tight ends become a primary read off play-action and boot concepts, especially against defenses that lean man coverage like Seattle. The Seahawks deployed Cover 1 and Cover 6 at a combined 50% rate in the most recent meeting, looks that naturally stress linebackers and safeties in tight spaces and open throwing windows to the tight end on quick hitters and leak routes. Tonges has already shown comfort in this role, scoring and posting 7/60/1 when filling in earlier this season, and he’s consistently been on the field in early-script drives when the 49ers are most likely to lean into scripted red-zone plays. With Christian McCaffrey commanding defensive attention near the goal line and Seattle likely prioritizing him on first-and-goal situations, Tonges profiles as a high-leverage target off misdirection rather than volume.

Suggested Play: 

First TD (+1155)

QB Sam Darnold
Darnold and the Seahawks come off the first round bye well rested to play a beat up 49ers team. However, Darnold did exit practice on Thursday after suffering an oblique injury. Unsurprisingly, he has said that he plans to play. The Seahawks and 49ers have seen each other plenty as division rivals and they face off for the 3rd time this season Saturday night. The truth is, Darnold didn’t do much in each of the first two meetings, which bookended the season. In week 1, he completed 16 of 23 passes for 150 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. In week 18, he completed 20 of 26 passes for 198 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. He’s only thrown zero passing touchdowns five times this season and two came against this defense. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a run-heavy approach once again from Seattle if it’s working, but this matchup sets up well for Darnold if they throw enough. SF continues to struggle getting pressure. The 49ers rank 30th in pressure rate this season. Darnold holds the 4th highest passer grading when having a clean pocket. With the time that SF allows quarterbacks to operate, they’ve been a good pass funnel defense. They are allowing the 2nd most completions (23.4) per game, 8th most passing attempts (34.4) and 10th most yards (241.8). San Francisco's defense is also allowing the 5th highest completion rate (68.3%). Despite sub-par outings in the regular season meetings with the 49ers, I think we could see more passing volume from Darnold in this game.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 19.5 Completions (-105)

RB Kenneth Walker III
Walker heads into this matchup still as the RB1a in this offense. He had mixed results between the two games against San Francisco this season. In week 1, he carried the ball 10 times for 20 yards, adding 3 catches for 4 yards. In week 18 he had much better results, carrying the ball 16 times for 97 yards, while adding four catches for 36 yards. This entire Seattle rushing offense has seemingly started to find their rhythm to close out the regular season. Walker remains the most explosive runner in the backfield, wielding a 8.1% explosive run rate, compared to Charbonnet’s 4.9%. Despite a lower success rate, Walker has been a really good zone concept runner this season. He’s averaging 5.02 yards per carry compared to just 4.17 in man/gap schemes. San Franscico struggled at defending zone runs, allowing the 3rd highest yards per carry this season (4.83) and highest success rate allowed (56.4%). The 49ers have done a decent job at preventing explosive runs (18th in explosive run rate allowed), but we saw Walker and Charbonnet break off a few long runs in week 18 when they compiled a combined 171 rushing yards. Walker has been involved in the passing game in each of the two meetings this season with at least 3 catches in both. I think they’ll use him out of the backfield as a receiver once again.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Receptions (-140)
‘O’ 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

RB Zach Charbonnet
Charbonnet is also coming off a stellar week against this 49ers defense. He rushed 17 times for 74 yards and a touchdown. After starting the season as one of the league’s most inefficient runners, Charbonnet has been much better in the second half. Over the final two weeks of the regular season, he amassed 184 rushing yards on 35 attempts and 3 touchdowns. He’s even added a little in the passing game with 5 catches over the final two. Unlike Walker, Charbonnet did find some success in week one against this 49ers defense. He rushed 12 times for 47 yards and a touchdown. He continues to be the preferred red zone back in this offense. Over the final 4 weeks, Charbonnet has out-touched Walker in the red zone 18 to 3. There is no reason that should change here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Anytime Touchdown (-110)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba finished off a truly stellar season with 6 catches on 8 targets for 84 yards on this 49ers defense. He just fell shy of 1,800 yards, which led the league, and finished with 119 receptions (4th) and 10 touchdowns. There is no doubt that this 49ers defense will look to slow JSN down in this game. However, the matchup suits him well. He’ll likely see a lot of Renardo Green again and JSN has been targeted on 14 of his 28 career routes against him (50% target rate). The 49ers just allow a lot of volume through the air. THey have allowed the 2nd most receptions this season (398) and 5th highest catch rate (72.6%). They are more susceptible to allowing underneath receptions (18th highest yards per target). I think both of his receiving lines are reasonable, but I like his receptions more given the matchup. Over his final three games, JSN is averaging 7.7 receptions per game. He owns an insane 45% first read rate and they aren’t afraid to move him around and use him in the screen game to get the ball in his hands. Darnold has shown us this season and in the past that he’s more than willing to hyper focus on his top option and I think we see that here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (-102)

WR Rashid Shaheed
How could we possibly trust this man? After having a couple of nice games against Atlanta (4 catches for 67 yards) and Indy (5 catches for 74 yards), he has become extremely quiet. Over his last 3 games, he’s only managed 2 catches for 10 yards on 3 targets. YIKES. He hasn’t had more than a single target in each of the last 3. At this point he’s much more valuable in the return game and it hasn’t worked out like Seattle envisioned, which will likely result in him walking as a free agent this offseason. With Tory Horton done for the season ,he should still see the routes but I’m not looking to back him even in a decent matchup.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE A.J. Barner
Barner was quiet in the season finale against this 49ers defense. He finished with just a pair of catches on three targets for 14 yards. He was also very quiet in week 1 with a single catch on two targets for no yards. What is strange is that San Francisco is a good matchup for tight ends, especially given how banged up their linebacking core is. They have allowed the 3rd most targets (8.59), 9th most receptions (5.82) and 13th most receiving yards (56.9) per game. Barner has put a solid season together with 52 catches for 519 yards and 6 touchdowns. He’s averaging 10 yards per receptions and plays mostly inline (83.4%). With Barner playing a lot inline, he ranks 2nd among tight ends in inline receiving yards. The 49ers rank 4th in most receiving yards to inline receivers this season. I think that Seattle will try and run, especially if they have the lead here. Given the history this season against this team, it’s tough to back Barner even in a good matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-135)

This 49ers defense has looked better the last few games and held this Seattle offense to 13 points in Week 18. It's such as tough game that could go eithier way. 

Best Bet: Any team to score 30+ Points (NO) -150
Lean: 49ers +7.5 -120
Score Prediction 49ers 20 Seattle 24

Anytime Touchdown: 

Best Bet (Seahawks): Zach Charbonnet +100
Not going to overthink this one too much. Charbonnet has been the primary red zone back in this offense with Walker working more in between the twenties. Over the final 4 weeks, Charbonnet has out-touched Walker in the red zone 18 to 3. In each game against the 49ers this season he has scored a touchdown and Walker played in both of those games too. This SF defense has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns this season to opposing running backs. Giddy up!

Best Bet (49ers): Christian McCaffery Anytime TD -155

CMC once again served as the focal point of the offense against Philadelphia, leading all players in touches while accounting for two receiving touchdowns. He’s now scored in 7 of his last 8 games and has logged 13 performances of 22.7+ total yards and scoring involvement this season. Seattle’s run defense remains stout on paper — top-5 in adjusted yards before contact and rushing yards allowed — but that strength funnels production into the short passing game, where McCaffrey remains elite. His six receptions against Seattle in Week 18 came despite one of his lowest rushing totals of the year, reinforcing that he remains matchup-proof when the 49ers are forced to adjust.

1st Touchdown: 

Best Bet (Seahawks): Zach Charbonnet +600
We’ve already discussed why I like Charbonnet to score so we won’t spend a lot more time on that. However, what if I also told you he scored the first team touchdown for Seattle in both games against San Francisco this season? Crazy, right! It only makes sense to back him in the first touchdown column as well.

Longshot (49ers) Jake Tonges First TD +1155

With George Kittle sidelined, Tonges steps into a role that historically produces early red-zone opportunities in this offense. When San Francisco operates inside the 10-yard line without Kittle, their tight ends become a primary read off play-action and boot concepts, especially against defenses that lean man coverage like Seattle. The Seahawks deployed Cover 1 and Cover 6 at a combined 50% rate in the most recent meeting, looks that naturally stress linebackers and safeties in tight spaces and open throwing windows to the tight end on quick hitters and leak routes. Tonges has already shown comfort in this role, scoring and posting 7/60/1 when filling in earlier this season, and he’s consistently been on the field in early-script drives when the 49ers are most likely to lean into scripted red-zone plays. With Christian McCaffrey commanding defensive attention near the goal line and Seattle likely prioritizing him on first-and-goal situations, Tonges profiles as a high-leverage target off misdirection rather than volume.

Parlay #1: (49ers) +430

Christian McCaffery ATD

Ricky Pearsall ‘O’ 14.5 Yard Longest Reception

Jauan Jennings ‘U’ 40.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay #2: (Seahawks) +330
SEA Seahwks -6.5
Zach Charbonnet TD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 6+ Receptions